Olympiad beginning on the opening of the Olympic Games for the summer sports. The first modern Olympiad began in 1896, the second in 1900, and so on (the 31st began in 2016: see the Olympic Charter). The ancient and modern Olympiads would have synchronised had there been a year zero between the Olympiad of 4 BC and the one of 4 AD. But as the Gregorian calendar goes directly from 1 BC to 1 AD, the ancient Olympic cycle now lags the modern cycle by one year. An ancient Olympiad was a period of four years grouped together, counting inclusively as
Return period interest and formula_5 is the counting rate. If the return period of occurrence is 1 in 234 years (formula_5 = 0.0043) then the probability of no occurrence in ten years is In a given period of "n" years, the probability of a given number "r" of events of a return period formula_5 is given by the binomial distribution as follows. In the limit of :formula_11, such that formula_12 then Take where Given that the return period of an event is 100 years, So the probability that such an event occurs "exactly once" in 10 successive years is: Return period is