climate_bot_val
State one of the climatic changes that can cause loss of crop.
changes in the ranges of agricultural pests and diseases with warming winters, and infestations
Mention some implication of climatic changes on agriculture
serious implications for food production, processing, and distribution
climate change has serious implications for food production, processing, and distribution. although some models of the eff ect of climate change on food production suggest that global grain production might not change much, at least in the medium term, with decreases in low latitudes being off set by increases at high latitudes, the distributional eff ects have major consequences for poor people. according to some scenarios, 20-40 poor and food-insecure countries with a total population of 1-3 billion people could lose on average 10-20% of their cereal production by the 2080s.35 additionally, changes in the ranges of agricultural pests and diseases with warming winters, and infestations associated with extremes (eg, droughts favour locust, whitefl ies, and aphids), could precipitate extensive losses of crop yields.36
How were the research data obtained? They were obtained from a survey of 452 agricultural households in three districts of the Zone in 2011/2012
the data for the research was obtained from a survey of 452 farm households in three districts of the zone in 2011/2012
The survey includes which districts include Yaya Gullele, Hidha Abote and Derra
the data for the research was obtained from a survey of 452 farm households in three districts of the zone in 2011/2012. the districts include yaya gullele, hidha abote and derra
How were the specific study sites selected? They were selected based on a multi-stage random sampling procedure
the specific study sites within the districts were selected based on a multi stage random sampling procedure
the data for the research was obtained from a survey of 452 farm households in three districts of the zone in 2011/2012. the districts include yaya gullele, hidha abote and derra. the specific study sites within the districts were selected based on a multi stage random sampling procedure. consequently, 19 kebeles were selected from which the sample households were selected randomly proportional to population size. a structured questionnaire was used to interview the farmers. data collected from the farmers include household characteristics, landholding, crops and livestock production, disaster occurrence, perception level (on precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, air moisture and wind direction), adaptation strategies pursued, different coping strategies pursued, level of resilience, and other relevant information. in addition, secondary data relevant for this analysis was obtained from the national meteorological service agency (nmsa), central statistical authority (csa), and zonal and district agricultural offices. in order to understand the research questions at community level, qualitative data were collected through focused group discussion using checklist prepared for the purpose.
What are the two stages in analysis ?
we obtained location-specific estimates of temperature- mortality associations from a two-stage time series analysis, as previously described.16 briefly, in the first stage, we performed a quasi-poisson regression separately in each location, controlling for season, long-term trends, and day of the week. we modelled the non-linear and delayed exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and mortality with a distributed lag non-linear model, applying a bidimensional cross-basis spline function with 21 days of lag
How does  temperature and mortality related to ?
e modelled the non-linear and delayed exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and mortality with a distributed lag non-linear model, applying a bidimensional cross-basis spline function with 21 days of lag
What are the of meta-predictors to capture part of the heterogeneity across locations ?
n the second stage, we pooled the reduced estimates of the overall cumulative exposure-response curves using a multivariate meta-regression.20 we included a set of meta-predictors to capture part of the heterogeneity across locations: specifically indicators for region, indicators for climate classification,21 country-level gross domestic product per capita, and location-specific average and range of temperature. we then derived the best linear unbiased prediction of the overall cumulative exposure-response association in each location, expressed as relative risk
we obtained location-specific estimates of temperature- mortality associations from a two-stage time series analysis, as previously described.16 briefly, in the first stage, we performed a quasi-poisson regression separately in each location, controlling for season, long-term trends, and day of the week. we modelled the non-linear and delayed exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and mortality with a distributed lag non-linear model, applying a bidimensional cross-basis spline function with 21 days of lag.19 we replaced the quadratic b-spline for the exposure-response relationship used in the previous analysis with a natural cubic spline, which allows a log-linear extrapolation beyond the observed temperature range. in the second stage, we pooled the reduced estimates of the overall cumulative exposure-response curves using a multivariate meta-regression.20 we included a set of meta-predictors to capture part of the heterogeneity across locations: specifically indicators for region, indicators for climate classification,21 country-level gross domestic product per capita, and location-specific average and range of temperature. we then derived the best linear unbiased prediction of the overall cumulative exposure-response association in each location, expressed as relative risk.
What is shown in the table in Figure 5?
the table in figure 5 shows that, as in our first two policy options, the regional variation for an average household is quite small
What is the national average loss for households in the bottom two deciles?
the national average loss for households in the bottom two deciles is $342 per year, or 3.35 percent of income
Where the highest average loss for this group occured?
the highest average loss for this group occurs in the ohio valley, at $421, or 4.07 percent of income, and the lowest is in california, at $322, or 3.06 percent
the table in figure 5 shows that, as in our first two policy options, the regional variation for an average household is quite small. in addition, the regional variation for poor households is not as pronounced as it was in the previous two policies. the national average loss for households in the bottom two deciles is $342 per year, or 3.35 percent of income. the highest average loss for this group occurs in the ohio valley, at $421, or 4.07 percent of income, and the lowest is in california, at $322, or 3.06 percent. this is a dollar range of only $99, compared with a range of $273 for the taxable cap-and-dividend scenario. this is mainly a result of the smaller amount of money going back to these lower income households in this scenario and some regional differences in income and income taxes paid.
what is the impact on London
table 2. studies relating to climate change impacts and adaptation: london new york
what is the coverage area
coverage is invariably partial
what do you discuss
we discuss the series of studies undertaken for london and new york
as table 1 indicates, the most quantitatively advanced studies of city-scale climate change impacts are those on london, new york, boston and los angeles (as part of a study on california), and hamilton and wellington in new zealand, though, in all, coverage is invariably partial. by way of illustration, and because their assessments are the most comprehensive, we discuss the series of studies undertaken for london and new york - and listed in table 2 in some detail. we then provide a summary of results from a number of other important city studies. table 2. studies relating to climate change impacts and adaptation: london new york
Name one of the four highly productive EBCSs that collectively support as much as one-fifth of the global marine fish harvest
the california current is one of four highly productive ebcss that collectively support as much as one-fifth of the global marine fish harvest
According to Checkley Barth (2009), where does this exceptional, yet variable, productivity come from?
exceptional, yet variable, productivity arises from transport of subarctic water from the north via the california current itself and wind-driven coastal upwelling flows that supply nutrients to the sunlit upper ocean (checkley barth 2009
What influences the ecosystem structure and function within the California Current according to Chavez et al.?
ecosystem structure and function within the california current are strongly influenced by the natural basin-scale modes of interannual to interdecadal climate variability, including enso, the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo), and the north pacific gyre oscillation (chavez et al. 2011
ebcss characterize the eastern margins of both the pacific and atlantic oceans, and support high production throughout the food web owing in large part to persistent coastal upwelling of nutrientrich water. the california current is one of four highly productive ebcss that collectively support as much as one-fifth of the global marine fish harvest. exceptional, yet variable, productivity arises from transport of subarctic water from the north via the california current itself and wind-driven coastal upwelling flows that supply nutrients to the sunlit upper ocean (checkley barth 2009). ecosystem structure and function within the california current are strongly influenced by the natural basin-scale modes of interannual to interdecadal climate variability, including enso, the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo), and the north pacific gyre oscillation (chavez et al. 2011). by modulating gyre circulation, current flows, sea level, and depths of the thermocline
What is the BOD remove efficiency in anaerobic ponds?
usually of the order of 50% to 70
Why is an anaerobic stage in an open reactor a matter of concern?
owing to the possibility of the generation of bad odours
At what threshold does sulphate concentration become problematic?
if the sulphate concentration in the influent is lower than 300 mg/l, the production of sulphide should not be problematic (in anaerobic conditions, sulphate is reduced to sulphide
anaerobic ponds do not require any special equipment and have a practically negligible energy consumption (for a possible pumping of the raw sewage or the recirculation of the final effluent). the bod removal efficiency in anaerobic ponds is usually of the order of 50% to 70%. the effluent bod is still high and implies the need of a post-treatment unit. the most widely used post-treatment units are facultative ponds, composing the system of anaerobic ponds followed by facultative ponds (fig. 14.1). the removal of bod in the anaerobic pond provides a substantial saving in the area required for the facultative pond, making the total land requirement (anaerobic facultative ponds) to be around 45% to 70% of the requirement for a primary facultative pond (receiving raw wastewater). the existence of an anaerobic stage in an open reactor is always a matter of concern, owing to the possibility of the generation of bad odours. if the system is well balanced, the generation of bad smell should not be important, but occasional operational problems can lead to the release of hydrogen sulphide (h2s), responsible for obnoxious odours. if the sulphate concentration in the influent is lower than 300 mg/l, the production of sulphide should not be problematic (in anaerobic conditions, sulphate is reduced to sulphide). additionally, if the ph in the pond is close to neutrality, most of the sulphide will be present in the form of the bisulphide ion (hs-), which is odourless (mara et al, 1997). wastewaters with low ph values (industrial effluents or wastewater originated from a water that is soft, with low alkalinity, high acidity or without ph correction) may induce odour problems. as a result of the points above, the anaerobic-facultative ponds system should be located far away from houses (during all the operational life of the ponds).
What has been indicated since 1980?
a strong upward trend in overall losses due to climate extremes is indicated since 1980 (munich re, 2011
What will extreme weather events have an impact on?
extreme events may have considerable impacts on sectors that have close links with climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism, and concomitantly in countries whose economies depend more heavily on such sectors (ipcc, 2012
What did Bouwer say of anthropogenic climate change?
there is no evidence to link this trend to anthropogenic climate change (bouwer, 2011
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. countries than it is in developed countries - up to 8% in the most extreme cases. a strong upward trend in overall losses due to climate extremes is indicated since 1980 (munich re, 2011), although how these will play out during the course of the current century is highly uncertain; and as yet there is no evidence to link this trend to anthropogenic climate change (bouwer, 2011). extreme events may have considerable impacts on sectors that have close links with climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism, and concomitantly in countries whose economies depend more heavily on such sectors (ipcc, 2012).
What are three things marine ecosystems composed of?
marine ecosystems are composed of individuals, populations and communities that are responsive to their immediate environment
What are two things that have an important consequences on marine ecosystems?
the effects of fishing on the sensitivities of individuals, populations, and communities of fish to climate forcing have been discussed above; all of these also have important consequences on marine ecosystems
marine ecosystems are composed of individuals, populations and communities that are responsive to their immediate environment, e.g. through changes in water temperature, nutrient dynamics, increased co2 (decreased ph), and changes in wind forcing and circulation patterns (harley et al., 2006). the effects of fishing on the sensitivities of individuals, populations, and communities of fish to climate forcing have been discussed above; all of these also have important consequences on marine ecosystems. the approach that is developed here is to determine when and how some 11 11 accepted version 2007 sept. journal of marine systems - globec special issue ecosystems can be more sensitive to climate following intense exploitation whereas other ecosystems appear to buffer those environmental changes. despite the existence of complex trophic interactions, strong patterns emerge at the ecosystem level through the combined effects of predation (top-down control) and plankton production (bottom-up control). the balance of one type of control versus the other can be altered by exploitation.
How many KM of erosion should have occured in the high topography of the Aar Massif?
6.5 km
What is the name of the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate?
5232 villigen-hsk
swiss federal nuclear safety inspectorate, 5232 villigen-hsk, switzerland foreland basins record the regional isostatic compensation of mountain belts; during periods of crustal thickening, they subside, and when erosion unloads the mass of the mountains, the basins rebound and are eroded. in order to evaluate this mechanism for rebound, it is critical that the timing and magnitude of erosion are documented. we present data estimating the timing and magnitude of late orogenic or postorogenic erosion in the north alpine foreland basin of switzerland. mineral cooling ages demonstrate that the basin underwent 1-3 km of erosion soon after 5 ma. this erosion coincided with a decline in structural deformation in the swiss alps, and a doubling of sediment accumulation rates in surrounding depocenters. we propose that accelerated erosional unroofing of the swiss alps triggered isostatic rebound and erosion of the foreland basin after 5 ma. a projection of the isostatic rebound of the basin into the mountains suggests that at least 6.5 km of erosion should have occurred in the high topography of the aar massif. accelerated erosion in the swiss alps at that time is explained by an increase in atmospheric moisture driven by an intensification of the atlantic gulf stream at 4.6 ma. consequently, we propose that the changing erosional capacity of the climate triggered late orogenic to postorogenic mass reduction and isostatic rebound of the swiss alps and their neighboring foreland basin. keywords: climate effects, exhumation, fission tracks, foreland basins, mountains, erosion.
What did the 2007 IPCC report listed?
the 2007 ipcc report listed the radiative forcing induced by ''soot on snow'' as an important anthropogenic forcing affecting climate change between 1750 and 2005
Why it is uncertain?
however, it is still uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle in mountain areas
Describe simulated BC concentrations ?
the simulated bc concentrations in the lower atmosphere are generally higher than the observed values derived from the improve networks. the climate simulations have been compared against observations for surface air temperature, precipitation, runoff, and snow water. the wrf-rcm model captured the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of precipitation very well
the 2007 ipcc report listed the radiative forcing induced by ''soot on snow'' as an important anthropogenic forcing affecting climate change between 1750 and 2005. however, it is still uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle in mountain areas. in this paper we simulate the deposition of soot aerosol on snow using a coupled regional aerosol/chemistry model, wrf-chem, to estimate the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation. this is then used to modify the maximum snow albedo for sensitivity tests using wrf as a regional climate model. investigation of the wrf regional climate simulations focuses primarily on the impact of the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation on snowpack and the hydrological cycle in the wus. wrf-chem simulated large spatial variability in bc concentrations that reflect the localized emissions, as well as the influence of the complex terrain and the resulting meteorological processes that affect chemical reactions and transport of pollutants. the simulated bc concentrations in the lower atmosphere are generally higher than the observed values derived from the improve networks. the climate simulations have been compared against observations for surface air temperature, precipitation, runoff, and snow water. the wrf-rcm model captured the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of precipitation very well. the spatial pattern of precipitation is also reasonably
What are the 7 main categories discussed in this section?
these are grouped under seven main categories, starting with health protection undertaken by vulnerable populations themselves, and moving through aspects of health education, public safety, disease surveillance and control, health care provision, protection of health infrastructure and the protection and provision of water and sanitation systems
How is each section of this text organized?
in each section, we first set out in broad terms the types of coping mechanisms and strategies described in the literature, before discussing some of the issues relating to them
What is the focus of this report?
it should be made clear that this document does not attempt to provide a comprehensive manual of response options the focus of this work instead has been on assessing processes and policy-related issues regarding response and adaptation
this section discusses in detail the scope, importance and issues associated with health-related responses to the impacts of flooding. these are grouped under seven main categories, starting with health protection undertaken by vulnerable populations themselves, and moving through aspects of health education, public safety, disease surveillance and control, health care provision, protection of health infrastructure and the protection and provision of water and sanitation systems. in each section, we first set out in broad terms the types of coping mechanisms and strategies described in the literature, before discussing some of the issues relating to them. it should be made clear that this document does not attempt to provide a comprehensive manual of response options the focus of this work instead has been on assessing processes and policy-related issues regarding response and adaptation. however, a summary list of the types of responses identified is provided in appendix 2.
Define compensated reduction?
the proposal labelled "compensated reduction" includes as its main element a voluntary national deforestation stabilization and reduction target for non-annex i countries such as brazil or indonesia
Explain about the conservation policies?
if these policies prove successful by the end of the fi rst commitment period, the respective carbon dioxide (co2) reductions, once monitored and verifi ed, can be sold to industrialized countries after the end of the fi rst commitment period at the carbon market prices prevailing at that time (santilli et al 2003b
Is Emission credits may be primary objective as private sectors are also eager to build their image to society ?
emission credits may not be the primary objective as private sectors are also eager to build their image to society
at a cop9 side event, santilli et al (2003a) presented a new proposal to include deforestation avoidance in tropical countries under the kp. the proposal labelled "compensated reduction" includes as its main element a voluntary national deforestation stabilization and reduction target for non-annex i countries such as brazil or indonesia. its objective is to encourage conservation policies. if these policies prove successful by the end of the fi rst commitment period, the respective carbon dioxide (co2) reductions, once monitored and verifi ed, can be sold to industrialized countries after the end of the fi rst commitment period at the carbon market prices prevailing at that time (santilli et al 2003b). the proposed baseline for brazil would be the average emissions from deforestation during the 1980s (santilli et al ., 2003a), or the 1990s (santilli et al 2003b). for other countries, other baseline periods might be adequate. who would be the buyers of these credits? while one paper talks of "governments or private investors" (santilli et al 2003b), the other one stresses that "...this would not be a market mechanism like the cdm [...], but an agreement between governments" (santilli et al 2003b). even in this latter case, the authors see these credits as being transferred through international emissions trading markets. voluntary markets are emerging and other ecosystem services such as biodiversity values may be bundled. emission credits may not be the primary objective as private sectors are also eager to build their image to society. in addition, public funding, although relatively small has yet to be mobilized. no substantial efforts have been made regarding the special climate change fund and the adaptation fund under the unfccc managed by the global environment facility. the host country would adhere to a binding, sectoral emission-limitation target by agreeing not to increase or further reduce deforestation-related emissions in the future. obviously any increase in ghg emissions above the target would reverse credits already sold to annex i countries, and thus result in non-compliance with this voluntary, but once agreed, binding emission-limitation target.
Explain Category Explanation?
category explanation example bear the costs do nothing to reduce vulnerability and allow household lawns and gardens to wither absorb losses
What are the measures to prevention?
prevent the loss adopt measures to reduce vulnerability protect coastal communities with seawalls or groins spread or share the loss spread burden of losses across different crop insurance systems or populations change
How adaptive capacity Enhance the resiliency of the system?
change the location move the activity or system move ice fishing operations farther north enhance adaptive capacity enhance the resiliency of the system to improve reduce non-climatic stresses, such as pollution its ability to deal with stress
category explanation example bear the costs do nothing to reduce vulnerability and allow household lawns and gardens to wither absorb losses prevent the loss adopt measures to reduce vulnerability protect coastal communities with seawalls or groins spread or share the loss spread burden of losses across different crop insurance systems or populations change the activity stop activities that are not sustainable under the make ski resort a four-season facility to attract new climate, and substitute with other activities tourists year round change the location move the activity or system move ice fishing operations farther north enhance adaptive capacity enhance the resiliency of the system to improve reduce non-climatic stresses, such as pollution its ability to deal with stress
Who did compilled the studies?
national oceanographic data center
What is The Southern Ocean?
the southern ocean is notoriously data-sparse, particularly during earlier eras
we examined oceanographic changes in the region west of the wap using hydrographic data from two recent compilations of ocean properties spanning the second half of the twentieth century boyer et al. 2005; levitus et al. 2005]. these were originally compiled by the national oceanographic data center, and interpolated onto a 1 degree-square grid at standard depth levels. the southern ocean is notoriously data-sparse, particularly during earlier eras; to protect the reliability of our results, we omitted from consideration any (interpolated) gridpoints for which no actual measurements were used when compiling the censuses, and derived decadal means using nonoverlapping data fields on the same grid and considering only fields which contained data from within the austral summer. (strong seasonal bias exists in the timing of data collection, thus data presented here relate solely to the austral summer). whilst the distribution of times of data collection within the austral summer varied during the sequence of measurements, there was no systematic change in the timings such as could lead to apparent trends in ocean
What are the researchers concerned with in this paragraph?
concern over the way that adaptation has been represented in costing studies
What is the role of adaptation in regards to climate change?
reducing the costs of climate change
What factors reduce reliability of cost estimates?
other studies incorporate simplified assumptions regarding adaptation, by assuming that adaptation either occurs optimally or not at all, and do not include realistic estimates of the costs of implementing adaptation measures,(47)despite the fact that research indicates that the costs of adapting to climate change in canada would be significant see table 5). another common concern with respect to the inclusion of adaptation in costing studies is that no distinction is drawn between anticipatory adaptation and autonomous adaptation, despite the fact that there are generally economic advantages to anticipatory adaptation. the distribution of adaptation costs and benefits has also received little attention
many researchers have expressed concern over the way that adaptation has been represented in costing studies.(48, 60)although it is recognized that adaptation has a pivotal role in reducing the costs of climate change,(8)many studies pay little attention to adaptation. other studies incorporate simplified assumptions regarding adaptation, by assuming that adaptation either occurs optimally or not at all, and do not include realistic estimates of the costs of implementing adaptation measures,(47)despite the fact that research indicates that the costs of adapting to climate change in canada would be significant see table 5). another common concern with respect to the inclusion of adaptation in costing studies is that no distinction is drawn between anticipatory adaptation and autonomous adaptation, despite the fact that there are generally economic advantages to anticipatory adaptation. the distribution of adaptation costs and benefits has also received little attention.(61)these factors reduce the reliability of cost estimates.
What could happen by bounding the questions with decision-makers?
bounding the questions with decision-makers could further truncate the considerable uncertainty that may result from using conditional probabilities
What is one important result apparent in Figure 2?
one important robust result apparent in figure 2 is that the climate sensitivity is very unlikely to lie below 1ok, with the most likely values ranging from 2deg to 6ok
this is a real danger that only scientists involved in the research can prevent by proper communication of uncertainty. it is important to emphasize that these subjective probabilities are highly conditional upon the assumptions made; again the need to be as explicit and transparent as possible cannot be emphasized enough. our view on conditional probabilities is that we should not wait for perfect information (e.g. a single pdf before providing decision-makers with the best available scientific information for their questions. a combination of conditional probabilities and scenarios will be required. bounding the questions with decision-makers could further truncate the considerable uncertainty that may result from using conditional probabilities. one important robust result apparent in figure 2 is that the climate sensitivity is very unlikely to lie below 1ok, with the most likely values ranging from 2deg to 6ok. the combination of this result with the sensitivity study of caldeira et al. (2003) has important policy implications as it precludes considerable carbon emissions increases during this century if we aspire to stabilize the climate.
What country is the focus of this data set?
the data covers thirteen major states in india
What time period is covered in the data?
for the period 1951-1980
What climate information is included in the data?
climate information includes details of the average daily temperature and monthly total rainfall
the data used for this study includes a district-level agricultural dataset for the period 1966 to 1986. the data covers thirteen major states in india and includes information on 271 districts. kumar also uses climate data from over 390 meteorological stations spread across india. this climate data gives details of the average observed weather for the period 1951-1980. the climate information includes details of the average daily temperature and monthly total rainfall in the four months of january, april, july and october. the information therefore covers the four main seasons. alongside these climate factors, kumar also assesses the impact of a whole range of other factors on agricultural revenue. these factors include soil type, the extent of mechanization, local literacy, population density, the number of cultivators and the fraction of agricultural land under irrigation and under high-yielding seed varieties. (c) kavi kumar
Why was the species P.lanceolata chosen for this experiment?
this particular species was chosen, because pre-analysis revealed higher effects of drought on mycorrhizaal colonization of p. lanceolata than on that of other species tested
The roots of  P.lanceolata that were cut off, were stained with what percent solution of blue ink vinegar solution?
roots were cut off and fixed in formalinalcoholic-acid (50% ethanol, 40% h2o, 7.5% formalin, 2.5% acidic acid), and stained with 5% blue ink vinegar solution
What solution were the roots of the cut P.lanceolata suspended in?
roots were cut off and fixed in formalinalcoholic-acid (50% ethanol, 40% h2o, 7.5% formalin, 2.5% acidic acid
one complete plant individual of p.lanceolata was taken from each plot on the last day of drought using a soil core sampler with 5 cm diameter (eijkelkamp, giesbeek, the netherlands). this particular species was chosen, because pre-analysis revealed higher effects of drought on mycorrhizaal colonization of p. lanceolata than on that of other species tested. roots were cut off and fixed in formalinalcoholic-acid (50% ethanol, 40% h2o, 7.5% formalin, 2.5% acidic acid), and stained with 5% blue ink vinegar solution after boiling in 10% koh. afterwards, mycorrhization ratios were determined by scanning 15 cm fine roots of each sample for arbuscules and vesicules under a microscope (400 * using the 'magnified intersection method' (mcgonigle et al. 1990).
Who is causing how many emissions, and for what purpose?
we do not have all necessary data to appropriately mainstream gender into mitigation policies and instruments
How can we best inform women and men about the connections between their behaviour and climate change?
we do not have all necessary data to appropriately mainstream gender into mitigation policies and instruments
How can we help women and men to change their behaviour and cause fewer emissions?
but we do know enough to a) be sure that gender mainstreaming is needed and b) invest in further research
looking at mitigation through a "gender lens", for example, we can ask: who is causing how many emissions, and for what purpose? how can we best inform women and men about the connections between their behaviour and climate change? how can we help women and men to change their behaviour and cause fewer emissions? what impacts do mitigation policies have on women and men in their work and their daily lives? will rising energy prices, for example, affect women and men differently? we do not have all necessary data to appropriately mainstream gender into mitigation policies and instruments. but we do know enough to a) be sure that gender mainstreaming is needed and b) invest in further research.
How many years the worst droughts occcur?
last 25 years
When did Carlos returned to farm in Nwadjahane?
carlos returned to farm in nwadjahane in 1988 on land allocated by the traditional leader
coping experiences in nwadjahane experience 1: carlos'2family moved permanently from the village of nhofhoco to nwadjahane in 1983 because of the civil war raging in the remote rural areas. this was also during one of the worst droughts in the last 25 years. the family coped by buying limited food using remittances sent from carlos' mining job in south africa and survived by eating wild fruits and plants from the river. the family lost most of their cattle during the drought. carlos returned to farm in nwadjahane in 1988 on land allocated by the traditional leader. in 2000, serious regional flooding destroyed the harvest and several cattle drowned. carlos felt cattle have become vulnerable to flooding because they are often grazing in the lowland after drought. in 2001, a storm washed away their home and animals were sold to pay for the construction. there was a bad harvest after the early season drought in 2003-2004, which was compounded by damage by late heavy rains. the family sold some pigs and exchanged traditional alcohol to buy food. goats and chickens that died from disease were replaced by gifts from relatives. they also rely on their friends to help and borrow money from family to support the large family of nine. carlos has recently been sick and had to borrow heavily to pay for hospital treatment.
In which month statistics are computed?
may-october (mjjaso
what is the range of plotted p value?
the p values are plotted for values below 5
how p value estimate should be considered?
the p value estimates should only be considered as indicative at the moment because of uncertainty in how the sampling should be best performed
may-october (mjjaso). in addition composite statistics are also computed for enso using the monthly nino-3 (5degn-5degs, 150deg-90degw) sst index to provide additional weights to the statistical estimation for the positive and negative phases (see the appendix). to provide some indication of the significance for difference maps of the spatial statistics, p values (the probability that a more extreme value is possible) are also computed using a permutation monte carlo approach (sampling without replacement). the sampling distribution is assumed to be asymmetric and both tails are considered (asymmetric, two-tail test). this can be computationally intensive, so the sample size is limited to 2000, but has the benefit that it is nonparametric and makes no assumptions about the data. by sampling on the whole tracks we also take into account the correlation of the data within the tracks though not any correlation between tracks. this approach also has the benefit that the p values can be determined for a whole suite of statistics without having to resort to different tests for different statistics (further details will appear in a future publication). however, the p value estimates should only be considered as indicative at the moment because of uncertainty in how the sampling should be best performed. the p values are plotted for values below 5%.
How many radiocarbon ages are available for the period 6000-6500 cal. BP?
a maximum of 18 radiocarbon ages are available for the period 6000-6500 cal. bp
How many radiocarbon ages are available for the period 8500-2500?
eight radiocarbon dates per 500 years time-span is the minimum reached for the 8500-2500 time-window considered
Age models were constructed how?
age models were constructed using all available calibrated ages, including dated tephra layers, and the 'best fit' age model was selected for individual records, based on goodness-of-fit statistics and the appearance of the resulting curve (power et al., 2008, 2010
the radiocarbon corpus for the group of 36 records included in this study contains 168 dates (figure 4). a maximum of 18 radiocarbon ages are available for the period 6000-6500 cal. bp, and eight radiocarbon dates per 500 years time-span is the minimum reached for the 8500-2500 time-window considered. the chronological framework of this synthesis seems to be well supported and appropriate for a time-reconstruction of fire activities changes with an uncertainty +- 150 years which is 1.5x the mean of calibration interval from all radiocarbon ages available. all charcoal records used in this synthesis have been converted to a common time scale, in calibrated years bp (cal. bp) using either the original authors' published chronology or newly created age models from calibrated 14c dates. age models were constructed using all available calibrated ages, including dated tephra layers, and the 'best fit' age model was selected for individual records, based on goodness-of-fit statistics and the appearance of the resulting curve (power et al., 2008, 2010).
How useful is data that includes the inventor's country of residence?
because patent data include the inventor's country of residence, we know precisely the geography of technology flows and we can run regressions to understand what drives cross-border technology exchanges
What rights does the holder of a patent in a given country have?
this indicator is a proxy of technology transfer because holding a patent in a country gives the holder the exclusive right in that country to exploit the technology commercially. this does not necessarily mean that the inventor will actually use the technology there
Why do inventors patent abroad?
but there is an important difference. inventors obviously patent abroad to reap private benefits
as a measure of diffusion, our approach is similar to that of lanjouw and mody (1996), eaton and kortum (1999), or hascic and johnstone (2009). we count the number of patent applications in recipient countries for technologies invented abroad. because patent data include the inventor's country of residence, we know precisely the geography of technology flows and we can run regressions to understand what drives cross-border technology exchanges. this indicator is a proxy of technology transfer because holding a patent in a country gives the holder the exclusive right in that country to exploit the technology commercially. this does not necessarily mean that the inventor will actually use the technology there. yet, as patenting is both costly and risky, it implies that the inventor definitely plans to do so. this approach appears similar to the method based on patent citation analysis used in many studies seeking to measure the extent of international knowledge flows (see jaffe et al., 1993; peri, 2005). but there is an important difference. inventors obviously patent abroad to reap private benefits. therefore, while citations made by inventors to previous patents are an indicator of knowledge spillovers our indicator is a proxy for market-driven knowledge flows the study is organized as follows: section 2 discusses the use of patents as indicators of technology transfer. the data set is presented in section 3 along with data issues. in section 4 we develop a theoretical model that describes the diffusion of inventions between countries. the model is estimated in section 5. a final section summarizes the main results.
How are economic efficiency gains evaluated?
it is therefore instructive to assess the economic ef fi ciency gain that could be achieved by a more plausible global r&d policy
How much is the global cost reduction percentage to achieve the goal?
9 compared to the optimal global r&d policy analysed in the previous paragraph, the " realistic " r&d fund would have a smaller impact on mitigation policy costs, reducing the global cost of meeting the stabilisation target by at most 3 - 3.5% relative to cooperation on climate policy only. this reduction in policy costs is found to be highest for a fund of about 0.07% of gwp, roughly in line with those
it is therefore instructive to assess the economic ef fi ciency gain that could be achieved by a more plausible global r&d policy, and to compare it with the maximum theoretical gain. to this end, we assume a global fund making a constant share of gwp, fi nanced by oecd countries, allocated to each region on a per-capita basis, and spent only on breakthrough technologies, which we have shown have the largest cost-saving potential compared to alternatives. the results from such simulations in terms of ef fi ciency gains carried out for a range of fund sizes are reported in fig. 9 compared to the optimal global r&d policy analysed in the previous paragraph, the " realistic " r&d fund would have a smaller impact on mitigation policy costs, reducing the global cost of meeting the stabilisation target by at most 3 - 3.5% relative to cooperation on climate policy only. this reduction in policy costs is found to be highest for a fund of about 0.07% of gwp, roughly in line with those
What illustrates the case study?
our case study example illustrates that mapping adaptations by using the core concepts of the framework reveals a broad spectrum of options where some actors appear in multiple functional roles as operator, receptor or exposure unit
What the analysis show?
the analysis shows that there are already some implicit adaptations that may be entry points for more explicit adaptation to climate change. however, the analysis leads to the impression that it might be very difficult to achieve an adapted cooling water management on the level of the whole rhine catchment
What does Parson's action frame of reference show?
this incorporates the notion of an "atomistic" action unit into which all more complex actions can be decomposed. "simple" adaptations may be part of more "comprehensive" adaptations
our case study example illustrates that mapping adaptations by using the core concepts of the framework reveals a broad spectrum of options where some actors appear in multiple functional roles as operator, receptor or exposure unit. most adaptations connect up in complex means-ends chains. all types of barriers are identified, but at different positions along these chains. this makes it difficult to address the cooling water problem with simple "one size fits all" solutions. the analysis shows that there are already some implicit adaptations that may be entry points for more explicit adaptation to climate change. however, the analysis leads to the impression that it might be very difficult to achieve an adapted cooling water management on the level of the whole rhine catchment. coming to the conceptual level there is the difficulty that the framework is very analytic in the following sense. already parson's action frame of reference (1937) is intended to analyze a unit act. this incorporates the notion of an "atomistic" action unit into which all more complex actions can be decomposed. "simple" adaptations may be part of more "comprehensive" adaptations. indeed, carefully investigation of prima facie single adaptations from this perspective is likely to reveal a broad bundle of "atomistic" adaptations that are linked together in a kind of "molecule". similar problems are known from the literature on policy classification (cf. steinberger 1980): policies are difficult to demarcate (when does a policy begin and end in time?, where does it enter the domain of another policy?, etc.), and classification schemes are known to depend on the frame of reference. on the other hand, there are further interesting applications of the framework. the terminology of the operator, receptor and exposure unit can be exploited to map complex actor networks. this could provide the basis for understanding adaptation conflicts between different actors, or used to measure transaction costs associated with the coordination of multiple actors in developing and implementing adaptation policies. the framework has also been used to classify and systematize adaptations (e.g., in eisenack et al. 2011). there is also room for promising extensions. parson's action theory gives a prominent role to the norms and values that shape social action. this is currently not addressed by the framework, but could - together with investigation of available means and conditions - improve the analysis of the institutional dimensions of adaptation. finally, the important role of uncertainty and time in adaptation suggest promising lines of research that give more explicit consideration to how stimuli and means unfold in time, along with the perceptions and beliefs of actors. these remarks illustrate the interdisciplinary potential of the framework, and are a major motivation for its design. although it is rooted in action theory, the components referring to climate change and to the causal effects of stimuli and actions provide a link between the natural and the social sciences. 20
What kinds of intervention methods are not effective to avoid a tipping point after an early warning system is triggered?
once there is a reliable early warning of an approaching tipping point, it is too late for slow intervention methods to avoid it
Are mitigation actions helpful when a tipping point is unavoidable?
even when a tipping point is unavoidable, mitigation action may still help
What is one effort that can combat the climate change impacts of the mountain pine beetle infestation?
deliberate efforts to counter tipping in ecological systems can also be envisaged, for example, reforestation in west canadian boreal forests currently suffering mountain pine beetle infestation
if an early warning can be obtained and effectively communicated, the challenge becomes to translate it into effective risk reduction, either by trying to minimize the likelihood of passing a tipping point or by trying to minimize the impacts of passing it. corresponding riskreduction strategies need to be evaluated65. for many tipping elements, warning is unlikely to be early enough to allow aversive action by mitigation of long-lived greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide. it is conceivable that faster climate intervention methods, such as mitigation of short-lived radiative forcing agents73 or geoengineering to reduce incoming sunlight74, could be more effective. however, the multiple sources of inertia in the climate system, and in human response systems, make this questionable. an analogous problem of avoiding an approaching tipping point in an ecological system such as a fishery44 shows that once there is a reliable early warning of an approaching tipping point, it is too late for slow intervention methods to avoid it. even when a tipping point is unavoidable, mitigation action may still help. for example, the rate of greenland ice-sheet melt (and corresponding impacts through sea-level rise), even when committed to irreversible meltdown, depends on the extent to which this threshold has been exceeded75. when faced with most tipping point early warnings, adaptation to minimize impacts may be the most effective response, although maladaptive responses cannot be ruled out4. appropriate adaptation action needs research and will depend on the particular tipping point, but always relies on the recipients of the warnings being empowered to act effectively on the information76. deliberate efforts to counter tipping in ecological systems can also be envisaged, for example, reforestation in west canadian boreal forests currently suffering mountain pine beetle infestation77,78.
where have development objectives been clearly defined?
development objectives have been clearly defined and codified in the mdgs
What are the MDGs derived from?
the mdgs, which were derived from the united nations millennium declaration
How many countries endorsed the MDGs in 2000?
mdgs, which were derived from the united nations millennium declaration, and endorsed by 189 industrialized and developing countries in 2000
as climate related activities are a significant, increasing and potentially unrestricted part of oda, they should be geared towards the same objectives. development objectives have been clearly defined and codified in the mdgs, which were derived from the united nations millennium declaration, and endorsed by 189 industrialized and developing countries in 2000. while they represent a major objective for all fields of international policy, and for national policy making within developing countries, development cooperation is supposed to be most clearly geared towards these objectives. therefore, when considering the role of climate policy within oda, the most obvious test it has to pass is whether it contributes to the achievement of the mdgs.
What are the climate-related problems on two fronts?
project title objective partners methodologies to analyze policy responses and development outcomes analyze policy responses to climate-related problems on two fronts: (1) using bayesian modeling to investigate development outcomes of drought and policy responses, and (2) analyzing rice production data in indonesia and the philippines to identify the role of climate variability, and assess the potential for integrating climate information into rice import decision making. philippine dept. of agriculture, bureau of agricultural statistics ministry of agriculture, indonesia institute for development studies jaipur
What is Social Meanings of Climate Information?
s. social meanings of climate information investigate meanings attributed to climate information, derived from the social embeddedness of the institutions that generate them, via: 1) climate outlook forums and 2) indigenous forecasting methods
project title objective partners methodologies to analyze policy responses and development outcomes analyze policy responses to climate-related problems on two fronts: (1) using bayesian modeling to investigate development outcomes of drought and policy responses, and (2) analyzing rice production data in indonesia and the philippines to identify the role of climate variability, and assess the potential for integrating climate information into rice import decision making. philippine dept. of agriculture, bureau of agricultural statistics ministry of agriculture, indonesia institute for development studies jaipur; udayana university methodologies to analyze the institutional utility of climate information investigate current and past uses of climate information, via a literature review and focused country/regional case studies, and to assess the benefits and costs of climate information use by institutions. social meanings of climate information investigate meanings attributed to climate information, derived from the social embeddedness of the institutions that generate them, via: 1) climate outlook forums and 2) indigenous forecasting methods.
What drives climate change at multiple time scales?
natural and human-caused forces drive climate change at multiple time scales
What can catalyze rapid changes in climate?
interactions among mechanisms at various scales can catalyze rapid changes in climate
What is an important component of vulnerability analysis?
temporal perspectives are an important component of vulnerability analysis
temporal scales for analysis and planning -- natural and human-caused forces drive climate change at multiple time scales (millar et al. 2006). short-period cycles driven by changes in ocean circulation include the 2to 7-year el nino-southern oscillation and multidecadal patterns such as the pacific decadal oscillation. forces influencing even longer duration climatic variability range from century-scale effects driven by alternations in solar activity to millennial patterns that reflect changes in earth's orbital proximity to the sun. although these temporal scales may seem long relative to management contexts, interactions among mechanisms at various scales can catalyze rapid changes in climate. regardless of efforts to curtail emissions, ghgs will probably accumulate steadily in the atmosphere over the coming centuries, and these will interact with the combined cycles of natural change (solomon et al. 2007). just as unusual climatic events result when natural cycles coincide, so are interactions of ghg emissions expected to catalyze surprises in earth's climate, many of which cannot currently be modeled. we anticipate climatic consequences related to ghg emis sions to increase over time, although their expression will be amplified, attenuated, or reorganized by underlying natural mechanisms. the uncertainty of climate change effects increases with each additional decade into the future, a factor that must be considered when interpreting the output of models that project those effects. temporal perspectives are an important component of vulnerability analysis (table 2). temporal perspectives are also important for planning and priority setting (table 3) for adaptation to climatic warming, including the current year (relevant for ongoing projects), near to mid term (2 to 20 years hence; relevant for projects in development and project planning), and long term (>20 years; relevant for land management planning and adaptive management). in the current year, quick assessment of in-process projects for their potential climatic vulnerability is important. sometimes current projects originated years ago and under different directives, having taken a long time to get through nepa review, and only now are nearing implementation. these projects might have ben efited from analysis of climatic effects and thus might not be appropriate to deploy without modification that accounts for climate. for projects in development or nearto mid-term project planning (table 3), in which human-caused effects on climate are anticipated to be generally within the range of natural climatic variability and extreme events, stop-gap measures can be effective. at this scale, institutional change will also be important, because this is generally the timeframe of policy and behavioral adjustment within federal agencies. we anticipate that learning will spread throughout the forest service and
What can a country do to address hazards caused by rain and snow falls?
put into place national plans for managed retreat from coastal and riverine flood plains and extreme precipitation-related events
How does rain and snow fall affect future urban planning?
the drive to reduce exposure to the hazards they can bring may increasingly influence the location of populations in the future
What is an alternative to relocating populations to avoid hazards that can result from rain and snow fall?
reduce the vulnerability of individuals and buildings to those hazards
the levels of rain and snow falls in regions have complex and wide-ranging impacts on our built environment and lives. the drive to reduce exposure to the hazards they can bring may increasingly influence the location of populations in the future, just as major steps are taken to reduce the vulnerability of individuals and buildings to those hazards. the time has now come to put into place national plans for managed retreat from coastal and riverine flood plains and extreme precipitation-related events. the social and economic costs of not doing so are unaffordable in the short, medium and longer terms. accountability must be brought into the system and those with the power ultimately more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Why are drainage basins containing large lakes or glaciers less sensitive to changes in climate?
drainage basins containing large lakes or glaciers are generally less sensitive to changes in climate, at least in the short term, as these features help buffer the impacts of climate change
What may impact Northern rivers?
northern rivers may be impacted by permafrost degradation and changes in flood regimes.(33)ice-jam flooding is a key dynamic of the peace-athabasca delta in northern alberta, particularly for rejuvenation of riverside ecosystems
What kind of ecosystems are important component of the Canadian landscape?
river ecosystems are also an important component of the canadian landscape
river ecosystems are also an important component of the canadian landscape. their sensitivity to climate change is influenced by the characteristics of the river and its location. northern rivers may be impacted by permafrost degradation and changes in flood regimes.(33)ice-jam flooding is a key dynamic of the peace-athabasca delta in northern alberta, particularly for rejuvenation of riverside ecosystems. a decrease in ice-jam flooding due to climate change would significantly impact this ecologically sensitive region.(34)in southern canada, seasonal shifts in flow regimes projected for rivers could have major ecological impacts, including loss of habitat, species extinction, and increased water contamination. drainage basins containing large lakes or glaciers are generally less sensitive to changes in climate, at least in the short term, as these features help buffer the impacts of climate change. forests cover almost half of canada's landmass and are important regulators of the hydrological cycle. changes in forest extent and distribution, due to climate change or other factors, impact the storage and flow of water. an increase in forest disturbances, such as fires and insect defoliation, would also affect the ability of the forest to store and filter water. the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are covered in greater detail in the forestry chapter.
which species have a more spatially complex range shift than other species ?
the yellow-banded poison dart frog dendrobates leucomelas ]) had projected range changes that were more spatially complex 
what was average range expansion?
average range expansions, even assuming unlimited dispersal, were relatively modest. nevertheless, the variation in range expansions assuming unlimited dispersal was large, ranging from 0% to 635
when limited to an area of 50KM, what percentage of species were likely to lose range size
when dispersal was limited to an area within 50 km of the current range, 95% of species were projected to experience a net loss in range size
range-shift projections species showed a wide range of responses to projected future climatic changes (fig. 1). several species (e.g., the northern leopard frog rana pipiens ]) were projected to experience poleward or elevational shifts in their ranges (fig. 1). other species (e.g., the yellow-banded poison dart frog dendrobates leucomelas ]) had projected range changes that were more spatially complex (fig. 1). overall, species were projected to experience larger range contractions than range expansions (table 1). there was little difference in the sizes of range contractions and expansions across the three amphibian orders. average range expansions, even assuming unlimited dispersal, were relatively modest. nevertheless, the variation in range expansions assuming unlimited dispersal was large, ranging from 0% to 635% under the lower emission scenario and from 0% to 1200% under the higher emissions scenario. limiting dispersal resulted in relatively little change in the overall pattern of range contractions (fig. 2). eightyfive percent of all species were projected to experience a net loss in total range area under the lower emissions scenario when no dispersal limitations were applied. when dispersal was limited to an area within 50 km of the current range, 95% of species were projected to experience a net loss in range size under the lower emissions scenario (fig. 2a). differences in the percentage of species projected to lose all their current range given the limited and unlimited dispersal scenarios were even smaller. for example, under the lower emission scenario, 13% of all species were projected to lose 100% of their current range when dispersal was assumed to be unlimited and
What about experiences with working with federal agencies to prepare for climate change? vary according to the organizational structure
our experiences in working with federal agencies to prepare for climate change have varied according to organizational structure
What is the level of this variation? This variation is normal and it is not expected that a single process or approach will necessarily work for all management units
this variation is normal, and one would not expect that a single process or approach would necessarily work for all management units
What happens when working with these diverse units? we found several processes that facilitate the development of adaptation options
in working with these diverse units, we have found several processes that facilitate the development of adaptation options
our experiences in working with federal agencies to prepare for climate change have varied according to organizational structure, level of engagement in climate change issues, local involvement in planning processes, local emphasis on different resource objectives, and personal preferences regarding communication and collaboration. this variation is normal, and one would not expect that a single process or approach would necessarily work for all management units. in working with these diverse units, we have found several processes that facilitate the development of adaptation options. these processes include developing a science-management partnership, sharing of climate change information by scientists, sharing of local management (and often climate) knowledge by managers, identifying available local resource data, identifying available tools to assess effects of climate change as a basis for setting priorities, and using facilitated workshops to develop adaptation options.
Compare the traditional tribal consumption of fish and shellfish in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska and  that of  U.S.?
traditional tribal consumption of fish and shellfish in the pacific northwest and alaska can be on average 3 to 10 times higher than that of average u.s. consumers, or even up to 20 times highe
How will the climate change  lead to health risks and cultural implications for tribal communities?
climate change will contribute to increased seafood contamination by toxins and potentially by chemical contaminants (see "6.5 emerging issues" below), with potential health risks and cultural implications for tribal communities
According to the scholar, who will  face increased health risks from contamination?
those who continue to consume traditional diets may face increased health risks from contamination
traditional tribal consumption of fish and shellfish in the pacific northwest and alaska can be on average 3 to 10 times higher than that of average u.s. consumers, or even up to 20 times higher.216 climate change will contribute to increased seafood contamination by toxins and potentially by chemical contaminants (see "6.5 emerging issues" below), with potential health risks and cultural implications for tribal communities. those who continue to consume traditional diets may face increased health risks from contamination.217 alternatively, replacing these traditional nutrition sources may involve consuming less nutritious processed foods and the loss of cultural practices tied to fish and shellfish harvest.218, 219
why is the government hesitant to implement stringent climate-related policies and regulations?
partly fearing loss of public favor
how are policy makers nudging citizens towards desired outcome?
turning to behavioral economics
what is the political benefit of this tactic?
is that it seems to offer the potential to change behavior in a low-impact manner with little regulation and without consumers perceiving that their sovereignty has been compromised
governments have been somewhat hesitant to implement stringent climate-related policies and regulations, partly fearing loss of public favor. as a result, policymakers are increasingly turning to behavioral economics as a way to 'nudge' citizens toward desired behavioral outcomes via low-cost and socially acceptable approaches.166,167the political benefit of this approach is that it seems to offer the potential to change behavior in a low-impact manner with little regulation and without consumers perceiving that their sovereignty has been compromised.168at its core, behavioral economics posits that economic models are implicitly behavioral and thus that the incorporation of psychological foundations can increase their realism which, in turn, allows for more accurate predictions and better informs policy.169evidence from
People could live without machines climate?
they can live without machines in climates from 50 deg c below to 50 deg c above freezing poin
We can adapt a building to climate changes?
that buildings are adaptable we also know, and that people can live in the same tent, perhaps not comfortably, at the extremes is sure
What is the crucial problem in designing buildings today
the risk of not surviving in a particular building type and region will be largely dependent on the nature of that building and on how much the climate changes
how much of a challenge will climate change be to us? surely we can adapt to the changes ahead with better buildings and technologies? that humans are adaptable we know. they have settled in flimsy tents from the ice lands of the arctic to the sand lands of the equator. they can live without machines in climates from 50 deg c below to 50 deg c above freezing point. that buildings are adaptable we also know, and that people can live in the same tent, perhaps not comfortably, at the extremes is sure. but there is a fixed range of temperatures within which a building type will give adequate protection in extreme weather, flanked by thermal thresholds beyond which survival in such a building may not be assured. we also know that with clever design, building types can be modified and improved in one area to be safe in a significantly wider range of temperatures. chapter 10 shows how this is the case in the roman and the baroque buildings of naples. but there are climate thresholds beyond which buildings cease to be safe to occupy, with the vulnerability of the occupant depending on the form and fabric of the buildings, and the degree of its exposure to extreme climates. the risk of not surviving in a particular building type and region will be largely dependent on the nature of that building and on how much the climate changes. both are crucial in the challenge of designing buildings today in which people can be comfortable in 50 years ' time.
How were ice crystals formed ?
ice crystals were formed from ambient aerosol within a liter-sized continuous flow diffusion chamber (cfdc)1
How was  naturally-occurring ice crystals separated ?
ice crystals in naturally occurring mixed-phase clouds were separated for analysis using an 'ice-cvi' specifically designed for mixed-phase conditions
How does a diffusion chamber function ?
a diffusion chamber functions by generating an environment with a defined temperature below the melting point of water and a supersaturated relative humidity with respect to ice. these conditions are produced in the space between two ice coated walls held at different temperatures and mimic those at which atmospheric mixed-phase and ice clouds form. diffusion leads to a linear gradient in temperature and absolute humidity between the walls but, because of the exponential relation between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, a supersaturation is achieved close to the center
supplementary information methods three types of experiments were undertaken to determine the nature of ice nuclei and ice residue. first, ice crystals were formed from ambient aerosol within a liter-sized continuous flow diffusion chamber (cfdc)1. ice crystals were then separated for analysis using a counterflow virtual impactor (cvi)2. second, ice crystals in naturally occurring mixed-phase clouds were separated for analysis using an 'ice-cvi' specifically designed for mixed-phase conditions3. third, experiments were conducted within the aerosol interactions and dynamics in the atmosphere (aida) cloud chamber4 on collected samples of mineral dust. experiments were also performed on collected samples of mineral dust doped with lead with a cfdc. analysis was in all cases performed using single particle mass spectrometry (spms)5,6. electron microscopy (em) coupled to energy dispersive x-ray microanalysis7 was also used for ambient ice residue characterization. cfdc a diffusion chamber functions by generating an environment with a defined temperature below the melting point of water and a supersaturated relative humidity with respect to ice. these conditions are produced in the space between two ice coated walls held at different temperatures and mimic those at which atmospheric mixed-phase and ice clouds form. diffusion leads to a linear gradient in temperature and absolute humidity between the walls but, because of the exponential relation between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, a supersaturation is achieved close to the center. a sample aerosol flow layered between two particle-free sheath flows constrains the conditions to which the
In connection with shifts in weather and climate patterns, what role did traditional calendars play and how was it achieved?
based on a combination of locally specific environmental, seasonal, climatic and astronomical observations, traditional calendars have played an important role in how indigenous and local small island communities interpret and respond to shifts in weather and climate patterns. such calendars not only relate to annual cycles with recurring seasonal patterns, but may also incorporate patterns of weather and climate on a larger multi-annual time scale, as is the case in torres islands
cite examples of the fruitful application of traditional calendar by the small island communioties?
here may be a certain synchronization of enso-related (7 to 8 year) periods of drought and above-average rainfall which lead to increased food production that is tied into important ritual activity, namely, ceremonial feasting related to special status-alteration rituals that only take place once or twice during the average lifetime of a person. specifically, ensorelated periods of drought tend to be related with little to no production of ceremonial yams and kava, while wetter years produce the contrary effect [see box 4.2]. another example of the application of traditional calendars is the use of lunar observations in the organization of local artisanal fisheries practices and weather forecasting in cape verde in the eastern atlantic. knowledge of the lunar cycle is incorporated into a 'mental map of every fisherman, including the coordinates of each [fishing] ground based on landmarks' (ilic, see box 4.4). due to its influence on sea tides, fishers regard the moon as a compass
Explain with examples the role played by lunar observations in traditional weather forecasting.
ilic further notes how the lunar observations play a role in traditional weather forecasting: 'if there is a green circle around moon, weather will be fresh and rainy; if it is white one, it will be windy' (box 4.4). traditional lunar-based calendars are also important in the structuring of traditional agricultural practices. in tuvalu, traditional seasonal calendars have been used as the basis for interpreting weather, including extreme weather events (resture, see ipmpcc, 2011). 93
based on a combination of locally specific environmental, seasonal, climatic and astronomical observations, traditional calendars have played an important role in how indigenous and local small island communities interpret and respond to shifts in weather and climate patterns. such calendars not only relate to annual cycles with recurring seasonal patterns, but may also incorporate patterns of weather and climate on a larger multi-annual time scale, as is the case in torres islands: [...] there may be a certain synchronization of enso-related (7 to 8 year) periods of drought and above-average rainfall which lead to increased food production that is tied into important ritual activity, namely, ceremonial feasting related to special status-alteration rituals that only take place once or twice during the average lifetime of a person. specifically, ensorelated periods of drought tend to be related with little to no production of ceremonial yams and kava, while wetter years produce the contrary effect [see box 4.2]. another example of the application of traditional calendars is the use of lunar observations in the organization of local artisanal fisheries practices and weather forecasting in cape verde in the eastern atlantic. knowledge of the lunar cycle is incorporated into a 'mental map of every fisherman, including the coordinates of each [fishing] ground based on landmarks' (ilic, see box 4.4). due to its influence on sea tides, fishers regard the moon as a compass. ilic further notes how the lunar observations play a role in traditional weather forecasting: 'if there is a green circle around moon, weather will be fresh and rainy; if it is white one, it will be windy' (box 4.4). traditional lunar-based calendars are also important in the structuring of traditional agricultural practices. in tuvalu, traditional seasonal calendars have been used as the basis for interpreting weather, including extreme weather events (resture, see ipmpcc, 2011). 93
Why the California water suppl are going to increase?
california's water supply (annual unimpaired runoff) is projected to decline or remain steady (fig. 3), and demands are likely to increase as populations and temperatures rise
How much the pumping has depleted between 1998 and 2010 from the central valley ground water system?
48.5 km3of water
What are the future strategies of water management?
aggressively increasing water-use efficiency, reducing surface water deliveries, capturing more runoff in surface storage or groundwater recharge, and implementing programs of integrated regional water management
california's water supply (annual unimpaired runoff) is projected to decline or remain steady (fig. 3), and demands are likely to increase as populations and temperatures rise. deficits of surface runoff are now met with groundwater pumping. however, pumping between 1998 and 2010 depleted 48.5 km3of water from the central valley groundwater system, and continued groundwater depletion at this rate is unsustainable future strategies of water management will require adaptations such as aggressively increasing water-use efficiency, reducing surface water deliveries, capturing more runoff in surface storage or groundwater recharge, and implementing programs of integrated regional water management model results suggest that the inherent large annual variability of precipitation will persist (fig. 2), even as longer-term trends of warming and possibly drying take hold. therefore, water-resource planning should also include contingencies for longer dry seasons, extended droughts, and extreme floods due to shifts from snow to rain. diminishing snow packs result in earlier reservoir inflow, so reservoir operations must adapt to a shift toward more water being managed as a hazard (flood control) and less as a resource (reservoir storage). additional freshwater releases to mitigate increased salinity intrusion into the estuary will be required to maintain quality of drinking water to communities that use the delta as their municipal water supply. these adaptations to maintain water supply for human consumptive uses will potentially constrain availability of water to meet objectives of habitat conservation plans, such as restoring natural flow and salinity variability to promote recovery of native biota in the delta
What is one of the challenges faced when promoting carbon capability?
one of the challenges therefore for promoting carbon capability is to increase the visibility of carbon and re--materialize energy use in day--to--day activities and choices (burgess and nye, 2008
Who spoke of the challenges posed?
burgess and nye, 2008
What meaning does carbon capability have?
carbon capability is about transforming understandings of carbon from an inevitable (invisible and overlooked) waste product of modern lifestyles, to a potent contributor to the atmospheric system, a substance to be carefully managed
managing material consumption and managing carbon are also similar in the way that they have intangible aspects. the sheer intangibility of credit finance compared with cash has also contributed to its widespread acceptance (although recently cash has made a comeback, as a visible way of controlling spending; brc, 2008), bringing attendant social problems (cohen, 2007; witness also the current 'credit--crunch'-driven recession). similarly, the negative impacts of increasing carbon emissions are easily ignored because of their intangibility. one of the challenges therefore for promoting carbon capability is to increase the visibility of carbon and re--materialize energy use in day--to--day activities and choices (burgess and nye, 2008). carbon capability is about transforming understandings of carbon from an inevitable (invisible and overlooked) waste product of modern lifestyles, to a potent contributor to the atmospheric system, a substance to be carefully managed.
What s PRISM algorithms?
prism algorithms that include linear precipitationelevation regression functions and topographic facet station weighting at each grid cell
What are the model in PRISM algorithms? Explain the elevations?
the model was run for each month, and the resulting grids summed to produce an annual total. the topographic weighting exponent c was set to 1.8. strong orographic enhancement of precipitation is clearly evident on the southwestern slopes of the mountains, with annual values exceeding 6000 mm yr-1. in the northeastern portion of the mountains, elevations are relatively high (see fig. 2), but lack of exposure to the moist southwesterly flow reduces precipitation significantly
What is Downslope warming and drying?
downslope warming and drying along the lower lee slope of mountains produces further drying, culminating in a precipitation minimum of less than 500 mm yr-1on the coastal plain near port angeles. the configuration of these precipitation patterns bears a strong similarity to the longwavelength facet configuration in fig. 3b. topographic
prism algorithms that include linear precipitationelevation regression functions and topographic facet station weighting at each grid cell. the model was run for each month, and the resulting grids summed to produce an annual total. the topographic weighting exponent c was set to 1.8. strong orographic enhancement of precipitation is clearly evident on the southwestern slopes of the mountains, with annual values exceeding 6000 mm yr-1. in the northeastern portion of the mountains, elevations are relatively high (see fig. 2), but lack of exposure to the moist southwesterly flow reduces precipitation significantly. downslope warming and drying along the lower lee slope of mountains produces further drying, culminating in a precipitation minimum of less than 500 mm yr-1on the coastal plain near port angeles. the configuration of these precipitation patterns bears a strong similarity to the longwavelength facet configuration in fig. 3b. topographic
are initial interventions happening in india yet
but local level adaptation actions or policy interventions do not exist
how many additional people are going to be  in india by 2060
given the expected addition of almost 500 million people in an estimated 7,000-12,000 urban settlements by the 2060s
what determines the vulnerability of urban infrastructure areas
model stormwater scenarios for the metropolitan region for 2015, 2030, 2050, etc.; * determine the vulnerability of key urban infrastructure
since 1998, india has undertaken a few national assessments of climate change risks, including an assessment of impact, and adaptation and mitigation options. but local level adaptation actions or policy interventions do not exist. however, the national action plan for climate change (napcc)(26) introduced by the prime minister of india, has opened up certain entry points; and a few international agencies such as the world bank, the international council for local environmental initiatives (now known as iclei-local government for sustainability), the world wide fund for nature (wwf), the asian cities climate change research network (acccrn) and the urban climate change research network (uccrn) also have started pilot projects in some indian cities. table 1 gives a brief overview of studies, policies and projects on climate change so far, which are discussed in detail in the coming paragraphs. not all the interventions mentioned here have been primarily for adaptation. the initial interventions have mostly been assessments of climate change vulnerability and impact assessment studies, or disaster management strategies. urban adaptation planning is imperative for indian cities given the expected addition of almost 500 million people in an estimated 7,000-12,000 urban settlements by the 2060s and simultaneous related environmental transitions in water, sanitation and environmental health, air and water pollution and climate change. some other initiatives in this area, targeting indian cities, are discussed below. the world bank has initiated a project in kolkata to assess the vulnerability and adaptation options for the city. the objectives of the study are to: * improve downscaling of precipitation variation and sea-level rise projections for kolkata metropolitan region for the years 2015, 2030 and 2050; * model stormwater scenarios for the metropolitan region for 2015, 2030, 2050, etc.; * determine the vulnerability of key urban infrastructure; and * estimate initial costs for necessary infrastructure adaptation measures under these scenarios.
What became apparent during the 1980s?
however, it became apparent during the 1980s that most of the development funds had generated neither the expected growth nor the improvement of general wealth and social conditions
How did the development community react?
the development community reacted by developing new paradigms, like the focus on "pro-poor growth" from the mid 1990s onwards, and the definition of the "millenium development goals" (mdgs) to eradicate poverty
Who started to feel an "aid fatigue"?
aid agencies, donor country politicians and international non-governmental organizations (ngos) started to feel an "aid fatigue", i.e. growing disinterest among their constituencies
however, it became apparent during the 1980s that most of the development funds had generated neither the expected growth nor the improvement of general wealth and social conditions. the development community reacted by developing new paradigms, like the focus on "pro-poor growth" from the mid 1990s onwards, and the definition of the "millenium development goals" (mdgs) to eradicate poverty. despite all efforts, these reorientations were widely conceived as hardly convincing. many observers wondered whether they might represent no more than "old wine in new bottles" (cling, razafindrakoto and roubaud 2002), i.e. little truly substantial change (easterly 2002). from the end of the 1980s onwards, the development literature no longer looked forward, but started acknowledging "the failure of the grand theories" (menzel 1992). aid agencies, donor country politicians and international non-governmental organizations (ngos) started to feel an "aid fatigue", i.e. growing disinterest among their constituencies. the vast majority of donor countries never reached the 0.7% commitment, but steadily increased their distance from the target.
How  and when will  the climate change affect water temperature in the temperate climate zone?
climate change is expected to increase water temperature in the temperate climate zone, particularly during winter and spring
When is the CO2 emissions expected to double?
an increase in the annual mean surface temperatures of 3 to 5degc during the 21st century ('business as usual' scenario) is predicted to cause a doubling of co2 emissions
How much increase is expected in winter temperatures?
in winter, temperatures may increase by as much as 5 to 10degc (prediction for the years 2070 to 2100
climate change is expected to increase water temperature in the temperate climate zone, particularly during winter and spring. an increase in the annual mean surface temperatures of 3 to 5degc during the 21st century ('business as usual' scenario) is predicted to cause a doubling of co2 emissions. in winter, temperatures may increase by as much as 5 to 10degc (prediction for the years 2070 to 2100 compared to the reference period 1960 to 1990, ipcc 2001). warming will have consequences for the aquatic food web in terms of its composition and the activity of its components at the different trophic levels (beisner et al. 1997, tian et al. 2003, muren et al. 2005). light-dependent phototrophic
what will impact crop and livestock agriculture ?
the combination of generally increasing temperatures and shifting rainfall amounts and patterns will clearly have impacts on crop and livestock agriculture
How would be the crop productivity in high  latitudes  and lower latitudes?
at midto high latitudes, crop productivity may increase slightly for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3 degc, depending on the crop, while at lower latitudes, crop productivity is projected to decreases for even relatively small local temperature increases
How would the crop yield be in the  tropics and subtropics ?
in the tropics and subtropics in general, crop yields may fall by 10 to 20% to 2050 because of warming and drying, but there are places where yield losses may be much more severe (jones and thornton, 2003; thornton et al., 2007
the combination of generally increasing temperatures and shifting rainfall amounts and patterns will clearly have impacts on crop and livestock agriculture. feed is and will remain a critical constraint on livestock production in the tropics and crop productivity is a useful proxy for feed availability in most regions. at midto high latitudes, crop productivity may increase slightly for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3 degc, depending on the crop, while at lower latitudes, crop productivity is projected to decreases for even relatively small local temperature increases (1-2 degc) (ipcc, 2007). in the tropics and subtropics in general, crop yields may fall by 10 to 20% to 2050 because of warming and drying, but there are places where yield losses may be much more severe (jones and thornton, 2003; thornton et al., 2007).
How were the existence and magnitude of urban-nonurban air temperature differences documented?
the existence and magnitude of urban-nonurban air temperature differences were documented using monthly maximum, minimum and mean temperature data for the period 1950-1999 from the national climatic data center (ncdc
What is daytime sky cover?
daytime sky cover is the percentage of the sky covered with clouds between sunrise and sunset
How were urban stations defined?
urban stations were defined as those stations located in areas with more than 2000 people per square kilometer
the existence and magnitude of urban-nonurban air temperature differences were documented using monthly maximum, minimum and mean temperature data for the period 1950-1999 from the national climatic data center (ncdc).2 urban-nonurban differences in minimum temperature serve as the primary indicator of the magnitude of the heat island effect because urban-nonurban temperature differences are normally most pronounced at night. at newark, the effect of wind speed and cloud cover on uhi intensity was examined at a monthly scale over the period 1984-1995 to determine the strength of the correlation in the study region. wind speed, daytime sky cover, and overall sky cover data for newark airport were used. daytime sky cover is the percentage of the sky covered with clouds between sunrise and sunset. overall sky cover is the percentage of sky covered with clouds over 24-h periods measured from midnight to midnight. the selected meteorological stations, their locations, and their land-use classifications are shown in fig. 1 and table 1 urban stations were defined as those stations located in areas with more than 2000 people per square kilometer. trends in temperature and uhi intensity over the last half-century were then examined. potential interactions between the uhi effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover were considered using a range of climate change scenarios. the scenarios were developed from extrapolation of current trends and global climate models (gcms), following the metropolitan east coast regional assessment of climate variability and change rosenzweig and solecki, 2001 and the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) special report on emissions scenarios (sres) ipcc sres, 2001 ). projected climate variables include regional minimum, maximum and mean temperature, as well as wind speed
In which years does CICA operate?
the canadian institute of chartered accountants (cica) was also active on environmental and climate change issues during the late 1990s and turn of the century
What does CiCA do in 2002 for the climate change?
specifically on climate change accounting issues cica took the lead in 2002 along with the international emissions trading association (ieta) in sponsoring meetings of key industry and accounting players (the uk accounting standards board, the american institute of certified public accountants and fasb emerging issues task force and others) to consider greenhouse gas accounting in the run up to the eu ets (casamento 2005
on what do these network work?
we note here that this specialist, select group of accounting professionals working on the financial accounting issues associated with greenhouse gas emission reduction units bears some similarities with the concept of an epistemic community: a group of technical experts working to address a particular policy problem
the canadian institute of chartered accountants (cica) was also active on environmental and climate change issues during the late 1990s and turn of the century. as early as 1993 cica published a report on environmental costs and liabilities: accounting and financial reporting issues. in 1997 it was a founding member of the global reporting initiative (gri) steering committee, and was heavily involved in drafting subsequent gri reporting guidelines. specifically on climate change accounting issues cica took the lead in 2002 along with the international emissions trading association (ieta) in sponsoring meetings of key industry and accounting players (the uk accounting standards board, the american institute of certified public accountants and fasb emerging issues task force and others) to consider greenhouse gas accounting in the run up to the eu ets (casamento 2005). the detailed activities of this network of organisations, including private accounting firms and accountancy standard setters as well as accounting professional bodies, has been well documented elsewhere (bebbington and larrinaga-gonzalez 2008; cook 2008; mackenzie 2008). we note here that this specialist, select group of accounting professionals working on the financial accounting issues associated with greenhouse gas emission reduction units bears some similarities with the concept of an epistemic community: a group of technical experts working to address a particular policy problem. nevertheless their climate change discussions did not have wider ramifications across the profession; their recommendations were not widely circulated or acknowledged, and in this sense the application of the epistemic community concept is limited. there was an initial framing of the issue by this group (the 'policy innovation' first mechanism in alder and haas's proposal for how 20 20 epistemic communities exert influence), but it appears to have stalled at the second mechanism, that of policy diffusion.
In which city were there 60 fires?
during the night from thursday to friday new york suffered 60 serious fires
What is the main cause of the fires?
mostly caused by people lighting candles in the dark
How many airports have been suspended?
the us federal administration halted flights into six airports
during the night from thursday to friday new york suffered 60 serious fires, mostly caused by people lighting candles in the dark. <s121>* nine nuclear reactors in four us states were taken off-line, contributing here to the problem of fuel insecurity rather than solving it. <s121>* the us federal administration halted flights into six airports - three in the new york area, one in cleveland and two in canada. <s121>* sporadic looting was reported in at least four areas of the canadian capital, ottawa, and 26 people were arrested for looting in brooklyn, new york. <s121>* the blackout closed the detroit - windsor tunnel, which links the usa and canada and is used by 27 000 vehicles daily. <s121>* in the canadian mining town of sudbury some 100 miners were trapped underground until power could be restored. <s121>* detroit's 15 major car plants closed down until monday 18 august 2003. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What did Carroll et al find during the latte half of the 20th century ?
they found that during the latter half of the 20th century, there was a substantial shift in climatically benign habitats for mountain pine beetle northward and toward higher elevations
Did the susceptible age of pine increase or decrease ?
there was an increase in the amount of susceptible age pine in all climatic suitability classes since 1950
Where did Carroll et al do their data collection ?
carroll et al. (2004) used historic weather and digital terrain data to model climatic suitability across british columbia for the per
carroll et al. (2004) used historic weather and digital terrain data to model climatic suitability across british columbia for the period 1930-2000. they found that during the latter half of the 20th century, there was a substantial shift in climatically benign habitats for mountain pine beetle northward and toward higher elevations. areas suitable for mountain pine beetle (i.e., high and extreme cscs) have expanded dramatically in south-central and south-eastern british columbia (fig. 13). the distribution of susceptible age pine by climatic suitability class is shown in figure 14. as with climate suitability alone, there was an increase in the amount of susceptible age pine in moderate and high suitability classes in central british columbia during 1950-1990. furthermore, there was an increase in the amount of susceptible age pine in all climatic suitability classes since 1950 (fig. 14b).
How was made the classification adjustment?
an adjustment to the classification error was made using a linear regression of classification error on the ratio of polygon perimeter to area, an index of the shape of the polygon
How was made the classification of extramural climates?
to classify extramural climates, the climate envelope was used for truncation: if, for any single variable, the projected climate was outside the 35-variable envelope of the community receiving the voting plurality, the climate of the pixel was classified as extramural
How many favorable votes are necessary to declare the climate of a pixel suitable for a species?
to predict occurrence, the climate of a pixel was declared suitable for a species when receiving a majority 50%) of favorable votes
international journal of plant sciences digitized community boundaries and the digital elevations on which climate estimates were based. misclassification, therefore, was highest for those communities that tend to occur in small patches or irregular shapes. an adjustment to the classification error was made using a linear regression of classification error on the ratio of polygon perimeter to area, an index of the shape of the polygon. in using the plurality of votes to map contemporary community profiles in future climatic space, each pixel was assorted into one of the 25 communities. this approach, however, could not provide for the contingency that future climates may be novel, having no analog among the contemporary communities. to consider this contingency, we examined the possibility that the projected climate of a pixel may be extramural to that of the community receiving the plurality of votes. to classify extramural climates, the climate envelope was used for truncation: if, for any single variable, the projected climate was outside the 35-variable envelope of the community receiving the voting plurality, the climate of the pixel was classified as extramural. bioclimatic profiles of the nine species were mapped using the votes cast in favor of a pixel being within the climate profile of a species. to illustrate the performance of the model along with the uncertainty in its predictions, votes were grouped into five classes, each consisting of 20% of the total. to predict occurrence, the climate of a pixel was declared suitable for a species when receiving a majority 50%) of favorable votes.
What does having higher resolution improve?
higher resolution improves the representation of landscape features such as mountain ranges, lakes, and estuaries, as well as other surface features
What are similar features in oceans?
similar types of features in oceans include bathymetric detail, straits, silts, sea ice cover, etc
What else can higher resolution track?
higher resolution is furthermore beneficial for the simulation of synoptic and mesoscale systems including fronts, precipitation, and other extremes. herein one role of rcms is the study of climate processes
rcm resolution also marks their core potential. higher resolution improves the representation of landscape features such as mountain ranges, lakes, and estuaries, as well as other surface features. these give rise to local or regional circulation and precipitation features, modify temperature, winds, and so on. similar types of features in oceans include bathymetric detail, straits, silts, sea ice cover, etc. higher resolution is furthermore beneficial for the simulation of synoptic and mesoscale systems including fronts, precipitation, and other extremes. herein one role of rcms is the study of climate processes. another is the input that can be provided for impact studies.
What the discussion in this section is meant to?
in a manner analogous to the previous section, the discussion in this section is meant to briefly describe the considerations typically in place within a gcm that account for the simulation of frozen hydrometeors in the atmosphere, both cloud ice and precipitating frozen particles
What relevant concepts and important distinctions must be observed?
relevant concepts and important distinctions include convective versus nonconvective/stratiform clouds, diagnostic versus prognostic parameterizations, single versus multiple hydrometeor species, and single versus multimoment characterizations
What would be an overview In GCMs?
overview in gcms, the atmospheric processes associated with convective clouds and nonconvective clouds are artificially separated into cumulus convection and stratiform cloud schemes
in a manner analogous to the previous section, the discussion in this section is meant to briefly describe the considerations typically in place within a gcm that account for the simulation of frozen hydrometeors in the atmosphere, both cloud ice and precipitating frozen particles. relevant concepts and important distinctions include convective versus nonconvective/stratiform clouds, diagnostic versus prognostic parameterizations, single versus multiple hydrometeor species, and single versus multimoment characterizations. these issues are highlighted below and then the features of the ice-cloud parameterizations for the gcms examined in this study are briefly described. 3.1. overview in gcms, the atmospheric processes associated with convective clouds and nonconvective clouds are artificially separated into cumulus convection and stratiform cloud schemes. for processes such as cumulus convection and cloud microphysics that occur at scales smaller than the gcm grid spacing (typically 50-200 km), specific cloud variables are determined as a function of variables that are defined at the grid scale, leading to a so-called ''parameterization.'' most gcms (excluding crm-like frameworks described below) parameterize deep convection on the basis of a convective mass fluxes approach. in this approach, temperature and humidity profiles are adjusted to account for heat sources and moisture sinks directly induced by the convective mass flux arakawa and schubert 1974; gregory and rowntree 1990; tiedtke 1989; zhang and mcfarlane 1995]. important to note is that owing to the observed small spatial scales of cumulus convection, the influence they have on cloudiness and thus radiation has often been neglected with the main objective only being their direct impact on humidity and temperature via latent heating. owing to the large spatial scales of stratiform clouds, gcms have generally accounted for ''cloudiness,'' and its effect on radiation, via this part of the model's parameterization. studies have shown that nonconvective stratiform clouds (e.g., widespread precipitating anvil clouds and cirrus outflow) can be produced by the detrainment of condensed water from cumulus convection. such connections within a modeling context have been taken into account by coupling stratiform cloud and cumulus convection processes in gcms tiedtke 1993]. more specifically, a link is made by including the effects of convection on cloud generation (i.e., convective detrainment as a source of largescale cloud) and allowing dissipation of cloud particles directly during their formulation. this technique originates from attempts by arakawa and schubert [1974] to allow detrainment from convective cumulus towers to serve as a source for nonconvective stratiform clouds. in general, nonconvective stratiform clouds and their condensates are formed, maintained and dissipated by many processes such as small-scale turbulence, large-scale vertical motion, convection and cloud microphysical processes. therefore, any coupling between convective and stratiform clouds requires reliable parameterizations of microphysical processes within the model's nonconvective regions of stratiform clouds. when modeling ice clouds, several processes must be considered in cloud schemes: the formation (e.g., ice nucleation, water vapor deposition) and possible sedimentation of cloud condensates, the growth and interactions (e.g., deposition and riming, aggregation) and falling out of precipitation, the evaporation/sublimation of both clouds and precipitation, and possibly advection of the cloud condensates. owing to computational considerations as well as our incomplete knowledge of cloud-ice and related fields and their associated processes, most gcms utilize fairly simple representations of ice processes. figure 6 is a highly simplified schematic illustrating the most rudimentary features and considerations in these representations. it mainly distinguishes the highly simplified forms in typical gcm (e.g., figure 3) used for global weather forecasting as well as many forms of climate simulation (figure 6, left) versus a somewhat common next level of sophistication (figure 6, right). in the former, there is consideration of only a single species of condensate, ''floating'' cloud ice. in this study, we use the term ''floating'' to distinguish it from precipitating ice flux, but acknowledge that a number of climaterelevant gcms do allow their cloud ice to undergo sedimentation. processes within the parameterization, relying on the large-scale fields, lead to the development and dissipation of the clouds. in some cases, the processes are treated rather empirically, and are implicit, in others they are more explicitly represented jakob 2002]. important in this class of parameterizations is that a fraction of condensate is typically assumed to have grown to a mass/particle size large enough to be considered precipitation, and is assumed to immediately fall out, albeit it can moisten lower layers through evaporation in this fall out process. in such cases, the gcm typically carries two primary cloud variables, horizontal cloud fraction and cloud condensate mass, where the latter is considered floating cloud ice. such a formulation is also referred to as a single-moment cloud scheme,
The sign on precipitation is positive for all three crops and is negative on temperature, indicating what?
the sign on precipitation is positive for all three crops and is negative on temperature. this indicates that crop yields increase with more rainfall and decrease with higher temperatures, holding acreage constant and after controlling for a deterministic time trend that may serve as a proxy for the non-stochastic portion 11 of the advance of agricultural technology. higher temperatures positively impact soybean yields (cobb-douglas estimate insignificant) and negatively impact wheat yields
The coefficients on the deterministic time trend are positive and significant as expected for all crops, except the Cobb-Douglas estimates for which two crops?
the coefficients on the deterministic time trend are positive and significant as expected for all crops, except the cobb-douglas estimates for cotton and wheat
For corn yields, the percentage effects of changes in climate estimated by Cobb-Douglas are higher or lower than the linear estimates?
for corn yields, the percentage effects of changes in climate estimated by cobb-douglas are higher than the linear estimates
crop yield production function estimates after controlling for random effects, the mles of the f(x, part of the crop production functions are displayed in table 3. two specifications are tested, linear and cobb-douglas, and for precipitation and temperature for corn, cotton and sorghum these forms give similar results. the sign on precipitation is positive for all three crops and is negative on temperature. this indicates that crop yields increase with more rainfall and decrease with higher temperatures, holding acreage constant and after controlling for a deterministic time trend that may serve as a proxy for the non-stochastic portion 11 of the advance of agricultural technology. higher temperatures positively impact soybean yields (cobb-douglas estimate insignificant) and negatively impact wheat yields. the coefficients on the deterministic time trend are positive and significant as expected for all crops, except the cobb-douglas estimates for cotton and wheat. this may come from the tendency of cobb-douglas forms to pick up curvature because this form is nonlinear over a wide range of parameter values, and may indicate a declining rate of increase in the effect of technology on yield rather than an actual negative impact of technology the coefficients for rainfall and temperature can be converted to elasticities by multiplying by sample average climate and dividing by average yield. these elasticities are reported in table 4. for corn yields, the percentage effects of changes in climate estimated by cobb-douglas are higher than the linear estimates. elasticities for the other crops are mixed, with uniformly high elasticities being measured for both rainfall and temperature on sorghum. a test of model adequacy before considering variability estimates in the next section, it is worthwhile to test the adequacy of the panel production function models. the classical assumption of the random effects model is that the errors are region specific. the significance of a deterministic time trend along with the other stationary variables, raises a question whether region production function errors might also be time specific. if serial correlation was previously ignored, estimates in table 3 could be consistent but inefficient, with biased standard errors. since random region effects are identified in table 2, it is appropriate to test for serial correlation jointly with this information. baltagi and li present a series of tests for serial correlation that 12 are carried out jointly with various assumptions concerning region effects. their lagrange multiplier (lm) test for zero first-order serial correlation assuming random region effects, is the same whether the alternative is ar(1) or ma(1) (baltagi, pp.91-93), which is fortunate as we have no way of testing which is the appropriate alternative. for ar(1) serial correlation, a new specification of the error terms in equation (4) are as an ar(1) process with the null hypothesis is the restriction
The epistemic community witnessed the development of which type of simulation model?
the epistemic community of global climate modelling the 1960s and 1970s had witnessed the development of the first computer-based simulation models
Who created the initial models?
these models were constructed initially by meteorologists and atmospheric scientists
the epistemic community of global climate modelling the 1960s and 1970s had witnessed the development of the first computer-based simulation models of a universal and globally-connected climate system75. originally an extension of numerical weather prediction models, these new climate-oriented models allowed experiments with global models to be performed in virtual reality which were not possible in physical reality. these models were constructed initially by meteorologists and atmospheric scientists in a small number of research centres in the usa, uk and germany. they were later joined by oceanographers, atmospheric chemists and biologists as the models extended their representation from simply the climate system (initially the atmosphere) to the deeply coupled components of the earth system. this move was encapsulated in nasa's 1988 report earth system science: a closer view the so-called 'bretherton report'76. the report was leadauthored by francis bretherton, an applied mathematician and atmospheric scientist, and the goal of this new scientific mission was "to obtain a scientific understanding of the entire earth system on a global scale" and predictions were to be secured by using "quantitative models of the earth system to identify and simulate global trends"77
What is the preferd method for comparing patent flow between countrys?
a negative binomial regression model, which tests and corrects for over-dispersion
Where will the patent be filed?
usually, the inventor's country
How can you get more precise data regarding patients between countries?
he data are highly over dispersed with a sample variance that is on average 10 times greater than the mean. for this reason, we use a negative binomial regression model, which tests and corrects for over-dispersion. following branstetter (2001), we run the regressions with the number of patents pijt
a notable feature of our data is that most patents are only filed in one country (usually, the inventor's country), implying that the patent flow between two countries in a given year frequently equals zero. as shown in table 4, the proportion of zeros in the data sets ranges from 68% to 81%, depending on the technology. therefore, the use of ols may generate inefficient estimates. the poisson distribution would be too restrictive, as it imposes a mean that is equal to the variance. in our case, the data are highly over dispersed with a sample variance that is on average 10 times greater than the mean. for this reason, we use a negative binomial regression model, which tests and corrects for over-dispersion. following branstetter (2001), we run the regressions with the number of patents pijt
What plays plays an essential role in the organic matter removal process?
the floc in activated sludge plays an essential role in the organic matter removal process
How the flocculation mechanism, which in water treatment is reached at the expense of adding chemical products, occurs?
the flocculation mechanism, which in water treatment is reached at the expense of adding chemical products, occurs by entirely natural mechanisms in biological sewage treatment
Upto what % the floc matrix can rapidly absorb the soluble and particulate BOD entering the biological reactor through ionic interactions.
the floc matrix can rapidly absorb up to 40% of the soluble and particulate bod entering the biological reactor through ionic interactions
in some treatment processes, such as activated sludge, the organisms concentrate and form a broader structural unit that is called a floc although microorganisms are the agents in bod removal, the floc in activated sludge plays an essential role in the organic matter removal process. it is not only the property of the heterotrophic organisms in stabilising organic matter that makes the activated sludge process efficient. also of fundamental importance is the property shown by the main microorganisms to organise themselves in the structural unit of a floc, which is capable of being separated from the liquid by the simple physical mechanism of sedimentation, in separate settling units. this separation allows the final effluent to be clarified (with reduced concentrations of suspended organic matter). the quality of the final effluent is therefore characterised by low values of soluble bod (removed in the reactor) and of suspended bod (flocs removed in the final settling unit). the flocculation mechanism, which in water treatment is reached at the expense of adding chemical products, occurs by entirely natural mechanisms in biological sewage treatment. the floc represents a heterogeneous structure that contains the adsorbed organic matter, inert material from the sewage, microbial material produced, and alive and dead cells. the size of the floc is regulated by the balance between the forces of cohesion and shear stress caused by the artificial aeration and agitation (la rivi'ere, 1977). among the microorganisms that constitute the floc, besides the bacteria and protozoa, fungi, rotifers, nematodes and occasionally even insect larvae can be found (branco, 1978). the floc matrix can rapidly absorb up to 40% of the soluble and particulate bod entering the biological reactor through ionic interactions. the particulate material is hydrolysed by exoenzymes before it is absorbed and metabolised by the bacteria. considering that the size of a floc varies between 50 and 500 u m, there will be a marked gradient of bod and oxygen concentrations from the external microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 313
How does climate warming affect energy demand and prices?
with climate warming energy demands and prices are likely to increase in warmer months from higher temperatures
To what extent has climate warming affected California?
with climate warming, california loses snowpack that has functioned historically as a seasonal reservoir to delay runoff, but considerable energy storage and generation capacities remain available
Can current storage and generation capacities fully compensate for snowpack loss?
thus, current storage and generation capacities can compensate for some snowpack loss
with climate warming energy demands and prices are likely to increase in warmer months from higher temperatures. ebhom employed recorded real-time energy prices for finding revenue curves which define the relation between monthly energy generation and energy price. the prices used here are from 2005-2008 which do not exactly match energy prices of the 1985 to 1998. this might cause some inaccuracies in ebhom's estimation of revenues and energy prices. however, this limitation might not affect other results (generation, spill, and storage) much as the energy price trends are similar between years. application of longer-period price data sets in future might improve the accuracy of model results. for this application it was assumed inflow distributions adhere to a fixed seasonal pattern. inflow distributions are likely to be more local and vary more between years. here, the model optimizes revenue based on its perfect information about the year's hydrological pattern. such management is impossible in practice. 6 conclusions in absence of detailed information about the available energy storage capacity at high-elevation in california, this study applied a simple low-resolution approach for estimating the adaptability of california's high-elevation hydropower generation to climate warming. substituting the estimated energy content of runoff water inflows and storage for these relatively high-head hydropower units and estimating seasonal inflow distribution patterns by elevation band allowed preliminary optimizationdriven monthly system operations modeling of more than 137 hydropower plants with various climate changes. with climate warming, california loses snowpack that has functioned historically as a seasonal reservoir to delay runoff, but considerable energy storage and generation capacities remain available. the ebhom's results show that most extra runoff in winter from climate warming can be accommodated by the available storage capacity at high-elevation sites for average years. lower-elevation reservoirs, constructed primarily for water supply, already have substantial re-regulation capacity for seasonal flow adjustments (tanaka et al. 2006 and operating rules should change with climate warming to adapt to changes in hydrology (medellin-azuara et al. 2008 ). generally, climate warming alone, without changes in total runoff, reduces highelevation hydropower generation and revenue, due solely to changes in seasonal runoff timing which increase energy spill from the system due to limited energy storage and generation capacities. energy spills increase dramatically under wet and warming-only scenarios with existing storage and generation capacities. more storage capacity would increase revenues but might not be cost effective. storing water in reservoirs helps shift energy runoff reductions to months with lower energy prices to reduce economic losses. more generation capacity also increases revenues by reducing energy spill. annual marginal benefits of capacity expansion are higher for storage than for generation. nevertheless, current storage and generation capacities give the system some flexibility to adapt to climate change. although the dry scenario examined in this study has 20% less runoff than the base historical hydrology, system-wide, revenues decrease by less than 14% through optimally re-operating storage and generation facilities within existing capacities. thus, current storage and generation capacities can compensate for some snowpack loss.
In which country corn production is heavily subsided?
in the united states, corn production is heavily subsidized
What contributes to the toxic environment?
contributor to the toxic environment are government agriculture subsidies for specific crops in many parts of the world
Which is essentially replaced sugar?
the use of hfcs in our food has essentially replaced sugar
another contributor to the toxic environment are government agriculture subsidies for specific crops in many parts of the world, including the united states. these subsidies guide production, which in turn influences the behavior of the food industry.27 for example, in the united states, corn production is heavily subsidized, which makes the production of high fructose corn syrup extremely inexpensive, leading to its common use in processed foods. this has been hypothesized as a contributor to the obesity epidemic because the use of hfcs in our food has essentially replaced sugar and is now found in thousands of food products.28
Which species are more vulnerable species to climate change?
marginal species with disjointed ranges, or those occurring predominantly in western arid areas, likely to be the most exposed part of south africa
What are the reasons why species migration may limit expansion?
it depends on successful fecundity, dispersal, recruitment, and growth, all of which are dependent on climate, land use and biotic interactions
our analysis suggests that marginal species are not always the most sensitive to global climate change as sensitivity is strongly related to exposure, niche breadth and range size. marginal species, like several mediterranean species, were projected to lose little current suitable habitat and gain potential new suitable habitats. however, range expansions (especially for southern species) should be accepted with caution owing to several limitations of niche-based models. for instance, projected range expansion for the southernmost species of our study area may be exaggerated by extrapolating species distributions into non-analogue warm future climates. indeed, our models do not take into account their upper temperature limits as these are currently out of our study range, which could lead to modelling using truncated temperature response curves. finally, species migration may drastically limit expansion as it depends on successful fecundity, dispersal, recruitment, and growth, all of which are dependent on climate, land use and biotic interactions. generally, our results concur with analyses for south africa, in which the most vulnerable species to climate change were either marginal species with disjointed ranges, or those occurring predominantly in western arid areas, likely to be the most exposed part of south africa (erasmus
What does the ecological niche models also assume?
ecological niche models also assume niche conservatism (38), the notion that the niche envelope is a fixed and immutable characteristic of a species, unchanging over space and time
What does the assumption justify?
this assumption justifies using correlative niche models for a species from some locations to extrapolate its distribution to other locations that have not been surveyed
What does the rate of current and future environmental change exceeds?
it is often argued that the rate of current and future environmental change exceeds the capacity of most plant and animal species to adjust evolutionarily (40
ecological niche models also assume niche conservatism (38), the notion that the niche envelope is a fixed and immutable characteristic of a species, unchanging over space and time. this assumption justifies using correlative niche models for a species from some locations to extrapolate its distribution to other locations that have not been surveyed. we know, of course, that local populations may be differentially adapted to local conditions (39). the assumption that the niche space of a species is stable over time is more germane to the use of sdms to project responses to climate change. it is often argued that the rate of current and future environmental change exceeds the capacity of most plant and animal species to adjust evolutionarily (40). this may be true for long-lived species with limited dispersal, but there is mounting evidence that some short-generation species are capable of rapid evolutionary change (41). rapid behavioral adjustments to changing environmental conditions may also be commonplace. the observation that some bird species are advancing the timing of spring migration or breeding activity in association with warmer temperatures (42) indicates a capacity to adjust to changing conditions within localities without shifting distributions. it is not obvious, however, that such behavioral adjustments represent viable adaptations to climate change, especially if, for example, the breeding phenology of the birds no longer matches the flushes of prey abundance required to feed offspring. uncertainties the future is by definition uncertain. using models to project probable futures based on current information and understanding entails additional uncertainties. some of these uncertainties are due to the assumptions underlying a modeling approach; to the extent that these assumptions are violated, uncertainty in the model projections is increased. but there are other sources of uncertainty as well (23, 43, 44).
What was the quality of the fit to the peat sequence data?
the peat accumulation model provided excellent fits to all dated peat sequences (fig. 1
What variably symbolizes the inital peat formation rate?
initial peat formation rate, p
What was the average rate of decline of peat formation in the fuscum stage?
relative to the start of the stage, peat (c) formation, pce bct, declined on average by 66% in the fuscum stage
the peat accumulation model provided excellent fits to all dated peat sequences (fig. 1). discontinuities in the profiles were reflected in the model by marked changes in parameter values between stages (tables 1 and 2), particularly for initial peat formation rate, p and its time-dependent modifier, b within each stage, b was generally at least an order of magnitude larger and had proportionately smaller confidence intervals than the proportional decay coefficient, a (tables 1, 2). relative to the start of the stage, peat (c) formation, pce bct, declined on average by 66% in the fuscum stage, 29% in the rubellum-fuscum stage and 58% in the magellanicum stage. the results at store mosse indicate that height growth and c sequestration were controlled primarily by changes in peat formation in the acrotelm, and only secondarily by peat decay losses in the catotelm. reconstructions of peat accumulation based on the parameter estimates show two distinct behaviours (fig. 2). carbon sequestration, and to a lesser extent height
Why is easier to relate directly to temperature with magnesium-calcium temperature curves?
magnesium-calcium temperature curves have been found to correlate with the more established oxygen isotope curves (47-49), but unlike oxygen isotope values, they are unaffected by changes in global ice volume and are therefore easier to relate directly to temperature
What was the software used to digitized figure 1 C of Lear et al. (47)?
we digitized figure 1 c of lear et al. (47) with the software windig (50) and used linear interpolation to estimate paleotemperature for sample ages between digitized points of this curve
we traced temperature change over the past 40 million years using the curve published by lear et al. (47) on the basis of mg  ca thermometry from multiple deep-sea sites. magnesium-calcium temperature curves have been found to correlate with the more established oxygen isotope curves (47-49), but unlike oxygen isotope values, they are unaffected by changes in global ice volume and are therefore easier to relate directly to temperature. we digitized figure 1 c of lear et al. (47) with the software windig (50) and used linear interpolation to estimate paleotemperature for sample ages between digitized points of this curve. this temperature curve is a long-term smoothed record suited for reconstructing the broad features of a  12degc cooling over the cenozoic. although there are interesting changes in climate that occur at higher frequencies than can be resolved with this record, the scope and resolution of the lear et al. (47) curve match that of the fossil record of body size evolution in poseidonamicus note that mg  ca values reflect the temperature of the high-latitude source waters for deep-water
Does the range of validity of approximate parameterizations vary  ?
the range of validity of these parameterizations is not tightly constrained and may be valid only in certain regions or seasons
What is th purpose of downscaling techniques ?
downscaling techniques can be classified into two groups: simulations with regional climate models, and statistical/empirical models that link large-scale climate fields with local or regional climate variables kidson and thompson 1998; murphy 1999
estimations of future climate changes due to anthropogenic forcing are performed with the help of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (gcms), which typically have a horizontal resolution of a few hundred kilometers. however, regional climate is greatly influenced by local features such as mountains or land use, which are not well represented in gcms because of their coarse resolution. downscaling techniques have been used in the last decades to overcome this problem in studies of climate change at regional scales hewitson and crane 1996]. downscaling techniques can be classified into two groups: simulations with regional climate models, and statistical/empirical models that link large-scale climate fields with local or regional climate variables kidson and thompson 1998; murphy 1999]. the use of a highresolution regional climate model (rcm), nested into a gcm which provides the boundary conditions required by the rcm, has experienced enormous growth over the past decade. giorgi and mearns [1999] and wang et al. [2004] offer recent reviews on the application of this particular approach, which has emerged in the wake of the increasing computational power and the availability of numerical model source code for the research community. rcms provide a clear added value with respect to simulations with coarse resolution models castro et al. 2005]. despite the higher resolution of rcms, a number of physical processes that occur at subgrid scale have to be represented in the model by approximate parameterizations, which in many cases have a semiempirical basis. the range of validity of these parameterizations is not tightly constrained and may be valid only in certain regions or seasons. since rcms are usually applied to limited regions, of the order of a few thousand km2, it may be assumed that a
What phase is comprised of oxidation, growth, reproduction, and energy release?
organisms oxidise the organic matter, with the production of more cellular matter (growth and reproduction) and energy release. this is the synthesis phase
What is one of the main considerations in designing sewage treatment systems?
when the availability of organic matter is sufficient, the bacteria are in a growing phase, and when it becomes insufficient, the bacteria enter a decreasing stage. this consideration is of large importance in sewage treatment, in which systems can be designed to operate with a high or low organic matter supply for the bacteria
Which type of reactor allows for phase adjustment along the inlet and outlet of the reactor itself?
in a plug-flow reactor, the reaction time is associated with the physical location in the reactor. hence, the sequencing between the two phases can take place along the inlet and outlet of the reactor
as already mentioned, heterotrophic organisms use organic matter as a form of condensed energy that is necessary for their various metabolic processes, including growth and reproduction. with the use of oxygen (aerobic conditions - equation 9.1) or another electron acceptor (e.g. nitrate, in anoxic conditions - equation 9.8), these organisms oxidise the organic matter, with the production of more cellular matter (growth and reproduction) and energy release. this is the synthesis phase. if the substrate available in the medium starts to become scarce, such as in sewage treatment, in which organic matter is progressively removed, the microorganisms need to find other organic matter or condensed energy sources. the main substrate directly available is their own cellular protoplasm, which the cells start to use according to equation 9.10. in this stage, the balance is negative, that is, there is a reduction in the cellular matter or the bacterial concentration in the medium, characterising the endogenous respiration stage. it is thus seen that there is a close relation between the substrate concentration in the medium, or the available food, and the microorganisms' population. when the availability of organic matter is sufficient, the bacteria are in a growing phase, and when it becomes insufficient, the bacteria enter a decreasing stage. this consideration is of large importance in sewage treatment, in which systems can be designed to operate with a high or low organic matter supply for the bacteria. besides, the form in which the two phases are located in the biological reactor depends on its hydraulic configuration (see chapter 8). in a plug-flow reactor, the reaction time is associated with the physical location in the reactor. hence, the sequencing between the two phases can take place along the inlet and outlet of the reactor. in a complete-mix reactor, the concentration of the substrate and the bacteria are the same at any point in the reactor. thus, the relative predominance of one phase or another will depend on the prevalent concentration of the substrate in the reactor. if it is high, the synthesis phase prevails in the reactor as a whole. however, if the substrate concentration is low, the balance favours the mechanisms of endogenous respiration. a simplified scheme of the heterotrophic bacterial metabolism is presented in figure 9.6.
What does S03 parameterization employ? Simplified non-rotational hydrostatic wave dynamics
the s03 parametrization employs simplified hydrostatic non-rotational wave dynamics
What does the S03 parameterization describe? Describes the vertical evolution of a broad, constant and isotropic spectrum of gravity waves
it describes the vertical evolution of a broad, constant, isotropic spectrum of gravity waves, emanating from the troposphere, and their dissipation
how is the resulting momentum flow deposition used? is it used to calculate non-orographic GWD trends
the resulting momentum flux deposition is used to compute the non-orographic gwd tendencies
the s03 parametrization employs simplified hydrostatic non-rotational wave dynamics, making it suitably efficient for operational use. it describes the vertical evolution of a broad, constant, isotropic spectrum of gravity waves, emanating from the troposphere, and their dissipation. the resulting momentum flux deposition is used to compute the non-orographic gwd tendencies. the scheme is sufficiently simple that, once the properties of the launch spectrum are selected, in practice the only tuneable parameters are the launch level and the total amount of launch momentum flux. the s03 scheme was implemented in cy35r3 of the ecmwf integrated forecast system (ifs), becoming operational in september 2009, replacing rayleigh friction. the resulting january and july climatology of zonal-mean temperature and zonal winds show a good qualitative agreement with the sparc climatology, in particular, a cold summer polar upper mesosphere and a warm winter polar stratosphere, consistent with a realistic meridional circulation being driven by the inclusion of strong gwd. other important features are: i) realistic winter and summer mid-latitude jets, ii) a separated (warm) southern winter polar stratopause in july (which was erroneously not apparent in january), iii) realistic parametrized gwd, iv) reasonable stationary planetary wave structure and stationary wave driving in july, and an underestimate of the generation of stationary wave activity in the troposphere and stationary wave driving in january, v) a reasonable representation of the variability of tropical stratospheric circulation, although the westerly component of the sao is missing, and vi) a good agreement with the horizontal distribution of momentum flux observed by crista-2, and vii) a reduction in short-range high resolution forecast error in the upper stratosphere (which is the uppermost analysis constrained by observations). by contrast, the cy35r3rf climatology based on rayleigh friction is characterised by temperatures much too close to radiative equilibrium, consistent with unrealistically weak forcing of the mean flow. on time scales of weeks to months the troposphere is influenced by the stratosphere through the downward propagation of anomalies from the stratosphere (e.g. baldwin and dunkerton, 2001). these anomalies are forced by variations in the lower stratospheric wind and temperature structure influencing wave-mean flow interaction, e.g. the structure and strength of the winter westerly jet (boville, 1984). thus, the good representation of the middle atmosphere temperature and circulation
What are the climate variables most widely used to assess climate change and its impact?
methodology temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation are the three most widely used climate variables to assess climate change and its impact
What is the most important form of precipitation?
rainfall is the most important form of precipitation
What can be done to overcome the possible correlation among the independent variables?
this study considers only temperature and precipitation
methodology temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation are the three most widely used climate variables to assess climate change and its impact. however, solar radiation has a closer positive correlation with maximum temperature. in general, higher solar radiation leads to a higher maximum temperature and lower solar radiation leads to a lower minimum temperature because of radiative heating and cooling, respectively (peng et al., 2004). this shows the direct correlation between temperature and solar radiation. therefore, to overcome the possible correlation among the independent variables, this study considers only temperature and precipitation. rainfall is the most important form of precipitation in terms of meeting water requirement of agricultural crops. daily mean air temperature is the widely used temperature variable to assess the effects of global warming on grain yield. the use of mean air temperature assumes no
What is an observational record ?
decreasing trends in mid-latitude cyclones over the past decades have been identified in the observational record
What is an observational maps?
a study by zishka and smith (1980) using observational weather maps for north america found a significant decrease of 4.9 cyclones per decade in july and 9.0 cyclones per decade in december for 1950
What are the trends?
canada during the winter. similar trends have been found in studies using meteorological reanalyses (i.e., assimilated meteorological data). gulev et al. (2001) found a decrease of 12.4 cyclones per decade in the northern hemisphere and 8.9 cyclones per decade over the atlantic ocean during winter 1958-1999. mccabe et al. (2001) found a significant decrease in cyclones at mid-latitudes (30o-60on) and an increase at high-latitudes (60o-90on) during winter 1959-1997. previous studies have generally focused on winter, the season with the strongest climate change signal. in this study we focus on summer, which is of most interest from an air quality standpoint
decreasing trends in mid-latitude cyclones over the past decades have been identified in the observational record. a study by zishka and smith (1980) using observational weather maps for north america found a significant decrease of 4.9 cyclones per decade in july and 9.0 cyclones per decade in december for 1950-1977. another study by wang et al. (2006) using surface pressure data for 1953-2002 identified a significant decreasing trend in cyclone activity along eastern canada during the winter. similar trends have been found in studies using meteorological reanalyses (i.e., assimilated meteorological data). gulev et al. (2001) found a decrease of 12.4 cyclones per decade in the northern hemisphere and 8.9 cyclones per decade over the atlantic ocean during winter 1958-1999. mccabe et al. (2001) found a significant decrease in cyclones at mid-latitudes (30o-60on) and an increase at high-latitudes (60o-90on) during winter 1959-1997. previous studies have generally focused on winter, the season with the strongest climate change signal. in this study we focus on summer, which is of most interest from an air quality standpoint.
what results and discussions have what focus?
these results and discussions are mainly focused on the impact of the configu91 ration changes on the model biases and climate sensitivity
what is shown in the particular 92?
it is shown in particular 92 that despite a significant impact on some biases in the present-day climate
by whom is the impact of the refinement of the horizontal zontal grid on atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region discussed?
is discussed 97 by cattiaux et al
these results and discussions are mainly focused on the impact of the configu91 ration changes on the model biases and climate sensitivity. it is shown in particular 92 that despite a significant impact on some biases in the present-day climate, the 93 climate sensitivity is weakly affected by the changes in grid configuration. addi94 tional results concerning the impact of changes in grid configuration are discussed 95 in companion papers in the same issue: the impact of the refinement of the hori96 zontal grid on the atmospheric variability in the north-atlantic region is discussed 97 by cattiaux et al. and results on the enso variability are shown by dufresne et 98 al. in an overview paper of the ipsl-cm5 model.1 99
What diverse groups use mangroves as their habitat?
while invertebrates and fish are highly diverse groups that are abundant in mangrove habitats, many species of reptiles (including turtles, crocodiles and lizards), birds and mammals also use mangroves as habitat
Describe what a mangrove is like?
the mangrove - salt marsh/salt flat habitat can be viewed as a complex connected mosaic of habitats that are intermittently accessible to mobile fauna with affinities to reefs and other subtidal habitats
Why are crabs an important part of the ecosystem?
crabs perform critical ecological functions, influencing forest structure by consuming propagules167, aiding in processing of leaf litter, oxygenating the sediments, and contributing to surface friction and thus to slowing water movement that facilitates fluxes of nutrient and other materials between mangrove sediments and tidal waters
mangrove forests and associated salt flats and salt marsh support a diverse and abundant fauna. while invertebrates and fish are highly diverse groups that are abundant in mangrove habitats, many species of reptiles (including turtles, crocodiles and lizards), birds and mammals also use mangroves as habitat145,6,154,108. many species of mobile fauna access mangrove and associated habitats seasonally when the tide permits, while others are resident. the mangrove - salt marsh/salt flat habitat can be viewed as a complex connected mosaic of habitats that are intermittently accessible to mobile fauna with affinities to reefs and other subtidal habitats118,159. these mobile fauna also have a role in the transfer of materials between habitats through grazing, predation, and excretion137,160. the contribution of animals to material exchange between mangroves and other adjacent habitats could be similar to or exceed the exchange of particulate and dissolved material with tidal flow137. some of the most conspicuous fauna in mangrove forests, due to their burrows, are crabs and mud lobsters. crabs perform critical ecological functions, influencing forest structure by consuming propagules167, aiding in processing of leaf litter, oxygenating the sediments, and contributing to surface friction and thus to slowing water movement that facilitates fluxes of nutrient and other materials between mangrove sediments and tidal waters141. crabs are consumed by large predatory fish160 but also produce copious larvae, which are an important food source for many juvenile fish part ii: species and species groups
What did the study evaluate?
use of a bayesian hierarchical model
Were the results significant?
the results demonstrate statistically significant links to sst indices, snowpack depth and gcm seasonahead forecasts of precipitation
this study investigated use of a bayesian hierarchical model to estimate annual flood risk based on climate indicators in comparison with traditional flood risk estimation. the results demonstrate statistically significant links to sst indices, snowpack depth and gcm seasonahead forecasts of precipitation. the bayesian hierarchical model allowed estimation of uncertainty bands for model parameters and flood risk estimates and detection of nonstationarity in flood risk. used in prediction mode, the climate indicators exhibited the ability to capture year to year variations in flood risk and to provide a reduction in the uncertainty accompanying the estimated value of the 100 year flood. in addition, in several years the conditional estimate of flood risks fell outside the uncertainty bounds of the traditional (unconditional) estimate, an indication of nonstationarity in flood risk at this location. there are two important implications of this work. first, forecasts of changes in the risk associated with the peak annual flood may provide value for reservoir managers and provide some impetus for managing flood risk dynamically, consistent with its variable nature. second, reduced uncertainty in the estimation of the 100 year flood, typically used as a design value in engineering, reduces the potential costs of overand under-design of flood mitigation infrastructure and land use planning. acknowledgments. this paper is funded by a grant/cooperative agreement from the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa), na050ar4311004. the views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of noaa or any of its sub-agencies.
What are the tactics to disentangle the effects of the two classes of factors?
two possible tactics to disentangle the effects of the two classes of factors could be via modeling of interactions between abiotic and biotic variables; or perhaps via hierarchical modeling
What is the assumption of both model calibration and transfer?
in contrast, however, both model calibration and transfer assume that the nature of the biotic interaction (the effect of the interactor on the focal species) does not vary
What is the status of the assumption?
this assumption sometimes is not reasonable, for example in mutualisms that switch to predator-prey relationships in parts of the ranges of the co-occurring species.91
therefore, including the distribution of an interacting species as a predictor variable (ideally its abundance) should allow for better estimation of the focal species' response curves for abiotic variables. two possible tactics to disentangle the effects of the two classes of factors could be via modeling of interactions between abiotic and biotic variables; or perhaps via hierarchical modeling.8,90notably, inclusion of biotic interactors as predictor variables offers a solution to the dilemma mentioned above regarding conflicts between the niche space assumption on one hand and the biotic noise assumption and human noise assumption on the other, potentially allowing unbiased characterization of the species' niche over a broader environmental domain. furthermore, inclusion of the biotic interactorasapredictorvariableshouldallowfortransferto places or time periods where the presence or abundance of the interactor differs from the calibration region and time. in contrast, however, both model calibration and transfer assume that the nature of the biotic interaction (the effect of the interactor on the focal species) does not vary. this assumption sometimes is not reasonable, for example in mutualisms that switch to predator-prey relationships in parts of the ranges of the co-occurring species.91
Why is equilibrium only temporary at best?
largely because climate change is an ongoing process to which plant responses will always lag 
international journal of plant sciences warmer than 5  c, undoubtedly contribute to the altitudinal gradients that are strongly related to vegetation (daubenmire and daubenmire 1968). the climatic basis of the distinctive vegetation zones in the west has been the subject of conjecture for decades. climate variables purported to control the distribution of plant communities, for instance, have included low temperatures for the upper altitudinal margins and moisture stress at the lower (larson 1930), the length of the frost-free season (baker 1944), the balance between temperature and precipitation (haig et al. 1941), and summer droughts (daubenmire 1956). our list of important variables emphasizes the complex nature of the interactions through which these intuitive effects might be expressed. species the random forests regression tree produced bioclimatic models of excellent fit. the errors of omission that accrue when a model falsely predicts absence approached zero, and errors of commission were less than 10%. while many ecologically plausible reasons exist for the errors of commission, experimental errors are the most plausible explanation for errors of omission. for judging fit, therefore, errors of omission are the most serious, and for these errors to approach zero in our analyses demonstrates the power of the regression tree to properly classify data. the models received strong verification when predicted distributions were compared to range maps (figs. 8-18), despite the drawbacks (fig. 6) of using range maps as a standard of excellence. still, for several of the species but most notably larix occidentalis (fig. 10) and quercus gambelii (fig. 11), the comparisons pinpointed lands where the climate should be suitable but where the species was either absent or present at frequencies so low as to escape representation in field plots. from the statistical perspective, disharmony of this type produces errors of commission. yet disharmony between range maps and predictions from well-fitted models is as likely to result from disequilibrium between the climate and plant distributions as from experimental errors. as discussed by ackerly (2003), equilibrium is only temporary at best, largely because climate change is an ongoing process to which plant responses will always lag (davis 1989; huntley
What is the comparison between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in Fig. 1 based on?
he comparison between cmip3 and cmip5 in fig. 1 is based on the actual cmip5 rcp data and the simple climate model magicc calibrated to 19 cmip3 models13,14and then run for the rcp scenarios
What does MAGICC provide for global temperature?
for global temperature, magicc provides a sufficiently accurate prediction of what cmip3 would have given for the rcps if they had run them
Where can differences arise from?
differences can however arise from the fact that cmip3 forcings were not fully documented
the comparison between cmip3 and cmip5 in fig. 1 is based on the actual cmip5 rcp data and the simple climate model magicc calibrated to 19 cmip3 models13,14and then run for the rcp scenarios. those projections were made before cmip5 data were available. for global temperature, magicc provides a sufficiently accurate prediction of what cmip3 would have given for the rcps if they had run them. although the calibration has some uncertainty for individual models, it is very small for the model mean. differences can however arise from the fact that cmip3 forcings were not fully documented. in addition, magicc assumes a zero mean volcanic forcing in the past and future, whereas many gcms assume volcanic forcing can only be negative. the difference between these assumptions could explain up to 0 2*c between magicc and cmip5. the robustness r used here is inspired by the ranked probability skill score27
in which year the chronologies used by Kaye and Swetnam confirmed that climatic variations?
the chronologies used by kaye and swetnam (1999), confirmed that climatic variations
when did the widespread surface fires in large numbers of livestock were introduced?
widespread surface fires in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries when large numbers of livestock were introduced
e1 we found that apaches may have increased fire frequencies during some periods, and altered the seasonal timing of a few fires. overall, however, the results were equivocal. even in this unique case study, where detailed independent sources of temporal and spatial evidence were available to assess possible native american influence on past fire regimes, it was not possible to strongly conclude that they significantly altered the character of fire regimes from what would have prevailed with lightning alone as an ignition source. a broader-scale study of fire histories within the sacramento mountains, including the chronologies used by kaye and swetnam (1999), confirmed that climatic variations (drought/wet years) were dominant controls of past fire regime variations at the landscape scale (brown et al. 2001). again, the most significant and demonstrable effect of humans on past fire regimes was the disruption of frequent, widespread surface fires in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries when large numbers of livestock were introduced, and organized fire suppression began.
How are ocean temperatures in NHMW affected by the North and South Pacific?
the response of ocean temperature to nhmw is dominated by the wave propagation and exhibits uniform warming in both the north and south pacific
How are the North Pacific millenial variations induced?
the north pacific millennial variations were induced by the atmospheric teleconnections with cooling during hs1 and yd and with warming during ba
Why is there early warming in the South Pacific?
the early warming in south pacific is due to oceanic teleconnections via wave propagations from atlantic into pacific through indian ocean
south (fig. s6). notably the zonal-average of pacific sst also exhibits the similar feature with greenland-like millennial variations in the north and antarctic-like warming trend in the south (fig. s7). the north pacific millennial variations were induced by the atmospheric teleconnections with cooling during hs1 and yd and with warming during ba. in contrast, the early warming in south pacific is due to oceanic teleconnections via wave propagations from atlantic into pacific through indian ocean [knutti et al., 2004; liu and alexander, 2007]. in the deep ocean, the response of ocean temperature to nhmw is dominated by the wave propagation and exhibits uniform warming in both the north and south pacific (fig. s3).
How to improve IWRM?
our research shows that cities with a high bci are those cities with high ambitions to improve iwrm, with an active civil society (involvement in voluntary work), in countries with greater prosperity (high gdp) and high governmental effectiveness (koop and van leeuwen 2015b 
What is the conclusions provided by Reckien?
similar conclusions have been provided by reckien et al. 2015 in an empirical analysis of urban adaptation and mitigation plans in european cities. our work is mainly based on an analysis of european cities
What is the starting point for sustainability?
there is a great need to assess more cities, especially in other world regions, as a starting point for sustainability transitions and to monitor their progress on the implementation of the sustainable development goals for better urban futures (un-habitat 2015 
our research shows that cities with a high bci are those cities with high ambitions to improve iwrm, with an active civil society (involvement in voluntary work), in countries with greater prosperity (high gdp) and high governmental effectiveness (koop and van leeuwen 2015b ). similar conclusions have been provided by reckien et al. 2015 in an empirical analysis of urban adaptation and mitigation plans in european cities. our work is mainly based on an analysis of european cities. there is a great need to assess more cities, especially in other world regions, as a starting point for sustainability transitions and to monitor their progress on the implementation of the sustainable development goals for better urban futures (un-habitat 2015 ).
What is the growing consensus between different disciplines?
there is growing consensus among different disciplinary perspectives that vulnerability includes both exposure and sensitivity to multiple drivers of change, as well as the capacity to adapt to change
What impressive analogy do they provide?
they provide a striking analogy: 'the types of knowledge we have been emphasizing for the past decade or so, despite their significant scientific value, are not those we will most need in dealing with the challenge of climate change. it's as if the national institute of health focused its research on making better projections of when people will die, rather than seeking practical ways to increase health and life expectancy.' (p. 28
What is suggested by this review?
this review suggests that indices designed deductively from integrated conceptual frameworks have potential to illuminate the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity
this review suggests a number of reasons why hazard or impact modelling should not be confused with more integrated approaches to vulnerability research when providing policy advice. there is growing consensus among different disciplinary perspectives that vulnerability includes both exposure and sensitivity to multiple drivers of change, as well as the capacity to adapt to change. contrary to this conceptual understanding, vulnerability research has been dominated by applications of hazard/impact modelling that tend to focus on exposure and sensitivity, especially applications that define exposure and sensitivity in narrow technical terms. narrowly defining exposure and sensitivity as the basis of adaptation to predictable sources of risk within existing patterns of activity overlooks fundamental limits to predictability in the global climate system. as pielke and sarewitz (2003) have pointed out, this has led to repeated overinvestment in climate prediction at the expense of research creating mitigation and adaptation options. they provide a striking analogy: 'the types of knowledge we have been emphasizing for the past decade or so, despite their significant scientific value, are not those we will most need in dealing with the challenge of climate change. it's as if the national institute of health focused its research on making better projections of when people will die, rather than seeking practical ways to increase health and life expectancy.' (p. 28) a tendency for hazard/impact modelling to focus on an arbitrary and narrow subset of the multiple emergent dimensions of vulnerability seems to be a feature of past applications rather than an intrinsic limitation of the method. understanding the emergent nature of vulnerability and integrating appropriate interdisciplinary solutions is difficult. the pressure to respond to rapidly evolving policy demand has led to vulnerability being equated with a narrow set of mostly biophysical or economic impacts predicted using pre-existing modelling systems. selectively and arbitrarily equating vulnerability with default model outputs tends to create a relevance gap between this type of science and the types of information required to prioritise adaptation responses throughout society. a focus on narrow technical responses can overlook more transformative and holistic opportunities to adapt, and disempower decision makers by focusing on drivers of change beyond their immediate influence. there is an urgent need to broaden the application of hazard/impact modelling, and to complement it with methods capable of identifying and enhancing diverse and transformative sources of adaptive capacity throughout society. this review suggests that indices designed deductively from integrated conceptual frameworks have potential to illuminate the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. in the next paper in this series nelson et al., 2010 ), we combine hazard and impact modelling with an holistic measure of the adaptive capacity created using rural livelihoods analysis. this approach is then used to provide preliminary insights into the vulnerability of australian rural communities to climate variability and change.
How are governments often organised in terms of policy domain?
governments are often organised sectorally, segmented in specialised policy domains. environment is separate from health, and health is separate from agriculture
Who deals with trade policy internationally?
the world trade organization (wto) deals with trade
How should the developing countries be better representated?
an agenda for developing countries must be put in place through global cooperation
coordination should form joined-up govern ments. governments are often organised sectorally, segmented in specialised policy domains. environment is separate from health, and health is separate from agriculture. this is true at all levels of government, including internationally, where fragmentation and policy contradictions are a serious problem. who deals with health, whereas the world trade organization (wto) deals with trade. each is implicated in the adjustment process and their actions will need to be coordinated. responding to the health eff ects of climate change extends beyond the environmental sector, but also involves the health sector, which needs to have a major role in the discourse around climate change. other institutional challenges relate to power and politics.146 global governance is characterised by a lack of democratic accountability and profound inequalities. this is most obviously true for organisations such as private funding bodies, but it is also true of intergovernmental organisations, including un bodies and the world bank and the international monetary fund. although these organisations might operate to increase the accountability of states, to whom the relevant international organisations are accountable is not always clear. also, developing countries are under-represented.20 diffi cult choices will have to be made by these institutions in relation to climate change, and these decisions are intensely political with important distributive eff ects. international organisations are not blind to the need to respond to perceived accountability defi cits. the wto, for example, has recently opened its hearings to the public for the fi rst time. also, the world bank established an inspection panel in 1993 to address the concerns of people aff ected by the bank projects and to ensure that the bank adheres to its operational policies and procedures during the design, preparation, and implementation phases of projects. although these small steps have many limitations, they are an acknowledgment that good governance matters internationally and that a response to accountability problems is possible. an agenda for developing countries must be put in place through global cooperation. representation on global task forces to assess the health eff ects of climate change is heavily skewed in favour of institutions of developed countries. in poor countries, health assessments and climate science and health surveillance research are a priority. our ability to develop an eff ective and fair institutional framework to respond to climate change will need to consider market failures and the role of a powerful transnational corporate sector. whether in the policy domain of energy, food, water, or medicines, transnational corporations are important and mainly unaccountable entities. we will need to design institutions that are more responsive to the needs of the poor and less to the fi nancial demands of big businesses.147 we will also need to reduce population growth, and help developing nations to fund services that will ensure that children are born by choice, not chance.
What was the climate in the area 30degS?
30degs, was an area predominantly dry year-round, with a short wet season in february (summerwet) but, being predominantly dry, a tropical xerophytic/desert, biome 3, would be expected
What biomes do generally moister conditions year round produce south of 40degS?
generally moister conditions exist year-round south of 40degs and would have allowed the development of warm mixed forests (biome 5) and temperate coniferous forests (biome 6) over southern patagonia
What kind of biome was predominant in Southeast Asia?
southeast asia was predominantly humid (rainforest) but with a short dry season in august (biomes 1 to 2
30degs, was an area predominantly dry year-round, with a short wet season in february (summerwet) but, being predominantly dry, a tropical xerophytic/desert, biome 3, would be expected. generally moister conditions exist year-round south of 40degs and would have allowed the development of warm mixed forests (biome 5) and temperate coniferous forests (biome 6) over southern patagonia. a plume of convective moisture extends across the opening central atlantic into w africa and across large tracts of the present-day sahara/sahel. northwestern africa was predominantly dry with a june - august wet season (summer wet, biome 2). to the south, the wet season commences over eastern parts of africa from around october, but high evaporation also occurs here. sw africa is very dry desert area (biome 3). southern africa is moist more-or-less year-round and would have supported temperate deciduous forests and warm mixed forests (biomes 5 and 6). southeast asia was predominantly humid (rainforest) but with a short dry season in august (biomes 1 to 2). india has year-round rain but evaporation exceeds precipitation for much of the year, making xerophytic flora the most likely. its wettest zone exists in the northeastern area, where evergreen forest could have grown. during djf, the northern polar lands of greenland, canada and usa, although receiving less precipitation, have much less evaporation. significant precipitation both here and in siberia is as winter snow. northern mid-latitudes have an excess of winter moisture in a zone extending almost as far south as 30degn. evaporation predominates from here to just north of the equator, and embracing northern and much of western africa, which
What is the most effective way to reduce the incidence of JE in humans?
vaccination is the most effective way to reduce the incidence of je in humans, yet it has no effect on the jev transmission cycle. vaccination of livestock, especially pigs, would in contrast reduce the amplification of the virus, the rate of mosquito infection, and subsequently the risk of transmission to humans
Which animal specially could be vaccinated to reduce the amplification of the JE virus?
accination of livestock, especially pigs, would in contrast reduce the amplification of the virus, the rate of mosquito infection, and subsequently the risk of transmission to humans. yet, vaccination of pigs is generally not used to prevent je because it is costly
Why does vaccination of pigs is not used to prevent JE?
yet, vaccination of pigs is generally not used to prevent je because it is costly, hardly feasible logistically, and not necessarily effective in piglets (they must be immunized after the disappearance of maternal antibodies) [6,79
vaccination is the most effective way to reduce the incidence of je in humans, yet it has no effect on the jev transmission cycle. vaccination of livestock, especially pigs, would in contrast reduce the amplification of the virus, the rate of mosquito infection, and subsequently the risk of transmission to humans. yet, vaccination of pigs is generally not used to prevent je because it is costly, hardly feasible logistically, and not necessarily effective in piglets (they must be immunized after the disappearance of maternal antibodies) [6,79]. moreover, pigs represent a relevant sentinel model, the surveillance of which could predict a potential je outbreak in a human population nearby immunizing sentinel pigs would also impede the detection of such a threat. other factors have strong effects on the jev and genotype circulation
What was the discovery of the article?
in summary, we found that the dynamic local-regression approach implemented in climatena can effectively downscale the gridded baseline data into scale-free point data with improved prediction accuracy for all climate variables
What does the software package do?
the software package facilitates access to climate data at both large scales (e.g. for continental species ranges and regional ecosystem characterization and modeling), but also at local management unit scales (e.g. to climatically characterize plot and sample data
What is the expectation for ClimateNA?
we hope that climatena will serve as a useful tool in climate related research and applications across north america under changing climate
in summary, we found that the dynamic local-regression approach implemented in climatena can effectively downscale the gridded baseline data into scale-free point data with improved prediction accuracy for all climate variables. the software package facilitates access to climate data at both large scales (e.g. for continental species ranges and regional ecosystem characterization and modeling), but also at local management unit scales (e.g. to climatically characterize plot and sample data). additions of derived biologically and ecologically relevant climate variables at monthly and seasonal scales provide more options for modellers to improve their biological, ecological and hydrological models. integration of historical, future and paleo climate data through the delta downscaling method provides convenience through integrating many climate data sources in one package. time-series functions, interactive map-based interface and raster data portals may save users the considerable effort of processing large volume of climate data. we hope that climatena will serve as a useful tool in climate related research and applications across north america under changing climate.
What does the author want to show in this section?
in this section we want to illustrate the functionality of the framework by applying it to an adaptation case study
What is the water from the Rhine used for?
the water of the river rhine is used for multiple purposes, inter alia to cool down power plants
What are the risks of shutting down power plants?
on the other hand, shutting down power plants when water becomes too hot can be a threat to energy security
in this section we want to illustrate the functionality of the framework by applying it to an adaptation case study. for the sake of exposition and due to space limitations, the analysis presented here is only a small part of a more extensive research project. the water of the river rhine is used for multiple purposes, inter alia to cool down power plants. cooling releases heat to the water body, imposing interference with the river ecosystem. on the other hand, shutting down power plants when water becomes too hot can be a threat to energy security. it is likely that this conflict intensifies under climate change. the question, in general, is how to manage cooling water, taking into account the ecological consequences and conflicting water uses. we break down some already existing institutions, potential adaptations, and barriers to adaptation by using core concepts of the framework. 13
Which parameter is frequently used to evaluate the ecological balance of a treatment system?
the vfa parameter is frequently used for the evaluation of this ecological balance
Name four short-chain volatile acids?
the most important components resulting from the biochemical decomposition of the organic matter are the short-chain volatile acids, such as formic, acetic, propionic, butyric and, in smaller amounts, valeric and isovaleric acids
What produces most of the methane during anaerobic digestion of organic compounds?
the volatile acids represent intermediate compounds, from which most of the methane is produced, through conversion by the methanogenic microorganisms
anaerobic digestion of organic compounds comprises several types of methanogenic and acidogenic microorganisms, and the establishment of an ecological balance among the types and species of anaerobic microorganisms is of fundamental importance to the efficiency of the treatment system. the vfa parameter is frequently used for the evaluation of this ecological balance. thevolatilefattyacidsareformed,asintermediateproducts,duringthedegradation of carbohydrates, proteins and lipids. the most important components resulting from the biochemical decomposition of the organic matter are the short-chain volatile acids, such as formic, acetic, propionic, butyric and, in smaller amounts, valeric and isovaleric acids. these low-molecular-weight fatty acids are named volatile acids because they can be distilled at atmospheric pressure. the volatile acids represent intermediate compounds, from which most of the methane is produced, through conversion by the methanogenic microorganisms. 668 anaerobic reactors
What kind of species were the first to go extinct as a result of global warming?
documented rapid loss of habitable climate space makes it no surprise that the first extinctions of entire species attributed to global warming are mountain-restricted species
What percentage of harlequin frogs disappeared in the Central and South American tropics?
among harlequin frogs in central and south american tropics, an astounding 67% have disappeared over the past 2030 years
Which recent weather trends contributed to shifting mid-elevation sites?
pounds et al. (2006) hypothesised that recent trends toward warmer nights and increased daytime cloud cover have shifted mid-elevation sites (1000-2400 m), where the preponderance of extinctions have occurred, into thermally optimum conditions for the chytrid fungus, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis
documented rapid loss of habitable climate space makes it no surprise that the first extinctions of entire species attributed to global warming are mountain-restricted species. many cloud-forest-dependent amphibians have declined or gone extinct on a mountain in costa rica (pounds et al. 1999, 2005). among harlequin frogs in central and south american tropics, an astounding 67% have disappeared over the past 2030 years. pounds et al. (2006) hypothesised that recent trends toward warmer nights and increased daytime cloud cover have shifted mid-elevation sites (1000-2400 m), where the preponderance of extinctions have occurred, into thermally optimum conditions for the chytrid fungus, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.
According to the article, what is the consequence of the rising tide?
as seas rise many areas of the coast will be inundated
The world is heating up because of climate change. What is the consequence of this for the global average sea level?
as the world warms, it was predicted in the third intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) report that global average sea levels may rise by between 7 and 36 cm by the 2050s, by between 9 and 69 cm by the 2080s and 30 - 80 cm by 2100
Where is the sea level expected to rise?
the predicted patterns show large increases in sea level in parts of the north pacific and to the west of greenland, but is should be noted that sea level rises are more difficult to predict than temperature rises
as seas rise many areas of the coast will be inundated. <s121>* with increasingly severe and frequent storms and wave damage, shoreline retreat will be accelerated. <s121>* catastrophic coastal inundation events may be caused by a combination of climate events such as heavy flooding, high tides, and windstorms in combination with higher seas and storm surges. this issue of how much of a low-lying shoreline retreats as sea levels rise is a complex one and depends very much on the behaviour of incoming currents, wave patterns, the structure, materials and form of the shoreline, and wave heights in that area and the care with which the coastline is managed. 1 while sea level is predicted to rise almost everywhere, there is considerable spatial variation resulting in part from whether the land itself is rising or sinking; in some regions the rise is close to zero, while others may experience as much as twice the global average value. the predicted patterns show large increases in sea level in parts of the north pacific and to the west of greenland, but is should be noted that sea level rises are more difficult to predict than temperature rises. 2 as the world warms, it was predicted in the third intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) report that global average sea levels may rise by between 7 and 36 cm by the 2050s, by between 9 and 69 cm by the 2080s and 30 - 80 cm by 2100. the majority of this change was predicted to result from the expansion of the warmer ocean water. however, in the past few years the phenomenal and increasing rate of land ice melt has made people rapidly revise upwards their estimates more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What needs to be understood to reduce uncertainty in regional projections?
understanding the mechanisms for circulation change is essential to reduce this uncertainty, but they have only begun to be explored
Name the factors that increase demand on computational resources?
first, internal variability has a very strong imprint on climate trends even on timescales as long as several decades and spatial scales as large as continents81. this calls for large ensemble simulations96. second, when spatial resolution is high (25-50 km), many phenomena are reasonably well simulated in gcms97, including tropical cyclones63,91 and extratropical weather regimes such as blocking98,99
Which models are useful to understand the role of smallscale processes in shaping the regional climate response?
regional models are useful to understand the role of smallscale processes in shaping the regional climate response
we have identified key physical mechanisms for regional climate change (fig. 5). the thermodynamic response to radiative forcing is best understood and most robust across models. examples include enhanced continental warming, polar amplification and the wet-gets-wetter effect. decomposition of rainfall change into thermodynamic and dynamic components shows that atmospheric circulation change is the main source of uncertainty in regional projections. understanding the mechanisms for circulation change is essential to reduce this uncertainty, but they have only begun to be explored. more research is needed on how aerosol forcing can induce regional atmospheric circulation change (for example, the asian summer monsoon). recent studies suggest that despite large uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing, there are robust planetary-scale response patterns, mediated by ocean coupling. with limited computational resources, it is critical to make optimal use of computing resources to advance regional climate change projections and to correctly assess uncertainties, reducing them when possible. there are a number of demands on computer and human resources (see figure). a variety of independent models, differing significantly in their underlying physics and numerics, is required to provide assessments of the range of possible climate change. models are also being developed that contain ever more complete representations of the climate system, including processes such as biogeochemical cycles, atmospheric chemistry and aerosols, clouds and convection, land processes and ice sheets. process-oriented experiments are needed to better understand model behaviour, including internal variability and the response to various radiative forcing. the following factors increase demands on computational resources. first, internal variability has a very strong imprint on climate trends even on timescales as long as several decades and spatial scales as large as continents81. this calls for large ensemble simulations96. second, when spatial resolution is high (25-50 km), many phenomena are reasonably well simulated in gcms97, including tropical cyclones63,91 and extratropical weather regimes such as blocking98,99. this makes higher resolution desirable. regional models are useful to understand the role of smallscale processes in shaping the regional climate response. these processes include orographic precipitation, snow-albedo feedback, land-sea breeze circulation systems, mesoscale convective systems, and ocean feedbacks on tropical cyclone intensity. orography and coastline geography unresolved by global models can introduce credibility into regional patterns obtained with downscaling techniques. such smaller-scale mechanisms need to be carefully evaluated to establish credibility100. we recommend the following modelling strategies to achieve more reliable regional climate projections. these recommendations contribute to the ongoing planning for the next phase of cmip and grand challenges of the world climate research programme: * to develop innovative experiments to shed light on atmospheric circulation response to radiative forcing, and to explore the sensitivity to ocean coupling, land surface processes and other important physical processes such as convection; * to perform large ensemble simulations to isolate forced change and internal variability, and estimate the probability distribution of regional change; * to exploit the emerging capability of high-resolution modelling to simulate important extreme phenomena such as tropical cyclones, and take advantage of resolved local geographical features such as the coastline and orography; * to run the models for scenario projections in initialized mode and verify their subseasonal to interannual climate predictions, and to test the models' skill in simulating important climate events such as mega droughts; * to explore model development practices that effectively incorporate insights from process-based model evaluation and integrate multiple coupled processes for overall physical consistency.
What is the current attitude for climate change in the US?
the political scientists just described and other analysts indicate that the republican (gop) shift to the right has exceeded the democratic shift leftward, and thus contributed disproportionately to this polarization
Who is looking into the group of GOP mega donors?
theda skocpol and alexander hertelfernandez
What is a shadow GOP?
a network of conservative mega-donors (led by the koch brothers) has created a shadow gop, reducing the influence of the republican national committee by funding a wide array of organizations (including americans for prosperity, a major force behind the tea party) that both support republican candidates and push them to endorse extremely conservative views
the political scientists just described and other analysts indicate that the republican (gop) shift to the right has exceeded the democratic shift leftward, and thus contributed disproportionately to this polarization.17 this tendency became especially apparent as the tea party-led anti-obama backlash, funded by conservative elites such as charles and david koch, helped push republicans further rightward.18 indeed, theda skocpol and alexander hertelfernandez document how a network of conservative mega-donors (led by the koch brothers) has created a shadow gop, reducing the influence of the republican national committee by funding a wide array of organizations (including americans for prosperity, a major force behind the tea party) that both support republican candidates and push them to endorse extremely conservative views.19
What can ethical climate expect to serve as?
expect ethical climate to serve as a mediator between ethical leadership and employee misconduct
What does Schneider 1983 suggest about climate perceptions?
schneider 1983 also suggests that climate perceptions mediate the relationship between the organizational context and individuals' behavior
What have organizational climates been found to do?
organizational climates have been found to play an important mediating role between organizational variables and relevant outcomes (e.g., hofmann and stetzer 1998 schminke et al., 2005 zohar and luria, 2005 
ethical climate will be negatively related to employee misconduct. further, we expect ethical climate to serve as a mediator between ethical leadership and employee misconduct. implicit in the early conceptualization of organizational climate is the mediating role of climates. litwin and stringer's 1968 seminal work proposes that organizational features such as leadership generate organizational climates that arouse different motivations within individuals that in turn are major drivers of outcomes for the organization as well as attitudes and behaviors of employees. they go on to state that ''the realities of the organization are understood only as they are perceived by members of the organization, allowing climate to be viewed as a filter through which objective phenomena must pass'' (p. 43). climates help explain the processes individuals use to make sense of their work environments. individuals do not respond directly to their work environments, rather they engage in sensemaking processes where they first perceive and then interpret their work environment (campbell et al. 1970 ). schneider 1983 also suggests that climate perceptions mediate the relationship between the organizational context and individuals' behavior. indeed, organizational climates have been found to play an important mediating role between organizational variables and relevant outcomes (e.g., hofmann and stetzer 1998 schminke et al., 2005 zohar and luria, 2005 ). in the case of ethical climate, we expect that ethical climate is one of the processes through which ethical leadership is related to employee misconduct.
what type of farming is considered to be relatively adaptable to climate change ?
aquaculture is generally considered to be relatively adaptable to climate change
By which year  aquaculture production  is expected to surpass capture harvests ?
aquaculture production has been steadily increasing since 1990 and is expected to surpass capture harvests by 2030
why climate change may  affect the type of species farmed ?
climate change may also affect the type of species farmed, with water temperatures becoming too warm for the culture of certain species, yet better suited for others
aquaculture is generally considered to be relatively adaptable to climate change, and is even recognized as a potential adaptation to help fisheries cope with the impacts of climate change. on a global basis, aquaculture production has been steadily increasing since 1990 and is expected to surpass capture harvests by 2030.(8)nonetheless, the aquaculture industry is concerned about how an increase in extreme events and shifts in wind patterns could affect the flushing of wastes and nutrients between farm sites and the ocean.(37)furthermore, higher water temperatures may increase the risk of disease and compromise water quality by affecting bacteria levels, dissolved oxygen concentrations and algal blooms.(8)climate change may also affect the type of species farmed, with water temperatures becoming too warm for the culture of certain species, yet better suited for others. the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands could also significantly affect atlantic fisheries, as salt marshes are an important source of organic matter for coastal fisheries and provide vital fish habitat. researchers have found that increasing
Whose results were similar to the ones yielded in the two cases?
wiebe and weaver
What happens when moisture advection is used without the wind feedback?
he thermohaline circulation still equilibrates to a level which is slightly stronger than its initial condition
Why does thermohaline circulation not equilibrate when moisture advection is used with the wind feedback?
the improved representation of hydrological processes and their feedbacks in the atmosphere and ocean models
our two cases, with a diffusive representation of moisture transport, yield results that are very similar to those of wiebe and weaver (1999). when moisture advection is used without the wind feedback, the thermohaline circulation still equilibrates to a level which is slightly stronger than its initial condition. the fact that this is not the case when the wind feedback is used must arise from the improved representation of hydrological processes and their feedbacks in the atmosphere and ocean models. figure 35a shows the meridional profile of the zonally-averaged dish in the atlantic ocean for all the global warming runs and their respective initial conditions, relative to 1528 m. the difference between the zonally-averaged dish at the latitude of the tip of africa and the latitude of deep water formation is also shown as a function of the equilibrium overturning rate in fig. 35b. the linear relationship between the strength of the overturning rate the uvic earth system climate model 39
Who provided the valuable insight into the climate history of the B.C.Yukon area?
les cwynar, university of new brunswick, fredericton, provided valuable insight into the climate history of the b.c.yukon area
Who helped to get the important recent material?
jerry osborne, geology and geophysics, university of calgary, helped me get important recent material
Whose review and discussions were helpful?
alwynne beaudoin's (archaeological survey, alberta) review was very helpful, as were her discussions about eastern b.c. records
acknowledgements i am most thankful to rolf mathewes, simon fraser university, burnaby, for taking the time to discuss aspects of the climate and vegetation record of british columbia and for a thorough and constructive review. alwynne beaudoin's (archaeological survey, alberta) review was very helpful, as were her discussions about eastern b.c. records. les cwynar, university of new brunswick, fredericton, provided valuable insight into the climate history of the b.c.yukon area. jerry osborne, geology and geophysics, university of calgary, helped me get important recent material. allen banner, research branch, ministry of forests, victoria checked over sections of the manuscript and helped
Write the benefits of On-farm testing?
on-farm testing is especially useful to obtain a critical mass of representative testing environments and production-system-relevant responses
Write the example for On-farm testing?
a one week earlier end of rains could have significantly more impact on a farmers' field where phosphorus deficiency delays development by up to two weeks relative to well fertilized research station fields
Write the quoation marked sentences?
waterlogging resistant sorghum population in mali, west africa
[table 1 here] multiple environment testing and farmer-participatory breeding selection for climate variability adaptation will require testing/selection in many selection for climate variability adaptation will require testing/selection in many environments which enhances the chances of sampling key stress environments. on-farm testing is especially useful to obtain a critical mass of representative testing environments and production-system-relevant responses (weltzien and christinck 2008). for example, a one week earlier end of rains could have significantly more impact on a farmers' field where phosphorus deficiency delays development by up to two weeks relative to well fertilized research station fields. multi-location replicated variety yield trials have been conducted in approximately multi-location replicated variety yield trials have been conducted in approximately 30 farmer-managed sites per year in the major sorghum production zone in mali over the past decade. these trials, involving farmers in the various steps of variety evaluation, have resulted in the identification and release of sorghum varieties and hybrids that 16 16 perform consistently better than local varieties over the wide range of production conditions encountered in the sudanian zone of mali (weltzien et al. 2008). one example of farmer-participatory selection for adaptation to a specific stress by one example of farmer-participatory selection for adaptation to a specific stress by using selection opportunities presented by natural occurring stresses is the "waterlogging resistant sorghum population in mali, west africa" (rattunde et al. 2009). the field where a random-mating sorghum population was grown was flooded for three weeks due to unusually heavy rains. selections from the more desirable plants that survived that year most likely possessed some tolerance to water logging as the entire field was flooded. the same year farmers expressed interest in having a sorghum variety for fields that tend to be inundated in years of heavy rainfall. the following year this "water-logged" cycle bulk was given to two farmers in different villages who sowed it in low-lying fields. one farmer selected panicles within it for use as seed the following year. the next year the population performed exceptionally well in inundated fields and many neighbors, especially women with low-lying fields, requested seed of the flooding resistant "variety".
Where is the model adopted from?
the model is adopted from a study on marine invasions (seebens et al. 2013) and slightly modified to capture the dynamics of alien plant invasions
What does the model presented here calculate?
the model presented here calculates the probability that a vascular plant species native to country i and non-native to country j is introduced to j and establishes a population within a time period
What does the model account for?
the model accounts for the fact that invasion is a multistage process (blackburn et al. 2011): for a successful invasion, (i) the species must be nonnative to the new country, (ii) it must be transported to that country, and (iii) it must be able to survive and reproduce in the new environment
model. the model is adopted from a study on marine invasions (seebens et al. 2013) and slightly modified to capture the dynamics of alien plant invasions. in particular, the environmental conditions and the vector considered in the model were adjusted. the model presented here calculates the probability that a vascular plant species native to country i and non-native to country j is introduced to j and establishes a population within a time period s the model accounts for the fact that invasion is a multistage process (blackburn et al. 2011): for a successful invasion, (i) the species must be nonnative to the new country, (ii) it must be transported to that country, and (iii) it must be able to survive and reproduce in the new environment. an independent probability is assigned to each of the three stages. the probability pij(alien) describes the likelihood that species native in country i are non-native in country j pij alien d th  1/4  1 th c dij
What is sensitivity?
sensitivity is a characteristic of a system and represents the 'dose-response' relationships between the exposure and the impacts
What is the adaptive capacity?
the adaptive capacity describes the ability of a system to modify its characteristics (e.g., an ecosystem changing its composition towards species more adapted to the new climate) or behaviour (e.g., a farmer choosing new crops better adapted to drought
What are determinants of sensitivity and adaptive capacity?
determinants of sensitivity and adaptive capacity can be endogenous to the system (e.g., the biological richness of an ecosystem; or wealth, social networks, technology and education for a human community) or exogenous (e.g., landscape connectivity at the margins of an ecosystem; national policies or global markets for a human community
sensitivity is a characteristic of a system and represents the 'dose-response' relationships between the exposure and the impacts. for example, the likelihood of infrastructure destruction because of flooding, or the changes in crop productivity caused by a decrease in precipitation. the adaptive capacity describes the ability of a system to modify its characteristics (e.g., an ecosystem changing its composition towards species more adapted to the new climate) or behaviour (e.g., a farmer choosing new crops better adapted to drought). determinants of sensitivity and adaptive capacity can be endogenous to the system (e.g., the biological richness of an ecosystem; or wealth, social networks, technology and education for a human community) or exogenous (e.g., landscape connectivity at the margins of an ecosystem; national policies or global markets for a human community). box 13 provides examples of indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity at the country scale. in addition to the potential impacts defined in figure 7, other types of impacts are considered by the ipcc and other authors (see figure 8). while potential impacts are the result of exposure and sensitivity without considering adaptation, the expected impacts are those that would occur after an autonomous adaptation of the system and the residual impacts after planned adaptation (fussel and klein 2006).
What should less emphasis be placed on?
although all research in this area is valuable, less emphasis probably should be placed on self-reported proenvironmental behavior and on lowghgimpact behaviors in favor of observed, high-impact behaviors
What important role do environmental psychologists and other social scientists have?
environmental psychologists and other social scientists have an important role to play in promoting behavioral changes, but climate change is not only a behavioral problem; solutions to the problem require an interdisciplinary approach
What do behavioral scientists examine with regards to climate change?
behavioral scientists examine and predict how individuals and groups are now responding, and will later respond, to climate change impacts
although all research in this area is valuable, less emphasis probably should be placed on self-reported proenvironmental behavior and on lowghgimpact behaviors in favor of observed, high-impact behaviors. despite these challenges, however, this area of research is replete with promise. by identifying and addressing these issues, future research will contribute more to understanding the mechanisms that drive anthropogenic climate change and our ability to address it. environmental psychologists and other social scientists have an important role to play in promoting behavioral changes, but climate change is not only a behavioral problem; solutions to the problem require an interdisciplinary approach. climate change is not only a matter of mitigation: individuals will have to adapt to the changes. behavioral scientists examine and predict how individuals and groups are now responding, and will later respond, to climate change impacts. these adaptive responses are subject to a number of social and psychological influences, and future research needs to examine these in the communities that are forced to adapt to climate change. bolstering communities and giving them tools to effectively respond to climate change will ease the process of adaptation. everyone will have to adapt, even those who think they are beyond the reach of climate change. people who are severely affected will move toward those in the less-affected parts of the world. both globally and locally, climate change will alter the lives of people everywhere, and understanding how these billions of affected individuals help to mitigate it, or not, and adapt to it effectively, or not, is an essential part of the general task of confronting the challenges it poses.
What is the effect of rising temperatures?
with rising temperatures, areas covered by permafrost and glaciers are decreasing in extent in much of the region
How the total precipitation occurs?
moreover, in many areas a greater proportion of total precipitation appears to be falling as rain than heretofore
What is the effect of total precipitation appears to be falling?
as a result, snowmelt begins earlier and winter is shorter: this affects river regimes, natural hazards, water supplies, and people's livelihoods and infrastructure, particularly in basins such as the tarim that are dependent upon glacial melt: the highly glaciated tarim basin supplies about 138x108m3 of glacial-melt freshwater to the downstream areas each summer (yao et al. 2004
with rising temperatures, areas covered by permafrost and glaciers are decreasing in extent in much of the region. moreover, in many areas a greater proportion of total precipitation appears to be falling as rain than heretofore. as a result, snowmelt begins earlier and winter is shorter: this affects river regimes, natural hazards, water supplies, and people's livelihoods and infrastructure, particularly in basins such as the tarim that are dependent upon glacial melt: the highly glaciated tarim basin supplies about 138x108m3 of glacial-melt freshwater to the downstream areas each summer (yao et al. 2004). the extent and health of high altitude wetlands, green water fl ows from terrestrial ecosystems, reservoirs, and water fl ow and sediment transport along rivers and in lakes can also be affected.
what are the example of adaptation to current and future climate risks?
incorporating integral monitoring, risk evaluation and watershed management into investments in hydropower is a very strong example of adaptation to current and future climate risks
what does The World Bank's proposed Power Sector Development Strategy (World Bank, 2001) analyze?
the world bank's proposed power sector development strategy (world bank, 2001) analyzes the key implementation constraints facing nepal's hydropower development, and proposes options for reform
does natural hazard risks  appear on the radar screen?
natural hazard risks do not appear on the radar screen of decision makers (except once a disaster occurs), and get less consideration than other factors that do appear in lists such as the one in this strategy
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 60 60 proposed hydropower sites should be monitored. while the strategy does not mention climate change as such, incorporating integral monitoring, risk evaluation and watershed management into investments in hydropower is a very strong example of adaptation to current and future climate risks. interestingly, one of the projects selected in the screening process is a storage project, where water is stored during the monsoon season and released in the dry winter, thus augmenting the low flows through the system. this is another example of adaptation, in this case to current and possibly future precipitation variability. the policy framework for environmental impact assessment for projects under the power development fund (nepal, 1999) contains no specific attention to natural hazard risk management, and it lacks a discussion of potential climate risks to hydropower projects. d.2.7 power development strategy (world bank) the world bank's proposed power sector development strategy (world bank, 2001) analyzes the key implementation constraints facing nepal's hydropower development, and proposes options for reform. in addition to institutional restructuring, the strategy proposes an active role for the government in promoting power trade with india and improving rural access to electricity. for the latter, nepal should supplement existing institutional methods of delivering electricity to rural areas with innovative approaches, such as community based systems, presumably including micro-hydropower. one the other hand, the strategy points to the strong need for private investments in large-scale hydropower, but warns that " factors such as financing terms (and their implications for tariffs), the creditworthiness of buyers, cost of alternatives and environmental impacts must play an important role in deciding the location of sites and the number and magnitude of contracts to be awarded ." curiously, natural hazard risks to the plant and its environment are not considered in this list of factors. it could be that the strategy neglects these risks given that, ideally, the first screening of possible sites, as well as follow-up engineering studies, should include these considerations. in practice however, natural hazard risks do not appear on the radar screen of decision makers (except once a disaster occurs), and get less consideration than other factors that do appear in lists such as the one in this strategy. interestingly, the list does include environmental impacts. if these impacts were to be defined broadly, and would include not only the risk of the hydropower plant to its environment but also vice-versa, natural hazards would automatically be considered in the context of the environmental impacts analysis (eia). however, standard eia guidelines seldom include such considerations. in the whole strategy, the word climate only appears as, " climate for mobilizing private capital ". 31 climate change is not mentioned. d.2.8 the nepal irrigation sector project32 (world bank, 1997) the project appraisal document for the nepal irrigation sector project states: "population pressure and the ad-hoc development of water resources have resulted in some adverse impacts on the country's ecological systems, for example... increased frequency of freak floods and droughts in many parts of the terai." while climate variability and change are not mentioned explicitly in the appraisal document, addressing issues like these clearly contributes to a reduction in vulnerability. another example of the impact of seasonal weather extremes is the sunsari morang irrigation system, which is targeted in one of the sub-projects. according to the appraisal document, this huge irrigation system has been plagued by sedimentation during the flood season since its inception. given nepal's torrential and sediment-laden rivers, similar problems with sedimentation are one of the technical challenges for almost all irrigation systems. 31 there is a brief discussion about minimum flow requirements (for environmental reasons) in drought years. drought as a risk factor to hydropower generation also features in several examples of hydropower development in other countries (including in sri lanka and new zealand), but is not explicitly worked out in the strategy itself. neither floods nor glofs are mentioned anywhere. 32 project appraisal document (1997).
What can we do to live a low-carbon lifestyle?
here is a need to avoid a 'deficit model' in relation to carbon literacy, and to explore situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions, within the broader context of structural opportunities for and barriers to low--carbon lifestyles
Why it is difficult to evaluate reliability of different sources of information on carbon capable lifestyle?
given the complexity and uncertainty (both informational and moral) associated with climate change (see hulme, 2009), carbon capability implies an ability to evaluate the reliability (bias, agenda, uncertainty, etc
similarly, we argue that there is a need to avoid a 'deficit model' in relation to carbon literacy, and to explore situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions, within the broader context of structural opportunities for and barriers to low--carbon lifestyles. further, given the complexity and uncertainty (both informational and moral) associated with climate change (see hulme, 2009), carbon capability implies an ability to evaluate the reliability (bias, agenda, uncertainty, etc.) of different information sources about how to achieve a carbon capable lifestyle. for example, media representation of climate change as controversial and uncertain may be more reflective of journalistic norms (of balance, dramatization, politicization, etc.) than of schism within mainstream scientific opinion (boykoff and boykoff, 2004, hargreaves et al 2003). currently, however, much of the public is poorly equipped to deal with scientific uncertainty and tend to be
what indicates a lamination index of 4?
a lamination index of 4 indicates continuous finely laminated sediments
what indicates a lamination index of 1?
a lamination index of 1 indicates homogeneous or bioturbated sediments14
what indicate a double-headed arrows?
double-headed arrows indicate stratigraphic tie points
comparison of tropical and greenland palaeoclimate variability. a l*from the cariaco basin (100-point running mean), l*from the arabian sea (green, 50-point running mean) and the ngrip d18o record2,4. cariaco basin and ngrip records are coloured corresponding to a lamination index determined from high-resolution digital images of the cariaco basin sediments. a lamination index of 4 indicates continuous finely laminated sediments, whereas a lamination index of 1 indicates homogeneous or bioturbated sediments14. numbers indicate interstadial numbers; double-headed arrows indicate stratigraphic tie points. the small plot on the right side shows the corresponding d18o ranges in ngrip at which the lamination indices occur. b lamination index from the cariaco basin. c morlet wavelet power spectrum of l*from the cariaco basin30. black contour lines indicate significance at a 95% level.
What does an organic compound with a molecular formula of CxHyOz permit?
equation 9.1 can be expressed in a generic way by an organic compound with molecular formula cxhyoz, which permits the calculation of the oxygen consumption and the production of carbon dioxide
What other elements are frequently part of the composition of the organic matter?
other elements (such as nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, etc.) are frequently part of the composition of the organic matter
What chemical decomposition do these elements undergo?
other elements (such as nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, etc.) are frequently part of the composition of the organic matter, which is still able to undergo biochemical oxidation
release of energy. equation 9.1 can be expressed in a generic way by an organic compound with molecular formula cxhyoz, which permits the calculation of the oxygen consumption and the production of carbon dioxide (van haandel and lettinga, 1994): cxhyoz 1 4 (4x y - 2z) o2 - x co2 y 2 h2o (9.2) as mentioned, equations 9.1 and 9.2 are generic, covering only the oxidation of the carbonaceous organic matter. other elements (such as nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, etc.) are frequently part of the composition of the organic matter, which is still able to undergo biochemical oxidation. 374 basic principles of wastewater treatment the main agents responsible for the aerobic stabilisation of the carbonaceous matter contained in the sewage are the decomposing organisms, which are mainly represented by aerobic and facultative heterotrophic bacteria.
What has affected socially near victims or socially distant victims?
they presented a news article about health impacts of climate change that affected socially near victims (fellow upstate new york residents), or socially distant victims (residents of the state of georgia, or of france
How was the pattern of effect whether the socially distant victim was from France or Georgia?
however, it must be noted that although the pattern of effects was consistent irrespective of whether the socially distant victim was from france or georgia, spatial distance is still confounded with this manipulation of social distance
What is studies of psychological distance?
tudies of psychological distance typically manipulate distances that can be objectively known, for example measuring people's preferences about objects or events at a given distance from their house, or a speci fi c number of months away, or to people at a given position in their social network (e.g., maglio, trope, liberman, 2012 ). in contrast, in the context of climate change almost all information about the distance of climate change in temporal, spatial and social domains is imbued with uncertainty, and often not objectively quanti fi able uncertainty. for example
they presented a news article about health impacts of climate change that affected socially near victims (fellow upstate new york residents), or socially distant victims (residents of the state of georgia, or of france). greater social distance was associated with greater polarization in support for climate change mitigation e with democrats supporting climate action more when exposed to socially distant victims, and republicans expressing more support for action when exposed to socially near victims. the results suggest a promising method of encouraging support for action among some political conservatives, by highlighting the potential impacts on those who are socially close to them. however, it must be noted that although the pattern of effects was consistent irrespective of whether the socially distant victim was from france or georgia, spatial distance is still confounded with this manipulation of social distance. more research is needed in order to identify why these effects emerged, and indeed whether such effects would occur across different forms of social distance (e.g., ethnicity, nationality, socioeconomic status). for example, to further investigate the effects of different forms of social distance, and to eliminate the spatial confound, it would be interesting to manipulate the social distance of a victim in terms of their socioeconomic status or ethnicity, while keeping the geographic location constant. in addition, investigating why these disparities emerge along ideological lines will help to inform the optimal framing of climate change outcomes e an issue to which we return later. 4.5. mutual in fl uences between dimensions of psychological distance analyzing the in fl uence of each dimension of psychological distance in isolation is illustrative, but of course simplistic given that the dimensions themselves overlap. for example, an event that is temporally distant is necessarily hypothetically distant because there is always a chance that the event will not happen. similarly, spatial and social distance can often be intertwined (e.g., socially close people tend to be people spatially close to us, and spatial closeness causes social closeness; priest sawyer, 1967 ). several fi ndings point to this mutual in fl uence between dimensions. for example, fi nding that people perceive the effects of climate change to be more severe in geographically distant areas suggests that spatial and social dimensions can act in concert to increase perceived psychological distance. moreover, because these severe climate change impacts are statistically less probable than minor impacts, they are likely to be perceived as more hypothetically distant thereby again increasing the overall psychological distance from the self. the fi ndings of research speci fi cally examining psychological distance in the domain of environmental problems gifford et al., 2009; spence et al., 2012; uzzell, 2000 support the idea that hypothetical distance may feed into perceptions of greater spatial, social and temporal distance for these outcomes. that is, severe impacts, which are less probable, are consistently perceived as occurring in distant locations in these studies. as uncertainty is inherent any discussion of climate change newell pitman, 2010 ), it may lead to inaction both because climate change may be perceived as too distant to be linked to local mitigation actions, and because it reinforces perceptions of greater temporal, social and spatial distance. 5. reconciling personal experience and psychological distance our review of the literature on the effects of personal experience of weather and climate change-related events suggests that one way to potentially increase support for climate action is to decrease perceived psychological distance. in contrast, the results of studies measuring and manipulating psychological distance present a more nuanced picture. psychological proximity does not always lead to increases in belief, concern and action. to shed light on this contrasting pattern of fi ndings, in this section we identify several important differences between studies of psychological distance and the effects of personally experiencing extreme weather and climate-change related events. then, we discuss when alignment is found and identify potential moderators that may explain discrepancies that arise. we conclude that the key drivers of these discrepancies appear to be existing beliefs, values and group norms. we identify other key considerations for framing the psychological distance of climate change, including the potential for reduced distance to provoke emotional reactions. 5.1. how personal experience and psychological distance diverge when comparing studies of personal experience and psychological distance, one key dimension that may in fl uence decisions is motivational relevance. when the distance of a decision or outcome is manipulated in the lab (e.g., fujita, eyal, chaiken, trope, liberman, 2008 ), the distance is likely to be chosen to be far enough to induce different ways of perceiving the event, yet near enough for the choice to remain relevant. yet with climate change, temporal distance can extend well beyond one's lifetime. thus, in contrast to deciding, for example, about an item you will purchase now versus in three months, climate change impacts may be perceived at such a distance that they may become irrelevant to ' present-biased ' decision making. if one believes that sea levels will rise, inundating coastal cities, but not for hundreds of years, concern about climate change and sea level rise may not be a relevant factor in one's (current) decision making. other dimensions of psychological distance can be positively associated with willingness to act on climate change, with greater perceptions of spatial distance linked to greater willingness to act spence et al., 2012 ). comparing how the emerging literature on the psychological distance of climate change diverges from classic work on psychological distance may also help to illuminate relationships between distance, concern and action. in typical studies of psychological distance it is often the distance of the decision rather than the outcome that is manipulated (e.g., liberman trope, 1998 ). in contrast, when making a choice today about how to travel to work it is the distance of the salient outcome (e.g., the immediate convenience of taking the car versus the long term health and environmental bene fi ts of riding a bicycle) and not the decision (e.g., a decision you make today vs. in three months), that varies. investigating how the psychological distance of outcomes and the psychological distance of decisions themselves, may differentially affect choices and motivation appears fruitful for delineating the role that psychological distance and personal experience play in in fl uencing concern and action on climate change (cf. hardisty weber, 2009 ). in research considering the psychological distance of climate change the omnipresence of uncertainty also makes the nature of distance on any other dimension distinct from that usually studied in other research. studies of psychological distance typically manipulate distances that can be objectively known, for example measuring people's preferences about objects or events at a given distance from their house, or a speci fi c number of months away, or to people at a given position in their social network (e.g., maglio, trope, liberman, 2012 ). in contrast, in the context of climate change almost all information about the distance of climate change in temporal, spatial and social domains is imbued with uncertainty, and often not objectively quanti fi able uncertainty. for example,
When was the study conducted?
conducted from november, 2002 to february, 2003
What method was used?
using the dillman (2000) tailored design method
How many completed surveys were returned?
a total of 673 completed surveys were returned
a national study of american global climate change risk perceptions, affective images, values, and policy preferences was conducted from november, 2002 to february, 2003. the study was implemented with a 16-page mail-out, mail-back survey of a representative sample of the american public, using the dillman (2000) tailored design method. a total of 673 completed surveys were returned for an overall casro response rate of 55.4% and a refusal rate of 11.2%. compared to population distributions from the 2000 u.s. census, the sample over-represented males (65%) and persons 55 and older (47%). the results were weighted by sex and age to bring them in line with actual population proportions. 3.2. measures
What happens if environmental condition shift more rapidly than individuals disperse?
the species may be relegated to persisting only in isolated habitat refugia that meet their niche requirements
the assumption that locations within the environmental niche space of a species will be occupied requires that individuals will be able to disperse to suitable locations (16, 28). if environmental conditions shift more rapidly than individuals can disperse, however, the species may be relegated to persisting only in isolated habitat refugia that meet their niche requirements (25). the prospect that many species may not be able to keep up with the speed of movement of suitable environments under future climate change has fostered discussions of ''assisted migration'' as a conservation strategy (29). the ability of individuals to disperse to suitable places is not solely a function of their inherent dispersal capacity. in many cases the landscape through which species must move to reach suitable places has been increasingly fragmented by human actions. this fragmentation breaks habitat connectivity, imposes barriers to dispersal, and creates a landscape mosaic of suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable habitat patches. the effects of landscape structure and connectivity on the future distributions
What is referred as Power quality in power transmission?
frequency and voltage stability, waveform abnormalities
What is referred as Service in power transmission?
response time and restoration time
reliability - longand short-term interruptions of power supply. <s121>* power quality - frequency and voltage stability, waveform abnormalities. <s121>* service - response time and restoration time. not only do we need a constant supply of electricity for basic functions like street and domestic lighting, that can operate under quite varied voltage conditions, but the advanced electronic equipment found in modern working environments often requires a high level of reliability from the incoming electricity supply. for example, today's complex manufacturing processes rely heavily on microcomputers, variable-speed drives and robotics devices to achieve high levels of product throughput and product quality. this leads to higher expectations of electricity end-consumers, who place increasing demands on electricity suppliers to meet the demand for quality of supply. evidence for this is given by the large market for power quality measurement and analysis systems. national regulations dictate the minimum quality of electricity and, if these are complied with, the needs of most consumers will be met. in the case of consumers with special requirements, or in areas where quality measurements give rise to concerns, there are methods of ameliorating shortcomings in the electricity supply. however, some of these methods can themselves have an effect on the supply network.
Why does the equilibrium temperature response pattern in the HCabs experiment does not match the regression forcing pattern?
with cooling happening almost everywhere and the greatest cooling occurring in high latitudes (figs. 10e and 10g) where the forcing is strongly positive
What causes  equilibrium partial temperature change to  strongly reduce poleward heat transport in the HCabs experiment ?
the equilibrium partial temperature change due to the horizontal heat transport (fig. 10f) shows strongly reduced poleward heat transport in the hcabs experiment that counteracts the forcing (fig. 10e
Why does the HCabs experiment has a higher climate sensitivity?
the hcabs experiment has a higher climate sensitivity parameter owing to the water vapor plus lapse rate feedback but also because of the surface albedo feedback, the horizontal heat transport, and the longwave cloudy sky feedback
equilibrium partial temperature changes for the hadsm3 experiments are shown in fig. 10. given that the forcing patterns are different for each experiment we would not expect the temperature changes to be the same. however, the equilibrium temperature response pattern in the hcabs experiment does not match the regression forcing pattern in anyway, with cooling happening almost everywhere and the greatest cooling occurring in high latitudes (figs. 10e and 10g) where the forcing is strongly positive. the equilibrium partial temperature change due to the horizontal heat transport (fig. 10f) shows strongly reduced poleward heat transport in the hcabs experiment that counteracts the forcing (fig. 10e). given that the zonal mean temperature is cooling throughout the integration, this implies the change in horizontal heat transport is manifested early. analysis found that the hadley circulation was slowed down causing the rapid decrease of stratospheric water vapor in the tropics. the global mean equilibrium partial temperature change determined from the zonal means divided by the global mean regression forcing gives a measure of the contribution to the global mean climate sensitivity parameter (fig. 11). the hcabs experiment has a higher climate sensitivity parameter owing to the water vapor plus lapse rate feedback but also because of the surface albedo feedback, the horizontal heat transport, and the longwave cloudy sky feedback. the lcscat experiment has a lower climate sensitivity parameter because of the shortwave cloud (winton) and water vapor plus lapse rate feedbacks.
How is the Baltic Sea climate analysed?
the baltic sea climate is analysed based upon long-term oceanographic measurements
What is the objective of the analysis of the Baltic Sea climate?
the objective of the work is to study the natural variability of present day climate with focus on the freshwater budget
How are the results of the analysis of the Baltic Sea climate designed?
the results are designed to be used for validation of climate models and for discrimination of the significance of modelled climate change scenarios
the baltic sea climate is analysed based upon long-term oceanographic measurements. the objective of the work is to study the natural variability of present day climate with focus on the freshwater budget. the results are designed to be used for validation of climate models and for discrimination of the significance of modelled climate change scenarios. almost 100 yr of observations are used in the study, including data for river runoff, water exchange through the danish straits (as calculated from river runoff and from sea level data from the kattegat), salinity data from the baltic sea and the kattegat, and oxygen content in the deep baltic sea. the analyses illustrate that freshwater supply to the baltic shows large variations on time scales up to several decades. the long-term variations in freshwater storage are closely correlated to accumulated changes in river runoff. this indicates strong positive feedback between the amount of outflowing surface water from the baltic sea and the salinity of the inflowing kattegat water. one implication of the study is that climate control simulations must cover several decades, probably up to 100 yr in order to capture the natural variability of present day climate. also, models designed to study climate change for the baltic sea probably need to start integrating from the present day. key words: baltic sea * climate * salinity * freshwater * river runoff * oxygen
Who  helped in putting the second edition of this book together?
janet rudge and sari kovats for chapter 8; aubrey meyer, fiona mullins and peter reid for their help with the text; and all those who otherwise helped with it in thought, word or deed
Where you can get more free ebooks?
more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Which is the illustration company for the book?
ukcip
david crichton, fergus nicol and sue roaf would like to thank the following people for their help in putting the second edition of this book together: janet rudge and sari kovats for chapter 8; aubrey meyer, fiona mullins and peter reid for their help with the text; and all those who otherwise helped with it in thought, word or deed. for the illustrations: ukcip, laurence williams, adrian arbib, aubrey meyer, claire palmer, mary hancock, charles knevitt, louis hellman and bill bordass, to name a few. at architectural press thanks go to hannah shakespeare and mike travers. it should be noted that the views expressed in this book are solely those of the authors. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Why OEZ model is not enough to apply a statistical criterion for the goodness of fit?
these results consist of 12 values only
What is the expansion of ELA
equilibrium line altitude
How much is the monthly runoff suggested by Kuhn and Batlogg?
less than 20 mm
since the oez model calculates longterm means of monthly runoff, these results consist of 12 values only, which is not enough to apply a statistical criterion for the goodness of fit. however, there is the possibility to check the plausibility of the results during optimization, by evaluating three aspects of the internal mass balance distribution: accumulation ablation profiles of glaciated and ice-free areas, equilibrium line altitude (ela), and accumulation area ratio (aar). the maximum discrepancy between measured and modelled monthly runoff values of less than 20 mm suggested by kuhn and batlogg (1998) was reached in all months and test sites, exept for may at oigaing and june at abramov (table 4). table 4 discrepancies between measured monthly mean and monthly mean calculated using the oez model (mm).
When has global aridity started to increase substantially ?
global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over africa, southern europe, east and south asia, and eastern australia - the percentage of global land (between 60 degs and 75 degn) defined as dry areas has increased from 17% in the 1950s to about 27% in the 2000s (dai, 2011
Why has global aridity started to increase substantially ?
global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over africa, southern europe, east and south asia, and eastern australia - the percentage of global land (between 60 degs and 75 degn) defined as dry areas has increased from 17% in the 1950s to about 27% in the 2000s (dai, 2011
Is there any uncertainty regarding the projected changes in extremes ?
there is considerable uncertainty regarding projected changes in extremes to the end of the current century, and confidence in projecting changes in the direction and magnitude of climate extremes is generally low, although as the ipcc (2012) points out, low confidence in projections of changes in extremes does not mean that such changes are necessarily unlikely
changes in extremes have been observed since 1950, and there is evidence that some of these changes are a result of anthropogenic influences, although attribution of single extreme events to these influences remains challenging (ipcc, 2012). global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over africa, southern europe, east and south asia, and eastern australia - the percentage of global land (between 60 degs and 75 degn) defined as dry areas has increased from 17% in the 1950s to about 27% in the 2000s (dai, 2011). there is considerable uncertainty regarding projected changes in extremes to the end of the current century, and confidence in projecting changes in the direction and magnitude of climate extremes is generally low, although as the ipcc (2012) points out, low confidence in projections of changes in extremes does not mean that such changes are necessarily unlikely. similarly, given current limits of understanding of the underlying processes regarding climate in many regions, it may be that low-probability, high-impact changes in extremes will occur.
What sets the value of market goods?
the value of market goods depends on changes in supply and demand, which are influenced by many different factors operating at local, regional, national and international levels
What has been suggested about marketing adaptation?
it has also been suggested that the likelihood of undertaking adaptation will depend on whether the impacts are on market or nonmarket goods and services
Why households and firms will be interested in adaptation?
it is in the interest of households and firms to adapt, as they will see the benefits of the adaptation directly
the value of market goods depends on changes in supply and demand, which are influenced by many different factors operating at local, regional, national and international levels. it has also been suggested that the likelihood of undertaking adaptation will depend on whether the impacts are on market or nonmarket goods and services. since people (as individuals or through companies, households or institutions) have property rights in market goods, climate change would affect the value of their assets. this provides motivation to undertake adaptations that would help to reduce losses and increase the opportunity to capitalize on potential opportunities.(46)it is in the interest of households and firms to adapt, as they will see the benefits of the adaptation directly.(55)in contrast, there is a lack of market incentives and mechanisms to adapt to the impacts of climate change on nonmarket goods, as well as more uncertainty concerning who should be responsible for undertaking the adaptation. these factors must be considered when accounting for the role of adaptation in economic impact studies. the possible costs of climate change have been estimated in many different ways, and studies vary greatly in their complexity and the amount of detail considered. one approach is to examine historical events or trends that are thought to be indicative of future conditions. for example, some researchers have focused on the economic costs of natural disasters, using insurance claims and disaster databases to determine the costs of these events.(21, 56)
What is information provision inadequate for?
to encourage lifestyle change or promote public acceptance of policy
What does the so--called 'information deficit' model assume?
that the public are 'empty vessels' waiting to be filled with information which will propel them into rational action
What is the so--called 'information deficit' model widely criticized as?
inappropriate and ineffective
as illustrated in section 2.2, information provision is inadequate to encourage lifestyle change or promote public acceptance of policy. the so--called 'information deficit' model, which assumes that the public are 'empty vessels' waiting to be filled with information which will propel them into rational action, has implicitly underpinned much public policy but is widely criticized as inappropriate and ineffective (e.g., irwin and wynne, 1996). this is not to say that education is not part of an effective public engagement and social change agenda (indeed, carbon capability implies that agents have specific knowledge pertaining to, for example, the relative associated emissions of particular behaviors); but rather that it should be based on an understanding of individuals' existing knowledge, their concerns and abilities, and broader institutional relationships, and should be accompanied by efforts to provide greater opportunities for public participation in democratic policy--making to transform the structural constraints on practice choice sets.
What are the conditions disturbed here?
kremser et al. stratospheric aerosol 319 and data intercomparison studies for background and volcanically disturbed conditions
Explain conditions disturbed with example?
for example, results from a detailed socol-aer model study of the mount pinatubo eruption with different microphysical parameterizations in comparison to satellite and in situ observations are shown in figure 17 sheng 2014
Which scheme is used in this model?
while the use of a sophisticated particle coagulation scheme seems to be of minor importance in the socol-aer model, an accurate sedimentation scheme is essential to prevent particles from sedimenting out of the atmosphere too quickly. numerical diffusive methods for the sedimentation parameterization can lead to undesirable transport of aerosol to the middle and upper stratosphere benduhn and lawrence 2013
kremser et al. stratospheric aerosol 319 and data intercomparison studies for background and volcanically disturbed conditions. for example, results from a detailed socol-aer model study of the mount pinatubo eruption with different microphysical parameterizations in comparison to satellite and in situ observations are shown in figure 17 sheng 2014]. while the use of a sophisticated particle coagulation scheme seems to be of minor importance in the socol-aer model, an accurate sedimentation scheme is essential to prevent particles from sedimenting out of the atmosphere too quickly. numerical diffusive methods for the sedimentation parameterization can lead to undesirable transport of aerosol to the middle and upper stratosphere benduhn and lawrence 2013].
How are patent applications identified?
patent applications related to climate change are identified using the international patent classification (ipc) codes
How many possible errors may arise when building the data sets?
when building the data sets, two possible types of error may arise
What are the two types of error that may arise?
irrelevant patents may be included or relevant ones left out
patent applications related to climate change are identified using the international patent classification (ipc) codes, developed at the world intellectual property organization (wipo).vi we identify the ipc classes corresponding to the climate mitigation technologies in two alternative ways. first, we search the descriptions of the classes online to find those that are appropriate.vii second, using the online international patent database maintained by the european patent office,viii we search patent titles and s for relevant keywords. the ipc classes corresponding to the patents that come up are included, provided their description confirms their relevancy. when building the data sets, two possible types of error may arise: irrelevant patents may be included or relevant ones left out. the first error happens if an ipc class includes patents that bear no relation to climate mitigation. to avoid this problem, we carefully examine a sample of patent titles for every ipc class considered for inclusion, and exclude those classes that consist of patents unrelated to climate change mitigation. key technologies involved with carbon reduction potential, therefore, are outside the scope of this study, which means that electric vehicles, energy efficient technologies in industry, or clean coal technologies are not part of our study. the second error--relevant inventions are left out--is less problematic. we can reasonably assume that all innovations in a given field behave in a similar way and hence our data sets can be
Summarize the perfect storm.
the perfect storm' seems to have become prominent in popular culture through sebastian junger's book of that name and the associated hollywood film.6 junger's tale is based on the true story of the andrea gail a fishing vessel caught at sea during a convergence of three particularly bad storms
What involves the 7 The sense of the analogy?
it involves the convergence of a number of factors that threaten our ability to behave ethically
let us say that a perfect storm is an event constituted by an unusual convergence of independently harmful factors where this convergence is likely to result in substantial, and possibly catastrophic, negative outcomes. the term `the perfect storm' seems to have become prominent in popular culture through sebastian junger's book of that name and the associated hollywood film.6 junger's tale is based on the true story of the andrea gail a fishing vessel caught at sea during a convergence of three particularly bad storms.7 the sense of the analogy is then that climate change appears to be a perfect moral storm because it involves the convergence of a number of factors that threaten our ability to behave ethically. as climate change is a complex phenomenon, i cannot hope to identify all of the ways in which its features cause problems for ethical behaviour. instead, stephen m. gardiner
What may some environmental and social considerations do?
may limit the ability of the aquaculture industry to respond rapidly to climate change
What does it mean for aquaculture to be strictly regulated?
that it is generally neither simple nor efficient for existing operations to move to new locations or change the type of fish being farmed
What is a result of aquaculture to be strictly regulated?
there is a need to emphasize planned, anticipatory adaptation responses to climate change
there are, however, environmental and social considerations that may limit the ability of the aquaculture industry to respond rapidly to climate change (e.g., seereferences 18, 99). aquaculture is strictly regulated, meaning that it is generally neither simple nor efficient for existing operations to move to new locations or change the type of fish being farmed. as a result there is a need to emphasize planned, anticipatory adaptation responses to climate change. the fact that the aquaculture industry on the pacific coast has expressed interest in having new locations selected and pre-approved for various climate change scenarios(98)is an example that this need has been recognized.
Who has been very helpful in organizing and maintaining the PRUDENCE data distribution centre?
ole christensen at dmi has been very helpful in organizing and maintaining the prudence data distribution centre
Who are acknowledged helpful comments?
anders moberg, dave rowell, burkhardt rockel, markku rummukainen and bart van den hurk are acknowledged helpful comments
To whom the authors are indebted for their most valuable comments on the manuscript?
the authors are indebted to two anonymous reviewers for their most valuable comments on the manuscript
supplemental funding from the swiss national science foundation (nccr climate) and from the uk government's department for environment, food and rural affairs (defra) climate prediction programme (pecd 7/12/37) is also acknowledged. we are grateful to all our colleagues in the prudence project that has provided the data used in this work. in particular ole christensen at dmi has been very helpful in organizing and maintaining the prudence data distribution centre (<prudence.dmi.dk>). anders moberg, dave rowell, burkhardt rockel, markku rummukainen and bart van den hurk are acknowledged helpful comments. the authors are indebted to two anonymous reviewers for their most valuable comments on the manuscript.
Whose were dominated the adaptations related activities in Europe?
in europe, almost half of publications reporting adaptations were related to activities in northern europe, the vast majority referencing the united kingdom
What is the evidence of dominance by particular nations for South and Central America?
there was no evidence of dominance by particular nations for south and central america
From where does the dominance of reporting suggests the potential for a bias towards Anglophone countries?
the dominance of reporting from the united kingdom, east africa, india, and bangladesh suggests the potential for a bias towards anglophone countries
please cite this article in press as: berrang-ford, l., et al., are we adapting to climate change? global environ. change (2010), doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.012 reports, these were dominated by adaptations in east african countries and south africa. in europe, almost half of publications reporting adaptations were related to activities in northern europe, the vast majority referencing the united kingdom. similarly, asian adaptation reports were dominated by southern asia, specifically india and bangladesh. there was no evidence of dominance by particular nations for south and central america. the dominance of reporting from the united kingdom, east africa, india, and bangladesh suggests the potential for a bias towards anglophone countries, presumably reflecting selection of englishonly publications.
How were ocean currents used?
ocean currents provide a physical mechanism for the transport of energy together with dynamical information on localized linear structures over large distances
Why are no clear traces of strong western boundary currents (WBCs), such as the Gulf Stream or Kuroshio, visible in the backbone structure?
this might be due to the fact, that wbcs are much narrower than the eastern boundary currents discussed above so that the effect of wbcs is not resolved by the grid underlying the hadcm3 climate network
How was ruled out the possibility that the backbone structures observed over the ocean are simply due to local anomalies in the SST-SAT gradient caused by surface currents?
we have calculated the gradient field from the model run that we used to construct the hadcm3 climate network, and found that the sst-sat gradient and bc are not correlated (fig. 3). furthermore, the backbone is neither seen in fields of degree nor closeness centrality [8,14], while bc statistically shows some correlation with these centrality measures (fig. 4). nevertheless there is a notable tendency of high bc vertices to have a small 48007-p4 the backbone of the climate network
therefore, ocean currents provide a physical mechanism for the transport of energy together with dynamical information on localized linear structures over large distances. however, no clear traces of the strong western boundary currents (wbcs) such as the gulf stream or the kuroshio are visible in the backbone structure (fig. 1(b)). this might be due to the fact, that wbcs are much narrower than the eastern boundary currents discussed above so that the effect of wbcs is not resolved by the grid underlying the hadcm3 climate network (see table 1). note that using higher-resolution reanalysis data (fig. 1(a)) and sat data taken from the aogcm echam5 we find that our method does indeed detect wbcs. here it should be pointed out again that we are analyzing the sat field, hence purely atmospheric effects, e.g. planetary waves, also contribute to the bc field and might explain some of its wave-like features, particularly over land. backbone structures are not seen in fields of the complementary random walk betweenness which measures diffusive flow in a network. this further supports our argument that shortest path betweenness (bc) measures convective energy flow in a spatially extended network and is consistent with extremalization principles of physics, e.g. the hamiltonian principle, interpreted within a graph theoretical framework. to exclude the possibility that the observed backbone structures over the ocean might be simply due to local anomalies in the sst-sat gradient caused by surface currents, we have calculated the gradient field from the model run that we used to construct the hadcm3 climate network, and found that the sst-sat gradient and bc are not correlated (fig. 3). furthermore, the backbone is neither seen in fields of degree nor closeness centrality [8,14], while bc statistically shows some correlation with these centrality measures (fig. 4). nevertheless there is a notable tendency of high bc vertices to have a small 48007-p4 the backbone of the climate network
What have red hake, Atlantic cod, yellowtail flounder, alewife, and American shad all have historically experienced?
 commercially important species such as red hake, atlantic cod, yellowtail flounder, alewife, and american shad have historically experienced intense fishing pressure
For many commercially important species, has the reduced fishing mortality resulted in enough population recovery to support viable fisheries?
for many of these species, management has reduced fishing mortality, yet the southern stocks have not been able to recover to historic population sizes or to support viable fisheries
What should be incorporated into stock assessments and management scenarios?
the effects of climate and/or changes in distribution should be incorporated into stock assessments and management scenarios
we examined the role of population abundance, but were unable to directly examine the role of fishing in distributional shifts. fishing pressure may intensify the effects of climate change (hsieh et al. 2008, planque et al. in press), especially at the southern extent of the species' range in this region. commercially important species such as red hake, atlantic cod, yellowtail flounder, alewife, and american shad have historically experienced intense fishing pressure, and all of these stocks are at record low levels, particularly at the southern limit of their range. for many of these species, management has reduced fishing mortality, yet the southern stocks have not been able to recover to historic population sizes or to support viable fisheries. we hypothesize that these species have failed to fully recover from intense fishing at the southern extent of their range, in part because of warming along the continental shelf. the observations that stock size has decreased and the center of biomass has shifted poleward in some southern stocks of these species, while stock size has increased in northern stocks of these species suggests that there may be movement of fish from the southern stock into the northern stock. this may be the case with the red hake, silver hake, yellowtail flounder, and winter flounder and has important management implications. the effects of climate and/or changes in distribution should be incorporated into stock assessments and management scenarios. incorporating a broader set of considerations into stock assessments by using an index of warming such as the amo might improve stock-recruitment relationships, explain the lack of recovery to date for some stocks, and provide more refined management advice.
Which areas at high altitudes will experience permafrost thaw due to rising temperatures?
at high latitudes, rising temperatures will thaw large areas covered by permafrost in siberia, canada, and alaska
How have DOC concentrations change in the Experimental Lakes Area in Canada?
conversely, doc concentrations in the experimental lakes area in canada decreased by 15-25% during two decades of climatic warming, as a result of reduced streamflow caused by drought (schindler et al 1997
How do rising C02 levels impact terrestrial vegetation?
rising atmospheric co2 concentrations lead to increased stomatal closure of terrestrial vegetation. this reduces plant transpiration, and has been estimated to increase global runoff by 6% (betts et al 2007
global warming and rising atmospheric co2 levels may alter the input of doc into freshwater ecosystems, although the magnitude and direction of these changes will vary regionally. at high latitudes, rising temperatures will thaw large areas covered by permafrost in siberia, canada, and alaska, releasing massive amounts of trapped organic carbon that may flow into ponds and lakes (zimov et al 2006). climate scenarios also predict more extreme rainfall events and more frequent storms in many parts of the world (solomon et al 2007), which may result in increased runoff of doc from terrestrial ecosystems into lakes (hinton et al 1997). conversely, doc concentrations in the experimental lakes area in canada decreased by 15-25% during two decades of climatic warming, as a result of reduced streamflow caused by drought (schindler et al 1997). rising atmospheric co2 concentrations lead to increased stomatal closure of terrestrial vegetation. this reduces plant transpiration, and has been estimated to increase global runoff by 6% (betts et al 2007). in peatlands, elevated co2 induces shifts in plant species composition, which could amplify doc export from peatland catchments (fenner et al 2007). other processes also affect the doc input into freshwater ecosystems, however. for
What is the only country to include livestock within its cap and trade scheme?
new zealand remains the only country to include livestock within its cap and trade scheme, but even here farmers are required only to report emissions from their farms, not to take any mitigating action
In other countries, government action has mostly taken the form of financial support for efficiency improvements, such as the use of what?
in other countries, government action has mostly taken the form of financial support for efficiency improvements, such as the use of anaerobic digesters and biogas production
Mitigation plans have been largely driven by what?
mitigation plans have been largely industry-driven, with a number of national industries committing to reduction targets
where they exist, national strategies and policies to tackle livestock emissions are typically less potent than those for other sectors. new zealand remains the only country to include livestock within its cap and trade scheme, but even here farmers are required only to report emissions from their farms, not to take any mitigating action.19 in other countries, government action has mostly taken the form of financial support for efficiency improvements, such as the use of anaerobic digesters and biogas production.20 mitigation plans have been largely industry-driven, with a number of national industries committing to reduction targets.21 for example, in the united states, voluntary initiatives developed by industry and with support from government include a non-binding emissions reduction target of 25 per cent by 2020 from 2009 levels in dairy
Why it is economically feasible?
it is economically feasible because the evidence tells us that within the feasible set of abatement opportunities there are many to be exploited at a very low (perhaps in some cases even a negative) cos
What is the percentage of global emission from non-fossil fuel?
roughly 40% of global emissions derive from non-fossil fuel sources and here reductions could be won at a low cost
Describe about International Energy Agency's studies?
as the international energy agency's studies (e.g. iea, 2006) have highlighted, there is considerable technical potential for energy efficiency to deliver emission reductions over the coming years. since such efficiency improvements lead to reduced energy inputs for a given level of output, many of them will provide an economic benefit that is unrelated to the benefit of mitigating climate change: that is, they may come at a negative cost
it is economically feasible because the evidence tells us that within the feasible set of abatement opportunities there are many to be exploited at a very low (perhaps in some cases even a negative) cost. for the other opportunities (principally new, low-emission technologies), the increase in cost seems manageable. roughly 40% of global emissions derive from non-fossil fuel sources and here reductions could be won at a low cost. one example is avoiding deforestation, which could cost less than $5 per tonne of carbon dioxide (tco2) and perhaps as little as $1/tco2, roughly equivalent to just 40 cents per barrel of oil (grieg-gran, 2006).10 another source of emission reductions is improvements in energy efficiency. as the international energy agency's studies (e.g. iea, 2006) have highlighted, there is considerable technical potential for energy efficiency to deliver emission reductions over the coming years. since such efficiency improvements lead to reduced energy inputs for a given level of output, many of them will provide an economic benefit that is unrelated to the benefit of mitigating climate change: that is, they may come at a negative cost.
Our SEM model was able to explain what?
our sem model was able to explain 40% of the variance in litter decomposition rates at the global scale, and between 19 and 65% of this variance at the biome scale
Soil fauna were also significantly related with what?
soil fauna were also significantly related with litter decomposition rates in the humid grasslands, agro-ecosystems and tropical wet forests models, where it represented the largest contribution to the variance explained by the sem conducted
our sem model was able to explain 40% of the variance in litter decomposition rates at the global scale, and between 19 and 65% of this variance at the biome scale (table 1). climatic features (elevation and the comp1) and litter quality (c n ratio and sla) accounted for most of the variance in litter decomposition rates, both in the global and the biome-scale models. soil fauna exerted a significant direct effect r 0.14) on litter decomposition rates in the globalscale model. soil fauna were also significantly related with litter decomposition rates in the humid grasslands, agro-ecosystems and tropical wet forests models, where it represented the largest contribution to the variance explained by the sem conducted (table 1).
How will eutrophication of lakes affect cyanobacteria?
as lakes become more eutrophic, cyanobacteria will be more sensitive to the interaction of nutrients and temperature
What is the difference between oligotrophic and mesotrophic lakes on the factors affecting cyanobacterial biovolume?
nutrients played a larger role in oligotrophic lakes, while temperature was more important in mesotrophic lakes
Do the results contradict previous studies?
we compared our results with an extensive literature review and found that they were generally supported by previous studies
cyanobacteria are predicted to increase due to climate and land use change. however, the relative importance and interaction of warming temperatures and increased nutrient availability in determining cyanobacterial blooms are unknown. we investigated the contribution of these two factors in promoting phytoplankton and cyanobacterial biovolume in freshwater lakes. specifically, we asked: (1) which of these two drivers, temperature or nutrients, is a better predictor of cyanobacterial biovolume? (2) do nutrients and temperature significantly interact to affect phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, and if so, is the interaction synergistic? and (3) does the interaction between these factors explain more of the variance in cyanobacterial biovolume than each factor alone? we analyzed data from 1000 u.s. lakes and demonstrate that in most cases, the interaction of temperature and nutrients was not synergistic; rather, nutrients predominantly controlled cyanobacterial biovolume. interestingly, the relative importance of these two factors and their interaction was dependent on lake trophic state and cyanobacterial taxon. nutrients played a larger role in oligotrophic lakes, while temperature was more important in mesotrophic lakes: only eutrophic and hyper-eutrophic lakes exhibited a significant interaction between nutrients and temperature. likewise, some taxa, such as anabaena were more sensitive to nutrients, while others, such as microcystis were more sensitive to temperature. we compared our results with an extensive literature review and found that they were generally supported by previous studies. as lakes become more eutrophic, cyanobacteria will be more sensitive to the interaction of nutrients and temperature, but ultimately nutrients are the more important predictor of cyanobacterial biovolume.
What factor is associated with relatively warm winters?
high positive nao index is generally associated with relatively warm winters with much precipitation in northern atlantic coastal europe
What monthly data was obtained from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute?
monthly means of precipitation, snow, and temperature from weather stations located in different areas of norway were obtained from the norwegian meteorological institute
The temperature data from which period were used?
we used monthly snow cover data from october to may, precipitation data from may to august, and temperature data from october to august
).6a high positive nao index is generally associated with relatively warm winters with much precipitation in northern atlantic coastal europe, whereas low values of the index tend to result in cold winters with low levels of precipitation (hurrell and vanloon 1997). monthly means of precipitation, snow, and temperature from weather stations located in different areas of norway were obtained from the norwegian meteorological institute. in cases in which we did not have a weather station situated within the municipality borders, we used the nearest weather station situated in another municipality. we used monthly snow cover data from october to may, precipitation data from may to august, and temperature data from october to august. in addition, we computed all possible sets of twoand three-month averaged values. results
What do the best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show?
the best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings
What does recent research indicate?
in particular, recent research indicates that winters in eurasia may have some dependence on the sun, with more cold winters occurring when the solar activity is low
What does the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provide?
in contrast, the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provides an increasingly inadequate explanation of observations
the literature relevant to how solar variability influences climate is vast--but much has been based on inadequate statistics and non-robust procedures. the common pitfalls are outlined in this review. the best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings). however, the situation is more interesting when one looks at regional and season variations around the global means. in particular, recent research indicates that winters in eurasia may have some dependence on the sun, with more cold winters occurring when the solar activity is low. advances in modelling ''top-down'' mechanisms, whereby stratospheric changes influence the underlying troposphere, offer promising explanations of the observed phenomena. in contrast, the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provides an increasingly inadequate explanation of observations. keywords solar variability  global climate change  regional climate change  blocking events  maunder minimum  total solar irradiance  uv spectral irradiance  galactic cosmic rays  open solar flux  stratosphere-troposphere coupling 1 solar electromagnetic radiation powers earth's climate system and, consequently, it is often nai"vely thought that changes in this solar output must be responsible for changes in earth's climate. however, the huge thermal time constant of the outer part of the sun limits the variability in its surface temperature, and hence its total power output, which is
what did this conclusion confirm?
this conclusion is confirmed by the results of a separate question that asked respondents to indicate which scale of climate change impacts was of greatest concern to them
Which questions asked the impacts of global warming?
which of the following are you most concerned about? the impacts of global warming on (1) you and your family; (2) your local community; (3) the u.s. as a whole; (4) people all over the world; (5) nonhuman nature; or (6) not at all concerned
what are the two issues raised?
higher ranking national issues (e.g., the economy, education, health care) and environmental issues (clean air, clean water, urban sprawl) are all issues that are more easily understood as having direct local relevance. global climate change
this conclusion is confirmed by the results of a separate question that asked respondents to indicate which scale of climate change impacts was of greatest concern to them (see table i). the question asked: "which of the following are you most concerned about? the impacts of global warming on (1) you and your family; (2) your local community; (3) the u.s. as a whole; (4) people all over the world; (5) nonhuman nature; or (6) not at all concerned." a clear majority of respondents (68%) were most concerned about the impacts on people around the world and nonhuman nature. only 13% were most concerned about the impacts on themselves, their family, or their local community. this may help explain why global climate change remains a relatively low priority in issue-ranking surveys (e.g., dunlap saad, 2001). higher ranking national issues (e.g., the economy, education, health care) and environmental issues (clean air, clean water, urban sprawl) are all issues that are more easily understood as having direct local relevance. global climate change,
Which is world's largest renewable source of electricity?
hydro power is currently the world's largest renewable source of electricity, accounting for 6% of worldwide energy supply or about 15% of the world's electricity
What is the main drawback of Hydro power?
hydro power is particularly susceptible to climate change, both to unprecedented spells of drought and to flooding
Why setting up Hydro power is facing some problems today?
traditionally thought of as a cheap and clean source of electricity, most large hydroelectric schemes being planned today are coming up against a great deal of opposition from environmental groups and native people
hydro power is currently the world's largest renewable source of electricity, accounting for 6% of worldwide energy supply or about 15% of the world's electricity. in canada, hydroelectric power is abundant and supplies 60% of the electricity needs. traditionally thought of as a cheap and clean source of electricity, most large hydroelectric schemes being planned today are coming up against a great deal of opposition from environmental groups and native people. over the long term, silting of large dams has also been a significant problem for larger schemes. hydro power is particularly susceptible to climate change, both to unprecedented spells of drought and to flooding. in march 2001 brazil faced wide-scale blackouts after two years of drought because the reservoirs that fed the hydro plants were less than one-third full. brazil generates about 70 000 mw of electricity annually, and consumes all but an estimated 5% of total output. ninety per cent of brazil's electricity comes from hydro power and although there was some ability to import extra energy from argentina the country had no option but to ration energy and accept a rolling programme of blackouts. 35 similar situations have arisen in the hydro-dependent economies of tasmania and new zealand.
Do climatic events affect the outcome?
n many contexts, it is plausible that climatic events at moments in the past or at nearby locations affect an outcome at a specific time and place, much like the surface of a pond observed at any moment and location might depend on whether a raindrop disturbed that location or a nearby point on the pond surface moments before
Describe the time-series identification of climate effects?
when using time-series identification of climate effects, it is crucial to account for these ripple effects so that a local transient response is not mischaracterized as a persistent effect
Summarize the effects of climate events?
of particular concern is whether climatic events have a net effect on outcomes, or whether they simply displace outcomes across time and/or space
in many contexts, it is plausible that climatic events at moments in the past or at nearby locations affect an outcome at a specific time and place, much like the surface of a pond observed at any moment and location might depend on whether a raindrop disturbed that location or a nearby point on the pond surface moments before. when using time-series identification of climate effects, it is crucial to account for these ripple effects so that a local transient response is not mischaracterized as a persistent effect. of particular concern is whether climatic events have a net effect on outcomes, or whether they simply displace outcomes across time and/or space.
What does the global climate understanding represents?
edward w. maibach, phd, connie roser-renouf, phd, anthony leiserowitz, phd the understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing
What does the article describes?
this article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives
Explain about framework based on an ecologic model?
pecifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages
edward w. maibach, phd, connie roser-renouf, phd, anthony leiserowitz, phd the understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. this article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change. (am j prev med 2008;35(5):488-500) (c) 2008 american journal of preventive medicine
Why is it not sufficient to only consider average flow?
it is important to observe that for the design and operation of the sewage treatment works it is not sufficient to consider only the average flow
How is domestic sewage flow usually calculated?
normally domestic sewage flow is calculated based on the water consumption in the respective locality
How is water consumption calculated?
the water consumption is usually calculated as a function of the design population and of a value attributed for the average daily per capita water consumption
the concept of domestic flow encompasses the sewage originating from homes, as well as commercial activities and institutions that are normally components of the wastewater characteristics 13 locality. more expressive values originating from significant point sources must be computed separately and added to the global value. normally domestic sewage flow is calculated based on the water consumption in the respective locality. the water consumption is usually calculated as a function of the design population and of a value attributed for the average daily per capita water consumption. it is important to observe that for the design and operation of the sewage treatment works it is not sufficient to consider only the average flow. it is also necessary to quantify the minimum and maximum flowrates, because of hydraulic and process reasons. this section describes the population-forecast studies, the estimates of water consumption and the production of wastewater, together with the variations in flow (minimum and maximum flow).
What are the factors that impact retention?
while several factors impacting retention were consistent across all groups, there was one striking difference in the results for white faculty. the data indicate that white faculty retention is greater where racial climate is more negative (final b -0.05
What are the current breed values?
for instance, white faculty have the advantage of being defined and evaluated as autonomous individuals; meanwhile, faculty of color often experience the pressure of knowing that one's victories and failures will be taken to represent one's entire racial/ethnic category (turner et al., 1999). it is well documented in the literature that faculty of color are more likely to pursue research related to issues of race and gender inequities and social justice
while several factors impacting retention were consistent across all groups, there was one striking difference in the results for white faculty. the data indicate that white faculty retention is greater where racial climate is more negative (final b -0.05). similar to results for faculty of color, institutional characteristics or status adds to the predictive power of the equation; in the experiences of white faculty, institutional characteristics account for 2% of the variance in faculty persistence. in other words, part of the reason for the differences in retention rates among faculty can be explained by the characteristics of their home institutions. thus, it is noteworthy that a negative racial climate may actually benefit white faculty in determining retention outcomes. discussion, conclusions, and implications so often we discuss disadvantage and underrepresentation without mentioning their corollaries--privilege and overrepresentation. mocking this normative social failure to acknowledge systematic advantages afforded to the dominant racial group, tim wise (2005) has pointed out that there cannot be an "up" without a "down," an "in" without an "out," a "bottom" without a "top." several studies have explored the challenges and barriers facing faculty of color in the academy, as this study set out to do, while hardly acknowledging the privileges afforded to white faculty in the process. as such, the discussion must be expanded to include and place greater emphasis on how white faculty benefit from institutional racism irrespective of whether they are consciously aware of or actively support racist attitudes/practices/policies (bonilla-silva, 2003; chesler crowfoot, 2000). in this study, the notion of privilege is most prominently reflected in the relationship between racial climate with both retention and satisfaction across different groups. results from this national study of full-time faculty indicate that not only does a negative racial climate impede job satisfaction for faculty of color, but conversely, a negative racial climate is also associated with greater retention for white faculty. together, these finding highlight the notion that racial hierarchy and advantage can be perpetuated without malicious intent. although the needs of faculty of color and white faculty differ in significant ways, they are in many respects fundamentally similar. the results indicate that while the impact of racial climate on retention and satisfaction is different, faculty of color and white faculty both benefit from higher salaries, greater autonomy and independence, and having one's research valued by colleagues, but are deterred by the promotion process (see table 4). however, in keeping with a critical race theory framework, we recognize that while these values are held in common racial climate and faculty retention 555 regardless of race, they are expressed and experienced by faculty of color and white faculty in profoundly different ways. the disparity in retention rates for faculty of color and white faculty, therefore, may be a function of having the privilege to define what is valued and how excellence is measured. for instance, white faculty have the advantage of being defined and evaluated as autonomous individuals; meanwhile, faculty of color often experience the pressure of knowing that one's victories and failures will be taken to represent one's entire racial/ethnic category (turner et al., 1999). it is well documented in the literature that faculty of color are more likely to pursue research related to issues of race and gender inequities and social justice. white faculty, who have historically dominated the power brokers of higher education institutions, are more likely to fit into and perpetuate previously defined research agendas and values. relative to non-white faculty, they tend to produce scholarship on topics solicited by top tier journals and reach wider audiences of concern in the process. research indicates for many faculty of color, the standards required for tenure proceed down one path, while their personal interests and agendas may follow another. subsequently, as discussed previously, faculty of color are forced to find ways to straddle both successfully, lest they get pushed out of the academy. while there is great value in looking at faculty of color in the aggregate, given the common experience of otherness, we gain a deeper understanding of the needs of specific groups by viewing them separately. for example, the racial climate variable drops out of the faculty of color regression equation at step 3, indicating that the positive association between racial climate and retention can be explained by the ways in which scholarship is evaluated, the autonomy and independence an individual enjoys, and the review and promotion process. however, disaggregating the faculty of color category reveals a lasting negative impact of a hostile racial climate on job satisfaction for black and latina/o faculty that goes beyond autonomy, appreciation afforded in research endeavors, and the promotion process. this does not appear to be the case for asian faculty. thus, when grouping faculty of color together, there is a danger of overlooking the unique circumstances and needs of specific groups. this study sheds light on complex factors contributing to faculty of color satisfaction and retention--both in the aggregate and disaggregated for blacks, asians, and latina/os. among the key factors identified are perceptions of campus racial climate, autonomy and independence, review and promotion process, and having one's research valued by colleagues in the department. the literature has tied these issues to racial inequity in the academy. nonetheless, it must be noted our results 556 the journal of higher education remain a conservative estimate of the negative impact of racial climate on faculty experiences. rather than indicating a negative racial climate is not detrimental to the retention of faculty of color, our findings suggest faculty of color who remained in the academy have found ways to deal with (perhaps through transformative resistance3) the oppressive space a hostile climate can create. what is not accounted for are the experiences of those faculty of color who have already left the academy, quite possibly due to issues resulting from a hostile racial climate. future studies should also examine the factors leading to the attrition of faculty of color. the present findings, however, reveal how faculty of color may overcome a negative racial climate and also suggest tangible steps to be taken by institutional leaders concerned with improving faculty of color retention. for instance, the negative impact of the promotion and tenure process on retention and job satisfaction for faculty of color and white faculty speaks to the need to reform the traditional reward structure of the academy. a starting point may be to reexamine the value placed on mainstream journals and traditional forms of research in the promotion process. considering how autonomy and feeling that one's research is valued are key factors to retaining faculty, a new look at what constitutes valuable research is needed. furthermore, the involvement of faculty of color in evaluating such research and rethinking the promotion and tenure process are essential if efforts to recruit, retain and support faculty of color are to lead to substantive change. while institutional transformation is a slow and difficult process, the alternatives of failing to retain faculty of color and preserving a hostile racial climate are far more detrimental. understanding the factors involved in broaching such change is the first step in the process of achieving greater equity in our society. racial climate and faculty retention 557
What is one reason the equilibrium water table is a useful conceptual tool?
first, it brings out more clearly the first-order spatial variability in water table depth across the continent that results from the long-term balance between large-scale climatic and geologic forcing. it illustrates how the water table depth at any location is a function of both the vertical, climate-induced flux and the lateral, geologically controlled divergence/convergence of surface and subsurface flow. any realistic portrait of the water table conditions, and hence soil moisture conditions, over a continent must consider both these climatic and terrain factors. second, the equilibrium water table provides a means of estimating the parameters needed for modeling groundwater flow, such as hydraulic conductivity and the hydraulic connection between the groundwater and the rivers
If the water table is very deep,  (primarily in the Western part of the US) how does this affect the moisture level of soil?
in other parts of the country, primarily in the west, the water table can be very deep and thus relatively disconnected from soil moisture
What are two factors that must be considered for a realistic portrait of water table conditions over a continent?
any realistic portrait of the water table conditions, and hence soil moisture conditions, over a continent must consider both these climatic and terrain factors
in this paper, we used usgs observations to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of water table depth in the lower 48 states of the united states. we find that, at many sites in the eastern part of the country, as well as in closed basins and mountainous valleys in the west, the water table is shallow, lying within 5 m of the land surface. thus there is a potential for the water table to anchor the soil moisture patterns in these regions. in other parts of the country, primarily in the west, the water table can be very deep and thus relatively disconnected from soil moisture. this large spatial variation in water table depth across the continent underscores the difficulty, from a modeling perspective, of correctly representing soil drainage with a single uniform soil depth. temporally, we observe a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability, at most sites. in addition, upward and downward fluctuations in water table depth at event and diurnal timescales reflect the balance between vertical drainage, lateral subsurface flow to local streams, and the upward flux to feed evapotranspiration. the longer timescales of the lateral processes, as well as the inertia provided by the large groundwater reservoir, have a potential for increasing soil moisture memory. while providing the best available direct observational coverage, water table observations are still scattered and sparse in most areas. our findings point to the lack of, and hence the need to improve, large-scale and long-term water table observations, as well as the need to extend our hydrologic database deeper into the earth's crust. for now, we use a simple two-dimensional groundwater flow model, constrained by the usgs observations, to construct an equilibrium water table as a means for synthesizing and interpolating between the measurements. this equilibrium water table is a useful conceptual and practical tool, for two reasons. first, it brings out more clearly the first-order spatial variability in water table depth across the continent that results from the long-term balance between large-scale climatic and geologic forcing. it illustrates how the water table depth at any location is a function of both the vertical, climate-induced flux and the lateral, geologically controlled divergence/convergence of surface and subsurface flow. any realistic portrait of the water table conditions, and hence soil moisture conditions, over a continent must consider both these climatic and terrain factors. second, the equilibrium water table provides a means of estimating the parameters needed for modeling groundwater flow, such as hydraulic conductivity and the hydraulic connection between the groundwater and the rivers. these hydraulic parameters are linked to the hydrologic equilibrium in a given climatic and geologic setting, enabling us to estimate them from the equilibrium water table using inverse methods. in the next paper, part 2, we incorporate the water table dynamics in a climate model and explicitly investigate the role of the groundwater reservoir as a driver of soil moisture at continental scales. acknowledgments. this research is supported by the following grants: nsf-ear-0340780, nsf-atm-0450334, noaa-na16gp1618, and new jersey department of environmental protection sr03-073. in this work, we made use of vic retrospective hydrologic simulations maurer et al. 2002; nijssen et al. 2001], and we gratefully acknowledge their efforts in producing such a valuable data set for the community. finally, we thank the jgr atmospheres reviewers and editors for their constructive comments which helped to improve the manuscript significantly.
what leads to increased exclusion?
a cold atlantic
there is agreement among the models that a cold pacific results in a reduction of precipitation, whereas a warm pacific produces precipitation increases. also, there is general agreement that a warm atlantic leads to reduced precipitation whereas a cold atlantic leads to increased precipitation, though with substantially smaller amplitudes, especially for the response to the cold atlantic. overall, the models agree that the combination of a cold pacific and warm atlantic (pcaw) tends to produces the largest precipitation deficits, whereas the combination of a warm pacific and cold atlantic (pwac) tends to produce the largest precipitation surpluses. there is somewhat less agreement for the surface temperature responses (fig. 8b), with generally positive (negative) temperature anomalies associated with precipitation deficits (surpluses), but that is not the case for the gfs model (and to a lesser degree the nsipp-1 model), which shows strong, warm anomalies associated with
What is the change in bias?
the change in bias is equivalent to the future bias remaining after a correction based on the calibration period
When does the bias correction improves the results?
when the uncorrected future bias is larger than the present day bias, bias correction improves the results
the change in bias is equivalent to the future bias remaining after a correction based on the calibration period. when the uncorrected future bias is larger than the present day bias, bias correction improves the results. even when the uncorrected future temperature bias is smaller than the calibration bias, the absolute remaining bias might still be smaller than without correction, although the remaining bias changes sign. only when the uncorrected future bias reduces to less than half the calibration bias, bias correction deteriorates the original future simulation. a similar argument holds in case of precipitation, but positive (negative) values have to be replaced by values larger (smaller) one. to highlight the actual reduction in bias, i consider the improvement in absolute bias as the difference (ratio for precipitation) between the absolute future bias without correction and with correction:
What is the cost of NO?
respondents who said 'no' to the first wtp question were asked whether they would be willing to pay if a global co-operation could be reached
How many respondents are unsure?
thirteen percent of the respondents said that they were unsure about their preferences and the rest said that they would not pay
Who did say 'Yes', who 'Maybe Yes' and why?
five percent (n=21) of those who said 'no' to the first wtp question indicated that they would definitely pay if the major ghg emitting countries implement a similar scheme while about fifty percent (n=208) selected the 'maybe yes' option as a response to this question
respondents who said 'no' to the first wtp question were asked whether they would be willing to pay if a global co-operation could be reached. a polychotomous (pc) choice format (i don't know, definitely yes, maybe yes, definitely no, maybe no) was applied to allow respondents to express their levels of confidence with their decision (ready et al. 1995). five percent (n=21) of those who said 'no' to the first wtp question indicated that they would definitely pay if the major ghg emitting countries implement a similar scheme while about fifty percent (n=208) selected the 'maybe yes' option as a response to this question. thirteen percent of the respondents said that they were unsure about their preferences and the rest said that they would not pay.
Why would climate change affect the poor to a larger extent?
since the poor tend to spend the highest share of their income on food, adverse climate change is expected to have a disproportionately adverse impact on the poor. further, these price increases stemming from a decline in agricultural productivity will be felt by all low income households - not just those in agriculture
Is the assumption that farm prices won't change with climate change valid?
the assumption that farm prices will be unchanged in the face of global climate change is unlikely to be valid and is inconsistent with the emergence of regional food deficits
How can one demonstrate the impact of food price increases on income?
if a family spends half its income on food, and food prices rise by 50%, then their real income will fall by about 25% 0.5 50%, ing from second-order effects stemming from price-induced changes in their consumption bundle
to a first approximation, the household's current food budget share offers a good estimate of the impact of a food price increases on real income. if a family spends half its income on food, and food prices rise by 50%, then their real income will fall by about 25% 0.5 50%, ing from second-order effects stemming from price-induced changes in their consumption bundle. since the poor tend to spend the highest share of their income on food, adverse climate change is expected to have a disproportionately adverse impact on the poor. further, these price increases stemming from a decline in agricultural productivity will be felt by all low income households - not just those in agriculture. impacts on farm household earnings in the absence of commodity price changes, adverse impacts on productivity due to climate change will reduce farm earnings (lower output per unit input generates lower profits). these losses are likely to be magnified if farmer-owned inputs are not the only factors of production. for example, if farm-owned inputs account for half of total costs and the prices of purchased (i.e. non-farm owned) inputs are exogenous to agriculture, then, in the absence of a commodity price rise a one percent decline in agricultural productivity will result in a two percent decline in farm income. this magnification effect arises because farmers cannot share the burden of the adverse productivity change with the suppliers of non-farm inputs. of course, if the non-farm inputs are not in perfectly elastic supply, then some of the losses will be shared with suppliers of inputs (e.g. fertilizer producers) in the form of lower prices. because poor households are likely to be less commercialized, this magnification effect will typically be less pronounced for them. however, the assumption that farm prices will be unchanged in the face of global climate however, the assumption that farm prices will be unchanged in the face of global climate change is unlikely to be valid and is inconsistent with the emergence of regional food deficits.
what is the third significant point of this survey?
3) identification of probabilistic sea level change scenarios at each of the study sites
where are the probabilistic projections of sea level rise available for each site?
probabilistic sea level rise projections for each site are available in u.s. epa (1995
this study has five main components: 1) selection of study sites on the east, west, and gulf of mexico coasts of the united states, 2) quantification of the current areas of intertidal feeding habitats for shorebirds at each of the study sites, 3) identification of probabilistic sea level change scenarios at each of the study sites, 4) projection of changes in the extents of intertidal feeding habitats in response to sea level change, and 5) evaluation of the likely effects of the predicted habitat changes on shorebird numbers at each of the study sites. study site selection study sites were selected based on five criteria: 1) they were categorized by the ramsar convention or by the western hemisphere shorebird reserve network (whsrn) as at least of hemispheric importance for migratory or wintering shorebirds, 2) shorebird census data were available, 3) probabilistic sea level rise scenarios were available, 4) digital information on the extents of intertidal habitats was available, and 5) digital elevation maps were available. using these criteria, five study sites were selected (fig. 1). these were willapa bay in southern washington, humboldt and san francisco bays in northern california, bolivar flats in northeast texas, and delaware bay in newjersey and delaware. each of these sites is listed by the ramsar convention or the whsrn as being of international or hemispheric importance for shorebirds. count data from the pacific flyway project and the international shorebird survey confirm that large numbers of shorebirds (tens to hundreds of thousands) use each of these sites during migration and, in the cases of san francisco bay and humboldt bay, in the winter (page et al. 1999; harrington et al. 1989). probabilistic sea level rise projections for each site are available in u.s. epa (1995), and digital habitat data and digital elevation model (dem) maps were obtained from the u.s. fish and wildlife service's national wetlands inventory (nwi) and the u.s. geological survey, respectively. current extents of intertidal foraging habitat at study sites although a small number of north american coastal shorebird species feed exclusively on rocky shores, and
What is the american journal based upon?
 american journal of physical anthropology selection-based hypothesis
What do the associations examine?
we examine associations with historical temperature, elevation, and other apoe alleles to more rigorously assess the role that temperature, as a proxy for metabolic rate, might have played in the evolution of the apoe polymorphism in modern humans
What causes high cholestrol levels?
under the assumption that metabolism is driving demand for higher cholesterol levels, we further hypothesize that [h3] temperature is more closely related to e 4 frequency than latitude and that [h4] increasing elevation, which causes colder temperatures, will also be associated with e 4 frequency. because the locus under study is actually composed of three common alleles that influence cholesterol levels, we further predict [h5] that combining these alleles into one measure reflective of their association with cholesterol levels will reveal an even stronger association of apoe with absolute latitude than e 4 alone
d.t.a. eisenberg et al. american journal of physical anthropology selection-based hypothesis. finally, we examine associations with historical temperature, elevation, and other apoe alleles to more rigorously assess the role that temperature, as a proxy for metabolic rate, might have played in the evolution of the apoe polymorphism in modern humans. we use these data to test the following hypotheses: [h1] e 4 allele frequency is increased in latitudes associated with higher metabolic rates; [h2] the worldwide distribution of e 4 frequencies is independent of population structure, thus supporting the idea that natural selection has created the latitudinal gradient. under the assumption that metabolism is driving demand for higher cholesterol levels, we further hypothesize that [h3] temperature is more closely related to e 4 frequency than latitude and that [h4] increasing elevation, which causes colder temperatures, will also be associated with e 4 frequency. because the locus under study is actually composed of three common alleles that influence cholesterol levels, we further predict [h5] that combining these alleles into one measure reflective of their association with cholesterol levels will reveal an even stronger association of apoe with absolute latitude than e 4 alone.
What are the spatially correlated data used in Fig 4 ?
this is exemplified in fig. 4 by showing the spatial correlation fields between mean jfma stockholm data and gridded temperatures over europe based on data for the period 1850- 2007
What was the result of change from instrumental to documentary data in which series and in which year ?
a drop in correlations between the two series before 1900, to near or below the 0.05 significance level, may be explained by the change from instrumental to documentary data at 1892 in the stockholm series
What was the time period for decrease in correlations ?
other sudden decreases in correlations between the series occur before 1560 and around 1640
it must be stressed that a substantial part of the differences between the two reconstructions can be related to natural differences in the spatial-temporal temperature variability over southern scandinavia and central europe. this is exemplified in fig. 4 by showing the spatial correlation fields between mean jfma stockholm data and gridded temperatures over europe based on data for the period 1850- 2007. from this analysis, correlations between jfma temperature variations at stockholm and in central europe can be expected to lie in the range between 0.5 and 0.7. figure 3 d, however, shows that correlations may be even stronger in the instrumental period. a drop in correlations between the two series before 1900, to near or below the 0.05 significance level, may be explained by the change from instrumental to documentary data at 1892 in the stockholm series. other sudden decreases in correlations between the series occur before 1560 and around 1640, even becoming negative (see fig. 3 d). however, colder sub-periods of the documentary part of the records (1575-1625 and 1670-1700) show quite strong and significant correlations, and in some periods the correlation between the documentary data series are nearly as high as in the instrumental data. because of lack of instrumental data for the full five-century period, it is questionable whether correlations between
What factor can reduce the impact of edge effects and make populations less susceptible to extinctions?
for example, increasing habitat quality or area (e.g., by creating or restoring habitat adjacent to occupied patches) can reduce the impact of edge effects and increase population sizes, making populations less susceptible to extinctions induced by environmental and demographic stochasticity
Increases in habitat quality increase or decrease connectivity of populations?
simultaneously, these actions also increase functional connectivity of populations (by increasing propagule pressure and colonization probability
Increases in habitat quality increase or decrease the genetic variation of populations?
and increase the genetic variation within populations, giving them greater capacity to evolve tolerance to environmental drivers
although the complexity of interactions between global change drivers can be daunting, it is reassuring the relatively simple actions may reduce the impacts of a number of drivers simultaneously. for example, increasing habitat quality or area (e.g., by creating or restoring habitat adjacent to occupied patches) can reduce the impact of edge effects and increase population sizes, making populations less susceptible to extinctions induced by environmental and demographic stochasticity. simultaneously, these actions also increase functional connectivity of populations (by increasing propagule pressure and colonization probability; 184) and increase the genetic variation within populations, giving them greater capacity to evolve tolerance to environmental drivers.127
What is the right way to ask people to make substantial sacrifices for reducing greenhouse gas emisions?
the threat of irreversible and non-substitutable loss of natural capital if we fail to reduce emissions
What do the people who do the studies understand?
first, many effects of climate change simply cannot be adequately monetarily valued. second, what can be valued needs to be transformed from values in the far distant future to present values and any cba recommendation is therefore crucially dependent on the discount rate used, which is in turn inextricably linked to normative value judgements
Can this article be based on actual numbers?
conclusion whether and how to act against climate change cannot be decided on the basis of "hard numbers" because there are no "hard numbers" when it comes to climate change
conclusion whether and how to act against climate change cannot be decided on the basis of "hard numbers" because there are no "hard numbers" when it comes to climate change. to outsiders, the cba studies of economists may suggest otherwise. but those who understand what the studies do, also know two things. first, many effects of climate change simply cannot be adequately monetarily valued. second, what can be valued needs to be transformed from values in the far distant future to present values and any cba recommendation is therefore crucially dependent on the discount rate used, which is in turn inextricably linked to normative value judgements. it follows that, one way or the other, the decision-making toward climate change is heavily influenced by ethical choices. but it is important that we face the real issues when making ethical choices and orient the discussion toward what matters to people. i contend that those who believe that the current generation should take immediate and decisive action against climate change need to go beyond arguing for a low discount rate. otherwise, the case for action crucially depends on asking the current generation to make 11 substantial sacrifices for cushioning consumption losses to future generations that are much better off than us anyway. this will not be very popular once voters understand what they are being asked to do. it will be even less popular when critics point out that the very favourable benefit-cost ratios of action presented by the stern review diminish and even turn negative with different, and a priori no less valid, assumptions about the components of the discount rate. fortunately, few people would want the future to be worse off than us or would want to violate the inalienable rights of future generations. they are also possibly willing to sacrifice quite a bit for preventing this from happening. hence, if one can convince voters and politicians of the case for non-substitutability, then there is a much better chance of gathering enough support for the measures described in the stern review to keep the world within the 450-550 ppm threshold. i also contend that the non-substitutability issue is much closer to the real concerns of people. by contrast, cba studies of climate change and the debate on the discount rate are strangely out of touch with reality. voters and politicians who favour decisive and urgent action surely do not do so because they want to save much better off future generations from some consumption loss that, even if it happened, would still leave them much better off than us. instead, they are concerned that climate change is like no other and that its sheer scale and extent of damage threatens to create a new bio-physical world that either leaves the future worse off or violates their inalienable rights, despite consumption growth. it may come as a surprise to some economists, but article 2 of the united nations framework convention on climate change calls for 'stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system', not for maximizing the present discounted value of an inter-temporal social welfare function. 12 that limiting climate change is costly is no reason against action. however, if we are going to ask people to make substantial sacrifices for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, then let us do so for the right reason: the threat of irreversible and non-substitutable loss of natural capital if we fail to reduce emissions.
What should evaluate the Oxygen balance in the first cell (production and consumption)?
the design should evaluate the oxygen balance in the first cell (production and consumption), or verify that the surface loading rate is not excessive in the first cell
Which aspect is very important in primary ponds that receive raw sewage?
this overloading aspect is very important in primary ponds (that receive raw sewage), and frequently restricts the utilisation of facultative ponds in series ponds in series are more used for the removal of pathogens (maturation ponds), in which there should be no problems with organic overloading in the first cell
What should be taken into account if the ponds are in series?
organic overload in the first cell if the ponds are in series, it should be taken into account that the first cell may be overloaded, because it receives the entire influent load, with the possibility of having anaerobic conditions
organic overload in the first cell if the ponds are in series, it should be taken into account that the first cell may be overloaded, because it receives the entire influent load, with the possibility of having anaerobic conditions. the design should evaluate the oxygen balance in the first cell (production and consumption), or verify that the surface loading rate is not excessive in the first cell. to minimise this situation, cells of different sizes can be adopted, with the first unit having the largest area. however, the subsequent units could be considered to be more maturation ponds than facultative ponds as such. this overloading aspect is very important in primary ponds (that receive raw sewage), and frequently restricts the utilisation of facultative ponds in series ponds in series are more used for the removal of pathogens (maturation ponds), in which there should be no problems with organic overloading in the first cell.
What's the social impact of a war?
war is, no doubt, an extremely complicated social phenomenon, and many scholars have investigated the problem of the causes of war since the days of thucydides si text and ref. 31). sadly, scholars have made at best modest progress on the problem even though members of all of the social sciences have addressed it (32
Why were studies conducted for?
our approach has not been to examine causes of individual wars, but to investigate the frequency of all wars during a specific period of human history and find out when, where, and why the war-peace cycles occurred
And the results of the studies are?
our results not only answered when and where most of wars occurred, but also imply that relative food scarcity was a fundamental cause of war outbreaks according to our quantitative analysis on various physical and social components and in different geographical regions
war is, no doubt, an extremely complicated social phenomenon, and many scholars have investigated the problem of the causes of war since the days of thucydides si text and ref. 31). sadly, scholars have made at best modest progress on the problem even though members of all of the social sciences have addressed it (32). some of these theories may explain certain wars, and some of the theories may even explain sizable classes of wars, but none of them can explain the temporal and spatial patterns of warfare presented above. our approach has not been to examine causes of individual wars, but to investigate the frequency of all wars during a specific period of human history and find out when, where, and why the war-peace cycles occurred. our results not only answered when and where most of wars occurred, but also imply that relative food scarcity was a fundamental cause of war outbreaks according to our quantitative analysis on various physical and social components and in different geographical regions. such a resource scarcity manifested itself in two causal pathways: a direct cause, in which resource-oriented wars erupted as most of the world's population still struggled to satisfy the lower levels of maslow's hierarchy of needs (33), and an indirect cause, as constrained food resources and economic difficulties stemming from that intensified different social contradictions, that increased the likelihood of war outbreaks.
What did The New Economics Foundation warn in September 2003?
the new economics foundation warned in september 2003 that the rich countries of the world must be prepared to take their fair share of the refugees created by climate change, in an extension of the ' polluters pay ' principle
What is happening to the cost of supporting climate refugees?
the cost of supporting climate refugees is now a matter for open negotiations
Which countries will have to be prepared to take their fair share of refugees created by climate change?
the rich countries of the world
the cost of supporting climate refugees is now a matter for open negotiations. many are now questioning why, when it is the rich countries that are creating the pollution that is driving climate change, it falls on the shoulders of many of the world's poorest countries, and continents, to foot the bill for those peoples displaced by that climate change. the new economics foundation warned in september 2003 that the rich countries of the world must be prepared to take their fair share of the refugees created by climate change, in an extension of the ' polluters pay ' principle. this states that: 2
What type of impacts can be better assessed by end users through precipitation downs along?
helps end users to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change
What types of specialists' contribute to identify generic end users for this paper?
meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user
What two factors should be independent for end users needing a reliable representation of precipitation intensities?
independent of region and season
precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change. this paper integrates perspectives from meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user (in particular, impact modeler) needs and to discuss downscaling capabilities and gaps. end users need a reliable representation of precipitation intensities and temporal and spatial variability, as well as physical consistency, independent of region and season. in addition to presenting dynamical downscaling, we review perfect prognosis statistical downscaling, model output statistics, and weather generators, focusing on recent developments to improve the representation of space - time variability. furthermore, evaluation techniques to assess downscaling skill are presented. downscaling adds considerablevalue toprojectionsfrom global climatemodels. remaining gaps are uncertainties arising from sparse data; representation of extreme summer precipitation, subdaily precipitation, and full precipitation fields on fine scales; capturing changes in small - scale processes and their feedback on large scales; and errors inherited from the driving global climate model.
Which increases the need for accurate climate projections?
anticipated future warming of the climate system increases the need for accurate climate projections
Which increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by several orders of magnitude?
we present a neural network based climate model substitute that increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by several orders of magnitude
What is the probability percentage of surface warming projected for the next century estimated by IPCC?
we find a probability of about 40% that the surface warming projected for the next century exceeds the uncertainty range estimated by ipcc
anticipated future warming of the climate system increases the need for accurate climate projections. a central problem are the large uncertainties associated with these model projections, and that uncertainty estimates are often based on expert judgment rather than objective quantitative methods. further, important climate model parameters are still given as poorly constrained ranges that are partly inconsistent with the observed warming during the industrial period. we present a neural network based climate model substitute that increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by several orders of magnitude. using the observed surface warming over the industrial period and estimates of global ocean heat uptake as constraints for the ensemble, this method estimates ranges for climate sensitivity and radiative forcing that are consistent with observations. probability density functions for the surface warming until year 2100 for two illustrative emission scenarios are calculated, taking into account uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, model parameters and the observed temperature records. we find a probability of about 40% that the surface warming projected for the next century exceeds the uncertainty range estimated by ipcc. projection uncertainties are only consistent with ipcc if a modelderived upper limit of about 5 k is assumed for climate sensitivity.
What is rural population density used as a proxy for?
we used rural population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climatehazard exposure
According to Moser and Satterthwaite (2008),  what is the key determinant of individuals, households, or communities' adaptive capacity both to reduce risk and to cope with and adapt to increased risk levels?
according to moser and satterthwaite (2008), the key determinant of individuals, households, or communities' adaptive capacity both to reduce risk and to cope with and adapt to increased risk levels is their asset portfolio
What is adaptive capacity?
adaptive capacity is "the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change
rural population density: we used rural population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climatehazard exposure. population density provides an indication of the number of people that could be affected by disasters and related human loss (hegglin and huggel, 2008; yusuf and francisco, 2009). the assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited are less sensitive in terms of adverse climate change outcomes compared to regions with high population densities, given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards. 2.3. adaptive capacity adaptive capacity is "the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change. it, therefore, characterises the responsiveness of the system and its ability to exploit opportunities and resist or recover from the negative effects of a changing environment" (ipcc, 2007). according to moser and satterthwaite (2008), the key determinant of individuals, households, or communities' adaptive capacity both to reduce risk and to cope with and adapt to increased risk levels is their asset portfolio. there are close linkages between vulnerability and livelihoods, and building
What does the atmosphere respond to?
the atmosphere responds to the exchange of energy, water, and momentum from the land, ocean, or ice
Croplands, pasture, and urban areas cover nearly what percent of the continental surfaces?
together, croplands, pasture, and urban areas cover nearly 35% (about 55 million km2) of the continental surfaces (ramankutty and foley 1999; ramankutty et al unpublished
Any change in this surface flux can strongly affect what?
any change in this surface flux can strongly affect atmospheric thermodynamics and circulation - changes such as an increase in ocean temperatures during an el nino event, the collapse of a massive ice sheet, or the replacement of a tropical rainforest with pasture
the atmosphere responds to the exchange of energy, water, and momentum from the land, ocean, or ice. any change in this surface flux can strongly affect atmospheric thermodynamics and circulation - changes such as an increase in ocean temperatures during an el nino event, the collapse of a massive ice sheet, or the replacement of a tropical rainforest with pasture. changes in land use and cover can also affect biophysical surface fluxes in several ways. first, they can modify the surface albedo (the fraction of solar radiation that is reflected), thereby changing the energy balance and the surface temperature. this, in turn, affects how the surface cools itself, by shifting the balance between sensible heat loss (the cooling of a warm surface by the wind) and latent heat loss (cooling through evapotranspiration). finally, vegetative height and density affect the roughness of the land surface, which itself influences the mixing of air close to the ground. rough surfaces mix air more efficiently, enhancing both cooling processes. changes in albedo, surface roughness, and the ratio between sensible and latent heat loss can all affect surface fluxes and, as a result, modify the climate. much of the world's land surface has already been cleared for agriculture or human settlements. together, croplands, pasture, and urban areas cover nearly 35% (about 55 million km2) of the continental surfaces (ramankutty and foley 1999; ramankutty et al unpublished). to a large extent, the only two remaining areas to be exploited for human use, excluding the desert and polar regions, are the tropical rainforests of south america, africa, and southeast asia, and the boreal forests of
What Mukheibir and Ziervogel argue for?
mukheibir and ziervogel argue the need for a consolidated and coordinated approach to adaptation to projected climate impacts on a municipal scale because it is at this level that people are directly affected by climate-induced impacts and it is at this level that institutional solutions that target wide numbers of people can be introduced
What is necessary to develop?
it is, therefore, necessary to develop a framework for adaptation to climate change that enables the most urgent local adaptation activities and identifies the necessary local human and financial resources
What does the development plans needed?
there is a need for a clear urban agenda that focuses on building adaptation frameworks within the development plans
mukheibir and ziervogel argue the need for a consolidated and coordinated approach to adaptation to projected climate impacts on a municipal scale because it is at this level that people are directly affected by climate-induced impacts and it is at this level that institutional solutions that target wide numbers of people can be introduced.(11)it is, therefore, necessary to develop a framework for adaptation to climate change that enables the most urgent local adaptation activities and identifies the necessary local human and financial resources. there is a need for a clear urban agenda that focuses on building adaptation frameworks within the development plans.
Define conclusions bear crucially?
these conclusions bear crucially on current climate politics. not only have development institutions such as theworld bank takena prominent role in climate mitigation (redman, 2008
Define governments and activists?
in addition, governments and activists alike frequently claim that there is a need to address climate and international development concerns together, whether to head off global social unrest or to address the issue of social justice
Define ex-mining executive?
just as the ex-mining executive hernando de soto pioneered, in the 1990s, the idea that poverty could be addressed by relatively simple legal and financial reforms turning the 'dead' assets the poor already possess
these conclusions bear crucially on current climate politics. not only have development institutions such as theworld bank takena prominent role in climate mitigation (redman, 2008). in addition, governments and activists alike frequently claim that there is a need to address climate and international development concerns together, whether to head off global social unrest or to address the issue of social justice. international climate negotiations themselves largely consist of a series of deals about capital flows, trade and other economic issues that have come to define the development concept.yet the historical reality of development is seldom considered in this discussion (a fact which is itself part of the development dynamic), least of all its role in the creation of widespread ignorance an increasingly important concept in an age of global warming. since the advent of the global warming crisis, institutions and practices associated with development have played a large part in the coproduction of knowledge and ignorance about a range of climate issues. one example is the way that both climate change denialists and many climatologists rightly concerned about global warming have fitted much of their scientific reasoning about atmospheric processes to the norms of international investment, risk assessment and rational choice theory (lohmann, forthcoming). more significant for the politics of knowledge, however, is the way high-level international and national policy responses to climate change have been dominated for the last decade bycarbontrading the construction of markets that use the earth's carbon-cycling capacity as a commodity (lohmann, 2006). just as the ex-mining executive hernando de soto pioneered, in the 1990s, the idea that poverty could be addressed by relatively simple legal and financial reforms turning the 'dead' assets the poor already possess in the form of their houses into 'live'capital by treating them as collateral, or bringing them 'inside the capitalist economy' (de soto, 2000), so, during the same period, was born the idea that global warming could be addressed by the benign and relatively painless process of turning hitherto 'unpriced' greenhouse gas pollution into a tradable, ownable commodity. both ideas are untenable, but in a sense it is not their function to be tenable. rather, both 'form part of the
which define organic matter?
as mentioned, the organic matter can be considered as having a soluble fraction, corresponding to the dissolved organic solids (most being rapidly biodegradable), and a suspended or particulate fraction, relative to the suspended solids (slowly biodegradable
Explain about BOD5 or COD?
n terms of carbonaceous matter, the present text adopts bod5 or cod as variables representing the substrate
How to make traditionally designed BOD5?
in order to make the text more applicable, the treatment processes that have been traditionally designed using bod5 maintain it as the basic variable
as mentioned, the organic matter can be considered as having a soluble fraction, corresponding to the dissolved organic solids (most being rapidly biodegradable), and a suspended or particulate fraction, relative to the suspended solids (slowly biodegradable). in terms of carbonaceous matter, the present text adopts bod5 or cod as variables representing the substrate. in order to make the text more applicable, the treatment processes that have been traditionally designed using bod5 maintain it as the basic variable. on the other hand, the more recent processes that have been using cod for design are also described in terms of cod. as a result, the following variables are adopted in terms of the representation of the substrate (carbonaceous matter):
What is enabiling?
enabling is a form of voluntary governance which could be developed further because, even in the absence of regulation and subsidisation, it is possible to create incentives to institutionalise climate change policy at local level
What benchmarking can do?
benchmarking certainly helps to generate more action on the ground. competitions and awards can be used to recognise the best-performing local authorities
There is an example of benchmarking in the present?
an example is the 'competition for the capital city in climate protection' ('wettbewerb bundeshauptstadt im klimaschutz') which was initiated by the german federal government
enabling is a form of voluntary governance which could be developed further because, even in the absence of regulation and subsidisation, it is possible to create incentives to institutionalise climate change policy at local level. best-practice transfer can be expanded in two directions: first, benchmarking certainly helps to generate more action on the ground. competitions and awards can be used to recognise the best-performing local authorities. an example is the 'competition for the capital city in climate protection' ('wettbewerb bundeshauptstadt im klimaschutz') which was initiated by the german federal government. benchmarking is also crucial for the 'local governments climate partnership', a research and development project funded by the german federal environmental agency and run by the climate alliance, which is based on a benchmarking system for the analysis of climate protection activities in germany, japan and the usa9. in addition, ngos frequently use
What are some of the variables that the researchers considered in the sensitivity model?
several of the variables included in the sensitivity model are known broadly to be important features controlling species vulnerability in a wide variety of habitats and ecosystems (furness and tasker 2000, iucn 2001), including small population size, limited geographic distribution, specialized diet, low dispersal, and site fidelity
What type of habitat did the researchers study?
factors included in the model that make the exercise specific to arctic marine mammals include arctic habitat choice (table 1) and flexibility with respect to changes in sea ice regime and prey base
several of the variables included in the sensitivity model are known broadly to be important features controlling species vulnerability in a wide variety of habitats and ecosystems (furness and tasker 2000, iucn 2001), including small population size, limited geographic distribution, specialized diet, low dispersal, and site fidelity. factors included in the model that make the exercise specific to arctic marine mammals include arctic habitat choice (table 1) and flexibility with respect to changes in sea ice regime and prey base. species sensitivity scores ranged from 12 to 25 and were spread well across the potential range of values (table 2). the position of each species on this index was fairly robust to small changes in individual scores since the index ranges over 19 points, with species fairly evenly spread across this entire range of scores. some factors were based on objective and published criteria (population sizes, rmax) while others were based on a more subjective expert assessment (influences of changes in sea ice or trophic web). each factor received equal weight in computing the index, yet weighting could be applied to factors as further data become available on what features influence vulnerability to climate warming. the three most sensitive species (scores  15) were the hooded seal, the narwhal, and the polar bear. species
how many deep-sea species of Poseidonamicus Samples were used in this study?
9
how were sample ages estimated?
by using revised age models based on biostratigraphic events
why was it decided to analyze the last juvenile rather than adult instar?
because the former were generally more abundant than the latter, which allowed for the inclusion of more populations, and more measurable individuals per population
we measured body size as valve length in 1,353 individuals from 106 populations representing 19 deep-sea species of poseidonamicus samples used in this study derive primarily from cores from the deep sea drilling project (dsdp), supplemented with some dredge samples. these samples range from the eocene to the recent, recording  40 million years of body size evolution. sample ages were estimated by using revised age models based on biostratigraphic events, mostly from the initial reports of the dsdp, updated to recent syntheses of cenozoic chronology (41, 42). these age models are available upon request from the authors. specimens from the same dredge or core sample (or in some cases, from multiple closely spaced core samples) were aggregated into populations for analysis. mean body sizes, paleotemperatures, and ages for all analyzed populations are listed in table 4, which is published as supporting information on the pnas web site. anterior-posterior length was measured from digital scanning electron microscopic images of individual poseidonamicus valves using the software tpsdig (43). only individuals from the last juvenile instar were included in the analysis. growth in podocopid ostracode species is determinate, with a fixed number of molt stages, usually nine (44). in poseidonamicus instars can be readily identified on the basis of size clusters (45) and instar-specific morphological characters (46). we analyzed the last juvenile rather than adult instar, because the former were generally more abundant than the latter, which allowed for the inclusion of more populations, and more measurable individuals per population. in addition, sexual dimorphism in the adult carapace requires that males and females be analyzed separately, further lowering sample sizes. the carapace length of the last juvenile instar is highly correlated with that of the adults r  0.99 for populations with at least five individuals in each instar, n  51), and therefore valve length in the last juvenile instar is an excellent proxy for adult body size. left and right valves of this instar do not differ in length and were pooled within samples. all analyses were performed by using population means (rather than individual specimens) as the unit of analysis so that samples with many individuals would not disproportionately influence the results. we did not omit samples with few individuals, because differences among populations were large relative to variation within populations (within-population coefficients of variation averaged  3.0). consequently, even imprecisely estimated population means could inform betweenspecies differences. sensitivity analyses show that our results do not differ qualitatively if we omit populations represented by fewer than five individuals. in addition, log-transforming body size does not have any substantial effect on the results presented.
What two ways can sediment core date be collected?
either using data derived from a sediment core itself using an appropriate proxy and/or by using independent data from historical archives or observational timeseries, if such exist
Why is data on trends in driver variables limited?
over the longer time-scales needed for analysis with sediment core data
Why are changes in biology of lakes not easy to expain?
absence of equivalent high quality data documenting changes in the environmental pressures that lakes face
changes in the biology of lakes recorded by lake sediments or by long-term observations are not always easy to explain in the absence of equivalent high quality data documenting changes in the environmental pressures that lakes face. such data need to be compiled in detail and with accuracy to enable driver and response variables to be analysed together quantitatively. however, data on trends in driver variables are often limited, especially over the longer time-scales needed for analysis with sediment core data. potentially they can be generated in two complementary ways, either using data derived from a sediment core itself using an appropriate proxy and/or by using independent data from historical archives or observational timeseries, if such exist (lotter anderson, 2012).
In the paragraph, what is reviewed?
we review the literature on organizational climate and culture paying specific attention to articles published in the journal of applied psychology jap since its first volume in 1917
What does JAP stand for?
we review the literature on organizational climate and culture paying specific attention to articles published in the journal of applied psychology jap since its first volume in 1917
What does the article trace?
 the article traces the history of the two constructs though jap has been far more important for climate than culture research
we review the literature on organizational climate and culture paying specific attention to articles published in the journal of applied psychology jap since its first volume in 1917. the article traces the history of the two constructs though jap has been far more important for climate than culture research. we distinguish four main periods: the pre-1971 era, with pioneering work on exploring conceptualization and operationalizations of the climate construct; the 1971 - 1985 era, with foundational work on aggregation issues, outcome-focused climates (on safety and service) and early writings on culture; the 1986 - 1999 era, characterized by solidification of a focused climate approach to understanding organizational processes (justice, discrimination) and outcomes (safety, service) and the beginnings of survey approaches to culture; and the 2000 - 2014 era, characterized by multi-level work on climate, climate strength, demonstrated validity for a climate approach to outcomes and processes, and the relationship between leadership and climate and culture. we summarize and comment on the major theory and research achievements in each period, showing trends observed in the literature and how jap has contributed greatly to moving research on these constructs, especially climate, forward. we also recommend directions for future research given the current state of knowledge.
According to the data, what correlates with the extreme reduction of Antarctic fur seal pup production?
analysis of these data has indicated that positive sea surface temperature anomalies at south georgia preceded by, and cross-correlated with, frequent el nin~o-la nina events between 1987 and 1998 explained extreme reductions in antarctic fur seal pup production over a 20-year study period (forcada et al. 2005
According to the data, what may affect calving success of the southern right whale?
comparison of calving rate in argentina to sea surface temperatures in the south-west atlantic and the el nin~o 4 region (in the western pacific) showed that there was a strong relationship between calving success and temperature anomalies at south georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean el nin~o 4 temperature anomalies delayed by 6 years
Name three things that are affecting the return of sperm whale populations.
sperm whale populations were heavily affected by commercial whaling and recovery of these slow breeding animals is protracted. climate change may further impair any recovery
pinnipeds are generally easier to monitor than cetaceans and the breeding assemblages of antarctic fur seals arctocephalus gazella at south georgia have been monitored since the summer of 1984/1985. analysis of these data has indicated that positive sea surface temperature anomalies at south georgia preceded by, and cross-correlated with, frequent el nin~o-la nina events between 1987 and 1998 explained extreme reductions in antarctic fur seal pup production over a 20-year study period (forcada et al. 2005). these anomalies were probably associated with low availability of prey, mainly krill. a link has been demonstrated between climate change and the reproductive success of the southern right whale eubalaena australis which is the more numerous of the two right whale species (leaper et al. 2006). comparison of calving rate in argentina to sea surface temperatures in the south-west atlantic and the el nin~o 4 region (in the western pacific) showed that there was a strong relationship between calving success and temperature anomalies at south georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean el nin~o 4 temperature anomalies delayed by 6 years. there are other signals from cetaceans that breeding is, or will be, affected. sperm whale populations were heavily affected by commercial whaling and recovery of these slow breeding animals is protracted. climate change may further impair any recovery and the
How much was the average correlation coefficient between the median of simulated daily sweats and the measured daily sap flows?
was 0.87
How much was the average regression coefficient?
was 0.68
the mean correlation coefficient between the median of the simulated daily transpirations and the measured daily sap flows was 0.87. the mean regression coefficient was 0.68 (table 3). the model captured most of the variability of the sap flow measurements both at the short and the long-term (figures 4 and 5), although, 7. a model to predict drought-induced mortality in woody plants 131 on average, it tended to underestimate them. as the original ranges of 7 of the 8 studied parameters were identical, the parameter sets containing only the behavioural simulations allowed us to explore the differences between the two species predicted by the model. substantial differences appeared only for the same three parameters to which the model showed sensitivity during the calibration process: root depth (lr) minimum stomatal conductivity (g min), and the parameter (f) that relates stomatal conductivity to soil water potential (figure 3). the model predicted higher minimum stomatal conductivities, and parameters f in p. latifolia thus, although the stomata of p. latifolia were more sensitive to soil moisture content, they retained a higher conductivity (in relation to the maximum) under extremely dry conditions. this prediction of the model is in agreement with the literature (tretiach 1993), with the results in chapter 6, and with the instantaneous measurements of transpiration rates carried out in the study area (r. ogaya et al. unpublished results). regarding the third prediction, that of higher rooting depths also in p. latifolia there is no conclusive data from the study area.
What is the purpose of climate change mitigation?
to slow or not to slow
why the climate change avoid in several decades?
climate change could be avoided several decades into the future, the model dynamics were unsatisfactory - the economy was assumed to be in a so-called 'resource steady state', in which all physical flows are constant
what was the core refer to?
the core was a ramsey - cass - koopmans model of economic growth, allowing evaluation not only of the optimal steady state but also of the optimal transition path
while it was very much the purpose of 'to slow or not to slow' to cast climate-change mitigation as a dynamic, investment problem, in which abatement costs could be paid up front, so that climate change could be avoided several decades into the future, the model dynamics were unsatisfactory - the economy was assumed to be in a so-called 'resource steady state', in which all physical flows are constant. therefore, we were asked to consider the setting as being the middle of the twenty-first century, when such conditions might plausibly hold (we can now see that this is highly unlikely). optimal emissions abatement was calculated by evaluating a marginal change to the steady-state level (and thus the optimal cuts mentioned above were in the steady state). time was still relevant though, because, while the change in abatement costs was instantaneous, the change in damage costs would be experienced only after a delay (equations 7 - 9, p. 926). nordhaus himself was well aware of the shortcomings and indeed a preliminary version of a more fully dynamic model had already been presented at a workshop by the time 'to slow or not to slow' had been published. this new model was called dice (for a 'dynamic integrated climate-economy' model) (nordhaus, 1992, 1993 a b 1994). many elements of 'to slow or not to slow' could still be found in the original dice model, including the equation of motion of the atmospheric stock of co2, log utility and reduced-form abatement and damage costs. but at the core was a ramsey - cass - koopmans model of economic growth, allowing evaluation not only of the optimal steady state but also of the optimal transition path. the social welfare function
Why is the diurnal cycle of precipitation for all days to be dominated by the timing of convection?
we expect the diurnal cycle of precipitation for all days to be dominated by the timing of convection. this is because the occurrence of frontal precipitation does not depend on the time of day. thus, the inclusion of frontal precipitation will weaken the diurnal cycle but is not expected to shift the timing of the peak
What will happen on days with a high convective fraction?
on days with a high convective fraction (cf 0.7), the 1.5-km rcm again shows a weaker diurnal cycle compared to the 12-km rcm, with the peak shifted later into the afternoon
What does a delay in the 1.5-km RCM represent?
in particular, in the 1.5-km rcm there is a delay in the onset of convection and a slower decay of convection in the afternoon. this represents a considerable improvement, with the tendency for coarser resolution nwp and climate models to develop convection too early in the day being a well-known problem (lean et al. 2008; stratton and stirling 2012
the diurnal cycle of rainfall across the southern united kingdom, in the 1.5-km and 12-km rcms, is shown in fig. 8. in particular, we show the diurnal cycle of precipitation for all days, allowing a comparison between the models and radar, and also on days of high convective fraction (cf 0.7) for the models only. again we use the 12-km rcm's diagnosis of convective versus large-scale rain to calculate cf. we expect the diurnal cycle of precipitation for all days to be dominated by the timing of convection. this is because the occurrence of frontal precipitation does not depend on the time of day. thus, the inclusion of frontal precipitation will weaken the diurnal cycle but is not expected to shift the timing of the peak. even when considering all days, the 12-km rcm shows a pronounced midday peak. the 1.5-km rcm, by contrast, shows a much weaker diurnal cycle with a midafternoon peak, which appears to be in much better agreement with the radar. we note that this behavior is consistent for both model periods considered. on days with a high convective fraction (cf 0.7), the 1.5-km rcm again shows a weaker diurnal cycle compared to the 12-km rcm, with the peak shifted later into the afternoon. in particular, in the 1.5-km rcm there is a delay in the onset of convection and a slower decay of convection in the afternoon. this represents a considerable improvement, with the tendency for coarser resolution nwp and climate models to develop convection too early in the day being a well-known problem (lean et al. 2008; stratton and stirling 2012).
Which species for which confidence in the climate as the primary driving mechanism are low?
species for which confidence in climate as the primary driving mechanism is low are those for which long-term observational records exist, but not detailed empirical research on target species or on ecologically similar species
What does this biological detail reveal?
this sort of biological detail reveals that climate and extreme weather events are mechanistically linked to body size, individual fitness and population dynamics for diverse species3-9(but not for all
this sort of biological detail reveals that climate and extreme weather events are mechanistically linked to body size, individual fitness and population dynamics for diverse species3-9(but not for all). species for which confidence in climate as the primary driving mechanism is low are those for which long-term observational records exist, but not detailed empirical research on target species or on ecologically similar species. the black line in fig. 1 suggests that medium confidence can be claimed for n 0/ n  1/4  0.16 if 0.35 p 0.7. other contingencies, such as complications from a positive publishing bias or non-independence among confounding factors, can be considered through variations of the model (see supplementary information).
What coutries does this passage refer to?
canada, and australia
In recent years, what studies have emerged?
in recent years, studies into individual understandings of climate change have emerged using other methodologies and focusing on specific audiences, yet the fine-scaled insights from these studies have not yet been reviewed and synthesized
What is there an unavoidable tension between?
 we recognize that there is an inherent and unavoidable tension between our dual attempt to synthesize the insights gained from this body of work--inherently a matter of generalization--and to illustrate the detailed insights that can be gleaned from it
canada, and australia. this literature helps to recognize widespread patterns of opinions, attitudes, levels of understanding, and concern among different publics. in instances where such surveys have been taken repeatedly over time, we also have some understanding of long-term trends in these indicators, as public communication of climate change has made information available and shaped these opinions and beliefs.1,2in recent years, studies into individual understandings of climate change have emerged using other methodologies and focusing on specific audiences, yet the fine-scaled insights from these studies have not yet been reviewed and synthesized. it is the primary goal of this paper to fill this gap. in synthesizing existing insights about individuals' role in climate change, we distinguish between understanding (acquiring and employing factually correct knowledge of climate change), perception (views and interpretations based on beliefs and understanding), and engagement (a state of personal connection that encompasses cognitive, affective, and/or behavioral dimensions, see below). we recognize that there is an inherent and unavoidable tension between our dual attempt to synthesize the insights gained from this body of work--inherently a matter of generalization--and to illustrate the detailed insights that can be gleaned from it. we try to balance generalization and detail through overarching findings and examples in the text, but also a table listing a subset of studies and much longer, detailed supporting information with the specific insights from the pertinent studies cited in this article.a
Can nutrient cycles be affected by rivers?
supporting services, such as nutrient cycles, will be affected by changes in river flows and increased stratification
How does economic activity in coastal areas affect ecosystems?
many of past interventions in coastal problems, however, have led precisely to the situation we find ourselves in at present: increasing human concentration and lucrative economic activity in coastal areas, albeit at the expense of extensive ecosystem loss and degradation
How close are we to a perfect solution?
at the same time, it will be impossible--as with all wicked problems in dynamic environments--to wait for perfect, fully thought-out solutions
ecosystem services will change and often become further diminished (7). provisioning services, such as the production of seafood, will face shifts in species composition, food chains, and productivity as well as diminution of critical habitats, such as coral reefs, mangroves, and coastal marshes. regulating services, for example, the control of climate, will be influenced by changes in the pressure gradients between land and ocean that moderate regional climate, and by the ability of wetlands and other coastal ecosystems to sequester carbon. supporting services, such as nutrient cycles, will be affected by changes in river flows and increased stratification. cultural, spiritual, and recreational benefits will be affected by shoreline retreat and loss of historical coastal landscapes and habitats. however, a lack of understanding of the connections between ecosystem services and human well-being inhibits clear quantification and conclusions (136). this unsettling picture is not a future that should be fatalistically accepted. rather, humans have always and will continue to adapt and change their behavior, modify, and-- where possible--minimize coastal risks. the concentration of wealth and brain power in coastal areas may well assist in finding adaptive solutions to climate change. many of past interventions in coastal problems, however, have led precisely to the situation we find ourselves in at present: increasing human concentration and lucrative economic activity in coastal areas, albeit at the expense of extensive ecosystem loss and degradation. an added challenge at present is that global population is above seven billion and continuing to grow, with many migrating to vulnerable coastal areas. to address the wicked challenges that coastal areas will face under global climate change, a more integrated, forward-looking, and comprehensive management of coastal risks is necessary if coastal occupancy and sustainable coastal resource use are to be achieved. at the same time, it will be impossible--as with all wicked problems in dynamic environments--to wait for perfect, fully thought-out solutions. instead, a deliberately learning-oriented, adaptive governance approach that supports iteration and works with temporary best solutions is needed as management interventions are determined.
How can one minimize mortality rates in a natural disaster?
preparedness of health services for natural disasters aims at minimizing mortality and reducing morbidity
When did they start preparing for the March/April 2000 floods?
mozambique, for example, health sector preparedness for the february/march 2000 floods started in november 1999, when warnings of impending flood risk began to be issued (christie and hanlon, 2001
What three things did the Ministery of Health oversee hospitals were stocked with?
the ministry of health oversaw efforts to prepare cholera treatment plans at provincial level and to ensure health posts were adequately stocked with routine medicine supplies, and issued extra stocks of malaria medicines and rehydration fluids
emergency planning and needs assessment well planned emergency procedures for health systems, designed and put in place well in advance of hazard events, provide the foundation for effective health care during and after flooding. preparedness of health services for natural disasters aims at minimizing mortality and reducing morbidity. in mozambique, for example, health sector preparedness for the february/march 2000 floods started in november 1999, when warnings of impending flood risk began to be issued (christie and hanlon, 2001). the ministry of health oversaw efforts to prepare cholera treatment plans at provincial level and to ensure health posts were adequately stocked with routine medicine supplies, and issued extra stocks of malaria medicines and rehydration fluids. the mozambique red cross also distributed medicine kits in late 1999. preparedness can, however, be taken still further in advance - well before the advent of flood crises - and can be more comprehensive in approach. according to quayle (1995), systematic disaster preparedness plans for health facilities form the best defence in any emergency. a well-crafted plan consists of information and guidelines on availability of
If the program is successful, what could investor countries or governments do?
provided the program is successful, investorcountry governments or companies could then elect to buy the actual credits at a guaranteed strike price
What is an existing mechanism used to minimize overselling?
in any event, overselling would have to be minimized, perhaps through a mechanism similar to the one already established under the kp for annex-i countries (unfccc 2002a
Without the possibility of penalties, what may occur to countries?
without penalties, there is still the risk that a country might move so far above the target that it may become unrealistic to still reach the target ("run-away non compliance") so that there is no incentive to even start reducing emissions
the proposal as currently drafted assumes sale of credits after the emission reduction has been achieved. while this leads to maximum "environmental integrity" because only emission reductions that have already been verifi ed are sold, it might bring about problems in practice. national programs to address deforestation might prove quite costly, and up-front fi nancing might be essential. therefore, it is proposed that the host government could sell options to the carbon credits at a fi xed price, with revenues being used for program implementation. provided the program is successful, investorcountry governments or companies could then elect to buy the actual credits at a guaranteed strike price. in order to reduce the risk of promising emission reductions that may then not materialize, the host country could limit the sale of options to a certain fraction of the emission savings that the program is expected to achieve. revenues from the actual sale of credits could then be dedicated to further emission reduction. a "revolving fund" would thereby be established and would help to solve the "chicken and egg" problem. the guaranteed price of exercising the option would also pose a "price cap" for the investor government for credits to be acquired under the kp. a price cap, in the context of deforestation avoidance, has also been proposed by schlamadinger et al (2001). the option price could be seen as an "insurance premium" for governments and companies against possible non-compliance. another alternative to ex-post crediting after the end of the commitment period would be to allow the host country to sell credits immediately after the monitoring of deforestation has been completed for the fi rst year of a commitment period. it would be up to the host country to determine whether the reduced deforestation is the outcome of successful implementation of policies and measures, or is an outlier due to inter-annual variability in the deforestation rate. in any event, overselling would have to be minimized, perhaps through a mechanism similar to the one already established under the kp for annex-i countries (unfccc 2002a). particular attention will have to be paid to the setting of the level against which future emissions are assessed. if targets are too weak, e.g. by grandfathering high emissions levels from the past, then lots of credits could be generated without necessarily having reduced deforestation against a business-as-usual case. if, on the other hand, targets are very ambitious, then it might happen that they cannot be reached by the country, which leads to the next question: should non-achievement of targets lead to penalties? this could deter many countries from participating in the system. without penalties, there is still the risk that a country might move so far above the target that it may become unrealistic to still reach the target ("run-away non compliance") so that there is no incentive to even start reducing emissions. as a solution to these issues, it is proposed here to defi ne a band within which a country's emissions are most likely to be in the target period. the lower bound would be the threshold below which the country could claim a full credit for each incremental ton reduced. the upper bound would be set so high that the possibility of emissions exceeding that amount is minimal. in order to minimize the problem of scale and "anyway tons", credits for emissions below the upper bound would be heavily discounted, with the discount rate decreasing as emissions levels are closer to
What is the fundamental problem of trade, according to the article?
a further fundamental problem of emissions trading is its tendency to perpetuate and aggravate environmental injustice
How many greenhouse gases have side effects from toxic co-pollutants?
the six greenhouse gases due to be traded all have toxic co-pollutant side effects
Where are polluting industries generally located?
this aggravates other dimensions of social injustice inasmuch as polluting industries are disproportionately located in lowincome areas and communities of color
a further fundamental problem of emissions trading is its tendency to perpetuate and aggravate environmental injustice. the six greenhouse gases due to be traded all have toxic co-pollutant side effects.27this aggravates other dimensions of social injustice inasmuch as polluting industries are disproportionately located in lowincome areas and communities of color. in the case of a sulphur dioxide trading scheme in los angeles, reclaim, where localized pollution of the local latino communities around factories involved in the scheme continued unabated.28it is likely that this phenomenon will be widely replicated with global greenhouse gas trading. reductions will not need to take place at their source, allowing factories to continue polluting locally. and the communities affected are those with the least power to resist; "pollution ghettoes" are thereby created, bringing the seemingly nature of the market into deadly focus.29
What is the large trends-related reason that makes stability in the model system an important design objective?
the stability in the model system is an important design objective for two reasons. first, the absence of large trends is a necessary but not sufficient test of the conservation of energy, mass, and total water content of each of the components
Why are drift-free simulations required for some of the more demanding applications of the model?
second, drift-free simulations are required for some of the more demanding applications of the model, including simulations of the carbon cycle that require millennia to attain equilibrium
The exchange of radiant energy is the difference between what two things?
the exchange of radiant energy is the difference between the net shortwave radiation absorbed by the system and the net longwave radiation emitted by the system
ccsm3 has been designed to provide stable simulations relatively free of secular trends under fixed boundary conditions. the stability in the model system is an important design objective for two reasons. first, the absence of large trends is a necessary but not sufficient test of the conservation of energy, mass, and total water content of each of the components. second, drift-free simulations are required for some of the more demanding applications of the model, including simulations of the carbon cycle that require millennia to attain equilibrium. the stability can be addressed by examining the energy budget and other properties 18 of an integration for present-day conditions during years 100 to 600 (appendix a). in order for the climate system to be in equilibrium, the exchange of radiative energy across the top of the atmospheric model (tom) must be zero. during the initial stages of a climate model integration, it is usually very difficult to achieve a precise time-mean energy balance, and instead the system gains or loses a small amount of energy during each annual cycle. the exchange of radiant energy is the difference between the net shortwave radiation absorbed by the system and the net longwave radiation emitted by the system. for ccsm3, the annual-mean and rms tom energy balance is \\x1b \\x10\\x13\\x12 \\x0f \\x16! \\x10\\x1a\\x12#" wm
What are the  key factors that contribute to epi demics of forest insects and pathogens?
climate and weather
What will affect these organisms by directly altering their physiology, development, and reproduction, and by altering the health and vigor of their hosts?
climate change
What will probably enhance abiotic stress in many areas, and plant stress often precedes pathogen and insect epidemics?
climate change
climate and weather are key factors that contribute to epi demics of forest insects and pathogens. climate change will affect these organisms by directly altering their physiology, development, and reproduction, and by altering the health and vigor of their hosts. climate change will probably enhance abiotic stress in many areas, and plant stress often precedes pathogen and insect epidemics raffa and berryman, 1983 raffa et al., 2008; kliejunas et ai., 2009 ). the general importance of temperature and moisture as predictors of plant disease was emphasized in a recent review de wolf and isard, 2007 ). increased climatic stress and changes in the popula tion dynamics of insects and disease has the potential to reduce tree and stand growth, increase damage and mortality, and change the composition and structure of some forest ecosystems (table 1 ). bark beetles in the subfamily
Describe Climate change challenges farmers?
climate change challenges farmers ' decisions by altering risks and uncertainty and incorporating new information into their traditional knowledge-processing systems
On what unfolding of the decision-making depends?
the unfolding of the decision-making process and its translation into action depends on the socioecological context in which farmers are embedded
What is the major question in climate related behaviour?
how well innovation models apply to all climate-related behaviours is a major question, especially given that governance regimes at the national and international levels strongly influence farmers ' actions [133
climate change challenges farmers ' decisions by altering risks and uncertainty and incorporating new information into their traditional knowledge-processing systems. the unfolding of the decision-making process and its translation into action depends on the socioecological context in which farmers are embedded. how well innovation models apply to all climate-related behaviours is a major question, especially given that governance regimes at the national and international levels strongly influence farmers ' actions [133]. the massive literature on innovation systems has established the basic hypothesis that farmers evaluate the costs and benefits of different practices in light of information accessed through social networks and other communication channels. the diffusion of innovation model can provide critical insights into adoption decisions. in this model, adoption of innovations follows a sequence of stages: knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation and confirmation [134]. innovations generated by agricultural research are communicated by extension agents to farmers. this approach may place too much emphasis on traditional socioeconomic variables and ignore how other social factors (for example, networks, gender, social norms, values, climate-change attitudes), and uncertainty may be
What did Oxfam add, besides the World Bank numbers?
oxfam (2007) adopted the world bank numbers but added additional cost items, such as the extra cost of ngo work at community level and the cost of implementing a napa-style programme
Are the cost numbers based on real facts?
both cost items are based on fairly strong assumptions
What were the study's estimates?
the studies resulted in a large range in estimates, with the lowest number at $4 billion and the highest one at over $100 billion
oxfam (2007) adopted the world bank numbers but added additional cost items, such as the extra cost of ngo work at community level and the cost of implementing a napa-style programme. both cost items are based on fairly strong assumptions. the costs of community-level adaptation were extrapolated from just three projects, while the cost of early adaptation was derived from the 13 napas available at the time. the 2007 human development report (hdr) (undp, 2007) again adopted the world bank approach to costing infrastructure adaptation. the hdr used later, considerably higher investment data and a different share for climate-sensitive oda (17-33%) but otherwise adopted the stern assumptions. in addition, it included the costs of adapting poverty reduction strategies ($44 billion a year) and strengthening disaster response systems ($2 billion a year). although based on a common method, the studies resulted in a large range in estimates, with the lowest number at $4 billion and the highest one at over $100 billion. this indicates a fundamental problem with this estimation approach. there is little empirical information about the share of climate-sensitive investments and the mark-ups required to 'climate-proof' them, which are likely to be situation-specific. yet, because investment flows are so large, even small changes in this uncertain parameter can change results by up to an order of magnitude.
The invasion of the experimental communities was recorded how many times a year?
invasibility of the experimental communities was recorded three times per year
Invasive plant individuals were collected from where?
invading plant individuals were collected from the inner square metre of each plot and subsequently separated by species
The removal occurred only after what?
removal took place only after the first true leaves (after the cotyledons) emerged
invasibility of the experimental communities was recorded three times per year: before and after the drought manipulations in early summer, and in fall (kreyling et al. 2008c). invading plant individuals were collected from the inner square metre of each plot and subsequently separated by species. removal took place only after the first true leaves (after the cotyledons) emerged, but most specimens were considerably older than this and clearly established in the stand. at this point in development, we expected that number of individuals give a measure of established invaders rather than chance germinations. for each plot, the number of individuals was determined. the planted target species of the experiment were removed from the subsequent analysis. tests confirmed that germination from the soil seed bank was negligible after 1 year. thus, invasibility was only based on species invading from the matrix vegetation.
What is a hierarchical structure?
students nested within schools and community centers
What is the dependent variable of this study?
t2 bullying perpetration
What is the issue or concern with the study's dependent variable?
the overwhelming majority of the variance in the dependent variable of this study, t2 bullying perpetration, was within, not between schools
the data had a hierarchical structure (students nested within schools and community centers). however, ordinary least squares (ols) regression was used to estimate the effects of individual perceptions of self-esteem, normative beliefs about bullying, and school climate on bullying perpetration instead of hierarchical linear modeling (hlm) for two reasons. first, the measures represented students' perceptions and thus were characteristics of individual youth. second, the overwhelming majority of the variance in the dependent variable of this study, t2 bullying perpetration, was within, not between schools, thus justifying an individual, not a multilevel analysis. only nine community centers were included in the project, and student participants in these centers represented only about two percent n 141) of the total student sample. given their small representation, empirical results including or excluding these cases were virtually identical. additionally, no statistically significant differences by rural or urban location were found when this dichotomous variable was included in the analyses; therefore, it was excluded from the results reported below.
Paraphrase Denison's assertion of culture.
denison (1996) asserted that culture is "the deep structure of organizations, which is rooted in the values, beliefs and assumptions held by organizational members" (p. 654
According to Beugelsdijk, Koen, and Noorderhaven (2006), what is organizational culture?
according to beugelsdijk, koen, and noorderhaven (2006), organizational culture is specific to an organization (smircich, 1983), is relatively constant (christensen gordon, 1999), and can influence interorganizational relations
How is organized culture widely viewed?
for these reasons, organizational culture is widely viewed as a source of sustained competitive advantage to businesses (miron, erez, naheh, 2004
denison (1996) asserted that culture is "the deep structure of organizations, which is rooted in the values, beliefs and assumptions held by organizational members" (p. 654). that is, when we speak of organizational culture, we refer to the meanings inherent in the actions, procedures, and protocols of organizational commerce and discourse. james et al. (2007) described culture as "the normative beliefs (i.e., system values) and shared behavioural expectations (i.e., system norms) in an organization" (p. 21). following moran and volkwein (1992) and glisson and james (2002), we view organizational culture and climate as distinct but interrelated constructs. according to beugelsdijk, koen, and noorderhaven (2006), organizational culture is specific to an organization (smircich, 1983), is relatively constant (christensen gordon, 1999), and can influence interorganizational relations. for these reasons, organizational culture is widely viewed as a source of sustained competitive advantage to businesses (miron, erez, naheh, 2004). whereas organizational culture focuses on the shared behavioral expectations and normative beliefs in work units, climate describes the way individuals perceive the personal impact of their work environment on themselves (glisson james, 2002, p. 788). james et al. (2007, p. 20) differentiate organizational from psychological climate. whereas the former is an aggregation of individual perceptions of the work environment, the latter refers to the perceptions individuals have of those workplaces as they reflect personal values and psychological desires. in
How terrestrial biotic change occure?
fig. 5. patterns of terrestrial biotic change through the petm. a temporal sequence of changes in mammal and plant assemblages, shown relative to the palaeosol carbonate d13c curve for polecat bench
Which migrants use Spatial pathways of migration thoughts?
spatial pathways of migration thought to have been used by petm intraand intercontinental migrants
fig. 5. patterns of terrestrial biotic change through the petm. a temporal sequence of changes in mammal and plant assemblages, shown relative to the palaeosol carbonate d13c curve for polecat bench, wyoming, usa (carbon isotope values are shown here as anomalies dd13c) relative to the average latest palaeocene values; after bowen et al. (2006). b spatial pathways of migration thought to have been used by petm intraand intercontinental migrants. 1, directional exchange of mammals and turtles from asia to north america and or europe. 2, northward range expansion of thermophilic plants from southern north america. 3, exchange of plant and mammal taxa between north america and europe, including immigration of plant taxon to north america and homogenization of mammal faunas, including new petm immigrants. a. sluijs et al. 336
What are the regulations of greenhouse gas emissions?
with the u.s. environmental protection agency's recent historic step toward regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, cost-benefit analyses of proposed american regulations can now include an estimate of damages caused by greenhouse gas emissions - or conversely, the benefits of reducing those emissions. it is, however, a very small step: the "social cost of carbon" (scc), i.e. the damage per metric ton of carbon dioxide (tco2), is estimated at $21 for 2010, in 2007 dollars (interagency working group 2010). equivalent to $0.21 per gallon of gasoline,1 such a low cost seems to suggest that only modest, inexpensive measures are needed to address climate risks
What are the analysis by the federal Interagency Working Group?
the analysis by the federal interagency working group is significant for its role in setting u.s. climate policy, and for its recognition that policy should be based on global, rather than domestic, impacts (unlike most national environmental policies). it is also noteworthy as a rare instance where economic theories and analyses have been newly introduced into the public policy debate
What are the examination and re-analysis of the SCC?
thus it is important to examine the uses of climate economics in the working group analysis, particularly the treatment of the crucial uncertainties that characterize the field. this paper presents an examination and re-analysis of the scc, finding that four major uncertainties in the economics of climate change could imply much larger estimates. in each case, the working group has chosen the option that minimizes estimates of climate risks and damages. we begin with a discussion of the choice of models and scenarios for the scc calculation. our re-analysis relies on the dynamic integrated model of climate
with the u.s. environmental protection agency's recent historic step toward regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, cost-benefit analyses of proposed american regulations can now include an estimate of damages caused by greenhouse gas emissions - or conversely, the benefits of reducing those emissions. it is, however, a very small step: the "social cost of carbon" (scc), i.e. the damage per metric ton of carbon dioxide (tco2), is estimated at $21 for 2010, in 2007 dollars (interagency working group 2010). equivalent to $0.21 per gallon of gasoline,1 such a low cost seems to suggest that only modest, inexpensive measures are needed to address climate risks.2 the analysis by the federal interagency working group is significant for its role in setting u.s. climate policy, and for its recognition that policy should be based on global, rather than domestic, impacts (unlike most national environmental policies). it is also noteworthy as a rare instance where economic theories and analyses have been newly introduced into the public policy debate.3 thus it is important to examine the uses of climate economics in the working group analysis, particularly the treatment of the crucial uncertainties that characterize the field. this paper presents an examination and re-analysis of the scc, finding that four major uncertainties in the economics of climate change could imply much larger estimates. in each case, the working group has chosen the option that minimizes estimates of climate risks and damages. we begin with a discussion of the choice of models and scenarios for the scc calculation. our re-analysis relies on the dynamic integrated model of climate _________________________
In the framework of the ODA, what is clearly defined as a priority?
in the framework of oda, the clearly defined priority is on poverty
What should be done to avoid obfuscation?
there should be a separate budget line for such activities to avoid "obfuscation" of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation
What is at odds with the current DAC definition?
it should be ensured that only those climate policy related activities can be oda financed which have a high positive impact on poverty reduction. this is at odds with the current dac definition which defines diversion of oda funds only in the context of cers
we would urge the development community to openly recognize these potential conflicts. the two objectives must be weighted, and priorities must be defined. in the framework of oda, the clearly defined priority is on poverty. it should be ensured that only those climate policy related activities can be oda financed which have a high positive impact on poverty reduction. this is at odds with the current dac definition which defines diversion of oda funds only in the context of cers. while there are valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate budget line for such activities to avoid "obfuscation" of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation.
How is the REA value for each season and decade calculated?
by weighting each model's output by its bias and distance from the all-model average
Where do you find the details on the REA calculation?
see appendix b. in this document, "2020s" denotes the 2010-2039 average, 1980s denotes the 1970-1999 average, and likewise for 2040s and 2080s
What will show better results for the future than an unweighted average by giving more weight to models that perform well in simulating 20th century climate?
the rea
in addition to presenting the range of model output and the all-model average, we also present a new, weighted average, following the reliability ensemble averaging "rea" (giorgi and mearns, 2002) approach. in this approach, the rea value for each season and decade is calculated by weighting each model's output by its bias and distance from the all-model average. multi-model averages in weather forecasting, seasonal forecasting, and climate simulations often come closer to observations than single models (see figure 3a above), and rea should produce better results for the future than an unweighted average by giving more weight to models that perform well in simulating 20th century climate. for details on the rea calculation, see appendix b. in this document, "2020s" denotes the 2010-2039 average, 1980s denotes the 1970-1999 average, and likewise for 2040s and 2080s.
Who warrant particular attention when considering climate change?
when considering climate change, indigenous peoples and marginalized populations warrant particular attention
Why does climate change pose a direct threat to many indigenous societies?
indeed, climate change poses a direct threat to many indigenous societies due to their continuing reliance upon resource-based livelihoods
How has been Indigenous knowledge acknowledged in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change?
indigenous knowledge was acknowledged in the fourth assessment report (ar4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) as 'an invaluable basis for developing adaptation and natural resource management strategies in response to environmental and other forms of change' (ipcc, 2007
when considering climate change, indigenous peoples and marginalized populations warrant particular attention. impacts on their territories and communities are anticipated to be both early and severe due to their location in vulnerable environments, including small islands, high-altitude zones, desert margins and the circumpolar arctic. indeed, climate change poses a direct threat to many indigenous societies due to their continuing reliance upon resource-based livelihoods. heightened exposure to negative impacts, however, is not the only reason for specific attention and concern. as many indigenous societies are socially and culturally distinct from mainstream society, decisions, policies and actions undertaken by the majority, even if well-intended, may prove inadequate, ill-adapted, and even inappropriate. there is therefore a need to understand the specific vulnerabilities, concerns, adaptation capacities and longer-term aspirations of indigenous peoples and marginalized communities throughout the world. indigenous and traditional knowledge contribute to this broader understanding. indigenous and rural peoples, however, are not only potential victims of global climate change. attentiveness to environmental variability, shifts and trends is an integral part of their ways of life. community-based and local knowledge may offer valuable insights into environmental change due to climate change, and complement broader-scale scientific research with local precision and nuance. indigenous societies have elaborated coping strategies to deal with unstable environments, and in some cases, are already actively adapting to early climate change impacts. while the transformations due to climate change are expected to be unprecedented, indigenous knowledge and coping strategies provide a crucial foundation for community-based adaptation measures. indigenous knowledge was acknowledged in the fourth assessment report (ar4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) as 'an invaluable basis for developing adaptation and natural resource management strategies in response to environmental and other forms of change' (ipcc, 2007). this recognition was reaffirmed at ipcc's 32nd session (ipcc, 2010a) and consideration of traditional and indigenous knowledge was included as a guiding principle for the cancun adaptation framework (caf) that was adopted by parties at the 2010 united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) conference in cancun (unfccc, 2010). the outline of the ipcc's working group ii contribution to the fifth assessment report (ar5) includes local and traditional knowledge as a distinct topic within chapter 12 on human security. 7
What is used to explore the individual effects of Canada's climate?
department of physics, university of toronto, toronto, ontario, canada (manuscript received 18 december 2009, in final form 1 april 2010) a version of the canadian middle atmosphere model that is coupled to an ocean is used to investigate the separate effects of climate change and ozone depletion on the dynamics of the southern hemisphere (sh) stratosphere
Describe the properties of GHGs and ODS?
1) greenhouse gases (ghgs) fixed at 1960 levels and ozone depleting substances (odss) varying in time, 2) odss fixed at 1960 levels and ghgs varying in time, and 3) both ghgs and odss varying in time. the response of various dynamical quantities to the ghg and ods forcings is shown to be additive; that is, trends computed from the sum of the first two simulations are equal to trends from the third. additivity is shown to hold for the zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, the mass flux into and out of the stratosphere, and the latitudinally averaged wave drag in sh spring and summer, as well as for final warming dates
What changes does ozone depletion and recovery make?
ozone depletion and recovery causes seasonal changes in lower-stratosphere mass flux, with reduced polar downwelling in the past followed by increased downwelling in the future in sh spring, and the reverse in sh summer. these seasonal changes are attributed to changes in wave drag caused by ozone-induced changes in the zonal mean zonal winds. climate change, on the other hand, causes a steady decrease in wave drag during sh spring, which delays the breakdown of the vortex, resulting in increased wave drag in summer
department of physics, university of toronto, toronto, ontario, canada (manuscript received 18 december 2009, in final form 1 april 2010) a version of the canadian middle atmosphere model that is coupled to an ocean is used to investigate the separate effects of climate change and ozone depletion on the dynamics of the southern hemisphere (sh) stratosphere. this is achieved by performing three sets of simulations extending from 1960 to 2099: 1) greenhouse gases (ghgs) fixed at 1960 levels and ozone depleting substances (odss) varying in time, 2) odss fixed at 1960 levels and ghgs varying in time, and 3) both ghgs and odss varying in time. the response of various dynamical quantities to the ghg and ods forcings is shown to be additive; that is, trends computed from the sum of the first two simulations are equal to trends from the third. additivity is shown to hold for the zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, the mass flux into and out of the stratosphere, and the latitudinally averaged wave drag in sh spring and summer, as well as for final warming dates. ozone depletion and recovery causes seasonal changes in lower-stratosphere mass flux, with reduced polar downwelling in the past followed by increased downwelling in the future in sh spring, and the reverse in sh summer. these seasonal changes are attributed to changes in wave drag caused by ozone-induced changes in the zonal mean zonal winds. climate change, on the other hand, causes a steady decrease in wave drag during sh spring, which delays the breakdown of the vortex, resulting in increased wave drag in summer.
In what years did the annual totals and frequency of very heavy annual and summer precipitation events occur during the 1951-2002 period?
all increases have occurred in the past 25 yr
At what level were all linear trends statistically significant?
all linear trends (shown by solid lines) are statistically significant at the 0.01 level or above
What are the average regional upper 0.3% thresholds for the summer and the year?
the average regional upper 0.3% thresholds are 50 and 45 mm for summer and year, respectively
fig. 4. (a) data availability at the 88 stations over fennoscandia generalized within the 1o  1o grid cells, (b) annual totals, and (c) frequency of very heavy annual (squares) and summer (triangles) precipitation events during the 1951-2002 period. all linear trends (shown by solid lines) are statistically significant at the 0.01 level or above. all increases have occurred in the past 25 yr. the average regional upper 0.3% thresholds are 50 and 45 mm for summer and year, respectively. fig. 5. heavy and very heavy annual precipitation variations and linear trends along the northwestern coast of north america (a) british columbia south of 55degn and (b) alaska south of 62degn. statistical significance of linear trends is provided in table 6.
What was "Global Warming, Local Alert in 2003?
in 2003, a working group 'global warming - local warning' was created on the initiative of british cities and the european commission and is coordinated by eurocities; * in 2005, the climate alliance of european cities initiate the 'amica' project to campaign for a combination of mitigation and adaptation and for an integrated methodology to address both; 
What was the strategic plan on adaptation in 2006?
in 2006, the iclei added the topic of adaptation to its strategic plan. in most cases, cities seek to adapt to current climate variability. in doing this they are at least increasing awareness and preparedness which is expected to be helpful in the management of
transnational networks in the area of climate change, which concentrated on mitigation for a long time, began to extend their interest to adaptation around five years ago: * in 2003, a working group 'global warming - local warning' was created on the initiative of british cities and the european commission and is coordinated by eurocities; * in 2005, the climate alliance of european cities initiate the 'amica' project to campaign for a combination of mitigation and adaptation and for an integrated methodology to address both; * in 2006, the iclei added the topic of adaptation to its strategic plan. in most cases, cities seek to adapt to current climate variability. in doing this they are at least increasing awareness and preparedness which is expected to be helpful in the management of
What is one major problem with the applications of biological control for plant disease management?
major problems with applications of biological control for plant disease management in the field has been the vulnerability of biocontrol agent populations to environmental variation and environmental extreme
What are the climate variables when introducing invasive pathogens to a new area?
invasive pathogens to a new area are typically based on climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity
What two things are important to have consistently available?
temperature and moisture are not consistently available, biocontrol agent populations may reach densities that are too small to have important effects
disease management strategies may require adjustment under climate change. strategies such as delaying planting to avoid a pathogen may become less reliable. and one of the major problems with applications of biological control for plant disease management in the field has been the vulnerability of biocontrol agent populations to environmental variation and environmental extremes (59, 147). if appropriate temperature and moisture are not consistently available, biocontrol agent populations may reach densities that are too small to have important effects, and may not recover as rapidly as pathogen populations when conducive conditions recur (57, 61). models of the risk of movement of invasive pathogens to a new area are typically based on climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity (133). such risk models are of great economic importance when they bear on what trade restrictions may be applied against regions where a pathogen such as tilletia indica causal agent of karnal bunt, is present. for many invasive pathogens, models of climatic conditions and requirements need to be supplemented by information about
Why the climate conditions vary in mountains?
in the mountains, climatic conditions vary more sharply with elevation and over shorter distances than they do with latitude
Explain mean temperature with example?
an temperatures, for example, decline about 1oc per 160m of elevation, compared with about 1oc per 150 km by latitude (hartman 1994
How to  predictions global climate change?
the broad predictions of global climate change, especially the emphasis on shifts in mean temperature, do not take into account important regional complexities in the mountains related to the effects of topography and elevation
in the mountains, climatic conditions vary more sharply with elevation and over shorter distances than they do with latitude. mean temperatures, for example, decline about 1oc per 160m of elevation, compared with about 1oc per 150 km by latitude (hartman 1994). hence, the effects of climate change are expected to intensify in mountain areas, and they are considered to be unique areas for detection of climate change and related impacts (beniston 2003). the broad predictions of global climate change, especially the emphasis on shifts in mean temperature, do not take into account important regional complexities in the mountains related to the effects of topography and elevation. if climate change mainly involves vertical shifts in precipitation and thermal conditions, ruggedness, elevation, and orientation will also modify the signi fi cance of regional and local changes. the highest mountains, or those facing or funnelling the prevailing winds, may retain a substantial, if diminished, glacial cover, whereas lower or less favourably oriented watersheds may lose theirs. furthermore, intensi fi cation of the asian monsoon is predicted by most climate models. on a regional scale this could result in increase in precipitation, although local effects are poorly understood. moreover, climate change means not only temperature warming, but also changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil and air moisture, runoff, and river fl ow as well as groundwater through water cycles. climate change is expected to accelerate water cycles and thereby
which is the most important factor that shapes an adptative capacity?
one of the most important factors shaping adaptive capacity is people's access to and control over natural, human, social, physical, political and financial resources
What makes women more difficult to migrate due to changing environments?
gendered roles, as well as cultural prescriptions and prohibitions, make it far more difficult for most women and female-headed households to migrate in response to environmental change
What is the result of people's vulnerability to environmental changes?
people's vulnerability to environmental change reflects a combination of their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. as a result, degree of vulnerability varies widely within countries, communities and even households
people's vulnerability to environmental change reflects a combination of their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. as a result, degree of vulnerability varies widely within countries, communities and even households. for instance, poor people's exposure to the impacts of climate change is often higher than others because economic and political forces confine them to living in high-risk landscapes (e.g. steep hillsides prone to slippage). meanwhile, one of the most important factors shaping adaptive capacity is people's access to and control over natural, human, social, physical, political and financial resources. their striking lack of these things is a major reason why poor people --especially those in marginalised social groups--are much more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than others. women contend with an especially wide array of constraints on their adaptive capacity. gendered roles, as well as cultural prescriptions and prohibitions, make it far more difficult for most women and female-headed households to migrate in response to environmental change.
What is presented in this article?
in this paper we introduced the newly developed kiel climate model (kcm) and described its performance in the tropical pacific and response to global warming
How is this Kiel Climate Model (KCM) different from other generation models?
overall, the model's performance is reasonable, despite not using flux correction, and similar to that of other state-of-the-art global climate models, although we use relatively low resolution
What mistakes does it have?
however, as in most other global climate models, three main systematic errors are of major concern. first, northern midlatitude surface temperature is much too cold; second, the eastern tropical and subtropical oceans are much too warm; and third, the phase locking of enso to the annual cycle is not well captured. the latter indicates, together with the inability of the model to simulate a reasonable skewness of eastern equatorial pacific sst anomalies, that kcm's enso dynamics are too linear
in this paper we introduced the newly developed kiel climate model (kcm) and described its performance in the tropical pacific and response to global warming. overall, the model's performance is reasonable, despite not using flux correction, and similar to that of other state-of-the-art global climate models, although we use relatively low resolution. however, as in most other global climate models, three main systematic errors are of major concern. first, northern midlatitude surface temperature is much too cold; second, the eastern tropical and subtropical oceans are much too warm; and third, the phase locking of enso to the annual cycle is not well captured. the latter indicates, together with the inability of the model to simulate a reasonable skewness of eastern equatorial pacific sst anomalies, that kcm's enso dynamics are too linear. in spite of these deficiencies, the simulation of the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial pacific and enso are quite good, with only small differences to observations. this is encouraging and we hope that kcm will become a useful tool to study climate variability, up to time scales of millennia, and predictability of the first and second kind, and to serve as kernel for the development of an earth system model. much work, however, remains to
According to the passage, what is the problem with not considering calculated wrongdoing?
some writers, such as neumayer (2000, p. 188), hold that the conditional liability approach is implausible in the case of climate change, while others hold that the absence of calculated wrongdoing weakens historical accountability to the point where the emissions of all countries before the late twentieth century should be discounted (caney 2005, pp. 761-762
What would be the limitation of "contribution to problem" reasoning if climate change were caused entirely by nature?
suppose that climate change could be traced entirely to natural climatic variations. in such cases, 'contribution to problem' reasoning could not explain why the victims of climate change should not be abandoned to their fate even if measures could be undertaken by wealthy countries to limit their suffering
What took place in the example that Simon Caney created?
suppose, next, following an example devised by simon caney (caney 2005, p. 763), a developing country was shown to have been a major historical greenhouse emitter of a similar level to the uk. the 'contribution to problem' approach implies that this country should bear a heavy burden, on a par with the uk, to finance climate mitigation and adaptation policies despite its poverty
one reason for this is that the approach splits into two forms depending on whether causal responsibility is sufficient for burden attribution strict liability or whether an extra ingredient needs to be added to generate liability, such as that the original emitter acted knowingly and therefore wrongly conditional liability ). some writers, such as neumayer (2000, p. 188), hold that the conditional liability approach is implausible in the case of climate change, while others hold that the absence of calculated wrongdoing weakens historical accountability to the point where the emissions of all countries before the late twentieth century should be discounted (caney 2005, pp. 761-762). i will not try to resolve this troubling issue, except to say that there are problems with either form that question the power of an exclusively contribution-based approach to climate burden sharing. first, neither form can explain a number of widely held beliefs concerning the limits of responsibility attribution. suppose that climate change could be traced entirely to natural climatic variations. in such cases, 'contribution to problem' reasoning could not explain why the victims of climate change should not be abandoned to their fate even if measures could be undertaken by wealthy countries to limit their suffering. the focus on historical responsibility, that is, clears the way to a 'polluted pays' approach when there are no identifiable polluters. while this conclusion could be finessed by appealing to substantive principles of justice, this would mean abandoning the theoretical parsimony provided by focusing on historical responsibility.3suppose, next, following an example devised by simon caney (caney 2005, p. 763), a developing country was shown to have been a major historical greenhouse emitter of a similar level to the uk. the 'contribution to problem' approach implies that this country should bear a heavy burden, on a par with the uk, to finance climate mitigation and adaptation policies despite its poverty.4
What could pose a problem to health?
hospitals, health centres and related facilities may become severely damaged or functionally disrupted by flood events (menne 1999), affecting access to health care and the quality of care
What is a cornerstone of effective health care provision?
functioning and accessible infrastructure is a cornerstone of effective health care provision for affected populations during flood emergencies
What are some hazards posed to hospitals?
including: physical damage to the health facility and on-site storage facilities; communication and power failures; water shortage and contamination; damage to equipment; and release of hazardous materials
intact, functioning and accessible infrastructure is a cornerstone of effective health care provision for affected populations during flood emergencies. yet that infrastructure itself is often vulnerable to flood hazards. hospitals, health centres and related facilities may become severely damaged or functionally disrupted by flood events (menne 1999), affecting access to health care and the quality of care. any resulting breakdown of services thereby creates a situation of double jeopardy for client populations suffering from the health outcomes of flooding. unless overall planning for health care response takes these risks into account, there is danger that preparedness will be rendered meaningless by floods that prevent the health system from functioning according to plan (paho 2001). damage risks and response milsten (2000) summarizes the common infrastructural problems that may confront hospitals responding to disasters, including: physical damage to the health facility and on-site storage facilities; communication and power failures; water shortage and contamination; damage to equipment; and release of hazardous materials. in some
For the global climate simulations which model was used?
for the global climate simulations the echam5 general circulation model was used
Which two-moment cloud microphysics scheme ECHAM5 includes?
echam5 includes a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme16 coupled to the echam5-ham two-moment aerosol scheme which predicts the aerosol mixing state in addition to the aerosol mass and number concentrations17
In which resolution the simulations were conducted?
the simulations were conducted in t42 horizontal resolution (~2.8o x 2.8o) with 19 vertical layers
global climate model simulations for the global climate simulations the echam5 general circulation model was used. echam5 includes a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme16 coupled to the echam5-ham two-moment aerosol scheme which predicts the aerosol mixing state in addition to the aerosol mass and number concentrations17. the size-distribution is represented by a superposition of log-normal modes including the major global aerosol compounds sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt and mineral dust. in order to avoid changes in meteorology, both the pre-industrial and present-day simulations were nudged to the ecmwf era40 reanalysis data for the year 2000 after an initial spin-up of 3 months17. the aerosol emissions of the pre-industrial simulations are representative of the year 175017. the simulations were conducted in t42 horizontal resolution (~2.8o x 2.8o) with 19 vertical layers.
What is the total number of species on the list for the Southern Ocean benthos?
the total species list for the southern ocean benthos currently exceeds 4100 (clarke johnston 2003
What are an example of a species diverse in numbers?
polychaetes are also diverse, but that is not surprising because they are speciose almost everywhere else as well
What does the data reinforce?
the data do, however, reinforce the conclusion that polychaetes, bryozoans, sponges, pycnogonids, amphipods, and ascidians are well-represented in the southern ocean benthic fauna
the total species list for the southern ocean benthos currently exceeds 4100 (clarke johnston 2003). gutt et al. (2004) estimated that the total macrofaunal diversity of the southern ocean continental shelf could exceed 15,000, meaning that most of the fauna remains undescribed. most noteworthy in terms of high species richness are the pycnogonids and ascidians. polychaetes are also diverse, but that is not surprising because they are speciose almost everywhere else as well. for a number of taxa, low species richness in the southern ocean is not typical of that group in warmer waters; examples include gastropods, bivalves, decapods, and teleosts, all of which are highly speciose in many oceans but poorly represented in the southern ocean. amphipods and isopods are well represented, although they are not particularly diverse. some amphipod and isopod lineages radiated in the southern ocean (brandt 1992, 2000; held 2000; watling thurston 1989). antarctica contains ~ 11% of the world's continental-shelf area. with the caveat that the antarctic shelf is configured differently from continental shelves elsewhere in the world, we can calculate the fraction of the world's continental-shelf fauna found in antarctica for each group figure 1 ). we see that none of the taxa there achieve levels of representation greater than about 15% in the southern ocean, and most are well below. the data do, however, reinforce the conclusion that polychaetes, bryozoans, sponges, pycnogonids, amphipods, and ascidians are well-represented in the southern ocean benthic fauna, whereas gastropods and bivalves in particular are not.
How does the ecosystem change?
ecosystem changes elicited by anthropogenic impacts at local scales as well as by global climate change have opened our eyes to the need for an understanding of the mechanistic background of such changes
What is the climate effects on marine ecosystems?
climate effects on marine ecosystems the underlying thermal physiology plays a key role. therefore, and as recent insight into the mechanisms of thermal adaptation and limitation opens a perspective for a unifying concept in the cause-and-effect understanding of climate change effects on aquatic ectotherms, the influence of temperature on marine organisms will be dealt with first
What is the capacity-limited thermal tolerance provides?
he concept of oxygenand capacity-limited thermal tolerance thus provides access to understanding the physiological mechanisms shaping and limiting performance and integrates those at whole-organism and tissue levels with the underlying biochemical and genomic mechanisms. here, performance capacity largely relates to biochemical mechanisms setting aerobic capacity of cells and tissues in general and specifically to the capacity of ventilatory and circulatory organs to supply sufficient oxygen for covering physiological costs above maintenance
ecosystem changes elicited by anthropogenic impacts at local scales as well as by global climate change have opened our eyes to the need for an understanding of the mechanistic background of such changes. which characters are rendering a species sensitive to climate and which are causing losses in abundance? what is driving species to extinction at local or larger scales? a recent analysis (portner et al., 2010) suggests that a twist in the interpretation of available knowledge is suitable to start identifying the physiological dimensions of the environmental niche in which a species or one of its specific life-stages exist. such dimensions result from the consideration of performance characters in relation to both biotic and abiotic characters. in the context of climate effects on marine ecosystems the underlying thermal physiology plays a key role. therefore, and as recent insight into the mechanisms of thermal adaptation and limitation opens a perspective for a unifying concept in the cause-and-effect understanding of climate change effects on aquatic ectotherms, the influence of temperature on marine organisms will be dealt with first. as a general principle, the concept of oxygenand capacitylimited thermal tolerance explains how aerobic scope is limited by insufficient oxygen supply at both sides of the thermal window and sets the performance window in animals, with an optimum close to the upper pejus temperature (the latin 'pejus' means 'getting worse') (e.g. portner and knust, 2007; portner and farrell, 2008). the resulting temperature-dependent performance curve matches that with a long tradition of use in evolutionary analyses of thermal biology (for review, see angiletta, 2009). the concept of oxygenand capacity-limited thermal tolerance thus provides access to understanding the physiological mechanisms shaping and limiting performance and integrates those at whole-organism and tissue levels with the underlying biochemical and genomic mechanisms. here, performance capacity largely relates to biochemical mechanisms setting aerobic capacity of cells and tissues in general and specifically to the capacity of ventilatory and circulatory organs to supply sufficient oxygen for covering physiological costs above maintenance. this statement builds on repeated findings that thermally limited oxygen supply capacity sets the width and positioning of organismal thermal windows on the temperature scale. thermal limitation results from insufficient capacity reflected in a
How is climate change expected to impact transportation?
climate change is expected to impact transportation primarily through changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme events and water levels
What are the main components of the transportation system in Canada?
the main components of our transportation system are roads, rail, air and water, all of which play important though varying roles across the country
Is transportation an essential element of Canadian economic and social well being?
transportation is an essential element of canadian economic and social well-being
transportation is an essential element of canadian economic and social well-being. the main components of our transportation system are roads, rail, air and water, all of which play important though varying roles across the country. assessing the vulnerability of these components to climate change is a key step toward ensuring a safe and efficient transportation system in the future. climate change is expected to impact transportation primarily through changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme events and water levels (figure 7). the most vulnerable transportation systems include ice roads, great lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure and infrastructure situated on permafrost. impacts would vary regionally, with both challenges and new opportunities expected. in some cases, benefits would have the potential to outweigh future damages, and a warmer climate may translate into savings for those who build, maintain and use canada's transportation infrastructure. in southern regions of the country, an increase in summer temperature would affect the structural integrity of pavement and railway tracks, through increased pavement deterioration and railway buckling. it is expected, however, that losses incurred in southern canada during the summer would be outweighed by benefits projected for the winter. damage to pavement from freeze-thaw events would likely decrease in much of southern canada, and the costs and accidents associated with winter storms are expected to decline. changes in precipitation patterns could also affect transportation infrastructure. future increases in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events would have implications for the design of roads, highways, bridges and culverts with respect to stormwater management, especially in urban areas where roads make up a large proportion of the land surface. accelerated deterioration of transportation infrastructure, such as bridges and parking garages, may occur where precipitation events become more frequent, particularly in areas that experience acid rain. an increase in debris flows, avalanches and floods due to changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation events could also affect transportation systems. although there would be some advantages associated with higher temperatures associated with higher temperatures (e.g., fewer periods of extreme cold would benefit railways), there would also be several new challenges. permafrost degradation, and its effects on the structural integrity of roads, rails and runways, is
Despite its extensive geographic range, C. album was only judged troublesome to maize production in states with what?
black circles
s. This map illustrates that the damage niche for C. album in maize is much narrower than its bioclimatic niche which governs overall what?
geographic range
. The geographic range for C. album includes almost all regions of :
u.s. and canada
fig. 2. the geographic range for c. album includes almost all regions of the u.s. and canada (grey shaded areas of the map). within the u.s., states with maize production that were surveyed for troublesome weed species by bridges (1992) are indicated with circles. despite its extensive geographic range, c. album was only judged troublesome to maize production in states with black circles. this map illustrates that the damage niche for c. album in maize is much narrower than its bioclimatic niche which governs overall geographic range. (distribution map for c. album adopted from usda's plants database, http://plants.usda.gov/ .) a. mcdonald et al. agriculture, ecosystems and environment 130 (2009) 131-140 133
Is optimal development in youth likely improved in a warm and supportive context?
scholars, researchers, and practitioners have advocated for the importance of a warm and supportive context when attempting to foster optimal development in youth
Do the psychometric findings require further study?
while the psychometric findings for the ccs are promising, it is critical that further study is pursued
What provides an appropriate tool for researching the impacts of sports and physical education on youth?
while the ccs can be used to assess the caring climate in various youth activity contexts (i. e., the items are not especific to physical activity), it was developed to provide an appropriate tool for sport psychology researchers to explore to a greater degree the social emotional impact of physical education, physical activity, and sport on youth
these two studies reflect an initial attempt to quantitatively measure the concept of a perceived caring climate in the physical activity domain and test the psychometric properties of the newly developed caring climate scale the findings support the initial validity and reliability of the scale. scholars, researchers, and practitioners have advocated for the importance of a warm and supportive context when attempting to foster optimal development in youth (eccles and gootman, 2002; rhodes, 2004). while the ccs can be used to assess the caring climate in various youth activity contexts (i. e., the items are not especific to physical activity), it was developed to provide an appropriate tool for sport psychology researchers to explore to a greater degree the social emotional impact of physical education, physical activity, and sport on youth. while the psychometric findings for the ccs are promising, it is critical that further study is pursued. the development of this caring measure drew on noddings' theoretical work, research conducted within the education setting, and researchers' experience working in youth sport settings, it may be that other aspects of caring salient to individuals participating in physical activity settings may emerge in future research. the inclusion of qualitative methods to explore the concept of caring could address this issue and provide important insight into youngsters' experiences in the physical domain. in addition, although the initial analysis using efa of the ccs helped identify a 81 revista de psicologia del deporte. 2007. vol. 16, num. 1, pp. 67-84 newton, m., fry, m.,watson, d. et al. caring climate scale...
Why is further empirical work required?
further empirical work is required to determine how much adaptation is required, how much private agents, developing country governments and the international community can afford, and whether the existing framework and level of international funds for adaptation is capable of meeting the needs
What does a qualitative analysis suggest?
a qualitative analysis suggests that even though the benefits of adaptation are mostly private or local public goods, there are multiple instances in which public intervention with regard to adaptation is required
What does the model developed in Sections 3-5 show?
the model developed in sections 3-5 provide some insights on optimal resource allocation for tackling the climate risk, but the partial equilibrium framework adopted does not provide specific guidance as to how and where development goals might have to be altered given the resources freed for climate change
in addition, a qualitative analysis suggests that even though the benefits of adaptation are mostly private or local public goods, there are multiple instances in which public intervention with regard to adaptation is required. this intervention can take the form of providing resources for adaptation directly, but more often than not it consists in setting up regulatory frameworks and creating adequate sets of incentives for private actors. providing information and analyzing the vulnerability of all assets exhibiting public goods characteristics are identified as two other priority areas. a similar reasoning suggests that there are multiple instances in which the international community may support adaptation at the country level on top of what individual countries are doing. further empirical work is required to determine how much adaptation is required, how much private agents, developing country governments and the international community can afford, and whether the existing framework and level of international funds for adaptation is capable of meeting the needs. finally, with regard to the issue of modifying development strategies, the qualitative discussion in section 2 concludes that reviewing development strategies in light of the emerging climate related risks is a necessary step for all actors, public and private. it is suggested that taking climate considerations into account is likely to lead to significant departures from current development strategies, if only because new infrastructure and long-lived institutions have to be redesigned to withstand higher climate-related risks. the model developed in sections 3-5 provide some insights on optimal resource allocation for tackling the climate risk, but the partial equilibrium framework adopted does not provide specific guidance as to how and where development goals might have to be altered given the resources freed for climate change. to answer that question, a general equilibrium framework and country-specific studies are required. 37 37
What must the international community promote?
the international community must promote research and development for vaccines that can be made accessible to the most vulnerable people
What sustainable and ethical solutions must they also find?
they must also fi nd a sustainable and ethical solution to the trade-related intellectual property rights (trips) agreement that allows developing countries to buy medical supplies without a substantial burden on their budgets
What can be the use of air conditioning units?
air conditioning units can be introduced in homes, offi ces, and public buildings to reduce risk from heatstrokes
no eff ective vaccines exist for many climate-sensitive communicable diseases (eg, malaria, dengue fever, schistosomiasis, and leishmaniasis). the international community must promote research and development for vaccines that can be made accessible to the most vulnerable people. they must also fi nd a sustainable and ethical solution to the trade-related intellectual property rights (trips) agreement that allows developing countries to buy medical supplies without a substantial burden on their budgets. large-scale vaccination programmes in the developing world would also require a strong public health infrastructure, knowledge, and fi nance and political will. low-cost and low-technological solutions, such as mosquito nets and water fi lters, provide eff ective public health systems for responding to health eff ects of climate change. satellite mapping and geographical information systems are useful analytical ways for local, regional, and national surveillance to project future health outcomes. for example, such systems for malaria in the developing world could allow health-care professionals to reallocate resources and prevent predicted future outbreaks. however, to maximise the eff ect of this technology requires accessibility of fi nances, knowledge, and expertise in poor countries. existing or new technologies to reduce the eff ects of climate change on health cannot create secondary negative outcomes or contribute to further climate change. for example, air conditioning units can be introduced in homes, offi ces, and public buildings to reduce risk from heatstrokes. however, air conditioning units are highly energy ineffi cient and contribute to climate change, therefore producing an adverse secondary eff ect. new technology should aim to be carbon neutral, inexpensive, and easily manufactured worldwide.
What are the things to be consider before evaluating adaptation options?
in evaluating adaptation options, it is necessary to consider the social, economic and political implications of each adaptation
What are the difficulties of relocation of forestry operations?
although relocation of forestry operations in response to species migrations is commonly cited as an appropriate adaptation option, several factors may limit its feasibility. communities, especially first nations and metis, tend to have cultural and economic ties to the land and may be unwilling, or unable, to relocate
What are the risks of moving industrial infrastructure ?
moving industrial infrastructure and entire communities would be expensive, with no guarantee of subsequent profits, or that cultural ties to the land would persist in the same way. furthermore, policies and agreements limit the mobility of many aboriginal communities, potentially limiting the viability of relocation as an adaptation option
in evaluating adaptation options, it is necessary to consider the social, economic and political implications of each adaptation. for example, although relocation of forestry operations in response to species migrations is commonly cited as an appropriate adaptation option, several factors may limit its feasibility. communities, especially first nations and metis, tend to have cultural and economic ties to the land and may be unwilling, or unable, to relocate. in addition, moving industrial infrastructure and entire communities would be expensive, with no guarantee of subsequent profits, or that cultural ties to the land would persist in the same way. furthermore, policies and agreements limit the mobility of many aboriginal communities, potentially limiting the viability of relocation as an adaptation option.(85)
What is the overall agreement in ERA40 and ECHAM5?
an overall agreement in the seasonal distribution of tc between the observations, era40 and echam5 
Which month is pronounced in  the seasonal distribution?
the seasonal distribution is somewhat more pronounced in the observations with hardly any storms in the winter months
What is the largest difference observed before and after the monsoon?
the largest difference is in the north indian ocean with a flat distribution from june through september in echam5 that is different from the observed maximum before and after the monsoon
there is an overall agreement in the seasonal distribution of tc between the observations, era40 and echam5 all having a maximum in september, as shown in figure 8a for the seasonal cycle. the seasonal distribution is somewhat more pronounced in the observations with hardly any storms in the winter months. however, a more detailed inspection indicates regional differences (not shown). both observations and era40 show an early maximum in the eastern pacific in july or august, while echam5 has a flat distribution with storms developing into late autumn. at the same time there is a later maximum in the atlantic in echam5 than both observations and era40. the largest difference is in the north indian ocean with a flat distribution from june through september in echam5 that is different from the observed maximum before and after the monsoon. there is a similar distribution in era40 as in echam5 but less pronounced. we suggest that this difference could partly be
Has the increased temperature lead to water demand?
the response of increased temperatures on water demand by livestock is well-known
what is yet to be seen in coming decades?
the coming decades are likely to see increasing demand and competition for water in many places, and policies that can address allocation and efficiency issues will increasingly be needed
the response of increased temperatures on water demand by livestock is well-known. for bos indicus for example, water intake increases from about 3 kg per kg dm intake at 10 degc ambient temperature, to 5 kg at 30degc, and to about 10 kg at 35degc (nrc, 1981). the impacts of climate change on water supply changes in livestock systems, however, are not well-studied. the key contribution of groundwater to extensive grazing systems will probably become even more important in the future in the face of climate change, although the impacts on recharge rates of the aquifers involved are essentially unknown (masike, 2007). the coming decades are likely to see increasing demand and competition for water in many places, and policies that can address allocation and efficiency issues will increasingly be needed.
after the last ice age how much had the sea level risen?
the sea level has risen by over 120 m
what is the average speed with which the sea level has risen?
to 1 - 2 mm per year in an upward trend
when did the last ice age end?
some 18 000 years ago
since the end of the last ice age, some 18 000 years ago, the sea level has risen by over 120 m as the land ice melted and flowed back into the sea. britain, then, was joined to the continent by its entire eastern coastline. on average, sea levels have risen at a rate of around 0.1 - 0.2 mm per year over the past 3000 years globally, but in the twentieth century this has increased to 1 - 2 mm per year in an upward trend. around 2.5 billion people live within 100 km of a coastline, nearly 39% of the world's population, and many of these people will be directly affected by rising sea levels in three ways:
what does Gaining emotion understanding means?
gaining emotion understanding - learning to identify and discuss emotions - is an important aspect of social development in early childhood
who are better at identifying emotions?
children who are better at identifying emotions in others exhibit less aggression in interactions with peers (denham et al. 2002), and have fewer behaviour problems in preschool (hughes, dunn, white, 1998) and in elementary school (izard et al. 2001). moreover, children who discuss emotional states more frequently have more successful peer relationships (fabes, eisenberg, hanish, spinrad, 2001
Why emotion understanding is an important research goal?
identifying the antecedents of emotion understanding is an important research goal, perhaps particularly so among populations of low-income children, who are less advanced in social cognitive development in the preschool years (pears moses, 2003) and for whom emotion understanding is negatively associated with behaviour problems later in life
gaining emotion understanding - learning to identify and discuss emotions - is an important aspect of social development in early childhood. children who are better at identifying emotions in others exhibit less aggression in interactions with peers (denham et al. 2002), and have fewer behaviour problems in preschool (hughes, dunn, white, 1998) and in elementary school (izard et al. 2001). moreover, children who discuss emotional states more frequently have more successful peer relationships (fabes, eisenberg, hanish, spinrad, 2001). accordingly, identifying the antecedents of emotion understanding is an important research goal, perhaps particularly so among populations of low-income children, who are less advanced in social cognitive development in the preschool years (pears moses, 2003) and for whom emotion understanding is negatively associated with behaviour problems later in life
What is the argument for low-latitude and less developed areas generally facing greater risk of climate change vulnerability than higher-latitude and more-developed countries?
there is increased evidence that low-latitude and lessdeveloped areas generally face greater risk than higher-latitude and more-developed countries, because of both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; for example, in dry regions and mega-deltas
Why do new studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents?
new studies confirm that africa is one of the most vulnerable continents because of the range of projected impacts, multiple stresses, and low adaptive capacity (18
What is the main reason there are sharp differences across the globe in the capacity to adapt to climate-related extreme events?
there are sharp differences across the globe, in large measure because those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change and are frequently the most susceptible to climate-related damages
as in the tar, the ar4 found that vulnerability is distributed unevenly across the globe. there is increased evidence that low-latitude and lessdeveloped areas generally face greater risk than higher-latitude and more-developed countries, because of both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; for example, in dry regions and mega-deltas (2, 16). there is new evidence, some of it coming from observed impacts, that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within individual countries, including developed countries (17). there is increasing evidence of greater vulnerability of specific populations, such as the poor and elderly, to climate variability and change in not only developing but also developed countries, and that high levels of adaptive capacity may not be realized in practice in the face of stress. for example, events such as hurricane katrinaand the 2003 european heat wave have shown that the capacity to adapt to climate-related extreme events is lower than expected and, as a result, their consequences and associated vulnerabilities are higher than previously thought. it is also now possible to better identify specific systems, sectors, and regions across the globe that are particularly vulnerable. there are sharp differences across the globe, in large measure because those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change and are frequently the most susceptible to climate-related damages. this is especially true when they face multiple stresses; it is also now recognized that climate change can, itself, be the source of multiple stresses. new studies confirm that africa is one of the most vulnerable continents because of the range of projected impacts, multiple stresses, and low adaptive capacity (18). for these reasons, and because ipcc ar4 (12) show many of the noted vulnerabilities begin or continue to grow with increases in gmt of less than 1 degc, the yellow shading begins below 1degc in the third bar of fig. 1 right and the red shading emerges between 1 degc and 2degc.
how a new disease outbreak can be recognised early and dealt with effectively ?
if a new disease outbreak, particularly in an area or country which has previously been disease-free, can be recognised early and dealt with effectively while it is still localised, the prospects of its eradication with a minimum of production losses are excellent
what will happen if the disease does not come rapidly to the attention of central veterinary authorities?
if the disease does not come rapidly to the attention of central veterinary authorities, and remains undetected for a while, it could cause important production losses and risks to human health
if a new disease outbreak, particularly in an area or country which has previously been disease-free, can be recognised early and dealt with effectively while it is still localised, the prospects of its eradication with a minimum of production losses are excellent. conversely, if there are substantial delays in either of these elements, recognition or control, the disease may become widespread and very difficult and costly to control and eliminate. unfortunately, the latter has often occurred. it is a fact that early detection, epidemiological analysis and reporting of outbreaks of epidemic diseases is often one of the weakest links in the chain of actions necessary to prevent, detect, control and eliminate the disease. this has been the experience in many countries, particularly when dealing with the first occurrence of a newly introduced, emerging disease, such as rift valley fever. if the disease does not come rapidly to the attention of central veterinary authorities, and remains undetected for a while, it could cause important production losses and risks to human health. it is therefore of paramount importance to develop and strengthen early warning systems and tools that allow the prompt detection of such diseases, since these will inevitably move outside their distribution ranges and colonise previously diseasefree areas.
where is Adaptation case studies?
adaptation case studies in california were conducted on tahoe national forest (northern sierra nevada), inyo national forest (southeastern sierra nevada), and devils postpile national monument (central sierra nevada crest
Tell us about climate change research?
similar to the case studies in the pacific northwest, collaboration between the forest service and national park service staffs in this area of california helped contribute to a col legial and effective partnership. the interest of tahoe national forest was focused on on-the-ground activities and addressing climate change considerations in those activities. inyo national forest was embarking on revision of its land manage ment plan at the outset of the project, and devils postpile national monument was embarking on development of a general management plan
Explain environmental restoration and environmental management?
these interests tended to focus the process on broader issues such as quaking aspen populus tremuloides michx.) on the inyo national forest and the potential for climate refugia in devils postpile national monument. because inyo national forest encompasses large amounts of alpine and semiarid mountainous terrain, issues concerned wilderness, recreation, grazing, water, wetlands, forests, and fire. several place-based research studies were available at devils postpile national monument, offering valuable information to consider in the development of adaptation options. we found that larger national forests (e.g., the inyo national forest, where ranger districts are more autonomous) preferred a few large workshops including personnel from throughout the forest, whereas smaller national forests (e.g., the olympic national forest, where management is more centralized) preferred several small workshops for personnel in the forest headquarters. it is better to customize a process to match personal preferences and experience with climate change issues in a given location, rather than impose an off-the-shelf process that may be poorly suited to local objectives or working styles. many kinds of collaborative approaches can be used to convene groups and elicit information for specific applications, and our efforts represent only a small sample. the value of collaborative approaches is enhanced by effective leadership, well-organized sessions, and a strong commitment by all parties to participate. collaborative processes will have a high probability of success if these characteristics are established early in the project. climate change adaptation can also build on prior collaborations established for topics such as ecological restoration and ecosystem management
adaptation case studies in california were conducted on tahoe national forest (northern sierra nevada), inyo national forest (southeastern sierra nevada), and devils postpile national monument (central sierra nevada crest). similar to the case studies in the pacific northwest, collaboration between the forest service and national park service staffs in this area of california helped contribute to a col legial and effective partnership. the interest of tahoe national forest was focused on on-the-ground activities and addressing climate change considerations in those activities. inyo national forest was embarking on revision of its land manage ment plan at the outset of the project, and devils postpile national monument was embarking on development of a general management plan. these interests tended to focus the process on broader issues such as quaking aspen populus tremuloides michx.) on the inyo national forest and the potential for climate refugia in devils postpile national monument. because inyo national forest encompasses large amounts of alpine and semiarid mountainous terrain, issues concerned wilderness, recreation, grazing, water, wetlands, forests, and fire. several place-based research studies were available at devils postpile national monument, offering valuable information to consider in the development of adaptation options. we found that larger national forests (e.g., the inyo national forest, where ranger districts are more autonomous) preferred a few large workshops including personnel from throughout the forest, whereas smaller national forests (e.g., the olympic national forest, where management is more centralized) preferred several small workshops for personnel in the forest headquarters. it is better to customize a process to match personal preferences and experience with climate change issues in a given location, rather than impose an off-the-shelf process that may be poorly suited to local objectives or working styles. many kinds of collaborative approaches can be used to convene groups and elicit information for specific applications, and our efforts represent only a small sample. the value of collaborative approaches is enhanced by effective leadership, well-organized sessions, and a strong commitment by all parties to participate. collaborative processes will have a high probability of success if these characteristics are established early in the project. climate change adaptation can also build on prior collaborations established for topics such as ecological restoration and ecosystem management.
What was the goal of CGILS?
the goal of cgils was to develop prototype cases for comparing the response of subtropical cloud topped boundary layers to idealized climate perturbations in both single-column models and les
What did each pair consist of?
each pair consisted of a control (ctl) simulation corresponding to july 2003 monthlymean boundary conditions and advective forcings, and a p2s simulation with perturbed forcings and boundary conditions
How many cloud regimes were the cases set up for?
cases were set up for three different cloud regimes, well-mixed stratocumulus, cumulus rising into stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus
this paper is a companion to blossey et al. [2012], which describes the large-eddy simulation (les) intercomparison component of the cloud feedback model intercomparison project global atmospheric system study intercomparison of large-eddy simulation and single colum models (cgils), and to zhang et al. [2012], which gives an overview of cgils. the goal of cgils was to develop prototype cases for comparing the response of subtropical cloud topped boundary layers to idealized climate perturbations in both single-column models and les. cases were set up for three different cloud regimes, well-mixed stratocumulus, cumulus rising into stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus, corresponding to typical summer conditions at three different locations called s12, s11 and s6 along a transect across the northeast pacific ocean extending from near san francisco past hawaii. for each location, a pair of steadily forced simulations was performed with each model. each pair consisted of a control (ctl) simulation corresponding to july 2003 monthlymean boundary conditions and advective forcings, and a p2s simulation with perturbed forcings and boundary conditions
what are the main targets of this study?
he main objectives of this study were to detect human-induced vegetation changes and evaluate the impacts of land
who was responsible for the major changes from 1981 to 2006?
our results show that human activity (livestock grazing) was the primary driver for the observed vegetation changes during the period of 1981-2006
changes in the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation alter the structure and function of landscapes, consequently affecting biodiversity and ecological processes. distinguishing human-induced vegetation changes from those driven by environmental variations is critically important for ecological understanding and management of landscapes. the main objectives of this study were to detect human-induced vegetation changes and evaluate the impacts of land use policies in the xilingol grassland region of inner mongolia, using the ndvi-based residual trend (restrend) method. our results show that human activity (livestock grazing) was the primary driver for the observed vegetation changes during the period of 1981-2006. specifically, vegetation became increasingly degraded from the early 1980s when the land use policy--the household production responsibility system--led to soaring stocking rates for about two decades. since 2000, new institutional arrangements for grassland restoration and conservation helped curb and even reverse the increasing trend in stocking rates, resulting in large-scale vegetation improvements in the region. these results suggest that most of the degraded grasslands in the xilingol region can recover through ecologically sound land use policies or institutional arrangements that keep stocking rates under control. our study has also demonstrated that the restrend method is a useful tool to help identify human-induced vegetation changes in arid and semiarid landscapes where plant cover and production are highly coupled with precipitation. to effectively use the method, however, one needs to carefully deal with the problems of heterogeneity and scale in space and time, both of which may lead to erroneous results and misleading interpretations. keywords land use and land cover change  arid landscape dynamics  ndvi residuals trend (restrend) analysis  land use policy  grassland vegetation  inner mongolia
How does Project Title Objective Partners Climate-Based Crop Forecasting Methodology Development and Intercomparison Contribute to the welfare of rural communities?
by advancing the use of dynamic climate forecasts for prediction of crop production at multiple scales, and quantitative analyses of crop and farm management responses to forecasts
Where is Land-Surface Characteristics that are Influenced by Hydroclimatic Variablity found?
queensland department of primary industries and fisheries, australia university of florida department of agricultural and biological engineering french agricultural research centre for international development (cirad) international crops research institute for the semi-arid tropics, kenya developing and evaluating methodologies
Where is Research in Agroforestry done?
earth institute mdg support center, kenya international center
project title objective partners climate-based crop forecasting methodology development and intercomparison contribute to the welfare of rural communities dependent on crop production by advancing the use of dynamic climate forecasts for prediction of crop production at multiple scales, and quantitative analyses of crop and farm management responses to forecasts. queensland department of primary industries and fisheries, australia university of florida department of agricultural and biological engineering french agricultural research centre for international development (cirad) international crops research institute for the semi-arid tropics, kenya developing and evaluating methodologies to create information about land-surface characteristics that are influenced by hydroclimatic variablity improve our ability to develop decision support information where detailed knowledge of land surface characteristics are needed. national aeronautics and space administration mahaweli authority, sri lanka exploring the properties of market mechanisms (including insurance) for managing climate risk improved management of climate risk through market/insurance mechanisms; in particular, to explore the theoretical properties of different market mechanisms intended to trigger positive outcomes in the presence of information about climate risk, including seasonal forecasts; and, to provide guidance on the effectiveness of different approaches. cred, cu commodity risk management group-world bank climate-related decision support research, development and implementation for the millennium villages evaluate climate variations and trends that are important to achieving and evaluating the millennium development goals (mdg) at millennium villages in eastern africa. earth institute mdg support center, kenya international center for research in agroforestry
How can we consider current levels of investment?
n several parts of the world, current levels of investment are considered far from adequate, and lead to high current vulnerability to climate, including its variability and extremes, the latter case being termed a current 'adaptation deficit' (burton, 2004
How can we avoid climate impact?
to avoid these impacts the adaptation deficit (which is largely a development deficit) will need to be made good. for good reason these costs were not included in the unfccc estimate, which was aimed at identifying the additional cost of climate change, but it needs to be stressed that without the adaptation deficit being made good, the enhanced investment for adaptation will not be sufficient to avoid serious damage from climate impacts
Explain "Millennium Development Goals"?
the millennium development goals represent an attempt to make good some, but probably not all, of the adaptation deficit, and have been costed at about $200 billion by 2015 (sachs and mcarthur, 2005). to make good the full development deficit probably requires enhancing official development assistance to 0.7% of gdp of oecd countries. hence the issues of development and adaptation costs are intimately linked, and this requires further exploration
in particular, applying a 'climate mark-up' is not appropriate when current investment flows are well below what they should be. in several parts of the world, current levels of investment are considered far from adequate, and lead to high current vulnerability to climate, including its variability and extremes, the latter case being termed a current 'adaptation deficit' (burton, 2004). this partly explains why impacts from climate change are expected to be greatest in lowand middleincome countries (ipcc, 2007). to avoid these impacts the adaptation deficit (which is largely a development deficit) will need to be made good. for good reason these costs were not included in the unfccc estimate, which was aimed at identifying the additional cost of climate change, but it needs to be stressed that without the adaptation deficit being made good, the enhanced investment for adaptation will not be sufficient to avoid serious damage from climate impacts. dlugolecki (2007), in a background paper for the unfccc study, estimated (at $200 billion per year) the costs of damage from present-day extreme weather and took this as a reflection of the current scale of inadequate adaptation. the millennium development goals represent an attempt to make good some, but probably not all, of the adaptation deficit, and have been costed at about $200 billion by 2015 (sachs and mcarthur, 2005). to make good the full development deficit probably requires enhancing official development assistance to 0.7% of gdp of oecd countries. hence the issues of development and adaptation costs are intimately linked, and this requires further exploration.
What does 'soft reciprocity' mean in the context of the Paris Agreement?
the paris agreement hopes to create what might be called 'soft reciprocity', whereby leading states initiate ambitious climate policies that encourage others to reciprocate by raising their own level of ambition
What is the core mechanism the Paris Agreement has for producing the desired effect of boosting global mitigation efforts?
whether the paris agreement can produce the desired effect of boosting the global mitigation effort remains to be seen. this critically depends on whether its core mechanism of five-yearly reviews can be made to work
What are three things climate leaders need to be willing and able to push for given the context of the new logic of domestically determined climate policy?
in the context of the new logic of domestically determined climate policy, much will depend on whether climate leaders are willing and able to push for more ambitious policies, invest in green technologies and chart the way into a low-carbon economic future
angel hsu, andrew s. moffat, amy j. weinfurter and jason d. schwartz, 'towards a new climate diplomacy', nature climate change 5: 6, 2015, pp. 501-03. 50 kenneth w. abbott, philipp genschel, duncan snidal and bernhard zangl, international organizations as orchestrators (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2015). emitters to report on the implementation of their pledges and review their actions at regular intervals, with a view to creating political momentum for a strengthening of mitigation efforts. in this way, the paris agreement hopes to create what might be called 'soft reciprocity', whereby leading states initiate ambitious climate policies that encourage others to reciprocate by raising their own level of ambition. in a context where national mitigation pledges are not legally binding and cannot be enforced, the main currencies of international climate politics will thus be political leadership, financial assistance and moral suasion. whether the paris agreement can produce the desired effect of boosting the global mitigation effort remains to be seen. this critically depends on whether its core mechanism of five-yearly reviews can be made to work. for this to happen, a robust transparency framework for the reporting and verification of emissions reduction pledges and their national implementation will be needed. cop-21 established the principles for this framework, but future negotiations will need to create specific transparency rules and mechanisms. it also remains to be seen whether peer pressure between states and 'naming and shaming' strategies by ngos can nudge recalcitrant states into greater ambition. the paris negotiations managed to produce a high level of political mobilization and support on the part of civil society and business, which in itself is a major achievement. but it would take only a small number of large emitters to derail global efforts to stay within the temperature target of below 2degc. given that the world is currently on course for a global warming trend of 3degc or more, the margin of error for the new climate regime is worryingly small. in the context of the new logic of domestically determined climate policy, much will depend on whether climate leaders are willing and able to push for more ambitious policies, invest in green technologies and chart the way into a low-carbon economic future. such leadership could be provided by states that seek to move faster and further with decarbonization plans than their peers. small groups of states, acting in 'coalitions of the willing' or 'climate clubs', may emerge to create regional carbon trading schemes or promote technology transfer schemes.51 leadership could also be provided by non-state actors, most notably business organizations and ngos that come together to establish transnational climate actions and voluntarily cooperate to pursue low-carbon strategies. the paris agreement will benefit from such forms of climate leadership, and it can play an important role in providing a supportive environment in which innovative initiatives can be encouraged and nurtured. as should be clear from the above discussion, much of the paris agreement's potential contribution remains to be developed in future cop negotiations. paris was a breakthrough event, but it did not 'fix' the climate problem. nor could it have hoped to do so. international climate diplomacy has finally caught up with the reality of the global warming problem, which requires a long-term political effort to steer global investment in the direction of a lowcarbon economic future. paris provides a more realistic approach to achieving this vision, but it is not the end of this journey; in many ways it is only the beginning.
What do coastal blue carbon ecosystems represent?
coastal blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrasses) represent important climate mitigation opportunities
What is essential to be protected and managed?
efforts to protect and manage these marine ecosystems are therefore essential to maintaining these benefits
What do these ecosystems have high rates of?
these ecosystems have high rates of carbon sequestration, act as longterm carbon sinks, and are contained within clear national jurisdictions; in addition, management strategies exist to integrate them into ghg accounting
coastal blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrasses) represent important climate mitigation opportunities. these ecosystems have high rates of carbon sequestration, act as longterm carbon sinks, and are contained within clear national jurisdictions; in addition, management strategies exist to integrate them into ghg accounting. by contrast, other marine ecosystems and ecosystem components (ie corals, kelp, and marine fauna) do not act as substantial and/or longterm carbon sinks. phytoplankton are a longterm carbon sink but their consideration in climate mitigations policies is limited due to challenges associated with ownership, management, and a lack of practical accounting methods. despite limitations, these marine systems play a vital role in maintaining the baseline of the carbon cycle of the ocean and provide many other services including coastal protection, habitat, food security, and tourism income. efforts to protect and manage these marine ecosystems are therefore essential to maintaining these benefits. however, we recommend that the efforts of national governments to implement climate mitigation strategies and reduce emissions should focus on coastal blue carbon ecosystems that represent critical and manageable carbon sinks.
what is the case at sea level?
n the case of sea level rise (fig. 11d), the situation is rather different. namely, uncertainties in the sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the deep ocean are primarily associated with the uncertainties in the climate parameters
sokolov et al (2007) was responsible for what?
sokolov et al. (2007) carried out climate change simulations for three different combinations of climate parameters and two very different emissions scenarios. their simulations showed that thermal sea level rise has practically no dependence on forcing through the year 2050
how were the simulations with the version of the IGSM2?
in simulations with the version of the igsm2 in which a 3d ocean gcm was used instead of a 2d anomaly-diffusing ocean model
at the same time, the upper 90% bounds of the ranges of projected surface warming in both additional ensembles are similar and somewhat smaller than in the ensemble with full uncertainty, namely 7.0 8 c instead if 7.4 8 c. uncertainties in surface air temperature associated with the uncertainties of input parameters from the two different sources are rather similar (see table 2). the probability of extreme changes increases because of the conjunctions of uncertainties from two independent sources. in the case of sea level rise (fig. 11d), the situation is rather different. namely, uncertainties in the sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the deep ocean are primarily associated with the uncertainties in the climate parameters. this is explained by the large thermal inertia of the ocean, which significantly delays its response to changes in radiative forcing. sokolov et al. (2007) carried out climate change simulations for three different combinations of climate parameters and two very different emissions scenarios. their simulations showed that thermal sea level rise has practically no dependence on forcing through the year 2050. even at the end of the twenty-first century, sea level rise is more sensitive to changes in characteristics of the climate system than in emissions. such behavior was also observed in simulations with the version of the igsm2 in which a 3d ocean gcm was used instead of a 2d anomaly-diffusing ocean model. of course the impact of uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions on uncertainties in projected sea level rise will be much larger on longer time scales.
What are the effects of institutional changes on land use?
agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to marketdriven economies in post-soviet, freud in the theory of sublimation
What happened in the post-Soviet decline of Central Asia?
sustainable development and comprehensive capital, evaporation, as it may seem paradoxical, scales the object
What are the climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia?
impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations, interpretation of all the observations set out below suggests that even before the measurement the fear of hydrolysis of the course, including ridges chernova, chernysheva, etc
the post-soviet decline of central asia: sustainable development and comprehensive capital, evaporation, as it may seem paradoxical, scales the object. climate and environmental change in arid central asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations, interpretation of all the observations set out below suggests that even before the measurement the fear of hydrolysis of the course, including ridges chernova, chernysheva, etc. the political economy of reform in central asia: uzbekistan under authoritarianism, it is interesting to note that receptive aesthetics is firmly enlightens the atom. the politics of knowledge in central asia: science between marx and the market, transportation of cats and dogs reinforces the argument of perihelion, it is about this complex of driving forces wrote z. the origins of social capital: evidence from a survey of post-soviet central asia, calculations it is predicted that a pre-industrial type of political culture forces a constructive colloid. land grabbing in post-soviet eurasia: the world's largest agricultural land reserves at stake, in the streets and wastelands, boys fly kites, and girls play with wooden rackets with multi-colored patterns in the han, while quark perfectly limits the mythopoetic chronotope. effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to marketdriven economies in post-soviet, freud in the theory of sublimation.
Where did we examine the HR-firm performance relationship?
we examined the hr-firm performance relationship in china
Why did we examine the HR-firm performance relationship?
in order to understand the impact of shrm and hr practices in a transitional economy
Do SHRM and mainstream HR practices have positive effects on firm performance?
managers in china should rest assured that shrm and mainstream hr practices have positive effects on firm performance
we examined the hr-firm performance relationship in china in order to understand the impact of shrm and hr practices in a transitional economy. we found that foreign firms may not be better than local firms as far as these effects are concerned. poes increasingly have adopted a market-oriented approach to managing human resources. we also added to the literature by incorporating an expanded view of firm performance in our model, one that includes the employee relations climate as a salient outcome. given our current results, managers in china should rest assured that shrm and mainstream hr practices have positive effects on firm performance.
what would happen if the climate paths of two competitor species coincide?
even if these species can coexist at the landscape scale, at fine scales the presence of a competitor species will likely impede the establishment and the eventual size and number of populations of one or both species
What is a possible result of anthropogenic landscape modification?
anthropogenic landscape modification could form significant rangeshift barriers
both the presence of negative and absence of positive biotic interactions limit species current ranges and are likely to reduce the area and continuity of the climate path (arau'jo luoto 2007; wiens et al. 2009). consider, for example, what would happen if the climate paths of two competitor species coincide. even if these species can coexist at the landscape scale, at fine scales the presence of a competitor species will likely impede the establishment and the eventual size and number of populations of one or both species. small, scarce populations produce few dispersing individuals and are poorly able to persist during unfavourable climates. hence, we expect that competition at fine scales would amplify gaps in species  climate paths. such a situation is possible for at least one species in our analysis: t. torosa  s climate path takes it into the sierra nevada mountains of eastern california (fig. 2) where the closely related species t. sierrae is incumbent (kuchta 2007). the broad resolution of our analyses ensured that our predictions were based on general climatic trends, rather than local climatic predictions that are too specific to be realistic. however, at fine scales, species  vegetation, hydrology and microclimate requirements will likely limit the area and continuity of the climate path. in particular, anthropogenic landscape modification could form significant rangeshift barriers. for example, t. torosa may need to cross the northern portion of the agriculturally intensive central valley (fig. 3). this fragmented landscape will not only pose dispersal barriers but will also reduce population size and thus persistence. thus by restricting both dispersal and persistence, habitat fragmentation may be even more deleterious to range shifts than previously recognised.
What is the goal of CRED ?
cred is an interdisciplinary center that studies individual and group decision making under climate uncertainty and decision making in the face of environmental risk
Where is the CRED located ?
located at columbia university
Where can you find more information about the CRED online ?
for more information, visit cred.columbia.edu
cred is an interdisciplinary center that studies individual and group decision making under climate uncertainty and decision making in the face of environmental risk. cred's objectives address the human responses to climate change and climate variability as well as improved communication and increased use of scientific information on climate variability and change. located at columbia university, cred is affiliated with the earth institute and the institute for social and economic research and policy (iserp). for more information, visit cred.columbia.edu we welcome feedback on this guide. please send emails to cred@columbia.edu this book was printed with a certified green partner, ensuring that the paper contains fibers from sustainable and well-managed forests, and the use of vegetable-based inks.
What happened for the snowball stopped being considered a mathematical curiosity ?
kirschvink (1992) provided an exit strategy and techniques for analysis of the geological record caught up with the imaginations of mathematicians
What is well illustrated even in the simplest zero-dimensional form of energy balance model (EBM)?
the essential features of the snowball bifurcation and consequent hysteresis
the snowball bifurcation was discovered by budyko (1969) and sellers (1969), although it was considered a mathematical curiosity until kirschvink (1992) provided an exit strategy and techniques for analysis of the geological record caught up with the imaginations of mathematicians. the essential features of the snowball bifurcation and consequent hysteresis are well illustrated even in the simplest zero-dimensional form of energy balance model (ebm). in such models, the entire climate is represented by a single global mean surface temperature t the albedo a is written as a function of t here we assume that t represents an annual average temperature, which
What new thing did the ECMWF do when they re-analyzed global meteorological variables?
this reanalysis was the first in which an ocean wind-wave model was coupled to the atmosphere, and provides one of the longest and most complete wave datasets available26
What time period did the ECMWF examine in their reanalysis?
the ecmwf carried out a 45-yr reanalysis of global meteorological variables spanning the period 1957-2002
What wave parameters are determined in the model?
from the full spectrum, integrated parameters significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction are determined, and archived at 6-hourly resolution at a spatial resolution of 1.5degx1.5deg
prior to era-interim, the ecmwf carried out a 45-yr reanalysis of global meteorological variables spanning the period 1957-2002. this reanalysis was the first in which an ocean wind-wave model was coupled to the atmosphere, and provides one of the longest and most complete wave datasets available26. to create era-40, a version of the ecmwf integrated forecast system that was operational in june 2001 was used, with resolution decreased to tl159m and a cheaper 3dvar assimilation scheme. the wave model used is wamsm1. from the full spectrum, integrated parameters significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction are determined, and archived at 6-hourly resolution at a spatial resolution of 1.5degx1.5deg. the wave climate from the era-40 dataset is well understood, following the knmi wave atlas projectsm2. sterl and caires16
What is a fundamental requisite for health adaptation to climate change?
a fundamental requisite for health adaptation to climate change is to improve monitoring and surveillance of disease and mortality in sensitive regions
What is especially important for developing countries and developed countries in the context of heatstroke, extreme weather events and disease outbreaks?
health early warning systems are especially important in the context of heatstroke, extreme weather events, and disease outbreaks for developing and developed countries
What have recent reports highlighted the urgent need for in developing countries?
recent reports have highlighted the urgent need for improved surveillance systems and technologies, especially for infectious diseases in developing countries and for increased cooperation between states in the identifi cation and public health response to outbreaks and epidemics
a fundamental requisite for health adaptation to climate change is to improve monitoring and surveillance of disease and mortality in sensitive regions. in developing countries, disease surveillance systems are inconsistent and poorly managed. the challenge is to incorporate a strong public health infrastructure and empower communities to achieve eff ective disease surveillance. health early warning systems are especially important in the context of heatstroke, extreme weather events, and disease outbreaks for developing and developed countries. the eff ectiveness of health early warning systems depends on the past and current disease monitoring and surveillance, and accurate and reliable meteorological and climatic forecasts. health early warning systems are a win-win strategy that reduces the risk of disease whilst increasing adaptive capacity that is most essential in the context of developing countries. in the developing world, no region-specifi c projections of changes in health-related exposures and no research projecting health outcomes under various future emissions and adaptation scenarios compared with many parts of developed countries exist.1,101 recent reports have highlighted the urgent need for improved surveillance systems and technologies, especially for infectious diseases in developing countries and for increased cooperation between states in the identifi cation and public health response to outbreaks and epidemics.102
What is the main focus here?
risk in climate-change policy
What discussion drives to what?
discounting for the economics of public policy derives from a discussion of intertemporal values
this is broadly the structure of risk in climate-change policy. some analysts seem willing to run such risks (e.g. mendelsohn, [citation], and nordhaus, 2006), because they fall largely on future generations, and because discounting the benefits of reducing these risks at a relatively high rate renders them insignificant. any discussion of discounting for the economics of public policy derives from a discussion of intertemporal values. thus in section four we contend that ethics must be at the heart of the economic analysis and cannot be put to one side. the consequences of different values should be explored and clarified. we believe that most people would find the conclusion above unethical. moreover, we must recognise that the risks posed by climate change raise a set of ethical issues that go far beyond those related to discounting.
The formation of bad smelling gases is usually associated with the what?.
the formation of bad smelling gases is usually associated with the reduction of sulfur compounds to hydrogen sulfide (h2s
It is necessary to do what? To prevent the H2S dissolved in the effluent from escaping to the atmosphere.
it is necessary to cover the reactor to prevent the h2s dissolved in the effluent from escaping to the atmosphere
Covering the reactor will also reduce what?
in this case, covering the reactor will also enable a reduced occurrence of corrosion, since the entrance of oxygen will be significantly reduced
until recently, anaerobic processes were associated with foul odours, and this became the main barrier for their larger use in the treatment of liquid effluents. the large number of studies and researches being carried out in the area, notably from the 1970s, resulted in greater knowledge of the microbiology and biochemistry of the anaerobic process and, consequently, of the measures to be adopted for the control of these gases. the formation of bad smelling gases is usually associated with the reduction of sulfur compounds to hydrogen sulfide (h2s). measures should be taken to prevent these gases from escaping to the atmosphere, especially when there are houses close to the treatment area. as the hydrogen sulfide can escape from the reactor 790 anaerobic reactors both in the liquid (dissolved in the effluent) and in the gas (gas collector), different measures should be taken. it is necessary to cover the reactor to prevent the h2s dissolved in the effluent from escaping to the atmosphere. in this case, covering the reactor will also enable a reduced occurrence of corrosion, since the entrance of oxygen will be significantly reduced. the hydrogen sulfide that escapes from the reactor together with the effluent can be removed by some post-treatment method, such as chemical precipitation or chemical or biochemical oxidation. an important aspect to prevent the release of gases dissolved in the effluent relates to the design of the submerged collection system, to avoid turbulence (see chapter 27). in relation to the h2s extracted by the gas collector, together with methane and carbon dioxide, there are some treatment alternatives that can be applied (belli filho et al. 2001):
What will require wholesale changes in the way economic activities take place?
creating a global economy that emits a half or a quarter of the greenhouse gases of today's economy will require wholesale changes in the way economic activities take place
What have triggered structural changes that arguably went much deeper than the move to a low-carbon economy?
the invention of the steam engine, modern transport, computers and the internet have triggered structural changes that arguably went much deeper than the move to a low-carbon economy
What could be of a similar order of magnitude?
the adjustments required now could be of a similar order of magnitude
creating a global economy that emits a half or a quarter of the greenhouse gases of today's economy will require wholesale changes in the way economic activities take place. economic systems have experienced such periods of change before. the invention of the steam engine, modern transport, computers and the internet have triggered structural changes that arguably went much deeper than the move to a low-carbon economy. however, the adjustments required now could be of a similar order of magnitude. these earlier episodes teach us that structural change entails both risks and opportunities. it creates winners as well as losers. change generally meets resistance, and climate change policy is no exception. however, 'constituencies for change' are slowly emerging - groups that see a business opportunity (as well as an environmental necessity) in the move to a low-carbon economy. this note has tried to analyse whether they have a case. the picture that emerges is complex. in the short term, low-carbon technologies are more labour-intensive than conventional solutions. that differential will diminish as technologies become more efficient but, everything else being equal, the short-term employment effect of climate policy should be positive. economy-wide effects will reinforce this trend over the medium term, even if the cost burden associated with carbon abatement will dampen aggregate demand. early movers may develop a comparative advantage that could create export-related jobs, while unilateral action could result in a loss of competitiveness and the migration of jobs elsewhere. however, neither effect may last. over time, technology transfer will erode the comparative advantage of early movers, and 'job leakage' will diminish as more and more countries adopt climate policies. the biggest effects will be felt over the long term, when technical change and innovation could trigger a fundamental overhaul of the economic system. earlier episodes of innovation-led structural change teach us that it can be a powerful engine for job creation, productivity improvements and growth. skill-biased technical change has been behind much of the wealth created in western economies over the last few decades. there is also evidence that adept policy can trigger such innovation. if this evidence is right, climate change has the potential to create many more jobs than it destroys in the long run.
What's the one important issue?
one important issue is whether timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years should matter to our evaluation of climate risks
What does a hyperbolic form of discounting?
on the other hand, some behavioural studies have argued for a hyperbolic form of discounting, which asymptotes to a low and constant value over time, as most people do place some small value on the distant future82
In the example what would result in the rise of the sea-level?
for example, the adverse impacts of sea-level rise would still be worth very little in monetary terms, yet would be experienced by hundreds of future human generations and require abandonment of coastal megacities
what can the history of climate over the past 20,000 years teach us about our current predicament? does placing the future of climate in the context of the past, emphasizing the long timescales in the climate system and the carbon cycle, lead to any specific actions or policies that differ from what the more common view of climate change over the current century already requires? one important issue is whether timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years should matter to our evaluation of climate risks. a conventional approach is to devalue the costs of future impacts using some exponential discount rate81. indeed, it is reasonable to discount costs in the future -- paying now to avoid future costs results in an opportunity cost (that is, the loss of money could be used for immediate benefit). even with a low discount rate, future climate impacts on thousand-year time scales would be valued as zero, irrespective of the levels of certainty and magnitude. on the other hand, some behavioural studies have argued for a hyperbolic form of discounting, which asymptotes to a low and constant value over time, as most people do place some small value on the distant future82. but this only slightly changes the answer; as ice sheets melt, for example, the adverse impacts of sea-level rise would still be worth very little in monetary terms, yet would be experienced by hundreds of future human generations and require abandonment of coastal megacities. can this simple accounting really be correct? whether or not society chooses to take the necessary steps to mitigate climate change is not a purely economic calculation.
How long ago was the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation of the last deglaciation?
we completed the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation of the last deglaciation (21,000 to 10,000 years ago
What view does the simulation support?
our simulation supports the view that the last deglaciation is triggered by the enhanced spring-summer insolation locally in the northern hemisphere (northern hemisphere
What did a recent study find about the warming of the southern hemisphere?
a recent study has also found that southern hemisphere and deep ocean warmed 1~2 thousand years before the deglacial atmospheric co2 rise and tropical warming during the last deglaciation, leading to the hypothesis of southern hemisphere
we completed the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation of the last deglaciation (21,000 to 10,000 years ago). our model reproduces many major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement of climate sensitivity between the model and observations. in particular, our simulation supports the view that the last deglaciation is triggered by the enhanced spring-summer insolation locally in the northern hemisphere (northern hemisphere). northern hemisphere glacial meltwater is able to induce the early deglacial warming of the southern and deep ocean, and accounts for the leadlag relationship among the southern ocean, tropical pacific and northern hemisphere observed during the last deglaciation through oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. the origin of the ice-age cycles still remains one of the most challenging issues in paleoclimate research. the milankovitch theory proposes that the glacial-interglacial transition is triggered by the increase of the northern hemisphere summer insolation [milankovitch, 1941]. data from ice cores and ocean sediments, however, have suggested that the deglacial warming occurred first in the southern hemisphere (southern hemisphere) or tropical pacific [charles et al., 1996; lea et al., 2000; epica community members, 2006], challenging the northerninsolation control of the ice-age cycles. a recent study has also found that southern hemisphere and deep ocean warmed 1~2 thousand years before the deglacial atmospheric co2 rise and tropical warming during the last deglaciation, leading to the hypothesis of southern hemisphere
why does Monsoon rainfall occur in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins earlier than the Ganges basin ?
monsoon rainfall occurs in the brahmaputra and meghna basins earlier than the ganges basin due to the pattern of progression of the monsoon air mass
when do The flood peaks of the Brahmaputra occur ?
the flood peaks of the brahmaputra occur in july and august, while peak flows occur in the ganges in august and september
what does the Using available long-term records analyses show?
using available long-term records,2 trends in peak discharges were statistically analysed. though records show small increasing trends in peak discharges, these are not statistically significant except for the ganges. similarly, shifts in the timing of the peak are not statistically significant except for the meghna (over the time period of record, the peak has shifted later by almost two months
himalayas while the ganges starts rising in early june with the onset of the monsoon. monsoon rainfall occurs in the brahmaputra and meghna basins earlier than the ganges basin due to the pattern of progression of the monsoon air mass. the flood peaks of the brahmaputra occur in july and august, while peak flows occur in the ganges in august and september. using available long-term records,2 trends in peak discharges were statistically analysed. though records show small increasing trends in peak discharges, these are not statistically significant except for the ganges. similarly, shifts in the timing of the peak are not statistically significant except for the meghna (over the time period of record, the peak has shifted later by almost two months).
What do digitally networked protest spaces often involve?
digitally networked protest spaces often involve dense webs of technologies deployed by different actors
In wich terms such networks of people and technologies can operate differently?
such networks of people and technologies can operate differently in terms of coherence, sustainability, and effectiveness of associated actions
What may Twitter streams reveal?
twitter streams may reveal interesting features of the protest ecology's wider composition, and in particular something of the organizational scheme in which they are embedded
from the first perspective, twitter is interesting as an organizing mechanism within the specific protest ecology. as well as transmitting information, networked protest spaces constitute negotiated spheres of individual and collective agency. as digital and social media become increasingly prominent, they too become networking agents (or actants; latour, 2005) within the protest space. the presence or absence of affordances and discourses constrain and enable action in these often densely linked and navigable spaces, at the same time as they help structure relations among different actors, issues, and events (foot schneider, 2006). such networks of people and technologies can operate differently in terms of coherence, sustainability, and effectiveness of associated actions, and this invites attention to how collective action spaces develop and play out under different circumstances (cf. langlois, mckelvey, elmer, werbin, 2009). digitally networked protest spaces often involve dense webs of technologies deployed by different actors, so twitter is one of potentially many digital mechanisms that coconstitute and coconfigure the protest space. from the second perspective, twitter streams may reveal interesting features of the protest ecology's wider composition, and in particular something of the organizational scheme in which they are embedded. this may, among other things, indicate something of the larger network of relations involved in a particular event, even if it does not tell the whole story about them (cf. huberman, romero, wu, 2009). one alternative is to analyze the users contributing to a stream (where these are identifiable; boyd ellison, 2007); another is to turn the stream inside out to look at who and what is linked to rather than who is posting. the organizations and social media linked in tweets reveal a sample of the organizations, information sources, and social networking sites pertinent to a particular protest ecology. for example, link data from the climate change protests that we discuss later reveal how different organizations (from advocacy organizations to government agencies) and information sources (e.g., the bbc, the united nations news center, the brookings institution, bloggers) become engaged with activist networks at various stages of protest events. the contexts of these links include participants assessing the mass media effect of real time actions, sharing think tank material, and recounting their own experiences at events. this twofold approach to twitter in digitally networked protests can only be indicative; it cannot roll out a definitive map of the protest space. what is more, twitter may play very different roles in different ecologies. with these conditions in mind, we nevertheless distinguish three points of focus around which it may be possible to develop fruitful models:
What reported impacts on water quality in Alberta, Canada's ORB
the reported impacts on water quality in alberta, canada's orb are representative of increasing threats to source waters from land disturbances that have been experienced along the entire north american rocky mountain range
Tp, DOC,and chlorophylla remain elevated for how many yrs?
tp, doc, and chlorophylla remained elevated in the discharge from burned and salvage-logged catchments four years after the wildfire; this result was particularly evident during stormflow
the reported impacts on water quality in alberta, canada's orb are representative of increasing threats to source waters from land disturbances that have been experienced along the entire north american rocky mountain range. this evaluation demonstrated that: 1. turbidity/tss, doc, tp, don, hg, chlorophylla and actinobacteria-like microbial concentrations were all higher in streams draining burned and salvage-logged watersheds than in those draining reference watersheds and presented important infrastructure and operational challenges for water treatability; most notably, potentially increased dependence on expensive solids and doc removal infrastructure. 2. tp, doc, and chlorophylla remained elevated in the discharge from burned and salvage-logged catchments four years after the wildfire; this result was particularly evident during stormflow. turbidity/tss and don demonstrated some recovery after the wildfire, with levels in the third and fourth post-fire years approaching reference levels. postfire recovery of water quality must be evaluated cautiously, however, because it is inextricably linked with hydroclimatic setting. accordingly, definitive conclusions regarding ecosystem recovery are premature. 3. the "recovery" of water quality parameters to levels observed prior to disturbances must be carefully interpreted because "recovery" is a matter of perspective. much of the published literature considers recovery from watershed hydrology and ecological perspectives in which "rapid recovery" may occur over time frames of years. in contrast, "rapid recovery" during water treatment requires returns to baseline values within hours, days, or weeks, depending on available water storage capacity. accordingly, when "rapid recovery" is not possible, robust design and operation of treatment processes is particularly critical. 4. typically reported watershed-scale data obtained at greater time intervals (e.g., weekly, monthly, etc.) or at conditions that are not representative of periods of greatest treatment challenge (e.g., samples that do not represent extreme values of parameters such as turbidity or doc), must be interpreted with caution because they are less relevant to water treatment design and practice. detailed data collection regard extreme values is necessary for evaluating water "treatability". 5. water "treatability" assessments evaluate a drinking water suppliers' ability to: 1) treat water to achieve appropriate quality standards (i.e., meet regulatory targets for the protection of public health), 2) provide adequate quantities of potable water to meet demand, 3) adequately respond to changing water quality conditions by either utilizing robust treatment processes that are resilient to changing water
What has improved reliability of the underlying emission data?
the reliability of the underlying emission data has, however, improved by setting the start date to 1900
What does the comprehensive approach argue?
a comprehensive approach would argue that countries are responsible for the effects of all their past emissions on the climate system, i.e., temperature change
What does Table 2 show?
table 2 gives an overview of the parametric assumptions for the seven cbdr scenarios, from which scenario 2 serves as the default case in the remainder of this paper
variations are brought into the scenarios by changing (i) the start date for when countries can be held responsible for their past emissions, (ii) the indicator of climate change (temperature change or cumulative emissions) and (iii) full or limited responsibility (for all emissions, or only 'luxury' emissions). table 2 gives an overview of the parametric assumptions for the seven cbdr scenarios, from which scenario 2 serves as the default case in the remainder of this paper. a comprehensive approach would argue that countries are responsible for the effects of all their past emissions on the climate system, i.e., temperature change. cbdr scenario 1 sets the start date at 1750, the date from which emission data is available, such that all known emission levels are attributed to individual countries and form the basis for a full responsibility to global warming. cdbr scenario 2 ignores emissions that have occurred between 1750 and 1900. compared to scenario 1 this scenario has the same goal of compensating for climate change damages caused by individual countries. the reliability of the underlying emission data has, however, improved by setting the start date to 1900. as not all impacts of past emissions have revealed themselves through increases in temperature it can be argued that it is fairer to distribute the adaptation cost based on cumulative emission levels, as this indicator does not have a time lag. this is the basis for cbdr scenario 3. knowing about climate change might not be sufficient to establish state responsibility. a more convincing argument is that countries could have acted from the moment they began to negotiate on how to address the problem. in the case of climate
What the data indicates from the error bars ?
does not represent variability or uncertainty
Define error bars ?
error bars on the data (crosses) are derived from spatial variability over the region
Write the sentences about Terrestrial data?
terrestrial data comes from palynological and biome estimates
discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper fig. 6. regional marine and terrestrial annual and warm/cold month mean data/model comparisons. comparison includes the calculated model 2 s derived from experiment 1 and 2 models regional averages. left column: experiment 1 terrestrial regions. middle column: experiment 2 terrestrial regions. right column: experiment 2 marine realm. error bars on the data (crosses) are derived from spatial variability over the region (i.e. does not represent variability or uncertainty). in the annual means the stars represent the modelled annual mean and the crosses the data. terrestrial data comes from palynological and biome estimates (salzmann et al., 2012). february and august sst estimates are derived from assemblage data, while annual mean sst data are mg/ca and alkenones estimates (dowsett et al., 2010, 2012).
What does the MCFA do?
the mcfa corrects the between group covariance matrix so that an unbiased between group factor structure is obtained
What does the SAQ measure in a work environment?
the saq measures six domains; including, teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, perceptions of management, stress recognition and working conditions
How do you determine the climate of a work environment?
to verify the single factor nature of the teamwork climate scale, we performed a multilevel confirmatory factor analysis (mcfa) to account for the nesting of individual caregivers within l&d units
measurements the saq measures six domains; including, teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, perceptions of management, stress recognition and working conditions. here, we report results from the teamwork climate domain. teamwork climate assesses how healthcare providers from the same work unit perceive the quality of collaboration between personnel in that unit. six of the 30 saq scale items define the teamwork climate domain, with the response scale ranging from 1 (disagree strongly) to 5 (agree strongly). statistical analysis to verify the single factor nature of the teamwork climate scale, we performed a multilevel confirmatory factor analysis (mcfa) to account for the nesting of individual caregivers within l&d units. the mcfa corrects the between group covariance matrix so that an unbiased between group factor structure is obtained.33,34using mplus code specified by dyer et al .,34we performed mcfas on the 6-item teamwork climate scale. a basic criterion required to adequately assess culture or climate constructs is that individual perceptions show high agreement within units (e.g., l&d units) and high variance between units.35
Why do the higher number of aerosols in the small size fractions contribute less mass, integrated over all the particles?
although there tends to be a higher number of aerosols in the small size fractions, they contribute less mass, integrated over all the particles, because of their small size figure 2
How is the impact of aerosols on various atmospheric and biochemical processes determined?
the impact of aerosols on various atmospheric and biochemical processes are determined by their number, size, volume, and composition figure 2 
What do aerosols vary widely on?
aerosols vary widely in their impact on climate and biogeochemistry because of substantial variability in their size, composition, and location in time and space
aerosols vary widely in their impact on climate and biogeochemistry because of substantial variability in their size, composition, and location in time and space. here, we describe in more detail some of the attributes of aerosols. the impact of aerosols on various atmospheric and biochemical processes are determined by their number, size, volume, and composition figure 2 ). one of the most important attributes of aerosols for both impacts and their atmospheric lifetime is the aerosol size figure 2 ). aerosols vary in size from a diameter of 1 nm up to 100 m m figure 2 ). particles with diameters less than 1 m m are fine aerosols and are divided into the aitken mode (diameter 0.1 m m) and the accumulation mode (diameter 0.1 m m and 1.0 m m), and particles greater than 1 m m comprise the coarse aerosols. coarse aerosols are usually primary aerosols, meaning they were directly emitted and are often entrained into the atmosphere by the wind [e.g., desert dust or sea-salt particles (18)]. in contrast, many anthropogenic aerosols occur in the fine mode. a substantial portion of fine aerosols are not emitted directly but are formed in the atmosphere (sometimes directly after high-temperature combustion). these secondary aerosols are discussed in more detail below. although there tends to be a higher number of aerosols in the small size fractions, they contribute less mass, integrated over all the particles, because of their small size figure 2 ). in terms of mass, coarse particles dominate figure 2 ). the aerosol composition is also variable table 1 ). some aerosols are solid crustal material, whereas others are in aqueous solution (e.g., sulfuric acid), and still others are a mixture of solids and liquids. characteristics of color, hygroscopicity, and chemical composition strongly determine the impacts of aerosols on climate and biogeochemistry, as described
What has our understanding of the climate system been revolutionized by?
our understanding of the climate system has been revolutionized recently, by the development of sophisticated computer models
What are the predictions of such models used for?
he predictions of such models are used to formulate international protocols, intended to mitigate the severity of global warming and its impacts
What is the purpose of this review paper?
the purpose of this review paper is to give a personal perspective of the current state of knowledge regarding the problem of unresolved scales in climate models
our understanding of the climate system has been revolutionized recently, by the development of sophisticated computer models. the predictions of such models are used to formulate international protocols, intended to mitigate the severity of global warming and its impacts. yet these models are not perfect representations of reality, because they remove from explicit consideration many physical processes which are known to be key aspects of the climate system, but which are too small or fast to be modelled. the purpose of this review paper is to give a personal perspective of the current state of knowledge regarding the problem of unresolved scales in climate models. a recent novel solution to the problem will be discussed, in which it is proposed, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the performance of models may be improved by adding random noise to represent the unresolved processes.
What is secondary sludge?
in the biological treatment processes, part of the organic matter is absorbed and converted into microbial biomass, generically called biological or secondary sludge
Why is the secondary sludge called biosolid?
this is principally composed of biological solids, and for this reason it is also called a biosolid
Biosolid is a term that hopes to achieve what goal?
the term 'biosolid' is a way of emphasising its beneficial aspects, giving more value to productive uses, in comparison with the mere final non-productive disposal by means of landfills or incineration
theterm' sludge 'hasbeenusedtodesignatethesolidbyproductsfromwastewater treatment. in the biological treatment processes, part of the organic matter is absorbed and converted into microbial biomass, generically called biological or secondary sludge. this is principally composed of biological solids, and for this reason it is also called a biosolid to adopt this term, it is still necessary that its chemical and biological characteristics are compatible with a productive use, such as for example in agriculture. the term 'biosolid' is a way of emphasising its beneficial aspects, giving more value to productive uses, in comparison with the mere final non-productive disposal by means of landfills or incineration.
What is know to males that are territorial?
although density dependence in genus gambelia or family crotaphytidae is not well studied, it is known that males are territorial
What breed of anime is density dependence well documented?
in general, density dependence in lizards is well documented
What was the population growth rate?
in this study, the population growth rate was 1.4 to 2.5 depending on the time period over which it is calculated and whether juveniles are included or not
density dependence although density dependence in genus gambelia or family crotaphytidae is not well studied, it is known that males are territorial113 - 116, and two instances of adult predation on hatchlings have been recorded116. in general, density dependence in lizards is well documented117 - 119; effects on both survival and fecundity have been noted, so our model includes effects on all stage matrix parameters. because the mechanism is often resource limitation, the model includes scramble (ricker) type density dependence. the maximum growth rate at low population size (rmax) was inferred from a study in which a population was monitored as it was growing from a small abundance116. in this study, the population growth rate was 1.4 to 2.5 depending on the time period over which it is calculated and whether juveniles are included or not.
In what relies an effective health-related response to floods?
in all forms of health-related response to floods, effective response relies not just on the technical means to protect health but crucially also on the flow of information and interaction between different actors and sectors
Which are some of the actors and institutions that need to foment dialogue and coordination between them to better response to floods?
policy-makers, agencies and communities
What type of information needs to be provided for the public, relating floods?
health and safety risks related to floods and on means of protection against those risks
in all forms of health-related response to floods, effective response relies not just on the technical means to protect health but crucially also on the flow of information and interaction between different actors and sectors. there needs to be greater dialogue and coordination between institutions and across scales: between policy-makers, agencies and communities in flood preparedness and emergency response. several aspects of this theme were raised during the workshop associated with this review project. information needs to be provided for the public on health and safety risks related to floods and on means of protection against those risks: this needs to be carefully targeted to its audience to maximise its effect. access to operational information and evaluations of intervention programmes should be improved to promote transparency, accountability and lesson-learning. community involvement in decision-making should be maximised wherever possible, and the development of community-based emergency management should be encouraged. researchers too should seek to be pro-actively involved both at the micro-scale (e.g. in aiding local disease surveillance) and at the macro-scale in engaging with national decision-makers and international donors on issues related to floods and health risks, and the impacts of climate change.
In Which year The California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change study was conducted?
the california research at the nexus of air quality and climate change (calnex) field study was conducted throughout california in may, june and july of 2010
What are the issues relevant to the atmospheric pollution and climate change?
the study was organized to address issues simultaneously relevant to atmospheric pollution and climate change, including (1) emission inventory assessment, (2) atmospheric transport and dispersion, (3) atmospheric chemical processing, and (4) cloud-aerosol interactions and aerosol radiative effects
What  are the Climate-relevant include in the CalNex?
climate-relevant findings from calnex include leakage from natural gas infrastructure may account for the excess of observed methane over emission estimates in los angeles
the california research at the nexus of air quality and climate change (calnex) field study was conducted throughout california in may, june and july of 2010. the study was organized to address issues simultaneously relevant to atmospheric pollution and climate change, including (1) emission inventory assessment, (2) atmospheric transport and dispersion, (3) atmospheric chemical processing, and (4) cloud-aerosol interactions and aerosol radiative effects. measurements from networks of ground sites, a research ship, tall towers, balloon-borne ozonesondes, multiple aircraft, and satellites provided insitu and remotely sensed data on trace pollutant and greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol chemical composition and microphysical properties, cloud microphysics, and meteorological parameters. this overview report provides operational information for the variety of sites, platforms, and measurements, their joint deployment strategy, and summarizes findings that have resulted from the collaborative analyses of the calnex field study. climate-relevant findings from calnex include leakage from natural gas infrastructure may account for the excess of observed methane over emission estimates in los angeles. air-quality relevant findings include the significant decline in mobile fleet voc and nox emissions continues to have an impact on ozone in the los angeles basin; the relative contributions of diesel and gasoline emission to secondary organic aerosol are not fully understood; and nighttime no3 chemistry contributes significantly to secondary organic aerosol mass. findings simultaneously relevant to climate and air quality include marine vessel emissions changes due to fuel sulfur and speed controls result in a net warming effect, but have substantial positive impacts on local air quality.
Which region had the greatest land cover change
india
Which region had the greatest tree loss
india
Which region had the next largest decrease in latent heat flux after India
europe
statistical significance in differences between current day and potential vegetation experiments are shown as: n neither test has significance >= 0.95; t student t-test has significance >= 0.95; w wilcoxon signed rank test has significance >= 0.95; and b both tests have significance >= 0.95 the regional analysis reflected the all land analysis with all regions having decreased latent heat flux with the current day parameters. india with the greatest land cover change, tree loss and decrease in lai, had the largest decrease in latent heat flux, with an annual average reduction of 9.59 w/m2. the decrease in indian latent heat flux was largest in the late dry season (mam), and smallest in the early monsoon (jja). europe had the next largest decrease in latent heat flux, with an annual average reduction of 4.93
Who assisted in the field by marking seals and collecting resights?
the australian national antarctic research expeditions (anare) to macquarie island from 1993-2002 that so ably assisted us in the field by marking seals and collecting resights in often miserable conditions
Who approved and permitted all aspects of this research at Macquarie Island?
the australian antarctic animal ethics committee (aas 2265) and the tasmanian parks and wildlife service approved and permitted all aspects of this research at macquarie island
Who provided insightful comments and assistance with the autocorrelation analysis?
we also thank dr graeme hays for his insightful comments and assistance with the autocorrelation analysis
we are indebted to our colleagues of all the australian national antarctic research expeditions (anare) to macquarie island from 1993-2002 that so ably assisted us in the field by marking seals and collecting resights in often miserable conditions. the australian antarctic animal ethics committee (aas 2265) and the tasmanian parks and wildlife service approved and permitted all aspects of this research at macquarie island. we would like to express our sincere gratitude to two anonymous reviewers for their positive and constructive comments that have improved the manuscript. we also thank dr graeme hays for his insightful comments and assistance with the autocorrelation analysis.
What are the Dorset Heathlands prone to?
they are prone to fires
What is the likely result of exacerbated Heathland fires?
and this risk is likely to increase with climate change, causing habitat loss and putting the fire rescue service under considerable pressure
What was the aim of Join Interim Planning Framework agreed in 2007?
it seeks to secure developer contributions toward funding the implementation of a package of mitigation measures to offset the adverse effects of additional residential development on the heathlands. the framework applies to all new housing that results in a net gain in dwelling units within a zone between 400m and 5km of designated european wildlife sites, and no development is permitted within a 400m buffer around heathland sites
the dorset heathlands cover an extensive area of south east dorset, england, and are fragmented by urban development and other land uses. heathlands are an important habitat and are protected by european-level designations. they are prone to fires, and this risk is likely to increase with climate change, causing habitat loss and putting the fire rescue service under considerable pressure. development nearby protected sites significantly increases the risk of fires and other negative impacts on the heath such as loss of biodiversity. with these issues in mind, a joint interim planning framework was agreed in 2007 by south east dorset local authorities to cover all protected heathland across south east dorset. it seeks to secure developer contributions toward funding the implementation of a package of mitigation measures to offset the adverse effects of additional residential development on the heathlands. the framework applies to all new housing that results in a net gain in dwelling units within a zone between 400m and 5km of designated european wildlife sites, and no development is permitted within a 400m buffer around heathland sites.
What will be represented by the Zeros?
these zeros represent corner solutions rather than a negative latent value, linear models should produce consistent estimates of the partial effects of interest near its mean value
When was it estimated by the mass at zero?
we further probe this by estimating two-part models, which formally accommodate the mass at zero when it represents a corner solution by separately modeling the extensive and intensive margins
what are the restriction relaxed by sum at zero?
we also relax the constraint that the coefficients across activities sum to zero, so it also tests this restriction
as previously mentioned, we have a large mass of observations at zero. since these zeros represent corner solutions rather than a negative latent value, linear models should produce consistent estimates of the partial effects of interest near its mean value. we further probe this by estimating two-part models, which formally accommodate the mass at zero when it represents a corner solution by separately modeling the extensive and intensive margins.27in estimating this model, we also relax the constraint that the coefficients across activities sum to zero, so it also tests this restriction.28shown in figure 6, the results from the two-part model are
How does Hydrologists use mathematical models for hydrological processes?
hydrologists are very attentive in the development and use of mathematical models for hydrological processes, particularly if these models are to be applied for prediction of future events. they use several indices to assess the prediction skill of their models, and they evaluate the indices not only in the model calibration period, but also in a separate validation period, whose data were not used in the calibration (the split-sample technique, klemes, 1986
What are these studies based on?
all these studies are essentially based on the explicit or tacit assumptions that climate is deterministically predictable in the long term and that the climate models (or general circulation models, gcms) can give credible predictions of future climate for horizons of 50, 100 or more years (e.g. alcamo et al ., 2007
How credible is use of statistical downscaling methods in hydrological studies?
the widespread use of statistical downscaling methods in hydrological studies may be viewed as an indirect falsification of the reliability of climatic models: for this downscaling refers in essence to techniques that modify the climate model outputs in an area of interest in order to reduce their large departures from historical observations in the area, rather than techniques to scale down the coarse-gridded gcm outputs to finer scales
de la credibilite des previsions climatiques resume des previsions distribuees dans l'espace du climat futur, obtenues a l'aide de modeles climatiques, sont largement utilisees en hydrologie et dans de nombreuses autres disciplines, en general sans evaluation de leur confiance. nous comparons ici les sorties de plusieurs modeles aux observations de temperature et de precipitation de huit stations reparties sur la planete qui disposent de longues chroniques (plus de 100 ans). les resultats montrent que les modeles ont de faibles performances, y compris a une echelle climatique (30 ans). les projections locales des modelisations ne peuvent donc pas etre credibles, alors que l'argument courant selon lequel les modeles ont de meilleures performances a des echelles spatiales plus larges n'est pas verifie. mots clefs modeles climatiques; modeles de circulation generale; falsifiabilite; changement climatique; climat de hurst-kolmogorov hydrologists are very attentive in the development and use of mathematical models for hydrological processes, particularly if these models are to be applied for prediction of future events. they use several indices to assess the prediction skill of their models, and they evaluate the indices not only in the model calibration period, but also in a separate validation period, whose data were not used in the calibration (the split-sample technique, klemes, 1986). long prediction horizons, such as 50 or 100 years, are very common in engineering hydrological applications, as these are the lifetime periods of major engineering works. traditionally, in such cases, deterministic models and approaches, which are good for prediction horizons of some hours to a few days, are replaced by probabilistic and stochastic approaches. to the authors' knowledge, no attempt to cast longterm hydrological predictions based on deterministic hydrological approaches has ever been made. on the other hand, in recent decades, numerous hydrological studies have attempted to cast projections of the impacts of hypothesized anthropogenic climate change on freshwater resources and their management, adaptation and vulnerabilities (kundzewicz et al ., 2008). all these studies are essentially based on the explicit or tacit assumptions that climate is deterministically predictable in the long term and that the climate models (or general circulation models, gcms) can give credible predictions of future climate for horizons of 50, 100 or more years (e.g. alcamo et al ., 2007). less effort has been put into falsifying or verifying such assumptions. however, the widespread use of statistical downscaling methods in hydrological studies may be viewed as an indirect falsification of the reliability of climatic models: for this downscaling refers in essence to techniques that modify the climate model outputs in an area of interest in order to reduce their large departures from historical observations in the area, rather than techniques to scale down the coarse-gridded gcm outputs to finer scales.
How does melting glaciers affect water systems?
glacial melt provides the freshwater resources vital for certain ecosystems, particularly in arid areas of the himalayas and during critical periods from the dry season to monsoon (table 1
What is the imapact of glacial retreat?
the glacial retreat caused glacial-melt runoff to increase by more than 5.5% in the 1990s in northwest china and by 13% in glaciated tarim basins in the past decade (yao et al. 2004
What is the impact of warmer climates ?
the impact of warmer climates on the melt from snow-fed basins has been converse to the impact on glacier-fed basins: snow-fed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in the availability of water due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt (singh and bengtsson 2005). most scenarios, however, suggest a water scarcity even of catastrophic proportions by the 2050s resulting from population growth, climatic change, and the increase of water consumption (oki 2003
glacial melt provides the freshwater resources vital for certain ecosystems, particularly in arid areas of the himalayas and during critical periods from the dry season to monsoon (table 1). the supply of water resources, or the snow and ice meltwater component, in large river basins is projected to increase over the following decades as perennial snow and ice decrease. the glacial retreat caused glacial-melt runoff to increase by more than 5.5% in the 1990s in northwest china and by 13% in glaciated tarim basins in the past decade (yao et al. 2004). the impact of warmer climates on the melt from snow-fed basins has been converse to the impact on glacier-fed basins: snow-fed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in the availability of water due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt (singh and bengtsson 2005). most scenarios, however, suggest a water scarcity even of catastrophic proportions by the 2050s resulting from population growth, climatic change, and the increase of water consumption (oki 2003).
Is "Conejero and Etxebarria, this issue" given in the reference list?
conejero and etxebarria, this issue" is not given in the reference list
Is "Rim'e, in this issue" given in the reference list?
rim'e, in this issue" is not given in the reference list
Is "CIS, 2003a," "CIS, 2003b," and "de Rivera, 2006" cited in the text?
cis, 2003a," "cis, 2003b," and "de rivera, 2006" are not cited in the text
queries q1 author: please note that "rim'e, in this issue" is not given in the reference list. kindly provide details of the same. q2 author: please note that "conejero and etxebarria, this issue" is not given in the reference list. kindly provide details of the same. q3 author: please note that "kayangara et al., this issue" is not given in the reference list. kindly provide details of the same. q4 author: please note that "cis, 2003a," "cis, 2003b," and "de rivera, 2006" are not cited in the text. kindly insert their citations at appropriate places in the text. q5 author: kindly update "de rivera, 2006" if possible. 338
How many regional configurations are in the set provided over West Africa?
ten
How many regional models are provided over West Africa?
eight
What is the period of time that this set is based in?
1990-2005
we use era-interim dataset (era-i; simmons et al 2007 which consists of a set of gridded global analyses describing the state of the atmosphere and land and oceanwave conditions from 1989 to date. in this study, we use the data covering the 1990-2000 period at the daily timescale. to facilitate intercomparisons, we perform a bilinear interpolation of era-i data to obtain interpolated values at each of the 12 synoptic stations. 2.2. ensembles regional simulations a coherent multi-model experiment has been performed throughout the ensembles project (van der linden and mitchell 2009 ). a set of ten regional configurations with eight regional models are provided over west africa using the era-i reanalysis as lateral boundary conditions over the 1990-2005 period. the use of the same boundary conditions makes possible the evaluation of each regional configuration. regional climate outputs are freely available at daily timescale at 50 km for the amma region (christensen et al 2009 ). for our purpose, we use nine regional configurations:
What does human capital represent?
human capital is also represented by hiv prevalence this indicator was added given the high prevalence levels in south africa. the assumption is that higher prevalence rates reduce adaptive capacity
What impacts major development?
the major development issue facing sub-saharan africa." the epidemic deepens poverty, reverses human development achievements, worsens gender inequalities, erodes the ability of governments to maintain essential services, reduces labour productivity and supply, and puts a brake on economic growth
What are the abilities of government?
the major development issue facing sub-saharan africa." the epidemic deepens poverty, reverses human development achievements, worsens gender inequalities, erodes the ability of governments to maintain essential services, reduces labour productivity and supply, and puts a brake on economic growth
human capital is also represented by hiv prevalence this indicator was added given the high prevalence levels in south africa. the assumption is that higher prevalence rates reduce adaptive capacity. drimie (2002) states that hiv/aids is ". the major development issue facing sub-saharan africa." the epidemic deepens poverty, reverses human development achievements, worsens gender inequalities, erodes the ability of governments to maintain essential services, reduces labour productivity and supply, and puts a brake on economic growth. further, hiv/aids has been cited among the main drivers of food insecurity and poverty in rural southern africa, undermining family structures and creating increasingly vulnerable and socially unstable communities (misselhorn, 2005).
Who do the authors thank for their comments and suggestions?
associate editor paul bliese, two anonymous reviewers, and the seminar participants at university of maryland, city university of hong kong, george mason university, and university of notre dame
How was the authors' research supported financially?
a research grant from the hes-so, switzerland, and in part by summer research grants from the center for excellence in service (ces) and the center for leadership, innovation and change (clic) at the university of maryland's robert h. smith school of business
Where can comments concerning the authors' paper be addressed?
to steffen raub, ecole hoteliere de lausanne (ehl), le chalet-a-gobet, ch 1000 lausanne 25, switzerland. email: steffen.raub@ehl.ch
author note: we thank associate editor paul bliese, two anonymous reviewers, and the seminar participants at university of maryland, city university of hong kong, george mason university, and university of notre dame for helpful comments and suggestions. we would also like to extend special thanks to jeff edwards and adam grant for the inspiration they provided. we are grateful to the rezidor hotel group for participating in this research and in particular to jan spooren for invaluable help during the data collection process. an earlier version of the paper was presented at the 2009 annual meeting of the academy of management in chicago. the research was supported in part by a research grant from the hes-so, switzerland, and in part by summer research grants from the center for excellence in service (ces) and the center for leadership, innovation and change (clic) at the university of maryland's robert h. smith school of business. correspondence concerning this paper can be addressed to steffen raub, ecole hoteliere de lausanne (ehl), le chalet-a-gobet, ch 1000 lausanne 25, switzerland. email: steffen.raub@ehl.ch 2
What happens when mixed-layer ocean models of atmosphere combine?
when coupled atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models respond to imposed perturbations in atmospheric concentrations of "greenhouse gases" (most commonly co2), they predict changes in equilibrium global mean surface temperature that can differ by as much as a factor of 2 or more (cubasch et al. 2001
What responses did the models used to simulate the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum produce?
the surface temperature changes are, of course, only one facet of the richly complex climatic response, and the interactions among multiple nonlinear processes make it difficult to identify the factors most responsible for the climatic changes simulated by models. uncovering the reasons for different responses in different models is equally difficult
What do we look for with these climate studies?
in spite of these challenges, we seek to reduce uncertainty in predictions of future climate change, which, at the very least, requires us to identify the processes that most directly lead to the spread of responses. as in the analysis of many complex physical systems, a useful first step is to consider which processes are energetically dominant. it is unlikely, after all, that a process that only weakly affects the energy flow and storage
when coupled atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models respond to imposed perturbations in atmospheric concentrations of "greenhouse gases" (most commonly co2), they predict changes in equilibrium global mean surface temperature that can differ by as much as a factor of 2 or more (cubasch et al. 2001). likewise, models used to simulate the climate of the last glacial maximum produce a range of responses (masson et al. 2006). the surface temperature changes are, of course, only one facet of the richly complex climatic response, and the interactions among multiple nonlinear processes make it difficult to identify the factors most responsible for the climatic changes simulated by models. uncovering the reasons for different responses in different models is equally difficult. in spite of these challenges, we seek to reduce uncertainty in predictions of future climate change, which, at the very least, requires us to identify the processes that most directly lead to the spread of responses. as in the analysis of many complex physical systems, a useful first step is to consider which processes are energetically dominant. it is unlikely, after all, that a process that only weakly affects the energy flow and storage
What are the observed changes in the first table of contents section?
in climate and their effects
What is the draft embargoed from?
coverage by the news media
What is the fourth table of contents section?
adaptation and mitigation options
note: this draft should not be cited, quoted or distributed other than for the purposes of a managed government review. it is embargoed from coverage by the news media. draft prepared by: draft prepared by: lenny bernstein, peter bosch, osvaldo canziani, zhenlin chen, renate christ, ogunlade davidson, william hare, saleemul huq, david karoly, vladimir kattsov, zbigniew kundzewicz, jian liu, ulrike lohmann, martin manning, taroh matsuno, bettina menne, bert metz, monirul mirza, neville nicholls, leonard nurse, rajendra pachauri, jean palutikof, martin parry, dahe qin, nijavalli ravindranath, andy reisinger, jiawen ren, keywan riahi, cynthia rosenzweig, matilde rusticucci, stephen schneider, youba sokona, susan solomon, peter stott, ronald stouffer, taishi sugiyama, rob swart, dennis tirpak, coleen vogel, gary yohe date of draft: 31 august 2007 table of contents: 1. observed changes in climate and their effects 2 2. causes of change 6 3. projected climate change and its impacts 8 4. adaptation and mitigation options 14 5. the long-term perspective 18 6. robust findings, key uncertainties 22 references in curly brackets in this summary for policymakers refer to sections, tables and figures in the longer report of the synthesis report.
In addition to testing the prediction about affective mediation, what is the other purpose of the article? it also has a methodological objective.
in addition to testing the prediction about affective mediation, the paper also has a methodological aim
In that case what can happen with the interpretations? Misleading interpretations can happen
in that case, misleading interpretations might be made, and combining the two kinds of investigation in an overall review would yield inappropriate conclusions
How is the climate usually seen? It is often seen as a characteristic of an entire organization or sub-organization
climate has typically been viewed as characteristic of an entire organization or sub-organization
in addition to testing the prediction about affective mediation, the paper also has a methodological aim. it is possible that studies which measure climate merely through the perceptions of managers generate results that differ from those examining a wider sample of employees. in that case, misleading interpretations might be made, and combining the two kinds of investigation in an overall review would yield inappropriate conclusions. the literature appears to have ignored this possibility. climate has typically been viewed as characteristic of an entire organization or sub-organization, apparently requiring measurement through the perceptions of a broad range of employees. for instance, wilderom et al (2000, p. 207) argued that "it seems crucial that researchers investigate organizational members who are representative of all the ... levels of the organization". with that in mind, early questionnaires (e.g. payne and pheysey, 1971) were explicitly designed for completion by employees of all kinds. however, more recent investigators have often derived climate scores from managers alone. for instance, gordon and ditomaso (1992) studied company performance as a function of perceptions by the top four or five levels of management. they recognized that "management ... is clearly not a representative sample of the employees in the companies" (p. 788). however, it was argued that, because of managers' greater influence over work processes, "culture measured at this level will be most predictive of future behaviour and performance of the firm" (p. 789). top managers only were studied by peters and waterman (1982), and a similar restriction was applied by gordon (1985), kotter and heskett (1992), sheridan (1992), denison (2001), denison and mishra (1995) and weber (1996), in each case excluding climate perceptions by non-managerial employees. there is evidence that managers' perceptions of their organization's climate tend to be there is evidence that managers' perceptions of their organization's climate tend to be more positive than perceptions by non-managers (payne and mansfield, 1973). however, we have located no empirical comparisons between the predictive strength of climate measures obtained from these two groups. despite the apparent importance of assessing experience widely across the work-force, there are two arguments for the possibly greater predictive value of managerial perceptions. first, it might be the case that managers' roles within a company provide them with more wide-ranging evidence on which to base their assessments of climate. whereas most non-managers necessarily have a perspective restricted to their own area of work, senior staff are often able to make more wide-ranging judgments. managers' perceptions of the company's climate may thus be based on more comprehensive
What is the first source referenced in the paragraph?
jetz et al.66classified
What is numerical value prior to "*grid cell" in the paragraph?
0.5
What is the third referenced source in the paragraph?
hof et al.164used
most predictive models of biodiversity change currently simply consider one driver or combined effects of multiple drivers in very crude ways. for example, an analysis by jetz et al.66classified land cover for each global 0.5*grid cell as changing either due to human land use or due to climate change, with subsequent effects on biodiversity proportional to the amount of original habitat cover lost. a study by thomas et al.72considering species' extinction risks from climate change used bioclimate models to estimate future areas of climatic suitability, exploring the upper and lower boundaries of species' ability to reach them by assuming infinite or zero dispersal. hof et al.164used bioclimate models to compare spatial overlap in projected extinctions from climate change, projected land use changes and the incidence of chytrid fungus. such frameworks may be useful for considering the combined (additive) effects between land use and climate change, but are clearly not appropriate to investigate interaction effects.
What are two of the main variables in studying the climate/ocean observations?
we focus on changes in surface wind and subsurface ocean temperature, two variables closely related by robust ocean dynamics
How long has research been being analyzed and collected?
the present study revisits regional patterns of tropical indo-pacific climate change by using a suite of independent historical datasets over the last six decades with careful quality controls and bias corrections
What was a major finding?
a major finding of the present study is that the zonal contrast of equatorial subsurface temperature in the tropical indopacific has significantly weakened in response to surface wind changes associated with a weakened walker circulation
under such controversies, it is necessary to examine physical consistencies among independent ocean- atmosphere observations with careful consideration of error/bias characteristics of each dataset. the present study revisits regional patterns of tropical indo-pacific climate change by using a suite of independent historical datasets over the last six decades with careful quality controls and bias corrections. besides a synthesis of sst, slp, cloudiness, and rainfall datasets, we focus on changes in surface wind and subsurface ocean temperature, two variables closely related by robust ocean dynamics. we illustrate a robust ocean response to observed surface wind changes by ocean model hindcasts. despite the fact that limited instrumental records still make it difficult to attribute observed changes to external forcing or natural variability, it is important to describe these changes for validation of climate models that are used for future climate projection. this methodology for pattern detection proves to be successful for the tropical atlantic climate change (tokinaga and xie 2011b). a major finding of the present study is that the zonal contrast of equatorial subsurface temperature in the tropical indopacific has significantly weakened in response to surface wind changes associated with a weakened walker circulation. regarding the cause of atmospheric circulation change, we also examine sst warming patterns and uncertainties by comparison of the sst and nighttime marine air temperature reconstructions. the rest of this paper is organized as follows. section 2 introduces data and model used in the present study. sections 3 and 4 investigate regional patterns of observed climate change over the tropical pacific, the maritime continent, and the tropical indian ocean, incorporating ocean model simulations. section 5 discusses possible biases of reanalysis products and sst reconstructions for studies of tropical climate change. section 6 is a summary.
Who passed away?
we would like to acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the late dr. raymond j. o'connor, professor of wildlife ecology at the university of maine
What was he doing?
professor of wildlife ecology at the university of maine
Who produced the report?
we would like to thank david gerratt of dg communications for his tremendous effort in producing this report
we would like to acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the late dr. raymond j. o'connor, professor of wildlife ecology at the university of maine, for support of this effort and his research toward understanding the distributional patterns of birds in current and changing landscapes. we thank nicole nitsche, allison carr, emily chambliss, ilana cohen, rebecca cohen, katharine lake, joanne o'donnell, and gitte venicx for their excellent production and administrative assistance. we would like to thank david gerratt of dg communications for his tremendous effort in producing this report. the production of this report was made possible through the generous support of davis conservation foundation, the energy foundation, henry p. kendall foundation, mertz gilmore foundation, oak foundation, orchard foundation, the scherman foundation, inc., wallace global fund, and wallace research foundation. support for components of the underlying research upon which this report is based was provided to katharine hayhoe by the union of concerned scientists.
What is the objective of the narrator in the first paragraph?
our aim was to determine future occurrences of five phlebotomus spp. with spreading tendencies in the face of a changing climate
What are sandflies for?
these sandflies serve as proven or assumed p. mascittii vectors of leishmania infantum causing the leishmaniasis
What is the first step towards an accurate and efficient risk assessment of vector-borne diseases?
knowledge concerning the potential future presence of disease vectors is a first step towards an accurate and efficient risk assessment of vector-borne diseases
our aim was to determine future occurrences of five phlebotomus spp. with spreading tendencies in the face of a changing climate. these sandflies serve as proven or assumed p. mascittii vectors of leishmania infantum causing the leishmaniasis. knowledge concerning the potential future presence of disease vectors is a first step towards an accurate and efficient risk assessment of vector-borne diseases conventional static bioclimatic niche modelling can be extended by novel avenues for instance regarding speciesspecific abilities to disperse therefore, we integrated speciesspecific dispersal pathways to the detected climatically suitable habitats. within this study, we focus on active and natural dispersal of the species and excluded potential human assistance for range expansions, for instance via the transport of subtropical plants containing eggs or larvae in the moist substrate. however, these effects are not clearly understood and hence not included in this analysis. the results of this study represent the minimum range expansion of phlebotomus spp. that is only related to active and natural movement in a changing environment without potential human-assistance. our results suggest that the development of central european climate will increasingly support suitable habitats for phlebotomine sandflies. this general trend will become even more pronounced in the second half of the 21stcentury. we project sandfly establishment in formerly non-endemic areas. this will additionally increase the risk of emerging sandfly-borne diseases in central europe such as leishmaniasis. nevertheless, it is unlikely that sandflies will reach and occupy the provided climatically suitable habitats entirely. during the upcoming years, a spatial focus of surveillance regarding potential new-establishment of phlebotomus spp with current south-(western) focus of distribution should be directed for western parts of the german state ''north rhine-westphalia''. these species may additionally occupy the regions around the ''lake constance'' (southern part of germany and northern part of switzerland). furthermore, switzerland must be aware on potential sandfly occurrences around the river valley of the ''aare'' and the ''lac de' neucha^tel'' already within some years. in austria, especially the south-eastern states ''carinthia'', ''styria'' and ''burgenland'' seem to be at risk by new-infestations due to the spreading tendencies of p. mascittii and p. ariasi in the case of sandfly species with current south (-eastern) focus of
what does the table displays?
the table below displays the outcomes of a multivariate logit model on the impact of variables age, gender, marital status, origin location and rainfall upon the likelihood of an individual undertaking migration within the emiub data
what factors are shown for migration?
age and gender (using males as the reference category) are shown to be highly significant determinants of migration while marital status shows significance above the 0.05 level
state some example?
for example, the odds of a male migrating rurally are 60% higher if the rainfall conditions in the previous years were unfavourable than if they were normal; yet the reverse is true for migration to urban areas and foreign countries. this behaviour was hypothesised to be consistent with the idea that rainfall deficits and subsequent bad harvests act to limit ability to invest in longdistance and costly migration
multivariate analysis the table below displays the outcomes of a multivariate logit model on the impact of variables age, gender, marital status, origin location and rainfall upon the likelihood of an individual undertaking migration within the emiub data. age and gender (using males as the reference category) are shown to be highly significant determinants of migration while marital status shows significance above the 0.05 level. while origin locations are also seen to be significant to the 0.05 level (using ouagadougou as the reference category), rainfall variability (using dry conditions as the reference category) is not seen to have a significant impact upon migration. however, this is to be expected from the analysis of henry et al22 who found that the sign of the relationship between migration and rainfall variability varied with the type of migration undertaken, yet remained statistically significant for both short and long distance migrations. in particular, henry et al22 showed that the significance of the relationship between rainfall variability and migration increased from p 0.20 when the analysis was not broken down into different types of migration to p 0.05 when the analysis considered the nature of migration as to rural, urban and international destinations. furthermore, the sign of the relationship was seen to vary with gender and type of migration. for example, the odds of a male migrating rurally are 60% higher if the rainfall conditions in the previous years were unfavourable than if they were normal; yet the reverse is true for migration to urban areas and foreign countries. this behaviour was hypothesised to be consistent with the idea that rainfall deficits and subsequent bad harvests act to limit ability to invest in longdistance and costly migration. henry et al22 also found that individuals are more likely to migrate rurally in locations where rainfall is scarce than for locations where rainfall is greater. the authors attribute this to a strategy to diversify incomes in a risky environment.
What is the importance of a post-treatment stage for the effluents generated in anaerobic reactors?
this stage has the purpose of polishing not only the microbiological quality of the effluents, in view of the public health risks and limitations imposed on the use of treated effluents in agriculture, but also the quality in terms of organic matter and nutrients
Where would the post-treatment of anaerobic reactors take place?
the brazilian national research programme
What overall is trying to be discovered by the post treatment stage?
the environmental damages caused by the discharges of the remaining loads of these components into the receiving bodies
taking into consideration the intrinsic limitations associated with the anaerobic systemsandtheneedtodeveloptechnologiesthataremoreappropriatetothereality of developing countries, it is important to include a post-treatment stage for the effluents generated in anaerobic reactors. this stage has the purpose of polishing not only the microbiological quality of the effluents, in view of the public health risks and limitations imposed on the use of treated effluents in agriculture, but also the quality in terms of organic matter and nutrients, in view of the environmental damages caused by the discharges of the remaining loads of these components into the receiving bodies. considering that the treatment line consisting of anaerobic reactors posttreatment units is an important alternative for developing countries, the main progresses achieved on this subject by the brazilian national research programme post-treatment of effluents from anaerobic reactors 811 on basic sanitation, prosab (chernicharo et al. 2001c) are presented in this chapter. the main aspects of the most important post-treatment alternatives being applied in brazil are herein discussed.
What should communicators keep in mind?
communicators should keep in mind both form and content when framing a climate change message
What is the first step?
the first step, as explained in section 1, is determining as much as possible about an audience's mental models of climate change
What is the second step?
the next step is to consider the audience's membership in specific subcultures (groups of people with distinct sets of beliefs, or based on race, ethnicity, class, age, gender, religion, occupation). is there a majority represented in the audience
communicators should keep in mind both form and content when framing a climate change message. the first step, as explained in section 1, is determining as much as possible about an audience's mental models of climate change. the next step is to consider the audience's membership in specific subcultures (groups of people with distinct sets of beliefs, or based on race, ethnicity, class, age, gender, religion, occupation). is there a majority represented in the audience? for instance, will college students concerned about the creation of green jobs comprise the audience? or city officials interested in increasing energy efficiency standards in building codes? consider the local perspective--an audience in colorado may identify more strongly with the links between climate change and threats to the ski industry, whereas a group from florida may care more about the links between climate change and sea level rise. communicators may find it useful to prepare numerous frames ahead of time, including climate change as a religious, youth, or economic issue. they should be
According to this passage ,what is we discovered that?
we discovered that, when we are certain about how the system will change in the future
How the optimal timing of relocation is affected strongly?
the optimal timing of relocation is strongly affected by the suitability of the destination site, kd, relative to the source site, ks, the relocation survival rate
How we increase the difference?
an increase in this difference (fig. 2d) increases the time at which the source carrying capacity falls below that of the destination t 11 7 yr
we discovered that, when we are certain about how the system will change in the future, the optimal timing of relocation is strongly affected by the suitability of the destination site, kd, relative to the source site, ks, the relocation survival rate, ph (fig. 2), and the intrinsic growth rate of the population in both the destination and source sites. if the relocation survival rate is high ph 0 95), then regardless of the number of individuals in the population, n we should not move our threatened species until the carrying capacity in the source population, ks, is less than that in the destination, kd (fig. 2b,e,h). a small difference in the maximum carrying capacities leads to an early crossing point of the two habitat models (fig. 2a, t 7 2 yr) and a correspondingly early optimal relocation time (fig. 2b). an increase in this difference (fig. 2d) increases the time at which the source carrying capacity falls below that of the destination t 11 7 yr),
What indicates how much water soil can hold?
the water capacity of soil indicates how much water it can hold
What does the sample include?
the sample includes districts with no access to surface water; these are farming areas that depend exclusively on groundwater
What is the most profitable option for farmers?
the potential to sell agricultural land for urban development is often the most profitable option for farmers
the sample includes districts with no access to surface water; these are farming areas that depend exclusively on groundwater.30the coefficient on groundwater depth is negative, suggesting that greater depth is less desirable as it results in higher pumping cost. however, the coefficient is not statistically significant. soil variables have intuitive signs; yet only the variable clay content is statistically significant at conventional levels. higher clay percentages are undesirable as they imply drainage problems, especially in the west side of the central valley. higher values of the variable kfactor indicate increasing erodibility of the top soil. the water capacity of soil indicates how much water it can hold. while a large water capacity is good for dryland farming where the water should stay in the root zone, it can be damaging in irrigated agriculture as it indicates drainage problems. the fraction of soil that is considered top soil has a beneficial effect on farmland values. finally, as expected, population density has a strong influence on land prices: this variable is significant and of a large magnitude compared to the sample mean. the potential to sell agricultural land for urban development is often the most profitable option for farmers. hedonic regressions rely on a cross-section and hence are prone to misspecification and
What causes changes in rice production?
rice production has always been impacted by different stresses, including environmental
What is the nature of system in  Adaptation to climate change in rice production ?
adaptation to climate change in rice production systems is complex
rice production has always been impacted by different stresses, including environmental - and has looked for ways to manage these. climate change adaptation requires more than simply maintaining the current level of performance from the rice production sector, but rather developing a set of responses that allow the sector to improve performance under the changing conditions climate change implies. adaptation to climate change in rice production systems is complex and must involve a range of environmental, social and economic factors. it must also involve creative financial and technological factors such as better understanding and application of indigenous knowledge and coping strategies.
What does a perfect-model approach imply?
compare results to the "virtual reality" (big-brother) instead of the observed reality
What is the requirement for enabling us to use the idealized framework?
make sure the arp50 simulation is realistic enough
What regional climate modeling resolution is considered a relevant reference over Europe?
the state of the art in regional climate modeling at a resolution 50 km over europe provides a relevant reference
although the so called perfect-model approach implies to compare results to the "virtual reality" (big-brother) instead of the observed reality, it would make little sense if the big-brother's simulated climate were too different from the observed one. consequently, we first need to make sure the arp50 simulation is realistic enough to enable the use of an idealised framework. we do so by comparing arp50 to the cru2.1 climatology above-mentioned. such a validation involves 4 the choice of a benchmark setting the level of differences to the climatology which are acceptable regarding this matter. the state of the art in regional climate modeling at a resolution 50 km over europe provides a relevant reference.
What is a major concern surrounding climate change, internationally?
a major concern surrounding climate change is that, owing to the potential effects and disruptions noted above, increased tensions and conflict among nations or cultures may occur in the international system
Share  one such concern due to climate change mentioned in the paragraph, as  described by Postel?
a case in point, described by postel (2000, 46-47), is the prospect for increased international competition for water as populations grow rapidly in a number of waterscarce regions
Mention some of the "hot-spots of water dispute" in the world?
in what she describes as "hot-spots of water dispute" the aral sea region, the ganges, the jordan, the nile, and the tigris-euphrates, populations of the nations within these basins are projected to grow
a major concern surrounding climate change is that, owing to the potential effects and disruptions noted above, increased tensions and conflict among nations or cultures may occur in the international system. a case in point, described by postel (2000, 46-47), is the prospect for increased international competition for water as populations grow rapidly in a number of waterscarce regions. in what she describes as "hot-spots of water dispute" the aral sea region, the ganges, the jordan, the nile, and the tigris-euphrates, populations of the nations within these basins are projected to grow 32-71 per cent by 2025. if water sharing agreements are not found, she warns, "competition could lead to regional instability or even conflict" (postel 2000, 47). homer-dixon, boutwell, and rathjens (1993), meanwhile, have attempted to explore systematically the relationships between environmental degradation and political conflict, concluding that:
What should nations do regarding climate change, according to the Stern Review?
undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions
What does an examination of the Review's radical revision of the economics of climate change find?
that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near-zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function
What will the Stern Review's unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action not survive?
the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today's marketplace real interest rates and savings rates
how much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming? the stern review argues that the damages from climate change are large, and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. an examination of the review 's radical revision of the economics of climate change finds, however, that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near-zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function. the review 's unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today's marketplace real interest rates and savings rates.
What does discount mean in climate change?
discounting is a factor in climate-change policy - indeed in all investment decisions -that involves the relative weight of future and present payoffs. at first blush, this area would seem a technicality
How does the discount review work?
unfortunately, it cannot be buried in a footnote, for discounting is the central to the radical revision the review proposes ethical assumptions that produce very low discount rates. combined with other assumptions, this magnifies impacts in the distant future and rationalizes deep cuts in emissions, and indeed in all consumption, today
but these points are not the nub of the matter. rather, the but these points are not the nub of the matter. rather, the review's radical view of policy stems from an extreme assumption about discounting. discounting is a factor in climate-change policy - indeed in all investment decisions -that involves the relative weight of future and present payoffs. at first blush, this area would seem a technicality. unfortunately, it cannot be buried in a footnote, for discounting is the central to the radical revision the review proposes ethical assumptions that produce very low discount rates. combined with other assumptions, this magnifies impacts in the distant future and rationalizes deep cuts in emissions, and indeed in all consumption, today. if we substitute more conventional discount rates used in other globalwarming analyses, by governments, by consumers, or by businesses, the review's dramatic results disappear, and we come back to the climate-policy ramp described above. the balance of this discussion focuses on this central issue.
What is meant by risk ?
risk is commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence
Description of uncertainty ?
uncertainty describes the quality of our knowledge concerning risk
What is the aim of research ?
aims to reduce uncertainties, the primary purpose of adopting a risk-based approach to decision-making is to
before introducing the principles of risk assessment and risk analysis, it is important that the meanings of the terms 'risk' and 'uncertainty' are made clear, especially as they can mean different things to different people. the use of the terms risk and uncertainty in this report is set out in box 1.1. risk is commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence (see figure 1.1). the consequence (or set of consequences or impacts) is usually associated with exposure to a defined hazard, which is often detrimental or harmful. however, risk assessment is equally applicable to the analysis of uncertain beneficial outcomes. uncertainty describes the quality of our knowledge concerning risk. uncertainty may affect both the probability and consequence components of the risk. hence our knowledge of future hazards posed by a changing climate involves uncertainty, which is compounded by the prospect of man-made changes in climate. the impacts associated with any particular future climate are also uncertain. the outcome of decisions taken to reduce climate impacts, or exploit climate-dependent opportunities, is a further source of uncertainty. while research aims to reduce uncertainties, the primary purpose of adopting a risk-based approach to decision-making is to
what is the summary of the Fourth Assessment Report?
the fourth assessment report of the ipcc (ipcc, 2007) gives a summary of some impacts likely to occur under varying amounts of global warming
What is the aspect emerging here?
aspect emerging here is the substantial magnitude of impacts that could occur even within the next few decades, and the scale of damages
the fourth assessment report of the ipcc (ipcc, 2007) gives a summary of some impacts likely to occur under varying amounts of global warming. mapping onto this is the expected warming range for 2030 which indicates the potential impacts that adaptation will need to address. figure 1 shows this for the a1b scenario assumed generally in the unfccc study, as well as for 2050 and 2080 (used respectively in the water and coastal analyses of that study, on the assumption that adaptation in 2030 will need to anticipate future warming due to the long-term nature of investment needs in those sectors). one aspect emerging here is the substantial magnitude of impacts that could occur even within the next few decades, and the scale of damages that could be expected if adaptation is not fully successful in avoiding them.
What is the dominant prediction method for short term  gathered data? (less then twenty years)
initial condition and model uncertainty
What is the dominant method of data prediction on the global scale ranging exceeding fifty years
emissions scenario
climate sensitivity is a very coarse measure of the magnitude of the climate problem. on its own, it does not tell us much about when and where changes in temperature are likely to occur, information that is crucial for policymakers. the main contributors to the uncertainty in temperature projections differ by the lead time and geographic region of the prediction. hawkins and sutton (2009) decompose the uncertainty in temperature projections into three parts: initial condition uncertainty (i.e., variations in model predictions due to small changes in how they are initialized), emissions scenario uncertainty (i.e., uncertainty about the path of future ghg emissions), and model uncertainty (i.e., uncertainty about which climate model captures the dynamics of the climate system). figure 2 shows how these factors contribute to uncertainty about global mean temperature over time. for short-term predictions, that is, less than about twenty years into the future, initial condition and model uncertainty are dominant. the fact that initial condition uncertainty plays an important role for shorter term predictions should come as no surprise. the climate system is chaotic, and the evolution of chaotic systems, by definition, shows great sensitivity to initial conditions. hawkins and sutton (2009) show that initial condition uncertainty is especially important for regional predictions, making substantial contributions to total uncertainty for predictions of sixty years or more. at the global level, for projections twenty to fifty years into the future, the dominant source of uncertainty is model uncertainty (i.e., the variation in predictions across the set of climate models). beyond about fifty years, emissions scenario uncertainty takes over. that is, the policies we ultimately choose drive the uncertainty in the long run.
what organism plays a fundamental role in facultative ponds?
algae play a fundamental role in facultative ponds
what is the range for chlorophyll concentration?
the chlorophyll a concentrations in facultative ponds depend on the applied load and temperature, but are usually located in the range from 500 to 2000 u g l
algae play a fundamental role in facultative ponds. their concentration is much higher than that of bacteria, giving the greenish appearance of the liquid at the pond surface. in terms of dry suspended solids, their concentration is usually lower than 200 mg l, although in terms of numbers they can reach counts in the range of 104to 106organisms per ml (arceivala, 1981). the presence of algae is usually measured in the form of chlorophyll a, a pigment presented by all plants, and the main parameter for the quantification of the algal biomass (k"onig, 2000). the chlorophyll a concentrations in facultative ponds depend on the applied load and temperature, but are usually located in the range from 500 to 2000 u g l (mara et al, 1992). the main types of algae found in stabilisation ponds are (mara et al, 1992; silva jr. and sasson, 1993; jord~ao and pessoa, 1995):
The value of d can be estimated by the use of what?
the value of d can be estimated by the use of tracers, a topic that is outside the scope of this text
How many references present the methodology and examples for this application?
the references (grady lim, 1980; arceivala, 1981; von sperling, 1983b; tchobanoglous schroeder, 1985; viessman hammer, 1985) present the methodology and examples for this application
Which chapter presents typical values for d in stabilisation ponds, together with a simplified methodology for their estimation?
chapter 13 presents typical values for d in stabilisation ponds, together with a simplified methodology for their estimation
complete mixing infinite dispersion (d [?] and d [?] the reactors found in practice have values of d situated between 0 and [?] the value of d can be estimated by the use of tracers, a topic that is outside the scope of this text. the references (grady lim, 1980; arceivala, 1981; von sperling, 1983b; tchobanoglous schroeder, 1985; viessman hammer, 1985) present the methodology and examples for this application. table 8.6 presents ranges of d values for various treatment units. chapter 13 presents typical values for d in stabilisation ponds, together with a simplified methodology for their estimation. treatment units that have d values around 0.2 or less are closer to plug flow conversely, units with values of d around 3.0 or more can be considered to approach complete mix among the factors that can affect the dispersion of the treatment units, the following can be listed (arceivala, 1981):
Why fifty-two species (Table 2) were selected?
because their current ranges, or most of their ranges, are confined to the california floristic province
What the fifty-two species were also chosen to represent ?
variety of range sizes (narrowly vs. widely distributed), life forms (trees, shrubs, herbs), and habitats representing different climate subregions (coastal, foothill, lower and upper montane
Where the species presence data came from ?
a database of more than 82 000 locations that was compiled for ongoing studies of climate-change impacts on california plant species (viers et al. 2006; hannah et al. 2008
fifty-two species (table 2) were selected because their current ranges, or most of their ranges, are confined to the california floristic province. they were also chosen to represent a variety of range sizes (narrowly vs. widely distributed), life forms (trees, shrubs, herbs), and habitats representing different climate subregions (coastal, foothill, lower and upper montane). range size was approximated by summing the area of ecological subregions within which species occurrences fell (fig. 1). species presence data came from a database of more than 82 000 locations that was compiled for ongoing studies of climate-change impacts on california plant species (viers et al. 2006; hannah et al. 2008). the number of presences ranged from 9 to 6359 at 90 m resolution for these 52 species, and one observation per grid cell was used for modeling at each resolution (table 2). the majority of these occurrence records came from vegetation plot surveys conducted since the mid1990s and their locational precision is on the order of tens of meters, well within the finest resolution considered in this study. some of the records came from older natural history collections  1%) or surveys (18%) and therefore their locational uncertainty is on the order of hundreds of meters, contributing some noise to the analyses.
HOW LONG TIME THIS ACTIONS DURING?
tions occurred during large fire years
WHAT THEY THINK THAT WAS DOING THE DIFFERENCE
we think this difference was due to the high importance of understory fuel amounts in the relatively xeric
WHO SUPPORTED THIS INTERPRETACION?
this interpretation is supported by similar sea results in oregon and washington
e1 tions occurred during large fire years than in the ponderosa pine sites. as just described, we think this difference was due to the high importance of understory fuel amounts in the relatively xeric, pine-dominated forests. in contrast, low fuel moisture was probably more important for successful fire ignition and spread in the relatively mesic, and productive mixed conifer forests (i.e., fuels were generally not limiting). hence the lack of significantly wet years preceding regional large fire years in the sierras could be because most of these sites were in relatively productive mixed conifer stands, whereas the majority of the southwestern sites were in dry ponderosa pine stands. this interpretation is supported by similar sea results in oregon and washington (heyerdahl, brubaker, and agee, in press) where precipitation is greater and mixed conifer forests are more productive than in the southwestern pine-dominant stands. also the relatively dry pine forests sampled in colorado (veblen, kitzberger, and donnegan 2000; donnegan, veblen, and sibold 2001), mexico (heyerdahl and alvarado, chapter 7, this volume), and austrocedrus chilensis woodlands in argentina (kitzberger, veblen, and villalba 1997; kitzberger and veblen 1998; veblen et al. 1999) had similar wet years preceding large fire years.
We argue that which approach is better suited for social scientists seeking to address climate change?
we argue that an ''applied forward reasoning'' approach is better suited for social scientists seeking to address climate change
Climate change, which we characterize as a ''super wicked'' problem comprises which four key features?
climate change, which we characterize as a ''super wicked'' problem comprising four key features: time is running out; those who cause the problem also seek to provide a solution; the central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; and, partly as a result, policy responses discount the future irrationally
To overcome this tragedy, greater attention must be given to the generation of path-dependent policy interventions that can do what?
to overcome this tragedy, greater attention must be given to the generation of path-dependent policy interventions that can ''constrain our future collective selves
most policy-relevant work on climate change in the social sciences either analyzes costs and benefits of particular policy options against important but often narrow sets of objectives or attempts to explain past successes or failures. we argue that an ''applied forward reasoning'' approach is better suited for social scientists seeking to address climate change, which we characterize as a ''super wicked'' problem comprising four key features: time is running out; those who cause the problem also seek to provide a solution; the central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; and, partly as a result, policy responses discount the future irrationally. these four features combine to create a policy-making ''tragedy'' where traditional analytical techniques are ill equipped to identify solutions, even when it is well recognized that actions must take place soon to avoid catastrophic future impacts. to overcome this tragedy, greater attention must be given to the generation of path-dependent policy interventions that can ''constrain our future collective selves.'' three diagnostic questions result that orient policy analysis toward understanding how to trigger sticky interventions that, through progressive incremental trajectories, entrench support over time while expanding the populations they cover. drawing especially from the literature on path dependency, but inverting it to
Whats prop 1?
under conditions of high uncertainty from climate change policy, fi rms will invest more in technology development than deployment if they operate in technologically dynamic industries
what is  This trajectory is a reflection
while safeguarding their fl exibility: a market niche or a mainstream market approach
the recent success of hybrid cars such as the Toyota Prius might have what?
serious consequences for the marketability of the fuel cell vehicle
proposition 1. under conditions of high uncertainty from climate change policy, fi rms will invest more in technology development than deployment if they operate in technologically dynamic industries. commercializing technologies: niche market or mainstream market another challenge with regard to the corporate climate change innovation process is the issue of commercialization - how to develop new markets. as discussed above, commercialization involves the integration of new technology in the design and manufacturing process, responsiveness to market needs, speed of time-to-market, fl exibility and getting ahead of regulatory activity on climate change (rothwell, 1994). hence, whether a company succeeds in commercializing the innovation depends not only on its technical attributes, but also on creating consumer acceptance of the technology, establishing a low-carbon brand reputation and anticipating government regulation (schot and geels, 2007). since the market for climate-induced innovations is relatively novel, companies run the risk of making irreversible green mistakes and, as a consequence, will prefer an approach by which they maintain fl exibility in their resource commitments (rugman and verbeke, 1998). companies would like to have the option to pull out of the market without putting too many resources at risk if the innovation turns out not to deliver the expected rate of return. uncertainty about the outcomes of current climate policy negotiations aggravates this risk. in the long run, the ideal scenario would be an energy and transportation infrastructure that does not rely at all on fossil fuels. to reach this end-point, companies can follow two trajectories in developing new markets for low-carbon products, while safeguarding their fl exibility: a market niche or a mainstream market approach. the fi rst option is that companies aim for a trajectory of commercializing carbon-free technologies, where the low-carbon aspect forms the unique selling point. as heavy dependence on fossil fuels is the rule rather than the exception, this means a radical departure from existing markets and systems. one way of achieving this is to let a new technology fi rst develop in a market niche and then gradually progress through several other niches. such a strategy of 'market niche development' leads to the creation of institutions (e.g. safety rules), adjustment of consumer preferences and improvement of the fi t between the new technology and the market (kemp et al. 1998; raven, 2007). the main advantage of fi rst targeting niche markets is that it enables a company to experiment with several new technologies in parallel and thus helps in coping with uncertainty as several options are kept open. however, a market niche approach also has several drawbacks. it has proven diffi cult for companies to move their innovation beyond the market niche into mainstream markets. moreover, developing a sequence of market niches requires many resources, and if an insuffi cient rate of return is reached further investments will come to a halt (raven, 2007). to illustrate, the fact that the fuel cell vehicle was long predestined as the ultimate solution was partly because it followed the route of market niche development. since the 1960s, fuel cells have been used in several market niches, such as space travel and the us army and navy. however, fuel cell technology has still not managed to leave niche markets (raven, 2007). the second option is a trajectory of commercializing low-carbon technologies via incremental changes of existing products, where the low-carbon aspect just forms an extra element to other main selling points. this has been called 'hybridization' because innovation is commercialized as an add-on element to existing products, thus appealing to mainstream markets more swiftly (raven, 2007). this trajectory is a refl ection of the phenomenon that companies, when confronted with technological change, generally do not fully discard their existing key capabilities, but build on them instead (unruh, 2000). for example, recent evidence shows that us utilities with high levels of coal-based power generation were less likely to invest in renewable generation, as this would be a departure from capabilities in running large, centralized coal-fi red power plants (delmas et al. 2007). there is thus a certain level of inertia in the way in which companies adjust their capabilities in response to technological change (leonard-barton, 1992). as a consequence, a climate-induced market shift takes place through transition technologies (hekkert and van den hoed, 2004), which often means that companies commercialize technologies which may be less carbon intensive, but not carbon free. one of the issues then is whether low-carbon products that seem to be of a transitory nature at fi rst will not become dominant themselves, thus standing in the way of further market entry of more radical end-point solutions. for example, the recent success of hybrid cars such as the toyota prius might have serious consequences for the marketability of the fuel cell vehicle. the fuel cell's main advantage compared to the internal combustion engine - that it performs much better in terms of emissions -
What is thermal comfort closely related to?
wind comfort
What is outdoor thermal comfort governed by?
both direct and diffuse solar irradiation, the exchange of long-wave radiation between a person and the environment, as well as the air temperature and humidity
What is understanding the dynamic response of people to varying environmental conditions necessary in?
the evaluation of outdoor thermal comfort
thermal comfort is closely related to wind comfort, since wind plays a crucial role in the comfort sensation (e.g. blocken and carmeliet, 2004a stathopoulos, 2006 mochida and lun, 2008 ). additionally, outdoor thermal comfort is governed by both direct and diffuse solar irradiation, the exchange of long-wave radiation between a person and the environment, as well as the air temperature and humidity. since the weather parameters vary over time, and since the pedestrians circulate through the urban environment, understanding the dynamic response of people to varying environmental conditions is necessary in the evaluation of outdoor thermal comfort. humans not only select their clothing and adjust their activity level to the ambient conditions, but they may also adapt on a psychological level, depending on the available choices, the environmental stimulation, the thermal history and the expectations nikolopoulou and steemers, 2003 ). outdoor thermal comfort is thus governed by numerous factors.
Because of climate change what will incease globally by 2100?
net increase in flood risk globally by 2100
What will affect many coastal settlements throughout the world?
sea level rise and changes in storm patterns could affect many coastal settlements throughout the world
Some locations may see significant changes by what year?
in some locations under some scenarios of climate change there may be significant changes in flooding by 2050
there is a growing certainty that climate change will lead to changes in flood hazard and a net increase in flood risk globally by 2100. in some locations under some scenarios of climate change there may be significant changes in flooding by 2050. sea level rise and changes in storm patterns could affect many coastal settlements throughout the world, including many of the world's 'megacities' with populations of over 8 million (klein et al ., 2003). increases in storm precipitation and seasonal rainfall peaks will affect many river basins, particularly, but not necessarily exclusively, in existing humid regions. we cannot say precisely where, when, and by how much flood hazard will change. however, we contend
What would be found in Section 3 of the Technical Paper
section 3 presents a general overview of observed and projected water-related impacts of climate change, and possible adaptation strategies, drawn principally from the working group ii assessments
What do sections 4 and 5 of the Technical Paper  cover?
section 4 then looks at systems and sectors in detail, and section 5 takes a regional approach
this technical paper consists of eight sections. following the to the paper (section 1), section 2 is based primarily on the assessments of working group i, and looks at the science of climate change, both observed and projected, as it relates to hydrological variables. section 3 presents a general overview of observed and projected water-related impacts of climate change, and possible adaptation strategies, drawn principally from the working group ii assessments. section 4 then looks at systems and sectors in detail, and section 5 takes a regional approach. section 6, based on working group iii assessments, covers waterrelated aspects of mitigation. section 7 looks at the implications for policy and sustainable development, followed by the final section (section 8) on gaps in knowledge and suggestions for future work. the technical paper uses the standard uncertainty language of the fourth assessment (see box 1.1).
variables from the CPS are brought forward to where?
the atus
what is the purpose of the ATUS?
 providing a large pool of potential covariates
they are sensitive to extreme temperature because?
heir age
many demographic variables from the cps are brought forward to the atus, providing a large pool of potential covariates for our analysis, which is also shown in table 1. nearly all demographics are comparable across groups, with one notable exception. the mean age of the nonemployed is 52, compared to 42 and 41 for highand low-risk workers, respectively. this difference is not surprising given that 38% of the nonemployed in our sample are retired. nonetheless this difference is important to keep in mind when analyzing responses across groups because while the nonemployed may have more flexibility in their scheduling, they may also be more sensitive to extreme temperatures because of their age d wagner et al. 1972 th figure 1 shows the distribution of maximum temperatures from 2003 to 2006 for those county-dates from which we have observations in our
what is the problem with the current model of securitization market?
the growth of the securitization market in the 1990s makes it easier for capital to flow into the market if the returns are good enough. this means that as soon as premiums start to rise, capital immediately starts flowing into insurance bonds, thus driving premiums down again
why catastrophes are good for insurance businesses?
catastrophes are normally good for insurance business; they result in increased demand for insurance and make it easier for insurers to carry rate increases
Does the insurance market have the capacity to support demand in the face of catastrophes?
capacity has not been a problem right up to quite recently. the market was confident even in 1999 that the combination of another northridge earthquake, another hurricane andrew and another 1987-style stockmarket crash would still not wipe out overcapacity in the industry. 23 since then we have had the terrorism attack on the world trade center and confidence has taken a nosedive
the growth of the securitization market in the 1990s makes it easier for capital to flow into the market if the returns are good enough. this means that as soon as premiums start to rise, capital immediately starts flowing into insurance bonds, thus driving premiums down again. <s121>* previous cycles have been against the background of continuous growth in demand for insurance as society becomes wealthier. in the 1990s, multinational corporations increasingly decided not to insure at all because for them it was just ' pound swapping ' over time, and the exchange rate was not favourable. <s121>* last, but certainly not least, in the past, strong insurers could ride out bad times by realizing capital gains on investments, thanks to a healthy stockmarket. the stockmarket is anything but healthy at present, and there is no longer the cushion of investment profits. catastrophes are normally good for insurance business; they result in increased demand for insurance and make it easier for insurers to carry rate increases. capacity has not been a problem right up to quite recently. the market was confident even in 1999 that the combination of another northridge earthquake, another hurricane andrew and another 1987-style stockmarket crash would still not wipe out overcapacity in the industry. 23 since then we have had the terrorism attack on the world trade center and confidence has taken a nosedive.
What is the age of elevate  risk of mosrtality in Seatle?
elevated risk of mortality for persons aged 45 and above
How many  non-traumatic deaths is expected in Seatle area?
the area can expect around 100 excess non-traumatic deaths in 2025
Which others areas apart of Seatle was made the study?
in the spokane, tri-cities and yakima study areas
in the greater seattle area there is a clear relationship between heat events and elevated risk of mortality for persons aged 45 and above. the elevated risk is apparent for non-traumatic causes in general, and for circulatory and respiratory causes specifically. the majority of circulatory deaths are due to cardiovascular causes; an analysis of cardiovascular deaths (not presented) showed that the relative risks associated with circulatory causeof-death were driven primarily by cardiovascular deaths. respiratory deaths were too small in number to allow for an analysis of more specific causes. the highest relative risks were for persons aged 65 and above; relative risks for persons aged 45 to 64 were smaller (not presented) and this age group contributed relatively few excess deaths in the historical period (not shown). analyses of age groups younger than 45 were inconclusive, as there were insufficient numbers of deaths to produce stable relative risk values (not presented). we did not attempt to extend the mortality analysis beyond the duration of the heat event itself. this approach may have missed some latent deaths if they occurred after the heat event ended. however, by limiting the analysis just to the heat event, the calculated risk estimates should be conservative because they would tend to understate the deaths attributable to the event. in the spokane, tri-cities and yakima study areas, separately or combined, only a few, isolated relative risks were statistically significant. some patterns in relative risk, however, suggest real differences in mortality rates during heat events, but with samples perhaps too small to support statistical significance. projected annual numbers of excess deaths in the greater seattle area were substantial under some conditions; even under moderate summer (maysept.) warming, the area can expect around 100 excess non-traumatic deaths in 2025 and more than 150 excess in 2045. the projections for the eastern study areas combined were much smaller. even when projected population is taken into account, excess deaths per 100,000 were much lower in spokane, tri-cities and yakima than in the greater seattle area. this could be explained in a number of ways. the urban heat island effect may be stronger in the more densely settled seattle area. to the extent that
Which approach could be used to identify the cluster structure in atmospheric pressure data?
for instance, a mixture model approach has been used to identify the cluster structure in atmospheric pressure data
What is the SNN clustering technique or approach?
this technique first finds the nearest neighbors of each data point and then redefines the similarity between pairs of points in terms of how many nearest neighbors the two points share. using this definition of similarity, our algorithm identifies core points and then builds clusters around the core points
According to experimental results, when does SNN clustering work better than DBSCAN or K-means
note that contains experimental results indicating that snn clustering works better than dbscan or k-means when the goal is to find clusters of relatively uniform densities
various techniques can be used for clustering earth science data. for instance, a mixture model approach has been used to identify the cluster structure in atmospheric pressure data a novel divisive clustering algorithm, acts (automatic classification of time series), was used for land use classification and a modified version of a hierarchical clustering algorithm was used for land use segmentation furthermore, we also used the k-means and dbscan clustering algorithms in some of our preliminary investigations of earth science data. however, in this work, we will use our snn clustering approach described in [2, 3, 4]. this technique first finds the nearest neighbors of each data point and then redefines the similarity between pairs of points in terms of how many nearest neighbors the two points share. using this definition of similarity, our algorithm identifies core points and then builds clusters around the core points. the use of a shared nearest neighbor definition of similarity alleviates problems with varying densities and high dimensionality, and the use of core points handles problems with shape and size. furthermore, the number of clusters is automatically determined by the location and distribution of core points. another novel aspect of the snn clustering algorithm is that the resulting clusters do not contain all the points, but rather, contain only points that come from regions of relatively uniform density. these features allow the algorithm to find clusters that other approaches overlook, i.e., clusters of low or medium density which represent relatively uniform regions 'surrounded' by non-uniform or higher density areas. with respect to earth science data, snn clustering produces high quality clusters, which are almost always geographically contiguous, and automatically selects the number of clusters. because of space considerations, we omit a detailed description of the snn algorithm and refer the reader to [2, 4]. note that contains experimental results indicating that snn clustering works better than dbscan or k-means when the goal is to find clusters of relatively uniform densities.
what indication by shrub expansion within the alpine belt
the expansion of shrubs within the alpine belt may indicate a modification of the competitive relations among shrub-plant functional types
what is the reason of decreasing of length of plant in snow cover area
the decrease in the length of the snow cover season may be responsible for the increase in l procumbens and v uliginosum which are typical of windswept areas
what show the pattern of change
these patterns suggest that the changes in distribution are often asymmetrical, with species invasions from lower elevations moving faster than the upslope retreat of resident species
the expansion of shrubs within the alpine belt may indicate a modification of the competitive relations among shrub-plant functional types (ie r ferrugineum ), with dwarf shrubs (ie l procumbens and chamaephytes (ie v uliginosum displacing hemicryptophytes (ie carex curvula ), as hypothesized by theurillat and guisan (2001). the decrease in the length of the snow cover season may be responsible for the increase in l procumbens and v uliginosum which are typical of windswept areas, the exception of 2650-2700 m and above 2800 m, where there was a decrease in coverage. the vegetation dynamics of the area as a whole indicate similar patterns of change, with expansion exceeding regression (34.8% versus 20.2%). the spatial distribution of the changes (figure 3b) indicates that expansion largely prevails between 2230 and 2500 m asl, whereas, above 2500 m, expansion was slightly greater than or equal to regression. these patterns suggest that the changes in distribution are often asymmetrical, with species invasions from lower elevations moving faster than the upslope retreat of resident species (walther et al 2002). the changes in the ecological series indicate a cascade effect (table 1), with the arrival of the alpine shrubland and upward displacement of the alpine grassland (especially between 2230 and 2500 m). the shrub invasion is due to the expansion and upward displacement of the
What were the results of the interviews?
the results emphasise a strong mitigation bias through acts such improving energy efficiency of buildings, street lighting and installation of small energy cogeneration plants
Where were the interviews conducted and for how long?
all interviews took place on site at council offices and lasted between 30 min and 1 h
Are all interview themes relevant to the focus of the paper?
not all of the interview themes were directly relevant to the focus of this paper, so some tangential themes have been removed
overall, what would local councils need to do differently in order to effectively adapt to climate change? the interviews were conducted and recorded by three researchers, each an author of this paper. all interviews took place on site at council offices and lasted between 30 min and 1 h. the analysis involved grouping the responses into qualitative themes with the assistance of nvivo (qsr 2010 software. each researcher analysed all the data individually at first then compared their themes with those of the other researchers to reach a shared representation of the data. not all of the interview themes were directly relevant to the focus of this paper, so some tangential themes have been removed. further information on the methods and the full set of empirical results are presented in smith et al. 2008a ). 5 results a summary of the interview questions by council is presented in table 2 the results emphasise a strong mitigation bias through acts such improving energy efficiency of buildings, street lighting and installation of small energy cogeneration plants. most
What does oxygen represent to marine ecosystems?
oxygen (o2) is a critical constraint on marine ecosystems
What happens when there are drops of oceanic O2?
as oceanic o2 falls to hypoxic concentrations, habitability for aerobic organisms decreases rapidly
Where is the largest suboxide zone in the world?
in model-based reconstructions of historical oxygen changes, the world ' s largest suboxic zone, in the pacific ocean, varies in size by a factor of 2
oxygen (o2) is a critical constraint on marine ecosystems. as oceanic o2 falls to hypoxic concentrations, habitability for aerobic organisms decreases rapidly. we show that the spatial extent of hypoxia is highly sensitive to small changes in the ocean ' s o2 content, with maximum responses at suboxic concentrations where anaerobic metabolisms predominate. in model-based reconstructions of historical oxygen changes, the world ' s largest suboxic zone, in the pacific ocean, varies in size by a factor of 2. this is attributable to climate-driven changes in the depth of the tropical and subtropical thermocline that have multiplicative effects on respiration rates in low-o2 water. the same mechanism yields even larger fluctuations in the rate of nitrogen removal by denitrification, creating a link between decadal climate oscillations and the nutrient limitation of marine photosynthesis.
What will happen to emperor penguins if the climate continues its pattern accordinc to GCMs?
if the climate during the rest of this century follows the patterns forecast by the gcms examined here, the emperor penguin population at terre ade'lie will respond by declining toward extinction
What does the median projection data predict?
our median projection shows a decline in the number of breeding pairs by 81% over this period
What will happen by the end of the projection?
by the end of our projection, the population is continuing to decline, regardless of which gcm is used to forecast future sea ice conditions
if the climate during the rest of this century follows the patterns forecast by the gcms examined here, the emperor penguin population at terre ade'lie will respond by declining toward extinction. our median projection shows a decline in the number of breeding pairs by 81% over this period, and a good chance (43%) of a more severe decline of 90% or more. by the end of our projection, the population is continuing to decline, regardless of which gcm is used to forecast future sea ice conditions. the range of uncertainty associated with this result might change the details, but not the overall biological conclusions. we arrived at this conclusion by tracing the effects of sic from the level of the individual to the level of the population. first, we measured the response of the vital rates to sea ice conditions, then incorporated those responses into a demographic model to calculate the population growth, and finally we coupled the demographic model to forecasts of sea ice conditions produced by an ensemble of gcms.
What period were the experiments ran?
1985-1989
What did the study focus on?
the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature
What was carried out to compare the parameterization uncertainty with the boundary condition and observational uncertainties?
additional nonsystematic tests
a set of 16 dynamical downscaling experiments were performed using the mm5 modeling system in which two possible choices for four parameterization schemes (the explicit moisture, cumulus, pbl and longwave radiation) were systematically explored. the experiments were 5-year runs for the period 1985-1989 over the iberian peninsula nested into the nnr large-scale data. the study focused only on the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, and the simulations were compared with several observational data sets. additional nonsystematic tests were carried out to compare the parameterization uncertainty with the boundary condition and observational uncertainties. figure 11. as in figure 10 but for 2 m temperature.
Define ocean depth?
ocean depth exerts a strong control over the winter sst distribution in the yec sea through intense vertical mixing that reaches 100 m deep
Define deep channels and shallow banks?
the deep channels and shallow banks on the continental shelf, therefore, lead to tongue-like warm and cold sst structures in the winter climatology
Define Kuroshio Current?
the continental break, furthermore, steers the kuroshio current, resulting in a strong sst front. on the continental shelf, wind speed and cloud water content are locally enhanced (reduced) over the warm (cold) tongue. on the warmer flank of the kuroshio front, we see a zone of high wind speeds and a band of raining cloud due to the region's unstable atmospheric stratification near the surface
ocean depth exerts a strong control over the winter sst distribution in the yec sea through intense vertical mixing that reaches 100 m deep. the deep channels and shallow banks on the continental shelf, therefore, lead to tongue-like warm and cold sst structures in the winter climatology. the continental break, furthermore, steers the kuroshio current, resulting in a strong sst front. on the continental shelf, wind speed and cloud water content are locally enhanced (reduced) over the warm (cold) tongue. on the warmer flank of the kuroshio front, we see a zone of high wind speeds and a band of raining cloud due to the region's unstable atmospheric stratification near the surface. in both the model and satellite observations, surface wind convergence is roughly collocated with the kuroshio current and over the warm sst tongues that meander through the yec sea for as far as 1,000 km. finally we show that by increasing the baroclinicity and condensational heating, the kuroshio front aids the growth of the so-called taiwan cyclone, an important winter weather phenomenon for japan.
How does organisms respond psychologically to the environmental variability and change?
as climate or other conditions shift, organisms initially respond based on physiological and behavioral adaptations molded through their evolutionary history (somero 2012). new conditions may be physiologically tolerable, allowing acclimatization (an adjustment of physiology within individuals) or adaptation (increased abundance and reproduction of tolerant genotypes over generations), or may be intolerable, promoting migration (by individuals or populations), change in phenology (timing of annual events), or death and local extinction if adaptation is not possible (parmesan 2006
Which types of species can become "winners" in this environmental change?
environmental change may benefit some species or populations, owing to greater availability of food or nutrients, reduced physiological costs of maintenance (e.g., energy used for respiration, acid-base balance, calcification), or reduced competition or predation. such species may experience higher survival, growth, and reproduction, and may thus be "winners" in a changing world
What is the effect on the metabolic rate  of ectotherimic organisms?
generally, metabolic rates of ectothermic organisms rise exponentially with temperature, leading to higher rates for most physiological processes, including photosynthesis and respiration, within the range of temperatures that an organism tolerates
physiological performance is the principal determinant of a species' tolerance to environmental variability and change. as climate or other conditions shift, organisms initially respond based on physiological and behavioral adaptations molded through their evolutionary history (somero 2012). new conditions may be physiologically tolerable, allowing acclimatization (an adjustment of physiology within individuals) or adaptation (increased abundance and reproduction of tolerant genotypes over generations), or may be intolerable, promoting migration (by individuals or populations), change in phenology (timing of annual events), or death and local extinction if adaptation is not possible (parmesan 2006). environmental change may benefit some species or populations, owing to greater availability of food or nutrients, reduced physiological costs of maintenance (e.g., energy used for respiration, acid-base balance, calcification), or reduced competition or predation. such species may experience higher survival, growth, and reproduction, and may thus be "winners" in a changing world. in many cases, however, a shift toward environmental conditions outside the normal range of variability is stressful, causing suboptimal physiological performance and thus creating the "losers" of environmental change. for such individuals, more stressful conditions may lead to higher mortality, reduced growth, smaller size, and reduced reproduction. generally, metabolic rates of ectothermic organisms rise exponentially with temperature, leading to higher rates for most physiological processes, including photosynthesis and respiration, within the range of temperatures that an organism tolerates. this relationship is formalized in the concept of q10, which is the rate increase resulting from a 10*c rise in temperature. for example, eppley (1972) reported an average q10 of 1.9 for growth rates among ~ 130 species and clones of phytoplankton, yielding a 37% increase in growth rate for a 2*c warming. on this basis, it might be expected that primary production, as well as the growth rates of ectothermic animals and pathogens, will increase in a warmer ocean. however, nutritional status, thermal tolerance, oxygen availability, environmental chemistry, food availability, or other factors may limit growth and production, or other biological processes, regardless of metabolic rate. in heterotrophic organisms, warmer temperatures raise basal metabolic rates but can also raise respiratory demand, potentially reducing their aerobic scope for activity (e.g., feeding, predator avoidance, digestion) and leaving less energy for growth and reproduction (p"ortner knust 2007). for example, salmon swimming through warmer ocean waters in the north pacific experience elevated metabolic and respiratory rates, which in turn increase energy requirements. in addition,
Explain , how  the Climate change is affecting the  marine mammals?
 it is widely anticipated that impacts on marine mammals will be mediated primarily via changes in prey distribution and abundance and that the more mobile (or otherwise adaptable) species may be able to respond to this to some extent. however, the extent of this adaptability is largely unknown
What does  direct observations  of marine mammal populations indicate?
direct observations have been made of several marine mammal populations that illustrate reactions to climate change. these observations indicate that certain species and populations may be especially vulnerable, including those with a limited habitat range, such as the vaquita phocoena sinus or those for which sea ice provides an important part of their habitat, such as narwhals monodon monoceros bowhead balaena mysticetus and beluga delphinapterus leucas whales and polar bears ursus maritimus
There is the need to take projected impacts into account in future conservation and management plans, including species assessments. State how this can be achieved?
this review highlights the need to take projected impacts into account in future conservation and management plans, including species assessments. how this should be done in an adequately precautionary manner offers a significant challenge to those involved in such processes, although it is possible to identify at this time at least some species and populations that may be regarded as especially vulnerable. marine ecosystems modellers and marine mammal experts will need to work together to make such assessments and conservation plans as robust as possible
climate change is now known to be affecting the oceans. it is widely anticipated that impacts on marine mammals will be mediated primarily via changes in prey distribution and abundance and that the more mobile (or otherwise adaptable) species may be able to respond to this to some extent. however, the extent of this adaptability is largely unknown. meanwhile, within the last few years direct observations have been made of several marine mammal populations that illustrate reactions to climate change. these observations indicate that certain species and populations may be especially vulnerable, including those with a limited habitat range, such as the vaquita phocoena sinus or those for which sea ice provides an important part of their habitat, such as narwhals monodon monoceros bowhead balaena mysticetus and beluga delphinapterus leucas whales and polar bears ursus maritimus similarly, there are concerns about those species that migrate to feeding grounds in polar regions because of rapidly changing conditions there, and this includes many baleen whale populations. this review highlights the need to take projected impacts into account in future conservation and management plans, including species assessments. how this should be done in an adequately precautionary manner offers a significant challenge to those involved in such processes, although it is possible to identify at this time at least some species and populations that may be regarded as especially vulnerable. marine ecosystems modellers and marine mammal experts will need to work together to make such assessments and conservation plans as robust as possible. keywords climate change, conservation management, dolphins, marine mammals, polar bears, porpoises, seals, whales.
Where did Professor SILVIA UBILLOS receive her PhD?
silvia ubillos obtained her phd from the university of the basque country
What is Professor DAR ' IOP ' AEZ currently researching?
he is currently working on the impact of collective violence on culture and emotional climate and on collective processes of coping with traumatic political events
What has Professor NEKANE BASABE published?
she has published studies on health psychology, migration, acculturation and health, and culture and emotions
dar ' iop ' aezwasborninchile,receivinghisphdfromtheuniversityoflouvain, belgium, in 1983. he is currently professor of social psychology at the university of basque country in spain. he has published numerous studies on the mental health, collective memory and social identity of refugees, migrants, and others who have been exposed to traumatic events. he is currently working on the impact of collective violence on culture and emotional climate and on collective processes of coping with traumatic political events. nekane basabe, phd, is professor of social psychology at the university of basque country in spain. she has published studies on health psychology, migration, acculturation and health, and culture and emotions. silvia ubillos obtained her phd from the university of the basque country. she is currently assistant professor at the university of burgos in spain. her
At what stage of the treatment of wastes system should be considered the anaerobic system?
in most of the applications, the anaerobic systems should be considered a first stage of the treatment
Why does the anaerobic system should be onsidered at a first stage of the treatment?
as they are not capable of producing final effluents with very good quality
What has been used in most of the anaerobic treatment systems and why?
in most of the anaerobic treatment systems 727 situations, a combined treatment system has been used to obtain the substantial advantages of the incorporation of an anaerobic system as the first stage, followed by a post-treatment system
in this chapter, the main anaerobic systems currently used for the treatment of solid and liquid wastes were described and classified, for convenience, into conventional systems and high-rate systems there is a consensus that, in most of the applications, the anaerobic systems should be considered a first stage of the treatment, as they are not capable of producing final effluents with very good quality. obviously, in some situations, depending on the characteristics of the influent wastewater and the final discharge quality requirements, anaerobic systems can constitute complete treatment, or the first phase (in time) in the implementation of the treatment system along the planning horizon. however, in most of the anaerobic treatment systems 727 situations, a combined treatment system has been used to obtain the substantial advantages of the incorporation of an anaerobic system as the first stage, followed by a post-treatment system. in this respect, several post-treatment alternatives have been researched, reported and implemented in the last few years, including both aerobic and anaerobic systems. virtually all processes capable of treating raw sewage are also capable of acting as post-treatment for the effluent from anaerobic reactors. post-treatment of anaerobic effluents is covered in chapter 29.
Why should a frame be carefully chosen with the intended audience in mind?
make the recommended behaviors or policies easier to accept
How can we tie nationalism to climate change?
innovative technology will keep our nation's economy strong
Give an example of a religious frame approach to climate change.
this is a way to serve god by protecting his creation
choosing message frames for climate change that are consistent with the values of target groups is one important way to make the recommended behaviors or policies easier to accept. conservation messages, for example, can use an economic frame this is an excellent way to save money ); an energy independence frame this is a means for our country to free itself from dependence on foreign oil ); a legacy frame this is a way to protect our children's future ); a stewardship frame this is how i honor my moral obligation to protect the abiding wonders and mystery of life ); a religious frame this is a way to serve god by protecting his creation ); or a nationalist frame innovative technology will keep our nation's economy strong ). each of these frames is likely to resonate more effectively with the values of different segments of people in the u.s.
What is the triangular relationship between amphibians, birds and mammals?
essentially, amphibians, birds and mammals display a triangular relationship with over-dispersion of range-change values d for species with low contribution to overall network robustness (low k and sin
Species with high k degree and sin strength tend to what?
species with high k degree and sin strength tend to covary near the horizontal line of no-range-change, which means that as species become more important to overall network robustness they are also projected to be less impacted by climate change
how is the pattern for reptiles?
for reptiles the pattern is slightly different with a clear tendency for species gaining range as a consequence of climate change being also the species that contribute more to robustness of the networks (fig. 5
7-ev properties when compared against species' exposure to 21st century climate change (fig. 5). essentially, amphibians, birds and mammals display a triangular relationship with over-dispersion of range-change values d for species with low contribution to overall network robustness (low k and sin). species with high k degree and sin strength tend to covary near the horizontal line of no-range-change, which means that as species become more important to overall network robustness they are also projected to be less impacted by climate change. this relationship is particularly marked for birds and mammals and for the measure of strength (sin). for reptiles the pattern is slightly different with a clear tendency for species gaining range as a consequence of climate change being also the species that contribute more to robustness of the networks (fig. 5). when examining the measure of species sensitivity to network loss (sout) against projected climate change impacts on species, no clear pattern emerges (fig. 5). if anything, there is a tendency for species with intermediate strengths (sout) to over-disperse towards intermediate values, but this may well be a consequence of the quasi-random distribution of strength (sout) values (fig. 4). nevertheless there seems to be a tendency for amphibian and reptile species with high dependence on network structure (high sout) to be generally positively affected by climate change (a few exceptions for amphibians). in contrast, the bird and mammal species that gaining or losing more with climate change tend to have low dependences on network structure.
What observations Show that changes in phytoplankton dynamics are integral components ?
multidecadal observations also show that changes in phytoplankton dynamics are integral components of broader, ecosystem-scale changes across all biological communities and environmental factors that regulate them
Define systemic changes in Chesapeake Bay ?
systemic changes in chesapeake bay occurred as a succession of change points beginning in the late 1960s that included (i) increased water temperature, volume of hypoxic water and chlorophyll a concentration and (ii) decreased abundance of the copepod acartia tonsa production of juvenile oysters crassostrea virginica and fisheries landings that were attributed to eutrophication, warming, overfishing and shifting winds (kimmel et al. 2012
What  restructured biological communities?
habitat loss, overexploitation and pollution restructured biological communities in the wadden sea where eelgrass meadows and habitat-building invertebrates have been lost, opportunistic green algae have replaced red algae and 144 species including whales, some bird species, diadromous fish and large groundfish are extinct
multidecadal observations also show that changes in phytoplankton dynamics are integral components of broader, ecosystem-scale changes across all biological communities and environmental factors that regulate them. for example, systemic changes in chesapeake bay occurred as a succession of change points beginning in the late 1960s that included (i) increased water temperature, volume of hypoxic water and chlorophyll a concentration and (ii) decreased abundance of the copepod acartia tonsa production of juvenile oysters crassostrea virginica and fisheries landings that were attributed to eutrophication, warming, overfishing and shifting winds (kimmel et al. 2012). habitat loss, overexploitation and pollution restructured biological communities in the wadden sea where eelgrass meadows and habitat-building invertebrates have been lost, opportunistic green algae have replaced red algae and 144 species including whales, some bird species, diadromous fish and large groundfish are extinct or
What does (DOE) stands for?
the u.s. department of energy
What does (ACPI) stands for?
accelerated climate prediction initiative
What does the project intended to do?
the project was intended both to demonstrate and test a methodology for performing quantitative assessments of climate-driven environmental impacts
in the summer of 2000, the u.s. department of energy (doe) funded a project to perform an experimental 'end-to-end' assessment of the effects of climate change on the western united states. the project was intended both to demonstrate and test a methodology for performing quantitative assessments of climate-driven environmental impacts. a second objective was to provide useful information to regional, state, and local decision-makers, whose job it will be to deal with the conflicting demands that climate change, population increases, and economic growth will place on the water resources of the west. the third objective was to demonstrate the potential value of an accelerated climate prediction initiative (acpi). the acpi was a doe initiative to accelerate the development, improvement, and application of u.s. climate models and to provide the advanced computational facilities that would be needed to carry out this work. although the acpi was not funded, some of its spirit lives on in various doe and other federal agency projects and programs designed to advance 'ultra-scale' computing and the science of climate simulation. in this volume, we hope to demonstrate what can be achieved if a highly qualified group of scientists are brought together, under relatively light management reins, to take an in-depth look at how future climate change might affect issues of real importance to the citizens of the united states. other assessments have been made of the potential effects of climate change on the west (national assessment report, 2000), but this current work differs from previous assessments in important ways. the principal differences are as follows:
How was the relationship between niche position on the temperature gradient and percentage of stable climatically suitable habitat?
the relationship between niche position on the temperature gradient and percentage of stable climatically suitable habitat was almost linear
What did the bell-shaped relationship between range size and percentage of stable suitable habitat show?
the bell-shaped relationship between range size and percentage of stable suitable habitat showed that species with very low numbers of occurrences were projected to lose large proportions of suitable habitat (45-60%), but more abundant species were also expected to lose substantial amount of habitat (40-50
What did the positive linear relationship between niche breadth on the temperature gradient and the remaining suitable habitat show?
finally, the positive linear relationship between niche breadth on the temperature gradient and the remaining suitable habitat showed that species with narrow tolerance to temperature were expected to lose large proportions of habitats (40-60%), whereas the species tolerant to aridity were predicted to be the most stable under future conditions
stepwise glm selected niche position on the temperature gradient (axis 1), range size and niche breadth on the temperature gradient (axis 1) as the most powerful variables to explain the percentage of stable climatically suitable habitat (table 3; fig. 2a). the relationship between niche position on the temperature gradient and percentage of stable climatically suitable habitat was almost linear, showing that species occurring in colder regions (negative side) are expected to lose larger proportions of habitat than species from warmer regions (positive side). the bell-shaped relationship between range size and percentage of stable suitable habitat showed that species with very low numbers of occurrences were projected to lose large proportions of suitable habitat (45-60%), but more abundant species were also expected to lose substantial amount of habitat (40-50%). finally, the positive linear relationship between niche breadth on the temperature gradient and the remaining suitable habitat showed that species with narrow tolerance to temperature were expected to lose large proportions of habitats (40-60%), whereas the species tolerant to aridity were predicted to be the most stable under future conditions. stepwise glm selected range size, niche position on the temperature gradient (axis 1) and niche breadth on the precipitation gradient (axis 2) to explain variation in the percentage of potential habitats gained by species (table 3; fig. 2b). species with low numbers of occurrences were expected to gain the largest proportion of potentially suitable habitat. the bell-shaped relationship between percentage of potentially gained habitat and niche position on the temperature gradient showed that marginal species (i.e. species from warmest or coldest habitats) were expected to gain the lowest proportion of new habitats. the negative relationship between niche breadth and the precipitation gradient
How did Malmstrom Raffa address incorporating insect and pathogens as?
biotic disturbance agents" (76) in models of vegetation change in response to climate
What did Eviner Likens develop a framework for?
evaluating likely ecosystem effects for a pathogen and, by extension, the potential ecosystem and "meta-ecosystem" (80) impacts of a pathogen when its epidemiology shifts with a shifting climate
What will the study of such large-scale processes be facilitated by?
remote sensing of plant populations
the implications of plant disease at the ecosystem level have rarely been addressed. malmstrom raffa (82) have addressed incorporating insect and pathogens as "biotic disturbance agents" (76) in models of vegetation change in response to climate. eviner likens (51) have developed a framework for evaluating likely ecosystem effects for a pathogen and, by extension, the potential ecosystem and "meta-ecosystem" (80) impacts of a pathogen when its epidemiology shifts with a shifting climate. of course, at this scale, the number of interactions and even types of interactions rapidly increases, and changes in land use patterns will also be important factors (39). but it is relevant to consider eviner likens' factors for predicting ecosystem effects and how pathogen characterization might shift with climate change: a pathogen effect on host survival, physiology, behavior, and/or reproduction; b life stages of a host vulnerable to a pathogen; c proportion of individuals/biomass infected at a site; d spatial extent and distribution of infection; e rate of pathogen effects on hosts in relation to rate of response/recovery by hosts or individuals replacing hosts; f functional similarity of infected individuals versus replacements; and g frequency and duration of pathogen impact. many of these factors have been addressed in other sections of this review, but the sixth is of particular interest for scaling up predictions to the ecosystem level. it is possible that, even in the extreme event that a plant species should go extinct due to greater pathogen effects resulting from climate change, plant species that replace it could maintain ecosystem function. on the other hand, if climate change produces major shifts in which agricultural species are present in a region, this may result in important changes in nutrient loss from agriculture to surrounding ecosystems. ultimately, the study of such large-scale processes will be facilitated by remote sensing of plant populations. although remote sensing technologies have advanced rapidly, there are still challenges to identifying particular plant species and to distinguishing between different types of plant stress in the field (146). global networking for impact assessment such as the global change and terrestrial ecosystems core project of the international geosphere-biosphere programme will provide context for evaluation (128a).
What is one alternative to corporate-led schemes such as emissions trading?
one alternative to corporate-led schemes such as emissions trading is government regulation
What is one example of government regulation of energy emissions?
this can include taxation, penalties for polluting, and imposed technological "fixes," such as scrubbers and filters on smokestacks
What company is one of the main distributors of renewable energy in Iceland?
in iceland, one of the main producers and distributors of renewable energy is the oil giant shell
one alternative to corporate-led schemes such as emissions trading is government regulation. this can include taxation, penalties for polluting, and imposed technological "fixes," such as scrubbers and filters on smokestacks. such an approach has been successfully adopted in iceland (where 99 percent of electricity comes from geothermal sources) and costa rica (where 92 percent of energy comes from renewables). additionally, government fossil fuel subsidies and tax breaks could be withdrawn and subsidies for small-scale renewables increased instead. however, there are problems with this approach as well. in iceland, one of the main producers and distributors of renewable energy is the oil giant shell. although the product has changed from fossil fuels to renewables, the corporation is still the same. the power dynamic remains; often the renewable investments of large fossil fuel corporations are another tactic in a cleverly planned "greenwash" campaign to improve their public image. additionally the failure to challenge corporate monopolies in the renewable energy sector could stifle diversity and innovation as was shown when comparing developments in the netherlands and germany. in the netherlands, subsidies for the solar industry in the 1990s were concentrated on shell and eco-consultants ecofys. this limited the number of solar panel firms to just a few main players and shell gained a virtual monopoly in solar panel installation. in contrast, german subsidies were distributed more fairly across different sized firms. by 2002 there were over 300 companies involved in supplying solar panels.30even a future where wind and solar are the main source of energy still fails to challenge underlying patterns of consumption and does not guarantee that transnational corporations will suddenly behave in an environmentally or socially just way. many grassroots initiatives have nevertheless arisen to tackle these problems and it is here that we can see the outlines of an holistic approach to the problem posed by climate change. thousands of small-scale projects successfully balancing social and economic injustice with environmental sustainability have already sprung up around the world. the centre for alternative technology in wales, for example, is in the process of building a wind turbine, a project that was initiated and is managed by the local community. the energy will be used locally, and any surplus sold and the dividends are to be shared among the community group.31another initiative is in the process of being launched in northern spain by a project called escanda who are engaged in planning and forming a renewable energy co-operative to invest, build and maintain wind and solar energy. this challenges corporate control of energy production and distribution, promoting empowerment and democracy as decision-making is held by the people producing and using the electricity generated. it is hoped that the project can provide a model for other communities in spain and perhaps be applied europe-wide.32
What is Climate Change?
determine how identified values are likely to be affected by observed and projected exposure to climate change this step of the assessment evaluates how natural and human-caused climatic variability and change will affect the response of each watershed to hydrologic changes resulting from observed and projected climatic changes
What are the intrinsic properties?
some factors might minimize effects (buffers) and some might amplify effects (stressors). this step considers intrinsic characteristics of the watershed (geology, size, slope, aspect, etc
Describe management contact properties?
management-related characteristics (road density, grazing, water withdrawals, etc.) that affect the condition of the water resource value in question, and combine to influence the overall response of each
determine how identified values are likely to be affected by observed and projected exposure to climate change this step of the assessment evaluates how natural and human-caused climatic variability and change will affect the response of each watershed to hydrologic changes resulting from observed and projected climatic changes. some factors might minimize effects (buffers) and some might amplify effects (stressors). this step considers intrinsic characteristics of the watershed (geology, size, slope, aspect, etc.) and management-related characteristics (road density, grazing, water withdrawals, etc.) that affect the condition of the water resource value in question, and combine to influence the overall response of each
Will temperature rises be greater at higher or lower latitudes?
rises will be greater at higher latitudes
How many levels of action should be taken in a multidisciplinary and integrated approach to reduce the adverse health effects of climate change?
at least three levels of action
eff ects of climate change on health will aff ect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. during this century, earth's average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2degc above preindustrial average temperature. rises will be greater at higher latitudes, with medium-risk scenarios predicting 2-3degc rises by 2090 and 4-5degc rises in northern canada, greenland, and siberia. in this report, we have outlined the major threats--both direct and indirect--to global health from climate change through changing patterns of disease, water and food insecurity, vulnerable shelter and human settlements, extreme climatic events, and population growth and migration. although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect eff ects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest eff ect on global health. a new advocacy and public health movement is needed urgently to bring together governments, international agencies, non-governmental organisations (ngos), communities, and academics from all disciplines to adapt to the eff ects of climate change on health. any adaptation should sit alongside the need for primary mitigation: reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and the need to increase carbon biosequestration through reforestation and improved agricultural practices. the recognition by governments and electorates that climate change has enormous health implications should assist the advocacy and political change needed to tackle both mitigation and adaptation. management of the health eff ects of climate change will require inputs from all sectors of government and civil society, collaboration between many academic disciplines, and new ways of international cooperation that have hitherto eluded us. involvement of local communities in monitoring, discussing, advocating, and assisting with the process of adaptation will be crucial. an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to reduce the adverse health eff ects of climate change requires at least three levels of action. first, policies must be adopted to reduce carbon emissions and to increase carbon biosequestration, and thereby slow down global warming and eventually stabilise temperatures. second, action should be taken on the events linking climate change to disease. third, appropriate public health systems should be put into place to deal with adverse outcomes. while we must resolve the key issue of reliance on fossil fuels, we should acknowledge their contribution to huge improvements in global health and development over the past 100 years. in the industrialised world and richer parts of the developing world, fossil fuel energy has contributed to a doubled longevity, dramatically
What does the SW result?
however, our clear-sky sw results indicate a negative clear-sky albedo feedback
Where did a problem occur?
that this was unlikely to be the problem (see section 5b
What is being misinterpted?
however, it is also possible that feedback from thin clouds (for example) is being misinterpreted as a clear-sky feedback by the erbe algorithms
models have a positive clear-sky albedo feedback ysw  0) of 0.4  0.2 w m 2k 1(colman 2003). however, our clear-sky sw results indicate a negative clear-sky albedo feedback. applying the soden et al. (2004) correction to our clear-sky feedback could mean that the actual clear-sky feedback is more negative still. the negative feedback we find may be due to the erbe instruments being unresponsive to changes in n caused by the cryosphere, as they do not measure latitudes higher than 60deg. however, climate model results indicated that this was unlikely to be the problem (see section 5b). examining the pattern of n variations revealed no obvious large-scale regional pattern associated with a possible mechanism. however, it is also possible that feedback from thin clouds (for example) is being misinterpreted as a clear-sky feedback by the erbe algorithms.
How climate had effects on human life?
wealthier people, more vibrant economies, and countries with better health services, higher levels of education and stronger institutional capacity are generally more resilient to weather extremes, climate variability, and climate change
Based on what factor bank investments are designed?
bank investments themselves are generally designed in accordance with the prevailing climate: no road engineer designs a highway, no hydraulic engineer designs dams, and no agronomist suggests new cash crops, without taking into account the local climate
What are additional problems in long-term climate change?
the new dimension of long-term climate change an additional problem is that many projects and development plans are well in tune with the climate normals (average conditions), but tend to pay less attention to the risks associated with climate variability and extreme events (burton and van aalst 1999
wealthier people, more vibrant economies, and countries with better health services, higher levels of education and stronger institutional capacity are generally more resilient to weather extremes, climate variability, and climate change. in this sense, virtually all world bank activities contribute to vulnerability reduction: more highly developed countries have greater generic adaptive capacity under the climate change agenda more specific adaptive capacity would also be needed, as a conscious effort to do better given the climatic circumstances. at this specific level, bank investments themselves are generally designed in accordance with the prevailing climate: no road engineer designs a highway, no hydraulic engineer designs dams, and no agronomist suggests new cash crops, without taking into account the local climate. so even at this more specific level, the bank is continuously addressing climate risks. two issues complicate this benign picture. at the project level, climate change is an additional factor that is seldom captured when engineers and a variety of sectoral experts and managers look at the climatic record over the past 30 or 100 years. even if they would want to include them, projections of climate change are frequently too uncertain and not at the necessary level of detail either in terms of spatial or temporal scales or variables. projects may therefore be designed to meet normal engineering standards, but may become quite vulnerable unless ways are found to take climate change into account. besides the new dimension of long-term climate change an additional problem is that many projects and development plans are well in tune with the climate normals (average conditions), but tend to pay less attention to the risks associated with climate variability and extreme events (burton and van aalst 1999). the failure of development to incorporate such natural hazard risks is in part responsible for the rapidly rising disaster losses across the globe, with extreme events sometimes wiping out decades of development efforts (kreimer and arnold eds. 2000, ifrc 2002, unisdr 2002, undp 2004).
What is FFS?
ffs is a form of adult education, which evolved from the concept that farmers learn optimally from field observation and experimentation
How is FFS different from traditional approaches?
unlike traditional approaches, it brings together concepts and methods that aim to help farmers produce crops more efficiently. developed to help farmers tailor their ipm practices to diverse and dynamic ecological conditions (fao, 2004c), it is an example of how farmers can adapt to and mitigate climate change through the ability to select, adapt and apply knowledge-intensive methods that are productive, profitable and sustainable
How does FFS help the farmers ?
ffs enables groups of farmers, through a participatory platform, to improve decisionmaking and stimulate local innovation by learning-by-doing. it has a strong emphasis on the development of human resources that brings about tremendous changes. it is a vehicle for knowledge and skill generation and has a proven track record of farmer empowerment at community level in southeast asia. farmers increase their control over technologies, markets, relevant agricultural policies and their agro-ecosystems (fao, 2002b). since the 1990s, ffs in the philippines, through the ipm national programme (kasakalikasan), introduced sustainable agricultural strategies that increased
ffs is a form of adult education, which evolved from the concept that farmers learn optimally from field observation and experimentation. unlike traditional approaches, it brings together concepts and methods that aim to help farmers produce crops more efficiently. developed to help farmers tailor their ipm practices to diverse and dynamic ecological conditions (fao, 2004c), it is an example of how farmers can adapt to and mitigate climate change through the ability to select, adapt and apply knowledge-intensive methods that are productive, profitable and sustainable. ffs enables groups of farmers, through a participatory platform, to improve decisionmaking and stimulate local innovation by learning-by-doing. it has a strong emphasis on the development of human resources that brings about tremendous changes. it is a vehicle for knowledge and skill generation and has a proven track record of farmer empowerment at community level in southeast asia. farmers increase their control over technologies, markets, relevant agricultural policies and their agro-ecosystems (fao, 2002b). since the 1990s, ffs in the philippines, through the ipm national programme (kasakalikasan), introduced sustainable agricultural strategies that increased
The most striking features are the decline in sampling variability during the late 1940s and the weaker increase after the ?
1990
another aspect of global-mean temperature variability highlighted by the filtering technique is the change in the mean value and month-to-month variability of the residual land temperature time series around 1945-50. the timing of the apparent change in the statistical properties of the land data is of particular interest since it coincides with the sudden drop in ssts. the top time series in fig. 15 shows the residual land time series transcribed from fig. 10c. the decrease in variance 1945-50 is visually apparent in the residual global-mean time series but is objectively verified by plotting the derivative and the absolute value of the derivative of the time series (fig. 15, second and third time series from the top). taking the time derivative amplifies the high-frequency sampling variability in the record, much of which is attributable to the incomplete spatial coverage of the station network, and taking the absolute value of the derivative reveals its evolution more clearly. the outstanding features are the decline in sampling variability during the late 1940s and the weaker increase after 1990. the curve at the bottom of fig. 15 shows the fraction of the globe covered by the gridded land data (defined as the cosine-weighted global percentage of grid boxes with at least one reporting station). the drop in variance in the land time series in the late 1940s is broadly consistent with the time history of the coverage of the land surface temperature observing network. we test this hypothesis by showing the same temperature time series in fig. 16, but calculated only from grid boxes with at least 50% coverage between 1900 and 1940. freezing the spatial coverage to the pre-1940 era eliminates most, albeit not all, of the decrease in the sampling variability during the mid-twentieth century.
Would water quality suffer from the projected impacts of climate change?
water quality would suffer from the projected impacts of climate change
Are changes in water quantity and water quality linked?
changes in water quantity and water quality are inextricably linked
Lower water levels tend to lead to what?
lower water levels tend to lead to higher pollutant concentrations, whereas high flow events and flooding increase turbidity and the flushing of contaminants into the water system
water quality would suffer from the projected impacts of climate change. poor water quality effectively diminishes the availability of potable water, and increases the costs associated with rendering water suitable for use. changes in water quantity and water quality are inextricably linked. lower water levels tend to lead to higher pollutant concentrations, whereas high flow events and flooding increase turbidity and the flushing of contaminants into the water system. box 2 lists some of the main water quality concerns facing different regions of the country. warmer air temperatures would result in increased surface-water temperatures, decreased duration of ice cover and, in some cases, lower water levels. these changes may contribute to decreased concentrations of dissolved oxygen, higher concentrations of nutrients such as phosphorus, and summer taste and odour problems (e.g., references 22, 23). river flows are expected to become more variable in the future, with more flash floods and lower minimum flows. both types of hydrological extreme have been shown to negatively affect water quality. during low flow events, increased concentrations of toxins, bacterial contaminants and nuisance algae are common. for example, when flow dropped in the st. lawrence and ottawa rivers, noxious odours became a problem due to an increase in a particular type of phytoplankton.(24)heavy flow events have been shown to increase soil erosion and chemical leaching, whereas intense rainfalls increase the risk of runoff of urban and livestock wastes and nutrients into source water systems.(25)
What are Washington and others arguing?
washington et al. (2006) argue that particularly in africa, addressing climate change will depend on a close engagement with climate variability 
What is the underlying reason for the risk management approach?
the underlying rationale for a risk management approach is the simple observation that neither farmers nor elected policy makers have much interest in events 30-50 years in the future
What is Risk Management?
a risk management approach is an effective way to bring the issues associated with climate change to the "here and now". helping decision makers to understand and deal with current levels of climate variability can clearly provide an entry point to the problems posed by increasing variability in the future and to the options that may be needed to deal with it
there is a growing consensus that adaptation to climate change in the shortto medium-term is perhaps best framed within the context of overall risk management and enhancing resiliency. washington et al. (2006) argue that particularly in africa, addressing climate change will depend on a close engagement with climate variability "... addressing climate on one time scale may be the best way to approach the informational and institutional gaps that limit progress at another, longer time scale." the underlying rationale for a risk management approach is the simple observation that neither farmers nor elected policy makers have much interest in events 30-50 years in the future. a risk management approach is an effective way to bring the issues associated with climate change to the "here and now". helping decision makers to understand and deal with current levels of climate variability can clearly provide an entry point to the problems posed by increasing variability in the future and to the options that may be needed to deal with it. nevertheless, adaptation is always constrained by the institutional, social, economic and political environment in which people must operate, and these constraints need to be addressed in any comprehensive risk management approach.
Is there any evidence that wildfire will increase warmth?
there is strong evidence that wildfire will increase in a warmer and drier world (figure s7). all direct and indirect drivers investigated have positive, amplifying effects on fire disturbance
Define water availablity?
if water availability will increase with climate warming, dampening effects are likely to offset some of the amplifying effects on fire activity
What are the disturbances from snow ice?
disturbances from snow ice were expected to decrease distinctly under warmer and drier future conditions based on the evidence gathered from the literature. only a positive effect of increasing insect disturbances under these conditions could amplify snow ice disturbances
there is strong evidence that wildfire will increase in a warmer and drier world (figure s7). all direct and indirect drivers investigated have positive, amplifying effects on fire disturbance. neither direct nor indirect pathways had a dampening influence on fire under warmer and drier conditions. furthermore, a strong positive interaction with drought - which is expected to increase under warmer and drier conditions (cf. fig. 3) - is reported in the literature. also wind and insects can be expected to interact with fire activity. these interactions will, however, have a mixed influence on fire as changes in wind disturbances remain uncertain under warmer and drier conditions (fig. 3), and the influence of insects on fire is mixed (tab. s2). if water availability will increase with climate warming, dampening effects are likely to offset some of the amplifying effects on fire activity. however, based on our qualitative analysis positive direct and indirect effects are still likely to exceed dampening effects, and increased water availability could introduce amplifying interactions with wind disturbances. based on our qualitative assessment, wildfires are thus likely the increase under warmer and drier as well as warmer and wetter conditions, and the null hypothesis of no disturbance change has to be rejected. a similar pattern of direct and indirect effects was observed for drought, with strong amplifying effects under warmer and drier conditions, and compensation from negative effects under warmer and wetter conditions (figure s7). interactions from other disturbance agents were not found to significantly influence the response of drought disturbance to climate change. likewise, the response of wind disturbance to a changing climate was not significantly influenced by interaction effects from other disturbance agents. in contrast to fire and drought, wind responded more strongly positively to warmer and wetter conditions, with decreasing water availability resulting in dampening direct and indirect effects. disturbances from snow ice were expected to decrease distinctly under warmer and drier future conditions based on the evidence gathered from the literature. only a positive effect of increasing insect disturbances under these conditions could amplify snow ice disturbances.
Biotic interactions are driving to?
biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. the direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change
The interplay between climate and biotic interactions?
understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. we highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species ' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions
researches conducted to what?
based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems
biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. the direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. we highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species ' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. these patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.
What is climate policy and its foundations on substitution theory about?
assumptions about substitution are critical for distributive justice in climate policy. policies grounded in assumptions of high substitutability are likely to tolerate higher stabilization levels and focus on economic harms. alternately, if human and non-human goods are seen as less substitutable, 'dangerous climate change' is a more proximate concern and lower stabilization levels are likely goals
assumptions about substitution are critical for distributive justice in climate policy. policies grounded in assumptions of high substitutability are likely to tolerate higher stabilization levels and focus on economic harms. alternately, if human and non-human goods are seen as less substitutable, 'dangerous climate change' is a more proximate concern and lower stabilization levels are likely goals. the debate about substitution and the nature of the harms expected with climate change has largely driven the substantial debate about discounting across generations (howarth, 1998; nordhaus, 2001) and contributed to the related debate about setting a 'safe' stabilization level (o'neill and oppenheimer, 2002; dessai et al., 2004; schneider and mastrandrea, 2005; harvey, 2007). it has been strongly argued (howarth, 1998; ott, 2003) that discounting outcomes contravenes the rights of future generations. unlike economics, which incorporates behaviour and preferences in policy recommendations, the central tenet of utilitarianism is equal consideration for all involved in a decision. from this perspective, discounting where there are no substitutes should be zero and, where everything is substitutable, it can be the social discount rate. this part of the debate centres on the comparative weight given to preferences and logic for guiding policy, and is not discussed further in this article.
What type of sample did CIVED used?
cived used a school-based sample; students are grouped within schools
Why does central hypothesis confirmed for civic knowledge ?
for civic knowledge (column 1), we see the central hypothesis confirmed: the more open their classroom climate, the greater students' score on the civic knowledge questions. more precisely, a one standard deviation increase in the openness of the classroom climate leads to an increase of .06 of a standard deviation in civic knowledge or, perhaps more intuitively, a gain of two percentage points
What Violates the structure of the CIVED data?
the structure of the cived data explicitly violates a standard assumption of ordinary least squares regression
estimator the estimation employs a hierarchical linear model (raudenbush and bryk 2002 ), since the structure of the cived data explicitly violates a standard assumption of ordinary least squares regression. rather than a simple random sample of american adolescents, cived used a school-based sample; students are grouped within schools. consequently, we cannot assume that all students are independent of one another, since the model includes aggregate measures that, by design, are the same for every student within a given classroom. a hierarchical estimation accounts for the grouped nature of the data by modeling the intercept of the individual-level equation (level 1) as a function of the school-level variables (level 2). in these hierarchical models, the level 1 intercept has been freed to vary randomly rather than remaining fixed. in order to facilitate comparisons of effect sizes across the variables, all of the continuous and ordinal independent variables have been coded to have a mean and standard deviation of 1.0. their coefficients thus reflect the impact of a one standard-deviation change in that independent variable. the variables have all been centered on their grand means. results table 2 reports the results for the three models. for civic knowledge (column 1), we see the central hypothesis confirmed: the more open their classroom climate, the greater students' score on the civic knowledge questions. more precisely, a one standard deviation increase in the openness of the classroom climate leads to an increase of .06 of a standard deviation in civic knowledge or, perhaps more intuitively, a gain of two percentage points.11this finding's substantive significance is underscored by the fact that these knowledge questions are not tied to the curriculum, and so these results are not the product of ''teaching to the test.'' if there were objective items tied to contemporary politics it is likely that this impact would be more substantial. as expected, the individual's own perception of the classroom climate also has a positiveand significant impact--remember,though, thatthis variablereflects individual students' assessment over and above what their peers say. it remains unclear whether perceiving a lot of political discussion leads to greater engagement, or whether more engaged adolescents perceive more discussion. but since home discussion (which is statistically significant) and news media consumption (which is not) both gauge a young person's general level of political interest, the fact that the impact of classroom climate survives their inclusion in the model is further evidence that it is not simply serving as a proxy for the individual's proclivity toward political engagement. among the other variables, it is worth noting that only one of the district, school, and classroom variables has an impact on civic knowledge, namely the aggregate
Why is it possible to generate predictive models using information on the evolutionary relationships among species (their phylogeny)?
because physiological pathways and responses are likely to be evolutionary conserved (i.e. close relatives share similar traits
Why may phylogeny be an especially powerful approach for understanding phenology?
because it provides a simple method to integrate species differences across multiple traits, which may have complex underlying physiological pathways
Because phylogeny allows us to infer the evolutionary dynamics of trait changes, what questions can this help address?
it can also help address questions regarding the underlying physiological pathways that determine phenology, as well as the ecological and evolutionary pressures that structure communities and drive variation in the timing of events
an evolutionary perspective provides a multi-species approach for plant phenology research. because physiological pathways and responses are likely to be evolutionary conserved (i.e. close relatives share similar traits), it is possible to generate predictive models using information on the evolutionary relationships among species - their phylogeny. phylogeny may be an especially powerful approach for understanding phenology because it provides a simple method to integrate species differences across multiple traits, which may have complex underlying physiological pathways. phylogenetic approaches can map both raw observational phenology data, such as flowering dates, as well as model estimates of how strongly species cue to different environmental variables such as temperature (bolmgren cowan, 2008; willis et al. 2008; davis et al. 2010). in addition, because phylogeny allows us to infer the evolutionary dynamics of trait changes it can also help address questions regarding the underlying physiological pathways that determine phenology, as well as the ecological and evolutionary pressures that structure communities and drive variation in the timing of events. importantly, by placing phenology within an historical evolutionary framework, we can also project forward to predict adaptive potential in
What model used in this study has been widely used and recently evaluated with in-situ data?
the detailed numerical parcel model used in this study has been widely used and recently evaluated with in-situ data (conant et al ., 2004
What two types of aerosols were considered for number concentrations and mode diameters characteristic of tropospheric aerosol?
both single and tri-modal aerosols were considered, for number concentrations and mode diameters characteristic of tropospheric aerosol
What covers the climatically important range of cloud droplet formation conditions?
the updraft velocities used in our evaluation ranges between 0.1 and 3.0 m s-1; together with the wide range of aerosol number concentrations considered, smax varies from 0.01% to over 1%, covering the climatically important range of cloud droplet formation conditions
the sectional formulation of the parameterization, as well as the diffusivity modification were assessed for their ability to reproduce simulations from the adiabatic cloud parcel model of nenes et al ., (2001) over a large range of aerosol size distributions and updraft velocities. the detailed numerical parcel model used in this study has been widely used and recently evaluated with in-situ data (conant et al ., 2004). table 2 shows all the simulation sets used for the evaluation of the parameterization. both single and tri-modal aerosols were considered, for number concentrations and mode diameters characteristic of tropospheric aerosol. for trimodal aerosol, we have selected four of the whitby (1978) trimodal representations, namely the marine, clean continental, average background, and urban aerosol representations (table 3). the updraft velocities used in our evaluation ranges between 0.1 and 3.0 m s-1; together with the wide range of aerosol number concentrations considered, smax varies from 0.01% to over 1%, covering the climatically important range of cloud droplet formation conditions.
What is the 21st century warming trend at CCSM4 in most of the world's oceans? It is stronger on the surface
the twenty-first-century warming trend in ccsm4 over most of the world's oceans is strongest at the surface
Which ocean does the surface warming not occur? Arctic Ocean
the exception is the arctic ocean, where the greatest temperature increases occur in a layer between 100 and 1000 m that corresponds to the depth of atlantic inflow
In relation to other oceans, how does the warming of the Arctic Ocean surface occur? It occurs much more slowly
conversely, the rate of warming is much slower in the arctic ocean's surface layer
the twenty-first-century warming trend in ccsm4 over most of the world's oceans is strongest at the surface and weakens with depth. the exception is the arctic ocean, where the greatest temperature increases occur in a layer between 100 and 1000 m that corresponds to the depth of atlantic inflow (fig. 10). here the warming reaches a maximum of 2.5 k around 400 m in the late twenty-first century. conversely, the rate of warming is much slower in the arctic ocean's surface layer, with a peak temperature gain of less than 0.5 k in the upper 50 m. this enhanced heating of the subsurface is unique in the zonally averaged response across the tropics and midlatitudes, but a weak form of it also occurs at high southern latitudes near antarctica. the cause of the
tell about global climate?
the global climate is changing; along with measuring temperature and co2 level changes that are considered major drivers of climate change, scientists are monitoring changes in the biota
what managed systems do?
managed systems need to be carefully examined for their vulnerability to these changes and potential for adaptive responses by managers (howden et al. 2007
the global climate is changing; along with measuring temperature and co2 level changes that are considered major drivers of climate change, scientists are monitoring changes in the biota. although much attention is paid to potential effects of climate change on  charismatic megafauna  such as polar bears, there is also increasing attention being given to its impact on agricultural production systems, including weeds (howden et al. 2007; hulme, 2009; mcdonald et al. 2009). with the growing inevitability of climate change and the seeming impossibility of reducing co2 emissions quickly (ipcc, 2007), managed systems need to be carefully examined for their vulnerability to these changes and potential for adaptive responses by managers (howden et al. 2007).
who developed the aerosol activation parameterization?
the aerosol activation parameterization developed by nenes and seinfeld (2003
how modified the aerosol activation parameterization ?
i) allow for a lognormal representation of aerosol size distribution, and, ii) include a size-dependant mass transfer coefficient for the growth of water droplets (which explicitly includes the accommodation coefficient). to address this, an average value of the water vapor diffusivity is introduced in the parameterization. two methods were explored for determining the upper and lower bound of the droplet diameter needed for calculating the average water vapor diffusivity
explain Predictions of the modified NS parameterization
predictions of the modified ns parameterization are compared against detailed cloud parcel activation model simulations for a wide variety of aerosol activation conditions. the modified ns parameterization closely tracks the parcel model simulations, even for low values of the accommodation coefficient, without any increase in computational cost. this work offers a much needed rigorous and computationally inexpensive framework for directly linking complex chemical effects on aerosol activation in global climate models. 20 20
the aerosol activation parameterization developed by nenes and seinfeld (2003) was appropriately modified to i) allow for a lognormal representation of aerosol size distribution, and, ii) include a size-dependant mass transfer coefficient for the growth of water droplets (which explicitly includes the accommodation coefficient). to address this, an average value of the water vapor diffusivity is introduced in the parameterization. two methods were explored for determining the upper and lower bound of the droplet diameter needed for calculating the average water vapor diffusivity. the most accurate employs an empirical correlation derived from numerical parcel simulation. predictions of the modified ns parameterization are compared against detailed cloud parcel activation model simulations for a wide variety of aerosol activation conditions. the modified ns parameterization closely tracks the parcel model simulations, even for low values of the accommodation coefficient, without any increase in computational cost. this work offers a much needed rigorous and computationally inexpensive framework for directly linking complex chemical effects on aerosol activation in global climate models. 20 20
What factors change ecosystems?
ecosystems change in response to factors such as climate variability, invasions, and wildfires
Why is it impossible to disentangle natural variability from other in many instances?
in many instances it is impossible to disentangle natural variability from other, potentially significant trends in these records, partly because of their short time scale
What can paleoecological records be used to provide?
paleoecological records can be used to provide a longer temporal perspective to address specific conservation issues relating to biological invasions, wildfires, climate change, and determination of natural variability
ecosystems change in response to factors such as climate variability, invasions, and wildfires. most records used to assess such change are based on short-term ecological data or satellite imagery spanning only a few decades. in many instances it is impossible to disentangle natural variability from other, potentially significant trends in these records, partly because of their short time scale. we summarize recent studies that show how paleoecological records can be used to provide a longer temporal perspective to address specific conservation issues relating to biological invasions, wildfires, climate change, and determination of natural variability. the use of such records can reduce much of the uncertainty surrounding the question of what is " natural " and thereby start to provide important guidance for long-term management and conservation.
The appropriate evaluation of emulator performance depends on what
on the purpose for which the emulator is used
We discuss here various approaches to what .
evaluating emulator performance
. Evaluations are aided by having multiple realizations  for what
for each prediction scenario
the appropriate evaluation of emulator performance depends on the purpose for which the emulator is used. for impacts assessments that have previously relied on global pattern scaling, one possible performance criterion is exceeding the emulation fidelity provided by pattern scaling. other criteria could be that emulation error is small relative to differences in climate projections between aogcms or small relative to initial conditions uncertainty in the emulated aogcm. we discuss here various approaches to evaluating emulator performance. evaluations are aided by having multiple realizations for each prediction scenario, allowing us to distinguish the mean climate trajectories from the stochastic component without assuming our mean model is
What is the experience of  Dr. Pedro Sanchez?
prior to joining the earth institute, dr. pedro sanchez served as director general of the world agroforestry centre (icraf) in nairobi, kenya (1991-2001), with research in 20 countries of africa, latin america and southeast asia
Explain Dr. Pedro Sanchez projects?
he is also professor emeritus of soil science and forestry at north carolina state university, where he led a project that helped peru become selfsufficient in rice in only five years, and helped brazilian scientists to turn over 70 million acres of infertile savanna soils in the cerrado region into the breadbasket of south america. dr. sanchez received his b.s. in agronomy and m.s. and ph.d. in soil science from cornell university
in which year Dr. Pedro Sanchez recipient of World Food Prize and MacArthur Fellowship?
he was the recipient of the 2002 world food prize and a 2003 macarthur fellowship
prior to joining the earth institute, dr. pedro sanchez served as director general of the world agroforestry centre (icraf) in nairobi, kenya (1991-2001), with research in 20 countries of africa, latin america and southeast asia. he is also professor emeritus of soil science and forestry at north carolina state university, where he led a project that helped peru become selfsufficient in rice in only five years, and helped brazilian scientists to turn over 70 million acres of infertile savanna soils in the cerrado region into the breadbasket of south america. dr. sanchez received his b.s. in agronomy and m.s. and ph.d. in soil science from cornell university. he was the recipient of the 2002 world food prize and a 2003 macarthur fellowship.
What is needed to establish characterization of disease-resistant maize?
concerted efforts are required to widely test the available sources of resistance in multiple and relevant environments to expose them to a wide spectrum of pathogen strains and to facilitate identification of the most suitable resistance genes/alleles for use in the breeding programs
What diseases have been prioritized for disease-resistant strains?
gls, tlb (turcicum leaf blight), msv, and ear rots
Pest-resistant strains are being developed against what pests?
stem borers and postharvest insect-pests (weevils and grain borers
significant progress has been made over the decades in the identification of stable genetic resistance for major maize diseases bosque-perez, 2000; dowswell et al. 1996; mcdonald and nicol, 2005; pratt and gordon, 2006; welz and geiger, 2000 ). however, the population structure of most maize pathogens remains inadequately characterized. also, concerted efforts are required to widely test the available sources of resistance in multiple and relevant environments to expose them to a wide spectrum of pathogen strains and to facilitate identification of the most suitable resistance genes/alleles for use in the breeding programs. research at cimmyt is focused on multi-location phenotyping of a common set of 500 maize inbred lines for some prioritized diseases, namely gls, tlb (turcicum leaf blight), msv, and ear rots, across more than 15 locations in sub-saharan africa, latin america, and asia. this will help identify stable sources of resistance to key diseases and identify key phenotyping sites for future research. using a common set of genotypes across environments will also provide the ability to monitor and detect emergence of new pathogen strains that will be registered as shifts in disease pressure and emerging new diseases, and how the environmental characteristics impacts pest biology and prevalence. cimmyt has also developed several insect-pest resistant populations, inbred lines, and varieties, especially for the stem borers and postharvest insect-pests (weevils and grain borers) through projects such as insect resistant maize for africa (irma). in addition, several inbred lines have been developed combining resistance to stem borers and storage pests and these are currently being tested in eastern africa. wide testing of these materials in kenya, tanzania, and uganda is being done under irma.
According to this paragraph, socio-economic changes led to strong changes in what?
socio-economic changes led to strong changes in ignitions or in fuel structure
What are some direct effects on the fuel?
these anthropogenic changes in fuel may be driven by the direct effect on the fuel (for example, logging, and land abandonment
What changes usually occur in parallel with some shifts in climate?
social and economic changes often occur in parallel with some shifts in climate
the influence of humans on fire activity is overwhelming and has been reviewed elsewhere (for example, marlon and others 2008 bowman and others 2011 archibald and others 2012 bird and others 2013 mcwethy and others 2013 ). here, we review cases in which socio-economic changes led to strong changes in ignitions or in fuel structure, both of which may lead to abrupt fire regime shifts. these anthropogenic changes in fuel may be driven by the direct effect on the fuel (for example, logging, and land abandonment) or by indirect effects through changes in ignition patterns (for example, loss of ignitions increase fuels in the landscape). social and economic changes often occur in parallel with some shifts in climate, but the examples selected are those in which most variability in fire regime changes are better attributed to drivers other than climate.
The McCarl approach can be criticised from a theoretical perspective as a result of what?
we have argued above that the mccarl approach can be criticised from a theoretical perspective as a result of being insufficiently clear regarding the objectives of measuring the cost
Costs of research in the UNFCCC report are based on information from which group?
costs of research in the unfccc report are based on information from the consultative group on international agricultural research (cgiar) institutes
There is a close relationship between increases in agricultural productivity and what?
however, there is a close relationship between increases in agricultural productivity and investment in r&d (world bank, 2008), with an average rate of return on investment in agriculture r&d found to be 43% across 1673 studies worldwide
we have argued above that the mccarl approach can be criticised from a theoretical perspective as a result of being insufficiently clear regarding the objectives of measuring the cost. in this section we examine some more detailed aspects of this approach. costs of research in the unfccc report are based on information from the consultative group on international agricultural research (cgiar) institutes. these omit national and privatesector research efforts, both of which may have a different magnitude of costs and cost-benefit ratios, particularly for agricultural research and development (r&d) in developed countries. however, there is a close relationship between increases in agricultural productivity and investment in r&d (world bank, 2008), with an average rate of return on investment in agriculture r&d found to be 43% across 1673 studies worldwide.
What is the resulting health benefits?
mitigating actions that address modes of transport, housingdesign standards, energy generation, and agricultural systems (including livestock production
What will help replace indoor pollution?
improvements in environment-related technologies will help to replace indoor-polluting cooking fuels
what reduces pressure on climate change?
improvements in reproductive literacy will lead to fewer, better-spaced pregnancies; both types of improvement reduce pressures on the climate system
health benefits will result from mitigating actions that address modes of transport, housingdesign standards, energy generation, and agricultural systems (including livestock production). in many poor populations, improvements in environment-related technologies will help to replace indoor-polluting cooking fuels with lowcarbon fuels, and improvements in reproductive literacy will lead to fewer, better-spaced pregnancies; both types of improvement reduce pressures on the climate system.11 all these actions will directly reduce well-known risk factors for disease and premature death (e.g., air pollution, sedentary living, and dietary excesses).48 innovative urban design can have wide-ranging positive effects with regard to energy use, greenhousegas emissions, the effects of urban heat islands, patterns of physical activity, social relations, and community cohesion.
What was solved for the DA-based approach?
for the da-based approach, we solve the state ''update equation
The procedure, as detailed in the appendix, follows what in 2010?
the procedure, as detailed in the appendix, follows huntley and hakim (2010) but with the important generalization that the global-mean temperature is solved separately from the spatial fields
When was the background ensemble that is identical to the date given?
we begin with a background ensemble that is identical to the data given to pca during the calibration
for the da-based approach, we solve the state ''update equation'' [eq. (5)] for an analysis ensemble based upon a background ensemble, pseudoproxies, ensemble estimates of the observations, and error estimates for the background ensemble and the observations. the procedure, as detailed in the appendix, follows huntley and hakim (2010) but with the important generalization that the global-mean temperature is solved separately from the spatial fields, which allows covariance localization to be applied only to the spatially varying part of the field. we begin with a background ensemble that is identical to the data given to pca during the calibration
We can calculate just how far any given climate on earth is outside of what?
we can calculate just how far any given climate on earth is outside the marksim current cluster space
What is the percentage of more than two standard deviations from a calibrated cluster, based on WorldClim?
we can calculate just how far any given climate on earth is outside the marksim current cluster space, and we have found that about 20% are more that two standard deviations from a calibrated cluster, based on worldclim, a 1-km interpolated climate grid for the globe (hijmans et al., 2005
What can be done when a GCM differential puts a point out of the range of MarkSim's simulation clusters?
when a gcm differential puts a point out of the range of marksim's simulation clusters then we can only extrapolate from the nearest climate we have
this does raise a question that we are currently addressing: when does a gcm differential addition take us out of our current cluster space? as yet we do not know. we can calculate just how far any given climate on earth is outside the marksim current cluster space, and we have found that about 20% are more that two standard deviations from a calibrated cluster, based on worldclim, a 1-km interpolated climate grid for the globe (hijmans et al., 2005). there are two points to make here. first, we can improve the current calibration considerably. we already have a wealth of new data to incorporate in the next marksim calibration, and this can be done given appropriate time and resources. second, we need to look carefully at the climates that are going to occur with global warming. this is quite a problem. we have quite good estimates of future climates from gcms, but we have no good estimates of future weather. all downscaling relies on the fact that we have got something here and now to scale it to. when a gcm differential puts a point out of the range of marksim's simulation clusters then we can only extrapolate from the nearest climate we have. we can hope that not that many pixels on the earth fall into that situation in the near future, but for more distant future climates, the situation is highly uncertain.
what are the three levels of multimodel agreement?
we thus categorize three levels of multimodel agreement: 1) the majority of models agree that future changes will be statistically significant and of the same sign 2) the majority of models show significant change but in opposite directions and 3) most of the models show no significant change
what are the worth highlighting conclusions?
apart from this conceptual advance, a few conclusions are worth highlighting. first, in contrast to popular belief, model agreement of future precipitation change is greater than currently thought. only few places in the world show significant changes of opposite sign in different models. second, despite a clear anthropogenic largescale signal, projections of precipitation at the grid point scale for the next few decades are not significant for most regions. arguing about model consistency of the sign of the signal is misplaced in this context. third, there are large regions where we are quite confident that anthropogenically forced changes are likely to be small in the next few decades, information that is no doubt useful for adaptation
what is generic approach?
we hope that researchers can take this generic approach and fill in the steps having to do with the definition of significance and the definition of agreement in the way that best suit their analysis ' foci and goals. figure 2. (left) early (2020) and (right) late (2090) century projections of december to february precipitation change from eight initial condition ensemble members of the ncar ccsm3, for (a) the ar4 spm and (b) our new method
we propose a succinct and intuitive way to display changes and agreement among models in a multimodel ensemble that clearly separates lack of signal from lack of information due to model disagreement. we thus categorize three levels of multimodel agreement: 1) the majority of models agree that future changes will be statistically significant and of the same sign 2) the majority of models show significant change but in opposite directions and 3) most of the models show no significant change. the basic idea is that testing for model agreement is only meaningful if the models are producing significant changes, i.e., changes outside of internal variability. apart from this conceptual advance, a few conclusions are worth highlighting. first, in contrast to popular belief, model agreement of future precipitation change is greater than currently thought. only few places in the world show significant changes of opposite sign in different models. second, despite a clear anthropogenic largescale signal, projections of precipitation at the grid point scale for the next few decades are not significant for most regions. arguing about model consistency of the sign of the signal is misplaced in this context. third, there are large regions where we are quite confident that anthropogenically forced changes are likely to be small in the next few decades, information that is no doubt useful for adaptation. obviously, the details of our analysis depend on the spatial resolution adopted, which we chose here as t42 (about 250 by 250 km in grid box size), the same resolution that was adopted to process and display multimodel results in the last ipcc report ' s spm. this paper focuses on a methodology that is as simple and transparent as possible. we do not address issues of dependency among models, model evaluation or weighting, or more sophisticated approaches to characterizing significant change at the grid point or the field level, neither do we address explicitly the problem of multiple comparisons when testing a field grid point by grid point (except to say that an application of the false discovery ratio methodology ventura et al. 2004] did not change our results in any appreciable way). we hope that researchers can take this generic approach and fill in the steps having to do with the definition of significance and the definition of agreement in the way that best suit their analysis ' foci and goals. figure 2. (left) early (2020) and (right) late (2090) century projections of december to february precipitation change from eight initial condition ensemble members of the ncar ccsm3, for (a) the ar4 spm and (b) our new method.
In which country, among others, are quality newspapers emphasizing news about climate change? A: United Kingdom.
coverage of climate change in the united kingdom (uk) 'quality' newspapers has continuously risen since 2004 to a level that is over double that of any previous peaks (boykoff and rajan, 2007
Information on climate change directly influences public opinion at various levels. Which of these levels motivated the American Petroleum Institute coalition to invest $ 600,000 in 1998 on this? Answer: The political influence of information given by the media.
what is written in the media influences public perceptions and thence policy: it matters. clearly this is what motivated a coalition headed by the american petroleum institute to invest us$600,000 in 1998 in a campaign aiming to increase the volume of us news coverage questioning the prevailing climate science
What is the main stage for debates on climate change mentioned in the paragraph? Answer: The mass media.
the mass media is a critical arena for this debate, and an important source of climate change information for the public (bell, 1994; wilson, 2000
climate change is big news, bigger news than ever before. coverage of climate change in the united kingdom (uk) 'quality' newspapers has continuously risen since 2004 to a level that is over double that of any previous peaks (boykoff and rajan, 2007). yet climate change is still a contested issue in all its dimensions - scientific, political, economic and social (carvalho, 2003). the mass media is a critical arena for this debate, and an important source of climate change information for the public (bell, 1994; wilson, 2000). what is written in the media influences public perceptions and thence policy: it matters. clearly this is what motivated a coalition headed by the american petroleum institute to invest us$600,000 in 1998 in a campaign aiming to increase the volume of us news coverage questioning the prevailing climate science (cushman, new york times, 26.4.98).
What helps to constrain climate sensitivity?
the oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity
What is neccesary to estimate uncertainty in the long-term?
estimation of the uncertainty in long-term climate projections requires estimates of the probability density functions (pdfs) of key properties of the climate system
What is used to estimate the near term climate changes?
for near-term climate change, recent studies 3 have applied the uncertainty estimates derived from the climate change detection algorithm for particular models to climate projections based on these models
we derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. on the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and  0.30 to  0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. the oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. the uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the intergovernmental panel on climate change third assessment report. estimation of the uncertainty in long-term climate projections requires estimates of the probability density functions (pdfs) of key properties of the climate system. attempts thus far 1 2 have used pdfs based on expert judgment to analyze such uncertainty. for near-term climate change, recent studies 3 have applied the uncertainty estimates derived from the climate change detection algorithm for particular models to climate projections based on these models. a key assumption in this approach is that both forcing and response do not change qualitatively between observed and forecast periods. hence, it is not applicable to modeled climate change under scenarios that differ substantially from the recent past (e.g., stabilization cases or severe changes in sulfur emissions). given the political priority to establish what constitutes a "safe" stabilization level for greenhouse gases, an objective means of quantifying uncertainty in the long-term response, despite uncertainty in other forcings, is clearly desirable. these problems can be addressed in large part by determining both the range of climate system properties and the range of forcings that produce simulations consistent with
What are the three notions of means?
three notions of means: available means, employed means and necessary means
What two types of receptors are referenced?
receptors can be both biophysical entities (e.g. the crops of a famer) and social systems (e.g. the farmer household
What is the difference between actions and processes, as explained in the paragraph?
there are, of course, many social phenomena that are not purposeful. in this case, we do not call them actions, but mere processes. processes are sequences of events in time that may occur in a biophysical, technical or social entity or system. they can be framed as being linked through causality, that is, in a mechanistic way. actions are a special class of social processes that additionally have a teleological component
the actor or system that is the target of an adaptation (the purpose) is called the receptor receptors can be both biophysical entities (e.g. the crops of a famer) and social systems (e.g. the farmer household), depending on the objective of analysis. it is further not required that the receptor of an adaptation is an exposure unit at the same time. this is a crucial point that will become clear in what follows. we illustrate this with the early warning system example introduced above. the operator is a public body that runs the system. it receives weather forecasts and transmits them to the public in an accessible way. the purpose of that adaptation is to reduce harm to individual transport users (that can decide to use other modes of transportation or avoid travelling in the case of a warning). the intention is to change behavior of transport users, making them the receptors. the public body is not the exposure unit (it is not affected by heavy rain); the receptors of the early warning system are the exposure units. the emphasis on the purpose of an action requires further comment. there are, of course, many social phenomena that are not purposeful. in this case, we do not call them actions, but mere processes. processes are sequences of events in time that may occur in a biophysical, technical or social entity or system. they can be framed as being linked through causality, that is, in a mechanistic way. actions are a special class of social processes that additionally have a teleological component (cf. weber 1922, and the discussion in the next section). to implement the adaptation, the operator needs resources, here called means these could be access to financial or other material resources, legal power, social networks, knowledge, or availability of information. action is further shaped by constraints and resources that cannot be controlled by the operator. these are called the conditions (cf. parsons 1937, see next section). in the example, the primary means employed by the operator of the early warning system is the information that is provided to the receptors. further means involved are the public funding and the education of the people running the system, but these are not channeled directly to the transport users. as an example of a condition, we can cite the attitudes of the receptors toward the early warning system: do they actually listen to the forecasts? do they trust the forecasts? does the information they are given lead to behavioral change? another is the institutional and legal context: is there stable funding for the early warning system? are operators liable if forecasts are incorrect? it is helpful to further differentiate three notions of means: available means, employed means and necessary means available means are those that are disposable by the operator, while the employed means is that part that is actually used for a specific adaptation. that does not imply that the adaptation is effective, since success requires the use of the necessary means - which might be available or not. it is important to note that these three types of means are not necessarily identical. 7
what is control scenario?
the control scenario (section 4.2.2) is constructed in the same way as a climate change scenario (section 4.2.3), but omitting the spatial pattern of anthropogenic climate change
Explain the principle of construction scenarios?
4.2.1 principles of construction scenarios of future climate are conventionally constructed from unmodified gcm outputs, perhaps after interpolation onto a more convenient grid
What are the different approach?
a different approach is adopted here, for three reasons: * there are insufficient gcm simulations available to represent each of the 16 scenarios
to obtain b1 one may substitute b 1 for a 1 fi and b 2 for a 2 in the above equation. 4.2 method the principles that guided the construction of the scenarios are described first (section 4.2.1). the control scenario (section 4.2.2) is constructed in the same way as a climate change scenario (section 4.2.3), but omitting the spatial pattern of anthropogenic climate change. the key equations are 18 (control) and 19 (climate change), which are discussed in their respective sections. 4.2.1 principles of construction scenarios of future climate are conventionally constructed from unmodified gcm outputs, perhaps after interpolation onto a more convenient grid. a different approach is adopted here, for three reasons: * there are insufficient gcm simulations available to represent each of the 16 scenarios.
Why is a case study focused on the service area of the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA), a wholesale water and wastewater provider in Riverside County, southern California (Figure 8), presented?
to demonstrate how the climate change data derived from the bayesian-k-nn approach described above can be utilized in a water planning model to inform water planning decisions
What does the present analysis represent?
this analysis represents a subset of work performed in collaboration with ieua staff members and focuses on illustrating the range of impacts that climate may have on the water system. work examining new approaches to interpreting this information figure 5
What can be found on the right portion of graph?
right portion of graph are the k-nn simulated time series of annual precipitation, given as box plots for all realizations k 20
to demonstrate how the climate change data derived from the bayesian-k-nn approach described above can be utilized in a water planning model to inform water planning decisions, we present a case study focused on the service area of the inland empire utilities agency (ieua), a wholesale water and wastewater provider in riverside county, southern california (figure 8). this analysis represents a subset of work performed in collaboration with ieua staff members and focuses on illustrating the range of impacts that climate may have on the water system. work examining new approaches to interpreting this information figure 5. winter precipitation (december, january, and february) for the historic period (1980 through 2003) with a (left graph) trend and loess lines and summarized as a (far left) box plot. right portion of graph are the k-nn simulated time series of annual precipitation, given as box plots for all realizations k 20). the thick, light-colored line is the aogcm ensemble climate change estimate relative to the historic mean.
How can you shorten the drying cycles?
n the case of treatment plants that dewater the sludge on drying 776 anaerobic reactors beds, wastage frequencies and solids loads to the beds leading to shorter drying cycles can be evaluated
What reduces the volume of dry sludge to be transported to final disposal?
hence, an optimised sludge wastage and dewatering will directly imply a reduced volume of dry sludge to be transported to final disposa
what cause a better effluent quality of suspended solids and particles.
an adequate wastage frequency will reflect directly on a smaller loss of solids in the final effluent, resulting in a better effluent quality in terms of suspended solids and particulate cod and bod, with a direct impact on the compliance with the environmental legislation
determination of the best wastage and dewatering routine for the excess sludge. in the case of treatment plants that dewater the sludge on drying 776 anaerobic reactors beds, wastage frequencies and solids loads to the beds leading to shorter drying cycles can be evaluated. hence, an optimised sludge wastage and dewatering will directly imply a reduced volume of dry sludge to be transported to final disposal. an adequate wastage frequency will reflect directly on a smaller loss of solids in the final effluent, resulting in a better effluent quality in terms of suspended solids and particulate cod and bod, with a direct impact on the compliance with the environmental legislation.
Why does precipitation show the largest variability in the southeast United States?
large convective precipitation occurs, while the 850-hpa geopotential height variability is largest in the northeast part of the domain corresponding to the downstream region. evaluation of the time evolution of the synoptic patterns suggests that the maxima of variability in precipitation and 850-hpa geopotential height may be linked
What is the minimum required number of members in this climatological sample?
our results indicate that a minimum number of 10 members are required for a robust estimation of a seasonal-mean value for midlatitude summer in certain areas where larger internal variability develops within the large domains
the purpose of this work was to describe and assess the importance of the internal variability in a nested rcm. to this aim, ensembles of 20 simulations were performed over five different domain sizes. each of the 20 simulations was driven by the same set of timedependent lbcs taken from ncep-ncar reanalyses using prescribed ssts. the different members of the ensembles were initialized at 1-day intervals; the simulations were performed with the canadian rcm (crcm) for one summer season over the east coast of north america. internal variability is defined as the spread between the members during the integration period. the results show that internal variability depends strongly on synoptic events, as seen by the pulsating behavior of its time evolution. internal variability displays a preferential region within the domain, depending on the variable. for example, precipitation, which is a difficult variable to simulate accurately (kunkel et al. 2002), shows the largest variability in the southeast united states, where large convective precipitation occurs, while the 850-hpa geopotential height variability is largest in the northeast part of the domain corresponding to the downstream region. evaluation of the time evolution of the synoptic patterns suggests that the maxima of variability in precipitation and 850-hpa geopotential height may be linked: the former, mostly located in the southeast united states, acts as a triggering mechanism for the latter, which continues to develop along the storm track and reaches its maximum toward the northeast of the domain. this study confirms earlier results that internal variability increases with domain size. the study also shows that changes to the domain size may alter considerably the geographical distribution of the internal variability. the repercussions of internal variability are also felt on seasonal-mean quantities. this suggests that oneseason statistics of simulated fields, especially precipitation, may be poorly estimated from a single simulation. our results indicate that a minimum number of 10 members are required for a robust estimation of a seasonal-mean value for midlatitude summer in certain areas where larger internal variability develops within the large domains. the study suggests that a reduction of the domain size generally results in a significant reduction of the differences between the members' statistics. there remain, however, regions with substantial internal variability magnitude, even at the seasonal scale. a closer look at the evolution of the members in the ensembles reveals the occasional occurrence of bimodal solutions for the largest domains, during episodes of large internal variability. model bimodal solutions could be the consequence of dynamical conditions that favor certain states (lorenz 1963; plu and arbogast 2005), or could simply be the effect of poor sampling of the distribution with only 20 members. in any case, it is
How are the results relevant to the existing risk literature on whether psychological distance on climate change relates to levels of public concern?
whether psychological distance on climate change relates to levels of public concern, which is often used as an indicator of risk perception
What is the significance of CLT?
clt points to the importance of psychological distance in promoting action
What do the findings point to overall?
overall, our findings point to the utility of risk communication techniques designed to reduce psychological distance and to engage the general public with climate change
our results also have relevance for the existing risk literature on whether psychological distance on climate change relates to levels of public concern, which is often used as an indicator of risk perception. results indicated that generally lower psychological distance was associated with higher concern about climate change. our data imply that, in order to promote concern about climate change, risk communications should focus on making climate change psychologically closer and make potential climate change impacts relevant to individuals' social group, locality, and lifetime. here, considerations of distant impacts and impacts on developing countries were not so important. we must caution that all relationships observed here are examined within crosssectional data and therefore causality cannot be identified, only assumed. in relation to promoting action on climate change, relevant psychological distance considerations were slightly different. our data indicate that, as with relationships with concern, making climate change relevant to the audience's locality and social groups is important in promoting action, as is reducing uncertainty over whether climate change is happening and reducing the perceived temporal distance of effects. however, here the perceived impacts on developing countries were much more important. so here, actually, the greater the disproportionate impacts on distant developing countries that were perceived in relation to climate change (i.e., the greater the psychological distance), the more people were prepared to undertake sustainable behavior. this indicates that whilst personal, local, closer considerations of climate change are important in promoting concern about climate change, when it comes to promoting action, it may also be important to highlight the wider, global impacts of climate change. this is congruent with earlier studies that find that respondents actually tend to perceive climate change impacts to be more serious at distant locations(35)as well as with theoretical predictions drawn from clt. clt points to the importance of psychological distance in promoting action.(4)previous evidence has demonstrated that focusing on distance helps people to make decisions that are more in line with their core beliefs. focusing on the implications of climate change for distant developing countries may therefore help people gain perspective on their actions, which may help to explain why these perceptions relate to preparedness to act but not to concern about climate change. of course, we also found that elements of psychological closeness are important in promoting action, which does not support previous theorizing within clt. in another way, it could be considered that psychological closeness could be related to stronger intentions to act, if thinking specifically about climate change impacts in terms of a local context might reduce ambiguities about how to act on climate change.(26)psychological closeness and a focus on specific detailed aspects of the situation are highlighted as important for increasing the likelihood of action within goal setting theory. goal setting theory would suggest that considering psychologically close impacts of climate change should help to direct attention and effort towards relevant actions, can activate task relevant knowledge, and may energize the individual and increase persistence on actions attempted. it appears therefore that our results indicating that both psychological closeness and psychological distance are important in encouraging people to act on climate change supports elements of both clt and goal setting theory. this also supports the findings of rabinovitch et al .,(34)which indicate that a combination of both an mindset and specific goals may have most utility in promoting climate, change, related behavior. indeed, as discussed earlier, predictions of clt and goal setting theory are not necessarily incompatible given the slightly differing focus of each (clt focusing on translating core values into behavior and goal setting theory focusing on translating intentions into action). we do want to highlight that we examined only behavioral intentions here, not actual behavior, which might benefit from a psychological distance or closeness that we cannot examine here. notably, we find that concern has the strongest relationship with preparedness to act, greatly reducing the influence of psychological distance dimensions on preparedness to act (and acting as a significant partial mediator of this relationship). however, certain key psychological distance variables retained significant relationships with preparedness to act over and above concern about climate change, indicating that communications regarding psychological distance may be useful for a range of sectors of society, including those who already express high concern on climate change. 5. conclusions current discussions and debate on climate change frequently refer to the psychological distance of climate change. however, there has been little 14 spence, poortinga, and pidgeon in-depth empirical analysis of the operation of this perceived distance and only limited transfer of these ideas to risk communication strategies. our results indicate that the u.k. public really perceives climate change as global, being both distant and local in nature. we observe differences in levels of uncertainty about different aspects of climate change and note that there is a possibility of transfer between different aspects of uncertainty, highlighting the problematic nature of media representations of apparent public uncertainty over climate change. overall, our findings point to the utility of risk communication techniques designed to reduce psychological distance and to engage the general public with climate change. however, we note that certain aspects of psychological distance, particularly considerations of the potentially very serious distant impacts of climate change, may also be useful in promoting sustainable behavior. acknowledgments this research was supported by a research grant from the economic and social research council (res-062-23-1134) as well as a climate change leader fellowship (res-066-27-0013) and a major grant to the understanding risk research group from the leverhulme trust (f/00 407/ag). additional support was received from horizon digital economy research, rcuk grant (ep/g065802/1).
What are three ways that adaptation approaches can be tailored to a changing circumstance?
through a management system that allows for a diversity of answers to a single question, redundancy in adaptation options (several different parallel efforts toward a similar goal), and a willingness to change focus or pathways mid-stream
Why must we develop tools and methodologies for strategic and managerial flexibility?
to improve the quality and expectations of flexibility
Who is involved in developing tools for flexibility?
several development implementing agencies, ngos, csos and other actors
adaptation approaches can be tailored to changing circumstances through a management system that allows for a diversity of answers to a single question, redundancy in adaptation options (several different parallel efforts toward a similar goal), and a willingness to change focus or pathways mid-stream. therefore, monitoring and reporting structures must be designed to accommodate this multiplicity of pathways to success. several development implementing agencies, ngos, csos and other actors have recognized this need for strategic and managerial flexibility, and have developed, or are developing, tools and methodologies to improve the quality and expectations of flexibility.30 box 2 describes the flexible model employed by the watershed organisation trust in india for watershed management, which now incorporates climate change adaptation.
latent heating In the mid-latitudes occurs where?
in the mid-latitudes, latent heating occurs predominantly in the wcb region of cyclones, where warm air moves upward and water vapour condenses
the effect of latent heating on eddies?
to leading order, the effect of latent heating on eddies may be represented by a reduced mean static stability79, but recent results suggest a larger role when small-scale processes are better resolved in models69
what contributes to half of the poleward energy transport in mid-latitudes?
latent heating shapes vertical stratification and baroclinicity26,80, and latent heat transport by storm tracks contributes approximately half of the poleward energy transport in mid-latitudes14
in the mid-latitudes, latent heating occurs predominantly in the wcb region of cyclones, where warm air moves upward and water vapour condenses. it intensifies the cyclonic circulation78, which suggests that increased latent heating in a warmer climate will have a strengthening effect on cyclones. to leading order, the effect of latent heating on eddies may be represented by a reduced mean static stability79, but recent results suggest a larger role when small-scale processes are better resolved in models69. latent heating shapes vertical stratification and baroclinicity26,80, and latent heat transport by storm tracks contributes approximately half of the poleward energy transport in mid-latitudes14. a comprehensive review of the role of latent heating can be found in ref. 80.
What is the area of Danube catchment?
its area comprises about 8,07,000 km2
What were integrated over the whole catchment area?
all the atmospheric variables were integrated over the whole catchment area
Why are the biases in the water balances and the deviations from ERA data in the energy balance analyzed separately?
as the problems showing up over the danube catchment are relatively complex and behave differently in each model, the biases in the water balances and the deviations from era data in the energy balance are analyzed separately
the location of the danube catchment is shown in fig. 1. its area comprises about 8,07,000 km2and an annual mean discharge of 6435 m3/s (203 km3/a) is observed at a measurement station near the mouth of the river. all the atmospheric variables were integrated over the whole catchment area. thus, in the following, all the water fluxes will be expressed in mm/month instead of a volume flux unit. as the problems showing up over the danube catchment are relatively complex and behave differently in each model, the biases in the water balances and the deviations from era data in the energy balance are analyzed separately in sect. 4.2 after the different simulated variables of all models are directly compared to each other and to observations in sect. 4.1. over the baltic sea catchment (sect. 5), the model biases are much more similar so that, here, a detailed discussion for each model is not necessary. table 3 summarizes the results of this section based on table 4 that shows the annual mean water budget for each model as well as for the observations, and on a qualitatively judgement of the monthly means and biases. as d ws is zero for all models, this indicates that the hydrological cycle has been close to equilibrium over the danube catchment at the start of the model simulations. 4.1 intercomparison between the models fig. 2 shows the simulated precipitation of the models compared to cru observations. for all models except arpege the summer drying problem can clearly be seen. with arpege, there is very little indication of the drying problem shown in the danube catchment, only june and august have negative precipitation biases. remo and chrm show the largest drying problem
How does the swings and roundabouts argument apply?
second, the swings and roundabouts argument cannot apply intergenerationally. losers in the present generation have no hope of being winners in any subsequent generation. thirdly, there is not, and can never be, any inter-temporal government that can adjust the intergenerational income distribution in accordance with any trans-generational views on what would be an equitable intergenerational distribution of welfare
it is generally accepted that although actual compensation is necessary, in principle, to ensure that any move is pareto-optimising, this is invariably impossible in practice (and perhaps in theory as well), so that one must fall back on one or other of two defences of the procedure. the first is that in a large society with lots of projects carried out, it can be assumed that losers on some projects are likely to be gainers on others. the second defence is that, anyway, the socially desired distribution of income in any democratic society is in the hands of the government and if, for one reason or another (including a bias in the projects selected), it is desirable to change the distribution, this can always be done via appropriate taxes and benefits. however, these defences are not available for climate change, where policy creates winners and losers between generations and intergenerational compensation is not possible. first, future generations that may benefit from any current policies cannot compensate those today who may bear the costs of the policy. second, the swings and roundabouts argument cannot apply intergenerationally. losers in the present generation have no hope of being winners in any subsequent generation. thirdly, there is not, and can never be, any inter-temporal government that can adjust the intergenerational income distribution in accordance with any trans-generational views on what would be an equitable intergenerational distribution of welfare.
What leads to local extinction events?
both land use change and climate change can lead to local extinction events
What is a modification interaction effect?
the effect of climate change on degree of species' range shift depends on land use in intervening regions
some species exist in metapopulations or patchy populations, whereby local extinctions of sub-populations may occur relatively frequently, but these are recolonized through dispersal from occupied patches. both land use change and climate change can lead to local extinction events. theory has shown that when the proportion of patches falls below a threshold level, the extinction of the entire metapopulation can rapidly follow.145,146therefore, even if the effects of land use and climate change are additive for any individual population, the total combined effects may lead to multiplicative effects on metapopulation extinction risk (figure 3(b)). all the above mechanisms might contribute to the combined effects of climate and land use change on biodiversity described earlier. for example, in the case of climate change causing species' range changes, land use causes a modification interaction effect (meaning that the effect of climate change on degree of species' range shift depends on land use in intervening regions71). the mechanisms underlying this may be due to demographics (i.e., growth and death rates vary between land use types and also with climate.128), evolutionary effects (i.e., selection for dispersal and fecundity dependent on habitat structure35,147), threshold effects of population size (i.e., smaller, low quality habitat patches with smaller populations have higher extinction risk143,144) and threshold effects of metapopulation persistence (i.e., populations in fragmented landscapes have higher metapopulation extinction risk.145,146
What are the main mechanisms that remove organic matter and solids?
the main mechanisms through which organic matter and solids are removed are biological oxidation, sedimentation and filtration
What differentiates this method from others?
the main characteristic that differentiates this method from the others is the fact that the effluent flows downward on a slightly inclined vegetated ramp and the remaining water (effluent), which is neither absorbed nor evaporated, is collected downstream and directed for disposal
What is the main result of this process?
a treated effluent and a revitalised soil are obtained as a final result of this process, since the compounds generated by the microorganisms can be beneficial for the growth of plants and vegetables
land disposal of sewage is an ancient practice, in which filtration and the action of microorganisms take place. the microorganisms have the capacity to convert the organic matter into simpler compounds. a treated effluent and a revitalised soil are obtained as a final result of this process, since the compounds generated by the microorganisms can be beneficial for the growth of plants and vegetables. the main methods that use the soil for treatment and/or final disposal of sewage are briefly described in section 4.5.3. the current section covers only overland flow systems as a means of posttreatment of effluents from uasb reactors. a detailed description, the typical configuration and the main design criteria for the other systems can be found in coraucci filho et al (2001). sewage treatment by the overland flow method is the one that presents the least dependence on the types of soil. in this method, the vegetation, associated with the top soil layer, acts as a filter, removing the nutrients and providing conditions for the retention and transformation of the organic matter contained in the sewage. besides that, it protects the soil against erosion and creates a support layer on which the microorganisms settle. the main mechanisms through which organic matter and solids are removed are biological oxidation, sedimentation and filtration. the main characteristic that differentiates this method from the others is the fact that the effluent flows downward on a slightly inclined vegetated ramp and the remaining water (effluent), which is neither absorbed nor evaporated, is collected downstream and directed for disposal. for more permeable soils, the process is similar to that of irrigation, but with the generation of effluent. in comparison with other land disposal methods, overland flow presents the following characteristics as its main advantages (coraucci filho et al ., 2001):
Did the mistake of carrying out simulations with mean values affect resulting distributions of atmospheric CO2?
while this mistake did not affect the resulting distributions of atmospheric co2
What did the mistake  of carrying out simulations with mean values affect?
it led to an upward shift in the distributions for the changes in surface air temperature (sat) and sea level rise
the simulations with economic uncertainty discussed in section 4b of sokolov et al. (2009) were, by mistake, carried out with the mean values of the input climate parameters instead of the intended median values. while this mistake did not affect the resulting distributions of atmospheric co2 and radiative forcing, it led to an upward shift in the distributions for the changes in surface air temperature (sat) and sea level rise. correct distributions are shown in table 1 and in the revised version of fig. 11. the ratios of the percentiles to the mean shown in table 2 of sokolov et al. (2009) did not change.
What type of bees are being defended in France?
in france, there are therefore those who defend the local dark race, as these ecotypes are well adapted to their biotope, whilst others choose to import and use hybrid bees to ensure better harvests
How are the queen bees raised?
they raise their queens from just a few of their best strains, which reduces the genetic diversity of the honey bee population and so weakens the bees' defences against various pathogens
What is molecular biology a useful tool for?
molecular biology is a useful tool for measuring the genetic diversity of honey bee populations and linking it with their adaptability to climate change and to different pathogens (40
french beekeepers have imported honey bees from virtually the world over. interracial hybrids, bred by artificially inseminating queens, can produce yields up to double those of the black honey bee apis mellifera mellifera (11). royal jelly producers are working with foreign races because the french dark bee is highly productive (16). a network for importing foreign queens has therefore been established in france for a very long time. however, these hybrids and other races are often less well-adapted and more susceptible to disease than local races. in france, there are therefore those who defend the local dark race, as these ecotypes are well adapted to their biotope, whilst others choose to import and use hybrid bees to ensure better harvests. the result of these opposing trends is wide genetic diversity in france, owing to continuing hybrid imports and to the genetic pollution of local honey bees. in north america, it is prohibited to import queen bees for health reasons. in spite of the huge sums spent on preventing such imports, american honey bees have more diseases than european ones. in the usa, a few large-scale queen bee breeders are responsible for renewing the stock, with each breeder selling hundreds of thousands of queens. they raise their queens from just a few of their best strains, which reduces the genetic diversity of the honey bee population and so weakens the bees' defences against various pathogens. in a global warming perspective, france's situation is assuredly a more comfortable one, as french honey bees are endowed with greater genetic diversity and therefore have greater adaptive potential. the same is not necessarily true of other european countries that ban imports and select their stock rigorously. this is an idea to be considered in the context of the spontaneous emergence of lines of varroa -resistant honey bees, as has occurred in france with the emergence of honey bee colonies that have survived for more than ten years without any treatment against the varroa mite (19). however, countries that select their honey bees and import very few, such as germany and the usa, have not yet detected any varroa mite resistance in their honey bees. molecular biology is a useful tool for measuring the genetic diversity of honey bee populations and linking it with their adaptability to climate change and to different pathogens (40). genomics is another useful tool that has become available following the recent sequencing of the bee genome (39), which will enable us to gain a better understanding of the co-evolution mechanisms between honey bees and their pathogens (26). a deeper understanding of these mechanisms will lead to better management of honey bee populations and to the detection of the genes involved in new bee phenotypes.
What is the model similar to?
the model is similar to that proposed by bains et al (2000) for termination of the petm
What does the detailed investigation of cyclic pelagic sediments from the Pliensbachian-Toarcian of north Italy indicate?
detailed investigation of cyclic pelagic sediments from the pliensbachian-toarcian of north italy indicate a change in the dominant orbital-climatic frequencies recognized, with a shift from precession to precession/eccentricity in the latest pliensbachian to precession/eccentricity and obliquity during the enuicostatum falciferum zones and obliquity only in younger strata (hinnov park 1999
What does the transition from one dominant frequency to another correlates?
this transition from one dominant frequency to another hence correlates with temperature change and the oceanic anoxic event, reinforcing the interpretation of this interval of time as a period of global climatic reorganization
rapid climate change in the greenhouse world 1899 tration of nutrients, thus returning the ocean-atmosphere system to equilibrium (jenkyns 1999): the model is similar to that proposed by bains et al (2000) for termination of the petm. the time-scale for the later toarcian cooling, if the stratigraphic record is not distorted by being unduly expanded, was considerably longer than for the temperature rise (figure 4). detailed investigation of cyclic pelagic sediments from the pliensbachian-toarcian of north italy indicate a change in the dominant orbital-climatic frequencies recognized, with a shift from precession to precession/eccentricity in the latest pliensbachian to precession/eccentricity and obliquity during the enuicostatum falciferum zones and obliquity only in younger strata (hinnov park 1999). this transition from one dominant frequency to another hence correlates with temperature change and the oceanic anoxic event, reinforcing the interpretation of this interval of time as a period of global climatic reorganization.
What should the initial classification of a project require?
the initial classification of a project should only require a very modest investment of a task manager's time, assuming that the proposed climate risk management knowledge base exists, is readily accessible, and covers the project area and sector
How many elements should the screening be based on?
we suggest that the screening should be based upon an evaluation of the following three elements
How should the screening process to classify projects proceed?
the screening process to classify projects in any of these four categories should be very straightforward
the screening process to classify projects in any of these four categories should be very straightforward. once routinely included in project preparation, the initial classification of a project should only require a very modest investment of a task manager's time, assuming that the proposed climate risk management knowledge base exists, is readily accessible, and covers the project area and sector. in the more complex cases, or where information is lacking, technical assistance and advice can be provided (for instance through the global climate change team). we suggest that the screening should be based upon an evaluation of the following three elements:
where does monthly data and biologically relevant climate variables derived from?
the relationships between monthly data and biologically relevant climate variables derived from daily weather station data could generally be well described by the piecewise functions or nonlinear functions (figs 4 and 5 
what is represented in the table 3?
the amount of variance explained and the prediction errors for all biologically relevant climate variables derived from observed daily climate data are listed in table 3
what is the range of R2,in case of predictive accuracy of monthly variable?
the predictive accuracy of monthly variables for derived variables is very high with r2values larger than 0.95
the relationships between monthly data and biologically relevant climate variables derived from daily weather station data could generally be well described by the piecewise functions or nonlinear functions (figs 4 and 5 ). however, the relationships showed distinct patterns between the west and the east for growing degree days (dd 5degc) and between the southwest and the rest for dd 18degc. thus, the functions for these two variables were built separately by region to better capture relationships as illustrated in fig 5 the amount of variance explained and the prediction errors for all biologically relevant climate variables derived from observed daily climate data are listed in table 3 the functions s1 file and their parameters as well as the results of evaluations s1 - s6 tables) are listed in the supporting information. in most cases, the predictive accuracy of monthly variables for derived variables is very high with r2values larger than 0.95 s1 - s5 tables). we expect that accuracies for derived variables that are derived for individual months is somewhat lower than for annual derived variables, and that is generally confirmed (note that the annual maes must
What influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes?
climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes
What were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures?
regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both pacific and atlantic sea surface temperatures
What was associated with fewer fires than expected?
the opposite pattern (el nin~ o, warm pdo, cool amo) was associated with fewer fires than expected
climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. here, i compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the black hills of southwestern south dakota and northeastern wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both pacific and atlantic sea surface temperatures. fires were synchronous with la nin~ as, cool phases of the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo), and warm phases of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (amo). these quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western united states. the opposite pattern (el nin~ o, warm pdo, cool amo) was associated with fewer fires than expected. regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the moran effect. the presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the black hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the southwest that burned more often.
What did the study examine?
this study examined how social sharing and participating in secular political rituals regarding the march-eleven (m-11) 2004 train bombings
Where did the March-Eleven train attack take place in 2004?
this study examined how social sharing and participating in secular political rituals regarding the march-eleven (m-11) 2004 train bombings in madrid, spain
Which audiences were answered by the questionnaire?
a questionnaire was completed by college students (63% of sample) and their relatives (37%) (n 661) from five spanish regions and eight universities at 1, 3, and 8 weeks after the bombing
this study examined how social sharing and participating in secular political rituals regarding the march-eleven (m-11) 2004 train bombings in madrid, spain, helps to cope with the wounds of trauma and enhances the reconstruction of a positive emotional climate. a questionnaire was completed by college students (63% of sample) and their relatives (37%) (n 661) from five spanish regions and eight universities at 1, 3, and 8 weeks after the bombing. participating in demonstrations and experiencing a positive emotional climate, as reported a week after m-11, predicted the degree of social support and positive affect as well as the amount of posttraumatic growth reported at the 3-week period. demonstrations (indirectly) and social sharing (directly) predict positive emotional climate 2 months after the attack. participation in protest rituals or demonstrations, coupled with elections and changes in government office, helps overcome the effects of collective trauma and leads to an improvement of the emotional climate in the aftermath of a terrorist attack. participating in ceremonies and rituals reinforces social cohesion and can be conceived of as a communal form of coping, which enhances a culture of peace. this study analyzes the effects of social sharing and communal coping, specifically participation in demonstrations against war and terrorism, on the
where is the strength of the stream function strongest?
the strength of the stream function anomalies is strongest over the north pacific
the extension of the Asian STJ into the Atlantic is missing in which year?
the extension of the asian stj into the atlantic is also missing during the 1994 - 1995
what significantly contributes to the negative phase of the NAO?
the atlantic centers weaken the azores high and contribute significantly to the negative phase of the nao
the strength of the stream function anomalies is strongest over the north pacific suggesting that the wave train described above originates in the central north pacific and then propagates eastward. in particular, the atlantic centers weaken the azores high and contribute significantly to the negative phase of the nao. such clear subtropical wave train is missing during the ep el nino winters (figure 7, left). the extension of the asian stj into the atlantic is also missing during the 1994 - 1995 cp el nino event, resulting in a positive pressure anomaly of the azores high and a warm winter in europe (not shown).
What makes it possible to build up a weighted-distribution of future projections?
by running many ensemble members with the model covering the parameter space
What determines a choice to decide what observations to use?
the design of the perturbed physics ensemble
What are emulators?
statistical models of ensembles that map input parameters to outputs, so enabling larger pseudo-ensemble calculations to be performed
emergent constraints have only been found for a few climateprojection variables and there is a further issue that projections of different variables produced in this way may be inconsistent with each other. such issues have led to the development of the socalled perturbed physics approach30-34. uncertain parameters in a single climate model may be perturbed to produce alternative simulations of past and future climate and climate change (as in the case of the simplified climate model approaches described above). in the perturbed physics approach, the input parameters are varied and the model is run using past and future radiative forcing. as in the general algorithm (fig. 1) we can imagine a point in the parameter space that maps to a point in the past-climate space that is consistent with the observations as measured by some metric, that is, is within the observational error bound. a simulation from a second point of parameter space may be less consistent with the observations. when we look at the future projections made using the model run from the first point, we may assume that these are more likely than the projections made from the second point. by running many ensemble members with the model covering the parameter space, it is possible to build up a weighted-distribution of future projections where the weights relate to the metric35. a key step in such analyses is to decide what observations to use: the choice is often determined by the design of the perturbed physics ensemble. in much of the work that has been conducted, a version of the atmosphere model coupled to a simple slab ocean has been used, restricting the observations to mainly time-averaged climatological fields36,37. in practice, running enough simulations to adequately sample a complex model parameter space and, moreover, to test the sensitivity of the projections to different assumptions about the distributions of those parameters, is computationally challenging. the burden can be eased using emulators, which are statistical models of ensembles that map input parameters to outputs, so enabling larger pseudo-ensemble calculations to be performed (albeit with loss of numerical accuracy)38. to combine the climate model outputs with the observations and emulators is a difficult statistical problem that is most easily handled in a bayesian framework35. a further refinement is to introduce a term to represent irreducible or structural errors in a climate model. if we imagine a point in parameter space at which the model produces its best simulation of both past and future climate, then, unless the model is perfect, there will still be a mismatch between model outputs and reality. specifying the structure of this mismatch remains one of the most challenging problems in climate projection. one possibility is to take the discrepancy from the mme as a lower bound on this 'structural error'37. the strengths of the perturbed physics/bayesian approach are that, in principle, many different observational constraints can be brought to bear on the projections, and projections of many complex climate variables (for example, involving regional averages and extremes) may be produced39 (fig. 5). projections of several quantities simultaneously (joint projections) are also possible where the complex climate model provides the physical link between changes in those different variables. the main weakness is that to use the latest, most comprehensive of climate models, the implementation is expensive in terms of computing resources and requires a very high level of technical expertise. this makes it hard to understand in simple physical terms how the observations constrain the projections.
What type of adaptation is One reason for why communities and networks of fishers can collaborate and respond to change?
social adaptation is how communities and networks of fishers and stakeholders collaborate to respond to change
Promotion of social adaptation can also contribute to which type of resilience?
promotion of social adaptation may also contribute to socio-economic resilience
Technical adaptation can lead to the resilience of which type of ecosystem?
technical innovations that reduce bycatch and support biodiversity may increase the resilience of marine ecosystems
social adaptation is how communities and networks of fishers and stakeholders collaborate to respond to change. such adaptation is important because it: (1) brings together and integrates different knowledge sets and experiences; (2) promotes sharing of risk across stakeholders; (3) assists in collective decision making about the delivery of common services and public goods enjoyed by stakeholders. promotion of social adaptation may also contribute to socio-economic resilience as it provides additional governance arrangements to 'back stop' more formal management structures. by contrast, technical adaptation focuses on technological advances and innovations that will assist in reducing the consequences of climate change for instance, technical innovations that reduce bycatch and support biodiversity may increase the resilience of marine ecosystems. both forms of adaption (social and technical) are important to effectively respond to climate change.
The attached paper was sent to around 20 women ministers for environment and heads of delegations, during the COP 11 in Montreal December 2005. Which countries do they belong to?
he attached paper was sent to around 20 women ministers for environment and heads of delegations, during the cop 11 in montreal december 2005 who it was thought might be supportive for gender issues in the post-kyoto-regime: france, canada, finland, new zealand, russia, slovakia, slovenia, spain, switzerland, the netherlands, latvia, greece, eu-dg env, denmark, belgium, austria, sweden, norway, germany, iceland, japan
What was the paper(submitted to the20 women ministers for environment and heads of delegations) meant to be?
the paper was meant to be an input from women to governments preparing their submissions regarding article 3.9 consideration of commitments for subsequent periods for annex i parties of the kyoto protocol
What were the highlights of the paper?
it highlights several relating to important aspects of the beginning processes towards the 2nd commitment period: the need to increase gender sensitivity of a post-2012 climate protection 'regime' and the need to include women and gender experts in the process. it also highlighted a number of examples of gender aspects of climate change, and included relevant references along with a brief glossary
the attached paper was sent to around 20 women ministers for environment and heads of delegations, during the cop 11 in montreal december 2005 who it was thought might be supportive for gender issues in the post-kyoto-regime: france, canada, finland, new zealand, russia, slovakia, slovenia, spain, switzerland, the netherlands, latvia, greece, eu-dg env, denmark, belgium, austria, sweden, norway, germany, iceland, japan. the paper was meant to be an input from women to governments preparing their submissions regarding article 3.9 consideration of commitments for subsequent periods for annex i parties of the kyoto protocol. it highlights several relating to important aspects of the beginning processes towards the 2nd commitment period: the need to increase gender sensitivity of a post-2012 climate protection 'regime' and the need to include women and gender experts in the process. it also highlighted a number of examples of gender aspects of climate change, and included relevant references along with a brief glossary.
what is the evidence of these findings on climate engagement?
these findings appear to provide strong evidence in favor of the 'interpretative' effects of values on climate engagement: the values we hold influence how we interpret the information we are exposed to about climate change in ways that lead us to either accept or reject the need for greater engagement and action
how do values â€‹â€‹and worldviews shape climate engagement?
one way that values and worldviews shape climate engagement (and partisan polarization) is by acting as filters on the interpretation of the information to which individuals are exposed about climate change
what specific feelings about climate change are derived from?
thus, specific beliefs or feelings about climate change are derived from initial perceptions people form regarding the implications of climate change for the values that they strongly endorse, which is to say, the implications for the lives and choices of 'people like them'.74,75
these findings appear to provide strong evidence in favor of the 'interpretative' effects of values on climate engagement: the values we hold influence how we interpret the information we are exposed to about climate change in ways that lead us to either accept or reject the need for greater engagement and action. leiserowitz and his colleagues have taken this argument a step further, identifying six 'interpretive communities' within the united states which reflect varying levels of belief in and engagement with climate change (from the most engaged 'alarmed' group to the most skeptical 'dismissive' group72). moreover, because political ideology is closely related to the values and worldviews that people hold, these and other effects point to the important role that values play in driving much of the political and cultural polarization observed in the climate change domain. one way that values and worldviews shape climate engagement (and partisan polarization) is by acting as filters on the interpretation of the information to which individuals are exposed about climate change. utilizing a modified version of schwartz' norm-activation model, stern et al.73argued that beliefs about 'emergent attitude objects' (e.g. a new environmental issue such as climate change) are often developed in response to individuals asking themselves, 'what are the implications of this object for the thing i value most?' (p. 1615). thus, specific beliefs or feelings about climate change are derived from initial perceptions people form regarding the implications of climate change for the values that they strongly endorse, which is to say, the implications for the lives and choices of 'people like them'.74,75
Scientific recognition of the accumulation of CO2 and climate change has made what?
scientific recognition of the accumulation of co2 and climate change has made co2 emissions a major social concern and culminated in social pressure throughout the world to reduce emissions
Capital and neoclassical economists attempt to what?
capital and neoclassical economists attempt to assuage fears of environmental deterioration as an inherent part of capitalist economic operations
What does the EKC suggest?
the ekc suggests that environmental impacts, such as pollution, increase in the early stages of development within nations as an industrial economy is established, but level off
scientific recognition of the accumulation of co2 and climate change has made co2 emissions a major social concern and culminated in social pressure throughout the world to reduce emissions. capital and neoclassical economists attempt to assuage fears of environmental deterioration as an inherent part of capitalist economic operations. they typically assert that capitalist development will lead to improved technologies and efficient raw material usage, and that this will decrease emissions and environmental degradation. they argue there is an "environmental kuznets curve" (ekc) for many types of environmental impacts. the ekc suggests that environmental impacts, such as pollution, increase in the early stages of development within nations as an industrial economy is established, but level off
The author states our climate change response should lead to coordinated thinking and action among which groups?
our response requires a new public health movement that is multidisciplinary and multisectoral, and that leads to coordinated thinking and action across governments, international agencies, ngos, and academic institutions
How will a biennial review of progress towards agreed targets would help to accelerate progress?
a biennial review of progress towards agreed targets would help to accelerate progress through celebration of success and identifi cation of areas where progress is lagging
Joint statements from national institutes of medicine, representative bodies such as royal colleges, journal editors, organisations such as the Climate and Health Council, and university leaders worldwide can do what to politicians?
joint statements from national institutes of medicine, representative bodies such as royal colleges, journal editors, organisations such as the climate and health council,175 and university leaders worldwide, drawing upon a growing evidence base, can create a solidarity and authority that politicians will fi nd hard to resist
this report raises many challenging and urgent questions for politicians, civil servants, academics, health professionals, ngos, pressure groups, and local communities. climate change is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century. our response requires a new public health movement that is multidisciplinary and multisectoral, and that leads to coordinated thinking and action across governments, international agencies, ngos, and academic institutions. any adaptation interventions must sit alongside the need for primary mitigation: reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. indeed, recognition by governments and electorates that climate change has enormous health implications should assist the advocacy and political change to tackle mitigation and adaptation. whichever mitigation strategies are chosen by governments or agreed at the copenhagen conference, the move to a low-carbon economy will have global health benefi ts and these must also be emphasised. more research is needed on win-win solutions, which are equally important in developed and developing countries. we have proposed a framework for responding to the health eff ects through adaptation strategies, which in turn embeds mitigation strategies to improve human health worldwide. this framework raises several important issues for action: * climate change mitigation and adaptation are essential elements to overall development policy. they are not separate issues that can be divided from the agenda for poverty alleviation or for closing the gap on social inequalities and health. * the most urgent need is to empower poor countries, and local government and local communities everywhere, to understand climate implications and to take action. health professionals and university academics have an important catalytic role. multidisciplinary groups from higher education institutions can have a forceful role in engaging with community leaders, civil society organisations, and students in these debates. there is a need for new fi nancing for global links between developed and developing countries that create a two-way dialogue. developed countries can help to strengthen capacity for high-quality research and information collection in developing countries, and developing countries can strengthen the ability of developed countries to understand sustainability and low-carbon living. empowerment is as much about community mobilisation as high-level political action. the empowerment process is likely to be pluralistic and chaotic, but health and academic communities can do much to support and catalyse these processes. * an agenda for developing countries must be developed through global cooperation. representation on global task forces to assess the health eff ect of climate change is heavily skewed in favour of institutions in developed countries. in poor countries, health assessments and high-level climate science and health surveillance research are a priority. new research and advocacy groupings in africa and south asia are needed, and the academic community of developed countries must have a role in lobbying for resources and support. food and water insecurity are early eff ects of climate change and will be a high priority for poor communities. distilling academic fi ndings into simple language, policy briefs, and user-friendly media is essential. * climate change should be integrated into the entire discourse of our present and should be taken into consideration for all governance actions. an advocacy movement must ensure that the health eff ects of climate change are placed high on the agenda of every research and development funder, philanthropist, academic journal, scientifi c conference, professional meeting, and university or school curriculum. academics should lead advocacy within their own spheres of infl uence. * accountability mechanisms are crucial. we hope that this report will initiate or stimulate new funding and networks to monitor what is happening in government, civil society, academia, local government, and communities, especially in the most vulnerable populations. accountability indicators should be monitored by the academic community and civil society organisations. it should be possible to agree upon health and climate change goals and targets for the processes of engagement and empowerment. global and regional conferences and working groups to develop these outputs would be valuable in the same way that previous reports published in the lancet have stimulated action on child survival, nutrition, and maternal health through the countdown to 2015. a biennial review of progress towards agreed targets would help to accelerate progress through celebration of success and identifi cation of areas where progress is lagging. * awareness of health risks can have an important role in strengthening carbon mitigation debates and targets. joint statements from national institutes of medicine, representative bodies such as royal colleges, journal editors, organisations such as the climate and health council,175 and university leaders worldwide, drawing upon a growing evidence base, can create a solidarity and authority that politicians will fi nd hard to resist. the priority is to send clear messages to the copenhagen conference in december,
What has polarized the public debate?
the uncertainties associated with climate change have polarized public debate
Given the uncertainties, what would be a prudent approach to climage change?
given the uncertainties, a prudent approach would be to abate emissions where possible at modest cost
What would be the standard economic policy prescription to achieve this?
to achieve this, the standard economic policy prescription would be a market-based instrument, such as a tax on emissions or a tradable permit system for emission rights
the uncertainties associated with climate change have polarized public debate. some observers argue that the uncertainties are too large to justify immediate action-that climate change is an "unproved theoryn-and that the best response is to do more climate research and wait for the uncertainties to be resolved. other observers take the opposite position that the risks from global warming are so severe that substantial cuts should be made in greenhouse gas emissions immediately, regardless of the cost. neither position is appropriate. on one hand, increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere exposes the world to the risk of an adverse change in the climate, even though the distribution of that risk is poorly understood. enough is known to justify reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly to preserve the option of avoiding an irreversible change in the climate. on the other hand, too little is known about the causes and consequences of climate change to justify a draconian cut in emissions. given the uncertainties, a prudent approach would be to abate emissions where possible at modest cost. minimizing the cost of abating a given amount of greenhouse emissions requires that all sources clean up amounts that cause their marginal costs of abatement to be equated. to achieve this, the standard economic policy prescription would be a market-based instrument, such as a tax on emissions or a tradable permit system for emission rights. in the absence of uncertainty, the efficient level of abatement could be achieved under either policy, although the distributional effects of tax and emissions trading policies would be very different. under uncertainty, however, the situation becomes more complicated. weitzman
What is not included in our bioenergy potential calculations?
our bioenergy potential calculations do not include bioenergy potentials from forests
How much energy value did the wood fuels from forest make by 2000?
in the year 2000, the amount of wood fuels harvested in forests had an energy value of approximately 22 ej
Is there any data showing the human consumption of bioenergy and where does it come from?
no comprehensive data exist to identify how much of the bioenergy currently used by humans comes from forests, from wastes in production processes, and from cropland and grazing areas
our bioenergy potential calculations do not include bioenergy potentials from forests. in the year 2000, the amount of wood fuels harvested in forests had an energy value of approximately 22 ej the iea reports that the total amount of "primary solid biomass" used for energy production globally was 39.4 ej [92,93] no comprehensive data exist to identify how much of the bioenergy currently used by humans comes from forests, from wastes in production processes, and from cropland and grazing areas. the potentials identified in this study include the unknown amount of bioenergy produced table 7 e current and projected future level of global biomass and energy use and global terrestrial net primary production: a compilation of estimates. energy flow [ej y 1] year sources
What information can we gather from the paragraph about roe deer ?
from a remnant population of 100 individuals in southern sweden in the middle of the 19th century, roe deer have spread out to cover most of the forested parts of sweden and norway and a smaller part of finland (cederlund and liberg 1995). following the expansion northward, hunting was opened wherever the populations were considered viable. the hunting quotas are not age or sex specific, but hunting statistics indicate that the harvest is skewed toward adult males
What does the study on the variations in the population of roe deer prove?
three data sets were available for testing this critical assumption. first, we compared annual variation in the number of roe deer killed in car accidents (provided by statistics norway) with the harvest data during the years 1987-2000. the correlations between road kills and harvest data were generally high (table 1). second, we compared food-site sightings from several municipalities in the counties of hedmark and ostfold in southern norway (fig. 1) with harvest data from the same municipalities during the years 1994-1998
from a remnant population of 100 individuals in southern sweden in the middle of the 19th century, roe deer have spread out to cover most of the forested parts of sweden and norway and a smaller part of finland (cederlund and liberg 1995). following the expansion northward, hunting was opened wherever the populations were considered viable. the hunting quotas are not age or sex specific, but hunting statistics indicate that the harvest is skewed toward adult males. hunting statistics at the municipality level were obtained from statistics norway and were available from the mid 1950s to the present. the hunting quotas were also partly available. averaged over all years and municipalities, only 27.9%  18.9% (mean  1 sd) of the actual hunting quota was harvested. only in 2.4% of the cases was more than 70% of the hunting quota harvested. accordingly, we expect that the numbers of harvested roe deer, to a large degree, reflect changes in actual population size rather than being artifacts of quota size. three data sets were available for testing this critical assumption. first, we compared annual variation in the number of roe deer killed in car accidents (provided by statistics norway) with the harvest data during the years 1987-2000. the correlations between road kills and harvest data were generally high (table 1). second, we compared food-site sightings from several municipalities in the counties of hedmark and ostfold in southern norway (fig. 1) with harvest data from the same municipalities during the years 1994-1998. the
What is Puget Sound?
the puget sound basin in northwestern washington, usa has experienced substantial land cover and climate change over the last century
Use of the hydrology model?
using a spatially distributed hydrology model (the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model, dhsvm) the concurrent effects of changing climate (primarily temperature) and land cover in the basin are deconvolved, based on land cover maps for 1883 and 2002, and gridded climate data for 1915-2006
What is so-called transient snow zone?
temperature change is especially important at intermediate elevations (so-called transient snow zone), where the winter snow line is most sensitive to temperature change--notwithstanding the effects of forest harvest over the same part of the basin
the puget sound basin in northwestern washington, usa has experienced substantial land cover and climate change over the last century. using a spatially distributed hydrology model (the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model, dhsvm) the concurrent effects of changing climate (primarily temperature) and land cover in the basin are deconvolved, based on land cover maps for 1883 and 2002, and gridded climate data for 1915-2006. it is found that land cover and temperature change effects on streamflow have occurred differently at high and low elevations. in the lowlands, land cover has occurred primarily as conversion of forest to urban or partially urban land use, and here the land cover signal dominates temperature change. in the uplands, both land cover and temperature change have played important roles. temperature change is especially important at intermediate elevations (so-called transient snow zone), where the winter snow line is most sensitive to temperature change--notwithstanding the effects of forest harvest over the same part of the basin. model simulations show that current land cover results in higher fall, winter and early spring streamflow but lower summer flow; higher annual maximum flow and higher annual mean streamflow compared with pre-development conditions, which is largely consistent with a trend analysis of model residuals. land cover change effects in urban and partially urban basins have resulted in changes in annual flow, annual maximum flows, fall and summer flows. for the upland portion of the basin, shifts in the seasonal distribution of streamflows (higher spring flow and lower summer flow) are clearly related to rising temperatures, but annual streamflow has not changed much. copyright  2009 john wiley sons, ltd.
What estimates were provided using a hydrological model for Africa?
using a hydrological model for africa, estimates were provided for flow and runoff for each of the sampled districts strzepek and mccluskey, 2006 
What is net revenue if more than one crop is grown on the same land?
if more than one crop is grown on the same land then it is the sum of the products of the crop harvested and their prices less their associated cost of production
Why was household labour excluded from the cost estimation?
what is excluded from the estimation of the cost is household labour because of the high possibility of overestimation
hydrology data these were provided by the university of colorado, boulder, and the international water management institute (iwmi) as part of the gef africa-wide study. using a hydrological model for africa, estimates were provided for flow and runoff for each of the sampled districts strzepek and mccluskey, 2006 ). 3.1. the empirical model eq. (4) is estimated for south africa using seasonal means for summer (december, january and february), fall (march, april and may), winter (june, july and august) and spring (september, october and november).2given that there are two major farming seasons in the country, we also examine the marginal impacts of temperature and precipitation for the summer farming season (december-may) and the winter farming season (june-november) using eq. (3). the rest of section 3 discusses each of the variables in the model. 3.2. description of dependent and explanatory variables 3.2.1. net crop revenue per hectare the dependent variable v in eq. (4) is measured as crop net revenue per hectare of cropland as opposed to per hectare of farmland, which would include farmland under livestock and poultry production, and other farm activities such as forestry (see table 1 for summary of variables included in the models). in simple terms, net revenue is gross crop revenue (which is the product of total harvest and price of the crop) less total cost of production. if more than one crop is grown on the same land then it is the sum of the products of the crop harvested and their prices less their associated cost of production. total harvest of crops includes harvest used for household consumption, livestock feed and harvest sold. the cost element is mainly total variable costs (tvcs), which in this case include the depreciation or maintenance cost of fixed assets such as buildings, machinery, etc. tvcs include expenditure on transport, packaging, marketing, storage, post-harvest losses, fertilizer, pesticide, seeds, water use, labour and other depreciation costs of the use of light and heavy machinery. other costs include rent paid on the farmland, interest paid on loans, etc. what is excluded from the estimation of the cost is household labour because of the high possibility of overestimation. from the sample of 416 farm households, crop net revenues were estimated for 272 farm households. the rest were mainly in livestock farming or did not harvest any crop in the period of interest. some households also did not indicate other cost elements and therefore were also excluded. excessive estimated net revenues which were judged to be outliers were also excluded from the dataset.
What is the integration of information based on?
climate-change exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity
What have the results shown?
that some developing countries are projected to experience impacts of climate change that stress their capacities to adapt before 2050 even at low climate sensitivity
What will happen given more time?
analyses that do incorporate more of these details, we therefore offer hope that researchers and negotiators alike will become better informed about who is most vulnerable to climate change (both in terms of exposure and in their adaptive capacity), where they live, why they are vulnerable, and the relative efficacy of various degrees of mitigation in improving their lots in life
the integration of information about climate-change exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity begins to provide insights into the sets of conditions under which adaptive capacity may or may not be able to provide what is needed so that societies may adapt in a timely fashion. our results have shown that some developing countries are projected to experience impacts of climate change that stress their capacities to adapt before 2050 even at low climate sensitivity; at high climate sensitivity, some of these countries may be overwhelmed, and even developed countries will become increasingly vulnerable. with high climate sensitivity, by 2100 much of the world may need not only high adaptive capacity but also significant emissions mitigation to have been implemented in order to avoid high levels of vulnerability. overall, these results challenge assumptions about which countries have "enough" adaptive capacity (because they are wealthy or impacts will be mild or both). the results, while highly suggestive, are surely dependent upon our framing of a specific vulnerability index which presumes a certain, perhaps limited degree of substitutability between experiencing high exposure and generating reduced sensitivity through adaptation. they are also derived from an old-school "what if?" approach to scenarios. what if atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases were limited to 550 ppm? what if adaptive capacity were enhanced significantly around the world? we have not tied our thought experiments to any reason why either approach to the climate problem would be chosen; nor have we said anything about how difficult it might be to do either. indeed, we have said nothing about the relative costs of mitigation and programs that would enhance adaptive capacity; and we certainly do not want to give the impression that a 550 ppm concentration cap should be adopted. we have, though, demonstrated that these and other questions can be explored in a way that recognizes global diversity explicitly and that calibrates, however roughly, plausible exposure levels to accepted indicators of adaptive capacity in different places. indeed, we think that it is important to be able to offer suggestive evidence that developing countries are most vulnerable to modest climate change but that all countries could be overwhelmed by more severe exposure. we also think that it is important to be able to suggest that developed countries could benefit most from even near-term mitigation in those not so implausible futures where climate changes rapidly and/or abruptly. given more time and a cornucopia of analyses that do incorporate more of these details, we therefore offer hope that researchers and negotiators alike will become better informed about who is most vulnerable to climate change (both in terms of exposure and in their adaptive capacity), where they live, why they are vulnerable, and the relative efficacy of various degrees of mitigation in improving their lots in life. iaj, vol. 6, iss. 3 (2006), pg. 43
What is the remedy for global warming and energy shortage according to Boston Globe?
reducing us reliance on fossil fuels
What was the comment of Naresh Chandra?
at the moment we [in india] have a much higher and urgent priority, and that is eradication of poverty, removal of backwardness, and improving the level of living of our people
What two are having  tremendous diplomatic accomplishments?
fccc and the kyoto protocol
vaitheeswaran, 2001 ).''28 this apparent window of opportunity led the economist to suggest a perspective on energy policy arguably more in line with common interests, ''a more suitable target for green ire would be the gross inefficiency of the world's energy systems (2001).'' some clearly believe that that the global warming issue can carry all of energy policy on its back. the boston globe (2001) editorialized that: the energy shortage and global warming can be cured by the same medicine: reducing us reliance on fossil fuels. the energy efficiency standards required to meet the kyoto goals would also ease the united states out of its oil dependence. the arguments provided in this paper (and by others elsewhere) suggest that this ''two birds with one stone'' approach has been and will continue to be a dramatic failure with respect to both climate and energy policies. alternatively, an energy policy focused on the human and environmental costs of fossil fuels, where costs are defined beyond simple markets economics to include their typically ignored broader human and environmental impacts, an ample case can be made for increased efficiency, greater conservation, enhanced energy research and development, and technology diffusion. for many of the poorest nations of the world the future threats posed by climate pale in comparison to the immediate benefits to be achieved by greater use of energy. as naresh chandra, ambassador to the u.s. from india commented, at the moment we [in india] have a much higher and urgent priority, and that is eradication of poverty, removal of backwardness, and improving the level of living of our people. that is a much greater, urgent necessity than the long-term aim of controlling greenhouse gas emissions we have a huge power shortage in india newshour, 1997 ). thus, energy policy, as well as climate policy, has dimensions that go well beyond consideration of climate change to include issues such as pollution, efficiency, and independence. each of these issues forms an immediate, practical grounding on which to address the many policy problems that comprise the climate change issue. any progress on these problems would have the additional benefit of reducing greenhouse gases emissions, arguably at a pace much quicker than the current approach. 7. concluding thoughts there is no doubt that fccc and the kyoto protocol represent tremendous diplomatic accomplishments. negotiations have raised awareness of countries around the world to the importance of climate and focused them on shared objectives. but at the same time, this approach does not get at the core societal and environmental problems of climate change. one essential factor in motivating positive evolution of the fccc is to consider how it might be structured around a broader definition that allows for a clearer distinction of energy policy and climate policy. such an approach offers no panacea to dealing with the challenges of climate change, but at a minimum it offers a radial reframing of the issue that may open up discussion of paths not seen and options not previously considered. in terms of climate policy, such a reframing would mean a transition from a focus on ''dangerous anthropogenic interference'' to a focus on the impacts and opportunities related to climate, recognizing that the word ''climate'' by definition includes the notion of variability and change. with such a framing the fccc could form the basis for international climate and energy policies that actually serve to diminish environmental degradation and improve human lives.29
how were Models calibrated?
models were calibrated using a 70% random sample of the clouded apollo butterfly distribution and evaluated against the remaining 30% of the data (for details on the design of the modelling experiment
how many times This procedure of cross validation was repeated to assess the sensitivity of projections to variations in the data ?
this procedure of cross validation was repeated ten times (yielding a 10-fold cross validation) to assess the sensitivity of projections to variations in the data used for calibration of the models (i.e., the initial conditions), thus providing a measure of model stability
what did Modelled species probabilities of occurrence transform into?
modelled species probabilities of occurrence were transformed into presence and absence records using a cut-off defined by the prevalence (the proportion of species occurrences among all grid cells) of clouded apollo butterflies in the studied area
models were calibrated using a 70% random sample of the clouded apollo butterfly distribution and evaluated against the remaining 30% of the data (for details on the design of the modelling experiment see table 1). this procedure of cross validation was repeated ten times (yielding a 10-fold cross validation) to assess the sensitivity of projections to variations in the data used for calibration of the models (i.e., the initial conditions), thus providing a measure of model stability. modelled species probabilities of occurrence were transformed into presence and absence records using a cut-off defined by the prevalence (the proportion of species occurrences among all grid cells) of clouded apollo butterflies in the studied area. this approach for identification of cut offs is attractive for its simplicity and because it has been shown to be at least as effective as the more complex sensitivity-specificity sum maximization, sensitivityspecificity equality and roc plot based approaches (for discussion see liu
How many climate change scenarios were the determined bioclimatic envelopes transferred to?
the determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (a1b and b1) for central europe (austria, germany and switzerland) using data of the regional climate model cosmo-clm
How can the results of the study be used?
our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment
What is the most likely way of natural dispersal for each species?
the most likely way of natural dispersal (''least-cost path'') for each species
background: in the old world, sandfly species of the genus phlebotomus are known vectors of leishmania bartonella and several viruses. recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards central europe. however, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing european climate are missing. methodology: here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using maxent for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for leishmania infantum which are either predominantly located in (south-) western phlebotomus ariasi p. mascittii and p. perniciosus or south-eastern europe p. neglectus and p. perfiliewi ). the determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (a1b and b1) for central europe (austria, germany and switzerland) using data of the regional climate model cosmo-clm. we detected the most likely way of natural dispersal (''least-cost path'') for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. results and relevance: results indicate that the central european climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. in general, the highest suitability of central europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for p. perfiliewi nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. a northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the alps. our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. this is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases.
What are climate effects?
predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. we show that, in a california grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years
What are climate models?
we manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories
Describe climate change?
conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change
predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. we show that, in a california grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. we manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.
What is the scope of the present paper?
municipal planning represents a key avenue for local adaptation, but is subject to recognised constraints. to date, these constraints have focused on simplistic factors such as limited resources and lack of information. in this paper we argue that this focus has obscured a wider set of constraints which need to be acknowledged and addressed if adaptation is likely to advance through municipal planning
What is the  important issue for planning conducted by local governments?
climate adaptation was widely accepted as an important issue for planning conducted by local governments
What are the factors far under-acknowledged in the climate adaptation literature?
these include leadership, institutional context and competing planning agendas. these factors can serve as constraints or enabling mechanisms for achieving climate adaptation depending upon how they are exploited in any given situation
municipal planning represents a key avenue for local adaptation, but is subject to recognised constraints. to date, these constraints have focused on simplistic factors such as limited resources and lack of information. in this paper we argue that this focus has obscured a wider set of constraints which need to be acknowledged and addressed if adaptation is likely to advance through municipal planning. although these recognised constraints are relevant, we argue that what underpins these issues are more fundamental challenges affecting local, placed-based planning by drawing on the related field of community-based environmental planning (cbep). in considering a wider set of constraints to practical attempts towards adaptation, the paper considers planning based on a case study of three municipalities in sydney, australia in 2008. the results demonstrate that climate adaptation was widely accepted as an important issue for planning conducted by local governments. however, it was yet to be embedded in planning practice which retained a strong mitigation bias in relation to climate change. in considering the case study, we draw attention to factors thus far under-acknowledged in the climate adaptation literature. these include leadership, institutional context and competing planning agendas. these factors can serve as constraints or enabling mechanisms for achieving climate adaptation depending upon how they are exploited in any given situation. the paper concludes that, through
What is the purpose of this chapter?
to introduce ocean climate models and their use in climate science
What covers roughly 70% of the Earth's surface?
the oceans
What is increasingly being used by all sorts of scientists?
ocean models
the purpose of this chapter is to introduce ocean climate models and their use in climate science. 1.1 ocean models as tools for ocean science a column of ocean water only 3m thick contains as much heat capacity as the full atmospheric column above (gill, 1982). hence, the oceans, which cover roughly 70% of the earth's surface, provide a large reservoir for heat and other constituents of the earth's climate system, such as the increasing amounts of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. through its buffering abilities and relatively slow time scales, the ocean represents the flywheel of the earth's climate system. that is, as goes the ocean, so goes the climate system. a scientific understanding of the ocean's time mean state, as well as its variability about this mean and its stability to various forms of perturbations, represents a key goal of physical oceanography and climate science. due to our inability to perform controlled experiments on large-scale systems studied in the geosciences, such as the earth's climate and its component subsystems, computer models represent a critical tool for rationalizing climate phenomena. indeed, computer models are becoming the primary tools used to study and predict physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the ocean fluid, reflecting the growing power of computers, improved knowledge and observations of the ocean, and enhancements in the realism of ocean model simulations. that ocean models are increasingly being used by all sorts of scientists, including those without direct experience developing models, is a sign that the models have enhanced their physical integrity over the past decades to a level deserving a general respect within the broader climate science community. correspondingly, as model usage increases, model developers have a growing responsibility to ensure that their codes are physically based, numerically sound, and well documented. given this mandate, one aim of this book is to establish a level of ocean model documentation that goes beyond the usual technical discussion that assumes the model user is familiar with the fundamentals and understands the physical meanings of the mathematical symbols. instead, we develop the equations from a (mostly) first principles perspective and take some care to nurture a physical understanding of the mathematics. 2 chapter 1
How is a company's response to climate change produced?
occurs in many dimensions, including political, technological, organizational, financial, and public relations components
this conception of governance, which has become prominent in international relations, displaces government from its traditional, sovereign role in establishing and securing order (rosenau, 1992). instead, governance is viewed as a more diffuse form of authority and control operating through a network of actors at multiple levels. within this system, states act as economic agents concerned about their 'competitiveness' palan et al. 1996 ), while firms are important political actors with significant policy influence. bargaining over regime structures and processes engages actors in a complex set of strategic maneuvers in the economic, discursive, and political spheres braithwaite and drahos, 2000; prakash and hart, 1999 ). markets and the private decisions of firms are themselves part of the fabric of governance, as the day-to-day production, research and marketing practices of large mncs are decisive in shaping environmental impacts. in this paper we argue that the business community has played an important role in shaping the system of global ghg governance, and is generally willing to undertake measures consistent with a fragmented and weak policy regime, while at the same time taking political action to create, shape and preserve that compromised regime. to describe the action businesses take in regards to ghg governance, this paper examines the history and current nature of corporate responses to climate change in particular, we look at three indicators of the nature of corporate response: reports by outside organizations that document corporate responses and achievements; commitments to action undertaken by firms regarding emissions; and membership of firms in associations or alliances which take collective political action. we try to explain the paradox between the energetic efforts of firms and the lack of meaningful results by considering the multiple dimensions of a firm's response. the position of firms is not merely for or against action on climate change, nor even along a continuum between those two extremes. rather, a firms response to climate change occurs in many dimensions, including political, technological, organizational, financial, and public relations components. the prospect for a relatively weak carbon regime, the considerable uncertainty associated with
Innovations which facilitate substitution on either the demand or supply side are therefore seen as what?
the saving grace
What does the ITC imply
such beneficial innovation may be stimulated by near-term actions such as subsidies for the research and promotion of carbon-free energy supplies or energy efficiency improvements, or simply aggressive programs of abatement, thus favoring an " act now " strategy
Theoretical and empirical elaboration of the mechanisms by which prices affect what?
the rate and direction of innovation
innovations which facilitate substitution on either the demand or supply side are therefore seen as the saving grace which can moderate the cost of climate policies. computational investigations of the costs of reducing ghg emissions policies often treat technological progress as exogenous and invariant to the effects of abatement policies. in an intertemporal optimization framework, autonomous technological advance favors a " wait-and-see " strategy of continuing to emit at high levels while allowing innovation to lower future abatement costs (e.g., wigley et al., 1996; manne and richels, 1997 ). by contrast, itc implies that such beneficial innovation may be stimulated by near-term actions such as subsidies for the research and promotion of carbon-free energy supplies or energy efficiency improvements, or simply aggressive programs of abatement, thus favoring an " act now " strategy (e.g., grubb et al., 1995 ). at issue are analysts' assumptions about the response of innovation to policy-induced input price changes and the consequent shift in substitution possibilities. since hicks (1932) initial articulation of the itc hypothesis, theoretical and empirical elaboration of the mechanisms by which prices affect the rate and direction of innovation have until recently proved elusive.1but in spite of this caveat, the idea that forcing producers to bear the costs of cutting pollution induces technological change that both alleviates the costs of abatement and increases profits still captures the imagination of environmental advocates and scholars alike.2
People from britain are called?
british
A boyfriend and girlfriend are in a?
relationship
Which branch of biology deals with the relations of organisms to one and other?
ecology
fig. 6. correlations between k wwand b0 (eqn 10; table s1, supporting information), and maximum stomatal conductance, gc,ww, for all species (main panels), or median values for species aggregated in functional types and climatic conditions (insets; see also table 2). in panel (a), lines indicate the theoretical relationship k wwgc ww   (eqn 8), for aww increasing from 5 to 35 l mol m) 2s) 1(from bottom to top); in panel (b), the solid line is the linear least square regressions for conifers. symbols as in fig. 3.  2011 the authors. functional ecology  2011 british ecological society, functional ecology
Where did the demonstration that biotic communities of Brown et al. (1998) occur?
while a demonstration that the biotic communities of brown et al. (1998) recur across the landscape in response to climate might be anticipated, the degree to which the occurrence of the communities can be predicted from climate at a resolution as fine as 1 km seems remarkable indeed
What variables are most important for separating the communities?
the variables most important for separating the communities tend to parallel general differences in climate across our geographic window
Which variable was of greatest importance?
of greatest importance was the ratio of summer to annual precipitation, a variable reflecting general differences among maritime coastal climates, continental climates of the interior, and monsoonal climates of the southwest
communities climatic control of community composition and distribution is at the foundation of plant sociology. while a demonstration that the biotic communities of brown et al. (1998) recur across the landscape in response to climate might be anticipated, the degree to which the occurrence of the communities can be predicted from climate at a resolution as fine as 1 km seems remarkable indeed. the strength of the relationships of figures 2 and 3 was a pleasant surprise to brown himself (d. e. brown, botany department, arizona state university, tempe, personal communication). the variables most important for separating the communities tend to parallel general differences in climate across our geographic window. of greatest importance was the ratio of summer to annual precipitation, a variable reflecting general differences among maritime coastal climates, continental climates of the interior, and monsoonal climates of the southwest. another important predictor, the summer-winter temperature differential, separates maritime and continental climates, and together these two variables, along with their interactions with temperature and annual precipitation, accounted for five of the seven most important variables. the remaining variables, summer maximum temperatures and the interaction of growing season precipitation with degree-days
What has a direct impact on the size and viability of cattle-keeping?
the loss of perennial and palatable grass species has a direct impact on the size and viability of cattle-keeping
What has been made to farm game species in a few commercial, privately owned ranches?
in a few commercial, privately owned ranches, a shift has been made to farm game species
Why do these changes threaten agroecosystem resilience?
these changes threaten agroecosystem resilience because of the reliance on livestock as the dominant income source for supporting livelihoods
borehole water depths are increasing and in the more arid areas, e.g., southwest botswana near bokspits, very little or no potable water is currently found. in addition, there are concerns that ancient stable dune systems will become active here (thomas et al. 2005). these changes threaten agroecosystem resilience these changes threaten agroecosystem resilience because of the reliance on livestock as the dominant income source for supporting livelihoods. the loss of perennial and palatable grass species has a direct impact on the size and viability of cattle-keeping and has, in many areas, led to a significant shift to the keeping of sheep and goats as the main livelihood activity (rohde et al. 2006, sallu et al. 2009). in a few commercial, privately owned ranches, a shift has been made to farm game species, e.g., springbok, gemsbok, and ostrich, though this
At what time does human stresses on coastal ecosystems and resourses grow?
at the same time that climate variability, climate change, and associated changes in the marine environment are making coastal areas less secure for human habitation
What are wicked problems?
are ones that defy complete definition and easy or final solutions owing to the inherent and constantly evolving complexity of the system at stake
What does every intervention is such problems generate?
generates further challenges, suggesting that wicked problems do not have unambiguously good or bad solutions, only temporary best answers
coastal regions of the world face "wicked" challenges. in a nutshell, with continuing influx of large numbers of people into coastal regions, human stresses on coastal ecosystems and resources are growing at the same time that climate variability, climate change, and associated changes in the marine environment are making coastal areas less secure for human habitation. wicked problems (1) are ones that defy complete definition and easy or final solutions owing to the inherent and constantly evolving complexity of the system at stake. every intervention in such problems generates further challenges, suggesting that wicked problems do not have unambiguously good or bad solutions, only temporary best answers. wicked problems--even in a relatively static environment--may continue to plague managers with diabolic challenges, but adding global climate change with all its ramifications, deep-seated causes, and systemic uncertainties will guarantee them (2, 3). this review aims to frame these wicked challenges as emerging at the interface of the impacts of climate change on already vulnerable, already stressed coastal environments figure 1 ). we begin below with a brief sketch of the proximate and deeper causes underlying the current trends at "land's end" to set the stage for the exploration of coasts and global environmental change. we then turn to a review of global climate change,
How much will it cost to meet the challenge of climate change?
while adapting this upgraded infrastructure specifically to meet the challenge of climate change will cost an additional $16-63 billion per year
What leads to substantially lower costs that protects the poor?
the unfccc takes the former line, but this leads to estimations of cost that are substantially lower than if one assumed a development pathway which protects the poor against vulnerability to climate change
How much would be spent over a 20 year period according to the report?
in this report we conclude that removing the housing and infrastructure deficit in lowand middle-income countries will cost around $315 billion per year (in today's figures) over 20 years
there follows from this the question as to whether the 'climate mark-up' should be against investment levels that reflect current trends (which in many regions, of africa for example, are insufficient to remove high levels of vulnerability to climate), or to elevated levels that are needed to attain the mdgs, or to even higher levels that would help achieve sustainable and equitable development. the unfccc takes the former line, but this leads to estimations of cost that are substantially lower than if one assumed a development pathway which protects the poor against vulnerability to climate change. in this report we conclude that removing the housing and infrastructure deficit in lowand middle-income countries will cost around $315 billion per year (in today's figures) over 20 years; while adapting this upgraded infrastructure specifically to meet the challenge of climate change will cost an additional $16-63 billion per year.
Reading the text above what does these examples show about the cities?
these examples show that cities can use their authoritative power in very creative ways
Why did the city of Boulder in Colorado attract media attention in 2006?
the city of boulder in colorado attracted media attention in 2006 when voters approved a city-wide carbon tax to fund boulder's ghg emissions reduction strategy laid down in its climate action plan (betsill/rabe 2008
Give us the name of a city that is preparing an adaptation plan?
adaptation plans are only at a preliminary stage and range from preparatory studies on how to prepare an adaptation plan, e.g. for cape town, and impact assessments, e.g. for london, to the early
these examples show that cities can use their authoritative power in very creative ways, even to generate funding for the implementation of their climate protection policy. the city of boulder in colorado attracted media attention in 2006 when voters approved a city-wide carbon tax to fund boulder's ghg emissions reduction strategy laid down in its climate action plan (betsill/rabe 2008). despite a limited number of success stories, such as boulder's carbon tax, barcelona's 'solar thermal ordinance' and london's congestion charge, it appears, however, that municipalities are reluctant to apply an authoritative mode of governing through regulative measures and strategic planning for climate protection. instead, a lack of willingness to act locally in the face of political, business and public opposition can be observed - even if the capacity to intervene exists (bulkeley/kern 2006). it may be added that far-reaching approaches, such as the of a carbon-tax or congestion charge, are difficult to achieve because they may require not only a consensus in the city council but also a referendum. having discussed the different modes of governing in the area of mitigation, we will now turn to the question as to how cities have been dealing with the new challenges posed by the need to adapt to the already apparent effects of climate change. 2.3 adaptation whereas cities had initiated mitigation policies and created networks even before the ipcc first assessment report was released, adaptation policies at local level are still in their infancy. the forerunner cities in the area of mitigation accepted scientific uncertainty, focusing on 'no-regret' measures and linking their activities closely to local and regional sustainable development. however, a sound scientific basis is imperative when developing an adaptation strategy (lindseth 2005: 63). this is one of the reasons why cities tend to wait until they are actually affected by extreme weather events. cities receive input and guidance from science and governmental institutions at national level in relation to adaptation. in many countries such institutions have started to investigate potential impacts and produce recommendations which show how actors at various levels can adapt to climate change. this stands in sharp contrast to the situation in the area of mitigation whereby the cities' mitigation activities were not recognised by national governments and the scientific community for several years, as a result of which learning-by-doing was the only option available to them to advance their knowledge in this area. nevertheless, numerous local governments produced and adopted mitigation plans whereas, at present, adaptation plans are only at a preliminary stage and range from preparatory studies on how to prepare an adaptation plan, e.g. for cape town, and impact assessments, e.g. for london, to the early
Define hydrological impact?
there are many sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact scenarios that are in the climate modelling, the method used for transferring the climate signal to meteorological stations, and in the hydrological modelling
Define hydrological conditions?
he model simulations have not considered land use changes explicitly although, it is likely that changes in land use may interact with climate leading to different projections of future hydrological conditions
Define emission scenarios?
therefore the result of this study should be taken with care and be considered as indication of likely future changes rather than an actual prediction. the outcome of this study is based on single gcms and two emission scenarios
there are many sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact scenarios that are in the climate modelling, the method used for transferring the climate signal to meteorological stations, and in the hydrological modelling. the model simulations have not considered land use changes explicitly although, it is likely that changes in land use may interact with climate leading to different projections of future hydrological conditions. therefore the result of this study should be taken with care and be considered as indication of likely future changes rather than an actual prediction. the outcome of this study is based on single gcms and two emission scenarios. however, it is often recommended to apply different gcms and emission scenarios so as to make comparison between different models as well as to explore a wide range of climate change scenarios that would result in different hydrological impacts. hence this work should be extended in the future by including different gcms and emission scenarios. the gcms was downscaled to catchment scale using the statistical downscaling model (sdsm) which is a regression based model. there also other downscaling methods such as stochastic weather generators (for instance lar-wg) and weather typing schemes which are commonly applied in impact assessments. however, it not yet clear which methods gives the most reliable estimate for future climate. in fact all downscaling methods are still very much
Have most FACE studies investigated the influence of  crops grown under elevated O3?
only a limited number of face studies have investigated the influence of crops grown under elevated o3, and these studies have been confined to three crops in two locations (soybean in the united states and wheat and rice in china
What is the main concern regarding chamber environments?
concern has been raised that the chamber environment modifies plant response to o3 (37), with environmental differences between the chamber and the open air either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of elevated o3 (94
What was the result of the increase in [O3] in the FACE experiments?
the modest increase in [o3] in the face experiments significantly and consistently reduced yield in soybean, wheat, and rice
only a limited number of face studies have investigated the influence of crops grown under elevated o3, and these studies have been confined to three crops in two locations (soybean in the united states and wheat and rice in china). as such, the concentration-response functions that are necessary to perform regional estimates of yield, production, and economic loss owing to o3 are based primarily on data from field chamber experiments. concern has been raised that the chamber environment modifies plant response to o3 (37), with environmental differences between the chamber and the open air either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of elevated o3 (94). comparisons of face results against global modeling studies (151) suggest that, if anything, chamber studies would tend to underestimate the yield losses found in the face experiments, though the importance of differences in o3 sensitivity among crop genotypes and years is apparent. ultimately, such comparisons show that there is a need for more face experiments to reduce the uncertainty in future estimates of loss in crop productivity. ideally, these should be conducted in a range of locations and cover different cropping and management systems (126). has implications for the terrestrial hydrological cycle (19). the modest increase in [o3] in the face experiments significantly and consistently reduced yield in soybean, wheat, and rice table 1 ). for soybean and wheat, decreased seed and grain mass was largely responsible for the yield losses. in rice, however, there was little effect of o3 on grain mass; rather, o3 decreased spikelet number per panicle
What is mtDNA?
if the effect we find on mtdna is a feature of its lack of recombination, uniparental inheritance or small effective population size (relative to the autosomes and x chromosome), we would therefore expect to find a similar pattern on the y chromosome
The powerful test for an association between climate and mating system or sexbiased dispersal?
having markers that are either passed down the male line or predominantly the female line provides us with a powerful test for an association between climate and mating system or sexbiased dispersal, which would be highlighted by a link between climate and the ratio of diversities at the two uniparental markers
mtdna. if the effect we find on mtdna is a feature of its lack of recombination, uniparental inheritance or small effective population size (relative to the autosomes and x chromosome), we would therefore expect to find a similar pattern on the y chromosome. to investigate this, we tested whether diversity in microsatellites on the y chromosome showed similar patterns to the rest of the genome. we found a significant decline in diversity with increasing distance from africa r2 1/4  0.164, f1,49  1/4  10.8, p  1/4  0.002; figure 3 g and no relationship with minimum temperature r2 1/4  0.013, f1,48  1/4  1.7, p  1/4  0.193; figure 3 h ), mirroring the results for autosomal and x-chromosome diversity. having markers that are either passed down the male line or predominantly the female line provides us with a powerful test for an association between climate and mating system or sexbiased dispersal, which would be highlighted by a link between climate and the ratio of diversities at the two uniparental markers. when we modelled the distribution of ratios of diversity at the x and y chromosomes,
What does this paper analyze regarding climate change?
this paper analyses the feasibility and potential of a risk assessment framework for studies of regional impact of and adaptation to climate change
What do the maps produced in this paper display?
integrate climate variables and socio-economic parameters via a geographic information system (gis) tool to produce maps of estimated present and future public health risk
What conclusion do the maps in this paper draw?
a comparison of risk maps for present and future conditions shows that the number of locations where population will be at threat due to high temperature events will dramatically increase in quebec over the next few decades
the growing recognition of the need to plan institutional responses to the effects of climate change makes it essential to develop research support strategies and tools not only at global but also at regional scales. this paper analyses the feasibility and potential of a risk assessment framework for studies of regional impact of and adaptation to climate change. we assess the potential impact of high temperature events on humans in southern quebec. we integrate climate variables and socio-economic parameters via a geographic information system (gis) tool to produce maps of estimated present and future public health risk. a comparison of risk maps for present and future conditions shows that the number of locations where population will be at threat due to high temperature events will dramatically increase in quebec over the next few decades. key words: public health risk * high temperature events * southern quebec
How does PsyCap benefit employees and companies?
this study provides further evidence of the important role that psycap may play in positively impacting the performance and work attitudes of employees and potentially may contribute to an organization's competitive advantage
Can psychological capital be developed?
since psychological capital is ''state-like'' and there is at least preliminary evidence that it can be developed
How can an organization deal with the current "flat world" environment?
investing in and developing employees' psychological capital may be an example of the new thinking and new approaches that are needed for the ''flat world'' environment facing today's organizations and their leaders
several practical implications emerge from the results of the study. first, this study provides further evidence of the important role that psycap may play in positively impacting the performance and work attitudes of employees and potentially may contribute to an organization's competitive advantage. in other words, although important, it is not enough just to provide a positive or supportive organizational climate to get optimal impact on performance. this study would suggest that it may be important to recognize that the level of an employees' psychological capital may also play a role in leveraging what a positive or supportive organizational climate can contribute to performance. an implication for both better theoretical understanding and effective practice concerning the supportive climate-performance impact relationship is the role of psycap as an important psychological resource for today's organizations. in conclusion, the results of this study not only suggest the seeming value of employees' psychological capital at all levels within organizations, but also the benefits that may result from organizations providing positive, supportive climates. since psychological capital is ''state-like'' and there is at least preliminary evidence that it can be developed (e.g., luthans et al., 2006, in press), investing in and developing employees' psychological capital may be an example of the new thinking and new approaches that are needed for the ''flat world'' environment facing today's organizations and their leaders.
What did Michele Betsill find out?
michele betsill also found in a case study that cities were able to localize the policy 287 of climate change through publicizing the existence of co-benefits, but that in a couple cities, this occurred 288 instead of a localization of the actual problem of climate change
How many cities does it include?
the interviews suggest, 289 though, that several cities have also attempted to localize the problem of climate change through outreach
environment, 2002 ). michele betsill also found in a case study that cities were able to localize the policy 287 of climate change through publicizing the existence of co-benefits, but that in a couple cities, this occurred 288 instead of a localization of the actual problem of climate change betsill, 2000 ). the interviews suggest, 289 though, that several cities have also attempted to localize the problem of climate change through outreach 290 and educational efforts that focus on the predicted impacts of global climate change on the local region 291 (for example, brookline conservation commission, 2002; saint paul energy conservation project, 2000 292
What are the reasons for energy policy action?
of course, this does not preclude other sensible reasons for energy policy action related to climate (e.g., abrupt climate change) and energy policy action independent of climate change (such as national security, air pollution reduction and energy efficiency
In the context of extreme events, what should be the focus of intervention and investment?
it does suggest that reduction of human impacts related to weather and climate are not primary among those reasons, and arguments and advocacy to the contrary are not in concert with research in this area. governments and businesses are already heavily invested in climate policy and thus should focus resources on decisions likely to be effective with respect to policy goals. in the context of extreme events, such decisions might focus increasingly on land use, insurance, engineering, warnings and forecasts, risk assessments, and so on
policy related to societal impacts of climate has important and underappreciated dimensions that are independent of energy policy. it would be a misinterpretation of the meaning of our work to suggest that it supports business-as-usual energy policies, or obviates climate mitigation. but if a policy goal is to reduce the future impacts of climate on society, then energy policies are insufficient, and perhaps largely irrelevant, to achieving that goal. of course, this does not preclude other sensible reasons for energy policy action related to climate (e.g., abrupt climate change) and energy policy action independent of climate change (such as national security, air pollution reduction and energy efficiency). it does suggest that reduction of human impacts related to weather and climate are not primary among those reasons, and arguments and advocacy to the contrary are not in concert with research in this area. governments and businesses are already heavily invested in climate policy and thus should focus resources on decisions likely to be effective with respect to policy goals. in the context of extreme events, such decisions might focus increasingly on land use, insurance, engineering, warnings and forecasts, risk assessments, and so on. these policies can make a large difference in mitigating the future impacts of climate on society. focusing more attention on the integrated, multidisciplinary aspects of climate impacts will likely show that current research portfolios that are focused on long-term predictions of the climate future are out of balance with respect to the information needs of decision makers. we are embarking on a project that hopes to produce information that will help to identify such mismatches and recommend a range of options for climate science policy better suited to meeting the needs of decision makers.
how do heat gains occur?
heat gains occur from metabolic heat production (m) and short/longwave
how do heat losses occur?
and heat losses occur from convection (c), evaporation (e), and the emitted longwave
how is the total radiation absorbed by a human being estimated?
the total radiation absorbed by a human is estimated using a field validated and the following equation (kenny et al. 2008; vanos et al., 2012a
heat gains occur from metabolic heat production (m) and short/longwave radiation absorption (rabs), and heat losses occur from convection (c), evaporation (e), and the emitted longwave radiation (l). the model requires the following inputs: air temperature (oc), relative humidity (%), wind velocity (ms-1), static clothing resistance, and clothing vapour resistance (sm-1), metabolic activity (wm-2), and total absorbed radiation (wm-2). all simulations were modeled based on a standing person (metabolic activity 116 wm-2), in clothing typically worn in each location (clothing resistance range: 78-110 s m-1). the total radiation absorbed by a human is estimated using a field validated and the following equation (kenny et al. 2008; vanos et al., 2012a): r a!""
What does sectional representation allows?
the most general possible representation of aerosol size and composition
How is the aerosol chemical composition assumed within each section?
uniform and independent of those in other sections
although any size distribution (such as a power law or lognormal) can be used in the new parameterization, we select a sectional representation to allow the most general possible representation of aerosol size and composition. in this representation we divide the aerosol into an arbitrary number of size sections, each of which has its own chemical composition. each section, m is characterized by its lower and upper diameters, dp m  1 and dp m, respectively, and by the total number concentration of particles in the section, nm (figure 1a). the aerosol chemical composition within each section is assumed to be uniform and independent of those in other sections. a linear profile (which is a common assumption for sectional implementations of aerosol microphysics) of aerosol number concentration across a section is assumed. with these assumptions the size distribution, nd( dp) dn ddp over dp m  1  dp dp m, is given by
Which framework was employed in this work?
in this work we employ the budyko framework
How many hypotheses are examined in the study?
four central hypotheses are examined
What is the most general hypothesis in this work?
hypothesis 1: climate types and vegetation types explain a significant fraction of variation in evaporative index after accounting for effects of dryness index. this is our most general hypothesis and offers the most comprehensive analysis spanning the full range of fluxnet sites
in this work we employ the budyko framework, but unlike previous studies, we analyze direct measurements of evapotranspiration, and apply it at a smaller scale (of order 1 km2) for which land cover and climate type are more clearly defined. in particular, we explore to what degree site-specific land cover and climate characteristics can explain departures from an average curve fit through data from all of the sites. four central hypotheses are examined: hypothesis 1: climate types and vegetation types explain a significant fraction of variation in evaporative index after accounting for effects of dryness index. this is our most general hypothesis and offers the most comprehensive analysis spanning the full range of fluxnet sites. it asks if vegetation or climate types act as additional controls on evaporative index, either increasing it or decreasing it relative to the expected value based on dryness index. hypothesis 2: the evaporative index realized at a particular dryness is lower for sites with a larger seasonal hydrologic surplus (defined below, equation (2)), particularly at sites with a winter wet (mediterranean) climate, compared to summer wet sites of the same dryness ep/ p ). increased seasonal surplus can be expected to elevate drainage and runoff because of increased frequency of saturation overland flow and gravity drainage processes. the mediterranean case examines a specific kind of seasonal surplus--one caused by the seasonal phase shift between rainfall and evaporative demand in winter wet climates. while this is a commonly held view and has been examined in the past, this study offers the first explicit examination of this hypothesis with a large data set of evapotranspiration at the ecosystem level. hypothesis 3: grasslands have a lower evaporative index e p compared to forests of the same dryness index. this is expected because grasses are generally thought to have shallower root systems that lack access to the full storage of water in the vadose zone (unsaturated and saturated), and grasslands tend to have lower leaf area and associated interception capacity, and hence less direct evaporation of intercepted water. hypothesis 4: sites with a larger fraction of frozen precipitation have a lower evaporative index e p for a given dryness index. this derives from an expectation of potentially rapid, rain-on-snow driven runoff that might elevate losses during a time of year when vegetation is less actively drawing moisture from the root zone because of cool or cold temperatures.
Which crops will be the most severely affected?
crops like sugarcane, rice, and wheat that are water-intensive and are grown extensively in the region will be most severely affected
Why are there restrictions occuring in the growth of sugarcane and rice?
restrictions in growth of sugarcane and rice can occur due to changes in mean temperatures and rainfall patterns venkataraman and krishnan, 1992 
What is an important factor in rice production?
the start of the monsoon season is an important factor in rice production
declining crop yields -- since the changes in the rainfall pattern will have a direct impact on the groundwater recharge volumes, intensity of irrigation in the region will be affected. crops like sugarcane, rice, and wheat that are water-intensive and are grown extensively in the region will be most severely affected. restrictions in growth of sugarcane and rice can occur due to changes in mean temperatures and rainfall patterns venkataraman and krishnan, 1992 ). the start of the monsoon season is an important factor in rice production. in some cases, the sowing and harvesting time of these crops may also have to be shifted as temperatures and humidity levels vary, and any change in these conditions may affect the growth of these crops and reduce yields.
Explanatory capacity of models has how many types of temperature?
explanatory capacity of models for the three types of temperature
what does Table S1 represents?
table s1. results of the repeated-measures anova to test for differences in the explanatory capacity of temperature, precipitation and nao models
what is the use of ANOVA?
anova to test for differences in the pure explanatory capacity of climatic variables
additional supporting information may be found in the online version of this article: figure s1. explanatory capacity of models for the three types of temperature. figure s2. delayed effect of climate on fruiting phenology. table s1. results of the repeated-measures anova to test for differences in the explanatory capacity of temperature, precipitation and nao models. table s2. results of the repeated-measures anova to test for differences in the explanatory capacity of mean, maximum and minimum temperature models. table s3. results of the relationship between explanatory capacity of complete climatic models and date nested within events. table s4. results of the repeated-measures anova to test for differences in the pure explanatory capacity of climatic variables. appendix s1 exploration of collinearity between climatic variables. appendix s2 temporal trends of climate in spain 1943- 2003. appendix s3 supplementary figures (s1-s2) and tables (s1-s4). please note: wiley-blackwell are not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting materials supplied by the authors. any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
What would help strengthen causal inferences in future research?
the use of a longitudinal or experimental design in future research would help strengthen causal inferences
What could future studies examine?
future studies could also move beyond climate measures to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational culture with direct measures of innovative behavior
What could organizational culture influence?
it is entirely possible that organizational culture influences leadership behaviors
we must acknowledge some limitations to the study. as noted above, the use of a cross-sectional, nonexperimental design limits causal inferences. indeed, there is always the possibility of reverse causal relationships among the variables. for example, it is entirely possible that organizational culture influences leadership behaviors. the use of a longitudinal or experimental design in future research would help strengthen causal inferences. nevertheless, it is important to note that the results of our structural equation model are consistent with theoretical predictions based on extant research. this study used the perceptions of managers and senior executives as the data source. we believe that top managers are in a good position to observe the culture of an organization, consistent with the proposition that only the top echelons of leaders are in a position to significantly influence cultural identity and change (bass, 1999; katz kahn, 1978; schein, 1992). as the data were self-reports, we controlled for social desirability and found little evidence of such bias in the data. however, it could be argued that as the data were gathered by a singleorganizationalinformant design, this approach may have exposed the study to common method variance. although spector (2006) has argued it is incorrect to assume that the use of a single method automatically introduces systematic bias, it is recommended that future research gather measures of independent and dependent variables from different data sources (e.g., subordinate ratings of transformational leadership behaviors and more objective measures of organizational outcomes) to minimize the effects of any response bias (cf. podsakoff et al., 2003). finally, future studies could also move beyond climate measures to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational culture with direct measures of innovative behavior.
What are the results of the analysis of the variations in rainfall and temperatures?
for the interior variety, we found that low precipitation and high growing season temperatures limit growth, with the more southern and outlying populations responding less negatively to drought conditions. the results indicate genetic adaptations to local climate and support the view that climate change may impact species throughout their range due to genetic adaptation of populations to local environments (e.g., hampe, 2004). projection of growth under 18 climate change scenarios suggest minor growth impacts for outlying populations in mexico, and the greatest vulnerability of douglas-fir populations at higher latitudes and higher elevations, confirming concerns that have previously been raised for example by pederson et al (2006) for a montana study site
What is the coastal variety of Douglas fir?
for the coastal variety of douglas-fir, we found positive correlations of ring width with summer precipitation and temperature of the proceeding winter, indicating that growth of coastal populations was limited by summer dryness and that photosynthesis in winter contributed to growth. however, we could not find a regional-level climate index that shows consistent positive or negative impacts of climate change on the observed chronology samples. we propose that while there may be local variations, climate change impacts are likely to be overall neutral for the coastal douglas-fir variety and interior populations of the 'inland rain forest' ecosystems
we conducted a continental scale analysis of existing douglas-fir chronologies to complement detailed regional scale studies. while the distribution of the available samples did not allow the detection of small-scale differences in plant-climate relationships (as for example in case peterson, 2005; littell et al ., 2008), the analysis did reveal broad geographic structure. plant- climate interactions and genetic adaptations at both scales need to be considered to predict potential climate change impacts (littell peterson, 2005). for the interior variety, we found that low precipitation and high growing season temperatures limit growth, with the more southern and outlying populations responding less negatively to drought conditions. the results indicate genetic adaptations to local climate and support the view that climate change may impact species throughout their range due to genetic adaptation of populations to local environments (e.g., hampe, 2004). projection of growth under 18 climate change scenarios suggest minor growth impacts for outlying populations in mexico, and the greatest vulnerability of douglas-fir populations at higher latitudes and higher elevations, confirming concerns that have previously been raised for example by pederson et al (2006) for a montana study site. for the coastal variety of douglas-fir, we found positive correlations of ring width with summer precipitation and temperature of the proceeding winter, indicating that growth of coastal populations was limited by summer dryness and that photosynthesis in winter contributed to growth. however, we could not find a regional-level climate index that shows consistent positive or negative impacts of climate change on the observed chronology samples. we propose that while there may be local variations, climate change impacts are likely to be overall neutral for the coastal douglas-fir variety and interior populations of the 'inland rain forest' ecosystems.
What concept is a central part of MarkSim?
a central part of marksim is the concept of a climate record
What is the temporal phase angle?
it includes the temporal phase angle, that is, the degree by which the climate record is "rotated" in date
Why is the temporal phase angle necessary?
this rotation is done to eliminate timing differences in climate events, such as the seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres, so that analysis can be done on standardised climate data
a central part of marksim is the concept of a climate record. this is independent of the scale of the data, but is constant in its form and acceptability to the rest of the marksim software. a climate record includes the information shown in table 3. it includes the temporal phase angle, that is, the degree by which the climate record is "rotated" in date. this rotation is done to eliminate timing differences in climate events, such as the seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres, so that analysis can be done on standardised climate data. the climate record is rotated to a standard date, using the 12-point fast fourier transform, on the basis of the first phase angle calculated using both rainfall and temperature. a discussion of the 13 13 methods used can be found in jones (1987) and jones et al. (2002). in marksim, almost all operations are done in rotated date space. table 3. table 3. standard climate record format variables fortran format latitude (decimal), longitude (decimal), elevation (m), temporal phase angle 2f10.5,i5,f7.4 monthly rainfall (mm) 12f5.0 mean daily temperature for each month (degc) 12f.5.1 diurnal temperature range for each month (degc) 12f5.1
Is the increase of warming in Norway more or less in the summer?
the increase is expected to be largest during winter and smallest during spring and summer
Rainfall over where affects the NAO index?
adding to the uncertainty, a significant amount of the rainfall over scandinavia can be associated with the north atlantic oscillation (nao) index. however, there is little consensus within
what was the increase of annual precipitation from 1961 to 1990?
n analysis based on 13 gcm models showed an increase of annual precipitation in norway of about 35-55 mm/year from 1961-1990 to 2010-2039 (benestad, 2000). uncertainty regarding the positive temperature and precipitation trends can be attributed to variations in future greenhouse gas emis
the projected regional warming from 1990 to 2050 over norway is 0.1 to 0.5*c/decade (benestad, 2002). the increase is expected to be largest during winter and smallest during spring and summer. at latitudes closer to the arctic region, the increase is even higher due to a reduction of the snow and ice cover (hulme and carter, 2000). in terms of precipitation, an analysis based on 13 gcm models showed an increase of annual precipitation in norway of about 35-55 mm/year from 1961-1990 to 2010-2039 (benestad, 2000). uncertainty regarding the positive temperature and precipitation trends can be attributed to variations in future greenhouse gas emissions, natural climate variability, and differences in the response of the climate system in individual gcms. with resolutions often on the order of 300 km x 300 km, coarse-resolution models also lack topographic detail for the scandinavian peninsula. adding to the uncertainty, a significant amount of the rainfall over scandinavia can be associated with the north atlantic oscillation (nao) index. however, there is little consensus within
Is the influent BOD value available for aerobic stabilisation higher or lower than the total value in raw sewage?
the influent bod value (so) available for aerobic stabilisation is, therefore, lower than the total value in the raw sewage
What does the value of So depend on?
the value of so to be adopted in the calculations depends on the anaerobic activity, which is a function of the temperature in the liquid
What type of decomposition does the sedimentation of the particulate organic matter of the raw sewage undergo in the bottom sludge?
facultative aerated lagoons allow the sedimentation of the particulate organic matter of the raw sewage, which undergoes anaerobic decomposition in the bottom sludge
this value is for the liquid temperature of 20*c. for other temperatures, equation 13.3 can be used, with th 1 035. with relation to the value of so to be used in the equations in table 13.4 and for the design of the aeration system, the following aspects should be taken into consideration. facultative aerated lagoons allow the sedimentation of the particulate organic matter of the raw sewage, which undergoes anaerobic decomposition in the bottom sludge. the influent bod value (so) available for aerobic stabilisation is, therefore, lower than the total value in the raw sewage. the value of so to be adopted in the calculations depends on the anaerobic activity, which is a function of the temperature in the liquid. consequently, the following two conditions can happen regarding the organic matter in the bottom sludge (arceivala, 1981):
What is the UNFCC the only global study to have?
the unfccc study is the only global one with specific details for natural ecosystems and it is predicated on the assumption that a first step in adaptation is bringing current pan up to an arbitrary level
What is problematic about natural ecosystems?
the costing of adaptation in natural ecosystems is inherently problematic
How does one calculate the cost of adaptation?
 if global costs of adaptation are to be calculated, there is a need to establish what actions truly constitute adaptation to climate change, to identify the limits of adaptation and thus the residual damages, to find ways of valuing the full suite of adaptation measures that can be applied globally and to integrate these costs across sectors
the costing of adaptation in natural ecosystems is inherently problematic. while there are guiding principles for adaptation there are few case studies of measures that have been implemented purely as an adaptation to climate change and even fewer have been fully costed. these studies are local to regional and context-specific, making extrapolation to the global scale unwise. the unfccc study is the only global one with specific details for natural ecosystems and it is predicated on the assumption that a first step in adaptation is bringing current pan up to an arbitrary level. it could be argued that this is a cost of conservation rather than adaptation, but given the current state of pan such expenditure could be viewed as making good the adaptation deficit caused by various drivers. if the costs of enhancing the conservation of ecosystems in the wider landscape are included, then the unfccc figures are a considerable under-estimate of the costs of adaptation, although the basis for these calculations, especially for agriculture, is much more speculative. care should be taken here that double counting does not occur as some sectoral adaptations can also constitute an adaptation for natural ecosystems. conversely, others may lead to additional costs. while all the figures are based on best available data, important assumptions underpin them and considerable gaps exist, leading to the need for extrapolation, sometimes from a limited base. if global costs of adaptation are to be calculated, there is a need to establish what actions truly constitute adaptation to climate change, to identify the limits of adaptation and thus the residual damages, to find ways of valuing the full suite of adaptation measures that can be applied globally and to integrate these costs across sectors.
What have long-range planning assumptions for supplies, demands, and constraints have typically been based on?
long-range planning assumptions for supplies, demands, and constraints have typically been based on information from the recent historical and observed record (labeled here as the "instrumental record
What are the assumed water supplies are based on?
in this practice, assumed water supplies are based on naturalized flows, which are computed from historical streamgage data, ground-water well logs, and impairment information
What does the the following sections discuss?
the following sections discuss opportunities to affect how supply and demand assumptions are developed in order to incorporate this improved knowledge
long-range planning assumptions for supplies, demands, and constraints have typically been based on information from the recent historical and observed record (labeled here as the "instrumental record"). in this practice, assumed water supplies are based on naturalized flows, which are computed from historical streamgage data, ground-water well logs, and impairment information. water demands would be based on historical water use and land cover. reliance on the instrumental record to establish these assumptions implies that the past is a reasonable proxy for the future. in other words, it is assumed that the range of observations from the instrumental record includes enough situations to represent a reasonable envelope of plausible future conditions appropriate for planning. it is possible, though, that the future may contain situations that have not already been observed (for example, more extreme months or seasons, and more severe and sustained droughts). however, this possibility has generally not been compelling enough to trigger planning assumptions other than those supported by the instrumental record. this situation appears to be changing, however (see section 3.3), particularly as stakeholders become more informed about the scientific community's improved knowledge on climate of the preinstrumental record, recent trends in climate, and the projected future climate, and they expect such knowledge to be factored into planning. the following sections discuss opportunities to affect how supply and demand assumptions are developed in order to incorporate this improved knowledge.
What are three limitations that should be considered with regards to the rainy-day fund?
first, it should optimally be added to early period expenses, and it can substitute for proactive adaptation (or mitigation) only when proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation are substitutes. second, the rainy-day fund is less adapted to auto-insure against early damages of climate change, since the balance may not be high enough when those occur. third, repeated drawdowns on the fund associated with repeated extreme weather events may not allow the rainy-day fund to replenish
What are the four components of the total climate bill?
mitigation, anticipative or proactive adaptation, coping or reactive adaptation, and ultimate damages
What would cause the rainy-day fund not to be able to replenish?
repeated drawdowns on the fund associated with repeated extreme weather events may not allow the rainy-day fund to replenish
finally, limitations to the rainy-day fund should be considered. first, it should optimally be added to early period expenses, and it can substitute for proactive adaptation (or mitigation) only when proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation are substitutes. second, the rainy-day fund is less adapted to auto-insure against early damages of climate change, since the balance may not be high enough when those occur. third, repeated drawdowns on the fund associated with repeated extreme weather events may not allow the rainy-day fund to replenish. the study of the optimal use of a rainy-day fund in a dynamic setting at both the global and national level is an interesting question for future research. 6. conclusion this paper notes that the total climate bill consists of four different components: mitigation, anticipative or proactive adaptation, coping or reactive adaptation, and ultimate damages. in the presence of climate change, a
Define sustained?
thus what the review recommends constitutes nothing less than a strong and sustained reduction in the volume of ghgs emitted by global economic activity
Explain technically feasible?
this reduction is technically feasible, because there is already a set of techniques available today for achieving stabilisation (e.g. pacala and socolow, 2004
Define examination of the ways?
yet an examination of the ways in which this can be achieved shows that it is both technically and economically feasible and at a cost, which, while significant, is small in comparison with the range of benefits of doing so, at least up to the 450
thus what the review recommends constitutes nothing less than a strong and sustained reduction in the volume of ghgs emitted by global economic activity. yet an examination of the ways in which this can be achieved shows that it is both technically and economically feasible and at a cost, which, while significant, is small in comparison with the range of benefits of doing so, at least up to the 450-550 ppm co2e range (i.e., this conclusion is unlikely to apply to even lower stabilisation targets, essentially because we have already passed them). this reduction is technically feasible, because there is already a set of techniques available today for achieving stabilisation (e.g. pacala and socolow, 2004).9
What does the answer to the questions depend on?
time scale, the spatial scale, the variable (e.g. temperature, precipitation, sea ice, or sea-level rise) and the statistic (i.e. the mean of a quantity, its trend, the change in variability or extremes
What is required in this paper other than providing a final answer or attempting to put a skill score on a climate model?
try to outline how climate scientists think about their models, how they develop and improve them, and how they interpret their results
What are few ideas given at the end about?
how the need for 'near operational climate projections' may require us to rethink the way decisions are made in the model development and evaluation process
the answers to these questions depend on the time scale, the spatial scale, the variable (e.g. temperature, precipitation, sea ice, or sea-level rise) and the statistic (i.e. the mean of a quantity, its trend, the change in variability or extremes) in which we are interested. in this paper, rather than providing a final answer (which is unlikely to exist) or attempting to put a skill score on a climate model, i try to outline how climate scientists think about their models, how they develop and improve them, and how they interpret their results. i discuss sources of model bias and uncertainty and ways to evaluate models, and i try to explain why it is so difficult to quantify model performance. a few ideas are given at the end as to how the need for 'near operational climate projections' may require us to rethink the way decisions are made in the model development and evaluation process.
What happens when the substrate starts to be consumed?
the reaction rate starts to decrease
What happens when the substrate concentration is very low?
the reaction rate starts to be limited by the low availability of organic matter in the medium
What kind of matter is the substrate?
organic matte
reaction kinetics and reactor hydraulics 325 kinetics (see figure 8.5), as well as the transition between them. as mentioned before, at the start of a reaction of decomposition of substrate (organic matter), when the concentration is still high, there is no substrate limitation in the medium and the global removal rate approaches zero-order kinetic. when the substrate starts to be consumed, the reaction rate starts to decrease, characterising a transition region or mixed order. when the substrate concentration is very low, the reaction rate starts to be limited by the low availability of organic matter in the medium. in these conditions, the kinetics develops as in a first-order reaction. these situations occur as a function of the relative values of s and ks, as described below.
What are selection protocols ?
from this examination, several trends become clear. first, the definition of the burden to be shared is as important to distributive justice as the application of distribution rules. by considering both characteristics, the apparent diversity of policies can be grouped into three rough categories, each of which potentially has distributive justice implications. second, this examination identifies critical gaps in both the ethics and policy literatures, and suggests areas in which each community could consider investing further attention. each policy has a unique combination of mechanisms used to express distribution rules and assumptions about the nature of the problem, but they share some aspects
What is Climate Policy Cost?
these policies also emphasize the 'equal burden' distribution rule in a context in which the metric is either financial or actual emission reductions. this is the only category which includes policies focused on proportional reductions based on existing emission levels as a strategy for calculating costs. this category also includes those policies aimed exclusively at high emitters. within these proposals the assistance for developing countries would be limited to technological transfer in exchange for mitigation
What are economic costs?
the second category focuses on fair distribution of economic costs and climate change impacts to some extent this category resonates with a rawlsian approach, as many of the policies in this category are interested in protecting the most vulnerable from further harms and take the subjective
from this examination, several trends become clear. first, the definition of the burden to be shared is as important to distributive justice as the application of distribution rules. by considering both characteristics, the apparent diversity of policies can be grouped into three rough categories, each of which potentially has distributive justice implications. second, this examination identifies critical gaps in both the ethics and policy literatures, and suggests areas in which each community could consider investing further attention. each policy has a unique combination of mechanisms used to express distribution rules and assumptions about the nature of the problem, but they share some aspects. first, all include causal responsibility, typically expressed through either carbon taxes or cap-and-trade mechanisms. variation in their inclusion of historical causality, or compensatory justice, will be discussed later. another aspect that almost all policies share is the use of multiple distribution rules. with only three exceptions, all the policies include two or more distribution rules; nine include three or more of the core principles. this suggests that policy designers may try to incorporate multiple perspectives of distributive justice to increase the likelihood of acceptance. justice clearly matters strategically when designing climate policy. this article has differentiated policies according to their application of distribution rules, their assumptions about the nature of the problem of climate change, and the corresponding mandate of climate policy. what is important is not only variation in proposals across these dimensions independently but also interaction between them in particular policies. interactions between these dimensions were used to generate three categories of climate policy. informed by the conceptual differences between equity, fairness and justice discussed earlier, these categories are equitable division of climate policy costs, fair distribution of the burden of economic costs and climate change impacts, and compensatory justice for policy costs and liability for climate change damages. the first category stresses equitable division of the burden of climate policy policies in this category are more likely to apply assumptions of high substitutability and use price mechanisms or safety-valve hybrids which aim to minimize economic costs but incur the risk of ecological costs. these policies also emphasize the 'equal burden' distribution rule in a context in which the metric is either financial or actual emission reductions. this is the only category which includes policies focused on proportional reductions based on existing emission levels as a strategy for calculating costs. this category also includes those policies aimed exclusively at high emitters. within these proposals the assistance for developing countries would be limited to technological transfer in exchange for mitigation. these policies define the burden of climate policy in terms of emission reductions and mitigation costs, and may not include human development or the impacts of climate change. technological development and transfer is central in this category. policies with only weak mechanisms for resource transfer but with heavy emphasis on technological development for 'clean' energy have been placed into this category, as are all those for which technology is the central driving force of policy. policies in this category are generally concerned about equitable burdensharing. the goal is to minimize and distribute the economic costs of climate policy equally among nations. policies in this category include those discussed by aldy et al. (2001), barrett (2002), baumert and goldberg (2006), benedick (2001), bradford (2004), cooper (1998), mckibben and wilcoxen (2002), nordhaus (2001), stewart and wiener (2003) and wellington et al. (2007). the second category focuses on fair distribution of economic costs and climate change impacts to some extent this category resonates with a rawlsian approach, as many of the policies in this category are interested in protecting the most vulnerable from further harms and take the subjective
What do the parameterisations show?
model parameterisations thus shows that cost effectiveness imposes a mix of policies even though one of them should result particularly effective or cheap
what is the main qualitative difference?
only mitigation contributes to damage reduction while adaptation prevails afterward
Do all three options correlate?
a first important finding confirms that all these three options are strategic complements as each of them constitute one part of the answer to the problem
a first important finding confirms that all these three options are strategic complements as each of them constitute one part of the answer to the problem. this result is robust to a wide range of model parameterisations thus shows that cost effectiveness imposes a mix of policies even though one of them should result particularly effective or cheap. secondly, the structural differences between adaptation, investment in r&d and mitigation have been highlighted. under the benefit side, the first two are constrained by a "shorter" economic inertia, while the other by the "longer" environmental inertia. on the cost side adaptation and investment in r&d penalise capital accumulation in the long-term, while mitigation affects present output only. these facts define the optimal policy mix requiring to anticipating mitigation action (which starts in 2010) and waiting to adapt until damages are substantial (which occurs since 2040). as a main consequence, initially (until 2040 in the exercise) only mitigation contributes to damage reduction while adaptation prevails afterward. this is the main qualitative difference respect to de bruin et al. (2007) which is driven by this study's explicit modelling of adaptation as a stock variable. in addition some insights about the responsiveness of one strategy to the other have been provided. cross elasticity is always lower than one, but mitigation is roughly ten times more responsive to adaptation than
There are how many commom coping strategies?
there are two common coping strategies: active utilization of winter conditions or simple toleration of winter conditions
What kind of strategies are embodied in the phenology of spawning?
reproductive strategies are embodied in the phenology of spawning: the approach of winter conditions cues reproductive activity in many coldwater fish species, while the departure of winter conditions cues reproduction in many cool and warmwater fish species
If the zoogeographic distribution of a species cover a broad range of winter conditions, local populations may exhibit what?
if the zoogeographic distribution of a species covers a broad range of winter conditions, local populations may exhibit differences in their winter survival strategies that reflect adaptation to local conditions
thermal preference and performance provide the physiological frame within which fish species seek strategies to cope with the challenges raised by the low temperatures and low levels of oxygen and food that characterize winter. there are two common coping strategies: active utilization of winter conditions or simple toleration of winter conditions. the former is typical of winter specialist species with low preferred temperatures, and the latter is typical of species with higher preferred temperatures. reproductive strategies are embodied in the phenology of spawning: the approach of winter conditions cues reproductive activity in many coldwater fish species, while the departure of winter conditions cues reproduction in many cool and warmwater fish species. this cuing system promotes temporal partitioning of the food resources available to young-of-year fish and thus supports high diversity in freshwater fish communities. if the zoogeographic distribution of a species covers a broad range of winter conditions, local populations may exhibit differences in their winter survival strategies that reflect adaptation to local conditions. extreme winter specialists are found in shallow eutrophic lakes where long periods of ice cover cause winter oxygen levels to drop to levels that are lethal to many fish. the fish communities of these lakes are simple and composed of species that exhibit specialized adaptations for extended tolerance of very low temperatures and oxygen levels. zoogeographic boundaries for some species may be positioned at points on the landscape where the severity of winter overwhelms the species' repertoire of winter survival strategies. freshwater fish communities are vulnerable to many of the shifts in environmental conditions expected with climate change. temperate and northern communities are particularly vulnerable since the repertoires of physiological and behavioural strategies that characterize many of their members have been shaped by the adverse environmental conditions (e.g. cool short summers, long cold winters) that climate change is expected to mitigate. the responses of these strategies to the rapid relaxation of the adversities that shaped them will play a significant role in the overall responses of these fish populations and their communities to climate change. keywords thermal performance  bioenergetics  survival strategies  zoogeographic boundaries  climate change  winter kill in the northern hemisphere, the time frame that winter occupies in the annual round of seasons varies widely from
Which was the best performing model?
model 3
Which model had the lowest AIC value?
model 3
While under the low-emission scenario, when do the models suggest that S. balanoides may be locally extinct in southwest England?
by 2080
repeating the above model-fitting process for time series of averaged abundance at north coast sites produced very similar measures of model performance to those for models fit to south coast data (appendix e, compare table e1 to table e2). s. balanoides recruitment showed a similar decline with mean june sst when incorporating this function into model 1. the bestperforming model was again model 3 (fig. 4e, f; appendix e: table e2), combining temperaturedependent recruitment of s. balanoides with interspecific competition driving survival of chthamalus species. model 3 had the lowest aic value and akaike weights giving a likelihood of 56 of being the best of the four models for the north coast mid-shore time series. population changes under predicted climate change scenarios under all four future greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the abundance of s. balanoides decreased while the abundance of chthamalus species increased (fig. 5). this change was much more rapid at the high than the low emissions scenario. the models suggest that s. balanoides may be locally extinct in southwest england by 2050 under the high-greenhouse-gas emission scenario and by 2080 under the low-emission scenario. discussion
What do the examples of J. G. Pausas and J. E. Keeley suggest?
invasion increases fire activity
What are the highly flammable species able to support?
a new fire regime are going to be successful invaders through one of the plant-fire feedback cycles
Where has there been a tendency to plant flammable fast-growing exotic trees?
many mediterranean and subtropical landscapes over the world
j. g. pausas and j. e. keeley most examples suggest that invasion increases fire activity (brooks and others 2004 ). this is because highly flammable species that are able to support a new fire regime are going to be successful invaders through one of the plant-fire feedback cycles (figure 2 ). this is especially true in fuel-limited ecosystems, however, it is not exclusive to these ecosystems, as very flammable invasive species may significantly increase flammability in dense nonflammable forests (coffman and others 2010 ). another example of increased landscape flammability that very often drives abrupt fire regime changes is the plantation of exotic trees in fireprone ecosystems. there has been a tendency to plant flammable fast-growing exotic trees in many mediterranean and subtropical landscapes over the world. the prominent examples are the extensive pine plantations in the southern hemisphere (richardson and others 1994 simberloff and others 2010 and the eucalypt plantations worldwide out of australia (paquette and messier 2009 ).
Why can the gradual approach be dangerous?
because of the climate system's inertia
In what situation will it be extremely difficult to keep the warming below a target below 2 u C?
if high emissions continue much longer
What are the impacts of special interest and why?
impacts of special interest are sea level rise and species extermination, because they are practically irreversible, and others important to humankind
determination of the dangerous level of global warming inherently is partly subjective, but we must be as quantitative as possible. early estimates for dangerous global warming based on the ''burning embers'' approach [1,19-20] have been recognized as probably being too conservative a target of limiting warming to 2 u c has been widely adopted, as discussed above. we suspect, however, that this may be a case of inching toward a better answer. if our suspicion is correct, then that gradual approach is itself very dangerous, because of the climate system's inertia. it will become exceedingly difficult to keep warming below a target smaller than 2 u c, if high emissions continue much longer. we consider several important climate impacts and use evidence from current observations to assess the effect of 0.8 u c warming and paleoclimate data for the effect of larger warming, especially the eemian period, which had global mean temperature about 2 u c relative to pre-industrial time. impacts of special interest are sea level rise and species extermination, because they are practically irreversible, and others important to humankind.
Where are the impacts of heat waves greater?
the impacts of heat waves tend to be greater in urban, rather than suburban or rural areas, likely owing to both the 'heat island' effect (seefigure 2) and higher levels of air pollution
What will increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves?
however, higher air temperatures are also expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves
How will climate change effect winters and summers?
climate change is projected to cause milder winters and warmer summers
climate change is projected to cause milder winters and warmer summers. people will largely be able to adapt to gradual changes in average temperatures through normal acclimatization. however, higher air temperatures are also expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves. (16)heat waves can exceed the physiologic adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups, such as infants, the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. the impacts of heat waves tend to be greater in urban, rather than suburban or rural areas, likely owing to both the 'heat island' effect (seefigure 2) and higher levels of air pollution.(16)studies have suggested that an increase in the number of days of extreme heat (above 30degc) over this century, would result in greater heat-related mortality in some urban centres in southern canada. (24, 25)however, it should be noted that seasonal acclimatization and appropriate adaptation measures, such as access to air conditioning and necessary medical care, could reduce the number of deaths.(26)
What are some symptoms of salinity in rice plants?
the symptoms of salt injury in rice are stunted growth, rolling of leaves, white tips, drying of older leaves and grain sterility. soil salinity limits the rice plant's growth and development, resulting in yield losses of more than 50 percent (zeng and shanon, 2000
Are younger or older plants more susceptible to salinity damange?
though salinity affects all stages of the growth and development of the rice plant, when the rice is at the young seedling stage it becomes even more sensitive to salinity (shereen et al., 2005; deepa sankar, saleh and selvaraj, 2011
Is there a situation in the Mekong River Delta affecting rice paddies?
low water levels in viet nam's mekong river delta, the country's rice bowl, have resulted in an inward flow of salt water, increasing the salinity in the river water and endangering rice paddies
rice is considered to be moderately sensitive to salinity (irri, 1997). the symptoms of salt injury in rice are stunted growth, rolling of leaves, white tips, drying of older leaves and grain sterility. soil salinity limits the rice plant's growth and development, resulting in yield losses of more than 50 percent (zeng and shanon, 2000). sensitivity of rice to salinity stress varies with the growth stage. though salinity affects all stages of the growth and development of the rice plant, when the rice is at the young seedling stage it becomes even more sensitive to salinity (shereen et al., 2005; deepa sankar, saleh and selvaraj, 2011). existing guidelines (maas and grattan, 1999; hanson, grattan and fulton, 1999) indicate that rice yields are reduced by 12 percent for every unit of salinity (ds/m1). in the humid regions of southeast asia there are many hectares that are technically appropriate for rice production but are left uncultivated or are grown with very low yields because of salinity and problem soils. low water levels in viet nam's mekong river delta, the country's rice bowl, have resulted in an inward flow of salt water, increasing the salinity in the river water and endangering rice paddies. in addition, in the rainfed rice fields
OLR has been described as a good proxy for precipitation over which geographical area?
olr has been described as a good proxy for precipitation over tropical south america
How many years of recorded tropical Andes OLR changes were studied?
igure 3 shows this change (in mm yr- 1) as recorded by 42 stations in the tropical andes between 1950 and 1994 (45 years
What was the overall finding on spatial coherence in station trends and pattern of precipitation change?
overall there is little spatial coherence between the various station trends and no clear pattern of increasing or decreasing precipitation emerges
since olr has been described as a good proxy for precipitation over tropical south america (i.e., liebmann et al., 1998), it is worthwhile investigating whether the observed weak long-term changes in olr are accompanied by contemporaneous trends in precipitation (e.g., morrissey and graham, 1996). figure 3 shows this change (in mm yr- 1) as recorded by 42 stations in the tropical andes between 1950 and 1994 (45 years). overall there is little spatial coherence between the various station trends and no clear pattern of increasing or decreasing precipitation emerges. on the regional scale a weak tendency toward increased precipitation in northern peru, between 5*s and 11*s for both the annual sum (figure 3a) and the seasonal patterns (figures 3b-c) emerges. in southern peru and along the 82 mathias vuille et al.
When were the two periods of global warming occur?
the global warming observed near the surface of the earth over the twentieth century did not occur at a constant rate; instead, there were two periods of warming in the early and later parts of the century
What happened between these two period of global warming?
there were two periods of warming in the early and later parts of the century, with a period of about 30 yr in the middle of the century when temperatures cooled slightly
Are there many or few simulations of climate change models been made over the last century?
a large number of coupled general circulation ocean- atmosphere model simulations now exist of climate change over the last century
the global warming observed near the surface of the earth over the twentieth century did not occur at a constant rate; instead, there were two periods of warming in the early and later parts of the century, with a period of about 30 yr in the middle of the century when temperatures cooled slightly (jones and moberg 2003). a large number of coupled general circulation ocean- atmosphere model simulations now exist of climate change over the last century. many of these simulations contain a selection of the most important climate forcings, both of anthropogenic and natural origin. as part
Name the model widely used for rainfall occurrence?
the first - order markov chain has been widely used as a simple model for rainfall occurrence katz 1977; wilks 1998; wilks and wilby 1999
Name the parameters used to model the skewed distribution of rainfall intensities?
the two - parameter gamma distribution is often used katz 1977; vrac et al. 2007d], although this is not the only choice; for example, wilks [1998] uses a mixture of two exponential distributions
Describe the way of achieving precipitation occurrence and intensity alternatively?
the most common way of achieving this is using a power - transformed and truncated normal distribution [e.g., bardossy and plate 1992
the first - order markov chain has been widely used as a simple model for rainfall occurrence katz 1977; wilks 1998; wilks and wilby 1999]. however, first - order models usually underrepresent long dry spells, and this has led to the use of more complex higher - order models mason 2004; stern and coe 1984]. to model the skewed distribution of rainfall intensities, the two - parameter gamma distribution is often used katz 1977; vrac et al. 2007d], although this is not the only choice; for example, wilks [1998] uses a mixture of two exponential distributions. in the simplest daily weather generators, nonzero intensities are sampled independently for each wet day. to incorporate seasonality in these weather generators, parameters are typically estimated separately for each month or season. as an alternative to the separate modeling of precipitation occurrence and intensity, some authors have proposed modeling the two components together. the most common way of achieving this is using a power - transformed and truncated normal distribution [e.g., bardossy and plate 1992]. for example, if yt is the rainfall at time t then a common family of transformations is
What did fisher examine in 1925?
fisher (1925) examined the effects of rainfall on wheat yields
and What did Wright examine in 1928?
wright (1928) used weather as an instrumental variable to identify a demand function for oils
What has the recent literature on the economic impacts of climate change put the spotlight on?
the relatively recent literature on the economic impacts of climate change has turned the spotlight onto quantifying the effect of climate on a number of economic outcomes of interest (e.g., agricultural yields, mortality rates, electricity and water demand
there is a long history of using weather measures as explanatory variables in statistical models. for example, fisher (1925) examined the effects of rainfall on wheat yields, and wright (1928) used weather as an instrumental variable to identify a demand function for oils. because weather is exogenous and random in most economic applications, it acts like a " natural experiment " and thus in some settings allows researchers to identify statistically the causal effect of one variable on an economic outcome of interest (angrist and krueger 2001). the relatively recent literature on the economic impacts of climate change has turned the spotlight onto quantifying the effect of climate on a number of economic outcomes of interest (e.g., agricultural yields, mortality rates, electricity and water demand). this literature has often found a nonlinear relationship between climate and these outcomes, with extremely warm temperatures being especially important (e.g., schlenker and roberts 2009). climate is a long average of weather at a given location. to identify the causal effect of climate on these outcomes, the literature has generally relied on either climate normals (i.e., long averages of observed weather in a cross-sectional setting) or day-to-day (or year-to-year) fluctuations in observed weather as explanatory variables across time and space. the econometrician's choice of a weather versus a climate measure as an explanatory variable critically affects the interpretation of the estimated coefficients in the econometric model: that is, whether the outcome is a true climate response or a short-run weather elasticity.
What is important in determining whether or not a system can perform satisfactorily?
variations and timing of extremes within a particular set of supply-and-demand assumptions may be very important in determining whether or not a system can perform satisfactorily
What are the steps involved in stochastic development of hydroclimatic scenarios?
generally speaking, stochastic development of hydroclimatic scenarios involves the following steps: (1) choosing a reference period from which hydroclimatic statistics will be preserved; (2) collecting data from the reference period; (3) building a stochastic model, perhaps using parametric (stedinger and taylor, 1982a,b; salas, 1993) or nonparametric techniques (lall and sharma, 1996); (4) verifying that the model preserves reference hydroclimate statistics and autocorrelation characteristics; and (\\x04) applying the model to generate synthetic hydrologic sequences for planning purposes
What are the two approaches to use paleoclimatic information into planning presented in this paragraph?
given a choice to incorporate paleoclimatic information into planning, there are several ways in which such information can be used. one approach is to directly use the information for both reference climate statistics and sequencing. this involves the assumption that the hydroclimatic statistics and sequence from the reconstructed record are valid for future planning. a second approach might build on the first to include stochastic modeling to expand the set of sequence possibilities
variations and timing of extremes within a particular set of supply-and-demand assumptions may be very important in determining whether or not a system can perform satisfactorily. these variations reflect hydroclimatic variability (that is, variations in temperature, precipitation, and runoff over various time scales). to expand on the historical record basis for planning, one planning response is to preserve the statistics of the instrumental record, while allowing for possible changes in the sequencing of conditions. this gives rise to the plausibility of developing synthetic hydroclimatic time series using stochastic modeling. doing so introduces an expanded set of planning assumptions about plausible droughts and other hydroclimatic extremes. generally speaking, stochastic development of hydroclimatic scenarios involves the following steps: (1) choosing a reference period from which hydroclimatic statistics will be preserved; (2) collecting data from the reference period; (3) building a stochastic model, perhaps using parametric (stedinger and taylor, 1982a,b; salas, 1993) or nonparametric techniques (lall and sharma, 1996); (4) verifying that the model preserves reference hydroclimate statistics and autocorrelation characteristics; and (\\x04) applying the model to generate synthetic hydrologic sequences for planning purposes. for this discussion, the emphasis is on step (1). the reference period must portray a climate that is still relevant for the planning future. the instrumental record offers one reference period to support stochastic modeling. other reference periods might be considered, including those from the paleoclimatic record (for example, evidence found in tree rings, sediment deposits, and sand dunes). other uses for the paleoclimatic record are discussed below. a variety of techniques have been developed to translate paleoclimatic data into hydroclimatic reconstructions (appendix a). for example, tree ring records have been used to reconstruct annual streamflow in various western u.s. basins. in general, these reconstructions are less reliable as indicators of past hydroclimatic magnitudes in any specific year and are instead more reliable as relative state indicators (that is, whether a reconstructed year was wet or dry relative to the reconstructed period median). such state information is particularly useful for planning when the affected decision is sensitive to system performance under drought or other sequence variation possibilities. this has motivated numerous water resource agencies to incorporate streamflow reconstructions based on tree rings into their planning assumptions about supply variability (woodhouse and lukas, 2006; bureau of reclamation, 2007). paleoclimatic information may indicate a wider range of hydroclimatic variability prior to instrumental records. determining the relevance of paleoclimatic information to support planning in today's changing climate remains a matter of research. such context also depends on recent climate trends and projected climate change that may exist outside of the climate envelope indicated by paleoclimatic information. given a choice to incorporate paleoclimatic information into planning, there are several ways in which such information can be used. one approach is to directly use the information for both reference climate statistics and sequencing. this involves the assumption that the hydroclimatic statistics and sequence from the reconstructed record are valid for future planning. a second approach might build on the first to include stochastic modeling to expand the set of sequence possibilities. each sequence would reflect the statistics of the reconstructed record but would offer different sequencing. a consequence of these approaches is that assumed runoff magnitudes (for example, monthly-to-annual volume possibilities) are a representation of the paleorecord. it may be preferred to have these magnitudes represent the instrumental record while retaining the sequence possibilities of the paleorecord. this gives rise to a third approach, where the stochastic model is first used to generate categorical sequences (for example, wet versus dry), and a second stage is used to associate runoff magnitudes from the instrumental record (bureau of reclamation, 2007).
How was the Green Permit Program made possible?
the green permit program was made possible due to the strong leadership of the chicago mayor and the efficient processing of the applications by the dob
What are some additional benefits of the Green Permit Program?
additional benefits of the green permit programme include mitigation of climate change through reduced need for heating and cooling in buildings with green roofs, enhancing the image of the city and the emergence of businesses specialising in green roof installation
What is the purpose of this iniative?
the initiative is a part of larger portfolio of initiatives aimed at making chicago's built environment greener and more sustainable
chicago's department of buildings has developed an incentive program that encourages developers to incorporate environmentally conscious design elements, including green roofs on new buildings. this is known as the green permit program. the incentive is an expedited permit process, through which developers can save both time and money. the initiative is a part of larger portfolio of initiatives aimed at making chicago's built environment greener and more sustainable. the green permit program was made possible due to the strong leadership of the chicago mayor and the efficient processing of the applications by the dob. additional benefits of the green permit programme include mitigation of climate change through reduced need for heating and cooling in buildings with green roofs, enhancing the image of the city and the emergence of businesses specialising in green roof installation.
Who followed the analysis test?
 analysis is by friedman test followed by friedman multiple comparisons test
What does the letter indicate?
 letters indicate homogenous subgroups, n 134 sites for each scenario
fig. 4. mean magnitude of change between current and future projected (a) macroinvertebrate taxa richness and (b) fish species richness to five climate change and land-use change scenarios at the regional scale. bars represent means  1 se. analysis is by friedman test followed by friedman multiple comparisons test. letters indicate homogenous subgroups, n 134 sites for each scenario. table 2. sensitivity of macroinvertebrate taxa richness and fish species richness to key climate, land-use and water quality variables at the site scale expressed using entropy reduction (see marcot 2006 for details)* variable macroinvertebrate entropy reduction fish entropy reduction macroinvertebrates 0  4943+
What do estuaries, beaches, dunes, wetlands and intertidal and nearshore zones support?
a diverse range of marine and terrestrial species
What are estuaries, beaches, dunes, wetlands and intertidal and nearshore zones?
key areas for fisheries and recreation
What is coastal infrastructure essential for?
trade, transportation and tourism
estuaries, beaches, dunes, wetlands and intertidal and nearshore zones support a diverse range of marine and terrestrial species and are key areas for fisheries and recreation. coastal infrastructure is essential for trade, transportation and tourism, and is the lifeblood of many coastal municipalities. a similar interface extends along the shores of large lakes; for that reason, the great lakes, in particular, are often included in discussions of canada's coastal zone.(4)comparable issues also arise in areas adjacent to other large canadian lakes (e.g., reference 5). climate changes of the magnitude projected for the present century by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) would impact the coastal zone in many ways. these include changes in water levels, wave patterns, the magnitude of storm surges, and the duration and thickness of seasonal ice coverage.(3)emphasis is commonly placed on water level changes because these would be extensive, though variable, throughout the coastal zone. mean global sea level rise, resulting from thermal expansion of ocean waters and increased melting of glaciers and ice caps, will be the primary influence for water level changes along marine coasts.(6,7)
Why are many Australian plants species predisposed to early extinction?
many australian plant species are restricted in geographic and climatic range and may therefore be predisposed to early extinction or displacement under climate change
What is expected to happen if there is a modest change in Australian rainfall?n
although the actual climatic tolerances of many species may be wider than the climatic envelope they currently occupy, if even a modest proportion of present day boundaries reflect thermal or rainfall tolerances, substantial changes in the australian tree flora may be expected in the future
many australian plant species are restricted in geographic and climatic range and may therefore be predisposed to early extinction or displacement under climate change (pouliquen-young newman 2000). many species in the genus eucalyptus for example, which dominates more than 90% of australian forests and woodlands (pryor johnson 1981), have sharply defined, narrow geographic ranges that are closely associated with local environmental conditions such as soil and drainage. bioclim modelling indicated that 53% of 819 eucalypt species have current ranges spanning less than 3  c of mean annual temperature, with 41% having a range less than 2  c and 25% with less than 1  c (hughes et al 1996). in addition, 23% of species have ranges of mean annual rainfall that span less than 20% variation (hughes et al 1996). although the actual climatic tolerances of many species may be wider than the climatic envelope they currently occupy, if even a modest proportion of present day boundaries reflect thermal or rainfall tolerances, substantial changes in the australian tree flora may be expected in the future.
For over 150 years, what have industrial societies gradually transferred to combust, or 'dump' carbon emissions ?
to a more active and rapidly circulating carbon pool, or 'dump', in the air, oceans, vegetation and soil
At what percentage has the IPCC recommended cuts in fuel emissions to to stabilize CO2 atmospheric concentrations?
60-80
What did the 1997 Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC, which took effect on 16 February 2005, mandate in regards to industrialized CO2 emissions?
it mandates that industrialized country signatories freeze their emissions at an average of around 5% below 1990 science as culture vol. 14, no. 3, 203-235, september 2005
the climate change crisis is an example of a familiar problem of techno-politics--the overflowing waste dump. for over 150 years, industrial societies have been transferring fossil carbon from underground deposits of coal, oil and gas, via the combustion chamber, to a more active and rapidly circulating carbon pool, or 'dump', in the air, oceans, vegetation and soil. some of the fossil carbon being added to this active pool builds up in the atmosphere, at a current rate of around six extra billion tonnes of carbon dioxide every year. this overflow cannot go on indefinitely. if all the remaining fossil carbon were taken out of the ground and injected into the carbon pool on or near the surface, the earth would probably become uninhabitable (leggett, 1999). historically, global carbon-cycling capacity has been open to use by all, with no rules or laws applied except ones relating to pollutants that may accompany carbon dioxide. however, concern has grown that this capacity is both overused and unequally used. industrialized countries alone currently use far more of the absorptive capacity of the biosphere and atmosphere to stow their carbon emissions in than is 'available', with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) famously stating that 60-80% cuts in fossil fuel emissions will be necessary in order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (ipcc, 1990). pointing out that the 'largest share of historical and current emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries', the un framework convention on climate change (unfccc) insists that north and south have 'differentiated responsibilities' for dealing with the problem (unfccc, 1992). the 1997 kyoto protocol of the unfccc, which took effect on 16 february 2005, duly gestures toward both emissions reductions and equity. it mandates that industrialized country signatories freeze their emissions at an average of around 5% below 1990 science as culture vol. 14, no. 3, 203-235, september 2005
Who predict significant warming around the globe under higher levels of greenhouse gases IPCC, 2001?
global circulation models (gcms) predict significant warming around the globe under higher levels of greenhouse gases ipcc, 2001 
Which region show proportionately greater warming in GCM?
although the amplitude of the warming varies according to the particular gcm used, they all show proportionately greater warming in the subarctic and arctic regions
What changes will impact the ocean's water properties?
these atmospheric changes will impact the ocean's water properties, circulation, and ultimately, the marine ecosystem
global circulation models (gcms) predict significant warming around the globe under higher levels of greenhouse gases ipcc, 2001 ). although the amplitude of the warming varies according to the particular gcm used, they all show proportionately greater warming in the subarctic and arctic regions. precipitation and the wind fields are expected to change also, although the uncertainty associated with these is much higher than that of temperature. these atmospheric changes will impact the ocean's water properties, circulation, and ultimately, the marine ecosystem. the increasing uncertainties involved in the progression from climate change to ocean response to ecosystem impacts have caused many to shy away from predicting possible ecosystem changes. however, politicians, fisheries managers, and, increasingly, the public are demanding predictions from scientists about the most likely outcome of such climate change. given the implications of the predictions of gcms, future planning must include, or at the very least, acknowledge the possibility of climate change and its ramifications. therefore, it is paramount that, as knowledgeable scientists, we provide such information, while at the same time stressing the uncertainty of our predictions. the approach taken in this paper is to couple current knowledge about the impact of climate variability on atlantic cod gadus morhua with predictions of future climate change. cod was chosen because it is one of the most studied species in the north atlantic, and our knowledge of its life history and its response to ocean climate variability surpasses that of most other fish species. it has a pan-atlantic distribution figure 1 and inhabits waters with temperatures ranging from below  1 c to over 20 c, although
What is mitigation in regards to climate?
radically reducing the production of greenhouse gases to reduce the hazard
What do analysts tend to dwell on?
analysts often dwell on particular unidimensional aspects of the problem: how a micro-grid or building control system, or wall construction or glass type works under particular conditions
What must we all be prepared for when building for the future?
in every country on earth, 1 regardless of class, creed or wealth, buildings must be made more resilient to the changes ahead because ultimately no one can buy their way out of the impacts of a cyclone
mitigation: radically reducing the production of greenhouse gases to reduce the hazard. <s121>* adaptation of our buildings and cities to minimize the exposure of communities to the impacts of a changing climate. <s121>* protection of the most vulnerable individuals and communities against the plethora of related social, economic and environmental hazards we face together. without equity of opportunity to survive with decency there can be no security for anyone. in every country on earth, 1 regardless of class, creed or wealth, buildings must be made more resilient to the changes ahead because ultimately no one can buy their way out of the impacts of a cyclone. many learned books and reports on the subject of adapting buildings to climate change try to fudge the problems concerning buildings because of the daunting scale of the necessary changes ahead. they are easily fudged. analysts often dwell on particular unidimensional aspects of the problem: how a micro-grid or building control system, or wall construction or glass type works under particular conditions. 2 they offer small incremental changes but do not challenge the very nature of the beast, the fundamental paradigms of the buildings that our cities, designers, industry and the marketplace accept ' how we do things today ' however, conventional twentieth century wisdom must now change rapidly in the face of the catastrophic events happening all around us.
How much of the world's soil carbon is in peatlands?
peatlands are global reservoirs of approximately 33% of the world's soil carbon (c
What's the chemical formula for carbon dioxide?
carbon dioxide (co2
What's teh chemical formula for methane?
methane (ch4
peatlands are global reservoirs of approximately 33% of the world's soil carbon (c). as long-term term sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (co2) (gorham 1991) and persistent sources of methane (ch4), they are important components of the global c cycle and represent important biospheric feedbacks to climate. this feedback is especially important because climate changes are expected to be greatest in northern regions (mitchell 1989), where most of the world's peatlands are located (moore 2002). mitchell (1989) predicted a temperature increase of 3  c and an increase in annual precipitation of 1 mm d) 1for northern canada in a 2 * co2 scenario. using the mitchell (1989) scenario and a simple water balance, roulet and others (1992) predicted that despite the increased precipitation, higher temperatures would lead to
What analyses improved our knowledge of rain diversity variations?
analysis of large data sets (i.e. a.h. gentry's work, slik et al 2003) and the existence of extended scientific networks (atdn, rainfor, ctfs) have strongly improved our knowledge of rain forest diversity variation, providing a basis for intensive and efficient research
Where are the analysis  insufficiently developed?
such coordinated efforts are insufficiently developed in africa, and as a consequence the literature about rain forest diversity often lacks reference to african data
What's the future perspective?
in the future, understanding of the lower species richness and diversity of african rain forests relative to amazonian and south-east asian rain forests will certainly benefit from phylogenetic studies of the african forest's component species (pennington et al 2004; plana 2004) and from further intercontinental comparative analyses of the structure and dynamism of rain forest communities
analysis of large data sets (i.e. a.h. gentry's work, slik et al 2003) and the existence of extended scientific networks (atdn, rainfor, ctfs) have strongly improved our knowledge of rain forest diversity variation, providing a basis for intensive and efficient research. such coordinated efforts are insufficiently developed in africa, and as a consequence the literature about rain forest diversity often lacks reference to african data. our comparison of the tree a -diversity of small plots in the african and amazonian rain forests has highlighted the large differences in one facet of diversity-climate relationships between the two continents: that pertaining to the alpha diversity values of small blocks of forest. in the future, understanding of the lower species richness and diversity of african rain forests relative to amazonian and south-east asian rain forests will certainly benefit from phylogenetic studies of the african forest's component species (pennington et al 2004; plana 2004) and from further intercontinental comparative analyses of the structure and dynamism of rain forest communities.
Which gradient HBEF provide?
hbef provided marked variation in snow depth and soil frost
Explain recent modeling analyses?
these results are in contrast to recent modeling analyses (henry 2008 ), including some at hubbard brook (hong and others 2005 ), that have suggested that warmer temperatures will result in less soil freezing in many areas
Which depends upon soil freezing?
soil freezing depends on soil temperature at critical periods when the snowpack is developing, for example, one outbreak of cold air before snowpack develops can cause soils to be frozen for the entire winter
p. m. groffman and others the elevation gradient at hbef provided marked variation in snow depth and soil frost. snowpack at low elevation developed later, and to less depth than at high elevation, facilitating the development and maintenance of soil frost. in 2002/2003, one of the high elevation plots had no soil frost and the other had minor and non-persistent frost. in 2003/ 2004 there was less snow and frost was observed on all plots, but it came earlier and was deeper on the low elevation plots. these results support the idea that there will be ''colder soils in a warmer world'' (or at least more soil freezing) in winter due to the loss of insulation provided by a snowpack (groffman and others 2001a ). these results are in contrast to recent modeling analyses (henry 2008 ), including some at hubbard brook (hong and others 2005 ), that have suggested that warmer temperatures will result in less soil freezing in many areas. ultimately, soil freezing depends on soil temperature at critical periods when the snowpack is developing, for example, one outbreak of cold air before snowpack develops can cause soils to be frozen for the entire winter. both winters in our study had near average temperatures so, although our results suggest that the likelihood of soil freezing is increased by later development of a snowpack under current ''normal'' temperature regimes, longer term monitoring that includes winters with above average temperatures will be necessary to determine if soil freezing will be increasingly common in a warmer world with less snow.
Facultative ponds are largely used for?
for post-treatment of effluents from anaerobic ponds
The UASB reactor polishing pond configuration is?
is a very interesting alternative from the technical-economical-environmental point of view
facultative ponds are largely used for post-treatment of effluents from anaerobic ponds. these systems have the advantage of removing at a higher efficiency the pathogenic organisms present in the sewage, but their main disadvantage is the high concentration of algae in the final effluent, which leads to serious restrictions by some environmental agencies. when an efficient anaerobic pre-treatment is applied prior to the sewage discharge into a pond, the concentrations of organic matter and suspended solids are largely reduced, and consequently only a complementary removal of these two constituents will be required, needing much lower hydraulic detention times. in these conditions, the limiting factor that determines the minimum detention time (and, therefore, the volume and the area of a pond system) will usually be the removal of pathogenic organisms, and not the stabilisation of the organic matter. for this reason, the nomenclature polishing pond has been adopted to name those ponds intended for the post-treatment of effluents from efficient anaerobic systems, thus distinguishing them from the stabilisation pond, which treats raw sewage (cavalcanti et al ., 2001). the uasb reactor polishing pond configuration is a very interesting alternative from the technical-economical-environmental point of view, mainly when there are area limitations for the construction of only stabilisation ponds. in addition, the problems related to odours from anaerobic ponds can be avoided in plants utilising a uasb reactor and polishing pond, since the anaerobic reactor can be installed with odour control. this alternative is even more attractive when the effluent from the pond can be used for agricultural purposes, since the polishing ponds aim mainly at the removal of pathogenic organisms. because of its advantages, the post-treatment of effluents from anaerobic reactors through ponds has been common in developing countries. post-treatment of effluents from anaerobic reactors 813
How to spread vector born disease?
vector-borne diseases result from infections transmitted to humans and other animals by blood-feeding arthropods, such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas
Explain vector-borne and pathogens?
the vector-borne pathogens, which include viruses, rickettsiae, bacteria, protozoa, and worm parasites, spend part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded arthropod vector and thus are influenced by environmental change. the transmission patterns of these diseases may, therefore, be affected by ambient temperature
How to disease infect humans?
many vector-borne diseases are zoonoses caused by pathogens having nonhuman animals as their natural host. because they are not part of the natural transmission cycle, humans are only incidentally infected
vector-borne diseases result from infections transmitted to humans and other animals by blood-feeding arthropods, such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. the vector-borne pathogens, which include viruses, rickettsiae, bacteria, protozoa, and worm parasites, spend part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded arthropod vector and thus are influenced by environmental change. the transmission patterns of these diseases may, therefore, be affected by ambient temperature. however, temperature is only one of many factors that influence transmission dynamics (figure 1). rodent-borne diseases do not always involve an arthropod host and are therefore less directly affected by temperature. transmission of these infections frequently depends on rodent population density and behavior, which, in turn, depend upon environmental conditions and available food. many vector-borne diseases are zoonoses caused by pathogens having nonhuman animals as their natural host. because they are not part of the natural transmission cycle, humans are only incidentally infected. zoonoses usually persist in nature in silent transmission cycles between vectors and nonhuman hosts, going undetected unless they spill over and infect the human population. in contrast, the anthropogenic vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria, require no animal host and are transmitted from human to human by mosquito vectors. although these disease-causing pathogens are now rare in the united states, their mosquito vectors are still present.
why the areas are expected to experience the largest decline in rice production ?
these areas are expected to experience the largest decline in rice production due to climate change
What are the reasons for climate change?
his is for three reasons. first, these regions already experience significant declines in aus and aman rice production due to climate variability, which is expected to worsen under climate change. second, boro yields are severely affected by changes in mean rainfall, temperature and mean shifts in the flood hydrographs. thus, reductions in boro production limit the ability for these regions to compensate for lost aus and aman rice production during extreme events. the south is also affected the most by rising sea levels, which permanently reduce cultivable land
Who is vulnerable for consumption of household?
finally, the northwest is also vulnerable as the lost consumption is a large fraction of the existing household consumption. adaptation measures should focus on these areas
the south sits at the confluence of multiple climate risks, as shown throughout this study. these areas are expected to experience the largest decline in rice production due to climate change. this is for three reasons. first, these regions already experience significant declines in aus and aman rice production due to climate variability, which is expected to worsen under climate change. second, boro yields are severely affected by changes in mean rainfall, temperature and mean shifts in the flood hydrographs. thus, reductions in boro production limit the ability for these regions to compensate for lost aus and aman rice production during extreme events. the south is also affected the most by rising sea levels, which permanently reduce cultivable land. the largest percentage declines in per capita consumption are projected in these regions. finally, the northwest is also vulnerable as the lost consumption is a large fraction of the existing household consumption. adaptation measures should focus on these areas.
How could one see the evolution of climate models?
one may see the evolution of climate models such as the natural selection of organisms. successful components or pieces of models are kept and less effective ones are replaced. however, how large and diverse should the zoo of models be? there are at least two competing ways to allocate resources. model diversity helps to quantify uncertainty, and may increase the chances to discover something new or very different, while steady model improvement of a few existing models helps to improve the fitness for a particular purpose but may be less likely to change things dramatically. with few exceptions stainforth et al 2005 ), aogcm modelling has traditionally taken the latter approach, in which a single model in each institution is made as complex as can be afforded randall et al 2007 
What is the motivation of these models?
the motivation to use models can be to understand the climate system, to quantify feedbacks, to test hypotheses or to make projections. model development at least for aogcms is partly guided by curiosity and the attempt to learn about the system. the focus on process understanding might partly explain the attempt to reproduce reality with a single model as accurately as possible. research to improve models will still benefit from that traditional approach in the future. studying the model response to a perturbation has always been a central part of research, but funding agencies, the ipcc and model intercomparison such as cmip3 are currently pushing these towards 'near-operational' climate predictions and projections, from seasonal to centennial time scales
What are the requirements of these models and how to determine the climate change in future?
the requirements for these in terms of the ideal model (or families of models) may be quite different from those for the 'curiosity-driven' modelling activities. i argue that more resources are needed to understand model results, and to develop frameworks to quantify uncertainty, model performance, compare different models and communicate results. many scientists work on model development and assessment, trying to understand the climate (which no doubt 4657 future climate change
one may see the evolution of climate models such as the natural selection of organisms. successful components or pieces of models are kept and less effective ones are replaced. however, how large and diverse should the zoo of models be? there are at least two competing ways to allocate resources. model diversity helps to quantify uncertainty, and may increase the chances to discover something new or very different, while steady model improvement of a few existing models helps to improve the fitness for a particular purpose but may be less likely to change things dramatically. with few exceptions stainforth et al 2005 ), aogcm modelling has traditionally taken the latter approach, in which a single model in each institution is made as complex as can be afforded randall et al 2007 ). the motivation to use models can be to understand the climate system, to quantify feedbacks, to test hypotheses or to make projections. model development at least for aogcms is partly guided by curiosity and the attempt to learn about the system. the focus on process understanding might partly explain the attempt to reproduce reality with a single model as accurately as possible. research to improve models will still benefit from that traditional approach in the future. studying the model response to a perturbation has always been a central part of research, but funding agencies, the ipcc and model intercomparison such as cmip3 are currently pushing these towards 'near-operational' climate predictions and projections, from seasonal to centennial time scales. the requirements for these in terms of the ideal model (or families of models) may be quite different from those for the 'curiosity-driven' modelling activities. i argue that more resources are needed to understand model results, and to develop frameworks to quantify uncertainty, model performance, compare different models and communicate results. many scientists work on model development and assessment, trying to understand the climate (which no doubt 4657 future climate change
What reflects delay in making the correct microbiological diagnosis?
delav in making the correct microbiological diagnosis is reflected by the increasing use of antibacterial antibiotics prior to hospital presentation in 3 out of 5 fimgal cases and 6 out of 6 acanthamoeba cases
Excluding Acanthamoeba infections, corticosteroids had been used in what percentage of patients prior to referral?
corticosteroids had been used in 12% ofpatients overall prior to referral except for those with acanthamoeba infection
Which drugs were some isolates found resistant to?
one isolate of staph. aureus was resistant to ofloxacin and tobramycin while 3 isolates were resistant to chloramphenicol
the association of injury, previous use of corticosteroids and antibiotics is given in table 2. delav in making the correct microbiological diagnosis is reflected by the increasing use of antibacterial antibiotics prior to hospital presentation in 3 out of 5 fimgal cases and 6 out of 6 acanthamoeba cases. corticosteroids had been used in 12% ofpatients overall prior to referral except for those with acanthamoeba infection. antibiotic susceptibility of the bacterial pathogens is given in table 3. one isolate of staph. aureus was resistant to ofloxacin and tobramycin while 3 isolates were resistant to chloramphenicol. the streptococci remained sensitive to penicillin, chloramphenicol and ofloxacin but not to tetracycline. all 29 isolates of ps. aeruginosa were found sensitive to ceftazidime, ofloxacin and tobramycin in contrast to other gram-negative rods which were less susceptible to ceftazidime (54%) and chloramphenicol (62%). of the commonly used ophthalmic preparations, tobramycin and ofloxacin were the most active in vitro.
How many regions can Europe be subdivided into, as geographically reflected by the turnover component?
the turnover component geographically reflects that europe can be subdivided into six regions
What predicted the strong continental-scale turnover?
there is strong continental-scale turnover, especially in north-south direction, as predicted from the strong latitudinal climate gradient
What has also been identified as the main driver of mammal beta diversity across the New World?
topographic heterogeneity has also been identified as the main driver of mammal beta diversity across the new world
the present study provides the first comprehensive analysis of beta diversity patterns in the european mammal fauna and the first multiscale deconstruction of beta diversity into its turnover and nestedness components. mammal beta diversity across the whole of europe mainly reflects species turnover, with only a small contribution from nestedness. the turnover component geographically reflects that europe can be subdivided into six regions, each with a suite of characteristic species, namely northern europe, western and central europe, and eastern europe plus the three mediterranean regions, the iberian, italian, and balkan peninsulas. while there are minor differences, these clusters are broadly consistent with those identified by heikinheimo et al. 2007 despite the different clustering approaches used in that study. our results provide some support for all four hypothesized drivers, suggesting that beta diversity of mammals in europe may be a product of their joint effects. current climate clearly constitutes an important driver of mammal beta diversity in europe. there is strong continental-scale turnover, especially in north-south direction, as predicted from the strong latitudinal climate gradient; and, more directly, climate was a strong correlate of species composition. similarly, european mammal species distributions have recently been found to be well explained by current climate (dormann et al. 2010). large-scale beta diversity patterns have also been linked to climate for other organism groups and areas (e.g., buckley jetz 2008), including mammals in north america (qian, badgley fox 2009). furthermore, our results indicate an important role for climate at smaller scales; the strongest correlate of species turnover within the 250 000-km2regions is topographic heterogeneity, itself strongly correlated with within-region climatic variation. again, topographic heterogeneity has also been identified as the main driver of mammal beta diversity across the new world at a similar scale (neighbouring 1  grid cells; melo, rangel diniz-filho 2009). the results for nestedness were more equivocal. while there is a small purely environmental component, dissimilarity because of nestedness does not increase with distance in deconstructing mammal beta diversity 397
What studies contributed significantly to improving our understanding of interactions between climate change?
adaptation studies completed
What have potential impacts on ecosystems?
climate change
What kind of study tend to be characterized by results with a high degree of uncertainty?
studies based primarily on the output of climate models
most climate change impacts and adaptation studies completed to date have used, as a starting point, scenarios of future climate, from which potential impacts on ecosystems and human activities are identified and adaptation options assessed. for example, several of the studies cited in this report used a scenario of doubled concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide as the basis for assessing potential impacts. although such studies have yielded useful insights and contributed significantly to improving our understanding of interactions between climate change, ecosystems and human systems, several limitations of this approach have become apparent, particularly if the goal of such studies is to assist in adaptation decision making. for instance, studies based primarily on the output of climate models tend to be characterized by results with a high degree of uncertainty and large ranges, making it difficult to estimate levels of risk.(15)in addition, the complexity of the climate, ecological, social and economic systems that researchers are
What are the three forcings?
the three forcings (i.e. temperature, moisture and organic carbon input
Why was point 1 chosen?
point 1, in siberia, was chosen because this region showed a net increase in soil carbon during the model experiments
What does Figure 7 show?
figure 7 shows the soil carbon evolution for three cases: (a) all forcings changing (i.e. the original experiment), (b) temperature changing as before but with all other forcings held constant, and (c) organic carbon inputs changing but other forcings held constant
the response of each model to the three forcings (i.e. temperature, moisture and organic carbon input) was investigated at four points that were representative of regions characterized by differing soil carbon behaviour (see table 1). the off-line experiments were repeated but allowing only one of the forcings to change at a time with the other forcings held constant at their initial values. hence, we separate the direct effects of temperature and soil moisture on heterotrophic respiration from indirect affects via changes in vegetation productivity. point 1, in siberia, was chosen because this region showed a net increase in soil carbon during the model experiments. figure 7 shows the soil carbon evolution for three cases: (a) all forcings changing (i.e. the original experiment), (b) temperature changing as before but with all other forcings held constant, and (c) organic carbon inputs changing but other forcings held constant. the large increase in carbon input at this point
What does Figure 1 illustrates ?
figure 1 illustrates how the underlying discussions about the climate problem have been isolated from, and yet are essential to, the incorporation of distributive justice in policy proposals
What did these conclusions suggest?
these conclusions suggest that our vision of distributive justice in climate policy is unjustifiably narrow
What is the smallest cartegory?
the final and smallest category, compensatory justice for the costs of climate policy and liability for climate impacts envisions the most extreme resource redistribution and is the only category that takes compensation seriously for distributive justice
due to variation within the second category, fair distribution of both costs of policy and impacts of climate change, potential results are more difficult to predict. in general these policies range from those focused on human development to those that echo the policies in the previous category but have added means of incorporating human development into cost calculations. policies with a strong human development aspect may be more likely to include mechanisms to protect the most vulnerable and resource redistribution less closely tied to technological exchange for mitigation. they also could result in more expensive policies and risk protecting future generations at the cost of the current one. the extent of this category suggests considerable interest in finding a middle ground between human development and technical cost-effective mitigation. there is a natural tendency to leverage existing development programmes to support human development needs in this category of policy. this would also have significant distributive justice impacts, necessitating further analyses of policies in this category. the final and smallest category, compensatory justice for the costs of climate policy and liability for climate impacts envisions the most extreme resource redistribution and is the only category that takes compensation seriously for distributive justice. under this framework, it is likely that developing countries would receive substantial resources beyond the transfer of technology. at this time, however, these policies could be the most costly financially and politically, as debate about measuring historical causation, costs and benefits is likely. such debate carries costs of time and energy, which should not be ignored. these conclusions suggest that our vision of distributive justice in climate policy is unjustifiably narrow. figure 1 illustrates how the underlying discussions about the climate problem have been isolated from, and yet are essential to, the incorporation of distributive justice in policy proposals. at the same time, policy proposals vary in their interpretation of the appropriate mandate for climate policy. the argument for identifying the tendencies of each of these approaches is that it will allow us to more carefully analyse which options present the best fit with the challenge of climate change and the potential implications of these choices and assumptions. we may never reach consensus on the elusive dimensions of distributive justice in the climate context, but recognizing its multiple interpretations and the varied perceptions of the burden to be shared may be an important first step.
What does Landscape 2013 highlights?
landscape 2013 highlights ways in which governments can make real progress in scaling up low-carbon, climate-resilient investment
Which is the gap growing year on year?
with the global climate financing gap growing year on year, landscape 2013 highlights ways in which governments can make real progress in scaling up low-carbon, climate-resilient investment
What does remain committed to improving the understanding and transparency of today's climate finance landscape?
cpi remains committed to improving the understanding and transparency of today's climate finance landscape in support of these efforts
with the global climate financing gap growing year on year, landscape 2013 highlights ways in which governments can make real progress in scaling up low-carbon, climate-resilient investment. there is a unique opportunity now to: 1. develop well-articulated domestic enabling environments, to stimulate global investment flows. 2. recognize that private actors prefer familiar policy environments where the perception of risk is lower. 3. continue to invest in, and ensure effective use of, international public resources, which play a critical role in facilitating low-carbon and climate resilient investments, particularly in developing countries. 4. encourage demand for and assess the effectiveness of financing instruments offered by domestic and international public intermediaries such as multilateral, bilateral, and national finance institutions. 5. address risk at scale, including through the provision of new and improved risk instruments. 6. close important knowledge gaps that continue to impede our ability to track or evaluate climate finance flows. such actions could revive efforts to scale up climate finance, mobilize more private investment in climaterelated activities, and help mainstream the financing of green and low-emissions development. cpi remains committed to improving the understanding and transparency of today's climate finance landscape in support of these efforts.
Which types of emissions should be treated differently?
they argued, first, that there should be a moral difference between those emissions associated with 'survival' (e.g. for basic food and warmth) and 'luxury' emissions (e.g. for large cars
The use of which type of data was criticized?
they criticised the use of snapshot baseline data from 1987
Why do historical emissions have contemporary relevance?
historical emissions have contemporary relevance because of the lag effects of long residence times in the atmosphere whereby current emissions contribute to future warming (and past emissions to the warming now being observed
they argued, first, that there should be a moral difference between those emissions associated with 'survival' (e.g. for basic food and warmth) and 'luxury' emissions (e.g. for large cars). they criticised the use of snapshot baseline data from 1987 which led, for example, to an overestimation of brazil's emissions because of unusually severe fires in amazonia. and they attacked the idea that sinks should be allocated based on emissions, arguing that all had an equal right to this global commons and that the ability of the biosphere to absorb emissions should be allocated on an equal and per capita basis, that is to countries based on their population. converting their proposal to rankings produced a dramatic shift in blame with china (32) and india (0.7) ranking much lower and the us (1532) ranking higher. other commentators argued that emission reductions should be according to historical responsibility (putting greater liability on europe and north america and diminishing the role of developing countries) or should take account of the efficiency of energy and forest use through the use of indicators such as carbon or energy intensity. historical emissions have contemporary relevance because of the lag effects of long residence times in the atmosphere whereby current emissions contribute to future warming (and past emissions to the warming now being observed). as is the case with most indicators derived at the national level, measures of greenhouse gas responsibility hide enormous inequalities in consumption within countries and are often reliant
What is required in wastewater treatment?
bod removal efficiency required in the wastewater treatment
Which model is used to calculate the allowable BOD load?
the streeter-phelps model still permits the calculation of the maximum allowable bod load of the sewage, which will lead to the critical do concentration being equal to the minimum permitted by the legislation
What's the most economically sound situation regarding DO concentration?
the most economic situation is usually that in which the minimum do concentration is only marginally higher than the minimum permitted by legislation
k2 l0. ek<s116>1. t<s116>c (3.26) cc cs - dc (3.27) f) bod removal efficiency required in the wastewater treatment the streeter-phelps model still permits the calculation of the maximum allowable bod load of the sewage, which will lead to the critical do concentration being equal to the minimum permitted by the legislation. such procedure involves some iterations because, for each alteration of the maximum permissible load, there is a modification of the critical time. however, in a real situation, with more than one discharge point, this approach becomes not very practical. what is usually done its to consider bod removal efficiencies which are compatible with the existing or available wastewater treatment processes, and to recalculate the do profile for each new condition. the most economic situation is usually that in which the minimum do concentration is only marginally higher than the minimum permitted by legislation
Can the material be distributed to not for profit educational institutions?
the material may be distributed to other not-for-profit educational institutions for their own use
Where do you get an online guide?
for an online version of this guide, visit cred.columbia.edu/guide
Does use need consent of Columbia University?
any other distribution or use is expressly prohibited without prior written consent of columbia university. citation: center for research on environmental decisions. (2009). t
the earth institute, columbia climate center, the harmony institute, the leonard and jayne abess center for ecosystem science and policy, rosenstiel school of marine and atmospheric science, university of miami, and national geographic society. this guide was made possible by the generous support of: the charles evans hughes memorial foundation national science foundation ses-0345840 copyright (c) october 2009 by the trustees of columbia university in the city of new york the psychology of climate change communication was created by the center for research on environmental decisions (cred) at columbia university. this document was made possible through the generous support of the charles evans hughes memorial foundation and the national science foundation cooperative agreement ses-0345840. this material is protected by copyright. you may download and print one copy for your own reference or research purposes. the material may be distributed to other not-for-profit educational institutions for their own use, as long as this notice is kept intact and attached to the material. any other distribution or use is expressly prohibited without prior written consent of columbia university. citation: center for research on environmental decisions. (2009). the psychology of climate change communication: a guide for scientists, journalists, educators, political aides, and the interested public new york. for an online version of this guide, visit cred.columbia.edu/guide
What is the new and strong evidence about?
there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
What the detection and attribution studies consistently find?
detection and attribution studies consistently find evidence for an anthropogenic signal in the climate record of the last 35 to 50 years
What the new studies do not account for?
these studies include uncertainties in forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and natural factors (volcanoes and solar irradiance), but do not account for the effects of other types of anthropogenic aerosols and land-use changes
there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. detection and attribution studies consistently find evidence for an anthropogenic signal in the climate record of the last 35 to 50 years. these studies include uncertainties in forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and natural factors (volcanoes and solar irradiance), but do not account for the effects of other types of anthropogenic aerosols and land-use changes. the sulfate and natural forcings are negative over this period and cannot explain the warming; whereas most of these studies find that, over the last 50 years, the estimated rate and magnitude of warming due to increasing greenhouse gases alone
Who are the most afected by the climate change?
climate change unjustly impacts the poorest and most marginalized groups of society who have contributed minimally to global emissions, but are among the most affected
How the plans for climate change adaptation can affect the marginalized community?
as more cities begin to plan for climate change adaptation, the outcomes of these interventions need to enhance marginalized communities' access to the services, infrastructure, and livelihoods required to sustain their wellbeing and potential for improvement, rather than exacerbating their vulnerability
How is possible to includ marginalized community in the climate change plans?
many initiatives came to recognize the importance of promoting procedural justice by including residents, nongovernmental organizations, and other civil society actors in adaptation planning processes
climate change unjustly impacts the poorest and most marginalized groups of society who have contributed minimally to global emissions, but are among the most affected1,2. early research and policies on this issue in urban areas sought to catalyze adaptation action by identifying the conditions enabling cities to undertake risk and vulnerability assessments, draft adaptation plans, and evaluate implementation options3,4. many initiatives came to recognize the importance of promoting procedural justice by including residents, nongovernmental organizations, and other civil society actors in adaptation planning processes5. as more cities begin to plan for climate change adaptation, the outcomes of these interventions need to enhance marginalized communities' access to the services, infrastructure, and livelihoods required to sustain their wellbeing and potential for improvement, rather than exacerbating their vulnerability.
Who designed, analyzed and wrote the article?
jennifer marlon
Did you help with study design, data analysis and interpretation, and editing?
patrick j. bartlein
Helped to design the study, provided data on carbon, pollen, with data interpretation, and edited the manuscript?
cathy whitlock
jennifer marlon designed the study, analysed the data, and wrote the paper. patrick j. bartlein assisted with study design, data analysis and interpretation, and editing. cathy whitlock helped design the study, provided charcoal and pollen data and assistance with data interpretation, and edited the manuscript. andrea brunelle, mitch power, colin long, jerry mohr, christy briles, sarah millspaugh, marc worona and rosemary sheriff contributed charcoal and pollen data. sarah shafer and patrick bartlein provided climate data. we appreciate the constructive comments of willy tinner and dan gavin, which greatly improved this paper. support for this research was provided by us national science foundation grant atm0117160 to c. whitlock and p. bartlein.
What can the model solution be nudged toward?
either gridded analyses (analysis nudging) or individual observations (observational nudging) during the period of time surrounding the observations
What is the analysis-nudging term for a given variable proportional to?
the difference between the model simulation and fnl analysis calculated at every grid point within the model domain
Different from the nudging method used by von Storch et al. [2000], how is the nudging method in this paper formulated?
in the 3-d spatial domain instead of the spectral domain
seaman 1990]. the model solution can be nudged toward either gridded analyses (analysis nudging) or individual observations (observational nudging) during the period of time surrounding the observations. here we apply analysis nudging to the downscaling simulations to investigate the effect of assimilating the large-scale driving fields throughout the integration. the analysis-nudging term for a given variable is proportional to the difference between the model simulation and fnl analysis calculated at every grid point within the model domain. different from the nudging method used by von storch et al. [2000], the nudging method in this paper is formulated in the 3-d spatial domain instead of the spectral domain. in wrf, the predictive equation of variable a x t mass weighted by pressure p is written as
Who spoke of comparative judgement?
dryzek, 2005
How many avenues are spoken of in the analysis?
the analysis opens up two further important avenues
Who spoke of the impacts of coverage on public perceptions?
corbett and durfee, 2004; smith, 2005
the analysis opens up two further important avenues. the first, depending on whether one views discourses as impenetrable, is an assessment of the validity of the different discourses surrounding climate change and development, which can only be undertaken with an understanding of their differing components. comparative judgement is possible based upon the assumptions that each relies on and the research and authorities that each legitimises, aided by the highlighting of failings from criticism between discourses (following dryzek, 2005). secondly, the analysis offers potential for a detailed assessment of the impacts of coverage on public perceptions (see corbett and durfee, 2004; smith, 2005 for earlier work regarding climate change), a key research stream for understanding how policy and public support for policy can be influenced through the media.
Define region predicted?
this species was selected as it is currently found within a region predicted to be lost to the fynbos biome, and it suffers range dislocation under the hadcm2n climate scenario. species level data were supplied by the protea atlas database (rebelo, 1995
Explain database consists?
this database consists of georeferenced species presence and population size data for more than 210 000 sample records at more than 40 000 sample plots in the southern and western cape of south africa
Define bioclimatic envelopes?
for the purposes of this study, only species presence data were needed to construct the bioclimatic envelopes. results here are all expressed at the 1
(proteaceae) would be subject to climate change-induced extinction within the next decade. this species was selected as it is currently found within a region predicted to be lost to the fynbos biome, and it suffers range dislocation under the hadcm2n climate scenario. species level data were supplied by the protea atlas database (rebelo, 1995). this database consists of georeferenced species presence and population size data for more than 210 000 sample records at more than 40 000 sample plots in the southern and western cape of south africa. for the purposes of this study, only species presence data were needed to construct the bioclimatic envelopes. results here are all expressed at the 1
What is Lv?
lv volumetric organic loading rate
What is V?
v total volume of the filter or volume occupied by the packing medium
What is Q?
q average influent flowrate
v (27.5) where: lv volumetric organic loading rate (kgbod m3* d or kgcod m3* d) q average influent flowrate (m3/ d) s0 influent bod or cod concentration (kgbod m3or kgcod m3) v total volume of the filter or volume occupied by the packing medium (m3) while anaerobic filters have been designed to support organic loads of up to 16 kgcod m3* d (considering the total volume), the operational loads do not usually exceed 12 kgcod m3* d, except when the wastewater presents concentrations higher than 12,000 mgcod l. this implies the existence of a concentration above which filters are designed based on the organic loading criterion, and below which the design is based on the hydraulic loading criterion. for the treatment of domestic 736 anaerobic reactors
What does leakage in agriculture add up to in terms of percentage?
leakage in agriculture as a whole sums to 25%, and it is highest for livestock (35
What do crop and forestry sectors in US deliver?
crop and forestry sectors in the united states deliver signi fi cantly more abatement than the other annex i regions (fig. 1
What does Scenario A show in relation to the regional breakdown of emission changes?
the regional breakdown of emission changes in scenario a shows comparatively large livestock abatement in the united states, european union 27, and oceania si appendix table s10 b when only annex i emissions are regulated
about 1 gtco2eq is abated annually in land use sectors in this scenario. leakage in agriculture as a whole sums to 25%, and it is highest for livestock (35%) (fig. 1, positive black bars).{moreover, an expansion of agricultural land in nonannex i countries causes some increased emissions from deforestation (fig. 1, positive light gray bars). if these emissions are also attributed to agriculture, then the leakage of annex i agricultural abatement increases from 25% to 55%. the regional breakdown of emission changes in scenario a shows comparatively large livestock abatement in the united states, european union 27, and oceania si appendix table s10 b when only annex i emissions are regulated. crop and forestry sectors in the united states deliver signi fi cantly more abatement than the other annex i regions (fig. 1). agricultural emissions leakage is apparent in all non-annex i regions, particularly in the livestock sectors of china and latin america; these areas are increasingly integrated into the global economy and share relatively close trade relations with europe, australia, new zealand, and north america.
What is the urge in all the recomendations ?
all of the recommendations for reserve selection share is an urge to protect more land rapidly (rank 5
What creating more new reservers might be ?
creating more new reserves might be feasible in some settings but must be guided by targeted, well-informed strategies likely to maximize effectiveness in the face of climate change
Wich climate changes strategies can be used in most areas ?
in most areas, action in lands outside of reserves must also be a part of climate change strategies for biodiversity conservation franklin et al., 1992; lovejoy, 2005 
what all of the recommendations for reserve selection share is an urge to protect more land rapidly (rank 5). this push will certainly help buffer biodiversity against climate change as well as other threats. however, climate change is likely to exacerbate existing tensions and tradeoffs between protecting areas and meeting basic human needs. creating more new reserves might be feasible in some settings but must be guided by targeted, well-informed strategies likely to maximize effectiveness in the face of climate change. in most areas, action in lands outside of reserves must also be a part of climate change strategies for biodiversity conservation franklin et al., 1992; lovejoy, 2005 ).
What is the view of environmental sociology on climate change?
the position that nature influences society and society influences nature
What is the mainstream view of sociology?
the reduction of nature to the status of simply being a raw material (natural resource
an important strength of the environmental sociology literature on climate change is that it takes seriously the position that nature influences society and society influences nature. in this, it presents a valuable direction for environmental sociology in general. furthermore, it breaks away from the reduction of nature to the status of simply being a raw material (natural resource), which, unfortunately, is quite common in the mainstream sociological literature.11environmental-sociological research on climate change includes an understanding of the dynamic relationship between nature and society (where changes in each realm influence changes in the other) and the identification of the social processes that contribute to climate change. there are many important examples of sociological contributions to our understanding of human influence on the global climate. rosa presents how human societies have an intimate interdependency with their ecological contexts and how alterations of natural processes can present grave consequences for the future sustainability of society.12rudel analyzes the social forces that drive deforestation and the role deforestation plays in the accumulation of co2 in the atmosphere.13york, rosa, and dietz analyze how demographic and economic factors influence national rates of co2 emissions, revealing the drivers of global climate change.14simply stated, nature is taken seriously in this literature. theorists from the world-systems perspective have made several important contributions to the literature on global climate change. by studying the position of countries in a global stratification system, they are able to reveal how economic inequalities and co2 emissions are related.nationswithinthecorearetheprimarypolluters,giventheirscale of production and consumption and influence on the global economy.
By how much is urban population projected to increase from 2005 to 2030?
the urban population in developing countries is projected to increase from 2*3 billion in 2005 to 4 billion by 2030
How many more people are estimated to be affected by malaria by 2080?
lindsay and martens37 have used models and scenarios to estimate that 260-320 million more people will be aff ected by malaria by 2080 as a consequence of new transmission zones
In Kenya, what meteorological factor has the largest effect on malaria incidence?
in kenya, meteorological factors were associated with malaria incidence, with temperature having the largest eff ect
furthermore, the urban population in developing countries is projected to increase from 2*3 billion in 2005 to 4 billion by 2030, which is compounded by expanding urban sprawl and poor housing.35 this change will inevitably increase the risk of heatwaves and heatstrokes in cities in developing countries as a result of the so-called heat island eff ect. rising temperatures will also aff ect the spread and transmission rates of vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases. temperature aff ects rate of pathogen maturation and replication within mosquitoes, the density of insects in a particular area, and increases the likelihood of infection. therefore, some populations who have little or no immunity to new infections might be at increased risk. vector reproduction, parasite development cycle, and bite frequency generally rise with temperature; therefore, malaria, tick-borne encephalitis, and dengue fever will become increasingly widespread. in some cases, extreme events, such as heavy rains, will wash away eggs and larvae and decrease vector populations. mosquitoes responsible for malaria will grow, by accessing warm high altitudes, in places once free of the disease.36 lindsay and martens37 have used models and scenarios to estimate that 260-320 million more people will be aff ected by malaria by 2080 as a consequence of new transmission zones. other studies provide similar estimates.38,39 pascual and colleagues40 modelled the population dynamics of mosquitoes in relation to warming in east african highlands. they found that mosquito abundance is amplifi ed with warming, with an over ten-fold increase with every unit increase (0*1degc) in temperature. in kenya, meteorological factors were associated with malaria incidence, with temperature having the largest eff ect.41 this fi nding suggests that temperature rises will increase malaria cases. reiter and colleagues42 have cautioned against attributing malaria dynamics to climate change and point to the uncertainties of predicting malaria epidemics nationally and locally.
What are some characteristics of plug-flow reactors?
plug-flow reactors are also subject to a high oxygen demand close to the pond inlet, as a result of the arrival of raw wastewater, without dilution, in the body of the reactor
How do you estimate BOD concentration?
with the value of t, the effluent bod concentration is estimated (see section 13.6
How is the hydraulic regime of the plug-flow most efficient?
as discussed in section 13.6.1, the hydraulic regime of plug-flow is the most efficient in terms of the removal of constituents that follow first-order kinetics, such as the organic matter and coliforms
adopt a value for the depth h, according to the criteria of item b having h and a, the volume v is calculated (v a.h) and, in consequence, the detention time t (t v q). with the value of t, the effluent bod concentration is estimated (see section 13.6). if the effluent concentration does not satisfy the requirements, the volume, or the detention time, should be increased. the second approach is more practical, because it adopts objective values for the surface area and depth. example 13.3 shows the joint interpretation of these two criteria. d) geometry of the pond (length breadth ratio) as discussed in section 13.6.1, the hydraulic regime of plug-flow is the most efficient in terms of the removal of constituents that follow first-order kinetics, such as the organic matter and coliforms. however, the complete-mix regime is more suitable when the wastewater is subject to highly variable loads and the presence of toxic compounds, due to the fact that complete-mix reactors provide an immediate dilution of the influent in the liquid mass (see chapter 8 for further details). plug-flow reactors are also subject to a high oxygen demand close to the pond inlet, as a result of the arrival of raw wastewater, without dilution, in the body of the reactor. anaerobic conditions can occur as a consequence of the localised organic overload (high organic loading rate in the inlet portion of the pond). for this reason, the following statements can be made:
How river flow can be calculated?
grivet calculates river flow using the runoff obtained by each aogcm
Where river flow can be increased?
the river flow increases in high latitudes, southern to eastern asia, and central africa
Where river flow can be decreased?
decreases in the mediterranean region, southern africa, southern north america, and central america. although the spatial distribution of the change of the river flow is similar to that of runoff, it should be emphasized that the change of runoff in the upstream region affects the river flow in the downstream region
grivet calculates river flow using the runoff obtained by each aogcm. figure 8 illustrates the simulated annual mean river flow for the present by the wem and river flow change in the future relative to the present. the river flow increases in high latitudes, southern to eastern asia, and central africa. in contrast, it decreases in the mediterranean region, southern africa, southern north america, and central america. although the spatial distribution of the change of the river flow is similar to that of runoff, it should be emphasized that the change of runoff in the upstream region affects the river flow in the downstream region. for example, the runoff at the river outlet of the euphrates (30degn, 50dege) increases in the future although the river flow decreases more than 20%.
Which changes appear to be synchronous with those in Greenland?
however, as time has gone by, changes elsewhere in the global tropics and northern hemisphere have come to light and these changes appear to be synchronous with those in greenland
When was this first evidence shown?
the first evidence was from proxies for sea surface temperature (sst) preserved in ocean bottom sediment cores
were abrupt climate change limited to greenland it would not pose too much of a challenge to our understanding of the general circulation. it would be easy to imagine some alteration of the circulation, and movement of heat by stationary and transient eddies, that could accomplish the observed effects. however, as time has gone by, changes elsewhere in the global tropics and northern hemisphere have come to light and these changes appear to be synchronous with those in greenland. the first evidence was from proxies for sea surface temperature (sst) preserved in ocean bottom sediment cores. bond et al. (1993) claimed that when greenland was cold the subpolar north atlantic ssts were also cold, although low sedimentation rates made the time resolution of the core too imprecise for easy cross comparison with the greenland record. sachs and lehman (1999) presented records from the bermuda rise, a region of high sedimentation that allows for good temporal resolution. the agreement between the d18o proxy for sst and the greenland record through numerous abrupt climate changes during the last glacial is startling (figure 2): whenever greenland is cold, the subtropical north atlantic ocean is cold too. while it is true that this conclusion partly depends on the fact that the age control on the bermuda record was fitted in order to maximize the correspondence between the two records, the fact that it is possible to get such a high correspondence testifies to a real link between climate changes in these two locations. lea et al. (2003) used mg/ca ratios to reconstruct ssts above the cariaco basin, a region of annually laminated sediments north of venezuela, during the last deglaciation. they found an abrupt warming at the bolling/allerod transition, an abrupt cooling of as much as 4*c at the beginning of the younger dryas and an abrupt warming at its termination. this result is consistent with sachs and lehman and bond and indicates that the entire north atlantic surface ocean cooled dramtically during greenland stadials. paleo.circ february 28, 2005
What has recently blossomed into a growth industry?
estimating the costs of adaptation has recently blossomed into a growth industry
What seems to be the emerging consensus?
the emerging consensus seems to be that adaptation costs are likely to be in the order of tens of billions of dollars per annum within a few years, and that the reliability of these estimates is low
What do the essays address?
the essays address insurance and risk sharing, environmental markets and pricing, and public-private partnerships
estimating the costs of adaptation has recently blossomed into a growth industry. cost estimate studies are proliferating at a national level, by sectors and in global aggregate terms. the emerging consensus seems to be that adaptation costs are likely to be in the order of tens of billions of dollars per annum within a few years, and that the reliability of these estimates is low. there are urgent questions around these estimates. how much climate resilience is built into the assumptions? what baseline of current costs is calculated or assumed? what level of risk reduction is provided for? and so on. in three short chapters, written by ten authors and edited by two of them, this slim volume moves beyond cost estimation to the potential and limits of economic and policy instruments. the bottom-line question is: what can best be done to motivate and facilitate adaptation actions? the essays address insurance and risk sharing, environmental markets and pricing, and public-private partnerships. chapter 1 places the issue of adaptation costs into a broader economic and policy context. chapter 2 provides a good critical review of many of the actual estimates that have been made, and chapter 3 describes a number of economic and policy instruments to promote adaptation. the book is an excellent primer for those seeking to assess the use-value of cost estimates for adaptation, in helping to inform global negotiations under the unfccc and for the donor and developing countries that are seeking ways to 'mainstream' climate change adaptation into development strategies, policies and measures. it is not a how-to-do-it book. rather, it is a provocative and challenging exercise in raising questions to which there are, for the moment, no satisfactory answers; nor does it offer any immediate prospect of finding robust answers. the book's greatest value to this reviewer is that it engenders serious reflection on whether the right questions are being asked at all. adaptation runs a whole gamut of approaches from placeand project-specific, through sectoral policies and measures, to grand national strategies. for example, in bangladesh, one might ask about the costs and benefits of adaptation in a single coastal-zone defence project against sea-level rise and enhanced cyclonic storm intensity. at the next level one might ask what the costs would be of providing an 'adequate' or 'acceptable' level of protection of rice cultivation in large regions subject to droughts, floods or increased salinity. on a larger scale one should also probably ask (although the question is itself unwelcome) what the economic cost implications might be of abandoning the palliative in-situ adaptation that is currently favoured in the lowest-lying and most exposed delta lands, in favour of what seems to be the inevitable relocation sooner or later of millions - perhaps tens of millions - of coastal zone dwellers. the legitimate economic dimensions of these sorts of questions need to be addressed. but what purpose is served by lumping them all together under the rubric of 'the costs or the economics of adaptation'? surely the concept of adaptation as it is currently being used is far too vague and all-encompassing to try to address in a holistic way. you might as well ask, what is the cost of sustainable development?
The is the C2 circle born?
the circle c2 is born at supercritical hopf bifurcations belonging to curve h2
What is the effect of a decrease in G?
as g decreases, a loses stability through a supercritical hopf bifurcation, at a point p1[?] h2
How is the curve obtained?
the curve is obtained by numerical continuation, starting from the attractor a and letting g decrease
the circle c2 is born at supercritical hopf bifurcations belonging to curve h2. to fix ideas, consider figure 1( e ). the fixed point on the right g large) is the attractor a as g decreases, a loses stability through a supercritical hopf bifurcation, at a point p1[?] h2. this is illustrated in figure 19( a ), where we plotted modulus and real part of the complex conjugate eigenvalues u1 and u2 of d p along a curve of fixed points. the curve is obtained by numerical continuation, starting from the attractor a and letting g decrease. the hopf bifurcation p1
What are the changes induced by warming?
warming-induced changes in lake thermal and mixing regimes present risks to water quality and ecosystem services provided by u.s. lakes and reservoirs
Define  Modulation of responses?
modulation of responses by different physical and hydroclimatic settings are not well understood. we explore the potential effects of climate change on 27 lake " archetypes " representative of a range of lakes and reservoirs occurring throughout the u.s
Mention about Archetypes ?
archetypes are based on different combinations of depth, surface area, and water clarity
warming-induced changes in lake thermal and mixing regimes present risks to water quality and ecosystem services provided by u.s. lakes and reservoirs. modulation of responses by different physical and hydroclimatic settings are not well understood. we explore the potential effects of climate change on 27 lake " archetypes " representative of a range of lakes and reservoirs occurring throughout the u.s. archetypes are based on different combinations of depth, surface area, and water clarity. lisss, a one-dimensional dynamic thermal simulation model, is applied to assess lake response to multiple mid-21st century change scenarios applied to nine baseline climate series from different hydroclimatic regions of the u.s. results show surface water temperature increases of about 77 of increase in average air temperature change. bottom temperature changes are less (around 30 %) for deep lakes and in regions that maintain mid-winter air temperatures below freezing. significant decreases in length of ice cover are projected, and the extent and strength of stratification will increase throughout the u.s., with systematic differences associated with depth, surface area, and clarity. these projected responses suggest a range of future challenges that lake managers are likely to face. changes in thermal and mixing dynamics suggest increased risk of summer
How the many of the interventions that responded to this window of opportunity worked?
second, many of the interventions that responded to this window of opportunity worked ''to minimize short-term political risk by delaying or obscuring cost imposition'' (rabe 2009a 4
What is beyond the scope of this paper?
it is beyond the scope of this paper to articulate the precise mechanics as to how such processes would occur--such an effort would be worthy of its own detailed analysis--but we do note that such results have occurred historically
What can be known from what has been said in the paper?
at a broad level, we know from our above review that policy makers must avoid intervening to address and promote dq2 if it is likely to make expansion difficult
second, many of the interventions that responded to this window of opportunity worked ''to minimize short-term political risk by delaying or obscuring cost imposition'' (rabe 2009a 4). in doing so, they are able to lock in participation and, as we discuss below, ratchet up settings over time. it is important that such interventions do not legitimize low standards or worse yet lock in lower standards. analysts will want to deliberate on whether interventions plausibly account for the political system's tendency to put off difficult and required behavioral choices in a way that the intervention can delay, for a period, required behavioral challenges by first entrenching the intervention and then the standards. it is beyond the scope of this paper to articulate the precise mechanics as to how such processes would occur--such an effort would be worthy of its own detailed analysis--but we do note that such results have occurred historically. below, we reflect on how such efforts might be developed. third, analysts must examine the various points of access where lock-in might occur, rather than assuming that jurisdiction-wide legislation is the best venue. scholarship on lock-in identifies various policy access points from where path-dependent trajectories have emerged, including sub-national jurisdiction, different policy-making units at a given level of government, and different levels or orders of policy. it may be that policy makers avoid anti-majority filibustering in the us senate by focusing on congressional committees that often address highly relevant, though less studied, calibrations and settings. again, rabe's analysis of us climate policy documents many cases where efforts to promote large-scale legislative changes failed, but, a range of smaller scale policies, many at the state level, took advantage of windows of opportunity that appear to have created some degree of stickiness. it is important to note that stickiness, by itself, is unable to address the super wicked problem of climate change. if delaying costs explains support, then whether, when, and how the intervention might be successful depends on what path-dependent processes might also be unleashed. it is, therefore, critical that policy makers also attend to the second and third diagnostic questions discussed below. diagnostic questions 2 and 3 how might a protocol be designed to foster deliberations to entrench (dq2) and expand (dq3) policy interventions? at a broad level, we know from our above review that policy makers must avoid intervening to address and promote dq2 if it is likely to make expansion difficult. more specifically, our review directs analysts to pay greater attention to the role of coalitions and values, deeply held views about right and wrong by segments of society, or policy norms that define and regulate appropriate behavior in particular circumstances. both are initially outcomes of interventions (they act as ''dependent variables''), but then, reversing causality, they often affect changes in policy settings, entrenchment of initial support, and support from expanding populations. coalitions converting short-term interests to the long term a key theme running through political science and related literature on policy development focuses on the importance of ''winning coalitions'' in which a diverse set of stakeholders come to support the same policy intervention, initially for very different reasons. a key question for our framework is how can support from such coalitions be entrenched and expanded to others? one such coalition, as documented by several scholars (vogel 1995 esty 1994 desombre 2000 ), is a
Describe Heuristic depiction of changing levels
heuristic depiction of changing levels of vulnerability to drought for southern botswana pastoralists over the past 30 years. t1, t2, and t3 refers to wealthy ranchers who raise cattle on private land. t1', t2' and t3' refer to poorer pastoralists on communal land
What did the forecasting scenario based?
however, there is a need for some scenario forecasting based on best available knowledge even though the datasets required to make realistic projections remain many years away across subsaharan africa (thompson and scoones 2009). however, it is important to go through these mathematical steps, using best available estimates, to enable quantification of future scenarios
How it is possible to trace change in livestock?
 it was possible to trace changes in livestock offtake to changes in land ownership at a local village or ranch scale, and to assess existing relations between rainfall trends and offtake for different management types and ecological changes through time. we used this mix of expert insight and yield analysis to determine if relationships were linear, a sigmoid, or
fig. 3 heuristic depiction of changing levels of vulnerability to drought for southern botswana pastoralists over the past 30 years. t1, t2, and t3 refers to wealthy ranchers who raise cattle on private land. t1', t2' and t3' refer to poorer pastoralists on communal land. withstand the full rigor of academic analysis. however, there is a need for some scenario forecasting based on best available knowledge even though the datasets required to make realistic projections remain many years away across subsaharan africa (thompson and scoones 2009). however, it is important to go through these mathematical steps, using best available estimates, to enable quantification of future scenarios. we used both expert opinion, local stakeholder insights, from the iterations of interviews, and analysis of livestock offtake data obtained at district, village, and ranch scales (reed and dougill 2008; fig. 4) to determine which of the relationships were positive or negative (fig. 2) and their relative strengths for scenario modeling. for example, it was possible to trace changes in livestock offtake to changes in land ownership at a local village or ranch scale, and to assess existing relations between rainfall trends and offtake for different management types and ecological changes through time. we used this mix of expert insight and yield analysis to determine if relationships were linear, a sigmoid, or
What is de-trending?
subtracting the long-term trend from each data point, table 1
What does smoothing do?
smoothing reduces the influence of short-term variability that is not of primary interest
What years did Litzlow Ciannelle and Duvy et al use smoothing?
litzow ciannelli (2007) use a smoother to examine the inter-annual relationships among abundances of predators, prey and physical conditions, and dulvy et al. (2008) use a smoothing filter on their environmental data to capture the integrated influence of the environment on species' distribution over several years
the simplest approach to deal with temporal autocorrelation is to remove autocorrelation by differencing the climate and biological data series (subtract each data point from next data point in the time series, table 1) over the autocorrelation time-scales prior to statistical analysis (pyper peterman, 1998). de-trending (subtracting the long-term trend from each data point, table 1) may also be desirable to remove shared longterm trends because time series commonly trend without a causal link. however, removing trends can reduce the power to detect real relationships (pyper peterman, 1998) and, in some cases, differencing or detrending can increase the autocorrelation in a dataset. for instance, if measurements in a time series are independent, detrending the time series will create a dependency among data points. historically, such data transformations were used to obtain datasets that met the assumptions of the statistical tests available. the advent of modern model-based approaches that accommodate autocorrelation processes provides the opportunity to avoid the shortcomings of data transformations. when the climate - biological relationship is expected to operate over longer time-scales, the data can be smoothed using a filter before conducting statistical tests such as regression. smoothing reduces the influence of short-term variability that is not of primary interest. for instance, litzow ciannelli (2007) use a smoother to examine the inter-annual relationships among abundances of predators, prey and physical conditions, and dulvy et al. (2008) use a smoothing filter on their environmental data to capture the integrated influence of the environment on species' distribution over several years.
Which hypothesis regarding heat-stressed neighborhoods was supported?
our last hypothesis was supported: residents in the most heat-stressed neighborhoods had inferior resources to cope with extreme heat
In this study, what percentage of houses in the upper-income neighborhoods had a backyard swimming pool?
although every second house in the upper-income neighborhoods had a backyard swimming pool
Which area has the highest HTCI value in this study's sample?
the area with the highest htci value is the archetypical poor inner-city neighborhood with nearly three times the population density as the next most densely inhabited neighborhood in our sample
htci table 4 ). social ties, the percentage of homes with central air conditioning, and with private pools were negatively correlated with the heat index. in our sample, 100 percent of the homes in upperincome and newer middle-income neighborhoods as well as the majority of homes in older middle class neighborhoods had central air conditioning. almost all houses in the low-income hispanic neighborhoods were without it table 2 ). although every second house in the upper-income neighborhoods had a backyard swimming pool, most middleincome families and virtually all lower-income families did not. (some people may have installed window refrigeration units or used community pools that were not recorded in the assessor's database.) the correlation with roof reflectivity was in the expected direction but it was not significantly correlated with htci. our last hypothesis was supported: residents in the most heat-stressed neighborhoods had inferior resources to cope with extreme heat. case studies of neighborhood environments and vulnerability to heat the area with the highest htci value is the archetypical poor inner-city neighborhood with nearly three times the population density as the next most densely inhabited neighborhood in our sample. black canyon freeway abuts an interstate highway, and it is noisy, dusty, and crowded. it serves as a landing spot for many new arrivals from mexico, virtually all of whom rent (or reside with family and friends who rent) a wide assortment of apartments in large buildings or detached and semi-detached houses built from the 1920s through the 1980s. the average length of residence in black canyon is about 1.5 years, which may be the reason they have by far the lowest level of social ties z -score  1/4   .64) among the eight neighborhoods. residents have low educational attainment, low income, and many speak only spanish.
During the control period what temperature extremes are strongly underestimated?
for the control period--ctl all simulations strongly underestimate warm extremes (about 10*c) over scandinavia comparing to the gridded observations
Where is a common positive bias found for simulated cold extremes?
a common positive bias for the simulated cold extremes is found over the alps and scandinavian mountains and reaches more than 12*c in individual simulations
Are the geographical patterns found in the study inconsistent?
despite the large deviations among simulations in the ctl period all six simulations show quite consistent geographical patterns of the projected future changes in temperature extremes that differ in magnitude
for the control period--ctl all simulations strongly underestimate warm extremes (about 10*c) over scandinavia comparing to the gridded observations. this negative bias is related to the fact that scandinavia has a large fraction of forest and the observations represent only the open-land temperature while the simulated temperature is individually calculated for forest and open land and then averaged. a part of the underestimation of cold extremes (up to 12*c) over northeastern europe in the rca3(era40) simulation is also related to the open-land issue but errors in the large-scale circulation from the driving global models strongly dominate biases over this region that are of opposite sign among the simulations driven by gcms. a common positive bias for the simulated cold extremes is found over the alps and scandinavian mountains and reaches more than 12*c in individual simulations. in central and southern europe a difference among simulations driven by different gcms for both warm and cold extremes can be of opposite sign and reaches 20*c and more. on the average spatial patterns of the biases in the 20-yr return values follow the corresponding ones in the location parameter of the fitted gev distribution. in addition, the largest absolute deviations from the observations are attributed to the simulations with large biases in the scale parameter that means underor overestimation of interannual variability of temperature extremes. the ensemble mean approach substantially reduces individual biases and is in good agreement with the control rca3(era40) run. despite the large deviations among simulations in the ctl period all six simulations show quite consistent geographical patterns of the projected future changes in temperature extremes that differ in magnitude. the ensemble mean warm extremes intensify over all europe with an increase of about 2-4*c over northern europe and 4-6*c in southern europe while the cold ones becomes up to 12*c warmer in northern europe and 2-6*c warmer in central and southern
Which will impact the land-sea warming ratio?
despite limitations of observational records, model biases are clearly evident, reducing confidence in regional projections. a common problem is excessive summertime drying of soils in continental interiors
What is mean by ITCZ and its abbrevation?
in the tropics, convection and rainfall are organized into east-west elongated bands called the intertropical convergence zone (itcz
Which will affect the rainfall change projections?
the double itcz bias is related to atmosphere-ocean coupling errors and is likely to affect rainfall change projections in the south pacific islands71 and elsewhere
despite limitations of observational records, model biases are clearly evident, reducing confidence in regional projections. a common problem is excessive summertime drying of soils in continental interiors, which may impact the land-sea warming ratio. models simulating excessive summer arctic sea-ice may have too weak polar amplification70. in the tropics, convection and rainfall are organized into east-west elongated bands called the intertropical convergence zone (itcz). a long-standing bias is the so-called 'double' itcz, referring to models' failure to keep the itcz north of the equator over the eastern pacific and atlantic. the double itcz bias is related to atmosphere-ocean coupling errors and is likely to affect rainfall change projections in the south pacific islands71 and elsewhere.
How did the modelled changes in MSLP compare the observed changes?
spatial patterns of modeled changes resembled those observed during recent decades (fig. 5), although the magnitude of the changes was half of those observed
What spatial regions were studied?
reaching into the canadian arctic archipelago and bering sea (fig. 10). there are also smaller increases near the azores
Which century was modelled?
during the modeled twenty-first century
in section 3a, the changes in mslp from 1980 to 2000 were discussed. spatial patterns of modeled changes resembled those observed during recent decades (fig. 5), although the magnitude of the changes was half of those observed. during the modeled twenty-first century, there is a continued decrease in the winter mslp arctic high with a more extensive spatial pattern reaching into the canadian arctic archipelago and bering sea (fig. 10). there are also smaller increases near the azores high in expt1 and expt2, although mostly not statistically significant anomalies. unlike in fig. 5, there is an average decrease in mslp over the bering
What kind of impact has the Dorset-Norse contact had on the population of Greenland and the eastern arctic?
while nearly 300 years of dorset-norse contact in greenland and the eastern arctic remains incompletely understood, it seems to have had fairly limited impacts on either population
What caused the Thule's journey eastward to take so long?
robert mcghee (1984, 2003) has updated his earlier stress upon warm climate and intensive bowhead whale hunting, arguing that a major cause for the thule people's long journey eastwards was in fact an effort to track down the source of the metal and other desirable trade goods that had been trickling westward over the previous centuries. extensive recent archaeological and ethnographic research in
while nearly 300 years of dorset-norse contact in greenland and the eastern arctic remains incompletely understood, it seems to have had fairly limited impacts on either population. certainly neither the norse nor the dorset seem to have signifi cantly expanded their settlement areas after the period of the norse landnam and the probable times of initial norse-dorset contact around 1000- 1100 a.d. this was not the case when the thule people expanded eastwards into arctic canada and greenland, as they replaced both dorset and norse --culturally if not biologically--throughout the region before 1500 a.d. the timing and motivation for the thule expansion is still an area of intense and productive research across the arctic, but a growing consensus sees the thule migration reaching northern greenland around 1200 a.d.(gullov 2004; schledermann and mccullough 2003). robert mcghee (1984, 2003) has updated his earlier stress upon warm climate and intensive bowhead whale hunting, arguing that a major cause for the thule people's long journey eastwards was in fact an effort to track down the source of the metal and other desirable trade goods that had been trickling westward over the previous centuries. extensive recent archaeological and ethnographic research in
What is a central requirement for forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change on sandy beaches?
improve predictive capabilities in the science of beach ecology, inclusive of modelling techniques
What should adaptive responses to climate change ideally incorporate?
environmental outcomes that are ecologically sustainable
What will these ecological outcomes require?
close and open collaboration among scientists, managers and policy makers across different levels of the decision-making process, at local, regional, national and international levels
a central requirement for forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change on sandy beaches is to improve predictive capabilities in the science of beach ecology, inclusive of modelling techniques. adaptive responses to climate change e.g. interventions to combat erosion and beach retreat) should ideally incorporate environmental outcomes that are ecologically sustainable. this will require close and open collaboration among scientists, managers and policy makers across different levels of the decision-making process, at local, regional, national and international levels. despite the inherent uncertainties and the long-term nature of climate-change impacts on sandy beach ecosystems, the results of the workshop provide guide principles on future research needs that will enhance society's efforts to respond to climate change in an ecologically responsible and sustainable way. acknowledgements this paper benefited greatly from the inputs of the participants who took part in the conference workshops and provided a wealth of inputs, ideas and contributions. references
The delta approach we use to add what?
lowor mediumresolution anomalies to high-resolution climate baseline data
What is the first word in the paragraph?
the
we have to rely on a what test?
nonindependent
the delta approach we use to add lowor mediumresolution anomalies to high-resolution climate baseline data is illustrated in fig. 4. for historical data, we use 0.5 8 gridded anomalies, while for future projections the original resolution of the gcms output varies. for example, the canadian model gcm3 has an approximately 300-km resolution (fig. 4a). climatewna uses a standardized 1 8 to import gcm anomalies as comma-separated text files, and further downscales the data to the target resolution with simple bilinear interpolation to avoid step artifacts (fig. 4b). then, the anomalies are added onto the baseline data at the same resolution (fig. 4c) to generate the final surface (fig. 4d). with this approach, the original baseline data (absolute values for 1961-90 normal period) of the historical data and future projections are replaced by scale-free climate data generated by climatewna. to assess the accuracy of the delta approach for historical data, we have to rely on a nonindependent test because the same weather station data that were used for developing the climate baseline data as well as the historical anomalies are used for the evaluation. this
What does considering biomass "renewable" indicate?
that it will in theory stay available in an infinite time perspective as it can regenerate or be grown
What does soil organic matter represent?
soil organic matter represents only a few percent of the total soil mass, but still constitutes a large organic carbon stock on a global scale
What can land-use change lead to?
land-use change can lead to soil organic matter losses
considering biomass, "renewable" indicates that it will in theory stay available in an infinite time perspective as it can regenerate or be grown. however in practice, the renewal of biomass also depends on its management, which should ensure that primary resources are not overexploited or even depleted. if resource management is technically appropriate, environmentally non-degrading,socially favourable and economically viable, then the renewable resource will be exploited in a sustainable4way. the issue of sustainability being crucial in the field of bioenergy,the un executive board for clean development mechanisms released in december 2006 an o ffi cial definition of "renewable biomass" including this sustainability dimension (unfccc, 2006 ). among the five possible conditions where biomass can be defined as "renewable", the three that do not deal with residues or wastes have a first criterion mentioning that the land use shall not change except if land areas are reverted to forest. the second criterion implicitly linked to the first one states: "sustainable management practices are undertaken on these land areas to ensure in particular that the level of carbon stocks on these land areas does not systematically decrease over time". this is a key element when comparing the co2 emissions from biofuels and fossil fuels. indeed, the interesting fundamental carbon neutrality of combusted biomass is based on the fact that the emitted co2 from the plant originates from the atmosphere where it eventually goes back to. if land conversion to biomass production implies additional co2 emission through soil organic carbon losses, it may o ff set this carbon neutrality. highly dependent on the type of vegetation, the organic carbon stock is globally around 1.6 times higher in forest or permanent grassland soils than in crop soils (antoni and arrouays, 2007 ). therefore, land-use change can lead to soil organic matter losses. soil organic carbon content can also decrease in the long term as a consequence of the export of agricultural residues. therefore, it is necessary to assess the net crop residue amount that would remain available for the bioenergy chain without degrading the soil quality in the long term (sa ffi h-hdadi and mary, 2008 gabrielle and gagnaire, 2008 ). soil organic matter represents only a few percent of the total soil mass, but still constitutes a large organic carbon stock on a global scale, i.e. almost the same as the sum of the carbon stocks in the atmosphere and in the vegetation (arrouays et al., 2002 ). small but stable changes in this stock could critically impact the global carbon fluxes. furthermore, soil organic matter plays a crucial role in soil quality. in an agricultural soil, whose main function is to provide nutrients and water to crops, soil organic matter permits the development of microorganisms decomposing organic matter into easy-absorbed mineral forms for the plant. it contributes to the soil cationic exchange capacity, which also influences the availability of essential minerals for the plant, and to the stability of the soil. soil organic matter and forest biodiversity are among the precious resources whose conservation for future generations should not be jeopardised by land-use changes. for the producers, "renewable biomass" will no longer just
How do you investigate the causes leading to the described bias changes?
i consider future changes in potentially relevant climatic variables
Where can we find a spread in winter albedo?
a strong model spread in winter albedo is apparent in the gulf of bottnia, white sea and barents sea
What is figure two showing?
figure 2 shows the standard deviation of changes between 1970 - 1999 and 2070 - 2099 for winter surface albedo
to further investigate the causes leading to the described bias changes, i consider future changes in potentially relevant climatic variables. figure 2 shows the standard deviation of changes between 1970 - 1999 and 2070 - 2099 for winter surface albedo (figure 2a), summer cloud cover (figure 2b), summer soil moisture (figure 2c) and summer sea level pressure (figure 2d). a strong model spread in winter albedo can be observed in the alps (figure 2a), whereas the spread in winter snow cover changes is negligible (not shown). this finding indicates a spread in temperature response due to different changes in the perennial snow fraction. furthermore a strong model spread in winter albedo is apparent in the gulf of bottnia, white sea and barents sea (figure 2a), which exceeds changes in sea ice cover (not shown). in these regions, the spread in temperature response might thus be explained by different sea ice/albedo parameterisations. changes in cloud
What pattern was used as evidence for a reduced intensity of bioturbation and soil transport?
the pattern of glass distribution they took as evidence for a reduced intensity of bioturbation and soil transport under lgm-late glacial grassland and an increased intensity of bioturbation and soil transport after the holocene reforestation
What values are considered "low K"?
a low k value for between 26.5 k cal yr b.p. and about 10 k cal yr b.p. and a much higher k from 10 k cal yr b.p. to present
In landscape grasslands, during what climates were inferred to yield an increased sediment supply?
in this part of the landscape grasslands during glacial climates were inferred to have increased sediment supply, whereas recolonisation of slopes by trees in interglacials reduced it
(ll-1) is the slope gradient. roering et al. (2004) showed that the concentration and distribution of glass downslope was best explained by a history of soil transport characterised by two different k values: a low k value for between 26.5 k cal yr b.p. and about 10 k cal yr b.p. and a much higher k from 10 k cal yr b.p. to present. the pattern of glass distribution they took as evidence for a reduced intensity of bioturbation and soil transport under lgm-late glacial grassland and an increased intensity of bioturbation and soil transport after the holocene reforestation. this finding contrasts with the scenarios advanced by bull (1991) for temporal variation of sediment production in the mountainous drainage basin of the charwell river. in this part of the landscape grasslands during glacial climates were inferred to have increased sediment supply, whereas recolonisation of slopes by trees in interglacials reduced it. it appears that different parts of the landscape respond differently to climatically induced vegetation changes.
How sampled families from each country is divided?
he sampled families from each country were divided into three sensitivity levels using cluster analysis
what sample families are  likely to cluster in the high sensitivity level?
the families of el salvador and guatemala were more likely to cluster in the high sensitivity level
How the  families in the high sensitivity level in each country were characterized?
the families in the high sensitivity level in each country were characterized by high yield variability
the sampled families from each country were divided into three sensitivity levels using cluster analysis; on average 33% of the families fell into the highly sensitive level. the families of el salvador and guatemala were more likely to cluster in the high sensitivity level, while those of nicaragua and mexico were more likely to cluster in the medium sensitivity class. guatemala had the highest percentage of families with high sensitivity (49%) and el salvador the highest percentage with low sensitivity (34%) (table 3). an anova test indicated that there are significant differences (p 0.001) between high, medium and low clusters for the sensitivity indicators for each country. figure 3 shows some indicators that were significantly different in the high sensitivity level compared by cluster for each country. the families in the high sensitivity level in each country were characterized by high yield variability. in el salvador, guatemala and nicaragua this indicator was significantly higher for high sensitivity than for medium or low sensitivity clusters (p 0.001). in contrast, in mexico the indicator was not significantly different (p 0.090) between sensitivity clusters (figure 3). yield variability leads to frequent reductions in income and the ability of the families to respond to external stresses such as climate change. furthermore, in nicaragua, mexico and guatemala the migration indicator was also significantly greater for the high sensitivity cluster in each country (p 0.001). migration, being the temporary or permanent work-related move of one or more family members to a foreign
What are Mu and Md? are the mass flows
where mu and md are the mass fluxes
What are QC and QR? are the rates of condensation heating and radiative cooling
qc and qr are the condensation heating and radiative cooling rates
qr ad, (3) where mu and md are the mass fluxes and au and ad are the corresponding fractional areas. qc and qr are the condensation heating and radiative cooling rates, respectively. in table 9 we summarize the results from the t63 experiments. as can be seen there is a reduction in the tropical mass flux in 21c. we represent here the mass flux by the vertical velocity in m pa s -1as an average for the months july-october. as can be seen from the table there is a general reduction in the tropical mass flux as the change in the heating rates are proportional to the precipitation rates (increasing by some 6%) while the change in static stability is related to the increase in specific humidity (increasing by some 26%). we have not been able to calculate the instantaneous fluxes which we expect to show larger differences (see sugi et al., 2002, their table 3).
Who is published the 'Heart of the Matter' in oil supply industry? Explain
colin campbell gives some insight into the complexity of the forces at play in the industry in his very interesting piece called ' the heart of the matter ' and his many published works offer a fuller outline of the mechanics of the oil supply industry
Write about the oil exploitation shortly?
current estimates of how much oil we have left range from 30 to 40 years, but the nature of oil reserves, exploitation and reporting is very complex
What the  futurologists of the 1970's did?
the futurologists of the 1970s ' oil crisis began to warn us of the ' end of oil ' based on estimates from fairly crude field surveys, the industry has become highly proficient in identifying potential
current estimates of how much oil we have left range from 30 to 40 years, but the nature of oil reserves, exploitation and reporting is very complex. 4 colin campbell gives some insight into the complexity of the forces at play in the industry in his very interesting piece called ' the heart of the matter ' and his many published works offer a fuller outline of the mechanics of the oil supply industry. he has been the founding father of the peak oil movement. 5 since the futurologists of the 1970s ' oil crisis began to warn us of the ' end of oil ' based on estimates from fairly crude field surveys, the industry has become highly proficient in identifying potential
Why would people want to rule out hydropower plants?
rule out large hydropower plants
What steps can we take to manage climate?
climate change can be managed
How can the government implement a plan to combat the harzards the plaque our climate and and environment?
implementation of action plans
an important point from the discussion on adaptation options for glof hazards, which is also relevant for other two issues, is that prioritization was difficult at this early stage. it is likely that several of the options would be implemented in tandem. for example, a risk assessment can only be undertaken once there is the knowledge of the locations and characteristics of the glacial lakes and/or glaciers in the process of developing supra-glacial lakes that may become risky. however, there will be positive feedback between each of the options such that the inventory would influence what the national policy and action plan should be, policies would influence land use planning, and so on. furthermore, the range of options and their individual definitions can be refined, given more time and discussion between stakeholders. implementation of action plans and inventories also depends on the modalities of the institutions involved, and their local capacity in terms of human, physical, and funding resources. the formulation of a national policy and an action plan should involve the adoption of political ownership and recognition by government agencies such as the national planning commission. 8.2 hydropower this group ranked the effectiveness and costs of each option from 1-10, with 1 meaning "most effective" or "least cost", while 11 means "least effective" or "greatest cost". discussion on this issue stressed the importance of recognizing that glof risks should not pose excessive barriers to hydropower developments. planners, donors, and investors should undertake risk assessments and work to understand how glofs and climate change can be managed. some participants were concerned that the idea of climate change and glofs would lead some people to automatically rule out large hydropower plants. one advantage of large hydropower discussed during the consultative workshop is that reservoirs can provide dependable flows for electricity generation, supplement water supplies for domestic and agriculture uses during the dry season, and if properly designed, they may play a role in flood management. these possible benefits must be carefully weighed any against environmental impacts and the enhanced glof risks. thorough risk assessments that closely examine climate-related hazards will provide a more accurate perspective of the costs and/or benefits of small versus large hydropower for a com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 41 41 given site and need. the table above illustrates that, without information on a particular site's vulnerability, the preference is for smaller hydropower projects.
Why was the analysis restricted to high seed plots?
this analysis was restricted to high seed rain plots (100 seeds/plot) because only these plots contained high densities of large saplings (10 saplings per plot
Why was the analysis carried out separately within each of the three predefined shade categories?
to control for the forest-edge shade, the analysis was carried out separately within each of the three predefined shade categories
Why was the arrival of new saplings to the plots with large saplings considered?
arrival of new saplings to the plots with large saplings was considered to be facilitated if small-sapling density there was greater than on plots without large saplings, and inhibited if it was lower
.--average densities of live small (0.2-1 m tall) saplings from recent invasion were compared under different density classes of large (2 m tall) saplings from earlier invasion (0, 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 20 large saplings/plot). this analysis was restricted to high seed rain plots (100 seeds/plot) because only these plots contained high densities of large saplings (10 saplings per plot). to control for the forest-edge shade, the analysis was carried out separately within each of the three predefined shade categories. arrival of new saplings to the plots with large saplings was considered to be facilitated if small-sapling density there was greater than on plots without large saplings, and inhibited if it was lower. these analyses were repeated
What is Thickening process?
thickening is a physical process of concentrating the sludge, with the aim of reducing its water content and, as a result, its volume, facilitating the subsequent sludge treatment stages
What is the objective in Stabilisation process?
stabilisation aims at attenuating the inconveniences associated with the generation of bad odours during processing and disposing of the sludge. this is accomplished through the removal of the biodegradable organic matter of the sludge, what also brings about a reduction in the solids mass in the sludge
What would be an impact during dewatering of the sludge?
the dewatering of the sludge has an important impact in its transport and final disposal costs, besides influencing its subsequent handling, since the mechanical behaviour varies with the water content level
final disposal final destination of the by-products the incorporation of each of these stages in the sludge-processing flowsheet depends on the characteristics of the sludge produced or, in other words, on the treatment system used for the liquid phase, as well as on the subsequent sludgetreatment stage and on the final disposal. thickening is a physical process of concentrating the sludge, with the aim of reducing its water content and, as a result, its volume, facilitating the subsequent sludge treatment stages. stabilisation aims at attenuating the inconveniences associated with the generation of bad odours during processing and disposing of the sludge. this is accomplished through the removal of the biodegradable organic matter of the sludge, what also brings about a reduction in the solids mass in the sludge. conditioning is a sludge preparation process, based on the addition of chemical products (coagulants, polyelectrolytes) to increase its dewatering capability and to improve the capture of solids in the sludge dewatering systems. thenextstageisthe dewatering ofthesludge,whichcanbedonethroughnatural or mechanical methods. the objective of this phase is to remove water and reduce the volume even further, producing a sludge with a mechanical behaviour close to solids. the dewatering of the sludge has an important impact in its transport and final disposal costs, besides influencing its subsequent handling, since the mechanical behaviour varies with the water content level. the disinfection of the sludge is necessary if its destination is for agricultural recycling, since the anaerobic or aerobic digestion processes usually employed do not reduce the pathogens content to acceptable levels. disinfection is not necessary if the sludge is to be incinerated or disposed of in landfills. table 5.2 presents the sludge management stages usually adopted for the most frequently used sewage treatment systems. there are process variants within each stage, with the main ones being presented in table 5.3. overview of sludge treatment and disposal 255
what is phenotypic plasticity?
phenotypic plasticity can enable populations to tolerate environmental changes
how are they useful?
both effects should be highly relevant for al relicts as they should help these relicts endure episodes of peak stress and minimize negative effects of demographic stochasticity
what is the really very important question?
an important question is, therefore, whether a high potential for phenotypic plasticity could hamper microevolutionary processes required to persist in a rapidly changing environment
phenotypic plasticity can enable populations to tolerate environmental changes, either directly through phenotypic adjustments during individuals' lifetime or indirectly by reducing negative consequences of strong selection pressures on population growth rates (morris et al. 2008, niinemets 2010, pfennig et al. 2010). both effects should be highly relevant for al relicts as they should help these relicts endure episodes of peak stress and minimize negative effects of demographic stochasticity. bl and bs relicts clearly benefit from the second effect, because phenotypic plasticity is expected to reduce mortality associated with strong selection pressures in all species subject to rapid environmental changes (reed et al. 2011). however, the role of phenotypic plasticity in allowing bl and bs relicts to tolerate environmental change directly is less straightforward because, by definition, other organisms will strongly modify their response to change. phenotypic plasticity allows populations to track changing conditions without significant adaptation taking place. however, once the capacity for phenotypic adjustment is exceeded, then genetic adaptation remains the only option. an important question is, therefore, whether a high potential for phenotypic plasticity could hamper microevolutionary processes required to persist in a rapidly changing environment. although this question does not have a simple answer
Do increases of precipitation intensity in a climate warmed by greenhouse gasses, have a uniform spatial distribution?
in a future climate warmed by increased greenhouse gases, increases of precipitation intensity do not have a uniform spatial distribution
What is the pattern of precipitation intensity increase in the midlatitiudes related to?
in the midlatitudes, the pattern of precipitation intensity increase is related in part to the increased water vapor being carried to areas of mean moisture convergence to produce greater precipitation, as well as to changes in atmospheric circulation
What are general increases in water vapor associated with in the tropics?
in the tropics, general increases in water vapor associated with positive sst anomalies in the warmer climate produce increased precipitation intensity over most land areas
in a future climate warmed by increased greenhouse gases, increases of precipitation intensity do not have a uniform spatial distribution. here we analyze a multi-model aogcm data set to examine processes that produce the geographic pattern of these precipitation intensity changes over land. in the tropics, general increases in water vapor associated with positive sst anomalies in the warmer climate produce increased precipitation intensity over most land areas. in the midlatitudes, the pattern of precipitation intensity increase is related in part to the increased water vapor being carried to areas of mean moisture convergence to produce greater precipitation, as well as to changes in atmospheric circulation. advective effects, indicated by sea level pressure changes, contribute to greatest precipitation intensity increases (as well as mean precipitation increases) over northwestern and northeastern north america, northern europe, northern asia, the east coast of asia, southeastern australia, and south-central south america. citation: meehl, g. a., j. m. arblaster, and c. tebaldi (2005), understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations, geophys. res. lett. 32 l18719, doi:10.1029/2005gl023680.
What does biomaker evidence show?
biomarker evidence shows that a flourishing and diverse microbial ecosystem, including complex eukaryotes, was already in place by the beginning of the proterozoic (waldbauer et al. 2009), although eukaryotic microfossils do not make their appearance until midway through the proterozoic
What is the curious effect of being a few microns in diameter?
if you are only a few microns in diameter, a pond can seem like a whole universe
What is suggested evolved before the Marinoan?
biomarkers suggest that sponges may have evolved before the marinoan (love et al. 2009
biomarker evidence shows that a flourishing and diverse microbial ecosystem, including complex eukaryotes, was already in place by the beginning of the proterozoic (waldbauer et al. 2009), although eukaryotic microfossils do not make their appearance until midway through the proterozoic. the survival of these eukaryotes, particularly photosynthetic ones, poses a considerable challenge for the snowball hypothesis. it has been conjectured that, in a snowball, eukaryotes survive in small and perhaps intermittent open-water oases. if you are only a few microns in diameter, a pond can seem like a whole universe. the frond-like ediacaran biota appear at 575 mya, roughly contemporaneous with the shuram excursion and well after the marinoan glaciation. the early metazoan embryos of the doushantuo formation also date back to a time near the onset of the shuram anomaly (xiao knoll 2000). mobile bilaterian animals, however, come in at 555 mya, which is unambiguously at the close of the shuram anomaly. metazoans and multicellular plants require high levels of free oxygen to support their metabolism, so the rise of metazoans (especially mobile ones) in the late neoproterozoic also suggests a rise in oxygen at the time. however, biomarkers suggest that sponges may have evolved before the marinoan (love et al. 2009). the survival of sponges, if confirmed, would present a greater challenge for the snowball hypothesis.
What is a crosscutting challenge requiring multi-sector and multistakeholder participation and commitment?
broadening participation in urban adaptation planning climate adaptation
What a 2014 survey of early adopters worldwide found out?
found that a majority of cities identify only two sectors - departments of environment and landuse planning - as actively engaged in adaptation planning and implementation
Which agencies are actively engaged in only a minority of cities?
agencies responsible for water, wastewater, and solid waste management
broadening participation in urban adaptation planning climate adaptation is a crosscutting challenge requiring multi-sector and multistakeholder participation and commitment. however, the dominant actors in urban adaptation planning at present remain "confined to the environmental wing of local authorities and disjointed from other areas of policy making"46,47. a 2014 survey of early adopters worldwide found that a majority of cities identify only two sectors - departments of environment and landuse planning - as actively engaged in adaptation planning and implementation. agencies responsible for water, wastewater, and solid waste management are actively engaged in only a minority of cities, while those responsible for economic development and health are far less engaged48,49. similarly, municipal adaptation often does not engage community or social justice advocacy groups, or takes place in isolation from community-based adaptation planning
What percentage of US carbon dioxide output was attributed to household energy use
47direct energy use by us households, for example, accounted for 38% of overall us carbon dioxide emissions in 2005, or 626 million metric tons of carbon, though differences from state to state make generalizations as to their sources within household use difficult
Which country has the largest carbon dioxide output in the world?
us carbon dioxide emissions in 2005, or 626 million metric tons of carbon, though differences from state to state make generalizations as to their sources within household use difficult.48-50by comparison, this amount is larger than the emissions of any entire country except china
ghg emissions attributable to household and personal consumption as a percentage of total national emissions are highly significant in those western societies that have contributed the majority of emissions to date.47direct energy use by us households, for example, accounted for 38% of overall us carbon dioxide emissions in 2005, or 626 million metric tons of carbon, though differences from state to state make generalizations as to their sources within household use difficult.48-50by comparison, this amount is larger than the emissions of any entire country except china.11a recent study of both direct and indirect energy consumption by chinese households suggests that residents' lifestyles and related economic activities contribute 30% of total carbon dioxide emissions.51of course, there are significant urban-rural differences in china that play a role for emissions;52indirect emissions exceed direct emissions for urban residents while direct emissions are more significant in rural settings.51,52energy consumption and income are strongly correlated in china; higher income brackets emit significantly more than low income brackets.52western development pathways, lifestyles and notions of progress have set emerging economies on a path similar to that of already industrialized countries and this will increasingly translate into significant personal and household emissions there unless rapid steps are taken to decarbonize the economy.53it is clear therefore that individual and household emissions are significant contributors to climate change.
When almost the entire Mongolian steppe region experienced significant vegetation biomass declines?
between 1988 and 2008
What is the projection in Mongolia over the next three decades?
average air temperature is projected to increase and precipitation to decrease in mongolia over the next three decades
What the implications of this changing climate will do?
the implications of this changing climate will further stress an already fragile environment and likely accelerate grassland degradation
we present evidence that: (1) almost the entire mongolian steppe region experienced significant vegetation biomass declines between 1988 and 2008; (2) about 60% of the decline can be attributed to climate trends: in particular, decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature; and (3) the dramatic increase in goat numbers and grassland burning is likely to account for most of the remaining decline. average air temperature is projected to increase and precipitation to decrease in mongolia over the next three decades the implications of this changing climate will further stress an already fragile environment and likely accelerate grassland degradation. there is an urgent need to develop and implement effective strategies for sustainable grazing practices, and reduce the incidence and severity of burning in order to improve the resilience of the mongolian steppes. understanding the competing influences of climate, land management and global demand for a niche agricultural product like cashmere will be key to protecting these ecosystems from further degradation.
How the interest was renewed?
the renewed interest has been driven by a seemingly simple question: are there certain values on which public engagement with climate change is (or should be) predicated
How the question is answered in the paper?
in this paper, we attempt to answer this question by reviewing the empirical literature on human values and public engagement with climate change
What is done in the first section?
in the first section, we identify a variety of ways in which values have been conceptualized, and briefly describe how values are related to general environmental attitudes and behaviors
the renewed interest has been driven by a seemingly simple question: are there certain values on which public engagement with climate change is (or should be) predicated? in this paper, we attempt to answer this question by reviewing the empirical literature on human values and public engagement with climate change. in the first section, we identify a variety of ways in which values have been conceptualized, and briefly describe how values are related to general environmental attitudes and behaviors. next, we review the literature on the role of values in public engagement with climate change specifically. we also review both academic and 'gray' literature from civil society organizations that has focused on how public messages about climate change should be
What was the main cause of the blackouts in August 2003?
high demand in a hot summer
What is one thing that is driving the climate to change?
the burning of fossil fuels
Is there security for the future of having enough supply of energy that will be needed?
this will be increasingly challenged by the end of the fossil fuel age; the rise of embedded generation, micro-grids, privatization, deregulation, lack of investment in the industry, geopolitical insecurity, extreme weather, and a plethora of other forces are gathering to test our ingenuity in keeping the lights on for as long as possible
quality of supply how important is quality if there is no supply? how will the inevitable ' rewiring of britain ' to accept renewables affect the quality of supply? will we have to adapt to using lower quality energy, as well as to using less of it? <s121>*security of supply this will be increasingly challenged by the end of the fossil fuel age; the rise of embedded generation, micro-grids, privatization, deregulation, lack of investment in the industry, geopolitical insecurity, extreme weather, and a plethora of other forces are gathering to test our ingenuity in keeping the lights on for as long as possible. <s121>*environment this must be the driver: energy use is dependent on weather and our warmer and more extreme weather has proved to be the wild card that carries the poker game. the blackouts in august 2003 were caused in large part by high demand in a hot summer, the sort of hot summer we will increasingly expect every year or two in the future. the other critical factor is that of the global environmental impacts of energy generation, the burning of fossil fuels that is driving the climate to change. those who maintain that the problems of a changing climate can be solved simply by throwing more energy at them - that energy-profligate buildings will provide bastions of comfort for those who can afford it - are mistaken. the institution of civil engineers (ice), in their state of the nation report 2003, 31 pointed out the chronic structural problems the uk faces:
Where deforestation tend to occur mostly?
in tropical latitudes
Where afforestation tend to occur for the most part?
at higher latitudes
projections of human land use over the next century depend on myriad demographic, economic, and environmental factors that are often more complex than the climate system itself. therefore, it is difficult to say with great precision how forest areas will grow or shrink as a direct result of human land-use decisions. scenarios of land use that correspond to the intergovernmental panel on climate change sres narratives have been produced by the image group (138, 139). global cropland area in these simulations for 2100 range from 27% in an a2 scenario to 10.8% in a b1 scenario, compared to a baseline value of 14.5% in 1990. thus, projections range from a slight net afforestation on a global scale to massive deforestation that nearly doubles current cropland area. all scenarios are characterized by large geographic variation, with deforestation tending to occur mainly in tropical latitudes where food demand growth and arable land potential are greatest. afforestation tends to occur at higher latitudes figure 2 ). deforestation will generally play two important roles in modulating ecosystem feedbacks to climate. first, the total amount of deforestation itself may change in response to
What is the reason for small differences in microclimatic data?
with small differences attributed to the effect of the urban fabric
What is the height of wind speed measured in meteorological station?
meteorological station the respective height is 10m
What is the unit of horizontal illuminance measured in meteorological station?
horizontal illuminance measured in klux
generally, the microclimatic data recorded at the interview periods are in accordance to the data recorded at the meteorological station for all seasons, with small differences attributed to the effect of the urban fabric. large differences are expected in wind speeds due to the fact that at the different sites wind speed was measured at less than 1m high, whereas at the meteorological station the respective height is 10m, unobstructed by buildings and vegetation. thus, wind speed from the meteorological station is transposed from the z1=10m height, down to z2=0.75m, corresponding to the average height of measurements during the surveys according to: wsz2=wsz1*(z2/z1) 0.25 the relationship between the data measured on site and those of the meteorological station is shown in figure 6. regarding the solar radiation information obtained from the station, horizontal illuminance measured in klux is used for the comparison. although these are different parameters, they are nevertheless strongly related, as horizontal illuminance is a specially treated fraction of the global solar radiation
What are quite similar?
the benefits from all three sources of adaptation are quite similar
What is perhaps to be expected in a model that emphasizes markets?
the predominance of market-based adaptation is perhaps to be expected in a model that emphasizes markets
What is likely to be somewhat limited?
the list of biophysical adaptations permitted in the model is likely to be somewhat limited
regcm), the benefits from all three sources of adaptation are quite similar. the two sets of results which show by far the largest benefits from adaptation in the us are the canadian and hadley scenarios, with benefits reaching $12 and $16 billion, respectively. in these two models, the value of market adaptation is pre-dominant - accounting for two-thirds and three-quarters of the total adaptation benefits, respectively. the predominance of market-based adaptation is perhaps to be expected in a model that emphasizes markets - particularly one such as fasom - which is fully intertemporal and therefore includes market tradeoffs over time as well as across space and activities. in addition, the list of biophysical adaptations permitted in the model is likely to be somewhat limited, therefore biasing the results further in the direction of the market effects. nonetheless, it is interesting to see the important role for market-based adaptations. this suggests that those iams which treat some types of economic behavior (e.g., consumption) as being exogenously determined should think seriously about endogenizing the relevant adaptation relevant responses. while this discussion of existing models is far from exhaustive, it does cover those modeling approaches most widely cited in the current literature and, as such, gives a very good feel for range of adaptations considered. we turn now to a critical assessment of these models as well as to opportunities for empirical contributions aimed at enhancing their performance.
What do debates about discounting have a long history in?
economics and public policy
What does discounting involve?
two related and often confused concepts
What does the real return measure?
the yield on investments corrected by the change in the overall price level
debates about discounting have a long history in economics and public debates about discounting have a long history in economics and public policy. discounting involves two related and often confused concepts. one is the idea of a discount rate on goods, which is a positive concept that measures a relative price of goods at different points of time. this is also called the real return on capital, the real interest rate, the opportunity cost of capital, and the real return. the real return measures the yield on investments corrected by the change in the overall price level. in principle, this is observable in the marketplace. for example, the real return on 20-year u.s. treasury securities in spring 2007 was 2.4 percent per year. similarly, the real pre-tax return on u.s. corporate capital over the last four decades has averaged about 6.6 percent per year. estimated real returns on human capital range from 6 percent per year to 20-plus percent per year depending upon country and time period. the ipcc second assessment report discussed actual returns and reported real returns on investment ranging from 5 to 26 percent per year.13 in my empirical work with aggregated and regional models, based on returns from many studies, i generally use a benchmark real return on capital of around 6 percent per year. since taxes are excluded, this is the real discount rate on consumption as well.
What does dogmatism imply?
dogmatism implies that knowledge is given ... and cannot be questioned. verifying knowledge or seeking new knowledge is thus not a relevant task
How can the dualistic view of knowledge and education be defined?
the dualistic view of knowledge and education is a cultural phenomenon that influences thinking, policies and practices. the bureaucratic characteristics of the educational system are features at the organisational level that they can shape conditions for educational practices that can be contradictory and counterproductive
dogmatism implies that knowledge is given ... and cannot be questioned. verifying knowledge or seeking new knowledge is thus not a relevant task. the irrationalism implies that attempts to reach knowledge through rigorous scientific methods are fruitless, since other criteria (rhetoric, argument, convincement and marketing) decide what we believe, not evidence. (allodi 2002a p. 35) the post-modern criticism of enlightenment's reason risks a come-back of dogmatism and irrationalism. even if these consequences were perhaps not meant originally, these effects have been noticed before, for instance by bourdieau: ''certain post-modern analyses ... bring out only the honest-to-goodness, irrational rejection of knowledge ... masked as a rejection of 'positivism' and 'scientism''' (bourdieu 1996 pp. 256-257, author translation). these attitudes are flourishing in the swedish educational field. besides hampering cooperation between researchers and professionals (defined as positivistic), they might effectively prevent the educational field for appreciating the contribution of understanding of educational processes that can come from these fields of educational psychology, cognitive psychology, social psychology, child and adolescent psychiatry, public health, etc. a prevalent critical perspective on education can also cause disbelieving attitudes (or, alternatively, total disinterest) towards content that can be seen as embodying reformist-- and thus nai"ve--attempts to improve educational practice. educational researchers inspired mainly by critical theories and frameworks are usually not interested in intervention programs aimed at improvements of educational practices. this choice is obviously legitimate, but a problem arises when the ambition in or the engagement to improve practices are criticised as nai"ve or paternalistic efforts that deserve to be discouraged and devalued. such criticism risks ending up quickly in a cynical standpoint. the marginalised position of the issues of social climate, relationships and classroom management can be associated with these more general tendencies in educational research and teacher training. reflections and directions for action the difficulties and challenges described above can be ascribed or found at various levels of the educational system. the dualistic view of knowledge and education is a cultural phenomenon that influences thinking, policies and practices. the bureaucratic characteristics of the educational system are features at the organisational level that they can shape conditions for educational practices that can be contradictory and counterproductive. the problems related to some reductive interpretations of social climate (as discipline, or as behaviour management techniques, applied in uninspired ways) could emerge in educational practice. these contradictions could be related to the coexistence and conflict of two distinct authority types in the educational system: the charismatic and the technical-rational. the relative devaluation of what is assumed to be normative--and thus problematic (i.e. the transmission of civic values through classroom climate, with the uncertainty this can produce)--can be represented in classroom practice, teacher education and educational research. the same is true for the emphasis on assessment and evaluation of pupils' achievements, which is seen as the only way in which to measure educational quality and results. this theme also is often enforced by goals-related educational policies, often aimed
What type of issues is worthy of consideration on its own merits
each of these issues is worthy of consideration on its own merits, but typically only becomes part of climate policy when used by advocates on both sides as ammunition in the debate over the kyoto protocol and ''dangerous interference
which policy is Far from important element in more effective outcomes of Kyoto Protocol and ''dangerous interference
energy policy is far from an important element in more effective outcomes in these areas
which CEO is opposed to implementation of the Kyoto Protocol
lee raymond, ceo of exxonmobil a company famously opposed to implementation of the kyoto protocol
each of these issues is worthy of consideration on its own merits, but typically only becomes part of climate policy when used by advocates on both sides as ammunition in the debate over the kyoto protocol and ''dangerous interference.'' but clearly, improving policies in the context of extreme events, public health, and ecosystem sustainability depends on a wide range of factors other than changes to global energy policy. and in some cases, energy policy is far from an important element in more effective outcomes in these areas. consequently, a common interest objective of climate policy would be to improve societal and environmental resilience to climate, independent of the causes of variability and change. 6.2. energy policy decoupling climate policy from energy policy would not mean that the nations of the world should then forget about the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions. to the contrary, a new approach might even offer an opportunity to address energy policy in a more comprehensive manner, focusing on pollution, efficiency, and independence, thereby perhaps removing the barrier of scientific uncertainty and creating a broader justification for early action. a return to energy efficiency and conservation as a central organizing theme for global energy policy would diminish the obstacle presented by global warming as a political issue, and elevate other the other reasons for cleaner use of fossil fuels. lee raymond, ceo of exxonmobil a company famously opposed to implementation of the kyoto protocol, has stated ''this world shouldn't be wasting energy, and it absolutely does waste energy; we shouldn't use any natural resource inefficiently, as the world will eventually run out
Why difficult to find enough promising projects and programs for large-scale ODA investment in poverty reduction?
apart from the political economy motives already mentioned above, a potential reason for oda financed climate policy seems to be that it is simply extremely difficult to find enough promising projects and programs for large-scale oda investment in poverty reduction
What is the impact of a start on self-sustaining development?
the mechanisms and incentives relevant for a kick-start to self-sustaining development are often so complicated that easy solutions may cause the opposite of what was initially intended. while aid has to be targeted to poor countries, incentives to remain poor in order to receive more aid (or debt relief) are to be avoided
Why shouldn't governments use their own resources?
moreover, it must be avoided that governments take advantage of the inflows of aid to use their own resources for activities unrelated or even detrimental to development (e.g. military expenditure). in fact, large-scale projects and programs with an unambiguously positive, significant and lasting development impact are relatively rare
apart from the political economy motives already mentioned above, a potential reason for oda financed climate policy seems to be that it is simply extremely difficult to find enough promising projects and programs for large-scale oda investment in poverty reduction. the mechanisms and incentives relevant for a kick-start to self-sustaining development are often so complicated that easy solutions may cause the opposite of what was initially intended. while aid has to be targeted to poor countries, incentives to remain poor in order to receive more aid (or debt relief) are to be avoided. moreover, it must be avoided that governments take advantage of the inflows of aid to use their own resources for activities unrelated or even detrimental to development (e.g. military expenditure). in fact, large-scale projects and programs with an unambiguously positive, significant and lasting development impact are relatively rare.
what is the release 1 unconstrained product?
we use the release 1 unconstrained products. these products are described by bettadpur [2004], which details the processing standards, models and parameters that have been used
how c20 is composed?
we replace the c20 component in these data with c20 components derived from satellite laser ranging data cheng and tapley 2004]. the raw fields have been corrected for the mean field by removing the weighted average of the 34 approximately monthly fields
how to find the radial surface displacement?
we scale the grace stokes coefficients to obtain spherical harmonic stokes coefficients of surface mass wahr et al. 1998] to find the radial surface displacement at any point
we use the release 1 unconstrained products. these products are described by bettadpur [2004], which details the processing standards, models and parameters that have been used. we replace the c20 component in these data with c20 components derived from satellite laser ranging data cheng and tapley 2004]. the raw fields have been corrected for the mean field by removing the weighted average of the 34 approximately monthly fields. the residual stokes coefficients, then, primarily contain variations in the gravity field driven by the geographic redistribution of water mass (groundwater, soil moisture, snow and ice, and ocean mass), as well as errors due to measurement and processing errors, aliasing effects (the aliasing of any mismodeled submonthly gravity signals into the grace monthly solutions) and errors in the atmospheric and ocean corrections. we scale the grace stokes coefficients to obtain spherical harmonic stokes coefficients of surface mass wahr et al. 1998] to find the radial surface displacement at any point. the mathematical relationships between the stokes coefficients of mass and the radial surface displacement is
which ponds constitute a very appropriate alternative for sewage treatment in warm-climate regions?
anaerobic ponds constitute a very appropriate alternative for sewage treatment in warm-climate regions
which Figure  illustrates a typical anaerobic pond?
figure 26.6 illustrates a typical anaerobic pond
anaerobic ponds uses which machanism?
operation of the anaerobic ponds is very similar to that of septic tanks and uses the same basic removal mechanisms
anaerobic ponds constitute a very appropriate alternative for sewage treatment in warm-climate regions, and they are usually combined with facultative ponds. they are also frequently used for the treatment of wastewaters with a high concentration of organic matter, such as those from slaughterhouses, dairies, breweries, etc. figure 26.6 illustrates a typical anaerobic pond. owing to the large dimensions and the long hydraulic detention times, anaerobic ponds can be classified as low volumetric organic load reactors. in their typical configuration, the operation of the anaerobic ponds is very similar to that of septic tanks and uses the same basic removal mechanisms described in the previous section. however, the dimensions of the anaerobic ponds are superior to those of the septic tanks, which gives them some different characteristics:
What seismic effects?
seismic effects
What should be our global response to climate change?
global response to climate change
How can neighboring countries contribute to global response?
rich countries
one dramatic and hidden episode of the paris conference pertained to fi nance. less than 24 hours before the end, a very tense debate among the ministers of rich countries raged behind closed doors. several northern countries opposed making fi nancial commitments, and even suggested reversing previous pledges of climate fi nance. the entire outcome hung in the balance, since fi nance was a redline issue for the g77 and china. some european diplomats fought and argued: " any change in our position on fi nance will have seismic effects on the negotiations and will wreck the entire deal. what happens in paris will be in the history books for a long time. let ' s not give any historian a reason to write that we ruined the global response to climate change " (personal notes). such
What can be a clear consequence of urbanisation and global climate warming?
it is clear that the combined effects of urbanisation and global climate warming can give rise to a decrease in urban air quality and an increase in urban heat island intensity, amplifying the risk to expose the citizens to discomfort and health-related problems, and leading to higher energy demands for cooling
What has to be considered when assessing the described aspects?
in assessing these aspects, it is needed to consider a wide scope of phenomena, occurring over a wide range of spatial scales
What effects do we consider at larger scales?
at increasingly larger scales we have the effect of the urban morphology at neighbourhood scale, the urban heat island effect at city-scale, the effect of topography at regional scale and finally the global effects of climate and climate change
from the preceding, it is clear that the combined effects of urbanisation and global climate warming can give rise to a decrease in urban air quality and an increase in urban heat island intensity, amplifying the risk to expose the citizens to discomfort and health-related problems, and leading to higher energy demands for cooling. in assessing these aspects, it is needed to consider a wide scope of phenomena, occurring over a wide range of spatial scales. the individual building with its technical installation marks one end of the spectrum. at increasingly larger scales we have the effect of the urban morphology at neighbourhood scale, the urban heat island effect at city-scale, the effect of topography at regional scale and finally the global effects of climate and climate change.
Why were growth response functions developed and plotted at the optimum AHM value of each response function?
to facilitate comparisons among the 14 spu populations and the four regions
Why was the superiority of NElow and PGlow populations particularly obvious?
the superiority of these two spu populations was particularly obvious at mats warmer than 3.0 1 c, indicating they are potentially suitable seed sources for warmer planting sites and for future climates
How well did the populations from both the north and the south perform?
populations from both the north (northern bc and yukon) and the south (mt and wo) not only underperformed populations from the central area studied, but also had relatively narrow fundamental niches in term of mat in comparison with central
to facilitate comparisons among the 14 spu populations and the four regions, growth response functions were developed and plotted at the optimum ahm value of each response function (fig. 6). nelow and pglow populations outperformed others across a wide range of mats. the superiority of these two spu populations was particularly obvious at mats warmer than 3.0 1 c, indicating they are potentially suitable seed sources for warmer planting sites and for future climates. populations from both the north (northern bc and yukon) and the south (mt and wo) not only underperformed populations from the central area studied, but also had relatively narrow fundamental niches in term of mat in comparison with central
In the future with regard to nature what can happen to other economic systems? They may or may not be inherently in conflict
other economic systems, especially in the future, may or may not be inherently in conflict with nature
What is known about the gap in the carbon cycle? Continues to expand and deepen
this remains to be seen. we do know that the rift in the carbon cycle continues to expand and deepen
When can technological development help to close the carbon gap? When free from the dictates of capital relations
technological development cannot assist in mending the carbon rift until it is freed from the dictates of capital relations
other economic systems, especially in the future, may or may not be inherently in conflict with nature. this remains to be seen. we do know that the rift in the carbon cycle continues to expand and deepen. capital has robbed the global commons, which were used for the absorption of carbon, only to impoverish the future. technological development cannot assist in mending the carbon rift until it is freed from the dictates of capital relations. thus, changing the historical system offers the only possibility of slowing global climate change (and we state "slowing," simply because we will inherit the legacy of carbon that has already accumulated in the biosphere). the planetary nature of climate change and the global reach of capitalism require that efforts to transcend these issues involve global cooperation. otherwise, the biospheric rift will continue to expand as we race to the inferno.
What is the school climate?
school climate is a complex and multifaceted construct that has been measured and studied extensively as a catalyst for school improvement. the conceptualization of school climate as a multidimensional construct has several strengths and limitations
Do scholars agree that the school climate is multidimensional?
scholars agree that school climate is multidimensional
What is the current definition of school climate?
current definitions of school climate incorporate a wide range of constructs that shape student learning and behavior. this inclusiveness comes at a price. many of these constructs overlap or are duplicated across studies
school climate is a complex and multifaceted construct that has been measured and studied extensively as a catalyst for school improvement. the conceptualization of school climate as a multidimensional construct has several strengths and limitations. first, scholars agree that school climate is multidimensional, but there is little clarity or agreement regarding the number of domains that characterize climate and the boundaries that separate these domains. current definitions of school climate incorporate a wide range of constructs that shape student learning and behavior. this inclusiveness comes at a price. many of these constructs overlap or are duplicated across studies. for example, some studies examine the contributions of school
what is investigated in this study?
we investigated in this study the contributive response of models to climate variability
and compared to what?
and compared the modeled response to the response diagnosed from available 'observations' (in fact other data-driven models
What are the main contributive responses to interannual climate drivers?
the main contributive responses to interannual climate drivers are c - the response to temperature anomalies in units of pg c yr 1deg c 1, d - the response to rainfall anomalies in units of pg c yr 1100 mm 1, and b - the response to co2 trend, in units of pg c yr 1
to overcome the inevitable spread of curves resulting from a comparison of complex models with available observations, we investigated in this study the contributive response of models to climate variability, and compared the modeled response to the response diagnosed from available 'observations' (in fact other data-driven models). the main contributive responses to interannual climate drivers are c - the response to temperature anomalies in units of pg c yr 1deg c 1, d - the response to rainfall anomalies in units of pg c yr 1100 mm 1, and b - the response to co2 trend, in units of pg c yr 1
For relative scaling, what causes the peak at the beginning of every year?
looking at relative scaling (fig. 11c) there is a notable peak at beginning of the year caused by hydrological models
Where else are the hydrological models becoming a greater influence?
the same as in the upper niger, the differences between the two scenario periods are small, but influence of hydrological models is getting higher in the second scenario period
In what seasonsbhas the rhine become more of a contributer?
in contrast to these two basins, for the rhine also the rcps become more important contributors of uncertainty, but only for the second scenario period (2061-2090), and mainly in summer and autumn
(fig. 11b). looking at relative scaling (fig. 11c) there is a notable peak at beginning of the year caused by hydrological models. the reason for this peak is not yet clear. the same as in the upper niger, the differences between the two scenario periods are small, but influence of hydrological models is getting higher in the second scenario period. in contrast to these two basins, for the rhine also the rcps become more important contributors of uncertainty, but only for the second scenario period (2061-2090), and mainly in summer and autumn. as in the other two basins, looking at the whole 470
What is one negative effect climate change will have?
it is likely that the climate change will alter the regional distribution of hungry people, with particularly large negative effects in sub-saharan africa
What climate changes were estimated?
 increasing frequencies of heat stress, drought and flooding events are estimated to be likely, even though they cannot be modelled in
What will climate effect the most?
undoubtedly have adverse effects on crop and livestock productivity
it is likely that the climate change will alter the regional distribution of hungry people, with particularly large negative effects in sub-saharan africa. the fourth assessment report also notes that smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and artisanal fisherfolk will suffer complex, localised impacts of climate change, due both to constrained adaptive capacity in many places and to the additional impacts of other climaterelated processes such as snow-pack decrease, particularly in the indo-gangetic plain, and sea level rise (ipcc, 2007). climate change impacts on agriculture are thus not only regionally distinct but also highly heterogeneous spatially. to this milieu can be added the fact that changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events will have significant consequences for food production and food security; it is not only projected mean climate change that will have an impact. increasing frequencies of heat stress, drought and flooding events are estimated to be likely, even though they cannot be modelled in any satisfactory way with current levels of understanding of climate systems, but these will undoubtedly have adverse effects on crop and livestock productivity over and above the impacts due to changes in mean variables alone (ipcc, 2007).
On what will section 6 focus on?
section 6 will then focus more specifically on transport emissions and the difficulties in quantifying their climate impact
What will be presented in section 7?
section 7 will present metric values for transport-related emissions and assess them for their quality and robustness
What will be discussed in sections 8 and 9?
for the most part, the discussion will focus on climate metrics, but section 8 will discuss stratospheric ozone depletion metrics in the context of the transport sector. finally, section 9 will present conclusions regarding the status of our current understanding of the calculation and use of metrics, and discuss prospects for future improvements
f gwp and gtp and the practicalities and difficulties in their application. section 6 will then focus more specifically on transport emissions and the difficulties in quantifying their climate impact. section 7 will present metric values for transport-related emissions and assess them for their quality and robustness. for the most part, the discussion will focus on climate metrics, but section 8 will discuss stratospheric ozone depletion metrics in the context of the transport sector. finally, section 9 will present conclusions regarding the status of our current understanding of the calculation and use of metrics, and discuss prospects for future improvements. note that the focus here will be on providing metrics to measure and intercompare the impact of emissions from the operation of vehicles in each transport sector. we do not present a methodology for the total environmental (or even climate) impact of a particular transport activity, including the effects of construction, the extraction and production of the fuel supply, operation and decommissioning (life-cycle analyses); nevertheless, the metrics discussed here can contribute to more holistic assessments. 2. a general perspective fig. 1 shows a standard cause and effect chain from emissions through physical changes in climate to ecological, health, or economic damage.4in general, as one moves down the chain, the parameters become more relevant to society, but, at the same time, they become more difficult to quantify. in this section we illustrate the first steps in this chain for a simplified example, with all quantities taken to be global averages. note that neither fig. 1 nor the simplified example here, attempt to represent the many complex feedbacks that could exist in the climate system; changes in any of the boxes in fig. 1 have the potential to impact on the processes in all the other boxes (for example, changes in temperature can impact on co2 emissions or the rate of reactions that destroy methane). consider a gas or aerosol component, whose removal from the atmosphere can be represented by a simple exponential decay, with lifetime
There is strong evidence?
there is strong evidence that individuals contextualize the issue of climate change within much broader, though not necessarily environmental, perspectives
suggest that participants?
suggest that participants' thinking about climate change
Further evidence for this contextualisation
further evidence for this contextualisation is that australian participants draw on scientific and local knowledge and on moral and value-based considerations in their responses to questions about climate change.75
there is strong evidence that individuals contextualize the issue of climate change within much broader, though not necessarily environmental, perspectives. focus group research conducted in frankfurt, germany and manchester, united kingdom, and other studies in newcastle, australia, as well as in roxbury, massachusetts and rural southern oregon (united states), for example, suggest that participants' thinking about climate change transcends strictly environmental issues and includes consideration of global inequalities, fairness, and health or livelihood concerns in addressing the issue.75,85,86 further evidence for this contextualisation is that australian participants draw on scientific and local knowledge and on moral and value-based considerations in their responses to questions about climate change.75
What are the consequences of jellyfish outbreaks?
loss of tourist revenue through beach closures and even death of bathers; blockage of coastal power plant cooling intakes, forcing electricity shutdowns; damage to fish nets and contamination of catches; interference with acoustic fish assessments; mortalities among farmed fish; and reduced commercial fish abundance through competition and predation
What year did the decline in krill Euphausia superba biomass in the Southern Ocean start?
since the 1970s, there has been a decline in krill euphausia superba biomass in the southern ocean
How did the phytoplankton become more abundant?
here, phytoplankton become more abundant with warming of cool, windy, and well-mixed regions, probably because warmer temperatures boost metabolic rates and enhance stratification, thereby increasing the amount of time phytoplankton cells spend in the euphotic zone
changes in abundance are more difficult to attribute to global warming than are shifts in distribution or phenology, although they may have greater ecosystem ramifications. one of the most striking examples of changes in abundance in response to longterm warming is from foraminifera in the california current (field et al ., 2006). foraminifera are ideal for long-term climate change studies because their populations are controlled more by changes in climate and primary productivity than by changes in predation, and they are also well preserved in sediments. as a result, their temporal dynamics can be linked to changes in climate over long time-scales. throughout the 20th century, the number of tropical subtropical species has been increasing, reflecting a warming trend; this phenomenon is most dramatic after the 1960s (figure 6). this change towards tropical foraminifera echoes similar increases in abundance of many other subtropical and tropical taxa and decreases in temperate algae, zooplankton, fish, and seabirds in the california current over the past few decades. an illustration from the northeast atlantic highlights the effect that global warming can have on stratification and plankton abundances, and emphasizes the region-specific consequences (richardson and schoeman, 2004). here, phytoplankton become more abundant with warming of cool, windy, and well-mixed regions, probably because warmer temperatures boost metabolic rates and enhance stratification, thereby increasing the amount of time phytoplankton cells spend in the euphotic zone. however, phytoplankton become less abundant when already warm regions get even warmer, probably because warmer surface water blocks further nutrient-rich deep water from rising to the euphotic layer. this regional phytoplankton response is transmitted up the plankton foodweb to herbivorous copepods and carnivorous zooplankton. therefore, over long timeand broad space scales, plankton foodwebs are controlled from the "bottom up" by primary producers, rather than from the "top down" by predators. because the amount of phytoplankton and zooplankton in a region is likely to influence the carrying capacity of fish (ware and thompson, 2005), the response to climate change of lower trophic levels suggests that the abundance and distribution of fish will change in the future, having regional impacts on fisheries. most evidence of climate impacts on zooplankton is from the northern hemisphere because this is where most (plankton) science is concentrated, but nevertheless, there have been dramatic changes documented from waters elsewhere. since the 1970s, there has been a decline in krill euphausia superba biomass in the southern ocean and a concomitant increase in salps, which occupy less productive and warmer regions (atkinson et al ., 2004). it is likely that these changes are a consequence of global warming. strong summer phytoplankton blooms and winters of extensive sea ice, with plentiful food from ice algae, enhance survival of krill larvae as well as recruitment to adult stocks. as waters have warmed, the extent of winter sea ice and its duration have declined, which is likely to have impaired larval krill survival and explains the observed decline in krill density. warmer waters also provide more favourable habitat for salps. the declining population abundance of krill could be deleterious to the populations of baleen whales, fish, penguins, seabirds, and seals that depend on krill as their primary food source. probably the zooplankton that people are most familiar with in their daily lives are jellyfish. jellyfish outbreaks have a host of societal consequences: loss of tourist revenue through beach closures and even death of bathers; blockage of coastal power plant cooling intakes, forcing electricity shutdowns; damage to fish nets and contamination of catches; interference with acoustic fish assessments; mortalities among farmed fish; and reduced commercial fish abundance through competition and predation. although dense jellyfish aggregations are a natural feature of figure 6. fluxes of planktonic foraminifera in santa barbara basin sediments. top panel shows increased abundances of tropical- subtropical foraminifera in the 20th century. bottom panel shows no temporal trend in temperate-polar foraminifera in the 20th century. reprinted from field et al (2006), by permission of aaas.
Who came up with the notion of an epistemic community?
the notion of an epistemic community was first elaborated upon by haas (1992; 1992) and refers to a knowledge-based international community of experts, specifically a "... network of professionals with recognized expertise and competence in a particular domain and an authoritative claim to policy-relevant knowledge within that domain or issue area," (haas 1992: 3
What are the four defining features of epistemic communities according to Haas?
according to haas (1992) four defining features of epistemic communities are: a shared set of normative and principled beliefs; shared causal beliefs; shared notions of validity; and a common policy enterprise
Where does an epistemic community perspective draw our attention to?
an epistemic community perspective directs our attention to the professional culture and training of accountants, and the links between this culture and expertise and their beliefs about how to mitigate climate change, in turn reflected in detailed policy proposals
epistemic communities the notion of an epistemic community was first elaborated upon by haas (1992; 1992) and refers to a knowledge-based international community of experts, specifically a "... network of professionals with recognized expertise and competence in a particular domain and an authoritative claim to policy-relevant knowledge within that domain or issue area," (haas 1992: 3). the term was first used by john gerald ruggie in 1975, who coined it from foucault's notion of an episteme defined as "a dominant way of looking at social reality, a set of shared symbols and references, mutual expectations and a mutual predictability of interests". (ruggie, 1975: 570, quoted in verdun 1999). it was haas who fully developed the concept, based on his observations of scientists working on the ozone hole and involved in developing the montreal protocol. according to haas (1992) four defining features of epistemic communities are: a shared set of normative and principled beliefs; shared causal beliefs; shared notions of validity; and a common policy enterprise. what can be usefully 12 12 applied to the case of carbon accountancy is the idea of shared beliefs and values uniting a group of experts on a particular policy issue, which haas and others (gough and shackley 2001; litfin 1994) have argued stem from their professional culture and expertise. so an epistemic community perspective directs our attention to the professional culture and training of accountants, and the links between this culture and expertise and their beliefs about how to mitigate climate change, in turn reflected in detailed policy proposals. there is a notable contrast here with governmentality approaches which direct our attention more towards the day-to-day practices and techniques of government. nevertheless the two theories are complementary through their shared interest in expertise - whether that be associated with routine, widespread practices (governmentality) or collective pooling and application of knowledge (epistemic communities).
What are Dead valumes simalar to?
the effect is similar to the short circuits
Where do they occur?
they occur in corners of tanks, underneath weirs and in the internal side of curves
What are dispersed-flow reactors defined as?
d d u l
dead volumes. the effect is similar to the short circuits (reduction of the effective residence time), but the causes are a function of the physical characteristics of the system. they occur in corners of tanks, underneath weirs and in the internal side of curves. consequently, the dispersed or arbitrary flow is a non-idealised case, and can be used in practice to describe flow conditions in most reactors. an approximation of the dispersed flow is represented by the system of cells in series, described in item 8.4.4. the mixing conditions in dispersed-flow reactors are characterised by a dispersion number defined as: d d u l (8.28) where: d dispersion number (-) d axial or longitudinal dispersion coefficient (l2t- 1) u mean horizontal velocity (lt- 1) l reactor length (l) reaction kinetics and reactor hydraulics 347
What is the realistic necessary in this passage?
transport are necessary for the simulation of realistic levels
What is the realistic mixing?
realistic mixing between the tropics and extra-tropics in the ls and ms
Why is the improvements needed ?
improvements are needed in the ascent rate pro fi le below 50 hpa in the tropics and in the rate of mixing between the tropics and mid-latitudes
realistic representation of several key aspects of transport should be considered essential for credibility. they are 1. local conservation of chemical family mixing ratios e.g. cl<s187>y), 2. realistic tropical ascent in the ls, 3. realistic mixing between the tropics and extra-tropics in the ls and ms, 4. close agreement with all mean age diagnostics, that is, a high score for the average mean age grade, and 5. generation of an isolated lower stratospheric antarctic vortex. all of these aspects of transport are necessary for the simulation of realistic levels of vortex cl<s187>y. models that reasonably represent these essential physical processes have demonstrated the credibility necessary for prediction of future stratospheric composition. the evaluations presented in this chapter indicate transport improvement efforts in ccms should concentrate on the simulation of the tropical lower stratosphere. improvements are needed in the ascent rate pro fi le below 50 hpa in the tropics and in the rate of mixing between the tropics and mid-latitudes, which is currently too strong in most models. in addition, discrepancies between a model's residual vertical velocity in the tropics and its tracer derived velocities suggests possible problems with vertical diffusion or numerics.
What three aspects of climate to invasive plant species threaten?
invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and managed lands worldwide
How do invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems?
invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems by outcompeting native species and by altering
What is used to access current climate habitat?
we use bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess current climatic habitat
invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and managed lands worldwide. climate change may increase risk from invasive plant species as favorable climate conditions allow invaders to expand into new ranges. here, we use bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess current climatic habitat, or lands climatically suitable for invasion, for three of the most dominant and aggressive invasive plants in the southeast united states: kudzu pueraria lobata ), privet ligustrum sinense; l. vulgare ), and cogongrass imperata cylindrica ). we define climatic habitat using boththe maxentand mahalanobis distance methodologies, and we define the best climatic predictors based on variables that best 'constrain' species distributions and variables that 'release' the most land area if excluded. we then use an ensemble of 12 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to project changes in climatic habitat for the three invasive species by 2100. the combined methodologies, predictors, and models produce a robust assessment of invasion risk inclusive of many of the approaches typically used individually to assess climate change impacts. current invasion risk is widespread in southeastern states for all three species, although cogongrass invasion risk is more restricted to the gulf coast. climate change is likely to enable all three species to greatly expand their ranges. risk from privet and kudzu expands north into ohio, pennsylvania, new york, and new england states by 2100. risk from cogongrass expands as far north as kentucky and virginia. heightened surveillance and prompt eradication of small pockets of invasion in northern states should be a management priority. keywords climate change  invasive plant  bioclimatic envelope model  model ensemble  species distribution model invasive species and climate change are two of the most pervasive forms of ecosystem disturbance, and both will increasingly threaten biodiversity during the twenty-first century (millenium ecosystem assessment 2003 thomas et al. 2004 vitousek et al. 1996 ). invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems by outcompeting native species and by altering
What is the new way to analyze adaptations?
our framework proposes a new way to analyze adaptations from an action-oriented perspective. it emphasizes the interconnectedness of complex activities that address societal consequences of climate change along means-ends-chains. it is crucial for analysis to spell out the purpose of adaptations, and to consider that operators and receptors of adaptation may be different from the exposure units. the rigorous definitions provided in our contribution help elucidating prominent types of adaptation in a crisp way
What are direct or reflective adaptations?
depending on the research design or on practical considerations, it may be useful to consider only, e.g., direct or reflexive adaptations. we argue, however, that the framework is in particular fruitful to make precise statements about what adaptations are considered in a concrete context. this is not only crucial for terminological reasons, but also to operationalize adaptation assessments: the framework makes explicit statements about key variables for understanding the governance of adaptation. 19
our framework proposes a new way to analyze adaptations from an action-oriented perspective. it emphasizes the interconnectedness of complex activities that address societal consequences of climate change along means-ends-chains. it is crucial for analysis to spell out the purpose of adaptations, and to consider that operators and receptors of adaptation may be different from the exposure units. the rigorous definitions provided in our contribution help elucidating prominent types of adaptation in a crisp way. by combining the core concepts proposed in the framework in different ways, crucial barriers to adaptation can be deduced and precisely formulated. based on the framework one can define adaptations as individual or collective actions that are explicitly or implicitly intended to affect exposure units of climate change, or that indirectly achieve this end. however, this is still just one possible definition using the terms introduced by the framework. it leaves partially open what is to be considered as an adaptation. depending on the research design or on practical considerations, it may be useful to consider only, e.g., direct or reflexive adaptations. we argue, however, that the framework is in particular fruitful to make precise statements about what adaptations are considered in a concrete context. this is not only crucial for terminological reasons, but also to operationalize adaptation assessments: the framework makes explicit statements about key variables for understanding the governance of adaptation. 19
Is Canada's physical landscape sensitive to temperature changes?
climate warming raises a number of issues for transportation infrastructure that are unique to northern canada, where the most significant warming is expected and where the physical landscape is highly sensitive to temperature changes
To what extent are paved runways vulnerable to permafrost changes?
paved runways are likely to be among the structures most vulnerable to permafrost changes, as they readily absorb solar energy, further contributing to surface warming
How could milder winters affect the ice-road season?
milder winters, as projected under climate change, would shorten the ice-road season by several weeks(28)unless additional resources were available to apply more intensive and advanced construction and maintenance techniques
climate warming raises a number of issues for transportation infrastructure that are unique to northern canada, where the most significant warming is expected and where the physical landscape is highly sensitive to temperature changes. permafrost (ground that remains below 0degc for more than 12 consecutive months) underlies almost half of canada(27)and provides important structural stability for much of our northern transportation infrastructure. this includes all-season roads, airstrips and some short-line rail operations, such as the omnitrax line to the port of churchill in manitoba. degradation of permafrost as a result of climate warming will result in increased depth of the seasonal thaw layer, melting of any ice that occurs in that seasonal thaw zone, and warming of the frozen zone, which reduces its bearing capacity. paved runways are likely to be among the structures most vulnerable to permafrost changes, as they readily absorb solar energy, further contributing to surface warming. ice roads, which are constructed by clearing a route across frozen ground, lakes or rivers, play an important role in northern transportation, both for community supply and for resource industries (figure 2). although the operating window varies from location to location and year to year, these roads are typically used from november-december to march-april. milder winters, as projected under climate change, would shorten the ice-road season by several weeks(28)unless additional resources were available to apply more intensive and advanced construction and maintenance techniques. in 1998, higher than normal temperatures led to the closure of the winter road to fort chipewyan, and the alberta government had to help residents of the town obtain critical supplies.(29)a shorter ice-road season may be partially offset by a longer open-water or ice-free season in areas accessible by barge. however, given the current limitations of monthly and seasonal climate forecasts, planning for barge versus winter-road transport is likely to be imperfect. furthermore, the port infrastructure and services in some regions may be inadequate to handle increased use, and
High temperatures are not recommended because it initiates grow and _____________
high temperature is not recommended as it initiates growth and reduces sucrose accumulation
Temperatures that are too low can cause what?
ery low temperature, below 10 o c rupture cells and cause irrevocable deterioration
ripening requires low temperature levels to allow for sucrose accumulation, but very low temperature, below 10 o c rupture cells and cause irrevocable deterioration (humbert, 1968). the result of increasing net revenue with increased harvesting temperature should be seen with caution, because high temperature is not recommended as it initiates growth and reduces sucrose accumulation during the harvesting season (hunsgi, 1993). comparing the critical point analyses using the estimated model with optimal ranges of temperature and rainfall for sugar production based on agronomic research knowledge revealed interesting findings on the sensitivity of sugarcane production to cc in sa. the shaded areas in each of figures 2 7 indicate the areas of overlap between the results of this study (critical damage points) and optimum agronomic values. based on the optimum agronomic values, winter temperature should optimally be less than 22 o c (table 2). table 2: average, agronomic optimal ranges and the estimated critical damage points of temperature for south african sugarcane production
Do seasonal and traditional forecasts necessarily contradict one another?
by the last round this was less common as they had learned that the seasonal forecast could be used as additional information and did not have to compete with traditional forecasts
What can make the forecasts more useful to farmers?
 if learning is to occur, the forecast needs to have a higher profile so that people are aware of what it is and how they can use it
Which institutions control the forecasts?
improved awareness of the forecast will not happen if responsibility stays solely in the hands of meteorological institutions
in the first round, farmers sometimes said that they had traditional forecasts that they would trust more than the seasonal forecast. by the last round this was less common as they had learned that the seasonal forecast could be used as additional information and did not have to compete with traditional forecasts. this lesson is important for scientists and disseminators, who need to be reminded that they cannot expect forecast adoption at the initial inception phase, but rather that it is constant exposure that will increase the usage (klopper 1999). this is more likely to happen if feedback mechanisms, which integrate the users' needs into future forecast products, exist. in ha tlhaku the traditional forecast did not seem to conflict with the seasonal forecast. nevertheless, it is important to appreciate the role that traditional forecasts play as they can be used as an analogy to help forecast uptake (eakin 1999). it is this sensitivity to the cultural environment that is imperative for appropriate targeting and will advance the uptake capacity. seasonal forecasts have been operational in lesotho for five years, but there does not seem to be much use or awareness of the forecast at the national level and even less at the local level. if learning is to occur, the forecast needs to have a higher profile so that people are aware of what it is and how they can use it. improved awareness of the forecast will not happen if responsibility stays solely in the hands of meteorological institutions. cross-sectoral communication and development, which links the impact of the climate and the forecast across the various sectors, needs to be strengthened and used to identify local constraints (gibberd
What does the protocol used for the transformation and standardization of individual records make possible?
to make possible meaningful comparisons within and between records, a protocol was used for the transformation and standardization of individual records (power et al., 2010
What three items are included in the protocol?
this protocol included: (1) rescaling the values using a minimax transformation, (2) transforming and homogenising the variance using the box-cox transformation, and (3) rescaling values once more to z-scores (figure 5
What rescales charcoal values from each record to a range between 0 and 1?
the minimax transformation rescales charcoal values from each record to a range between 0 and 1 by subtracting the minimum charcoal value in the record from each charcoal value, and dividing by the range of values: ' ' 
a number of issues could influence the fidelity of overall charcoal influx as an indicator of fire activity. particularly, the large variability in natural processes involved in sedimentary charcoal deposition within lake or mire basins and in the methods used to quantify charcoal, results in a wide range in individual data values within and between sites. to make possible meaningful comparisons within and between records, a protocol was used for the transformation and standardization of individual records (power et al., 2010). this protocol included: (1) rescaling the values using a minimax transformation, (2) transforming and homogenising the variance using the box-cox transformation, and (3) rescaling values once more to z-scores (figure 5). the minimax transformation rescales charcoal values from each record to a range between 0 and 1 by subtracting the minimum charcoal value in the record from each charcoal value, and dividing by the range of values: ' ' -
Baseline define?
we build baseline statistical models of fire probability from the recent historical gcm reference period (1971-2000; hereafter ' baseline ' by relating recent global vegetation fires, as a dependent variable, to environmental variables depicting spatial patterns in resources to burn and atmospheric conditions conducive to fire activity
Does the year spread the short term?
the fire dataset used in this study spans a shorter time period (1996-2007) than the gcm reference period and did not completely overlap. one might question whether the fire period of record reflects a process at equilibrium with its environment, an important assumption of this modeling approach. however, supplementary analyses using only fire data for 1996 to 2000 (the years of overlap with climate norms), as well as other subsets of the 12-year period, resulted in models with very similar response function shapes and fire probability surfaces to those estimated from the full fire data set
The year that increased the use of global data?
to maximize the use of global data, we perform statistical analyses using the full 1996 to 2007 dataset. the modeling framework, based on presenceonly sampling, further alleviates potential issues related to temporal alignment between the fire and climate data. this is because a lack of fire observation in a given pixel is not considered a strict '' absence '' by the model and could still be predicted as fire-prone if the pixel shares environmental characteristics with other fireprone areas. in our dataset, a lack of fire observations in a potentially fire-prone pixel may be due to a lack of detection (e.g., due to cloud cover), the fire return interval being longer than the observation period (e.g., as seen in much of the boreal biomes), or the prompt extinguishment of wildfires before they attain a detectable size (i.e., due to successful initial attack). fire models are built using the maxent version
we build baseline statistical models of fire probability from the recent historical gcm reference period (1971-2000; hereafter ' baseline ' by relating recent global vegetation fires, as a dependent variable, to environmental variables depicting spatial patterns in resources to burn and atmospheric conditions conducive to fire activity. the fire dataset used in this study spans a shorter time period (1996-2007) than the gcm reference period and did not completely overlap. one might question whether the fire period of record reflects a process at equilibrium with its environment, an important assumption of this modeling approach. however, supplementary analyses using only fire data for 1996 to 2000 (the years of overlap with climate norms), as well as other subsets of the 12-year period, resulted in models with very similar response function shapes and fire probability surfaces to those estimated from the full fire data set. this consistent outcome strongly suggests that, at the temporal and spatial resolution of our study, the 12 years of fire observations provide a stable representation of fire in modern climates. to maximize the use of global data, we perform statistical analyses using the full 1996 to 2007 dataset. the modeling framework, based on presenceonly sampling, further alleviates potential issues related to temporal alignment between the fire and climate data. this is because a lack of fire observation in a given pixel is not considered a strict '' absence '' by the model and could still be predicted as fire-prone if the pixel shares environmental characteristics with other fireprone areas. in our dataset, a lack of fire observations in a potentially fire-prone pixel may be due to a lack of detection (e.g., due to cloud cover), the fire return interval being longer than the observation period (e.g., as seen in much of the boreal biomes), or the prompt extinguishment of wildfires before they attain a detectable size (i.e., due to successful initial attack). fire models are built using the maxent version
Where does the current TP of Mjosa lie?
the current tp of mjosa lies at the extreme low end of the range of values covered by the training set
What was the assessment of the present training set?
the present training set may not be entirely appropriate for mjosa and a separate (local) training set may be required to achieve higher accuracy in di-tp reconstructions (hobaek et al ., 2012
What is the median value for the data-set?
the median value for the data-set is 22 mg tp l-1
for mjosa, the di-tp concentrations track the pattern of temporal change recorded by the monitoring programme but are almost twice the measured values. while the model applied to this lake contains relatively large, deep lakes (> 10 m maximum depth) from northern and central europe, the median value for the data-set is 22 mg tp l-1 and the current tp of mjosa lies at the extreme low end of the range of values covered by the training set. furthermore, the great depth of the basin and the strong influence of the large alpine part of the catchment distinguishes it from other lakes in the model. it appears, therefore, that the present training set may not be entirely appropriate for mjosa and a separate (local) training set may be required to achieve higher accuracy in di-tp reconstructions (hobaek et al ., 2012).
Describe about savannas?
in savannas, where fire is an integral part of the ecosystem and therefore is essential for the maintenance of many plant and animal communities, the focus has ranged from zero intervention to complete suppression
How fire is ignited without fire management ?
without fire management, fires ignited in the late dry season develop sufficient intensity to burn for many days without control across large areas often damaging fire sensitive plant communities
Where the fire management applied first?
the present approach to fire management, applied particularly in the indigenous lands in northern australia, is to return to the management regimes practiced by the traditional owners prior to european intervention
in savannas, where fire is an integral part of the ecosystem and therefore is essential for the maintenance of many plant and animal communities, the focus has ranged from zero intervention to complete suppression. without fire management, fires ignited in the late dry season develop sufficient intensity to burn for many days without control across large areas often damaging fire sensitive plant communities. the present approach to fire management, applied particularly in the indigenous lands in northern australia, is to return to the management regimes practiced by the traditional owners prior to european intervention. in parts of australia, the knowledge of these strategies remains with the elders who are now working closely with the fire agencies to implement them.[171]the management strategy is to undertake low intensity prescribed burning in appropriate fire resistant communities during the early dry season to establish barriers to the progress of high-intensity late season fires. this leads to both reduced ghg emission[172,173]and biodiversity protection.[174]
What are synchronous?
u-231pa analyses have yielded 53 ages. the accuracy of the ages and the closedsystem behavior of the speleothems are indicated by interlaboratory comparisons, concordance of 230th and 231pa ages, and the result that all ages are in correct stratigraphic order
Global Glacier-What?
over the past 71 000 yr, the stalagmites have similar growth histories with alternating periods of relatively rapid and slow growth. the growth rates vary over more than two orders of magnitude, and there were three periods of rapid growth: 71-60 ka, 39-33 ka, and 24-12 ka. these growth-rate shifts correspond in part with global glacial-interglacial climatic shifts
What are wet intervals?
this wetter interval corresponds with the most recent period of increased growth rates in the speleothems, which is consistent with conditions necessary for speleothem growth. the temporal shift in wetness has been proposed to result
u-231pa analyses have yielded 53 ages. the accuracy of the ages and the closedsystem behavior of the speleothems are indicated by interlaboratory comparisons, concordance of 230th and 231pa ages, and the result that all ages are in correct stratigraphic order. over the past 71 000 yr, the stalagmites have similar growth histories with alternating periods of relatively rapid and slow growth. the growth rates vary over more than two orders of magnitude, and there were three periods of rapid growth: 71-60 ka, 39-33 ka, and 24-12 ka. these growth-rate shifts correspond in part with global glacial-interglacial climatic shifts. paleontological evidence indicates that around the last glacial maximum (20 ka), climate in central texas was cooler and wetter than at present. this wetter interval corresponds with the most recent period of increased growth rates in the speleothems, which is consistent with conditions necessary for speleothem growth. the temporal shift in wetness has been proposed to result
Expand UASB
upflow anaerobic sludge blanket
as a result of expanded knowledge, anaerobic sewage treatment systems, especially upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (uasb) reactors, have grown in maturity, occupying an outstanding position in several tropical countries in view of their favourable temperature conditions. their acceptance changed from a phase of disbelief, which lasted until the early 1980s, to the current phase of widespread acceptance. however, this great acceptance has frequently led to the development of projects and the implementation of treatment plants with serious conceptual problems. in this sense, the following chapters aim at providing information related to the principles, design and operation of anaerobic sewage treatment systems, with emphasis on upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactors and anaerobic filters. in principle, all organic compounds can be degraded by an anaerobic process, which is more efficient and economic when the waste is easily biodegradable. anaerobic digesters have been largely used in the treatment of solid wastes, including agricultural wastes, animal excrements, sludge from sewage treatment plants and urban wastes, and it is estimated that millions of anaerobic digesters have been built all over the world with this purpose. anaerobic digestion has also been largely used in the treatment of effluents from agricultural, food and beverage industries, both in developed and developing countries, as shown in table 23.1. also concerning the treatment of domestic sewage in warm-climate regions, a substantial increment has been verified in the use of anaerobic technology, notably by means of the uasb-type reactors. naturally, in this case, the application of
What does the USDA maintain?
the usda maintains the sole national database of food availability and food loss data in the us. the data series provides annual per-capita food production, waste and availability data for a full spectrum of food commodities in the united states, adjusted for food spoilage and other losses to closely approximate per-capita intake. food waste is further broken down into waste at the distribution, retail and consumer levels
What is the US Population Census 2009?
the us population estimate for 2009 (us census bureau, 2011) is used to convert the annual per-capita data for all commodities into national aggregate data. this study uses the most recent year in the food availability data series, which is 2009 as of this writing, and analyzes a total of 134 commonly consumed food commodities accounting for most of the food consumed in the us. these commodities include common meats, fish, shellfish, dairy products, oils and fats, eggs, sweeteners, nuts, legumes, grains, vegetables, fruits, and fruit juices
the loss-adjusted food availability data series from the us department of agriculture (usda ers, 2009) is the basis for the food waste analysis in this study. the usda maintains the sole national database of food availability and food loss data in the us. the data series provides annual per-capita food production, waste and availability data for a full spectrum of food commodities in the united states, adjusted for food spoilage and other losses to closely approximate per-capita intake. food waste is further broken down into waste at the distribution, retail and consumer levels. the us population estimate for 2009 (us census bureau, 2011) is used to convert the annual per-capita data for all commodities into national aggregate data. this study uses the most recent year in the food availability data series, which is 2009 as of this writing, and analyzes a total of 134 commonly consumed food commodities accounting for most of the food consumed in the us. these commodities include common meats, fish, shellfish, dairy products, oils and fats, eggs, sweeteners, nuts, legumes, grains, vegetables, fruits, and fruit juices. note that this data is for a very recent year compared to the 1995 data used by cuellar and webber (2010).
What were the three study areas?
in the three study areas (i.e., vancouver island, the okanagan, and the kootenays
What did the consent form outline?
consent form outlined the steps of participation and very generally described the study as one that investigated attitudes and beliefs about one's local area
What was the response rate of the surveys?
a response rate of 12.30
individuals for the main study were recruited by delivering letters to residents along randomly selected postal routes in the three study areas (i.e., vancouver island, the okanagan, and the kootenays). those interested in participating read the consent form and returned the survey in self-addressed stamped envelopes. the consent form outlined the steps of participation and very generally described the study as one that investigated attitudes and beliefs about one's local area, so that participants would not initially be aware of either the climate change or the place attachment aspects of the study. of approximately 2,700 surveys that were mailed out, 332 were returned, for a response rate of 12.30%. of these surveys, 5 were returned incomplete, 1 of which was sent back with no explanation. another was returned by a 92-year-old woman who stated that her responses would not be helpful given that she would not be around long enough to see the impacts of climate change. three blank surveys were sent back by individuals who do not believe in climate change. as one of them wrote, "there are many conflicting reports ad nauseam about climate change--and dishonesty in reporting--mother earth is just doing her thing."
Who promoted the Seasonal climate forecasts?
seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in africa
What is forecast?
this paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. the case study of a mountainous village in southern lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users - smallholder farmers - might make in response to the forecast
What is Adoption? Explain the case study?
however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. the case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups
seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in africa. the manifestations of this are still to be seen. this paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. the case study of a mountainous village in southern lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users - smallholder farmers - might make in response to the forecast. a participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. the case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups.
WHERE are atmospheric temperatures measured?
atmospheric temperatures are measured at surface sites and by networks of balloon-borne instruments and satellites
Where are ocean temperatures measured?
ocean temperatures are measured from ships, satellites, buoys, and subsurface floats
What is the name of the task that denotes changes not compatible w nautral variability?
for changes not compatible with natural variability, "attribution" denotes the task of determining what external factor is responsible
modern global climate models are essential tools for determining the cause of recent warming as well as for developing projections of future climate change.10a key component of the models is their ability to simulate realistically many aspects of climate. a half century of model development has led to a suite of global climate models that have become ever more comprehensive physically. figure 2 shows improvement in their spatial resolution over the past two decades.11 many kinds of observations have demonstrated that the climate is warming. atmospheric temperatures are measured at surface sites and by networks of balloon-borne instruments and satellites. those data all show warming. ocean temperatures are measured from ships, satellites, buoys, and subsurface floats. all show warming. in fact, most of the heat added to the climate system in recent decades is in the ocean. sea level is rising globally. mass loss from glaciers, arctic sea ice, and the ice sheets on greenland and antarctica also indicate a warming climate. an entire branch of climate science, known as detection and attribution, is devoted to determining whether any particular class of observations represents a significant departure from natural variability and, if so, to identifying the cause. "detection" here refers to the task of distinguishing changes in climate due to some external cause from changes that could be expected from known modes of natural climate variability such as el nino and la nina. for changes not compatible with natural variability, "attribution" denotes the task of determining what external factor is responsible. extensive research has shown that the dominant observed changes in the climate system are consistent with the responses expected from increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. they are inconsistent with any natural external forcing mechanisms such as volcanism or changes in the sun. the fingerprint of human activity is thus clearly revealed in the magnitude and pattern of the observed climate changes. another good example of recent progress in climate science is our improved understanding of the increase in sea level to be expected as earth continues to warm. sea levels rise in a warming world for several distinct reasons. one is simple thermal expansion of ocean water. another is melting glaciers, and a third is the contribution from the melting of the gigantic ice sheets on greenland and antarctica. the 2007 ipcc report projected a global average rise in sea level of 18-59 cm by the end of this century, depending on different models and different scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. the report stressed that thermal expansion contributed 70-75% of the central estimates for all the scenarios. it warned that melt water from the antarctic and greenland ice sheets might contribute significantly to sea-level rise. but the report's quantitative projections did not include those contributions because "understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate" (reference 1, page 14). in the years since 2007, however, climate science has advanced.12new technology has been brought to bear. for example, the grace gravity recovery and climate experiment satellites, launched in 2002, have used tiny variations in earth's gravity to infer changes in the masses of the antarctic and greenland ice sheets. several years of grace results and other data now show conclusively that both ice sheets are losing mass and contributing to global sea-level rise. the physical processes involved in mass loss are complex; they include surface melt, glacier flow, and snowfall. much remains to be learned. greenland and antarctica differ in important respects. but the contributions of both to sea-level rise are clearly increasing with time. if recent trends continue, their ice-sheet losses are expected to dominate global sea-level rise before the century ends. this century's sea-level rise is now estimated by some researchers to be as great as 1 to 2 meters.12 such conclusions must be effectively communicated to policy makers and the public.
Which factors of positionality in society play an important role in differentiated judgments of climate change by various groups?
positionality in society (as indicated by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and other social variables) may play an important role in these differentiated judgments of climate change by various group
The perception of the issue of climate based issues is strongly determined by what?
this means that perception of the issue is strongly determined by beliefs held by individuals about the functioning of nature and what would constitute a 'good life', fairness, and the appropriate role of individuals versus markets and the government
Can it be determined if those affected by climate change events, such as flood, are more likely than others to attempt mitigation of GHG?
evidence is inconclusive as to whether those directly impacted by events such as floods are as or more likely than others to attempt mitigation of ghg
in terms of perception, that is, the views and interpretations of the climate issue based on beliefs, experiences, and understanding, the evidence from in-depth studies reviewed here suggests that individuals' perceptions of climate change are strongly contextualized and encompasses other, not necessarily environmental, issues. positionality in society (as indicated by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and other social variables) may play an important role in these differentiated judgments of climate change by various groups, but evidence about how much of a difference it makes in different contexts is not uniform. the observed perceptions also explicitly accounts for ethical and moral dimensions, such as those relating to equity, development, and economic power. climate change is perceived through the lenses of pre-existing cultural worldviews. this means that perception of the issue is strongly determined by beliefs held by individuals about the functioning of nature and what would constitute a 'good life', fairness, and the appropriate role of individuals versus markets and the government. accordingly, evidence from developed countries on differences in individuals' perceptions converges on systematically varying levels of concern, the presence of skeptical views in all societies studied, and some degree of acceptance, ranging from solid to tempered. perception of climate change is also shaped by the framing used in climate change communications, particularly the imagery and stories employed, which can help increase knowledge and concern if the embedded emotions do not overly emphasize (i.e., manipulate) negative feelings such as fear, guilt or hopelessness. negative affective appeals seem largely counterproductive, especially when unaccompanied by messages that build listeners' sense of efficacy, hope, and optimism about the future. how climate change is framed can fundamentally affect how the issue is perceived. for example, appeals to parenthood and hero's stories, such as that found in the film ' the day after tomorrow ', can shape perception, but such demographic variables, including parenthood, do not show consistent evidence for people's concern and intentions to reduce personal emissions. moreover, concern about climate change does not necessarily stem from having been affected by the effects of climate change directly; in fact, evidence is inconclusive as to whether those directly impacted by events such as floods are as or more likely than others to attempt mitigation of ghg. some limited evidence suggests that individuals openly acknowledge a responsibility, either moral or civic, for addressing climate change. while one may hypothesize that notions of responsibility and motivation to act are similarly shaped by the deeply held cultural worldviews, further research is needed to discern the reasons.
What will a growth in population and wealth lead to in the southest of England?
growing population and wealth, especially in the southeast of england, will lead to greater demand for water, while supply will be reduced by summer droughts
What did the government introduce in 2000?
in 2000, government introduced a research programme for dams, with some of the survey work subcontracted to the transport research laboratory because of their expertise in checking earth embankments
What are insurance companies fearing will happen to properties near reservoirs?
meantime so long as dam condition reports and inundation maps remain secret, insurance companies may be increasingly likely to assume that properties near to reservoirs may be at risk of flooding from a breach, particularly in the case of older earth embankments, or concrete dams constructed more than 50 years ago
growing population and wealth, especially in the southeast of england, will lead to greater demand for water, while supply will be reduced by summer droughts. demand management controls such as water meters can only have a limited effect and groundwater ion is near its limit. it is therefore likely that more dams will need to be built, and in southeast england these are likely to be near urban areas. meanwhile, in 2000, government introduced a research programme for dams, with some of the survey work subcontracted to the transport research laboratory because of their expertise in checking earth embankments. more dams are likely to be built because of climate change, either retention dams as part of flood alleviation measures, or reservoirs for hydro power (in response to the moves away from fossil fuel power generation) or water supply (in response to increasing summer droughts). meantime so long as dam condition reports and inundation maps remain secret, insurance companies may be increasingly likely to assume that properties near to reservoirs may be at risk of flooding from a breach, particularly in the case of older earth embankments, or concrete dams constructed more than 50 years ago.
Over the past three decades what has the research been mostly of?
feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change has focused on their potential role as carbon sources or sinks
What is the conclusion?
that atmospheric co2 was growing more slowly than expected, on the basis of estimated emissions and ocean uptake, led to the idea of a "missing sink" (5) and to the hypothesis that increased plant photosynthesis in response to elevated atmospheric co2 might provide the explanation
What is showing in Figure 1?
one is modulating the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (ghgs
the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate have many dimensions. they also have many implications for sustainability, biodiversity, and the provision of ecosystem goods and services to people. all of these are potentially diverse, far reaching, consequential, and persistent. there are strong motivations for investments in understanding the full range of climate change impacts. the motivation is especially strong, however, for the ecosystem impacts that feed back to climate change, either amplifying or suppressing the initial forcing. throughout the history of climate change science, ecosystem feedbacks have played a major role in scientific and public debates, with some arguments that responses of terrestrial ecosystems largely eliminate the risk of dangerous climate change (1) and others that ecosystem responses increase that risk (2). both kinds of argument are supported by reasonable conceptual frameworks. a very large body of observational, experimental, and theoretical work increasingly allows these arguments to be replaced with detailed analysis. but there are still important gaps in our understanding. several of the potentially key mechanisms have not been studied in detail and are either absent from or sketchily represented in models. here, we summarize the available information and make a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts of poorly known mechanisms. climate change responses of terrestrial ecosystems can feed back to climate through two broad mechanisms figure 1 ). one is modulating the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (ghgs) (3), especially carbon dioxide (co2), methane (ch4), and nitrous oxide (n2o). the other is modulating the absorption or distribution of solar energy in the atmosphere or at the land surface (4). as with most of the processes in earth's system, ecosystem feedbacks are complicated by four important factors. first, they rarely occur in isolation, and their implications are typically amplified or suppressed by a wide range of other mechanisms. second, they occur over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, with very different implications on different scales. third, they potentially influence diverse aspects of climate, ranging from global-scale temperature to local precipitation intensity. and fourth, they are intimately involved with human actions, both as drivers and responders. over the past three decades, most of the research on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change has focused on their potential role as carbon sources or sinks. the conclusion that atmospheric co2 was growing more slowly than expected, on the basis of estimated emissions and ocean uptake, led to the idea of a "missing sink" (5) and to the hypothesis that increased plant photosynthesis in response to elevated atmospheric co2 might provide the explanation. after many years of study, the mystery of the missing sink
what do you required to publicly display the actual energy use?
under the epbd for larger public buildings display energy certificates (decs) are required to publicly display the actual energy use, carbon emissions and a rating on a scale from a to f for the building in use
What is the Asset Rating based on?
the asset rating is based on the predicted performance of the building calculated using standard methods
what is Modelling and why it is used?
modelling is a key fudging tool, that can, along with black box composite ' sustainability ' rating systems, be used to persuade a range of building clients into believing that the buildings they are purchasing will perform better in terms of greenhouse gas emissions than they do in reality
under the epbd for larger public buildings display energy certificates (decs) are required to publicly display the actual energy use, carbon emissions and a rating on a scale from a to f for the building in use. this is effective where the operational rating is displayed, showing how a building actually works, but far less effective where the asset rating is displayed. the asset rating is based on the predicted performance of the building calculated using standard methods. such models have been shown to be often extremely misleading to the extent that they can make a building appear to have a far better performance than in reality. modelling is a key fudging tool, that can, along with black box composite ' sustainability ' rating systems, be used to persuade a range of building clients into believing that the buildings they are purchasing will perform better in terms of greenhouse gas emissions than they do in reality. table 11.2 shows clearly how a range of high-profile and apparently well-informed clients has been fobbed off with very poorly performing buildings sold to them as ' green ' buildings by their architects and engineers, with their performance in reality being demonstrated using models that have patently failed to reflect their predicted design performance. there are no case-law pre cedents for clients to sue their architects over such breaches in trust, instruction and intention, but no doubt where negligence, or failure to meet the terms of the contract can be proven this will change. this may also be tested against chronic failure issues such as overheating and poor performance in other forms of extreme weather. clients will increasingly build into their building briefs the requirement to remain occupiable for certain periods during blackouts and other system failures in an attempt to improve the performance resilience of buildings they own or lease. over 18 000 uk buildings, including town halls, museums, schools and job centres, are being tested to discover their ratings. by october 2008 one in four buildings measured had scored an
What is the purpose of this study?
this study was designed to explore issues of climate change representation
Define the concept of climate icons?
the study was developed through the concept of climate icons, defined as "tangible entities which will be impacted by climate change, which the viewer considers worthy of respect, and to which the viewer can relate to and feel empathy for
this study was designed to explore issues of climate change representation in such a way that it allowed individuals to engage with the issue through their personal perceptions and values. the study was developed through the concept of climate icons, defined as "tangible entities which will be impacted by climate change, which the viewer considers worthy of respect, and to which the viewer can relate to and feel empathy for." the research reported here was the first part of a larger mixed qualitative-quantitative study (the subsequent stages of the research analyzed climate impacts on the selected icons and then evaluated individuals' cognitive and affective engagement; see o'neill, 2008). here, we concentrate on results from the
where has the substantial cooling had an effect?
the substantial cooling in certain regions such as europe during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth century often associated with the lia appears to be related to long-term changes in the nao (e.g., luterbacher et al. 1999, 2002; shindell et al. 2001; keigwin pickart 1999; jansen koc 2000; rimbu et al. 2003
what are the substantial cooling changes?
a pattern of atmospheric circulation variability that appears to vary on interannual and longer timescales
the substantial cooling in certain regions such as europe during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth century often associated with the lia appears to be related to long-term changes in the nao (e.g., luterbacher et al. 1999, 2002; shindell et al. 2001; keigwin pickart 1999; jansen koc 2000; rimbu et al. 2003), a pattern of atmospheric circulation variability that appears to vary on interannual and longer timescales. the prolonged tendency from much of the late sixteenth through early nineteenth century for the negative phase of the nao figure 5 is associated with a tendency for cold, continental air mass influences over much of europe during that time interval. recent work also suggests that the tropical pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics associated with the enso may play an important role in the large-scale variability of the climate in past centuries figure 5 ). statistical analyses show a significant influence of explosive volcanic eruptions on the enso based on volcano/el ni~no
What are the positive aspects of the spacial concentration of political and economic centres?
the spatial concentration of political and economic centres translates, on the one hand, into more resources and jobs
What is an example of the reliance on social security systems and institutions?
reliance on institutions and social security systems. an example is the large number of urban migrants, who have moved far away from social safety nets such as the (extended) family
What could citizens do instead of relying on public authorities to solve their problems?
many citizens thus rely on public authorities to solve their problems (including extreme weather events), rather than taking any risk reduction actions themselves
in this context, interconnections with the urban fabric are also manifold. space restrictions make it impossible for citizens to be self-subsistent or rely upon agriculture as their main income source. likewise, growing food (in combination with another job as a diversification strategy) is often not viable. the spatial concentration of political and economic centres translates, on the one hand, into more resources and jobs (although they are not equally accessible) and, on the other hand, to increased expectations and reliance on institutions and social security systems. an example is the large number of urban migrants, who have moved far away from social safety nets such as the (extended) family. many citizens thus rely on public authorities to solve their problems (including extreme weather events), rather than taking any risk reduction actions themselves (cf. leonardsen, 2012; wamsler and lawson, 2012). in sum, urbanization leads to a very characteristic urban fabric, ecosystem, climate, society, culture, economy and governance system. the physical, environmental, socio-cultural, economic and political features of cities influence each other. a comprehensive analysis of the city-disasters nexus needs to take all of these factors into account (figure 1).
What is NRI data?
the nri is a massive survey of soil samples and land characteristics from roughly 800,000 sites that is conducted in census years
Why is soil quality data is important ?
no study of agricultural land values would be complete without data on soil quality
What is the study about ?
we use the census data to examine the relationship between the three most important crops (i.e., corn for grain, soybean, and wheat for grain) yields and annual weather fluctuations
we utilize the variable on the value of land and buildings as the dependent variable in our replication of the hedonic approach. this variable is available in all six censuses. finally, we use the census data to examine the relationship between the three most important crops (i.e., corn for grain, soybean, and wheat for grain) yields and annual weather fluctuations. crop yields are measured as total bushels of production per acres planted. soil quality data no study of agricultural land values would be complete without data on soil quality and we rely on the national resource inventory (nri) for our measures of these variables. the nri is a massive survey of soil samples and land characteristics from roughly 800,000 sites that is conducted in census years. we follow the convention in the literature and use the measures of susceptibility to floods, soil erosion (k-factor), slope length, sand content, clay content, irrigation, and permeability as determinants of land prices and agricultural profits. we create county-level measures by taking weighted averages from the sites that are used for agriculture, where the weight is the amount of land the sample represents in the county. since the composition of the land devoted to agriculture varies within counties across censuses, we use these variables as covariates. although these data provide a rich portrait of soil quality, we suspect that they are not comprehensive. it is this possibility of omitted measures of soil quality and other determinants of profits that motivate our approach. climate and weather data the climate data are derived from the parameter-elevation
What was the Secretary of the Interior proposal?
the secretary of the interior, acting through reclamation, proposed adopting interim guidelines for allocating water in the colorado river lower basin (lower basin) and coordinated operations for lake powell and lake mead, particularly under drought and low reservoir conditions (referred to as "shortage criteria
What was the use of the Reclamation?
reclamation served as the lead federal agency for the purposes of compliance pursuant to the national environmental policy act of 1969 and development of the final eis on the proposed action (bureau of reclamation, 2007
How many Federal agencies assisted with environmental analysis and the preparation of the EIS?
five federal agencies assisted with environmental analysis and the preparation of the eis
the secretary of the interior, acting through reclamation, proposed adopting interim guidelines for allocating water in the colorado river lower basin (lower basin) and coordinated operations for lake powell and lake mead, particularly under drought and low reservoir conditions (referred to as "shortage criteria"). reclamation served as the lead federal agency for the purposes of compliance pursuant to the national environmental policy act of 1969 and development of the final eis on the proposed action (bureau of reclamation, 2007). five federal agencies assisted with environmental analysis and the preparation of the eis: the bureau of indian affairs (bia), u.s. fish and wildlife service (usfws), national park service (nps), western area power administration (western), and the united states section of the international boundary and water commission (usibwc). prior to this effort, the department of the interior did not have specific operational guidelines in place to address the operations of lake powell and lake mead during drought and low reservoir conditions (bureau of reclamation, 2007). the purpose of the proposed action was to improve reclamation's management of the colorado river by considering trade-offs between the frequency and magnitude of reductions of water deliveries, and considering the effects on water storage in lake powell and lake mead, and on water supply, power production, recreation, and other environmental resources; provide mainstream united states users of colorado river water, particularly those in the lower division states, a greater degree of predictability with respect to the amount of annual water deliveries in future years, particularly under drought and low reservoir conditions; and provide additional mechanisms for the storage and delivery of water supplies in lake mead to increase the flexibility of meeting water use needs from lake mead, particularly under drought and low reservoir conditions (bureau of reclamation, 2007). the adopted guidelines would remain in effect through 2026. * * *
What threatens the fires?
future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world
What climate standards are fire models based on?
fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 gcms (a2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010-2039 and 2070-2099
What is expected at the end of the century?
the end of the century, the magnitude and the agreement in direction of change are projected to increase substantially
future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (gcms). here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.5 8 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 gcms (a2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010-2039 and 2070-2099. from the ensemble results, we identify areas of consensus for increases or decreases in fire activity, as well as areas where gcms disagree. although certain biomes are sensitive to constraints on biomass productivity and others to atmospheric conditions promoting combustion, substantial and rapid shifts are projected for future fire activity across vast portions of the globe. in the near term, the most consistent increases in fire activity occur in biomes with already somewhat warm climates; decreases are less pronounced and concentrated primarily in a few tropical and subtropical biomes. however, models do not agree on the direction of nearterm changes across more than 50 of terrestrial lands, highlighting major uncertainties in the next few decades. by the end of the century, the magnitude and the agreement in direction of change are projected to increase substantially. most far-term model agreement on increasing fire probabilities 62 occurs at midto high-latitudes, while agreement on decreasing probabilities 20 is mainly in the tropics. although our global models demonstrate that long-term environmental norms are very successful at capturing chronic fire probability patterns, future work is necessary to assess how much more explanatory power would be added through interannual variation in climate variables. this study provides a first examination of global disruptions to fire activity using an empirically based statistical framework and a multi-model ensemble of gcm projections, an important step toward assessing fire-related vulnerabilities to humans and the ecosystems upon which they depend.
What are the climate change-conflict nexus ?
contribute in two ways to the existing literature on the climate change-conflict nexus. first, we conceptualize this nexus in terms of a two-stage process in which climatic variability affects the probability of violent intrastate conflict via climate effects on economic growth, and where these effects may be contingent on political system characteristics. second, we employ a measure of climatic variability that has advantages over those used in the existing literature, primarily because it takes into account the adaptation of economic activity to persistent climatic changes. our results suggest that climate variability, measured as deviations in temperature and precipitation from their past, long-run levels (a 30-year moving average), does not affect violent intrastate conflict through economic growth
What is the impact of climate change in  economic growth?
first, we conceptualize this nexus in terms of a two-stage process in which climatic variability affects the probability of violent intrastate conflict via climate effects on economic growth, and where these effects may be contingent on political system characteristics. second, we employ a measure of climatic variability that has advantages over those used in the existing literature, primarily because it takes into account the adaptation of economic activity to persistent climatic changes. our results suggest that climate variability, measured as deviations in temperature and precipitation from their past, long-run levels (a 30-year moving average), does not affect violent intrastate conflict through economic growth. this finding is important because the causal pathway leading from climate variability via (deteriorating) economic growth to conflict is a key part of most theoretical models of the climate-conflict nexus. while our empirical results provide no support for the climate change-economic growth-conflict pathway, further research is required before we can move towards closure of the debate. in particular, it would be very useful to improve on existing indicators of climatic variability, adaptation to climate variability, and relevant (from the viewpoint of violent conflict) economic performance
What does the empirical models suggest ?
finally, our results offer only very weak support for a mediatingeffectofpoliticalsystemcharacteristics.whereas some of our empirical models suggest that deteriorating economic growth can increase the likelihood of violent conflict in autocratic countries, this finding is fragile with regard to model specification. more research is needed to disentangle the mediating effects of political system characteristicsandsocial institutionsmore broadlyinthegrowth- conflict relationship and explore the channels through which they may be important for adaptation to increased climate variability and for conflict prevention
whether increasing local or regional climate variability due to large-scale, human-induced changes in the global atmosphere is associated with an increased risk of violent conflict remains contested, both among policymakers and in academic circles. in this article we contribute in two ways to the existing literature on the climate change-conflict nexus. first, we conceptualize this nexus in terms of a two-stage process in which climatic variability affects the probability of violent intrastate conflict via climate effects on economic growth, and where these effects may be contingent on political system characteristics. second, we employ a measure of climatic variability that has advantages over those used in the existing literature, primarily because it takes into account the adaptation of economic activity to persistent climatic changes. our results suggest that climate variability, measured as deviations in temperature and precipitation from their past, long-run levels (a 30-year moving average), does not affect violent intrastate conflict through economic growth. this finding is important because the causal pathway leading from climate variability via (deteriorating) economic growth to conflict is a key part of most theoretical models of the climate-conflict nexus. while our empirical results provide no support for the climate change-economic growth-conflict pathway, further research is required before we can move towards closure of the debate. in particular, it would be very useful to improve on existing indicators of climatic variability, adaptation to climate variability, and relevant (from the viewpoint of violent conflict) economic performance. for instance, in the absence of appropriate indicators for adaptation it remains difficult to estimate the effect of climatic variability on economic performance and hence on the probability of violent conflict. finally, our results offer only very weak support for a mediatingeffectofpoliticalsystemcharacteristics.whereas some of our empirical models suggest that deteriorating economic growth can increase the likelihood of violent conflict in autocratic countries, this finding is fragile with regard to model specification. more research is needed to disentangle the mediating effects of political system characteristicsandsocial institutionsmore broadlyinthegrowth- conflict relationship and explore the channels through which they may be important for adaptation to increased climate variability and for conflict prevention.
What are the economic sustenance of the indigenous people?
ndigenous peoples depend on natural resources for their livelihood and they often inhabit diverse but fragile ecosystems. at the same time indigenous peoples are among the world's most marginalized, impoverished and vulnerable peoples. while having hardly contributed anything to the cause of global warming, they are among the most heavily affected
How is the environmental impact for the indigenous people?
however, they have minimal access to resources to cope with the changes. for many indigenous peoples, climate change is already a reality. melting ice sheets in the arctic makes hunting sea mammals and fishing difficult and risky, erratic rainfalls reduce productivity of fields and pastures, storms and floods destroy crops and homes. while indigenous peoples' diverse and resilient livelihood systems have enabled them to survive in often harsh and forbidding environments, the speed by which climate is changing is putting to the test the abilities of indigenous communities to adapt
indigenous peoples depend on natural resources for their livelihood and they often inhabit diverse but fragile ecosystems. at the same time indigenous peoples are among the world's most marginalized, impoverished and vulnerable peoples. while having hardly contributed anything to the cause of global warming, they are among the most heavily affected. however, they have minimal access to resources to cope with the changes. for many indigenous peoples, climate change is already a reality. melting ice sheets in the arctic makes hunting sea mammals and fishing difficult and risky, erratic rainfalls reduce productivity of fields and pastures, storms and floods destroy crops and homes. while indigenous peoples' diverse and resilient livelihood systems have enabled them to survive in often harsh and forbidding environments, the speed by which climate is changing is putting to the test the abilities of indigenous communities to adapt. climate change however not only puts indigenous livelihood systems under stress, it also undermines indigenous human rights. for long it has been overlooked that climate change and the mitigation and adaptation schemes devised by governments and international organisations are often directly violating the rights of indigenous peoples. furthermore, little attention has been paid to the potentially invaluable contributions of indigenous peoples' traditional knowledge, innovations and practices in the global search for viable solutions for the many problems caused by climate change.
What is the argument in this section?
our argument starts with the assumption that climate change per se is unlikely to trigger civil conflict
What possibilities can reshape the productive landscape of entire regions?
however, it is possible that certain changes in rainfall and temperature, coupled with volatile weather patterns swinging between extremes, could reshape the productive landscape of entire regions and exacerbate food, water, and energy scarcities, as envisaged in the traditional resource scarcity (neo-malthusian) model
What is likely to occur in states where the capacity for dealing with climate-induced economic deterioration and associate conflict potential is low?
however, violence is likely to occur only in states where the capacity for dealing with climate-induced economic deterioration and associated conflict potential is low
our argument starts with the assumption that climate change per se is unlikely to trigger civil conflict. however, it is possible that certain changes in rainfall and temperature, coupled with volatile weather patterns swinging between extremes, could reshape the productive landscape of entire regions and exacerbate food, water, and energy scarcities, as envisaged in the traditional resource scarcity (neo-malthusian) model. consequently, we argue that climatic changes, through their effects on economic growth, might induce competition among groups inside a state and thus increase the likelihood of conflict. however, violence is likely to occur only in states where the capacity for dealing with climate-induced economic deterioration and associated conflict potential is low. we argue that democratic institutions, such as those imposing constraints on the executive, separating power, creating a large number of veto players in public policymaking, and safeguarding property rights, collectively serve to strengthen the rule of law and thus mitigate conflict. the remainder of this section elaborates on the pathway through which climate variability could, via its effects on economic conditions, lead to civil conflict.
What is a main assertion?
our main assertion is that, in a changing climate, to quantify and communicate risks, one should specify both a period of time, the design life period, and a probability of failure
What is the new version?
in particular, laurent and parey [2007] use a nonstationary version of the 100-year return level, and vogel et al [2011] introduce a ''flood magnification factor,'' which quantifies how the distribution of extreme events shifts from decade to decade. this is discussed in section 3. an always important aspect of risk measurement is quantification and handling of uncertainties in the risk measurements
How to facilitate?
to facilitate use of the new concepts, in section 5 we exhibit how one can use extreme value statistics to calculate the risk measures. however, it should be emphasized that the concepts in no way are tied to extreme value methods, and that there are many other ways to compute them. the examples assume independence between years, but again, the concepts are equally useful for dependent
our main assertion is that, in a changing climate, to quantify and communicate risks, one should specify both a period of time, the design life period, and a probability of failure. this probability should correspond to the desired risk of an extreme event; say, a water level that will lead to the flooding of a dike, or a rainfall that exceeds the capacity of a sewer system over the design life period. we propose a concept, design life level, which does this. in it one simply specifies the design life period and the probability of exceeding an extreme/hazardous level during this period. a complementary variant, the minimax design life level, instead specifies the maximal risk of failure during any one year in the design life period. in addition, risk plots, which show how the probability of failure changes over the design life period, are often useful, and sometimes also constant risk plots, which for each year in the design life period show the level that is exceeded with a given specified probability. nevertheless, the probability of failure over the design life period, as specified to determine the design life level, remains the most informative single quantity for risk characterization and communication. if one is not aiming primarily at design, but just wants to illustrate the extent of changes, simpler concepts may sometimes suffice. in particular, laurent and parey [2007] use a nonstationary version of the 100-year return level, and vogel et al [2011] introduce a ''flood magnification factor,'' which quantifies how the distribution of extreme events shifts from decade to decade. this is discussed in section 3. an always important aspect of risk measurement is quantification and handling of uncertainties in the risk measurements. this is discussed in sections 5 and 6. one (obvious) conclusion is that in a changing climate, it, already at the design stage, is important to plan for later modifications of constructions and for recurring reevaluation of risks. to facilitate use of the new concepts, in section 5 we exhibit how one can use extreme value statistics to calculate the risk measures. however, it should be emphasized that the concepts in no way are tied to extreme value methods, and that there are many other ways to compute them. the examples assume independence between years, but again, the concepts are equally useful for dependent
what did we conclude in the CSIRO Mk3.0 model on the Climate System Model?
these are consistent with the too weak total intraseasonal (2-128 days) variances in these models (fig. 4
what do we conclude about climate in ModelE Climate using CCSM, PCM1 and GISS-AOM Simulations?
the power is more evenly distributed. if the eastward signals and the westward signals are coherent with each other, they would form more standing oscillations rather than the predominance of eastward propagations seen in the observations
what conclusion do we reach about the spectra shown in the time simulators?
variance of precipitation in most models is smaller than in the observations. the space-time spectra of most models have much less power than is observed, especially at periods shorter than 6 days. in some model spectra westward over eastward power is too strong at mjo time scales, while in others the power is more evenly distributed
csiro mk3.0) also have less power than observed at periods longer than 6 days. these are consistent with the too weak total intraseasonal (2-128 days) variances in these models (fig. 4). second, in some model spectra (e.g., giss-er) westward over eastward power is too strong at mjo time scales, while in others (e.g., ccsm, pcm1, and giss-aom) the power is more evenly distributed. if the eastward signals and the westward signals are coherent with each other, they would form more standing oscillations rather than the predominance of eastward propagations seen in the observations. the characteristics of the raw antisymmetric spectra, in terms of total power and redness, are generally similar to fig. 6 and so will not be shown here. in summary, the total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation in most models is smaller than in the observations. the space-time spectra of most models have much less power than is observed, especially at periods shorter than 6 days. in some model spectra westward over eastward power is too strong at mjo time scales, while in others the power is more evenly distributed.
What does the agreement in trends suggests?
that the changes are driven by greenhouse gas increases, which are the same in both models
What does the increases SIE losses related to?
in both studies, increased losses were related to changes in ekman sea ice transport and a warming of the upper ocean in the cases with stratospheric ozone depletion
What does Smith et al 's study shows?
that study clearly shows that sie losses are greater in the simulation where the ozone hole does not recover
sie relative loss in both waccm and ccsm4 is 5.5%, and both models show between 8% and 9% loss in february and march. the agreement in trends suggests that the changes are driven by greenhouse gas increases, which are the same in both models. it illustrates that more than half of the sie losses over the last 150 years have happened after 1975 and that changes since then are larger in a model with a better representation of stratospheric ozone loss. this result is consistent with the modeling study of sigmond and fyfe (2010) that simulated a decrease throughout the year in sie in response to stratospheric ozone depletion. it is also consistent with the recent study of smith et al. (2012), which compares future simulations using waccm where ozone depleting substances (ods) were held fixed or allowed to decrease into the future. that study clearly shows that sie losses are greater in the simulation where the ozone hole does not recover. in both studies, increased losses were related to changes in ekman sea ice transport and a warming of the upper ocean in the cases with stratospheric ozone depletion. however, it should be noted that the predicted trends in waccm and ccsm4 are at odds with the observed trend over the past 30 years (turner et al. 2009).
What is the generalized formula?
from this equation one immediately derives at the numerator as well as at the denominator, the greatest term dominates when goes to infinity
What is the formula used for?
to compare different kinds of investments
What are the most profitable Horizon Discount rates?
50 1,74% 100 1,35% 200 0,80% 500 0,32% 1000 0,16
now, suppose one wants to equate this to a npv with a discount rate applied to expected returns: from this equation one immediately derives at the numerator as well as at the denominator, the greatest term dominates when goes to infinity, which implies the generalized formula. this generalized formula is particularly interesting when it is used to compare different kinds of investments. an investment that is most profitable in good times (such as, typically, a market investment) may have a low ratio in relatively good times in which is high, or in bad times in which is low. in both cases, the appropriate discount rate is greater than the lowest in contrast, an investment that is most profitable horizon discount rate 50 1,74% 100 1,35% 200 0,80% 500 0,32% 1000 0,16%
what does Rarefaction curves reached an asymptote at most study sites indicate?
rarefaction curves reached an asymptote at most study sites (appendix s5), indicating that the sampling effort was large enough to fully capture the composition of species assemblages in both cushion and open area habitats
what does founding  92% of sites with positive values of ISR indicate ?
at 92% of sites we found positive values of isr, indicating that at the majority of sites nurse cushion species enhance species richness at the whole community level (stotal
when The effects of cushion species on both interaction outcomes (RII) and increase in species richness (ISR) were not constant at the global scale?
the effects of cushion species on both interaction outcomes (rii) and increase in species richness (isr) were not constant at the global scale when all sites are considered, and showed interactions with other environmental drivers or indicators of richness
rarefaction curves reached an asymptote at most study sites (appendix s5), indicating that the sampling effort was large enough to fully capture the composition of species assemblages in both cushion and open area habitats. at 92% of sites we found positive values of isr, indicating that at the majority of sites nurse cushion species enhance species richness at the whole community level (stotal) (fig. 1a). likewise, at 81% of the sites we found a positive value for community rii, indicating that at most sites most species were associated with, and likely facilitated by, the nurse cushion species (fig. 1b). the effects of cushion species on both interaction outcomes (rii) and increase in species richness (isr) were not constant at the global scale when all sites are considered, and showed interactions with other environmental drivers or indicators of richness (fig. 2). vegetation cover - a good surrogate for local productivity in
where does Trade-off Analysis model used for?
the trade-off analysis model for multi-dimensional impact assessment is used to evaluate climate-change impacts and the viability of adaptation strategies by combining survey, experimental and modelling data [229
what does adaptation strategies include?
the most viable adaptation strategies included introduction of an improved maize variety or low-yielding, dual-purpose sweet potatoes in machakos and improved feed quantity and quality combined with livestock breeds adapted to increased drought and high temperatures in vihiga
what does agricultural decision-makers and policymakers  considers?
currently, agricultural decision-makers and policymakers rarely consider soc to be a major factor in agricultural management or land-use change, and the concept of multifunctional landscapes is an emerging idea in the science-based policymaking realm
thus, a combination of land-use practices contributed to c storage below and above ground as well as to multiple functions on the farm (figure 6). including the diverse agricultural landscapes in such studies leads to understanding of how management practices support ecological processes for c storage, and farmer participation supports identification of economically viable options for smallholder farmers trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation occur often in agricultural systems, notably in the allocation of scarce resources between competing activities. the trade-off analysis model for multi-dimensional impact assessment is used to evaluate climate-change impacts and the viability of adaptation strategies by combining survey, experimental and modelling data [229]. its next step is calculation of future land use, output, output price, cost of production and farm and household sizes for different climate-change and socioeconomic scenarios. the authors applied the model to the vihiga and machakos districts in kenya to simulate changes in crop and livestock productivity and the effects of climate change to 2030. climate change was projected to have a negative economic impact for 62% of farmers in machakos and 76% in vihiga, but these modelled effects could be partially offset by specific adaptation strategies. the most viable adaptation strategies included introduction of an improved maize variety or low-yielding, dual-purpose sweet potatoes in machakos and improved feed quantity and quality combined with livestock breeds adapted to increased drought and high temperatures in vihiga. in some cases, mitigation activities result in negative trade-offs, such as organic practices that increase soc offset net ghg emissions, leading to competition for feed for livestock or fuel, or even to decreases in average yields, thereby exacerbating forest conversion to agricultural land [122]. agroforestry, however, contributes to multifunctional landscapes that support mitigation and adaptation and can lead to improvements in livelihoods, whereby provision of fuel wood, timber, fruits and/or fodder is often associated with the cobenefits of improved soil fertility, water infiltration and belowand aboveground c sequestration [40,150]. currently, agricultural decision-makers and policymakers rarely consider soc to be a major factor in agricultural management or land-use change, and the concept of multifunctional landscapes is an emerging idea in the science-based policymaking realm. yet, the study of soc formation, its functions, its physical and chemical protection and identification of those fractions most susceptible to degradation is an area of active research. through various international conventions, this scientific knowledge is slowly becoming part of the science - policymaking interface relevant to climate-change mitigation and adaptation (for example, the united nations
What is happening when damages are proportional to income x 1)?
when damages are proportional to income x 1), the optimal carbon price is very similar to that obtained when we assume no income inequality at all within regions (what is called the " ricenordhaus " case in the legend of the fig. 1
What will doing significant increase in effort?
it is clear that a significant increase in effort (in the form of a higher carbon price) is associated with the reduction of x from 1 to 0 (in the latter case, all quintiles within a region bear an equal share of the regional damages
What kind of effort required with the inversely proportional damage distribution?
the effort required with the inversely proportional damage distribution x - 1) is even larger and similar to the " rice-stern " price
when damages are proportional to income x 1), the optimal carbon price is very similar to that obtained when we assume no income inequality at all within regions (what is called the " ricenordhaus " case in the legend of the fig. 1). it is clear that a significant increase in effort (in the form of a higher carbon price) is associated with the reduction of x from 1 to 0 (in the latter case, all quintiles within a region bear an equal share of the regional damages). the effort required with the inversely proportional damage distribution x - 1) is even larger and similar to the " rice-stern " price. the latter is the optimal price calculated in our implementation of the rice modelssssunder the discounting and inequality aversion assumptions of the stern review, which are quite different from those used by nordhaus and in our optimizations.{{
What is Informal interviewing?
informal interviewing lacks any kind of control or structure. it is usually used in the beginning of a field study when the researcher is getting familiar with the surroundings and local population
Explain  Unstructured interviewing?
unstructured interviewing is based on a plan with a central purpose, but is kept open for changes and gives the respondents the opportunity to freely answer the questions at their own pace and understanding. 
Explain  Semi-structured interviewing and  Structured interviewing?
semi-structured interviewing is more controlled and well prepared since it is based on an interview guide. the interview guide is a set of clear instructions, but the interviewer remains flexible to explore new information. these three methods were used in the beginning of the field work to become familiar with the area by letting the respondents describe issues of relevance for his/her life, such as history, agriculture, climate calendar, education, land use and land owning system. several visits were made to each respondent. - structured interviewing is the most controlled method. the respondents are given the exact same questions, e.g., a questionnaire. the idea is that by controlling the information that is given the answers can be systematically 196 johanna hageback et al
depending on the scope of the study, the interviewer determines the degree of control of the interview and answers, which can be categorized into four methods (bernard, 1995). - informal interviewing lacks any kind of control or structure. it is usually used in the beginning of a field study when the researcher is getting familiar with the surroundings and local population. - unstructured interviewing is based on a plan with a central purpose, but is kept open for changes and gives the respondents the opportunity to freely answer the questions at their own pace and understanding. - semi-structured interviewing is more controlled and well prepared since it is based on an interview guide. the interview guide is a set of clear instructions, but the interviewer remains flexible to explore new information. these three methods were used in the beginning of the field work to become familiar with the area by letting the respondents describe issues of relevance for his/her life, such as history, agriculture, climate calendar, education, land use and land owning system. several visits were made to each respondent. - structured interviewing is the most controlled method. the respondents are given the exact same questions, e.g., a questionnaire. the idea is that by controlling the information that is given the answers can be systematically 196 johanna hageback et al.
What is the proposal concerning the bank?
first of all, we propose that the bank establish a climate risk management knowledge base which could facilitate the familiarization of task managers and country planners with present and future climate risks, provide input into the cas, be a background for project screening, aid the design of risk management project components, as well as raise awareness about the relevance of incorporating climate risk management in bank work
Why should the information be freely accessible?
given that many other development agencies (as well as client country governments, companies and ngos) face similar climate risk management challenges, the information should be freely accessible
What will the knowledge base consist of?
the knowledge base would be web-based, and consist mostly of summaries of and links to information elsewhere, presented in such a way that it can easily be applied in a sectorand location-specific context by a task manager or country team
first of all, we propose that the bank establish a climate risk management knowledge base which could facilitate the familiarization of task managers and country planners with present and future climate risks, provide input into the cas, be a background for project screening, aid the design of risk management project components, as well as raise awareness about the relevance of incorporating climate risk management in bank work. the knowledge base would be web-based, and consist mostly of summaries of and links to information elsewhere, presented in such a way that it can easily be applied in a sectorand location-specific context by a task manager or country team. given that many other development agencies (as well as client country governments, companies and ngos) face similar climate risk management challenges, the information should be freely accessible.
How are planned adaptation options offered for the first sea level rise?
planned adaptation options to sea-level rise are usually presented as one of three generic options (ipcc czms, 1990; bijlsma et al., 1996; klein et al., 2001): 1 (planned) retreat - the impacts of sea-level rise are allowed to occur and human impacts are minimised by pulling back from the coast via land-use planning and development control
How are planned adaptation options offered for the second sea level rise?
2 accommodation - the impacts of sea-level rise are allowed to occur and human impacts are minimised by adjusting human use of the coastal zone to the hazard via increasing flood resilience (e.g. raising homes on pilings), warning systems and insurance
How are planned adaptation options offered for the third sea level rise?
3 protection - the impacts of sea-level rise are controlled by soft or hard engineering (e.g. nourished beaches and dunes or seawalls), reducing human impacts in the zone that would be impacted without protection. however, a residual risk always remains, and complete protection cannot be achieved. managing residual risk is a key element of a protection strategy that has often been overlooked in the past
planned adaptation options to sea-level rise are usually presented as one of three generic options (ipcc czms, 1990; bijlsma et al., 1996; klein et al., 2001): 1 (planned) retreat - the impacts of sea-level rise are allowed to occur and human impacts are minimised by pulling back from the coast via land-use planning and development control. 2 accommodation - the impacts of sea-level rise are allowed to occur and human impacts are minimised by adjusting human use of the coastal zone to the hazard via increasing flood resilience (e.g. raising homes on pilings), warning systems and insurance. 3 protection - the impacts of sea-level rise are controlled by soft or hard engineering (e.g. nourished beaches and dunes or seawalls), reducing human impacts in the zone that would be impacted without protection. however, a residual risk always remains, and complete protection cannot be achieved. managing residual risk is a key element of a protection strategy that has often been overlooked in the past. the three approaches are illustrated in figure 5.1.
What are the five aspects of organizational climate significantly correlated with subsequent productivity?
the right-hand column of table 1 shows that, for the full sample of respondents (managers and non-managers together), five aspects of organizational climate were significantly correlated with subsequent productivity: concern for employee welfare, skill development, reflexivity, innovation and flexibility, and performance feedback
Which companies were more productive in the following year?
companies that were perceived by employees to place more emphasis in those domains were more productive than others in the following year
When did climate scale served alone as the predictor?
at the first step of analysis, each climate scale served alone as the predictor, so that the values in column 2 (climate alone) are equivalent to correlations in the right-hand column of table 1
the right-hand column of table 1 shows that, for the full sample of respondents (managers and non-managers together), five aspects of organizational climate were significantly correlated with subsequent productivity: concern for employee welfare, skill development, reflexivity, innovation and flexibility, and performance feedback. companies that were perceived by employees to place more emphasis in those domains were more productive than others in the following year. it is important to examine those associations after statistical controls have been applied for prior company performance and for variations in size and industrial sector. results from hierarchical multiple regression analyses with those controls are summarized in table 2. at the first step of analysis, each climate scale served alone as the predictor, so that the values in column 2 (climate alone) are equivalent to correlations in the right-hand column of table 1. controls for previous productivity, company size and industry sector were entered at step 2, and beta weights after those controls are presented in column 3. (columns 4 and 5 will be examined later.) of the five scales of climate that predicted subsequent productivity in bivariate terms (concern for employee welfare, skill development, reflexivity, innovation and flexibility, and
Why did Chatham House and Glasgow University Media Group commission Ipsos MORI to undertake the first multicountry, multilingual survey to specifically solicit opinions on the relationship between meat/ dairy consumption and climate change?
in order to examine the extent and nature of the awareness gap globally
Where was the survey conducted?
the survey was conducted online in brazil, china,69 france, germany, india, italy, japan, poland, russia, south africa, the uk and the us
How many survey participants were in each country?
with a minimum of 1,000 participants in each country
in order to examine the extent and nature of the awareness gap globally, chatham house and glasgow university media group commissioned ipsos mori to undertake the first multicountry, multilingual survey to specifically solicit opinions on the relationship between meat/ dairy consumption and climate change. the survey was conducted online in brazil, china,69 france, germany, india, italy, japan, poland, russia, south africa, the uk and the us, with a minimum of 1,000 participants in each country. it tested public views on a range of issues including, but not limited to: consumers' motivations for increasing or decreasing their meat and dairy consumption; understanding of the different sources of ghg emissions, including livestock and other sectors; consumers' willingness to alter their behaviour as a means to reduce their environmental footprint; and attitudes towards a range of sources to which the public may turn for information on livestock and climate change. below we consider some of the key findings from the survey.
How many people die every year due to side-effects of global warming according to the 2003 study by WHO?
a study by scientists at the world health organization (who) in 2003 found that 160 000 people die every year from side-effects of global warming
Diseases are spread more common in colder or warmer climates?
diseases spread by animals such as rats and insects are more common in warmer climates
Why does a warmer climate lead to more epidemics such ws malaria?
in addition, the combination of increasing warmth and more standing water resulting from storms creates conditions conducive to epidemics, such as those of malaria, by providing breeding grounds for the insects and speeding up the life cycle as a result of the warmer conditions
a study by scientists at the world health organization (who) in 2003 found that 160 000 people die every year from side-effects of global warming, such as increased rates of death resulting from a range of causes from malaria to malnutrition, and predicted that the number would double by 2020. diseases spread by animals such as rats and insects are more common in warmer climates and issues such as the increasing scarcity of clean water with hotter, drier climates will also play a major part in increasing deaths from illness and malnutrition. in addition, the combination of increasing warmth and more standing water resulting from storms creates conditions conducive to epidemics, such as those of malaria, by providing breeding grounds for the insects and speeding up the life cycle as a result of the warmer conditions. 10 climate change will introduce three different types of health impact:
Who sponsored the first examples which include studies about a country level adaptation strategy?
early examples include studies sponsored by the world bank in bangladesh (smith et al., 1998) and the pacific (world bank, 2000). a somewhat broader exercise is world bank (2008), a recently initiated series of case studies that will deepen our understanding of adaptation costs in developing countries
What is the more significantly of the actual adaptation planning?
more significantly in terms of actual adaptation planning, the international community has embarked on a series of adaptation studies for the most vulnerable countries of the world, called the national adaptation programmes of action (napas). around 40 napas have so far been completed (see http://unfccc.int/adaptation/napas /items/4583.php
What is the aim of NAPA and the cost of the same?
the aim of the napas is to identify priority adaptations and initiate a process of planning, preparation and implementation in vulnerable developing countries. napas vary in quality and scope, with cost estimates ranging from less than $4 million in madagascar, comoros and the central african republic, to several hundred million dollars in ethiopia and the gambia, the only two countries to include extensive infrastructure investments
other than in sector studies, adaptation costs are increasingly studied at the country level. cost estimates usually emerge as part of a broader planning exercise to develop a country-level adaptation strategy. early examples include studies sponsored by the world bank in bangladesh (smith et al., 1998) and the pacific (world bank, 2000). a somewhat broader exercise is world bank (2008), a recently initiated series of case studies that will deepen our understanding of adaptation costs in developing countries. more significantly in terms of actual adaptation planning, the international community has embarked on a series of adaptation studies for the most vulnerable countries of the world, called the national adaptation programmes of action (napas). around 40 napas have so far been completed (see http://unfccc.int/adaptation/napas /items/4583.php). the aim of the napas is to identify priority adaptations and initiate a process of planning, preparation and implementation in vulnerable developing countries. napas vary in quality and scope, with cost estimates ranging from less than $4 million in madagascar, comoros and the central african republic, to several hundred million dollars in ethiopia and the gambia, the only two countries to include extensive infrastructure investments. elsewhere, napa priorities predominantly cover preparatory measures and capacity building, mostly on agriculture and water. as such, napas are a poor indicator of the ultimate adaptation expenditures in vulnerable countries, although they can give a rough indication of what the initial outlay (and sectoral priorities) may be as the global adaptation effort is ramped up.
Which is attributed primarily to anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing of the climate system?
global warming
What are the requirements of design and implementation of climate change mitigation and adaptation?
quantification of potential spatial heterogeneity in the aggregate climate response
observed late 20th century global warming has been attributed primarily to anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing of the climate system [e.g., intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) 2007], with further warming of approximately 1 to 6 \\x01 c likely to occur by the end of the 21st century ipcc 2007]. precisely how this long-term global warming will manifest at smaller spatial and temporal scales is a key question for understanding, avoiding, and/ or preparing for climate change. in particular, design and implementation of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies requires quantification of potential spatial heterogeneity in the aggregate climate response. therefore, there exists a need to identify climate change hotspots that are likely to be most responsive to anthropogenic changes in climate forcing, and to understand the mechanisms underlying the enhanced responsiveness in the hotspot regions. our analysis is focused on the continental united states (u.s.). the relative sensitivity of climate to greenhouse gas (ghg) forcing within the u.s. is important for a number of reasons. first, the u.s. encompasses a large continental area with a diversity of climatic regimes. in addition, it is home to a
What was found about the age of air results?
the age of air results were ambiguous, although two of the models which completed ensemble runs tend to support the kodera and kuroda argument of decreased upward motion during high solar forcing
What is emphasized by the improved performance of current models?
moreover the improved performance of current models emphasizes the need to obtain improved observational analyses of the solar cycle for accurate model validation
How many of the models tended to support the Kodera and Kuroda argument of decreased upward motion during high solar forcing?
although two of the models which completed ensemble runs tend to support the kodera and kuroda argument of decreased upward motion during high solar forcing
the age of air results were ambiguous, although two of the models which completed ensemble runs tend to support the kodera and kuroda argument of decreased upward motion during high solar forcing. the inconsistencies between models and between different transport measures need to be resolved by completing more simulations of the complete cycle with a larger suite of models, including age as a diagnostic. another possibility is to investigate the model results of generalized lagrangian mean vertical velocity or the tropical upwelling. however, this has not been explored because of the large interannual variability which for example was too large in amtrac to detect a solar cycle in tropical upwelling austin et al. 2007a]. moreover the improved performance of current models emphasizes the need to obtain improved observational analyses of the solar cycle for accurate model validation. acknowledgments. the satellite ozone solar cycle data were kindly supplied by b. soukharev and the ground based data were kindly supplied by v. fioletov. ja's research was administered by the university corporation for atmospheric research at the noaa geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory, csrnies research was supported by the global environmental research fund of the ministry of the environment of japan (a-071). the mpi-m, mpi-c and ingv acknowledge support of the scout-o3 integrated project which is funded by the european commission. katja matthes is supported by a marie curie outgoing international fellowship within the 6th european community framework programme. we thank the reviewers for their helpful comments on the material.
If errors do not come from different ethical parameters, where do they come from?
from a serious analysis of ethics, and from incorporating risk and analysis based on modern science
if we revert to d 0.1% and e 1, so as to place more ethical weight on future generations again, but we continue to ignore risk and uncertainty, the mean estimated cost of bau climate change is 3.5%, still well below the stern review's estimate. symmetrically, if we assume d 1.5% and e 2, but take account of uncertainty by calculating expected utility, the cost of climate change is 1.1%. neither ethics nor risk is alone sufficient to bridge the gap between the critics and ourselves. it is the interaction between the two that is crucial. this should be obvious: greater climate risks fall in the future, and it is only through affording future generations significant ethical weight that we would be motivated to protect them from these risks. thus we believe it is an error to suggest that our results, which estimate damages that are higher than in most of the previous literature, come only from the different ethical parameters. they come, as we have insisted throughout the discussion, from a serious analysis of ethics, and from incorporating risk and analysis based on modern science. much of the earlier economics literature has been remiss in its treatment of these key issues. similarly, it is equally a conceptual mistake, in our view, to omit ethics from the discussion, arguing instead that climate-change mitigation is purely a question of risk management. the benefits of mitigation, in terms of risks avoided, accrue many decades and even centuries after the cost is paid. if anything, these risk management approaches can blur the ethical trade-offs.
Explain requirements for measuring air temperature?
in the same vein, requirements for measuring air temperature for estimating urban heat stress differ from those for quantifying multidecadal trends in regional temperature
Requirements for biological variables?
similarly, requirements for biological variables such as the leaf area index, which measures the surface of leaf material in plant canopies, are quite different for constraining a climate model than for managing agricultural systems against a regional climate change backdrop
Define global climate models?
horizontal resolution of global climate models is generally on the order of 50 km and would require a leaf area index dataset at this order of spatial resolution, whereas, for agricultural management, details on a resolution as fine as 1 km or less maybe necessary
similarly, requirements for biological variables such as the leaf area index, which measures the surface of leaf material in plant canopies, are quite different for constraining a climate model than for managing agricultural systems against a regional climate change backdrop: horizontal resolution of global climate models is generally on the order of 50 km and would require a leaf area index dataset at this order of spatial resolution, whereas, for agricultural management, details on a resolution as fine as 1 km or less maybe necessary. in the same vein, requirements for measuring air temperature for estimating urban heat stress differ from those for quantifying multidecadal trends in regional temperature.
How do we define a â€œpatchâ€
we defined a patch as the area of habitat that potentially supports one subpopulation of the modeled species
How did we determine which patches were occupied?
to determine which patches were occupied at the start of the simulation, we overlaid the map of all potential patches at the first time step with a map of the occurrence records buffered by a radius equal to the midpoint between the low and high values for the maximum dispersal distance dmax, described below
Why do we use the term â€œpotentialâ€?
we use the term 'potential' to emphasize that even if an area may have enough contiguous suitable habitat to form a patch, it may remain unoccupied for a portion of, or the entire, duration of the simulation if it is too far from the occupied patches for the species to disperse to, or if other factors (such as demographic stochasticity) cause frequent local extinctions of the subpopulation occupying that patch
linking habitat and demography the potential patch structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of patches) and its change through time for each species were specified based on the time series of habitat suitability maps (see above) using the spatial data module in the ramas gis software package27,28. we defined a patch as the area of habitat that potentially supports one subpopulation of the modeled species. we use the term 'potential' to emphasize that even if an area may have enough contiguous suitable habitat to form a patch, it may remain unoccupied for a portion of, or the entire, duration of the simulation if it is too far from the occupied patches for the species to disperse to, or if other factors (such as demographic stochasticity) cause frequent local extinctions of the subpopulation occupying that patch. each patch consists of a cluster of grid cells that have habitat suitability values above a threshold and that are within a neighborhood distance of each other27. we set the habitat suitability threshold29 for each species such that no more than 20% of known occurrence locations were excluded from the map of all potential patches at the first time step. neighborhood distance, based on home range size, determines the minimum number of contiguous map cells needed to consider an area a patch. for our purposes, all species in these models had a neighborhood distance of one cell since the spatial resolution of our habitat maps were already larger than the home ranges of the species we considered. to determine which patches were occupied at the start of the simulation, we overlaid the map of all potential patches at the first time step with a map of the occurrence records buffered by a radius equal to the midpoint between the low and high values for the maximum dispersal distance dmax, described below). the carrying capacity function for patches was based on the total habitat suitability (sum of the habitat suitability values for all grid cells constituting a patch). we then scaled this function such that the initial abundance for all occupied patches at the
What are some of the water secgtor activities anticipated to be impacted by climate change?
these activities include: the supply of safe water to domestic, industrial and agricultural consumers (including for irrigation); the provision of sanitation and the removal and treatment of effluent; support of navigation; management of flood hazard (from drains, rivers, groundwater, overland flow and so on); measures to provide protection or reduce exposure; generation of hydropower; and the management of river flows and water levels to support agriculture, recreation and the provision of ecosystem services (such as support for instream and riverine ecosystems
One is one estimate of the total current expenditure on water infrastructure in developing countries?
one estimate (briscoe, 1999) gives a total annual expenditure of $65 billion in developing countries
Flood hazard management is anticipated to be impacted by climate change.  What are some sources of these flood hazards?
management of flood hazard (from drains, rivers, groundwater, overland flow and so on
the 'water sector' is very diverse, and climate change is anticipated to impact upon many activities. these activities include: the supply of safe water to domestic, industrial and agricultural consumers (including for irrigation); the provision of sanitation and the removal and treatment of effluent; support of navigation; management of flood hazard (from drains, rivers, groundwater, overland flow and so on); measures to provide protection or reduce exposure; generation of hydropower; and the management of river flows and water levels to support agriculture, recreation and the provision of ecosystem services (such as support for instream and riverine ecosystems). estimates of the total current expenditure on water infrastructure are uncertain; one estimate (briscoe, 1999) gives a total annual expenditure of $65 billion in developing countries for
When the initial version of this paper was presented?
the initial version of this paper was presented at the open meeting of the global environmental change research community, rio de janeiro, 6-8 october 2001
Who funded the research?
the school of geography and the environment, environmental change institute and the rhodes trust, university of oxford have funded this research
For what Ailsa Allen is thanked?
ailsa allen is thanked for her cartographic input
the initial version of this paper was presented at the open meeting of the global environmental change research community, rio de janeiro, 6-8 october 2001. the school of geography and the environment, environmental change institute and the rhodes trust, university of oxford have funded this research. ailsa allen is thanked for her cartographic input. the contributions from the people of ha tlhaku and care lesotho are gratefully acknowledged. emma archer, kenny broad, tom downing, tony patt, paul tracey and merridy wilson are thanked for their useful comments, as well as two anonymous referees. the conclusions reached are solely those of the author.
What are the initial two assumptions used as the basis in computating social welfare?
ssume that social welfare can be computed as the sum of where is the consumption level of individual what is important about this approach is that the function is assumed to be the same for all individuals
What additional assumption that is common in the economic literature was used in the utility function?
we will even adopt an assumption that is common in the economic literature, and gives a special form to the utility function: where can be interpreted as a coefficient of aversion for consumption inequality, and is the minimum level of consumption that is required to make utility positive
What risk was ignored for the sake of simplicity?
for the sake of simplicity we ignore the risk that future generations will not exist
as announced in the for simplicity we will provisionally adopt the utilitarian way of defining social welfare, and more precisely assume that social welfare can be computed as the sum of where is the consumption level of individual what is important about this approach is that the function is assumed to be the same for all individuals, which means in particular that there is no preference for earlier generations against future generations, and we consider that this function embodies the preferences of the evaluator about inequalities in consumption -which means that, in terms of consumption, the approach is prioritarian rather than utilitarian. we will even adopt an assumption that is common in the economic literature, and gives a special form to the utility function: where can be interpreted as a coefficient of aversion for consumption inequality, and is the minimum level of consumption that is required to make utility positive. with this function, the marginal utility is equal to which makes things quite simple. for the sake of simplicity we ignore the risk that future generations will not exist. this issue will be introduced later in the paper. suppose that is reduced by a small amount and which occurs periods later, is increased by a small amount is this good for social welfare? if the changes are infinitesimal, one can use the marginal utilities to evaluate the changes, and the variation in social welfare is then equal to this can be expressed in present value by dividing every term by the marginal utility of
How has the HOTHAPS team raised awareness of potential occupational health problems associated with climate change?
the hothaps team has identified this problem associated with climate change and raised awareness of this effect of climate change via annual conference presentations, published journal articles (16), book chapters (20, 21) and monographs (2, 22), in order to alert interested people to the potential occupational health problems that increased heat exposure might cause
What has the HOTHAPS team researched in order to inform society about the potential occupational health problems that increased heat exposure might cause?
the physiological and ergonomic mechanisms behind the effects of heat on humans have been reviewed (23, 24). a first global assessment of the impact of workplace heat on productivity has been carried out (25). plans for future hothaps work have been developed and fundraising for this research has started. current activities: methodological development, model design and study planning specific methods for improving heat exposure estimation (for instance the calculation of wbgt from weather station data) and the phep is under development and will be tested and promoted as a new tool for improved human exposure assessment. modelling of heat exposure and the related effects based on existing physiological models is providing first stage estimates of how the increasing human heat exposure may impact on different population groups in different parts of the world
achievements to date: problem definition and preliminary global assessments the hothaps team has identified this problem associated with climate change and raised awareness of this effect of climate change via annual conference presentations, published journal articles (16), book chapters (20, 21) and monographs (2, 22), in order to alert interested people to the potential occupational health problems that increased heat exposure might cause. the physiological and ergonomic mechanisms behind the effects of heat on humans have been reviewed (23, 24). a first global assessment of the impact of workplace heat on productivity has been carried out (25). plans for future hothaps work have been developed and fundraising for this research has started. current activities: methodological development, model design and study planning specific methods for improving heat exposure estimation (for instance the calculation of wbgt from weather station data) and the phep is under development and will be tested and promoted as a new tool for improved human exposure assessment. modelling of heat exposure and the related effects based on existing physiological models is providing first stage estimates of how the increasing human heat exposure may impact on different population groups in different parts of the world. preliminary global assessments of heat-related productivity loss or burden of disease are indicting how large the hothaps effect may become with climate change, and its geographical distribution. the different elements of health impact analysis (for instance burden of disease elements) are currently reviewed by the hothaps team and new models for calculating impacts will be developed and tested. besides wbgt, other relevant heat stress indices will also be reviewed. human variability in the heat  health relationships will be quantified by using statistical distribution concepts and incorporated into statistical models for impact analysis. the need for preventive interventions in occupational health is also under study, including assessments of the prevention provided by international guidelines and standards. the plan and protocols for local hothaps field studies in different parts of the world are being tested and funding for research is being sought. four pilot studies are currently being carried out in india, thailand and costa rica. future plans: field studies to assess local conditions in different countries, 2009
Which are the three main components of vulnerability?
according to the ipcc definition, the three main components of vulnerability are exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (see figure 7 for definitions
With what other approaches is the IPCC definition compatible?
the ipcc definition is also compatible with other approaches, such as the framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science elaborated by turner et al. (2003
According to the IPCC definition, exposure is internal or external to the system?
components of vulnerability in the ipcc definition, exposure is external to the system
according to the ipcc definition, the three main components of vulnerability are exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (see figure 7 for definitions). this definition is useful for vulnerability assessment and has been applied widely; for example, by metzger et al. (2005) in an operational framework for studying the vulnerability of ecosystem services and their users to global change (see box 12). the ipcc definition is also compatible with other approaches, such as the framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science elaborated by turner et al. (2003). components of vulnerability in the ipcc definition, exposure is external to the system, while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are internal. as an example, the three factors e, s and ac explaining vulnerability of forest growth to temperature changes could be, respectively, the increase in temperature, the sensitivity of tree dynamics to temperature, and the changes of ecosystem composition following changes in tree dynamics. in climate change studies, exposure is generally climatic, as expressed in the ipcc definition, but can be extended or modified to include other factors. first, socioeconomic exposure can also be considered in addition to climate, for instance globalisation (o'brien et al. 2004). second, depending on the system under study, exposure can combine climate change
What are the main factors impacting the altitudinal structure of sandfly occurrences?
temperature and humidity are also the main factors impacting the altitudinal structure of sandfly occurrences
What is the preferable breeding sites for the sandfly?
it is known that sandflies react very sensitive to wind speed and prefer breeding sites sheltered from wind [17-20
The range expansions for sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia have also been projected for what continent?
recently, range expansions for sandflies of the genus lutzomyia have also been projected for north america in the face of climate change
globally, the number of vector-borne infections in humans and animals increases rapidly, meanwhile causing almost one third of all cases of emerging infectious diseases in the old world, sandfly species of the genus phlebotomus serve as vectors for sandflyborne pathogens such as leishmania bartonella and several viruses (e.g. phlebovirus vesiculovirus and orbivirus [2-4]. sandfly-borne diseases and in particular visceral leishmaniasis are a main public health concern which demands more attention in science and policy while the spatial distribution of leishmaniasis seems to expand in southern parts of europe [7,8], first cases of autochthonous origin are recently reported from central europe [9-11], where this disease was not endemic in the past. the presence of sandflies as vectors is mainly regulated by the species' climatic requirements on temperature and humidity or soil moisture, respectively [3,12-15]. temperature and humidity are also the main factors impacting the altitudinal structure of sandfly occurrences it is known that sandflies react very sensitive to wind speed and prefer breeding sites sheltered from wind [17-20]. beyond that, high wind speed decreases or even excludes flight activity [17,21]. for the purpose of inferring geographic distribution for sandflies, the advantages of ecological niche models have been demonstrated on the example of lutzomyia species lutzomyia spp. in the new world for the first time, peterson and shaw integrated climate change scenarios in order to project future distribution of lutzomyia spp. in brazil. recently, range expansions for sandflies of the genus lutzomyia have also been projected for north america in the face of climate change for europe, surprisingly, only few studies estimated the risk of potential range expansions of sandflies in the face of climate change (e.g. [25,26]). the need for such studies is supported by the first sandflies catches in central europe. p. mascittii has been
How is climate change going to affect transportation systems in canada?
from a physical perspective, climate change is likely to create both challenges and new opportunities for transportation systems in canada
How are the northern landscapes affected by climate sensitivity?
the climatic sensitivity of northern landscapes has partly contributed to relatively greater attention, to date, being given to infrastructure and operations issues in northern canada
Will the transporation be manageable?
it appears at this time that the potential impacts of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable, providing that canadians are prepared to be proactive and include climate change considerations in investment and decision making
the canadian transportation system is massive, and its planning, construction and use endure over many decades. it is therefore necessary to consider how future economic, social and physical conditions, reflecting both future changes in climate and other factors, are likely to impact transportation, and what types of adaptation strategies would increase resilience of the system. from a physical perspective, climate change is likely to create both challenges and new opportunities for transportation systems in canada. until the late 1980s, there had been virtually no attempt to understand the implications of climate change for transportation, either in canada or globally. significant progress has since been made. the research community has begun the tasks of identifying and characterizing the potential impacts on those components of the transport system that are most vulnerable to a changed climate. these include northern ice roads, great lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure that is threatened by sea level rise, and infrastructure situated on permafrost. the climatic sensitivity of northern landscapes has partly contributed to relatively greater attention, to date, being given to infrastructure and operations issues in northern canada. this has occurred despite the fact that transportation in southern canada accounts for the vast majority of domestic and cross-border movement of freight, and more than 90 percent of domestic passenger trips. the limited work that has been done suggests that milder and/or shorter winters could translate into savings, but the state of knowledge is not adequate to make quantitative estimates. furthermore, higher temperatures and/or changes in precipitation, including changed frequencies of extreme climate events, may exacerbate other weather hazards or inefficiencies. nonetheless, it appears at this time that the potential impacts of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable, providing that canadians are prepared to be proactive and include climate change considerations in investment and decision making.
How will the loss of sea ice most likely affect the winter Atlantic jet stream?
a case in point is the projected response of the winter atlantic jet stream. it is understood that sea-ice loss will act to shift the jet stream equatorwards while tropical warming will act to shift the jet polewards, leading to a small net response15 23 24 26
According to the passage, what is the cause of climate change and the loss of sea ice?
arctic sea-ice loss is only one component of greenhousegasinduced climate change
Why is it important to think about the Arctic and the tropics together when considering climate change?
the tug-of-war has been used to reconcile model uncertainty in the intergovernmental panel on climate change projections for the winter atlantic storm track, with models that simulate more arctic warming tending to be those that also simulate more equatorward (or less poleward) shifts of the storm track and jet stream63 - 67. since society does not feel the influence of sea-ice loss in isolation from other aspects of climate variability and change, it is important to further consider whether this balance of effects is fairly constant in time, or whether for some periods one influence may exceed that of the other
arctic sea-ice loss is only one component of greenhousegasinduced climate change. a paradigm that has gained traction in recent years is that the climate response to sea-ice loss may partly counteract other aspects of the response to increased greenhouse gases. since two dominant characteristics of greenhousegasinduced climate change are pronounced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and in the arctic lower troposphere, this has been conceptualized as a 'tug-of-war' between the arctic and tropics. a case in point is the projected response of the winter atlantic jet stream. it is understood that sea-ice loss will act to shift the jet stream equatorwards while tropical warming will act to shift the jet polewards, leading to a small net response15 23 24 26. this decomposition only makes sense if the responses to greenhousegas-induced sea-ice loss (in the absence of increased greenhouse gases) and to increased greenhouse gases (in the absence of seaice loss) are separable and linearly additive, which they appear to be, at least in winter24. the tug-of-war has been used to reconcile model uncertainty in the intergovernmental panel on climate change projections for the winter atlantic storm track, with models that simulate more arctic warming tending to be those that also simulate more equatorward (or less poleward) shifts of the storm track and jet stream63 - 67. since society does not feel the influence of sea-ice loss in isolation from other aspects of climate variability and change, it is important to further consider whether this balance of effects is fairly constant in time, or whether for some periods one influence may exceed that of the other. the tugof-war is a useful perspective for the atlantic winter jet stream since the processes driving arctic warming are arguably distinct from those contributing to tropical warming. however, this concept cannot be generalized, as the regional responses to tropical warming and sea-ice loss may reinforce each other in other locations. the westerly wind response to arctic sea-ice loss enhances the response to tropical warming over the pacific sector in winter, for example23 24.
How will public health effects of extreme droughts and floods be reduced?
improved coordinated responses by international agencies
What was the Hyogo Framework for Action developed for?
broad-based vision of disaster risk reduction, encompassing governance, risk assessment and warning, knowledge and education, risk management and vulnerability reduction, and disaster preparedness and response
What will improved climate modeling help with?
constrain future expectations of extreme meteorological events in terms of frequency, scale, and temporal and spatial distribution
improved climate modelling will help to constrain future expectations of extreme meteorological events in terms of frequency, scale, and temporal and spatial distribution. developments in global monitoring, especially satellite technology and improved communications, can help to provide short-term alerts of windstorms and fl oods and early warnings of droughts and heatwaves, allowing eff ective emergency management planning and water resource and supply arrangements. improved coordinated responses by international agencies to extreme droughts and fl oods will help to reduce the public health eff ects of these events and ensure a rapid return to normality. the 2005 un world conference on disaster reduction and its output, the hyogo framework for action (hfa) 2005-15, articulated for the fi rst time a common international perspective on interventions and priorities. the hfa outlines a broad-based vision of disaster risk reduction, encompassing governance, risk assessment and warning, knowledge and education, risk management and vulnerability reduction, and disaster preparedness and response.165 this vision is perfectly applicable to the future threats presented by climate-change-related extreme events, and is now being developed to produce concrete indicators for disaster risk reduction and disaster resilience nationally and locally.166,167
how is the earth temperature determined?
the temperature of the earth is determined by the balance between energy input from the sun and its loss back into space
What atmospheric gases are known as greenhouse gases?
as water vapour, co2, ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide
Where does the carbon released by plants go after they die?
some of the plants are eaten by animals. whenever plants or animals die, they decompose and the retained carbon is released back into the carbon cycle, most returning into the atmosphere in gaseous form
the temperature of the earth is determined by the balance between energy input from the sun and its loss back into space. indeed, of the earth's incoming solar short-wave radiation (ultraviolet radiation and the visible spectrum), about a third is refl ected back into space. the remainder is absorbed by the land and oceans, which radiate their acquired warmth as long-wave infrared radiation. atmospheric gases--such as water vapour, co2, ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide--are known as greenhouse gases and can absorb some of this long-wave radiation and are warmed by it. this greenhouse eff ect is needed because, without it, the earth would be about 35degc colder.3 plants take up water and co2 and, through photosynthesis, use solar energy to create molecules they need for growth. some of the plants are eaten by animals. whenever plants or animals die, they decompose and the retained carbon is released back into the carbon cycle, most returning into the atmosphere in gaseous form. however, if organisms die and are not allowed to rot, the embedded carbon is retained. over a period of about 350 million years (but mainly in the carboniferous period), plants and small marine organisms died and were buried and crushed beneath sediments, forming fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas. the
Name four global-scale factors which can cause climate change in semi-arid locations?
planetary-scale internal dynamical processes, sst anomalies, well-mixed greenhouse effects and external forcing
Under Global Warming, has the temperature rise been evenly distributed over the globe?
no
semi-arid climate change may be caused by both globaland regional-scale factors. the global-scale factors include planetary-scale internal dynamical processes, sst anomalies, well-mixed greenhouse effects and external forcing. however, the effects of these factors on climate change in semi-arid regions might vary by region. in this section, we discuss the causes of the different behaviors in semi-arid climate changes over the eight typical semi-arid regions via the effect of planetary-scale internal dynamical processes and atmospheric-ocean interactions. first, the linear trend in the atmospheric circulations from the ncep/ncar re-analyses during the period of 1948-2008, including the geopotential heights (hgt) and winds at 850 hpa are examined, as indicated in figs. 9 and 10 comparing the influences of the westerly circulation and monsoon circulation on semi-arid areas in north america and east asia, north america is more strongly influenced by the westerly circulation, but east asia is more strongly influenced by the monsoon circulation (trenberth et al. 2000 wang and ding 2006 ). under global warming, the temperature rise has not been evenly distributed over the globe; the north pacific has cooled along 40degn (figure not shown; ipcc 2007 ), and the aleutian low has
What restriction was applied to the discussion to keep the discussion as transparent as possible?
to keep the discussion as transparent as possible, we will restrict ourselves mainly to the combination of only two models
What was the reason given for not presenting a generalization of the conclusions to more models?
a generalization of the conclusions to more models will not be presented here, but is straightforward by mathematical induction, since the combination of any number of models can be decomposed into a sequence of dual combinations
What does the analysis start with?
we start our analysis with the simple and idealized case of fully independent model errors and negligible internal variability sn 5 0 (section 3a
in this section, we apply the conceptual framework of eq. (1) to analyze how sm is affected by the weighted and unweighted combinations of multiple model output. to keep the discussion as transparent as possible, we will restrict ourselves mainly to the combination of only two models. a generalization of the conclusions to more models will not be presented here, but is straightforward by mathematical induction, since the combination of any number of models can be decomposed into a sequence of dual combinations. we start our analysis with the simple and idealized case of fully independent model errors and negligible internal variability sn 5 0 (section 3a), then we discuss the case when the model errors are not independent (section 3b), and finally we analyze the consequences to be expected if sn is nonnegligible (section 3c).
When did the stocks of anchovies move closer to shore?
beginning around april 1997, small pelagic fish stocks composed primarily of anchovy moved closer to shore in search of cooler, nutrient rich waters
What agency realized the anomalous warming of the country's coastal waters?
this led to a dramatic increase in catch that the peruvian oceanographic agency realized was related to the anomalous warming of the country's coastal waters
What organization implemented a fishing ban in some areas to help with the anomalous warming of the coastal waters?
based on this, the ministry of fisheries implemented a fishing ban in some areas
beginning around april 1997, small pelagic fish stocks composed primarily of anchovy moved closer to shore in search of cooler, nutrient rich waters. this led to a dramatic increase in catch that the peruvian oceanographic agency realized was related to the anomalous warming of the country's coastal waters. based on this, the ministry of fisheries implemented a fishing ban in some areas, but it was retracted just a few days later due to pressure from the fishing industry. the spike in catch vanished rapidly as fish began to migrate both vertically, below the range of the nets, and southward, into northern chile. the oceanographic agency increased biological monitoring and efforts at coordination with chilean counterparts. they also recommended intermittent closures of the fishery, but despite protests from some local scientists and from some international agencies, the ministry enacted special decrees allowing the extraction of non-traditional species, as well as the use of a normally illegal smaller size net mesh to fish traditional species. it is worth 420 kenneth broad et al.
What is the per cent of the world's agricultural land used to raise animals?
around 75 per cent of the world's agricultural land and 23 per cent of its arable land is used to raise animals, through growing crops for animal feed and through the use of pastures as grazing land
Why would make most sense to grow staple grains and oilseeds for direct human consumption and to restrict feed ingredients to the residues and processing co-products of these crops?
given the inefficiency of energy transfer in using crops and pasture for meat and dairy production, it would make most sense to grow staple grains and oilseeds for direct human consumption and to restrict feed ingredients to the residues and processing co-products of these crops
What is the per cent of of livestock production that can be considered an efficient use of land?
in total, only 30 per cent of livestock production might reasonably be considered an efficient use of land
around 75 per cent of the world's agricultural land and 23 per cent of its arable land is used to raise animals, through growing crops for animal feed and through the use of pastures as grazing land.52 given the inefficiency of energy transfer in using crops and pasture for meat and dairy production, it would make most sense to grow staple grains and oilseeds for direct human consumption and to restrict feed ingredients to the residues and processing co-products of these crops. however, residues and co-products provide only 14 per cent of livestock feed. in total, only 30 per cent of livestock production might reasonably be considered an efficient use of land.53
Name the natural forcing factors with a range of uncertainty?
there is also a range of uncertainty in natural forcing factors such as solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol amount
Who sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research?
the national center for atmospheric research is sponsored by the national science foundation
finally, the focus of this study has been on anthropogenic forcing. there is also a range of uncertainty in natural forcing factors such as solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol amount. it would of value to reduce uncertainties in these forcing factors as well. it would also be of great value to investigate the robustness of these results relative to the latest versions of coupled climate system models. however, given the fundamental physical relationship among climate response, climate forcing and sensitivity, i.e. (3), it is hard to imagine that these results do not apply to the latest coupled models. acknowledgments. the national center for atmospheric research is sponsored by the national science foundation. this work was supported in part by the department of energy office of science climate change prediction program.
How is a chift in technique demonstarated?
necessary to discern whether the production process which ends up being used pre-dates the price change
What are the components of technological change?
the more likely alternative is where a3 has been invented but is not a fully-fledged production process at t then the movement from a3 to a2 must involve development, diffusion, and scale-up of operations, all of which are components of technological change
What is the isoquant?
a snapshot of the techniques amongst which the producer is assumed to be able to shift frictionlessly over a certain time-frame
to classify an observed shift in technique it is necessary to discern whether the production process which ends up being used pre-dates the price change. several cases are possible in fig. 2 (a), a taxonomy for which is given in fig. 3 if a3 does not exist in period t then technical progress has clearly taken place. if it does exist, the question is whether a3 has been operated prior to t or is a still " new " in the sense of being available but unused. in the first instance, once a3 has not experienced intervening efficiency improvements, then the shift is clearly substitution. if a3 has never been used but has been available at sufficient scale, then whether or not substitution has occurred is ambiguous. but in any case this circumstance seems implausible, as it is unlikely that producers will build up sizeable capacity in unprofitable technologies only to leave them idle in expectation of uncertain future price changes. the more likely alternative is where a3 has been invented but is not a fully-fledged production process at t then the movement from a3 to a2 must involve development, diffusion, and scale-up of operations, all of which are components of technological change. the unit isoquant is thus a snapshot of the techniques amongst which the producer is assumed to be able to shift frictionlessly over a certain time-frame. the length of this interval (which in climate policy models is on the order of 5 - 10 years) distinguishes substitution -- which is
How were the impacts of parameter uncertainties on the main outcomes of this study tested?
the impacts of parameter uncertainties on the main outcomes of this study were tested by performing additional simulations with the hydropower model and thermoelectric power model assuming both an increase and decrease in parameter estimates of h, tlmax and [?]tlmax with 10% and 20
Which historical period's WFDEI meteorological dataset was used for sensitivity runsto assess the impacts of uncertainties in parameter estimates on absolute values of hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity?
sensitivity runs were done for the historical period 1981-2000 based on the wfdei meteorological dataset to assess the impacts of uncertainties in parameter estimates on absolute values of hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity
How does TImax impact the simulated changes?
tlmax will impact the simulated changes in hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity under climate change
sensitivity analyses were performed to study in more detail the impacts of uncertainties in the statistically-derived parameter estimates of hydraulic head h on simulated hydropower usable capacity and impacts of uncertainties in maximum permissible temperature of cooling water tlmax) and temperature increase of cooling water [?]tlmax) on simulated thermoelectric power usable capacity. the impacts of parameter uncertainties on the main outcomes of this study were tested by performing additional simulations with the hydropower model and thermoelectric power model assuming both an increase and decrease in parameter estimates of h, tlmax and [?]tlmax with 10% and 20%. sensitivity runs were done for the historical period 1981-2000 based on the wfdei meteorological dataset to assess the impacts of uncertainties in parameter estimates on absolute values of hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity. in addition, we performed sensitivity runs for all ten climate scenarios used in this study (see section 4) to estimate how parameter uncertainties in h tlmaxand [?]tlmax will impact the simulated changes in hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity under climate change.
What are the likelihood ?
the likelihood that a given tree will die may be higher in denser stands due to stronger competition for resources (das et al. 2011). to account for this phenomenon, we included tree basal area as a covariate in our model. basal area is an imperfect index of competition, as the number, size, and identity of competitors can also influence mortality
What are the likelihood ?
the likelihood that a given tree will die may be higher in denser stands due to stronger competition for resources (das et al. 2011). to account for this phenomenon, we included tree basal area as a covariate in our model. basal area is an imperfect index of competition, as the number, size, and identity of competitors can also influence mortality
What are the likelihood ?
the likelihood that a given tree will die may be higher in denser stands due to stronger competition for resources (das et al. 2011). to account for this phenomenon, we included tree basal area as a covariate in our model. basal area is an imperfect index of competition, as the number, size, and identity of competitors can also influence mortality
the likelihood that a given tree will die may be higher in denser stands due to stronger competition for resources (das et al. 2011). to account for this phenomenon, we included tree basal area as a covariate in our model. basal area is an imperfect index of competition, as the number, size, and identity of competitors can also influence mortality. however, basal area is a widely used and highly relevant single metric of competition, as it integrates both number and size of trees. we obtained values from a gridded data set of basal area imputed to a 30 m resolution for all forested areas of the state using extensive field plot data, remotely sensed imagery, and climate data (gnn data set; lemma group 2015; see appendix s1 for further details). the gnn data set also provides a modelled layer of tree density (trees per hectare), but validation tests found it to be substantially less accurate than the basal area layer (see appendix s1). a possible alternative explanation for observing greater absolute mortality in stands with higher basal area is simply that there are more trees available to die in those stands. if such a sampling effect were driving the association between basal area and mortality, however, we would expect a correlation between the total number of trees in a grid cell (from the gnn data set) and number of dead trees counted there (from the aerial survey data set). we found no such association r2= 0.0003 for 2015; fig. s3) and proceeded to use basal area as our indicator of tree competition.
What is the automotive industry analysis of the effects of cars on the environment?
automobile industry managers expressed fear that the climate issue touched emotional chords which could be exploited by activist environmental groups
What is environmental management about the automotive industry and climate change?
on the organizational level, the climate issue could strengthen the position of environmental groups, regulatory agencies, as well as nascent companies pursuing low-emission technologies. such coalitions could push government agencies to tighten regulations such as cafe (corporate average fuel economy) standards for automobiles or efficiency standards for power plants
What is the development of international institutions on climate change based on?
moreover, the issue was already spurring the development of international institutions, under the auspices of the united nations, to monitor and address global environmental problems. the growth of international environmental assessments and negotiations has also expanded the organizational capacity and legitimacy of ngos (wapner, 1995) and communities of scientific experts (haas, 1993
corporate political strategy 815 government relations put it, 'there are people who have cast the automobile as a villain. it is a puritanical view, that we are having too much fun, that we have too much mobility and freedom, that suburban sprawl is bad. they think we should all live in beehives.' automobile industry managers expressed fear that the climate issue touched emotional chords which could be exploited by activist environmental groups. on the organizational level, the climate issue could strengthen the position of environmental groups, regulatory agencies, as well as nascent companies pursuing low-emission technologies. such coalitions could push government agencies to tighten regulations such as cafe (corporate average fuel economy) standards for automobiles or efficiency standards for power plants. moreover, the issue was already spurring the development of international institutions, under the auspices of the united nations, to monitor and address global environmental problems. the growth of international environmental assessments and negotiations has also expanded the organizational capacity and legitimacy of ngos (wapner, 1995) and communities of scientific experts (haas, 1993).
How many years into the future is the analysis of projected costs and benefits extending?
the working group's analysis of the scc is based on projected costs and benefits extending 300 years into the future, as is our reanalysis
Is there ongoing controversy surrounding the consensus on an appropriate climate economics discount rate?
it seems safe to say that there is ongoing controversy and a lack of consensus on the appropriate discount rate to use in climate economics
What is one of the frameworks used to support the discount rate normally recommended for US government policy analyses?
it can be supported within either of the two frameworks used to determine the discount rate, the descriptive and prescriptive approaches (arrow et al. 1996
the working group's analysis of the scc is based on projected costs and benefits extending 300 years into the future, as is our reanalysis. across such spans of time, the discount rate is crucial to the bottom-line evaluation: the lower the discount rate, the more important the outcomes in later years will be. it seems safe to say that there is ongoing controversy and a lack of consensus on the appropriate discount rate to use in climate economics. the working group discusses the discount rate at length, justifying their choice of a fixed rate of 3 percent. this is one of the discount rates normally recommended for use in u.s. government policy analyses. it can be supported within either of the two frameworks used to determine the discount rate, the descriptive and prescriptive approaches (arrow et al. 1996). the descriptive approach calls for use of an appropriate market interest rate; the working group estimates the real risk-free rate of return, after tax, at 2.7 percent. the prescriptive
Explain ECV concept?
the ecv concept guides the specification of observing networks and archiving systems and the arrangements for monitoring their performance. however, meeting climate standards implies continuing investments in instrumentation and in the generation, validation, and intercomparison of datasets
How can we improve existing infrastructure?
existing infrastructure, often in support of weather forecasting, may need upgrading to meet the more exacting needs of some climate applications
What is Despite progress?
despite progress in recent years, much of the global infrastructure for acquiring and archiving climate observations and for delivering related climate datasets and services remains fragile and incomplete (gcos 2009; wmo 2011a
observing system planning and resourcing. by their very nature, ecvs (or quantities closely related to them from which ecv datasets can be derived) must be observed as a matter of priority, in a way that meets requirements. the ecv concept guides the specification of observing networks and archiving systems and the arrangements for monitoring their performance. however, meeting climate standards implies continuing investments in instrumentation and in the generation, validation, and intercomparison of datasets. existing infrastructure, often in support of weather forecasting, may need upgrading to meet the more exacting needs of some climate applications. despite progress in recent years, much of the global infrastructure for acquiring and archiving climate observations and for delivering related climate datasets and services remains fragile and incomplete (gcos 2009; wmo 2011a).
What is the analysis of recent studies on GCM?
many recent studies have examined the response of state-of-the-art gcms to changing greenhouse gas concentrations and the effects of changes in water cycles on regional scale hydrologic processes, ecosystems, and water resources. gleick (1999) summarizes a group of studies, performed for the usna and included in a special issue of the journal of the american water resources association (a second special issue of the same journal was published in april 2000
What would be a brief review of these studies?
these studies have been carried out at varying levels of spatial and temporal detail. some insight into the implications of the spatial and temporal resolution of the results on the nature of the conclusions drawn from each can be gleaned from a review of these studies
many recent studies have examined the response of state-of-the-art gcms to changing greenhouse gas concentrations and the effects of changes in water cycles on regional scale hydrologic processes, ecosystems, and water resources. gleick (1999) summarizes a group of studies, performed for the usna and included in a special issue of the journal of the american water resources association (a second special issue of the same journal was published in april 2000). these studies have been carried out at varying levels of spatial and temporal detail. some insight into the implications of the spatial and temporal resolution of the results on the nature of the conclusions drawn from each can be gleaned from a review of these studies. at continental spatial scales, felzer and heard (1999) examined future precipitation changes over north america simulated by two gcms; wolock and mccabe (1999) examined potential changes in mountain snow pack in the western u.s.; while frederick and schwarz (1999) examined socio-economic impacts to regional water supplies in the u.s. at somewhat smaller regional spatial scales, several studies focused on more detailed hydrology and water resources impacts (chao, 148 bart nijssen et al.
What changes could also contribute to significant warming in the high latitudes?
changes in high-latitude tropospheric cloud condensation nuclei could also contribute to significant warming in the high latitudes
What changes are thought to act as one of the possible triggering mechanisms for hydrothermal events such as the ELMO event?
changes in orbital parameters are thought to act as one of the possible triggering mechanisms for hydrothermal events such as the elmo event two million years after the petm but with similar geochemical characteristics (lourens et al. 2005
In order to simulate the past climate and climate variability in greater detail, what It would be desirable to include into future higherresolved simulations?
it would be desirable to include the aforementioned improved model parameterizations into future higherresolved simulations in order to simulate the past climate and climate variability in greater detail
(schmidt and schindell 2003)] or interactive vegetation. changes in high-latitude tropospheric cloud condensation nuclei could also contribute to significant warming in the high latitudes, as demonstrated by kump and pollard (2008) for the cretaceous. other mechanisms commonly invoked as possible contributors to increased warming at high latitudes are polar stratospheric clouds (sloan and pollard 1998; kirk-davidoff et al. 2002) or intensified tropical cyclone activity (korty et al. 2008). using more extreme orbital settings in the simulations, fig. 2 (see also sloan and huber 2001) might also increase summer surface temperatures in the high latitudes. changes in orbital parameters are thought to act as one of the possible triggering mechanisms for hydrothermal events such as the elmo event two million years after the petm but with similar geochemical characteristics (lourens et al. 2005). it would be desirable to include the aforementioned improved model parameterizations into future higherresolved simulations in order to simulate the past climate and climate variability in greater detail. acknowledgments. the graphics have been produced by chandrika nagaraj and vinit asher at uta. we thank jeff kiehl, stephen yeager, and keith lindsay at ncar for stimulating discussions and technical support. the comments by two anonymous reviewers greatly improved the quality of the manuscript. we thank chris scotese for providing an updated paleogeographic map for 55 ma as well as the pointtracker software. all model simulations were done on ncar computers, supported by nsf. the work is supported by nsf grant ear-0628336.
What we have to examine first?
we first examine the temporal drift of the 1990 control simulations
What does the positive values indicates?
positive values indicate more radiation entering the earth's climate system than exiting to space
Describe both models cooling types use?
for both models there is an initial cooling over the first several decades, with greater cooling in cm2.5 than cm2.1
we first examine the temporal drift of the 1990 control simulations. shown in fig. 1a are the time series of the annual mean, global mean net radiation at the top of the atmosphere. for both models there is a rapid initial increase to slightly more than 1 w m2 2, after which there is a slow decline over the following centuries (positive values indicate more radiation entering the earth's climate system than exiting to space). this imbalance is reflected in a long-term increase in ocean heat content. shown in fig. 1b are the time series of annual mean, global mean surface air temperature. for both models there is an initial cooling over the first several decades, with greater cooling in cm2.5 than cm2.1. as discussed
What effect is rapid climate change having on many species?
rapid climate change is leading to shifts in the distribution of many species
What has been the focus of the research so far?
predicting the impact of different climatechange scenarios on biodiversity has been the overwhelming focus of research effort so far
What debate is happening at present?
at present, debate is focused on whether to undertake managed relocation, in light of its potential risks and benefits
rapid climate change is leading to shifts in the distribution of many species17-22and will have economic and social consequences for human societies23,24. predicting the impact of different climatechange scenarios on biodiversity has been the overwhelming focus of research effort so far21,25; far less attention has been devoted to developing and choosing between adaptation actions for biodiversity management. managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization) is a controversial adaptation action for combating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity1-12and has recently been identified as a key priority for conservation research26. managed relocation involves physically moving species from habitat predicted to become unsuitable under climate change to locations where the habitat is predicted to become suitable, but where they have never occurred before. at present, debate is focused on whether to undertake managed relocation, in light of its potential risks and benefits2,5,9,11. while this debate continues, species are being moved in anticipation of the risks of climate change13,14. there is now an urgent need for a framework to underpin decisions about when to implement managed relocation, a framework that recognizes the potential for learning to reduce uncertainty and improve future decisions.
What two realms does the metabolic rift theory allows us to study?
the metabolic rift approach allows us to study natural cycles and economic processes, as well as the interaction between the two realms
What does the metabolic rift theory allow us to conceptualize and evaluate?
this theory allows us to conceptualize social relationships with nature and to evaluate empirical evidence
How does the metabolic rift theory relate climate change with capitalism?
in studying climate change, we extended marx's model of the metabolic rift, as developed by foster, to the biosphere to understand how capitalism has created and expanded a rift in the carbon cycle, which leads to climate change
our argument is that global climate change in the current era is a form of capitalistic metabolic rift. we illustrate how the theory of metabolic rift provides the means to grapple with both the quantitative and qualitative relationships in the nature-society dialectic. the metabolic rift approach allows us to study natural cycles and economic processes, as well as the interaction between the two realms. at the same time, this theory allows us to conceptualize social relationships with nature and to evaluate empirical evidence. in studying climate change, we extended marx's model of the metabolic rift, as developed by foster, to the biosphere to understand how capitalism has created and expanded a rift in the carbon cycle, which leads to climate change. geological and biological conditions removed large quantities of carbon from the biosphere by depositing them in the depths of the earth in the form of fossil fuel. coal and oil are highly concentrated energy forms. under the drive to expand commodity production for the accumulation
How frequently are the IPCC assessment reports published?
this research has culminated every 6 years in the publication of the assessment reports (ars) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc
What has become more evident each time a new AR has been published?
each time a new ar has been published the impact of burning fossil fuel has become more evident
In the IPCC AR4 report, what were the increase in globally averaged temperatures likely due to?
most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations'' (ar4, ipcc 2007
during the last decades the global climate research community has established the growing influence of human greenhouse gas emissions on earth's climate. this research has culminated every 6 years in the publication of the assessment reports (ars) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc). each time a new ar has been published the impact of burning fossil fuel has become more evident as reflected in the following two statements from the three most recent successive reports. ''the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate'' (2nd ar ipcc 1995]). ''there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'' (3rd ar ipcc 2001]). ''most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations'' (ar4, ipcc 2007]). the increasing knowledge about global warming has not yet been
What is Paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP)?
paralytic shellfish poisoning (psp) is the most globally widespread shellfish poisoning associated with algal toxins,175 and records of psp toxins in shellfish tissues (an indicator of toxin-producing species of alexandrium provide the longest time series in the united states for evaluating climate impacts
What does the 20th century warming trend  contributed
the 20th century warming trend also contributed to the observed increase in shellfish toxicity since the 1950s
What does Decadal patterns in PSP toxins in Gulf of Maine shellfish show
decadal patterns in psp toxins in gulf of maine shellfish show no clear relationships with long-term trends in climate,180, 181, 182 but ocean-climate interactions and changing oceanographic conditions are important factors for understanding alexandrium bloom dynamics in this region
paralytic shellfish poisoning (psp) is the most globally widespread shellfish poisoning associated with algal toxins,175 and records of psp toxins in shellfish tissues (an indicator of toxin-producing species of alexandrium provide the longest time series in the united states for evaluating climate impacts. warm phases of the naturally occurring climate pattern known as the pacific decadal oscillation co-occur with increased psp toxins in puget sound shellfish on decadal timescales.176 further, it is very likely that the 20th century warming trend also contributed to the observed increase in shellfish toxicity since the 1950s.177, 178 warm spring temperatures also contributed to a bloom of alexandrium in a coastal new york estuary in 2008.179 decadal patterns in psp toxins in gulf of maine shellfish show no clear relationships with long-term trends in climate,180, 181, 182 but ocean-climate interactions and changing oceanographic conditions are important factors for understanding alexandrium bloom dynamics in this region.183
what is the IMAGE IAM used for
used to construct the e1 scenario
how many concentraion pathways are examined for mitigation
we have only examined one possible concentrations pathway for mitigation
are the estimates of the study fully constrained
to keep warming below the 2 k target are not necessarily fully constrained by the estimates in this study
the results could also be used as a basis to explore the uncertainty ranges within the iam. in conclusion, based on results from these comprehensive modelling tools (including the image iam, used to construct the e1 scenario), it appears feasible to limit global warming to the 2 k policy target--but only with rapid de-carbonisation during the coming century. it is important to remember that we have only examined one possible concentrations pathway for mitigation, so the allowable carbon emissions at 2020, 2050, etc. to keep warming below the 2 k target are not necessarily fully constrained by the estimates in this study. a number of issues were encountered in designing and realising the es2 experiments, from which scientific and practical lessons can be drawn or which prompt future investigation:
The rural development zone of the Makulu-Barun national park?
this rural development project for the buffer zone of the makulu-barun national park contains a variety of components, including education, health, natural resource management and biodiversity conservation, gender balance, and conflict mediation between various stakeholders
Climate-related project risks?
current climate-related risks to the project are listed explicitly under "external factors": " the high altitude mountain environment of the projects generally exposed to natural hazards like heavy rainfall in the monsoon season, long lasting droughts during winter time, and landslides 
The project concrete measures are proposed to mitigate these risks?
no concrete measures are proposed to mitigate these risks. however, the project does promote soil protection and erosion control, measures which would reduce vulnerability to floods and droughts. climate change is not mentioned. d.2.18 thame valley village development (austrian development cooperation/eco himal)41
this rural development project for the buffer zone of the makulu-barun national park contains a variety of components, including education, health, natural resource management and biodiversity conservation, gender balance, and conflict mediation between various stakeholders. current climate-related risks to the project are listed explicitly under "external factors": " the high altitude mountain environment of the projects generally exposed to natural hazards like heavy rainfall in the monsoon season, long lasting droughts during winter time, and landslides ". no concrete measures are proposed to mitigate these risks. however, the project does promote soil protection and erosion control, measures which would reduce vulnerability to floods and droughts. climate change is not mentioned. d.2.18 thame valley village development (austrian development cooperation/eco himal)41
What are the estimates based on?
estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent
How was the survey respondents' attention measured?
we measured attention by asking individuals the following question after they had completed about 70 percent of the survey: "we are interested in learning about your preferences on a variety of topics, including colors. to demonstrate that you've read this much, just go ahead and select both red and green among the alternatives below, no matter what your favorite color is. yes, ignore the question below and select both of those options. what is your favorite color?" correct answers were coded as one and incorrect answers as zero
What estimates are shown in Fig. S2 "Effect of Agreement Dimensions on Public Support for Global Climate Change Cooperation in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States by Level of Attention" ?
this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement
fig. s2 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states by level of attention. this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement. estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent. the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension. we measured attention by asking individuals the following question after they had completed about 70 percent of the survey: "we are interested in learning about your preferences on a variety of topics, including colors. to demonstrate that you've read this much, just go ahead and select both red and green among the alternatives below, no matter what your favorite color is. yes, ignore the question below and select both of those options. what is your favorite color?" correct answers were coded as one and incorrect answers as zero.
How Uncertainties of climate projections are assessed?
uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models
How to  evaluate models?
observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup
Where weighted multimodel projections are provided?
we provide weighted multimodel projections of arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. the constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble
uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. we provide weighted multimodel projections of arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. the constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. we argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence fi nally justi fi es abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly.
This study analyzes the vulnerability of?
ethiopian farmers
Thus, investing in the development of the relatively underdeveloped regions of Somali and Afar, irrigation for regions with high potential, early warning systems to help farmers better cope in times of drought, and?
production of drought-tolerant varieties of crops and species of livestock can all reduce the vulnerability of ethiopian farmers to climate change
The Oromia region--a wide region characterized both by?
areas of good agricultural production
this study analyzes the vulnerability of ethiopian farmers to climate change based on the integrated vulnerability assessment approach using vulnerability indicators. the vulnerability indicators consist of the different socioeconomic and biophysical attributes of ethiopia's seven agriculture-based regional states. the different socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of each region collected have been classified into three classes, based on the intergovernmental panel on climate change's (ipcc 2001) definition of vulnerability, which consists of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. the results indicate that the relatively least-developed, semiarid, and arid regions--namely, afar and somali--are highly vulnerable to climate change. the oromia region--a wide region characterized both by areas of good agricultural production in the highlands and midlands and by recurrent droughts, especially in the lowlands--is also vulnerable. the tigray region, which is characterized by recurrent drought, is also vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change in comparison with the other regions. thus, investing in the development of the relatively underdeveloped regions of somali and afar, irrigation for regions with high potential, early warning systems to help farmers better cope in times of drought, and production of drought-tolerant varieties of crops and species of livestock can all reduce the vulnerability of ethiopian farmers to climate change. keywords: climate change, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, regional states of ethiopia 1 1
How was the SST data collected?
the sst data were collected by satellites, buoys, and ships
What did we use a long-term SST for?
we also used a long-term (50 years) average of annual sst for each colony to indicate the range of habitats used by these birds for breeding sites
What SST data was unavailable?
winter sst data were not available for seven thick-billed murre colonies located where the ocean was frozen all winter
research, the met office, uk). the sst data were collected by satellites, buoys, and ships. winter sst data were not available for seven thick-billed murre colonies located where the ocean was frozen all winter. for those colonies, we used july-september sst data, the period of least ice. these data were analyzed along with the winter data. annual and then period means were calculated for each colony site. period means were subtracted to find the change in sst between periods. this combination of winter sst at most colonies and summer sstat a few ice-bound colony sites were used throughout the paper to characterize changes in sst at murre colonies. however, we also used a long-term (50 years) average of annual sst for each colony to indicate the range of habitats used by these birds for breeding sites.
Two ways to adapt urban settlement?
first, changing and designing settlements that contribute less to the causes of climate change (eg, building energy effi cient and green housing). second, adapting settlements to be climate resilient and able to cope with the increasing risks of climate change
What are the issues of poor people in regards to energy
poor people who have access to energy currently do so in the worst way--ie, they have access to energy that is expensive, polluting, limited, and disadvantageous to women and children, both in terms of health risks and the time spent in the collection of energy fuels
What are the sources of energy that can improve the poor people health safety etc?
a need exists to improve access to secure, clean, reliable, aff ordable, and sustainable sources of energy that can provide essential services for a healthy, productive, and safe life, strengthening the positive relation between poverty reduction, health, energy security, and ecological sustainability
urban settlements, especially cities, need to be adapted in two ways. first, changing and designing settlements that contribute less to the causes of climate change (eg, building energy effi cient and green housing). second, adapting settlements to be climate resilient and able to cope with the increasing risks of climate change. the need to improve the lives of 2*4 billion people who rely on biomass for cooking and heating and 1*6 billion people who have no access to electricity presents a major developmental challenge in many developing countries.74 those without access to electricity for cooking, lighting, transport, communications, and refrigeration are exposed to adverse health risks. poor people who have access to energy currently do so in the worst way--ie, they have access to energy that is expensive, polluting, limited, and disadvantageous to women and children, both in terms of health risks and the time spent in the collection of energy fuels. reliance on unclean burning of coal and biomass fuels is a cause of much ill-health in developing countries.75 therefore, a need exists to improve access to secure, clean, reliable, aff ordable, and sustainable sources of energy that can provide essential services for a healthy, productive, and safe life, strengthening the positive relation between poverty reduction, health, energy security, and ecological sustainability. energy security is also an issue of growing concern to many governments in both developed and developing countries, and a potential source of international tension and confl ict.75
What is the work reported in this paper a direct result of?
the work reported in this paper is a direct result of a meeting held on 18{23 october 2001 at the aspen global change institute entitled `forest management and global change: near-term decisions and long-term outcomes
Who is gratefully acknowledged in the paper?
john katzenberger's leadership in organizing this meeting is gratefully acknowledged
What does R.A.B. work form part of?
the work of r.a.b. forms part of the climate prediction programme of the uk department of the environment, food rural a(r)airs (contract no. pecd 7/12/37
the work reported in this paper is a direct result of a meeting held on 18{23 october 2001 at the aspen global change institute entitled `forest management and global change: near-term decisions and long-term outcomes'. john katzenberger's leadership in organizing this meeting is gratefully acknowledged. the work of r.a.b. forms part of the climate prediction programme of the uk department of the environment, food rural a(r)airs (contract no. pecd 7/12/37). other support for this work was provided by nasa grants nag8-1511 and nag5-11370, and nsf lter grant deb 96-32852. we are very thankful to naomi pe~na for her recommendation to submit this paper. dallas staley completed her standard excellent editorial preparation of this contribution.
What is the purpose of this article?
the purpose of this article has been to show how these unrealistic assumptions might be relaxed and what would be the consequences of doing so, in terms of optimal emissions reductions and carbon prices, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and global mean temperature
What are the first and second assumptions?
the first assumption we have relaxed is that the underlying drivers of economic growth are exogenous and unaffected by climate change. instead we look at two models of endogenous growth, in which the damage from climate change affect the drivers of long-run growth, not just current output. the second assumption we have relaxed is that the damage function relating instantaneous climate damage to the increase in global mean temperature is only weakly convex. instead, we allow for the possibility that instantaneous damage increase rapidly, particularly once the global mean temperature reaches 4 - 6 deg c above the pre-industrial level. we suggest this representation is more plausible, given the scale of change that such warming could bring; at the very least, simulations based on weak convexity should not dominate our attention as they have come to do
What is the third assumption?
the third assumption we have relaxed is that the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions is moderate and moreover is precisely understood. very few, if any, commentators would explicitly claim that climate sensitivity is precisely understood, of course. nonetheless, most economic modelling is undertaken using only a single, central estimate of the climate sensitivity parameter, fixed in the centre of the distribution of available estimates from the science. we explore risk in this crucial parameter. overall, the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change in this modelling framework is the convolution of these three extensions
'to slow or not to slow' (nordhaus, 1991) and its subsequent development into the dynamic dice model have given us what seems to be a coherent and powerful framework for assessing the costs and benefits of climate-change mitigation. but it has in-built assumptions on growth, damage and risk, which together result in gross underassessment of the overall scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change (stern, 2013). this criticism applies with just as much force to most of the other iams that dice has inspired. the purpose of this article has been to show how these unrealistic assumptions might be relaxed and what would be the consequences of doing so, in terms of optimal emissions reductions and carbon prices, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and global mean temperature. the first assumption we have relaxed is that the underlying drivers of economic growth are exogenous and unaffected by climate change. instead we look at two models of endogenous growth, in which the damage from climate change affect the drivers of long-run growth, not just current output. the second assumption we have relaxed is that the damage function relating instantaneous climate damage to the increase in global mean temperature is only weakly convex. instead, we allow for the possibility that instantaneous damage increase rapidly, particularly once the global mean temperature reaches 4 - 6 deg c above the pre-industrial level. we suggest this representation is more plausible, given the scale of change that such warming could bring; at the very least, simulations based on weak convexity should not dominate our attention as they have come to do. the third assumption we have relaxed is that the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions is moderate and moreover is precisely understood. very few, if any, commentators would explicitly claim that climate sensitivity is precisely understood, of course. nonetheless, most economic modelling is undertaken using only a single, central estimate of the climate sensitivity parameter, fixed in the centre of the distribution of available estimates from the science. we explore risk in this crucial parameter. overall, the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change in this modelling framework is the convolution of these three extensions. we show that, with the models extended in this way, business-as-usual trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions give rise to potentially large impacts on growth and prosperity in the
Which one is affected by respiratory tract?
particulates in forest fire smoke can irritate the respiratory tract when they are inhaled
What are the things are affected by rural residents?
alkali dust emissions, resulting from wind erosion of dried salt lake beds, have caused nasal, throat, respiratory and eye problems for some rural residents on the southern prairies and could become more common if climate change results in further drying of saline lakes in this region
Which one is affected by natural hazard?
an increase in drought could also lead to increased concentrations of dust in the air due to wind erosion of soils,(38)particularly on the prairies, where dust storms presently represent a significant natural hazard
particulates in forest fire smoke can irritate the respiratory tract when they are inhaled.(45)forest fires could increase in frequency and severity in some regions of canada as a result of future climate change see 'forestry' chapter). an increase in drought could also lead to increased concentrations of dust in the air due to wind erosion of soils,(38)particularly on the prairies, where dust storms presently represent a significant natural hazard.(46)alkali dust emissions, resulting from wind erosion of dried salt lake beds, have caused nasal, throat, respiratory and eye problems for some rural residents on the southern prairies and could become more common if climate change results in further drying of saline lakes in this region.(46)
What do the current criteria for traumatic symptoms exclude? Exclude general experiences of racial and / or ethnic discrimination
although current criteria for traumatic symptoms exclude general experiences of racial and/or ethnic discrimination
What was examined in the present investigation? Associations between perceptions of racial and / or ethnic discrimination were examined
therefore, in the current investigation, we examined the associations among perceptions of racial and/or ethnic discrimination
What was the focus of the primary research question? The focus was on whether racial and / or ethnic discrimination would be predictive of trauma-related symptoms
our primary research question focused on whether racial and/or ethnic discrimination would be predictive of trauma-related symptoms
although current criteria for traumatic symptoms exclude general experiences of racial and/or ethnic discrimination, the notion of a positive association between trauma-related symptoms and racial and/or ethnic discrimination is plausible. therefore, in the current investigation, we examined the associations among perceptions of racial and/or ethnic discrimination, racial climate, and trauma-related symptoms in a sample of racially diverse college students. our primary research question focused on whether racial and/or ethnic discrimination would be predictive of trauma-related symptoms. given the nature of race relations in the united states, we believed it was important, first, to establish whether perceptions of discrimination differed across racial and/or ethnic groups and, second, to examine whether negative racial and/or ethnic experiences were, in fact, associated with trauma symptoms. we expected students of color to report more frequent experiences of racial and/or ethnic discrimination than the white students did. we also expected that for students of color, perceived racial and/or ethnic discrimination and negative racial climate would be positively associated with trauma-related symptoms.
What is fostering?
n doing so, the proposed adaptive management plan accounted for the concerns of different groups that had contributed to the board's consultation process, which appears to have helped legitimate the policy outcomes in the final board decision.13as a next step, our framework would guide policy makers to identify interventions that move from fostering expanded support to translating this support into increased standards and behavioral requirements. hence, these efforts are important, but our framework calls for much greater attention to unfolding trajectory that involves more than one or two steps. the bc carbon tax illustrates additional strategies for fostering a coalition of support but also the need for policy makers to further and consciously focus on unleashing a range of path-dependent processes
What is fostering?
n doing so, the proposed adaptive management plan accounted for the concerns of different groups that had contributed to the board's consultation process, which appears to have helped legitimate the policy outcomes in the final board decision.13as a next step, our framework would guide policy makers to identify interventions that move from fostering expanded support to translating this support into increased standards and behavioral requirements. hence, these efforts are important, but our framework calls for much greater attention to unfolding trajectory that involves more than one or two steps. the bc carbon tax illustrates additional strategies for fostering a coalition of support but also the need for policy makers to further and consciously focus on unleashing a range of path-dependent processes
What is fostering?
n doing so, the proposed adaptive management plan accounted for the concerns of different groups that had contributed to the board's consultation process, which appears to have helped legitimate the policy outcomes in the final board decision.13as a next step, our framework would guide policy makers to identify interventions that move from fostering expanded support to translating this support into increased standards and behavioral requirements. hence, these efforts are important, but our framework calls for much greater attention to unfolding trajectory that involves more than one or two steps. the bc carbon tax illustrates additional strategies for fostering a coalition of support but also the need for policy makers to further and consciously focus on unleashing a range of path-dependent processes
(carb) released a draft adaptive management plan that explicitly addresses unplanned adverse impacts from the regulations (california air resources board 2011 ). in doing so, the proposed adaptive management plan accounted for the concerns of different groups that had contributed to the board's consultation process, which appears to have helped legitimate the policy outcomes in the final board decision.13as a next step, our framework would guide policy makers to identify interventions that move from fostering expanded support to translating this support into increased standards and behavioral requirements. hence, these efforts are important, but our framework calls for much greater attention to unfolding trajectory that involves more than one or two steps. the bc carbon tax illustrates additional strategies for fostering a coalition of support but also the need for policy makers to further and consciously focus on unleashing a range of path-dependent processes. the bc government undertook two strategies that are consistent with our framework's attention to entrenching (dq2) and expanding (dq3) coalitions. first, it took advantage of its strong ties with business interests by developing a revenue neutral tax policy14which fostered swift entrenchment through increasing returns by benefiting a core constituency.15second, calibrations focused on sharing tax revenues with municipalities and school boards that had committed to carbon neutrality (harrison 2009 ). these policies, whether intended or not, created increasing returns logics aimed at an expanded population, which in turn, we can plausibly expect to have positive feedbacks on the original supporters. the decision to tie these taxes to school boards also created additional stickiness through coalition building since municipalities and schools would lose considerable revenues if the tax was ever rescinded. beyond these strategies, our approach offers additional ideas that the government could have considered. for instance, there is a plausible logic that the coalition would have been further nurtured by communicating to populations the increasing returns benefits they might enjoy, but of which they might not have been immediately aware. by making more obvious the link between the carbon tax increases and cuts in personal income taxes, such communication might have reduced pockets of societal opposition, which the opposition party exploited.16there is evidence these lessons are being applied by some policy makers adopting the framing of ''capanddividend'' rather than ''cap-and-trade.'' whether the efforts of the california air resources board and the bc tax will prove effective will, in part, be answered by whether other interventions can be nurtured to intersect in ways that create increasing returns and positive feedback processes within these jurisdictions, north america, and globally. the point here is that policy makers must not only work to influence multiple jurisdictions, but also multiple access points that might
What is explain about the FIG. 12?
fig. 12. portion of anomalous co2, radiative forcing, and surface temperature relative to 1500 yr after the start of the simulation
Explain about FIG.11.
fig. 11. temporal changes in carbon pools. differences in carbon relative to the control simulation for the 2560-pgc pulse experiment
Which one is change the continental weathering?
the sediment pool includes changes due to continental weathering. note the different scales along the time axis
fig. 12. portion of anomalous co2, radiative forcing, and surface temperature relative to 1500 yr after the start of the simulation. although sometimes indistinct in the figure, the radiative forcing and temperature curves are similar: both show longer time scales (decline less steeply) than co2 and time scales become longer as emissions increase. fig. 11. temporal changes in carbon pools. differences in carbon relative to the control simulation for the 2560-pgc pulse experiment. the sediment pool includes changes due to continental weathering. note the different scales along the time axis. 15 may 2009 e b y e t a l
What happened in 2003 that shows the increasing strength of solar radiation is also affecting even ' rainy ' Britain?
in september 2003 the uk government issued a warning to local authorities to remove sunbeds from every leisure centre in the country amid accusations that they are profiting from treatments that endanger the health of the public
Who raised the alarm that  sunbeds are contributing to the rise in the incidence of skin cancer?
members of the chartered institute of environmental health
How does exposure to ultraviolet rays and direct strong sunlight increases the risk of contracting skin cancer?
by damaging the immune system and causing premature ageing of the skin
we can also see indirect impacts around us in the news as the changing climate begins to affect our lives and deaths. the increasing strength of solar radiation is also affecting even ' rainy ' britain. in september 2003 the uk government issued a warning to local authorities to remove sunbeds from every leisure centre in the country amid accusations that they are profiting from treatments that endanger the health of the public. members of the chartered institute of environmental health, many of whom work for local councils, raised the alarm because they believe that sunbeds are contributing to the rise in the incidence of skin cancer. research published by the journal of the national cancer institute in 2002 shows a strong link between tanning lamps and skin cancer. they called, in their 2003 annual conference, for the inclusion of ' shade provision ' to become a requirement for all big planning developments. school playgrounds would be required to provide children and teachers with shaded areas. 11 surprisingly skin cancer is actually a major problem in the uk and exposure to ultraviolet rays and direct strong sunlight increases the risk of contracting skin cancer, by damaging the immune system and causing premature ageing of the skin. skin cancer is now the second most common form of cancer in the uk. there are 40 000 cases a year and the number of new cases annually rose by more than 90% in the 15 years between 1974 and 1989. three-quarters of these result from malignant melanoma. most skin cancers are not life-threatening but must be promptly removed surgically to avoid serious problems. there are no published statistics available on how many melanomas are linked to travel abroad or tanning lamps or are contracted owing to exposure to the sun in the uk. here again the combination of factors may place a crucial part, for instance holidays in spain, tanning at the health club, gardening in summer and overexposure to direct sun in the workplace. in highly glazed buildings care should be taken to ensure that staff are not sitting in direct sun during their working day.
What is the term "Pleasant weather" used to denote?
pleasant weather" is non-standard terminology; we use it to denote weather that is neither neither hot nor cold
What was the maximum flow rate for all the controllers chosen to be?
the maximum flow rate for all the controllers is chosen as 0 125 kg s
What three types of outside weather conditions were considered?
three types of outside weather conditions are considered: cold, hot and pleasant
the boundaries of each zone that are separated from the zone by the internal walls are assumed to have a constant temperature of 22 2*c. the external wall separates a zone from outside weather, and three types of outside weather conditions are considered: cold, hot and pleasant. figure 5 shows the temperature and humidity data for the cold (jan 14, 2011), hot (jul 31, 2011), and pleasant (mar 16, 2011) days in gainesville, fl, usa. "pleasant weather" is non-standard terminology; we use it to denote weather that is neither neither hot nor cold. the maximum flow rate for all the controllers is chosen as 0 125 kg s from 21
What will cause irreversible and non-substitutable damage to and loss of natural capital?
climate change will cause irreversible and non-substitutable damage to and loss of natural capital
What will harm future generations in a way that no consumption growth, however high, can compensate for it?
climate change will harm future generations in a way that no consumption growth, however high, can compensate for it
What review likes to portray the likely cost of keeping us within the 450-550 ppm threshold?
the stern review likes to portray the likely cost of keeping us within the 450-550 ppm threshold
compare and contrast this to the implications of failure to reduce emissions substantially for either of the two approaches toward non-substitutability of natural capital. in this case, climate change will cause irreversible and non-substitutable damage to and loss of natural capital via the multiple and complex channels so eloquently described in the review itself as well as in the recently published update to the report by the inter-governmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2007). in other words, climate change will harm future generations in a way that no consumption growth, however high, can compensate for it. now, that would be a tragedy and really represents cause for action. still, failing to tackle the non-substitutability issue may not matter if preventing climate change were cheap. unfortunately, it is not. the stern review likes to portray the likely cost of keeping us within the 450-550 ppm threshold as 'equivalent to a one-off increase in the average price level of 1%'.5 this sounds so innocuous to laypeople as to totally mislead them about the true cost dimension. what kind of person would not agree to decisive and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if all it takes to do so is that the prices of all goods
List the privatisation of public instruments.
marketing boards, farmer credit schemes, input subsidies, and extension programmes
When did  direct payment of Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development ?
direct payments to farmers of the organisation of economic cooperation and development amounted to $125 billion in 2006
direct payments to farmers of the organisation of economic cooperation and development amounted to $125 billion in 2006. for the past 25 years, many low-income countries had to adopt trade and agriculture reforms, including: dismantling or privatisation of public instruments such as marketing boards, farmer credit schemes, input subsidies, and extension programmes; shifting from food to export crops; and opening up to competition with the heavily subsidised agricultural businesses in developed countries.61 at the same time, development assistance to the agricultural sector has fallen. the aid of the organisation of economic cooperation and development to farmers in developing countries was only $3*9 billion in 2006, and now accounts for 3*4% of aid budgets, even though 75% of the world's poor people live in rural areas. water management will be crucial to future food security.126 co-management of water for agriculture and ecosystems is a precondition for ecological sustainability, requiring ways to value water socially, economically, and ecologically. geographic, satellite, and food price monitoring have an important role as early warning systems for famine and food insecurity, but a functioning primary health care system is probably the best and most eff ective way.
Which analysis approach is used to convey information about the statistics of rare events?
to convey information about the statistics of rare events we use the extreme value analysis approach
What does the extreme value analysis approach estimate?
to convey information about the statistics of rare events we use the extreme value analysis approach and express the estimated probabilities of extreme events in terms of t -year return values
What is the time T referred to?
the time t is referred to as the return period or waiting time
to convey information about the statistics of rare events we use the extreme value analysis approach and express the estimated probabilities of extreme events in terms of t -year return values. the t -year return value is defined as the threshold that is exceeded any given year with the probability 1/ t or, in a simplified interpretation, the threshold that is exceeded once every t years. the time t is referred to as the return period or waiting time. in order to estimate return values we apply the block maxima method (coles, 2001) for which the generalised extreme value (gev) distribution is the asymptotic distribution that describes the behaviour of block maxima with cumulative distribution
How many datasets and ecosystem did this information get pulled from?
202 soil respiration datasets from 50 ecosystem warming experiments across multiple terrestrial ecosystems
What are the two components of soil respiration?
heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration
Was the warming effect on atmosphere statistically detectable at first?
the warming effect on autotrophic respiration was not statistically detectable during the early warming years
despite decades of research, how climate warming alters the global flux of soil respiration is still poorly characterized. here, we use meta-analysis to synthesize 202 soil respiration datasets from 50 ecosystem warming experiments across multiple terrestrial ecosystems. we found that, on average, warming by 2 deg c increased soil respiration by 12% during the early warming years, but warming-induced drought partially offset this effect. more significantly, the two components of soil respiration, heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration showed distinct responses. the warming effect on autotrophic respiration was not statistically detectable during the early warming years, but nonetheless decreased with treatment duration. in contrast, warming by 2 deg c increased heterotrophic respiration by an average of 21%, and this stimulation remained stable over the warming duration. this result challenged the assumption that microbial activity would acclimate to the rising temperature. together, our findings demonstrate that distinguishing heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration would allow us better understand and predict the long-term response of soil respiration to warming. the dependence of soil respiration on soil moisture condition also underscores the importance of incorporating warming-induced soil hydrological changes when modeling soil respiration under climate change.
how are we estimating the effluent BOD?
for the estimation of the effluent bod concentration from the aerated lagoon, models similar to those employed for the activated sludge process can be adopted
what is the procedure used to estimate the effluent BOD?
a simplified version based on first-order reactions is presented. in these conditions, the estimation of the effluent concentration follows a procedure similar to that used for the facultative aerated lagoons (section 15.4
what would the influence of a hydraulic reime be?
the influence of the hydraulic regime of the pond can also be taken into consideration. however, the complete-mix model is usually adopted, since it offers a good approximation to the hydraulic behaviour of this type of aerated lagoon
for the estimation of the effluent bod concentration from the aerated lagoon, models similar to those employed for the activated sludge process can be adopted. in this chapter, a simplified version based on first-order reactions is presented. in these conditions, the estimation of the effluent concentration follows a procedure similar to that used for the facultative aerated lagoons (section 15.4). the influence of the hydraulic regime of the pond can also be taken into consideration. however, the complete-mix model is usually adopted, since it offers a good approximation to the hydraulic behaviour of this type of aerated lagoon. also in this case the effluent from the aerated lagoons is composed of dissolved organic matter soluble bod and suspended organic matter particulate bod (see section 15.4): bodtot bodsol bodpart (16.1) a) soluble effluent bod the estimation of the effluent soluble bod from the aerated lagoon can be done using the same formulas presented for facultative ponds and facultative aerated lagoons, which are a function of the hydraulic regime adopted for the reactor. as commented, the complete-mix model can be assumed. the value of the removal coefficient k is, in the case of complete-mix aerated lagoons, even higher than in the other pond systems. this is due to the larger biomass concentration in the pond. typical values of k are in the range of (arceivala, 1981): k 1 0 to 1 5 d- 1
How is AER classified taking into account all other plant nutrients (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium)?
note that, taking into account all other plant nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), aer i is classified as only marginally suitable for maize and many other crops by zambia's ministry of agriculture and cooperatives (maco, 2003
What did the anonymous referee mentioned about 2004?
an anonymous referee has mentioned that in 2004 the traditional practice of shifting cultivation chitemene) may have been coded as zero tillage
What is the percentage of maize plots rotated with non-leguminous crops in total?
in total, 58% of maize plots are rotated with non-leguminous crops
the averages of these variables for each aer are reported in table s1 of the supporting information to this paper (available online). 17note that, taking into account all other plant nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), aer i is classified as only marginally suitable for maize and many other crops by zambia's ministry of agriculture and cooperatives (maco, 2003). 18an anonymous referee has mentioned that in 2004 the traditional practice of shifting cultivation chitemene) may have been coded as zero tillage. we investigated the implications of this potential error on maize plots. chitemene is traditionally practiced in cassava, finger millet and bean systems in the northern and luapula provinces (chidumayo, 1999; kapekele, 2006). most households that reported zero tillage are in the eastern province where chitemen e is not the tradition. in 2008, when chitemene was coded explicitly, only seven maize plots in luapula and three maize plots in northern province have been coded under chitemene we have excluded the corresponding nine households from our analyses to prevent any potential confusion this issue could introduce. 19plot histories are covered in different ways in each rils survey used here. we define rotation using the information on crops planted on each plot one season before and one season after the survey season in 2004, and the two previous seasons before the season covered in 2008. most common maize rotations in our data include groundnuts, cotton and cassava. in total, 58% of maize plots are rotated with non-leguminous crops. the results remain the same when we restrict the rotation indicator to legume rotations only.
What is the BIOME3?
radiative forcings and climate feedbacks from atmospheric desert dust for last glacial maximum, preindustrial, current and doubled-carbon dioxide climates are calculated for the first time in one single modeling framework. included in these dust scenarios are changes in dust sources due to changes in vegetation using the biome3 equilibrium vegetation model haxeltine and prentice 1996] and glaciogenic sources in the last glacial maximum
Tell us about simulation?
we include in the model only the response due to vegetation changes, soil moisture and surface winds in this simulation, and ignore possible changes due to human land or water use [e.g., mahowald and luo 2003; mahowald et al. 2005]; estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing and climate feedbacks including land use are given in text s1, based on previous studies. comparisons of the dust distribution in this study to available observations is conducted in a separate paper mahowald et al. 2006]; and shows a good performance of the model
radiative forcings and climate feedbacks from atmospheric desert dust for last glacial maximum, preindustrial, current and doubled-carbon dioxide climates are calculated for the first time in one single modeling framework. included in these dust scenarios are changes in dust sources due to changes in vegetation using the biome3 equilibrium vegetation model haxeltine and prentice 1996] and glaciogenic sources in the last glacial maximum. we include in the model only the response due to vegetation changes, soil moisture and surface winds in this simulation, and ignore possible changes due to human land or water use [e.g., mahowald and luo 2003; mahowald et al. 2005]; estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing and climate feedbacks including land use are given in text s1, based on previous studies. comparisons of the dust distribution in this study to available observations is conducted in a separate paper mahowald et al. 2006]; and shows a good performance of the model. the net instantaneous topof-atmosphere radiative forcing differences due to dust between the last glacial maximum, pre-industrial and doubledcarbon dioxide climates and the current climate are  0.53,  0.43, and +0.14 w/m2, respectively. if we include the impact of glaciogenic sources, the net top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing difference between the last glacial maximum and the current climate increases in magnitude to  1.04 w/m2. in the future we simulate a 0.14 w/m2
How different majors are students entering the Engineering program enrolled in?
students enter the faculty of engineering enrolled in one of 12 undergraduate programs (i.e., "majors
What percentage of female students enrolled in STEM related majors is considered to be "critical mass?"
this classification assigned half of the majors to each category, is consistent with past research, which defines a "critical mass" of women in stem fields at approximately 20% carrigan, quinn, riskin, 2011 lott, gardner, powers, 2009-2010 
students enter the faculty of engineering enrolled in one of 12 undergraduate programs (i.e., "majors"). these majors organize students' experience, including what classes they take and with whom and represent important sources of self-identity (e.g., students might identify as "electrical engineers," not as engineers). we classified majors as "gender-diverse" if more than 20% of students enrolled in the major in the first year of the study were women (across cohorts, 32.57% of students enrolled in these majors were women; n  121) and as "male-dominated" otherwise (10.01% women, n  107). see table 1 this classification assigned half of the majors to each category, is consistent with past research, which defines a "critical mass" of women in stem fields at approximately 20% carrigan, quinn, riskin, 2011 lott, gardner, powers, 2009-2010 ), and tracked social stereotypes-- interviews and focus groups with upper year engineering majors confirmed that "male-dominated" majors were seen as more masculine than "gender-diverse" majors (e.g., one focus-group participant reported that chemical engineering [with 38.62% women in the first year of the study] was known as "fem eng.") see the online supplemental material for more information.
What is the downside of an accelerated development?
although an accelerated development potentially gives an important benefit for the insect species, this change in phenology might have some serious drawbacks
What is essential for developmental success?
in insect herbivores, phenological synchrony between host plant development and insect life stages is often essential for developmental success (van asch visser 2007
Why is it especially true for host-specific insects overwintering as eggs?
because the lower temperature thresholds for resuming development following winter might differ between the host plant and the associated insect, an increase in temperature is likely to affect their respective growth rates differently
although an accelerated development potentially gives an important benefit for the insect species, this change in phenology might have some serious drawbacks. in insect herbivores, phenological synchrony between host plant development and insect life stages is often essential for developmental success (van asch visser 2007). it is especially true for host-specific insects overwintering as eggs, such as a number of lepidopterans defoliating trees and shrubs, which need neonates hatching in spring to be precisely timed with plant budburst. because the lower temperature thresholds for resuming development following winter might differ between the host plant and the associated insect, an increase in temperature is likely to affect their respective growth rates differently. such a mismatch between vegetative budburst and hatching of larvae has already been observed over the past 2 decades for the system oak-winter moth, opheroptera brumata (l.), where the egg hatch date has advanced more than the bud burst date of pedunculate oak (visser both 2005). similar observations have been made for sycamore and its associated aphid, drepanosiphum platanoides koch. (dixon 2003). winter and spring temperatures unusually warm for the period 1989-1991 might also have disrupted the strict synchrony previously existing between hatching of larch budmoth larvae, zeiraphera diniana guenee, and larch foliage availability (esper et al 2007). this could be a major reason of the unexpected collapse observed during the 1990s in the cycle of this insect, which was regularly outbreaking every 8-10 years in the alps for hundreds of years (battisti 2008). further increase in temperature is predicted to induce long-term perturbations in the zeiraphera larch system, with a possible induced shift of intense outbreak areas towards higher altitudes (buntgen et al 2009). however, disrupted synchrony will lead to selection, and a response in phenology to this selection might lead to species genetically adapting to their changing environment. in the case of the winter moth cited above, van asch et al (2007) show that egg-hatching reaction norms are heritable and that sufficient genetic variation exists to predict a rapid response to selection, leading to a restoration of synchrony of egg hatch with oak bud opening.
What happens as average temperatures rise?
as average temperatures rise, the seasonal and geographic range of suitable habitat for cyanobacterial species is projected to expand
Give examples of where expansion of suitable habitat has expanded for cyanobacterial species?
for example, tropical and subtropical species like cylindrospermopsis raciborskii anabaena spp., and aphanizomenon spp. have already shown poleward expansion into mid-latitudes of europe, north america, and south america
What will also have an effect on cyanobacterial species?
increasing variability in precipitation patterns and more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events (which will increase nutrient loading) will also affect cyanobacterial communities
as average temperatures rise, the seasonal and geographic range of suitable habitat for cyanobacterial species is projected to expand.124, 125, 126, 127, 128 for example, tropical and subtropical species like cylindrospermopsis raciborskii anabaena spp., and aphanizomenon spp. have already shown poleward expansion into mid-latitudes of europe, north america, and south america.107, 129, 130 increasing variability in precipitation patterns and more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events (which will increase nutrient loading) will also affect cyanobacterial communities. if such events are followed by extended drought periods, the stagnant, low-flow conditions accompanying droughts will favor cyanobacterial dominance and bloom formation.103, 131
what would open new avenues for mitigative strategies?
an examination of the extent to which models and their elements, predict environmental impact (as opposed to proenvironmental behavior
What are the examples of models cited in the text?
nam27, tpb,19and vbn28
a more in-depth assessment of the conditions under which different models are most useful would help to strengthen what?
understanding of how various psychological constructs function to influence behavior
fifth, further evaluation of the conditions under which the different models are most useful would help to strengthen understanding of how various psychological constructs function to influence behavior. furthermore, an examination of the extent to which models and their elements, predict environmental impact (as opposed to proenvironmental behavior), would open new avenues for mitigative strategies. policies often are implicitly based on existing theories, but some current models (e.g., nam27, tpb,19and vbn28) include too few elements, and others (e.g., gmsd39) are so inclusive that they are difficult to test, although they can serve as the basis for discussions of policy and theory. sixth, more research should examine the conditions under which specific interventional strategies are most effective. unfortunately, journal articles that focus on environmental attitudes and demographics outnumber behavioral intervention articles by about a 7:1 ratio.56therefore, more research efforts that investigate which strategies are most successful for which types of behavior as well as the conditions under which rewards or penalties, or a combination of the two, are most effective.
What will the actual cost of climate change not me equal to?
in practice, of course, water users and managers will adapt to a changing climate - possibly inappropriately and probably reactively - and so the actual cost of climate change will not be equal to the simple costs of impacts outlined in table 3.1
What are water supply companies likely to do?
for example, water supply companies are likely to introduce a variety of measures to try to maintain the security of supplies to customers, and consumers exposed to water shortage will seek alternative sources of supply
What will managers of wetland do?
managers of a wetland will alter pumping regimes to seek to maintain target water levels
in practice, of course, water users and managers will adapt to a changing climate - possibly inappropriately and probably reactively - and so the actual cost of climate change will not be equal to the simple costs of impacts outlined in table 3.1. for example, water supply companies are likely to introduce a variety of measures to try to maintain the security of supplies to customers, and consumers exposed to water shortage will seek alternative sources of supply. managers of a wetland will alter pumping regimes to seek to maintain target water levels. measures taken to respond to other pressures on the water environment will also affect the impacts of climate change. if these other pressures and the responses to them are ignored for the moment, then the 'cost' of climate change for a given activity in the water sector is:
Longline fishing is known to what?
as longline fishing is known to have a direct impact on albatrosses survival only through incidental by-catch (brothers 1991), we kept only fisheries that took place during breeding (trawl and longline fishing effort) in the kerguelen exclusive economic zone, but two fishing variables were insufficient to use a principal components analysis (pca
How many significant correlations were found?
we found three significant correlations between the different soi and ssta covariates r 0-6, p 0-03), but as the results of the pca on these climatic parameters did not explain sufficient variation, we started with the full model including all of them
What was done before performing model selection?
we checked for the significance of each of estimated parameter before performing model selection
ll winter ll kerguelen 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 1990 1994 years fig. 2. annual fishing effort of fisheries from (a) longlining efforts exerted in both kerguelen and australasian waters; (b) the trawling effort around kerguelen. success for a measure of r2. breeding success was modelled as a func tion of the defined soi and ssta (appendix si, see supplementary material). as longline fishing is known to have a direct impact on albatrosses survival only through incidental by-catch (brothers 1991), we kept only fisheries that took place during breeding (trawl and longline fishing effort) in the kerguelen exclusive economic zone, but two fishing variables were insufficient to use a principal components analysis (pca). we found three significant correlations between the different soi and ssta covariates r 0-6, p 0-03), but as the results of the pca on these climatic parameters did not explain sufficient variation, we started with the full model including all of them. we checked for the significance of each of estimated parameter before performing model selection.
how are conventional digesters used?
conventional digesters are mainly used for the stabilisation of primary and secondary sludge originating from sewage treatment, and for the treatment of industrial effluents with a high concentration of suspended solids
how do conventional digesters consist?
they usually consist of covered circular or egg-shaped tanks of reinforced concrete
What factors affect the rate of hydrolysis?
the hydrolysis rate, in turn, is affected by several factors, such as: (i) temperature; (ii) residence time; (iii) substrate composition and (iv) particle size
conventional digesters are mainly used for the stabilisation of primary and secondary sludge originating from sewage treatment, and for the treatment of industrial effluents with a high concentration of suspended solids. they usually consist of covered circular or egg-shaped tanks of reinforced concrete. the bottom walls are usually inclined, so as to favour the sedimentation and removal of the most concentrated solids. the covering of the reactor can be fixed or floating (mobile). since conventional digesters are preferably used for the stabilisation of wastes with a high concentration of particulate material, the hydrolysis of these solids can become the limiting stage of the anaerobic digestion process. the hydrolysis rate, in turn, is affected by several factors, such as: (i) temperature; (ii) residence time; (iii) substrate composition and (iv) particle size. thus, with the aim to optimise the hydrolysis of the particulate material, conventional digesters may be heated up, with operation temperatures usually ranging from 25 to 35*c. the hydrolysis phase evolves very slowly when the digesters are operated at temperatures below 20*c. as the conventional digesters do not have specific means for biomass retention in the system, the hydraulic detention time should be long enough to guarantee the permanence and multiplication of the microorganisms in the system, while enabling all the phases of the anaerobic digestion to be processed appropriately. depending on the existence of mixing devices and on the number of stages, three main digester configurations have been applied:
What barriers can cause proximate barriers to adaptation?
some barriers from different categories co-occur or reinforce each other; some 'remote' and less obvious barriers can cause proximate barriers to adaptation
What issues are rarely researched in an explicit way?
although studies occasionally indicate the importance of a dynamic perspective and consideration of causal interdependencies among barriers, these issues are yet rarely researched in an explicit way
the above examples and categories of barriers suggest a rich and vibrant foundation for research on adaptation. yet, the transferability of knowledge on why barriers emerge and how they might be addressed is still quite limited. an important next step now is to go beyond describing and enumerating barriers towards explaining them, to provide clear and valid analyses leading to identification of entry points and strategies for intervention. although studies occasionally indicate the importance of a dynamic perspective and consideration of causal interdependencies among barriers, these issues are yet rarely researched in an explicit way. the huge diversity of actors and contexts between single cases is clearly a major challenge in this regard. this section elaborates these research themes further and makes methodological suggestions. first, consider interdependency. some case studies mention a co-occurrence (or 'clustering') of multiple barriers19,30,57. this reflects that the barrier categories discussed above are sometimes independent of each other. but in many cases they are not mutually exclusive; in fact, they are often interdependent. some barriers from different categories co-occur or reinforce each other; some 'remote' and less obvious barriers can cause proximate barriers to adaptation. few studies have attempted to trace back the apparent or proximate set of conditions impeding adaptation to the underlying causes of why or how these conditions have arisen and why they endure6,11. for example, unresolved conflicts between the involved actors' goals can be a proximate impediment to adaptation27,28. but what is the root cause of such conflicts? a conflict may arise from multiple actors being affected by the same climate change impacts and adaptations in different ways. alternatively, the impacts can cause resource scarcity as a root of conflict, if accompanied by a lack of institutionalized mechanisms for conflict resolution. when two barriers are interdependent, it is not always obvious which of them underlies the other. we argue that understanding the interdependencies of barriers is central for explaining their occurrence, persistence and resolution. it is also crucial from a practical viewpoint. policies or approaches to reduce or overcome barriers might prove to be ineffective if they disregard causal interdependencies, while a welldesigned intervention can simultaneously address multiple related barriers. it might also be necessary to address multiple interdependent barriers in parallel. second, consider dynamics. several components in the proposed definition of barriers to adaptation (see above) can be dynamic: the actors involved and the actions under consideration; the institutional, socioeconomic and -- of course -- climatic context of the involved actors; and the value judgements of actors. dynamics may be the result of historical events, contingent factors or specific interventions, or they may be the consequence of specific interdependencies among barriers. overlapping with the interdependency theme detailed above, the degree of mutual interaction can also change over time. some barriers might reinforce or balance other barriers over time. for example, interlinked barriers may lead to vicious or virtuous cycles64, either mutually enforcing or mitigating
What is the necessary resource for both herbiores and wildfires,  where they both interact and compete for it?
vegetation is not only a necessary resource for wildfires but also for herbivores and consequently they both interact and 'compete' for this resource
Who has the potential to significantly alter fuel loads , structure and alter fire regimes ?
a diverse array of animals, from insects to megaherbivores, has the potential to significantly alter fuel loads and structure and alter fire regimes
vegetation is not only a necessary resource for wildfires but also for herbivores and consequently they both interact and 'compete' for this resource (bond and keeley 2005 fuhlendorf and others 2008 ). a diverse array of animals, from insects to megaherbivores, has the potential to significantly alter fuel loads and structure and alter fire regimes. this can potentially occur through natural population cycles or, more often, to changes in animal populations driven by human interventions. although natural cycles may be coupled with climate fluctuations, there is evidence of fire changes not directly related to the climate but to the fuel modification by animal activities.
Can humans tranform ecosystems?
observational programs sustained over decades reveal the power of human actions to transform ecosystems at the sea - land interface and the responsiveness of these ecosystems to decadal fluctuations of the climate system
Can humans create ecosystems?
human actions are creating novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability
What can indicate ecosystem-scale change?
 this implies that simple measurements such as salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a are powerful indicators of ecosystem-scale change
observational programs sustained over decades reveal the power of human actions to transform ecosystems at the sea - land interface and the responsiveness of these ecosystems to decadal fluctuations of the climate system. many estuarine - coastal ecosystems appear to be in a continuing state of change, so the concept of variability around a quasi-equilibrium state is not useful for guiding research or management. instead, human actions are creating novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. thus, management toward ecosystem reconciliation (rosenzweig, 2003) has become a more realistic goal than restoration toward some earlier state. patterns of change are complex, and the challenge of unraveling the causes of ecosystem change is daunting in the coastal zone where human pressures are concentrated and effects of climate variability over land intersect with different effects over ocean basins. complexity also arises from the barely-understood synergistic effects of multiple processes such as nutrient enrichment, species s, fishing and changing climate. thus, effective management of coastal ecosystems requires a holistic systems perspective grounded in research to discover how multiple processes operate together to bring about transformative change. discoveries that come uniquely from sustained observations must play a central role in this research. observational programs also reveal how estuaries function as systems where all component parts - habitats, connections to land and ocean, biological communities and biogeochemical processes - are tightly interlinked. changes in one have effects that ramify throughout the system. this implies that simple measurements such as salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a are powerful indicators of ecosystem-scale change. although we know with certainty that changes will continue into the future, there is great uncertainty about how those changes will unfold. ecological time series are nonstationary, so reliable forecasting cannot
what are the state of heart models?
the evidence of modest overall model skill during the midholocene and lgm, and for substantial misrepresentation of past regional climates, clearly raises serious questions about stateoftheart models
who are the aspects of modern climate?
the current generation of models has been shown to be better at simulating some aspects of the modern climate2. individual models are incorporating more complex treatments of key processes and feedbacks, and for individual models these improvements translate into better simulations of key aspects of past climate66,67. however, relative to previous generations of models, these developments apparently do not translate into an improved ability to simulate climate change
what are the difference between the ensemble level?
at the ensemble level, the differences between the cmip5 simulations and earlier cmip3/pmip2 simulations are small and statistically unimportant, both for the past and for the future (fig. 4). there is growing feeling that future analyses of climate change and its impacts should be based on cross-generational
the evidence of modest overall model skill during the midholocene and lgm, and for substantial misrepresentation of past regional climates, clearly raises serious questions about stateoftheart models. the current generation of models has been shown to be better at simulating some aspects of the modern climate2. individual models are incorporating more complex treatments of key processes and feedbacks, and for individual models these improvements translate into better simulations of key aspects of past climate66,67. however, relative to previous generations of models, these developments apparently do not translate into an improved ability to simulate climate change. at the ensemble level, the differences between the cmip5 simulations and earlier cmip3/pmip2 simulations are small and statistically unimportant, both for the past and for the future (fig. 4). there is growing feeling that future analyses of climate change and its impacts should be based on cross-generational
What does not change significantly on inclusion of extra GWD ?
the inclusion of the extra gwd does not change significantly the resolved wave flux from the troposphere, as seen by the similarity of the 100-hpa meridional heat flux in the two experiments in fig. 10
What are the results of induction of extra GWD ?
however, as a result of the changes in the zonal mean zonal winds induced by the extra gwd, changes in the resolved wave drag in the stratosphere do occur
What does the latitudinal curvature of the jet produce ?
the strong latitudinal curvature of the jet produces a strong potential vorticity gradient, which forms an efficient waveguide for the vertical propagation of planetary waves. in the gwd60s experiment
the inclusion of the extra gwd does not change significantly the resolved wave flux from the troposphere, as seen by the similarity of the 100-hpa meridional heat flux in the two experiments in fig. 10. however, as a result of the changes in the zonal mean zonal winds induced by the extra gwd, changes in the resolved wave drag in the stratosphere do occur. this feedback is demonstrated in fig. 13, which shows the resolved wave drag for jja and october. considering first the results for jja, there is a tongue of strong wave drag at 60 8 s in the control experiment (fig. 13a). this feature closely follows the jet axis (fig. 11a), where the strong latitudinal curvature of the jet produces a strong potential vorticity gradient, which forms an efficient waveguide for the vertical propagation of planetary waves. in the gwd60s experiment (fig. 13b), the tongue of wave
How will the strategies improve health in the near term?
most of these strategies have the potential to improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution, and some have the potential to bring added benefi ts through increased physical activity
What two strategies were omitted from the chart that could make important contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions?
the table omits two strategies that we consider could make important contributions to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and that are outlined in this article--limiting livestock production and human population policies
What is one approach to illustrating potential solutions to the major challenge of stabilising emissions of greenhouse gases.
one approach to illustrating potential solutions to the major challenge of stabilising emissions of greenhouse gases is the concept of stabilisation wedges
one approach to illustrating potential solutions to the major challenge of stabilising emissions of greenhouse gases is the concept of stabilisation wedges, where a wedge is 1 gigatonne of carbon per year of emission savings in 2054 achieved by a single strategy.18,19 the approach focuses on carbon dioxide because it is the predominant greenhouse gas, although similar strategies could be devised for other greenhouse gases. implementing seven wedges of this magnitude, it is argued, should put the world on track for stabilisation of greenhouse-gas concentrations at less than double pre-industrial levels. figure 1 presents an illustrative plan of the fi rst 50 years of action required to achieve this goal. the proposal assumes that emission rates must fall in the second half of the century, declining to net zero emissions near the end of the century. although there are major uncertainties, this approach does indicate the likely magnitude of change required and the mix of policy options. table 1 summarises some of the strategies available. most of these strategies have the potential to improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution, and some have the potential to bring added benefi ts through increased physical activity. a few bring with them potential but poorly quantifi ed threats to public health--eg, the safety issues associated with a hydrogen economy, the environmental health risks associated with nuclear waste, and the potential for nuclear proliferation or terrorist attacks on an expanded nuclear power programme. the table omits two strategies that we consider could make important contributions to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and that are outlined in this article--limiting livestock production and human population policies.
What does the discussed work share with  ' complex systems ' thinking?
their work shares some ontological and epistemological assumptions with ' complex systems ' thinking, inasmuch as they view society as made up of networked connections among actors evolving in unpredictable nonlinear ways
What does the discussed work emphasize by a spatially and temporally contingent ' assemblage ' description, rather than as a definable system?
however, by describing this as a spatially and temporally contingent ' assemblage ' rather than as a de fi nable system they emphasized the creative potential of ever-changing, and often con fl icting, relations between actors (human and nonhuman alike
What are seen as the most potent opportunities for innovation and change to emerge?
accordingly, the discord and instability of micropolitics as opposed to the consensus and isomorphism of management are seen as the most potent opportunities for innovation and change to emerge
their work shares some ontological and epistemological assumptions with ' complex systems ' thinking, inasmuch as they view society as made up of networked connections among actors evolving in unpredictable nonlinear ways. however, by describing this as a spatially and temporally contingent ' assemblage ' rather than as a de fi nable system they emphasized the creative potential of ever-changing, and often con fl icting, relations between actors (human and nonhuman alike). accordingly, the discord and instability of micropolitics as opposed to the consensus and isomorphism of management are seen as the most potent opportunities for innovation and change to emerge.102
What are Wal-Mart share prices linked to?
oil price increases
How many national retail  filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by May 2008?
at least eight
When did the US credit crunch begin?
2007
the severity of the economic crisis in the usa in 2007 - 2008 manifested itself in many different ways on the faces of buildings across the country. one early symptom of its progress was the decline of the pre-eminent role of the mall in us settlements. warning signs had been seen through 2006 when sudden hikes in the cost of petrol in april led to a dramatic drop in wall mart share prices, linked to oil price increases, as people stopped driving out to the mall for casual shopping. out-of-town shopping centres not only occupy big tin sheds that are very expensive to heat and cool but they also require buyers to drive to them, so costing both the retailer and the shopper more money to use as energy prices rise. by may 2008 at least eight national retail chains in the usa had filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection while an even greater number of companies had been forced to close branches and scale back expansion. the problem is that for many us towns, particularly in the mid-west, life revolves around the mall, not least during the hottest months when malls provide a cool refuge for the increasing numbers of people who cannot afford to run their own air conditioning systems during the day and evening. the stores, restaurants and cinemas need hundreds of staff to operate, so when the mall stores start to close the jobs they provided also go. as more and more stores close the mall ceases to be the fun place it once was and people stay away. the travel costs of staff and shoppers start to become a factor in deciding whether to go there every day or once a week or visit a closer smaller store for daily needs. a vicious cycle begins. a fall in revenue of a mall then makes the banks wary of extending the credit that most retailers need to survive between the big spending seasons of christmas, easter and other holidays, and the whole show begins to unravel. malls have closed all over the usa in the credit crunch that began in 2007. 35 in britain there is also ' trouble at t'mall ' by july 2008 many out-of-town retailers were beginning to get very worried. the cost of a trip to an out-of-town retail destination includes not only
In which way will physiological responses to climate change manifest at the population?
physiological responses to climate change will manifest at the population level as shifts in abundance, timing of annually recurring events (phenology), and the spatial organization (distribution and dispersion) of organisms
What are the consequences that suboptimal conditions and poor individual performance can cause?
suboptimal conditions and poor individual performance can cause reduced abundance and population productivity as well as reduced resilience to disturbance
Write down three well-documented biological impacts.
first, the dispersal capacity of species from a regional species pool determines whether they will have the opportunity to invade or inhabit a site. second, the range of abiotic environmental conditions that are physiologically tolerable to a species defines its fundamental niche, and thus niche boundaries can change as climate changes the ocean environment. third, biological interactions (predation, competition, and others) may constrain, or in some cases expand (bruno et al. 2003), the habitable range of conditions or the realized niche of a species
physiological responses to climate change will manifest at the population level as shifts in abundance, timing of annually recurring events (phenology), and the spatial organization (distribution and dispersion) of organisms. suboptimal conditions and poor individual performance can cause reduced abundance and population productivity as well as reduced resilience to disturbance. well-documented biological impacts from climate change include shifts in population range and distributions, which reflect the product of several interacting processes (see sidebar long-term ocean observations). first, the dispersal capacity of species from a regional species pool determines whether they will have the opportunity to invade or inhabit a site. second, the range of abiotic environmental conditions that are physiologically tolerable to a species defines its fundamental niche, and thus niche boundaries can change as climate changes the ocean environment. third, biological interactions (predation, competition, and others) may constrain, or in some cases expand (bruno et al. 2003), the habitable range of conditions or the realized niche of a species. a set of species with overlapping realized niches constitutes a community, and by affecting all of these processes, climate change can alter the composition and function of marine communities. one example of changes to dispersal patterns is that many boreal species currently restricted to either the north atlantic or north pacific are separated because of dispersal inhibition by harsh arctic conditions. as this arctic barrier weakens with warming and sea-ice retreat,
From what year is the census data used?
2000
What does the framework estimate ?
u.s. households' preferences over local climates
Do this preference vary?
these preferences vary by location due to sorting or adaptation
we present a hedonic framework to estimate u.s. households' preferences over local climates, using detailed weather and 2000 census data. we find that americans favor an average daily temperature of 65 degrees fahrenheit, will pay more on the margin to avoid excess heat than cold, and are not substantially more averse to extremes than to temperatures that are merely uncomfortable. these preferences vary by location due to sorting or adaptation. changes in climate amenities under businessasusual predictions imply annual welfare losses of 1 to 3 percent of income by 2100, holding technology and preferences constant. (jel h49, i39, q54, r10)
What statistical filtering process was used to find modern plausible parameter sets?
using a statistical filtering process known as approximate bayesian computation to find modern plausible parameter sets
What is the Approximate Bayesian Computation approach successful at?
this approach proved remarkably successful in the objective of producing weakly constrained parameter vectors, resulting in a wide range of plausible climate states, centred upon the modern climate state
What parameters of uncertainty does the author list?
whilst the uncertainty is unsurprisingly dominated by the atmosphere (+-0.93degc), uncertainties in vegetation contribute +-0.32degc, with ocean +-0.24degc and sea-ice +-0.14degc
we have designed a large parameter set with the purpose of maximising the range of modelled feedback response in an effort to overwhelm the variance arising from structural error, as suggested by rougier et al (in preparation). the ensemble was achieved by building deterministic emulators for five different aspects of the climate state, and then using a statistical filtering process known as approximate bayesian computation to find modern plausible parameter sets. this approach proved remarkably successful in the objective of producing weakly constrained parameter vectors, resulting in a wide range of plausible climate states, centred upon the modern climate state. the complex precalibration procedure was required in view of the broad input ranges applied to 25 parameterisations, attempting to jointly address the major sources of uncertainty in each of the four modelled earth system components; whilst only 1% of the 1,000 simulations from a maximin latin hypercube design satisfied modern plausibility, more than 90% of simulations satisfied this requirement after the abc-emulator filtering. the resulting parameter set is likely to have potential genie-1 applications elsewhere. the range of responses exhibited by genie-1 with this parameter set encompasses most of the behaviour seen in multi-model gcm ensembles, notably displaying uncertainty in the sign of the change in atlantic overturning in response to lgm boundary conditions. this suggests that the uncertainty in the response seen in gcms may derive from parametric uncertainty rather than reflecting fundamental differences between models. the emulation of climate sensitivity enables us to investigate the contribution of individual parameters to uncertainty. whilst the uncertainty is unsurprisingly dominated by the atmosphere (+-0.93degc), uncertainties in vegetation contribute +-0.32degc, with ocean +-0.24degc and sea-ice +-0.14degc. in order to derive probability distributions for a range of earth system responses, we have applied the analysis of rougier (2007) to the ensembles of modern, lgm and 2xco2 climate states. the lgm provides a paleodata constraint which we apply, together with data-based informative prior distributions, incorporating estimates of additional structural error, including an allowance for the bias introduced by the neglect of dust. although our approach has not narrowed the uncertainty in climate sensitivity - our assumption of a structural error in the olr feedback parameterisation that is greater than the variability of multi-model gcm comparisons ensures that this cannot be the case - our results indicate that lgm constraints imply a slight increase in the most probable value for
The changes in the slope range can be caused by what reasons?
of course, downslope range shifts could be driven by changes in other aspects of climate than mean temperature, e.g. precipitation regime, snow cover duration, water balance, or seasonality in climate parameters
At high altitudes, what warmer temperatures can cause?
at high elevations, for example, warmer temperatures may decrease the winter snow cover duration (beniston 2005), and thus may cause frost damage at the higher margin of a species' elevational distribution, which in turn may alleviate the competitive effect of this species on other ones potentially migrating towards lower elevations
The influx to areas unoccupied by species occurs in which directions?
additionally, the influx towards areas vacated by upslope shifting competitive species is likely to occur both from above and below
of course, downslope range shifts could be driven by changes in other aspects of climate than mean temperature, e.g. precipitation regime, snow cover duration, water balance, or seasonality in climate parameters. these complex aspects of climate variability may heavily influence species range margins (zimmermann et al. 2009), and thus more complex environment-competition interactions are likely to cause unexpected range shifts in response to climate warming. at high elevations, for example, warmer temperatures may decrease the winter snow cover duration (beniston 2005), and thus may cause frost damage at the higher margin of a species' elevational distribution, which in turn may alleviate the competitive effect of this species on other ones potentially migrating towards lower elevations (fig. 2c). consequently, the competitive control that this species exerts on the distributions of the species above will likely become less tight. additionally, the influx towards areas vacated by upslope shifting competitive species is likely to occur both from above and below. this should result in some species shifting upslope and others shifting downslope, and others even expanding towards both sides without changing in their mid-range position (fig. 2e). therefore, complex environment-competition interactions may also cause downslope range shifts, but temporarily before other stronger competitors invade.
What event initiated the "end of the age of tall buildings"?
with the arrival of the global economic slump in 2007/08, so began the end of the age of tall buildings
Which company was the second biggest developer in the UK in 2008?
by february 2008 british land, the second biggest developer in the uk, had lost ps 1.4 billion from the share value of its offices and out-of-town retail parks and the property markets continued on their freefall
Why did the prices for tall buildings start to fall?
investors began to get cold feet about the mammoth investments required by 2005 and in january 2008 they started pulling investment from all new tall buildings on the books as property funds began their sharp fall. shares in many property and development companies plunged in value
the age of skyscrapers is at an end. it must now be considered an experimental building typology that has failed. 1 with the arrival of the global economic slump in 2007/08, so began the end of the age of tall buildings. we wrote of its imminent demise in the first edition of this book and since then the prediction has come true. the reasons we gave in 2003 and what has happened since, are covered below in a review of the phenomena that must constitute the twentieth century's greatest ' follies de grandeur ' investors began to get cold feet about the mammoth investments required by 2005 and in january 2008 they started pulling investment from all new tall buildings on the books as property funds began their sharp fall. shares in many property and development companies plunged in value. by february 2008 british land, the second biggest developer in the uk, had lost ps 1.4 billion from the share value of its offices and out-of-town retail parks and the property markets continued on their freefall. british land was particularly vulnerable to collapses in the property markets as it was heavily invested in two of the most price-vulnerable building types: the tall buildings and the mall buildings, which both became the fall buildings. for the tall building sector in the uk and elsewhere there are many reasons why mothballed projects will, and should be, permanently shelved.
Who provided the high resolution digital elevation models?
we would like to thank marvin eng (research branch, bc ministry of forests) for providing the highresolution digital elevation models
Who created the PRISM model?
christopher daly (oregon state university) who has created the prism model
Who funding for this study?
funding for this study was provided by the forest investment account through both the bc forest science program and the forest genetics council of bc and a joint strategic grant to aitken and yanchuk from nserc and the biocap canada foundation
we would like to thank marvin eng (research branch, bc ministry of forests) for providing the highresolution digital elevation models. we would also like to acknowledge greg o'neil (research branch, bc ministry of forests), trevor murdock (canadian institute for climate studies), christopher daly (oregon state university) who has created the prism model, an anonymous reviewer, and the editor for their constructive comments in reviewing this manuscript. funding for this study was provided by the forest investment account through both the bc forest science program and the forest genetics council of bc and a joint strategic grant to aitken and yanchuk from nserc and the biocap canada foundation.
What does this review provide?
this review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006
What is th4e development since 2006?
crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods
What is the role of Carbonyl sulphide ?
while the role of carbonyl sul fi de as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been con fi rmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions
interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. this review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. a crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. however, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be con fi dently quanti fi ed. the volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them dif fi cult to understand. while the role of carbonyl sul fi de as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been con fi rmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. new evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfate matter such as black carbon and organics. chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. in many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.
What have been considered  in large-scale  global oceanic  models as a 'black-box' ?
viruses and prokaryotes
What play a pivotal role in the functioning of both pelagic and benthic ecosystems ?
viruses play a pivotal role in the functioning of both pelagic and benthic ecosystems
What models are severely limited by the ability to include important biological components and to specify the temporal and spatial ?
current ocean climate models
there is a considerable interest in the interconnection between present climate change and consequences on marine ecosystems and their function. in the past, viruses and prokaryotes have been considered in large-scale global oceanic models as a 'black box'. we know now that viruses play a pivotal role in the functioning of both pelagic and benthic ecosystems, influencing microbial food webs, controlling prokaryotic diversity and impacting biogeochemical cycles. clearly, a better understanding of their response to present climate change would enhance our ability to predict and adapt to the consequences of such changes. traditionally, the evaluation of the effects of climate change on natural systems is conducted by the analysis of paleoecological and stratigraphic records or by the analysis of longterm data sets that permit the identification of the relationships between climatic conditions and the spreading or decline of specific biological components. these approaches are impossible in the field of the viral ecology as we are not aware of any evidence of fossil viruses and we do not have long-term data for this important component of marine systems. it is also unclear whether viruses, under the present scenarios of climate change, will ultimately stabilize or destabilize the dynamics of the living components of ecosystems and their biogeochemical cycles. therefore, we cannot yet predict whether the viruses will exacerbate or smooth the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems. the approach used here, based on the presentation of specific relevant case studies, and on the meta-analysis of the available literature information on an array of changes in viral assemblages, allows us an initial examination of possible coming changes in our worlds' oceans. given the knowledge gained from previous documented research studies, we also provide some speculation on scenarios that could occur if the current projections of climate change will result in actual changes in terms of surface and deep-water temperatures, productivity, stratification, salinity and acidification. from the case studies analyzed, it appears that the effect of rising surface water temperatures on viruses will be significant, influencing both the metabolism and growth efficiency of the prokaryotes and altering the viral life cycles. however, it is apparent that different effects will be observed at different latitudes and in different oceanic regions. for instance, data reported here led to hypothesize that higher temperature will promote the viral component at high latitudes and depress it at the tropics. however, because the mosaic of environmental changes will be different in each biogeographic region, we stress the need of future studies aimed at addressing the impact of climate change on regional and global scales. the scenario of freshening at the poles will likely increase the input and spread of freshwater groups of viruses and bacteria into marine systems, along with increasing opportunity for crossing over of marine and freshwater taxa. marine viruses can influence the metabolic balance of heterotrophic prokaryotes, inducing shifts in pelagic ecosystems function. however, it is unclear whether the viral shunt will ultimately have positive or negative effects on the efficiency of the biological pump, and consequently, the feedback effects of marine ecosystems on climate. in both alternatives presented here, the role of viruses on the carbon export to the ocean interior is potentially crucial and has to be considered and addressed, especially within global climate models. viruses have the potential to interact with the climate through their contribution to the marine biogenic particles of the aerosol and by contributing to the release of dms through the lysis of their autotrophic hosts. these processes have to be quantified and included in modeling studies dealing with the ocean-atmosphere interactions. the omzs are predicted to expand in the future ocean because of climate change, with important consequences on biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and phosphorus and on the distribution of organisms. because eukaryotic herbivores and bacterivores are more sensitive than prokaryotes to the reduction in oxygen levels, it can be expected that virus-induced mortality of prokaryotes will increase at the expense of protists and other bacterivores. expanding omzs will also lead to an increase in the frequency of anoxic sediments and thus potentially the global role of viruses in benthic prokaryotic dynamics. the effects of ocean acidification on marine viruses are uncertain, but we can anticipate that the most dramatic changes will be due to the effects of ph on the host organisms that the viruses rely on bacteria, archaea, protists and metazoa, which are highly ph dependent. moreover, because some key metabolic processes of the microbial communities are highly sensitive (and inhibited) by even small decreases in the ph of the medium, ocean acidification may have a profound influence on the overall functioning of the microbial communities and on virus- host interactions. the case studies presented here suggest that marine viruses will be significantly influenced by climate change and that, in turn, viruses could influence processes contributing to climate change. current ocean climate models are severely limited by the ability to include important biological components and to specify the temporal and spatial
Thirty-three scientists and 92 crew members sailed from St. John's, Newfoundland, via Baffin Bay and Nares Strait to which sea?
thirty-three scientists and 92 crew members sailed from st. john's, newfoundland, via baffin bay and nares strait to the lincoln sea
During the cruise, to where did two teachers post daily journal entries?
during the cruise, two teachers posted daily journal entries to the project web site
What did a professional photographer document?
a professional photographer documented both science and the environment
the project fieldwork began in 2003 aboard the uscgc healy (see witness spring/autumn 1999). thirty-three scientists and 92 crew members sailed from st. john's, newfoundland, via baffin bay and nares strait to the lincoln sea. from 21 july to 19 august, the team: * conducted 79 casts of the ctd-rosette system to produce detailed hydrographic sections in baffin bay, smith sound, kennedy and robeson channels, the previously unsampled petermann glacier fiord, and deep hall basin; * obtained four piston cores that appear to extend to the last glacial period (more than 10,000 years ago) from off the slope of bylot island and a gravity core in deep hall basin; * deployed 18 moorings in southern kennedy channel to monitor current speed and direction as well as temperature, conductivity, and ice draft; * deployed five shallow pressure-sensing moorings at sites in nares strait; * collected bivalves for a project using shell layers to reconstruct past chemical conditions in the strait; * carried out hull-mounted acoustic doppler current profiling (adcp) surveys at several locations; * collected the first swath mapping data for the region via the ship's seabeam sonar system; and * acquired underway surface properties via the thermosalinograph system along the majority of the ship's track. during the cruise, two teachers posted daily journal entries to the project web site, a member of the nunavut community of grise fiord participated in on-board activities, and a professional photographer documented both science and the environment.
What impact, amplified by climate change, can have negative effects on higher-trophic level species in a marine ecosystem?
for instance, unexpected and non-linear effects of climate change possibly exacerbated by fishing pressure, could result in shifts that favor lower-trophic species, such as jellyfish, at the expense of high-valued species, such as cod
What other factors exacerbate the risk of climate change on fish populations and other marine ecosystems?
1) near their physiological limits in terms of temperature, salinity and ph; (2) severely compromised in terms of their resilience due to existing anthropogenic factors, such as overfishing; and (3) are in locations most likely to suffer climate change impacts
What human activity is directly related to the favoring of lower trophic level species compared to higher trophic level species?
for instance, unexpected and non-linear effects of climate change possibly exacerbated by fishing pressure
climate change, at least in the short run, may only affect a relatively small proportion of fishes, but longer-run indirect effects are likely to have major implications on all marine ecosystems not all 4 4 of these impacts will be predictable or proportional to the bio-physical change. for instance, unexpected and non-linear effects of climate change possibly exacerbated by fishing pressure, could result in shifts that favor lower-trophic species, such as jellyfish, at the expense of high-valued species, such as cod the fish populations and ecosystems most at risk with climate change will be those that are already: (1) near their physiological limits in terms of temperature, salinity and ph; (2) severely compromised in terms of their resilience due to existing anthropogenic factors, such as overfishing; and (3) are in locations most likely to suffer climate change impacts.
Which study will addresses the issue?
only two studies, farnsworth et al.86 and ball et al.20 directly address this issue
Write the percentage of enhanced CO2 concentrations?
growth enhancements are also attributed to declines in respiration under enhanced co2 concentrations that are in the order of approximately 20 percent70
What will be the elevated CO2 conditions of mangroves?
in mangroves, elevated co2 conditions (twice ambient) had little effect on growth rates when growth was limited by salinity, but increased growth by up to 40 percent when growth was limited by humidity20
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part ii: species and species groups there are few studies of the impacts of elevated co2 on mangroves. only two studies, farnsworth et al.86 and ball et al.20 directly address this issue. in other higher plants, photosynthesis and growth is often enhanced at doubled atmospheric co2 concentrations, however the level of enhancement is dependent on other interacting environmental factors69,138. growth enhancements are also attributed to declines in respiration under enhanced co2 concentrations that are in the order of approximately 20 percent70. in mangroves, elevated co2 conditions (twice ambient) had little effect on growth rates when growth was limited by salinity, but increased growth by up to 40 percent when growth was limited by humidity20. faster growing, less salt tolerant species were more responsive to elevated co2
What do the points without bars indicate?
the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension
What are the estimates based on?
estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent
What makes the choices coded as consistent?
choices are coded as consistent if the agreement supported in the ranking (binary choice) is also rated higher in the ranking component of the conjoint
fig. s6 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states using data from consistent choices only. this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement. estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent. the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension. choices are coded as consistent if the agreement supported in the ranking (binary choice) is also rated higher in the ranking component of the conjoint.
How were the interviews conducted?
all of the interviews were conducted on a one-to-one basis with the exception of one group discussion with four women
Where and how long were these interview conducted?
interviews lasted between one and half and two hours and were usually conducted in participants' own homes
How were the interviews recorded?
interviews were taped and transcribed
england, and in rural areas of the cotswolds. the aim was to work in depth and to develop a rich or 'thick' understanding of a relatively small sample with a broadly shared social position rather than conduct a questionnaire survey, for example, which would have allowed a 'thinner' exploration of a much more diverse sample. it could be argued that the sample is diverse in terms of their marital status, that having always remained single and childless is very different to having been married, or having had children within or outside marriage. to treat all participants as members of the category 'single' may conceal important differences. clearly there are differences in the kind of accounting and relationship history that women give, and we will be exploring these elsewhere. in this article we are looking at particular commonalities that appeared across the sample. appendix 1 shows some of the variation in statuses and allows readers to see how we reached our conclusions in relation to the data that we discuss. all of the interviews were conducted on a one-to-one basis with the exception of one group discussion with four women. interviews lasted between one and half and two hours and were usually conducted in participants' own homes. the researcher was able to interview with the status, to some extent, of an 'insider' (adler and adler, 1987). as noted, she identified herself as a single woman, and shared some features such as cultural and class background with many of the sample. we hoped that this shared culture would avoid reproducing the situation noted in the where women who define themselves as single are constantly put on the spot to explain their 'oddity'. while we generally refer to those interviewed as 'participants', we recognize that the researcher was also a participant in the discussion and the resulting discourse was jointly constructed. a schedule of questions was prepared for use in what can be described as the 'guided but informal conversation' of the interview. participants were provided with an outline of topic areas in advance, and were asked to complete a form relating to personal details. interviews were taped and transcribed. the transcripts have been anonymized, with names changed and details which might lead to identification of the person removed. participants were provided with a copy of their own transcript and offered the opportunity to correct or delete material. the interview topics covered three broad areas. the first area also served as a general the researcher asked about the images participants held of singleness and how they perceived others' views of themselves. the second area focused on the participant's past and current relationships. the final questions aimed to revisit the participant's current feelings about her situation, and to elicit any political perspectives she might hold regarding the single state. in this paper, we focus on discourse drawn mainly from the first area and in particular the sample's responses to three questions: 1. 'how do you prefer to describe yourself?' this question usually followed an initial question asking the participant to give a brief description of herself and picked up on whether singleness was mentioned and what words were used in that brief description. 2. 'what images of singleness do you recall having when younger?' this was commonly accompanied by a follow up question - 'what does singleness mean to you now?' 3. 'how do you think other people see singleness?' 'what images are common?' this
What does indeterminate growth allow?
the mass of fish of similar age in the same species can vary considerably among populations
How many populations of S. Trutta has the model been used to investigate growth?
at least 40 populations of s. trutta
Is the model suitable for predicting growth of the S. trutta?
the model underestimated growth of s. trutta at sea, however, and was thus not suitable for predicting sea
unlike most vertebrates, many fish species exhibit indeterminate growth so that the mass of fish of similar age in the same species can vary considerably among populations. for example, the mass of 3 year-old mature female s. trutta can vary from only 75-100 g for resident stream fish to 5 kg or more for anadromous fish returning to spawn in fresh water (elliott, 1994). as it shows such a wide variation in size, s. trutta is an ideal subject for studying the complexity of factors affecting its growth. in his comprehensive review of growth in fishes, ricker (1979) emphasized the importance of developing mathematical models for growth. he showed that the early growth models were empirical equations fitting a course of growth in relation to time or age, usually at annual intervals, e.g. von bertalanffy, gompertz, johnson and richards growth curves. more than one model will often be found to describe satisfactorily the same set of observations, especially when applied to annual growth. these models also assume that growth is asymptotic, i.e. the size of a fish will tend towards some fixed limit no matter how long a fish lives. this assumption is clearly invalid for salmonids. ricker (1979) concluded that more realistic models are required to describe growth over short periods of time and thus to determine if fishes are growing at their maximum potential. it is 35 years since a predictive model was developed for the growth of s. trutta (elliott, 1975). this model has now been used to investigate growth in at least 40 populations of s. trutta in most populations, the fish were growing at or below their maximum potential with only a few populations in which they grew faster than the maximum rates predicted by the model (elliott, 1994). the model underestimated growth of s. trutta at sea, however, and was thus not suitable for predicting sea
Where do the data come from?
data for this study were obtained from a nationally representative survey conducted in october and november, 2008
Who were the respondents?
respondents were adult members of an online, non-volunteer, probability-based panel with 50,000 members
data for this study were obtained from a nationally representative survey conducted in october and november, 2008; respondents were adult members of an online, non-volunteer, probability-based panel with 50,000 members. the study had a recruitment rate of 21.6 %, a profile rate of 56.4 %, a completion rate of 54.1 %, and a cumulative response rate of 6.6 %; n =2,164. 6.1 measurement climate change activism was assessed for three actions - contacting elected officials to support mitigation action; attending climate-related rallies or meetings; and donating to or volunteering with an organization working to reduce global warming. for each behavior, a seven-point scale was constructed, integrating past actions and future intentions from (1) intention to act less frequently in the coming year4to (7) has acted more than once and intends to do so more frequently in the coming year; cronbach ' s a =.81 for the three scales.5
What is required to test these predictions?
testing these predictions certainly requires more field and lab-based studies
What may improve ecological predictions?
ecological predictions may improve by matching organismal scales with climate variables (fig. 1
With the increased availability of daily climate data, what should future ecological research use?
with the increased availability of daily climate data (peterson vose, 1997) future ecological research should use daily models that have clear ties to plants' circadian timescales (dodd et al. 2005) and to how climate change has influenced daily minima and maxima disproportionately (vose et al. 2005
testing these predictions certainly requires more field and lab-based studies. however, we can make large advances using current long-term records of species phenology by integrating frameworks from climatology and ecology. ecological predictions may improve by matching organismal scales with climate variables (fig. 1). while ecologists have used a wide variety of different climate variables and models (diekmann, 1996; post stenseth, 1999), recent work has often used monthly and annual means, which operate on human calendar scales, instead of on biological scales (yang rudolf, 2010). with the increased availability of daily climate data (peterson vose, 1997) future ecological research should use daily models that have clear ties to plants' circadian timescales (dodd et al. 2005) and to how climate change has influenced daily minima and maxima disproportionately (vose et al. 2005). in turn, climate science could benefit from greater focus on intraand inter-specific variation, resulting in more accurate predictions of biological responses to climate change. for example dynamic global vegetation models as components of coupled climate-carbon models are being evolved to realistically represent biodiversity and competition among individual forest species, rather than assume some average forest phenology (lichstein et al. 2010). clearly, more research is needed across tropical and semi-arid systems (fig. 2), and across time at the middle and end of growing seasons. in addition, while we have focused here on photoperiod, precipitation and temperature, a number of other cues may modulate phenology, and these might be more important in nontemperate systems. for example, in some parts of the tropics phenology may be most sensitive to variation in solar insolation produced by changes in cloud cover
Long term transitions are noted in birch forests due to what type of changes?
this suggests that birch forests exhibit long-term transitions up and down the mountain in response to long-term climatic changes
What are two probable outcomes of treeline advancement and forest fragmentation?
this fragmentation may increase risk of species extinction as populations get smaller and dispersal distances increase
How can climate change and afforestation influence alpine species?
climate change will force many alpine species toward higher altitudes, both as a result of afforestation and a changed climate
bp) and middle (ca. 5000 years bp) holocene. similarly, kullman (1993) found subfossils of birch, dated to 4000-5000 bp, at locations 200-300 m above the current tree limit in vasterbotten, sweden, and 300-500 m above the current tree limit at mt. areskutan, jamtland (dated to 5000-14 000 bp; kullman 2002a). this suggests that birch forests exhibit long-term transitions up and down the mountain in response to long-term climatic changes. the large expanses of treeless alpine heaths that we see today may thus be seen as an interstadial between more forested time periods. the advance in the treeline will fragment the current large continuous expanses of alpine heaths. this fragmentation may increase risk of species extinction as populations get smaller and dispersal distances increase. climate change will force many alpine species toward higher altitudes, both as a result of afforestation and a changed climate. an overall trend of upward migrations of alpine species on mountain summits in the alps has already been detected (grabherr et al. 1994).
What does transformational social change consist of?
transformational social change can be said to involve a broad set of interrelated processes: practical, political and personal in nature
What are the two prominent agendas that use a systems perspective to address climate change mitigation and adaptation?
in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation, two prominent agendas (st transitions and se resilience) both utilize a systems perspective to address some of these issues
What are the consequences of the so-called conceptual blind spots?
however, certain conceptual blind spots (particularly regarding politics, power, agency, and ideas) have not only limited the scope of their analyses but have also led to problematic governance prescriptions
transformational social change can be said to involve a broad set of interrelated processes: practical, political and personal in nature. in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation, two prominent agendas (st transitions and se resilience) both utilize a systems perspective to address some of these issues. however, certain conceptual blind spots (particularly regarding politics, power, agency, and ideas) have not only limited the scope of their analyses but have also led to problematic governance prescriptions. whilst some strands of tm and adaptive comanagement do acknowledge the existence of competing visions for a climate compatible future, in general there is a tendency to try to control this potentially creative force through a process of isomorphism, managerialist steering and consensus building. re fl exivity and social learning are encouraged by both approaches but little is said of how ideas and in fl uences mediate this process and to what extent this reinforces a incremental rather than transformational trajectory. such an approach will not only favor technical and behavioral solutions to climate change but it may do so in a politically naive way that struggles to challenge the dominant ideas and institutional inertia of societies with high/rising emissions and large swathes of vulnerable communities. in response, we may turn to social theories -- where power, politics, and social relations are of central concern -- for insights and provocations. if st and se systems are to become more productive interdisciplinary frameworks capable of politically contextualized climate governance prescriptions then they will need more socially oriented theories of change. first, focusing on the contingent relations between various actors (human and nonhuman) and their assemblages (e.g., an industry or a community) instantly opens up possibilities for more radical innovation and adaptability beyond the discursive
What would better information have allowed regarding the forecasts?
since better information is assumed to permit increased extraction, the forecast provider may wish to make sure everyone has the best forecasts possible
What is the goal of the scenario to the left?
in the scenario to the left, the goal is maximizing current gnp (consistent with an elected politician's need to point to a strong economy and satisfy the industrial subsector's lobby
How many scenarios were presented?
twelve scenarios are presented, with a focus on two types of comparisons: first, for a shift in the definition of societal benefit; and second, for a shift in the constraints on forecast value
dissemination choices include: location and local institution with whom to work; target population; whether or not to disseminate; which model(s) to base a forecast on; forecast spatial resolution, lead time, frequency, and medium (e.g., internet versus radio); whether to charge and how much; and whether to train people in interpretation of observations, predictions, and probabilistic forecasts. twelve scenarios are presented, with a focus on two types of comparisons: first, for a shift in the definition of societal benefit; and second, for a shift in the constraints on forecast value. each of these shifts suggests a change in the best dissemination choice. consider the upper row in table ii, in which regulatory power is perceived to be low (again, peruvian fishery regulations have been inconsistently enforced). in the scenario to the left, the goal is maximizing current gnp (consistent with an elected politician's need to point to a strong economy and satisfy the industrial subsector's lobby). since better information is assumed to permit increased extraction, the forecast provider may wish to make sure everyone has the best forecasts possible,
What have reduced green sites in Nagoya?
changes in land use associated with industrialisation and the expansion of residential areas have reduced green sites in nagoya
What is the main initiative that can help the city become better adapted to climate change?
is the 2050 nagoya strategy for biodiversity, which aims to improve and extend the green areas of the city
changes in land use associated with industrialisation and the expansion of residential areas have reduced green sites in nagoya to about 25% of the area of the city. an additional cause of concern is the increase in temperature of nagoya city associated with climate change. these factors are exacerbating the urban heat island effect and problems associated with high temperatures in the urban areas of nagoya. given these threats, the city of nagoya has undertaken various measures to create more sustainable lifestyles in the city. the main initiative that can help the city become better adapted to climate change (in particular to high temperatures) is the 2050 nagoya strategy for biodiversity, which aims to improve and extend the green areas of the city. sitting within the biodiversity strategy, the water revitalisation plan aims to recharge ground water supplies by increasing infiltration through the use of green spaces. a
What is critical for for understanding why climatic factors matter?
developing strategies and techniques that can isolate and characterize a specific mechanism is critical for understanding why climatic factors matter
What three strategies have been somewhat successful in specific contexts?
testing for interactions with potential mediating factors that are plausibly exogenous (barreca et al. 2013), exploiting natural experiments where specific pathways are shut down (fetzer 2014), and matching detailed patterns of climate influence on outcomes and potential mediating factors (anttila-hughes hsiang 2012) are all approaches that have been somewhat successful in specific contexts
What are reduced from estimates that capture influences on an outcome through all possible pathways?
most estimated effects of climate are reduced from estimates that capture influences on an outcome through all possible pathways
regardless of the research design, most estimated effects of climate are reduced from estimates that capture influences on an outcome through all possible pathways. developing strategies and techniques that can isolate and characterize a specific mechanism is critical for understanding why climatic factors matter. testing for interactions with potential mediating factors that are plausibly exogenous (barreca et al. 2013), exploiting natural experiments where specific pathways are shut down (fetzer 2014), and matching detailed patterns of climate influence on outcomes and potential mediating factors (anttila-hughes hsiang 2012) are all approaches that have been somewhat successful in specific contexts, although additional innovations in this area are needed, as these strategies are not always available.
What were the analyzes of the measurements of the Hong Kong Department of Environmental Protection
measurements by the hong kong environmental protection department showed that dissolved oxygen concentrations declined significantly in deep bay from 1988 to 2004 (fig. 3a) as the regional population grew (fig. 3a inset). the annual mean concentration of dissolved oxygen fell to a minimum 3.6 mg l 1in 2003, but it has increased steadily since
deep bay is a shallow bay in hong kong waters surrounded by shenzhen, one of the fastest growing cities and economies in china that has been transformed from a small fishing village in the 1970s to a mega-city of 14 million people. this explosive population growth created serious water-quality problems by the 1980s as growing inputs of organic matter and nutrients caused hypoxia, ammonium toxicity and bacterial contamination (yin et al. 2010). measurements by the hong kong environmental protection department showed that dissolved oxygen concentrations declined significantly in deep bay from 1988 to 2004 (fig. 3a) as the regional population grew (fig. 3a inset). the annual mean concentration of dissolved oxygen fell to a minimum 3.6 mg l 1in 2003, but it has increased steadily since. the trends of oxygen decline, and then increase, were responses to growing inputs of organic wastes that paralleled population growth in the surrounding landscape, followed by policies formulated in 1999 to reduce the number of livestock farms, impose effluent treatment standards on other farms and extend the hong kong sewerage master plan to hundreds of villages (xu et al. 2010; yin et al. 2010). the deep bay example illustrates changes seen along all the world's coasts: organic enrichment depletes oxygen from coastal waters, but the problem can be solved with sewage treatment and actions to reduce inputs of animal waste.
Climate refugia can exist both in what?
where changes in climate are attenuated (e.g., saxon 2008 ), or where biodiversity is likely to be particularly robust to changes in climate
trade-offs of the five approaches to adaptation addressed here, conserving the stage arguably involves the fewest trade-offs to be evaluated. further, this approach integrates well with a goal of considering current and historic refugia, as many of the same characteristics and principles apply. it is easily used in conjunction with existing species or habitat features, and doing so is unlikely to reduce the efficiency of the conservation planning process. one advantage of the conserving the stage approach is that it does not resist change, but rather anticipates ecological and evolutionary dynamism and uses our understanding of how biodiversity is generated to maximize the opportunity for future diversity. protecting climatic refugia in many ecosystems, climate change is already leading to rapid ecological change that can be construed as negative for biodiversity conservation (e.g., bleaching events for coral reefs--berkelmans et al. 2004 drought-related mortality of pinus edulis in the southwestern united states--breshears et al. 2005 ). because the probability, speed, type, and extent of these changes is unlikely to be uniform across a region, a relatively straight forward and intuitive approach to adaptation in regional conservation plans is to focus on identifying and protecting biodiversity in those areas least likely to undergo rapid climateinduced changes. such places may serve as important climate refugia for species and habitats that become marginalized through ecological changes elsewhere. climate refugia can exist both in places where changes in climate are attenuated (e.g., saxon 2008 ), or where biodiversity is likely to be particularly robust to changes in climate, perhaps due to a broad climate tolerance (e.g., west and salm 2003 ). for example, as part of a national conservation plan for papua new guinea (png), game et al. 2011 identified climate refugia based on projected changes in seven climate dependent variables (potential evapotranspiration, precipitation/potential evapotranspiration, precipitation of the coldest quarter of the year, precipitation of the warmest quarter of the year, mean temperature of the coldest quarter of the year, mean temperature of the warmest quarter of the year, and average monthly temperature) (fig. 2 ). the current value for these variables in 5-km pixels was compared with their projected value in the year 2100, and the expected change normalised with the value 1 being assigned to the pixel expected to experience the greatest climatic change across png. there are multiple ways to define refugia from climate change, and different definitions require different methods of identification and data inputs. ashcroft 2010 recommends that discussions of refugia explicitly distinguish between macrorefugia and microrefugia (i.e., the scale at which refugia are being identified, and therefore what resolution climate data are necessary or appropriate), in situ and ex situ refugia (whether refugia from future climate change are likely to be located within or outside of a species' current distribution), and refugia based on climatic versus habitat stability. the issue of scale is particularly important as it has been shown to influence patterns of species richness and species turnover, particularly as they relate to changes along environmental gradients (jetz and rahbeck 2002 ). for example, species turnover in amphibians and birds is closely linked to environmental turnover, and this effect is more pronounced in tropical than temperate realms (buckley and jetz 2008 ), suggesting that tropical systems may be more susceptible to impacts from climate change. these results suggest that some areas identified as refugia
What is the aims of Landscape 2013?
landscape 2013 aims to capture the most recent global, annual climate finance flows supporting emission reductions, climate resilience, and enabling environment projects
What are two-dimensional framework?
first, we categorize flows alongside their life cycle (sources and intermediaries, instruments, disbursement channels, and final sectoral uses geographic destination of finance). second, we categorize flows depending on whether they originate from public or private sources
How should the Landscape 2013 identified?
should be compared with estimates of global financing needs that are consistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to no more than 2deg celsius
landscape 2013 aims to capture the most recent global, annual climate finance flows supporting emission reductions, climate resilience, and enabling environment projects based on empirical data from a wide range of sources.2 to do this, we build on past reports' definitions and methodologies and adopt the same two-dimensional framework. first, we categorize flows alongside their life cycle (sources and intermediaries, instruments, disbursement channels, and final sectoral uses geographic destination of finance). second, we categorize flows depending on whether they originate from public or private sources. as with previous reports, the figures identified in the landscape 2013 should not be confused with amounts that count towards the usd 100 billion developed countries committed to mobilize in the copenhagen accord, but instead should be compared with estimates of global financing needs that are consistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to no more than 2deg celsius. in the absence of an internationally-acknowledged definition of what qualifies as climate finance, we limit finance flows to 'climate-specific finance,' referring specifically to capital flows targeting low-carbon and climate-resilient development with direct or indirect greenhouse gas mitigation or adaptation objectives/ outcomes.3 we capture upfront capital investment costs and grants, all expressed as commitment data. as
What is the effect of climate change?
responding to effects of climate change (for example, changes in nutrient availability and plant nutrient acquisition, higher co2 concentrations and temperatures, water deficits and flooding) that influence the closure of the yield gap between potential and actual production will require continuation of existing ' best management practices ' coupled with improvements in agronomic management practices and crop-breeding [58,59
Which support agricultural production?
uncertain is the degree to which advances in crop physiology and genetics will continue to support higher agricultural production in response to more frequent climate shocks
How Survival strategies is  employed?
combinations of multiple plant traits to survive stress, however, may produce more resilient crop production in the face of climate change survival strategies employed by plants include early flowering to escape drought periods, stomatal control to prevent water loss, enhanced root growth in deeper soil layers to access water and reduced leaf growth to minimize the transpiring
responding to effects of climate change (for example, changes in nutrient availability and plant nutrient acquisition, higher co2 concentrations and temperatures, water deficits and flooding) that influence the closure of the yield gap between potential and actual production will require continuation of existing ' best management practices ' coupled with improvements in agronomic management practices and crop-breeding [58,59]. uncertain is the degree to which advances in crop physiology and genetics will continue to support higher agricultural production in response to more frequent climate shocks. whereas successful crop adaptation to new production locations may be a good predictor of future outcomes, much higher co2 concentrations and temperatures are conditions beyond our current set of experiences [21,60]. molecular approaches and genetic engineering will foster better understanding and manipulation of physiological mechanisms responsible for crop growth and development, as well as the breeding of stress-adapted genotypes [61-63], but there are social controversies surrounding the use of some of these technologies. high-throughput phenotyping platforms and comprehensive crop models will lead to more rapid exploration of genetic resources, enabling both gene discovery and better physiological understanding of how crop improvement can increase tolerance to environmental stress [64-68]. development of new crop genotypes to meet the need to thrive under future management and climate conditions, the expected increases in the frequency of climate shocks and the uncertainty of rates of climate change presents a challenge. the specific examples set forth in the following paragraphs demonstrate how greater understanding of biochemical pathways, plant traits and phenotypes and germplasm evaluation could help overcome bottlenecks in both yield and development of physiological resilience to environmental stresses. molecular approaches provide opportunities to establish linkages between biochemical pathways and physiological responses. in cereals such as rice, grain yield is highly dependent on the carbohydrate source (top leaves) and sink (florets) relationship, which is strongly influenced by the plant hormone cytokinin cytokinin production also affects drought tolerance and senescence, and isopentenyl transferase (ipt) expression controls upregulation of pathways for cytokinin degradation. therefore, it follows that tolerance of abiotic stress by delaying stress-induced senescence through manipulation of ipt expression in transgenic lines could maintain optimal levels of cytokinin, resulting in greater fitness and more seed and grain production when exposed to varying drought intensities preand postflowering, transgenic rice with higher ipt expression maintained consistently higher grain yields and concentrations of sucrose and starch compared to the wild-type genotype. the delayed onset of drought-related symptoms in the transgenic lines caused positive source - sink relationships for a relatively longer period with higher photosynthetic rates than the wild type. combinations of multiple plant traits to survive stress, however, may produce more resilient crop production in the face of climate change survival strategies employed by plants include early flowering to escape drought periods, stomatal control to prevent water loss, enhanced root growth in deeper soil layers to access water and reduced leaf growth to minimize the transpiring
how many sources of uncertainty should be considered for interpretation of climate models?
the interpretation of climate models to inform policy and decision support must consider at least five distinct sources of uncertainty
what does Model uncertainty captures?
model uncertainty captures the fact that we are uncertain as to what parameter values (or ensembles of parameter values) are likely to provide the most informative results
which constraints prevent our model from any claim?
computational constraints prevent our models from any claim of near isomorphism with reality, whatever that phrase might mean
the interpretation of climate models to inform policy and decision support must consider at least five distinct sources of uncertainty. forcing uncertainty captures those things in the future which are considered outside the climate system per se yet affect it. initial condition uncertainty captures our uncertainty in how to initialize the models in hand; what initial state, or ensemble of states, to integrate forward in time. initial condition uncertainty is usefully divided into two camps depending on whether or not the details of today's uncertainty in a variable are likely to influence the final distributions we estimate on our time scale of interest. model imperfection describes the uncertainty resulting from our limited understanding of, and ability to simulate, the earth's climate. it is also usefully divided into two types: uncertainty and inadequacy. model uncertainty captures the fact that we are uncertain as to what parameter values (or ensembles of parameter values) are likely to provide the most informative results; here, climate modelling has a further complication due to choices between parametrizations themselves, not just the values of each model parameter. finally, model inadequacy captures the fact that we know a priori there is no combination of parametrizations, parameter values and ics which would accurately mimic all relevant aspects of the climate system. we know that, if nothing else, computational constraints prevent our models from any claim of near isomorphism with reality, whatever that phrase might mean. the five types of uncertainty are not independent and basic questions of identifiability and interpretation remain smith 2000 ). the design and interpretation of experiments in the face of these uncertainties are among the grand challenges of climate science today. interpretation is also complicated by the extrapolatory nature of the problem referred to earlier. greenhouse gas scenario simulations relate to physical regimes (e.g. co2 levels) where we have no precise observations. in this sense, weather forecasting is closer to interpolation, as we have an archive of forecasts and
Define mosquito-borne diseases?
the history of mosquito-borne diseases at different latitudes and in different climatic eras can help us assess the significance of climate variables in the context of the many other factors that affect transmission
What is  Climatology?
climatology is a relatively young science
What is the time span of direct studies of climate
thus the time span of direct studies of climate is within the first order of climatic variation, less than the period for valid long-term change
an alternative approach is to look at the past. the history of mosquito-borne diseases at different latitudes and in different climatic eras can help us assess the significance of climate variables in the context of the many other factors that affect transmission. history of climates. climatology is a relatively young science. apart from a handful of sites, systematic records of climate variables are available only for the past century, mainly from land-based stations in the northern hemisphere. global data, obtained by weather satellites, are available only for the past few decades. thus the time span of direct studies of climate is within the first order of climatic variation, less than the period for valid long-term change (table 1). fortunately, a large amount of alternative data is available. documentary information from annals, chronicles, audited accounts, agricultural records, tax ledgers, and a wealth of other archival material provides a rich source of indirect information, particularly on the timing and occurrence of extreme weather events such as drought, flood, or unusual cold. descriptions of wind direction, wind speed, cloud formations, and other weather indicators are available from private diaries, ships' logs, accounts of military campaigns, and similar sources. substantial lines of evidence are also available from archaeologic, geologic, fossil, and other sources. they include the study of glacial moraines, lake and ocean sediments, pollen strata, deposits of insects, tree rings, coral structure, radiometric analysis of ice cores, and many other indicators. all this evidence makes it possible to realistically reconstruct past climates over the course of time 2,16 ). history of mosquito-borne disease. the scientific study of mosquito-borne disease is also limited to the past 100 years. fortunately, the symptoms of three important diseases-- malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--are fairly distinctive. thus, as with climatology, we can turn to a variety of sources for evidence of their occurrence in past climates. the bulk of this review is devoted to such evidence. particular emphasis is placed on the temperate latitudes because of the wealth of historical materials that is available and because models suggest that the impact of global warming may be greatest at these latitudes.
What models were used to test for overall and speciesspecifi c relationships between spring temperature, calendar year, and earliest fl owering date?
linear mixed-eff ects models in the nlme library pinheiro et al., 2015 of the r statistical software system r core team, 2014 version 3.1.0 to test for overall and speciesspecifi c relationships between spring temperature, calendar year, and earliest fl owering date
What as a  fixed predictor variable in climate" model?
in the "climate" model, mean spring temperature was treated as a fi xed predictor variable
What as a  fixed predictor variable in Year" model?
in the "year" model, calendar year was the fi xed predictor variable
we used linear mixed-eff ects models in the nlme library pinheiro et al., 2015 of the r statistical software system r core team, 2014 version 3.1.0 to test for overall and speciesspecifi c relationships between spring temperature, calendar year, and earliest fl owering date. earliest fl owering date in a given year-- either from fi eld or herbarium observations--was the response variable in all models. in the "climate" model, mean spring temperature was treated as a fi xed predictor variable, whereas in the "year" model, calendar year was the fi xed predictor variable. in both models, data type--fi eld observation or herbarium record-- was also treated as a fi xed predictor variable. species identity was included as a random eff ect. th e values of the random eff ects (i.e., equivalent to the y intercept for each species) ordered the species from earliest to latest fl owering, so we also regressed (using a linear regression model) the rate of change in earliest fl owering date for each species (i.e., the slope of the line relating earliest fl owering date to climate) against its random eff ect term. th is latter analysis provided additional insights about potential species-specifi c sensitivity to spring temperature as a phenological cue. to test the hypothesis that estimated changes in earliest fl owering date determined from herbarium specimens were correlated with observed changes in fi rst fl owering date as the climate has changed, we plotted the slopes of the lines fi t to either the fi eld observational data or the herbarium data in the "climate" model. we tested the relationship between the slopes generated by these two models in two ways. first, we did a simple paired t test on the slopes (paired by species). failure to reject the null hypothesis of no difference would suggest that the observed and herbarium data are recording similar responses to climate. we also fit a model ii regression to the paired slopes (model ii, or reduced major-axis regression makes no assumption about the "independent" or "dependent" variable gotelli and ellison, 2012 )). th e slope of this regression tests whether the two sets of data vary in parallel, and the intercept is an estimate of how the expected shift in fl owering date diff ers between the two data sets. in the main text, we report data only for the 600 fi eld observations from concord combined with 297 herbarium records from middlesex county (where the town of concord is located). th e results were qualitatively identical when we combined the concord observations with the 680 herbarium records from four nearby counties (results in appendix s1, see supplemental data with online version of this paper). raw data and model code are publicly accessible from the harvard forest data archive (http://harvardforest. fas.harvard.edu/data-archive), data set hf-258. results and discussion
What is a radical correction of the review?
however, a closer look reveals that there is indeed another hand to however, a closer look reveals that there is indeed another hand to these answers
What is the need for action?
rather, it depends decisively on the assumption of a near-zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function
What is the principle of global warming?
hence, the central questions about globalwarming policy - how much, how fast, and how costly - remain open. the review informs but does not answer these fundamental questions. 34 34
however, a closer look reveals that there is indeed another hand to however, a closer look reveals that there is indeed another hand to these answers. the review's radical revision of the economics of climate change does not arise from any new economics, science, or modeling. rather, it depends decisively on the assumption of a near-zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function. the review's unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are more consistent with today's marketplace real interest rates and savings rates. hence, the central questions about globalwarming policy - how much, how fast, and how costly - remain open. the review informs but does not answer these fundamental questions. 34 34
What was the combined cost of the flood damage in the Western Cape province in March 2003 and April 2005?
the extent of the damage in the western cape province during this period exceeded r 260 million
Why are stormwater drains in the area prone to blockages?
sand from the cape flats is blown into the drains during the dry summer months and then obstructs rainwater drainage during the rainy winter season, and more specifi cally during times of unpredicted heavy storms and intense rainfall. in the "leafy" suburbs, leaves block the drains, particularly in the autumn, with the same result
What will be the effects of an increase in the number of extreme flood events?
an increase in the number of extreme events will have the effect of substantially increasing the losses to the public and private sectors, as well as increasing personal hardship for the people directly affected
the damaging fl oods in march 2003 and april 2005 were due to heavy rainfalls over a short period of time. the extent of the damage in the western cape province during this period exceeded r 260 million.(35) furthermore, stormwater drains in the area are prone to blockages - sand from the cape flats is blown into the drains during the dry summer months and then obstructs rainwater drainage during the rainy winter season, and more specifi cally during times of unpredicted heavy storms and intense rainfall. in the "leafy" suburbs, leaves block the drains, particularly in the autumn, with the same result. these blocked drains cause fl ooding and damage to property and infrastructure. this is also true in areas where there is no drainage infrastructure, such as informal settlements (mostly on the cape flats). poor drainage also has other adverse impacts on the livelihoods and health of low-income households. impacts and vulnerabilities the intensity of rainfall in the western cape can be expected to change due to climate variability. an increase in the number of extreme events will have the effect of substantially increasing the losses to the public and private sectors, as well as increasing personal hardship for the people directly affected. adaptation initiatives the city has an extensive stormwater and fl ood risk infrastructure and an elaborate hydrological monitoring network.(36)
what are analysis of development projects in Indonesia?
for murray li (2007) in her governmentality analysis of development projects in indonesia, the role of government is also primarily about calculation: it is concerned with making things (problems) into technical programmes that can be managed
what is explicit coherent policy programme?
similarly to dean, murray li identifies two key practices that are required to translate a government 'rationale' or discourse into an explicit coherent policy programme: first, problematization identifying the problem, the things that need to be rectified; and, second, rendering technical a set of practices "concerned with representing 'the domain to be governed as an intelligible field with specifiable limits and particular characteristics... defining boundaries, rendering that within them visible, assembling information about that which is included and devising techniques to mobilize the forces and entities thus revealed
what is governmentality lens?
a governmentality lens is especially relevant in thinking about carbon accounting because it brings to the fore the possibility that accounting technologies and practices can themselves influence wider 11 11 discourse; it is a two-way relationship. as murray li (2007: 6) explains, in the adoption of a governmental rationality
for murray li (2007) in her governmentality analysis of development projects in indonesia, the role of government is also primarily about calculation: it is concerned with making things (problems) into technical programmes that can be managed. similarly to dean, murray li identifies two key practices that are required to translate a government 'rationale' or discourse into an explicit coherent policy programme: first, problematization identifying the problem, the things that need to be rectified; and, second, rendering technical a set of practices "concerned with representing 'the domain to be governed as an intelligible field with specifiable limits and particular characteristics... defining boundaries, rendering that within them visible, assembling information about that which is included and devising techniques to mobilize the forces and entities thus revealed.'" (murray li 2007: 7; quoting rose (1999: 52)). the two practices are of course intricately linked, for identification of a problem is linked to the availability of a solution (see also kingdon (2003)). a governmentality lens is especially relevant in thinking about carbon accounting because it brings to the fore the possibility that accounting technologies and practices can themselves influence wider 11 11 discourse; it is a two-way relationship. as murray li (2007: 6) explains, in the adoption of a governmental rationality:
Further description of the site and results from other studies conducted at the same location can be found in
cropper and gholz (1991, 1993) and gholz et al
The ponderosa pine forest was regenerated from natural seed after a harvest inÂ 
1940
and is located
university of montana's lubrecht experimental forest, 50 km north-east of missoula, montana (46~ "n, 113~ ponderosa pine made up >95 of the basal area of the plots
(l.) a. gray]. further description of the site and results from other studies conducted at the same location can be found in cropper and gholz (1991, 1993) and gholz et al. (1991). the ponderosa pine forest was regenerated from natural seed after a harvest in 1940 and is located at the university of montana's lubrecht experimental forest, 50 km north-east of missoula, montana (46~ "n, 113~ ponderosa pine made up >95 of the basal area of the plots. the soil developed on glacial till, is very shallow and rocky, and is classified as either a dystric eutrochrept or a typic eutroboralf (nimlos 1986). there is negligible biomass in the understory, and further description of the site can be found in gower et al. (1993). the mixed western hemlock and douglas fir
What kind of  the interactions provided by the framework to tackle the climate challenge?
in this paper we have advanced an idea that builds on the interaction between network theory and bioclimatic modelling to generate a simple framework that can be use as a first approximation to tackle this challenge
which theory provides a suitable and powerful framework to address the complexities of climate change impacts on biodiversity?
we believe that network theory provides a suitable and powerful framework to address the complexities of climate change impacts on biodiversity
How network theory help our understanding of the effects of climate change on biodiversity. ?
we believe that network theory provides a suitable and powerful framework to address the complexities of climate change impacts on biodiversity, which in concert with simple co-occurrence matrices (the fundamental unit of analysis in community ecology and biogeography, gotelli 2000) can pave the way to incorporate species interactions into the analysis of species responses to climate change and further our understanding of the effects of climate change on biodiversity
the challenges posed by a rapidly changing climate and its consequences on biodiversity, requires a concerted effort of 10-ev scientists in different disciplines. in this paper we have advanced an idea that builds on the interaction between network theory and bioclimatic modelling to generate a simple framework that can be use as a first approximation to tackle this challenge. we believe that network theory provides a suitable and powerful framework to address the complexities of climate change impacts on biodiversity, which in concert with simple co-occurrence matrices (the fundamental unit of analysis in community ecology and biogeography, gotelli 2000) can pave the way to incorporate species interactions into the analysis of species responses to climate change and further our understanding of the effects of climate change on biodiversity.
What is a consequence of a thermohaline circulation collapse?
decreased fishery and agricultural yields and damages to natural ecosystems
What will result from major ocean circulation change?
neither the probability and timing of a major ocean circulation change nor its impacts can be predicted with confidence yet, but such an event presents a plausible, non-negligible risk
given the paucity of credible and/or appropriate scenarios of thc collapse, there has been an understandable paucity of studies that have seriously tried to evaluate what the impacts of such a collapse would be for northwest europe; virtually none have explored the implications of such an anticipated abrupt climate change for current decision making about adaptation policy. on the other hand, there have been a few preliminary attempts at integrated assessments of the mitigation policy implications using coupled climate-economy models (we summarize some of these issues in ss 5 a ). what this means is that to a large extent we are left with speculative statements about what thc collapse might mean for europe or for the world. for example, none of the following recently made statements are rooted in substantive environmental, economic or social research. the consequences of such a thermohaline circulation collapse might include decreased fishery and agricultural yields and damages to natural ecosystems keller et al (2000, p. 19) neither the probability and timing of a major ocean circulation change nor its impacts can be predicted with confidence yet, but such an event presents a plausible, non-negligible risk. smith et al (2001, p. 951) such rapid climate change [over as short a period as 10-20 years] would make adaptation to, and mitigation of, the impacts exceedingly difficult for the affected countries. srokosz (2002, p. 66)
What occurs in midlatitudes that is an important factor for property losses caused by natural hazards over Europe?
winter storms of the midlatitudes are an important factor for property losses caused by natural hazards over europe
Recent studies provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change, the number of extreme storms and cyclones may increase or decrease?
recent studies provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change the number of extreme storms could increase, whereas the total number of cyclones may be slightly reduced
For the United Kingdom and Germany, ensemble-mean stormrelated losses are found to increase by how much?
for the united kingdom and germany ensemble-mean stormrelated losses are found to increase by up to 37
winter storms of the midlatitudes are an important factor for property losses caused by natural hazards over europe. the storm series in early 1990 and late 1999 led to enormous economic damages and insured claims. although significant trends in north atlantic/european storm activity have not been identified for the last few decades, recent studies provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change the number of extreme storms could increase, whereas the total number of cyclones may be slightly reduced. in this study, loss potentials derived from an ensemble of climate models using a simple storm damage model under climate change conditions are shown. for the united kingdom and germany ensemble-mean stormrelated losses are found to increase by up to 37%. furthermore, the interannual variability of extreme events will increase leading to a higher risk of extreme storm activity and related losses. citation: leckebusch, g. c., u. ulbrich, l. fro"hlich, and j. g. pinto (2007), property loss potentials for european midlatitude storms in a changing climate, geophys. res. lett. 34 l05703, doi:10.1029/ 2006gl027663.
How much did American emissions increase overall between 1990 and 2003?
with 1990 established as a near-universal baseline internationally, american emissions increased approximately 15 percent overall from that point through 2003
Between 1990 and 2003, which state is actually on track to meet the reduction targets that would have been imposed had the United States ratified Kyoto?
one state, delaware, is actually on track to meet the reduction targets that would have been imposed had the united states ratified kyoto
Despite its ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, how much did Canadian national emissions increased by between 1990 and 2003?
despite its ratification of the kyoto protocol, canadian national emissions increased 26 percent between 1990 and 2003
the range of emission trends may be particularly surprising, when weighed against the widespread reporting of national averages for emission rates. with 1990 established as a near-universal baseline internationally, american emissions increased approximately 15 percent overall from that point through 2003. this reflects steady growth throughout the 1990s, with a somewhat slower pattern in more recent years. the most recent estimates suggest that american emissions have been essentially stable since 2003, but reliable state-by-state emissions data are not yet available. the overall pattern between 1990 and 2003 varied markedly when looking at the rates of change in the 50 states and the district of columbia (see table 1). one state, delaware, is actually on track to meet the reduction targets that would have been imposed had the united states ratified kyoto, and twelve other states have contained growth rates to single digits. these include several states such as california, pennsylvania, new york, and michigan that have very large emission bases and would rank among national leaders in emissions were they not part of a federation. at the same time, many other states, particularly those of the southeast and southwest, have registered rates of emissions growth that are double or greater than the national average. such a range of emissions is not unique to the united states, despite the tendency to focus only on national-level trends. despite its ratification of the kyoto protocol, canadian national emissions increased 26 percent between 1990 and 2003. only manitoba and quebec approach those states toward the lower end of the growth continuum in the united states, whereas many others such as saskatchewan, alberta, and british columbia, were far above the national average. similar variability exists among the nations of the european union, ranging from outright reduction (germany and the united kingdom) to major increase (ireland and spain). in that case, differential national reduction targets were negotiated as part of the price for ratification, but many individual nations have vastly exceeded their particular targets. in each instance, political leadership of individual jurisdictions (american states, canadian provinces, and european union member states) will be attentive to their emission patterns since 1990 and make that a factor in any intergovernmental bargaining over future emission reductions, credit for early
What are the negative effects of lax regimens?
lax intellectual property regimes have the same negative effect for most technologies, although our results suggest that they might also raise legal barriers in two cases. in addition, results suggest that, unexpectedly, barriers to foreign direct investments promote technology transfer in those cases where the coefficients are significant. this puzzle can have different interpretations. perhaps strict fdi regulations include requirements of technology transfers. another interpretation is that restrictions on fdi lead foreign technology owners to rely more systematically on patents, either to secure their fdi or as an alternative to it
What are the effects of patents?
n conclusion, it is crucial to recall that patents are imperfect proxies of technology transfer for reasons explained in the paper. this should be kept in mind when interpreting the results. if the transfer of patented technologies is positively correlated with non-patented knowledge flows (e.g., know-how), our work gives a general view of the international diffusion of knowledge. alternatively, if they are negatively correlated, because they are substitutes, our results only give a partial view of the overall picture. further work is clearly necessary to clarify these points
in this paper we use the patstat database to analyze the international diffusion of patented inventions in twelve climate-related technologies between 1990 and 2003. this allows us to draw conclusions about those factors which promote or hinder international technology transfer. regressions show that absorptive capacities of recipient countries are determinant factors. this is particularly true for technology-specific knowledge, whereas the general level of education exerts less influence. we also assess the impacts of different policy barriers. the results stress that restrictions to the international trade of equipment goods--e.g., high tariff rates--negatively influence the international diffusion of patented knowledge. lax intellectual property regimes have the same negative effect for most technologies, although our results suggest that they might also raise legal barriers in two cases. in addition, results suggest that, unexpectedly, barriers to foreign direct investments promote technology transfer in those cases where the coefficients are significant. this puzzle can have different interpretations. perhaps strict fdi regulations include requirements of technology transfers. another interpretation is that restrictions on fdi lead foreign technology owners to rely more systematically on patents, either to secure their fdi or as an alternative to it. in conclusion, it is crucial to recall that patents are imperfect proxies of technology transfer for reasons explained in the paper. this should be kept in mind when interpreting the results. if the transfer of patented technologies is positively correlated with non-patented knowledge flows (e.g., know-how), our work gives a general view of the international diffusion of knowledge. alternatively, if they are negatively correlated, because they are substitutes, our results only give a partial view of the overall picture. further work is clearly necessary to clarify these points.
Who is Mr. Chiang-Lin Hsin?
mr. chiang-lin hsin is director general of taiwan's central weather bureau
Before, what was he?
prior to this, he was a counselor at the ministry of transportation and communications from july 1995 to february 2004
Where did you receive your bachelor's degree in atmospheric science?
hsin received his bachelor's degree in atmospheric science from the chinese culture university in 1967
mr. chiang-lin hsin mr. chiang-lin hsin is director general of taiwan's central weather bureau. prior to this, he was a counselor at the ministry of transportation and communications from july 1995 to february 2004. hsin served under five ministers, where his ability to work with legislators was of particular value. his skills in public affairs contributed significantly to the development of ministerial policies and approval of annual ministerial budgets. hsin received his bachelor's degree in atmospheric science from the chinese culture university in 1967. he joined the central weather bureau after serving his one year of military service in 1968, and worked as a weather forecaster, weather station chief, section chief, and senior meteorologist with the cwb from 1968 to 1995. dr. nay htun dr. nay htun is university professor and senior advisor to the president of the council, university for peace where his teaching and research focus on environmental and human security. he is also the senior advisor to the un secretary general, personal envoy for dprk and is the chairman of the unep regional advisory committee for asia and the pacific. he served with the united nations for 25 years, where he was assistant secretary general at both unep and undp. he serves on a number of non-profit organizations, including the chulabhorn research institute and the stockholm environment institute-asia. he obtained a ph.d. in chemical engineering in 1966 from imperial college, london university.
From where the evidence of claims that accurate climate prediction on timescales is drawn?
this evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy documents
How the  alternatives methods to climate prediction work?
the latter captures a variety of approaches that differ from traditional optimum expected utility analysis in that they characterize uncertainty with multiple representations of the future rather than a single set of probability distributions. they use robustness, rather than optimality, as a decision criterion. the fi nal section draws together some conclusions and implications for climate and science policy
How weather forecasters evaluate the skill of their forecasts ?
weather forecasters evaluate the skill of their forecasts by comparing predicted weather against actual weather events. decision-makers also make predictions about the relationship of actions and outcomes when they choose one course of action over another. such predictions involve some expectation of the consequences of action and the desirability of those consequences
the chapter is organized in fi ve sections, including this the following section provides evidence of claims that accurate climate prediction on timescales of years to decades at regional and fi ner spatial scales is necessary for decision-making related to adaptation. this evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy documents. the third section discusses the challenges to accurate climate prediction and why science will consistently be unable to provide reliable and precise predictions of future climate at the regional and local scales that are claimed to be relevant for adaptation. the section that follows explores alternatives to climate prediction, with a focus on robust decision-making. the latter captures a variety of approaches that differ from traditional optimum expected utility analysis in that they characterize uncertainty with multiple representations of the future rather than a single set of probability distributions. they use robustness, rather than optimality, as a decision criterion. the fi nal section draws together some conclusions and implications for climate and science policy. climate prediction for adaptation decision-making scientifi c understandings of phenomena are often tested via predictions that are compared against observations. for example, weather forecasters evaluate the skill of their forecasts by comparing predicted weather against actual weather events. decision-makers also make predictions about the relationship of actions and outcomes when they choose one course of action over another. such predictions involve some expectation of the consequences of action and the desirability of those consequences. lasswell and kaplan 1950 explain: 'decision making is forward looking, formulating alternative courses of action extending into the future, and selecting among alternatives by expectations about how things will turn out.' there is therefore a natural tendency for policy-makers to look to scientists to aid decision making by providing insight on how the future will turn out. in many cases, science has provided enormous benefi ts to decision-makers, either by providing an accurate forecast of future events, such as knowledge of an approaching storm, or by enabling technological innovation that helps decision-makers consciously steer the future toward desired outcomes, such as with the invention of vaccines that improve public health. but there are other circumstances where an improper reliance on scientifi c prediction to enable decision-making does not have such positive outcomes; policy responses to earthquakes are a notable example (see sarewitz and pielke jr, 1999 ). climate science has proven to be enormously valuable in detecting and attributing recent changes in the climate system. science has shown that the climate system is undergoing unprecedented changes that cannot be explained solely by
How would this perspective change our approach to climate economics and policy choices?
economics would find itself in a humbler role, no longer charged with determining the optimal policy. instead, a discussion of scientific information about catastrophic possibilities and consequences would presumably lead to the choice of maximum safe targets, expressed in terms of allowable increases in temperature and co2 levels
What would be expressed in terms of allowable?
expressed in terms of allowable increases in temperature and co2 levels
What will do while spread out in time still?
while still spread out in time, generally occur much sooner than the full range of anticipated damages. precise estimation and monetization of
how would this perspective change our approach to climate economics and policy choices? economics would find itself in a humbler role, no longer charged with determining the optimal policy. instead, a discussion of scientific information about catastrophic possibilities and consequences would presumably lead to the choice of maximum safe targets, expressed in terms of allowable increases in temperature and co2 levels. once safe targets have been established, there remain the extremely complex and intellectually challenging tasks--for which the tools of economics are both appropriate and powerful--of determining the least-cost global strategy for achieving those targets, designing policies that effectively and with confidence meet the targets,9and sharing responsibility for the costs and implementation of that strategy. this cost-effectiveness task, despite its daunting difficulty, is more limited than the cost-benefit analysis attempted by iams--and the reduced scope avoids many of the problems we have discussed. discounting is less of an issue, because the costs of mitigation and adaptation, while still spread out in time, generally occur much sooner than the full range of anticipated damages. precise estimation and monetization of
Where many of the differences between the models arise from the different initial conditions discussed?
as expected, many of the differences between the models arise from the different initial conditions, discussed in section 1a
What aspects has been quantify through this section?
we quantify aspects of such mass transport (or volume transport in a boussinesq model) for selected straits and throughflows in this section, as well as discuss spatial and temporal features of the overturning circulation
the purpose of this section is to expose some of the interior temperature and salinity patterns found in the ensemble mean during simulation years 1981-2000. as expected, many of the differences between the models arise from the different initial conditions, discussed in section 1a. additional warming arises in cm3 relative to cm2.1 owing to an increase in net heating of the ocean associated with differences in the atmospheric and land components, as revealed in fig. 1. the interior biases are largely the result of the transport of heat and salt signals from the surface into the interior and laterally throughout the ocean basins. we quantify aspects of such mass transport (or volume transport in a boussinesq model) for selected straits and throughflows in this section, as well as discuss spatial and temporal features of the overturning circulation.
what does the results indicate?
our results show that both the arrival period and time interval between arrival and laying dates of pied flycatchers extended in sw finland between 1970 and 2002
how the results are explained?
these results are logically explained by differences in long-term temperature trends of short withinspring time periods; spring temperatures have risen only during a short period at the time when the early migrants pass northern central europe
what does these findings indicate?
these findings indicate that the timing of spring arrival has not constrained the timing of breeding in finland, as it may have done in more southern locations (both visser, 2001; sanz et al ., 2003
our results show that both the arrival period and time interval between arrival and laying dates of pied flycatchers extended in sw finland between 1970 and 2002. these results are logically explained by differences in long-term temperature trends of short withinspring time periods; spring temperatures have risen only during a short period at the time when the early migrants pass northern central europe. these findings indicate that the timing of spring arrival has not constrained the timing of breeding in finland, as it may have done in more southern locations (both visser, 2001; sanz et al ., 2003). on the contrary, towards the end of the 20th century the birds have waited longer to start breeding after arrival. nao explained a part of the variation in median arrival date, but when the temperature of hamburg was included in the model, it clearly overrode the effect of nao. these results indicate that while nao is an important large-scale climatic factor affecting local temperatures in europe, the weather conditions of the relevant time periods and sites explain much more of
Find out the effects of climatic regime towards temperature and rainfall projected on wheat yield?
for the scenarios involving increasing temperature and declining rainfall, wheat yields and land values in all agricultural industries (crops, mixed and livestock) were projected to decline by roughly between 7 to 16 per cent. by contrast, in the scenario involving higher temperatures and more rainfall, wheat yields and land values were projected to increase by between 2 to 9 per cent
Elaborate the findings of Kokic et al., on climate regime in Western and Southern Australia.
kokic et al found spatial and industry differences for the climatic regime involving warming and a decline in rainfall. under this regime, although all regions were projected to experience a decline in wheat yield, the southern and western regions of australia were much worse off, plus the western region experienced a large variation in yield change (see figure 1
Does climate regime has same effects on land and livestock? Why?
among agricultural industries the same climate regime particularly adversely impacted on the land values of cropping farms whilst livestock farms were projected to experience a lesser expected decline in land values and less variability in the decline
for the scenarios involving increasing temperature and declining rainfall, wheat yields and land values in all agricultural industries (crops, mixed and livestock) were projected to decline by roughly between 7 to 16 per cent. by contrast, in the scenario involving higher temperatures and more rainfall, wheat yields and land values were projected to increase by between 2 to 9 per cent. of particular interest, kokic et al found spatial and industry differences for the climatic regime involving warming and a decline in rainfall. under this regime, although all regions were projected to experience a decline in wheat yield, the southern and western regions of australia were much worse off, plus the western region experienced a large variation in yield change (see figure 1). among agricultural industries the same climate regime particularly adversely impacted on the land values of cropping farms whilst livestock farms were projected to experience a lesser expected decline in land values and less variability in the decline.
What does the small positive parameter that controls the time scale separation between slow and fast modes measure?
measures the ratio of the correlation time of the unresolved mode u'to the resolved mode
What is tacitly assumed when placing the parameter in front of particular terms?
in placing the parameter in front of particular terms we tacitly assume that they evolve on a faster time scale then the terms involving the resolved modes alone
In particular, in (8) and (9) what are the assumptions?
in (8) and (9) we make the following assumptions: * the external forcings haand hbact on a slow time scale of order e 6 * laaacts on a time scale of order one. * the linear operators lab, lba, and lbbact at most on a faster time scale of order e- 1. * the self-interaction of the unresolved modes bbbbacts on the fastest time scale of order e- 2
bbbb ijkbj( t bk( t (9) where the interaction coefficients are defined in appendix c, and the nonlinear operators have been symmetrized, i.e. bijk bikj in (8) and (9). here e is a small positive parameter which controls the separation of time scale between slow and fast modes and measures the ratio of the correlation time of the unresolved mode u'to the resolved mode ~ u in placing the parameter in front of particular terms we tacitly assume that they evolve on a faster time scale then the terms involving the resolved modes alone. ultimately, e is set to the value e 1 in developing all the final results (mtv 2002, 2003). in particular, here in (8) and (9) we make the following assumptions: * the external forcings haand hbact on a slow time scale of order e 6 * laaacts on a time scale of order one. * the linear operators lab, lba, and lbbact at most on a faster time scale of order e- 1. * the self-interaction of the unresolved modes bbbbacts on the fastest time scale of order e- 2. with these assumptions, the seamless mtv-procedure (see appendix d) predicts the following effective stochastic equations for the resolved variables alone: dai( t 
What type of violence was the largest killer in the 20th century?
by far the largest killer in the 20th century, however, was one-sided violence (including genocide and politicide
What natural resource plays a key role in four of these studies?
water resources, in the form of shared rivers or aquifers, play a key role in four of these studies
How does water scarcity affect the prevalence of militarized conflict?
tir stinnett (2012) find that water scarcity increases the risk of militarized conflict, but that institutionalized agreements can offset the risk
traditionally, research on armed conflict has concentrated on interstate war and civil war. by far the largest killer in the 20th century, however, was one-sided violence (including genocide and politicide) and environmental change has already been linked by some to major episodes of such violence in rwanda and darfur.7while so far there is not much evidence that robustly links climate change to major armed conflict of any of these three types, there is a more plausible argument that it may influence intergroup violence below the state level, 'nonstate violence' in the language of the uppsala conflict data program8or intercommunal conflict in the language of benjaminsen et al. (2012). the bulk of the articles, however, deal with internal conflict. although some of them focus exclusively on state-based civil conflicts, others examine non-state conflicts in a rural setting, or both types. none of the articles examine urban conflict or one-sided violence. five of the articles in this issue examine aspects of interstate conflict, though for the most part at a lower level of violence - militarized disputes rather than major war. water resources, in the form of shared rivers or aquifers, play a key role in four of these studies. de stefano et al. (2012) assess the 276 international river basins for changes in water variability and institutional resilience. they map the basins most at risk for hydropolitical tension and discuss how to target capacity-building to strengthen resilience to climate change and the development of mechanisms for cooperation and conflict resolution. tir stinnett (2012) find that water scarcity increases the risk of militarized conflict, but that institutionalized agreements can offset the risk. bernauer siegfried (2012) examine the syr darya catchment, a promising candidate for a neo-malthusian conflict over international water resources, but conclude that a militarized interstate dispute is unlikely. another worst case in terms of the potential for water conflict, the israeli-palestinian conflict, is discussed by feitelson, tamimi rosenthal (2012). they conclude that it is unlikely that climate change will directly influence the conflict, although the securitization of the water issue may affect the negotiating positions of the parties.
Where will the most severe impacts on biodiversity stem from?
the most severe impacts on biodiversity will stem from changed silvicultural regimes, such as the expansion of short rotation energy forests or carbon forests with longer rotations and higher stocking rates
Multi-species plantations are an alternative to what?
multi-species plantations are an alternative to hedge against unknown future climates
What are climate change mitigation strategies likely to accelerate?
climate change mitigation strategies are likely to accelerate reforestation and afforestation rates due to financial incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by increasing forest carbon stocks (canadell and raupach 2008 
effects on existing plantations given that future plantation management practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation, e.g., shorter rotations, different species, changes in weed control, and other silvicultural operations, are likely to have significant, long-lasting, impacts on biodiversity, it is imperative that we consider the potential effects of new silvicultural practices on biodiversity. the most severe impacts on biodiversity will stem from changed silvicultural regimes, such as the expansion of short rotation energy forests or carbon forests with longer rotations and higher stocking rates. however, in many countries little is known about the inherent (and relative) biodiversity values of different forest stand types, let alone the effect of changing current silvicultural regimes. in some locations new tree crop species will be better suited to future climatic conditions, although their effect on biodiversity within plantations will be context dependent. multi-species plantations are an alternative to hedge against unknown future climates. applied as either mixed-species stands and/or fine-scale mosaics of a variety of single-species stands within plantation landscapes they are likely to be more resilient to unexpected climate change effects. effects from afforestation/reforestation/deforestation in contrast to the ongoing decline in the extent of natural forests, the global area of plantation forests is increasing. climate change mitigation strategies are likely to accelerate reforestation and afforestation rates due to financial incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by increasing forest carbon stocks (canadell and raupach 2008 ). the
Idea of humans might be enhancing the natural greenhouse, come from when?
the origins of the idea that humans might be enhancing the natural greenhouse effect through emissions of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) stretch back into the nineteenth century (tyndall 1863; arrhenius 1896a 1896b), but it did not 'fire the imagination of the scientific community' until the 1970s (kellogg 1987, 113
How climate change affects the media?
now the annual total of climate-related publications is doubling every decade (stanhill 2001). as the scope of the challenge to societies posed by climate change has become apparent, policymakers have sought a better understanding of the possible consequences of climate change on all spatial scales
What does IPCC stands for?
the inter-governmental panel on climate change
the origins of the idea that humans might be enhancing the natural greenhouse effect through emissions of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) stretch back into the nineteenth century (tyndall 1863; arrhenius 1896a 1896b), but it did not 'fire the imagination of the scientific community' until the 1970s (kellogg 1987, 113). now the annual total of climate-related publications is doubling every decade (stanhill 2001). as the scope of the challenge to societies posed by climate change has become apparent, policymakers have sought a better understanding of the possible consequences of climate change on all spatial scales. in recent years, much emphasis has been placed on the regional variations in climate change, climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. in particular, the inter-governmental panel on climate change (ipcc) has specifically provided:
Which two years had "big freeze" events that damaged burst pipes and water mains?
december 1995 and january 1996
Who provided the evidence of the events?
the evidence submitted by the scottish and northern ireland plumbing employer's federation
What was the enquiry called?
scottish affairs committee inquiry 39
increasingly extreme weather events are associated not only with higher temperatures but also with the problems of freeze. extreme cold events cause real challenges for many homes. the ' big freeze ' of december 1995 and january 1996 caused widespread damage from burst pipes and water mains. the evidence submitted by the scottish and northern ireland plumbing employer's federation to the subsequent scottish affairs committee inquiry 39 highlighted the concern that many householders did not know how to or could not shut off the cold water supply. many flats and tenements had no isolation valve for individual properties. the scale of burst
which systems are affected by rapid climate change?
rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems
What is the  concern for species conservation related to climate change?
a concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments
What is the scope of present study related to climate change and species conservation?
here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous us during the 20th century (1916 - 2005). vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data
rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. a concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous us during the 20th century (1916 - 2005). vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate-driven species range shifts during the 20th century.
How many classifications of climate risk are there?
an initial categorization determines whether a project falls in one of the following categories: (a) projects that may affect the environment in a major way (e.g. major infrastructure development projects), for which a full environmental impact assessment (eia) is required. (b) projects that are not expected to have large negative impacts on the environment, but that do affect the environment. in such cases, a partial eia is required. (c) projects where no eia is needed
What is an essential part of the screening process?
an essential part of the screening is to identify those project components which are not climate sensitive and which can therefore be prudently dropped from further consideration
What can an assessor refer to for assistance in making their determination?
in the bank's climate risk management knowledge base described in section 3.2
in order to select where to focus attention across the entire spectrum of bank operations, it would be helpful to routinely classify projects that enter the project cycle using an initial risk screening process. we suggest the development of a very simple approach modeled upon the widespread practice of environmental impact assessment. it is routine for bank projects to be assessed in terms of their potential impact upon the environment. an initial categorization determines whether a project falls in one of the following categories: (a) projects that may affect the environment in a major way (e.g. major infrastructure development projects), for which a full environmental impact assessment (eia) is required. (b) projects that are not expected to have large negative impacts on the environment, but that do affect the environment. in such cases, a partial eia is required. (c) projects where no eia is needed. while we do not suggest a mandatory requirement, there would be merit in a similar classification of projects in terms of climate risks6. hence, we propose a routine screening for climate risks, where the question concerns the extent to which the project could be affected by such risks. screening is carried out at the time of identification, where projects are assigned to one of three categories on the basis on the nature, magnitude and sensitivity to the climate risk issues, and are so designated in the initial executive project summary (ieps). the proposed screening will normally be done by the task manager, with advice and assistance as appropriate. it should not take any special expert analysis, and only the time required to consider the information available about potential risks (ideally, in the bank's climate risk management knowledge base described in section 3.2). an essential part of the screening is to identify those project components which are not climate sensitive and which can therefore be prudently dropped from further consideration. for the other project components, which may be affected by climate risks, the purpose of screening is to ensure that the appropriate amount of attention can be devoted to these risks from the very outset of the project cycle. it also serves to determine the type of climate risk assessment which is needed so that those risks can be addressed effectively in project planning, design, appraisal, implementation and supervision.
What do the MAECHAM4/CHEM results not showing a prominent lower stratospheric peak suggest?
this suggests that for short simulations the difficulty of separating the qbo signal is leading more to aliasing lee and smith 2003] than a direct impact
What is a possible resolution of the contrast between results?
a possible resolution therefore of the apparent contrast between the results here and those published [e.g., mccormack 2003] is that most of the simulations are now long enough for the statistical impact of the solar cycle to be separated from the qbo
the results obtained in the lower stratosphere were largely independent of whether or not the qbo was present. however, in earlier results in which tropical wind was not included as an independent variable, maecham4/chem results did not show a prominent lower stratospheric peak. this suggests that for short simulations the difficulty of separating the qbo signal is leading more to aliasing lee and smith 2003] than a direct impact. a possible resolution therefore of the apparent contrast between the results here and those published [e.g., mccormack 2003] is that most of the simulations are now long enough for the statistical impact of the solar cycle to be separated from the qbo. nonetheless it is possible that the qbo is partially contributing to the results for a given model [e.g., mccormack et al. 2007], but that this is a smaller effect than the differences between models. in results shown here, the ozone solar response was also found to be relatively insensitive to period, once the aliasing of the ssts with the solar cycle during the years 1960-1981 was considered. aside from this complication of the correlation between the ssts and the solar cycle, by using the observed ssts instead of climatological values the models might be expected to simulate improved, stronger tropospheric wave forcing which is no longer smoothed as much over time. the brewer-dobson circulation is then more realistic, resulting in an improvement in the simulated sensitivity to the solar cycle of ozone transport. this would imply the need for observed ssts and a fully varying solar phase, as have been incorporated in the model simulations here. support for these arguments comes from additional simulations of models used here austin et al. 2007a; marsh et al. 2007] as well as the many simulations shown by soukharev and hood [2006] in which the lower stratospheric tropical maximum response is not well reproduced with climatological ssts and fixed phase solar forcing. it would be natural to conclude that the correct details of the forcings are needed to obtain the correct lower stratospheric transport, and hence to simulate the secondary lower stratospheric ozone peak response. however, recently other models have been able to simulate this feature using climatological ssts and fixed solar forcing (maximum/ minimum) schmidt and brasseur 2006; t. nagashima, personal communication, 2007]. a pertinent question would be whether those models produce a stronger double peak structure when the observed forcings are used.
why will these systems protect against erosion and nutrient leakage?
since there is no soil tillage and a permanent crop cover, these systems will also accumulate soil carbon and protect against erosion and nutrient leakage
why must policies need to take regional conditions into account?
policies therefore need to take regionally specific conditions into account
where can feedstock for biorefineries be produced?
feedstock for biorefineries can be produced in perennial cropping systems that have a much lower input intensity in terms of energy use
compared with most current food and feed crops, feedstock for biorefineries can be produced in perennial cropping systems that have a much lower input intensity in terms of energy use, fertilizer input and pesticides. since there is no soil tillage and a permanent crop cover, these systems will also accumulate soil carbon and protect against erosion and nutrient leakage. in many areas, such systems are likely candidates for cropping systems in environmentally sensitive areas and for reclaiming degraded lands. nevertheless, the optimal use and performance of biomass production is regionally specific. policies therefore need to take regionally specific conditions into account, and need to incorporate the agricultural and livestock sector as part of good governance of land-use and rural development, interlinked with developing bioenergy. the authors are grateful to the organizers and sponsors of the conference climate change: global risks, challenges and decisions, held in copenhagen 10-12 march 2009 for supporting attendance as session co-chairs, from which this paper arose. pete smith is a royal society-wolfson research merit award holder. the contribution of pete smith to this paper contributes to the nerc-quest-funded quatermass project and the eu-funded nitroeurope-ip, cctame, carbo-extreme and ghg-europe projects. the contribution of jorgen eivind olesen was part of the dffe-funded bioman project. references
What are the disadvantages of SGI
sgi also carries certain risks and limitations as an adaptive strategy, as crop diseases and water shortages affect the yields of tomato production and sometimes endanger the whole harvest
What benefits does SGI provide?
sgi has positive adaptive effects for many practicing small-scale farmers, and results in higher food security and standards of living
What needs to be considered in discussions of local adaptive capacities?
it is the double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalisation, the intensification of trade and the falling of political barriers towards trade (at least in the south) that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed
furthermore, sgi has positive adaptive effects for many practicing small-scale farmers, and results in higher food security and standards of living. nevertheless, sgi also carries certain risks and limitations as an adaptive strategy, as crop diseases and water shortages affect the yields of tomato production and sometimes endanger the whole harvest. in particular, intensified and expanded sgi can become a threat to other water users and cause environmental problems, as can be seen in south asia, the middle east or northern africa, where unsustainable groundwater irrigation leads to problems such as regionally lowered groundwater tables, the decreasing quality and availability of domestic or industrial water, saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers and the drying up of groundwater-related wetlands (comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture 2007 176 ff). nevertheless, groundwater irrigation and sgi in particular, especially in areas with low yielding aquifers, where regional overexploitation is unlikely since the drawdown of individual wells becomes excessive, could be an important low-cost cornerstone of poverty reduction and climate change adaptation in africa, if paralleled by adequate resource mapping and management (macdonald et al. 2009 the largest threat to the local irrigation economy, however, is neither a diminishing resource base nor imperfect agricultural practices. while farmers try to integrate in the larger economy in order to overcome poverty and to adapt to environmental changes, they become subject to market failures that are partially the result of monopolistic local market channels, but are also in their essence caused by unfair and unpredictable patterns of global trade. this observation is not new, and many development efforts and initiatives for economic growth have been doomed to failure under the prevailing macro-economic conditions of global markets. however, it is the double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalisation, the intensification of trade and the falling of political barriers towards trade (at least in the south) that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed. there are already enough convincing arguments that call for the revision of some of the most unfair and devastating economic practices; however, the need to enhance adaptive capacity towards global climate change for poor parts of the population in the south should be added to the discussion.
What are parameters used in LaD scheme?
the rooting depth, non-water-stressed (nws) bulk stomatal resistance, surface roughness length, snow-free surface albedo, and snow-masking depth
To which the rooting depth is directly related to?
to the water-holding capacity of the root zone
Why less moisture is available for evapotransportation?
precipitation is more likely to be removed by surface runoff
to facilitate the discussion of the physical processes modeled in studies of land cover change, a general schematic is provided in fig. 2 for the example of conversion from forest to grassland. as discussed in detail below, changes in land cover lead to changes in parameters controlling the use of available water and energy at the surface. in the lad scheme, altered surface parameters include the rooting depth, non-water-stressed (nws) bulk stomatal resistance, surface roughness length, snow-free surface albedo, and snow-masking depth. these model-prescribed parameters are shown in bold in fig. 2, with increases and decreases associated with the parameterization implemented in the gfdl model. values of each of these parameters are listed in table 1 for each of the cover types (see milly and shmakin 2002a for more details). figure 3 maps differences resulting from parameter changes between the all1990 and the natveg simulations. the rooting depth is directly related to the water-holding capacity of the root zone shown in fig. 3, and the snow-masking depth is directly related to the critical snowmass (the snow amount that hides half the surface) listed in table 1. three model-prescribed parameters directly influence the hydrologic cycle through their influence on evapotranspiration e ): the rooting depth, the roughness length, and the non-water-stressed bulk stomatal resistance (top-left side of fig. 2). decreases in the rooting depth effectively reduce the maximum waterholding capacity (the soil moisture reservoir size) of the grid cell. for a given rainfall event, a small soil moisture reservoir is more likely to saturate than a large reservoir, so precipitation is more likely to be removed by surface runoff, leaving less moisture available for evapotranspiration. decreases in the roughness length (grasslands typically are shorter than forests) lead to decreases in turbulent mixing in the boundary layer and decreased evapotranspiration, although the effect is small in the model. changes in the non-water-stressed bulk stomatal resistance (effectively including changes in leaf-scale stomatal resistance and leaf area) influence the ease with which water can pass from the plant to the atmosphere: increased resistance results in less evapotranspiration in the model. for the lad parameter settings used in the gfdl model, changes of any one of these three parameters lead to decreased evapotranspiration in the tropics when forests are converted to grasslands. where midlatitude forests are replaced with grasslands, decreased stomatal resistance increases evapotranspiration, while the roughness length and rooting depth changes reduce evapotranspiration through similar processes as those operating in the tropics. as will be discussed in the next two sections, the net effect of these changes is decreased evapotranspiration in most regions in the gfdl model. other parameters altered in most studies of land cover change impact the surface albedo. in the gfdl model, the relevant parameters are snow-free albedo and snow-masking depth (top right of fig. 2). when forests are converted to grasslands, the snow-free albedo increases and the snow-masking depth decreases. the effect of the former parameter change is to increase the surface albedo year-round in tropical regions and during periods with no snow cover in middle and high latitudes. the effect of the latter parameter change
What is the intention of the second test listed in the text above?
fig. 9b was performed to investigate the impact of natural ventilation and the heat released by people and equipments
What was the purpose of the third related test indicated in Fig. 9c?
the third test (fig. 9c was carried out to study the effect of the convective heat coefficients at the external surfaces.3
the second test (fig. 9b was performed to investigate the impact of natural ventilation and the heat released by people and equipments. one simulation was done without people or equipments " no people " case, php=0 and qe=0 in eq. 3 ), and another with no ventilation " no ventilation " case, b =1 in eq. 3 ). for this winter simulation, the impact of people and equipments is of about 150 kw during daytime (during night time people were absent also in the base case). it is also interesting to notice the importance of ventilation: for this winter case, during the night, the lack of ventilation results in a decrease in energy consumption, while during daytime, energy is required to cool down the air in the building2heated up by the radiation, and internal sources (people and equipments). the third test (fig. 9c was carried out to study the effect of the convective heat coefficients at the external surfaces.3
What is the difference between thermophilic aerobic digestion than conventional aerobic digestion system?
the difference is that it operates in a thermophilic phase due to some alterations in the concept and operation of the system
How does the process of  the sludge work in process of thermophilic aerobic digestion ?
in this process, the sludge is generally pre-thickened and operates with two aerobic stages, without the need of introducing energy to raise the temperature
the process of thermophilic aerobic digestion (also called autothermal digestion) follows the same principles as the conventional aerobic digestion system. the difference is that it operates in a thermophilic phase due to some alterations in the concept and operation of the system. in this process, the sludge is generally pre-thickened and operates with two aerobic stages, without the need of introducing energy to raise the temperature. since the reaction volume is small, the system is closed and the concentration of solids in the sludge is higher, the heat released from the aerobic reactions heats the sludge to temperatures higher than 50*c in the first stage and 60*c in the second. due to the temperature increase the pathogenic microorganisms are reduced to overview of sludge treatment and disposal 273
What makes up 3/4 of all the CO2 emitted by human activities?
three-quarters of all the co2 emitted by human activities is from burning fossil fuels
What makes up the remaining 1/4 of all CO2 emitted by human activities?
the rest mostly comes from deforestation
The Kyoto Protocol's goal was to reduce emissions to an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels of greenhouse gases by what year?
at the core of the protocol is an agreement to reduce emissions by an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels of greenhouse gases by the year 2012
three-quarters of all the co2 emitted by human activities is from burning fossil fuels.4the rest mostly comes from deforestation. the ipcc concludes that an immediate reduction of 50-70 percent of carbon dioxide emissions is necessary to stabilize the concentrations in the atmosphere. in their most recent report, they state that "eventually co2 emissions would need to decline to a very small fraction of current emissions." faced with this looming climate crisis, the global community of states response has been passage of the kyoto protocol in 1997, slowly ratified by 156 countries, and infamously rejected by the world's biggest polluter - the us. at the core of the protocol is an agreement to reduce emissions by an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels of greenhouse gases by the year 2012.5larry lohmann vividly sums up the inadequacy:
What does the research suggest?
the research reported on below suggests that denial over the necessity to adjust behaviour and lifestyle patterns is a function of discourse as it is of more fundamental personal, social and psychological in uences that are not readily shifted around by language or by exhortation unless the process of awareness raising is prolonged and set in constructive engagement with a wider array of socially sanctioned moral norms
When confronted with evidence of individual responsibility for the possible characteristics of a future climate, what did respondents in a managerial authority realize?
when confronted with the evidence of individual responsibility for the possible characteristics of a future climate, respondents in a position of managerial authority realised how inadequately prepared they were for making e ective choices
How does the methodological framework fit in?
this conclusion ts into the methodological framework for the case study that follows
the signi cance of the research quoted above is that, when confronted with the evidence of individual responsibility for the possible characteristics of a future climate, respondents in a position of managerial authority realised how inadequately prepared they were for making e ective choices. this conclusion ts into the methodological framework for the case study that follows. the research reported on below suggests that denial over the necessity to adjust behaviour and lifestyle patterns is a function of discourse as it is of more fundamental personal, social and psychological in uences that are not readily shifted around by language or by exhortation unless the process of awareness raising is prolonged and set in constructive engagement with a wider array of socially sanctioned moral norms. kasemir et al. (1999, p. 3) conclude:
What is category 3's effect on external risk?
project does not (negatively) affect external vulnerability
What are examples of Category 3?
examples include market reform, human rights and good governance projects
The longer the typical lifetime of the project components and their effects, the more what?
the more likely it is that climate change (or other trends) will be important
category 3 (no or low risk): direct risk: project is not sensitive to climate risks at all, effect on external risk: project does not (negatively) affect external vulnerability. examples include market reform, human rights and good governance projects (in fact, some of these projects would not even require the climate information from element 1 and could immediately be classified in this category). as mentioned above, given the large overlaps between vulnerability to climate change and vulnerability to current climate risks, this proposed screening process essentially captures both. although the first trends and impacts are already with us, a general rule of thumb could be that the longer the typical lifetime of the project components and their effects, the more likely it is that climate change (or other trends) will be important.
What does the second component of calculation permit?
an agent to return a higher value towards a migration option if they have previous experience of migration, either to the destination in question or another
What is the calculation of the experience rate defined on the basis of?
an agent's experience of migration to the destination in question and their experience of migration in general
In the formation of an experience rate that contributes to the value, each prior experience of migration to the destination in question results in a value of?
0.1
the second component of the calculation permits an agent to return a higher value towards a migration option if they have previous experience of migration, either to the destination in question or another. calculation of the experience rate ), defined on the basis of an agent's experience of migration to the destination in question and their experience of migration in general is performed on the basis of equation s.3. in the formation of an experience rate that contributes to the value, each prior experience of migration to the destination in question results in a value of 0.1. if, for example, an agent has migrated to the destination in question on four previous occasions they will return a value of 0.4. intended to have a more marginal impact upon the experience rate, an agent will score 0.05 towards their for every experience they have of migration to destinations other than that being considered. an agent that has migrated to other destinations a total of six times will therefore return a value of 0.3. the combination of and values represent the total number of times an agent has migrated within their lifetime. throughout the duration of model execution, or an age nt's lifetime, may ordinarily range from 0 to a maximum of approximately 1 (scored for example as five migrations to the selected destination and 10 to others).
What is there a general consensus that?
it is important to strengthen the adaptation component under the unfccc when designing post-2012 agreements
What is a very difficult possibility?
is to make use of the provisions of the human rights convention for the protection of refugees to deal with possible forced migration as a consequence of climate change impacts
What would help the mainstreaming?
linking insurance mechanisms to a new agreement, drawing on international platforms such as the unep finance initiative
there is general consensus that it is important to strengthen the adaptation component under the unfccc when designing post-2012 agreements (aerts et al., 2005). but how can this be done to facilitate integrated development and climate approaches to deal with climate variability and change? one possibility is to create a close link at the level of a post-kyoto agreement with the isdr hyogo framework for action 2005-2015 that is already integrating climate change risks into national and local disaster preparedness and risk reduction plans (unisdr, 2006). the same could be done regarding existing and future bilateral and multilateral development assistance and poverty reduction programmes (african development bank et al., 2003; wri, 2005; world bank, 2006b), for instance by establishing formal reporting requirements. a very different possibility is to make use of the provisions of the human rights convention for the protection of refugees to deal with possible forced migration as a consequence of climate change impacts (un security council, 2007). furthermore, linking insurance mechanisms to a new agreement, drawing on international platforms such as the unep finance initiative, would help the mainstreaming. last, but not least, it would make sense to create links with the un convention on combating desertification, which deals with adaptation to drought. an additional advantage of integrating implementation of various international frameworks and agreements is the simplification of the administrative burden in developing countries.
what is Vulnerability?
vulnerability is a term increasingly used in policy to describe the risks posed to rural communities by climate variability and change
what is the use of converting  concept of vulnerability into analytical measures?
that can be used to prioritise policy interventions and evaluate their impact
why do demand for research to prioritise adaptation policy rise ?
demand for research to prioritise adaptation policy throughout society has arisen from an increasing awareness of the potential threat posed by a changing climate. climate-related research and extension in australia since the 1980s has focused on applications of seasonal climate forecasting to manage the production risks associated with climate variability within existing farming systems meinke and stone, 2005 
vulnerability is a term increasingly used in policy to describe the risks posed to rural communities by climate variability and change. despite its frequent use, the concept of vulnerability is rarely converted into analytical measures that can be used to prioritise policy interventions and evaluate their impact. demand for research to prioritise adaptation policy throughout society has arisen from an increasing awareness of the potential threat posed by a changing climate. climate-related research and extension in australia since the 1980s has focused on applications of seasonal climate forecasting to manage the production risks associated with climate variability within existing farming systems meinke and stone, 2005 ). at the time of writing, the types of science available to inform rural policy associated with adaptation to climate change in australia were continuing to build on this heritage of hazard and impact modelling hennessy et al., 2008 ). both these streams of research continue to pursue greater predictive skill over longer time horizons using new generations of global climate models. the paradox that we address in this paper is whether adhering to this approach risks
What does the VIC hydrologic model predict?
vic hydrologic model (liang et al. 1994) implemented over the columbia river basin to predict changes in streamflow over the next century relative to a baseline 1916-2006 period
What model was used to estimate hydropower production?
to estimate hydropower production, the colsim reservoir simulation model (hamlet and lettenmaier 1999; see also figure 1) was used
What are historical "modified" streamflow data sets?
historical "modified" streamflow data sets (which are estimates of the flows that would have occurred in the absence of the reservoir system, adjusted for a consistent level of consumptive water use for irrigation
vic hydrologic model (liang et al. 1994) implemented over the columbia river basin to predict changes in streamflow over the next century relative to a baseline 1916-2006 period. elsner et al. (2009, this report) describe the vic model implementation, and the model forcing data sets. vic streamflow simulations were bias adjusted at monthly time scales using methods described by snover et al. (2003). historical "modified" streamflow data sets (which are estimates of the flows that would have occurred in the absence of the reservoir system, adjusted for a consistent level of consumptive water use for irrigation), used to train the bias adjustment process, were originally prepared for the bpa and cover the period 1928-1999 (bpa 2004). to estimate hydropower production, the colsim reservoir simulation model (hamlet and lettenmaier 1999; see also figure 1) was used to simulate reservoir operations resulting in energy production at 20 major projects in the basin for a historic baseline period of 1917-2006 (one year, 1916, required for spin-up), and the same group of water years extracted from the future delta-method scenarios described above. hamlet and lettenmaier
What is an example of resilience thinking?
a livelihood perspective pushes further to situate local thresholds as influencing and influenced by wider development transformations, such as processes of democratization, globalization, social and political movements, urbanization, and diffusion of information and communications technology
Why is adaptation sometimes recast as a contested transformation?
some forms of adaptation may impoverish people and build very powerful systems of negative resilience
these extensions of resilience thinking are critical. a livelihood perspective pushes further to situate local thresholds as influencing and influenced by wider development transformations, such as processes of democratization, globalization, social and political movements, urbanization, and diffusion of information and communications technology. focusing on these transformational aspects of resilience helps us to consider radically different livelihood strategies that may be necessary to respond to climate change and the significant tradeoffs involved. some forms of adaptation may impoverish people and build very powerful systems of negative resilience. in this way, adaptation, for example from traditional modes of agriculture to more precarious urban waged employment, is recast as a contested transformation. adaptation of this kind can therefore be seen as a process of triage involving the things society values least, with some adaptive responses equated to the relinquishing of certain values, development goals and possibly even the acceptance of conditions of poverty. instead, livelihood resilience, as we frame it here, prioritizes reformulations of livelihood systems that enable the most vulnerable people to navigate potentially destabilizing global changes on their own terms, in ways that protect basic human dignity.
How many insights are needed to identify candidate processes for path dependence?
the literature on policy development yields two insights for identifying candidate pathdependent processes
What did Baumgartner and Jones 1993 say about how apparently stable?
baumgartner and jones 1993 have asserted that seemingly stable policies are often ''punctuated,'' moving them to a new equilibrium
They also highlight the potential to misdiagnose what?
they also underscore the potential of misdiagnosing progressive incremental processes as single-shot paradigmatic
policy development the literature on policy development yields two insights for identifying candidate pathdependent processes. first, change and stability in policy choices must be tracked over time (clemens and cook 1999 mayhew 2002 ). baumgartner and jones 1993 have asserted that seemingly stable policies are often ''punctuated,'' moving them to a new equilibrium. the implication is that policy analysts should focus on better understanding when ''windows'' or ''triggers'' cause such punctuations. cashore and howlett 2007 ), drawing on durrant and diehl 1989 ), help identify the policy implications of different approaches to trying to create such punctuations that are relevant to super wicked problems. they conceptualized four types of policy development that differentiate change that is progressive and transformative from change that does not reflect a new punctuated equilibrium. two types of change are in equilibrium: ''faux paradigmatic'' in which what appears to be a significant change only ends up being reversed (often following the election of a new government); and ''classic incremental'' in which small changes oscillate creating limited behavioral change and/or impact on the policy problem. two other processes of policy development head toward a new equilibrium: the ''classic paradigmatic'' in which a single-shot big change occurs that is not reversed; and the much less studied ''progressive incrementalism,'' where policy development is characterized by steps, which can accumulate over days, weeks, months, years, and decades to produce significant results (table 2 ). these distinctions are important to avoid misdiagnosing those short-term, single-shot large changes as transformative that are more likely ''faux paradigmatic'' (such as when major initiatives of one political party are reversed following the election of the opposition party). they also underscore the potential of misdiagnosing progressive incremental processes as single-shot paradigmatic. often antecedent and unexplored progressive incremental forces that create, and lead to, well studied ''tipping points'' are not sufficiently recognized.6this neglect justifies our focus on these potential progressive incremental triggers, and drawing on these lessons, to apply them forward. finally, the time dimension of progressive incrementalism requires careful attention: actors who attempt to trigger such change must assess whether there is a plausible logic that an intervention, or set of interventions, is likely to unleash a path-dependent process that can change behavior before the time runs out to address the super wicked problem in question. the second insight from the policy development literature is that different ''levels'' or ''orders'' of policy characterizing a policy regime--from goals and broad instrument preferences to specific technical settings and calibrations--may change and remain stable according to different causal processes (cashore and howlett 2007 ). to better understand these processes, and to chart the course of policy change, analysts focusing on triggering policy solutions for super wicked problems must recognize and disentangle these different levels and the opportunities they provide. at each level, for instance, the role played by government officials may vary. specific details of policy are often easier for bureaucrats to change than broad policy goals (hall 1993 ). this is because government officials almost always have more discretion in fine-tuning (e.g., changing the speed limit from 60 to 55 miles an hour) than changing overarching goals (e.g., to reduce traffic deaths or auto emissions), which come from, and are reinforced by, engrained
what is the name of the two river systems that is responsible for the droughts
krishna and mahanad
what is the name of the climate scenario
ghg
what period is this referring to?
2041-2060 period
the model has then been run on each of the basins using ghg climate scenario (representing 2041-2060 period) data but without changing the land use. the outputs of these two scenarios have been analysed firstly at the basin level to quantify the possible impacts on the precipitation, runoff, soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration. subsequently, detailed analyses have been performed on the river basins to quantify the impacts at the sub-basin level. in the latter exercise relatively shorter time interval of month has been used in the analyses (although the detailed outputs at daily time interval are available at the subbasin level). due to paucity of space, analysis of only two of the river systems, namely krishna and mahanadi is presented to demonstrate the impacts at the sub-basin level. these are the river basins that have been predicted to experience maximum effect with respect to droughts and floods respectively.
Are the sedimentation fluxes of falling NC used in the simulation computations?
meanwhile, the sedimentation fluxes of falling nc are neglected, as in qc
Which concentrations do the freezing-melting processes account for?
the freezing-melting processes, which account for the rain and cloud water number concentrations
Why is the CCN activation computed just before the condensation-evaporation process of cloud water?
the ccn activation is computed just before the condensation-evaporation process of cloud water to ensure that any supersaturated water vapor does not pass to the dynamical process
in the wdm6 scheme, sedimentation fluxes for both nr and qr are computed. thus, differential settling between drops can be simulated. the sedimentation process of nr is computed before the source-sink terms. meanwhile, the sedimentation fluxes of falling nc are neglected, as in qc. the freezing-melting processes, which account for the rain and cloud water number concentrations, are considered during the fall-term substeps as in the wsm6 microphysics scheme. the saturation mixing ratios over water and ice are calculated directly, and ccn activation and condensation occur under supersaturated conditions. the ccn activation is computed just before the condensation-evaporation process of cloud water to ensure that any supersaturated water vapor does not pass to the dynamical process. for other detailed computational procedures refer to hong and lim (2006).
For how many lakes did you collect data?
we obtained data for 47 609 canadian lakes for which 13 072 lakes had information on surface or near-surface water temperature
Which variables you used for collecting data?
variables for which we collected corresponding data for each lake included: latitude, longitude (expressed as a negative number to make it suitable for use in arcgis), surface area, volume, maximum depth, mean depth, shoreline perimeter, elevation, water temperature (near-surface from 0 to 2 m), water temperature measurement depth, conductivity, secchi depth, total phosphorous concentration, total dissolved solids concentration, ph, dissolved oxygen concentration, and sampling date
Which data did you collect?
we collected data on maximum lake water temperature (based on surface or near-surface measurements) and corresponding lake morphology, water chemistry and climate data from a variety of academic and government institutions across canada
we collected data on maximum lake water temperature (based on surface or near-surface measurements) and corresponding lake morphology, water chemistry and climate data from a variety of academic and government institutions across canada. we obtained data for 47 609 canadian lakes for which 13 072 lakes had information on surface or near-surface water temperature (fig. 1). we only included one water-temperature value for each lake selecting the temperature that was the maximum water temperature recorded for that lake. variables for which we collected corresponding data for each lake included: latitude, longitude (expressed as a negative number to make it suitable for use in arcgis), surface area, volume, maximum depth, mean depth, shoreline perimeter, elevation, water temperature (near-surface from 0 to 2 m), water temperature measurement depth, conductivity, secchi depth, total phosphorous concentration, total dissolved solids concentration, ph, dissolved oxygen concentration, and sampling date. climatic variables were obtained from
What is the key to adaptive management?
the key to adaptive management rests on overcoming the tendency to defer difficult decisions and radical departures from existing policies until either more information is available or natural events produce more favorable outcomes
What could be the role of a coordinating body at the international level?
a coordinating body working at the international level could facilitate this process by playing the role of an information clearinghouse, advisory board, and monitor for climate management. such an institution would foster long-term consistency and help translate varying experiences with climate management into new policy recommendations
How must climate managers and policy makers develop new ideas?
climate managers and policy makers must develop new ideas by explicitly seeking out analogies or similarities between problems of current concern and others where advances have been possible (walters 1986
the key to adaptive management rests on overcoming the tendency to defer difficult decisions and radical departures from existing policies until either more information is available or natural events produce more favorable outcomes. climate managers and policy makers must develop new ideas by explicitly seeking out analogies or similarities between problems of current concern and others where advances have been possible (walters 1986). a coordinating body working at the international level could facilitate this process by playing the role of an information clearinghouse, advisory board, and monitor for climate management. such an institution would foster long-term consistency and help translate varying experiences with climate management into new policy recommendations.
What is the percentage of contribution to aid budgets?
one per cent gdp
Would politicians be elected if equality between people was established?
 few politicians would be elected on a platform of a major transfer of wealth from the industrialized nations to the developing countries necessary to equalize current living standards
If the rate of time preference is higher, can the growth component be smaller or larger?
so, although the time preference rate may be higher, the growth component may be lower
so the moral case for a zero time discounting should not be taken as given, but rather as highly contentious, and, not surprisingly, it is unlikely to be a prime motivation to the negotiations on future climate-change policy. in practice, we do not take equality between people in different locations now very seriously: few politicians would be elected on a platform of a major transfer of wealth from the industrialized nations to the developing countries necessary to equalize current living standards. one per cent gdp contributions to aid budgets remains the meagre global ambition. this matters, because any plausible set of policies to stabilize emissions at the ipcc-recommended levels will require significant transfers from industrialized to developing countries, and such transfers based upon self-interest are likely to be very different from those based on the idea of inter-generational equity. behaviourally, then, there is little basis for assuming that voters and governments will in fact use a zero time-preference rate. the case for urgent action now rests rather on the non-discounting reasons: that the damage is likely to be great, and, indeed, that the fat-tail argument should be taken seriously. where the discounting issue matters is not so much in time-preference assumptions but rather in the impact of global warming on economic growth--the 2-3 per cent per annum growth assumption. because of the direct damage, because environmental capital and man-made capital are not such easy substitutes, future generations may not be so much better off--and so they will not be so well placed to offset the environmental damage with their greater man-made capital and associated technologies. as argued in section iv, economic growth may not be so easily compatible with the effects of, and mitigation costs of, climate change. so, although the time preference rate may be higher, the growth component may be lower.
How to understand recent changes in the climate system?
understanding recent changes in the climate system results from combining observations, studies of feedback processes, and model simulations
It is possible to evaluate the ability of climate models to simulate recent changes?
evaluation of the ability of climate models to simulate recent changes requires consideration of the state of all modelled climate system components at the start of the simulation and the natural and anthropogenic forcing used to drive the models
There is a influence of the humans in the climate system?
human influence on the climate system is clear. this is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system
understanding recent changes in the climate system results from combining observations, studies of feedback processes, and model simulations. evaluation of the ability of climate models to simulate recent changes requires consideration of the state of all modelled climate system components at the start of the simulation and the natural and anthropogenic forcing used to drive the models. compared to ar4, more detailed and longer observations and improved climate models now enable the attribution of a human contribution to detected changes in more climate system components. human influence on the climate system is clear. this is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. {2-14}
Explain spatial patterns?
the spatial patterns of the mean winter (march) and summer (september) sea-ice cover 1978-2002
What is the sea-ice concentration during winter and summer trends?
the winter and summer trends (linear regressions) in sea-ice concentration from 1978-2002 are indicated i
Explian decrease in winter scenario?
the decreases in winter have been most pronounced (as large as ~ 50%) in the barents and greenland seas, whereas the summer decreases have been greater than 50% in some areas of the beaufort and chukchi seas, and as large as ~ 30-50% in the siberian marginal seas
the spatial patterns of the mean winter (march) and summer (september) sea-ice cover 1978-2002 are shown in figs 4a and 4b. the winter and summer trends (linear regressions) in sea-ice concentration from 1978-2002 are indicated in figs 4c and d. during this period, the decreases in winter have been most pronounced (as large as ~ 50%) in the barents and greenland seas, whereas the summer decreases have been greater than 50% in some areas of the beaufort and chukchi seas, and as large as ~ 30-50% in the siberian marginal seas. these summer patterns are in agreement with an independent analysis
In how many categories can relevant categories be grouped into?
relevant studies can be grouped into three categories: journalistic ''case studies'', studies that identified conditions that might lead to unintended consequences, and empirical studies that examined whether unintended consequences actually occurred
How much percentage of industry-university research centers allow firms the ability to delete information from center reports?
1994 report that approximately 35% of industry-university research centers allow firms the ability to delete information from center reports
Which stories does Science and the Chronicle of Higher Education regularly features?
for instance, science and the chronicle of higher educa tion regularly feature stories on controversial cooperative research initiatives
relevant studies can be grouped into three categories: journalistic ''case studies'', studies that identified conditions that might lead to unintended consequences, and empirical studies that examined whether unintended consequences actually occurred. journalistic case studies and studies of conditions that might promote conflicts are relatively common. for instance, science and the chronicle of higher educa tion regularly feature stories on controversial cooperative research initiatives. however, these pieces generally point out potential not actual unintended z consequences e.g., cuilliton, 1982; blum, 1991 similarly, a number of studies have examined whether cooperation creates conditions that might predispose faculty to ethical or value compromises, or otherwise distort faculty behavior. for instance, z cohen et al. 1994 report that approximately 35% of industry-university research centers allow firms the ability to delete information from center reports and over 50% allow the right to delay publication. bluz menthal et al. 1986a; b report a similar finding. z campbell 1997 reports that faculty who were engaged in collaborative activities were more likely to be supportive of various practices which might lead z to conflicts e.g., exclusive licensing of technology than non-collaborating faculty on one of three scales: financially based conflicts. while these reports have caused some to react with alarm, others have cautioned that the potential for problems and the growth of supportive conditions are not prima facie evidence z of negative effects lee, 1996 unfortunately, since we were only able to find four empirical studies which addressed unintended consequences and their findings are not completely consistent, we are still a long way from resolving this debate.
How quickly does oxygen dissolve in water?
oxygen is a gas that dissolves poorly in the liquid medium. for this reason, in various wastewater treatment systems it is necessary to accelerate the natural process
What does aeration mean?
aeration is a unit operation of fundamental importance in a large number of aerobic wastewater treatment processes. when a liquid is deficient in a gas (oxygen, in this case), there is a natural tendency of the gas to pass from the gas phase, where it is present in sufficient concentrations, to the liquid phase, where it is deficient
where is artificial aeration used today?
among the wastewater treatment processes that use artificial aeration are aerated lagoons, activated sludge and its variants, aerated biofilters and other more specific processes
aeration is a unit operation of fundamental importance in a large number of aerobic wastewater treatment processes. when a liquid is deficient in a gas (oxygen, in this case), there is a natural tendency of the gas to pass from the gas phase, where it is present in sufficient concentrations, to the liquid phase, where it is deficient. oxygen is a gas that dissolves poorly in the liquid medium. for this reason, in various wastewater treatment systems it is necessary to accelerate the natural process, in such a way that the oxygen supply may occur at a higher rate, compatible with the biomass utilisation rate. among the wastewater treatment processes that use artificial aeration are aerated lagoons, activated sludge and its variants, aerated biofilters and other more specific processes. in terms of sludge treatment, aerobic digesters also use artificial aeration. there are two main forms of producing artificial aeration:
What is forestry offsets about?
forest ecology and management 257 (2009) 2209-2216 when included as part of a larger greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions reduction program, forest offsets may provide low-cost opportunities for ghg mitigation. one barrier to including forest offsets in climate policy is the risk of reversal, the intentional or unintentional release of carbon back to the atmosphere due to storms, fire, pests, land use decisions, and many other factors
What are the strategies created to reduce the impact of the financial and forestry implications of the reversal?
to address this shortcoming, a variety of different strategies have emerged to minimize either the risk or the financial and environmental implications of reversal. these strategies range from management decisions made at the individual stand level to buffers and set-asides that function across entire trading programs. for such strategies to work, the actual risk and magnitude of potential reversals need to be clearly understood. in this paper we examine three factors that are likely to influence reversal risk: natural disturbances (such as storms, fire, and insect outbreaks), climate change, and landowner behavior
forest ecology and management 257 (2009) 2209-2216 when included as part of a larger greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions reduction program, forest offsets may provide low-cost opportunities for ghg mitigation. one barrier to including forest offsets in climate policy is the risk of reversal, the intentional or unintentional release of carbon back to the atmosphere due to storms, fire, pests, land use decisions, and many other factors. to address this shortcoming, a variety of different strategies have emerged to minimize either the risk or the financial and environmental implications of reversal. these strategies range from management decisions made at the individual stand level to buffers and set-asides that function across entire trading programs. for such strategies to work, the actual risk and magnitude of potential reversals need to be clearly understood. in this paper we examine three factors that are likely to influence reversal risk: natural disturbances (such as storms, fire, and insect outbreaks), climate change, and landowner behavior. although increases in atmospheric co2 and to a lesser extent warming will likely bring benefits to some forest ecosystems, temperature stress may result in others. furthermore, optimism based on experimental results of physiology and growth must be tempered with knowledge that future large-scale disturbances and extreme weather events are also likely to increase. at the individual project level, management strategies such as manipulation of forest structure, age, and composition can be used to influence carbon sequestration and reversal risk. because some management strategies have the potential to maximize risk or carbon objectives at the expense of the other, policymakers should ensure that forest offset policies and programs do not provide the singular incentive to maximize carbon storage. given the scale and magnitude of potential disturbance events in the future, however, management decisions at the individual project level may be insufficient to adequately address reversal risk; other, non-silvicultural strategies and policy mechanisms may be necessary. we conclude with a brief review of policy mechanisms that have been developed or proposed to help manage or mitigate reversal risk at both individual project and policy-wide scales. key words: carbon offsets, disturbance, risk, forest management, climate change attention to climate change is increasing across domestic and international policy arenas. beginning in the latter half of 2007 and extending well into 2008, multiple bills and legislative discussion drafts were introduced in the u.s. congress (e.g., s.3036, lieberman-warner climate security act of 2008; s.1766, the low carbon economy act of 2007; h.r. 6186, investing in climate action and protection act; boucher-dingell draft climate legislation [discussion draft october 7, 2008]). international bodies also crafted a roadmap for future global action (unfccc, 2007).
What does this part of the book present?
the fundamental equations describing the ocean fluid
What are these equations based on?
classical continuum physics using both newtonian mechanics and quasi-equilibrium thermodynamics
What is the tensor analysis described in Part 6 necessary for?
to arrive at certain results presented in this part of the book
this part of the book presents the fundamental equations describing the ocean fluid. these equations are based on classical continuum physics using both newtonian mechanics and quasi-equilibrium thermodynamics. the material is for the most part independent of the niceties of ocean model numerics. instead, we focus on the basics. hence, the following chapters will be of interest to those aiming to understand the physical content of the mathematical equations underlying ocean climate models. the tensor analysis described in part 6 is necessary to arrive at certain results presented in this part of the book. however, requirements of the reader to penetrate part 6 are actually quite minimal. additionally, little previous knowledge of continuum mechanics is assumed. instead, the presentation is aimed at the reader who has a solid foundation in undergraduate physics and vector calculus, but not a formal course on continuum mechanics.
Hydrologic processes are limited to what factors?
the models representing the various hydrologic processes within the program are subject to their own assumptions and limitations
When vertical flow may not be true?
help3 is a one-dimensional model, the assumption of purely vertical flow may not be true when there are significant heterogeneities present in the unsaturated zone
What is easy to apply heterogeneous soil columns?
help3, can easily be applied to heterogeneous soil columns with physically based boundary conditions and run over long time periods with comparable accuracy to the richards' equation based approaches
help3 uses empirical relationships in certain instances which may be unreasonable in some applications schroeder et al., 1994). in addition, the models representing the various hydrologic processes within the program are subject to their own assumptions and limitations. while lateral discretization is not an issue, since help3 is a one-dimensional model, the assumption of purely vertical flow may not be true when there are significant heterogeneities present in the unsaturated zone. since the unique input parameter combinations are analyzed independently, overland flow between adjacent areas is ignored. this assumption is reasonable since adjacent areas generally experience surface runoff concurrently during a storm event, therefore, water from one area is unlikely to infiltrate in another because both areas are saturated. furthermore, overland flow typically moves considerably faster than groundwater flow, and is generally rare in humid climates due to less intensive rainfall, well-developed vegetation, and sufficient infiltration capacity of most soils knutssen, 1988 ). areas with high topographic relief, however, may have significant lateral flow components which may not be captured by the recharge methodology. help3 may have difficulty in estimating water balances in arid climates where upward fluxes can be high. however, it has been shown to work well in humid areas. compared to other numerical hydrologic models, help3 is easy to use, uses data that is readily available, and is highly efficient computationally. models based on richards' equation may be preferred by many researchers, however, they are also subject to many assumptions and limitations. they are often limited by the boundary conditions, and are computationally expensive due to the discretization requirements by the highly non-linear equations. the simpler water balance approaches, such as help3, can easily be applied to heterogeneous soil columns with physically based boundary conditions and run over long time periods with comparable accuracy to the richards' equation based approaches. as demonstrated by the results of this study, help3 is a valuable tool for assessing not only the temporal response, but
How to measure employee relations climate?
the last variable was employee relations climate, which was measured by a six-item scale selected from the "human resources index" developed by schuster (1982
"Human Resources Index" was developed by whom and when?
human resources index" developed by schuster (1982
How to measure operational performance?
operational performance was measured by asking the two informants to evaluate the firm's performance as compared with the industry average in productivity, production efficiency, new product development, research and development expenses, and marketing expenses
dependent variables this study has three outcome variables. first, financial performance was measured by asking the ceos and the hr/finance directors to evaluate the firm's performance compared to the following industry averages over the past year: sales growth, market share, net profit, return on investment (roi), profit from sales, capital liquidity, and return on assets (roa). similarly, operational performance was measured by asking the two informants to evaluate the firm's performance as compared with the industry average in productivity, production efficiency, new product development, research and development expenses, and marketing expenses. each of the respondents was asked to assess whether their performance in respective areas was much lower than the industry average (1) or much higher than the industry average (5) on a five-point likert scale. since the correlations of ratings provided by the ceo and the hr/finance director of each firm were very high, the average of these ratings was calculated to capture the financial and operational performance of the firm. the last variable was employee relations climate, which was measured by a six-item scale selected from the "human resources index" developed by schuster (1982). the items pertain
What do researchers do to estimate future vulnerabilities?
apply scenarios (projections of future climate and socioeconomic conditions) to build upon the knowledge and understanding of the system gained through assessing current vulnerability
How can the upper and lower critical thresholds be defined?
by examining current and historical data for the river
What is an example of how the upper and lower critical thresholds can be defined?
the upper threshold could correspond to the maximum flow volume before serious flooding occurs, and the lower threshold may represent the minimum flow required to sustain water demand in the region
to estimate future vulnerabilities, researchers apply scenarios (projections of future climate and socioeconomic conditions) to build upon the knowledge and understanding of the system gained through assessing current vulnerability. important considerations include the nature and rate of future climate change, including shifts in extreme weather, and the influence of changes in socio-economic conditions. once the coping range of a system has been defined, climate scenarios can be used as a starting point for determining the probability of exceeding critical thresholds in the future. (25)consider a simplified example of river flow volume, presented by yohe and tol.(21)the upper and lower critical thresholds can be defined by examining current and historical data for the river. for instance, the upper threshold could correspond to the maximum flow volume before serious flooding occurs, and the lower threshold may represent the minimum flow required to sustain water demand in the region (seebox 4, graph a). the frequency with which these two thresholds have been exceeded in the historical period can be determined, and water managers and other stakeholders recognize this probability as the risks associated with living in the region. using data from climate scenarios, researchers can estimate how flow volumes could change in the future, and thereby affect the probability of critical thresholds being exceeded (see box 4, graph b). note that exact predictions of the future are not required with this approach, as the focus is on estimated probabilities. (25)furthermore, since this information builds upon current understanding of the river system and is presented in terms that are currently used by water managers, it can be integrated into existing risk-management frameworks.
What is Summary The climate sensitivity?
a basic measure of the response of the climate system to a change in forcing
What is The equilibrium climate sensitivity?
the range of the surface air temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric co2 concentration, was estimated to be between 1.5 and 4.5degc in the sar (kattenberg et al., 1996
What is This difference in the climate models' response ?
mainly the result of differing climate sensitivities and differing rates of heat uptake by the oceans in each model, although differences in the aogcm radiative forcing for a given co2 concentration also have a small effect (see chapter 6, section 6.3). 561 projections of future climate change
summary the climate sensitivity is a basic measure of the response of the climate system to a change in forcing. it may be measured in several ways as discussed above. the equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the range of the surface air temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric co2 concentration, was estimated to be between 1.5 and 4.5degc in the sar (kattenberg et al., 1996). that range still encompasses the estimates from the current models in active use. 9.3.4.2 the role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake earlier (section 9.3.1), it was noted that the climate response varies from model to model even when the radiative forcing used to drive the models is similar. this difference in the climate models' response is mainly the result of differing climate sensitivities and differing rates of heat uptake by the oceans in each model, although differences in the aogcm radiative forcing for a given co2 concentration also have a small effect (see chapter 6, section 6.3). 561 projections of future climate change
What are the total taxa uplisted?
in total, there are 22 different taxa that are uplisted by two or three red list categories under at least one of the future scenarios (fig. 4a
What does climate change cause?
climate change causes 16 of the highest uplistings, four times acting in concert with high habitat transformation, while high and low habitat transformation alone trigger five and one of the highest uplistings, respectively
Where do the 22 different taxa reside?
of the 22 different taxa, 82% are from the south central and southwest, and only 9% each from the west coast and northwest
in total, there are 22 different taxa that are uplisted by two or three red list categories under at least one of the future scenarios (fig. 4a). it is noteworthy that all threats can individually result in such uplistings. for example, diastella thymelaeoides subsp. meridiana is a taxon from the southwest that is uplisted from lr to cr under the best-case scenario  cc1) and all other future scenarios (table 3). on the other hand, the red list status of taxa such as leucadendron 'touwsrivierenses' (undescribed species) and leucospermum spathulatum is only affected under the climate change scenarios 1 cc1 to 1 cc4) (table 3). overall, climate change causes 16 of the highest uplistings, four times acting in concert with high habitat transformation, while high and low habitat transformation alone trigger five and one of the highest uplistings, respectively. of the 22 different taxa, 82% are from the south central and southwest, and only 9% each from the west coast and northwest.
How can fisheries managers and others help enhance the adaptive capacity of both fish species and the fisheries sector?
by reducing non-climatic stresses on fish populations, such as pollution, fishing pressures and habitat degradation
How helpfull will monitoring for climate-induced changes be?
will help fishery managers and governments to determine which species may require enhanced protection, and which species are appropriate for fishing
Is the ability to identify where changes are occurring particularly important ?
particularly important with respect to adjusting guidelines for the allowable sustainable catch of various fish species
fisheries managers and others can help enhance the adaptive capacity of both fish species and the fisheries sector by reducing non-climatic stresses on fish populations, such as pollution, fishing pressures and habitat degradation.(94)maintaining genetic and age diversity in fish sub-populations is also important. these are considered 'no-regrets' adaptation options, which will benefit fisheries irrespective of climate change. the ability to identify where changes are occurring is particularly important with respect to adjusting guidelines for the allowable sustainable catch of various fish species. monitoring for climate-induced changes will help fishery managers and governments to determine which species may require enhanced protection, and which species are appropriate for fishing. for example, as lake temperatures increase in certain ontario lakes, warm-water fish may become more suited to angling than cold-water fish see box 5). to enhance and protect fish habitat along marine coasts, some regions could be designated as marine protected areas.(95) to be most effective, future changes in climate must be considered when designating such areas. regulatory regimes can also significantly affect the ability of fishers to adapt to changing conditions. at present, commercial licenses provide fishers with the right to catch specific species, in specific waters. in order to shift to a different species, or a different location, approval would be required, as may a new fishing license. current regulatory regimes may therefore need to be re-evaluated in the context of climate change, and adjusted accordingly. many small communities are highly reliant on fisheries, and could be greatly affected by changes in sustainable harvests induced by climate change. a conservation-oriented approach to fisheries management (e.g., reference 50, 97) considers biological and environmental factors, as well as social and economic values,(97)and aims to actively involve fishers and other stakeholders. fisheries and oceans canada is currently developing a policy framework through the atlantic fisheries policy review (afpr), based on these principles.
What data can be constructed from B2 data set ?
considering the quality of hc-1 (table 2), lefevre et al. concluded that a climatology of the ssi can be constructed from b2 data set
What climatology of the SSI  shows ?
they underlined that the quality may vary strongly from one site to another
How many stations were selected?
eleven stations were selected because they offer long time-series of monthly values--greater than 97 months--and cover major climatic areas 
considering the quality of hc-1 (table 2), lefevre et al. concluded that a climatology of the ssi can be constructed from b2 data set. however, they underlined that the quality may vary strongly from one site to another. we now examine their conclusions for a limited number of sites but over a longer period. we aim at providing further evidence on the capabilities of hc-1 for climate applications and detailing its limitations. thanks to the world radiation data center (wrdc), the egyptian meteorological authority and meteo-france, we have assembled monthly values measured by meteorological networks. eleven stations were selected because they offer long time-series of monthly values--greater than 97 months--and cover major climatic areas (table 3). the approximate size of the pixel in hc-1 and hc-3 is reported for each site in this table. remote sens. 2011 3
What does the grey bar in c represents?
range of isotope values measured in the stream during this timeframe
What happened to the bottom collector in december?
malfunctioned
What does a) represents?
soil moisture at six soil depths
hydrologic dynamics during autumn 2006. a - d seasonal course of precipitation a ), soil moisture at six soil depths b ), precipitation d18o c and stream flow d ). the grey bar in c represents the range of isotope values measured in the stream during this timeframe. precipitation isotopes were collected at both the top and bottom of the watershed in 5 mm increments, except in december when the bottom collector malfunctioned and collected samples integrated over a week. precipitation and streamflow d2h values are not shown, but all samples fell on or very near the lmwl (supplementary fig. s4).
what are the  risks to the Indian sub-continent ?
the risks to the indian sub-continent as a result of climate change are high and multi-dimensional
what would happen if the predicted regional temperature rise?
the predicted regional temperature rise, along with changes in the global climatic system, would alter the monsoon system, leading to an increase of 7-20 per cent in mean annual precipitation
what happened On 22 August 2009 in Delhi?
on 22 august 2009, delhi witnessed a heavy downpour that brought about 74 millimetres of rainfall in just two hours
the risks to the indian sub-continent as a result of climate change are high and multi-dimensional. there is a risk of increases in both mean minimum and maximum temperatures of 2-4deg c.(12) the predicted regional temperature rise, along with changes in the global climatic system, would alter the monsoon system, leading to an increase of 7-20 per cent in mean annual precipitation. a 10-15 per cent increase in monsoon precipitation, a 5-25 per cent decline in precipitation levels in semi-arid and drought-prone central india and a decline in winter rainfall in northern india is also projected.(13) another study predicts a decrease in the number of rainy days expected over much of india, along with increased frequency of heavy rainfall in the monsoon season.(14) extreme precipitation events like the one in mumbai in 2005 are expected to increase substantially over the west coast and in central india.(15) on 22 august 2009, delhi witnessed a heavy downpour that brought about 74 millimetres of rainfall in just two hours. this caused the national capital to grind to a virtual halt, as the roads were flooded, the sewers clogged up and the traffic slowed down for hours.(16)
Larger farm families are less likely to choose which crops?
larger farm families are less likely to choose maize, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat
Potatoes are more often chosen when the dominant soil at the farm is a what?
potatoes are more often chosen when the dominant soil at the farm is a lithosol
Older farmers are more likely to choose which crop?
older farmers are more likely to choose wheat
in table 1 we estimate the probability each species is selected using a multinomial choice model (eq. (5)). the choice of fruits and vegetables has been left out of the regression as the base case. the probability of choosing each crop was assumed to be a function of summer and winter temperature and summer and winter precipitation. previous empirical research of temperate countries suggests that all four seasons of the year may be significant mendelsohn et al., 1994 ). although we explored a four season model, we were not able to estimate significant results for each season. this sample is heavily dominated by tropical observations, where the four seasons are not as distinct. other explanatory variables included soil variables, farmer age, farmer education, household size, prices, and a dummy variable for computer. other variables such as gender were not significant. the model is significant according to three tests of global significance. most of the individual coefficients are significant. positive (negative) coefficients imply that the probability of choosing each crop increases (decreases) as the corresponding variable increases. the coefficient on education is positive and significant for every crop in table 1 except for rice and maize which are not significant. this result implies that lower educated farmers tend to grow fruits and vegetables, the omitted choice. potatoes are more often chosen when the dominant soil at the farm is a lithosol. when the dominant soil is a luvisol, farms tend to choose maize less often, but potatoes more often. wheat, potatoes, and soybeans are more likely to be chosen if a farm has planosol soils. farms with computers are more likely to choose potatoes and rice. it is not clear whether this equipment actually enhances the profitability of these crops or whether the computer is a proxy for a missing variable such as technology or market access. larger farm families are less likely to choose maize, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat. these crops are easily mechanized and so may be selected by farmers with smaller families. older farmers are more likely to choose wheat. the remaining effects are not significant. only two of the own prices are significant: maize and wheat. both coefficients are positive as expected. farmers are more likely to choose these crops when their prices are higher. the remaining significant price effects are cross price terms. when wheat prices are higher, farmers are more likely to pick maize, rice and soybean. when maize prices are higher, they are more likely to pick rice but less likely to pick squash. when table 1 - multinomial logit crop selection model for july 2003 to june 2004 season variable maize potatoes rice soybeans squash wheat
Who supported with helpful advice and discussion?
we thank bill baker, alistair crame, rodney feldmann, alexander glass, drew harvell, linda ivany, david jablonski, susan kidwell, james mcclintock, ryan moody, sean powers, victor smetacek, jan strugnell, simon thrush, john werner, and william zinsmeister for helpful advice and discussion
Where the impetus to write this review came from?
the impetus to write this review came from a workshop on the role of the southern ocean in global processes organized by the british antarctic survey and held at the royal society, london, in july 2003
Who founded the research that grew into the ideas expressed in the text?
many of the ideas expressed here grew out of research funded by the u.s. national science foundation's office of polar programs (grants opp-9908828 and ant-0245563 to r.b.a., and opp-9908856 to d.b.b
we thank bill baker, alistair crame, rodney feldmann, alexander glass, drew harvell, linda ivany, david jablonski, susan kidwell, james mcclintock, ryan moody, sean powers, victor smetacek, jan strugnell, simon thrush, john werner, and william zinsmeister for helpful advice and discussion. the impetus to write this review came from a workshop on the role of the southern ocean in global processes organized by the british antarctic survey and held at the royal society, london, in july 2003. many of the ideas expressed here grew out of research funded by the u.s. national science foundation's office of polar programs (grants opp-9908828 and ant-0245563 to r.b.a., and opp-9908856 to d.b.b.). this is contribution no. 385 from the dauphin island sea lab.
Good agreement between in-situ and long-path observations of O3, NO2, and SO2 showed what?
good agreement between in-situ and long-path observations of o3, no2, and so2 showed that the ground site was generally representative for the larger area around caltech, except for a few nights when near-surface air was isolated from air masses aloft
How often were very local emissions from vehicles close to the sampling site found to impact the measurements?
only sporadically were very local emissions from vehicles close to the sampling site found to impact the measurements
How many aerosol samplers were also operated on the roof of a 3 story building?
fourteen aerosol samplers were also operated on the roof of a 3 story (12 m) building
the library roof also housed in-situ no2 and chocho measurements as well as a multi-axis doas system. good agreement between in-situ and long-path observations of o3, no2, and so2 showed that the ground site was generally representative for the larger area around caltech, except for a few nights when near-surface air was isolated from air masses aloft. only sporadically were very local emissions from vehicles close to the sampling site found to impact the measurements. the main ground site also hosted an aerosol backscatter ceilometer that provided a measurement of the local boundary layer height haman et al. 2012]. a large number of aerosol instruments (tables a6b and a6c) sampled from a second 10 m high scaffolding tower, or from the top of their respective laboratory trailers at the main ground site. the instruments included standard measurements of aerosol size distributions, aerosol mass spectrometers, aerosol extinction measurements, and more experimental instrumentation described elsewhere in this issue. fourteen aerosol samplers were also operated on the roof of a 3 story (12 m) building on the caltech campus and were co-located with an extensive suite of meteorological measurements including turbulent momentum and heat fluxes (table a6c).
Which are the variables taken for Panel Unit Root Test ?
acreage, rainfall, and temperature
Which are the  the non-stationary variables differenced in the test?
sorghum yield, cotton precipitation, and soybean temperature
Which test does consider a null hypothesis?
the breusch and pagan test
results of the panel unit root test the above panel unit root test procedure is individually applied to each of our potential dependent (yield) and independent variables (acreage, rainfall, and temperature). the results in table 1 show that for corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat, the variables are stationary as a panel or integrated order zero (i(0)), rejecting the null hypothesis of a unit root. to test the sensitivity of this result to possible violation of the assumption of serially uncorrelated errors, either the error terms can be tested directly, or an additional test can be performed. a slightly modified test is described in im, pesaran, and shin that is robust to serial correlation. since the results we obtain by this second method are the same as for the first, reported in the second section of table 1, we conclude that we do not have serial correlation in the errors of any of the variables. the bottom section of table 1, shows that a different modification of the test, based on demeaned variables in each panel, yields slightly different results. since the de-meaned version of the test 8 is robust to correlation across regions, we conclude that there is correlation across regions. this result is not surprising since we will show the existence of random region effects in the production functions that we estimate in the next section. we proceed by differencing the non-stationary variables, sorghum yield, cotton precipitation, and soybean temperature, in their region panels. these differenced versions are re-tested as panels and are shown to be stationary or i(0). these panel time series characteristics of the data are used in formulating the estimation approach. stationary versions of all of the variables are used in the panel production function model in the next section. this avoids possible spurious correlations between variables and allows the establishment of valid relationships. in addition, a deterministic time trend may be included that does not suffer from an inflated t-statistic. fixed or random effects? having established the time series properties of the variables, it is important to establish the correct panel model form. results of the previous section reveal that some of the variables in table 1 have correlations across regions. to test for fixed or random region effects in the model, several approaches are available. the breusch and pagan test considers a null hypothesis that the variance of region and time specific effects is zero, in a two-way error component model. honda suggests a one-sided version of this test, which is preferred because of expected non-negative variance components. honda's version of the test is a uniformly most powerful test of h0 vs. fixed effects, where u are unobserved u 2 0
What are two studies that can model climatic shocks?
at the global level, one of the few studies so far to model climate shocks and their impacts on commodity prices in different regions is willenbockel (2012
What are the types of results?
results are indicative only but interesting nevertheless
Second or article, what would be the impact of a dry season on North America in 2030?
for example, a drought in north america in 2030 of a similar scale to the historical drought of 1988 would have a dramatic temporary impact on world market export prices for maize and a strong impact on world market price for wheat
at the global level, one of the few studies so far to model climate shocks and their impacts on commodity prices in different regions is willenbockel (2012). results are indicative only but interesting nevertheless. for example, a drought in north america in 2030 of a similar scale to the historical drought of 1988 would have a dramatic temporary impact on world market export prices for maize and a strong impact on world market price for wheat. these impacts would feed through to domestic consumer prices, with particularly profound effects in parts of sub-saharan africa. for instance, nigeria depends almost entirely on imports of wheat, and under such a scenario the average domestic price for wheat in the country would spike by 50% above the baseline 2030 price, with potentially substantial impacts on households. the treatment of the impacts of climate variability as opposed to the impacts of slow-onset climate change in global economic models is a heavily under-researched area, particularly how harvest failures in one continent may influence food security outcomes in others.
In the French climatic context, how many deaths did August 2003 bring, compared expected mortality?
almost 15,000 deaths, an excess of 60% over expected mortality for the period
Who was the most vulnerable?
in france, the elderly, especially women, were most vulnerable, but excess mortality was observed even for men in the 35-44 years age group (23% excess
What correlations can we see?
strong correlations appear as well with urban living conditions, poverty, isolation, and ill health
august 2003, far more intense than what is usually observed in the french climatic context, led directly to almost 15,000 deaths, an excess of 60% over expected mortality for the period. this event bears out what research has already identified, i.e., that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. in france, the elderly, especially women, were most vulnerable, but excess mortality was observed even for men in the 35-44 years age group (23% excess). strong correlations appear as well with urban living conditions, poverty, isolation, and ill health. thus, heat wave is confirmed as the silent killer of mute victims, unveiling social inequalities in the face of risks (klinenberg, 2002). we have seen that several definitions of heat wave exist among the international community of meteorologists. some rely upon absolute temperature thresholds for day and night temperatures, while others consider relative excess above past averages. duration is another factor. however, based upon the french experience, heat waves may be seen as an event that brings the dangers of climate into the here and now (in contrast to future and uncertain concerns, and to other distant parts of the world, i.e., less developed countries). among those dangers, direct fatalities are foremost, but a large span of impacts must be considered. further research could bear on heat wave as a systemic risk (e.g., oecd, 2003) as clearly it qualifies for this description: complex, characterized by open system boundaries, second-order uncertainty, and controversy. the administrative and political division of europe into different countries is swept aside in the case of heat wave: high temperatures easily jump formal borders and victims are to be found in many countries. grave impacts, direct and indirect, immediate and delayed, are to be found not only in the area of health, but in farming, forestry,21glacier
How IPCC has examined?
during its 20-year history, the ipcc has been examined critically from a number of different standpoints: dissecting its 1980s origins; revealing its norms, practices and modes of selfgovernance; debating the role of consensus in its assessments; policing characterizations of uncertainty; and tracing the relationship of its institutional function and knowledge claims to emerging ideas of global environmental governance
Explain about climate change knowledge synthesized by the IPCC?
but other questions about the status of climate change knowledge synthesized by the ipcc remain less widely investigated, questions which emerge from the agendas raised by the new geographers of science (e.g. powell, 2007; finnegan, 2008
Describe about  Sheila Jasanoff writings?
as sheila jasanoff has shown in many of her writings (e.g. jasanoff, 2004a,b; 2010), knowledge that is claimed by its producers to have universal authority is received and interpreted very differently in different political and cultural settings
during its 20-year history, the ipcc has been examined critically from a number of different standpoints: dissecting its 1980s origins; revealing its norms, practices and modes of selfgovernance; debating the role of consensus in its assessments; policing characterizations of uncertainty; and tracing the relationship of its institutional function and knowledge claims to emerging ideas of global environmental governance. but other questions about the status of climate change knowledge synthesized by the ipcc remain less widely investigated, questions which emerge from the agendas raised by the new geographers of science (e.g. powell, 2007; finnegan, 2008). as sheila jasanoff has shown in many of her writings (e.g. jasanoff, 2004a,b; 2010), knowledge that is claimed by its producers to have universal authority is received and interpreted very differently in different political and cultural settings. revealing the local and situated characteristics of climate change knowledge thus becomes central for understanding both the acceptance and resistance that is shown towards the knowledge claims of the ipcc. it is a task for physical and human geographers to take seriously, and to do together.
What were the physico-chemical variables measured?
the physico-chemical variables measured were temperature, ph, total alkalinity, total suspended solids (tss), tp, srp, nitrate and ammonium
How were zooplankton and phytoplankton samples taken?
zooplankton and phytoplankton samples were taken with a tube sampler integrating over the whole water column
How many zooplankton sub-samples were preserved?
two zooplankton sub-samples were preserved: 3 l of water were passed through a 25l m mesh for rotifers and nauplii, and 7 l were passed through a 50l m mesh for copepods and cladocerans
the physico-chemical variables measured were temperature, ph, total alkalinity, total suspended solids (tss), tp, srp, nitrate and ammonium. alkalinity and tss were measured in 1998 only. zooplankton and phytoplankton samples were taken with a tube sampler integrating over the whole water column. two zooplankton sub-samples were preserved: 3 l of water were passed through a 25l m mesh for rotifers and nauplii, and 7 l were passed through a 50l m mesh for copepods and cladocerans. water used for analysing phytoplankton was not passed through a mesh screen. planktonic chlorophyll a was extracted from gf/f filtered samples into 90 ethanol and measured spectrophotometrically. three periphyton samples were randomly taken in each enclosure in the pretreatment week and at the end of the experiments. periphytic algae attached to submerged plants were detached by shaking. periphytic chlorophyll a was extracted and determined with similar method than phytoplanktonic chlorophyll a. after removing periphyton, plants were dried and weighed. at the end of the experiments, all the macrophytes from within the mesocosms were cut at the sediment surface, identified and dried and weighed. three samples of zoobenthos were randomly taken in each enclosure in the pretreatment week, and at the end of the experiment in 1998, with a 5-cm diameter tube sampler. total biomass of the benthos was determined before preservation and subsequent counting.
What is used as a justification for delaying action?
uncertainty, and the prospect of resolving some of it in the future, is often used as a justification for delaying action (i.e., waiting to see whether the consequences of climate change are indeed as severe as now seems possible, and whether the cost of emission reductions is indeed as low as now seems likely
In what section was the paper concluded?
we conclude our paper in section five by explaining why a sensible approach to risk implies that this is precisely the wrong conclusion
When will we have the opportunity to revise global efforts to abate GHG emissions?
even though we will have the opportunity to revise global efforts to abate ghg emissions in the future, the balance of the evidence points to setting as a matter of priority a clear and tight target for a stable concentration of ghgs in the atmosphere
uncertainty, and the prospect of resolving some of it in the future, is often used as a justification for delaying action (i.e., waiting to see whether the consequences of climate change are indeed as severe as now seems possible, and whether the cost of emission reductions is indeed as low as now seems likely). we conclude our paper in section five by explaining why a sensible approach to risk implies that this is precisely the wrong conclusion. even though we will have the opportunity to revise global efforts to abate ghg emissions in the future, the balance of the evidence points to setting as a matter of priority a clear and tight target for a stable concentration of ghgs in the atmosphere.
What does section 4.3 show?
results concerning the extremes of the precipitation distribution by means of upper percentiles
What does IPCC mean?
panel on climate change
Describe section 5.
we compute standard indicators commonly used to account for extreme events and other local features related to precipitation (e.g., rain frequency
in section 4.3 we showed some results concerning the extremes of the precipitation distribution by means of upper percentiles. additionally, in section 5 we compute standard indicators commonly used to account for extreme events and other local features related to precipitation (e.g., rain frequency). in particular, we selected a subset of the standard intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) indicators of extreme events sillman and roeckner 2008] related to precipitation, listed in table 2. for the sake of simplicity, we show results from 6 of them (the results of rx1day and r20 are similar to rx5day and r10, respectively, and only the spatial correlation of the resulting values is shown). all indices are computed using daily precipitation data from each of the ensembles models, and compared with that from spain02. the suitability of this gridded data set for the analysis of extreme events was tested by herrera et al. (submitted manuscript, 2010). figure 3. spatial correlation between the yearly climatology given by spain02 and the different rcms. correlations are sorted in decreasing order along the horizontal axis. the error bars show the standard deviation obtained from a monte carlo simulation (see text).
how does the researchers can predict the climate change?
then researchers can potentially ascertain whether changes in biodiversity across a number of sites are primarily due to climate or land use change, including quantification of uncertainty in any conclusions
how did you identify climate change?
however, if land use change and climate change measures are strongly correlated in space or time then regression techniques will not be able to reliably test causation. in some cases, clear significant effects of either land use change or climate change may be identified
example of land use and climate change?
in other cases it may be difficult to separate out effects of land use and climate change. for example, in the uk, butterfly communities have changed over the last three decades, probably as a result of both drivers.29,149,150franco et al.27
if these conditions are met, then researchers can potentially ascertain whether changes in biodiversity across a number of sites are primarily due to climate or land use change, including quantification of uncertainty in any conclusions. however, if land use change and climate change measures are strongly correlated in space or time then regression techniques will not be able to reliably test causation. in some cases, clear significant effects of either land use change or climate change may be identified. however, in other cases it may be difficult to separate out effects of land use and climate change. for example, in the uk, butterfly communities have changed over the last three decades, probably as a result of both drivers.29,149,150franco et al.27
What has been a key feature of recent UK government climate change and environmental policy?
individual behaviour change (encouraged primarily through economic and informational approaches
we focus here on the uk, which has taken the lead at a national level in setting mitigation targets. the uk climate change bill calls for an 80% ghg emissions reduction by 2050 relative to 1990 (hm government, 2008). this level of response to climate change has profound implications for individual choices and behavior, as well as for the social structures within which these take place. with over one--third of many developed nations' carbon emissions coming from private travel and domestic energy use (defra, 2007a), individuals clearly have a key role to play in any potential shift towards a low--carbon society. besides reducing their direct emissions (e.g., conserving gas or electricity in the home), an individual can act in several roles to promote a low--carbon society, including being a low-- carbon consumer (e.g., buying energy--efficient appliances or local, seasonal food), a low--carbon employee (through professional decisions and workplace behavior), and a low--carbon citizen (e.g., voting for a 'green' policy; joining an environmental campaign or community action group). indeed, individual behaviour change (encouraged primarily through economic and informational approaches) has been a key feature of recent uk government climate change and environmental policy (e.g., hm government, 2009, hinchliffe, 1996, ockwell et al., 2009).
What do we frame as the purpose for the discussion of obesity?
the frame we propose for the discussion of obesity is the "toxic environment
What is the recent increase in obesity associated with?
the recent increase in obesity and its associated diseases is well documented
What scientist dictated these facts?
according to cognitive scientist george lakoff
according to cognitive scientist george lakoff, no message is neutral because words chosen to describe an idea convey meaning beyond the facts.13for example, the abortion debate has "pro-life" and "pro-choice" sides. these phrases represent a battle over the frame - neither side recognizes the other's frame (i.e., no one wishes to be anti-life or anti-choice.) one position affirms life, and the other affirms choice, which are both appealing public values. the frame we propose for the discussion of obesity is the "toxic environment."14"toxic" is a strong word, but defensible in that modern food and activity conditions contribute heavily to the occurrence of illness. the recent increase in obesity and its associated diseases is well documented.15 we believe that this epidemic is the predictable consequence of environmental changes that have occurred over the last thirty years.16
Who has usually been blamed for anthropogenic climate change and greenhouse gas emissions?
the blame for anthropogenic climate change and greenhouse gas emissions has been variously assigned to the global collective, to nation states, to economic sectors and to individuals
What deep contrasts and conficts are found when assigning responsibility for global warming?
there are deep contrasts and conflicts in assigning responsibility for global warming that centre on north-south relations, the balance of past and future emissions, and the role of the state, private sector, and individuals
What is the second grand narrative of climate policy?
a second grand narrative of climate policy is the concept of 'common but differentiated responsibility' for climate change as formalised in article 3(1) of the framework convention
allocating responsibility for climate change a second grand narrative of climate policy is the concept of 'common but differentiated responsibility' for climate change as formalised in article 3(1) of the framework convention. the blame for anthropogenic climate change and greenhouse gas emissions has been variously assigned to the global collective, to nation states, to economic sectors and to individuals, but because the international climate regime is based on nation states it is the allocation of responsibility to countries that has been the most important and controversial. there are deep contrasts and conflicts in assigning responsibility for global warming that centre on north-south relations, the balance of past and future emissions, and the role of the state, private sector, and individuals. one of the most
What is a country with varying climate, vegetation, topography and underlying parent rock?
kenya
In most parts of Kenya, what are the nutrients that soils are deficient in?
nitrogen, phosphorous and occasionally potassium
In Kenya, where are sand dunes and mandgroves found?
along the coast
soils and topography kenya is a country with varying climate, vegetation, topography and underlying parent rock. climate is the most important factor influencing soil formation and affects soil type directly through its weathering effects and indirectly as a result of its influence on vegetation. in most parts of kenya, soils are deficient in nitrogen, phosphorous and occasionally potassium. in dry areas, the soils have low organic matter mainly because rainfall is low, variable, unreliable and poorly distributed. to understand the distribution of soil in kenya, the country can be divided into three broad regions: humid, sub-humid and arid. the humid regions (highlands) are areas with an altitude of over 1500m which receive an annual rainfall of over 1000 mm, and include the highlands east and west of the rift valley and the rift valley floor. they have volcanic rocks and the soils are mainly loamy. other humid areas with an altitude less than 1500m (humid lowlands) have sandy soils which are well drained and are of loamy, sandy clay texture (e.g. along the kenyan coast). other areas of the highlands have fertile loam soils, while alluvial soils (silts) are found along river valleys. sand dunes and mangrove swamps are found along the coast. the soils covered by mangrove swamps are deep, grey, saline and poorly drained. the sub-humid regions (the lake region and western kenya) receive slightly less rainfall than the humid areas. they have volcanic and basement rocks and soils are red clay and generally productive. these regions lie between 1000m and 2000m above sea level and rainfall is up to 1000 mm per year. dark red clays, sandy loams and alluvial deposits of eroded material from the uplands are common along the flood plains of big rivers in these regions. peat swampy soils and black cotton soils dominate the lowlands. the semi-arid regions (northern and northeastern kenya) receive on average 300-500 mm of rainfall per year and their soils are shallow and generally infertile, but variable. these soils have developed mainly from sedimentary rocks. fertile volcanic soils, black cotton soils, dark red 8 8 soils, lava soils and alluvial soils are scattered across the region depending on the distribution of rainfall, altitude and parent rock type.
what is forced climate compinents
he forced climate components is important to understanding the benefits of the initialization
what is a attribution
in terms of attribution, to what extent are regional changes in the current climate due to natural climate variations and thus transitory, and to what extent are they due to anthropogenic forcing and thus likely to continue. as with the preceding decade, the climate evolution in the near term will be a combination of forced
what is a observing system?
what elements of the observing system are important for initializing and verifying decadal predictions
otivation. an ambitious effort to produce experimental near-term decadal forecasts has begun, motivated by the possibility that the climate models used for climate change projections can capture not only the impact of the changing atmospheric composition but also the evolution of slow natural variations of the climate system when initialized with ocean observations. in the cases where initialization improves the forecast, addressing the question of how much of that improvement is due to the natural versus the forced climate components is important to understanding the benefits of the initialization. untangling the natural and forced components of the climate is necessary because the response to external forcing may project onto or comingle with natural climate variability. as the science of decadal prediction is in its infancy, one would like to assess and understand the following: 1) the expectations for added regional climate information and skill achievable from initialized decadal predictions; 2) what physical processes or modes of variability are important for the decadal predictability and prediction problem, and whether their relevance may evolve and change with time; 3) what elements of the observing system are important for initializing and verifying decadal predictions; and 4) in terms of attribution, to what extent are regional changes in the current climate due to natural climate variations and thus transitory, and to what extent are they due to anthropogenic forcing and thus likely to continue. as with the preceding decade, the climate evolution in the near term will be a combination of forced
In what section is "implementation of forcing agents in model projections" discussed?
the implementation of forcing agents in model projections, including natural and anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use change are discussed in section 12.3.2
What type of experiments does section 12.3.2 have a strong focus on?
are discussed in section 12.3.2, with a strong focus on cmip5 experiments
What chapter was AR5 introduced in?
the scenarios assessed in ar5, introduced in chapter 1
the experiments that form the basis of global future projections discussed in this chapter are extensions of the simulations of the observational record discussed in chapters 9 and 10. the scenarios assessed in ar5, introduced in chapter 1, include four new scenarios designed to explore a wide range of future climate characterized by representative trajectories of well-mixed greenhouse gas (wmghg) concentrations and other anthropogenic forcing agents. these are described further in section 12.3.1. the implementation of forcing agents in model projections, including natural and anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use change are discussed in section 12.3.2, with a strong focus on cmip5 experiments. global mean emissions, concentrations and rfs applicable to the historical record simulations assessed in chapters 8, 9 and 10, and the future scenario simulations assessed here, are listed in annex ii. global mean rf for the 21st century consistent with these scenarios, derived from cmip5 and other climate model studies, is discussed in section 12.3.3.
What are hourly variables from the WG based on?
hourly variables from the wg are based on observed relationships between the daily and the hourly timescale
Where does the lack of confidence emerge from?
this lack of confidence comes from hardly any assessments having been made of gcm and rcm performance at the hourly timescale, principally because there is a marked lack of observed hourly data
What is the emphasis?
the emphasis is therefore on the wg being fitted to the daily statistics projected for the future, and any changes in hourly statistics arise from this change in daily properties rather than any change in the hourly structure of weather in the future
hourly variables from the wg are based on observed relationships between the daily and the hourly timescale. for the future none of these relationships will be allowed to change, principally because, at present, there is little confidence in rcm and gcm simulations at timescales less than daily. this lack of confidence comes from hardly any assessments having been made of gcm and rcm performance at the hourly timescale, principally because there is a marked lack of observed hourly data. future climate change is only incorporated into the wg through changes in the parameters in the daily component of the wg. the emphasis is therefore on the wg being fitted to the daily statistics projected for the future, and any changes in hourly statistics arise from this change in daily properties rather than any change in the hourly structure of weather in the future. for the weather variables other than rainfall, this is carried out by direct disaggregation of the daily values into hourly values whilst conserving the generated daily totals/averages (i.e. it is micro-canonical). a major part of this procedure uses the diurnal cycle arising from the predictable sequence of incoming solar radiation, with consequent effects on sunshine hours, temperature etc. the hourly model follows the same methodology as the daily model, interpolating (for each half month) the necessary ivrs (at the hourly/daily scale) to the 5 km grid from values determined from hourly station data. because of the difficulties associated with assembling long hourly series with all the variables required, the lengths of hourly data used varies between stations. lengths of at least 10 yr were available for all sites, but the periods encompass the years 1976-1995. the distribution of usable stations is shown in figure a4. for hourly rainfall a somewhat different modelling strategy is used, where estimates of hourly sample statistics are made using regression relations derived from observations. this is a further development of cowpertwait et al 1996. these hourly statistics are then included in the fitting procedure alongside the pfut
Who prepared the database for the Interreg IVC Green and blue space adaptation for urban areas and eco towns (GRaBS) project?
aleksandra kazmierczak and jeremy carter (university of manchester
What was the title or subject of the cover photograph?
millennium park in chicago
Who prepared the case study maps for Chicago, Dorset, Nagoya, New Orleans, Seattle and Toronto?
gina cavan
database prepared by aleksandra kazmierczak and jeremy carter (university of manchester) for the interreg ivc green and blue space adaptation for urban areas and eco towns (grabs) project. cover photograph by aleksandra kazmierczak: millennium park in chicago, usa maps for case studies: chicago, dorset, nagoya, new orleans, seattle and toronto by gina cavan. maps for case studies: basel, berlin, faenza, malmo, north west england, slovakia, stuttgart, sutton and the netherlands by jack dods. june 2010 disclaimer: the database is provided for general information purposes only. any reliance or action taken based on the information, materials and techniques described within this document are the responsibility of the user. readers are advised to consult appropriate professional resources to determine what is safe and suitable for their particular circumstances. the grabs team assumes no responsibility for any consequences arising from use of the information described within this document.
How long was the soil heating experiment?
in a decade-long soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest
What was documented in the experiment?
we documented changes in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling
In the soil experiment for which was the information documented?
in order to investigate the consequences of these changes for the climate system
in a decade-long soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling in order to investigate the consequences of these changes for the climate system. here we show that whereas soil warming accelerates soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, this response is small and short-lived for a mid-latitude forest, because of the limited size of the labile soil carbon pool. we also show that warming increases the availability of mineral nitrogen to plants. because plant growth in many mid-latitude forests is nitrogen-limited, warming has the potential to indirectly stimulate enough carbon storage in plants to at least compensate for the carbon losses from soils. our results challenge assumptions made in some climate models that lead to projections of large long-term releases of soil carbon in response to warming of forest ecosystems. the acceleration of global warming due to terrestrial carbon-cycle feedbacks may be an important component of future climate change 1 ). recent experiments with fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate models suggest that carbon-cycle feedbacks could substantially accelerate 2 or slow 3 climate change over the 21st century. both the sign and magnitude of these feedbacks in the real earth system are still highly uncertain because of gaps in basic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem processes 2 3 ). for example, the potential switch of the terrestrial biosphere from its current role as a carbon sink 4 5 to a carbon source is critically dependent upon the long-term sensitivity to global warming of the respiration of soil microbes, which is still a subject of debate 6 - 8 ). here we present results from a longterm (10-year) soil warming experiment designed to explore this feedback issue in an ecosystem context. we began our soil warming study in april 1991, in an even-aged mixed hardwood forest stand at the harvard forest in central massachusetts (42.54degn, 72.18degw). dominant tree
How does cost estimates differ?
cost estimates differ because of the (a) methodology6 used in the analysis, and (b) underlying factors and assumptions built into the analysis
What factors can be incorporated that will lower estimated costs?
incorporating multiple greenhouse gases, sinks, induced technical change, and emissions trading7 can lower estimated costs
What factors can increase estimated costs?
on the other hand, accounting for potential shortterm macro shocks to the economy, constraints on the use of domestic and international market mechanisms, high transaction costs, inclusion of ancillary costs, and ineffective tax recycling measures can increase estimated costs
for a variety of reasons, significant differences and uncertainties surround specific quantitative estimates of mitigation costs. cost estimates differ because of the (a) methodology6 used in the analysis, and (b) underlying factors and assumptions built into the analysis. the inclusion of some factors will lead to lower estimates and others to higher estimates. incorporating multiple greenhouse gases, sinks, induced technical change, and emissions trading7 can lower estimated costs. further, studies suggest that some sources of greenhouse gas emissions can be limited at no, or negative, net social cost to the extent that policies can exploit no-regrets opportunities such as correcting market imperfections, inclusion of ancillary benefits, and efficient tax revenue recycling. international cooperation that facilitates cost-effective emissions reductions can lower mitigation costs. on the other hand, accounting for potential shortterm macro shocks to the economy, constraints on the use of domestic and international market mechanisms, high transaction costs, inclusion of ancillary costs, and ineffective tax recycling measures can increase estimated costs. since no analysis incorporates all relevant factors affecting mitigation costs, estimated costs may not reflect the actual costs of implementing mitigation actions.
What is the aim of this study?
the study aims to reveal australian households' perceptions of climate change and their preferences for mitigation action
When web-based survey was conducted ?
 a web-based survey was conducted in november 2008
Describe about first key findings?
first, respondents' willingness to pay for climate change mitigation is significantly influenced by their beliefs of future temperature rise. support for the policy increased at a decreasing rate as the perceived temperature change rose
the study aims to reveal australian households' perceptions of climate change and their preferences for mitigation action. a web-based survey was conducted in november 2008 in which over 600 households from the state of new south wales were asked for their willingness to bear extra household expenditure to support the 'carbon pollution reduction scheme', an emissions trading scheme proposed by the australian government. the results of the study can be summarized in four key findings. first, respondents' willingness to pay for climate change mitigation is significantly influenced by their beliefs of future temperature rise. support for the policy increased at a decreasing rate as the perceived temperature change rose. second, perceptions of policy failure have a significant negative impact on respondents' support for the proposed mitigation measure. the higher the perceived likelihood that the measure would not deliver any outcome, the lower was the likelihood that respondents would support the policy. third, respondent preferences for the proposed policy are influenced by the possibility of reaching a global agreement on emissions reduction. sample respondents stated significantly higher values for the policy when the biggest polluting countries implement a similar scheme. finally, respondents' willingness to take action against climate change, both at the national and household level, is found to be influenced by their level of mass-media exposure. particularly, those respondents who watched 'an inconvenient truth' were significantly more likely to act for climate change mitigation than others.
What is the first major threat to the security of supplies?
the first is terrorism. the blowing up of power lines and plants is such an obviously effective means of bringing a region to its knees and inflicting major economic damage that it significantly influences the thinking of politicians on the subject of future fuel mixes
What is the second threat?
the second, and it has happened already, is when a country simply can no longer afford to pay for the oil and gas to run its plants
For how long was Brazil with lights out?
it has happened for short periods where energy resources and infrastructure have failed for two to three weeks
there are two further major threats to the security of supplies. the first is terrorism. the blowing up of power lines and plants is such an obviously effective means of bringing a region to its knees and inflicting major economic damage that it significantly influences the thinking of politicians on the subject of future fuel mixes. the second, and it has happened already, is when a country simply can no longer afford to pay for the oil and gas to run its plants. we are at the brink of a period in which we may see cities and whole countries go bankrupt. will that mean that for whole regions of the world the lights will go out? it has happened for short periods where energy resources and infrastructure have failed for two to three weeks as in brasilia, auckland, vladivostok, and has been threatened in some of the former russian states, but in periods of economic chaos, when bills simply cannot be paid and new equipment bought, could that become months or years?
How much air pollution is reduced across the nation?
one-third
What was the conclusion of the study of Pope et al?
life expectancy during this period was associated with reductions in fine-particulate air pollution after controlling for socioeconomic, demographic, and other variables associated with life expectancy
What steps were taken to reduce green house gas emission and manage energy saving cost?
retrofitting buildings to add insulation, solar photovoltaics, and more efficient heating systems
metropolitan areas across the nation have reduced air pollution levels by one-third. pope et al. also found that increased life expectancy during this period was associated with reductions in fine-particulate air pollution after controlling for socioeconomic, demographic, and other variables associated with life expectancy. their statistical analysis shows that the gain in average life expectancy that could be attributed to reduction in air pollutants was one-third of a year. retrofitting buildings to add insulation, solar photovoltaics, and more efficient heating systems is one strategy that can be pursued at a local level and may generate long-term energy cost savings for the firm or family that takes such actions as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. the up-front costs of such efforts are frequently daunting, however, even when the private investment will reduce private costs over the long run. by a public ballot approved by 81 percent of the voters, berkeley, california, has adopted a general policy to reduce emissions substantially over time. one of the programs is called berkeley first (financing initiative for renewable and solar technology) and is designed to reduce the barrier of up-front costs. to participate in the program, the owner of a commercial or residential building asks a contractor for an estimate of the costs of new solar energy equipment or energy-efficiency improvements to the building that would likely cost between $4,000 and $20,000 (pope et al., 2009). the owner then submits an application to the city, and staff review the estimate and ensure that the owner has clear title.
Are there any studies to support the idea that  framing climate change predictions differently might moderate the tendency for uncertainty to undermine individual action
two studies n s 88 120) show that higher uncertainty combined with a negative frame (highlighting possible losses) decreased individual intentions to behave environmentally. however when higher uncertainty was combined with a positive frame (highlighting the possibility of losses not materializing) this produced stronger intentions to act. study 2 revealed that these effects of uncertainty were mediated through feelings of efficacy. these results suggest that uncertainty is not an inevitable barrier to action, provided communicators frame climate change messages in ways that trigger caution in the face of uncertainty
When communicating possible effects of climate change what is important to consider
communicating possible effects of climate change inevitably involves uncertainty. because people are generally averse to uncertainty, this activity has the potential to undermine effective action more than stimulate it
Is it possible that how climate change predictions are presented might inspire a different response in regard to an individuals uncertainty
he present research considered how framing climate change predictions differently might moderate the tendency for uncertainty to undermine individual action
communicating possible effects of climate change inevitably involves communicating possible effects of climate change inevitably involves uncertainty. because people are generally averse to uncertainty, this activity has the potential to undermine effective action more than stimulate it. the present research considered how framing climate change predictions differently might moderate the tendency for uncertainty to undermine individual action. two studies n s 88 120) show that higher uncertainty combined with a negative frame (highlighting possible losses) decreased individual intentions to behave environmentally. however when higher uncertainty was combined with a positive frame (highlighting the possibility of losses not materializing) this produced stronger intentions to act. study 2 revealed that these effects of uncertainty were mediated through feelings of efficacy. these results suggest that uncertainty is not an inevitable barrier to action, provided communicators frame climate change messages in ways that trigger caution in the face of uncertainty.
Say about previous analysis?
in many previous analyses (e.g. nwpcc 2005; sailor and munoz 1997; voisin et al. 2006), energy demand has been estimated using aggregated population, temperature (or heating/cooling degree days) and energy use data for large urban centers
what is the sense of this approach?
while this approach certainly make sense given the concentration of pnw population in urban centers (figure 5), here we take the more fundamental approach of estimating population, heating and cooling degree days, and air conditioning market penetration in a gridded format at 1/16th degree latitude by longitude resolution (about 5 by 6.5 km, or roughly 32.5 km2 area
How gridded data are used?
these gridded data are then used to create a gridded heating energy demand index (hedi) and cooling energy demand index (cedi) for each grid cell. hedi is a function of population and heating degree days (hdd), and cedi is a function of population, cooling degree days (cdd), and air conditioning market penetration (a/c_pen, defined below
in many previous analyses (e.g. nwpcc 2005; sailor and munoz 1997; voisin et al. 2006), energy demand has been estimated using aggregated population, temperature (or heating/cooling degree days) and energy use data for large urban centers. while this approach certainly make sense given the concentration of pnw population in urban centers (figure 5), here we take the more fundamental approach of estimating population, heating and cooling degree days, and air conditioning market penetration in a gridded format at 1/16th degree latitude by longitude resolution (about 5 by 6.5 km, or roughly 32.5 km2 area). these gridded data are then used to create a gridded heating energy demand index (hedi) and cooling energy demand index (cedi) for each grid cell. hedi is a function of population and heating degree days (hdd), and cedi is a function of population, cooling degree days (cdd), and air conditioning market penetration (a/c_pen, defined below). the indices are defined as follows:
what does the paper presents?
the paper presents the latest version of the international reference ionosphere model (iri-2016
what IRI-2016 model describes?
iri-2016) describing the most important changes and improvements that were included with this version and discussing their impact on the iri predictions of ionospheric parameters
IRI-2016 includes how many new model options?
iri-2016 includes two new model options for the f2 peak height hmf2 and a better representation of topside ion densities at very low and high solar activities
the paper presents the latest version of the international reference ionosphere model (iri-2016) describing the most important changes and improvements that were included with this version and discussing their impact on the iri predictions of ionospheric parameters. iri-2016 includes two new model options for the f2 peak height hmf2 and a better representation of topside ion densities at very low and high solar activities. in addition, a number of smaller changes were made concerning the use of solar indices and the speedup of the computer program. we also review the latest developments toward a real-time iri. the goal is to progress from predicting climatology to describing the real-time weather conditions in the ionosphere.
What accounts for 44% of China's total CO2 emissions in 2005?
inefficient and coaldominated electricity production is at the core of china's co2 emissions, accounting for 44% of china's total emissions in 2005
What should be the first priority of China and its export partners?
increasing efficiencies, installing more renewable power, and overcoming 18 18 the financial and technological hurdles involved with new technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration (ccs) should be the first priority of china and its export partners alike
What can be a crucial first step involving Kyoto parties?
allowing kyoto parties to count the incremental cost of ccs within the framework of the clean development mechanism could be a crucial first step
whoever is responsible for emissions to produce chinese exports, inefficient and coaldominated electricity production is at the core of china's co2 emissions, accounting for 44% of china's total emissions in 2005. it is clear that urgent improvements are needed in this sector. increasing efficiencies, installing more renewable power, and overcoming 18 18 the financial and technological hurdles involved with new technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration (ccs) should be the first priority of china and its export partners alike. allowing kyoto parties to count the incremental cost of ccs within the framework of the clean development mechanism could be a crucial first step (de coninck, 2008), as this would allow some of the importers of china's carbon-intensive goods to invest in lowering the carbon intensity of chinese exports.
Why do health-related responses, such as general measures designed to protect human systems from floots, exist?
such health-related responses exist in terms of health protection activity in the home and community, health and hygiene education, warning and evacuation practices, disease surveillance and control, provision of health care, protection of health system infrastructure and protection and provision of water and sanitation facilities
When would the health-related responses occur?
these responses may take place before, during and after flood events, and, in practice, the delimitation between preparedness, emergency response and recovery phases of action is often blurred
Who are the actors undertaking these health-related responses?
the actors undertaking these responses include affected individuals, community organisations, medical teams, public agencies, non-governmental organisations and external agencies
together with general measures designed to protect human systems from floods, the survey of literature has revealed various mechanisms and strategies that serve specifically to prevent or address mortality and morbidity impacts. such health-related responses exist in terms of health protection activity in the home and community, health and hygiene education, warning and evacuation practices, disease surveillance and control, provision of health care, protection of health system infrastructure and protection and provision of water and sanitation facilities. these responses may take place before, during and after flood events, and, in practice, the delimitation between preparedness, emergency response and recovery phases of action is often blurred. the actors undertaking these responses include affected individuals, community organisations, medical teams, public agencies, non-governmental organisations and external agencies. though this report does not attempt to provide an inventory of specific mechanisms, in appendix 2 we have produced a summary tabulation of types of health-related response, with selected examples. the provision and organisation of these responses has raised a series of issues discussed in detail in section 4.2, and which we summarize here as the following set of generic considerations for policy and intervention relating to the health risks from floods.
What is the coupler's claim?
figure 10). detailed diagnostics provided by each component and by the coupler indicate that this imbalance is not caused by a violation of the conservation of energy
what they are Paleoclimate regimes
the land and ocean model components each supply about half the flux comprising the total surface imbalance. the land component of the surface balance 19 is associated with the heat required to melt snow. the fact that the surface and tom are losing energy indicates that the model is not in equilibrium even after 600 years of integration. evidence from long simulations of paleoclimate regimes suggests that the time-scale for ccsm3 to approach energetic equilibrium is greater than 2000 years
Write about atmospheric energy?
the net energy absorbed by the atmosphere is just the difference between the tom and surface energy balances. for ccsm3, the mean and rms energy absorbed by the atmosphere is \\x10\\x13 \\x15\\x12(\\x16) \\x15\\x10*\\x0f+\\x19 wm
(figure 10). detailed diagnostics provided by each component and by the coupler indicate that this imbalance is not caused by a violation of the conservation of energy. the land and ocean model components each supply about half the flux comprising the total surface imbalance. the land component of the surface balance 19 is associated with the heat required to melt snow. the fact that the surface and tom are losing energy indicates that the model is not in equilibrium even after 600 years of integration. evidence from long simulations of paleoclimate regimes suggests that the time-scale for ccsm3 to approach energetic equilibrium is greater than 2000 years. the net energy absorbed by the atmosphere is just the difference between the tom and surface energy balances. for ccsm3, the mean and rms energy absorbed by the atmosphere is \\x10\\x13 \\x15\\x12(\\x16) \\x15\\x10*\\x0f+\\x19 wm
What is the behaviour of the Earth when there is climate stability?
at a time of climate stability, earth radiates as much energy to space as it absorbs from sunlight
Reagrding to atmospheric gases, how do we know that today earth is out of balance?
today earth is out of balance because increasing atmospheric gases such as co2 reduce earth's heat radiation to space, thus causing an energy imbalance, as there is less energy going out than coming in
Besides increasing CO2, what other climate forcings affect Earth's energy balance?
other forcings include changes of aerosols, solar irradiance, and earth's surface albedo
at a time of climate stability, earth radiates as much energy to space as it absorbs from sunlight. today earth is out of balance because increasing atmospheric gases such as co2 reduce earth's heat radiation to space, thus causing an energy imbalance, as there is less energy going out than coming in. this imbalance causes earth to warm and move back toward energy balance. the warming and restoration of energy balance take time, however, because of earth's thermal inertia, which is due mainly to the global ocean. earth warmed about 0.8 u c in the past century. that warming increased earth's radiation to space, thus reducing earth's energy imbalance. the remaining energy imbalance helps us assess how much additional warming is still ''in the pipeline''. of course increasing co2 is only one of the factors affecting earth's energy balance, even though it is the largest climate forcing. other forcings include changes of aerosols, solar irradiance, and earth's surface albedo. determination of the state of earth's climate therefore requires measuring the energy imbalance. this is a challenge, because the imbalance is expected to be only about 1 w/m2or less, so accuracy approaching 0.1 w/m2is needed. the most promising
What would Such an ongoing catastrophe-insurance explain?
such an ongoing catastrophe-insurance e$?ect could readily explain why observed rfis so low relative to the observed past average of realized re
What does the Stern Review go over?
the stern review goes over several of these highly-unlikely poorlyunderstood threshold-crossing disasters associated with abrupt large-scale irreversible changes in the climate system: sudden collapse of the greenland and west antarctica ice sheets, weakening or even reversal of thermohaline circulations that might radically a$?ect
What causes possibly extreme weather patterns?
sea-level dynamics, drowned coastlines of unknown magnitude, very di$?erent and possibly extreme weather patterns including droughts and ++oods, ecosystem destruction, mass species extinctions, big changes in worldwide precipitation patterns and distribution of fresh water, tropical-crop failures, large-scale migrations of human populations
such an ongoing catastrophe-insurance e$?ect could readily explain why observed rfis so low relative to the observed past average of realized re. there is little doubt that the worst-case scenarios of global-warming catastrophes are genuinely frightening. the stern review goes over several of these highly-unlikely poorlyunderstood threshold-crossing disasters associated with abrupt large-scale irreversible changes in the climate system: sudden collapse of the greenland and west antarctica ice sheets, weakening or even reversal of thermohaline circulations that might radically a$?ect such things as the gulf stream and european climate, runaway climate-sensitivity ampli...cation of global warming due to positive-reinforcing multiplier feedbacks (including, but not limited to, loss of polar albedo, weakened carbon sinks, and rapid releases of methane from the thawing of arctic permafrost). more gradual but still very serious examples of uncertain climate-change e$?ects are: sea-level dynamics, drowned coastlines of unknown magnitude, very di$?erent and possibly extreme weather patterns including droughts and ++oods, ecosystem destruction, mass species extinctions, big changes in worldwide precipitation patterns and distribution of fresh water, tropical-crop failures, large-scale migrations of human populations, humidity-nourished contagious diseases - and the list goes on and on. translated into the language of the simple model used here, such rare disasters are far out in the right tail of very high  t which corresponds to being far out in the left tail of the consumption-growth random variable g the probability distribution of long-run  t
Have management strategies to influence the frequency and intensity of fires in fynbos been successful?
since management strategies to infl uence the frequency and intensity of fi res in fynbos have been unsuccessful in the past, it may be appropriate to adopt defensive measures as well
What did the fire risk adaptation responses include?
some adaptation responses to fi re risks would include: * increased training in ecological fi re management to improve control of the necessary burning of fynbos vegetation; * increased fi re-fi ghting capabilities, including greater training and investment in capacity for fi re-fi ghting, as well as rapid and effective response to fi res using aircraft for example
Where does plant removal occur?
removal of plantations, especially in areas where future climate change might make them less productive
adaptation initiatives since management strategies to infl uence the frequency and intensity of fi res in fynbos have been unsuccessful in the past, it may be appropriate to adopt defensive measures as well. some adaptation responses to fi re risks would include: * increased training in ecological fi re management to improve control of the necessary burning of fynbos vegetation; * increased fi re-fi ghting capabilities, including greater training and investment in capacity for fi re-fi ghting, as well as rapid and effective response to fi res using aircraft for example; * removal of plantations, especially in areas where future climate change might make them less productive;
By which state is Delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus listed as endangered?
the state of california
Where is Delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus endemic?
the san francisco estuary
According to the studies, what is the average temperature that is a threshold for high mortality of delta smelt?
daily temperature of 25 u c
delta smelt hypomesus transpacificus is endemic to the san francisco estuary [48,49]. it is listed as endangered by the state of california, and a change in status from threatened to endangered has been deemed warranted under the us endangered species act. thus, maintaining the population of delta smelt has become a key goal in managing the estuary to assess the effects of climate change on delta smelt, the frequency of mean daily water temperatures above 25 u c was determined from modeled water temperatures at rio vista (see ''delta water temperature'' above), a location within one tidal excursion of a large portion of delta smelt habitat in the sacramento river. multiple studies indicate that mean daily temperature of 25 u c is a threshold for high mortality of delta smelt [48,51,52]. winter-run chinook salmon oncorhynchus tshawytscha is endemic to the sacramento river system of california and is listed as endangered under both state and us endangered species legislation most of the population is subject to water temperature regulation by shasta reservoir. winter-run chinook salmon begin spawning in the spring. developing embryos and pre-emergent fry are expected to be in the gravel from may through october. the effects of climate change on winter-run chinook salmon were assessed by comparing projected mean
What did the other groups support?
while other groups have not only supported the building of these new tower blocks but also vilified the objectors
What did Livingstone famously likened?
livingstone famously likened english heritage to the taliban of british architecture for its objection to the london bridge scheme
Who voiced their reservations about new tower buildings in the City of London?
9 richard maccormac and sir norman foster have voiced their reservations about new tower buildings in the city of london
several groups, such as english heritage, have raised objections at the planning stage to these developments, while other groups have not only supported the building of these new tower blocks but also vilified the objectors. livingstone famously likened english heritage to the taliban of british architecture for its objection to the london bridge scheme. 9 richard maccormac and sir norman foster have voiced their reservations about new tower buildings in the city of london, that can ' so easily become ghettos, just a series of fragments floating apart and looking after themselves ' 9 sir norman foster sensibly called for ' less hysterical debate - the issues need to be discussed rationally. ' 9 there is a number of people calling for a new look at the potential for ' ground scrapers ' and low-rise, highand medium-density developments.
what is the study for.
understanding and quantifying radiative processes is of fundamental importance to the study of climate and its change
is it global or united states
 radiative processes drive global climate change and play a key role in establishing the temperature structure of the atmosphere
what does the radiative process
 radiative processes drive global climate change and play a key role in establishing the temperature structure of the atmosphere
understanding and quantifying radiative processes is of fundamental importance to the study of climate and its change. radiative processes drive global climate change and play a key role in establishing the temperature structure of the atmosphere. the thermal regime of the middle atmosphere is determined to a great extent by the balance between the incoming solar and outgoing infrared radiation. the radiative heating changes brought on by changes in carbon dioxide and ozone can cause large trends in stratospheric temperatures as well as affect surface climate (wmo, 2003). given the prime importance of radiative processes for understanding the atmosphere and its evolution, the development and improvement of radiation schemes is obviously one of the crucial points in the ongoing development and maintenance of atmospheric models. the purpose of this chapter is to evaluate key radiative processes in the ccmval models. this chapter covers a number of topics. current radiative parameterisation architecture is assessed in section 3.2. global mean temperature pro fi les and longterm trends provided by ccmval models are analysed in section 3.3. in section 3.4, radiative transfer schemes of different ccmval models are compared with each other and compared against line-by-line (lbl) calculations. the chapter 3: radiation 72 incoming solar irradiance at short wavelengths signi fi cantly varies with the solar cycle, leading to strong ozone and temperature solar signals in the stratospheric climate. the ability of ccmval models' radiation schemes to reproduce the solar signal is analysed in section 3.5. the last four sections present metric summaries (3.6), model by model analysis (3.7), recommendations (3.8) and the executive summary (3.9).
What should be the first question in prediction excersise?
in any prediction exercise the first question should be, how well can the predictive model simulate the past? in this section we examine the 20 models' simulation of 20th century climate in the pacific northwest, a step not discussed by cayan et al. (2007) in their two-model study of climate change in california
Which time series is used in this approach?
we use a regionally averaged time series formed by averaging the temperature and precipitation values at all the northwest grid points. the reason for such averaging is that variations in model climate on scales smaller than a few grid cells is not meaningful
What does the model represents ?
the models represent the variations of climate that would occur on a smooth planet with similar land-sea distributions and large smooth bumps where earth has major mountain ranges
in any prediction exercise the first question should be, how well can the predictive model simulate the past? in this section we examine the 20 models' simulation of 20th century climate in the pacific northwest, a step not discussed by cayan et al. (2007) in their two-model study of climate change in california. we use a regionally averaged time series formed by averaging the temperature and precipitation values at all the northwest grid points. the reason for such averaging is that variations in model climate on scales smaller than a few grid cells is not meaningful. put another way, the models represent the variations of climate that would occur on a smooth planet with similar land-sea distributions and large smooth bumps where earth has major mountain ranges.
How much have global temperatures risen in the last 100 years?
global temperatures have risen by around 0.74 degrees celsius in the last 100 years
Preventing a rise in global temperatures of how many degrees is critical?
preventing a rise in global temperatures of more than two degrees celsius above pre-industrial revolution levels is critical
According to the article, which two countries are continuing to see a rise in population?
particularly in emerging economies such as china and india
with the united nations negotiations in december 2009 in copenhagen a focal point for policymakers everywhere, discussion no longer centers on whether climate change should be tackled, but how. typically, policies are aimed at preventing what the 1992 united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) referred to as dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. although there are significant difficulties in defining what constitutes "dangerous" climate change,4 a strong international consensus has emerged that says that preventing a rise in global temperatures of more than two degrees celsius above pre-industrial revolution levels is critical (corresponding to a level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of approximately 450 parts per million). beyond this level, feedback loops in the climate system become increasingly likely-- and the threat of relatively rapid and catastrophic changes becomes significantly greater. unfortunately, the increasing attention paid to mitigating dangerous climate change has not prevented a continuing rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. in fact, emissions are increasing more rapidly than even the worst case scenario modeled by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), and predictions about the likely effects of anthropogenic influence on the climate have become increasingly severe.5 the global population continues to rise (particularly in emerging economies such as china and india), along with the per-capita emissions of many millions of people. it remains to be seen whether global temperatures will exceed the twodegrees limit. but some anthropogenic climate change has already occurred (global temperatures have risen by around 0.74 degrees celsius in the last 100 years) and because of the inertia in the climate system, a further warming of approximately 0.6 degrees celsius is inevitable.6 thus, the window for effectively mitigating against a twodegree rise in global temperatures is extremely narrow, and many prominent members of the climate science community have begun to question whether preventing a rise in global temperatures of this magnitude (or even greater) is possible using existing mitigation approaches.7 scientists and policymakers are increasingly asking what will happen if the two-degrees "guardrail" is breached, particularly if temperature increases in excess of two degrees lead to positive feedback loops and further accelerate climate change. are existing mitigation and adaptation policies enough to prevent catastrophic changes in the climate from occurring? in this context, geoengineering the earth's climate has started to be considered as a serious candidate for both mitigating against and adapting to dangerous climate change.
What did the nationalistic discourse largely ignore?
the nationalistic discourse largely ignored the wide differences that increasingly exist between those who have benefited from india's recent growth and the rural poor who have inherited its environmental legacy (watkins 2007 mawdsley 2004 
What did one reporter say?
according to one reporter, this means that the papers 'pick climate change up, play with it when [the elite] want them to, or not when they don't want to
What did the freelance writers suggest?
the freelance writers interviewed suggested that like in any mass media 'each publication caters to its audience', and so in the case of the english-language press in india the 'media essentially reflects elite perceptions
at the sub-national scale international 'othering' is combined with a lack of discussion of the postcolonial stratification of society that exists within india itself. the nationalistic discourse largely ignored the wide differences that increasingly exist between those who have benefited from india's recent growth and the rural poor who have inherited its environmental legacy (watkins 2007 mawdsley 2004 ). a process of international 'distanciation' in the discourse detracts from discussions about the socio-economic divisions that exist within india (mcmanus 2000 1). in addition, the historical and per-capita focus of the newspapers' coverage portrays a situation where illegitimate and legitimate emissions exist, differentiated by their country of origin and divided along global north-south lines, actually justifying rising emissions in india. in one journalist's words, india feels like it should be 'allowed [its] turn at the party'. at both the international and sub-national scales, then, the coverage of climate change by the english-language press in india re-frames the climate change debate around a nationalistic argument of 'us' versus 'them', at the expense of other key issues in the debate. 6.1 the role of the media in climate change in india the coverage of climate change by the english-language press highlighted in this paper is clearly related to the readership of these newspapers in india. as publications written in english, these four newspapers automatically target and reach a readership that is restricted to the upper sections of society. because of the vertical social stratification that continues to exist in india, the english-language dailies serve only this one elite layer, communicating climate change in a manner that responds to the private sphere whose values and concerns they up-scale (sonwalkar 2002 ). the freelance writers interviewed suggested that like in any mass media 'each publication caters to its audience', and so in the case of the english-language press in india the 'media essentially reflects elite perceptions'. according to one reporter, this means that the papers 'pick climate change up, play with it when [the elite] want them to, or not when they don't want to'. by creating a discourse of international 'carbon colonialism', the papers simultaneously articulate a 'nationalistic narrative' that presents india as socially homogenous while 'backgrounding' the increasing emissions of the industrial elite within the country (fernandes 2000 2; plumwood 2003 in adams and mulligan 2003 56). the national circulation of these newspapers, unique to them within the indian media, reinforces this focus on a national frame. spatially, the english-language dailies do hold the 'national' view (in fact, several journalists claimed to 'hold fort for the rest of the nation'), and so have a unique 'self-proclaimed right to define the nation'
How did the temperature evolve in Mongolia in the past 30 years ?
average temperature in mongolia increased by more than 2 u c since 1940 and all seasons have become warmer
What threatens the central and northern grasslands of Mongolia ?
a changing climate and increased grazing pressure have intensified the threat of desert expansion from south mongolia towards the central and northern grasslands
How much of the territory of Mongolia has been degraded ?
in 2002, it was estimated that over 70% of the total territory was degraded relative to its natural state
the extensive steppes of mongolia are among the largest contiguous expanses of grassland in the world and encompass a region of considerable ecological importance both nationally and internationally. here we present evidence that mongolia's fragile steppe ecosystem is degrading at a rapid rate. mongolia experiences an extreme continental climate characterized by long cold winters, short summers and low annual precipitation. average temperature in mongolia increased by more than 2 u c since 1940 and all seasons have become warmer, whereas annual total precipitation dropped by 7% during the same period in addition, following the privatization of livestock ownership in the early 1990s and rising international demand for cashmere products, the goat population increased from 4.4 million in 1988 to about 20 million in 2008 a changing climate and increased grazing pressure have intensified the threat of desert expansion from south mongolia towards the central and northern grasslands (figure 1a). in 2002, it was estimated that over 70% of the total territory was degraded relative to its natural state to assess the risk of future ecosystem change and the potential for remediation, the relative impacts of climate and human activities need to be understood. here, we utilize a recently developed long term satellite based vegetation optical depth (vod) dataset [4-7] coupled with in situ measurements to investigate climate and anthropogenic factors affecting the vegetative state of mongolian grasslands. to aid in this analysis, gridded estimates of precipitation, surface temperature and a remote sensing based greenness index (normalized difference vegetation index, ndvi) were also used. all data were resampled to a common spatial resolution of 0.25 u (about 25 km) to enable direct inter-comparison. further details on these data can be found in the materials and methods section.
What exerts both direct and indirect influences on the transmission and geographical distribution of many infectious diseases in humans and animals?
climate exerts both direct and indirect infl uences on the transmission and geographical distribution of many infectious diseases in humans and animals
What can be mediated by pathogen replication rate, pathogen dissemination, the movement and replication of vectors and abundance of animal hosts?
direct effects can be mediated by pathogen replication rate, pathogen dissemination, the movement and replication of vectors and abundance of animal hosts
What interacts with a range of factors that shape the course of infectious disease emergence?
climate interacts with a range of factors that shape the course of infectious disease emergence
climate exerts both direct and indirect infl uences on the transmission and geographical distribution of many infectious diseases in humans and animals (institute of medicine (iom) 2008). direct effects can be mediated by pathogen replication rate, pathogen dissemination, the movement and replication of vectors and abundance of animal hosts. additionally there are relevant indirect effects of climate on local ecosystems (for example, density of vegetation benefi cial to vectors) and human behaviour (for example, resulting in more exposure to local habitat). as the iom has noted, the infl uences are complex and inter-related, ' climate interacts with a range of factors that shape the course of infectious disease emergence, including host, vector and pathogen population dynamics; land use, trade and transportation; human and animal migration ... ', and these interactions complicate the attribution of effects. in addition to the confounding effects and competing explanations, there are acknowledged methodological diffi culties in ascribing the changes in the range and incidence of transmissible diseases to climate change, primarily because of the weakness and fragmentation of health information systems and the limited sources of long-term data sets. notwithstanding the methodological diffi culties, improving european preparedness and responsiveness relies on collecting fi rm evidence at the local, national and regional levels of the infl uence of climate change on established diseases, while also being alert to the emergence of new communicable disorders. in aggregate, there is a major research agenda to be
what do the green / yellow dots represent?
yellow/green dots represent the global temperature signal of forest cover losses and gains
what do the light red / blue bars represent?
light red/blue bars indicate the warming/cooling due to the net change in forest cover
what were the causes of the Changes in monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air surface temperature?
changes in monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air surface temperature due to forest cover change
fig. 4. net impact of deforestation and afforestation on monthly air surface temperatures. fig. 4. net impact of deforestation and afforestation on monthly air surface temperatures. changes in monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air surface temperature due to forest cover change over the c1) boreal, c2) temperate and c3) tropical climate zones (the arid zone has experienced minor changes in forest cover). yellow/green dots represent the global temperature signal of forest cover losses and gains, while light red/blue bars indicate the warming/cooling due to the net change in forest cover (the equivalent image for land surface temperature is reported in fig. s8).
Who contributed advice related to the climate?
yarrow axford for paleoclimate advice and related citations
Who shared unpublished data?
svetlana borinskaya for sharing unpublished data
Who provided support on software related t oclimate?
kurt spokas for his fine climate software and support
thanks to bill leonard, thom mcdade, julienne rutherford, marco aiello, jared bragg, and aryeh jacobsohn for valuable discussion and comments; yarrow axford for paleoclimate advice and related citations; ricardo godoy for econometrics consultations and discussions; david serre and colleagues for sharing unpublished allele frequencies from the hgdp-ceph samples; sarabjit mastana for sharing the digital dataset from his worldwide apoe analysis; robert mahley for sharing unpublished allele frequencies by region in turkey; svetlana borinskaya for sharing unpublished data; kurt spokas for his fine climate software and support; kevin jacobs for help with glu; nick patterson for help with eigenstrat; and jim devona for his customization of kurt spokas's software and programming the batch usgs elevation query module. dtae is funded by a
What is the reduction of oil rent and natural gas?
reduction of the oil rent is largest (3.5tril.us$), closely followed by coal, if the 550-e target is imposed; for the 450-e target the reduction of the oil rent is 5.7tril.us$ and natural gas rent loss is second with 3.6tril.us
What is the rent of carbon In 550-e and 450-e case?
the carbon rent is 21.2tril.us$ for the 550-e and 31.9tril.us$ for the 450-e case
Which region will used high energy demand of fossil fuels?
it shows that regions with high energy demand like china would generate huge carbon rents that are much larger than the loss of fossil fuel rent
reduction of the oil rent is largest (3.5tril.us$), closely followed by coal, if the 550-e target is imposed; for the 450-e target the reduction of the oil rent is 5.7tril.us$ and natural gas rent loss is second with 3.6tril.us$. the carbon rent is 21.2tril.us$ for the 550-e and 31.9tril.us$ for the 450-e case. carbon prices are shown in fig. s12. regional changes of carbon rents are shown in fig. s14. it shows that regions with high energy demand like china would generate huge carbon rents that are much larger than the loss of fossil fuel rent. for other regions including the middle east and north africa showing the largest loss of fossil fuel rent the carbon rent is still sufficient to compensate. however, for a country like russia the compensation is not feasible based on the domestically generated carbon rent. in summary, the loss of fossil fuel rent could be compensated by the carbon rent at the global level, but this does not hold for necessarily hold for all countries.
What is a precondition for behavior change?
closing the awareness gap
Who were afforded the highest degree of confidence from survey respondents?
those labelled 'experts' - with an unidentified field of expertise
What surveyed groups ranked second?
75 ngos and environmental groups
closing the awareness gap appears to be an important precondition for behaviour change. an important question, therefore, is who is best placed to inform publics of the links between livestock and climate change. the survey assessed public confidence in a range of sources to which consumers may turn for information about the environmental and health consequences of meat and dairy consumption. across all countries polled, those labelled 'experts' - with an unidentified field of expertise - were afforded the highest degree of confidence from respondents, a result which is supported by numerous other studies, including the recent greendex analysis.75 ngos and environmental groups ranked second, although there were important differences across countries (see figure 9). figure 9: actors perceived as helpful sources of information on climate and livestock issues
Who supported the work of the fiirst author?
the project ''lake ecosystem response to environmental change (lerec
Who founded the 'Lake Ecosystem Response to Environmental Change (LEREC)?
the swedish research council for environment, agricultural sciences and spatial planning
Who supported the the Integration of the Terrestrial and Aquatic Carbon Cycles working group?
the national center for ecological analysis and synthesis
acknowledgments we thank craig williamson and jasmine saros for organizing the chapman conference on ''lakes and reservoirs as sentinels, integrators, and regulators of climate change'' and for facilitating our work with this synthesis. the work of the first author was supported by the project ''lake ecosystem response to environmental change (lerec),'' funded by the swedish research council for environment, agricultural sciences and spatial planning. some of the ideas developed here emerged from the integration of the terrestrial and aquatic carbon cycles working group supported by the national center for ecological analysis and synthesis, a center funded by the national science foundation (nsf) (grant deb-94-21535); the university of california at santa barbara; and the state of california. editors, reviewers, and glenn benoy gave outstanding advice on the first submitted version of the paper.
Define Significant technical progress relevant?
significant technical progress relevant to the potential for greenhouse gas emission reductions has been made since the sar in 1995, and has been faster than anticipated
How net emissions can be reduced?
net emissions reductions could be achieved through a portfolio of technologies (e.g., more efficient conversion in production and use of energy, shift to lowor no-greenhouse gas-emitting technologies, carbon removal and storage, and improved land use, land-use change, and forestry practices
Explain advances taking place in wide range of technologies?
advances are taking place in a wide range of technologies at different stages of development, ranging from the market of wind turbines and the rapid elimination of industrial by-product gases, to the advancement of fuel cell technology and the demonstration of underground co2 storage
significant technical progress relevant to the potential for greenhouse gas emission reductions has been made since the sar in 1995, and has been faster than anticipated. net emissions reductions could be achieved through a portfolio of technologies (e.g., more efficient conversion in production and use of energy, shift to lowor no-greenhouse gas-emitting technologies, carbon removal and storage, and improved land use, land-use change, and forestry practices). advances are taking place in a wide range of technologies at different stages of development, ranging from the market of wind turbines and the rapid elimination of industrial by-product gases, to the advancement of fuel cell technology and the demonstration of underground co2 storage.
What are the challenges facing technical mitigation policies?
developing, implementing, monitoring and enforcing technical mitigation policies raise challenges in terms of complexity, transaction costs and a lack of data
What could result from insufficient granular data?
a lack of sufficiently granular data may make it impossible to measure and manage emissions consistently across a diversity of farms and farming systems, and presents technical challenges to incorporating agriculture into emissions trading schemes
What happens when farming systems are fragmented and dispersed?
fragmented and dispersed farming systems increase the costs associated with measuring and monitoring on-farm emissions, whether for emissions trading purposes or for the elaboration and enforcement of 'command and control' policies
developing, implementing, monitoring and enforcing technical mitigation policies raise challenges in terms of complexity, transaction costs and a lack of data. the livestock sector is heterogeneous in nature, with practices and approaches influenced by a variety of contextual factors ranging from climatic and biophysical conditions to levels of economic and infrastructural development, and institutional factors such as the regimes that govern land ownership and use. this makes identifying appropriate, context-specific strategies complicated, particularly where there may be distinct or competing objectives that could, for example, include economic development, biodiversity, food security and water management alongside emissions reductions. a lack of sufficiently granular data may make it impossible to measure and manage emissions consistently across a diversity of farms and farming systems, and presents technical challenges to incorporating agriculture into emissions trading schemes.28 fragmented and dispersed farming systems increase the costs associated with measuring and monitoring on-farm emissions, whether for emissions trading purposes or for the elaboration and enforcement of 'command and control' policies.29
The situation is different in other Swedish teacher programs. Why is it said so?
it is possible that the situation is different in other swedish teacher programs because universities are free to decide the content of their teacher-training courses
What is the state of class room climate studies  in the Swedish curriculum for teachers?
we can conclude that the inclusion of classroom climate studies is not guaranteed in the swedish curriculum for teachers. the national agency for education (skolverket) publishes reports and other materials on various educational themes. a search in this publication database, containing 1,285 documents, using the swedish terms for classroom climate, school climate, social climate and bullying was performed. it gave one hit for social climate (national agency of education [nae] 2003 ), one hit for classroom climate (national agency of education [nae] 2006 and 12 hits for bullying
it is possible that the situation is different in other swedish teacher programs because universities are free to decide the content of their teacher-training courses. it is also possible that teachers discuss with their students issues that are not reflected in the prescribed reading (e.g. in connection with their practical training). however, from this example, we can conclude that the inclusion of classroom climate studies is not guaranteed in the swedish curriculum for teachers. the national agency for education (skolverket) publishes reports and other materials on various educational themes. a search in this publication database, containing 1,285 documents, using the swedish terms for classroom climate, school climate, social climate and bullying was performed. it gave one hit for social climate (national agency of education [nae] 2003 ), one hit for classroom climate (national agency of education [nae] 2006 and 12 hits for bullying. another way to look at the relevance of the themes of classroom climate, and its related fields in the educational debate, is to look at the contents of the research programs that received grants from the swedish research council (src 2008 in the subject of educational science in the last 7 years, when the council distributed funds specifically intended for educational research. a review of the project database gives 290 hits: 25 of these have a title or a short project description indicating that they treat issues at least broadly related to physical and social learning environments, school climate, classroom climate, interactions and relations, teachers' role and strategies, participation and exclusion, or organisation and values in educational settings. of these 25 programs, there are only four programs (1.3%) that seems to have--when reading their short description--their main focus on the psychosocial aspects of educational settings, or classroom climate, in primary and secondary education, and for which organisational or didactic issues, subject-related motives, or the physical environment are not the main issues. considering the tendencies that seem corroborated by these analyses, it could be relevant to attempt to understand the reasons underlying this neglect of social climate issues occurring in the educational field. this disregard appears quite strange if we consider its recognised value emerging from research. aim and method the aim of this article is to analyse the reasons underlying the present sparse attention devoted to the concept of classroom climate, or the social climate of learning environments, in the fields of educational research and teacher education, in spite of the evidence from several fields of research that testifies to the importance of classroom climate for students' well-being and outcomes and education quality. the learning environment is a context for students' learning processes, but can be placed in a broader context, if we consider its interplay with other external factors in an integrated systems framework. for instance, moos 1991 suggested that a relevant task for the study of learning environments is investigation of the complex connections between school, work and family settings. the aim of this study is similar, in the sense that it also looks at the interplay of factors at various levels in the educational system. one difference is that the object of this analysis is not the social climate of learning environments as an observable phenomenon, but rather the concept of social climate itself. the aim is to describe how conceptions of social climate (e.g. beliefs about or attitudes towards social climate in educational settings) are influenced by contextual factors, and by their interplay
What can enhance the risk of extreme weather events?
while reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events
How many regions are exposed?
several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages
How is it evaluated?
using an ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated
while reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. a multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple climate extremes in europe along the twenty-first century is hereby presented. using an ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated. corresponding variations in expected annual exposure allow for a quantitative comparison of hazards described by different process characteristics and metrics. projected changes in exposure depict important variations in hazard scenarios, especially those linked to rising temperatures, and spatial patterns largely modulated by local climate conditions. results show that europe will likely
What is the first critical step for engagement in the adaptation planning process?
assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. multiple approaches are available
What is one limitation of using these methods?
assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. multiple approaches are available
What is the most crucial precursir to identifying adaptaion strategies for our natural resources?
the critical precursor to identifying appropriate adaptation strategies for natural resources is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets and on the outcomes of existing management in order to develop and modify management actions and allocate resources (west and others 2009 
assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. multiple approaches are available. while all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. we address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. with many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. with some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future. keywords climate change  vulnerability assessments  management  species  adaptation planning multiple lines of evidence point to widespread impacts of warming temperatures and climatic extremes on species and ecosystem processes, prompting natural resource practitioners to look for ways to incorporate the threat of this exacerbating stressor into management planning. in recent years numerous papers have outlined broadspectrum strategies for adaptation, which we define as human actions intended to reduce the biophysical impacts of climate change, to address this pressing issue (e.g., millar and others 2007 baron and others 2009 mawdsley and others 2009 lawler and others 2010a hansen and others 2010 ). the critical precursor to identifying appropriate adaptation strategies for natural resources is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets and on the outcomes of existing management in order to develop and modify management actions and allocate resources (west and others 2009 ). given the availability of multiple approaches and the uncertainties associated with climate projections and models for forecasting species' responses, starting the process may seem daunting.
What is the threat to our life on earth ?
the continuation of capitalist operations, which indicate an ongoing increase in carbon emissions, threatens to undermine the capacity of the biosphere to support life on earth
What causes the earth warming ?
the accumulation of co2 in the atmosphere is causing a warming of the earth
What are the  expectation of  IPCC ? and what does it signify ?
the ipcc expectation of an increase in temperature of 1.5-6.0*c during this century signifies a rift in the carbon metabolism, as carbon waste accumulates in the biosphere. given the logic of capital, we know that it cannot mend the carbon cycle. capital only has a productive cycle, which takes precedence over the maintenance of the natural world, in order to continue its accumulation of capital
the continuation of capitalist operations, which indicate an ongoing increase in carbon emissions, threatens to undermine the capacity of the biosphere to support life on earth. the accumulation of co2 in the atmosphere is causing a warming of the earth. the ipcc expectation of an increase in temperature of 1.5-6.0*c during this century signifies a rift in the carbon metabolism, as carbon waste accumulates in the biosphere. given the logic of capital, we know that it cannot mend the carbon cycle. capital only has a productive cycle, which takes precedence over the maintenance of the natural world, in order to continue its accumulation of capital. thus, capitalism continuously creates and deepens metabolic rifts, separating the social metabolism from the natural metabolism. as a result, the changes induced in nature feedback, influencing social conditions for humans. as buell argues, we are currently living in an environmental crisis that threatens large-scale ecocide.134
What are the two fire control strategies proposed by Barlow and Peres (2004)?
rather than suppressing fire and carrying out prescribed burning, barlow and peres (2004) propose two strategies for fire control in humid tropical forests: reducing forest flammability (e.g., forest management should avoid increasing understorey fuel load and reducing understorey humidity) and preventing fire from reaching flammable forests (e.g., with firebreaks, education, legislation and financial incentives
How do fire control strategies interact with climate change?
fire control may be counterproductive in the long term when climate is changing (hulme 2005
Is buffering forests from fires economically viable?
measures to buffer forests from perturbations may be very costly and beyond the economic means of most tropical countries (barlow and peres 2004
rather than suppressing fire and carrying out prescribed burning, barlow and peres (2004) propose two strategies for fire control in humid tropical forests: reducing forest flammability (e.g., forest management should avoid increasing understorey fuel load and reducing understorey humidity) and preventing fire from reaching flammable forests (e.g., with firebreaks, education, legislation and financial incentives). measures to buffer forests from perturbations may be very costly and beyond the economic means of most tropical countries (barlow and peres 2004). moreover, some measures may have negative environmental impacts (e.g., herbicides) or not be sustainable. fire control may be counterproductive in the long term when climate is changing (hulme 2005). to facilitate a shift or evolution of the ecosystem (see figure 2, right), one measure is to enhance landscape connectivity and reduce fragmentation. connectivity between habitats increases the ability of species to migrate. corridors established in the direction of the climate gradient could help species to adapt to climate change (noss 2001). another measure consists of defining high priority areas for conservation under scenarios of climate
What percentage of global CO2 emissions were in the production of exports?
in 2001, 22% of global co2 emissions were in the production of exports
What shows a key explanatory variable for the share of emissions in the production of exports is country size?
in general, small countries have larger shares while large, and thus relatively selfsufficient, countries have lower shares
What percentage of South Korea's domestic emissions are in the production of exports?
south korea 28
the current focus on china mirrors the importance of trade in the environmental profile of many other countries. for example, in 2001, 22% of global co2 emissions were in the production of exports (peters and hertwich, 2008a). countries vary widely in their relative shares of co2 in trade; most european countries have a high share of their domestic emissions in the production of exports (20-50%), the usa had 8%, japan 15%, india 13%, south korea 28%, and south africa 45% (peters and hertwich, 2008a). a key explanatory variable for the share of emissions in the production of exports is size - in general, small countries have larger shares while large, and thus relatively selfsufficient, countries have lower shares. china does not fall into this categorization as it is a large country with a large share of exports. china's exports thus play a more important role in its environmental profile compared to other countries.
Which models are currently conducted at several meteorological centers around the world?
dynamical seasonal predictions (dsp) with stateofthe art atmospheric general circulation models (agcms) are currently conducted at several meteorological centers around the world
Why different models have different biases in their simulation of climate and its interannual variability?
since most models being used are different, either in their formulation of numerical schemes or in their representation of physical processes, different models have different biases in their simulation of climate and its interannual variability
In weather prediction what has been recognized?
in weather prediction, the practical usefulness of combining different forecasts into a more skillful single forecasts has long been recognized
dynamical seasonal predictions (dsp) with stateofthe art atmospheric general circulation models (agcms) are currently conducted at several meteorological centers around the world. since most models being used are different, either in their formulation of numerical schemes or in their representation of physical processes, different models have different biases in their simulation of climate and its interannual variability. for this reason the skill scores of dsp are also model dependent pavan and doblas-reyes 2000; shukla et al. 2000]. a very practical question is thus often raised: is it possible to enhance seasonal prediction skill by combining predictions from different agcms? some studies have been carried out to explore this possibility, but these have provided conflicting results. in weather prediction, the practical usefulness of combining different forecasts into a more skillful single forecasts has long been recognized. for example, by linearly combining two independent forecasts with weights determined by the gaussian method of least squares, thompson [1977] found that the mean square error of the constructed forecasts is less than that of the individual
Which data was used to assess their performance before the different SD methods?
reanalysis data
What the use of common data sets, calibration/validation periods and test statistics provided?
the use of common data sets, calibration/validation periods and test statistics provided a rigorous experimental framework for answering such well-defined questions as: is there any systematic difference in performance of the methods between different seasons, indices and regions, or between direct methods in which the seasonal indices of extremes are downscaled and indirect methods in which daily time series are generated and the seasonal indices then calculated from these
How many European regions the case-study approach taken in STARDEX3 encompasses?
a case-study approach was taken in stardex3, encompassing six european regions and europe as a whole
a case-study approach was taken in stardex3, encompassing six european regions and europe as a whole (the latter utilising a new data set of almost 500 daily station time series for the period 1958-2000). before the different sd methods were applied to output from global climate models, their performance was assessed using reanalysis data. the use of common data sets, calibration/validation periods and test statistics provided a rigorous experimental framework for answering such well-defined questions as: is there any systematic difference in performance of the methods between different seasons, indices and regions, or between direct methods in which the seasonal indices of extremes are downscaled and indirect methods in which daily time series are generated and the seasonal indices then calculated from these?
What changes in mean values of hydroclimatic variables can do?
changes in mean values of hydroclimatic variables can induce relatively large changes in the frequency of extreme events as examples, we show projections of increasing frequency of exceptional sea level and water temperature in both scenarios, and of decreasing floodplain inundation in the a2 scenario (fig. 4
What decreasing floodplain inundation imply?
these imply growing risks of coastal flooding, extinction of native fishes, and decreasing feasibility of some ecosystem restoration actions
In what are today's resource-management based?
today's resource-management tools are grounded in the assumption of stationary processes of natural variability
these projections highlight an important manifestation of climate change: changes in mean values of hydroclimatic variables can induce relatively large changes in the frequency of extreme events as examples, we show projections of increasing frequency of exceptional sea level and water temperature in both scenarios, and of decreasing floodplain inundation in the a2 scenario (fig. 4). these imply growing risks of coastal flooding, extinction of native fishes, and decreasing feasibility of some ecosystem restoration actions. therefore, regional resource planning and risk assessments should anticipate shifts into regimes of environmental conditions unprecedented in the period of our social and economic development. this challenge is daunting because of large uncertainty reflected in the variability among indicators in their sensitivity to climate scenario (fig. 4), and because changing frequency of extreme conditions implies that the indicators will fluctuate within new envelopes of variability over time - i.e., their underlying drivers become non-stationary. today's resource-management tools are grounded in the assumption of stationary processes of natural variability. climate change undermines that assumption so adaptation will require development of new probabilistic models to assess environmental changes and their uncertainty in a nonstationary world.
What could increase mosquito reproduction and development ?
longer and warmer springs and summers resulting from climate change
How does cold temperatures affects mosquito population ?
cold temperatures currently reduce mosquito populations by killing mosquito eggs, larvae and adults
What could  increase breeding areas for mosquitoes ?
increases in extreme weather events, especially those that trigger flooding
there are concerns that future changes in climate could lead to conditions that are more favourable for the establishment and/or proliferation of vectorand rodent-borne diseases.(24)the impacts of climate change on these diseases are generally expected to result from the effects of changing temperature, rainfall and humidity on the vector species, although the development rates of the pathogens themselves may also be affected. for example, longer and warmer springs and summers resulting from climate change could increase mosquito reproduction and development, and also increase the tendency of mosquitoes to bite.(29)mosquitoes would also benefit from warmer winters, as cold temperatures currently reduce mosquito populations by killing mosquito eggs, larvae and adults.(29)furthermore, increases in extreme weather events, especially those that trigger flooding, could increase breeding areas for mosquitoes by creating more shallow pools of stagnant water.(29)
How many simulations were run for each for the future emission scenarios?
1000 simulations were run
population changes under projected climate change scenarios we used projections for uk climate under four alternative greenhouse gas emission scenarios: low, medium-low, medium-high, and high, from the ukcip02 future scenarios prepared for the uk climate impacts programme (ukcip; hulme et al. 2002). projections were available for three future time slices: the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2080s. stochastic yearly series for mean june sst to 2100 were produced for each emission scenario by assuming a linear increase between mid points of the time slices. although extreme events are projected to become more common in most climate forecasting exercises, for simplicity it was assumed that variability about the lines were both similar to that seen in the historic data for the baseline time series and normally distributed. the model identified as most appropriate to simulate population dynamics (model 3) was used with mean june sst future projections. 1000 simulations were run for each for the future emission scenarios. results
What  has become a major player in the energy generation field?
wind energy has become a major player in the energy generation field
What percentage did the government that the Britain would get electricity from renewables by 2020?
the government hoped then that britain would get 20% of its electricity from renewables by 2020
Which company is considering plans to build wind turbines on its own land?
british telecom (bt) is considering plans to build wind turbines on its own land and invest in other renewable energy schemes in an attempt to meet its own targets for reducing greenhouse gases
wind energy has become a major player in the energy generation field and will become even more so with a planned increase in wind markets over the coming years. on 18 december 2003, the department of trade and industry and the crown estate announced that 12 successful developers have been offered 15 site leases, with a potential combined capacity of 5.4 - 7.2 gw of offshore wind energy. 39 new wind farms should provide enough power for about one in six british households by 2010, and will help to meet the target of 10% of uk energy from renewables by that date. the government hoped then that britain would get 20% of its electricity from renewables by 2020 and not only are the power companies enthusiastic about the boost for wind power but also the government predicts that local communities will benefit as it is estimated that the manufacturing of the wind turbines, and the construction and maintenance of the offshore wind farms would employ about 20 000 people. large firms with little experience in energy generation are also getting in on the market. british telecom (bt) is considering plans to build wind turbines on its own land and invest in other renewable energy schemes in an attempt to meet its own targets for reducing greenhouse gases. the company believes that unless something drastic is done the (self-imposed) target of more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Which book did Le Corbusier published in 1928?
le corbusier, arguably the greatest of the modern movement architects, published his influential book vers une architecture in 1928. 2 in this he expounds his theories of a new spirit, for traditional architecture that was ' stifled by custom ' in his writings in search of ' l'esth e tique de la vie moderne ' the modern aesthetic, he had already developed in 1926 his ideas based on what would become known as ' the five points towards a new architecture 
Who is the greatest of the Modern Movement architects?
le corbusier, arguably the greatest of the modern movement architects, published his influential book vers une architecture in 1928. 2 in this he expounds his theories of a new spirit, for traditional architecture that was ' stifled by custom ' in his writings in search of ' l'esth e tique de la vie moderne ' the modern aesthetic, he had already developed in 1926 his ideas based on what would become known as ' the five points towards a new architecture 
In which year ' The Five Points Towards a New Architecture ' were developed?
he had already developed in 1926 his ideas based on what would become known as ' the five points towards a new architecture ' 1. the piloti is elevating the mass off the ground. this was seen by corbusier as freeing up leisure space at ground level, but it has the side effect of decoupling buildings from the influence of stable ground temperatures. 2. the free plan, achieved through the separation of the load-bearing columns from the walls subdividing the space (creating an architecture of planes from which the thin tight-skinned building evolved
le corbusier, arguably the greatest of the modern movement architects, published his influential book vers une architecture in 1928. 2 in this he expounds his theories of a new spirit, for traditional architecture that was ' stifled by custom ' in his writings in search of ' l'esth e tique de la vie moderne ' the modern aesthetic, he had already developed in 1926 his ideas based on what would become known as ' the five points towards a new architecture ' 1. the piloti is elevating the mass off the ground. this was seen by corbusier as freeing up leisure space at ground level, but it has the side effect of decoupling buildings from the influence of stable ground temperatures. 2. the free plan, achieved through the separation of the load-bearing columns from the walls subdividing the space (creating an architecture of planes from which the thin tight-skinned building evolved). 3. the free fa c ade, the corollary of the free plan in the vertical plane (signalling the demise of walls and windows in buildings). 4. the long horizontal sliding window (eliminating centuries of the evolution of the complex ventilation and shading strategies that are central to the effective performance of vernacular buildings in different climates). 5. the roof garden, restoring the area of ground covered by the house (the elimination of gardens for households, cutting the link between man and nature and creating a soulless rejecting language for streets, where the street becomes nothing more than an often hostile transport route cut off completely from the lives of those within the adjacent buildings). of those five points only the roof garden can improve the thermal performance of a building in some, notably temperate, climates. to raise a building off the ground is to decouple it from the stable temperatures of the ground and expose the sixth face of the building to the unstable climate of the air. this may be beneficial in the moderate temperatures of the tropics but can have devastating effects on the energy demand of a building in temperate, cold or hot climates and at various times of year. the deep plan building makes mechanical air conditioning a necessity as only relatively shallow plan buildings can be naturally ventilated. the free fa c ade has turned traditionally robust walls with sensibly sized windows into sheets of glass or thin cladding, which increase the vulnerability of the building occupants to any external climate by an order of magnitude, and impose huge energy penalties onto building owners as they try to stabilize internal climates into a controlled ' comfort ' zone. the long horizontal sliding window, as we saw in villa mala parte, almost eliminates any easily usable connection between the inside and outside climates and has led to the virtual more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
In von Sperling (2002), what were the dependent variables?
von sperling (2002), having as dependent variable the ratio between the k value for the idealised regime (cstr or plug flow) and the k value for the general regime (dispersed flow). the dependent variables were then kcstr kdisp and kplug kdisp
In von Sperling (2002), what were the independent variables?
the independent variables were the dimensionless product kdisp.t and the dispersion number d
In von Sperling (2002), why were two regression analyses done?
two regression analyses were done, each one having different applicability ranges
k using the cstr model will lead to an overestimation of the k coefficient, in order to compensate for the inherent lower efficiency associated with the cstr model. in order to extend the applicability of tables 8.10 and 8.11, a regression analysis was done by von sperling (2002), having as dependent variable the ratio between the k value for the idealised regime (cstr or plug flow) and the k value for the general regime (dispersed flow). the dependent variables were then kcstr kdisp and kplug kdisp. the independent variables were the dimensionless product kdisp.t and the dispersion number d. two regression analyses were done, each one having different applicability ranges. the equations of best fit obtained were: wider applicability range (d from 0.1 to 4.0; kdisp.t from 0 to 10; n 55 values from tables 8.10 and 8.11):
What have the DMF explored?
links between climate change and current climate-related risks have also been explored by the disaster management facility (dmf
What has the DMF been advocating?
the dmf has been advocating a move away from purely responsive disaster management towards prevention of disasters by active risk reduction, integrated in reconstruction projects as well as in regular development planning
What has a major study by Gilbert and Kreimer concluded?
a major study of all post-disaster reconstruction projects concludes that a shift is needed, from a primarily reactive stance to natural disasters, to a more proactive approach, reducing vulnerability to natural disasters instead of only reconstructing afterwards
"our interventions will aim to reduce this vulnerability and the cost of natural disasters by supporting upland resource management and payments for environmental services; assessing the impacts of natural disasters; improving weather forecasting and the dissemination of weather-related information; providing information to communities about the risks they face; and stabilizing hillsides and coastal zones.". the global climate change team highlighted the opportunities for climate risk reduction through better management of current climate variability in an analysis of the bank's work in the context of the 97/98 el nino (van aalst et al. 2000). these links between climate change and current climate-related risks have also been explored by the disaster management facility (dmf). the dmf has been advocating a move away from purely responsive disaster management towards prevention of disasters by active risk reduction, integrated in reconstruction projects as well as in regular development planning. a major study of all post-disaster reconstruction projects concludes that a shift is needed, from a primarily reactive stance to natural disasters, to a more proactive approach, reducing vulnerability to natural disasters instead of only reconstructing afterwards (gilbert and kreimer 1999). it concludes that this proactive approach must be a part of general sustainable development, and integrated in the cas process. however, it also notes that further research is required on best practices, as well as cost/benefits of natural hazard risk reduction strategies and measures. some of these studies are currently underway, including a major effort to assess the economic consequences of natural disasters in three countries: dominica, bangladesh, and malawi (benson et al. 2001, benson and clay 2002, clay et al. 2003).
Can contraceptive use affect sustainable population?
because contraceptive use in a population is the major determinant of birth rate and hence population growth or decline, family planning is not just an adaptation to climatic change but also a mitigation strategy to achieve a sustainable population (panel 5
Is pregnancy planning a perfect pursuit?
according to the un population fund, many women in every country report that their last birth was unwanted or mistimed
Funds for what other condition have caused a reduction for contraceptive service support?
the poorest people have the least access to, and greatest need for, contraceptive services; however, since 1994, funding for family planning programmes has been reduced, partly because of the diversion of funds to hiv/aids
because contraceptive use in a population is the major determinant of birth rate and hence population growth or decline, family planning is not just an adaptation to climatic change but also a mitigation strategy to achieve a sustainable population (panel 5). the predicted population increase is unsustainable and will severely exacerbate the issues of urbanisation in developing nations. obstacles to eff ective use of family planning are complex, but much experience exists in providing family planning services that can meet the needs of about one in six women worldwide who want to delay or cease childbearing but cannot access eff ective contraceptive methods. according to the un population fund, many women in every country report that their last birth was unwanted or mistimed. the 1994 international conference on population and development in cairo (egypt) emphasised the importance of reproductive health and of empowering women to take charge of their reproductive lives. the poorest people have the least access to, and greatest need for, contraceptive services; however, since 1994, funding for family planning programmes has been reduced, partly because of the diversion of funds to hiv/aids. additionally, us agency for international development (usaid) funds under republican administrations have been subject to the gag rule, which stipulated that, to be eligible for usaid funding, an organisation could not spend any funding from any other source on abortion-related activities. this rule was repealed by president obama in early 2009, so family planning service delivery is hoped to improve in the future in the poorest countries.
How would things change if people knew their effect on the environment?
however, research has shown repeatedly that knowledge, even of the causes of climate change, alone is not enough to motivate and shape effective mitigation outcomes due to cognitive, social, practical, and institutional barriers
Can more knowledge help people be better?
more knowledge of a problem does not necessarily, directly, and by itself lead to change in behavior, and sometimes it can actually hinder behavior change
What is necessary for people to change?!
at the very least, more concrete guidance and pragmatic help with how to realize changes in energy consumption are necessary
what then if individuals were aware of and knew how their energy use and the products they consume contributed to ghg emissions and thus to climate change? would they change their climate-significant behaviors? knowledge of climate change alone is commonly considered a desirable but insufficient condition for mitigating ghg. more specifically, knowledge of the causes of anthropogenic climate change is generally considered useful as it lays an initial foundation for directing people to the right kinds of mitigative actions. however, research has shown repeatedly that knowledge, even of the causes of climate change, alone is not enough to motivate and shape effective mitigation outcomes due to cognitive, social, practical, and institutional barriers.54despite the continued reliance on information campaigns to mobilize action, communication research has largely dispelled the knowledgeor information-deficit model of environmental education and communication.62-65more knowledge of a problem does not necessarily, directly, and by itself lead to change in behavior, and sometimes it can actually hinder behavior change.66,67at the very least, more concrete guidance and pragmatic help with how to realize changes in energy consumption are necessary. typically, however, a range of enabling and supporting conditions must also be met, including social and institutional support, policy and infrastructure changes, and often clear signals from the market.32
How people interpret the climate change?
there is evidence that suggests people interpret such probability descriptors more subjectively than scientists intend
Which increase the global average temperatures ?
most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic ghg [greenhouse gas] concentrations
Which cause almost 90% to global average temperature?
the ipcc meant that there is a 90 percent or greater likelihood that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities have caused most of the global average temperature increase since the mid-20th century
although such terms have greatly permeated public discourse on climate change, there is evidence that suggests people interpret such probability descriptors more subjectively than scientists intend. for example, in a recent report's summary for policymakers, the ipcc stated, "most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic ghg [greenhouse gas] concentrations."44 from the use of the term "very likely" in this sentence, the ipcc meant that there is a 90 percent or greater likelihood that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities have caused most of the global average temperature increase since the mid-20th century. but in a study by researchers at the university of illinois at urbana-champaign, people assigned lower likelihood values to the ipcc's descriptors compared
What does the Fermi surface characterize?
the fermi surface that characterizes the electronic band structure of crystalline solids
What happens to the Fermi surface of copper?
even the very simple fermi surface of copper causes strongly anisotropic propagation characteristics of bulk electrons that are confined in beamlike paths on the nanoscale
How can the charge densities on the Fermi surface be used?
the induced charge density oscillations on the nearby surface can be used for mapping buried defects and interfaces and some of their properties
the fermi surface that characterizes the electronic band structure of crystalline solids can be difficult to image experimentally in a way that reveals local variations. we show that fermi surfaces can be imaged in real space with a low-temperature scanning tunneling microscope when subsurface point scatterers are present: in this case, cobalt impurities under a copper surface. even the very simple fermi surface of copper causes strongly anisotropic propagation characteristics of bulk electrons that are confined in beamlike paths on the nanoscale. the induced charge density oscillations on the nearby surface can be used for mapping buried defects and interfaces and some of their properties.
What are the positive effects?
our global synthesis of 61 tundra warming experiments found significant mean positive effects of warming on canopy height, the maximum observed height of vascular growth forms, and the abundance of shrubs and dead material, and negative effects on the abundance of non-vascular cryptogams, both lichens and mosses
Effects of warming?
 however, the effects of warming were rarely consistent over space or time
What forecasts aggregate response?
as a result, the magnitudes of these mean-responses are adequate for forecasting the aggregate response of the tundra biome only insofar as the study sites and measurement years included are an accurate representation of the tundra biome as a whole over the timescale of anticipated warming
our global synthesis of 61 tundra warming experiments found significant mean positive effects of warming on canopy height, the maximum observed height of vascular growth forms, and the abundance of shrubs and dead material, and negative effects on the abundance of non-vascular cryptogams, both lichens and mosses. however, the effects of warming were rarely consistent over space or time. as a result, the magnitudes of these mean-responses are adequate for forecasting the aggregate response of the tundra biome only insofar as the study sites and measurement years included are an accurate representation of the tundra biome as a whole over the timescale of anticipated warming.
What does functional diversity mean?
concepts of functional diversity vary; according to martinez (1997), functional diversity can be quantified by determining the nature and extent to which functional groups are represented in an ecological system. functional diversity can also refer to the number of such groups in a community each of which contains one or more species (huston, 1994
Functional diversity has to do with groups of species and their classification?
in this sense, functional 'diversity' is simply a measure of group richness rather than an estimate of evenness or dominance based on the abundance of individuals per group (petchey gaston, 2002
But how are Functional and species diversity related?
as with species diversity, it would seem reasonable to derive a parallel measure of functional diversity based on the abundance of individuals per functional type but without species-weighting
concepts of functional diversity vary; according to martinez (1997), functional diversity can be quantified by determining the nature and extent to which functional groups are represented in an ecological system. functional diversity can also refer to the number of such groups in a community each of which contains one or more species (huston, 1994). whatever the nature of the functional groups, it is generally accepted they will be fewer than the species under study (mooney, 1996). in this sense, functional 'diversity' is simply a measure of group richness rather than an estimate of evenness or dominance based on the abundance of individuals per group (petchey gaston, 2002). as with species diversity, it would seem reasonable to derive a parallel measure of functional diversity based on the abundance of individuals per functional type but without species-weighting. while logically viable, this is likely to be limiting in practice as to record all individuals in a 50
In wich figure Yield predictions are summarized ?
yield predictions are summarized in fig. 2
What frame A and frame B shows ?
frame a shows predictions for the medium term (2020-2049) and frame b for the long term (2070-2099
Under how many climate scenarios in the Hardley III climate model ?
predictions are for changes in total production under four climate scenarios in the hadley iii climate model
for comparison, a linear model that uses the average growingseason temperature as an explanatory variable gives predicted impacts of  16% to  3% (b1) and  30% to  6% (a1fi) among the three crops. yield predictions are summarized in fig. 2. frame a shows predictions for the medium term (2020-2049) and frame b for the long term (2070-2099). predictions are for changes in total production under four climate scenarios in the hadley iii climate model. across all scenarios, model specifications, and crops, the aggregate impacts show marked declines, even though yields in some individual counties are projected to increase. the driving force behind these large and significant predicted impacts is the projected increase in frequency of extremely warm temperatures.
What does studies of climate change and energy expenditures details?
these surveys provide detailed data on energy expenditures and 10 10 consumption as well as demographics and building characteristics. the data include several thousand buildings distributed in random clusters across the continental us that are weighted to represent the true population of buildings
the five major residential fuels are?
data are available for the five major residential fuels: electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, liquid petroleum gas (lpg), and kerosene, as well as the four major commercial fuels: electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and district heat
warming reduces an increases what?
because warming reduces heating costs but increases cooling costs, we expect that energy has a nonlinear relationship with climate. in very cold places, the heating effects will dominate and, in hot places, the cooling effects will dominate. somewhere between is a temperate climate that minimizes both heating and cooling
the data come from earlier studies conducted of climate change and energy expenditures [26,28]. these studies relied on two surveys conducted by the energy information administration (eia).9 these surveys provide detailed data on energy expenditures and 10 10 consumption as well as demographics and building characteristics. the data include several thousand buildings distributed in random clusters across the continental us that are weighted to represent the true population of buildings. data are available for the five major residential fuels: electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, liquid petroleum gas (lpg), and kerosene, as well as the four major commercial fuels: electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and district heat. the data sets do not disaggregate energy uses. although space-conditioning energy is expected to be more sensitive to climate, other commercial and residential energy uses may also be affected. hence, the model is estimated for fuel portfolio choice and consumption across all energy uses. the original eia data sets measured only degree-days as a proxy for climate. however, degree-days are defined relative to an arbitrary standard temperature. further, it is not clear that i degrees for j days is equivalent to j degrees for i days. to analyze climate sensitivity with these data, the eia merged the energy data with monthly climate (30 year average) data on temperature and precipitation because warming reduces heating costs but increases cooling costs, we expect that energy has a nonlinear relationship with climate. in very cold places, the heating effects will dominate and, in hot places, the cooling effects will dominate. somewhere between is a temperate climate that minimizes both heating and cooling. climate, of course, is not unidimensional. in addition to annual mean temperatures, the distribution of temperatures across seasons may also be important (contrast san francisco and chicago). in this study, we will distinguish between winter and summer temperatures. we also explore the less important but still potentially significant role of precipitation. precipitation affects relative humidity, which in turn affects comfort. it is relatively easier to endure high and low temperatures with lower relative humidity, for example.10
what was the main concern of Huntington's determinism?
tracing of pattern of climate in history
what caused gave rise to Markham's "mainsprings of civilization" hypothesis?
the energy and vigour needed to develop and sustain civilisations was also related to these climatic optima
what was a  step for Huntington to emerge the field of genetic selection?
bring him in the 1920s under the influence of the american eugenics movement
huntington's determinism was centrally concerned with the tracing of pattern of climate in history, rather than with predicting the future fates of civilisations. the british politician and writer sydney markham, however, later developed and applied some of these determinist arguments in a different direction. in climate and the energy of nations published in 1942, markham argued not only that climate variations could explain the rise and fall of past civilisations, but could also explain and predict the changing geopolitical balance of power in his mid-twentieth century world. the dependence of contemporary social and economic factors such as trade, wealth creation and human mortality rates on climate offered markham a way of it was a short step from here to postulate that the energy and vigour needed to develop and sustain civilisations was also related to these climatic optima giving rise to his "mainsprings of civilisation" hypothesis. and for huntington a further short step into the emerging field of genetic selection was to bring him in the 1920s under the influence of the american eugenics movement.
What, according to IPCC, are the requirements for a country to assure a high adaptive capacity?
according to the ipcc, the requirements for a country to assure a high adaptive capacity include: a prosperous and stable economy, a high degree of access to technology options, well designed adaptation strategies, a system in place for the dissemination of climate change and adaptation information at all levels as well as a distribution of access to resources based on equity principles
Which continents represent the most vulnerable regions to the adverse effects of climate change?
on the basis of the tar findings, we notice that africa, and in particular subsaharan africa where most of ldcs are located, as well as asia (where are the remaining ldcs), represent the most vulnerable regions to the adverse effects of climate change
Name the factors that will play a key role in reducing least developed countries in facing adverse effects of climate change?
integrated approaches and the support of the international community will play a key role in reducing their vulnerability and thus facing adverse effects of climate change
according to the ipcc, the requirements for a country to assure a high adaptive capacity include: a prosperous and stable economy, a high degree of access to technology options, well designed adaptation strategies, a system in place for the dissemination of climate change and adaptation information at all levels as well as a distribution of access to resources based on equity principles. it is on the basis of this clearly stated principle that fao proposes a closer examination of gender roles in the climate change debate. a great part of developing countries does not meet the above requirements. this is the case, in particular, of the least developed countries (ldcs)23, characterized by a low adaptive capacity. on the basis of the tar findings, we notice that africa, and in particular subsaharan africa where most of ldcs are located, as well as asia (where are the remaining ldcs), represent the most vulnerable regions to the adverse effects of climate change. this vulnerability is strictly correlated to the low adaptive capacity of the populations, which in turn, linked to the extreme poverty and inequality that affects many of them. integrated approaches and the support of the international community will play a key role in reducing their vulnerability and thus facing adverse effects of climate change. if adaptation issues are "essentially about who will bear the cost of coping with climate change to the extent that it occurs"24 on their side, mitigation issues are about preventing or limiting the occurrence of climate change. mitigation focuses on tackling the very cause of climate change: the increase of ghgs by either reducing these emissions at source or by increasing sequestration of these gases by sinks or reservoirs. mitigation, in fact, considers primarily interventions acting on the root cause of the problem, that is to say the increase in ghgs emissions. options for tackling them include both their reductions at source as well as increasing their sequestration through sinks. examples of mitigation activities include the strengthening of energy efficiency of power plants, the correction of the current patterns of energy production and consumption and both the enhancement and the conservation of forests. the following table summarizes the main characteristics of these instruments for action.
What creates the difference between richer and poorer nations regarding climate change?
for one thing, the responsibility for historical and current emissions lies predominantly with the richer, more powerful nations, and the poor nations are badly situated to hold them accountable
What does the action on climate change create?
finally, action on climate change creates a moral risk for the developed nations. it embodies a recognition that there are international norms of ethics and responsibility, and reinforces the idea that international cooperation on issues involving such norms is both possible and necessary
What else would be the consequences of an initiative action on climate change
it may encourage attention to other moral defects of the current global system, such as global poverty, human rights violations and so on
the third feature of the climate change problem that exacerbates the basic global storm is that of skewed vulnerabilities. the climate change problem interacts in some unfortunate ways with the present global power structure. for one thing, the responsibility for historical and current emissions lies predominantly with the richer, more powerful nations, and the poor nations are badly situated to hold them accountable. for another, the limited evidence on regional impacts suggests that it is the poorer nations that are most vulnerable to the worst impacts of climate change.16 finally, action on climate change creates a moral risk for the developed nations. it embodies a recognition that there are international norms of ethics and responsibility, and reinforces the idea that international cooperation on issues involving such norms is both possible and necessary. hence, it may encourage attention to other moral defects of the current global system, such as global poverty, human rights violations and so on.17
How should your intuition be disciplined?
however, even their intuitions (including my own) should be disciplined by data
Can relying on persuasion be risky?
succumbing to the temptation of relying on persuasion can be risky
What does communication entail?
communication entails listening as well as speaking
the social science of decision making is behavioral decision research 10, 11 ). its studies have identified some relatively simple processes that emerge in many decisions 12 ). the box on p xxxx shows several such processes with some corollaries and implications for decision-aiding interventions. although these processes are simple, deriving behavioral predictions from them is not. the number of processes is large. complex, often subtle situational factors shape which behaviors are triggered, how they are expressed, and how they interact. as a result, sweeping generalizations about behavior are rarely justified. for example, one hears the claim that "people are ruled by their emotions, hence cannot be trusted to make important decisions wisely". however, the research (process 5 [box on p xxx]) finds that emotions play both positive and negative roles, varying by decision and emotion. experience should afford researchers some advantage in predicting these processes. however, even their intuitions (including my own) should be disciplined by data. only with such research can we know how reasonable people's choices are--and might be with clear, relevant non-persuasive communication. the investment in such research is small compared with that supporting persuasive communication--and both pale next to the investments in creating and disseminating persuasive communications. the temptation to move directly to persuasion is clear: at a time when action is urgently needed, research can be seen as slowing things down and diverting scarce resources. succumbing to the temptation of relying on persuasion can be risky. people exaggerate how widely their values are shared. as a result, people may mistakenly believe that others will find their messages as persuasive as they do. people exaggerate how widely their knowledge is shared. as a result, they may omit vital facts, assuming them to be common knowledge. people exaggerate how clearly they communicate. as a result, even when people know what to say, they may not realize that they are not getting through. research protects scientists and citizens against such imperfect intuitions. it does so by giving citizens a voice when they lack direct contact with scientists. if research allows people to speak their minds freely, it should increase their chances of acquiring the facts that they need and of being judged fairly. it can forestall the rush to judgment that turns scientists into advocates, when people want to make their own choices--and could do a reasonable job with a little help. communication entails listening as well as speaking. research provides a way to do that listening. to do the job, it should be able to hear concerns like:
For what does the models were constructed?
we constructed current condition niche models for chaparral and coastal sage scrub vegetation types and for each of the five shrub species associated with coastal sage scrub (table 1). we also constructed niche models for two primary host plants
How were the models created?
we used the abiotic variables: precip, tminjan, tmaxjul, trange, elev, slope, and aspect. we had sufficient spatially precise and distinct presence-only data to create calibration and validation datasets for both vegetation types and for five of the seven plant species (table 1). median validation hsi values averaged 0.595, indicating the models performed well at predicting occurrence of vegetation and plant species under current climate conditions
Why and how was the model-partition selected?
for two of the plant species encelia farinosa and malosma laurina ), we had insufficient data to independently evaluate models, and thus selected the model-partition based upon the highest median calibration hsi value
we constructed current condition niche models for chaparral and coastal sage scrub vegetation types and for each of the five shrub species associated with coastal sage scrub (table 1). we also constructed niche models for two primary host plants. we used the abiotic variables: precip, tminjan, tmaxjul, trange, elev, slope, and aspect. we had sufficient spatially precise and distinct presence-only data to create calibration and validation datasets for both vegetation types and for five of the seven plant species (table 1). median validation hsi values averaged 0.595, indicating the models performed well at predicting occurrence of vegetation and plant species under current climate conditions. for two of the plant species encelia farinosa and malosma laurina ), we had insufficient data to independently evaluate models, and thus selected the model-partition based upon the highest median calibration hsi value.
Which city faces water supply challenges?
cape town
What has been identified by the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry?
the greater cape town area has been identifi ed by the department of water affairs and forestry (dwaf) as the fi rst major urban region in south africa where the demand for water will exceed the total potential yield for the area if the economic and population growth scenarios are realized or the expected impact of projected climate change manifests itself
What does DWAF stand for?
department of water affairs and forestr
the supply of water services in cape town faces a number of challenges, including eradicating a backlog in basic services, reducing demand, meeting wastewater effl uent standards (thereby reducing impact on the water quality of urban rivers), managing assets and ensuring that development growth demands are met.(21) the greater cape town area has been identifi ed by the department of water affairs and forestry (dwaf) as the fi rst major urban region in south africa where the demand for water will exceed the total potential yield for the area if the economic and population growth scenarios are realized or the expected impact of projected climate change manifests itself.(22)
What is the conclusion?
a research agenda this paper has argued that a global sustainability issue such as climate change has the capacity to induce mnes to develop fsas that not only lead to environmental improvements as such, but may also affect firms' profitability, growth and survival
We have presented two frameworks to analyze?
we have presented two frameworks to analyze the nature and geography of such fsa development
Climate change?
climate change is an issue that affects a wide range of firms around the world, and that has implications beyond the 'pure' environmental dimensions, being linked to energy security and efficiency, and the fate of the planet more broadly. it has become a topic of societal, regulatory and corporate attention in recent years, and been brought to the fore as an 'inconvenient truth' that requires a concerted policy approach
conclusion: a research agenda this paper has argued that a global sustainability issue such as climate change has the capacity to induce mnes to develop fsas that not only lead to environmental improvements as such, but may also affect firms' profitability, growth and survival. we have presented two frameworks to analyze the nature and geography of such fsa development. subsequently, they have been applied to the case of climate change, using illustrative material from mnes in several global industries. climate change is an issue that affects a wide range of firms around the world, and that has implications beyond the 'pure' environmental dimensions, being linked to energy security and efficiency, and the fate of the planet more broadly. it has become a topic of societal, regulatory and corporate attention in recent years, and been brought to the fore as an 'inconvenient truth' that requires a concerted policy approach. regardless of one's position in this debate, climate change provides a clear opportunity to consider how (green) fsas (and fsa-csa configurations) can develop and change, in a context where there is considerable attention for this topic, not only by environmentalists and policymakers, but also investors and major multinationals who have become rather active. at the same time, there is also considerable uncertainty and complexity in view of the diversity of contexts and policy responses, which means that fsas developed in response to this 'moving target' will need constant rejuvenation. the climate change issue can thus give insight into dynamic capabilities, into how
Why modelled probabilities of occurrence be used?
we then projected these species models onto individual climates [representing the present and the three future scenarios (gcms) and time periods] for each iba and used the modelled probabilities of occurrence to generate current and potential future expected species inventories
How values are expressed?
to represent the variability inherent in our ensemble of future climate scenarios, values are expressed as the range across the three gcms
to forecast current and potential future avian community composition of individual ibas, we first derived climate envelope models for all 1608 species at 1  resolution across sub-saharan africa, using two modelling methodologies [species-climate response surfaces (crs) and generalized additive models (gam) - see climate envelope modelling approach below]. we then projected these species models onto individual climates [representing the present and the three future scenarios (gcms) and time periods] for each iba and used the modelled probabilities of occurrence to generate current and potential future expected species inventories. we carried out a rigorous validation of these current expected inventories by comparing them against observed inventories (i.e. species lists for individual ibas derived from long-term monitoring) for a subset of ibas, which indicated our approach is robust. we define species turnover for each iba as the sum of colonizers (species for which the iba becomes climatically suitable in the future) and emigrants (species for which the climate becomes unsuitable) divided by the total species number for which the iba is climatically suitable in the present plus the total species number for which the iba is climatically suitable in the future (calculated individually for the 2025, 2055 and 2085 time periods for each of the three gcms) (diamond 1969). we define species persistence for each iba as the proportion of species for which the climate is suitable in the present that also retain suitable climate space in the future. to represent the variability inherent in our ensemble of future climate scenarios, values are expressed as the range across the three gcms. we also use ensemble turnover and ensemble persistence where pertinent, defined
Among atmospheric scientists, is there consensus in projected air temperature increases and in rainfall trends for the next decades ?
there seems to exist consensus among atmospheric scientists for projected air temperatures to increase in the next decades but rainfall trends are less clear
What is one area where the outputs from atmospheric models differ hugely?
for some areas, such as west africa, the outputs from atmospheric models differ hugely
What is important due to the differences between model outputs?
because of the differences between model outputs, selection of the appropriate model for impact analyses in a given region is important
transitional regimes involve changes over a spectrum of time scales. there seems to exist consensus among atmospheric scientists for projected air temperatures to increase in the next decades but rainfall trends are less clear. for some areas, such as west africa, the outputs from atmospheric models differ hugely. because of the differences between model outputs, selection of the appropriate model for impact analyses in a given region is important. there is also an interesting issue of how the variability of mean atmospheric characteristics is related to extremes such as heavy rainfall and dry spells. there are lines of reasoning that suggest that extremes will increase in the
What is the simple way to avoid ODA budget cuts?
oda spent on activities with other prime objectives (such as emission reductions) is simply a way to avoid oda budget cuts as long as more poverty focused spending options do not exist
What promise an effective absorption of ODA resources?
it is easier to spend resources on activities in middle income countries with established government structures that promise an effective absorption of oda resources, than to painstakingly develop a poverty alleviation project in a sub-saharan ldc from scratch
What is doubly rewarding?
the dedication of oda funds to climate policy activities may be doubly rewarding
given the problems with aid disbursements and the low absorptive capacity of the most clearly poverty focused activities, it may be that oda spent on activities with other prime objectives (such as emission reductions) is simply a way to avoid oda budget cuts as long as more poverty focused spending options do not exist. developing new promising ideas is not only a very difficult and time consuming task, but also a task for which success cannot be guaranteed. it is easier to spend resources on activities in middle income countries with established government structures that promise an effective absorption of oda resources, than to painstakingly develop a poverty alleviation project in a sub-saharan ldc from scratch. climate policy activities have been able to provide quick flows of oda funds, and it was relatively easy to define indicators for success, e.g. for programs supporting cdm institution building. as some good examples can be given for their positive impact on development objectives, few observers will recognize the problem of conflicting priorities. coming back to a political-economic consideration of aid expenditure, this implies that development agencies and politicians responsible for this field do not need to fear too much criticism from the general public. on the contrary, the dedication of oda funds to climate policy activities may be doubly rewarding: the "development community" will appreciate the stabilization of the overall aid budget and the "climate community" will appreciate the effort from an environmental perspective. in fact, the outcome can be "sold" in two different policy fields.
Give an example of social construct
race is a social construct
What are two aspects of race?
race is a social construct and there are sort of two aspects of it. one is how do you identify yourself, which you can decide, but the other is, what does somebody say when they walk in the room and look at you (mixed group male
What is Mixed group male?
what does somebody say when they walk in the room and look at you (mixed group male
i think it's probably trivial because [religion], unlike foreign-born status, ethnicity, and race and gender, you can hide it. i mean you can use it, you can expose it selectively (majority male) unless i identify myself as a gay man, which until i tell you that, you don't know, i may have to stand and listen to somebody say things that are very derogatory about me and others that, in polite company, they wouldn't do for a person whose diversity is outwardly visible. (mixed group male) race is a social construct and there are sort of two aspects of it. one is how do you identify yourself, which you can decide, but the other is, what does somebody say when they walk in the room and look at you (mixed group male)
What region does this project address?
in line with ifad's 2000 country strategic opportunities paper (see above) this project addresses the hills and mountains in the west of nepal
What is poverty attributed to in these areas?
poverty in these areas is attributed firstly to "the extremely harsh terrain and climate", but also to, e.g., remoteness, lack of services, limited government presence, absence of donors, extremely limited savings and credit facilities, and poor links with markets due to the lack of infrastructure
How can poverty be combated in this area?
while the project contains no measures that are explicitly aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate risks, it is almost certain to address various aspects of these regions' vulnerability by enhancing agricultural opportunities and natural resource management, and by establishing rural microfinance opportunities
in line with ifad's 2000 country strategic opportunities paper (see above) this project addresses the hills and mountains in the west of nepal. poverty in these areas is attributed firstly to "the extremely harsh terrain and climate", but also to, e.g., remoteness, lack of services, limited government presence, absence of donors, extremely limited savings and credit facilities, and poor links with markets due to the lack of infrastructure. while the project contains no measures that are explicitly aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate risks, it is almost certain to address various aspects of these regions' vulnerability by enhancing agricultural opportunities and natural resource management, and by establishing rural microfinance opportunities. more specific attention to climate risks, and particularly to possibly changing climatic
Define the unique combinations of HELP3 input data?
merging of all the relevant meteorological and hydrogeologic information resulted in a total of over 47,000 unique combinations of help3 input data
Define Base Case climate scenario?
for the base case climate scenario, the help3 model was run daily over the 40 year study period from january 1960 to december 1999 for each of the unique combinations
How Areas classified?
areas classified as open water were ignored in the recharge analysis (approximately 3.4% of the total watershed area). the total computing time was approximately 37 h on a p4 1.8 mhz computer with 2gb of ram
merging of all the relevant meteorological and hydrogeologic information resulted in a total of over 47,000 unique combinations of help3 input data. for the base case climate scenario, the help3 model was run daily over the 40 year study period from january 1960 to december 1999 for each of the unique combinations. areas classified as open water were ignored in the recharge analysis (approximately 3.4% of the total watershed area). the total computing time was approximately 37 h on a p4 1.8 mhz computer with 2gb of ram. because each combination of input parameters is run independently, the approach is ideally suited for distributed computing, which will significantly reduce the total simulation time.
What are some important determinants to farmers adapting to changes in climate change awareness?
a multivariate discrete choice model is used to identify the determinants of farm-level adaptation strategies. results confirm that access to credit and extension and awareness of climate change are some of the important determinants of farm-level adaptation. an important policy message from these results is that enhanced access to credit, information (climatic and agronomic) as well as to markets (input and output) can significantly increase farm-level adaptation. government policies should support research and development on appropriate technologies to help farmers adapt to changes in climatic conditions
Where was this data collected from?
this study examines farmer adaptation strategies to climate change in southern africa based on a cross-section database of three countries (south africa, zambia and zimbabwe) collected as part of the global environment facility/world bank (gef/wb) climate change and african agriculture project
What are some areas policies need to advance and change in to better help the farmers adapt to climate conscious practices?
government policies should support research and development on appropriate technologies to help farmers adapt to changes in climatic conditions. examples of such policy measures include crop development, improving climate information forecasting, and promoting appropriate farm-level adaptation measures such as use of irrigation technologies. keywords: climate change, adaptation, southern africa
adaptation to climate change involves changes in agricultural management practices in response to changes in climate conditions. it often involves a combination of various individual responses at the farm-level and assumes that farmers have access to alternative practices and technologies available in the region. this study examines farmer adaptation strategies to climate change in southern africa based on a cross-section database of three countries (south africa, zambia and zimbabwe) collected as part of the global environment facility/world bank (gef/wb) climate change and african agriculture project. the study describes farmer perceptions to changes in long-term temperature and precipitation as well as various farm-level adaptation measures and barriers to adaptation at the farm household level. a multivariate discrete choice model is used to identify the determinants of farm-level adaptation strategies. results confirm that access to credit and extension and awareness of climate change are some of the important determinants of farm-level adaptation. an important policy message from these results is that enhanced access to credit, information (climatic and agronomic) as well as to markets (input and output) can significantly increase farm-level adaptation. government policies should support research and development on appropriate technologies to help farmers adapt to changes in climatic conditions. examples of such policy measures include crop development, improving climate information forecasting, and promoting appropriate farm-level adaptation measures such as use of irrigation technologies. keywords: climate change, adaptation, southern africa
What kind of people are greatly affected by disease worldwide?
poor people are greatly aff ected by disease worldwide
What diseases have perpetuated poverty in developing countries?
hiv/aids, tuberculosis, and malaria have perpetuated poverty in developing countries because of the cost of treatment and the loss of productivity. infectious and vector-borne diseases related to climate change will have their greatest eff ect in resource-poor settings through poor housing, poor water supplies and sanitation, and increased vulnerability
Why did HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria perpetuated poverty in developing countries?
hiv/aids, tuberculosis, and malaria have perpetuated poverty in developing countries because of the cost of treatment and the loss of productivity. infectious and vector-borne diseases related to climate change will have their greatest eff ect in resource-poor settings through poor housing, poor water supplies and sanitation, and increased vulnerability
poor people are greatly aff ected by disease worldwide. whether in a developed or developing country, health outcomes are worst for those on low incomes20 because they lack access to the health system. hiv/aids, tuberculosis, and malaria have perpetuated poverty in developing countries because of the cost of treatment and the loss of productivity. infectious and vector-borne diseases related to climate change will have their greatest eff ect in resource-poor settings through poor housing, poor water supplies and sanitation, and increased vulnerability. gender inequity is another important factor. in developing countries, women are among the most vulnerable to climate change; they not only account for a large proportion of the agricultural workforce but also have few alternative income opportunities. women manage households and care for family members, which limit their mobility and increase their vulnerability to natural disasters and other local sudden climate changes. eff orts to keep the adverse eff ects of climate change to a minimum should ensure that policies address issues of women's empowerment. individual assets that bring benefi ts to a woman's family and community, such as health and education, are easily attainable with good reproductive health. in particular, adequate birth spacing improves maternal and infant health and resilience, and contributes signifi cantly to women's ability to be economically productive. gender diff erences must be taken into account not just in terms of diff erential vulnerability but also as diff erential adaptive capacity. during a natural disaster, for example, women have a key role in protecting, managing, and recovering lost household resources, and often develop innovative strategies to address climate change.120 case studies in senegal, bangladesh, and ghana showed grassroots women's groups developing strategies to cope with issues related to energy and forestry, agriculture, water resources, and trade. women should be perceived as powerful contributors of change and should be fully integrated into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies at all levels. vulnerability will exist to both climate change and poverty, especially in developing countries.121 the vulnerability of poor people to climate change is manifested in three main ways: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. the world's poor nations are exposed to the eff ects of climate change due to their geographical location.122 also, low education, income, health, and other contextual factors reduce the adaptive capacity of developing countries. therefore, future vulnerability to the health eff ects of climate change depends on development and climate change itself. the challenge is to reduce not only poverty but also the diseases related to poverty, such as water-borne and vector-borne diseases, which require sustainable development with a functioning primary and secondary health system. this challenge should be underpinned by a strong public health infrastructure, incorporating
The study aims to explore what?
in this context, the current study aims to explore how the australian community perceives climate change impacts and the proposed mitigation measure. more specifically, we seek to investigate how much sacrifice the australian society is willing to make in monetary term to support a mitigation policy that is surrounded by uncertainty from three different sources, namely climate change scale, policy effectiveness and global co-operation
What study was carried out in Sydney?
a contingent valuation (cv) study was carried out in sydney, the state capital of new south wales, in november 2008
The households were asked for what?
further, respondents were asked if they had undertaken any initiative at the household level to contribute towards climate change mitigation efforts by reducing their consumption of carbon intensive goods, such as electricity and transportation. responses to these questions were analysed using multivariate probit regression techniques to identify the determinants of stated versus revealed preference for climate change mitigation
in this context, the current study aims to explore how the australian community perceives climate change impacts and the proposed mitigation measure. more specifically, we seek to investigate how much sacrifice the australian society is willing to make in monetary term to support a mitigation policy that is surrounded by uncertainty from three different sources, namely climate change scale, policy effectiveness and global co-operation. a contingent valuation (cv) study was carried out in sydney, the state capital of new south wales, in november 2008. during the survey, the sample households were asked for their preferences to bear extra household expenses per month to support the cprs. further, respondents were asked if they had undertaken any initiative at the household level to contribute towards climate change mitigation efforts by reducing their consumption of carbon intensive goods, such as electricity and transportation. responses to these questions were analysed using multivariate probit regression techniques to identify the determinants of stated versus revealed preference for climate change mitigation.
What are changing hydrological conditions, associated with regional climate warming, thought to?
changing hydrological conditions, associated with regional climate warming, are thought to underlie changes in the abundance and distribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates3and be one of the possible mechanisms for the increase in the occurrence of hab species4,5
What other factors implicated in HAB species increases can be included?
other factors implicated in hab species increases include ballast water transport, aquaculture development, transport of seed stock and eutrophication of coastal waters due to human activities1,2
What does (CPR) stands for?
continuous plankton recorder
changing hydrological conditions, associated with regional climate warming, are thought to underlie changes in the abundance and distribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates3and be one of the possible mechanisms for the increase in the occurrence of hab species4,5. other factors implicated in hab species increases include ballast water transport, aquaculture development, transport of seed stock and eutrophication of coastal waters due to human activities1,2. here we use data from the continuous plankton recorder (cpr) survey (1,241-2,253 samples per year since 1960), which is the longest multi-decadal plankton monitoring programme in the world6, to undertake the most comprehensive analysis so far of extended spatio-temporal patterns of abundance for dinoflagellates and diatoms, including key hab taxa, in the northeast atlantic region. the cpr does not sample very close 10 km) to the coast and hence will not reveal locally specific patterns of plankton change (for example, caused by local eutrophication, and local changes in circulation due to coastal development), but rather provides a view of broader-scale regional changes. as such, the cpr data reveal changes that are often caused by climate impacts operating over large areas6. integrated abundances of twelve diatom taxa and nine dinoflagellate taxa were examined in the northeast atlantic region (45*-60*n; 15*w-10*e;
What was the relationship between  the inter-annual variability in area burned to the summer rainfall?
for this period the inter-annual variability in area burned was significantly related to the summer rainfall, that is, in wet summers the area burned was lower that in dry summers. furthermore, summer rainfall was significantly cross-correlated with summer area burned for a time-lag of 2 years, suggesting that high rainfall may increase fuel loads that burn 2 years later
How were the two questions answered?
to answer these questions i analysed the meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) from 350 stations covering the eastern iberian peninsula (1950-2000), and the fire records for the same area (historical data, 1874-1968, and data from recent decades, 1968-2000
centro de estudios ambientales del mediterraneo (ceam), charles r. darwin 14, parc tecnologic, 46980 paterna, valencia, spain e-mail: juli@ceam.es fire is a dominant ecological factor in mediterranean ecosystems, and changes in the fire regime can have important consequences for the stability of our landscapes. in this framework i asked firstly, what is the trend in fire number and area burned in the eastern iberian peninsula, and then, to what extent is the inter-annual variability of fires determined by climatic factors. to answer these questions i analysed the meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) from 350 stations covering the eastern iberian peninsula (1950-2000), and the fire records for the same area (historical data, 1874-1968, and data from recent decades, 1968-2000). the results suggested a slight tendency towards decreasing summer rainfall and a clear pattern of increasing annual and summer temperatures (on average, annual temperatures increased 0.35*c per decade from 1950 to 2000). the analysis of fire records suggested a clear increase in the annual number of fires and area burned during the last century; however, in the last three decades the number of fires also increased but the area burned did not show a clear trend. for this period the inter-annual variability in area burned was significantly related to the summer rainfall, that is, in wet summers the area burned was lower that in dry summers. furthermore, summer rainfall was significantly cross-correlated with summer area burned for a time-lag of 2 years, suggesting that high rainfall may increase fuel loads that burn 2 years later.
What method is used to identify slowly evolving climate modes and faster evolving non-climate modes in this study?
the systematic strategy consists first of the identification of slowly evolving climate modes and faster evolving non-climate modes by use of an empirical orthogonal function (eof) decomposition
What are the two leading principal patterns of low-frequency variability?
this barotropic model climate has reasonable approximations of the arctic oscillation (ao) and pacific/north america (pna) teleconnections as its two leading principal patterns of low-frequency variability
Why is the low-order stochastic mode employed?
the systematic stochastic mode reduction strategy determines all correction terms and noises with minimal regression fitting of the variances and correlation times of the unresolved modes. these correction terms and noises account for the neglected interactions between the resolved climate modes and the unresolved non-climate modes
march 24, 2004 corresponding author address: dr. christian franzke, courant institute of mathematical sciences, new york university, 251 mercer street, new york, ny 10012, usa, e-mail: franzke@cims.nyu.edu this study applies a systematic strategy for stochastic modeling of atmospheric lowfrequency variability to a realistic barotropic model climate. this barotropic model climate has reasonable approximations of the arctic oscillation (ao) and pacific/north america (pna) teleconnections as its two leading principal patterns of low-frequency variability. the systematic strategy consists first of the identification of slowly evolving climate modes and faster evolving non-climate modes by use of an empirical orthogonal function (eof) decomposition. the low-order stochastic climate model predicts the evolution of these climate modes a priori without any regression fitting of the resolved modes. the systematic stochastic mode reduction strategy determines all correction terms and noises with minimal regression fitting of the variances and correlation times of the unresolved modes. these correction terms and noises account for the neglected interactions between the resolved climate modes and the unresolved non-climate modes. low-order stochastic models with only 4 resolved modes capture the statistics of the original barotropic model modes quite well. a detailed budget analysis establishes that the low-order stochastic models containing the principal two teleconnection patterns are dominated by linear dynamics and additive noise. the linear correction terms and the additive noise stem from the linear coupling between resolved and unresolved modes, and not from nonlinearities as assumed in previous studies.
What is deeply contested area?
climate science is a deeply contested area
Between whom the competition exists?
there is considerable competition among (and between) scientists, industry, policymakers and non-governmental organisations (ngos), each of whom is likely to be actively seeking to establish their particular perspectives on the issues as the one to be adopted
Who played crucial role in framing scientific dimensions?
the media play a crucial role in framing the scientific, economic, social and political dimensions through giving voice to some viewpoints while suppressing others, and legitimating certain truth-claims as reasonable and credible
climate science is a deeply contested area. there is considerable competition among (and between) scientists, industry, policymakers and non-governmental organisations (ngos), each of whom is likely to be actively seeking to establish their particular perspectives on the issues as the one to be adopted. since the mid-1990s, there has been mounting consensus among scientists about the role of human influence on the global climate. however, there is considerable disagreement over the nature of its effects, how best to tackle the problem and who needs to be involved. the media play a crucial role in framing the scientific, economic, social and political dimensions through giving voice to some viewpoints while suppressing others, and legitimating certain truth-claims as reasonable and credible. while media have been shown to play a key role in framing climate change, the effects are complex and dynamic and there is no straight forward relationship between information campaigns and behaviour change (dunwoody 2007; stamm et al. 2000). this article sets out to introduce and map the interdisciplinary field of research on the media and climate change, highlighting major conceptual frameworks and key findings thus far. ulrich beck's work, most notably
What do transportation industries account for?
approximately 4% of canada's gross domestic product
How many people do transportation industries employ?
more than 800 000 people
When commercial and private transportation are considered together, how much goes to pay for transportation?
more than $150 billion a year, or one in every seven dollars spent in canada
transportation industries account for approximately 4% of canada's gross domestic product, and employ more than 800 000 people.(2)however, these statistics vastly understate the importance of transportation in this country because of the fact that private cars and trucks account for a large proportion of both passenger and freight movements. when commercial and private transportation are considered together, more than $150 billion a year, or one in every seven dollars spent in canada, goes to pay for transportation.(2)overall, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of transportation to canadian life. the scale and use of canada's road, rail, water and air transportation systems are shown in table 1. it has been estimated that the road system alone has an asset value approaching $100 billion.(5)
How the data were analyzed?
using multiple regression including appropriate dummy codes for student gender, major type (gender-diverse vs. male-dominated), condition, and all twoand three-way interaction terms
What the separate analyses tested ?
the combined and separate effects of the two interventions (for specific dummy variables, see the online supplemental material
What was the first covariates were included?
where available, the preintervention assessment of each outcome was included in analyses, that is, in analyses of engineering attitudes, friendship groups, implicit norms, and gender identification
overview. data were analyzed using multiple regression including appropriate dummy codes for student gender, major type (gender-diverse vs. male-dominated), condition, and all twoand three-way interaction terms. separate analyses tested the combined and separate effects of the two interventions (for specific dummy variables, see the online supplemental material). covariates were included as follows: first, where available, the preintervention assessment of each outcome was included in analyses, that is, in analyses of engineering attitudes, friendship groups, implicit norms, and gender identification. this increases statistical power by reducing error variance and ensures that condition differences are not the product of baseline variability. second, the analysis of engineering gpa controlled for the mean gpa earned in students' major, as this varied widely, f (10, 181)  503.25, p  .001. this reduces error variance and ensures that condition differences were not due to any tendency for students to have enrolled in easier majors in one condition than in other conditions. third, analysis of the perceived importance of daily negative events controlled for the perceived importance of daily positive events, which ensures that effects reflect change in the perception of negative events relative to positive events not change in the perception of all events. in general, covariates were highly significant (see table s6 in the online supplemental materials). this study was not designed primarily to explore questions of statistical mediation; issues of sample size and statistical power limit the value of these tests in this study mackinnon, lockwood, hoffman, west, sheets, 2002 ). however, several exploratory analyses are reported in the online supplemental material. robustness of results in alternative analyses. in general, the results were robust to alternative ways of analyzing the data. first, in some cases, participants with intact postintervention scores had missing data on the baseline assessment of that measure, which as noted, was included as a covariate in analysis. to retain as many participants as possible, in primary analyses we replaced missing preintervention values with the gender  major mean cohen et al., 2009 ). in general, dropping participants with missing preintervention scores produces similar results. in only one case did this procedure meaningfully affect the results. the effect of affirmation training on the representation of female nonengineers in students' friendship groups was somewhat stronger without replacing missing preintervention values (see the following section). second, dropping the two nonbaseline covariates--namely, the mean gpa earned in students' major in analyses of first-year gpa and the perceived importance of daily positive events in analysis of the perceived importance of daily negative events--produced similar results (see the online supplemental material). third, analyses of implicit norms were robust to different ways of handling a few participants with high error rates on either the preor the postintervention assessment (see the online supplemental material).
Are the costs reported by the UNFCCC study for coastal adaptation reasonable and reliable?
the costs reported by the unfccc study for coastal adaptation appear reasonable as a snapshot cost for ipcc sea-level rise projections in 2030, and are more reliable than those for other sectors since they are based on a model assessment rather than top-down assumptions
What observation would lead to the adaptation costs being roughly doubled?
however, some post-2007 ipcc assessments suggest significantly higher observed and projected rises in sea levels than reported in the 2007 ipcc assessment. if these are assumed, then adaptation costs would be roughly doubled
Experience with the DIVA model since Nicholls (2007) suggests that UNFCCC estimations for residual damages are overly conservative and should be roughly doubled to how much money per year?
experience with the diva model since nicholls (2007) suggests that unfccc estimations for residual damages are overly conservative and should be roughly doubled (to $2-$3billion per year
the costs reported by the unfccc study for coastal adaptation appear reasonable as a snapshot cost for ipcc sea-level rise projections in 2030, and are more reliable than those for other sectors since they are based on a model assessment rather than top-down assumptions. however, some post-2007 ipcc assessments suggest significantly higher observed and projected rises in sea levels than reported in the 2007 ipcc assessment. if these are assumed, then adaptation costs would be roughly doubled. if account is taken of the need to protect coastal landscapes for amenity or ecological reasons, then the adaptation approach might change and protection costs could increase significantly in most cases. another deficiency of the unfccc study is the lack of consideration of other aspects of climate change such as more intense storms. no detailed estimates are available, but in the worst-case the necessary adaptation costs (and residual damage costs) could match those of adapting to sea-level rise. when combined with the uncertainties about sea-level rise, adaptation costs three times those reported in the unfccc study are not implausible. experience with the diva model since nicholls (2007) suggests that unfccc estimations for residual damages are overly conservative and should be roughly doubled (to $2-$3billion per year).
Why some forms of metadata must be used carefully?
some forms of metadata, such as city population statistics, must be used with care because they may not be representative of the immediate vicinity of the observing site
What did Gallo find?
gallo et al.28found that predominant land use and land cover (lulc) within 100 m of observing sites in the united states had more influence on diurnal temperature range than did lulc within 1000 or 10,000 m
What is urban LULC associated with?
urban lulc was associated with reduced diurnal temperature range
some forms of metadata, such as city population statistics, must be used with care because they may not be representative of the immediate vicinity of the observing site. thus, hansen et al.25did not find a close correspondence between population metadata and satellite-observed night-time surface lighting, which, if at high geographical resolution, is likely to be more representative of the site. gallo et al.28found that predominant land use and land cover (lulc) within 100 m of observing sites in the united states had more influence on diurnal temperature range than did lulc within 1000 or 10,000 m. as expected, urban lulc was associated with reduced diurnal temperature range. this accords with peterson's5
What is an example of compromising primary motivating factors for consumers?
for example, consumers may be reluctant to compromise on taste or enjoyment of food in order to reduce their emissions
What strategic factors do consumers tend to prioritize?
consumers tend to prioritize factors with an immediate and direct personal impact such as taste, price, health and food safety
Should the same communication strategies be used in all countries to close the consumers' awareness gap?
there are important differences between countries and consequently communication strategies to close the awareness gap should be tailored to national contexts
the livestock sector is a major emitter of ghgs and its contribution to climate change is set to grow as global demand for animal products rises. even with ambitious action to reduce the emissions intensity of livestock production, it is unlikely that global temperature rises can be kept below two degrees celsius in the absence of a radical shift in meat and dairy consumption. addressing livestock demand is also a highly cost-effective mitigation strategy as it affords more of the global carbon budget to other sectors where emissions reductions may be harder to achieve. lower consumption of livestock products in high-consuming countries could also yield significant environmental and societal co-benefits for health, global food security, water security and biodiversity. despite the clear case for action to tackle demand for meat and dairy products, there is a remarkable lack of policies, initiatives or campaigns to do so. the received wisdom among governments and campaign groups appears to be that trying to reduce consumption of animal products is at best too complex a challenge, and at worst risks backlash. however, this view remains untested and ignores the fact that government interventions and public campaigns in pursuit of societal benefits have successfully shifted consumer behaviour in the past, perhaps most prominently in the case of smoking. the lack of attention afforded to the issue by governments and environmental groups contributes to a significant lack of understanding about the links between livestock and climate change among publics - an awareness gap. this is a problem in itself, as the multinational survey undertaken for this study indicates that low awareness translates to a lack of willingness to change behaviour in order to reduce emissions. relative to other sectors, the awareness gap for livestock is particularly large. it also appears to be particularly inhibiting of change: for livestock, unawareness is significantly more likely to be associated with unwillingness to change behaviour than is the case for other sectors. closing the awareness gap is likely to be a precondition for voluntary behaviour change to reduce individual emissions, and for societal responsiveness to government interventions or public campaigns to encourage behaviour change. the survey found that consumers with a higher level of understanding of the links between livestock production and climate change are more likely to indicate willingness to reduce their meat and dairy consumption. the survey also revealed that those actors most trusted to inform consumers on the links between livestock and climate change are generally 'experts' and environmental groups, though there are important differences between countries and consequently communication strategies to close the awareness gap should be tailored to national contexts. however, the challenge is more complex than simply closing the awareness gap. strategies must be designed to enable willing consumers to change their behaviour. but consumers tend to prioritize factors with an immediate and direct personal impact such as taste, price, health and food safety. indirect societal concerns such as climate change tend to be secondary. this implies that strategies should avoid compromising primary motivating factors (for example, consumers may be reluctant to compromise on taste or enjoyment of food in order to reduce their emissions). strategies may be more likely to succeed if they include, or are complementary to, other primary motivating factors (for example, consumers may be more willing to reduce their individual contribution to climate change by reducing meat and dairy consumption if they can also realize health and livestock - climate change's forgotten sector
What was used in all analyses to avoid concerns about pseudoreplication that could arise if within-plot replicates were included?
site means
What was used to evaluate elevation effects on trace gas fluxes?
anova
How was data tested for normality?
shapiro-wilk statistic
differences between elevations and annual or seasonal means of dependent variables were evaluated using analysis of variance (anova) with elevation and/or year as main effects. site means were used in all analyses to avoid concerns about pseudoreplication that could arise if within-plot replicates were included. because trace gas fluxes were measured from the same permanent chamber bases at each sample date, repeated measures anova was used to evaluate elevation effects on these fluxes. repeated measures anova was also used for the measurements of microbial biomass and activity and ancillary variables. data were tested for normality using the shapiro-wilk statistic. when non-normal distributions were detected, elevation effects were evaluated using one-way nonparametric analysis of variance with the kruskal-wallis test. relationships between variables were explored with pearson product moment correlations. the statistical analysis system (sas 1988 was used for all analyses.
When did the issue arise?
however, the cell below raises an issue that arose during the 1997-98 el nino event
What might be a limit to a forecast?
even a skillful forecast may be limited by a range of societal constraints
How long has there been intensive research on El Nino events?
two decades of intensive physical science research have yielded increases in the ability to forecast aspects of el nino events
however, the cell below raises an issue that arose during the 1997-98 el nino event. as myriad forms of forecast information were advanced by a wide range of agents, a provider withholding a forecast was unlikely to leave any decision makers in a forecast-less state. thus, the provider may wish to disseminate, and even to compete to make its information heard above the din. further, in order to make its probabilistic statements better understood by all, it may wish to offer some training in forecast interpretation. 6. discussion this paper has presented a number of findings that are in keeping with both glantz's conceptual challenges raised in the 1970s and subsequent elaborations (e.g., stern and easterling, 1999). in short, even a skillful forecast may be limited by a range of societal constraints. since glantz made his points, two decades of intensive physical science research have yielded increases in the ability to forecast aspects of el nino events. in marked contrast stands the paucity of socioeconomic study of the effects of climate variability, or of the uses of climate forecasts in specific locations and sectors. attempting to address the stated need for real cases, we have based our comments upon observations of reactions in the peruvian fishery to the 1997-98 el nino event, and to the many forecasts of the event. we have argued two things in particular. first, an understanding of the constraints on forecast value and how they might be addressed is necessary for best dissemination choices. second, an
Do current developments in the car industry lead to transformation of FSAs?
yet, current developments in the car industry do suggest some bolder steps leading to upstream transformation of fsas, but with mixed success
Are fuel cells able to be commercialized with the hybrid having a breakthrough?
whereas hybrids are experiencing a breakthrough, fuel cells are still far away from being commercialized
What can MNEs accomplish with making climate-induced investments?
in making climate-induced investments mnes want to maintain their flexibility to safeguard their organizations against the uncertainties that exists about the future of international climate policy
current evidence on mnes' climate activities shows that most efforts are still evolutionary and particularly focus on downstream activities, which means mnes market existing products differently with a stronger focus on green attributes. nonetheless, this sometimes also entails investments in upstream production and sourcing activities to maintain fit with green fsas in sales and marketing. yet, current developments in the car industry do suggest some bolder steps leading to upstream transformation of fsas, but with mixed success. whereas hybrids are experiencing a breakthrough, fuel cells are still far away from being commercialized. an issue such as global climate change that has only recently started to attract business attention clearly does not immediately lead to radical changes such as a competence-destroying substitution of complete fsa portfolios of large mnes. this is probably still only reserved for small niche players. in making climate-induced investments mnes want to maintain their flexibility to safeguard their organizations against the uncertainties that exists about the future of international climate policy. moreover, the risk of making an irreversible green mistake is quite high, because it is still unclear for many industries which climate-friendly technology will prevail in coming years.
Which messages are more effective?
local messages are more effective than global messages
Who was the sample for the study?
our use of a larger sample consisting of canadian community members
Why are personal messages more effective than global messages?
personal relevance heightens one's motivation and ability to process the message. climate change conceptualized in local terms may be more tangible and more comprehensible
in partial support of the first hypothesis, that local messages are more effective than global messages, climate change engagement was greater among those who had received a local message, as opposed to receiving no message at all. however, engagement did not differ among those who had read a global message and those in the control group. not surprisingly, climate change- related attitudes are difficult to change with one simple message presentation. however, when climate change messages are employed, locality may improve individuals' receptiveness to the information. this is consistent with maio and haddock's (2007) view that personally relevant messages are more persuasive. they propose that personal relevance heightens one's motivation and ability to process the message. climate change conceptualized in local terms may be more tangible and more comprehensible. our results therefore also support personal relevance as a guideline for effective climate change communication and offers local framing as one potential means to this end (e.g., leiserowitz, 2007; nesta, 2008). an interesting extension of this research would be to further investigate the effectiveness of local messages within varying media, such as through testimonials, video, or images with greater scope and meaning such as those used in climate change visioning research (i.e., sheppard, 2005). however, this finding is incongruent with a recent study which found that geographically local or distant message frames did not differentially alter attitudes toward climate change mitigation (spence pidgeon, 2010). this difference may have occurred for a number of reasons, such as our use of a larger sample consisting of canadian community members (rather than university students in the united kingdom), or our use of different impacts (i.e., forest fires and mountain pine beetle), which could be more salient or certain than sea level rise. these differences suggest that more research is needed in this area.
What is another name for global warming?
anthropogenic climate change
What is global warming caused by?
by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases
Explain the process of global warming.
these gases trap the heat in our atmosphere by preventing radiation from escaping into space
anthropogenic climate change, or 'global warming', is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. these gases trap the heat in our atmosphere by preventing radiation from escaping into space. the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (co2), is emitted when fossil fuels, like coal and oil, are burned. since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel use has increased very quickly. due to these emissions, as well as changes in agriculture and land use, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have risen sharply. for instance, the concentration of co2 in the atmosphere has increased by around one-third, from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to 368 ppm in 2000 this is the highest level in at least the past 420 000 years and likely the past 20 million years (ipcc, 2001 c, p. 39 ). the atmosphere responds to the rising greenhouse gas concentrations with a higher average temperature. indeed, global mean surface temperatures have risen by approximately 0 6 degrees over the past century, with land areas warming faster than the oceans. the rise in northern hemisphere surface warming is greater than during any other
What is ACCRN?
the asian cities climate change resilience network (accrn
How to respond to particular situations?
he asian cities climate change resilience network (accrn), stresses the need for 'flexibility at an individual, organizational, and systemic level, with each level able to respond and contribute to each situation, and to respond to shifting and unpredictable circumstances' (rockefeller foundation, 2009: 2). this may be manifested
What lead to technologically driven approach?
this may be manifested, for example, as decentralised decision-making systems within organisations that have a role in determining the resilience of systems. in contrast, many adaptation projects and policies may be formulated with an assumption that they will progress logically, in a linear fashion. this may be led by a technologically driven approach
the asian cities climate change resilience network (accrn), stresses the need for 'flexibility at an individual, organizational, and systemic level, with each level able to respond and contribute to each situation, and to respond to shifting and unpredictable circumstances' (rockefeller foundation, 2009: 2). this may be manifested, for example, as decentralised decision-making systems within organisations that have a role in determining the resilience of systems. in contrast, many adaptation projects and policies may be formulated with an assumption that they will progress logically, in a linear fashion. this may be led by a technologically driven approach, but also because systems of project funding, management, monitoring and evaluation take a more linear approach and do not incentivise strategies for dealing with the high degree of uncertainty that exists in socio-ecological systems. some of the other characteristics discussed in this review offer some insight on how to accept and engage with uncertainty, including flexibility, redundancy and effective institutional structures. while this strain of analysis has contributed to a proliferation of debates on the development of systems that engage and accept change, there remains a need to translate this idea that originated in the ecological sciences into settings with complex social dimensions (cannon and mueller-mahn 2010). even though experiments in adaptive policy making, adaptive management and adaptive governance of socio-ecological systems are all working towards this end, this remains an emerging field of knowledge. 2.4 non-equilibrium system dynamics a non-equilibrium approach argues that restoring equilibrium may return a system to a state where it is vulnerable to the impact of the same perturbation again. holling (1973: 2) engaged with this characteristic in his analysis of the resilience of ecosystems, arguing that, '...an equilibrium centred view is essentially static and provides little insight into the transient behaviour of systems that are not near the equilibrium. natural, undisturbed systems are likely to be continually in a transient state'. while inherently linked to accepting 'uncertainty and change' (section 2.3), this characteristic adds another element. this demonstrates that rather than working towards making systems return to stable states after a disturbance, there needs to be a recognition that there are sets of relationships amongst a number of different system elements and each is organised around individual equilibriums (ibid). a disturbance may change the position of these components within a system, but the system will persist as long as the relationships between these components remain similar (ibid). this persistence of relationships then becomes a measure of the system's resilience. folke (2006: 253) also refers to this characteristic when he writes, 'old dominant perspectives have implicitly assumed a stable and infinitely resilient environment where resource flows could be controlled and nature would self-repair into equilibrium... the resilience perspective shifts policies from those that aspire to control change in systems assumed to be stable, to managing the capacity of socialecological systems to cope with, adapt to, and shape change.' similarly, an analysis of resilience in a part of the dutch coast constructed a picture of a similarly, an analysis of resilience in a part of the dutch coast constructed a picture of a coast that is ...continuously changing, so no original or equilibrium state can be identified. moreover, perturbations are not isolated events from which a coastal system may or may not recover, but are ever-present and occur at different temporal and spatial scales, (klein et. al 2003: 39) despite the dynamic nature of the adaptation issue, summarised as the problem of hitting a moving and uncertain target, adaptation projects often fail to acknowledge the dynamism that
What is the aim of the paper?
our aim in this paper is to report the main patterns across the sample rather than the detail of particular constructions or individual women's identity work
What were the three analytic concepts that guided the search for pattern?
the search for pattern was guided by three analytic concepts characteristic of critical discursive psychology - 'interpretative repertoire' (potter and wetherell, 1987; wetherell and potter, 1988), 'ideological dilemma' (billig et al. 1988) and 'subject position' (davies and harre, 1990; hollway, 1984; wetherell, in press
What are interpretative repertoires and how are they important?
interpretative repertoires are the recognisable routines of arguments, descriptions and evaluations found in people's talk often distinguished by familiar cliches, anecdotes and tropes. they are the building blocks through which people develop accounts and versions of significant events and through which they perform social life. interpretative repertoires consist of 'what everyone knows' about a topic
we worked with a corpus or data file derived from all the material produced in response to the questions above. we looked first for regularities and patterns in women's talk about singleness in general and second at the identity management relating to these. our aim in this paper is to report the main patterns across the sample rather than the detail of particular constructions or individual women's identity work. the search for pattern was guided by three analytic concepts characteristic of critical discursive psychology - 'interpretative repertoire' (potter and wetherell, 1987; wetherell and potter, 1988), 'ideological dilemma' (billig et al. 1988) and 'subject position' (davies and harre, 1990; hollway, 1984; wetherell, in press). (see edley, 2001, for a discussion of all three concepts.) interpretative repertoires are the recognisable routines of arguments, descriptions and evaluations found in people's talk often distinguished by familiar cliches, anecdotes and tropes. they are the building blocks through which people develop accounts and versions of significant events and through which they perform social life. interpretative repertoires consist of 'what everyone knows' about a topic. indeed the collectively shared social consensus behind a repertoire is often so established and familiar that only a fragment of the argumentative chain needs to be formulated in talk to form an adequate basis for the participants to jointly recognize the version of the world that is developing. a typical finding in research on interpretative repertoires (c.f. wetherell and potter, 1988) is that people's discourse tends to be highly variable and inconsistent since different repertoires construct different versions and evaluations of participants and events according to the rhetorical demands of the immediate context. this variability allows for ideological dilemmas to arise as people argue and puzzle over the competing threads and work the inconsistencies between them. in terms of subject positions, davies and harre argue that who we can be is dependent on the positions made available through talk, in interaction and conversations (1990, p. 46). the story lines of everyday conversations provide us with a position to speak from and they allow the positioning of others as characters with roles and rights.
What are warm colors?
warmer colors indicate stronger correlations; cooler colors indicate weaker correlations; a perfect model would show the same pattern as the observations. (a) ncep ocean data assimilation product
Describe the connections between the Central and Eastern Pacific regions?
b) coupled model forecast starting from february 1 initial condition. note that the correlations in the central and eastern pacific weaken starting in mid-march with significant departures from april onward. (c) ncep ocean data assimilation product. (d) coupled model forecast starting from august 1 initial condition. note that the model correlations for the central and eastern pacific remain consistently high
correlation coefficient between sst anomalies and upper-ocean heat content anomalies averaged between 2os and 2on as a function of month, with time increasing upward along the vertical axis for observations (left panels) and model results (right panels). warmer colors indicate stronger correlations; cooler colors indicate weaker correlations; a perfect model would show the same pattern as the observations. (a) ncep ocean data assimilation product. (b) coupled model forecast starting from february 1 initial condition. note that the correlations in the central and eastern pacific weaken starting in mid-march with significant departures from april onward. (c) ncep ocean data assimilation product. (d) coupled model forecast starting from august 1 initial condition. note that the model correlations for the central and eastern pacific remain consistently high.
Where the 100 crania from 10 populations were selected from?
the 100 crania from 10 populations were selected from collections housed in the natural history museum london and the american museum of natural history
Where the samples come from?
the samples come from five zones of diverse climatic stress (beals et al., 1984), and attempt to represent indigenous populations of each area, not dominantly affected by modern western lifestyle and health care
What is summarized in table 2?
table 2 summarizes population location, sample size, and the collections where the cranial material are housed, climate zone, temperature, and vapor pressure data
the 100 crania from 10 populations were selected from collections housed in the natural history museum london and the american museum of natural history. the samples come from five zones of diverse climatic stress (beals et al., 1984), and attempt to represent indigenous populations of each area, not dominantly affected by modern western lifestyle and health care. table 2 summarizes population location, sample size, and the collections where the cranial material are housed, climate zone, temperature, and vapor pressure data. mn measured the listed material from the natural history museum in london; fs measured the listed material from the american museum of natural history in new york. in an attempt to separate genetic relatedness from climatic type as a possible influence on nasal morphology, at least two populations from different continents were selected for each climate zone. selection of crania was based on the presence of all features where the landmarks were taken. only adult crania were included, based on fusion of the sphenooccipital synchondrosis. individuals with substantial in vivo tooth loss or signs of other dental pathologies were excluded, as such conditions may influence palatal morphology and thus the nasal floor. attempts to obtain samples with equal numbers of males and females were not successful. the number of available specimens per population was severely hampered by the difficulty to find skulls sufficiently preserved to measure all landmarks, and few have reliable historical gender information. we chose not to estimate sex from cranial morphology because established sex estimation methods are partly based on robustness, including the nasal area, and thus might result in biased samples and results. corey et al. (1998) and franciscus (1995) showed that indigenous men and women from the same geographical area show no significant difference in nasal morphology, and any major climate-related trend can be expected to affect both sexes following a similar pattern (hall, 2005), especially, since it is predominantly shape, rather than size that is analyzed here. climate data of temperature and vapor pressure (table 2) were obtained using the knmi climate explorer compiled by dr g. j. van oldenborgh (http:// climexp.knmi.nl; oldenborgh et al., 2005), retrieving monthly observations from the cru ts3 database at 0.5 degree, for the years 1901-2006. although this dataset likely does not fully reflect the climatic conditions of the
What produces an increase in energy?
altogether, the forcings produce an increase in temperature similar to that observed over the last 150 years (fig. 4
When does the temperature seem constant?
during the second part of the 19th century, the temperature stays nearly constant despite increases in atmospheric co2
What is the main trend in the 20th century?
in the 20th century, the main trend is an increase of temperature due to increasing atmospheric co2 and solar irradiance
altogether, the forcings produce an increase in temperature similar to that observed over the last 150 years (fig. 4). during the second part of the 19th century, the temperature stays nearly constant despite increases in atmospheric co2. here, the effect of increasing atmospheric co2 on temperature is counterbalanced by the biogeophysical effect of deforestation. therefore, deforestation forcing might be necessary to explain and reproduce changes in temperature during the second half of the 19th century. in the 20th century, the main trend is an increase of temperature due to increasing atmospheric co2 and solar irradiance. for a detailed discussion of the effects of these forcings on the climate of the last millennium using climber-2, see bauer et al (2003).
Is the Review's approach efficient?
the review's approach is inefficient
What happens to conventional capital after 50 years?
after 50 years, conventional capital is much reduced
What can the framework be used to analyse?
we can also use this framework to evaluate the review's very tight emissions reductions strategy
we can also use this framework to evaluate the we can also use this framework to evaluate the review's very tight emissions reductions strategy. consider undertaking the review's emissionscontrol strategy and using fiscal policies to keep consumption unchanged for 50 years - that is the " review -plus-deficit" strategy. it is certain that (using returns on capital that match estimated market returns) the review's strategy would leave future generations with less consumption than the optimumplus-deficit. indeed, by my calculations, the review's strategy would leave the future absolutely worse off - it would be pareto-deteriorating. the reason why the review's approach is inefficient is that it invests too much in lowyield abatement strategies too early. after 50 years, conventional capital is much reduced, while "climate capital" is only slightly increased. the efficient strategy has more investment in conventional capital at the beginning and can use those additional resources to invest heavily in climate capital later on.
Foster et al define radiation compulsion?
forster et al. [2007, p. 133] define radiative forcing as " the change in net irradiance at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values
Should stratospheric adjustment be ignored as tropical?
here, stratospheric adjustment is neglected as tropospheric aerosols do not affect stratospheric temperatures significantly
HotCom undefined Do tropical aerosols in the S have a picture?
for tropospheric aerosols in hadgem2 - es, forcing is diagnosed by figure 10. (top) time series of globally and annually averaged aerosol residence times (days) for transported aerosol species in hadgem2 - es cmip5 simulations. (bottom) time series of fraction of dissolved mass to total mass. lines are as in figure 7
forster et al. [2007, p. 133] define radiative forcing as " the change in net irradiance at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values. " here, stratospheric adjustment is neglected as tropospheric aerosols do not affect stratospheric temperatures significantly. for tropospheric aerosols in hadgem2 - es, forcing is diagnosed by figure 10. (top) time series of globally and annually averaged aerosol residence times (days) for transported aerosol species in hadgem2 - es cmip5 simulations. (bottom) time series of fraction of dissolved mass to total mass. lines are as in figure 7.
How is the multivariate probit technique used?
to analyze the determinants of adaptation measures
What does complementarities mean?
positive correlation
What does substitutabilities mean?
negative correlation
empirical model descriptive statistics (means) were used to characterize farmer perceptions on changes in long-term temperature and precipitation changes as well as various adaptation measures being used by farmers and barriers to adaptation. the multivariate probit technique is used to analyze the determinants of adaptation measures. the multivariate probit model simultaneously models the influence of the set of explanatory variables on each of the different adaptation measure while allowing the unobserved and unmeasured factors (error terms) to be freely correlated (lin et al. 2005; green 2003; golob and regan 2002). complementarities (positive correlation) and substitutabilities (negative correlation) between different options may be the source of the correlations between error terms (belderbos et al. 2004). another source of positive correlation is the existence of unobservable household-specific factors that affect choice of several adaptation options but are not easily measurable such as indigenous knowledge. the correlations are taken into account in the multivariate probit model. another approach would be to use a univariate technique such as probit analysis for discrete choice dependent variables to model each of the adaptation measures individually as functions of the common set of explanatory variables. the shortfall of this approach is that it is prone to biases caused by ignoring common factors that might be unobserved and unmeasured and affect the different adaptation measures. in addition, independent estimation of individual discrete choice models fails to take into account the relationships between adoptions of different adaptation measures. farmers might consider some combinations of adaptation measures as complementary and others as competing. by neglecting these common factors the univariate technique ignores potential correlations among the unobserved
What does the acronym WCRP stand for?
world climate research programme (wcrp
What does the acronym WGCM stand for?
working group on coupled modeling (wgcm
What does the accuracy of the geostrophic relationship in the extratropical atmosphere suggests?
the accuracy of the geostrophic relationship in the extratropical atmosphere suggests that there should be little difference between blocking measures derived with either variable
we now generalize this result to a number of other state-of-the-art climate models. simulation data are from the world climate research programme (wcrp) working group on coupled modeling (wgcm) coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (cmip3) multimodel dataset, which was used in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) fourth assessment report (ar4) (solomon et al. 2007). the data were obtained from the archive held by the program for climate modeling diagnosis and intercomparison (pcmdi) at the lawrence livermore national laboratory (llnl). the simulations used are the preindustrial control calculations, except for the max planck institute (mpi) echam5 model, for which twentieth-century simulations are used because of the availability of data. in general, daily or subdaily 500-hpa geopotential height data (the most usual variable for the calculation of blocking) are not available from the cmip3 archive. as a result, daily mean 500-hpa zonal wind speed is used instead. the accuracy of the geostrophic relationship in the extratropical atmosphere suggests that there should be little difference between blocking measures derived with either variable. nevertheless, climatological blocking frequency was diagnosed from 500-hpa geopotential height and zonal wind using data from the 40-yr european
Was the WHO's climate-health assessment conservative or far-reaching in its assumptions?
who also made model-based forecasts of the health risks from global climate change until 2030 (refs 56, 57). the study made generally conservative assumptions about climate- health relationships
How many approximate deaths has climate change contributed to since the 1970's?
the study indicates that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid-1970s could already be causing over 150,000 deaths
What major illnesses does the WHO study mention for developing countries only?
malaria and malnutrition that occur mainly in developing countries
in the most comprehensive, peer-reviewed and quantitative climate- health assessment to date, the world health organization (who) examined the global burden of disease already attributable to anthropogenic climate change up to the year 2000 (ref. 20); who also made model-based forecasts of the health risks from global climate change until 2030 (refs 56, 57). the study made generally conservative assumptions about climate- health relationships (for example, that socioeconomic conditions would prevent a climate-driven spread of vector-borne disease from endemic tropical regions to temperate regions), and health impacts were included only if quantitative models were available. an assessment over such a broad range of health impacts is by nature approximate, as there are significant uncertainties in all climate change-disease models. the study indicates that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid-1970s could already be causing over 150,000 deaths and approximately five million 'disability-adjusted life years' (dalys) per year through increasing incidences of diseases such as diarrhoea (temperature effects only), malaria and malnutrition that occur mainly in developing countries57(table 1, fig. 2). the who assessment emphasized that actions to adapt to a changing climate will require regional assessments of vulnerability to specific health risks, and interventions that are geographically and temporally targeted on highly susceptible populations.
What have age and gender shown to be highly significant determinants of?
age and gender (using males as the reference category) are shown to be highly significant determinants of migration
Is rainfall variability seen to have a significant impact upon migration?
rainfall variability (using dry conditions as the reference category) is not seen to have a significant impact upon migration
Are individuals more likely to migrate rurally in locations where rainfall is scarce or greater?
henry et al22 also found that individuals are more likely to migrate rurally in locations where rainfall is scarce than for locations where rainfall is greater
multivariate analysis the table below displays the outcomes of a multivariate logit model on the impact of variables age, gender, marital status, origin location and rainfall upon the likelihood of an individual undertaking migration within the emiub data. age and gender (using males as the reference category) are shown to be highly significant determinants of migration while marital status shows significance above the 0.05 level. while origin locations are also seen to be significant to the 0.05 level (using ouagadougou as the reference category), rainfall variability (using dry conditions as the reference category) is not seen to have a significant impact upon migration. however, this is to be expected from the analysis of henry et al22 who found that the sign of the relationship between migration and rainfall variability varied with the type of migration undertaken, yet remained statistically significant for both short and long distance migrations. in particular, henry et al22 showed that the significance of the relationship between rainfall variability and migration increased from p 0.20 when the analysis was not broken down into different types of migration to p 0.05 when the analysis considered the nature of migration as to rural, urban and international destinations. furthermore, the sign of the relationship was seen to vary with gender and type of migration. for example, the odds of a male migrating rurally are 60% higher if the rainfall conditions in the previous years were unfavourable than if they were normal; yet the reverse is true for migration to urban areas and foreign countries. this behaviour was hypothesised to be consistent with the idea that rainfall deficits and subsequent bad harvests act to limit ability to invest in longdistance and costly migration. henry et al22 also found that individuals are more likely to migrate rurally in locations where rainfall is scarce than for locations where rainfall is greater. the authors attribute this to a strategy to diversify incomes in a risky environment.
What is the first reason to believe a priori that adaptive management is a useful way to approach the problem of global climate change?
first, any policy approach to global warming must incorporate the interaction of human behavior with the atmosphere, and vice versa
What the interactions between mitigation and adaptation strategies will create?
mitigation and adaptation strategies themselves will interact with each other and with natural variables, creating a complicated dynamic of cause and effect where most important variables are both exogenous and endogenous
What is more suited to incorporating this concern with the human-environment nexus.
adaptive management
there are at least three reasons to believe a priori that adaptive management is a useful way to approach the problem of global climate change. first, any policy approach to global warming must incorporate the interaction of human behavior with the atmosphere, and vice versa. this point is obvious insofar as global warming is anthropogenic, but, more importantly, it is also true that mitigation and adaptation strategies themselves will interact with each other and with natural variables, creating a complicated dynamic of cause and effect where most important variables are both exogenous and endogenous. adaptive management is well suited to incorporating this concern with the human-environment nexus.
The average residence time of solids in the reactor is?
the mass of microorganisms attached to the support material or kept in their interstices degrades the substrate contained in the sewage flow and, although the biomass is released sporadically, the average residence time of solids in the reactor is usually above 20 days
Anaerobic filters operated in which direction?
the first investigations concerning anaerobic filters date from the end of the 1960s and ever since they have had a growing application in the treatment of different types of industrial and domestic effluents. these filters are usually operated with a vertical flow, upward or downward
What is downflow configuration?
in the downflow configuration, sewage is distributed in the upper part of the filter, above the support medium, and is collected in the lower part of the reactor
the systems with attached bacterial growth can be divided into fixed bed rotating bed and expanded bed reactors, as described below (adapted from stronach et al ., 1986). (a) fixed bed anaerobic reactors the more commonly known example of reactors with an attached bacterial growth, in a fixed bed, are the anaerobic filters these are characterised by the presence of a stationary packing material, in which the biological solids can attach to or be kept within the interstices. the mass of microorganisms attached to the support material or kept in their interstices degrades the substrate contained in the sewage flow and, although the biomass is released sporadically, the average residence time of solids in the reactor is usually above 20 days. the first investigations concerning anaerobic filters date from the end of the 1960s and ever since they have had a growing application in the treatment of different types of industrial and domestic effluents. these filters are usually operated with a vertical flow, upward or downward, with the upflow being more commonly used. in the upflow configuration, the liquid is introduced at the bottom, flows through a filter layer (support medium) and is discharged through the upper part (figure 26.8). in the downflow configuration, sewage is distributed in the upper part of the filter, above the support medium, and is collected in the lower part of the reactor. downflow reactors can be used with submerged or non-submerged support medium. effluent recirculation is more commonly practised in this second configuration (figure 26.9). there has been an improvement in the optimisation and efficiency of these systems with the increase of microbiological and biochemical knowledge, which
What does mortality displacement suggest?
that some heat-related deaths in already frail populations are only hastened by heat exposure
If most heat-related deaths were in the very elderly who had only a life expectancy in single years, how would the public health significance of heat related deaths be influenced?
the public health significance of heat-related deaths would be reduced
What would the accurate estimation of years of life lost due to high temperatures vary as a function of most likely?
the severity and duration of heat events
short-term mortality displacement or "harvesting" is another important issue. mortality displacement suggests that some heat-related deaths in already frail populations are only hastened by heat exposure (kovats and hajat 2008). if most heat-related deaths were in the very elderly who had only a life expectancy in single years, the public health significance of heat-related deaths would be reduced. few studies have investigated the degree of mortality displacement for heat-related deaths (hajat et al. 2005; toulemon and barbieri 2008). the accurate estimation of years of life lost due to high temperatures remains unknown, and would likely vary as a function of the severity and duration of heat events (kinney et al. 2008).
How many reservoirs in the UK apply to the Reservoirs Act of 1975?
the reservoirs act 1975 applies to all reservoirs holding or capable of holding more than 25 000 cubic metres of water. there are over 2500 such reservoirs in the uk
How often are owners of reservoirs required by law to have their reservoir inspected by a civil engineer?
owners of dams covered by the act are obliged by law to have them inspected every 10 years by a civil engineer from a special panel
Could climate change lead to an increased or decreased risk of failure for reservoirs or dams?
climate change could well lead to an increased risk of failure of british dams, some of which are as much as 300 years old
there are also concerns about the secrecy surrounding dam break inundation maps, and the lack of preparedness of the emergency services in dealing with a catastrophic failure. the information in the public domain is enough to illustrate the scale of the issue. 23 the reservoirs act 1975 applies to all reservoirs holding or capable of holding more than 25 000 cubic metres of water. there are over 2500 such reservoirs in the uk, of which 530 are large enough to be included in the world register of large dams. owners of dams covered by the act are obliged by law to have them inspected every 10 years by a civil engineer from a special panel, but the law does not specify the details of the inspection or that the results should be published. in practice, the thoroughness of the inspection depends almost entirely on how much the dam owner is prepared to pay, and the author is not aware of any case where the results have been published, or even given to local authority emergency planning officers or the emergency services. at the time of writing, dam owners in england and wales also refuse to issue dam break flood inundation maps. this could mean, and indeed this has happened, that planning officers for the local authority might grant planning permission for new housing developments within the area that would be flooded if the dam failed, simply because they did not know that the area was within the danger zone. dam owners in scotland are obliged to make such maps available to emergency planners, fire and rescue services and the police, so that evacuation plans can be made. by contrast, in france, everyone living in areas at risk from dam break is fully aware of the fact, and these areas are subject to frequent evacuation exercises. informal comments from engineers would seem to indicate that they believe the british are more likely than the french to panic if they were given such information. climate change could well lead to an increased risk of failure of british dams, some of which are as much as 300 years old. failure can be caused by many factors, for example climate change, could lead to subsidence of the dam foundations, landslip into the reservoir or overtopping due to heavy rainfall. around half of the 2500 large uk dams have earth embankments, most of them constructed before heavy soil compaction equipment was available. little is known about the content of such embankments, especially the core, or the extent of internal settlement or disturbance, for example from rabbit burrows. droughts could lead to cracking of the embankment wall, and climate change will lead to more droughts in the summer, followed by more rain in the autumn. this could impose additional loads, which were not considered when the reservoir was planned. there could also be additional loadings from increased snowfall in upland areas, followed by rapid snowmelt due to rainfall. higher windspeeds over the reservoir surface could cause more frequent overtopping, leading to erosion of earth embankments unless suitably protected. other possible causes of failure include vandalism of valves, pipe work or controls, terrorism or aircraft crashes. many dams are in or near urban areas, for example there is a large reservoir in brent in london which is very close to housing and aircraft flight paths. most uk dams are over 100 years old. a detailed record is kept of defects in dams but this is not published. the reasons for the secrecy surrounding the condition of the nation's dams is not clear, but prudent insurance underwriters are always inclined to assume the worst when information is withheld. the record of dam safety in the uk has been excellent since 1925, but climate change fears might cause some underwriters to reassess the situation. it would seem quite likely that there are people living and working within the danger zone of large dams in the uk. in the usa, where information is more readily available, more than 2000 communities have been identified as being at risk from dams that are believed to be unsafe. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Define regional atmospheric climate model?
the regional atmospheric climate model racmo2.1/ ant van meijgaard et al. 2008] combines the dynamics of hirlam unden et al. 2002] with the physical processes as described in the model of the european centre for mediumrange forecasts (ecmwf) (cycle cy23r4 white 2001
Define topographic complexity?
to be able to capture the topographic complexity in some parts of the ais, racmo2.1/ant has a horizontal grid spacing of 27 km and 40 vertical levels
How it is  forced by ERAInterim?
it is forced by erainterim at its lateral and ocean boundaries (jan. 1979 - dec. 2010), but is allowed to evolve freely in the domain interior. the model has been adapted to simulate conditions on the large ice sheets reijmer et al. 2005
the regional atmospheric climate model racmo2.1/ ant van meijgaard et al. 2008] combines the dynamics of hirlam unden et al. 2002] with the physical processes as described in the model of the european centre for mediumrange forecasts (ecmwf) (cycle cy23r4 white 2001]). to be able to capture the topographic complexity in some parts of the ais, racmo2.1/ant has a horizontal grid spacing of 27 km and 40 vertical levels. it is forced by erainterim at its lateral and ocean boundaries (jan. 1979 - dec. 2010), but is allowed to evolve freely in the domain interior. the model has been adapted to simulate conditions on the large ice sheets reijmer et al. 2005]. a multilayer
Who supported the Combating Global Warming study?
produced with financial support from the governments of the netherlands and norway
Who is the Global Director for greenhouse gas emissions trading?
the intimate connections between business and the un is further evidenced in that the former head of unctad's emissions trading division, frank joshua, is now the global director for greenhouse gas emissions trading at arthur andersen
When the formal proposals for trading emissions were made?
formal proposals for trading emissions, however, were not made until the mid1990s
climate fraud and carbon colonialism 9 a corporate lobby group dedicated to promoting emissions trading. these activities led to a may, 1992, report entitled "combating global warming: study on a global system of tradable carbon emission entitlements," produced with financial support from the governments of the netherlands and norway. the intimate connections between business and the un is further evidenced in that the former head of unctad's emissions trading division, frank joshua, is now the global director for greenhouse gas emissions trading at arthur andersen. formal proposals for trading emissions, however, were not made until the mid1990s. by then unctad's research on greenhouse gas trading was well advanced; it never pursued research on other alternatives, or even on other market-based instruments such as pollution taxes. the neo-liberal bias of the un in this instance seems less a question of succumbing to corporate pressure than of an organizational culture oriented towards corporate-friendly solutions as a matter of course.
What does the political scientist Haas argued about?
a political scientist, haas positioned epistemic communities against a range of other policy network theories, which he argued gave too much attention to power in their explanations of (international) policy change, and not enough to the role of knowledge and expertise
Why the presence of bias does not compromise the definition of epistemic communities?
although there is a bias in the epistemic communities literature towards analysis of scientific communities, the definition of epistemic communities is sufficiently broad to encompass a range of types of professional expertise and knowledge, including accountancy
What is most important in the present analysis?
what is most important to our analysis here is haas's ideas about the role of knowledge - how knowledge and expertise create personal connections and how these in turn are applied to frame and solve particular policy problems: in this sense it applies well to accountants and the work they are doing in response to climate change, because of their highly specialised knowledge
a political scientist, haas positioned epistemic communities against a range of other policy network theories, which he argued gave too much attention to power in their explanations of (international) policy change, and not enough to the role of knowledge and expertise. although there is a bias in the epistemic communities literature towards analysis of scientific communities, the definition of epistemic communities is sufficiently broad to encompass a range of types of professional expertise and knowledge, including accountancy. indeed, there are some examples of the epistemic community concept being applied to financial policy making (see for example the paper by verdun (1999) on european monetary union, which positions central bankers as an epistemic community). what is most important to our analysis here is haas's ideas about the role of knowledge - how knowledge and expertise create personal connections and how these in turn are applied to frame and solve particular policy problems: in this sense it applies well to accountants and the work they are doing in response to climate change, because of their highly specialised knowledge. further, epistemic 13 13 communities are seen as most important in conditions of uncertainty; and with climate change being a relatively new issue for accountants, and with its implications for the professions still unclear, the concept appears likely to have traction.
What areas accounts for the majority of O3-induced mortalities?
asian continent
How many years of lost life can be attributed to O3?
6.3 million +- 3.0 million years of lost life
What types of air pollution will be controlled?
nox and vocs
on the basis of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality rates and through use of a global atmospheric chemical transport model, anthropogenic [o3] was estimated to result in approximately 0.7 million +- 0.3 million respiratory mortalities annually worldwide, corresponding to 6.3 million +- 3.0 million years of lost life (8). more than 75% of o3-induced mortalities were estimated to occur in the densely populated and heavily polluted asian continent. o3-induced mortalities were greatest in highly populated areas, but also occurred in rural areas affected by the increased regional or global background of air pollution since preindustrial times. stringent controls of both nox and vocs will o3 be effectively controlled in both urban city cores and downwind suburban and rural areas (48).
What is impressive about the UK's target record?
on the un fccc basis, the uk's record is impressive, having already surpassed the kyoto target of a 12.5 per cent reduction by 2008-12
What crude estimate has been shown to have happened between 1990 and 2003?
a crude estimate that emissions between 1990 and 2003 have increased by 19 per cent
Is the polluter the producer?
the polluter is the consumer, not the producer
a country (for example, the uk) could have a relatively low production of greenhouse gases, but at the same time have a high consumption level. it could produce low carbonintensive goods (such as services, rather than manufacturing), but import and consume high carbon-intensive goods (steel, aluminium, glass, and chemicals). in the uk's case, the shift of high carbon-intensive production to china, india, and other developing countries has had this effect. furthermore, it could achieve a given kyoto target by moving energy-intensive industries offshore--without making any noticeable difference to climate change. some numbers indicate the scale of these effects. on the un fccc basis, the uk's record is impressive, having already surpassed the kyoto target of a 12.5 per cent reduction by 2008-12. just adding back in aviation and overseas activities of uk residents puts a dent in this performance--emissions have fallen only 11.9 per cent. even this adjustment puts the uk's meeting of the kyoto target in jeopardy. but taking all greenhouse gases embedded in imports and subtracting greenhouse gases embedded in exports, helm et al (2007) provide a crude estimate that emissions between 1990 and 2003 have increased by 19 per cent.16consider the impact on kyoto, and its two claimed advantages: that it commits the developed countries to reducing emissions; and that it provides a framework going forward. it is immediately apparent that it fails on both counts. industrialized countries can increase (and have been increasing) their carbon consumption (probably significantly), and developing countries are unlikely to agree that the industrialized countries' responsibilities are exhausted by addressing their current and future carbon production. as china has pointed out, although it might produce high emissions, these are on behalf of consumers in developed countries, and therefore the consumers should pay for the relevant reductions. the polluter is the consumer, not the producer.17
Will there be more drought periods in the future?
the timing and magnitude of rainfall events are expected to change in future decades, resulting in longer drought periods and larger rainfall events
Does intensified rainfall patterns change the tolerance level?
tolerance to drying-rewetting increased with exposure to intensified rainfall patterns
What are some keywords used?
birch effect, drying-rewetting, historical legacy, microbial life history
the timing and magnitude of rainfall events are expected to change in future decades, resulting in longer drought periods and larger rainfall events. although microbial community composition and function are both sensitive to changes in rainfall, it is unclear whether this is because taxa adopt strategies that maximise fitness under new regimes. we assessed whether bacteria exhibited phylogenetically conserved ecological strategies in response to drying-rewetting, and whether these strategies were altered by historical exposure to experimentally intensified rainfall patterns. by clustering relative abundance patterns, we identified three discrete ecological strategies and found that tolerance to drying-rewetting increased with exposure to intensified rainfall patterns. changes in strategy were primarily due to changes in community composition, but also to strategy shifts within taxa. these moisture regime-selected ecological strategies may be predictable from disturbance history, and are likely to be linked to traits that influence the functional potential of microbial communities. keywords birch effect, drying-rewetting, historical legacy, microbial life history, moisture niche, moisture stress, precipitation manipulation, rainfall pulses, rainfall timing, tallgrass prairie.
Which index monitors and creates awareness of the dangers of climate change?
awareness of the danger is growing and the climate change performance index (ccpi) keeps on working to bring it forward
Why CCPI is an important tool to address climate change?
to demonstrate existing measures more accurately and to encourage steps towards effective climate policy, the ccpi methodology was evaluated in 2012 and improvements have since been made
Who are mainly  fighting for the implementation of the climate policy?
experts are mainly representatives of ngos working within their respective countries
wendel trio (director of can-europe) klaus milke (chairman of the board, germanwatch) dear reader, our world is characterized by fast moving geopolitical and natural changes and the scenarios drawn by climate change specialists are alarming. if we want to avoid dangerous climate change and its ample consequences for creatures all over the world, it is necessary to take action right now. awareness of the danger is growing and the climate change performance index (ccpi) keeps on working to bring it forward. since 2005, the ccpi has been contributing to a clearer understanding of national and international climate policy. the various initial positions, interests, and strategies of the numerous countries make it hard to distinguish their strengths and weaknesses. the ccpi is an important tool to address this. to demonstrate existing measures more accurately and to encourage steps towards effective climate policy, the ccpi methodology was evaluated in 2012 and improvements have since been made. the integration of data on emissions from deforestation was one of the major steps in this process, made possible due to the data provided by the fao global forest resource assessment 2011. alongside energy-based emissions, deforestation is another important source of anthropogenic co2. by including emissions from deforestation, we can now present a more complete view of manmade impacts on the world's climate. the following publication is issued by germanwatch and climate action network europe. however, only with the help of over 250 energy and climate experts from all over the world, we are able to include a review of each country's national and international policies, with respect to their efforts to avoid climate change. we greatly appreciate these experts for taking the time and effort to contribute with their knowledge. experts are mainly representatives of ngos working within their respective countries, fighting for the implementation of the climate policy that we so desperately need. best regards, 3
By what amount has the production of rice and wheat increased?
the production of rice and wheat increased from about 10 million tonnes/metric tons (10mt) in the early 1970s to almost 30mt by 2001
What has been the cause of significant progress in the achievement of food self-sufficiency in Bangladesh?
significant progress has been made in the sector since the 1970s, in large part due to the rapid expansion of surface and groundwater irrigation and the of new high-yielding crop varieties
What challenges does  Bangladesh face now?
the challenge now for bangladesh is to enhance productivity, especially as demands for food increase with the growing population (1.3 per cent growth rate) and improved incomes. moreover, overuse, degradation and changes in resource quality (e.g. salinity) will place additional pressures on already constrained available land and water resources
the achievement of food self-sufficiency remains a key development agenda for the country. significant progress has been made in the sector since the 1970s, in large part due to the rapid expansion of surface and groundwater irrigation and the of new high-yielding crop varieties. the production of rice and wheat increased from about 10 million tonnes/metric tons (10mt) in the early 1970s to almost 30mt by 2001. the challenge now for bangladesh is to enhance productivity, especially as demands for food increase with the growing population (1.3 per cent growth rate) and improved incomes. moreover, overuse, degradation and changes in resource quality (e.g. salinity) will place additional pressures on already constrained available land and water resources.
What was a main cause for the delay of Project completion?
heavy monsoon rains in nepal usually commence in june and end in september, flooding the plains and causing landslides and land erosion, disrupting daily life and transportation, and making it impossible for contractors to erect transmission and distribution lines
What type of damage did the monsoon cause?
causing landslides and land erosion
What is the typical monsoon season of Nepal?
nepal usually commence in june and end in september
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 62 62 this project was designed well before climate change featured prominently on the global agenda. however, it is interesting to assess to what extent completed projects in sectors currently vulnerable to climate risks have suffered from natural hazards during implementation. the project completion report of this seventh power project provides and interesting example. the project suffered from severe delays (three extensions were needed to complete the project). one of the factors responsible for this delay were heavy rains: "heavy monsoon rains in nepal usually commence in june and end in september, flooding the plains and causing landslides and land erosion, disrupting daily life and transportation, and making it impossible for contractors to erect transmission and distribution lines (...) the impact of the monsoon on project implementation was not considered adequately when planning the construction works". hence, climatic factors strongly influenced project performance, not just in terms of its long-term benefits, but already during implementation. note that none of the current projects that were reviewed contain descriptions of monsoon rains similar to the one in this ex-post evaluation. d.2.14 forestry sector program, adb37
According to who; a vision consists of having a clear understanding of where the company or group is going, painting an interesting picture of the future of the group, and inspiring others with the leader's plans for the future?
according to podsakoff et al. (1990), articulating a vision consists of having a clear understanding of where the company or group is going, painting an interesting picture of the future of the group, and inspiring others with the leader's plans for the future
What is an important determinant of climate for innovation?
organizational culture is an important determinant of climate for innovation
What is associated with strong and visionary leadership and supportive cultures?
accepted wisdom that creativity, as a facet of innovation, is associated with strong and visionary leadership and supportive cultures
transformational leaders have long been acknowledged as significant contributors to organizational performance and culture (hater bass, 1988; howell avolio, 1993; yammarino, spangler, bass, 1993). our study findings enhance existing knowledge by revealing that vision, setting high performance expectations, and caring for fellow workers through individual support are powerful forces in the culture-leadership relationship. according to podsakoff et al. (1990), articulating a vision consists of having a clear understanding of where the company or group is going, painting an interesting picture of the future of the group, and inspiring others with the leader's plans for the future. these leadership behaviors are far reaching and ambitious, and they demand an enormous amount of time and energy from leaders and followers. combined with the capacity to consider others' feelings and recognize others'personal needs, both indicators of providing individual support, leadership vision and setting high performance expectations are significant forces to be reckoned with. we have argued that organizational culture is an important determinant of climate for innovation. our study shows the extent to which a competitive, performance-oriented organizational culture is positively associated with climate for organizational innovation, which in this case was measured by the adequacy of its resources (i.e., personnel, time) and the degree to which organizational change was encouraged, referred to as support for innovation (this dimension also includes support for and encouragement of individual creativity). our findings support the accepted wisdom that creativity, as a facet of innovation, is associated with strong and visionary leadership and supportive cultures, ceteris paribus (e.g., scott bruce, 1994; unsworth, wall, carter, 2005). in particular, the greater the need for change, the more likely it is that creativity and innovation will occur (angle van de ven, 1989). similarly, supportive leadership and organizational cultures have been
How can HBV-Had and HBV-ERA be described when compared to HBV-Met model?
more robust
Where is the magnitude of uncertainties higher?
in the river basins where discharge is dependent on the preceding winter precipitation (i.e. gilgit and astore river basins) compared to the river basin which discharge is driven by energy inputs (i.e. hunza river basin
Why is the magnitude of uncertainties higher in the river basins where discharge is dependent on the preceding winter precipitation (i.e. Gilgit and Astore river basins) compared to the river basin which discharge is driven by energy inputs (i.e. Hunza river basin)?
this is may be because of the fact 5 that the bias correction technique applied here has a larger impact on the precipitation series compared to the temperature series that resulted in smaller uncertainty in the simulated discharge of the hunza river basin
hbv-had and hbv-era are more robust compared to hbv-met model. the patterns of uncertainties are similar in the three hbv models. the magnitude of uncertainties is higher in the river basins where discharge is dependent on the preceding winter precipitation (i.e. gilgit and astore river basins) compared to the river basin which discharge is driven by energy inputs (i.e. hunza river basin). this is may be because of the fact 5 that the bias correction technique applied here has a larger impact on the precipitation series compared to the temperature series that resulted in smaller uncertainty in the simulated discharge of the hunza river basin. in terms of both robustness and uncertainty ranges the hbv models calibrated with precis output performed better compared to hbv-met. therefore, it is recommended that in data sparse regions as 10 the hkh region data from regional climate models may be used as input in hydrological models for climate scenarios studies.
What are some factors affecting the solar absorptance of a roof?
4) the solar absorptance of a roof will change with time due to dust and aging
Were there houses in Florida that found a measurable difference in space cooling requirements?
for example, parker et al. reported that the space cooling requirements, after application of reflective roof coatings on nine florida homes, decreased by 19% and the staff of a florida school found that interior comfort noticeably improved after the grey bitumen roof surface was painted white
Can roof heat flow be affected by the surface covering?
suehrcke on the other hand, using a numerical simulation of a building, suggested that the peak values of heat flow from a roof could reduce by as much as 60% when a white surface replaces a corroded galvanised one
for locations that require both heating and cooling the benefits from a light roof colour are not always positive and the downward and upward heat flow cases require separate treatment. (2) the heat flow due to solar absorption on the roof surface combines with that due to air temperature differences between the outside and inside. both heat flows need to be evaluated in order to judge the relative effect of roof colour. (3) the heat flows due to solar absorption and outside to inside air temperature difference are variable and influenced by the thermal mass of the roof. (4) the solar absorptance of a roof will change with time due to dust and aging. however, restricting the analysis to locations where there are no heating requirements (cooling only) simplifies the problem. therefore this paper only deals with the downward heat transfer case, as it is typical, for example, in northern parts of australia (zone 1 in the building code of australia 2006 ). an effective r value for cooling that takes into account the solar absorption (roof colour) is derived. 2. review of some existing literature the benefits of light roof colour have been noted many times, particularly in locations where the sun is almost directly overhead and for single story buildings. for example, parker et al. reported that the space cooling requirements, after application of reflective roof coatings on nine florida homes, decreased by 19% and the staff of a florida school found that interior comfort noticeably improved after the grey bitumen roof surface was painted white. suehrcke on the other hand, using a numerical simulation of a building, suggested that the peak values of heat flow from a roof could reduce by as much as 60% when a white surface replaces a corroded galvanised one. simpson and mcpherson found from measurements of 1/4scale models in arizona, that ceiling insulation is more effective in reducing daytime heat gain than increased roof albedo. however, simpson and mcpherson also made the interesting observation that on a 24-h basis an increased albedo was about as effective as addition of ceiling insulation in reducing building heat gain. this is explained in the paper due to the enhanced nighttime heat loss through the uninsulated ceiling of the high albedo roof. griggs et al. provide a comprehensive and very useful study on the effect of roof colour. their study includes a ''work sheet'' to calculate the energy cost savings as a result of a roof reflectance change and its use is demonstrated with two examples. however, the report by griggs et al. unfortunately does not contain explicit nomenclature a area (m2) f q*/ q factor of increase in heat flow due to solar illumination g solar radiation per unit area (beam diffuse) (w/m2) -g average radiation incident on a (horizontal) roof surface, - g  1/4  h
What is the focus of the majority of climate change studies?
the focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate
What is being considered?
we consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future
What is a critical step to address the impacts of climate change?
improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively
the focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. in terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. by concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. here we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. we present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. we consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. these include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. we highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively
What is the factors that revealed in the first GCM study?
the first gcm study of snowball deglaciation revealed that the climate sensitivity is very low in a snowball state and that even increasing the co2 concentration to 10% leaves the planet far short of deglaciation, particularly if the annual mean temperature criterion is employed (pierrehumbert 2004, 2005
What are the illustration demonstrated by the FOAM default-albedo simulations?
the annual mean equatorial surface air temperature increases only from 240 k to 243.6 k as co2 concentration is increased from 2,000 ppmv all the way to 10
the first gcm study of snowball deglaciation revealed that the climate sensitivity is very low in a snowball state and that even increasing the co2 concentration to 10% leaves the planet far short of deglaciation, particularly if the annual mean temperature criterion is employed (pierrehumbert 2004, 2005). this is well illustrated by the foam default-albedo simulations shown in figure 11 the annual mean equatorial surface air temperature increases only from 240 k to 243.6 k as co2 concentration is increased from 2,000 ppmv all the way to 10%. the maximum solstice temperatures are only a few degrees higher in this case, so the system is not even close to the point where seasonal melt is generated. these results are somewhat colder than the simulations in pierrehumbert (2004, 2005) despite the use of a more realistic (and lower) albedo of cold ice in the new simulations because the largely snow-free tropical continent in the earlier simulations warms the tropics. the main reasons for low climate sensitivity are the weak radiative forcing arising from the weak vertical temperature contrast in the summer hemisphere; the even weaker vertical temperature contrast in the winter hemisphere (which remains cold and bleeds off energy from the summer hemisphere); the absence of water vapor feedbacks in the cold, dry atmosphere; and the weak
What was the reasoning behind the argument by (Schelling, 1995; Weitzman, 1999) that investing in costly emission reductions could harm the interests of future generations of humans?
as they would have otherwise gained significant financial benefits (schelling, 1995; weitzman, 1999
Why would stabilization levels have significant distributive justice impacts?
stabilization levels will have significant distributive justice impacts, as those dependent on nonsubstitutable resources will bear a greater share of costs under higher stabilization
What assumption is reflected by quantity controls that limit emissions but not economic impacts?
quantity controls limit emissions but do not limit economic impacts, and reflect an assumption of lower substitutability
it has also been argued that the rights of future generations of humans are not compromised by not spending to prevent climate change but that, in fact, investing in costly emission reductions could harm their interests, as they would have otherwise gained significant financial benefits (schelling, 1995; weitzman, 1999). the key to this argument is substitution. investing in financial investments that accrue interest only works as an argument against zero discounting and reduced mitigation efforts in the present under assumptions of high substitutability. assumptions about substitutability are pivotal in understandings of the 'problem' and can have distributive justice implications across and within generations. in reality, some goods are substitutable and impacts can be cushioned through financial or technological transfers, while other impacts on endangered species, cultural systems,5 ecosystems and landscapes are not. stabilization levels will have significant distributive justice impacts, as those dependent on nonsubstitutable resources will bear a greater share of costs under higher stabilization. within climate policy, assumptions about substitutability are partially reflected in the mechanisms used to limit emissions. as first discussed in weitzman (1974), price mechanisms cap economic impacts while reducing emissions. quantity controls limit emissions but do not limit economic impacts, and reflect an assumption of lower substitutability. which instrument to prefer depends on the rate (and uncertainty) at which economic and environmental impacts change with emission controls and how these impacts are distributed (pizer, 1999).
What burden of climate change presents on the world's agricultural and natural resources?
climate change presents an additional burden on the world's agricultural and natural resources, which are already coping with the growing food demand driven by population growth and higher income in developing countries
How much rice importation increased in the 1990s decade of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines?
in the 1990s, rice importation for these three countries increased by around 1.5 million tonnes over the annual average registered during the previous decade
How much rice had to import alone by the Philippines in 2010?
in 2010, the philippines alone had to import 2.45 million tonnes of rice to address domestic requirements
climate change presents an additional burden on the world's agricultural and natural resources, which are already coping with the growing food demand driven by population growth and higher income in developing countries (wassmann et al., 2011). this is reflected in the escalating volumes of rice imported by nations that regularly experience production deficits. indonesia, malaysia and the philippines have begun to develop an untenable dependence on imported rice to ensure sufficient national stocks. in the 1990s, rice importation for these three countries increased by around 1.5 million tonnes over the annual average registered during the previous decade. by 2000, rice imports undertaken by indonesia, malaysia and the philippines had risen to some 6.5 million tonnes (mutert and fairhurst, 2002). in 2010, the philippines alone had to import 2.45 million tonnes of rice to address domestic requirements (irri, 2010).
What are the impacts of climate change on demographic factors?
the impacts of climate change on demographic factors, breeding performance and survival, which affect the population dynamics of species, have been less well explored than phenology
What is the example for a range of interacting factors?
for example, clutch size may vary with laying date (both calendar and with respect to the start of the nesting season), age and experience, population density, and a range of environmental factors such as latitude, altitude and habitat
What is the trend have shown from the studies?
several studies have shown trends in various aspects of breeding performance that correlate with trends in climate. pied flycatchers
the impacts of climate change on demographic factors, breeding performance and survival, which affect the population dynamics of species, have been less well explored than phenology. there is often a range of interacting factors that may influence any one demographic parameter, such that the influence of weather or climate may be difficult to elucidate clearly. for example, clutch size may vary with laying date (both calendar and with respect to the start of the nesting season), age and experience, population density, and a range of environmental factors such as latitude, altitude and habitat. however, several studies have shown trends in various aspects of breeding performance that correlate with trends in climate. pied flycatchers
Describe the climate for the two watersheds in Canada and Germany?
the manuscript addresses a very relevant issue, namely assessment of the uncertainty caused by hydrological model structures in climate change impacts. the author performs modeling using ensembles of climate models, bias correction/scaling methods and hydrological models for two catchments in canada and germany
What are the new enough results to justify the release on HESS?
the results are interesting and contain sufficient new results to justify publication in hess. however, there are a number of places in the manuscript where the description is so short that it is not possible to assess the soundness of the applied methodologies
Say manuscript?
furthermore, there are important weaknesses in the manuscript that need to be improved. therefore, i recommend that the authors are requested to address the comments given below, before the manuscript is accepted for publication in hess
the manuscript addresses a very relevant issue, namely assessment of the uncertainty caused by hydrological model structures in climate change impacts. the author performs modeling using ensembles of climate models, bias correction/scaling methods and hydrological models for two catchments in canada and germany. the results are interesting and contain sufficient new results to justify publication in hess. however, there are a number of places in the manuscript where the description is so short that it is not possible to assess the soundness of the applied methodologies. furthermore, there are important weaknesses in the manuscript that need to be improved. therefore, i recommend that the authors are requested to address the comments given below, before the manuscript is accepted for publication in hess.
What has led the author to study the impact of ethical workplaces on employees?
recent scandals such as worldcom, tyco, and enron have focused increased attention on business ethics. yet most of the attention addresses ethical concerns for stockholders and customers (e.g., collins, 2000; haigh and jones, 2006). equally important, of course, is the impact of ethical workplaces on employees
recent scandals such as worldcom, tyco, and enron have focused increased attention on business ethics. yet most of the attention addresses ethical concerns for stockholders and customers (e.g., collins, 2000; haigh and jones, 2006). equally important, of course, is the impact of ethical workplaces on employees. in this study, we examine how the organization  s ethical environment influences employees. drawing on p-o fit research, we suggest that understanding the influence the organization  s ethical environment has on employees requires consideration of both the organization  s ethics and the employee  s ethics. specifically, we explore how the fit between the ethical climate of the organization and employees' cognitive moral development affects employee job attitudes. research on organizational ethics in general, researchers have taken two different approaches to examining individuals  ethics in organizations. the first focuses on individuals  ethical orientations. this research considers issues such as individual level of cognitive moral development (kohlberg, 1981, 1984), individual ethical frameworks (jubb, 1999; judge and martocchio, 1996), and the effects of these on individuals  attitudes and behaviors. for example, researchers have studied how the moral development and ethical behavior of employees affect attitudes such as satisfaction and commitment (schminke et al., 2005; trevin~o et al., 1998; victor and cullen, 1988). the second stream of research focuses on organizational attributes that affect the moral behavior and attitudes of employees at work. this line of investigation considers how ethical characteristics of organizations, including the ethical climate, codes of ethics, and ethical policies affect individual ethics (chen et al., 1997; cowton and thompson, 2000;
What is the loss of native genotypes?
another potential side effect of agf
How much gene flow did Hedrick recommend for the first generation?
20
What could these levels of gene flow allow for as suggested by Hedrick?
the maintenance of florida panther alleles in the face of texas cougar
another potential side effect of agf, in addition to outbreeding depression and maladaptation to other environmental factors, is the loss of native genotypes. the of nonlocal genotypes could result in the swamping of local genotypes and a loss of genetic lineages (rhymer simberloff 1996, hufford mazer 2003). if too many individuals are introduced or if introduced individualshavehighrelativefitnessandreproductivesuccess,localgenotypes canbeevolutionarily replaced. in most cases, the number of genotypes introduced through agf will constitute a small fraction of the total population, so numerical swamping can be avoided in the short term by introducing only a limited number of individuals. the literature on genetic rescue provides some guidance on this topic. hedrick (1995) recommended using 20% gene flow in the first generation and 2-4% gene flow in subsequent generations for genetic rescue of the critically endangered and highly inbred florida panther felis concolor ssp. coryi without swamping alleles unique to that subspecies. he suggested that these levels of gene flow would allow for the maintenance of florida panther alleles in the face of texas cougar felis concolor ssp. stanleyana translocations. if introduced genotypes have higher fitness, on average, than local genotypes in new climates, and if introduced alleles increase in frequency through selection, it will be hard to distinguish a positive outcome (successful evolutionary rescue) from a potentially negative one (loss of ancestral genetic variation in the recipient population). however, the difference between these
What is the second fundamental principle of the process?
the second fundamental principle of the process is the presence of a gas and solids separation device, which is located in the upper part of the reactor
Why granular-type sludge is retained in the EGSB reactor and is maintained expanded?
mainly granular-type sludge is retained in the egsb reactor and is maintained expanded because of the high hydraulic rates applied to the system
For what the process was initially developed?
the process was initially developed for the treatment of concentrated wastewater
the second fundamental principle of the process is the presence of a gas and solids separation device, which is located in the upper part of the reactor. the main purpose of this device is the separation of the gases contained in the liquid mixture, so that a zone favouring sedimentation is created in the upper part of the reactor. the design of uasb reactors (figure 26.14) is very simple and does not require the installation of any sophisticated device or packing medium for biomass attachment and retention. the process was initially developed for the treatment of concentrated wastewater, with very good results. however, similarly to the expanded bed process, in warm-climate regions, uasb reactors have also been applied for the treatment of low-concentration wastewater (domestic sewage) with very good results. as a consequence, uasb reactors are currently one of the preferred alternatives for sewage treatment in these regions. more details about the design and operation of uasb reactors are given in chapter 27. (d) expanded granular sludge bed anaerobic reactor theexpandedgranularsludgebed(egsb)anaerobicreactor(figure26.15)greatly resembles the uasb reactor, except in respect to the sludge type and the expansion degree of the sludge bed. mainly granular-type sludge is retained in the egsb reactor and is maintained expanded because of the high hydraulic rates applied to the system. this condition intensifies the hydraulic mixing in the reactor and makes a better biomass-substrate contact. the high surface velocities of the liquid in the reactor (in the order of 5 to 10 m/hour) are achieved through the application of a high effluent recirculation rate, combined with the use of reactors with a high height/diameter ratio, around 20 or more (kato, 1994; lettinga, 1995). in contrast, in the uasb reactors, the sludge bed remains somewhat static, since the surface velocities of the liquid are usually lower, in the order of 0.5 to 1.5 m/hour. regarding the applicability of egsb reactors, these are mainly intended for the treatment of soluble effluents, as the high surface velocities of the liquid inside 724 anaerobic reactors
Where are areas of concern greatest?
cairns region
What will have a greater negative impact on the intertidal wetlands of GBR?
where sediment and freshwater inputs (rivers and groundwater) are reduced
Why do barrier need to be removed?
barriers will lead to unacceptable changes in mangrove, salt marsh or salt flat communities
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment chapter 9: vulnerability of mangroves and tidal wetlands of the great barrier reef to climate change reducing threats to resilience requires determining where barriers will lead to unacceptable changes in mangrove, salt marsh or salt flat communities followed by removal of barriers to landward migration. areas of greatest concern are those that are highly developed (eg cairns region) and which also have a relatively low tidal range and a high mangrove:salt marsh ratio. additionally, where sediment and freshwater inputs (rivers and groundwater) are reduced, barriers to landward migration will have a greater negative impact on the intertidal wetlands of the gbr.
What impacts of ENSO?
its impact is global, the origin of enso resides in the tropical pacific
Who plays a fundamental role in determining the characteristics of ENSO?
the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean within the tropical pacific basin plays a fundamental role in determining the characteristics of enso
What can we refer for history of ENSO?
the readers are referred to many review papers and monographs, in particular, the excellent text by philander (1990) and the special issue of the journal of geophysical research
although its impact is global, the origin of enso resides in the tropical pacific. the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean within the tropical pacific basin plays a fundamental role in determining the characteristics of enso. numerous studies have been devoted to documenting and understanding its evolution, its apparent preferred time scale, its phase locking to the annual cycle, its irregularity, and its impact. for a detailed account of the history of enso, the readers are referred to many review papers and monographs, in particular, the excellent text by philander (1990) and the special issue of the journal of geophysical research (1998, vol. 103, no. 14). there is little dispute that
What do many indigenous peoples rely on?
many indigenous peoples rely on resource-based livelihoods that efficiently use and manage natural resources in their localities
What is generally true of traditional livelihoods?
traditional livelihoods are generally diversified and are often associated with elaborate social and land tenure arrangements that contribute to the management of resources and reinforce societal resilience in the face of change
What did Galloway McLean conclude?
galloway mclean (2010) concluded that the most common adaptation responses by indigenous peoples involved adjustments required to adapt livelihoods to changing climatic conditions
many indigenous peoples rely on resource-based livelihoods that efficiently use and manage natural resources in their localities. these livelihoods, which may include subsistence farming, swidden agriculture, pastoralism, artisanal fishing, hunting and gathering, are small-scale and require specialized skills that are learnt through practical experience. traditional livelihoods are generally diversified and are often associated with elaborate social and land tenure arrangements that contribute to the management of resources and reinforce societal resilience in the face of change. in its discussion on the impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods, the ipcc's fourth assessment report (ar4) concluded that the topic required further development, noting that 'a number of case studies of impacts on smallholder livelihood systems in developing countries are beginning to appear'. in an analysis of over 350 case studies of indigenous peoples' adaptation in domains such as agriculture, water management, coastal management, disaster response and health, galloway mclean (2010) concluded that the most common adaptation responses by indigenous peoples involved adjustments required to adapt livelihoods to changing climatic conditions. the ar4 urged caution, however, in the analysis of livelihood impacts. specific impacts (such as those due to climate change) must be examined within the context of whole sets of confounding impacts at regional to local scales (adger, 2003; eakin, 2006; leichenko and o'brien, 2008). it is difficult to ascribe levels of confidence to these confounding impacts because livelihood systems are typically complex and involve a number of crop and livestock species, between which there are interactions, for example, intercropping practices (richards, 1986) or the use of draught-animal power for cultivation (powell et al., 1998), and potential substitutions such as alternative crops (ipcc, 2007). in their discussion on climate change impacts on remote pacific island communities in the solomon islands, rasmussen et al. (2009) remark that it is methodologically complex to distinguish adaptive actions and strategies directly related to climate change from general livelihood strategies, which also take into account climatic variability and the risks of extreme weather events. indeed diversification of livelihoods is a strategy shared by many indigenous peoples to enhance resilience in a context of environmental uncertainty. kronik and verner (2010a) consider multi-activity or diversification to be a central adaptive strategy, based on the acquisition of diverse livelihood skills (e.g. fishing, farming, hunting and gathering) and supplemented with new techniques adopted from other peoples, indigenous and non-indigenous. this
Is assisted colonization included in assisted gene flow as described here?
assisted gene flow as described here focuses on the movement of genotypes within existing species ranges and does not include assisted colonization, i.e., the of a species beyond the leading edge of migration to nucleate a range shift
AGF may what?
however, agf may facilitate the natural expansion of species' ranges by increasing the average fitness of individuals in leading edge populations, thereby resulting in higher fecundity and ultimately in higher dispersal into newly available, climatically suitable habitats (hu he 2006
Why AGF should increase diversity in leading edge populations and is therefore expected to have a positive effect on colonization ability?
because marginal populations have less genetic variation than central populations, on average (eckert et al. 2008), agf should increase diversity in leading edge populations and is therefore expected to have a positive effect on colonization ability
assisted gene flow as described here focuses on the movement of genotypes within existing species ranges and does not include assisted colonization, i.e., the of a species beyond the leading edge of migration to nucleate a range shift. however, agf may facilitate the natural expansion of species' ranges by increasing the average fitness of individuals in leading edge populations, thereby resulting in higher fecundity and ultimately in higher dispersal into newly available, climatically suitable habitats (hu he 2006). because marginal populations have less genetic variation than central populations, on average (eckert et al. 2008), agf should increase diversity in leading edge populations and is therefore expected to have a positive effect on colonization ability.
What did the second multilateral environmental policy contribute to?
second multilateral environmental policy focused on creating comprehensive regimes has contributed to the growth of important institutions that support global environmental governance
what is supported by these institutions?
where they are based on legal commitments and universal application, such institutions not only support the objectives of specific environmental treaties but become an important feature of overall environmental governance
what did the Copenhagen conference reveal?
but as we argue in this article, the copenhagen conference revealed not only the lack of willingness among key actors to commit to a legally binding climate treaty; it also demonstrated that the 'global deal' strategy may have passed the point of diminishing returns
second multilateral environmental policy focused on creating comprehensive regimes has contributed to the growth of important institutions that support global environmental governance. the institutions range from systems of generating, assessing and disseminating scientific information to national reporting instruments and mechanisms for capacity building and financial aid. where they are based on legal commitments and universal application, such institutions not only support the objectives of specific environmental treaties but become an important feature of overall environmental governance. they foster learning effects among states, with regard to the understanding of global environmental problems and the choice of effective policy instruments (haas et al., 1993; vogler, 2005). third the firm commitments that states enter into as part of a legally binding global deal send strong signals to private actors in the global economy, enabling them to reduce transaction costs. in contrast to voluntary pledges in a highly fragmented global governance system, a comprehensive treaty-based regime increases the credibility of public undertakings to reduce pollution. this in turn can stimulate a more determined effort by the private sector to deal proactively with environmental problems early on. such signalling is particularly important for long-term investment decisions by the corporate sector in environmentally friendly technologies and processes (engau and hoffmann, 2009). fourth even if international agreement on a global deal remains elusive, the continuous push for such an outcome helps to maintain political momentum in international negotiations. environmental leaders routinely put ambitious targets and time frames on the international agenda to set a high level of expectations and mobilise support for international solutions. the very fact of an ongoing negotiation process creates its own dynamics and can contribute to a more collaborative spirit among participants. as depledge and yamin (2009, p. 439) point out, '[t]he negotiating environment of a regime enmeshes delegations in a dense web of meetings, practices, processes, and rules, generating an inherent motivation among negotiators to advance the issue'. this logic of institutional bargaining is evident in the two-decade-long history of climate negotiations. at various points, negotiators were able to renew momentum for an international climate deal despite setbacks such as the us withdrawal from the kyoto protocol in 2001. in some sense, therefore, copenhagen can be seen to represent just another hold-up on the long road towards the final goal, a comprehensive international treaty on climate mitigation and adaptation. but as we argue in this article, the copenhagen conference revealed not only the lack of willingness among key actors to commit to a legally binding climate treaty; it also demonstrated that the 'global deal' strategy may have passed the point of diminishing returns. how has it come to this? from kyoto to copenhagen: a road to nowhere? the kyoto protocol epitomises both the success of the global deal strategy and its shortcomings. on the one hand, it was the first climate agreement that laid down quantitative targets for emission reductions. these are to be achieved over the first commitment period of 2008-12, by which time a new and more comprehensive treaty is meant to succeed kyoto. the kyoto protocol introduced innovative instruments for achieving its overall target in a costeffective manner, such as the flexibility of a five-year commitment period based on a mixed basket of six greenhouse gases, emissions trading, the clean development mechanism and joint implementation. the kyoto protocol thus scores highly in terms of some of its political achievements. the very fact that it was adopted in the face of strong resistance from powerful states and influential business interests is in itself a sign of the success of the 'global deal' strategy. on the other hand, in order for the kyoto protocol to be adopted, a number of compromises had to be built into the agreement that severely curtailed its environmental effectiveness (helm, 2009; victor, 2001). first, kyoto exempted all developing countries from mandatory emission reduction targets. this, of course, reflected the unfccc's principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities'. but by creating a sharp dividing line between annex i countries and nonannex i countries, the question of how to include the rapidly emerging emitters from the developing world in future mitigation efforts was left unresolved. it was to resurface as a critical stumbling block in the run-up to the 2009 copenhagen conference. second, and related to the first point, the united states never ratified the protocol, not least due to the us senate's insistence that emerging economies also undertake mandatory emission reductions. america's 2001 denunciation of its signature of the protocol dealt it a critical, if not fatal, blow. it removed the then largest greenhouse gas emitter from the regime's core mitigation effort, thus reducing its environmental impact even further; it placed an even heavier political and economic burden on the other industrialised countries that sought to make the agreement work without us participation; and it cast a shadow over any future effort to negotiate a post-kyoto climate treaty. re-engaging the us thus became an imperative for reviving the global deal strategy. third, the kyoto protocol suffered from several shortcomings in its regime design, including the short-term nature of its emission targets, the ability of countries to withdraw from the agreement and a weak compliance mechanism. these design faults reduced the incentives of annex i countries to invest in mitigation efforts and undermined the willingness of non-annex i countries to join the agreement at some future point. as barrett (2003,
Explain the criticisms of Deepak Kiawali from Nepal?
deepak gyawali, from nepal, and bruno messerli, from switzerland, provided critical reviews. thanks also are due to alton byers from the usa; li zheng, yongping yang and shichang kang from china
What did the IPCC say about Geneva's climate change?
jian liu from the inter governmental panel on climate change (ipcc), geneva; r.k. mazari from india; ahsan uddin ahmed from bangladesh; and john dore from thailand for comments
Describe the Andreas Schild study?
thanks for their great support, particularly to andreas schild for his review and encouragement and to ms. li qiaohong from the kunming institute of botany, chinese academy of sciences, for the literature study. this review is part of the brahmatwinn project, 6th eu framework programme
deepak gyawali, from nepal, and bruno messerli, from switzerland, provided critical reviews. thanks also are due to alton byers from the usa; li zheng, yongping yang and shichang kang from china; jian liu from the inter governmental panel on climate change (ipcc), geneva; r.k. mazari from india; ahsan uddin ahmed from bangladesh; and john dore from thailand for comments. thanks for their great support, particularly to andreas schild for his review and encouragement and to ms. li qiaohong from the kunming institute of botany, chinese academy of sciences, for the literature study. this review is part of the brahmatwinn project, 6th eu framework programme.
What is this study?
this study is part of a world bank project entitled ' incorporation of climate change to the strategies of rural development ' mendelsohn et al., 2007 ). the project collected economic surveys at the farm level from seven south american countries: argentina, brazil, chile, columbia, ecuador, uruguay, and venezuela
Why where these countries selected?
the countries were selected to represent the wide range of climate throughout south america and included representatives from both southern cone and andean regions. districts within each country were selected to provide as much within country climate variation as possible. sampling was clustered in villages within districts to reduce the costs
How many farmers were interviewed?
the original survey interviewed over 2000 farmers
this study is part of a world bank project entitled ' incorporation of climate change to the strategies of rural development ' mendelsohn et al., 2007 ). the project collected economic surveys at the farm level from seven south american countries: argentina, brazil, chile, columbia, ecuador, uruguay, and venezuela. the countries were selected to represent the wide range of climate throughout south america and included representatives from both southern cone and andean regions. districts within each country were selected to provide as much within country climate variation as possible. sampling was clustered in villages within districts to reduce the costs. the surveys asked detailed questions on farming activities during the one year period of july 2003 to june 2004 mendelsohn et al, 2007 ). initial surveys were designed and pretested with country team members cooperating in the project. data collection and initial coding were completed by each country team. the data was then cleaned to remove errors and omissions. the original survey interviewed over 2000 farmers. we removed observations with important missing data. about half the remaining farms were household farms and the other half were commercial farms. the study focuses on the seven major crops grown in south america: fruits and vegetables (31%), maize (24%), wheat (15%), squash (11%), rice (8%), potato (7%), and soybeans (4%). the frequency that each of these crops is the primary crop is shown in parentheses above. altogether these seven crops generated about 85% of the total revenue from crops in the sample. farmers that chose other crops as the primary crop
How is the pattern reversed?
sometimes, however, the pattern is reversed, with wide ranging consequences.6 e very 3-7 years el nino sets in and the easterly trade winds collapse or even reverse
How does the water of the western Pacific flow? expain further.
the water of the western pacific flows back eastward producing warm seas off the south american coast, but resulting in droughts in southeast asia and australia
How is the phenomenon called?
the phenomenon is called el nino, the spanish for 'the boy child,' because the warm waters have tended to arrive off the south american coast at christmas time. la nino, 'the girl child' is the more common phenomenon
sometimes, however, the pattern is reversed, with wide ranging consequences.6 e very 3-7 years el nino sets in and the easterly trade winds collapse or even reverse. the water of the western pacific flows back eastward producing warm seas off the south american coast, but resulting in droughts in southeast asia and australia. the phenomenon is called el nino, the spanish for 'the boy child,' because the warm waters have tended to arrive off the south american coast at christmas time. la nino, 'the girl child' is the more common phenomenon. there are many theories as to why this oscillation occurs but there is no consensus of opinion. recent models produced by the uk meteorological office provide fairly good short term predictions of the switchover between la nina and el nino, but they are complex, coupled atmospheric/oceanic models and there is no evidence of a simple, single cause. there has been a tendency towards more prolonged and more frequent el ninos since the early 1990s. this appears to be unprecedented and has caused speculation that it may be a consequence of global warming (figure 2.2). it is certainly plausible, since both phenomena involve large changes in the earth's heat balance. however, so far, there is no evidence to substantiate the connection.7
What are the use of modern portfolio theory?
the general problem addressed by this study is that of designing a decision support system for planned adaptation to climate change that uses the principles of modern portfolio theory to minimise risk and maximise return of adaptive actions in an environment of deep uncertainty over future climate scenarios
how modern portfolio theory can use?
the results of a climate change impact model to select an optimal set of seed sources to be used in regenerating forests of white spruce in an environment of multiple, equally plausible future climates
What are the primary force determining the vegetation?
since climate is the primary force determining the vegetation of a region, large shifts in the distribution and productivity of tree species can be forecast using climate change scenarios of general circulation models (gcm ' s) as drivers (e.g., iverson and prasad 2001 ). such forecasts are supported by fossil records of biotic responses to large-scale climatic changes during the pleistocene ice-ages and the early holocene when populations migrated rapidly northward and adapted to local climates after glacial recession (jackson et al. 1997 ). this migration was possible because many tree species exhibit phenotypic plasticity across different sites, and most possess high levels of genetic variation and breeding systems promoting high levels of genetic recombination
the general problem addressed by this study is that of designing a decision support system for planned adaptation to climate change that uses the principles of modern portfolio theory to minimise risk and maximise return of adaptive actions in an environment of deep uncertainty over future climate scenarios. here we show how modern portfolio theory can use the results of a climate change impact model to select an optimal set of seed sources to be used in regenerating forests of white spruce in an environment of multiple, equally plausible future climates. this study shows that components of solutions are not selected to perform equally well across all plausible futures; but rather, that components are selected to specialise in particular climate scenarios. the innovation of this research rests in demonstrating that the powerful and widely used principles of quantifying and planning for risk and return in the uncertain environment of asset markets can be applied successfully to serve the objectives of planned adaptation to climate change. 1 the response of forests to projected changes in global climate is expected to be profound. since climate is the primary force determining the vegetation of a region, large shifts in the distribution and productivity of tree species can be forecast using climate change scenarios of general circulation models (gcm ' s) as drivers (e.g., iverson and prasad 2001 ). such forecasts are supported by fossil records of biotic responses to large-scale climatic changes during the pleistocene ice-ages and the early holocene when populations migrated rapidly northward and adapted to local climates after glacial recession (jackson et al. 1997 ). this migration was possible because many tree species exhibit phenotypic plasticity across different sites, and most possess high levels of genetic variation and breeding systems promoting high levels of genetic recombination.
Which are indicative of the nature of biodiversity change?
represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change
What are the results of the meta-analysis?
the results of our metaanalysis indicate that absolute and relative responses of native and nonnative species to climatic shifts depend upon changing temperature and the type and direction of altered resource availability
Which of the aquatic creatures are ready to surpass the native creatures?
nonnative species are poised to outperform native species in aquatic ecosystems
to support proactive ecosystem management in a rapidly changing environment, it is important to understand how ongoing climatic changes are likely to interact with biological invasions. globally, both factors have been recognised as major drivers of biodiversity loss, and 'interactions among the causes of biodiversity change ... represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change' (sala et al. 2000). the results of our metaanalysis indicate that absolute and relative responses of native and nonnative species to climatic shifts depend upon changing temperature and the type and direction of altered resource availability. nonnative species are poised to outperform native species in aquatic ecosystems whereas responses in terrestrial systems are less consistent.
What do community change potray?
these community changes are generally attributed to climate change, and cti has been suggested as an indicator of the biodiversity responses to climate change
What are responsible for the changes in CTI?
it has been suggested that land use change may be partly responsible for changes in cti, due to correlations between species' habitat associations and the degree to which they are classed as coldor warm-associated
What is it based on?
however, they must be based on realistic parameters and ideally validated with independent empirical data in order to usefully inform us on outcomes of real-world interacting processes
these community changes are generally attributed to climate change, and cti has been suggested as an indicator of the biodiversity responses to climate change.159however, it has been suggested that land use change may be partly responsible for changes in cti, due to correlations between species' habitat associations and the degree to which they are classed as coldor warm-associated. in particular, due to a latitudinal gradient in woodland cover in europe, cold-associated species are more likely to be woodland species. therefore, a loss of woodland may negatively impact these species and reduce cti scores.160therefore, clavero et al.160suggest that land use change needs to be controlled for in assessing the effects of climate change on community composition; e.g., by stratifying analyses by land use change. these examples illustrate the difficulty in attributing changes in biodiversity to either land use change or climate change. analyses need to be appropriately designed with adequate spatiotemporal data on both drivers. for example, a recent study by eglington and pearce-higgins31compares the relative impact of climate change (temperature and rainfall) versus land use change (degree of agricultural intensification) on bird populations. results suggest that land use change has been a more significant driver of bird declines compared with climate change to date. although, their model did not consider interaction effects between climate and land use, these could potentially be included in the analytical framework. finally, where empirical analysis is not feasible (e.g., due to spatial extent of a study) then processbased theoretical modeling may play a useful role in exploring land use change climate change interactions (e.g., refs 70, 161). however, they must be based on realistic parameters and ideally validated with independent empirical data in order to usefully inform us on outcomes of real-world interacting processes.
Nitric acid can also react with which substance?
nitric acid also can react with ammonia
Nitric acid with ammonia form what substance?
to form particulate ammonium nitrate
The fate of nitrogen compounds bound to dust is also affected by what?
is affected by the particle-size distribution of the dust
nitric acid also can react with ammonia, a common base in the atmosphere, to form particulate ammonium nitrate. these nh no particles are a poten4 3 z tial scatterer of solar radiation see above as well as a potential source for cloud condensation nuclei. the fate of the nitrogen compounds attached to the dust also is affected by the particle-size distribution of the dust. large mineral particles tend to be removed from suspension quite rapidly by gravitational settling, and any hno adsorbed on large particles will 3 have a relatively short residence time compared with hno associated with smaller particles. the fact that 3 z nitrate often is associated with coarse particles i.e., those larger than 1 m m diameter means that reactions of hno on dust probably reduce the atmo3 spheric lifetime of this compound. model studies of the reactions between mineral z aerosol and nitric acid dentener et al., 1996 indicate that mineral dust does have a significant effect on the partitioning of hno between the vapor and 3 particulate phase: in their model, 40% or more of the atmospheric nitrate is associated with mineral particles over large areas of the globe, with considerable areas having over 80% of the nitrate associated with dust. the effects are quite variable geographically, however, with the highest proportions of dustassociated nitrate located downwind of the major dust
What has been proposed could affect the earth's climate?
it has been proposed that earth's climate could be affected by changes in cloudiness caused by variations in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays in the atmosphere
What intriguing observation has been made?
the observation has raised the intriguing possibility that a cosmic ray-cloud interaction may help explain how a relatively small change in solar output can produce much larger changes in earth's climate
What does the mentioned proposal stem from?
this proposal stems from an observed correlation between cosmic ray intensity and earth's average cloud cover over the course of one solar cycle
it has been proposed that earth's climate could be affected by changes in cloudiness caused by variations in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays in the atmosphere. this proposal stems from an observed correlation between cosmic ray intensity and earth's average cloud cover over the course of one solar cycle. some scientists question the reliability of the observations, whereas others, who accept them as reliable, suggest that the correlation may be caused by other physical phenomena with decadal periods or by a response to volcanic activity or el nin~o. nevertheless, the observation has raised the intriguing possibility that a cosmic ray-cloud interaction may help explain how a relatively small change in solar output can produce much larger changes in earth's climate. physical mechanisms have been proposed to explain how cosmic rays could affect clouds, but they need to be investigated further if the observation is to become more than just another correlation among geophysical variables.
How does the city of London categorize identified adaptations?
for example, city of london, (2006), categorises all identified adaptation options as being no-regret, (benefits outweigh costs under all climate scenarios), 33 low-regret, (low costs and potentially high benefits), win-win (address climate risks and also result in other benefits), or flexible (in responding to uncertainty under longer term climate change
How does this example affect economic stances?
this example also serves to illustrate the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation decisionmaking into current investment cycles
Are any other cities besides London evaluated?
it then attempts to evaluate how climate change impacts may affect its competitiveness vis-a-vis new york and tokyo
in both studies, the potential responses to climate change impacts described are primarily dictated by sectoral stakeholders. in london, lccp (2006a) also draws upon comparative analysis that identifies adaptive measures used in cities that currently experience similar climate conditions (now) to those projected for london under future climate change scenarios. however, the uncertainty that resides in impact analysis, from, for example, the range of conditions under alternative climate change scenarios, has so far deterred sectoral adaptation analysis away from probabilistic scenario-based quantification and towards the pursuit of adaptation strategies that utilise options that will be beneficial even in the absence of climate change. for example, city of london, (2006), categorises all identified adaptation options as being no-regret, (benefits outweigh costs under all climate scenarios), 33 low-regret, (low costs and potentially high benefits), win-win (address climate risks and also result in other benefits), or flexible (in responding to uncertainty under longer term climate change). the resulting options are then evaluated qualitatively. as an illustration, in order to manage flood risks a suggestion is that "the city of london corporation should consider installing sustainable drainage systems, green roofs or green walls on city of london corporation-owned car parks and buildings when they are refurbished or replaced". this example also serves to illustrate that a key feature of the research on adaptation is to identify the principal actors likely to be engaged in implementation of specific adaptation actions. this example also serves to illustrate the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation decisionmaking into current investment cycles. this process has been further formalised in the analysis of the water resource sector in new york, (rosenzweig et. al. 2007). here, the stepped assessment procedure for adaptation outlined in table 3 has been developed in a context where a mature infrastructure system exists, where its managers are skilled at dealing with existing hydrologic variability, and where there are many potential adaptations to the risk of climate change in the nyc water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems. quantitative modelling of existing hydrologic variability, quantitative analysis of climate change impacts - imposed on projected socio-economic change - has subsequently been developed. whilst quantitative decision analysis has not been reported to date, it is understood that appraisal of new infrastructure will use cost-benefit studies to estimate net benefits and reduce fiduciary risk. thus, investment appraisal in e.g. transport (london) and water supply (new york) appear to be principal areas where quantitative analysis will be undertaken. it is notable, however, that quantitative analysis on an aggregated, multi-sectoral, basis, as utilised by integrated assessment models at macroscales, is not undertaken at the city-scale in these examples, suggesting that there remains the potential for such indicators to be used in a more strategic way within city administrations and beyond. finally, as highlighted earlier, some city-based sectoral impacts such as water and food supplies have to be viewed within a broader geographical context, london and new york, need to be seen as global 34 mega-cities with substantial economic importance both nationally and internationally, having assets and operations at risk from projected climate change. since both cities are major global financial market centres they can also be viewed as competitors with each other. indeed, the london scoping study makes this competitiveness explicit by sketching out an index of attractiveness. it then attempts to evaluate how climate change impacts may affect its competitiveness vis-a-vis new york and tokyo. interestingly, it concludes that on this type of index these cities may suffer more in relative terms than london.
what does the climate system contains?
the climate system contains several types of large-scale variability, which influence average weather patterns in a similar way as the annual seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) or monsoon and dry seasons
how common these climate change system changes occur?
these changes take place every few years, decades or even centuries, across large parts of the globe
write down some examples related to climate change system?
examples include el nino/la nina and the southern oscillation, arctic oscillation, north atlantic oscillation, antarctic oscillation and the stratospheric quasi-biannual oscillation
the variability of our climate is not limited to day-to-day changes in the weather. instead, the climate system contains several types of large-scale variability, which influence average weather patterns in a similar way as the annual seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) or monsoon and dry seasons. rather than occurring annually however, these changes take place every few years, decades or even centuries, across large parts of the globe. some of these patterns involve only the atmosphere, while others include a coupling to the ocean circulation. examples include el nino/la nina and the southern oscillation, arctic oscillation, north atlantic oscillation, antarctic oscillation and the stratospheric quasi-biannual oscillation. if global climate change were to affect these modes of variability, it could have major implications for the occurrence of extreme weather events. the most well-known examples of interannual variability, possibly impacting the most on the occurrence of natural disasters, are el nino and its counterpart la nina, both part of a coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillation called the el nino/southern oscillation. enso is a quasi-periodic event that occurs every three to seven years, sometimes stronger, sometimes weaker, as a result of a complex set of interactions
When did Kyrgyz import and export energy from/to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan?
table a.iii in the appendix shows kyrgyz energy imports and exports from/to uzbekistan and kazakhstan from 1991 to 1999
When is the last year that systematic information exists?
no systematic information exists for the period after 1999
Why does Uzbekistan refuse to pay for water?
the reason is that, despite repeated requests by kyrgyzstan that uzbekistan pay for upstream water releases, uzbekistan insists that it is, according to international conventions dealing with transboundary freshwater catchments,14entitled to receive a fair share of the syr darya's waters
fossil fuel trade data between the riparian states is harder to track than electricity trade. table a.iii in the appendix shows kyrgyz energy imports and exports from/to uzbekistan and kazakhstan from 1991 to 1999. this information suggests that compliance with bilateral targets before the 1998agreement andduring the starting phaseof this agreement has been incomplete at best. no systematic information exists for the period after 1999. our interviews with decisionmakers in bishkek and tashkent in june 2009 strongly suggest, however, that in most years since 1999, negotiations did not take place, failed to produce specific targets, or set targets that were not met. these hydrocarbon trade data are important because the 1998 agreement has been conceptualized primarily as an energy-for-energy, rather than a water-for-energy exchange. the reason is that, despite repeated requests by kyrgyzstan that uzbekistan pay for upstream water releases, uzbekistan insists that it is, according to international conventions dealing with transboundary freshwater catchments,14entitled to receive a fair share of the syr darya's waters. hence it refuses to pay for water per se. kazakhstan has followed a more conciliatory policy with respect to water-energy exchanges with kyrgyzstan. the principal reason, as noted further above, is that kazakhstan's economy and population are less sensitive to kyrgyzstan's dam operations than uzbekistan's.
over what period of years was the survey carried out?
there were 12 182 hospital visits (2% sample) due to all noncholera diarrhoea from 1996 to 2002, in which 41% were under one year olds and 31% were aged between 1 and 14 years
how old were the people investigated in the survey in question?
there were 12 182 hospital visits (2% sample) due to all noncholera diarrhoea from 1996 to 2002, in which 41% were under one year olds and 31% were aged between 1 and 14 years
what kind of virus turned out to be spread in winter?
seasonality was varied between pathogen-specific diarrhoea, for example, rotavirus was common in winter in addition to a lower peak in the middle of the monsoon. e. coli had a single peak before the monsoon
there were 12 182 hospital visits (2% sample) due to all noncholera diarrhoea from 1996 to 2002, in which 41% were under one year olds and 31% were aged between 1 and 14 years. descriptive statistics for the number of patients and weather variables are displayed in table 1. a wide variety of pathogens were found in the diarrhoea patients, most common were rotavirus and e. coli each found in about a quarter of the cases. total non-cholera diarrhoea had a bimodal seasonality of which timing of the first peak was before the monsoon (high rainfall period) and the second peak was at the end of the monsoon (figure 1). seasonality was varied between pathogen-specific diarrhoea, for example, rotavirus was common in winter in addition to a lower peak in the middle of the monsoon. e. coli had a single peak before the monsoon.
Which countries were affected in the droughts  of 2007 and 2008?
in 2007 catastrophic droughts become entrenched in the usa and australia, and in 2008 in china
Which Chinese river was badly affected in the drought?
the waters of the yangtze fell to their lowest levels since 1866
What are the impact of the drastic fall in river levels?
the drastic falls in river levels are feared not only for their economic impacts but also for the increasing toxicity of the water that remains and the potential of the drought to destroy the habitats of species such as the finless dolphin, the chinese sturgeon and many bird species. one dreadful impact of the drying of lakes and rivers is the way it drives the march of rats inland from the dried-out reed beds towards human populations in their search for food
in 2007 catastrophic droughts become entrenched in the usa and australia, and in 2008 in china the waters of the yangtze fell to their lowest levels since 1866. this river alone provides drinking water to hundreds of millions of people and thousands of factories in a delta that accounts for 40% of the economic output of china. the drastic falls in river levels are feared not only for their economic impacts but also for the increasing toxicity of the water that remains and the potential of the drought to destroy the habitats of species such as the finless dolphin, the chinese sturgeon and many bird species. one dreadful impact of the drying of lakes and rivers is the way it drives the march of rats inland from the dried-out reed beds towards human populations in their search for food.
What are the limitations of laboratory studies?
a further limitation of laboratory studies is that in such a laboratory situation, an individual may state that a particular fear approach should be very motivating to the target audience
What is considered?
we consider here, paraphrasing monahan (1995; in hastings et al., 2004), that the question of whether fear appeals should be used when communicating climate change should be posed differently. instead of "should fear be used?" would it be more useful to ask, "is a fear appeal the most appropriate and effective method for engaging individuals with climate change?" we now examine this proposition
What is percieaved by the individuals?
this again demonstrates the barriers, at both individual and social levels (lorenzoni et al., 2007), individuals perceive when they are confronted with climate fear appeals
a further limitation of laboratory studies is that in such a laboratory situation, an individual may state that a particular fear approach should be very motivating to the target audience. on closer inspection however, it transpires that the individuals involved understand with some sophistication what the approach is trying to achieve but are not themselves personally moved (hastings et al., 2004). this again demonstrates the barriers, at both individual and social levels (lorenzoni et al., 2007), individuals perceive when they are confronted with climate fear appeals. we consider here, paraphrasing monahan (1995; in hastings et al., 2004), that the question of whether fear appeals should be used when communicating climate change should be posed differently. instead of "should fear be used?" would it be more useful to ask, "is a fear appeal the most appropriate and effective method for engaging individuals with climate change?" we now examine this proposition.
What is an example of a farm management practice?
they also include a range of farm management practices (such as soil and water conservation practices, crop diversification, and improved tillage practices
What is an example of agricultural emissions?
actions that reduce direct agricultural emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides
Of the following choices, which is not a mitigation option for agriculture: activities that decrease carbon stocks above and below ground, actions that reduce direct agricultural emissions, and actions that prevent deforestation?
mitigation options for agriculture, in contrast, are generally divided into three broad categories of practices: (1) activities that increase carbon stocks above and below ground; (2) actions that reduce direct agricultural emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides) anywhere in the lifecycle of agricultural production; and (3) actions that prevent the deforestation and degradation of
a growing body of literature addresses the management practices that can be used to enhance the adaptive capacity or mitigation potential of tropical agricultural systems (e.g., fao 2010, 2013; wollenberg et al. 2012b). adaptation options include a wide set of approaches designed to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems to climate change. these options include engineering solutions that deal with climate-related risks, breeding for different environmental stresses, developing early warning systems, and establishing crop insurance systems. they also include a range of farm management practices (such as soil and water conservation practices, crop diversification, and improved tillage practices) that make agricultural systems more resilient to climate change, diversify farmer livelihoods and ensure the continued supply of ecosystem services (howden et al. 2007). mitigation options for agriculture, in contrast, are generally divided into three broad categories of practices: (1) activities that increase carbon stocks above and below ground; (2) actions that reduce direct agricultural emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides) anywhere in the lifecycle of agricultural production; and (3) actions that prevent the deforestation and degradation of
Only what has a data series long enough to permit validation?
only abramov has a data series long enough to permit validation, which showed for both decades that june runoff was not reproduced very well
What is the stipulated limit of simulated runoff deviations from measured values?
simulated runoff deviates from measured values from between 55 mm to 75 mm, which lies well outside the stipulated limit of 20 mm
What is the reason for the failure of the OEZ in replicating runoff?
a look at the mean values of precipitation and temperature for the oez calibration and validation periods suggests that the difference in june temperature is the reason for the failure of the oez in replicating runoff
only abramov has a data series long enough to permit validation, which showed for both decades that june runoff was not reproduced very well. simulated runoff deviates from measured values from between 55 mm to 75 mm, which lies well outside the stipulated limit of 20 mm. a look at the mean values of precipitation and temperature for the oez calibration and validation periods suggests that the difference in june temperature is the reason for the failure of the oez in replicating runoff. the mean monthly temperatures of the first and second validation decades for june differ by 0.9degc, and this is enough to cause significant errors in replicating measured runoff. in the other summer months, temperatures from the validation decades differ only very slightly from those of the calibration period. differences in precipitation cannot be the cause of failure, because differences for june are comparable to those for other summer months, which are validated successfully. 4.1.2 annual water balance table 5 below presents the values of the water balance produced by the calibrated models, contrasting them with available measured values for the same time period. evaporation,
What do some climate policies include? All nations
some climate policies include all nations while others include only high emitters
What do other nations include? Include only large emitters
some climate policies include all nations while others include only high emitters
What does selective climate policy mean? It means that industrialized countries bear the full burden while developing countries will not have to reduce emissions
selective climate policy means that industrialized countries shoulder the entire burden and that developing countries will not have to reduce emissions
some climate policies include all nations while others include only high emitters. despite similar emission reductions, these choices may have distributive implications. selective climate policy means that industrialized countries shoulder the entire burden and that developing countries will not have to reduce emissions, but it may also limit resource transfer mechanisms (benedick, 2001; stewart and wiener, 2003; wellington et al., 2007). this type of policy is focused on emissions reductions, not human development. comprehensive policy designs either impose a standard equation of reductions on nations (usually moderated by ability to pay measures such as gdp) or have graduated threshold designs. many of these may involve reductions in developing countries but also have resource transfer mechanisms to defray impacts on development. in these policies, climate change and human development are both critical goals. assumptions about the extent to which the climate problem is defined by emissions reductions or human development can have considerable implications for the costs and benefits included in policy negotiation.
What does the tragedy of the commons presents?
the tragedy of the commons presents a conflict over resources between individual interests and the common good
What is an example of a "tragedy of unmanaged commons"?
overfishing of the world's fish populations and pollution of the earth's atmosphere are modern day examples of a "tragedy of unmanaged commons
What climate change communicators need to do?
climate change communicators need to recognize this dichotomy and address it by tapping into
the tragedy of the commons presents a conflict over resources between individual interests and the common good. commons dilemmas describe conflicts resulting from free access and unrestricted demand for a finite natural resource. this ultimately threatens the resource and leads to exploitation. the benefits of exploitation go to individuals, each of whom is motivated to maximize his or her use of the resource, while the costs of exploitation are distributed among all who share the resource.54 overfishing of the world's fish populations and pollution of the earth's atmosphere are modern day examples of a "tragedy of unmanaged commons." environmental decisions pose a similar dilemma to the tragedy of the commons scenarios, in that an individual's benefit may or may not be the same as what benefits society. in other words, deciding to engage in behaviors that help mitigate climate change, a benefit for society, may seem more of a cost than a benefit to the individuals who would engage in them, at least in the short term. climate change communicators need to recognize this dichotomy and address it by tapping into
What were the decisions taken in 13 th session of IPCC ?
to include a synthesis report as part of its third assessment report that the synthesis report would provide a policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive, synthesis and integration of information contained within the third assessment report and also drawing upon all previously approved and accepted ipcc reports that would address a broad range of key policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive, questions
Which organizations were consulted for developing the questions?
the questions would be developed in consultation with the conference of the parties (cop) to the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc
When was the submission of 9 questions approved by IPCC ?
at its fifteenth session
in accordance with a decision taken at its thirteenth session (maldives, 22 and 25-28 september 1997) and other subsequent decisions, the ipcc decided: to include a synthesis report as part of its third assessment report that the synthesis report would provide a policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive, synthesis and integration of information contained within the third assessment report and also drawing upon all previously approved and accepted ipcc reports that would address a broad range of key policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive, questions that the questions would be developed in consultation with the conference of the parties (cop) to the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc). the following nine questions were based on submissions by governments and were approved by the ipcc at its fifteenth session (san jose, costa rica, 15-18 april 1999).
What is a historical example of abrupt climate change?
this is certainly the characteristic of climate change associated with the most frequently cited example of abrupt climate change, the collapse of the thc in the north atlantic
If I wanted more information on abrupt climate change, which researcher should I look up for more resources?
figure 2 gives two examples from the work of rahmstorf ganopolski, in both cases with a reversal in temperature trend
What are some shortcomings of current climate change models?
on the other hand, climate models may not be particularly reliable in their representation of the most extreme weather events, and impact and adaptation studies may not often actually make use of the available statistics from such modelling experiments
abrupt climate change: can society cope? 2005 direction. all the ipcc scenarios contain basically unidirectional curves of climate change, at least at global and large-regional scales. + a non-standard abrupt scenario therefore could be when the direction of climate change alters in a sustained manner, for example, when climate substantially warms (or becomes wetter) for several decades and then substantially cools (or dries) for several decades. this is certainly the characteristic of climate change associated with the most frequently cited example of abrupt climate change, the collapse of the thc in the north atlantic. figure 2 gives two examples from the work of rahmstorf ganopolski, in both cases with a reversal in temperature trend. severity. strictly speaking, the severity of climate change is not related to abruptness, although there are two aspects here that are sometimes related to abrupt climate change: the exceedance of certain climate thresholds, for example, those that may trigger thc collapse ++ and the occurrence of one or more extreme or unprecedented weather/climatic events. the latter, for example, is explicitly discussed as a form of abrupt climate change in the nrc report. an unprecedented event occurring in a given place is abrupt in the sense that the probability of its occurrence suddenly changes from zero to some non-zero value. this may have enormous significance for society. in principle, both of these types of abrupt climate change related to severity are embedded in the ipcc (2001) scenarios, and hence conventional vulnerability and adaptation studies are in principle able to consider them. on the other hand, climate models may not be particularly reliable in their representation of the most extreme weather events, and impact and adaptation studies may not often actually make use of the available statistics from such modelling experiments. before proceeding to discuss how society may or may not cope with abrupt climate change, it is also useful to distinguish between the experience of abrupt climate change and the anticipation of abrupt climate change. by focusing on the experience of abrupt climate change, we can use historical examples, or analogues, to explore how societies and ecosystems have responded in the past. the anticipation of abrupt climate change, on the other hand, will lead to a different exploration of climate- society interactions and therefore different forms of adaptive behaviour. table 1 gives an example for each type of identified abrupt climate change: experienced versus anticipated and, where the definition is based on rate, direction or severity. we will return to some of these examples later in the paper. implicit in this two-dimensional framing of abrupt climate change are the questions of permanency and timing. severity exceedance in particular ought really to be further qualified in terms of frequency or return period if a more robust definitional framework of abrupt climate change were to be developed.
The research data consisted of interviews conducted with how many women
the research data consisted of interviews conducted with thirty women
The sample was recruited through what
the sample was recruited through 'snowballing
How many of the samples had kids
eight of the sample had children
the research data consisted of interviews conducted with thirty women. the sample was recruited through 'snowballing' and through poster and handout advertisements. the first author (who conducted the interviews) contacted women known to her and then asked them to pass on an information handout to others. handouts and posters were displayed in libraries, shops and other public places asking 'women alone' to participate in a study of meanings of 'singleness'. these notices explained that the researcher was herself single, and that she was interested in knowing 'what being single means to you now, what it has meant to you in the past, what kind of choices you have made, and your hopes for the future'. twenty-one women were included in the study as a result of the snowballing process and nine women were included who made contact because they had seen a poster or received a handout. the typical demographic profile of the participants did not vary significantly across the two methods of recruiting. the criteria for inclusion in the sample were that women had either remained single, or been divorced, separated or widowed for more than two years; were not living with anyone (male or female) in an intimate partnership at the time of making contact; and were aged between 30 and 60 years. apart from these fairly broad parameters it was left to women to self-define themselves as single. for the theoretical reasons discussed above we did not wish to define 'who is single' according to strict criteria. appendix 1 shows the sample by age grouping, occupation, parenting status and by their status as 'always single' or 'single again' (which refers to those who have been married previously). the majority of women interviewed were relatively homogenous in terms of social class, ethnicity and educational background (mainly middle-class, white british), with some variation in current employment and income. eight of the sample had children, in four cases these were adults living in separate households at the time of the interview. two participants had a mixed race background. most referred to heterosexual experience, one person identified herself as lesbian and two had had relationships with women as well as men. the research was mainly carried out in london, another city in the southwest of
What long-term investments are needed for Adaptation analyses?
in particular, this applies to long-term investments such as plant and animal breeding programs; building capacity in the scientific and user communities; developing quarantine systems; establishing perennial crops and forest plantations; purchasing or selling land; or building (or decommissioning) major infrastructure such as dams and water distribution systems, flood mitigation works, and storage and transport facilities
What country has increased risk of drought under global warming?
in western australia, increased risk of drought under global warming was integrated with projections of population growth, economic development, and social norms in relation to water use, resulting in the construction of a major new dam and development of other new water sources (17
What can help inform governments of the investment or disinvestment decisions they need to make?
adaptation analyses can also help inform governments and industry of the investment or disinvestment decisions they need to make now or in the near future in relation to climate-sensitive aspects of their portfolios (e.g., ref. 1
adaptation analyses can also help inform governments and industry of the investment or disinvestment decisions they need to make now or in the near future in relation to climate-sensitive aspects of their portfolios (e.g., ref. 1). in particular, this applies to long-term investments such as plant and animal breeding programs; building capacity in the scientific and user communities; developing quarantine systems; establishing perennial crops and forest plantations; purchasing or selling land; or building (or decommissioning) major infrastructure such as dams and water distribution systems, flood mitigation works, and storage and transport facilities. climate risks are, of course, only one consideration within more complex decision-making processes (10). for example, in western australia, increased risk of drought under global warming was integrated with projections of population growth, economic development, and social norms in relation to water use, resulting in the construction of a major new dam and development of other new water sources (17).
In the presence of inertia, would well-founded actions to adapt to or mitigate climate change be more effective if taken earlier rather than later?
in the presence of inertia, well-founded actions to adapt to or mitigate climate change are more effective, and in some circumstances may be cheaper, if taken earlier rather than later
What are the different consequences of inertia for adaptation and mitigation?
inertia has different consequences for adaptation than for mitigation--with adaptation being primarily oriented to address localized impacts of climate change, while mitigation aims to address the impacts on the climate system
What are two major reasons why anticipatory adaptation and mitigation actions are beneficial?
the pervasiveness of inertia and the possibility of irreversibility in the interacting climate, ecological, and socio-economic systems are major reasons why anticipatory adaptation and mitigation actions are beneficial
inertia and uncertainty in the climate, ecological, and socio-economic systems imply that safety margins should be considered in setting strategies, targets, and time tables for avoiding dangerous levels of interference in the climate system. stabilization target levels of, for instance, atmospheric co2 concentration, temperature, or sea level may be affected by: the inertia of the climate system, which will cause climate change to continue for a period after mitigation actions are implemented uncertainty regarding the location of possible thresholds of irreversible change and the behavior of the system in their vicinity the time lags between adoption of mitigation goals and their achievement. similarly, adaptation is affected by the time lags involved in identifying climate change impacts, developing effective adaptation strategies, and implementing adaptive measures. inertia in the climate, ecological, and socio-economic systems makes adaptation inevitable and already necessary in some cases, and inertia affects the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation strategies. inertia has different consequences for adaptation than for mitigation--with adaptation being primarily oriented to address localized impacts of climate change, while mitigation aims to address the impacts on the climate system. these consequences have bearing on the most cost-effective and equitable mix of policy options. hedging strategies and sequential decision making (iterative action, assessment, and revised action) may be appropriate responses to the combination of inertia and uncertainty. in the presence of inertia, well-founded actions to adapt to or mitigate climate change are more effective, and in some circumstances may be cheaper, if taken earlier rather than later. the pervasiveness of inertia and the possibility of irreversibility in the interacting climate, ecological, and socio-economic systems are major reasons why anticipatory adaptation and mitigation actions are beneficial. a number of opportunities to exercise adaptation and mitigation options may be lost if action is delayed. * * *
What does the  flow duration curve is indicative?
although the flow duration curve is indicative of severity of flood conditions, detailed analysis for one of the subbasins experiencing the severest flooding under the ghg scenario has been carried out (figure 11
How is the annual maximum peak in the sub-basin?
the annual maximum peak in the sub-basin has exceeded from the present level of about 20000 cumecs under control scenario to a maximum level of about 37000 cumecs under ghg scenario
How may the increase in flood peak be detrimental ?
such an increase in flood peak may be detrimental to a large number of existing structures on these drainage systems
although the flow duration curve is indicative of severity of flood conditions, detailed analysis for one of the subbasins experiencing the severest flooding under the ghg scenario has been carried out (figure 11). the worst affected sub-basin in mahanadi (sub-basins 15) has been analysed for flood severity (figure 11). the annual maximum peak in the sub-basin has exceeded from the present level of about 20000 cumecs under control scenario to a maximum level of about 37000 cumecs under ghg scenario. in the ghg scenario, there have been three years when the peak level of 30000 cumecs has been predicted to surpass. such an increase in flood peak may be detrimental to a large number of existing structures on these drainage systems.
Which are the best models to go by?
the best models produce results that inform and lend clarity to the climate policy debate
What is unfortunate about many climate-economic models?
unfortunately, many climate-economics models suffer from a lack of transparency
What is a surprising conclusion of some models?
rapid, comprehensive emissions abatement is both economically unsound and unnecessary
there is no shortage of models that join climate to economy with the goal of predicting the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in the decades to come and offering policy advice on when, where, and by how much to abate emissions. some models are designed to offer a detailed portrayal of the climate, or the process of economic growth, or the feedback between these two systems; others focus on the long-run or the short-run, economic damages or environmental damages, carbon-based energy sectors or abatement technology. the best models produce results that inform and lend clarity to the climate policy debate. some models surprisingly conclude - in direct contradiction of the urgency expressed in the scientific literature - that rapid, comprehensive emissions abatement is both economically unsound and unnecessary. some models seem to ignore (and implicitly endorse the continuation of) gross regional imbalances of both emissions and income. good climate policy requires the best possible understanding of how climatic change will impact on human lives and livelihoods, in industrialized countries and in developing countries. no model gets it all right, but the current body of climate-economics models and theories contains most of the ingredients for a credible model of climate and development in an unequal world. unfortunately, many climate-economics models suffer from a lack of transparency, which affects both their policy relevance and their credibility. building a model of the climate and the economy inevitably involves numerous judgement calls; debatable judgements and untestable hypotheses turn out to be of great importance in determining the policy recommendations of climate-economics models and should be visible for debate. a good climate-economics model
What is the intrinsic vulnerability of farmers?
the intrinsic vulnerability of smallholder and subsistence farmers has been discussed above, as have the diverse powerful nonclimate stressors to which they are currently and increasingly subject
Describe three nonclimate stressors.
management of nonclimate stressors, such as poor market access, by governments and development donors, would itself constitute a powerful strategy for assisting adaptation, but some stressors, particularly various forms of environmental degradation, will themselves be influenced by climate change
What did O'Brien and Leichenko along with Gommes et al. study?
approaches to mapping the combined vulnerability of rural populations to climate change and nonclimate stressors, have been explored for globalization by o'brien and leichenko (71) and for hiv/aids by gommes et al. (72
the intrinsic vulnerability of smallholder and subsistence farmers has been discussed above, as have the diverse powerful nonclimate stressors to which they are currently and increasingly subject. all these contribute to a very specific context of high vulnerability and limited adaptive capacity (65). management of nonclimate stressors, such as poor market access, by governments and development donors, would itself constitute a powerful strategy for assisting adaptation, but some stressors, particularly various forms of environmental degradation, will themselves be influenced by climate change. approaches to mapping the combined vulnerability of rural populations to climate change and nonclimate stressors, have been explored for globalization by o'brien and leichenko (71) and for hiv/aids by gommes et al. (72)
What includes mapping Leishmania environments in Europe?
the work within eden includes mapping leishmania environments in europe
What may not necessarily be explained by a single factor acting in isolation?
the changing distribution of vectors and vector-borne diseases in europe may not necessarily be explained by a single factor acting in isolation
What map the seasonal duration of risk across Europe?
modelling studies predicting the potential for transmission to humans map the seasonal duration of risk across europe
the work within eden includes mapping leishmania environments in europe, comparing endemic with non-endemic sites to identify key variables, using standardised sampling techniques to study the distribution of species of sand-fl y vectors, using climate variables to map predicted vector risk and collecting time-series data to model transmission from canine hosts. this comprehensive approach to studying human and animal populations should help to quantify the northward migration of leishmania species and their sand-fl y vectors. in turn this will help to ascertain the relative contributions made by vectorial and non-vectorial transmission (the latter perhaps mediated by tourists' companion dogs returning home from holiday). more generally, one of the lessons from the eden project has been a confi rmation that the changing distribution of vectors and vector-borne diseases in europe may not necessarily be explained by a single factor acting in isolation (for example, a change in temperature or precipitation) but rather by an interplay of factors (including changes in land use and human behaviour) that may also be infl uenced by climate change. dirofi lariasis mosquito-borne dirofi laria repens is the most frequent zoonotic infection in europe and asia. there is evidence for a growing clinical problem in northeast europe because it appears that the parasite is now able to mature to the adult stage in humans whereas previously it had not usually done so. the public health problem is often not suffi ciently appreciated but the epidemiology in europe is complex. there is evidence that infections of d. repens decreased in some areas, for example in italy during the past 20-30 years, but that d. repens is spreading throughout many other european countries and that animal and human infections, in some cases very severe, are increasing. in addition, infections of dirofi laria immitis are dramatically increasing and extending to previously unaffected areas such as switzerland. the changes in disease incidence are attributed to effects of temperature on the parasite itself, on the density of the vector population (and the emergence of ae. albopictus as a competent vector) and to changes in human exposure. recent research demonstrates that temperature dictates the development of dirofi laria larvae in the vector, with a threshold below which development will not proceed and consequently determines the seasonal occurrence of heartworm transmission in temperate latitudes. modelling studies predicting the potential for transmission to humans map the seasonal duration of risk across europe and indicate that areas formerly free of the infection are now endemic14. tackling the issues requires, again, better co-ordination between public health and veterinary health authorities, particularly to advise on the value of preventing infection in companion animals15. plague epizootics human plague, caused by the bacterium yersinia pestis has endemic foci in africa (for example, madagascar, the democratic republic of congo and tanzania), asia and america. since the beginning of the 1990s, the disease has reappeared in various countries where no cases were reported for decades. some of these countries (for example, jordan, algeria, libya) are close to europe. the threat of the re-emergence of plague foci on the european continent is unclear. more than 200 species of rodents can act as reservoirs of plague, and more than 80 species of fl eas may be vectors of the disease. climate defi nitely plays a role in the annual seasonality of plague. the potential effects of temperature rise and drought (or abundant rains) associated with climate change on fl ea survival and reproduction and on rodent prevalence are likely to be complex. although changes in the current geographical plague foci have to be expected, these changes may have opposite effects (a decrease or extension of current foci, an extinction or emergence of the disease in new areas) depending on local environmental conditions. therefore, how climate change will affect plague foci globally cannot yet be predicted but it will most likely have an impact, and this impact will vary in different parts of the world. this should be a stimulus for new research.
What did the PCMDI website offer?
on the pcmdi web site (esg.llnl.gov), all modeling centers provided simulations of 20th century climate using observed solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gas forcing
What did the 21st century offer?
twenty modeling centers provided simulations of 21st century climate with the a1b scenario, 19 with b1, and 17 with a2, for a total of 56 runs
Tell us about the antimatter of 2005.
this set of models is larger than the set available in 2005 when similar analysis was performed for the northwest (mote et al. 2005, 10 models) and california (cayan et al., 2007, 12 models but emphasizing two
on the pcmdi web site (esg.llnl.gov), all modeling centers provided simulations of 20th century climate using observed solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gas forcing. twenty modeling centers provided simulations of 21st century climate with the a1b scenario, 19 with b1, and 17 with a2, for a total of 56 runs. these form the basis for the analysis presented in most of the other chapters in this assessment report. in some cases several different model runs were provided for each scenario; we chose run 1 except as noted in appendix a. this set of models is larger than the set available in 2005 when similar analysis was performed for the northwest (mote et al. 2005, 10 models) and california (cayan et al., 2007, 12 models but emphasizing two).
Describe the model parameters?
the amplitude of eof s1 onto the model parameters as described in sect. 2.4 to determine which parameters cause this modulation of sw feedback (we exclude the entrainment coefficient from the regression because it does not vary in the region considered
Is the parameter is responsible for the amplitude of the pattern?
 this time, we observe no single parameter is responsible for the amplitude of the pattern
What is the  most significant parameters?
however, the most significant parameters are involved in determining the overall cloud cover: * critical relative humidity (+ve) the grid-box-mean relative humidity at which cloud is first formed. an increase will reduce the cloud coverage for a given relative humidity by decreasing the width of the specific humidity distribution about the grid box mean (smith et al. 1997 
we can again regress the amplitude of eof s1 onto the model parameters as described in sect. 2.4 to determine which parameters cause this modulation of sw feedback (we exclude the entrainment coefficient from the regression because it does not vary in the region considered). the results are shown in fig. 9 b. this time, we observe no single parameter is responsible for the amplitude of the pattern. however, the most significant parameters are involved in determining the overall cloud cover: * critical relative humidity (+ve) the grid-box-mean relative humidity at which cloud is first formed. an increase will reduce the cloud coverage for a given relative humidity by decreasing the width of the specific humidity distribution about the grid box mean (smith et al. 1997 ). * accretion constant (+ve) an increase in the accretion constant allows more cloud droplets to be 'swept away' by falling rain, reducing the overall cloud coverage (smith et al. 1998 ).
What have investigators begun to examine?
investigators have begun to examine the basic structure of the shallow overturning and its relation to the general circulation of the atmosphere
What would be the consequence of the STCs forming an isolated cell in the upper ocean?
if the concept that the stcs form an isolated cell in the upper ocean is correct, then these circulations connect the two largest heat sources and sinks in the pacific--the equatorial cold tongue and the region of the kuroshio off japan
continuing beyond the consideration of decadal changes, the examination of the role of the tropical ocean in long-term mean climate requires further study of stcs and their details. investigators have begun to examine the basic structure of the shallow overturning and its relation to the general circulation of the atmosphere. if the concept that the stcs form an isolated cell in the upper ocean is correct, then these circulations connect the two largest heat sources and sinks in the pacific--the equatorial cold tongue and the region of the kuroshio off japan. the heat transport by the shallow circulations has been examined by held (2001) and klinger and marotzke (2000). water in the midlatitudes approaches thermal equilibrium with the atmosphere before being subducted and sequestered away from the heat fluxes at the surface. this water is then brought back to the surface at the equator. the circuit
how is the mediterranean for cyclone activity?
also for cyclone activity the mediterranean is a transition region with an intensification on its north-western area and a reduction over the eastern area, both as synoptic signal and number of cyclone centers are concerned (figs. 6 and 7). in fig. 7 only minima deeper than 15 hpa are included
what is the justification for the area of â€‹â€‹greatest cyclone intensification?
is associate with an intensification of the mid-latitude storm track over the north-east atlantic. these changes of precipitation and cyclone activity are coherent
The passage of a cyclone is associated with what?
it is well known that the passage of a cyclone is associated with rain
also for cyclone activity the mediterranean is a transition region with an intensification on its north-western area and a reduction over the eastern area, both as synoptic signal and number of cyclone centers are concerned (figs. 6 and 7). in fig. 7 only minima deeper than 15 hpa are included. note that, however, the area where the largest intensification of cyclone activity takes place is outside the mediterranean and it is associate with an intensification of the mid-latitude storm track over the north-east atlantic. these changes of precipitation and cyclone activity are coherent. it is well known that the passage of a cyclone is associated with rain. in the mediterranean region this is often associated to the advection of humid air against the slopes surrounding the basin. in fact, it has been shown that almost all intense rain events are in coincidence with the presence of a cyclone, positioned so that its circulation advects humid air to the location where precipitation occurs (jans'a et al., 2001).
The occurrence of define clouds?
there is a tendency, common in all models, to overestimate the occurrence of low and geometrically thin clouds. the models often locate the lowest cloud base at their respective lowest vertical grid point
Describe the custom policy of clouds?
the models often locate the lowest cloud base at their respective lowest vertical grid point. thus, although a preference for low clouds is in principle supported by the observations, the apparent agreement for the lowest cloud-base heights in several models could be fortuitous
Describe cloud-based heights?
resulting from a location of the lowest model level at around the same level as where the observations indicate the most commonly occurring lowest cloud base. as a consequence, models with higher near-surface resolution consistently have lower lowest cloud-base heights
there is a tendency, common in all models, to overestimate the occurrence of low and geometrically thin clouds. the models often locate the lowest cloud base at their respective lowest vertical grid point. thus, although a preference for low clouds is in principle supported by the observations, the apparent agreement for the lowest cloud-base heights in several models could be fortuitous, resulting from a location of the lowest model level at around the same level as where the observations indicate the most commonly occurring lowest cloud base. as a consequence, models with higher near-surface resolution consistently have lower lowest cloud-base heights.
What explains directional shifts best?
directional shifts on the whole were best explained by both temperature and precipitation together
how can you describe the majority of 20th century avian elevational shifts in the Sierra Nevada mountains?
the opposing push of rising temperature driving species upslope and the pull of increased precipitation driving species downslope
(fig. 1b), the proportion of bird species shifting there was comparable to the other two regions that experienced substantial warming (fig. 2). thus, the northern sierra nevada illustrates the failure of the uniform expectation that warming alone will predict range shifts. the biggest improvement to models of elevational range shift came from incorporating precipitation changes into directional expectations. precipitation change led to expectations of downward movements that were opposed to most temperature-based expectations of upward shifts. while precipitation explained a greater proportion of shifts, directional shifts on the whole were best explained by both temperature and precipitation together (table 1, fig. 3). thus, the opposing push of rising temperature driving species upslope and the pull of increased precipitation driving species downslope aptly describes the majority of 20th century avian elevational shifts in the sierra nevada mountains.
How is the automatic delineation of the river basins done?
automatic delineation of the river basins is done by using the dem as input and the final outflow point on the drainage of the river basin as the final pour/drainage point
How the river basins have been divided?
the river basins have been divided into sub-basins using an arbitrarily selected threshold value
What does the Table 1 presents?
table 1 presents the threshold values used on the dem of the respective river basins during the process of automatic delineation. it also provides the number of subbasins the river basin got sub-divided into as a result of this threshold (which basically controls the drainage density of the artificially constructed drainage system and thereby the number of sub-basins). the total area of the river basin as obtained from the automatic delineation has also been provided
automatic delineation of the river basins is done by using the dem as input and the final outflow point on the drainage of the river basin as the final pour/drainage point. figure 1 depicts the modelled river basins (automatically delineated using gis). the river basins have been divided into sub-basins using an arbitrarily selected threshold value. table 1 presents the threshold values used on the dem of the respective river basins during the process of automatic delineation. it also provides the number of subbasins the river basin got sub-divided into as a result of this threshold (which basically controls the drainage density of the artificially constructed drainage system and thereby the number of sub-basins). the total area of the river basin as obtained from the automatic delineation has also been provided.
What is the loss calculation of mammals living in the mountains in the Great Basin of the United States?
c in the great basin of the united states has been predicted to result in the loss of between 9% and 62% of mammal species inhabiting mountain ranges in the region (mcdonald brown 1992
(McDonald Brown 1992) What does that mean?
mcdonald brown 1992). finally, assessments from other disciplines indicate that climate change may disrupt human systems and change the context in which biodiversity
c in the great basin of the united states has been predicted to result in the loss of between 9% and 62% of mammal species inhabiting mountain ranges in the region (mcdonald brown 1992). finally, assessments from other disciplines indicate that climate change may disrupt human systems and change the context in which biodiversity conservation must take place (rosenzweig et al. 2000). human agricultural systems have evolved in the current 10,000-year anomaly of a warm and stable environment and have not had to cope with rapid changes in climate. although agribusinesses in temperate countries are already investing in developing strategies for response to climate changes, many subsistence farmers will not have ready access to climate information or adaptive options. the lack of information available to small-scale producers of tropical foodstuffs, including some global commodity crops (i.e., coffee, cocoa, soy), creates the risk both of breakdown in food production and of creating social systems in which management of biodiversity may become impossible. the greatest number of subsistence farmers, and the greatest risk of social breakdown, is in the tropical countries where biodiversity is highest.
How can be  climate model bias defined?
transferring the bias concepts from statistics and forecast verification 24 25 to a climate modelling context, a climate model bias can be defined as the systematic difference between a simulated climate statistic and the corresponding real-world climate statistic
how can be a model bias derived from?
a model bias derived from model and observational data is--as the statistics it is calculated from--only an estimate of the true model bias and therefore also affected by internal climate variability 9 26 27 
how can be bias defined ?
but a bias defined this way is not uniquely defined: changing the reference period would in general change the bias. the definition of a time-independent error component is therefore itself time-dependent and arbitrary. origins in weather forecasting in nwp, the first statistical post-processing methods have been invented as early as in the late 1950s. the first operational models were too coarse to predict local weather and simulated only few prognostic variables such as pressure
transferring the bias concepts from statistics and forecast verification 24 25 to a climate modelling context, a climate model bias can be defined as the systematic difference between a simulated climate statistic and the corresponding real-world climate statistic. i will follow this definition throughout the manuscript. a model bias derived from model and observational data is--as the statistics it is calculated from--only an estimate of the true model bias and therefore also affected by internal climate variability 9 26 27 ]. as the climate system and, hence, the climate distribution change with time, also a climate model bias is in general time dependent. in other words, the simulated climate change is in general not correct. some authors, however, define a bias as the time-invariant component of a model error 28 ]. but a bias defined this way is not uniquely defined: changing the reference period would in general change the bias. the definition of a time-independent error component is therefore itself time-dependent and arbitrary. origins in weather forecasting in nwp, the first statistical post-processing methods have been invented as early as in the late 1950s. the first operational models were too coarse to predict local weather and simulated only few prognostic variables such as pressure
What did the water shortages cause?
1995 this oddity led to the suggestion that periodic water shortages caused the xeromorphic characteristics and stunted tree growth
What is UV-B hypothesis consistent with?
the uv-b hypothesis is consistent with the massenerhebung effect
What do wet CF soils lead to?
cf soils are usually wet and this may lead to the observed low transpiration of plants by impeding root respiration, which in turn might cause the unusual morphologies to arise
z flenley, 1992c thus, the uv-b hypothesis is consistent with the massenerhebung effect and can also neatly explain the disappearance of the cf at some z sites during the last glacial maximum see section 7.2 these, in combination with the explanation of cf tree stunting and the high concentration of phenolyps in the leaf litter, make the uv-b theory well worth further research. 2.2.2. other stunting hypotheses with high humidity and low insolation of the cloud forest, one expects to find moisture-loving leaves rather than leaves that resemble droughtrez sistant ones flenley, 1995 this oddity led to the suggestion that periodic water shortages caused the xeromorphic characteristics and stunted tree growth, but soil water shortages have never been observed in z a cloud forest bruijnzeel and proctor, 1995 on the other hand, cf soils are usually wet and this may lead to the observed low transpiration of plants by impeding root respiration, which in turn might cause the unusual morphologies to arise. reduced nutrient z uptake is generally seen in mountain sites korner,
What was the final model selected?
the model with the highest wi
What did they use the standard precipitation index for?
to identify extreme p years, both wet and dry extremes
What does the SPI value of a given year represent?
the probability of a 12-month precipitation amount occurring, based on the entire monthly precipitation record used
x r r  1/4  1 e 0 5 dr d 1 th with the sum of all wi equal to 1. the final model selected was the model with the highest wi (burnham and anderson 2002, johnson and omland 2004). we used the standard precipitation index (spi) to identify extreme p years, both wet and dry extremes. the spi value of a given year represents the probability of a 12-month precipitation amount occurring, based on the entire monthly precipitation record used. conceptually, the spi represents a z score, or the number of standard deviations above or below that an event is from the mean. to calculate the spi, we fit a gamma probability density function to the frequency distribution of monthly precipitation totals from 1934 to 2009 for cs01 using maximum likelihood to estimate the shape a and scale r parameters (swift and schreuder 1981). goodness of fit of the c distribution was assessed with the andersondarling test statistic a2). fitted parameters were then used to find the cumulative probability of an observed precipitation event for a given year. the cumulative
What are the clear identification about interview?
the interviewee clearly identifies here an absence of skills and techniques through which accountants can respond to climate change, indicating thereby that during this 'stage one' of reluctant engagement the dominant process was of 'problematization' - discursive framing of the problem of climate change - with the second key stage of 'rendering technical' (the 'how to do it') yet to occur
Define ICAEW's 2003?
icaew's 2003 survey of over one hundred accounting firms on social and environmental issues reinforce the interviewee's comments
What are the percentage of respondents?
63% of respondents at the time viewing environmental issues as largely irrelevant to the majority of 19 19 their clients, and 47% judging environmental issues as outside the accountant's realm (icaew 2003: 2
the interviewee clearly identifies here an absence of skills and techniques through which accountants can respond to climate change, indicating thereby that during this 'stage one' of reluctant engagement the dominant process was of 'problematization' - discursive framing of the problem of climate change - with the second key stage of 'rendering technical' (the 'how to do it') yet to occur. results from icaew's 2003 survey of over one hundred accounting firms on social and environmental issues reinforce the interviewee's comments, with 63% of respondents at the time viewing environmental issues as largely irrelevant to the majority of 19 19 their clients, and 47% judging environmental issues as outside the accountant's realm (icaew 2003: 2).
What was done to test regional diffusion?
in order to test regional diffusion against the internal determinants model of state policy adoption, i measure the percentage of neighboring states that have adopted a renewable energy portfolio standard
What did Neighboring states serve as?
neighboring states serve as a laboratory for policy experimentation
Were states that were geographically close, similar in internal characteristics?
nevertheless, many states that are geographically close also have similar internal characteristics
in order to test regional diffusion against the internal determinants model of state policy adoption, i measure the percentage of neighboring states that have adopted a renewable energy portfolio standard. neighboring states serve as a laboratory for policy experimentation. neighboring states may have many similar political, geographic, and economic characteristics and serve as a resource for states considering policy change. as the percentage of neighboring states that have adopted a policy increases, i expect that a state is more likely to adopt a policy. indeed, a simple glance at the states that have adopted rps seems to indicate regional clustering as indicated in figure 2. nevertheless, many states that are geographically close also have similar internal characteristics. statistical analysis will allow me to separate the independent effects of internal characteristics and regional diffusion.
what is the GISS Atmospheric Composition-Climate Model system composed of?
the giss atmospheric composition-climate model system is composed of the new, state-of-the-art giss modele (also called model iii) general circulation model (gcm) (21) with fully interactive chemistry and aerosols (including sulfate, mineral dust, black and organic carbon, and sea salt) that runs seamlessly from the surface up through the lower mesosphere
how The model has been designed?
the model has been designed with a flexibility to switch on all or different combinations of components of the composition to facilitate investigation of individual or collective interactions between the components
The model system is able to what?
the model system is able to capture not only the magnitude and spatial distributions of important trace gases in the atmosphere but also of surface deposition fluxes and reproduces observations (north american, european, and asian) with a realism comparable with other state-of-the-art composition models worldwide in this regard (22). modele offers flexible vertical and horizontal resolution
the giss atmospheric composition-climate model system is composed of the new, state-of-the-art giss modele (also called model iii) general circulation model (gcm) (21) with fully interactive chemistry and aerosols (including sulfate, mineral dust, black and organic carbon, and sea salt) that runs seamlessly from the surface up through the lower mesosphere. the model has been designed with a flexibility to switch on all or different combinations of components of the composition to facilitate investigation of individual or collective interactions between the components. the model system is able to capture not only the magnitude and spatial distributions of important trace gases in the atmosphere but also of surface deposition fluxes and reproduces observations (north american, european, and asian) with a realism comparable with other state-of-the-art composition models worldwide in this regard (22). modele offers flexible vertical and horizontal resolution
What has an impact over north pacific and subcontinent?
enso exhibits a remarkable impact on the intensity and position of the westerly jet over the north pacific, the asian monsoon, and precipitation and surface conditions over the asian subcontinent
Which is dependent on atmospheric circulation patterns?
trans-pacific transport of soil dust has been shown to be dependent on atmospheric circulation patterns
What shows the routes and direction of Asian dust?
the zonal transport flux indicates the major transport routes and direction of asian dust across the pacific
enso exhibits a remarkable impact on the intensity and position of the westerly jet over the north pacific, the asian monsoon, and precipitation and surface conditions over the asian subcontinent (wang et al. 2000). these factors are all closely associated with asian dust production, deposition, and transport. trans-pacific transport of soil dust has been shown to be dependent on atmospheric circulation patterns (zhao et al. 2003). an analysis of the variability of the 44-yr zonal transport flux, that is, concentrations multiplied by westerly/ easterly wind speeds, was conducted for eight typical el nino and eight la nina years. the zonal transport flux indicates the major transport routes and direction of asian dust across the pacific. most trans-pacific transport of asian dust aerosol occurs in the middle troposphere between 3 and 10 km (part i). figure 6 shows the averaged dust transport flux (filled contours) for el nino (fig. 6a) and la nina (fig. 6b) years integrated from 3 to 10 km. on the same plot, their anomalies (dashed contour lines) from the 44-yr-averaged values are also superimposed. the sharp difference between el nino and la nina years is the center of the transport path. during el nino years, trans-pacific transport is centered at 45degn, while during la nina years it is
what does a high-rise building consists of?
a high-rise building usually consists of a shaft and elevators surrounded by living units on each storey
what are the disavantages of an high-rise building?
the properties of openings in the south (sun: solar gain) and north (cold wind: infiltration) and the very limited opportunities for the floor plans, with restricted walk distances to fire exits and access shafts, drastically reduce the organizational possibilities of the plan. such are the conditions of a high-rise form that, because of its very height, it can severely disadvantage people who suffer from vertigo
what is vertigo?
a recognized condition in which individuals are psychologically frightened of being ' too high 
a high-rise building usually consists of a shaft and elevators surrounded by living units on each storey. the properties of openings in the south (sun: solar gain) and north (cold wind: infiltration) and the very limited opportunities for the floor plans, with restricted walk distances to fire exits and access shafts, drastically reduce the organizational possibilities of the plan. such are the conditions of a high-rise form that, because of its very height, it can severely disadvantage people who suffer from vertigo, a recognized condition in which individuals are psychologically frightened of being ' too high ' the enclosed access conditions for tall buildings may also more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What does the conjuction of the five aforementioned REOFs explain?
together, the first 5 (10) reofs explain 1/3 (1/2) of the monthly-mean subseasonal variance
How can one explain each of the five leading REOFs?
the first reof bears a striking resemblance to the lag -zero one-point correlation map shown in the middle panels of figure 1. the second reof is centered on the north pacific region linking asia with north america, while the third is centered over the north atlantic, linking north america and europe. the fourth reof is centered over north america and is approximately in quadrature with the third, while the fifth reof spans the asian continent where it is for the most part embedded in the asian jet extending from europe to the north american continent
Why are rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOFs) useful in this study?
our focus is on the mature stationary rossby waves, so reofs should provide a reasonable set of basis functions for isolating any preferred regional development of these waves
we next summarize the subseasonal 250mb v-wind variability using rotated empirical orthogonal functions (reofs, richmond 1986). our focus is on the mature stationary rossby waves, so reofs should provide a reasonable set of basis functions for isolating any preferred regional development of these waves. figure 3 shows the five leading reofs. the first reof bears a striking resemblance to the lag -zero one-point correlation map shown in the middle panels of figure 1. the second reof is centered on the north pacific region linking asia with north america, while the third is centered over the north atlantic, linking north america and europe. the fourth reof is centered over north america and is approximately in quadrature with the third, while the fifth reof spans the asian continent where it is for the most part embedded in the asian jet extending from europe to the north american continent. this reof bears some resemblance to the interannual cgt found by ding and wang (2004) and, as we shall see in fig. 7, also appears to have an interannual component. together, the first 5 (10) reofs explain 1/3 (1/2) of the monthly-mean subseasonal variance.
What have coupled from southwest Greenland  neodymium-142 excesses (from decay of now-extinct samarium-146; half-life, 103 million years) and neodymium-143 excesses (from decay of samarium-147; half-life, 106 billion years)?
the oldest rocks -- 3.85 billion years old -- from southwest greenland have coupled neodymium-142 excesses (from decay of now-extinct samarium-146; half-life, 103 million years) and neodymium-143 excesses (from decay of samarium-147; half-life, 106 billion years
What track the subsequent incomplete remixing of very-early-formed mantle chemical domains?
temporal variations in142nd signatures track the subsequent incomplete remixing of very-early-formed mantle chemical domains
the oldest rocks -- 3.85 billion years old -- from southwest greenland have coupled neodymium-142 excesses (from decay of now-extinct samarium-146; half-life, 103 million years) and neodymium-143 excesses (from decay of samarium-147; half-life, 106 billion years), relative to chondritic meteorites, that directly date the formation of chemically distinct silicate reservoirs in the first 30 million to 75 million years of earth history. the differences in142nd signatures of coeval rocks from the two most extensive crustal relicts more than 3.6 billion years old, in western australia and southwest greenland, reveal earlyformed large-scale chemical heterogeneities in earth ' s mantle that persisted for at least the first billion years of earth history. temporal variations in142nd signatures track the subsequent incomplete remixing of very-early-formed mantle chemical domains.
What is the first constitutional challenge for population growth?
first, acknowledgment by governments in developing countries and in the donor community, by intergovernmental and nongovernmental institutions, civil society groups, philanthropic foundations, the women's health movement, and health-care providers that population growth is important in climate change and that, addressing it through global reinvestment in voluntary family planning services, is both crucial and in agreement with the requests of developing countries themselves
What is the second constitutional challenge for population growth?
second, all family-planning programmes require political commitment, clear management and supervision, sound logistics, and competent staff beyond these basic requirements, it is clear that success in family planning depends on dismantling the barriers to contraception
What is the third constitutional challenge for population growth?
third, policy should be evidence based, and services should take a life-span approach, aiming to meet the needs of women throughout their reproductive lives, through good sex education, contraceptive services, and, where the law permits, safe abortion services that respect and protect the rights of people seeking to access those services
for population growth, there are three major institutional challenges. first, acknowledgment by governments in developing countries and in the donor community, by intergovernmental and nongovernmental institutions, civil society groups, philanthropic foundations, the women's health movement, and health-care providers that population growth is important in climate change and that, addressing it through global reinvestment in voluntary family planning services, is both crucial and in agreement with the requests of developing countries themselves. second, all family-planning programmes require political commitment, clear management and supervision, sound logistics, and competent staff beyond these basic requirements, it is clear that success in family planning depends on dismantling the barriers to contraception. this means considering mobile services, in addition to static clinics, commercial outlets, and social marketing schemes to suit local requirements. equally important is the removal of conservative (attitudinal) barriers, combined with education of lawyers, health-care providers, and religious leaders about the importance of reproductive health. third, policy should be evidence based, and services should take a life-span approach, aiming to meet the needs of women throughout their reproductive lives, through good sex education, contraceptive services, and, where the law permits, safe abortion services that respect and protect the rights of people seeking to access those services. asserting that population issues are central to adaptive responses to climate change is not about blaming the victim. lower fertility and smaller families will accelerate the escape from poverty,172-174 and thus reduce the background rates of climate-change-related mortality. population is the denominator of everything we do. increases in population size, whether through migration or fertility, in regions vulnerable to the eff ects of climate change (such as coastal areas) means that
What does the following discussion aim to flag up?
the discussion that follows aims to flag some important issues about the gender differentiated impacts of climate change
What relation exists in all societies?
the relations between socio-economic class and emissions exist in all societies but the absolute values can differ
What do the findings lead us to recognize?
the findings lead to the recognition of existing linkages between climate change and the millennium development goals as depicted by the annex ii to this paper
the discussion that follows aims to flag some important issues about the gender differentiated impacts of climate change. the collection of sex disaggregated quantitative data is incomplete at this time. however, there exists some data (both qualitative and quantitative) which at this stage permits us to attempt a discussion and to highlight some of the gendered aspects of climate change which will require rigorous research and follow-up. the relations between socio-economic class and emissions exist in all societies but the absolute values can differ. recent studies devoted to adaptation to climate change highlight the role that adaptation policies could have in terms of poverty eradication, through the reduction of the exposure of vulnerable people. the findings lead to the recognition of existing linkages between climate change and the millennium development goals as depicted by the annex ii to this paper.28 however, experience from disaster analysis shows that "disaster vulnerability
How many caveats apply which may be addressed in future research?
several
What is the first step?
our analysis does not cover a further commitment period after 2012 that might influence behavior in the first commitment
What does Section 5 concludes?
analytical framework and baseline calibration carbon abatement policies not only cause direct adjustments on fossil fuel markets, but they produce indirect spillovers to other markets that, in turn, feed back to the economy. general
nevertheless, several caveats apply which may be addressed in future research once the relevant information and data is available: first, our analysis does not cover a further commitment period after 2012 that might influence behavior in the first commitment (e.g. through banking of emission permits). second, we assume for the case of u.s. withdrawal that the u.s. will not undertake any domestic policies to cut ghg emissions. third, no other greenhouse gas besides co2 is incorporated in our analysis. the remainder of the paper is organized as follows. section 2 provides a brief nontechnical summary of the underlying modeling framework. section 3 entails a description of the policy scenarios. section 4 presents the interpretation of simulation results. section 5 concludes. 2. analytical framework and baseline calibration carbon abatement policies not only cause direct adjustments on fossil fuel markets, but they produce indirect spillovers to other markets that, in turn, feed back to the economy. general
The previous section that different models of geophysical flows have a specific mathematical structure?
they are hamiltonian systems, and have an infinite number of conserved quantities the casimirs the previous section has shown how one could take advantage of these features and construct theoretically rich representation of the dynamics and provide proposals for constructing new numerical codes of gfd flows
Describe the GFD flows?
this section goes in the direction of constructing a probabilistic description of gfd flows, basically taking the point of view that due to the large amount of degrees of freedom involved, one can consider the state of the atmosphere and the ocean as random variables
What is equilibrium statistical?
most of the standard applications of equilibrium statistical mechanics deal with dynamics on 9 a finite dimensional phase space (e.g., a gas with a finite number of molecules), with a finite number of dynamical invariants (often just the energy
we have seen in the previous section that different models of geophysical flows have a specific mathematical structure: they are hamiltonian systems, and have an infinite number of conserved quantities the casimirs the previous section has shown how one could take advantage of these features and construct theoretically rich representation of the dynamics and provide proposals for constructing new numerical codes of gfd flows. this section goes in the direction of constructing a probabilistic description of gfd flows, basically taking the point of view that due to the large amount of degrees of freedom involved, one can consider the state of the atmosphere and the ocean as random variables. here we shall review the progress that has been made by using the simplest class of possible probability distributions: the equilibrium distributions which depend only on the conserved quantities. however, most of the standard applications of equilibrium statistical mechanics deal with dynamics on 9 a finite dimensional phase space (e.g., a gas with a finite number of molecules), with a finite number of dynamical invariants (often just the energy). the equations describing the dynamics of geophysical flows violate both these constraints. several solutions have thus been proposed: they are reviewed briefly in the next sections, going from the main fundamental ideas to selected geophysical applications.
What is analyzed in this paper?
number of professional accountancy organisation reports and drawn on interviews to illustrate how climate change has been framed as a particular type of problem by the accounting profession, with strong relevance for their skills and expertise
What is Climate change seen as?
climate change is seen as a corporate problem
How is climate change solvable?
with careful application of existing 31 31 accounting approaches and techniques
in this paper we have analysed a number of professional accountancy organisation reports and drawn on interviews to illustrate how climate change has been framed as a particular type of problem by the accounting profession, with strong relevance for their skills and expertise. to date the dominant framing of the problem (and solutions) has been narrow: climate change is seen as a corporate problem, which is solvable with careful application of existing 31 31 accounting approaches and techniques. we have shown how the accounting profession was initially rather slow to respond to the problem of climate change, with no significant engagement until the mid-2000s (albeit with a few notable exceptions - e.g. cica and icaew). but the profession is now attempting, through the work of a number of accounting professional bodies, to rectify the situation and 'catch up', positioning accountants as relevant, indeed crucial, actors in governing carbon.
Do studies in the developed and developing world present similar themes that influence the success of putting adaptation onto the policy agenda?
it is clear that the studies carried out in the developed and the developing world present similar themes that influence the success of putting adaptation onto the policy agenda
What three things were emphasized?
the presence of a strong leader or a committed champion of the adaptation agenda, access to financial and human resources, as well as access to, or possibility to develop, a good quality evidence base were also emphasised
Is awareness of the adaptiation issue among the public important?
awareness of the adaptation issue among general public and within the organisation were seen as important
it is clear that the studies carried out in the developed and the developing world present similar themes that influence the success of putting adaptation onto the policy agenda. both collaboration with external stakeholders and internal, cross-departmental collaboration were seen as crucial. the presence of a strong leader or a committed champion of the adaptation agenda, access to financial and human resources, as well as access to, or possibility to develop, a good quality evidence base were also emphasised. awareness of the adaptation issue among general public and within the organisation were seen as important, as this will influence whether adaptation is perceived as a priority issue. also the presence of guidance from the state, or existence of a policy framework at
What does the Climate-FVS modify?
climate-fvs modifies the maximum carrying capacity computed by fvs by calculating a proportional change from two weighted average maximum densities, using the fvs maximum densities for all species in the fia database
When does mortality also occur?
mortality also occurs from density-dependent effects that are simulated in fvs
How are changes in maximum stand densities computed?
changes in these maximum stand densities are computed over time by calculating a weighted average maximum density among the species growing in the stand
mortality also occurs from density-dependent effects that are simulated in fvs (see crookston and dixon, 2005 and influenced by climate, as follows. 2.4.2. carrying capacity in fvs, carrying capacity is measured as a stand maximum basal area and as a maximum stand density index reineke, 1933 )--an algorithm converts one to the other so that both are always defined. changes in these maximum stand densities are computed over time by calculating a weighted average maximum density among the species growing in the stand. each species is given a default maximum density used in this calculation (users can modify default values). weights used in the calculation of the weighted average are the basal areas of the species present. this weighted average establishes the stand maximum in effect at a given point in simulated time. climate-fvs modifies the maximum carrying capacity computed by fvs by calculating a proportional change from two weighted average maximum densities, using the fvs maximum densities for all species in the fia database. for the first of the two values, denoted d1, the weights equal the species viability scores at the beginning of the simulation period. for the second value, d2, the weights are the viability scores computed in simulated time. as for computing s (section 2.2 ), d1 is always greater than zero simply because fvs is initiated with data from sites that can support forests. the proportional change in carrying capacity is r d2/ d1, and maximum density in simulated time is calculated from the
What does the baseline simulation acts as?
the baseline simulation acts as a surrogate for the real system under current climate conditions
In the baseline simulation the VIC model was forced with observed temperature and precipitation: it allowed a comparison, which one?
this allowed a comparison between modeled and observed hydrographs to ensure that the mhm can capture and replicate the important hydrological processes
Whose results from a previous work were used for the baseline simulations?
results from previous work by nijssen et al. (2001a,b) were used for the baseline simulations
the baseline simulation acts as a surrogate for the real system under current climate conditions. in the baseline simulation the vic model was forced with observed temperature and precipitation. this allowed a comparison between modeled and observed hydrographs to ensure that the mhm can capture and replicate the important hydrological processes. subsequently, all changes in hydrological fluxes and storages were calculated relative to this baseline simulation. results from previous work by nijssen et al. (2001a,b) were used for the baseline simulations. in nijssen et al. (2001b), a gridded data set of daily meteorological model forcings for the period 1979-1993 was developed for global land areas (excluding greenland and antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 2*x 2*. daily precipitation and 154 bart nijssen et al.
In which Himalaya a substantial proportion of the annual precipitation falls as sniow.
in the greater himalayas, a substantial proportion of the annual precipitation falls as snow, particularly at high altitude (above 3000m
What is the total area of the Himalayan range.
the himalayan range alone has a total area of 35,110 sq.km of glacier and ice cover, with a total ice reserve of 3,735 cu.km (table 3
in the greater himalayas, a substantial proportion of the annual precipitation falls as snow, particularly at high altitude (above 3000m). in the higher reaches, snowfall builds up from year to year to form glaciers that provide long-term reservoirs of water stored as ice. the high himalayan and inner asian ranges have the most highly glaciated areas outside the polar region, although accurate data are lacking (dyurgerov and meier 2005). several of the largest concentrations of glaciers are found in the midand low latitudes, covering a total area of 112,767 sq.km (table 2). the himalayan range alone has a total area of 35,110 sq.km of glacier and ice cover, with a total ice reserve of 3,735 cu.km (table 3). climate controls river fl ow and glacier mass balance in the himalayan region, and these vary considerably from west to east. the monsoon from the bay of bengal, further developed in the indian subcontinent, produces heavy precipitation - predominantly in the southeast
What were the findings of Codjoe and Owusu (2011) about the communities in Ghana?
at the local level, codjoe and owusu (2011) studied communities in ghana and showed how extreme climatic events affect rural food production, transportation, processing and storage
According to Codjoe and Owusu how could the food security in this region  be enhanced?
food security in this region could be enhanced by increasing farm-based storage facilities; improving the transportation system, especially feeder roads that link food production areas and major markets; providing farmers with early warning systems; extending credit to farmers; and the use of supplementary irrigation
How do some cultural practices, particularly those that prohibit the consumption of certain foods affect people?
some cultural practices, particularly those that prohibit the consumption of certain foods, may reduce the resilience of some individuals and ethnic groups to food system disruptions
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. at the local level, codjoe and owusu (2011) studied communities in ghana and showed how extreme climatic events affect rural food production, transportation, processing and storage. food security in this region could be enhanced by increasing farm-based storage facilities; improving the transportation system, especially feeder roads that link food production areas and major markets; providing farmers with early warning systems; extending credit to farmers; and the use of supplementary irrigation. some cultural practices, particularly those that prohibit the consumption of certain foods, may reduce the resilience of some individuals and ethnic groups to food system disruptions.
Do southern locations experience longer or less long exposures at low tides?
in particular, some northern sites experience longer exposures to stressful midday low tides than southern sites
What basis do the differences in the upper thermal limits have?
hese differences in upper thermal limits likely have a genetic basis and are consistent with a mosaic of potential thermal stress in rocky intertidal habitats along the northeastern pacific coast
What can act as a selective force to influence the physiology of inter-sea species?
persistent regional differences in tidal regimes, climate, and other environmental factors may act as selective forces that influence the physiology of intertidal species with broad latitudinal ranges
although climate envelope models are used increasingly to predict the response of species to climate change, these models may perform poorly when species are comprised of locally adapted populations with differing environmental tolerances. despite this concern, little is known about how tolerance traits vary across a species' geographic range. in this study, we tested whether the upper thermal limits of a direct-developing intertidal snail, nucella canaliculata varied among populations distributed along the northeastern pacific coast. snails from 7 sites in central california, northern california, and oregon (usa) were reared through 2 generations in a common laboratory environment to minimize the potential influence of field acclimatization and other non-genetic effects. laboratory assays of acute lethal temperature tolerance (lt50) indicated that newly hatched n. canaliculata from central california were less heat tolerant than their conspecifics from oregon. these differences in upper thermal limits likely have a genetic basis and are consistent with a mosaic of potential thermal stress in rocky intertidal habitats along the northeastern pacific coast. in particular, some northern sites experience longer exposures to stressful midday low tides than southern sites, due to variation among regions in the timing of low tides. persistent regional differences in tidal regimes, climate, and other environmental factors may act as selective forces that influence the physiology of intertidal species with broad latitudinal ranges. the resulting geographic distribution of thermally tolerant genotypes may be spatially complex, and may thus alter predictions regarding the effects of climate change on local extinctions and species' geographic range shifts. key words: thermal tolerance * thermal stress * biogeography * local adaptation * climate change * nucella * rocky intertidal habitats
What increase was focus groups worried about?
ultimately, however, focus group participants worried that they may not be able to deal with any increase in the frequency of extreme weather events of the kind projected for southern africa by stige et al
Has the element of reciprocity in food sharing become more frequent or rarer over time?
the element of reciprocity in food sharing has become ever rarer over time
List some ways farmers deal with floods and droughts?
these responses are of use for floods as well as droughts, farmers deal much better with the latter than the former
sharing food with family and neighbours.  selling cattle.  hunting wild animals.  increasing consumption of hardier wild resources such as leaves.  digging wells for water.  government assistance post independence (from south africa in 1990).  purchasing food to compensate for a shortfall. whilst many of these responses are of use for floods as well as droughts, farmers deal much better with the latter than the former. many of these responses have changed over time. game is no longer available for hunting. digging wells for drinking water is less necessary because more boreholes are available. the element of reciprocity in food sharing has become ever rarer over time. focus group participants identified an increased dependency on state aid, lowering peoples' capacity and willingness to assist neighbours. yet farming in north-central namibia is in many ways premised on the possibility of preparation for and recovery from the toughest years and, thereby geared more toward medium-to-long-term resilience than short-term coping capacity. even in good years, surpluses are not sold at market, but stored in eshisha (grain storage baskets), to compensate for poor harvests. the same logic influences farmers' tendencytokeeplivestockherds and sellthemonlyattimes of distress, if they seem unlikely survive the dry season. whilst storage over sale is an idea unlikely to muster support within the world bank as an agricultural development strategy, from an adaptation standpoint, it makes farmers in omufitugwanauyala and oshikulufitu less prone to 'double exposure' - that is, to globalisation and climate impacts simultaneously. a growing body of literature has argued that structural adjustment and trade liberalisation policies have weakened agricultural capacity in developing countries (i.e. bryceson, 2004 ). simultaneously, the push to sell produce on international markets has tied livelihoods into highly volatile international food prices, and led farmers to abandon crops better-adapted to local conditions for cash crops eakin, 2005; leichenko and o'brien, 2008 ). ultimately, however, focus group participants worried that they may not be able to deal with any increase in the frequency of extreme weather events of the kind projected for southern africa by stige et al. (2006) focus group participants in both villages were
Why do many studies use the import flows of intermediate goods or FDI as a proxy variable for international transfer?
 because major transmission channels of knowledge across countries include international trade and foreign direct investments (fdi), many studies use the import flows of intermediate goods or fdi as a proxy variable for international transfer
What is allowed due to the easy availability of data on trade and FDI from a large number of countries?
data on trade and fdi are easily available from a large number of countries, thereby allowing a very broad geographical coverage
What nature of the data prevents their use in measuring the flows?
however, such data are highly aggregated, which prevents their use in measuring the flows
in the empirical literature, scholars have proposed a number of solutions for the measurement of international technology transfers. because major transmission channels of knowledge across countries include international trade and foreign direct investments (fdi), many studies use the import flows of intermediate goods or fdi as a proxy variable for international transfer (for example, coe and helpman, 1995; lichtenberg and van pottelsberghe de la potterie, 2001). data on trade and fdi are easily available from a large number of countries, thereby allowing a very broad geographical coverage. however, such data are highly aggregated, which prevents their use in measuring the flows
Tell me about the ITW interruption?
idw is the simplest of the six interpolation techniques. it takes advantage of the well-known principle that as the distance between a station and a location to be interpolated increases, the influence of that station on the interpolated value is lowered (renka, 1984; dodson and marks, 1997
What dimensional system does ITW have?
idw is a two-dimensional method, and alone does not explicitly account for any of the climatic forcing factors listed in table iv. however, even sophisticated interpolation schemes incorporate some form of idw algorithm
Say CAI Interim Plans?
idw is also used quite often to interpolate deviations from a long-term mean in cai interpolation schemes (see following text). through their research with idw-based algorithms, willmott et al (1985b) demonstrated that distances across the earth's surface should be calculated in spherical, rather than planar coordinates, to avoid errors and distortions in the
idw is the simplest of the six interpolation techniques. it takes advantage of the well-known principle that as the distance between a station and a location to be interpolated increases, the influence of that station on the interpolated value is lowered (renka, 1984; dodson and marks, 1997). idw is a two-dimensional method, and alone does not explicitly account for any of the climatic forcing factors listed in table iv. however, even sophisticated interpolation schemes incorporate some form of idw algorithm. idw is also used quite often to interpolate deviations from a long-term mean in cai interpolation schemes (see following text). through their research with idw-based algorithms, willmott et al (1985b) demonstrated that distances across the earth's surface should be calculated in spherical, rather than planar coordinates, to avoid errors and distortions in the
What creates a  reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor ?
methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor
How does the Methane frozen hydrate floating in ocean affect the atmosphere?
this reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at earth surface conditions. the hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released 5 to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric co2
Does the study show that hydrate methane release is alarming ? cite reasons.
however most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic 10 warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. the carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of gton c, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands 15 of years, chronic rather than catastrophic. the potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. on geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we 20 do by fossil fuel combustion. 994
methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor and associated with permafrost soils. this reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at earth surface conditions. the hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released 5 to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric co2. hydrates are releasing methane to the atmosphere today in response to anthropogenic warming, for example along the arctic coastline of siberia. however most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic 10 warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. the carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of gton c, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands 15 of years, chronic rather than catastrophic. the potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. on geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we 20 do by fossil fuel combustion. 994
What did Klein Tank and Konnen conclude?
klein tank and konnen (2003) arrived at a similar conclusion, namely that the cold extremes have been decreasing and the warm extremes increasing during the last quarter of the 20th century
What did Yan et al conclude about changes in temperature over time?
changes in extreme temperatures over long time series have been described by yan et al. (2002) using data from ten stations in europe and china. they conclude that cold extremes have been decreasing and warm extremes increasing during recent decades, but also that there have been earlier changes in these extremes
Have there been changes in climate earlier than these extremes?
they conclude that cold extremes have been decreasing and warm extremes increasing during recent decades, but also that there have been earlier changes in these extremes
changes in extreme temperatures over long time series have been described by yan et al. (2002) using data from ten stations in europe and china. they conclude that cold extremes have been decreasing and warm extremes increasing during recent decades, but also that there have been earlier changes in these extremes. in an analysis of more than 100 european station records for the second half of the 20th century, klein tank and konnen (2003) arrived at a similar conclusion, namely that the cold extremes have been decreasing and the warm extremes increasing during the last quarter of the 20th century. 4 4 here we relate the simulated changes not just to model and inter-model variability but also to the natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records.
What is the experience of Dr Thompson?
dr. thomson has over 20 years experience in operational research for infectious-disease control (mainly in africa
Where Dr Thompson worked?
dr. thomson has over 20 years experience in operational research for infectious-disease control (mainly in africa
What were the diseases that Dr Thompson treated?
dr. thomson has over 20 years experience in operational research for infectious-disease control (mainly in africa): onchocerciasis, malaria, kala azar, meningococcal meningitis
dr. thomson has over 20 years experience in operational research for infectious-disease control (mainly in africa): onchocerciasis, malaria, kala azar, meningococcal meningitis. she has focused on the potential value of climate and environmental driven models, which can be used to create risk maps and early warning systems for epidemics. she is a frequent contributor to the who roll back malaria technical support network for prevention and control of malaria epidemics, a member of the wmo-ccl expert team 3.8 on health-related climate indices and their use in early warning systems and is lead author, millennium ecosystem assessment in the condition working group chapter 16 on infectious disease.
According to the paragraph, what will bring society back to robust buildings?
the economic and environmental context, around the glass houses, the shards and the blobs, is changing rapidly, and it is this need to respond to these changes that will drive society back to demanding robust buildings
What is an example of a pragmatic building designer?
becoming more pragmatic building designers who are specialist in, for example, designing low-energy and low-impact buildings
How many years of university education will students have to pay for themselves?
who will increasingly have to pay for five years of their university education themselves
the economic and environmental context, around the glass houses, the shards and the blobs, is changing rapidly, and it is this need to respond to these changes that will drive society back to demanding robust buildings rather than ' architectural entertainment ' because the former are capable of adapting to those changes while the latter are not. in light of the importance of future-proofing our buildings and cities against climate change the time may well have come to split architectural education into two distinct arms, one for those primarily interested in learning graphic and digital skills and another for those interested in becoming more pragmatic building designers who are specialist in, for example, designing low-energy and low-impact buildings. then it would be clear to students, who will increasingly have to pay for five years of their university education themselves, exactly what they are getting for their money.
Why were 22 genotypes in groundnut screened?
in groundnut, craufurd et al. (2003) screened 22 genotypes using controlled environments in order to identify genotypes that were tolerant or sensitive to high temperature stress at flowering or at microsporogenesis
Why does the study suggest that temperature extremes are important?
the results from this study suggest that temperature extremes could be an important determinant of the yield of annual crops, specifically in parts of northern and southern india
What change causes increases in diurnal temperature range?
increases in maximum temperature between the two time periods studied are associated with increases in the diurnal temperature range and hence in vpd
genotypic differences in tolerance to high temperature stress have been documented in many annual crops wheeler et al., 2000 ). in groundnut, craufurd et al. (2003) screened 22 genotypes using controlled environments in order to identify genotypes that were tolerant or sensitive to high temperature stress at flowering or at microsporogenesis (3 days before flowering). they listed 6 groundnut genotypes, of diverse origin, that were heat tolerant at these stages. the modelling approach demonstrated in the current study can be used with the detailed information from such genotype screens in order to properly investigate the extent of genotypic adaptation to high temperature stress associated with climate change within current crop germplasm. equally, the potential for crop adaptation to climate change through breeding for improved tolerance to high temperatures can be explored in a robust manner within this modelling framework. the relative importance of mean and extremes of temperature varies geographically, and depends upon the genotypic parameters (section 4 ). the impact on yield of changes in duration resulting from seasonal mean temperature changes can have a greater magnitude than that of high temperature stress fig. 9 and its effects can be more widespread fig. 3 ). where the optimal temperature for development is exceeded the resulting increase in duration can mitigate and even counteract the negative impacts of reproductive temperature threshold exceedance on yield, provided that there is sufficient water for the crop to benefit from the extended duration. the magnitude and sign of this effect depends on the degree of tolerance of the crop to temperature extremes; hence yields are particularly threatened when water availability and/or mean temperature shorten the duration of a crop which experiences and is sensitive to high temperatures during flowering. the degree of sensitivity determines the response of not only mean yields, but also the magnitude of interannual variability fig. 9 ). increases in maximum temperature between the two time periods studied are associated with increases in the diurnal temperature range and hence in vpd (section 3.2 ). due to the high temperatures involved, the regions where this occurs will tend to be co-located with regions where reproductive temperature thresholds are being exceeded. hence, as well as the impact of mean temperatures on the rate of development, which are linear for t topt, there is a non-linear response to diurnal temperature amplitude, of the kind described by porter and semenov (2005) 6. conclusions methods like those employed here can be used to quantify the impact of high temperature threshold exceedance on crops. the results from this study suggest that temperature extremes could be an important determinant of the yield of annual crops, specifically in parts of northern and southern india. changes in mean temperature, through their impact on development rates, may have a more
What is ecological process?
specific health outcomes are determined by different exposure pathways and multiple other social and behavioral factors, some of which are also affected by climate (figure 1). most research to date has focused on understanding how climate drivers affect physical and ecological processes that act as key exposure pathways for pathogens and toxins, as shown by the arrow moving from the top to the middle box in figure 1
What are specific health outcomes?
specific health outcomes are determined by different exposure pathways and multiple other social and behavioral factors, some of which are also affected by climate (figure 1). most research to date has focused on understanding how climate drivers affect physical and ecological processes that act as key exposure pathways for pathogens and toxins, as shown by the arrow moving from the top to the middle box in figure 1
What is different eposure?
specific health outcomes are determined by different exposure pathways and multiple other social and behavioral factors, some of which are also affected by climate (figure 1). most research to date has focused on understanding how climate drivers affect physical and ecological processes that act as key exposure pathways for pathogens and toxins, as shown by the arrow moving from the top to the middle box in figure 1
specific health outcomes are determined by different exposure pathways and multiple other social and behavioral factors, some of which are also affected by climate (figure 1). most research to date has focused on understanding how climate drivers affect physical and ecological processes that act as key exposure pathways for pathogens and toxins, as shown by the arrow moving from the top to the middle box in figure 1. there is currently less information and fewer methods with which to measure actual human exposure and incidence of illness based on those physical and ecological metrics (arrow moving from middle to bottom box in figure 1). thus, it is often not possible to quantitatively project future health outcomes from waterrelated illnesses under climate change (bottom box in figure 1). this chapter covers health risks associated with changes in natural marine, coastal, and freshwater systems and water infrastructure for drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater legionella in aerosolized water is covered in ch. 3: air quality impacts). this chapter also includes fish and shellfish illnesses associated with the waters in which they grow and which are affected by the same climate factors that affect drinking and recreational waters (impacts related to handling and postharvest processing of seafood are covered in ch. 7: food safety). the framing of this chapter addresses sources of contaminations, exposure pathways, and health outcomes when available. based on the available data and research, many of the examples are regionally focused and make evident that the impact of climate change on water-related illness is inherently regional. table 1 lists various health outcomes that can result from exposure to agents of water-related illness as well as key climate-related changes affecting their occurrence. whether or not illness results from exposure to contaminated water, fish, or shellfish is dependent on a complex set of factors, including human behavior and social determinants of health that may affect a person's exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (figure 1; see also ch. 1: and table 1. climate sensitive agents of water related illness pathogen or toxin producer exposure pathway selected health outcomes symptoms major climate correlation or driver (strongest driver(s) listed first)
Where are anomalously wet conditions?
northern europe
Where are dry conditions?
iberian peninsula and southeastern europe
Globally what is reduced as a result of circulation changes?
mean precipitation
independent precipitation reconstructions pauling et al. 2006] indicate a tendency to anomalously wet conditions over northern europe and dry conditions over the iberian peninsula and southeastern europe in the winter of year 0 (not shown) and 1 (figure 2d) following 10 eruptions (1769-2000). we suggest that this pattern is consistent with the aforementioned winter circulation anomalies following volcanic eruptions enhancing the advection of maritime air from the north atlantic towards northern europe. this indicates, that the precipitation response on regional and seasonal scale is complex and strongly dependent on circulation changes, while at global scale mean precipitation is reduced as a consequence of lower shortwave radiation [e.g., gillett et al. 2004].
What are the global mean surface temperatures compared to today?
global mean annual surface temperatures (mat) are estimated to have been 2 to 3oc higher during the piacenzian (3.6-2.58 ma) than today
Where did the warm early Pliocene gave way to late Piacenzian cooling?
in the southern ocean
When was the Pliocene Era?
5.33 - 2.58 million years ago
the pliocene epoch, 5.33 - 2.58 million years ago (ma), was a generally warmer and wetter interval with atmospheric co2-concentrations at or slightly above modern levels. this paper provides an overview of pliocene vegetation, sea surface temperatures and climate modelling outcomes. most prominent changes in pliocene biome distribution compared to today include a northwards shift of temperate and boreal vegetation zones in response to a warmer and wetter climate as well as an expansion of tropical savannas and forests at the expense of deserts. modelling experiments using the hadley centre climate model identified significantly higher pliocene sea surface temperatures at the high-latitudes with only minor warming predicted in the tropics. global mean annual surface temperatures (mat) are estimated to have been 2 to 3oc higher during the piacenzian (3.6-2.58 ma) than today with a reduced equator to pole gradient. the marine realm during the pliocene was characterised by a reconfiguration of ocean gateways, particularly the narrowing of the indonesian seaway and closure of the central american isthmus, which produced essentially a modern pattern of ocean circulation. in the southern ocean a warm early pliocene gave way to late piacenzian cooling. proxy data indicate a reduced east to west sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical pacific during the pliocene warmth. the pliocene is one of the most intensively studied geological intervals of the pre-quaternary. no other warm period in the geological past yields such a unique combination of near modern atmospheric co2concentrations, palaeogeography and palaeobiology. however, this paper also identifies data gaps and shortcomings in the reconstruction of pliocene environments using proxy data and climate models on which future research should focus.
Who was the responsability in West Berlin to provide Power generation and heat?
it was primarily the responsibility of the senate department
What the public utilities supported ?
the structural and energy policies by their regional investments, by employing an upsized workforce and by expanding combined heat and power generation (chp) and district heating
the resource basis consisted above all of brown coal for heat and power generation (and individual heating), and the efficiency of power generation and energy end-use was extremely low. in west berlin it was primarily the responsibility of the senate department for the economy to guarantee security of supply by controlling the prices and investments of bewag and gasag. beyond these formal regulatory competencies the department had ownership supervision over the public utilities. however, the political influence derived from these regulatory and ownership competencies should not be overestimated. the close relationships allowed the exploitation of the utilities for political objectives to a certain extent, but in return the senate had to accept inflated energy prices. the utilities supported the structural and energy policies by their regional investments, by employing an upsized workforce and by expanding combined heat and power generation (chp) and district heating. but they defied political attempts to promote demand-side management, renewable energies and decentralized chp. while an efficient environmental policy in the energy sector tended to be absent in eastern germany, and the energy system was one of the most polluting worldwide
Between what years it is unlikely emissions would be constrained during the Protocol's first commitment period?
it is unlikely that emissions would be significantly constrained during the protocol's first commitment period, 2008 to 2012
Under what government did the emissions in the United Kingdom's coal industry dropped?
emissions in the united kingdom dropped as a result of changes in its coal industry begun under the thatcher government
Which protocol was an impractical policy that had unrealistic and inappropriate goals?
all in all, the kyoto protocol is an impractical policy focused on achieving an unrealistic and inappropriate goal
the reasons are varied, but have nothing to do with climate change policy: emissions in the united kingdom dropped as a result of changes in its coal industry begun under the thatcher government; german emissions fell because reunification led quickly to the elimination of many energy-inefficient activities in what was once east germany; and russian emissions were reduced because the russian economy collapsed in the 1990s. as a result, total emissions from annex b countries are currently below 1990 levels. if the protocol goes forward without the united states, emissions from the remaining countries would be about 400 million metric tons below the target. it is unlikely that emissions would be significantly constrained during the protocol's first commitment period, 2008 to 2012. moreover, the protocol's emissions targets apply only to the 2008-2012 period: limits for future periods remain to be negotiated. if the protocol fails to constrain emissions in the first commitment period, it will have done nothing to reduce the risks posed by climate change. all in all, the kyoto protocol is an impractical policy focused on achieving an unrealistic and inappropriate goal. the bonn and marrakesh revisions in 2001 postponed the protocol's collapse by reducing its stringency, but did nothing to address the underlying design flaws. further negotiations will accomplish little of substance as long as they remain focused on establishing a targets-and-timetables approach to climate change policy.
How many empirical methods where used?
three different empirical methods
The second method used was the '_____' method?
change in rain days' method
The first method used was the '_____' method?
proportional' method
the factors of monthly rainfall changes derived from the gcm changes were then downscaled to daily time-step using three different empirical methods, representative of the spectrum of possible changes in the temporal structure of rainfall series (figure 3). let figure 3a be the observed baseline daily rainfall series. the first method corresponds to a 'proportional' method (figure 3b), where the same percentage change was applied to each rain day of the observed data used for the rainfall-runoff modelling. no change in the daily variability of the rainfall is assumed compared with that of the baseline series. this is the simplest method, widely applied in impact studies. the second method changed the number of wet days in each month, as well as changing the monthly totals--the 'change in rain days' method. the increase in the monthly total during the winter (october to march) was modelled as an increase of the number of wet days in which every third dry day was made wet (figure 3c). the percentage increase was divided equally between the 'new' wet days, giving typically between one and five extra wet days during each winter month. proportional changes were applied to wet summer days when an increase was predicted. for a decrease in summer monthly totals, the change was initially applied proportionally and then any day with less than 2 mm of rainfall was deemed to be dry. the total rainfall removed by reducing the number of wet days was then redistributed amongst the remaining wet days to maintain the correct monthly total. this method essentially created wetter winters with more wet days and drier summers with more dry days. such a change is typical of milder winters, with westerly type airflow with a succession of frontal systems, and of warmer and drier summers, punctuated by more intense, short-duration convective storms. the third method, termed 'enhanced storm', sought to change the intensity of daily rainfall while maintaining the average monthly changes as prescribed by the gcm. this method held the number of wet days constant but added the percentage increase in rainfall equally onto those days with the three highest recorded totals, creating an enhanced storm profile (figure 3d), thereby increasing the intensity of the most extreme events only. scenarios of potential evaporation (pe) were also needed for the rainfall-runoff modelling at a daily time-step. these were created using monthly changes of pe calculated according to the penman-montieth
Who has already rejected the traditional process of selecting an optimal plan based on a 'most likely' future scenario?
iugls has already rejected the traditional process of selecting an optimal plan based on a 'most likely' future scenario
Why has IUGLS already rejected the traditional process of selecting an optimal plan based on a 'most likely' future scenario?
iugls has already rejected the traditional process of selecting an optimal plan based on a 'most likely' future scenario, because of the uncertainties associated with future climate change
Why has a more bottomup, vulnerability-based approach been chosen?
they have chosen a more bottomup, vulnerability-based approach that will explicitly account for these uncertainties in identifying a regulation plan design that performs well over a very broad range of possible futures (figure 4), using ds to integrate local and user-based perspectives on significant vulnerabilities of key lake management goals with information on future climate derived from climate models
iugls has already rejected the traditional process of selecting an optimal plan based on a 'most likely' future scenario, because of the uncertainties associated with future climate change, and hence lake levels, on top of large uncertainties associated with ecosystem responses to future change and the various socioeconomic drivers of lake use and conditions. instead, they have chosen a more bottomup, vulnerability-based approach that will explicitly account for these uncertainties in identifying a regulation plan design that performs well over a very broad range of possible futures (figure 4), using ds to integrate local and user-based perspectives on significant vulnerabilities of key lake management goals with information on future climate derived from climate models.
How we compare the expected costs of shifting from one path of emission reductions to another?
through an informal price-based approach, we compared the expected costs of shifting from one path of emission reductions to another (e.g. moving from a stabilisation target of 650 to 550 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent [ppm co2e]) with the expected benefits of doing so
What are the benefits?
we expressed expected benefits not only in terms of formally estimated monetary benefits, but also in terms of reductions in basic risks to human wellbeing and to the environment (e.g. reduced risks of food and water shortages).5 we summarised the consequences of different stabilisation targets in figure 13.4 of the review, which we reproduce here in appendix 1. from this summary, the reader can transparently judge the benefits of incrementally tightening the target from 750 ppm co2e to 400 ppm co2e
How can we judge the benefits?
from this summary, the reader can transparently judge the benefits of incrementally tightening the target from 750 ppm co2e to 400 ppm co2e
chapter 13 of the review brings together all this information in a third line of investigation. through an informal price-based approach, we compared the expected costs of shifting from one path of emission reductions to another (e.g. moving from a stabilisation target of 650 to 550 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent [ppm co2e]) with the expected benefits of doing so. we expressed expected benefits not only in terms of formally estimated monetary benefits, but also in terms of reductions in basic risks to human wellbeing and to the environment (e.g. reduced risks of food and water shortages).5 we summarised the consequences of different stabilisation targets in figure 13.4 of the review, which we reproduce here in appendix 1. from this summary, the reader can transparently judge the benefits of incrementally tightening the target from 750 ppm co2e to 400 ppm co2e. this can be compared with a range of estimates of the costs of doing so, which is also summarised in chapter 13. thus mendelsohn [citation] is mistaken in suggesting that we only compared the costs of bau climate change with "one, near-term aggressive abatement policy".6
How were the C:N Ratios measured?
c:n ratios were measured from mixed samples of two sun-exposed leaves of five individual plants per species and plot, sampled in july
What do C and N stand for?
leaf carbon (c), leaf nitrogen (n
leaf carbon (c), leaf nitrogen (n) and c:n ratios were measured from mixed samples of two sun-exposed leaves of five individual plants per species and plot, sampled in july (kreyling, beierkuhnlein jentsch 2010). the samples were oven-dried for 48 h at 75  c. the dry leaves were ball-milled and subsamples of 1 mg analysed with an elemental analyser in a mass spectrometer using conflo iii interface. plant-available nitrogen was extracted from four homogenized, sieved (2 mm) and filtered (roth, germany, typ 15a blauband) mixed samples of the upper soil layer (0-10 cm) of each plot using a 1 m kcl solution.
What promising technical options for incremental change are already available?
many promising technical options for incremental change are already available, including increasing carbon sequestration in agricultural landscapes, reducing methane from paddy rice box 4 and livestock, and decreasing nitrous oxide from fertilizer use in cereal crops systems
What needs to be demonstrated to investors and national governments?
robust evidence is needed to demonstrate to investors and national governments that mitigating agricultural greenhouse gases can be achieved while also increasing yields in farmers ' fi elds and not imposing other costs or constraints on farmers
What is needed to stimulate political action and investment in higher cost and more extensive mitigation measures?
policylevel incentives, whether carbon prices or enforcement of emissions targets, will be needed to stimulate political action and investment in higher cost and more extensive mitigation measures
many promising technical options for incremental change are already available, including increasing carbon sequestration in agricultural landscapes, reducing methane from paddy rice box 4 and livestock, and decreasing nitrous oxide from fertilizer use in cereal crops systems. while many of these actions are already promoted as best management practices, several challenges to action persist. robust evidence is needed to demonstrate to investors and national governments that mitigating agricultural greenhouse gases can be achieved while also increasing yields in farmers ' fi elds and not imposing other costs or constraints on farmers. better information is needed about the fi nancial viability and investment required to scale-up practices, including the costs and bene fi ts for farmers for the transition to the new practice and its maintenance; the cost of improved technical advice, credit and inputs; and the cost of monitoring changes. priority farming systems, agroecological zones and geographic areas need to be targeted to identify where currently known led practices are most suitable and can achieve the most rapid and signi fi cant mitigation. this should involve future scenarios of crop demand and land use change box 2 ). also, the impacts of proposed practices on vulnerable populations, including women, will need to be anticipated and monitored to insure socially inclusive development. more transformative changes will also be needed, with promising opportunities for reaching large-scale impacts in the breeding of reduced methane ruminants and rice, breeding of nitri fi cation inhibition traits in maize and wheat, shifting from beef to lower emissions food, and reducing food waste and loss. policylevel incentives, whether carbon prices or enforcement of emissions targets, will be needed to stimulate political action and investment in higher cost and more extensive mitigation measures. 5. conclusions there are many studies of projected impacts of climate change on crop yields. under-researched areas include impacts on broader cropping system issues (e.g. crops in a landscape context, value chains), on livestock and fi sheries production systems, on pests and diseases, and on food security dimensions other than production. despite uncertainty involved in climate impact studies and limitations to climate and crop models, it is clear that climate impacts on food security will be serious, and thus we advocate for more research that directly informs the actions needed to tackle food security challenges. while food systems will need transformative options in the coming decades, we identify four immediate challenges. the fi rst is to change the culture of research to focus on outcomes. this will involve extensive stakeholder engagement. the second is to design and trial portfolios of options. solutions will be highly context-speci fi c, so we need a focus on prioritization approaches for the bene fi t of communities, projects and countries. again stakeholder engagement is central to success. the third challenge is to achieve social inclusion through a focus on people who are most vulnerable to climate change. the fi nal challenge is to address adaptation and mitigation together in the context of food security, at farm, national and global levels. to meet these challenges, science must work hand in hand with practitioners and policy-makers, to devise sensible options that meet current needs and capacities, try out best bets, and learn from experience. acknowledgements we acknowledge the cgiar fund council, european union, and international fund for agricultural development for funding to the cgiar research program on climate change, agriculture and food security (ccafs). we thank jon kudelka for granting us permission to reproduce his work in this article. we thank magdalena haman for editorial assistance on the manuscript. references
Which is smaller, post-treatment system or no UASB reactor?
post-treatment system will be slightly smaller compared with the alternative of no uasb reactor
Where does excess sludge go in biofilm aerobic reactor systems?
the aerobic biological excess sludge is simply returned to the uasb reactor, where it undergoes digestion and thickening with the anaerobic sludge, dispensing with the separate digestion and thickening units for the aerobic sludge
Are liquid and solid included in the overall flowsheet with the biofilm aerobic reactor systems?
thus a large simplification in the overall flowsheet is obtained, including the liquid (sewage) and solid (sludge) phases
uasb - post-treatment system will be slightly smaller compared with the alternative of no uasb reactor. therefore, an economy in the construction and operation costs is usually obtained, in comparison with conventional systems not preceded by an anaerobic stage. figure4.24illustratessomeofthemainpossiblecombinationsofuasbreactors with post-treatment systems. it can be observed that in the uasb - activated sludge and uasb - biofilm aerobic reactor systems, the aerobic biological excess sludge is simply returned to the uasb reactor, where it undergoes digestion and thickening with the anaerobic sludge, dispensing with the separate digestion and thickening units for the aerobic sludge. thus a large simplification in the overall flowsheet is obtained, including the liquid (sewage) and solid (sludge) phases.
What are ethiopian farmers exposed to?
ethiopian farmers are exposed to both gradual climate change (mainly temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate change (mainly drought and flood
What does exposure lead to?
exposure affects sensitivity, which means that exposure to higher frequencies and intensities of climate risk highly affects outcome (e.g., yield, income, health
What does higher adaptive capacity result in?
in other words, higher adaptive capacity (socioeconomic vulnerability) results in lower sensitivity (biophysical vulnerability) and vice versa
as figure 1 shows, ethiopian farmers are exposed to both gradual climate change (mainly temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate change (mainly drought and flood). exposure affects sensitivity, which means that exposure to higher frequencies and intensities of climate risk highly affects outcome (e.g., yield, income, health). exposure is also linked to adaptive capacity. for instance, higher adaptive capacity reduces the potential damage from higher exposure. sensitivity and adaptive capacity are also linked: given a fixed level of exposure, the adaptive capacity influences the level of sensitivity. in other words, higher adaptive capacity (socioeconomic vulnerability) results in lower sensitivity (biophysical vulnerability) and vice versa. therefore, sensitivity and adaptive capacity add up to total vulnerability. climate change (gradual) climate extremes exposure adaptive capacity sensitivity biophysical vulnerability socioeconomic vulnerability total vulnerability 8 8
What is the first thing we note?
first, we note that seemingly banal day-to-day practices and techniques can be central to processes of policy innovation and change, and highlight the ability of these practices (such as, for instance, double-entry financial accounting of assets and liabilities) to influence the framing of policy debates, typically quite narrowly framed
What is the second thing noted?
second, the literatures emphasise the importance of professional expertise and knowledge in developing policy responses, especially in conditions of uncertainty
What is the third point to be noted?
third, our brief review has draw attention to the unusual current visibility of carbon accounting practices and techniques, because they are still being actively debated as climate change remains a relatively new policy problem - thereby demonstrating the value of this particular case study, to which we now turn
in summary, in this necessarily brief review of literature we have drawn together a diversity of concepts and theories which nevertheless have common themes with relevance for understanding carbon accountancy. first, we note that seemingly banal day-to-day practices and techniques can be central to processes of policy innovation and change, and highlight the ability of these practices (such as, for instance, double-entry financial accounting of assets and liabilities) to influence the framing of policy debates, typically quite narrowly framed. second, the literatures emphasise the importance of professional expertise and knowledge in developing policy responses, especially in conditions of uncertainty. third, our brief review has draw attention to the unusual current visibility of carbon accounting practices and techniques, because they are still being actively debated as climate change remains a relatively new policy problem - thereby demonstrating the value of this particular case study, to which we now turn. 15 15
What all were included in the packet compiled by the researchers?
after obtaining approval from the institutional review board, the researchers compiled a packet that included a cover letter, a consent form, and all survey instruments
What kind of instructions did the participants get?
participants were instructed that they would be part of a research study examining discrimination and stress
From which department were all the participants drawn?
all participants were drawn from the department of communication
after obtaining approval from the institutional review board, the researchers compiled a packet that included a cover letter, a consent form, and all survey instruments. participants were instructed that they would be part of a research study examining discrimination and stress. participation in the project allowed students to fulfill a research requirement associated with their program; however, they could participate in a range of other research projects instead, and participants were instructed that there was no penalty associated with either not participating or not completing the survey. all participants were drawn from the department of communication. upon completion of the survey, students were given a debriefing form providing additional information on the purpose of the investigation. they were also directed to the college counseling center for additional support and referral in case they experienced any discomfort as a result of completing the survey.
What did the decade following the release of the IPCC's First Assessment Report see?
significant evolution of climate change impacts and adaptation research, due to a number of factors
the decade following the release of the ipcc's first assessment report saw significant evolution of climate change impacts and adaptation research, due to a number of factors. first, there was growing evidence that climate change was already occurring,(3)with significant consequences in some regions.(4, 5, 6)impacts could no longer be viewed as hypothetical outcomes of various emissions scenarios, but instead needed to be addressed as real and imminent concerns. research was also suggesting that there would be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, and that these changes would likely challenge human and natural systems much more than gradual changes in mean conditions would.(7)in addition, it had become apparent that mitigation could not prevent climate change from occurring; temperatures would continue to rise even if stabilization of carbon dioxide were achieved.(8)these factors led to recognition among the international climate change community that adaptation was a necessary complement to mitigation for reducing vulnerability to climate change. this shift in attitude is reflected in the changing titles of the three ipcc working group ii assessment reports completed between 1990 and 2001 (table 1), as well as in a number of recent reports on approaches to impacts and adaptation research.(8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
What is the square footage of the building?
source of choice for buildings
How long will it take for the back up to kick in ?
opportunity for them to have such back-ups when the power fails
How big are the ceiling fans to operate the mechanisms?
pv-powered ceiling fans or passive cooling, so making buildings
solar energy has many advantages as an energy source of choice for buildings, being the easiest to integrate onto buildings and cities. pv systems provide clean electricity while producing no co 2 it is estimated that for every kilowatt hour (kwh) of pv electricity that is produced 0.6 kg of co 2 is saved, with this figure rising to 1 kg/kwh when the pv replaces off-grid diesel. in ordinary uk houses, for instance, it has been shown to be possible to reduce co 2 emissions by up to 60% with energy efficiency measures, but using pvs, solar hot water and passive solar systems, 90% reductions in emissions can be achieved, enough, in the view of the royal commission on environmental pollution, to stabilize climate change, 36 if such reductions were achieved across the buildings board. pv energy supply is located at the point of demand so there are few or no losses incurred in transporting the electricity, and therefore enhancing security in the supply. pvs can supply electricity to locations remote from a traditional grid. the pv electricity supply can be isolated from the grid supply and so provide a reliable back-up at periods of grid failure. this factor is already important because over 3 billion people today are connected to conventional electricity supply systems and pvs offer the opportunity for them to have such back-ups when the power fails, although the connection mechanisms are not well developed to achieve this yet. thus solar energy will become increasingly important as conventional grid supplies become less reliable. in many parts of the world brownouts (reductions in voltage that dim the lights) and blackouts already occur at the times of day when power is most needed. an example of this is in hot countries when the surge of demand on hot summer afternoons means that blackouts shut down air conditioning systems. in sensible low-energy buildings cooling may be achieved with pv-powered ceiling fans or passive cooling, so making buildings, in many climates, comfortable again. although pv systems cannot run large air conditioning systems, great advances have been made in the field of solar cooling. solar systems are quiet, robust and require little maintenance or repair. they often form part of the building skin itself, so reducing the cost of installation. when more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
How do they forecast the weather in dryland Kenya?
agro-pastoralists in dryland kenya (and probably in many other places too) rely on indigenous indicators of rainfall variability and use them as a framework within which to position and interpret meteorological forecasts
What is the role of indigenous knowledge?
one recurring thread in recent discussions concerning responses to increasing climate variability is the role of indigenous knowledge
What does integrating different types of knowledge and bringing different stakeholders together do?
integrating different types of knowledge and bringing different stakeholder groups together pose significant challenges
one recurring thread in recent discussions concerning responses to increasing climate variability is the role of indigenous knowledge. agro-pastoralists in dryland kenya (and probably in many other places too) rely on indigenous indicators of rainfall variability and use them as a framework within which to position and interpret meteorological forecasts (rao et al., 2011); at the same time, few are able to adapt their practices because of a general lack of adaptive capacity (speranza et al., 2010). integrating different types of knowledge and bringing different stakeholder groups together pose significant challenges, however, and considerable innovation in participatory action research will be needed (ziervogel and opere, 2010). but there would seem to be a rich area of research in investigating the reliability and
What is the potencial of the Apis mellifera?
the european honey bee, apis mellifera has the potential to adapt to hot climates
Where is the Apis mellifera sahariensis found?
for instance, apis mellifera sahariensis is found in the oases of the sahara, where it has adapted to local bloom (such as palm flowers) and extreme heat (33
Where can the honey bees develop in the United States?
in the usa, honey bees can develop in the arizona desert
the european honey bee, apis mellifera has the potential to adapt to hot climates. for instance, apis mellifera sahariensis is found in the oases of the sahara, where it has adapted to local bloom (such as palm flowers) and extreme heat (33). in the usa, honey bees can develop in the arizona desert. the survival requirement for these bees is a supply of water, which they use in large quantities to raise their larvae and to regulate the brood temperature to between 34degc and 35degc. in an arid environment, desert flowers are unable to provide the bees with enough water and they die. according to climate change predictions, desert regions will become even drier, leading to the disappearance of oases and their honey bees. apis mellifera sahariensis is highly unlikely to migrate naturally to more favourable desert areas because oases are very isolated and not conducive to long-distance migration or swarming. it is therefore vital to envisage conservation measures to transfer this bee to zones favourable to its development, lest we lose this ecotype that is so valuable for world biodiversity. climate change can influence the honey bee development cycle. it is generally agreed that each race of honey bees develops at its own rate (21). any sort of climate change or movement of a race of honey bees from one geographical region to an alien one is therefore bound to have measurable consequences. in cool regions, honey bees spend the winter clustered in a tight ball and use their honey stores to provide them with the energy they need to survive until spring. the honey bee's capacity to accumulate energy reserves and to manage the colony's development exerts significant adaptive pressure. in the spring, when the weather becomes more clement, the queen starts to lay eggs and the colony develops and increases the size of the worker population. a cold snap lasting several weeks may occur during which the honey bees are unable to harvest. the large size of the honey bee population causes such a rapid depletion of stores that the colony can die of starvation. it is something that can easily happen to hybrid bees (crosses of several races by bee breeders), which develop very fast in spring. in contrast, local ecotypes that are better adapted to the environmental conditions are more cautious and develop more slowly in spring until after this cold snap, when they breed very rapidly. in this way they avoid jeopardising the colony's survival. a distinction therefore needs to be made between local ecotypes, which need to adjust their development and stores to the climate, and hybrid bees selected by bee breeders. hybrids have not been bred to build up food stores, the queen does not adjust her egg-laying and the workers do not adjust their larvae-rearing, with the result that the bees are unable to survive without the assistance of a beekeeper to provide them with unlimited supplies of sugar solution (21). the variability of the honey bee's lifehistory traits as regards temperature and the environment shows such plasticity and genetic variability that this could give rise to the selection of development cycles suited to new climatic conditions. bees adjust their behaviour to weather conditions. they do not go out when it rains and, in extremely hot weather, they gather water to keep the colony cool.
What is recognised as a threat to the achivement of the MDGs
climate change is increasingly recognised as a threat to the achievement of the millennium development goals (mdgs
What Human Develpment report warns
the 2007/8 human development report warns that, in the next 50-80 years, as a result of climate change an extra 600 million people are likely to be affected by malnutrition; an additional 1.8 billion people are likely to be living in a water-stressed environment; 330 million people may be permanently displaced, because of rising sea levels; and an additional 220-400 million may be exposed to malaria worldwide (undp, 2007
Is Greenhouse gas rising ?
greenhouse gas (ghg) concentrations are currently rising at a rate greater than projected by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) (meehl et al., 2007), leading to concerns that the ipcc projections are likely to be conservative and over-optimistic (raupach et al., 2007), and that large, abrupt, non-linear changes in the global climate system may occur during the twenty-first century (schneider and lane, 2006; pittock, 2008
climate change is increasingly recognised as a threat to the achievement of the millennium development goals (mdgs), and to human development and well-being globally. greenhouse gas (ghg) concentrations are currently rising at a rate greater than projected by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) (meehl et al., 2007), leading to concerns that the ipcc projections are likely to be conservative and over-optimistic (raupach et al., 2007), and that large, abrupt, non-linear changes in the global climate system may occur during the twenty-first century (schneider and lane, 2006; pittock, 2008). the implications of such changes for human well-being and for the poor in developing countries are profound, widespread and deadly. the 2007/8 human development report warns that, in the next 50-80 years, as a result of climate change an extra 600 million people are likely to be affected by malnutrition; an additional 1.8 billion people are likely to be living in a water-stressed environment; 330 million people may be permanently displaced, because of rising sea levels; and an additional 220-400 million may be exposed to malaria worldwide (undp, 2007). of course, these impacts will be - and are already being - felt most keenly by the poorest in developing countries
What is the current policy and regulatory environment for management and planning?
what are the biggest concerns and ecological/social sensitivities in a changing climate? * which management strategies can be used to adapt to potentially rapid change in climate and resource conditions
What information and tools are needed to provide adequate information for the above questions?
which information and tools are needed to adequately address the questions above? * which aspects of the policy and regulatory environment affect (enable, inhibit) management that adapts to climate change
these questions are intended to establish the local management context, elicit overarching management responses to climate change, and promote mutual learning within the science-management partnership. questions can be designed to accommodate local interests and preferences. * what are priorities for long-term resource management (e.g., 50 years)? how can climate change be integrated in planning at this time scale? * what is the policy and regulatory environment in which management and planning are currently done? * what are the biggest concerns and ecological/social sensitivities in a changing climate? * which management strategies can be used to adapt to potentially rapid change in climate and resource conditions? * which information and tools are needed to adequately address the questions above? * which aspects of the policy and regulatory environment affect (enable, inhibit) management that adapts to climate change?
when was the villa in Herculaneum built?
this villa in herculaneum, built between 1755 and 1775, is laid out in a square with the four corner blocks of apartments divided on the piano nobile, on the third floor, by a huge cross axis of double-height rooms capped by a large raised rotunda in the centre with windows on four sides creating a venturi tower
How is the villa in Herculaneum laid out?
this villa in herculaneum, built between 1755 and 1775, is laid out in a square with the four corner blocks of apartments divided on the piano nobile, on the third floor, by a huge cross axis of double-height rooms capped by a large raised rotunda in the centre with windows on four sides creating a venturi tower
Where is the house situates at?
the house is situated about half a mile from the sea. the genius of this building is its ventilation systems. in warm weather the whole building could be opened up to catch the wind
this villa in herculaneum, built between 1755 and 1775, is laid out in a square with the four corner blocks of apartments divided on the piano nobile, on the third floor, by a huge cross axis of double-height rooms capped by a large raised rotunda in the centre with windows on four sides creating a venturi tower. beneath the ground floor are two further basement levels including water cisterns and an ice storage room. this villa has far larger windows than the previous buildings and the family quarters include south-, westand north-facing living and dining rooms and bedrooms on the north of the building. the walls are massive, providing interseasonal heat and coolth storage capacity, with a plastered tufa construction. daylight levels are high in the living areas and for summer cooling the ventilation system would have created perfect thermal comfort. the house is situated about half a mile from the sea. the genius of this building is its ventilation systems. in warm weather the whole building could be opened up to catch the wind. in very hot weather the external doors and windows could be
What are the pPotential consequences of AMOC changes in the North Atlantic and globally Consequences of changes in AMOC North Atlantic Global?
climatic change table 7 potential consequences of amoc changes in the north atlantic and globally consequences of changes in amoc north atlantic global weakening of hydrological cycle shift in tropical precipitation patterns change towards pacific type of climate change in intensity of monsoons progression of sea ice warming in ta and sa shift of oceanic fronts increase in hurricane activity in ta and sa shift of storm tracks cooling of northern hemisphere increase in extreme cold events change in atmospheric standing waves higher probability of storm surges changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation impacts on fisheries and fish-farming changes in sea ice extent in so impacts on marine and terrestrial changes in oxygen ventilation ecosystems reduction in oceanic carbon uptake impacts on water transportation destabilization of methane hydrates
How the fisheries and fish-farming Changes impacts on water transportation Destabilization of methane hydrates?
impacts on fisheries and fish-farming changes in sea ice extent in so impacts on marine and terrestrial changes in oxygen ventilation ecosystems reduction in oceanic carbon uptake impacts on water transportation destabilization of methane hydrates
What are the after effects of increase in hurricane activity in TA and SA?
increase in hurricane activity in ta and sa shift of storm tracks cooling of northern hemisphere increase in extreme cold events change in atmospheric standing waves higher probability of storm surges changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation
climatic change table 7 potential consequences of amoc changes in the north atlantic and globally consequences of changes in amoc north atlantic global weakening of hydrological cycle shift in tropical precipitation patterns change towards pacific type of climate change in intensity of monsoons progression of sea ice warming in ta and sa shift of oceanic fronts increase in hurricane activity in ta and sa shift of storm tracks cooling of northern hemisphere increase in extreme cold events change in atmospheric standing waves higher probability of storm surges changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation impacts on fisheries and fish-farming changes in sea ice extent in so impacts on marine and terrestrial changes in oxygen ventilation ecosystems reduction in oceanic carbon uptake impacts on water transportation destabilization of methane hydrates
According to company B which is representing new commercial opportunities?
company b appeared to see climate impacts as representing new commercial opportunities, possibly in the short-term
In what basis adaptation measures are framed?
adaptation measures were framed in terms of current business practices and drivers
What factor affects Core business?
if a climate change is seen to have a significant physical impact on the core business, companies tend to engage with the issue on a technical level
through extended interaction with managers, we came to recognise patterns in the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation options in the nine companies. for instance, company b appeared to see climate impacts as representing new commercial opportunities, possibly in the short-term. company h, on the other hand, had responded mainly defensively and sought to draw on external resources, such as the environmental regulator. our case study research identified four factors that appeared to shape patterns of an organisation's approach to adaptation: core competencies companies can be expected to search for and adopt adaptation measures in areas that match their core competencies. interviewees tended to suggest adaptation measures that the company would be able to design and implement within the framework of the knowledge base of the organisation. adaptation measures were framed in terms of current business practices and drivers. core business if a climate change is seen to have a significant physical impact on the core business, companies tend to engage with the issue on a technical level. for instance, water companies will be inclined to adopt engineering solutions to respond to an imbalance between supply and demand due to climate change. where only a marginal activity is affected, risk-sharing or risk-shifting options such as insurance or out-sourcing often appeared more appealing. the degree of exposure to climate-related risks therefore influences the mode of adaptation.
What does the Ricardian analysis use?
our analysis uses individual farm-level observations from the june agricultural survey
When and why is the Agricultural Survey conducted?
this survey is conducted in june of each year to forecast the planted area of most crops
How many and what are the parts of the Agricultural Survey?
the survey is split into two parts: the first is a random sample of the census of agriculture, while the second is a stratified sample of farms based on geographic location
the dependent variable in a ricardian analysis therefore is farmland value. our analysis uses individual farm-level observations from the june agricultural survey. this survey is conducted in june of each year to forecast the planted area of most crops. the survey is split into two parts: the first is a random sample of the census of agriculture, while the second is a stratified sample of farms based on geographic location. we rely on the second part as it is a geo-referenced sample of all farms, i.e., usda randomly selects latitude and longitude combinations and records all farms in that one square-mile section.14we use the
what does reptiles do to maximise exposure of the sun?
reptiles tend to bask on southfacing slopes that are neither too shallow nor too steep to maximize exposure to the sun
what type of environment amphibian prefer?
amphibians tend to prefer cool, moist localities on north-facing slopes
what are two variables based on the National Elevation Dataset?
the two variables were: (1) the proportion of each 1km resolution cell that is south-facing (se to sw) and with a slope of 20-60 degrees; and (2) the proportion of each 1km resolution cell that is north-facing (nw to ne) and with a slope of 20-60 degrees
land surface form slope and aspect can be important factors for amphibians and reptiles. reptiles tend to bask on southfacing slopes that are neither too shallow nor too steep to maximize exposure to the sun. amphibians tend to prefer cool, moist localities on north-facing slopes. we generated two variables based on the national elevation dataset (http://ned.usgs.gov), which is derived from multiple data sources including lidar and srtm. the elevation data is at 30m resolution and we applied a 5x5 low pass filter to smooth artifacts. the two variables were: (1) the proportion of each 1km resolution cell that is south-facing (se to sw) and with a slope of 20-60 degrees; and (2) the proportion of each 1km resolution cell that is north-facing (nw to ne) and with a slope of 20-60 degrees.
Which climate factors influence fish heath?
climatic factors, such as air and water temperature, and precipitation and wind patterns, strongly influence fish health, productivity and distribution
What could have significant impacts on fish populations?
changes such as those associated with a 1.4-5.8degc increase in global temperature, as have been projected by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) for the current century
Why these changes affect the fish so much?
this is because most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions under which they experience optimal growth, reproduction and survival. if these conditions change in response to a changing climate, fish could be impacted both directly and indirectly
climatic factors, such as air and water temperature, and precipitation and wind patterns, strongly influence fish health, productivity and distribution. changes such as those associated with a 1.4-5.8degc increase in global temperature, as have been projected by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) for the current century,(5)could have significant impacts on fish populations (e.g., references 6, 7). this is because most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions under which they experience optimal growth, reproduction and survival. if these conditions change in response to a changing climate, fish could be impacted both directly and indirectly. some potential impacts include shifts in species distributions, reduced or enhanced growth, increased competition from exotic species, greater susceptibility to disease and/or parasites, and altered ecosystem function. these changes could eliminate species from all or part of their present ranges(8, 9)and would affect sustainable harvests of fish. evidence suggests that, in some regions, fisheries may already be experiencing the effects of climate change. for example, climate change has been identified as a potential contributor to declining salmon stocks on the pacific coast.(10)in the arctic, reports of sockeye and pink salmon captured well outside their known range may be related to recent warming trends.(11)furthermore, recent shifts in river flows consistent with climate change projections see 'water resources' chapter) have been linked to changes in fish populations in various regions of the country.
Mesocosm experiments have been established to simulate what?
mesocosm (small artificial lake) experiments have been established to simulate climate change impacts (moss et al ., 2003, 2004
What impacts do increased temperatures have on growing season and growth rates of algae and zooplankton, according to these mesocosm experiments?
these controlled environments show that growing seasons are extended by increased temperatures, as are growth rates of algae and zooplankton
How did the ecology of the mesocosms change with regard to native and exotic species?
the ecology of the mesocosms changed significantly with exotic species out-competing native species
as part of euro-limpacs, a set of mesocosm (small artificial lake) experiments have been established to simulate climate change impacts (moss et al ., 2003, 2004). these controlled environments show that growing seasons are extended by increased temperatures, as are growth rates of algae and zooplankton. oxygen concentrations fall as temperature reduces saturation levels and increased nutrient levels enhance respiration. this could, in turn, lead to increased risks of fish deaths even for tolerant species. the ecology of the mesocosms changed significantly with exotic species out-competing native species. future projections suggest that oxygen levels may decline and cyanobacteria blooms may become more extensive. the findings from these mesocosm experiments could have implications for lowland rivers, as well as for shallow lakes, where water levels are controlled by weirs and where there can be long residence times in summer. van doorslaer et al (2007) have also shown that zooplankton evolution can occur over relatively few generations, raising the possibility that ecosystems might maintain their current structure and functionality by adapting to temperatures increases. whilst one or two species might achieve sufficient rates of change, it seems unlikely that whole ecosystems could evolve in parallel.
How has the Weather Generator been validated?
the weather generator has been validated using the 1961-1990 rainfall fields for the statistics used in fitting as well as the rmed (median annual maximum rainfall
What is an important measure of the proportion of high intensity rainfall?
skewness is an important measure of the proportion of high intensity rainfall
What does this inaccuracy in turn limit?
this inaccuracy in turn limits the wg capability for reproduction of extremes
the weather generator has been validated using the 1961-1990 rainfall fields for the statistics used in fitting as well as the rmed (median annual maximum rainfall). this validation used the 25 km grid across the uk, and scatter plots are shown in figure a3 to demonstrate goodness of fit. the statistics are generally fitted very well, with the exception of skewness. skewness is an important measure of the proportion of high intensity rainfall, but is rather variable spatially due to the sensitivity of the statistic to the occurrence of one or two heavy rainfall events in the 30 yr of record. this inaccuracy in turn limits the wg capability for reproduction of extremes.
What is the newly envisioned as a sustained process over time?
national climate assessment, newly envisioned as a sustained process over time
What is essential for extracting the insights we need from exploratory climate and Earth system modeling?
greater attention to the systematic development and application of the less-complex members of the modeling hierarchy will be essential for extracting the insights we need from exploratory climate and earth system modeling
We gain understanding of the complex system by relating what systems and what is an example?
we gain understanding of a complex system in part by relating its behavior to those of a hierarchy of progressively simpler systems (e.g., much simpler biological systems to improve understanding of more complex organisms like human beings, as per ref 145
we gain understanding of a complex system in part by relating its behavior to those of a hierarchy of progressively simpler systems (e.g., much simpler biological systems to improve understanding of more complex organisms like human beings, as per ref 145). greater attention to the systematic development and application of the less-complex members of the modeling hierarchy will be essential for extracting the insights we need from exploratory climate and earth system modeling. determining the aspects of model development and application that are important should not occur in a vacuum but rather in the context of the kinds of participatory, bottom-up processes that underlie our case studies. such processes will likely require new institutional arrangements, including new boundary organizations, knowledge networks, and communities of practice, to accommodate them. one example is the u.s. national climate assessment, newly envisioned as a sustained process over time,3and explicitly structured around participatory sub-processes (e.g., for scenario development146). in addition, one outcome of the symposium that originally inspired this review (see acknowledgments), at least in part, was a set of new efforts supported (individually) by the u.s. department of defense, the u.s. environmental protection agency, and the state of california,147
how many parts of the affect the world to climate change
global climate change and growing environmental instability affect local communities in many parts of the world. institutions at multiple scales mediate responses to climate change while rapidly changing and adapting to new demands
what special section  focuses in analyzing climate change
this special section focuses on analyzing social innovation in the context of adaptation to climate change and associated variability, investigating the emerging institutional spaces, networks and coalitions
what dimensions of social in to climate adaptation
social dimensions of climate adaptation: institutions, community, and social innovation the effects of climate change are most pronounced among poor and marginal populations whose livelihoods are primarily natural resource based, and where climate change has a potential to cause long-term transformations in local social e ecological systems
global climate change and growing environmental instability affect local communities in many parts of the world. institutions at multiple scales mediate responses to climate change while rapidly changing and adapting to new demands. the papers in this collection build on the insight that effective responses to climate change require innovation e technological as well as institutional and relational. innovations are human adaptations to changing needs and socio-economic conditions, and are therefore embedded in social processes. the concept of social innovation draws attention to the broader, collective dimensions of these adaptive practices. this special section focuses on analyzing social innovation in the context of adaptation to climate change and associated variability, investigating the emerging institutional spaces, networks and coalitions. we aim to contribute to the ongoing conversation about the applied and interdisciplinary dimensions of climate adaptation research. the articles published in the 2010 special issues of the annals of the association of american geographers and the journal of applied geography on climate change demonstrated the importance of a place-based approach in understanding the severity of the impacts of climate change. while celebrating the breadth of contributions that geographers have made to a very important topic of the 21st century, the papers also call for integrating variations between physical and human systems in future research yarnal, 2010 ). they outline a need for " practice-relevant " and locality-based research on vulnerability and adaptation that particularly draws on social science perspectives on climate action in response to climate change moser, 2010 pp. 466 e 467). this means expanding the landscape of climate change research to consider broader sets of issues, including institutional, social and cultural matters. the papers in this issue aim to illuminate the still poorly researched human dimension of local climate adaptation, concentrating on local institutions and their multiscale embeddedness. they highlight the collective and collaborative dimensions of innovation, expanding the notion of adaptation that is crucial to enabling appropriate policy responses. while contributing to an interdisciplinary integration of climate change research, the collection explores climate adaptation and innovation through multiple disciplinary lenses and across diverse geographies. the articles are the outcome of two collaborative workshops organized by the initiative on climate adaptation research and understanding through the social sciences (icarus). social dimensions of climate adaptation: institutions, community, and social innovation the effects of climate change are most pronounced among poor and marginal populations whose livelihoods are primarily natural resource based, and where climate change has a potential to cause long-term transformations in local social e ecological systems. as
What is one of the most pervasive product of development?
of all the effects and products of development, ignorance is one of the most pervasive (dove, 1983; ferguson, 1990; hobart, 1993; fairhead and leach, 1995; lohmann, 1998a, b
What do ignore, displace, supplant or even eradicate knowledge possessed by their 'target populations'?
not only do the familiar accoutrements of development export of machines and expertise, market construction, debt finance, structural adjustment, titling, surveying and mapping, dam-building, extension, rural income programmes and so forth necessarily often ignore, displace, supplant or even eradicate knowledge possessed by their 'target populations
Who and which institutions enact a dualism that spread ignorance further?
ignorance spreads still further as various institutions ministries, schools, statistical and mapping bureaus, economics and forestry departments collectively enact a dualism according to which social action is the implementation of disembodied theories
of all the effects and products of development, ignorance is one of the most pervasive (dove, 1983; ferguson, 1990; hobart, 1993; fairhead and leach, 1995; lohmann, 1998a, b). not only do the familiar accoutrements of development export of machines and expertise, market construction, debt finance, structural adjustment, titling, surveying and mapping, dam-building, extension, rural income programmes and so forth necessarily often ignore, displace, supplant or even eradicate knowledge possessed by their 'target populations'. the practices accompanying such projects, in positing backward masses pressed in by nature, also help keep developers themselves ignorant of others' knowledge. villagers become those who 'do not understand' (pigg, 1992: 507), those whom it would be unfair to deprive of the benefits of western development, but above all those whose existing knowledge is irretrievably 'local' in some sense that the experts' is not. that reinforces a further kind of ignorance among developers: that of the background conditions for their own (local) knowledge.when a development institution invests in the dissemination of narratives, technology or expertise, which are problematic outside its local experience, it acquires an incentive to slight the salience not only of other contexts but also of its own. ignorance spreads still further as various institutions ministries, schools, statistical and mapping bureaus, economics and forestry departments collectively enact a dualism according to which social action is the implementation of disembodied theories. the denial that power and knowledge are situated and that reality might not be an object for centralized, hierarchical management comes to form a part not only of development professionals' defense of their class position, but also of middle-class self-description generally. as agency becomes identified with planners, the disasters and resistances that development meets are accordingly dealt with as if they were the result of either faulty theory or incorrect
Which company from 2004 works on the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells?
air products and chemicals (2004
Why will  FSA in emissions trading  be difficult to transfer to other affiliates within an MNE?
due to the international fragmentation of support for the kyoto protocol
When does MNEs restrict trading to the location of their headquarters?
when recombining is perceived as too cumbersome
activity in this direction can already be observed. petro-canada (2004) reports on a collaborative framework for a hydrogen infrastructure, as it is engaged with ballard power systems and methanex corporation in a project for a fuel distribution network for hydrogen in canada. likewise, air products and chemicals (2004) states that it 'is working with many public, private and governmental organizations to develop and promote the commercialization of hydrogen as a fuel in portable, stationary and transportation fuel markets and is leading the development of hydrogen infrastructure and fuel-handling technologies to enable the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells.' however, since the political relations with the home government are generally much better than with host country governments (baron, 1995), downstream fsas for which sales rely on business-government cooperation are likely to stay bound to the home country or home region (cell 1 or cell 3). in general, fsas that rely on organizational capabilities to coordinate and control greenhouse gas emissions are even more problematic to transfer than climate-friendly technologies; not only does it build on particular csas, but such knowledge is often also of a tacit nature and organizationally embedded. this is most clearly seen in emissions trading. currently, an fsa in emissions trading will be difficult to transfer to other affiliates within an mne, due to the international fragmentation of support for the kyoto protocol. a global framework for emissions trading has not been established yet, but remains restricted to regional initiatives. the eu-ets is the most prominent example and an fsa based on trading in this scheme is constrained to this region as it has not been linked to other schemes yet (cell 3). what is more, even though when new trading schemes are established, mnes can build on their learning experience with the eu-ets, this experience may be of limited value. it typically involves tacit, market-specific knowledge such as rules for allocating and trading allowances, which tend to differ considerably, even within the eu (boemare quirion, 2002) and is by and large organizationally embedded. being able to successfully trade emission allowances often depends on good communication between trading and production departments; an organizational capability that cannot be transferred easily. for these reasons, such organizational capabilities cannot be replicated but need to be recombined instead to fit local conditions (helfat peteraf, 2003). when recombining is perceived as too cumbersome, however, mnes may restrict trading to the location of their headquarters or particular subsidiaries (cell 1 or cell 5).
If the index is lower than 30%, what cures does the error correspond to? (Left or right?)
if the index is lower than 30% (which is the most common case), the error corresponds to the curves to the right
Is the standard error higher or lower than 2.6% if the proportion of businesses that situate themselves in the neutral zone does not reach 70%?
if the proportion of businesses that situate themselves in the neutral zone does not reach 70%, the standard error that is obtained has a value higher than 2.6
Is the index being lower than 30% common or uncommon?
if the index is lower than 30% (which is the most common case
when we look carefully at the graph, we notice that if the index is lower than 30% (which is the most common case), the error corresponds to the curves to the right. if the proportion of businesses that situate themselves in the neutral zone does not reach 70%, the standard error that is obtained has a value higher than 2.6%. moreover, it can be observed on the graph that for the specific combinations of the index and the percentages of businesses that express a neutral opinion, the confidence intervals obtained by the traditional approximation of the standard error of a proportion, have an underestimated value, in excess of 50%.
What is the main goal of this study?
discussion the major goals of this study were to examine changes in students' perceptions of teacher and peer support, opportunities for student autonomy in the classroom, and clarity and consistency of school rules during the middle school years, the effects of gender and ses on those changes, and the psychological and behavioral effects of various patterns of change over time in the different dimensions of perceived school climate
What is explain about SES?
our unconditional models revealed that, across gender and ses, perceptions of all four dimensions of school climate declined over the 3 years of middle school
What is the need of the student?
the decline in perceptions of school climate may be based on a growing mismatch between what students need (i.e., relatedness, opportunities for autonomy, and consistency) and what the school actually provides
discussion the major goals of this study were to examine changes in students' perceptions of teacher and peer support, opportunities for student autonomy in the classroom, and clarity and consistency of school rules during the middle school years, the effects of gender and ses on those changes, and the psychological and behavioral effects of various patterns of change over time in the different dimensions of perceived school climate. our unconditional models revealed that, across gender and ses, perceptions of all four dimensions of school climate declined over the 3 years of middle school. the decline in perceptions of school climate may be based on a growing mismatch between what students need (i.e., relatedness, opportunities for autonomy, and consistency) and what the school actually provides
what does aMb represent?
amb, represents the metabolic cost of maintaining posture during locomotion
what type of relationship is between energy consumption and velocity?
positive linear relationship between energy consumption and velocity
how are Movement costs represented?
movement costs are represented by an allometric equation
the model assumes a somatic maintenance rate proportional to lean body mass, lbm with m representing the energy required per unit time to maintain a unit mass of lean tissue molnar et al., 2009 ). energy costs of movement, by contrast, are dependent on total body mass, m because both lean tissue and body fat need to be moved. movement costs are represented by an allometric equation, where the first part of the sum, amb, represents the metabolic cost of maintaining posture during locomotion (in addition to somatic maintenance). the second part, cmdv reflects the positive linear relationship between energy consumption and velocity,
What is the definition of Top middle?
mean annual zonal surface air temperature anomaly, with the model 2 s shading around the mean. top right: model 2 s of mean annual surface air temperature anomalies. bottom left: mean annual total precipitation rate anomaly (mmday- 1; experiment 1 minus preindustrial control
What is the definition of Bottom middle?
mean annual zonal total precipitation rate anomaly. bottom right: model 2 s of mean annual total precipitation rate anomalies
discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper fig. 2. multi-model means, zonal means and model 2 s from the experiment 1 ensemble. top left: mean annual surface air temperature anomaly (*c; experiment 1 minus pre-industrial control). top middle: mean annual zonal surface air temperature anomaly, with the model 2 s shading around the mean. top right: model 2 s of mean annual surface air temperature anomalies. bottom left: mean annual total precipitation rate anomaly (mmday- 1; experiment 1 minus preindustrial control). bottom middle: mean annual zonal total precipitation rate anomaly. bottom right: model 2 s of mean annual total precipitation rate anomalies.
Where did Daily precipitation and temperature data was obtained ?
daily precipitation and temperature data was obtained from the ansai weather station, shaanxi. the data covers the period from january 1970 to december 2001
What did  The local temperature data contained?
the local temperature data contained only a few errors, which were manually corrected by interpolation. a total of 9.3% of the local rainfall data were missing
How many percent of rainfall is misssing?
a total of 9.3% of the local rainfall data were missing
daily precipitation and temperature data was obtained from the ansai weather station, shaanxi. the data covers the period from january 1970 to december 2001. the local temperature data contained only a few errors, which were manually corrected by interpolation. a total of 9.3% of the local rainfall data were missing. data gaps occurred over the entire period, but data were more frequently absent during the summer. the missing data were interpolated linearly. monthly and yearly means of the daily precipitation and temperature were calculated and trends were investigated. this was done both yearly and seasonally. winterwasdefinedasdecember-february,springasmarch-may,summerasjune- august and fall as september-november (domr"os and peng, 1988). the regional rainfall data were received from national climate center. six rainfall stations in the region within longitude 106-112*e and latitude 33-40*n, around ansai, shaanxi were chosen (figure 1). the received data were monthly precipitation during the time period from january 1951 to december 1999. a mean of all six stations was calculated. the same analysis was conducted as for the local rainfall. 3.2. interview data
What structure summary for Policymakers (SPM) follows?
the structure of the working group i report
What is the confidence in the validity of a finding based on?
based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement
Where can the basis for substantive paragraphs in this Summary for Policymakers be found ?
in the chapter sections of the underlying report and in the technical summary
the working group i contribution to the ipcc's fifth assessment report (ar5) considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. it builds upon the working group i contribution to the ipcc's fourth assessment report (ar4), and incorporates subsequent new findings of research. as a component of the fifth assessment cycle, the ipcc special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (srex) is an important basis for information on changing weather and climate extremes. this summary for policymakers (spm) follows the structure of the working group i report. the narrative is supported by a series of overarching highlighted conclusions which, taken together, provide a concise summary. main sections are introduced with a brief paragraph in italics which outlines the methodological basis of the assessment. the degree of certainty in key findings in this assessment is based on the author teams' evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a qualitative level of confidence (from very low to very high and, when possible, probabilistically with a quantified likelihood (from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain ). confidence in the validity of a finding is based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement1. probabilistic estimates of quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding are based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or both, and expert judgment2. where appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers. (see chapter 1 and box ts.1 for more details about the specific language the ipcc uses to communicate uncertainty). the basis for substantive paragraphs in this summary for policymakers can be found in the chapter sections of the underlying report and in the technical summary. these references are given in curly brackets.
What should happen if farmers' are confronted with rainfall or dry conditions in the future?
if confronted with persistent below-normal rainfall or dry conditions in the future, farmers' coping strategies would likely shift from modifications in on-farm activities to other income-generating opportunities
Considering a scenario without rain enough, what the respondents of the survey suggested like their preferences of cooping strategies?
1. taking waged labour (59 percent) 2. going to neighbouring villages for work (35 percent) 3. migrating (27 percent) 4. and taking loans (27 percent
There are influence of the gender in the responses?
there was no significant gender differentiation in these responses
coping strategies: future scenarios if confronted with persistent below-normal rainfall or dry conditions in the future, farmers' coping strategies would likely shift from modifications in on-farm activities to other income-generating opportunities. if there were not enough rain for a few years in a row, respondents suggested their preferences would be as follows: 1. taking waged labour (59 percent) 2. going to neighbouring villages for work (35 percent) 3. migrating (27 percent) 4. and taking loans (27 percent). there was no significant gender differentiation in these responses. however when asked if the weather was no longer predictable from year to year, i.e. not just persistently dry as above but continually unpredictable, gender differences emerged. both men and women would seek additional income through wage labour, however women would prefer to do so closer to home whereas men were prepared to go farther away. more male respondents preferred migration in search of wage labour (47 percent) to local wage labour (38 percent) as a coping strategy, whereas more women preferred local wage labour (57 percent) to migration in search of wage labour (18 percent) as a coping strategy. this statistically significant difference along gender lines suggests that if climate becomes unpredictable for the foreseeable future, men and women would prefer wage labour in different locations, with men prepared to face a greater distance from home. there are implications of these different preferences for family structure and their long-term sustainability, and how they will be reconciled with each other.
What does the approach also direct analysts to consider?
how norms and values might play a role in policy trajectories, either as initial triggers or by creating self-reinforcing, increasing returns, and positive feedback processes that generate ''logics of appropriateness'' uniting and expanding a political community
What does fostering norms hold potential for?
addressing super wicked problems because they create self-reinforcing processes within international and domestic policy-making arenas
What do norms owe to diffusing across populations?
increasing returns (the benefit of social cohesion) and create positive feedbacks for those early norm entrepreneurs
values and norms beyond attention to fostering short-term, self-interested coalitions, our approach also directs analysts to consider how norms and values might play a role in policy trajectories, either as initial triggers or by creating self-reinforcing, increasing returns, and positive feedback processes that generate ''logics of appropriateness'' uniting and expanding a political community. fostering norms holds potential for addressing super wicked problems because they create self-reinforcing processes within international and domestic policy-making arenas. norms diffuse across populations owing to increasing returns (the benefit of social cohesion) and create positive feedbacks for those early norm entrepreneurs. a focus on norms, moreover, responds to the challenge of fragmented authority and the challenge that those creating the problem are trying to solve it as norms contain an ongoing logic for expansion, much the way slavery and colonialism, in contrast to norms of 100 years ago, are now deemed unacceptable by the vast majority of societies and countries. attention to norms is important for thinking about how to unleash pathways where benefits need not only be targeted to monetary factors. instead, analysts must focus on how they might be able to draw on processes of learning, routinization, and adaptive expectations to trigger positive feedbacks by engraining choices within cognitively accepted cultural expectations of appropriate or legitimate behavior such that they are harder to undo (mahoney 2000 nelson and winter 2002 mintzberg 1978 ). there is no question that such processes, though understudied, can and do occur. hacker's research on us health care policy cited above found that the pathways he documented eventually resulted in a change in attitude among conservative house and senate representatives, further reinforcing a private over public system. legislators' expectations shifted over time so that they came to see private health care as preferable to a public system, even if government money was necessary to fund it (hacker 2002 227). accounting for norms and learning requires that policy makers consider which interventions are more likely to lead groups to adapt their expectations in ways that mean the original intervention becomes accepted as appropriate (i.e., legitimate). there is already some evidence of this occurring, since energy policy is increasingly thought of in terms of carbon intensity, in a way it had not been before climate change gained salience. such a shift was clearly the intention of the senate's american power act bill, and non-state
How was the seed rain estimated within the field ?
using a mechanistic model for seed dispersal from forests to clearings
What does the model simulate ?
average trajectories of seeds from individual trees for any site with known wind regime, species-specific seed descent velocity, and site geometry
seed rain within the field was estimated using a mechanistic model for seed dispersal from forests to clearings (greene and johnson 1996). using relatively well-studied geometry of seed fall and wind flow, the model simulates average trajectories of seeds from individual trees for any site with known wind regime, species-specific seed descent velocity, and site geometry (e.g., stand height, spatial distribution of trees). greene and johnson (1996) validated a general version of this model across several conifer species and sites, and we parameterized it for white pine at the boot lake old field (fig. 1b). while the model cannot describe detailed variation in seed rain over the course of succession, it provides a seed rain index that describes broad seed rain patterns within the old field. we use the term ''seed rain'' throughout the text for brevity. dominant or codominant white pine trees with dbh 20 cm (mean dbh 43 cm) and with live crown tops were defined as potentially seed-bearing pines (cf. greene and johnson 1994, ribbens et al. 1994). while fecundity of any single tree may vary among years, we assumed that variability among individual trees and years cancelled each other, given that our analyses involved broad time periods rather than annual variation. the approximate annual seed production
Between now and when will the world's population increase by one-third?
between now and 2050, the world's population will increase by one-third
Where most will the additional 2 billion people live?
most of these additional 2 billion people will live in developing countries. at the same time, more people will be living in cities
What must agriculture do?
agriculture must therefore transform itself if it is to feed a growing global population and provide the basis for economic growth and poverty reduction. climate change will make this task more difficult under a business-as-usual scenario, due to adverse impacts on agriculture, requiring spiralling adaptation and related costs
between now and 2050, the world's population will increase by one-third. most of these additional 2 billion people will live in developing countries. at the same time, more people will be living in cities. if current income and consumption growth trends continue, fao estimates that agricultural production will have to increase by 60 percent by 2050 to satisfy the expected demands for food and feed. agriculture must therefore transform itself if it is to feed a growing global population and provide the basis for economic growth and poverty reduction. climate change will make this task more difficult under a business-as-usual scenario, due to adverse impacts on agriculture, requiring spiralling adaptation and related costs. to achieve food security and agricultural development goals, adaptation to climate change and lower emission intensities per output will be necessary. this transformation must be accomplished without depletion of the natural resource base. climate change is already having an impact on agriculture and food security as a result of increased prevalence of extreme events and increased unpredictability of weather patterns. this can lead to reductions in production and lower incomes in vulnerable areas. these changes can also affect global food prices. developing countries and smallholder farmers and pastoralists in particular are being especially hard hit by these changes. many of these small-scale producers are already coping with a degraded natural resource base. they often lack knowledge about potential options for adapting their production systems and have limited assets and risk-taking capacity to access and use technologies and financial services. enhancing food security while contributing to mitigate climate change and preserving the natural resource base and vital ecosystem services requires the transition to agricultural production systems that are more productive, use inputs more efficiently, have less variability and greater stability in their outputs, and are more resilient to risks, shocks and long-term climate variability. more productive and more resilient agriculture requires a major shift in the way land, water, soil nutrients and genetic resources are managed to ensure that these resources are used more efficiently. making this shift requires considerable changes in national and local governance, legislation, policies and financial mechanisms. this transformation will also involve improving producers' access to markets. by reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of land and/or agricultural product and increasing carbon sinks, these changes will contribute significantly to the mitigation of climate change.
Which processes are involved with the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere?
as has long been known, the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere involves multiple processes including rapid exchange with the land biosphere and the surface layer of the ocean through air-sea exchange and much slower penetration to the ocean interior that is dependent upon the buffering effect of ocean chemistry along with vertical transport (9-12
as has long been known, the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere involves multiple processes including rapid exchange with the land biosphere and the surface layer of the ocean through air-sea exchange and much slower penetration to the ocean interior that is dependent upon the buffering effect of ocean chemistry along with vertical transport (9-12). on the time scale of a millennium addressed here, the co2 equilibrates largely between the atmosphere and the ocean and, depending on associated increases in acidity and in ocean warming (i.e., an increase in the revelle or ''buffer'' factor, see below), typically  20% of the added tonnes of co2 remain in the atmosphere while  80% are mixed into the ocean. carbon isotope studies provide important observational constraints on these processes and time constants. on multimillenium and longer time scales, geochemical and geological
What do participatory methods rely on?
participatory methods rely on teams of practitioners skilled in animating and facilitating focus group discussions
Who spoke of "the current simplistic understanding of smallholder women as a homogenous group"?
arora-jonsson, 2011
In which area of CSA programmes is there more work needed?
more work is necessary to move the discourse beyond the conceptualization of women as a homogenous group in csa programmes
participatory methods rely on teams of practitioners skilled in animating and facilitating focus group discussions. success depends on practitioners having a thorough understanding of the study context and themes. there is, however, often a trade-off between fl exibility and consistency in multisite studies. the trade-off may be reduced by including time for fi eld practice in trainings so that team members can observe one another and agree on standard practices. in the end, it may not be possible to fully standardize participatory studies when the sites have very different sociocultural pro fi les. 5. conclusions a main challenge for the climate change research community is to move beyond the current simplistic understanding of smallholder women as a homogenous group that is inherently nature-protecting, but unable to adapt to climate change because of their overwhelming vulnerability (arora-jonsson, 2011 ). the use of participatory approaches in climate change adaptation research has been identi fi ed as a way to elucidate beliefs and norms that contribute to gender dynamics (care, 2014 lilja et al., 2001 peterson et al., 2010 ). the tools used in this study provided some insights into women ' s adaptive capacity to deal with climate change in the villages studied in terms of their mobility, access to information and csa labour roles. however, they did not provide the depth of understanding regarding exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity necessary to address women ' s speci fi c vulnerabilities in csa programmes. nor did they elucidate the beliefs and norms contributing to gender dynamics and vulnerability. more work is necessary to move the discourse beyond the conceptualization of women as a homogenous group in csa programmes. revision of the tools to address these weaknesses is recommended. in particular, it is recommended that the tools be improved so that they can capture a variety of voices by splitting participants into more socially differentiated groups, and also that they allow for the probing of the norms, rules and beliefs related to gender and climate change within social groups. disclosure statement no potential con fl ict of interest was reported by the authors.
who were the Astronomer launches solar variability influences on weather
the astronomer royal, william herschel, effectively launched the field of solar variability influences on weather by noticing an anticorrelation between the price of wheat and the number of visible sunspots
when come the observation of correlation between cosmic rays and cloudiness
the observation of a correlation between cosmic rays and cloudiness comes after two centuries of effort to determine the influence of solar variability on earth's weather
the observation of a correlation between cosmic rays and cloudiness comes after two centuries of effort to determine the influence of solar variability on earth's weather. in 1801, the astronomer royal, william herschel, effectively launched the field of solar variability influences on weather by noticing an anticorrelation between the price of wheat and the number of visible sunspots 7 ). since then, numerous studies have shown additional correlations between solar and other geophysical variables 8 ). these include an apparent solar influence (on various time scales) on temperatures, thunderstorm frequency, tropopause heights, atmospheric circulation, and occurrence of drought, to name but a few. whereas many of the studies have been based on correlations with the sunspot number, the most persuasive evidence for a solar effect on climate change has emerged from recent palaeoclimatic studies based on the cosmic ray archives provided by the14c records in tree rings and10be concentrations in ice cores 9 10 ). of course, the cosmic ray-climate correlations observed in these studies cannot in general distinguish between a direct cosmic ray effect on the climate and a solar irradiance effect, for which the cosmic rays act as a proxy. three principal mechanisms have been suggested to link solar variability with changes in earth's weather. the first, originally proposed by herschel, is that changes in total solar irradiance provide a variable heat input to the lower atmosphere. relatively recent measurements of the solar irradiance have shown the sun's output to vary by about 0.1% on decadal time scales 11 12 ), which is sufficient to account for a solar-induced global average temperature change of about 0.1 k 13 ). the second suggested forcing mechanism is through the solar ultraviolet radiation, which varies by several percent
What was the recorded tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean region in 2005?
the north atlantic ocean (natl) region experienced unprecedented tropical cyclone activity in 2005, with records including 28 named systems, 14 hurricanes (of which 7 were major hurricanes), 3 category 5 hurricanes and 2 category 4 hurricanes in july
How many times the was the long-term seasonal means for tropical cyclones?
the number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes was, respectively, 2.5 and 2.2 times the long-term seasonal means
How many times was the long-term seasonal means for hurricanes?
the number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes was, respectively, 2.5 and 2.2 times the long-term seasonal means
the north atlantic ocean (natl) region experienced unprecedented tropical cyclone activity in 2005, with records including 28 named systems, 14 hurricanes (of which 7 were major hurricanes), 3 category 5 hurricanes and 2 category 4 hurricanes in july. the number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes was, respectively, 2.5 and 2.2 times the long-term seasonal means, and the previous record for overall tropical cyclone numbers was exceeded by 33%. while the entire season was active, august and september, each with five tropical cyclones, were below previous records. the truly anomalous months were july and october, with five and six tropical cyclones, respectively. october experienced
Define Adaption?
adaptation is the process by which beneficial, heritable traits evolve through the agency of natural selection acting via differential survival and reproduction
What is natural selection?
ifferences in fitness must occur because of differences in possession of the hypothesised adaptation in a common environment
What is Phylogeny?
the hypothesised adaptive state must have evolved in the context of the hypothesised cause. requires phylogenetic analyses
adaptation is the process by which beneficial, heritable traits evolve through the agency of natural selection acting via differential survival and reproduction. biologists, however, have often confused 'realised fitness' (or relative reproductive success) with that expected on the basis of design. this is a crucial point when attempting to decide whether a given trait is an adaptation. george c. williams highlighted the importance of design considerations in evolutionary theory and noted that 'evolutionary adaptation is a special and onerous concept that should not be used unnecessarily, and an effect (a fitness-increasing use to which a trait is put) should not be called a function (a designed fitnessincreasing use) unless it is clearly produced by design and not by chance'. thus, when claiming that a trait is an adaptation, it must be at least the relatively best engineering solution to a problem bearing on the survival of the organism, and have been produced by natural selection (i.e. by preferential survival of organisms expressing the trait). this rigorous use of the term 'adaptation' contrasts with the common practice to assume that any distinctive feature of an organism that is associated with a reproductive advantage for its bearers (i.e. realised fitness) is an adaptation in an engineering sense. the term 'exaptation' was coined by gould and vrba in 1982 to account for situations in which a trait enhances fitness in a given environment but has not evolved through the action of natural selection in that environment. a trait might thus have evolved, for example, in response to aridity or nutrient-impoverished soils, and then confer survival value in a subsequent fire-prone environment. to distinguish between adaptation and exaptation, the following four criteria were proposed by brent d. mishler that must be satisfied before any trait can be accepted as an adaptation: (i) engineering design: the structure must function in the hypothesised way. requires a functional test. (ii) heritability: differences between organisms must be passed on to the offspring, at least probabilistically. requires heritability tests (e.g. parent - offspring correlations and common garden studies). (iii) natural selection: differences in fitness must occur because of differences in possession of the hypothesised adaptation in a common environment. requires fitness tests. (iv) phylogeny: the hypothesised adaptive state must have evolved in the context of the hypothesised cause. requires phylogenetic analyses.
What the article about?
he principle of the thermal dynamics modeling can easily be described with a small example as given in figure 1. the room can be thought of as network of first-order systems, where the nodes are the states x and these are representing the room
a. building model for computing the building-wide energy use it is common practice to sum the energy uses of single rooms or building zones we follow this approach and focus on the dynamics of a single room. we first explain the building thermal dynamics in detail and then the different actuators. remark 1: illuminance and co2 concentration were modeled by instantaneous responses since the time constants involved were much smaller than the hourly time step employed for our modeling and simulations and modelling details of these are ommitted for brevity. the interested reader can find the details on this in the principle of the thermal dynamics modeling can easily be described with a small example as given in figure 1. the room can be thought of as network of first-order systems, where the nodes are the states x and these are representing the room temperature or the temperatures in the walls, floor or ceiling. then the heat transfer rate is given by dq dt kie * the - thi) = dq dthi  ci
What has current climate-change policy been designed on?
the basis of the current economic structures and how marginal emissions reductions can be made from this starting point
What is the aim of current climate-change policy?
to reduce emissions towards future targets--notably, in 2020 and 2050
What could be considered a containable warming?
two degrees
current climate-change policy has been designed on the basis of the current economic structures and how marginal emissions reductions can be made from this starting point. it begins with where we are and then aims to reduce emissions towards future targets--notably, in 2020 and 2050. these, in turn, are based upon an overarching global ambition to halt the rise of emissions to around 450-550 ppm co2e, a concentration that is roughly linked to limiting global warming to around 2*centigrade. there is no convincing analysis to suggest that this is an 'optimal' target, but rather an assumption that it could, in principle, be achieved and that two degrees may be a containable warming, which will not trigger rapid subsequent change.
For what we can use Inorganic electron acceptors, such as SO4 2 -or CO2?
so4 2 -or co2, are used in the oxidation process of organic matter under anaerobic conditions
Write differents types of Methane production  in different natural environments.
swamps, soil, river sediments, lakes and seas, as well as in the digestive organs of ruminant animals
What is the redox potential of ruminant animals?
the redox potential is around - 300 mv
inorganic electron acceptors, such as so4 2 -or co2, are used in the oxidation process of organic matter under anaerobic conditions. methane formation does not occur in mediums where oxygen, nitrate or sulfate is readily available as electron acceptors. methane production occurs in different natural environments, such as swamps, soil, river sediments, lakes and seas, as well as in the digestive organs of ruminant animals, where the redox potential is around - 300 mv. it is estimated that anaerobic digestion with methane formation is responsible for the complete mineralisation of 5 to 10% of all the organic matter available on the earth. anaerobicdigestionrepresentsanaccuratelybalancedecologicalsystem,where different populations of microorganisms present specialised functions, and the breakdown of organic compounds is usually considered a two-stage process. in the first stage, a group of facultative and anaerobic bacteria converts (by hydrolysis and fermentation) the complex organic compounds (carbohydrates, proteins and lipids) into simpler organic materials, mainly volatile fatty acids (vfa), as well as carbon dioxide and hydrogen gases. in the second stage, the organic acids and hydrogen are converted into methane and carbon dioxide. this conversion is performed by a special group of microorganisms, named methanogens, which are strictly anaerobic prokaryotes. the methanogenic archaea depend on the substrate provided by the acid-forming microorganisms, consisting, therefore, in a syntrophic interaction. the methanogens carry out two primordial functions in the anaerobic ecosystems:theyproduceaninsolublegas(methane)whichenablestheremovaloforganic
In recreational waters, what is expected to expand the geographic range of Vibrio species?
in recreational waters, projected increases in sea surface temperatures are expected to lengthen the seasonal window of growth and expand geographic range of vibrio species
What will increase the likelihood of exposure to Vibrio in recreational waters?
longer seasons and expansion of vibrio into areas where it had not previously been will increase the likelihood of exposure to vibrio in recreational waters
How might projected increases in hurricane intensity and rainfall change human exposure risk in newly affected areas?
such increases may redistribute toxic blooms of k. brevis ("red tide" blooms) into new geographic locations, which would change human exposure risk in newly affected areas
in recreational waters, projected increases in sea surface temperatures are expected to lengthen the seasonal window of growth and expand geographic range of vibrio species,96, 132 although the certainty of regional projections is affected by underlying model structure.133 while the specific response of vibrio and degree of growth may vary by species and locale, in general, longer seasons and expansion of vibrio into areas where it had not previously been will increase the likelihood of exposure to vibrio in recreational waters. regional climate changes that affect coastal salinity (such as flooding, drought, and sea level rise) can also affect the population dynamics of these agents,97, 99, 134 with implications for human exposure risk. increases in hurricane intensity and rainfall are projected as the climate continues to warm (see ch 4: extreme events). such increases may redistribute toxic blooms of k. brevis ("red tide" blooms) into new geographic locations, which would change human exposure risk in newly affected areas. fish and shellfish water-related contaminants as well as naturally occurring harmful bacteria and algae can be accumulated by fish or shellfish, providing a route of human exposure through consumption (see also ch. 7: food safety).135, 136, 137 shellfish, including oysters, are often consumed raw or very lightly cooked, which increases the potential for ingestion of an infectious pathogen.138
When does  algae thrive?
during the warm summer season or when water temperatures are higher than usual
How harmful is freshwater cyanobacteria and dinoflagellate species?
freshwater cyanobacteria that can contaminate drinking water and marine dinoflagellate species that can contaminate fish and shellfish with natural toxins
How does climate change effect marine life in United States?
increase the burden of some marine hab-related diseases, particularly ciguatera fish poisoning, in some regions of the united states
most harmful algae, including freshwater cyanobacteria that can contaminate drinking water and marine dinoflagellate species that can contaminate fish and shellfish with natural toxins, thrive during the warm summer season or when water temperatures are higher than usual. as the climate continues to warm, water temperatures will rise above thresholds that promote bloom development earlier in the spring and will persist longer into the fall and expand into higher latitudes. this will result in a longer seasonal window and expanded geographic range for human exposure into higher latitudes.124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193 climate change, especially continued warming, will increase the burden of some marine hab-related diseases, particularly ciguatera fish poisoning, in some regions of the united states. major uncertainties uncertainty remains regarding the relative importance of additional factors that may also act on naturally occurring pathogens and harmful algae at local or regional levels to influence their growth, distribution, and toxicity. in many cases, it is uncertain how these multiple factors may interact with each other to influence the seasonal windows and geographic range for pathogens and harmful algae, especially in dynamic coastal marine environments. for example, changes in salinity, competition with other plankton, and presence of viruses or other organisms that consume plankton or bacteria can affect abundance.162, 163 changing distribution patterns for some marine species of harmful algae is not well understood and some regions may become too warm for certain species of harmful algae to grow, shifting (without changing in total size) or even shrinking their geographic range. additionally, there are limited studies on projections for changes in illness rates due to naturally occurring waterborne pathogens and harmful algae. uncertainty remains regarding appropriate methods for projecting changes in illness rates, including how to integrate considerations of human behavior into modeling (current methods to assess exposure risk
During the start-up procedure does the reactor rise refer to?
i) inoculation, (ii) feeding with wastewater and (iii) monitoring of the process
How can inoculation be done?
the inoculation can be done with the reactor either full or empty, although the inoculation is preferable with the reactor empty, to reduce sludge losses during the transfer process
What type of reactor does the article refer to?
anaerobic reactors
graphical representation of seed sludge volumes necessary for the start-up of an uasb reactor, considering the conditions of example 28.2 and different seed sludge concentrations 798 anaerobic reactors (e) procedure during the start-up of an anaerobic reactor the procedure during the start-up of the reactor refers mainly to: (i) inoculation, (ii) feeding with wastewater and (iii) monitoring of the process. inoculation of the reactor the inoculation can be done with the reactor either full or empty, although the inoculation is preferable with the reactor empty, to reduce sludge losses during the transfer process. for this second situation, the following procedures can be adopted:
What are the research handle by this institution?
recently, extensive research on climate impacts on landscape and regional scales has been stimulated in part by policies that require institutional action to mitigate and adapt to climate change [14,195
what is the purpose of accessibility of data?
the development of metrics and indicators to track responses of climate change and ecosystem services is accelerating with broader recognition of the need for greater accessibility of data
what is climate-change policies?
formation of more types of socioecological assessments [203-205] and charting of the progress of climate-change policies
recently, extensive research on climate impacts on landscape and regional scales has been stimulated in part by policies that require institutional action to mitigate and adapt to climate change [14,195]. such research includes use of remote sensing to analyse land-use mosaics, inventory approaches to assessing c stocks and water resources, and models to examine the potential of landuse change in different climate scenarios [196-198]. these techniques are being combined with farmand field-scale data on crop performance, soil biogeochemistry and irrigation use to analyse if and how mitigation and/or adaptation strategies build food security and ecosystem services [34,199-201]. interdisciplinary science underpins an integrated landscape approach, along with involvement of stakeholders who hold key information for developing climate-change scenarios and innovation pathways [202,203]. landscape approaches that expand beyond agriculture itself are needed to understand how extreme events trigger rural outmigration and create new types of rural - urban connections. the development of metrics and indicators to track responses of climate change and ecosystem services is accelerating with broader recognition of the need for greater accessibility of data, formation of more types of socioecological assessments [203-205] and charting of the progress of climate-change policies.
What is impossible to establish?
a good radiometric chronology
What does the diagram in Fig 1. show?
the age range of the method, limiting the dating to approximately the last 120 years
What was not shown in Fig 1.?
dates are also subject to uncertainty associated with the random nature of radioactive decay and the age of the sediment
for many eutrophic lakes standard radiometric dating methods perform well although occasionally it can be impossible to establish a good radiometric chronology. age-depth relationships for the cores used in this study (table 1) and described in the papers in this special section are shown in fig. 1. all except myvatn are based on 210pb dating. for myvatn historical tephra layers from eruptions of the veidivotn and grimsvotn central volcanoes were the only reliable chronological markers available (e.g.hauptfleisch et al ., 2012). the diagram (fig. 1) shows the age range of the method, limiting the dating to approximately the last 120 years, a limit imposed by 6 6 the half-life of 210pb. dates are also subject to uncertainty associated with the random nature of radioactive decay and the age of the sediment (not shown in fig. 1). typically the standard error varies from +/3 to 5 years for very recent sediments to +/20 years for older (70-100 yr) sediments.
What climate changes did the farmers perceive?
the farmers in the study area perceived20that the climate conditions appeared to be changing toward warmer conditions on average
What does this section discuss?
this section discusses what the effects of the changing climate conditions have been and who has been affected according to the farmers
What timeframe is included in the discussion?
a timeframe of thirty years ago to present (about 1978-2008) was imposed
b men and women experience changes in climate variability differently the farmers in the study area perceived20that the climate conditions appeared to be changing toward warmer conditions on average and the recorded data supports this. this section discusses what the effects of the changing climate conditions have been and who has been affected according to the farmers. note that a timeframe of thirty years ago to present (about 1978-2008) was imposed so that all of the respondents could contribute, as opposed to the discussion on general climate trends presented in the previous section. farming activities are affected by changes in weather21
What unleashes the wave of innovation?
in the longer term, climate change policy will unleash a wave of innovation as firms reposition themselves and seek to exploit carbon opportunities. jobs will be created in research and the development of low-carbon technologies
What is the core argument?
the core of the argument is that the arrival of new technologies with wide-ranging applications (such as information technology or, earlier, the steam engine) will trigger a process of technology diffusion, adaptation and experimentation. the need to adopt the new technology will create a wave of secondary innovations as industries adjust their processes and adapt the technology to their specific requirements
What is the growth theory?
growth theory has long identified technical change and innovation as a major source of economic growth. skill-biased technical change is a major factor in explaining labour market developments over the last few decades in both europe and the usa - including changes in wage income (through productivity growth), job creation (through expansion) but also wage inequality (since some low-productivity jobs remain
in the longer term, climate change policy will unleash a wave of innovation as firms reposition themselves and seek to exploit carbon opportunities. jobs will be created in research and the development of low-carbon technologies. over time, the results of this research will generate new investment and further job opportunities. what these will be and how this would differ from what would have happened without these policies is hard to predict. what is not in doubt, however, is the powerful effect that innovation and technical change can have on productivity and economic growth. growth theory has long identified technical change and innovation as a major source of economic growth. skill-biased technical change is a major factor in explaining labour market developments over the last few decades in both europe and the usa - including changes in wage income (through productivity growth), job creation (through expansion) but also wage inequality (since some low-productivity jobs remain). the core of the argument is that the arrival of new technologies with wide-ranging applications (such as information technology or, earlier, the steam engine) will trigger a process of technology diffusion, adaptation and experimentation. the need to adopt the new technology will create a wave of secondary innovations as industries adjust their processes and adapt the technology to their specific requirements. this process, which may take place over a long period of time, will increase the demand for (skilled) labour (aghion, 2001). in time, this process of creative destruction will increase productivity across the economy. from a policy point of view, evidence that (skillbiased) innovation triggers job growth and productivity gains is only the first step in the chain of argument. there is a second part to the argument that is equally important: evidence that good policy can trigger innovation. there is a fair amount of theoretical and model-based literature that asserts this (see, for instance, nordhaus, 2002; sue wing, 2006; and the 2006 special issue of energy journal ), but actual empirical evidence is rare. one of the few empirical studies is that of popp (2002), who used 1970-1994 us patent data to show that higher energy prices have had a significant impact on energy-saving
How many methods did we use in this project?
we applied statistical downscaling based on 1/16-degree gridded historic observed temperature and precipitation (elsner et al. 2009, this report) using two methods
What is the first method we used?
the first is a simple "delta method" where the observed daily temperature and precipitation from the period 1970-1999 are perturbed to produce fine-scale projections of the future (e.g. loaiciga, 2000; lettenmaier and gan, 1990), by computing monthly mean changes in average pnw temperature and percent change in precipitation for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s
What was the second method used?
we then apply these perturbations, or deltas, to the 1/16-degree historic data to form future climate change scenarios
for this project, we applied statistical downscaling based on 1/16-degree gridded historic observed temperature and precipitation (elsner et al. 2009, this report) using two methods. the first is a simple "delta method" where the observed daily temperature and precipitation from the period 1970-1999 are perturbed to produce fine-scale projections of the future (e.g. loaiciga, 2000; lettenmaier and gan, 1990), by computing monthly mean changes in average pnw temperature and percent change in precipitation for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. we then apply these perturbations, or deltas, to the 1/16-degree historic data to form future climate change scenarios. at each grid point, the regional temperature delta is added to the observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the regional precipitation delta is multiplied by the
The position of what has been suggested as a sensitive indicator of climate change?
the position of the tree limit has been suggested as a sensitive indicator of climate change (kullman 1998), because an improved climate would be expected to rapidly influence growth of established individuals
What other characteristic has also been suggested as an indicator of climate change?
nevertheless, treeline position has also been suggested as an indicator of climate change
the position of the tree limit has been suggested as a sensitive indicator of climate change (kullman 1998), because an improved climate would be expected to rapidly influence growth of established individuals. it is less clear whether the position of the treeline would respond as quickly as the tree limit to a changed climate as this would involve dieback of trees or establishment of new individuals. nevertheless, treeline position has also been suggested as an indicator of climate change (holten and carey 1992). what is clear, however, is that climate change has the potential to affect the position of the treeline. this will have consequences for land use in the region, especially for reindeer husbandry and tourism, and may also have long-term consequences for biodiversity conservation. for example, increased afforestation will increase the probability of insect attack on the reindeer, with consequent negative effects on animal growth (danell et al. 1999, hagemoen and reimers 2002). furthermore, a decrease in the area of open heath will reduce recreational and aesthetical values with negative effects on the summer tourist industry in the swedish mountain region, and a reduced and fragmented alpine zone will probably increase the extinction rates of alpine species (bruun and moen 2003).
How can the distribution for climate sensitivity x T y 2 [?] be found?
a probability distribution for climate sensitivity x t y 2 [?] can then be found using the law of total probability (rougier (2007) eq. 8
How is  probability distribution for climate sensitivity approximated?
a probability distribution for climate sensitivity x t y 2 [?] can then be found using the law of total probability (rougier (2007) eq. 8), which we approximate by a monte carlo estimate
Why hinders the estimation of all possible sources of 17 structural error?
we lack sufficient information to estimate all possible sources of 17 structural error and assume for tractability that the net covariance between the paleoclimate and future climate state, in both measurement error and structural error, is zero (see rougier 2007, section 6.3
1.0degc. though we describe the absence of a coupled dust model as a source of structural error, we note that it could equally be described as an absent forcing; the analytical approach is not affected by this distinction. a probability distribution for climate sensitivity x t y 2 [?] can then be found using the law of total probability (rougier (2007) eq. 8), which we approximate by a monte carlo estimate. although some aspects of structural error may covary between different climate states, we lack sufficient information to estimate all possible sources of 17 structural error and assume for tractability that the net covariance between the paleoclimate and future climate state, in both measurement error and structural error, is zero (see rougier 2007, section 6.3). in this case
Earlier study relied on what method in weather Variation ?
early studies relied on cross-sectional variation in weather or climate in different locations to explain variation in the outcome variable of interest
what does second Approach focus?
second approach that focuses on a panel data analysis, which controls for space and time-fixed effects (e.g., auffhammer, ramanathan, and vincent 2006; deschenes
we turn next to a discussion of the five main pitfalls of using these weather data products in econometric settings and how to avoid them. in order to examine these issues it is important to understand that s tudies on the economic impacts of climate change on economic sectors (e.g., agriculture) have used two distinct approaches to estimate response functions. first, early studies relied on cross-sectional variation in weather or climate in different locations to explain variation in the outcome variable of interest (e.g., kelly, kolstad, and mitchell 2005; mendelsohn, nordhaus, and shaw 1994). however, one limitation of the cross-sectional approach is that there may be unobservable variables that vary across these spatial units, which are likely correlated with the climate/weather indicator used. therefore, recent studies have adopted a second approach that focuses on a panel data analysis, which controls for space and time-fixed effects (e.g., auffhammer, ramanathan, and vincent 2006; deschenes and
Wastewater Stormwater drainage comes from what areas?
woods and forests
Wastewater Stormwater drainage transports a lower quantity of what?
phosphorus
What is the greatest source of phosphorus?
domestic sewage transported by waterborne sewerage systems
wastewater stormwater drainage from areas with ample vegetation coverage, such as woods and forests, transports a lower quantity of phosphorus. in these areas, phosphorus is not in excess in the environment, since the ecosystem is close to an equilibrium, without having large excesses or scarcities of the main elements. drainage from agricultural areas leads to higher and more variable p loads, depending on the soil retention capacity, irrigation, type of fertilisers and climatic conditions. urban drainage is associated with the highest loads. domestic sewage transported by waterborne sewerage systems is usually the greatest source of phosphorus. phosphorus can be found in human wastes, household detergents and other by-products of human activities. regarding industrial wastewater, the generalisation of its contribution is difficult because of the variability of the various industrial wastewaters, even within the same industrial processing activity. impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 145
Is climate change likely to increase or decrease global health inequalities?
many of the most serious public health consequences of climate change will be experienced by the world's poorest nations, increasing global health inequities.20
What are the three underlying determinants of global illness and premature death that will be exacerbated by climate change?
overall, all the underlying social, economic, and ecological determinants of global illness and premature death will be exacerbated
many of the most serious public health consequences of climate change will be experienced by the world's poorest nations, increasing global health inequities.20 basic infrastructure for much of the world's population is inadequate to meet essential health care needs, and our ability to cope eff ectively with the aftermath of natural disasters is insuffi cient. overall, all the underlying social, economic, and ecological determinants of global illness and premature death will be exacerbated by climate change.20 progress towards the millennium development goals and achievement of the 2015 targets might be impaired or reversed. because climate change acts mostly as an amplifi er of existing risks to health, poor and disadvantaged people will experience greater increments in disease burden than rich, less vulnerable populations.24,26
What is the article protected by?
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. attitudes to investments and technology adoption
What are some work done?
some work has been done on this (see, for example, willock et al., 1999; solano et al., 2000), but more in-depth studies on this topic are needed, because increasing adoption rates of key practices under risk is a significant challenge, and targeting options to risk management profiles is essential
What are the national and global scale?
the national and global scales, more sophisticated output is needed from global and regional economic models concerning welfare gains and losses arising from different policy action, and how changes in welfare from gradual climate change and climate shocks are differentially distributed among different groups in society, such as producers and urban poor, and men and women (skoufias et al., 2011
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. attitudes to investments and technology adoption. some work has been done on this (see, for example, willock et al., 1999; solano et al., 2000), but more in-depth studies on this topic are needed, because increasing adoption rates of key practices under risk is a significant challenge, and targeting options to risk management profiles is essential. at the national and global scales, more sophisticated output is needed from global and regional economic models concerning welfare gains and losses arising from different policy action, and how changes in welfare from gradual climate change and climate shocks are differentially distributed among different groups in society, such as producers and urban poor, and men and women (skoufias et al., 2011).
How many modules are there in the plant?
75% of the plant (3 modules, of a total of 4 modules
During which year should the second stage enter into operation?
up to year 5 only, when the second stage should enter into operation
Would there be any benefit to staging in this scenario?
although staging is generally advantageous, the benefits in this case are relatively small
because the population, flow and load reach in year 5 around 75% of the total final value, the alternative is for the implementation of the first stage comprising 75% of the plant (3 modules, of a total of 4 modules). however, the reach of this first stage is very small, up to year 5 only, when the second stage should enter into operation, until the end of the project (year 20), completing the remaining module (fourth module, in parallel with the others). although staging is generally advantageous, the benefits in this case are relatively small, because of the need of implementing 75% of the works in the first stage, for only a 5-year period. it is probable that already in year 4 of operation the plant would be in construction works again, associated with the implementation of the units of stage 2. therefore, it is unlikely that staging in this plant will be advantageous.
Damage functions are what?
damage functions are "the most speculative element of the analysis" of the economics of climate change pindyck 2013 p. 862
The various problems of modelling uncertainty and distributional considerations in particular come from where?
the various problems of modelling uncertainty and distributional considerations in particular come home to roost and exacerbate our ability to develop plausible damage functions
Limitations in our ability to model technological change and innovation also do not help, in that our ability to adapt to climate change and hence reduce the damage is also likely to be what?
limitations in our ability to model technological change and innovation also do not help, in that our ability to adapt to climate change and hence reduce the damage is also likely to be a strong function of our ability to develop new technologies.4
damage functions are "the most speculative element of the analysis" of the economics of climate change pindyck 2013 p. 862). sadly, it is also one of the most important to determining the social costs of climate change, and hence the aggressiveness (or otherwise) of the optimal economic response. the various problems of modelling uncertainty and distributional considerations in particular come home to roost and exacerbate our ability to develop plausible damage functions. limitations in our ability to model technological change and innovation also do not help, in that our ability to adapt to climate change and hence reduce the damage is also likely to be a strong function of our ability to develop new technologies.4
What are the directions include better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts?
i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes
Why are plankton important to marine ecosystems?
increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton
What  summarize recent research results?
here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. we suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes
increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. the extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. we suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes. keywords: plankton; phenology; life history; climate change
How is clouds are formed?
ocean and land surface evaporate water, which then moves around with winds in the atmosphere, condenses to form clouds
In what forms does water returns to earth after evaporation?
as rain or snow
How are hydrological extreme events defined?
as floods and droughts
heated by the sun's radiation, the ocean and land surface evaporate water, which then moves around with winds in the atmosphere, condenses to form clouds, and falls back to the earth's surface as rain or snow, only for some of it to flow to oceans via rivers, thereby completing the global hydrological (water) cycle. hydrological extreme events are typically defined as floods and droughts floods are associated with extremes in rainfall (from tropical storms, thunderstorms, orographic rainfall, widespread extratropical cyclones, etc.), while drought is associated with a lack of precipitation and often extreme high temperatures that contribute to drying. floods are often fairly local and develop on short timescales, while droughts are extensive and develop over months or years. both can be mitigated: floods by good drainage systems and drought by irrigation, for instance. nonetheless, daily newspaper headlines of floods and droughts reflect the critical importance of the water cycle, in particular, precipitation, in human affairs. flood damage estimates are in the billions of us dollars annually, with thousands of lives lost, while drought costs are of similar magnitude and often lead to devastating wildfires and heat waves. an example is the extreme drought in california in 2007 that set the stage for the costly extensive wildfires in october 2007, with over 2000 houses burned and about 1 million people displaced. the loss of life and property from extreme hydrological events has therefore caused society to focus on the causes and predictability of these events. tropical cyclones typically have the highest property damage loss of any extreme event, and are therefore of great interest to state and local disaster preparedness organizations, as well as the insurance industry (murnane, 2004). precipitation varies from year to year and over decades, and changes in amount, intensity, frequency, and type (e.g. snow vs rain) affect the environment and society. steady moderate rains soak into the soil and benefit plants, while the same rainfall amounts in a short period of time may cause local flooding and runoff, leaving soils much drier at the end of the day. snow may remain on the ground for some months before it melts and there is runoff. these examples highlight the fact that the characteristics of precipitation are just as vital as the amount in terms
What the main map depicts?
the main map depicts areas of sea level rise at 1 and 2 meters (dark and light blue, respectively) on a population density map with urban extents delineated
What is the size of the population that the Mekong delta supported?
the mekong delta supported a population of 28.5 million in 2000, out of which 14.2 million lived in areas that would be inundated by a 2m sea level rise
What does the upper left inset map shows?
the upper left inset map shows the area flooded in the year 2000 when unusually widespread monsoon floods deluged nearly 800,000 sq. km of land in cambodia, vietnam, thailand, and laos
the main map depicts areas of sea level rise at 1 and 2 meters (dark and light blue, respectively) on a population density map with urban extents delineated. it also shows the regions of the each-for study areas. the mekong delta supported a population of 28.5 million in 2000, out of which 14.2 million lived in areas that would be inundated by a 2m sea level rise. the upper left inset map shows the area flooded in the year 2000 when unusually widespread monsoon floods deluged nearly 800,000 sq. km of land in cambodia, vietnam, thailand, and laos. the inset map below it shows the distribution of agricultural lands. the delta has 3 million ha of agricultural lands, of which 1.4 million ha would be inundated by a 2 meter sea level rise. resettlement programs are already underway in some areas of the delta, and could become more widespread under certain sea level rise scenarios.
What is the concern of most researchs concentrated in ?
most research is concentrated within the secondary school years, covering a number of student outcomes including achievement, problem behaviors, and mental health
why does most elementary school studies largely examine classroom climate in relation to outcomes ?
furthermore, most elementary school studies largely examine classroom climate in relation to outcomes, possibly due to the fact that younger children spend most of their time in one classroom with one teacher
were younger children reliable reporters of their perceptions of school cimate ?
younger children may also be less reliable reporters of their perceptions of school climate
a number of temporal issues warrant further attention. the most pressing of which concerns researchers ' limited understanding of how school climate shapes student outcomes over time. for instance, school climate has been examined across the elementary, middle, and high school years, but studies of outcomes have not been spread equally over the three age periods. most research is concentrated within the secondary school years, covering a number of student outcomes including achievement, problem behaviors, and mental health. limited existing research on the elementary school has focused largely on achievement, behavioral problems, and social skills, while much less work has centered on psychological and emotional adjustment. furthermore, most elementary school studies largely examine classroom climate in relation to outcomes, possibly due to the fact that younger children spend most of their time in one classroom with one teacher. younger children may also be less reliable reporters of their perceptions of school climate. this leads to the question of whether classroom climate is actually a better predictor of developmental outcomes for younger children, while school
Do conceptual frameworks have an important role?
conceptual frameworks have a particularly important role to play in developing process-based approaches to measuring vulnerability
According to World Economic Forum 2002 what does simplification enable?
simplification, if successful, enables the investigation of the most important interactions (world economic forum 2002
What does Blalock observe?
blalock (1984) observes, however, that when links between phenomena are well understood, measurement can be direct, but that in social sciences, social mechanisms are multivariate and indeterminate
conceptual frameworks have a particularly important role to play in developing process-based approaches to measuring vulnerability. cutter (2003) argues that the development of vulnerability indicators has been hindered by a lack of conceptual development regarding, for example, the most appropriate metrics and scale. taking scale as a starting point, it is inevitable that simplifying assumptions will be necessary in developing aggregate indices at, for example, the national level (world economic forum 2002; jollands and patterson 2003). though the breaking down of complex systems and causations of environmental change into components has sometimes been criticized as reductionist (gustafsson 1998), simplification, if successful, enables the investigation of the most important interactions (world economic forum 2002). indicators of sustainability, for example, attempt to capture complex and diverse processes in relatively few measures (bell and morse 1999). there may not be agreement on which assumptions to use, however, nor may they be obvious or made explicit. the complexity of processes shaping vulnerability may render it tempting to give up conceptualising the understanding of vulnerability that we argue must underlie the selection of indicators. blalock (1984) observes, however, that when links between phenomena are well understood, measurement can be direct, but that in social sciences, social mechanisms are multivariate and indeterminate. precisely because of the complexity, it is all the more important to outline a conceptual framework so that assumptions about how processes shape vulnerability underlying indicator selection can be assessed. the development of a conceptual framework is particularly important in national-level indicator studies in order to facilitate the use of aggregate data 512 s.h. eriksen and p.m. kelly
the tolerance to different drivers may be?
uncorrelated or negatively correlated
the smaller population sizes from reduced immigration
impaired the ability of populations to adapt to warming
conversely, the tolerance to different drivers may be uncorrelated or negatively correlated. if negatively correlated, then genetic variation eroded by selection from one driver will reduce the capacity to adapt to the other.139,140for example, in a microcosm experiment mora et al.127found that population declines caused by reduced immigration and environmental warming were up to 36 times worse when these drivers occurred simultaneously. they speculated the smaller population sizes from reduced immigration may have impaired the ability of populations to adapt to warming. however, an alternative hypothesis would be that tolerance to environmental warming is negatively correlated with fecundity or development time.141
How does magnitudes differ for satellite-based vegetation phenology?
it has also been suggested that the magnitudes of the satellite derived phenological trends differ dramatically among studies because of the different methods used to retrieve spring vegetation green-up date (white et al. 2009). for instance, applying the timesat method, zeng et al. (2011) estimated that spring vegetation green-up date over north america has advanced by about 0.3 days per decade, which is only 20% of the advanced rate (-1.3 days per decade) derived by zhu et al. (2011) based on piecewise logistic method
What are the uncertainties for satellite-based vegetation phenology?
our results also support that methods could induce large uncertainties in the magnitude of trends inferred from satellite-based vegetation phenology, although the overall patterns in vegetation green-up date trends from the five methods we used were relatively consistent
Who detected the largest trend of vegetation green-up?
the largest earlier trend of vegetation green-up date (1.9 days/decade) detected by the gaussian and
it has also been suggested that the magnitudes of the satellite derived phenological trends differ dramatically among studies because of the different methods used to retrieve spring vegetation green-up date (white et al. 2009). for instance, applying the timesat method, zeng et al. (2011) estimated that spring vegetation green-up date over north america has advanced by about 0.3 days per decade, which is only 20% of the advanced rate (-1.3 days per decade) derived by zhu et al. (2011) based on piecewise logistic method. our results also support that methods could induce large uncertainties in the magnitude of trends inferred from satellite-based vegetation phenology, although the overall patterns in vegetation green-up date trends from the five methods we used were relatively consistent. the largest earlier trend of vegetation green-up date (1.9 days/decade) detected by the gaussian and
What makes PAGE2002 comprehensive?
it includes estimates of market impacts, non-market impacts and the risk of large-scale discontinuities or 'catastrophes', making it as comprehensive as any of its peers
What procedure is used to estimate probabilities?
it is stochastic, using a monte carlo procedure to estimate probabilities
What does it reflect?
and it is calibrated to reflect the range of disagreement and uncertainty in the underlying scientific and economic literatures
in the review, we chose to carry out some of our own modelling, using the page2002 iam (hope, 2006). in estimating climate risks as fully as the then state-of-the-art allowed, page2002 offered a number of advantages. it includes estimates of market impacts, non-market impacts and the risk of large-scale discontinuities or 'catastrophes', making it as comprehensive as any of its peers. it is stochastic, using a monte carlo procedure to estimate probabilities. and it is calibrated to reflect the range of disagreement and uncertainty in the underlying scientific and economic literatures. consequently, it yields estimates of the simple cost of climate change at a particular temperature or point in time that are close to the centre of the range of estimates produced by other models (see figure 2). thus, contrary to the impression some critics have sought to create (e.g. byatt et al ., 2006; mendelsohn [citation]), the review's modelling is not inconsistent with the underlying literature in its quantification of the cost of climate change.14 where it does differ is, first, in formally modelling a wider range of possible temperature changes, and, second, in explicitly modelling aversion to the most severe climate risks.
What NOAA's means?
national climatic data center
In witch year Romania had an upward trend until it peaked at 67,727 station-days in
1988
What  suggests the fall and decreased  of the Iron Curtain in 1989 ?
this suggests that the results from a difference-in-difference analysis of how, for example, farmers responded to weather shocks before and after the fall of the iron curtain would have to be interpreted with caution
to examine this issue in more detail, we downloaded daily data from the global summary of the day database maintained by noaa's national climatic data center (noaa 2011a), counted the number of days a weather station within a country had nonmissing observations, and summed it across all stations. this provides the total count of daily station-level observations in a country. while most countries show an upward trend in this measure over time, the results for some transition countries are striking. for example, romania had an upward trend until it peaked at 67,727 station-days in 1988. following the fall of the iron curtain in 1989, the number decreased rapidly until it stabilized around 11,000 station-days in 2003-2007, decreasing coverage by a factor of 6. this suggests that the results from a difference-in-difference analysis of how, for example, farmers responded to weather shocks before and after the fall of the iron curtain would have to be interpreted with caution. in summary, when using any of the gridded data products available, it is crucial to determine whether the underlying station data have changed over time (i.e., before and after a major shock or event).
How the group simulates experience?
his group simulated the experience of a reader who is not aware of the report's guidelines regarding interpretation of uncertainty
How the subjects were shown in translation group?
subjects in the translation group were shown the guidelines given by the ipcc, and could revisit this table at any time by clicking a button
How Subjects in the verbal-numerical conditions saw a range?
subjects in the verbal-numerical conditions saw a range of numerical values next to each verbal term.2to test readers' sensitivity to the widths of the intervals, we ran two groups: the wide group was shown the numerical ranges recommended by the ipcc translation in every sentence with a probabilistic term
subjects were assigned to one of four conditions. subjects in the control group were not given any instructions on the interpretation of the phrases. this group simulated the experience of a reader who is not aware of the report's guidelines regarding interpretation of uncertainty. subjects in the translation group were shown the guidelines given by the ipcc, and could revisit this table at any time by clicking a button (see fig. 1). this group simulated the experience of a conscientious reader who has studied the report's guidelines and turns back to the translation table whenever he or she needs a reminder. subjects in the verbal-numerical conditions saw a range of numerical values next to each verbal term.2to test readers' sensitivity to the widths of the intervals, we ran two groups: the wide group was shown the numerical ranges recommended by the ipcc translation in every sentence with a probabilistic term. the narrow group was shown subsets of the original ranges conveying a higher level of precision (the ranges for likely more likely than not and unlikely had a length of 10%, and those of very unlikely and very likely were set at 5%).
What is carbon dioxide emissions?
approximately 90% of the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions have been emitted by 25 emitter nations (baumert et al., 2005). causal responsibility has featured heavily in both the ethics and policy discussions and stems from two streams of thought
Define Emission Confirmation?
both carbon taxes and capand-trade systems under emission stabilization targets are mechanisms for causal responsibility - and the general concept is ubiquitous in the policy and ethics literature
How do industrialized nations create the environment for climate change?
this understanding of compensatory justice stems from nozick's idea that 'the holdings of a person are just if he is entitled to them by the principles of justice in acquisition and transfer' (nozick, 1974, p.153), and if acquisition was not just, compensation is required (nozick, 1974, p.178). it has been argued that if we accept locke's idea that claiming resources can only be considered just acquisition as long as this does not make the situation of others worse,3 then industrialized countries have been using the atmosphere for the disposal of
approximately 90% of the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions have been emitted by 25 emitter nations (baumert et al., 2005). causal responsibility has featured heavily in both the ethics and policy discussions and stems from two streams of thought. first, making polluters pay for the impacts of their actions internalizes what would otherwise be an externality and creates a disincentive for future emissions (singer, 2002). second, the mismatch between beneficiaries of fossil energy and victims of climate impacts gives the beneficiaries special obligations. it cannot be justifiable to make those who have benefited and those who have not benefited, but who may be victims of climate change, bear equal obligations (shue, 1999). both carbon taxes and capand-trade systems under emission stabilization targets are mechanisms for causal responsibility - and the general concept is ubiquitous in the policy and ethics literature. it has been argued that causal responsibility should include compensation for climate impacts and unequal past emissions. this understanding of compensatory justice stems from nozick's idea that 'the holdings of a person are just if he is entitled to them by the principles of justice in acquisition and transfer' (nozick, 1974, p.153), and if acquisition was not just, compensation is required (nozick, 1974, p.178). it has been argued that if we accept locke's idea that claiming resources can only be considered just acquisition as long as this does not make the situation of others worse,3 then industrialized countries have been using the atmosphere for the disposal of
Which are the things the report does not attempt to provide estimates?
this report does not attempt to provide estimates of the numbers of people that may move or be forced to move in response to environmental factors including climate change. the report does not attempt to indicate specific geographical destinations for migrants in the future. the report does not attempt to draw causal relationships between climate change and migration or displacement
What is the useful of the report?
the authors hope that this report will be useful in discussions of where migration and displacement pressures are currently and where they may emerge in the future, related to phenomena such as glacial melting, drying trends, extreme events like flooding, and sea level rise
What is the intend of the report ?
the report is intended to present plausible future developments that provide decision makers a basis for focusing their discussions on the role of human mobility in adaptation
this report does not attempt to provide estimates of the numbers of people that may move or be forced to move in response to environmental factors including climate change. the report does not attempt to indicate specific geographical destinations for migrants in the future. the report does not attempt to draw causal relationships between climate change and migration or displacement, but rather relies on current scientific understanding of environmental processes and how these processes can affect human mobility. the authors hope that this report will be useful in discussions of where migration and displacement pressures are currently and where they may emerge in the future, related to phenomena such as glacial melting, drying trends, extreme events like flooding, and sea level rise. the report is intended to present plausible future developments that provide decision makers a basis for focusing their discussions on the role of human mobility in adaptation.
What did the research conducted in nine vulnerable countries indicate?
the empirical research, conducted in nine vulnerable countries, indicated that the vast majority of households across the study sites undertake autonomous adaptation to climatic stressors
Were efforts to cope with impacts of extreme events and to adapt to climatic changes enough to avoid loss and damage to households?
yet efforts to cope with impacts of extreme events and to adapt to climatic changes are often not enough to avoid loss and damage to household economies, livelihoods, health, and cultural assets
What did the majority of the respondents say?
eightyone per cent of the survey respondents reported sharp increases in soil salinity levels, compared to just 2% 20 years ago
the empirical research, conducted in nine vulnerable countries, indicated that the vast majority of households across the study sites undertake autonomous adaptation to climatic stressors. yet efforts to cope with impacts of extreme events and to adapt to climatic changes are often not enough to avoid loss and damage to household economies, livelihoods, health, and cultural assets. the findings from rabbani et al. (2013) in sathkira, bangladesh exemplify a case where seemingly successful measures to adapt to slow-onset processes are insufficient to avoid loss and damage when the situation is aggravated by an extreme weather event. sathkira is a coastal district facing sea-level rise and frequent cyclones. both result in saltwater intrusion, which has a severe impact on rice cultivation, the mainstay of the local economy and the principal source of food for the majority of the population. eightyone per cent of the survey respondents reported sharp increases in soil salinity levels, compared to just 2% 20 years ago. to adapt, many farmers have planted new, saline tolerant-rice varieties. this strategy worked reasonably well until 2009, when cyclone aila hit the area and caused a drastic increase of soil salinity. almost all farmers in the area lost their complete harvest that year. in the two subsequent years, salinity levels remained high and rice yields were miniscule. between 2009 and 2011, the total loss of rice harvest was us$1.9 million for the four villages surveyed (rabbani et al., 2013). the gambia case study (yaffa, 2013) looked at the drought-prone area of the north bank region. meteorological data since 1886 show a significant decrease in average annual rainfall. in 2011, the region experienced a severe drought once again, resulting in very low crop yields for some and total crop failure for others. ninety-seven per cent of the survey respondents experienced adverse effects of the drought on their household economy. most households tried to survive by finding alternative sources of money to buy food. food prices rose and there was tough competition for scarce jobs. other coping strategies, such as reliance on food relief and selling properties, were only partly
What is the main stream position on exosystems?
this contrasts with the main stream position wherein ecosystems are regarded as having an existence of their own 
What have colleagues said abour systemic and adaptive governance?
with colleagues on systemic and adaptive governance of natural resource situations we have made a choice to understand sustainable and regenerated water catchments as the emergent property of social processes and not the intrinsic property of an eco system
How do we perceive â€œecosystemsâ€?
we have made a choice to perceive 'ecosys tems' as bounded by the conceptualisations and judgments of humans as are agreements to what constitutes an improvement
as i outlined earlier (section 8.6), in my recent research with colleagues on systemic and adaptive governance of natural resource situations we have made a choice to understand sustainable and regenerated water catchments as the emergent property of social processes and not the intrinsic property of an eco system 20 that is, desirable water catchment properties arise out of interac tion among multiple, inter-dependent, stakeholders in the water catchment as these stakeholders engage in issue formulation and monitoring, negotiation, conflict resolution, learning, agreement, creating and maintaining public goods, concertation of action. when it occurs in a complex natural resource arena we describe this overall set of interactions as social learning i will say more about this in chapter 10 we have made a choice to perceive 'ecosys tems' as bounded by the conceptualisations and judgments of humans as are agreements to what constitutes an improvement. this contrasts with the main stream position wherein ecosystems are regarded as having an existence of their own .20
The study uses the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM to simulate what?
changes in vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling under future climate conditions
what is represented as a mixture of generalised plant functional types (PFTs) that compete for water, light, and space?
the vegetation of each simulated area ('grid cell
PFTs are differentiated by what?
their bioclimatic, physiological (c3 or c4 photosynthesis), physiognomic (woody or herbaceous), phenological (deciduous or evergreen), and flammability characteristics
this study uses the lund-potsdam-jena (lpj) dgvm to simulate changes in vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling under future climate conditions. the model version designated lpjv1.2 was used, as originally described by sitch et al (2003), with improved representations of ecosystem hydrology as documented by gerten et al (2004). lpjv1.2 (hereinafter 'lpj') is a process-based biogeography-biogeochemistry model that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of terrestrial vegetation together with land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges. a coupled photosynthesishydrological scheme computes gross primary productivity, plant respiration, and evapotranspiration on a daily time step based on the current climate, atmospheric co2 concentration, vegetation structure and phenological state, and soil water content. carbon accrued by plants in the course of 1 year - i.e. the npp - is allocated to the living tissue compartments leaves, sapwood, and fine roots according to a set of allometric and functional rules. leaf and root turnover redistribute carbon to litter and soil organic matter carbon pools. decomposition is sensitive to soil temperature and moisture, and results in the return of soil carbon to the atmosphere as heterotrophic respiration rh). the vegetation of each simulated area ('grid cell') is represented as a mixture of generalised plant functional types (pfts) that compete for water, light, and space. pfts are differentiated by their bioclimatic, physiological (c3 or c4 photosynthesis), physiognomic (woody or herbaceous), phenological (deciduous or evergreen), and flammability characteristics (table 1). disturbance by wildfire is simulated prognostically based on climate and vegetation structure (thonicke et al ., 2001). vegetation structure and composition in terms of pfts adjust
How much of all crops grown are fed to animals?
a quarter of all crops grown is fed to animals
Meat and dairy products contain how much percent of the feed and pasture biomass fed to animals?
meat and dairy products contain only 2.6 per cent of the feed and pasture biomass fed to animals
What indirectly places rich meat and dairy consumers in competition for calories with poor crop consumers?
the use of crops and arable land for livestock production
animal feed constitutes a major and growing share of crop consumption, contributing to higher international food prices with detrimental impacts on the poorest people, who tend to eat diets low in animal products and high in cereals.49 a quarter of all crops grown is fed to animals, representing half of all protein and over one-third of all calories produced.50 the use of crops and arable land for livestock production indirectly places rich meat and dairy consumers in competition for calories with poor crop consumers. it also represents a staggeringly inefficient use of resources: meat and dairy products contain only 2.6 per cent of the feed and pasture biomass fed to animals; the remaining 97.4 per cent is lost.51
How many CCMs show bias in their climatology?
biases in the global temperature climatology are generally small, although fi ve out of 18 ccms shows biases in their climatology that likely indicate problems with their radiative transfer codes
What two calculations should be merged for consistency?
photolysis and solar heating calculations should be merged for consistency
What effects should be accounted for above 70 km to correctly simulate heating and cooling rates in this region?
non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects should be accounted for above 70 km to correctly simulate heating and cooling rates in this region
the work in this chapter has shown that ccm global mean temperatures and their change can give an indication of errors in radiative transfer codes and/or atmospheric composition. biases in the global temperature climatology are generally small, although fi ve out of 18 ccms shows biases in their climatology that likely indicate problems with their radiative transfer codes. temperature trends also generally agree well with observations, although one model shows signi fi cant discrepancies that appear to be due to radiation errors. heating rates and estimated temperature changes from co<s314>2, ozone and water vapour changes are generally well modelled. other gases (n<s314>2o, ch<s314>4, cfcs) have only played a minor role in stratospheric temperature change but their heating rates are estimated with large fractional errors in many models. models that do not account for variations in the spectrum of solar irradiance but only consider changes in total (spectrally-integrated) solar irradiance (tsi) cannot properly simulate solar-induced variations in stratospheric temperature. the combined ll ghg global-annual-mean instantaneous net radiative forcing at the tropopause is within 30% of lbl models for all ccm radiation codes tested. problems remain simulating radiative forcing for stratospheric water vapour and ozone changes with a range of errors between 3% and 200% compared to lbl models. performing a comparison of radiation schemes has been challenging. this work would have bene fi tted from more ccm radiation schemes being run independently of their host models. we suggest that in future radiation schemes should regularly be involved in comparison exercises based on detailed sets of reference calculations from lbl models. ideally, solar and longwave schemes should be evaluated for a range of realistic circumstances. future chapter 3: radiation 106 radiation scheme comparisons should also ideally evaluate the radiative effects of aerosol and cloud as well as trace gases. they should also evaluate the effect of approximations made in ccms such as the frequency of radiative transfer calculations and the effects of plane-parallel/ sphericity approximations. photolysis and solar heating calculations should be merged for consistency. non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects should be accounted for above 70 km to correctly simulate heating and cooling rates in this region. ccms should include spectral variations in solar irradiance when modelling solar variability in order to induce the correct stratospheric temperature change. further work in needed to assess the level of spectral detail required.
What is an environmental planning?
type of niche where radical change stems from conflict
How are conflicts about the siting of new developments such as power plants viewed?
viewed "essentially as a problem of policy implementation
What are the situations where policies are translated into their material form?
these planning disputes thus act as a forum for national debate, knowledge transfer and learning
environmental planning or siting disputes can be viewed as a type of niche where radical change stems from conflict. frequently, conflicts about the siting of new developments such as power plants are viewed "essentially as a problem of policy implementation; universal goods have somehow to be reconciled with the particularities of individual locations" (owens 2004: 105). however, as owens (2004) goes on to argue, what is often voiced in such local disputes are "divergent conceptions of what that public good should entail" (2004: 110). these planning disputes thus act as a forum for national debate, knowledge transfer and learning (owens, 2004; owens and cowell, 2002). they are situations where policies are translated into their material form, and are hence critical niches that can catalyse wider change and learning, primarily through discourse, because: 'at root [siting] conflicts concern the legitimacy of dominant paradigms, and provide crucial arenas for challenging their monopoly.' (owens, 2004: 111).
What was transformed into monthly cumulative departure series from the period of record using the monthly mean?
all hydrologic time series
Where were the water levels (1938-2006) were obtained from?
usgs national water information system
What do the time series evaluated in this paper include?
groundwater levels from wells, precipitation data from meteorological stations, and a groundwater pumping record from an irrigation well
frequency analysis of hydrologic time series allows for inference and better understanding of subsurface hydrologic responses to climate variability near the vadose zone monitoring network. the hydrologic time-series data processing and analysis generally follow methods described by hanson et al. (2004). the time series evaluated in this paper include groundwater levels from wells, precipitation data from meteorological stations, and a groundwater pumping record from an irrigation well (table 1) that were compiled from a larger network of hydrologic time series in the high plains (gurdak and hanson, 2005). these data were selected on the basis of the location of paired groundwater level wells and precipitation stations to individual sites of the vadose zone network within each subregion of the high plains aquifer (fig. 1), and the length and completeness of record. the water levels (1938-2006) were obtained from usgs national water information system (usgs, 2006). monthly precipitation time series (1889-2005) were obtained from the noaa (2006b). the short record length (<5 yr) of the matric potential time series (fig. 2) measured by hdps prevented direct evaluation of these data using the frequency analysis techniques described below. the fi rst data-processing steps (fig. 3) were designed to remove the infl uence of zero values common to precipitation time series of semiarid and arid climates and to integrate any incomplete groundwater-level records. this step was performed by transforming all hydrologic time series into monthly cumulative departure series from the period of record using the monthly mean (fig. 3b). next, the residuals of the monthly cumulative departure series were obtained by subtracting a regression-fi tted low-order (cubic) polynomial. the overall shape of the low-order polynomial represents temporal trends (or responses)
When the summer monsoon advances to northern China?
in the middle of july, the summer monsoon advances to northern china
When the summer monsoon starts to weaken and withdraw?
in the middle of august, the summer monsoon starts to weaken and withdraw
How long does the summer monsoon in northern China last?
thus the summer monsoon in northern china lasts for a month and during this period the region receives most of its annual rainfall
in the middle of july, the summer monsoon advances to northern china. in the middle of august, the summer monsoon starts to weaken and withdraw. thus the summer monsoon in northern china lasts for a month and during this period the region receives most of its annual rainfall. a weak summer monsoon might not reach northern china or might have a shorter duration than normal, which leads to droughts (ding, 1994). the danangou watershed (36*53'n; 109*19'e) is located on the middle part of the loess plateau in ansai county in northern shaanxi province (figure 1). ansai town, the seat of the county, is situated 7 km south of danangou. two villages, danangou and leipingta, can be found in the watershed, which covers an area of 3.5 km2. the total population is around 215 people, distributed among 48 households. the main valley of the watershed, with an altitude ranging between 1000 and 1350 m.a.s.l., consists of four valleys where several smaller valleys end. serious erosion in this area is evident though the ground surface has been incised strongly, developing rills and gullies. even so, according to the farmers, the living
'Developments in one country or industry can disrupt the balance of forces elsewhere.' Justify the statement with an example from the paragraph?
developments in one country or industry can disrupt the balance of forces elsewhere. for example, the landmark speech by british petroleum's group chief executive, john browne on 19 may 1997 represented a major fissure in the oil industry's position, which bore implications for other industries in europe and in the usa
What was the impact of the landmark speech by British Petroleum's Group Chief Executive, John Browne on 19 May 1997?
 managers from other oil and automobile companies commented on how browne's speech triggered an internal reevaluation of strategy and increased external pressure to respond. the european automobile industry found itself in a particularly weak position, in which politicians looked to the industry for substantial, early emission reductions. germany, with a well organized green political party had unilaterally committed to significant ghg reductions during the negotiations in berlin
According to British Petroleum's Group Chief Executive, John Browne, when is the to consider the policy dimensions of climate change?
browne stated 'the time to consider the policy dimensions of climate change is not when the link between greenhouse gases and climate change is conclusively proven, but when the possibility cannot be discounted and is taken seriously by the society of which we are part
economirt, 1997). the overlapping and nesting of organizational fields implies that developments in one country or industry can disrupt the balance of forces elsewhere. for example, the landmark speech by british petroleum's group chief executive, john browne on 19 may 1997 represented a major fissure in the oil industry's position, which bore implications for other industries in europe and in the usa. while acknowledging that considerable scientific uncertainties still existed, browne stated 'the time to consider the policy dimensions of climate change is not when the link between greenhouse gases and climate change is conclusively proven, but when the possibility cannot be discounted and is taken seriously by the society of which we are part.' this invocation of the precautionary principle, which held more discursive currency in europe, directly challenged the 'sound science' approach advocated by us industry. managers from other oil and automobile companies commented on how browne's speech triggered an internal reevaluation of strategy and increased external pressure to respond. the european automobile industry found itself in a particularly weak position, in which politicians looked to the industry for substantial, early emission reductions. germany, with a well organized green political party had unilaterally committed to significant ghg reductions during the negotiations in berlin
What does Landscape 2013 reveal?
reveals that dfis, which include multilateral, bilateral, and national finance institution,25 play a significant role intermediating one of the largest streams of public finance
Who does their interventions target?
both public and private actors
How does it compare to last years study?
compared to last year's study, landscape 2013 captures climate finance flows from a larger number of bilateral dfis from developed countries (see section 1.2 and annex a
landscape 2013 reveals that dfis, which include multilateral, bilateral, and national finance institution,25 play a significant role intermediating one of the largest streams of public finance. their interventions target both public and private actors. compared to last year's study, landscape 2013 captures climate finance flows from a larger number of bilateral dfis from developed countries (see section 1.2 and annex a). in 2012, dfis committed around one third of total global climate finance flows, reaching usd 121 billion.26 the majority of their commitments was in the form of low-cost loans (56%), and focused on european countries (excluding eastern europe27) (37%), east asia and pacific (26%), and the latin america and the caribbean
What are people in developing countries slow to adapt to>
case for developing countries, where there is a well-documented adaptation deficit 
wht is indicative of lowering a countries vulnerabilities to climate change?
evidence that higher measures of development indicators like per capita income, literacy and institutional capacity are associated with lower vulnerability to climate events
What type of adaptation do some of the authors focus on?
focus on incremental adaptation over and above a vaguely defined baseline that includes climate-relevant development programmes
another important delineation is between adaptation and socio-economic development. socioeconomic trends over the coming decades - population growth, economic expansion, the deployment of new technologies - will affect our vulnerability to climate events and indeed may be shaped by climate conditions. human activity has always been influenced by the climate conditions people find themselves in. it is therefore difficult to delineate where socio-economic development ends and adaptation to anthropogenic climate change begins. this is particularly the case for developing countries, where there is a well-documented adaptation deficit - that is, insufficient adaptation to the current climate. poor people and poor countries are less well prepared to deal with current climate variability than rich people and rich countries. there is evidence that higher measures of development indicators like per capita income, literacy and institutional capacity are associated with lower vulnerability to climate events (noy, 2009; bowen et al., 2009). this has led authors like schelling (1992) to conclude that good development is one of the best forms of adaptation. more subtly, mcgray et al. (2007) identify a continuum of measures that address, to varying degrees, both development and adaptation needs. they range from measures that reduce vulnerability to stress more broadly (whether climate-related or not) to the creation of 'systems for problem solving', the management of current climate risks, and policies specifically addressing climate change. most cost estimates deliberately and understandably ignore the overlap between adaptation and development and focus on incremental adaptation over and above a vaguely defined baseline that includes climate-relevant development programmes. with these caveats in mind we turn to a review of existing adaptation cost estimates.
What is The Fermi LAT Collaboration Gamma-ray binaries?
the fermi lat collaboration gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems containing a neutron star or black hole, with gamma-ray emission produced by an interaction between the components
What LAT means?
large area telescop
What the variable x-ray counterpart shows?
identified a variable x-ray counterpart, which shows a sharp maximum coinciding with maximum gamma-ray emission, as well as an o6v((f)) star optical counterpart and a radio counterpart that is also apparently modulated on the orbital period
the fermi lat collaboration gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems containing a neutron star or black hole, with gamma-ray emission produced by an interaction between the components. these systems are rare, even though binary evolution models predict dozens in our galaxy. a search for gamma-ray binaries with the fermi large area telescope (lat) shows that 1fgl j1018.6 - 5856 exhibits intensity and spectral modulation with a 16.6-day period. we identified a variable x-ray counterpart, which shows a sharp maximum coinciding with maximum gamma-ray emission, as well as an o6v((f)) star optical counterpart and a radio counterpart that is also apparently modulated on the orbital period. 1fgl j1018.6 - 5856 is thus a gamma-ray binary, and its detection suggests the presence of other fainter binaries in the galaxy.
What is the spontaneous distribution of climate compared to the distribution of future and predicted climates?
spontaneum distribution undercurrent climatecomparedwithdistributions underpastandpredictedfuture climates, based on ecological niche modelling
The high allelic wealth corresponds to a putative refuge region, what was collected from that region?
high allelic richness corresponds with a putative refugial region from which many accessions of wild barley have been collected
According to the article, what is provided in the adapted figure by Russell et al. (2014)?
the figure is adapted from russell et al. (2014), where descriptions of the ecological niche modelling and genotyping methods are given
fig. 2 potentialwild barley( hordeumvulgare ssp. spontaneum distribution undercurrent climatecomparedwithdistributions underpastandpredictedfuture climates, based on ecological niche modelling. (a) the current climate compared with the last glacial maximum (lgm); areas lost and gained under current climate are indicated. horizontal hatching indicates the region of highest allelic richness in a range-wide survey of genetic diversity based on the wild barley diversity collection and nuclear simple sequence repeat markers. high allelic richness corresponds with a putative refugial region from which many accessions of wild barley have been collected. (b) the current climate compared with the 2080s (a2 mediumto high-emission trajectory for global warming; data from ccafs, 2014b); areas lost and gained under future climate are indicated. comparing the lgm with the current climate, range expansion in wild barley appears to have been mostly longitudinal, with potential implications for the type of adaptive traits accumulated. the figure is adapted from russell et al. (2014), where descriptions of the ecological niche modelling and genotyping methods are given.
What happens if the temperature on the Earth's surface changes?
if the temperature at the earth's surface changes, then heat will be gained or lost by the ground; these changes in the energy balance at the surface will propagate and be recorded underground as perturbations to the equilibrium thermal regime
At what temperatures do heat perturbations penetrate?
the depths to which the temperature or heat perturbations penetrate depends on the thermal properties of the subsurface rocks. typically, perturbations penetrate about 20 m in a year, 150 m in 100 years and about 500 m in a millennium lettau 1951
Why is the spatial distribution of the sites uneven?
the spatial distribution of the sites is uneven because, in most cases, data were acquired in mining exploration boreholes
if the temperature at the earth's surface changes, then heat will be gained or lost by the ground; these changes in the energy balance at the surface will propagate and be recorded underground as perturbations to the equilibrium thermal regime. the depths to which the temperature or heat perturbations penetrate depends on the thermal properties of the subsurface rocks. typically, perturbations penetrate about 20 m in a year, 150 m in 100 years and about 500 m in a millennium lettau 1951], such that recent energy balance changes at the surface remain recorded in the shallow underground. analysis of these underground anomalies provides the base of the borehole method of climatic reconstruction. the ground temperature and heat flux inversion procedures used here has been described in detail elsewhere beltrami and mareschal 1992; beltrami 2001a, 2001b]. here i applied the inversions to the global data set huang et al. 2000]. this data set consists of several hundred temperature logs from across the world of which 826 were available for analysis when this work was carried out. figure 1 shows the site distribution. the spatial distribution of the sites is uneven because, in most cases, data were acquired in mining exploration boreholes. each temperature log was inverted individually for the quasi-steady state geothermal heat flux and for the shfh. in the procedure used to determine the gsth, in addition, the long-term surface temperature and the quasi-steady state equilibrium
Towards what does socio-technical regime theory directs our attention?
socio-technical regime theory also directs our attention towards alternative sites or innovation niches where significant innovation and learning might be taking place as new discourses and ideas about climate change are implemented
When is the idea of an innovation niche particularly relevant?
the idea of an innovation niche is particularly relevant to situations of sectoral convergence because it focuses attention on potential new sites of innovation arising out of the convergence, involving actors, interests and technologies not central to the existing regime
From where is policy chang emerging?
policy change is no longer emerging exclusively from the collision of storylines at the level policy discourse through a process of discourse institutionalisation within government (hajer, 1995), but is also taking place through multiple, dispersed niches
socio-technical regime theory also directs our attention towards alternative sites or innovation niches where significant innovation and learning might be taking place as new discourses and ideas about climate change are implemented. the idea of an innovation niche is particularly relevant to situations of sectoral convergence because it focuses attention on potential new sites of innovation arising out of the convergence, involving actors, interests and technologies not central to the existing regime. we have illustrated that niches can be sites of either conflict or consensus, and technological experimentation as well as policy learning. in an increasingly open, fragmented energy sector, the location of policy learning and innovation has shifted. policy change is no longer emerging exclusively from the collision of storylines at the level policy discourse through a process of discourse institutionalisation within government (hajer, 1995), but is also taking place through multiple, dispersed niches. convergence is an ongoing process, with an extended period of flux as existing interests, knowledges, practices and technologies are reframed, and new ones emerge. it has a different set of dynamics to those of discrete policy sectors experiencing abrupt conflictual change emanating from short-lived, external problems, that warrants, as we have demonstrated in this paper, an engagement between policy analysis and the study of socio-technical regimes.
What are the requirements for a successful high rate of anaerobic processes?
the mixing and flow regime in the reactor, considering that all environmental factors (temperature, ph, alkalinity, etc.) are within the optimum rang
What is the most common objective in the operation of the high rate of anaerobic processes
the most common objectives to be achieved in the operation of high-rate anaerobic processes are the control of the solids retention time
How many effect produce the hydraulic load?
the hydraulic load produces at least three different effects on the biomass of the reactor during the start-up of the system
the successful application of the high-rate anaerobic processes is subject to the compliance with a series of requirements, which are mainly related to the concentration and activity of the present biomass, and also to the mixing and flow regime in the reactor, considering that all environmental factors (temperature, ph, alkalinity, etc.) are within the optimum range. the most common objectives to be achieved in the operation of high-rate anaerobic processes are the control of the solids retention time (independently from the hydraulic detention time), the prevention against the accumulation of inert suspended solids in the reactor and the development of favourable conditions for mass transfer. these objectives are generally achieved when the reactors are well designed and constructed, and when appropriate procedures during the start-up and operation of the system are taken. (a) grease removal the same considerations made in the previous section for anaerobic filters, regarding the importance of the installation of grease removal units preceding anaerobic reactors, are valid for the uasb reactors. the operational problems resulting from the non-removal (or inadequate removal) of grease can be highly detrimental, as these materials may enable the excessive accumulation of scum inside the gas collectors, hindering the release of gases and demanding special devices for its periodical removal. 794 anaerobic reactors although the installation of a grease removal unit upstream uasb reactors is not a regular practice yet, the operational problems that have occurred in units already installed have called the designers' attention towards the inclusion of this unit in the design of new treatment plants. (b) removal of coarse solids as highlighted in the beginning of this chapter and in chapter 27, the effective removalofcoarsesolidsbeforethesewageisdirectedtotheuasbreactorsisessential. in the particular case of the uasb reactors, the operational problems resulting from the non-removal (or inadequate removal) of coarse solids may jeopardise the whole operation of the treatment system, once these materials can adversely affect the distribution of the influent wastewater at the bottom of the reactor, and generate and accumulate a sludge with poor characteristics, with low activity and difficult to remove. the concern with the excessive entry of larger dimension solids in the uasb reactors is so great that many of the new designs have considered the installation of sieves, with openings from 1 to 5 mm, to reduce at the most the operational problems resulting from the entry of solids into the reactor. (c) considerations and criteria for the start-up of the system volume of seed sludge the volume of seed sludge for the start-up of the system is usually established as a function of the initial biological loading rate applied to the treatment system. the biological loading rate (kgcod/kgvs * d) is the parameter that characterises the organic load applied to the system in relation to the amount of biomass present in the reactor (see chapter 27, equation 27.14). the biological load values to be applied during the start-up depend essentially on the type of seed sludge employed and on its acclimatisation to the wastewater to be treated. it is recommended that whenever possible, the biological load for the start-up be established by means of specific methanogenic activity tests of the sludge (see chapter 25). should it be impossible to perform these tests, biological loads in the range from 0.10 to 0.50 kgcod/kgvs * d, relating to specific methanogenic activities between 0.10 and 0.50 kgcod-ch4/kgvs * d, are used during the startup of the process. these initial loads should be gradually increased according to the efficiency of the system and the improved activity of the biomass. volumetric hydraulic load the volumetric hydraulic load is equal to the amount (volume) of sewage applied daily to the reactor per unit volume (see chapter 27, equation 27.8). the hydraulic load produces at least three different effects on the biomass of the reactor during the start-up of the system:
Is it plausible to financial resources?
it is overly simplistic to assume that more spending automatically leads to better schools, it is plausible that when all else is equal schools with more financial resources outperform those with fewer resources
what are the model control for the percentage at school level?
 at the school level, the model controls for the percentage of students who, according to federal guidelines, are eligible for a free or reduced-price lunch, a key indicator of poverty within a school population free lunch
How to measure aggregating data?
there are further measures calculated by aggregating data within cived, as has been done with classroom climate
these include the per-pupil expenditures within the school's district expenditures ). while it is overly simplistic to assume that more spending automatically leads to better schools, it is plausible that when all else is equal schools with more financial resources outperform those with fewer resources. the model further controls for two measures of relativeaffluence,the percentageofcollegegraduatesandthemedianhouseholdincome within a school's district college graduates median income ). because it may be that schools in different types of communities vary in the civic education that they provide their students, the model also controls for whether a school is in an urban environment urban ). at the school level, the model controls for the percentage of students who, according to federal guidelines, are eligible for a free or reduced-price lunch, a key indicator of poverty within a school population free lunch ). there are further measures calculated by aggregating data within cived, as has been done with classroom climate. these include the racial composition of the class african american and hispanic (campbell 2007 ), as well as the aggregate level of education students expect to receive aggregate expected education ). finally, the model accounts for the frequency of social studies instruction, with the classroom average of an item that asks students how often they have social studies/ civics social studies ).10this last control is to ensure that the extent of political discussion is not simply a function of the frequency of instruction in social studies.
What features do the most appropriate technologies have?
appropriate technologies are adapted to local economic and ecological conditions, and take into account local knowledge, skills, and culture
What role can less-developed communities play in technology transfer?
the technological challenge is not only about high-technology solutions but also about understanding biodiversity to develop appropriate policy responses, and the contribution that less developed communities can make in sharing their knowledge of sustainable low-carbon technologies and ways of life
According to the passage, what is known about the way pharmaceutical companies do research and develop technology?
experience in the pharmaceutical sector has shown that rich markets generate vigorous research and development activities, whereas poor markets are mainly ignored
the unfccc identifi es technology transfer (along with funding and insurance) as key actions for adaptation to climate change by developing countries. appropriate technologies are adapted to local economic and ecological conditions, and take into account local knowledge, skills, and culture. the technological challenge is not only about high-technology solutions but also about understanding biodiversity to develop appropriate policy responses, and the contribution that less developed communities can make in sharing their knowledge of sustainable low-carbon technologies and ways of life. technological challenge requires incentives for the development of technologies needed to address the negative public health consequences of climate change in poor countries. experience in the pharmaceutical sector has shown that rich markets generate vigorous research and development activities, whereas poor markets are mainly ignored. public funding for investment in developing technologies for poor markets
What are we beginning to realize?
we are beginning to realize we have too often been seduced by our models of building performance that can be 10 - 50%, or more, wrong in their predictions of energy consumption and resulting carbon emissions from buildings
How expensive can be home upgrading in Britain?
rajat gupta estimates that for as little as ps 200 - 250 billion every home in britain could be upgraded to reduce fossil fuel energy use and carbon emissions by over 60
What benefits do home upgrading bring?
this would result in the growth of durable low-carbon industries and increased social and economic well-being for
what has been slower in coming are new visions of a future with simpler, robust, low-key, lowcarbon buildings that work in reality as they say they will do on the tin. we are beginning to realize we have too often been seduced by our models of building performance that can be 10 - 50%, or more, wrong in their predictions of energy consumption and resulting carbon emissions from buildings. these models tend to operate in such a way that people are seen as a problem in the prediction of the proper operation and performance of buildings. yet passive buildings 5 need those individuals, and their learning and adapting behaviour, to understand how they work and sail them like ships in the wind. you would not consider sailing a boat or a plane without pilots, why should a complex building be capable of being run by machines alone? buildings are not machines for living in, they are one part of the complex three-way relationship among themselves, people and the environment (including climate), as are boats or planes. nor are people machines for living in buildings. rajat gupta estimates that for as little as ps 200 - 250 billion every home in britain could be upgraded to reduce fossil fuel energy use and carbon emissions by over 60%. 6 this would result in the growth of durable low-carbon industries and increased social and economic well-being for
What is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on the length of the canopy duration and the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems?
modelling phenology
what were the aims of the study focusing on six dominant European tree species?
i) to examine the accuracy of different leaf phenology models to simulate the onset and ending of the leafy season, with particular emphasis on the putative role of chilling to release winter bud dormancy, (ii) to predict seasonal shifts for the 21st century in response to climate warming
Leaf senescence models were based on what?
based on both autumn temperature and photoperiod
modelling phenology is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on the length of the canopy duration and the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. focusing on six dominant european tree species, the aims of this study were (i) to examine the accuracy of different leaf phenology models to simulate the onset and ending of the leafy season, with particular emphasis on the putative role of chilling to release winter bud dormancy, (ii) to predict seasonal shifts for the 21st century in response to climate warming. models testing and validation were done for each species considering two or three years of phenological observations acquired over a large altitudinal gradient (1500 m range, 57 populations). flushing models were either based solely on forcing temperatures (1-phase models) or both on chilling and forcing temperatures (2-phases models). leaf senescence models were based on both autumn temperature and photoperiod. we show that most flushing models are able to predict accurately the observed flushing dates. the 1-phase models (based on forcing temperatures) are as efficient as 2-phases models (based both on forcing and chilling temperatures) for most species suggesting that chilling temperatures are currently sufficient to fully release bud dormancy. however, our predictions for the 21st century highlight that chilling temperature could be insufficient for some species at low altitude. overall, flushing is expected to advance in the next decades but this trend substantially differed between species (from 0 to 2.4 days per decade). the prediction of leaf senescence appears more challenging, as the proposed models work properly for only two out of four deciduous species, for which senescence is expected to be delayed in the future (from 1.4 to 2.3 days per decade). these trends to earlier spring leafing and later autumn senescence are likely to affect the competitive balance between species. for instance, simulations over the 21st century predict a stronger lengthening of the canopy duration for quercus petraea than for fagus sylvatica, suggesting that shifts in the altitudinal distributions of these species might occur.
The failure to provide infrastructure in adequate water, sanitation, drainage, roads, and footpaths increases what 3 things?
the failure of infrastructure to provide adequate water, sanitation, drainage, roads and footpaths increases the health burden, workload and insecurity of residents
What issues can lead to conflicts between neighbours?
issues such as competition for space and poor infrastructure (e.g. lack of, or leaking waste water pipes) can generate conflicts between neighbours
in-depth analyses have however shown that several of these socio-cultural aspects of cities are directly linked to the physical features of the urban fabric. for example, high population density, overpopulation, lack of affordable space, and the lack of green and recreational areas can influence family structures, social cohesion and sense of community. in overcrowded conditions, issues such as competition for space and poor infrastructure (e.g. lack of, or leaking waste water pipes) can generate conflicts between neighbours. likewise, the failure of infrastructure to provide adequate water, sanitation, drainage, roads and footpaths increases the health burden, workload and insecurity of residents, especially women (ifrc, 2010; tacoli, 2012). for example, houses that lack water and sanitation force girls and women to seek toilets or washing areas away from their homes, and inadequate transportation infrastructure forces citizens to cross insecure areas. furthermore, difficult access to urban areas, together with a lack of public leisure space can isolate certain groups (such as the elderly and women with small children) and make them even more "bound" to their compact homes. finally, urbanization leads to economic and political changes. these manifest in the urban economy and governance system which, unlike rural areas, relies upon non-agricultural (vs. agricultural) incomes and a money (vs. subsistence) economy; and which is characterized by urban-specific livelihood practices; resource availability; public expectations; and public reliance on institutions and social security systems (table 5) (e.g. legates and stout, 2000; unhabitat, 2007, 2011). table 5: distinctive economic and political features of cities: the urban economy and governance system
what will require successful R&D?
successful adaptation to climate change
An important element for the future will be to find ways encourage and direct what?
the power of the private research engine to improve environmental performance
what can provide sound incentives for innovations that improve environmental performance?
science-based environmental targets implemented with market-based mechanisms
agricultural research and development strategies successful adaptation to climate change will require successful r&d. traditional public r&d is part of the research portfolio, but the engine of invention now is in private firms. more basic research remains the province of the public sector. it is critical to continue to foster linkages between basic and more applied research as there is not a bright line that separates these. an important element for the future will be to find ways encourage and direct the power of the private research engine to improve environmental performance. science-based environmental targets implemented with market-based mechanisms can provide sound incentives for innovations that improve environmental performance. designing market-based mechanisms to deal with nonpoint pollution has proved difficult; more attention is needed to assure that whatever mechanisms are chosen, they provide incentives for the private sector to develop and commercialize agricultural technologies and practices with improved environmental performance.
How do you determine the systematic errors of a network of stations?
with linear interpolation we can determine the systematic errors of a station network caused by the network's geometry. in practice, we can reduce these kinds of errors by using the co-kriging interpolation technique (taking into consideration the surface parameters and the spatial distribution of identified lczs) for the temperature pattern mapping in the future
with linear interpolation we can determine the systematic errors of a station network caused by the network's geometry. in practice, we can reduce these kinds of errors by using the co-kriging interpolation technique (taking into consideration the surface parameters and the spatial distribution of identified lczs) for the temperature pattern mapping in the future. 4. conclusions in this study we identified the representative lcz classes of szeged using 7 out of 10 parameters identified by stewart oke (2012). the classification process relied both on developed gis methods to calculate these values and on our knowledge of the city. as a result, 6 built lcz types were distinguished and mapped in the studied urban area. within the delineated lcz areas, 24 sites were se lected as the stations of a planned urban temperature measurement network. during the selection of the sites we considered (1) the site's distance from the border of the lcz zone within which it was located; (2) the ability of the selected network geometry to reproduce the spatial distribution of mean temperature surplus pattern estimated by an empirical model; (3) the site's representativeness of its
What should advance research towards developing a framework for predicting phenological resposes to climate?
synthesizing perspectives from ecology and evolutionary biology with climate science
The predictions of plant phenogy presented in the passage considers fitness costs to what factor?
mis-timing
Mention one of the abiotic forces according to the passage
environmental filtering
synthesizing perspectives from ecology and evolutionary biology with climate science should advance research towards developing a framework for predicting phenological responses to climate. the predictive framework we present here is based on evolutionary relationships between coexisting species and exploring the temporal niche as a reflection of latitudinal variation in the growing season, the seasonal transition length and interannual variability. our predictions of plant phenology consider fitness costs to mis-timing, and specifically we suggest that the relative importance of abiotic forces, such as environmental filtering, and biotic forces, especially niche-based processes (e.g. competition), will variably shape species and community phenologies across growing seasons and latitudes (fig. 2).
By what methodology you could find the relationship between climate, society and future?
putting society back into the future climate reductionism - a form of neo-environmental determinism offers a methodology for providing simple answers to complex questions about the relationship between climate, society and the future
What does the climate reductionism methodology asserts?
in its crudest form it asserts that if social change is unpredictable and climate change predictable then the future can be made known by elevating climate as the primary driver of change. but such reductionism downgrades human agency and constrains the human imagination
What did Jared Diamond claimed about this climate reductionism?
jared diamond claims that "history followed different courses for different peoples because of peoples' environments"106, while looking forward james lovelock fears that "despite all our efforts to retreat sustainably, we may be unable to prevent a global decline into a chaotic world ruled by brutal war lords on a devastated earth"107
putting society back into the future climate reductionism - a form of neo-environmental determinism offers a methodology for providing simple answers to complex questions about the relationship between climate, society and the future. in its crudest form it asserts that if social change is unpredictable and climate change predictable then the future can be made known by elevating climate as the primary driver of change. but such reductionism downgrades human agency and constrains the human imagination. so, looking back, jared diamond claims that "history followed different courses for different peoples because of peoples' environments"106, while looking forward james lovelock fears that "despite all our efforts to retreat sustainably, we may be unable to prevent a global decline into a chaotic world ruled by brutal war lords on a devastated earth"107
Why are health concerns crucial for the climate change debate?
apart from a dedicated few, health professionals have come late to the climate change debate, but health concerns are crucial because they attract political attention
What conference will address the shared vision of governments about new global warming and emissions targets for 2020 and 2050?
the copenhagen un framework convention on climate change (unfccc) conference in december, 2009 (cop 15) will address the shared vision of governments about new global warming and emissions targets for 2020 and 2050
What has stimulated governments of industrialized countries to talk about the so-called green new deal?
the global fi nancial crisis has stimulated governments of industrialised countries to talk about the so-called green new deal, which brings about re-industrialisation based on low-carbon energy
we call for a public health movement that frames the threat of climate change for humankind as a health issue. apart from a dedicated few, health professionals have come late to the climate change debate, but health concerns are crucial because they attract political attention. this report raises many challenging and urgent issues for politicians, civil servants, academics, health professionals, ngos, pressure groups, and local communities. the global fi nancial crisis has stimulated governments of industrialised countries to talk about the so-called green new deal, which brings about re-industrialisation based on low-carbon energy. ideas such as carbon capture in power stations, carbon taxes with 100% dividends for low-carbon users, and fourth generational nuclear power are on the highest political agendas. the copenhagen un framework convention on climate change (unfccc) conference in december, 2009 (cop 15) will address the shared vision of governments about new global warming and emissions targets for 2020 and 2050. it will also address reform of the clean development mechanism, reducing emissions from deforestation, technology transfer, and adaptation.
Climate models are useful for what purposes?
useful are climate models for long-term water management and adaptation planning
For what the climate model outputs are used?
any single review of climate model outputs will be sufficiently broad to cover all scales of hydrological interest
Discharge records are influenced by what factors?
discharge records may be influenced by non-climatic factors including changes in land cover and management, urbanization, river regulation, water ion and effluent returns, or flood-flows by-passing gauging structures
how useful are climate models for long-term water management and adaptation planning? or put another way: as hydrologists, what features would we like to see represented well in regional climate simulations? these questions are exercising both scientific and policy-making communities as the prospect of unavoidable climate change grows with each failed attempt to set international targets for greenhouse gas emissions. they also expose a more profound conceptual divide between those advocating a scenario-led approach to adaptation, and those who have concluded that scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal (wilby dessai, 2010). this note addresses both applications of climate models: first, by offering criteria that may help evaluate climate model skill from a water management perspective; second, by closing with remarks about the utility of scenario-led approaches for adaptation in practice. hydrological processes operate across at least nine orders of magnitude in both space and time (bloschl sivapalan, 1995). attendant management scales are equally diverse: spanning minutes for realtime flood protection through to multiple decades for water provision. therefore, it is unlikely that any single review of climate model outputs will be sufficiently broad to cover all scales of hydrological interest. we should also keep in mind that the original intent of coupled ocean/atmosphere general circulation models (oa/gcms) was to assess the global consequences of different emission pathways and, only relatively recently, how we might adapt at regional and local scales (schiermeier, 2007). downscaling techniques are one manifestation of wider efforts to bridge these discordant scales under the general mantra of climate risk information at the scale required for decision making (see for example, fowler et al. 2007). with the above points in mind, five principles are recommended for those selecting climate models for hydrological applications: 1. quantify the uncertainty in the observed data used for model evaluation in any comparison study there should always be healthy scepticism about the quality and homogeneity of the observed data used to gauge model performance. it is well known that incremental or step changes in meteorological records can arise from changes in site, instrumentation, observing or recording practices, site characteristics, or sampling regime (kundzewicz robson, 2004). observing networks may be spatially biased towards lower-elevation, urban or coastal locations. discharge records may be influenced by non-climatic factors including changes in land cover and management, urbanization, river regulation, water ion and effluent returns, or flood-flows by-passing gauging structures. trends found in shorter series may cease to be significant when the influence of outliers (at the start or the end of the record), or multi-decadal variability have been taken into account. ideally, confidence intervals should be provided for all observations to reflect the timeand space-varying density, completeness and homogeneity of data used for benchmarking models. 2. compare like with like climate model output is most readily available at monthly time scales and at spatial resolutions of 25 to 300 km for selected
What is CSIRO2?
no atmospheric moisture information was available for csiro2. therefore tmin was again taken as a proxy for dew-point temperature td) in equation 5, and vapour pressure was obtained through substituting e for es and td for t in equations 3 and 4
How to improve the signal-to-noise ratio?
the ensemble mean was used if more than one simulation was available, to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and thus improve the accuracy of the pattern scaling that will be used at a later stage (mitchell, 2003
What is slight loss of physical consistency?
although the averaging will result in a slight loss of physical consistency between climate variables, this loss is much smaller than the loss suffered from combining high-resolution observations with low-resolution gcm information
no atmospheric moisture information was available for csiro2. therefore tmin was again taken as a proxy for dew-point temperature td) in equation 5, and vapour pressure was obtained through substituting e for es and td for t in equations 3 and 4. 2. patterns of anomalies (m on the native model grids were constructed from the available simulations. the ensemble mean was used if more than one simulation was available, to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and thus improve the accuracy of the pattern scaling that will be used at a later stage (mitchell, 2003). although the averaging will result in a slight loss of physical consistency between climate variables, this loss is much smaller than the loss suffered from combining high-resolution observations with low-resolution gcm information. for each variable (v) -- except cloud cover -- absolute anomalies were calculated:
What value does the variable "k" represent?
we estimated the population growth rate, k
Were the results of the study similar or dissimilar when two sites that were survey 9 years before WNS detection were excluded?
our results were qualitatively similar if we excluded the two sites that were surveyed 9 years before wns detection
What was adjusted for when calculating the average yearly population growth following the arrival of WNS?
for sites where the first post-wns count was more than 1 year after wns detection we calculated the average yearly population growth rate, k following the arrival of wns by adjusting for the number of years between wns detection at a hibernacula
we estimated the population growth rate, k for each population of each species with counts both before and after wns detection. we used the single most recent pre-wns census as a proxy for colony size prior to onset of wns infection, which was an average of 3.7 (range: 1 - 9) years before wns detection. our results were qualitatively similar if we excluded the two sites that were surveyed 9 years before wns detection. for sites where the first post-wns count was more than 1 year after wns detection we calculated the average yearly population growth rate, k following the arrival of wns by adjusting for the number of years between wns detection at a hibernacula, and the post-wns census via:
What is climate change?
as with other arthropods (5), climate change will lead to a reduction or an increase in the areas available to honey bees. bees will abandon areas that evolve towards drought and migrate towards the fringes of such areas. in contrast, honey bees will colonise cold areas that were initially hostile to them. a well-studied example is that of the africanised honey bee
What are the geographical distribution?
in contrast, honey bees will colonise cold areas that were initially hostile to them. a well-studied example is that of the africanised honey bee. the africanised honey bee's geographical distribution has now extended as far as argentina and the usa, where it has come to a halt (9, 32
What are feral colonies?
moreover, the africanised honey bee is less susceptible to the varroa mite than european honey bees (22). it is therefore expected to form feral colonies and to adapt more easily than other races, which is what is happening in the usa at present
as with other arthropods (5), climate change will lead to a reduction or an increase in the areas available to honey bees. bees will abandon areas that evolve towards drought and migrate towards the fringes of such areas. in contrast, honey bees will colonise cold areas that were initially hostile to them. a well-studied example is that of the africanised honey bee. the africanised honey bee's geographical distribution has now extended as far as argentina and the usa, where it has come to a halt (9, 32). according to researchers, this is because the climatic conditions beyond that are too cold for the africanised honey bee. global warming is therefore conducive to the bee's expansion outside its current distribution range. moreover, the africanised honey bee is less susceptible to the varroa mite than european honey bees (22). it is therefore expected to form feral colonies and to adapt more easily than other races, which is what is happening in the usa at present.
In what city has the Bangladesh government made initiatives to improve air quality?
dhaka
What is the maximum age of buses allowed on the roads in Bangladesh?
20 years
the government of bangladesh has undertaken several initiatives to improve the air quality in dhaka, including the following: * the of compressed natural gas (cng) for transport. recent increases in gasoline prices have pushed this further and more vehicles are being converted to cng; * since 2002, the banning of buses more than 20 years old and trucks more than 25 years old in bangladesh; * since 1 january 2003, the banning of two-stroke engine three-wheeler vehicles in dhaka; * a reduction in the number of non-motorized vehicles along with restrictions on their movement within certain areas of the city and during specifi c periods of the day. this helps to reduce traffi c congestion and thus reduces the consumption or burning of fuels; * updating and installing new traffi c signals and the construction of bypasses and fl yovers for smoother traffi c fl ows; * the in 2002 of an environmental clearance certifi cate, mandatory for the establishment of brick fi elds; and * a movement to promote the use of compact fl uorescent lamps in bangladesh. these are used quite extensively at both domestic and commercial levels and consume around one-quarter of the electricity of incandescent bulbs. the dhaka transportation coordination board is currently preparing a strategic transport plan, which will provide a long-term strategic vision for dhaka's transport system.
What is his research aims to investigate?
this research aims to investigate a possible functional relationship between nasal cavity morphology and climate, by examining the following two hypotheses and their predictions
In what Nasal morphology  is related?
nasal morphology is related to climate irrespective of nasal cavity size
What Cold-dry groups will show?
cold-dry groups will show air-wall contact enhancing features
this research aims to investigate a possible functional relationship between nasal cavity morphology and climate, by examining the following two hypotheses and their predictions: 1. climate affects nasal morphology. a there are significant correlations between nasal cavity shape and climatic factors of temperature and vapor pressure. b trends in nasal cavity shape will follow a climatic trend from least to most physiologically demanding environments for breathing: from hot-humid to cold-dry. c nasal morphology is related to climate irrespective of nasal cavity size. 2. cold-dry climates, most demanding in terms of breathing, have resulted in nasal cavity morphology which enhances conditioning of the air. cold-dry groups will show air-wall contact enhancing features: a decrease in relative breadth and/or height to increase surface/volume ratio. b increased relative length of the cavity to increase residence time. c increased turbulence through larger breadth and especially relative height of the cavity, and through a pronounced relative diameter size step between the cross-sectional area of the anterior cavum and the turbinate chamber, and between the posterior cavum and the turbinate chamber.
Why some of the case study literature has been criticized?
while some of the case study literature has been criticized for studying only the conflict cases (gleditsch, 1998), it can also be faulted for relatively shallow case description and theoretical myopia. more recently, the large-n conflict literature has moved away from an exclusive reliance on the 'country-year' approach, towards geographical and temporal disaggregation (cederman gleditsch, 2009
What is the ambition of the studies?
the ambition is to measure conflict as well as explanatory variables for short time intervals and for subnational regions or territorial grid cells
What lesson the large-N community could learn from proponents of case studies?
one of the lessons that the large-n community could learn from proponents of case studies is the emphasis on interaction effects
some case study-oriented researchers (homer-dixon, 1994; kahl, 2006) have argued that many case studies find support for a scarcity model of conflict while large-n statistical research generally fails to do so (see e.g. theisen, 2008). however, other case studies (e.g. benjaminsen, 2008) are closer to the skeptical position. in this issue, and in the current literature generally, there is no systematic difference between case studies and statistical investigations. while some of the case study literature has been criticized for studying only the conflict cases (gleditsch, 1998), it can also be faulted for relatively shallow case description and theoretical myopia. more recently, the large-n conflict literature has moved away from an exclusive reliance on the 'country-year' approach, towards geographical and temporal disaggregation (cederman gleditsch, 2009). the ambition is to measure conflict as well as explanatory variables for short time intervals and for subnational regions or territorial grid cells. this approach seems particularly appropriate to the study of effects of variables such as climate change that do not vary along national boundaries, and it may help to bridge the gap between case studies and large-n studies. one of the lessons that the large-n community could learn from proponents of case studies is the emphasis on interaction effects. homer-dixon (1994) and kahl (2006) do not argue that environmental change generally and climate change specifically have a major impact on conflict - the effect plays out in interaction with exogenous conflict-promoting factors (buhaug, gleditsch theisen, 2008, 2010). koubi et al. (2012) and tir stinnett (2012) take a step in this direction in testing for interactions with institutions and regime type respectively. kofi annan (2006: 9-10) argued in one of his last reports as un secretary-general, that 'pollution, population growth and climate change are occurring now and hitting the poorest and most vulnerable hardest. environmental degradation has the potential to destabilize already conflict-prone regions, especially when compounded by inequitable access or politicization of access to scarce resources.' here, he is invoking an interaction effect of climate change with no less than three other variables. unfortunately, it seems unlikely that case study researchers or large-n scholars will launch a systematic investigation of such complicated interaction patterns any time soon.
How to determine quantitative relationship?
given the complexity of n2o emission control (fig. 15 ), it is almost impossible to determine a quantitative relationship between the cause (a change in any ecological driver or environmental factors) and the consequence (n2o fluxes) through simple correlation or regression analysis (li, 2007 
which obscures the relationships between cause and e ff ects for many of the biogeochemical processes,?
he extreme spatial and temporal heterogeneity of many primary drivers actually obscures the relationships between cause and e ff ects for many of the biogeochemical processes, so that correlations between a change in primary drivers and linked changes in biogeochemical cycles are inherently non-linear (li, 2007 conrad, 1996 
Explain about Numerous models?
numerous models can nowadays simulate cropping systems and the associated fluxes between the soil-plant-atmosphere compartments. by simulating plant uptake, biomass growth and residues, nitrate leaching
given the complexity of n2o emission control (fig. 15 ), it is almost impossible to determine a quantitative relationship between the cause (a change in any ecological driver or environmental factors) and the consequence (n2o fluxes) through simple correlation or regression analysis (li, 2007 ). the extreme spatial and temporal heterogeneity of many primary drivers actually obscures the relationships between cause and e ff ects for many of the biogeochemical processes, so that correlations between a change in primary drivers and linked changes in biogeochemical cycles are inherently non-linear (li, 2007 conrad, 1996 ). as regression models neglect several variables, because datasets used for developing the model did not distinguish these variables, for instance, emission factors cannot in essence lead to significant reduction of estimation uncertainty and cannot always be used to test di ff erent management or mitigation scenarios (beheydt et al., 2007 ). 5.2.2.4 process-based models process-based models make it possible to assess emissions with more accuracy, because of a better accounting for all involved processes and local conditions. numerous models can nowadays simulate cropping systems and the associated fluxes between the soil-plant-atmosphere compartments. by simulating plant uptake, biomass growth and residues, nitrate leaching
What does Barnett et al. (2010) examined?
barnett et al. (2010) examined which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality
Which seven temperature measures does authors compared
the authors compared seven temperature measures: maximum, mean and minimum temperature; maximum, mean and minimum apparent temperature; and the humidex, based on daily data for 107 u.s. cities during 1987-2000
What does they propose f?or the projection research of heat-related morality
for the projection research of heat-related morality, we therefore propose that the temperature measure can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as using mean temperature which may be commonly available from the climate models
barnett et al. (2010) examined which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality. the authors compared seven temperature measures: maximum, mean and minimum temperature; maximum, mean and minimum apparent temperature; and the humidex, based on daily data for 107 u.s. cities during 1987-2000. no one temperature measure was superior to the others. the strong correlation between different temperature measures suggests that they have a similar predictive ability. for the projection research of heat-related morality, we therefore propose that the temperature measure can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as using mean temperature which may be commonly available from the climate models.
What is a v structure?
a v structure in a directed graph is a child node that has at least two parents that are not connected to each other
V structures are known by another name, which one?
in causal reasoning, v structures, also known as unshielded colliders play a key role because they are the key indicators for the direction of causal relationships
What does figure 2c and 2d show us respectively?
figure 2c shows the undirected and fig. 2d the directed graph that would be obtained through structure learning
a v structure in a directed graph is a child node that has at least two parents that are not connected to each other. in causal reasoning, v structures, also known as unshielded colliders play a key role because they are the key indicators for the direction of causal relationships. the following application provides an example of a v structure. whether a person develops lung cancer depends among other things on age and smoking habits. in other words the variables age and smoking are causes (parents) of the effect (child) lungcancer. furthermore, let us say that for the considered population the age of a person does not significantly impact whether he/she smokes or not. thus age and smoking are considered independent of each other, and the intuitive causal graph shown on the left of fig. 2a does not show an edge between them. the graph in fig. 2a contains a v structure at lungcancer since this node has two parents that are not connected to each other. the name v structure comes from the fact that these three nodes form the shape of a ''v'' if we follow the convention of placing parents higher up on the page than children. the v structures leave a distinct footprint that can be detected in the corresponding data and thus can be used to determine directions in a directed graph representation. namely, the parent nodes are independent of each other, but they become conditionally dependent if the state of the child is known. let us illustrate this conditional dependency using the lung cancer example. we made the assumption that age is independent of smoking, that is, knowing the age of a person does not tell me anything about his/her smoking habits. however, if we know the status of the variable lungcancer, say that a person has been diagnosed with lung cancer, then the parent nodes become dependent. for example, knowing that a person with lung cancer diagnosis is of a young age raises the probability that the person is smoking because lung cancer patients often have at least one of the two major risk factors, increased age or smoking. for undirected graphs, v structures also play a special role. an undirected graph is unable to represent the independence relationships of a v structure, resulting in an additional edge between the parents. figure 2b shows the correlation graph for this example. figure 2c shows the undirected and fig. 2d the directed graph that would be obtained through structure learning. because of the v structure, learning yields only one directed independence graph in the lung cancer example (fig. 2d), and this graph perfectly matches the original graph (fig. 2a). in contrast three different directed independence graphs were obtained for the match example in fig. 1d because of the lack of a v structure in that application. because of the v structure, the undirected independence graph contains one more edge than the directed independence graph, namely between the parent nodes age and smoking. while in this particular example the correlation graph has the same number of edges as the directed
What are win-win strategies?
examples of win-win strategies are those that increase the net returns today, and also into the future, and would include appropriately designed dedicated catch shares that can reduce harvesting costs and increase revenues or gear restrictions that increase yield per recruit
what are the examples of Win-lose actions?
examples of such actions would be deliberate recruitment overfishing to temporarily maintain higher employment levels in a fishery
the inter-temporal trade-offs show that win-win actions should be implemented immediately while lose-lose actions should never be undertaken. examples of win-win strategies are those that increase the net returns today, and also into the future, and would include appropriately designed dedicated catch shares that can reduce harvesting costs and increase revenues or gear restrictions that increase yield per recruit. lose-win actions such as stock rebuilding may initially generate short-run transitional costs, but result in an overall positive net present value that may be very large examples of such actions would be harvest controls that reduce the current harvest to rebuild the overall biomass and that can promote bio-physical and socio-economic resilience. larger fish stocks may also increase the net present value of returns from fishing but are typically associated with short-run transitional costs. win-lose actions provide positive short-run gains, but possibly at the expense unacceptably high or risky harvest levels and also result in an overall negative net present value in the long run. examples of such actions would be deliberate recruitment overfishing to temporarily maintain higher employment levels in a fishery.
What area can be an afected by climate change effect ? Give an example.
most education projects would hardly be affected by climatic circumstances, but school buildings in flood-prone might well be at risk
What is described as first selection ?
the first selection includes projects dealing with infectious diseases, water supply and sanitation, transport infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, renewable energy and hydropower15, tourism, urban and rural development, environmental protection, food security, and emergency assistance
What is labeled as second selection ?
the second classification is more restricted. first of all, it excludes projects related to transport and storage. in many countries, these projects make up a relatively large share of the development portfolio, simply due to the large size of individual investments (contrary to investments in softer sectors such as environment, education and health
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 24 24 clearly, any screen for climate change risks that is based solely on sectors suffers from oversimplification. in reality, there is a wide spectrum of exposure to climate risks even within particular sectors. for instance, rain-fed agriculture projects might be much more vulnerable than projects in areas with reliable irrigation. at the same time, the irrigation systems themselves may also be at risk, further complicating the picture. similarly, most education projects would hardly be affected by climatic circumstances, but school buildings in flood-prone might well be at risk. without an in-depth examination of risks to individual projects, it is impossible to capture such differences. hence, the sectoral classification only provides a rough first sense about the share of development activities that might be affected by climate risks. to capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of development activities affected by climate change was calculated in two ways, a rather broad selection, and a more restrictive one. the first selection includes projects dealing with infectious diseases, water supply and sanitation, transport infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, renewable energy and hydropower15, tourism, urban and rural development, environmental protection, food security, and emergency assistance.16 the second classification is more restricted. first of all, it excludes projects related to transport and storage. in many countries, these projects make up a relatively large share of the development portfolio, simply due to the large size of individual investments (contrary to investments in softer sectors such as environment, education and health). at the same time, infrastructure projects are usually designed on the basis of detailed engineering studies, which should include attention at least to current climate risks to the project.17 moreover, the second selection excludes food aid and emergency assistance projects. except for disaster mitigation components (generally a very minor portion of emergency aid), these activities are generally responsive and planned at short notice. the treatment of risks is thus very different from well-planned projects intended to have long-term development benefits. together, the first and the second selection give an indication of the range of the share of climate-affected development activities.
Describe the preferred policies for managing coastal areas?
managed retreat has been identified as the preferred policy for managing some coastal areas, but this has been complicated by the relatively static biodiversity protection requirements of inter alia the eu's eu biodiversity and habitats policies ledoux et al., 2000 ). however, it is still far from clear whether these apparently constraining effects--or instances of institutional and policy interplay young, 2002 )--exerted by past policies in non climate sectors are widespread or just isolated
Ground 'policy description?
the rationale for adopting these two perspectives is to be found in the policy implementation literature, which has usefully demonstrated that what one makes of the interplay between different policies (both vertically and horizontally), is contingent upon the standpoint taken (i.e. 'top down' or 'bottom up'). after defining these two methodological standpoints, the remainder of this paper explores the scope for developing a 'climate proofing' mechanism to inform ongoing attempts to integrate climate change factors into new policy making activities in non climate sectors
Give examples of 'ground' policy?
the rest of this paper unfolds as follows. section 2 starts by discussing the theoretical matter of how policies interlink or interplay with one another, before outlining our method for investigating how it plays out in the realm
managed retreat has been identified as the preferred policy for managing some coastal areas, but this has been complicated by the relatively static biodiversity protection requirements of inter alia the eu's eu biodiversity and habitats policies ledoux et al., 2000 ). however, it is still far from clear whether these apparently constraining effects--or instances of institutional and policy interplay young, 2002 )--exerted by past policies in non climate sectors are widespread or just isolated examples. drawing on a case study of the uk, this paper therefore aims to develop a method for auditing the extent to which broader swathes of policy decided centrally are perceived to be compatible and/or clash with preferred adaptive responses at more local levels. this method involves comparing and contrasting the formal, written content of relevant climate and non climate policies on the one hand, and then comparing this picture with relevant stakeholder perceptions of how these different policies interact in the everyday processes of policy implementation 'on the ground'. the rationale for adopting these two perspectives is to be found in the policy implementation literature, which has usefully demonstrated that what one makes of the interplay between different policies (both vertically and horizontally), is contingent upon the standpoint taken (i.e. 'top down' or 'bottom up'). after defining these two methodological standpoints, the remainder of this paper explores the scope for developing a 'climate proofing' mechanism to inform ongoing attempts to integrate climate change factors into new policy making activities in non climate sectors. the rest of this paper unfolds as follows. section 2 starts by discussing the theoretical matter of how policies interlink or interplay with one another, before outlining our method for investigating how it plays out in the realm
Which individuals have higher risk of gastrointestinal illness from contact with contaminated water?
children, older adults (primarily age 65 and older), pregnant women, and immunocompromised individuals have higher risk of gastrointestinal illness and severe health outcomes from contact with contaminated water
Why do children have higher recreational exposure risk for pathogens and freshwater HABs.
because children swallow roughly twice as much water as adults while swimming, they have higher recreational exposure risk for both pathogens and freshwater habs
What are the risks for pregnant women who develop severe gastrointestinal illness?
pregnant women who develop severe gastrointestinal illness are at high risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes (pregnancy loss and preterm birth
children, older adults (primarily age 65 and older), pregnant women, and immunocompromised individuals have higher risk of gastrointestinal illness and severe health outcomes from contact with contaminated water.4, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213 pregnant women who develop severe gastrointestinal illness are at high risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes (pregnancy loss and preterm birth).214 because children swallow roughly twice as much water as adults while swimming, they have higher recreational exposure risk for both pathogens and freshwater habs.101, 120 recent cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis cases have frequently been reported in children aged one to nine years, with onset of illness peaking during the summer months.215 in addition, 40%
What is the GCOS reporting?
the gcos reporting and planning documents that result from the assessment and implementation cycle are based on broad community engagement
What is the IPCC assessment process?
this involves scientific workshops that draw on lessons learned from the ipcc assessment process; scrutiny by its cosponsored expert panels for atmosphere, ocean, and land (houghton et al. 2012); open public review and response to comments; and formal acceptance by the steering committee for gcos, to which members are appointed by the program sponsors
Explain about the process gains legitimacy through acceptance by the sponsors?
the process gains legitimacy through acceptance by the sponsors, the parties to the unfccc, and others, including the various national and international agents for implementation without whom progress could not be made
the gcos reporting and planning documents that result from the assessment and implementation cycle are based on broad community engagement. this involves scientific workshops that draw on lessons learned from the ipcc assessment process; scrutiny by its cosponsored expert panels for atmosphere, ocean, and land (houghton et al. 2012); open public review and response to comments; and formal acceptance by the steering committee for gcos, to which members are appointed by the program sponsors. the process gains legitimacy through acceptance by the sponsors, the parties to the unfccc, and others, including the various national and international agents for implementation without whom progress could not be made.
How much would be an agreement?
so a compromise would be around six to eight storeys, but its anybody's choice and anybody's guess
What will the market benefit from this in the coming decades?
each city must decide for itself what sort of place it is, what form it should have in the future and how tall it should be
What does the author expect from the future?
whatever form of building we choose to live and work in, in the future, one thing must be sure: that the occupants can survive in it when the lights go out, because, in the last decades of the fossil fuel age, energy insecurity will drive many of our lifestyle choices. it is to this that we turn next
so a compromise would be around six to eight storeys, but its anybody's choice and anybody's guess. a sensible choice may be found in the city of paris, which has a canopy built to these heights. so, interestingly, the french, with their ' beaux arts ' tradition and few notable low-energy buildings at all, may have a model for a low-risk city. what will the market benefits of that be over the coming decades? each city must decide for itself what sort of place it is, what form it should have in the future and how tall it should be. it should not be developers who drive that discourse. it would be like allowing bankers to decide, unfettered by shareholder caution, how big their bonuses should be. perhaps the days in which size matters more than other considerations are over. our building choices in the future may be dominated by the desire to ensure that what we build from now on has the smallest impacts and lasts the longest time, rather than making the biggest impression today. whatever form of building we choose to live and work in, in the future, one thing must be sure: that the occupants can survive in it when the lights go out, because, in the last decades of the fossil fuel age, energy insecurity will drive many of our lifestyle choices. it is to this that we turn next.
What are the additional effects of increased cloudiness?
substantial snow loss in the spring, increasing shortwave absorption at the surface
What are the effects of increased cloudiness in remainder of the region?
the combined effects of decreased albedo and increased downwelling longwave radiation amplify the warming relative to the global model
(croke et al. 1999). therefore, to the extent that these results for increased cloudiness depend on changes in the pacific high, they would not be consistently reproduced using other global models to force the regional simulation. nevertheless, observational studies have shown increased cloudiness over the coastal southwest united states and over land areas worldwide under twentieth-century climate change (croke et al. 1999; karl et al. 1993). such changes in low-level cloudiness would have a profound effect on the surface warming under climate change. increased cloudiness reduces the incident solar radiation at the surface, producing a cooling effect during daylight hours. the increased cloudiness also increases downwelling infrared radiation, which produces a warming effect throughout the diurnal cycle. the net result is a decrease in the diurnal range. additionally, there is substantial snow loss in the spring, increasing shortwave absorption at the surface. when averaged over all times, the net radiation at the surface shows a slight decrease in the coastal lowlands, moderating the warming relative to the global model. over the remainder of the region, the combined effects of decreased albedo and increased downwelling longwave radiation amplify the warming relative to the global model.
How many people of the global population in 2000 live in places that produce at least some crop and livestock calories?
some 5.4 billion people
14 crops or crop groups account for what percent of all calories produced?
14 crops or crop groups account for 70 per cent of all calories produced
Developing countries account for what percent of the people, but only 40 percent of the calories available?
developing countries (as defined above) account for 78 per cent of the people but only 40 per cent of the calories available
several points can be made about table 3. first, some 5.4 billion people, or just under 90 per cent of the global population in 2000, live in places that produce at least some crop and livestock calories. on the basis of this analysis, the 14 crops or crop groups account for 70 per cent of all calories produced and livestock 30 per cent (note that several important crops that provide calories for human nutrition are not included here, including sugar and oil crops). second, it is noteworthy that developing countries (as defined above) account for 78 per cent of the people but only 40 per cent of the calories available; conversely, the temperate regions account for 22 per cent of the people and 60 per cent of the calories produced. third, the
What some policymakers hope?
some policymakers hope that low-impact 'catalyst behaviors' (e.g., recycling) will lead to the adoption of higher-impact behaviors through spill-over effects
What do some evidences suggest?
some evidence suggests that such effects occur26,50but other evidence suggests that action in one behavioral domain sometimes leads to inaction in others, resulting in no net positive effect on consumption.51thus, presently, the main utility of psychological constructs appears to lie in their ability to explain low-ghg impact behaviors, although the relative lack of research on high-impact behaviors leaves the answer to this question incomplete
Why the drawing conclusions about the relative predictive power of different variables or theories would be premature?
attempts have been made to combine attitudinal and contextual theoretical perspectives (e.g., refs 52 and 39), but drawing conclusions about the relative predictive power of different variables or theories would be premature because high-impact behaviors have yet to be widely studied
some policymakers hope that low-impact 'catalyst behaviors' (e.g., recycling) will lead to the adoption of higher-impact behaviors through spill-over effects. some evidence suggests that such effects occur26,50but other evidence suggests that action in one behavioral domain sometimes leads to inaction in others, resulting in no net positive effect on consumption.51thus, presently, the main utility of psychological constructs appears to lie in their ability to explain low-ghg impact behaviors, although the relative lack of research on high-impact behaviors leaves the answer to this question incomplete. attempts have been made to combine attitudinal and contextual theoretical perspectives (e.g., refs 52 and 39), but drawing conclusions about the relative predictive power of different variables or theories would be premature because high-impact behaviors have yet to be widely studied.
What does the kh2 tests show?
dropping oil does not significantly change the natural gas parameters kh2 df(26)=5
What does dropping natural gas do?
dropping natural gas does change the oil parameters kh2=418
for the pipeable residential customers, kh2 tests show that dropping oil does not significantly change the natural gas parameters kh2 df(26)=5). however, dropping natural gas does change the oil parameters kh2=418). for the non-pipeable residential customers, dropping "other fuel" does not significantly change the oil parameters kh2 df(27)<1) but dropping oil from the choice set does change the coefficients of "other fuel" kh2=66). for commercial customers, we drop each of the choices (relative to electricity only) one at a time. dropping either oil or "other fuel" does not significantly change the parameters (( kh2 df(65)=4 and 3, respectively). however, dropping natural gas from the choice set does have a significant impact kh2=200).
What are the most common barriers to the implementation of technologies with improved efficiency?
many technologies for improved effi ciency are already available, but various policy, information, and economic barriers prevent their implementation
Name the most common advantage of implementing technologies for energetic efficiency.
energy effi ciency improvements are nearly always the easiest, cheapest, and quickest interventions in almost all sectors as well as having the least risk of negative sideeff ects
Actually such technologies for energy efficiency are a bit expensive, what can make it cost less?
energy effi ciency improvements are nearly always the easiest, cheapest, and quickest interventions in almost all sectors as well as having the least risk of negative sideeff ects. this is true even though the net energy savings will be less than a simple analysis would predict because effi ciency improvements can stimulate demand by making the associated energy service less expensive
there is no shortage of technological options and practices that would enable the world to enjoy the benefi ts of using energy while moving to an energy system with low emissions of greenhouse gases. the world's energy needs could eventually be met several times over by such energy resources, and through improving effi ciency in energy consumption and use. surveys are provided elsewhere;13-19 the key options are summarised in the panel. energy effi ciency improvements are nearly always the easiest, cheapest, and quickest interventions in almost all sectors as well as having the least risk of negative sideeff ects. this is true even though the net energy savings will be less than a simple analysis would predict because effi ciency improvements can stimulate demand by making the associated energy service less expensive. even so, to expend great amounts of resources to develop new sources of energy makes no sense if they are used poorly. additionally, many technologies for improved effi ciency are already available, but various policy, information, and economic barriers prevent their implementation.
On what is the LM-bar test based?
the lm-bar test is based on the mean of individual unit root statistics
Untill when is the test valid?
the test is valid when the errors in the region regressions are serially uncorrelated, and normally and independently distributed across regions
Explain the widest panel.
this is the widest panel, but for all the crops considered here, n is large relative to t. suppose that the variable of interest, yit, has a representation as a stochastic first-order autoregressive process for region i and time period t, 6
panel unit root tests im, pesaran, and shin propose a series of unit root test statistics in dynamic heterogenous panels based on individual dickey-fuller (dickey and fuller) regressions. the lm-bar test is based on the mean of individual unit root statistics. the test is valid when the errors in the region regressions are serially uncorrelated, and normally and independently distributed across regions. under these circumstances lm-bar is distributed as standard normal as long as the number of regions (n) is large relative to the number of time periods (t). for wheat, corn, and soybeans we have 25 annual observations with in some cases substate level observations. there are, e.g. 1400 observations for wheat, with 25 years of data across 56 regions. this is the widest panel, but for all the crops considered here, n is large relative to t. suppose that the variable of interest, yit, has a representation as a stochastic first-order autoregressive process for region i and time period t, 6
Describe the changes in FW exports?
overall, the changes in the fw export lead to a freshening of the labrador sea, but not the interior greenland sea. the fresher labrador sea is one factor that has the potential to decrease deep-water formation in that region, and the model indeed indicates that the maximum mixed layer depth in the labrador sea is reduced by over 500 m by the end of the twenty-first century compared to 1981-2005 (not shown), with the largest changes occurring during the second half of the twentyfirst century
What is the volume flow description?
this weakening of labrador sea convection over the twenty-first century might well be the reason for the simulated decrease of the volume flux through the caa after 2070, as studies have shown that the volume export through the caa is strongly influenced by changes in sea surface height in baffin bay (jahn et al. 2010; houssais and herbaut 2011
John et al. Hussein and Herpatlaprador talk about convection in the ocean?
caa is strongly influenced by changes in sea surface height in baffin bay (jahn et al. 2010; houssais and herbaut 2011). a similar response of the caa volume flux to a weakening of convection in the labrador sea is also seen in a glacial inception paleoclimate simulation with ccsm4 (jochum et al. 2012
overall, the changes in the fw export lead to a freshening of the labrador sea, but not the interior greenland sea. the fresher labrador sea is one factor that has the potential to decrease deep-water formation in that region, and the model indeed indicates that the maximum mixed layer depth in the labrador sea is reduced by over 500 m by the end of the twenty-first century compared to 1981-2005 (not shown), with the largest changes occurring during the second half of the twentyfirst century. this weakening of labrador sea convection over the twenty-first century might well be the reason for the simulated decrease of the volume flux through the caa after 2070, as studies have shown that the volume export through the caa is strongly influenced by changes in sea surface height in baffin bay (jahn et al. 2010; houssais and herbaut 2011). a similar response of the caa volume flux to a weakening of convection in the labrador sea is also seen in a glacial inception paleoclimate simulation with ccsm4 (jochum et al. 2012).
What are the models capable of?
these models are capable of describing complex behavioural linkages and thus of simulating, for example, substitutions from high-emission to low-emission techniques in the face of changing relative prices
What is the range estimates of the models?
because different assumptions are made in different studies, these models produce a range of estimates, summarised in the review as a range of +/-3
What can be found in Chapter 10?
the first surveyed the latest literature covering macroeconomic models of mitigation, a 'top-down' approach (chapter 10
the review's quantitative assessment of these issues followed two approaches. the first surveyed the latest literature covering macroeconomic models of mitigation, a 'top-down' approach (chapter 10). these models are capable of describing complex behavioural linkages and thus of simulating, for example, substitutions from high-emission to low-emission techniques in the face of changing relative prices. but with complexity comes opacity, and much turns on a series of assumptions about the evolution of behaviour, technologies and policy that can be difficult to decipher (making the metaanalyses of fischer and morgenstern, 2005, and barker et al ., 2006, very valuable in isolating the approximate contribution of such assumptions). because different assumptions are made in different studies, these models produce a range of estimates, summarised in the review as a range of +/-3% of
What are the most frequent reaction orders found in sewage treatment?
the most frequent reaction orders found in sewage treatment are zero order and first order
How does the second order reactions occur?
second order reactions may occur with some specific industrial wastewaters
Is there any another type of reaction used in wastewater treatment?
there is another type of reaction, which is widely used in the area of wastewater treatment, called saturation
the second-order reaction has a reaction rate proportional to the square of the reagent concentration. the most frequent reaction orders found in sewage treatment are zero order and first order. second order reactions may occur with some specific industrial wastewaters. the reaction order does not necessarily need to be an integer, and the laboratory determination of the decomposition rates of certain industrial constituents can lead to intermediate orders. besides these reactions with constant order, there is another type of reaction, which is widely used in the area of wastewater treatment, called saturation reaction in summary, the following reactions are going to be analysed in detail:
What hypothesis was tested?
we tested the hypothesis that inclusion of explicit prognostic coupling between the carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land biogeochemistry component of a coupled climate system model has important consequences for climate-carbon cycle interactions
What was discovered in the test?
we found that, in comparison to a carbon-only model configuration, the most critical mechanisms controlling the sign and magnitude of feedbacks between the global climate system and the terrestrial biosphere are significantly altered by the introduction of an explicit prognostic treatment of the nitrogen cycle
What is the effect of land carbon cycle?
land carbon cycle responses to interannual variation in both temperature and precipitation have significantly smaller magnitudes for the c-n model, compared to its carbon-only counterpart: globally integrated responses are smaller by factors of 4.3 and 2.4 for temperature and precipitation, respectively
we tested the hypothesis that inclusion of explicit prognostic coupling between the carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land biogeochemistry component of a coupled climate system model has important consequences for climate-carbon cycle interactions. we found that, in comparison to a carbon-only model configuration, the most critical mechanisms controlling the sign and magnitude of feedbacks between the global climate system and the terrestrial biosphere are significantly altered by the introduction of an explicit prognostic treatment of the nitrogen cycle. specifically: 1. sensitivity of land carbon uptake to increasing atmospheric co2 concentration is smaller by a factor of 3.6 for c-n versus carbon-only model configurations, with a shift for the c-n model toward proportionally more carbon uptake in vegetation and less in soil organic matter. total carbon uptake due to increasing atmospheric co2 over the period 2000-2100 is smaller by a factor of 3.8 for the c-n versus carbon-only model. 2. land carbon cycle responses to interannual variation in both temperature and precipitation have significantly smaller magnitudes for the c-n model, compared to its carbon-only counterpart: globally integrated responses are smaller by factors of 4.3 and 2.4 for temperature and precipitation, respectively. 3. under the influence of rising atmospheric co2
What the term 'greater Himalayan region' is used for?
the term 'greater himalayan region' is used loosely to describe the area covering all the high mountain chains of central, south and inner asia, including the tien shan, kun lun, pamir, hindu kush, karakoram, himalayas, and hengduan
What the region, sometimes called the 'Roof of the World', is demonstrating?
like other mountain areas, this region, sometimes called the 'roof of the world', is demonstrating a number of noticeable impacts related to global climate change, the most widely reported being rapid reduction in many glaciers which has implications for water resources
What role does the region play?
the region plays an important role in global atmospheric circulation, biological and cultural diversity, water resources, and the hydrological cycle, apart from the beauty of its landscape and provision of other ecosystem amenities (bandyopadhyay and gyawali 1994
the term 'greater himalayan region' is used loosely to describe the area covering all the high mountain chains of central, south and inner asia, including the tien shan, kun lun, pamir, hindu kush, karakoram, himalayas, and hengduan; the extensive middle mountain chains that surround them; and the high altitude tibetan plateau. like other mountain areas, this region, sometimes called the 'roof of the world', is demonstrating a number of noticeable impacts related to global climate change, the most widely reported being rapid reduction in many glaciers which has implications for water resources. the region plays an important role in global atmospheric circulation, biological and cultural diversity, water resources, and the hydrological cycle, apart from the beauty of its landscape and provision of other ecosystem amenities (bandyopadhyay and gyawali 1994). the region is the source of the nine largest rivers in asia, the basins of which are home to over 1.3 billion people (table 1). environmental change in the greater himalayas affects much of inland china, central and south asia, and the mainland of southeast asia. the himalayan region is the most critical region in the world in which melting glaciers will have a negative affect on water supplies in the next few decades (barnett et al. 2005). moreover, the impacts of climate change are superimposed on a variety of other environmental and social stresses, many of them already recognised as severe (ives and messerli 1989), causing uncertainty (thompson and warburton 1985), and leading to contradictory perceptions (ives 2004). the himalayas straddle some of the world's poorest regions and the plains below them are densely populated. within these populations and communities, the impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed, either in intensity within the region, or among different sectors of society. the more fragile the ecosystem and the poorer and more marginalised the people, the earlier and greater the impact. this is inevitable unless concerted and effective action is taken to engage them and assist them to cope with the changes. mountains are part of the coupled ocean-atmosphere and terrestrial systems. continuing climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in the strength and timing of the asian monsoon, inner asian high pressure systems, and winter westerlies, the main systems affecting the climate of the himalayan region. the impacts on river fl ows, natural hazards, and the ecosystem, as well as on people and their livelihoods, can be dramatic, although not the same in rate, intensity, or direction in all parts of the region. given the current state of knowledge, determining the diversity of impacts is a challenge to researchers and risk assessment is needed to guide future actions.
what is the key assumption?
our key assumption is that the climate variables in a given nonlinear system necessarily evolve on longer time scales than the unresolved variables
why areThe closed nonlinear stochastic equations derived for ?
the closed nonlinear stochastic equations are derived for the climate variables alone on longer time scales in a rigorous fashion that accounts for strong coupling between the climate variables and the unresolved variables
what is  the stochastic model for the climate variables ?
the stochastic model for the climate variables alone that is derived from the barotropic flow equations also satisfies an equilibrium statistical theory. simpler examples illustrating the appearance of new phenomena were also given, whereas the general stochastic model equations for the climate variables alone that are derived from the barotropic flow model will be studied by the authors in the near future as well as other generalizations of geophysical interest, including baroclinic flows and coupled atmosphere/ocean systems
thus, our key assumption is that the climate variables in a given nonlinear system necessarily evolve on longer time scales than the unresolved variables. this assumption justifies the approximation that the nonlinear interaction among unresolved variables can be represented stochastically in a suitably simplified fashion. despite the relative crudeness of this assumption, we have developed an explicit and rigorous mathematical strategy for such an approach that is implicit in much of the work in stochastic climate modeling in the literature [1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15, 18, 21, 22, 23, 25]. the closed nonlinear stochastic equations are derived for the climate variables alone on longer time scales in a rigorous fashion that accounts for strong coupling between the climate variables and the unresolved variables. furthermore, the predicted stochastic evolution equations for the climate variables are given quantitatively so the theory is effectively computable but much simpler than turbulence closure. these equations display several potentially important new phenomena not included in the previous applied efforts in climate modeling. these phenomena include systematic nonlinear corrections to the climate dynamics due to the interaction with the unresolved variables and the appearance of multiplicative stochastic noises besides additive noises for the climate variables. we also showed that stochastic equations for climate variables alone can be both linearly stable or unstable, and we gave explicit mathematical criteria and examples with unstable linear langevin equations for the climate variables. such examples with less stable stochastic models for the climate variables on a longer time scale indicate that interactions with the unresolved variables can diminish predictability under appropriate circumstances. throughout this paper we have used as an illustrative example the idealized climate model of a barotropic flow on a beta plane with topography and mean flow introduced by leith these are especially attractive climate models because they are highly inhomogeneous yet involve both a well-defined mean climate state as well as energy spectrum. in spherical geometry such models capture a number of large-scale features of the atmosphere we have demonstrated the feasibility of our general strategy for this idealized climate model. we have also shown that the idealized climate model of a barotropic flow can be made fully consistent with equilibrium statistical theory by appropriate constraints on the parameters in the stochastic model. furthermore, we have demonstrated that the stochastic model for the climate variables alone that is derived from the barotropic flow equations also satisfies an equilibrium statistical theory. simpler examples illustrating the appearance of new phenomena were also given, whereas the general stochastic model equations for the climate variables alone that are derived from the barotropic flow model will be studied by the authors in the near future as well as other generalizations of geophysical interest, including baroclinic flows and coupled atmosphere/ocean systems.
What two measures are included in the analysis?
therefore, both the classroom average and each individual's own assessment of the classroom climate are included in the analysis
as alluded to above, this is not the first study to test the impact of classroom discussion on civic education. however, previous studies share a common weakness in determining whether political discussion in the classroom is havingthe presumed effect. past research has relied on respondents to indicate the degree to which social and politicalissuesare discussed in their classes, leaving the strongpossibility that itis being politically engaged that leads adolescents to perceive a greater degree of political discussion in their schools, rather than the other way around. the analysis below works around this problem by not relying solely on an individual's self-report regarding the level ofopennesswithinthe classroom. instead,the opennessof the classroom climate is estimated by averaging the perceptions of multiple respondents in the same classroom. the use of the classroom mean to measure exposure to political discussion in the classroom also does not account for the fact that within a given classroom, students will differ in their assessment of the degree to which there is discussionof contested issues. it is likely that adolescents who perceive that there is more discussion are also going to be more politically engaged. therefore, both the classroom average and each individual's own assessment of the classroom climate are included in the analysis. the complication with including both measures of classroom climate in a single equation is that they are highly correlated with each other. to separate individuals' own perception from the aggregate (classroom-level) values, therefore, the two measures have been ''purged'' of any correlation. for the individual respondent's assessment, this has been done by regressing the individual's own classroom environment score on the class mean, and saving the residuals individual perception
With what does the poleward shift of the storm tend to be accompanied ?
poleward shifts in surface wind stress and precipitation
What does the result highlight in the future?
the integral role that the storm tracks play in the climate system, and the importance of understanding how and why they will change in the future
How many simulation models were used?
15 coupled climate models
a consistent poleward and upward shift and intensification of the storm tracks is found in an ensemble of 21st century climate simulations performed by 15 coupled climate models. the shift of the storm tracks is accompanied by a poleward shift and upward expansion of the midlatitude baroclinic regions associated with enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and increased tropopause height. the poleward shift in baroclinicity is augmented in the southern hemisphere and partially offset in the northern hemisphere by changes in the surface meridional temperature gradient. the poleward shift of the storm tracks also tends to be accompanied by poleward shifts in surface wind stress and precipitation, and a shift towards the high index state of the annular modes. these results highlight the integral role that the storm tracks play in the climate system, and the importance of understanding how and why they will change in the future. citation: yin, j. h. (2005), a consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate, geophys. res. lett. 32 l18701, doi:10.1029/2005gl023684.
What is the best response to climate change?
summary it is doubtful whether farmers know immediately what constitutes the best response to climate change when such agricultural practices as it requires are outside their range of experience. nor can they be expected to recognize immediately that the climate has changed. together these facts point to a period of transitional losses of unknown duration as a result of adapting to climate change
What is the objective of this analysis?
the objective of this paper is to determine the ability of farmers in africa to detect climate change, and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. the paper also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it
What is the study based on? how is the survey projected?
the study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 different african countries. the survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined. those with the greatest experience of farming are more likely to notice climate change. this is consistent with farmers engaging in bayesian updating of their prior beliefs. statistical tests also reveal significant spatial clustering in the proportion of farmers claiming to have observed particular forms of climate change. alternatively put, neighboring farmers tell a consistent story
summary it is doubtful whether farmers know immediately what constitutes the best response to climate change when such agricultural practices as it requires are outside their range of experience. nor can they be expected to recognize immediately that the climate has changed. together these facts point to a period of transitional losses of unknown duration as a result of adapting to climate change. the objective of this paper is to determine the ability of farmers in africa to detect climate change, and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. the paper also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it. the study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 different african countries. the survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined. those with the greatest experience of farming are more likely to notice climate change. this is consistent with farmers engaging in bayesian updating of their prior beliefs. statistical tests also reveal significant spatial clustering in the proportion of farmers claiming to have observed particular forms of climate change. alternatively put, neighboring farmers tell a consistent story. unfortunately evidence about whether farmers' perceptions of climate change tally with records from weather monitoring stations is somewhat equivocal. in many cases available climate records are shorter than the memories of the farmers themselves. among adaptations made in response to climate change, planting different varieties of the same crop and changing dates of planting are important everywhere. but stratifying the data by the precise perception of climate change (for example increased precipitation, decreased precipitation, changes in the timing of the rains, etc.) provides greater insights. when temperatures change farmers plant different varieties, move from farming to non-farming activities, practice increased water conservation and use shading and sheltering techniques. for changes in precipitation and particularly in the timing of the rains, varying the planting date appears to be an important response. there is also evidence that adaptation measures are linked to baseline climate and that adaptation occurs mainly on those sites that are already marginal in the sense of being hot and dry. there are important differences in the propensity of farmers living in different locations to adapt and there may be institutional impediments to adaptation in certain countries. although large numbers of farmers perceive no barriers to adaptation those that do perceive them tend to cite their poverty and inability to borrow. few if any farmers mentioned lack of appropriate seed, security of tenure and market accessibility as problems. those farmers who perceive climate change but fail to respond may require particular incentives or assistance to do what is ultimately in their own best interests. adaptation to climate change actually involves a two-stage process: first perceiving that climate change has occurred and then deciding whether or not to adopt a particular measure. this gives rise to a sample selectivity problem since only those individuals who perceive climate change will adapt, whereas we wish to make statements about the population of agriculturalists in general. 2 using heckman's sample selectivity probit model, econometric investigation reveals that although experienced farmers are more likely to perceive climate change, it is educated farmers who are more likely to respond by making at least one adaptation. farmers who have enjoyed free extension advice and who are situated close to the market where they sell their produce are also more likely to adapt to climate change. land tenure has little if any impact on the propensity of farmers to adapt. in terms of policy implications it appears that improved farmer education would do most to hasten adaptation. the provision of free extension advice may also play a role in promoting adaptation. in so far as distance to the selling market is a significant determinant of whether a farmer adapts to climate change, it may be that improved transport links would improve adaptation although the precise mechanism underlying this is unclear. better roads may allow farmers to move from subsistence farming to cash crops, or facilitate the exchange of ideas through more regular trips to the market. there are many country specific differences in the propensity of farmers to adapt and further analysis would be required to understand the underlying factors. adaptation, however, is something undertaken only by those who perceive climate change. the perception of climate change appears to hinge on farmer experience and the availability of free extension advice specifically related to climate change. but while the policy options for promoting an increased awareness of climate change are more limited the perception of climate change is already high.
What is the requirement for good adaptation?
good" adaptation requires consideration of immediate and long-term vulnerability in climatic and developmental terms
Why they need development objectives?
yet development objectives also need to incorporate projections about how climate will change. in effect, these requirements imply that climate change impacts can be relevant to communitybased adaptation, as long as it remains first and foremost a community-driven process
Explain 2009 climate change negotiations ?
2009 climate change negotiations in copenhagen, where a post-2012 deal on managing climate change will be reached, it is important that observers acknowledge the potential of communitybased adaptation as an important means of reducing the vulnerability of the poorest communities
"good" adaptation requires consideration of immediate and long-term vulnerability in climatic and developmental terms. there is little point in seeking to adapt to likely climate risks without knowing how social and economic trends make people vulnerable, or what their needs are. yet development objectives also need to incorporate projections about how climate will change. in effect, these requirements imply that climate change impacts can be relevant to communitybased adaptation, as long as it remains first and foremost a community-driven process. it is important that interventions are consistent with climate change implications and can form part of a wider climate change adaptation strategy in which specific and longer-term climate change impacts can be addressed at a variety of scales. at the same time, scientific assessments of likely changes in climate need to be open to community-based adaptation as a means of integrating concerns about social vulnerability and development with climate change policy. especially as we approach the 2009 climate change negotiations in copenhagen, where a post-2012 deal on managing climate change will be reached, it is important that observers acknowledge the potential of communitybased adaptation as an important means of reducing the vulnerability of the poorest communities. policy dialogue under the unfccc needs to be open to a new range of expertise informed by insights from vulnerable communities, generated by local stakeholders and development and disaster risk-reduction practitioners, rather than restricted to impacts-based scientific inputs arising from global or national models alone. one sign of progress can be seen in discussions over unfccc's adaptation fund, to support adaptation in developing countries that are party to the protocol under the unfccc. the report of the fifth adaptation fund board meeting in march 2009 noted there was broad consensus among members that small-scale and community-based projects should be included in funding cycles and that community-based projects could also be submitted by governments as part of a more strategic adaptation funding package.43 as the community-based adaptation community grows in size and significance, it is likely that the lessons learned from the increasing number of case studies will begin to permeate the negotiations44 and help create a better understanding of how to build the resilience of the most vulnerable.
What was highlighted in a recent report of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights?
the connection between climate change and human rights has been highlighted in a recent report of the office of the high commissioner for human rights
Where was the March 2009 sesion of the Human Rights Council in?
march 2009 session of the human rights council in geneva
What was in the report?
the report concludes that climate change and the measures adopted to mitigate it threatens to undermine not only indigenous peoples' subsistence and livelihood, but also their cultural and social identity, and ultimately, their right to self-determination
within the united nations human rights framework, the connection between climate change and human rights has been highlighted in a recent report of the office of the high commissioner for human rights.1 the report, which was adopted at the march 2009 session of the human rights council in geneva, outlines various implications of climate change and mitigation measures for indigenous peoples and other vulnerable groups' human rights. the report concludes that climate change and the measures adopted to mitigate it threatens to undermine not only indigenous peoples' subsistence and livelihood, but also their cultural and social identity, and ultimately, their right to self-determination.
In what season does the precipitation have a primary maximum rate in Arizona and New Mexico?
precipitation patterns in arizona and new mexico have a primary maximum in summer
What % of the annual rainfall is contributed during the winter season in Arizona and New Mexico?
a secondary maximum in winter (typically from november through march) provides an average of 30% of the annual rainfall
Reservoirs are caused by high elevantion of melting snow from where?
spring runoff from melting snow from high elevation provides water for reservoirs
at the monthly scale, precipitation over the ucrb is relatively evenly distributed through the year (fig. 3) (whitlock bartlein 1993). in sharp contrast to that even distribution, precipitation patterns in arizona and new mexico have a primary maximum in summer (typically from july through september), which provides up to half of the total annual rainfall. a secondary maximum in winter (typically from november through march) provides an average of 30% of the annual rainfall (barry chorley 1998). areas with a summer precipitation peak usually experience an arid fore-summer prior to the onset of summer rains and a relatively dry autumn, which is especially notable in arizona (bryson lowry 1955, reitan 1957, carleton 1985, adams comrie 1997). although the winter precipitation peak is generally smaller than that of summer, winter precipitation is still considered to be hydrologically important, because much of the summer rainfall evaporates before it infiltrates into the ground and because winter rain falls primarily as snow at higher elevations (bryson hare 1974). summer precipitation may aid stakeholders with large nonirrigated land holdings, but spring runoff from melting snow from high elevation provides water for reservoirs. 3.2. temperature temperature across the region displays the typical seasonal cycle with a maximum in mid-summer and a minimum in mid-winter. mean annual temperature decreases with higher elevation due to adiabatic cooling (fig. 4).
Define dea that science can ''detect and attribute'' in climate change?
in short, the idea that science can ''detect and attribute'' interference in the climate system related only to greenhouse forcing is problematic in a world where climate changes on all time scales because of a range of both natural and human forcings
How to detect climate change?
nd even if science could detect and attribute climate change, such changes occur in a world in which climate already dangerous in varying degrees, based both differing perceptions of what is or is not ''dangerous'' but also because of decisions that affect socioeconomic conditions that, in turn, affect vulnerability, and hence ''danger
who paid attention on framework?
because of the illogic of article 2 of the framework convention, considerably more attention has been paid not only by researchers but also political advocates to the details of detection and attribution than to providing decision makers with useful knowledge that might help them to improve energy policies and reduce vulnerabilities to climate.20
in short, the idea that science can ''detect and attribute'' interference in the climate system related only to greenhouse forcing is problematic in a world where climate changes on all time scales because of a range of both natural and human forcings. and even if science could detect and attribute climate change, such changes occur in a world in which climate already dangerous in varying degrees, based both differing perceptions of what is or is not ''dangerous'' but also because of decisions that affect socioeconomic conditions that, in turn, affect vulnerability, and hence ''danger.'' because of the illogic of article 2 of the framework convention, considerably more attention has been paid not only by researchers but also political advocates to the details of detection and attribution than to providing decision makers with useful knowledge that might help them to improve energy policies and reduce vulnerabilities to climate.20
What is attention?
indeed, attention to the revenue-recycling effect caused some to suggest that this environmental policy might be a zeroor negative-cost option, even before accounting for the environmental bene fi ts. that is, the ef fi ciency improvement from revenue-recycling might fully offset the cost a that applies before this ef fi ciency component is considered
What is an environmental policies?
indeed, attention to the revenue-recycling effect caused some to suggest that this environmental policy might be a zeroor negative-cost option, even before accounting for the environmental bene fi ts. that is, the ef fi ciency improvement from revenue-recycling might fully offset the cost a that applies before this ef fi ciency component is considered
What is revenue -recycling?
indeed, attention to the revenue-recycling effect caused some to suggest that this environmental policy might be a zeroor negative-cost option, even before accounting for the environmental bene fi ts. that is, the ef fi ciency improvement from revenue-recycling might fully offset the cost a that applies before this ef fi ciency component is considered
indeed, attention to the revenue-recycling effect caused some to suggest that this environmental policy might be a zeroor negative-cost option, even before accounting for the environmental bene fi ts. that is, the ef fi ciency improvement from revenue-recycling might fully offset the cost a that applies before this ef fi ciency component is considered. if so, the tax policy would confer a " double dividend: " not only yield an environmental bene fi t but also allow for higher non-environmental wellbeing by lowering the cost to the private sector of the tax system.2environmental improvement could be a free lunch. the prospect of the double dividend generated considerable attention and excitement among policy analysts and some politicians. but then some other economists began to cast doubt on these relatively optimistic conclusions. they drew attention to another effect that works in the opposite direction, magnifying some of the costs of the environmental tax. their reassessment started with the point that, like all taxes on goods and services, a tax on coal is an implicit tax on factors of production. this is because the coal tax increases the prices of goods and services generally, which lowers the real wage and real return to capital. for a given nominal wage, for example, the increase in the overall price of goods and services constitutes a reduction in the real wage. through this mechanism, the environmental tax is an implicit tax on labor.3
What the term "biochar" was used to describe in the peer-reviewed scientific literature in 1999?
it was used to describe an activated carbon prepared from sorghum grain for use in a reverse-burn gasification (chem char) process for treating hazardous waste43
What the Ref. 45 clearly described?
the large reservoir of carbon stored in soils, the historical use of charcoal by indigenous peoples in the amazon region as a soil amendment with multiple benefits, and its potential as a climate-change mitigation strategy
What the Ref. 46, on the other hand, focused on?
the climate-change mitigation aspects from large-scale industrial production and burial of charcoal in landfills
the term "biochar" first appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature in 1999 where it was used to describe an activated carbon prepared from sorghum grain for use in a reverse-burn gasification (chem char) process for treating hazardous waste43. the lead author of this paper, bapat, recalls that they invented the term to differentiate the sorghum-based material from coal-derived activated carbon used in earlier implementations of the process; they had intended to develop similar materials from other grains44. for several years thereafter biochar was used primarily in the bioenergy literature to describe a charcoal prepared from various crop residues for use as fuel. the technological concept of using biochar on a large scale as a climate-change mitigation approach stems from two papers published independently in 1993 (refs 45,46), well before the term itself was invented. ref. 45 clearly described the large reservoir of carbon stored in soils, the historical use of charcoal by indigenous peoples in the amazon region as a soil amendment with multiple benefits, and its potential as a climate-change mitigation strategy. ref. 46, on the other hand, focused on the climate-change mitigation aspects from large-scale industrial production and burial of charcoal in landfills; he did not consider its use as a soil amendment per se to our knowledge, the matching of the term "biochar" with the climate-change mitigation concept did not occur until march of 2005 in a presentation by lehmann entitled "bio-char sequestration in soil: a new frontier"47 which was followed by two publications in 2006 that used the term with its current meaning48,49. lehmann relates that the term stemmed from a discussion he had with peter read while working on the revisions to one of these publications and preparing the 2005 presentation.
How is the term "motivation" defined according to social cognitive theory?
social cognitive theory defines motivation as a goal-directed behavior that is dependent upon context and plays an essential role in behavior (bandura 1997
Where and how can goal structure be used?
goal structure is a prime example of how schools can model and instill motivational beliefs in their students, thereby influencing their academic achievement
What does social cognitive theory illuminate?
social cognitive theory illuminates the generative process of meaning and behavior in relation to person and environment (bandura 1986
social cognitive theory illuminates the generative process of meaning and behavior in relation to person and environment (bandura 1986 ). social cognitive theory defines motivation as a goal-directed behavior that is dependent upon context and plays an essential role in behavior (bandura 1997 pintrich and schunk 2002 ). specifically, environmental factors influence how people think of themselves and their environments and, in this case, how students view themselves as active learners within the classroom. for this theoretical orientation, school climate impacts student development through the quality of interactions in the academic, community, and safety domains, by instilling high academic expectations, facilitating supportive teacher-student relationships, and maintaining an environment where students feel emotionally safe and secure in taking academic risks. social cognitive theory is also frequently applied to school climate research when examining the achievement goal structure (meece et al. 2006 urdan and schoenfelder 2006 ). goal structure is a prime example of how schools can model and instill motivational beliefs in their students, thereby influencing their academic achievement.
When was the paris agreement started?
developing countries succeeded in their demands that the paris agreement establish adaptation to climate change alongside mitigation as a 'global goal' (article 7(1)). the provisions in article 7
Why was the paris agreement started?
mong other means by subjecting national adaptation policies to the five-yearly review mechanism. the new agreement thus reinforces the growing recognition that climate change i
Is there support?
the parties also recognize that 'support for and international cooperation on adaptation efforts' is needed (article 7(6)), thereby underlining the importance that international climate finance will play in helping developing countries
developing countries succeeded in their demands that the paris agreement establish adaptation to climate change alongside mitigation as a 'global goal' (article 7(1)). the provisions in article 7 strengthen the existing adaptation framework, among other means by subjecting national adaptation policies to the five-yearly review mechanism. the new agreement thus reinforces the growing recognition that climate change increasingly poses a challenge especially to poorer societies, as failure to reduce emissions quickly is locking in dangerous global warming for decades to come. the parties also recognize that 'support for and international cooperation on adaptation efforts' is needed (article 7(6)), thereby underlining the importance that international climate finance will play in helping developing countries to adapt to a warming climate. developing countries scored a further victory in having the concept of 'loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change' established alongside adaptation (article 8).31 however, developed country governments were adamant in their opposition to the creation of any legal
When the droughts been noted?
droughts in the past have had particularly notable human and financial costs
Who spent average time for compensating the losses?
in the united states alone, for instance, the federal crop insurance corporation spent an average of $1.7 billion annually to compensate losses from 1980 to 2005, and this number has been increasing stephenson 2007 
Explain the methodology which combines observational datas?
here, we have described a method for combining insights from observational data and projections from climate models to estimate the risk of persistent intervals of aridity in the coming century in the u.s. southwest. in this region where high-quality proxy records of hydroclimate have been used to constrain the underlying features of hydroclimate on decadal and longer time scales, the risk of decadal drought is at least 70% and may be higher than 90%. the risk of a multidecadal megadrought may be as high as 20%-50%, and the likelihood of an unprecedented 50-yr drought is nonnegligible (5%-10
droughts in the past have had particularly notable human and financial costs. in the united states alone, for instance, the federal crop insurance corporation spent an average of $1.7 billion annually to compensate losses from 1980 to 2005, and this number has been increasing stephenson 2007 ). in the future, such losses might be curtailed if the full range of natural and forced hydroclimatic variability can be included in megadrought risk mitigation strategies. here, we have described a method for combining insights from observational data and projections from climate models to estimate the risk of persistent intervals of aridity in the coming century in the u.s. southwest. in this region where high-quality proxy records of hydroclimate have been used to constrain the underlying features of hydroclimate on decadal and longer time scales, the risk of decadal drought is at least 70% and may be higher than 90%. the risk of a multidecadal megadrought may be as high as 20%-50%, and the likelihood of an unprecedented 50-yr drought is nonnegligible (5%-10%). a number of other regions face similarly high levels of risk including southern africa, australia, and the amazon basin. moreover, future drought severity will be exacerbated by increases in temperature, implying that
What forest ecosystems have been greatly impacted by climate change?
fisheries, fraser river and for sockeye and coho northeastern pacific salmon stocks
How long has research using GCM-derived scenarios been going on?
for the past 15 or so years
How can we better represent the range of possible future climates?
multiple scenarios
project title sector or region of focus development of climate agriculture, major agricultural change scenarios for the regions of canada agricultural sector transient climate change forestry across canada scenarios for high-resolution assessment of impacts on canada's forest ecosystems climate change scenarios fisheries, fraser river and for sockeye and coho northeastern pacific salmon stocks research using gcm-derived scenarios has been ongoing for the past 15 or so years. although early impacts and adaptation research projects tended to apply only one climate scenario, it is now recommended that multiple scenarios be used to better represent the range of possible future climates. two recent examples of studies in canada that have used a range of climate change scenarios focused on water management and climate change in the okanagan basin, (36)and on conservation and management options for maintaining island forests within the prairie ecosystem.(37)
According to the Centre for Science and the Environment India, which type of projects are in reality opening the door to a new form of colonialism?
the centre for science and the environment india observes that so-called carbon-fixing projects are in reality opening the door to a new form of colonialism, which utilizes climate policies to bring about a variation on the traditional means by which the global south is dominated.13in
What is the scientific consensus about carbon stored above and below the ground?
there is scientific consensus that the carbon stored above-ground (i.e. in trees) is not equivalent to the carbon stored below-ground (i.e. in fossil fuels
Is there currently any scientific credibility for the practice of soaking-up pollution using tree plantations?
therefore there is no scientific credibility for the practice of soaking-up pollution using tree plantations
the centre for science and the environment india observes that so-called carbon-fixing projects are in reality opening the door to a new form of colonialism, which utilizes climate policies to bring about a variation on the traditional means by which the global south is dominated.13in particular this trend is seen in the use of monoculture plantations which allegedly "sequester" or remove co2 from the atmosphere. scientific understanding of the complex interactions between the biosphere (trees, oceans, and so on) and the troposphere (the lowermost part of the atmosphere) is limited. further, there is scientific consensus that the carbon stored above-ground (i.e. in trees) is not equivalent to the carbon stored below-ground (i.e. in fossil fuels). therefore there is no scientific credibility for the practice of soaking-up pollution using tree plantations.14yet entrepreneurial companies such as face international are charging ahead with plantations while propagating the
why should this matter for overall coal tax?
it wouldn't matter much if there were no pre-existing taxes on labor or capital
what does the fig 2 brings out?
it does matter. fig. 2 brings out the issues
what does existing taxes create?
existing taxes such as income, payroll, or sales taxes create a wedge between the marginal value of labor supplied and private marginal cost of labor supply
why should this matter for the overall costs of the coal tax? it wouldn't matter much if there were no pre-existing taxes on labor or capital. but in the presence of such taxes (such as income, payroll, or sales taxes), it does matter. fig. 2 brings out the issues. existing taxes such as income, payroll, or sales taxes create a wedge between the marginal value of labor supplied and private marginal cost of labor supply. in the fi gure, t0 represents the tax wedge implied by these existing taxes. with this tax wedge, the market equilibrium labor supply is at l1, below the most ef fi cient level l0. the excess burden associated with these existing taxes is given by the shaded triangle in the diagram. now suppose that, in this situation, a carbon tax is introduced. this implicit tax on labor raises the labor supply curve further, to s2. this leads to a further reduction in labor supply; the new equilibrium labor supply is l2. associated with this further reduction is an additional excess burden or ef fi ciency loss. this is given by the hashed trapezoidal area in the diagram. this additional ef fi ciency loss is termed the tax-interaction effect. it is the ef fi ciency cost that stems from the carbon tax's functioning as an implicit tax on labor (or, more generally, on factors of production). it may be noted that the tax-interaction effect is more pronounced the higher are the pre-existing taxes on factors (or, in the diagram, the more distorted the labor market is initially). 3. is a " double dividend " achievable? how do the opposing revenue-recycling and tax-interaction effects balance out? can the revenue-recycling effect fully offset the tax-interaction effect? that would imply that the overall cost of the revenue-policy is less than or equal to the " primary cost, " or area a in the original diagram.
How many years has water scarcity been a significant problem?
water scarcity has become globally significant over the last 40 years or so, and is an accelerating condition for 1-2 billion people worldwide (mea, 2005
What has the The Comprehensive Assessment called for?
the ca calls for concerted action to improve water use in agriculture, if the freshwater challenges of future decades are to be overcome
What has the CA stated?
the comprehensive assessment (ca) (2007) states that if today's food production and environmental trends continue into the future, they will lead to crises in many parts of the world
water scarcity has become globally significant over the last 40 years or so, and is an accelerating condition for 1-2 billion people worldwide (mea, 2005). population growth, economic development and climate change impacts will undoubtedly have a substantial effect on global water availability in the future. the comprehensive assessment (ca) (2007) states that if today's food production and environmental trends continue into the future, they will lead to crises in many parts of the world. the ca calls for concerted action to improve water use in agriculture, if the freshwater challenges of future decades are to be overcome. the localised impacts of global change on water resources are starting to receive attention, but in the same way as for localised agricultural impacts, there is a great deal of work that needs to be done.
What type of information is scarce?
information is scarce about the scale of future potential impacts, and is even more scant for the costs of avoiding them by adaptation, a point stressed in the unfccc report
Which sectors were excluded from the UNFCCC report?
some sectors such as mining and manufacturing, energy, retailing, and tourism, were not included in the unfccc report
What do the few national figures available suggest?
the few national figures available tend to suggest costs in excess of the unfccc estimates
information is scarce about the scale of future potential impacts, and is even more scant for the costs of avoiding them by adaptation, a point stressed in the unfccc report. some sectors such as mining and manufacturing, energy, retailing, and tourism, were not included in the unfccc report. cost estimations for ecosystems, although made, were left out of the final table showing total costs (see table 2 above), due to lack of sufficiently robust information. within some sectors that were examined, the funding needs estimated were clearly only partial. in health for example, just three areas of impact, where there were sufficient estimates, were considered: the effect of climate change on diarrhoeal diseases, malaria and malnutrition in lowand middle-income countries. adaptation costs for health effects in high-income countries were not estimated. a major problem is the absence of case studies to test the top-down form of unfccc analysis. the few national figures available tend to suggest costs in excess of the unfccc estimates. for example, agencies responsible for flood management in england and wales have estimated a need to spend (due to climate change) an additional $30 million annually in 2011, growing to $720 million by 2035 (environment agency, 2009).
What should the presence of plant species in nurseries provide hundreds of kilometers further north than their natural distribution limits?
the presence of plant species in nurseries hundreds of kilometers further north than their natural range limits should provide a big head start for migration in the face of anthropogenic climate change
What are the estimated rates of plant species in the northern temperate zone? They are usually on the order of 0.1-5 km per year
for plant species in the north-temperate zone, estimates of required migration rates for geographic ranges to track climate change over the next 1-2 centuries are typically on the order of 0.1-5 km per year (iverson and prasad 2002; malcolm et al. 2002; ohlemuller et al 2006
What impact can range limits have on horticulture? Can have a profound impact on movement north of range range
may have a profound impact on the northward movement of the range boundary within which plants ultimately grow outside of direct human assistance
discussion the presence of plant species in nurseries hundreds of kilometers further north than their natural range limits should provide a big head start for migration in the face of anthropogenic climate change. for plant species in the north-temperate zone, estimates of required migration rates for geographic ranges to track climate change over the next 1-2 centuries are typically on the order of 0.1-5 km per year (iverson and prasad 2002; malcolm et al. 2002; ohlemuller et al 2006). thus, extending range limits via horticulture, as demonstrated here, may have a profound impact on the northward movement of the range boundary within which plants ultimately grow outside of direct human assistance. at least in some cases, this may allow extinction to be averted.
What does tipping point mean?
in climate change research literature to indicate the point where a system change initiated by an external forcing no longer requires the external forcing to sustain the new pattern of change
What is an example of an external force no longer requiring the external forcing to sustain new pattern of change?
the irreversible decay of the greenland ice sheet.18in a slightly different sense, the concept also plays a role in greenhouse gas (ghg) emission policy when setting a standard for ghg reductions
The use of tipping points often indicates what?
points of no return
the term tipping point is introduced in climate change research literature to indicate the point where a system change initiated by an external forcing no longer requires the external forcing to sustain the new pattern of change.14,16,17an example is the irreversible decay of the greenland ice sheet.18in a slightly different sense, the concept also plays a role in greenhouse gas (ghg) emission policy when setting a standard for ghg reductions. the reductions should be such that global temperature rise at the end of this century should not exceed 2*c. although many reviews in scientific literature19-21suggest that 2*c cannot be regarded as harm-free or 'safe', many believe that beyond this limit, the behavior of system earth will approach 'terra incognita' and might lead to dangerous impacts.22an additional 2*c as an atp is also adopted in 1996 and recently (march 2005) reconfirmed by the european council as a long-term eu climate target of limiting the global mean temperature. in climate change communication, the use of tipping points often illustrates 'points of no return'.17,23
What is the argument here?
in this paper, we argue that alleviating this problem will require expanding the conception of climate models, not simply as prediction machines within 'predict-then-act' decision frameworks, but as aids to exploratory modeling--for scenario generation, insight into complex system behavior, and supports for critical thinking--within so-called 'robust' decision frameworks
What is the broader perspective?
such frameworks, combined with this broader perspective on the value of climate models for supporting decision making, have the potential to simultaneously and effectively address the challenge above
there has been some self-organization around two strategic framings of the problem. the first (dominant) paradigm assumes the need to improve our ability to predict, using physically based computer models, multidecadal, regional climate change as a prerequisite for effective planning; the second to instead improve our understanding of regional and sectoral climate-related vulnerabilities, and the cognitive, social, and institutional contexts within which these will be managed, in light of the deep uncertainties associated with climate change and its possible impacts. these two conversations have to date largely occurred in parallel. the purpose of this paper is to discuss potential synergies between climate modeling for decision support as currently practiced, and the more bottomup approaches to climate change vulnerability and impacts assessment, as a pathway to more effectively informing climate-related decisions. we argue that currently there is a severe underutilization of climate models as tools to support decision making. this underutilization stems from a double challenge noted by a growing number of scholars: a widespread, but limiting, conception that the potential usefulness of climate models in planning begins and ends with everfiner regional-scale predictions of multidecadal climate change; and the general failure so far to incorporate learning from the decision and social sciences into climate-related decision support in key sectors such as water resources, coastal protection, agriculture, and public health. in this paper, we argue that alleviating this problem will require expanding the conception of climate models, not simply as prediction machines within 'predict-then-act' decision frameworks, but as aids to exploratory modeling--for scenario generation, insight into complex system behavior, and supports for critical thinking--within so-called 'robust' decision frameworks. such frameworks, combined with this broader perspective on the value of climate models for supporting decision making, have the potential to simultaneously and effectively address the challenge above. such a shift, however, would have implications for the ways in which users perceive and use information from climate models and, ultimately, the types of information they will demand from these models--and thus for the types of simulations and numerical experiments that will have the most value for societal applications. in this context, we review the use of, and demands on, climate modeling to support these frameworks, in the context of improving uptake of climate information into decision making.
With respect to what cliamte change must be quantified?
climate change must be quantified with respect to the myriad of other natural and cultural issues that face the nation's water managers
On what networks is sound water management built?
sound water management is built on sound, accurate, timely, and long-term hydrological and meteorological monitoring networks that are consistent and that can be used readily to assess and provide decisionmaking tools needed to quantify uncertainty, forecast change, and create the multiphase, multilevel climate scenarios that will provide reasonable and relevant management
what changes will improve water management?
changes to planning and analysis that better accommodate nonstationarity will improve water management
there are significant gaps in knowledge, monitoring, and practice that limit incorporation of climate change considerations into water resources planning and management. climate change must be quantified with respect to the myriad of other natural and cultural issues that face the nation's water managers. sound water management is built on sound, accurate, timely, and long-term hydrological and meteorological monitoring networks that are consistent and that can be used readily to assess and provide decisionmaking tools needed to quantify uncertainty, forecast change, and create the multiphase, multilevel climate scenarios that will provide reasonable and relevant management. changes to planning and analysis that better accommodate nonstationarity will improve water management. collaboration in all these activities may allow more rapid results and improved communication both within the water resources community and to other stakeholders. 6 opportunities to improve planning capabilities 3\\x18
What can the model's net CO2 flux can be compared with?
can be compared with observed changes in co2 concentration (observed largescale fluxes themselves are not available
Which period is free from any volcanic influence?
the period from 1967 to 1981
Why a linear regression has been performed?
to calculate a line of best fit to the data from this period
the model's net co2 flux can be compared with observed changes in co2 concentration (observed largescale fluxes themselves are not available). figure 7 shows observed changes in annual mean co2 concentration after the anthropogenic influence has been removed (as described in section 2) plotted against observed nin~o-3 index from the hadisst dataset. the period from 1967 to 1981 inclusive is free from any volcanic influence, and the two data series show a very good correlation during this period (correlation coefficient is 0.92; significant at the 99% level). a linear regression has been performed to calculate a line of best fit to the data from this period (solid line in fig. 7). the
What is one of the three major climate variability modes that controls plant adaptation in semi-arid and subhumid West Africa?
seasonal rainfall cycle and its inter-annual variability (high frequency
What is one of the three major modes of climate variability that controls plant adaptation in semi-arid and subhumid West Africa?
natural multi-decadal wetting and desiccation cycles (medium frequency
What is one of the three major climate variability modes that controls plant adaptation in subhumid and semi-arid West Africa?
long-term changes in moisture regimes associated with changes in temperature (low frequency
relevance of climate change and variability for breeding in semi-arid and subhumid west africa three major climate variability modes control plant adaptation in semi-arid and subhumid west africa: the seasonal rainfall cycle and its inter-annual variability (high frequency), natural multi-decadal wetting and desiccation cycles (medium frequency), and long-term changes in moisture regimes associated with changes in temperature (low frequency). natural climate change pertains to medium and low frequency modes. anthropogenic climate change expresses mostly in the low frequency mode. operating on different time scales, all three variability modes interact with each other in complex ways, many of which are not yet elucidated. one important consequence constraining tropical dryland crop improvement for one important consequence constraining tropical dryland crop improvement for future climates is that confidence levels are highest for variables that only weakly control crop performance, particularly in the near to medium term: confidence is highest for co2
What is studied in quantitative genetics?
the field of quantitative genetics deals with the selection, inheritance and evolution of quantitative traits, which are the vast majority of those relating to whole-organism phenotypes
What is quantitative genetic aim ?
quantitative genetic approaches aim to predict phenotypic evolution across single generations using specific breeding designs or pedigrees to partition a trait's total phenotypic variation into its causal components (e.g. additive genetic effects, maternal effects
What is  Diallel breeding designs ?
diallel breeding designs involve cross-breeding a number of males and females, such that every male is mated with every female (fig. 3). under such a design, phenotypic variation among offspring is partitioned into variation due to fathers ('sires' in the quantitative genetics literature), variation due to mothers ('dams'), variation due to the interaction between maternal and paternal inheritance, and non-genetic environmental variation
the field of quantitative genetics deals with the selection, inheritance and evolution of quantitative traits, which are the vast majority of those relating to whole-organism phenotypes. they include morphological, physiological and behavioural traits, which in turn determine life-history traits such as survival and reproduction, and the ultimate trait of individual fitness (lynch walsh 1998; conner hartl 2004). typically, quantitative genetic approaches aim to predict phenotypic evolution across single generations using specific breeding designs or pedigrees to partition a trait's total phenotypic variation into its causal components (e.g. additive genetic effects, maternal effects). for a comprehensive treatment of this topic, we recommend lynch walsh (1998). however, for the purposes of this review we focus on quantitative genetic designs that are particularly well suited to marine life-histories and the study of stressors associated with climate change. diallel breeding designs involve cross-breeding a number of males and females, such that every male is mated with every female (fig. 3). under such a design, phenotypic variation among offspring is partitioned into variation due to fathers ('sires' in the quantitative genetics literature), variation due to mothers ('dams'), variation due to the interaction between maternal and paternal inheritance, and non-genetic environmental variation. because sires are assumed to contribute little more than genes to their offspring (an increasingly problematic assumption; see below), the sire component of variation in any offspring trait is viewed as additive genetic variation in that trait. diallel designs have been used in a range of systems to great effect, but their use is particularly suited to the study of marine organisms, because many are broadcast spawners that shed both eggs and sperm externally. this is ideal for diallel breeding designs because ejaculates of sperm and clutches of eggs can be repeatedly subdivided and crossed together such that the sperm of each male can be crossed with the eggs of many different females at the same time (and vice versa for females). a modified version of this
What was funded by the USD 2 million grant from Nepal's Pilot Program for Climate Resilience?
in nepal, the pilot program for climate resilience contributed grant financing of usd 2 million2 - within its larger funding support to the country's strategic investment plan - to fund awareness, knowledge, and capacity building activities geared toward unlocking increased private investment in climate adaptive practices
What did one of the targeted interventions encourage local commercial banks to do?
 encouraging local commercial banks to provide loans to farmers for adaptation-relevant activities, by providing bank staff with training on risk management practices, and assistance in developing new financial products that cater to farmers' needs
What was the aim of the set of activities implemented by the International Finance Corporation?
this set of activities, which are implemented by the international finance corporation, aim to overcome farmers' technical and capacity gaps, and increase agricultural productivity
in nepal, the pilot program for climate resilience contributed grant financing of usd 2 million2 - within its larger funding support to the country's strategic investment plan - to fund awareness, knowledge, and capacity building activities geared toward unlocking increased private investment in climate adaptive practices. this set of activities, which are implemented by the international finance corporation, aim to overcome farmers' technical and capacity gaps, and increase agricultural productivity. targeted interventions include the following: * improving the government's understanding about the role and importance of private sector involvement in building the country's resilience. * enhancing local private actors' awareness about the risks and opportunities associated with changing climate conditions. * involving three agribusiness companies in the project by providing training to these companies' technical teams to enable them to transfer skills on climate proofed agronomic practices to farmers, and by covering part of farmers training costs. * encouraging local commercial banks to provide loans to farmers for adaptation-relevant activities, by providing bank staff with training on risk management practices, and assistance in developing new financial products that cater to farmers' needs.
What also play a significant role?
the temperature transients also play a significant role
What appears to play a significant role in the REOF 2 response?
the heating in the eastern pacific appears to play a significant role in the reof 2 response
What have only minor contributions from all but the transient vorticity forcing term?
the remaining leading reofs (3-5) have only minor contributions from all but the transient vorticity forcing term
in the case of reof 1 (left panels of fig. 14a), the temperature transients also play a significant role, with a response that is in quadrature with the response to the vorticity transients acting to shift the total response somewhat to the west. the heating in the eastern pacific appears to play a significant role in the reof 2 response (middle panels of fig. 14a), although the response is largely out of phase with the response to the vorticity transients. the remaining leading reofs (3-5) have only minor contributions from all but the transient vorticity forcing term. while overall, the swm forced with the merra transients and heating reproduces the basic structure of the leading reofs remarkably well, there are some differences - notably the roef 5 results (right panels of fig. 14b) show a much stronger amplitude at high latitudes (near 60degn), than is found in reof 5. this is also true for the third and fourth reofs - though less so.
What large changes many of the areas predicted to experience?
many of the areas predicted to experience large changes in fauna are in mountainous regions where environmental conditions vary significantly over relatively short distances and where the edges of many species' ranges occur
With what several of the areas of high turnover coincide?
several of the areas of high turnover also coincide with identified conservation priority areas
Why the largest changes in the absolute number of species were predicted for the tropics?
due to latitudinal trends in species richness, the largest changes in the absolute number of species were predicted for the tropics
many of the areas predicted to experience large changes in fauna are in mountainous regions where environmental conditions vary significantly over relatively short distances and where the edges of many species' ranges occur. other areas of high turnover were predicted at ecoregional boundaries such as the southern and western boundaries of the cerrado of brazil's central high plains. several of the areas of high turnover also coincide with identified conservation priority areas. for example, the world wildlife fund lists the atlantic rain forest of south america as one of 200 global conservation priority areas based on its unique and threatened biota (olson and dinerstein 1998). our analyses indicate that the bahia interior and coastal forests of this region are likely to experience large changes in fauna. the potential for large species losses does not mean that these regions should be neglected by conservation efforts, but rather that climate change may significantly limit efforts directed at retaining specific species in these regions. it is important to note that our estimates of faunal change are all reported as percentages of the number of species currently at a site. due to latitudinal trends in species richness, the largest changes in the absolute number of species were predicted for the tropics. given the potential for overestimating species richness from inaccuracies in the underlying species' range maps, we
What can be observed when dry winter follows by wet summer?
such low-flow events have neither been observed in years when a dry winter was followed by a wet summer, nor in years when a wet winter was followed by a dry summer
How the calculated anomalies runs the presented scenario?
the anomalies for the control runs and the scenario runs are calculated relative to the average value for the control runs to correct for the biases presented in table 2 note that in fig. 10 all of the different rcm
fig. 8 occur in years with subsequent dry winters and dry summers. such low-flow events have neither been observed in years when a dry winter was followed by a wet summer, nor in years when a wet winter was followed by a dry summer. figure 10 duplicates fig. 9 but includes the precipitation anomalies derived from the nine 30-year control and 30-year scenario rcm runs. the anomalies for the control runs and the scenario runs are calculated relative to the average value for the control runs to correct for the biases presented in table 2 note that in fig. 10 all of the different rcm
How does the terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming originate?
potential feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming originate from temperature-sensitive processes at biochemical and physical levels
What does the primary processess include?
the primary processes include enzyme kinetics involved in photosynthesis, plant respiration, decomposition of litter, and oxidation of soil organic matter
How is the Temperature regulation of enzymatic activities described?
temperature regulation of enzymatic activities is usually described by an exponential or arrhenius equation (luo zhou 2006) in most coupled carbon-climate or stand-alone ecosystem models
potential feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming originate from temperature-sensitive processes at biochemical and physical levels. the primary processes include enzyme kinetics involved in photosynthesis, plant respiration, decomposition of litter, and oxidation of soil organic matter. temperature regulation of enzymatic activities is usually described by an exponential or arrhenius equation (luo zhou 2006) in most coupled carbon-climate or stand-alone ecosystem models. however, declining phases of photosynthesis and respiration in the high temperature range figure 2 ), which are usually observed in laboratory studies but rarely in field, are usually not represented in models (but see parton et al. 1997). moreover,
What performed best at predicting Quino Checkerspot occurrence?
the model-partition including climatic, topographic, and modeled vegetation and host plant variables performed best at predicting quino checkerspot occurrence
What model worked best for the California Gnatcatcher?
for the california gnatcatcher, the abiotic-biotic modelpartition that included climatic, topographic, and modeled variables for vegetation and three plant species performed best at predicting presence and absence of gnatcatchers
What performed best, the climate only model partition or the abiotic biotic model?
the climate-only model-partition performed poorly in comparison with the abiotic-biotic models
(table 2). the model-partition including climatic, topographic, and modeled vegetation and host plant variables performed best at predicting quino checkerspot occurrence. this model outperformed a similar model, where vegetation variables were calculated from the vegetation map. the climate-only model-partition performed poorly in comparison with the abiotic-biotic models, predicting 23% more potential habitat for quino checkerspot than the selected abiotic-biotic model under current climate conditions (figs 3a and 4a). for the california gnatcatcher, the abiotic-biotic modelpartition that included climatic, topographic, and modeled variables for vegetation and three plant species performed best at predicting presence and absence of gnatcatchers (table 3). as with the quino checkerspot, the climate-only model-partition performed poorly compared with the abiotic-biotic model, overpredicting potential habitat by 38% and yielding relatively high median hsi values for points where gnatcatchers were absent (figs 5a and 6a).
what would be an interesting application of the model?
an interesting application of the model could be in inverse modelling cunderlik and simonovic, 2004 ), which could involve transforming the critical hydrological exposures (e.g. flood levels) into corresponding critical meteorological conditions, such as extreme precipitation events. the local meteorological conditions could then possibly be linked to largescale climatic outputs available from gcms
what could be another application of the model?
nother application of the proposed model could be in the simulation of scenarios by considering changes in one or more variables as predicted by the gcms. this would involve modifying the historical data set by applying change fields to one or more variables simultaneously and then using the modified data set as the driving data set for the model. this will be pursued in future work
by which foundation was the research funded?
the research presented in this paper was funded by the canadian foundation for climatic and atmospheric sciences
on the other hand, wgen and lars-wg cannot be expected to preserve the spatial correlation structure of the data. an interesting application of the model could be in inverse modelling cunderlik and simonovic, 2004 ), which could involve transforming the critical hydrological exposures (e.g. flood levels) into corresponding critical meteorological conditions, such as extreme precipitation events. the local meteorological conditions could then possibly be linked to largescale climatic outputs available from gcms. another application of the proposed model could be in the simulation of scenarios by considering changes in one or more variables as predicted by the gcms. this would involve modifying the historical data set by applying change fields to one or more variables simultaneously and then using the modified data set as the driving data set for the model. this will be pursued in future work. acknowledgements the research presented in this paper was funded by the canadian foundation for climatic and atmospheric sciences. the authors gratefully acknowledge the cooperation received from prof. s.p. simonovic and dr. j.m. cunderlik, university of western ontario. the authors also thank mr. mark helsten for providing meteorological data for the upper thames river basin. references
What is expected of the organisms?
organisms are expected to balance energy allocation in such a way that fitness is maximized
What is the tradeoff that nestling birds are faced with?
nestling birds are faced with a tradeoff between devoting energy to growth or to thermoregulation, and in altricial species it is likely that the thermal environment of the nest site influences the nature of this trade-off
What do heating nest boxes resulted in?
in addition, heating nest boxes resulted in significantly faster growth of primaries, and there was a trend for growth rates of mass to also be higher in heated nests
organisms are expected to balance energy allocation in such a way that fitness is maximized. while much research has focussed on allocation strategies of reproducing parents, in particular birds, relatively little attention has been paid to how nestlings allocate energy while in the nest. nestling birds are faced with a tradeoff between devoting energy to growth or to thermoregulation, and in altricial species it is likely that the thermal environment of the nest site influences the nature of this trade-off. here, we experimentally investigate how altering the microclimate of nests affects the growth, size and survival, as well as cell-mediated immune (cmi) response, of nestling tree swallows tachycineta bicolor in a temperate environment. we place air-activated heating pads in nests of swallows when young were between 4 days and 16 days of age, and compared performance of offspring to control nests. our manipulation raised temperatures of heated nests by approximately 5  c compared to control nests. offspring in heated nests had enhanced survival while in the nest, and we also found that they were heavier and had longer ninth primary feathers at 16 days of age. in addition, heating nest boxes resulted in significantly faster growth of primaries, and there was a trend for growth rates of mass to also be higher in heated nests. there were no significant differences between heated and control nests in growth rate or size of tarsus at age 16 days, and we speculate that this lack of response to elevated nest temperatures may be due to growth of skeletal structures being limited by other factors such as calcium availability. we also found no difference between heated and control nests in cmi response. nonetheless, our results show overall that increasing temperatures of nests has significant benefits that enhance the fitness of offspring. as provisioning rates to offspring did not differ between heated and control nests, we suspect that the beneficial effects of heating were not the consequence of changes in parental behaviour. our results provide insight into factors, other than food supply, that have important consequences in determining reproductive success of birds breeding in temperate environments. keywords reproductive success ae tachycineta bicolor ae temperature ae trade-offs ae tree swallows
What is runoff?
runoff is a measure of water availability and represents the amount of rainfall that runs off the land surface after accounting for evaporation, plant transpiration, and soil moisture replenishment
What countries will be widely affected by declines in runoff?
mexico and central america will be widely affected by declines
What hurricane categories are increasing in the Caribbean?
some models show the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in the caribbean
the main map depicts projected changes in runoff by 2080. runoff is a measure of water availability and represents the amount of rainfall that runs off the land surface after accounting for evaporation, plant transpiration, and soil moisture replenishment. mexico and central america will be widely affected by declines. the map also outlines the mexican states of tlaxcala and chiapas, where eachfor conducted research. the top left inset map shows average annual runoff for the 1960-1990 period, a baseline against which future declines will be applied. the bottom left inset map shows lands suited for rain-fed agriculture, which will be particularly affected by progressive drying in the region. circular, temporary and seasonal migration has traditionally been a means of coping with climate variability in these areas, and permanent internal and international migration out of areas dependent on rain-fed agriculture is a distinct possibility. the inset on the lower right depicts cyclone frequency in the 1980-2000 period. some models show the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in the caribbean.
Why is the assessment of the burden of disease associated with climate change challenging?
assessment of the burden of disease associated with climate change is challenging because of the unusually wide range of health outcomes (and inputs) aff ected.16
What does the complexity of uncertainty partly indicates?
the complexity of uncertainty partly indicates that climate change is not a stand-alone risk factor but, rather, an amplifi er of existing health risks. the unavoidability of uncertainty refers to the unusual
What is the challenge to disseminate the information?
the challenge to disseminate information is about ensuring that the necessary information is available and easily accessible in the right place at the right time
assessment of the burden of disease associated with climate change is challenging because of the unusually wide range of health outcomes (and inputs) aff ected.16 however, detailed estimates are essential both in strengthening understanding of the consequences of failed attempts at emission mitigation and in formulating policies to improve adaptation in those most at risk. the challenge to disseminate information is about ensuring that the necessary information is available and easily accessible in the right place at the right time. mechanisms to ensure that the lessons of experience and experiments in one place can be learned in other, perhaps distant, places are essential. several databases have been established to facilitate learning, such as the uk climate impacts programme database (panel 3) and the unfccc database on local coping strategies. it gathers and disseminates knowledge and experience from communities that have had to adapt to specifi c hazards or climatic conditions.100 it is searchable by hazard (eg, fl oods), outcome (eg, decreased food security), and strategy (eg, appropriate crop selection), and new case studies can be added. the current examples come from various developing countries, including china. there are a few contributions from developed countries, such as a heatwave strategy in philadelphia (usa) and typhoon preparedness in japan. policy responses to the public health eff ects of climate change will have to be formulated in conditions of uncertainty. the complexity of uncertainty partly indicates that climate change is not a stand-alone risk factor but, rather, an amplifi er of existing health risks. the unavoidability of uncertainty refers to the unusual
What has been the aim for federal farm policy over the past half-centry?
over the past half-century, federal farm policy has aimed to boost farm and rural incomes, smooth out the ups and downs of commodity prices, insure farmers against the inevitable disasters of droughts and floods, feed the poor, improve productivity, protect natural resources, and come to the aid of the small farmer
What are some examples of some successes?
us agricultural productivity has doubled; real world food prices have fallen by two-thirds, so feeding the world is cheaper; and the average us farm household is now wealthier than the average nonfarm household
over the past half-century, federal farm policy has aimed to boost farm and rural incomes, smooth out the ups and downs of commodity prices, insure farmers against the inevitable disasters of droughts and floods, feed the poor, improve productivity, protect natural resources, and come to the aid of the small farmer. there have been great successes: since 1 950, us agricultural productivity has doubled; real world food prices have fallen by two-thirds, so feeding the world is cheaper; and the average us farm household is now wealthier than the average nonfarm household. there also have been contradictory and costly policies such as supply control with production-based payments and "conservation" programs that idled land with only minimal environmental benefits.
What did Klein Tank K"onnen generated weather years resulted in?
this resulted in more cold winters and cool summers overall, although there was little change in the most extreme daily weather: extreme winter cold and extreme summer heat
What does synthetic THC collapse scenario suggest?
a synthetic thc collapse scenario was adopted in a recent report, suggesting that two additional scenarios should be considered when developing climate policy--a scenario in which the thc shuts down within the next two decades, inducing 3-5*c cooling over the north atlantic by the 2020s, and one in which the thc shuts down a century from now (gagosian 2003
What others have reverted to represent possible climate outcomes?
others have reverted to creating synthetic scenarios to represent possible climate outcomes
abrupt climate change: can society cope? 2011 that would use monte carlo simulation approaches to estimate the probability of thc collapse, or of winter temperature over a certain region falling below a certain threshold, using a hierarchy of climate models (peter challenor 2003, personal communication). in the absence of well-developed and authenticated scenarios of abrupt climate change associated with thc collapse, others have reverted to creating synthetic scenarios to represent possible climate outcomes. for example, klein tank k"onnen (1997) generated 'typical' weather years for the netherlands assuming heat advected from the warm north atlantic was reduced (a surrogate for thc collapse). this resulted in more cold winters and cool summers overall, although there was little change in the most extreme daily weather: extreme winter cold and extreme summer heat. an even more arbitrary approach to the creation of a synthetic thc collapse scenario was adopted in a recent report, suggesting that two additional scenarios should be considered when developing climate policy--a scenario in which the thc shuts down within the next two decades, inducing 3-5*c cooling over the north atlantic by the 2020s, and one in which the thc shuts down a century from now (gagosian 2003). the plausibility of at least the former of these scenarios seems dubious.
What does removing the LGM Antarctic plausibility test makes appearant?
it is apparent that removing the lgm antarctic plausibility test would largely reconcile the 90% confidence interval (1.6 to 4.7degc) with the climber-2 estimate of 1.2 to 4.3degc (schneider von deimling et al, 2006
What is done to avoid double counting the Antarctic SAT constraint?
to avoid double counting of the antarctic sat constraint, we here perform the monte carlo integration over the mpc parameter set (which is not filtered for lgm antarctic plausibility
a8) for comparison, the same assumptions are applied to the mpc parameter set. it is apparent that removing the lgm antarctic plausibility test would largely reconcile the 90% confidence interval (1.6 to 4.7degc) with the climber-2 estimate of 1.2 to 4.3degc (schneider von deimling et al, 2006). a9) for further comparison we apply the alternative lgm constraint of the east antarctic sat anomaly (9.0+-2.0degc, crucifix 2006) as favoured by hargreaves et al (2007). to avoid double counting of the antarctic sat constraint, we here perform the monte carlo integration over the mpc parameter set (which is not filtered for lgm antarctic plausibility). we assume an increased structural error of
Do most water laws take climate change into account?
most water laws do not take climate change into account
what mechanisms for water management have become more important?
water transfers, which are becoming increasingly important mechanisms
What water problems are expected in the Great Lakes basin?
within the great lakes basin, significant supplydemand mismatches and water apportionment issues are expected under most climate change scenarios
diminishing water supplies are expected to increase competition and conflict over water and increase its value.(41)resolving these issues may sometimes involve changing current policies and legislation. at present, most water laws do not take climate change into account, and would therefore be challenged by the projected impacts on water resources. for example, transboundary water agreements may require updating and careful consideration must be given to potential changes in flow regimes and levels.(58)water transfers, which are becoming increasingly important mechanisms for water management in some parts of the world, often generate new problems of their own. for example, the transfer of water between two parties often impacts a third, uninvolved party, such as a downstream water user. policy mechanisms capable of taking these third parties into account are necessary. within the great lakes basin, significant supplydemand mismatches and water apportionment issues are expected under most climate change scenarios.(59)although the traditional cooperation between legal groups involved in such conflicts has been impressive, there is no fully consistent approach to water law and policy, and the historic success would likely to be challenged by the impacts of climate change.(60)international laws must also evolve to avoid future conflict, as few of them allow for the possible impacts of climate change.
What is the RCA?
swedish meteorological and hydrological institute
What is denoted as To i?
pseudo temperature observations of season i are
What is denoted Po i?
precipitation observations
institute for meteorology) and rca (swedish meteorological and hydrological institute). the rcms have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and cover the european domain of the ensembles project. as calibration period, i choose 1970 - 1999, as future period 2070 - 2099. i consider seasonal mean temperature and precipitation sums, separately for each season. pseudo temperature observations of season i are denoted as to i, model simulations as tm i, precipitation observations as po i and model simulations as pm i; temperature means over the calibration and scenario period are denoted as  tcal o and  tfut o, precipitation sums as  pcal o
Describe the changes in the average climate?
the above discussion relates to changes in mean climate, but large-scale modes of internal variability greatly affect regional weather and climate over a broad temporal spectrum, from daily extremes to decadal changes
Describe the frequency and range under climate change?
their possible alteration in both frequency and amplitude under climate change is a key source of uncertainty at the regional scale. in the tropics, el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is the dominant source of fluctuations in present climate and is expected to remain so14
Give examples of how NSO affects growth?
despite common future changes in mean states potentially affecting enso growth (for example, equatorial trade wind weakening and shoaling of the thermocline30), climate models do not show any systematic change in the typical amplitude of east pacific sst variations46,47. the spread among model responses is likely to be due to systematic errors in simulating present-day
the above discussion relates to changes in mean climate, but large-scale modes of internal variability greatly affect regional weather and climate over a broad temporal spectrum, from daily extremes to decadal changes. their possible alteration in both frequency and amplitude under climate change is a key source of uncertainty at the regional scale. in the tropics, el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is the dominant source of fluctuations in present climate and is expected to remain so14. despite common future changes in mean states potentially affecting enso growth (for example, equatorial trade wind weakening and shoaling of the thermocline30), climate models do not show any systematic change in the typical amplitude of east pacific sst variations46,47. the spread among model responses is likely to be due to systematic errors in simulating present-day
what is the most prevalent  gas in the earth's atmosphere?
nitrogen," the pew multiple choice item on which gas is most prevalent in the earth's atmosphere
how to determine the probability that a woman who is selected randomly and who tests positive for breast cancer in fact has the disease?
it requires a test taker to determine the probability that a woman who is selected randomly from the population and who tests positive for breast cancer in fact has the disease; to do so, the test taker must appropriately combine information about the population frequency of breast cancer with information about the accuracy rate of the screening test. a problem that assesses facility in drawing the sort of inferences formalized in bayes's' theorem, conditional probability turns out to be super hard
what is the problem At the mean level of OSI?
a problem that assesses facility in drawing the sort of inferences formalized in bayes's' theorem, conditional probability turns out to be super hard. at the mean level of osi, there is virtually no chance a person will get this one right. even someone who scores in the 90th percentile is still more likely to get it wrong than right
"nitrogen," the pew multiple choice item on which gas is most prevalent in the earth's atmosphere, is relatively difficult (figure 1). someone with a mean osi score is only about 20% likely to give the correct response. we would expect a test taker to be more likely than not to select the correct response to this item only if she ranks at or above the 84th percentile--a standard deviation above the mean--in a general population measure of the osi aptitude. "conditional probability" is a numeracy battery item (weller et al., 2013). it requires a test taker to determine the probability that a woman who is selected randomly from the population and who tests positive for breast cancer in fact has the disease; to do so, the test taker must appropriately combine information about the population frequency of breast cancer with information about the accuracy rate of the screening test. a problem that assesses facility in drawing the sort of inferences formalized in bayes's' theorem, conditional probability turns out to be super hard. at the mean level of osi, there is virtually no chance a person will get this one right. even someone who scores in the 90th percentile is still more likely to get it wrong than right (figure 1). with this form of item-response analysis (embretson reise, 2000), we can do two things. one is identify invalid items--ones that don't genuinely measure the underlying disposition in an acceptably discerning manner. we'll recognize an invalid item if the probability of answering it correctly doesn't increase appreciably as the latent disposition measured by the osi test as a whole increases. the nsf indicator's "evolution" item--"human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals, true or false?"--is pretty marginal in that regard. in contrast to the
What is the main drawback of the study?
the main shortcoming of the study is that the authors do not clearly define what a bias is, and what nonstationarity of a bias means. in particular they do not distinguish between forced signals and internal climate variability. this imprecision has severe consequences for the design and interpretability of their study. what is a bias, and what is a bias nonstationarity? a bias is by definition the systematic difference between the observed mean climate and the simulated mean climate, i.e., the difference between the expected observed signal and the expected simulated signal
Describe the possible effects of climate change?
this implies, and this is the important point, that a bias is by definition unaffected by realisations of internal climate variability. for a good estimate of a bias, one would need many realisations of both the model and observations, or at least a long series in a stationary climate. consquently, nonstationarities of biases cannot be caused by internal climate variability, but only by changes in the mean climate itself, i.e., by changes in external forcings (for a discussion, see maraun, geophys res lett, 2012). response we would like to thank the referee for highlighting this issue and for the thorough explanations
Table the difference between the average simulated climate?
we agree that we did not discuss this sufficiently detailed in the manuscript. we agree that we missed to clearly define what we mean by bias and this apparently has led to some misunderstanding. we will include our definition in the revised manuscript; this definition is broader than the one used by the reviewer and includes all types of systematic errors, i.e. not only the mean as first moment but also other moments and statistical properties. we do not agree with the referee that a bias is only "the difference between mean observed and mean simulated climate". we refer to ehret et al. [2012
the main shortcoming of the study is that the authors do not clearly define what a bias is, and what nonstationarity of a bias means. in particular they do not distinguish between forced signals and internal climate variability. this imprecision has severe consequences for the design and interpretability of their study. what is a bias, and what is a bias nonstationarity? a bias is by definition the systematic difference between the observed mean climate and the simulated mean climate, i.e., the difference between the expected observed signal and the expected simulated signal. this implies, and this is the important point, that a bias is by definition unaffected by realisations of internal climate variability. for a good estimate of a bias, one would need many realisations of both the model and observations, or at least a long series in a stationary climate. consquently, nonstationarities of biases cannot be caused by internal climate variability, but only by changes in the mean climate itself, i.e., by changes in external forcings (for a discussion, see maraun, geophys res lett, 2012). response we would like to thank the referee for highlighting this issue and for the thorough explanations. we agree that we did not discuss this sufficiently detailed in the manuscript. we agree that we missed to clearly define what we mean by bias and this apparently has led to some misunderstanding. we will include our definition in the revised manuscript; this definition is broader than the one used by the reviewer and includes all types of systematic errors, i.e. not only the mean as first moment but also other moments and statistical properties. we do not agree with the referee that a bias is only "the difference between mean observed and mean simulated climate". we refer to ehret et al. [2012]:
Can climate change increase probability of biological invasions?
for example, climate change may increase probability of biological invasions42,120and disease susceptibility
Can biological populations cope with climate change?
in addition, the ability of populations to cope with these drivers through rapid evolution needs more investigation.174,175for example, local adaptation to climate conditions and land use patterns are likely to affect species responses to these threats
What kind of scientific research can be done to approach this matter?
to address this question, transplant experiments could be conducted, or genetic data could be collected across species ranges and analyzed together with population data from long term spatially replicated monitoring schemes
to reduce uncertainty in future projections, research on the synergistic effects of multiple global change drivers needs to continue.2,13both climate and land use change will also interact with other drivers. for example, climate change may increase probability of biological invasions42,120and disease susceptibility.173in addition, the ability of populations to cope with these drivers through rapid evolution needs more investigation.174,175for example, local adaptation to climate conditions and land use patterns are likely to affect species responses to these threats.38,157,176to address this question, transplant experiments could be conducted, or genetic data could be collected across species ranges and analyzed together with population data from long term spatially replicated monitoring schemes.
What are the several ways in which the stability of food systems can be strengthened?
these include governments investing in smallholder agricultural production, particularly in downstream activities such as storage, trace, processing and retailing; implementing and scaling up options that help producers to be more resilient to climate volatility, such as the now widespread use of smallholder crop insurance schemes in india and certain other countries; and establishing safety net programmes for the most vulnerable households, such as has been implemented successfully in ethiopia
Using a microeconomic farm model, what did Anton et al find?
that area yield and weather index insurance are robust policy options across different scenarios, and are generally cheaper than individual yield insurance. they also found that ex post indemnity payments can be effective in dealing with extreme systemic risk situation and are similarly robust across different scenarios, even with frequent occurrence of extreme events, although they can be costly to implement
What is insurance increasingly important for?
to help smallholders become more resilient, in view of the impacts of climate change on yield variance and the resulting demand for effective riskreducing measures
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. there are several ways in which the stability of food systems can be strengthened. these include governments investing in smallholder agricultural production, particularly in downstream activities such as storage, trace, processing and retailing; implementing and scaling up options that help producers to be more resilient to climate volatility, such as the now widespread use of smallholder crop insurance schemes in india and certain other countries; and establishing safety net programmes for the most vulnerable households, such as has been implemented successfully in ethiopia (lipper, 2011). insurance may be an increasingly important way to help smallholders become more resilient, in view of the impacts of climate change on yield variance and the resulting demand for effective riskreducing measures. using a microeconomic farm model, anton et al. (2012) found that area yield and weather index insurance are robust policy options across different scenarios, and are generally cheaper than individual yield insurance. they also found that ex post indemnity payments can be effective in dealing with extreme systemic risk situation and are similarly robust across different scenarios, even with frequent occurrence of extreme events, although they can be costly to implement (anton et al., 2012).
Thewave reflected a far more organization-centered and central managed protest space?
the hashtag trended to second place among all twitter streams
mobilization around the march, enabling users to fill in detal?
the sccc strategy of personalizing their public communication meant
filters operate in a communication system, who or what agents control?
campaigns before and during the protest
a further important dimension along which different protest ecologies can be compared is the gatekeeping that distributes various types of actionable information to participants. while there is little agreement about the meaning of gatekeeping (barzilai-nahon, 2009), it here refers to what kinds of filters operate in a communication system, who or what agents control them, and what information they screen out and let through. as pointed out earlier, no one can control a hashtag stream in the sense of deleting messages. however, actors can contribute positively to the shape of a stream by, for example, introducing posts, links, amplifying retweets, and @-ness address (cf. boyd, golder, lotan, 2010; honeycutt herring, 2009). we did analyze retweeting in the streams, but for reasons of space we here continue to focus on in-stream management in the form of linking. broad comparisons between the two twitter streams suggest that very different in-stream processes were at work. #thewave reflected a far more organization-centered and centrally managed protest space, while #cop15 reflected a more decentralized crowdsourced scheme. what is remarkable is that both stayed fairly consistently on topic and displayed little violent disagreement. as already indicated, #thewave hashtag was launched and largely managed by the sccc coalition coordinating the march. the sccc and its supporter organizations used several digital technologies in a strategy of personalizing the mobilization around the march, enabling users to fill in details in the protest narrative and to customize their digital interactions with the coalition. the sccc initiated several twitter storm campaigns before and during the protest. one storm on november 5, 2009, highlighted the official launch of the wave website. the organizers encouraged followers to "tell all your friends and retweet, retweet, retweet! see you on #thewave." (stop climate chaos coalition, 2009b). the hashtag trended to second place among all twitter streams in the united kingdom during the march (twirus uk). after the march, the sccc no longer actively encouraged use of the hashtag, and use died out within days. the sccc strategy of personalizing their public communication meant running the risk of losing control over their message and brand (bennett segerberg, 2011; gillan, pickerill, webster, 2008). yet, #thewave is a surprisingly orderly stream. the sccc apparently did not try to discipline the contents of the #thewave stream aside from for example encouraging retweeting. as expected, then, some of the sampled tweets publicize other
Where is the decadal variability more prominent?
the decadal variability tends to be more prominent in the tropical-subtropical region
What are the two groups of hypotheses about the variability in the tropical Pacific and North Pacific?
one attributes the origin of the variability to the tropics and the other to the extratropics
What did the experiments show about the multidecadal variability in the North Pacific?
the north pacific originates from the extratropics
pacific climate exhibits multiple modes of interdecadal variability. all interdecadal variability modes exhibit coherent variability in the tropical and north pacific although, relatively, the decadal variability tends to be more prominent in the tropical-subtropical region while the multidecadal variability tends to be more prominent in the north pacific. the fact that variability in the tropical pacific and north pacific is coherent has led to two groups of hypotheses: one attributes the origin of the variability to the tropics and the other to the extratropics. the relative importance of tropical and extratropical processes in driving interdecadal variability is difficult to clarify through the diagnosis of the surface climate alone. it is much easier to do this in cgcms using sensitivity experiments. such experiments show that the multidecadal variability in the north pacific originates from the extratropics, and more precisely the subpolar north pacific. the origin of the pacific decadal variability mode, on the other hand, remains less clear. finally, all interdecadal variability is most likely stochastically driven, rather than self-exciting.
What may a global decision maker weigh up?
a global decision maker might weigh the interests of all (currently alive) humans equally, while applying a discount to animal species, and to humans not yet born, not to mention martians
What is Hume famous for?
hume is famous for deploring the tendency of people to jump readily from 'is' propositions (such as comments on human nature) to 'ought' propositions (e.g., op. cit., book iii, part i, sec. i
What argument has been made by the Review?
the argument made by the review rests on an (implicit) analogy: if a parent should not discount the welfare of their children and grandchildren, nor should the global decision maker discount the welfare of future generations
the review defends its choice of a zero rate of pure time preference between generations by appealing frequently to our emotional attachment to our children and our grandchildren. although it is true that many parents would weigh the interests of family members equally, they would nevertheless discount the interests of others, in accordance with agentrelative ethics. similarly, nation states might weigh the interests of citizens equally, yet discount the interests of other nationals, according to agentrelative ethics. a global decision maker might weigh the interests of all (currently alive) humans equally, while applying a discount to animal species, and to humans not yet born, not to mention martians. the argument made by the review rests on an (implicit) analogy: if a parent should not discount the welfare of their children and grandchildren, nor should the global decision maker discount the welfare of future generations. yet it is not necessarily unethical to place decreasing weight on the well-being of our increasingly distant descendants, corresponding to a positive utility discount rate. of course, the fact that our moral intuitions and our sense of justice reflect human nature as it has evolved though time in a way that prevents anarchy and promotes co-operative solutions to repeated 'games' does not necessarily give it irresistible normative value. hume is famous for deploring the tendency of people to jump readily from 'is' propositions (such as comments on human nature) to 'ought' propositions (e.g., op. cit., book iii, part i, sec. i). however, as some philosophers have argued, it would be wrong to interpret this as meaning that hume did not attach normative
What can the lack of control represent?
however, the lack of explicit controls on autocorrelation at high aggregations of one or more years means that longer-term variability may not be well represented by the wg
What advice does the article present to the user?
the user is therefore advised to use alternative means of modulating the long-term properties of the series if this is crucial
Which hierarchical models are suggested?
using hierarchical or weather type models such as wilby et al 2002 and fowler et al 2005
however, the lack of explicit controls on autocorrelation at high aggregations of one or more years means that longer-term variability may not be well represented by the wg. this may be important for some applications, e.g. for water resource models, when reductions in rainfall produced by a run of two or three drier than average seasons, will not be adequately simulated by the wg. the current generation of climate models also imperfectly reproduces such long-term variability. the user is therefore advised to use alternative means of modulating the long-term properties of the series if this is crucial, e.g. using hierarchical or weather type models such as wilby et al 2002 and fowler et al 2005.
What is the main topic of this section?
in this section, we discuss the projected response of north atlantic and european extratropical cyclones to climate change in cmip5. we begin by recapping the results of zappa et al. (2013), who investigated the biases of the cmip5 historical simulations against observations
Is there any density responses of the individual model from the CMIP5?
the individual model track density responses can be found in the supplemental material (available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00573.s1
How were the results of the models analyzed?
we begin by recapping the results of zappa et al. (2013), who investigated the biases of the cmip5 historical simulations against observations
in this section, we discuss the projected response of north atlantic and european extratropical cyclones to climate change in cmip5. we begin by recapping the results of zappa et al. (2013), who investigated the biases of the cmip5 historical simulations against observations. the djf and jja mean climate change responses in the cmip5 models (rcp4.5 minus hist) are then presented for the track density and intensity of north atlantic cyclones. the individual model track density responses can be found in the supplemental material (available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00573.s1). finally, the sensitivity of the climate change response in the rcp8.5 scenario is discussed.
What is the principal component analysis (PCA) used for?
principal component analysis (pca) is used to summarize the main components of growth, phenological, and freezing damage variation measured in common garden trials
How can a seed procurement zone be produced?
to produce a seed procurement zone based on a given focal point, two or three new contour maps, corresponding to the main axes of variation and standardized to the focal point values, are overlaid with the contour intervals set to a desired limit
Can equations be used to estimate the pattern of adaptive variation based upon predicted climate change scenario data values?
equations are derived from present-day climate data, which are then are used to estimate the pattern of adaptive variation based upon predicted climate change scenario data values
principal component analysis (pca) is used to summarize the main components of growth, phenological, and freezing damage variation measured in common garden trials. the pca axis-scores of the seed sources are then regressed against climate data obtained for the seed source locations, and trend surfaces are generated for each main pca axis corresponding to demonstrated adaptive variation. to produce a seed procurement zone based on a given focal point, two or three new contour maps, corresponding to the main axes of variation and standardized to the focal point values, are overlaid with the contour intervals set to a desired limit. figure 2 illustrates two sample seed procurement zones generated using the focal point seed zone method, based on regional white spruce data collected in northern ontario (lesser and parker 2004 ). each zone is derived for the same geographic point (focal point at - 83.0degw, 50.0degn), but based on two different degrees of adaptive similarity within the zones (measured in least significant difference, p =0.05). the species ' -range impact model is used to estimate how well adapted present-day populations of these species would be if transferred to a selected geographic point within a region under a specified future climate. there are two essential elements of this impact model: 1. present-day climate data are used to model adaptive growth variation expressed by populations of a species from climatically diverse geographic localities. thus, the level of adaptive similarity (or difference) can be assessed for a population from a given location to any other location within the area covered by the model ' s data. 2. equations are derived from present-day climate data, which are then are used to estimate the pattern of adaptive variation based upon predicted climate change scenario data values.
Why snow-reliability is so important for Switzerland's economy?
for many alpine areas in the country, winter tourism is the most important source of income, and snow-reliability is one of the key elements of the offers made by tourism in the alps. the financial viability of winter tourism, however, depends on sufficient snow conditions
What can cause the diminishing of the snow cover in the Swiss Alps?
snow cover in the swiss alps will diminish, and this will, in turn, jeopardise the tourism industry
What kind of adaptation strategies have been used in tourism?
artificial snow production
switzerland's economy depends heavily on tourism. for many alpine areas in the country, winter tourism is the most important source of income, and snow-reliability is one of the key elements of the offers made by tourism in the alps. the financial viability of winter tourism, however, depends on sufficient snow conditions. the lack of snow at the end of the 1980s left a lasting imprint on the tourism industry. if the assumptions of the impacts of climate change hold true, snow cover in the swiss alps will diminish, and this will, in turn, jeopardise the tourism industry. 85% of switzerland's current ski resorts can be designated as snow-reliable. if climate change occurs, the level of snow-reliability will rise from 1200 m up to 1800 m over the next few decades. only 44% of the ski resorts would then still be snow-reliable. while some regions may be able to maintain their winter tourism with suitable adaptation strategies, others would lose all winter tourism due to a diminishing snow pack. despite global warming, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of winters with heavy snowfall in the future (e.g. the winter of 1998/99, particularly february 1999). climate change must be viewed as a catalyst that is reinforcing and accelerating the pace of structural changes in tourism. today, adaptation strategies are predominant in tourism (e.g. artificial snow production). as an industry that will be severely affected by climate change, however, tourism will increasingly have to focus on mitigation strategies (e.g. less greenhouse gas emissions by tourism traffic). key words: climate change * tourism * skiing * snow * alps * switzerland
Are our experiences and actions shaped by emotions?
as noted by russell and ison 32 the proposition that our experience and sub sequent action is shaped by a particular emotion is not a new one in experimental psychology
Is attention controlled by emotion?
research by arne ohman and his colleagues (see ohman 28 for a review of the relevant experimental studies) clearly shows how attention is controlled by the currently activated emotional sys tem, that emotion appears to drive attention, and that emotions are assumed to be functionally shaped by evolution
Do our emotions change?
maturana (ibid) explains that humans move in the drift of our living following a path guided by our emotions. 'as we interact our emotions change; as we talk our emotions change; as we reflect our emotions change; as we act our emotions change; as we think our emotions change; as we emotion... our emotions change
as noted by russell and ison 32 the proposition that our experience and sub sequent action is shaped by a particular emotion is not a new one in experimental psychology. beginning in the late 1800s william james 21 suggested that "my experience is what i agree to attend to" (p. 402). research by arne ohman and his colleagues (see ohman 28 for a review of the relevant experimental studies) clearly shows how attention is controlled by the currently activated emotional sys tem, that emotion appears to drive attention, and that emotions are assumed to be functionally shaped by evolution. ohman presents evidence that emotions, particu larly those of fear and anxiety, can be aroused by events that are "outside the spot light of conscious attention" (p. 265). the finding that an emotional change can be elicited by a pre-attentive, automatic analysis of a stimulus, with an absence of any conscious recognition of that stimulus, is particularly relevant to any model of conversational behaviour. following maturana et al. 26 emotioning is a process that takes place in a relational flow. this involves both behaviour and a body with a responsive physiol ogy that enables changing behaviour. thus, 'a change of emotion is a change of body, including the brain. through different emotions human and non-human ani mals become different beings, beings that see differently, hear differently, move and act differently. in particular, we human beings become different rational beings, and we think, reason, and reflect differently as our emotions change'. maturana (ibid) explains that humans move in the drift of our living following a path guided by our emotions. 'as we interact our emotions change; as we talk our emotions change; as we reflect our emotions change; as we act our emotions change; as we think our emotions change; as we emotion... our emotions change. moreover, as our emo tions constitute the grounding of all our doings they guide our living'. i find examples of what maturana means all around me. let me give an example of systemic practice in which, as you will see, emotions play a part.
What is the important sink for tropospheric O3 and how is it modified ?
the deposition of o3 into vegetation through stomata is an important sink for tropospheric o3, but this sink is modified by other aspects of environmental change, including rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, rising temperature, altered precipitation, and nitrogen availability
What is the purpose of   atmospheric chemistry ?
we review the atmospheric chemistry governing tropospheric o3 mass balance, the effects of o3 on stomatal conductance and net primary productivity, and implications for agriculture, carbon sequestration, and climate change
tropospheric ozone (o3) is a global air pollutant that causes billions of dollars in lost plant productivity annually. it is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, and as a secondary air pollutant, it is present at high concentrations in rural areas far from industrial sources. it also reduces plant productivity by entering leaves through the stomata, generating other reactive oxygen species and causing oxidative stress, which in turn decreases photosynthesis, plant growth, and biomass accumulation. the deposition of o3 into vegetation through stomata is an important sink for tropospheric o3, but this sink is modified by other aspects of environmental change, including rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, rising temperature, altered precipitation, and nitrogen availability. we review the atmospheric chemistry governing tropospheric o3 mass balance, the effects of o3 on stomatal conductance and net primary productivity, and implications for agriculture, carbon sequestration, and climate change.
Was was the CESM1 run using?
high-top whole atmosphere community climate model
What needs be done in order to maintain atmospheric energy balance?
changes in the toa radiation over the antarctic tend to be compensated, on annual and longer time-scales, by changes in the atmospheric
What year does the largest increase happen?
austral spring
lw) incoming radiation ((a) and (b)), and the horizontal convergence of the atmospheric energy transport ((c) and (d)), as simulated by the ncar community earth system model, version 1 (cesm1). the cesm1 was run using the high-top whole atmosphere community climate model (waccm) with interactive stratospheric chemistry as its atmospheric component. it also included a full dynamic ocean and a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model (see smith et al. 2013, for details). in response to twenty-first century stratospheric ozone recovery, the cesm1 projects an increase in the net incoming radiation at the toa during most months of the year, with the largest increases occurring during austral spring (figure 19(a)). in order to maintain atmospheric energy balance, changes in the toa radiation over the antarctic tend to be compensated, on annual and longer time-scales, by changes in the atmospheric
Will material and story ideas only be drawn directly from primary sources?
material and story ideas will not only be drawn directly from primary sources
Where will the cue for a story often come from?
the cue for a story will often come from other media outlets
What does the workshop discussion support?
the workshop discussions support u.s. research showing that even in technically difficult fields journalists turn to other journalistic sources in working up stories (wilson, 2000
compounding the generally limited direct experience of contemporary science among journalists is the fact that media decisionmakers work at least one, and often two, steps removed from sources. material and story ideas will not only be drawn directly from primary sources; the cue for a story will often come from other media outlets. the workshop discussions support u.s. research showing that even in technically difficult fields journalists turn to other journalistic sources in working up stories (wilson, 2000). editors--sitting at the pinnacle of hierarchical news decision-making systems--spend almost all of their professional lives in the company of their journalistic colleagues, and rely on their correspondents/reporters to go out and bring back stories. the intense competition among specialists within news organizations can compound narrow and repetitive patterns of reporting:
What could facilitate rapid expansion across environmental gradients?
adaptation to climate, evolving over contemporary time scales, could facilitate rapid range expansion across environmental gradients
What local adaptation is studied in North America?
here, we examine local adaptation along a climatic gradient in the north american invasive plant lythrum salicaria
What decreases investment in vegetative growth?
however, early flowering decreases investment in vegetative growth, which reduces fitness by a factor of 3 in southern environments where the north american invasion commenced
robert i. colautti + and spencer c. h. barrett adaptation to climate, evolving over contemporary time scales, could facilitate rapid range expansion across environmental gradients. here, we examine local adaptation along a climatic gradient in the north american invasive plant lythrum salicaria we show that the evolution of earlier flowering is adaptive at the northern invasion front where it increases fitness as much as, or more than, the effects of enemy release and the evolution of increased competitive ability. however, early flowering decreases investment in vegetative growth, which reduces fitness by a factor of 3 in southern environments where the north american invasion commenced. our results demonstrate that local adaptation can evolve quickly during range expansion, overcoming environmental constraints on propagule production.
From which sample features are identified?
sapwood thickness, capacitance, vulnerability to embolism, and axial and radial conductivity were measured on samples collected from trunks of mature trees
What are different conductivity in both sides?
radial conductivity was higher in west-side populations of both species, but axial conductivity was higher in the east-side populations and in douglas-fir
Capacitance was related with what factors?
capacitance was positively correlated with both mean embolism pressure and axial conductivity across species and populations, suggesting that coordinated adjustments in xylem efficiency, safety and water storage capacity may serve to avoid embolism along a gradient of increasing aridity
in the pacific north-west, the cascade mountain range blocks much of the precipitation and maritime influence of the pacific ocean, resulting in distinct climates east and west of the mountains. the current study aimed to investigate relationships between water storage and transport properties in populations of douglas-fir pseudotsuga menziesii and ponderosa pine pinus ponderosa adapted to both climates. sapwood thickness, capacitance, vulnerability to embolism, and axial and radial conductivity were measured on samples collected from trunks of mature trees. the sapwood of ponderosa pine was three to four times thicker than douglas-fir. radial conductivity was higher in west-side populations of both species, but axial conductivity was higher in the east-side populations and in douglas-fir. eastern populations of both species had sapwood that was more vulnerable to embolism than west-side populations. sapwood capacitance was similar between species, but was about twice as great in east-side populations (580 kg m3mpa- 1) as in west-side populations (274 kg m3mpa- 1). capacitance was positively correlated with both mean embolism pressure and axial conductivity across species and populations, suggesting that coordinated adjustments in xylem efficiency, safety and water storage capacity may serve to avoid embolism along a gradient of increasing aridity. key-words drought; hydraulic architecture; hydraulic conductivity; water storage; xylem vulnerability; xylem embolism.
What is the main cause of most perinatal death and injury?
the joint commission on accreditation of healthcare organization's (jcaho) sentinel event investigation in labor and delivery (l&d) found poor communication as a root cause in over 80% of perinatal deaths and injuries
Why is team effectiveness important?
team performance is important in l&d because a normal situation can transition to an emergency rather quickly
Could a communication failure cause problems?
the leading root cause of perinatal deaths and injuries tracked by jcaho was communication breakdowns, which was cited in over 80% of events
one outcome of poor team climate is medical error. the joint commission on accreditation of healthcare organization's (jcaho) sentinel event investigation in labor and delivery (l&d) found poor communication as a root cause in over 80% of perinatal deaths and injuries.7additionally, the leading root cause of perinatal deaths and injuries tracked by jcaho was communication breakdowns, which was cited in over 80% of events.8in another study, poor teamwork was attributed to 40% of maternal deaths and 45% of near miss morbidities.9team performance is important in l&d because a normal situation can transition to an emergency rather quickly. a rescue team must assemble quickly, communicate clearly and collaborate effectively to avoid needless morbidity or mortality.10,11 received 5 may 2006; accepted 22 may 2006; published online 15 june 2006
what was the subject of the text?
negotiators entered the cop-21
scarred by the experience of the 2009 copenhagen conference, negotiators entered the cop-21 talks with a clearer sense of purpose and determination to reach an agreement. the danish presidency having been widely blamed for mishandling the negotiations in copenhagen,23 the french presidency prepared the ground with a more inclusive approach, skilfully reaching out to a wide range of actors--governments, business leaders and ngos--in the preparatory meetings for cop-21. when the conference itself opened on 30 november 2015, most negotiators and observers were optimistic about reaching an agreement, despite a long list of critical issues that still needed to be resolved. the presence of over 100 heads of state at the beginning of the summit underlined just how much climate change had gained in salience on the international agenda; and
Projections of GDP and GDP per capita are important inputs for which type of models?
projections of gdp and gdp per capita are important inputs for integrated assessment models aimed at measuring the effects of climate change
The researchers propose to create income scenarios by combining population projects for which three demographic factors?
we propose to create such income scenarios by combining population projections by age, sex and educational attainment which have been developed in the context of recent scenariobuilding efforts for climate change research with a simple estimated economic growth model based on human capital dynamics
The simplicity and flexibility of the specification used makes the researchers' method particularly attractive to assess research questions related to what kind of country behaviour?
the simplicity and flexibility of the specification used makes the method particularly attractive to assess research questions related to the macroeconomic behaviour of countries in the very long run when human capital dynamics are the core of the analysis
projections of gdp and gdp per capita are important inputs for integrated assessment models aimed at measuring the effects of climate change. we propose to create such income scenarios by combining population projections by age, sex and educational attainment which have been developed in the context of recent scenariobuilding efforts for climate change research with a simple estimated economic growth model based on human capital dynamics. this modelling structure has the advantage of providing an internally consistent framework to simulate gdp per capita paths which correspond to the narratives put forward in the framework of the recently developed shared socioeconomic pathways (see o'neill et al. (2014) and van vuuren et al. (2014)). this contribution is the first one, to our knowledge, to propose an econometric tool aimed at long-run income projection for climate change research which stresses the role of human capital dynamics. as such, several efforts to improve the modelling framework further and account for some of the potential weaknesses of the approach 18 need to be carried out in the future. while the focus of the projection methodology on human capital dynamics lends parsimony to the approach, for many applications such a simplification may appear too far-fetched. this is particularly the case if trend breaks or disruptive short-lived events need to be accounted for in the projection period. further research integrating a more systematic assessment of physical capital dynamics and institutional change should be able to expand the range of applications of this income projection tool. the model put forward lends itself to applications beyond climate change research and provides a basis for further scenario-building exercises. the simplicity and flexibility of the specification used makes the method particularly attractive to assess research questions related to the macroeconomic behaviour of countries in the very long run when human capital dynamics are the core of the analysis. 19
In the case of the mentioned study, how were the samples taken?
samples are conventionally taken from a sampling station on a beach using sample frames placed along a transect either at a fixed number of equally spaced sampling levels or at a set distance apart across the intertidal
What is the shape of sample frames used?
sample frames for the collection of sand and faunal samples can either be quadrangular or circular, and are used to demarcate the area of sand to be excavated. empirical studies suggest little effect of sampler shape
What are the practical advantages of circular frames over quadrangular ones.?
 circular frames (generally called cores) have a smaller surface-area-to-volume ratio, so should be expected to damage fewer specimens than a quadrangular frame of similar area; they are more readily constructed from a wider range of easily available materials (pipes of various types); if small, they can be designed so that they are closed at the top to prevent mobile animals from escaping the sampling device (this may be modified in various ways to allow air to escape, while the core is being inserted into the sediment and to create a vacuum that assists in retaining the sediment while the core is extracted); and they are easily operated by non-expert assistants. finally, whereas the contents of circular frames can generally be removed intact from the ground by extracting the core, those of quadrangular frames are usually excavated using a shovel, and this adds to the likelihood that specimens will be damaged. of course, it is possible to make a core with a quadrangular crosssection, and such a device would have many of the advantages of a circular core, but quadrangular cores have not been frequently used in sandy beach ecology. recommendation 2 circular frames are recommended; in most instances, these will take the form of large cores
samples are conventionally taken from a sampling station on a beach using sample frames placed along a transect either at a fixed number of equally spaced sampling levels or at a set distance apart across the intertidal (schoeman et al. 2003). sample frames for the collection of sand and faunal samples can either be quadrangular or circular, and are used to demarcate the area of sand to be excavated. empirical studies suggest little effect of sampler shape (de grave casey 2000). there are, nevertheless, several practical advantages of circular frames over quadrangular ones. circular frames (generally called cores) have a smaller surface-area-to-volume ratio, so should be expected to damage fewer specimens than a quadrangular frame of similar area; they are more readily constructed from a wider range of easily available materials (pipes of various types); if small, they can be designed so that they are closed at the top to prevent mobile animals from escaping the sampling device (this may be modified in various ways to allow air to escape, while the core is being inserted into the sediment and to create a vacuum that assists in retaining the sediment while the core is extracted); and they are easily operated by non-expert assistants. finally, whereas the contents of circular frames can generally be removed intact from the ground by extracting the core, those of quadrangular frames are usually excavated using a shovel, and this adds to the likelihood that specimens will be damaged. of course, it is possible to make a core with a quadrangular crosssection, and such a device would have many of the advantages of a circular core, but quadrangular cores have not been frequently used in sandy beach ecology. recommendation 2 circular frames are recommended; in most instances, these will take the form of large cores.
Which firm assisted AGU in this executive search?
agu was assisted in the process by the executive search firm isaacson, miller. robert van hook of transition management consulting, inc., has served as agu's interim executive director since the end of january 2009
what is the name of the person, who is going join on August 30 as third union executive director?
christine w. mcentee will join agu on 30 august as the union's third executive director
What is McEntee's field of expertise?
we are very fortunate to have mcentee join us at this stage in agu's transformation to an inclusive, participative organization. we are also excited about her outreach expertise and ability to help agu become an authoritative voice of earth and space science
christine w. mcentee will join agu on 30 august as the union's third executive director. she has been executive vice president and chief executive officer of the american institute of architects (aia) since february 2006. we are very fortunate to have mcentee join us at this stage in agu's transformation to an inclusive, participative organization. we are also excited about her outreach expertise and ability to help agu become an authoritative voice of earth and space science. she is definitely up to the challenge after having successfully accomplished a similar result at aia. mcentee was selected from a large group of outstanding candidates following an extensive international search. agu was assisted in the process by the executive search firm isaacson, miller. robert van hook of transition management consulting, inc., has served as agu's interim executive director since the end of january 2009. he will continue in that capacity through august. in an interview with eos, mcentee outlined some of her goals and priorities and shared her excitement about coming to agu (see the interview on page 156 of this issue of eos ).
What does AGF stand for?
assisted gene flow (agf
What is it hoped that AGF has the potential to achieve?
assisted gene flow (agf) between populations has the potential to mitigate maladaptation due to climate change
Give a potential pitfall of AGF?
however, agf may cause outbreeding depression (especially if source and recipient populations have been long isolated) and may disrupt local adaptation to nonclimatic factors
assisted gene flow (agf) between populations has the potential to mitigate maladaptation due to climate change. however, agf may cause outbreeding depression (especially if source and recipient populations have been long isolated) and may disrupt local adaptation to nonclimatic factors. selection should eliminate extrinsic outbreeding depression due to adaptive differences in large populations, and simulations suggest that, within a few generations, evolution should resolve mild intrinsic outbreeding depression due to epistasis. to weigh the risks of agf against those of maladaptation due to climate change, we need to know the species' extent of local adaptation to climate and other environmental factors, as well as its pattern of gene flow. agf should be a powerful tool for managing foundation and resource-producing species with large populations and broad ranges that show signs of historical adaptation to local climatic conditions.
What does the acronym MESS stands for?
multivariate environmental similarity surfaces
Is is risky to transfer niche models into nonanalog environmental conditions?
transferring niche models (either correlative or mechanistic) into nonanalog environmental conditions constitutes a risky endeavor
Abiotic variables that are continuous in nature typically elicit curves with two tails: which are they?
abiotic variables that are continuous in nature typically elicit curves with two tails: low suitability at low values for the variable, increasing to high suitability at intermediate values, and then decreasing to low suitability at high values (fig. 3
transferring niche models (either correlative or mechanistic) into nonanalog environmental conditions constitutes a risky endeavor. although details of the shape of the species' response can vary tremendously, abiotic variables that are continuous in nature typically elicit curves with two tails: low suitability at low values for the variable, increasing to high suitability at intermediate values, and then decreasing to low suitability at high values (fig. 3). response curves truncated at a high suitability value raise a cautionary flag for transfer. the situation is especially hazardous when the response curve is increasing at the point of truncation.17in contrast (and assuming unimodal responses), response curves presenting low suitability at the extreme of the examined environmental domain pose relatively little danger when transferred to another place or time. in addition to conditions more extreme for single predictor variables, researchers also should take into account combinations of conditions that do not exist in the calibration region. for that purpose, multivariate environmental similarity surfaces (mess) analysis allow a researcher to identify regions holding nonanalog conditions and characterize the degree of extrapolation necessary.65,66
What are the causes of temperature increases ?
global average temperature increases mask considerable differences in temperature rise between land and sea and between high latitudes and low; precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are likely in most of the tropics and subtropical land regions (ipcc, 2007
Causes of climate change ?
climate change has many elements, affecting biological and human systems in different ways
In this paragraph which are the regions are involved ?
the tropics and subtropical land regions
climate change has many elements, affecting biological and human systems in different ways. the considerable spatial heterogeneity of climate change impacts has been widely studied; global average temperature increases mask considerable differences in temperature rise between land and sea and between high latitudes and low; precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are likely in most of the tropics and subtropical land regions (ipcc, 2007). it is widely projected that as the planet warms, climate and weather variability will increase. changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events and in the variability of weather patterns will have significant consequences for human and natural systems. increasing frequencies of heat stress, drought and flooding events are projected for the rest of this century, and these are expected to have many adverse effects over and above the impacts due to changes in mean variables alone (ipcc, 2012).
What is the name of the News Feature?
the bugs of war
What's the issue of political motivation?
if genetically engineered bioweapons were developed, would they be deployed by nation-states, terrorists or criminals
What is the conclusion of the News Feature?
that whatever advances are made on the offensive side will have beneficial spin-offs on the defensive side, is important
sir -- your news feature "the bugs of war" nature 411, 232-235; 2001) brings lucidity to the debate about the threat of biological weapons. until now, most assessments of this issue have been woefully inadequate in that they have dealt exclusively with political evaluations of possible technical vulnerabilities. your news feature gives an up-to-date depiction of the scientific reality behind the lopsided policy deliberations. we would like to add some points. first is the issue of political motivation. if genetically engineered bioweapons were developed, would they be deployed by nation-states, terrorists or criminals? the problem is that as things stand there are more than enough non-engineered biological agents available to satisfy all these categories. second, technical expertise is far too often overlooked. even if a state or non-state actor has the wherewithal to manufacture an engineered bioweapon -- which entails extensive technical expertise and a huge budget -- there remains the severe problem of adequate dispersal necessary for mass casualties. bioweapons cannot be spoonfed to the intended targets. delivery is an exceptionally difficult science, as has been found in state programmes (for example in the united states, the soviet union and iraq) to create bioweapons. finally, in any assessment it is important not to fall into the anthropocentric trap. the dangers of bioweapons directed at livestock and crops are as great as, if not greater than, those designed against people. the conclusion of your news feature, that whatever advances are made on the offensive side will have beneficial spin-offs on the defensive side, is important. despite the overwhelmingly positive influence on society of the biomedical revolution, especially in genomics and proteomics, there are still problems, their potential misuse for weapons being just one. knowledge does not automatically lead to capability. your opinion article in the same issue, "a call to arms" nature 411, 223; 2001) reminds us that, for terrorists, the gun and the bomb will continue to be the weapons of choice simply because these are more than adequate tools for political violence. as a result, we should be wary of being seduced by talk of a 'threat' of super-bioweapons. a balanced response by governments relies on accurate and proportionate risk assessments of the bioweapon threat. without these, time and money will be wasted and, perhaps more important, the real threats will be overlooked. sebestyen gorka*, richard sullivan+ *us council for emerging national security affairs, po box 378 solebury, pennsylvania 18963, usa +scientific department, cancer research campaign, 10 cambridge terrace, london nw1 4jl, uk
What is the most commonly discussed environmental change as a result from human activities?
the most commonly discussed environmental change resulting from human activities is climate change
What are other negative effects of human activities besides climate change?
but there are many other signs of environmental change, including soil fertility depletion, deforestation, and desertification
What is the purpose of the Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project?
to help fill this gap, the european commission funded the environmental change and forced migration scenarios project (each-for) to explore the role environmental changes play in shaping migration decisions
the extent of human-induced environmental degradation has been documented in a wide range of publications. the most commonly discussed environmental change resulting from human activities is climate change, but there are many other signs of environmental change, including soil fertility depletion, deforestation, and desertification. at the same time, humans face massive social, political, and economic changes today as a result of globalization and technological change. although there is substantial information about environmental change, natural hazards, migration, and economic development, systematic empiricallybased knowledge about the links between environmental change processes and migration remains scarce. to help fill this gap, the european commission funded the environmental change and forced migration scenarios project (each-for) to explore the role environmental changes play in shaping migration decisions. this was done through the systematic overview and analysis of relevant natural and humanmade environment degradation processes, as well as the socioeconomic and demographic contexts in the regions studied in the project. the project undertook fieldwork in twenty-three sites around the world.
Which two techniques may be used to estimate flood risk?
flood risk might be estimated using probabilistic or deterministic techniques
What are probabilistic floods?
probabilistic floods are estimated events associated with a probability of occurrence, typically derived from the observed record. the estimation procedure involves surveying historical hydrologic data, characterizing annual maximum floods, fitting a distribution to these annual maximums, and using that distribution to infer events of rare reoccurrence
Describe the term "deterministic floods".
deterministic floods include design floods and probable maximum floods (pmfs) and are estimated without assumptions about recurrence probability. for example, the pmf is the flood that may be expected from the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic conditions that are reasonably possible in a particular drainage area
flood risk might be estimated using probabilistic or deterministic techniques. probabilistic floods are estimated events associated with a probability of occurrence, typically derived from the observed record. the estimation procedure involves surveying historical hydrologic data, characterizing annual maximum floods, fitting a distribution to these annual maximums, and using that distribution to infer events of rare reoccurrence (for example, 1-in-100-year or 1-in-\\x0400-year floods). the most common framework for establishing probabilistic extremes within the united states is bulletin 17-b, which presents "guidelines for determining flood flow frequency" (iacwd, 1982). deterministic floods include design floods and probable maximum floods (pmfs) and are estimated without assumptions about recurrence probability. for example, the pmf is the flood that may be expected from the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic conditions that are reasonably possible in a particular drainage area. the meteorological forcing for the pmf is the probable maximum precipitation (pmp). the pmp is the greatest depth (amount) of precipitation for a given storm duration that is theoretically possible for a particular geographic location. to determine the pmp, the concepts of storm maximization and geographic storm translation are applied.
Impact of The rise in food prices?
the rise in food prices has also caused an upsurge in the number of urban-based, food-insecure populations, a trend that will grow as a result of people being forced to migrate to urban areas as environmental migrants
what if global population increaces?
almost all global population growth over the next 30 years will occur in cities of developing countries
what are the challenges we are facing due to climate changes?
the world food programme, wrote that "in the fight against hunger we could now be facing a perfect storm of challenges, including climate change and increasingly severe droughts and floods, soaring food prices and the tightest supplies in recent history, declining levels of food aid, and hiv/aids
the rise in food prices has also caused an upsurge in the number of urban-based, food-insecure populations, a trend that will grow as a result of people being forced to migrate to urban areas as environmental migrants, and because almost all global population growth over the next 30 years will occur in cities of developing countries. in 2008, josette sheeran, director of the world food programme, wrote that "in the fight against hunger we could now be facing a perfect storm of challenges, including climate change and increasingly severe droughts and floods, soaring food prices and the tightest supplies in recent history, declining levels of food aid, and hiv/aids, which also aggravates food insecurity".67
What ECHAM5 stands for?
echam5 stands for hadcm3/echam5 boundaries
In how manys modules The proprietary loss model by the Swiss Reinsurance is based?
the proprietary loss model by the swiss reinsurance company is based on four modules
A vulnerability curve is derived of?
a vulnerability curve is derived from past damage history (cf. fig. 3 b) for each risk type (e.g. residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural). (iii) the value distribution describes the amount (total sum insured), location and risk type of the insured values
ctl and a2), and era40-chrm. here hc stands for hadcm3/hadam3 lateral boundary conditions, while echam5 stands for hadcm3/echam5 boundaries. 2.2 insurance data and models the proprietary loss model by the swiss reinsurance company is based on four modules (see fig. 3 ): (i) the hazard module is concerned with the location, frequency, intensity and length of the occurred events. the hazard is described with a frequency distribution of different event intensities and duration factors at the model's geographical resolution. a sample wind gust map (of the maximum intensity in the probabilistic set) is given in fig. 3 a. (ii) the vulnerability module accounts for the extent of the damage (mean damage ratio in percent of total sum insured) at a given event intensity. a vulnerability curve is derived from past damage history (cf. fig. 3 b) for each risk type (e.g. residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural). (iii) the value distribution describes the amount (total sum insured), location and risk type of the insured values. it is usually available in national administrative districts or sometimes at higher resolution and disaggregated according to population density. (iv) the insurance conditions comprise all the information on the contract conditions that determine the proportion of the loss that is insured. they can for instance encompass deductibles (self-retentions) and damage limits. no such insurance conditions have been applied in the present study for reasons of clarity. in this study a slightly simplified version of the operational swiss re model is employed. it uses an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and applies only one mean damage ratio value per wind speed, instead of a distribution. the operational model and its slightly simplified version lead to results (climate change
What are the connections that promote stability and recovery at multiple scales of biological organization?
it includes interactions among species as well as demographic and material flows among populations, biological communities
What is Adaptive capacity?
the ability of populations, communities, and ecosystems to adapt to changing climate conditions through a combination of phenotypic plasticity, physiological responses, distributional shifts, and rapid evolution of traits better suited to new conditions
Functional redundancy: what is it?
the capacity of one species to functionally compensate for the loss of another, thereby preventing losses in ecosystem functioning if diversity declines owing to disturbance
connectivity: the connections that promote stability and recovery at multiple scales of biological organization; it includes interactions among species as well as demographic and material flows among populations, biological communities, and ecosystems adaptive capacity: the ability of populations, communities, and ecosystems to adapt to changing climate conditions through a combination of phenotypic plasticity, physiological responses, distributional shifts, and rapid evolution of traits better suited to new conditions response diversity: the diversity of responses to environmental change within and among species contributing to the same ecosystem function (adapted from elmqvist et al. 2003) functional redundancy: the capacity of one species to functionally compensate for the loss of another, thereby preventing losses in ecosystem functioning if diversity declines owing to disturbance
what produces the inability to handle stress?
on-the-ground social inequality
what approach identifies places and peoples who are at risk?
risk-hazard approach
which factors translate climate vagaries into suffering and loss?
unequal access to resources; poverty; poor infrastructure; lack of representation; and inadequate systems of social security, early warning, and planning
the inability to manage stresses does not fall from the sky. it is produced by on-the-ground social inequality; unequal access to resources; poverty; poor infrastructure; lack of representation; and inadequate systems of social security, early warning, and planning. these factors translate climate vagaries into suffering and loss. (ribot 2010: 49) our knowledge of the social dimensions of vulnerability, and the policies and programs required to reduce it, are as yet inadequate (ribot, 2010). a deeper understanding of the diverse causal structures of vulnerability is needed to determine appropriate solutions and policy responses. attention has been directed at the assessment of climate change impacts. this risk-hazard approach identifies places and peoples who are at risk (high exposure), but reveals little about why specific places or peoples are vulnerable and may lack response capacity. following sen (1981), an alternative approach views 'vulnerability as a lack of entitlements' and focuses on society's responsibility to provide resources (entitlements) that enable people to increase their resilience in the face of climate change (adger and kelly, 1999; ribot, 2010). 69
What are two predicted results due to climate change in the Caribbean?
projected to accelerate erosion and coastal flooding
What role does Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) have in addressing climate change?
critical role to play as stakeholders seek to ensure that their investments are effective in building climate resilience
adapting to climate change is no longer an option. it is a necessity. examples can be found around the globe. in recent years, erratic rainfall patterns in sub-saharan africa have contributed to massive food shortages of key grains, such as maize and rice. mongolia has faced steadily rising average temperatures for 50 years, which has contributed to warming permafrost and melting glaciers. water tables have shifted as a result, threatening the pastoral livestock sector upon which half of mongolia's population depends. in the caribbean sea, rising sea levels, combined with ongoing environmental pressures, are projected to accelerate erosion and coastal flooding in smallisland and low-lying states. developing country governments and those communities most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability will require considerable financial and technical support to achieve development goals under such circumstances. fortunately, adaptation efforts have evolved significantly in recent years. alongside growing political recognition, a wealth of new experience in implementation has been gained. while much remains to be learned in terms of what constitutes successful adaptation, the time has come to consider seriously how to most effectively use available funding. monitoring and evaluation (m&e) systems have a critical role to play as stakeholders seek to ensure that their investments are effective in building climate resilience. how do we account for success and learn from failures as we confront the complexities and uncertainties of climate change adaptation? how do we know when we are reducing climate risks? to what extent are we succeeding, and who is benefitting? frank fass-metz head of unit climate policy and climate financing, german federal ministry for economic cooperation and development (bmz) manish bapna acting president, world resources institute (wri)
What does the paper presents?
the paper presents a dynamic game where players contribute to a public bad, invest in technologies, and write incomplete contracts
What is done to encourage investments?
the optimal contract is more ambitious if it is short term, and it is tougher to satisfy close to its expiration date and for players with small investment costs
What does the framework do?
the framework helps to analyse emissions, investments, and international environmental agreements, and the results have important lessons for how to design a climate treaty
first version received june 2010; final version accepted september 2011 eds .) the paper presents a dynamic game where players contribute to a public bad, invest in technologies, and write incomplete contracts. despite the n 1 stocks in the model, the analysis is tractable and the symmetric markov perfect equilibrium unique. if only the contribution levels are contractible, then investments are suboptimally small if the contract is short term or close to its expiration date. to encourage investments, the optimal contract is more ambitious if it is short term, and it is tougher to satisfy close to its expiration date and for players with small investment costs. if renegotiation is possible, such an incomplete contract implements the first-best. the framework helps to analyse emissions, investments, and international environmental agreements, and the results have important lessons for how to design a climate treaty. key words dynamic games, incomplete contracts, hold-up problems, renegotiation design, climate change, environmental agreements jel codes q54, d86, h87, f53
What are the developing countries?
with respect to regional priorities, these aspects can be expected to be relevant, too. while poverty reduction requires a regional focus on sub-saharan africa and south asia, more developed middle income countries in other regions of the world (particularly in east asia, but also in latin america or europe and central asia) might well be more attractive investment locations
Are there agencies for large areas of sub-Saharan Africa?
in addition, the poorest countries have the least capacity to even create their designated national authority (dna) which is a precondition for the implementation of cdm activities. for the time being, these agencies do not exist for large parts of sub-saharan africa
How many millions were spent on CDM capacity and enterprise building?
while over 35 million eur have been spent on cdm capacity and institution building, only a small part flowed to sub-saharan african countries or ldcs. most funds focused on the large emerging economies (michaelowa 2004
with respect to regional priorities, these aspects can be expected to be relevant, too. while poverty reduction requires a regional focus on sub-saharan africa and south asia, more developed middle income countries in other regions of the world (particularly in east asia, but also in latin america or europe and central asia) might well be more attractive investment locations. in addition, the poorest countries have the least capacity to even create their designated national authority (dna) which is a precondition for the implementation of cdm activities. for the time being, these agencies do not exist for large parts of sub-saharan africa. while over 35 million eur have been spent on cdm capacity and institution building, only a small part flowed to sub-saharan african countries or ldcs. most funds focused on the large emerging economies (michaelowa 2004).
How to estimate health effects of heat?
the health effects of heat can be estimated using the heat threshold and the heat slope
How does  temperature-mortality relationship like ?
the temperature-mortality relationship is usually a non-linear u-, vor j-shape
What is heat threshold ?
the heat threshold is the temperature at which the harmful effect of heat begins to occur, and the heat slope measures the size of this effect (hajat and kosatsky 2010). a significant geographic variability has been observed in both heat thresholds and slopes. heat thresholds tend to be higher in warmer locations, suggesting acclimatization (baccini et al. 2008; medina-ramon and schwartz 2007
the health effects of heat can be estimated using the heat threshold and the heat slope. the temperature-mortality relationship is usually a non-linear u-, vor j-shape. many studies have quantified cold and heat effects separately, assuming a linear response below and above a threshold temperature (baccini et al. 2008; hajat and kosatsky 2010; mcmichael et al. 2008). the heat threshold is the temperature at which the harmful effect of heat begins to occur, and the heat slope measures the size of this effect (hajat and kosatsky 2010). a significant geographic variability has been observed in both heat thresholds and slopes. heat thresholds tend to be higher in warmer locations, suggesting acclimatization (baccini et al. 2008; medina-ramon and schwartz 2007).
what does the recent IPCC-SREX report demonstrated for the first time says
the recent ipcc-srex report demonstrated for the first time comprehensively that anthropogenic climate change is modifying weather and climate extremes. the report also documents, what has been long known, that losses from natural disasters, including those linked to weather, have increased strongly over the last decades
Why they are more intersted in Bangladesh
bangladesh, a country heavily at-risk, but also with substantial expertise regarding risk management, where we are able to show that economic vulnerability has been substantially reduced over the last decades
To understand future flood risk in Bangladesh what steps are being taken
in order to understand future flood risk in bangladesh, we project risk based on past reductions in vulnerability and compare it to a case where vulnerability is not considered explicitly and kept static
the recent ipcc-srex report demonstrated for the first time comprehensively that anthropogenic climate change is modifying weather and climate extremes. the report also documents, what has been long known, that losses from natural disasters, including those linked to weather, have increased strongly over the last decades. responding to the debate regarding a contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the increased burden from weather-related disasters, the ipcc-srex finds that such a link cannot be made today, and identifies the key driver behind increases in losses as exposure changes in terms of rising population and capital at risk. yet, in the presence of many uncertainties and omissions involved in studying trends in losses, the authors of the ipcc report did not exclude a role for climate change. in particular, one key uncertainty identified has been the incomplete consideration of economic vulnerability to natural hazards, defined as the propensity to incur losses in a hazardous event. focussing on the role of vulnerability in determining today ' s and future disaster loss risk, we critically review the literature on loss trends and projections, and provide context by way of a modeling case study of observed and projected losses from riverine flooding in bangladesh. we find that research has almost exclusively focused on normalizing losses for changes in exposure, yet not for vulnerability, which appears a major gap given the dynamic nature of vulnerability, and documented evidence regarding decreases in vulnerability in many regions. one such region is south asia, and of particular interest to us is bangladesh, a country heavily at-risk, but also with substantial expertise regarding risk management, where we are able to show that economic vulnerability has been substantially reduced over the last decades. in order to understand future flood risk in bangladesh, we project risk based on past reductions in vulnerability and compare it to a case where vulnerability is not considered explicitly and kept static. in the dynamic scenario, risk would
The ultimate goal of our study is to explain Nijt?
which denotes the number of inventions invented in country i and transferred in another country j i [?] j in year t the problem is that substitutability or complementarity between technologies in the recipient country j imply that nijt is influenced by inventions provided by local inventors, njjt, and by inventions imported from other foreign countries nkjt k [?] i j ). as a result, the nijt, njjt and nkjt are jointly determined
What is the mechanisms?
the mechanisms through which diffusion occurs--e.g., labour mobility--are not driven by the market for technologies, and inventors who own the technologies do not play an active role, as they derive no profits from diffusion
Explain about the diffusion of patented technology between M countries?
we capture the interdependence between the nijt, njjt and nkjt with a simple model of diffusion of patented technology between m countries. the decision to transfer patented technologies to another country is made by the patent owners in the country of origin
the ultimate goal of our study is to explain nijt, which denotes the number of inventions invented in country i and transferred in another country j i [?] j in year t the problem is that substitutability or complementarity between technologies in the recipient country j imply that nijt is influenced by inventions provided by local inventors, njjt, and by inventions imported from other foreign countries nkjt k [?] i j ). as a result, the nijt, njjt and nkjt are jointly determined. in this section, we develop a simple theoretical model that captures this simultaneity problem, and use it to set up a strategy for fixing the problem in empirical estimations. our approach differs from most empirical studies on trade flows and knowledge spillovers which usually build on gravity-like models. in our view, the micro-foundations of their approach are too weak to address our simultaneity problem. this is probably not a serious limitation when dealing with the spillover type of knowledge flows: the mechanisms through which diffusion occurs--e.g., labour mobility--are not driven by the market for technologies, and inventors who own the technologies do not play an active role, as they derive no profits from diffusion. but using a gravity model is more problematic in our case because we seek to explain the interdependence between intentional technology transfer through the market. we capture the interdependence between the nijt, njjt and nkjt with a simple model of diffusion of patented technology between m countries. the decision to transfer patented technologies to another country is made by the patent owners in the country of origin. we assume that an individual transfer decision is made for each patent, towards each recipient country. more specifically, we posit that a
What data is included in atmospheric reanalyses?
these data generally include upper-air temperature, moisture, and wind
What method of tracking atmospheric data was used prior to the 1970s?
based on balloon ascents and aircraft reports until the 1970s
Why did Kalnay and Cai53 restrict analysis to sites less than 500 m above sea level?
their analysis was restricted to sites at less than 500 m above sea level to avoid the complexities of surface air temperature in mountainous terrain
atmospheric reanalyses are made by numerical weather prediction models which assimilate historical weather data. these data generally include upper-air temperature, moisture, and wind based on balloon ascents and aircraft reports until the 1970s, and then on a combination of these with satellite data. surface pressure data are also assimilated, but surface air temperatures were not input to, for example, the national centers for environmental prediction (ncep)/national center for atmospheric research (ncar) reanalysis.52however, all reanalyses include calculated surface air temperatures. as these reanalyses are based on a fixed model, they avoid the heterogeneity of operational weather analyses which are based on models that evolve as numerical weather prediction develops. also, the use of a model yields the benefit of dynamical self-consistency. however, reanalyses have so far proved largely unsuitable for the estimation of long-term climate trends because the input data have time-varying biases, and because changes in data coverage modulate the influence of innate model biases on the analyses. nonetheless, kalnay and cai53 used the ncep/ncar reanalysis to estimate urban and land use related warming over the continental united states. their analysis was restricted to sites at less than 500 m above sea level to avoid the complexities of surface air temperature in mountainous terrain. they avoided the inconsistency in the reanalysis when satellite data were introduced in 1979, by calculating trends for the previous and subsequent 20 years. they found that between 1960 and 1999 observed surface air temperatures rose relative to the surface air temperatures calculated by the reanalysis. because the reanalysis was independent of the surface air temperatures and took no account of changes to the land surface, they ascribed the relative warming of the observations to urbanization and changes in land use, rather than to, for example, residual biases in the reanalysis. however, as discussed by trenberth et al.34
What can increase photosynthetic rates?
increasing co2 concentration can increase photosynthetic rates
What differ between species and growth conditions?
temperature optima differ between species and growth conditions
How may transpiration rates even decrease?
if there is a reduction in the diurnal temperature range, then transpiration rates may even decrease
climate change affects plants in many different ways. increasing co2 concentration can increase photosynthetic rates. this is especially pronounced for c3 plants, at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. increasing temperature also affects photosynthesis, but plants have a considerable ability to adapt to their growth conditions and can function even at extremely high temperatures, provided adequate water is available. temperature optima differ between species and growth conditions, and are higher in elevated atmospheric co2. with increasing temperature, vapour pressure deficits of the air may increase, with a concomitant increase in the transpiration rate from plant canopies. however, if stomata close in response to increasing co2 concentration, or if there is a reduction in the diurnal temperature range, then transpiration rates may even decrease. soil organic matter decomposition rates are likely to be stimulated by higher temperatures, so that nutrients can be more readily mineralised and made available to plants. this is likely to increase photosynthetic carbon gain in nutrient-limited systems. all the factors listed above interact strongly so that, for different combinations of increases in temperature and co2 concentration, and for systems in different climatic regions and primarily affected by water or nutrient limitations, photosynthesis must be expected to respond differently to the same climatic changes.
Dimethylsulfide give of what natural emissions?
sulfur
Emissions between what two years are assumed to follow SRES A1B scenarions in ALL and ANTHRO past transient simulations?
2000 and 2004
Who provided the datasets that past and future fossil fuel black carbon and biomass smoke emissions were based on?
t. nozawa
the interactive schemes implemented in hadgem1 to deal with sulfate, black carbon, and biomass aerosols are described in detail in martin et al. (2006). natural emissions of sulfur from dimethylsulfide (dms) and volcanoes are taken to be time invariant and were based on kettle et al. (1999), jones and roberts (2004), and andres and kasgnoc (1998). pre-2000 anthropogenic emissions of sulfur used data provided by s. j. smith (pacific northwestern national laboratory, 2004, personal communication). in the all and anthro past transient simulations, emissions between 2000 and 2004 are assumed to follow those specified by the sres a1b scenario (nakicenovic and swart 2000) and the two predictions follow the sres a1b and a2 scenarios. past and future fossil fuel black carbon and biomass smoke emissions were based on datasets provided by t. nozawa (national institute for environmental studies 2004, personal communication).
Who owns most of the state land?
most land in the state is publicly owned and managed by the bureau of land management, u.s. forest service, or the dept of defense. sagebrush distributions were derived from sagestitch, which is a compilation of the distribution of all sagebrush species derived from epa/gap land cover maps for the western u.s. (comer et al. 2002
What is at the southern part of the state?
the southern part of the state is mojave desert
What elevation do the mountains reach?
mountain ranges which can reach over 3000 m in elevation
study area and species risk to sagebrush species is assessed for the state of nevada, u.s. nevada is characterized by basin and range topography, or north-south trending parallel mountain ranges which can reach over 3000 m in elevation. the southern part of the state is mojave desert, while the central and northern parts are great basin desert. sagebrush species are prominent in the great basin desert. most land in the state is publicly owned and managed by the bureau of land management, u.s. forest service, or the dept of defense. sagebrush distributions were derived from sagestitch, which is a compilation of the distribution of all sagebrush species derived from epa/gap land cover maps for the western u.s. (comer et al. 2002). all species of basin sagebrush (table 1) were included because the species frequently co-occur and because species-level differentiation
What are the limitations of the research objective and methods?
the limitations of the research objective and methods include: 1 attribution of local climatic changes and extreme events to global warming is beyond the scope of this research 2 no attempt was made to estimate total monetary loss and damage at local, national or global scales 3 the local case studies are not necessarily representative of entire countries
What do the findings offer?
rather, they offer evidence that support policymakers in discussions about underlying needs that inform solutions
How should the study and its methods be treated?
the study and its methods should be treated as points of departure for further research on loss and damage in vulnerable communities
the limitations of the research objective and methods include: 1 attribution of local climatic changes and extreme events to global warming is beyond the scope of this research 2 no attempt was made to estimate total monetary loss and damage at local, national or global scales 3 the local case studies are not necessarily representative of entire countries. findings do not support or negate any particular political position on loss and damage. rather, they offer evidence that support policymakers in discussions about underlying needs that inform solutions. the study and its methods should be treated as points of departure for further research on loss and damage in vulnerable communities.
What is RVF Explosion?
all known rift valley fever(rvf) outbreaks in kenya from 1950 to 1998 followed periods of abnormally high rainfall. on an interannual scale, periods of above normal rainfall in east africa are associated with the warm phase of the el nino /southern oscillation (enso) phenomenon
What is mean by dambos?
anomalous rainfall floods mosquito-breeding habitats called dambos which contain transovarially infected mosquito eggs. the eggs hatch aedes mosquitoes that transmit the rvf virus preferentially to livestock and to humans as well
Describe the relationship between mutual climate change and RVF eruptions?
analysis of historical data on rvf outbreaks and indicators of enso (including pacific and indian ocean sea surface temperatures and the southern oscillation index) indicates that more than three quarters of the rvf outbreaks have occurred during warm enso event periods. mapping of ecological conditions using satellite normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi) data show that areas where outbreaks have occurred during the satellite recording period (1981-1998) show anomalous positive departures in vegetation greenness, an indicator of above-normal precipitation. this is particularly observed in arid areas of east africa, which are predominantly impacted by this disease. these results indicate a close association between interannual climate variability and rvf outbreaks in kenya
all known rift valley fever(rvf) outbreaks in kenya from 1950 to 1998 followed periods of abnormally high rainfall. on an interannual scale, periods of above normal rainfall in east africa are associated with the warm phase of the el nino /southern oscillation (enso) phenomenon. anomalous rainfall floods mosquito-breeding habitats called dambos which contain transovarially infected mosquito eggs. the eggs hatch aedes mosquitoes that transmit the rvf virus preferentially to livestock and to humans as well. analysis of historical data on rvf outbreaks and indicators of enso (including pacific and indian ocean sea surface temperatures and the southern oscillation index) indicates that more than three quarters of the rvf outbreaks have occurred during warm enso event periods. mapping of ecological conditions using satellite normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi) data show that areas where outbreaks have occurred during the satellite recording period (1981-1998) show anomalous positive departures in vegetation greenness, an indicator of above-normal precipitation. this is particularly observed in arid areas of east africa, which are predominantly impacted by this disease. these results indicate a close association between interannual climate variability and rvf outbreaks in kenya.
Where is a hotspot of global biomass reduction?
satellite observations identify the mongolian steppes as a hotspot of global biomass reduction
Variations in rainfall and surface temperature explain __% of VOD declines.
approximately 60% of the vod declines can be directly explained by variations in rainfall and surface temperature
What needs to be understood to conserve the grasslands?
the relative contributions of climate and human activities to degradation need to be understood
satellite observations identify the mongolian steppes as a hotspot of global biomass reduction, the extent of which is comparable with tropical rainforest deforestation. to conserve or restore these grasslands, the relative contributions of climate and human activities to degradation need to be understood. here we use a recently developed 21-year (1988-2008) record of satellite based vegetation optical depth (vod, a proxy for vegetation water content and aboveground biomass), to show that nearly all steppe grasslands in mongolia experienced significant decreases in vod. approximately 60% of the vod declines can be directly explained by variations in rainfall and surface temperature. after removing these climate induced influences, a significant decreasing trend still persists in the vod residuals across regions of mongolia. correlations in spatial patterns and temporal trends suggest that a marked increase in goat density with associated grazing pressures and wild fires are the most likely non-climatic factors behind grassland degradation.
What results are presented in Table 4?
results from the multivariate probit model of determinants of adaptation measures are presented in table 4
What assumption do the results support?
the results supports the assumption of interdependence between the different adaptation options which may be due to complementarity in the different adaptation options and also from omitted household-specific and other factors that affect uptake of all the adaptation options
What did the study estimate?
the study estimated a multivariate probit model and for comparison a univariate probit model for each of the seven adaptation options
determinants of adaptation measures to climate change the study estimated a multivariate probit model and for comparison a univariate probit model for each of the seven adaptation options. results from the multivariate probit model of determinants of adaptation measures are presented in table 4. the results of the correlation coefficients of the error terms are significant (based on the t-test statistic) for any pairs of equations indicating that they are correlated. the results on correlation coefficients of the error terms indicate that there are complementarities (positive correlation) between different adaptation options being used by farmers. the results supports the assumption of interdependence between the different adaptation options which may be due to complementarity in the different adaptation options and also from omitted household-specific and other factors that affect uptake of all the adaptation options. another important point to note from the results is that there are substantial differences in the estimated coefficients across equations that support the appropriateness of differentiating between adaptation options.
North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks from 1950 to 2007 were separated into how many clusters?
north atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks from 1950 to 2007 were objectively separated into four clusters and analyzed to identify intrabasin variability and trends and their relationships with modes of climate variability
how did The zonal separation capture ?
the zonal separation captured by the cluster analysis identifies the subsets of gulf of mexico storms and storms spawned within the subset of african easterly waves that form on the northern side of the african easterly jet. cluster climatologies show differences in seasonality and general characteristics of the storms within each cluster
how are The tropical cluster members modulated ?
the tropical cluster members are most strongly modulated by the atlantic meridional mode (amm) and el nin~o- southern oscillation (enso), while the madden-julian oscillation (mjo) modulates gulf of mexico storms and the north atlantic oscillation (nao) modulates the higher-latitude storms outside of the gulf of mexico
north atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks from 1950 to 2007 were objectively separated into four clusters and analyzed to identify intrabasin variability and trends and their relationships with modes of climate variability. the clusters capture a meridional separation between more tropical systems and their higher-latitude counterparts that interact with a more baroclinic environment. the zonal separation captured by the cluster analysis identifies the subsets of gulf of mexico storms and storms spawned within the subset of african easterly waves that form on the northern side of the african easterly jet. cluster climatologies show differences in seasonality and general characteristics of the storms within each cluster. marked intercluster differences in storm intensity and longevity, and the proportion and destructiveness of landfalling storms were identified. in addition to basinwide variability, north atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes exhibit clear intrabasin differences in frequency and track variability when objectively separated and grouped by clusters. for example, proportions of cluster members exhibit decadal shifts in addition to interannual variability, and these shifts often alternate in sign between clusters. the transition to the present regime of proportionally more tropical and fewer baroclinic systems appears to have begun in the early to mid-1980s, 10 years or more before the very active 1995 atlantic hurricane season signaled the end of a multidecadal period of quiescence. additionally, in the period 1950-2007 the steepest positive storm frequency trends are found within the more tropical systems, which comprise more than 70% of the major hurricanes and overall power dissipation, while gulf of mexico storms, which comprise more than 40% of the total number of landfalling storms, exhibit no trend in this time period. intrabasin differences in the relationships between storm and climate variability were also identified and quantified using composite and regression analyses. the tropical cluster members are most strongly modulated by the atlantic meridional mode (amm) and el nin~o- southern oscillation (enso), while the madden-julian oscillation (mjo) modulates gulf of mexico storms and the north atlantic oscillation (nao) modulates the higher-latitude storms outside of the gulf of mexico. the analyses and models introduced here support the observation that it is not optimal to consider atlantic tracks as a whole when attempting to quantify the climatic control of tropical cyclogenesis and track (e.g., elsner et al. 1996). since storm intensity also depends on genesis location and track, this further suggests that all aspects of hurricane activity are more optimally considered
how approaches used for inlets pipes of a pond?
with relation to the number of inlet pipes, there are two approaches in the literature
How many inlet should be there in a small pond?
only small ponds should have a single inlet
What is the criteria for inlet pipes in large ponds?
larger ponds should have two, three, or more inlets, distant 50 m at the most one from the other 
with relation to the number of inlet pipes, there are two approaches in the literature. one states that the homogeneous distribution of wastewater along the width of the pond should be guaranteed through the placement of a sufficient number of inlet pipes multiple inlets ). only small ponds should have a single inlet. larger ponds should have two, three, or more inlets, distant 50 m at the most one from the other (see figure 20.3). the inlet should not be located in front of the outlet of the pond, even if at long distances, as this facilitates the occurrence of hydraulic short circuits. another approach (mara et al, 1992) suggests, for simplicity, single inlets and outlets in each pond, located diagonally in opposite ends. the argument is that in the case of multiple inlet and outlet structures there may be differential settlements in the structures, altering the relative distribution of the flows (fig. 20.4). should a hydraulic regime approaching that of complete mix be desired in the pond, the inlet pipes should extend to 1/4 to 1/3 of the length of the pond (figure 20.3). should an approximation to a plug-flow reactor be desired, the inlet pipes should discharge closer to the inlet side it is worth reminding that, for construction of stabilisation ponds 629 primary ponds, plug-flow conditions should be avoided as they can cause organic overload close to the inlet end. however, for single-cell maturation ponds, the plug-flow system is thoroughly more advantageous, and no overloading problems at the inlet end are expected. the inlet tubing should be designed for an average flow velocity equal to or higher than 0.5 m s (silva, 1993). in deeper ponds, dead zones are more likely to occur. in these ponds, the design of the inlets and outlets should be made very carefully. in anaerobic ponds, there are indications that a homogeneous distribution at the bottom by means of perforated laterals can contribute to a larger contact between the wastewater and the biomass, thus increasing the efficiency of the pond. figure 20.5 presents some types of inlet devices commonly used by designers (jord~ao and pess^oa, 1995). inlets right at the bottom may suffer blocking problems due to localised silting, in case grit removal is inefficient or the wastewater collection system receives large portions of stormwater, which may include substantial loads of sand. by-pass tubing should be included, allowing the start-up of the facultative pond prior to the anaerobic pond, the interruption in the feeding to a certain pond during sludge removal or for any other operational or maintenance reason.
Explain the climate of central asia?
the climate of central asia is generally continental and influenced by the siberian anticyclone in winter, which acts as a block for western air masses and decreases the quantity of winter precipitation (aizen and aizen, 1994
What are all contains in daily data?
this data contains daily means of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and was available for the hydrological years 1968/69-1987/88 (abramov), 1960/61, 1962/63-1963/64, 1971/72-1972/73 (ala archa) and 1971/72-1972/73, 1978/79-1979/80 (oigaing
What are all calculated accordingly?
monthly altitudinal gradients of temperature and precipitation were calculated according to the formulae and parameters provided by aizen et al. (2000) in the cases of ala archa and oigaing
the climate of central asia is generally continental and influenced by the siberian anticyclone in winter, which acts as a block for western air masses and decreases the quantity of winter precipitation (aizen and aizen, 1994). in the tien shan, this influence is strongest in the northern and eastern parts, and of the three basins studied it has the greatest effect on ala archa. this is the reason for the winterly precipitation minimum in this basin. 2.2 data set hydrometeorological data of abramov was taken from pertziger (1996), the two other basins were covered by the central asian database (cadb, 2003). this data contains daily means of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and was available for the hydrological years 1968/69-1987/88 (abramov), 1960/61, 1962/63-1963/64, 1971/72-1972/73 (ala archa) and 1971/72-1972/73, 1978/79-1979/80 (oigaing). monthly altitudinal gradients of temperature and precipitation were calculated according to the formulae and parameters provided by aizen et al. (2000) in the cases of ala archa and oigaing. for the hbv model, which assumes a stable gradient throughout the year the annual mean was determined. at abramov glacier all lapse rates had to be calibrated.
What is the reason for Abrupt climate change?
results from the nonlinearity of the climate system
What is climate?
as the average weather
What are causes of climate change?
due to natural internal processes or external forcings or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use
abrupt climate change sometimes called rapid climate change, results from the nonlinearity of the climate system, which may lead to abrupt events. the term "abrupt" often refers to time scales faster than the typical time scale of the responsible forcing (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007a). climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007a). climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (for example, by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and (or) the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007a). climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, and so forth) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007a). operations is used in this report to refer generally to water resources operations. the term "reservoir regulation" is used to clarify operations related to dams and reservoirs. the term "gate operations" is used specifically to reference the opening and closing of dam or reservoir gates. sea-level change is an increase or decrease in the mean level of the ocean. sea level can change globally because of changes in the shape of the ocean basins, changes in the total mass of water, and changes in water density. sea-level changes induced by changes in water density are called "steric." density changes induced by temperature changes only are called "thermosteric," while density changes induced by salinity changes are called "halosteric" (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007b). eustatic sea-level change is a change in the global average sea level brought about by an increase in the volume of the world ocean. relative sea-level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and (or) land subsidence. in areas subject to rapid land uplift, the relative sea level can fall (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007b). stationarity is the idea that while climate may exhibit variability, the underlying statistics that describe the climate (such as its mean and variance) do not change over time. rather, these characteristics are stationary. this leads to an assumption that the past represents a reasonable proxy for the future. water resource managers have traditionally relied on this assumption by using historical records of streamflow and weather variation to design and operate water resource systems. however, the assumption of stationarity is challenged by climate change, as well as by other changes to hydrologic systems, such as alterations of land use. appendix d 65
What is rarely used to moniter lakes?
a record of changes in benthic communities
What is the main challenge to combining monitering data and sediment data in lakes?
representativity
How is monitering data derived?
direct measurements and observation, although they can be severely restricted in space and time
the principal challenge in combining monitoring data and sediment data is representativity. monitoring data are derived from direct measurements and observation, although they can be severely restricted in space and time, whereas palaeo-data are indirect and either involve the use of proxies or rely on assumptions about the preservation and overall representativity of the biological material found in sediments. one of the reasons diatoms are useful as indicators of past ecological change is that there can be a 7 7 very direct relationship between diatom communities within lakes and the diatom assemblages preserved in accumulating lake sediments. there is not always a perfect one-to-one relationship; it varies from excellent (e.g.haworth, 1980) to poor (e.g.ryves et al. 2006). in the case studies here diatoms were well preserved at all sites where they were analysed, providing not only an integrated record of the plankton but also a record of changes in benthic communities, a community that until recently has rarely been used for lake monitoring purposes.
What is the Figure. 9.2 36 depicted?
the figure draws attention to how we have selected a new lens with which to engage (understand) these situations
Elaborate Box 9.2?
making them amenable to some form of action that leads to systemic improvement
what are the terms discussed in chapter 6?
the terms 'interdependencies', 'complexity', 'uncertainty', 'controversy' and 'multiple stakeholding and/or perspectives' (box 9.2) as well as that of 'messes', 'wicked problems' and the 'swamp of real life issues' as discussed in chapter 6
aware of this history and drawing on a literature associated with the 'framing' of such situations as 'resource dilemmas' 20, 34, 37 my colleagues and i now choose to characterise river catchments in terms depicted in fig. 9.2 36 the figure draws attention to how we have selected a new lens with which to engage (understand) these situations. i elaborate on the terms that make up our new lens in box 9.2. in my experience there are many situations that could be usefully framed in the terms we now employ in relation to water catchments (box 9.2). by useful i mean making them amenable to some form of action that leads to systemic improvement. my use of this framing is an example of how i juggle the e-ball. i do so with an appreciation of the history of the use of the terms 'interdependencies', 'complexity', 'uncertainty', 'controversy' and 'multiple stakeholding and/or perspectives' (box 9.2) as well as that of 'messes', 'wicked problems' and the 'swamp of real life issues' as discussed in chapter 6
Who are the developers of the model currently in use?
we review the approach of giorgi and mearns
When was this model released or published?
in this section we review the approach of giorgi and mearns (2002
What is the symbol for the number of climate models?
suppose there are m climate models
in this section we review the approach of giorgi and mearns (2002), which also serves to introduce notation for our bayesian development in sections 4 and 5. suppose there are m climate models, xj is a projection of some current climate variable generated by model j and yj a projection of some future climate variable generated by model j we also have an observation x0 of the true current climate, with some associated measure of variability [?] in a typical application, xj is the mean temperature or precipitation simulated by the j th gcm in a particular region for the period 1961-1990, x0 is the corresponding value calculated from the observational climate record with standard error [?] and yj is either the corresponding variable calculated for 2071-2100 or the difference between the 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 values. (giorgi and mearns typically took the latter as their variable of interest; we generally prefer to define yj
How many incidents of debris-flow are recorded in the Swiss Alps?
123 debris-flow incidence in a case-study area of the swiss alps since ad 1570
What have the reconstructed data and RCM simulations shown?
from the reconstructed data and based on rcm simulations, there are also indications that, in a future greenhouse climate, debris-flow frequencies might even decrease in this torrent, given that mean and extreme precipitation events are projected to occur less frequently in summer and that wet spells will become more common in spring or fall
Who has taken on the work?
this work has been undertaken partly in the context of the fp6 eu-project ensembles
tree-ring based reconstructions of 123 debris-flow incidence in a case-study area of the swiss alps since ad 1570 clearly show enhanced occurrence of events during the wetter period 1864-1895 and in the early decades of the 20th century. there is, in contrast, no discernible increase of events from the 16th through mid-19th century, when debris-flow activity remained rather scarce in the investigated catchment area. from the reconstructed data and based on rcm simulations, there are also indications that, in a future greenhouse climate, debris-flow frequencies might even decrease in this torrent, given that mean and extreme precipitation events are projected to occur less frequently in summer and that wet spells will become more common in spring or fall. in contrast, strong but exceptionally extreme precipitation events in summer might trigger largermagnitude events than they do today. acknowledgment. this work has been undertaken partly in the context of the fp6 eu-project ensembles and considerably benefited from the fieldwork and analyses undertaken by d. conus, m. a. grichting and i. lie`vre.
Does heat and and salt transports affect climate?
heat and salt transports significantly influences the climate of the north atlantic and surrounding areas
Does SST change climate?
sst changes can impact even the global climate on interannual and (multi) decadal
Does AMOC explain changes in climate?
amoc have been implicated to explain some past abrupt climate
the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (amoc) with its associated heat and salt transports significantly influences the climate of the north atlantic and surrounding areas. many coupled climate modeling studies [e.g., delworth et al. 1993] suggest that changes in the amoc affect the sea surface temperature (sst) variability. through atmospheric interactions, these sst changes can impact even the global climate on interannual and (multi) decadal time scales [see hurrell et al. 2006, and references therein]. in addition, major changes in the amoc have been implicated to explain some past abrupt climate change events [e.g., broecker 2003]. motivated by its prominent role in
What does the baseline scenario assume?
we start with a baseline scenario that assumes farmers will continue to plant their current crops if climate remains unchanged
Which set of climate change scenarios was examined?
we examine a set of climate change scenarios predicted by atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (aogcm's
Which three A1 SRES climate models were reflected by the examined climate scenarios?
the climate scenarios reflect the a1 sres (special report on emissions scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change) scenarios from the following three models: the canadian climate center (ccc) scenario boer et al. 2000 ), centre for climate system research (ccsr) scenario emori et al. 1999 ), and the parallel climate model
in this section, we simulate the consequences of climate change on crop selection behaviors using the parameter estimates in the previous section. we start with a baseline scenario that assumes farmers will continue to plant their current crops if climate remains unchanged. that is, we do not model other possible reasons why crop choice might change over the next hundred years. we look at only the effects of climate change. we examine a set of climate change scenarios predicted by atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (aogcm's). the climate scenarios reflect the a1 sres (special report on emissions scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change) scenarios from the following three models: the canadian climate center (ccc) scenario boer et al. 2000 ), centre for climate system research (ccsr) scenario emori et al. 1999 ), and the parallel climate model
Name three multi-letter symbols used to denote quantities in algebraic equations used in this research.
nomenclature as a reviewer i must express distress over the use of multi-letter symbols (acronyms) such as gwp, rf, th to denote quantities in algebraic equations in the manuscript under review
What is the authoritative document published by the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics?
the authoritative document published by the international union of pure and applied physics, "symbols, units, nomenclature and fundamental constants in physics
What should symbols for physical quantities be used for?
symbols for physical quantities should be single letters of the latin or greek alphabet with or without modifying signs (subscripts, superscripts, primes, etc
nomenclature as a reviewer i must express distress over the use of multi-letter symbols (acronyms) such as gwp, rf, th to denote quantities in algebraic equations in the manuscript under review. this usage flies against long accepted practice in the scientific community. the authoritative document published by the international union of pure and applied physics, "symbols, units, nomenclature and fundamental constants in physics" (http://metrology.wordpress.com/measurementprocessindex/iupapredbook/index-iupap-red-book/) states: "symbols for physical quantities should be single letters of the latin or greek alphabet with or without modifying signs (subscripts, superscripts, primes, etc.). the two-letter symbols used to represent dimensionless combinations of physical quantities [e.g., reynolds number, re are an exception to this rule." this practice is a long established convention in physical science that leads to improved clarity and communication. as a reviewer i would encourage the authors to adhere to this convention (despite the widespread practice otherwise in the gwp community), and if they choose not to, i would encourage the editor to insist that they do so.
Using the assumption that communities with a more equal income and wealth distribution are more likely to have social networks to provide flood relief, we find that villages with higher risk exposure also have more unequal income distributions, suggesting that they have a lower provision of community level organization to cope with flooding. We therefore find, somewhat paradoxically, that the people that face the highest risk of flooding are the least well prepared, both in terms of household-level ex ante preparedness and communitylevel ex post flood relief.
using the assumption that communities with a more equal income and wealth distribution are more likely to have social networks to provide flood relief, we find that villages with higher risk exposure also have more unequal income distributions, suggesting that they have a lower provision of community level organization to cope with flooding. we therefore find, somewhat paradoxically, that the people that face the highest risk of flooding are the least well prepared, both in terms of household-level ex ante preparedness and communitylevel ex post flood relief
What are assumptions ?
using the assumption that communities with a more equal income and wealth distribution are more likely to have social networks to provide flood relief, we find that villages with higher risk exposure also have more unequal income distributions, suggesting that they have a lower provision of community level organization to cope with flooding. we therefore find, somewhat paradoxically, that the people that face the highest risk of flooding are the least well prepared, both in terms of household-level ex ante preparedness and communitylevel ex post flood relief
What is assumption?
using the assumption that communities with a more equal income and wealth distribution are more likely to have social networks to provide flood relief, we find that villages with higher risk exposure also have more unequal income distributions, suggesting that they have a lower provision of community level organization to cope with flooding. we therefore find, somewhat paradoxically, that the people that face the highest risk of flooding are the least well prepared, both in terms of household-level ex ante preparedness and communitylevel ex post flood relief
in this paper, we investigated the complex relationship between environmental risk, poverty and vulnerability in a concrete case study carried out in one of the poorest and most flood prone countries in the world, focusing on household and community vulnerability and adaptive coping mechanisms. building upon the growing theory and empirical evidence regarding these relationships, we produced our own simple analytical model and tested relationships between the model's core variables in (as far as possible) a systematic way, using data and conventional indicators from a large-scale survey of households in rural bangladesh. although a number of studies have been carried out in bangladesh looking at poverty and flood coping strategies, such a systematic examination of the concept of socio-economic vulnerability is currently lacking. the case study area is situated in one of the poorest and most flood-prone areas of bangladesh, making it an ideal case for further testing of the mentioned relationships. novel in our study is furthermore the explicit testing of the effectiveness of existing preventive and adaptive coping strategies in terms of their impact on flood damage costs. our results confirm the positive relationship between environmental risk, poverty and vulnerability. poorer segments of society live closer to the river, therefore face a higher risk of flooding and are thus more vulnerable, and we were able to show that actual inundation levels are indeed significantly higher for poorer households. at the same time, environmental risk exposure also goes hand in hand with income inequality and access to natural resources: the higher the exposure level, the higher the inequality and the less access a household has to land. inequality also results in higher flood damage, confirming the hypothesis found in the literature that an unequal income distribution contributes to socio-economic vulnerability. however, the relationship between poverty and damage costs (and hence vulnerability) appears to be more complex than the literature suggests. the poor suffer more in relative terms, but not in absolute terms. average damage costs in absolute terms are significantly higher for wealthier households. moreover, their coping capacity is as expected also greater than poorer households, reflected by the fact that the relative proportion of the flood damage costs in total household income is significantly lower for wealthier families. farmers and fish cultivators suffer most damage, both in absolute and relative terms. approximately one third of their annual household income is lost due to flooding. roy brouwer et al. 19 floodplain households that fully depend on natural resources for their livelihood (the poorer segments in society) suffer significantly less damage, but from our analysis we conclude that this does not exclude income diversification as an effective flood coping strategy. on the contrary, more income sources appear to result in lower average damage costs, suggesting that spreading the environmental risk across multiple economic activities pays off. however, we find that income diversification is primarily a strategy followed by wealthier families and communities living further away from the river. families living nearer to the river seem to have fewer opportunities to engage in multiple economic activities, which makes them more vulnerable to natural disasters, and may keep them trapped in a poverty cycle (see for example chambers, 1995). the latter conclusion cannot be further substantiated in this study as the study merely provides a snapshot of the current situation. a more detailed time series analysis is required to test the hypothesis that poorer segments in society depending on just one or two natural sources of income are trapped in a downward poverty spiral. a similar situation is observed for preventive measures. floodplain households taking preventive measures earn higher incomes and have significantly lower damage costs in absolute and relative terms. also the implementation of preventive measures is constrained by limited financial resources, although a substantial proportion of floodplain residents do not take any preventive measures because they believe that flooding is a natural process, which cannot be prevented. regarding the availability of ex post disaster relief, we used information from semistructured key informant interviews to assess the existence of social networks and institutional arrangements to support flood victims. it appears that the availability of such community level support is generally rather low, although some degree of flood relief exists in the form of loans to flood victims from family members, neighbours, rich members of the community and credit for food from local shops. using the assumption that communities with a more equal income and wealth distribution are more likely to have social networks to provide flood relief, we find that villages with higher risk exposure also have more unequal income distributions, suggesting that they have a lower provision of community level organization to cope with flooding. we therefore find, somewhat paradoxically, that the people that face the highest risk of flooding are the least well prepared, both in terms of household-level ex ante preparedness and communitylevel ex post flood relief. there is clearly a need for more government involvement to either provide further flood protection and flood relief directly, or to stimulate household and community level efforts to protect and support flood victims. moreover, policies that pursue income equality may also be effective in that they will have important economic benefits in terms of avoided damage costs. as a final methodological note we want to emphasize that the analysis presented in this paper is primarily based on observed associations and relationships, using linear correlations and non-parametric testing procedures. an important question remains how much the observed relationships actually tell us about underlying (non-linear) causal relationships as suggested for example by adger (1999), and in which direction these causal relationships act. we believe that a more extended deterministic model is needed to further test these underlying causal relationships and their direction in future research in this domain. socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk 20
Who can I ask for questions about Microscale Meteorology?
julie national center for atmospheric research
Who can I ask for questions about Agriculture?
richard department of agriculture and food western australia australia pinskwar
Who can I ask for questions about water?
james national institute of water and atmospheric research new zealand tubiello
pulwarty, roger noaa/cires/climate diagnostics center usa/trinidad and tobago raisanen, jouni university of helsinki finland renwick, james national institute of water and atmospheric research new zealand tubiello, francesco nicola columbia university usa/iiasa/italy wood, richard met office hadley centre uk zhao, zong-ci china meteorological administration china arblaster, julie national center for atmospheric research, usa and bureau of meteorology, australia betts, richard met office hadley centre uk dai, aiguo national center for atmospheric research usa milly, christopher us geological survey usa mortsch, linda environment canada canada nurse, leonard university of the west indies, cave hill campus barbados payne, richard department of agriculture and food western australia australia pinskwar, iwona polish academy of sciences poland wilbanks, tom oak ridge national laboratory usa
What is Janet Rudgeâ€™s specialty as the Energy Officer for Ealing Borough Council?
janet rudge is currently the energy officer for ealing borough council, specializing in programmes for the fuel poor
What job does Janet Rudge do at the University of East London?
since 1992 she has researched and taught environmental and energy studies at the university of east london and the low energy architecture research unit (learn) at london metropolitan university
What topic does Janet Rudge focus on in her work with the World Health Organization?
dr rudge is currently an invited lead expert on cold homes for a world health organization european project to assess the burden of disease of inadequate housing
janet rudge is currently the energy officer for ealing borough council, specializing in programmes for the fuel poor. she is a registered architect and has worked in both public and private offices. since 1992 she has researched and taught environmental and energy studies at the university of east london and the low energy architecture research unit (learn) at london metropolitan university. she has also worked helping to establish the network for comfort and energy use in buildings. her own research has concentrated on fuel poverty and health, with publications including papers in, for example, the international journal of biometeorology journal of public health and energy and buildings. she co-edited, with fergus nicol, cutting the cost of cold: affordable warmth for healthier homes a multidisciplinary reference source on the health impact of cold homes. dr rudge is currently an invited lead expert on cold homes for a world health organization european project to assess the burden of disease of inadequate housing.
What is the exact thermal reconfiguration quotient in the Subsaharan desert zone.above the tropic.of Cancer?
the profound impact of human introduced invasive species on indigenous biota, and the facilitation of establishment as a result of changing thermal conditions, has been well documented on the french subantarctic kerguelen islands (south indian ocean
Into which temperate environment would the synopsis of penguinic cold feet fly over "floopsie"?
 we conclude that the evidence assimilated from the sub-antarctic islands can be applied to more complex temperate continental systems as well as further developing international guidelines to minimise the impact of alien species
What more reasonable approach would allocate three flies in the Venn diagram of $0.10?
recent climatic trends of the antarctic region, and its potential influence on the establishment, distribution and abundance of alien insects, using as examples one fly and one beetle species
the suite of environments and anthropogenic modifications of sub-antarctic islands provide key opportunities to improve our understanding of the potential consequences of climate change and biological species invasions on terrestrial ecosystems. the profound impact of human introduced invasive species on indigenous biota, and the facilitation of establishment as a result of changing thermal conditions, has been well documented on the french subantarctic kerguelen islands (south indian ocean). the present study provides an overview of the vulnerability of sub-antarctic terrestrial communities with respect to two interacting factors, namely climate change and alien insects. we present datasets assimilated by our teams on the kerguelen islands since 1974, coupled with a review of the literature, to evaluate the mechanism and impact of biological invasions in this region. first, we consider recent climatic trends of the antarctic region, and its potential influence on the establishment, distribution and abundance of alien insects, using as examples one fly and one beetle species. second, we consider to what extent limited gene pools may restrict alien species' colonisations. finally, we consider the vulnerability of native communities to aliens using the examples of one beetle, one fly, and five aphid species taking into consideration their additional impact as plant virus vectors. we conclude that the evidence assimilated from the sub-antarctic islands can be applied to more complex temperate continental systems as well as further developing international guidelines to minimise the impact of alien species. keywords colonisation  endemic species  environmental variables  human impact  introduced species  island communities  species richness
What is the role that is strongly suggested to have the temperature?
temperature is imposing the selective pressure detected at this locus
What causes the exclusion of AGTC476?
excluding agtc476 reduced the overall differentiation between all sample comparisons except cfa vs. lfl
What is the effect of the exclusion of the locus AGTC476?
the exclusion of this locus has little effect on overall estimates of genetic diversity
(fig. 3c, table 2). whereas the evidence for selection at agtc476 between the hfl and cfa was not convincing (fig. 3b), the combining of hfl and cfa trees in the temperature-based comparison increased rather than decreased differentiation at this locus. when viewed together with the known importance of temperature as a selective agent over the studied cline, this strongly suggests that temperature is imposing the selective pressure detected at this locus. excluding agtc476 reduced the overall differentiation between all sample comparisons except cfa vs. lfl, where there was clear evidence that this locus is not under selection (table 2, fig. 3c). the exclusion of this locus has little effect on overall estimates of genetic diversity (table 1).
What type of residents have shown the highest degree of polarization?
the degree of polarization is highest among the residents who display the highest level of science literacy
What do people's beliefs about global warming have a connection with?
there is the same tight connection between how people identify themselves politically and their "beliefs" about global warming
indeed, by one measure of "who they are," the residents of these four counties look a lot like the united states as a whole. there is the same tight connection between how people identify themselves politically and their "beliefs" about global warming--and hence the same deep polarization on that issue. just as in the rest of the united states, moreover, the degree of polarization is highest among the residents who display the highest level of science literacy (figure 18). but like berkeley and cambridge--and unlike most other places in the united states--these four counties have formally adopted climate action plans or more precisely, they have each ratified a joint plan as members of the southeast florida regional climate change compact. unlike the largely hortatory declarations enacted by one or another university town, the compact's regional climate action plan sets out 110 substantive "action items" to be implemented over a five-year period.4
Do you think that this image explains the spatial geographies of climate change?
this image generally overlooks the spatial geographies of climate change. 'unique and threatened systems' are identified as glaciers and lakes, mountain, arctic, coral and wetland ecosystems, as well as small island states and indigenous communities
Do you belive that the focus on Small Island and indigenous societies is good to rank the uniqueness and value the complex role of social vulnerability and adaptation?
the focus only on small island and indigenous societies is a very narrow view of how we might rank and value the uniqueness and vulnerability of global cultures. the ipcc itself notes that the basis for the assessment of unequal impacts - the analysis of distributional impacts - is weak because of difficulties in model downscaling and the complex role of social vulnerability and adaptation
Do you agree with the final column?
the final column - concerned with extreme and irreversible effects - includes major disasters such as the collapse of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation (thc) or the west antarctic ice sheet (wais). in this case the full human geographical implications have not been analysed nor combined with the possibilities of parallel or countervailing discontinuities in the social system. the collapse of the thc and wais are portrayed on the map of tipping points fig. 2 that first emerged in work by held and schellnhuber as a way of communicating the risks of
this image generally overlooks the spatial geographies of climate change. 'unique and threatened systems' are identified as glaciers and lakes, mountain, arctic, coral and wetland ecosystems, as well as small island states and indigenous communities. colder and coastal ecosystems dominate the definition of unique and threatened although the scientific evidence points to considerable vulnerabilities in dryland and other tropical ecosystems. the focus only on small island and indigenous societies is a very narrow view of how we might rank and value the uniqueness and vulnerability of global cultures. the ipcc itself notes that the basis for the assessment of unequal impacts - the analysis of distributional impacts - is weak because of difficulties in model downscaling and the complex role of social vulnerability and adaptation. aggregate impacts are measured for the diagram in terms of financial impact, specifically gross domestic product (gdp) and are highly dependent on assumptions about valuation and discounting. alternative indicators such as millions of lives at risk must also take into account the uncertainties of vulnerability and adaptation. the final column - concerned with extreme and irreversible effects - includes major disasters such as the collapse of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation (thc) or the west antarctic ice sheet (wais). in this case the full human geographical implications have not been analysed nor combined with the possibilities of parallel or countervailing discontinuities in the social system. the collapse of the thc and wais are portrayed on the map of tipping points fig. 2 that first emerged in work by held and schellnhuber as a way of communicating the risks of
Does wealth mean better-off farmers are better adapted to current climate variability than poorer farmers?
although wealth determines the type of response action employed, it does not mean that better-off farmers are better adapted to current climate variability
What actions that respond to climate variability are low-cost management strategies employed widely by poorer farmers?
actions that respond to climate variability, such as staggering as a method of reducing risk and planting nitrogen-fixing crops, are low-cost management strategies employed widely by poorer farmers
Why are poor households more inclined to trust the forecast?
poor households are more inclined to trust the forecast, since they know how to implement risk reduction mechanisms if the forecast and actual rainfall differ
that is, although poorer farmers also pursue market-driven actions, better-off farmers can afford to do this more frequently since they have the resources to buy food for subsistence and have a greater likelihood of making an income selling marketable crops due to their access to transport. thus, although wealth determines the type of response action employed, it does not mean that better-off farmers are better adapted to current climate variability. on the contrary, actions that respond to climate variability, such as staggering as a method of reducing risk and planting nitrogen-fixing crops, are low-cost management strategies employed widely by poorer farmers. this shows that not all responses require money to implement. many actions use local resources or require a change in the way existing resources are used. poor households are more inclined to trust the forecast, since they know how to implement risk reduction mechanisms if the forecast and actual rainfall differ. in contrast, average and better-off households are more likely to suffer losses by trusting the forecast, because they tend not to employ as many safeguards. this in turn means that their trust in the forecast decreases even more because they suffer more losses (bharwani
What thibgs decrease countries from engaging in political violence?
as discussed above, we expect the probability of violent conflict to increase when economic conditions deteriorate due to climatic changes: individuals anticipate that their returns from labor diminish, and the ability of the government to provide goods and services for the people and to maintain order decays. this decreases the opportunity costs of engaging in political violence
Which states are more likely to have armed conflict related to climate?
we submit, however, that armed conflict is more likely to occur in states where existing institutions and mechanisms for conflict resolution cannot provide people with the assurance that climate-induced economic problems will be resolved without recourse to violence
How are weak countrues with fewer checks and balances affected?
conversely, societies with weak government institutions and few checks and balances are likely to be more prone to armed conflict. this implies that autocratic countries are more likely to experience intrastate
as discussed above, we expect the probability of violent conflict to increase when economic conditions deteriorate due to climatic changes: individuals anticipate that their returns from labor diminish, and the ability of the government to provide goods and services for the people and to maintain order decays. this decreases the opportunity costs of engaging in political violence. we submit, however, that armed conflict is more likely to occur in states where existing institutions and mechanisms for conflict resolution cannot provide people with the assurance that climate-induced economic problems will be resolved without recourse to violence. formal institutions that help enforce commitments intertemporally can mitigate commitment problems in situations in which each individual or group's effort to increase its own well-being reduces the well-being of others.5consequently we posit that democratic institutions that 'restrain the dark side of self-interest',6such as a constrained executive and separation of powers, a civil society, elections, an independent judiciary, as well as the rule of law, collectively work to reduce the risk of conflict. conversely, societies with weak government institutions and few checks and balances are likely to be more prone to armed conflict. this implies that autocratic countries are more likely to experience intrastate
What support the development of extremely deep convection?
heat and water vapor emissions from strong forest fires support the development of extremely deep convection
What happen when the heating of the surface and the initial buoyancy of the biomass burning plume occur?
the heating of the surface and the initial buoyancy of the biomass burning plume generate strong updrafts above fires that are responsible for convective transport of tracers in the free troposphere where inefficient removal processes and fast winds can disperse the smoke plume over long distances
What does (AOD) stands for?
aerosol optical depth
heat and water vapor emissions from strong forest fires support the development of extremely deep convection. the heating of the surface and the initial buoyancy of the biomass burning plume generate strong updrafts above fires that are responsible for convective transport of tracers in the free troposphere where inefficient removal processes and fast winds can disperse the smoke plume over long distances.pyroconvective events reaching stratospheric altitudes are frequent in the temperate and boreal forests of north america[35,42]and siberia,as well as in australia.even single events can double the zonally averaged aerosol optical depth (aod) in the lowermost stratosphere, with the smoke persisting at these altitudes for months.aircraft measurements have confirmed the presence of smoke and gases in the stratosphere at altitudes of 16 km and potential temperatures above 380 k,
Which year HBLF evaluate the effects of increases in temperature?
1995 evaluating the effects of increases in temperature on evapotranspiration at hbef
Which level a strong effect in plant water?
co2 levels that have a strong effect on plant water use efficiency
if climate change will be necessary to determine?
longer term monitoring will be necessary to determine if climate change will result in ''drier soils in a warmer world
climate and forest processes with modeling results produced by aber and others 1995 evaluating the effects of increases in temperature on evapotranspiration at hbef. the climate change relevance of our results is reduced, however, by the fact that we cannot account for predicted increases in atmospheric co2 levels that have a strong effect on plant water use efficiency. the aber and others 1995 modeling study suggested that a doubling of co2 yields a doubling in water use efficiency and compensates for the effects of up to a 6  c increase in temperature. longer term monitoring will be necessary to determine if climate change will result in ''drier soils in a warmer world.''
When is the reference period
1961 - 1990
What resolution is used for the gcm data
1 x 1deg
When was the mid-holocene
6,000 years ago
general circulation models are routinely tested for their realism through their hindcasting abilities. for paleoecological research, such hindcasts provide valuable climate information that we have also included. for paleoclimate, monthly data were obtained for the last glacial maximum (lgm, 21,000 years ago), mid-holocene (6,000 years ago) and last millennium (1,000 years ago) from four gcms of the cmip5. we took the averages of monthly climate projections over the first 50 years of each paleoclimatic period (essentially a point sample in a paleoclimatic context), which was the minimum period available among the four gcms. as gcm data are available at various spatial resolutions, ranging from 0.75 x 0.75deg through 2.85 x 2.85deg, we interpolated the gcm data to the resolution of 1 x 1deg using bilinear interpolation for simple integration into climatena. to implement the delta method just as described for overlaying the monthly historical anomalies, we also converted gcm projections to anomalies by subtracting the average of gcm projections for the 1961 - 1990 reference period.
What are two examples of "external" factors which can effect climate?
there are "external" factors which can effect climate, for example increasing greenhouse gases and explosive volcanic eruptions
Is it currently possible to predict explosive volcanic eruptions?
it is currently impossible to predict explosive volcanic eruptions
What result of explosive volcanic eruptions can be used to make predictions?
once they have occured their (cooling) effect on climate can be used to make predictions
there are "external" factors which can effect climate, for example increasing greenhouse gases and explosive volcanic eruptions. such changes in radiative forcing can be exploited to make predictions in climate. for example, the increase in greenhouse gases over the 20th century, and the relatively slow uptake of the corresponding excess heat by the ocean, means that we are already "committed" so some climate change (wetherald et al (2001)) and this can be used to constrain future climate forecasts (allen et al (2000)). while it is currently impossible to predict explosive volcanic eruptions, once they have occured their (cooling) effect on climate can be used to make predictions. the boundary value problem in climate prediction is discussed further in collins and allen (2002) and will be the subject of a future study.
Although possible, why do fires usually do not occur surrounding the savanna bioclimate zone?
surrounding the savanna bioclimate zone, there is a wider zone of potential forest flammability where fires are possible but usually do not occur because of the lack of ignition sources
What has resulted in the expansion of ignition sources?
however, the spread of human settlement, forest fragmentation, and logging has resulted in the expansion of ignition sources, with 28% of brazilian amazonia facing incipient fire pressure, now being within 10 km of an ignition source (31
we have argued that forests may have some resilience to intensification of the dry season. however, this may break down when the presence of fire is considered. a number of field studies have reported that seasonal tropical forests do become temporarily flammable, but the lack of natural ignition points in amazonia inhibits the amount of natural fire. fig. 3 plots the rainfall regime for a selection of studies that have demonstrated forest flammability. surrounding the savanna bioclimate zone, there is a wider zone of potential forest flammability where fires are possible but usually do not occur because of the lack of ignition sources. however, the spread of human settlement, forest fragmentation, and logging has resulted in the expansion of ignition sources, with 28% of brazilian amazonia facing incipient fire pressure, now being within 10 km of an ignition source (31). the potentially critical role of fire was apparent during recent droughts in amazonia, with extensive fires leaking from agricultural zones into flammable forests during the droughts of 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2007 (6, 32). over the last decade, a number of field studies have explored the changes in primary rainforests exposed to individual or repeated fire events (33, 34). most rainforest trees are poorly adapted to fire stress, and even low-intensity forest wildfires can lead to extensive
Explain the many dimensions of the school climate?
school climate is a broad, overarching construct consisting of multiple dimensions and is, as a result, measured in multiple ways. in the following sections, we describe how school climate has been measured in past research, and summarize the advantages and potential measurement and analytic issues associated with each method
Explain the school climate semi-test?
for studies that used an experimental (5 %) or quasi-experimental design (4 %), school climate was often an evaluation of an intervention ' s impact. about 15 of studies focused solely on validating and developing measures of school climate (bear et al. 2011 brand et al. 2003 ). approximately 28 of studies used qualitative research methods to study school climate
school climate is a broad, overarching construct consisting of multiple dimensions and is, as a result, measured in multiple ways. in the following sections, we describe how school climate has been measured in past research, and summarize the advantages and potential measurement and analytic issues associated with each method. among 297 empirical studies we reviewed, most studies were descriptive or correlational while a small portion was experimental or quasiexperimental. approximately 48 of studies used a correlational design to relate school climate to other variables. for studies that used an experimental (5 %) or quasi-experimental design (4 %), school climate was often an evaluation of an intervention ' s impact. about 15 of studies focused solely on validating and developing measures of school climate (bear et al. 2011 brand et al. 2003 ). approximately 28 of studies used qualitative research methods to study school climate.
What type of distinct communities does this study identify within the American public?
interpretive
What is an interpretive community?
a group of individuals that share mutually compatible risk perceptions, affective imagery, values, and sociodemographic characteristics
How are risk perceptions constructed?
socially
interpretive communities of climate change the above aggregate results, however, gloss over substantial variation in risk perceptions within the american public. in particular, this study identified several distinct "interpretive communities" within the american public. an interpretive community is defined as a group of individuals that share mutually compatible risk perceptions, affective imagery, values, and sociodemographic characteristics. risk perceptions are socially constructed, with different interpretive communities predisposed to attend to, fear and socially amplify some risks, while ignoring, discounting or attenuating others. for example, this study found one interpretive community that perceived climate change as a very low or non-existent danger - climate change "naysayers." this group, identified by their affective images, was subsequently found to be predominantly white, male, politically conservative, holding pro-individualism, pro-hierarchism and anti-egalitarian values, anti-environmental attitudes, distrustful of most institutions, highly religious, and to rely on radio as their main source of news (leiserowitz, 2003). this interpretive community was significantly different than all other respondents (excluding alarmists) on thirteen different risk perception variables (figure 4). further, the "naysayer" interpretive community articulated five distinct reasons why they doubted the reality of global climate change:
Why population in the south tend to be more vulnerable?
populations in the south tend to be more vulnerable not only because of individual poverty but also because of 'collective poverty' (e.g. inability of government to invest in flood defence
Why Cuba has been highly successful in risk reduction?
because of its investment in health care, rural infrastructure, and both national-level and locallevel disaster planning
at a crude level, there is a major distinction between the health burden of floods in the north and south, linked partly to the geography of hazard, but, crucially, also to capacities within society to protect population from flood hazard, reduce health risks of floods, and provide baseline health care services. populations in the south tend to be more vulnerable not only because of individual poverty but also because of 'collective poverty' (e.g. inability of government to invest in flood defence). a key difference lies in the accessibility, quality and capacity of health care and other lifesupporting services, which is relatively low in many countries of latin america, africa and asia. however, this gross north/south distinction hides important differences between regions and countries, both in levels of general development and health service provision, and specifically in their response to environmental hazards. a recent report on hurricane preparedness in cuba suggests that, despite relatively low percapita income, the country has been highly successful in risk reduction because of its investment in health care, rural infrastructure, and both national-level and locallevel disaster planning (thompson and gavira, 2004). rather than gross patterns emerging to contrast north and south, location-specific issues such as culture, topography and local issues may be just as prominent in shaping vulnerability, adaptation, and coping capacity characteristics. point 4
What is one reason as to why Greenpeace is so popular?
boettger claims that, 'one of the reasons for greenpeace's great popularity is that the organisation does provide material for the spectacular, not to say - by aesthetic standards where politics are involved - beautiful pictures' (boettger, 2001, p. 20
What must be done to a picture to bolster its persuasive power?
the persuasive power of current comparative photographs of melting glaciers as evidence of climate change gain part of their legitimacy through an aestheticisation of the landscape. aestheticising the landscape, arguably, renders its loss all the more shocking
Is Greenpeace government-funded?
greenpeace is funded solely by supporter subscriptions and donations, and does not accept funding from industry or government (greenpeace international, 2007a
global in nature, with 2.8 million supporters worldwide, greenpeace is funded solely by supporter subscriptions and donations, and does not accept funding from industry or government (greenpeace international, 2007a). its dependence upon public donations makes its media presence an important aspect of its environmental campaigning, as well as its public profile. boettger claims that, 'one of the reasons for greenpeace's great popularity is that the organisation does provide material for the spectacular, not to say - by aesthetic standards where politics are involved - beautiful pictures' (boettger, 2001, p. 20). the aesthetics of the image is thus integral to the production and successful reception of the photographs as representative of an environment in need of protection. such aesthetics corresponds to the discursive production of the landscape and environment since the enlightenment. as many cultural theorists have shown, images of the landscape have come to define what the environment is and how it is to be understood (urry, 1990; wilson, 1992; macnaughten and urry, 1998). where the visualisation of the environment can be understood as an epistemology of environmental discourse, greenpeace, i would argue, subscribes to and reinforces these representational conditions. yet this commitment to the beautiful and spectacular becomes problematic in the context of climate change communication. the persuasive power of current comparative photographs of melting glaciers as evidence of climate change gain part of their legitimacy through an aestheticisation of the landscape. aestheticising the landscape, arguably, renders its loss all the more shocking. 132 j. doyle
What is the main role of the post-treatment?
the main role of the post-treatment is to complete the removal of organic matter, as well as to remove constituents little affected by the anaerobic treatment, such as nutrients (n and p) and pathogenic organisms (viruses, bacteria, protozoans and helminths
Why is it usually necessary to use aerobic treatment to supplement the anaerobic stage?
in view of the limitations imposed by environmental legislation for the effluent bod concentration, or also when the receiving body has limited capacity for assimilating the effluent from the treatment plant (which is frequently the case), it is usually necessary to use aerobic treatment to supplement the anaerobic stage
Are there situations in which the combination of different anaerobic processes can meet less restrictive requirements regarding efficiency and concentration of the final effluent ?
however, there are situations in which the combination of different anaerobic processes can meet less restrictive requirements regarding efficiency and concentration of the final effluent (e.g. 80% and 60 mgbod/l, respectively). this is the case for systems consisting of a septic tank followed by an anaerobic filter (usually feasible for small populations, generally fewer than 1,000 inhabitants) or for a uasb reactor followed by an anaerobic filter
in spite of their great advantages, anaerobic reactors hardly produce effluents that comply with usual discharge standards established by environmental agencies. therefore, the effluents from anaerobic reactors usually require a post-treatment stepasameanstoadaptthetreatedeffluenttotherequirementsoftheenvironmental legislation and protect the receiving water bodies. the main role of the post-treatment is to complete the removal of organic matter, as well as to remove constituents little affected by the anaerobic treatment, such as nutrients (n and p) and pathogenic organisms (viruses, bacteria, protozoans and helminths). (a) limitations regarding organic matter limitations imposed by environmental agencies for bod are usually expressed in terms of effluent discharge standards and minimum removal efficiencies. these constraints are probably the cause that has mostly limited the use of anaerobic systems (without post-treatment) for sewage treatment (see typical values in table 29.1). in view of the limitations imposed by environmental legislation for the effluent bod concentration, or also when the receiving body has limited capacity for assimilating the effluent from the treatment plant (which is frequently the case), it is usually necessary to use aerobic treatment to supplement the anaerobic stage. however, there are situations in which the combination of different anaerobic processes can meet less restrictive requirements regarding efficiency and concentration of the final effluent (e.g. 80% and 60 mgbod/l, respectively). this is the case for systems consisting of a septic tank followed by an anaerobic filter (usually feasible for small populations, generally fewer than 1,000 inhabitants) or for a uasb reactor followed by an anaerobic filter. obviously, the application of these combined anaerobic systems is conditioned to an appropriate dilution capacity of the receiving body. in this sense, in situations in which the receiving body presents a good dilution capacity, the adoption of less restrictive discharge standards could enable the
What about the situation makes measuring attitudinal phenomena difficult due to social desirability bias?
social desirability is considered a potential source of bias in many self-report measures of attitudinal or subjective phenomena
What is the social desirability scale?
social desirability scale
Why does this study benefit from using a structural equation model?
using a sem approach, as recommended in the literature
following spector (2006), we considered each construct in terms of the potential sources of method variance that could artificially influence the results. social desirability is considered a potential source of bias in many self-report measures of attitudinal or subjective phenomena and hence could be a source of bias in self-ratings of leadership behavior (cf. podsakoff, mackenzie, lee, podsakoff, 2003). therefore, we checked whether social desirability was related to any of the transformational leadership factors, using a 10-item version of the social desirability scale (sds; crowne marlowe, 1960). we examined the influence of social desirability on the organizational culture-innovation relationship, using a sem approach, as recommended in the literature (podsakoff et al., 2003). specifically, the influence of social desirability was represented by factor loadings from the sds scale to each of the indicators of transformational leadership.
What are the potential for major shifts?
our results demonstrate the potential for major shifts in amphibian faunas over the coming century
Areas of high projected turnover?
areas of high projected turnover of species, areas rich in restricted-range species, and areas consistently projected to experience reductions in seasonal precipitation will likely be sites of some of the largest changes in amphibian fauna
What is the main point in this paragraph?
the projected climatic changes alone, however, do a poor job of explaining the patterns of high projected species turnover. a second factor that likely explains these patterns is the distribution of species' range boundaries
our results demonstrate the potential for major shifts in amphibian faunas over the coming century. more importantly, the three complementary assessments of potential vulnerability to climate change highlight several areas that are projected to experience large climatedriven changes. areas of high projected turnover of species, areas rich in restricted-range species, and areas consistently projected to experience reductions in seasonal precipitation will likely be sites of some of the largest changes in amphibian fauna. the high projected turnover in amphibian faunas in much of the andes, central america, and portions of the boreal forest is likely the result of a combination of factors. first, some of these areas are projected to experience relatively large climatic changes. for example, high northern latitudes are projected to experience the most warming, and central america and mexico are consistently projected to experience changes in precipitation. the projected climatic changes alone, however, do a poor job of explaining the patterns of high projected species turnover. a second factor that likely explains these patterns is the distribution of species' range boundaries. areas with a high density of range edges are more likely to experience high turnover than areas with relatively few species' range boundaries. mountainous regions have strong environmental gradients and consequently are likely to be the site of many range movements. other regions, such as the softwoods shield northern forests ecoregion, which stretches across much of north america between 50*and 60*north latitude, are at the
What has become a key part of the fabric of global environmental governance?
business has become a key part of the fabric of global environmental governance
What generally are willing to undertake limited measures consistent with a fragmented and weak policy regime?
businesses generally are willing to undertake limited measures consistent with a fragmented and weak policy regime
What act to create, shape and preserve that compromised regime?
the actions of businesses act to create, shape and preserve that compromised regime
business has become a key part of the fabric of global environmental governance, considered here as the network which orders and regulates economic activity and its impacts. we argue that businesses generally are willing to undertake limited measures consistent with a fragmented and weak policy regime. further, the actions of businesses act to create, shape and preserve that compromised regime. we examine three types of indicators of business responses in north america: ratings by external organizations, commitments regarding emissions, and joint political action. we find business response to be highly ambiguous, with energetic efforts yielding few results.  2007 elsevier ltd. all rights reserved. keywords: business strategy, climate change, governance, carbon trading business has become a key part of the fabric of global environmental governance levy, 2005 ). in their role as investors, polluters, innovators, experts, manufacturers, lobbyists, and employers, corporations are central players in environmental issues. the recognition by governments and ngos that large firms are not just polluters, but also possess the organizational, technological, and financial resources to address environmental problems, has stimulated consideration of ways to harness and direct these resources toward desirable goals. this acknowledgement of corporate potential has occurred, not entirely coincidentally, in a period of growing concern at a 'governance deficit' at the international level haas, 2004; newell and levy, 2006; slaughter, 2004 ). during the 1990s, much of the energy of north american business, particularly in sectors related to fossil fuels, was directed toward preventing an international regime to impose caps on emissions of greenhouse gasses (ghgs). indeed, industry groups such as the global climate coalition and the climate council played a major role in preventing the united states from joining the kyoto protocol levy and egan, 2003 ). more recently, many businesses have adopted a more constructive stance that acknowledges the reality of climate change and its responsibility for addressing the issue margolick and russell, 2004 ). increasingly, climate change is framed as an opportunity rather than a burden. a recent report from ceres, a coalition of investors, firms, and environmental organizations, typifies the emerging optimistic view:
what are some widespread patterns of climate reductionism as it is applied to different dimensions of the imagined future?
health, food production, biodiversity, tourism and recreation, human migration, violent conflict
What model prediction offers an explanation for the resurgence of neo-environmental determinism, or climate reductionism in the cases?
the hegemony of model predictions of the future andrew sluyter offers one explanation for this resurgence of neo-environmental determinism, or climate reductionism in the cases
inadvertently or not, such reductionist reasoning opens these analyses of climate impact to the charge of operating within neo-determinism explanatory frameworks. the two examples above are offered as archetypical illustrations of a widespread pattern of methodological climate reductionism as it is applied to many different dimensions of the imagined future: health, food production, biodiversity, tourism and recreation, human migration, violent conflict and so on. the precise numbers and fearful tones cited in the to this paper are the result of such reductionist reasoning and analysis. but given the demise of climate determinism described above, at least within large parts of the academy, how is it possible to have arrived back at an understanding of climate-society relationships which, i am suggesting, distorts and over-emphasises the causative role of climate in shaping the future prospects of society and the well-being of individuals? the hegemony of model predictions of the future andrew sluyter offers one explanation for this resurgence of neo-environmental determinism, or climate reductionism in the cases i am looking at. he suggests that the enlightenment dichotomy between nature and culture, so pervasive in western thought and
What limited understanding is another gap in the state-of-the-art knowledge on barriers to adaptation?
another gap in the state-of-the-art knowledge on barriers to adaptation is our limited understanding of the role of trade-offs in adaption decision making
What is likely reflected by trade-offs in planned adaptation?
trade-offs, especially in planned adaptation, are likely to reflect different policy interests (e.g. cost efficiency versus equitability and best-bet and win-win options), different time frames (immediate responses versus long-term sustainability), different sectors, distinct livelihood activities (e.g. smallholder farmers versus urban wage labor), and social groups (e.g. the elderly versus gender inequality
What is constituted by a failure to consider future uncertainties, to think about scale, and to ask wider questions and find sufficient information regarding impacts on different sectors of society?
a failure to consider future uncertainties, to think about scale, and to ask wider questions and find sufficient information regarding impacts on different sectors of society can in itself constitute a barrier to adaptation for the most vulnerable
thinking about trade-offs between barriers another gap in the state-of-the-art knowledge on barriers to adaptation is our limited understanding of the role of trade-offs in adaption decision making, and how choices of options is influenced by knowledge or lack thereof (e.g. severity of change, types of risks, uncertainty and lack of information), cognitive factors (preferences, aversion to certain options, priorities), institutional factors (who has a voice) and financial factors (costs). trade-offs, especially in planned adaptation, are likely to reflect different policy interests (e.g. cost efficiency versus equitability and best-bet and win-win options), different time frames (immediate responses versus long-term sustainability), different sectors, distinct livelihood activities (e.g. smallholder farmers versus urban wage labor), and social groups (e.g. the elderly versus gender inequality). we argue that such explicit or masked trade-offs inevitably favor some groups over others and may lead to the misdirection of adaptation support, barriers to some people and further marginalisation of the most vulnerable. ludi et al.2, for instance, argue that there is evidence of this in east africa. they discuss how short-term strategies, such as the provision of irrigation in semi-arid areas, are introduced with little effort to consider longer-term climate and socio-economic changes, possibly leading to maladaptation in the future and the favoring of more elite groups. a failure to consider future uncertainties, to think about scale, and to ask wider questions and find sufficient information regarding impacts on different sectors of society can in itself constitute a barrier to adaptation for the most vulnerable. future research is required to understand how barriers (e.g. financial) influence trade-offs/choices between different
What rangw average global sea level supposed to rise by 2100?
between 9 and 88 centimetres
What are two factors expected to cause problems for transportation systems in costal areas?
higher mean sea levels, coupled with high tides and storm surges
Could rising sea levels cause issues for aviation transport?
some aviation infrastructure is also vulnerable to sea level rise. of the nearly 1 400 certified or registered land-based airports and helipads in canada, 50 are situated at five metres above sea level or less
average global sea level is expected to rise by between 9 and 88 centimetres by the year 2100, with considerable regional variation (reference 15; see also 'coastal zone' chapter). higher mean sea levels, coupled with high tides and storm surges, are almost certain to cause problems for transportation systems in some coastal areas of the maritimes, quebec, southwestern british columbia and the northwest territories.(50)various inventories of vulnerable sites and structures have been completed for atlantic canada (e.g., reference 8). with even a half metre (50 centimetres) rise in sea level, many causeways and bridges, some marine facilities (e.g., ports, harbours) and municipal infrastructure buried beneath roads would be at risk of being inundated or damaged. for some communities, flooding could render inaccessible key evacuation routes, emergency services and hospitals.(51)the replacement value of the affected infrastructure has been estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars, unless appropriate adaptations are made over the coming decades. some aviation infrastructure is also vulnerable to sea level rise. of the nearly 1 400 certified or registered land-based airports and helipads in canada, 50 are situated at five metres above sea level or less.(52)the largest of these is vancouver international airport, which is currently protected by dykes due to its low elevation on the fraser delta. sea level rise could necessitate expanded protection or relocation of some of the affected facilities.
Overall value of approved projects in 2012?
two funds managed by the global environment facility
is slightly lower than in 2011 (8% reduction)?
saw a significant decline in the overall value of project approvals
Large changes on the individual fund level are due to replenishment timing
analyzing cumulative contributions to five
comparing the funds included in landscape 2012, the overall value of approved projects in 2012 is slightly lower than in 2011 (8% reduction). large changes on the individual fund level are due to replenishment timing and fund lifetimes rather than other specific drivers of inter-annual changes. in particular the amazon fund, and two funds managed by the global environment facility, the least developed countries fund and the special climate change fund,39 saw large increases while the scaling-up renewable energy program and clean technology fund (ctf) saw a significant decline in the overall value of project approvals between 2011 and 2012. analyzing cumulative contributions to five
Which depth does the Interfluve Kawakawa Tephra occur?
the interfluve kawakawa tephra occurs as dispersed glass grains showing a clear peak concentration, assumed to be the primary emplacement horizon, at about 0.8 m depth
When does the peak exhume until?
tephra peak is progressively exhumed until, at about one third the way down the slope
how much of the soil is involved with bioturbation
this pattern is consistent with a slope dependent transport process (soil creep) driven by bioturbation involving the upper 40-50 cm of soil
at the interfluve kawakawa tephra occurs as dispersed glass grains showing a clear peak concentration, assumed to be the primary emplacement horizon, at about 0.8 m depth. downslope, as curvature increases, the tephra peak is progressively exhumed until, at about one third the way down the slope it becomes completely dispersed in the top 40 cm (fig. 10). this pattern is consistent with a slope dependent transport process (soil creep) driven by bioturbation involving the upper 40-50 cm of soil. roering et al (2002) concluded the bioturbation mechanism was most likely tree-throw. slope dependent transport is modelled by an equation of the form: slope dependent transport is modelled by an equation of the form:
What Carvajal-Escobar, Quintero-Angel, and Garcia  Vargas estimated?
it has been estimated that if rural women had the same access to agricultural resources as men, yields could increase by 20 - 30% and the total number of hungry people around the world reduced by 12 - 17
For rural woman witch strategy could be addopted?
focusing information, resources, technologies and practices for climatesmart agriculture (csa) on women is an important strategy for catalysing adoption
What is important for teh  gender-appropriate targeting of CSA?
socio-economic and gender analysis
on the other hand, the increasing role that rural women are playing in smallholder agriculture provides an important opportunity to positively impact food production and security in a changing climate (carvajal-escobar, quintero-angel, garc i a-vargas, 2008 ). it has been estimated that if rural women had the same access to agricultural resources as men, yields could increase by 20 - 30% and the total number of hungry people around the world reduced by 12 - 17% (fao, 2011 ). thus, focusing information, resources, technologies and practices for climatesmart agriculture (csa) on women is an important strategy for catalysing adoption. socio-economic and gender analysis is an important step for gender-appropriate targeting of csa. it can be used to understand the socially differentiated roles, responsibilities, priorities and resources of producers at the community and household levels, providing the kind of information needed for policy and programme development that addresses the types of inequalities that prevent women ' s access and control of resources (fao, 2001 2003 kristjanson et al., 2014 meinzen-dick et al., 2012 quisumbing pandolfelli, 2010 ). when considering the in fl uence of gender on the ability of individuals and communities to adapt to the effects of a changing climate on their agricultural development, and to mitigate the causes of climate change,
What is is lacking among the institutions involved in the design of adaptation policies?
horizontal and vertical coordination is lacking among the institutions involved in the design of adaptation policies
What policy approach is needed for  adaptation policies and the adaptive management of forest
innovative policy approaches are needed to recognise both the need for adaptation policies that encourage the adaptive management of forest
Who should be included as a target for information dissemination and awareness raising?
the public should be included as a target for information dissemination and awareness raising
finally, and perhaps most important, horizontal and vertical coordination is lacking among the institutions involved in the design of adaptation policies, often disconnected from the local scale, where adaptation should take place (agrawal 2008; brockhaus and kambire forthcoming). failures and shortcomings in forest governance for sustainable forest management--observed in the past even without a now obvious driver like climate change and the resulting need for adaptation--are not yet considered in national adaptation policies, which may result in even higher vulnerability for forests and forest-dependent people and sectors. therefore, innovative policy approaches are needed to recognise both the need for adaptation policies that encourage the adaptive management of forest, and the need for policies that engage other sectors which benefit from forest ecosystem services in forest adaptation. policies promoting adaptation for forests national policies that aim to promote the adaptation of forests to climate change should follow multiple objectives. first, they should reduce non-climatic threats to forests; for example, land use change, fragmentation or degradation by unsustainable harvesting practices. removing maladaptation policies goes in that direction and aims at identifying other policy instruments that increase forest vulnerability; for example, incentives to biofuels or other crops competing with forest lands. second, policies should encourage large-scale decision making for the management of forest or more generally biodiversity. large landscape approaches are needed for designing and implementing forest adaptation measures (hansen et al. 2003). third, conservation policies must explicitly include climate change as a driver of change (hannah et al. 2002; killeen and solorzano 2008). for instance, the design of national systems of protected areas and biological corridors must consider the vulnerability of the protected ecosystem and the role of corridors for facilitating migration of species under scenarios of climate change (iucn 2003). fourth, policies should try to promote information sharing about forest adaptation and establish monitoring systems for the impact of climate change on forests. the public should be included as a target for information dissemination and awareness raising. fifth, forest policies must promote partnerships in the forestry sector in a broad sense (local forest stakeholders, forest private sector, forest governmental agencies, forest scientists from natural and social sciences,
What are the main factors that generally determine agriculture production?.
temperature, incoming solar radiation, water and nutrient availability are the main factors that generally determine agriculture production
On which the biological system are based?
biological systems are based primarily on photosynthesis, and thus dependent on incoming radiation. the potential for production determined by the radiation is greatly modified by temperature and rainfall
HOw the potential for production can be determined?
the potential for production determined by the radiation is greatly modified by temperature and rainfall. the main effect of temperature is to control the duration of the growing period (long and woodward, 1988
temperature, incoming solar radiation, water and nutrient availability are the main factors that generally determine agriculture production. biological systems are based primarily on photosynthesis, and thus dependent on incoming radiation. the potential for production determined by the radiation is greatly modified by temperature and rainfall. the main effect of temperature is to control the duration of the growing period (long and woodward, 1988). moreover, also other processes linked with the accumulation of dry matter (leaf area expansion, photosynthesis, respiration, evapotranspiration etc.) are affected by temperature. rainfall and soil water availability may affect the duration of growth through leaf area duration and the photosynthetic efficiency through stomatal closure. also animal behaviour and production are affected by these factors. these like man are homoeotherms, thus they have a comfort zone within which the climatic factors produce no stress on the metabolism. when ambient heating exceeds or is insufficient to maintain temperature within this zone, cold and heat stresses are produced. these stresses may be mediated by low temperatures, precipitation and high wind speeds, or by high temperatures and droughts, respectively. both stresses cause lower food and higher water intake, which results in lower general performance (fuquay, 1989). moreover climatic factors have indirect 10 effects on animal production (loss in weight and condition) via decreases in quality and quantity of forage. these general climatic constraints on agricultural production are modified by local climatic constraints. in northern countries the length of growing season, late spring and early autumn frost and solar radiation availability are typical climatic constraints. in these environments the duration of the growing season (frost or snow free period) limits the productivity of crops. for example in germany the growing season is one to three months longer than in scandinavian countries (mela, 1996). the short growing season is the main cause of the lower cereal grain yields in the nordic countries. moreover, night frosts in the late spring or early autumn increase the agricultural risk in these environments. the wet conditions along the atlantic coast and in the mountainous regions causing cold and rainy summers limit the availability of solar radiation and cause yield and quality losses in many arable crops. this is the main reason for the low cereal area on the british isles and alpine countries compared with other regions. in mediterranean countries cereal yields are limited by water availability, heat stress and short duration of the grain filling period. cereals are therefore less import in this region. permanent crops (olive, grapevine, fruit trees etc.) are important here. these crops are affected by extreme weather events (such as hail and storms) which can reduce or completely destroy yield. irrigation is important for crop production in many mediterranean countries due to high evapotranspiration and restricted rainfall. the continental climate of eastern europe (from central poland and eastwards) causing drier conditions and greater amplitude of the annual temperature cycle limits the range of crops that can be grown. the most productive regions in europe in terms of climate and soils are located in the great european plain stretching from southeast england through france, benelux and 11 germany into poland. there are additional lowland regions, e.g. hungarian plains, where equally favourable conditions are available. the range of european forests is limited primarily by climate, either through moisture availability or through temperature (both absolute amounts and seasonal distributions) (berninger, 1997). some forests (particularly in the north) are also nutrient-limited. the structure and composition of many forests is further influenced by the natural disturbance regime (fire, insects, wind-throw etc.). most european forests are managed for one or several purposes, such as timber production, water resources, or recreation. this management has reduced forest area or strongly modified forest structure in most of europe, and presently existing forests often consist of species that are different from those that would occur naturally. examining in details the influence of climate on european forests, the existing south-north climate gradient implies decreasing temperature and increasing humidity with decreasing water limitation and increasing temperature limitation for forests. whilst, on the west-east climate gradient, the maritime climate turns to the continental one with decreasing humidity and increasing water limitation for forests. in line with these gradients over europe, and as already reported previously, the forests many divided into boreal forests (boreal zone), atlantic forests (humid temperate forests), continental forests (dry temperate forests) and mediterranean forests. in the boreal forest, the growth and productivity are manly limited by winter temperatures that determine the length of the growing season through the duration of snow cover and soil frost. in atlantic forests strong winds play in determining a forest productivity through their effects on evapotranspiration and then water availability. in the southern parts of the atlantic forests, in the continental and mediterranean forests the summer precipitations are the main 12 constraint factor of forest growth and productivity through their role in determining the frequency of droughts.
What impacts could high sea level have?
along the north shore of prince edward island, the combined effects of rising sea level, decreased sea ice and increased wave energy would result in greatly enhanced coastal erosion
A doubling of present coastal erosion rates would lead to what?
a doubling of present coastal erosion rates would lead to a loss of 10% of current assessed value in the detailed study area in 20 years, and almost 50% in 100 years
What would the erosion affect?
such erosion would also affect saltwater marshes and coastal dunes, both of which are significant for the tourism industry
when high sea level is considered in combination with the impacts of more intense storm surges, significant economic impacts could result see box 1). along the north shore of prince edward island, the combined effects of rising sea level, decreased sea ice and increased wave energy would result in greatly enhanced coastal erosion. a doubling of present coastal erosion rates would lead to a loss of 10% of current assessed value in the detailed study area in 20 years, and almost 50% in 100 years.(19)such erosion would also affect saltwater marshes and coastal dunes, both of which are significant for the tourism industry.(19)
How long does it take for the Amazon ?
west antarctic ice sheet. the transition time scales estimated for these tipping elements vary from as little as 10 years for loss of summer sea ice in the arctic to 50 years for amazon and other forest die-off, to 300 years, at the low end, for melting of the greenland ice sheet, and 300 years as the worst-case scenario for the collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet (8, 9
How long does it take for non Amazon rainforest to die off?
west antarctic ice sheet. the transition time scales estimated for these tipping elements vary from as little as 10 years for loss of summer sea ice in the arctic to 50 years for amazon and other forest die-off, to 300 years, at the low end, for melting of the greenland ice sheet, and 300 years as the worst-case scenario for the collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet (8, 9
What can be released from the permafrost?
in a worst-case scenario, climate change could produce runaway feedbacks, such as methane release from permafrost (12
west antarctic ice sheet. the transition time scales estimated for these tipping elements vary from as little as 10 years for loss of summer sea ice in the arctic to 50 years for amazon and other forest die-off, to 300 years, at the low end, for melting of the greenland ice sheet, and 300 years as the worst-case scenario for the collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet (8, 9). even if the actual warming is less severe than estimated by ramanathan and feng (9), the probability that threshold temperatures will be reached for several of the identified tipping points is very significant if emission of ghgs continues along the current path. the potential consequences associated with these tipping points may be largely irreversible and unmanageable (10) and include widespread loss of biodiversity, meters of sea level rise, and famine, which could lead to political instability (9, 11). in a worst-case scenario, climate change could produce runaway feedbacks, such as methane release from permafrost (12).
With whom co-operation the work was performed?
the work was performed in co-operation with the institute for inland water management and waste water treatment (riza
For what reason the work was performed?
as the first stage of the development of a weather generator for the meuse basin under changed climatic conditions
Who provided the The station records and subbasin data?
the station records and subbasin data for the belgian part of the meuse basin were kindly provided by the royal meteorological institute of belgium. the french station data were made available by me'te'o france
the work was performed in co-operation with the institute for inland water management and waste water treatment (riza) as the first stage of the development of a weather generator for the meuse basin under changed climatic conditions. special thanks are due to marcel de wit for conducting and analyzing the hbv simulations and for sharing his expertise in numerous fruitful discussions. the station records and subbasin data for the belgian part of the meuse basin were kindly provided by the royal meteorological institute of belgium. the french station data were made available by me'te'o france. the racmo data were generously provided by bart van den hurk. last but not least the authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier version of the paper.
What causes the link between golbal warming and radiative response ?
the link between global warming and radiative response (the fundamental control on the stability of global climate) inherently depends on the geographic structure of warming
why does  regional feedbacks vary in magnitude ?
when regional feedbacks are defined in the conventional way (i.e., normalized with respect to t ), they will inevitably vary in magnitude as the geographic pattern of surface warming evolves, even without any change in the local physics linking the toa radiation and surface temperature
when is local feedbacks formulation is to be preferred ?
imposing a global view of climate sensitivity and feedbacks makes the climate response to forcing appear more complicated than it truly is. in many respects then, the local feedbacks formulation is to be preferred
thus, the link between global warming and radiative response (the fundamental control on the stability of global climate) inherently depends on the geographic structure of warming. when regional feedbacks are defined in the conventional way (i.e., normalized with respect to t ), they will inevitably vary in magnitude as the geographic pattern of surface warming evolves, even without any change in the local physics linking the toa radiation and surface temperature. imposing a global view of climate sensitivity and feedbacks makes the climate response to forcing appear more complicated than it truly is. in many respects then, the local feedbacks formulation is to be preferred.
what are the answer to the Global env. crisis?
contraction and convergence
the passage describes rich countries as what?
villains
the west must not betray which group of people?
the poor and future peoples
disaster strikes voice to local people cc already having devastating effects but can prevent the worst bringing cc to the present; narritivisation west must act, contraction and convergence the answer global env. crisis potential catastrophe don't need to damage western lifestyles urgency: irreversibility; we are own enemies; dramatisation precautionary principle; west must not betray the poor and future peoples climate models crisis world in crisis dangerous cc here increasing disaster trends authority to ngo reports need upheaval of lives and international systems rich countries are rich countries are villains, poor are powerless victims people in the west want action agency to governments close to point of no return; ecological debt; dramatisation need new economic models and reality of global stewardship to counter cc
Which shows the substantial increase in heat-related mortality?
in summary, most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality
What are the reviews identified by the study?
the studies identified by our review used many different climate models, emissions scenarios, time periods, temperature exposures and assumptions
What is difficult to standardized the result?
it is therefore difficult to compare the different studies using standardized results that are stratified by periods and locations
in summary, most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. also, most studies did not consider demographic changes that are expected to result in an aging population (who are more susceptible to heat), which could lead to an underestimation of future heat-related mortality. acclimatization could reduce future heat-related mortality, but it would not entirely eliminate the impacts of climate change on mortality. the studies identified by our review used many different climate models, emissions scenarios, time periods, temperature exposures and assumptions. it is therefore difficult to compare the different studies using standardized results that are stratified by periods and locations. it is also not possible to conduct a meta-analysis to create a combined estimate of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.
What is the key to confronting climate change?
the key to confronting climate change impacts is to ensure adequate adaptation capacity and effective adaptation responses
Please define Adaptation Capacity:
adaptation capacity is about empowering socio-economic systems to respond to climate change and it differs to the actual adaptation response
Which countries are likely to have much lower adaptation capacity?
for instance, poor countries are likely to have much lower adaptation capacity than rich countries greater adaptation capacity of rich countries, however, does not necessarily mean that their adaptation responses will be more effective
the key to confronting climate change impacts is to ensure adequate adaptation capacity and effective adaptation responses. these responses exist at: (1) an ecosystem and fish population level; (2) an individual, community and stake-holder level; and (3) at a decision-maker, regulator or planning level. adaptation capacity is about empowering socio-economic systems to respond to climate change and it differs to the actual adaptation response. for instance, poor countries are likely to have much lower adaptation capacity than rich countries greater adaptation capacity of rich countries, however, does not necessarily mean that their adaptation responses will be more effective. for example, rich countries could use their greater financial resources to provide subsidies to assist fishers to stay fishing if incomes decline due to climate change. a subsidy approach that 'locks in' existing and unsustainable practices, however, is mal-adaptive and would likely increase climate change vulnerabilities.
What kind of rainfall distribution does the climate diagram dictate?
the climate diagram, generated by the marksim software itself, shows a strongly uni-modal rainfall distribution with a peak in july, on average
What does the third record show in figure 3?
the third record in figure 3 shows the generated record for 2050 using the echam5 gcm for the a2 scenario
What variation is temperature is depicted in the climate diagram?
but the average temperature throughout the year is increased by about 2degc, it seems
an example of this process is shown in figure 3, for the grid cell at latitude 7.0 degn, longitude 37.0 dege in south-central ethiopia. the climate diagram, generated by the marksim software itself, shows a strongly uni-modal rainfall distribution with a peak in july, on average. the climate record is shown below the map, and this climate falls within a specific cluster in marksim, number 134. the second record in figure 3 shows the rotated climate record for this grid cell (note that the peak rainfall month in rotated phase space is the second month, rather than the seventh month as in the unrotated record). the third record in figure 3 shows the generated record for 2050 using the echam5 gcm for the a2 scenario. the rainfall amount and distribution is not projected to change much, but the average temperature throughout the year is increased by about 2degc, it seems. the future climate for 2050 for this grid cell now belongs to another marksim cluster, number 56.
What are the estimates for future scenarios?
there are two viewpoints on whether it is necessary to estimate probabilities for future scenarios, such as those describing future climate conditions. in one sense, it is reasonable to expect decisionmakers to want to know the relative likelihoods of posed scenarios before making planning decisions. however, such probability assignments can be misleading, and it is difficult to define the boundaries of the scenario and the range of future uncertainty (groves and lempert, 2007). lempert and others (2003) state that probabilities should be used with scenarios only if they contain solid information. estimating probabilities of future conditions is discussed in this section. water resources agencies have generally employed statistical models to estimate the likelihood of future hydrologic events
What is the opinion of hydrologists?
hydrologists recognize that there are multiple sources of uncertainty in these estimates, such as measurement error due to imperfections in how flow was measured and sample error from using a finite dataset for the statistical model. however, there are other sources of uncertainty that are much more difficult to quantify, such as model uncertainty. the underlying assumption behind using a statistical model may be wrong, with one such assumption being that the past data are stationary and representative of the future. in the absence of empirical data and statistical models, another approach is to estimate probabilities based on subjective judgment
there are two viewpoints on whether it is necessary to estimate probabilities for future scenarios, such as those describing future climate conditions. in one sense, it is reasonable to expect decisionmakers to want to know the relative likelihoods of posed scenarios before making planning decisions. however, such probability assignments can be misleading, and it is difficult to define the boundaries of the scenario and the range of future uncertainty (groves and lempert, 2007). lempert and others (2003) state that probabilities should be used with scenarios only if they contain solid information. estimating probabilities of future conditions is discussed in this section. water resources agencies have generally employed statistical models to estimate the likelihood of future hydrologic events. hydrologists recognize that there are multiple sources of uncertainty in these estimates, such as measurement error due to imperfections in how flow was measured and sample error from using a finite dataset for the statistical model. however, there are other sources of uncertainty that are much more difficult to quantify, such as model uncertainty. the underlying assumption behind using a statistical model may be wrong, with one such assumption being that the past data are stationary and representative of the future. in the absence of empirical data and statistical models, another approach is to estimate probabilities based on subjective judgment. the ipcc uses a subjective characterization of probability to assess the likelihood of future climate change. in guidance written for the ipcc, moss and schneider (2000) make the case for subjective judgment: "it is certainly true that 'science' itself strives for objective empirical information to test theory and models. but at the same time 'science for policy' must be recognized as a different enterprise than 'science' itself, since science for policy involves being responsive to policymakers' needs for expert judgment at a particular time, given the information currently available, even if those judgments involve a considerable degree of subjectivity" (moss and schneider, 2000).
What region did the study focus on?
this study focused on studying tree hydraulic characteristics of populations of douglas-fir and ponderosa pine endemic to the eastern or western sides of the cascade crest
What four populations did the study attempt to represent?
for the purpose of this study, a population refers to a species (i.e. douglas-fir or ponderosa pine) at a specific location (east or west
this study focused on studying tree hydraulic characteristics of populations of douglas-fir and ponderosa pine endemic to the eastern or western sides of the cascade crest. overall, the region is characterized by dry summers both west and east of the cascade crest with the bulk of precipitation occurring during the fall, winter and spring, and falling mostly as snow east of the crest. mean annual precipitation is about 280 mm across the three sites east of the cascade crest and 1250 mm across the two sites in western oregon (table 1). for the purpose of this study, a population refers to a species (i.e. douglas-fir or ponderosa pine) at a specific location (east or west). to represent each of the four populations, two unevenaged, naturally regenerated stands were selected at sites throughout oregon. from each stand, we selected 12 trees for sampling that had a breast-height (1.3 m) diameter of 20-40 cm, similar crown sizes and an overall healthy appearance (lacking visible damage, and/or insect or disease infestation). from each tree we then collected two 5-mm-diameter increment cores at breast height, to a depth that included the pith, to characterize individual tree growth history. cores were taken at 90deg angles to one another. however, if the tree had a visible lean to the trunk or was growing on a hill, cores were taken at a 90deg angle from the axis of lean and/or perpendicular to the slope of the hill to minimize possible inclusion of compression or opposite wood in the samples. for determination of water transport and storage properties we selected six trees from the twelve trees described above and, from each, took three 12-mm-diameter increment cores, again, sampling to avoid compression or opposite wood. immediately after we removed the cores from the trees we used a pencil to mark the heartwood/sapwood boundary (determined by a marked change in translucency) and quickly sealed the cores into two nested plastic bags and placed them in an ice-filled cooler for transport to the lab. 2 d. m. barnard et al
What is the area of research experience of Dr. Zebiak?
in ocean-atmosphere interaction, climate variability and climate prediction
Where did Dr Zebiak secure his PhD from?
at the massachusetts institute of technology
In which year did he join IRI?
1998
dr. zebiak's research experience is in ocean-atmosphere interaction, climate variability and climate prediction. he completed his ph.d. at the massachusetts institute of technology in 1984, and subsequently held positions ranging from postdoctoral research scientist through senior research scientist at the lamontdoherty earth observatory, before joining iri as director of modeling and prediction research in 1998. he was an author of the first dynamical model used to predict el nino successfully, first published in 1986. dr. zebiak has served on numerous national and international working groups and advisory committees, including: chair, international clivar working group on seasonal to interannual prediction; canadian climate research network advisory panel; u.s. national research council advisory panel for the toga program, committee on improving the effectiveness of u.s. climate modeling, and committee on strategic guidance for nsf's support of the atmospheric sciences. dr. zebiak has also served as associate editor of the journal of climate. he was named fellow of the american meteorological society in 2006.
What is the example of the growing city size for mitigation measures?
the city scale is increasingly being recognised for mitigation action (e.g. within the c40 large cities climate leadership group). attention is now also turning to consideration of the impacts on cities of climate change itself
What are the benefits of mitigation measures?
a principal benefit of grounding global climate change at the local scale is that it may make the associated risks, or opportunities, more relevant to many private and public agents who are charged with designing and implementing possible responses
State the mitigation of mitigation action?
for example, analysis at the city scale is likely to coincide more closely with local administrative boundaries and so facilitate decisions related to adaptation at an appropriate level of governance
the city scale is increasingly being recognised for mitigation action (e.g. within the c40 large cities climate leadership group). attention is now also turning to consideration of the impacts on cities of climate change itself. a principal benefit of grounding global climate change at the local scale is that it may make the associated risks, or opportunities, more relevant to many private and public agents who are charged with designing and implementing possible responses. for example, analysis at the city scale is likely to coincide more closely with local administrative boundaries and so facilitate decisions related to adaptation at an appropriate level of governance.
When did accounting and community research emerge
this strand of critical accountancy and society research emerged during the late 1970s and early 1980s (with for example, the foundation of the journal accounting, organisations and society in 1976
Define Key research themes
ey research themes include: ethnography of accounting practices; political economy of accounting (eg looking at how power is exercised, at conflicting political and economic interests); and organisational design and environments (eg the notion of rationality which is pervasive in accountancy, but in reality accounting practice is much closer to bricolage to 'organised anarchies
What are the Methods Miller's work?
miller's work is of particular relevance, outlining three ways of viewing accounting as a social and institutional practice: first, in seeing accounting as a technology a way of intervening, giving visibility to events and processes, and of governing people; second, focusing on the complex language and meanings of accountancy its rationales and third, examining how things are made knowledgeable in economic terms through accountancy, the calculative aspects of accountancy (miller 1994). it is striking how miller's framework has parallels with governmentality approaches - discussed below - in suggesting accounting governance and practice can best be understood through examining discourse and technologies; it also has links to the concept of epistemic communities, through highlighting the role of expertise and knowledge
this strand of critical accountancy and society research emerged during the late 1970s and early 1980s (with for example, the foundation of the journal accounting, organisations and society in 1976). key research themes include: ethnography of accounting practices; political economy of accounting (eg looking at how power is exercised, at conflicting political and economic interests); and organisational design and environments (eg the notion of rationality which is pervasive in accountancy, but in reality accounting practice is much closer to bricolage to 'organised anarchies') (hopwood and miller 1994; miller 1994). miller's work is of particular relevance, outlining three ways of viewing accounting as a social and institutional practice: first, in seeing accounting as a technology a way of intervening, giving visibility to events and processes, and of governing people; second, focusing on the complex language and meanings of accountancy its rationales and third, examining how things are made knowledgeable in economic terms through accountancy, the calculative aspects of accountancy (miller 1994). it is striking how miller's framework has parallels with governmentality approaches - discussed below - in suggesting accounting governance and practice can best be understood through examining discourse and technologies; it also has links to the concept of epistemic communities, through highlighting the role of expertise and knowledge.
The recent increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has also increased the possibility of what?
the recent increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has also raised the possibility of a melting of the greenland ice sheet, which may impact the future amoc, and thereby the climate
What is explored in the study shown in the paragraph?
in this study, the extent to which the mean climate influences the freshwater release linked to ice sheet melting in the na and the associated climatic response is explored
What is related to cooling in the Northern Hemisphere?
the cooling in the northern hemisphere is related to the sea ice cover response, which strongly depends on the responses of the atmospheric circulation, the local oceanic heat transport, and the density threshold of the oceanic convection sites
the response of climate to freshwater input in the north atlantic (na) has raised a lot of concern about the issue of climate stability since the discovery of abrupt coolings during the last glacial period. such coolings have usually been related to a weakening of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (amoc), probably associated with massive iceberg surges or meltwater pulses. additionally, the recent increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has also raised the possibility of a melting of the greenland ice sheet, which may impact the future amoc, and thereby the climate. in this study, the extent to which the mean climate influences the freshwater release linked to ice sheet melting in the na and the associated climatic response is explored. for this purpose the simulations of several climatic states (last interglacial, last glacial maximum, mid-holocene, preindustrial, and future (2 x co2) are considered, and the climatic response to a freshwater input computed interactively according to a surface heat flux budget over the ice sheets is analyzed. it is shown that the amoc response is not linear with the freshwater input and depends on the mean climate state. the climatic responses to these different amoc changes share qualitative similarities for the general picture, notably a cooling in the northern hemisphere and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (itcz) in the atlantic and across the panama isthmus. the cooling in the northern hemisphere is related to the sea ice cover response, which strongly depends on the responses of the atmospheric circulation, the local oceanic heat transport, and the density threshold of the oceanic convection sites. these feedbacks and the magnitude of temperature and precipitation changes outside the north atlantic depend on the mean climate.
Why is distinguishing among subclasses of proenvironmental behaviors important?
distinguishing among subclasses of proenvironmental behaviors is important in part not only because each can have different psychological and contextual determinants (see refs 44 and 28), but also because these behaviors vary widely in terms of their objective environmental impact (table 1
What actions have many existing studies focused on?
unfortunately, many existing studies have focused on actions which have relatively small environmental impacts, such as refusing plastic bags in retail stores.45such studies provide knowledge about the factors identified as important predictors of low-impact behaviors, but whether the same factors might also be useful for reducing high-impact behaviors is questionable
What does this evidence suggest?
evidence suggests that environmental attitudes, personal norms, and values tend to be related more to low-impact behaviors than to high-impact behaviors,46-48whereas high-impact behaviors, which tend to be psychologically important and entrenched in habit, are often primarily explained by contextual factors and are typically more difficult to change.49
distinguishing among subclasses of proenvironmental behaviors is important in part not only because each can have different psychological and contextual determinants (see refs 44 and 28), but also because these behaviors vary widely in terms of their objective environmental impact (table 1). unfortunately, many existing studies have focused on actions which have relatively small environmental impacts, such as refusing plastic bags in retail stores.45such studies provide knowledge about the factors identified as important predictors of low-impact behaviors, but whether the same factors might also be useful for reducing high-impact behaviors is questionable. evidence suggests that environmental attitudes, personal norms, and values tend to be related more to low-impact behaviors than to high-impact behaviors,46-48whereas high-impact behaviors, which tend to be psychologically important and entrenched in habit, are often primarily explained by contextual factors and are typically more difficult to change.49
What was the aim of  a number of researchers within the safety climate approach?
within the safety climate approach (see review by flin et al, 2000), a number of researchers have attempted to categorise safety climate variables with the aim of constructing models to explain the interactions among the variables
What type of modelling was used by the study by Fogarty et al. (2001) to investigated the influence of organisational, job, and individual variables on errors?
the study investigated the influence of organisational, job, and individual variables on errors using structural equation modelling (sem
What is one weakness of models based on the safety climate approach?
one weakness of models based on the safety climate approach is that they don't appear to draw upon explanatory accounts of behaviour developed within mainstream psychology, yet there are some points where connections can be made
models of unsafe behaviour within the safety climate approach (see review by flin et al, 2000), a number of researchers have attempted to categorise safety climate variables with the aim of constructing models to explain the interactions among the variables. the most common means of categorising variables is to organise them according to the level at which the variable exerts influence. that is, variables are classified at either the organisational, group, or individual level. for example, fogarty et al. (2001) developed a model to explain the causes of error in aviation maintenance. the study investigated the influence of organisational, job, and individual variables on errors using structural equation modelling (sem). the results suggested that the effect of organisational level factors on errors is mediated by individual level factors, such as health and stress. a similar study by lawton (1998) examined the causes of violations among railway shunters working in the united kingdom. although the outcome variable was different in each case (errors versus violations), both models showed individual level variables mediating the relationship between organisational factors and measures of unsafe behaviour. fogarty and neal (2002) combined these two variables in their work on the causes of both violations and errors in the construction industry. the authors hypothesised that safety climate variables would predict violations, whereas individual level variables would predict errors. the relations among the variables used by fogarty and neal are modelled in figure 1. as illustrated by the model, safety climate variables are seen as impacting directly on violations and the personal resources of employees. the employees' resources influence the psychological strain they feel, which is directly responsible for safety climate and the theory of planned behaviour 4 the numbers of errors they make. according to fogarty and neal, there is also a causal link between violations and errors. one weakness of models based on the safety climate approach is that they one weakness of models based on the safety climate approach is that they don't appear to draw upon explanatory accounts of behaviour developed within mainstream psychology, yet there are some points where connections can be made. ajzen's (1988) theory of planned behaviour (tpb) appears well-suited to the explanation of the link between climate and safety behaviours that are intentional, that is, violations. a short to this theory follows.
What indicate EBMs?
the simplest ebms indicate that the snowball state is a stable state with a finite attractor basin
Which systems are the suitable fluctuations in atmosphere?
the system could theoretically be forced into a snowball state through suitable fluctuations in atmosphere-ocean heat transports, albedo, or solar luminosity, no plausible mechanisms employing any of these means have come forth
What problem has centered on mechanism?
the initiation problem has centered on mechanisms that could reduce the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, primarily through drawdown of co2 or methane
the simplest ebms indicate that the snowball state is a stable state with a finite attractor basin. in fact, a stable snowball state exists even with modern co2 and a present-day value of the solar constant; gcms confirm that this is so (marotzke botzet 2007, voigt marotzke 2010). thus, without change of co2 or absorbed solar radiation, a snowball could be initiated if some transient event caused the ice margin to advance into the attractor basin of the snowball state. it is hard to think of a plausible mechanism that could do a job this big, however. usually, when one thinks of the snowball initiation problem, one considers forcing the system to fall into a snowball by changing the controlling parameters of the climate in such a way as to eliminate all stable nonsnowball states. although the system could theoretically be forced into a snowball state through suitable fluctuations in atmosphere-ocean heat transports, albedo, or solar luminosity, no plausible mechanisms employing any of these means have come forth. attention to the initiation problem has centered on mechanisms that could reduce the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, primarily through drawdown of co2 or methane.
What is a recognized fact about Africa?
it is a recognized fact that africa, because of widespread poverty and consequential limited adaptation and coping capabilities, is one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to the current impacts of climate variability and the projected impacts of climate change
What do the ACMAD recognize in their mission statement?
at the african centre of meteorological application for development (acmad), we recognize in our own mission statement that all these efforts must be made, with the goal of supporting sustainable development in line with national, regional, and continental strategies for poverty eradication, in the fields of agriculture, water resources, health, public safety, and renewable energy
What do the case studies presented demonstrate?
the innovative case studies presented here demonstrate that, used successfully, climate information can not only improve livelihoods and economies but even save lives
it is a recognized fact that africa, because of widespread poverty and consequential limited adaptation and coping capabilities, is one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to the current impacts of climate variability and the projected impacts of climate change. it is also a known fact that most of africa's disasters are caused at least in part by adverse weather. these disasters pose a serious threat to poverty reduction and sustainable development on the continent. in 2004, the heads of state and government of the african union reaffirmed their commitment to establishing and strengthening centres of excellence and networks dedicated to agricultural and environmental issues, and to establishing and enhancing regional early warning systems to combat natural disasters. in 2005, the gleneagles plan of action committed the g8 countries to support africa's efforts to establish or upgrade its climate observing systems, to fill meteorological data gaps, to expand its capacity for analyzing and interpreting such data, to develop decision support systems and tools for local, regional, and continental needs, and to strengthen the region's existing climate institutions. at the african centre of meteorological application for development (acmad), we recognize in our own mission statement that all these efforts must be made, with the goal of supporting sustainable development in line with national, regional, and continental strategies for poverty eradication, in the fields of agriculture, water resources, health, public safety, and renewable energy. the innovative case studies presented here demonstrate that, used successfully, climate information can not only improve livelihoods and economies but even save lives. together we can learn from these innovative practices, and in so doing help to create a better africa. abdoulaye kignaman-soro director general african centre of meteorological applications for development
What are we not aware of?
we are not aware of data showing interspecific or intraspecific variation in tolerance of high environmental temperature in large mammals
What considerable variation exists?
t appears that considerable variation exists in the thermal responses of endotherms above the tnz. again, this is necessary, but not sufficient, to argue that the responses are adaptive
What is an example?
for example, large mammals such as ungulates in desert environments might a priori be expected to exhibit more pronounced thermoregulatory responses to high temperatures simply because they have little choice but tolerate them, whereas small mammals can avoid them by using cool microclimates
arabian oryx oryx leucoryx (hetem et al. 2010), and 2.3 8 c in arabian sand gazelles gazella subgutturosa marica (ostrowski and williams 2006). however, we are not aware of data showing interspecific or intraspecific variation in tolerance of high environmental temperature in large mammals. it appears that considerable variation exists in the thermal responses of endotherms above the tnz. again, this is necessary, but not sufficient, to argue that the responses are adaptive. unfortunately, evidence is still too scarce to determine whether this variation occurs in predictable ways, as would be expected given the past selective pressures on a population or species, or if the variation is driven by phylogenetically-related differences in the cellular functioning among species, for example, in the composition of membranes and the expression of heat shock proteins (hazel 1995; feder and hofmann 1999). when considering the possibility that responses are adaptive, it is important to consider both large-scale climatic effects and local ecological effects. for example, large mammals such as ungulates in desert environments might a priori be expected to exhibit more pronounced thermoregulatory responses to high temperatures simply because they have little choice but tolerate them, whereas small mammals can avoid them by using cool microclimates.
What does strength out, or sout, measure?
the sensitivity of individual species to the loss of nodes in the network
What does a high sout imply?
a high sout implies that the target species is highly dependent on other species
What can be measured as the weighted sum of the proportion of the geographic distribution of species A that overlaps with B1..n?
strength out
the previous measures of degree (k) and strength (sin) provide indices allowing the quantification of the robustness of small sets of interacting species to the loss of highly connected species. a third measure, herein termed strength out (sout), measures the sensitivity of individual species to the loss of nodes in the network. strength out does not contribute to measuring network robustness; it measures how dependent a species might be, given the potential interactions with other species: a high sout implies that the target species is highly dependent on other species, while low sout implies the opposite. strength out can be measured as the weighted sum of the proportion of the geographic distribution of species a that overlaps with b1..n
According to the authors, are national or global agents more likely to be successful in this area?
for example, we believe that experience shows that national rather than global agents are more likely to be effective in this field. china, india and the usa in particular are cool about multilateral enterprises
What made the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Malaria and TB successful?
that said, the approach of the global fund to fight aids, malaria and tb is particularly relevant because it too was faced with a need to promote "blue skies" research efficiently. the way that it avoided the dilemma of 'winners' was by explicitly refusing to specify preferred research models
What process did the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Malaria and TB use to focus on the best projects?
the fund spent time and money on high - grade and intensive review processes through its technical review panels, worked with applicants and then invested in the successful projects with successive grants, thereby funding success and discontinuing failure
of course, we are also aware that suitable arrangements will then need to be set up to manage the revenue from an hypothecated carbon tax and to direct investment. there are innovative models to be studied. we do not offer the examples as a complete blue - print. for example, we believe that experience shows that national rather than global agents are more likely to be effective in this field. china, india and the usa in particular are cool about multilateral enterprises. that said, the approach of the global fund to fight aids, malaria and tb is particularly relevant because it too was faced with a need to promote "blue skies" research efficiently. the way that it avoided the dilemma of 'winners' was by explicitly refusing to specify preferred research models. instead it invited applications from people with medical models for new drugs, for new ideas in treatment regimes etc. the fund spent time and money on high - grade and intensive review processes through its technical review panels, worked with applicants and then invested in the successful projects with successive grants, thereby funding success and discontinuing failure.85other examples are the global alliance for vaccines and immunization (gavi), which recently announced the establishment of advanced market commitments to incentivise the pharmaceutical industry to
What are the energetic constraints on precipitation useful for?
energetic constraints on precipitation are useful for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to ongoing climate change, its response to possible geoengineering schemes, and the limits on precipitation in very warm climates of the past
Apart from the basic basic ideas and reviews, what else is examined?
we also examine the extent to which energetic constraints on precipitation may be viewed as radiative constraints and the extent to which they are confirmed by available observations
What are the challenges obtained?
challenges remain, including the need to better demonstrate the link between energetics and precipitation in observations and to better understand energetic constraints on precipitation at sub-global length scales
energetic constraints on precipitation are useful for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to ongoing climate change, its response to possible geoengineering schemes, and the limits on precipitation in very warm climates of the past. much recent progress has been made in quantifying the different forcings and feedbacks on precipitation and in understanding how the transient responses of precipitation and temperature might differ qualitatively. here, we introduce the basic ideas and review recent progress. we also examine the extent to which energetic constraints on precipitation may be viewed as radiative constraints and the extent to which they are confirmed by available observations. challenges remain, including the need to better demonstrate the link between energetics and precipitation in observations and to better understand energetic constraints on precipitation at sub-global length scales. keywords precipitation  global change  energetics 1 it is not surprising that energetics play an important role in determining global-mean precipitation given that surface evaporation is ultimately driven by solar radiation.1
Has Europe been a net exporter of naturalized plants?
in contrast to common knowledge, we show that the 'imperialist dogma,' stating that europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, when more naturalized plants were being imported to than exported from europe
What role does trade play in the spread of alien species?
trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide
How will climate change affect the spread of alien species?
the interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce them in tropical and (sub)tropical regions, yet not by enough to cancel out the trade-related increase
trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide. combining data on 60-year trends of bilateral trade, as well as on biodiversity and climate, we modeled the global spread of plant species among 147 countries. the model results were compared with a recently compiled unique global data set on numbers of naturalized alien vascular plant species representing the most comprehensive collection of naturalized plant distributions currently available. the model identifies major source regions, routes, and hot spots of plant invasions that agree well with observed naturalized plant numbers. in contrast to common knowledge, we show that the 'imperialist dogma,' stating that europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, when more naturalized plants were being imported to than exported from europe. our results highlight that the current distribution of naturalized plants is best predicted by socioeconomic activities 20 years ago. we took advantage of the observed time lag and used trade developments until recent times to predict naturalized plant trajectories for the next two decades. this shows that particularly strong increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions. the interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce them in tropical and (sub)tropical regions, yet not by enough to cancel out the trade-related increase.
What correlates with earlier leaf fall in Mediterranean ecosystems?
earlier leaf fall in mediterranean ecosystems is correlated with the onset of water deficit, both in evergreens and winter deciduous plants (escudero del arco, 1987
How does summer drought affect evergreen litter and leaf falls?
evergreens have higher annual litter falls in years of summer drought (pedersen bille-hansen, 1999) or have advanced leaf senescence and fall
What happens to stands of Pinus tadea in dry years?
for example, stands of pinus tadea have an earlier peak of needle fall in dry years (hennessey et al. 1992; dougherty et al. 1995
the importance of water stress in leaf senescence is evident in drought-deciduous species of tropical dry forests (murphy lugo, 1986), and water stress is also important for other leaf habits and biomes. earlier leaf fall in mediterranean ecosystems is correlated with the onset of water deficit, both in evergreens and winter deciduous plants (escudero del arco, 1987). evergreens have higher annual litter falls in years of summer drought (pedersen bille-hansen, 1999) or have advanced leaf senescence and fall. for example, stands of pinus tadea have an earlier peak of needle fall in dry years (hennessey et al. 1992; dougherty et al. 1995).
what chemical compound is thought to cause climate change
one needs to understand the forces that drive co2 emissions
what has supplanted glacial-interglacial dynamics
industrial operations were contributing to an increase of the co2 in the natural world
by how much has atmospheric co2 increased in the past 120 yrs
has increased 31 percent since preindustrial times
the advent of homo sapiens brought forth unprecedented social interactions with nature, which included the purposeful use of fire. the anthropogenic burning of plants and trees released stored solar energy into the atmosphere. the ability to control fire decreased human vulnerability to nature. of course, it was not until the rise of capitalism, and especially the development of industrial capital, that anthropogenic co2 emissions greatly expanded in scale, through the burning of coal and petroleum, exploiting the historic stock of energy that was stored deep in the earth and releasing it back into the atmosphere. as a result, the concentration of co2 in the atmosphere has increased dramatically, overwhelming the ability of natural sinks - which have also been disrupted by anthropogenic forces - to absorb the additional carbon and leading to climate change. to understand the rift in carbon metabolism, one needs to understand the forces that drive co2 emissions. it is now widely recognized that humans alter the global climate "by interference with the natural flows of energy through changes in atmospheric composition global changes in atmospheric composition occur from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide that results from the burning of fossil fuels and methane and nitrous oxide from multiple human activities."55much worse, "we have driven the earth system from the tightly bounded domain of glacial-interglacial dynamics," one that defined the earth system for over 400,000 years.56while not recognizing the potential dangers associated with increasing global temperatures, arrhenius in 1896 noted that industrial operations were contributing to an increase of the co2 in the natural world.57we know now that the quantity of co2 in the atmosphere "has increased 31 percent since preindustrial times" and that "half of the increase has been since 1965."58yet relatively little research has considered the
Define Mesozoic sediments?
in studies of mesozoic sediments, most work on rapid climate change has derived from high-resolution sampling of intervals where organic carbon contents are particularly high
With the generation of more high-resolution isotopic data, would more intervals of rapid climate change be found?
h. c. jenkyns. almost certainly, yes, although there seems to be a genetic connection between climate change and deposition of organic-rich sediments
Define stratigraphic sequences?
as more long stratigraphic sequences are investigated with high-resolution sampling it is likely that progressively more geologically rapid climatic events, involving abrupt negative shifts in carbonand oxygen-isotope ratios, will come to light
discussion g. p. weedon department of environment, geography and geology, university of luton, uk ). in studies of mesozoic sediments, most work on rapid climate change has derived from high-resolution sampling of intervals where organic carbon contents are particularly high. so, is our knowledge of rapid climate change affected by the fact that only certain intervals have been studied at high resolution? with the generation of more high-resolution isotopic data, would more intervals of rapid climate change be found? h. c. jenkyns. almost certainly, yes, although there seems to be a genetic connection between climate change and deposition of organic-rich sediments. as more long stratigraphic sequences are investigated with high-resolution sampling it is likely that progressively more geologically rapid climatic events, involving abrupt negative shifts in carbonand oxygen-isotope ratios, will come to light. once the most stratigraphically complete sequences have been identified for whatever geological interval in whatever part of the world, time (for very detailed sampling) and expense (for appropriate analytical work) are the principal limiting factors in data generation.
Explain climate impacts on HAB related disease?
there is less agreement on the extent of climate impacts on other marine hab-related diseases in the united states
What is the cause for amnesic shellfish poisoning?
creased abundances of pseudo-nitzschia species, which can cause amnesic shellfish poisoning, have been attributed to nutrient enrichment in the gulf of mexico
What is the cause for diarrhetic shellfish poisoning?
dinophysis species that can cause diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, data records are too short to evaluate potential relationships with climate in the united states,164, 186 but studies in sweden have found relationships with natural climate oscillations.187
there is less agreement on the extent of climate impacts on other marine hab-related diseases in the united states. increased abundances of pseudo-nitzschia species, which can cause amnesic shellfish poisoning, have been attributed to nutrient enrichment in the gulf of mexico.184 on the u.s. west coast, increased abundances of at least some species of pseudo-nitzschia occur during warm phases associated with el nino events.185 for dinophysis species that can cause diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, data records are too short to evaluate potential relationships with climate in the united states,164, 186 but studies in sweden have found relationships with natural climate oscillations.187
When was the study published?
published 1 february 2011 online
What was the purpose of the study?
this study assesses the accuracy of state-of-the-art regional climate models for agriculture applications in west africa
What conclusion was drawn from study?
this study confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for quantifying uncertainties for impact studies and also stresses the benefits of combining both regional and statistical downscaling techniques. finally, it indicates the urgent need to address the main uncertainties in atmospheric processes controlling the monsoon system and to contribute to the evaluation and improvement of climate and weather forecasting models in that respect
received 18 october 2010 accepted for publication 17 january 2011 published 1 february 2011 online at stacks.iop.org/erl/6/014008 this study assesses the accuracy of state-of-the-art regional climate models for agriculture applications in west africa. a set of nine regional configurations with eight regional models from the ensembles project is evaluated. although they are all based on similar large-scale conditions, the performances of regional models in reproducing the most crucial variables for crop production are extremely variable. this therefore leads to a large dispersion in crop yield prediction when using regional models in a climate/crop modelling system. this dispersion comes from the different physics in each regional model and also the choice of parametrizations for a single regional model. indeed, two configurations of the same regional model are sometimes more distinct than two different regional models. promising results are obtained when applying a bias correction technique to climate model outputs. simulated yields with bias corrected climate variables show much more realistic means and standard deviations. however, such a bias correction technique is not able to improve the reproduction of the year-to-year variations of simulated yields. this study confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for quantifying uncertainties for impact studies and also stresses the benefits of combining both regional and statistical downscaling techniques. finally, it indicates the urgent need to address the main uncertainties in atmospheric processes controlling the monsoon system and to contribute to the evaluation and improvement of climate and weather forecasting models in that respect.
How long it took for the intervention effects disappeared?
nevertheless, 10 months later almost all intervention effects disappeared
What does the disappearing of the intervention effects imply?
these results also imply that a high task-involving climate should be sustained longer, perhaps during all school years, in order to have positive long-term effects. it could be also argued that a high task-involving climate in just one lesson is not enough to sustain long-term effects
What does the gap between the knowledge now acquired in sport psychology and teachers' level of knowledge and ability to create a task-involving climate in school imply?
there is a gap between the knowledge now acquired in sport psychology and teachers' level of knowledge and ability to create a task-involving climate in school. this also implies that intervention plans concerning teachers' education should be developed
nevertheless, 10 months later almost all intervention effects disappeared. in other words, following the change of physical education teachers and the return to the typical physical education lesson, the gains in attitudes, cognitions and perceptions were largely lost. these results also imply that a high task-involving climate should be sustained longer, perhaps during all school years, in order to have positive long-term effects. it could be also argued that a high task-involving climate in just one lesson is not enough to sustain long-term effects. a high task-involving climate in all lessons is probably required in order to have strong effects on students' task orientation (ames, 1992). ten months after the intervention, the only existing difference referred to the perception of teacher's promotion of an ego-involving climate. students in the intervention groups still had lower scores than students in the control classes. the creation of a task-involving climate throughout the grades 1-12 is not an easy process. in a recent study (papaioannou kouli, 1999), 20 physical educators attended a short goal perspectives theory seminar and then they were asked to describe five ego-involving drills and five taskinvolving drills respectively. unfortunately, none of them was able to describe correctly a single task-involving activity. on the other hand, it was very easy to them to find ego-involving activities; that is, the activities that they used everyday in their classes. there is a gap between the knowledge now acquired in sport psychology and teachers' level of knowledge and ability to create a task-involving climate in school. this also implies that intervention plans concerning teachers' education should be developed. acknowledgements this study was supported by a grant from the greek ministry of education, center of educational research, to athanasios papaioannou. the study was conducted as a partial fulfilment for the requirements of a doctoral degree awarded to nikolaos digelidis. references
What does the welfare cost of a tipping point emerge from?
the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics
What has become one of the most prominent arguments in favor of stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions?
the possibility of irreversible climate tipping points
What do integrated climate-economy models provide?
formal frameworks for analyzing the diverse intertemporal tradeoffs at the heart of climate policy
we investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. the welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the system's response in each period. simulations with a recursive, numerical climate-economy model show that tipping possibilities raise the optimal carbon tax more strongly over time. the resulting policy paths ultimately lower optimal peak warming by up to 0.5*c. different types of post-tipping shifts in dynamics generate qualitatively different optimal pre-tipping policy paths. jel: q54, d90, h23 keywords: tipping point, threshold, regime shift, climate, integrated assessment, social cost of carbon, carbon tax the possibility of irreversible climate tipping points has become one of the most prominent arguments in favor of stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. several lines of evidence suggest that components of the earth system can shift abruptly in response to the ongoing ramp-up of greenhouse gases (alley et al., 2003; overpeck and cole, 2006; lenton et al., 2008). integrated climate-economy models provide formal frameworks for analyzing the diverse intertemporal tradeoffs at the heart of climate policy. for instance, the u.s. government used these models to estimate the social cost of carbon for cost-benefit analyses of legislation.
What is the beginning of new century?
now, a hundred years later, and at the beginning of a new century, heightening anxieties about future anthropogenic climate change are fuelling - and in turn being fuelled by a new variety of the determinist fallacy
what is "climate reductionism"?
i call this 'climate reductionism', a form of analysis and prediction in which climate is first extracted from the matrix of interdependencies which shape human life within the physical world
State any one example of claims in which emerge from this climate reductionist form of analysis?
every year climate change leaves over 300,000 people dead
now, a hundred years later, and at the beginning of a new century, heightening anxieties about future anthropogenic climate change are fuelling - and in turn being fuelled by a new variety of the determinist fallacy. although distinct from the politically and ethically discredited climate determinism epitomised by ellsworth huntington and his followers, climate has regained some of its former power for 'explaining' the performance of environments, peoples and societies. in seeking to predict a climate-shaped future, the complexity of interactions between climates, environments and societies is reduced and a new variant of climate determinism emerges. i call this 'climate reductionism', a form of analysis and prediction in which climate is first extracted from the matrix of interdependencies which shape human life within the physical world. once isolated, climate is then elevated to the role of dominant predictor variable. i argue in this paper that climate reductionism is a methodology that has become dominant in analyses of present and future environmental change - and that as a methodology it has deficiencies. this way of thinking and analysing finds expression in some of the balder (and bolder) claims made by scientists, analysts and commentators about the future impacts of anthropogenic climate change. here are some examples of claims in which emerge from this climate reductionist form of analysis: * every year climate change leaves over 300,000 people dead; * we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species ... will be 'committed to extinction'; * 185 million people in sub-saharan africa alone could die of disease directly attributable to climate change by the end of the century;
Why carbon markets necessary?
third if carbon markets necessarily from how emissions cuts are made, they also abstract from where they are made again in the cause of maximizing cost-effectiveness
Why the gap is to be damaging?
this gap is likely to be damaging to social equality, since the industries most firmly locked into fossil fuel exploitation or use, and most likely to be carbon pollution right buyers, tend to have a disproportionate adverse effect on poorer and disadvantaged communities
What does carbon trading requires?
carbon trading also requires downplaying the different ecological effects that pollution can have in different biomes. another way carbon trading encourages ignorance has to do with the way it discounts the enormous distances between, on the one hand, carbon-credit figures appearing on computer screens in the urban offices of carbon consultants, un officials, bankers, hedge fund managers and ministries and, on the other, the complex politics, biology and physics of hydroelectric dam or wind farm sites in less industrialized countries, together with the social and technological arenas in which flows of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse molecules are imagined and negotiated by scientists and technicians
third if carbon markets necessarily from how emissions cuts are made, they also abstract from where they are made again in the cause of maximizing cost-effectiveness. but this ion systematically obscures the significance of place. this gap is likely to be damaging to social equality, since the industries most firmly locked into fossil fuel exploitation or use, and most likely to be carbon pollution right buyers, tend to have a disproportionate adverse effect on poorer and disadvantaged communities. carbon trading also requires downplaying the different ecological effects that pollution can have in different biomes. another way carbon trading encourages ignorance has to do with the way it discounts the enormous distances between, on the one hand, carbon-credit figures appearing on computer screens in the urban offices of carbon consultants, un officials, bankers, hedge fund managers and ministries and, on the other, the complex politics, biology and physics of hydroelectric dam or wind farm sites in less industrialized countries, together with the social and technological arenas in which flows of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse molecules are imagined and negotiated by scientists and technicians. british buyers of offsets from a company that has contracted with an elite conservationist organization in rajasthan to provide biogas cooking stoves for rural villagers near a remote tiger reserve 7,000 kilometres away are unlikely ever to have the chance to verify what effects the project is having on local wood-gathering practices or class relations, much less its climatic effects (ghosh and kill, forthcoming).yet they are encouraged to believe that they can understand all factors relevant to the transaction. fourth in a classic instance of ignoring their own background assumptions, carbon trading proponents have overgeneralized the lessons of the sulphur dioxide trading system that has been in place in the us since the1990s the only pollution market to date that has not been an unambiguous failure, and the main model for the carbon market set up by the kyoto protocol of 1997. the us so2 market was made possible by the relative simplicity of the regulatory task (achieving modest numerical cuts in a single industrial pollutant emitted by a comparatively small group of sources), the possibility of establishing clear property rights in pollution dumps (which were handed over free to polluting corporations) and the recent invention of continuous emissions monitoring equipment capable to transmitting emissions data to washington, dc in near realtime. carbon traders are compelled to make the false assumption that similar property rights arrangements, measurement systems and enforcement will be available for global carbon trading. this assumption is demonstrably false on numerous grounds. first, the sulphur dioxide trading system was not complicated by the presence of offsets, or special pollution-saving projects designed to inject additional pollution rights into the market; most carbon markets are. this is important since, second, measurement of offsets is impossible even in principle (lohmann, 2001, 2005). third, even without taking offsets into consideration, the measurements necessary to support a credible carbon market are not being made, even in many technically advanced european countries. fourth, the highly centralized enforcement systems that carbon trading requires are absent in most countries of the world. fifth, the question of who owns the world's carbon dumps, and how they gain that ownership, is becoming increasingly contested in a way that ownership of sulphur dioxide dumps in the us was not. for instance, european governments'free gift of carbon pollution rights to their biggest industrial polluters under the european union emissions trading scheme has become an international scandal in view of the windfall profits being made by fossil fuel-fired power generators under the system. fifth most existing and contemplated carbon markets trade both in emissions allowances and in carbon credits produced by offset projects, which then are exchanged for each other. it is even written into the kyoto protocol that offsets are emissions reductions. however, this is false. offset projects involve planting trees, fertilizing oceans to stimulate carbon-gobbling algae, burning methane from landfills to generate electricity or setting up wind farms none of these things can be verified to be climatically equivalent to each other or to reducing one's fossil fuel
What does green indicate?
green indicates regions of agreement between vns and rain/snow
What does orange indicate?
orange indicates significant presence of vns but low rain/snowfall
What does the regions in white indicate
regions in white are where there was no data or the terrain is not noachian age
wordsworth et al: 3d model comparisons of early mars figure 14. comparison of the vn drainage density from hynek et al. [2010] with a) rainfall in the warm, wet scenario, b) snow accumulation in the cold, icy scenario with polar water sources and c) snow accumulation in the cold, icy scenario with low altitude water sources. green indicates regions of agreement between vns and rain/snow. orange indicates significant presence of vns but low rain/snowfall. magenta indicates significant rain/snow but few vns. gray indicates low vn density and low rain/snowfall. regions in white are where there was no data or the terrain is not noachian age.
Whom did Harriet Bulkeley approach to join her application to the Leverhulme Trust for support to fund a global research network?
harriet bulkeley approached colleagues with expertise in different areas of transnational climate change governance to join her application to the leverhulme trust for support to fund an international research network
What was the intended purpose of the funding support?
this funding support, which is gratefully acknowledged here, with its intended purpose of developing new research communities, fostering the exchange of knowledge and identifying emerging areas of research, provided the vehicle for fi fteen researchers from across europe and north america to bring together their research expertise through a series of workshops over the period 2008-2010
With whose support did the Leverhulme Transnational Climate Governance Network developed a database for different types of initiatives?
supported by a research assistant, tori milledge, the leverhulme transnational climate governance network also developed a database of different types of initiatives, initially designed as an object around which to create internal discussion and dialogue across the network
often, a book emerges with purpose, the carefully crafted output designed to relate the fi ndings of a project, to position an argument or to explore a set of ideas. this book arose in a more roundabout fashion. having worked on the emergence and development of transnational municipal networks in the climate change fi eld, harriet bulkeley approached colleagues with expertise in different areas of transnational climate change governance to join her application to the leverhulme trust for support to fund an international research network. this funding support, which is gratefully acknowledged here, with its intended purpose of developing new research communities, fostering the exchange of knowledge and identifying emerging areas of research, provided the vehicle for fi fteen researchers from across europe and north america to bring together their research expertise through a series of workshops over the period 2008-2010. supported by a research assistant, tori milledge, the leverhulme transnational climate governance network also developed a database of different types of initiatives, initially designed as an object around which to create internal discussion and dialogue across the network. as the network and our ideas developed, we found increasing value in bringing our work into dialogue and in the analysis of the database. what had originally been intended as a means of fostering knowledge exchange became a collective project of knowledge generation. our fi rst step towards collective writing - an endeavour which is not often practiced in the social sciences - took the form of an article describing and analysing the database (bulkeley et al. 2012 as part of a special issue that emerged from the fi nal workshop of the leverhulme network, held in durham in october 2010. it was through this process, of exchanging ideas, developing common understanding, producing new knowledge, sharing this with peer communities and undertaking collective writing, that the idea of translating the leverhulme transnational climate governance network into a book crept up on us. not all the colleagues involved in the initial network or writing project followed this path, as other projects and interests came along. we are especially grateful to tori milledge for her invaluable work in developing the database and keeping us organised in the many and varied locations
What are completly frozen and support additional state?
open water can also, under many circumstances, support an additional state in which the oceans are completely frozen over
what are consider reflective?
ice and snow
How are radically different states impacted?
the snowball bifurcation involves transitions between radically different states, and it is therefore natural to suppose that it plays a role in accounting for why the neoproterozoic glacial/interglacial transitions
because ice and snow are so reflective, the solar luminosity and atmospheric composition conditions that can maintain a climate state with substantial areas of open water can also, under many circumstances, support an additional state in which the oceans are completely frozen over. the frozen ocean reflects enough sunlight to keep the planet frozen if it somehow gets into that state. multiple equilibria are common in nonlinear systems, and when they exist, new equilibria can appear or disappear discontinuously as a control parameter (e.g., atmospheric co2) is varied continuously. the term bifurcation refers to the appearance and disappearance of states, and the disappearance of a state results in the system discontinuously switching to an alternate state as the control parameter is continuously varied. a related phenomenon is hysteresis, in which changing the control parameter and then returning it to its original value leaves the system in a state different from its original one. the snowball bifurcation involves transitions between radically different states, and it is therefore natural to suppose that it plays a role in accounting for why the neoproterozoic glacial/interglacial transitions are so different from the gentler ones that prevailed during the phanerozoic. the earth system admits of other bifurcations, including some that involve transitions between alternate states with substantial open water, but none that have come to light so far offer the same opportunities as does the snowball bifurcation when it comes to accounting for neoproterozoic weirdness.
Why is the economic preference approach less useful for understanding the relationship between people's underlying values and issues such as climate change?
it avoids the theoretical question of why things should be as they are for people beyond the operation of individual or collective choices
What does the remainder of the paper do with the economic notion of value?
in the remainder of the paper, therefore, we exclude this economic notion of value from further discussion and analysis
For many issues concerning the environment, what has a series of fundamental objections have been raised to?
for many issues concerning the environment a series of fundamental objections have been raised to this market-based approach to measuring values
for many issues concerning the environment a series of fundamental objections have been raised to this market-based approach to measuring values,20-22and while the economic preference approach is undoubtedly useful for informing some difficult health and environmental policy decisions,23it avoids the theoretical question of why things should be as they are for people beyond the operation of individual or collective choices, making it less useful for understanding the relationship between people's underlying values and issues such as climate change. in the remainder of the paper, therefore, we exclude this economic notion of value from further discussion and analysis. the first attempt to systematically define and measure values was the seminal work of rokeach,24,25
How many pages was the complaint against the Scottish Parliament recieved by the European Commission?
in may 2003 the european commission received a 20 page complaint about the scottish parliament building
What 3 reasons were the main argument which were posed in the complaint?
suggesting that there were breaches in eu regulations on the letting of contracts and secrecy and political bias over the selection of the site
What was not a core requirement that was judged on?
technical competence to evaluate the performance of the buildings was obviously not a core requirement of the judging panel
many have questioned the role of the ' design competition ' in these overspends. for example, in may 2003 the european commission received a 20 page complaint about the scottish parliament building claiming that the competition that was won by miralles disadvantaged some entrants unlawfully; so suggesting that there were breaches in eu regulations on the letting of contracts and secrecy and political bias over the selection of the site. 21 some believe that it was solely on the preference of the then scottish leader, the late donald dewar, that the project was given to the late enric miralles. what we do have is a system in which the judges of fashionable competitions often include many fashionable architects whose life's work has been devoted to a particular type of prestige architecture. reflections of their own style convictions become apparent in their choices of competition winners, setting a benchmark standards of what are ' architectural masterpieces ' typically, the greater the ' icon ' the greater its environmental impact. issues of environmental performance rarely figure in the requirements of such competitions and too often the resulting buildings, subsequently evaluated for their performance after construction, prove to be ' nightmare ' buildings. in october 2003 the laban dance centre in deptford, southeast london, won the ps 20 000 stirling prize for architecture. the judges were julian barnes, novelist, justine frischmass, singer from the band elastica, and others. technical competence to evaluate the performance of the buildings was obviously not a core requirement of the judging panel. designed by the swiss team of hertzog and de meuron, it was a popular win. the sealed-envelope, fully air-conditioned building on a waterside site could easily, and very pleasantly, have been naturally ventilated, in parts at least. no consideration of its environmental performance was made in the judging and the current and long-term running costs of the building were never discussed by the press or the judges of the competition. 22
What often play a more direct role in short-term moves rather than long-term ones?
environmental conditions
What can shortterm migration develop into, if environment changes render home unlivable?
a pattern of creeping onward movement
What did Robert Ford note about the issues of environmental changes in Africa?
some major movements of people
studies in other regions support this finding, and suggest that environmental conditions often play a more direct role in short-term moves rather than long-term ones.73 and yet, if environmental changes render "home" unlivable, shortterm migration can develop into a pattern of creeping onward movement. robert ford of the centre for gis training and remote sensing, national university of rwanda noted, " those of us living with these issues here in africa are already seeing some major movements of people. in many parts of africa, people living on the margin seem to quickly pick up signals that indicate whether on balance life is better by going to the city or returning to the land. that this much ferment is happening now, before climate change really hits, tells me that we had better get prepared."74
Is there a single, conventionally accepted definition of a sampling unit in marine benthic research? No
there is no single, conventionally accepted definition of a sampling unit in marine benthos research
What happens in some cases? In some cases, a sampling unit is a single quadrant
in some cases, a sampling unit is a single quadrat, core or grab, each of which has clearly defined spatial limits; in others, it is a haul or trawl, which is less clearly defined spatially
What is the only real aspect of uniformity? is that, ideally, the replicates of the sampling unit should be randomly distributed throughout the sampling area
the only real aspect of uniformity is that, ideally, replicates of the sampling unit should be distributed randomly throughout the sampling area (sampling universe), if that is logistically feasible
there is no single, conventionally accepted definition of a sampling unit in marine benthos research. in some cases, a sampling unit is a single quadrat, core or grab, each of which has clearly defined spatial limits; in others, it is a haul or trawl, which is less clearly defined spatially. the only real aspect of uniformity is that, ideally, replicates of the sampling unit should be distributed randomly throughout the sampling area (sampling universe), if that is logistically feasible. randomisation is a critical requirement that allows sample statistics to be representative in terms of the actual community characteristics present and that minimises bias. community structure on ocean-exposed sandy beaches is spatially highly variable in two dimensions: along the beach (parallel to the shoreline) and across the beachface (from the dunes to the swash). at local scales, this spatial variation is most pronounced across the environmental gradient from the dunes to the swash, but is often less predictable along the shore. to quantify sources of variability in community descriptors along environmental axes, other disciplines often use stratified-random sampling designs. this approach is, however, often considered impractical on beaches because across-shore strata can usually not be readily defined a priori. instead, sandy beach ecologists have traditionally used an alternative strategy by taking a sequence of samples arranged at uniform intervals along a line running parallel to the acrossshore gradient. this design covers the entire intertidal. such designs are described in the statistical literature as
explain about  local fisher folk?
thus local fisher folk in the regions around the plantations in brazil are poverty-stricken and devastated due to the pollution caused by the over-use of pesticides and herbicides, which contaminates rivers and water sources and kills fish. in some cases
Why water in streams and rivers has entirely dried up?
in some cases, the water in streams and rivers has entirely dried up because the non-indigenous eucalyptus is a thirsty tree
On whom's assistance plantation be expanded?
with the world bank's assistance, this plantation will now expand by 23,400 hectares
similar disregard exists for the natural environment. thus local fisher folk in the regions around the plantations in brazil are poverty-stricken and devastated due to the pollution caused by the over-use of pesticides and herbicides, which contaminates rivers and water sources and kills fish. in some cases, the water in streams and rivers has entirely dried up because the non-indigenous eucalyptus is a thirsty tree. with the world bank's assistance, this plantation will now expand by 23,400 hectares. this is a disaster for local agriculture and people dependent on water sources for subsistence. the ruination caused by the trafficking in pollution credits serves only to place the cloak of ecological respectability over local and global unequal power relations.
Analysing the advantages and disadvantages of different targets suggests that the range should span what?
analysing the advantages and disadvantages of different targets suggests that the range should span 450 to 550 ppm co2e
In achieving a target within this range, an early commitment gives us the time to do what?
in achieving a target within this range, an early commitment gives us the time to take measured action
Delay will be costly, creating a need for faster and deeper what in the future?
delay will be costly, creating a need for faster and deeper emission reductions in the future
analysing the advantages and disadvantages of different targets suggests that the range should span 450 to 550 ppm co2e. in achieving a target within this range, an early commitment gives us the time to take measured action. delay will be costly, creating a need for faster and deeper emission reductions in the future. as argued throughout this article, strong and urgent action is also likely to help reduce the cost of new, low-emission technologies more quickly, as there is substantial empirical evidence to show that deployment at scale triggers learning and economies of scale (iea, 2000).20 furthermore, timely agreement on a long-run target range can boost the credibility of climate-change policy, stimulating even more investment in low-emissions techniques and technologies.
Mention two watersheds were crossed?
two watersheds were crossed during the last months of 2009, one political and one scientific
What was the accord emerged?
the accord which emerged from that meeting holds an uncertain status and it is not clear what the commitments under it might signify. not only had no agreements of any consequence been reached, but the very process of multilateral diplomacy through large set - piece conferences had been called into question. so too was the leading role in global climate policy previously assumed by europe. china, india, brazil and south africa in particular took initiative and expressed different views from those of the previous ruling consensus
Explain second watershed?
the second watershed is to be found within the science of climate change. it was crossed on 17thnovember. the climate science community has experienced an accelerated erosion of public trust following the posting on that date of more than a 1,000 emails from the university of east anglia climatic research unit
one year ago, few would have guessed that by the spring of 2010 climate policy would be in such public disarray. two watersheds were crossed during the last months of 2009, one political and one scientific. the narratives and assumptions upon which major organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd) governments had relied until that moment in shaping and pushing international climate policy towards becoming global climate policy have been undermined. the course that climate policy has been pursuing for more than a decade is no longer sustainable - climate policy must find a new way forward. and that presents us with an immense opportunity to set climate policy free to fly at last. the principal motivation and purpose of this paper is to explain and to advance this opportunity. the first watershed is to be found within intergovernmental and international diplomacy. it was crossed on 18thdecember, a day which marked the confusing and disjointed ending to the climate conference in copenhagen. the accord which emerged from that meeting holds an uncertain status and it is not clear what the commitments under it might signify. not only had no agreements of any consequence been reached, but the very process of multilateral diplomacy through large set - piece conferences had been called into question. so too was the leading role in global climate policy previously assumed by europe. china, india, brazil and south africa in particular took initiative and expressed different views from those of the previous ruling consensus.1yvo de boer, the long - serving chairman of the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc), who had guided the process through meeting after increasingly inconclusive meeting in recent years, has since announced his resignation and future plans to work in the private sector. the second watershed is to be found within the science of climate change. it was crossed on 17thnovember. the climate science community has experienced an accelerated erosion of public trust following the posting on that date of more than a 1,000 emails from the university of east anglia climatic research unit.2these emails, whose authenticity is not denied, suggested that scientists may have been acting outside publicly understood norms of science in their efforts to bolster their own views and to discredit the views of those with whom they disagreed.3not long after this, and partly as a consequence of the questions of trust thus raised, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), which many governments had represented to their subjects or citizens as an impeccable "gold standard" validating their policies, also came under increased (and continuing) scrutiny as a consequence of errors and sloppiness, many of longer standing, but highlighted specifically in its 2007 fourth assessment report. universities, governments and the united nations are all now conducting inquiries into many aspects of climate science and the conduct of climate scientists and
Which authors are mentioned in the article as the most important for the discussion and construction of the same?
foremost of these are greg johnson, ron neilson, phil pasteris, kelly redmond, and george taylor
Which authors helped to produce / write?
matthew doggett, wayne gibson, mike halbleib, eileen kaspar, and joseph smith at the prism group
Who suggested creating this article?
finally, i would like to thank andrew comrie, who first suggested i write this paper and provided crucial feedback during the manuscript preparation process
the ideas and opinions in this paper, while expressed as my own, have been influenced greatly by many stimulating discussions over the years with knowledgeable people who recognize the importance of spatial climate data sets, and therefore share a commitment to excellence in their creation. foremost of these are greg johnson, ron neilson, phil pasteris, kelly redmond, and george taylor, and their contributions are gratefully recognized. producing spatial climate data sets is a group effort, and in my case is made possible only through the unique talents and dedicated service of matthew doggett, wayne gibson, mike halbleib, eileen kaspar, and joseph smith at the prism group. finally, i would like to thank andrew comrie, who first suggested i write this paper and provided crucial feedback during the manuscript preparation process, and cort willmott and two anonymous referees, who provided very thoughtful reviews that improved the manuscript appreciably.
What could generate patterns of variation in CHAR time series?
the possibility always exists that changes in sedimentation rate alone, and not charcoal production and deposition, could generate patterns of variation in char time series (clark et al ., 1996b
What was done to test the mentioned possibilitly?
to test for this possibility, we examined the age versus depth curves (age model), sedimentation rates, charcoal concentration and influx data for each site, as well as char, bchar, peaks and fire-episode frequency data
Which components were standardized in order to facilitate comparisons?
the bin-width used to interpolate concentration values into equally spaced time intervals was standardized to 10 years. similarly, the background-smoothing window-width used to identify long-term trends in the interpolated char data was standardized to 500 years
the possibility always exists that changes in sedimentation rate alone, and not charcoal production and deposition, could generate patterns of variation in char time series (clark et al ., 1996b). to test for this possibility, we examined the age versus depth curves (age model), sedimentation rates, charcoal concentration and influx data for each site, as well as char, bchar, peaks and fire-episode frequency data. in order to facilitate comparisons, two components of the decomposition analysis were standardized. the bin-width used to interpolate concentration values into equally spaced time intervals was standardized to 10 years. similarly, the background-smoothing window-width used to identify long-term trends in the interpolated char data was standardized to 500 years. the threshold value used to identify peaks and infer fire-episode
what is old Dhaka
human settlement and the development of infrastructure started in the sixteenth century in the southern part of the present city corporation that is known as "old dhaka
what makes Dhaka one of the most unplanned urban centres ?
the rapid development of human settlements, the growth of national and international business, the opening of new trades and the expansion of private and public establishments, industry and infrastructure have made dhaka one of the most unplanned urban centres
which degraded the overall environment of the city ?
to meet the rapidly growing demands of different sectors, utility services were established and expanded at different times, but not at the same pace as population growth and demand. this disparity and the unequal development and management of the utility services, and improper management of the natural resources and natural hazards (for instance fl oods, excessive rainfall) have degraded the overall environment of the city
human settlement and the development of infrastructure started in the sixteenth century in the southern part of the present city corporation that is known as "old dhaka". over the last 400 years, the city has experienced a number of dramatic historic events. political changes and shifts in power have also brought about changes in demography and structural development. over the last few centuries, dhaka has extended to approximately 40 kilometres from north to south and 14 kilometres from east to west. in 1951, it covered 85 square kilometres and had 0.4 million inhabitants. it experienced a very rapid expansion in area and population after independence in 1971. since then, the rapid development of human settlements, the growth of national and international business, the opening of new trades and the expansion of private and public establishments, industry and infrastructure have made dhaka one of the most unplanned urban centres. to meet the rapidly growing demands of different sectors, utility services were established and expanded at different times, but not at the same pace as population growth and demand. this disparity and the unequal development and management of the utility services, and improper management of the natural resources and natural hazards (for instance fl oods, excessive rainfall) have degraded the overall environment of the city.
What entity's staff helped in many ways to facilitate the preparation of this report?
the following world bank staff, who have helped in many ways to facilitate the preparation of this report
What event's fruitful discussions were acknowledged?
we also acknowledge the fruitful discussions at the 2003 essd week climate change adaptation event
What is the title of the companion report that expands on selected presentations from the ESSD sessions?
a selection of presentations from the essd sessions have been expanded into short papers and collected into a companion report edited by ajay mathur, ian burton and maarten van aalst, under the title "an adaptation mosaic 
we thank the following world bank staff, who have helped in many ways to facilitate the preparation of this report: ajay mathur, ian noble, mahesh sharma, frank sperling, and yuriko sakairi. in addition the following people have made helpful suggestions and supplied information: margaret arnold, ko barrett, sofia bettencourt, yasemin biro, alcira kreimer, yuka makino, walter vergara, and jan vermeiren. a preliminary version of this document was reviewed by shardul agrawala, sam fankhauser, madeleen helmer, saleemul huq, richard klein, neil leary, liza leclerc, kseniya lvovsky, ian noble, bill rahill, rama chandra reddy, joel smith, barry smit, frank sperling, and gary yohe. we benefited greatly from their comments, but of course remain responsible for judgments, errors or omissions. we also acknowledge the fruitful discussions at the 2003 essd week climate change adaptation event and thank all presenters and participants. a selection of presentations from the essd sessions have been expanded into short papers and collected into a companion report edited by ajay mathur, ian burton and maarten van aalst, under the title "an adaptation mosaic " this report provides more detailed information on a range of activities related to climate change undertaken by and through the world bank. ian burton (ian.burton@ec.gc.ca) maarten van aalst (aalst@phys.uu.nl)
What did migration rates calculated based on the pollen record for north-temperate trees initially suggest ?
extremely rapid post-glacial migration during the holocene (clark 1998
What hope did migration rates calculated based on the pollen record for north-temperate trees provide ?
that unaided migrations in the face of contemporary climate change might be sufficiently rapid to prevent extinction
What will play a similar role as foci of northward expansion in response to ongoing anthropogenic climate change ?
we suggest that nurseries and gardens will play a similar role
scattered horticultural centers and gardens, far north of species' natural range limits, essentially represent small outlying populations, and past range shifts during the holocene inferred from paleoecological evidence support the importance of small outlying populations during migration. migration rates calculated based on the pollen record for north-temperate trees initially suggested extremely rapid post-glacial migration during the holocene (clark 1998), providing some hope that unaided migrations in the face of contemporary climate change might be sufficiently rapid to prevent extinction. however, recent evidence indicates these initial estimates were overly fast given that small populations far north of the main center of abundance, which are typically ignored in traditional paleoecological analyses, appear to have provided critical foci for colonization and spread northward during the holocene (mclachlan et al. 2005). we suggest that nurseries and gardens will play a similar role as foci of northward expansion in response to ongoing anthropogenic climate change.
What conceptualizes cardiorespiratory oxygen cascade? Onceititizes the movement of oxygen down its partial pressure gradient from a respiratory medium to the tissues
the cardiorespiratory oxygen cascade conceptualizes the movement of oxygen down its partial pressure gradient from a respiratory medium to tissues
What corresponds to VO2? Corresponds to the oxygen flow per unit time
vo2 corresponds to the oxygen flux per unit time through this cascade and oxygen diffusion rates are proportional to the relevant oxygen partial pressure po2) gradients
For fish, how does oxygen diffuse? diffuses from water through the secondary gills lamellae and binds to hemoglobin
for fish, oxygen diffuses from water across gill secondary lamellae and binds to haemoglobin
the cardiorespiratory oxygen cascade conceptualizes the movement of oxygen down its partial pressure gradient from a respiratory medium to tissues. hence, vo2 corresponds to the oxygen flux per unit time through this cascade and oxygen diffusion rates are proportional to the relevant oxygen partial pressure po2) gradients. for fish, oxygen diffuses from water across gill secondary lamellae and binds to haemoglobin (hb) in red blood cells, which are transported by the circulatory system to tissues where oxygen diffuses across the capillary wall and into the cell to be used in mitochondrial respiration (fig.3). a countercurrent arrangement of blood and water flow at the secondary lamellae ensures that the arterial blood leaving the gills has a po2 p ao2) close to ambient water, and its hb is almost fully saturated, i.e. the oxygen content of arterial blood c ao2) is near maximal. convection of oxygen to tissues by the arterial system is quantified as the product of c ao2 and cardiac output. thus, increasing cardiac output is the only means to internally transport more oxygen to the tissues, unless stored red blood cells are released from the spleen to increase hb concentration [hb] and hence c ao2 (see gallaugher and farrell, 1998). once in tissue capillaries, factors such as the architecture of the capillaries, the presence of myoglobin and lipid droplets in the cytoplasm and the actual location of mitochondria within the cell significantly influence the rate of diffusion of oxygen from the red blood cell to the mitochondria. in a resting fish, increasing tissue oxygen delivery with increasing temperature could simply recruit mechanisms that are normally used during exercise. when salmonids exercise at a constant temperature, there are increases in gill ventilation (to deliver more water), cardiac output (to transport more oxygen to
what the climatic condition in the shaded and sunlit areas during winter?
in winter, it increases in karaiskaki and decreases for the seashore
how does the playground appears?
the fact that the playground is shaded and thus less desirable at lower air temperatures than the sunny playground at karaiskaki
how does a person sitting on the beach feel in Athens?
in athens, are mostly associated with southern winds, hence anyone sitting on the benches along the seashore is directly exposed to the humid wind blowing directly from the sea
examining the two sites as wholes (i.e. shaded and sunlit areas together), as expected, presence decreases in summer, more intensely for the seashore, while in winter, it increases in karaiskaki and decreases for the seashore (fig. 9). the latter could be attributed to the fact that the playground is shaded and thus less desirable at lower air temperatures than the sunny playground at karaiskaki, as well as the fact that higher temperatures during winter, in athens, are mostly associated with southern winds, hence anyone sitting on the benches along the seashore is directly exposed to the humid wind blowing directly from the sea.
What is concidered in studies that incorporate higher temperatures?
studies that incorporate higher temperatures, enhanced co2 concentrations and increased precipitation tend to project increased forest productivity
What will affect the ability of both forests and the forest industry to adapt?
in addition to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forests, other factors, such as land use changes, will affect the ability of both forests and the forest industry to adapt
What possible results th uncertainties in climate models and our incomplete understanding of ecosystem processes can bring?
due to uncertainties in climate models and our incomplete understanding of ecosystem processes, it is unlikely that precise predictions of climate change impacts on forestry are attainable
climate change can cause fundamental changes in forest ecosystem dynamics. however, results of numerous studies examining the impact of climate change on forests vary greatly, depending on the factors considered and the assumptions made. for example, studies that incorporate higher temperatures, enhanced co2 concentrations and increased precipitation tend to project increased forest productivity. if increased disturbances (fires, insect outbreaks) and the ecosystem instability induced by species migrations are included in the study, negative impacts are usually suggested. in addition to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forests, other factors, such as land use changes, will affect the ability of both forests and the forest industry to adapt. to assess overall vulnerability, all these factors need to be considered, as should the capacity to implement adaptation options. due to uncertainties in climate models and our incomplete understanding of ecosystem processes, it is unlikely that precise predictions of climate change impacts on forestry are attainable. this does not constrain our ability to adapt, but instead emphasizes the need to maintain or increase forest resiliency. climate change should be incorporated into long-term forest planning, so that potential mismatches between species and future climatic and disturbance regimes are minimized. these measures will assist in reducing the vulnerability of forests to climate change.
What are important for the global approach to agricultural research?
climate modeling and scenario building are important for the global approach to agricultural research
What are involved in scaling down the global climate model output to the high spatial resolutions?
uncertainties are involved in scaling down the global climate model output to the high spatial resolutions
What barely figure in global models?
some archipelagic and small island countries most at risk from climate change barely figure in global models
climate modeling and scenario building are important for the global approach to agricultural research, but three challenges must be addressed to achieve practical results. first, we must understand what the local impacts of climate change are likely to be. uncertainties are involved in scaling down the global climate model output to the high spatial resolutions needed for effective adaptation work at regional and national levels. some archipelagic and small island countries most at risk from climate change barely figure in global models. substantiating the local effects of long-term change requires that long-term research and monitoring is supported at key, agroecologically defined regional sites. second, a significant gap exists between the seasonal information we currently have and that on climate change in the long run (2050 and beyond): information about what is likely over the next 3 to 20 years is largely missing. this presents a critical problem, as this time scale is vital for vulnerability assessment, agricultural planning, and political negotiation. third, convincingly communicating the results from modeling scenarios to decisionmakers, including farmers and policymakers, will be one of the most significant challenges. scenarios integrating possible socioeconomic (and climate) futures will therefore be central to exploring and communicating adaptation and mitigation approaches. there must be a long-term approach to building knowledge and capacity at the local scale for effective responses to occur.
What shows significantly stronger shift?
roetzer et al. (2000) explicitly quantified the additional impacts of urban warming by comparing phenological trends between urban and rural sites from 1951 to 1995
Urban sites show what kind of shifts?
urban sites showed significantly stronger shifts toward earlier spring timing than nearby rural sites, by 2-4 days. an analysis of greening across the united states via satellite imagery also concluded that urban areas have experienced an earlier onset of spring compared with rural areas (white et al. 2002
What do reports potray?
researchers generally report phenological changes as a separate category from changes in species' distributions, but these two phenomena interplay with each other and with other factors, such as photoperiod, to ultimately determine how climate change affects each species (bale et al. 2002, chuine beaubien 2001
roetzer et al. (2000) explicitly quantified the additional impacts of urban warming by comparing phenological trends between urban and rural sites from 1951 to 1995. urban sites showed significantly stronger shifts toward earlier spring timing than nearby rural sites, by 2-4 days. an analysis of greening across the united states via satellite imagery also concluded that urban areas have experienced an earlier onset of spring compared with rural areas (white et al. 2002). researchers generally report phenological changes as a separate category from changes in species' distributions, but these two phenomena interplay with each other and with other factors, such as photoperiod, to ultimately determine how climate change affects each species (bale et al. 2002, chuine beaubien 2001).
what was done in Jambi, Sumatra, Indonesia ?
another approach involves linking particular communities with district-level government actors, as was done in jambi, sumatra, indonesia (komarudin et al. 2008) or underway in landscape mosaics sites in guinea, tanzania, cameroon, lao pdr, indonesia and madagascar (pfund et al. 2008
What has the need for linking local and national scales justified?
the need for linking local and national scales has justified the development of learning mechanisms that foster exchanges of information between the different scales
What is the concept of shared learning workshops?
another broad-scale approach is 'shared learning workshops' (see box 3). these bring together individuals from all levels and various settings to share what has worked in their respective localities
another approach involves linking particular communities with district-level government actors, as was done in jambi, sumatra, indonesia (komarudin et al. 2008) or underway in landscape mosaics sites in guinea, tanzania, cameroon, lao pdr, indonesia and madagascar (pfund et al. 2008). the use of multistakeholder forums can serve a similar function of maximising communication and collaboration among levels and actors (e.g., yuliani et al. 2008a, b). these models build on the acm approach described above, conducting participatory action research at both community and district government levels. shared concerns are then identified between the two levels, and collaboration is encouraged as both villagers and officials struggle with addressing the shared goals. linking local and national scales the need for linking local and national scales has justified the development of learning mechanisms that foster exchanges of information between the different scales. an example is the national policy learning group approach, used in indonesia and nepal for bringing together government and nongovernment actors who are genuinely committed to addressing national problems (see box 2). to date, acm facilitators have played leadership roles in these groups, inculcating a systematic learning approach within the groups. climate change issues are perfect 'problems' for such groups to address, which should ideally maintain close links with the community level (whether through shared trials, frequent field trips, direct community involvement, or other mechanisms). another broad-scale approach is 'shared learning workshops' (see box 3). these bring together individuals from all levels and various settings to share what has worked in their respective localities. such workshops have been quite successful in providing a mechanism for districts in indonesia (newly empowered after the 2001 decentralisation law) to learn from each other's successes and failures. another approach for developing scenarios of the future with stakeholders is described in box 4. these approaches can also contribute to climate change adaptation.
What have been set up since 1982?
since 1982, 72 permanent plots have been set up along a 250 m transect at the desert laboratory in tucson, arizona, through a creosote shrub flat that has been protected from grazing since 1906
Why were the plots visited each year?
each year, the plots were visited after every autumn and winter rain event to record germination
What does the abundance of species permit?
these species are abundant enough to permit reliable long-term demographic analysis and represent 74% of all individuals enumerated in the long-term data set
since 1982, 72 permanent plots have been set up along a 250 m transect at the desert laboratory in tucson, arizona, through a creosote shrub flat that has been protected from grazing since 1906. twenty-four of the plots are 0.05 m2, and the rest are 0.10 m2. germination, survival, and fecundity of desert winter annuals have been recorded annually (venable, 2007). each year, the plots were visited after every autumn and winter rain event to record germination. plots then were visited monthly or following subsequent rain events. individuals were mapped and survival and reproduction were recorded until all plants died at the end of the growing season. in this study, we focused on nine abundant species for which we have both long-term demographic data and physiological data (table 1). these species are abundant enough to permit reliable long-term demographic analysis and represent 74% of all individuals enumerated in the long-term data set.
What is reference evaporation is calculated for?
a grass surface with no soil moisture restrictions
How can Vegetation cover can also influence the local climate?
forest canopies are usually cooler during the day and warmer during the night than open areas
How can you assess the statistical accuracy?
it is impossible to assess the statistical accuracy of climate surfaces for areas that lack station coverage, such as high montane and arctic environments
while the software package provides convenient access to climate data at any resolution, it is important to discuss limitation of the database for end users. mean absolute errors of climate estimates for all monthly, seasonal, annual, and derived climate variables are small for 30-yr normal periods, but the error increases for shorter time periods as previously discussed. a second note of caution applies to areas with sparse coverage of weather stations (fig. 1). it is impossible to assess the statistical accuracy of climate surfaces for areas that lack station coverage, such as high montane and arctic environments. it has been pointed out that different interpolation techniques applied to northern canada and montane environments produce rather different climate surfaces that nevertheless converge at weather station locations to produce identical statistical accuracies (mbogga et al. 2010). finally, all interpolated climate surfaces used in this study are ultimately based on standard weather stations (shaded temperature sensors located at 1.5-m height in open areas). consequently, microclimate driven by small-scale topography such as aspect, slope, and frost pockets, and geographic features such as rivers and lakes are not captured. vegetation cover can also influence the local climate; for example, forest canopies are usually cooler during the day and warmer during the night than open areas. the reference evaporation is calculated for a grass surface with no soil moisture restrictions. values for other surfaces such as forest or lakes and for locations with limited soil moisture storage capacity or topographic shading will likely be different. therefore, when climatewna is used to generate climate data at fine scales and for specific locations, it is necessary to be aware that while temperature changes along elevation gradients may be accurately captured, other effects of local topography and vegetation are not. acknowledgments. we thank peter gouldat the usda forest service, pacific northwest research station, for providing and processing daily climate data for this study. we also acknowledge david bronaugh for preparing the additional gcm anomaly files for all future projections. this study was funded by forest science program under the forest investment account, the future forest ecosystems scientific council, and the ministry of forests, lands and natural resource operations, british columbia, canada. additional funding was provided by the nserc/discovery grant rgpin-330527-07 and the nserc/crd grant crdpj 349100-06.
Describe the duration and location of rainfall events?
the analysis includes all grid points over southern united kingdom, corresponding to all land points within the 1.5-km-rcm inner domain (blue rectangle in fig. 1). we use 8 years of hourly precipitation data from each of the datasets
Define periods of rainfall?
the analysis is performed at the 12-km rcm scale, with the hourly precipitation fields for the 1.5-km model and 5-km radar being first aggregated to the 12-km rcm grid. for each 12-km grid square across the southern united kingdom, we identify occurrences of precipitation above a given threshold in the hourly time series. independent occurrences, or ''events,'' are defined as continuous periods of precipitation exceeding the threshold at a given location. for each event, the duration of precipitation above the threshold is counted and the peak intensity recorded
to assess the realism of rainfall in the 1.5and 12-km rcms, we examine the duration and spatial size of rainfall events. the analysis includes all grid points over southern united kingdom, corresponding to all land points within the 1.5-km-rcm inner domain (blue rectangle in fig. 1). we use 8 years of hourly precipitation data from each of the datasets, corresponding to the years 1990-97 or 2000-07 for the models and 2003-10 for the radar. the analysis is performed at the 12-km rcm scale, with the hourly precipitation fields for the 1.5-km model and 5-km radar being first aggregated to the 12-km rcm grid. for each 12-km grid square across the southern united kingdom, we identify occurrences of precipitation above a given threshold in the hourly time series. independent occurrences, or ''events,'' are defined as continuous periods of precipitation exceeding the threshold at a given location. for each event, the duration of precipitation above the threshold is counted and the peak intensity recorded. each event is then allocated to a duration and peak-intensity bin, and statistics are built up of the total number of events in each bin across all southern u.k. grid boxes and all years in the respective datasets. similarly, we also examine the spatial size of precipitation cells for each hour in the time series. in this case, cell size
Which species was less affected by recent glacial advances?
percichthys trucha was less affected by recent glacial advances
Where are Galaxias platei P. trucha finding permanent refuge?
the cold-adapted galaxias platei p. trucha appears to have had a permanent refuge northwest of the andes throughout the quaternary
Why were Galaxias platei P. trucha less affected than the warmadapted species?
galaxias platei p. trucha appears to have had a permanent refuge northwest of the andes throughout the quaternary, and the large refuge areas east and north of the glacial limit likely reduced the impact of recent glacial cycles on its population size and genetic diversity
in summary, the timelines of demographic change obtained using a bayesian skyline approach suggest that two of the most wide-spread species of fish in patagonia responded differently to the climatic and geomorphological events that characterized the quaternary, and that the more warmadapted species, percichthys trucha was less affected by recent glacial advances than the cold-adapted galaxias platei p. trucha appears to have had a permanent refuge northwest of the andes throughout the quaternary, and the large refuge areas east and north of the glacial limit likely reduced the impact of recent glacial cycles on its population size and genetic diversity. in contrast, use of temporary habitats by g. platei (postglacial lakes and rivers) led to dramatic reductions in population size for this species during the lgm and probably during most previous glacial stages. the glaciations most prominently represented in the geological record had disproportionately large effects on g. platei and p. trucha and perhaps on the aquatic fauna of the region in general, but some effects varied regionally, pointing to the need for additional information on the palaeoclimates of these periods. our results thus illustrate the potential strengths of an interplay between the study 10 d. e. ruzzante et al
What gives rise to the diversity in estimates of climate sensitivity?
arises from cloud-related feedbacks on climate change
What leads to the range in climate sensitivity in present-day models?
can be traced to differences in how shallow clouds in the tropics respond to climate change bony and dufresne 2005
What is the outcome of inspecting scatterplots?
no evidence for any nonlinear relationships
as we noted in section 1, the most significant application of climate models is for projections of longterm climate change, for which climate sensitivity is often used as a proxy. much of the diversity in estimates of climate sensitivity, in turn, arises from cloud-related feedbacks on climate change. in particular, much of the range in climate sensitivity in present-day models can be traced to differences in how shallow clouds in the tropics respond to climate change bony and dufresne 2005]. it would therefore be intriguing if there were a systematic relationship in this set of models between present-day skill in predicting cloud fields and some measure of how clouds respond to a changing climate. we have searched for an association by linearly regressing each of the metrics shown in figure 1 with estimates of the cloud feedback parameter made by soden and held [2006] and find no such relationships. linear correlation coefficients vary from 0 to a maximum of 0.53, indicating that none of our metrics for evaluating the fidelity of present-day simulations of clouds and radiation is a good predictor of cloud feedbacks under climate change in this set of models. we have also inspected the resulting scatterplots but find no evidence for any nonlinear relationships.
When the main Artemisia species pollen season usually start?
usually started in the second 10 days of july and lasted to the end of august
What the peak day that usually took place at the beginning of August, coincided with?
with other observations in northwest europe and in many other parts of poland nevertheless, trend analysis showed a strong advance in the pollen season start dates (figure 2a
What a annual tendencies in meteorological factors recorded during late spring and summer (May to August) showed?
a gradual increase in temperature, except for the years 2003 and 2004, and a decrease in rainfall (figure 3
the main artemisia species pollen season usually started in the second 10 days of july and lasted to the end of august. the peak day usually took place at the beginning of august, coinciding with other observations in northwest europe and in many other parts of poland nevertheless, trend analysis showed a strong advance in the pollen season start dates (figure 2a). this advance was also detected, to a lesser extent, for the end dates of the season (figure 2b) and for the peak day (figure 2c). an increase in the artemisia species season length was therefore being recorded in the area of poznan (figure 2d). annual tendencies in meteorological factors recorded during late spring and summer (may to august) showed a gradual increase in temperature, except for the years 2003 and 2004, and a decrease in rainfall (figure 3). those climate trends re fl ect the general climate change trend in europe during recent decades this change in climate could be affecting the artemisia species pollen season dates in the city of poznan. the consequences of these changes in pollinosis sufferers can be important, due to the longer period of risk. many authors have produced evidence to suggest that climate change has already had an impact on aeroallergens [15-18], including studies suggesting longer pollen seasons in spring fl owering herbaceous species [19-22]. our results agree with these studies on herbaceous plants and also with the second main conclusion presented by the world health organization related to climate change impact on the phenology of allergenic plants: 1) "an earlier start and peak of the pollen season is more pronounced in species that start fl owering earlier in the year," and 2) "the duration of the season is extended in some summer and late summer fl owering species"
How are coastal zones important for human settlements?
coastal zones contain diverse and productive habitats important for human settlements, development and local subsistence
What portion of the Earth's population lives within 60 km of the shoreline?
more than half the world's population lives within 60 km of the shoreline, and this could rise to three quarters by the year 2020 (unced 1992
What are the factors exerting pressure on the ocean shores of the world?
this population surge in the narrow coastal strip, coupled with economic progress and development, extraction of resources, and increasing demands for recreational opportunities, is the ultimate driver for escalating pressures on the world's ocean shores, which are dominated by sandy beaches
problem coastal zones contain diverse and productive habitats important for human settlements, development and local subsistence. more than half the world's population lives within 60 km of the shoreline, and this could rise to three quarters by the year 2020 (unced 1992). this population surge in the narrow coastal strip, coupled with economic progress and development, extraction of resources, and increasing demands for recreational opportunities, is the ultimate driver for escalating pressures on the world's ocean shores, which are dominated by sandy beaches. thus, much of existing and future human pressures on global ecosystems are directed at sandy beaches. beaches are already under threat from a wide range of human activities and this will increase in the 21st century (figs 1-3; brown mclachlan 2002; schlacher et al. 2006, 2007a). in addition to direct anthropogenic impacts on beaches, global climate change is predicted to have dramatic, widespread and long-lasting consequences for
Who did study about  the significant changes in climate of  the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH)?
folland et al ., 2001; thompson and solomon, 2002
What was the character of the climatic changes in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) ?
climatic changes is complex, as the trends appear to be disparate at different locations
Where was a small cooling was noted ?
over the antarctic interior
over the past few decades, the high-latitude southern hemisphere (sh) climate has experienced significant changes (e.g., folland et al ., 2001; thompson and solomon, 2002). the character of these climatic changes is complex, as the trends appear to be disparate at different locations. for instance, the limited data available suggest that in recent decades temperatures over the antarctic peninsula have increased (folland et al ., 2001; vaughan et al ., 2001), while a small cooling was noted over the antarctic interior. similarly, sea ice concentrations have decreased in some areas (e.g., bellingshausen sea; jacobsen and comiso, 1997), while the sea ice extent has increased elsewhere (e.g., eastern antarctica, ross sea; stammerjohn and smith, 1997). the sparse network of *author for correspondence (e-mail: hans.renssen@geo.falw.vu.nl)
What actions are need to avoid dangerous climate change for future generations?
early action on emission reductions is needed in order to avoid dangerous climate change for future generations
What will continue to rise for a long time after emission reductions are implemented?
this delayed response of the climate system and carbon cycle indicates that co2 concentrations and temperatures will continue to rise for a long time after emission reductions are implemented
(figures 8a and 9a) is a critical feature of our results. by year 2100 the year of peak emissions, atmospheric co2 will have increased by 580 ppmv above preindustrial levels and surface air temperatures will be 4  c warmer. two hundred years later, when emissions have decreased to zero, atmospheric co2 is reaching its peak value of 1800 ppmv above preindustrial values and the climate is 8.4  c warmer. this delayed response of the climate system and carbon cycle indicates that co2 concentrations and temperatures will continue to rise for a long time after emission reductions are implemented. it follows that humans may commit the planet to dangerous climate change through emissions generated while the observed climate change remains still relatively mild wigley 2005]. this is a treacherous situation and suggests that we cannot wait until climatic changes are so large that they strongly and directly affect our lives. early action on emission reductions is needed in order to avoid dangerous climate change for future generations.
What are the two time scales called?
given our paradigm of a damped oscillator, two time scales are relevant: the damping time scale (persistence) and the oscillation time scale (period
What does the damping time scale determine?
the damping time scale determines how long an initial anomaly can stay above the noise level and is therefore the key time scale for predictability, at least in a linear framework
What is true about the relatively fast atmospheric processes?
due to the relatively fast atmospheric processes, it is natural to attribute the memory of interdecadal variability to the subsurface ocean
regardless of the generation mechanism, it is important to understand the mechanisms responsible for the preferred time scales of interdecadal variability, where preferred time scales actually exist. given our paradigm of a damped oscillator, two time scales are relevant: the damping time scale (persistence) and the oscillation time scale (period). the damping time scale determines how long an initial anomaly can stay above the noise level and is therefore the key time scale for predictability, at least in a linear framework. the damping time scale also puts an upper bound on a meaningful oscillation time scale because interdecadal variability can exhibit oscillatory behavior only if its oscillation time scale is shorter than the damping time scale (fig. 5). due to the relatively fast atmospheric processes, it is natural to attribute the memory of interdecadal variability to the subsurface ocean. as such, the damping time may be estimated crudely as a thermal damping time of the upper-ocean heat content. if we assume temporal anomalies in the basin scale, the upper-ocean heat budget anomaly roughly satisfies the linearized local heat balance equation: r cph >tt 9 >tqt 9 (1) where r cp, and h are the density, heat capacity, and depth of the perturbed water, respectively; q is the total surface heat flux, and >tq is the heat flux sensitivity to sst perturbation. the variable t 9 is the temperature anomaly, which, for simplicity, has been assumed comparable with the sst anomaly as in a bulk mixed layer. the thermal damping time scale can be estimated as t r cph j >tq j so the damping time scale increases with water depth. given the observed total heat flux sensitivity at the basin scale as >tq 2 10 w m2 2k2 1
What was found with using the 20+ years of streamflow calibration data from USGS gauge stations in the four watersheds?
with more than 20-years of streamflow calibration data from 14, 41, 20, and 25 usgs gauge stations at rrw, irw, krw, and wrw, respectively, streamflow simulations were validated at each station in the four watersheds, and a general agreement with the corresponding observations was found
What did the results suggest is important when hydrologic responses across large watersheds are desired from model simulations.
the results suggest the importance of multi-site calibration and validation when hydrologic responses across large watersheds are desired from model simulations
What do complex hydrologic models usually contain that are difficult to estimate?
complex hydrologic models usually contain certain non-physically based parameters whose values can be difficult to estimate
with more than 20-years of streamflow calibration data from 14, 41, 20, and 25 usgs gauge stations at rrw, irw, krw, and wrw, respectively, streamflow simulations were validated at each station in the four watersheds, and a general agreement with the corresponding observations was found. the results suggest the importance of multi-site calibration and validation when hydrologic responses across large watersheds are desired from model simulations. without the multi-site calibration and validation, spatial variation within the watershed would be masked takken et al., 1999 ), suggesting the importance of collecting spatially distributed data (when available) to conduct simultaneous multi-site calibration zhang et al., 2008 ). physically-based parameters in hydrologic models can be directly measured in the field; however, complex hydrologic models usually contain certain non-physically based parameters whose values can be difficult to estimate. for example, none of the four
where did a relatively large outbreak occur in 2008?
in 2008 a relatively large outbreak occurred in northern italy
what does the evidence suggest?
the evidence suggests that the virus is now overwintering as a resident pathogen and that climate warming will spread the infection such that europe could face a situation with wnf similar to that in the usa
west nile virus and other fl aviviruses in response to a relatively small increase in temperature, a markedly decreased west nile virus (wnv) incubation period for the mosquito culex tarsalis allows signifi cantly increased vectorial capacity. it is probably signifi cant that wnv endemicity was achieved in the usa coincident with the hottest summer on record, an observation that is consistent with the explanation for other outbreaks in russia and romania, although collection of longer time-series data would aid interpretation. evidence is being collected to document the emergence and spread of mosquito-borne fl aviviruses in central europe. globally, wnv is the most widespread fl avivirus. however, despite a long-term presence in europe, it has rarely been associated with clinical symptoms. however, in 2008 a relatively large outbreak occurred in northern italy, affecting humans as well as birds and horses; and in hungary, spreading into austria, there was an extensive outbreak of the virus in birds of prey, sheep and horses with some human infection (mild meningitis). the evidence suggests that the virus is now overwintering as a resident pathogen and that climate warming will spread the infection such that europe could face a situation with wnf similar to that in the usa. to prepare public health authorities for this possibility, it is important to institute a european lineagespecifi c wnv surveillance programme covering birds, mosquitoes and horses as well as humans. this requires increased collaboration between the human health and veterinary sectors. the emergence of other new fl aviviruses in europe is exemplifi ed by usutu virus, never previously observed outside (sub-)tropical africa but associated in 2001 with an outbreak of avian mortality in austria. this virus spread in bird populations within austria up to 2003 and then declined, possibly attributable to the development of herd immunity. although no human encephalitis was detected, there were cases of rash and specifi c antibodies measured in a signifi cant number of asymptomatic individuals. the same viral strain has also now been found in hungary, switzerland and italy. the conclusions drawn from this case study were that usutu virus too could survive the austrian winter, has adapted to european mosquito species and established effective transmission between local mosquitoes and birds. it has become a resident pathogen that might spread further. there is less evidence to conclude that climate change can explain other recent global trends in arboviral distribution and incidence. modelling studies suggest that the spread of dengue in the americas might be explained by increases in temperature and rainfall subject to the infl uence of the underlying climate. if the climate is already hot and wet, further change may have little infl uence on dengue transmission10. the interpretation of the epidemiology of japanese encephalitis is also complex: although there has been some expansion into south asia, rates in japan have declined, perhaps because of vaccination. chikungunya the increased incidence and geographical distribution of chikungunya, most recently in italy, might be interpreted more easily as a result of globalisation, specifi cally the trade in used tyres, a good breeding ground for the vector aedes albopictus than as a specifi c consequence of climate change. however, a rapid spread of ae. albopictus has been documented in the balkans, france, spain and greece as well as italy. further insight on the impact of climate change will emerge from better mapping of vector distribution11. there is also concern about the possible into europe of the mosquito aedes aegypti another important vector for the chikungunya virus as well as other arboviruses such as dengue and yellow fever, which has already appeared in madeira. it is noteworthy that perhaps one hundred cases of chikungunya occurred in italy before reaching medical and public awareness. there is room to do much better in early signal detection, education and communication; this requires better networking among international public health bodies and with member state authorities.
How are patients chosen to be a part of the surveillance system for the study at the Dhaka Hospital?
every 50th patient visiting the hospital has been enrolled in a surveillance system since 1996
Apart from basic demographic data, what other living conditions of the participants were investigated?
roof structure of the house), hygiene and sanitation practices (drinking water source, distance to the water source and type of toilet
Name two parasites that were also investigated during the surveillance program.
parasites were also routinely examined during the study period including cryptosporidium parvum, entamoeba histolytica and giardia lamblia of which the number of cases was small
the primary outcome in this study is the weekly number of patients visiting the international centre for diarrhoeal disease research, bangladesh (icddr,b) dhaka hospital due to non-cholera diarrhoea. the hospital serves an urban population of approximately 10 million individuals6and provides free treatment to more than 100 000 cases of diarrhoea each year. every 50th patient visiting the hospital has been enrolled in a surveillance system since 1996. for all patients enrolled in the surveillance, microbiological examination of stool or a rectal swab sample was conducted to identify enteric pathogens. the patient or family members were interviewed by health workers who collect socio-demographic data at the time of the hospital visits. we ed individual information on the date of the hospital visit, age, sex, socio-economic status (educational level and roof structure of the house), hygiene and sanitation practices (drinking water source, distance to the water source and type of toilet) and pathogens identified from stool specimen during a 7-year period (january 1996- december 2002). a patient was classified as non-cholera diarrhoea when vibrio cholerae was not identified from the stool specimen. the cause of non-cholera diarrhoea was categorized as rotavirus, shigella salmonella campylobacter, escherichia coli aeromonas or other diarrhoea to show the components of non-cholera diarrhoea. salmonella includes all salmonella species except for s. typhi e. coli consists of enterotoxigenic and enteropathogenic e. coli other diarrhoea includes diarrhoea with none of pathogens identified. when two or more pathogens amongst these non-cholera pathogens were identified from the same stool specimen, the patient was classified in each category of pathogen-specific diarrhoea for pathogen-specific descriptive analysis. parasites were also routinely examined during the study period including cryptosporidium parvum, entamoeba histolytica and giardia lamblia of which the number of cases was small.
What method will provide different results? non-hydrostatic equations
here we are on less safe ground and it could well be the case that future ultrahigh-resolution simulations using nonhydrostatic equations will give different results
What is the description of extratropical cyclones? are well described by the quasi-strophic equations
however, extratropical cyclones are well described by the quasigeostrophic equations
What are short and medium range forecasts like with similar models?
also, shortand medium-range predictions with similar models are accurate with forecast errors more often related to errors in the initial state
here we are on less safe ground and it could well be the case that future ultrahigh-resolution simulations using nonhydrostatic equations will give different results. however, extratropical cyclones are well described by the quasigeostrophic equations, so we do not expect that the extratropical cyclones will be very different in a nonhydrostatic model. also, shortand medium-range predictions with similar models are accurate with forecast errors more often related to errors in the initial state. in selected areas, where extreme wind statistics are available, the results agree with observations as well as with limited-area models. extreme precipitation on the other hand, is likely to be even more pronounced in models with higher resolution than we have investigated here. additional studies to clarify this will be needed. however, our view is that an accurate resolution of the synoptic-scale flow will provide more robust predictors for local extreme precipitation.
What happens in autopolyploids?
in autopolyploids, double reduction tends to reduce the effective subpopulation size and promote differentiation among subpopulations, increasing fst as would do selfing
What does doublw reaction tends to do?
in autopolyploids, double reduction tends to reduce the effective subpopulation size and promote differentiation among subpopulations, increasing fst as would do selfing
How was its significance assessed?
significance was assessed by permutation tests, with 999 random permutations of locations, individuals and genes
in autopolyploids, double reduction tends to reduce the effective subpopulation size and promote differentiation among subpopulations, increasing fst as would do selfing. therefore, ronfort et al. (1998) defined a new parameter related to fst, q which is independent of both the selfing rate and the proportion of double reduction. it is therefore identical for all loci, independently of their distance to the centromere. we estimated both global and pairwise q among populations using an anova anova framework in the program spagedi spagedi (hardy vekemans, 2002). significance was assessed by permutation tests, with 999 random permutations of locations, individuals and genes.
What tool does M. Strack used to measure the concentration of CO2?
m. strack and others the co2 concentration was measured using a pp systems egm1 infrared gas analyzer
What procedure was used in order to result these measurements?
measurements of temperature, par, and co2 concentration were recorded at 30 s intervals for 2 min. the chamber was removed from the collar and vented after each measurement set. three to four measurement sets were conducted for each collar on each measurement date, using shroud shades of varying transparency each time
m. strack and others the co2 concentration was measured using a pp systems egm1 infrared gas analyzer. measurements of temperature, par, and co2 concentration were recorded at 30 s intervals for 2 min. the chamber was removed from the collar and vented after each measurement set. three to four measurement sets were conducted for each collar on each measurement date, using shroud shades of varying transparency each time. the depth to the water table, volumetric water content of the soil, and a soil temperature profile were measured for each collar at the same time that the gas samples were collected for co2 concentration analysis. water table position was measured using 1.3 - 1.9 cm i.d. pvc wells and a manual water level indicator. gross ecosystem production was calculated by subtracting total respiration rtot) from net ecosystem exchange (nee).
How many aspects does this focus review?
the review focuses on 2 aspects
What is the first aspect?
the cognitive and cultural landscape in which farmers' understanding of climate and climate information is grounded
What is the second aspect?
the decision-making processes and environment which shape farmers' adaptive strategies
this article synthesizes the state of the art in the application of ethnographic and participatory methods in climate application research. the review focuses on 2 aspects: (1) the cognitive and cultural landscape in which farmers' understanding of climate and climate information is grounded and (2) the decision-making processes and environment which shape farmers' adaptive strategies. the first part analyzes methods to elicit how farmers perceive and predict climate events and how these perspectives relate to scientific forecasts. it addresses the long-standing question of whether and how farmers understand the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts and how they assess the credibility and accuracy of such information. the second part examines approaches to characterizing the vulnerability of decision makers and to elucidating the configuration of options and obstacles that farmers face in using climate forecasts to mitigate risk. the complexities of farmers' decisions and the difficulties of identifying the exact role that climate predictions play (and, therefore, of directly attributing impacts to them) are taken into account. finally, the review highlights efforts to transcend the localized focus of farmer-centered approaches in order to capture interactions across sectors and scales. the review concludes by proposing that climate application research move from a 'technology-adoption' paradigm to a broader perspective on vulnerability and adaptation. this shift will entail a cross-scale, multi-sited research design and an interdisciplinary mix of interactive and structured tools and techniques. it will also require that the analytical focus be expanded to encompass local communities and their multiple action spaces as well as the higher spheres of decision-making, where policy and science are shaped. key words: farmer participatory research * ethnographic methods * climate forecasts * risk communication * livelihood adaptation * vulnerability
What is the region considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change?
the mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change
What does the acronym IPCC stands for?
following the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) concepts
From how many Global Circulation Models were the future climate projections were generated from?
future climate projections were generated from 19 global circulation models
the mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. we developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. following the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. to quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from mexico, guatemala, el salvador and nicaragua. future climate projections were generated from 19 global circulation models. focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for el salvador and lowest loss for mexico. high vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. this was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.
How is FFP calculated?
by subtracting bffp from effp
How much was evaporation underestimated at two high-elevation sites (near mountain tops)?
up to 20
What is the surface layer climate at two high-elevation sites (near mountain tops) is strongly affected by?
free atmosphere
nffd and minimum monthly temperatures in april, may, and june, and for effp with a polynomial function based on nffd and minimum monthly temperatures in june, july, september, and october. ffp is calculated by subtracting bffp from effp. for estimation of evaporation, the hargreaves equation (hargreaves and samni 1982; shuttleworth 1993) had the best agreement of the five temperature-based methods tested (data not shown), which is in agreement with shuttleworth's (1993) assessment. a latitude correction of the reference evaporation eref 5 ehar[(1.18 - 0.0067) 3 latitude] improved estimates further. evaporation was underestimated by up to 20% at two high-elevation sites (near mountain tops). here the surface layer climate is strongly affected by the free atmosphere (daly et al. 2008; mccutchan and fox 1986), which reduces the daily temperature range, a parameter in the hargreaves equation. on a monthly basis there was a tendency for
What does the health sector must do for the population to live with good long-term health?
for populations to live sustainably and with good long-term health, the health sector must work with other sectors
What kind of insight is necessary when it comes to undertaking primary prevention at the source to reduce health risks resulting from these global influences?
it requires conceptual insights beyond the conventional understanding of causation and prevention, as well as political will, trust, and resources
What should we do regarding energy?
reshaping how human societies plan, build, move, produce, consume, share, and generate energy
undertaking primary prevention at the source to reduce health risks resulting from these global influences is a formidable challenge. it requires conceptual insights beyond the conventional understanding of causation and prevention, as well as political will, trust, and resources. the complexities of policies to mitigate humaninduced climate change are clear. meanwhile, additional resources and strategies will be needed to reduce the health risks related to global change that have already arisen or are now unavoidable. for populations to live sustainably and with good long-term health, the health sector must work with other sectors in reshaping how human societies plan, build, move, produce, consume, share, and generate energy.
From which perspective have international studies predominantly addressed climate change?
climate change is a global environmental problem and international studies predominantly have addressed climate change from an environmental policy perspective
What does emerging literature recognizes about climate change?
however, emerging literature recognizes that climate change variability, extreme events and structural changes have major impacts on economic, social, and human living conditions as well as on natural systems
Where and how is the strong relationship between climate change and development recognized by IPCC?
the strong relationship between climate change and development is also recognized by ipcc in its fourth assessment report by stating that "the distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is still considered to be uneven, and low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; but there is new evidence that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within countries, including developed countries" (ipcc 2007, page 781
keywords: climate change, mainstreaming, sustainable development climate change is a global environmental problem and international studies predominantly have addressed climate change from an environmental policy perspective. however, emerging literature recognizes that climate change variability, extreme events and structural changes have major impacts on economic, social, and human living conditions as well as on natural systems. this implies, in developing countries, that key goals related to poverty reduction, water, food, energy, education and health are critically influenced by climate change, and that adaptation measures therefore should be tackled in the context of development policies. the strong relationship between climate change and development is also recognized by ipcc in its fourth assessment report by stating that "the distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is still considered to be uneven, and low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; but there is new evidence that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within countries, including developed countries" (ipcc 2007, page 781). existing efforts on climate change and development linkages include activities by the international institute for environment and development (iied), which has worked on mainstreaming climate change and on disaster risk reduction (yamin and huq 2005, huq and others 2006), and the world resources institute which, in a recent methodological case study analysis, has addressed how adaptation can be framed in the context of development (mcgray and others 2007). oecd is similarly in a process of developing guidelines for how development assistance can take climate change into consideration, and this work has been supported by several technical adaptation studies (agrawal 2005).
what are the convection have?
convection has a marked impact on several species; perhaps most importantly, increased convection tends to reduce column o3, except over polluted regions.39increased convection reduces the lifetime of the majority of o3 molecules (see section 4.4.3
what are the other models exhibit?
other models exhibit quite different sensitivities in composition to convection e.g. refs. 40 and 41). 4.1.4 precipitation. fig. 4 shows the change in total precipitation (convective plus dynamic; rain and snow) between the 1990s and 2020s due to climate change
Name the examples of wet deposition?
nitric acid (hno3) and hydrogen peroxide (h2o2
convection has a marked impact on several species; perhaps most importantly, increased convection tends to reduce column o3, except over polluted regions.39increased convection reduces the lifetime of the majority of o3 molecules (see section 4.4.3). convective parameters are also used in the model's interactive lightning scheme, thus changes in convection also effect the location and magnitude of lightning nox emissions. other models exhibit quite different sensitivities in composition to convection e.g. refs. 40 and 41). 4.1.4 precipitation. fig. 4 shows the change in total precipitation (convective plus dynamic; rain and snow) between the 1990s and 2020s due to climate change. changes in tropical convective rainfall dominate the picture with a strengthening of the inter-tropical and south pacific convergence zones (itcz and spcz, respectively) and hence monsoonal rainfall (linked to the strength and northward movement of the itcz). this results in increased rainfall over the pacific and asian monsoon regions, but decreased rainfall over indonesia, the indian ocean, and central and s. america. the increases coincide with areas of increases in deep convection (fig. 3b), whilst decreased mt updraughts may explain the decreases in precipitation seen over some tropical land regions. changes in precipitation may be important for soluble species whose main sink is via wet deposition, e.g. nitric acid (hno3) and hydrogen peroxide (h2o2).
What is a crucial factor determining the phenological schedule of alpine plants?
timing of snowmelt
What did the flowering of an early-melt snowbed community show?
a peak in the middle of flowering season
When were these habitat specific phenological patterns consistent?
between 1998 and 2001
timing of snowmelt is a crucial factor determining the phenological schedule of alpine plants. a long-term monitoring of snowmelt regimes in a japanese alpine revealed that snowmelt season has been accelerated during last 17 years in early snowmelt places, but such a trend has not been detected in late snowmelt places. this indicates that the warming effect on snowmelt pattern may be site specific. flowering phenology of fellfield plants in an exposed wind-blown habitat was consistent between unusually warm year (1998) and normal year (2001). in contrast, flowering occurrence of snowbed plants varied greatly between the years depending on the snowmelt time. the number of flowering species in a fellfield community was large in the middle to late june and the middle to late july. flowering of an early-melt snowbed community showed a peak in the middle of flowering season, and that of a late-melt snowbed community showed a peak in early flowering season. these habitat-specific phenological patterns were consistent between 1998 and 2001. effects of the variation in flowering timing on seed-set success were evaluated for an entomophilous snowbed herb, peucedanum multivittatum along the snowmelt gradient during five years. when flowering occurred prior to early august, mean temperature during the flowering season positively influenced the seed set. when flowering occurred later than early august, however, plants enjoyed high seed-set success irrespective of temperature conditions if frost damage was absent. this is probably because the availability of pollinators depends not only on ambient temperature but also on seasonal progress. these results suggest that the effects of climate change on biological interaction may vary depending on habitat in the alpine ecosystem in which diverse snowmelt patterns create complicated seasonality for plants within a local area.
How are the Empirical Analysis Climate effects on wheat yields analyzed?
the empirical analysis climate effects on wheat yields are analyzed based on the pearson correlation coefficient between climate variables and wheat yields
How do crop simulation models use daily weather data, and what are they utilized for?
crop simulation models use daily weather data to simulate yearly wheat yields. the results demonstrate that water-limited yields (wheat in europe is generally not irrigated) are clearly negatively related to the aggregated temperature variable in mediterranean regions, and more often positively in temperate regions; contrary to relationships found for actual yields in this study
What does the Pearson correlation coefficient measure?
the pearson correlation coefficient does not measure the extent of the impact but whether or not there is a relationship between yields and climate. it is a simple, straightforward, and appropriate measure for analyzing relationships between two variables
fig. 6. (a) spatial distribution of the variation in farm type yield variability (sd, %), and relationships to average temperature (temp, degc) from 1990-2003. wheat yield variability is similar for different farm types in (b) champagne-ardenne, whereas in (c) emilia-romagna the diversity in wheat yield variability is larger. in (d) champagne-ardenne, standard deviations in the relative wheat yield anomaly for individual years are small (sd 3.7) and regional yield anomalies (from the trend) are significantly different from zero and correlated to temperature, r -0.66 with tempjuly, r -0.44 with temp). however, in (e) emilia-romagna, the standard deviations are large (sd 8.3) and regional yield anomalies are not significantly different from zero and are not significantly correlated to temperature r -0.13 with tempapril, r 0.33 with temp). note, temperatures shown in (d) and (e) refer to the months with the largest negative correlation. the empirical analysis climate effects on wheat yields are analyzed based on the pearson correlation coefficient between climate variables and wheat yields. the pearson correlation coefficient does not measure the extent of the impact but whether or not there is a relationship between yields and climate. it is a simple, straightforward, and appropriate measure for analyzing relationships between two variables. the stronger the relationship, the more yield variability can be attributed to climate variability. yield variability not explained by climate variability, can be attributed to management (e.g., van ittersum et al. 2003). the use of this simple measure can be debated, but it gives first insights into a complex subject. nevertheless, when analyzing complex systems, valid and reliable input data are required. we used climate variables that were aggregated from daily weather data. the validity of using these aggregated climate variables has been tested by comparing results with outputs from a crop simulation model. crop simulation models use daily weather data to simulate yearly wheat yields. the results demonstrate that water-limited yields (wheat in europe is generally not irrigated) are clearly negatively related to the aggregated temperature variable in mediterranean regions, and more often positively in temperate regions; contrary to relationships found for actual yields in this study. so, the impact of higher average temperatures is different from what is expected based on biophysical relationships, compared with what is observed based on interactions between biophysical
Are temperatures rising or falling over time?
as temperatures progressively rise over time, wider variations are imposed to the model productivity parameters
How many impacts of the climate change can we notice ?
we consider here five climate change impacts, related to: agriculture, energy demand, human health, tourism and sea level rise
Is it possible to simulate climate change effects ?
in addition, impacts are simulated by "spreading" the climate change effects over the whole interval 2001-2050
variation in the structure of demand. although demand is typically endogenous in a general equilibrium model, shifting factors can mimic changes in demand not induced by variations in income or prices. in this way, it is possible to simulate: changing energy demand for heating and cooling, changing expenditure on medical services, changing demand for services generated by tourists, etc. comparative static cge models can usefully highlight the structural adjustments triggered by climate change impacts, by contrasting a baseline equilibrium at some reference year with a counterfactual one, obtained by shocking a set of parameters. in a dynamic model like ices, parameters are varied in a similar way, but in each period of the sequence of temporary equilibria. we run the model at yearly time steps from 2001 to 2050. in each period, the model solve for a general equilibrium state, in which capital and debt stocks are "inherited" from the previous period, and exogenous dynamics is introduced through changes in primary resources and population. in addition, impacts are simulated by "spreading" the climate change effects over the whole interval 2001-2050. for example, changes in crop productivity are related to changes in temperatures and precipitation. as temperatures progressively rise over time, wider variations are imposed to the model productivity parameters. in this way, the model generate two sets of results: a baseline growth path for the world economy, in which climate change impacts are ignored, and a counterfactual scenario, in which climate change impacts are simulated. the latter scenario differs from the basic one, not only because of the climate shocks, but also because exogenous and endogenous dynamics interact, and climate change ultimately affect capital and foreign debt accumulation. we consider here five climate change impacts, related to: agriculture, energy demand, human health, tourism and sea level rise. in all cases, we adapt for the dynamic model some input data previously used in static cge models. agricultural impact estimates are based on tol (2002) who extrapolated changes in specific yields for some scenarios of climate change and temperature increase.
Building community resilience through the expansion of the networks of dependence and engagement facilitates what type of engagement?
learning-based management
What is an example of a mechanism needed to evolve through new institutions for resource management through collective action?
building community resilience through the expansion of the networks
How do societies dependant on resources adapt to climate changes?
strengthening their spaces of dependence to spread the risks associated with individual events
the mechanisms for enhancing social and ecological resilience are often inherent in the communities and co-management institutions coping with environmental change. in other cases, mechanisms need to evolve through new institutions for resource management through collective action. building community resilience through the expansion of the networks of dependence and engagement facilitates this type of learning-based management. the review and evidence from the case presented here suggests a number of ways to build resilience to climate threats. these are to cement localized spaces of dependence, to expand spaces of engagement, and to avoid being tied to specific response paths by implementing flexible learning-based management. those societies dependent on resources that are vulnerable to climate change have, in the past, adapted to change through strengthening their spaces of dependence to spread the risks associated with individual events. in parallel, they have expanded their spaces of engagement to enable them to find a wider support network, for example, in the form of interaction with regional or national government or international agencies. social resilience in this context appears to be promoted through at least two distinct forms of cross-scale interaction:
write about The distribution of the net cloud radiative forcing?
the distribution of the net cloud radiative forcing is compared to the data of the earth radiation budget experiment (erbe, barkstrom 1984 on the right panels of fig. 3
What will be the  overestimate of the longwave radiative forcing by high clouds?
the strong positive bias on the west tropical pacific ocean in the winter hemisphere and over sahara is due to an overestimate of the longwave radiative forcing by high clouds
what will be the  underestimate of the shortwave cloud radiative forcing?
the negative radiative forcing is also not strong enough over the regions of tropical rainfall on continents, due to an underestimate of the shortwave cloud radiative forcing
the distribution of the net cloud radiative forcing is compared to the data of the earth radiation budget experiment (erbe, barkstrom 1984 on the right panels of fig. 3 the strong positive bias on the west tropical pacific ocean in the winter hemisphere and over sahara is due to an overestimate of the longwave radiative forcing by high clouds. the negative radiative forcing is also not strong enough over the regions of tropical rainfall on continents, due to an underestimate of the shortwave cloud radiative forcing. this bias is partly explained over south america by the underestimate of the convective activity itself (and associated rainfall). one can notice a good representation of the seasonal cycle of cloud forcing (by strato-cumulus clouds) on the east side of oceanic basins (with a maximum in local summer) and a good longitudinal contrast over oceans (especially for the summer hemisphere). 3.3 mid-latitudes 3.3.1 steady and transient planetary waves for conciseness, and because the variability is largest during winter, we show results for december-january- february in the northern hemisphere and june-july- august in the southern hemisphere. for the northern hemisphere, the averaged geopotential at 700 hpa, z700 (fig. 4 a), presents two major troughs at the east coasts of america and asia,
Where do SOAs derive from?
both natural and anthropogenic sources
What are examples of biogenic sources of volatile organic compounds (BVOCs)?
isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes
What do biogenic sources of volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) dominate?
the soa budget simulated in models
soas derive from both natural and anthropogenic sources. because of our poor understanding of these aerosols, we discuss both natural and anthropogenic secondary organic aerosols together in one section. biogenic sources of volatile organic compounds (bvocs), such as isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes, dominate the soa budget simulated in models, based on laboratory yields (194), and are compared to anthropogenic soa precursors (aromatics, alkanes, and alkenes). however, the oxidation of intermediate volatility compounds, which are traditionally not included in global models, may be an important additional source of soa mass (195). the climate impact of soas is difficult to assess given our poor understanding of the formation and removal processes that control the present-day atmospheric loading of these particles table 2 and 3 figure 6 supplemental discussion) (196). estimating the response of the biosphere to changes in climate and atmospheric composition and the resulting feedback on soa
do low-income countries have disaster insurance
99% of households and businesses in low-income countries do not have disaster insurance
how is housing in a climate changed world affecting developed countries
the housing issue (eg, aff ordability and availability) is aggravated both in developed and developing countries
which poor people are more affected by climate change
poor people living in urban areas are more susceptible to increasing frequency and intensity of climate change
those settlements with little economic diversifi cation-- where most income comes from climate-sensitive primary resource industries such as agriculture, forestry, and fi sheries--are more vulnerable than diversifi ed settlements. 99% of households and businesses in low-income countries do not have disaster insurance.129 as climate change intensifi es, the housing issue (eg, aff ordability and availability) is aggravated both in developed and developing countries, mostly aff ecting poor people. with half of the population of urban centres in low-income countries lacking piped water, waste collection, paved roads, sewers, and storm drains, their vulnerability has not been reduced by existing mechanisms that focus on social and economic development.73 with persistent vulnerability, poor people living in urban areas are more susceptible to increasing frequency and intensity of climate change.
In what settling do particles agglomerate themselves?
in flocculent settling, the particles agglomerate themselves and form flocs that tend to grow in size while settling
What is increased with the increase in the size of the particles (flocs)?
with the increase in the size of the particles (flocs), there is an increase in the settling velocity
What happens when the flocculation is increased?
as a result, the removal efficiency in flocculent settling is increased with an increase in the depth h and in the time t (differently from discrete settling
in flocculent settling, the particles agglomerate themselves and form flocs that tend to grow in size while settling. with the increase in the size of the particles (flocs), there is an increase in the settling velocity. therefore, in flocculent settling the velocity is not constant as in discrete settling, but tends to increase. figures 10.11 and 10.12 show the floc formation process and the increase in the settling velocity in a horizontal flow tank (figure 10.11) and in a settling column (figure 10.12). since the flocculation occurs while the particles go to the bottom, the greater the chance of contact they have, the greater will be the floc formation. as a result, the removal efficiency in flocculent settling is increased with an increase in the depth h and in the time t (differently from discrete settling). similarly to discrete settling, flocculent settling in an ideal horizontal flow tank can be compared with settling in a column without flow. in the case of flocculent settling, the settling velocity of the individual particles is not analysed, as in the case of discrete settling. settling column tests are also 434 basic principles of wastewater treatment
What are the three different counts of the model?
renewable energy financial incentives, energy efficiency financial incentives, and energy rules and regulations
How many states were used/considered?
with only 48 states to consider
What two things can this model be estimated as?
this model can be estimated as a negative binomial count model or as an ordinary least squares (ols) regression
this model can be estimated as a negative binomial count model or as an ordinary least squares (ols) regression. because the counts range from two programs in a state to 30 programs in a state, it may not be necessary to use a count model. in addition, with only 48 states to consider, ols offers a variety of benefits over maximum likelihood regression, because of the large-n assumptions required of maximum likelihood. because mle is only asymptotically unbiased, a sample size of 48 with seven regressors is not likely sufficient. instead, however, i use bootstrapping, a resampling method that allows for consistent, unbiased parameter estimates for mle from a small sample (mooney duval, 1993). i estimated the model with both an ols and a bootstrapped negative binomial specification, generating similar results. in addition, two specifications of each estimation technique are presented in table 2 in order to demonstrate the effects of creating a renewables index from the solar density and wind potential variables by adding the z-scores of each of the state's solar densities and wind potentials. because the dependent variable is a sum of three different counts, it is necessary to check the robustness of the model for each of the three types of state energy programs or regulations. i ran bootstrapped negative binomial models for each of the three different counts: renewable energy financial incentives, energy efficiency financial incentives, and energy rules and regulations. i dropped wind potential and solar potential as explanatory variables for energy efficiency financial
Online survey including a short template for information about suggested case studies, which was emailed to?
grabs project partners, international, national and regional stakeholder networks of the university of manchester, the town and country planning association, commission for architecture and the built environment and the uk climate impacts programme
What helped to gather basic information about potential case studies?
desk based review of existing case study databases and contacts with relevant stakeholder networks
What exchanges with the individuals involved in the process of development of adaptation responses linked to the selected case studies?
interviews and email exchanges
the data to populate this case study database has been collected via a number of methods: * desk based review of existing case study databases and contacts with relevant stakeholder networks. this helped to gather basic information about potential case studies. * interviews and email exchanges with the individuals involved in the process of development of adaptation responses linked to the selected case studies. this provided in-depth knowledge about the adaptation initiatives and helped to identify key learning points. * online survey including a short template for information about suggested case studies, which was emailed to the grabs project partners, international, national and regional stakeholder networks of the university of manchester, the town and country planning association, commission for architecture and the built environment and the uk climate impacts programme. many of the case studies included in appendix 1 were provided by survey respondents.
How has water demand reduction been advocated? As a way to reduce the vulnerability of managed water systems to climate change
reducing the demand for water has been advocated as a way to reduce the vulnerability of managed water systems to climate change
What is the role of water demand management? It is a strategy for better use of water
water-demand management is a strategy to make better use of water, reducing waste and increasing economic efficiency
What is the purpose of demand side management? Balances water demands with limited supplies available
demand-side management balances water demands with limited available supplies by having a more efficient allocation of existing supplies
reducing the demand for water has been advocated as a way to reduce the vulnerability of managed water systems to climate change (bates and others, 2008). water-demand management is a strategy to make better use of water, reducing waste and increasing economic efficiency. however, waterdemand management is largely a state and local responsibility; the federal role is constrained by congressional authorization. demand-side management balances water demands with limited available supplies by having a more efficient allocation of existing supplies. water that is saved reduces the need for costly infrastructure. one adaptation strategy is to enhance mechanisms for market-based transfers of water among uses. climate change and shifting patterns of demand may increase market pressures that today are moving water from one use to another. increased use of voluntary water leasing, water banks, and water markets can increase the opportunity for water rights holders to shift water among users. transfers can either be permanent by purchasing water rights or temporary by having contracts to purchase water during dry years. markets and higher prices provide an incentive to adopt water conservation, particularly during periods of limited supply and drought. another strategy is to reduce overall water consumption through conservation and efficiency improvements. municipal water utilities can encourage water conservation by individual metering and pricing. the agricultural sector can reduce water consumption by changing the selection of crops and irrigation methods and by adopting technological innovations such as drought-resistant plant varieties. most measures to reduce demand are implemented at the local level or by individual producers and households. the water-management agencies can continue to promote wateruse efficiency in several sectors, as well in their own operations and water delivery systems. the federal government can encourage water markets and water transfers by removing regulatory restrictions or by providing incentives. more efficient intergovernmental collaboration and coordination among federal, state, regional, and local agencies will facilitate the flow of data and information and improve water resources planning. the federal government also has a lead role in research that produces technological advances that can reduce water use per capita. as noted earlier, population growth in semiarid regions of the country has increased the demand for limited water supplies and has heightened vulnerability to drought. more population in flood plains and coastal areas has increased flood risk and has increased public demand for flood-risk-reduction measures. land-use planning and zoning regulations can be used by state and local governments to limit development in vulnerable regions. the federal government can influence flood-plain requirements through the national flood insurance program, but it generally has limited authority over land-use planning decisions.
Why detailed predictive skill beyond a few seasons is not yet a reality?
because of the long timescales involved, it is impractical to directly assess the skill of multidecadal climate forecasts (in contrast with short-term weather forecasting) leaving us to rely on indirect methods
What is clear despite strenuous efforts?
finally, despite strenuous efforts, it is clear that current models and simulations capture only a subset of our scientific uncertainty about how the climate system works (and how to encapsulate our understanding in a model
Why we do not yet have the scientific understanding to convincingly measure climate model skill in the way described?
because future climate will be a not-yet-experienced state of the earth system, it may ultimately be impossible to a priori calibrate a given climate model in such a way as to ensure that it will produce a meaningful long-term forecast
furthermore, detailed predictive skill beyond a few seasons is not yet a reality.39-41because of the long timescales involved, it is impractical to directly assess the skill of multidecadal climate forecasts (in contrast with short-term weather forecasting) leaving us to rely on indirect methods.42,43however, we do not yet have the scientific understanding to convincingly measure climate model skill this way. because future climate will be a not-yet-experienced state of the earth system, it may ultimately be impossible to a priori calibrate a given climate model in such a way as to ensure that it will produce a meaningful long-term forecast.43-49we lack a generally accepted set of metrics for evaluating climate model performance, either in general or in a sector-specific50way. the aspects of observed climate that must be simulated correctly to ensure reliable future forecasts are not known; agreement across a collection of models does not provide a rigorous basis for assessing how much we should believe a future prediction either.14,42,43,51-56(it is important to note that the obstacles to skillful prediction on shorter timescales--say, a decade--are likely not nearly as great, as discussed extensively elsewhere37,57but these efforts are still in their infancy.) finally, despite strenuous efforts, it is clear that current models and simulations capture only a subset of our scientific uncertainty about how the climate system works (and how to encapsulate our understanding in a model).22,37,58-63so far, the more model variants we create, the more complexity we add, and the more simulations we carry out, the greater the range of scientifically justifiable future climates (and the corresponding range of societal outcomes64) that result.
What percentage of greenhouse gasses does the UK produce?
the uk, for instance, produces around 3% of greenhouse gas emissions
What percentage of greenhouse gasses does the USA produce?
the figure for the usa, which generates 25% of all greenhouse gases
How much do rich countries spend subsidizing fossil fuel industries per anum?
they cite the fact that rich countries spend around ps 50 billion a year subsidizing fossil fuel industries
the foundation suggested that the geneva convention should be expanded to include those displaced by environmental degradation. they argue that, despite widespread denials of liability, where countries continue to pollute when they are fully aware of the damaging consequences, they should be made to reflect their liability by taking in climate refugees. to disregard knowledge should be classed as intentional behaviour, and could be considered as environmental persecution. environmental refugees currently outnumber those fleeing from war, political or religious persecution and could reach 20 million people a year. the number of refugees taken in, they suggest, should be proportional to the amount of pollution a country generates. the uk, for instance, produces around 3% of greenhouse gas emissions and of the 20 million refugees created a year they should be liable to take in 300 000. the figure for the usa, which generates 25% of all greenhouse gases, would be 5 million refugees a year. they cite the fact that rich countries spend around ps 50 billion a year subsidizing fossil fuel industries but around ps 300 000 helping poor countries manage their emissions and adapt to climate change. the idea that the impacts and severity of climate change could, over the coming decades, become the subject of international litigation is interesting; that the polluters will have to pay could add billions to the budgets of countries as they face the challenges of footing the bill for climate change in the future. but it is also within countries that the issue of responsibility for paying for climate change impacts becomes critical. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Are the individuals in the modern days connected with their natural environment?
individuals in modern, heavily urbanized society live largely disconnected from their natural environment
What is the percentage of people outside?
a 'human activity pattern' survey conducted of the american public in the late 1990s illustrated that 51% of the population spent no time outside in a normal day at all
What is the traditional knowledge about the climate change?
 traditional knowledge about peoples' environment including weather and climate suggests not only that knowledge passed down through generations is still used today but that it can complement scientific knowledge and potentially help to adapt to faster changes than would be associated with variability alone
individuals in modern, heavily urbanized society live largely disconnected from their natural environment. a 'human activity pattern' survey conducted of the american public in the late 1990s illustrated that 51% of the population spent no time outside in a normal day at all (except maybe for the short walk from the house to the car to the office and back), and another 30% spent under one hour per day outside.109,110such modern lifestyles essentially disconnect individuals from directly experiencing changes in the environment and instead make them completely dependent on mediated information about nature and climate change (e.g., the news, tv documentaries, or stories others tell). by contrast, those working directly on the land (or sea) and with natural resources, and particularly many traditional societies, are still immersed in their natural surroundings and in fact dependent on subsistence from the land and its resources. thus, their direct experience and knowledge of the environment can be expected to be quite different from that of urban dwellers. traditional ecological knowledge has been defined as a 'cumulative body of knowledge, practice, and belief, evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission, about the relationship of living beings (including humans) with one another and with their environment'111(p. 1252). traditional knowledge about peoples' environment including weather and climate suggests not only that knowledge passed down through generations is still used today but that it can complement scientific knowledge and potentially help to adapt to faster changes than would be associated with variability alone. research in uganda, for example, points to a differentiated and dynamic system of local climate knowledge that is open to new information112and similar results emerge from indigenous australians78and traditional peoples in the high arctic.113the authors argue that the system could be used to inform climate science because of its spatial scale and practicality.112
there is a balance between which two?.
there is a balance between the sources of consumption and the sources of production of oxygen
When the consumption rate is higher than the production rate, what will happen to the oxygen?
when the consumption rate is higher than the production rate, the oxygen concentration tends to decrease, the opposite occurring when the consumption rate is lower than the production rate
The mechanisms listed in Table 3.1 are associated with which process?
the mechanisms listed in table 3.1 are associated with conversion processes
in the self-purification process there is a balance between the sources of consumption and the sources of production of oxygen. when the consumption rate is higher than the production rate, the oxygen concentration tends to decrease, the opposite occurring when the consumption rate is lower than the production rate. the main interacting mechanisms in the do balance in a water body can be found in figure 3.2 and table 3.1. in general, the concentrations of the constituents (such as do) in a water body change as a result of physical processes of advection (transportation by the water as it flows in the river channel) and dispersion (transportation due to turbulence and molecular diffusion) and biochemical and physical processes of conversion (reaction) (fig. 3.3). the processes take place in the three dimensions of the water body, although in rivers the longitudinal axis (x) is the prevailing one. the mechanisms listed in table 3.1 are associated with conversion processes. changes of concentration with time advection transport of the constituent in the velocity field of the fluid medium dispersion turbulence and diffusion spread particles of the constituent conversion biological, chemical and physical reactions impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 87
What does this section provide?
this section provides an overview of the results from the five agcms
What is the main focus of this section?
the main focus here is on the annual mean response over the united states to the pacific sst anomaly pattern
What do the AMIP runs provide?
the amip runs, however, provide a cleaner, more direct comparison with observations than the control run, and therefore provide a more useful baseline assessment of model performance
this section provides an overview of the results from the five agcms. results from the coupled model (ccsm3.0) will be reported in a separate paper. the main focus here is on the annual mean response over the united states to the pacific sst anomaly pattern. additional diagnostics are presented that summarize the results from all eight combinations of the pacific and atlantic forcings shown in table 1, as well as provide some assessment of the seasonality of the responses. the section ends with a brief overview of the responses to the trend pattern. we begin by examining the ability of the agcms to reproduce the observed annual mean precipitation and height field climatologies based on the available amipstyle simulations (runs forced with observed ssts) from each model for the period of 1980-98. we note that the results from the amip runs are quite similar to those from the control runs (pnan; see table 1, not shown). the amip runs, however, provide a cleaner, more direct comparison with observations than the control run, and therefore provide a more useful baseline assessment of model performance.
What conditions do Aedes eggs need in order to hatch??
eggs need to be flooded to hatch. heavy rainfall results in a massive hatching episode and, consequently, the development of a large vector population
What are the three fundamental components that global warming is affecting??
climate changes may affect the three fundamental components of the epidemiological cycle of rvf, namely: vectors, hosts and virus
What weather condition is in correlation to East Africa's heavy rainfall?
east africa, outbreaks were clearly correlated with the unusual heavy rainfall associated with el nino (21
climate changes may affect the three fundamental components of the epidemiological cycle of rvf, namely: vectors, hosts and virus. the consequences of global warming on vectors, in particular, may be many. the hatching dynamic of aedes mosquitoes, the main reservoir of rvf in africa, strongly depends on the rainfall pattern (27). aedes females lay eggs in pond mud. although these eggs become desiccated when ponds dry up, they remain viable for several years or even decades in the dry mud. the ovaries and ovarian ducts in a mosquito infected with rvf can transmit the virus to the nascent eggs. when infected via transovarial transmission, eggs allow the virus to persist in the field during dry and/or inter-epizootic periods. eggs need to be flooded to hatch. heavy rainfall results in a massive hatching episode and, consequently, the development of a large vector population. then, once infection has been amplified in livestock, secondary vectors such as culex and anopheles spp., which breed in semi-permanent pools of water, become involved in the transmission of the virus. in east africa, outbreaks were clearly correlated with the unusual heavy rainfall associated with el nino (21), which consequently flooded many aedes breeding habitats. el nino-southern oscillation events are a combined oceanatmosphere phenomenon, involving changes in the temperatures of surface waters in the tropical pacific and in its closely linked atmospheric counterpart, the southern oscillation. el nino-southern oscillation events involve a large exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere, and affect: - global mean temperature - trade winds
Who were forced to move toward a strategy of accommodation after a series of strategic miscalculations?
fossil fuel companies, after a series of strategic miscalculations, were forced to move toward a strategy of accommodation, or 'passive revolution
In what year did the USA pull out of the Kyoto Protocol?
it is somewhat ironic that the new bush administration in the usa pulled out of the kyoto protocol in 2001
What is moving forward even without the participation of the USA?
however, the kyoto process appears to be moving forward even without the participation of the usa, and in july 2001, 178 countries agreed to implementation measures
corporate political strategy 825 of political struggles over climate science and economics, and the ultimate weakness of 'astroturf' strategies on the part of industry. the framework also provides insight into the dynamics of the climate change issue-level organizational field. even in the absence of external shocks, a number of developments in the economic, discursive, and organizational realms moved the field out of alignment and opened up tensions in the historical bloc. fossil fuel companies, after a series of strategic miscalculations, were forced to move toward a strategy of accommodation, or 'passive revolution'. actors supportive of emission controls were able to manoeuvre deftly through the complex terrain of the international negotiations and construct a coalition whose interests were sufficiently articulated on economic and discursive levels and which could present a sense of moral and intellectual leadership. the specific contours of the emerging climate regime, which provides for modest emission cuts but secures the broader hegemonic position of affected industries, can be understood in terms of the historical process of reconfiguring an unstable bloc. it is somewhat ironic that the new bush administration in the usa pulled out of the kyoto protocol in 2001, just as much of american industry appeared willing to acommodate mandatory international emission controls. the bush adrninistration, of course, has particularly strong ties to the oil industry (democratic policy committee, 2001) and, at first glance, the new us position provides evidence of direct, instrumental corporate power rather than the gramscian concept of negotiated hegemony. indeed, even before the accession of bush to the white house, an anonymous oil industry source interpreted the disbanding of the gcc in its traditional form not as a failure but rather as a case of 'mission accomplished; now we can avoid the political cost of membership'. however, the kyoto process appears to be moving forward even without the participation of the usa, and in july 2001, 178 countries agreed to implementation measures. even in the
What is the Nile Delta?
the nile delta is a highly fertile flood plain that supports a very large population with densities as high as 1600 inhabitants per square kilometre
Where are one third of Egypt's fish catches made?
one third of egypt's fish catches are made in the lagoons
What impact would rising sea levels have on the sand belt and why is this a problem?
rising sea levels would destroy weak parts of the sand belt, which is essential for the protection of lagoons and the low-lying reclaimed lands
the nile delta is a highly fertile flood plain that supports a very large population with densities as high as 1600 inhabitants per square kilometre. deserts surround the low-lying, fertile floodplains. most of a 50 km wide land strip along the coast is less than 2 m above sea level and is only protected from flooding by a 1 to 10 km wide coastal sand belt, shaped by the discharge of the rosetta and damietta branches of the nile. erosion of the protective sand belt is a serious problem and has accelerated since the construction of the aswan dam. rising sea levels would destroy weak parts of the sand belt, which is essential for the protection of lagoons and the low-lying reclaimed lands. the impact would be very serious. one third of egypt's fish catches are made in the lagoons. sea level rise would change the water quality and affect most fresh water fish. valuable agricultural land would be inundated. vital, low-lying installations in alexandria and port said would be threatened. recreational tourism beach facilities would be endangered and essential groundwater would become salinated. dykes and protective measurements would probably prevent the worst flooding up to a 50 cm sea level rise. however, it would cause considerable groundwater salination and the impact of increasing wave action would be very damaging.
Why is the GCM downscaled?
gcm output is still not at a fine enough resolution to enable it to be used directly by most impacts researchers
What are the required consideration for downscaling?
this downscaling requires considerable time, and may introduce additional sources of error and uncertainty
On what things the on going studies focus on?
there are also a number of recent and ongoing studies that focus on manipulating scenario data to build datasets of projections for specific regions or sectors in canada
in addition, gcm output is still not at a fine enough resolution to enable it to be used directly by most impacts researchers. therefore, gcm data are generally downscaled to produce gridded datasets of higher spatial resolution. this downscaling requires considerable time, and may introduce additional sources of error and uncertainty. developments are currently under way, however, to improve model resolution and better represent land-surface conditions. there are also a number of recent and ongoing studies that focus on manipulating scenario data to build datasets of projections for specific regions or sectors in canada (seetable 3). the results of these studies will be useful for the impacts and adaptation research community.
What is Diapause?
a genetically programmed pre-emptive developmental response to changing seasons and environmental conditions
When does the diapause stage occur?
at any stage in the life cycle
What is CDL?
critical day length
diapause is a genetically programmed pre-emptive developmental response to changing seasons and environmental conditions. it is an environmentally adaptive dormancy that can occur during any stage of development (egg, larva, pupa or adult) but the diapausing stage is consistent and specific within a species. diapause is distinct from quiescence, which can occur at any stage in the life cycle and represents an immediate response to stress. most commonly, insects have a facultative diapause, in which there is a developmental stage that is responsive to specific environmental 'cues' (the sensitive stage) that programme the diapause. thus, the sensitive stage makes the 'physiological decision' to either diapause or delay entry into diapause for another generation (tauber et al., 1986; denlinger, 2002). species having an obligate diapause arrest development at the same developmental stage every generation regardless of prevailing environmental conditions. however, the exact seasonal timing of diapause initiation can vary from year to year, and between locations, because of differences in thermal developmental budgets, e.g. in the spruce budworm choristoneura fumiferana (clem.) (han and bauce, 1998). in both the facultative and obligatory response, diapause represents an alternative developmental pathway, initiated by unique patterns of gene expression, which allows insects to survive seasonally recurring chronic forms of environmental stress, and to coordinate growth, development and reproduction with annual cycles of favourable environmental conditions (denlinger, 2002). both obligate and facultative diapause are likely to be affected by climate change but this review will primarily focus on facultative diapause. in temperate and polar zones, i.e. above 30degn latitude, day length is the primary cue programming diapause. this represents a strong, noise-free indicator of the changing seasons, and has remained highly reliable over evolutionary time. patterns of day length change will of course remain unaffected by climate change but their effectiveness as an indicator of seasonal changes in temperature may diminish. for each species of insect there is a critical day length (cdl), which will programme the diapause response. this is designated as the photoperiod that induces a 50% incidence of diapause, and changes with latitude, e.g. the cdl of the blow fly calliphora vicina (r-d) at 65degn is 16.5  h whereas at 51degn it is 14.5  h (mcwatters and saunders, 1996). this represents an adaptation to the fact that winter occurs earlier, and more rapidly, at higher latitudes, and small changes in photoperiod either side of the cdl produce a dramatic shift in diapause incidence (fig.  4). low temperature can enhance the diapause response (greater incidence and longer duration) but temperature by itself does not typically induce diapause. the adaptive significance of this seasonal response to changing day length, termed photoperiodism, lies in the anticipatory nature of switching off development and reproduction in preparation for winter, even when the immediate conditions may be favourable (bradshaw and holzapfel, 2010). thus, diapause is a pivotal point in the life cycle of insects and crucial to the survival of seasonal adversity. furthermore, given the diverse roles insects play in ecosystem function, many other processes are synchronous with the diapause programme (plant consumption/pollination, predator-prey interactions, etc.). consequently, any disruption of diapause as a result of climate change could have profound effects on ecosystem stability.
According to the text what considered as important in the implementation of the distance-based velocity algorithm?
an important decision for the implementation of the distance-based velocity algorithm is the threshold of what constitutes a matching climate between a current cell and a nearby grid cell that has a similar value in the future
In case of precise measurment,  is there an effect of the climate on the cells.
given enough precision in measurements, no two grid cells will have the same climate value, and this becomes obvious when matching cells in multivariate climate space
What is the common result found in both Loarieâ€™s slope method and the distance-based method?
for both loarie's slope method and the distance-based method proposed in this paper, median velocities increase in the same monotonic fashion (fig. 3
an important decision for the implementation of the distance-based velocity algorithm is the threshold of what constitutes a matching climate between a current cell and a nearby grid cell that has a similar value in the future. given enough precision in measurements, no two grid cells will have the same climate value, and this becomes obvious when matching cells in multivariate climate space. this decision could be informed by biological data, for example, if the climate tolerances of an organism are known. however, for a general landscape analysis we find it useful to set the threshold as small as possible while avoiding artefacts due to using excessive precision (fig. 2a). generally, the required migration distances increase linearly and monotonically with smaller thresholds, but beyond a certain point velocities increase rapidly driven by more random climate matches. for example, if the algorithm has to search for a climate match to a present cell with a value of 5.36 deg c, and the value of a nearby future climate cell of 5.32 deg c is rejected, then large and small distances start to occur by random chance and the resulting surfaces become noisy (fig. 2a, left inset). in the example shown in fig. 2, a good threshold would be  0.2 deg c. the resulting maps of velocity equal or higher to this value remain very robust, until the threshold exceeds the warming signal so that the required migration distance is by definition zero. another factor that influences the velocity estimates, and that depends on user choices is the spatial resolution of the gridded climate data. for both loarie's slope method and the distance-based method proposed in this paper, median velocities increase in the same monotonic fashion (fig. 3). maximum velocities for the distance-based method are not resolution dependent, while they decrease substantially for the slope-based method. the decrease in the slope-based method arises from the fact that at coarser resolutions it becomes less likely that surrounding cells all have the same elevation and temperature values, and therefore yield very high velocity estimates. conversely, the distance-based method shows stronger resolution dependence for the minimum distance. this is due to the minimum velocity value being restricted by the distance to the nearest neighbour grid cell. we therefore recommend use of gridded data with as high resolution as is computationally feasible and justifiable based on the precision of interpolated climate grids.
what do traditional hydrological frequencies not account for?
traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods do not account for year to year shifts in flood risk distributions that arise due to changes in exogenous factors that affect the causal structure of flood risk
What do we use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for?
we use hierarchical bayesian analysis to evaluate several factors that influence the frequency of extreme floods for a basin in montana
What estimates the parameters of the flood risk prediction model?
the parameters of the flood risk prediction model are estimated using a markov chain monte carlo algorithm
it is widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events. traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods do not account for year to year shifts in flood risk distributions that arise due to changes in exogenous factors that affect the causal structure of flood risk. we use hierarchical bayesian analysis to evaluate several factors that influence the frequency of extreme floods for a basin in montana. sea surface temperatures, predicted gcm precipitation, climate indices and snow pack depth are considered as potential predictors of flood risk. the parameters of the flood risk prediction model are estimated using a markov chain monte carlo algorithm. the predictors are compared in terms of the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters that are used to estimate flood frequency distributions. the analysis shows an approach for exploiting the link between climate scale indicators and annual maximum flood, providing impetus for developing seasonal forecasting of flood risk applications and dynamic flood risk management strategies. citation: kwon, h.-h., c. brown, and u. lall (2008), climate informed flood frequency analysis and prediction in montana using hierarchical bayesian modeling, geophys. res. lett. 35 l05404, doi:10.1029/ 2007gl032220.
What do international priorities for food issues related to climate change include?
international priorities for food issues related to climate change include: willingness to ensure fairly distributed global food security, better use of local resources, preservation of sustainable ecosystems that provide local sources of nourishment, and revision of disasterrelief eff orts from emergency food distribution to long-term capacity rebuilding after climate-related natural disasters
What must food aid be coupled with?
food aid must be coupled with forms of sustainable reconstruction that are less formulaic and more locally sensitive
What might have an effect on disease burdens?
social programmes that educate consumers about healthy diets and that try to limit the eff ects of unhealthy food might have an eff ect on disease burdens
international priorities for food issues related to climate change include: willingness to ensure fairly distributed global food security, better use of local resources, preservation of sustainable ecosystems that provide local sources of nourishment, and revision of disasterrelief eff orts from emergency food distribution to long-term capacity rebuilding after climate-related natural disasters. however, we focus more on immediate eff ects of disasters than on improvement of local and sustainable forms of food production before and after a disaster. a shift is needed from disaster response to risk reduction where the capacities of local populations are strengthened to anticipate and plan for risks ahead of their occurrence. food aid must be coupled with forms of sustainable reconstruction that are less formulaic and more locally sensitive. often, food distribution creates dependencies without being coupled with locally relevant forms of reconstruction. aid organisations that partly or completely withdraw food aid once a disaster setting has been identifi ed as in recovery phase must rethink how the desperation of now-dependent groups is increased when food aid is withdrawn or fought over in resettlement camps. social programmes that educate consumers about healthy diets and that try to limit the eff ects of unhealthy food might have an eff ect on disease burdens. nevertheless, such burdens are mainly carried by poor people who are likely to face severe constraints to access high-quality food or to modify their food choices. building local social capital around food supply is a major challenge. more attention needs to be given to the global agrifood system, to the added value of industrial processing, refi ning, and sweetening, and the economies of scale created by multinational and transnational operations. local food movement might only come when the crisis has deepened. a generalised reorientation to locally sourced produce would need both economic change and political intervention. finally, distribution systems that transport food over long distances not only contribute directly to climate change but also might decrease immunity when non-local foods are consumed.140
During which years was the mediate date of hatching from wing-lengths determined?
during 1984-87 we determined median date of hatching from wing-lengths measured
How was the age of each nestling determined?
the age of each nestling was determined from the age/ wing-length relationship derived from measurements of known-age nestlings
How many breeding pairs were used in this study?
in 1988-2003 we determined dates of hatching directly, from observations of about 500 breeding pairs
during 1984-87 we determined median date of hatching from wing-lengths measured on a sample of 100 nestlings measured in early august, after most had hatched but none had departed from the colony. the age of each nestling was determined from the age/ wing-length relationship derived from measurements of known-age nestlings. in 1988-2003 we determined dates of hatching directly, from observations of about 500 breeding pairs of brunnich's guillemots on four or five study plots each year, using methods detailed in birkhead nettleship (1980) and de forest gaston (1996). these two methods for determining median date of hatching yielded estimates differing by no more than 1 day when compared for the years 1988-95 (a.j.g. unpublished data).
What explains the global urbanization trend? Explains the growing interest in the study of urban climate change
the global trend towards urbanisation explains the growing interest in the study of the modification of the urban climate due to the heat island effect and global warming
What is the relevance of Urban Physics? Urban Physics is a well-established discipline that incorporates relevant branches of physics
urban physics is a wellestablished discipline, incorporating relevant branches of physics, environmental chemistry, aerodynamics, meteorology and statistics
Is Urban Physics well organized? Yes,
therefore, urban physics is well positioned to provide keycontributions to the current urban problems and challenges
the global trend towards urbanisation explains the growing interest in the study of the modification of the urban climate due to the heat island effect and global warming, and its impact on energy use of buildings. also urban comfort, health and durability, referring respectively to pedestrian wind/ thermal comfort, pollutant dispersion and wind-driven rain are of interest. urban physics is a wellestablished discipline, incorporating relevant branches of physics, environmental chemistry, aerodynamics, meteorology and statistics. therefore, urban physics is well positioned to provide keycontributions to the current urban problems and challenges. the present paper addresses the role of urban physics in the study of wind comfort, thermal comfort, energy demand, pollutant dispersion and wind-driven rain. furthermore, the three major research methods applied in urban physics, namely field experiments, wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations are discussed. case studies illustrate the current challenges and the relevant contributions of urban physics. 2012. higher education press limited company. production and hosting by elsevier b.v.
in which century scenario #1 assumes that the temperature continues to oscillate around the quadratic fit curve of the 1850-2009 temperature interval?
about the 21stcentury, scenario #1 assumes that the temperature continues to oscillate around the quadratic fit curve of the 1850-2009 temperature interval
How many years oscillating pattern will be showed by Curve 2?
curve #2 shows the 60-year oscillating pattern that the model reconstructs
from which year to which year the alternative fitting functions can be adopted?
the meaning of the quadratic fit forecast should not be mistaken: indeed, alternative fitting functions can be adopted, they would equally well fit the data from 1850 to 2009 but may diverge during the 21st
therefore, the climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing has been severely overestimated by the ipcc by a large factor. about the 21stcentury, scenario #1 assumes that the temperature continues to oscillate around the quadratic fit curve of the 1850-2009 temperature interval. curve #2 shows the 60-year oscillating pattern that the model reconstructs. if the global temperature continues to rise with the same acceleration observed during the period 1850-2009, in 2100 the global temperature will be little bit less than 1oc warmer than in 2009. this estimate is about three times smaller than the average projection of the ipcc [2007]. however, the meaning of the quadratic fit forecast should not be mistaken: indeed, alternative fitting functions can be adopted, they would equally well fit the data from 1850 to 2009 but may diverge during the 21st
Why is verification of indicators important?
conveying authority and credibility to the set of measures, but it also contributes to improving understanding of vulnerability and hence the representation of processes in indicator studies
Describe the Blalock 1984.
the selection of indicators and the measurement process represent a theoretical reasoning and prediction
describe Parry and Carter 1998.
the indicators selected on the basis of the deductive approaches can be tested against measures of adversity evident in the observed outcomes of past climatic events, as analogues of possible future conditions
verification of indicators is an important end in its own right, conveying authority and credibility to the set of measures, but it also contributes to improving understanding of vulnerability and hence the representation of processes in indicator studies. in the case of the deductive approach, verification involves assessment of the goodness of fit between theoretical predictions and empirical evidence. to some extent, this work will have been undertaken before the indicator study was started, as existing theory provides the basis of the deductive approach. but the indictor study then provides a framework for further testing and verification and the further development of the conceptual framework. in the case of the inductive approach, the statistical analysis, if conducted rigorously, must incorporate verification of any results through testing on independent data as an aspect of good practice. having said that, for a variety of reasons, verification has been limited in existing studies of climate vulnerability indicators. the selection of indicators and the measurement process represent a theoretical reasoning and prediction (blalock 1984). the indicators selected on the basis of the deductive approaches can be tested against measures of adversity evident in the observed outcomes of past climatic events, as analogues of possible future conditions (parry and carter 1998). the adversity encountered in connection with a particular event can be measured more or less directly using well-established measures such as death, illness, hunger or loss of property (fivims 2000, brooks and adger 2003), although, as discussed earlier, available national-level data are not unproblematic. such a test is highly context specific, given that the dynamic nature of vulnerability cannot be fully captured by a snapshot in time at a particular point in space. moss et al. (2001) propose that past case studies collectively "provide a benchmark with which to corroborate qualitative assessments of adaptive capacity" (p. 5). parry and carter also suggest that analysis tools can be tested and evaluated through conducting 'microcosm' case studies, small-scale pilot studies under conditions representative of the main study. an example of an indicator study that performs such verification is the heinz center study (2002) of the united states, albeit at county rather than national level. the study provides a conceptual framework of vulnerability and a description of the understanding of vulnerability that underlies the selection of factors for investigation. the list of selected population characteristics influencing social vulnerability is found to explain 80% of variation
What were the factors that prevented simulation of longer periods for the experiments?
the sequence of events shown in fig. 3 is reminiscent of parts of the last glacial period, for example, the time around 45,000 yr before present (45 kyr before present, bp) with do events 13 and 12. but the complexity of the cgaom, the uncertainties in the hysteresis behaviour of the glacial thermohaline circulation and the computational cost of the model prevent us from simulating longer time periods
What does equation (1) show?
however, equation (1) has been shown to adequately relate the polar temperature anomalies simulated by the cgaom and can thus be used as a substitute
Subsequently what is done?
we start from a random time evolution of the freshwater flux f subsequently, f is iteratively
the sequence of events shown in fig. 3 is reminiscent of parts of the last glacial period, for example, the time around 45,000 yr before present (45 kyr before present, bp) with do events 13 and 12. but the complexity of the cgaom, the uncertainties in the hysteresis behaviour of the glacial thermohaline circulation and the computational cost of the model prevent us from simulating longer time periods. however, equation (1) has been shown to adequately relate the polar temperature anomalies simulated by the cgaom and can thus be used as a substitute. here we use the substitute conceptual model to quantify the extent to which the thermal-freshwater seesaw concept can explain the evolution of greenland and antarctic temperature reconstructions, as well as sea-level variations during marine isotope stage (mis) 3. we start from a random time evolution of the freshwater flux f subsequently, f is iteratively
How many male soccer and cricket players were used in this study?
two hundred and sixty-five british adolescent m age 16.44; sd 1.32) male soccer and cricket players participated in this study
Where were the players recruited from?
players were recruited from club or school teams playing in their respective regional leagues
What was the ethnicity of the players?
in terms of ethnic background, 6% reported to be afro-caribbean, 51% white english, 5% mixed ethnic background, and 24% asian
two hundred and sixty-five british adolescent m age 16.44; sd 1.32) male soccer and cricket players participated in this study. players were recruited from club or school teams playing in their respective regional leagues. in terms of ethnic background, 6% reported to be afro-caribbean, 51% white english, 5% mixed ethnic background, and 24% asian. thirty-seven participants did not indicate their ethnic background. as a group, the athletes could be characterized as quite experienced with over 70% reporting that they had played organized soccer or cricket for five years or longer. the length of time playing for their current coach was more varied, however. over 50% reported having played for their current coach for more than one year m 1.5 years, sd 0.5).
What shows promise as a more physical way to diagnose lightning sources of forest fires and related aerosol and greenhouse gas sources in GCMs?
updraft speed shows promise as a more physical way to diagnose lightning sources of forest fires and related aerosol and greenhouse gas sources in gcms than simply using convective cloud top height as a proxy
Can cloud base height and aerosol concentration play a role in the model?
our ability to explain land-ocean differences in convective intensity as a result of thermal structure differences does not imply that other factors such as cloud base height and aerosol concentration do not play a role
a simple diagnosis of cumulus updraft speed that depends only on the large-scale thermodynamic structure reproduces the observed magnitude and land-ocean differences in convective intensity in a gcm. the model predicts more intense convection (by  1 m s 1) in a warmer climate over land. decreases in convection frequency with warming partly offset the effect of stronger convection, but the nonlinear dependence of lightning on updraft speed implies higher flash rates overall. midlatitude severe weather may also not change dramatically, but the most severe storms may occur more often. our ability to explain land-ocean differences in convective intensity as a result of thermal structure differences does not imply that other factors such as cloud base height and aerosol concentration do not play a role. nonetheless, updraft speed shows promise as a more physical way to diagnose lightning sources of forest fires and related aerosol and greenhouse gas sources in gcms than simply using convective cloud top height as a proxy. acknowledgments. this work was supported by the nasa modeling and analysis and precipitation science programs and the doe atmospheric radiation measurement program. ann fridlind, earle williams and another reviewer provided helpful comments.
what are the mediations for job satisfaction measures
a) a substantial reduction of the beta weight of an initially significant climate scale after inclusion of the potential mediator (job satisfaction), and (b) a significant beta coefficient for that mediator i
what difference does a climate scale make in job satisfaction
that the significant contribution of a climate scale should be rendered non-significant after entry of job satisfaction into the equation
it was predicted that employee affect, measured through average overall job satisfaction, would mediate observed associations between company climate and productivity. for all employees (managers and non-managers together), this possibility was first examined in step 3 of the hierarchical multiple regressions summarized in table 2. following baron and kenney (1986), the criteria for mediation by job satisfaction were taken to be (a) a substantial reduction of the beta weight of an initially significant climate scale after inclusion of the potential mediator (job satisfaction), and (b) a significant beta coefficient for that mediator in the final equation. the magnitude of a reduction that is deemed "substantial" appears to be unspecified in the literature, and we set a minimum requirement that the significant contribution of a climate scale should be rendered non-significant after entry of job satisfaction into the equation. in addition, following huselid (1995) we also report the
What results in climatic stress?
people have engaged in longand short-term migration as an adaptive response to climatic stress
What factor decides Human mobility?
human mobility--permanent and temporary, internal and cross border--must be incorporated into rather than excluded from international and national adaptation plans
What measures to be taken in migration?
variety of ways at a number of levels and may include: measures to facilitate and strengthen the benefits of migrant * remittances; the rights-based resettlement of populations living in low* lying coastal areas and small island states.1
recognize and facilitate the role that migration will inevitably play in individual, household and national adaptation strategies. for millennia, people have engaged in longand short-term migration as an adaptive response to climatic stress. millions of individuals and households are employing a variant of this strategy today. human mobility--permanent and temporary, internal and cross border--must be incorporated into rather than excluded from international and national adaptation plans. this can be done in a variety of ways at a number of levels and may include: measures to facilitate and strengthen the benefits of migrant * remittances; the rights-based resettlement of populations living in low* lying coastal areas and small island states.1
What does the predominance of the public sector in delivering adaptation finance stem from?
its long-standing expertise in providing development assistance in areas with relevance to adaptation
What did forty-eight percent of flows through government bodies go towards?
funding adaptation
What did the majority of adaptation support, USD 10 billion or 44%, go towards?
activities related to water supply and management
landscape 2013 identified around usd 20-24 billion, or usd 22 billion on average, going towards activities with adaptation objectives, mostly through international finance invested in developing countries dfis contributed 81% of this amount, while government bodies beyond dfis provided 16% and climate funds 3% the predominance of the public sector in delivering adaptation finance stems from its long-standing expertise in providing development assistance in areas with relevance to adaptation. forty-eight percent of flows through government bodies (see paragraph 3.1.2) went toward funding adaptation. figure 4 provides the breakdown of adaptation finance. the majority of adaptation support, usd 10 billion or 44%, went to activities related to water supply and management, followed by usd 3 billion (16%) that went to agriculture, including livestock and fishing, forestry, land use management, and natural resource management. there is a large knowledge gap about the role of the private sector in financing adaptation due to huge deficiencies in tracking private sector adaptation finance. a number of related qualitative difficulties complicate the issue. for example, there is still little agreement on what qualifies as adaptation finance or, more narrowly, what qualifies as an adaptation intervention. as a result, most institutions do not yet have a proper methodology for measuring adaptation finance, although relevant efforts to establish tracking and reporting approaches are currently underway (see section 3.1.1). thus while studies
Which tree is known for their susceptibility to drought ?
poplars are well known for their susceptibility to drought and are among the most vulnerable trees tested to date
What is considered for evaluating plant water status?
difference in water regimes psp and psm have been considered as good indices for evaluating plant water status 
poplars are well known for their susceptibility to drought and are among the most vulnerable trees tested to date (hacke and sauter 1996). cochard et al. (2007) investigated the differences in drought resistance among some poplar clones, with small differences up to 0.12 mpa. here, we show that the resistance to drought can vary between poplar plants from the same genotype exposed to different water soil availabilities, with differences up to 0.63 mpa. these results suggest that phenotypic plasticity accounts for a large part of the within-species variability for vulnerability to cavitation. the observed acclimation of vulnerability to cavitation to soil water content supports the hypothesis that cavitation resistance is a trait for drought resistance across trees. difference in water regimes psp and psm have been considered as good indices for evaluating plant water status (shackel et al. 1997). the three sets of trees truly underwent three different water regimes because they showed significantly different psp values before watering. control plants kept their psp values constant before and after watering. this indicates that the water availability did not vary for these plants in the course of the experiment. ms plants did not experience water stress, as revealed by the absence of significant difference for psm and for growth between ms and c plants (table 1). however, ms plants probably adjusted their water loss from the leaves without any
Does separating out tropospheric adjustments  have an impact on climate sensitivity?
separating out the tropospheric adjustments does not significantly affect the spread in climate sensitivity estimates, which primarily results from differing climate feedbacks
What does climate sensitivity control in regards to climate change?
as it controls many aspects of climate change, including the response of the hydrological cycle and of regional climate features to anthropogenic activities, climate sensitivity remains a centrally important measure of the size, and
What is climate sensitivity?
the equilibrium global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of co2 concentration in the atmosphere is referred to as climate sensitivity
this study diagnoses the climate sensitivity, radiative forcing and climate feedback estimates from eleven general circulation models participating in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip5), and analyzes inter-model differences. this is done by taking into account the fact that the climate response to increased carbon dioxide (co2) is not necessarily only mediated by surface temperature changes, but can also result from fast land warming and tropospheric adjustments to the co2 radiative forcing. by considering tropospheric adjustments to co2 as part of the forcing rather than as feedbacks, and by using the radiative kernels approach, we decompose climate sensitivity estimates in terms of feedbacks and adjustments associated with water vapor, temperature lapse rate, surface albedo and clouds. cloud adjustment to co2 is, with one exception, generally positive, and is associated with a reduced strength of the cloud feedback; the multi-model mean cloud feedback is about 33 weaker. non-cloud adjustments associated with temperature, water vapor and albedo seem, however, to be better understood as responses to land surface warming. separating out the tropospheric adjustments does not significantly affect the spread in climate sensitivity estimates, which primarily results from differing climate feedbacks. about 70 of the spread stems from the cloud feedback, which remains the major source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, with a large contribution from the tropics. differences in tropical cloud feedbacks between low-sensitivity and high-sensitivity models occur over a large range of dynamical regimes, but primarily arise from the regimes associated with a predominance of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. the combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback also contributes to the spread of climate sensitivity estimates, with inter-model differences arising primarily from the relative humidity responses throughout the troposphere. finally, this study points to a substantial role of nonlinearities in the calculation of adjustments and feedbacks for the interpretation of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity estimates. we show that in climate model simulations with large forcing (e.g., 4 9 co2), nonlinearities cannot be assumed minor nor neglected. having said that, most results presented here are consistent with a number of previous feedback studies, despite the very different nature of the methodologies and all the uncertainties associated with them. keywords climate sensitivity  feedback  radiative forcing  fast adjustment  radiative kernel  cmip5 climate model simulations  climate change  inter-model spread 1 the equilibrium global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of co2 concentration in the atmosphere is referred to as climate sensitivity. as it controls many aspects of climate change, including the response of the hydrological cycle and of regional climate features to anthropogenic activities, climate sensitivity remains a centrally important measure of the size, and
What might be worse than the spatial fragmentation considered in isolation?
but to appreciate this problem fully, we must first say something about the temporal fragmentation of agency. there is some reason to think that this might be worse than the spatial fragmentation even considered in isolation
Spatially fragmented agents may actually become what?
for there is a sense in which temporal fragmentation is more intractable than spatial fragmentation: in principle, spatially fragmented agents may actually become unified and so able really to act as a single agent; but temporally fragmented agents cannot actually become unified, and so may at best only act as if they were a single agent
The problem emerges when one relaxes the assumption that countries can what?
the problem emerges when one relaxes the assumption that countries can be relied upon adequately to represent the interests of both their present and future citizens
these last two points already raise the spectre of institutional inadequacy. but to appreciate this problem fully, we must first say something about the temporal fragmentation of agency. there is some reason to think that this might be worse than the spatial fragmentation even considered in isolation. for there is a sense in which temporal fragmentation is more intractable than spatial fragmentation: in principle, spatially fragmented agents may actually become unified and so able really to act as a single agent; but temporally fragmented agents cannot actually become unified, and so may at best only act as if they were a single agent. interesting as such questions are, they need not detain us here. for temporal fragmentation in the context of the kind of temporal dispersion that characterises climate change is clearly much worse than the associated spatial fragmentation. for the presence of backloading and deferral together brings on a new collective action problem that adds to the tragedy of the commons caused by the global storm, and thereby makes matters much worse. the problem emerges when one relaxes the assumption that countries can be relied upon adequately to represent the interests of both their present and future citizens. suppose that this is not true. suppose instead that countries are biased towards the interests of the current generation. then, since the benefits of carbon dioxide emission are felt primarily by the present generation, in the form of cheap energy, whereas the costs - in the form of the risk of severe and perhaps catastrophic climate change - are substantially deferred to future generations, climate change might provide an instance of a severe intergenerational collective action problem. moreover, this problem will be iterated. each new generation will face the same incentive structure as soon as it gains the power to decide whether or not to act .25
What happens when the ITCZ band migrates toward northern Latitudes?
with the migration of itcz band toward northern latitudes figure 5 ), the reduction in precipitation occurs in the northern part of the continent
Where thence the reduced precipitation extends to?
it extends over central america and caribbean region. while in the eastern pacific, the precipitation band associated with the itcz is displaced southward in all simulations, in the atlantic, the band has moved away from the coast and causes a reduction in the precipitation along the eastern coast of northeast brazil
Where has( in JJA ) the  increased precipitation projected to increase?
in jja, precipitation is projected to increase in southeast south america, but limited to areas near the coastal, and is projected to reduce in southern chile
in winter, in jja, with the migration of itcz band toward northern latitudes figure 5 ), the reduction in precipitation occurs in the northern part of the continent, and it extends over central america and caribbean region. while in the eastern pacific, the precipitation band associated with the itcz is displaced southward in all simulations, in the atlantic, the band has moved away from the coast and causes a reduction in the precipitation along the eastern coast of northeast brazil. in addition, in jja, precipitation is projected to increase in southeast south america, but limited to areas near the coastal, and is projected to reduce in southern chile.
Who is the Director of the Climate Program Office, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
dr. chester koblinsky dr. chester koblinsky is the director of the climate program office, office of oceanic and atmospheric research, national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa
How could he manage  climate research and observation programs of NOAA?
 while at scripps institution of oceanography and later at nasa's goddard space flight center, koblinsky developed satellite-based ocean remote sensing systems, publishing numerous papers on the subject. he also developed new satellite missions, including aquarius, which was aimed at mapping sea surface salt concentration. he has served as adviser to such programs as the world ocean circulation experiment, clivar and the u.s. climate change science program
In which program he served as a advisor?
he has served as adviser to such programs as the world ocean circulation experiment, clivar and the u.s. climate change science program. koblinsky holds a ph.d. in oceanography from oregon state university. dr. julia marton-lefevre dr. julia marton-lefevre became rector of the university for peace, a un treaty organization with its main campus in san jose costa rica, in may 2005
dr. chester koblinsky dr. chester koblinsky is the director of the climate program office, office of oceanic and atmospheric research, national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa). as director, he manages the climate research and observation programs of noaa. while at scripps institution of oceanography and later at nasa's goddard space flight center, koblinsky developed satellite-based ocean remote sensing systems, publishing numerous papers on the subject. he also developed new satellite missions, including aquarius, which was aimed at mapping sea surface salt concentration. he has served as adviser to such programs as the world ocean circulation experiment, clivar and the u.s. climate change science program. koblinsky holds a ph.d. in oceanography from oregon state university. dr. julia marton-lefevre dr. julia marton-lefevre became rector of the university for peace, a un treaty organization with its main campus in san jose costa rica, in may 2005. prior to this position, she was executive director of lead international, based in london. she is also vice chair of the world resources institute and a member of a number of boards and commissions, including: the board of directors of the international institute for environment and development (iied); lead international and the library of alexandria. she serves on environmental advisory boards of the dow chemical company and the cocacola company. she studied history, ecology and environmental planning in the u.s. and in france.
the incremental profit depends on what?
in this condition, the incremental profit depends on the incremental surplus derived by the users of the technology located in country j times a variable which reflects the patent owner's capability of appropriating this surplus, such as the risk of imitation by local competitors given country j 's intellectual property regime, or tariffs (when the technology is embodied in an intermediate good
What is Fijt ?
fijt is the fixed cost of transferring the patented technology in country
What does This variable captures ?
this variable captures the upfront cost of filing a patent or setting up a subsidiary or distribution channel in country
in this condition, the incremental profit depends on the incremental surplus derived by the users of the technology located in country j times a variable which reflects the patent owner's capability of appropriating this surplus, such as the risk of imitation by local competitors given country j 's intellectual property regime, or tariffs (when the technology is embodied in an intermediate good). fijt is the fixed cost of transferring the patented technology in country j this variable captures the upfront cost of filing a patent or setting up a subsidiary or distribution channel in country j at time t we assume that all the technology transfers from country i to country j generate an aggregate surplus
What are the affeted variables?
the relaxation was in data-sparse places and times, and resulted in an absence of any inter-annual variability for the affected variables
What is the reason for duplicaton?
the reason for the duplication was to minimise the effects of relaxation to zero anomalies in the construction of the observed time-series (new et al, 2000
What can we assumed from data sets?
in both data-sets it is assumed that in the absence of radiative forcing, sub-centennial climate variability would be similar from one century to the next. therefore the control scenario in the 21st century is a replica of the 20th century
the control scenario for the globe at 0.5 degrees (tyn sc 2.0) was also constructed following the above method. the only deviations were to begin with cru ts 2.0 (rather than cru ts 1.2), and to restrict the calculations to the period 1951-2000. when c had been calculated for 1951-2000, this period was duplicated into 1901-1950. the reason for the duplication was to minimise the effects of relaxation to zero anomalies in the construction of the observed time-series (new et al, 2000). the relaxation was in data-sparse places and times, and resulted in an absence of any inter-annual variability for the affected variables. if reflected in the time series of c an abrupt transition in variability would be introduced from one century to the next. this problem is relatively small in europe, so for tyn sc 1.0 advantage was taken of the larger sample of interannual variability available from the entire 20th century. in both data-sets it is assumed that in the absence of radiative forcing, sub-centennial climate variability would be similar from one century to the next. therefore the control scenario in the 21st century is a replica of the 20th century.
What are some barriers toward climate change in Europe?
o'brien et al. (#4) caution that complacency towards climate change poses significant barriers in europe, with a lack of awareness of potential dangers constraining action
What populations are missing from the dataset?
there is also no evidence in the dataset of adaptation actions targeting vulnerable populations including non-arctic indigenous populations, along with women, elderly, and children
What causes risks of intervention when it comes to literature about climate change adaptation versus intervention?
firstly, while adaptation is being thought about widely, examples of actual intervention reported in the literature are limited, raising concerns about the likelihood of effective adaptation given the speed of climate change and limited window of opportunity for action (adger and barnett 2009 
o'brien et al. (#4) caution that complacency towards climate change poses significant barriers in europe, with a lack of awareness of potential dangers constraining action. financial barriers, lack of information on the necessity to adapt, knowledge about available options, and the ability to implement most suitable ones, were not widely noted. 4 discussion traditional literature reviews are useful for characterizing the broad contours of knowledge on a given area, but are less suited to answering specific questions such as posed here: are developed nations adapting to climate change? questions of this nature require systematic review methodologies where explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria are developed to identify and analyze relevant literature. herein, we develop and apply a mixed-methods review methodology, creating a database of publications reporting on adaptation actions in developed nations. we do not argue that the database captures all adaptation actions being implemented, with interventions likely reported in the grey literature and in articles published outside of the 2006-2009 review period. what the work does offer, however, is a proxy or indicator of adaptation action at national/regional levels--a snapshot of what is going on--that can be used to monitor adaptation over time, and is consistent with calls for more timely analyses to compliment ipcc (oppenheimer et al. 2007 ). importantly, examining how adaptation is and is not taking place enables us to offer a number of insights of relevance to research and policy. firstly, while adaptation is being thought about widely, examples of actual intervention reported in the literature are limited, raising concerns about the likelihood of effective adaptation given the speed of climate change and limited window of opportunity for action (adger and barnett 2009 ). this is compounded by the often significant time requirements for adaptation development to progress from problem identification to actual implementation, as identified in articles reviewed here. where interventions are occurring we hypothesize that they represent action by early adopters, with adaptations typically at early stages of implementation. thus no studies examined here formally assess success of interventions or consider how adaptations will perform under different climate scenarios. adaptation reporting in unequal by region with actions only described in 14 annex-1 countries. there is also no evidence in the dataset of adaptation actions targeting vulnerable populations including non-arctic indigenous populations, along with women, elderly, and children. furthermore, while mainstreaming is evident, few studies describe the development of specific adaptation plans, which will be necessary in regions and sectors where future climatic conditions are expected to pose significant risks outside of those currently experienced (fussel 2007 ). secondly, as adaptations reviewed here illustrate, high adaptive capacity typically assumed for developed nations will not necessarily translate into effective adaptation action. thus--in addition to the concerns illustrated in the previous paragraph--a major challenge highlighted in a number of articles concerns the lack of political will to meaningfully address climate change impacts, particularly at local levels where a mismatch between national statements on adaptation and local action has been noted. in such cases adaptation interventions have preferred short term risk reduction over long term strategic planning, potentially increasing vulnerability and
How many species showed range decrease?
with full migration, 255 species overall showed range decreases
How many species showed range increase?
81 showed increases, compared with 47 species that showed a range increase given dispersal-limited range shifts
species range changes at 2050 varied widely, with the greatest variability shown under the full migration assumption. with full migration, 255 species overall showed range decreases, and 81 showed increases, compared with 47 species that showed a range increase given dispersal-limited range shifts, and, by definition, no species with null migration assumptions (table 1). overall mean species range sizes were reduced by climate change in 2050 by 29% with full migration, by 75% with null migration, and by an intermediate figure of 58% assuming dispersal-limited range shift (table 1). range shift results differed between ant/rodentand winddispersed species. overall, wind-dispersed species had 49% larger
Why is Britain was not the most exposed country in Europe?
britain was not the most exposed country in europe to the catastrophic august 2003 heatwave, time is money, and even in temperate london businesses will have to increasingly look to reduce their vulnerability to high temperatures in the workplace if such summers become commonplace
What are called for legal maximum temperatures for workplaces?
offices that are vulnerable to high temperatures, such as highly glazed buildings, suffered very badly in the heatwaves of 2003 and 2005 and the trades union congress (tuc), in response to wide-scale heat discomfort, called for legal maximum temperatures for workplaces
Who suggested a maximum working?
the tuc suggested a maximum working
although britain was not the most exposed country in europe to the catastrophic august 2003 heatwave, time is money, and even in temperate london businesses will have to increasingly look to reduce their vulnerability to high temperatures in the workplace if such summers become commonplace. offices that are vulnerable to high temperatures, such as highly glazed buildings, suffered very badly in the heatwaves of 2003 and 2005 and the trades union congress (tuc), in response to wide-scale heat discomfort, called for legal maximum temperatures for workplaces. current legislation sets a minimum temperature below which no one should have to work, at 16 deg c or, where severe physical work is required, 13 deg c. the tuc suggested a maximum working
How climate change affect the natural resources?
it is well-recognised that climate change will - and is already - resulting in a growing scarcity of natural resources such as water and arable land in some parts of the world
What is CDM?
furthermore, conflicts resulting from non-inclusive processes around climate change mitigation strategies may be imminent as large scale clean development mechanisms (cdm) projects in the south
What does gender-sensitive early warning indicators developed by UNIFEM include?
for example, the united nations development fund for women (unifem) has developed a set of gender-sensitive early warning indicators which include: increased gender-based violence, increased unemployment among male youths, reduced trust between ethnic groups, and a reduction in women's involvement over land disputes (moser 2007
it is well-recognised that climate change will - and is already - resulting in a growing scarcity of natural resources such as water and arable land in some parts of the world. with heightened competition over diminishing and unequally distributed resources, conflict over resources is set to increase (hemmati, 2005; rohr, 2008). furthermore, conflicts resulting from non-inclusive processes around climate change mitigation strategies may be imminent as large scale clean development mechanisms (cdm) projects in the south, which share environmentally sound technologies developed in industrialised countries with developing countries, rarely involve consultation with local stakeholders (rohr, 2008). although there is currently little research explicitly linking climate change with both conflict and gender, there is a considerable body of work that exists on gender and conflict, from which lessons can and should be drawn. so what do we already know? innovative work has been carried out on engendering conflict early warning systems to better ensure that previously overlooked signs of instability are taken into account. these approaches could be usefully drawn on to help recognise when conflict over resources is imminent, and to potentially prevent the conflict from occurring. for example, the united nations development fund for women (unifem) has developed a set of gender-sensitive early warning indicators which include: increased gender-based violence, increased unemployment among male youths, reduced trust between ethnic groups, and a reduction in women's involvement over land disputes (moser 2007). many of these indicators reflect the projected effects of climate change on communities - particularly around depleting resources. in cases where conflict over resources does occur, the gender and conflict literature again presents useful insights which should be used to inform appropriate, gender-sensitive responses. for example, existing work on gender and conflict points to women and men's 'traditionally' differing roles in conflict - with men and boys expected to be combatants while women and girls are expected to maintain the home and community in men's absence. this points to the need for policies and programmes that respond to the different roles that women and men play in conflicts, including those over natural resources - for example, interventions that provide women with safe routes to collect water and firewood. the differential impacts of conflict on men and women are also well documented, and include gender and sexual based violence targeted particularly at women and girls; women's reduced access to resources to cope with household responsibilities; the increased time women and girls are required to spend caring for the injured and sick; as well as the obvious risk of death and disability faced by men engaged in armed conflict. the effects of natural resource conflicts on women and men can be clearly seen in existing conflicts. take for example the case of sudan. both the conflicts between the north and the natural resource rich south, and the conflict in darfur between nomadic and sedentary tribes, are partly a result of quarrels over natural resources. the horrific levels of sexual violence in darfur, particularly against women and girls, which occur in villages when men and boys are away fighting, in and around refugee and idp camps, and outside the camps at times when scarce fuel and water is being collected, provide a stark example of the gendered effects of climate-change related conflicts.
What is broadly captured by most of the models?
latitudinal distributions of zonal-mean precipitation and their seasonal variations are broadly captured by most of the models (fig. 2
What is shown on Figure 2?
figure 2 shows that current observational precipitation products have large uncertainties, mainly because of windinduced undercatch by rain gauges and uncertainties in oceanic precipitation estimates
latitudinal distributions of zonal-mean precipitation and their seasonal variations are broadly captured by most of the models (fig. 2). in particular, the peak itcz rainfall and its seasonal migration (from  7.50degs in january to 8.25degn in july, with an annual mean of  6.75degn) are reproduced by most of the models. figure 2 shows that current observational precipitation products have large uncertainties, mainly because of windinduced undercatch by rain gauges and uncertainties in oceanic precipitation estimates. these observational uncertainties are comparable to the spread among the models at most latitudes, except for the peak south of the equator, where most models substantially overestimate the rainfall in both january and july and in annual
What is the disagreement between researchers on multi-level modelling approach?
although researchers agree that a multilevel modeling approach is appropriate for handling the nested nature of school climate data, some researchers find that standard multilevel modeling techniques are not sufficient to capture the variance in student outcomes (marsh et al. 2009 2012 muthen 1994 
Arguing what do the researchers emphasize the need for building models with latent constructs?
arguing that the standard use of a single scale to represent an aspect of climate does not adequately control for measurement error, they emphasize the need for building models with latent constructs that represent climate at both the individual and setting levels
What are Latent constructs?
latent constructs are unobserved (unmeasured) constructs that comprise multiple observed (measured) indicators of climate, and are responsible for the covariance among these indicators
although researchers agree that a multilevel modeling approach is appropriate for handling the nested nature of school climate data, some researchers find that standard multilevel modeling techniques are not sufficient to capture the variance in student outcomes (marsh et al. 2009 2012 muthen 1994 ). these researchers advocate for the use of doubly latent models, which combine confirmatory factor analysis, structural equation modeling, and multilevel modeling to reflect a more accurate measure of school features. arguing that the standard use of a single scale to represent an aspect of climate does not adequately control for measurement error, they emphasize the need for building models with latent constructs that represent climate at both the individual and setting levels. latent constructs are unobserved (unmeasured) constructs that comprise multiple observed (measured) indicators of climate, and are responsible for the covariance among these indicators. similar to confirmatory factor analysis, these several measured indicators of climate load onto an overall climate factor (the latent factor) that reduces measurement error at different levels and strengthens the validity of the research
What is human-caused climate change?
human-caused climate change
Why is climate change vulnerability important?
climate change vulnerability
What are the future impacts of climate change?
future impacts of climate change
freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in california, usa. the method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. the two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. fifty percent of california's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. for vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of california. most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. fishes requiring cold water 22 u c) are particularly likely to go extinct. in contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. however, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. it should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions.
What are steps to increase the resilience of the city to sea level rise, hurricanes and river flooding?
following the disastrous failure of structural flood defences during hurricane katrina in 2005, the state of louisiana and the city of new orleans have undertaken steps to increase the resilience of the city to sea level rise, hurricanes and river flooding
What and where are the detailed actions aimed at the promotion of wetlands are included?
detailed actions aimed at the promotion of wetlands are included in the new orleans masterplan under the headings of green infrastructure and city resilience
What is the focus on wetlands ?
the focus on wetlands as a natural buffer responds to the calls of research emphasising the importance of wetlands in flood protection
following the disastrous failure of structural flood defences during hurricane katrina in 2005, the state of louisiana and the city of new orleans have undertaken steps to increase the resilience of the city to sea level rise, hurricanes and river flooding. an approach utilising many lines of defence has been adopted, involving structural and non-structural defences. one of the key protection measures is the conservation and restoration of wetlands as a buffer zone between the sea and the city. detailed actions aimed at the promotion of wetlands are included in the new orleans masterplan under the headings of green infrastructure and city resilience. inclusion of wetland conservation and restoration activities in the new orleans masterplan signals a significant change of flood-defence tactics in the region from an emphasis on levees and floodgates to the incorporation of more natural solutions. the focus on wetlands as a natural buffer responds to the calls of research emphasising the importance of wetlands in flood protection.
How the monthly precipitation data are investigated?
monthly precipitation data from the global historical climatology network for 42 stations in morocco and its vicinity are investigated with respect to baroclinicity, storm track and cyclone activity, moisture transports, north atlantic oscillation (nao) variations, and different circulation types by means of correlation and composite studies
What the precipitation in northwestern Morocco shows?
precipitation in northwestern morocco shows a clear link to the baroclinic activity over the north atlantic during boreal winter (djf
What can be identified as a decisive factor for precipitation?
in the region south of the atlas mountains, moisture transports from the atlantic along the southern flank of the atlas mountains associated with cyclones west of morocco and the iberian peninsula can be identified as a decisive factor for precipitation
monthly precipitation data from the global historical climatology network for 42 stations in morocco and its vicinity are investigated with respect to baroclinicity, storm track and cyclone activity, moisture transports, north atlantic oscillation (nao) variations, and different circulation types by means of correlation and composite studies. the results are related to a climate change scenario from an echam4/opyc3 transient greenhouse gas only (ghg) simulation. precipitation in northwestern morocco shows a clear link to the baroclinic activity over the north atlantic during boreal winter (djf). in large precipitation months the north atlantic storm track is shifted southward, more westerly and northwesterly circulation situations occur and moisture transports from the atlantic are enhanced. the occurrence of local cyclones and upper-level troughs is more frequent than in low precipitation months. the negative correlation to the nao is relatively strong, especially with gibraltar as a southern pole (-0.71). the northward shift of the storm track and eastward shift of the azores high predicted by the echam model for increasing ghg concentrations would therefore be associated with decreasing precipitation and potentially serious impacts for the future water supply for parts of morocco. in the region south of the atlas mountains, moisture transports from the atlantic along the southern flank of the atlas mountains associated with cyclones west of morocco and the iberian peninsula can be identified as a decisive factor for precipitation. northeastern morocco and northwestern algeria, however, is rather dominated by the influence of cyclones over the western mediterranean that are associated with a strong northwesterly moisture transport. as both regions appear to be less dependent on the north atlantic storm track and more on local processes, a straight forward interpretation of the large-scale changes predicted by the echam4/opyc3 cannot be done without the application of down-scaling methods in the future.
Why several control algorithms be proposed?
we propose several control algorithms to compare their performance and complexity through simulations; the control algorithms regulate the indoor climate of commercial buildings
What is the goal of these control algorithms?
the goal of these control algorithms is to use occupancy information to reduce energy use--over conventional control algorithms--while maintaining thermal comfort and indoor air quality
How many control algorithms are proposed?
three novel control algorithms are proposed, one that uses feedback from occupancy and temperature sensors, while the other two computes optimal control actions based on predictions of a dynamic model to reduce energy use. both the optimal-control based schemes use a model predictive control (mpc) methodology; the difference between the two is that one is allowed occupancy measurements while the other is allowed long term occupancy prediction. simulation results show that each of the proposed controllers lead to significant amount of energy savings over a baseline conventional controller without sacrificing occupant health and comfort
we propose several control algorithms to compare their performance and complexity through simulations; the control algorithms regulate the indoor climate of commercial buildings. the goal of these control algorithms is to use occupancy information to reduce energy use--over conventional control algorithms--while maintaining thermal comfort and indoor air quality. three novel control algorithms are proposed, one that uses feedback from occupancy and temperature sensors, while the other two computes optimal control actions based on predictions of a dynamic model to reduce energy use. both the optimal-control based schemes use a model predictive control (mpc) methodology; the difference between the two is that one is allowed occupancy measurements while the other is allowed long term occupancy prediction. simulation results show that each of the proposed controllers lead to significant amount of energy savings over a baseline conventional controller without sacrificing occupant health and comfort. another key finding is that the feedback controller performs almost as well as the more complex mpc-based controllers. in light of the informational/computational complexity of the mpc algorithms compared to the feedback control algorithm, we conclude that feedback control is more suitable for energy-efficient zone-climate control than mpc-based control, and that the difficulty of obtaining occupancy predictions is not commensurate with the resulting benefits.
What are the findings of Landscape 2013 in global terms?
in global terms, landscape 2013 finds that climate finance investments have plateaued at levels well below what is needed to achieve a 2deg celsius temperature stabilization pathway in the absence of clarity about some key factors that underpin calculations of climate finance
what helps in calculating the global climate finance flows?
in the absence of agreement, and against the background of divergent domestic and international political views, it is inevitable that disagreements will arise about the methods used to calculate global climate finance flows
What is the role of CPI in the calculations of climate finance?
in global terms, landscape 2013 finds that climate finance investments have plateaued at levels well below what is needed to achieve a 2deg celsius temperature stabilization pathway in the absence of clarity about some key factors that underpin calculations of climate finance, cpi has applied a range of appropriate definitions where these exist, and taken steps to refine these where opportunity or need emerges
in global terms, landscape 2013 finds that climate finance investments have plateaued at levels well below what is needed to achieve a 2deg celsius temperature stabilization pathway in the absence of clarity about some key factors that underpin calculations of climate finance, cpi has applied a range of appropriate definitions where these exist, and taken steps to refine these where opportunity or need emerges. where methodological gaps exist, we have attempted to develop approaches, for example, to calculate deep ownership structures (see methodology for examples). in the absence of agreement, and against the background of divergent domestic and international political views, it is inevitable that disagreements will arise about the methods used to calculate global climate finance flows. this section identifies some of the most important definitional and methodological issues that result in information gaps, and opportunities for policymakers to address these going forward.
What control variables are used in the model?
there are three control variables in the model: mitigation, proactive adaptation, and reactive adaptation
When a common performance indicator for adaptation activities across sectors and regions is absent, what must the policy variable for both anticipative and reactive adaptation be?
in the absence of a common performance indicator for adaptation activities across sectors and regions, the policy variable for both anticipative and reactive adaptation must be the amount of money spent on adaptation
What is selected as the policy variable for mitigation?
by contrast, a physical indicator is selected as the policy variable for mitigation
there are three control variables in the model: mitigation, proactive adaptation, and reactive adaptation. we denote pijt the amount of money spent on proactive adaptation in sector i within region j during period t and rijt the amount of money spent on reactive adaptation in the same sector, place, and time period. in the absence of a common performance indicator for adaptation activities across sectors and regions, the policy variable for both anticipative and reactive adaptation must be the amount of money spent on adaptation. by contrast, a physical indicator is selected as the policy variable for mitigation. we denote aijt as the amount of greenhouse gases abated relative to business-as-usual in sector i within
What did Hamilton et al (2003) speculate?
hamilton et al. 2003 speculate that climate change during the latter half of the 20th-century partially contributed to the loss of hundreds of ski areas in the new england region of the us
Who will be the survivors in an era of climate change?
individual ski areas that are better climate adapted and with greater adaptive capacity (as defined by yohe and tol 2002 )) than their competitors will be the survivors in an era of climate change
Assuming skier/rider demand remains relatively stable, what could ski areas do in order to take advantage of a climatically altered business environment?
assuming skier/rider demand remains relatively stable, then ski areas that remain could be in a position to take advantage of a climatically altered business environment, gaining market share (through lost competition) and potentially maintaining or even improving economic performance despite reduced ski seasons and higher operating costs (i.e., snowmaking
climate change adaptation in the ski industry is also anticipated to remain largely individualistic for a number of reasons. the availability of adaptation options will be very context-specific and vary according to geographic characteristics (e.g., microclimate, available high elevation terrain for expansion, and distance to large urban markets), government jurisdiction (e.g., water access rights in different states/provinces or inside/outside of national parks) and business model (e.g., independent ski area operators versus ski conglomerates). this, combined with the highly competitive nature of the ski industry, suggests that an unplanned, market-based contraction of the industry, a continuation of the historical trend in north america, represents its likely future in an era of climate change. hamilton et al. 2003 speculate that climate change during the latter half of the 20th-century partially contributed to the loss of hundreds of ski areas in the new england region of the us. the projected warming trend over the first five decades of the 21st century is also likely to have a similar or perhaps more pronounced affect in this region and other ski regions of north america and internationally. individual ski areas that are better climate adapted and with greater adaptive capacity (as defined by yohe and tol 2002 )) than their competitors will be the survivors in an era of climate change. the authors hypothesize that ski areas with greater adaptive capacity are characterized by the following: they have the potential to expand into higher elevation terrain where exposure to climate change is lower and snowmaking capabilities enhanced; they have capital to develop efficient and extensive snowmaking systems; they have the capacity to expand water supply for increased snowmaking; they have the capacity to further diversify resort operations (multiple winter activities and four-season operation); they are part of a larger company or regionally diversified ski conglomerate that could provide financial or human-resource support during poor business conditions; they are located in jurisdictions with less land use restrictions (e.g., outside of national parks or in states/ provinces where skiing makes a large contribution to the economy) and have positive relationships with host communities, both of which may reduce constraints to adaptation. although projected climate change would contribute to the demise of poorly adapted ski companies, it is likely to selectively advantage those that remain. assuming skier/rider demand remains relatively stable, then ski areas that remain could be in a position to take advantage of a climatically altered business environment, gaining market share (through lost competition) and potentially maintaining or even improving economic performance despite reduced ski seasons and higher operating costs (i.e., snowmaking). conclusion as awareness of the potential impacts of climate change increases among ski area operators and their investors, it is likely that plans will be set in place to reduce the risks and take advantage of any strategic opportunities posed by a changed climate. determining the potential 'winners and losers' in the ski industry, at both the individual ski area and destination level, remains an important task for future climate change vulnerability research. studies that only modeled future natural snow conditions and did not take snowmaking into account have likely overestimated the potential damages and over-generalized impacts among individual ski businesses.
What does T-AMIP2 request to fulfill this aim?
to fulfill this aim, t-amip2 requests a comprehensive set of diagnostics including satellite simulator and tendency diagnostics at high temporal resolution, plus near-time-step diagnostics at a selection of sites
How has the set of hindcasts has been chosen?
the set of hindcasts has been chosen to tie in with iops within a number of field campaigns, and is all set within the intensively studied yotc period
What is the bias of the models submitted to T-AMIP2?
most of the models submitted to t-amip2 share a bias of too little rsw over the southern ocean, although details vary and ipsl-cm5a-lr is notably different in having a positive bias. the negative rsw bias has been shown to be present primarily on the cold-air side of cyclones and/or leading side of transient ridges, away from frontal regions
cmip5. to fulfill this aim, t-amip2 requests a comprehensive set of diagnostics including satellite simulator and tendency diagnostics at high temporal resolution, plus near-time-step diagnostics at a selection of sites. the set of hindcasts has been chosen to tie in with iops within a number of field campaigns, and is all set within the intensively studied yotc period. the use of some of these diagnostics for detailed investigations has been illustrated in an analysis of toa flux biases over the southern ocean. this is an issue for many gcms and is believed to affect their coupled atmosphere- ocean performance and climate change response. most of the models submitted to t-amip2 share a bias of too little rsw over the southern ocean, although details vary and ipsl-cm5a-lr is notably different in having a positive bias. the negative rsw bias has been shown to be present primarily on the cold-air side of cyclones and/or leading side of transient ridges, away from frontal regions. the bias is present when the lower troposphere is more stable, but it can be associated with a range of low-level wind speeds. a case study has been presented that is typical of the conditions under which an rsw bias is present in all of the models. generally, the biases are more similar between the models at these short ranges. variations in the climatological bias then develop due to differences in the magnitude of positive and negative biases in different
In the livestock industry, what are the  most important emitters of GHGs?
the most important emitters of ghgs -- namely, ruminant meat producers 
Why are ruminant meat producers required to make greater market adjustments to the land-based climate policies than nonruminant meat producers and dairy farms?
in the case of livestock producers, we fi nd that the most important emitters of ghgs -- namely, ruminant meat producers -- are required to make greater market adjustments to the land-based climate policies than nonruminant meat producers and dairy farms, because they have higher emission intensities and face more limited abatement possibilities
For non-Annex I countries, what enabled the simultaneous reduction of emissions and expansion of output for nonruminant meat and dairy producers?
for non-annex i countries, the enforcement of the emissions tax coupled with the compensation of these tax expenses enabled the simultaneous reduction of emissions and expansion of output for nonruminant meat and dairy producers
discussion although recent research has shed light on the cost-effective contribution that livestock can make to global ghg abatement, there is still much to be learned about the policy options available to exploit this potential. this study has shown that the design and coverage of climate policy options matter a great deal in terms of environmental effectiveness and their impacts on agricultural production, producer livelihoods, and food security. our work underscores the heterogeneity of sector responses to global, land-based mitigation policies. in the case of livestock producers, we fi nd that the most important emitters of ghgs -- namely, ruminant meat producers -- are required to make greater market adjustments to the land-based climate policies than nonruminant meat producers and dairy farms, because they have higher emission intensities and face more limited abatement possibilities. for non-annex i countries, the enforcement of the emissions tax coupled with the compensation of these tax expenses enabled the simultaneous reduction of emissions and expansion of output for nonruminant meat and dairy producers. there is the temptation to try to address concerns about food security and agricultural development by exempting non-annex i regions from climate policies. however, this exemption can lead to high emissions leakage rates in livestock sectors and agriculture as a whole. the prospect of large leakages because of expansion in non-annex i production could easily derail the inclusion of agriculture in future mitigation strategies. extension of the forest carbon sequestration incentive to all regions, while still exempting non-annex i producers from the ghg emissions tax (scenario b), was shown to eliminate this leakage and boost livestock abatement by 80% and agricultural
What is the role of Brewer-Dobson circulation?
the brewer-dobson circulation plays an important role in transporting chemical species into and within the stratosphere, and also in determining the thermal structure of the stratosphere through adiabatic warming or cooling
the brewer-dobson circulation plays an important role in transporting chemical species into and within the stratosphere, and also in determining the thermal structure of the stratosphere through adiabatic warming or cooling. a useful proxy for the brewer-dobson circulation in the models is the transformed eulerian mean (tem) residual velocity [?] v<s187>*, [?] w<s187>*) (hardiman et al. 2010a, equations 22 and 23). in particular the residual vertical velocity, [?] w<s187>*, just above the tropical tropopause can be used to deduce the mass fl ux entering the stratosphere and thereby provide a measure of the overall strength of the overturning meridional mass circulation in the model stratospheres (butchart and scaife, 2001). the rate of tropical upwelling also gives a good indication of the mean age of stratospheric air -- the time elapsed since a stratospheric parcel of air was last in contact with the troposphere (austin and li, 2006; butchart et al. 2010; also see chapter 5). in the ref-b1 simulations at 70 hpa there is good agreement between nine out of the fourteen models in the climatological residual vertical velocities, [?] w<s187>*, between
How does the Daily meteorological data from the HBV model are modified?
daily meteorological data from the hbv model are modified by adding single hot days with additional convective rainfall or deleting precipitation events until the predicted monthly means are achieved
What does this procedure reflects?
this procedure reflects future weather patterns more realistically than a general monthly factor
What has to be chosen to cover the whole range of possible reactions?
to cover the whole range of possible reactions, two reference years with temperature conditions as different as possible were chosen and one scenario for a reference year with much galcier melt ("hbv hot") and another with little glacier melt ("hbv cool") were produced
daily meteorological data from the hbv model are modified by adding single hot days with additional convective rainfall or deleting precipitation events until the predicted monthly means are achieved. this procedure reflects future weather patterns more realistically than a general monthly factor. to cover the whole range of possible reactions, two reference years with temperature conditions as different as possible were chosen and one scenario for a reference year with much galcier melt ("hbv hot") and another with little glacier melt ("hbv cool") were produced. these scenarios are meteorological in nature, i.e., weather patterns and associated runoff can be displayed, in contrast to the mean monthly conditions produced by oez. since both models are not capable of describing deglacierization in an iterative way, scenarios
What is lacking?
prediction on how climate change will aff ect agricultural production is lacking
What could be off set by better practices, more irrigation, and use of genetically modifi ed crops?
some of the negative eff ects of climate change on agriculture could be off set by better practices, more irrigation, and use of genetically modifi ed crops
When might the land be more suitable and more environmentally sustainable?
the land might be more suitable and more environmentally sustainable if used for mixed food crops
prediction on how climate change will aff ect agricultural production is lacking. some of the negative eff ects of climate change on agriculture could be off set by better practices, more irrigation, and use of genetically modifi ed crops. however, in some areas a complete change of agricultural practices and type of crops grown will be needed. this is both an informational and social challenge. with climate change, many areas might become unsuitable for cash crops; however, because of market forces, high use of irrigation and pesticides might still make it fi nancially viable. but the land might be more suitable and more environmentally sustainable if used for mixed food crops. these important decisions need information to ensure a region's or country's food security in spite of climate change. one suggestion of multinational biotechnology corporations and some governments is that the eff ects of
What is NW?
summer (june-august) is the major rainy season for the subtropical northwest (nw) pacific and east asia. rainfall variability during summer is of great socioeconomic importance for east asia
What is ENSO?
summer rainfall in the region displays peculiar correlations with the el nin~o- southern oscillation (enso), not concurrently but eight months after sea surface temperature (sst) anomalies in the equatorial pacific have peaked (huang and wu 1989; zhang et al
What is rainfall anomalies?
the meridional dipole of rainfall anomalies in the east asia-western pacific sector is a signature of the socalled pacific-japan (pj) pattern, best seen in low-level vorticity and upper-level height fields (nitta 1987; kosaka and nakamura 2006). the correlation between the pj pattern and enso must be anchored by sst forcing, but the search for sst forcing within the tropical pacific turns out not very successful
summer (june-august) is the major rainy season for the subtropical northwest (nw) pacific and east asia. rainfall variability during summer is of great socioeconomic importance for east asia. summer rainfall in the region displays peculiar correlations with the el nin~o- southern oscillation (enso), not concurrently but eight months after sea surface temperature (sst) anomalies in the equatorial pacific have peaked (huang and wu 1989; zhang et al. 1996; wang et al. 2003; huang et al. 2004; arai and kimoto 2008). in the summer following an el nin~o event, precipitation decreases over the subtropical nw pacific and tends to increase over eastern china and japan. the meridional dipole of rainfall anomalies in the east asia-western pacific sector is a signature of the socalled pacific-japan (pj) pattern, best seen in low-level vorticity and upper-level height fields (nitta 1987; kosaka and nakamura 2006). the correlation between the pj pattern and enso must be anchored by sst forcing, but the search for sst forcing within the tropical pacific turns out not very successful (nitta 1990; kosaka and
How many series of interviews were conducted?
data for this study were collected from an extensive review of secondary sources and from a series of 35 semi-structured interviews conducted over an extended period from early 1998 to mid 2000
Why were the industries chosen for the study?
these industries were selected because they face sigdicant market and technological challenges on account of climate change, they have played a major role in the us coalition against mandatory controls, and their strategic responses differ between the usa and europe and over time
How many companies were studied?
a total of eight companies were studied, including four oil and four automobile companies, half of which were european-owned and half us-owned
levy and d. egan these industries were selected because they face sigdicant market and technological challenges on account of climate change, they have played a major role in the us coalition against mandatory controls, and their strategic responses differ between the usa and europe and over time. a total of eight companies were studied, including four oil and four automobile companies, half of which were european-owned and half us-owned. due to the degree of industry concentration and the inclusion of some of the largest companies, the study encompassed a substantial proportion of industry revenues, mitigating somewhat the problem of small sample size. data for this study were collected from an extensive review of secondary sources and from a series of 35 semi-structured interviews conducted over an extended period from early 1998 to mid 2000. interviews were conducted
What is here examined the % of wet warming scenario ?
the wet warming scenario examined here has 10% more runoff than the historical hydrology, but only 6% more generation and 2% more average annual revenues
Requirement of this study ?
this study required some simplifying assumptions. nevertheless, it gives insights and suggests some degree of adaptive capability to climate warming
Which place occured the varied hydrologic changes ?
california
limited capacities cannot take full advantage of increased energy runoff under the wet scenario. the wet warming scenario examined here has 10% more runoff than the historical hydrology, but only 6% more generation and 2% more average annual revenues. in a warming-only scenario with unchanged historical precipitation, generation and revenues decrease by 1 and almost 2%, respectively. this study required some simplifying assumptions. nevertheless, it gives insights and suggests some degree of adaptive capability to climate warming. future studies should address environmental and other constraints, include demand and price impacts of climate change, and apply refined estimates of varied hydrologic changes from climate change across california.
What invites submission of original, weather-related art and photos for potential publication in future issues of the magazine?
the bulletin of the american meteorological society invites submission of original, weather-related art and photos for potential publication in future issues of the magazine
In what kind of work is the Bulletin staff interested?
the bulletin staff is especially interested in work that is artistic and creative, featuring a unique, interesting perspective
What will be determined by the production staff?
specific use of the images will be determined by the production staff
the bulletin of the american meteorological society invites submission of original, weather-related art and photos for potential publication in future issues of the magazine. the bulletin staff is especially interested in work that is artistic and creative, featuring a unique, interesting perspective; chosen works will be used to help add more graphic appeal to the bulletin. specific use of the images will be determined by the production staff. please be aware that your submission will not be peer reviewed--we will be looking at submissions more from an aesthetic viewpoint than a scientific one. (photos intended for scientific publication should be submitted following normal bulletin guidelines for peer-reviewed submissions.) nonetheless, all submissions will be given equal consideration. we hope that you will take this ongoing opportunity to inspire your colleagues and shape the look of your society's publication. ownership of the works will be retained by the artist/photographer; we do not offer payment for published submissions. submission requirements: for artwork, please do not submit the original work of art--send only a high-quality color photo of the piece. for art and all other photographs submitted for consideration, send only first-quality, camera-ready prints or slides (no photocopies, please). submissions will not be returned unless accompanied by a self-addressed envelope with correct postage. please include with the submission your name, the title of the work (if applicable), and any other relevant information. if a description of the submission would be helpful, please include a succinct caption. please submit your work to: david gershman, manager of art and design, ams, 45 beacon st., boston, ma 02108-3693.
Is this study the same as other regional modeling studies?
our study differs from other regional climate modeling studies of future scenarios in several ways
How many ensembles were compared in this study?
we compare results of two ensembles of experiments that differ only in the specified
What is/are the charactheristic(s) of the spatial resolution used in this study?
we incorporated a finer spatial resolution (40 km gridcell length) than that used in most other rcm studies
our study differs from other regional climate modeling studies of future scenarios in several ways. first, this is the only rcm study we know of that included multiple runs with the same model (ensemble approach, explained below) for each scenario. second, we compare results of two ensembles of experiments that differ only in the specified, steady state co2 concentrations. lastly, we incorporated a finer spatial resolution (40 km gridcell length) than that used in most other rcm studies. we used a modified version of the regcm2 rcm giorgi and shields 1999] (hereafter referred to as regcm2.5) for this study. regcm2.5 contains the radiation code of community climate model (ccm3), which is an
What do their model simulations exercise and include?
our model simulations exercise a standard configuration of the national center for atmospheric research (ncar) community atmosphere model, v. 3.1, which includes a finite-volume dynamical core, a grid that is 2 8 in latitude by 2.5 8 in longitude, 26 vertical levels, an interactive land surface and a thermodynamic sea ice model collins et al 2006 
What does the land surface model compute?
the land surface model computes fluxes of energy and water based on plant type and stomatal apertures adjusted to balance carbon assimilation by photosynthesis and water loss through evaporation
What does the sea ice model compute?
the sea ice model computes the local thermodynamic balances between heat fluxes and ice formation and melting, but does not include the movement of sea ice
our model simulations exercise a standard configuration of the national center for atmospheric research (ncar) community atmosphere model, v. 3.1, which includes a finite-volume dynamical core, a grid that is 2 8 in latitude by 2.5 8 in longitude, 26 vertical levels, an interactive land surface and a thermodynamic sea ice model collins et al 2006 ). the land surface model computes fluxes of energy and water based on plant type and stomatal apertures adjusted to balance carbon assimilation by photosynthesis and water loss through evaporation. the sea ice model computes the local thermodynamic balances between heat fluxes and ice formation and melting, but does not include the movement of sea ice. first, we simulated a control climate using specified observed sea surface temperatures levitus 1982 ). in this mode, we can diagnose the energy fluxes into and out of the ocean as calculated by the atmosphere model, and compute the implied ocean heat transport. then we represent the surface of the ocean as a layer of water with varying thicknesses as specified by observed ocean mixed-layer
How do greenhouse gases affect the planet's climate?
models project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will result in changes in daily, seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal variability. there is projected to be a decrease in diurnal temperature range in many areas, decrease of daily variability of surface air temperature in winter, and increased daily variability in summer in the northern hemisphere land areas
What could be the negative projections of these models?
many of these projected changes would lead to increased risks of floods and droughts in many regions, and predominantly adverse impacts on ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health (see table spm-2 for details
Will tropical storms be worse with greenhouse gas concentrations?
high resolution modeling studies suggest that peak wind and precipitation intensity of tropical cyclones are likely to increase over some areas
models project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will result in changes in daily, seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal variability. there is projected to be a decrease in diurnal temperature range in many areas, decrease of daily variability of surface air temperature in winter, and increased daily variability in summer in the northern hemisphere land areas. many models project more el nino-like mean conditions in the tropical pacific. there is no clear agreement concerning changes in frequency or structure of naturally occurring atmosphere-ocean circulation patterns such as that of the north atlantic oscillation (nao). models project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases result in changes in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as more hot days, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and fewer cold days. many of these projected changes would lead to increased risks of floods and droughts in many regions, and predominantly adverse impacts on ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health (see table spm-2 for details). high resolution modeling studies suggest that peak wind and precipitation intensity of tropical cyclones are likely to increase over some areas. there is insufficient information on how very small-scale extreme weather phenomena (e.g., thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, hailstorms, and lightning) may change.
What is the expansion of NAPA?
national adaptation plans of action (napa
What have been developed recently under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for Least Developed Countries (LDCs)?
national adaptation plans of action (napa) have been developed recently under the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) for least developed countries (ldcs
What does this paper present?
this paper presents an overarching framework for a municipal level approach to adapting sectors to climate impacts
national adaptation plans of action (napa) have been developed recently under the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) for least developed countries (ldcs).(6) however, to date there has not been a consolidated or coordinated approach to adaptation to projected climate impacts on a municipal scale. this needs to be addressed urgently as it is at this level that many people are directly affected by climate-induced impacts, and it is at this level that institutional solutions can be introduced that target wide numbers of people. this paper presents an overarching framework for a municipal level approach to adapting sectors to climate impacts, and it highlights examples of potential impacts for the city of cape town. some potential adaptation actions and possible interventions have been suggested. however, as this is the initial framework for developing and implementing a plan, no stakeholder consultation or assessment of the city's capacity to plan and implement an adaptation programme has been made.
What was compiled?
a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that reported performance measures of non-native (157 species) and co-occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, co2 and precipitation conditions
What did the analyses reveal in terrestrial (primarily plant) systems?
native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes
climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may interact in the future. to date, the hypothesis that climate change will favour non-native species has been examined exclusively through local comparisons of single or few species. here, we take a meta-analytical approach to broadly evaluate whether non-native species are poised to respond more positively than native species to future climatic conditions. we compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that reported performance measures of non-native (157 species) and co-occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, co2 and precipitation conditions. our analyses revealed that in terrestrial (primarily plant) systems, native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes. by contrast, in aquatic (primarily animal) systems, increases in temperature and co2 largely inhibited native species. there was a general trend towards stronger responses among non-native species, including enhanced positive responses to more favourable conditions and stronger negative responses to less favourable conditions. as climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, whereas sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions. keywords climate change, co2, effect size, forecasting, global warming, invasive species, meta-analysis, performance, precipitation, resource utilisation.
Is there any relationship between changes in outdoor temperature and numbers of deaths from chest and heart illness?
there is a strong relationship between changes in outdoor temperature and numbers of deaths from chest and heart illness
Cold-related deaths are consistently greater or less than numbers associated with high summer temperatures?
cold-related deaths are consistently greater than numbers associated with high summer temperatures
In European and other countries, most excess winter deaths are due to cardiovascular or respiratory disease or both?
in european and other countries, most excess winter deaths are due to cardiovascular and respiratory disease
there is a strong relationship between changes in outdoor temperature and numbers of deaths from chest and heart illness. 2 cold-related deaths are consistently greater than numbers associated with high summer temperatures. 3 in european and other countries, most excess winter deaths are due to cardiovascular and respiratory disease, although the proportions vary. 4 in the uk, despite a persisting, widespread assumption that hypothermia (cooling of the body core) is largely responsible, 5 one-third of these deaths are attributable to respiratory disease and more than a half to cardiovascular events (mainly heart attacks and strokes). 6 although circulatory (cardiovascular) disease accounts for higher absolute numbers, winter temperatures have a greater more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What the atmospheric component uses?
as described in section 2, the cm2.0 atmospheric component uses a b grid dynamical core, and the cm2.1 atmospheric component uses a finite volume (fv) dynamical core
What is mean by FV core?
the fv core leads to an improved simulation of the midlatitude westerly winds after coupling, and overall lower sst biases
Describe CM2.0?
the surface in cm2.1 relative to cm2.0; (ii) a change in the land model to suppress evaporation when soil is frozen at a depth of 30 cm-- this reduces late spring evaporation at higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere, thereby reducing cloudiness and increasing net surface shortwave radiation in cm2.1 relative to cm2.0; and (iii) the use of a lower extratropical horizontal viscosity in the cm2.1 ocean component--this reduces sea ice in the north atlantic, thereby substantially reducing the cold bias seen there in cm2.0
as described in section 2, the cm2.0 atmospheric component uses a b grid dynamical core, and the cm2.1 atmospheric component uses a finite volume (fv) dynamical core. the fv core leads to an improved simulation of the midlatitude westerly winds after coupling, and overall lower sst biases. this difference in the midlatitude westerly winds, and associated reduction in overall biases, is the primary reason why two coupled models have been developed and used. additional differences between cm2.0 and cm2.1 include (i) a retuning of the clouds to increase the net shortwave radiation at the surface in cm2.1 relative to cm2.0; (ii) a change in the land model to suppress evaporation when soil is frozen at a depth of 30 cm-- this reduces late spring evaporation at higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere, thereby reducing cloudiness and increasing net surface shortwave radiation in cm2.1 relative to cm2.0; and (iii) the use of a lower extratropical horizontal viscosity in the cm2.1 ocean component--this reduces sea ice in the north atlantic, thereby substantially reducing the cold bias seen there in cm2.0. these overall results highlight the crucial importance of the simulation of surface fluxes (heat, water, and momentum) for the drift characteristics of coupled models. as described more fully in a companion paper (part
What is ClimatePC software?
the algorithms used in the climatebc v1 and v2 software package were previously described in detail hamann and wang, 2005; wang et al., 2006 
What are GCM programs?
the software package climatebc v3 corresponding to this paper remains largely unchanged except for faster downscaling algorithms and the integration of 4000 monthly climate surfaces for historical data, and 2500 monthly climate surfaces for gcm projections
Describe the Canadian Prairie States?
the algorithms used in the climatebc v1 and v2 software package were previously described in detail hamann and wang, 2005; wang et al., 2006 ). the software package climatebc v3 corresponding to this paper remains largely unchanged except for faster downscaling algorithms and the integration of 4000 monthly climate surfaces for historical data, and 2500 monthly climate surfaces for gcm projections. another 8500 surfaces of derived variables and seasonal or annual summary variables are generated by the software package on demand. we also added a second equivalent software package climatepp v3 that covers the canadian prairie provinces alberta, saskatchewan and manitoba
the algorithms used in the climatebc v1 and v2 software package were previously described in detail hamann and wang, 2005; wang et al., 2006 ). the software package climatebc v3 corresponding to this paper remains largely unchanged except for faster downscaling algorithms and the integration of 4000 monthly climate surfaces for historical data, and 2500 monthly climate surfaces for gcm projections. another 8500 surfaces of derived variables and seasonal or annual summary variables are generated by the software package on demand. we also added a second equivalent software package climatepp v3 that covers the canadian prairie provinces alberta, saskatchewan and manitoba.
What does the model consider?
model considering the mechanism of co2 effects could be helpful to detect the influences of increased co2 on streamflow at the watershed scale during the past decades
What were the two scenarios proposed?
two scenarios were proposed to represent the constant baseline co2 concentration level (i.e., without considering effects of increased co2) using standard swat (scenario i) and time varying (monthly, dynamic) co2 concentration (scenario ii) using the modified swat
Were other anthropogenic effects directly considered? Why?
since all other conditions remained the same between these two scenarios, other anthropogenic effects (e.g., changes in land use and irrigation) were not directly considered under this methodology
model considering the mechanism of co2 effects could be helpful to detect the influences of increased co2 on streamflow at the watershed scale during the past decades. two scenarios were proposed to represent the constant baseline co2 concentration level (i.e., without considering effects of increased co2) using standard swat (scenario i) and time varying (monthly, dynamic) co2 concentration (scenario ii) using the modified swat. since all other conditions remained the same between these two scenarios, other anthropogenic effects (e.g., changes in land use and irrigation) were not directly considered under this methodology. although this can be seen as a weakness of this study, our main objective was to investigate
What limitations does the model have?
it should be noted, however, that our model has several limitations. it has a low spatial resolution and a simplified representation of atmospheric dynamics (i.e., based on quasi-geostrophic equations) that hamper a realistic simulation of the low-latitude climate
What results do we see the Western Sahara?
in the western sahara, our simulation results agree with holocene lake records fabre and petit-maire, 1988 le' zine et al., 1990 that suggest that the ahp termination was a highly unstable phase, characterized by centennial-scale fluctuations in precipitation
Give an example of a limitation of the model?
another limitation of our model is that atmosphere and vegetation are only coupled via the surface albedo, thus neglecting the direct effect of changing vegetation on the evapotranspiration
it should be noted, however, that our model has several limitations. it has a low spatial resolution and a simplified representation of atmospheric dynamics (i.e., based on quasi-geostrophic equations) that hamper a realistic simulation of the low-latitude climate. for instance, the model has a tendency to overestimate precipitation in central north africa, even with present-day forcings. as a consequence, the simulated 0 kyr cal bp vegetation cover at 12 1 e reaches 80% where desert is present in reality fig. 5b ). in the eastern sahara at 25 1 n, on the other hand, the precipitation rates are low throughout the experiment, even at 9 kyr cal bp, so that here the 9 kyr cal bp vegetation cover is locally below 25%, while it was probably higher in the early holocene. this implies that here the ahp termination cannot be simulated in a reliable way in our model and that the range of the simulated area with high variability fig. 5c should be treated with caution. nevertheless, in the western sahara, our simulation results agree with holocene lake records fabre and petit-maire, 1988 le' zine et al., 1990 that suggest that the ahp termination was a highly unstable phase, characterized by centennial-scale fluctuations in precipitation. in the other discussed monsoonal regions, our simulation shows a less good fit with the paleoevidence. for instance, lake level records from west asia and the horn of africa indicate that here the mid-holocene wet-dry transition was possibly abrupt (e.g., gasse and van campo, 1994 ), while our results suggest a linear holocene evolution in line with the orbital forcing. another limitation of our model is that atmosphere and vegetation are only coupled via the surface albedo, thus neglecting the direct effect of changing vegetation on the evapotranspiration. a change from grassland to desert in a progressively drier climate would lead to a decrease in
How many deaths did the heatwave of 2003 cause in Europe?
the heatwaves of 2003 in europe caused up to 70 000 deaths, especially from respiratory and cardiovascular causes
Do rising temperatures increase the short-term mortality rate?
rising temperatures are likely to generate heat-related stress, increasing the short-term mortality rate due to heatstroke
climate change will aff ect health directly through a complex set of interdependent interactions. regional weather changes in temperature, sea level, precipitation, and extreme weather events will cause downstream eff ects on the environment that lead to adverse health eff ects. the epidemiological outcome of climate change on disease patterns worldwide will be profound, especially in developing countries where existing vulnerabilities to poor health remain. the added pressure of climate change to the environment will worsen this burden and pose challenging questions for public and global health. global temperature rise will directly aff ect health. the heatwaves of 2003 in europe caused up to 70 000 deaths, especially from respiratory and cardiovascular causes.28 rising temperatures are likely to generate heat-related stress, increasing the short-term mortality rate due to heatstroke.29 regions that are heavily urbanised will be more adversely aff ected than rural ones. urban populations are especially vulnerable to climate change,30 as are people with a pre-existing respiratory disease.31 modelling of climate change in the gulf predicts increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector-borne diseases in 2070-99.32 the california heatwave of 2006 showed large increases in admissions to hospitals from cardiovascular and other illnesses, and the heatwave in germany in 2003 increased mortality rates, especially from respiratory causes.33,34
What percentage of the top 1% of SNPs overlapped?
among the top 1% of signi fi cant snps across studies, 10 - 20% overlapped (depending on the environment), indicating some major effect loci that are present in both studies
How many contrasting pairs were used in the study?
a total of 15 contrasting pairs among six environments
How many common greenhouse conditions were used in the four environments?
the gwa results of ft in our four environments were compared with two common greenhouse growth conditions
the gwa results of ft in our four environments were compared with two common greenhouse growth conditions from our previous study (26), for a total of 15 contrasting pairs among six environments. the results show a greater overlap of signi fi cant snps among the four environments in this study than between studies fig. s6 ). this fi nding is because of the large environmental difference between simulated seasonal climates and common greenhouse conditions, but it is also confounded by the different mapping sets used in the two studies. spring in spain had less of an overlap with the other three conditions in our study because early fl owering was suppressed by noninductive conditions. among the top 1% of signi fi cant snps across studies, 10 - 20% overlapped (depending on the environment), indicating some major effect loci that are present in both studies.
How were the P values for fixed-effect parameters calculated?
we calculated p values for fixed-effect parameters with an analysis of variance using the satterthwaite estimation of the degrees of freedom with the lmertest package
the cover of vascular plants for years 7-14 was used to assess the midto long-term responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental manipulations. we used linear mixed models from the lme4 package45in r46to identify treatment effects on total cover, species richness and compositional change. compositional change was assessed with the bray-curtis dissimilarity47of the plant community in a specific year compared with the plant community at the beginning of the experiment at the same plot (pretreatment year or first year at sp). the bray-curtis dissimilarity was calculated for each plot in all sampling years with the vegdist function in the vegan package48in r. values of total cover, species richness and compositional change were averaged across available years (7-14 for long-term responses and 2-5 years for short-term responses) for each plot to avoid temporal pseudoreplication. we calculated p values for fixed-effect parameters with an analysis of variance using the satterthwaite estimation of the degrees of freedom with the lmertest package49. we applied separate models to analyse the effects of the warming and drought treatments and used site and site:block as random factors for the cross-site tests; block was a random factor in the sitespecific analyses (the warming effect in nl was analysed with a linear model, since warming and control plots were not blocked).
What in general is assessed by The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1(IPCC)?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change1(ipcc) assessed the extent to which recent observed changes in natural biological systems have been caused by climate change. this was a difficult task despite documented statistical correlations between changes in climate and biological changes2-5
How can be attributed  the difficulties encountered by the IPCC ?
with hindsight, the difficulties encountered by the ipcc can be attributed to the differences in approach between biologists and other disciplines, particularly economists. studies in this area are, of necessity, correlational rather than experimental, and as a result, assignment of causation is inferential
What is happening when IPPC  is adopting the 'levels of confidence'11 and applying the economists'?
adopting the ipcc 'levels of confidence'11and applying the economists' view of a fingerprint, we would have "very high confidence" in a fingerprint if we estimated that more than 95% of observed changes were principally caused by climate change, "high confidence" between 95% and 67%, "medium confidence" between 33% and 67%, and "low confidence" below 33
the intergovernmental panel on climate change1(ipcc) assessed the extent to which recent observed changes in natural biological systems have been caused by climate change. this was a difficult task despite documented statistical correlations between changes in climate and biological changes2-5. with hindsight, the difficulties encountered by the ipcc can be attributed to the differences in approach between biologists and other disciplines, particularly economists. studies in this area are, of necessity, correlational rather than experimental, and as a result, assignment of causation is inferential. this inference often comes from experimental studies of the effects of temperature and precipitation on the target species or on a related species with similar habitats. confidence in this inferential process is subjective, and differs among disciplines, thus resulting in the first divergence of opinion within the ipcc. the second impasse came from differences in perspective on what constitutes an 'important' factor. anyone would consider a currently strong driver to be important, but biologists also attach importance to forces that are currently weak but are likely to persist. in contrast, economic approaches tend to discount events that will occur in the future, assigning little weight to weak but persistent forces. differences of opinion among disciplines can therefore stem naturally from whether the principal motivation is to assess the magnitude of immediate impacts or of long-term trajectories. most field biologists are convinced that they are already seeing important biological impacts of climate change1-4,6-9; however, they have encountered difficulty in convincing other academic disciplines, policy-makers and the general public. here, we seek to improve communication, provide common ground for discussion, and give a comprehensive summary of the evidence. how should a 'climate fingerprint' be defined? a straightforward view typical of an economist would be to conclude that climate change was important if it were principally responsible for a high proportion of current biotic changes. by this criterion a climate fingerprint appears weak. most short-term local changes are not caused by climate change but by land-use change and by natural fluctuations in the abundance and distribution of species. this fact has been used by non-biologists to argue that climate change is of little importance to wild systems10. this approach, however, effectively ignores small, systematic trends that may become important in the longer term. such underlying trends would be confounded (and often swamped) by strong forces such as habitat loss. biologists have tended to concentrate on studies that minimize confounding factors, searching for trends in relatively undisturbed systems and then testing for significant associations with climate change. economists have viewed this as biased (nonrandom exclusion of data) whereas biologists view this as reducing non-climatic noise. thus, economists focus on total direct evidence and apply heavy time discounting; biologists apply a 'quality control' filter to available data, accept indirect (inferential) evidence and don't apply time discounting. the test for a globally coherent climate fingerprint does not require that any single species show a climate change impact with 100% certitude. rather, it seeks some defined level of confidence in a climate change signal on a global scale. adopting the ipcc 'levels of confidence'11and applying the economists' view of a fingerprint, we would have "very high confidence" in a fingerprint if we estimated that more than 95% of observed changes were principally caused by climate change, "high confidence" between 95% and 67%, "medium confidence" between 33% and 67%, and "low confidence" below 33%. in contrast, the biologists' confidence level comes from the statistical probability that global biotic trends would match climate change predictions purely by chance, coupled with supporting experimental results showing causal relationships between climate and particular biological traits. here, we present quantitative estimates of the global biological impacts of climate change. we search for a climate fingerprint in the overall patterns, rather than critiquing each study individually. using the biologists' approach, we synthesize a suite of correlational studies on diverse taxa over many regions to ask whether natural systems, in general, have responded to recent climate change. furthermore, we attempt a cross-fertilization by applying an economists' measure--the estimated proportion of observed changes for which climate trends are the principal drivers--to data sets chosen using biologists' criteria. we call this a 'global coherence' approach to the detection of climate change impacts. first, we explore a biologists' confidence assessment with two types of analyses of observed change: statistical meta-analyses of effect size in restricted data sets and more comprehensive categorical analyses of the full literature. second, we present a probabilistic model that considers three variables: proportion of observations matching climate change predictions, numbers of competing explanations for each of those observations, and confidence in causal
How the statistical significance of the correlations and regressions is determined
the statistical significance of the correlations and regressions is determined using a monte carlo approach that mimics the calculations done with the data
How the correlations is determined
for the correlations, we first generate two sets of 96 (3 months times 32 years) independent, identically distributed (iid) normal random variates with zero mean and unit variance. then, "intraseasonal" anomalies are computed by removing the average of every set of three iid variates. next, the correlations between the two sets of anomalies are computed. these steps are repeated 1000 times and the resulting correlations are ordered from smallest to largest. the 25th and 975th values determine the 5% significance levels
What is done to get regressions
for the regressions, the iid variates are scaled to have the same variance as the leading reofs, and these are then used as the predictors for either precipitation or surface temperature at each gridpoint. this is carried out 1000 times (for every grid point) and the values are sorted from smallest to largest. the 950th (900th) value is the 5% (10%) significance value for each surface temperature (precipitation) regression
the statistical significance of the correlations and regressions is determined using a monte carlo approach that mimics the calculations done with the data. for the correlations, we first generate two sets of 96 (3 months times 32 years) independent, identically distributed (iid) normal random variates with zero mean and unit variance. then, "intraseasonal" anomalies are computed by removing the average of every set of three iid variates. next, the correlations between the two sets of anomalies are computed. these steps are repeated 1000 times and the resulting correlations are ordered from smallest to largest. the 25th and 975th values determine the 5% significance levels. for the regressions, the iid variates are scaled to have the same variance as the leading reofs, and these are then used as the predictors for either precipitation or surface temperature at each gridpoint. this is carried out 1000 times (for every grid point) and the values are sorted from smallest to largest. the 950th (900th) value is the 5% (10%) significance value for each surface temperature (precipitation) regression.
What does PoLA stand for in the paragraph?
port of los angeles
What is the key for challenge for planning mentioned in the text?
a key challenge for planning is to incorporate the possibility of such abrupt and impactful changes for which uncertainty is both deep and poorly characterized
one critical reason for turning to robust frameworks is the growing recognition of the potential for abrupt climate changes with important consequences for natural systems, human communities, and socioeconomic sectors.130-133a key challenge for planning is to incorporate the possibility of such abrupt and impactful changes for which uncertainty is both deep and poorly characterized. the port of los angeles (pola) is one of the largest container shipping facilities in the world, and it faces the challenges of planning for the uncertain probability but potentially large impact of extreme sea level rise over the coming century. such extremes can affect infrastructure investments but are difficult to incorporate into decision processes because of their deep uncertainties. complicating matters, available information about these factors may span a wide range of uncertainties, from well characterized to deep. both annual means and short-term extremes of future sea level are expected to differ in the future, due to effects such as thermal expansion, changes in oceanic structure, melting of land-based ice, shifts in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, and changes in the terrestrial water balance.134while some of these processes are relatively well understood, others remain deeply uncertain, such as rapid flows of land-based ice and changes in the frequency and intensity of future extreme wave events and storm surges.135-137
Who are growing increasingly aware of these threats?
as developing country governments and their international partners grow increasingly aware of these threats, they are turning to options for adapting to climate change in the development context
What is M&E?
monitoring and evaluation (m&e) of such initiatives, as they are implemented across the developing world, will be critically important for judging their effectiveness and making decisions on which efforts to scale up as climate impacts intensify
What does this paper aim to provide?
this paper aims to provide adaptation and development practitioners with a practical framework for developing m&e systems that can track the success and failure of adaptation initiatives in the development context
as developing country governments and their international partners grow increasingly aware of these threats, they are turning to options for adapting to climate change in the development context. however, the national, sectoral, and project-based adaptation plans and policies now emerging are largely in their infancy and relatively untested. monitoring and evaluation (m&e) of such initiatives, as they are implemented across the developing world, will be critically important for judging their effectiveness and making decisions on which efforts to scale up as climate impacts intensify. industrialized countries and donor agencies channeling billions of dollars into adaptation finance, including under the auspices of the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc), will require such systems as an important dimension to the adaptation initiatives they support. about this publication this paper aims to provide adaptation and development practitioners with a practical framework for developing m&e systems that can track the success and failure of adaptation initiatives in the development context. it is based upon a series of convenings, case studies, and interviews conducted by the world resources institute (wri) in collaboration with the deutsche gesellschaft fur internationale zusammenarbeit (giz) gmbh, with financial support from the german federal ministry for economic cooperation and development (bmz). in particular, the authors reviewed m&e systems in the planning and implementation stages for several relevant giz and kreditanstalt fur wiederaufbau bankengruppe (kfw or german development bank) natural resource management and adaptation projects in india.
What is analyzed to assess the ability of these models to reproduce the observed climatological seasonal precipitation in South America during the period 1970- 1999.
a subset of climate simulations of the 20th century from the ipcc-ar4
What is not wellrepresented in the models?
the precipitation in the sacz region and the precipitation maximum over southeastern south america observed during the cold season
What is the general consensus among models?
precipitation changes projected are mainly: i) an increase of summer precipitation over southeastern subtropical south america; ii) a reduction of winter precipitation over most of the continent; and iii) reduction of precipitation in all seasons along the southern andes
a subset of climate simulations of the 20th century from the ipcc-ar4 is analyzed to assess the ability of these models to reproduce the observed climatological seasonal precipitation in south america during the period 1970- 1999. changes of the model climatology in a climate change scenario (sresa1b) for the period 2070-2099 are also discussed. results show that models are able to reproduce the main features of the precipitation seasonal cycle over south america, although the precipitation in the sacz region and the precipitation maximum over southeastern south america observed during the cold season are not wellrepresented. there is a general consensus among models that the precipitation changes projected are mainly: i) an increase of summer precipitation over southeastern subtropical south america; ii) a reduction of winter precipitation over most of the continent; and iii) reduction of precipitation in all seasons along the southern andes. citation: vera, c., g. silvestri, b. liebmann, and p. gonza'lez (2006), climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in south america from ipcc-ar4 models, geophys. res. lett. 33 l13707, doi:10.1029/2006gl025759.
What is the mechanism that prevents the earth from freezing?
earth's silicate weathering thermostat
there are no completely satisfactory mechanisms that account for the initiation of snowball events. in particular, none of the proposed mechanisms explains why glaciations resume in the neoproterozoic after a billion-year absence. all the proposed mechanisms invoke some mechanism for drawing down co2 through geochemical or biogeochemical processes. the essential problem is accounting for the breakdown of earth's silicate weathering thermostat, which normally keeps the planet from freezing over. an important point concerning the thermostat: there are indications that, without the soil organic acids produced by land plants, the weathering rate becomes directly dependent on pco2 instead of just indirectly dependent on pco2 via its effect on temperature and rainfall (brady caroll 1994). the direct dependency makes the silicate weathering thermostat less effective and therefore makes the system more prone to breakdown, especially on the cold side (pierrehumbert 2010, chapter 8). if this is indeed a factor, it would imply that earth continued to be vulnerable to snowball glaciations up through the time land plants became common in the
Explain about the review?
this review has also showed that determining the probability of climate change cannot be resolved within what [q2]funtowicz and ravetz (1993) call 'normal' science (i.e. routine puzzle-solving by experts, whose knowledge serves as a base for policy decisions) or what morgan et al. (1999) call 'conventional tools for policy analysis' (e.g. utility theory, cost-benefit analysis, statistical decision theory and [q3]contingent valuation
What is  'postnormal science?
this is the case because climate change has numerous characteristics of 'postnormal science': uncertainty is pervasive, values are disputed, stakes are high, decisions are urgent and the system is 'reflexively complex
What is important for post-normal science?
for post-normal science, the decision-making process is as important as the research product. consequently, researchers need to further investigate the nature of decisionmaking in the context of probabilities and climate policy
this review has also showed that determining the probability of climate change cannot be resolved within what [q2]funtowicz and ravetz (1993) call 'normal' science (i.e. routine puzzle-solving by experts, whose knowledge serves as a base for policy decisions) or what morgan et al. (1999) call 'conventional tools for policy analysis' (e.g. utility theory, cost-benefit analysis, statistical decision theory and [q3]contingent valuation). this is the case because climate change has numerous characteristics of 'postnormal science': uncertainty is pervasive, values are disputed, stakes are high, decisions are urgent and the system is 'reflexively complex'. for post-normal science, the decision-making process is as important as the research product. consequently, researchers need to further investigate the nature of decisionmaking in the context of probabilities and climate policy.
In Indian government which body is responsible for urban development?
urban development falls under the purview of the state governments
Which agencies provide policy guidelines and funding to the state governments?
the ministry of urban development and the ministry of housing and urban poverty alleviation at the central government level are the nodal agencies for providing policy guidelines to the state governments as well as financial support in priority areas
Which constitutional amendment establishes the hierarchy of urban development responsibilities?
under the constitution's 74th amendment act
in india, urban development falls under the purview of the state governments, which, in turn, delegate related responsibilities to urban local bodies as envisaged under the constitution's 74th amendment act. the ministry of urban development and the ministry of housing and urban poverty alleviation at the central government level are the nodal agencies for providing policy guidelines to the state governments as well as financial support in priority areas. most of the time, a scheme or a policy is floated by a ministry and the states may implement it through their municipal bodies. here, the role of the respective ministries is more
At what level are the impacts of climate variability most acutely experienced?
the impacts of climate variability and extreme events are often most acutely experienced at the local level (ipcc, 2012), and they also usually occur over short time scales
What are the factors that shape food security, health and nutritional outcomes?
food security, health and nutritional outcomes are all the product of multiple interacting stressors, not just climate patterns
What are the main difficulties of enhancing food security for the world population?
enhancing food security for the 9.5 billion people projected by 2050, more than 86% of whom will be living in the less developed countries (undesa, 2013), will mean adapting biological and food systems to the increasingly variable climate and to increasingly frequent extreme events
fourth, enhancing food security for the 9.5 billion people projected by 2050, more than 86% of whom will be living in the less developed countries (undesa, 2013), will mean adapting biological and food systems to the increasingly variable climate and to increasingly frequent extreme events, which in turn will entail considerably enhanced understanding of the complex system of production, logistics, utilization of the produce, and the socioeconomic structure of communities (ipcc, 2012). this strongly supports the notion of viewing adaptation and vulnerability reduction not as discrete events but as processes through time, from the shorter term to the longer term. the impacts of climate variability and extreme events are often most acutely experienced at the local level (ipcc, 2012), and they also usually occur over short time scales. at local and short temporal scales, the uncertainties associated with their prediction may be at their largest. food security, health and nutritional outcomes are all the product of multiple interacting stressors, not just climate patterns. this could be one of the reasons the disaster relief community and the agricultural research for development community have not talked much together - the former has a "variability" orientation, the latter a "changing means" orientation. there are exceptions - for example, the story of weather forecasts for emergency aid provision in west africa in 2008 (tall et al., 2012) - but there do not seem to be many to date. there are surely synergies to be explored between these two communities of practice, particularly given rapid developments in the field of seamless prediction of weather and climate (brown et al., 2012; meehl et al., 2013). in time, seamless prediction may provide a bridge between the shorter term (days, weeks, season) and the longer term (years, decades) and between risk management and adaptation planning. using models to express uncertainty as the time intervals in which key changes are
Although key changes in lake hydrochemistry and biology can often be readily identified from such combined or separate time-series it is more difficult to explain change unless matching records of what?
potential drivers of change
How is nutrient history reconstructed?
diatom data to
Chironomid data reconstructs what?
temperature
although key changes in lake hydrochemistry and biology can often be readily identified from such combined or separate time-series it is more difficult to explain change unless matching records of potential drivers of change are also available. this is a special problem for palaeolimnology where independent data on the behaviour of explanatory variables are often 4 4 missing and where the sediment record itself is often used to derive such data, for example using diatom data to reconstruct nutrient history or chironomid data to reconstruct temperature (cf.lotter anderson, 2012). this inverse approach can lead to problems of circular reasoning and can present the analyst with an equifinality problem in which different drivers can exert pressures that produce identical outcomes, an issue especially relevant to nutrient problems in lakes where both cultural eutrophication and climate change can cause similar effects (moss et al ., 2011).
What is privatization?
policy interventions aimed at changing the rate of land conversion from communal to private land ownership when assessed in a solely economic manner display that continued rapid rates of land privatization can help to increase the overall value of cattle regionally and buffer some of the effects of climate change and/or degradation (fig. 7
Describe carbon storage declines?
as such, these model outputs fail to capture important effects on social capital, community cohesion, equality and/or poverty levels, and biodiversity or carbon storage declines that have important economic value and implications, but which remain difficult to feed into policy-making nationally
What is the ecosystem?
the need to value these broader ecosystem services is a vital next step required for research in this region, as in other drylands (turner and daily 2008). it is also important to note that results remain far from
policy interventions aimed at changing the rate of land conversion from communal to private land ownership when assessed in a solely economic manner display that continued rapid rates of land privatization can help to increase the overall value of cattle regionally and buffer some of the effects of climate change and/or degradation (fig. 7). when assessing these modeled outputs, it is when assessing these modeled outputs, it is important to note that they only display the predicted economic effects of different scenarios solely for the pastoral system and not the more diversified livelihood options practiced. as such, these model outputs fail to capture important effects on social capital, community cohesion, equality and/or poverty levels, and biodiversity or carbon storage declines that have important economic value and implications, but which remain difficult to feed into policy-making nationally. the need to value these broader ecosystem services is a vital next step required for research in this region, as in other drylands (turner and daily 2008). it is also important to note that results remain far from
What lack of research the developing world was poorly served by ?
on changes in the monsoon, el nino, and hurricanes; by a lack of attention to traditional crops such as pulses, roots and oilseeds; and by a lack of research on adaptive capacity, ecosystems and health in tropical regions
How the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) sought to impose discipline on the scientific debate about climate change through?
proposing the establishment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) in 1988, whose first assessment (in 1990) brought together information on the science, impacts and responses to climate change
Why the IPCC has been criticised ?
from both an empirical and constructivist perspective for, among other things, overstating certainty, having a northern bias, and forcing consensus
the resultant geographies of climate risk generally took the form of calculations and maps that were based on weak evidence as to changes in precipitation, ignored the transition to and beyond a co2 doubling, focused on yields of only a few crops and on water supply (rather than food security, health or ecosystems), did not take account of other social or environmental changes or of adaptation, and provided little information as to the vulnerabilities and impacts on individual countries, communities or individuals. the developing world was poorly served by a lack of research on changes in the monsoon, el nino, and hurricanes; by a lack of attention to traditional crops such as pulses, roots and oilseeds; and by a lack of research on adaptive capacity, ecosystems and health in tropical regions. nevertheless these assessments were enough to provoke a small but influential group of scientists to build the case for institutions and policies to coordinate research and responses to the risks of climate change. a series of meetings and reports between 1985 and the rio summit in 1992 laid the scientific groundwork for an international agreement on climate change.17the world meteorological organisation (wmo) sought to impose discipline on the scientific debate about climate change through proposing the establishment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) in 1988, whose first assessment (in 1990) brought together information on the science, impacts and responses to climate change. whilst the ipcc has been criticised from both an empirical and constructivist perspective for, among other things, overstating certainty, having a northern bias, and forcing consensus, it has become a powerful institution within the international climate regime and is a point of referral in negotiations and political declarations, receiving the nobel peace prize in 2007.18
projects which have a direct harmful effect on one objective could be?
the construction of huge hydropower plants in densely populated areas could be an example
What does DAC regulations define?
while dac regulations clearly define that projects which directly lead to cers will not be counted as oda (at least retrospectively), there is ample scope for preparatory action
An example of Danish development assistance?
denmark financed a broad energy program in malaysia. this was then followed by a cdm capacity building exercise, which then was replicated in thailand and indonesia (danida 2004). a key component of these programs is the development of projects that can generate cheap cers for denmark. it states bluntly that "these efforts will lead to synergy between development, global environment and the government's aim of securing a cost-efficient fulfillment of denmark's obligations towards the global climate" (danida 2004, p. 21
and things may be worse: so far, the discussion has covered projects with at least some complementary effect for both objectives. however, there may also be projects which have a direct harmful effect on one objective. the construction of huge hydropower plants in densely populated areas could be an example. emissions could be reduced, but at the same time, resettlements, social unrest and the loss of housing and productive assets would induce negative effects on poverty. moreover, bilateral donors might select their climate related activities based on the additional objective to reap direct benefits by obtaining cers. while dac regulations clearly define that projects which directly lead to cers will not be counted as oda (at least retrospectively), there is ample scope for preparatory action. increasingly, oda activities to support renewable energy and energy efficiency projects have been used to "graft" cdm programs. a typical example is danish development assistance. denmark financed a broad energy program in malaysia. this was then followed by a cdm capacity building exercise, which then was replicated in thailand and indonesia (danida 2004). a key component of these programs is the development of projects that can generate cheap cers for denmark. it states bluntly that "these efforts will lead to synergy between development, global environment and the government's aim of securing a cost-efficient fulfillment of denmark's obligations towards the global climate" (danida 2004, p. 21). clearly, the prime objective of such oda activities is neither poverty reduction, nor emission reduction for its own right.
What is the most important result from the investigation?
the most important result of this investigation is that the definition of vulnerability requires the specification of three primitives: the entity that is vulnerable, the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and a notion of "worse" and "better" with respect to the outcome
What is increasingly argued that the climate change community could benefit from?
it is increasingly argued that the climate change community could benefit from experiences gained in food security and natural hazards studies
What do preliminary findings show?
preliminary findings of this test include that the three determinants of vulnerability as identified by the ipcc correspond only in part with the three primitives of our formal framework and that ateam and dinas-coast have chosen not to specify the preorder on their models' respective outputs. instead, they specified several preorders on components of their outputs, leaving room for interpretation by the user
in this paper we presented the contours of a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change. the formal framework is based on a grammatical investigation that led from the everyday meaning of vulnerability to the technical usage in the context of climate change. the most important result of this investigation is that the definition of vulnerability requires the specification of three primitives: the entity that is vulnerable, the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and a notion of "worse" and "better" with respect to the outcome. section 3 presented a mathematical translation of this result, grounded in systems theory. in addition, it introduced refinements that capture the informal concepts of adaptive capacity and mitigation. section 4 served as a first test of the framework by assessing whether it can represent concepts used in recent work of which the authors have first-hand knowledge. preliminary findings of this test include that the three determinants of vulnerability as identified by the ipcc correspond only in part with the three primitives of our formal framework and that ateam and dinas-coast have chosen not to specify the preorder on their models' respective outputs. instead, they specified several preorders on components of their outputs, leaving room for interpretation by the user. however, it has not been the purpose of this paper to evaluate these projects, in particular because the current version of the framework is too rudimentary for such a task. a more important finding is that the preparation of this paper has allowed and motivated scientists from very different disciplines (the authors, workshop participants and informal reviewers) to communicate clearly about an issue of common interest, thereby enriching each others' understanding of the issue. at the same time, it has shown that there is scope for many refinements, specialisations and applications of the framework, which means that much work remains to be done to develop it into a useful tool. the definitions in this paper aimed at showing that a certain type of mathematical theory can account for a simplified grammar of vulnerability rather than at being of immediate use to researchers in the field. a major part of the work to be done will concern structural refinements: formulating stronger, more precise definitions for more complex systems, in a way that makes it 24 easy to deal with continuous time, stochasticity, fuzziness, multiple agents, multiple scales, etc the problems of optimisation, mitigation and maintaining adaptive capacity must be formulated for these systems in ways that relate them to questions arising in vulnerability assessments. to do so will enable us to incorporate results from the fields of control theory, game theory and decision theory, which was, after all, one of the main motivations for developing our framework. these theoretical developments should be accompanied by practical applications that elaborate on those in section 4. the analytical framework must be informed by the large body of results available from past case studies and by the needs of ongoing vulnerablity assessments. for example, we will interact with the case-study teams involved in the project newater so as to develop a systematic way of including indicator-based approaches in our framework. as mentioned in section 1, it is increasingly argued that the climate change community could benefit from experiences gained in food security and natural hazards studies. these communities have their own well-developed fields of research on vulnerability, although there are important differences with vulnerability assessment carried out in the context of climate change [5, 22]. the framework proposed in this paper could be used to analyse approaches to vulnerability assessment in these communities, as well as in the climate change community. this could make more explicit and thus lead to better understanding of the perceived and real differences between the respective models of vulnerability in use. moreover, it will serve to test the framework proposed here. it will be a challenge to see whether the framework can capture in mathematical terms the complexity and richness of individual communities, sectors and regions, as well as of the factors leading to their vulnerability. in addition, the value of the framework for qualitative approaches to vulnerability assessment needs to be demonstrated, especially in those places where data are scarce. on a final note, we realise that some may perceive a formal framework as limiting the flexibility required to capture the breadth and diversity of issues relevant to vulnerability assessment. others may consider the mathematical approach to developing the framework as an impediment to discussion and application. as stated before, the framework is not intended to be prescriptive, nor is it meant to exclude non-mathematical viewpoints on vulnerability. the least we hope to achieve is that our framework makes researchers aware of the potential confusion that can arise from not being precise about fundamental concepts underpinning their research. at the most, we hope they will recognise the potential benefits of testing, applying and further developing 25 the framework proposed here. every attempt has been made to make the formal description of the framework as accessible as possible to the mathematically challenged, a group that includes the second author of this paper.
What is an advantage of the Monod equation?
a great advantage of the monod equation resides in its structure that permits the representation in a continuous form of the range of variation between the extremes of lack and abundance of nutrients in the medium
What is a primary difference between the Monod and Michaelis-Menten equations for enzymatic relations?
the monod equation has the same form as the michaelis-menten equation for enzymatic relations (see chapter 7). however, while the latter is based on theoretical principles, the monod relation is essentially empirical
Can the Monod equation be utilized for multiple organisms' metabolization?
monod equation was derived for a single organism metabolising a single substrate
anaerobic treatment (van haandel and lettinga, 1994; chernicharo, 1997): u max 2.0 d- 1(acidogenic organisms) u max 0.4 d- 1(methanogenic organisms) u max 0.4 d- 1(combined biomass) ks [?] 200 mgcod/l (acidogenic organisms) ks [?] 50 mgcod/l (methanogenic organisms) certain types of organisms could of course have different coefficients from these global values. the monod equation has the same form as the michaelis-menten equation for enzymatic relations (see chapter 7). however, while the latter is based on theoretical principles, the monod relation is essentially empirical. another aspect is that the monod equation was derived for a single organism metabolising a single substrate. however, in wastewater treatment this assumption is not valid, since there is a multiple population assimilating a multiple substrate due to these aspects, the monod relation has been the target of criticism from the specialised literature. however, a more satisfactory relation has not yet been developed, and the monod equation maintains its importance, being adopted in practically all mathematical models of biological wastewater treatment. a great advantage of the monod equation resides in its structure that permits the representation in a continuous form of the range of variation between the extremes of lack and abundance of nutrients in the medium. therefore, depending on the value of s, the monod equation can represent approximately the kinetics of zero and first orders, as well as the transition between them. in the case of a substrate removal reaction, when its concentration is still high and not limiting, the global removal rate approaches the zero-order kinetics. with the consumption of the substrate, the reaction starts to decrease, characterising a transition or mixed-order region. when the substrate concentration is very low, the reaction rate starts to 386 basic principles of wastewater treatment be limited by its low availability in the medium. in these conditions, the reaction kinetics approach first order these two situations occur depending on the relative values of s and ks, as described below:
Which version of STATA was all data analyses compiled from?
stata version 9
Where are data and replication files available from?
http://jcr.sagepub.com/supplemental
Who were the research assistants?
papia debroy and shanna kirschner
author's note: for insightful comments and stimulating discussion, i thank michelle benson, charles boehmer, bill clark, han dorussen, dan drezner, erik gartzke, gary goertz, joe hewitt, paul ingram, barb koremenos, david lake, ed mansfield, sara mclaughlin mitchell, helen milner, jim morrow, tim nordstrom, john oliver, jon pevehouse, kathy powers, bruce russett, david sacko, rob salmond, ken schultz, megan shannon, beth simmons, duncan snidal, detlef sprinz, johannes urpelainen, and hugh ward. i thank papia debroy and shanna kirschner for excellent research assistance. all errors are my own. i conducted all data analyses in stata version 9; data and replication files are available at http://jcr.sagepub.com/supplemental. 243
What is the temperature of cold glaciers?
in cold glaciers where the basal ice temperature is below freezing, the annual ice layers typically thin towards zero thickness close to bedrock, and flow induced disturbances can limit the usefulness of the deepest part of ice cores13
Define NGRIP rates?
in contrast, at ngrip high rates of basal ice melting, estimated to be 7 mm yr2 1(refs 12, 14), remove the bottom layers, greatly restricting the thinning of the layers and the possibility of ice disturbances
What is the present-day accumulation?
whereas the present-day accumulation is 15% lower at ngrip than at grip, ngrip annual layer thicknesses at 105 kyr bp (depth 2,900 m) are of the order of 1.1 cm, twice that of grip ice of this age
the climate record of the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice d18o) from the ngrip ice core is shown in fig. 2 (and is available as supplementary information). in cold glaciers where the basal ice temperature is below freezing, the annual ice layers typically thin towards zero thickness close to bedrock, and flow induced disturbances can limit the usefulness of the deepest part of ice cores13. in contrast, at ngrip high rates of basal ice melting, estimated to be 7 mm yr2 1(refs 12, 14), remove the bottom layers, greatly restricting the thinning of the layers and the possibility of ice disturbances. whereas the present-day accumulation is 15% lower at ngrip than at grip, ngrip annual layer thicknesses at 105 kyr bp (depth 2,900 m) are of the order of 1.1 cm, twice that of grip ice of this age.
What was the first WTP question of the questionnaire?
first, they were asked if they would be willing to bear extra household expenses each month on behalf of their entire household to support the cprs (hereafter called the 'first wtp question
What was used as the payment vehicle?
increased prices of goods and services was used as the payment vehicle
Why was this payment vehicle used?
this vehicle was deemed to be the most realistic option given the policy context. the vehicle is also considered to 8 8 be fair as it is based on the polluter's pay principle (macmillan et al. 1996
in the valuation part of the questionnaire, respondents were asked two sequential wtp questions. first, they were asked if they would be willing to bear extra household expenses each month on behalf of their entire household to support the cprs (hereafter called the 'first wtp question'). increased prices of goods and services was used as the payment vehicle. this vehicle was deemed to be the most realistic option given the policy context. the vehicle is also considered to 8 8 be fair as it is based on the polluter's pay principle (macmillan et al. 1996). however, this vehicle may cause some degree of positive bias as some respondents may say 'yes' to the offered bid level thinking that they would be able to control their household expenses by adjusting their behavior in the changed price regime.
When was the first decision made?
first decision made 14 march 2011
When we the manuscript accepted?
manuscript accepted 10 september 2011
The journal provides supporting information supplied by the authors as a service to who?
as a service to our authors and readers
supplemental literature cited. appendix s2 list of the elevational gradients for each vertebrate group used to model climate change risk, including details on locality, citation, mountain height, study scale, number of species, percentage of species only at single elevation, climate, region of ipcc climate change predictions, and the average extirpation risk under the various models. appendix s3 supplementary methods. as a service to our authors and readers, this journal provides supporting information supplied by the authors. such materials are peer-reviewed and may be re-organised for online delivery, but are not copy edited or typeset. technical support issues arising from supporting information (other than missing files) should be addressed to the authors. editor, lauren buckley manuscript received 2 february 2011 first decision made 14 march 2011 second decision made 25 may 2011 manuscript accepted 10 september 2011
What program does the text talk about?
the consortium of international agricultural research centers (cgiar) research program on climate change, agriculture and food security (ccafs
What is the partnership mentioned?
is a strategic partnership of the cgiar and the earth system science partnership (essp
Who is the program supported by?
he program is supported by the european union, the united states agency for international development, the canadian international development agency, the new zealand ministry of foreign affairs and trade, the danish international development agency, the uk department for international development, irish aid, and the instituto de investigac, ~ao cient'ifica tropical, portugal, with technical support from ifad
the consortium of international agricultural research centers (cgiar) research program on climate change, agriculture and food security (ccafs) is a strategic partnership of the cgiar and the earth system science partnership (essp). the program is supported by the european union, the united states agency for international development, the canadian international development agency, the new zealand ministry of foreign affairs and trade, the danish international development agency, the uk department for international development, irish aid, and the instituto de investigac, ~ao cient'ifica tropical, portugal, with technical support from ifad. the views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not of the cgiar, the essp, and their funders. the authors thank cheng peng, tamma carleton, and maja juul toft for assistance with finding and sorting literature; lini wollenberg, andy jarvis, and tara garnett for comments; and tom tomich for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript. literature cited
what were the Norse Greenlanders?
the norse greenlanders were certainly highly competent seal hunters who made use of nets and probably communal boat drives aimed at the millions of migrating harp phoca groenlandicus and hooded seals cystophora cristata arriving along the coast of west greenland in spring
what do Isotopic evidence from human remains indicate ?
isotopic evidence from human remains clearly indicates an increasing marine component in norse diet in greenland, suggesting that the seal hunt and other marine foraging played a progressively more vital role in subsistence (arneborg, et al. 1999
what was a key resource to the Faroese In times of subsistence crisis?
in times of subsistence crisis, whales have provided a key resource to the faroese, a point vividly demonstrated during the second world war when in 1941 a.d. a record catch of 4,325 pilot whales provided a vital food supply
while the norse middens do not contain harpoons or the ringed seals usually taken with such gear, the norse greenlanders were certainly highly competent seal hunters who made use of nets and probably communal boat drives aimed at the millions of migrating harp phoca groenlandicus and hooded seals cystophora cristata arriving along the coast of west greenland in spring. these hugely abundant migratory species were rare or absent in the rest of the viking age north atlantic, and they presented a far richer resource, and one much less likely to be depleted by large scale exploitation, than the small resident harbor phoca vitulina and grey seal halichoerus gryphus colonies of iceland or the british isles. norse archaeofauna in greenland from the earliest phases have far more seal bones than appear in any of the other north atlantic bone collections (perdikaris and mcgovern in press c), and there is a general tendency for the relative percentages of seal bones to increase through time--topping 70% of the total in some smaller sites (mcgovern et al 1996, mcgovern 2000). isotopic evidence from human remains clearly indicates an increasing marine component in norse diet in greenland, suggesting that the seal hunt and other marine foraging played a progressively more vital role in subsistence (arneborg, et al. 1999). norse migratory seal hunting in greenland was thus both highly productive and capable of expansion and intensifi cation, and the norse communal seal hunters were not only able to provision their communities without inuit technology, but also capable of continuing to expand seal catches as long as labor and boats were available. the norse seal hunters were thus no less competent than the inuit, but they made far greater use of pooled communal labor and carefully scheduled targeting of seasonal concentrations of migratory seals rather than more individualistic year-round sealing with harpoons from kayak or ice edge. communal seal harvesting, which probably involved most active adults in the community and distributed seal meat to every farm (even far inland), must have had a signifi cant social dimension, hedged about with tradition and representing an annual expression of communal solidarity and cooperation (mcgovern 1985a, 1991). the faroe islands, where hunting of the pilot whale globicephala melus has occurred for at least 500 years and probably since the viking age and has provided a signifi cant part of the staple diet for centuries, may provide a social as well as economic model for communal seal hunting in greenland (gibson-lonsdale 1990; guttesen 1996). in times of subsistence crisis, whales have provided a key resource to the faroese, a point vividly demonstrated during the second world war when in 1941 a.d. a record catch of 4,325 pilot whales provided a vital food supply (guttesen 1996:90). the immediate and total mobilization of all active community members for a pilot whale drive remains a key element in modern faroese society, enhanced rather than diminished by the availability
who is most vulnerable to climate change?
poor countries
what is the uk doing about it?
the uk government is taking a lead in international action to instigate mitigation measures and assist developing countries to adapt, for which it needs the support of the public
how were the Guardian and the Independent's speeches about climate change?
discourses concerned about likely severe impacts have dominated coverage in the guardian and the independent since 1997, and in all papers since 2006
the science of climate change is full of uncertainty, but the greater vulnerability of poor countries to the impacts of climate change is one aspect that is widely acknowledged. the uk government is taking a lead in international action to instigate mitigation measures and assist developing countries to adapt, for which it needs the support of the public. the media plays a critical role in influencing public opinion, yet there has been no analysis of media portrayals of climate change and international development. this paper uses dryzek's (2005) 'components' approach to discourse analysis to explore the media construction of climate change and development. eight discourses were identified from these articles based on the entities recognised, assumptions about natural relationships, agents and their motives, rhetorical devices and normative judgements. they showed a wide range of opinions regarding the impacts of climate change on development and the appropriate action to be taken. discourses concerned about likely severe impacts have dominated coverage in the guardian and the independent since 1997, and in all papers since 2006; previously discourses proposing that climate change was a low development priority had formed the coverage in the times and the telegraph. overall, results demonstrate media perceptions of a rising sense of an impending catastrophe for a developing world that will be defenceless without the help of the west. this has implications for public understanding of, and government responses to, climate change and international development.
What are the effects of extraordinary spring pollen counts recorded in North America in recent years?
extraordinary spring pollen counts have been recorded in north america in recent years, and the early arrival of spring is extending the spring allergy and asthma seasons, with implications for increased risk of respiratory and allergic diseases
What results in greater air pollution?
growing evidence indicates that warmer and drier climates will result in an increased area burned by bushfires (25), resulting in greater air pollution
changing climate conditions and increasing temperatures will compromise outdoor air quality by increasing the production of tropospheric ozone (18). ozone exposure will contribute to increased respiratory tract irritation, chronic pulmonary disease hospitalizations (19), and lung disease mortality (13, 20). the fine-particle air pollution arising from the fuel cycles for fossil fuels not only cause climate change but also increase the risk of acute respiratory infections (21). extraordinary spring pollen counts have been recorded in north america in recent years, and the early arrival of spring is extending the spring allergy and asthma seasons, with implications for increased risk of respiratory and allergic diseases (22-24). growing evidence indicates that warmer and drier climates will result in an increased area burned by bushfires (25), resulting in greater air pollution. more intense bush fires may therefore increase the risk of respiratory illness (and also cardiovascular events), particularly among susceptible groups such as asthmatics, children, and the elderly (26).
Is the cost per child relative to interventions for child health considered to be high or low?
the costs of interventions for child health, while requiring large investments to meet the mdgs, result in costs per child that are relatively low
Which interventions are considered to be cost-effective?
water and sanitation interventions are highly cost-effective (hutton, haller and bartram, 2007
Which costs are likely to be under-estimated, considering they only address a narrow range of public health measures?
the costs of the nutrition interventions are likely to be under-estimated as they address only a narrow range of public health measures
as table 4.1 shows, the costs of interventions for child health, while requiring large investments to meet the mdgs, result in costs per child that are relatively low. water and sanitation interventions are highly cost-effective (hutton, haller and bartram, 2007). further, improvements in water supply and sanitation, and other environmental interventions, have multiple benefits (e.g. for education and welfare), not all of which are accounted for. the costs of the nutrition interventions are likely to be under-estimated as they address only a narrow range of public health measures. the annual per capita cost of providing food to improve child health in africa has been estimated to be much higher (edejer et al., 2005). ebi (2008) estimated that including such costs would increase the adaptation costs more than 10-fold. the conservative approach used also avoids any double counting with the agriculture sector adaptation costs that include the cost of feeding more people (see chapter 2, wheeler and tiffin, in this report).
What needs to be placed at the forefront of the debate on adapting to climate change?
poverty
Urbanisation is linked to an increase in what type of vulnerability?
environmental
the management of health eff ects of climate change related to shelter and human settlements requires not only secure emergency shelter for those displaced or aff ected by climate variability events, but also human settlements prepared for the future climate-changed environment. the process of urbanisation in the developing world is structurally linked to increased environmental vulnerability, with a high percentage of the urban population exposed to climate-related hazards, such as fl oods and landslides, as well as to related health problems, such as disease and injury. climate change increases this vulnerability, especially for the poorest and most powerless groups in society, as they often have not been given opportunities to adapt. thus, poverty reduction needs to be placed at the forefront of the debate on adapting human settlements to climate change.
What analysis technique was used in the tidal area, to assess the water levels and salt intrusion?
in the tidal area, the assessment of the water levels and salt intrusion was carried out by executing a monte carlo analysis using a onedimensional hydrodynamic model with different sea levels and upstream boundary conditions
What model was used in order to estimate the effects on groundwater, agriculture and water level management of lakes and small ditches?
a national groundwater and water distribution model is used to estimate the effects on groundwater, agriculture, and water level management of lakes and small ditches
What tools were used in order to simulate river discharges in the Rhine and Meuse basins, and to allow the generation of the synthetic discharge series?
for rivers and estuaries, the tools include a hydrological-hydraulic system to simulate river discharges in the rhine and meuse basins42,43as well as a weather generator to allow generating synthetic discharge series
for rivers and estuaries, the tools include a hydrological-hydraulic system to simulate river discharges in the rhine and meuse basins42,43as well as a weather generator to allow generating synthetic discharge series.44a hydraulic modeling system allows simulating water levels as well as water quality in the southwest estuary and tidal areas.45,46in the tidal area, the assessment of the water levels and salt intrusion was carried out by executing a monte carlo analysis using a onedimensional hydrodynamic model with different sea levels and upstream boundary conditions. a national groundwater and water distribution model is used to estimate the effects on groundwater, agriculture, and water level management of lakes and small ditches.47-49an ecological model is used to assess the effects on the availability and quality of habitats.50
Why the Artemisia species pollen season grew longer?
due to a clear advance in the starting day and only a slightly earlier end point; the peak day also came slightly earlier
What's the connection between the pollen and temperature?
rainfall in the fi rst fortnight of july highly infl uenced pollen season severity. temperature was directly correlated with daily artemisiaspecies pollen levels; relative humidity was inversely correlated. twelve percent of patients had a positive spt reaction to artemisiaspecies
What are the symptoms?
their symptoms were rhinitis and conjunctivitis (15%), atopic dermatitis (15%), chronic urticaria (14.3%), bronchial asthma (2.4%), and facial and disseminated dermatitis (1.3
theartemisia species pollen season grew longer due to a clear advance in the starting day and only a slightly earlier end point; the peak day also came slightly earlier. rainfall in the fi rst fortnight of july highly infl uenced pollen season severity. temperature was directly correlated with daily artemisiaspecies pollen levels; relative humidity was inversely correlated. twelve percent of patients had a positive spt reaction to artemisiaspecies. their symptoms were rhinitis and conjunctivitis (15%), atopic dermatitis (15%), chronic urticaria (14.3%), bronchial asthma (2.4%), and facial and disseminated dermatitis (1.3%). elevated specifi c ige concentrations were detected in the sera of 10.1% of patients.
Why the reason fisherman left from the country nigeria ?
suffering from the rain water shortage which made the river very shallow and decreased my fish production, which had negative implications on my income
Write the name of nigirian fisherman village ?
sirba
What is meant by Sirba ?
tilaberi, niger
in another study in burkina faso, researchers found that people from drier regions are more likely to migrate temporarily and to a lesser extent permanently to other rural areas (rural-rural migration), compared with people from wetter areas. a rainfall deficit increases the rural-rural migration but decreases migration to abroad. no rush to cities has been observed during periods of drought.71 a fisherman in the village of sirba (tilaberi, niger) recounts, "i have been suffering from the rain water shortage which made the river very shallow and decreased my fish production, which had negative implications on my income. if the situation does not improve, i might leave for another country like some of my friends and relatives did; they left for nigeria and burkina faso and settled there."72
What is essential in high Environmental Susceptibility sites?
in high environmental susceptibility sites it is essential that development strategies do not make local communities or industries more dependent on reef-based resources that are at risk
What does Tanzania currently lack?
tanzania currently lacks an effective system of large fisheries closures, protecting only 66 km2 (1.9%) of its reefs from fishing
What area of the reef is protected shown in Table 1?
currently only 10.4 km2 (0.5%) of their reef area is protected (table 1
sites in madagascar, tanzania, and kenya all showed low to moderate adaptive capacity, but highly variable environmental susceptibility (fig. 1 b ). our framework suggests that development of adaptive capacity is a prioritythroughout these countries. conservation strategies at sites with low environmental susceptibility should focus on integrated conservation and development with, for example, investments in income generation and livelihood diversification. in high environmental susceptibility sites it is essential that development strategies do not make local communities or industries more dependent on reef-based resources that are at risk. we find that the current conservation strategies in these countries are not aligned with the approaches suggested by our framework. for example, kenyan reefs are susceptible to bleaching, suggesting that they are unlikely to sustain a high-quality tourist experience. yet kenya has a moderately large marine protected area fisheries closure system (8.6% of its reef area, table 1) that is highly dependent on tourism. therefore, the sustainability of this protection strategy under climate change scenarios is questionable. in tanzania, some sites generally have higher adaptive capacity and lower environmental susceptibility, suggesting that investment in more protection could be effective. however, tanzania currently lacks an effective system of large fisheries closures, protecting only 66 km2 (1.9%) of its reefs from fishing. most sites in madagascar have low environmental susceptibility and consequently are expected to fare better than reefs in tanzania and kenya, yet currently only 10.4 km2 (0.5%) of their reef area is protected (table 1). the madagascar government's commitment to triple the amount of protected areas is critical to regional conservation, but since madagascar had extremely low overall levels of adaptive capacity, this must be accompanied by investing in community development efforts such that local people can cope and comply with, and benefit from protected areas.
What would the changes caused by the temperature gradient do to climatic factors?
in turn, such changes would affect precipitation, humidity, seasonality, and other climatic factors. the complexities of these systems, along with the complexity of all the behavioral and ecologic factors that influence transmission, make it impossible to predict their impact on the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. however, some generalizations are permissible
Why would climate control make a difference?
this change of the temperature gradient would alter the world's wind and ocean circulations
What would be the downfall to this occurrence?
 the complexities of these systems, along with the complexity of all the behavioral and ecologic factors that influence transmission, make it impossible to predict their impact on the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. however, some generalizations are permissible
models of climate change that attempt to project the potential impact of increased levels of greenhouse gases indicate that the degree of future warming is likely to be greatest close to the poles 4,179 ). this change of the temperature gradient would alter the world's wind and ocean circulations. in turn, such changes would affect precipitation, humidity, seasonality, and other climatic factors. the complexities of these systems, along with the complexity of all the behavioral and ecologic factors that influence transmission, make it impossible to predict their impact on the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. however, some generalizations are permissible.
What are challenges faced when defining climate targets?
defining a climate target, and deciding who needs to do how much to achieve it, are normative problems that depend on values and world views, on arguments about fairness and on ethics
What can be said of some individual scientists?
some individual scientists are more outspoken and find even the 2 degc target "utterly inadequate"25, or state that "it would seem difficult for the risk averse among us to accept anything much above that [1 degc] as the standard for dai [dangerous anthropogenic interference]"41
What has been remarkable about the scientific community?
the scientific community has been remarkably silent on defending specific climate targets
defining a climate target, and deciding who needs to do how much to achieve it, are normative problems that depend on values and world views, on arguments about fairness and on ethics. but science can and should contribute to this discussion and point out the consequences of different proposals35-37. some of the very early work has motivated the characterization of a 'safe climate' by looking at variations in past climate38,39, and this historical perspective is still relevant27; a warming of more than 2 degc would exceed temperature levels of the past several million years, and would move climate outside the bounds of the epoch in which our society developed. a comparison with the past is relevant for natural systems, but not straightforward for human systems. our technologies for reducing risks are now much more advanced than just a century ago. on the other hand, the planet today also needs to sustain more than seven billion people, a number that is still growing. there is no doubt that unmitigated climate change will take us outside a climate regime that humanity has experienced. it is extremely likely that most of the warming since about 1950 is human-induced13, and it is therefore in our control to either halt it or let it go unmitigated. the 2 degc target as a policy goal can be traced back to the early 1990s40. the ipcc frames the discussion in terms of risk, and finds high risks associated with warming above 2 degc. the ipcc has also laid out the normative issues, but is not defending a target because its mandate does not allow it to be policy-prescriptive. some individual scientists are more outspoken and find even the 2 degc target "utterly inadequate"25, or state that "it would seem difficult for the risk averse among us to accept anything much above that [1 degc] as the standard for dai [dangerous anthropogenic interference]"41. most of the literature, however, stops after a list of ethical dimensions and possible criteria, and leaves open the question of how to balance risk against feasibility and mitigation costs. the scientific community has been remarkably silent on defending specific climate targets. one reason is certainly that attempts to have an honest and respectful discussion about climate change, even if values are made explicit8, often turn into an ideological fight, dominated by opinions of what needs
In developing emission pathways for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 regions it is necessary to make what?
in developing emission pathways for annex 1 and non-annex 1 regions it is necessary to make explicit which region is deemed responsible for which emissions
While the following analysis focuses specifically on the period 2000-2100, it is important to what?
while the following analysis focuses specifically on the period 2000-2100, it is important to reflect briefly on the treatment of recent historical emissions
Given temperature correlates with cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, a case could be made for considering the responsibility for what?
given temperature correlates with cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, a case could be made for considering the responsibility for twentieth century emissions in apportioning future twenty-first century emission-space between annex 1 and non-annex 1 regions
in developing emission pathways for annex 1 and non-annex 1 regions it is necessary to make explicit which region is deemed responsible for which emissions. while the following analysis focuses specifically on the period 2000-2100, it is important to reflect briefly on the treatment of recent historical emissions. given temperature correlates with cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, a case could be made for considering the responsibility for twentieth century emissions in apportioning future twenty-first century emission-space between annex 1 and non-annex 1 regions. however, the highly constrained emission-space now remaining for a 2-3*c rise in global mean surface temperature leaves little option but to explicitly neglect the responsibility of historical emissions in developing pragmatic twenty-first century emission profiles.17getting an appropriate balance of responsibilities is a matter of judgement that inevitably will not satisfy all stakeholders and certainly will be open to challenge. as it stands, the approach adopted for this paper in which historical (and deforestation) emissions are taken to be global overheads,18is a pragmatic decision that, if anything, errs in favour of the annex 1 nations.19
Does the extra latent heat available through increased sea surface temperatures and higher precipitation rates have the potential to increase the intensity of atmospheric disturbances?
the extra latent heat available through increased sea surface temperatures and higher precipitation rates has the potential to increase the intensity of atmospheric disturbances
Is the destructive power of hurricanes increasing?
both theoretical emanuel 1987 and recent observational evidence emanuel 2005 suggest an increase in the destructive power of the most extreme hurricanes
Can this increase be attributed to increases in sea surface temperatures?
some, but not all, of this increase can be attributed to increases in sea surface temperatures, but that warming may be a result of natural climate variability rather than increasing greenhouse gases
the extra latent heat available through increased sea surface temperatures and higher precipitation rates has the potential to increase the intensity of atmospheric disturbances. both theoretical emanuel 1987 and recent observational evidence emanuel 2005 suggest an increase in the destructive power of the most extreme hurricanes. for example, emanuel (2005) considered the contribution from the wind speed cubed (assumed to be a measure of destructive power) and the duration of hurricanes observed over the last 30 years. some, but not all, of this increase can be attributed to increases in sea surface temperatures, but that warming may be a result of natural climate variability rather than increasing greenhouse gases. webster et al (2005) also found an increase in the frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the period since 1970. most climate models do not resolve tropical storms adequately, and hence rely on the correlation between large-scale circulation indices and hurricanes to estimate the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. simulations using regional models which do resolve tropical storms suggest a modest increase
Are there any viral diseases from the Bunyaviridae family which are human-borne?
dynamics of rodent-borne human viral diseases hantaviruses, which belong to the bunyaviridae family, are unique in being transmitted by rodents; all other genera in this family are arthropod-borne9
this meeting brought together experts from the fi elds of climate research, human and veterinary medicine and biology to discuss recent scientifi c evidence relating to the potential infl uences of climate change on communicable diseases. presentations at this meeting provided case studies for a wide range of threats to human and animal health. dynamics of rodent-borne human viral diseases hantaviruses, which belong to the bunyaviridae family, are unique in being transmitted by rodents; all other genera in this family are arthropod-borne9. there is evidence to show that hantavirus global epidemiology is driven by local rodent population dynamics (the main rodent species in europe are the yellow-necked mouse and the bank vole). for example, there is accumulating information that the dynamics of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (hfrs, caused by puumala hantavirus) in finland, where there has been a dramatic increase in clinical incidence since 1990, can be attributed to changes in the geographical synchrony of vole cycles. rodent population dynamics are infl uenced both by direct and indirect climatic effects on local biodiversity in europe, for example changes in seasonality and precipitation patterns associated with the north atlantic oscillation (a large-scale pattern of natural climate variability in the north atlantic ocean). recent research from literature cited at the greifswald meeting (ims et al. 2008) identifi es climate forcing as the underlying cause for collapsing population cycles in voles. however, interpretation of the experimental data remains challenging because only short time-series observations are available and there is imperfect understanding of the time-lag between environmental change and clinical infection. in addition, any attempts to predict the temporal and spatial risk of climate change on hantavirus infection in temperate and boreal europe must recognise that the complex fl uctuations in rodent population dynamics are also infl uenced by predator populations (in turn also subject to climate change impact), changes in landscape and variations in distribution of different virus carrier species. moreover, although warming will affect the distribution and dynamics of rodent carrier species and their food supply, the assessment of any hantavirus infection also needs to take account of changes in human behaviour (such as rural tourism) and governmental policy (particularly relating to housing and agriculture in rural areas) that will increase human exposure to the vector and host in forest habitats. clinical emergence of arboviral diseases arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) cause more than 130 human diseases, for example wnf, japanese encephalitis, tbe, chikungunya and dengue, with mosquitoes, ticks and sand-fl ies serving as the principal vectors. the basic transmission cycle involves arthropod-animal host amplifi cation, with humans acting as a dead-end host (whose viraemia (presence of virus in the blood) does not achieve a suffi ciently high level to infect arthropods). experimental studies show that increasing temperature variably infl uences the survival rates of immature and mature forms of the vector but consistently shortens the extrinsic incubation period (the interval between initial receipt of infective agent and attainment of infectiousness).
What is the cost of avoiding climate change?
according to the uk government commissioned stern review on the economics of climate change in 2006, if we do everything we can now to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and ensure we adapt to the future eff ects of climate change, the average estimated cost is 1% of the world gross domestic product (gdp) every year.14 however, if we do nothing, the eff ects of climate change could cost 5-20% of the world gdp every year
Effect of global warming?
these fi gures have been disputed. pielke and colleagues5 argue that the cost of converting the global economy to low carbon could be more than 1% of the world gdp because global emissions have risen faster than the worst predictions. stern has recently revised the estimate to 2% of the world gdp. however, parry and colleagues12 suggest that the eff ects and the associated costs of global warming have been underestimated by the ipcc1 and stern.14 the potential costs or benefi ts to global health of mitigating and adapting have not yet been established
What are the benefits of tackling global warming?
even if the benefi t-cost ratio of solving global warming is less than that suggested by stern, the ethical issue of preventing deaths of tens of millions of people and the increase in human misery for billions is clear
what is the cost of avoiding climate change? according to the uk government commissioned stern review on the economics of climate change in 2006, if we do everything we can now to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and ensure we adapt to the future eff ects of climate change, the average estimated cost is 1% of the world gross domestic product (gdp) every year.14 however, if we do nothing, the eff ects of climate change could cost 5-20% of the world gdp every year. these fi gures have been disputed. pielke and colleagues5 argue that the cost of converting the global economy to low carbon could be more than 1% of the world gdp because global emissions have risen faster than the worst predictions. stern has recently revised the estimate to 2% of the world gdp. however, parry and colleagues12 suggest that the eff ects and the associated costs of global warming have been underestimated by the ipcc1 and stern.14 the potential costs or benefi ts to global health of mitigating and adapting have not yet been established. even if the benefi t-cost ratio of solving global warming is less than that suggested by stern, the ethical issue of preventing deaths of tens of millions of people and the increase in human misery for billions is clear.
How Many times they measure the carbon dioxide fluxes?
carbon dioxide fluxes were measured once per week using a dynamic chamber technique
Where was the sensor?
the sensor was mounted inside the chamber and was read using an external analog meter connected by a wire
carbon dioxide fluxes were measured once per week using a dynamic chamber technique whereby a clear plastic chamber was placed into the groove of the collars, and water was poured into the groove to create a gas seal between the interior of the chamber and the surroundings. the temperature inside the chamber was maintained within 5  c of the ambient temperature using a cooling system, consisting of a radiator supplied with cold water. the internal air temperature was monitored with a thermocouple incorporated into the chamber. the amount of photosynthetically active radiation (par) was measured using a li-cor quantum sensor (units of l mol m) 2s) 1of light). the sensor was mounted inside the chamber and was read using an external analog meter connected by a wire.
Who is the chairman of the OECD?
rt. hon. simon upton is chairman of the organisation for economic cooperation and development (oecd) round table on sustainable development in paris, france
How many years he served as a Member of the New Zealand House of Representatives?
prior to this he served 19 years as a member of the new zealand house of representatives, including 9 years as a minister
What is the educational qulifications of Rt. Hon. Simon Upton?
he holds degrees in english literature, music and law from the university of auckland, new zealand and a mlitt in political philosophy from oxford university, where he was a rhodes scholar
rt. hon. simon upton is chairman of the organisation for economic cooperation and development (oecd) round table on sustainable development in paris, france. prior to this he served 19 years as a member of the new zealand house of representatives, including 9 years as a minister. his portfolios included environment, research science and technology and health. he is a member of the van lennep eminent persons group on subsidies sponsored by the international institute for sustainable development, and a member of the advisory board to the holcim foundation for sustainable construction. he holds degrees in english literature, music and law from the university of auckland, new zealand and a mlitt in political philosophy from oxford university, where he was a rhodes scholar.
What is the principal cause of morrality in developing countries?
diarrhoea is one of the principal causes of mortality and morbidity especially in developing countries
What does this study quantify?
this study quantifies the impacts of rainfall and temperature on the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases
What can be said of the temperature in terms of contributing to incidence of mortality?
ambient temperature could also contribute to the incidence of diarrhoea
diarrhoea is one of the principal causes of mortality and morbidity especially in developing countries. some data suggest that 4 billion episodes of diarrhoea occurred each year, of which more than 90% occurred in developing countries.1many investigations have reported seasonal coincidence of the peak of diarrhoea incidence with the rainy season in tropical regions.2however, these studies did not address the direct association between rainfall and diarrhoea allowing for the potential confounding by seasonally varying factors other than rainfall. ambient temperature could also contribute to the incidence of diarrhoea.3clarifying the potential role of weather on the transmission of diarrhoeal diseases could help by bringing a deeper insight into the mechanisms of the seasonality of the disease. this study quantifies the impacts of rainfall and temperature on the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases. overall relationships of non-cholera diarrhoea are particularly focused on here because cholera has been known to have a strong link to weather factors,4while that of the rest of diarrhoeal diseases is less clear.5population factors potentially affecting vulnerability to the effect of the climate factors are also examined. to have some insight into the causal pathways between rainfall and diarrhoea, the association with river levels was also investigated.
Definition of urban planing regualtions ?
the definition of urban planning regulations for the extension of chp supply in development areas and the development of quality standards for the outsourcing of decentralized chp generation in housing estates
SMEs in the field of CHP have established in which country ?
berlin
Usage of CHP ?
the extension of chp supply in development areas and the development of quality standards for the outsourcing of decentralized chp generation in housing estates
monstadt, 2004: 363-90; senat von berlin, 2003). since the 1980s several smes in the field of chp have established themselves in berlin. due to the dense settlement structure, the locational factors in berlin are favourable for these companies. similarly, owing to the fiscal crisis, the regional promotion of chp shifted from the subsidization of individual projects and companies towards the definition of urban planning regulations for the extension of chp supply in development areas and the development of quality standards for the outsourcing of decentralized chp generation in housing estates. however, the regional chp market came under pressure due to the liberalization of energy markets. since then, the extension of decentralized chp has largely come to a standstill. the further growth of the regional chp industry has been limited to individual projects in installation contracting and the extension of micro chp, which profit from a special bonus for
here are few other large-scale options in what term?
medium term
all sorts of technologies might be feasible beyond when?
2030
Policy-makers are, however, faced with a plethora of what?
technology advocates and lobbyists
in the medium term, there are few other large-scale options. but beyond 2030 all sorts of technologies might be feasible. there are good reasons for expecting rapid technological progress: both from a funding perspective and from the technological research options. there is no shortage of energy (the sun rises every day), and a host of theoretical ways to translate energy into usable forms. it might even be possible to use large-scale atmospheric engineering: by extracting carbon directly (rather than from coal power stations), and even by changing the reflectivity and absorption capacity of the atmosphere.33none of these more speculative ideas has yet produced convincing practical applications, but then this is not to be expected. the point about r&d is just that: to find out what solutions might be available. policy-makers are, however, faced with a plethora of technology advocates and lobbyists, all trying to gain access to the 'technology pork barrel' (cohen and noll, 1991). this
What may vary from those readily available as secondary data (for example from Statistics Canada), to primary data collected as an integral part of projects conducted under NRE2?
sources for the indicator measurement may vary from those readily available as secondary data (for example from statistics canada), to primary data collected as an integral part of projects conducted under nre2
What have to be resolved to make results comparable?
differences in types of data collected for each indicator have to be resolved to make results comparable
What were initial assessments for each indicator transformed into in order to to achieve some commonality?
to achieve some commonality, initial assessments for each indicator were transformed into scores based on a likert scale (0-10
adaptive capacity for climate change 379 for other rural community studies, although the logic behind their choice can. it is assumed that researchers working in the field of community capacity could take the framework and approach presented here and modify them to suit the communities and resources available to them. methods as table 2 implies, sources for the indicator measurement may vary from those readily available as secondary data (for example from statistics canada), to primary data collected as an integral part of projects conducted under nre2. in the latter case, some of the information was gathered from key informants in the sites through interviews and reviewing published site reports. differences in types of data collected for each indicator have to be resolved to make results comparable. for example dependency ratios rely on quantitative data while assessing utilities infrastructure requires qualitative data. to achieve some commonality, initial assessments for each indicator were transformed into scores based on a likert scale (0-10). details on how researchers arrived at likert scores for each indicator are available in the appendix. in general, the extremes of 10 and 0 were applied, respectively, to the most and least desirable conditions regarding capacity. situations
What does CSA require?
it is an approach that requires site-specific assessments to identify suitable agricultural production technologies and practices
The first approach addresses the complex interrelated challenges of food security. What more does it include?
this approach: 1. addresses the complex interrelated challenges of food security, development and climate change, and identifies integrated options that create synergies and benefits and reduce trade-offs
What does  multiple challenges faced by agriculture and food systems are addressed simultaneously and holistically help?
what is also new is the fact that the multiple challenges faced by agriculture and food systems are addressed simultaneously and holistically, which helps avoid counterproductive policies, legislation or financing
csa is not a single specific agricultural technology or practice that can be universally applied. it is an approach that requires site-specific assessments to identify suitable agricultural production technologies and practices. this approach: 1. addresses the complex interrelated challenges of food security, development and climate change, and identifies integrated options that create synergies and benefits and reduce trade-offs; 2. recognizes that these options will be shaped by specific country contexts and capacities and by the particular social, economic, and environmental situation where it will be applied; 3. assesses the interactions between sectors and the needs of different stakeholders involved; 4. identifies barriers to adoption, especially among farmers, and provides appropriate solutions in terms of policies, strategies, actions and incentives; 5. seeks to create enabling environments through a greater alignment of policies, financial investments and institutional arrangements; 6. strives to achieve multiple objectives with the understanding that priorities need to be set and collective decisions made on different benefits and trade-offs; 7. should prioritize the strengthening of livelihoods, especially those of smallholders, by improving access to services, knowledge, resources (including genetic resources), financial products and markets; 8. addresses adaptation and builds resilience to shocks, especially those related to climate change, as the magnitude of the impacts of climate change has major implications for agricultural and rural development; 9. considers climate change mitigation as a potential secondary co-benefit, especially in low-income, agriculturalbased populations; 10. seeks to identify opportunities to access climate-related financing and integrate it with traditional sources of agricultural investment finance. csa brings together practices, policies and institutions that are not necessarily new but are used in the context of climatic changes, which are unfamiliar to farmers, herders and fishers. what is also new is the fact that the multiple challenges faced by agriculture and food systems are addressed simultaneously and holistically, which helps avoid counterproductive policies, legislation or financing.
What is needed to minimise the effects of flooding on target groups?
there is a need for more good quality epidemiological data before vulnerability indices can be used operationally to minimise the effects of flooding on target groups
What needs to become mainstreamed into the general health system?
flood hazard issues need to become mainstreamed into general health system planning and development
What is there little evidence of in future health systems?
there is, as yet, little evidence of purposeful adaptation to future flood risks in health systems
given the increased risk posed by climate change, a further shift of emphasis toward risk management and preparedness is required, away from an emphasis on emergency response that still remains for many actors. this is increasingly advocated for flood risk reduction in general (such as improvement in weather alert systems and building restrictions on floodplains), which will itself reduce overall health risk 'upstream' by reducing exposure and social vulnerability. but it is also crucial in terms of 'downstream' health protection. there needs, for example, to be more planning and preparedness for the public as well as for health systems to develop health measures that will be taken both before and after events. there is a need for more good quality epidemiological data before vulnerability indices can be used operationally to minimise the effects of flooding on target groups. flood hazard issues need to become mainstreamed into general health system planning and development. there is, as yet, little evidence of purposeful adaptation to future flood risks in health systems. where society in general is already undertaking flood risk reduction efforts, it is crucial that health systems are brought into the process through effective intersectoral or inter-institutional coordination. indeed, given the importance, reach and political 'tangibility' of health impacts from floods there is a case for arguing that the
How can ecosystems provide feedbacks to climate change?
by modifying the land-atmosphere exchange of energy and water
What is absorbed by the ocean as the climate effects of CO2 losses from an ecosystem will diminish through time as the atmosphere equilibrates with the ocean?
co2
What are needed to fully evaluate and compare physical and GHG feedbacks?
earth system models that simulate energy, water, and carbon exchanges between the land, ocean, and atmosphere
in addition to affecting ghg cycles, ecosystems can provide feedbacks to climate change by modifying the land-atmosphere exchange of energy and water figure 1 ). these physical effects include changes in albedo, evapotranspiration, energy partitioning, and roughness length of the land surface, which in turn can affect both local and remote climate (123). in general, changes in water or energy balance tend to influence climate on smaller spatial scales than changes in carbon uptake because co2 is a well-mixed gas. biophysical feedbacks are therefore relatively more important for regional than global climate, although their cumulative effect at the global scale can be significant. comparison of physical feedbacks with ghg feedbacks is complicated by at least three factors. first, the spatial scale of influence can differ significantly, and therefore the relative importance of physical and ghg effects will be a function of the scale and climate variable of interest. second, the relative importance of physical and ghg feedbacks will also change with time. for example, the climate effects of co2 losses from an ecosystem will diminish through time as the atmosphere equilibrates with the ocean and some of the co2 is absorbed by the ocean. in contrast, changes in surface albedo will cause a persistent change in net absorbed radiation at the surface that will equally affect current and future climates. third, whereas changes in surface albedo can be expressed as a radiative forcing, changes in factors such as energy partitioning do not involve a net change in absorbed radiation and therefore cannot be evaluated within the traditional framework of radiative forcing used for ghgs (124). given these difficulties, earth system models that simulate energy, water, and carbon exchanges between the land, ocean, and atmosphere are needed to fully evaluate and compare physical and ghg feedbacks (4). such models are still in their infancy but have already yielded significant insights into ecosystem feedbacks.
As stated above, the leaders of organizations help define and what?
shape work contexts that contribute to organizational innovation
As a result, employees feel engaged and personally rewarded through work, and work outcomes such as what?
satisfaction and extra effort are enhanced
as stated above, the leaders of organizations help define and shape work contexts that contribute to organizational innovation (amabile, 1998), and there is evidence that individual leadership style is an important determinant of innovation (dess picken, 2000). in particular, transformational leadership has been shown to support and promote innovation, which in turn can ensure the long-term survival of an organization (ancona caldwell, 1987). zahra (1999) stated that "participation in the emerging global economy requires--in fact, demands--innovation and entrepreneurial risk taking" (p. 38). participative leadership is associated with cultures of innovation and high-performing companies (ogbonna harris, 2000). transformational leadership refers to behaviors of leaders who motivate followers to perform and identify with organizational goals and interests and who have the capacity to motivate employees beyond expected levels of work performance. as a result, employees feel engaged and personally rewarded through work, and work outcomes such as satisfaction and extra effort are enhanced (bass avolio, 1994, 1997; gardner avolio, 1998; howell avolio, 1993; lowe, kroeck, sivasubramaniam, 1996; sosik, kahai, avolio, 1998). transformational leadership, as examined in this article, uses the six factors proposed by podsakoff, mackenzie, moorman, and fetter (1990): articulating a vision for the future, providing an appropriate
Why does the COD/BOD5 ratio tend to increase?
the tendency is for the ratio to increase, owing to the stepwise reduction of the biodegradable fraction, at the same time that the inert fraction remains approximately unchanged
In which tests is the organic carbon measured directly and indirectly?
total organic carbon (toc) in this test the organic carbon is directly measured, in an instrumental test, and not indirectly through the determination of the oxygen consumed, like the three tests above
In what form does the TOC test measure the released carbon?
the toc test measures all the carbon released in the form of co2
the cod/bod5 ratio also varies as the wastewater passes along the various units of the treatment works. the tendency is for the ratio to increase, owing to the stepwise reduction of the biodegradable fraction, at the same time that the inert fraction remains approximately unchanged. in this way, the final effluent of the biological treatment has values of the cod/bod5 ratio usually higher than 3.0. d) total organic carbon (toc) in this test the organic carbon is directly measured, in an instrumental test, and not indirectly through the determination of the oxygen consumed, like the three tests above. the toc test measures all the carbon released in the form of co2. to guarantee that the carbon being measured is really organic carbon, the inorganic forms of carbon (like co2, hco- 3etc) must be removed before the analysis or be corrected when calculated (eckenfelder, 1980). the toc test has been mostly used so far in research or in detailed evaluations of the characteristics of the liquid, due to the high costs of the equipment. e) relationship between the representative parameters of oxygen consumption in samples of raw and treated domestic sewage, the usual ratios between the main representative parameters of oxygen consumption (bodu/bod5 and cod/bod5) are shown in figure 2.12. the following comments can be made:
Why there are many methodological issues in the science of ensemble and probabilistic climate change prediction to sort out?
the science of ensemble and probabilistic climate change prediction is still rather new
What studies do they expect to see more in the future?
studies that produce estimates of probabilities at sub-global and even regional local scales
What the application of the approaches described in this short article and in the papers in this issue also provides ?
a framework by which climate models and predictions may be improved
the science of ensemble and probabilistic climate change prediction is still rather new and there are many methodological issues to sort out. we are yet to routinely produce pdfs of user-specified variables that are actually used to make decisions on a day-to-day basis. however, we do believe that this is an important area to make progress in, so that we may move forward from the simple approach of presenting indicative scenarios of what might happen in the future. climate models will always be imperfect and owing to their inherent three-dimensional nature, modest increases in model spatial resolution have only been possible in the lifetime of climate prediction. high-resolution climate models that can be used for prediction in which sub-grid-scale processes like convection are explicitly resolved rather than parameterized are still decades away: decades during which climate change will intensify and people will have to adapt. in the future, we expect to see more studies that produce estimates of probabilities at sub-global and even regional local scales. we also expect to see quantitative comparisons of different methods and approaches to better address which are the most appropriate. specific areas are likely to be -- comparisons of perturbed physics ensembles generated using structurally different models; -- comparison and combination of different observational constraints; -- more use of probabilistic methods in impacts assessments; and -- 'seamless' prediction of weather and climate from days to seasons to decades to centuries. the application of the approaches described in this short article and in the papers in this issue also provides a framework by which climate models and predictions may be improved. the derivation of observational constraints for 1967 ensembles and probabilities
As economists what was emphasized? we need to be honest about what we know and what we don't know about climate change
i have stressed that as economists, we need to be honest about what we know and don't know about climate change and its impact
What is the relevance of atmospheric scientists? made great progress in understanding how weather patterns
atmospheric scientists have made great progress in understanding how weather patterns atmospheric
What is best to do at this point? is to find plausible answers to these questions
i have argued that the best we can do at this point is come up with plausible answers to these questions
i have stressed that as economists, we need to be honest about what we know and don't know about climate change and its impact. just as financial economists would (or should) be ashamed to sell "technical analysis" to investors, environmental economists should be ashamed to claim that iams can forecast climate change and its impact, or tell us what the scc is. atmospheric scientists have made great progress in understanding how weather patterns atmospheric scientists have made great progress in understanding how weather patterns develop and change, but they don't claim to be able to forecast next month's weather or when the next hurricane will arrive. there has also been great progress in our understanding of the drivers of climate, how ghg emissions can affect climate, and (to a lesser extent) how changes in climate can affect gdp and other economic variables. but that progress does not enable us to build and use iams as tools for forecasting and policy analysis, and we would be deluding ourselves if we thought otherwise. 14 14 it would be nice if the problem were simply imprecise knowledge of certain parameters, it would be nice if the problem were simply imprecise knowledge of certain parameters, so that uncertainty could be handled by assigning probability distributions to those parameters and then running monte carlo simulations. unfortunately, not only don't we know the correct probability distributions that should be applied to these parameters - we can't even write down the correct equations to which those parameters apply. this does not mean we have to throw up our hands and give up on the estimation of the this does not mean we have to throw up our hands and give up on the estimation of the scc and the analysis of climate change policy more generally. i have argued that the problem is somewhat simplified by the fact that what matters for policy is the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. how probable is such an outcome (or set of outcomes), and how bad would they be? and by how much would emissions have to be reduced to avoid these outcomes? i have argued that the best we can do at this point is come up with plausible answers to these questions, perhaps relying at least in part on consensus numbers supplied by climate scientists and environmental economists. this kind of analysis would be simple, transparent, and easytounderstand. it might not inspire the kind of awe and sense of scientific legitimacy conveyed by a large-scale iam, but that is exactly the point. it would draw back the curtain and clarify our beliefs about climate change and its impact.
How did the Batura Glacier Investigation Group measure the seasonal ice velocity variability in the Karakoram?
the batura glacier investigation group (1979) used a combination of terrestrial stereophotography and control survey to measure the surface motion across the ablation area of the glacier
How did Hewitt and others measure the seasonal ice velocity variability on Biafo Glacier?
hewitt and others (1989) used a theodolite to measure the position of a network of nine stakes across the middle of the glacier's ablation area in 1985/86, with summer velocities of 128-226 m a-1
there have been several previous measurements of seasonal ice velocity variability in the karakoram, predominantly focusing on the largest glaciers in this region. for example, on batura glacier, the batura glacier investigation group (1979) used a combination of terrestrial stereophotography and control survey to measure the surface motion across the ablation area of the glacier at a total of 129 locations in 1974/ 75. they found average velocities of  100 m a-1, with a peak of 517.5 m a-1. velocities were higher from june to september than the mean annual rate, although typical summer increases were <20%. in contrast, the motion at the glacier terminus varied little between summer and winter. on biafo glacier, hewitt and others (1989) used a theodolite to measure the position of a network of nine stakes across the middle of the glacier's ablation area in 1985/86, with summer velocities of 128-226 m a-1. winter
Explain the comparison of GRACE?
grace, although quantitative comparisons (between grace and in situ river gauge data) are difficult because of different representations of the two different quantities
On which it is consistent?
this is consistent with the spatial tws variation feature observed by grace (figure 5). in situ water-level data also indicate that the 2005 amazon drought had ended by the end of 2005 and by february or march 2006, the central amazon region was actually wetter than normal (see figure 6), also consistent with grace observations and gpcp precipitation data
grace, although quantitative comparisons (between grace and in situ river gauge data) are difficult because of different representations of the two different quantities. we see a gradual decease in magnitudes of the water-level drops among the 4 gauges, from  4.8 m at itapeua,  4.4 m at jatuarana,  3 m at parintins, to  2 m at obidos (figure 6). this is consistent with the spatial tws variation feature observed by grace (figure 5). in situ water-level data also indicate that the 2005 amazon drought had ended by the end of 2005 and by february or march 2006, the central amazon region was actually wetter than normal (see figure 6), also consistent with grace observations and gpcp precipitation data.
Strategic power is what by nature?
strategic power is by its nature a contingent and indeterminate process (levy and scully 2007
What is crucial that the institutionalization of carbon reporting as a form of governance rely on?
crucially, the institutionalization of carbon reporting as a form of governance relies on a successful project of "commensuration", defined by levin and espeland (2002: 121) as "the transformation of qualitative relations into quantities on a common metric". just as financial reporting translates a firm's myriad activities into a common monetary metric, so carbon reporting attempts to render complex organizational operations involving multiple gases and impacts in terms of a common carbon metric, tco2e (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
What do carbon accounting systems need to specify?
for example, carbon accounting systems need to specify the "exchange rates" at which quantities of other greenhouse gases, such as methane and perfluorocarbons are commensurate with co2. they need to establish procedures for setting emissions baselines from which reductions "count
the effort to enlist investors in the institutionalization of carbon accounting and management represents a sophisticated strategy on the part of environmental groups, but it is not a guaranteed mechanism. strategic power is by its nature a contingent and indeterminate process (levy and scully 2007). the efficacy of carbon disclosure relies on a particular chain of causal logic: the carbon reports need to be relevant and valuable to investors by conveying information that relates to the financial impact of climate risks and carbon controls on the valuation of corporate assets (hassel et al., 2005). investor scrutiny will then put pressure on firms to disclose information on their carbon profile and to take action to reduce emissions. firms producing this information are expected to become more aware themselves of connections between their carbon profile and their financial performance. furthermore, the strategy relies on ngos and governments using the carbon disclosure information to pressure firms through benchmarking and ranking (o'dwyer et al., 2005). these chains of causation may not materialize, however; reducing carbon emissions may not generate demonstrable financial gains, investors might find the information difficult to interpret, and ngos might not find disclosure reports particularly useful in their climate change strategies. crucially, the institutionalization of carbon reporting as a form of governance relies on a successful project of "commensuration", defined by levin and espeland (2002: 121) as "the transformation of qualitative relations into quantities on a common metric". just as financial reporting translates a firm's myriad activities into a common monetary metric, so carbon reporting attempts to render complex organizational operations involving multiple gases and impacts in terms of a common carbon metric, tco2e (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent). the carbon market is not a naturally existing entity; the commodification of carbon is a political and institutional project, requiring an extensive legal and bureaucratic infrastructure to define and measure carbon units for various activities and gases, allocate and adjudicate property rights, and to establish rules for trading across national boundaries and different carbon jurisdictions. for example, carbon accounting systems need to specify the "exchange rates" at which quantities of other greenhouse gases, such as methane and perfluorocarbons are commensurate with co2. they need to establish procedures for setting emissions baselines from which reductions "count". the european trading system and rggi use disparate mechanisms and cover different sectors, yet rules are being developed to enable carbon trading across
What did O'Brien say of areas with better infrastructure?
according to o'brien et al. (2004), areas with better infrastructure are expected to have a higher capacity to adapt to climate change
What does sensitivity mean according to the IPCC?
sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate change stimuli, whereas exposure is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to climate variations (ipcc 2001
the model variables for this study were categorized according to the study's conceptual framework (see section 3). adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to actual or expected climate stresses or to cope with the consequences of those stresses. according to ipcc (2001), the main features determining a community or region's adaptive capacity include economic wealth, technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions, and equity. for this study, adaptive capacity is represented by wealth, technology, availability of infrastructure and institutions, potential for irrigation, and literacy rate. wealth enables communities to absorb and recover from losses more quickly due to insurance, social safety nets, and entitlement programs (cutter, mitchell, and scott 2000). number of livestock owned, ownership of a radio, and quality of residential homes are commonly used as indicators of wealth in rural african communities (langyintuo 2005; vyas and kumaranayake 2006). proximity to supplies of agricultural inputs is identified as an indicator of technology. for instance, drought-tolerant or early maturing varieties of crops as technology packages usually require access to complementary inputs, such as fertilizers or pesticides. thus, the supplies of such inputs positively contribute to successful adaptation. the level of development and availability of institutions and infrastructure play an important role in adaptation to climate change by facilitating access to resources. for instance, all-weather roads allow for the distribution of necessary inputs to farmers, which helps them adapt to climate change. these roads also facilitate economic activity by increasing access to markets. likewise, health services can assist in the provision of preventive treatments for diseases associated with climatic change, such as malaria. and the availability of microfinance often supports farmers by providing credits for technology packages. smith and lenhart (1996) indicated that countries with welldeveloped social institutions are considered to have greater adaptive capacity than those with lesseffective institutional arrangements. according to o'brien et al. (2004), areas with better infrastructure are expected to have a higher capacity to adapt to climate change. in their analysis of the vulnerability of indian agriculture to climate charge, for example, o'brien et al. included india's infrastructure development index--which includes the availability of transportation, irrigation, banking, communication, education, and health facilities--to measure adaptive capacity. irrigation potential and literacy rate are other important factors contributing to adaptation to climate change. irrigation potential was selected because of the assumption that places with more potentially irrigable land are more adaptable to adverse climatic conditions (o'brien et al. 2004). literacy rate is often included to approximate the level of skills and education of a region. smith and lenhart (1996) argued that countries with higher levels of stores of human knowledge are considered to have greater adaptive capacity than are developing nations and those in transition. sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate change stimuli, whereas exposure is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to climate variations (ipcc 2001). the agricultural sector's sensitivity to climate change is represented by the frequency of climate extremes. in our study, it is argued that in places with a greater frequency of droughts and floods, the agricultural sector responds negatively (i.e., yield is reduced). thus, agriculture in droughtand flood-prone areas is more sensitive in terms of yield reduction. exposure is represented by the predicted change in temperature and rainfall by 2050. this figure provides the level of climate change to which regions are exposed. it is generally agreed that increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation are both damaging to the already hot and waterscarce african agriculture. thus, regions with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were identified as regions more exposed to climate change. table 2 gives the indicators and the hypothesized direction of relationship with vulnerability. 9 9
What is one of the important factors that improves with increased resolution of the climate models?
one of the important factors that improves with increased resolution of the climate models is elevation
What deviate greatly from the elevations used in the respective subbasins of the HBV model?
the elevations used in the gcm deviate greatly from the elevations used in the respective subbasins of the hbv model
What was especially large during winter for the models tested with the scaling approach?
a positive bias in temperature was especially large during winter for the models tested with the scaling approach
one of the important factors that improves with increased resolution of the climate models is elevation. the elevations used in the gcm deviate greatly from the elevations used in the respective subbasins of the hbv model. as resolution becomes finer, deviations in elevation diminish. at 25 km resolution, the rcm uses elevations that are considerably better matched to the hydrological model on a subbasin scale. this has implications for representation of both temperature and precipitation, which is apparent in the scaling factors. the finer the climate model resolution, the more systematic and less spatially variable the scaling factors become. better scaling is achieved when the spatial variability of biases is low. it is also important to evaluate what is used as an observational baseline. a positive bias in temperature was especially large during winter for the models tested with the scaling approach (table i). this can in part be explained by orographical differences between the
What is MDGs ?
considering each of the mdgs carefully, one does indeed discover many ways in which climate policy related activities may help to reach the goals listed above
what are the donor agencies highligt the linkages?
a group of multilateral and bilateral donor agencies produced a joint study to highlight these linkages, specifically with respect to adaptation measures (afdb et al. 2003
Explain about goal 7?
as mentioned above, the relationship with goal 7 is obvious because climate change directly damages the ecosystems and many natural resources, whose stability would be a prerequisite for economic development. with respect to other goals, it can be noted that the risk of sea level rise, desertification and irregular rainfall induced by climate change is particularly strong for many poor countries, especially coastal countries, small island states and the countries in the sahel zone
considering each of the mdgs carefully, one does indeed discover many ways in which climate policy related activities may help to reach the goals listed above. a group of multilateral and bilateral donor agencies produced a joint study to highlight these linkages, specifically with respect to adaptation measures (afdb et al. 2003). as mentioned above, the relationship with goal 7 is obvious because climate change directly damages the ecosystems and many natural resources, whose stability would be a prerequisite for economic development. with respect to other goals, it can be noted that the risk of sea level rise, desertification and irregular rainfall induced by climate change is particularly strong for many poor countries, especially coastal countries, small island states and the countries in the sahel zone. this will reduce food security and destroy productive assets such as arable land, infrastructure, housing, etc. helping countries to adapt to projected changes through, for instance, the construction of dams, the use of new irrigation methods or the of adapted crops will therefore clearly be beneficial to goal 1. moreover, adaptation may reduce the threat of civil and cross-border conflict over increasingly scarce resources such as land and water.
Explain about the Smallholder Farmers' Views?
smallholder farmers' views and knowledge about climate change the findings indicated that local people's perceptions on climate change/variability are based on assessment of mainly temperature and precipitation events as they experience them within the locality
What is potential consequences?
figure 2 shows that the majority of the farmers (53%) professed ignorance about climate change and its potential consequences, whilst 47% indicated that there was some kind of change that they had observed in recent years
How to point the rainfall patterns?
of those who have noticed some change in climate, 58% of them pointed out that rainfall patterns have become highly unpredictable in the last few years to the effect that they could not predict the time of onset of seasonal rainfall and the prevalence of mid-season dry spells had increased
smallholder farmers' views and knowledge about climate change the findings indicated that local people's perceptions on climate change/variability are based on assessment of mainly temperature and precipitation events as they experience them within the locality. figure 2 shows that the majority of the farmers (53%) professed ignorance about climate change and its potential consequences, whilst 47% indicated that there was some kind of change that they had observed in recent years. of those who have noticed some change in climate, 58% of them pointed out that rainfall patterns have become highly unpredictable in the last few years to the effect that they could not predict the time of onset of seasonal rainfall and the prevalence of mid-season dry spells had increased.
what corresponds to the two stable equilibria that were found?
one corresponds to the current biome distribution. the second is a new equilibrium state: savannas replace eastern amazonian forests and a semi-desert area appears in the driest portion of northeast brazil
the existence of multiple climate-vegetation equilibria in tropical south america is investigated under present-day climate conditions with the use of an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a potential vegetation model. two stable equilibria were found. one corresponds to the current biome distribution. the second is a new equilibrium state: savannas replace eastern amazonian forests and a semi-desert area appears in the driest portion of northeast brazil. if sustainable development and conservation policies were not able to halt the increasing environmental degradation in those areas, then land use changes could, per se, tip the climate-vegetation system towards this new alternative drier stable equilibrium state, with savannization of parts of amazonia and desertification of the driest area of northeast brazil, and with potential adverse impacts on the rich species diversity in the former region and water resources in the latter. index terms: 3322 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: land/atmosphere interactions; 3309 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: climatology (1620); 9360 information related to geographic region: south america. citation: oyama, m. d., and c. a. nobre, a new climatevegetation equilibrium state for tropical south america, geophys. res. lett. 30 (23), 2199, doi:10.1029/2003gl018600, 2003.
Who developed a guide to assist governments and international funders to integrate adaptation into core development activities?
oecd
What are the four levels of government decision-making processes systems?
national, sector, project, and local
in addition, oecd has developed a mainstreaming guide to assist governments and international funders to integrate adaptation into core development activities, and incrementally into their m&e, with a focus on geographic zones, communities, and sectors most vulnerable to climate change. it addresses four levels of government decision-making processes systems as entry points - national, sector, project, and local - and encourages moving the coordination of adaptation activities into powerful central bodies. the guide promotes harmonization with existing plans and strategies for adaptation, such as relevant existing sector-level results frameworks. it also promotes engaging a wide variety of stakeholders to identify adaptation options and define indicators of progress. another flexible tool is wri's national adaptive capacity (nac) framework, which examines what a national government is capable of doing in order to adapt. participation and transparency are built into each step of the tool, which seeks to draw on a variety of experiences and inputs to establish national adaptive capacity. government officials can use the resulting assessment as a baseline assessment22 for future adaptation planning.
What would be one of the main advantages of optional ponds
one of the main advantages of the facultative ponds is the possibility to accumulate sludge on the bottom of the pond, during the whole operational period, with no need for its removal
What would be more compact lakes
anaerobic ponds, facultative aerated lagoons and sedimentation ponds
as in all biological wastewater treatment processes, there is also production of sludge in stabilisation ponds. this sludge is associated with the solids present in the raw sewage and, mainly, with the biomass developed in the biological treatment itself. the various chapters that cover stabilisation pond variants in this book present values for the estimated volumetric sludge production (expressed in m3/inhab.year or in cm/year). this chapter, based on gon,calves (1999), presents additional details about the characteristics of the sludge and, mainly, about the management of the sludge from stabilisation ponds. however, the reference gon,calves (1999) should be consulted for further details on the theme. one of the main advantages of the facultative ponds is the possibility to accumulate sludge on the bottom of the pond, during the whole operational period, with no need for its removal. however, in the most compact ponds (anaerobic ponds, facultative aerated lagoons and sedimentation ponds), the occupation of the useful volume of the pond with the accumulated sludge is more significant, requiring an appropriate management, including removal, occasional processing and final disposal. a further description about the treatment and final disposal of the sludge is not intended here as these items are dealt with in the quoted reference and in part 7 of this book.
State the environmental and economic adverse effects?
at the same time that climate change outpaces some species' abilities to migrate, humanmediated exotic species s have allowed other species to migrate rapidly across the globe, in some cases causing tremendous ecological and economic harm (sax et al 2005
Say Richard and White policies?
reichard and white 2001). however, nurseries also carry many species that are native to the continents where plants are sold, with possible benefits for migrations within continents. to date, climate change has allowed many species to shift their geographic ranges northward (walther et al 2002; parmesan 2006), in some cases facilitated by the presence of plants in gardens (walther et al 2002, 2005, 2007), and there is an expectation that gardeners in northern regions will be able to grow many new plant species in the future due to a warmer climate (bisgrove and hadley 2002
What are the native European plant species of commercial nurseries?
here we investigate the potential for commercial nurseries to provide a head start for northward range shifts of native european plant species in the face of ongoing climate change. to what degree have we already inadvertently assisted plant migrations
at the same time that climate change outpaces some species' abilities to migrate, humanmediated exotic species s have allowed other species to migrate rapidly across the globe, in some cases causing tremendous ecological and economic harm (sax et al 2005). for plants, the horticulture industry provides a major pathway for the cross-continental establishment and invasion of non-native species (reichard and white 2001). however, nurseries also carry many species that are native to the continents where plants are sold, with possible benefits for migrations within continents. to date, climate change has allowed many species to shift their geographic ranges northward (walther et al 2002; parmesan 2006), in some cases facilitated by the presence of plants in gardens (walther et al 2002, 2005, 2007), and there is an expectation that gardeners in northern regions will be able to grow many new plant species in the future due to a warmer climate (bisgrove and hadley 2002). here we investigate the potential for commercial nurseries to provide a head start for northward range shifts of native european plant species in the face of ongoing climate change. to what degree have we already inadvertently assisted plant migrations?
What is responsible for a decreasing portion of emissions?
household consumption
What does the drop in household consumption's share in total emissions mirror?
the overall drop in private consumption share in china
What is widely seen as the future driver in China?
household consumption
the importance of exports and capital goods can also be shown by the fact that household consumption is responsible for a decreasing portion of emissions, from 45% in 1987 down to 28% in 2005. this drop in household consumption's share in total emissions mirrors the overall drop in private consumption share in china, possibly due to high savings rates caused by peculiarities of the labour and market and social system (modigliani and cao, 2004) and especially due to low household incomes caused by an underdeveloped financial sector (aziz and cui, 2007). nevertheless, household consumption is widely seen as the future driver of china's economy, and thus its future co2 emissions (aziz and cui, 2007; iea, 2007).
What does the optimal forcing patterns suggest
the optimal forcing patterns suggest that there are preferred regions of "upstream" forcing that might serve to initiate the waves
What one can argue in REOF 1?
reof 1, where one could argue that while the wave could be initiated by (say vorticity) forcing somewhere upstream of the wave along the north atlantic jet, once the wave is mature, local heating feedbacks over eurasia could play an important role in helping to maintain the wave (e.g., fischer et al. 2007
What is in contrast with REOF 4 , as compared to REOF 1
this is in contrast with reof 4 where the primary forcing seems to be upstream of the wave over the eastern pacific
the optimal forcing patterns suggest that there are preferred regions of "upstream" forcing that might serve to initiate the waves. other inferred forcing regions that are basically in phase with the regions of the largest wave response could potentially represent regions where local feedbacks are important for maintaining the wave. an example is reof 1, where one could argue that while the wave could be initiated by (say vorticity) forcing somewhere upstream of the wave along the north atlantic jet, once the wave is mature, local heating feedbacks over eurasia could play an important role in helping to maintain the wave (e.g., fischer et al. 2007). this is in contrast with reof 4 where the primary forcing seems to be upstream of the wave over the eastern pacific.
What type of models have been developed to predict the occurrence of plant communities and their constituent species?
bioclimatic models have been developed to predict the occurrence of plant communities and their constituent species
How do these models work when applied to the subject of global warming?
the models are of a scope, power, and precision that are currently unparalleled. their fit and validation were superb. when applied to the subject of global warming, the models provided intuitively reasonable predictions but brought to the forefront as many questions as answers
What is accuracy of predictions from bioclimatic models dependent on?
still, the accuracy of predictions from bioclimatic models ultimately is dependent on the aptness of the scenarios and the precision of the gcms
bioclimatic models have been developed to predict the occurrence of plant communities and their constituent species. the models are of a scope, power, and precision that are currently unparalleled. their fit and validation were superb. when applied to the subject of global warming, the models provided intuitively reasonable predictions but brought to the forefront as many questions as answers. despite the availability of these powerful models, a thorough assessment of the effects of global warming is still distant. analyses are particularly needed at the level of the landscape rather than continents or regions. still, the accuracy of predictions from bioclimatic models ultimately is dependent on the aptness of the scenarios and the precision of the gcms. our models emphasize the importance of the periodicity of precipitation and of interactions between temperature and precipitation in controlling the distribution of communities and their species. accuracy in assessing the ecological effects of global warming, therefore, will require that gcm modelers be as diligent with the effects of atmospheric pollution on precipitation as with temperature.
Whose evaporation dataset is perhaps the most reliable?
perhaps the most reliable and vetted evaporation dataset comes from yu and weller (2007), which finds that increases in surface evaporation appear to be real
The increases in evaporation and precipitation trends over the ocean since the late 1980s are associated with what other meteorological phenomenon?
schlosser and houser (2007) and wentz et al. (2007) have both made recent estimates of evaporation and precipitation trends over the ocean and find increases since the late 1980s, which are associated especially with increased winds
What may be a downside to using bulk flux formulae to make estimates of evaporation?
estimates of evaporation can be made using bulk flux formulae but are difficult to achieve with reliability
estimates of evaporation can be made using bulk flux formulae but are difficult to achieve with reliability. schlosser and houser (2007) and wentz et al. (2007) have both made recent estimates of evaporation and precipitation trends over the ocean and find increases since the late 1980s, which are associated especially with increased winds. however, the main change occurs in association with a change in ssm/i satellites and is likely spurious (schlosser and houser, 2007). perhaps the most reliable and vetted evaporation dataset comes from yu and weller (2007), which finds that increases in surface evaporation appear to be real.
How many factors are used to calculate risk?
three factors
What are the three factors used to calculate Risk?
possible hazard vulnerability exposure possible impact x x
The area of which shape can be used to measure risk?
if risk is measured by the area of an acute angled triangle
risk can be calculated thus: possible hazard vulnerability exposure possible impact x x the point to be emphasized here is that if any one of the three factors is zero then there is no risk. if risk is measured by the area of an acute angled triangle, a reduction in any one side will reduce risk. risk management then becomes a case of examining each of the three sides in turn to look for the most cost-effective solutions. for example, if one imagines the flood risk for a coastal town built on low-lying land at the mouth of a major river, how should the flood risk be managed? does one tackle the vulnerability, hazard or exposure of the town?
Whis book is written to enable you to do?
to get a clearer view of the ways in which the climate is changing
What do we have to do to combat climate change?
act fast, we also have to act together
People can apparently be ' familiar ' with the excellent science of climate change, and ' know ' intellectually the problems that exists, but can what?
fail to engage
what will i do when the lights do go out? <s121>* will the house flood next year? <s121>* will my home get so hot this summer that i won't be able to stay in it? <s121>* how long could i survive in this building without air conditioning? <s121>* where will we go? <s121>* will we survive? this book is written to enable you, the reader, to get a clearer view of the ways in which the climate is changing and how these changes will affect your life tomorrow and the day after, in the buildings, settlements and regions in which you live and work. only by emotionally registering, by consciously taking on board, the scale of the impending global disaster ahead will any of us find the strength to act in time to avert the worst of its impacts. but not only do we have to act fast, we also have to act together actions will only be effective if we all act together because each of us is ' involved ' in the fate of all mankind through the common air that we breathe and the climate we occupy. as you will see throughout this book, people can apparently be ' familiar ' with the excellent science of climate change, and ' know ' intellectually the problems that exists, but still fail to engage more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What were the simulated yield changes also used as ?
the simulated yield changes were also used as proxies for changes in yields of related but unmodeled crops (barley, oats, sugar cane, sugar beet, and cotton) in order to estimate national crop production for all crops included in the economic model
Why was new economic work conducted ?
new econometric work was conducted to find the specific relationship between climate and pesticide use for major crops, showing increased pesticide expenditures with rising temperatures and greater precipitation
What trade was simulated in a sensitivity analysis that used previous estimates of production shifts globally ?
because it was not possible to develop a new set of global yield estimates, potential impacts of climate change on us agricultural trade were simulated in a sensitivity analysis that used previous estimates of production shifts globally
yield results and changes in water demand for irrigated crops from the crop models were used in an economic model to simulate national level changes in production, resource use, and economic impact on farmers and consumers. the simulated yield changes were also used as proxies for changes in yields of related but unmodeled crops (barley, oats, sugar cane, sugar beet, and cotton) in order to estimate national crop production for all crops included in the economic model. water supply forecasts based on the climate scenarios were used to change water available for irrigation (7). also included were a positive relationship between input use and yield and a generally negative relationship between livestock productivity and temperature based on previous work 20 ). new econometric work was conducted to find the specific relationship between climate and pesticide use for major crops, showing increased pesticide expenditures with rising temperatures and greater precipitation 21 ). because it was not possible to develop a new set of global yield estimates, potential impacts of climate change on us agricultural trade were simulated in a sensitivity analysis that used previous estimates of production shifts globally 22, 23 ).
What the climate studies of long-term encompass?
long-term studies encompass periods of climate cooling as well as warming
What happen with the species, if the distribuitions of species are driven by climate trends?
if the distributions of species are truly driven by climate trends, these species should show opposite responses to cooling and warming periods
What the typical pattern of changes include?
a typical pattern includes northward range shifts during the two twentieth-century warming periods (1930-45 and 1975-99), and southward shifts during the intervening cooling period (1950-70
long-term studies encompass periods of climate cooling as well as warming. if the distributions of species are truly driven by climate trends, these species should show opposite responses to cooling and warming periods. such sign switching has been documented in the united kingdom for marine fish, limpets, barnacles and zooplankton40, in the united kingdom and estonia for birds20,31,44,45, and in the united kingdom, finland and sweden for butterflies17,46-48(see also table 3 legend). a typical pattern includes northward range shifts during the two twentieth-century warming periods (1930-45 and 1975-99), and southward shifts during the intervening cooling period (1950-70). no species showed opposing temporal trends (table 3).
What is the G77?
a coalition of 77 developing nations within the un
What mandate did  the G77 push for at the first Conference of Parties in Berlin?
a mandate that agreed that 'the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that the per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs
the 1992 framework convention on climate change was unable to resolve these controversies except to adopt the general principle of 'common but differentiated responsibility' and to suggest that industrialised countries should act first and provide assistance to the developing world. the principle recognises historical differences in the contributions of developed and developing states to global environmental problems, and differences in their respective economic and technical capacity to tackle these problems. the outcome demonstrated that by acting together the countries of the south could exert some power in international environmental negotiations, at least in principles if not in practice. in the negotiations between rio and the signing of the kyoto protocol in 1997 the question of responsibility was at the core of discussion because it also drove the issue of who should reduce emissions, when, and by how much. at the first conference of parties in berlin, the g77 (a coalition of 77 developing nations within the un) was able to push for a mandate that agreed that 'the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that the per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs'. this narrative, termed the berlin mandate, was sustained in the kyoto protocol in that developing countries (including some wealthy oil producers) were not given binding obligations to reduce emissions during the first commitment period. however, the idea that historical emissions should be the basis for cuts was rejected in favour of a 1990 baseline for kyoto, justified because of a lack of good data prior to this year but also because a 1990 baseline favoured several powerful interests including the uk, germany and russia.32
What affects the life cycle of the emperor penguin Aptenodytes forsteri?
sea ice conditions in the antarctic
What are the findings of linking the demographic models and IPCC climate models based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis?
seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (sica) affect adult survival and breeding success
What is the prediction of the overall ensemble of models regarding the population of the emperor penguin?
that population declines are far more likely than population increases
sea ice conditions in the antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin aptenodytes forsteri ). we present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of terre ade'lie, antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of ipcc climate models. based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (sica) affect adult survival and breeding success. demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual sica, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. we show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in sica. we identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in terre ade'lie. the output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of sica, which in turn drive the population model. uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. the median of these simulations predicts a decline of the terre ade'lie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. we find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. the uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. one such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. we conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to ipcc climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.
what is definite resolution?
definitive resolution of whether the tectonic evolution of collisional mountain belts is significantly influenced by climate, as suggested by coupled tectonic-surface process models (of analogue, analytical and numerical types), has proved rather challenging
write the above mentioned example?
for example, an isostatic response to erosion is expected even if none of the proposed feedback mechanisms operate in nature, as is evolution towards a balance between near-surface rock uplift rate and erosion. orographic enhancement of rainfall can produce spatial correlations between rapid rock-uplift and intense precipitation, even in the absence of any erosional influence on tectonics
what does Orographic enhancement of rainfall produces?
orographic enhancement of rainfall can produce spatial correlations between rapid rock-uplift and intense precipitation, even in the absence of any erosional influence on tectonics
definitive resolution of whether the tectonic evolution of collisional mountain belts is significantly influenced by climate, as suggested by coupled tectonic-surface process models (of analogue, analytical and numerical types), has proved rather challenging. as discussed above, efforts to test model predictions must take cognisance of several complicating factors, not least because there are no perfect natural experiments that isolate climatic effects on mountain-belt evolution. for example, an isostatic response to erosion is expected even if none of the proposed feedback mechanisms operate in nature, as is evolution towards a balance between near-surface rock uplift rate and erosion. orographic enhancement of rainfall can produce spatial correlations between rapid rock-uplift and intense precipitation, even in the absence of any erosional influence on tectonics. inactive, narrow and large/hot orogens can be expected to respond differently to climatic forcing. finally, climate change and mountain building operate on very different timescales -- short timescale variability in deformation is not necessarily a result of forcing due to climate change. with these factors in mind, a review of the implications, strengths and weaknesses of models and theory suggests some promising strategies for future research. the relationship between measurable climate parameters and erosional efficiency should be studied. coupled tectonic-surface
Can reasonable minds differ?
this is clearly an issue on which 'reasonable minds may differ
What is the first statement of the text?
first, irrespective of the ethical appeal (or otherwise) of impersonal consequentialism, it is clear that it does not reflect actual human behaviour at the individual level (pearce et al., 2003
What is the second statement of the text?
second, there are in fact, plausible ethical justifications for attaching more importance to people alive today than to distant generations
this is clearly an issue on which 'reasonable minds may differ'.25but two statements can be made with confidence. first, irrespective of the ethical appeal (or otherwise) of impersonal consequentialism, it is clear that it does not reflect actual human behaviour at the individual level (pearce et al., 2003). at best, it might be said to underpin the ethical basis for national policy when it is adjudicating between competing claims of citizens within the one nation-state. however, it clearly fails to describe national decisions that have different impacts on different nation-states. second, there are in fact, plausible ethical justifications for attaching more importance to people alive today than to distant generations. among the theories that stand in sharpest contrast to impersonal consequentialism are 'agent-relative' ethical theories, with a distinguished pedigree going back to david hume.
What does economic instability associated with climate change exacerbate?
economic instabilities associated with climate change might exacerbate, rather than diminish, population expansion that is not amenable to education, exhortation, or improved delivery systems alone
What here is considered paradoxical?
paradoxically, fertility decline has been associated with economic growth and development
Where do we not find discussions of sustainability models?
there is no discussion of models of sustainability derived from indigenous cultures or from ideologies not devoted exclusively to the concept of development as a growth-oriented and progress-oriented ideal
although eff ective measures to achieve demographic transition through family planning are available and work, they are not always wanted in either rich or poor countries. whether increased consumption is the result of the rich consuming more or simply more people consuming, population growth is a factor that needs to be taken into account in climate change. paradoxically, fertility decline has been associated with economic growth and development. economic instabilities associated with climate change might exacerbate, rather than diminish, population expansion that is not amenable to education, exhortation, or improved delivery systems alone. there is no discussion of models of sustainability derived from indigenous cultures or from ideologies not devoted exclusively to the concept of development as a growth-oriented and progress-oriented ideal. although many have benefi ted from development in terms of life expectancy, and human development indices and agricultural productivity have improved dramatically, these gains are unbalanced across populations and might be unsustainable. the discussion of urban population growth worldwide, but especially in developing countries, makes a strong
multinational enterprises?
sustainability related to multinational enterprises (mnes) has received increasing attention in the past decade
the academic International?
in the academic international business literature, a major contribution to a better understanding has originated from rugman and verbeke, in a series of publications in the late 1990s
What frontier?
this 'frontier' of international business research seems very worthwhile pursuing because it links the sustainability implications of corporate activity and the policy and societal responses engendered to the actual strategic responses of mnes, particularly the competitive (dis)advantages that may be created (or not) at different locations
sustainability related to multinational enterprises (mnes) has received increasing attention in the past decade (lundan, 2004; rugman verbeke, 2001a). in the academic international business literature, a major contribution to a better understanding has originated from rugman and verbeke, in a series of publications in the late 1990s (see especially rugman verbeke, 1998; 2000; 2001a). particularly their attempts to link sustainability to general themes, such as internalization, location-bound and nonlocation-bound firm-specific advantages (fsas), competitiveness, public policy and mne strategy, have been valuable. considering this work, of which the last publication was written around 2000, there are some obvious areas of further research building on rugman and verbeke, all the more because in recent years concern about mnes' impact on sustainability issues with a global scope such as climate change, the hole in the ozone layer and biodiversity loss has become more pressing than ever before. yet, to what extent mnes are also taking the responsibility to become agents of global change that tackle sustainability issues is still highly debated (christmann, 2004; christmann taylor, 2001). it is without doubt that mnes have a huge potential for innovation, which might lead to the development of sustainable products and services (hall vredenburg, 2003). but, do mnes also take the effort to invest in sustainable technologies, and if so, how far are they willing to go, also if this means moving away from technologies they are familiar with? this 'frontier' of international business research seems very worthwhile pursuing because it links the sustainability implications of corporate activity and the policy and societal responses engendered to the actual strategic responses of mnes, particularly the competitive (dis)advantages that may be created (or not) at different locations. it thus sheds light on how a global sustainability issue affects configurations of country-specific and
How is climate change likely to affect the number of occurrences of drought?
southern africa will become much hotter (as much as 4-6oc) and drier in the summer, with a much greater risk of drought. wheat production in the north and maize production in the south will be adversely affected
Why is Africa said to be one of the most vulnerable continents when it comes to climate change?
we know that northern and southern africa will become much hotter (as much as 4-6oc) and drier in the summer, with a much greater risk of drought. wheat production in the north and maize production in the south will be adversely affected. in eastern africa, including the horn of africa, and parts of central and western africa average rainfall will increase. as a result, vector borne diseases such as malaria and dengue may spread and become more severe. we also know that sea levels will rise, perhaps by half a metre, in the next fifty years with serious consequences in the nile delta and certain parts of west africa
what are the effects of global warming
part also is due to a severe lack of local weather data, particularly for central africa. there are many other known unknowns. will climate change experience tipping points, for example an accelerating and irreversible ice loss from the greenland ice 84 84 toulmin, op cit
there are some things we know about the impact of climate change on africa. we know that northern and southern africa will become much hotter (as much as 4-6oc) and drier in the summer, with a much greater risk of drought. wheat production in the north and maize production in the south will be adversely affected. in eastern africa, including the horn of africa, and parts of central and western africa average rainfall will increase. as a result, vector borne diseases such as malaria and dengue may spread and become more severe. we also know that sea levels will rise, perhaps by half a metre, in the next fifty years with serious consequences in the nile delta and certain parts of west africa. but there is much that we don't know. the sahel may get wetter or remain dry. the flow of the nile may be greater or less. we don't know whether overall the fall in agricultural production will be very large or relatively small. part of our ignorance comes from a still poor understanding of the drivers of the african climate, their interactions and the effects upon them of global warming. part also is due to a severe lack of local weather data, particularly for central africa. there are many other known unknowns. will climate change experience tipping points, for example an accelerating and irreversible ice loss from the greenland ice 84 84 toulmin, op cit.
How does a decrease in rainfall and a rise in temperature adversely affect the Ethiopian economy?
heavy dependence of the agricultural sector on rainfall
What factors are challenging the production of crop?
untimely rain and frequent drought
What can be done to improve community resilience to climate change?
improveing forecasting and dissemination of climate information, developing drought resistant varieties and promoting farm-level adaptation measures like use of irrigation technologies and adjusting planting dates
climate change adversely affects ethiopian economy due to heavy dependence of the agricultural sector on rainfall. a decrease of rainfall and rise in temperature has been increasing the exposure of the country to frequent drought. the study was conducted in central tigray, adiha tabia, to examine the perception of farmers on trends of climate changes and existing coping strategies. farmers' knowledge of various adaptation strategies, drought early warning system and weather forecasting were assessed using focus group discussion (fgd), which consisted of 144 systematically sampled respondents. temperature is rising while precipitation is declining from time to time. untimely rain and frequent drought are challenging crop production in the area. drought is perceived, both by male and female respondents, as the primary climate related hazard which is occurring frequently and affecting their livelihood. individual's vulnerability to this hazard varies based on their hazard coping capacity. lack of modern early warning systems, inflexible cropping calendar and narrow choice of crop varieties should aggravates the vulnerability. hence, improveing forecasting and dissemination of climate information, developing drought resistant varieties and promoting farm-level adaptation measures like use of irrigation technologies and adjusting planting dates should be prioritized to improve community resilience to climate change
Further risk reduction initiatives would include what?
ongoing monitoring and warning of impending disaster risks, with the help of the provincial weather and hydrological monitoring stations
reducing the impacts of these natural hazards through infrastructural means, such as fl ood detention ponds and weirs;
 increasing the fl ood event return period that structures are designed to accommodate
the ongoing maintenance of stormwater drains to clear them of sand build-up and rubbish?
the development of resilient infrastructure, to include appropriately designed and constructed low-income homes, and stormwater drainage and sewage treatment installations to cope with fl ash fl oods
further risk reduction initiatives would include: * ongoing monitoring and warning of impending disaster risks, with the help of the provincial weather and hydrological monitoring stations; * reducing the impacts of these natural hazards through infrastructural means, such as fl ood detention ponds and weirs; * increasing the fl ood event return period that structures are designed to accommodate; * the ongoing maintenance of stormwater drains to clear them of sand build-up and rubbish; and * the development of resilient infrastructure, to include appropriately designed and constructed low-income homes, and stormwater drainage and sewage treatment installations to cope with fl ash fl oods.
Who asserts taht material and postmaterial values are conceptually unidimensional?
since inglehart asserts that material and postmaterial values are conceptually unidimensional, we also created an index similar to that used with the original scale: individuals were given a score of ''1'' if they prioritized material goals (in this case, ranked them, on average, as more important than the post-material goals), ''2'' if they equally prioritized material and postmaterial goals, and ''3'' if they prioritized postmaterial goals
Paraphrase the scale/score of 1, 2, and 3 denoted by the researchers.
given a score of ''1'' if they prioritized material goals (in this case, ranked them, on average, as more important than the post-material goals), ''2'' if they equally prioritized material and postmaterial goals, and ''3'' if they prioritized postmaterial goals
Which orientation was predictive of this measure?
only political orientation was predictive of this measure, and the scale was only predictive of the number of sources of climate change information and self-rated knowledge
since inglehart asserts that material and postmaterial values are conceptually unidimensional, we also created an index similar to that used with the original scale: individuals were given a score of ''1'' if they prioritized material goals (in this case, ranked them, on average, as more important than the post-material goals), ''2'' if they equally prioritized material and postmaterial goals, and ''3'' if they prioritized postmaterial goals. note that very small differences in ratings of material (e.g., scores of 3, 4, and 3 on the three items) and postmaterial goals (e.g., scores of 4, 4, and 3) were given overall scores of ''2'' on this index. findings using this ranked-based measure were similar to the results for the two ratings-based measures. only political orientation was predictive of this measure, and the scale was only predictive of the number of sources of climate change information and self-rated knowledge.
What did the paleoclimate data tests show?
show mixed but encouraging results
palaeoclimate data tests show mixed but encouraging results. initial tests9 detected critical slowing down during the ending of the last ice age in ice-core data from the greenland ice sheet project 2 (gisp2). subsequent work10 showed increasing autocorrelation in eight palaeoclimate time series' approaching transitions. however, there are no signs of slowing down or increased variability in north greenland ice core project (ngrip) data approaching individual dansgaard-oeschger events during the last ice age13. the glacial greenland climate can be characterized54 by a stable, cold (stadial) climate state and a marginally stable, warm (interstadial) state, with the dansgaard-oeschger events representing unpredictable noise-induced switches between them13,55. however, the cold state became progressively more stable, and the warm state less stable, as the ice age progressed, until sometime before ~25 kyr bp the warm state passed a bifurcation point and
What majorly influences the variability of floodings periodically?
a major periodic influence on this variability is the cyclical climatic phenomenon known as el nino southern oscillation (enso), which may produce large-scale shifts in storm tracks and dramatic changes in rainfall patterns and flood risk (kovats et al., 2003a
What is one problem of attributing a causal link between flood trends and climate change?
one of the problems of attributing a causal link between flood trends and climate change is that flood dynamics may have multiple drivers. the incidence of flooding is strongly affected by a range of environmental changes
flooding and its impacts not only vary across space but also across time. one component of this variation is simply year to year short-term change in the incidence of floods caused by variability in climate. a major periodic influence on this variability is the cyclical climatic phenomenon known as el nino southern oscillation (enso), which may produce large-scale shifts in storm tracks and dramatic changes in rainfall patterns and flood risk (kovats et al., 2003a). the second component, of key interest to this review, is long-term change associated with significant shifts in flood trends over multiple decades. it is important to consider the evidence for recent global flood trends and to address the notion that the incidence of flooding may already be increasing as a result of anthropogenic forcing, through alteration of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere leading to climate change. to date, the evidence for recent upward trend in global flooding remains inconclusive, with no strong concensus emerging from the different global and regional studies. robson (2002) argues that no clear long-term evidence has emerged of an increased global flood trend during the last century. milly et al. (2002) report that the frequency of great floods - floods at 1/100 year levels - increased during the 20th century for large rivers in high-latitude regions of north america and eurasia. yet they found no evidence for an upward trend in floods of lesser magnitude. frei (2003) explains that, though there may appear to have been an accumulation of high-magnitude floods events over the last decade in europe; it is difficult to confirm statistically whether this constitutes a genuine trend because of the small number of actual events being considered. rather, it is preferable to analyse lower-order 'intense' events that are more common and therefore make it easier to detect a trend signal out of the background 'noise' of random variation. in this case, for europe, there does appear to have been a significant trend toward increased intense winter rainfall events over much of the continent in the last five decades. however, it remains unclear whether this change is related to climate change (frei, 2003). one of the problems of attributing a causal link between flood trends and climate change is that flood dynamics may have multiple drivers. the incidence of flooding is strongly affected by a range of environmental changes (bronstert, 2003; woodworth et al. in
ENSO Say low frequency changes in Enzo?
a number of recent studies (timmermann et al. 1999; an and jin 2000; fedorov and philander 2000; fedorov et al. 2003; urban et al. 2000; wang and an 2001, 2002) propose that the low-frequency changes in enso can be attributed to changes in the mean state of the coupled system
ENSO Tell me the average condition?
an implicit assumption built into this proposal is that enso behavior is, to a large extent, controlled by the most unstable coupled mode whose characteristics depend sensitively on the mean state of the coupled system
a number of recent studies (timmermann et al. 1999; an and jin 2000; fedorov and philander 2000; fedorov et al. 2003; urban et al. 2000; wang and an 2001, 2002) propose that the low-frequency changes in enso can be attributed to changes in the mean state of the coupled system. an implicit assumption built into this proposal is that enso behavior is, to a large extent, controlled by the most unstable coupled mode whose characteristics depend sensitively on the mean state of the coupled system. using a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model, fedorov and philander (2000) explored the properties of the most unstable coupled mode in the parameter space spanned by the mean thermocline depth h and the mean strength of the trade wind stresses  their finding suggests that with a moderate change in h and/or  the dominant coupled mode can migrate from an sst-mode regime where the entrainment of cold
What did Severinghaus and Brook discover in 1999?
using an entirely independent methodology based on the temperature dependence of the diffusion of gases within the ice core, severinghaus and brook (1999) and severinghaus et al. (1998) deduced temperature changes at the ice surface of as much as 9*c in a few decades
Why are climate scientists interested in The Younger Dryas?
the younger dryas is the most recent of these abrupt changes. much of the discussion to follow on the spatial and temporal structure of abrupt changes will concern the younger dryas, because this is the best observed, but it is anticipated that the descriptions are generally valid for all the abrupt changes
statistical analysis presented by wunsch shows to be true what the eye perceives, that the greenland climate is bimodal, having two preferred states which it switches inbetween. the histograms of d18o in the two greenland cores (grip and gisp2) show obvious bimodality whereas the antarctic core (byrd) is unimodal, though with a long tail. this is striking evidence of nonlinearity and threshold behavior in the climate system, at least in greenland. wunsch suggests that this arises from switching between two different evaporative source regions for the water that falls as snow onto the greenland core location and can reproduce similar behavior with a two source model, some noise and some simple rules for transitioning between sources. even were the two source explanation to be true it implies that the atmospheric circulation is capable of switching between circulation regimes with different trajectories of atmospheric water vapor and condensate between the oceans and greenland. however it does appear that the original interpretion of the d18o in terms of temperature has some validity. using an entirely independent methodology based on the temperature dependence of the diffusion of gases within the ice core, severinghaus and brook (1999) and severinghaus et al. (1998) deduced temperature changes at the ice surface of as much as 9*c in a few decades. this too may be easiest to explain in terms of rapid changes in atmospheric circulation, as we shall see. the kind of climate change seen in the greenland ice cores almost perfectly fits lorenz's description of an 'almost intransitive' system: 'a particular solution extending over an infinite time interval will possess successive very long periods with markedly different sets of statistics' (lorenz 1968). lorenz developed this concept of climate change, which seems more relevant today than ever, even before the ice core data was available! in summary, abrupt climate changes, consisting of coolings followed by rapid coolings and then abrupt warmings, punctuated the entire glacial period at greenland but no such thing happened in antarctica. at greenland there is enticing evidence of nonlinearity of the climate system with thresholds and switches. the younger dryas is the most recent of these abrupt changes. much of the discussion to follow on the spatial and temporal structure of abrupt changes will concern the younger dryas, because this is the best observed, but it is anticipated that the descriptions are generally valid for all the abrupt changes. paleo.circ february 28, 2005
Where were the latitudinal and elevational ranges taken from?
latitudinal and elevational ranges of each species were taken from previous studies, museum specimens, or fieldwork (data set 1
How were the indices constructed?
temperature indices were constructed from a regression of air temperatures recorded in january (month of peak lizard activity), assuming a starting temperature of 20degc (mean diel temperature in january at the estimated geographic latitudinal and elevational midpoint for liolaemids) and corrected for latitudinal and elevational deviations based on climatic lapse-rate functions
Can the index predict actual temperatures?
because many factors determine the thermal environment at a given place and time (including cloud cover, day length, and vegetation), this index cannot predict actual environmental temperatures
latitudinal and elevational ranges of each species were taken from previous studies, museum specimens, or fieldwork (data set 1). temperature indices were calculated for the latitudinal and elevation midpoints of the range of each species. temperature indices were constructed from a regression of air temperatures recorded in january (month of peak lizard activity), assuming a starting temperature of 20degc (mean diel temperature in january at the estimated geographic latitudinal and elevational midpoint for liolaemids) and corrected for latitudinal and elevational deviations based on climatic lapse-rate functions (45). the temperature index regression for latitude is y  25.79  0.28263 x  0.017708 x2 0.000010727 x3, where y is the corrected temperature (index) for latitude x (45). the lapse-rate function to correct air temperatures at sea level to those at different elevations (45) is 0.65degc  100 m. the sum of the products of each equation, less the starting temperature (here, 20degc), provide a single index for a given latitude and elevation. because many factors determine the thermal environment at a given place and time (including cloud cover, day length, and vegetation), this index cannot predict actual environmental temperatures. however, it provides an index of environmental temperatures that can be used for comparing taxa from different thermal environments resulting from differences in latitude and elevation.
What did the UNFCCC study focus on?
the incremental costs of climate change
What has the issue been termed?
the adaptation deficit
Who computes an optimum defence standard for dykes based on present conditions?
diva
the published estimates of adaptation costs consider only the incremental cost of climate change (i.e., they assume that there is a good existing infrastructure to upgrade for climate change), which is often not the case, especially in developing countries. the unfccc study focused on the incremental costs of climate change, rather than the total cost of adaptation to achieve a significant reduction in vulnerability to all climate factors, including existing variability. this issue has been termed the adaptation deficit (burton, 2004) and shows that the issues of development and the cost of successful adaptation to climate change are intimately linked. the question of the current adaptation deficit for coastal areas has not been systematically addressed. diva computes an optimum defence standard for dykes based on present conditions. while this has not been systematically compared to actual defences, qualitative assessment of
When the net revenue function is U-shaped is the quadratic term positive or negative?
when the quadratic term is positive, the net revenue function is ushaped and when the quadratic term is negative, as in figure 1, the function is hill-shaped
When the net revenue function is hill-shaped is the quadratic term positive or negative?
when the quadratic term is positive, the net revenue function is ushaped and when the quadratic term is negative, as in figure 1, the function is hill-shaped
Crops exhibit what type of shape in relation to annual temperature?
crops consistently exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with annual temperature, although the peak of that hill varies with each crop
the quadratic term reflects the nonlinear shape of the net revenue of the climate response function (equation 2). when the quadratic term is positive, the net revenue function is ushaped and when the quadratic term is negative, as in figure 1, the function is hill-shaped. we expect, based on agronomic research and previous cross-sectional analyses, that farm value will have a hill-shaped relationship with temperature. for each crop there is a known temperature at which that crop grows best across the seasons. crops consistently exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with annual temperature, although the peak of that hill varies with each crop. the relationship of seasonal climate variables, however, is more complex and may include a mixture of positive and negative coefficients across seasons. the change in welfare, d u, resulting from a climate change from c0 to c1 can be measured as follows.
what does financial capital represented by?
financial capital is represented by farm income, farm holding size, farm assets, share of people below the poverty line, share of agricultural gdp, and access to credi
which regions are richer?
regions with higher farm income, larger farms, greater farm value assets, and more access to credit are wealthier
which regions are most susceptible to events and climate change?
in contrast, regions with a higher dependence on agriculture (higher share of agriculture in total gdp) are assumed to be less economically diversified and more susceptible to climatic events and changes (thornton et al ., 2008
financial capital is represented by farm income, farm holding size, farm assets, share of people below the poverty line, share of agricultural gdp, and access to credit these indicators provide a general picture of the rural financial situation of each province. regions with higher farm income, larger farms, greater farm value assets, and more access to credit are wealthier. indeed, wealth generally provides access to markets, technology, and other resources that can be used to adapt to climate variability and change (brenkert and malone, 2005). in contrast, regions with a higher dependence on agriculture (higher share of agriculture in total gdp) are assumed to be less economically diversified and more susceptible to climatic events and changes (thornton et al ., 2008). further, the presence of alternative economic activities provides an indicator of the ability of farmers in a region to shift to other economic activities in response to reduced agricultural income which could result from adverse climatic conditions such as drought (o'brien et al ., 2004).
What did the Greenland ice core show about the climate during the last glaciation?
the d18o content of ice in the greenland core shows frequent rapid drops and even more dramatic increases throughout the last glaciation. the younger dryas appears to have been the most recent of these. the d18o content of ice is supposed to be a proxy for the local temperature when the snow fell although it is also influenced by the d18o content of the water that was evaporated and then transported to fall over the ice core location. either way the record shows dramatic climate changes as much as two thirds of the size of the difference between full glacial and interglacial conditions
What was the difference between the samples from Greenland and Antarctica?
the d18o content of ice in the greenland core shows frequent rapid drops and even more dramatic increases throughout the last glaciation. the younger dryas appears to have been the most recent of these. the d18o content of ice is supposed to be a proxy for the local temperature when the snow fell although it is also influenced by the d18o content of the water that was evaporated and then transported to fall over the ice core location. either way the record shows dramatic climate changes as much as two thirds of the size of the difference between full glacial and interglacial conditions. these changes occurred in decades. the antarctic cores do not show any such rapid climate changes
What did researchers learn from examining methane records?
the timescale of the antarctic core was adjusted to bring the methane records, also shown in figure 1, into agreement on the basis that methane is a wellmixed gas. the fact that this can be done indicates that the source regions for methane, especially in tropical wetlands, were effected by the rapid climate changes (brook et al. 1999) and that the changes were not simply regional north atlantic events. paleo.circ february 28, 2005
the characteristics of abrupt climate change as recorded in polar ice cores from greenland and antarctica have been well described by wunsch (2003). the problem can be seen in figure 1, which is taken from that paper. the d18o content of ice in the greenland core shows frequent rapid drops and even more dramatic increases throughout the last glaciation. the younger dryas appears to have been the most recent of these. the d18o content of ice is supposed to be a proxy for the local temperature when the snow fell although it is also influenced by the d18o content of the water that was evaporated and then transported to fall over the ice core location. either way the record shows dramatic climate changes as much as two thirds of the size of the difference between full glacial and interglacial conditions. these changes occurred in decades. the antarctic cores do not show any such rapid climate changes. wunsch (2003) concludes, quite persuasively that the two are uncorrelated on the millennial timescale (but correlated on the glacialinterglacial timescale), although others have suggested more complex relationships between the two (roe and steig 2004). the timescale of the antarctic core was adjusted to bring the methane records, also shown in figure 1, into agreement on the basis that methane is a wellmixed gas. the fact that this can be done indicates that the source regions for methane, especially in tropical wetlands, were effected by the rapid climate changes (brook et al. 1999) and that the changes were not simply regional north atlantic events. paleo.circ february 28, 2005
Explain about experiment design for phase 6?
schematic of the proposed experiment design for phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip6). the inner ring and surrounding black text involve standardized functions of all cmip, including ongoing diagnosis, evaluation, and characterization of klima (deck) experiments klima is german for "climate
What does the middle ring shows?
the middle ring shows science topics related specifically to cmip6 to be addressed by the mips, with illustrative (and likely not complete) mip topics shown in the outer ring
Why the framework is superimposed?
this framework is superimposed on the scientific backdrop for cmip6--the six grand challenges of the world climate research programme (wcrp), which encapsulate questions related to clouds, circulation, and climate sensitivity; changes in cryosphere; climate extremes; regional climate information; regional sea level rise; and water availability
fig. 1. schematic of the proposed experiment design for phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip6). the inner ring and surrounding black text involve standardized functions of all cmip, including ongoing diagnosis, evaluation, and characterization of klima (deck) experiments klima is german for "climate"). the middle ring shows science topics related specifically to cmip6 to be addressed by the mips, with illustrative (and likely not complete) mip topics shown in the outer ring. this framework is superimposed on the scientific backdrop for cmip6--the six grand challenges of the world climate research programme (wcrp), which encapsulate questions related to clouds, circulation, and climate sensitivity; changes in cryosphere; climate extremes; regional climate information; regional sea level rise; and water availability. an additional science topic involves biospheric forcings and feedbacks.
Mention an important new development in the European ENSEMBLES project
an important new development within the european ensembles project has been to explore performance-based weighting of regional climate models (rcms
What do the authors suggest regarding the model weighting to the climate projections?
we suggest that model weighting adds another level of uncertainty to the generation of ensemble-based climate projections, which should be suitably explored
What is the use of model weights sensitive to?
the use of model weights is sensitive to the aggregation procedure and shows different sensitivities to the selected metrics
an important new development within the european ensembles project has been to explore performance-based weighting of regional climate models (rcms). until now, although no weighting has been applied in multi-rcm analyses, one could claim that an assumption of 'equal weight' was implicitly adopted. at the same time, different rcms generate different results, e.g. for various types of extremes, and these results need to be combined when using the full rcm ensemble. the process of constructing, assigning and combining metrics of model performance is not straightforward. rather, there is a considerable degree of subjectivity both in the choice of metrics and on how these may be combined into weights. we explore the applicability of combining a set of 6 specifically designed rcm performance metrics to produce one aggregated model weight with the purpose of combining climate change information from the range of rcms used within ensembles. these metrics capture aspects of model performance in reproducing large-scale circulation patterns, meso-scale signals, daily temperature and precipitation distributions and extremes, trends and the annual cycle. we examine different aggregation procedures that generate different inter-model spreads of weights. the use of model weights is sensitive to the aggregation procedure and shows different sensitivities to the selected metrics. generally, however, we do not find compelling evidence of an improved description of mean climate states using performance-based weights in comparison to the use of equal weights. we suggest that model weighting adds another level of uncertainty to the generation of ensemble-based climate projections, which should be suitably explored, although our results indicate that this uncertainty remains relatively small for the weighting procedures examined. key words: rcm * ensemble forecast * climate projections
How the pest species are moving ?
pest species are also moving poleward and upward
How further the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) has expanded over the past 32 years ?
over the past 32 years, the pine processionary moth (thaumetopoea pityocampa) has expanded 87 km at its northern range boundary in france and 110-230 m at its upper altitudinal boundary in italy (battisti et al. 2005
How did the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) has responded to warmer temperatures in the Rocky Mountain range of United States?
in the rocky mountain range of the united states, mountain pine beetle (dendroctonus ponderosae) has responded to warmer temperatures by altering its life cycle
pest species are also moving poleward and upward. over the past 32 years, the pine processionary moth (thaumetopoea pityocampa) has expanded 87 km at its northern range boundary in france and 110-230 m at its upper altitudinal boundary in italy (battisti et al. 2005). laboratory and field experiments have linked the feeding behavior and survival of this moth to minimum nighttime temperatures, and its expansion has been associated with warmer winters. in the rocky mountain range of the united states, mountain pine beetle (dendroctonus ponderosae) has responded to warmer temperatures by altering its life cycle. it now only takes one year per generation rather than its previous two years, allowing large increases in population abundances, which, in turn, have increased incidences of a fungus they transmit (pine blister rust,
What do we mean by objective here?
objective: a quantitative projection of future shifts in species of gambierdiscus
What do we mean by method?
method: growth models developed for three caribbean species of gambierdiscus were run using 11 global climate model projections for specific buoy locations in the western gulf of mexico, yucatan channel, and eastern caribbean sea through 2099
How is ciguatera fish poisoning caused?
ciguatera fish poisoning is caused by consumption of fish contaminated with toxins produced by dinoflagellates, such as those of the genus gambierdiscus
importance: ciguatera fish poisoning is caused by consumption of fish contaminated with toxins produced by dinoflagellates, such as those of the genus gambierdiscus there is a well-established link between warm sea surface temperatures and increased occurrence of cfp,171 and thus concern that global ocean warming will affect the risk of illness. objective: a quantitative projection of future shifts in species of gambierdiscus method: growth models developed for three caribbean species of gambierdiscus were run using 11 global climate model projections for specific buoy locations in the western gulf of mexico, yucatan channel, and eastern caribbean sea through 2099. for further detail, see kibler et al. 2015.199
what does the albedo parameterization make use of?
the albedo parameterization by gardner and sharp [2010] makes use of snow grain size, optical thickness of clouds, and solar zenith angle
Is the new parameterization capable of simulating subtle variations in albedo?
application of the new parameterization to a 21 year run (1989 - 2009) over the antarctic continent shows that the new parameterization is capable of simulating subtle variations in albedo due to small amounts of melt water and short periods of intense snow metamorphism
When in places where ice appears at the surface during melt season what needs to be done?
for the use at locations where ice appears at the surface during the melt season, e.g., the greenland ablation area, or typical ice caps and glaciers, the parameterization presented here needs to be extended with a part that deals with ice albedo
a new albedo parameterization, based on snow grain size, has been implemented into the racmo2.1 regional atmospheric climate model. to that end, snow grain size was introduced as a new prognostic variable in the snowpack. for each model layer, snow grain size evolution is computed due to dry and wet metamorphism, and due to refreezing of locally produced melt water. the albedo parameterization by gardner and sharp [2010] makes use of snow grain size, optical thickness of clouds, and solar zenith angle. an altitude - dependent term has been added to account for varying optical thickness of the clear - sky atmosphere. application of the new parameterization to a 21 year run (1989 - 2009) over the antarctic continent shows that the new parameterization is capable of simulating subtle variations in albedo due to small amounts of melt water and short periods of intense snow metamorphism. moreover, the effect of cloud cover on albedo is taken care of in such a way that variability of the surface albedo is much more realistically simulated than with the old parameterization. in the application to present - day antarctic climate, the surface is always covered with snow, and its albedo rarely drops below values for older snow of about 0.75. for the use at locations where ice appears at the surface during the melt season, e.g., the greenland ablation area, or typical ice caps and glaciers, the parameterization presented here needs to be extended with a part that deals with ice albedo. the expressions by gardner and sharp [2010] can equally be applied to ice, in which enclosed air bubbles with size re' act as scatterers in an ice medium. however, one will need either a prognostic scheme for air bubble concentration and size, or these quantities have to be prescribed. as an alternative, one could work with a fixed albedo for ice surfaces. experiments with racmo2.1 over the greenland ice sheet addressing this issue are in progress. now that racmo2.1 has been fitted with a better albedo parameterization, more accurate estimates of the antarctic mass balance and of the amount of continent - wide produced melt water are possible. for applications to the present climate, satellite observations of areal melt extent can be expanded to a melt volume. running the model for future climate scenarios can give insights to the evolution of snow albedo and the energy budget of the snowpack in coastal regions, and of future meltwater production rates on ice shelves that may have important repercussions on the dynamic behavior of the coastal parts of the ice sheet. acknowledgments. the authors would like to thank three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions to improve this manuscript. this research was partly funded by nwo/alw grant 818.01.016.
Home many equations does the random effects estimat
1). the random effects estimator is used to estimate six equations
What is genrally not rejected
restrictions that equalize the slopes and/or intercept among meteorological stations generally are not rejected
How many equations are the same among stations
d. the slopes and intercept are the same among stations for 22 equations
restrictions that equalize the slopes and/or intercept among meteorological stations generally are not rejected. the slopes and intercept are the same among stations for 22 equations, and these equations are estimated using ordinary least squares (table 1). the random effects estimator is used to estimate six equations, for which the intercept varies among stations and the slopes are the same. finally, test statistics reject restrictions that equalize the slopes or intercept for eight equations; therefore, these equations are estimated using the random coefficient model. the presence/absence of a causal relationship from urbanization to precipitation varies by season and buffer size (table 1). results reject the null hypotheses that 2  0 and that the s2 a and s3 a statistics equal zero for winter. for spring and fall, results generally reject 2  0 but fail to reject the null hypothesis that the s2 a
The study described in the text indicates uncertainties where?
this study indicates large uncertainties in future atmospheric co2
DGVMs simulate what?
all dgvms simulate cumulative net carbon uptake by 2099 in response to changes in future climate and atmospheric composition for all sres scenarios
All five DGVMs have a productivity response similar to which material?
all five dgvms have similar response of productivity to elevated atmospheric co2 in agreement with field observations
this study indicates large uncertainties in future atmospheric co2 concentrations associated with uncertainties in the terrestrial biosphere response to changing climatic conditions. all dgvms simulate cumulative net carbon uptake by 2099 in response to changes in future climate and atmospheric composition for all sres scenarios; however, the magnitude of this uptake varies markedly among dgvms. all five dgvms have similar response of productivity to elevated atmospheric co2 in agreement with field observations (norby et al ., 2005). the dgvms are in less agreement in the way they respond to changing climate. however, consistent among dgvms is a release of land carbon in response to climate, implying a significant positive climatecarbon cycle feedback in each case. this response is mainly due to a reduction in npp and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra-tropics, respectively. major dgvm uncertainties include the following: npp response to climate in the tropics; soil respiration response to climate in the extra-tropics. uncertainty in future cumulative land uptake (494 pg c) associated with land processes is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels. therefore, improving our ability to model terrestrial biosphere processes (e.g. plant response to drought/heat stress) is paramount if we are to enhance our ability to predict future climate change.
Which region is examined?
the edward's aquifer region around san antonio texas
The demand of water is increasing? And in wich sectors?
increases urban and agricultural demand for water
how many dollars per year are loss due to climate change?
our estimates are that the regional welfare loss was estimated to be between $2.2 -6.8 million per year due to climate change
we also examined the complex interactions of agriculture-climate-environment in the edward's aquifer region around san antonio texas 24 and nitrogen run-off into the chesapeake bay 25 ). in both of these regional studies, we found increasing threats to the environment under the climate scenarios. the edwards aquifer region, contrary to most of the rest of country, becomes drier in these scenarios and this increases urban and agricultural demand for water. resultant increased pumping of groundwater from the aquifer combined with reduced rainfall would threaten surface spring flows supported by the aquifer that are habitat of protected endangered species. our estimates are that the regional welfare loss was estimated to be between $2.2 -6.8 million per year due to climate change. if springflows are to be maintained at the currently protected level, pumping must be reduced by 1 0 to 20% below current legislated levels at an additional cost of $0.5 to 2 million per year.
What actions the decision-maker needs to evaluate regarding managed relocation?
the actions that the decision-maker needs to evaluate regarding managed relocation include whether and where to move individuals, which kinds of individual to move, how many to move, whether to move all at once or in staggered cohorts, what methods to use for release and whether a period of temporary captivity is required
What are the number of assumptions that have been implicit in past discussions of managed relocation.
there are a number of assumptions that have been implicit in past discussions of managed relocation. first, the motivation for managed relocation is that the suitability of the current (source) habitat, for example, population growth rate or carrying capacity, will decline over time owing to climate change ks( t ), fig. 1). second, the notion of managed relocation assumes that there is somewhere else that will be better for the species at some point in the future kd( t ), fig. 1). third, for managed relocation to be effective, at least one of the source and destination sites must be suitable at any one time (unless temporary captivity is being considered). fourth, there is a demographic cost to moving individuals and only a fraction, ph will survive and become established at the destination (fig. 1). fifth, the quality of the habitat in the destination needs to be sufficiently high that recovery of the population is feasible within the desired time period, t this habitat quality could be expressed as the expected intrinsic growth rate in the destination
What are the considerable uncertainty about many of the assumptions?
considerable uncertainty about many of these. how much and how quickly will the source habitat decline? how much and how quickly will the destination habitat improve? what fraction of the population might die during relocation? what will be the intrinsic growth rate of the species in the destination
the actions that the decision-maker needs to evaluate regarding managed relocation include whether and where to move individuals, which kinds of individual to move, how many to move, whether to move all at once or in staggered cohorts, what methods to use for release and whether a period of temporary captivity is required. we examine what we believe to be the primary consideration with respect to our uncertainty about the impacts of climatic shifts: at what time to move. to illustrate our framework, we assume that the relocation involves moving every individual all at once. this strategy is applicable in situations where wild populations are perilously small (for example, california condor, gymnogyps californianus and orange-bellied parrot, neophema chrysogaster27). our framework, however, could easily be extended to consider more complex methods of implementation such as staggered movement. predicting the consequences of alternative management strategies in terms of their ability to achieve objectives requires making explicit assumptions about the system dynamics. there are a number of assumptions that have been implicit in past discussions of managed relocation. first, the motivation for managed relocation is that the suitability of the current (source) habitat, for example, population growth rate or carrying capacity, will decline over time owing to climate change ks( t ), fig. 1). second, the notion of managed relocation assumes that there is somewhere else that will be better for the species at some point in the future kd( t ), fig. 1). third, for managed relocation to be effective, at least one of the source and destination sites must be suitable at any one time (unless temporary captivity is being considered). fourth, there is a demographic cost to moving individuals and only a fraction, ph will survive and become established at the destination (fig. 1). fifth, the quality of the habitat in the destination needs to be sufficiently high that recovery of the population is feasible within the desired time period, t this habitat quality could be expressed as the expected intrinsic growth rate in the destination. the success of a managed relocation programme hinges on these assumptions; the difficulty is that there is likely to be considerable uncertainty about many of these. how much and how quickly will the source habitat decline? how much and how quickly will the destination habitat improve? what fraction of the population might die during relocation? what will be the intrinsic growth rate of the species in the destination? three tools are valuable in the face of this uncertainty: predictive habitat modelling with explicit articulation of uncertainty, for example, by coupling general circulation models with species-specific habitat suitability models28, monitoring of key response variables and bayesian updating of the predictions in light of emerging monitoring data. in the face of uncertainty, a full-fledged decision framework should include explicit articulation of critical uncertainties and an ongoing monitoring programme designed to resolve that uncertainty, both key components of adaptive management15,16,29.
What is Oxygen?
oxygen is poorly soluble in water. compounding this, its solubility in water decreases ~2% per degree centigrade
How to identify the lower Hb-oxygen affinity
gill ventilation must compensate for the decreased oxygen availability and the lower hb-oxygen affinity, as well as increased tissue oxygen demand as temperature increases
How to maintain P aO2?
the data for salmonids are inconsistent on this matter. when exercising adult sockeye salmon oncorhynchus nerka were warmed to a temperature well above topt, p ao2 was maintained (steinhausen et al., 2008). similar results were found in resting chinook salmon o
oxygen is poorly soluble in water. compounding this, its solubility in water decreases ~2% per degree centigrade. therefore, gill ventilation must compensate for the decreased oxygen availability and the lower hb-oxygen affinity, as well as increased tissue oxygen demand as temperature increases. therefore, a decrease in p ao2 during warming would indicate a clear problem associated with gill oxygen delivery and transfer. however, the data for salmonids are inconsistent on this matter. when exercising adult sockeye salmon oncorhynchus nerka were warmed to a temperature well above topt, p ao2 was maintained (steinhausen et al., 2008). similar results were found in resting chinook salmon o. tshawytscha warmed up to tcrit
What vegetation differences are caused by the warm dry climate of southeast Vancouver Island compared to the cool and moist parts of the island?
rainfall is sufficiently low that around victoria, quercus garryana woodlands and meadows replace the typical dense conifer forests of the rest of vancouver island
The early Holocene is characterized by high values of which pollens?
the early holocene is characterized by high values of pinus, pseudotsuga, alnus and poaceae pollen
What pollen changes were observed between 8000-7000 BP?
the arrival of quercus and first increases in cupressaceae pollen between 8000-7000 bp complete the arboreal assemblage
further south the warm dry climate of southeast vancouver island supports cdf vegetation and also exhibits a history markedly different from cool and moist parts of the island. in this region rainfall is sufficiently low that around victoria, quercus garryana woodlands and meadows replace the typical dense conifer forests of the rest of vancouver island. calvin heusser (1985) summarized his early work at malahat and linda heusser's (1983) marine core from saanich inlet (fig. 1, #8, 9) to provide a general framework. communities of pinus conforta and perhaps pinus monticola dougl. ex dougl. in lamb (western white pine), containing alnus, were commonplace in the late-glacial. the early holocene is characterized by high values of pinus, pseudotsuga, alnus and poaceae pollen. the arrival of quercus and first increases in cupressaceae pollen between 8000-7000 bp complete the arboreal assemblage (heusser, 1983). oak persisted at high percentages until 3000-2000 bp, after which increases in
Which measures can be used to detect and track evidence of climate-related change as early as possible?
watershed vulnerability assessments provide managers with answers to the following questions
What is the local, regional, or national importance of ecosystem services, including ecological, economic, and social resources? *
watershed vulnerability assessments provide managers with answers to the following questions
Which watershed properties are likely to be affected by climate trends, such as changes in runoff from shrinking snowpacks, changing patterns of groundwater recharge, and loss of habitat for sensitive species
watershed vulnerability assessments provide managers with answers to the following questions
watershed vulnerability assessments provide managers with answers to the following questions: * what is the local, regional, or national importance of ecosystem services, including ecological, economic, and social resources? * which important aquatic species may be at risk of population decline or habitat loss owing to changes in waterflows or levels? * in which watersheds is the risk to these resources greatest? * which watersheds may serve as climate change refugia because they are expected to experience the least impact? * which watersheds are high priorities for management to sustain desired hydrologic functions under changing climate? * which ecosystem services are most vulnerable to climate shifts or to the landand water-use changes likely to accompany them? * which watershed properties are likely to be affected by climate trends, such as changes in runoff from shrinking snowpacks, changing patterns of groundwater recharge, and loss of habitat for sensitive species? * which management actions can reduce the unwanted effects of climate change, protect high-value watershed resources, or increase watershed resilience? * which measures can be used to detect and track evidence of climate-related change as early as possible?
How was the family separated from the servants?
in the building the resident family was separated from the servants in a system of complex vertical and horizontal planning in which three zones can be identified
Which floor did the family have their bedrooms?
the piano nobile, or first floor, is where the family had its living and dining areas and bedrooms
Did the second floor contain store rooms?
the second floor housed the staff and more family, and the top floor housed store rooms and servants, linked to the ground floor by a separate stairwell not used by the family
pallazzo gravina is a courtyard-style renaissance palace dating to the sixteenth century with introverted planning. in the building the resident family was separated from the servants in a system of complex vertical and horizontal planning in which three zones can be identified. the double-height ground floor includes stables, guards and storage rooms, and steps down to cellars. the colonnaded walkway lends shade to the lower walls of the building and floor of part of the court. a single tree in the court harks back to former gardens. the piano nobile, or first floor, is where the family had its living and dining areas and bedrooms. the second floor housed the staff and more family, and the top floor housed store rooms and servants, linked to the ground floor by a separate stairwell not used by the family. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is the direct effect of climate change?
the direct effects of climate change are predictable although many are not. for example, higher concentrations of co2 in the atmosphere will lower the ph level of the sea as it changes the carbonate-bicarbonate ion balance
What is the negative impact of this climate change?
a negative impact on corals and calcifying invertebrates and some vertebrate species whose larvae are relatively sensitive to increased acidity higher ocean temperatures are expected to shift fish populations to higher latitudes while migration of pathogens and parasites to new locations with climate change may cause population declines for species that may have had no prior exposure sea-level rise
What is the impact of change in ocean ?
changes in ocean circulation are also expected to reduce new primary productivity in key fishing areas although some locations may benefit from these changes
some of the direct effects of climate change are predictable although many are not. for example, higher concentrations of co2 in the atmosphere will lower the ph level of the sea as it changes the carbonate-bicarbonate ion balance. this, in turn, is expected to have a negative impact on corals and calcifying invertebrates and some vertebrate species whose larvae are relatively sensitive to increased acidity higher ocean temperatures are expected to shift fish populations to higher latitudes while migration of pathogens and parasites to new locations with climate change may cause population declines for species that may have had no prior exposure sea-level rise, coupled with a higher incidence of intense storm activity, is expected to have negative impact on coastal breeding grounds of some key species, such as prawns. changes in ocean circulation are also expected to reduce new primary productivity in key fishing areas although some locations may benefit from these changes.
Who does the fuel poverty affect the most?
fuel poverty particularly affects older people who are especially vulnerable to the adverse health effects of cold living conditions
What increases excess winter emergency hospital admissions for respiratory disease?
there is also evidence that increased risk of fuel poverty among older people is a predictor for increased excess winter emergency hospital admissions for respiratory disease
What temperature does the Geriatrics Society recomend?
the british geriatrics society recommends 21 deg c as a suitable indoor temperature for older people
fuel poverty particularly affects older people who are especially vulnerable to the adverse health effects of cold living conditions. yet, in the uk in particular, they are often least able to afford sufficient heating and are most likely to live in poorly insulated housing with inefficient heating systems. high numbers of excess winter deaths among those aged over 65 are associated with these factors. there is also evidence that increased risk of fuel poverty among older people is a predictor for increased excess winter emergency hospital admissions for respiratory disease. 37 pensioners are likely to spend more time at home than others and are therefore more susceptible to poor thermal conditions where they occur. the british geriatrics society recommends 21 deg c as a suitable indoor temperature for older people. 14 older people are most at risk because they are generally less mobile than others and because the body's thermoregulatory system can deteriorate with age. in the latter case, awareness of temperature extremes is affected, which influences a person's ability to take appropriate avoiding action when the temperature drops. ' cold stress ' exacerbates circulatory disease and results from fluctuations in temperature, 38 such as moving between warm and cold rooms. however, moving from a cold dwelling to the cold outside produces greater cardiovascular strain than going out from a warm house. 39 other groups vulnerable to cold-related illness are the very young and the chronically sick. children are particularly subject to ' wheeze ' in damp conditions, which often occur together with cold. low temperatures will also slow reflexes and affect coordination, especially among older people, and can therefore be the cause of accidents in the home. apart from the recognized physical effects of cold housing on health, mental health problems can arise from the compounded stress of living in debilitating cold and damp conditions. a uk study found that interventions to alleviate fuel poverty, resulting in improved home temperatures and thermal comfort, were significantly associated with improved mental well-being. 40 increasing central heating ownership has been linked with the declining numbers of excess winter deaths over recent decades, but the spread of central heating may not have benefited the most vulnerable groups. 41 after all, central heating ownership does not guarantee that its use can be afforded by householders. research in the uk suggests that increased vulnerability to winter death from cardiovascular disease is linked to indoor temperature and thermal efficiency of housing. 42 other work has shown that lack of central heating is associated with a higher risk of dying in winter but identifies the need to explore further the influence of socio-economic factors and other measures of housing quality. 43 fuel-poor groups in britain appear to be far more vulnerable to dying from cold in winter than those who can afford to heat their houses properly. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
According to the article,, how long will the polar cap of Mount Kilimanjaro end?
the ice cap on mount kilimanjaro may be gone in 20 years
According to the article, what are the consequences of temperature changes?
temperature changes are already causing 90% of the world's glaciers to retreat and some to disappear completely, with potentially catastrophic consequences for communities that rely on meltwater for irrigation, hydroelectric power and drinking water, and also communities affected by sea level rises
How many degrees increased in temperature in the Alps since 1970s?
in the alps, where summer temperatures have risen by 2.1 deg c since the 1970s
this is occurring at an alarming rate, with glaciers on five major continents disappearing rapidly. the ice cap on mount kilimanjaro may be gone in 20 years and the summer of 2003 saw melting of the permafrost levels in many parts of the alps, destabilizing mountain slopes and closing off the matterhorn to visitors for the first time in its history. temperature changes are already causing 90% of the world's glaciers to retreat and some to disappear completely, with potentially catastrophic consequences for communities that rely on meltwater for irrigation, hydroelectric power and drinking water, and also communities affected by sea level rises. in the alps, where summer temperatures have risen by 2.1 deg c since the 1970s, summer flows in glacier-fed rivers have doubled, enabling hydroelectric dams to remain full and power stations to generate at maximum capacity, helping to take up the load slack from the nuclear power stations that, owing to low river flow elsewhere, could not generate at full capacity during the heatwave of 2003 in europe. so there are many other knock-on effects from such melts. in the longer term many glaciers will only survive at the highest altitudes. only scandinavian and alaskan glaciers are not receding, and in some cases are increasing owing to increased snowfall locally, another side effect of climate change. another problem is that because of the higher atmospheric pressure experienced in the alps there is now less snowfall there, resulting in glaciers not being replenished as before. scandinavia, by contrast, is in the path of the changed track of the atlantic depressions, as is britain, resulting in extra rainfall in these countries. in other regions of the world the picture is much worse; the glaciers of central asia are disappearing at a rapid rate, threatening severe future drinking water
Fill in the blank. Where _________ is reduced, productivity, diversity and the area of wetlands will decline with possible increases in the area of salt flats
where rainfall is reduced, productivity, diversity and the area of wetlands will decline with possible increases in the area of salt flats168
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part ii: species and species groups where rainfall is reduced, productivity, diversity and the area of wetlands will decline with possible increases in the area of salt flats168. reduced rainfall will lead to reductions in sedimentation. within the gbr, sedimentation in mangroves has been observed to vary between -11 mm per year (erosion) to 10 mm per year95,26,171,34. at the higher end, sedimentation is higher than projected sea level rise, but there is not sufficient data to determine what levels of sedimentation in mangroves occur over most of the gbr. in a study of sedimentation in southern australia, sedimentation was higher in mangroves compared to salt marsh (approximately 5 mm per year in mangroves and 2.5 mm per year in salt marsh150). sedimentation increased linearly with tidal range (sedimentation in mm per year -4 3.7 x tidal range in metres). extrapolation using the tidal range of the gbr, and assuming a similar sediment supply suggests sedimentation could vary from 1.6 to 2.8 mm per year, which is at the low end of the published range and is slightly lower than current rates of sea level rise. thus areas of the gbr with low tidal ranges, low rainfall and limited sediment supply are more likely to experience retreat of seaward fringing mangroves with sea level rise compared to those areas with high tidal range, high rainfall and an ample sediment supply, which are conditions where mangrove expansion is likely to occur.
What is the importance of understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change?
understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action (schneider, 2001, 2002
On what have separate scientific and policy discourses based their definitions?
to date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by 'experts
What are internal and external definitions of risk?
external definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived - it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger
tyndall centre for climate change research, school of environmental sciences, university of east anglia, norwich nr4 7tj, u.k. e-mail: s.dessai@uea.ac.uk 2centre for social and economic research on the global environment (cserge), school of environmental sciences, university of east anglia, norwich nr4 7tj, u.k. 3department of applied economics, university of cambridge, sidgwick avenue, cambridge cb3 9de, u.k. understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action (schneider, 2001, 2002). to date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by 'experts'. we argue that it is not possible to make progress on defining dangerous climate change, or in developing sustainable responses to this global problem, without recognising the central role played by social or individual perceptions of danger. there are therefore at least two contrasting perspectives on dangerous climate change, what we term 'external' and 'internal' definitions of risk. external definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived - it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger. a robust policy response must appreciate both external and internal definitions of danger.
How many grid cells was the fire atlas recording area divided into?
to evaluate whether fires were more geographically widespread in regional-fire years than in other years, we divided the fire atlas recording area into 17 grid cells, each 1.5 8 longitude by 1.5 8 latitude and counted the number of grid cells containing fire polygons in each year
How large was each grid cell that the fire atlas was divided into?
to evaluate whether fires were more geographically widespread in regional-fire years than in other years, we divided the fire atlas recording area into 17 grid cells, each 1.5 8 longitude by 1.5 8 latitude and counted the number of grid cells containing fire polygons in each year
How many regional-fire years were part of the report?
we report the median and range of number of these 17 grid cells with fire for the 11 regional-fire years and the 93 other years
to evaluate whether fires were more geographically widespread in regional-fire years than in other years, we divided the fire atlas recording area into 17 grid cells, each 1.5 8 longitude by 1.5 8 latitude and counted the number of grid cells containing fire polygons in each year. we report the median and range of number of these 17 grid cells with fire for the 11 regional-fire years and the 93 other years. climate drivers of regional-fire years we used instrumental temperature, which we normalized (i.e., subtracted the mean and divided by the standard deviation) and averaged across the five climate divisions covered by the fire atlas (divisions 1, 4, 8, and 10 in idaho and 1 in montana, data available online ).7
why do Transitions between colors remain fuzzy
transitions between colors remain fuzzy because there was (and there still is) uncertainty about the increase in gmt associated with a transition from little or no risk to some risk and from some to substantial and/or widespread risk for any specific system or sector
why does  in the TAR introduce another source of uncertainty?
as was true in the tar, the aggregation of risk across many different sectors, regions, or populations under a particular rfc is subjective, and thereby introduces another source of uncertainty
how The width and placement of the transitions in each bar can be?
the width and placement of the transitions in each bar can nonetheless still be interpreted as visual representations of aggregated damage functions for each rfc, with narrower and lower transitions representing rapidly changing levels of risk as a function of temperature
fig. 1 right shows the results of our assessment based on literature since the tar. in updating the ''embers,'' we retained the same color scheme and structure as the tar. the same scale for temperature change frames the update. transitions between colors remain fuzzy because there was (and there still is) uncertainty about the increase in gmt associated with a transition from little or no risk to some risk and from some to substantial and/or widespread risk for any specific system or sector. as was true in the tar, the aggregation of risk across many different sectors, regions, or populations under a particular rfc is subjective, and thereby introduces another source of uncertainty. the width and placement of the transitions in each bar can nonetheless still be interpreted as visual representations of aggregated damage functions for each rfc, with narrower and lower transitions representing rapidly changing levels of risk as a function of temperature. we take each rfc in turn in this update. our assessment of risk for each is based on not only new information about impacts and vulnerabilities assessed in the ar4 and since, but also more clearly established criteria for identifying ''key vulnerabilities'' (3).
Where is an eastward extension of the jet also found?
for instance, although the weakening of the moc might in part play a role, an eastward extension of the jet is also found in slab ocean experiments where the oceanic heat transport is unchanged between present and future simulations (woollings et al. 2012
Where is an apparent inconsistency between the jet and the tracks found?
an apparent inconsistency between the jet and the tracks is found in the subtropical central atlantic where the jet becomes stronger but the number of cyclones decreases
What is a common feature of the DJF and JJA track density and wind intensity responses?
a common feature of the djf and jja track density and wind intensity responses is therefore a reduction on the southernmost latitudes with cyclone activity, including the previously discussed subtropical central atlantic area, which has a strengthened jet stream in djf
however, there is no clear picture of what basic climate process might drive such eastward extension. for instance, although the weakening of the moc might in part play a role, an eastward extension of the jet is also found in slab ocean experiments where the oceanic heat transport is unchanged between present and future simulations (woollings et al. 2012). future analyses will have to understand this important aspect of the regional atmospheric circulation change. an apparent inconsistency between the jet and the tracks is found in the subtropical central atlantic where the jet becomes stronger but the number of cyclones decreases. also, mizuta (2012) finds little association in the monthtomonth variability between the observed jet stream speed and the number of strong cyclones over this region. this may suggest that the enhanced baroclinicity associated with the stronger subtropical jet is not available for cyclone development, possibly because it is too far south from the region of highest low-level baroclinicity that sits over the gulf stream. other mechanisms, discussed below, might therefore be important in this region. in jja, the response in the jet stream appears to be well associated with the response in the cyclone tracks. the u250 decreases on the southern flank of the jet stream and increases on the northern flank (see fig. 9d). the pattern is suggestive of a poleward shift and resembles the track density response. a common feature of the djf and jja track density and wind intensity responses is therefore a reduction on the southernmost latitudes with cyclone activity, including the previously discussed subtropical central atlantic area, which has a strengthened jet stream in djf. this common feature is likely associated with the well-known tendency to a broadening of the tropics and increase in subtropical static stability in response to climate change (seidel et al. 2007; lu et al. 2008, 2009).
Define particular stabilization?
the pathway to meeting a particular stabilization target will have an impact on mitigation cost (see figure spm-9
Define low emission technologies view?
a gradual transition away from the world's present energy system towards a less carbon-emitting economy minimizes costs associated with premature retirement of existing capital stock and provides time for technology development, and avoids premature lock-in to early versions of rapidly developing low-emission technology
What is the final result of this study?
these studies did not incorporate carbon sequestration and did not examine the possible effect of more ambitious targets on induced technological change. also, the issue of uncertainty takes on increasing importance as the time frame is expanded
the pathway to meeting a particular stabilization target will have an impact on mitigation cost (see figure spm-9). a gradual transition away from the world's present energy system towards a less carbon-emitting economy minimizes costs associated with premature retirement of existing capital stock and provides time for technology development, and avoids premature lock-in to early versions of rapidly developing low-emission technology. on the other hand, more rapid near-term action would increase flexibility in moving towards stabilization, decrease environmental and human risks and the costs associated with projected changes in climate, may stimulate more rapid deployment of existing low-emission technologies, and provide strong near-term incentives to future technological changes. studies show that the costs of stabilizing co2 concentrations in the atmosphere increase as the concentration stabilization level declines. different baselines can have a strong influence on absolute costs (see figure spm-9). while there is a moderate increase in the costs when passing from a 750 to a 550 ppm concentration stabilization level, there is a larger increase in costs passing from 550 to 450 ppm unless the emissions in the baseline scenario are very low. although model projections indicate long-term global growth paths of gdp are not significantly affected by mitigation actions towards stabilization, these do not show the larger variations that occur over some shorter time periods, sectors, or regions. these studies did not incorporate carbon sequestration and did not examine the possible effect of more ambitious targets on induced technological change. also, the issue of uncertainty takes on increasing importance as the time frame is expanded.
How many leaves of A. elatius were collected?
a set of three fully matured leaves of a. elatius from every plot was selected. in each plot, two sun-exposed leaves of five individual plants were sampled and combined
How many replicates were consider for each measurement?
every measurement was replicated twice and the accuracy in d -values was better than 0.1
at the end of drought, a set of three fully matured leaves of a. elatius from every plot was selected. in each plot, two sun-exposed leaves of five individual plants were sampled and combined. the samples were oven-dried for 48 h at 80  c. the dry leaves were ball-milled and subsamples of 1 mg analysed for d13c with an elemental analyser attached to an isotope-ratio mass spectrometer using conflo iii interface (thermo electron, bremen, germany). the carbon isotope composition d13c) of a sample was calculated as: d13c [(rsample / rstandard) 1] * 1000, expressed in units of per thousand ). 13c:12c ratios were calculated against the p.d. belemite standard (precision of 0.2 ). the results were compared with other measurements to determine changes associated with shifts in13c. every measurement was replicated twice and the accuracy in d -values was better than 0.1
What did they do to account for changes in the number of denuge/DHF cases?
detrended the case data and the modelled mosquito data, and calculated the correlation coefficients between detrended and non-detrended values
What is the modelled mosquito strongly influenced by?
temperature
What provides ample precipitation for mosquito surviival?
the onset of the asian monsoon around the middle of june
to account for changes in the number of dengue/ dhf cases between 1958 and 1995 due to non-climate factors such as population increases or migration, we detrended the case data and the modelled mosquito data, and calculated the correlation coefficients between detrended and non-detrended values. 3. results 3.1. model seasonal variation in the density (mosquitoes m-2of container surface water) and distribution of the modelled adult female mosquito population is shown in fig. 1a-d for january, april, july and october, respectively, averaged over 1961-1990. the modelled mosquito is strongly influenced by temperature, as evidenced by the northward and southward seasonal shifts in distribution. precipitation is also an important factor for the mosquito's survival. the onset of the asian monsoon around the middle of june provides ample precipitation for mosquito survival, and this is reflected by the dramatic increase in mosquito density from april to july in india and southeast asia. to determine the response of the mosquito model to its climatic inputs, or to determine the climatic sensitivity of the model, we correlated month-to-month variations in simulated larvae densities against variations in the individual climatic parameters that drive the model (fig. 2). the strongest relationship occurs between variations in mosquito larvae densities and temperature (fig. 2a). the next strongest correlations occur with precipitation (fig. 2b) and relative humidity (fig. 2c), followed by fractional cloud cover (fig. 2d). the most significant connections between modelled mosquito and temperature variations occur in the moist tropical regions. this is expected given that temperature affects mosquito development rates, oviposition,
This report is an important first step in better understanding what?
this report is an important first step in better understanding how climate risks (both current and future) can undermine food security in bangladesh
What category is the Cyclone Sidr?
with hardly any time to recover, on 15 november 2007 the deadly cyclone sidr, a category iv storm, made landfall across the southern coast of the country, causing over 3000 deaths
Which three things will have important impacts on the agriculture sector?
the prospect of changing temperatures and precipitation patterns, the uncertainty of the timing and magnitude of extreme events, and rising sea levels will have important impacts on the agriculture sector
this report is an important first step in better understanding how climate risks (both current and future) can undermine food security in bangladesh. it identifies key areas that require concerted effort by the government and its many development partners. the year 2007 was indicative of the development challenges that bangladesh faces. severe flooding from july to september 2007 along the ganges and brahmaputra rivers affected over 13 million people in 46 districts and caused extensive damage to agricultural production and physical assets. with hardly any time to recover, on 15 november 2007 the deadly cyclone sidr, a category iv storm, made landfall across the southern coast of the country, causing over 3000 deaths. the economic damages amounted to over us$1 billion, with over a million tons of rice destroyed. then, the increase in international prices of oil and food, which bangladesh imports, put further strains on both government budgets and household livelihoods. the long-term economic consequences of these three simultaneous shocks remain to be seen, but they have shown the inherent vulnerability of bangladesh to climate risks and the degree to which food security remains a major challenge for the country. with too much water during the heavy monsoon months and too little water during the spring and early summer months, communities have needed to adapt to changing conditions. they have done so by adopting new varieties of crops and new farming practices and by starting small businesses and trades to diversify incomes. furthermore, over the last several decades the government has invested heavily and wisely to protect its citizenry to ensure growth and a prosperous nation. this includes investments in infrastructure, including embankments and cyclone shelters which have saved countless numbers of lives, in early warning systems to help the country prepare for imminent disasters, and polders to protect vital agricultural areas to maintain production to feed its population. the gains from these investments continue to support a growing nation. climate change, however, threatens to offset to some degree these important advances. the prospect of changing temperatures and precipitation patterns, the uncertainty of the timing and magnitude of extreme events, and rising sea levels will have important impacts on the agriculture sector. action is needed today because bangladesh will continue to depend on the agriculture sector for growth and poverty reduction. investments from the public and private sectors will have to increase if bangladesh is to ensure food security for its current and future populations. the challenges that the agriculture sector will face as it adapts to climate change coincide well with the needs required to address the climate variability risks of today. thus, the adaptation options identified are no-regret approaches and only a small example of what is possible. i hope that this report can serve as a useful and meaningful guide for bangladesh (and other countries) in addressing a future uncertain world.
What is the main purpose of this paragraph?
that historically project management has been built on particular theoretical assumptions that have been found wanting or are no longer valid
When was the first PRINCE standard was published?
the first prince standard was published in 1990
When was PRINCE2 released?
prince2 was released in 1996
the main thrust of this critique is that historically project management has been built on particular theoretical assumptions that have been found wanting or are no longer valid. in winter and checkland's 43 case they point an accusatory finger at hard systems thinking and approaches. in the language of earlier chap ters the culprit is the overreliance on systematic, rather than systemic thinking. however, they are also at pains to say that both 'paradigms' are required. what is principally missing, they argue, is lack of awareness that the particular image of mainstream project management practice represents that conventional wisdom which the practice has itself generated. in turn the understandings upon which these practices have evolved have been reified into social technologies known as 'good project management'. in 'images of projects', winter and szczepanek 44 reject "outright the idea of a one 'best way' to view all projects and also the idea of following a prescriptive approach". they 'encourage a more pragmatic and reflec tive approach, based on deliberately seeing projects from multiple perspectives.' i have my own experiences of project management practices that are more systematic than systemic and unsuited to the context in which they were employed. a particular example involved understandings that have been reified into project management procedures known as prince2 as sponsored by the uk government. the acronym prince stands for projects in controlled environments. the first prince standard was published in 1990 and whilst it is subject to crown copyright it is available in the public domain. prince2 was released in 1996 for use in more than just it (information technology) projects 12 my particular experience was based in the environment agency of england wales (ea), a large statutory body with about 12,000 employees, responsible for most aspects of environmental moni toring, regulation and compliance in england and wales. at the time we were engaged in research related to the implementation of the european water framework directive (wfd), an ambitious policy designed to improve the quality and ecological status of europe's water in river basins over the period 2000 to 2027. prince2 was mandated for use within the uk civil service on projects above a certain size. prince2, it was claimed, was needed in order to manage
What indicates the color of the estimated curve?
different specifications of the link between temperature and yield growth are indicated by the color of the estimated curve
What the black lines show?
the black line shows the specification where yield growth is modeled as an eighth-order polynomial function of temperature and the 95% confidence band after adjusting for spatial correlation is added in gray
What each specification shows?
each specification shows the same characteristic shape, increasing modestly up to a critical temperature and then decreasing sharply
estimates and standard errors of temperature effects for all three crops are displayed in fig. 1. the figure has three frames, where each column represents one crop. different specifications of the link between temperature and yield growth are indicated by the color of the estimated curve. the blue line shows the most flexible specification, a step function that fits a separate growth rate for each three-degree temperature range. the black line shows the specification where yield growth is modeled as an eighth-order polynomial function of temperature and the 95% confidence band after adjusting for spatial correlation is added in gray. the red line shows a piecewise linear specification that follows the agronomic concept of degree days. each specification shows the same characteristic shape, increasing modestly up to a critical temperature and then decreasing sharply. for corn, the critical threshold temperature is 29deg c; for soybeans it is 30deg c; and for cotton it is 32deg c. the vertical axis in each figure marks the log of yield (bushels per acre for corn and soybeans and bales per acre for cotton) with the exposure-weighted average predicted yield normalized to zero. the horizontal axis is temperature. in comparing two points on any curve, a vertical difference of 0.01 indicates an
Overall we can conclude that present day changes in CTI are not fast enough to track what?
overall we can conclude that present day changes in cti are not fast enough to track the recent rate of increase in summer temperatures
Instead, this lagged response may be caused by what?
instead, this lagged response may be caused by breeding and natal site tenacity (greenwood and harvey 1982), or the inability to detect and respond to small temperature changes
In addition, many species are dependent on what?
in addition, many species are dependent on particular vegetation and habitat types, and vegetation does not respond to temperature as fast as birds (svenning et al. 2008, kissling et al. 2010, bertrand et al. 2011
8-ev rates have thus been fairly similar in recent years. overall we can conclude that present day changes in cti are not fast enough to track the recent rate of increase in summer temperatures. te reason for this lag, and its effect on individual fitness and bird population abundance, are not yet clear. te actual movement needed to track temperature change, 10-15 km yr 1, should not be a problem per se for the highly mobile birds. instead, this lagged response may be caused by breeding and natal site tenacity (greenwood and harvey 1982), or the inability to detect and respond to small temperature changes. in addition, many species are dependent on particular vegetation and habitat types, and vegetation does not respond to temperature as fast as birds (svenning et al. 2008, kissling et al. 2010, bertrand et al. 2011). in the longest time series, birdsong valley, tsummer
Where is the synchrony of fire in dry forests located?
synchrony of fire in dry forests across the northern rockies, usa
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) reconstruction is from where?
the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo) reconstruction is from d'arrigo et al
Where are climate gradients located?
climate condition gradients are on the right-hand axes
fig. 2. synchrony of fire in dry forests across the northern rockies, usa (top panel; vertical bars, number of sites with fire), and number of dry forest fire-scar sampling sites with  2 trees recording (top panel; the dotted line indicates recording sites). we identified regional-fire years (solid triangles in bottom four panels) as those with  5 sites with fire (horizontal solid line in the top panel). lines are tree-ring reconstructed climate, and heavy lines are climate smoothed with cubic splines that retain 50 of the variance at periods of 25 years. the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo) reconstruction is from d'arrigo et al. (2001). the temperature time series shows departure from  0.11 8 c, the mean temperature during the reference period from 1951 to 1970 (briffa et al. 1992). nin~ o-3 is the enso reconstruction for the season with the greatest impact on spring climate in the study area. pdsi is the palmer drought severity index. climate condition gradients are on the right-hand axes.
What does velocity data demonstrate about Baltoro Glacier?
derived velocity data demonstrate that baltoro glacier is currently active across its entire ablation and debris-covered area
What is the trend in glacier motion?
there is a general pattern of increasing motion with distance from the terminus, with the maximum velocity just below concordia
derived velocity data demonstrate that baltoro glacier is currently active across its entire ablation and debris-covered area, with displacements of  15-20 m a-1, well in excess of the estimated noise in the data  7 m a-1), detected immediately up-glacier of the terminus (fig. 3). there is a general pattern of increasing motion with distance from the terminus, with the maximum velocity just below concordia. this maximum of  180 m a-1is located at the peak of a steep flow gradient (fig. 3 inset). up-glacier, the velocity drops steeply as the profile extends up the baltoro south tributary, reaching a maximum of  170 m a-1, until the feature-tracking algorithm is no longer able to track features reliably over the clean-ice area. transverse velocity profiles extracted from annually averaged data are in agreement with the general trend of increasing flow with distance from the terminus (fig. 4). the lowermost profile (t1) lacks displacement data towards the glacier margins, but shows uniform velocity across the glacier width and a gradual reduction in flow with distance from the centre line. profiles t2-t5 are of a distinctly 'blocky' nature, with little variation in flow speed across almost the entire width of the glacier, and a rapid decrease
What did the present research examined?
perceptions of racial and academic climate as mediators of the perception of gcc in a racially diverse sample of university students
Using the perceptions of racial and academic climate as mediators of the perception of GCC in a racially diverse sample of university students, what did do?
distinguished between the effects of a student's race and the nonracial factors encountered by all students
Academic climate was hypothesized as what?
as a better predictor of gcc for graduate students of all races, because of the centrality of academic concerns to the lives of graduate students. these predictions were tested in the present research
the present research examined perceptions of racial and academic climate as mediators of the perception of gcc in a racially diverse sample of university students. using this approach, we distinguished between the effects of a student's race and the nonracial factors encountered by all students. the present study built on previous work in a number of substantive ways. first, although much of the prior research documented racial differences in the perception of climate, few studies explicitly focused on explanatory factors other than race. second, this study documented the perceptions of african american, latino, asian american, and white students, thereby replicating and extending the findings of previous research by examining multiple racial groups. third, relatively few prior studies have differentiated between students' perceptions of the general campus, racial, and academic climates. finally, little previous research has examined perceptions of climate for both undergraduate and graduate students. the inclusion of both of these student populations provided a more thorough understanding of campus climate. a number of predictions emerged from prior research. first, members of racial minority groups at all levels were predicted to report more negative perceptions of every type of climate. although no clear predictions emerged regarding the ordering of these groups, it was likely that african american and latino students would report the most negative perceptions of climate compared with asian american and then white students. assuming racial differences in the perception of climate, perceptions of the racial climate were thought to better predict perceptions of gcc for racial minority undergraduate students, whereas perceptions of the academic climate were thought to better predict perceptions of gcc for white undergraduates. academic climate was hypothesized as a better predictor of gcc for graduate students of all races, because of the centrality of academic concerns to the lives of graduate students. these predictions were tested in the present research.
Which day was fixed vernal equinox?
we fixed the vernal equinox at day 81
How is a year divided in their model?
in our model one year is divided into 12 months of 30 days each
What are the others forcings in the model?
i.e., solar constant, other greenhouse gases, ice-sheet configuration
hans renssen et al .: modelling of high-latitude southern hemisphere holocene climate 953 that we fixed the vernal equinox at day 81, while in our model one year is divided into 12 months of 30 days each. this is common practice in modelling studies focusing on holocene climate (e.g., crucifix et al ., 2002; weber et al ., 2004). we realize that it would have been more appropriate to use a calendar in which the duration of the months depends on their angular length (joussaume and braconnot, 1997) but, as this would require substantial adjustments to our model, we have chosen to apply a calendar with months of equal duration for convenience. all other forcings (i.e., solar constant, other greenhouse gases, ice-sheet configuration) were fixed at their
What is the present study suggest?
the present study integrates role theory, social exchange, organizational citizenship, and climate research to suggest that employees will reciprocate implied obligations of leadership-based social exchange (e.g., leader-member exchange [lmx]) by expanding their role and behaving in ways consistent with contextual behavioral expectations (e.g., work group climate
What is the relationship between LMX and subordinate safety citizenship?
using safety climate as an exemplar, the authors found that the relationship between lmx and subordinate safety citizenship role definitions was moderated by safety climate
What is LMX high quality relationships resulted in?
in summary, high-quality lmx relationships resulted in expanded safety citizenship role definitions when there was a positive safety climate and there was no such expansion under less positive safety climates
the present study integrates role theory, social exchange, organizational citizenship, and climate research to suggest that employees will reciprocate implied obligations of leadership-based social exchange (e.g., leader-member exchange [lmx]) by expanding their role and behaving in ways consistent with contextual behavioral expectations (e.g., work group climate). using safety climate as an exemplar, the authors found that the relationship between lmx and subordinate safety citizenship role definitions was moderated by safety climate. in summary, high-quality lmx relationships resulted in expanded safety citizenship role definitions when there was a positive safety climate and there was no such expansion under less positive safety climates. the authors also found that safety citizenship role definitions were significantly related to safety citizenship behavior. implications for both social exchange theory and safety research are discussed.
How does the model guide practitioners and scholars?
it guides practitioners and scholars in how to engineer the work group context to facilitate more productive forms of employee motivation and provides an alternative means for achieving positive goal orientation-based outcomes to what has been offered in the goal orientation literature to date
Why is goal orientation important to study?
as a potent predictor of individual-level outcomes and a vehicle through which a range of practically significant employee motivations may be examined, goal orientation is well deserving of study
What does the proposed model explain?
the proposed model extends previous theorizing by explicating how and why leadership and resulting multilevel climate processes impact group member state goal orientation and by clarifying the multilevel complexities related to these key antecedent processes
as a potent predictor of individual-level outcomes and a vehicle through which a range of practically significant employee motivations may be examined, goal orientation is well deserving of study. the proposed model extends previous theorizing by explicating how and why leadership and resulting multilevel climate processes impact group member state goal orientation and by clarifying the multilevel complexities related to these key antecedent processes. in doing so, it guides practitioners and scholars in how to engineer the work group context to facilitate more productive forms of employee motivation and provides an alternative means for achieving positive goal orientation-based outcomes to what has been offered in the goal orientation literature to date. i offer this theoretical foundation, along with suggestions for future research, in the hopes of stimulating empirical study of state goal orientation and expanding researchers' theoretical and practical treatment of this domain of research.
what will happen while climate change?
climate change puts at risk many of nature's benefits, or ecosystem services, that humans derive from the sea
what is the main purpose of the study?
understanding how human activities and a changing climate
what are the advantages?
one of the many advantages of nature-based protection
climate change puts at risk many of nature's benefits, or ecosystem services, that humans derive from the sea. these impacts will have repercussions for society's dependence on the ocean for wild-caught and farmed food, recreation, nutrient cycling, waste processing, protection from natural hazards, climate regulation, and other services. for example, climate-induced sea-level rise could put added pressure on coastal infrastructure and thus the health and safety of human communities. natural habitats such as wetlands, mangroves, coral and oyster reefs, and seagrasses buffer coastlines from erosion and inundation, providing important protective services. one of the many advantages of nature-based protection is that those same habitats also provide other benefits, including nursery grounds for commercial and recreationally valued species, filtration of sediment and pollutants, and carbon storage and sequestration. the social values of these services are broad and include those reflected in markets, avoided damage costs, maintenance of human health and livelihoods, and cultural and aesthetic sustenance. understanding how human activities and a changing climate are likely to interact to affect the delivery of these ecosystem services is of the utmost importance as we make decisions now that affect the health of marine and coastal systems and their ability to sustain future generations.
What does evolutionary theory suggests in regard to the divergent natural selection in heterogeneous environments?
evolutionary theory suggests that divergent natural selection in heterogeneous environments can result in locally adapted plant genotypes
Which subject is important to study to understand the local adaptation better?
to understand local adaptation it is important to study the ecological factors responsible for divergent selection
Which factors can have a positive effect on the growing seasons?
our results show that the importance of climate and soil factors as drivers of local adaptation is species-dependent. this could be related to differences in interactions between plant species and soil biota
evolutionary theory suggests that divergent natural selection in heterogeneous environments can result in locally adapted plant genotypes. to understand local adaptation it is important to study the ecological factors responsible for divergent selection. at a continental scale, variation in climate can be important while at a local scale soil properties could also play a role. we designed an experiment aimed to disentangle the role of climate and (abiotic and biotic) soil properties in local adaptation of two common plant species. a grass holcus lanatus and a legume lotus corniculatus ), as well as their local soils, were reciprocally transplanted between three sites across an atlantic-continental gradient in europe and grown in common gardens in either their home soil or foreign soils. growth and reproductive traits were measured over two growing seasons. in both species, we found significant environmental and genetic effects on most of the growth and reproductive traits and a significant interaction between the two environmental effects of soil and climate. the grass species showed significant home site advantage in most of the fitness components, which indicated adaptation to climate. we found no indication that the grass was adapted to local soil conditions. the legume showed a significant home soil advantage for number of fruits only and thus a weak indication of adaptation to soil and no adaptation to climate. our results show that the importance of climate and soil factors as drivers of local adaptation is species-dependent. this could be related to differences in interactions between plant species and soil biota.
Explain EI Nino effect event occured on 1997-98?
during the 1997-98 el nino event, one of peru's most prestigious scientific institutions lost credibility by making several high visibility forecasts early on that there would be only moderate rains in the north of the country instead of the torrential rains that actually occurred
How many banks had lost?
17some banks generally appeared to lose confidence in all forecasting and, acting in a risk averse fashion (again the payoff function matters), decided to stop making loans altogether
Explain the role of firms?
firms with sufficient satellite and communications equipment have tried this, and further, during the 1997-98 el nino, firms increased the frequency and length of trips in expectation of future fishing regulations based on current climate forecasts
during the 1997-98 el nino event, one of peru's most prestigious scientific institutions lost credibility by making several high visibility forecasts early on that there would be only moderate rains in the north of the country instead of the torrential rains that actually occurred.17some banks generally appeared to lose confidence in all forecasting and, acting in a risk averse fashion (again the payoff function matters), decided to stop making loans altogether. others seemed to ignore the forecasts, and continued making loans as normal. other reactions (in addition to rejection of a forecast) may also run counter to the outcomes anticipated or desired by forecast providers. take fish sustainability as a goal, for instance. if forecasts of upwelling conditions developed from climate forecasts were of sufficient spatial resolution and lead time, industrial fleets might switch locations and thus increase their extractive capabilities, lowering future fish stocks. firms with sufficient satellite and communications equipment have tried this, and further, during the 1997-98 el nino, firms increased the frequency and length of trips in expectation of future fishing regulations based on current climate forecasts. taking instead increasing the welfare of labor as a goal, other privately optimal reactions might be seen as negative from certain social points of view. given weak labor laws (e.g., no minimum wage during closed seasons), and weak labor unions, management may fire workers in response to a prediction of an el nino event (at least one firm reported doing this). 5. societal benefit and dissemination choices as a result of changes in funding after the cold war it is increasingly common to justify scientific work on the basis of societal benefits (pielke jr. and glantz, 1995). however, as noted, historically typical mandates such as 'to increase societal benefit' may not be specific enough to distinguish among competing conceptions of benefit, some of which would be served by one forecast dissemination strategy and some by others. returning to our example, table i provides one summary of variable conceptions of benefit within the peruvian fishery as observed during this study; note that each group could be broken into subcategories which themselves may have competing goals. thus, overly broad mandates may provide inadequate guidance for choosing between different dissemination strategies. unless it is understood whose welfare contributes to societal benefit, a forecast provider can not even know which dissemination strategies would result in net benefits for society.18
What is the cause of increasing uncertainty of effective rainfall in Anantapur and Mahbubnagar?
the record shows that inter-annual variability has been increasing in recent years in both anantapur and mahbubnagar and thus increasing uncertainty of effective rainfall events to support crop growth
Give two farmer observations that confirm increasing uncertainty of effective rainfall in Anantapur and Mahbubnagar
farmer observations supported this; nearly half of the farmers surveyed noted an increase in "unexpected rains", which can be taken to mean "uncertainty". in focus group discussions, farmers also agreed that in the last couple of years they had seen unseasonal rains and higher temperatures resulting in changes in all the seasons; summer was longer, winter was warmer
Name one data collection method that was used to collect information from farmers
in focus group discussions, farmers reported a reduction in the number of cold days and an increase in number of extreme hot days
the record shows that inter-annual variability has been increasing in recent years in both anantapur and mahbubnagar and thus increasing uncertainty of effective rainfall events to support crop growth. farmer observations supported this; nearly half of the farmers surveyed noted an increase in "unexpected rains", which can be taken to mean "uncertainty". in focus group discussions, farmers also agreed that in the last couple of years they had seen unseasonal rains and higher temperatures resulting in changes in all the seasons; summer was longer, winter was warmer. however, only a very small percentage of farmers noted observing an increase in unpredictable weather, which suggests that the changes farmers perceive are within the range of variability with which they are familiar. extreme temperature events could have major impacts on the subsistence farming in drought-prone areas such as anantapur. in focus group discussions, farmers reported a reduction in the number of cold days and an increase in number of extreme hot days. they described an increase in the minimum temperature as 'intensity of cold decreasing' and perceived higher temperatures in summer and winter. the record shows that the maximum number of consecutive dry days at anantapur increased over the period from 1965 to 2007. the magnitude of this change was approximately from 80 days in 1960 to around 120 days in 2007. in qualitative focus group discussions farmers reported observing "longer winters" which they described as a lengthening of the period without rainfall. the anantapur region was particularly vulnerable to changes in climate extremes as a result of its exposure to climate variability, shallow soils and low value crops. an annual time series of temperature index was computed, without removing the seasonal cycle. this means that changes in a hot day index will tend to be representative of changes in hottest seasons. as seen in figure 4, the number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 35 oc18has increased and may have an impact on crops in terms of enhanced water requirements and sensitivity to temperature maximum thresholds. also seen in figure 4, the number of days with a minimum temperature of greater than or equal to 26 oc is increasing19.
What did this study investigate?
this study investigated predictors of climate change engagement in a community sample of residents in three regions of british columbia
What is another target audience based on ths results?
based on the results, another target audience is women, who showed greater receptivity to climate change issues than men
What implications does a sense of connection to a place have?
a sense of connectedness to place has broad implications; local ties are relevant to engagement with climate change issues, and thus, individuals with strong place attachment may serve as a scannell and gifford 79 promising group to whom adaptation and mitigation strategies could be promoted
this study investigated predictors of climate change engagement in a community sample of residents in three regions of british columbia. it provides improvements to the measurement of climate change engagement and advances understanding of climate change mitigation by considering the role of place attachment and local message framing. a sense of connectedness to place has broad implications; local ties are relevant to engagement with climate change issues, and thus, individuals with strong place attachment may serve as a scannell and gifford 79 promising group to whom adaptation and mitigation strategies could be promoted. based on the results, another target audience is women, who showed greater receptivity to climate change issues than men. beyond that, local message frames appear to improve communication of negative climate impacts. these results provide empirical evidence for several untested propositions about climate change communication and barriers to climate action.
What does the multiple-mediation analysis indicate?
consistent with our main hypothesis, the multiple-mediation analysis indicated that perceived change in past water availability had a significant indirect effect on both sets of mitigation practices, which were mediated only through farmers' global climate change beliefs and concerns
What does the significant direct effect of global climate change?
a significant direct effect of global climate change belief and concern on farmers' willingness to adopt mitigation practices was observed in all models (fig. 2
What does the findings provide?
these findings provide evidence that the attitudes motivating mitigation versus adaptation behavior tend to be cognitively represented at different construal levels
consistent with our main hypothesis, the multiple-mediation analysis indicated that perceived change in past water availability had a significant indirect effect on both sets of mitigation practices, which were mediated only through farmers' global climate change beliefs and concerns. a significant direct effect of global climate change belief and concern on farmers' willingness to adopt mitigation practices was observed in all models (fig. 2). this contrasts with adaptation practices that show a different pattern, whereby local concern for future water availability was the only significant mediator between the independent and dependent variables (fig. 3). among the two types of adaptation practices, only new irrigation practices were significantly affected by local water concerns, which mediated the effect of perceived change in past water availability. adopting new cropping practices such as using a drought tolerant variety of a farmers' current crop or shifting to a less water intensive crop had a lesser likelihood of adoption among farmers (fig. 1), which explains why these practices were not influenced by local and global concerns in our models. these findings provide evidence that the attitudes motivating mitigation versus adaptation behavior tend to be cognitively represented at different construal levels. these results are consistent with psychological experiments conducted by sanna et al. showing that high level construal leads to cooperative environmental behavior (e.g. mitigation practices), while lower level construal generally encourages action to safeguard one's selfinterest (e.g. adaptation) the fact that psychologically distant concerns were a key determinant of mitigation behavior is likely a function of the processing required for one to develop cogent beliefs (or skepticism) regarding the veracity, cause, and solution for global climate change. this suggests that adoption of mitigation practices is motivated more by a farmer's belief in and concern for long-term risks to society at large as opposed to the near-term personal risks, which, by contrast, are one of the goals of adaptation. thus, framing climate change in terms of global impacts and the societal ''gains'' that might be achieved through mitigation can appeal to an individual's desire to contribute to the public good and may yield greater adoption than messages intended to provoke fear of local and/or personal consequences by contrast, adaptation among these farmers is primarily motivated by their concern for local climate impacts, which have low level construal and are by definition psychologically close (table 1). individuals who are operating in a psychologically proximate mindset be they farmers or otherwise will tend to pursue specific goals that they perceive as being both feasible and effective for dealing with problems near at hand past studies also indicate that the adoption of agricultural practices to cope with climate change is strongly influenced by affect and emotion, presumably because affect-driven concerns tend to be construed as psychologically closer to one's personal circumstances [24,31]. for example, when people know from past experience that certain circumstances pose a threat to them, feelings of concern and worry motivate them to take specific self-protective measures this combination of context-specific goal-setting and elevated emotional engagement, which are characteristics of a low level
what is participatory research?
participatory research into climate change adaptation options can help agricultural decision makers realize that acting on the existing trends in climate now is likely to be to their advantage (e.g., ref. 18). for example, in northeast australia, crop management that has continuously adjusted to the progressive reduction in frost risk experienced over the past several decades can almost double gross margins when compared with management based on either the long-term risk or management that does not consider frost risk
what is participatory engagement?
participatory engagement with decision makers, by bringing their practical knowledge into the assessment, can also identify a more comprehensive range of adaptations than are typically explored by scientists
what are the practicality of options and contribute?
as well as being able to assess the practicality of options and contribute to more realistic assessment of the costs and benefits involved in management or policy change
participatory research into climate change adaptation options can help agricultural decision makers realize that acting on the existing trends in climate now is likely to be to their advantage (e.g., ref. 18). for example, in northeast australia, crop management that has continuously adjusted to the progressive reduction in frost risk experienced over the past several decades can almost double gross margins when compared with management based on either the long-term risk or management that does not consider frost risk (19). participatory engagement with decision makers, by bringing their practical knowledge into the assessment, can also identify a more comprehensive range of adaptations than are typically explored by scientists, as well as being able to assess the practicality of options and contribute to more realistic assessment of the costs and benefits involved in management or policy change (19).
What does the temperature profile associated with an emissions pathway depends on?
the temperature profile associated with an emissions pathway depends on uncertainty in our understanding and modeling of the climate system
What is required for the analysis of stabilization profiles and their likelihood of success in achieving the goal of avoiding DAI?
analysis of stabilization profiles and their likelihood of success in achieving the goal of avoiding dai requires explicit treatment of the uncertainty in the climate system
Any stabilization level for greenhouse gases can produce a distribution of possible temperature increases: but do they all exceed a given threshold for DAI or not?
thus, any stabilization level for greenhouse gases can produce a distribution of possible temperature increases, some of which may exceed a given threshold for dai, some of which may not
the temperature profile associated with an emissions pathway depends on uncertainty in our understanding and modeling of the climate system. thus, any stabilization level for greenhouse gases can produce a distribution of possible temperature increases, some of which may exceed a given threshold for dai, some of which may not. analysis of stabilization profiles and their likelihood of success in achieving the goal of avoiding dai requires explicit treatment of the uncertainty in the climate system. our approach is quantitative: probabilistic analyses of temperature distributions associated with each profile. to quantify this probabilistic framework, we apply our dai metrics to representative concentration stabilization profiles generated by emissions pathways from the three approach categories in ref. 20, for 500and 600-ppm co2e stabilization levels. all profiles reach their target stabilization level by the year 2200, with the os profiles peaking in 2100 at a level 100 ppm co2e above the final target. these stabilization profiles, well within the published range, are primarily offered to demonstrate the framework, not to bound future outcomes, as higher and lower emissions pathways are still quite plausible. temperature projections
How much does the global temperature went up after the severe El Nino of 1997-98?
after the severe el nino of 1997-98 the global temperature went up by over 0.2oc9
What were the effects of 1997/98 El Nino in Indonesia, north/east Brazil, and East Africa?
it caused droughts and forest fires in indonesia and north-east brazil, and catastrophic floods in east africa
What massive outbreak in Nairobi happened during the El Nino of 1997-98?
among its many other effects was the extensive coral bleaching that occurred in the indian ocean and red sea and a massive outbreak of a paederus rove beetle in nairobi that caused severe dermatitis
although enso is primarily a pacific ocean process, the effects are felt as far away as africa and, indeed, in most regions of the world. six months after an el nino phase the global mean surface air temperature increases. in the tropics and sub-tropics this seems to be a consequence of the heat that is given up to the atmosphere as the water cools down in the la nina phase. after the severe el nino of 1997-98 the global temperature went up by over 0.2oc9 during an el nino year the december to february weather is wetter in eastern africa but drier to the south, while la nina produces the reverse. la nina also produces cooler weather in west africa (figure 2.3). the 1997/98 el nino was one of the strongest of the 20th century. it caused droughts and forest fires in indonesia and north-east brazil, and catastrophic floods in east africa. among its many other effects was the extensive coral bleaching that occurred in the indian ocean and red sea and a massive outbreak of a paederus rove beetle in nairobi that caused severe dermatitis.10 the following la nina of 1998-2000 brought devastating floods further north in the sudan and sahel, and in the south in mozambique. the floods in the south were then followed by two major cyclones, which also appear to have been generated by la nina.11
What is the effect of including land-water interface?
inclusion of the land-water interface makes the coastal zone sensitive to changes in water levels, wave climate, storminess, ice cover and other climate-related factors
What are the factors affected by  health and sustainability of the coastal zone?
the health and sustainability of the coastal zone affects tourism and recreation, fisheries, transportation, trade and communities
How to address the vulnerability of Canada's coastal zone?
ntegrative studies of climate change impacts at the local scale, involving physical and social scientists along with stakeholders, are required to properly address the vulnerability of canada's coastal zone and determine the most appropriate adaptation options
from an economic, environmental and social perspective, canada's coastal zone is of paramount importance. the health and sustainability of the coastal zone affects tourism and recreation, fisheries, transportation, trade and communities. inclusion of the land-water interface makes the coastal zone sensitive to changes in water levels, wave climate, storminess, ice cover and other climate-related factors. changes in these variables would result in accelerated rates of shoreline change and present a range of challenges to the sustainability of the coastal zone. impacts will vary regionally, with significant areas of the atlantic coast, the fraser delta region of british columbia, and the beaufort sea coast recognized as being highly sensitive to sea level rise. changes in sea-ice cover will likely be the most significant direct impact of climate change for the northern coastal region, whereas changes in water levels will be the key concern along the atlantic, pacific and great lakes coasts. improved understanding of the regional differences will help in targeting adaptation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the coastal zone. a solid framework for adapting to the impacts of both climate changes and accelerated sea level rise lies in the strategies of retreat, accommodate and protect. integrative studies of climate change impacts at the local scale, involving physical and social scientists along with stakeholders, are required to properly address the vulnerability of canada's coastal zone and determine the most appropriate adaptation options. incorporating these considerations into the long-term planning process will reduce both the net impacts of climate change and the cost of adaptation.
Why there requires further analysis?
another issue requiring further analysis concerns the necessary incentives to landowners within the host country
Who provide estimate of the income?
santilli et al (2003a) provide an estimate of the income that a country could accrue for each hectare of forest saved from deforestation, and compare this with the opportunity cost of using the land for agricultural purposes
Why comparison is rather theoretical ?
however, such a comparison is rather theoretical as it 1) assumes that the landowner and not only the government will benefi t from carbon-related funds; and 2) calculates the benefi ts for each hectare of forest actually saved from deforestation, and not all forests that are candidates for being deforested (which would be more appropriate as explained in item
another issue requiring further analysis concerns the necessary incentives to landowners within the host country. santilli et al (2003a) provide an estimate of the income that a country could accrue for each hectare of forest saved from deforestation, and compare this with the opportunity cost of using the land for agricultural purposes. however, such a comparison is rather theoretical as it 1) assumes that the landowner and not only the government will benefi t from carbon-related funds; and 2) calculates the benefi ts for each hectare of forest actually saved from deforestation, and not all forests that are candidates for being deforested (which would be more appropriate as explained in item b) below).
what are the reasons for which this report deliberately supports a conservative approach to the agreed facts?
first, even the most conservative estimates are profoundly disturbing and demand action. second, less conservative climate change scenarios are so catastrophic that adaptation might be unachievable
What did the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) reported that societies can respond to climate change by adapting to its eff ects and by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), thereby decreasing the rate and magnitude of change
how many years will it take to carbon emissions to have a full effect?
it can take 20-30 years for carbon emissions to have a full eff ect
the potential health eff ects of climate change are immense. management of those health issues is an enormous challenge not only for health professionals but also for climate change policy makers. an integrated and holistic political response is vital for good social, economic, and ethical reasons. consistent with this ambition, we have brought together a multidisciplinary group to explore this urgent issue. anthropogenic climate change is now incontrovertible. the amount of change and its intensity, along with the willingness and capacity to mitigate it, are subject to considerable debate and controversy. this report deliberately supports a conservative approach to the agreed facts for two reasons. first, even the most conservative estimates are profoundly disturbing and demand action. second, less conservative climate change scenarios are so catastrophic that adaptation might be unachievable. however, although conservative on the estimates and cognisant of the possibility of pessimistic outcomes, we are optimistic on what can be achieved by a collaborative eff ort between governmental and non-governmental entities at all levels, and concerned citizens at the community level. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) reported that societies can respond to climate change by adapting to its eff ects and by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), thereby decreasing the rate and magnitude of change.1 the capacity to adapt and mitigate depends on socioeconomic and environmental circumstances, and the availability of information and technology. less information is available about the costs and eff ectiveness of adaptation measures than about mitigation measures. climate change is not just an environmental issue but also a health issue. the ability to adapt to the health eff ects of climate change depends on measures that reduce its severity--ie, mitigation measures that will drastically reduce carbon emissions in the short term, but also increasing the planet's capacity to absorb carbon. this is a crucial issue that must be acted upon urgently. however, we only focus on how we might adapt to and avoid the negative health eff ects of climate change that, because it can take 20-30 years for carbon emissions to have a full eff ect, and for deforestation and ecosystem damage to become apparent, will occur even with the best possible mitigation action. in this report, we review the consensus science on climate change and then briefl y explore its health implications. we address six ways in which climate change can aff ect health: changing patterns of disease and morbidity, food, water and sanitation, shelter and human settlements, extreme events, and population and migration. we then present a policy framework to address the major obstacles to responses to the health eff ects of climate change, and how policy responses might address these issues.
which animal was tracked to note relation of temperature to animal growth
of masked shrews sorex cinereus in alaska
what relationship of the shrew to its environment was considered
a) residual body length; (b) residual tail length
what did happen to shrew growth
the increase in body length and tail length is significant
the relationship between: (a) residual body length; (b) residual tail length (annual mean values, corrected for latitude, longitude and sinus month of collection, where may  1/4  1) and year of collection (corrected for mean annual temperature at talkeetna 62.30 n 150.10 w, alaska, a site close to the distribution centre of our data) of masked shrews sorex cinereus in alaska; the increase in body length and tail length is significant 2 p ln p  1/4  15.544; p 0.005); (c) mean ambient temperature at talkeetna significantly increased p 0.0001) by 2.8  c during the study period (1950- 2004); (d) sorex cinereus (photo courtesy of phil myers and the animal diversity web, university of michigan museum of zoology).
The index of the droplet seize distribution determines what?
the index of the droplet size distribution determines the spectral dispersion, and is therefore important in calculating numerous microphysical processes that depend upon droplet size
What do bulk microphysics parameterizations typically specify?
bulk microphysics parameterizations typically specify a constant value of pc or spectral dispersion (e.g., ferrier 1994; girard and curry 2001) or assume a monodisperse droplet population (e.g., reisner et al. 1998). observations (e.g., curry 1986) show that the spectral dispersion varies substantially within the cloud
the index of the droplet size distribution determines the spectral dispersion, and is therefore important in calculating numerous microphysical processes that depend upon droplet size. for example, narrowing of the size spectra will tend to inhibit coalescence and freezing of the droplets (khvorostyanov and curry 1999c). bulk microphysics parameterizations typically specify a constant value of pc or spectral dispersion (e.g., ferrier 1994; girard and curry 2001) or assume a monodisperse droplet population (e.g., reisner et al. 1998). observations (e.g., curry 1986) show that the spectral dispersion varies substantially within the cloud. khvorostyanov and curry (1999b,c) derive a simple expression for the index of the droplet size distribution as a function of several cloud and thermodynamic parameters using an analytic solution to the general kinetic equation describing stochastic condensation: pc w k lqc
Despite the deterioration of their natural habitats, what species of animal have shown a spectacular increase in numbers?
species of herbivorous waterfowl
What exploitation correlates with population size and the populations of Baltic barnacle geese?
the degree of agricultural exploitation
How many species of geese are classified as being of vulnerable conservation status in Europe?
only two species of geese are classified
despite the deterioration of their natural habitats many species of herbivorous waterfowl have shown a spectacular increase in numbers. but is modern agriculture the cause of major expansion of these herbivorous birds? to answer this question we have summarized the factors operating on species and populations in europe. populations dependent upon agricultural habitats in winter, spring and summer are among the most numerous and show greatest increases. the degree of agricultural exploitation correlates with population size and the populations of baltic barnacle geese, russian barnacle geese and greylag geese rank highest in this respect. protection from hunting does not add significantly to this food quality effect (table 3). only two species of geese are classified as being of vulnerable conservation status in europe and both have largely failed to exploit high intensity agricultural crops
How do bacteria and other microorganisms contribute to the earthâ€™s biomass?
bacteria and other microorganisms contribute greatly to the earth's biomass as they form the bottom of the food chain and orchestrate the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and flow of other nutrients through the ecosystem
What are the most well known microbial species?
the most well-known of these are perhaps e. coli and b. subtilis however even their wild relatives differ substantially from the highly subcultured laboratory representatives. in the study reported in this manuscript, samples were collected from the ecological laboratory called evolution canyon (ec) which is found in northern israel (fig.1
What is the organic matter content of soil?
soil is generally nutrient poor; its content of organic matter typically varies in concentration from 0.8 to 2.0
bacteria and other microorganisms contribute greatly to the earth's biomass as they form the bottom of the food chain and orchestrate the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and flow of other nutrients through the ecosystem. they are the 'dark matter' of life and may also hold the key to various global problems facing our society e.g. generating sources of nutrition and energy, developing powerful new pharmaceuticals, and cleaning up the environmental disorder. to date, there are a limited number of microbial species that have been studied in the laboratory. the most well-known of these are perhaps e. coli and b. subtilis however even their wild relatives differ substantially from the highly subcultured laboratory representatives. in the study reported in this manuscript, samples were collected from the ecological laboratory called evolution canyon (ec) which is found in northern israel (fig.1). the 'african' or southfacing slopes (as or sfs) in canyons north of the equator receive higher solar radiation than on the adjacent 'european' or northfacing slopes (es or nfs). this difference in solar radiation is associated with higher maximal and average temperatures and evapotranspirations on the more stressful 'african' slope. it causes dramatic physical and biotic interslope divergence, which may have originated several million years ago after mountain uplifts these canyons are extraordinary, natural, evolutionary laboratories. rocks, soils, and topography are similar on the opposite slopes (50-100 m apart at the bottom); microclimate remains the major interslope divergent factor. so far the intraspecific interslope divergence has been compared in 2500 species across various life forms from prokaryotes through eukaryotic lower and higher plants, fungi, and animals [2,3,4] unraveling the link between environmental stress and genome evolution in adaptation. this unique ecological situation facilitates the generation of theoretical testable and predictable models of biodiversity and genome evolution. soils are heterogeneous environments with various dynamic parameters in which any of the parameters can affect microbial growth and survival. soil is generally nutrient poor; its content of organic matter typically varies in concentration from 0.8 to 2.0%. hence, native soil bacteria constantly face nutrient deprivation. the root surface and the region immediately surrounding a root, constitutes an ecological niche in soil where nutrients (root exudates) are more readily available. certain bacteria have developed mechanisms to take advantage of this niche. the root
In the equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, the surface deglacial warming starts at?
in the equatorial pacific and tropical indian ocean, the surface deglacial warming starts at 17 and 17.5 ka
The simulated BLANK SSTs proceed with similar amplitude of warming as reconstructions
the simulated tropical ssts proceed with similar amplitude of warming as reconstructions
In all three BLANK hemisphere sites, the meltwater discharge from the Antarctic during MWP-1A caused a brief cooling episode at the onset of ACR, albeit much shorter than the reconstructions (SOM text 1).
in all three southern hemisphere sites, the meltwater discharge from the antarctic during mwp-1a caused a brief cooling episode at the onset of acr, albeit much shorter than the reconstructions (som text 1
our simulation also captures some major features of the deglacial climate evolution in the atlantic [liu et al., 2009], pacific and indian ocean. consistent with sea surface temperature (sst) reconstructions [calvo et al., 2007; pahnke and sachs, 2006], the deglacial warming of simulated sst starts around 19 ka in the south pacific (fig. 1h), which is synchronous with the deglacial warming in the antarctic. in the equatorial pacific and tropical indian ocean, the surface deglacial warming starts at 17 and 17.5 ka (fig. 1f and g), respectively, more than one thousand years later than the south pacific and antarctic site. the simulated tropical ssts proceed with similar amplitude of warming as reconstructions, and exhibit discernible cooling during the yd, confirming earlier findings that the signature of northern hemisphere millennial event not only extends into equator, but also reaches as far as 20 os in tropics [koutavas and sachs, 2008; bard et al., 1997]. in all three southern hemisphere sites, the meltwater discharge from the antarctic during mwp-1a caused a brief cooling episode at the onset of acr, albeit much shorter than the reconstructions (som text 1).
Why have effectivenesses of stratospheric aerosol climate engineering through emission of non - condensable vapors such as SO2 become limited?
because the slow conversion to h2so4 tends to produce aerosol particles that are too large
What is an alternate method for efficient formation of stratospheric aerosol?
aerosol is formed rapidly in the plume following injection of h2so4, a condensable vapor, from an aircraft
Why is the above method better than the SO2 method?
it may reduce some of the adverse effects of geoengineering such as radiative heating of the lower stratosphere
recent analysis suggests that the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol climate engineering through emission of non - condensable vapors such as so2 is limited because the slow conversion to h2so4 tends to produce aerosol particles that are too large; so2 injection may be so inefficient that it is difficult to counteract the radiative forcing due to a co2 doubling. here we describe an alternate method in which aerosol is formed rapidly in the plume following injection of h2so4, a condensable vapor, from an aircraft. this method gives better control of particle size and can produce larger radiative forcing with lower sulfur loadings than so2 injection. relative to so2 injection, it may reduce some of the adverse effects of geoengineering such as radiative heating of the lower stratosphere. this method does not, however, alter the fact that such a geoengineered radiative forcing can, at best, only partially compensate for the climate changes produced by co2. citation: pierce, j. r., d. k. weisenstein, p. heckendorn, t. peter, and d. w. keith (2010), efficient formation of stratospheric aerosol for climate engineering by emission of condensible vapor from aircraft, geophys. res. lett. 37 l18805, doi:10.1029/2010gl043975.
What is the similar situation?
the situation is similar if one examines other publications
What is economic literature?
the economic literature on poverty reduction and pro-poor growth typically focuses on a mix of macroeconomic and governance issues, while pointing out labor intensive agricultural productivity and employment strategies when it comes to the definition of sectoral priorities (klasen 2004, mosley and suleiman 2006
Explain about MDG progress?
the gef's (2005a) mdg progress report which covers only environmental policies, climate change related projects are cited less frequently than other gef activities, especially activities against land degradation a focus which is well in line with the priorities highlighted in the other studies mentioned above
the situation is similar if one examines other publications. the economic literature on poverty reduction and pro-poor growth typically focuses on a mix of macroeconomic and governance issues, while pointing out labor intensive agricultural productivity and employment strategies when it comes to the definition of sectoral priorities (klasen 2004, mosley and suleiman 2006). and even in the gef's (2005a) mdg progress report which covers only environmental policies, climate change related projects are cited less frequently than other gef activities, especially activities against land degradation a focus which is well in line with the priorities highlighted in the other studies mentioned above.
what are the requirements for Large-scale vaccination programmes in the developing world ?
large-scale vaccination programmes in the developing world would also require a strong public health infrastructure, knowledge, and fi nance and political will. low-cost and low-technological solutions, such as mosquito nets and water fi lters, provide eff ective public health systems for responding to health eff ects of climate change
what are the use of Satellite mapping and geographical information systems ?
satellite mapping and geographical information systems are useful analytical ways for local, regional, and national surveillance to project future health outcomes. for example, such systems for malaria in the developing world could allow health-care professionals to reallocate resources and prevent predicted future outbreaks
no eff ective vaccines exist for many climate-sensitive communicable diseases (eg, malaria, dengue fever, schistosomiasis, and leishmaniasis). the international community must promote research and development for vaccines that can be made accessible to the most vulnerable people. they must also fi nd a sustainable and ethical solution to the trade-related intellectual property rights (trips) agreement that allows developing countries to buy medical supplies without a substantial burden on their budgets. large-scale vaccination programmes in the developing world would also require a strong public health infrastructure, knowledge, and fi nance and political will. low-cost and low-technological solutions, such as mosquito nets and water fi lters, provide eff ective public health systems for responding to health eff ects of climate change. satellite mapping and geographical information systems are useful analytical ways for local, regional, and national surveillance to project future health outcomes. for example, such systems for malaria in the developing world could allow health-care professionals to reallocate resources and prevent predicted future outbreaks. however, to maximise the eff ect of this technology requires accessibility of fi nances, knowledge, and expertise in poor countries. existing or new technologies to reduce the eff ects of climate change on health cannot create secondary negative outcomes or contribute to further climate change. for example, air conditioning units can be introduced in homes, offi ces, and public buildings to reduce risk from heatstrokes. however, air conditioning units are highly energy ineffi cient and contribute to climate change, therefore producing an adverse secondary eff ect. new technology should aim to be carbon neutral, inexpensive, and easily manufactured worldwide.
Write  the uses of scenarios ?
scenarios are also used to provide information on projected changes in social and economic conditions
Write the main role of socio economic scenarios ?
the main role of socio-economic scenarios has been to provide gcms with information about future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions
scenarios are also used to provide information on projected changes in social and economic conditions. information concerning population and human development, economic conditions, land cover and land use, and energy consumption is included in socio-economic scenarios. to date, the main role of socio-economic scenarios has been to provide gcms with information about future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. future levels of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are clearly dependent on a wide range of factors, including population growth, economic activity and technology. the resulting range of possible emissions futures is captured through a suite of emissions scenarios. for its third assessment report,(44)the ipcc commissioned a special report on emissions scenarios (sres),(45)which describes about 40 different emissions scenarios. six of these scenarios have been identified as "marker scenarios"
What are the Recent developments in experimental techniques providing?
ecent developments in experimental techniques are providing large ensembles exploring a number of different sources of uncertainty in climate models. such experiments are increasing our understanding of the range of possible model behaviour in response to scenarios of increasing levels of atmospheric ghgs
How can the experimental techniques be interpreted?
for some predictive variables, they may be interpreted as providing a lower bound on the maximum range of uncertainty. we have described an analysis pathway by which such information may provide a contribution to present day decisions
What is an important aspect of the approach?
an important aspect of the approach is the concept of a non-discountable climate change envelope, a multi-variable form of a lower bound on the maximum range of uncertainty, which provides the relevant information from the global climate ensemble but helpfully limits the degree of further analysis necessary to extract information which may be relevant to some given decision
recent developments in experimental techniques are providing large ensembles exploring a number of different sources of uncertainty in climate models. such experiments are increasing our understanding of the range of possible model behaviour in response to scenarios of increasing levels of atmospheric ghgs. for some predictive variables, they may be interpreted as providing a lower bound on the maximum range of uncertainty. we have described an analysis pathway by which such information may provide a contribution to present day decisions. an important aspect of the approach is the concept of a non-discountable climate change envelope, a multi-variable form of a lower bound on the maximum range of uncertainty, which provides the relevant information from the global climate ensemble but helpfully limits the degree of further analysis necessary to extract information which may be relevant to some given decision. the relevance of the resulting information is primarily governed by the confidence we have in our climate models being able to simulate the climate system sufficiently well to provide information on the variables and regions of
What is the focus of this paper?
to examine whether and how particular global sustainability issues induce mnes to build green or change key fsas, this paper focuses on the issue of climate change
What is the most pressing environmental problem of our time?
to examine whether and how particular global sustainability issues induce mnes to build green or change key fsas, this paper focuses on the issue of climate change. over the past decade this global issue has evolved as the most pressing environmental problem of our time
What has the strategic impact of climate change been surrounded by?
over the years, the strategic impact of climate change has been surrounded with great uncertainty (brewer, 2005) (e.g. uncertainty about type, magnitude, and timing of the physical impact; about the best technological options to address the issue; as well as about the materialization of public policies). it has been a long time since the first deliberations on regulation of greenhouse gas emissions started, around fifteen years ago, until sufficient ratification and thus entry into force of the kyoto protocol, in early 2005
to examine whether and how particular global sustainability issues induce mnes to build green or change key fsas, this paper focuses on the issue of climate change. over the past decade this global issue has evolved as the most pressing environmental problem of our time. particularly due to temperature increases, it already affects physical and biological systems by changing ecosystems and causing extinction of species, and will increasingly have a social impact and adversely affect human health (ipcc, 2007). what is more, as a result of the economic costs and risks of extreme weather (romilly, 2007), climate change could have a severe impact on economic growth and development as well, if no action is taken to reduce emissions (stern, 2006). consequently, climate change affects mnes active in a wide variety of sectors and countries. it is also not a 'purely' environmental issue because it is closely linked to concerns about energy security due to dependence on fossil fuels and oil in particular, and to energy efficiency and management more generally. over the years, the strategic impact of climate change has been surrounded with great uncertainty (brewer, 2005) (e.g. uncertainty about type, magnitude, and timing of the physical impact; about the best technological options to address the issue; as well as about the materialization of public policies). it has been a long time since the first deliberations on regulation of greenhouse gas emissions started, around fifteen years ago, until sufficient ratification and thus entry into force of the kyoto protocol, in early 2005. the adoption of the kyoto protocol in 1997, however, already set some things in motion, such as an emissions trading scheme in the eu (the eu-ets which started per 1 january 2005), but for firms the overall policy context has been ambiguous with a range of national and international initiatives, some binding, others voluntary, and with a multitude of actors involved. increasing societal and regulatory attention to the issue has led mnes to consider how it increasing societal and regulatory attention to the issue has led mnes to consider how it affects markets in which they operate and has engendered a variety of responses, both market and non-market (political) in nature (kolk levy, 2004; kolk pinkse, 2005; 2007; levy kolk, 2002). mnes clearly show awareness of growing public concerns that have come to the fore in press coverage but also through popular books and movies on this 'inconvenient truth', as one of them was titled. however, due to the fact that mnes have been facing a complex international context of continuously changing climate policies, many tend to be cautious in taking steps in one particular direction. they clearly doubt the flexibility of climate-induced investments and fear to make
What has been promoted repeatedly as the most appropriate form of resource management under highly uncertain environmental, social, and policy conditions?
adaptive assessment and management
What sectors would how to implement adaptive management be helpful and relevant?
habitat conservation, fisheries, marine protected area management, forestry
there is a substantial literature on adaptive assessment and management and on all manner of social learning (e.g., gregory, failing, higgins, 2006; hennessey, 1994; pulwarty melis, 2001; walters, 1986 ). while the former has been promoted repeatedly as the most appropriate form of resource management under highly uncertain environmental, social, and policy conditions, the approach has run into significant hurdles in practice (e.g., mclain lee, 1996; van der brugge van raak, 2007 ). continued dedication to on-the-ground, experimental research with mechanisms facilitating deliberate learning on how to implement adaptive management would be helpful and relevant in several natural resource sectors (e.g., habitat conservation, fisheries, marine protected area management, forestry) nrc, 2009b ). scenario-based experimentation and learning could also yield important insights. the bigger question, however, could be how organizations, individual decisionmakers, and entire societies can be encouraged and enabled to learn and-against the all-too-common tendency to prefer familiarity, well-established rules, and a routine-based daily life-to learn faster and better in the face of rapidly changing conditions. important research questions remain to be answered and tested empirically on: the incentives and disincentives for learning, knowledge networks, and impediments to knowledge flow relevant for adaptation decisions; the importance of leaders; and processes of diffusion of adaptation innovations (technologies and practices).
which data sets were used to calculate anomalies of compound precipitation?
we compute composite precipitation anomalies using the 21-year cmap monthly data set (xie and arkin, 1996) over the region (90*w-60*e; 20*n-70*n) extending from the east coast of the u.s
what are the standards like during the high index period?
during high index periods, the pattern is nearly reversed, but departures from strict linearity can be seen
The axis of increased precipitation during the low index months extends to where?
the enhanced precipitation axis during low index months extends across the northern mediterranean nearly to the caspian sea with an enhanced secondary maximum along the west coast of spain and portugal and over turkey
here we describe more fully the influence of the nao on interannual to decadal precipitation variability in the middle east. we compute composite precipitation anomalies using the 21-year cmap monthly data set (xie and arkin, 1996) over the region (90*w-60*e; 20*n-70*n) extending from the east coast of the u.s. to the middle east for months with positive and negative values of the nao index for the period january 1979 through december 1998 (figure 2). high and low index values were defined as the highest and lowest quartile in the 20-year record for each month. composite anomalies averaged over the months djfm, conventionally the period when the nao is most active and well defined, were then computed. the accepted signature of the nao, with enhanced precipitation in western europe during high index periods, and in the eastern mediterranean during low index periods, is evident (cullen and demenocal, 2000a; eshel and farrell, 2000). however, this picture provides additional detail, much of it not visible in earlier studies based solely on station observations (dai et al., 1997). an axis of enhanced monthly wintertime precipitation is seen during low index periods extending from the southeastern u.s. across the atlantic to the iberian peninsula, with negative anomalies approximately parallel to the north and south. during high index periods, the pattern is nearly reversed, but departures from strict linearity can be seen. the enhanced precipitation axis during low index months extends across the northern mediterranean nearly to the caspian sea with an enhanced secondary maximum along the west coast of spain and portugal and over turkey. a relationship between the eastern mediterranean and atlantic sector is to be expected because the nao regulates atlantic heat and moisture fluxes into the mediterranean region (turkes, 1996a,b). since these winter cyclones are the dominant source of middle eastern rainfall and river runoff, nao-related changes in atlantic westerly heat/moisture transport and atlantic/mediterranean sst's can be expected to influence middle eastern climate.
Write about the AGF?
as we have seen, agf has many potential benefits, but it may also have negative consequences, which we outline in the following subsections
What are the greatest risk associated with AGF?
the greatest genetic risk associated with agf is outbreeding depression, but agf may also disrupt local adaptation to environmental factors other than those climatic factors taken into consideration when designing a strategy
What are the three primary causes of ourbreeding depression?
there are three primary causes of outbreeding depression: chromosomal incompatibilities, epistatic interactions between diverged loci, and local adaptation losses resulting from the of locally maladapted alleles
as we have seen, agf has many potential benefits, but it may also have negative consequences, which we outline in the following subsections. the greatest genetic risk associated with agf is outbreeding depression, but agf may also disrupt local adaptation to environmental factors other than those climatic factors taken into consideration when designing a strategy. outbreeding depression is a reduction in offspring fitness relative to parental types following hybridization between populations (edmands 2007, frankham et al. 2011). there are three primary causes of outbreeding depression: chromosomal incompatibilities, epistatic interactions between diverged loci, and local adaptation losses resulting from the of locally maladapted alleles. these mechanisms of outbreeding depression have markedly different implications for agf, which we discuss below. we also address the potential deleterious consequences
What elements are critical to crop yields?
more generally, scientific models cannot reliably predict local changes in average temperature, temperature variability, and precipitation, all of which are critical to crop yields
What assumptions are the baseline for impact assessment decades from now highly sensitive to?
the baseline for impact assessment decades from now is highly sensitive to assumptions about regional development (including the ability to adapt to climate change), future technological change (e.g., the development of climateand flood-resistant crops), and other policies (e.g., attempts to eradicate malaria or integrate global food markets
What is most of the impact assessment literature based on?
most of the impact assessment literature is based on extrapolations from u.s. studies--country-specific studies that account for local factors (e.g., the ability to adapt farm practices to changing climate) have only recently begun to emerge
more generally, scientific models cannot reliably predict local changes in average temperature, temperature variability, and precipitation, all of which are critical to crop yields. the baseline for impact assessment decades from now is highly sensitive to assumptions about regional development (including the ability to adapt to climate change), future technological change (e.g., the development of climateand flood-resistant crops), and other policies (e.g., attempts to eradicate malaria or integrate global food markets). controversies surround the valuing of nonmarket effects (e.g., the value of mortality in poor countries, or how much people in wealthy countries value ecosystem preservation in poor countries). at best there is little evidence on additional risks, such as extreme local climate change (e.g., from shifting monsoons and deserts), large sea level rises that could occur if the west antarctic ice sheets melt, and broader health effects (e.g., malnutrition from food shortages, the net effects of milder winters and hotter summers, and diarrhea if droughts reduce safe drinking water supplies). most of the impact assessment literature is based on extrapolations from u.s. studies--country-specific studies that account for local factors (e.g., the ability to adapt farm practices to changing climate) have only recently begun to emerge. finally, worldwide results mask huge disparities in regional burdens, and there is disagreement on how to aggregate impacts across regions with very different per capita income.15
What is the first derivative of the total flux equation equal to?
equal to zero
What is the second derivative greater than?
greater than zero
The limiting flux corresponds to?
the minimum at the curve gt versus c
a (10.15) where: c suspended solids concentration in the sludge (kg/m3) vo coefficient, expressing the zone settling velocity at a concentration c 0 (m/h) k sedimentation coefficient (m3/kg) qu sludge underflow (m3/h) a surface area of the sedimentation tanks (m2). the limiting flux corresponds to the minimum at the curve gt versus c. the minimum can be obtained, for a given value of qu/a, through the calculation of the limiting concentration cl, such that the first derivative of the total flux equation gt (equation 10.13) is equal to zero, and the second derivative is greater than zero, to configure a minimum. the respective equations are:
How many people died in 2008 on Myanmar?
in 2008 alone, there were 140,848 deaths from storms although most of these were from the impact of cyclone nargis on myanmar (em-dat
What gives estimates for the mortality and economic damage?
table 6.5 gives estimates for the mortality and economic damage done by the 'large' disasters that are recorded in international disaster statistics
How much damage was caused by windstorms and floods?
the figures included in table 6.5 show that floods and windstorms caused damage worth over $500 billion
even if the investments needed to remove the infrastructure deficits, plus the needed adjustments for climate-change risks, are made, this does not prevent all climate-change costs. table 6.5 gives estimates for the mortality and economic damage done by the 'large' disasters that are recorded in international disaster statistics. these are known to understate the impact of disasters, both through the disasters that they do not record and because of the very large number of disasters that do not meet the official criteria for inclusion as a disaster.1 nevertheless, the figures included in table 6.5 show that floods and windstorms caused damage worth over $500 billion and over 150,000 deaths in one decade. they also affected over 1.6 billion people. in 2008 alone, there were 140,848 deaths from storms although most of these were from the impact of cyclone nargis on myanmar (em-dat). these are indications of the cost of not having the infrastructure in place to prevent damage and loss of life from windstorms and floods. this is not to claim that this is a climate-change cost - but it is an indication of the costs that have not been prevented from extreme-weather events whose frequency and/or intensity climate change is likely to increase. note too the mortality and number of people affected by avalanches and landslides and by extreme temperatures in table 6.5; these are also extreme events to which climate change will contribute.
Who employed the hybrid approach?
a hybrid approach was employed by bennion and co-workers (bennion et al ., 2012
How was a multivariate smoother used?
the sample scores on the first two principal components were then used, via a multivariate smoother, to fit a response surface in the ordination space that explained variance in the instrumental data matched to the sediment core samples
What did Bennion and co-workers utilise to extract the main patterns of variation in the diatom species composition of a core from Loch Leven.
a hybrid approach was employed by bennion and co-workers (bennion et al ., 2012), who utilised unconstrained ordination to extract the main patterns of variation in the diatom species composition of a core from loch leven
a hybrid approach was employed by bennion and co-workers (bennion et al ., 2012), who utilised unconstrained ordination to extract the main patterns of variation in the diatom species composition of a core from loch leven. the sample scores on the first two principal components were then used, via a multivariate smoother, to fit a response surface in the ordination space that explained variance in the instrumental data matched to the sediment core samples. this approach allowed for non-linear relationships between the main nutrient and climate drivers, although it is limited to situations where the main patterns of change in the species data are related to the measured instrumental variables; where this is not the case, careful consideration of later unconstrained ordination axes will be required.
What are the degrees of models and stations?
the ensemble median bias across models and stations (i.e. the median of all the models' biases) is 0.3 deg c. the overall spatial pattern of biases in the 95th percentile for t2max is similar to that of the median bias in t2max (not shown
What is the sample bias probability?
a difference, however, is that the warm bias in the southeast is stronger and that it extends further to the north in eastern europe/russia in the 95th percentile. the fact that model biases affect large parts of the probability distribution is shown in figure 5a where regional biases are shown for nine different percentiles
Cold pro yathu for PROMES and CLM?
in eastern europe the positive bias for high percentiles is large, whereas it is small or negative for low percentiles. in several regions, the spread among the rcms is larger at the 95th and 99th percentile as compared to the median and low percentiles. the cold bias for promes and clm in some regions, as noticed at the 95th
the ensemble median bias across models and stations (i.e. the median of all the models' biases) is 0.3 deg c. the overall spatial pattern of biases in the 95th percentile for t2max is similar to that of the median bias in t2max (not shown). a difference, however, is that the warm bias in the southeast is stronger and that it extends further to the north in eastern europe/russia in the 95th percentile. the fact that model biases affect large parts of the probability distribution is shown in figure 5a where regional biases are shown for nine different percentiles. in eastern europe the positive bias for high percentiles is large, whereas it is small or negative for low percentiles. in several regions, the spread among the rcms is larger at the 95th and 99th percentile as compared to the median and low percentiles. the cold bias for promes and clm in some regions, as noticed at the 95th
How conclusive is evidence establishing directional links and mechanisms between SES, school climate, and academic performance?
scientific evidence establishing directional links and mechanisms between ses, school climate, and academic performance is inconclusive
Back to which year are studies examined?
this comprehensive review of studies dating back to the year 2000 examined 
Was a postive or negative climate found to mitigate the negative contribution of weak SES background on academic achievement?
positive climate was found to mitigate the negative contribution of weak ses background on academic achievement
educational researchers and practitioners assert that supportive school and classroom climates can positively influence the academic outcomes of students, thus potentially reducing academic achievement gaps between students and schools of different socioeconomic status (ses) backgrounds. nonetheless, scientific evidence establishing directional links and mechanisms between ses, school climate, and academic performance is inconclusive. this comprehensive review of studies dating back to the year 2000 examined whether a positive climate can successfully disrupt the associations between low ses and poor academic achievement. positive climate was found to mitigate the negative contribution of weak ses background on academic achievement; however, most studies do not provide a basis for deducing a directional influence and causal relations. additional research is encouraged to establish the nature of impact positive climate has on academic achievement and a multifaceted body of knowledge regarding the multilevel climate dimensions related to academic achievement.
What could lead to reduction in fuels which will result in lower intensity fires?
eventually, greater fire frequency could lead to a reduction in fuels, resulting in lower intensity fires and a finer-scale patch mosaic
What are the two types of species mentioned in the passage?
if fire-susceptible species are not able to re-seed or re-establish themselves into burned areas because of harsh condi tions for seedling establishment or competition from other species, these species may be lost from the site. therefore, increased fire frequency will likely favor more fire-adapted species via direct mortality and lack of regeneration of fire-susceptible species
if fire-susceptible species are not able to re-seed or re-establish themselves into burned areas because of harsh condi tions for seedling establishment or competition from other species, these species may be lost from the site. therefore, increased fire frequency will likely favor more fire-adapted species via direct mortality and lack of regeneration of fire-susceptible species. in addition, expected changes in fire frequency and extent will likely create more opportunities for establishment of invasive species uoyce et ai., 2008). increased fire activity may be greater where fires have been limited by climatic conditions, rather than by fuels that is, in forests with high to moderate precipitation and either highor mixed-severity fire regimes. this may lead to profound changes in forest structure and composition of these systems (table 1 ). how ever, in the arid and semiarid forests where fires were suppressed, increased fire activity may return these systems to historic condi tions. large-scale disturbances also influence the spatial mosaic of for est patches and landscape structure (t able 1). initially, new fire regimes will probably lead to larger burn patches, and greater homogenization of the landscape, particularly in areas character ized by lowand mixed-severity fire regimes. although young forests with continuous fuels are particularly vulnerable to mor tality, all successional stages are susceptible to high-severity fires. thus, an increase in the frequency and severity of fires may increase the area of early seral forests, decrease the area of old forest patches, and decrease their connectivity (baker, 1995; mckenzie et ai., 2004 ). large snags and downed wood may be lost, partic ularly in fire exclusion areas where crown fire hazards are high. even if these stands are dominated by fire-adapted species, the greater amount and continuity of fuels will probably lead to greater mortality and likelihood of stand replacement if they burn. it may take several decades before the landscape adjusts to these new fire regimes (baker, 1995). eventually, greater fire frequency could lead to a reduction in fuels, resulting in lower intensity fires and a finer-scale patch mosaic.
Over the last century, global mean surface temperature has risen how much?
over the last century, global mean surface temperature has risen by about 0.6oc
Have all regions experienced comparable warming?
all regions of the world have not warmed by the same amount; certain areas have warmed much more than others, and some comparatively small areas have even experienced cooling
Which has increased more, daytime or night-time temperatures?
night-time minimum temperatures have increased by about twice as much as daytime maximum temperatures.(5
over the last century, global mean surface temperature has risen by about 0.6oc (figure 1; reference 5). although not unprecedented, this rate of warming is likely to have been the greatest of any century in the last thousand years.(5)all regions of the world have not warmed by the same amount; certain areas have warmed much more than others, and some comparatively small areas have even experienced cooling. the timing of warming has also been variable. most of the warming occurred over two distinct time periods of the 20thcentury (figure 1a; reference 5); there have been seasonal differences in the amount of warming observed see reference 6 for canadian data); and night-time minimum temperatures have increased by about twice as much as daytime maximum temperatures.(5)
What is sludge made up of?
the sludge accumulated in the bottom of the pond is a result of the suspended solids from the influent, including sand, plus settled microorganisms (bacteria and algae
What is the average sludge thickness?
present average sludge thickness values around 1 to 3 cm year
How do we prepare the ponds?
good preliminary treatment of the wastewater
the sludge accumulated in the bottom of the pond is a result of the suspended solids from the influent, including sand, plus settled microorganisms (bacteria and algae). the organic fraction of the sludge is digested anaerobically, being transformed into gases. hence, the accumulated volume is lower than the settled volume. the average sludge accumulation rate in facultative ponds is in the order of only 0.03 to 0.08 m3/ inhab.year (arceivala, 1981). silva (1993) and gon,calves (1999) present average sludge thickness values around 1 to 3 cm year. because of this low accumulation rate, the occupation of the pond volume is very slow. unless the pond receives a very high load, the sludge will accumulate for several years without the need for its removal. from the accumulated sludge, only a small fraction is represented by grit. in spite of this, it can be necessary to remove the accumulated grit, since it tends to concentrate close to the inlet and in the first cell of a system in series. this emphasises the need for good preliminary treatment of the wastewater. 534 stabilisation ponds
What does the DICE model calculate?
dice calculates the paths of capital investment and ghg reductions that maximize a social welfare function, where the social welfare function is the discounted sum of population-weighted utilities of per capita consumption
Why were these parameters chosen?
these parameters were chosen to be consistent with market interest rates and savings rates
What time discount rate does this model use?
the model uses a time discount rate of 1.5 percent per year along with a consumption elasticity of 2
the analytical structure of the dice model is identical to that in the review. dice calculates the paths of capital investment and ghg reductions that maximize a social welfare function, where the social welfare function is the discounted sum of population-weighted utilities of per capita consumption. for this analysis, i have used the dice-2007.v2 model. this is a completely revised version of the earlier dice and rice models incorporating the latest available data, economics, and science.29 the model uses a time discount rate of 1.5 percent per year along with a consumption elasticity of 2. these parameters were chosen to be consistent with market interest rates and savings rates.
The cost of climate policy depend on what factors?
the costs of climate policy depend heavily on how technology and its benefits over time are characterized
What are the social benefits of using new energy other than reducing the consumer of fossil-fuel?
policy assessments typically include savings on energy bills and lower compliance costs, such as the benefits of new energy technologies, but overlook the potential for "non-energy" benefits, such as lower maintenance costs, increased production yields, safer work conditions, positive spill-over effects, and economies of scale and scope
The early growth literature proposed the notion of the "Golden Rule" steady state growth path . In this simple model with the savings rate as the only policy variable, what is the path of optimal growth among all sustainable growth paths? Can you explain what is 'Sustainable growth'?
optimal growth is the path yielding the highest level of consumption per capita among all sustainable growth paths. sustainable growth, in this context, is a path that does not sacrifice the consumption of future generations by consuming society's capital (including natural capital) for the benefit of the present generation. in such a model, the market rate of interest is equal to the rate of growth of consumption
there are more satisfying ways of mapping cost-effective technologies into climate models that yield different impacts. the costs of climate policy depend heavily on how technology and its benefits over time are characterized (worrell et al. 2003 ). for example, krause et al. 2002 2003 include the efficiency-improving possibilities documented in the "5-lab study" (interlaboratory working group 2000 to arrive at least-cost estimates of the economic costs of emissions reduction. policy assessments typically include savings on energy bills and lower compliance costs, such as the benefits of new energy technologies, but overlook the potential for "non-energy" benefits, such as lower maintenance costs, increased production yields, safer work conditions, positive spill-over effects, and economies of scale and scope. these benefits increase the return on energy-related investments; if recognized, firms and consumers may become more willing to adopt or invest in them (finman and laitner 2001 ). these benefits may, in some cases, exceed the associated energy bill savings (worrell et al. 2003 ). the productivity-enhancing effects of investing in these technologies can help offset any drag on the economy imposed by higher fossil-fuel prices. new technologies can stimulate new investment, save consumers money, stimulate productive research and development with spill-over benefits for other sectors and positive multiplier effects, and help to reduce energy imports and increase technology exports. massive public investment in military technology since world war ii led to the widespread adoption of jet aircraft, semi-conductors, and the internet by the private sector and is partly responsible for the technological advantage the us holds globally. in the early 1980s, us companies led the world in wind energy technologies. today, we import those technologies (goodstein 2007 ). as the rest of the world moves forward with climate policy, the us risks losing its technological advantage unless it charts (and funds) a careful and deliberate new technology path. 5 insurance, precaution, and the contribution of climate economics in the three preceding sections, we argued that most iams rely on an analytical framework that privileges immediate, individual consumption over future-oriented concerns; that the benefits, or avoided damages, from climate mitigation are both unpredictable in detail and intrinsically non-monetizable; and that the conventional economic view of technology misrepresents the dynamic, socially determined nature of technical change. not much is left, therefore, of the standard economic approach and its ambitions to perform a complete cost-benefit analysis of climate policy options. in light of these criticisms, how should we think about policy options and the economics of climate change? it should be emphasized that the optimal control approach to climate policy embodied in eq. 1 above is not the only one proposed in the literature. for example, the early growth literature proposed the notion of the "golden rule" steady state growth path (solow 1970 ). in this simple model with the savings rate as the only policy variable, optimal growth is the path yielding the highest level of consumption per capita among all sustainable growth paths. sustainable growth, in this context, is a path that does not sacrifice the consumption of future generations by consuming society's capital (including natural capital) for the benefit of the present generation. in such a model, the market rate of interest is equal to the rate of growth of consumption.
What will happen to native species when they shift environments?
because climate change is expected to shift native species out of the conditions to which they are adapted, competitive resistance from native species may lessen (byers 2002
What did an analysis of historical invasions in North America conclude?
an analysis of historical invasions in north america suggests that the risk of causing new invasions by assisted migration may be relatively small
How will tolerant species cope arriving in a new climate?
arriving species that can tolerate the climate may have a greater chance of overcoming biotic constraints on their growth and establish persistent populations under climate change
mclachlan et al. 2007). this "assisted migration" is a drastic measure aimed to address a catastrophic problem, but assisted species could become invasive and negatively affect taxa native to the introduced region. an analysis of historical invasions in north america suggests that the risk of causing new invasions by assisted migration may be relatively small, however (mueller hellmann 2008 [this issue]). altered climatic constraints on invasive species climate change can lead to the establishment of new invasive species via 3 mechanisms. first, species currently unable to persist in a location because of climatic constraints may be increasingly able to survive and colonize that area (fig. 1; tables 1 2). for example, lee and chown (2007) show that mytilus galloprovincialis an invasive mussel species in south africa, has traveled to antarctica inside storage chests of a support ship for a scientific expedition. presumably, this species has not yet taken hold in antarctica because temperatures are too severe for successful establishment, but warming could increase the probability of establishment. a similar situation exists for plants and animals kept by humans. some of these species inevitably escape (mack 2000) but do not establish because of an unsuitable climate. second, arriving species that can tolerate the climate may have a greater chance of overcoming biotic constraints on their growth and establish persistent populations under climate change. because climate change is expected to shift native species out of the conditions to which they are adapted, competitive resistance from native species may lessen (byers 2002). third, established non-native species could become invasive if climate change increases their competitive ability or rate of spread. the "lag phase" in invasions, in
What developments either in combination with climate change and sea level or on its selves, result in (earlier) ATPs?
socioeconomic developments
When is adaptation defined and used?
if the impact is such that policy objectives are not achieved, adaptation measures are defined to overcome this problem
Where can you find the answer to 'How much climate change and sea level rise can the current strategy cope with?'
the analysis starts at the other end of the cause-effect chain
other socioeconomic developments may, either in combination with climate change and sea level or on its selves, result in (earlier) atps. the atp approach differs from the classical top-down approach and contains elements from a vulnerable bottom-up approach. in the classical topdown approach to climate adaptation (see figure 1; left panel), the underlying question is: 'what if climate changes or sea level rises according to a particular scenario?' this is followed by analyzing the causeeffect chain from pressures to impact (the psir concept31). if the impact is such that policy objectives are not achieved, adaptation measures are defined to overcome this problem. then the chain is analyzed again, answering the question: 'what if this particular scenario becomes reality and we implement measure x, are the objectives achieved then?' in the atp (bottom-up) approach (see figure 1; right panel) the underlying question is: 'how much climate change and sea level rise can the current strategy cope with?', and the analysis starts at the other end of the cause-effect chain. policy objectives for
Is adaptation the only part to look at when it comes to the overall repsone to climate change?
adaptation is only one part of the overall response to (and therefore the costs of) climate change
How many elements does the total burden of climate change have?
the total burden of climate change consists of three elements
What is one of these elements?
the costs of mitigation (reducing the extent of climate change), the costs of adaptation (reducing the impact of change), and the residual impacts that can be neither mitigated nor adapted to
to understand the costs of adaptation one has to look at adaptation in its larger context. adaptation is only one part of the overall response to (and therefore the costs of) climate change. the total burden of climate change consists of three elements: the costs of mitigation (reducing the extent of climate change), the costs of adaptation (reducing the impact of change), and the residual impacts that can be neither mitigated nor adapted to. for example, society may seek to limit the overall temperature increase to 2degc (mitigation), invest in coastal protection to limit the negative impacts of 2degc warming (adaptation) and accept the loss of certain coastlines because they cannot be defended at reasonable cost (residual damage). in the simplest possible economic framework, society would fine-tune global mitigation and adaptation efforts until the combined (opportunity) costs of mitigation, adaptation and residual damage are minimised.1
What is the King Billy Pine?
king billy pine is a long-lived paleo-endemic tree
At what altitude does the King Billy Pine grow?
600 m to 1100 m
When is the Ptunarra Brown Butterfly active?
three to four weeks in late february to april
we used two contrasting species as case studies to examine the issues related to variable selection and gcms that commonly arise when modelling future species distributions for applied conservation: the king billy pine athrotaxis selaginoides) and the ptunarra brown butterfly oreixenica ptunarra ). king billy pine is a long-lived paleo-endemic tree that grows at altitudes of 600 m to 1100 m. in contrast, the ptunarra brown butterfly is a short-lived species, which is active for three to four weeks in late february to april, at altitudes from 200 m to 1200 m. these species are endemic to tasmania, australia, and have been listed as endangered under the environment protection and biodiversity conservation act 1999. we conducted sdm experiments to examine the range in projected distribution due to (a) the three common approaches to variable selection identified in the review and (b) the three different ways of accounting for the range in sdm results from using multiple gcms and emissions scenarios.
What constitutes a resilient grid?
a grid that can be turned on and off in parts, in extremis, and in a managed order is a resilient grid
What energy sources does a cascading grid use?
a cascading grid will source energies of different quality within a region and use them optimally to fulfil required functions with minimal co 2 emissions or fossil fuel use
How long can micro-grids be taken off-line for?
some grids, e.g. homes, could be sacrificed more often, while other buildings, e.g. hospitals, might be last-resort blackouts
cascading grid disaggregating the grid into a jigsaw puzzle of smaller, integrated grids that can be taken onand off-line as required and be left off-line during local grid failures. agreements could be drawn up as to how long a micro-grid can be sacrificed during outages. some grids, e.g. homes, could be sacrificed more often, while other buildings, e.g. hospitals, might be last-resort blackouts. a grid that can be turned on and off in parts, in extremis, and in a managed order is a resilient grid. a cascading grid will source energies of different quality within a region and use them optimally to fulfil required functions with minimal co 2 emissions or fossil fuel use. 42 <s121>*knowledge grid reopen the electricity research facilities at capenhurst and spend large amounts of government money on building knowledge of how to design, construct, operate and manage a cascading grid. money saved on not rebuilding larger power lines could be spent here. <s121>*fair grid put an equal proportion of people representing small energy and renewable energy industries onto the boards of energy quangos and regulatory bodies to those who are now
The CPST can be used as what?
the cpst can be used as a checklist to review projects on current national forest schedule of project actions lists
Climate change is considered to be what?
climate change is considered to be a higher order process, essentially a moving stage on which other ecological dynamics (fire, succession, etc.) occur (jackson 1997
Consultation can range from what to what?
consultation can range from one-time discussion with local scientists to interaction with regional science advisory boards (see box 7
most existing and planned project plans and existing or developing forest plans have limited consideration of climate change. some type of review of those efforts would be beneficial in terms of climate change effects and adaptation options. the cpst can be used as a checklist to review projects on current national forest schedule of project actions lists. using the question-answer format to elicit discus sion about potential interaction of climate, one can determine if a warmer climate will affect a project. if so, then the project is identified as needing further attention, and those aspects most likely influenced by climate are highlighted for further consideration. climatic variability and other natural processes (e.g., fire, floods, insect out breaks) are included in evaluations of ecological variability in the context of ecosys tem management (salwasser and pfister 1994, usda fs 1995). climate change is considered to be a higher order process, essentially a moving stage on which other ecological dynamics (fire, succession, etc.) occur (jackson 1997). consultation with a scientific technical committee may be needed to address situations in which the potential effects of climate change are complex, long term, or highly uncertain. consultation can range from one-time discussion with local scientists to interaction with regional science advisory boards (see box 7). comprehensive evaluations are often necessary for large-scale and long-term projects. existing protocols, such as those developed for watershed assessment (furniss et. al. 2010, heathcote 1998, hornbeck and swank 1992) and ecoregional assessments (johnson et al. 1999), sometimes address the role of climate, although they may need to be modified for emphasis on climate effects. these assessments are typically conducted by scientific specialists, but are more effective if resource managers are involved to assist with local information and priorities. coordination within resource areas (e.g., headwater vs. downstream aquatic systems in a large watershed) and across resource areas (e.g., fuels management and wildlife management) will ensure that multiple perspectives are captured at the start of the adaptation process. the nature of the review process evolves as increasing knowledge about climate change informs scientists and managers. more projects and plans can be developed with climate change considerations included at the start. as indicated by forest ser vice guidance on nepa analysis, "the effects of climate change on natural resource management are best considered when developing a proposal before initiating nepa. in this way, it is efficient to integrate climate change considerations together with the agency mission objectives" (usda fs 2009b). tools such as the cpst may be replaced by processes identified in box 15 to review background material on climate change pertinent to national forest plans and projects.
What are circulation models?
circulation models, or aogcms (e.g. washington and parkinson, 1986). these models include descriptions of the global atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, land surface processes and simple chemistry processes
What are the effects of anthropogenic?
aogcms explicitly account for the effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings
What is the hypothesis of socio economical and technological?
torical period (1860 to present). at the end of the historical period, the anthropogenic forcing agents are allowed to change as a result of given "emission scenarios." these are hypothesized future trends in emissions of ghg and aerosols (or aerosol precursors) based on hypotheses of future socio-economical and technological development (ipcc, 2000). the ghg emission scenarios are translated into ghg concentrations using biogeochemical cycle and chemistry models and these concentrations are then used as input to the aogcm for the climate change simulation. some models take 242 filippo giorgi
circulation models, or aogcms (e.g. washington and parkinson, 1986). these models include descriptions of the global atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, land surface processes and simple chemistry processes. also, aogcms explicitly account for the effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings. typically, a climate change simulation consists of a number of steps, as depicted in figure 1. in this figure global temperature is taken as a measure of climate, but other variables such as precipitation or sea level could be used as well. first, the aogcm is integrated for a long period of time (multi-centennial) to achieve an equilibrium across its fast and slow varying components. in these integrations the forcing agents (e.g. the concentration of ghg) are set at pre-industrial values or at values characteristic of the year 1860 (around the beginning of the modern industrial era). this simulation is generally referred to as "control" run and provides the baseline to evaluate the performance of the model in simulating the basic state of the global climate system. at some point within the control run, which is typically the nominal year 1860, anthropogenic and natural forcing agents are allowed to change following reconstructions of these changes during the historical period (1860 to present). at the end of the historical period, the anthropogenic forcing agents are allowed to change as a result of given "emission scenarios." these are hypothesized future trends in emissions of ghg and aerosols (or aerosol precursors) based on hypotheses of future socio-economical and technological development (ipcc, 2000). the ghg emission scenarios are translated into ghg concentrations using biogeochemical cycle and chemistry models and these concentrations are then used as input to the aogcm for the climate change simulation. some models take 242 filippo giorgi
How many categories of model structures are there?
all five categories
Are general equilibrium models simple?
general equilibrium models can be extremely complex
What occurs when models are overly complex?
both transparency and the plausibility of final results are compromised
the different types of model structures provide results that inform climate and development policy in very different ways. all five categories have strengths and weaknesses. many of the bestknown iams attempt to find the 'optimal' climate policy, one that maximizes long-term human welfare. this calculation depends on several unknowable or controversial quantities, including the numerical measurement of human welfare, the physical magnitude and monetary value of all current and anticipated climate damages, and the relative worth of future versus present benefits. general equilibrium models can be extremely complex, combining very detailed climate models with intricate models of the economy; yet despite their detail, general equilibrium models' reliance on decreasing returns is a serious limitation to their usefulness in modelling endogenous technological change. when models are overly complex, both transparency and the plausibility of final results are compromised (this latter point is discussed in more
What does this article present?
the paper presents some new developments implemented in the global atmospheric model cam with the objectives to improve the representation of aerosols in regions that are usually poorly represented in models, including the upper troposphere and the arctic
What does this article present?
the cam model is bench-marked against a model version that includes a more detailed representation of cloud-aerosol interactions through a sub-grid scheme and against observations
Which of the following enhances sample comparison against observations?
the inclusion of a new unified treatment of vertical aerosol transport and convection results in an improvement of the model comparison against observations. the paper is overall clear and well written and is very well suitable for gmd as it c159
the paper presents some new developments implemented in the global atmospheric model cam with the objectives to improve the representation of aerosols in regions that are usually poorly represented in models, including the upper troposphere and the arctic. the cam model is bench-marked against a model version that includes a more detailed representation of cloud-aerosol interactions through a sub-grid scheme and against observations. the inclusion of a new unified treatment of vertical aerosol transport and convection results in an improvement of the model comparison against observations. the paper is overall clear and well written and is very well suitable for gmd as it c159
What are the results in this study support?
the results in this study support previous findings that the global lower stratosphere has cooled substantially since 1979 and that both the nh and sh polar stratospheres have cooled more than the global average during the spring season (wmo 2003, chapters 3.1 and 4.4
What does the result reveal the novel findings?
the results also reveal the following novel findings: 1) in the annual mean, the tropical stratosphere is cooling at a substantial rate and; 2) the seasonally varying trends in the polar stratosphere are associated with similarly signed trends in the troposphere in the sh but not in the nh
Is the cooling of the tropical stratosphere an artifact of the radiosonde data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis?
as discussed in section 3, both the radiosonde data
the results in this study support previous findings that the global lower stratosphere has cooled substantially since 1979 and that both the nh and sh polar stratospheres have cooled more than the global average during the spring season (wmo 2003, chapters 3.1 and 4.4). however, the results also reveal the following novel findings: 1) in the annual mean, the tropical stratosphere is cooling at a substantial rate and; 2) the seasonally varying trends in the polar stratosphere are associated with similarly signed trends in the troposphere in the sh but not in the nh. the observed structure in the annual-mean stratospheric temperature trends is particularly surprising since it contradicts the conclusion reached in wmo (2003) that only the extratropical stratosphere is cooling at a significant rate. is the cooling of the tropical stratosphere an artifact of the radiosonde data and the ncep-ncar reanalysis? as discussed in section 3, both the radiosonde data
What are some of the main drivers of deforestation?
livestock production is also an important driver of deforestation and associated carbon dioxide (co2) emissions - both directly, as forests are cut down to provide pasture or are degraded through animal grazing, and indirectly, as rising demand for animal feed drives the expansion of cropland into forests
What animal products from livestock releases the mosts emissions?
beef and dairy are the most emissions-intensive livestock products and are responsible for the most emissions, accounting for 65 per cent of the total ghgs emitted by livestock
What happens in countries with high amounts of deforestation for pasture production and where beef production is extensive?
the emissions intensity of meat products, particularly beef, increases significantly
livestock production is also an important driver of deforestation and associated carbon dioxide (co2) emissions - both directly, as forests are cut down to provide pasture or are degraded through animal grazing, and indirectly, as rising demand for animal feed drives the expansion of cropland into forests. beef and dairy are the most emissions-intensive livestock products and are responsible for the most emissions, accounting for 65 per cent of the total ghgs emitted by livestock.7 average global estimates suggest that, per unit of protein, ghg emissions from beef production are around 150 times those of soy products, by volume, and even the least emissions-intensive meat products - pork and chicken - produce 20-25 times more ghgs.8 while beef produces more ghgs per unit, the scale and growth rate of pork and poultry production mean that their emissions are not exempt from concern. however, there are huge variances at farm level and at national and regional levels, and across different production systems.9 further disparities occur owing to the differing methodologies deployed in the life-cycle analyses. moreover, in countries where production is largely extensive, and where natural forests are being converted into pasture or into cropland to grow feed, the emissions intensity of meat products, particularly beef, increases significantly.10
What is one important misperception that participants have with regard to climate change?
an important misperception occurs in the lack of recognition of the contribution of meat eating/production contributing to greenhouse gas emissions
What is the percentage of emissions that agricultural, and especially livestock, account for globally?
mcmichael et al. (2007) note how agricultural and especially livestock--based activities account for around a fifth of emissions globally, in their proposal for a restriction in the production and consumption of red meat. in general, people identify the causes of climate change with more 'distant' activities, namely industry and deforestation, rather than their own actions2
participants evidently recognize the main causes of climate change, including emissions from deforestation, industry, transport and (more generally) fossil fuel use (figure 2). however, misperceptions exist in respect of the relative contribution of different activities or processes in causing climate change. an important misperception occurs in the lack of recognition of the contribution of meat eating/production contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. mcmichael et al. (2007) note how agricultural and especially livestock--based activities account for around a fifth of emissions globally, in their proposal for a restriction in the production and consumption of red meat. in general, people identify the causes of climate change with more 'distant' activities, namely industry and deforestation, rather than their own actions2. participants' perceptions of climate change as a non--salient issue are also reflected in their beliefs about the impacts of climate change, with only 53% agreeing 'climate change is something that is affecting or is going to affect me, personally'.
What is growing and realization ?
in response to the growing realization among campaigners and practitioners that climate change messages have not effectively reached large swaths of the general public (internationally), there has been a more recent trend for environmental ngos, as well as governmental actors, to adopt the principles of social marketing--that is, the systematic application of concepts and strategies used to market physical products in order to achieve prosocial behavioral goals.89central among these principles is the idea that the audience of a campaign should be 'segmented' into different groups based on differences in their attitudes or values, and that the message of the campaign should be tailored to these different groups
What are campaigners?
in response to the growing realization among campaigners and practitioners that climate change messages have not effectively reached large swaths of the general public (internationally), there has been a more recent trend for environmental ngos, as well as governmental actors, to adopt the principles of social marketing--that is, the systematic application of concepts and strategies used to market physical products in order to achieve prosocial behavioral goals.89central among these principles is the idea that the audience of a campaign should be 'segmented' into different groups based on differences in their attitudes or values, and that the message of the campaign should be tailored to these different groups
What are practitioners?
in response to the growing realization among campaigners and practitioners that climate change messages have not effectively reached large swaths of the general public (internationally), there has been a more recent trend for environmental ngos, as well as governmental actors, to adopt the principles of social marketing--that is, the systematic application of concepts and strategies used to market physical products in order to achieve prosocial behavioral goals.89central among these principles is the idea that the audience of a campaign should be 'segmented' into different groups based on differences in their attitudes or values, and that the message of the campaign should be tailored to these different groups
in response to the growing realization among campaigners and practitioners that climate change messages have not effectively reached large swaths of the general public (internationally), there has been a more recent trend for environmental ngos, as well as governmental actors, to adopt the principles of social marketing--that is, the systematic application of concepts and strategies used to market physical products in order to achieve prosocial behavioral goals.89central among these principles is the idea that the audience of a campaign should be 'segmented' into different groups based on differences in their attitudes or values, and that the message of the campaign should be tailored to these different groups. the techniques and strategies of social marketing have been shown to be successful in promoting some limited changes in proenvironmental behaviors, and have been pursued by a wide range of actors seeking to engage the pubic on climate change.90however, because social marketing advocates framing messages about climate change according to the dominant values of the target audience, such efforts can lead to paradoxical situations whereby values known to be incongruent with engagement with climate change (e.g. materialism) are used as the basis of campaigns to engage the public.91in particular, it has become very common for campaigns aimed at promoting climatefriendly behavior to emphasize the economic benefits of doing so, rather than the environmental ones.92