N Engl J Med 373 (9): 795 - 807, 2015. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1506816 Prognosis for HIV Infection Risk of AIDS, death, or both is predicted by the CD4 count in the short term Plasma HIV RNA level in the longer term For every 3-fold (0.5 log 10) increase in viral load, mortality over the next 2 to 3 years increases about 50%.