The justice sector forecast for 2015-2025 said that the prison population was likely to increase to 10,090 by 2025… Well that actually happened in less than one year after the report was released.
Kelvin Davis was referring to the Ministry of Justice’s Justice Sector Forecast, released in December 2015, which did forecast a rise in the prison population from 9150 in 2015 to 10,090 by 2025. It is also true that the prison population grew far faster than anticipated by the ministry. As of June 2017, the prison population is at 10,260 - higher than it was predicted to be in 2025. However, in December 2016, which was one year after the report was released - Mr Davis’s reference point - the prison population was 9914. This is slightly less than the 10,090 by December 2016 that Mr Davis claimed, yet it is still a considerable increase compared to the predicted rate of increase.
Fact or Fiction: How correct are corrections claims?
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