title: Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to predict Stock Prices
body: <p>Given a set of data very similar to the <a href="http://caps.fool.com/TickerRankings.aspx?filter=7&amp;sortcol=38&amp;sortdir=1" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Motley Fool CAPS system</a>, where individual users enter BUY and SELL recommendations on various equities.  What I would like to do is show each recommendation and I guess some how rate (1-5) as to whether it was good predictor&lt;5> (ie. correlation coefficient = 1) of the future stock price (or eps or whatever) or a horrible predictor (ie. correlation coefficient = -1) or somewhere in between.</p>
  
  <p>Each recommendation is tagged to a particular user, so that can be tracked over time.  I can also track market direction (bullish / bearish) based off of something like sp500 price.  The components I think that would make sense in the model would be:</p>
  
  <pre><code>user
  direction (long/short)
  market direction
  sector of stock
  </code></pre>
  
  <p>The thought is that some users are better in bull markets than bear (and vice versa), and some are better at shorts than longs- and then a combination the above.  I can automatically tag the market direction and sector (based off the market at the time and the equity being recommended).</p>
  
  <p>The thought is that I could present a series of screens and allow me to rank each individual recommendation by displaying available data absolute, market and sector out performance for a specific time period out. I would follow a detailed list for ranking the stocks so that the ranking is as objective as possible.  My assumption is that a single user is right no more than 57% of the time - but who knows.</p>
  
  <p>I could load the system and say "Lets rank the recommendation as a predictor of stock value 90 days forward"; and that would represent a very explicit set of rankings.</p>
  
  <p>NOW here is the crux - I want to create some sort of machine learning algorithm that can identify patterns over a series of time so that as recommendations stream into the application we maintain a ranking of that stock (ie. similar to correlation coefficient) as to the likelihood of that recommendation (in addition to the past series of recommendations ) will affect the price.</p>
  
  <p>Now here is the super crux.  I have never taken an AI class / read an AI book / never mind specific to machine learning.  So I cam looking for guidance - sample or description of a similar system I could adapt.  Place to look for info or any general help. Or even push me in the right direction to get started...</p>
  
  <p>My hope is to implement this with F# and be able to impress my friends with a new skill set in F# with an implementation of machine learning and potentially something (application / source) I can include in a tech portfolio or blog space;</p>
  
  <p>Thank you for any advice in advance.</p>