Crowds are expected to gather on April 28, 2016, to mark the 20th anniversary of the Port Arthur massacre.
Mr Howard's claim is not cut and dried. Data from the Australian Institute of Criminology shows the rate of homicide victims dying from a gunshot wound has dropped since the reforms came into force, but not consistently in every year. ABS data indicates the rate of assault by firearm causing death has also declined since the reforms, but not in every year. Data from the ABS also indicates the rate of suicide by firearm fell by 67 per cent from 2.1 deaths per 100,000 of the population in 1996 to 0.7 deaths in 2014. However, experts consulted by Fact Check said the impact of Mr Howard's reforms on those declines is debatable. Some research argues the reforms did not significantly influence firearm homicide rates or already falling rates of firearm suicide. Other research argues the reforms accelerated the rates of decline, with one study suggesting firearm suicides dropped by 74 per cent from the 1990-95 average following the buyback scheme. While it is accurate for Mr Howard to assert that gun-related homicides and suicides have dropped since his reforms were implemented, there is more to it. Studies on the impacts of his reforms have come to varied conclusions and experts contacted by Fact Check said other factors would have influenced the drops, even though the reforms are likely to form part of the story.
Fact check: Have firearm homicides and suicides dropped since Port Arthur as a result of John Howard's reforms?
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