All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights. ISBN: Risk tool No of studie s n Strata Risk of bias a Inconsistency b Indirectne ssc Imprecisi ond Sensitivi ty (%) Specifici ty (%) AUC(or C- statistic)/NPV/ PPV Calibration Quality AHEAD tool Y HIG H No inconsistency Unclear Not estimable AUC: 0.63 VERY LOW HeartMa te II Risk Score LVAD HIG H No inconsistency No indirectne ss Not estimable AUC: 0.59 MODERA TE score t mixed LO W No inconsistency No indirectne ss No imprecisio n Brier score: 0.082 HIGH Untitled risk tool (Lee H No inconsistency Serious No imprecisio n Observed vs predicted mortality for the 5 risk scores categories: LOW 1407 Acute LO W No inconsistency Serious Not estimable AUC: 0.76 MODERA TE (a) Risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST checklist items relating to risk of bias. (b) Inconsistency was assessed by inspecting the point estimate and confidence intervals of the sensitivity and specificity forest plots where this data was available, or the AUC where it was not. Particular attention was placed on the degree to which the confidence intervals overlapped. Whether the point estimate values were above or below 50% (diagnosis based on chance alone) and 70% (the threshold the committee set above which is acceptable to recommend a test) was also considered. Where there was little or no overlap between at least some of the confidence intervals and the values reported by the individual studies varied across 2 areas (for example, 50 70% and 70 100%) the Advanced heart failure and palliative care Chronic Heart Failure NICE 2018. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights. 