FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 21/09/2022 “Dr. Doom ทำนายเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ ถดถอย ยาวนานและน่าเกลียด บริษัท ‘ซอมบี้’ กำลังตายจากดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้น ชี้โอกาส S&P 500 ร่วงอีก 40%” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา - FINNOMENA
FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 21/09/2022 “Dr. Doom ทำนายเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ ถดถอย ยาวนานและน่าเกลียด บริษัท ‘ซอมบี้’ กำลังตายจากดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้น ชี้โอกาส S&P 500 ร่วงอีก 40%” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา
21 ก.ย. 2565

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FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 21/09/2022
“Dr. Doom ทำนายเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ ถดถอย ยาวนานและน่าเกลียด บริษัท ‘ซอมบี้’ กำลังตายจากดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้น ชี้โอกาส S&P 500 ร่วงอีก 40%”
ภาพความเคลื่อนไหวล่าของตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลก
ตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ Dow Jones ปิดที่ 30,706.23 จุด -313.45จุด (-1.01%) S&P500 ปิดที่ 3,855.93 จุด -43.96 จุด (-1.13%)  Nasdaq  ปิดที่ 11,425.05 จุด -109.97 จุด (-0.95%)  Small Cap 2000 ปิดที่ 1,788.26 จุด -24.58 จุด (-1.36%) VIX index ปิดที่ 27.16 จุด (+5.43%)
ตลาดหุ้นยุโรป Euro Stoxx 50 ปิดที่ 3,467.09 จุด -32.4 จุด (-0.93%) Dax เยอรมัน ปิดที่ 12,670.83 จุด -132.41 จุด (-1.03%) CAC 40 ฝรั่งเศส ปิดที่ 5,979.47 จุด -82.12 จุด (-1.35%) 
ตลาดหุ้นเอเชีย (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) ดัชนี Nikkei 225 ปิดที่ 27,688.35 จุด +120.77 จุด (+0.44%) ดัชนี CSI 300 ปิดที่ 3,932.83 จุด +4.8 จุด (+0.12%)  ดัชนี Hang Seng ปิดที่ 18,781.43 จุด +215.45 จุด (+1.16%)  และ SET Index ปิดที่ 1,661.09 จุด -4.65 จุด (-0.28%)
ราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ (เช้าวันที่ 21 ก.ย. 2565) ทองคำ 1,673.05 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Silver 19.302 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ราคาน้ำมันดิบ WTI 84.16 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Brent 90.93 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
ราคา Cryptocurrency (เช้าวันที่ 21 ก.ย. 2565) Bitcoin 19,033.8 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Ethereum 1,342.16 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Dogecoin 0.059402 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Binance Coin 267.9 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
จับตาผลประชุม Fed คืนนี้ ตลาดคาดขึ้นดอกเบี้ย 75 bps จนแตะระดับ 4.26% ในเดือนมีนาคมปีหน้า และการปรับดอกเบี้ยครั้งนี้จะเป็นในรูปแบบขึ้นดอกเบี้ยแล้วคงไว้ในระดับเกิน 4% ต่อเนื่องประมาณ 11 เดือน พร้อมปรับประมาณการณ์เงินเฟ้อ อัตราว่างงานสูงขึ้น และคาดการณ์ว่ามีแนวโน้ม 52% ที่เศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ จะเข้าสู่ภาวะถดถอยในอีก 12 เดือนข้างหน้า
Nouriel Roubini เจ้าของฉายา Dr. Doom ผู้เคยทำนายวิกฤติ 2008 คาดเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ ถดถอย ‘ยาวนานและน่าเกลียด’ ชี้โอกาส S&P500 ร่วงอีก 40% จากการที่ Fed พยายามควบคุมเงินเฟ้อที่อยู่ในระดับ 8% – 9% ให้ลดลงสู่ระดับเงินเฟ้อเป้าหมายที่ 2% โดยการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยที่รวดเร็ว ทำให้บริษัทกำลังตายจากต้นทุนด้านดอกเบี้ยที่สูงขึ้น
นักเศรษฐศาตร์คาด BOJ จะคงดอกเบี้ย และใช้นโยบายการเงินผ่อนคลายต่อไปเพื่อกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจต่อไป แม้จะทำให้เงินเยนอ่อนค่า และเงินเฟ้อสูงสุดรอบ 31 ปี อยู่ที่ระดับ 2.8% สูงกว่าที่ตลาดคาดไว้ที่ 2.7%
ผู้ผลิตรถยนต์ Ford หุ้นร่วง 12% แรงสุดรอบ 11 ปี หลังต้นทุนการผลิตพุ่ง $1,100 ล้าน จากภาวะเงินเฟ้อ และการขาดแคลนชิ้นส่วนอุปกรณ์การผลิต
เจพี มอร์แกน มอง ไทย ญี่ปุ่น เป็นจุดอ่อนในเอเชีย รองลงคือ เกาหลีใต้ อินเดีย เมื่อพิจารณาจากดุลบัญชีเดินสะพัด และทุนสำรองเงินตราต่างประเทศที่ปรับลดลง ด้านเงินทุนสำรองเงินตราต่างประเทศในกลุ่ม Emerging Markets มีมูลค่ารวมกันอยู่ที่ $2.6 ล้านล้าน
กิจกรรมที่น่าสนใจ
งาน FA Summit จัดขึ้นวันที่ 24 กันยายน 2565 เวลา 13.00 – 16.30 น. ณ โรงละครเคแบงค์สยามพิฆเนศลงทะเบียนได้ที่ https://www.finnomena.com/fa-summit-2022/
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