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[Assistant] Since coming off of just that unbelievable tragedy where he was shot multiple times. He was able to come back last week and now the reports are earlier today that he is going to be the starter. He's going to be the guy in this backfield. So if all of a sudden he's the dude that we saw in the preseason, that's a heck of a weapon to put in the backfield and Antonio Gibson played well.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we're not great at math. But, uh, the only thing that I'm concerned about with


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[Assistant] Just the commanders in general. I'll give you one thing on the commanders. The number one thing I'm concerned about them is their third down percentage. It is god awful after that win in week one against the Jaguars. Since then, 33% conversion rate on third down. I think they went one for 11 last week on that down. It was just, they just have not been able to


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[Assistant] Move the chains to keep the, keep the drives alive and it's resulted in a super low scoring output. 15.5 points per game over the last four weeks over this losing skid.


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[Assistant] If they don't blow up and they stay here, that's where the under comes into play because I don't think that either one of these teams


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[Assistant] Under normal circumstances, it'd probably be like 25 to 1. And you'd feel like that'd be a good one to...


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[Assistant] Target there, but 18-1, yeaah, I mean, if they want to go for that again, but I almost wonder too, like, if you're an opposing defense, I mean, you're getting Jalen Johnson back here too, for Chicago, by the way, like,


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[Assistant] If this dude just went off last week, you're gonna be like, hey guys, let's just make sure we don't lose to this dude again.


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[Assistant] No, that's the thing too. He has to rip one and be wide open deep.


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[Assistant] I think Cole Comet's an interesting one, plus 950. He's been targeted, you know, with this uptick in volume.


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[Assistant] With the Bears over the last couple of games. Kemet's been a guy.


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[Assistant] That I think a lot of people looked at over the summer, like, hey, this could be a fantasy kind of guy to keep your eye on. Hasn't been impressive for the first couple of weeks, but he did catch all four of his targets last week, 45 yards. Again, nothing crazy, but at the same time, those targets are increasing his playing time is increasing. So somebody that is a big body for Justin Fields.


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[Assistant] I told her it was all good. What did she say? She just goes, you're an idiot and then walks away.


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[Assistant] Yup, no, I got one, uh, ready. It's, I had Brian Robinson over 11 and a half rushing attempts. I think that's gone up.


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[Assistant] I'm trying to see if I can get up right here. Total rushing attempts. Yes, that's gone up one. So it's now, uh, 12 and a half. I still like the over on this one. He had nine rushing attempts last week and this is even before the report that he's going to see an uptick. He's going to start tonight or is expected to start tonight.


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[Assistant] And so we're coming off a game, obviously, he made his debut, all, all that stuff, and he only played 29%.


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[Assistant] Of the offensive snaps last week, and he had nine carries. If we're talking about somebody that's going to now be a featured piece to this backfield, he's seeing well over this number. And Antonio Gibson, as much as we just said, Ron Rivera didn't really like using him from weeks one to four when Robinson was out, 13.3 attempts per game.


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[Assistant] So you know, even if we just get the Antonio Gibson workload for Brian Robinson, he's clearing this.


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[Assistant] He's, again, I just think that this offense is starting to


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[Assistant] Pass a little bit more, I'm not saying to turn it into the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs or anything like that.


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[Assistant] But we are seeing Justin Fields at least throwing 20 times a game over the last couple of weeks. And we've seen the uptick in production for Cole Comet when we went with, with Fields kind of improving or at least getting more volume as a passer. He's gone over this number two times over the last three weeks.


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[Assistant] He's a guy that I think that they look out outside obviously of, uh, Darnell Mooney. He's enough, he's probably the number two receiving option for them in this offense. And so I just feel like that's a low enough number for a number two receiver, pass catcher in this offense that I'll take it.


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[Assistant] Right. And I mean, he caught that one last week too. That was an amazing catch.


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[Assistant] Comet and Robinson are my big ones. I think that Wens throws an interception in this game. I just, you know, if you want to throw that. I don't think that the num- I don't think the number is that.


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[Assistant] And he's gonna be pressing a little bit, like to a degree at least. Sure. If Chicago's getting a lead here and they're somehow applying pressure, obviously, you know.


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[Assistant] The, the offensive line for the Washington commanders isn't particularly great, and Wentz holds the ball a little bit too long in my opinion. Ah, I mean there's a- That's, you know, that's money in the bank.


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[Assistant] Just to kind of go a little bit more unique, I, I do think that the core, obviously the quarterbacks and I think the defenses will be captained a lot. I like, I, I keep, I feel like I'm hyping them up too much. I think Cole Comet's an interesting captain. I don't feel like there's going to be a lot of high ownership. You can pretty much have the guys in there that you want. He's only 7,800 as a captain.


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[Assistant] You can go with a lineup of what I like. And again, this is more, I guess, if you like the Bears to win, it would be Komet, Chicago Defense, Justin Fields, Montgomery, Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin.


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[Assistant] I'm doing okay, probably not as good as Christian McCaffrey. Do you think he's excited Breach to get out of Carolina and that steaming pile of football doodoo?


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[Assistant] I'll start. The Panthers won the trade. Uhm, and Breach here, I'll just give you some, some things I scribbled down when Brent's and I were in HQ.


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[Assistant] So they have Jeff Wilson, who's averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Uh, they drafted Terry Davis Price in the third round this year. They drafted Trey Serman in the third round last year. He's no longer with the team. They drafted Elijah Mitchell in the sixth round. Uh, he's injured, but he'll come back and he's, he was really good before he got hurt. They have Tevin Coleman on the roster.


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[Assistant] Okay, thank you. And, and Steven O at Sportsline, who runs all the simulations and is smarter than all three of us put together, said the win total for the 49ers because they don't have real knees and running back goes from 9.5 to 9.7.


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[Assistant] I think the Carolina Panthers, as Brenton noted, needs all sorts of help, draft and otherwise. So this is a huge gift for them. Christian McAfee wasn't going to help them win football games this year because they're


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[Assistant] They're straight up terrible. So I, I'm not sure. I understand. Kyle Shanahan wants to win the division. He thinks this is his opening. I get that. I'm not sure if Christian McCaver, he struggled to stay healthy is worth the price of poker in this case.


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[Assistant] I was just looking at the recent draft picks who went later than the second round.


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[Assistant] Quick, Ktie12 asked us in the comments, uh, I mean, NFC sucks this year, he says. Why not?


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[Assistant] Do whatever one can to increase your odds. I get it. The issue is, what if you spin out and lose in the first round of the playoffs? Is that considered a win? Because now, and Breach, here are the picks that the 49ers now have in the upcoming draft. They don't have the first because that was Trey Lance. They have three. They have one seventh round.


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[Assistant] They have three thirds. They had three thirds. They just traded one of them. Now they have two competitive story thirds left. They have a fourth, a fifth, and a seventh. So if you lose in the first round of playoffs or don't make the playoffs, the trade obviously, I don't think it's worth it because now you're, you're,


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[Assistant] Or you, you know, you're just let me be clear. You're okay with giving up all this compensation just to win two playoff games and not get a Superbowl.


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[Assistant] Can I ask you a couple questions? Is that the difference? Is that what this offense is missing? Running back, sketching passes?


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[Assistant] Yeah, but here, let's do the, let's think this thing out a little further. So let's say they didn't trade for Christian McCaffrey and they win 10 games this year and they lose in the first round of the playoffs. Now they have these draft picks and they win, they'll win on average 10 games the next three years.


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[Assistant] Let's say they win 12 games this year with Christian McCaffrey losing the first round of playoffs. Now they're going to be on pace to win 8.5 for 9 games the next 3 years. So, looking at it in that sense, costing yourself a game, a game and a half per year on the back end, is that worth it? If the results are the same in year 1?


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[Assistant] On the follow up to Breach saying that the offense will open up with McCaffrey catching balls and I don't disagree with that. Do you know how many games Christian McCaffrey played in 2021 Breach in?


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[Assistant] Uhm, but yeaah, my point is that, that, I mean, you know, he can't stay healthy. So that's also, should be part of the math, but...


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[Assistant] It's like buying a Ferrari that you know has had work on it, but you're like, you know what? I got a Ferrari. And if I can drive it long enough to find a girlfriend and then it breaks down, who cares? And the girlfriend is a super bowl. I just did a breach analogy.


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[Assistant] Yeah, but just, just to push back, did the Rams, do you think the Rams had any draft capital the next five years to give up? Or are they going to trade players?


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[Assistant] Uhm, yeaah, I mean the medical, I would imagine that there'll be some medical component to the trade anyway. So, whatever you know or don't know, you're gonna figure it out right quick when he shows up, right?


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[Assistant] Okay, we'll see. I think it's too much, but I mean, if he's good, then it works out. Also, I think there's a history, a recent history of the 49ers under Shane Hand and Lynch doing some


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[Assistant] Unconventional things with rap picks. With Trey Lance. And unfortunately, he's injured too. So, you know, that's hanging over. And I think you mentioned on HQ.


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[Assistant] Yeah, no, that's right. I don't think that's not even a crazy thing to say.


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[Assistant] And you mentioned on HQ, now you have, uh, sort of the...


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[Assistant] The ability to swap out McCaffrey for Debo, not on the field, but in terms of the actual positions they're playing.


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[Assistant] And uhm, I was thinking, Breech, if you get 11 depot savings on your team, you're probably the best team in the NFL, and maybe that's the long-term plan of the 49ers.


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[Assistant] But if you keep him for more than one year, he ain't gonna play for the veteran minimum. It's gonna be the veteran maximum.


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[Assistant] I might actually think it's worse, but only because the office in line sucks so bad.


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[Assistant] Compensate for a terrible offensive line as a running back. He would mitigate.


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[Assistant] I think you wouldn't be able to overcome the terrible offensive line.


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[Assistant] What's today? Today's, it was Friday, Thursday, Friday. No, I don't think so. Robbie Anderson was dressed. Did he play on Thursday night?


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[Assistant] Yeaah, he's, I'm sure he's, you know, he went to Stanford, so I'm sure he's no dummy. I just, uhm, that's a quick turnaround.


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[Assistant] What's up everybody? Welcome to the pick six podcast, CBS sports daily and a full podcast. I'm over into every host. It is Wednesday, October 5th. If you're listening to the podcast and audio form Tuesday, October 4th, if you're watching with us live on YouTube and it's our betting trends.


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[Assistant] The Zee Show. Join me to look at some better trends. John Breach and Tyler Sheldon aka Sully. What's up fellas?


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[Assistant] It's like, if you go to like a, like a wing place and it's like wings with an S, what are you doing?


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[Assistant] I don't want your wings. I want to see at the end. I'm going to eat all your wings or like if you go to some, some place that's the claims to be extreme and use the E before the front of the word, it's not that extreme. Like you're not, you're not really extreme unless you're dropping that E and going full like extreme smash the like button if you're watching or if you're extreme.


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[Assistant] We're being sarcastic here, I think. I mean, I at least like, if you had the Z at the end, then I'm a little skeptical.


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[Assistant] That's the perfunctory small talk.


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[Assistant] How many ways do you think you can eat in like a 15 minute span?


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[Assistant] Why, why'd you say you guys? What are you accusing me of? I just think that we're just extremely.


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[Assistant] Uhm, anyway, let's get into uhm, you know what, uh, you know who has wings? Falcons. Falcons have wings.


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[Assistant] There you go. What a segue. By the way, we didn't win the podcast award. Do we mention that last night? Uh, Mourning Combat won it. Oh. So good for them.


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[Assistant] Year of my life explaining to people that I'm an award winning podcast host.


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[Assistant] Hey, Falcons and the Falcons versus the Buccaneers. Falcons. So check that. Um, is it Falcons at Buccaneers or Buccaneers at Falcons? It has to be


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[Assistant] Both are two and two. Time for first place in the division. It's actually moving up to eight and a half. The overrunners 48.


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[Assistant] I don't think, we didn't talk about this game on our look at, did we breach? No we didn't because we talked about the Chiefs on Monday night but not the Falcons.


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[Assistant] I, this is an interesting one because the bucks are, have.


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[Assistant] They haven't been great this year. The last time people saw them, they didn't look good.


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[Assistant] You know, on offense, I mean, okay, on offense, not very good on defense, obviously.


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[Assistant] Atlanta now missing Cordera Patterson for the, I believe, the season. He's on IR.


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[Assistant] Which is to be expected. Like this is, you know, you could kind of like the injuries are going to pile up now. That's just kind of how it works. You know, you.


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[Assistant] Four, five, six, seven weeks of this NFL season, we'll wear on people.


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[Assistant] What kind of trends you got, you seen here, Sully, on, uh, on Tampa Bay and Atlanta? Obviously the line has moved half a point.


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[Assistant] Two touchdown passes and zero interceptions in this game. Do you know that he would have 28 touchdown passes and three interceptions in his career?


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[Assistant] Let's dive into the Tom Brady allegedly getting divorcing and make it like a big part of this podcast. But I do think it's like, I mean, I think it's important for the Buccaneer season.


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[Assistant] If the Buccaneers were two and four and Tom Brady felt like he was going to lose his marriage, would he, would he walk away from football? I mean, obviously, clearly it doesn't look like that. I mean,


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[Assistant] All the stuff that's been leading up to this. And again, it's just a report that they've hired divorce lawyers, but like the fact that, I mean, we heard, you know, Tom Brady retired and then came back and then, you know,


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[Assistant] Was away for like the 11 days, it was weird. And then Gisele puts out that Elle interview that we talked about where she, you know, she says, it's my time now.


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[Assistant] And then Tom Brady's been acting like sort of solid and not thrilled about stuff. I mean, it all kind of checks out, I guess.


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[Assistant] Like I don't think you set this line high enough. Also the Falcons love to run the football. That's what Arthur Smith loves to do. They don't pass a ton. You can't run against the Buccaneers even with the Keemhecks out. So.


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[Assistant] I think it's a bad spot for Atlanta, where sort of, not that it all comes crashing down, it's just in Tampa.


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[Assistant] Brady pissed off Tom Brady, who's, who's dominated this team.


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[Assistant] I think, you know, we, we talk on Sunday night about like, get your bets in early. I think this line could move up to like 10.


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[Assistant] For sure. All right, moving on to the next game, man. Really crazy pot twist. What a, I mean, what a six months for Tom Brady. Yeah, weird year, weird year for him. I mean, the Miami stuff. Crazy. Dolphins minus three and a half verse the.


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[Assistant] Jets, a surprisingly low line, although, excuse me, at the Jets. Dolphin to minus three and a half at the Jets.


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[Assistant] So that line actually makes sense. Although Tua talking about Loa has been ruled out. Thanks Dolphins for getting ahead of that one. Uh, really impressive work by you.


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[Assistant] Yes, just doing the chat does point out the Chiefs ran against Tampa. The Chiefs did a good job running credit to their offensive line, but you usually don't run against Tampa.


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[Assistant] Dolphins minus three and a half at the Jets. Sully, any trends to look at here?


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[Assistant] Minus three minus one twenty. So it was minus three and a half now down to minus three.


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[Assistant] I mean, basically they're saying that two is worth two and a half points more than


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[Assistant] Part of that too is because Teddy, um,


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[Assistant] The team with the backup quarterback does unusually well against the spread. It's like 65% and it's, it's mainly because of the psychological discounts. Like, Oh, they're playing a backup.


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[Assistant] The line is set because they're playing a backup quarterback and it ends up actually the team with the backup quarterback.


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[Assistant] Like for instance, Miami now just like Miami minus five and a half with two. I've been taking the jets for sure. Miami minus three with Teddy.


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[Assistant] I'm a little more intrigued with the Dolphins there. Um, you know, you're going to have to go up to New York. Doesn't look like the weather's going to be too bad. Um, in the, in the Meadowlands.


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[Assistant] 65 degrees or something like that on Sunday. So no rain, not a ton of wind. Teddy Bridgewater can go up there and sling the ball around.


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[Assistant] That's, I think it's the combination of two and Zach Wilson that moved the line. Zach Wilson is clearly an upgrade, clearly an upgrade of Joe Flacker, right?


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[Assistant] I mean, even if he didn't play well the first three quarters, he's- Yeah, I'd hope so.


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[Assistant] No, I'm saying like, I mean, don't we think after one week that he's an upgrade? I mean, Joe fucker, Joe fucker had like one good, two good drives against Cleveland basically to pull out that win.


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[Assistant] 90 good seconds. That, that was blackout. Right, right, right. Probably joking there somewhere, but I'm not going to make it.


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[Assistant] And you made it anyway. Uhm, yes, I think I would lean...


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[Assistant] I don't know, I don't know which way I lean on this one. I think it's a tough game to pick. I would probably want to take the points of the Jets, but.


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[Assistant] Teddy is, Teddy did look, I thought Teddy looked pretty sharp throwing the ball around.


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[Assistant] Hosting, uh, by the way, way to go. Way to go, my Tomlin in Pittsburgh. You, uh, broke. Can you pick it in for basically what amounts to a half?


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[Assistant] And then you said, all right, enjoy Buffalo against this very good bills defense. As we pointed out on Sunday, breach this line, move from, um, 13 to 14 very quickly. And it should continue. I would guess it's not going to come down. I mean, I lean towards the bills here just because I think that they can really like lean on.


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[Assistant] Alright, they can really squee, just make it make life tough for, for.


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[Assistant] A rookie in Kenny Pickett, but I'm curious what the trends are here, Sully.


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[Assistant] I feel like that's the first time I've ever heard throwing him to the lions.


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[Assistant] Uh, over under 16 and a half points. Team Turtle for the Steelers. I would lean under.


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[Assistant] I mean, you think, I mean, do we think that the flying, the flying Kenny, Kenny P, do we think Kenny Pickett is going to lead them to three scores?


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[Assistant] Last year in the opener. Oh yeah. That's right. Week one. Yeah. They beat him there last year in week one.


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[Assistant] It was a shocking, like, shocking, shocking loss. The bills are, the bills are not afraid to have a bad, a weird bad loss.


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[Assistant] This one doesn't feel like that spot though, even though they're coming off a huge win against the back to back road games. They go one on one. They probably feel like they should be a four and oh and right. Yeah. And then now they're going to host the Steelers in a game where, you know, I mean, look, you have to,


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[Assistant] The, the dolphins are, are there. The dolphins are lingering the division. You can't, you can't, you know, take your foot off the gas. So, uh, I mean, I think I, I leaned towards the bills here, but you're laying 14. Nobody likes to do that. That's a, that's a lot of points to lay. All right.


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[Assistant] And real quick, the bills have played.


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[Assistant] I mean, would you rather be eaten by a lion or a wolf? Oh, I just feel like it's a lot easier to find wolves to throw somebody to. I think that's why it's more dangerous.


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[Assistant] What are we talking about? How big a lion is? You were thrown to the wolves, you were thrown to a pack of wolves, like you're dead, either way, like you're not surviving a pack of either of them.


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[Assistant] Got a bird battle. Foreigner Eagles are headed to the Cardinals.


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[Assistant] And the Eagles, I believe are minus five. Has this moved? Didn't we say it was going to move? Is it five and a half or four and a half on Sunday breach? I believe it was four and a half.


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[Assistant] Yeah. So it's moved to five. I thought it would get to five. I thought it was like four and a half moved to five and a half. Maybe it's come back down a little bit. It was definitely four and a half.


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[Assistant] Okay, but I, okay, I thought it had moved to five and a half when we were talking about it. Maybe I'm wrong. Uh, either way, this is moving the direction we thought.


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[Assistant] With Philly getting, you know, now minus five over under 49 and a half. I like the kind of like the over this game. I think it could be a shootout. Um, I think it's a pretty good game to target for DFS purposes. And I like the Eagles because I don't believe in the Cardinals, although everybody's in on the Eagles. Everybody's out of the Cardinals home game.


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[Assistant] It does, it is a little stinky to back the Eagles here, but they've been very good as far as road favorites so far this year.


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[Assistant] When you have a lead like that, you know, if you have a lead in bad weather against the Jaguars at home.


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[Assistant] You're gonna, you're gonna pound the football in the second half.


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[Assistant] Force them to make be perfect on all the drives. So I think that's that feels like like a lot of what they're doing. Although you know the Detroit storm backing into the back door. It does feel a little, you know, there's some, I would say some concern about


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[Assistant] Like, you know, in an elite matchup, is Nick Seriotti going to keep his foot on the gas? Because he needs to.


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[Assistant] That doesn't seem to be susceptible to when you're laying five.


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[Assistant] You know, that's, you know, the card you're down, you're up 12 with three minutes to go in the Cardinal score, meaningless touchdown. All of a sudden, you have go for two and kind of the full, you know, who knows what they would do, but you're, you're, you're down, you're up 11, whatever it is. You know, there's a, there's a possibility of getting back towards you're just worth considering. All right. One more game and then we will, um, take a break. Bingles at the Ravens Ravens minus three.


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[Assistant] Ravens are actually, uh, minus one 15 minus three. We, we talked about this on Sunday. I believe there were the pingles were plus three plus minus one 20. So the, the line hasn't moved.


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[Assistant] No huge surprise. It's an AMC North matchup between two, two good teams, uh, both two and two, both tied for first along with the Browns.


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[Assistant] And you don't want to give more than three and a half into a lot of times in these matchups, but to see the juice shift like that indicates that maybe a little more money on, um,


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[Assistant] The, uh, the, the, the Ravens coming in. Oh, the breach has already said he is backing the Bengals to win outright.


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[Assistant] Kind of a bummer that uhm, this game is on Sunday Night Football, so I can't, we can't use it in D. It's great for like watching purposes, but for D, like I, this is a game I would love to have targeted DFS. Like I feel like this could be an absolute shootout between these two teams.


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[Assistant] Lamar and the Ravens just, you know, looking fairly unstoppable at offense for the most part. And then, you know, of course the Bengals have tons of talent and the, like the, the Ravens don't have a great pass rush to that, you know, that sort of, you know, you don't have to worry about the Bengals, you know, biggest, you know, uh, Achilles heel in their offensive line. And Cincinnati should be able to throw it deep against this Raven secondary. So fun game coming.


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[Assistant] Sort of lean towards the idea of taking the field goal. I definitely lean towards the idea of this goes to three and a half, you're taking the three and a half of the Bengals.


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[Assistant] Cause there's an ability to get in the back door or if you have the lead and clearly Baltimore not afraid to cough up a lead this season.


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[Assistant] And they just lost a bad one that they shouldn't have lost to the bills.


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[Assistant] So this could be a bounce back spot plus a little bit of revenge for last year's butt kicking from.


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[Assistant] The bingles. All right, let's take a break. We'll come back. We'll touch quickly on the awards market next.


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[Assistant] So, there are some, uh, awards markets to look at around Caesars, MVP specifically is an interesting one. It always is. It's too early to decide who would be the most valuable player in the national football league, but.


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[Assistant] There's some obvious candidates. Josh Allen, three to one. Patrick Mahomes, five to one. Jalen Hurts, five and a half. Lamar Jackson, five and a half. Justin Herbert, 16 and Joe Burrow, 20 to one. Now the favorites, any value that you guys see in the MVP market out there.


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[Assistant] We already talked about him once in this podcast. Tom Brady's 40 to 1.


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[Assistant] I mean, it's four weeks into the season. The Buccaneers are two and two. The offense hasn't looked good.


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[Assistant] But his offensive line is completely redoing the offensive line, so they're adjusting to all that. Been missing receivers.


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[Assistant] It is not, it's not crazy to suggest that this personal life stuff now boiling over just launches Brady into a on field destructive spree where he just rips apart defenses and goes bananas. The idea that the MVP race is down to four guys.


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[Assistant] Four weeks in the season is just silly. We see this every year. So Brady at 40 to 1 to me is a pretty good look. Uhm, Trevor Lawrence, you know, Trevor Lawrence, I had him at 125 to 1 before the season, 35 to 1. I guess I hate it, but.


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[Assistant] As Sony has pointed out, there are better ways to attack the Jaguars potentially, including the coach of the year award.


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[Assistant] Although, at this point, Doug Peterson, Doug Peterson 7-1, probably better bet than Trevor Lawrence 35-1 for a VP.


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[Assistant] Conversely, and I cannot believe I'm saying this. I really, this is, goes against the, my entire ethos.


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[Assistant] But I think that Mike McCarthy at 30 to one is a decent value for coach of the year. He's there three in one. They're just a game back of the Eagles. They haven't, they've three with it without, with, with Cooper rush. If they were to win the NFC East after missing Dak Prescott for a month plus and the Eagles being very good, Mike McCarthy is going to get some love in this award.


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[Assistant] That might, that might stroke Jacksonville winning the division, honestly.


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[Assistant] I guess you could throw Kingsbury there at 81, but nobody wants to vote for Cliff Kingsbury.


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[Assistant] I think you do, I think Kyle Shanahan 50 to 1 and Pete Carroll 100 to 1 is a very nice combo to have. Cause you lose Trey Lance, you lose Russell Wilson.


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[Assistant] You know, you win that division, you make, you know, you, you, it's just wouldn't be that crazy for, for voters to say, wow.


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[Assistant] They handled all that adversity. The same thing with the Mike McCarthy stuff. Like those three, I think are really good bets. McCarthy.


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[Assistant] I don't even mind Peterson at 7 to 1 either. I mean, obviously, you know, you wanted to pet him earlier in the year when we told you to, but it's not.


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[Assistant] Point being is that those four I think are pretty good looks, uh, right now at the end of the year. Um, defensive player of the year. Let's see, where is it?


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[Assistant] TJ Watt 40 to 1. Probably too much time missed at this point.


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[Assistant] Yeah. I don't see maybe Devin white at 50 to one is something I would look at.


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[Assistant] It's not a lot of love, not a lot to love on here. Bradley Chubb for two to one is a possibility, I guess. It's Rowan Smith playing well enough.


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[Assistant] I think, I feel like we talked about that you have to have a good, your team has to be good to win though, that's a problem.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I don't know. This is too wide open right now, I think.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I like it. Alright, let's move on to uhm, we'll do one more. Comeback player of the year.


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[Assistant] Where are you? Where are you? It's not my fault. The layout is very difficult. There it is. All right. Saquon Barkley plus 160. And it's gonna be hard to beat Saquon Barkley. Brian Robinson Jr. 4-1.


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[Assistant] He's coming back from getting, from getting shot this year. I mean, I don't think that's where the voters will go with the, with their selections unless he's just a monster. You know what I mean?


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[Assistant] It's a cool story, I mean, it's a very cool story.


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[Assistant] But it's not, it's not really how those voters think about this. They think about it in terms of like Saquon hurt, not playing well.


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[Assistant] Comes out, looks awesome. Giants are, Giants are decent. Giants are in the mix.


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[Assistant] I wouldn't take it four to one. I don't think it's that crazy for him to win, but like if he was like 15 or 20 to one, we'd definitely be interested. Dobbins, I think I agree is probably the, the, the one I really like in this spot right now. Barclay at plus money. I mean,


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[Assistant] You're basically banging on Barclay to play the entire season of the Giants to beat.


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[Assistant] In the hunt. So I like, I'm kind of intrigued at plus 160, but uhm, it's a little short.


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[Assistant] Anyway, any of these awards, four weeks in at plus 160, anything under two to one on any of these awards.


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[Assistant] Four weeks into the season, like we're, we're, we're not even a quarter of the way home.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I would agree with that. All right. Good stuff. A lot of games covered, a lot of awards covered, kept it reasonably tight. Um, that's it. Great stuff as always guys.


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[Assistant] We'll be back, uh, tomorrow. Brady Quinn for Law Show, of course.


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[Assistant] For, uh, for Sully, for Breach. I'm Brinson. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. We will talk to you guys later.


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[Assistant] What's up everybody? Welcome to the basics podcast, CBS sports daily. If a podcast, I'm over it and I'm your host. It is Monday, October 10th.


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[Assistant] Rear, rear, rear. We got an emergency podcast joining me to break down the Matt rule firing Ryan Wilson.


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[Assistant] We sort of predicted we might be in this position last night. I thought it might, I thought they might wait, uh, for another two weeks, maybe to see what happened against the Rams and the Buccaneers. Why would you wait?


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[Assistant] As I told Breach, like uhm, sometimes these owners like to try and get a winnable game after they fire somebody to, to help justify, uh, what they.


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[Assistant] Doesn't care, is impatient, wants to fire people, and the Panthers have fired.


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[Assistant] That rule as of Monday afternoon, Monday morning, I suppose.


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[Assistant] In an interview once he said, I'm basically, um, I'm a blue collar, regular dude who just happens to be a billionaire.


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[Assistant] Anybody wants to get fired, particularly head coaches. I do think that he's owed $40 million if he never works another day in his life.


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[Assistant] Well, part of the reason too why they wanted to move on from that rule earlier is that they, in theory is that they hope that he can find a head coaching job with the college team.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, yeah, you never to work again. I mean, but the problem is most coaches are going to try and like, you're like, you, you don't want to see you want to grab the momentum because there's not a whole lot of momentum right now for that rule. But with that rule, you can at least say, okay,


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[Assistant] Well, yeah, but I see like you could say, okay, maybe it didn't work with Carolina, but that was a tough situation and it's an NFL thing versus college.


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[Assistant] It's very, very Pete of you, Pete. Uhm, I saw- I think, I think he, I think he, I think he could be popular. The Nebraska thing makes all the sense in the world.


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[Assistant] Uh, so he is less than three years into a seven year, $62 million contract. Wow. Fired 11 and 27 at one for this year, one at 27 when allowing 17 or more points, including 25 losses in a row with that stat. Uh, ESPN reported that every other team has multiple such wins in that span. Yikes.


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[Assistant] Alright, well that's something else to keep an eye on.


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[Assistant] Right, but my point is more that, I mean, McCaffrey is definitely a trade candidate, but he has $27 million and he said, Oh, actually his salary cap hits are not bad at all. He's a trade candidate. That would be a weird one.


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[Assistant] Uh, yeah, Robbie Anderson more likely to be with the DJ Moore, Will McClain says in the chat. That's correct. I mean, DJ Moore's contract just makes it.


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[Assistant] Very difficult to move him. I thought McCaffrey's contract was more problematic than it actually is. He, you know, you could, if you're willing to deal with, you know.


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[Assistant] Like, you know, trading for a running back. I don't know what you're going to give up for him, but you could, you could in theory trade for him.


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[Assistant] The, uh, yeaah, I don't think that like, like Brian Burns.


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[Assistant] If they, if they decide, I mean, it depends on what they're trying to do or like, are they trying to rebuild or like, you know, what's the, um.


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[Assistant] What's the, what's the, you know, what's the deal with what the


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[Assistant] Like what, what is the Panthers plan in a post Matt rule world? Obviously it's to hire somebody who can help you win, but you know, you can't just like, you know.


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[Assistant] It's, it's, it's complicated because I think that they want to win now. David Timberlake wants to win now. It's very clear you can't win now.


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[Assistant] And if you trade, you know, if you trade Brian Burns, if you trade Robbie Anderson, you make it less likely you'll win now or win next year, but you're also getting yourself draft picks to stockpile. And so I think, I think it's a fine line to walk here for Carolina.


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[Assistant] He didn't like each other. He didn't want to go to Carolina. Carolina didn't want him. Yeah.


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[Assistant] I mean, Darnold, like, the, the, the Panthers have attempted to trade for quarterbacks in each of the last two off-seasons. Or they had Cam one year, uhm, then they had, they had Teddy Bridgewater.


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[Assistant] They released him one year after signing up to a $63 million contract. Then they traded, uh, uh, 2018, they traded, uh,


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[Assistant] Second round pick or two second round picks for Sam Darnold when he was the last guy remaining on the quarterback carousel.


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[Assistant] I mean, but like those have been the last two guys available and the Panthers have been the last team standing. It's like almost like a forced marriage where with, with, you know, a bad franchise and a bad back.


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[Assistant] Steve Wilkes is the, uh, yeah, well, Steve Wilkes is the interim head coach.


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[Assistant] Of course Steve Wilkes famously fired after one year in Arizona, predecessor for Cliff Kingsbury. He was, uh, you know, he had had Josh Rosen. It was a really, really bad football team, really, really bad year. Josh Rosen just got cut today by the Browns, by the way. Of course, naturally.


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[Assistant] I know, I think I heard Ian Rappelworth say that Steve Wilkes will get quote unquote very serious consideration for the head coaching job in Carolina.


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[Assistant] John Fox, it would be the Mystics. Rob Rivera. Yeah. Rob Rivera, then John. Well, Rob Rivera, one, John Fox, two, George Sheever, three.


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[Assistant] Went to the playoffs. He's awful. Uhm, Tom Capers, then George Chief. That rule is actually the, uh, the, uh,


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[Assistant] Fifth most winning coach in Panthers.


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[Assistant] I mean, so, so, Ron Rivera was 76, 63 and 1. He's the most, he's the winningest character. Oh, that's amazing. Okay, that's my bad for... John Fox, 73 and 71.


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[Assistant] Second most winning coach, Dom Capers, 30 and 34, third most winning coach, George Seifer, 16 and 32, number four and then number five, 10 and 23, 11, 10 and 23? Matt rule.


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[Assistant] Got it. I didn't know how many. He's also the fifth most winning coach.


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[Assistant] Shane stitching, it's a name that could be, uh, could get, uh, love there. The, the Eagles offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, former Panthers quarterback.


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[Assistant] Yeah, former was that was in the Panthers as a quarterbacks coach and then left to go to Buffalo with, uh, with Sean McDermott. If they have a big year, it's not crazy.


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[Assistant] Uh, one, yeah, I think he'd totally do that. Be like, Sean Payton, you're in charge. Like tell me, do you, do you want Federer here? You want to fire him? You want your own GM? You know, Sean Payton is going to have way more say in personnel than.


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[Assistant] I'll look, uhm, regardless, the states are fairly, oh 2024, yeaah, there we go, the states are fairly unlikely to trade him within the division.


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[Assistant] There's somebody who coach somewhere, but I mean, like if you're Sean Payton.


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[Assistant] You're, you're like, you're gonna have to give up the picks. You're gonna have to like, you're gonna have to give up so many picks to get you in the division that it's going to hamstring your ability to build a roster.


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[Assistant] I think it's more to first round pick.


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[Assistant] I just don't think the Saints are going to be willing to trade him within the division. Yeah, that's fair. Um, Jamaica Ryan's is, would be a, I mean, he's the guy who's like, whose defense basically got Matt Rowe fired.


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[Assistant] You know, like David Thomas watching this guy's defense and seeing how good the 49ers are and watching this guy on the sidelines and thinking, man, this dynamic, you know, young head coach.


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[Assistant] Could you do, uh, you could look at Shane Waldron given how well Gina Smith is playing.


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[Assistant] Alright, cool. Good stuff. Anything else on Matt Ruhl being fired?


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[Assistant] No. Damn it, he should have been minus $5,000 at the beginning of the year to be first coach fired.


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[Assistant] Oh, sorry. I was reading up text. All right. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening for Wilson, for Sully. I'm Brinson. We'll see you guys later, man. Real fire. Mercy podcast. Bye.


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[Assistant] What's up everybody? Welcome to the Pixix Podcast. CBS Sports Daily NFL Podcast. I'm Will Brinson. I'm your host. It is Sunday, October 16th at halftime Sunday football where we're going to look at early lines for week seven in the NFL season. If you are listening to the podcast more than likely Monday, October 17th, although I guess it could go up on Sunday night. Who knows?


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[Assistant] Anyway, of course we will have our recap stream with myself, John Breach and Ryan Wilson. But.


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[Assistant] To break down these early lines, to look at what might move, lines that could move.


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[Assistant] And early best bets. Joining me as always, John Breach. What's up? Shining me bad.


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[Assistant] Uh, Saturday was a rough afternoon, but it is what it is. You're used to pain and suffering and torture.


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[Assistant] Uhm, eagles are smoking, uh, the cowboys at halftime by the way. We'll see if that holds up, but let's dive into games for next week. Cause that's what we do here on.


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[Assistant] The early, uh, uh, sure. That's a little, sure. Early odds. Is that the name of early edge? I don't know. I don't listen to it. Uhm, just kidding. So Ravens.


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[Assistant] We're gonna look at a couple of lines here. Things I think these are lines I think could move. Uh, and I'm just curious whether you agree or disagree breach. And of course, and again, if you have any, uh, any odds that you like in particular that you want to mention, feel free to, or we can talk about them after the break on your best bets or any lines that you think might move. Um, Ravens minus six against the Browns. I feel like it's obviously in Baltimore.


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[Assistant] You know, there's the franchise history stuff where, you know, the Bravens stole the Browns. I don't think that really matters for these players or these coaches. Uh, what I think does matter is the fact that the Ravens are unable to really stop anybody.


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[Assistant] Like Danny dimes was thrown all over him. The giants came back against him and won the game. And I think this line could move.


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[Assistant] From Raven's minus six down to something closer. I don't know to get out of three, but I think that the Browns will get some love in the public. And as a result, we see that this line drift a little bit off of six.


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[Assistant] Six was pretty steep for a team that is 26 in the NFL and DVOA against the run.


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[Assistant] Well, that's, that's not really a, a, a strong case for why you should take the Ravens.


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[Assistant] Uh, the Browns really struggled against the Patriots at home.


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[Assistant] In terms of run defense by that same metric are actually worse to two spots worse than the Ravens. So maybe that's something to look for like.


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[Assistant] You know, Baltimore can get a, the problem with the Browns is if they can, to your point, if they can get a, if the Ravens can lead, it's sometimes hard for a team like the Browns to storm back because they are a run-based team. So uhm.


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[Assistant] I think, you know, you look at a total of 44 here. I can easily see this line drifting past that key number. Maybe I'm wrong and, and people, one of the Raiders who are coming off of, they are coming off of, yeah, they're coming off of.


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[Assistant] Yeah, both teams coming off a buy. Both teams probably needed the buy. Uh, you know, the, the, the, the, the Texans aren't very good. The Raiders are probably better than we think.


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[Assistant] Uh, or better than the record says that they are, they are currently in last place at one and four in that division of Texas one, three and one. I just don't know that a one in 14 that let's likes to keep all these games close.


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[Assistant] Every week necessarily should be a seven point favorite, even if it's at home and against, uh, a Texans team. I could see this one coming down a little bit. Obviously it has to cross seven, which is a key number. Uh, but I could see it dropping a little bit depending on injury reports and all of that. Uh, the one other thing that I guess we haven't factored in Breach. I haven't really thought about it. We talked about before the season, but, um,


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[Assistant] How have opponents looked coming to Vegas? Or is that, you know, you go to Vegas, you party.


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[Assistant] Like the Broncos look lethargic now that I think that Russell Wilson was out getting loose. Uh, and then the only other home home game that they've had was, uh, I believe against the Cardinals who they, they lost to after the Cardinals started very, very slow. So maybe that's one 20.


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[Assistant] And, uh, it was 19 to 16 against the, uh, Broncos, uh, in, in that game and they all scored them 13 to seven in the second half. So it really starts slow, but I mean, it's hard to know whether the Broncos are starting slower. The Broncos are just.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's seven points with a team that calls up leads a lot. That's sort of the same theory of the Ravens, right? Is that this is a team that maybe put teams away.


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[Assistant] The Patriots minus seven and a half. They are at home on Monday night against the Chicago Bears. A total of 39. Uh, look, Chicago just lost at home to the Washington commanders.


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[Assistant] The Patriots looked very good against the Browns. They absolutely throttled them. And I think that this is a spot, I talked about this on


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[Assistant] You have the recap show or we did early odds last week where it's like.


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[Assistant] Bill Belichick has to look at this schedule and think I can get back in the playoff hunt very, very quickly if I can beat these teams I'm supposed to beat. Uh, the Bears are, the Bears are not a good football team.


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[Assistant] Uhm, anybody, I don't know why anybody would attempt to suggest that they're a good football team. And you saw Romandre Stevenson look really good, two rushing touchdowns, 19 carries, 76 yards. Uh, you know, Bailey Zappi stepped in and, and threw for 309 yards and two touchdowns of 24, 34. Like maybe this guy is the new, like maybe he's,


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[Assistant] Uh, Mac Jones, Tom Brady, Mac Jones is Drew Bledsoe and he's Tom Brady. I mean, I don't think that's the case, but.


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[Assistant] Any impressive start for Bailey Zappi so far in his career, at least in terms of, you know, where his pedigree is and the pressure being put on him. So, um.


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[Assistant] You know, first Monday night football game, having to do it at prime time at home is not easy, but I just think the Bears are a very bad team.


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[Assistant] That, uh, you know, 25th against the run, which does not match up well for the Patriots. I can see this line creeping a little closer to double digits.


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[Assistant] Yeah, and yeah, I mean, he's not going to overlook the Browns. He's not going to overlook the Bears. All these games are going to matter for him. He's going to make sure, you know, the Bears get an extra couple of days of rest. I'm not sure that matters. It'll be a hostile environment because the Patriots are kind of, you know, they're now three and three. They're back in the mix. I mean.


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[Assistant] It's crazy. The Browns were like, could have been five and oh, um, before this week and you know, like first place in the AFC and you know, waiting for the Sean Watson to come back and then now they're two and four and the, you know, the Pats are look, the Pats look like a very competent team. The AFC East is actually really good.


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[Assistant] Excuse me, Dolphins minus six and a half I think is a possible mover here. And that's mainly based on the fact that we don't know exactly what the quarterback situation will be. It does seem like, um, it will either be.


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[Assistant] Teddy Bridgewater can definitely play in the game. Uh, and to talk about a little bit likely to play in the game because he actually cleared concussion protocol or that may not likely possibly play in the game. He cleared concussion protocol before week five and was, um,


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[Assistant] The, uh, and it was asked to, you know, like not play. And I think they want to be cautious with them. They don't want to force them out there. So.


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[Assistant] I would say that there's a chance that this line moves more if...


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[Assistant] Two is cleared to play. I can see that going above seven. The Steelers do not look like a great football team and I bet that Kenny Pickett cannot, although the Steelers beat the Bucs obviously, but they don't profile as a great football team on the road in South Beach and it's like prime time and it's, I would guess that Mack, I mean, excuse me, Kenny Pickett is not going to play because he is in concussion protocol.


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[Assistant] Yeah, like if two is conferred, I think this goes above seven. So like that's kind of a huge, I mean, not kind of, it is a huge number. Like you need, you want to get it before it goes above seven. If you're laying the points of the Dolphins, if you like the Steelers, I think you wait on this game. The Jaguars minus three.


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[Assistant] At home against the giants, the Jaguars just coughed up a really bad loss to the Colts. I don't, I don't really even understand how he was able to like, I don't understand how they were able to, to.


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[Assistant] score that touchdown there at the end. Like it was insane. Like the Jaguars had looked pretty good. I thought Trevor Lawrence played one of his better games of the year, uh, 20, 22, 165 and a touch. Um, and then the Colts just pulled it out. And now the Colts are three, two and one. The Jaguars are two and four. That division is flipped on its head.


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[Assistant] And I think that the giants who are five and one now for stealing a win against the, the, the Ravens.


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[Assistant] You could see that line trickle down a little bit getting through the giants.


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[Assistant] Yeah, absolutely. Because Brian Jay says in the comments, what? How is Jacksonville favored? Like I was kind of, I wasn't shocked that they were favored. Just shocked that it was like three points and not like a pick them. Um, the, uh, people are reading mean in the comments and like, what's going on? I mean,


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[Assistant] Bunch of state fans are like rave fans. My goodness gracious. Yeah, I think you get, uh, I think you tried to get on that line earlier, uh, then the possible if you'd like the Giants plus.


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[Assistant] Three. You actually had him at plus two and a half. Was it plus two and a half earlier and it's moved to three? Already.


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[Assistant] Interesting, so I was just dead wrong. I think that comes back the other way. I'd be surprised if the Jaguars were more than three against the Giants. Tampa minus ten!


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[Assistant] The Buccaneers are heading to Carolina.


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[Assistant] To play the Panthers Tampa, of course lost on the road to Pittsburgh. Any of my, any one of my survivor pools, Carolina had a chance to try and make it like a, a really weird day. I think 40% of the people who 40% of the entries in the circus survivor pool.


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[Assistant] I think, I think this line creeps up a little bit, maybe to 12 or something like that, because the Panthers are just not a good football team. You saw there's infighting with Steve Wilkes and Robbie Anderson. Um, you know, this is the big rah rah. Let's try and.


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[Assistant] Take down a team and you know, the, the, the dead cat bounce situation for Steve Wilkes and they played well for a half and they were in it with the Rams. And then it's very clear that the superior talent just took over and.


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[Assistant] I think Tampa, you saw what Wilkes' defense did, like, wasn't able to guard Cooper Cop, wasn't able to slow down the Rams offense. I don't think they'll be able to do much against the Buccaneers and the Panthers won't be able to run, which means it's going to be a lot of PJ Walker throwing. That's not good news.


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[Assistant] I just said, who knows if the Panthers will be good. They probably won't be. So go make sure you do something like fun historically and that's go see Tom Brady. All right, let's take a break when we come back. Breach is best bets next.


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[Assistant] Alright Breach, you got four early best bats for next week.


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[Assistant] Wow. And you're going to start by completely fading your own football team.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I like that. That, that, that could be one that actually could move too, like, cause the Falcons are just staying in games and they keep, they keep hanging around and they like to, they like to back to recover. I think they have two different back to recovers where they're like.


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[Assistant] Smash the like button, by the way, if you're listening or you're watching the podcast on YouTube or at any point, whether it's live or later, I like that early Falcons look.


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[Assistant] Giants, you mentioned it before, Giants plus two and a half to cover against Jaguars. Giants actually plus three. I was dead wrong at the move. Uh, but I'm with you. Like the Giants are immediately circle, uh, you know, circle the bet because this just


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[Assistant] I just don't really understand why the jaguars are favorite. It's kind of stinky.


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[Assistant] I don't really get the line, but we'll see. Uh, the Kansas City Chiefs minus three at the San Francisco 49ers. You actually had it as a best bet at minus two and a half. It's already moved a half a point. The Chiefs of course had that, you know, of the


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[Assistant] But now they head to San Francisco to play a, it's a revenge game for San Francisco? Maybe? I guess? Should we grab a revenge game?


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[Assistant] Yes. Chiefs minus three. I think that keeps going up a little bit because the Chiefs, Andy Reid off a loss, even with having to travel that much. Um, you know, I don't like put a whole lot of stock and not winning against Buffalo. The Bills are just a really good football team.


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[Assistant] The 49ers were just really, really banged up in terms of, you know, both offensive and defensive. Offensive line is a problem, although they've run fairly well. I probably like Kansas City there as well.


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[Assistant] Yeah, San Francisco's got a great defense, but if they're that banged up, it's gonna be tough to stop Patrick Mahomes. Again, Mahomes coming off a loss. Yeah, I think they seem, I think they seem bounced back pretty.


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[Assistant] Good if they get some of their guys returning and Kansas City is a top 10 team against the run by DVOA on defense, which is huge. If you're going up against the Niners, because you basically want to make Jimmy Garoppolo beat you. And if you try to do that, I think this could swing heavily in Kansas City's favor. Finally.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think I'm taking the points with the jets too. Um, Robert Sala looks like he's got this team cooking and Zach Wilson playing well.


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[Assistant] But well enough, priest hall is a stud and Denver just as you can't trust Denver, uh, you know, even especially in like a sleepy little four o'clock in the afternoon, uh, window, I will, I will, I'll, I'll back you on that. The jets are a good pick. I wouldn't be, I mean, I know this is minus three, minus one 20. So it gets moved back up to three and a half. I think it's more likely to get to like two and a half honestly than it is three, three and a half.


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[Assistant] Yeah. All right. There's a breeches best bets. There's my early, early new vows.


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[Assistant] Thanks for watching. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening for Breach. I'm Brinson. We will talk to you guys. Oh, after the football. Come join us for the recap stream. Of course. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. Talk to you guys later.


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[Assistant] And he's also not even letting you finish your question because he's resigning as you're finishing it.


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[Assistant] And real quick, the touch on pass obviously a good throw, but it came on a 12 man on the field where there was no risk for him. You know, so like, there's a free play free play. So you're a little, you let loose a little bit more on a play like that. And maybe she told


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[Assistant] Well, and the other part of that is literally on every single one of those in the first half, Kirk Herbstreet made sure to point it out. He was stopping the game. Like, look, here's three receivers. Justin Fields could have hit if he had paid any attention or if he felt comfortable making a real NFL throw, he's got to realize a guy who's only open by eight inches is open in the NFL. And we heard,


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[Assistant] Uh, Jay Gruden has said that thing, same thing about her cousins a few years ago, that you're waiting for them to get opened by however they were.


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[Assistant] Getting open in college or in practice. And that doesn't have the NFL. If they're open by a foot, if they're open by eight inches, 10 inches, they're open. You got to get the ball there. And it seems like fields is afraid to make those throws a lot of the time.


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[Assistant] He got hit while he was high pointing for the ball. Like this was not easy at all. I'm not going to blame a receiver for trying to make an absurd catch.


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[Assistant] The bears did not even in the red zone, inside the 10 yard line, three possessions.


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[Assistant] Zero points. They ran eleven plays on those three possessions. They called eight passes and only three runs. They're averaging the running backs. Let's not count fields because those were broken plays and, and so we won't say, we don't know, you know, if


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[Assistant] I'm not gonna, we're not gonna, we'll only count the running backs. Running backs average 6.5 yards per carry.


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[Assistant] Why are you passing the ball eight times and only running the ball three times when you ju- you're running all over Washington. I don't know how a team that never throws the ball ends up throwing the ball only inside the six yards.


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[Assistant] Like, I get going for it because the bears didn't have any timeouts.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I just feel like you kick the field goal, then there's no way you can lose in regulation. At the minimum, not only do you have the Bears have to drive and score a touchdown, but they also have to get a two-point conversion.


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[Assistant] So I kicked two vehicles this year and made them both, but they were both over 40.


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[Assistant] He's only kicked two field goals the entire season. Going into tonight. Yea, you don't go for it there.


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[Assistant] He made them both, but he made them both. It was 100%.


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[Assistant] Well, I mean, even if he catches it, we don't know if he gets the first down because the defender is right on, but he might have broken the tackle. We don't know. Well, it's a bridge.


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[Assistant] Especially when, real quick, sorry to finish Preston's point, that the, uh, Bears do not have a single pass play.


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[Assistant] Or, or they didn't, they had the long status for the touchdown. But besides that, they only had one play the entire night that went over 16 yards.


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[Assistant] And the, the Pettis play was a free play. So again, no pressure. So one play beside that, that went over 16 yards.


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[Assistant] You think he could have been in turn? It looked like there was a tiny bit of movement when he got his first foot down and then he firmly had it with the second foot down and then his third foot went out of bounds.


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[Assistant] As boring as these games were supposed to be, they both went down to the final play.


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[Assistant] You know, I'm glad you said he should have gotten more carries, Brenton, because


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[Assistant] Win on that final possession for the Bears, third and fourth or third and goal from the four yard line. The clock is stopped at 42 seconds. You are just pounding the ball running it. You are just steamrolling the commanders.


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[Assistant] Do you think about running it? Because, you know, that play's not gonna, if you don't get in.


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[Assistant] Uh, and I also thought that the bears kind of botched the end of the first half. Uh, they somehow...


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[Assistant] Completed a pass, got down to Washington's 45 yard line. The clock was stopped with 5 seconds left. They had one timeout. So you literally, you throw past the sideline, game like 6 yards. You can throw past the middle field for 6 or 7 yards. You can run a play in 5 seconds.


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[Assistant] Uh, and in four seconds, gain five to seven yards and give yourself a shot at a field goal.


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[Assistant] Nope, they throw Hail Mary. So it's just like, it's the same thing with the goal line plays in, just like there was no forward thought from this team, which I guess is why they're 2 and 4, but it was just amazing.


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[Assistant] How badly they botched the key situations in this game.


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[Assistant] I love that Kirk Herbstreit just went dead silent. He's like, eh, cover a 90% college trip. Well, I'm not getting into this.


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[Assistant] And how many damning articles have we read about Dan Snyder without anything happening? I mean, the guy, I don't want to say he's Teflon, there's never been any sort of smoking gun that can take him down. He has, he paid out a sexual harassment lawsuit, or he settled it, and so like,


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[Assistant] He has all of these things. He had the workplace misconduct, which also involved sexual harassment. I mean, there are just all of these things that have happened either with him directly or under his watch and absolutely nothing has changed. Maybe it's changed over the past 12 months, but, uh,


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[Assistant] It, it hasn't, it went a long time before that happened. We're talking over 20 years. And so if he has not had to sell the team by now, unless he is literally caught on camera doing something, I can't imagine he is going to be selling this team anytime.


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[Assistant] And well, imagine this press conference if the commanders had lost. Like, I feel like it would have taken a different tone and you're a lot more defensive and more abrasive when you're coming off a win and you look smarter and wins didn't cost you the game.


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[Assistant] Well, he was supposed to give up, obviously, day to day control of team operations that was supposed to be handled by his wife.


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[Assistant] But even in the statement that Rivera released on Thursday after the article came out, he said, Hey, I went to the Snyder's house and talked to Dan and Tonya about Carson Wentz. Well, if Dan Snyder's not supposed to be involved, maybe he needs to like go to the basement while this conversation is happening. Or maybe Ron says, Hey Tonya, why don't you come to the facility? Because we need to talk about this movie we want to make.


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[Assistant] I mean, you're still admitting that Dan Snyder's involved when he shouldn't be involved, so like, it's crazy that Roger Goodell and the league are trying to say, hey, we punish this guy, when in fact there's been no evidence besides the $10 million fine that he has been punished.


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[Assistant] That's the allegation though. That's, that's already the allegation. That's allegedly why he settled the case. He said he settled the case because it would have been, it was cheaper than going to court, uh, obviously.


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[Assistant] Well, I think there, uh, when he sold that case, part of it had a gag order, so they weren't supposed to talk, but Wilkinson could have them break the gag order, but Snyder's legal team said no. And so that got a hazy.


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[Assistant] Also tying his future to running out the clock on congress and hoping the midterms go one way or the other. Just 538 runs the election projections.


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[Assistant] Shout out to one of our followers that at halftime in this game when zero touchdowns had been scored said that, uh, me and Brenton should donate a thousand dollars every time a Thursday night touchdown gets scored in October. It was at zero.


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[Assistant] And imagine that FedEx field has never been talked about for another Super Bowl before or since.


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[Assistant] I mean, if you're ranking the worst owners in the NFL, just being the worst people, he's gotta be at the top of the list, right?


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[Assistant] Mhm. You made it out alive Billy, so that can't be that bad. I don't know how!


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[Assistant] Andy didn't allow any sacks against Jackson, but for the first time all year. So it does seem like they're figuring something out with that offensive line, which is the big Achilles heel we've seen all season. Matt Ryan finally had a blow up game. It felt like throwing all those passes, but he's actually been pretty solid in three of the last four statistically, you know, to do the eye check. I don't think he's played as well as the stats would indicate in those games.


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[Assistant] But uhm, he hasn't been a total disaster like he was at the very beginning of the year. Tennessee's defense, 31st in yards per play, but 32nd against the Pats. So I think if Indy comes into this game sticking with the game plan of throw, throw, throw like they did against Jacksonville, even if they're getting their running backs healthy, I think it benefits them if they do that.


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[Assistant] Especially if they're not confident in the offensive line, after all they're rejiggering that. Uhm, Indies de-gashed by the Jacksonville rush offense, but they're typically solid. They're 9th in yards per play on the season. Tennessee's offense is only 28th in yards per play, but they do very well when they get to the red zone. They convert over 90% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. So if they can get to the red zone enough,


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[Assistant] They should score points. I think India will keep scoring points. Even though the total is coming down, I would lean to the over.


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[Assistant] Power ratings say Tennessee should be minus four, but I'm kind of like more leaning to Indie the way they're playing. And at two and a half is the perfect user number. So I teased Indie up to plus eight and a half.


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[Assistant] Tampa's offense has no excuse for its sleepy performance versus a bang to Pittsburgh defense last week. Their offense is now 21st in yards per play. We're going to talk about Green Bay in a bit and how their offense probably looks pretty bad to us and not like it usually is. There's four spots higher than Tampa, so we need to talk more about how Tampa's offense


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[Assistant] Just does not look like it should. Uhm, they can't run the ball 30 seconds in yards for play there.


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[Assistant] Carolina's offense, like you said, just as bad against the Rams as usual, um, but they almost backdoor covered with Jacob East and their, their fourth quarterback, I guess, if you want to throw Sam Darnold in as the second or third. Um, so they almost covered that game too.


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[Assistant] I think on this line, Carolina's probably against a spread play, even as NFL's worst team, considering Tampa hasn't looked that good, but I don't want to do it. My best bet's here on under 40 and a half. That seems safer with how both these offenses are playing. I think for the listeners, the better play is to take the Carolina under 14 and a half, but that's at minus one.


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[Assistant] You know, minus 120, somewhere close to around where we usually bet. Minus 135 seemed a little cheating, a little hedging toward taking something that's a little too high. So I would go play Carolina under 14 and a half, but my best bet for the show is under 40 and a half overall.


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[Assistant] Right. Well, I mean, that's the thinking is that he'd, he'd be more willing to pay some of it than, than Cronkite was, but I just, he just couldn't.


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[Assistant] Atlanta's offense is top 10 in pass yards per play and rush yards per play, but they're more interested in running the ball, obviously, even with injury to Patterson, it seems like they want to be a run first offense. That's good against Cincy because their defense is much worse against the run where they're 20, 30 yards per play than pass. So it's an ideal matchup, I think, for Atlanta.


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[Assistant] Since he's passed offense though, should have success against Atlanta's defense. 30 second in sack rate. So if you ever need a get right spot for an offensive line that's had its issues this year, it seems like Atlanta's the team you want to do it against.


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[Assistant] Atlanta's had 23 plus points in five of their six games. They only missed out against an elite Tampa Bay rush defense. And as I said, since he isn't at that level, so my best bet is over 47 and a half. I think both these teams will be able to do what they want to do and score.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I think their inability to not close games is less of an issue against Cleveland. Pass offense is 24th in yards per play. Cleveland has to play from ahead if they get behind. I don't trust Jacobi Brissette at this point. Regardless of what he did early in the season, I don't trust him at this point to rally back.


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[Assistant] Baltimore's offense, 13 yards per play, first in rush yards per play. You're talking about how they're a good run team up against an awful Cleveland defense that, that like, as you said, is bad overall, 28th overall in yards per play. Um, so I think Baltimore gets ahead, stays ahead and covers the six and a half. So I got that as the best bet too.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and that tells you the market does not believe in the Giants. And the Giants are finding ways to win despite an offense as 30th and past year as we're playing 31st in Sacrate. They're not playing well offensively and they're getting wins.


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[Assistant] Uhm, the run game's been a major factor, like you're saying. Jacksonville's defense, third in rush yards replay, so they match up well there. Uhm, Giants defense struggles to stop the run. Jacksonville's offense just had 243 rush yards.


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[Assistant] My power ratings have this game around Pick'em, so it says jump all over the Giants, but it feels like a trap game and I'm kind of leaning on the, on the Pete side, though I'm not, I don't want to lay the three. So I lean to the Giants at this number and honestly, I'm kind of hoping it gets bet down and everybody wakes up and says, why are the Giants, you know, underdogs in this game, bets it all the way down to like one or something and then I might go Jacksonville.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I like the Chiefs too, at minus two and a half, I have it as a best bet. Their offense is great on third down and in the red zone, the situational, um, situ, you know, plays where San Francisco's defense is just good despite being the number one overall defense. They're not like elite, elite in those levels. Um, if they don't get those pieces back, several pieces back on defense, I don't know if they slow Mahomes that much.


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[Assistant] Feels like the ChiefsD is struggling against their run, just when you look at the last few games, but they are sixth in rush yards per play, so they may be able to shut down the run to an extent here and put the game in Jimmy G's.


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[Assistant] Hands. Uhm, so with the line down to two and a half, it seems like a teaseable line where I want to go with the home dog, tease him up to eight and a half. But I'm more interested in backing Kansas City at minus two and a half than teasing San Francisco, so I put Kansas City in as a best bet.


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[Assistant] If you like San Francisco initially, I mean, you should be teasing them at this number.


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[Assistant] Yeaah, you're right about Walker, uh, Chargers defense 31st and rest yards per play. And I think having a good run game is going to help Gino in the past game too, um, because they have to worry about Walker. Um, you say, well, Allen might be back. I think they have a bye the next week and he's been out for so long that I think they just hold them out for another two weeks.


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[Assistant] So I think we'll get value here on the over, but also lean Seattle. It's now at five and a half. I'm not really playing in a five and a half, but if you get six or maybe six and a half like was earlier in the week, I think that's a good play on the Seattle side.


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[Assistant] I'm on the other side. I love the Dolphins minus seven. I thought the defense actually played well against Minnesota. Minnesota had nine of their 11 first downs on two drives and they couldn't do anything else except for one long cook run to ice the game. And sure Miami has those plays where, where they're giving up a few big plays here and there. Um, but they allowed 181 yards of offense aside from that cook run.


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[Assistant] Pittsburgh's offense, 30 second in yards for play, not explosive at all. Najee Harris running into the line for zero yards.


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[Assistant] I think you have to hope Kenny Pickett is able to play in this game and have a chance because I don't trust this offense with Trubisky. I love fading a team like Pittsburgh. Not very good. Coming off an upset win. Now they got to go on the road to a place that has a tough home field in prime time. Just seems like they're, they're set up to have a stinker here.


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[Assistant] Uh, Miami's defense has kind of played above the stats in the past, thanks to the other ability to create turnovers. They don't look specifically like a good defense, but then they'll get turnovers and I think they can get them here in this matchup. So with Miami finally getting their quarterback back, I don't think the line's adjusted enough. I think the line should be nine and a half. I'm not worried about him getting hurts. Even if he does, I think Bridgewater does enough to.


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[Assistant] New England's offense now eighth in yards for play and third in pass yards for play despite Zappie playing half the games, showing he can get it done. Might not be him this week. It sounds like Mack Jones might be ready to return, so that should lift the line I think also because I think you have to still upgrade them. Even though Zappies look good, you have to give New England an upgrade when they get Mack Jones back.


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[Assistant] But Chicago doesn't seem as bad as, as I thought earlier in the year. I probably will be looking to play them in some weeks coming up, but this is a very tough matchup for them. So I like New England here at seven and a half, but definitely tease it down to one and a half.


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[Assistant] And how everybody else he mentioned and the offensive lines playing well, which they're not, you know, so he's like, whatever position group you are, don't take this team lightly.


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[Assistant] If we're confident in Dak South, over is the way to look in the, in the, again, in a Detroit game. Uh, but Detroit covered four straight off their bite last year as their run game took over. I think they could have something similar here. I think their offensive line is good enough to, to maybe give the, the Dallas defensive line a little bit of problems. And if Dak is rusty, maybe Detroit covers. My lean is to Detroit plus seven. Lean is to the over. Didn't love either one.


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[Assistant] My power ratings have them, uh, Raiders around average, but they haven't proven it in their record. Not often you see a one in 14 with seven point favorites. That means there's probably a reason for it. Um, Houston in a good situation though, coming off a buy like the Raiders on the road, I think that that helps them out. They could surprise with two weeks to prepare. So I didn't want to go all in on the Raiders, but I lean that way.


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[Assistant] Willson is not playing well, but I still think it's a big drop to Ripon.


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[Assistant] Considering that Hackett is the one calling the shots, you think about how bad Wilson's played, but he's probably saved them on some drives too from some whatever nonsense that Hackett is doing behind the scenes.


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[Assistant] Uhm, so if you have RIP in there, I don't think you get that. Uhm, if Wilson plays, I looked it back down before it gets back to three. Uhm, I, I put the Jets as a teaser at two and a half in my teaser column when it started to come down. Uhm, so I still like the Jets as a teaser if you're getting in that one and a half, two, two and a half range considering how bad the Broncos offenses look.


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[Assistant] I didn't downgrade Washington Power Rating at all with Heineken quarterback over Wentz considering how Wentz has played. I don't think that's really a downgrade. Shocking how much Green Bay's offense is struggling only four yards for play at home against the Jets D. Uhm, Washington's defense couldn't stop the running against Chicago. They should get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I would lean to Washington too.


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[Assistant] I like 49ers plus two and a half at the rams. I have this at...


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[Assistant] Uh, pick them with the Rams not looking great, but they'll be off the buy. So they get that advantage there, even though they're at home and you kind of like teams being on the road when coming off the buy. If San Fran loses to Kansas City this week, have to figure they'll be desperate for a win. Maybe if that they lose and they look really bad, the line goes up and we can get better value at three. But since I have the, my ratings at pick them, I think two and a half is the number to get on right now.


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[Assistant] Great causes and charities that are each $1,000 richer.


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[Assistant] We had last, last week we had City Dogs and City Kitties Rescue. Yeah. That was a DC charity. We had a Jets fan calling about that one.


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[Assistant] Uh, this one is actually pretty neat. So this one's gift of life transplant house and this specifically goes towards.


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[Assistant] Uhm, basically those who are in need, uhm, during a time of receiving a transplant or so forth, it was started by a guy named, uh, Edward.


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[Assistant] I hope I'm pronouncing that right. He's a real estate developer and he's the founder of this. He passed a few years ago, but he actually received a kidney transplant. His mother was the one that obviously was the organ donor in this case.


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[Assistant] And so it dawned on him that he wanted to start, uh, this particular charity. So it's called Gift of Life Transplant House, and it goes to help support those who are in need of, um, recovering from transplants.


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[Assistant] Uh, and that sort of thing. But, uh, a very, again, great cause. Glad we could do it. Hashtag take flight. Hashtag jets keep it going.


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[Assistant] Well, here's the crazy thing, right? They're four and two right now. Uhm, they're not still our favorite this week.


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[Assistant] Here's the thing, like people, Jets fans got upset with what I said before the season. You still haven't been favored in the first nine games, which is what I said going into the season. So again, that, that, you know, that matchup, it actually again is favorable towards the Jets. When you go back, like let's talk about last week for a second.


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[Assistant] The Jets, the way they run the football, and then as bad as kind of the offensive line, just the offense has been for Green Bay. I mean, not only one have they not been able to establish a wide receiver outside. Christian Watson was out. Vsauce Gardner might get Defensive Rookie of the Year.


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[Assistant] I think you need to consider Quinn and Williams up for defensive player of the year. Like I know everyone thought Michael Parsons is a runaway.


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[Assistant] I don't know, not so fast. Like Quinn and Williams from start to finish has been really, really good this season.


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[Assistant] People are going to walk into the season saying those two things. Like I think if you're going to like betting favor going into the season, defensive rookie of the year, probably Aiden Hutchinson with the Detroit Lions.


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[Assistant] Defensive player of the year, probably thinking Aaron Donald. Maybe you thought Micah Parsons after last year. I would throw Quinn and Williams name in that conversation right now. That's how well he's playing. The rest of their defensive front's playing well too. Their offensive line's playing well, running the football. So there's a lot of, like a lot of good takeaways, but it was also one in which you looked at it and you go, all right, like.


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[Assistant] That Green Bay team too, I think has some issues. You've got a blocked punt for a touchdown. They had a blocked field goal in that game. I mean, Aaron Rodgers looks so apathetic and like disinterested in like being out there. It was, it was one of the oddest games to watch. And like watching it take place, you're going, oh, they're going to win this thing.


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[Assistant] About a half time I was like, oh, they might run away with this thing. That's how, that's how bad green bay looked.


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[Assistant] It like, it was coming right at me, and it just flew into the window, like right behind me. I think that thing could be dead right now.


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[Assistant] It's not moving, full speed, right at me.


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[Assistant] Is that bad luck? Is that like a sign of bad luck when a bird flies in a window like that?


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[Assistant] Well that and I'm probably gonna have to pick up that burden to dispose of it. I don't think it's living anymore.


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[Assistant] Yeah, well, as I say, something's going to eat it eventually. See, the problem here is, is this is up on like a second floor. So I don't know what would find its way.


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[Assistant] Much like the bird. Much like the bird. The Packers offense seems dead right now. In part because, unlike the Jets, it cannot take flight. Like, this Packers offense just isn't having a hard time taking off throwing the football. Like, I would say going into that game, uhm, again, to touch on like, Sauce Gardner, and just their secondary,


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[Assistant] It was kind of a favorable matchup, A, because of how they drafted and developed those guys on the outside to be able to cover down.


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[Assistant] But also, you haven't had anyone emerge. Like, Randall Cobb left that game with an injury. That's one of the only people that Aaron Rodgers relies on. Uh, Robert Tanyan is another piece, but, you know, if you can't get the running game going, there's just no reason for them to really...


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[Assistant] Feel threatened. Like, the Packers aren't threatening anyone right now in the passing game. And I think you can see that. And it plays a factor in them not being able to run the football. And I think it plays a factor in just Rodgers not feeling comfortable with anything that he's seeing right now.


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[Assistant] It's kind of crazy when you think about the trade of Domonte Adams, and you got the contract you wanted ultimately, but.


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[Assistant] I think that hurt the Packers maybe even more so than it hurt the Raiders because even though the Raiders were a playoff team last year, I don't know that we looked at them as one of the best teams in the AFC. At least I didn't.


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[Assistant] But the Packers you did, like the Packers you looked at as the 10-bit bucks, the Packers, top two teams at the NFC.


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[Assistant] Well, it takes time. I mean, that's the thing is it takes time to be able to develop chemistry with any of your players, right? Once you get in the season, it doesn't help again. If you're not around in the off season, working on that with those guys, uh, you're taking days off during practice on that. All that stuff plays a role in it. And granted,


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[Assistant] Some of that's, you know, managing your body. And at that age, you know, maybe Aaron's not going to take every single throw he normally would have five years ago.


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[Assistant] But that just kind of comes with the territory. And every year I always feel like there's so much turnover and usually you get new wrinkles and different pieces on the team.


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[Assistant] It's going to feel like a new team. So the bottom line is they're still trying to find out kind of who they are. And look, it's early. I don't want to like overreact to anything. We're talking about six games in and it's not like, it's not even like even the Vikings are really running away with it.


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[Assistant] So, you know, again, everyone's gotta pump the brakes right now.


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[Assistant] Early on, give a lot of credits to the Jets, they're 4 and 2, I thought kinda 2 and 4 at this point, maybe 1 and 5 would have been more realistic for what their schedule looked like, but they're 4 and 2, and now, and again, they couldn't, not that they're gonna play it back this week, I mean, we all assume Russell Wilson's gonna play it.


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[Assistant] But it's pretty incredible when you think about the fact that they could have, could potentially face one there. They're probably going to face one in New England. Like knowing that Jets luck right now, and every Bills fan is going to hate me for saying this.


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[Assistant] I'm just saying like, be careful Josh Allen, like wrap that dude in bubble wrap. Because the way the Jets, everything's falling in place for them this year, like Josh Allen's also gonna have an injury. The next thing you know, you've got Case Keenum coming in and that's, they're taking on Buffalo with Case Keenum starting at quarterback. I'm just telling you, that's how the season's going right now.