Include of those risk factor that was found in univariate analysis into the model of logistic regression, with the stepwise procedure, we found that the model of logistic regression that included PRISM II score at admission, have corrected acidosis metabolic status and combined more than 2 vaso - actives agent at admission were good calibrate in our population with the Goodfitness test of Hosmer and Lemeshow, 5df, p >0, 05 and AUC under ROC curve = 0, 968.