A series of by-elections for the House of Representatives will take place on July 28, four of which have Labor as the incumbent party, and in one of which the incumbent is the Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie.
Senator Cormann is correct. The last time an opposition lost a seat to a government at a by-election was in 1920 — almost 100 years ago. The previous MP in that by-election, Hugh Mahon, remains the only member in the history of the House of Representatives to be expelled. He recontested the seat and lost. However, whilst by-elections on average swing towards the opposition of the day, experts told Fact Check that there are a minority of historical cases where the government of the day has achieved a swing towards itself larger than those required to unseat Labor in Longman or Braddon. With this in mind, psephologist Kevin Bonham told Fact Check that Labor losing a seat would be "unusual, but not as unusual as the very poor historic win rate indicates".
Fact check: Has a government not won a seat from an opposition at a by-election in 100 years?
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