Loosely based on Realclearpolitics polls.
<div class="legend" style="direction:ltr;line-height:23px;"><div class="legend-content" style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;box-sizing:border-box;width:34px;height:23px;overflow:hidden;font-size:15px;border:thin solid #333;background:#3333FF;color:#202122;text-align:center;"> </div> Safe D (161)</div>
<div class="legend" style="direction:ltr;line-height:23px;"><div class="legend-content" style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;box-sizing:border-box;width:34px;height:23px;overflow:hidden;font-size:15px;border:thin solid #333;background:#8080FF;color:#202122;text-align:center;"> </div> Lean D (91)</div>
<div class="legend" style="direction:ltr;line-height:23px;"><div class="legend-content" style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;box-sizing:border-box;width:34px;height:23px;overflow:hidden;font-size:15px;border:thin solid #333;background:#CD4DCD;color:#202122;text-align:center;"> </div> Tossup (111)</div>
<div class="legend" style="direction:ltr;line-height:23px;"><div class="legend-content" style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;box-sizing:border-box;width:34px;height:23px;overflow:hidden;font-size:15px;border:thin solid #333;background:#FF8080;color:#202122;text-align:center;"> </div> Lean R (99)</div>
<div class="legend" style="direction:ltr;line-height:23px;"><div class="legend-content" style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;box-sizing:border-box;width:34px;height:23px;overflow:hidden;font-size:15px;border:thin solid #333;background:#FF3333;color:#202122;text-align:center;"> </div> Safe R (83)</div>
<p>Using this model, we can expect Clinton to receive anywhere between 200 and 462 electoral votes, and Trump anywhere between 84 and 384.
</p><p>For Trump to win, he would need to win all Safe R, Lean R, and Tossup, as well as at least one Lean D with 5 electoral votes or more. For Clinton to win, she would need to win all Safe D, and Lean D.
</p><p>Independent candidate Evan McMullin may also receive up to 6 electoral votes due to tossup in Utah.
</p>
One possible way for no candidates to reach 270 to occur is for Trump to win AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, and WY (264); Clinton to win CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, and WI (268); and McMullin to win UT (6). This would force the House of Representatives to vote on a candidate, between Clinton, Trump, and McMullin.
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Own work. Derived from <a href="//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege2016.svg" title="File:ElectoralCollege2016.svg">File:ElectoralCollege2016.svg</a>.