10 Prognostic In adults with heart failure, which validated risk tools best identify patients with heart failure who are at increased risk of mortality in the short term (up to 1 year)?In adults with heart failure, which validated risk tools best identify patients with heart failure who are at increased risk of mortality in the short term (up to 1 year)? Area under the ROC curve (AUC or c-statistic) Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value Predicted risk versus observed risk (calibration) Other outcomes e.g., D statistic and Brier score Reclassification 4.2 Searching for evidence 4.2.1 Clinical literature search Systematic literature searches were undertaken to identify all published clinical evidence relevant to the review questions. Searches were undertaken according to the parameters stipulated within the NICE guidelines manual 2014.236 Databases were searched using relevant medical subject headings, free-text terms and study-type filters where appropriate. Where possible, searches were restricted to papers published in English. Studies published in languages other than English were not reviewed. All searches were conducted in Medline, Embase, and The Cochrane Library. Additional subject specific databases were used for the qualitative reviews: CINAHL and PsychINFO. All searches were updated on 06.12.17. No papers published after this date were considered. Chronic Heart Failure Methods NICE 2018. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights. ISBN: 978-1-4731-3093-7 Search strategies were quality assured by cross-checking reference lists of highly relevant papers, analysing search strategies in other systematic reviews, and asking committee members to highlight any additional studies. Searches were quality assured by a second information specialist before being run. 