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Bottom: The spread of National Hurricane Center multi-model ensemble forecast. Ensemble forecasting is a numerical weather prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system.
Source Four ERS. Ellipsoidal reflector spotlight or 'Profile Spot' (abbreviated to ERS, or colloquially ellipsoidal, ellipse, or Leko and known as Profile in the UK) is the name for a type of stage lighting instrument, named for the ellipsoidal reflector used to collect and direct the light through a barrel that contains a lens or lens train.