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[Assistant] Four touchdowns. That's a huge win for them. And thank God that the social media team sent that tweet out about Doug Peterson because it was hilarious.


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[Assistant] What has happened to Brandon Staley over the last three games?


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[Assistant] They took precautions to make sure they didn't collapse just as long as that makes you feel better.


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[Assistant] So I'm sure if Brandon Saylor had a time machine, he would probably take him out in the final two minutes. He may have played the other 48 minutes. Uh, 58 minutes that is.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's weird. Like Brandon Staley, 2022 versus 2021 is a completely different person. Like, you know, I'm not one that believes in alien abductions, but it feels like Brandon Staley has been abducted and is somewhere in a spaceship hovering over the earth wondering why his doppelganger is doing everything the exact opposite that he would do it. It's weird.


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[Assistant] Yeaah, I mean, they played a team that looked like the Jaguars last year, if we're being honest. But yeaah, it's a win, it's on the road, it counts, they're 2-1, it's awesome. I'm glad they're having success. I'm glad Doug's winning. Uhm, it is hilarious, James Robinson had 100 rushing yards, had a 50 yard, he ripped off a 50 yarder, and all I could think was that Urban Meyer benched him last year because he fumbled the ball once. And even Trevor Worms is like,


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[Assistant] I'm going to say two words as to why they lost in breach. You can explain it because this is your area. Special teams.


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[Assistant] Let me, let me stop you real quick. Cause so Sky Morham off the punt, the rookie out of Western Michigan. Um, the very next drive on the punt, he said, okay, I'll get out of the way. They down the point, like at the two yard line. So he didn't even do his job and catching the ball at the 10 or wherever it would have been. And I was like, okay, this guy's in his own head. That's a problem. That's a bad sign for the rest of the day. Okay. Continue.


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[Assistant] I only saw the replay in passing. Would it have been enough for a first down?


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[Assistant] So less impressive when? The Broncos or the Colts?


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[Assistant] You do understand that's the most overblown crap. The Broncos one by one point, uh, and the safety cost you two points. So.


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[Assistant] I was outraged by the way that they showed Patrick Mahomes and, and, and me chatting.


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[Assistant] Again, stop, stop hitting the, the, uh, the pipe there off air.


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[Assistant] Your Broncos breach or tie for first place with the Chiefs? Brinson, I'll start with you. Are you less concerned about the Chiefs or the Broncos?


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[Assistant] What's next? I'm not worried about the Chiefs, the Colts. It's a huge win. They're somehow 1-1 and 1. Uhm, I don't think they're...


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[Assistant] Harrison buckers coming back. Yeah.


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[Assistant] Gus Bradley, special teams coach, they would have crushed him. Unfortunately, he coached defense.


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[Assistant] You know what I was thinking before you get into this? No one in our draft of 20 teams took the, took the titans.


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[Assistant] Breach is incredibly optimistic about the AFC West. Is there, is there a path Breach for the Raiders to get to the playoffs you think?


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[Assistant] So you mentioned Joss McDaniels, what do you think Devonte Adams thinking? Do you think he wishes he were still in Green Bay?


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[Assistant] I mean, look, he, I don't know, there was never any public animosity between him and Aaron Rodgers. And clearly he said, do you want to be with their car, his buddy from college?


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[Assistant] The issue, the defense is an absolute abomination. That's a huge concern. The Titans look like the 2021 Titans the way they played this football game. Uhm, Ryan Tannehill was pretty much efficient. Derrick Henry looked like himself finally.


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[Assistant] I don't know what to make of this Raiders team, other than they're not going to the playoffs. I don't think there's, there's, there's just no way they can go at 0-3.


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[Assistant] Also, also worth noting the Raiders are 1 of 12 on 3rd down.


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[Assistant] Here's the thing. So if you have a top five pick, there are going to be a lot of quarterbacks in this class. Obviously they'll sort themselves out draft wise. You can draft a quarterback that Josh McGales want. You can trade Devonte Adams if the contract works itself in such a way. The thing about the college game now,


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[Assistant] You can bring in these wide receivers and then they can contribute right away. Look, you ain't getting Devonte Adams production out of anybody, but you can draft two or three wide receivers that can come and can help you. And if that's.


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[Assistant] But he played like a, he played like a year and a half. The point is that do you want to go down that road again? If you're Josh Mcdales after having.


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[Assistant] I'm laughing because Sam Bruce Smith in the comments asks, why would you let Josh Mcgahill strap to quarterback? I'm assuming in reference to Tim Tebow. Also, uh, Josh Steichen mentioned, did you see that, um,


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[Assistant] Mcgails and Mark Davis had a meeting and Paul Gutierrez of ESPN tweeted after the game before he met with the media, Raiders coach Josh Mcgails enters the interview room after a lengthy closed door meeting with owner Mark Davis.


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[Assistant] Let me tell you something, if they fire Josh McDaniels, he will be the new Broncos coach 14 seconds after he gets fired.


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[Assistant] I said, uhm, yeaah, there could be a situation where you can draft your quarterback if you have a top 5 pick. There'll be plenty of guys out there. And Breach mentioned, well, Devonte Adams came to Las Vegas to play with their car. And I said, you could even trade Devonte Adams if the contract numbers work out because


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[Assistant] In college, these wide receivers can do a lot of things that they couldn't do 10 years ago. You're not going to replace them on tabs with one person, but you get a first round pick form or a second round pick and continue to try to build a roster that was, uh, laid bare once Mayock slash mostly John Gruden got their hands on it.


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[Assistant] Joe Musso in the chat. Brenton didn't smoke enough to six today. I'm out.


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[Assistant] He got married at Kevin Costner's ranch and it was uh, Yellowstone themed. Really?


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[Assistant] No, all I asked for was a, they had a, um, Yellowstone font.


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[Assistant] Themed hat with an M on it. Didn't get one of those either. That's all I asked for.


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[Assistant] Hey, by the way, shout out to Jeffrey Akuta, who was long considered a bust because he's been injured in recent years. He's been balling out this year and I think he had a lot to do with shutting down JJ. So, um, that's, that's a good sign for, for the, uh, for the Lions for sure.


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[Assistant] It's incredibly disrespectful to compare the Chargers to the Lions, who historically have been terrible in recent years, where at least the Chargers have been competitive.


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[Assistant] I feel like the overall, the 30,000 foot view is that they feel the way you're describing, uh, the, when you get a little granularity, you're angry that they lose stupid games like this, which was a calling card a year ago.


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[Assistant] But it's not all the time. Last week they looked like they were going to let the lead slip and they held on and beat who they beat last week.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that game where they were trouncing them and then Washington came back. Carson Wentz looked pretty good. Turns out he's still worse than Gino. We'll talk about that later. And then they held on and were able to win that game, a game they would have lost a year ago for sure.


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[Assistant] Uhm, by the way, our guy Brady Quinn called this game and there was a Jamal Adams, Jamal Williams, Jamal Williams foul for doing the old, uh, Hinkle McCrinkle Berry. I texted Brady to the YouTube in the middle of the thing. He's like,


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[Assistant] Yeah, Brady actually said during the telecast as they were going to break, uh, that's a lot of fluidity there.


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[Assistant] Yeah, he wasn't, he was, he was not flapped. He was unflappable throughout it all, which I thought was funny. And Jamal Adams is, he's great for, Dana Bailey's great for the Lions. Uh, just unfortunately that he had a good game, good day today too. Unfortunately, they, they got Kurt Cousins, which is.


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[Assistant] Imagine a middle-aged old man counting hip thrusts before you throw a flag. Come on.


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[Assistant] I feel like I always feel about him. Her cousin's the coach, uh, the quarterback, and I'm sure Mike Zimmer was throwing a beer can in his television when, uh, they, he threw that touchdown pass. Her cousin said to give him the lead.


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[Assistant] But again, if things aren't going well, at halftime, Aaron Rodgers is mailing it in.


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[Assistant] Let me ask you this. Let's say it's a Vikings Broncos Super Bowl next Sunday. Who are you taking? Both teams are two in one. Is it in prime time or not?


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[Assistant] It's, eh, it's at 2 a.m. Prime time somewhere, undisclosed locations. So the game could be prime time where it's locally being telecast. It could be in Turkmenistan for all we know.


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[Assistant] That spread would be, that spread would be minus four and a half.


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[Assistant] So, Breach, I have two questions for you. First, uh, should T. Higgins sit down for about a month? Because this is the second concussion in three weeks.


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[Assistant] I mean, he was a ma- he got absolutely destroyed. It was a dirty hit and then he was laying lifeless on the field.


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[Assistant] Sam asked in the comments, is Zach Wilson back next week? I think he will be available. It looks like they played the Steelers. I would bring him back just to, just for more. Have you looked to see what the line with the Steelers, uh, Jets is? It's in, where is it? Pittsburgh. I'm going to say it's a pick-up.


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[Assistant] I don't know, like that's, that's probably a pretty good selection at this point in week four.


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[Assistant] And I'm guessing you try to stack the, the teams to benefit you late in the season and it always blows up in your face.


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[Assistant] No, I mean, you're preaching to the choir here. I don't know what you expect to happen. We all agree with you that Jail Nerds is playing fantastic. Uh, Devonte Smith is fantastic. AJ Brown is a number two, a number two receiver on this team, which is sort of funny. What's wrong?


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[Assistant] Tauncha Smith went for 169. It's a half joke, like they're both one and a half.


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[Assistant] The defense sacked Carson Wentz six times in the first half. I thought they were playing the Bengals for a while.


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[Assistant] I think the play that encapsulated this game for me was when Devontae Smith had one of his many amazing catches. This one down the sideline. Clearly out of bounds and Ron Rivera was too slow to throw the challenge flag. Like he literally threw it as the play had already been snapped and they couldn't overturn it.


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[Assistant] It felt like Nathaniel Hackett was in the booth instructing him on whether to challenge that play, but that, that stuck out to me in addition to the 45,000 sacks, just the ineptitude.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's why David was leaving. He can't stand the fact that you're on the Eagles bandwagon.


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[Assistant] This feels like a Spider-Man meme again, like the rams are just sort of teetering.


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[Assistant] They get a lead and they sort of figure it, they can't figure out what to do. And then Kyler Murray's playing a backyard ball, just slinging the ball over the yard. Crazy things are happening. None of them usually good by the time the game's over.


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[Assistant] Two teams, legitimately, whether it's going to be the 49ers or Cardinals in addition to the Rams that were going to make noise. I didn't think it was going to be like the AFC West. The Broncos are winning the AFC West.


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[Assistant] So Sam in the comments asks, is Cliff the most fraudulent coach in the league? Uhm, Pasmu thinks it's Zach Taylor, but I think, I think it's Cliff.


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[Assistant] Uh, why would that be plus money? Cause it's four things.


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[Assistant] Oh yea, alright. Speaking of which, we have a couple games. Let's do this. Show them some respect.


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[Assistant] 8 of 17 for 106, no touchdowns, two interceptions. He ran for 47 yards and the whole talking point coming in was, I think he completed 28 passes coming into the week maybe or attempted 28. Attempted 28. Attempted 28 passes. It's the same old, same old. I don't...


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[Assistant] I don't think this is all Justin Fields. I think the lack of playmakers around him. Colcomet, I think had two targets in the first two weeks. He had three targets on Sunday.


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[Assistant] Who else? I mean, there's, there's Mooney, there's St. Brown, Equimanius hit a long catch and by long, I mean 20 yards. And that's it, man. I mean, Byron Pringle.


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[Assistant] Or the Chargers, or the Jaguars, for example. I mean, all those teams, he's markedly better than he is now. My point is that, is it Justin Herbert?


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[Assistant] He's not worse. Put Mac Jones on this team and he's, he's, we're having a funeral for him. Trevor Lawrence looks like he did last year if he's played on


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[Assistant] Wait a second, I wanna back up. Breach just said this team doesn't have a ton of talent and they're two in one. You're Denver Broncos everybody, way to go Breach.


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[Assistant] Pete likes to brag about Davis Mills being his guy. Davis Mills and McCorkle Jones. Who you taking?


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[Assistant] The giants are in the playoffs, along with the bears, as we sit here. They can face each other in the first round.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna take the under of five and a half, if it's five and a half. Breeze, are they gonna go over five and a half?


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[Assistant] That's the one three more games this year with that offense that features a quarterback that throws the ball two times a game.


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[Assistant] It doesn't matter. Just continue. Don't, don't get stumbled.


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[Assistant] I saw that Levitsky-Chanal scored a long touchdown. How did Baker look? He went 12 of 25 or 170. That looks like some Justin Fields type numbers.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's blood on my face. I'll just ride with the James Winston back issues as an excuse for another couple of weeks and then I'll just, I'll jump off the ship into the water.


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[Assistant] He's hurt, why not? Let Jameis get healthy. Andy Dalton, it's going to be the same thing. He'll, he'll just be the one taking the beatings behind the line of scrimmage. But if that would make you happy breach for a few moments and by all means let Jameis get healthy. Cause he did say he was feeling some pain before this game. I'm guessing he doesn't feel better with the way the game went.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and, and Brent's talked about how good the, ehm, Panther's Young Defense is.


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[Assistant] Now this was a fun game at the beginning of the podcast we talked about, or I did, said how some of these games have been low scoring and sort of duds. This was actually sort of fun to watch. It was a, uh, shootout.


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[Assistant] They had, it was 10 to 10 at the end of the first quarter. That was not what you expected in this game. I mean, the over, I don't know what it was. It must've hit by 20 points. Probably by 10, yeaah.


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[Assistant] Better than Russell Wilson? Better than Ross, I was actually thinking, don't even...


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[Assistant] Get something else besides Drulock in that trade because you just wasted that person's last traffic by bringing Drulock over here. There was no competition as it turned out.


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[Assistant] He's getting the receivers the ball. They seem relatively happy. They understand the situation. Uhm, fans seem to buy into what Gino did. He threw an interception at the end of the game, but they were trying to get back into it. I get it. Uh, yeaah.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go with the Seahawks, although Marriott, as I mentioned, played well today, and finally Kyle Pitts got involved. I'm glad he was part of that game plan.


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[Assistant] And any of those completions went to Kyle Pitts and or Drake London. And it's worth noting you mentioned Codero Patterson.


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[Assistant] Brits and I were joking before the season started about how, haha, you can't have much of a running game with Cordell Patterson because he's a returner slash receiver. Turns out. He might be the best, sorry, back in the NFL. That guy is crushing it week in and week out. 6-2 running back, just steamrolling people.


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[Assistant] Archersmith could walk to walk into 99.9% of establishments, eating establishments in this country and no one would know who he is.


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[Assistant] Right. Everyone knows who Pete Carroll is. Everyone knows who Mike Tomlin is. I'm just saying he's Arthur Smith.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's all I got going for me right now. So, Wilson's team, Chiefs, Rams, Broncos, Vikings, Miami, all my teams are 2-1 or better than Miami Dolphins are actually, uh, uh, obviously 3-0. All total, I have a-


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[Assistant] I'll total have 11 wins. Uh, Breach has the Packers, the Chargers, the Bingales, the Cowboys and the Steelers. He's got six wins total.


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[Assistant] Brinton has the Ravens, the Eagles, the Colts, the Saints, the Jags. Three of those teams are doing quite well. Brinton has nine wins in the Caleb. The listener has the Bills, the Bucks, the 49ers, the Cardinals, and the Raiders. So he's at six wins tied with Breach.


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[Assistant] And you have the Broncos winning the Super Bowl, which goes against what you just said about the Bengals.


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[Assistant] Well, first of all, Brins, and I've been back for like a week. You've just been avoiding me. We're supposed to do a podcast together. You didn't show up. Uh, you guys didn't invite me on the Deshaun Watson podcast Monday. I get it. I can take a hit, man. But here we are, end of the week. You've been back all week, really?


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[Assistant] Uhm, but this isn't about me taking month-long vacations or you not inviting me on podcasts. It's about Wilson refusing to show up to get his tattoo.


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[Assistant] I don't hate the theory. I don't hate it all. It's like, it's going to be on me and you to pull Wilson out. Cause he gets in, I think at 1130 AM on Tuesday morning, then you have to go straight to what we have to do for work. And so there is not a lot of leeway there and he flies out Wednesday morning.


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[Assistant] Uh, so I guess really we're gonna have to rope him in this Tuesday night, but we have a work function Tuesday night. So it's the time he's gonna be dicey, but you know, Brinson, me and you together with our powers combined, I think we can turn Wilson into Captain Planet, but with a tattoo of Ryan Finley.


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[Assistant] Yeah, so I think there are multiple layers to this. Yeah, I just shot off a story. We're recording this on Thursday that talked about the settlement offer that Sean Watson got from the NFL while they were negotiating that he basically shot down. And that was from, uh, I think Dan Graziano from ESPN reported that on Monday. And it was the NFL said, Hey, look,


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[Assistant] If you accept a 12 game suspension and an 8 million dollar fine, sign off on that. This is done. We'll put it all behind us. We're good to go. Watson's camp said thanks, but no thanks. We're not taking 12 games. We're not paying an 8 million dollar fine. We'll, we'll see where this goes. And so Watson basically gambled and


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[Assistant] He lost because there's no way, like you were just saying, Brinton, this is an appeal process where


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[Assistant] If the NFL was filing an appeal in a case where the NFL oversees the appeal process, you're getting more games added onto your suspension. There would be no reason for the NFL to waste its own time.


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[Assistant] So when you're talking about he's at six games, where does this go next? Well, now that you're in this appeal process, they could try to work out another settlement before the appeals officer and maybe the NFL goes back and says, uh,


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[Assistant] Hey, about that 12 games, you wanna do it? Except instead of 8 million, we're gonna find you 12 million. Uh, and maybe he's like, okay, well, I don't have a choice now because I could be suspended for a year. And one other interesting note, uhm, I think I saw from


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[Assistant] Is because the league apparently does not want the Sean Watson playing in Houston against the Texas. And so that would be the 12th game of the 12 game suspension. That's why it's that number, not 10 or 14. Uh, so if he gets that 12 game suspension,


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[Assistant] So then he comes back the week after the Browns would play the Texans and so that would keep him out there. And then one other thing to keep in mind is that, uh, you know, you talk about precedent and I think it was mentioned that Jameis Winston had the longest


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[Assistant] Uh, and so four times three is get you to 12 where it's hard to argue. You know, I think Wilson and you guys mentioned.


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[Assistant] He's a first time offender, but how can you call someone with 24 cases hanging over them first time offender? It's just, it doesn't make sense. And I think that's the NFL's problem why they want to put more games on this. So I would say right now that I think 12 games is the minimum and that.


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[Assistant] You know, it might end up being that whole year. I think if it ends up being 12 games that Watson's camp does not challenge it, there's no federal lawsuit, but I think if it is the entire year or indefinite, then I think we see a lawsuit get filed.


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[Assistant] That's what it feels like. There's no specifics, but I mean, you know, it's, it makes sense on some levels.


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[Assistant] Right, and real quick on that is we've seen a lot of Browns fans push back. Well, that's how the Browns do all of their contracts. But Sean Watson literally has a clause in his contract that says his guarantees cannot be voided, uh, if he's found to be responsible for any of these sexual assaults.


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[Assistant] I guarantee you there is no other Browns player that has a clause in their contract that says they can keep their guarantees if they are found guilty of any sort of sexual assault. So that alone makes this a different contract improves that the Browns and Watson were trying to skirt him playing any huge fines.


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[Assistant] Right, and real quick, cause if you compare it to the Tom Brady case, the argument there is that, cause the NFL PA, Tom Brady, they never accepted the four game deflate gate suspension. His legal team said Brady will suffer irreparable harm if he misses four games. Cause that's literally 25% of the season.


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[Assistant] The flip side here is that Watson and FLPA have accepted the six game suspension. So as Brinson said, they really don't have any legs to stand on until you get to week seven.


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[Assistant] Also, if you're Deshaun Watson, do you want to delay the suspension? Because if you know the suspension is going to happen at some point.


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[Assistant] And let's say you play a few games this year and then your suspension gets pushed into next year where you're making your base salary is $46 million. Then you're losing out on a crap ton of money. Uh, so I think if you're Watson and you know a suspension is coming, eventually you want it to happen this year and you eventually just accept it because there's no way out of it at this point.


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[Assistant] If, if he gets suspended for entire season, I don't know that he actually loses the money. I think, like doesn't his contract just toll on the, and the Browns have him for another year.


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[Assistant] That actually makes more sense. 65% sure on that. I'm not like, that's, I think.


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[Assistant] Well, in 11 games, if you take that suspension this year, uh, is about 600,000. So a little over 600,000. So you're talking about, ooh, do I want to miss out on $28 million or $600,000? And I think that, uh, that's a pretty easy decision for most people. So yeah, if I'm Deshaun Watson,


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[Assistant] And I know I have to take a suspension and things are not looking good for me. I am just trying to get over with as quickly as possible. I don't want to fight this.


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[Assistant] Uh, NFL players do not have a good track record of beating the NFL in federal court. We saw Tom Brady try to do it and even though he got handed his suspension in 2015 and he was able to push it off for a year, he did eventually serve it, uh, those four games in 2016. We saw Zeke Elliott try to get it pushed off.


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[Assistant] He was fighting and fighting. He played the beginning of the season. And then in November, uh, that year where he was supposed to serve a suspension, he just said, he gave up. He knew the ultimate path was him missing games and


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[Assistant] That's what it is. You can push it off. Maybe you push it off for a year, but it's eventually going to happen. We saw Adrian Peterson, same thing. Uh, so yes, you can fight the NFL, but you, and you can try to delay the inevitable, but it will not happen. You will eventually lose. Uh, and it's because


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[Assistant] Blame your own players association. They agreed to the collective bargaining agreement.


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[Assistant] And that collective bargaining agreement says that Roger Goodell or the person he designates has the final say over the appeal. And that's all the judge is going to see. Look, you gave Roger Goodell that power. He's using that power. What do you want me to do? My hands are tied. He gave you the full year suspension. Uh, good night and good luck, sir. That's basically what's going to happen.


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[Assistant] Well, that's, well, the Browns only thought he was going to be suspended for six to eight games. I didn't think he was going to be suspended for an entire year.


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[Assistant] It's, so if Watson serves some of the suspension this year, not all of it, say just five games, like you said.


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[Assistant] There's 400 pages in CBA, but if we sat here and read through them all right now, it would take four, uh.


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[Assistant] Yes, as Brenton and I just said, Calvin Ridley's contract definitely tolls.


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[Assistant] Well, Watson's side has until Friday to respond to the appeal. So the NFL.


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[Assistant] Right. And then, and then Watson's camp gets two days. So the NFL filed a appeal on Wednesday.


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[Assistant] And maybe even, I mean, we saw them file the appeal on Wednesday this week because the thought is that they didn't want to overshadow the Hall of Fame game. Correct. Or the Hall of Fame ceremonies.


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[Assistant] And so if they have the same thought process next week, maybe they release decision on Wednesday again, because you have preseason games on Thursday, the Browns play on Friday. And I think you definitely want to have the decision in before the Browns hit the field. So absolutely.


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[Assistant] And also, uh, Patrick Walker of dallascowboys.com


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[Assistant] That's also not true, Brinson. Did three questions per team.


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[Assistant] I mean that, can he- Marry a supermodel. Cause he's done- Marry two supermodels, there's a lot of supermodels.


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[Assistant] Yeah, absolutely. I think one of the most underrated storylines off season before the Ryan Jensen injury was that Brady lost both his starting guards. Alex Cappa ditched Tom Brady and went to Cincinnati.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and then obviously Ali Marpit retired, so you're out, already out two starting guards, you throw in Ryan Jensen, you throw in what you just mentioned with the Chris Godwin injury, Gronk retired, uh, and Domica Sioux is gone, him and his six sacks on that defensive front.


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[Assistant] There are just a lot of question marks here, and I don't think this Buccaneers team is as good as they were last year. I mean, lucky for them, they're in such a bad division, I think they'll get to the playoffs.


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[Assistant] I don't think, and it's, you know, the other part of this is because of all this Tom Brady tampering, uh, controversy is that if the buccaneers struggle out of the gate, things could get a little dicey in the locker room maybe.


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[Assistant] Cause think about it, you had Brady talk Leonard Fernet into coming back, correct? He talked Ryan Jensen into coming back. If those guys knew that Tom Brady was trying to jump ship in December to go to Miami, do you think they would have listened to anything he said? Like, man, how could I take you seriously? You were trying to leave the team. Why can't I leave the team? And so...


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[Assistant] Just his favorite, uh, story line this year is the Buccaneers are going to fall off a cliff. They aren't going to make the playoffs and that they're going to be lucky to win nine games. And you look at those first four games, it's at Cowboys.


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[Assistant] Brinton, or uh, Brady has never beaten the Saints in the regular season as a Buccaneer. And then they play the Packers and the Chiefs. So you have, uh,


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[Assistant] Possibly 0 and 4. I would say 2 and 2 is their best case. Maybe 3 and 1. But 2 and 2 feels like probable here. And, you know, what happens if this fucking inter-team slips out of the gate?


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[Assistant] Yeah, but the flip side of that is what we were just talking about where if they're bad this year, guess who's getting blamed? Todd Bowles. And so to come back and have that happen would be horrible for his brand as a head coach. And there's a lot of pressure. I mean, if the Buccaneers win just 10 games this year, I think that their season would be viewed as a failure.


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[Assistant] Right. 10 and 7 and they don't advance in the playoffs. So I think it's going to be tough for him. This is not an easy situation to be in. And I don't think you can really help your brand. Tom Brady is your quarterback. You don't really help yourself unless your team ends up winning the Superbowl. And I don't think


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[Assistant] Yeah, yeah, definitely, but I don't think they're going to do that either. So I don't think that he's going to help or hurt. I think it's just going to be, uh, he had Tom Brady. He did what he was supposed to do. They went 11 and six and they made it to the divisional round.


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[Assistant] And then after that, you know, Bray's probably, he's got one foot out the door. He's not going to be back in 2023, almost certainly. And then Bowles is stuck with who? Kyle Trask, Blaine Gabbard. Then that's when the, uh, that's when we see how good with Coach Todd Bowles.


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[Assistant] I will also take the over. And yeah, I think Camille Kostek saying it means more than Rosenhouse just because Rosenhouse said at the very beginning of the retirement, Kostek said a month into it.


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[Assistant] You know, if Grock has one confidant, it's his girlfriend. And if she's out here saying, yeah, I think he's going to return him and Tom Brady were just playing silly games, uh, with all this fake retirement stuff.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think Ron comes back and you're over under. I like it. I think he plays at least 10 games. I mean, who knows? Maybe six this retirement. He's been pretty adamant about it, but.


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[Assistant] You know, I'm not a big sub person. I don't mind Jimmy John's, but I'm a beach club guy. Just there's too much bread. You can get the flat bread now, which is a little bit better, but it's too much bread. You don't like bread. I mean, bread's okay.


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[Assistant] Oh, I love a waffle sandwich. I will make those.


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[Assistant] That's my breakfast sandwich, man. Put the eggs in there. You know, last night for dessert, I had a protein waffle with a small scoop of ice cream on it. Waffles are everything to me.


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[Assistant] Alright. I should be a spokesman. If Eggo, anyone from Eggo's listening, sponsor the podcast or call me, I'll wear an Eggo shirt. Love the waffles. Love all waffles.


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[Assistant] We saw a small sample size. It was with Sean Payton. And you know, he was highly efficient. You mentioned the five touchdown passes that was on 14 completions. So literally five of his 14 completions were touchdowns. But you know, he only threw for 148 yards. He wasn't asked to do very much. And I think that is going to be the difference. Look.


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[Assistant] We don't even know if Alvin Kamara is gonna be on the field in week one. He's still dealing with this Las Vegas court case where he literally got arrested after the Pro Bowl, uh, you know, cause he had that worn out for his arrest. And if Kamara's not out there, we don't know about the health of Michael Thomas. We'll talk about that in a second. And so,


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[Assistant] James Winston is missing a lot of offensive help, and Kamara is just such a big weapon. Yeaah, I'm tending to agree with you, Brenton. I do not think Winston is going to have a huge year.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna say no. I just like his, he had this ankle injury, these leg injuries and his health is just completely taken a nosedive. We have not seen him on the field in an NFL game since mid 2020.


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[Assistant] And so, you don't know how good he is. He doesn't have Drew Brees. I mean, he was Drew Brees' security blanket out there.


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[Assistant] I just don't know that you can take that much time off as a receiver, come back to a quarterback who's not as good as the one you had and still be as good. So I like, I think he'll still be productive, but I do not think he is still, uh, you know, a top five receiver like he was in 2019.


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[Assistant] If we're looking at the whole entire season, I don't know, but if we're talking about maybe the first six weeks, it's plausible. I mean, they play the Falcons, they play the Panthers, they play the Seahawks. Those are three very, very winnable games. And then if you pull an upset and one of the other three with the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Bengals, then you're four and two. So, uh,


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[Assistant] Maybe they get off to a hot start to start the season, but I don't know that he's gonna be able to get off a hot start and continue what Peyton's been doing by winning, uh, 10, 11 or 12 or even 13 games this year.


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[Assistant] And well, and then also you don't trade. If you like Sam Darnold and you're the Panthers coaching staff, you don't make a trade for Baker Mayfield. So you just, you don't acquire another quarterback.


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[Assistant] I was real quick, I'll say on this is that I feel like the worst case scenario for the Panthers is if they go, if they win between seven and nine games with Baker Mayfield, because you have to decide if you're going to keep them and if you wouldn't


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[Assistant] But like, if you win just seven games, obviously that's not great, but it's a two game improvement over


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[Assistant] What you had last year, but how much money are you going to give Baker Mayfield? Hit him with a franchise tag. You don't want to reward him with a $40 million a year contract when you only won you seven games. And so I think that makes things dicey if he wins three or four games and it's like, all right, we're moving on. We'll find someone else next year. Even want to stay in Carolina.


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[Assistant] Right. Well, and then if they won 10 or more games, then you say, name your number, Baker will give you whatever you want. So.


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[Assistant] Uh, I think it just definitely depends on how they do this year.


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[Assistant] If they win seven, I think he keeps his job. Cause if you're a tepper, what you wanna see


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[Assistant] Is that the team's improving, and if he's won five games and three straight seasons, I think if he wins five again, that gets him fired. Like, we're not a 5-1 team, and that's all you've been doing. The Panthers won five games, three straight seasons, two of those have been with Rull. And so, I think five gets him done, six is Dicey, I think seven he keeps his job.


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[Assistant] Well, let me ask you this. Brown's Panthers, week one. Who wins if Deshaun Watson's not playing?


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[Assistant] Okay, Panther's Giants, week two. Who's your pick right now?


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[Assistant] Panthers, Saints in Charlotte, week three. Panthers, three and oh Panthers. Three and oh. They started three in the last two, Breach. Cardinals in Charlotte, Eastern time zone, 10 a.m. star, without Deandre Hopkins, Panthers Cardinals. Four and oh Carolina Panthers.


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[Assistant] And that kind of story I think would get, uh, role-fired. If that happens again.


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[Assistant] If they were in any other division, I would say no, but the NFC South is just so, it's not bad, it's just mediocre. And so I feel like they could sneak a few wins. I don't know what competitive is. Is five wins competitive? I think they can maybe win five games.


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[Assistant] Where you can't envision them winning. Like I don't think the Panthers really have a chance, but I, there's at least like the small sliver, you could be like, oh right, I could see it being a total shocker and maybe happen. Uh, but no, it doesn't feel like the Falcons have any shots. So no, we agree on this, I think.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I don't think... They just don't have a good enough team. There's not enough talent around him. He struggled with...


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[Assistant] I just don't think that, Mario, this is going to be our, at the end of the 2022 season, people are going to be saying, oh, that's a franchise quarterback, and, uh, he's going to have a hot free agency, and people are going to be out to get him. There's just, like, you have a rookie.


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[Assistant] You gotta, yeaah, that's it. I mean, you, you give Desmond Ritter a chance to sit down, learn, watch the game, and then, once you feel like, alright, Marcus Murray is not doing anything for us anymore, let's, uh, let's put the rookie in there.


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[Assistant] Yes. Yeah, I can see that. I feel like London is talented enough and it's not like Ridley was Hoyo Jones in his prime. Uh, and also, you know, you have Kyle Pitts there at tight end. He's going to take some pressure off the receiving court because teams have to count for him. So I could see Drake London having a big year.


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[Assistant] So imagine how this offseason would have been different if Watson had gone to the Falcons or the Panthers or the Saints or whoever, all the AFC, all the MC cell teams wanted them.


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[Assistant] I'm doing good. It was good seeing you the other week and the rest of the guys. Um, you know, we don't, haven't got to do that too much over the last few years for obvious reasons. So it's good to reconnect with everyone.


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[Assistant] Well, you know, modern football, the improvements teams have made with their travel schedules and everything, that actually has started to come down to the point where when I'm doing home field advantage each year,


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[Assistant] I'm typically making the average team 2.3, 2.4 points. You know, it's actually a little bit less than 2.5. And that was as of a few years ago. Uhm, I made that same calculation going into


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[Assistant] 2019 like I always do and then 2019 was the year of, uh, I don't know if you remember the, there is absolutely no more home field advantage anymore. Teams scored basically the same on the road as they did at home and completely wiped out home field advantage. So it took a little getting used to there.


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[Assistant] So when, when an outlier like that happens, you expect the next year it's going to bounce back. Well, the next year was 2020. So you can't really judge anything against the year that was 2020 with no fans in the stands and all the crazy COVID protocols teams had to deal with. So it was, and in that one, it actually,


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[Assistant] It was about the same home in a way, but it was a little bit better than the year before. You know, I think point two on average points better at home, but it's not something that you can replicate going forward. So really interested to see what would happen.


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[Assistant] Last year, you know, kind of a relatively normal, you still had some COVID protocols in place, but you had fans in the stands, you had relatively normal travel circumstances, and it bounced back some. It wasn't, it didn't go all the way back to 2018 levels. I believe it was in the average team had about 1.6, 1.7 points of home field advantage.


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[Assistant] So it still continued a downward trend. I think in 2017, my numbers were like 2.48, somewhere around two and a half, down to 2.2. Then now if you skip those last two years and heading into 2021, now you're looking at 1.6. So it is kind of a downward trend. Uhm, so when I did my home field numbers this year,


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[Assistant] I put them in that same range of every team having on average 2.3, 2.4, and then you, you change the teams based on how much better they are and worse. And then after seeing that, I kind of took a half point from every team, got it down to around the two point range. Cause now I feel like two points is about the normal home field advantage at this point based on what we've seen the last five years.


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[Assistant] The way that I, the way that I do it is it's a weighted average. So it's, it's, I take 50% weight into last year, 25% weight into the previous year and so on and for the last five years. And the packers are just consistently.


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[Assistant] How well, how, you know, well I performed with that team over the last X number of picks. My Packers record's ridiculous. It's 50, 17, and 1 over my life.


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[Assistant] I think it is because if I'm giving the Packers a bigger home field advantage than other teams, other places are, um, you know, I rate them better at home.


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[Assistant] But it's more like when they're on their road, people still expect them to be as good as they are.


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[Assistant] And, um, I think because my home field advantage number for them is so strong, I'm a little bit more able to pick against them on the road. So I think it just kind of, it's one of those things where maybe it's coincidence that they're the team with the strongest home field advantage, my numbers, and they're the team that I picked the best. But, you know, there's gotta be probably some relation there.


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[Assistant] But then in 2019, they also performed better on the road at home on offense. Uhm, defensively, they're typically much better.


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[Assistant] On the road, 16.6 points per game last year, 24.1 points per game at home. And that has nothing to do with the quarterbacks. They're playing on their side. So maybe that is, um, the opponents, like I said, you go back to 2019. I threw out 2020 numbers from my data because of how weird the circumstances were. I just gave everybody kind of a normalized number there, but.


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[Assistant] And Drew Brees, as great as he was, he is, you know, for his career, he wasn't as great toward the end.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and now they don't have Sean Payton. So I didn't, that's why I didn't want to just give them the benefit of the doubt. It's because now they're playing different quarterback. Now they have a new coach.


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[Assistant] I don't want to just say things you're gonna, gonna go back to our expectations. So some of these teams, just because the raw numbers say that they are a certain amount negative or certain amount positive, I don't just go by what the raw numbers say. I take some logic into account. I look at the trends for, for multi years and see that because my formula is weighted as giving too much kind of weight to a few games that happened last year.


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[Assistant] Um, and just kind of take what happened multi years into account. Um, and so like a team like Chicago, the raw numbers say that they're actually much better at home than on the road.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's tough with them because my, you know, the data goes back five years that with this weighted formula. So it's capturing a lot of what happened with the Raiders before they were in Vegas. And then, you know, 2020 is obviously a weird year. 2021 is finally the first year of data. So you don't want to put too much emphasis into what happened.


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[Assistant] Uhm, in 2021 because it's only, you know, eight games at home, nine games at home, whatever it is. Uhm, and, uh, they did slightly better at home. The defense was basically the same either way. The offense is slightly better at home. So, uhm, it's one of those teams that it was kind of a coin flip whether they're playing on the home or the road. Again, you know, still, still a long way to go with them. I didn't want to put them in the one point range because of that, but,


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[Assistant] Yeah, their 20-20 numbers at home were good, but again, I just zeroed out everybody for 20-20 because of the weird home field, but, um, offense much better at home, you know, about I think 5.2 points better at home in 20-21. And so I think he does play a big part into that. The defense also played better at home. Um, you know, maybe you can credit him with some of that. They're playing harder. They think that they're going to win.


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[Assistant] Uhm, but he's, he's still there, you know, unless, unless his, uh, personal matter, you know, evolves into something else. I know he's back now. Uhm, but you know, if he's still playing, you gotta kind of take into account what happened in 2021 and to some extent 2020 is applicable for this year. So uhm, it probably does take into account.


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[Assistant] That and uhm, that's why they had one of the better raw numbers and I put him at three, one of the few teams at three with teams like Miami. Like you said, Miami, I don't even remember a few years back.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we used to talk, we've had this conversation a few years, you know, at this point, and Miami was one of the best teams a few years ago, you know, and I was like, that's a sneaky home field advantage. For whatever reason, teams come into Miami, maybe they go out partying the night before, maybe it's just that Miami nightlife. It just takes, or the weather, you know, just being so humid there.


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[Assistant] It takes teams off guard and Miami seems to have a really good home field advantage that kind of goes underrepresented. So they're one of the sneaky teams that I, you know, would always play on at home a lot more than other people would.


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[Assistant] It looks like it's back, you know, as of 2021, you know, 2019, it went away for them, but it went away for everyone. Like we said, the home, home and away splits were pretty much gone on average that year.


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[Assistant] Right, and to take one example, Buccaneers at Cowboys, one of the big market games of week one. Cowboys' offense at home is incredible. They were about 7.5 points better at home per game last year on offense, 10 points per game in 2019, and then like another 7 in 2018. It's very consistent, and it's something that you have to figure is a trend at this point.


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[Assistant] They were much better at home. The defense can, you know, has been a little bit less consistent. Uhm, you know, they weren't as good at home as they were on the road last year, for example. Uhm, but that offense kind of carries them, so.


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[Assistant] That plays into the teams that they're playing. Maybe make them a little bit more, you know, of a home field advantage at home. Also plays into the totals. If you're going to play a Cowboys total, much better to play it at home when you go the over. Much better to play it under, you know, on the road and just in general with all else being equal.


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[Assistant] And uhm, I don't think the markets are going to reflect that too much. You're going to see the team's strengths and put it, you know, if this Tampa Bay and Dallas game was in Tampa Bay instead of Dallas, it'd probably be the same total. But the data suggests that the offense performs much better at home.


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[Assistant] But you know, I kind of spread it out more, put a little bit more down than I usually do. Um, 25 units in total for those 23 bets, you know, some two units, some half a unit, some quarter unit, cause you're going with some long shot, you know, awards plays. So, um, yeah, it's a pretty, pretty decent amount this year.


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[Assistant] My highest play is the Titans to miss the playoffs. Not that I'm super down on Tennessee, you know, good coach. Um, you know, they're, they're going to have to figure out something on offense. Terry Henry is obviously going to need to stay healthy.


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[Assistant] They had a lot of things go right for them. Last year, uh, you know, injuries to other teams went right for them. Two Baltimore's looking like the number one seed, and then injuries befell them. Uhm, so I dunno if it's repeatable.


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[Assistant] But the reason I did this is because the win total market clearly thought that Tennessee was not a good team. Their win total was nine and a half. Kept getting bet down by the time I put...


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[Assistant] This, uh, this, uhm, miss playoffs bed in 9.5 was minus 150 to the under.


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[Assistant] And uhm, if you win nine games in the AFC, I don't think you're making the playoffs. It's a very tough conference. A lot of teams got better, especially in the AFC West. I think you need to win ten games to make the playoffs. So, the market's telling you Tennessee was not going to win.


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[Assistant] Ten games, because everybody liked the under on nine and a half. I think in some spots it might even be eight and a half right now is the line.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and the miss, the miss playoffs bet was only plus 100, so even odd. So I'm getting 50 cents of value off that minus 150 in a situation where I didn't think that.


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[Assistant] That uh, that 9-1 is going to make the playoffs. I had a very small chance of that happening. So that's kind of why I blasted as my biggest bet.


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[Assistant] Uhm, not, not necessarily because the titans are going to be bad in my mind. Uhm, I think they probably are. I would lean to that. Uhm, but it's not my strongest opinion. Uhm, but the market was saying, you know, this is, this is what this reality is and there's a much more efficient number to take advantage of over at this side.


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[Assistant] Yeah, upgraded coach, I think, um, you know, uh, Brian Flores has done wonders with that team over the last few years, but might be one of the better offensive minds, you know, to, um,


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[Assistant] Tutoring, has tutelage under Kyle Shanahan, we know one of the best offensive minds in the game, and he had a lot to do with the offensive success of San Francisco, his creativity with that offense. And he brought him to Miami in an offense that couldn't do anything in terms of getting guys open in space, really put a lot onto what he had to do on his own, uhm, to adult with injuries the first couple years.


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[Assistant] And uhm, the offensive line wasn't good. It was really a disaster scenario. Well, they upgrade our receiver with Tyree kill, obviously.


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[Assistant] And then, uh, it just seems like everything's put in place for Tua to succeed now and, and be able to take off because he has a really good support system around him, so.


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[Assistant] I think they'll be good. The defense is always, you know, really good. Uhm, it's very consistent. I don't think they added any new starters. I know Ingram was like their big guy in, but I think he's going to be a sub package rusher. Uhm, and everybody else has played together. Uhm, should be very comfortable playing together.


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[Assistant] So it just seems like a situation where they could be better than a lot of people think. I think it's a 10-win team at least.


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[Assistant] And those are the two teams I've been on. Ravens just decimated by injuries last year, still perform well, eight-win team, even with all the injuries, a lot of them pre-season and then carried on into the season, even losing their quarterback for several games, which a lot of teams, you know, just go into tank when they lose their quarterback.


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[Assistant] Um, and they were number one seed and Carbos coach of the year. Their number one receiver was like Marquise Brown as a rookie with like 580 receiving yards at the receiver position. I think Andrews was the actual.


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[Assistant] Number one receiver, but they've done it before, you know, with, with guys like Willie Snead and, and those types of guys that aren't, aren't, you know, huge receivers, um, and they get it done. So that's the least of my worries with Harbaugh is the receiver talent.


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[Assistant] They'll make it work as long as they stay healthy. Very good chance for them to step out. They're one of my favorite teams to play on. I took them to win the division at plus one 55. Really liked that bet.


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[Assistant] You know, attuned to having good performances for the Browns, but we don't know what we're going to get with Amari Cooper. And then it's a lot of question marks behind them also. So yeah, and then I'd rather have Mark Andrews at tight end than anything the Browns have, so.


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[Assistant] It is possible. I think the Browns, people can consider the Browns run game a lot better because they're offensive line and that they're, they're backs. But uhm, you know, passing wise Lamar Jackson will cover a lot of those woes too. Uhm, you know, we, we can see people consider him a lot of runner, not a passer at quarterback position, but when the game's on the line, like he's had some really good performances in the fourth quarters of games too. Uhm, even if he hasn't got it done in the playoffs yet. So I, I,


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[Assistant] All the confidence in the world, they'll figure it out. They have, you know, like I said, one of the best coaches in the league and you just have to trust that those guys will get it done.


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[Assistant] Didn't get to work in the offense, I think in the, in the, before the season as well, as well as you could have in an offense run by Doug Peterson, who knows what he's doing.


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[Assistant] Uhm, that's not going to be the case anymore, obviously. Uhm, the talent might not be there catching the ball as they spend a lot of money. They brought in, now Zay Jones looks like they might be their best receiver if you read what's coming out of camp, which isn't great, but that guy has all the talent in the world, so.


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[Assistant] I was able to find him plus 125 to one to win the MVP. And I just love that combination of Doug Peterson as his coach and knowing the talent that, that Lawrence has. Um, and you saw at the end of the year last year after Meyer was gone, he had some pretty good performances at the end of the year too.


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[Assistant] And we don't know, obviously the talent's gotta be there. I'm not gonna dogma Holmes too much as a prospect. The talent ended up being there, but he had the perfect coach and the perfect system in place to maximize that talent.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and so if he ends up on the Giants and Dave Gettleman drafts him, whatever, and Joe Judge is running him, is he as good a quarterback? I don't know. You know, it's probably not. And uhm, maybe the talent wins out eventually, but.


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[Assistant] He's not going to be Josh Rosen by any means, but maybe he's just a good quarterback instead of an MVP-level quarterback. That could be the case with Trey Lance. Put him in anybody else's hands. Wouldn't trust him as much. Put him with Kyle Shanahan. Obviously they had a direction they wanted to take with that offense, and they thought he was the guy. They traded three first-round picks to go up and be in position to take him. And so when you make that level of investment in a quarterback,


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[Assistant] Um, and you have a guy that's proven already in place in Garoppolo, but you want to go on and move on with this guy. You have something in mind, what you're going to do with that offense. And so I think they're going to maximize his talent, put him in the situation they need to succeed. I think San Francisco has a really good chance to take the number one seed, beat out the Rams and the NFC. So I have them at.


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[Assistant] Plus two, uh, two to one to win the division. I like that bet too. But I'm all in on San Francisco this year, just figuring that I want to get a guy that's a raw, talented prospect at quarterback in with Kyle Shanahan because his upside is tremendous.


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[Assistant] So I figured, you know, take, take a little while, you know, put a half unit on something a little more crazy. I think the NFC is a little more wide open than people expect.


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[Assistant] We think that the Vikings are pretty solid. We think the Eagles are pretty solid. We think the Cardinals are pretty solid. We think the Saints are pretty solid. But, so a couple of those teams aren't as good as people think. You know, the Saints might finish 7-7 and 10.


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[Assistant] 6 and 11 wouldn't surprise me. I mean, all those teams I named, there are reasons to be optimistic about them, but not all of them are going to reach their ceiling.


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[Assistant] In the NFC, it could be, you know, a team like the Giants or the Panthers, if you believe in Baker Mayfield.


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[Assistant] Uhm, but my, the one I'm rolling with is Detroit. Uhm, you can tell players love playing for Dan Campbell. He's a big old meathead that everybody loves, and he's gonna get the most out of his players on game day. And they overperformed, you know, they weren't winning games. They went, started what, 0-11, I believe, or 0-11-1?


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[Assistant] But they were covering spreads, they were getting themselves in position to win and then losing because of like the best field goal in history and random things like that.


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[Assistant] And so you look at the win loss record and it's like, that's all that matters is wins and losses. But this was a better team than, than their win loss record last year. Saw it a little bit toward later in the year, you know, they came on a little bit.


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[Assistant] Uhm, they're talented on the defensive side of the ball. Hutchinson was a big pick up. Loved what they have in the defensive line. Loved what they have in the offensive line. So we've seen a team like in the past like the Eagles.


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[Assistant] Might not look as strong at the skill positions, might not look as strong in the secondary at linebacker, really strong in the trenches. And that seems to be the team that the Lions are putting together. So I could see them, you know, beating up a few teams in the trenches. I could see Jared Goff having a few games here and there. We dog on Jared Goff too, one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, I think everybody thinks. Dude went to a Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] Playing in an offense that is going to be better when Jameson Williams is ready to come back. But some interesting pieces on the offensive side of the skill positions, love what they're doing in the trenches and think they're really strong defensively and they have a solid coaching staff in place. So that speaks to me to be a team that could win nine games, maybe even 10 games and be an upset team that gets to the playoffs.


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[Assistant] He's got to do it when he doesn't have talent to throw to offensively. Darnel Mooney is more of a wide receiver too. Now he has to be like one of the better receivers in the league to kind of carry that passing game. I don't think that's going to happen. Fields can only do so much behind that offensive line. I believe they're going to start a fifth round rookie at left tackle it looks like.


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[Assistant] They're going to start at right guard and right tackle too guys. They scooped off the free agency in late July, which is never what you want to see from your, your starters, you know, guys that are nobody wants in the league until, until the summer.


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[Assistant] So I just don't know where the positivity is going to come from. I think under five and a half of plus 140, I believe you can still get is a good play on the outline. I think if you can find situations where you can bet them to have the worst record, you know, get the number one pick, that's probably a good thing to do too at the 10 to one, eight to one range, whatever you can find.


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[Assistant] And then Atlanta, yeah, I'm also a little bit more, more, I'm not as strong on this play A because I don't get the half numbers is right on five. So I think it could be a push and I don't like playing those pushes. I want, if I'm going in on a four month bet, I want to be able to get paid out at the end.


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[Assistant] Aside from that, I mean, it's not a very good roster. Uhm, not a lot, not good pass catchers. You have to figure that out there. Defense, they have a couple solid players on defense. AJ Terrell really emerging as a, as a quality cornerback, but still a long way to go on the defense to rebuild, so.


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[Assistant] Yeah, 11 to 1 on these odds, uhm, so I put two units on it. Typically I wouldn't put that big a play on more of a long shot play here, but.


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[Assistant] Because you know with these awards, they're narrative awards and people who vote on them are playing into the narrative. If McCaffrey and Henry both stay healthy, play 17 games, McCaffrey's numbers are going to be very good. They were very good last year before he got hurt.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and, you know, in fantasy, people are taking him over, Henry, for the most part. So we, we expect that if he stays healthy, he's gonna be very, very good.


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[Assistant] When you look at the narrative in this award, Derek Henry coming back and winning the award, it'd be a, uh, you know, comeback, great, good comeback story.


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[Assistant] Missed the last eight games, uhm, whatever. McCaffrey's a double comeback story. He played, what, two games? Three games the year before? So he's really coming back from...


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[Assistant] Well, I think the stats are going to be there with McCaffrey. He also is two years younger than Henry, I believe, um, 25 or 26 and Henry's like 28. So I don't see why, what's the, the thing in the market that's driving McCaffrey to be 11 to 1 and Henry to be three plus 350, except for that first day games where McCaffrey was just ridiculous statistically. Um, and who knows if they can match that with how the offense is looking this year.


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[Assistant] 25 to 1, I certainly wouldn't make him the favorite, like I'm talking about McCaffrey. I just figured that that was valuable in a very crowded field, uhm, to have those numbers because I could see him getting double digit sacks this year, just with the situation.


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[Assistant] Yeah, everybody knows I'm not a Bills homegirl. I'm typically pessimistic with the Bills. I would not play them to win the Super Bowl. I wouldn't play their over. I think they're at the top of the market right now.


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[Assistant] Uhm, not because I think he's the best running back in the class, but they treated him as one of the best running backs. They used a second round pick on him. To me, that speaks to them wanting to use him in the offense a lot more than people realize.


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[Assistant] I think he could have a chance to take the starting job from Devin Singletary and just be the lead back at some point. Uhm, he wasn't that really in college, but I do believe he has that ability in him. Uhm, just, you know, based on scouting reports and everything.


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[Assistant] Uhm, Dayball's not there to, to, to basically, you know, get all the credits and do whatever he wants to do on offense because he's so good at it. Uhm, so I don't know that the offense is going to be as pass happy as it usually is if McDermott is getting in people's ears saying we need to save some hits on Josh in the second half. Let's just run it. You know, we figure we're a playoff team. Let's kind of grind out more games. Uhm, I think that you could see.


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[Assistant] You know, I think I've mentioned this to you before, the coach of the year, for the last seven years, has been one of the two teams that had the number one seed.


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[Assistant] So it's like, it's a team like Carbaz, Ravens, those type of things that, that these teams are just so good and they get the number one seed. You got to look at that guy as a coach of the year candidate.


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[Assistant] Well, there's some sites with McDermott. He's buried in the coach of the year. You know, he's one of the lower odds teams. I took him at 30 to one.


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[Assistant] Highest Super Bowl of futures, you know, highest win total in the AFC. Uhm, it just seems correlated that he would be a coach of the year candidate. So loved getting that bet in at 30-1 on him.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I was looking at guys like Dan Campbell. I wanted to play, you know, because I think the lines are going to be good, but he was 18 to one places I was seeing. Uhm, so guys like that I can see and Doug Peterson, same thing. He was 16, 18 to one. I would rather just take 30 to one McDermott and hope that the number one seed thing plays out.


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[Assistant] We have college football stuff from our guy, Anne Marie Hunt, and just a bunch of other great experts there. We do baseball parlays every day during the week. I mean, we just, you got auto racing, you got golf, you got so much good stuff to cash in there. And it's only $10 a month for them usually. And then that first promotional month, I've used my code, only a dollar to check out all that content.


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[Assistant] So if you project out a full season, you know, the first five weeks, like you said, he was throwing 36 times a game and then over the last 10 games was throwing 25 times a game. And that's kind of that, that 25 to 30 passes a game is the range that.


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[Assistant] I'd like to see, but like Breach said, you can't ignore how this offensive line is built and how conducive it is for Jalen Hurts running style. So a little bit more, but not a ton more in my mind.


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[Assistant] That would be the defensive coordinator that Jonathan Cannon showed.


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[Assistant] Jordan Davis as a first round pick. James Bradberry, some notable additions. I, you know, obviously expressed my displeasure with Nick Sirianni early in the year.


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[Assistant] That changed over the course of last season. I don't think my thoughts around Jonathan Gannon changed much as the season developed and I'm not super keen on them.


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[Assistant] Changing, answering this year, that's probably like a, probably the biggest burning question for me is kind of how he orchestrates this defense and, and if he can


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[Assistant] Weave them well together already. We're hearing reports that Hassan Reddick is dropping back a lot in past coverage when he's been one of the most dynamic past rushers in the NFL over the past two seasons, so.


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[Assistant] Already some continued burning questions I'd say there for me.


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[Assistant] It's, it's the guy that kind of propelled this podcast into Matthews Stafford as a Hall of Famer territory, I think.


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[Assistant] I think uhm, I've heard some good things around Marcus Epps, but I think Harris is your guy and Tartt are going to form the starting safeties.


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[Assistant] I mean, it, it kind of decided a title to an extent, right?


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[Assistant] No, that's fair enough. I don't think it's crazy, but yeah, a good player, a hard hitter, uhm, I think will be embraced by Billy as long as he doesn't drop a crucial interception in the NFC Championship.


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[Assistant] He's like, no, like I can see him like, like popping around and being like, I don't even love him. With a glass of wine.


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[Assistant] Like there's no way Wilson doesn't go on an international trip and come back with like some sort of like change bit of his personality. You know?


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[Assistant] We have another question first. Uh, vote for us with the People's Choice Podcast Awards. We have been nominated for the fourth straight year.


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[Assistant] And uhm, you can do that at, I'm actually reading this off the cuff, I'm not even looking at the rundown, but podcastawards.com, slash app, slash sign up.


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[Assistant] And you go there and you select sports on the drop down and then select pick six and vote for us. It takes like 60 seconds to do. You can do it.


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[Assistant] If you're watching on YouTube, if you look above Breach's left shoulder, there's a QR code that you can scan.


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[Assistant] If we win, not even the finals, we gotta win the whole thing. If we win the whole thing, I will get a tattoo.


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[Assistant] On the TV, like, you know, smart TV, obviously, like, you know.


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[Assistant] Kind of awesome. SimmonsDM asks, is that the same tattoo promise that Wilson made? No. If we win the best podcast, we win, if we win the People's Choice Podcast Award of the Sports Podcast of the Year, I'll get, I'll get a big ass tattoo on my shoulder. Cause I'm going to get a raise. Like we'll all get raises.


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[Assistant] Right, People's Stories Podcast Award. You have the top overall. If we win the top overall, I will, if we, if we win the top overall podcast of the year, I promise you.


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[Assistant] I mean, you know, it's uhm, what's his name, uh, from Purdue who made all the money? Chase, uh.


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[Assistant] Yeah, he's made an insane amount of money as the all-time backup quarterback.


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[Assistant] Like I'm pretty sure if you Google chase Daniel, it's like net worth. Like that's the first thing that pops up. Uhm, $16 million over the course of his career. Uhm, but like, I mean, like Mike Lennon makes, you know, makes good money as a backup quarterback, like Andy Dalton.


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[Assistant] That is outrageous. Who said 16 million? I mean, just as an example, some people who are, are you sure it's 40?


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[Assistant] 39 million dollars, just to put this in context, uhm, trying to find a famous quarterback who's made much more money.


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[Assistant] Amazing, good job Breach. Uhm, there's no like super famous quarterback who didn't make more than that, I don't think.


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[Assistant] Although maybe there's, I mean, like, I mean, yeah, quarterbacks, maybe you make so much damn money. Uhm, anyway, yeah, I mean, backup quarterback is the obvious answer. I mean, I think, like, if, if I had to pick, like, uh, what position would be best for me? I mean, you know, just like size and size, I mean, I guess I'm, I'm not fast. I don't know about a running back, but like, I mean, they're not gonna be a wide receiver, not gonna be a defensive tackle. Uhm, maybe a safety.


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[Assistant] Uhm, anything other than the fact that you would be a kicker?


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[Assistant] You know, like what team, five teams to take a step back and five teams to take a step forward. Five, five non-playoff teams who make the playoffs this coming year and five playoff teams who don't make the playoffs this coming year. Like the Ravens are by far the easiest team to move into the playoffs, right?


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[Assistant] The high from the previous year, the 49ers, we had 30 more than anyone else in the NFL.


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[Assistant] I mean, what, what round is that? I'm not, I'm not good at math today, but, um, he's the fourth quarterback coming off the board.


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[Assistant] Juju Smith Schuster and Margaret Gretta Scantling. Uhm, but like I do think.


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[Assistant] There's a couple things you have to remember about this receiver core. And I would also point out too, that we have five games in Patrick Mahomes career. This would be a statmuse.com, a great resource for splits, especially quarterbacks without their wide receiver splits. Five games, Patrick Mahomes, no Tyree Hill.


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[Assistant] One interception, and the average is 347.4 yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt. Now, of note, in 2017, Patrick Mahomes only played one game, right?


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[Assistant] So like, Juju can operate out of a slot and be a, just a devastating weapon underneath. And MBS can be the over the top type of guy. Like, you know what I'm saying? Like they're not.


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[Assistant] You can't take the two of them and be like, oh, well, we're replacing Tyree Hill, but you can.


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[Assistant] At least fifty, at least fifty one percent. Uhm, alright, let's take a break and when we come back, more Mailbag Questions next!


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[Assistant] Not always does a commercial. Devo's just checked out. He didn't care anymore. Unbelievable.


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[Assistant] Suddenly they don't, they won't like actually go through with the promotion and he's still stuck on his podcast. He's like, he's just getting bitter. He just won't even play the commercials. Won't answer the questions.


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[Assistant] Do you know there's a bag of mail at this point? That's all he is. Oh my god. Are you ready for some more mailbag?


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[Assistant] KKid45210 on, I missed one, no I didn't, uhm, on Apple Podcast. My question, what's the rankings of the past catching groups, not wide receivers, past catching groups, in the AFC North and rankings in the AFC West?


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[Assistant] There are always conversations about a team going to London or somewhere else in the EU, but not any conversations of a team, but when you're a friendly neighbor.


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[Assistant] First of all, I appreciate those two questions because they are like completely different and very on brand for the type of question.


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[Assistant] Because the NFL likes to use, likes to let the Bills use their leverage to get a new stadium.


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[Assistant] Uh, by threatening to go to Canada. And they did go to Canada for a while and play regular season games in Canada. And so like the Bills are basically the de facto Canadian team. And I think that's the only reason why.


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[Assistant] Yeah, actually the location is an interesting point. Like Toronto is easy to get to, you know, I mean, you're not putting a team in Edmonton expecting them to crush, you know.


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[Assistant] I mean in Montreal, I mean in Montreal, like still close to the New York teams in Buffalo, I mean like all the New York teams.


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[Assistant] A little untraditional, I think. Like, if you're including Austin Eclair, then the chargers are probably cheap.


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[Assistant] Versus Darren Waller, Devonte Adams, and Hunter Rimper. It's very close.


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[Assistant] The ravens are clearly last, we'll give them just a second. It comes down to, I mean, uhm,


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[Assistant] The, uh, do you want Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and...


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[Assistant] David Bell that they just drafted, plus Tekeem Grant.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think Steelers are two pretty clearly. And then, I mean, I'm taking it just like, like,


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[Assistant] Uh, Mario Hubert would obviously be the number one on the ravens.


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[Assistant] So on the Ravens, let's discuss that because we were asked about the Ravens before the Y receiver, just like, what do you think about the Ravens?


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[Assistant] What do you think about the Raven's death trap? Do you think it is as bad as it seems? I mean...


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[Assistant] I don't, I don't think it's as, I don't think it's as, I don't, if we're talking about pass catchers, I mean Mark Andrews is a one.


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[Assistant] Man, do the, would you really? Ooh, actually anything we didn't... I might take the Ravens over the Browns.


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[Assistant] Yes, and the Browns are the worst, especially like, and I think that would be proven even more true if we have, uhm, the, uh, Deshaun Watson suspension. People are like, ah, Browns!


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[Assistant] If so, would this potential scandal expedite the lottery draft process similar to NHL-NBA? Love the show. Thanks guys. What say you, Breach?


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[Assistant] Yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah, you just, you just, you just break your quarterback's neck and you lose a bunch of games and then you get Andrew Luck and then you ruin his career.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, look, like, let's, here's the other thing too. You know, archery will probably be awesome.


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[Assistant] Yeah, he, I mean, you know, like his, his uncle, his dad was incredible. His uncle was probably gonna be a Hall of Famer too.


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[Assistant] J.K. Dobbins for T. Higgins a two thousand twenty third second round pick and fourth round pick or Dobbins and a two thousand twenty three first round pick for Mahomes and Matt.


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[Assistant] What Mac is that? There's definitely a better Mac than I'm not thinking of. It's not a real Mac, right?


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[Assistant] Was M-A-C-K on the question?


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[Assistant] Seamark came with, with Mac Jones. Yeaah, that's, that's why I didn't think of it, cause Mac is M.A.C.


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[Assistant] Because it's a super flex, tight end premium league, which means you can play two... Oh, M.A.C. Is it McCorkle? Is it M.A.C.? McCorkle Jones? Matt McCorkle Jones?


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[Assistant] No, McCorkle, McCorkle does not have M-A-C-K in it. It's M-C-C-O-R-K-L-E.


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[Assistant] Yeah, so it's probably Matt Jones since it's a super flex, meaning you can play two quarterbacks at once. So.


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[Assistant] I mean, in order to me, burner counters, I'm really high on J.K. Dobbins. I mean, I think that this is, so this is, he's being offered Dobbins for Higgins and two draft picks, or Dobbins in a first round pick for Patrick Mahomes and, uh, Mack Jones. I mean, I think both of these are firm nills. Because, uhm, oh, you know what we'll do?


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[Assistant] No, no, no, no. I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go over to our, our pals at dynastyleaguefootball.com who do great work. Not that we don't have.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Dynasty League analysis at cbsports.com. We do, but one thing we don't have.


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[Assistant] Wait, no, this is a terrible trade anyway. T Higgins is way better, is worth way more dynasty points than J.K. Dobbins.


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[Assistant] You're also talking about a 23 year old wide receiver on a pass happy team. Like that's a great, that's great. You don't do that.


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[Assistant] So you wouldn't give up T Higgins for J.K. Dobbins. You definitely wouldn't give up two picks plus T Higgins for J.K. Dobbins. I agree with that. Uhm, and then let's see, Dobbins and a future, say mid-round first. That is a lot. Four Mahomes.


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[Assistant] Well the nice thing is you can actually, uhm, you can actually make it a superflex league. Or look.


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[Assistant] Okay, that is, uh, no, it's a terrible trade. It's Superflex. Patrick Mahomes is worth more than J.K. Dobbins and the first round pick by himself.


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[Assistant] Terrible. You're not missing anything. Don't make those trades.


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[Assistant] Jesse Clark in the chat said he sounds like he's giving up dominance. If that's the case, the...


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[Assistant] You're older than Prisco, sadder than, jeez, sadder than Prisco even.


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[Assistant] Yes, people are following you. People are following those people. Can you see that?


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[Assistant] Comrade, I know you've heard the stories about us. When I hear them, even I am shocked. But we are not what people say. Yes, people are following you. People are following those people. Do you see that?


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[Assistant] If you mean when will Chernobyl be completely safe? The half-life of plutonium-239 is 24,000 years, so perhaps we should just say not within our lifetimes.


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[Assistant] We're doing a monologue like I'm Tucker Carlson.


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[Assistant] Yeah, call it Goward over Tucker Carlson. Might be a better call.


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[Assistant] Uh, one moron bigger moron than the other. Doesn't know how to turn off Cialis commercials, uh, in the middle.


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[Assistant] You better put a jet pack on him right now. I know. You've had shows where I've been outside in the car and the car's, the show's about to start and he's driving in. I've seen it. He, he didn't, I still haven't talked to him about this. I still haven't said this. I was at a stop sign right out here. There's the four way stop sign. It was me, one of the big bosses at NBC.


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[Assistant] Right? Yep, I could make a guess, go on. And, he.


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[Assistant] Right? And I didn't know it was he at first, as in Barry. We all kind of pulled up. Me and top executive for NBC here, right? Pull up.


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[Assistant] Everybody's safe. But that story would live on. I know, I know. For the end of time. I've been meaning to because I've told other people at work about it and I haven't brought it up with him, so at some point I will. Alright, but stick up for me, alright? I will. One thing I know is that you and me can take those two all day long.


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[Assistant] You're, you know what, you know what week it is. It's draft week. Yes, it is. That's right. Connor Rogers is here. He's hosting the show today. He's the man. Thanks for coming in as always.


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[Assistant] It's, it's an awesome week. Excited for that. Mock draft day to day. Okay, we're gonna do a little bit of that. What I think.


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[Assistant] Is going to happen. Of course I don't know. I'm not going on what I would do. I'm going on what I think, what I've heard. I've got some inklings from some people. It's a very hard thing to do. We'll see. And then Wednesday, we're going to do a little AMA just to throw that out there for people. Uh, I'm going to unleash some things I've heard around the league about the draft and kind of go more in depth with that.


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[Assistant] Alright, we'll see. I tried to do, you know, I tried not to overtrade. In years past, I've kind of been like, I'm just not going to do any trades because like it's such a, just like a, but, but like I've heard this year,


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[Assistant] Thoughts, things you hear. I've heard, ooh, this team likes this player. And I kind of just went, you know, I'm going to go with like my, just my guts and instincts on this a little bit here and there and see what I can pull out. So, uh, yeah, I got, I think what three different trades. I thought about a fourth at the end of the first round. I think there's a number of teams at the end of the first round.


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[Assistant] Detroit, the 49ers, I look at those two teams specifically and go, I don't know if a player of need fits that spot right there. They might trade down and acquire picks. Uh, I didn't do that, but we'll get into that as we get down to the board here. And it feels like the Ravens are back there. They're always like, exactly right. Right.


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[Assistant] Well yea, definitely, exactly right. Be very careful. And what he did last year, yea. It was so...


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[Assistant] Crazy. We're like, that's not going to happen, right? Like, but that's cool. That's cool. He did that. I like the thought. Oh, we got his, you know, will Anderson up there and all that. But damn that he nailed that one. Certainly had the inside info, but yeah, it's tough. I mean, I don't even know what I would have gotten right last year. I wonder, I mean, I'm sure I got one or two right, but I don't think many more than that. Mel Kuyper got one.


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[Assistant] Right? And he's the master of the draft. And I'm not trying to say that to take a shot on Mel. Just to say like, what Pete wrote here. This shit is hard. Right. This shit is hard. It's not easy to figure this stuff out.


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[Assistant] Yeah, right. Not even going the first round, right? I mean, yeah, so it is. And, you know, some of these, like, again, you're blind. You're a blind squirrel looking for a nut. Is that what they say, right? Or a blind squirrel looking for an acorn, I guess, is more of the... They do say nut. They do, right? Yeah, right. Yeah, uhm, but, but like, yeah, some of these...


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[Assistant] You have no idea what that team's feel or thought is, so you just try to make your best guesstimation on some things you've heard, evaluations, whatever, but yeaah, you're gonna be in the dark here. And like some of the ones that are drafting quarterbacks, right, uh, some of those teams


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[Assistant] As I've told people here, like some of the teams I'm least connected to, so I don't have anybody there that I have comfortable conversations along that way, right? And, you know, with the quarterback position and when it becomes that


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[Assistant] You know, we like, well, we like Levis, but that person maybe just didn't know that Chris Ballard liked Richardson more or whatever. And that, that's where, you know, you can be wrong. You could talk to a few people in an organization and think, ooh, they are leaning this way. And then you come out.


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[Assistant] The quarterback always makes it weird, right? I think in the media we all over, over, you know, do it, the talk, always higher up the draft board than they probably should be, right? Uhm, I think that's part of that. And then this year, hey, as we get into this mock draft, like we're about to here in a second, pick two has become a crazy thing all of a sudden.


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[Assistant] Because again, as I know, right, and I've been led to believe this from, from people in the league, Danny, I mean, and people knew this to a degree. Jane Daniels wants to go to the Raiders. That's period. He's been kind of giving Washington the cold shoulder ever since this whole process started.


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[Assistant] Not that he's not willing to go there, but just more of like, I'd rather go to the Raiders, right? So that's been out there. And then I think it came to a head last week with them bringing all the quarterbacks in when he thought he was going to be the only one in there by himself.


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[Assistant] So, that pissed him off, that pissed their camp off, right? Now, I don't think it's pissed them off to the point where they're like, Washington, don't draft us, right?


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[Assistant] You know, but it's certainly made things uncomfortable. And of course, if that does come to that point where it's like Jaden Daniels says something, well, that's going to throw this whole draft into a frenzy here and what could happen. And all of a sudden there's a lot of different tunnels and tentacles, right? To where this can go if Washington doesn't take Jaden Daniels at number two.


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[Assistant] Everybody gets one this year. Everybody gets one this year, you're right. Yeah, I mean, come on, we know. This is, this is, this is done. It's in the books. Uh, he's extremely talented. You know I love him. I don't see a


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[Assistant] I think when you just look at Chicago, and of course I, I just, you know, go back to the GM and the fact that he came from Kansas City before he came to GM, he's seeing this guy who's got some of those Mahomes-ish type of traits, right? Uh, I, I just, it's a no-brainer. So Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears, I'm really excited to see that. And of course, I think the Bears,


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[Assistant] Even without Caleb Williams, we're a team that I would have said watch out for this year.


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[Assistant] The D is real, right? We've talked about this on some past podcasts, the way they played at the end of the year. Offense lines, I mean, offense got some potential too. With Keenan Allen, the O line I think is better than people realize. The tight end, Cole Comet's pretty freaking big time. You know, so they got something working there in Chicago. Uh, I'm excited for what it could look like with Caleb Williams.