New York is the safest big city in the nation, and our crime reductions have been steeper than any other big city’s.
Following a federal court decision rebuking New York City’s "stop-and-frisk" policy as racially discriminatory, Mayor Michael Bloomberg penned a Washington Post op-ed titled, "‘Stop and frisk’ is not racial profiling." He began the op-ed with a strong defense of the policy -- namely, that it works. "New York is the safest big city in the nation, and our crime reductions have been steeper than any other big city’s," Bloomberg wrote. He said the improvements are due in large part to the policy, in which police officers stop and search people they suspect might be involved in criminal activity. We won’t address the wisdom of the policy, which is the focus of intense debate. Instead, we’ll look at the question of whether "New York is the safest big city in the nation, and our crime reductions have been steeper than any other big city’s." The numbers: Is New York the safest big city? We turned to the most recent full-year data from the FBI, which used 2011 figures. Since a previous NYPD news release had compared New York City to both the 10 biggest cities and the 25 biggest cities, we will use those parameters here as well. In the charts below, violent crimes include murder and nonnegligent manslaughter; forcible rape; robbery; and aggravated assault. Property crimes include burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. The following chart lists the 25 largest cities in America, in descending order by population. The last two columns show where the city ranks by crime rate, with 1 being the lowest crime rate. City Population, 2011 Violent crimes, 2011 Property crimes, 2011 Total crimes Total crime rate per 100,000 pop. Rank by lowest crime rate among 10 biggest cities Rank by lowest crime rate among 25 biggest cities New York 8,244,910 51,209 140,457 191,666 2,324 1 1 Los Angeles 3,819,702 20,045 86,330 106,375 2,785 4 4 Chicago 2,707,120 NA 118,239 NA NA -- -- Houston 2,145,146 20,892 108,336 129,228 6,024 9 18 Philadelphia 1,536,471 18,268 59,617 77,885 5,069 7 12 Phoenix 1,469,471 8,089 64,479 72,548 4,937 5 10 San Antonio 1,359,758 7,038 80,868 87,906 6,465 10 20 San Diego 1,326,179 5,104 29,709 34,813 2,625 3 3 Dallas 1,223,229 8,330 61,859 70,189 5,738 8 17 San Jose 967,487 3,206 21,972 25,178 2,602 2 2 Jacksonville 827,908 5,182 36,113 41,295 4,987 6 11 Indianapolis 827,609 9,170 46,967 56,137 6,783 -- 21 Austin 820,611 3,471 42,250 45,721 5,572 -- 14 San Fran. 812,826 5,374 32,886 38,260 4,707 -- 8 Columbus 797,434 5,185 49,043 54,228 6,800 -- 22 Fort Worth 758,738 4,569 35,117 39,686 5,231 -- 13 Charlotte 751,087 4,787 32,008 36,795 4,899 -- 9 Detroit 706,585 15,245 43,818 59,063 8,359 -- 24 El Paso 665,568 2,858 16,312 19,170 2,880 -- 5 Memphis 652,050 10,336 42,355 52,691 8,081 -- 23 Boston 625,087 5,252 19,445 24,697 3,951 -- 6 Seattle 620,778 3,664 31,792 35,456 5,712 -- 15 Denver 619,968 3,708 22,495 26,203 4,227 -- 7 Baltimore 619,493 8,885 29,824 38,709 6,248 -- 19 Washington 617,996 6,985 28,312 35,297 5,712 -- 15 So by this measure -- violent crimes plus property crimes, adjusted for population -- New York City did record the lowest crime rate among the 10 biggest cities and also among the 25 biggest cities, making Bloomberg right. The numbers: A steeper crime reduction than any other big city? The FBI website has comparable crime data going back to 1995, so we looked at the change in each of these cities between 1995 and 2011. Once again, we list the 25 largest cities in America, in descending order by population. The last two columns show where the city ranks by reduction in the total crime rate between 1995 and 2011, with 1 being the biggest reduction in the crime rate. City Total crime rate per 100,000 pop., 1995 Total crime rate per 100,000 pop., 2011 Percent increase or decrease, 1995-2011 Rank by biggest crime decrease among 10 biggest cities Rank by biggest crime decrease among 25 biggest cities New York 6,076 2,324 - 62 percent 2 2 Los Angeles 7,680 2,785 - 64 percent 1 1 Chicago NA NA NA -- -- Houston 7,588 6,024 - 21 percent 9 22 Philadelphia 7,078 5,069 - 28 percent 8 19 Phoenix 10,880 4,937 - 55 percent 3 5 San Antonio 7,994 6,465 - 19 percent 10 23 San Diego 5,548 2,625 - 53 percent 4 8 Dallas 9,464 5,738 - 39 percent 7 14 San Jose 4,387 2,602 - 41 percent 6 13 Jacksonville 9,001 4,987 - 45 percent 5 11 Indianapolis 4,460 6,783 + 52 percent -- 24 Austin 8,132 5,572 - 31 percent -- 17 San Fran. 8,190 4,707 - 43 percent -- 12 Columbus 9,192 6,800 - 26 percent -- 20 Fort Worth 8,617 5,231 - 39 percent -- 14 Charlotte 9,576 4,899 - 49 percent -- 9 Detroit 1,1939 8,359 - 30 percent -- 18 El Paso 7,063 2,880 - 59 percent -- 3 Memphis 10,514 8,081 - 23 percent -- 21 Boston 9,493 3,951 - 58 percent -- 4 Seattle 10,482 5,712 - 46 percent -- 10 Denver 6,873 4,227 - 38 percent -- 15 Baltimore 13,323 6,248 - 53 percent -- 6 Washington 12,166 5,712 - 53 percent -- 6 By this measure, New York ranks second, by a narrow margin, to Los Angeles. Marc LaVorgna, a spokesman for Bloomberg, said that New York does rank first if you go back to 1993, when the city introduced its data-based policing approach, and he cited a 2011 book by University of California-Berkeley law professor Franklin E. Zimring, The City that Became Safe: New York's Lessons for Urban Crime and Its Control. We checked with Zimring, who agreed that Bloomberg is on safe ground with his claim. Zimring said the steepest declines occurred in the early 1990s and would not have been captured entirely in our data. New York City’s drop "is the steepest ever for a major U.S. city with a credible statistics program," Zimring said. Are such comparisons valid? So, judging by the numbers, Bloomberg is on target. But is he justified in making a multi-city comparison, or is that just comparing apples to oranges? While everyone does it, experts say it can be a blunt measurement. The FBI -- the source of the statistics Bloomberg used -- is one of the strongest voices warning that city-to-city comparisons are invalid. Here are a few of the factors that the FBI and other experts cite: • No two cities are alike. Bloomberg’s preferred ranking consists of cities (which would not include separately incorporated suburbs) rather than metropolitan areas (which would include suburbs). In addition, New York includes the primarily suburban borough of Staten Island. • Crime reporting rates can vary by city. Whether due to police habits or citizens' actions, different cities may not have the same level of diligence in reporting crimes, especially for the most numerous type of violent crime (aggravated assault) and the most numerous type of property crime (larceny-theft). • Using total crime as the measurement mixes both violent and property crime. The method Bloomberg used counts every violent crime and property crime equally, so every murder is statistically equivalent to every car theft. Changing the category being calculated can make a big difference. In 2011, New York City had a better overall crime rate than Los Angeles, but New York had a higher violent crime rate -- 621 violent crimes per 100,000 population, compared to 524 for Los Angeles. Still, despite some concerns about Bloomberg’s use of the statistics in this way, the criminologists we checked with agreed that the mayor has something to crow about. "One thing that is quite obvious is that almost every neighborhood in the five boroughs can be said to be on the way up, whereas cities like Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore and St. Louis have quite a few neighborhoods that can be termed dead or dying," said Eugene O’Donnell, criminologist at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice. James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University, agreed. "New York has done a great job," he said. "But urban one-upmanship does no one any good. Whether they’re first, second or third in the nation is splitting hairs." Our ruling Bloomberg said, "New York is the safest big city in the nation, and our crime reductions have been steeper than any other big city’s." Both the FBI and criminologists express concern about making this type of multi-city comparison, and other measures, such as violent crime, don’t put New York at the No. 1 slot. Still, the numbers do broadly back up his claim. We rate the claim Mostly True.
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