FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 25/07/2022 “ประชุม FOMC 26 – 27 ก.ค. นี้ ตลาดคาด Fed ขึ้นดอกเบี้ย 75 bps ท่ามกลางความเสี่ยงเงินเฟ้อ - Recession” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา - FINNOMENA
FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 25/07/2022 “ประชุม FOMC 26 – 27 ก.ค. นี้ ตลาดคาด Fed ขึ้นดอกเบี้ย 75 bps ท่ามกลางความเสี่ยงเงินเฟ้อ - Recession” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา
25 ก.ค. 2565

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FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 25/07/2022
 “ประชุม FOMC 26 – 27 ก.ค. นี้ ตลาดคาด Fed ขึ้นดอกเบี้ย 75 bps ท่ามกลางความเสี่ยงเงินเฟ้อ – Recession”
 ภาพความเคลื่อนไหวล่าของตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลก
 ตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) Dow Jones ปิดที่ 31,899.29 -137.61 จุด (-0.43%) S&P500 ปิดที่ 3,961.63 -37.32 จุด (-0.93%) Nasdaq 11,834.11 ปิดที่ -225.50 จุด (-1.87%) Small Cap 2000 ปิดที่ 1,799.92 -36.78 จุด (-2.00%) VIX index อยู่ที่ 23.03 (-0.35%)
 ตลาดหุ้นยุโรป (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) EURO STOXX 50 ปิดที่ 3,596.49 -0.02 จุด (-0.00%) Dax เยอรมนี ปิดที่ 13,253.68 +7.04 จุด (+0.05%) CAC 40 ฝรั่งเศส ปิดที่ 6,216.82 +15.71 จุด (+0.25%) FTSE 100 อังกฤษ ปิดที่ 7,276.37 จุด +5.86 จุด (+0.08%)
 ตลาดหุ้นเอเชีย (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) Nikkei 225 ญี่ปุ่น ปิดที่ 27,914.66 จุด +111.66 จุด (+0.40%) CSI 300 จีน ปิดที่ 4,238.23 จุด +2.18 จุด (+0.05%) Hang Seng ฮ่องกง ปิดที่ 20,609.14 จุด +34.51 จุด (+0.17%) SET Index ไทย ปิดที่ 1,552.73 จุด +6.42 จุด (+0.42%) VN30 เวียดนาม ปิดที่ 1,228.84 จุด -6.41 จุด (-0.52%)
 ราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ (เช้าวันที่ 25 ก.ค. 2565) ราคาทองคำ 1,724.15 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Silver ราคา 18.453 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ราคาน้ำมันดิบ WTI 93.75 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Brent 97.42 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
 ราคา Cryptocurrency (เช้าวันที่ 25 ก.ค. 2565) Bitcoin 21,906.7 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Ethereum 1,525.23 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ และ Binance Coin 255.60 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
 ภาพรวมสินทรัพย์ทั่วโลกที่ปรับตัวบวกและลบสูงที่สุดในรอบ 1 สัปดาห์ 3 อันดับแรก กลุ่มที่ปรับตัวในทิศทางบวก – หุ้นญี่ปุ่น (+4.2%), Global REIT (+3.6%) และดัชนี S&P500 (+3.4%) ปรับตัวในทิศทางลบ – น้ำมัน (-7.3%) และค่าเงินดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ (-0.6%)
 ภาพรวมตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลกที่ปรับตัวบวกที่สุดในรอบ 1 สัปดาห์ 3 อันดับแรก กลุ่มที่ปรับตัวในทิศทางบวก – ดัชนี Nikkei 225 และดัชนี Nasdaq (+4.2%), ดัชนี S&P500 (+3.4%) และดัชนี MSCI World (+3.3%) ปรับตัวในทิศทางลบ – หุ้นจีน A-Shares (-1.2%), หุ้นจีน A-Shares (-1.1%) และดัชนี PCOMP ฟิลิปปินส์ (-0.1%)
 ผลตอบแทนตามธีมต่างๆ ในรอบ  1 สัปดาห์ – Blockchain (+14.9%), Global Cloud (+6.6%), Semiconductor (+6.1%), Cybersecurity (+4.4%), Esport (+4.3%), Sustainable Energy (+4.2%), Clean Energy (+3.3%) และ Health Care (+0.9%)
 สรุปข่าวประจำวัน
ติดตามการประกาศผลประกอบการในสัปดาห์นี้ อาทิ Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Pfizer, Microsoft, Visa, Roku และ Intel เป็นต้น
 WHO ประกาศให้โรค ‘ฝีดาษลิง’ เป็นสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินด้านสาธารณสุขโรค ทั้งโลกตรวจพบผู้ติดเชื้อมากกว่า 75 ประเทศ จำนวนมากกว่า 16,000 ราย มีผู้เสียชีวิต 5 ราย พบในอังกฤษมากที่สุดกว่า 300 ราย ผู้ติดเชื้อจะมีอาการหลังติดเชื้อ 12 วัน อาการป่วยกินเวลา 2 – 4 สัปดาห์ โดยส่วนใหญ่ผู้ป่วยจะหายเองได้
 สัปดาห์นี้จะมีการประชุม FOMC วันที่ 26 – 27 ก.ค. ตลาดคาดการณ์ Fed ขึ้นดอกเบี้ยรอบนี้ 75 bps ท่ามกลางความเสี่ยงของเงินเฟ้อและ Recession โดยตัวเลขคาดการณ์เงินเฟ้อ อยู่ในระดับสูงที่สุดในรอบกว่า 10 ปี
 การสำรวจความเห็นนักวิเคราะห์จาก Bloomberg พบว่า 48% มองว่าสหรัฐฯ มีโอกาสเกิดเศรษฐกิจถดถอยภายใน 24 เดือน มีเพียง 12% ที่คาดว่าจะเป็นการชะลอตัวแบบ soft landing
  จีนเสี่ยงเจอปัญหาวิกฤติอสังหา เมื่อคนจีนหยุดผ่อนบ้าน เนื่องจากบริษัทอสังหายังไม่สามารถส่งมอบบ้านให้ได้ เพิ่มความเสี่ยงที่จะเกิดปัญหาเป็นโดมิโน ขณะที่ชนชั้นกลางเริ่มลดรายจ่าย ซึ่งจะกระทบกับภาคอสังหาริมทรัพย์ด้วย
 ตัวเลขสินเชื่ออสังหาต่อ GDP ของจีนอยู่ที่ 60% แม้ว่าจะต่ำกว่าสหรัฐฯ และญี่ปุ่น แต่มีแนวโน้มเพิ่มขึ้นสูงขึ้นอย่างรวดเร็วเทียบกับอีก 2 ประเทศ ที่เริ่มเห็นสัญญาณชะลอตัว
 Twitter รายงานงบไตรมาส 2 ต่ำกว่าคาดการณ์ สาเหตุมาจากตลาดโฆษณาชะลอตัวลง และดีลควบรวมของอีลอน มัสก์ ก่อให้เกิดความไม่แน่นอน มุมมองนักวิเคราะห์ส่วนใหญ่แนะนำถือ มี upside เฉลี่ย 8%
 ผู้ว่าการธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทยมองว่าการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยเพียงครั้งเดียวอาจยังไม่พอ คาดการณ์ GDP ปี 2565 และ 2566 อยู่ที่ 3.3% และ 42.% เงินเฟ้อปีนี้คาดไว้ที่ 6.2%
 4 เรื่องที่เป็นเรื่องเข้าใจผิด 1. ส่วนต่างดอกเบี้ยไทยกับสหรัฐฯ ที่กว้างขึ้นไม่ใช่ปัจจัยเดียวที่ทำให้เงินทุนไหลออก 2. เงินบาทที่อ่อนค่าส่วนใหญ่มากจากการแข็งค่าของค่าเงินดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ เป็นหลัก ไม่ใช่เงินทุนไหลออก 3. เงินทุนสำรองฯ ที่ลดลงตอนนี้เกิดจากการตีมูลค่าเป็นหลัก 4. เงินทุนสำรองที่ลดลง ไม่ได้กระทบจนก่อให้เกิดความเสี่ยงที่จะเกิดวิกฤติเหมือนปี 2540 ไทยยังมีเงินทุนรองเทียบกับ GDP สูงเป็นอันดับ 6 ของโลก
 รายการที่น่าสนใจ
Mr. Messenger Talk EP26: จุดซื้อครึ่งปีหลังอยู่ไหน ถ้าหุ้นไทยจะหลุด 1,500 จุด พบกับคุณกวี ชูกิจเกษม ผู้บริหาร บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ พาย จำกัด (มหาชน)
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