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[Assistant] Convincingly, I'm going to go 28 to 17. I am. You know, I worry about that Brown's defense too. And this Colts offense is balanced. They have people to block Miles Garrett and I am, I think the Colts are turning into one of those teams to say, watch out for, I think they're one of the better teams in football. This will be my bet. One of my best bets this week. I can promise you that.


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[Assistant] No, that is, I got that in Tampa Bay and I've seen Rod Marinelli and that coaching staff do that. That is what it's all about. And if you don't, it's like the 49ers, which is the same, you know, scheme and everything. It's like, if you don't run through the wall, when I say run through the wall, we'll find somebody else.


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[Assistant] So you're gonna run through the wall? Yes, coach! Arrrr! And that's how they play. They play like their butts are on fire every week. What's that sound they make? Arrrr! Arrrr! Arrrr! Alright, here we go.


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[Assistant] Giants at Cowboys. Giants are offensively challenged. Defense can be a pain in the butt. Cowboys, favored by 9.5, have no defense at all. Over under 54. It's in Dallas, Mike. Go ahead.


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[Assistant] Well, yeaah, it will be. I mean, the defense is the big question. I mean, I don't have any doubt like you where the offense is going to move the ball, uh, they're going to make plays. It's a Giants defense that is not great, uh,


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[Assistant] They can give me a pain in the butt if you're a run-first type football team.


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[Assistant] But this is not a run-first type football team. And that, and then they don't have a great pass rusher either. That worries me. When you're playing the Dallas Cowboys who, you know, are as talented as anybody there is in football when it comes to passing the ball.


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[Assistant] And, you know, the big thing is, I do think the Giants will be able to move the ball better than they have against this crappy Cowboys defense, but I still just don't know if they'll be able to do enough there. I mean, I'm not buying into that. So I'm going Cowboys 31-21, I got them covering the spread and everything like that.


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[Assistant] You know, just, I, I just, I got to see that defense have a few stops before I can say they're going to just blow some team away and do all of that. Uh, I wouldn't be shocked if yours 38 20 was right either, but I certainly see the Cowboys winning the football game kind of convincingly like you do. All right.


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[Assistant] Broncos, Patriots, we hope they play. It seems like they're going to. I don't know. We're going to find out probably later today on ProFootballTalk.com if you want to find any of the new information that's out there. Visit there. There'll be some good copy paste, copy paste, snarky comment information to be read. Now,


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[Assistant] Patriots, uh, it's over under at 48 and a half. Patriots favored by eight.


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[Assistant] I'm with, I'm doing the same thing. I'm gonna go bruh, uh, Pat Patrons 2714. You know, even without Stefan Gilmore, this'll still be one of the best secondaries Denver faces all year long.


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[Assistant] And yeah, it's not great on offense and we know they got injuries over there on Denver's offense and things like that too. So I look at that and then, Hey, the Patriots, I expect it to be Jared Stidham if Cam Newton can't play.


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[Assistant] And the Broncos defense is nothing to write home about either right now. And the Patriots run game is arguably the best run game in football. So, uh, with that, I don't care who plays quarterback. I'm still going to M27-14. And now you got to take us to break, big guy.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I will say yes and yes to that answer. Okay, or that question. And sorry Mike Zimmer, you will not be getting your first win against the Seattle Seahawks this weekend. That's not happening. Yeaah. I mean, not a great pass rush.


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[Assistant] You know, nothing great on the Vikings defensive side of the ball against...


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[Assistant] The best on fire quarterback in the game right now with a passing attack that's scary and a team that can still run the ball.


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[Assistant] So, they can do it all on offense. That's not good. Now, I do think the Vikings will move the ball on, on Seattle, too. There's, there's no question. I just don't have as much faith as them to consistently keep up and do that. Now, Seattle is gonna have to respect that run game. It is gonna leave one-on-ones with Jefferson and Thielen on the outside, and we know Seattle's not very good at covering on the outside.


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[Assistant] Shoot out, the defense will make one or two plays to give them the advantage to win that shoot out, and that'll be that.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I can't make it a best bet. Not, not, I'm with you there too. Just cause like what you just said. Yeah, I'm not gonna pick that Seattle defense to win anything more by more than seven. I mean...


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[Assistant] They could be up by 17 with 3 minutes left and the game still ended up being a 3 score, uh, 3 point game. So, I'm not, I'm with you there. Alright. Monday night, it's the Battle of Breeze, baby. It's the Chargers, it's the Saints. Might be the last time Drew Brees plays the Chargers. I would bet yes, because that'll be 4 years from now when they do it again.


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[Assistant] Saints favored by 8, over under at 50 and a half. Saints got it on track this week. Mike, do they keep it going?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think the same, yeah, you said it, they're clearly the better football team.


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[Assistant] The, the Chargers defense showed that, you know, you can make plays on it. And this, this Saints offense, I think found its way a little last week, especially because they played through the run game. You know, they're one of those teams, again, I just look at them and go,


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[Assistant] No, it's one of the five best old lines in football. That damn tailback's really good. That's the best thing they got going on their offense. Run the ball and then you'll see Drew Brees hit the 15 and 20 yard completions that you saw him hit last week that make their offense more dangerous. And the other thing is that it's just the opposite with the, like the Chargers can't run the ball at all. I mean, they're, they have to rely on Justin Herbert to carry the team.


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[Assistant] You know, I thought they were gonna run the ball and play defense and control the clock. Well, it's, it's nice to talk about playing that way, but you gotta be able to run the ball, and they can't.


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[Assistant] So, you know, I'm going, uh, Saints 27-17 to win the football game too. Yeah, it might be more than that, but I feel clear, you know, clear that the Saints win this and win it, you know, somewhat easy or convincingly.


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[Assistant] All right, well, I said it. I mean, my bet of the week, if I had to pick one, is gonna be the Indianapolis Colts. That's the one I'm going with. Only favored by one and a half. I think it's a bad matchup for the Browns. I think the Colts are a...


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[Assistant] A really well-rounded football team in all areas and it's the best defense in football. I'm going Colts 28 17 and that's my bet. First best bet of the week. The one I liked the most.


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[Assistant] Yeah, get that ball out. But I got the Ravens winning 34-17. I do think the Bengals hang around. I just think there's too much on that Ravens side for the Bengals to hang around too long.


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[Assistant] I've had a hard time with my third one. You know, full transparency. I'm not going to lie. Thought about the football team covering that spread against the Rams. I worry about that a little. Thought about the Viking Seahawks over, but I'm going to go to tonight.


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[Assistant] I'm going on the under tonight. You know, that football game there. I just think this will be a little bit more of a defensive struggle than what, you know, uh, you know, the, the, the experts in Vegas think, uh, 44 and a half. I think this is a 20 to 16 game points are at a premium. I'm going to go with the under.


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[Assistant] Yo yo, what's up? C'mon man, subscribe on YouTube to Chris Simms Unbuttoned Podcast. I need you, please hit the subscribe button, please!


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[Assistant] Hi, I'm Mike Tirico and thanks for watching. Make sure to hit subscribe for the latest news and highlights from NBC Sports.


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[Assistant] And Chris Sims, unbuttoned, and we are ready to go with the Joint Megapix Podcast.


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[Assistant] All games, straight up, against the spread, best bets. Now, let's gloss over this next part, please, shall we? I know they're gonna put up the graphic, I don't want it to be up for very long, I don't wanna wallow in my own crappy performance from last week, I am embarrassed, I am ashamed.


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[Assistant] That I was 0-3 in best bets. That bothers me more than anything else. Because the rest of the stuff, we check the boxes, Chris. We have to make the picks. Best bets are the ones we choose. And man, I chose wrong last week.


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[Assistant] Earlier today on PFT Live, the possibility that the 49ers may have a little surprise for the Packers, the possibility that the Packers will be flat because every time they play in California under Matlab floor, they are flat.


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[Assistant] I just think the circumstances this time around line up in favor of the Packers. They're coming off of a game where they got caught flat footed. They're far less likely to get sucker punched again, especially against an overmatched team. I'll go 27-17 Green Bay Packers, win the game, cover the spread.


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[Assistant] Just because of the way the planets are lining up here. If the Packers had won on Sunday, I may be tempted to pick an upset here.


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[Assistant] But given that the Packers are already on high alert, I think they come out, they take care of business, they right the ship, until the next time they step into a pothole.


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[Assistant] It is lackadaisical, but I'll give you, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. We only trigger the Sims-isms during PFT Live.


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[Assistant] Four and four, maybe five and three. They've had games that they've lost that they should have won. They should have beaten the Lions, but for the Todd Gurley boneheaded fall into the end zone when he should have gone down with a one, they should be 3-0 under Raheem Morris.


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[Assistant] The Broncos pulled a rabbit out of their hat or some other orifice last Sunday against the LA Chargers came back from that big deficit. I think the Falcons with the extra time to get ready, the motivation to try to finish strong and the awareness that after this game,


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[Assistant] The schedule gets difficult for the Falcons. They still play the Saints twice. They still play the Buccaneers twice. They still play the Chiefs, Chris. They've got some tough games coming up, so if they want to win enough,


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[Assistant] To help parlay Raheem Morris' audition into a permanent gig, they need this one.


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[Assistant] I like the Falcons 30 to 23. No trades were made. The team is together. They're gonna finish it strong and who knows what's gonna happen.


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[Assistant] After their bye, and I believe their bye is next week, so finish strong into the bye, worry about those games against the Saints and the Bucs and the Chiefs later, but get a win now, and I think they will. 30 to 23, I think the extra days after last Thursday night help. I just think the Broncos


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[Assistant] The bro- I'm not gonna say they got lucky, but they were playing the AFC's version of the Falcons. The team that just loves to blow leads.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I agree with you completely, and, and, uh, uh, I think everyone has had a hard time figuring out who the Broncos are, including the Broncos. One last point about this game. They've had COVID issues this week. They've had COVID issues for the past few weeks. It's affected coaches more than players, and GM John Elway has it now.


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[Assistant] But that's another thing. I think they had a day where they didn't practice this week. These are things that I think will accumulate and make it harder for them to go to Atlanta and win or stay within the four point spread.


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[Assistant] And Buffalo fans, here's what's gonna happen. They're gonna get mad at us for not picking them. You know, and here's the reason.


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[Assistant] The Bills haven't been the same team the last four weeks. They got the crap kicked out of them by the Titans, I almost said the other word. Then they lost convincingly to the Chiefs. Then they, they screwed around, almost said a different word there as well, with the Jets.


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[Assistant] And then they, they gave the Patriots an opening to beat them. I don't believe in the Bills against an elite team. And the one thing about the Seahawks, and DK Metcalf told me this, after one of their early season wins when they crossed the country. Right.


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[Assistant] They love playing in the one o'clock eastern time window because, and this is weird that teams would do this with elite franchises, but these east coast teams think they have an edge.


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[Assistant] They love it, and I think that the Seahawks will win. I got 30 to 20, so Seahawks win, they cover the spread. I think with Jamal Adams back, the defense will be better, the defense already was better last week. And I just don't think anybody's stopping that offense in Seattle. Especially now that they realize they just need to feed DK Metcalf.


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[Assistant] Yeah, the Colts have a staff member who tested positive. They're still practicing on Thursday, but they're doing their meetings virtually. The contact tracing will or won't disclose additional individuals who have to go onto the COVID-19 reserve list as a precaution. That's the new twist in all this. That's that.


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[Assistant] The Ravens recovered well and responded well after they lost to the Chiefs in Week 3, I think it was. Yes, it was Week 3. Right. They outplayed the Steelers. They go back and look at that film, and I think they're gonna say, we just need to do what we did. They have to iron out a few things, and it's not like they're going against a slouch of a defense.


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[Assistant] I think the Ravens should have confidence coming out of that game. They need to find the silver lining and they need to keep winning because the Steelers, we pointed this out on Monday, have a fairly easy run until the rematch on Thanksgiving night three weeks from today.


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[Assistant] The Ravens have a tougher stretch. They have to keep winning, so that game in Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving night will allow them to pull a little closer to a tie.


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[Assistant] That's what they need to do and I think they will. Two points, I'm flagging this one for a best bet.


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[Assistant] Cause, cause this is one where I feel pretty good about the Ravens winning, and I'm willing to take the chance it's gonna be a two point or a one point game. Yeah, it's at least gonna be three, 20 to 17 or something like that. The score I've picked is 27-20, but either way I like the Ravens and I like them to cover.


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[Assistant] I don't care. This is not good for the Jaguars. Both teams had two weeks to get ready so there's no advantage there. But the Jaguars are the ultimate get your crap together team. The team you want to play when you need a win. Look all the way back to week two.


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[Assistant] When they need that win. And I think the Texans desperately need a win now. Romeo Crenel needs to get the ship righted again. And the one win so far this year for the Texans has come against the Jaguars. I think with Deshaun Watson. I mean it's that simple. Sometimes there's high level analysis, sometimes there isn't. Deshaun Watson,


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[Assistant] Jake Luton. Jake Luton. Right. Luke Jayton. Whatever it is. Sorry, Luke or Jake, whatever it is, you're not Deshaun Watson, and I think that's the difference.


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[Assistant] Because the Chiefs, I think, learned the hard way against the Raiders that they can't take anyone lightly.


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[Assistant] They won't take the Panthers lightly. The Panthers have done enough good things this year that Andy Reid can get the Chiefs full attention. Teddy Bridgewater's a little banged up. He was on the injury report yesterday with a neck problem, undoubtedly from the cheap shot that he took.


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[Assistant] Last week from Charles Harris against the Atlanta Falcons, but he fully participated in practice. The X-Factor here, and the thing that is keeping me, I believe, ultimately from making this a best bet,


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[Assistant] I'll give him the ten and a half. I'm, I'm picking my score.


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[Assistant] Regardless of whether or not they have McCaffrey, because I think the Chiefs are fully focused, 34-17, I'm just not comfortable making that a best bet.


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[Assistant] The annulment papers have been lost in the mail. Oh yea, they've been lost? Yea, okay.


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[Assistant] You know, I've been following the NFL for 50 years, and I know the circumstances here, I know the stakes here, the Vikings at 2 and 5, the Lions at 3 and 4, the loser of this game, for all practical purposes, is done.


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[Assistant] Even if they should expand to eight teams, and they will expand to eight teams per conference if only one game is lost in this regular season. There's a chance it will be. But either way, eight teams, seven teams, six teams. The loser of this game is done.


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[Assistant] I think the Vikings at home, even without fans there, they understand what they're facing. And even though they have a history of chasing a big win,


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[Assistant] Or a deflating loss with a bad performance. I think that Mike Zimmer has the full attention of this team. Let Dalvin Cook


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[Assistant] They've got four corners on the injury report. Three of them didn't practice yesterday. Matthew Stafford can't show up until Sunday for the Lions because he's on the COVID-19 reserve list. I just like the Vikings in this one. 31-21.


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[Assistant] The four points surprises me. I think it should be more like five or six. I like the Vikings to hold serve at home.


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[Assistant] This is one of their easier games so far of the year. They have played teams like the Titans and the Seahawks and most recently the Packers in Green Bay and beat them. I think the Vikings really are better. You know, when Kyle Rudolph told me last week at one and five, the Vikings are a lot better than that. I thought that's what you have to say, but he proved it. They proved it on Sunday. I got to give them the benefit of the doubt this weekend.


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[Assistant] I don't think it will be either. I think the Bears emptied the tank last week against the Saints, and that may have broken the Bears mentally. You know, when you go toe to toe with a team like that,


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[Assistant] And you try to follow a very bad performance on Sunday Night Football where your offense did nothing while they scored three points but the defense scored seven for the Bears that night and Matt Nagy was beside himself. I feel like that's the kind of game where


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[Assistant] It takes you a while to get it back, and I think that they, they accept it some level, and they're not gonna admit it, they're never gonna admit it. That's not what you do if you have any pride in what you do, but the Titans...


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[Assistant] Because they've lost two in a row. Because they stepped into the bear trap last week, allowing one loss to become two, as you like to say, and it's right on point.


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[Assistant] You've got two teams that are desperate. You've got one team that's more talented. That's the team I'm gonna go with. So I like the Titans to win this one. I'm gonna go 28-20. Tennessee over the Bears. And that means Titans win and Titans cover and Titans get to 6-2.


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[Assistant] Washington football team went into the bye week with that big win over the Cowboys.


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[Assistant] You throw on top of it Ron Rivera completing his cancer treatments, the lift that gives to the organization. Yeah, good one. And, and, and they believe, they believe they can win the division. That's what Ron Rivera's been telling them. 2014 Panthers, 7-8-1, won the NFC South, won a playoff game and gave the Seahawks everything they could handle.


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[Assistant] That has become the mantra, and that is the thing that I think keeps carrying them, and the fact that they beat the Eagles, they gotta feel pretty good about what they can do. Alright, let's take a break. 4PM Eastern Games.


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[Assistant] Have you heard it's a big sports weekend on NBC? You know I haven't? You're hearing now. Oh. You're hearing it now. Breeders' Cup World Championship.


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[Assistant] Clemson vs Notre Dame. Hmm. NASCAR Cup Series Championship and then South American Football. Seven Eastern Football Night in America. We will be there for that one and we'll be watching everything else.


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[Assistant] Alright, before the Saints and the Bucks get together, there will be a handful, a small handful this week, a large handful next week of 4pm Eastern games, 4.05, 4.25, they know who we mean. Uh, take us through the late afternoon kickoffs.


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[Assistant] You know, I wish there would be fans at this game for a variety of reasons, but one of which is...


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[Assistant] And you know, it's funny because last year when the Chargers are playing in a 30,000 seat stadium, they're like, well, when they have a bigger stadium, there'll be more Chargers fans. No, it's going to be the same percentage, which is going to make it even worse in their new stadium. And the one team that they have to worry about every year is the Raiders coming to town.


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[Assistant] I think the Raiders, and I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt. I was impressed by what they did last week in Cleveland, and I think they're starting to find their footing, and they're starting to make their move, and they've recovered from getting their asses kicked by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I thought that would contribute to a loss last weekend, frankly.


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[Assistant] I look at this one and I see the Chargers as one point favorites and I'm thinking, really? Really? I think the Raiders are the better team. The record reflects it. I know the Chargers should have won far more of their games than they have, but when you can't hold 17 point leads, at some point, you snap. And I just wonder whether or not the Chargers are snapping?


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[Assistant] And I wonder whether or not the Raiders are building. So I'm gonna go Raiders 27-24. Don't need to pick a blowout.


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[Assistant] I'm getting one point already. I like the Raiders to win straight up, so that's my score, and that's in my consideration for a best bet.


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[Assistant] You know, and I mentioned last segment that this is the first time, and I saw this tweet. It was credited to the Elias Sports Bureau. I didn't know they tracked statistics like this, but in more than 20 years, minimum, the first time that two quarterbacks who wear number one


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[Assistant] ...are facing each other in Kyler Murray and Tua Tonga Vaialoa. So, it doesn't mean anything to the game, it's just...


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[Assistant] Well, not a lot of quarterbacks have worn number one, which is kind of amazing. You gotta have some cojones to wear number one. You gotta have some self-confidence in yourself to wear number one, Chris, because you're telling the world I'm number one.


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[Assistant] And Kyle and Murray is, two has still gotta prove it.


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[Assistant] And look, the Cardinals have had two weeks to get ready for this one. I think there's an edge there. I think the Cardinals are realizing that they're not the team that somehow blew back to back games against the Lions and the Panthers. They're better than that.


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[Assistant] They just dismantled the Dallas Cowboys. They went toe to toe with the Seahawks. 69 minutes and 45 seconds later they got the victory. Came back from the, the deficit in the fourth quarter, the 10 point deficit.


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[Assistant] I know Miami went out west earlier this year and obliterated the 49ers, but this time around, I like the Cardinals. I'm not ready to write off Miami.


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[Assistant] Did with the lions, what maybe Brian Flores will do, they've got that common DNA back to New England, but I still think Kyler Murray is too good, too a tongue of Iloha, unproven.


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[Assistant] That I like the Cardinals and I like Kyler and I want to see them compete for the NFC West Championship. I admit that bias in my selection. I tried to set it aside, but I acknowledge that it's there.


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[Assistant] To fall into a trap with this one. They're gonna be as fired up as if they were playing the Chiefs this weekend. I feel badly for the Cowboys. It's gonna be ugly. 30 to 13.


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[Assistant] Quick break, primetime games when we continue, including the best game of the week.


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[Assistant] And not the best game of the week. For Sunday night and Monday night. PFTPM and Chris Sims on button. Continue right after this.


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[Assistant] Taking a look at the primetime games now, Christopher, before we get to it though, may I remind you, if you didn't already know, the odds are provided by Points Bet Sportsbook, the official.


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[Assistant] Sports betting partner of NBC Sports. And with that, I ask you to take us through the two primetime games, not Thursday night. The big primetime games this week, sort of. Sunday night, huge. Monday night, eh.


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[Assistant] It's funny because right before week one, I picked the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl, but the Saints to beat the Buccaneers in week one. Yeah. Because I knew it was going to take time. Sure. And it did take time. And you know what? Here we are. Half a season later, the Bucs are six and two. The Bucs are looking good. Antonio Brown.


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[Assistant] Has joined the party. Rob Gronkowski is no longer.


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[Assistant] Running around in the drizzle of maple syrup, Mike Evans is healthy, Chris Godwin may be back, and here's the thing though.


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[Assistant] The Saints are getting Emmanuel Sanders back from a couple of games that he missed due to having COVID-19. Michael Thomas, who hasn't played since week one, all indications are he'll be back. I got 30 to 27. And this is my...


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[Assistant] Rooting interest in being entertained by a great game. I don't want it to be.


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[Assistant] Anything more than a four and a half point spread. I want it to be a one score game. I want it to be close. I want it to be exciting. I want to will it. I want to speak it into existence.


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[Assistant] 30-27, Buccaneers beat the Saints, moved to 7-2, and move into control of the NFC South. It should be a great game. I don't know how the Saints are going to slow down that offense.


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[Assistant] It's going to be fascinating to watch what Dennis Allen comes up with because Sean Payton basically delegates the entire defense to him. So that's what I'm picking and I'm hoping that that's what we get.


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[Assistant] Not when they're telling us that we don't have a whole lot of time left. That's what saves you from being picked apart by me.


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[Assistant] And this is the butt fumble reunion game. What is it? Eight years to the month since the notorious moment at the same stadium. I like the coincidence. I like the parallel. Tom Brady was just there last Monday night with his new team against the Giants. Now, Bill Belichick goes there with his current team against the Jets.


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[Assistant] And the excuse-making from Bill Belichick, I think it's gonna filter into the locker room, and I think if they were facing any team other than the Jets, I'd be tempted to pick the Patriots to lose their fifth in a row. And originally,


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[Assistant] 28-17 Patriots over the Jets. I don't know how good I feel about the Patriots covering. I thought about splitting the baby here and saying Patriots win, Jets cover, but I'll go 28-17 Patriots win.


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[Assistant] And if they do win, the question then will become whether we see a coaching change for the Jets the next day because they will enter their bye week at 0 and 9. Alright, that's all 14 of the games for this weekend. When we return...


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[Assistant] Our chance to redeem ourselves for a one and five combined best bets debacle last week. Our best three picks this week and you may just want to go ahead and do the opposite.


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[Assistant] Alright, long way to go and short time to get there as we wrap up this edition of PFTPM and Chris Sims on Button. Best bets time. Chris, let's get rolling. Okay, alright, here we go.


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[Assistant] Alright, I'm gonna go Vikings and I'm gonna throw it back to you because unlike you, I'm aware that we're running out of time.


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[Assistant] I'm going with the Raiders as well. I think they're gonna win the football game and I can't believe the Chargers are favored by one. You're up next. What was your first one, the Vikings? The Vikings, giving four to the Lions. Oh man, horrible.


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[Assistant] I'd actually feel better for the Cowboys if you were playing quarterback this weekend. I would too. We'd lose by 40 instead of 45.


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[Assistant] And I just, look, two, eh, two, who cares? Of course, I've said that before, and then the team wins by one, which probably is what's gonna happen. But come on, Ravens, win by three, and, and, uh, help me avoid going 0 and 3 again.


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[Assistant] That's it. We're out of time. PFTPM. Chris Inns on button. We do it every Thursday during football season, which means we'll do it again next week. Enjoy the games.


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[Assistant] We'll see you Friday for PFT Live. We'll see you next week for the joint podcast production. See ya.


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[Assistant] I was thinking about that over the last few months, how much has come out about my personal life.


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[Assistant] Using a bidet out there. Showering only when I leave the house out there.


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[Assistant] Brushing my teeth once a week? Out there. Once a day though, you were saying.


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[Assistant] Every once in a while. Not as much as I used to do. Alright, good. I've nipped that in the bud a little bit.


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[Assistant] If you're listening, let me describe the shirt for those who are listening. Black shirt, but the collar has like white around it. And the sleeves, I've got them rolled up, which is really hip now. Super in. And those are white as well.


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[Assistant] No. Breaking the rules is now in. It's like, whatever, like, colors that don't go together, you know, if you break the rules, that is actually happening.


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[Assistant] You wouldn't know it by that lengthy intro, but we do actually have a lot to talk about.


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[Assistant] So we're going through the answer key today. The answer key. This is the answer key. This is the answer key. You are going to go through every division. Yep. We, we went through the over-unders and we kind of got your, your thoughts on the teams. You got a little bit of a read on how you think these teams will finish. We're actually going to make you pick them.


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[Assistant] Okay, alright, alright. A little tease of a team in the future here. Maybe you can figure out which one that is. So before we get to 2020, we gotta check our work.


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[Assistant] Because if we're gonna call ourselves the answer key, we gotta make sure that we live up to that. Uhm, and so last year, let's take a look at this.


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[Assistant] If you're looking, it wasn't a bad year. There were some hits here. Uh, so if you're watching on YouTube right here, here is, uh, the bracket last year. You played it all the way down to the Super Bowl of Eagles, who were, they were a playoff team. And if Carson Wentz hadn't gotten hurt, who knows what could have happened, uh, against the Chiefs. And so you had that right.


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[Assistant] So those, you know, those are the Nick Foles injury, although I don't know if they're a playoff team, even if Nick Foles plays, but, you know, Big Ben getting hurt.


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[Assistant] Every time half of a team dies, they're going to have a hard time making the Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] So here it is, so you got the Eagles to make the playoffs though, so you were right there, you got Seattle, you got New Orleans, Carolina didn't make it, you had them in, Chicago didn't make it, you had them in, Dallas didn't make it, although they almost did, you had them in, AFC, you hit on New England, you hit on the Chiefs, you hit on Baltimore,


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[Assistant] You missed on Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Cleveland right there. But here in your defense, Chris, so Pete did some digging. Wow, thank you. Uh, he wanted to defend you.


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[Assistant] Vegas of the 12 teams in the playoffs, how many do you think they got right?


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[Assistant] You know what, you're elite at telling us why something happened. You know, why a team was able to be another team.


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[Assistant] Well, let's try to turn it around this year. So what we're gonna do is we're gonna go through your answer key. We're gonna give your reasons here. I'm gonna hold mine till the end. I might drop a few nuggets on where I might disagree with you. Good, please do. You know, just to keep you on your toes. Please do. But I'm gonna wait till the end to give you mine. So we'll just focus on your outlook. Can I say one thing here?


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[Assistant] You know what's so hard about it too? It all seems to make so much sense when you're just looking at it and looking at the favorites. You're like, yeah, they're going to make the playoffs, but every year it's, there's surprises and sometimes it's half of the playoff field. That's a surprise.


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[Assistant] Uhm, so we'll try to, you know, indicate those teams that, you know, think that could have a chance even if you're not picking them to make the playoffs. Because like your wide receiver rankings, you think like there were 20 top 10 wide receivers, there are probably 23 good teams in the NFL.


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[Assistant] So let's start with the, let's start with the AFC East. AFC East, a division that has been won by New England each of the last 11 seasons. 16 of the last 17, last time a team that was not New England won the division, was?


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[Assistant] I'm just surprised that I remembered the team that it was, and you remember all the plays from it.


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[Assistant] Uhm, so, last time Buffalo won the division.


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[Assistant] 1995. The Colts have won the division more recently than the Buffalo Bills. How about that?


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[Assistant] Up until this last week, I would have said the bills, but I've heard you talk up New England here lately, and so now it's a 50-50 toss-up for me.


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[Assistant] So, Bills haven't won the division in a while, but they have been a wild card team out of the division last year in 2017 as well. Alright, so, in New England,


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[Assistant] This is where I'll give a little nugget of where I'm leaning right now. Yeah, sure.


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[Assistant] And you're like, no. At some point, it drops off. There's gonna be that year where it just doesn't happen anymore.


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[Assistant] And I think people are using the same philosophy with New England. It's like they're gonna figure out a way, because they always have figured out a way to do it. But, you know, you lose Tom Brady, maybe that's not the biggest thing ever.


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[Assistant] But, you lose eight players, you lose some guys on the defensive side, you lost some in free agency, at a certain point you've just lost too much, and even Bill Belichick, as great as he is, can't get the team into the playoff.


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[Assistant] So it is of all the odds, and we're getting our odds from Points Bet, the new official sports betting partner of NBC Sports.


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[Assistant] Uhm, it is the closest between the top two. You got Bills plus 110, you got Patriots plus 135. Right.


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[Assistant] Or they win the coin flip if it goes down that far. So, uh, Josh Allen was born six months after the Bills last division title. You say they get it this year. Are we making you pick the rest of the division too? Where are the Dolphins and Jets?


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[Assistant] I'll give you, I'll give you a little nugget here. I am not, I am not.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna be fast-forwarding to the end right now. Okay, AFC North. We got two playoff teams in the AFC. Two of the seven are ready. Okay. Interesting. We got, uh, Ravens. They opened.


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[Assistant] March is a significant favorite, and then not much has changed since then.


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[Assistant] Although the Steelers' odds have improved slightly as the offseason has gone on. Uh, Browns have gotten slightly worse as the offseason has gone on. And the Bengals are far behind everyone else. Seems like a one-team race in the AFC North here.


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[Assistant] Heavy favorite, negative 239 according to points bet, so that is odds on favorite. Uhm, what about the Steelers though?


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[Assistant] Big bend back, that defense was elite last year.


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[Assistant] I'll throw another tease out there. You mentioned Chase Claypool. We're going to go through our MVPs, offensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, all those awards coming up here. Chris is rookie of the year is going to be Chase Claypool. I thought about him. It's not going to be, but I thought about him.


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[Assistant] Well Baker, I mean Baker had a rough year last year. He did. You don't know if that's him or if first year.


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[Assistant] And the Bengals will have a fun offense to watch, and a fun defense for other teams to play against.


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[Assistant] This is an interesting one. Houston started the offseason as the favorite.


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[Assistant] By the end of the offseason, they're currently the third choice.


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[Assistant] It's the opposite for the Colt. Started the offseason as the third choice.


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[Assistant] Now they're the favorites and the Titans have stayed the second choice, but they're, they've improved a bit here. Uhm, but it's still, it's still really close. What are they at right now? So it's Colts plus 115, Titans plus 170, Texans plus 355. So they're not a, you know, not a close third. Uhm, so a lot of people down on Houston. I know. A team that's won the division six of the last nine years.


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[Assistant] The Titans have not won the division since 2008. They now have Jadevian Clowney.


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[Assistant] Makes them better. It does. So Houston's not your division winner. Are the Titans. They are not. They are not.


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[Assistant] Yeaah, there's a chance that Philip Rivers can make Frank Reich better, right? It can be mutually beneficial. It's not just like, okay, now that Philip is with Frank, Philip is going to be better. It's like both of them can up their game.


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[Assistant] Well, it'll be really interesting to see if I agree with you later on. Alright, we're going to the AFC West. Uh, so one team.


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[Assistant] One team out of the AFC West. Ooh, this should be difficult. They're Raiders. So the Chiefs started the offseason as heavy favorites and end as heavy favorite. In fact, they're the heaviest favorite in all of the NFL to win the division title this year. Negative 455 and I'm guessing they're your team.


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[Assistant] Well, so that was, that was the question I was gonna ask. So the Ravens and Chiefs, according to points bet, are tied.


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[Assistant] So I'm kind of surprised the second choice, uhm, even though I've talked up the roster for the Chargers, I gave him a top five roster. I, I getcha.


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[Assistant] I know. For me though, the Chargers, I mean the Durham and James injury is pretty big for that. Hurts, right. That's pretty big for them. Right. Still got a lot of play, you got Joey Bosa on defense, you got playmakers, quarterbacks at question, right? Yeah. Tyler Taylor, even though I like him a lot.


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[Assistant] How close were any of the other teams, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, to make it?


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[Assistant] Cool. So the Texans are your last team. Yep. So that's the AFC.


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[Assistant] Let's go over to the NFC. We'll start with the NFC East. Eagles, they open the offseason as slight favorites.


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[Assistant] Plus 125 over the cowboys who were at plus 140. Cowboys took a big leap by the end of May.


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[Assistant] Had a good draft, some eagles got hurt.


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[Assistant] So it's pretty close at the top, but the Cowboys are the slight favorite. How do you see it?


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[Assistant] But no team has won this division in back to back years since the Eagles won four in a row in the early 2000s.


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[Assistant] So in the last decade, Eagles have won it four times, Cowboys three, Washington two.


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[Assistant] Giants won. So the Eagles not the division winner, but are they a playoff?


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[Assistant] One note about this division that I thought was kind of interesting is the Cowboys have not been a wild card team since 2006, so either division or bust for them here. Oh, gotcha. Since 2006. Just a true wild card, yeaah. Okay. They have not been the true wild card team in a while. Right. You don't think they'll have to worry about that. I don't.


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[Assistant] the division, but the Eagles are gonna make it in as the wild card team. Let's go to the NFC North.


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[Assistant] One through four. So right now, so the offseason began with the Packers and Vikings kind of co-favorites. Pretty much that way now, although points bet gives the slight edge to the Vikings. Packers just behind them. Lions third, plus 400, then the Bears at plus 500.


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[Assistant] Which aren't bad odds. If you look at some of these other odds, like, you know, chargers are plus 850.


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[Assistant] Uh, Browns are 490, Steelers 400, so it's not like they're bad.


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[Assistant] I think they might have done it as a favor to Nick Foles. Looking out for Nick Foles.


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[Assistant] Cuz now you're in a situation where Mitchell Trubisky struggles. Nick Foles can be the hero.


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[Assistant] Sure. As opposed to, you know, the year starts out and Nick Foles is struggling, then you gotta go back to Mitchell Tribute. I don't, I don't know.


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[Assistant] Logic either way there. Yours is, I mean, it's probably correct. Like they want to get out of the gates fast, right? So you want your best quarterback on the field right away.


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[Assistant] Alright, so elite defense, maybe an improved Mitchell Trubisky.


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[Assistant] So three different teams have won this division each of the last three years. Packers last year, Bears in 2018, Vikings in 2017.


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[Assistant] I know just from doing the show with you so many times, you're not, you're not high on the Vikings. You think they're good enough to be a playoff team?


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[Assistant] The last time the Lions won the division, 1993, you say they're not gonna do it. They were in the playoffs in 2016, you say they're not gonna do that either.


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[Assistant] Don't talk down Jeff Akut again. That depresses me when you do that.


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[Assistant] Uh, okay, so you got one team making the playoffs from the NFC North. That's the division winner, Green Bay Packers. Let's go to the NFC South. This one's fun. Offseason began with, uh, Saints heavy, heavy favorite. Minus 400.


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[Assistant] Tampa Bay after signing Tom Brady. They got a nice little bump with Gronk as well. That defense is pretty good.


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[Assistant] They're plus 160 right now. Saints are minus 130. So that is tightened up significantly. Of course it is. In the NFC South with the Falcons, uh, and then the Panthers behind them. So how do you see it?


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[Assistant] You got the Buccaneers. Buccaneers are kind of like, you know, the Broncos, like you mentioned. Not in their makeup, you know, a lot of young guys for the Broncos, but I'm talking about that sexy team.


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[Assistant] Brown's last year, it's like we know historically they've been bad, but this year's different. This year we got Tom Brady, this year we got Rob Gronkowski, we got a good defense, so do you think it's different? Do they make the playoffs?


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[Assistant] You don't hate Tom Brady, you just strongly dislike him. Yea, that's right. Uh, so the Saints have won the division title three years in a row.


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[Assistant] Uh, you're not picking Tampa Bay to be a wild card team. You know, the Falcons were the last division winner.


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[Assistant] Uh, since the Saints won, so they won in 2016.


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[Assistant] Pete is noting here we actually haven't even published the podcast yet and somehow the Bucks and Brady fans have already, uh, discussed their hatred towards Chris on Twitter. So you've got ghosts. You're hearing the whispers from the fan base. They go, you used to love us, and now look at you.


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[Assistant] The only player I won't allow that for is Matt Stafford. Do not say anything bad about him. Anyone else you can be honest about.


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[Assistant] Uh, so okay, so we have one, two, three, four playoff teams. That's it. So you got three.


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[Assistant] You got three playoff teams in the NFC West. Is my math right? You are right.


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[Assistant] At, uh, the points bet favorite, negative 105 currently. We got the Seahawks, second choice at plus 200. We got Rams, third at plus 570. Not far behind though.


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[Assistant] The Cardinals with DeAndre Hopkins might get a long-term contract before the season starts. Yeah. Plus $7.75. So really, could be any one of these teams. You've got one team not making the playoffs from this division.


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[Assistant] Okay, so the 49ers made such a huge jump last year.


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[Assistant] You know, they were not just an average team, they've been a bad team for many, many years. Finally clicked all last year. Made this huge jump.


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[Assistant] Alright, 49ers, and so that means that Seattle and the Rams are your two wild card games. Yes, they are.


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[Assistant] And in Sean McVey you trust. I do. You talked about it in your over under.


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[Assistant] You said he got a bit predictable or other teams could figure him out a little bit last year. They threw the ball so many times.


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[Assistant] They got Cam Akers. They want to run the ball a little bit more this year. Could be a committee, but you believe that they're going to figure it out enough to get back to the. I do.


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[Assistant] Only one team has been a wild card team. Uh, Seattle's done it three times.


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[Assistant] So Seattle did a last year, 2018-2015, but you got, you got two wild card teams from this division.


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[Assistant] So you got three teams making the playoffs from the NFC West. You already said the 49ers are the overall number one seed in the NFC. How do you got the rest of the seeding going?


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[Assistant] Now there is a situation this year, different this year than any year before, where you only get one team with a buy, right? You just get the number one seed. Theoretically, you could have it.


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[Assistant] Like the two teams with the two best records could be in the same division. They might play in the second round.


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[Assistant] Right? Because you could have the best wild card team be the team. Like you have two, thirteen and three teams in one division. One wins the tiebreaker. One's the one, the other's the five.


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[Assistant] Right, you could get a situation where I was thinking like if, who knows, like it almost happened last year, right, in the division where Seattle and the 49ers almost were both, what, 12 and 4? You know, right at the end there?


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[Assistant] That's a situation where you could have, it could be weird.


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[Assistant] They did that 15 second thing where you just keep hitting, or 30 second just to get to the end. Right. Uh, you can stop, cause here's my picks for the playoff teams. Uh, AFC.


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[Assistant] I got the Bills, winning the division. Only team making the playoffs from the AFC East. Patriots, no. I kinda gave that one away earlier, right? Uh, Ravens, I got in. Steelers.


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[Assistant] Very similar couple, pained me not to put the chargers in there. That really pained me.


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[Assistant] Wow. No Eagles. Uh, North, I got two teams. Whoa, Detroit. I got the Packers and I got Detroit.


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[Assistant] I've got two teams from the south. I've got the Saints. And the Bucs. And I've got the Buccaneers. We knew that. Although I do share your concerns. Yea, okay. It's one of those things where we're all like, of course the Bucs, they've got Tom Brady, they've got Grime.


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[Assistant] Uh, and then the west I got two teams, I got 49ers, I got Ram.


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[Assistant] So, I thought the same things that you said. You know, I thought that, you know, they weren't a bad team last year. A lot of things went wrong last year, right? Really bad offensive line play. They got Aaron Donnell on the defensive side.


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[Assistant] Seattle, I think that, uh, Russell Wilson can't keep doing it forever. And, uh, the defense was worrying last year, even though they got Jamal Adams and have improved. Someone's gotta be left off. I left off the Vikings too.


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[Assistant] You mentioned some of those names we're gonna go through our MVP picks and all that stuff coming up after you get through your bracket. So you've got your bracket here. Got it.


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[Assistant] We've got it all lined up. So let's go through the games. Can you, uh, what games we got?


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[Assistant] Definitely gonna happen. Uh, the 4-5, you got Packers, you got Eagles in Green Bay.


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[Assistant] You're scared of them. You're scared. You think that Russell Wilson can keep it going.


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[Assistant] So you picked the Seahawks as a wild card team. You think over the 16 game regular season, the 49ers schedule works out for them play. They win the division. Yeaah. But come playoff time Russell Wilson. Yeaah. Russell Wilson steps up.


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[Assistant] Well yeaah, and the fact that the two seed, I mean, the Saints will have had to have played, you know, that'll be the third game. It's like they gotta play an extra game. Makes it harder for the number two seed.


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[Assistant] Uh, alright, so Seattle is going, a team that, I didn't even have them in the playoffs. This is totally divergent. Two people cannot be farther apart on this.


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[Assistant] Cool. The roster defense. Yeah. Even if Drew Brees goes down, I think they can figure out a way with Jamus or Taysom Hill.


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[Assistant] But, you had him in the championship game, I got the Saints going to the Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] And the AFC. Alright, the bye goes to the Chiefs, so they don't have to play this first round. You got the 2-7, you got Baltimore hosting Houston.


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[Assistant] I always say that, that always sucks as a fan when your team is like the, the team that is going to win the division. It's like, you know the regular season, but it's like all comes down to the playoffs. Like it doesn't even matter. It's like you play 16 games, you win the division. You're like, yeah, it doesn't matter unless you win in the postseason.


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[Assistant] Unenjoyable years for me. Although it will be very fun to watch that team. You got the 3-6, you got, ooh, so you got Buffalo hosting New England, round one.


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[Assistant] Alright, so that means in the divisional round you got the Chiefs hosting the sixth seed in the Patriots.


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[Assistant] You gave him a lot of credit as the year went on last year. Because you were all over him in the beginning of the year. You're like, take chances, you know, you're not, you're the bend but don't break. They were bending and breaking.


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[Assistant] Patriots. Yeah. Chiefs are that good. I mean, it's hard to argue with that.


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[Assistant] Uh, you bring Big Ben back last year, which even without him, and as bad as they were, Mason Rudolph, you got Duck Hotches, they were what, eight and eight? Yea. And they would have been the other playoff team, if, uh, if we were seven playoff teams last year.


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[Assistant] I say they get to the Super Bowl, ladies and gentlemen.


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[Assistant] He's agreeing with you. He's going Kansas City. He's going Kansas City. Yep. But his team from the NFC.


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[Assistant] So that, that's a good segue to, uhm, MVP pick.


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[Assistant] Aaron Rodgers, you look at the MVP odds that I was looking at on points bet over here.


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[Assistant] Plus 2500 right now. When's the last time you've gotten Aaron Rodgers to win MVP as the 10th choice in the NFL?


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[Assistant] Mahomes has won, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, that's an intriguing one at four, Deshaun, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Kyler Murray, then Aaron Rodgers, and then Cam Newton right after him.


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[Assistant] A game that never ends, it goes into overtime. Uh, you're gonna pick Patrick Mahomes though, I would bet.


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[Assistant] So what about offensive, let's do offensive player of the year.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna throw Derek Henry in there just to be different than you. Okay. I'm gonna say Derek Henry. Okay. I'm gonna say he carries the titans again. Another year, and you do it that many years in a row, you're like, okay, let's give him something.


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[Assistant] Let's go Offensive Rookie of the Year. So Offensive Rookie of the Year, oh I have the odds up here, hold on.


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[Assistant] I really, I mean this is, there are a lot in contention here when I was looking at it.


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[Assistant] So here's how the odds look from a site that I went to. Joe Burrow, first choice.


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[Assistant] Defensive Player of the Year. Defensive Player of the Year. Last year it was Stephon Gilmore. And I heard you do the show with Peter King today and Mike Florio. And you went through your whole draft.


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[Assistant] Khalil Mack in consideration, he's the third choice. The Watt brothers, TJ Watt, JJ Watt, right there. I'm gonna go with...


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[Assistant] Because I felt bad about not picking him for the playoffs. Joey Bosa, big contract, kicks it into another gear, he's financially


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[Assistant] Uh, Defensive Rookie of the Year. So I got the odds for this one too. This one's a little harder. That is.


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[Assistant] Uh, Chase Young seems to be the overwhelming favorite. Then you got Isaiah Simmons for, uh, Arizona. Arizona, the second choice. Don't know exactly how they'll play him. I don't, he seems like the versatile type, and I think if he went out there and did something like that, but it seems like Arizona wants to use him just as a linebacker. It seems like that. Patrick Queen.


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[Assistant] Buffalo is the fourth choice. Derrick Brown, Carolina, the defensive tackle. You got Jeff Okuda from Detroit. Right. What are you thinking?


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[Assistant] Last year it was John Harbaugh. It usually goes to the team that kind of makes that step, right? It's not a, it's an unexpected leap, even though...


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[Assistant] Okay, alright, interesting. I'm gonna go with Mike Tomlin. I'm gonna go, who's never won Coach of the Year.


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[Assistant] That's disrespectful to a great coach, a great communicator, all around good guy.


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[Assistant] I played football at William & Mary. I interviewed as a college coach. Yep. Back in the day. Yep. Uhm, so Mike Tomlin's my pick. Cool. So that's it. There's the answer key.


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[Assistant] Unfortunately, we've ruined it for everyone, right? It's like we've given the answers to the season. Don't even, don't even watch. You might not have to. You might not have to. Might as well not tune in. You can spend your time doing other things. I will tell you, I am so excited to watch football. Oh my gosh.


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[Assistant] Where, where did you go, where do you, self scout thyself.


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[Assistant] Well, that was what you did every time the Texans would go 16 and 0, if that was the criteria. But kinda like you did with this exercise, right? You were like, I'm just, you know, I'm not taking these teams that woulda, coulda, maybes, or maybe it's all gonna come together.


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[Assistant] I think it is, yeaah. I know you think it's gonna be closer than that. I do. Uhm, I think I did pretty well on this last year, if we go back and look at the tape. I'm gonna go...


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go Chiefs. Okay. I think they win it, but I think that Houston covers.


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[Assistant] Give me the, give me the rams. Give me the rams. They've been, you know, they're sharper than most other teams because they have had cameras follow them around. You know what I mean? Yeaah. It's like you kinda gotta bring your A-game. And they stopped shooting in the porta-potty, so they should be good.


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[Assistant] Well, it's not. And as I've said to you during the week, uh, my nickname is not Johnny the Shark, Johnny Vegas, or anything like that. But I think the rest of it would say, listen to my football info. I'm not always the best picker of the best bets, okay? There might be better


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[Assistant] People who understand what, how to bet and do all that. But one thing I do know is I know freakin' football. So I might be able to at least steer you in the right direction and we'll see where we go from there.


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[Assistant] Well, I'm gonna go with the Carolina Panthers in the football game. I don't necessarily feel really, really comfortable about it. I'll say that. I mean, again, they played just a few weeks ago. It was a close football game, certainly. But I think Carolina showed they're the better team on the field. But I do worry, listen, at the aspect of


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[Assistant] Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, you know, Calvin Ridley, who I believe is healthy, right? Uh, might be questionable or something like that.


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[Assistant] They're gonna move the ball. They're gonna make some plays on the offensive side of the ball. And the defense for the Falcons has not been as bad as of late. Alright, it's still not good, definitely not. But I'm gonna go with the Panthers because


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[Assistant] One, they do a good job of not letting up big pass plays in the pass game. Run defense is their issue and the Falcons are not a great running football team. And then I think the other thing I'll just say is with the Falcons on defense versus that Panthers offense.


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[Assistant] That Panthers offense got weapons. They can throw it deep. They can kind of dissect you with the short passing game too. And I just think the Panthers are a slightly, you know, uh, uh, not a slight, uh, slightly better football team than the Falcons. Yeah, I don't think it's a huge margin, but I think they're a better football team.


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[Assistant] Well, this is, this is a tough one. I mean, I, I'm not, you know, full transparency, I've gone back and forth with this one over the last 24 hours. You know, there, there's a lot of ways to look at the football game. Of course, hey, the Ravens, their offense versus great Steelers defense, everything they have to offer. That's the marquee matchup. We know that.


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[Assistant] I also think, you know, how does this Pittsburgh offense match up with this Baltimore Ravens defense? You know, I can't imagine Pittsburgh being able to run the ball all that effectively on the Baltimore Ravens.


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[Assistant] Also Baltimore secondary or at least their corner play is arguably the best in football. I mean with those two there.


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[Assistant] To where they're aggressive, I think they're gonna give the Steelers short passing game, which they really rely on to help their running game. I think they're gonna give it issues. And I think the one thing I kinda came back to, more than not, and not that I expect this game to be pretty, but, you know, oddly enough,


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[Assistant] I trust Lamar Jackson and Baltimore not to turn the ball over more than I do.


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[Assistant] But at the same time, I think Steelers offense will struggle as well. And I'm going to say that the Ravens cause some sort of deflection, interception on a short wide receiver pass or screen to give them just enough of an edge to go 20 to 17.


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[Assistant] Ravens off the bye week. They know how big of a game is. Maybe Pittsburgh's feeling themselves a little, being the only undefeated team in football. I'm going to go with the Ravens.


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[Assistant] I mean, I could see the game going your way too. I don't. I have no feel for this. This will not be a best bet for me. Not that I don't have a feel for it, it's just that I think they're very evenly matched.


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[Assistant] You know, yeaah, I hear what you're sayin'. Hey, you wanna know here's something really more important?


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[Assistant] I think I found a new, I think I got a new song to my repertoire as far as quarterbacks are concerned. It kind of just hit me out of nowhere. I don't know why last night I saw something on TV about Big Ben over in London, right? And I was like, damn, Big Ben, what kind of noise does that make?


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[Assistant] So I got my new Big Ben song now to go with it. It's the sound of the bell. I mean, it's really, it fits perfectly. I don't know why I dropped the ball on that one. You ever hear the Big Ben bell?


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[Assistant] Yeah, uh, Mike, I'm joining you. You know, this is why I don't like doing the show with you all week, because when it comes to our picks and things like that, yeah, we bounce ideas off of each other and we talk about football so much that you start to go, well, damn, that actually, wait, that's a good point. You know, Florio made and you skew my decisions too. Um, and I'm yes.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go with the Patriots as well. 20 to 17. Desperation, certainly. You know, gotta think pissed off, certainly.


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[Assistant] Bills have hit a little lull, offensively. And then, you know, it's a perfect matchup. Again, the NFL is a game in a league of matchups, and you explained it perfectly.


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[Assistant] You know, the bills are all about passing the football. The Patriots are all about pass defense. I mean, they can stop anybody. You saw what they did to my homes and company. So they can slow them down, let alone Brian Dayball, the offensive coordinator for the bills is from New England. So I think


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[Assistant] That would be Advantage Bill and Company and the Belichick on the defensive side of the ball and then the Bills with their struggles stopping the run. You know, again, I think New England can run the ball and push just about anybody around up front as long as they don't let the game get away from them.


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[Assistant] Who you got and why? Well, I'm stunned by it too.


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[Assistant] I'm going to pick the Titans to win 34-24, but I think I can understand why the line is this way. The line is this way because Joe freaking burrow is really freaking good and they can throw the ball on just about anybody. So, and the Titans.


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[Assistant] Get, everybody throws it on them for the most part. You can move the ball on them. So I think that's probably what skews the line there. Now, what's scary to me too is, you know, what I think though, again,


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[Assistant] Tennessee gonna be playing a team that, you know, Cincinnati can't run the ball all that well.


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[Assistant] I think that favors Tennessee because now they're not going to have to worry about that. They'll be able to put their eggs into a little bit of the more the stop the pass game basket. We don't have to worry about balance and things like that. And then the other thing I really just worry about overall is the Bengals getting steamrolled on defense.


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[Assistant] You know, they are not a good, they're not a good defense really in any category. Let alone run defense. Lack of big people there. And that to me is when Tennessee is really dangerous. When it's just, oh, Derek Henry for seven, play action from Ryan Tannehill for 27. And it's back and forth and back and forth.


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[Assistant] Yeah, this is, uh, it is. It's a back and forth one here for me.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go with the Raiders and of course I'll explain ultimately what led me to this.


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[Assistant] Raiders are desperate. I mean, this is a really big football game for them. You know, to where it's, it's like you lose this. Wow. You're going to really have to start depending on some other people down the stretch, probably to lose some games and things like that.


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[Assistant] So that is the first thing that jumps out to me. Alright, I think the next thing I'll say is this. The Browns defense versus the Raiders offense. Hey, the Browns have a good front four. We know that. There's no doubt about it. But.


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[Assistant] The, the, the Raiders have a really good offensive line. And they got the practice this week. So I think that takes away the Miles Garrett pass rush and all of that like advantage that Brown's defense has. And they have to worry about that run game of the Raiders, which is real.


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[Assistant] So from that, that takes a big advantage. And then, other than that front four of Cleveland, the rest of the defense is not very good. And I think that...


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[Assistant] You know, it's pretty predictable scheme-wise, Gruden, some of the weapons they got, his creativity, their offensive line, I think they're gonna move the ball on this Browns offense. Now, the uh, Browns defense, excuse me, now the Browns offense versus the Raiders defense, I worry about the Raiders defense too. But I'm gonna give them a little hope from this angle.


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[Assistant] The Browns offense is not very intricate and really creative pass wise, right? And the Raiders can play coverage. They can play man to man and lock you down. Now there's no Odell to worry about.


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[Assistant] I just think, hey, they're tough. They're not the greatest front seven, but they're tough. And I think because they'll feel comfortable covering on the outside, they'll make the run game uncomfortable for Cleveland. And that's why I'm ultimately going to go with the Raiders with the upset here, 28-24.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I, I, I think it could go either way. It could go, wait, let's rebound. You know, we weren't at our best last week or yes, like we're demoralized. We kind of got steamrolled by a superior football team and maybe we're not what we thought. I honestly thought too, and there was a part of me


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[Assistant] You know, that thought about making this a high scoring game. I could see this becoming a shootout. I could.


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[Assistant] With the way, you know, both teams and, you know, we hit on all the angles, but I wouldn't be shocked if we sat here and it was like a 38, 34 type of game too. Uh, but either way, it's exciting. I'm glad to see it. It's important. It's the Raiders and the Browns. It's cool when they're, when they're good in the AFC got an old school field.


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[Assistant] Yeah, this is uhm, I'm gonna go with the Colts. I am. I think they're the more well-rounded, better football team. I do. And I think the biggest reason I'll go with the Colts, yes, I think their defense is good. Still one of the better defenses in football.


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[Assistant] Matt Stafford and company though, that offense, I mean, they're gonna make some plays. You're not just gonna shut them out. You're not. But again, I don't know if that offense is consistently dominant and good enough for in a week like this where


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[Assistant] The Lions defense is okay, but where I really worry about the Lions is, you know, some of their run defense. That's where I really look at it and go, ooh, man, the Colts.


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[Assistant] Again, with enough weapons on the outside in a pass game where Patricia's gonna have to worry about that, you know, you can't put all your eggs into the stop the run game basket. I really think ultimately that's gonna be an issue for the Lions in this football game is them getting pushed around up front in the run, in the run game.


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[Assistant] And I just don't know if the Lions offense is diverse enough to attack a really, really good Colts defense. I think they keep it close and it's an interesting game, but I'm gonna go Colts 27-20.


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[Assistant] I don't. I mean, it is, oh, Aaron Rodgers, first Mike Floria's Kirk cousins. Sorry. I know. I know you're off the bandwagon. You're not a Vikings fan anymore. You're fully, it's, it's so divorced, but I, I, I, of course I'm going with the Packers.


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[Assistant] You know, there's one formula I always follow with Aaron Rodgers. You know, first off, the Vikings defense, they're not very good against the run. They're not very good against the pass. That's deadly against, of course, Aaron Rodgers and a team that's somewhat balanced. They have maybe pass heavy, but the run game is still pretty good. And then the other thing I'll always go back to. So when you have that issue and then you don't have a pass rush to stand on,


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[Assistant] This, that's, it's Aaron Rodgers time all day long. This is when he can, you could give him, you and me at receiver and he's gonna win this football game. He can take over in these type of games.


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[Assistant] Because it's just, oh, they're playing run defense. I'll get to the pass. Oh, they're playing pass defense. I'll get to the run. Oh, nobody's open. Oh, hey, Mike Zimmer won this play. Doesn't matter. Nobody's near me. I'll dance around and do a cartwheel and then throw a sidearm laser for 40 yards. He becomes unstoppable versus, uh, games like this to where I just can't, yeah, anyway.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go Packers 31-21. I do think Kirk Cousins and them will run the ball and have a few plays, but ultimately I just think the offensive tack for the Packers is too much.


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[Assistant] I think what's gotta scare them is the Vikings run game. I think that's what's gotta scare like Vegas a little bit. They'll probably look at it and go,


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[Assistant] Wait, the Vikings might be able to be, uh, you know, run the ball, keep Rogers on the sideline type of thing, maybe, to where that works out that way. I don't think that'll happen, but I think that is probably the one scary aspect, if the Vikings were to keep it close, or maybe even pull off some type of upset.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I'm taking the Chiefs and I'm taking the cover. Sometimes when you just, you know, you got a big wave coming in, you just got to ride the wave and go, damn, I don't know. It's big, but I'll take it. It sounds good. I don't give a damn. It's 19 points. The Jets stink.


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[Assistant] The Chiefs have a defense that can shut you out, especially in offense like the Jets, that's not schematically creative, has no talent anywhere.


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[Assistant] And then, I think Greg Williams, and that might be a little bit of a pain in the butt for the Chiefs offense for a little while. But, I mean, it's only a matter of time before the damn breaks there. I think it'd just be a slow, ugly, dominant win.


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[Assistant] I went 27-6, Chiefs, to be nice. I mean, I don't know, I could see a 27-3, 34-3, whatever. I just, I think the Chiefs win and win easily.


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[Assistant] Can you believe that? Can you believe that? I mean, that is unreal. It really is. That's some stat. And I don't mean, I don't give a damn. It's me or anything. It's just the, it's amazing that how few lefties have had a start. And the fact that nobody's won in 16 years and their first start as a lefty, it's insane. So we'll see where this goes. So who you got in this one?


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[Assistant] Yeah, yeah, I mean, it'd be tough for two to live up to that. I mean, come on, I was carving up the saints that day. I actually ended up getting hurt that day and having a, uh,


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[Assistant] Yes, so that was fun. Alright, but. I think this is gonna be a close football game. I can't pick Miami and Tua in his first start ever. I just can't. You know, the Rams defense is damn good. They don't give you anything easy. So.


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[Assistant] Because of that, I just can't go with the Dolphins, and I think their offense will struggle moving the ball consistently all day long. Now, I do think the Dolphins defense will hang in there, versus Rams offense. I think Flores has the right personnel, and...


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[Assistant] Well, it does, it does matter, uhm, but, you know, other than one game in the McVeigh era, I've never seen them not show up for a game and be ready to play ball. The Ravens last year on that, what was that, a Monday night game?


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[Assistant] It's the only game ever. I've never, I saw the Rams go, wait, they're not going to like keep this close? Like what? That doesn't happen. So I would be shocked. They have the type of coach and players and alphas on that team to where they always show up.


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[Assistant] I don't know. I object. Well, I, my, hey, my second picture, I don't necessarily love it, so they want to put my, uh, Chris Sims on button logo there, just like your PFTPM. I'll be perfectly happy. That was a long time ago. Shaggy haircut. I don't like that look. I like this look. I'm gonna get this freshened up tomorrow. I gotta get it done. I want the...


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[Assistant] I know. I think it's again though, a matchup that fits them. I do. You know, I called this Broncos defense average a few weeks ago. They kind of crapped on me on social media when they beat the Patriots. You know, they played good that day. I get it.


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[Assistant] They played good last week against Mahomes & Company. You know, it was the other aspects of the football team that really struggled and the Chiefs got ballers all over the field. But I look at it like this. The Chargers are a big play football team. They can't run the ball. They don't really have a short to intermediate pass game. It's.


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[Assistant] Herbert making unreal throws. I just don't think Vic Fangio is going to give those types of opportunities. The Broncos will play it pretty conservative on the back end.


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[Assistant] You know, to where you're not going to get a lot of deep shots down the field and do those type of things. And because the Chargers can't run the ball, I just think that favors the Broncos even more to go, wait, why do we want to crowd the line of scrimmage and give this guy who might be the best deep ball thrower in football already a chance to do that?


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[Assistant] And on the other side too, you know, the Broncos offense, certainly nothing great, but neither is this Chargers defense.


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[Assistant] And, you know, last week I know it was struggle, but two weeks ago against the Patriots, the stats aren't going to say great things, but Drew Locke made a lot of big time throws. And we're seeing you can move the ball on this Chargers defense. You know, the Jaguars did it last week, so I'm going to say the Broncos find a way to win this game kind of ugly, ugly. 23-20.


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[Assistant] Mike, to your point with Herbert and everything you said, it's right on. And I would feel better about the Chargers if they would just go and let Herbert go.


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[Assistant] Let it go like Joe Burrow and the Bengals. You know, they're still trying to like run this balanced offense and we're going to run on first and run on second and get no yards and then make it harder on our quarterback, even though our plan was to make it easier. It's not going to change Los Angeles Chargers. You can't run the ball. Your O-line stinks. Give it up.


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[Assistant] Play through the past first option. That's why they go through these dull moments in the game where you go, Whoa, they're winning. Whoa. They let them come back. Whoa. They're winning again because they go through these ebbs and flows of like, Oh, we got a 10 point lead. Let's run the ball and control the clock. You're not capable. You're not capable. Look at your damn team.


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[Assistant] The best thing you got is that quarterback that Florio just talked about. Throw in every freaking play. Then maybe the run game will open up. That's where I don't trust them. I think they'll play into the Broncos hand and still be balanced and do that. And Fangio will just kick the crap out of them. That's where I don't trust it, but I love Herbert.


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[Assistant] Well, I'm pickin- I'm pickin' the Saints.


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[Assistant] You know, the Bears defense is scary. There's no doubt. I don't think that any way the Bears can win this game though, unless the defense scores touchdowns. Or at least sets the Bears offense with some short fields off of turnovers. I just don't see any other way. I don't. You know, and again, I have a hard time believing that the Saints


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[Assistant] We'll do those type of things and make those mistakes. They're balanced. They have a very good offensive line. They will not be overpowered by that Bears front seven.


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[Assistant] You know, it's mainly a lot of zone coverages with, with the Chicago Bears. Peyton Manning and, I mean Peyton Manning. Sean Peyton and Drew Brees can pick apart zones better than anybody in the history of football. So I look at that, and then I still go over to this Saints defense, alright? Saints defense is good.


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[Assistant] They mess up three or four plays every game to let up big plays. You know, even statistically, it doesn't make sense. There's seven best defense in football as yards are concerned.


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[Assistant] But they're letting up 29 points per game. Because it's always a big play. Well, if there's one team that can't make a big play, it's the Chicago Bears, okay? So I don't expect that to happen in this game. I think that the Saints are gonna suffocate the Bears in this. It'll be death slowly. 24-13 Saints.


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[Assistant] Yeah, okay. Yeah, that's, I mean, it's, it's not a, that's crazy that we picked that type of scorer for this game. But alright, so you see it's kind of unfolding the same way.


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[Assistant] No, exactly right. And the coach does nothing creatively to give the offensive line ever any advantage. The Bears run, they have three run plays in their offense. It's, it's, it's as simple as it gets.


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[Assistant] So, yeaah, for guys like Dennis Allen and Sean Payton, when they look at the Bears offense, they're gonna be able to break it down in four seconds. Last year they played each other. I know last year was last year.


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[Assistant] The Bears couldn't piss a drop against the Saints defense. That game was 36 to 10, and it was over, over with Teddy Bridgewater. The Bears got two late touchdowns. I just think that to me, that stuck in my mind too, as a point of like, oh wait, no, the Saints know this offense, they know how to shut it down, and I have a hard time thinking the Bears are gonna make a whole lot happen.


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[Assistant] I, I, I have. I've been thinking about picking against him. You know, I feel a little bit like the Raven Steelers in this one where the last like 30 hours, I've kinda gone back and forth both ways. I'm gonna go with the San Francisco 49ers. I'm gonna go with my guy, Kyle Shanahan. I am. First off, he's on fire right now.


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[Assistant] I mean, really on fire with what he's calling in the game as far as pass game, run game, screens. I mean, it couldn't be easier for a quarterback to play for him right now. Like literally, like I think you and me could go there and we'd put up good stats because all we'd be asked to do is make like three throws a game and then everything else is screens and speed sweeps and everything like that.


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[Assistant] Seahawks defense we know is not good. You know, I am worried about the injuries are running back a little bit. I am. And Debo Samuel not being there. But I think the fact that the Seahawks defense is still just so bad and not good in either area, really.


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[Assistant] To where I just, I have a hard time thinking Shanahan won't be able to expose them to a degree. I really do.


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[Assistant] Run game, pass game, whatever it may be. And then the 49ers defense I think has got it back. And I'm gonna go with them to make life hard on Russell Wilson.


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[Assistant] And I can't believe it, but I'm gonna take this 49ers and I'll upset 27-24. I am. I don't feel good about it, ain't gonna be my best bet. But this is one I'm just going with my gut, and I'm gonna go with my buddy and his offensive genius.


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[Assistant] You feel every game is gonna come down to the end. And, you know, fluky endings could be something that they have to see every now and then because, man, when you're just playing a game to come down to the last two or three plays always.


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[Assistant] You know, it's just, it's, it's hard for it to always work out in your favor in the NFL. So, yea, interesting matchup. Certainly big time playoff implications in this one, uh, for that one.


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[Assistant] You know, at the least, I mean, I feel like, I don't know, I don't wanna say at the least, I don't say that, I don't wanna say that. The Cowboys stink. And you know, the Eagles, as far as their offense, I mean, it's nothing special.


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[Assistant] I mean, it's not, it's lack of weapons, it's lack of one in the area that you go is great, but Carson Wentz still is a playmaker, and they still have a decent system to where they'll be able to pick apart this crappy defense, let alone even the Eagles should be able to run against this football team too.


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[Assistant] I just look at it that way and go, yeah, it might not be big plays and just blowing the Cowboys defense off the field, but it would be like, you know.


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[Assistant] Slowly but surely Wentz will pick them apart and scramble and then extend a play and make it happen that way. And I just can't see again on the other side of the ball.


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[Assistant] The Cowboys offense, they might make a play or two because the Eagles will play man to man and probably leave Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup one on one for a few chances to CD Lamb to make a big pass play. But ultimately, the Eagles defense is the better unit.


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[Assistant] The Cowboys are not a balanced football team anymore. They can't rely on the run at all. And I just think that all favors the Eagles. Their pass rush will tee off all of that. So I go Eagles 24 to 10.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm with you. It just, it's, you know, again, we're, we're, I'm speculating by saying this and all that, but it just, it, it looks like they're, you know,


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[Assistant] Kind of just beaten down already. Just the way they handle stuff. The way Mike McCarthy even seems in the press conferences, it already seems like wide-eyed, flustered, I'm on defense. Let me figure this out, and that's where I just, I don't have any hope for Cowboys either.


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[Assistant] Yeaah, well I like the, hey, the Giants defense I think can maybe make it a little tough on Brady and them for a little bit, but ultimately there's just too many weapons there. Really the big concern is the Giants offense versus the Bucks defense. I mean that offensive line's gonna get steamrolled.


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[Assistant] By that Buccaneers defense and they're very talented. I just don't know. I don't have any trust there. I'm going bucks 31 17 and probably it was nice to the giants. They're probably should have gone 31 14, maybe even 31 10, but I'm going bucks all the way.


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[Assistant] Well, okay, I'm gonna, like, full transparency. I got five that really, like, I'm, I'm torn. I know my three I'm gonna go with, but, you know, I thought about the Titans over the Bengals. I don't trust the Titans past defense. You know, I don't. So that's where I just can't, I can't go. I think they win the game, I just don't know how much they win by. Alright, the other one I thought about was Rams-Dolphins.


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[Assistant] But I'm a little worried that the Dolphins and Brian Flores will...


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[Assistant] Make it real close and their defense will shut down McVeigh and Goff to where I'm just not sure how much the Rams win by. I guess I'm a little scared there.


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[Assistant] So my first one is I'm riding the points. I'm going with the Chiefs. Yes, I am.


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[Assistant] I know what the Chiefs are. I know they're a defense that can shut you down and make plays themselves.


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[Assistant] And yeaah, the Jets stink. I mean, they have a hard time moving the ball against anybody, let alone the Chiefs defense. And yeaah, there's respect for that Jets defense, but come on, this is the Chiefs offense who's showing they can do a lot of different things now. So I have the Chiefs winning that one 27 to 6, and I think it'll probably be more.


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[Assistant] I, I, I, I know. I just chickened out. I just, I get scared that Joe's gonna throw the ball all over the place on them and the game will be, you know, somewhat close like the Vikings-Titans game that shouldn't have been close earlier this year. That's, I, I got scared. So good for you to have the guts to do it.


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[Assistant] Alright, my next one, I'm going with the Saints over the Bears. It's only four and a half.


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[Assistant] I think this, I don't think there's any chance these Bears can move the ball consistently on the Saints. Like we've said, the Saints are one of the top 10 defenses in football and yards allowed.


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[Assistant] They've let up big plays in every game. I just, the Bears aren't capable of big plays. I don't think the offense is even going to challenge the Saints in some of their defensive rules to expose them that way. So because of that, I just think it's a slow, ugly, grinded out win for the Saints. 24-13, I'm riding with the Saints.


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[Assistant] I mean, that's another one I thought about. I'm just chicken. I'm chicken. I'm scared of the Vikings in the run game and all that. And they might like just make it a little closer. So, man, I'm going to be really pissed if you hit on those two and I chickened out and didn't do it. Alright.


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[Assistant] I'm going with, I'm going with Brady and the Bucks, Monday Night Football. I mean, I am, yeaah.


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[Assistant] You know, it's, I know the Giants have had a lot of extra time and all that. It's just not a good matchup for the Giants. The, the Buccaneers are the best team in the NFC. I think they're only just going up. I don't think they're going to fall asleep at the wheel here with the Giants. The Giants offense, I can't imagine them having much life here against this Bucs defense. That's awesome.


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[Assistant] And Brady and everybody, they're pretty much unstoppable. They can do whatever they want on a given week. So I have bucks winning 31 17 and I'm going with them.


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[Assistant] I will go with oh thy Aaron Rodgers in there and pick that. If we can't, if the Giants come down with COVID and all that, I'm going with the Packers.


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[Assistant] Hi, I'm Mike Tirico and thanks for watching. Make sure to hit subscribe for the latest news and highlights from NBC Sports.


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[Assistant] Full disclosure, when I got to meet Ahmed, I choked like a bastard all the time saying his name. I don't know what it is, but I just loved it and we heard, we heard, yea, everybody heard it, we heard people doing that in our pre-game rehearsal a little bit and we got quite a chuckle out of that.