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The Congressional Budget Office says that federal spending for major health care programs and Social Security are on track to 14 percent of the gross domestic product by 2038, twice the 7 percent average of the past 40 years.
Specifically, CBO estimates that federal spending for Medicaid will be 2.2 percent of GDP in 2023, an increase of about one-fifth from its 1.8 percent level in 2011. Provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will contribute to that growth by expanding eligibility for the program in states that choose to participate.