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[Assistant] Alright, anyway, moving on. Safeties aren't cheap, for instance. Safeties aren't cheap, and liquid, uh, liquid.


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[Assistant] Jesse Bates did that, uh, the defense for, for the Atlanta Falcons this year. Alright, Ravens, this is just a big old shot at you, Breech.


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[Assistant] You can guess where every single person on the planet who covers the NFL is going to predict where he might be signing in 2024, uh, the off season because his, his own DC might be Donald, now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. Bagger of Taggart, Breach.


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[Assistant] Eight and a half combined in his first three seasons with Baltimore. His first three seasons, he also had 16 quarterback hits. Last year he had 33.


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[Assistant] I mean, that is ridiculous. Uh, tackles for loss numbers, you know, 12 is the guy that puts against a ton of pressure. And I would think that you could tag him and sign him to a long-term deal.


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[Assistant] That is sort of below market because even though the numbers are there and the production is there, it is just a single year and he is not on the radar of your average. Like I know that doesn't necessarily matter as much when you're talking contracts, but he's just not on the radar is like an elite, you know, elite, you know, defensive pressure guy. So.


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[Assistant] I think, I think there's a decent chance to make a move there. And you get the cheaper tag at defensive tackle. Uhm, I don't know, defensive tackle is more this year.


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[Assistant] I'm with you, I think that uhm, I agree with you, I think.


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[Assistant] I think I agree completely. The Bucks have to be thinking quarterback is more important than anything, but at the same time it's like...


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[Assistant] It does feel like contrary to that report that Baker wants to be in Tampa Bay, that he likes the, the setup there, the, you know, he had success in his first year there. I think he and Jason light, the GM get along so.


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[Assistant] I would say tag Antoine Winfield and play chicken with Baker personally, just because a lot of the teams who are quarterback needy are high in the draft.


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[Assistant] And probably going to be making picks and maybe, yeaah, I don't think you're going to have a ton of competition for Baker as previously thought. Alright, last one. Dolphins. Christian Wilkins. Stud out of Clemson.


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[Assistant] I, uh, I do think it's worth noting too here. So if the dolphins tagged him and they were still trying to figure out their salary cap thing, he could wait and wait and wait until the last minute to sign it.


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[Assistant] And if the new league year began and he hadn't signed his tag and so it wasn't, although I guess it's actually technically if they've tagged you, it still applies to the salary cap. Even if he hadn't signed it.


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[Assistant] So there's a situation where they might have to rescind the tag if they were over it, like, you know, if they couldn't come up to a deal. So yeah, I mean, that's good. Good for Christian Wilkins. That could equal getting pay. All right. That's it for Tag Talk. Take a break. Can we come back? Lessons learned in 2023. Next.


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[Assistant] Alright, time to look at some lessons from 2023. We each have one. For each, yours is very simple.


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[Assistant] You know, you see everybody who gets these, it's like, oh yeah, I got my Superbowl prediction right. It's like, yeah, you pick the Chiefs. Like, and, but I mean, it is.


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[Assistant] I think that we maybe took for granted a little bit just how, until you, you understand this as well as anybody, because you live in New England, like this is what the Patriots were like for 20 years. You can pick somebody else to win the AFC. Knock yourself out.


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[Assistant] And it's worth doing too. It's like, I mean, look, Ryan Wilson not here, so he can't defend himself on this. I said for like the final five to six weeks of the season, I was like, okay, the Chiefs don't look great.


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[Assistant] We saw Patriots teams like, but Wilson's like, that's just not gonna happen. Just can't happen.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I can. I did. To a degree. And they had a bunch of scoreless quarters and scoreless drives in the playoffs.


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[Assistant] But we've seen, we saw for years, Patriot teams that weren't that great.


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[Assistant] You just get, you get them to the playoffs and they just have these different advantages with coaching at quarterback where they, and they, and they know how to win in these spots because they've won so much. It's like, you just, actually Patrick Bowen has won four games. And not only that.


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[Assistant] You don't have to like elevate your game. You just have to maintain your level. Everyone else is going to freak out and you're going to be like, you know, you're going to benefit from that. And we've seen that certainly with the Patriots and now with the Chiefs as well. All right. My lesson. Oh, sorry. You got another one. No, go, go, go. One lesson each. One lesson each. My lesson. Patience with a head coach can sometimes pay off. And we saw that this year with Dan Campbell, he started in 2021.


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[Assistant] This happens all the time with NFL coaches and with college coaches where you struggle out of the gate, the bad team, the Lions were patient.


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[Assistant] Eight, obviously you're not going to fire him after that run when he beats Green Bay on Sunday night to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. But then they come back this year and make the NFC title game. And I just think there are franchises. I mean, hey, Carolina.


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[Assistant] That would have said, well, this isn't working a year and a half in and fired Dan Campbell and you'd be rebooting all over again.


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[Assistant] I would say the Giants. I think they had that first good season with Brian Dable.


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[Assistant] If anything, they're a victim of their own success because they, they won games, went to the playoffs that first year. And it reminds me, I've said this a ton, it reminds me of the Buffalo Bills when Sean McDermott took over, Brian Dable was there with them. Uh, how like surprising first year, step back in the second year and then, you know, find your quarterback. They still got to do that, but find your quarterback and maybe have success. I think you could also argue that the Bills qualify.


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[Assistant] Like, I just feel like people are like, well, let's buckle our things down. Let's pull the plug and reboot the whole thing. It's like, pretty good football team in the last few years.


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[Assistant] That's the storyline of the offseason, what the Bears do with that number one pick now that Belichick's unemployed. Uh, alright, Sel, your lesson for 2023.


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[Assistant] Great call. Uhm, two things there. One, uh, Sully, you were getting some serious heat in the streets with the, uh, Eagles and the Ravens looking like the two number one seeds of first bird Super Bowl. People were talking. People were talking. People were like, uh, Sully might have his pick. And then boom, the Eagles crashed.


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[Assistant] No, but the Bengals lose their offensive coordinator who we think is a pretty good offensive coordinator even if he's not calling plays. The Browns as a result lose the best offensive line coach in football in Bill Callahan, Brian's dad who goes to the Titans. And then you have the Bengals, excuse me, the Ravens losing Mike McDonald.


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[Assistant] Yeah. It's like, it's like when people handicap games are like, well, I mean, everybody's healthy. It's like Apple offensive line is missing. That's a big deal. You know, the, the, the stuff that's below the surface matters as well. Is this Brenton?


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[Assistant] Alright, anything else on lessons learned in 2020-30?


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[Assistant] Learned a few life lessons. We can get to those later. Sully's going to learn a big life lesson in 2024. What it's like to be married.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we're back tomorrow. Brady and Deuce. We'll be, uh, going live at noon Eastern time. It's gonna be our Wednesday show time because of life lessons learned elsewhere. For Sully, for Breach, I'm Brinson. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. We'll see you guys later.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it really blows my mind that we're talking about someone who only played for 10 seasons.


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[Assistant] Being an absolute walk. But Brenton, look, I know that sometimes


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[Assistant] You exaggerate about walks for the hall of fame and sometimes Wilson gives you funny faces.


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[Assistant] If he was here right now, no one would because this is just, this seems like a slam dunk. I mean, we were talking about someone who was first team all pro in eight of his 10 seasons. We were talking about someone who was a three time defensive player of the year tied for the most NFL history with JJ watt and Lawrence Taylor. We were just talking about someone.


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[Assistant] Who was absolutely dominant on the interior of the defensive line, which is just not something we don't see that kind of dominance from that spot. We haven't seen it.


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[Assistant] Uh, over the past decade, past two decades besides Aaron Donald and, and personally, I mean, I literally have nightmares every night about the final Bengals final offensive play in Super Bowl 56 when fourth and one, you get one yard, you got to get a first down.


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[Assistant] Get your, get in field goal range, get Evan McPherson, tie the game. But no, Aaron Donald blew that up. Jamar Chase was running wide open down the sideline. If Joe Burrow gets an extra five tenths of a second to throw the ball, the Bengals probably win that game, but they didn't.


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[Assistant] Hall of Famer, Aaron Donald made a Hall of Fame play, blew through the line, put pressure on Burrow. And that was it. I mean, how many defensive players get to make a game winning plan to Superbowl? So yeah, Aaron Donald, definitely Hall of Famer.


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[Assistant] The 23rd overall pick originally belonged to the Browns and then they gave to the Texans as part of the Deshaun Watson trade. And now here we are, it is once again changing hands again, and it could lead to a team acquiring a quarterback. And so yeah, I think you guys hit the nail on the head. This does feel like.


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[Assistant] Ammo for the Vikings to move up probably into the top five.


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[Assistant] And I think there's a couple teams that have an interesting choice here. I mean, the Arizona Cardinals.


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[Assistant] Do they want to say it for and take a receiver? Probably. But if you tell them, Hey, look, you get to pick 11, 23 and a first or second round pick next year.


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[Assistant] I think you have to seriously think about that. I mean, you can't just totally discount that. So not just the Patriots at three, but the Cardinals at four. Uh, and considering the losses, the Chargers have had to share with Mike Williams, trading Keenan Allen, Austin Ecker leading free agency. They have to think about accruing more picks. So I think definitely the Cardinals and Chargers both seem like, uh, good possible trade partners.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it was really weird once we saw the dominoes start to fall at quarterback and it kept, after the first week of free agency, it was who's going to trade for Justin Fields because it doesn't feel like


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[Assistant] You can't betray Justin Fields for a 6th round pick. And I just don't know why the Bears didn't hang on to him longer. It's one of those things. And again, I'll go back to 2011. Bengals, Carson Palmer.


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[Assistant] Carson Palmer was going to retire. The Bengals said no, unless something blows us away. We're not trading him. What happened is the Raiders quarterback got injured. So now a team needs a quarterback and now you hold all the leverage. If that happened in training camp or even September,


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[Assistant] Now the Bears have a total average and now maybe you get a second or third round pick for Justin Fields. Instead you give him away for nothing. I just don't get this from the Bears perspective.


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[Assistant] So I think if Mike Tomlin told him that he was going to be the star, that he probably would have signed and expect Tomlin not to backtrack on his word.


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[Assistant] I think it does get more awkward if they get the training camp and Justin Fields is the more talented quarterback and the players can see that on the field. That definitely makes it a little more awkward, but I would, I mean, Russell Wilson, clearly it seems like he likes Pittsburgh.


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[Assistant] Uh, so far, what he has around him. So I do think he would have signed, uhm, but who knows? You know, who knows? And the one thing I will say is, the bears are gonna look really silly.


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[Assistant] If the Steelers flip Justin Fields, maybe Fields doesn't even make it to training camp. You said you're drafting solid. Maybe somebody calls the Steelers up during the draft.


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[Assistant] On day three and says, all right, we didn't get the quarterback we wanted. We'll give you a third round pick for fields. Or again, the training camp thing, a QB goes down. Somebody calls the Steelers up. Hey, we'll give you a second round pick because we are so desperate. We don't have a starting quarterback. And now the Steelers look brilliant and the Bears look like total fools for, uh, as you said, it's always selling at the lowest point possible.


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[Assistant] If the Chargers want to give up the fifth overall pick for T Higgins, uh, as a Bengals fan, I will sign off on that.


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[Assistant] That's about the only deal. And Bryd said to answer your question about what was more surprising. I definitely thought it was the Keenan Allen trade because it really felt like they were going to make a move just because of all the salary cap hits. Mike Williams has been battling


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[Assistant] He had twice as many receiving yards as anyone else on the team. I mean, that is an absurd number when you doubled up anyone else on your roster. Clearly Justin Herbert's favorite target.


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[Assistant] So, you take him out of there, and you take off his security blanket, and it definitely makes things a lot dicier.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I kind of agree with Saulie here that does feel like the Chargers are kicking the can down the road and that 2024, I don't want to say it's a throwaway season because it's never throwaway season NFL and you have Justin Herbert. So you will compete, but man, they don't have a lot left on offense, even though they did add Gus the bus Edwards and uh, Will Disley.


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[Assistant] I think he wants, they asked him to pick a pay cut, not a restructure. Like helps the cap, whereas pay cut is, yea, you're not.


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[Assistant] And real quick on Mark Eastbrown, I wanna say this real quick, uh, look.


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[Assistant] You look at what the chiefs do on offense with zero receivers last year with zero, you know, obviously you have Travis Kelsey, but that team still averaged.


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[Assistant] Uh, 246.4 passing yards per game. You still rank in the top 60 NFL the year before they averaged 297 passing yards per game, which was number one in the NFL.


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[Assistant] Marquis Brown has never played in an offense that has averaged more than 235 passing yards per game.


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[Assistant] And they didn't hit any home runs, but I thought they were consistent enough that they plugged the holes they need to plug. I mentioned Carlton Davis on defense, but they also added, you got to run stuff on DJ Reader. You got some pass rush help and Marcus Davenport. So.


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[Assistant] Again, nothing blew me away, but it just felt like a consistently good week for the line. So A-.


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[Assistant] Yeah, absolutely. I give the Packers a B+. I think the interesting though, or maybe, I don't even know if interesting is the right word, uh, but,


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[Assistant] But it seems unlikely that he plays out all four years. And so it's just a hefty paycheck when you look at the rest of the running back market.


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[Assistant] And yeaah, so obviously you're giving him that kind of money. You are planning on getting him involved in that offense. So I do like that. Xavier McKinney signing was huge. Uh, but again, that's.


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[Assistant] Yeah, two big signings and the rest of it was just kind of, and let's figure out what we're doing. So yeah, I think B plus is good.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I, uh, I, I get a touch better. I don't know why though. I'm going to give them a C. Maybe I should move down to a C minus. Uh, but for me, this is simple. They lost their best offensive player, Kirk Cousins. They lost their best defensive player, Daniel Hunter, and they didn't replace either of those two with better players. And,


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[Assistant] That's it. I mean, that's what it comes down to. And they also signed a kicker who's never kicked in an NFL regular season game. They're going to let Greg Joseph walk. It's looking like, I don't know what the Vikings are doing. Uh, so see.


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[Assistant] So if they had gone 12 and five and finished three games ahead of everyone, that's one thing, but they went nine and eight. And so I'm not sure I'm bringing back the same exact team that went nine to eight. I just don't feel like they did a lot of upgrading. Uh, and you know, I'm not going to be picking the Buccaneers when the Superbowl. So I'll give them a B.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm going to go with a C. I mean, look, they, they sign Nathan Peterman. Does that count for anything?


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[Assistant] And I can't believe they got compensation for Desmond Ritter. You look at all the other teams. We're talking about Mack Jones only going for a sixth round pick. Justin Fields going for a sixth round pick.


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[Assistant] The Falcons got someone who might actually be productive in their offense in Rondale-Moore. When you're talking about being a third receiver behind Darnell Mooney and Drake London, uh, he could put up some decent numbers. I mostly agree with you guys. I'm not gonna go full A+. I'm just going with a regular A. No plus.


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[Assistant] Obviously, Kirk Cousins coming off. You're putting all your eggs in the Kirk Cousins basket, which is fine, except that he's coming off a torn Achilles. So that is my one, one tiny minor concern that knocks me from the A plus down to that.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm going to give them a C. I just think that giving away your best pass rusher.


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[Assistant] Uh, for not a lot, isn't a great look, even if you are throwing, even if you're giving up on next season. Well, when you put it that way.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's just, that's enough to turn, and like, I understand what's always saying that it is all about Bryce Young and what he looks like, but even with the Deontay Johnson trade,


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[Assistant] Their best receivers, best two are still Deontay Johnson and Adam Thielen right now. I mean, that's still not a great receiving duo. Uh, so I am still not sold at all on the Panthers.


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[Assistant] You know what? I didn't think this would happen. I think this might be the first time we're gonna go straight agreement. I'm gonna go B-2.


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[Assistant] Uh, the 49ers didn't do anything flashly. Brinson mentioned the Eric Armstead stuff. They either release him because he doesn't want to take a pay cut. I do like that they traded for Malik Collins. They didn't give up much and I think that could be a sneaky good addition.


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[Assistant] Uh, but other than that, they've been pretty quiet. They did get pass rushing help, which is what they needed.


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[Assistant] Uhm, we still don't know what's gonna, they're gonna lose Chase Young too. Uh, but with Leonard Floyd and Gros Matos, those are two pretty solid additions. So, uh, yeaah, they didn't do anything to wow me, but they didn't, uh, pull a Dallas Cowboys, who we'll talk about in a little bit, and do nothing. Uh, so, I'll go B-.


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[Assistant] Uh, and to answer Sully's question, apparently Sean McVay told Albert Brear of Sports Illustrated that Aaron Donald said he was going to retire the day after the Rams lost to the Lions in this playoffs.


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[Assistant] Uh, you know, why not announce it when you have that kind of open window after the super before the combine or after the combine before free agency. There are plenty of spots. And if the Rams did know that it doesn't feel like they really went out and.


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[Assistant] Found somebody who could even start replacing. I know you mentioned Christian Wilkins.


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[Assistant] But obviously the Aaron Donald thing is huge, but I do like what they did on defense and the secondary, uh, bringing back Darius Williams, also signing Cam Curl. I think those are both two very, very good signings, maybe even underrated signings. And then obviously fortifying the offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson.


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[Assistant] Uh, look, Matthew Safford is getting older. He can't keep taking hits. You need a good offensive line. Uh, so I liked both of those. I got the Rams with a B.


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[Assistant] Uh, I'm gonna go with Brenton C+. Interesting they traded for Sam Howe. I think that, who knows, obviously, uh, Gino Smith expected to be the starter, but who knows how that will play out. They released a bunch of guys, which was interesting, but yeaah, I'll go C+, also.


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[Assistant] Yeah, good on them for signing, uh, Jonah Williams, beefing up the offensive line, but totally agree with you guys. I mean, who was Kyler Murray throwing the ball to? Uh, that seems like a problem. So I'm going to give them just a regular C. I'm not going to throw the minus, me nice to the birds.


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[Assistant] The Giants training for Brian Burns. We just talked about it a little bit. I just think they got a great deal. They didn't have to overpay and now you're putting them on a defensive line that already has Dexter Lawrence, that already has Kavon Thibodeau.


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[Assistant] I mean, it looks like they are going back to their Eli Manning days of, we don't know what we're going to get from the offense, so we've got to build a defense that can win Super Bowls or compete for playoff wins or win the division. That's what they're doing here. I like what they have on the defensive line and I like that move.


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[Assistant] I don't think all in means what Jerry thinks it means. That's the problem. Uh, I'm gonna give, I'm gonna go D minus. I am going to give them a small inkling of credit for the Eric Kendrick signing, uh, but that is it. D minus.


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[Assistant] But I love the Gardner Johnson signing. That's a big one. I think Saquonka Barkley is going to take a lot of pressure on Jalen Hurts. That's going to help out the offensive ton. Uh, so you mentioned Bryce Huff.


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[Assistant] Does he replace Fletcher Cox? Probably not, but he is a good pass rusher. I think he can be good in that defense. And let's not forget they re-signed their superstar Jake Elliott to a four year deal. I'm giving them an A minus.


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[Assistant] Uh, and I already just explained how much I love the Brian Burns deal, and because of that alone, I have to give the Giants something in the A range, so I'm giving them an A-. I think they've had a pretty impressive offseason.


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[Assistant] I am going to go in that B range for you guys that you didn't want to hit up. I actually liked what the commanders did this off season. Uh, of course, Brenton mentioned they signed a kicker that was obviously


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[Assistant] Uh, he gets to reunite with Dan Quinn, who was his defensive coordinator in Seattle. So I think Quinn brought him in to kind of be that veteran leader on that defense. And then you just look kind of what they did on the offensive line. Nick Allegretti, uh, getting him from Kansas City, I think was a very, very good signing. Um, just.


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[Assistant] Man, Austin Eckler! Austin Eckler, I feel like, is going to be, uh, somebody who has put up some impressive numbers in Washington. So I'm gonna go B minus.


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[Assistant] That's what I was going to say is the cousins. I totally get it. And I'm with you guys for the, for the most part. I think it's a, it's a solid top 10. I really don't have any issues with it. I get where Pete's coming from. Obviously it's a positional value. You want to get a quarterback when healthy cousins is a guy that could take you there, but boy.


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[Assistant] He does have more question marks than to just say he's a set and forget guy that you can plug in and be great. We don't know what it's going to look like post Achilles. We're all kind of in this like weird world now where I don't know these Achilles injuries are now like ACLs where you just come back from them.


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[Assistant] I don't know if that's necessarily the case. So for a guy with those kind of question marks at that age and all of the questions about him as a player when it comes to winning in the postseason and winning in these tight games, that's a, it's a tough number one, but again, I could see where he's coming.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think that's totally fair. I mean, again, we're talking about positional value. That was the case that was made for Kirk Cousins at number one.


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[Assistant] It just feels like Baker could be a touch higher. Again, he's 13, so it's not like he's down in the, he's 27th or anything like that. Like he is still in the top, in the top 15. There is some value put there, but if we're talking about number one for Kirk Cousins,


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[Assistant] There isn't as crazy of a drop off as you may think with Baker Mayfield.


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[Assistant] Well not only that, well real quick, you know, as much as we're talking about the defensive side there too, Kansas City still does, I know they just won the Super Bowl, but their big glaring need this entire season was wide receiver. That's not a cheap position to go fill. So if you might have to choose between Chris Jones and Snead or keeping one of them and then addressing the wide receiver spot.


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[Assistant] See, that applies specifically with Sneed, I think, because he's someone who hasn't really even cashed in at all yet to this point. Chris Jones, you might be able to make a case, I mean, there's a couple of years there where he's made 27-odd million dollars. That's maybe a little bit more of a pull to say, hey, come back, let's do this three-peat.


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[Assistant] Sneed might not be as, as willing to do that to sacrifice some money.


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[Assistant] Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins. I think he stays in Minnesota. Like I said on Monday, I think that they somehow find an agreement.


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[Assistant] You know, fully guaranteed deal for a short amount of years. They still draft a quarterback somewhere and he's the bridge guy for that next play. Yep.


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[Assistant] Daniel Hunter, I think probably Houston Texans might be an interesting one. Pair him with Willie Anderson, they have a lot of money to spend. Defensive minded head coach, that could be a landing spot there.


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[Assistant] If he doesn't stay with the Bears, I love the storyline of him staying in the NFC North and signing with the Detroit Lions. They need help in the secondary. They have a little bit of money to spend. I think they have like 52 million dollars in space if I'm pretty sure, pretty certain.


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[Assistant] helps put Detroit over the top. That was one of their biggest Achilles heels. Last season was the secondary. You bring in a guy that's young, can fit with that core. I think that would make all the sense in the world. And a little spice because it's in the division.


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[Assistant] I'll go quick on this because we said it earlier this week. He seems like a clear cut tag guy. If they're not going to tag Baker, they're not going to tag Evans. He's the guy.


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[Assistant] He was in the, he was 34th. But the same rule applies because it goes off to the conversation that we were going to have. I, I have to double check if he's on here. If he's not, Kendrick Bourne certainly applies for me. He's a guy that. But you don't want, you would prefer to, you just want to shift to Bourne.


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[Assistant] Well if we're doing outside of the, outside of the, uhm, top 50.


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[Assistant] Breakdown Marquis Brown. Give it out. No, it goes off of what we were just talking about with Kansas City. I think that he's someone who they should target.


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[Assistant] He's someone who, with a lot of these wide receiver needy teams who are looking for speed, I think could be really underrated.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's one of those things that, like, when we're talking about, you know, where they rank, every team has different values. I mean, you're talking about 25-year-old pass rushers.


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[Assistant] Sure, sure. Yeah, no, no, no, that's totally true, but when we're talking about like, you know, Leonard Floyd and other players like that...


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[Assistant] You know, maybe he's more valuable to a team that's right in contention. They just want the one year rental. So that is a little, that is a tough thing to parse here when we're trying to say what.


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[Assistant] You know what teams are valuing Bryce Hub over like Leonard Floyd, just to use the example of Chase Young.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I love that. I, you know, he's somebody for me up here in New England. I've been saying all along, he could be a guy that you bring in, similar to like Jacoby Bursets of the world and those types of players to bring in if you have a young quarterback that you might not think is 100% ready to start week one. He's certainly someone that could come in.


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[Assistant] Keep you relatively low in terms of a higher floor.


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[Assistant] And kind of keep things afloat until that young quarterback is ready to come in. Or like you're saying, if a team like, I don't know, Minnesota loses Kirk Cousins, they draft a guy on day two or they get a guy, you know, I think they're picking like 11th or something like that. If they don't think that that dude's ready right away, you bring in a guy like Mark Gardner Minshew. I think that makes all the sense in the world.


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[Assistant] It would have been what we're talking about with Chicago, whether it's you draft, you know, Caleb Williams or keep Justin Fields. We would have had these same conversations because they would have a tough.


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[Assistant] It wouldn't surprise me if we see almost all of these players on different teams to be perfectly honest with you. I don't know if we're gonna get, well first of all I don't think some of these players are capable of getting the franchise tag yet again.


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[Assistant] Cause a lot of them got tagged last year. And so, you know, I'm looking at, you know, Derek Henry, I know he's the third guy on this list, but you know, overall in terms of career success, he's clearly number one in my opinion.


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[Assistant] I think that he is, and I said it at the trade deadline, I'll say it now. I think he's perfect for the Baltimore Ravens. I think that if the Ravens are going to go after one of these running backs, because I do believe that they're going to be in the running back market.


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[Assistant] He is certainly one that I would go after. The pairing of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry would create just a heck of a mismatch. So to me, that's the biggest takeaway is that I think Derrick Henry is hitting the market. I think it's time that Tennessee is done. And where does he go? I would pick Baltimore if I were him.


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[Assistant] I like that. I mean, again, every, from every account, they all wanted Antonio Piers back. I mean, Max Crosby was like basically requesting a trade if that didn't happen. So if Josh Jacobs has that same type of affection,


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[Assistant] Are any of these running backs on your radar? Am I right in that assumption that they could be targeting one of these guys? Or do you think that they just bring back Joe Mixon?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think that they could bring, honestly, any of these in. But to me, I think Austin Ecklund would be the most fascinating because if they just want to go all in on just airing it out and just saying, hey, we're going to, we're going to throw it all over the field. We're going to throw it out of the back, but we're going to just basically, you know, throw the running game off to the side. Obviously, you know, being a little facetious, but.


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[Assistant] That to me, I think would be an interesting one because you have a guy in Austin Echler who has been with the Chargers his entire career. It's, you know, for the most part been an afterthought franchise in the city that they're currently in. And then they obviously they relocated from San Diego.


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[Assistant] If you could just all of a sudden put the star on the side of your helmet and be the running back for the Dallas Cowboys, I think that would be very attractive.


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[Assistant] I think that this, I said it earlier this week, it was one of my lessons. Go back and listen to the episode. You have to question these teams that have a lot of change. And I was talking about it from the defensive coordinator standpoint, losing Mike McDonald.


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[Assistant] If all of a sudden you're now telling me that they're also going to lose Matabeke, Queen, Stone, or Clowney, or some combination of all those guys?


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[Assistant] I just really am putting more stock into, hey, if you lose your defensive coordinator and now you're also losing, potentially,


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[Assistant] Some of your key free agents that what made you an AFC championship contender, the number one defense in the NFL. I don't know if you can just say, okay, we're just going to go into the draft and nail it and bring these guys in and be great. I think that sometimes you do need to have that stability.


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[Assistant] Oftentimes when we talk about these older guys, it's to Super Bowl contenders, right? I mean, they're, they're looking for somebody to.


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[Assistant] But if you're, if you are the Lions who allowed like seven yards per catch last season.


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[Assistant] He's somebody who I thought was really impressive last year with Dallas after they lost Trayvon Diggs for the year. Obviously, you know, there's, there was a lot of names in that defense, but he's someone who I think flew a little bit under the radar and he is still a shut down corner in this, in the league, I think. And I still think that he could be an impact player at his old age.


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[Assistant] Uh, mine, I'm cheating a little bit because it's more likely that this person gets traded more than they do, than they do actually hit the open market. But the Patriots would clear about $5 million if they cut Matt Judon. And I think that he is somebody that


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[Assistant] Will be available to teams this offseason. Again, I don't think he's gonna get cut because you don't cut a player that's that impactful, but he's also coming off of an injury.


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[Assistant] He's somebody who is 31, 32 years old. Doesn't really fit the timeline for this Patriots team right now.


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[Assistant] But would certainly be attractive to one of these contenders


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[Assistant] a legit pass rusher. He's the Patriots kind of had m to get him to kind of co it was in training camp. It he kind of was hanging ou practicing. They moved so has a base salary of 6.5


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[Assistant] I think that there, unless you see something, you know, an extension happen, he's going to the final year of his deal, don't be surprised if you start hearing things about Matt Judon possibly get moved.


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[Assistant] Yeah, and that's why I have the Houston Texans as the likely winner of the offseason because they already have their quarterback situation figured out. They already have their head coaching situation figured out. They were able to keep


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[Assistant] Bobby Slowick, their offensive coordinator, we referenced earlier this week, one of the early wins of the off season. And I think that ball is only going to continue to roll because now that you have Stroud in place and you already have a pretty solid offensive line in front of him, it's not like you have to recreate that overnight.


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[Assistant] Now it's the fun part. Now it's like, all right, what wide receivers do we want to put Tank, Dell, and Ecocom? Mike Evans is from Houston. Right. Let's bring in Mike Evans. Let's bring in T Higgins. Let's see what Michael Pittman's availability is in pre-agency.


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[Assistant] This is where you can start to get a little fun and you have a quarterback on his rookie deal. You have top 10 cap space in the league. This is the time that you start throwing the wallet around.


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[Assistant] to build it around CJ str on his rookie deal. You c defensive players, skilled think it's gonna look real end of this summer wher the Texans, they really l see a lot of people jump


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[Assistant] Out there, there are two colossal beings.


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[Assistant] Both forces of nature in their own regard.


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[Assistant] But in here, as soon as the chute bursts open, the duality of man and beast begins to fade.


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[Assistant] I'm Will Brinson. I'm your host. This episode of Pick Six is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. Make every moment more. Joining me, we go with five minutes early.


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[Assistant] And we were, we were early. We made up, making up for years of running late on this podcast. Like only five minutes early. We're doing it to celebrate the new league year. Joining me to do so here on New League Year Eve, John Breach and Tyler Sullivan fellas. Happy New League Year. What's up? Happy New League Year. Look at us.


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[Assistant] Certainty of being where I'm supposed to be when I'm supposed to be there.


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[Assistant] Starburst would be nice too. I might get a cold brew in a second.


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[Assistant] Do we think, what are the odds, what are the chances? We're gonna get to a ton of stuff. We're gonna, uhm, teams, by the way, have to be cap compliant. Oh, actually, no, we got three minutes. We'll talk about Mike Williams, cut by the, uh, the Los Angeles Chargers. Khalil Mack sticking around, uh, they, are they, are they cap compliant currently? Did they get under the cap that Mike Williams cut?


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[Assistant] In the last few minutes that maybe changed that, I'm trying to see if we've seen any, uhm, tweets.


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[Assistant] The cap. All right. So the Mac restructure probably not built into that quite yet on over the cap. They tend to wait and see what it is. Yeah. So, uh, Clio Mac currently has a, um, 38.5 million dollar cap number. Joey Bosa, 36.6. Keenan Allen, 34.7. Hey, shout out to Tom Tolesco, a new Raiders GM.


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[Assistant] If you're, in case you're worried about the Raiders, if you're a Raiders fan, uh, don't, don't be worried.


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[Assistant] I want like, I want like an actual ticking clock here. I mean, I don't want to, uhm, I don't want to wait. It's, it's, uh.


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[Assistant] No, I need a ball. Don't put me on the big screen. I don't need that. You gotta hold up a clock. It's like three, two, uh, yeah, I mean, it's uh, oh wait, it's like one o'clock in Cupertino, which Apple likes to remind you frequently. It's like, ah, I don't need another time.


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[Assistant] Uh, yeah, it's going to bring it in a second. Do uhm, after we ring it in, we can talk about, we'll talk some more legal tampering stuff, but I am curious, do you guys think like how much?


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[Assistant] Maybe wait till like 4 or 5, just so you don't get like a...


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[Assistant] Just so the Falcons, I mean, because those things tend to get personal with teams where the Falcons are like, all right, like you, you got it back.


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[Assistant] You just didn't, you know, cause like, cause Ridley played well enough last year. He wasn't, he wasn't like an elite receiver, but he's easily the best receiver on the market. You know, uh, we saw, uh, uh, Darnold Mooney get three years and $39 million. Kevin Ridley is going to beat that. And if, if I'm the Falcons, I'm.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's true. I mean, you know, we didn't look at the exact contract, but I mean, I tend to agree with, like, I agree, but I agree with both of you. Like I would be furious if I'm the Falcons and I'm looking at the contract. But if you are the Jaguars, you're like, look, you know, Calvin Ridley waited out.


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[Assistant] And he's like, I gotta look at my options. So I mean like it's, you know, it is, it feels like collusion, but it's also like Calvin really is happy with the Jaguars who wants to go there. Jaguars are happy with Calvin really and want to pay him a bunch of money.


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[Assistant] You say, sign Gabe Davis, but it's like, if you lose count, really, it's a Gabe Davis, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk. Yeah, it's, it's, it's a lot of twos.


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[Assistant] The way that the new league year, the tampering thing operates is like the teams that can't announce anything until four o'clock. So it's like at four o'clock, your inbox and your timeline are flooded with announcements. For instance, like the, um, you know, the, uh, uh, excuse me, the Eagles just tweeted out, like we've signed Saquon Barkley. Like, yeah, we've been at that for a few days. Um,


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[Assistant] But it's, you know, now it's like official. And so that does hit back at, who were we talking about yesterday? Where it's like, if you wanted, you could tell, you could tell a team to, uh, uh, uh, Will Lutz.


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[Assistant] Who signed the Jaguars and then was like, nah, actually I'm out, I'm going to go back to the Broncos. The legal tampering period is such that...


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[Assistant] Like, you know, hose over a team completely, which maybe Calvin Ridley is even doing a little bit.


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[Assistant] We touch on Mike Williams released by the Chargers, they say $20 million. Restructure Clio Mac anywhere you think. So, alright, full disclosure. I did a lot of, uh, underdog.


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[Assistant] And the whole concept is, I did them early, I did them often, they go through, it goes up until the NFL draft.


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[Assistant] And it's like, uh, I was like 250k to first place or whatever, you know, whatever it is. It's like, uh, there's a bunch of drafts, but I've done a bunch of them. I have pretty, I'm pretty sure that my biggest exposure of any player is Mike Williams. And the reason I've been doing it.


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[Assistant] Is that I believe Mike Williams and not Kenan Allen because Mike Williams is coming off of ACL tear was the guy that was going to get cut in that wide receiver room.


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[Assistant] I think, you know, Justin Herbert fits more with the, Keaton Allen fits more with the Justin Herbert, uh, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman skill set, you know, sort of offensive approach. And I think that the Kansas City Chiefs are going to sign it.


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[Assistant] Mike Williams, but like, I just think that feels like the spot that he might end up going to on a, on a, like an incentive laden deal because he's coming off an injury. Any thoughts on that?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I think it's, it just, to me, it just makes.


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[Assistant] So much sense for them to try and expand their, their offensive pool with a guy who, you know, again, distress asset.


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[Assistant] You know, you're playing for a title. You're going to get your Patrick Mulholland just throwing you the ball. I mean, like, you know, how much better could it get than all, all of that? So Mike Williams, the Chiefs is my big call.


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[Assistant] Jimmy Garoppolo, I don't know if this is happening officially yet, by the way, Derek Henry official, not that that's a big surprise, we knew that was going to happen. Jimmy Garoppolo and Hunter Renfro, planning to be released by the Raiders.


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[Assistant] Josh McDaniel, Patriots guy, Honor Renfro, Josh Mc, you know, I mean.


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[Assistant] Uhm, yeaah, he looks like, you know, Renfro looks like your cousin, Sully. Uhm, yeaah. Yeaah, I mean, seriously. And so I, I think...


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[Assistant] Not a huge surprise here that, that, you know, you get rid of two Josh McDaniels guys.


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[Assistant] I mean, honestly, like, I know it's stupid, but we did this in the Patriots for years, so I'm going to do it too. Like, the Chiefs!


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[Assistant] Like in a, in a downfield throws and like air yards per, per attempt. It's all shrunk and that's because the rise of the, you know, the two deep safeties to prevent, prevent teams from going over the top.


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[Assistant] And Andy Reid has adjusted his offense in terms of Patrick Mahomes adjusted his style of play. Josh Allen still working on it, but doing a pretty good job of it. Like Joe Burrow had to do the same thing. Like all these guys, they were like, we're not going to let you beat us deep. We're not getting torched by Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. So these underneath receivers who can get open.


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[Assistant] Flowers, give him his due, whatever the kids are saying. Uh, DeAndre Johnson was traded.


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[Assistant] From the uh, Steelers from the Panthers for Dante Jackson.


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[Assistant] Which is an extremely confusing alliterate, like in terms of like, you know, Deontay Johnson traded for Dante Jackson. I mean like that could mess with your head a little bit, right? Uhm, I thought that this deal was really, I wasn't surprised that Deontay Johnson was traded and I wasn't surprised that the Panthers were in on it.


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[Assistant] I was surprised, especially after the Brian Burns trade, that the Carolina Panthers were able to get the better of somebody because they were going to cut Dante Jackson anyway.


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[Assistant] He has not always been a great teammate. There have been questions about him. Uh, Diva wide receiver, but the dude is certainly talented. I think that's a really nice pickup for basically nothing for Carolina.


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[Assistant] Sorry, I was checking out the, the NFL sent out the actual full list of free agents. Uhm, yeaah, I look, I, I do agree with that. I think, I'll, I'll say this really quickly on Carolina. Uhm.


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[Assistant] The Brian Bernstein was a debacle. You know, I ranted yesterday about it and how bad of a mistake it was as a whole. I agree with trading him because you're going to be working, you're only going to be compact for him.


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[Assistant] And I kind of think Carolina's doing okay otherwise. Like, they show up the interior offensive line. You get him a wide receiver. You know, you get another second round pick. Like, you'd have two picks in the top 40.


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[Assistant] I think that's actually a really great point. Like go win five games and have people be confident that Bryce Young can be a quarterback that you can build around. If you do that, then all of a sudden it's like, all right, we stink.


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[Assistant] But we, there is hope. Right now there is no hope in Carolina. And I do think that like, you know,


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[Assistant] I've sorta come around the idea, and I could be wrong here, we'll see, but that...


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[Assistant] Maybe David Tepper's involvement here was basically like, look, I'm not giving him that contract he wants.


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[Assistant] Get the best deal you can get for him. Free confederate didn't trade him before and Dan Morgan's maybe had a little more control over this free agency run, uh, than we think. I'm not saying it's been a perfect off season or anything, but you're short the interior of the offensive line.


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[Assistant] If they're, if they're helping, they're good. That's going to help the tackles. You lose your center. You got to figure that out. But like that plus a wide receiver, maybe you go and draft another one. Maybe, maybe package of two picks and trade up and get, uh, you know, and throw in a future second and go really high up there and get like, um, you know, a Malik neighbors or a Roma Dunze if they fall or something, you know, get some help for Bryce Young.


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[Assistant] Uh, Eric Kendricks to the 49ers. These are deals that were done on day three. The 49ers got better at linebacker and they did that with the former, I believe, first round pick by the.


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[Assistant] Uh, Minnesota Vikings back in the day, all pro. You like to move. Uhm, as Harry points out in the rundown, possible band-aid with Dre Greenwald injuring his achilles.


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[Assistant] Ah, sorry, I thought it was, uh, alright, well some of the, some of these guys...


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[Assistant] Traded to the Jets, along with pick 134. The Ravens get pick 112 and 218. And uhm, the Ravens were just announced. Derrick Henry signing. Also restructured Ronnie Stanley.


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[Assistant] So they didn't have to cut him, and that's a good thing, because if they did, they'd have one offensive line, like really, like, uh, the Ravens offensive line.


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[Assistant] Then right now we have Ronnie Stanley, Malaise Alumelelua, Tyler Linderbaum, who's their 2022 first round pick. Uh, you'd feel good about him, et cetera. But then like they, you know, they got Ben Cleveland and Daniel Falalala, who's a, so you're talking about a bunch of guys who are, you know, mid-round picks that they hope can develop. Um,


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[Assistant] Uh, 49ers got Malik Collins. The Texans get a seventh round pick back. That feels pretty generous for a decent player. I mean, I think we might see a lot of this.


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[Assistant] It'd be interesting to see how much of this we get where sort of the intermingling, the incestuous nature of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree is as wide as it spread, you know, how, how, how much of.


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[Assistant] Cap construction too. I think you look at this defensive line though. I mean, Javon Hargit, he signed for a monster deal last year. Uh, obviously he's a stud and then Nick Bost is incredible. Uh, and then you have enough depth there where you can kind of rotate guys in. Leonard Floyd, a nice little supplemental pass rusher. He always seems to do well in these one year deals. So I mean,


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[Assistant] I don't know, pretty good read here because the defensive line, even though, you know, you think about just a few years ago, you had Eric Armstead and DeForest Buckner and you're thinking like, my God, this, you know, this team is stacked for years. Uh, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer.


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[Assistant] Uhm, Jerry Tillery and Hunter Renfro are all officially released by the Raiders. He just acts as those old Patriots quarterbacks.


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[Assistant] Um, you know, he's had some decent like moments where he's just, you know, he's just a vertical guy. And this is essentially like filling the role that Gabe Davis vacated by leaving, right?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, Josh Allen, as I mentioned earlier, is not shied away from still throwing the yolo balls. And if you look at, uhm, Mack Holland's yards per target,


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[Assistant] I mean the last, yeaah, he has, when he's played full time, like, Philadelphia, when he, you know, like, was an actual, like, you know, out there on some snaps, 10.3 yards per target. When he gets to Miami, 7, 8, 7.3, 8.4 in Atlanta last year. I mean, it's a guy who's, you know, bounced around, but certainly has that vertical threat. Uhm, let's talk about Daniel Hunter to the Texans. Two years!


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[Assistant] That's a, that's a big chunk of change, but I like the fit and, and, uh, uh, Domingo Ryan's offense defense. I mean, this is a guy that's, yeah, it was super productive in Minnesota and continued that trend afterwards.


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[Assistant] Uhm, eight seasons because he was drafted when he was 21. There's like some of these guys were like Tyron Smith, formerly the Cowboys, where maybe these guys have been around forever.


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[Assistant] And it's true, you know, Hunter has been around forever. He was drafted in the third round of the 2015 draft, but he's played a bunch, but he's still not even 30 years old. And so if you're Houston, you're getting a potentially very productive pass rusher. I agree that the upside here and like the stability is better there than it is with Grenard. All right. I'm going to run through these.


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[Assistant] Let me know if there's any sort of cleanup. Uhm, if there's anybody you want, I'm going to do a group of it. If there's anybody you want to talk about, y'all jump in. Otherwise, I'll keep moving. Jeremy Chen to the commanders on a one year, $5 million deal.


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[Assistant] Really something, you know, he was supposed to be a big piece in Carolina. Chauncey Gardner, Johnson back to the Eagles, three years, 33 million. Jordan Elliott to the Niners, two years, 19 million. Josie, Leibacher, Josie Juel to the Panthers, three years, 23 million, I guess.


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[Assistant] The, one of the Mount Rushmore guys of this podcast, right?


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[Assistant] Oh, I was going with, uhm, the Panthers thing, but I, uh,


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[Assistant] I think, I think Jeremy Chen on a one, Jeremy Chen is a really dynamic player. You can move around if you've got a good defensive coordinator and you can like.


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[Assistant] Uhm, you know, when he was with the, I think you saw him when he was with the Falcons, obviously, and then, you know, cause Jerry Chen's been around for a while. So he's seen him, he's seen him some, I just think like going, like, I think he's a really interesting piece in Dan Quinn's defense. When you think back to the, uhm, uh, guy, like the safeties in the, the hybrid safeties and linebackers that he had in that Falcons defense.


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[Assistant] All right, welcome back to Fixie's Podcast. This is going to be a steal of a deal segment where we, you always talk about the big money signings, but it's oftentimes the small, cheaper deals that end up paying off in a big way. You sign somebody for nothing, they end up getting a huge deal. I'll never forget.


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[Assistant] I think this is always like underrated how in free agency, when they had acquired Russell Wilson in the draft, Seahawks had all these young cornerbacks. They had Earl Thomas on the back end and they just drafted and they went out and signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in free agency for a total of $15 million.


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[Assistant] And it was just an absolute steal and it launched this pass rush. It really amplified what the Legion of Boom was and sort of really, you know, like, I just think there's ways you can be creative and free agency without being the big winner and the big spender.


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[Assistant] And this Steel of a Deal segment is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. Make every moment more. Sully, who's your Steel of a Deal?


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[Assistant] You know where my allegiance lies when it comes to the NFL, it's not in Charlotte, that's for damn sure. I'm going to say the steal of a deal, Colby Parkinson with the Los Angeles Rams. Did that count? Go ahead, explain it. Let's see, let's hear it.


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[Assistant] I want to go with Jonah Jackson, but he's had like a $52 million deal like through year. Jonah Jackson is a mauling guard. The Rams have rebuilt their offensive line.


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[Assistant] And it looks like it's gonna be good and looks like it's gonna be dominant in the run game. Kyron Williams, I don't know what he is to lead the league in rushing. I'd probably have his odds right now, but I think that's a good look. And Stafford behind a,


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[Assistant] Like a healthy dominant downhill offensive line with puka nukua. And then you have, uh, of course, Cooper cups still there.


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[Assistant] We got a lot of talent receiver and I think Colby Parkinson can block.


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[Assistant] Sean McVey has watched this guy for two, for like several years. He was a, he was like, I think he might be on Pete Prisco's Better Than List when he came into the draft. A guy with some athletic upside to go like make big splash plays as a receiver. Tyler Higmey coming off that nasty injury late in the year. Uhm, I think that, I think that this Rams team.


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[Assistant] Extremely dangerous on the offensive side of the ball. So I think Colby Parkinson sort of some formations and something they can do might still steal the deal.


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[Assistant] Let's do some day two winners and losers. By the way, uh, we didn't get our, we haven't gotten our big breaking news. Uh, I don't know, we just, yeah, like.


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[Assistant] I just think the Panthers have money to spend and the Panthers are trying to make splashes and put guys around. Uhm, Bryce Young, you've helped the offensive line. You've got Deontay Johnson for cheap. If you added Calvin Ridley,


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[Assistant] And then you have Jonathan Mingo, who's a lot less pressure on whoever you might take at 33 and 39, where it's like, you don't have to get like, you know, you just sort of give yourself a little window where, like DeAndre Johnson, I mean, he can be gone before the season starts.


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[Assistant] This contract, but like, I don't think, you know, when you, when you're training for a guy that's about to be cut and, uh, and you're, you know, and you're, you're, you're, uh,


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[Assistant] You're like basically a 70 round pick guy. I mean, there's no guarantee at all that you're going to end up. Yeah. He's a, yeah, he's a $10 million cap at zero dead cap. I mean, he's getting gone.


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[Assistant] Like if he didn't work out. So I think the Panthers very much could be in on uh, Calvin Ridley. Uhm.


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[Assistant] So keep an eye out for that. What's, uh, give me your winner, Breach.


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[Assistant] Get Chris Tripaso on this podcast right now. The Tennessee Titans have agreed to a one years from Mike Garofalo of NFL media, a one year deal.


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[Assistant] Worth that 3.62 million dollars with Mason Rudolph.


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[Assistant] That didn't really get you, didn't really get the juices flowing. Uhm, I'll say my winner is Lamar Jackson. Yea, I know we talked about the offensive line.


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[Assistant] But he only had, I believe, 240 carries, which is remarkable that that led the league. There just weren't a lot of like bell cows in the league. And really the only two times that you've seen him have a bad year.


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[Assistant] You, you can't run with Derrick Henry like that when you're running from, when you're trailing and you're constantly putting Taji Spears out there and you're throwing the ball and you've got rookie quarterbacks. It wasn't set up to win with Derrick Henry.


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[Assistant] No, I think that's a fair point. And like also like let's, let's note that, you know, this is a team that defensively they signed Metabeekay.


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[Assistant] They still have Roquan Smith. They still have Marlon Humphrey. They still have Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton. They got a lot of good players, but they lost their defensive coordinator. I think people are really high on Zach Horty. He's here to do a great job, but Patrick Queen bounces, you know, David Clowney probably bouncing. Like there's a lot of guys, there's a lot of guys who had really good years that, so you have a first time defensive coordinator.


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[Assistant] That's a, that's a very fair point. Alright, give me a loser, Sully.


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[Assistant] Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely. Don't blame me. You know, I was, I thought about, what did you think about the Char- I, I don't, I don't, I have no interest in fading Jim Harbaugh this year or in this off season. So I don't like call the Chargers losers, but you know, you just lost Austin Eckler.


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[Assistant] I mean, Greg Roman knows him really well, and so there's all kinds of reasons that works, but, you know, the running back room is now like Gus Edwards, Isaiah Spiller, Eliza Dotson, and Jared Patterson. I'm actually, I really like Jared Patterson, but I'm not blown away by that running back room. And this is gonna be a Greg Roman, like,


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[Assistant] Like theoretically run first offense, you lose Mike Williams and you have to, you know, you have to restructure Koyo Mack to keep him.


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[Assistant] And I thought this was an interesting tweet from ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, our buddy and former colleague.


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[Assistant] By all accounts, like this is a loaded wide receiver draft. There are, um, yeaah.


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[Assistant] There's a year, the talk of the eight to eight guys in the first round, I think that's probably a bit of a stretch just because there are other positions that teams need. And I think a lot of people say, Oh, I get a good guy in the second round. Maybe some guys move down. But I mean, like there are 10, like.


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[Assistant] There are not a lot of running backs in this draft. And as a result, there's a pretty good market for all these running backs. Like they all found homes pretty quickly and got, you know, they didn't get like huge money for running backs, but you got decent deals considering the veteran nature of all these guys. So, uh, I would agree with that breach. But obviously a wide receiver named Justin Jefferson. Justin time. All right. That's it for.


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[Assistant] Today's show. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. We'll be back Thursday at four o'clock.


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[Assistant] It's actually, yeaah, it's uh, it's five o'clock eastern time, so go crack a beer. Uh, thanks for watching. That's right. That's right, just in time for a beer. Thanks for watching, thanks for listening. Just a reminder.


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[Assistant] Hit the subscribe button, hit the like button, give us a five star review. For solid, for breach, I'm Brenton. We'll see you guys later.


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[Assistant] I'm going to answer your question. I am surprised that we're not starting with Dan Campbell and Fort Downs because that feels like the only thing.


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[Assistant] Anyone is talking about, and yes, I realize we need to buck the, um,


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[Assistant] The pick six podcasts, 10 year trend of talking about losers first.


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[Assistant] So sure. Uh, look, I think San Francisco.


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[Assistant] For different reasons, the last two weeks, one against Green Bay, I think Debo's injury, Debo Samuel's injury.


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[Assistant] Cause them to start slowly because of how they scripted things out. And then too, I think they came out tight and Detroit came out really just more prepared to play playing the underdog role. San Francisco wanted to sort of like felt it was gonna be like a little, you know, a heavyweight fight. You feel the other side out and Detroit came out swinging like crazy. Um, but eventually what we saw was Brock Purdy playing his ass off.


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[Assistant] Scrambling like crazy. I think 51 total rushing yards. If you don't count the, whatever he did at the end of he kneeled down, uh, you know, he, he ran, he ran the ball, uh, finished with 48 total cause I think he kneeled down, but ran the ball well, delivered some key strikes and


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[Assistant] I don't know man, do you want, do you want to talk about momentum is real?


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[Assistant] Cause it sure felt like momentum was real for the 49ers with.


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[Assistant] All the different breaks they got, whether it was Dan Campbell goes for it all or kicks on fourth and fourth and fourth and go from the three right before the half.


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[Assistant] To, uh, to, to make the score 24 to seven, the lions wouldn't score again until there was under a minute left in the game.


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[Assistant] And San Francisco adjusted well, but they come out, they get a field goal, cut it to 14 points.


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[Assistant] And then when Dan Campbell goes for it on fourth and two.


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[Assistant] Niners get the ball back, go down and score quickly. Immediately. Jamiro gives fumbles. Niners score again. And then they tack on a field goal. And then that final touchdown.


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[Assistant] It'll be a fat. I would, I would say that I would, I will probably be picking Kansas city because as good as the Niners are, it feels like they're a little too lemon bootied breach for their own good. Sometimes in these moments and needed almost needed to be down big to just say F it and kind of cut it loose.


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[Assistant] I just, I was just sort of thinking, look, that's all anybody's texting you're talking about right now is Dan Campbell.


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[Assistant] I think you always, you gotta back it up to right before half when it was fourth and three, fourth and goal in the three yard line. And he told, um, uh, Aaron, it was very told, uh, Tom Rinaldi, one of the two that he agonized over the decision to kick, kick the field goal. I would have kicked because it's the end of the half, but it's also like,


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[Assistant] The karmic nature of not going for it there and then like you don't get any of the breaks in the second half stood out to me for sure.


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[Assistant] No, you're up 24 to 7 and a half with that kick. And he did say, he did say it was a smidge, this is a quote, it's a smidge too far for us. And to your point, Wilson, I think he walked on the sideline, saw where it was. It's the three. And look, the,


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[Assistant] The analytics are taking the numbers that are being run through.


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[Assistant] The stats and information system that's being distributed, like for instance, ESPN's analytical operation is, is taking the number that they get from, from the NFL game stats and information system, right? And it's saying, okay,


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[Assistant] What would you do on fourth and three? Well, if you're Dan Campbell and you walk down there, there's fourth and three and three quarters. Like that's, you know, that could be fourth and three in the game book, but it's probably closer to fourth and four. And so I think that stuff kind of eludes us in the moment as well.


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[Assistant] Point when they kick the field goal before the half.


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[Assistant] Right? Like if, if they go for it and don't get it.


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[Assistant] And then the Niners go down and score a touchdown, even though it was like basically a completely fluke play off of a face mask that Brandon IU ended up catching. It's like, well, that's what Dan Campbell gets for not going for it. However, I liked going for it in the instance you're talking about, Wilson.


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[Assistant] I thought there could have been an OPI there, honestly. Like how you kind of hit, hit, uh, Will Wilber there. Um, breach in that instance, 48 yard field goal. You mentioned going up three scores and I agree with you. Going up three scores is a huge difference.


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[Assistant] For me, it's as simple as Dan Campbell was hyper aggressive all year long and we loved it.


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[Assistant] And when it worked, it worked great. You were rolling the dice on these fourth down conversions. I will be going back and forth on a texture ad with, with me and my friends about this.


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[Assistant] Okay, it is like a huge arguing point that there's no right answer for. Even the analytics, like Seth Walder tweets out ESPN's in-house analytics for it. It was like, it's right on the edge. We're talking like somewhere between 0.1 and 0.5.


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[Assistant] You know, uh, percent added wind probability. It's not a ton. You know, it's fractional. And I think that Dan Campbell has had.


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[Assistant] I mean, I've said it before in every preview that his aggressiveness could flip these games because as an underdog, it gives you a chance to change, to change how your aggression can change everything and give you an opportunity for more possessions. For instance, when they're up 24 to 10 and he goes forward on fourth and two and


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[Assistant] They, if Josh Reynolds catches that you burn two or three more minutes off of the clock and potentially get a touchdown and maybe put the game away. So I'm okay being aggressive there. I thought at the end of the, I thought, I thought that the, um, the third one.


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[Assistant] I would have, I would have, I would have gone for the second one. I'm finally kicking before half. I would have gone for the second one. I would have kicked on the third one.


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[Assistant] And then I wouldn't use my time out at the end of the game. That's where I sort of stood on his. I, but to answer your question, Wilson, I don't blame Dan Campbell for being the same coach, the same guy that he was throughout the year and just catching some bad breaks and losing because of it.


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[Assistant] Oh, sorry. Did I, did you even hear me yell, Wilson, you look the same in both of those? I noticed nothing. You read your mouth giggle. Let me ask you this. Do you think


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[Assistant] That it's possible that the way we view, okay, the things that happened in the second half for the lions, the bad, the punt stuff, the Gibbs fumble, you know, uh, the branded IU catch.


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[Assistant] I don't think that those things happen to the lions because Dan Campbell did or did not go for it on fourth down.


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[Assistant] Like I don't think the mentality of the team changed. One of Prisco's arguments on our text rare was that you got this young team and suddenly they're questioning themselves. And I mean, like this is a viable argument and we don't know. They get, you know, do you, do you guys think that at any point


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[Assistant] The decision making by Dan Campbell calls the Detroit lions to pucker up lemon booty breach, if you will.


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[Assistant] The 49ers weren't going to be held down that freaking long, not with that defense in the way. And frankly, the 49ers offensive gameplay in the first half was just bad. And that the Dan Campbell wanted to keep his foot on the gas and they just suffered a series of what limited schnickets would call a series of unfortunate events.


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[Assistant] The way to answer that for me is that not, not necessarily that you should have kicked earlier, but that, or maybe you should have kicked earlier. You needed to have the three timeouts, even if you were to try and onsides anyway, which I think is a pretty viable case to make that they, regardless, they were going to kick it on sides, try to stop them.


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[Assistant] Um, you, you have to get the points. Do you have to be kicking off with three timeouts in your pocket?


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[Assistant] If the, and again, a lot of this stuff is if it works, that's great. And they've done that. They did this before, I think late in the regular season when they ran on a third down or a fourth down, they did with Craig Reynolds in there. Most people were thinking, oh, he's a pass down back. They're going to pass it here. They run it, draw up the middle scores a touchdown. Well,


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[Assistant] David Montgomery was tackling sort of the goal line. The clock is running. To me, run no huddle or sprint your kicking team out there and bang home a field goal. Even if it's like a 15, 18 yard field goal, whatever it is.


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[Assistant] Get a field goal, run the offense out there and run no huddle, but run a play because you're going to get the play off with over 40 seconds left and have three timeouts remaining.


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[Assistant] You're going to first down, you just kick the field goal and you're down seven and you're, you kick off deep with three time outs left. Like that's not a crazy decision there. Right.


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[Assistant] I would much rather sprint the offense. And look, granted, you've got to, if you call the timeout cause you're like, we're completely flustered. We have to have a play call ready that will score the touchdown. But if you, if you score that touchdown with 45 seconds left and have three timeouts, that's substantially better than 56 and two timeouts.


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[Assistant] And just real quickly, I think it's worth noting like Josh Riddles had a good, good season and he had a great game against the Rams early on his old team, helping them beat, win that playoff game at 75 yards in the first quarter. I think he had two really bad drops in this game.


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[Assistant] The fourth down one is like a seven out of 10 bad drop. The third down one's a 10 out of 10 terrible drop. And again, maybe your confidence is shaking or whatever. You could also, uh, Prisco lamented just while we're on decision making real quickly, lamented the flea flicker and said that it was quote a drive killer. And he said it at the time before like the drive actually ended.


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[Assistant] I mean, I don't mind it. I, yeah, they've been gassing him with the run, but like you call that play and you get JMo, Jameson Williams, like.


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[Assistant] I saw this from Adam Chertoff and I was looking to confirm it, but I mean, I think my eyeballs confirm the generality of it. The Ravens had three runs to running backs after the first quarter.


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[Assistant] They passed on every down. I thought, I think Todd Monkin has been a revelation for the Baltimore Ravens and that offense and Lamar Jackson, his coaching helped Lamar Jackson improve as a passer.


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[Assistant] And I think Lamar was always a good passer, but I think that it, um, helped him flourish as a passer and shut the idiot haters up is that Lamar wouldn't go like running back, please quarterback, all that crap. Um,


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[Assistant] I don't think this is about Lamar in a playoff game. That's a narrative that gets bandaged about way too much, but man, the game plan for the Ravens against this chief's defense.


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[Assistant] Was just not very good and it was asking Lamar to sit in the pocket and throw way, way too much. He had 37 passing attempts for 272 yards, completed 20 of them.


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[Assistant] There were so many times it felt like if Lamar didn't try to get through his third, second, third, fourth read, whatever it was, and just took off, he would have tons of room. It felt like he could run for 250 yards today.


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[Assistant] But the game plan should have been to pound the rock against Kansas City to run the ball against against them.


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[Assistant] And to force my homes into, into being one dimensional, my homes and look.


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[Assistant] There wasn't a point. There wasn't a point. There was a touchdown scored after the 10 minute mark of the second quarter in this game. Both even stepped up in a huge way. Mahomes, those first two drives, those first two touchdown drives was magnificent.


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[Assistant] That was F you for making me a dog. I'll win on the road. Mahomes started 11 of 11. He was incredible.


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[Assistant] But then the Ravens defense adjusted. They completely shut down the chiefs. And if you old Kansas city and Patrick Mahomes to 17 points in the AFC championship game, you need to, you need to win that game. And the Ravens should have scored more than 10.


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[Assistant] They had a, they had some bad luck too, the Zayflower stuff. We'll get to that in a minute, but.


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[Assistant] I thought the game plan in general from Baltimore and offense was very poor and it didn't adjust. They didn't adjust at all. It didn't change. And that was the difference for me in this game.


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[Assistant] I mean, it might be Donald and Ben Johnson. I mean, it sucks because their team, you know, you lose the championship game and you're probably losing like two of your most important coordinators.


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[Assistant] Um, I, I, I noticed, uh, somebody in the chat was lamenting the, uh, the lack of credit we gave to the chief Stevens. Chief Stevens was awesome. Chief Stevens played really well.


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[Assistant] You, I mean, so the, the five is a 10 in a span for, and I appreciate the retweet breach. I noticed that, um, breach bump. Uh, the timidest man for Zay flowers. He catches this long pass, does like seven crazy moves and say flowers is going to be awesome. He's a, he's a great player.


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[Assistant] Incredible rookie season. Uh, I mean the two teams who lost by the way, uh, in the championship games had, you know, a lot of rookie contributors, uh, or at least, you know, on offense and the lions would report in Jamiro Gibbs.


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[Assistant] I agree. It didn't matter technically because like immediately after he got a 14 yard completion that sort of wiped it out, but it would have been nice to have that for a touchdown.


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[Assistant] Then Rashad or Rashad Bateman maybe had to catch in between there. And then he gets down the one, but as he's diving in, Lideria Sneak was flying out of nowhere and hits the ball and knocks it out. And I'm not saying that Lideria Sneak was more motivated to create a turnover because of the taunting, but this was a rookie mistake.


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[Assistant] In a, in a, in a similar vein to Dan Campbell's fourth and two decision or fourth down decision making, it felt like because of when it happened and what happened afterwards that it sort of spurred on the, your, the opponent and, and, or it was just like, it was just that sort of pivot, that pivotal moment that kind of felt like it changed things.


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[Assistant] If Lamar would have put a little more mustard on it, it might've. A little more mustard, but likely also threw up his hand as soon as he got released. And you're like, when you see it from that angle, you're like, oh, he's in single coverage running up the scene and he's, and it's like two defenders converge there.


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[Assistant] I think they're trying to draw a, uh, encroachment penalty, like offsides penalty, whatever you want to call it. And, um, the referees in order to prevent them


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[Assistant] They would be like, Oh, smart move. You should do this. Called a personal foul penalty on it. Well, he jacked them up. I think that's why I called it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's like.


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[Assistant] He goes just run off sides though. But then like then you're, I think you can decline it.


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[Assistant] We've talked about this before, I think. At any rate, yeah, it was a really smart move because you have first and five. If the Chiefs get a first down, the game's over. So what you want to do is force him to have a longer first down, no matter the cost. And so even if you were, even if you're like, I'm going to get a personal foul penalty, it was still worth it.


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[Assistant] Because you want to try to force the chiefs into a longer first down so they can't go first and five and then pick up the first down. It's over.


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[Assistant] I think that the Chiefs and, you know, we talked about this last week, Wilson was like, can the Chiefs just flip a switch and be good on offense? Now they weren't good for the whole game, but clearly that, that, uh,


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[Assistant] Whatever that gear is there for them to get to. We saw that in the first quarter against the Ravens. And I think when you go against a Niners defense with that secondary, you could definitely see a situation where it shows up as well. What this reminded me more than anything of the was the Patriots and how the Patriots would


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[Assistant] Find a way to grind through the season.


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[Assistant] And most years they would have home field advantage, largely in part because they have a tear. They're in a terrible division. The chiefs, the three seats that wasn't the case. Um, they did have one home. Obviously the home game was Miami weird circumstances with the weather.


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[Assistant] This is a Chiefs team that, just like the Patriots, has...


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[Assistant] An incredible hall of fame coach with multiple Superbowl titles and incredible hall of fame, future hall of fame quarterback with


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[Assistant] Multiple Super Bowl titles, multiple MVPs, multiple Super Bowl MVPs, and one really elite weapon.


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[Assistant] At least, right? Whether it was like Gronk or whether it was Welker, like this, like they just always, or Edelman even who would just show up in the playoffs. It just reminds me of that except Mahomes had maybe has a better ceiling than Tom Brady on any given game just because of his physical abilities. And


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[Assistant] Like, I don't know, people are like, oh, Kelsey might, Kelsey might be toast. Uh, the Chiefs offense is done. Andy Reed can retire. They can, they can rip off three straight Super Bowls starting two weeks from now.


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[Assistant] I would say that the first team that won the Super Bowl in, uh, 2018? 2018?


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[Assistant] 2019, 2019, the first thing that won the Super Bowl in 2019, uhm,


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[Assistant] That this, the defense came together in the playoffs, like this offense is kind of coming together and, and so maybe you can make that case, but yeah, I mean, Brett Veach and


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[Assistant] Andy, Andy Reid too in this front office has done a tremendous job of finding ways to improve this defense.


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[Assistant] George Karloftis in the first round. What round was the Jerry Snead? Here's the day three guy. Day three. Exactly. Day three guy. I mean, they have found they've really done.


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[Assistant] The whole argument was the chiefs better get their super bowls now because my homes has got to get paid and Kelsey's old and Tyree kills got to get paid and they traded Tyree kill and they've been into they've been a packed back super bowls without Tyree kill and you have to give credit to the front office for finding a way


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[Assistant] For finding guys in the draft in early rounds and in later rounds who have made major impacts. And that has been one of the bigger differences.


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[Assistant] What's the tougher loss, uh, breach the, like before the game start, you go to these coaches, you go to, you go to, uh, John Harbaugh and Dan Campbell on Sunday morning and you tell John Harbaugh, you're going to hold Patrick will homes with 17 points.


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[Assistant] Sign, were you signing for that? He, he would sign for that. Or, Dan Campbell, you're up 24-7.


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[Assistant] At least it's like you're on the road. Your defense isn't great. The Niners are incredible, but I probably agree with that. Wilson.


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[Assistant] Crazy is I told Devo just put it in Slack. I had just somehow just hadn't looked because we started on the podcast right away after the games ended. And I definitely would have said that the chiefs would be favored. Now having said that.


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[Assistant] Cause I, I think I'll probably pick the Chiefs to win just because of how, I mean, it feels like.


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[Assistant] Uh, 49ers are favorite again. The chiefs, the chiefs have somehow been able to play. No one believes in us like since we just


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[Assistant] I know, but I mean, remember Travis Kelsey going people to brownies. So no one believes in us. And it's like, you've been to six trade AFC championship games, but everyone believes in you and is scared of you. You've been to four out of the last five super bowls.


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[Assistant] I think I would have guessed that the Chiefs were favored. I'll tell you what, I think that this, the Lions in, in Las Vegas would have been insane from a fan standpoint and sort of a, you know, like man on the street, like the stuff you're seeing out and about in Las Vegas, uh, situation.


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[Assistant] And these two teams have been to super bowls in recent years. Obviously we saw them in Miami right before the pandemic. Um, with the, the, the hornet sting player, whatever it was, the tiger hill, the chiefs beat Jimmy, Jimmy G. Um, but 49ers haven't won a super bowl since 94, I don't think.


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[Assistant] Um, the chiefs were trying to pile them up on my homes is there and quite frankly, this should do monster numbers.


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[Assistant] The lion was one or one and a half. I can see this, but she's being favored for a little bit. They're coming back. Ending is a pick and you have this.


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[Assistant] You know, Seahawks team that sort of a budding NFC West dynasty type of your great defense, your young quarterback.


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[Assistant] Uh, we're not, we're not surprised that they're back there. Everyone thought they were prohibitive favorites to make it out of the NFC against the team from the AFC. That's just been there every year for the last few years. And.


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[Assistant] It's like the 49ers are probably the better team, but the chief said my home's just like Seahawks are probably the better team, but the Patriots had Brady. And so I think that's kind of a.


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[Assistant] Kind of an interesting aspect to it. Um, although it does ruin the, I, is this the, I think chief's lions would have been the number one option.


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[Assistant] That stinks now because it was, it may have been cleared out. Uh, no, it's still there. Lions defeat chiefs. Uh, Brinson.


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[Assistant] Let's not forget that we, and we've seen this because we've covered a bunch of these Patriot Super Bowls. Yeah. But you have, not that you get fatigue, but in a certain point, it costs a lot.


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[Assistant] You're like, I'm not spending $6,000 a year to go to the Superbowl. It's really expensive. And the Niners were there four years ago, but the Niners don't have a win in 30 years.


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[Assistant] So like being there for the 49ers to win, like Katie Box and I were talking about this, um, she's like, if the Niners get in.


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[Assistant] I'm, you know, cause like a lot of, some of us are flying out early before the game and I think she was on that in that group. She's like, I'm going to find a way to go to this game.


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[Assistant] That's a really good point. I hadn't thought about that, Wilson. And I mean,


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[Assistant] I think that does matter. Like there's some, a lot of familiarity with playing in that stadium and sort of the nuances that go with it. That's a big deal, I think.


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[Assistant] Maybe for, maybe for next Monday's podcast, when we rank the top 58 storylines of Superball 58, we can discuss that.


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[Assistant] So I said this after the first Chief Super Bowl. It just reminded me of Phil Mickelson winning his first major and how, no, I mean like Andy Reid won the first one.


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[Assistant] There's no longer the pressure of being the guy who didn't have like the greatest coach who didn't have a Super Bowl and like when he retired without a Super Bowl and now he just has, he's got another 10 years of Patrick Mahomes.


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[Assistant] I don't think it's crazy at all if Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes retire and they have put both Bill Belichick and Tom Brady into second place at the, like firmly in the second place, the same way that that Brady and Belichick did it to Bill Walsh.


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[Assistant] Maybe Bo Walsh did it to Joe Montana for sure in terms of like saying like these guys are the greatest of all time and you're going to win this one. What would that be? Three in five years. It'd be a very similar start to the Patriots.


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[Assistant] Nice. Wow. By the way, Peter Schrager of Good Morning Football, I think friend of the pod, has


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[Assistant] Predicted the super bowl winner correctly for five straight years and he had, I think chiefs over 49ers.


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[Assistant] He had the Rams winning it. He had the, she was winning it last year and like, you know, there's, if he gets this one, maybe it's either four and he's going on five or I can't remember what it is, but I mean, you know, look, here's the thing.


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[Assistant] Well, I would say that that 47 and a half number is really high for a super bowl. Um, even with these two offenses, I think these two defenses are good enough.


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[Assistant] That you will see that number tick down a little bit. I'll say 46 is what it closes out. So I would lean towards the under. Um, and I also think again, that reminds me of Seahawks Patriots Superbowl 49 out in the desert. I think we see this close a pick them. There is no way in hell you will see this line yet.