ORI Plunges Beyond Dilution Effect!
ORI was a bit shaky on the XD to close at ฿11.10/share, which was what usually happened on the XD. But when it continued to sink further, that meant problems....
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ORIGIN PROPERTY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (ORI) has lost its center of balance since it put up the XD sign (16 Oct). Fans probably still remember that the price of ORI shares downed 34.70% (from ฿17/share to ฿11.10/share a minus of ฿5.90), more than the dilution effect from the stock dividend of 2 existing shares per 1 dividend share. The dilution effect should have been 33%, in other words ORI’s share prices should be around ฿11.30…!
 
The number of original shares was 1,632 million shares, plus the stock dividend of 816 million shares, the number of shares increased to 2,448 million shares or up 50%, but the calculated effect is about 33%.
From the phenomenon acting on the substrate, the panic sells of ORI is not stopping, to the point where it could be compared to a ” fighter that’s been rocked” so hard “he can’t even find his corner”. And from that day to today, ORI shares have retreated back deeper down the ditch to ฿9, a minus of over 47%.
 
Which brings up the question that whether those who received the stock dividend today (31 Oct) are getting their money’s worth! The answer is no!! Because the average cost is ฿11.30, but the price on the boards is ฿9.00. The cost is ฿2.33 higher than the board..!
 
The problem now, is not when the ORI stock will climb back to be worth what it costs, but when will ORI’s shares stop falling..!! And so, the big question is whether ORI has enough grit within to steady itself back up..!?
The numbers for its 3Q/18 earnings are expected to help ORI recover from the fall..! Estimated net profits are at ฿800-900 million, up 48-50% yoy from ฿556 million.
But there is a looming closet concern… It seems that the extra profit from the sale of land of ฿358 million will mean that the normal operations profit is at ฿442-542 million (lower than the same period last year).
If the numbers come out as surmised, instead of being the indication of “hope” they may turn to be signs of “hopelessness“,.. that will knock ORI further off its balance.
 
The turning point for ORI thus will be this third quarter, a “revived to continue the fight or knocked down for the count” kind of round..! ??
That means today (31 Oct) may be a day that investors receive the “dividend share of tears“.
 