Per your request,  Attached is the slide we reviewed with Danny today.
It shows the value of contract terminations for NNG for the contract year of 1101/03 to 11/01/04 to be $145 million.
It also shows that the estimated market value is $95 million.
I think for planning purposes however, we would assume that we would contract for the full value of $145 million either through better pricing analytics, new business development projects and/ or Rate Case reallocation to captive customers.
The biggest risk would be the South end TFF of $12 million which we would have a hard time replacing at a $3 million level.
So, depending on your assumptions, 2003 and 2004 could be flat to 2002 margin of $439.1 million -   or, if you take into account  the TFF deterioration, it could be below by $8 to 10 million.
However, this deterioration will be offset by some of the new power plant projects  - in particular "Pleasant Hill"  which will bring an incremental $6 million in 2004.
I think you also have to assume that other business development projects will come in to help offset the downsides.
Sorry if I rambled a bit too much.
My view is that NNG will have margin targets for planning purposes flat with 2002.
Call me if you wish to discuss.

NNG Revenues/Margins for 2003 and 2004

Per your request, Attached is the slide we reviewed with Danny today.
It shows the value of contract terminations for NNG for the contract year of <NUMBER>/<NUMBER> to <NUMBER>/<NUMBER>/<NUMBER> to be <CUR><NUMBER> million.
It also shows that the estimated market value is <CUR><NUMBER> million.
I think for planning purposes however, we would assume that we would contract for the full value of <CUR><NUMBER> million either through better pricing analytics, new business development projects and/ or Rate Case reallocation to captive customers.
The biggest risk would be the South end TFF of <CUR><NUMBER> million which we would have a hard time replacing at a <CUR><NUMBER> million level.
So, depending on your assumptions, <NUMBER> and <NUMBER> could be flat to <NUMBER> margin of <CUR><NUMBER> million - or, if you take into account the TFF deterioration, it could be below by <CUR><NUMBER> to <NUMBER> million.
However, this deterioration will be offset by some of the new power plant projects - in particular "Pleasant Hill" which will bring an incremental <CUR><NUMBER> million in <NUMBER>.
I think you also have to assume that other business development projects will come in to help offset the downsides.
Sorry if I rambled a bit too much.
My view is that NNG will have margin targets for planning purposes flat with <NUMBER>.
Call me if you wish to discuss.
reviewed danny today biggest risk power plant projects reallocation captive customers value help offset downsides time replacing cur terminations nng contract million shows estimated