ISBN: Risk tool Description of tool Comments Cerebrovascular disease +10 Hepatic cirrhosis +35 An electronic version of the risk scoring system is available at: http://www.ccort.ca/CHFriskmodel.asp 10.4.4 Discrimination and calibration Table 153: Clinical evidence profile: risk tools for predicting mortality (all-cause at up to 1 year) Risk tool No of studie s n Strata Risk of bias a Inconsistency b Indirectne ssc Imprecisi ond Sensitivi ty (%) Specifici ty (%) AUC(or C- statistic)/NPV/ PPV Calibration Quality Seattle Heart Failure Model study includ separa At threshold 50% predicted mortality Outpatien t mixed LO W No inconsistency No indirectne ss Not estimable HIGH At threshold 20% predicted mortality Advanced heart failure and palliative care Chronic Heart Failure NICE 2018. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights. ISBN: Risk tool No of studie s n Strata Risk of bias a Inconsistency b Indirectne ssc Imprecisi ond Sensitivi ty (%) Specifici ty (%) AUC(or C- statistic)/NPV/ PPV Calibration Quality te cohort s) Outpatien t mixed LO W No inconsistency No indirectne ss Not estimable HIGH At any threshold Outpatien t mixed LO W Serious No indirectne ss Not estimable AUC: 0.66 Hosmer-Lemeshow: MODERA TE t mixed LO W Serious Unclear No imprecisio n : 0.99 LOW t mixed LO W Serious Unclear No imprecisio n t HFREF LO W Serious Serious Not estimable t HFREF LO W Serious No indirectne ss Not estimable MODERA TE t HFREF LO W Serious Serious No imprecisio n : 0.97 LOW t HFREF LO W Serious Serious No imprecisio n : 0.97 LOW t HFREF LO W Serious Serious No imprecisio n : 0.98 LOW Advanced heart failure and palliative care Chronic Heart Failure NICE 2018. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights. 