FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 01/07/2022 “สรุปภาวะการลงทุนครึ่งปีเเรก หุ้นโลกเผชิญภาวะขาลง หุ้นสหรัฐฯเเย่สุดรอบ 50 ปี”พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา - FINNOMENA
FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 01/07/2022 “สรุปภาวะการลงทุนครึ่งปีเเรก หุ้นโลกเผชิญภาวะขาลง หุ้นสหรัฐฯเเย่สุดรอบ 50 ปี” พร้อมสรุปเนื้อหา
1 ก.ค. 2565

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width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; 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FINNOMENA The Opportunity Morning Brief 01/07/2022
 “สรุปภาวะการลงทุนครึ่งปีเเรก หุ้นโลกเผชิญภาวะขาลง หุ้นสหรัฐฯเเย่สุดรอบ 50 ปี”
 ภาพความเคลื่อนไหวล่าของตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลก
ตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ  Dow Jones ปิดที่  30,775.43 จุด -253.88  จุด  (-0.82%) S&P 500 ปิดที่ 3,785.38 จุด -33.45  จุด (-0.88%) Nasdaq ปิดที่ 11,028.74 จุด -149.16  จุด (-1.33%) Small Cap 2000 ปิดที่ 1,699.68 จุด -19.69  จุด (-1.15%) VIX Index อยู่ที่ 28.71 จุด +0.55  จุด (+1.95%)
 ตลาดหุ้นยุโรป  Euro Stoxx 50 ปิดที่  3,454.86 จุด -59.46  จุด  (-1.69%) Dax เยอรมัน ปิดที่  12,783.77 จุด -219.58  จุด  (-1.69%) CAC 40 ฝรั่งเศส ปิดที่  5,922.86 จุด -108.62  จุด  (-1.8%) FTSE 100 อังกฤษ ปิดที่  7,169.28 จุด -143.04  จุด  (-1.96%)
 ตลาดหุ้นเอเชีย (ราคาปิดวันทำการล่าสุด) Nikkei 225 ญี่ปุ่น ปิดที่  26,393.04 จุด -411.56  จุด  (-1.54%) CSI 300 จีน ปิดที่  4,485.01 จุด +63.65 จุด  (1.44%) Hang Seng ฮ่องกง ปิดที่  21,859.79 จุด -137.1  จุด  (-0.62%) SET Index ไทย ปิดที่  1,568.33 จุด -17.85  จุด  (-1.13%) VN30 เวียดนาม ปิดที่  1,248.92 จุด -24.48  จุด  (-1.92%)
 ราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ (เช้าวันที่ 01 กรกฎาคม 2565 ) ราคาทองคำ 1,835.15 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ราคาแร่เงิน 21.277 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ราคาน้ำมันดิบ WTI 103.25 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ราคาน้ำมันดิบ Brent 108.9 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
 ราคา Cryptocurrency (เช้าวันที่ 01 กรกฎาคม 2565 )  Bitcoin 20,353 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Ethereum 1,086.13 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Dogecoin 0.06299 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ Binance 218.8 เหรียญดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
 สรุปภาวะการลงทุนทั่วโลกครึ่งปีแรก 2022 ดัชนีหุ้นโลก MSCI world ผลตอบแทนแย่สุดตั้งแต่จัดทำดัชนีตั้งเเต่ปี 1990 โดย MSCI World มีผลตอบเเทน -20.30% , Nasdaq -29.20% , S&P500 -20% , China A-Share -8.30% , Euro STOXX600 -14.4% โดยมีเงินไหลออกจากหุ้นโลกจำนวน $13 ล้านล้าน ค่าเงินเยนอ่อนค่า 15.5% นับจากต้นปี ราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ให้ผลตอบเเทนมากสูงนับตั้งเเต่ สงครามโลกครั้งที่ 1 
 ตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ ครึ่งปีแรกเผชิญตลาดขาลง ผลตอบแทนแย่สุดรอบ 50 ปี นับตั้งเเต่ปี 1970 โดยเดือนพฤษภาคมการใช้จ่ายของผู้บริโภคเพิ่มขึ้นปานกลาง เงินเฟ้อยังคงอยู่ในระดับสูง 
 ดีเดย์ 1 ก.ค. ไทยมีมติให้ “ยกเลิกระบบ Thailand Pass” และยกเลิกการบังคับนักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติทำประกันสุขภาพ โดยนักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติแค่แสดงใบรับรองการฉีดวัคซีน (Certificate of Vaccination) หรือแสดงผลการตรวจหาเชื้อโควิดเป็นลบด้วยวิธีตามที่กำหนด ในกรณีที่ยังไม่ได้ฉีดวัคซีนหรือฉีดไม่ครบโดส ล่าสุดมีคำสั่งให้สวมหน้ากากอนามัย ขยายเวลาการเปิดให้บริการของ “ธุรกิจภาคกลางคืน” โดยคาดหวังว่ามาตรการต่างๆจะสามารถฟื้นเศรษฐกิจจากการท่องเที่ยวได้
 มุมมองการลงทุน 2H2022 Strategy
‘Recession Playbook 2022 | Predict ⬝ Prepare ⬝ Perform’
‘Predict’
U.S. Economic
-สถิติชี้หลังขึ้นดอกเบี้ย 13 ครั้ง เกิดเศรษฐกิจถดถอย (Recession) ถึง 10 ครั้ง
-เงินเฟ้ออาจเริ่มอ่อนแรงแต่น่าจะมาพร้อมกับเศรษฐกิจที่อ่อนตัว
-จากสัญญาณ Leading ระยะสั้น U.S. Manufacturing ISM ที่จะประกาศอาจแย่กว่าที่ตลาดคาด
-ความเชื่อมั่นผู้บริโภคที่ตกต่ำจะดันให้อัตราการว่างงานน่าจะเพิ่มขึ้น
-ราคาบ้านมีโอกาสสูงปรับลดลงแรงตามอัตราดอกเบี้ยสินเชื่อบ้านที่พุ่งขึ้นไปแล้ว
‘Prepare’
-Market & Sector Downside Estimation โดย S&P500 เเละ  Global Infrastructure EPS ลดลงโดยเฉลี่ย 24%-27% Global Healthcare ลดลงโดยเฉลี่ย 4% ในช่วงวิกฤต สะท้อนกลุ่ม Healthcare สามารถทนต่อวิกฤตได้ 
– ทองเเละพันธบัตรโลก ยังเป็นสินทรัพย์ที่หลบภัยจากหุ้นได้ดีจากวิกฤต
‘Perform’
Investment Strategies 
-ถ้าภาคอสังหาฯ สหรัฐฯ หดตัวเหมือน Subprime Crisis รอเวลาให้ผ่านไป 3 ถึง 4 เดือนแล้วจึงเข้าลงทุน
-ถ้าการปรับฐานลึก เช่น Dot Com Bubble การเข้าซื้อที่ระดับ -30% และ -40% จะเป็น ระดับที่ สร้างผลตอบแทนได้ดี
-ถ้าเป็นปัญหาเงินเฟ้อพุ่งแรง และเฟดขึ้นดอกเบี้ยสู้ไหว ตลาดหุ้นอาจปรับฐานไม่ถึง -30%  
 สรุปภาพรวมการปรับพอร์ต ‘Recession Playbook 2022’
สรุปมุมมอง
Macro Economic –  หลายตัวชี้วัดทางเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯเริ่มอ่อนแอลงอย่างชัดเจน
Earning –  Earnings Revision/Forecast ยังดี แต่สามารถปรับลงได้เร็วหากเศรษฐกิจถดถอย
Valuation –  ตลาดมี Valuation กลางๆ ยังไม่ถูกแบบ Deep Discount
Technical –  สัญญาณ “ยกธงขาว” เริ่มมีบ้าง แต่ไม่ได้ชัดเจน
Downside Analysis – Healthcare กระทบน้อยสุด
สรุปกลยุทธ์
‘ลดสินทรัพย์เสี่ยงในพอร์ต’ เตรียมรับมือสถานการณ์
‘ทองคำ’ และ ‘Bluechip Bond’ เป็น Safe Haven เพื่อหลบภัย
รับชมเพิ่มเติ่มผ่านรายการ FINNOMENA LIVE : ครั้งแรกก่อนใครในประเทศ! เผยกลยุทธ์การลงทุนครึ่งปีหลัง 2022 – FINNOMENA LIVE : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz5zPzIjKgs
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