Frequency of exceedance any peak exceeding is . Its complement, is the probability of exceedance, the probability that has been exceeded at least once by time . This probability can be useful to estimate whether an extreme event will occur during a specified time period, such as the lifespan of a structure or the duration of an operation. If is small, for example for the frequency of a rare event occurring in a short time period, then Under this assumption, the frequency of exceedance is equal to the probability of exceedance per unit time, , and the probability of exceedance can be computed
Welfare cost of business cycles output gap. Under this viewpoint, the welfare cost of business cycles is larger, because an economy with cycles not only suffers more variable consumption, but also lower consumption on average. If we consider two consumption paths, each with the same trend and the same initial level of consumption – and as a result same level of consumption per period on average – but with different levels of volatility, then, according to economic theory, the less volatile consumption path will be preferred to the more volatile one. This is due to risk aversion on part of individual agents. One way to