title: Designing an Inventory Demand Forecast System
body: <p>Overstocked and understocked parts are becoming a problem for one of my clients. Purchase orders are submitted ~every two weeks. Delivery takes 1-2 weeks. My client keeps track of inventory records with a .NET-based system I built.</p>
  
  <p>I want to enhance the inventory management system to continually advise on inventory levels by forecasting inventory demand and suggesting optimal purchase orders. I've read plenty of what I could find on forecasting algorithms, but I need help with designing a good algorithm (or weighting several algorithms) for an accurate forecast.</p>
  
  <p>Understocked items carry a greater cost than overstocked items to this client, since most parts will eventually be used, but cash could have been used for something else.</p>
  
  <p>It would be nice to represent demand with incrementing risk, which leans toward an initial Monte Carlo implementation.</p>
  
  <p>How should I approach this problem? What are good/standard algorithms to use for this type of problem? Are there any good, free libraries for tackling the inventory demand problem?</p>