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[Assistant] Phil just knew when to walk away. Belichick didn't know. Belichick thought it was him and not Brady as opposed to the combination.


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[Assistant] So I think Pittsburgh and Buffalo ended up flip-flopping.


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[Assistant] Uh, Pittsburgh out. I'll say Buffalo, man. I'm man.


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[Assistant] I want to say Denver jumps up and makes a run, but. They're the Steelers and the Browns. They're the same team. Well, I think they're going to replace one of the Steelers with the Browns. So if I'm picking two teams to get, uh. You can pick one or two, whichever one you want. Well, I think I think the.


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[Assistant] I read about this, um, for cbsports.com, but I think, well, I want to pick Houston. Houston's already in, so that would be weird, but like Houston has replaced Jacksonville at the four seed. I think Jacksonville might be set to go on a tear and win a bunch of games.


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[Assistant] No, no, no. That's why I'm not going to do that. I think Jacksonville has, I think Jacksonville can take the one seed. I think that's a sneaky, sneaky situation. Baltimore had moved to the one seed. If Kansas city loses on Monday night, just worth noting. I think Buffalo finds a way to get in.


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[Assistant] And I will say that Denver finds a way to get as well and falling out Cleveland and Pittsburgh.


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[Assistant] 100% Brenton, that means it's a guaranteed lock. The Browns, the Browns are starting a rookie in DTR and the Steelers are starting the combination of Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada.


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[Assistant] It's a topic for maybe, maybe, uh, marketing down for the Wednesday pod, uh, Harry, but coach of the year is really, really interesting in terms of who could end up winning this year.


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[Assistant] I, before, before Breach gives his picks, cause he's gonna filibuster while he tries to figure it out, I have a hot take. Oh, hot take.


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[Assistant] I say that three of the current NFC playoff teams missed the postseason.


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[Assistant] Green Bay was on a graphic for top five picks in the draft I saw before this week and now they're the eighth seed in the NFC.


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[Assistant] We're due for a Super Bowl draft, by the way. Oh, we got it. Let's do that.


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[Assistant] Um, yeah, I'll go, uh, I'll go first. Go for it. I will say that.


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[Assistant] I also shout out to Tony Pollard scoring a touchdown for the first time since week one. My fantasy team appreciates you as does my fantasy team appreciates Ron Bland. We have Tony Pollard, the Cowboys defense, quite a stack going there. Um, that Prescott efficient in this game, not explosive, just in Cowboys put on the road and just


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[Assistant] Panthers got kind of close there and then they just kind of turned the ratchet up a bit, but, uh, Durand-Blan making plays all over the place and, uh, you'd love to see it.


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[Assistant] They've given up. So they've given up that game to Purdy and then that CJ Stroud record game. I mean, they are bad against it.


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[Assistant] No, over under a number of emergency podcasts tomorrow.


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[Assistant] For a fired coach? Frank Reich is who I'm staring at.


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[Assistant] You can have your aberration games and you can have your little two or three game stretch. But in the end, it all evens out and you become what you are. And Josh Dobbs is a backup quarterback in the national football.


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[Assistant] Here's what I'm doing. I'm changing my offense and building it around him.


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[Assistant] That's a potential there for him. And so I'm always be careful what you wish for. You know,


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[Assistant] There is a lot to, I'll be honest with you, there's a lot to like about Justin Fields. And, and I think if he was coached in the right offense, I think he could be really dynamic.


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[Assistant] Yeah, lower. Okay, here's something too. The Hutchinson hype train has hit a wall. They haven't done anything in a while.


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[Assistant] Thibodeau is playing better than, uh, than Hutchinson and Drayvon Walker by the way.


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[Assistant] So I would put, that group I put Tory Holden, Fred's the running back, Tory Hold the wide receiver, Gates is in, uhm, let's skip over to the office alignment for a second. Uh, the DBs, yeah, I don't


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[Assistant] No, for me, right now, if I had to pick one, I'd pick Darren Woodson, but not right now. The linebackers, no. And then defensive end.


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[Assistant] Willie Anderson never gets the do he deserve for being one of the great all time right tackles who ever played the game. And that's why he doesn't get the do he deserve because he played right tackles.


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[Assistant] What's their yards per catch average for their careers?


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[Assistant] In 1985, when Jim Harbaugh was the quarterback in Arizona State beat him, and I was sitting among the Michigan fans, and I sang, Shem Beckler's one in seven, Shem Beckler's one in seven, Shem Beckler's one in seven in the Rose Bowl, and some old lady pushed me down the steps.


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[Assistant] It's not just the golf course. It's like the golf course, the story behind how they built it. Dana Fry, their designer, spent as much money on dynamite to shape that course as any place in the state.


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[Assistant] Uh, sorry, I'm trying to follow where you're at on this. I was looking at you and the camera, not that.


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[Assistant] Will, I understand what you're saying because obviously as many people will, they'll send you stuff like, I'm not gonna say what NFL reporters, but it's like, wow, does his agent write that for him?


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[Assistant] No doubt and he was gritty, he was tough, he fought through it. You know, you knew there was going to be the ankle injury because you could tell visibly watching him play. The shoulder thing, it'd be hard to, I have to go back and look. I haven't had time yet today to go look, see what hit it was.


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[Assistant] But you really didn't notice necessarily, which is a good thing, I guess, if you're a Browns fan.


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[Assistant] Uhm, but in this case, now it's like you, you gotta spin it forward. And now you have to say, where does this put the Browns? Because...


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[Assistant] Much better football from, you know, Dorian Thompson Robinson. Look who's gonna, it looks like he's gonna be the starter for this week or PJ Walker, who has been the starter.


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[Assistant] That's the biggest issue that I think you have if you're a Browns fan moving forward is this team is good enough.


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[Assistant] Uhm, because like the, the bigger topic of discussion, this came up from something that I brought up talking about on radio. And this is why everyone started talking about it and everyone made it a big deal because they clipped off a portion and talking about the philosophical conversation is, do we question NBA players toughness when there's load management?


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[Assistant] You know, we start playing 18, which will eventually come, maybe even more than that, where some players, and even on Thursday night short weeks, they're just not going to be able to be ready from a Sunday to a Thursday to be able to play a game.


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[Assistant] Correct. Side note, it's one of the reasons why I wish the NFL would look at adopting primetime games throughout the course of the week to provide extra rest for players and not being beholden to Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night and that being it. It's like, well, why not incorporate it Tuesday, Wednesday?


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[Assistant] Uhm, but I think the greater point here is when you have a medical staff that clears you,


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[Assistant] Alright. It leaves too much ambiguity as to like, what's going on then?


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[Assistant] And there's a difference in like how your shoulder feels if it's hurt and banged up versus like you have the potential of not being able to ever play at this level again.


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[Assistant] Because of structural damage. Like, that's not, it's not worth considering. It's, you don't question it. It is what, like, you move on from that.


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[Assistant] I think it comes down to just the miscommunication from the team and from his party as to what the heck was going on. And that's what left everything up to speculation.


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[Assistant] In regards to, you know, toughness and all that stuff, no one's questioning it was toughness when you're a football player. You know, at least they shouldn't. Uhm, unfortunately I think in today's society when there's...


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[Assistant] So it is what it is, but I do think that that wasn't part of the conversation necessarily. It was just the miscommunication or lack of communication


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[Assistant] Being clear about what exactly is going on and that's not the case here. Like the Browns know exactly where he's at moving forward and they know exactly what they have to do moving forward too.


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[Assistant] Uhm, it's kind of a moot point now. It doesn't really matter moving forward because he's done for, I think the frustration, even if there was players who were frustrated, it doesn't matter. I mean, they're, they're, they're not going to voice it. They're winning football team. They've been, they've been right there in the mix the whole entire time. You tend to get players who question that more, I think when you have a losing season and.


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[Assistant] They traded for a fifth round pick. Not only would he have helped them.


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[Assistant] I mean, I'll say this much. The Steelers at the playoffs starting today are in. We don't look at them as an offensive juggernaut.


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[Assistant] Yeah, let me give you a little bit of history lesson here, right? Because the Bills went through the same exact thing back in 2021, okay? Brian Gable was the coach. This is weeks 9 through 14, alright? Remember,


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[Assistant] Uh, Stefan Diggs had got there, I believe in 2020, if I'm not mistaken. And that was where like Josh Allen really arrived. Diggs had a big year. So, so like they're starting to roll now. Like there's, you're looking at the bills like, oh, is this the contender to the Kansas City Chiefs? So.


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[Assistant] They had 13 turnovers offensively. They were averaging 360 yards per game offensively and 22 points per game. This sounds familiar. Let's fast forward to 2023. Weeks 5 through 10. 2 and 4 record.


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[Assistant] Uh, elevated offensively. We're not getting as many turnovers on defense and they're giving up.


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[Assistant] Joe Brady on your staff and you can elevate him. So there's probably some other avenues they could have went.


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[Assistant] But this more signals like a bigger picture thing to me with the Pagula family is a big donor at Penn State University. Who just got fired this past week at Penn State? The offensive coordinator Mike.


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[Assistant] I'm just saying if you are a ownership owner of an NFL team, you're a big money donor and you're not getting the results that you want.


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[Assistant] Because eventually like those hits add up and freak accents happen and all that stuff. And...


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[Assistant] I just, I wonder if, depending on how the rest of the season goes, like, I remember when I went to play for Ty Willingham,


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[Assistant] And that was the first coach that got fired that I was the starting quarterback for, and I felt completely responsible for it to this day. I felt guilty about it. And that, that one hit me the most because


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[Assistant] I always like reflect back on that and looking at the partnership.


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[Assistant] With your opposite coordinator and with the head coach in that case and.


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[Assistant] They were, I mean, they're a three and three team over the last six and hey, they ended up winning a close one versus Denver coming off the buy. Like we make all these reasons on the outside as to why they won that game. And instead, because of the loss and the way they lost,


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[Assistant] Man, I think more organizations hurt themselves by blowing things up instead of making


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[Assistant] You gotta turn the rudder a bit. It takes a little minute before you start correcting it. Sometimes you over correct. You gotta go a little bit back the other way. It's not like a straight line. And I think that's the hard thing for Buffalo right now is.


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[Assistant] Blow things up, you push yourself even further back from having the ultimate success that you want to. And that's my concern and worry for I think Josh Allen, for you know, Sean McDermott, really that entire organization. All right, let's do some rapid fire.


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[Assistant] I thought it was Bravens and 49ers. Can't be chiefs and raiders. Oh, that's right. My bad. Yeah. Ravens, Ravens, 49ers.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean look, I picked the Jets before the season. Uhm, I think the Dolphins are the team that probably makes it now. Gotta make that correction without A-Rod coming back. It just, unfortunately, if Rodgers is there, probably a different story, but not amazing.


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[Assistant] The 12 point favorites of the, of the Raiders. Uhm, don't worry.


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[Assistant] I picked Jags before the season, I'll have to stick with them, but Texas is a legitimate playoff team.


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[Assistant] On the next NFL Monday QB, with only a month left on the regular season calendar, the week 14 slate is filled with divisional rivalries. Go under center on the only NFL show all about quarterbacks. Monday on CBS Sports Network.


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[Assistant] You appreciate this, Pete. Ron Howard and his extremely ugly brother who works all the time in his great movies, Clint Howard.


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[Assistant] Julia Robert's brother, Eric Robert says that they're not brothers obviously, they're siblings. He does a lot of acting, but he's sort of the-


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[Assistant] I was telling, uh, producer Harry before we started that the Steelers are gonna gobble them up, but, uh, Nick Corte on Twitter who follows these machinations really closely in terms of, uh, salary cap situations. He said the only teams that have the cap space, the 6.1 million that Princeton mentioned earlier, do not include the Steelers. The Steelers actually signed Blake Martinez today off the Panthers practice squad. That's how up a creek they are.


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[Assistant] That's right. Hey, Ted Turner himself. Are you serious? Bert Bell. I think his name was Bert Bell.


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[Assistant] He fired himself? He had the common decency to get out.


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[Assistant] I, I joked, uh, after this news came out this morning, that this is basically like firing the captain of the Titanic after you hit the iceberg. I mean, we all saw this coming a mile away. What took so long? I don't understand the hesitancy to get rid of them other than the fact that they didn't want to pay a guy for not working.


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[Assistant] Instead, they paid a guy to make things worse. But now, and you said this on HQ with Brady Quinn earlier, Pete, we'll see who Kenny Pickett is because so far he's been bad.


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[Assistant] Let me ask you guys this question that I put to, uh, Joe Musso who, uh, our coworker who is a lifelong Bears fan. They currently have the number one overall pick that would have belonged to the Panthers had they not traded out to get Bryce.


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[Assistant] I know. I'll go with you first, Pete, because I want to hear what you have to think about this.


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[Assistant] What if Omar Khan, the GM of the Steelers, calls Ryan Poles at the end of the season and says, I will give you two first round picks and TJ Watt for the number one overall pick. What do you say?


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[Assistant] If I'm the Bears? And the Bears also have the fourth pick right now too, by the way. Their own pick.


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[Assistant] Alright, so everyone's on board with that trade. We'll see if Omar pulls a trigger.


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[Assistant] Mike Sullivan, who is a, uh, he was with the Giants with Coughlin back in the day. He was with the Giants, Coughlin, Eli. He, he was his coordinator. He has the two sewer bowls. Uh, he was a QB coach here. He's been in the league forever. His background is he, he was a, uh, army. I think he was an army. West Point.


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[Assistant] And he also was an army ranger. So if nothing else, he can beat people up. They start mouthing off to him. So hopefully, and I think Pete, you talked about this as well. Just open it up, man. Throw the ball. They don't throw the ball in the middle of the field. Just do anything differently.


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[Assistant] What about this? What about the idea that they sat on their hands too long and trying to get another quarterback in there? I mean, Kirk Cousins is the favorite, but you could have got a number, Jacobi Percett, anybody. Again, the offensive line stinks, I get it, but you could have played better than the current quarterback situation with Zach Wilson and now the season's shot.


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[Assistant] That was crazy, I heard you say that. That's true. It's a 60 yard handoff, hit him right in both hands.


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[Assistant] Okay, that's, I'll just check it. So he has pass catcher.


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[Assistant] Yeah, but the next drive, Justin Watson drops a third down and then he's on punt coverage and he doesn't even see the ball hit the one yard line and you know, it breaches the special teams coach. He's going to kick him, kick him into the.


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[Assistant] You know what my theory is? If you have a ball headed...


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[Assistant] The guy calling plays with a beard, you are doomed. And the Steelers finally cut ties with Matt Cannon, but Matt Nagy's over there dialing up plays last night. And it just wasn't working. That's my theory.


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[Assistant] He's the only person that could tackle Pacheco. He was coming downhill, look, he was shot out of a cannon.


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[Assistant] You just can't, you can't let yourself get to that point. I mean, you can be angry and all that, you can't do that publicly. You gotta go into the room, broom closet and punch the wall and then come back out and be calm.


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[Assistant] What do you say about every game? If Brandon Staley had players that didn't drop passes, they'd be winning too, but that's not what's happening.


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[Assistant] Oh yeaah, they're out. I thought they were just doing Pete cause he's gotta go. They're out. Their quarterback situation is worse than the Steelers somehow.


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[Assistant] Yeah, they all come back. They all come back to the broken clock theory.


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[Assistant] We'll see if old, uh, shiny object guy can help himself. Mark Davis.


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[Assistant] Who's the show you have, Jim Harville? Well, he, he fell in love with Groot and he fell in love with the Daniels. He gets. Yeah, but he's.


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[Assistant] Breach disagrees with you. He's made a pretty fervent case for why.


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[Assistant] The Colts, and let me add this wrinkle to it. Breach, you can answer since you're the expert on all things Gardner mentioned to you. The Colts schedule versus the Bills schedule. The Bills schedule's brutal. Well that's why the Colts aren't out of it. I think it would be Breach's argument if he wants to make it.


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[Assistant] They don't have Cooper Cup. I know that's one thing they don't have.


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[Assistant] Do you know that was the first time in NFL history that a quarterback got sacked nine times and the team that sacked him lost by double digits? That's your Washington command.


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[Assistant] Alright, breach me and you'll go back and forth.


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[Assistant] Now we're going to do an on the spot blind power ranking. We make it up live on the air breach. And Brenton doesn't know what five things are going to give him or in what order. It's Thanksgiving, at least in the U.S.


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[Assistant] On Thursday, but we're not picking against the spread. Nice one, Harry. We're picking the spread. Oh my gosh. I didn't see that coming. Best Thanksgiving foods. You're ready, Brinson? Let's go. All right. Uh, preach.


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[Assistant] I was still caught up in the sweet potato casserole. I actually liked that. Two is a strong move for sweet potato casserole. Have you ever had that breach?


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[Assistant] I'll go down the list so as not to make Harry have to work on the back end here.


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[Assistant] How do you have your stuffing? Cause Rick's, Rick, Pete said he is, his mom used to put Italian sausage in there.


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[Assistant] Oh, he already said it. As I say, I want you to mix up, you can go worst or best if you want to mix up the order. Cranberry? Cranberry sauce.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I get you, but I'm out. Alright, next up. This is uhm.


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[Assistant] I have mixed feelings about this one as well. I didn't love this growing up, but it could be done well. I think it was just, uh,


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[Assistant] The southern way it was prepared. Green bean casserole.


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[Assistant] If you show up with something without carbs in it, you're not getting in the house is what I mean.


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[Assistant] I didn't love the green bean casserole that much. And the stuffing, like I said, it's like, it's there. It's styrofoam. You can put a bunch of salt on it and gravy and then okay. But, uh, and I'm not necessarily a big dessert guy, but those are heavy enough desserts with tens of thousands of calories. So you don't need anything else.


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[Assistant] So, breached naan desserts, what are your favorite parts of, uh, Thanksgiving that don't involve alcohol?


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[Assistant] I know. That's why he does the podcast laying down when we used to do Thursday nights.


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[Assistant] You had 45 turkey sandwiches by that point. You're in no condition to be turned to podcast.


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[Assistant] Turkey sandwiches, that's right. And I've eaten 257 sweet potatoes with a breech. That's right.


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[Assistant] Cover that game and give me a 5-0, but still doing well there. Uhm, you know, so. Where are you in the standings?


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[Assistant] I think like around 240, tied for 240 or so and top 100 cash, it's 50, 200 people, so.


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[Assistant] Uhm, doing well right on the pace you want to be on at this time of year, just have to keep


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[Assistant] Keep chucking along with some three and twos and then hope that the other people ahead of me, uh, some of them are going to lose. So hope that enough of them lose to get me the money.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm on the other side. I love the Packers this week. You can talk about how trash they are.


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[Assistant] You know who's trash is, is the Chargers coaching staff. I mean, this is going to never be good. I think the market here is projecting them to be still be an above average team because Packers have a great home field advantage, one of the best home field advantage in the league.


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[Assistant] I think that, you know, that, that's your call. I don't think they're quite that bad. They look like had a respectable offense on the road last week, despite a poor game from Aaron Jones. We thought with his absence, when he finally came back, that would be the difference, but he didn't play well and he still had a good game. And then you get those two bad Jordan love picks at the end, which you're never going to avoid with him.


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[Assistant] But uhm, you know, chargers like to keep teams around anyway. Their defense 31st in yards per pass. So while Green Bay isn't Detroit, they're not going to score 41. I think they'd be able to score points in this game. Their defense, you talked about how bad they are. They had a rough, you know, run with injuries. A lot of guys missing last week.


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[Assistant] I wouldn't be surprised if this, if you'd have made this line, Packers minus one, it wouldn't have shocked me. I think the Packers have a case to be favored here. So plus three, I love taking them. It's my first best bet.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I like the, the Jaguars at minus six and a half, even at seven, I would lean there, even though that's what my power ratings make it. It's just a great bounce back spot for them. Second straight home off a bye.


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[Assistant] I think this will be a good bounce back spot for them and they'll put up points. Uhm, they've had no problem beating up on limited teams like this, holding the scoring down a little bit. I think the only worry here is of course the Mike Vrabel underdog magic, but just I have not been impressed with the offense lately and even Jax looking at some pressure on Levis and keep this total under 16 and a half. Don't think the Titans are going to score two touchdowns in this game.


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[Assistant] So I would expect this to be around this number, maybe even higher. If I'm playing this game, it's going to be Raiders team total under. I am a little worried about a sleepy spot. Uh, well, you know, Miami plays the Friday game next a little bit of a short week, more worried about it with a lot of these Thursday teams. There are a lot of big favorites that play on Thursday next.


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[Assistant] The market's telling them they don't have to take these teams very seriously. So we're going to go through with these games, but I would caution people to play a lot of big favorites this week.


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[Assistant] Yeah, so you get San Francisco play Seattle on Thanksgiving and they're 11 and a half point favorites this week. Cowboys are 10 and a half point favorites.


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[Assistant] Cowboys big favorites on the road this week and, and they have to worry about a Thanksgiving game next week. Commanders somehow big favorites this week and they got to worry about the Cowboys next week and, and Detroit is in that same spot too. So it's just a lot of these games. It seems like how are they going to not cover this big number, sleepy spot, a lot of the quick turnaround dealing with the holidays. So I'm a little worried about this week. I think it'd be a weird week.


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[Assistant] So yeaah, so I think they just want him healthy and fresh in January more than this game. So I have him under 66.5. I really like Carolina in this game. I'm probably going to end up playing them.


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[Assistant] Uhm, in the, in the cont about it. I mean, this l is inflated off of Da to veto. Carolina's offe as bad, but not as bad as last week. Defense actua touchdowns a lot in the l


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[Assistant] In their last four on the road, they could win in a bill blowout if they're focused, but again, sleepy spot.


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[Assistant] Uhm, Thursday next road game against the awful Arizona team. It was the same situation. They didn't have to take them serious and they lost that game by double digits. Then you point out double digit home dogs are 29 and one against the spread in the last 30. And then this year road favorites of seven plus are oh seven and two against the spread this year.


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[Assistant] And so that's only seven, now we're talking ten and a half. This is not a great spot to play the Cowboys. If you don't trust the Panthers, stay away from this game, but I would not lay it with the Cowboys here.


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[Assistant] My biggest war with Murray is that he would be limited early by his injury on the ground, but he went 6 for 33, had a long run, had another touch, had a touchdown on another run.


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[Assistant] In Arizona's defense had a good game. I know they're facing an elite Houston pass offense, which sounds weird to say, but, but Houston is like one of the best pass offenses in the league at this point.


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[Assistant] Uhm, but maybe they can slow them down a little bit here. And their defense had been, and the, the Houston defense had been solid before the wild Tampa Bay game, 13 yards for Rush, could put a little more on Murray throwing the ball. So that's why I like the, the tree McBride too, but this could be a look ahead spot for Houston. You know, weirdly enough, Jacksonville is up next. They beat them already once. They beat him again next week.


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[Assistant] They're in the driver's seat to win the division. So you start looking ahead a little bit. It lets the Cardinals back in this game. Uhm, I think there are five and a halfs out there. If we get five and a half, I play that as a best bet. I'm just gonna go best bet Arizona plus three and a half in the first half only. So this line, the fact that I actually did get


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[Assistant] I get to, I get to go second. Uhm, I'm kind of on the fence whether I take the dog here, but I know I'm sure not a lot of people are going to like it. I know Brinson wouldn't like it because it would be the Packers if I went the dog.


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[Assistant] I'll, I'll bypass them. I'll, I'll, I'll put the pressure on the guys a little bit further down the totem pole to pick a dog and I'll go Dolphins minus 800 is the second pick. Gonna come out of the buy focused and healthy after that Chiefs loss. Vegas sees a step up in competition after beating two bad offenses. I don't think they're gonna hang with the Dolphins here. So even at minus 800, I think it's, there's a little bit of value there, so I'm gonna throw it in.


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[Assistant] I think everybody in America is expecting this to be a 13-10, 17-13 type of game. And when you're teasing these six point games, when you get a super low total, they're even more valuable.


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[Assistant] You're gonna be hard to come by here. So because we have that available here, it's gonna be the first leg of my teaser at plus seven and a half.


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[Assistant] I mean, they were lucky to beat Cleveland in the first meeting. I don't expect them to have any success offensively really. But with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I don't expect offensive success on the Cleveland side either. Uhm, I would expect that Cleveland would be able to run the ball if they had Deshaun Watson in their under center with the threat of passing.


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[Assistant] They need to be pretty close to average and I don't think they're an average team with that defense. So I agree with this pick. Uhm, I am a little bit hesitant with Tommy Devito. I think the play here might be to wait until end game and as soon as they put Matt Barkley in the-


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[Assistant] Uhm, yeaah, this line has come down because Justin Fields is trending toward being in. Looks like he's gonna play.


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[Assistant] Uhm, at, when it was double digits, I thought this was in danger of being a sleepy spot. If you're playing Tyson Bajan as a double digit favorite, you got the Thursday game up next and Thanksgiving, maybe you come out a little flat in this game.


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[Assistant] I don't think we're going to see that from Detroit here. I think they'll be focused with Justin Fields coming back here. They'll play this game. I would lean to the seven and a half as well, but because the line's come down so far, I threw it in as the second leg of my teaser, minus one and a half. I do think they're going to win this game. It's just.


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[Assistant] You know, Detroit's defense fourth in yards per rush, Chicago's offense gonna have to have success passing and with Fields in his first game back, I'm not counting on that. Uhm, Chicago's defense all of a sudden number one in yards per rush, but Detroit off a back to back 200 yard rushing game.


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[Assistant] So it's strength versus strength there, and I think Detroit can get the upper hand with their offensive line there. Uhm, so yeaah, recent solid Chicago defensive run came against offense that couldn't pass, and Detroit is an offense that can pass 15 yards or pass right now. So I believe that they're going to win this game, uhm, but if you want to be safe because the line's right in teaser range now because of how much it's come down.


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[Assistant] And during the, the losing streak, I mean, the defense was a big part of the problem too. And that was not the case last week against Jacksonville. They were awesome. And I wonder if you've made a big deal about Steve Wilks being on the sideline. I wonder if that actually mattered for some reason, you know, it's, it's a weird thing that you're like, how can this possibly matter that much? But maybe it does for them for some reason.


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[Assistant] The Tampa-based pass offense is a little better than Jacksonville's. They are top 6 in interception rate and stack rate. So they don't, they don't, you know, give you free, free beats very often. You know, they're able to execute down the field.


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[Assistant] Maybe their defense can give Sanford a little trouble in the run game. Secondary held up last week too. I thought that would be a little worse for the Tampa Bay secondary because Jamel Dean left the previous game with a concussion. Figure he's not going to play the next week, but he was back in there.


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[Assistant] I'm also on the under for this game at 40. Jets offense is awful. Zero touchdowns against a bad Chargers team and against a bad Vegas team the last two weeks. Eight offensive touchdowns on the season. Haven't scored in something like 30 drives and that was like a 50 yard rush that wasn't even a sustained drive.


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[Assistant] So even the struggling Buffalo defense can have success. You want to fire someone, fire the guy that's calling the defense. I don't think they're going to get any dead count, but cat bounds here because they haven't fixed the problem. The players aren't suddenly relieved because of the coaching change, because I think they're all, you see with Stefan Diggs, his brother on Twitter, you know, and all the comments he's making.


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[Assistant] So, I don't know, I think the problem is still there, but I think the Jets aren't going to score a ton in this game. Because the pass rush is still good for Buffalo, and Wilson is abysmal under pressure. You just get a little bit of pressure on him.


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[Assistant] I think the offense is going to regress after that because Dorsey wasn't the problem. They had great numbers across the board. I think because of the firing, they call more run plays to make Sean McDermott happy and the ceilings lowered on the offense that had been effective because that's not what they do well.


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[Assistant] So that's going to curve scoring against a really good defense here. I would lean to the Jets at plus seven, even though my power rings make it a little higher because of this firing, because of the conservative nature of the offense, I think it's going to happen. And I think that fits in well with, uh, props play right here.


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[Assistant] Overperforming expectations every time. And the Seattle team, which me and Alex love coming into the year and I still like, they are looking less and less elite by the week.


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[Assistant] Their offense piled up yards against an awful Washington defense, could not get in the end zone, settled for five field goals, had one 64 yard touchdown, not able to sustain drives on offense, which you should be able to do against that awful defense. Seattle's defense ranked very highly earlier in the year, down down to 15th in yards per play.


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[Assistant] 30th on 3rd down, 29th in the red zone. I think they could struggle against some legit offenses and the Rams with Matthew Stafford have a legit offense. Uhm, scored 30 against Seattle in the first meeting on the road. Now this one's at home. I think the number's right based on power ratings just between these teams, but because of the history with McVeigh there and the boost of Stafford coming back, I think for the Rams are the clear play. So I'm taking them.


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[Assistant] Plus one, or if you can find a money line around minus 105, you can play that.


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[Assistant] And going into that Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts was dealing with a major injury. Uh, wasn't sure how effective he would be in the Super Bowl, and he was amazing. Like, he was not the reason they lost that game. Would have won the game, except that freak fumble, I think, that the Chiefs returned for a touchdown.


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[Assistant] Really was in it the whole way. So we'll see if it has a similar effect here. Uhm, he has not been running as much, uh, with his knee injury, uh, or has been effective as a runner with his knee injury. So if these extra week to rest for this game, I think it could come out and we see these high, these high, uh, leverage games with these big teams going against each other all the time. Quarterbacks like to run a little bit more and pick up those first downs. I think he could be,


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[Assistant] A little bit more on the move than people expect in this game, especially since he's been dealing with that injury.


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[Assistant] I have Green Bay plus three. I have Tennessee's team total under 16 and a half. I have Tony Pollard under.


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[Assistant] 65 and a half fresh yards or 66. I don't know what, what it was on, on our site, but Arizona plus three and a half first half. I have a teaser Pittsburgh plus seven and a half and Detroit minus one and a half. I also have the jets and the bills going under 40 points and I have the Rams plus one.


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[Assistant] I'll just say this, the Jets defense generated three interceptions and a turnover and it was a 50 yard field goal. So let's not act like they, they look like a stealers out there.


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[Assistant] Hey Breach, I want to make a special team segue so you can ask your question here. Pete is what we like to say, moving the goalposts. Go ahead.


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[Assistant] That's why he's in the media. He gets tired of getting hit. Let me, let me ask you this, because, uh, our buddy Rick Spielin said this earlier today on the old Draft Podcast, that whoever they get, do you get someone?


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[Assistant] Rich, this feels just about right for me. I thought Matthew Stafford played incredible. No Cooper Cup and Tutu Atwell and Puka Nakua, the rookie, both had plus 100 yards. We talked about that on Sunday night. 20? That sounds like a good starting point. And I think, I don't think 31 or wherever they were before was, that was about right. I think the arrow is pointing up as we like to say.


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[Assistant] Two questions for you. Where would you put them number one and number two? If they're like 14th, you think they're gonna be a playoff team then? I think there's, I think there's a chance they're a playoff team. Yeah.


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[Assistant] So, which team do you feel better about right now, the Bengals or the, uh, or the, uh, Bills?


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[Assistant] No, not according to Pete, but that, cause Pete thinks there should be the 85 Bears. But I'll say this though, I think you feel better about the Bills if you're maybe a fan, only because Zach Wilson is in fact going to be the quarterback going forward or unless it's Joe Flacco or whatever. So I think in that sense, in general, I feel better about the Bengals chances.


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[Assistant] But in specifics, I think the bill is being in that division without, although my


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[Assistant] Indeed, it is very much the red flag, and I think you have to be concerned about that, and to sort of prop up Breach's bingles.


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[Assistant] Joe Burrow had all sorts of issues coming into the last three seasons and


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[Assistant] I would imagine Breach, you were less concerned about the way he played week one this week and week one last year against the Steelers where we had four interceptions, I think, knowing that he's going to come around. I don't know if Josh Allen is going to quit doing the things that Pete talked about in terms of forcing the ball downfield, playing hero ball, trying to win with his legs and getting absolutely plastered and losing the ball in those situations.


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[Assistant] Yeah, and how, how could that team is top to bottom? Like I was like, uh, Nick Bosa won't be there or if he is, he won't be ready. Uh, they didn't need him. I mean, Jevon Hargreaves plays on that team, former stealer. He was.


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[Assistant] Played an AM game on their time zone and you would have thought the Steelers had traveled from Hawaii on a red eye and landed at the stadium and played football there the way that it looks. So yeah, absolutely. 49ers Brock Purdy is the real deal and Dak Prescott is basically Josh Allen 2.0 for me.


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[Assistant] Okay, let me ask, let me ask the question. The Jaguars are three. I'm going to ask, I'll start at the bottom. Uh, who should be ranked higher? The Lions or the Jaguars? Jaguars. That's close.


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[Assistant] That one's closer. I think the Lions are better than the Packers, but whatever. Lions are too low at ten, for sure. Dolphins or Jags, after what they did on the road? I'll take the Jaguars.


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[Assistant] I don't know why, cause you have Trevor Lawrence winning MVP, that's why. Uh, the Browns or the Jags? I'll take the Jags there, but only because of the weather. Browns. You think it's the Browns? Yea. I hate the Jaguars. Or you just think they beat the BenQ?


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[Assistant] I would have him, I would have him like between 8 and 10. I would have him 9. Okay, that's fine.


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[Assistant] It may not be your favorite choice after I get to the nitty gritty details of this schedule coming up.


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[Assistant] I went with number 27 on Pete's list, the New England Patriots, who are not.


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[Assistant] 24 spots worse than the Jaguars. Let's be honest here. So New England getting their doors blown off in the first.


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[Assistant] 18 and a half minutes of that game in Foxborough against the Eagles and then they woke up. Bill O'Brien.


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[Assistant] Half-time speech was all about not being Matt Patricia. So you guys need to snap to it. And that's exactly what they did. And look, man, they had a chance to win that game late breach. K. Sean Booty, the rookie did not get a second foot down on that fourth down conversion, uh, deep in Eagles territory. So I was impressed. The defense is good. We knew they were going to be good. The offense was a question mark.


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[Assistant] Uh, the wide receiver was a bigger question mark. Kendrick Bourne looks like the number one. Judy Smith Schuster looks like the number eight. So hopefully he can get his act together. But I was impressed with the moral victory that was the 25 to 20 loss to the Patriots. The issue, of course,


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[Assistant] Is upcoming a schedule. So next they host the Dolphins.


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[Assistant] You better hope for a snowstorm, because typically the dolphins don't play well in cold weather, but it is September. At the Jets, at the Cowboys, and then the Snakes.


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[Assistant] Well here's the thing, I'll say this, Christian Gonzalez, the rookie, I went back and watched all his snaps.


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[Assistant] He had a pretty good outing. Now listen, you're going up against AJ. That's great sack too. AJ Smith and uh, or AJ Brown, excuse me, Devonta Smith. So he, he took some lumps, but he also down the stretch had the sack, Princeton mentioned, and then on the fourth and two to get the ball back, he had the pass breakup on the slant by AJ Brown. That was great coverage.


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[Assistant] The, uhm, slant there. So, they ain't playing the Chargers defense breach. So I think there's an opportunity for them in that game to make some plays if they don't have the stupid turnovers that they had in the first half.


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[Assistant] I think Pete did that because I like Mac Jones and he doesn't and he feels bad about how Josh Allen had an issue on national television.


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[Assistant] How are you doing the rankings? Are you doing reactionary week to week or are you just still projecting long term?


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[Assistant] But they beat the Bills at home, come from behind wins. And lost Aaron Rodgers for the season. As Breach mentioned, the defense was dominant in the second half. I think they have to be above the Bills this week.


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[Assistant] This defense is good. Disregarding what Pete was blabbering on about because he was just trying to make excuses for Josh Allen. There's a scenario two weeks after


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[Assistant] There's, I can't use that word anymore, especially when it comes to Dallas. There's a scenario where Josh Allen 2.0


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[Assistant] Dak Prescott, comma, has a Josh Allen 1.0 performance against the Jets. Now it's in Dallas, I get that, but I'm just saying, that game looks like it should have spread to be, you know, 28.


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[Assistant] But I, I don't know, man. Zach, don't get me wrong. Zach Wilson is, is the wild card. No doubt about it. But if he can just give the ball to Breeze Hall 10 times and throw a bunch of screens here at Wilson, maybe.


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[Assistant] The Giants, I don't know, I don't think they practice all summer, that's all I'm saying.


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[Assistant] Uh, probability they go two and one versus the probability they go three. Now give me the numbers for both of those scenarios, Brenton.


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[Assistant] So I think there's, I think there's a two-thirds chance that they're 3-0.


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[Assistant] And they're just glad in the red zone anyway, the Saints are and, and we'll talk about it when we get there, but the Pittsburgh's past defense is not as good as you would think, uhm, just with their history, so.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I have a best bet on Indianapolis. Uh, Deshaun Watson could play, but it's not like he was great pre-injury.


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[Assistant] Um, Minshew was a train wreck last week and I can't sit here and tell you what's going to get better against Cleveland's defense that's first in yards for play.


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[Assistant] 4th and yards for rush, 2nd and yards for pass, 1st on 3rd down. But it can't get any worse than what he had last week. And, and when Jacksonville scored 37 on them, they really didn't deserve it when you look at the underlying stats for that game for the Jacksonville offense. Indy's defense not highly ranked, but they only allowed 3.8 yards in that game, despite the 37 points.


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[Assistant] And if Deshaun Watson is in based on how he's performed when he was healthy before the injury, I would only make this on Cleveland minus one and a half. So I think we're already getting...


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[Assistant] Out over our skis here with making it three. And if he's, you know, the only reason not to take Indy right now is to, if you think he is going to get ruled in and the line goes up even more, then you get Indy at plus three and a half. Uhm, but since we're recording this show now and it's three, wanted to lock it in now because I like the value of plus three.


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[Assistant] Yeah, total dropping in this game with nobody expecting there to be offense in this game. I was going to lock it in at 39. I refreshed the site. It was 37 and a half because of these 20 plus mile per hour wins and I don't know that I want to take it that low.


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[Assistant] Washington had minus 1.2 yards to play differential against Atlanta despite their win. Only had 193 total yards. Went 2 for 10 on third down. They did not have a good offensive game despite winning that game.


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[Assistant] Turnovers save them there, and maybe they'll save them here because the giants aren't exactly eight.


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[Assistant] Especially with a decimated offensive line, I just can't trust Washington as a road favorite, especially at three points, uh, when they're 24th in yards per play on offense, 27th on defense. I don't know, you can make them favorite on the road. So I'm, I'll be staying away from this game unless the total creeps up a little bit and I want to play the under, but I just can't trust either of these teams with this line.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think the Falcons in a teaser here, the Falcons never win games big, they never lose games big, they are what they are, they're playing feel-well games all the time.


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[Assistant] So I like anytime you get a number around two and a half with them, I like teasing whoever's the two, plus two and a half there. Their offense did have a strong game, minus the interceptions, pass offense looks like it's starting to click, as long as you, you deal with those few, you know, uhm, issues from the quarterback there. And Desmond Ritter has started what, like nine, ten games in his career at this point, so.


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[Assistant] It's possible he gets better and then evens out over time. Tenby's defense does well in the red zone. They could not slow down the Detroit passing offense.


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[Assistant] Uhm, an offense dealing with a lot of injuries on that side. The run defense for Tampa Bay has been elite in four or five games. So you worry about that against Atlanta because Bijon Robinson has been a little bit a little hit or miss there, but they were also annihilated by Philly. So I think if you have an elite run, run offense and elite offensive line,


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[Assistant] You might be able to, to get, you know, what you want to get against this Tampa Bay run defense and the Tampa Bay offense having trouble with good defenses and Atlanta is a good defense, 16 yards for play, second and third down rate, sixth in the red zone.


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[Assistant] And because they're playing better and I like their defense better, I, I'm not that worried about Desmond Ritter on the road. I know that'll come back to bite me when he has no touchdowns, three interceptions and Tampa wins this game, like two defensive touchdowns, 24 to six. But, but I'm going to tease Atlanta up as the first leg of my teaser to plus eight and a half.


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[Assistant] Sorry, go ahead. I just want to say I went, uh, looked at taking his under two. My worry there was he played like 70 something percent of the snaps anyway, and that game got out of hand quickly and they were playing from behind. Uhm, so maybe that's why you didn't get a ton of carries.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and with this game, they're projected to be, to win the game because they're favored. So I think it's a little bit more different game script. So I was worried about putting it in the under of whatever his rush yards are, 53, and then he gets to like 56 on 17 carries. And, and, and I curse myself again for taking another prop that loses.


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[Assistant] Go back to Katie's pick real quick. I think it's like minus 114 or something on FanDuel. So I mean, that was one of the, I looked at it too and that was one of the reasons I almost pulled the trigger on it because pretty low number there for over on this guy on the road. You would think it'd be a lot higher, so.


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[Assistant] Very ugly offensively. Uh, Josh Allen hurt his shoulder in that game. He's going to be playing with this injured shoulder. We saw how an injury affected his, the elbow injury affected his performance last year. Uh, I don't, I want to fully help you, Josh Allen. I don't want him throwing the ball.


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[Assistant] So I'm not a big fan of this defense, even though they shut down a very, very limited, very banged up, uh, Giants offense and offensive line last week.


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[Assistant] And with the Josh Allen industry, I just think they focus on running the ball a lot, especially in these conditions. And you're going to see a lot of James Cook, a lot of Latavius Murray in this game.


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[Assistant] And uh, it's just very, very hard to cover this big number in that type of game where it's going to be low scoring here. So maybe the Bills win this one, but they win it by four, six, seven. They don't win it by eight and a half. So I like Patriots plus eight and a half is the best bet.


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[Assistant] And I'm going to be that easy person and I'm going to take the easy way out and take the Seahawks minus 390 as the first leg of our parlay. Um, Arizona's offense terrible without Connor last week. Seattle's defense impressive versus Cincinnati really should have won that game, which we'll get into in a little bit.


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[Assistant] So I just don't see Seattle losing this game. They're going to be everybody's survivor pool pick. Uhm, and for good reasons. So Seattle minus 391st leg of our parlay.


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[Assistant] Touchdown drive, too long field goals, uhm, but having those defensive backs back for that backfield, uhm, a lot of backs there, but uh, really help them out.


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[Assistant] All the Vegas offense does well is throw. Their run game isn't bad. Uhm, but if Jimmy even plays and he's limited, you know, that affects that and how we throw the ball there.


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[Assistant] So I think the Chicago D, uhm, even though you would think they'd be beatable just by their stats for Jimmy or Brian Hoyer, because they stepped up last week, I think that's the team you want to back.


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[Assistant] Wait to see though if, if Jimmy trends toward positive and you think you can get a plus three and a half or plus four, that's when you want to take Chicago. Um, I think because we already know that, uh, that, um, uh, the field is out, that it's not going to get any more wild on the Chicago students and people aren't going to want to bet them. So if I'm going to be on a side on this game is going to be Chicago. I just kind of want to see if I get three and a half or four.


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[Assistant] Because of who they played, but this is Baltimore. This is a little bit different team here.


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[Assistant] This is a team where you want, you know, your full set of, of, um, you know, offensive players there and we don't know if that's going to be the case here. Detroit's offense struggle with the run versus Tampa Bay and we don't know who's going to be running back now.


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[Assistant] Defense playing really well, but they also just faced Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay. It's not a murderer's row of offenses that they've been facing here, so.


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[Assistant] Um, so I don't know that they've been super tested. So we'll see if the wind is a factor here. If Lamar pulls it down and runs, give them a little bit of a different flavor offensively. I would lean to Detroit side because my higher ratings only make it one and a half. I think these teams are even and I think you only get one and a half points for being in Baltimore. Um, but if injury report looks bad, I'll stay away. So I'm only a lean Detroit right now.


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[Assistant] It's just important to know because we're, you know, we're, we're doing this for the listeners, you guys out there. And so Katie's saying there, she would play the money line over the plus three because she just is confident they're going to win and thinks that's better value. So if you're out there making plays and you back Katie's read on this game, play the money line. But for this podcast, she's going to take the plus three.


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[Assistant] Uhm, the Rams defense seems bad, can't seem bad coming into the season, seem like Aaron Donald and a bunch of dudes. They are 11th in yards per pass and 9th in reds.


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[Assistant] Yeah, a bunch of him. Ninth in red zone rate, eleventh in yards per pass. They're getting it done, like, and with a lot of these guys that nobody really knows.


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[Assistant] And the Rams offense now 18 yards per play off a big game. Cup looks unstoppable, like you said. The one thing I would worry about is the running back injuries. I know running back is a position nobody really values, but Kyron Williams is top five in rushing yards. So, um, so I, I don't know that you just plugged somebody in there and it's going to work, but because Pittsburgh's defense isn't stopping the pass anyway, I think the Rams score points. I wanted to like Pittsburgh coming off the buy. Couldn't do it. I'm leaning to the Rams here.


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[Assistant] Well, good luck with that, Cam Haker wasn't really thriving before, uh, before the transition.


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[Assistant] But the guys they're gonna throw out there might just stink too. Like Royce Freeman and Miles Gaskin. I mean, there's a reason these guys didn't have roles before this week.


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[Assistant] Yeah, Seattle is a good team and people aren't really giving them that credit. They dominated Cincinnati in stats. They killed by that fourth quarter interception that led to a long field goal, but then they had two drives after that where it was turnover on downs when they were inside the red zone where they could have won the game there. Uh, their defense, 19 yards per play overall, as you mentioned, first versus the run.


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[Assistant] They are pretty bad in the situational spots, 30th and 3rd down, 32nd in red zone. I'm not worried about that against this Arizona offense that seemed to collapse without James Connor here.


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[Assistant] They moved the ball a little bit versus the Rams. They cannot finish drives. So I don't think they're going to score touchdowns in this game. I am impressed by Seattle's defense locking down since the, after the first two drives that I came, gave them absolutely nothing in that game. Now that they are mostly healthy, they're already good against the run. They very good depth in the secondary, which Alex and I talked about.


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[Assistant] There's this, this is the type of team that will overwhelm bad teams and Arizona is one of the worst teams here. I have Seattle minus seven and a half as a best bet. Love it as a teaser leg too, but I think there's, I think this line should be at least nine. So I think there's value playing it straight. But if you want to throw it in teasers, throw it in all the teasers you want.


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[Assistant] My other set best bet in this game is Arizona team total under 17 and a half. The fact that we're on the other side of 17 with a defense that's proving that it's one of the better ones in the league. I think it's very good to take this under here as a 17 and a half for Arizona offense that isn't doing anything.


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[Assistant] Yeah, everything here in the matchup says that Kansas City should be favored by a lot more. I have them at seven points better in my power ratings and they're at home. So you would figure that they should be like eight and a half in this game or so. Uhm, but it is just the matchup and the familiarity these games have been.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and, and it's just they're all, or I think the fourth, the fourth game back was a six point game. It's just always close. So I want to love, love the Chiefs here, but that familiarity just, I couldn't do it. Uh, but the Chiefs games are really turning toward like unders at this point. Their offense does not seem in sync. The receivers have not developed at this point. Defense is looking elite.


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[Assistant] Uhm, so I don't, and the Chargers offense looked like a mess against the Cowboys, so I don't know that they're gonna show up and be better here. Uhm, so if I were gonna go anywhere in this game, I'd just go to the Chiefs because I think they're so much better than the Chargers, but that familiarity and the fact that the Chargers are addicted to playing three-point games might come in to anybody that takes the Chargers to help you catch them.


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[Assistant] You're going over the middle and short and you can do that when you have Keenan Allen because you know, just throw him the ball and he's, he's their version of Cooper Cup. He's going to pick you up eight to 10 to 12 yards every play. He's so reliable. So why not just do that?


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's one and a half, but it's shaded to Denver. A lot of ones in the market right now. What I did is I took the money line in this game at minus 118, just a little few cents more than some of these other picks we've been making these minus 115 picks we've been making. So I think it's.


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[Assistant] Fine to take here and I don't really want to deal with the one at this point. Greenmay's offense has been mediocre. I think the bi-week will help them reset. They have been dealing with a bunch of injuries.


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[Assistant] I think the matchup also helps Denver's defense still 32nd in yards per play by a mile. One of the worst defenses we've ever seen for DVOA. Uhm, and their offense continues to rank well, but they just look unimpressive week in and week out. I was not buying into them even though the metrics said they were pretty good after a couple of weeks.


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[Assistant] And uhm, they're just so inconsistent and not able to score a ton of points here. Green Bay's defense, 19 yards per pass, solid versus the run.


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[Assistant] I think Denver caps out at 20 like they've done in some of these games where the metrics have been good, but they can't really push north of 20 and Green Bay can get to 24 plus because Denver's home field advantage frankly has not mattered. We thought it would matter, especially early in the season. It always does. And whatever Sean Payton is doing there isn't working because they lost both those games start the season.


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[Assistant] So I like backing Matt LaFleur here with two weeks of preparation, coming out with a healthier unit, we think, and being able to win this game in Denver. So give me the money line, minus 118 for Great Bay.


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[Assistant] If you get three, I don't know that you get it very long, uhm, because of how great this, this Dolphins offense looks. The New York Giants are the worst offense in the league, 4.05 yards per play. The Buffalo Bills are second, 5.98 yards per play.


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[Assistant] That for the math majors out there is 1.93 yards per play difference.


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[Assistant] Miami is 2.02 ahead of Buffalo. Miami is literally lapping the field when it comes to offense here. They are better than everyone else in the league by a mark of the second team to the 32nd team.


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[Assistant] I don't know how you stop them. I don't know. I don't care who's back on Philly. I just think Miami is going to score points here. I think if they're down big, they're going to cover, especially when you tease the spread up like I'm doing, make it the second leg of my teaser at plus eight and a half. I just can't see this team.


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[Assistant] Uhm, so Philly, a little bit unlucky in that Jets game, minus 4 turnover day, you don't expect that very often. You don't expect Jalen Hurts to throw maybe the worst pass of his career on that pick that led to the touchdown that sealed the game there.


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[Assistant] But I think they'll play well here, but I just think Miami's too good offensively and they're going to be able to keep this within a touchdown within a score. So I'm teasing it up to eight and a half and not even worrying about what happens at the end of the game.


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[Assistant] I have Indy plus three in that game. I don't even care if Deshaun Watson plays. I don't think that line should be three. I have a teaser. Atlanta and Miami both teased up to plus eight and a half. All they gotta do is keep it close like they typically do.


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[Assistant] I like New England plus eight and a half against a banged up Buffalo team. I like Seattle minus seven and a half and Arizona going under 17 and a half points in that game. I think it's going to be a route. Seattle is just too good there. And I have the Green Bay money line, which you can get at minus one 18 at fan.


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[Assistant] podcast and we're looking at week five of the NFL season today. Katie Mox and Will Brinson here joined by sports lines, finest RJ White and Alex Selznick, AKA prop stars. If you like winning picks, make sure you sign up at sportsline.com and use the code pick to get your first month for $1 and RJ something special is going on on the site.


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[Assistant] And why it seems only the Eagles can get it right and also discussing the returns of Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Cup. Check it out on our YouTube channel and anywhere that you get your podcasts.


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[Assistant] Week four was another week, hovering around 500 for the crew here. Uh, once again, our records are pretty dead center. I went two and two, Brinson went three and two, RJ two and four, Propstar's two and two, but he was so close.


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[Assistant] To going into his, uh, Black Jury duty over 52 and a half receiving yards prop.


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[Assistant] Going into the black, sorry. Uhm, alright, how are we feeling about last week?


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[Assistant] Okay, fine. Yes, the only one, Brenton. You're the only one. It is you alone at the top of the board here at 12 and 9.


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[Assistant] Uh, 13, obviously I don't want to be even. I'd like to be in the green, but 13 is my lucky number. It's my birthday number. It's actually my sibling's birthday number as well. So this 13 and 13.


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[Assistant] Feel like it's a good omen for me to go over into the green this week. Uhm, but yeah, to your point, other shows, you know, I'm getting my butt kicked. So you never know. And obviously we know that RJ on Sportsline kills it absolutely every day. Are you still leading on sportsline.com?


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[Assistant] I would also like you to coach him on rapping because I would like to get Brinson into this rap star situation that's happening on.


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[Assistant] Uhm, alright, let's, uh, let's get into the week five schedule. Please note that lines or odds are subject to change all the way up until kickoff. We're hitting these lines about 2 PM ET on Thursday. If you're listening to the audio version at some point throughout the rest of the weekend, so make sure that you check your book before tailing. Let's first start with the early games.


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[Assistant] The Jags at the Bills, technically, but it's, what's it, Tottenham, right?


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[Assistant] Okay, hot sport. Ooh, a hot sport. That sounds like a medieval torture device.


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[Assistant] Yeah, Bill's laying five and a half, this total 48 and a half, uh, Bill's obviously coming off a HUGE


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[Assistant] Blowout win against the Miami Dolphins. Uh, sorry to Harry, our producer on that one. I'm sure it still stings a little bit like a hot spur.


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[Assistant] Uhm, alright, uh, RJ, you're taking the bills minus the five and a half here.


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[Assistant] Uh, I'm riding with RJ on this one, taking the bills minus the five and a half. And I agree with everything that you said to Brinson. This is a way more important game, uh, for the bills than maybe it looks, um, with the eye test.


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[Assistant] They can, they can hit the over on this one, but I think it's going to be mostly the Bills scoring because I'm taking Trevor Lawrence under one and a half touchdown passes through four weeks. He's only had four passing touchdowns total. Uh, he threw for multiple in week one and that has been it. I'm not sure this is the week that he gets back.


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[Assistant] To throw in a bunch of touchdowns here, uh, considering the Jags O-line has struggled at protection and they're up against a mean.


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[Assistant] Passing yards per game this season, uh, it's just gonna be tough on Lawrence, uh, in this matchup.


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[Assistant] So, uh, I like him under the one and a half passing touchdowns.


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[Assistant] I'm taking the Texans team total, over 20 and a half, kind of going back to what I talked about on Monday, fading defenses, coming back from traveling abroad.


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[Assistant] In 2021, post-London opponent team totals were 4-1 to the over.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and if you look at last year, now I couldn't figure out what the team, I gotta, I gotta get in that slack in that, uh, CBS sports research slack.


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[Assistant] But if I look at last year of the four European international games, there was the Vikings and the Saints.


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[Assistant] Uhm, the Bears were able to put 22 on the Vikings the following week, and this is the Bears, not exactly a great defense there. And the Seahawks were able to put up 32 on the Saints. You look at the Giants and Packers. When they came back, Giants gave up 20 to the Ravens, 27 is what the Packers gave up to the Jets. You can see this here. Of all of the things that came back, every single team was at least the


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[Assistant] On all of them and you look at the way that this offense has been clicking all of those stats that you read off at the top here about CJ Stroud. They've scored at least 20 in all of their games so far. So give me the Texans over the 20 and a half just fading the Falcons defense here.


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[Assistant] Alright, uh, Panthers at Detroit Lions. First double-digit spread we've got to. Lions are laying 10 minus 480 or 490 now, uhm, on the Moneyline. This total 44 and a half. Brinson, you, at the beginning of the season, you were all about the Panthers.


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[Assistant] A quick question for, uh, prop stars though and Jameer Gibbs. I feel like he's been very frustrating for fantasy owners. What is your take on props for Jameer Gibbs? Cause his usage has kind of been all over the place.


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[Assistant] Because at some point, you know, the, what is that? The clock is right too. Even a broken clock.


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[Assistant] Alright, I'll tell you who I wouldn't want to be this week and it's the New York Giants.


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[Assistant] Going up against the Dolphins who certainly are prime for a big bounce back here. They are 10 and a half point favorites.


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[Assistant] This total, 47, uhm, and a half, actually down, it was 48 and a half earlier, so the total has gone, I'm sure it's gone down because nobody expects the Giants to score any points here. Uh, I'll start with you on this one, RJ. You were hoping for better things for the Giants last week. This is one where you're not giving them the points.


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[Assistant] Alright, next up, uh, the Saints and the Patriots. This game is virtual pick'em. Saints laying one point total, very low at 40 with that under, uhm,


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[Assistant] Yeah, well now, yeah, that's flipped now over, uhm, the over is now juiced to minus 112. You talked about


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[Assistant] Taking, uh, Derek Carr out there with the injury and what the offense has looked like for the Saints. Of course, you know, New England just got absolutely stuffed, uh, by the Cowboys. Mac Jones couldn't get anything going. But RJ, you like the dogs here.


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[Assistant] Uhm, alright, moving on. The Eagles are laying four and a half at the Rams. This is probably likely going to, in terms of home field advantage, which, you know, Emory has a problem with.


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[Assistant] It's gonna be more Philadelphia Eagles fans there, uh, than Rams fans. This total, oh, it went down 49.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and a half it was at 50 and I talked about this on Monday and I was standing alone and I am standing alone yet again. I'm taking the points with the Rams here plus four and a half. Everything that I have seen.


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[Assistant] On the internet says to take the Eagles in this spot. Obviously the defense is legit. The offense has started to.


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[Assistant] Heat up. I still haven't been sold on this offense. They don't look as strong as they did, uhm, last season. They've kind of squeaked out some pretty narrow wins. I know everyone thinks I'm a hater against the Eagles, but I'm also a hater on the Rams. So it's, there's no hater aid going one way or the other here.


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[Assistant] Uhm, McVeigh says that he's a go. Cooper Cup has been cleared for the practice squad. I think we're waiting to see if he makes an appearance in this game, which obviously that's going to be helpful, especially when you look at someone like Puka, who's likely going to be double teamed a lot that's going to open up the field a lot for them. I'm hopeful that he plays.


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[Assistant] RJ, I'm curious to see what Sportsline says in terms of the splits, because when I was looking at it this morning, most of the tickets were on the Eagles, but, uh, majority of the money.


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[Assistant] Was actually on the RAM side here. I think this has upset all over it. I'm too.


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[Assistant] Uh, chicken to take the Rams money line, but I am going to go ahead and take the points here. I found some absolutely meaningless stats that just make me feel better about myself. There's some coaching stats, so I'll go ahead and read those off to you. Uhm, this season, the Eagles are, well, actually,


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[Assistant] The Eagles are, the Rams are better against the spread than the Eagles are, but the meaningless, uhm, stat that I wanted to say is McBae is 13-5 after having lost two of their three games while coaching in LA. Sirianni 0-6 after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games while coaching Philly. Those probably amount to nothing, but they, you know, further make me feel better about taking the points here.


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[Assistant] Okay, I stand alone on the pod and apparently in the early splits as well, but I'm still taking the four and a half. Uh, when we get back, we are going to talk about the late slate of games, including the Chiefs who are laying four against Minnesota. You're watching pick six. We'll be right back.


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[Assistant] I love them too because give me the Jets money line. I'm taking two risky dogs, so I'm either gonna look like a zero or a hero.


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[Assistant] Dialed in, uhm, and trying to defend their code. And look, Aaron Rodgers is still floating around now. He took this very personal when Sean Payton attacked Hackett. So he's gonna be in everybody's ear, motivating everybody. Uhm, and like you said, historically bad secondary. They allowed Justin Fields to throw four touchdowns on them. Zach Wilson.


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[Assistant] I don't know if he's better or worse than Justin Fields is in terms of throwing the ball, uhm, but the Jets defense is legit. I think that they can limit Russell Wilson, uhm, and I do think this offense might surprise some people, so give me the Jets money line. Uh, now for Sunday Night Football, the game I'm most excited about, and I would say actually most spectators are excited about this one, Cowboys at San Francisco, Niners laying,


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[Assistant] Three and a half, uhm, it's four in some places. So this is a good line here. This total now 45.


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[Assistant] I'm just gonna go, I'm just, until it stops hitting, I'm gonna keep taking it. 49ers team total, over 20.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and a half. I also like Dak to throw in interception. Uh, Niners are 4-0 to their team total through four weeks. They scored at least 30 in each of those games. I know that the last time these two teams saw each other, the Niners only got to 19 points, but it's a little bit different in a divisional round, um, playoff spot than just an in-season game. And I don't think that the


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[Assistant] The Cowboys are going to be able to cause the turnovers that they need, uhm, in order to win this game and, uh, Dak to throw an interception. That's just kind of a given when he faces the 49ers. RJ, what do you think?


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[Assistant] I love it. Alright, that's gonna do it for our show today. Let's take one last look at our bets in the recap. Brinson, you want to read yours off?


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[Assistant] I'm gonna take Buffalo minus five and a half Trevor Lawrence under one and a half passing touchdowns.


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[Assistant] Houston team total over 20 and a half. Fading the Falcons defense there is my risky one. I'm taking the Rams plus four and a half. Nobody believes but me. I'm also taking the Jets money line in San Francisco's team total over 24 and a half and give me a Dak Prescott cookie at Levi Stadium RJ.


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[Assistant] I inspired it by taking the rants. You're like, you know what? No mox.


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[Assistant] Alright, that's gonna do it for the show. Make sure you join us on Sunday with the super friends for their Sunday slate recap. Remember to like, comment, subscribe on the YouTube page. If you're listening to audio only download, follow, leave a five star review and tell your friends to listen and watch the pod. Good luck with your bets. Everyone will see. I'll see you Monday, but rinse will see you Sunday.


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[Assistant] What's up, everybody? Welcome to the pick six podcast, CBS Sports NFL podcast. I'm Will Brinson. I'm your host. Join me, Lacey Aduzable and BMAC. No Brady Quinn. We got Bryant McFadden, two time Super Bowl champion.


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[Assistant] I always hate, you know, I mean, I realize you actually are a two-time Super Bowl champion, BMAC, uhm, and that's pretty awesome, but it's always like...


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[Assistant] Very, uhm, when they, when they, you and I are on HQ together, they'll be like, our two times Super Bowl champion, Brian McFadden and Will Bresson.


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[Assistant] If you don't already, you should, uh, I mean, BMAC, a podcaster in his own right.


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[Assistant] I've said this a bunch, but, um, my favorite thing and I'm, I'm mad that they moved back Canada down to the sidelines because my favorite thing about the Steelers games on TV.


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[Assistant] Is when it's like they cut to Matt Canada during a drive and like there'll be a pass down the field. It's like Kitty Pickett kind of ad libs and chunks went down to George Pickett's and like Matt Canada doesn't know whether to celebrate or not. Cause he's, he's like, he's like waiting for a flag to come out. He looks like just, he's like, I don't really know what the hell that play was. It's not part of my offense.


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[Assistant] Speaking of on the field, Aaron Rodgers is back on the field on Monday night tossing the ball around.


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[Assistant] So like, I got the invite. Now, and this trip was actually planned pre pandemic, I believe, and they had to like kick it back. So like they had, they had planned to go in like 2019 or even 2020, I guess. And yeah, 2020 obviously. And then just like the timing and the planning, they didn't want to like,


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[Assistant] Like, because you're traveling that far. Like, they took two 10-hour flights.


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[Assistant] Like modern, it was like a jungle inside of it and like all kinds of like, they said they had like incredible food. My brother was like doing like a taste around the world. I don't know, I don't know. They're like, how's the farm? I'm like, it's great.


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[Assistant] Uh, but yeaah, I mean like, it would, I think it would be a tough, so they do, they did a, um, a, um, a week.


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[Assistant] You have to, it takes two days to acclimate to like the quick time change. And then they did a week on a liveaboard.


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[Assistant] Really? Yeah. And, um, and they, they go out on the boat, they go out on this boat, they stay on that boat for the week and then they came back and did a week diving around the, like in the, in the resort dive resort area. Um, and yeah, so like,


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[Assistant] It's just not really conducive for somebody who has to talk about football every day for like to leave for three weeks. Three weeks, like a week during the season would...


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[Assistant] I was like, look, dude, you guys let me stay here. I enjoy it. Yeah. Like the house I grew up in. Um, it's fun to hang out there. Big farm farm and high point. Um, you know, I've got to like, it's, it's very enjoyable being there. And I was like, I'll tell you what, I'm, I'm gonna drink your wine.


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[Assistant] Yeah, and so they got a, they got a puppy coming from Scotland too, because that's, because why not, why not have those two things colliding?


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[Assistant] I don't know if there's a difference between the labs from Scotland or not, but, um, they've always had black labs. The farm is called black dog farm. We have, we have like two litters of 11 puppies, 11 black lab puppies when I was a kid. That was crazy.


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[Assistant] Aaron Rodgers was back on the field on Monday night before the Jets Chargers game. Not a very fun game. Uh, especially if you're a Jets guy, boy and the Jets.


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[Assistant] He was seen throwing like a 58 yard pass, um, kind of moving around decently and he was doing some chat and I think we got some video of Aaron Rodgers discussing how quickly he might be back.


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[Assistant] So he said a couple of weeks when he was talking to Darwin James there and Rogers later clarified this remark on the Pat McAvee show and said he was really kidding. Uhm, and I think what he means dues is that.


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[Assistant] By the way, I was just going to say, um, sorry, I, I tried to figure out how to best explain this because so I was on the Darren Smith show with my buddy, Darren Smith out in San Diego, doing San Diego radio. And he said he's like sources close to the show have told us that Rogers wants to come back in a couple of weeks and like, like, like, and I can't,


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[Assistant] He texted with Darren about it. He told me how he found out and I can't really like get into the weeds on like this, like I don't want to, I don't want to pull up Darren's spot by pointing it out, but it's, but it's legit. Like it's a legit like sort of.


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[Assistant] Surprising way to figure it out. And I think it's interesting to note that Rogers, that the jets are planned on December 3rd against the Falcons at home.


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[Assistant] It's after they get, so they have the Raiders, the Bills, and the Dolphins, and then they have the Falcons at home. His birthday is December 2nd. Mmm, birthday gift?


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[Assistant] And like he's doing all of the, so like, I think he could make the case that maybe he's doing this to like try and motivate the team. Like, all right, you know, keep going out there and fighting, like stay checked in. Like I'm going to try to get back if I can. I think, I think he likes the attention. He loves it. Like.


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[Assistant] For him to viably come back in December. So again, you're, you're foreign for you're at the Raiders and not a great time to get the Raiders. You wish you got him two weeks ago, um, at the bills at the bills, the dolphins at home, Falcons in Texas at home. And then you close with like at dolphins, commanders at home at Browns at Patriots, like


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[Assistant] I think that's sort of like the, the Roger State too plays into it. Like remember last year, the defense kind of checked out after it was like, holy crap. Like, I mean, you know, they were fighting, but it was like,


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[Assistant] Public putting it out there and letting it at legal leaking it out there is like in a way to make sure that there's no infighting with the jet like the defense and like that the divas the divas those are stuck was that Wilson for better for worse they didn't they didn't make any changes like they had the opportunity to.


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[Assistant] Anyway, from one injured quarterback to another one who is going to come back, we think this week is kind of surprising. The Cardinals are one in seven.


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[Assistant] Uh, and also just for a fun little sidebar and side plot here, uh, in July, I did a quarterback tiers list and included Tyler Murray in the sixth tier. I remember we had this discussion. Not because Kyler stinks or Kyler can't be good, but because I didn't know what they, if Kyler was going to play or not.


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[Assistant] I'm fully expecting to get absolutely, uh, blistered by, uh, all takes exposed if and when Kyler comes back and plays well, which is why I've grabbed him on all my fantasy teams, just to make sure I can hedge, hedge my bets a little bit there.


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[Assistant] Nevertheless, he's now benched for, uh, Will Levis, be Mac. I'm curious what you, uh, what you've seen, uh, your thoughts on sort of Mike Vrabel who didn't seem enthusiastic about going to Will Levis, but he is, he's a big, tiny old guy, uh, and, and how the Titans will fare with this rookie quarterback the rest of the year.


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[Assistant] Yeah, like if, you know, they're 4-4. If Levis thinks to join up and they lose, like you get, you get, like, he's, he's either going to get you.


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[Assistant] Into playoff contention and you find out that he's your guy or he's going to take you, like shoot you way out of playoff contention and you, and you, and you can go get someone else in the draft. All right, let's take a break. When we come back second half of the season NFL predictions.


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[Assistant] We're back with the pick six podcast first half of the 2023 seasons behind us. I don't know about you guys. I'm curious. I mean, maybe this is like, uh,


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[Assistant] I don't know if it bothers you guys as ex players, but like it drives me nuts that we have a 17 game schedule and there's no like actual half.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] It drives me crazy. Um, so we're talking, we're doing some second app predictions on the, the website as well. Uh, let's, um, let's go through and, uh, and, and talk about who, like readjust. So you're like, I think you could, you could stick to your priors if you feel like you had a good call. Um, but feel free to readjust to anything. So, uh, let's look at the playoffs right now.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] A team who is in playoff, playoff contention right now. And here are the teams in the AFC, Kansas city, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Miami, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, the entire AFC North and then Philly, Detroit, San Francisco, New Orleans, Seattle, Dallas and Minnesota. Uh, let's


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Give me a team, Deuce, that you believe, uh, is in the hunt, or is in the, is in the playoffs right now that won't make it, uh, that won't end up making the postseason.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Yeah, or I mean, you know, and you can like buffalo five and four would be fine too.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] By the way, uh, New York, I was gonna say, uh, the New York, New York Times has a, uh, a playoff predictor with the odds. I mean, I think, I think we do too, but this was just constantly updating and I could find it faster than I could find.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] The sports sign was in my email inbox, but, um, uh, 47% chance to make the postseason, uh, 25% chance to win the division with the dolphins, a whopping 68% chance to win that vision. And that's based on performance and schedule and all that BMAC. Um, there's another team I see that's currently in the postseason.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] I mean, this is basically these two weeks. So like the, the, this playoff predictor has, uh, the Browns at 65% chance to make the playoffs. If they lose to the Ravens, it's down to 54 and losing the Steelers down to, uh, 35, I believe. So it's like these two weeks.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] You better play well these next two weeks because it's going to get ugly in Cleveland if they lose these two divisional games as BMAC points out to be one at four in the division and have a big time uphill battle.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] I would throw, I would probably, I was going to go Cleveland too, but I think Pittsburgh, I mean it's going to come down to Pittsburgh and Cleveland probably


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] By the way, if the Bills lose to the Broncos this week, wouldn't think it's likely, but you never know. That's in Buffalo, right? Yeah, it's in Buffalo, yeah.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Beat the Broncos, lose to the Jets, they would be down to 26% chance to make the playoffs.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] I'll take, like I said, let's flip this on its head and give me a team that's out, that's not currently in the playoffs that you think will make the playoffs, Deuce.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] The Chiefs potentially sit guys in week 18, because like that's the main, you know what I mean? So like, if you, like, if you, like, like there's a, there's sort of a cascading effect there where they could, they beat, they beat the Ravens and all of a sudden the Ravens are behind the Chiefs in the, in the standings and they could end up sitting everybody in week 18.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] He's bothering me if he plays well. Uhm, I'll take somebody, I'll just take, I think, I think somebody in the NFC South can jump up and steal it from the Saints.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Um, you know, uh, both Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, three and five Atlanta, four and five saints, five and four saints haven't looked great. They looked a little bit better. Derek are playing. Okay. But I mean, we got like a plus, uh, plus point different. I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta stole that division or even, or even Tampa Bay.