**African economies brace for a fully‐fledged Covid‐19 outbreak.**

After a slow start, the number of coronavirus cases in Africa is rising. By mid‐March African leaders were preparing for the outbreak to spread as doctors and experts fear it could only be a matter of time before the virus spirals out of control. Several African countries have been rolling out measures to prevent further contamination. Conferences, sporting events and concerts are being suspended one after the other, and flights suspended (*see p.22910*). Rapid testing and quarantines have been put in place to limit transmission. But concerns are growing about the continent\'s ability to handle the disease.

**South Africa**, already in a recession, declared a national state of emergency and banned travel to and from **China**,**Europe** and the **US.** "We are at this very early phase where it is critically important that we contain the virus," said Richard Friedland, head of South Africa\'s largest private healthcare provider Netcare.

"The key issue is with people living in informal settlements, in shacks... that (are) very difficult to self‐isolate," he told *AFP (13/3),* warning that a spread to such areas could be "catastrophic" for the continent.

Though South Africa has a young population, there are millions who are vulnerable as HIV sufferers or have been weakened by malnutrition. The healthcare system has long suffered an acute lack of resources and critical care is extremely limited.

"We are going to be hit badly," said **Kenya**\'s tourism minister Najib Balala, who has set aside Kenyan Shillings 500m (US\$4.9m) for a "post‐coronavirus" marketing campaign. By March 15th three people were confirmed to have tested positive for the virus in Kenya.

The World Health Organisation (**WHO**) and the African Union\'s (**AU**) Centres for Disease Control have trained health workers and equipped more than 40 laboratories to test for the virus. However, many countries on the continent are already crippled by ailing medical facilities and struggle to deliver basic healthcare. "The system itself is overstretched and inadequate to deal with a coronavirus epidemic," said **Zimbabwean** doctor Norman Matara. He told *AFP* there were only eight functioning intensive care and two isolation units in the whole of Zimbabwe.

"I call on all my African colleagues to act together," tweeted **Senegal**\'s President Macky Sall on March 13th. "Africa must not turn into a new hotbed for the illness." At the end of February, a sum of over CFA francs 1bn (US\$1.7m) has been placed in reserve by the Senegalese state to meet the expenditure involved in monitoring and warning against Covid‐19.

As the coronavirus spreads across Africa, countries are taking stronger measures to curb its spread. The restrictions may contain the virus but will likely have a deep impact on the continent\'s economies.

With several African governments closing borders, cancelling flights and enforcing strict quarantine requirements to curb the spread of the virus, experts say there will be consequences for the continent\'s economy. The United Nations (**UN**) said it now estimates Africa\'s GDP rate will fall from 3.2% to 1.8% in 2020.

"This is going to deal a very severe blow to growth," said Vera Songwe, secretary‐general of the UN Economic Commission for Africa (**ECA**), "even though the numbers of cases on the continent are quite small. ... But then when you look at the economics, I think that is where the big story is for Africa. We are being severely affected."

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In **Egypt,** schools and universities were suspended for two weeks starting March 15th. President Sisi, during a cabinet meeting, also earmarked Egyptian pounds 100bn (around US\$6.4bn) to finance "the comprehensive plan to deal with any possible repercussions from the new coronavirus", according to a presidency Facebook statement on March 14th. Egypt had so far announced over 93 confirmed Covid‐19 cases and two deaths

**Ghana**\'s president, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo‐Addo has directed the minister for finance, to make available the cedi equivalent of US\$100m to enhance Ghana\'s coronavirus preparedness and response plan. This amount is to fund expansion of infrastructure, purchase of materials and equipment, and public education, *africabusinesscommunities.com* reported *13/3)*.

In **Libya**, the UN‐brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) declared a state of emergency in Libya, announcing several measures to curb Covid‐19. In a press conference on March 14th GNA head Fayez Sarraj allocated Dinars 500,000,000 (\$360,510,800) to face the virus, the privately owned *Al‐Wasat* website reported. The GNA head announced the formation of a crisis cell to monitor the virus, and also announced the closure of "all land and airports" for three weeks starting March 16th. However, the website of the privately owned 218 TV criticised Sarraj\'s announcements on March 15th, describing the measures announced as "very late". The website noted that the doctors' syndicate had reported that it lacks resources to face the virus.

The island nation of **Mauritius**, whose economy depends on tourism and financial services, said it was seeking to mitigate the effects of the virus by offering liquidity to banks to support struggling firms and cutting the cash reserve requirements for banks. On the health front, the minister announced that Rupees 208m (approx US\$ 5.8m) has been made available to the Ministry of Health and Wellness for the acquisition of medical equipment, *PANA* reported (*15/3*). Furthermore, the finance minister announced that all work permits for foreigners expiring in 2020 will be extended automatically up to December 31st 2021. "To minimise human contacts, the government will promote the Work at Home Scheme and will set up an e‐Government Digital Bureau for the provision of public services through electronic means," he said.

In **Morocco**, the Interior Ministry ordered cafes, restaurants, cinema theatres, event halls, sporting venues and hammams to close their doors as of March 16th to stem the outbreak of the virus, official news agency *MAP* reported. Morocco had previously halted all flights to and from its territory, cancelled a number of festivals and suspended classes at educational facilities. **Algeria** announced plans to suspend flights and ships to and from Europe over fears of the spread of the virus. The government had earlier suspended all air and sea trips to and from **France** starting March 17th. The Algerian and **Tunisian** authorities also agreed on March 15th to suspend land travel of tourist buses at the nine border posts connecting both countries.

Mid‐month Kenya shut its border to foreigners, while Ghana banned entry to anyone who visited a country with the coronavirus in the previous two weeks. Economists say these restrictions and others around the world will disrupt global supply chains and decrease travel, which in turn should cause oil prices to drop. Songwe said African oil exporters will feel the impact.

"If you\'re a country like **Nigeria**, which is a net oil exporter --- one, we\'re demanding less oil from you, but secondly the amount of oil that we\'re demanding from you has dropped \[in price\]. We\'ve estimated that Nigeria could lose almost \$19bn if the trend continues and that\'s a big shock to Nigeria\'s economy, which was already growing at quite a low rate of 2.8%."

Nigeria\'s minister of finance, budget, and national planning, Zainab Ahmed, said on March 11th that the worldwide outbreak of Covid‐19 would negatively affect the country\'s economy as it puts severe strain on the federal government\'s budget. Echoing the statements of Nigerian leaders for decades, *PANA* (*11/3*) reported Ms Ahmed as saying that with the attendant effects of the spread of the virus, the time had come for Nigeria to begin to live a life without oil.

In order for Africa to meet its global targets under the UN\'s Sustainable Development Goals, economists say Africa must grow at a minimum of 8%. Stephen Karingi, the director of the trade division at the UN\'s ECA, told *VOA* that the impact on Africa\'s economy and health systems would be devastating.

"As things stand now the 3.2% growth has actually been insignificant when it comes to meeting these SDG goals," he said. "That\'s the point that we want to make. In other words, we are going to see an increase in the number of people who are actually poor or below the poverty line."

*The EastAfrican* (*14/3*) commented that in East Africa with economies that are heavily dependent on agriculture, the region needs to act in concert by setting up economic assessment teams that will design and roll out stimulus packages across the region before it is too late.

The chairman of Alibaba Group, Jack Ma, is to distribute 10,000‐20,000 coronavirus testing kits and more than 100,000 masks to every African country. In addition, the support package includes distribution of guideline books developed recently on how to treat patients with the virus.

Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, said "With Covid‐19 officially declared a pandemic, all countries in Africa must act. "Every country can still change the course of this pandemic by scaling up their emergency preparedness or response.

"Cases may still be low in Africa and we can keep it that way with robust all‐of‐government actions to fight the new coronavirus."

According to her, containment remains the most appropriate strategy for African countries. (*Sources as referenced in text*)
