I have received questions about interpreting the ratio.
Let me use yesterday's closing price.
The merger probability is derived from a two scenario test, merger closure or merger non closure (there is also a competing offer scenario in reality).
Let's use a closing DYN price of $46.20 yesterday (note I had a typo), at the exchange ratio, (not taking into account timing and dividends), this yields a merged ENE price of $12.40 ($46.20 * .2685).
ENE closed at $10.00 yesterday.
Thus if the market thought there was complete certainty of merger, the prices would converge at $12.40.
Now comes the artful part, the non merger ENE price.
I included another tab (Merger) to sensitize this.
Say we pick an ENE price with no merger of $4.00.
Looking at a deterministic probability, one can look at the distance (difference) in dollars to calculate the probability.
For instance:  ENE merged           12.40 ENE close 14-Nov   10.00 ENE no merger         4.00  Probability of merger = (1-((12.40-10.00) / (12.40 - 4.00))) or 71.4%.
Said another way, there is a 71.4% chance of being worth $12.40 and a 28.6% chance of being worth $4.00, which yields a weighted price of $10.00  ($12.40 * 71.4%)+($4.00 * 28.6%).
I also included a $1 distressed ENE price and a $7 previously observed low end ENE price as scenarios.
Regards,

Exchange ratio prices and probability
I have received questions about interpreting the ratio.
Let me use yesterday's closing price.
The merger probability is derived from a two scenario test, merger closure or merger non closure (there is also a competing offer scenario in reality).
Let's use a closing DYN price of <CUR><NUMBER> yesterday (note I had a typo), at the exchange ratio, (not taking into account timing and dividends), this yields a merged ENE price of <CUR><NUMBER> (<CUR><NUMBER> * <NUMBER>).
ENE closed at <CUR><NUMBER> yesterday.
Thus if the market thought there was complete certainty of merger, the prices would converge at <CUR><NUMBER>.
Now comes the artful part, the non merger ENE price.
I included another tab (Merger) to sensitize this.
Say we pick an ENE price with no merger of <CUR><NUMBER>.
Looking at a deterministic probability, one can look at the distance (difference) in dollars to calculate the probability.
For instance: ENE merged <NUMBER> ENE close <NUMBER>-Nov <NUMBER> ENE no merger <NUMBER> Probability of merger = (<NUMBER>-((<NUMBER>-<NUMBER>) / (<NUMBER> - <NUMBER>))) or <NUMBER>%.
Said another way, there is a <NUMBER>% chance of being worth <CUR><NUMBER> and a <NUMBER>% chance of being worth <CUR><NUMBER>, which yields a weighted price of <CUR><NUMBER> (<CUR><NUMBER> * <NUMBER>%)+(<CUR><NUMBER> * <NUMBER>%).
I also included a <CUR><NUMBER> distressed ENE price and a <CUR><NUMBER> previously observed low end ENE price as scenarios.
Regards,
interpreting ratio let received questions account timing instance ene dyn close number nov price merger probability scenario reality worth note typo exchange