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Bottom: The spread of National Hurricane Center multi-model ensemble forecast. Ensemble forecasting is a numerical weather prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system.
According to the relationship of the system to the rest of the universe, one of three general types of ensembles may apply, in order of increasing complexity: 1  Microcanonical ensemble: describes a completely isolated system, having constant energy, as it does not exchange energy or mass with the rest of the universe.