The results will be stratified based on the setting in which the tools were validated in the study (admitted versus recently discharged versus community). Risk tool Validated risk tools identified in the literature Target condition Mortality (all-cause at up to 1 year) Statistical outcomes Area under the ROC curve (AUC or c-statistic) Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value Predicted risk versus observed risk (calibration) Other outcomes e.g., D statistic, R2 statistic and Brier score Reclassification Study types Prospective cohort studies Retrospective cohort studies will be included only if insufficient prospective cohort studies are identified Studies with less than 500 participants will be excluded. 10.4.3 Clinical evidence A search was conducted for prospective and retrospective cohorts assessing the prognostic accuracy of tools for assessing the risk of mortality at 1 year in people with heart failure. Fourteen studies The studies are summarised in Table 151, and the risk tools are summarised in Table 152 below. See also the study selection flow chart in Appendix C, coupled sensitivity and specificity forest plots in Appendix E, study evidence tables in Appendix F, and excluded studies list in Appendix I. Table 151: Summary of studies included in the review Study Risk tool Population Outcomes No of events (%) Study design Chronic Heart Failure Advanced heart failure and palliative care NICE 2018. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights. ISBN: 978-1-4731-3093-7 Study Risk tool Population Outcomes No of events (%) Study design Allen Seattle Heart Failure Model MAGGIC project heart failure risk score Ambulatory people with heart failure, 21 years of age or older. 