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The Congressional Budget Office says that federal spending for major health care programs and Social Security are on track to 14 percent of the gross domestic product by 2038, twice the 7 percent average of the past 40 years.
That's 12 percent of all federal welfare spending and about 6 percent of the whole federal budget. Once you account for the fact that some of these program dollars go to the working poor, you end up with CBPP's estimate of 10 percent, or about 5 percent of the whole federal budget.