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[Assistant] Yep, uhm, I can see them right at 9 wins again. I'm laying off of this, but I lean over. I don't see them more than 9.


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[Assistant] Alright, we're all in on Gino Smith for the next year. That is going to be our show today. Thanks for rocking with us. Make sure you join us on Monday at 1pm for more NFL offseason coverage. Remember to like, comment, subscribe on our YouTube page for anyone listening to audio only.


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[Assistant] Download, follow, leave a five star review, tell your friends to listen and watch the pod, and we'll see you on Monday. Have a good weekend.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it was boring. I mean, I like John Rahm a lot, but just like Will was saying before we went on the air to like see that suspense like down the last five or six holes. It's like, I feel like it's supposed to happen every year and we just didn't get it this year in the Masters. It's kind of a bummer.


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[Assistant] Alright, I'm gonna go with one that everyone on the internet should know very well. It's the Sound of Silence by Paul Simon. It's kinda like, uh, I would say like a TikTok meme, like, hello darkness, my old friend, because this safety group is bad.


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[Assistant] It's not good. Uhm, it's got Brian Branch and then not much else. Uh, I think if, if you look at uh, Lance Zerline of NFL.com, he did the same article. He had Safes as the worst group.


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[Assistant] Daniel Jeremiah just tweeted out, I think last week or a few days ago, safety group paper thin. So that was kind of the sadness, um, that I felt watching these safeties.


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[Assistant] It's an important position and this is just not the year to pick a safety beyond Bryan Branch from Alabama.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's bad, and I think we lost Brinson, which is very unusual. It's usually me that is...


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[Assistant] Oh, I, I lost you for a second, but I think, I think linebackers were good.


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[Assistant] So I went with I Am a Man of Constant Sorrow. It's by the Soggy Bottom Boys, which are not a real group. Uhm, it's from the movie Oh Brother, Where Art Thou, which is uhm,


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[Assistant] Early 2000s George Clooney, you know the movie as well, uhm, it is a, uhm,


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[Assistant] A movie that's kind of based on Homer's Odyssey, but it's set like in like the late 1800s or early 1900s South. Um, and I went with this song. I'm a man of constant sorrow because not that I am a man of constant sorrow, but I love, but I love, I love watching linebackers. I love scouting linebackers.


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[Assistant] Kinda made me a man of constant sorrow because there's not a lot of good ones. I love Jack Campbell from Iowa.


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[Assistant] I'm not a big fan of Trenton Simpson from Clemson. Beyond that, you're kind of grasping at straws to find, uhm,


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[Assistant] A top tier linebacker in this class. So that's just the constant sorrow I had watching trying to find elite level linebackers. I just couldn't do it in this class.


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[Assistant] Okay, so I went with Welcome to Paradise by Green Day, which is a classic from the Dookie album.


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[Assistant] I didn't, I mean, I obviously just with the title, welcome to paradise. It's obviously an upbeat song. I didn't rank interior offensive line crazy high, but it felt like being a draft analyst the last couple of years.


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[Assistant] The Interior Offensive Line Group has been pretty bad. And this year, I like a lot of these players. I like Osiris Torrance, John Michael Schmitz from Minnesota, Joe Titman from Wisconsin at center, uhm,


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[Assistant] There's a lot of good interior offensive linemen, so it kind of felt like Paradise, me watching this, because I think it's still a very important position, there's so many good interior pass rushers, you gotta have good interior offensive linemen, especially at the top, I think in this group, the song Welcome to Paradise, and I had to kind of look it up, apparently it is kind of like realizing that everything


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[Assistant] My first was a single, it was Montel Jordan, this is how we do it, I think.


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[Assistant] Looking at my list, I realize I did not send in Offensive Tackle, so Will saved us there, and I think that is a really good one. I'm not familiar with that song, but from the title I think it's perfect.


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[Assistant] And that ex- what you just sang is my exact reason for picking that because we're always trying to say running backs don't matter, draft them later, but this is a really, really good running back class beyond just B. Jen Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. There's Tajay Spears, there's Tank Bigsby from Auburn, Izzy Abanacana from


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[Assistant] Uhm, the Oklahoma running back, Eric Gray, Kenny McIntosh from Georgia. It's a really good group. So watching it, uh, this entire running back class in its entirety, I was like, man, this is probably one of the best classes that we've had in a long time. And amidst all of this talk that you don't really need running backs, there's no value, blah, blah, blah.


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[Assistant] The running backs are, I think, triumphantly saying that we ain't go nowhere. So that's why- We're bad boys for life.


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[Assistant] Oh yeaah, I saw a video about this. It was something, they're called Pearl Jam for a really weird reason. I'm totally blanking.


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[Assistant] I wouldn't say way far in front, but like consensus top running back. There might be a few teams out there that like Jameer Gibbs a little more.


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[Assistant] What I would say too about this is that to that point, for as much as I'm like anti running backs going in the first round, I think Will, what you just said makes sense. Same, I am too.


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[Assistant] A team is going to pick BJN Robinson in the first round. We're in, regardless of which team it is, we're going to hear, and I'll kind of feel this way, like, hey, you know, they could have gone a different position. It's more valuable.


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[Assistant] But with Bijan Robinson, you know you're getting an instant impact guy immediately. A lot of the other positions, it's, they're developmental, they're not fully matured yet, they need to be more polished. With Bijan, you're getting an instant playmaker who's in his prime at like 21, 22 years old.


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[Assistant] So if you are the Seahawks and you're like, Hey, we do want to run the ball a lot. We like Gino, but we don't really want him throwing it 40, 45 times a game.


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[Assistant] It wouldn't be the worst idea to pick Bijan Robinson because he's that good.


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[Assistant] I just feel a little differently that I think the depth of this class is still very good behind.


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[Assistant] They just cycle through running backs anyway, so it's definitely better.


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[Assistant] I think it's easy for us as analysts to think beyond the first contract, five, six years down the road, will they sign a second deal? I think a lot of the GMs are like, uh, I need to win right now. I can't worry about what's going to happen in six years. And if you're the chargers and you're like, we're not going to pay Eckler.


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[Assistant] You still have Justin Herbert not making a lot of money on that rookie deal. If you can plug in someone like BJN Robinson for the next two or three years, that's like an elite level running back with Justin Herbert being young. I think most GMs will sign up for that any day. And that's why BJN Robinson, a part of why I think he'll still be a first round pick.


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[Assistant] Tight ends. Will, do you want to go here? I'm, I think you already mentioned your group and then I can follow or. I think you're already.


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[Assistant] Okay, so I don't like, I was looking at the lyrics and I'm like, I don't really understand the lyrics fully as it ties to the Tiden class. It's just going off the name in general. Rebellion is, yeah, and the vibes of it.


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[Assistant] I said it earlier about I think off interior offensive linemen.


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[Assistant] The tight end classes of late outside of Kyle Pitts have been really bad, like the last two or three years.


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[Assistant] This tight end class is kind of rebelling against that idea that tight ends are just not going to be good coming into the NFL as a class in general with Dalton Kincaid and Sam Laporta and Michael Mayer and Darnell Washington. It is a really top heavy class. Like there's good top ten, top end talent and there's super


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[Assistant] Uh, depth in this class. So it's just a rebellion over the last couple of years that have been bad at the trade on spot.


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[Assistant] You had that Kenny Lagan song, but then you used it. Oh crap, I used it for the linebackers, right.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's really good. And let's stay on the Kenny Loggins theme with the song, I'm Alright. And this is another one that's just straight up from the title.


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[Assistant] Patty Shack, uh, Anthem, um, it's just, I'm alright, like at the, it's a deep class, but if we were talking about the wide receivers, if we're looking at the maybe first round guys we had yesterday, Jim Nagy, or, uh, yeah, uh,


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[Assistant] He tweeted that he's spoken to a lot of teams and they only have one first round grade on a wide receiver and that is Jackson Smith and Jigba from Ohio State. Who knows if that's just lying season or that's legitimate.


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[Assistant] I think it's an alright wide receiver class. It's not terrible. I think early on there was some narrative that it was bad, it was not good, but I think it was Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnston.


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[Assistant] Some later-ish guys like Jonathan Mingo from Ole Miss, Rashid Wright from SMU, Jayden Reed from Michigan State. It's an all right class. We've had, kinda gotten spoiled at the wide receiver.


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[Assistant] Uhm, spot over the last couple drafts with Jamar Chase, uhm, some of the guys Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave last season. It's just an all right class. It's not terrible. There will be good players from this group, but not amazing like we've had over the last couple years.


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[Assistant] He's like the only one, like Zephyr is short, Josh Downs is short, uh, Smith the Jigbo has just cracked the six foot threshold, I think, or he was just a little bit above it. So yes, this is definitely a smaller list as a whole, collectively, a smaller and lighter wide receiver class, especially at the top that we've had in a while.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I could see it, uh, ultimately turning out to be a lot like the 2019 class that only saw Marquise Brown go in the first round. He was the only receiver picked in that first round at wide receiver. And then all the really good wide receivers went in round two with, or round three, DK, AJ Brown, Debo Samuel, Terry McClure, and guys that were like,


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[Assistant] Leaning toward not seeing this, you know, huge glut of receivers be picked in the first round.


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[Assistant] So I was gonna go a little more new age, uhm, something that I'm assuming Billy would know and not, you know, we're talking about 80s. Uhm, I went with Pursuit of Happiness by Kid Cudi. It's one of my favorite songs. Uhm,


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[Assistant] It feels like the quarterback, and this is more about the teams picking the quarterbacks, that


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[Assistant] They are after the pursuit of happiness. The Panthers, the Texans, the Colts, they have been down on the quarterback position.


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[Assistant] It's been so bad post Deshaun Watson for that organization as a whole and the quarterback spot. They're probably going to pick a quarterback, I think, at two. The Colts have just been cycling through all these veterans. Jim Ursay really wants one.


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[Assistant] So they're after this pursuit of being like the other top tier teams in the NFL with a young quarterback that they drafted that's a franchise guy, not even a Ryan Tannehill if the Titans are kind of in the mix. So that was more about, uhm, the teams that are probably going to land these quarterbacks as opposed to the quarterback prospects themselves.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'll be quick. Uh, it's We Are Young by Fawn and Janelle Monae. Uh, it's a song.


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[Assistant] Uh, that it's all about being, being young, making some maybe not great decisions when we're young. I think Jalen Carter's entire pre-draft process would kind of fall into that category. And just the fact that he truly is young. Kalijah Kansy is young. He's an underclassman. There's a lot of younger kind of


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[Assistant] Unpolished or nonfinished products at the defensive tackle group in this class that still need to learn because they are figuratively and literally young players in terms of their development and what they have to do to become good players in the NFL.


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[Assistant] This is a popular song, and this is just, this is like from the main chorus that I am a rock, I am an island. Yes, Chess. Yes, Chess.


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[Assistant] Uhm, because I think it's a rock solid class and a lot of these offensive tackles.


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[Assistant] Play on an island, um, Paris Johnson is probably going to be a top 10 pick. I think when you're doing mock drafts and now Brinson is in the mock draft world, which is fun to see this time of year, um, you're going to be putting Paris Johnson like to the Raiders at seven, uh, to the


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[Assistant] Bears at nine, he can play on an island. I love Peter Skowronski. Anton Harrison from Oklahoma is really good.


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[Assistant] Broderick Jones is that high upside player who's not totally developed yet, but could be like an all pro type in a couple years. If you need an offensive tackle, it's maybe not like, there's not a Tristan Wirfs in this class, but I really like it. It's just a rock solid group. So all these offensive linemen, especially the top could be.


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[Assistant] Kind of singing this song as their theme as well as I just did a few seconds ago.


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[Assistant] I think Steve Perry is one of the most underrated singers, like vocal, like singers of all time. He should get more pub, more...


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[Assistant] Um, publicity or I guess notoriety on those lists. And this is because the cornerback class is really any way you want it. Do you want a tall, long corner? Do you want a Joey Porter? Do you want a smaller quarterback?


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[Assistant] Devin Witherspoon isn't quite as big. Deontay Banks from Maryland isn't quite as big. It's a really, really good class. So any way you want it, if you pick them in the first round, second round, third round, Julius Brentz from Kansas State isn't


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[Assistant] Getting a ton of hype, although it does seem to be building a little bit. His buzz, tested through the roof, uh, was an amazing athlete, was great at Kansas State. There's so many corners in this class. Any way you want it, you can get a good one. Spend probably a first through third round pick on the position and you'll get a good one.


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[Assistant] I'm going with back to back by Drake, uh, just because last year when I did this article, I picked edge rushers as the best, um, position group and they're going back to back. I think it is a very, very good edge rusher group again, not just Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson.


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[Assistant] Uh, Felix Andudique Uzama from Kansas, uh, from Kansas State is super good. Um, I even like Andre Carter from army, like on the second or in the second or, uh,


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[Assistant] Or the third round, Nolan Smith from Georgia tested through the roof. We didn't get to see him a lot because he tore his pack, um, in season, but I think he could be like that Hassan Reddick type who's smaller, but very, very good in time.


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[Assistant] It's just another quality ad, very quality edge rusher group, which makes sense. I mean, every team in college throws it like 50 times a game. You need those pass rushers to kind of counteract those high powered offenses. So if you need an edge rusher, this again, like it was last year with Trevon Walker and Aiden Hutchinson, um, the class to pick an edge rusher.


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[Assistant] And it's such a, uh, important position. It's a premium spot today. It's not easy to find those double digit sack guys, but there are, I mean, I'm not going to say all the top guys are going to become like all pros, but.


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[Assistant] Yes, I think teams in that one in doubt situation, round ones, two and three, they're like, oh, we don't really know what we're going to do here or we have close grades. They're probably going to lean edge rusher because that position matters. There's so many good players at that position in this draft.


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[Assistant] While this is technically CBS's daily NFL podcast, they're also like it's daily because of the first with the first pick podcast.


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[Assistant] He's a college football Hall of Famer. Right. So I mean, that's a, I mean, that's there's Hall of Fame, Ring of Honor, whatever it is.


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[Assistant] College football hall of fame and then the pro football hall of fame. Like if you're in one of those, one of those two big ones, you are.


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[Assistant] Sorry, I wasn't paying attention. I was looking, uh, I was actually trying to stream the Masters on cbsports.com. What'd you ask me?


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[Assistant] Patrick Reed, Cameron Young, Brooks Kepka, Freddie Couples, all the names at the top of the leaderboard right now in the afternoon tee times haven't even started. Incredible start to the greatest golf tournament in the world and you can watch it.


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[Assistant] You can stream it on cbsports.com. You can check out the featured groups there. And of course on CBS this weekend, Jim Nance, who just called his final, final four, an emotional time.


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[Assistant] He's on like, it's the greatest heater of all time. And check out Matt Norland's interview with him about that. He is also going to be, of course, calling the Masters this weekend on CBS. And if you need


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[Assistant] Up to the minute coverage of the Masters. CBS Sports HQ has you covered. Kyle Porter on site there. The Masters, I mean, if you've never been, it's the most incredible place in the entire world. I would give.


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[Assistant] I would do weird, weird dark things to, uh, just to play there. I mean, you can't imagine what I'd give up to like be a member there. I mean, my God.


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[Assistant] Yes, uh, check out full coverage of the Masters, cbsports.com, CBS Sports HQ, and of course, on the mothership.


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[Assistant] CBS all week and long. Gymnats moving day and then the final, what it promises to be a final incredible round at the 2023 Masters.


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[Assistant] Ridiculous. Like, I'm pretty sure each media member gets their own, like, wooden locker for, like, putting stuff in. Uh, R.M. Cal Porter has played Augusta twice the day after the Masters ended because he won the lottery as CBS's number one correspondent there.


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[Assistant] He is actually through ten now. Alright, it stays at plus three and a half. So he's taking the turn.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I actually had the uhm, what I did, and by the way, we're talking about all the AFC nor AFC divisions today on this podcast. If you want to read my written analysis of every AFC division, it is live, every single one of them is live on cbssupports.com. You can go check those out. Yes, I'm writing again. I'm confused by it as well. What should I do?


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[Assistant] Actually the bingo's over is my best bet and it's a little tricky because I wouldn't want to bet it now except for the fact that I think


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[Assistant] Like, the Lamar Jackson thing matters so much for this whole division. Because if Lamar Jackson, we see the Ravens, like, we'll talk about this when we talk about the Ravens, but like, if you're, you're, you're betting on this division,


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[Assistant] Because I don't, I don't, I don't think this won't want to go up to 12 for the Bengals. That's a lot. Like that's a really high number. But if they're getting two games against the Ravens without Lamar Jackson.


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[Assistant] And depending on what the, you know, depending where he goes to Colts, they get the fourth pick, they probably take a quarterback. There's a lot of variables here. If Lamar Jackson stays, all these numbers probably just sit even. Maybe the Ravens go up a little bit, Browns come down half a game, something like that.


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[Assistant] But I think the Bengals are by far and away the best team in this division with the least question marks. And even though they lost their two safeties in Von Bell and Jesse Bates, as Breeches pointed out, they have his boy Dax who's going to be developing further. And if you take the.


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[Assistant] Sort of what they, what they gained and what they lost in terms of the safeties versus getting Orlando Brown and getting a legitimate left tackle to protect Joe Burrow and to keep him from being, he's been the MOSAC quarterback.


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[Assistant] I think the only two guys, even Russell Wilson sacked over 90 times the last two years. If you can get Orlando Brown in there to protect Joe burrow and Joe burrow doesn't deal with, you know, coming off an ACL like last year, coming off the.


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[Assistant] The appendix surgery, because it wouldn't even appendicitis, like two years ago, ACL last year, appendicitis. They should start fast.


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[Assistant] And this is a team that's going to win 12 plus games in a 17 game season if Joe Burrow is healthy coming into the year.


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[Assistant] You know, it's, um, I'm not sure, uh, we made it. It's weird. So we kind of have to, I guess, update the number. I don't know where the nine and a half is from, but on Cedars, they've actually moved it down to eight and a half. Except


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[Assistant] I think the under, so when I wrote the article on eight and a half, and I guess, I mean, similar setups, cause you're talking about if you go under nine and a half minus one 35, that's, I would rather go.


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[Assistant] You know, we don't know what he's going to look like. I thought he improved a little bit incrementally when he played last year, but there's not a, I mean.


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[Assistant] He was terrible his first game. There's, you know, there's just, it's a tough division.


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[Assistant] Don't, I don't, I want, I would want to take the under eight and a half plus one 45 if I was doing anything right now because that's a great plus number. You're getting almost one and a half to one and you have this.


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[Assistant] You know, this team where like, so I'm watching his 20s ACL twice in his career, once in college and once in the NFL. It wouldn't be shocking if, you know, he suffered like, you know, he hasn't played a ton of football. It's, that's just one of those things where if he suffered an injury in the, in the off season or the preseason, I don't think it would be entirely shocking. They have to play the NFC West.


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[Assistant] You know, give and takes on, on whether those are good or bad, but uhm, you know, I, I don't, I think I would lean towards the under with the bounds for sure.


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[Assistant] I would just say too, if you're breach, if you're, if you feel that way, if you're breach, you should really go over nine and a half plus one 15 versus going over eight and a half minus one 75 just for the, like, if you're that confident in the Browns being good.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm going over on the, uh, on the series as well. I think it's just a.


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[Assistant] Like it's sort of a Mike Tomlin bet here where you, you kind of feel good that he's going to get them to nine and eight or better.


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[Assistant] And if Kenny Pickett proves that the offensive line is better, you know, you a little more rapport with the weapons and you don't have this controversy with Mitchell Trubisky coming into the year. I like the uh, sealers over.


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[Assistant] They got the Raiders, Patriots, and Packers, which, you know, you're talking about three teams with a lot of quarterback controversy this off season, whether it's Mac Jones being traded, uh, Aaron Rodgers possibly getting dealt or, you know, the Derek Carter, Jimmy G swap. That's, it's just, I mean, that's three good draws relative to the off season cycle.


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[Assistant] I really think it depends, like, you just have to, if you want to bet on the Ravens, and I agree with you, I'm not doing anything with it.


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[Assistant] But if you want to bet with the Ravens, you have to decide. Do you, you just take a stand? Do you think Lamar Jackson is coming back and playing week one? Or do you think he will be traded or hold out for up to 10 weeks? And if you think the first thing, the former, you need to take the over at eight and a half minus 120 because it's good value right now because it's baked in that they don't really know if Lamar is going to play. If you believe the latter that he's either dealt or that he holds out,


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[Assistant] Then you need to take the under now because that number will come down if he is dealt or he decides to hold out. Obviously the holdout, you know, sort of tricky to predict in terms of the betting market. I'm also passing, but I would lean under right now just because I Lamar seems pretty dead set in his ways.


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[Assistant] Concern competition-wise in the AFC North is like Deshawn, like Deshawn Watson, who's, you know, we don't know what we're going to get from him.


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[Assistant] Again, like I think like this time of the year, you almost would rather...


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[Assistant] I mean, ten and seven feel, I mean, I don't know, I, this is a tricky one, like I'd rather have nine and a half and pay the Jews, I think on this one.


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[Assistant] We'd have the plus money at 10 and a half because you're asking for 11 wins, which is.


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[Assistant] What was the number of 10 and a half? Oh, there it is. It was, what was it? I was flipping. So it's over, over, over nine and a half minus one 40 under nine and a half plus one 20. Sorry. Um, but yeah, I think that, um, oh man. So we talked about the lions and the intercede pod. And for me, it's sort of like,


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[Assistant] And I mean, I trust Doug Peterson. I love Trevor Lawrence. I'm not, I'm not trying to fade the Jaguars because they are, you know, my mom's from Jacksonville. I love the city of Jacksonville. Uh, my grandfather had season tickets when that franchise started games.


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[Assistant] Second half of the NFL season does not carry over to the next year. That's, that's a myth. But it carries over to the end of that season.


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[Assistant] And by the way, we should point out that for the AFC South, the crossover matchups are obviously the, uh, the AFC North, which we mentioned in the, in the previous, uh, segment and then the NFC South. So AFC North, NFC South, those are two pretty good crossovers, especially if LeBar Jackson gets trained.


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[Assistant] They won the division that went under this turtle last year. Should they take a step forward? Maybe.


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[Assistant] I haven't, I got, I got specialty additions.


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[Assistant] Later in the year later in the off season and we'll probably lean towards the over. But right now I would take the under plus money because there's just a lot that can happen. And this is a team that has won double digit games once since like 2005.


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[Assistant] It's drifted a little bit down, so it's like minus 135, and I mean, you don't need to adjust the juice on the sheet, I don't think Billy, it's just the wind total moves, I think that's the key. Uh, plus 115 to the over.


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[Assistant] Man, it is tough to look at this offense and see how they're going to be good.


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[Assistant] When you look at Tennessee, I think one of the things that they still have Derek Henry, they still have.


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[Assistant] Brian Tannehill. There's like Traylon Burks and Nick Okini Westbrook. Kyle Phillips, racy MacMath. Is that


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[Assistant] Yeah, there's a, there's a couple of sites that grade them and see who.


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[Assistant] For, for Tana Hill. I mean, it's just like Traylor and Berks solo. AJ Brown solo worked. Traylor and Berks solo I don't think works.


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[Assistant] Okay, I'm on the under. I think the one, the one case to take the overs if you think Lamar Jackson's going to the Colts and in which case six and a half is free money over. I'll take the under. I don't think this team is.


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[Assistant] This is my favorite about the entire division and maybe the entire, the entire AFC. I love the over in the spot. I don't think that they're guaranteed to take CJ Stroud at two if the Panthers go Bryce Young. I think they will take Bryce Young at two. I would not be shocked at all if they went Will Anderson, um, at two.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I think it's like, you can draw the connections. D'Amico Ryan's, you know, Alabama guy. Um, Nick Casario works with the Patriots, like, you know, forever obviously has connections with Nick Saban. Um, you know, there's just so many Alabama connections there that it wouldn't surprise me if they decided we're either going to get Bryce Young or we're going to go Will Anderson at two.


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[Assistant] If the Panthers go brush up, if the Panthers go shroud, they're going to take you on it too, in my opinion. If they go.


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[Assistant] Bryce, I think the Texans could go to a different direction and say, all right, we'll see what's available with our next first round pick. And if it's not a guy we love, we're just going to punt it till next year and get Caleb Williams or Britton Drake back.


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[Assistant] I also think they materially improved their defense with a lot of veterans this offseason. And you'll see Tamika Ryan really coached that unit up. You're going from Lovey Smith. Dude, Lovey Smith was complaining about not being able to, he was like, I mean, it's just very frustrating that, you know, like in college, he's like, it's very frustrating that


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[Assistant] All you're being is I think D'Amico Ryan's dramatically improves his defense with everything they added and that the offense, you know, you got Bobby Sloak, the former basketball coordinator for the Niners in there.


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[Assistant] Yeah, this is my best bet. The division was the over 10 and a half. Um, again, like it was weird to the NFC. I was sort of looking at it. There's like a lot of the overs were too high, but with the AFC to me, this feels like the Kansas city chiefs from 2022. The bills are being undervalued because of all.


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[Assistant] The interest in the various other teams in that division. Now it's not as big as the AFC West last year.


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[Assistant] But the Aaron Rodgers stuff with the Jets and by the way, he's not on the Jets yet. Okay. So like there's some, you know, maybe you wait and he gets traded and it comes down a little bit to like, I don't think the bills will get to nine and a half, but.


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[Assistant] Uh, by the way, the cross division matchups, which we acknowledge are quite important. AFC West and NFC East for the AFC. That's pretty stale.


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[Assistant] By the way, so the person who said this, uh, 49ers rumor about the Packers is, um, uh, Ryan's good friend, Craig Cartoon.


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[Assistant] I'm on the under on the jet stage. They don't have, it's, this is like, I mean, you want to call it Fav, you want to call it Russell Wilson, you know what, it's just this.


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[Assistant] Stinks. Stinks. I mean, you get under, you get under nine and a half plus 115 with Aaron Rodgers not on the roster.


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[Assistant] I got the under here. This is like, there's too much. I mean, if two, uh,


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[Assistant] To his health is just too big an X factor to take the over at nine and a half wins here. Even at plus money.


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[Assistant] Alvin Calvin to me is an easy under look with the two of like, he's clear and he's good to go for week one, but I mean.


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[Assistant] I don't see how you can, it, it's not, this is not a situation where if Tua gets a concussion, he just goes in concussion protocol and then comes back. This is like, if he gets a concussion early in the season, you have to have a serious discussion about when he is going to play again for your football team, which means, you know, week one, something happens and yeah, I just, I just, I think under is the look here for the Dolphins at this point.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I lean over here, but man, the Max Jones stuff is concerning. It's not Max fault. Max outside help last year.


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[Assistant] I think you would take a different turn with this if you weren't the world's biggest match in support.


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[Assistant] Gone over his preseason win total every single year except for one since he took over the Chiefs in 2013 and that year he pushed on 12 wins and I believe it was 2021 when that happened. So you take it, if you're getting anything under 12 wins for the Chiefs, you take the over.


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[Assistant] Billy takes the under. I love you. Let's double down on you.


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[Assistant] I'm taking the overnight and a half here with the, with the chargers. I think that the, moving on from Joe.


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[Assistant] So like sub three a dot Lombardi, uh, and going to Kellen Moore is a huge upgrade. They need to give it maybe a speed receiver in, in the draft potentially just to compliment what they've got right now. But I mean, yeah, maybe Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both of them are there next year. Um, this, they do get the, they get the NFC North and AFC East, which pretty good division crossovers. They don't, this team also gets the Titans.


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[Assistant] Cowboys and Ravens, which is potentially great in terms of your matchups. I like the over here, I think.


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[Assistant] Justin Herbert, they'll win 10 games and like flame out epically in the playoffs, probably.


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[Assistant] I have too much respect for Sean Payton. I don't think that Russell is necessarily back or anything like that. Don't feel good about it.


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[Assistant] There's a chance. There's a chance he's as bad as he was in 2020. I don't think he'd be as bad as he was in 2022. I think he'd be 2021, Russ, which is also not great. Uh, but I try, I, I believe in Sean Payton and so I will take the over.


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[Assistant] I wouldn't, I wouldn't want to bet it at minus 150. That's really expensive. It's up, it was minus 140 earlier.


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[Assistant] Uhm, this week, I had it at minus 140 over at the article. Uhm, they.


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[Assistant] I don't know, man. I mean, if only one step forward, one step backward with the Raiders this off season, you know, like Jimmy G. Great. I love Jimmy G. Like better than Derek Carr, but it is not.


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[Assistant] At stake, the chance to put on the iconic green jacket. So golfers, are you ready?


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[Assistant] I feel bad if you like ask me a question and then like I go out like since I'm loquacious I could go on this like three minute tangent and all of a sudden Sully is just sitting there having not said anything on the podcast at all even like a hey how are you doing for three minutes.


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[Assistant] Ah, jeez. 2016, I did the first one and traded Philip Rivers to the Titans. And then in 2017, I think I traded Kirk Cousins to the 49ers. What do you think about that?


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[Assistant] And, um, basically I traded veteran quarterback in my first mock draft every year. And this one was a freaking layup because Lamar Jackson said he requested a trade yesterday on Monday. And so I just traded Lamar Jackson to the Colts. And I think what's interesting about this is selling one, you could do the,


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[Assistant] The normal process of this trade, right? Where you sign him to an offer sheet. He agrees. You give two first round picks to the Baltimore Ravens. Now, if I'm the Colts, one of them,


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[Assistant] Is, I think like, the issue is like, I'm giving up number four.


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[Assistant] So I kind of feel like, you know, that's sort of like two first round picks. And so I think that there's a pathway to where they could do something. Yes. I eat too many loquats.


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[Assistant] When I when I'm inebriated, I become loquacious at times. I think that I think that part of the problem is you could do a sign and trade instead. Now Lamar don't have an agent this really complicated but basically like the Ravens would or you could do a tag and trade the Ravens he would sign his tag with the Ravens. The Colts would have an agreement of principle


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[Assistant] And again, you got to trust the Colts on that, but you know, they're trading for you and you haven't been ever barreled leverage wise.


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[Assistant] And then you give the Ravens in exchange for Lamar Jackson versus the offer sheet. You give them a first round pick number four overall, and then you say, we're going to give you a 2024 second round pick.


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[Assistant] Which if we make the playoffs or a third round pick, we'd make the playoffs. We'll come to second. If we, if we.


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[Assistant] If Lamar plays, you know, 17 games, 15 games, and we make the playoffs becomes a first. It was some, some kind of conditions attached to it because it does feel like if I'm giving up number four overall.


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[Assistant] That is quite a bit of draft capital to expense when you, the Colts, may just want to get your own quarterback there.


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[Assistant] Uh, the, uh, well, I was going to say, like, you know, we're going to see, we can segue straight to the sound bites from the, the owners meetings. I mean, um, I don't know that this was actually on there. Well, actually it was. So I'll, I'll just shut up and let you host. Sorry. I was going to, I was going to mention Jim Ursay talking to reporters because he told Stephen Holder, like Lamar's not off the table, but he did that Ursay thing where he's like kind of saying they would do it. It's like Jerry Jones. Like you can't tell whether or not he's actually in.


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[Assistant] And then he says something where you're like, you're completely out, but you're kind of in. It's, it's, it's basically what happens. Um, you know, it'd be like, if you were having a conversation with somebody, you go on a date with a geriatric man at 2pm on a Tuesday, you know, conversation you're having, like they're talking.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we can, we can point out that Tom Brady.


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[Assistant] I think it is like, I, I, I don't know why I stand for Belichick on this all the time. Like I get it. Look, the three years he left haven't been great, but I mean, the guy, the guy, the guy won a lot of football games and he, he's the one who found Tom Brady and they, they came, it was, it was a collaboration. It wasn't Brady helping Belichick or Belichick helping Brady. It was, it was him helping each other. It wasn't like one dragging the other along. I mean,


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[Assistant] I also think you can point out that like, you know, Steve's greatest Tom Brady was with Tampa Bay. I mean, that Super Bowl was a bit fluky in a COVID year. You know, there's no crowds. He got to play at home. Um, and you know, they were good. They went 13, won 13 games the next year, but then eight and nine in his final season, the.


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[Assistant] Cause these idiot teams are chasing Belichick the entire time. Like they just went around their A to get to their ankle, around their ankle to get to their A, excuse me, try to figure out how to build these teams. But like with Belichick, I mean, you,


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[Assistant] He's the greatest football coach in the history of football. The greatest coach in the history of any type of football


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[Assistant] Like professional, amateur, Canadian, whatever you want. Take that Mark Tressman. Sorry, no offense. Uhm, and if you're


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[Assistant] Robert Kraft, you were the one who brought him in and helped and he built this dynasty.


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[Assistant] He's also got Mac Jones who, let's, let's, let's pump the brakes on like burying Mac Jones after a year with Joe Judge and Matt Patricia.


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[Assistant] And so you have the young quarterback in place, Belichick's still got great energy coaching and you've got Gerard Mayo who turned down opportunities to interview elsewhere as a successor in line. So I'm with you, Sully. Like let Belichick, you have to let Belichick coach out until he's done.


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[Assistant] To maximize your legacy as Patriot owner and you want the best way to maximize your legacy as Patriot owner.


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[Assistant] Is, is to burgeon Bill Belichick's legacy. And the best way to do that is to give Bill Belichick the time to build out a situation where there is a succession plan that when he leaves,


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[Assistant] Mayo takes over. Is it Mac or is it somebody else that you draft in the next couple of years? Like, do you want Belichick? Belichick is going to be like a senior advisor with the Pats anyway, right? Like, he's gonna just, I mean, well, maybe he just goes with fishes and like, and goes to Celtics games or something. But I mean, point being is like, this is a dude that


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[Assistant] You know, you weren't involved in your franchise. Belichick still has.


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[Assistant] The juice, like he hasn't lost a, you know, he doesn't have top grade anymore. He's the greatest quarterback of all time, but this is a guy who can still max out or help, help max out what you were going to get from your organization. And I think you want him involved in the succession plan because, uh, like, you know, it's weird how sometimes this works at coach K at Duke, right?


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[Assistant] You get the sense of like Coach K's find of John Shire stinks. That way everyone's reminded like it's like.


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[Assistant] Coach K is the reason this team won. I feel like Belichick wants, like if Mayo takes over, he will want Mayo to...


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[Assistant] Like to be smooth sailing and the Patriots who continue to be this, you know, organization that is, that runs at a very high level.


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[Assistant] I, I like, again, I stand pretty hard for Belichick and like, I mean, it's something that I've had these conversations on this pod like a lot, like this past year where somebody's like, you can hear it in, you know, your


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[Assistant] I'm serious, like, but like, like, you can, like, you can hear it, it's always like, the, the inner patch fan, where it's still very, obviously, like, you know.


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[Assistant] Oh, I get it. Yeah. No, no, no, no, no. I mean, look, I'm, I gotta state, yeah, I'm,


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[Assistant] I think it's a silly idea. It's like, I'm just gonna stop being a fan for this team I cared about for 30 years. Uhm, and the reason why I'm passionate about football. Uhm, but you can see it in selling. It's like the, the, you are, you are the symbol.


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[Assistant] You're the outward voice of the, the, the, the average Pat, the, the Pats fan, right? The average of the average man, the blue collar man in Boston. And you could tell that Sully, even Sully with all those, all those championship banners behind him is like kind of like, hi Bill.


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[Assistant] We said, I think we said this the other day, but you know, for years Belichick could do X and it's like, that seems like in a vacuum and absolutely more absolute more on move. However, because Belichick did it, we're going to give him like,


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[Assistant] Even last year, your draft or, uh, you know, we'll go back to 2020 if you want. Trade back to the second round and you have your dog named Nike draft a


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[Assistant] I knew about it when, when he was drafted. Most people didn't cause it's like in North Carolina, you're gonna get Kyle Dugger. Third time he's really good. Or you go get Cole strange in the first round and the Rams are making fun of you. If it were, it's.


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[Assistant] It's just the question of like how long will Belichick be infallible in the eyes of people around the NFL for making these moves that if the Browns did them or like the


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[Assistant] Who's the, Jaguars and Lions are like good now apparently, so you can't crap on them. Um, who's like the worst, who's the worst team in football right now? Who's like, who's the dumbest team in football now? Cause it's not.


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[Assistant] I'm just trying to think, cause like the Lions and the Jaguars and the Browns are the dumbest teams in football anymore. It's kind of disappointing. It was like an old, you know, it was an old standby. Like the Browns did this. Um, yeah. So anyway, the point being is like, if a dumb team did it, you'd be like, what do you think? You're an idiot. You drafted a second round, like,


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[Assistant] Safety out of Lenore ride and just be killing him for it.


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[Assistant] Belichick's gotten a pass for that for literally 20 years. And so the question is, will he continue to get that pass?


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[Assistant] Now that Tom Brady has not only gone and won a Superbowl somewhere else, but is also retired. Like it's, you know, there's a whole lot of stuff.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think one of the things too that you see, and this is not like Belichick's fault per se, but it's sort of the natural nature of success, right? Where...


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[Assistant] Because Belichick's title was always, he, there was never an official GM in New England. And that's how he wanted it. Like he said at times where there's no defensive coordinator, no offensive coordinator.


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[Assistant] You saw, you know, you see guys like Dave Ziegler leave with Josh McDaniels. You know, you see Scott Pioli leave to be a, a full-time GM and you know, Belichick is not the type of guy who's going to, you know, Nick Casario leaves to be a full-time GM. So all these guys, these personnel guys who have to shape this, you know, what the front office was for New England.


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[Assistant] Because of the success in New England, it's the same thing with the coaches, right? They've naturally moved on now, whether they've had success or not.


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[Assistant] Most of them haven't. And that speaks to why people do give Belichick the credit because


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[Assistant] The Patriots machine just keeps on chugging and despite, despite, it doesn't matter who leaves, except for Tom Brady.


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[Assistant] Well, like it was still good and whoever, wherever they went was usually bad. Like no one had a lot of success. You know, Eric Mancini, you know, like coaches, GMs. And so I think, you know,


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[Assistant] But Belichick's setup was a little different. For instance, look at Kansas City. You can look at Seattle if you want. Pete Carroll and Andy Reid.


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[Assistant] Or Andy Reid and Pete Carroll respectively, if I'm going to do it, you know, grammatically correct. Have the, have the technical, like, I don't know, I don't, I don't understand, like, so like,


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[Assistant] John Schneider and Brett Veach have plenty of power and plenty of input and they work collaboratively. Like that's the key for me is that you always want to work hand in hand, but like ultimately Andy Reid is the GM in Kansas City. If he was, if he, if he says, hey Brett, now Brett Veach was the guy who was like pound on the table for Patrick Mahomes, are we wrong? But like if he's like,


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[Assistant] Everybody's just like, we want to take this guy. And he's like, no, like Andy can overrule it.


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[Assistant] So I think that's like the best setup to have where you have a geom.


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[Assistant] And you have a really smart football coach and you work together. And I think Belichick and the Patriots did that for a long time, but there just wasn't a title of GM.


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[Assistant] When you have the brain drain that comes with success, a lot of times it's difficult to, you know, replace it. Like, you know, somebody mentioned Chip Kelly in the comments. Chip Kelly won a power struggle with Harry Roseman.


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[Assistant] And took over as the GM and that was his ultimate downfall. He was a good head coach in the NFL and won football games. And when he got too much power, he decided they needed to meet DeMarco Murray after coming off like 350 billion carries, he tanked out. And that's just the thing is like, there do need to be the checks and balances.


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[Assistant] It's about understanding your weaknesses, understanding your strengths, finding somebody you could collaborate with and being on the same page as the GM and the head coach, but not having like a power struggle that's constantly existing.


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[Assistant] Well, I thought it was really interesting. So, uh, is it Bossy Ossomfort? Is it now, um, in Tennessee?


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[Assistant] Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, uh, Carthens, Tennessee. Um, awesome for...


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[Assistant] Was the director of college scouting for the Patriots from, do you remember what the year was?


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[Assistant] I'm gonna tell you what, I'm gonna tell you, this is important, I promise. He was the director of college scouting for the Patriots from 2014 to 2019. Now he's director of college scouting, ostensibly


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[Assistant] You were scouting a lot of college players. You're, you're the guy who's saying, Hey Bill, like you're in charge. You're the director of college scouting. You are working with the college scouts. You are getting the information from the scouts and you are condensing it all.


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[Assistant] And presenting it to Belichick and saying, here's what our scouting department thinks about this, because the timeframe for NFL head coaches to get completely, you know, uh, uh, a prize of like what's going on with this draft class is very small, especially when you're the Patriots and you're always in the freaking Superbowl. So you have this really small window to get, so you have to trust your people.


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[Assistant] 2014 first round pick Dominique Easley. 2015 first round pick Malcolm Brown.


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[Assistant] No first round pick in 2016, but they went Cyrus Jones with their first pick.


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[Assistant] Derek Rivers, 17, Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michelle, the latter of whom was taken over Lamar Jackson in 2018 and 2019 in Keel Harry, their first round pick who was taken over AJ Brown, Thiebaud Samuel.


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[Assistant] And uh, DK McCaff. And DK McCaff, yes. So point being is like, that's the stretch where this guy was the director of college scouting.


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[Assistant] And coincided with the Patriots roster kind of sliding off the scales.


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[Assistant] If you, uhm, what do you think Meek Mill has saved and Robert Crash Phone has?


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[Assistant] If, if, if, if Robert Kraft says it's Bill Belichick's decision, then it's not going to happen. Belichick Jackson's name is Schell over Lamar Jackson coming out of college when he was at that point in time and he had been preparing to move on from Tom Brady for quite some time, right? Um, he had a chance to do that. Now, uh, who was it that argued?


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[Assistant] Oh my god, there's somebody, there's one on this podcast. There's a friggin chat. Somebody argued there was like, Sonya Michelle was worth it because they won a Superbowl. I was like, what? Anyway, um,


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[Assistant] I think it is very unlikely that Belichick is going to consider giving


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[Assistant] Uh, Lamar Jackson, $250 million fully guaranteed over the next five years, knowing too, like when you talk about that and we talk about the bell check stuff before the break, you know,


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[Assistant] When you make this decision at the quarterback position for a five year period, by the way, Mack Jones is his third year on a rookie contract. Like that's, it would be crazy. Um, you are probably.


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[Assistant] More than likely creating the quarterback situation for whoever the next coach of the Patriots is. And so I don't think that he would want to go fully guaranteed. You know, like this is not Belichick style. It would be shocking if he did.


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[Assistant] We've been, we've been, we've been, we've been, we've been diod for 20 years, okay? Like we love, it's like yea, yea, cause you're getting fed Super Bowls, like I get fed breakfast burritos. Yea, there's no Tommy.


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[Assistant] Oh yeah, it's hard to go from the single greatest dynasty in the history of any sport in the, like in the history of the world, the history of earth, uh, dating back to like dinosaurs to being just a normal football team. Yeah. But suck to suck, huh?


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[Assistant] I don't know what the actual list is called, but there's a to and on list.


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[Assistant] You got two in on that. I'm on the two in on list.


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[Assistant] You just don't want to talk about too on social media. Just don't do it because the dolphin fans are insane. Um, I do think that, you know, like if you're going to, if you're, if you're going to say come to the dolphins, I mean, here's the thing. We don't know how that gets to, we're going to play seem to be healthy to play.


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[Assistant] The Dolphins picked up his fifth year options, or presumably they're like, they think that he's going to be fine or he's going to be healthy enough to play, but like, if he gets a concussion in week one, is he playing?


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[Assistant] Is he playing again? Like, I mean, it, it, it is a, it's a viable question, but especially as


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[Assistant] They made it a point where, um, media times on that list, there's like hundreds of people on the list. It's a long list. I mean, like you, you could be able to do like disrespect to it. You just like talk about two and be like, I don't know if he's great. And then you're on the list. Um, but yeah, I think it's if you have two on a cost control contract.


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[Assistant] If you, if you, if you decided, we don't know if he's a guy, they were talking about Tom Brady last year. Why can't they get Lamar Jackson this year, Sully?


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[Assistant] Lamar's 26, by the way. I think that flies under the radar a little bit, like. Right. I mean, Lamar's playing in his, he's, he's played through the fifth year option. He's 26 years old. Some of these quarterback, Will Levis is, Will Levis is maybe 23.


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[Assistant] Sam Howell, I think is, I think what Ron Rivera said is actually kind of fair. Not, maybe not this quote that's on the screen right now talking about how, um, you know, they never looked into Lamar, um, same house, the same qualities of Brock Purdy the year before. So Sam Howell was not allowed to leave college football. So he had to, he had to play one more year before he got drafted. The, when he was,


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[Assistant] When he came into the final season of his career, which was what? 2021 college football, I guess.


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[Assistant] Now, was that Carolina team overhyped? Sure. Does Mac Brown ever deliver on the hype? Never. He accidentally stumbled into a championship with Vince Young. Anyway, I digress. The point being is that Sam Howell


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[Assistant] And Sam Howell is a first or second or third, even third round pick. Sam Howell probably wins a starting job in week one.


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[Assistant] But because they traded so much for Carson Wentz, they felt like this happens to the NFL all the time. Where 49ers, great example.


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[Assistant] Trey Lance, if Trey Lance was Mr. Irrelevant and Brock Purdy was a first round pick, we're not, this is not, there's no leader in the clubhouse. Brock Purdy's the guy. And so I think that like, the fact that Samuel Hell fell to the fifth round,


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[Assistant] Is causing people to sort of say, well, like this key, you can't possibly go with the fifth rounder. I think he's valued at his value to the 49 or the, excuse me, the commanders and Ron Rivera is higher than what people are generally giving a credit for. And so the fact that they're not making a move here doesn't surprise me as much as it surprises a lot of other people.


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[Assistant] This seems like a likely offer that's going to happen.


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[Assistant] The other thing is when you, when you sign this fully guaranteed contract, right, you have to put, we talk, we talk about the escrow money. It's not immediate. You put it in like a year later. So it would basically be asking this new group that buys them to spend $6 billion to finance the $6 billion to buy this team, which is a lot of money. Yeah.


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[Assistant] So I'm sure some of us have it behind us, whatever, uh, you know, the $6 billion and then like to go out and throw another $230 million in cash into escrow a year later, right after you buy the team. It's, it's something that it wouldn't be surprising if


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[Assistant] Don't, don't like, you know, you're about to sell this team.


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[Assistant] If you were to make that kind of cash outlay on a player or on a stadium, like Dan Snyder is not going to go and sign a deal with like a, you know, Virginia to do a stadium, like right. He's about to sell the team. Just like you don't want to sign a deal with Lamar Jackson right as you're about to sell the team. The Russell Wilson thing was a little, you know, it, it was Russ was,


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[Assistant] Russ was getting that contract, big contract, but you felt like you were getting a franchise quarterback. It felt like it made the team more attractive. Lamar with what he wants and the idea that you don't have, it's going to be difficult to get that contract makes it a little more difficult to make that move.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, like if you wanted more proof that they're colluding against the, against the players. I mean, like every owner's like, you know, I just think you look at Gary. I mean, of course you don't like guaranteed, fully guaranteed contracts.


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[Assistant] The interval is built on the fact that you can sign somebody to a five-year contract that's worth three hundred and seventy-five billion dollars and then cut them after two years giving them nineteen million dollars.


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[Assistant] The NFL, NFL contracts, that's like the hardest part about covering the NFL.


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[Assistant] If you're, I mean, don't you think Sally, like is navigating like the salary cap of the contracts because


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[Assistant] There's bonuses that would do it crazy times. Like, if, if, if you're covering baseball, like Matt Snyder, our, my contemporary, our contemporary on the baseball side, like one of my really good friends and, and a great writer, um, average baseball player in college for what it's worth. Uh, maybe below average.


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[Assistant] And a Bears fan sucks to suck. And uhm, you know, Snyder, you know, like if, if Mike Trout goes inside the contract, that's 10 years, $320 million. There's no like digging into the contract to figure out.


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[Assistant] You know, how much of this money is he going to get paid? How much is fully guaranteed? How much is guaranteed for injury? How much, you know, when can the team actually cut him? Is there, you know, is this a, is there three dummy years? It's just a 10 year contract for $320 million and that's what he's getting paid. Now there'll be paid different stuff at different times, but he's going to get that baseball player is going to get every dollar of that contract. Whereas with, you know, us, it's like,


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[Assistant] Derrick Carr is a perfect example. Everywhere Derrick Carr is like, Derrick Carr just got...


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[Assistant] Um, you know, a $50 million contract. You're like, well, or no for your $150 million contract with the new Orleans saints. And you're like, my God, that's so much money. And then you go and look at his contract. You're like, oh, it's really a three year contract. That's going to pay him not even close because his base salary in 2026 is $50 million.


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[Assistant] He's never going to see that $50 million. He will be cut because he'll be 35 years old and they can get out of it and save.


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[Assistant] They would say 40, almost 44, 44.3 million dollars in cap space in 2026. Like he will never see a dollar of that $50 million just like in his last contract. And so that's what makes it hard to cover. And that's why when, you know, of course these owners don't want fully guaranteed deals.


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[Assistant] I talk too much. I talk too much and routinely get told to shut up and get cut off. So I mean, that's how it works.


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[Assistant] Like if you're diving for the end zone and you lose the ball and it fumbles out the back and it becomes the other team's ball in the 20, like to me the, um, I think the, the relative,


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[Assistant] Yeah, football bounces weird ways and the relative net worth of each like, it's like you eat through the touchdown.


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[Assistant] Or it's the other team, or it's a turnover and the other team gets a ball in the 20 where it's like, if the ball bounces to the right, you get the ball at the one. I think that that, that to me is very annoying. I also think I would like some kind of rock and jock style field goal situation where, or, or, or maybe instead of going for


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[Assistant] That's more fun to me than an onsite kick because they've neutered the onsite kick completely where no one recovers an onsite kick anymore. So give me, give me some, give me some sweat. I want to sweat a fourth and 10 when the team can decide we want to go fourth and 10 from the, you know, from their own, I guess you don't have your own 25. So if you don't convert it, the other team is going to score.


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[Assistant] Let's say you're down 10 and you score a touchdown and there's a minute left. You have no time else.


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[Assistant] Are you going to onside kick or are you going to go for it on fourth and 10 from your 25? You're going to go for your 25.


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[Assistant] And it becomes even more fun. Let's say a minute left, you have three timeouts somehow. Or two minutes left, you have three timeouts. You're like, okay, we have three timeouts. We're down three. We're going to go for it on the fourth and ten from our own 25. Even if we don't get it, we have three timeouts and they might kick a field goal here.


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[Assistant] And then all of a sudden, you know, we get the ball back down six. Like there's just, I just want more strategy. I want to like squeeze these brains a little bit more aggressively on these coaches and make them make stupid, more stupid decisions in game.


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[Assistant] What about this? You're down four points. There's like 10 seconds left. You got the ball. You can choose to kick a 70 yard field goal or like, hold on, hold on.


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[Assistant] 70 yards, 70 yard field goal. And it's like that's worth 4 points to tie it up.


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[Assistant] And I, and I, I understand why they do it, but it's like at the end of these incidental tournament games.


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[Assistant] It's like the ball is like, it's like, let's say, um, Texas is playing Miami just hype. I mean, it's not real call from this just hypothetically. Texas shoots or Miami shoots a jump shot.


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[Assistant] Texas has two offensive rebounders and they're going up and some Miami guy comes flying in and like hits the ball and the ball hits, you know, it's like, and the ball goes out, there's signal, all right, Texas ball. And it's like, yeah, I mean, that's sort of the, and then they go back and look, it's like, oh, well, actually like graze like, like a, like a micro, like,


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[Assistant] Yeah, and it's like, dude, the ball went out of bounds because the Miami guy kept flying in and hit the ball.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I think that that one's that was just tough. It's just that's just something that has to be.


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[Assistant] You just need more consistency and officiating. I don't think you want to review that. That's just something where it just shouldn't have been called in the course of like what the game that we saw, I think, but it was technically a penalty.


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[Assistant] I don't think you can do any call can be reviewed, although I don't like disagree with the concept there. I think anything, some stuff is a little too subjective to be reviewed, but I think past interference and.


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[Assistant] Roughing the past or I don't think that it should be, everything should be reviewable, but I think that on those calls in particular, the NFL from the league office and from how they, how they work needs to buzz in and say, Hey,


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[Assistant] That one wasn't a roughing the pass or pick up the penalty or, you know, that one was a pass interference, pick up the penalty if it's an obvious situation where it impacts the actual outcome of the game.


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[Assistant] If a, if a play results in like, like third, some, what hurt you Billy? What play hurt you? There is a specific one, right?


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[Assistant] Uhm, they don't, you gotta give them too much money because they make a bunch of money at their other jobs. And I think that the way to do it is just say, add more referees to the field. Just put more eyeballs out there.


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[Assistant] How many games are on Sundays? Max 16. Here's an idea. Hire 15 dudes with some concept of watching football.


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[Assistant] And be like, hey, sir, I got one over here. If you can check this one out real quick. Um, was that password interference? No. All right, cool. Moving on. Like, I mean, just hire some people. You have $14 billion, $18 billion. I mean, we got Gene Sterret.


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[Assistant] Yes. So, yes, so we're, no, I don't have any more. Do you, Solly? I'm good. What if you were like, I have 14 more rules I would like to discuss. Alright, here we go.


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[Assistant] Keep it locked with us every single week for all of your off-season news, and remember to like, comment, subscribe to the YouTube page, and if you're listening to audio only, do the same, download, follow, leave a five-star review, and tell your friends to watch and listen to the pod.


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[Assistant] Fellas, big week this week. I mean, maybe not necessarily for football, but we've got the NCAA final tonight. Got the Masters coming up this weekend. Never heard of it.


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[Assistant] On the college teams. So it's like completely off the board. So thank God I got a futures ticket already for San Diego State to win, uh, the ship because otherwise I wouldn't be able to take a money line tonight, which I actually think they can win.


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[Assistant] 11 seems like a more, like you can understand what's going on more than I was a young first grader.


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[Assistant] Because I was, I think I was like five or something, because I was four in pre-, whatever, it doesn't matter. Watch the men's national chip tonight on CBS at 9.30 Eastern and don't forget to tune in for pre-game coverage with us here at CBS on 8.30 PM. You got the number five SDSU versus number four Yukon.


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[Assistant] Don't be like a young Will Brinson and go to your cousin's play and miss the big game and San Diego winning in another buzzer beater by one point.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we gotta, we gotta keep going. Alright, let's talk NFL draft.


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[Assistant] First overall pick, the favorite is, uh, well a bunch of quarterbacks obviously. Favorite is CJ Stroud minus 250. Now Young was the favorite up until Carolina made that trade with the Bears to move up for the first overall. Sportsbook seemed to feel that the Panthers are really big fans of Stroud.


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[Assistant] Do y'all think that he goes number one? Would you take this better? Is there more value down, well of course there's more value down the line, but actual, actuality down the line.


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[Assistant] How often will, because I've only been betting on the draft for a couple years now and last year was pretty wild, does, is the favorite for number one overall actually the number one overall?


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[Assistant] So when we look at this number two overall pick, now you got Bryce Young minus 220. Obviously it seems like he's...


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[Assistant] Going to Houston or that Houston would like him there. They of course have the number two. Then you got CJ Stroud at plus 200. Then you got Levis at plus 1400 again for first and second overall. He's at plus 1400. What are we thinking?


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[Assistant] Yeah, on that note, we are going to take a quick break. You're watching the Pig Six Podcast. We'll be right back.


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[Assistant] A tradition unlike any other. The Pixix Podcast here again on a Monday for not following us on social. What are you doing at PixixPod across all social media platforms?


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[Assistant] Alright, let's talk receivers, Josh. If we, uh, we look at this, you got Jackson Smith, Enigba, minus 200, you got Quinton Johnson, plus 450, Zae Flowers, what a name, Zae Flowers, at plus 600, Jordan Addison, and down the line. Who do you think will be the first drafted ride receiver this year?


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[Assistant] Alright, moving on to the first drafted defensive player, Will Anderson Jr. is the heavy favorite, the juiciest odds we've seen so far, minus 450. Then you got Jalen Carter, plus 800. He's actually tied in the odds with, uh, Tyree Wilson at plus 800, then Christian Gonzalez at plus 900. Josh, what do you think?


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[Assistant] Yes, yes, absolutely. We're going to take a quick break. You're watching the Big Six Podcast. We'll be right back. What do you think we're going to uncover out there?


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[Assistant] PropBetsOddShow, make sure you tap in with us all week long for all of your NFL offseason news. And of course, remember to like, comment, and subscribe to the YouTube page.


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[Assistant] Now let's move on to where will they draft? We've talked about the Seahawks a lot already in this episode. They got the number five. They've got the number 20. Brinson, I feel like you put a lot of good knowledge about what the Seahawks can do, but Josh, what are you thinking?


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[Assistant] Alright, let's talk about the Raiders. They have the number 7 and the number 38 picks. Obviously, the favorite is that they get a quarterback, even though they have Jimmy Garoppolo. Will Levis has been in that conversation. Is that where you think they go, Josh?


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[Assistant] Alright, let's, uh, let's look at the Lions. They have the number 6, uh, from the Rams. They also have pick number 18.


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[Assistant] I don't know. I mean, I feel like a lot of people are thinking that Will Anderson Jr. would be a good fit there, or if they want to go quarterback, then maybe Anthony Richardson. What are you thinking, Josh?


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[Assistant] Alright guys, we got to tap out here, but thank you so much for watching the Pick 6 Podcast for Wilbrinson, myself and Josh Edwards, Edwards. Make sure you tune in with us every single week for all of your NFL off-season news. And remember to like, comment, subscribe on our YouTube page for audio only. Do the same. Leave us a five-star review and, uh, you know, just tell your friends about us and we will see you on Tuesday.


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[Assistant] It's a tradition unlike any other. The Masters on CBS.


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[Assistant] It's a tradition unlike any other. The Masters on CBS.


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[Assistant] That is true, or some, you know, leaves to ayahuasca type of miracle.


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[Assistant] I don't think, like you said, I don't think that they need him to play. It's not like this is a winner get in or winner let the cowboys kind of squeak into the NFC's conversation.


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[Assistant] They can let one go if they really need one- need to, and ultimately...


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[Assistant] You know, Dallas, because game last week, it really they would need an utter


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[Assistant] Yeah, and again, we're not looking at, we're looking at this Philadelphia team, you know, I think we all consider Gardner-Minschew one of the upper-echelon backups in the league, right? I mean, I don't know.


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[Assistant] Where we want to put him in terms of like, you know, in terms of the rankings, I don't know if he's, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo level when they had train Lance or anything like that, but he's still a more than serviceable backup that could keep this game relatively close. I mean, Philadelphia, both these teams.


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[Assistant] I do think that there's a world where, and again, the NFL is always weird like this, where Garner Mitschu is perfectly fine and Philadelphia ends up winning this game. Like if you, if we walk away from this, it would be shocking.


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[Assistant] And so you look at it a little bit deeper too, and our CBS research team did a great job kind of, you know, dissecting Minshew. In his two games with the Eagles, he's played solid. Four touchdowns, one interception. He's, you know, more, he's got a touchdown ratio of 17 to 4.


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[Assistant] It's, he's, he's pretty solid, especially when you look at his, his, his performances against pressure, which obviously the Dallas Cowboys apply an absolute ton of pressure. Since 2019, his touchdown interception ratio, 17 to 4, like I was saying, his passer rating hovering around 80, which is fourth over that stretch. It's not terrible.


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[Assistant] And when you have all of the weapons that Philadelphia has around you, a sturdy offensive line, we've talked about their defense a bunch.


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[Assistant] He just needs to not shoot them in the foot, and this will be a field goal game, I feel.


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[Assistant] And that's what I was saying too, just if you didn't hear me, the, the Cowboys apply so much pressure, highest rate in the NFL. Minshew has played well under pressure. I mean, it, it is since 2019, first in touchdown interception ratio, fourth in passer rating. You have all that, that cast around you, you'll be fine.


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[Assistant] Doesn't it feel, I mean we've talked about this a bunch, or at least I have, that it feels like Dallas always plays down in their competition. It feels like wherever they find themselves on the line, whether it's Houston, where they're 17 point favorites, they were favorites going into Jacksonville I believe last week.


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[Assistant] It's always a one possession game. Things get fluky. Dak Prescott hasn't been sharp over these last few weeks throwing a bunch of interceptions.


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[Assistant] If you tell me that this is a field goal game one way or another going into the two minute warning, I'd be like, yeah, that's kind of exactly where I thought this game was going to go.


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[Assistant] And so let's talk about this, you know, piece of it, because if you want to look big picture, obviously we just do the trends for this week, but let's just say Minshew is phenomenal and is just, they cruise, they look like the Philadelphia Eagles. Does that do anything in your mind to hurt Jalen Hertz's MVP case?


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[Assistant] I was going to say that's a big stop start when you're talking about, I was going to say when you're talking about the first round bye as well.


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[Assistant] That feels like a little bit too long for me. I mean, really, it's...


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[Assistant] It's week 18 and then the bye is the big question obviously in terms of stopping. I think he plays week 17 if he's healthy. I don't know if you hold him out there because like you're saying that just feels like way too much time to miss to then all of a sudden rev things back up to try to go win a Super Bowl. You kind of want to keep that rock skipping at least a little bit.


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[Assistant] Right. And it's just, the choice is really made for you.


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[Assistant] Well, I guess, I guess the decision could be made for you this week if you do lose to Dallas because you want to completely shut the door and then you play in week 17. Right. Because you all of a sudden don't want to have Minshew play these next two weeks. He loses and then you kind of got to throw Hertz back out there in week 18 when you could have rested him for two weeks then instead of the two weeks prior.


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[Assistant] No, I wouldn't either. I mean, again, it's ti- it's...


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[Assistant] It's, it's tricky because you kind of, this is one of those games that kind of felt like it was building towards, you know, Michael Parsons talking about Jalen Hurts and all of this other stuff leading into this game.


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[Assistant] And you wanted to finally see this head on head because obviously earlier in the season, it was Cooper Rush for Dallas. So we haven't seen Dak Prescott, the Cowboys fully healthy going up against Jaylen Hertz and the Eagles fully healthy. This kind of felt like it was going to be.


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[Assistant] I mean, you know what it is though? You have Jacobi Meyers and obviously Ramandre Stevenson, the two kind of perpetrators on that side.


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[Assistant] Yeah. But they wouldn't even have been in that game if it wasn't for those two players either. So as much as they blew that game, it was, Ramandre ripped off the big run and then Myers had a big catch on their touchdown play in the second half.


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[Assistant] You know, as much as you don't want to kind of even things out and say it's a wash because it's not because they lost the game on that play, but.


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[Assistant] This team right now is not a good, not a well coached football team. It's weird to say because Bill Belichick's the head coach, but they just are not like you were saying. The offensive coordinator was a defensive coordinator. The special teams coach is now a quarterbacks coach. It just feels like everything's out of whack and it feels like Mac Jones has been visibly frustrated over these last few weeks.


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[Assistant] And it just feels like it's going to trend in a wrong direction. And next up they have the team that is not only a legitimate threat in the AFC, but they are the best team in the NFL record wise against the spread in the Cincinnati Bengals.


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[Assistant] Kinda nail in the coffin kinda game for the New England Patriots, even though it kinda felt like that was last week with Chandler Jones scoring that touchdown.


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[Assistant] Not only that, it's, you know, as much as we're talking about Jaylen Hurts and all those MVP odds, you know, Joe Borrow could sneak in there as well. There is a path here for Cincinnati to get the number one seed in the AFC. They still have Buffalo next up on their schedule. We've seen both Buffalo and Kansas City.


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[Assistant] If one of these teams slips up, obviously, Cincinnati already has the head-to-head tiebreaker with Kansas City from earlier in the year. If all of a sudden they beat Buffalo, you're talking about them creeping up into the one seed. And if you look up and Joe Borough goes nuclear over this last month,


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[Assistant] I don't know where that puts him in terms of the MVP conversation, but I feel like it's a lot higher than he is right now.


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[Assistant] And as we've seen it over the last few years and all that, this is a very recency bias award. The hot pan towards the tail end of the season wins it more often than not.


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[Assistant] And we're still kind of up in the air, as much as Hertz has been the kind of wire to wire pick.


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[Assistant] As we're seeing right now, clearly things can flip on a dime and not only flip, but like flip dramatically with the odds that Patrick Mahomes has right now.


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[Assistant] Wouldn't surprise me. I mean, this is, I mean, I think people will love to watch the nail be put in the coffin for the Patriots and Ashley and you have the one of the hottest teams in the AFC in Cincinnati going right now. That, that makes a lot of sense to me. And so.


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[Assistant] It wouldn't surprise me at all. And again, you look at this team in Cincinnati, 11 and 3 against the spread this season, it's the best in the NFL. Patriots, 3 and 3 against the spread at Gillette Stadium this year.


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[Assistant] It's just, you know, I know the three and a half might scare some people, I think you lay that easily.


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[Assistant] Yeah, and not only that, we have Zach Wilson in this game because Mike White has already been ruled out. So you got the number one overall pick from the 2021, right? 2021 NFL Draft and this number two overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft going at it. Obviously two very different roads for these quarterbacks to get to this game.


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[Assistant] But yeaah, when you're talking about Lawrence, I totally agree with you. This feels like a...


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[Assistant] Coming out party on the national stage. The Jaguars are 4-1-1 against the spread over this streak with them. And they are very much within striking distance of getting the AFC South title. So for me, you look at what Lawrence has been able to do over this stretch.


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[Assistant] New York has a just absolutely tough defense, but ultimately,


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[Assistant] I do feel like this is the type of player that generationally can come out here and just kind of defy those things. So that's kind of where I look at.


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[Assistant] With Jacksonville. I know New York obviously has been, you know, solid defensively and they played well under Mike White and Zach Wilson was okay over the last few weeks, but.


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[Assistant] You know, I don't know if I necessarily feel great about them at all in this game. Especially if I get this correct, I'm gonna look it up.


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[Assistant] I do think, yeaah, the, the, the New York Jets are the...


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[Assistant] Laying one point in this game, which kind of is interesting. Jaguar is obviously getting a point, the total 38.


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[Assistant] I would love to get the Jaguars here at minus 105. That's kind of where...


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[Assistant] I look at with the Jaguars in this one, but ultimately it does feel like this shouldn't be close as much as Lawrence has been solid here.


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[Assistant] My, uh, sorry. Yeah, you're good. Don't worry. I was talking all about the Jaguars. I look up and you're gone.


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[Assistant] I mean, I think that it's interesting when you look at Kansas City and when you look even like the Bills too in this game when they're going to Chicago. Both of these teams, Juggernauts and the AFC laying around nine and a half, nine points.


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[Assistant] Both of them, but specifically with Kansas City, you think that that's kind of a pretty big number, but Kansas City won 4-1 against the spreaded arrowhead this season. Haven't been a good bet at home.


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[Assistant] Like, oh, we're, we're overlooking him because he's so great. He set such a high standard that, you know, it's, it's almost like what Tom Brady has been, you know, for years, Aaron Rodgers, all these elite quarterbacks, you almost gloss over these great seasons because it's not up to their standards.


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[Assistant] Well I'll tell you this Will, in their past 7 games, 0-6-1 against the spread. Yeaah, they're not covering at all. No.


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[Assistant] Right, and just to hammer it home, if Hartz doesn't play the rest of the season, there is still a world where he wins the MVP. Yeah, I think it's... It's less likely...


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[Assistant] Yeaah. I mean, you're talking to Alan too, it's not like that Chicago defense is anything shit but crazy. I mean, it's like, I know that they kept things close last week with Philadelphia.


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[Assistant] But, and that's kinda what I was, was gonna point to here. You know, the Buffalo is two and six against the spread of their last day games, but I do feel like this is one of those games where you can kind of say, alright, like you're saying.


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[Assistant] That's, this, this feels like a good spot to me for Buffalo, even though that's a big number on the road.


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[Assistant] I still think I would just because I do think that Buffalo has the ability to just kind of...


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[Assistant] Explode at any given moment but especially with that Chicago defense not being great.


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[Assistant] You know, Justin Fields can kind of break a game open, I guess, just because of his rar ability. But I do think that this defense is capable enough buffalos.


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[Assistant] No, I don't hate it. I mean, I don't hate it from a value standpoint. Obviously, it's extremely difficult for it to go down. But like, I don't know, like you're saying, because it's in the NFC.


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[Assistant] Things could get a little wonky. It's not out of the realm of possibility. It's not like there's these juggernauts of quarterbacks. The Mahomes is the Allens, the Burrows.


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[Assistant] Well, I'll ask you this because Caesars has this too, and I think we talked about this probably in the middle of the season. They have the champion versus the field prop on there.


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[Assistant] So it's the Bills, Eagles or Chiefs to win the Super Bowl this year. That's minus 135. The field is plus 115. Is that enough juice for you to look that way?


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[Assistant] Like you're riding, you're going with, you're riding pretty hard with like Cincinnati at that point. And you know, I think that's the team you feel best about.


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[Assistant] You're eliminating one of those teams right there. I mean, and that could easily happen. Sure, of course it could.


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[Assistant] I was looking around to see if, you know, uh, uh, they don't have it right now on, on Caesar's, but I want to see if I can sprinkle some more on the number one overall seed. Cause I think Cincinnati could easily rise up there.


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[Assistant] I wondered if it was taken off the board because of the Hertz injury.


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[Assistant] But. They dropped one of those games and Bengals beat the Bills and they went out. You're talking about them as them one seed.


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[Assistant] Uh, for what? The Bangos 1 scene? Yeah. I forget what it was.


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[Assistant] I think it was, I mean, this is a while ago now. I couldn't even give you the right, I couldn't even give you the right one.


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[Assistant] I first time I really had a chance to get to know Peyton was I went to Louisiana to do his football camp before anybody else ever went there.


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[Assistant] And sat in a dorm room and talked to him for about 40 minutes with no interruption. Think about that. That would never happen now.


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[Assistant] That was the year I tell you that story all the time about Philip Rivers when I pulled up in the stadium, it was like 115 out that day in Louisiana and they were on a synthetic field and I look out and I go, who are those lunatics out there working out? And it was Eli and Peyton and Philip Rivers. God, I'd love to hear it.


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[Assistant] Against a good defense. He won the same guy. Didn't look as confident. Made a couple big plays, but Kittle bailed him out on the illegal formation that he shouldn't have been legal on. Uhm, but.


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[Assistant] Uh, you know, that was a big play in that game. It gets them going and gets them down there to get that points. Uh, but I, I think when you look at it,


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[Assistant] It's tough. The defensive line can get after the quarterback. They're outstanding at rushing the passer.


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[Assistant] And on the other side, look, the 49ers, if you block them, you beat them. I've always said that. I think this offensive line is the best in football. I think they'll block them. Those linebackers are speedy. They can fly to the football. We know that. But one thing that when you can go sideline to sideline, the way the Eagles spread you out on offense, that makes it really,


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[Assistant] Uh, kind of neutralize some of that speed a little bit and it opens up the middle of the field. So I think.


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[Assistant] The Eagles are the play here. I think they win by seven, eight points in this game, and I'll take the Eagles as the best bet. I think both teams will score, by the way. Uh, so I do think, you know, there might be some turnovers in short field, so I'll take the Eagles, uh, and the over in the game.