FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 01/09/2022 “หุ้นสหรัฐฯ เสี่ยงฟองสบู่แตก นักวิเคราะห์ - นักลงทุน เตือน Bear Market Rally โอกาส S&P 500 ลบอีก 15% เหตุ Fed ขึ้นดอกเบี้ย” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา - FINNOMENA
FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 01/09/2022 “หุ้นสหรัฐฯ เสี่ยงฟองสบู่แตก นักวิเคราะห์ - นักลงทุน เตือน Bear Market Rally โอกาส S&P 500 ลบอีก 15% เหตุ Fed ขึ้นดอกเบี้ย” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา
1 ก.ย. 2565

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FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 01/09/2022
“หุ้นสหรัฐฯ เสี่ยงฟองสบู่แตก นักวิเคราะห์ – นักลงทุน เตือน Bear Market Rally โอกาส S&P 500 ลบอีก 15% เหตุ Fed ขึ้นดอกเบี้ย”
ภาพความเคลื่อนไหวล่าของตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลก
ตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ Dow Jones ปิดที่ 31,510.43 จุด -280.44 จุด (-0.88%) S&P500 ปิดที่ 3,955.00 จุด -31.16 จุด (-0.78%)  Nasdaq  ปิดที่ 11,816.2 จุด -66.93 จุด (-0.56%)  Small Cap 2000 ปิดที่ 1,848.96 จุด -6.63 จุด (-0.36%) VIX index ปิดที่ 25.78 จุด (-1.3%)
ตลาดหุ้นยุโรป Euro Stoxx 50 ปิดที่ 3,517.25 จุด 44.67 จุด (-1.25%) Dax เยอรมัน ปิดที่ 12,834.96 จุด -126.18 จุด (-0.97%) CAC 40 ฝรั่งเศส ปิดที่ 6,125.1 จุด -85.12 จุด (-1.37%) 
ตลาดหุ้นเอเชีย (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) ดัชนี Nikkei 225 ปิดที่ 28,091.46 จุด -104.05 จุด (-0.37%) ดัชนี CSI 300 ปิดที่ 4,078.84 จุด +3.04 จุด (+0.07%)  ดัชนี Hang Seng ปิดที่ 19,954.4 จุด +5.36 จุด (+0.03%)  และ SET Index ปิดที่ 1,638.93 จุด -0.52 จุด (-0.03%)
ราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ (เช้าวันที่ 1 ก.ย. 2565) ทองคำ 1,715.95 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Silver 17.593 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ราคาน้ำมันดิบ WTI 89.3 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Brent 95.28 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
ราคา Cryptocurrency (เช้าวันที่ 1 ก.ย. 2565) Bitcoin 20,127.9 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Ethereum 1,560.87 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Dogecoin 0.061643 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Binance Coin 279.4 ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
ประธาน Fed สาขาคลีฟแลนด์ คาดอัตราดอกเบี้ยสหรัฐฯ ขึ้นต่ออย่างต่อเนื่องถึง 200 bps ยืนเหนือ 4% ในต้นปีหน้า จากปัจจุบันอยู่ที่ระดับ 2.25% – 2.5% และจะไม่มีการลดดอกเบี้ยในปี 2023 การขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอาจส่งผลกระทบต่อเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ ชะลอตัว
Bank of America เตือนตลาดประเมินความเสี่ยงจาก Fed ต่ำเกินไป สะท้อนจากดัชนี VIX Index ที่ปรับตัวขึ้นต่อเนื่อง และอัตราเงินเฟ้อที่ยังสูงอยู่ ถ้าเงินเฟ้อไม่ลงมาที่ระดับ 2% Fed ก็ยังจะเดินหน้าขึ้นดอกเบี้ยต่อ คาดการณ์ว่าตลาดจะยังไม่กลับไปเป็นขาขึ้น
Morgan Stanley เตือน Bear Market Rally ตลาดยังลงไม่จบ S&P 500 อาจลงอีก 15% แตะ 3,000 ในปลายปีนี้ จากภาวะเงินเฟ้อที่ยังสูง และ Fed เดินหน้าขึ้นดอกเบี้ย
Jeremy Grantham นักลงทุนชื่อดังเตือนความเสี่ยงตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ ‘Super Bubble’ ฟองสบู่ใกล้แตก ซึ่งการใช้นโยบายการเงินที่เข้มข้อนของ Fed จะเป็นตัวกระตุ้นให้ตลาดปรับลง โดยตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ ปรับตัวลงมาจากจุดสูงสุดในเดือนมกราคมลงมาจนถึงเดือนมิถุนายนกว่า 25%
รัสเซียระงับส่งก๊าซผ่านท่อ Nord Stream 1 ให้ยุโรปชั่วคราว 31 ส.ค. – 3 ก.ย. เพิ่มแรงกดดันก่อนฤดูหนาว เกิดความเสี่ยงเศรษฐกิจถดถอยของยุโรปจากการขาดแคลนพลังงาน ล่าสุดราคาก๊าซพุ่งขึ้นไป 4 เท่าตัวจากเดือนสิงหาคมปีที่แล้ว
เงินเฟ้อยูโรโซน ส.ค. อยู่ที่ 9.1% ทำสถิติสูงสุดใหม่ เหตุราคาอาหาร – พลังงานพุ่ง คาดการณ์ ECB จะมีการปรับขึ้นดอกเบี้ยครั้งใหญ่ที่ระดับ 50 – 75 bps ในเดือนหน้าเพื่อสกัดเงินเฟ้อ
หุ้น Nvidia ร่วงหลังรัฐบาลสหรัฐฯ ออกข้อกำหนดใหม่ที่เข้มงวดในการส่งออกชิปให้จีน และรัสเซีย ต้องขอใบอนุญาต จะส่งผลกระทบต่อรายได้ถึง $400 ล้าน
ธปท. ชี้เศรษฐกิจมีสัญญาณชะลอตัว ในเดือนก.ย. ค่าไฟฟ้า (FT) ขึ้นราคา 0.68 บาทต่อหน่วย ในรอบเดือนก.ย. – ธ.ค. ราคาก๊าซหุงต้มปรับขึ้นกิโลกรัมละ 1 บาท ค่าครองชีพสูงฉุดการบริโภค ขณะที่ส่งออกชะลอตามเศรษฐกิจประเทศคู่ค้า
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