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[Assistant] Uhm, I- Yes you are. Which I am, I'm a Swifty for sure.


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[Assistant] Yes, that's all I wanted to hear. Uhm, but uh, if you go and check out my best bouts article, so I don't know if you guys know this, there's a Taylor Swift. Alex, Alex, are you Swifty? Are you Swifty?


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[Assistant] Well, uhm, uh, so there's a, uh, Gannett Media is doing a thing where they're hiring a Taylor Swift correspondent.


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[Assistant] Taylor Swift lyrics or Taylor Swift songs, like into your writing. And if you want to check it out, I will give a Brinson buck to anybody who can identify all of the Taylor Swift songs that I swove into my thousand word best bets article. It is double digits. I promise you that. So it's like an Easter egg hunt.


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[Assistant] Two games, I guess, Chargers and Dolphins and then Patriots and Eagles where you kind of felt like man.


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[Assistant] On those picks, I don't know how I went two or four of these picks and one for this, but whatever. Um, yeah, I guess. Uh, but I mean, like, you know, I mean, I already, I'm already, I already know how it's going to start from coach, you know, like doing like all kinds of wrestling stuff. And I'm like, yeah, like it's a,


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[Assistant] Yeah, but yeah, I mean, but like they're, so we had those cool graphics they use last week to like first week. It's like, oh, this is awesome. But then like I saw the new with the new graphics look like they're putting a record in big font, like with like with the same


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[Assistant] Like, I'm already kind of dreading that, so uhm.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I either run hot or I run cold and like, yeah, I ran cold week one. I just think like I mean road underdogs, road dogs. I don't know. I feel like I feel like I feel like it was like if you look at like I was looking at like the picks pool that I'm in and it was like the people who did well last week. I'm like, ah, I see. I see who did well last week. Wasn't the short people. Anyway, moving on.


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[Assistant] I did a, I, uh, I mean, it was, it was getting pretty robust.


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[Assistant] And, uh, you know, it was one of those where like, I don't know if you're a little Titans executive, uh, is it Rustin Webster? Who, um, I can't remember who, what was the guy's name, but he like, he didn't have a beard, but he had this like goatee.


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[Assistant] I mean, I lead towards Cincinnati here, uh, as well. We've seen, you know, 20 last year they lost, uh, 17 to 20.


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[Assistant] That's my only concern here is that it's not like Burrows like Wash and I don't think he is just that maybe they're going to be slow once again on offense early in the season. At the same time, I didn't think Baltimore's offense looked that great against Houston. Like Zay Flowers is the truth and he's awesome.


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[Assistant] And he's going to be, I think that we had 30 to one and we were talking about, um, as a rookie of the year bet, like even though the quarterback is going to be a problem, like that dude should be probably, he's probably going to be.


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[Assistant] And, uh, and anybody, the Browns, excuse me, and like the, and, but just has the Ravens number for whatever reason. So, um, I would lean Bengals here, almost put it as a best bet.


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[Assistant] They moved up to number three in Pete Prisker's power rankings, which is a substantial move. You can listen to that show on Tuesday. Pete actually, we didn't talk to him about it, but I mean, we were making fun of him for it because he moved him up so high. I thought the offense, I thought scoring 31 on the road, a divisional game in week one, like a really tough game that we've seen the Colts struggle with when they play Jacksonville. Like I thought, I thought,


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[Assistant] I was impressed with Jacksonville, but, um, I don't, I worry a little bit about the, uh, the, the defense here, RJ, because, um,


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[Assistant] Yeah, a little, a little dicier. Alex, do you think on a KC Jags?


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[Assistant] All right. Packers and Falcons. Maybe my favorite bet of the week. The line has shifted dramatically. Uhm, bye RJ.


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[Assistant] The Falcons were, uh, plus one and a half this morning and the line has already moved up to, uh, Atlanta minus one and a half. I said in my picks column.


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[Assistant] I really liked what I saw to Jordan Love in week one, thought the defense was impressive. Uh, Aaron Jones, fantastic. He's been, he's a little banged up. I think they said it was, uh, Jay Glazer reported it was mostly precautionary, but I really liked what I saw to the Falcons, particularly their defense.


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[Assistant] I thought Atlanta's defense, people are really underrating the additions they made between like Kalais Campbell and Jesse Bates, um, and, uh, DJ, uh, uh, DJ Angoulay.


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[Assistant] Keep like, it's going to be a really steady defense. Desmond Ritter has never thrown an interception at the NFL level. He just doesn't, he doesn't turn the ball over.


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[Assistant] Right, exactly, but he didn't turn the ball over. Uhm, David Anyavada. Sorry, I don't know why I thought DJ was the guy, the name I was going for there. Uhm, and I think when you see what


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[Assistant] You know, Green Bay scored 38 against the Bears. This is not expected to be a shootout. You know, this is supposed to be a low scoring game. Both teams are going to run the ball a ton. Atlanta's going to play ball control and, and try to play good defense. Now Green Bay might do the same thing. I just think I trust Desmond Ritter maybe a little bit more than Jordan Love to not turn it over when being forced into those situations. RJ, I think you've got a best bet here as well.


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[Assistant] And they don't care about fantasy football either. I don't know if you heard. Yeah.


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[Assistant] No, but Arthur is like, it's like, Hey, no targets for Drake London. Arthur's just like Drake London care. We don't care about fantasy football. It's like, well, they just.


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[Assistant] That is interesting because there are a bunch of, um, there are a bunch of games like that where it's, you just have, you have those kind of overreactions.


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[Assistant] Get Aaron four snaps of Aaron Rodger. Jimmy G. That's right. There he is. Katie's man. Kelly's man. Uh, the, uh, the Raiders get the, the, the, the Jets lose Aaron Rodgers four snaps into the game and the Bills can't beat Zach Wilson.


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[Assistant] And as such, like we talked about this on the early odd show on Monday, it's like, if the bills...


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[Assistant] Okay. Well, capper told me this in the deep dive, the one concern I think, and I hadn't really thought about it. So he said it. The one concern I think you have with the.


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[Assistant] With the bills here is, does Sean McDermott try to rein in Josh Allen too much?


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[Assistant] And really pull back and like let it be a run heavy game or is this like a, okay, we don't have to play the Jets. They're sort of Alan script tonight. Let's cut loose against a Raiders defense is certainly questionable. I'm going to go with the ladder first home game for the bills of the season. I think Alan has a huge game against the Raiders. I like bills. You can give it a minus eight and a half.


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[Assistant] Uhm, available at, uh, FanDuel, I believe. We saw nine and a half up there, but you can find it eight and a half out in the market.


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[Assistant] What's the, what's the percentage? Or the number of juice?


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[Assistant] No, I'm just kidding. I have no idea. Profstars, you got a bet on here too? Do you want to give it out?


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[Assistant] Uhm, by the way, Josh Allen, over half of the reception plus 105.


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[Assistant] When you see that, that tells you that the Vegas does not believe in this Raiders defense and, uh, Josh Allen longest completion over under 36 and a half. The under is juice minus one 20. I mean, you could correlate that with a Gabe Davis over too, where it's like just thinking deep shots. He,


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[Assistant] Yeah, sure. No, it's just not, it wouldn't be unlikely. I just think, I just think they're going to, he's going to take, they're going to be like, look.


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[Assistant] I was going to go into a whole thing, a tangent about like why the deep ball is, like there's articles out there about like why it's disappeared and all that, um, and it's true. But before we do any more tangents, um,


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[Assistant] We'll come back and talk about some, uh, some, some teams being home dollars. But reminder this Sunday, we can't wait for another NFL and CBS double header. The early games are headlined by chief Jaguars and the Raiders taking on the Bills. Then the Jets will try to beat a daunting Dallas defense with their backup QB, Zach Wilson. It all begins at noon Eastern with JB and the guys.


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[Assistant] On the NFL today, all hail Sunday. The NFL is on CBS and streaming on Paramount plus coming up next Colts Texans. Oh my, who are we taking? We'll tell you next.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I do think I'd look at the, uh, the lions here. I'm really interested.


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[Assistant] I don't really care. I think they, I think Seattle might be bad. Like Seattle's both tackles are missing. Detroit's pass rush is good. I mean Detroit, Detroit's on a 10 day break.


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[Assistant] Like, they have the weapons on offense to really do some damage to Seattle's defense, I think, and uhm, it's, it's possible that like,


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[Assistant] Like, I'm really fascinated to see the next two weeks for the Detroit Lions. Atlanta, Seattle at home, Atlanta at home. And you're trying to sort of validate this win on the road against the Chiefs. Their 10th and Pete's power rankings.


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[Assistant] You know, I thought that was a little low considering that when you get on the opening day, like you gotta, you gotta hold serve at home and go to three and oh, like, like look out, they might be the best team in the NFC. No offense. Third best team in the NFC, second best team in the NFC.


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[Assistant] Well, let's see what happens with the Rams in the 49ers before we get too excited about them.


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[Assistant] It's a little unnerving when, uh, you see the line move to the Texas are now favored, and I'm not exactly sure why.


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[Assistant] I think I'd probably just take the money line with the Colts at this point or wait till they get to a plus number or find a plus number on the money line out there. I just thought what we saw from the.


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[Assistant] The Colts look like a better team and more prepared early on to.


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[Assistant] Sort of a sss... I love that it's a stinky line. Like, nobody wants to bet on the Titans in this game, I promise you that.


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[Assistant] I'm here to tell you, you know, let's just add it to my card. Okay. I'm not going to like it. I'm going to do it anyway.


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[Assistant] Oh, RJ, do you have the titans plus three too? I was gonna say the titans plus three. I think the titans win this game outright.


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[Assistant] Tanael looked like crap against the Saints through three picks. Mike Vrabel is a dog.


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[Assistant] Give me the titans. I'll take, I'll take the titans, add all the titans as a best bet. Sorry, RJ.


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[Assistant] The aforementioned Niners. Doop. I messed that one up, didn't I? You taking us for a break? Take it. You know what? Take it away.


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[Assistant] You know, Niners and the Rams are going to play a football game.


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[Assistant] Somebody's gonna win, somebody's gonna cover, and we'll tell you who, coming up after the break, next! Freddie! Surprise! Dad!


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[Assistant] Yeah. So the people who listen to the podcast and audio form won't, won't hear that. But yes, Frazier, Frazier coming back on Paramount Plus. Look, if you can bring Top Gun back, you can bring Frazier back.


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[Assistant] So it's like 2008, right? It's a 2008 show. It's just like cheese ball, like, like.


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[Assistant] Like, it's like succession before succession, but like back when it was like cheesy and goofy. It's on Netflix right now. It's wildly entertaining. USA Network had some heaters back in the day. Burn Notice. Uhm, trying to think what up. Burn Notice is a great show. Anywho.


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[Assistant] You're on notice, Mox. The Rams are about to put the Niners on notice. 49ers at the Rams. Rams are minus, excuse me, 49ers are minus 8 in this game.


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[Assistant] Was like seven-ish and ticked up to eight. Think of it as high as maybe eight and a half and sort of ticked back down. Um, there's a lot of different ways you can go with this one. I really want to take the Rams as a best bet, but.


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[Assistant] I, cause I think Sean McVeigh is kind of back in his bag. Matthew Stafford looked Sue herb, uh, superb owl on, on last Sunday, had plenty of time in the pocket.


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[Assistant] Ranch pass protected for him. He threw some just inc- passes that only like three or four people on the planet can throw.


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[Assistant] Um, if he's healthy, he's one of the best quarterbacks on, on earth. I mean, he just is like, that's just how, how good and how, how much arm talent he has.


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[Assistant] Puka and Tutu, uh, obviously two of the most popular receivers on planet earth. Um, Kaylin Williams, who, uh, who did a great job getting in the end zone. I think twice the Ram and the rain. Aaron Donald was an absolute freak show. Having said all that.


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[Assistant] I ain't getting in front of this Niners truck stick, not with Kyle Shanahan earning Sean McVay. Katie, do you have several bets on this?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I wouldn't be opposed to it. I mean, I don't like fading Matthew Stafford at all, obviously, but I wouldn't be opposed to it.


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[Assistant] I mean, I kind of hate this game just because I, it's like the theory on like the Giants got absolutely destroyed in week one and the Cardinals were frisky and hung around with Washington. Like it sort of leads you to believe, all right, like, you know, like who, like who's taking the Giants here?


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[Assistant] Who's laying six with the friggin' Giants on the road in week two, even against the Cardinals? I don't know, man.


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[Assistant] Was three, uh, Cowboys minus three at, uh, eight, eight, 15 PM on Monday night by eight 20 PM on Monday night. This line was off the board and was up to nine when it reopened with the news that Aaron Rodgers would not play and Zach Wilson would be going up against his Cowboys defense RJ.


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[Assistant] And like, cause if, if the Bills had done that, they win that football game.


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[Assistant] Like if the Bills just hadn't forced the ball downfield, hadn't made the mistakes, hadn't had the turnovers, they win the football game just because the Jets won't score.


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[Assistant] Elsewhere in NFC East News, the Washington commanders head to Denver, take on the Denver Broncos.


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[Assistant] And the mighty Russell Willsons who did not look very good. It is easy as mighty. It is sure is easy to.


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[Assistant] Uhm, suggest that everyone and their brother will be taking Washington plus three and a half here. Washington didn't look fantastic, but man, the Broncos people are just off the Broncos and laying three and a half with Denver RJ feels a little dangerous.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I love the pats in the spot. Miami is really good. Offense is fantastic.


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[Assistant] Fabric Hill, Jen Waddle, incredible football players. Uh, the Chargers defense just might stink. And like, that's a big problem for Brandon Salie because


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[Assistant] Congrats. You, you have it. You, you turned like Justin Herbert, Austin Eckler, Kenan Allen, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnson, uh, Rashawn Slater, uh, Donald Parham into a good offense.


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[Assistant] Congrats. Why does your defense stink? You're a defensive coach and you've got a bunch of really good defensive players on this team. Why does your defense stink? They got torched by, um, by the Dolphins passing offense. I think you'll see Miami get slowed down a little bit. They were really like,


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[Assistant] Miami kind of felt like it came alive too in the second half. And I think New England would be, New England, Bill Belichick still a mastermind, if you will. Um, shout out, uh, on, uh, on the defensive side of the ball. I thought, I thought the defense looked fantastic against, against Philadelphia.


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[Assistant] And in my opinion, the Pats are an underrated team right now, particularly when it comes to the playoff race because Aaron Rodgers injury like, and I think both teams have to know this is a massive game for the AFC East and for the AFC as a whole because


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[Assistant] If you win this game with Buffalo 0-1, like all of a sudden you can end up in a situation where everybody's 1-1 in the AFC East, uhm, and the Jets don't have Aaron Rodgers. And like, that's a completely different landscape than we thought that we'd have before. I just, I think the Pats are underrated by the market. I'm guessing RJ does too.


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[Assistant] I agree with that. By the way, just before starting the, uh, dolphins last year scored a combined 41 points in two games against the Patriots defense. So like, and, and, and seven of those came at the end of the half in that first game with like eight seconds left on a fourth and eight.


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[Assistant] Where uhm, instead of punting the ball and just like, let Belichick take a knee, might make Daniel throw a quick slant to Jalen Wadu who took it to the house. So like, the Patriots re- like, I know Tua technically has Belichick's number or whatever in terms of the record that he has against him, but like,


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[Assistant] Driving into the stadium, seeing everybody cell gating. I get that ready to go feeling.


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[Assistant] Yes, it is just Max. I did not watch it, but I do love the double entendre.


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[Assistant] That is B.S. High, because it's Bishop Sycamore, of course, which also conveniently was the name of my championship winning fantasy football team last year. But also, of course, B.S. implies no big deal. B.S. implies bull kaka.


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[Assistant] Who lives in Raleigh actually owns the trademark for FireFest because when the guy, when the guy, um, do you go to prison? You go to prison, right?


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[Assistant] And like their tweets were viral because like he was like tweeting out the, like it was a bunch of, um, uh, you know, like the, like the sandwiches, right? Like the sandwich.


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[Assistant] Yeah, like the sandwich, right? The cheese sandwich, right? Exactly. Yeah, I think that was him. He did a bunch of stuff, but anyway, uh, he, I think he was in like, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know all like what details I'm allowed to share, but I do know that he got the trademark while Billy, what's his name was in jail and let it last. And so he's actually owns the trademark for FireFest.


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[Assistant] I was talking with my buddy Adam Gold on Raleigh radio about this earlier. Like the 49ers can be a really good football team and can also have screwed up very badly in the trade. Like those two things can be mutually exclusive. Um, Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch.


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[Assistant] Shouldn't, like, people shouldn't be calling for them to be fired because the Trey Lance thing didn't work out. Like, that's, anybody that goes that far down the road, it's just, it's just too far. Like, they've done a good job building this roster. But when you give away three first round picks and don't get really anything back for it,


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[Assistant] One, that's really bad. And two, it makes it really, really difficult to build a successful roster. Now they've hit on Devo Samuel, not even the first round of George Kittle, right? Uh, they signed Trent Williams. Um, you know, when he was, uh, you know, when he was sort of.


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[Assistant] Like I don't think people knew how good he really was when he was leaving Washington because of, you know, all this, all the stuff going on the side. They trade trade for Christian McCaffrey and you hope that Brock Purdy and Sam Donald are enough. I think there is something to, to it too, where like if you keep Trey Lance around.


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[Assistant] And you're trying to make Brock Purdy the guy and Trey Lance is really unhappy and he's moping and he's sort of like you could have locker room concerns there, viable locker room concerns by making him the third quarterback. I do question whether or not.


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[Assistant] You sure you, you sure you don't want to keep a few, like as many quarterbacks as possible around the championship game? I mean, it's emery to me. That's like, that's sort of the biggest surprise about this trade. And then I think, you know, it's also fair to say.


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[Assistant] Pretty long-term, he's older. There's nothing wrong with taking a stab like this at a quarterback, um, who, who would that kind of pedigree with that kind of upside athletically, especially when if Trey Lance is in Dallas, Trey Lance is in San Francisco and Brett Purdy or Sam Donald struggle.


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[Assistant] There's gonna be calls for Trey Lance. There's way more pressure on Trey Lance in San Francisco than there is in Dallas, where if, like, Dak would have to be completely bomb for Trey Lance to even, like, for there to even be any buzz whatsoever about bringing Trey Lance in.


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[Assistant] And I know, I know I'm not trying to, I think Pete Pritzker does a good job of this pushing back on it. Like, my party's good, right?


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[Assistant] We, we talk about this, we talk about Dak, everyone talks about Dak all the time.


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[Assistant] Like the Cowboys, Cowboys quarterback is, I mean, being an NFL quarterback is the hardest sports related job, uh, in America.


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[Assistant] Dallas Cowboys quarterback is probably like, like a notch above because there was so much focus on you with that team, with that franchise. Um, we saw it with Tony Romo and we've seen it with Dak.


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[Assistant] No matter how well they play or how poorly they play, it's always exaggerated to one side and there's always going to be a polarizing nature to being the Cowboys quarterback. Uhm, Dak led the league in interceptions last year. I think Dak is an underrated quarterback at this point in his career, even if we do know what his ceiling is, uh, you know, versus say, um, you know, like, like other guys out there.


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[Assistant] I mean, to me, this is kind of, it's kind of a nerve-brainer, right? But if Mike McCarthy liked Tray Lance coming out of college, and look, I don't think anybody can say how good Tray Lance will be.


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[Assistant] Because he's only thrown like 540 passes in the last five years since since he left high school or something. The number is crazy.


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[Assistant] You look at the contract though, two years is fully guaranteed. No matter what, cause it's a, it's a first round pick. Um, you can still.


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[Assistant] I believe, yeah, I mean, you could, you have two years to figure out is Trey Lance.


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[Assistant] You know, an incredible quarterback, they might replace the veteran. We've seen, you know, Mike McCarthy was there when Aaron Rodgers, right? Aaron Rodgers replaced Brett Favre. We've seen it happen before. And I think if


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[Assistant] It's, it's hard to know whether this is a Mike McCarthy thing, a Jerry Jones thing. Maybe it's like even a front office, more of a front office decision. Steven Jones, Will McClay. I mean like who, who is pulling the strings on this Trey Lance thing? Who is in love with Trey Lance? And yeah, Dak Prescott has every real reason to be


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[Assistant] A little miffed at the timing of it and the, and the name, the splashy name value, but I don't think this says anything necessarily about Dak Prescott in the immediate future for the Cowboys.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I was gonna say one more thing too. Like if you look at Dax, Dax contract, right? Um, he signed that, you know, if you finally get the deal done after all that back and forth, there's two void years on the back end of 2025 and 2026. And so his contract ends after 2024. Like his contract lines up with Trey Lance. So.


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[Assistant] This gives you two years to say, alright, like after two years, what, like, Dak is 30 years old.


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[Assistant] I mean, not every quarterback is going to play to their 40 and be awesome. Like it's just not going to happen. Like I think Dak will age well. I think Dak will probably still be playing well at the, you know, in two years.


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[Assistant] You know, would the cow, would the cowboys prefer to like sign Trey Lance to a lower contract and then move on from Dak after that deal is up? I think that's entirely possible. Or you'd like franchise tag Trey Lance. If you feel like he is the guy, um, it could end up being a little similar to Rogers and Jordan love too. I think, I mean, like again, you gotta have a quarterback. If you want to win, everybody knows that the Niners or even Vicki McNabb or how that transition went to.


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[Assistant] Was Dak Presley gonna like it? No, absolutely not. But if you can set yourself up where you have a future franchise quarterback and you hit on that, that's how you win long-term in the NFL.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I, you know, I, I think this is the thing with the jets that's sort of gone unsaid. And we talked about this, um, you know, we did, we did the AFC wind turtles and we talked about this and it's like,


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[Assistant] So weird that the jets at no point throughout this entire off season of like insane hype, where they're being talked about on every show, raw, you know, the hard knock stuff. Everyone's loving like what they see from the jets on hard knocks. And at no point, um, did.


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[Assistant] Like they're, they're over under move up. Like it didn't budge at all. It sat at like nine and a half minus one twenty the whole time. And I think there's only one explanation for that. It's the concern with the offensive line.


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[Assistant] This, it is, it is a concern. If it doesn't, it can be the Jets, it can be the Ravens, it can be the Panthers. Pick any team you want in the NFL. I just picked three random ones. Although the third one definitely has offensive line concerns as well. If your offensive line is not good,


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[Assistant] You're not going to be a true Super Bowl contender even if you have a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers playing at a high level because you have to have a good offensive line in the NFL and that's the Jets, but maybe there's going to be an Achilles heel for them. It's your offensive line.


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[Assistant] Uh, well, you know what this reminds me of? You guys remember Office Space?


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[Assistant] Yeaah. And uhm, now I'm forgetting the main character. Peter, Peter's neighbor.


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[Assistant] You know, he has a famous line that I'm not going to repeat because it's inappropriate for a family podcast. But.


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[Assistant] This is an automatic MVP move by Kirk Cousins who is, who is flourishing in the spotlight in a way that I never thought Kirk Cousins would, uh, by, by sort of embracing all the nonsense that he does. And I think becoming much, much, much, much, much more likeable, uh, than he, than he previously was.


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[Assistant] No, I do think if Kurt Cousins, can you imagine if Kurt Cousins was the Cowboys quarterback? My God, it would be so cool. I feel like Kurt Cousins catches a lot more heat.


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[Assistant] He did, he did, he did go through it coming out of Washington though. Like he was a polarizing dude in Washington, did the double franchise tag. His, the old GM called him Kurt, like just to spite him when he was talking about these contracts in the media. And so, yeah, I mean like he, he, he has gotten the bag though. He has gotten baseball money.


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[Assistant] Uhm, is this like a, is this like something that we have in house for CBS? Or is this like, I mean, I love it.


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[Assistant] Conveniently close from an alphabetical standpoint, Breach.


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[Assistant] I think, so I think I would rather bet.


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[Assistant] On the Niners to lose in the Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] At plus 750, then the Niners to win the Super Bowl at 10 to 1.


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[Assistant] That makes sense. Cause you're coming. The diners are obviously a really, really good team, but like more than likely they won't be favored in the super bowl. So I think.


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[Assistant] Right? I guess the Chiefs are the Bills, Bengals, maybe I pick them. They'll be close. Yea.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I just feel like 10 to 1 is a little short for me. Yeah.


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[Assistant] I understand that they've decided where they're at with their quarterback and they are confident and comfortable with Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold, but I don't think it's definitively solved. Um, miss the playoffs at plus three sixties too. I would want more than that. I think, um, lose the conference championship game four to one. It's like, I just trying to get the most bang for my buck on a team that I think, yeah, like those are all too short. So I want the,


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[Assistant] I think, personally, that minus 180 to miss the playoffs is kind of a hammer.


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[Assistant] I think it's, I think, I think that the, the minus 180.


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[Assistant] I don't know. Uh, I think that the minus 184, the bears...


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[Assistant] 80 to 1 and 150 to 1 to like lose in the Superbowl or win in the Superbowl is like a wild, like, despair.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I'm actually glad I didn't get the Panthers. I don't know, I don't know that I'm prepared.


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[Assistant] To, uh, to do that. The bills are tough because you have plus 225 to miss the playoffs. It's not.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I wouldn't, AFC is just really tough. I think, I mean, I'm a lot higher on Buffalo than, than a lot of people. I think I will go with a six to one to lose. So it's nine to one to win the Superbowl, 10 to one to lose the Superbowl. I don't think.


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[Assistant] I think six to one to lose in the conference championship game is the play there. I can see them advancing and then you see them get either. I mean,


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[Assistant] I don't know. Maybe they'll go to Arrowhead to play the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. That wouldn't be surprising at all. Maybe they'll have to deal with the Bengals or even the Jaguars. Like there's a lot of teams that could knock them out in the Cover Championship game. So I think that's the best value versus the Super Bowl value.


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[Assistant] Yeah, like I think, I think the bills are the...


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[Assistant] I think the bills are, I think the bills are going to win the division. I think people are selling the bills too quickly. And so like I,


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[Assistant] Like, I think they'll win the division. I've been saying all along, I like to bet them to win the division all off season. Plus money, I think it's a great value. Uh, especially if the Jets offensive line is a, is a, is a problem. So like, I don't, I think I would want like four to one.


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[Assistant] Four to one more to miss the playoffs, I think, for Buffalo, because I think they're a much better bet to make the playoffs than people think.


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[Assistant] I think Washington's a little sneakier maybe to, to be a wild card team that people give them credit for. Is it likely? No, just like the Rams, right? Like you don't expect it to happen. But I mean, if Sam Howell ends up being a good quarterback and he uses his legs as much as like he did in college and doesn't get hurt.


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[Assistant] And we see them protect him and that defense is as strong as it could be. I think, I think they're like a.


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[Assistant] Alright, time for some more wheel of... Spinarama. Spinarama, I mean, yes. Spinarama, reach us up.


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[Assistant] I wish we could rewind in time and have Breach going, the Denver Broncos will win the Super Bowl and pair it up against like a mashup of like every like disastrous offensive situation with Denver last year.


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[Assistant] You never get 45 to one on teams that in theory you could have an elite quarterback and an elite coach. Like this is the only chance if, if, if champagne can fix Russell Wilson, this is the only chance you'll have to buy low on Denver now.


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[Assistant] It's 45 to one. It's not supposed to happen. I don't expect it to happen. I'm just saying.


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[Assistant] They got the coach. They've got a quarterback. If he's not broken, if he is fixable.


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[Assistant] Then, you know, 45 to 1 is not crazy. I'm not, I'm not making the bet. I just.


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[Assistant] So the Packers are minus two ten to miss the playoffs.


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[Assistant] Plus 350, three, three and a half to one to lose in the wild card round.


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[Assistant] It feels like this a little short. I'd like a little bit more than that. I don't. So I think with it, with it, when you're making, when you're making this decision, right? Let's say that, um, you believe in Jordan love and believe in Matt LaFleur and think that this offense can be good enough to, to win them enough to games. And in, in, in NFC North, that is wide open. I don't think you can bank on them to win a playoff game.


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[Assistant] I don't want to lay the minus two 10 so I'd go plus three 50 but I think you could just go bet on them.


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[Assistant] I think it's really unlikely for them to get the number one seed, right? And I think it's really unlikely for them to win a playoff game. So I would have been on aggrieve A to win the division.


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[Assistant] Which I think is like four or five to one, isn't it? Um, let me check real quick. Division winner is, where is it? North.


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[Assistant] You can bet on the package at four to one to win the division. So I'd rather bet on that than bet on, I'm just saying like, I'm going to say to lose in the wild card round as part of the game, but instead of doing that, bet on them to win the division because


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[Assistant] Yeah, maybe take plus 350. I don't know. I think, I think, I think, I think the package should be better than people think.


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[Assistant] I have lions, Packers, Vikings, Bears, and in that order in the MSC North, I believe. And so I, I, I don't think it's impossible that the Packers should win the division, um, or be competitive. So I like, I like, I like green Bay, like plus three 50 to lose in the wild card round.


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[Assistant] Like they could get, they could, I mean, they could get the Rams in a wild card matchup.


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[Assistant] You didn't seem plausible as I was sort of going through the, the scenarios in my head.


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[Assistant] Well, and it's also like a different bad too. It was like the Sean was off the didn't play football. Didn't play NFL football for what like?


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[Assistant] How, how long was it? It was like a year and a half, right? I mean, like, and, and then when he played, he came back mid season after being suspended after a very high profile suspension.


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[Assistant] If he, if he plays like old Deshaun, I mean the Browns...


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[Assistant] I just don't think 35 to 1 to win the Super Bowl is just wild to me.


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[Assistant] One of those chargers, Broncos, uh, jets, dolphins, like teams that like everybody is kind of penciling in the.


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[Assistant] Like, AFC is like, oh, here's what the player, here's what the AFC is going to be. Here's the playoffs. It's pretty much set. It's like, it's like, that's not how this ever happens. Like never, never is it like, oh, duh. It's the teams that everyone thought were going to like win ended up winning it. That never happens.


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[Assistant] So, you know, you gotta be a little creative when you're picking up division bets in Super Bowl futures, which we're going to do very quickly right now. And we'll start with me. Sure. Uh, I will start the AFC East where the Buffalo Bills are plus one 20 to win the division. It's a preposterous number.


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[Assistant] The Buffalo Bills are really, really good. They have, they have taken this division away from the Patriots. They are the new dominant team in this division. I understand Aaron Rodgers in town. Uh, that number is creeped up by the way. Jets were two to one. It's all the way up to plus 270.


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[Assistant] Dolphins at 3-1 and the Patriots 8-1. To me, the Bills at plus 120 is very similar to the Chiefs last year who closed at plus 160 to win the AFC West and then like stomped everybody into that, into that division, rolled to it and of course won the Super Bowl. Katie, do you have any interest in the Chiefs this year?


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[Assistant] Look, I mean, look at these numbers that we're looking at right here, right? The Chiefs are minus 165. The Jags are minus 155. I understand the AFC South is much worse than the AFC West in totality.


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[Assistant] Ten cents less likely to win the division than the Chiefs. That should be a way bigger separation just to point to both those bets by Katie and by Breach. Like I think the Chiefs should be like minus 250. I think Jags should be like plus 100, like even money to win the division. Minus 155. Like they're just not that close to the Chiefs. Uh, Emery, what's your favorite division or Super Bowl bets?


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[Assistant] Ooh, an all-birds Super Bowl? Wait, that was my Super Bowl pick from last year. It was Eagles and Ravens. It was going to be the first all-birds Super Bowl. So maybe, Emery, you will get that honor this year. Katie, you actually don't hate the Ravens, the idea of the Ravens winning the Super Bowl. You might even have a better, you didn't give this out, you didn't give it away, did you?


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[Assistant] No, I'm going to go in a, yeah, I'm going to completely blow it up because I'm going to take a Super Bowl X-Acto bet. Oh.


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[Assistant] But the lions, but the lions beat the Jags too, just in case it is that actual matchup. So you want to have that covered because that would really suck if you got a Jaguars. Like I think you could actually get 250 to one or something like that just for just, just for those two to meet in the Superbowl somewhere if you want to do that. So, uh, perfectly fine with either one, but I love the idea of like,


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[Assistant] Being so, so early on these two trendy losers who are suddenly very popular, uh, to have them meet in the Superbowl.


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[Assistant] CBS Super Bowl, Jags, Lions, I'm feeling, I'm feeling spicy.


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[Assistant] Sure, sure. History. No, it's true. Sure. I like it. All birds, all cats.


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[Assistant] Yeah, absolutely, Brinson. I thought this was a total blast. I had such a great time combining two of my absolute favorite things and futures and a draft. I absolutely love the format, but the strategy was very interesting. As you guys pointed out, having the large units, uh,


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[Assistant] So I really think it benefits you to kind of take long shots when you're looking at those awards just based on kind of the units that were allotted.


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[Assistant] Coming into the off-season, obviously a lot of hype. Justin Fields had the fantastic season, but really looking at this defense, it was historically bad last year. Uh, they were big players in free agency. They just signed two off-ball linebackers to a combined hundred million dollars.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I couldn't agree more here. I was actually funny. RJ and I were talking on a Friday and I was telling him I thought Geno Smith was potentially a regression candidate and he really just encouraged me to just take a look at Seattle's roster. I remember spending the entire weekend


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[Assistant] Very strong, made significant upgrades there. Adding Bobby Wagner to the linebacking core, he still played at a very high rate despite being on that terrible Rams team last year. Added Draymond Jones, Jaren Reed to the defensive line.


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[Assistant] Bigsby is going to handle a lot of that short yardage red zone work as well. I think this would be a big number for ETN. Even if Bigsby wasn't on the roster with Bigsby on the roster, in my opinion, his touchdown number should be four and a half. They're going to have to come from 20 yards out. So absolutely love fading Travis ETN under six and a half rushing touchdowns.


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[Assistant] In a situation where it becomes pretty clear that there's not a chalice, uh, out there for them in 2023. And then the directive is going to kind of come down to, hey, well, we need to look at CalTrack because we're, we're going to be firmly, um, we think.


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[Assistant] And I like Green Bay a lot this week as well that we'll get to. But like Tre, Trevor Simeon has been in the league for a while, like I don't think Trevor Simeon's gonna pee down his leg against Atlanta's backups.


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[Assistant] And yeaah, I like some of what I saw from, from the Bengals. Uh, we, we know that they lost their safeties. I really like Dax Hill. And again, I'm not sure how much he's gonna play in this game. But I, I just am not really buying the Falcons in, in general.


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[Assistant] But they are, and to me this screams out more like, oh, well, you know, the Bengals kind of sort of got blown out last week. And so this is one of the heavier spreads in the league. Uhm, I'm just.


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[Assistant] I like Cincinnati to keep this game a little bit close. I like Cincinnati's depth and some key spots a little more than Atlantis. And again, if it is a whole lot of, of Simien, if Simien plays the first half, I think Simien will lead a couple of scoring drives.


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[Assistant] I know that there's people out there looking at Andy Reed and how he's handled games before, you know.


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[Assistant] Zona, this is their Super Bowl. You know, you've got a young coach there trying to prove a point to his owner. Um, they're trying to prove a point that they can look like an effective offense without Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray holding them back. They will play this game to win. Um, and seven and a half is just way too many points for me. Yeah, I can't imagine that Andy Reed


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[Assistant] We'll really give a damn about the final 30 minutes of this game, right? That's for Brett Veach. Might, might be. But, yes.


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[Assistant] I think Packers minus 37. Yeah. Packers cover here. Uhm, it is my second favorite play of the week. Uh, consciously or subconsciously.


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[Assistant] I think he might play a half. I think he'll play as long as they not need more than one probably scoring drive. Uhm, they're trying to sell.


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[Assistant] The present and the future in a way there they haven't had to in a long time. And they're getting a pretty, pretty good opponent here because the New England Patriots don't believe in speed twitch. They don't believe in quick twitch. They don't believe in supreme athletes, at least not on


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[Assistant] And uhm, and this Clifford kid looked pretty interesting last week too, so I'm on the package here.


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[Assistant] Yeaah, I like Washington to win this football game and this is my favorite play of the weekend. Uhm, the Ravens again, incredibly risk-averse and since they last played, they had one really NFL starting corner on their roster, Marlon Humphrey. Now he's had foot surgery.


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[Assistant] Who they're trying to convert from corner to safety led their defense and snaps played last week. Uhm, these two teams practiced together two days this week. I know on the Washington side, they feel like guys like Mark Andrews were taking liberties that the Ravens started most of those fights and they have their first home game with this new owner.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I've got my eyes on DeAndre Hopkins as a potential bounce-back candidate. His receiving yards is currently around 50. Uh, last week, didn't practice all week, still ended up playing, uh, didn't look particularly good despite Tannehill having the good game.


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[Assistant] He's already logged to practice yesterday, which is certainly a good sign, full participation. So I think we're going to see a healthy DeAndre Hopkins in this matchup. I like him to go over 50 yards. As far as the Browns are concerned, offensive players on there, I was really impressed with Jerome Ford, but this is a matchup in my opinion.


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[Assistant] Or it might be worth fading him. Tennessee's rush defense, in my opinion, is as good as any in the league. Last year they were first in rushing DVOA. This is carried over this year with Jeffrey Simmons clogging up that middle for Tennessee. So I think this is a potential spot to fade Jerome Ford. Uh, really tough to watch Cleveland's passing game. Elijah Moore continues to have a huge target share.


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[Assistant] I'm just kind of avoiding this Cleveland offense, especially in this matchup against Tennessee.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think this is going to be an explosive game, especially as, uh, you guys mentioned between the twenties in particular. So I love RJ's prop on cousins. Uh, I think.


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[Assistant] Both teams will be able to ball quite a bit. I'm probably looking to invest in a lot of cheap pieces on both sides of the football. We obviously know. I think I saw Justin Jefferson's receiving prop is over triple digits. It's over 100 yards right now. I don't know if I've ever seen that, uh, looking at props and


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[Assistant] History, uh, so yeaah, pretty impressive number there for her, er, for, excuse me, for Jefferson, uh,


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[Assistant] Uh, considering how cheap he's going to be both DFS is receiving crop hasn't come out yet. I'd imagine it'll be around 30 to 35 yards. That's certainly someone I might potentially target.


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[Assistant] Not a lot here. I agree with you Brynson. I think we're looking at a very conservative game plan from both coaches. I think we're going to see a run heavy approach as well. The Patriots, as RJ mentioned though, have just been so ineffective.


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[Assistant] Running the football. That offensive line is just not generating much push at all. No open running lanes for Ramondre Stevenson. As a result, we've seen just a high volume passing attack from New England, which is obviously not what they're looking to do. So yeaah, this is mostly a stay away from me. Very low numbers in this. Might look at Priest Hall. Couple of the running backs, but yeaah, not a lot that I'd like.


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[Assistant] Yeah, taking the wadency approach any of these games that could be heavily impacted by the weather. Uh, I, I was really encouraged by Mike, or excuse me, Mark Andrews usage and his season debut in week two. I expect, uh, that to continue to be a trend. Obviously the rookie is a flower, super impressive.


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[Assistant] That big fourth quarter reception, even though the quiet game prior to that just shows he has a big playability, can make a huge, uh, impact.


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[Assistant] Pretty much any time. So yeah, I think this is a good spot for Mark Andrews potentially, uh, against a soft cover zone of the Colts, uh, could have 6-7 receptions in this game. But yeah, just gonna kind of wait and see what the weather pans out before I make any plays.


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[Assistant] Obviously the first game, Tyler Algier out carried Bijan. That was not the case in week two. I do not expect that to be the case in week three against a Lions game that certainly should be up tempo. I think this game is going to feature a lot of offenses. Obviously we have two top 10 running backs.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think Russ has looked good when there's been a clear game script for him and when there's been design plays for him. When he's had to ad lib though is when he's looked like the Russ that we saw last year in Denver. So it's kind of been a tale of two halves. He's looked good early on in the game and then it's kind of tailed off.


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[Assistant] As the games progress, I agree with RJ. Uh, Mims playing 16 snaps is inexcusable when he offers that level of explosion. Uh, he needs to be on the field more absolutely. Denver definitely having a tough time.


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[Assistant] Uh, very impressed, three down, versatile skill set, has eight receptions through two games. Last week, Dante Foreman, who they signed to a one-year, $2 million guaranteed contract, was inactive. So yeah, I think Rashaun Johnson is going to continue to be utilized more and more by Chicago's offense. Uh, yeah, I could see him potentially overtaking Khalil Herbert.


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[Assistant] As the feature back last week, they were splitting series up until, uh, Chicago was just forced to abandon the run. So I like him over 34 and a half rushing plus receiving yards. I think he's going to be on the field quite a bit. I think he offers a three down skillset. Obviously we've seen Justin Fields throwing in the ball considering he's got eight receptions and limited playing time. So he's definitely a player on the rise and a guy I like this week.


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[Assistant] Yep, couldn't agree more. I think CD Lamb is ready to take that leap into the elite tier. I'm talking like the Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill. So impressed with CD Lamb so far this season. Love him in this spot this week to go over 69 and a half receiving yards. For one, the Cardinals are a significant pass funnel. Teams that play them opt to go


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[Assistant] The Steelers, I don't think they have been a significant run funnel. We saw Jerome Ford with the monster game versus them. Nick Chubb obviously was off to a great start as well. Week one, Christian McCaffrey rushed all over, excuse me, all over Pittsburgh. I expect Josh Jacobs, who's had a very slow start.


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[Assistant] To do anything other than that, uhm, maybe for different reasons, varying by, uh, locale, maybe with some owners, uhm, a little more heavily involved than others, but regardless I think it's gonna be the same outcome.


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[Assistant] Uhm, with Emery, I think you'll see second half quarterback play that's going to be better in these games than a lot of other ones. And I'm a Bailey Zappi truth. I actually think Bailey Zappi gives them a better chance to win.


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[Assistant] Look, I think it's going to be real difficult based on where they took Mac Jones and the fact that this coordinator obviously has a history with that Alabama program and Mac Jones. However, I believe Bailey Zappi is going to give them something to think about.


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[Assistant] But I do believe that Bailey Zappi will play well enough that he plants a seed in everybody's head. That like, if Bill O'Brien doesn't have Matt Jones looking like whatever they think first round pick Matt Jones is supposed to look like by week 6 or week 7 and the defense is pretty good and they're protecting the football by and large except for when the quarterback turns it over. Uhm, yeaah.


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[Assistant] I, I, I find it, I find that situation maybe more interesting than most. Maybe that's just me.


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[Assistant] Well, I mean, look at the chess early season schedule, right? I mean, I think, uhm, looks pretty daunting to me. Uh, I...


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[Assistant] Nox, like you, you can try to sell me on a lot of stuff about that team, but.


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[Assistant] Just listen to how Jim Ursay gushes about Peyton Manning's 3-13 season. Talks about Peyton Manning's 3-13 season like it was 13-3. Because in his mind, it ultimately was, right? Because it was the beginning of the springboard to the only sustained success he's had as an owner, right? Is when Peyton Manning fell on his lap.


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[Assistant] Uh, but yeaah, I'm the PR guy, I'm the coach, I'm the GM, and I'm the owner all wrapped in one. I invented football. Just ask me. So, uh, yeaah, I, I...


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[Assistant] I don't, but they kept him. Why? Because I think the owner likes having him around. So I just don't think that whole thing is going to work for this game.


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[Assistant] I think they could be, yea, that was three names ago, uh, and thank God, two owners ago. Uh, I think...


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[Assistant] Mark Andrews replaced the divot because his leg twisted a little bit. Andrews, you're done. You're out. You're out of 11 on 11. You're bubble wrapped.


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[Assistant] Hey everybody, welcome to the Pick 6 podcast. Katie Mox here, flying solo today. Will Brinson is on vacation, but of course, welcome back to our All 32 series, the series where we catch you up with insiders from


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[Assistant] Every team and give you the need to know information heading into the season today. We're diving into the Denver Broncos of Broncos beat reporter for the Denver post Parker, Gabriel Parker, happy training camp. The rookies have reported. How are we feeling?


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[Assistant] Football season is almost here and y'all have your joint practices with the Rams, which should be super interesting. Any matchups that you're looking forward to in those practices.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'll be looking forward to see that, uh, Aaron Donald versus everybody situation. Uh, but let's get right into it. We are going to talk about the O line in a little bit, but you know, last season,


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[Assistant] This team would be in the AFC. You know, that didn't happen. Nathaniel Hackett is gone. The legendary Sean Payton is in. What is the biggest difference that you have seen with this team and also just as an organization with Payton running the show?


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[Assistant] Right, I mean, I think there was so much reported about Russell Wilson's relationship with Nathaniel Hackett and I do know that


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[Assistant] One of Russell Wilson's favorite quarterbacks was always Drew Brees. Of course, Sean Payton was his coach for a long time. Does the relationship between Russell Wilson and Sean Payton seem really solid?


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[Assistant] Alright, well let's talk about Russell Wilson's game because, you know, in his career with the Seahawks, his stats were consistently solid. He had at least 20 touchdown passes, uh,


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[Assistant] per year. He had 61% of those passes every single season. And then the graphic was just on there.


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[Assistant] Last year, career low, only 16 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, QBR of just 36.7%,


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[Assistant] How are the vibes going into this season with Russell Wilson and what is a realistic expectation of what he can do with his team under Sean Payton?


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[Assistant] I would lean towards last year was more of an outlier and hopefully he will get back to the player that we've seen throughout his career with the Seahawks. You know, we talked about the O-line in the beginning.


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[Assistant] Any penalties, which you're definitely going to need with McGlinchey on the field. I will tell you as a Niners fan, that guy will get you some false starts.


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[Assistant] You know, for this offense to really rejuvenate, the ground game is going to be paramount. How has bolstering this O-line not only to protect Wilson, but really get that ground game going.


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[Assistant] Yeah, certainly taking a lot of pressure off of Russell Wilson. You know, this two headed monster of Javante Williams and P Ryan. It's pretty scary for opposing teams. Williams is optimistic that he will be cleared in time for training camp.


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[Assistant] Assuming that they're going to want to ease Williams back into the lineup, it's going to put more work and carries on P Ryan specifically on third down. Any concerns about this running back room heading into the season?


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[Assistant] Alright, looking at this, uh, wide receiver room, uh, you guys did draft rookie Marvin Mims this year in the second round and with KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick both recovering from surgeries, you know, Mims is going to get some early reps in training camp and, you know, he could make some noise here. What are your expectations for this rookie? Can he actually take a spot in this receiver room?


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[Assistant] Alright, we're gonna take a quick break here. We get back, we're gonna talk Denver defense. Always been solid, but are they a little light in one area? You're watching Pick Six, we'll be right back.


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[Assistant] We know that Sean Payton has made a lot of changes on the offense. Denver should definitely be able to move the ball better down the field. Now if we look at the defense, they've always been solid in this area. Y'all have talent at pretty much all three levels of defense.


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[Assistant] But there are depth concerns upfront. Does this concern you at all? What would you say is the biggest weakness of the Denver defense heading into the season?


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[Assistant] Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Alright, this is a gambling show.


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[Assistant] So we gotta ask you some questions about the season here. The Broncos, you know, again, last year, super high expectations. This year, maybe a little bit more realistic to win the AFC West there at plus 475. Chiefs, of course, the favorite. It's gonna be hard to compete. Uh, and then you got the Chargers, which I think is probably


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[Assistant] You know, in line with what the Broncos can do this year, then the Raiders have so many question marks. Any chance that you would lay the plus 475 on the Broncos this year to win the AFC West?


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[Assistant] Alright, let's find other things to do with your money. Looking at this win total, it's at eight and a half. With the over juice to minus 115, Broncos getting nine wins this season. When you look at their schedule, can they do it?


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[Assistant] Alright, so let's look at Russell Wilson. They added a bunch of past casters for him. They beefed up the O line there. When you look at his


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[Assistant] Yards, uh, passing yards. It's what? 3000. I can't choose. Well, 3000.


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[Assistant] Do you see this as an over for him this year given what they've been able to provide him in the offseason?


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[Assistant] Okay, he's got that 24 and a half passing touchdowns over or under for that one.


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[Assistant] Alright, looking at this run game, you know, we talked about this. Samaj Piran is, uh, his over-under for yards is 600 and a half. He will start out this season as RB1. We'll see how that, you know, happens throughout the season. 600 to me seems kind of low for him. What are you taking on this?


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[Assistant] Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and take that over. Last thing, we didn't talk about him too much, but Jerry, Judy, obviously a big receiver for you guys. I know they've added some more pass catchers may cut into some of his catches, but the over under on his yard is 925 and a half. How do you feel about Judy?


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[Assistant] Take the under very slight. Okay, last question. Coach of the year, Sean Payton has the second shortest odds, uh, just because Arthur Smith and Dan Campbell are tied at the top at plus 1000. He's at plus 1200. If he could turn this team around and be a big competitor in the AFC, how do you feel about Sean Payton as coach of the year?


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[Assistant] Okay, well the vibes are high again for Denver. We hope it is a better season. Thank you so much to Parker Gabriel. You can catch his articles on the Denver Post. Stay tuned for more from our All 32 series with daily drops in your podcast feed and on YouTube. Remember to like,


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[Assistant] What's up, y'all? Welcome to the Fix6 Podcast. Katie Mox and Will Brinson here, joined by the czar of the playbook, Anne-Marie Hunt. If you missed the last episode, we broke down week two of the preseason and gave our best bets for each. We had a full


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[Assistant] You can try, uhm, uh, tea, tea bags too, like a green tea, something with caffeine will help.


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[Assistant] By the way, Niners Moneyline and Niners Over cashed Moneyline just by one point there, Emory. Uh, you were on that. That was a fun game. Obviously, you know, I always want to talk about the 49ers. Curious what you guys thought.


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[Assistant] Oh, bad beats. But what y'all think of Trey Lance? Cause he actually looked pretty good. Uh, you know, he gets a lot of hate left and right. Emery, any thoughts on how Trey looks?


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[Assistant] Yeah, Emory, you, you got me on that, that over in the Packers game, but I will say I was right about the Packers. They did not play as well, did not score as many points, but that, that game sailed over the 37. So you got me on that one. All right, guys, let's, let's get into some season awards here, starting at the top with league MVP. But before we do got a couple of trivia questions for both of you.


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[Assistant] So who has won the most MVP awards in the league?


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[Assistant] Yeah, well Payne has the most at five. That's, that's what I know here. Uhm, alright, so before they changed the name to be the most valuable player, the award was called what? From 1938 to 1946.


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[Assistant] It's, this, this one's hard. It's the Joe F Carr Trophy.


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[Assistant] Alright, thank you so much for that Brinson. You wrote several articles on CBSsports.com breaking down these award markets and you've tiered them as a favorite, a mid-range, and a long shot. So, uh, we'll follow your lead here.


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[Assistant] I like those. Uhm, I think when you look at the favorite, I'm not afraid to go chalk here with my homes at plus 600 even to go back to back. I don't think we've seen the ceiling for my homes and as long as the chiefs are still the chiefs.


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[Assistant] And you still have Reid as the coach and you still have the best tight end in the league and Travis Kelsey and the best quarterback in the league. I don't think it's impossible that he goes back to back there. Middle range, uhm, I'm agreeing with, uh, Emory here and taking Aaron Rodgers.


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[Assistant] Neither of you are that high on the Jets, but I certainly am. I like them over their win total. I have been watching them on Hard Knocks. Maybe I'm drinking a little bit of the Kool-Aid here.


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[Assistant] But it just seems like we have a different Aaron Rodgers. You know, he has won this award several times. He has some weapons there. I think that Garrett Wilson is special and we're gonna see a lot of crazy things from the two of them this year. So I like him. I took my odds earlier from Caesar's at plus 1500. I'm not sure what it is on the Draft Kings.


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[Assistant] Coming from being the worst team in the NFL last year, uhm, I do think that that is a pretty good bet.


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[Assistant] I love that Debo pic, actually, and I do think that, you know, with Christian McCaffrey coming to San Francisco, Debo doesn't want to be outshined. You know, he was...


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[Assistant] The, the, the wide back beforehand. He didn't have a bad season last season, but I think Christian McCaffrey took a lot of that shine away. So it seems to be that he's really motivated to show that he is just as good. So I do really like that pick.


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[Assistant] Obviously we know with me, Christian McCaffrey is the favorite, like I've said it on this program probably a little less than 50 times, so we don't need to go into that again. I also think Tyree Kill is kind of interesting here, uhm, at plus 2000. He's coming off the best year of his career and he didn't even have to.


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[Assistant] the entire time. Now this is under the assumption that Tua is healthy and Tua has a good year. There's no reason to think that Tyra Kill should not be a contender for this. And at plus 2000, I really like that value.


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[Assistant] This guy had 14 touchdowns last year with Derek Carr. And if Jimmy Garoppolo knows how to do anything, it's to get the ball to the star wide receiver. He can do this. And look, it's only the preseason. But what we've seen from the Raiders is that they do have depth. I think their backups are better than a lot of backups that we've seen.


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[Assistant] Raiders might be sneaky, not terrible this year. And you look at someone like Devonte Adams at plus 3000. I just, I just think that's this too much to give him. So I love that one.


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[Assistant] Welcome back to the Pick Six Podcast. Katie Mox, Will Brinson, and Emery Hunt here. Alright guys, let's move on to Defensive Player of the Year. When you look at these odds, uh, Nick Bosa coming off his first win has the fifth best odds at plus 1100. At least he did on Caesars. We'll see what it pulls up here on DraftKings. Uh, Micah Parsons is, or Parsons, excuse me, is the favorite at, what does it say, plus 500 there? Plus 500.


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[Assistant] Yeah, so different. So make sure if you like something, look at all the books, uh, that you have money in and bet with the best, uh, line that you can get there. Okay. One more trivia question for the fellas. And this one, I mean, I think it's pretty easy. Okay. How many times has a Watt brother won defensive player of the year?


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[Assistant] That is correct. Four. Now who can name what years and assign a name to it?


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[Assistant] We know you're not a cheater. We know you're not a cheater, so that's good to know. Okay, let's go in reverse this time. Emery, first give us your long shot, then your mid-range, and then your favorite for Defensive Player of the Year.


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[Assistant] My long shot, it's not a terrible long shot, and you'll have to help me because when I was on Caesar's, Aaron Donald was listed at plus 2600. What does it say there on the screen?


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[Assistant] Anytime you can get Aaron, or excuse me, yeah, Aaron Donald considered a sleeper, you're gonna have to go ahead and take that. And I know that the Rams are not supposed to be good this year. They're in retooling, but you know, Donald missed some time last year, but this guy is an absolute beast and he's always going to be up there for me. So I like him as a little bit of a long shot.


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[Assistant] Uh, middle tier, probably not gonna happen. Uh, Nick Bosa, uh, 11 to 1 at Caesars. What is he here, Brinson?


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[Assistant] Okay, I love that. And I do think that the Niners defense, again, number one, uh, in the league, we'll see how they are under Steve Wilkes, but, uhm, I like that. And then also TJ Watt. I'm going back to the Watt farm, uh, here, and...


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[Assistant] Cesar's until last season where he had a low of five and a half sacks due to obviously tearing his pectoral muscle. He finished in the top three of defensive player of the year voting in four consecutive years before he won in 2021. Like you said, for instance, there isn't exactly voter fatigue for this category and you just look at


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[Assistant] He missed seven games. They went one and six in those games. This guy is an absolute game changer. So I like TJ Watt is my favorite.


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[Assistant] I like that. I agree with you on Anthony Richardson. That's been my favorite for a long time. And I will say a month ago on Caesar's, he was nine to one. And now what are we looking at him here? Plus 600. So you could have got him for.


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[Assistant] or better, but all the, all the reasons that you said, Emory, I think, you know, in a Shane Steichen led offense, uh, we saw how he was able to develop Jalen hurts with the Eagles. You gotta think that there's a huge upside for Richardson here.


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[Assistant] So uhm, love him as a favorite. And then I don't have a third one, but I like Zay Flowers. Uhm, at Caesar he's at plus 25.


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[Assistant] Past two offensive rookies of the years have gone to receivers, so why not make it a third with Zay Flowers? And you look at this Ravens.


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[Assistant] This offense is generating a ton of buzz right now. I think they're gonna be a much more pass heavy team than they have been in the past. And you look at someone like Flowers, he had what?


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[Assistant] 78 passes, over a thousand yards, 12 touchdowns with a crappy quarterback.


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[Assistant] I love it. Alright, let's move on to Defensive Rookie of the Year. Last year, Sask Garner took home the honors by considerable margin with 242 points in 46 first place votes. This award has been dominated by first round picks with Colts linebacker Shaq Leonard is the only


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's not exactly that there are three, but I'm actually, I know that pass rushers are typically viewed as the favorites here, but I'm going cornerbacks, uh, for.


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[Assistant] A couple of these and they have got some love in recent years. I'm looking first at witherspoon at plus, uh, I think he's at plus 1000 plus 1100. I don't know what is on those odds there, but.


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[Assistant] One, I just look at him in this Seahawks defense, and I think he is going to start first of all, because in the last five years, the winner of the award has logged at least 76% or more of the team's defensive snaps.


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[Assistant] I do think that he's gonna start this season opposite Tariq Wolin. Uh, you know, he's coming off of a season last year in Illinois where he had 14 pass breakups, three interceptions. You look at the Seahawks schedule and they're going against some gunslingers, right? You got Burrow, Stafford, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott. He could be primed, uh, for some big interceptions and certainly breaking up.


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[Assistant] Uh, well, thank- thank you, Billy, for the, uh, extra airtime here. But also, for more of a long shot, I'm looking at Joey Porter Jr., uh, with the Steelers. I believe he's at plus 2,000. They haven't had a Defensive Rookie of the Year since 2001 with Kendrell Bell.


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[Assistant] But I think he could have gone in the first round, and certainly he slid down the draft a bit. A lot of draft analysts thought that he would be selected in the first round. I think he's got a little bit of a chip on his shoulder. Also, when you look at uhm, wow, hell, what's, Billy!


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[Assistant] Uhm, but when you look at Pittsburgh, right, they're so dominant up front. And what does that do to quarterbacks? Well, it forces them to get the ball out faster, leaving a lot of room for the secondary to shine with either.


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[Assistant] Past deflections or some interceptions. So I'm kind of going the cornerback route on this one. I think Joey Porter Jr. at plus 2000 is kind of a sneaky pick.


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[Assistant] Alright, and we are going to toss to break right here. We are next going to talk about Coach of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year. You might think that Damar Hamlin is a lock, and he definitely is, but we'll have some more picks.


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[Assistant] I like those and I agree with you guys that this is definitely a narrative based awards and the best coaches aren't even gonna be in consideration even though maybe they should. Uh, I like Chicago. Again, I like, uh, Iver Fluss at plus 1300. I believe there it looks like he's 11 to 1.


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[Assistant] Uhm, you know, I feel like also rookie head coaches are favorite on this a lot. Dable took home the honors last season, uh, making him the knight.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I think that he has a good chance of winning this. I mean, they, they really did well with the draft capital from dealing their number one overall. They added those pass catchers. We already talked about this when I was talking about fields a little bit earlier. I think that Chicago can win the NFC North. Uhm, and if they do, and they do a little better coming from the worst team,


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[Assistant] To now all of a sudden a good team. Uh, I like Ibra Fluss there. I also like Robert Sala.


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[Assistant] Look, the Jets have been a poverty franchise for a very long time. Robert Sala comes in. They have a decent year last year. Now you get Aaron Rodgers. Let's say they go as far as I think they can go. Robert Sala's kind of a good pick for that.


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[Assistant] You know, Brinson, we're high on D'Amico Ryan's. Uh, it's a little bit concerning how many injuries the Texans have, uh, going on right now in the preseason. But D'Amico Ryan's, uhm, at 20 to 1 or wherever he is here.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I think it's gonna be a good bet if the Texans do come out and have a good year.


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[Assistant] I love that. Alright, let's move on, uhm, to comeback player of the year, Brinson. Is there a world?


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[Assistant] Or Damar Hamlin does not win this. He's currently priced at minus 285. And then, uh, next up you got Russell Wilson into a following with plus 2000 odds. I mean, there's just, I don't know what would have to happen that Damar doesn't win.


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[Assistant] That's the barometer. That's the meter that we're using.


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[Assistant] I agree. I mean, it's, it's Demar Hamlin's. Uhm, but I also think that even, uh, Tua, you know, at, at, at plus 2000.


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[Assistant] Scary league protocols have almost changed, uhm, since that. So if he comes back, he's got a great season, no concussions, Miami, like you said, wins the division, goes on and does special things, uhm, I think to a narrative wise.


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[Assistant] gets injured, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo comes in, Purdy takes his job.


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[Assistant] He doesn't look that good in the first preseason game. He's showing some, you know, signs of potential specialness. Let's say, God forbid, something happens to Purdy and then Trey Lance comes in there and he starts balling and he looks like that number three overall that San Francisco always wanted.


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[Assistant] At 35 to 1, I mean, I don't think that those odds, uhm, are that bad too. Those again, are on Caesars. I think it's a little bit different, uhm, on draft kings. Uhm, but alright guys, that is going, yep.


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[Assistant] Well, our squares keep changing here. Billy's keeping us on our toes today, but that is going to wrap us.


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[Assistant] For this show, make sure you join us all week long for more NFL preseason coverage. Remember to like, comment, and subscribe on the YouTube page for everyone listening to the audio version only. Download, follow, leave a five-star review, and tell your friends to listen and watch the pod. On behalf of myself, Will Brinson and Emery Hunt, see you later.


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[Assistant] What's up everybody? Welcome to the Pick 6 podcast. Katie Mox and Will Brinston here, taking a break from our All 32 series to talk shop with sports line analyst Alex Selznick, aka Propstars, to give you our best bets now that we are 50 days out.


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[Assistant] From NFL kickoff, uh, I for one could not be more excited, uh, Alex Elznick, uh, prop stars, first time on the show. Welcome, uh, how we doing? How's the bear doing?


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[Assistant] I've seen the movie Junior, so yeah, who knows, anything could happen. But I will say that it's been like a slow burn, right? It's like we had the draft, we, you know, we had training, not training camp, that's coming up, mini camp, those things. But then all of a sudden we had the quarterback documentary on Netflix, which I binged in like 24 hours. We've got the Jets.


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[Assistant] On Hard Knocks coming up, it's like we've just been hit in the face with football and that football is back and I'm so excited. But I will say, what did you guys think just real quick about Aaron Rodgers saying that they're not going to give NFL films as much as they normally would for this Hard Knocks season? It's kind of BS.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I would love to see Aaron Rodgers on Ayahuasca and in a dark room, uh, in between during training camp. But I will say, it's been so fun to see him. Vibes are high. Taylor Swift concert at the garden. And then all of a sudden, one little thing that he doesn't like happening, he's like, well, I'm not going to give you what you want. It's like, oh, there's the lovable prick that we all know. Um, but anyway.


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[Assistant] Discount double check. Oh, I just did a package for that on sports night. Anyways, alright, let's start this show now, guys, and let's talk about our five very best bets that we are making right now. 50 days to kick off, and I am going to go first. When I'm done with these, we will choose as a group


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[Assistant] Which one of my five vets we like the best that is going to go.


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[Assistant] Here we go. Alright, Princeton, you already know this. We talked about this on my show Moxie Bets. We also talked about it a little bit on this show. I'm taking Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen to win MVP that's at plus 190. You could take the field that's at minus 240.


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[Assistant] Mahomes is an MVP threat every single year, right? Maybe there's a little voter fatigue, but it's also Patrick Mahomes. We just saw him on quarterback looking like a badass. So I like that. And you have the Bengals.


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[Assistant] That's my preseason pick for the Super Bowl, plus a thousand. In order for that to happen, Borough likely gonna have to have an amazing year. Josh Allen.


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[Assistant] A little bit of a question mark if you look at these top three, probably the least likely of the trio. We'll see how he improves on those interceptions this year. But if you're telling me I gotta pay nearly $2.50 to bet against these guys, I'm just not gonna do it. So I'm going to take the chalk here.


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[Assistant] I also like the Ravens as a value pick to win their division at plus 275. But my favorite bet has to be that this entire division is going to win the Super Bowl. It's at plus 340. We look at the quarterbacks. You got Joe Burrow.


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[Assistant] My home script tonight, beat him three times, only quarterback to do so. You got Lamar Jackson, who just got paid. He has a new offensive coordinator. He's got new weapons. You got Watson, which.


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[Assistant] depending on how you look be good, but we do know to be great. They have the at least three really, rea John Harbaugh's already Zach Taylor Super Bowl, but got there. Mike Tomlin season as a head coach.


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[Assistant] Tough defenses, crazy weapons. Uh, I think that the AFC North could be the division to beat, uh, my next bet, offensive player of the year.


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[Assistant] Christian McCaffrey plus 1100. Now, he's the favorite, but plus 1100 doesn't necessarily feel like chalk here. And Brinson, we talked about this on our Niners All-32 pod. He's such an impact guy that it's really easy to forget that it was a mid-season trade. Like, what can we expect from a full season of Christian McCaffrey and Shanahan offense?


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[Assistant] I'm gonna say Offensive Player of the Year is what we can expect from him. He does it all. He's a Swiss Army Knife, running back, wide receiver, quarterback. He even blocks sometime, which I don't recommend that they continue putting him in that position. Somehow he was snubbed from making the Pro Bowl last year. Absolute insanity. If you look at his pace,


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[Assistant] Listen to this stat. McHaffer was on a 17 game pace where 257 carries, 1204 yards, 10 touchdowns on the ground, 85 catches, 478 yards and seven more touchdowns through the air. He's gonna have a chip on his shoulder.


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[Assistant] Give me Christian McCaffrey for Offensive Player of the Year.


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[Assistant] Next bet, I'm going Derek Henry to have the most rushing yards at plus 800. He is not


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[Assistant] Both Chubb and Taylor are at uhm, over 1200. Like, it doesn't matter who you add.


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[Assistant] Monster season. If anything, I do believe that Dihop will actually open the field up a little bit more for him. I'd like him to get the hat trick on this award. And last but certainly not least, and this one is just full chalk, but I'm taking the Chiefs.


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[Assistant] to win the AFC West bronc still not at Kansas City too many questions that qu I love Jimmy Garoppolo char gonna charge. You can't tr know what this number would not to take the chiefs to But those are my five bet


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[Assistant] Yeah. At what, at what point, at what number would that be for you not to bet that, you know? Minus 300.


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[Assistant] Yes, we're going to take a quick break here watching Pig Six when we get back. Prop stars is sharing his five best bets ahead of the season.


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[Assistant] All right, Propstars, you are up. Give us your five best bets. 50 days to kick off. I'm thankful for that so much because it just makes me feel amped to say it.


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[Assistant] Can't wait. Can't wait for the Brinson model TM. Uhm, so Tyree Kill under 1300 and a half receiving yards. It's not something that I would have originally thought of Propstar, so I do appreciate you putting this on here.


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[Assistant] Yes, the fact that he hasn't gone over this number, but maybe twice, uhm, and he doesn't average around this number and all of the question marks with Tua.


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[Assistant] Do put up a lot of question marks to what Tyree ki- now he did come off of his best year ever, as you said, and a lot of those, you know, a few of those games at least he did not have, uh, two at center, but this is a very, very inflated number, so I agree with you on that one. I actually, the Chicago Bears, I-


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[Assistant] I don't know, maybe because my dad's from Chicago, I feel a little bit like they're going to be better this year. Yes, they only had three wins. They were the worst team in the NFL last year. To get them to five wins, two more wins makes sense.


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[Assistant] I don't think they're going to get this. The real line is seven and a half. I think they're going under that. I don't think they're an eight win team. I can see them getting over five, but I'm not mad at this value at plus 290. So I'll put that as my second, but I actually really love this Hassan Reddick to have the most


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[Assistant] I mean, you look at last year and it's like you said, prop stars, he had the, he set a record for the Eagles with most sacks in a single season. He had what, three and a half sacks in the post season in two games alone.


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[Assistant] I actually bet him, you know, the Super Bowl, there is an expansive menu, um, from our friends over at Caesar Sportsbook on what you can bet. There was a multiple sack prop for Hassan Reddick and I hammered that so fast. It was at like plus 500 or something really crazy because I thought about that 2020 game when he was with the Cardinals, he had five sacks.


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[Assistant] We have to figure out, are we gonna go Hassan Reddick Sachs? Because we both really like that one. I know the Bears are your number one.


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[Assistant] Yeah. Yes. He was, I couldn't believe that there was, there was no sex. And yes, the field condition was really, really bad. Uh, cause it was, I think the line was like, you know, a one and a half or something. And I was like, Oh, all day Hassan Reddick is getting there, but you know, that's neither here nor there. Ari Brinson, the Brinson model is up.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Yeah, look, the Brinson model did not disappoint. It brought the lottery tickets that we know and love from Will Brinson. Brinson, as much as I love you, I...


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] I cannot get on board with the Matt Stafford. I don't care if it's 51. I don't care that, you know, that they never have that level of value. Now, uh, as everyone knows, I am a 49ers fan, so I'm a card carrying member of the Rams hater club.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Okay, but the team is, the team is far removed from the team that they were when they won the Super Bowl two years ago outside of Stafford, Cup, Donald.


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[Assistant] And the coach, uh, and, and anyway, so I'm not going to do that. I love Ramon de Steve, uh, Ramon de Stevenson, um, over the six and a half as well. As you said, he's had at five in the last two years and he had.


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[Assistant] You know, uh, defensive coroner as his offensive coroner.


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[Assistant] The sky is the limit with Bill O'Brien as far as I'm concerned. That is my favorite bet. I also am not mad at Pacheca, 52-1. Obviously we know I like King Henry there, but for all the reasons that you guys said, I do think that that has a lot of value. Seems like we're going to go Ramandre Stevenson over the six and a half touchdowns as the consensus.


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[Assistant] Okay, we need to take a quick break here. We have our top three from each of us for the Pick Six Podcast. Top five bets. We gotta make two more after the break. You're watching the Pick Six Podcast. How many times can I say that? We'll be right back.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Alright, welcome back to the podcast. Billy, do you want to throw up our three bets that we have selected from each of us?


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Great. Okay. So remaining to choose from, from me, we got Mahomesboro, Allen to win MVP plus 190 versus the field.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Uh, we've got the AFC Super Bowl winning division, uh, AFC North, that should say winning division, plus 340. We've got McCaffrey. And then I feel like nobody really cares too much about, uh, Derrick Henry most rushing yards.


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[Assistant] Well, I'm not gonna be Haiti. I'm gonna be, I'm gonna be Kelly on this one. And I actually love, I love Pacheco, so.


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[Assistant] I was going to say, let's recap these for the people listening that don't visually see this pick six graphic. We are taking Chiefs to win the AFC West at minus 165 Hassan Reddick to record the most sacks at plus 1800 plus


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Oh god, don't even get me started on saying that. I will really try to do this and incorporate Pixix somehow in there.


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[Assistant] Or we wrap the show up. Or we wrap the show up. Alright everyone, uh, Propstars, thank you so much for joining us today. We hope to have you on many more times in the season. You are a real treat, Brinson. Always a treat to talk with you. Make sure you join us all year for the remainder.


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[Assistant] All 32 series, uh, summer mini series where we sit down with insiders from each team and give you the need to know information ahead of the season. Remember to like, comment, subscribe on the YouTube page for everyone listening to the audio version only download, follow, leave a five star review and tell your friends to listen and watch the pod. We'll see you next time.


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[Assistant] With every insider to give you the need to know information on each NFL team. And today we are talking Philadelphia Eagles with NFL writer for cbsports.com and writer for 24 seven sports covering the eagle Jeff Kerr. Jeff, thanks for joining us today. And is that the link behind you?


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[Assistant] Oh please, I said a swear word once on a radio show and I actually had to end the radio show like immediately and kick me off so it's, it happens.


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[Assistant] This year that over under 11 and a half of the rushing touchdowns with the under actually juiced, no Shane Steichen around. Do you foresee some regression in terms of rushing touchdowns from Jalen Hertz? And second part of that question, I'm sure you saw Pete Prisco has him at 31. So I want to know how you feel about that.


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[Assistant] Austin Scott is the Giants killer, right? I mean, I think they're going to need him, uh, in division because he gets all of those touchdowns. But when you look at some of these, uh, seasoned rushing yards, you got Deandre Swift.


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[Assistant] His over under 500 and a half yards for the season. Rashad Penny higher than that, 625 and a half. And maybe that's because you said that Swift is more of the pass catching running back there. But who do you think is going to be the top dog? And when you look at these season totals,


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[Assistant] Alright Jeff, how do we think that the Eagles are going to do this year? Their win total set to 11 and a half. That underjuiced to minus 130. Looking at total wins in division, that line four and a half with the underjuiced to 220. The NFC East, one of the toughest divisions in the league right now.


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[Assistant] Hey, we won't know. We won't know. We'll see you week 13. We'll see you work week 13. It'll be a good game. I'll say that. I hope so. Better than the last one.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Hey everybody, welcome back to the pick six podcast and our all 32 series. This is the series where we catch up with insiders to give you the need to know information on