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[Assistant] I hope people understand, like, I want the Lions to win the whole thing. I do, but I have been hurt many times by the Detroit Lions. And often times the most pain comes when the expectations are the highest. So that's why. When were they ever high though? Very rarely. Never this high. I feel like they've never been this high.


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[Assistant] Yeah, and so I don't have the Falcons in, uh, I don't have the Seahawks in, so you're gonna disagree with that one. I don't have them, and they were borderline last year, but you think they've gotten better than they were last year. I do, I do. I would expect them to be better, but that's okay.


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[Assistant] I'm taking the giants out, and I'm putting in the Washington commanders. I'm putting in the commanders.


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[Assistant] Ron Rivera's seen it though from Sam Howell and saying that he should have seen more of it last year. How about that comment?


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[Assistant] So he said, correct me if I'm wrong here, Pete, but I saw it, it was, it was, uh, when it got to the end of the year and he saw Sam Howell play, he regretted not playing him sooner. He didn't realize he was quite as good as he was. Quite as ready as he was. As ready as he was.


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[Assistant] So I agreed with you on the Packers. I think they're in. 49ers are in. Cowboys are in. Eagles are in. So those are the ones we agreed on there.


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[Assistant] So we should have said this at the top of the pod, spoiler alert, right? Cause you're giving away the whole playoff picture. If you didn't want to know who's going to win the NFC championship game, you shouldn't have listened to this podcast is what we're saying. We're giving away the answers.


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[Assistant] The funny thing is that the Cowboys are never an overlooked team and of course people are talking about them a lot, but I don't know how many people actually will pick them to go to the Super Bowl because of the problems that Dak Prescott obviously has had in the postseason. But it's funny because I feel like their roster and their talent level is a Super Bowl team.


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[Assistant] AFC playoff picture. Holy shit balls. Looks like this. Yeaah. Patrick Mahomes, a good friend of Chris Simms, close personal friend. Don't have numbers yet of each other, but will soon enough here. They are the favorite.


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[Assistant] Exactly, you could, definitely. I just don't want to be fanboy like that. Yes, yeaah. And he knew that too, and he respects that move. 330, plus 330 for the Chiefs. Bill's second choice at plus 500. Then you got the Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, Chargers, Jaguars.


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[Assistant] Second column, Brown Steelers, Broncos, Titans, Patriots, lower than I maybe would have thought.


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[Assistant] Uh, alright, so any, any surprises from the odds there? First of all, anyone that jumps out to you like, wow, I can't believe that.


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[Assistant] Okay, alright, let's do it, same way. We'll start with your number one seed, we'll do all the division winners first. So who gets the buy in the AFC?


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[Assistant] You know, it's funny, like, the Chiefs are, I would think, the slam dunk pick to get the one seed by most people. But if you do look at their games last year, they got lucky to win some of those games against not great teams. They definitely pulled it out, which they seem to do all the time. That's what they are.


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[Assistant] So now we're into the wild cards. Yep, sorry, I should have stopped there. Jeez. Okay, hold on, let me get that again. So you got it? Wait, so you got Dolphins winning the division in the AFC East. I do, right. We need to pause on that for a second.


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[Assistant] Okay, alright, so now I'm really curious. Yeah. You got three spots left.


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[Assistant] You got probably four, five, or six teams you could consider for these three spots.


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[Assistant] So ladies and gentlemen, Chris Sims is not picking his boy Blue in the Buffalo Bills to even make the playoff.


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[Assistant] I'm nervous now that we have group things somehow. And like, cause I didn't, I also did not, hey, Roto Pat walking by in our studio there, hey Roto Pat.


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[Assistant] The flip side, the other case I'll make is that we're overthinking it. We're just getting bored of the Bills. We're getting tired of them. Uh, and they still have a good coach in Sean McDermott and they have a great quarterback in Josh Allen. And that puts you ahead of most other teams out there every year.


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[Assistant] Can't believe it's happening. You and me both on the no-bills? And then they're gonna start seven and one and we're like, we're idiots. We are dumb. Uh, but you gotta make a stand. You gotta make a pick. Uh, we agreed on everything.


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[Assistant] In this whole playoff picture in the AFC except for I don't have the Steelers in.


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[Assistant] Uhm. You want me your chargers again? I don't have the chargers in. Wow. I think that the same thing with the chargers is like that window. It's just like they've been building. Are they really going to get over the hump? I don't know either. It's going to be in for Staley and they got to try to figure out something on the fly. Uh, I put in the Patriots, Bill Belichick. They're not dead yet.


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[Assistant] They figure out a way, Bill O'Brien back there, Mack Jones, that offense gets rolling again. They got enough pieces on defense and they squeak in.


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[Assistant] Broncos, I kinda felt like I should give them a little more love, right, Sean Payton? But also, they've lost Tim Patrick, they lost Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy's gonna be out for a little bit here. KJ Hamler. Right.


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[Assistant] Alright, so let's go through it then. Alright, here we go. You got, uh, you got the Raven sitting


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[Assistant] Alright, so my AFC Championship game, same thing. Ravens versus Chiefs. And I have the Chiefs winning. Uhm, so I have the Chiefs and the Cowboys in the Superbowl.


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[Assistant] I went through my mind at one point. So I'll give you mine. Yeah. Chiefs Cowboys. Yeah. I'm going Cowboys. Why not? Right? Right. Good roster. Who knows? I'm getting booed by Pete in my ear. Giants fan, your giants fan in front of me here.


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[Assistant] Go out there and find whoever's picking the Cowboys. I feel like I'll be in a minority. I'll be in a small group of people picking the Dallas Cowboys, America's team. Agreed. To win a Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] With Kyle. Alright, 49ers. Hopefully. Or Cowboys. If we are right. If we know anything. So those are our picks. We want the homies, obviously, to pick every year. We did it last year. We love when we get, uh, you guys participating here because, uh, you guys have, uh, have great predictions.


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[Assistant] Who's been right, who's been wrong, and if you guys are smarter than us, then you're definitely probably smarter than me. Time for the homies to weigh in this morning. We tweeted out the playoff predictions. The poll is out there on Chris's Twitter.


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[Assistant] Uh, winners at the end of the season will get some merch and a possible appearance on the pod. Now the appearance on the pod, that we can come through. We did that last year, right? So that will happen, the merch will not happen. Merch will not happen. So don't get your hopes up on the merch.


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[Assistant] The contest closes Wednesday, September 6th, 8pm Eastern, right before Chiefs and Lions. We already have 130 responses. Pete, you just put this out a couple hours ago, right?


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[Assistant] Like an hour, hour and a half ago, we got a great community of listeners. Ours are homies.


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[Assistant] The most popular Super Bowl winner, so we already have picks, we're already calculating these Pete, up to this point. Are these current numbers? Chiefs 23% so far, 49ers 15%, Bengals 15%, Eagles 14%.


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[Assistant] Alright, we'll do MVP picks at a later date, right? I think we, we gotta, we gotta wrap this up. Pete's got other things to do here. You haven't really thought about your award winners yet.


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[Assistant] Alright, so, uh, I like that. Defensive Player of the Year, I'm going Micah Parsons. If I'm gonna pick the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl, Micah's gonna have a huge year. I think you're pretty safe right there. He's the favorite. Yeah. Uh, so, that's it. We're done for this podcast. Uh, but we have a big, we have a big weekend coming up.


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[Assistant] Uh, on NBC, this is, this is a huge weekend. So you don't need to say goodbye to us just during the week. You can watch us now on the weekends. Chris is starting his working every weekend from now until the end of the year, basically. Yep. Um, NBC's got college football coming up this Saturday.


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[Assistant] You're going to hear our voices because I'll be at Penn State, our Big Ten Saturday night game, West Virginia at Penn State, the debut of our prime time game. So I'll be there doing some work on the pregame halftime post game shows. Chris, you will be at Ann Arbor on that same day, noon kickoff, our first ever game on Peacock from the Big Ten, Michigan hosting East Carolina.


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[Assistant] So all the Big Ten and Notre Dame games are all on Peacock. The Tennessee State Notre Dame game at 3.30 Eastern also on NBC. The West Virginia and Penn State prime time game of course that is also on NBC and Peacock. Did you see Notre Dame at all? Play? Navy? A little bit. I did not see much. Sam Hartman looks pretty good. Navy is Navy. I know, but you're right.


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[Assistant] So college football this weekend, NFL football right around the corner, and also of course that means fantasy football is here. You saw Roto Pat walking in the background, he's got podcasts out there, Roto World podcast, he's an expert, I would say one of the best if not the best fantasy football experts out there. Roto Pat, he's been doing it forever.


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[Assistant] So it is the biggest fantasy football draft weekend of the year. Make sure you're ready with the roto world fantasy football draft guide, featuring content from Matthew Barry, including player.


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[Assistant] Go ahead, open up the show. Yo, yo, yo, what's up everyone? Chris Sims Unbuttoned. Homies, glad you're here. Ahmed Fareed, Chris Sims. Hey, thanks for driving the ship here today. We're gonna talk a little AFC win totals. We do love Pete, by the way. We do love Pete. We do. We do love Pete. Did that sound like you at all?


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[Assistant] The funny thing is that like I usually am kind of like the more higher energy guy on set, you know, when I do horse racing sometimes, when I do rugby or premier league. With you though, I can't get to your level. Like you are always, you know, so, but it's cool because you're so like into it. You're always so passionate about what we're talking about every day.


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[Assistant] Welcome back to the, welcome back to the show. I haven't seen you in so long. So should we do the full disclosure? Full disclosure. Off the top here. So you might be wondering, it's like, okay, week three preseason. The final week. Right. Some big things happened. Yeah. Some important things happened. Aaron Rodgers, we got to see him play. Right. You guys gonna talk about it? We're not gonna talk about it.


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[Assistant] You know, like I always say, I think you are honestly one of the best interviewers in football right now and in media, just because you get these guys to.


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[Assistant] Let their guard down a little bit. And you talk about things that aren't asked, like you're talking about throwing and mechanics and just things that quarterbacks think about that, you know, media personalities don't necessarily think about. And so I'm looking forward to it too. Have fun out there with Patrick Mahomes.


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[Assistant] First game of the regular season. Exactly. So have fun with that right now. Yep.


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[Assistant] Patrick in Kansas City. I'm having fun. So what we did on this, what we did on this podcast, back in the day when we taped this.


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[Assistant] Was the AFC win totals. We did the NFC last time. So if you want the, if you're a fan of the NFC, a team in the NFC, go back and listen to last Wednesday's pod. Here are the over-under totals for the AFC. We'll go through division by division. All of these odds are from DraftKings Sportsbooks.


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[Assistant] Uh, the AFC is stacked too, as we have noted multiple times. Nine teams with win totals of nine and a half or higher. There are only six such teams in the NFC. So the balance of power, which is crazy. Nine teams with a win total of nine and a half or higher.


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[Assistant] Only what, last time I checked, seven teams make the playoffs. So yeaah, there's gonna be some disappointed, maybe nine win teams out there.


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[Assistant] The stackiest of all divisions. The stackiest. Is the AFC East, and that's where we'll start our discussion here today. Take a look at the big picture here, AFC East, the win totals, the odds to win the division, boy that is good.


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[Assistant] Bills are the favorite at plus 120, but the Jets not far behind plus 270. Dolphins not far behind them at plus 300 and the Patriots at plus 800. We've seen some divisions where the fourth place team is like plus a thousand or plus 2,500. Not so in the AFC East where you could make the argument that.


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[Assistant] All four teams are playoff teams in this division. Start with the Buffalo Bills cause they won 13 games last year. They were the clear class of the division last year cause they won 13 Miami finish second with just nine wins. Figure it to be a little closer this year. First of all, just off the bat, do you think it's going to be more competitive?


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's, it's clear that every team has gotten maybe a little bit better outside of Buffalo, maybe. So that's where we start here. That's where, that's why this is interesting, right? It's like all teams could be better, but if Buffalo is the same as they were last year, still might not be super competitive down to the last week or two of the season. They won 13 games last year. They're over, under.


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[Assistant] Is 10 and a half. The over is minus 150. So 81% of the money so far is on the over. Bill's 10 and a half. That's where we'll start the discussion today.


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[Assistant] Having said that, it's like they had 13 wins last year. They're already building in some regression back here.


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[Assistant] I'm thinking it's a little bit of a drop year. You might be picking them to make the playoffs, but that does put them on the... The bubble. The bubble. It does. Which is crazy. So the AFC East plays the NFC East and the AFC West. Those are the two crossover divisions. That's right, right. Sorry, I didn't say that, did I? I don't think you did.


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[Assistant] We're not picking the division winners, the playoff teams right now. You're a Super Bowl champion, but you might be able to gleam some information from what Chris says here on these teams. Jets next nine and a half is the over under. Last season they were seven and ten, but they didn't have the superstar. That is Aaron Rodgers. Now that they do.


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[Assistant] Nine and a half, they already think that they're gonna get a couple more wins. Do you think they're gonna get three more wins than they did last year? That's the question.


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[Assistant] Bills at Cowboys, home against the Patriots, home against the Chiefs on NBC, at the Broncos, and then Eagles at home.


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[Assistant] Dolphins could be one of those teams. We expect them to be one of those teams in the hunt. Nine wins last year. Their over under is nine and a half. So far, 82% of the money is on the over for the Dolphins.


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[Assistant] To the team that is expected to be the bottom of the basement in the AFC East, the New England Patriots have not said that, basically for 20 years. Uh, they had eight wins last year. They're over under this year's six and a half.


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[Assistant] The over is getting bet. 94% of the money is on the over at minus 140. That's crazy.


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[Assistant] I want to take the over. Believe in Bill Belichick that he is not going to have a 6-win team, I guess. Yeah. Cause if he does, he might be done.


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[Assistant] They have the hardest schedule one through 18, week one through 18 of any team. They are favored in only three games.


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[Assistant] Bill Belichick has not had under six and a half wins since going five and 11 in 2000, his first year with the Patriots. Like I just kind of threw it out there if they win six games and it might be the end for Bill Belichick, but like


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[Assistant] So that is the AFC East, the AFC North now.


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[Assistant] Four teams who I think you could probably make an argument that any of these teams could make the playoffs too. You got the Bengals, Ravens, Browns, and Steelers. Let's start with the big picture here and the Bengals are favored to win, but it's just plus 150. They're not odds on favorites. Uh, Ravens actually have the same win total over under, uh, but they are plus 235.


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[Assistant] Brown's not far behind, plus 380. And then you got the Steelers who never finish with a losing record because their head coach is Mike Tomlin, who I hope maybe one of these years, one of these decades will win coach of the year. Uh, he'll be in the hall of fame having never won coach of the year, but whatever. That's a topic for a different day. Let's start with the Bengals at the top here. 10 and a half.


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[Assistant] The over is at minus 130, so, so Vegas seems to believe that they will hit at least 11 wins. They are favored in every game except for week 8 at San Francisco and week 17 at Kansas City.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm not quite sure who I'm picking to win this division because I am high on the Raven. So I did have as a top five roster sans the quarterback, even though, I mean, I think.


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[Assistant] Lamar Jackson will even help them even more. He might have a career year, which is crazy to say as a former MVP.


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[Assistant] Uhm, could be a little different Lamar Jackson this year. Ten and a half is their over-under. They had ten wins last season. And he, this is interesting.


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[Assistant] Because they do have 86% of the money on the over and that has moved the line here. And so this is our first significant move from what it was in the off season when it opened to what it is right now. The line opened at eight and a half wins for the Ravens. It's up to 10 and a half.


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[Assistant] 83% of the money is on the over. It's at minus 135. And so it seems like people think the Browns are going to be a 10-win team. What does Chris Sims think? It's torture, this whole exercise.


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[Assistant] It's the defensive line, Myles Garrett, but you have added Delvin Tomlinson, Zedarius Smith there, J.O.K., weak sideline back there.


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[Assistant] Or, I think this team is really good, and I'm not picking them to make the playoffs. Maybe that's gonna be the case with the Steelers here, who had nine wins last year, cause Mike Tomlin never has a losing year. Eight and a half is the over-under this year.


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[Assistant] This is crazy to me. 95% of the money is on the over. How is that even possible? You can't get 95% of people to agree on anything. For whatever reason, we all agree that the Steelers are going to hit over eight and a half wins this year.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we do have the AFC South Pete notes in our ear right now. So I'm looking at here.


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[Assistant] And lose this bet, but uh, I'm with you. You're gonna go over too? I think so. Not that I make a bunch of picks here, but I'll go over because I believe in Mike and the Steelers. They're building something. I do feel like they're better than last year.


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[Assistant] We don't know that. That could be. And it totally changes. Delete what we just said.


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[Assistant] AFC South, now two more divisions to go. We go to the South, uh, take a look at the win totals, division odds. Jaguars are the favorite.


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[Assistant] Odds on favorite, minus 155. Then you got the Titans there. The second choice currently at plus 350. Colts third choice plus 600. Texans in last at plus 800. So nine and a half wins. That is the most of any team in the AFC South. That is your Jaguars. The over is getting hit. 78% of the money is on the over.


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[Assistant] It's at minus 140, so you don't even make a ton of money if you're right on it. Jaguar's clearly the class of the division. Clearly.


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[Assistant] I'm a little surprised on the titans at seven and a half for the overrunner because they were seven and ten last year, but I feel like they were not a seven win team last year, like talent wise, roster wise.


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[Assistant] So that means we gotta, we gotta go under on the Colts and Texans. All right, moving on to the AFC West. Uh, no, I mean, I think that is part of the calculation too. It's like how good are the Titans going to be, but how bad are the Colts going to be? How bad are the Texans going to be? Let's go to the Colts now. They had four wins last year.


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[Assistant] Uh, 70% of the money is on the under, which is at six and a half. So Vegas has put on paper that they think there's going to be an improvement with Anthony Richardson and what the Colts do with the different staff there.


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[Assistant] Six and a half. They had four wins last year. Will they get three more this year? That's what you'd have to believe to bet the over.


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[Assistant] Yeah, seven and ten seems like a optimistic. Yeah, and the fact that they only need to lose one.


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[Assistant] Yeah, depending on what happens with Jonathan Taylor there. I do think this is the kind of year where they could win six games or five games and you're still like, all right, I feel like we're going in the right direction, right? If you see some good things from the quarterback and some of those young guys pop. All right, Texans. This one surprises me a little bit. They were 313 and one last year. They're over under a six and a half.


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[Assistant] Now the under is getting bet. If you bet the under, that's minus one to 30. So you don't make a whole ton of money back. They're the underdog in every game except for week two versus the Colts and week 11 versus Arizona.


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[Assistant] Thanks a lot for our guy Will there. Alright, so that is the AFC South.


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[Assistant] We have one more division, the AFC West. And here's another division where maybe every team can make the playoffs, except for the Raiders and your guy, Josh McDaniels, but maybe they will, who knows? Uh, so here's how it looks. Big picture.


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[Assistant] Chiefs, no surprise, odds on favorite to win the division, minus 165. Chargers second choice at plus 340. Broncos not that far behind. The Sean Payton effect, plus 550. And then the Raiders plus 1200. They're the last place team right now. So Chiefs again, favorite to win.


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[Assistant] How many division titles have they won in a row now? Seven. Seven. So they're getting into like Patriots territory when they went on that run.


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[Assistant] 114 games last year. Their over under is 11 and a half. And as you might expect, people say, yeah, they're going to win that and more. 83% of the money is on the over. Minus 140 is paid out on the over. So if you think it's the over, you're not going to get as much money, but you're confident that it could be the over.


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[Assistant] They won 10 games last year, as I just said. Nine and a half is the over under this year for the Chargers. And 95% of the money is on the over. Oof. What is going on here?


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[Assistant] Will you be more confident about the Broncos? So they were a five win team last year, but that was without Sean Payton. And that was with a weird version of Russell Wilson. We don't even know what happened there. So that version maybe is gone now with Sean Payton. Eight and a half though is the over under. So they, if you want the over, you got to think that they're going to


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[Assistant] One of those where they are better, maybe significantly better than they were last year, but the under is still the right.


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[Assistant] The under is getting bet. It's minus one to 30. 73% of the money is on the under.


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[Assistant] Your guy, Josh McDaniel's over there, trying to build something with Jimmy G.


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[Assistant] That's a tough one as well. It really is. Will McDaniels call you out on that? Will he know that you picked the under? No. Josh, he is a...


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[Assistant] Here it is. We're done with the AFC. You chose 8 overs, 8 unders, which means overall, league-wide, you had 16 overs, 16 unders, the math checks out. We did it. That's kind of amazing.


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[Assistant] And when they did, I didn't nail the score, but I got the pick right and I was there somehow with minus seven yards in the fourth quarter. They went from down 22 to 19 to up 26 to 22.


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[Assistant] It really is, and the offense needs a lot of work and they want to fire Matt Canada. They need to get the ball to George Pickens.


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[Assistant] But the Steelers got it done. And there are Sunday night game this week at the Las Vegas Raiders. We'll get to that later. This is the Chris Sims Unbuttoned PFTPM Joint Megapix Podcast for week three. And I was true to my position.


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[Assistant] After week one when you kicked my ass, I don't need Pete to send us the full breakdown of who was right and who was wrong on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday. It's a Thursday issue and I was true to it this week even though I kicked this shit out of Christopher.


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[Assistant] I kicked your ass. Although we suck against the spread. Hey, anybody out there that's thinking about using our picks for purposes of...


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[Assistant] Put a little money down against the spread. I would say stick with the money line, not the spread. Yeah, I have people kind of come up to me all the time.


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[Assistant] I trust that because you and I are locked into the NFL all the time, all year long. This isn't just in season for us. We're doing this all year long. The only time we take a breather is when it all shuts down from the middle of June to the middle of July. And even then, we're still paying attention to it.


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[Assistant] I just assume that everything we carry around, everything we think about, everything we eat,


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[Assistant] Live, breathe, and shit as it relates to football.


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[Assistant] Above 500 by four games now and one game ahead of you. We got 15 weeks left though. This may be back and forth all year long. So let's get to it. Here we go. Oh, by the way, before we do that. Gotta pay the bills, Mike.


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[Assistant] We have the DraftKings Pick'em Pool. Every week this season you can play along with us. DraftKings has set up the free $1,000 Florio and Sims Pick'em Pool. Pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pool every week.


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[Assistant] But, uh, we're gonna try our best and we begin with Thursday Night Football. Giants at the 49ers. Once upon a time, 1990, this was the biggest audience in years, in decades.


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[Assistant] And then they had the rematch in the NFC Championship. That was the game where Joe Montana just got obliterated. Yes. Obliterated. Was it Jim Burt who hit him from behind? It was Leonard Marshall. Obliterated.


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[Assistant] Alright, uh, tonight, good chance the 49ers will destroy the Giants. 10 and a half point favorites is the home team. Giants don't have Saquon Barkley or Andrew Thomas or Ben Bredesen or Azizo Jilari.


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[Assistant] Gonna be a tall order for the Giants. So we talked about this earlier on PFT Live. We're both clearly gonna pick the 49ers to win. The question is, do they cover the 10.5 point spread with an over-under of 44?


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[Assistant] Yeah, as, oh my god. Are you serious? Here we go. Here we go.


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[Assistant] Let me tell you, that's one of our biggest stories of the week. Because people can see through it. When the NFL is going to fully embrace


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[Assistant] The sponsorship aspect of sports wagering and the commercials are going to be on TV and we talk about it and we've got the DraftKings thing.


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[Assistant] You can't act like you don't know what the spread is.


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[Assistant] And so when you kick a field goal with four seconds left in the game that covers the spread, people are gonna think that. Anyway, that's a different point for a different day. 30-17 is my score as well.


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[Assistant] I agree with you. If it wasn't what Kyle wanted to call a shit show of trying to jam six days into three to get ready for the game, it would be even worse. And I hold out hope it'll be closer. I hope we're wrong. I hope they cover.


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[Assistant] And not backdoor meaningless cover. A real close game. I want it to be exciting.


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[Assistant] But the 49ers are one of the best teams in football. The Giants should have been 0-2. They woke up.


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[Assistant] We both agree to start the week. Hey, it's football, it's on TV. We recommend that you watch, but nevertheless.


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[Assistant] We both like the 49ers to win and to cover. We move on!


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[Assistant] To Sunday, one o'clock, the Colts come back to Baltimore.


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[Assistant] What is it now? 39 years since they rolled out of town in the dark of night in March of 1984.


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[Assistant] The Ravens are seven and a half point favorites against a Colts team that might not have Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion.


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[Assistant] Week two against the Texans, Gardner Minshew came in and played really well. Ravens are seven and a half point favorites. They're still a little banged up. OBJ didn't practice on Wednesday. He's got an ankle problem. Who do you like in this one? Over under 46. Again, Ravens seven and a half point favorite.


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[Assistant] We had like three or four of them. Um, yeaah, it's true. That's true. But we're agreeing. I know. Well, hopefully we won't hear it soon. The exact same score for two straight games. And seriously, we finished the show. I had a cup of coffee, a little breakfast, and I just sat down and I just


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[Assistant] Did the, you know, put the, what was the Karnak, the, the, you know, and I, I, I did my thing and so far we've got the exact same score. Alright, let's move on to the Falcons and the Lions. The Lions upset me. I think we got Titans Brown first.


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[Assistant] Oh yeah, I skipped over Titans Browns. Well, I'd like to skip over Titans Browns. The over-under is 39.5. I think it may be higher than that. I'm not, I'm not gonna, you know, I rolled the dice on a best bet with over-under Packers Falcons last week. I don't know that I'm gonna do it again, but 39.5 seems a little low.


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[Assistant] Browns are three and a half point favorites on the short week without Nick Chubb. Little disarray. Deshaun Watson not looking good. Deshaun Watson clearly frustrated on Monday night.


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[Assistant] Either because of his play or because of whatever people are saying to him across the line of scrimmage. Titans come in after getting that win over the Chargers to get the one and one. Browns up against it after a great week one. Can they get back in the win column at home against Tennessee? Chris, what do you think?


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[Assistant] And I punched into Sean Watson. He's blocked PFT. Now, I don't know when he did at some point over the last two years. I apologize for covering this story about, you know, 25...


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[Assistant] Civil lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct during massage sessions. Sorry for doing my job. We haven't been mean to Deshaun Watson. If anything, we've been supportive of Deshaun Watson over the years. We've been ridiculously supportive of Deshaun Watson, so...


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[Assistant] I don't know if he's letting some of this criticism get into his head a little bit, but something's not right there, and we're gonna see it play out on Sunday in Cleveland as the Titans, we believe, move to 2-1 by the score.


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[Assistant] Of twenty to seventeen. Alright, now we get to the falcons and the lions. I skipped over the titans and the browns to get to the falcons and the lions. Cause this is one of those games where it's like, hmm.


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[Assistant] Blue a game they maybe should have won against the Seahawks. They get that big win, weak one against Kansas City and fall down a little bit. We know there are real questions with the Detroit defense. Falcons offense looking good. Lions are favored by three with an over-under of 46.5. Who do you got?


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[Assistant] Well, we definitely don't have the identical score for four games in a row because I've got the Lions in this one, 30 to 23. This to me is a get-right game for a Lions team that has high expectations. The Falcons, I think, have overachieved so far. They stole that game from the Packers. They have been consistent. And I'm not surprised by the start.


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[Assistant] People think the Falcons have been crap the past couple of years. There's seven in ten each of the last two seasons.


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[Assistant] Five alarm fire for Detroit because everybody had them as being the kings of the NFC North and a playoff contender and maybe could finally possibly.


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[Assistant] Saints Packers, Lambeau Field. Saints 2-0. Packers 1-1. 2 point favorites. Saints on that short week. You know, there's been statistics I see over the year. The Monday night team that has to go on the road the next week and the Saints were in Carolina so they had to


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[Assistant] Come home, and now they have to travel to Green Bay, and it impairs and reduces their total prep time. The Packers had the full week to get ready. I don't know if it matters. The Packers are two point favorites, with an over-under of 42.5. Who do you like?


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[Assistant] Well, close, close, not identical. Pete can attest. I've got 28-23 packers. And this one is kind of one of the ones I tentatively circle as a potential best bet, because two seems like too few.


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[Assistant] Of a number of points to be given to the Saints, especially when you factor in they're going on the road.


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[Assistant] Two Lambeau after playing on Monday night with the Packers home opener. This just sets up to me as a win for the Packers. Jordan Love has looked good so far, better than people expected, and I feel like the Packers win this and get to two and one. Texans Jaguars. Jaguars nine point favorites after losing at home.


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[Assistant] Minus nine before it moves to minus ten or minus eleven. I don't know how much that one injury is going to affect it. We're at least getting a shot at it at minus nine. Who do you like and by how many?


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[Assistant] Alright, I got 31-20 Jacksonville, and I feel like this is one where Doug Peterson, their second year head coach,


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[Assistant] Is gonna try to, you know, put a foot up someone's butt to try to get this thing kickstarted. He said yesterday that the it's early in the season excuses worn out now. It's time to get things right. It's time to get things moving. Only nine points scored last week. Plenty of opportunities. Thanks to Chief's turnovers.


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[Assistant] Nine points is not gonna get it done against anyone, including the Texans. They need more points. I got 31-20, and the Jaguars move to 2-1. The Texans fall to 0-3, and all remains right in the NFL world. The Broncos at the Dolphins. This one's fascinating.


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[Assistant] In many ways, we talked earlier about Sean Payton, who was going to be the Dolphins coach, the tampering with Payton and Tom Brady that caused the Dolphins to lose a first round pick this year. Dolphins are 6.5 point favorites. It's their home opener, their 2-0. They've got a couple of road wins to start the season.


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[Assistant] 48 and a half over under. Again, six and a half point favorites are the Dolphins. Tuatango Vailoa has only been hit four times. Only Baker Mayfield has been hit fewer times so far this season. Do the Dolphins run at the 3-0, Chris?


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[Assistant] I've got 38-21 Dolphins and, you know, it's always risky to try to do the connective tissue thing from one game to the next, but look at what's happened to the Broncos.


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[Assistant] They lose by a point to a Raiders team that got blown off the field by a Bills team that isn't as good as the Dolphins.


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[Assistant] And they lose to a commander's team that's screwed around with a Cardinals team that's one of the worst in the NFL. This has blowout potential.


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[Assistant] I think that some of these younger coaches kinda like seeing Sean Payton get his comeuppance after the comments about the Jets. And there's that past relationship between Robert Sala and Mike McDaniel from when they were with the 49ers. I just think it's gonna be no mercy for the Broncos. The Broncos are overmatched.


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[Assistant] And it could get ugly. I'll go 38-21. It could get worse. And I'm looking at this one. I know I love the home favorites. Six and a half feels like not enough. I think this is at least a touchdown win for the Dolphins. If not, 10, 12, 14 points. Or, as my score would suggest, 17. Alright. Time to blow the horn. Viking. With a couple of days.


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[Assistant] And the Vikings are one point favorites. Is that right, Pete? The Vikings are one point favorites? Alright.


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[Assistant] Well, uh, we disagree again because I-


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[Assistant] Even though I don't have a lot of faith in the Vikings big picture, I think this just sets up


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[Assistant] I said this two weeks ago about the home opener too against the Bucs, but this sets up as the Vikings getting off the Schneid against a team that just has struggled to finish, struggled to close. The Vikings have been in both games.


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[Assistant] I could see the Vikings getting a lead, holding the lead, maybe it goes back and forth, maybe it's game of the week. 35-31 is my score on this one. Justin Jefferson 300 yards in two games, leads the NFL in receiving, and maybe they do. I don't know how long it's gonna take them to get Cam Akers up to speed, but I assume the offense has


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[Assistant] And get him going. And if the Chargers, as you say, are having trouble with the run, maybe this is the game where the Vikings may be discovered. Christian Darasaw is one to watch in this one. He was limited in practice on Wednesday. I remember last week he was active for the game and in that 90 minute period between


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[Assistant] Listing the inactives and starting the game. He aggravated the ankle injury. If he can play, that makes a huge difference for the Vikings. And also, Austin Eckler is a question mark for the Chargers and their running game. So, something to keep an eye on. Uh, but uh, for now, we disagree.


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[Assistant] Vikings, I have, Chargers, Chris has, and we move on to the next game on the list, which is... Patriots at the Jets. The Patriots have beaten the Jets 14 straight times. Patriots are 3-point favorites. At New York, Jets reeling from that loss to the Cowboys. Patriots 0-2.


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[Assistant] Over under of 37 lows to the week, do the Patriots get their first win of the season?


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[Assistant] I originally had put down 2320, but now I see the spread is Patriots minus 3, so...


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[Assistant] The New York Jets, and, and who knows where it goes from here, but we both like the Patriots to win, we both like the Patriots to cover. Last game in the one o'clock window for the third Sunday of the regular season, Bill's six and a half point favorites at the command is a rematch of Super Bowl XXVI?


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[Assistant] Mark Rippen, MVP, game, game played at the Metrodome. Yeah, that's right. I remember being very excited that year if the Vikings could get their shit together, they could be the first team to ever play the Super Bowl in their own stadium, but


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[Assistant] They didn't even make the playoffs that year. 1991. That was not a good year. That was Jerry Burns last year as the head coach, by the way. Over under 43 and a half, Bill six and a half point favorites. Who do you like?


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[Assistant] This is another one where I look at the connective tissue. Commanders screwed around with the Cardinals. Commanders screwed around with the Broncos. Bills should have won, weak one.


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[Assistant] I think they just got knocked off, killed her by the Aaron Rodgers injury. They thought it was going to be easy and they realized it wasn't. Josh Allen searching for 21 point plays in the playbook, trying to do too much. That settled down, that evened out, total team effort. They blew out the Raiders. I think they win by 10 on the road, 31-21. As that running game continues to flourish, Gabe Davis finally


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[Assistant] In a regular season game, had an impact. Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things.


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[Assistant] And, uh, the, the, the commanders, they don't feel like a 3-0 team. Sorry, Matthew Barry, your commanders don't feel like a 3-0 team, and the Bills definitely don't feel like a 1-2 team. The Bills need this one, and they still remember how they felt in the aftermath of that week 1 game. I think they get the win, and I think they get it by 10. Let's take a break. When we return...


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[Assistant] The four o'clock games, including the suddenly beleaguered Justin Fields against Patrick Mahomes. We'll do that when Chris Sims on Buttoned and PFTPM continue right after.


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[Assistant] DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets. Instantly download the app and use promo code PFTLIVE when you sign up DraftKings Sportsbook. The crowd is yours.


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[Assistant] Alright, here we go, four o'clock games, week three. Panthers at the Seahawks. Seattle. After that embarrassing, unexpected home loss to the Rams to start the season, they beat the Lions in overtime. Panthers 0-2, the only 0-2 team in the NFC South. Seahawks are six point favorites, over under 41.5.


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[Assistant] Bryce Young may not play. Pete Carroll was doing the whole over the top Lou Holtz thing about Bryce Young yesterday. Young's got an ankle injury in the aftermath of the week two. Laws to the Saints.


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[Assistant] Let me just say this real quickly. They had a rationalization for taking him even though he was small. Because the trend would have been after what happened with Tua last year, no small quarterbacks. Right. No guys who were going to get ragged all around by defensive linemen. We see what happens. It's a copycat league. That's a reason to say, no, we want Anthony Richardson or CJ Stroud.


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[Assistant] Almost identical, 24-17 was my pick. Both of us like the Seahawks to cover and


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[Assistant] The Seahawks, I think, buoyed by their ability to go in and beat the Lions, stealing the Honolulu Blue Ski Mask.


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[Assistant] 12 and a half point favorites. This is the number one team in the PFT power rankings versus the number 32 team. Yes, the Cardinals.


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[Assistant] Barely lost to the commanders, and they were ahead by three touchdowns, and they got all these Cardinals fans that are pissed off because they're number 32, well somebody's gotta be number 32, and they are 0-2, and they've lost both games, and they pissed away a three touchdown lead. That's not good.


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[Assistant] The Cowboys come into town after winning their games by a combined score of 70-10. That's not good for the Cardinals either, Chris. Over-under is 43. Who do you like? And by how many?


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[Assistant] I've got, what is it, I've got the number here somewhere, I lost track of it, 40-24 Cowboys, and the offenses look good, the defenses look good, and look, we know that those correction games are lurking, and maybe the Cowboys look past someone, they can look past the Cardinals and still, and still cover.


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[Assistant] The Cowboys will find a way to pull it out, even if the Cardinals get lucky and get up by 10 or 14 points or something like that. The Cowboys understand that they've got something special going. It's still early in the season. They need to establish more momentum. There's some big games lurking, including Sunday Night Football, Week 5.


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[Assistant] That's gonna be, if they are both undefeated going into that game, or even if they aren't, that's gonna be a huge game with a huge rating coming up in just about, what, two and a half weeks. Alright, next one.


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[Assistant] Same spread, 12 and a half points. Chiefs hosting the Bears. The very bad news Bears coming into Kansas City. The Chiefs trying to give their home fans something other than the turd they dropped a couple of weeks ago to start the season after Chubbs dropped all those passes. Uh, 47 and a half is the over-under.


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[Assistant] I suspect we're both taking the Chiefs. The question is, do we both think the Chiefs will cover?


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[Assistant] You know, the problem with the Bears, Matt Eberfluss is still a new coach. He hasn't had a lot of experience and this whole Wednesday distraction with the Justin Fields comment and the Allen Williams resignation and the report


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[Assistant] 0-3 for the Bears, 2-1 for the Chiefs, 34-20 Kansas City wins. We're going to take a break.


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[Assistant] Prime time games next, including the Sunday night game, which features the first ever trip by the Pittsburgh Steelers to Las Vegas. We'll discuss that and more when Chris Sims Unbuttoned and PFTPM Joint Make-A-Pick Podcast continues right after this.


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[Assistant] All right. All odds provided by DraftKings as we continue the PFTPM Chris Sims unbuttoned joint mega piss mega piss.


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[Assistant] So, here we go with the joint mega pissed podcast, Sunday Night Football, the Pittsburgh Steelers.


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[Assistant] I, uh, I need to bring this with me on Sunday. I think I do. I think I will. Yeah, you should. I think I'll bring it. I think I'll be like Carrot Top and have props in the studio. First I gotta get it right side up. Yeah. So, uh, yes.


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[Assistant] Steelers, 24-21. Pasta and meatballs. Maybe we'll have that for dinner. Maybe that'll be the spread on Sunday night after we finish Football Night in America, but I- I-


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[Assistant] When you call it a coin flip game, any coin flip game,


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[Assistant] Mike Tomlin has a way to will the coin to heads. Another primetime game. I think, I hope, I pray that at some point this week, Mike Tomlin has gone into Matt Canada and said,


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[Assistant] Can we devise a game plan that would entail maybe looking in the direction of George Pickens once before the middle of the second quarter? Can we at least use this guy?


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[Assistant] And I don't think you and I have talked about this. I have a theory that they really don't want to create a monster.


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[Assistant] After the 2024 season. And I think they want to avoid that. That's the only explanation for it. Why would you not fully embrace this guy who has the potential to be the best receiver in football? And that's not an exaggeration.


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[Assistant] So, maybe they will on Sunday night. If they do, they win the game. 24-21 is my score.


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[Assistant] For the Steelers. It would be more effective than the one they currently have. I could do it. I could do it.


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[Assistant] You get the ball to number 14. Every frickin' play. Alright, Monday Night Football.


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[Assistant] Another, another, hey yeah, two games at the same time, yeah, split screen, yeah, come on man. We don't need two games at once, but we're getting two games at once. It starts with Eagles bucks.


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[Assistant] Philadelphia five point favorite. They get the extra day from Thursday all the way to Monday to get ready to take on the 2-0 Buccaneers who are at home for the second straight week.


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[Assistant] The over under is 46. Do the Buccaneers hand, or the Eagles their first loss, or do the Eagles send the Buccaneers to 2 and 1?


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[Assistant] I got 2421. Same thing, because I had to stop myself earlier.


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[Assistant] The Eagles are unbeaten, but they don't feel like they're unbeaten. No. They don't feel like they should be 2-0.


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[Assistant] Uh, and, uh, I think this one will be close, and I think the Buccaneers will give them all they can handle, and I think the Buccaneers cover, but the Eagles win, so we're in agreement there.


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[Assistant] Rematch of Super Bowl 56. Bengals are 2.5 point favorites. Joe Burrow's status is uncertain at best over under a 43.5.


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[Assistant] Rams 27-23. See the Rams get laid touchdown.


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[Assistant] Yeah. Hey, I've been accused of not believing in the Rams. Well, they didn't give us any reason to believe in them. They have the first two weeks of the season. They beat the Seahawks in their own building. They played the 49ers tougher than anyone expected, especially with that, that meaningless field goal with four seconds left to cover the spread.


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[Assistant] I worry about Joe Burrow. That calf is not healed.


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[Assistant] And he could sit on his ass all week long and when it's time to go out and play and plant your foot and move, what's gonna happen? It's gonna strain again. He's not gonna be 100%


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[Assistant] We've seen him struggle in both games. The Rams are overachieving. As long as their key players are healthy, the Rams are fine. It's when guys start getting banged up that it becomes a problem.


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[Assistant] Matthew Stafford is healthy for now. Aaron Donald is healthy.


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[Assistant] For now, that is huge. They've cleared out Cam Akers, who was clearly a negative presence. Doesn't matter that Cooper Cups on IR, Pooka Nakua, Tutu Atwell are doing very well for the Rams. I like the Rams to win this game. This is a way to kind of stick it in everyone's face, and I'd rather not be one of the ones into whose face it is stuck.


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[Assistant] Let's take a break. Best bets and Folsom Prison Blues pick when PFTPM and Chris Sims on button. Continue right after.


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[Assistant] Chris Hemsworth Button, PFTPM, my favorite little mini segment of the week. We have more time than usual to elaborate on our best bets on our one team that we take straight up. We call it the false imprisoned blues pick and Pete tells me I'm wasting it. Thank you, Pete, for talking while I'm trying to talk. Chris, give me your first pick for your best bet.


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[Assistant] Telling John Marra that you're doing that. That you're picking the Giants to lose by 10 and a half points. And suddenly, I am rooting for the Giants to cover.


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[Assistant] Look, I get accused all the time of always taking a home team that is favored. So, I'm taking a road dog this week. You gonna give me three and a half points? If I'm the Titans coming into Cleveland where the Browns feel a little wildly right now, I'll take the three and a half points because I think the Titans are gonna win the game straight up. So give me the Titans.


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[Assistant] Give me the Packers, give me the Saints too, for the reasons we previously discussed. That line is too low. The Packers are at home. The Saints are on a short week after coming from Carolina to New Orleans to Green Bay. Give me the Packers.


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[Assistant] Dolphins given six and a half to the Broncos. It should be a 12 point spread. I think the Dolphins are clearly superior. Alright, give me your false imprison blues. Pick the one team that you would take straight up if you could only pick one team. Cowboys over the Cardinals.


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[Assistant] Yeah. Chiefs. You're taking the Chiefs. The Bears are a hot mess. Yeah, they are. Alright, as are we. That's it! Enjoy the game! See ya! Let's go!


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[Assistant] Oh, it's Chris Sims on Button and PFTPM, week two of the Joint Megapix podcast. We are back. We're back. I'm in my usual habitat, as is Chris. Last week we were in that hotel in Kansas City that had no obvious indication that a football game was happening there.


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[Assistant] Chris at nine and seven. So he's got a two game lead after one week. We got 17 weeks left. I really have to get cracking as we move forward. Also against the spread. Eleven and five. Not bad. Making some money.


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[Assistant] For the people who have the discretionary income that they choose to waste on gambling, because over the long haul you can't win. Best bets, two and one for Chris, one and two for me. It's all very early, I'm not gonna get desperate. I'm not gonna change my method. Although your new method seems to be working, see? You just show up and you start picking games. You don't go into a lab.


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[Assistant] It's all in the hips. It's all in the hips. In the hips. By the way!


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[Assistant] By the way, this year you can play along with us. DraftKings has set up the free, FREE $1,000 Florian Sims Pick'em Pool. Pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pool.


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[Assistant] Every week. So the people with the best record participate in the pool. You don't each get a thousand dollars. And, uh, Chris, last week, I know I'm skipping ahead in the read here, but last week, over 25,000 entries and three went 15-1.


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[Assistant] 15-1 against the spread last week. That's impressive. That is impressive.


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[Assistant] And you have to lock in all your picks before the Thursday night game just like we do. You can't change your mind for Sunday night. You can't change your mind for Monday night. You gotta lock them all in.


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[Assistant] Now, or at least before the game begins tonight, Vikings add Eagles. We're going to go through every game as we do every week on the joint mega picks podcast. All odds are provided by draft Kings sports book. And we start with.


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[Assistant] Thursday Night Football. We spoke about this game at length on Thursday's PFT Live. The Vikings at the Eagles. Eagles are six and a half point favorites with an over-under of 49. Vikings offensive line banged up. Eagles without their top running back, Kenneth Gainwell. Without one of their corners, James Bradbury.


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[Assistant] Chris, the time has come to give me who you think will win and what you think the score will be.


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[Assistant] I accept what's coming tonight. I don't think it's going to be a blowout. And I do all the scores without knowing what the lines are, especially when Pete doesn't send us the lines.


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[Assistant] I put down 23 to 17 when I was going through the games earlier, which would mean the Vikings cover by a half point. I'm sorry Minnesota, I don't have faith. I don't have faith in primetime Kirk.


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[Assistant] I don't have faith in Kirk when he has to work on a Tuesday. That throws him off. I don't have faith in the Vikings in this spot. If they want to prove me wrong, that's fine. And I'm not doing this, like, cause they, like, as if they give a shit what I think. I just know what I've seen. I know what's coming. At Philly is a bad spot for the Vikings.


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[Assistant] And prime time is a bad spot for Kirk Cousins and I think there's some underlying tension there about his future and the Justin Jefferson contract and the defense is still a work in progress. The Eagles are still the superior roster. So I'm bumping my preliminary 23-17 to 24-17 to give the Eagles the cover. Eagles win.


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[Assistant] Eagles cover, sorry Vikings, you're gonna be 0-2, just like that. Five days later, season begins Sunday, by Thursday night, you're 0-2 with 15 to play, and they're gonna have a lot of work to do. Half the losses they had in all of 2022, they are going to absorb in the first two games of 2023.


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[Assistant] That's my take. And again, who knows? After last week, who the hell knows? But I think that the Eagles win and I think the Eagles cover.


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[Assistant] But they couldn't limit it against the Buccaneers at home on Sunday, so I don't have faith in them limiting it on Thursday night. They are gonna need some breaks. And they are gonna need to make some plays. And at this stage of the season, I just don't believe it's gonna happen. I think the Eagles are gonna have a greater sense of urgency after having a near miss against the Patriots. Alright!


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[Assistant] On to Sunday we go. We begin with the Green Bay Packers at the Atlanta Falcons. Jordan Love in game two. The New Look Falcons coming off of a home win over the Panthers. But the Packers look pretty good at Soldier Field. Packers starting with back to back road games. They are one point favorites.


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[Assistant] Who knows whether or not he'll be able to go, but I agree with you. I like the Packers. I am on this


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[Assistant] The Falcons, I don't know how much to read into their week one win because we don't know how good the Panthers are going to be. Similarly, we don't know how good the Bears are going to be, but I just believe the Packers can keep this early season momentum going. Jordan Love is checking the boxes and looking like the guy that they need him to be.


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[Assistant] I go Packers as well. I think it's higher scoring. I see that 40 and a half over under and I just feel like that's a little low. I think 30 to 24 Falcons lose, Packers win. See how I saved it there? I meant to say


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[Assistant] Packers win, but I said Falcons first so I had to say Falcons lose and I just blew it by pointing it out.


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[Assistant] Packers win 30 to 24 and the over, I'm thinking about the over as a best bet potentially. We'll see what gut feeling emerges from the inner workings of pasta and meatballs as the program unfolds. But that 40.5 looks low to me. Now you've got it under by just a few points.


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[Assistant] I think it goes over 40.5, but again, I'm going to file that away for future reference.


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[Assistant] Raiders at the Bills. Buffalo licking its wounds on a short week after losing an overtime to the New York Jets. The Raiders got the big win in Denver, spent the week


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[Assistant] But Stefan Diggs! Stefan Diggs said it himself! Maybe he was trying to speak it into existence, he said it during training camp.


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[Assistant] Watch out, because that Jenga tower falling down quickly in Buffalo if it happens. I believe it won't happen. I believe this is a sense of urgency game. I believe this is one where the Bills


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[Assistant] Figure it out. Now, that sense of urgency needs to be controlled and as I said earlier in the week, they need somebody in that organization who can tell Josh Allen


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[Assistant] Calm down. Ken Dorsey is not that guy. We know Ken Dorsey is excitable. Sean McDermott doesn't have time when the offense is off the field to come talk to Josh Allen because he's running the defense now because Leslie Frazier was the scapegoat for last year's failure.


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[Assistant] I still think with all that said, they're gonna pull it together. They've got to win this one. This feels like an early season. Gotta have it.


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[Assistant] Tough schedule. This is one of the games on the schedule that they have to win. This is one of the games they should win. There's going to be a lot of games where it's like, I don't know what's going to happen. If they don't win this one, they are in big trouble.


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[Assistant] I think the Bills will win. By the way, an injury to keep an eye on, Jimmy Garoppolo, limited yesterday with an ankle injury, so who knows how mobile he will be on Sunday. Keep an eye on that one. I got Bills 31-20, the win in the cover. That was my predetermined pick. I'm not trying to get desperate here and try to catch up to you, and if you're right, I'll give you your due credit.


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[Assistant] I do agree on the point that they don't really have many options in the passing game beyond Stephon Diggs. Jordan Whitehead plays for the Jets. He was the guy that was the most consistent receiver of Josh Allen passes on Monday night. So, uh, we'll see what happens, but that's a good one. That one all of a sudden is a game I'm going to be paying


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[Assistant] Much attention to on the new and improved giant screens where we watch the games in the viewing room on Sunday. I'm going to be watching that Bills Raiders game because Chris is going out on a limb. Gutsiest call so far, Raiders to win.


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[Assistant] The Bengals, when we last saw these two teams meet in the playoffs, they were in a position where the Ravens could almost win the game. Remember that? The dive over the top, the ball pops out, the long return the other way, and that changed everything. This time Lamar Jackson is playing.


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[Assistant] And that could be all the difference in the world, but the Bengals are reeling from what happened in week one. They are feeling some desperation. It's a two game swing against a division rival. You don't want to lose to the Ravens at home because you got to go play there later. Three and a half point favorites are the Bengals despite only scoring three total points last week in Cleveland.


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[Assistant] I think the fact that the Bengals look so bad on Sunday against the Browns will give them even more reason to buckle down, get their


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[Assistant] They're ducks and rogues. Get Joe Burrard. He got the haircut and he got rid of the headband. That has to count for something, right? There has to be an analytics factor out there somewhere that we can


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[Assistant] That we can rely on, that the haircut factor makes a difference for Borough. But they need this one. They cannot afford to fall to 0-2 against the Baltimore Ravens in this wide open chase for the AFC North crown. And, uh, Borough, you know,


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[Assistant] He takes on a higher level in the postseason. And maybe this is just one of those games where he convinces himself it is the postseason. They have to have this one. I got 28-24. The barely covering by a half point. I just feel like they're gonna find a way at home.


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[Assistant] They understand that the Ravens are going to be coming at them. It's an opportunity for the Ravens to kind of put an early dagger. This is still a long way to go, obviously, but you, you win this game on the road and, and you're sitting pretty in the AFC North, but, but that offense.


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[Assistant] For the Ravens seemed to be so sluggish to me last week. Every time I looked up, it's like, what's really going on there? And it's still a work in progress and they don't have J.K. Dobbins. They've got some injuries on the offensive line. I give the Bengals the edge, but this one is definitely not going to be in the best bet category for me. Seahawks at the Lions.


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[Assistant] Lions with extra rest. Seahawks bagged up on the offensive line. Seahawks getting...


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[Assistant] Beaten soundly at home by the Rams to start the season. The Lions!


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[Assistant] Disrupting the coronation of the chiefs with the hanging of the banner or the unfurling or whatever it was. They just kinda opened it up. They didn't hang anything.


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[Assistant] Lions five and a half point favorites at a sold out forward field with plenty of blue ski masks on Sunday, four and a half.


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[Assistant] I was always leaning, look, I'm not gonna ignore what we experienced last Thursday night.


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[Assistant] And you completely squander whatever goodwill you created by beating the chiefs if you lay an egg or piss down your leg as you would say and piss the bed simultaneously and shit the bed, sorry, at, Pete, let me finish, at Ford Field.


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[Assistant] So, this is Detroit, 34-20, my pick, we both have them winning, we both have them covering. Now, battle of a couple of rookie quarterbacks, CJ Stroud hosting Anthony Richardson, the Colts at the Texans, Indianapolis, a one point road favorite, 39.5 over-under.


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[Assistant] Colts impressed us last week. The Texans wasn't really sure what to make of it because that was a difficult spot to go into Baltimore and play week one with your, your debut for the second overall pick in the draft. Does CJ Stroud get his first win or does Anthony Richardson?


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[Assistant] It's not, it's not, it's not a Tom Brady game at Buffalo. Alright, uh, I'll go with the Colts 24-21 over the Texans. I just, I, I like Anthony Richardson and you know, we showed the, the package of his highlights and when you see that, it's encouraging about what the Colts have. I think they can go in and win this game cause I just, I just


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[Assistant] Not that it mattered that they had extra time last Thursday night. Andy Reid usually stellar when he has extra time. Three and a half point favorites on the road against the Jaguars with the highest over under of the week of 51. Chris Jones is back in the fold. Travis Kelsey, limited in practice on Wednesday. Will he be able to go?


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[Assistant] Everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong for the Chiefs last week, and they barely lost the game to the Lions. I don't want to take anything from the Lions, but...


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[Assistant] A lot of things had to happen for that game to turn out the way it did. Do the Chiefs get it right? Do they find guys who can catch the ball? Can they overcome a Jaguars team that felt a little wobbly at times against the Colts on the road in week one, Chris?


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[Assistant] You know, I see the line, I see the over-under and it makes me smile because when I was picking the scores without the benefit of either, I went 27-24 Chiefs. Right on the over-under number 51 and just a half point.


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[Assistant] Under the Jaguars cover, and I'm not going to change it. I'm sticking with 27-24. Jaguars cover, Chiefs win. Close exciting game down to the wire. Harrison-Butker 48-yard field goal for the win. If I'm right, play it on Thursday of next week. If I'm wrong, never mention it again. But the Chiefs just need this one.


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[Assistant] They can't go to 0-2. And the Jaguars are still kind of a work in progress. They're gonna get the full force of what the Chiefs have. Kaderi's Tony can't have another game like that. And if he starts dropping passes again, get him the hell off the field. If Skymore's not doing anything, get him the hell off the field. Go with the guys who are getting it done. That's the one thing that


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[Assistant] Don't keep forcing at the guys who aren't getting it done. You've got other guys who were getting it done. Get the ball to them. Alright.


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[Assistant] Next up, one o'clock eastern on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Chicago Bears. The Bucs two and a half point favorites at home after beating the Vikings on the road. The Bears looked like shit last week. How are the Buccaneers only two and a half point favorites with an over-under of 40.5? I think you can get an idea of where I'm going on this one. Chris, where are you going?


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[Assistant] Figured out the Brian Flores defense, running hard with the salty comments of Byron Murphy Jr. and then the key third and two run where he got clotheslined but still got the first down, the throw to Chris Godwin. They've still got some players in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They've got a defense.


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[Assistant] Even though they gave up a lot of yards, they only gave up 17 points to one of the better offenses in the NFL. And the Bears are coming in there with Justin Fields and not much else. Chase Claypool is in the doghouse, Chris.


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[Assistant] I'm sure you've seen the video of Claypool half-assing it in the


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[Assistant] Run game. Look, this is a guy who thought he was going to be a star receiver. He hasn't gotten his second contract. He's in his contract year. He better wake up quickly or he's never going to get paid what he thinks he's owed or anything remotely close to it. That's a problem for the Bears. I like the Bucks in this one, 23 to 17. So I'll take the win and the cover for Tampa Bay. Charger!


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[Assistant] That's a great point. That's a great point. And again, is it the quarterback? Is it the offense? It doesn't matter because the receivers aren't going to want to be part of it if the ball's not being put in the air enough to their liking. Chargers!


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[Assistant] Traveling to Nashville to take on the Titans. Chargers are 3 point favorites after losing at home to start the season. Titans felt like they were going to beat the Saints, but they didn't. Both teams 0 and 1. Again, Chargers favored by 3 over under a 45.5. Who do you got?


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[Assistant] I think Mike Vrabel is a great coach, better coach than Brandon Staley, all due respect to Coach Staley, but Vrabel is underrated, but he can only work with what he has. And that Ryan Tannehill three interception performance on Sunday at the Superdome, where they would have won.


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[Assistant] Boo birds are gonna be out if they don't get something going quickly and you hit the nail on the head. Who is getting separation?


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[Assistant] in that passing game. There's nobody that's stretching the field. There's nobody that's making it easier to operate the rest of the offense and take advantage of the presence of DeAndre Hopkins. Derek Henry is still Derek Henry, but you still need to have a quarterback who's not going to give the ball to the other team. And the Chargers offense, very tough to stop. That Dolphins defense is good.


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[Assistant] And the Chargers still scored plenty of points in that week one game. So I got Chargers 27-20. Let's take a break. When we come back, the four o'clock games from Sunday, including the Jets on a short week going down to Dallas, more PFTPM and Chris Sims unbuttoned right after this.


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[Assistant] PFTPM and Chris Sims on Button, Joint Megapix Podcast, Week 2. We have made it through the Thursday game, the 1 o'clock games. It is on to the 4.05 and 4.25 games. We'll start with the Giants at the Cardinals. The Giants...


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[Assistant] Blown out, sir. 40 to nothing at home to start the season. The Cardinals hung in there with the commanders, but still lost the game. Both teams own one. Giants are five and a half point favorites on the road in Arizona with over under a 40. Chris, go!


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[Assistant] It is amazing to me how many people think the Giants should just disband the franchise after losing 40 to nothing at home on Sunday night. Stuff happened early, and it created an avalanche, and they could never get out of it. They go to face a Cardinals team that, frankly, my big takeaway from their Week 1 game is, maybe the Commanders aren't very good.


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[Assistant] Because the Cardinals aren't prioritizing winning in 2023. I understand the players want to win and the coaching staff, I guess, is at least going through the motions and trying. I don't know whether or not the coaching staff is in on the tank.


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[Assistant] That offense. We had high hopes for what Darren Waller could do, and if he could stretch the field, it kind of supercharges the offense. So, more pressure on Daniel Jones. Saquon Barkley needs to step up. You get forced away from the running game early when you find yourself down 23-0. I like the Giants in this one. 28-17, it could get worse than that because the Giants need it, and I feel like the Cardinals


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[Assistant] The Cardinals are on track to not be very good at all this year. Next game, 49ers at the Rams. 49ers will take over SoFi Stadium. If they took over the field formerly known as Hines.


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[Assistant] I almost said the actual name of the stadium. The field formerly named as Hines.


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[Assistant] They're gonna take over SoFi, as they usually do. 7.5 point favorites, Rams at home, 45 over under. Chris, who do you like?


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[Assistant] When I made reference to the chess match that is an NFL game, it's only a chess match if one team isn't made up of pawns and the other team isn't made up of queens and rooks. Now look, the Rams were good enough to go beat Seattle, but the 49ers


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[Assistant] Are a no-pawn team. And the 49ers look like they are ready to beat the hell out of everyone they face this year through the playoffs. No close games. Leave no doubt. Roll out of bed and kick your ass.


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[Assistant] And they're on a mission this year. You could just feel it last week.


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[Assistant] And I think it continues this week. The 49ers make easy work of the Rams. Sorry Rams, but the 49ers are just one of the best teams in football. Period. And they've got a great roster and a great coaching staff and off they go. Jets at the Cowboys!


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[Assistant] You've already picked one upset this week with the Raiders over the Bills. Do you believe the Jets can go to Dallas and pull out a win over the Cowboys?


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[Assistant] You know, I can't get the number 2720 out of my brain on this, so I'm gonna ride with it. 2720 Cowboys. It's too much to expect the Jets to pull it all together and go there and win this game.


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[Assistant] I wouldn't have expected them to win the game if Aaron Rodgers was healthy. The only equalizer is, the Cowboys were probably preparing for this game.


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[Assistant] You know, this was one of those, hey, we know that we've got Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy knows Aaron Rodgers and they probably had some ideas and they had to rip it all up as of Monday night and say, well, we got to figure out what they're going to do. And that's where there is a bit of a chess match in this one. It's not pawns versus queens and rooks. The Jets have a great defense. The Jets can run the ball.


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[Assistant] And even if they keep it close, that's a win for the Jets. That's something you feel good about. It propels you into week three against the Patriots, week four against the Chiefs, week five against the Broncos. I think they can keep it close. I think they will keep it close and hey, if they would win that game,


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[Assistant] Watch out for the Jets in 2023. So 27-20, we both agree on the winner and the team that we'll cover. Last game in the 4 o'clock window. Commanders go to Denver. Broncos lost by a point.


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[Assistant] Last week, commanders won by four at home, Broncos a three and a half point favorites, over under of 39. Chris, who do you got?


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[Assistant] I got 24-17, so we're on the same page. One of the weird things about that week one game, Sean Payton pointed this out.


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[Assistant] Each team had 6 possessions, which is rare. Usually you get 10 to 12 each, so points were at a premium. There weren't a lot of explosive plays for either team. Long drives. The Broncos did well. Decision making of Russell Wilson got a check.


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[Assistant] I don't know what to think of the commanders. I don't know what to make of them. I was concerned that they had to fight and scratch and claw to beat the Cardinals, who I believe are the worst team in football. So I like the Broncos to get their win, to avoid an 0-2 starter to Sean Payton, and to get to 1-1. We're going to take a break. When we return, Primetime Games.


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[Assistant] Three of them between Sunday and Monday night, headlined by, easy for him to say, Mike McDaniel against Bill Belichick. We'll do that next year on Chris Sims on Button, and P.S. on PM.


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[Assistant] PFTPM, Chris Sims Unbuttoned, week two, joint Megapix podcast, primetime games, Sunday and Monday night. Two Monday night games this week. I don't like it. Chris doesn't like it. I like to watch one game at a time. Not two at the same time. I don't like it. They never asked me. If.


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[Assistant] You know, I agreed with the approach. Let's start with Sunday night.


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[Assistant] Dolphins at the Patriots. Dolphins coming off of that big win at the Chargers. 466 passing yards from Tuatanga by Loa.


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[Assistant] I've got 28, 23 dolphins, exact same reasoning that you have articulated. There's just, look.


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[Assistant] We develop a sense early in the season of teams that have a special vibe to them, and if the Dolphins can keep their key players healthy, they have that special vibe. They seem to be better than everyone else. The Vic Fangio defense, Tua and Tyree Kill, Mike McDaniel drawing things up, no matter


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[Assistant] How well Bill Belichick can do in trying to counter things, he just doesn't have the players right now to match the Dolphins. So 28-23 for me, we both have the Dolphins winning, we both have the Dolphins covering. Monday Night Football, the early game about which no one cares. Sorry Saints and Panthers. Saints at Carolina, favored by three with an over-under of 40. Chris, do the Saints get to 2-0?


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[Assistant] I've got 23, oh man, that was before I saw the line. I've got 23, 20 saints. I'll go 24, 20. I'll give the saints the cover.


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[Assistant] We still don't know what to make of Bryce Young. I don't know what to make of Bryce Young. I don't know what to make of the Panthers offense. And I think Derek Carr, he's kind of got that Kirk Cousins vibe, except when it comes to prime time, because Carr actually can win games played at night, win in the regular season, position the team for the postseason, and then


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[Assistant] That's one of the excuses they make for him privately. Well, you know, when you're playing in prime time, you're playing a pretty good team. So it's harder to win. Right. But somebody's winning that game and it's not Kirk. So, so, uh, regardless. Yeah, I know. Browns and Steelers.


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[Assistant] Browns are two point favorites at Hines Field. The field formerly known as Hines. What's the world coming to? This is the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is Mike Tomlin. They got embarrassed week one and the Browns embarrassed the Bengals. This just has to me. Ah, here it comes. He's got


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[Assistant] I got the Steelers 17-14 in an old school, low scoring, hard hitting game. Look, you know Mike Tomlin.


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[Assistant] You think he hasn't been up their ass all week after that no-show performance against the 49ers? You think they can't wait to get on the field for three hours so they don't have to listen to him just like you couldn't wait to play so you wouldn't have to listen to John Gruden? This is a guy who learned his craft under John Gruden. He has been wearing them out, I suspect.


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[Assistant] They're not gonna get embarrassed at home with everyone watching. Are you kidding me? They can't afford to have that happen or they're gonna be done this year or what's gonna happen is they're gonna start 2 and 6 or whatever it was last year and rebound and finish above 500 but they can't dig another hole like this. They can't go out.


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[Assistant] Against the Browns and play like they did last Sunday. That was the wake up call and the alarms ringing and they're going to roll out of bed. And I think barely beat the Browns, but beat the Browns to get to one and one.


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[Assistant] Hey, I don't mean any disrespect to the grounds on this. She's just Pittsburgh a week after they got the shit kicked out of them and got embarrassed at home.


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[Assistant] Chris Simms unbuttoned, PFTPM. We move to the best bet segment in the Folsom Prison Blues pick. By the way, we disagree on five games straight up, six against the spread. Give me your first best bet.


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[Assistant] Lions covering five and a half against the Seahawks. I like it a home favorites. Give me the Lions. Okay. And I like it a Jackson Div...


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[Assistant] Buccaneers covering the spread. Two and a half points at home against the Chicago Bears. Bears looked too bad last week. Alright, Folsom Prison Blues. Who do you got? Tell me who you got. Straight up. Straight up. I got the Giants.


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[Assistant] That's right, baby. We're back. It's Ahmed Fareed. It's Chris Sims. It's Chris Sims, um, Button. We're here. It's a Wednesday. We have preseason games on the horizon.


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[Assistant] We're getting you up to date with all things NFL. We hit the NFC on Monday. One player to watch today. We will hit the AFC. We have some breaking news as well. It's not really breaking, but just some news at the top.


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[Assistant] Breaking news, maybe. Well, if you haven't seen Hard Locks, right, it'd be breaking news. I didn't see it. Yeah, I know. I mean, geez. Second host today.


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[Assistant] My ha- I mean, my parents just got internet probably like last week anyway, so we didn't- definitely didn't have it in 1997. That's for sure. Pictures would load. Pictures would load. Right. That was in high school for us. College, we went there and they wanted emails and I was like, email? I don't have an email?


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[Assistant] Alright, I got into a number of years in the NFL and still didn't have an email. I really didn't get an email until I started working in this side of the business. Really? 100%.


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[Assistant] I went forever. Like when I got the Bleacher report, they were like, what's your email? And I was like, I don't have one. And their heads almost blew off. So you, so if, so no one could contact you unless they had your number, right? Which is the way it should be. That's right.


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[Assistant] Text me, please. Why do we need an email? I get things all the time from like the radio producers, whatever. I'm going to send you the link. What email should I send it to you? And I go, how about this text that we're on right now? Just send it here. So you know I'm the opposite.


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[Assistant] Damn, email, uuuh. Like, please, I got 147 text messages here, and now I gotta go, oh, let me go look at some other text messages that are just on a computer. Like, it's annoying, okay?


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[Assistant] I just have one, one email. Don't give it out. I know. But yea, I mean there's technically something through work that I have that's like an at NBC or whatever. People are emailing you all the time and you've never checked. I don't even know it, right. I don't even know if I know the exact what it is. But yea, I have one email that my wife made up for me because I did not have it.


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[Assistant] Even at New England, I went to the Patriots and didn't have one. They had to give me one that was specific to the Patriots, whatever, building or whatever. But yea, still didn't have an outside one then. Alright, so that was breaking news. Yea. You didn't have email until you were like,


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[Assistant] It's, it's, I, I, to me it was the best first episode of Hard Knocks that I ever saw ever. And I, I love Hard Knocks, so I'm not one that's sitting here that's going, oh, Hard Knocks has played out, or boring, whatever. I, I enjoy it. I look forward, I mean, I was sitting there last night, like, you know, like 8 o'clock, like, wait, is it on at 9 or 10? Let me, let me make sure I got it on the, you know, the right channel here, whatever.


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[Assistant] Right, so, so, and then in my bedroom, for whatever reason, my DirecTV wasn't working, but I have Apple TV, and I go to HBO Max, which they now call just Max, I believe, right, and did that, but uhm, this is where it's different to me.


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[Assistant] Never have we had this access to this type of player. There's never been this type of star who's just the main guy and he's going, Mike me up every day, interview me whenever, put the camera in front of my face. We've never had


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[Assistant] An all time legend being like the focal point and then embracing it.


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[Assistant] For a Hard Knock special. You know, I was kind of making fun of before the show. It's always like, and there's this guy that you've never heard of that might make the team. And then there's this guy that you've never heard of that worked really hard and has had some tough breaks in life and he won't make the team. Right. And let's see how it all comes together as a team.


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[Assistant] This one is more like, I mean, hey, it's a spectacle, and they are embracing it, and it's just like, holy shit, it's New York, it's Rodgers, it's the Jets, and the stars are out, and then Rodgers is embracing it. And that's what makes it cool. And then what makes it even cooler is,


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[Assistant] You get to see a first-hand look, a little bit like we talked about on Monday, and I talked about even last week, of the


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[Assistant] The grandiosity of Aaron Rodgers into that building. And the effects, right? Because again, they have some great coaches there. They have coaches.


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[Assistant] That haven't been with somebody like this. Somebody like this, they don't, these are rare, right? I mean we're talking about like people I can, only fingers in my hands and that's as far as it goes.


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[Assistant] Hayden Manning, Tom Brady, you know, the Brett Farbs of the world, the John Elwes, whatever, right? Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have this magic about them right now. Joe Burrow, same thing. They can lead an organization, make the organization believe, and every day everybody's like, did you hear what he said?


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[Assistant] He taught me this. Oh my gosh, what a throw. I mean, they're all in awe, right? Which is like, one of the reasons I go, uhm, thank you for proving my point that Aaron Rodgers should be more aggressive because you all see these throws he's making and they're all going, nobody can make that throw. This is unbelievable. And I want to go, I know he can do all this. He's got to do it, right? But they're, they're in awe of that.


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[Assistant] The release, the laser, the wha- how do you see that? How did he pinpoint it there? And then they're amazed in the...


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[Assistant] Meeting room, and then the amazement of so many of the guys being in amazement that they're on the field with Aaron Rodgers. It's hilarious.


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[Assistant] I mean, McCole Hardman, I said this on PFT for you today, it was like he was five years old at Disney World and he met Mickey Mouse for the first time, like in the castle.


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[Assistant] Right? He was like, they're going through warm-ups and he's, oh, I've been watching you and, I mean, he's forgetting to warm up. He's just sitting there looking at Rogers like, you know, like a puppy dog.


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[Assistant] And now I'm out here with you. And this is unbelievable. And I'm going to be able to tell my kids that, I mean, I was with that guy. And it just, it shows you.


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[Assistant] Exactly. You know, and Mahomes is gonna hit that status as well for other young guys when he's in year 12 or 14 of his career, right? But yea, these guys grew up with him. And what it is too, is you see, Roger's talent is undeniable.


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[Assistant] I don't sit here for the last 10 years and go, it's the quickest release and the strongest arm and all those things I've talked about with him that you've ever seen in the history of football, right? You've heard me say, like I said this on the pregame show the other night, your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback is Aaron Rodgers.


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[Assistant] I mean, I don't think I'm speaking out of turn. Josh Allen, Mahomes, Joe Burrow, they all told me that. I always ask guys that. You know that. There was always, you know, there's things he does on the football field.


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[Assistant] Ex-quarterbacks or players in the NFL or quarterbacks right now go...


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[Assistant] He makes that look easy and that ain't easy to do what he's doing there. That's special.


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[Assistant] You know, and I go back to my Bleacher Report days where I used to interview players a lot and do that. If I had 50 players, 49 of them before I could even finish the question, who's the best player you ever played against, it was always Aaron Rodgers. I got Vince Wolfark who bucked the trend and said Tom Brady, right? I was the only one that ever answered that.


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[Assistant] Right, I feel like it swayed a little bit maybe the last few years. Once Brady won that Bucs championship, it took like his luster up and the Rodgers luster down. But this was the greatest 30 minutes of not only football watch, you're gonna love it.


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[Assistant] Right? It's gonna, it's gonna even make the hair stand up on your back of your neck a little bit. It's kinda got that effect.


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[Assistant] And it's the greatest 30 minutes of positive pub that Aaron Rodgers has received since he won the Super Bowl. Right? Where everybody's trying to pick him apart and all that. And you know, and you're just seeing an organization that hasn't had it. They're not spoiled by it like Green Bay. They're embracing it.