Significance (statistical) A result is deemed statistically significant if the probability of the result occurring by chance is less than 1 in 20 (p<0.05). Specificity The proportion of true negatives that are correctly identified as such. For example in diagnostic testing the specificity is the proportion of non-cases correctly diagnosed as non-cases. See related term Sensitivity . In terms of literature searching a highly specific search is generally narrow and aimed at picking up the key papers in a field and avoiding a wide range of papers. Stakeholder An organisation with an interest in a topic that NICE is developing a guideline or piece of public health guidance on. Organisations that register as stakeholders can comment on the draft scope and the draft guidance. Stakeholders may be: manufacturers of drugs or equipment national patient and carer organisations NHS organisations organisations representing healthcare professionals. State transition model See Markov model Systematic review A review in which evidence from scientific studies has been identified, appraised and synthesised in a methodical way according to predetermined criteria. It may include a meta-analysis. Time horizon The time span over which costs and health outcomes are considered in a Chronic Heart Failure Glossary NICE 2018. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights. ISBN: 978-1-4731-3093-7 Term Definition decision analysis or economic evaluation. Transition probability In a state transition model (Markov model), this is the probability of moving from one health state to another over a specific period of time. Treatment allocation Assigning a participant to a particular arm of a trial. Univariate Analysis which separately explores each variable in a data set. Utility In health economics, a 'utility' is the measure of the preference or value that an individual or society places upon a particular health state. 