Insensitivity to sample size about 45 babies are born each day, and in the smaller hospital about 15 babies are born each day. As you know, about 50% of all babies are boys. However, the exact percentage varies from day to day. Sometimes it may be higher than 50%, sometimes lower. For a period of 1 year, each hospital recorded the days on which more than 60% of the babies born were boys. Which hospital do you think recorded more such days? 56% of subjects chose option 3, and 22% of subjects respectively chose options 1 or 2. However, according to sampling theory the
Palace of the Babies is prepared to name such a belief a "fiction", as in "Asides on the Oboe" (1940). <poem> The prologues are over. It is a question, now, Of final belief. So, say that final belief Must be in a fiction. It is time to choose. </poem> Bates reads this as an extreme voluntarism that sanctions believing what one knows to be false, but a less tendentious reading would reject classification of such beliefs as true or false. Rather, they are informed by the perspective revealed by the poet's imagination. A more appropriate binary than true/false is insightful/not-insightful. Palace of the Babies