FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 19/07/2022 “เศรษฐกิจจีนครึ่งปีหลังน่าห่วง โควิด - วิกฤติอสังหา รุมเร้า นักวิเคราะห์หั่นเป้า GDP เหลือ 3.3%” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา - FINNOMENA
FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 19/07/2022 “เศรษฐกิจจีนครึ่งปีหลังน่าห่วง โควิด - วิกฤติอสังหา รุมเร้า นักวิเคราะห์หั่นเป้า GDP เหลือ 3.3%” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา
19 ก.ค. 2565

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FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 19/07/2022
 “เศรษฐกิจจีนครึ่งปีหลังน่าห่วง โควิด – วิกฤติอสังหา รุมเร้า นักวิเคราะห์หั่นเป้า GDP เหลือ 3.3%”
 ภาพความเคลื่อนไหวล่าของตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลก
 ตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) Dow Jones ปิดที่ 31,072.61 -215.65 จุด (-0.69%) S&P500 ปิดที่ 3,830.85 -32.31 จุด (-0.84%) Nasdaq 11,360.05 ปิดที่ -92.37 จุด (-0.81%) Small Cap 2000 ปิดที่ 1,734.25 -10.12 จุด (-0.58%) VIX index อยู่ที่ 25.30 (+4.42%)
 ตลาดหุ้นยุโรป (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) EURO STOXX 50 ปิดที่ 3,511.86 +34.66 จุด (+1.00%) Dax เยอรมนี ปิดที่ 12,959.81 +95.09 จุด (+0.74%) CAC 40 ฝรั่งเศส ปิดที่ 6,091.91 +55.91 จุด (+0.93%) FTSE 100 อังกฤษ ปิดที่ 7,223.24 จุด +64.23 จุด (+0.90%)
 ตลาดหุ้นเอเชีย (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) Nikkei 225 ญี่ปุ่น ปิดทำการซื้อขาย CSI 300 จีน ปิดที่ 4,292.59 จุด +44.06 จุด (+1.04%) Hang Seng ฮ่องกง ปิดที่ 20,846.18 จุด +548.46 จุด (+2.70%) SET Index ไทย ปิดที่ 1,544.81 จุด +11.44 จุด (+0.75%) VN30 เวียดนาม ปิดที่ 1,214.28 จุด -5.86 จุด (-0.48%)
 ราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ (เช้าวันที่ 19 ก.ค. 2565) ราคาทองคำ 1,706.95 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Silver ราคา 18.593 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ราคาน้ำมันดิบ WTI 99.05 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Brent 105.89 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
 ราคา Cryptocurrency (เช้าวันที่ 19 ก.ค. 2565) Bitcoin 21,877.7 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Ethereum 1,516.44 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ และ Binance Coin 258.3 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
 สรุปข่าวประจำวัน
รัสเซียอ้างเหตุสุดวิสัย ก๊าซพรอมซึ่งเป็นรัฐวิสาหกิจยักษ์ใหญ่ขอหยุดส่งก๊าซยาว โดยแจ้งลูกค้าว่าไม่มีการรับประกันอุปทาน ทำให้ราคาน้ำมันปรับตัวเพิ่มขึ้นในคืนที่ผ่านมา
 นักวิเคราะห์เริ่มหั่นเป้าเศรษฐกิจจีน บางค่ายมองอาจจะโตแค่ 3.3% สาเหตุหลักมาจากนโยบายควบคุมโควิด
 จีนเริ่มพบผู้ติดเชื้อเพิ่มขึ้น โดยเฉพาะเซี่ยงไฮ้ ซึ่งคาดว่าจะมีการปูพรมตรวจหาเชื้ออีกครั้ง ขณะที่มาเก๊ายังขยายเวลาการปิดคาสิโนต่อ หลังจากตัวเลขผู้ติดเชื้อยังไม่ลดลง
 ตัวเลข PMI จีนยังอยู่สูงกว่า 50 เล็กน้อย สำหรับเดือนมิ.ย. แต่การลงทุนในสินทรัพย์ถาวรหรือการสั่งซื้อวัตถุดิบยังเห็นสัญญาณชะลอตัว ส่วน Li Keqiang Index ยังอยู่ในภาวะชะลอตัวเช่นกัน
 ตั้งแต่ต้นปีบริษัทใน CSI300 โดนปรับลดประมาณการ EPS -8% ส่วนบริษัทใน MSCI China โดนปรับลด -16% ถ้าดูตั้งแต่ตั้งแต่ต้นเดือนก.ค. บริษัทใน CSI300 โดนปรับลดประมาณการ -0.2% บริษัทใน MSCI China ถูกปรับลด -0.9%
 ความเชื่อมั่นผู้บริโภคจีนอยู่ในระดับต่ำที่สุดตั้งแต่ปี 2011 ตัวเลขที่สะท้อนความมั่นใจในเรื่องการจ้างงานจีนอยู่ในระดับต่ำที่สุดตั้งแต่ปี 2009
 จีนเร่งแก้วิกฤติอสังหาฯ ขอธนาคารขยายสินเชื่อโครงการที่ขาดสภาพคล่องจากการคว่ำบาตร เตรียมออกมาตรการยกเลิกค่าธรรมเนียมหยุดผ่อนจากลูกบ้าน หวังลดความโกรธแค้น
 มีรายงานว่า Apple เตรียมชะลอการจ้างงาน จากความกังวลเรื่องภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอย Apple มีการจ้างงานทั่วโลกอยู่ที่ประมาณ 1.5 แสนตำแหน่ง มุมมองของนักวิเคราะห์ส่วนใหญ่ยังแนะนำซื้อ มี upside เฉลี่ยประมาณ 23%
 นักวิเคราะห์จาก Morgan Stanley และ Goldman Sachs เตือนว่าตลาดหุ้นยังไม่ถึงจุดต่ำสุด
 ข้อมูลจาก Bloomberg ชี้ว่าโอกาสในการเกิดเศรษฐกิจถดถอยในรอบ 1 ปีอยู่ที่ 38% และโอกาสเกิดเศรษฐกิจถดถอยในรอบ 2 ปี อยู่ที่ 98% ส่วนพันธบัตรรัฐบาลสหรัฐฯ อายุ 2 ปี และ 10 ปี ยังเกิดภาวะ inverted
 Goldman Sachs รายงานรายได้และ EPS สูงกว่าคาด ได้รับผลดีจากธุรกิจซื้อขายตราสารหนี้ แต่ธุรกิจ IB และการจัดการสินทรัพย์ลดลง CEO ของบริษัทมีมุมมองค่อนข้างระมัดระวังและกังวลต่อแนวโน้มเศรษฐกิจ โดยเฉพาะเรื่องของเงินเฟ้อ นักวิเคราะห์ส่วนใหญ่แนะนำซื้อหุ้น มี upside ประมาณ 29%
 Bank of America รายงานงบเป็นไปตามคาดการณ์ ขณะที่แนวโน้มช่วงครึ่งปีหลังยังมีแนวโน้มเป็นบวก ได้รับผลดีจากการปรับขึ้นดอกเบี้ย มุมมองนักวิเคราะห์โดยเฉลี่ย ราคาหุ้นมี upside ประมาณ 30%
 IBM รายงานงบดีกว่าคาดการณ์ แต่มีการปรับลดคาดการณ์ผลประกอบการในช่วงสิ้นปี ทำให้ราคาหุ้นเมื่อคืนปรับตัวลดลง
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