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[Assistant] You know, the Eagles moving the ball in the Cowboys defense, which looks like they had a lot of their starters in.


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[Assistant] That was a little concerning, but again, there's nothing really to be playing for for the Cowboys. So it's hard to gauge that football game in general. They're both in the playoffs. Cowboys are very talented. It's going to be awesome to see that matchup against the 49ers. I do think their defensive line will be the key to the football game. It's going to be on them to ruin the game.


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[Assistant] And then, I, you know, I expect Dallas' offense versus the 49ers' defense to be a slugfest. I think it'll be hard.


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[Assistant] But the one thing I look at is Dallas. Will you throw the ball outside and attack these corners? Can you do that? I don't know. Uhm, but uhm, certainly a playoff team and a lot of good there. But yes, I still have my questions about this Dallas offense. I do. I have more questions about them than I do the Dallas defense.


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[Assistant] Still some things about their football team that they're unbelievable. You're sitting there just going, whoa, they're going to lose this game. They're out of it. And all of a sudden, you know, one of their superstar players makes a play. Melvin Ingram bust through the line. Nick Bolton picks it up, runs it for a touchdown and you're going, oh crap.


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[Assistant] You know, I did think there was a lot of plays yesterday where, uh, or Saturday where I watched the replay and I go,


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[Assistant] And Pete can, I texted once or twice during the game to Pete and Florio, they'll be like, what is Mahomes looking at? There's two people wide open in front of him. He really watches the rush a lot right now. More than I ever remember him.


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[Assistant] Yeah, the Chiefs are good, but they're not perfect. They're not dominant 2018, 2019, 2020 Chiefs. They're certainly not. Uh, and, and then you saw their defense bleed a little again, too, in the game, in the run game. Uhm, but, but, uh, nonetheless, like the Chiefs always do, they find a way to win the football game.


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[Assistant] McKinnon looked really good. He did look good, right? To me, McKinnon and Gore, I believe, are better than Williams. I like Williams, don't get me wrong. McKinnon gives you the real juice out of the backfield. He runs hard. He runs hard, right. And he's a real threat in the pass game. I wish they would give him the ball a little bit more.


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[Assistant] They're, Baker Mayfield's gonna be the quarterback unless some other option that is just clearly better hits them in the face. Like, oh wait, you'll, you'll trade.


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[Assistant] Russell Wilson for only this? Okay, maybe we'll do it then. Maybe Baker Mayfield won't be the quarterback. And to me, that's what they're saying. But I don't think they're just gonna throw him aside and go, oh, he's done no good here. He's done a lot of good. I do think there's still some qualities to really respect about Baker Mayfield.


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[Assistant] You know, again, like we've talked about before, we've seen snippets of like high quality football play through Baker's career. So we know that he's capable of that.


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[Assistant] So I, I expect him to be back. Yeah, he's the number one pick of the organization.


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[Assistant] And again, there's more issues than him there. He's a little bit of a pain in the butt. We know that. He has been a little inconsistent. There's no doubt. You've heard my concerns about their passing offense. I think it's very bland and normal. That doesn't necessarily help him out.


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[Assistant] So they gotta help that, they gotta help him in that department too.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I didn't watch a lot of this football game. There was no point to, and I thought it was really smart in the Bengals to rest a lot of their players to. They had a lot of players on the COVID list and, you know, they've played a tough end of the season schedule with some emotional football games. And, you know, they've, they've,


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[Assistant] They've been hitting people hard. The 49ers, the Chiefs, I mean, they've really played a lot of good physical football teams. Uh, I thought that was smart and I expect them to be a pain in the butt in this AFC playoffs too.


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[Assistant] I can't wait. It's our game? I'm looking forward to it. Yeaah. That is like, to me, we got the first game, 4.30 on Saturday, wild card Saturday. I just, again, I think the Bengals are, can't miss TV.


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[Assistant] To me, they're one of the more fun teams to watch in all of football because their offense does everything. They got weapons. Burroughs amazing. Their defense has got talent, but will let up some big plays, which leads to good watching on television. So, uh, yeah, that'll, that'll be fun to watch and I'm excited to see what kind of run they can make here.


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[Assistant] No, no. I feel like that's kinda been swept under the rug by the national media. Like, oh, I don't know if Tannehill can do it. With who? Who's there to do it with him? He's gotta have some help. He saw yesterday he had two receivers back, he kinda went off. You know, he's capable of doing that. Their run game is good enough.


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[Assistant] You know, even without Derek Henry, they just need the receivers. They do need that. They can't have no Derek Henry and then no Julio Jones and AJ Brown on top of that. That's too much to overcome. And he's dealt with that a lot throughout the year. I mean, both those receivers have missed chunks of time.


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[Assistant] You know, throughout the season. So, uh, yes, I still look at the Titans and go, again, they can go to the Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] They definitely can. I know they're in the number one seed and they're not sexy.


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[Assistant] Out of all the teams in the AFC, they're the one team at least I look at to go.


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[Assistant] You want to, you got a question you want to ask? No, no, after you're done with your thought. Okay, they're the only team I look at to go, there's no team I look at to go.


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[Assistant] That's a mismatch. They're gonna have issues. They better hope they don't see that team. All these other teams, I can do that. Like, and again, I can just speak to last night. I mean, last night, or yesterday with the Chiefs. The Chiefs. Let's talk about them. We can play the Raiders.


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[Assistant] And, and next week you're gonna go, well yeaah, they're better in totality in this team, but this is gonna be an issue for them now. And that's where I feel like a place. In Tennessee, I don't look at any team on the AFC side that I go,


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[Assistant] That's a concern. If the Tennessee Titans have to play them, uh, that'll be an issue. And I feel like I can do that with all these teams in the AFC other than them.


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[Assistant] AFC Championship game win 23-21 and it's not that sexy. And then we're in the Super Bowl and we go, oh man, the Titans are in the Super Bowl and they win the Super Bowl 24-20.


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[Assistant] You know, now, I will say this off of yesterday. Tannahill was awesome, and the play he made at


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[Assistant] Uh, I believe it was 25-18 at that moment, where he escaped the pocket on 3rd and 5, and that's what our, our, uh, at Titan Hunter is talking about, where he, he broke a tackle, ran out to the right, and hit, uh, Westbrook Akina down the right sideline for a big play. That, that pretty much locked up the game for them. That was a huge play where the Texans had stole the momentum. I do want to give Davis Mills some credit. I do.


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[Assistant] Yeah, well yeah, he's played really, he's played really well. He's had some moments where you go, man, I mean, he understands how to play, he's Mac Jones light in my opinion, that's what he is. He's basically a lesser version of a guy at school, knows how to play the position, never really loses control of the football.


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[Assistant] Not quite as arc- accurate as Mac Jones, not quite as strong as Arm as Mac Jones, you know.


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[Assistant] Athletically, it's close. I think Mac's feet in the pocket are what separates him from there. But yes, there's been a lot of good from Davis Mills, and certainly he is going to make them think about


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[Assistant] Wait, do we want to make him the starter as we go forward? Now the other thing he had in his advantage is he had no pressure and no expectations compared to the other rookie quarterbacks. Where everybody's like, you know, looking at every move they make, was he worth that pick?


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[Assistant] Nobody cared about Davis Mills. He got a free pass and had a lot of weeks where it did look shitty, but we didn't care because we were like, ah, it's the Texans. Who gives a shit? And he's a third round pick. Or second round pick. Uh, is he a third round pick? Third round pick.


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[Assistant] I get it. I get it. Listen, you held a gun to my head. Would you take the Chiefs right now in the NFC? Like, like right now, again, not that we're making predictions, but like, I points bet I had to go in a town hall the other day and they were like, all right, give me your two Super Bowl predictions. And of course I tried to be like, man, this is a weird year.


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[Assistant] You know, I really wanted to see how the brackets shook out. Like, I want to do my bracket now and pick my Super Bowl winner. I'm hoping maybe we can do that and show that on Wednesday's podcast. Because I do think it's a match-up year. But they were like, well, give us your Super Bowl. And I wanted to be like,


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[Assistant] I don't, you can tell I don't sit here and feel comfortable about it. I just go, they've been there, they got a quarterback, it's magical, they're battle tested, I'll go with them. NFC, it's like the same thing. I go, I guess I'll go with Green Bay, but you've heard me say, I don't think Green Bay's really one of the three most talented teams in the NFC. I don't.


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[Assistant] But they're consistent and don't mess it up. So I guess if you made me pick, I would say that like off the bat, but I'm going to do a true bracket breakdown for Wednesday.


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[Assistant] Big Four, and I don't know why, I mean, I would put the 49ers right up there in that conversation too. I would have the 49ers in front of Arizona, and right in the class of the Dallas and Los Angeles. Listen, anybody out there watching this on YouTube or listening, like, go to Pointsbet.


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[Assistant] 49ers plus 1200 right now, that to me would be the bet.


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[Assistant] Like if you got some extra change to lay around, the value bet right there. I understand Green Bay and Tampa when healthy, like we talk about. Yeah, they're the favorites. I understand that.


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[Assistant] You give me one like value bet team where I go, Hey, I got some extra change to throw around. I'm going to try to hit it here. The 49ers would be the bet I would look at. I would, you know, let's like, let's just shake it out a little bit. The four Dallas versus the 49ers. I of course think the 49ers can win the football game. I haven't picked this yet.


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[Assistant] You know, they win that football game. Now, okay, more than likely, they're gonna be on the road going to Green Bay. Why can't they beat Green Bay? Why?


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[Assistant] I mean, we saw them go toe to toe with them earlier this year and Green Bay jumped out to like a 20 point lead or a 17 to 3 lead. They can go up to Green Bay and beat Green Bay. You're seeing Green Bay can't stop the run.


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[Assistant] Now you got 49ers and Shanahan coming into town? Great! Whoop-dee-doo! The Packers defense is bleeding into the playoffs here. That's what's scary. You know? Uhm, so, that's my two cents about that.


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[Assistant] It does all of it. It puts the pressure on the player, puts the pressure on the organization, cause like, you got the pick of the litter, you can take whoever you want. Right? And as soon as that person falters, they're going, they could have picked anybody they wanted, and they picked that guy. Right? You know? So, there is there.


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[Assistant] I think the win's more important than the draft position. Everybody stop acting like we all know how this is gonna exactly play out in the draft, alright? I mean, we've seen a few years in a row where the first corner off the board is like the fourth best corner in the draft.


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[Assistant] You know, again, the best defensive player in last year's draft was at pick number 11. It wasn't even close. He's the best defensive player. Michael Parsons was there at 11. So again, to me, the win


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[Assistant] The building of momentum into the off season, giving the guys that you know are going to be back in your team to go like, man, we did some positive things and kind of played well at the end of the year. Like, I believe in my coaches. Like, that to me is more important than the number one pick. There's no quarterback that was sitting there that was going, oh my gosh, he's going to be the number one pick.


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[Assistant] You know, Aiden Hutchinson, the kid from Michigan, the defense end from Oregon, they sound like they're in the conversation. I have no grasp, total grasp of the draft conversation quite yet. But either way, yeaah, let's not like, we make too big of a deal about, oh, the number one pick. I understand when there's like a,


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[Assistant] Mark Key quarterback, and that becomes a conversation. I get it. But after that, you know, again, who knows? The Lions might get there and go, wait, the top four guys in the draft, we don't need these positions. Let's trade down a few picks. Good thing we lost that game at the end of the year.


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[Assistant] You know, so that to me is where just, you know, everybody pumped the brakes on that stuff. I would rather have the win, if I'm the ownership of the Alliance.


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[Assistant] Exactly right. I mean, damn, we've had a lot of, a lot of them like that. I mean, gosh, I mean, I could go through the list and really get on people and go, oh, you told me this guy was the number one pick in the draft and he can't even play in the NFL. So yes, we don't know how that's gonna, uh, all


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[Assistant] Quadfecta there, right? I guess basically, they're all out of here. We've had it with all of you. I understand, I think, on all accounts. You know, here, listen, I'm sick of hearing, like, you know, Matt Nagy, how many years was he the coach of the Chicago Bears? Was this year four, Pete, or five?


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[Assistant] I don't know why for some reason I'm 5 crept into my brain and maybe I'm wrong. People are going, well look at Matt Nagy, they made the playoffs, you know, two out of the last four years, right?


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[Assistant] Okay, okay, great. I get that. But like, those teams were set up to be like, deep into the playoff team. That's where, the context matters.


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[Assistant] Those teams were, they were worthy of being an NFC championship games or being better than what they were in the regular season. They performed at a lesser level than what they were as a team. That's why he's getting fired. That's what it really is. So yeaah, you know, I'm not shocked by either one. I'm not.


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[Assistant] You know, again, I think the Vikings thing ran its course. It was a great run by Spielman and Zimmer. You know, they were of course relevant in the playoffs, a pain in the butt for a long period of time here.


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[Assistant] Hey, it comes a time where it's just time to make a change. The organization needs something new. The coaches need something new. I'm not surprised at all, but hey, the Bears.


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[Assistant] Be interesting to see where they go with Justin Fields, a quarterback. That's certainly a different situation than the Vikings where, you know, you're kind of stuck with Kirk Cousins one more year, no matter who comes into town. Uh, and I think that, you know, will, will lead to two different coaching surges, uh, by both organizations.


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[Assistant] To me, the one Flores is the one that I think could end up being like a little bit of a hot commodity. You know, Flores is, I know, impressed people throughout, like, him uhm...


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[Assistant] Uh, interviewing for jobs the first time around. He's a real football coach. He's gonna have a real plan of attack for what he thinks the football team should do and how he's gonna coach it. So I wouldn't think he is a guy that has, out of all those you just mentioned, by far is gonna be the guy that's looked at.


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[Assistant] Uh, maybe for another job right here, right now. You know, the other thing too, you just look at it and go, you know, I think it's a weird year where there's no like,


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[Assistant] Just, oh wow, we gotta have these coaching candidates to come. It's, it's, I think everybody's got a pretty long list right now, doesn't really know where to go. There's no those slam dunk two or three coordinators where you just go, yes, that's the guy. Love Lefwich, no doubt about it. You know, be enemy what he's done. Certainly serving his time there and doing a lot of good things.


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[Assistant] You know, Leslie Frazier, the job he's done with the Bills defense. I mean, there's a, there's, there's a lot out there, you know, but I don't know if there's that one that you just go, wow.


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[Assistant] Certainly not. And the Bears are going to have to make it all about Justin Fields and where they want to go with that situation. Out of all those ones you mentioned though, man, the Dolphins one is the one I look at. That job.


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[Assistant] The Dolphins have everything except, like they need a few offensive linemen who are still young and getting better.


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[Assistant] And the quarterback situation is dicey still. I mean, it's dicey. I don't know if the next coach comes in and is gonna have to be like, no, you have to make it work with Tua. I wonder if that's gonna go down. I don't know. Because I would have told you, I would have thought yesterday Tua's last game was a dolphin. I would have thought that would be it. But now this happens, I don't know where it goes.


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[Assistant] The Giants were a disaster down the stretch. Just nothing was a good look. You know, Jake Fromm at quarterback, come on, they have no chance. Jake Fromm is no disrespect to the human.


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[Assistant] I know he's a nice guy, but like he's a third string quarterback in the NFL. That's what he is.


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[Assistant] You know, that's just, yeaah, the way the Giants looked down the stretch, horrible. 49, I mean the Washington football team, nothing special either there yesterday, but.


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[Assistant] I mean, I think they realized pretty early, like, we can kind of coast through this one and still win it.


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[Assistant] And they get the win. Washington's another team I look at to go, you know, they're not far off. Ron Rivera has built something there a little bit. I would think they're going to be in the market for a quarterback. I would think that happens. They're just a few players away at each position, you know, on both sides of the ball too, to where I go, man, Washington could be a major player next year. They're not that far away.


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[Assistant] Yeah, well, I mean, I get it. The end of the year here just was all over the place. Uh, but I don't think the Marys are that type of owner or don't want to run that type of organization where they're looking to cycle through coaches every two or three years. I think they believe in Joe Judge with what these...


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[Assistant] You know, his big picture goal and what he's trying to instill there. But you know, he did himself no favors with some of the things he said to the media this week and the week before that. Uh, they got a lot of work to do in the Giants organization. There's a lot of questions throughout.


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[Assistant] I know. He's, he's, trust me, I hear it all the time. I get it. I mean, I'm, I'm concerned too. I am. You know, I'm, I'm a believer in Joe Judge. I know I'm the minority there. And I can also say, honestly, the way he's looked the last few weeks, it's, it's not done him any favors. There's, it's not.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we'll see where it goes. They got a lot of decisions to make. Daniel Jones will be the first thing they got to do and they really got to flip around the roster in some certain areas to give themselves a fighting chance.


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[Assistant] Haha, yes, way to go. How did they do that? That was amazing. Not even playing anymore. Good job, way to add that in there.


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[Assistant] I was shocked at how much time he did miss down here. Right? Yea, I was. I mean, again, I'm not trying to judge, just didn't look like the most egregious ankle sprain I'd ever seen. Uh, you know, surprised that he at least wasn't able to play yesterday.


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[Assistant] This is, this is your fault Mike Tomlin. This is your fault. You did this to me. How dare you be such a good coach. Alright. But you're seriously mad respect to the Steelers. Mad respect. Alright, here we go.


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[Assistant] Good, uh, alright, good. So that's good, right? I didn't, you know, I cussed one foot. That was all I needed to do, right?


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[Assistant] All unbelievable and I was sitting there going, oh my gosh, the tie football game might save me. I'm sitting there getting ready for the post game show going, this might tie and I might not actually have


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[Assistant] You know me, I'm never shy about giving my opinions or making a stand about a football team.


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[Assistant] I really didn't see it with the Steelers. I really didn't.


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[Assistant] And honestly, I'm still not sure I see it, but they're here. It really is amazing. It really is. Uhm, I felt confident when I said it. I did, especially after that was what, right after the Bengals actually just stomped them into the ground. I think so, yeaah. I think it was that game where I just went, it's over, they're out of here.


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[Assistant] Don't do it. Don't do it. But what would you do? I don't know. I don't know what I would do. I'm not going to say anything right now. I'm not. In this type of year where we've seen teams do crazy things, we've seen Mahomes and the Chiefs be stupid, I'm not making any more proclamations there. I'm not.


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[Assistant] It's all rematch. It's all rematches. They've all played each other.


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[Assistant] So that's, I think, one interesting element. We got something to look to there to go, Hey, we've seen this matchup before. Of course, the Patriots build twice. Bangles don't beat the Raiders in Las Vegas.


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[Assistant] Uhm, oh no, and, and I'm, and we got the Cardinals Rams, I know the Bucks, uh, Eagles, or no, I'm thinking about AFC, and then of course we got the, uh, Steelers Chiefs. Hey, save it for Wednesday. Save it for Wednesday, I'm blabbering now, check us out on Wednesday, alright, we'll break down football, and we'll do the bracket, peace out, Ahmed, you the man, f*** your feet, alright, I've had enough of you, peace out, clap it up.


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[Assistant] Yo, yo, what's up? Come on, man. Subscribe on YouTube to Chris Simms Unbuttoned Podcast. I need you. Please hit the subscribe button, please.


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[Assistant] Hi, I'm Mike Tirico and thanks for watching. Make sure to hit subscribe for the latest news and highlights from NBC Sports.


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[Assistant] Watchin' the end of the Cowboys Niners. And I'm always thinkin' about what you guys might be doin' here in the studio. Right. And I know you guys came on the air at the bottom of the hour. Yeah. They got close to the top of the hour. And that Niners Cowboys game was comin' right down to the final seconds in a crazy...


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[Assistant] Well that, that walks us right to where we're starting with the five games. Let's begin in Dallas. Cowboys and Niners. I want to get to a number of different storylines. You have a lot of questions, a lot of discussions to have. Let's start with just this, this big picture thought. Did the better team win?


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[Assistant] It was, uh, it was such a crazy finish and people are talking about that part of it so much. What gets overlooked, I want to make sure that we spend some time here, at least a little bit. You kind of went there a little bit. Halfway through the second quarter, the Cowboys, number one scoring offense in the NFL, they had seven yards.


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[Assistant] This isn't halfway through the first quarter where like San Francisco had a long possession. Halfway through the second quarter, they had multiple times with the ball. They had seven yards. Did you see that more as Dallas failing to execute or did the front seven of the Niners just whip ass that much?


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[Assistant] You can be on cruise control in December based off of where you are in the division. It felt like they were a little bit, and that showed up right away, I thought.


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[Assistant] With, with, uh, San Francisco. Couple things I want to point out and get your reaction. You talked about the running game a little bit. Elliott and Pollard, 16 carries, 45 yards.


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[Assistant] And I love this, this question we have from Frank Knowles because it brings us to something that was so central in a giant moment in playoff weekend. He says, what makes Shanahan's running scheme different than others? The Cowboys knew a run was coming and they couldn't stop.


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[Assistant] Two other things to hit in this game, both quarterback related. Jimmy G, I was thinking about this on the drive to work. To me, B plus in that game. Start the bidding there, up or down.


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[Assistant] Made me think of, so I'm getting ready to call ski jumping in the Olympics. For every jump there's something called style points and there are five judges and after every jump


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[Assistant] You get style points based off of what those five say. The top scores thrown out.


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[Assistant] The bottom score thrown out, so I feel like if Jimmy G, if he could do that every game, throw out his worst play, doesn't count. Take out his best play, doesn't count. He kinda exists in this space that's usually above middle and pretty darn good if he could just take out one bad play. I know he can't do that, but he had one awful play.


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[Assistant] It's a long way to get the score. It's one of those, the point of a tight game, how many times you say it on a Sunday. Well, they don't turn it over, they win. Yeah. And they turn it over and now all of a sudden it's a game again. Okay, so that's Jimmy G. Saved the biggest part of the conversation for last. Dak Prescott, end of the game.


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[Assistant] It all made sense. It's interesting hearing about how the Patriots would work a practice like that. I didn't mind the call. I didn't hate it as much as most people. What bothered me is it didn't account for a couple things that, I mean,


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[Assistant] But again, it falls under the idea of some other kind of bullshit and the craziness at the end of the game might happen to throw you off a second or a second and a half. And that happened and that's how the final seconds ticked off. So, clever call in a lot of ways didn't account for the stuff that happens at the end of the game.


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[Assistant] And that was a perfect situation is walk up and say, you know what? It was, it was a crazy finish, but we weren't good enough for three, three quarters and nine tenths of the game. So it's on us. He usually does that. He does.


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[Assistant] You know the deal. I mean, that's the number one scoring offense in the league, like we talked about. I mean, that's frustration about they couldn't put the ball in the end zone for most of the game when it mattered.


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[Assistant] How about elsewhere in the NFC East? Let's do it. The other team that made the postseason, the Eagles. Let's go to Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay.


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[Assistant] I mean, it's fun to watch play a football no matter what, but this was never a contest. I hate saying the word, I'm not going to say it was easy, but there wasn't much resistance. There was a giant gap between the Eagles and the Buccaneers the entire game.


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[Assistant] The year's been a success already. Yea, right. I mean, look where they were a couple months ago. They weren't supposed to be there, so they made it to the postseason. And that sometimes those things don't show up on the field, those intangibles, but I thought it was just in a fierce way showed up. One team was all business, we got to get to where we're supposed to be in February, and the other was just kind of on bonus time. It's go time for the Bucs.


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[Assistant] First play, I mean, it came off the ball, I think the running back wasn't touched for 10 yards. Like if that was a spring practice on the other side of the ball, the coach would have stopped it. Like we don't practice that way.


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[Assistant] 4 man rushes and easy to decipher 5 man rushes in the first half.


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[Assistant] I think we have a, keep it going Chris. I think we have a graphic, Pete, that we can run on this about the Eagles top quarterbacks against the Eagles Z. It's astounding.


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[Assistant] I saw two things, you already brought up one of them, the lack of exotic pressures up front, Russian four or five guys. How many times are they going to play soft corner? I mean Brady's out there playing pitch and catch, like he's at practice. Time and time again.


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[Assistant] If we have an incompletion or sack, I'll take the 10 yard out later. Let me try and throw it across the middle a couple times.


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[Assistant] If there was a word bubble about the Eagles defense, a lot of the time, I know they had some sacks, they had some moments, but most of the time, it would have been, is it over yet?


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[Assistant] We've got the Hertz numbers here. Actually, I'm sorry, I jumped the gun there. Yeah, rushing first. We're looking at Eagles rushing, okay. So, yeah, number one, and then yesterday. Yeah, 17 rushes, 95 yards.


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[Assistant] So to your point of, okay, go ahead and throw it. When they did throw it, downfield, I mean, the numbers of 20 yards and downfield, 2 out of 12 for 63 yards. Yea, it was ugly. Yea.


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[Assistant] To me it kind of, it's all relative. How harsh do you want the evaluation of him to be? Is he good enough for the team to win more than they lose and to get to the playoffs? Yeah. And that's a big step in the right direction. Pat on the back, I mean that's real progress.


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[Assistant] I mean, who would have thought they were there four months ago? Yes, exactly. I think that should lead the way. I agree. Okay, are we going to win once we get to the playoffs? That's another question. Against Brady, against Stafford, against Rogers.


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[Assistant] Didn't even look close. So it's all how harsh do you want that evaluation to be?


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[Assistant] Yeah, there was a, and Brady was doing it, now again, Brady might be the best of all time, but he was doing that, he was throwing it earlier, he was throwing it with a lot more velocity, consistently, so it was hard to compare because it was such a glaring difference.


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[Assistant] And I remember, I think it was two, about two years ago, about now in the spring, we were back there evaluating the quarterbacks coming out, and I think you said about him, his arm looks like an independent contractor.


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[Assistant] And I've been kinda watching it a little bit and the ball when it needs to really fire out of there a lot of times doesn't. So I'm watching and it's like something in the mechanism when it's supposed to really torque in the lower body.


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[Assistant] And he's so early in his career, and as long as he was going opposite of Brady yesterday, and we talked about Brady throwing that comeback,


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[Assistant] Brady didn't have it like he has it now then, either. So I mean there's- You can, you can do it. Just because he can't do it now doesn't mean he can't take a couple steps toward being really good at that part of his game.


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[Assistant] I think mostly we're saying it was a good season. I know. And the parts where he's not great right now. Look at the best of all time. Brady, he wasn't, I mean, he was probably pretty good at it second year, but he's gotten a lot better at the release and the velocity.


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[Assistant] To the AFC. Ready for that trip here? Let's do it. Alright, let's go to the game last night. Chiefs against the Steelers. This one, I mean, it's fitting that it's coming on the heels of what we saw in Tampa. Cause this, I mean, it was close for a quarter. Right. There was that point. Yeah. Halfway through the second quarter was 7-0 Steelers where you kind of sat up and you're like,


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[Assistant] And clearly the answer was no. The jumping off point here from me to you, just like the last game, the gap was massive. Where was the difference the most noticeable in this game for you?


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[Assistant] Oh my gosh. Five passing touchdowns in 11-31, the fastest span NFL postseason history. That's insane.


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[Assistant] One thing I wrote down in my notes last night, Walsh, I'm always trying to find something that jumps out to me that's different. We know Mahomes is awesome. We know he and Reid can really work together well. Their passing game behind the line of scrimmage, all the ways they throw screens to all the different players, or even just get it out quickly.


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[Assistant] Behind the line of scrimmage, what they do is, is, I mean it sets up everything else so incredibly well.


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[Assistant] Some fun numbers to throw out here. Travis Kelsey, first player in NFL history to throw a touchdown, catch a touchdown, and have 100 receiving yards in a single playoff game.


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[Assistant] It was a nice, it was a nice warm-up weekend for watching Playoff Ball. These, these, the matchups we have coming, oh my gosh, it's awesome. That gets us right to our next game. Bills beat the Patriots. I'm glad we were just talking about Mahomes because even though there are a number of questions that will define where the AFC goes, I think the number one is,


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[Assistant] What are you gonna do about Mahomes? What are you gonna do about Josh Allen? Unless some defenses can figure out some answers to that.


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[Assistant] Oh my gosh. He was even more of a quarterback's quarterback in this game. That first game it was like...


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[Assistant] Put the cape on, give him an IV afterward, let him rest, he was everything. This time it was just right decision, right ball, let's do it again, okay, run it this time.


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[Assistant] Everything that you would define a quarterback by, he checked every box. I mean, it was, it was outstanding.


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[Assistant] I know, I know. Spraying it all over the goddamn field. Forgetting about things. Uh, more Josh Allen here. Two things that really stood out to me. There are two parts of that game that should have affected him. Number one, Bill Belichick defense. Right, right. And number two, you talked about the elements. I mean, it was zero degrees.


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[Assistant] Doesn't mean that you can't be okay, but I mean, even a great quarterback, you can expect him to be 10 to 20% lesser than in terms of how the footballs look out there, how the spirals cut through the air, where it's going. He wasn't affected a single bit. At all. Just shocking. It's shocking.


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[Assistant] How did that happen? How did it go from point A to point B without being effective?


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[Assistant] He A, covered so much ground and B, the nuance, and I get so angry, I never played defensive back, but these guys don't look back at the ball. I know. And he looked back at the ball just at the right time and had the athleticism to pick it off.


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[Assistant] I want to bring up one name here to give him the credit that he needs for this, for that performance and really the last month, that's Brian Dayball. I thought there were three things outside of Josh Allen throwing the ball that really stood out. They didn't forget about the running backs.


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[Assistant] They didn't overdo Josh with the running game. He was effective, he was a factor, but it wasn't too much of that. And the offensive line was good. Five or six weeks ago, we wouldn't have said any one of those three things.


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[Assistant] Thinking about how well he does in that role and how much he must be enjoying it, I don't know him, but if the organization came to him and said, here's a million more dollars, stay and be here,


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[Assistant] Coaching Josh Allen and having autonomy to run that offense or going to, to try and bring a team out of the doldrums. It's a miserable organization. I don't know which one, but pick one. I mean, I don't know, he probably wouldn't do it, but wouldn't you, wouldn't you enjoy life more if you stayed with a great quarterback with a lot of autonomy in your side of the ball?


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[Assistant] That would have been obvious to me. Okay, Orion Shuzzlewood says, I realize everyone was hot on them until a few weeks ago, but self-scout they self on the Pats as a dynasty, or their dynasty 2.0. Do you worry about Mack as a playoff quarterback in the elements going forward?


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[Assistant] But as for Mack Jones, I want to bring it back here. And it kind of relates to what we were talking about with Jalen Hurts as well. Now Mack had a better year throwing the ball than Jalen Hurts did.


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[Assistant] But, I'm going to ask it in the same kind of way I asked about Jalen Hurts. Great year for Mac Jones. Better than most people thought it was going to be. Okay, now how critical do you want to be with evaluation? Because in the AFC,


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[Assistant] If you're gonna go to where the Patriots expect to be in February, you gotta be Josh Allen. Right. You gotta be Patrick Mahomes. Right.


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[Assistant] So, even though he's better than people thought he might be, to get past those teams in mid to late January, do you think he holds them back?


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[Assistant] I sense a March, April, May podcast where we can just kind of really get into those, those kind of things.


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[Assistant] This is going to be a really fun offense to track in the next few months because what happens with Josh McDaniels? Right. Is he still going to be there? Right. What happens with the weapons around him? You talked about how they need a couple more. Do they bring those in through the draft of free agency and how much better can Mack


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[Assistant] Let's back up to the first game, Cincinnati against Las Vegas. That was a fun one to watch. It was. Bengals come up with a way down the stretch to win 26 to 19. Let's get right to it with Josh Burrow, his last four games. I'm sorry, Joe Burrow, his last four games. He's been just outstanding. Look at this. They haven't lost. Completion percentage 75.


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[Assistant] 11 touchdowns, no picks, and there were some stretches where the Bengals offense wasn't great during this game, but Joe and the Bengals offense, I thought they started out really, really well and set the tone.


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[Assistant] Let's focus on the other quarterback one that you and I both like quite a bit, Derek Carr. This question comes from John Isaac 55.


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[Assistant] For all the Derek Carr intangibles that are good, he does fumble a lot, has been terrible in the red zone forever. I think that's embellished, but that's what's written. How is he viewed around the league and what is his


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[Assistant] If the Raiders wanted to go a different direction, I don't know if it would be a good idea, but this is going to be a discussion looking ahead with Las Vegas. His trade value and his contracts, what do you, just like the first peek at it, we'll spend more time with it later. If they decided they wanted to go another route.


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[Assistant] Right. Okay, fine. The Raiders, the Browns are probably like, okay, we'll take it. Right. I don't think we need to speculate beyond that if we both feel like they'd be foolish to not hang on to it.


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[Assistant] Two votes, two votes here for it would be foolish to get rid of them. You can leave that one at that. Okay, Points Bet, our friends at Points Bet are going to help us with this next discussion. Super Bowl odds. Let me flash these guys up here, Pete, and see what we have at this point. Okay, the Chiefs.


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[Assistant] Little bit ahead of the Bills in the AFC, plus 400, the Bills plus 500. Top seed tightens at 900, interesting. In the NFC, the Packers are 375, and the Bucks 500. Who's your team there? Whoo, what jumps out to you?


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[Assistant] Let's go with a tiny little preview of one more game to pick. Cardinals Rams tonight. Chris said Arizona 27-24 on Thursday's pod. Point Spets says Rams negative three and a half. They're favored by a little more than a field goal. Over-under at 50.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna say that the naked over the, let's say 30. Yeaah. Okay, naked over the age of 30 to sleep, less than 10%. Is it really?


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[Assistant] PFTPM, Chris Sims Unbuttoned, a joint Megapix podcast.


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[Assistant] You know, recent weeks we've been going through 16 games in an hour. We got some time to let it breathe. And I got some time to do a victory lap because the regular season is over.


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[Assistant] And somebody got smoked like a joint from your stash. Look at this.


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[Assistant] Look at the yellow. The yellow is good, the white is bad. Yellow, yellow, yellow. Yellow, yellow, yellow. Thank you. Thank you. We suck at best bet.


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[Assistant] When one runner is faster than the other, the longer the race means the greater the margin when the race finally ends.


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[Assistant] Super wild card week and super duper wild card week. Is that what they're calling it?


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[Assistant] They're trying to get people to call it Super Wild Card Weekend. Right, okay. No, no, because there's six games. Yeah, woah, super now. Super Wild Card Weekend. Yeah, right.


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[Assistant] Uh, and eventually there will be, I believe, eight games in Super Wild Card Weekend. It's just a matter of time before they recognize having six standalone windows isn't nearly as lucrative as having eight. But six...


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[Assistant] This is the first year ever that we've got the Monday night playoff game. And I think once they get a taste of the ratings on Monday night, what we're gonna see in the divisional round is a Monday night game.


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[Assistant] And we're eventually, I believe, going to see conference championships, not back to back on Sunday, Sunday night, Monday night, because it's going to be a gigantic difference to take over prime time on back to back nights. And I think it's over under is three years before both


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[Assistant] The division around weekend and conference championship weekend move a game to Monday night.


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[Assistant] So six games is six chances for Chris to narrow the margin. I have clinched the straight up. You can't beat me on straight up. Even if we disagree on all 13 postseason games and you're right and I'm wrong, you can't catch me.


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[Assistant] The Saturday late afternoon game on NBC, the Las Vegas Raiders taking on the Cincinnati Bengals. This is a compelling game in my mind. The Raiders, a great story, the way that they got into the playoffs.


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[Assistant] The car accident that claimed the life of a 23 year old woman and her dog was just horrible and it created distractions and adversity and the Raiders survived it all to get to the postseason. They are the five seed after winning on Sunday night. The Bengals are the four seed. The Bengals are five point favorites. The line has crept


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[Assistant] Let me, let me, let me ask you, let me ask you some questions and share my perspective here, cause I agree with you, they have to keep the Raiders pass rush away from Joe Burrow. Right.


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[Assistant] That game was played so long ago though. Both teams have changed since then. They've gotten better since then. They both have gotten better since then. I think the issue with the Bengals has been consistency and what we've seen from the Bengals and Joe Burrow told me after they beat the Ravens, I think it was week seven in Baltimore when, you know,


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[Assistant] We've had several different occasions this year where we've said to ourselves, hey, the Bengals are pretty damn good and they proceed to lose the following week. Sometimes two in a row the fall, you know, the following two games.


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[Assistant] Week 7 against the Ravens, whenever it was that they went to Baltimore, that was when he first started to notice the heavy double teams of Jamar Chase, which opened up the rest of the offense, whether it was Joe Mixon running the ball, or T. Higgins, Tyler Boyd, CJ Uzama contributes a splash play from time to time.


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[Assistant] And we saw what happened when the Chiefs didn't commit to taking away Jamar Chase the historic day that he had, which really nailed down the offensive rookie of the year award for him.


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[Assistant] What do you think the Raiders will do about Chase, and if they over-correct to take away Chase, will they leave too many openings in the rest of the offense for Joe Burrow?


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[Assistant] As to Sunday was, the Raiders are much better off.


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[Assistant] Now when we saw that back in week one, week two, they had the overtime game at home against the Ravens. They went to Pittsburgh the following week. I said, there's no way. They got no chance against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Home opener for the Steelers. They had just beaten the Bills. They're traveling across the country. They played late into


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[Assistant] The night on Monday, and of course the Raiders won the game 26-17 straight up. So, I don't know how much stock I put in that, but it's not easy.


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[Assistant] It can't be easy when you have a tough grinded out win with your playoff life on the line. You win it literally.


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[Assistant] At the 70 minute mark and you gotta pick it all up and turn it around and come up with a game plan and figure out what you're going to do and get your guys healed and get your team ready and have it rested and take on a Bengals team that was able


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[Assistant] To rest some of its guys. They folded the 10s for the most part against the Cleveland Browns in week 18. I think that's a huge factor that can't be overlooked here, because I was saying going into that game on Sunday, you can make the argument for either one. You could argue.


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[Assistant] They're better off facing the Bengals. You could argue they're better off with the extra day.


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[Assistant] And playing a Chiefs team that they know very well, that they beat at Arrowhead Stadium in 2020. I know a lot's changed since then, but...


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[Assistant] It's not like it's an automatic W for the Chiefs if the Raiders had come to town. It's not an automatic W for the Bengals. Alright, flip it over to when the Raiders have the ball. We've seen different guys step up from time to time this year. Derek Carr has played well more often than not. Josh Jacobs.


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[Assistant] Has done a good job in the running game. Darren Waller needs to get healthier and be more of a contributor than he was earlier in the season, but what do you think about the Bengals defense against the Raiders offense?


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[Assistant] He had 116 yards. That was a season high for Darren Waller when they met in week 11. He played week 12. Didn't play week 13 through 17. Was back for week 18. Two catches for 22 yards on nine targets. So working to get back into a rhythm and a chemistry with Derek Carr and I don't know how much


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[Assistant] The Raiders can really count on him. Now, if this is the week that the switch flips,


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[Assistant] It could be a problem for the Bengals. Right, right. If Darren Waller is healthy and able to make a difference. But, you know, the vibe changes when the season's on the line. It does.


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[Assistant] And the Raiders just played a game where the season was on the line, even though the tie would have still gotten them in, they had to get in position to tie, they had to hold off the furious charge by the...


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[Assistant] Now, Joe Burrow told me a few weeks ago that they viewed some of these late regular season games like playoff games, because they don't have playoff experience. But see, they're getting their playoff introduction against a team that


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[Assistant] For the most part has guys who don't have playoff experience either. It's new for them. Derek Carr didn't play in the game five years ago because he had broken his ankle.


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[Assistant] In week 17, and wasn't available for the postseason game the following weekend, so there's a lot of


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[Assistant] Of inexperience for both teams in this one and you know.


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[Assistant] Look, you go ahead, go ahead and make your pick.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I got 31 17. I think this one is eventually going to go the Bengals way and get away from the Raiders. I think that there'll be a point in the second half where they just kind of.


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[Assistant] Let the air out of the tires and, uh, you know, a, a, a Jamar Chase big catch here, a Joe Mixon touchdown run there and that 14 point margin is gonna happen. So we agree on the outcome. We disagree on the spread. You've got the Raiders. I've got the Bengals. Okay.


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[Assistant] Saturday night, two degrees in Orchard Park, New York for round three. Forty days apart for three games between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots, the sixth seed. The Bills, the three seed. The Bills, obviously the AFC's champions.


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[Assistant] Go ahead and start us off. Let's look at first. Bills have the ball. What do the Patriots do?


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[Assistant] Significant stat as far as I'm concerned. Josh Allen.


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[Assistant] In four of the last five games, starting with the game after the Monday night loss to the Patriots at home, in four of the last five games, he has had more rushing yards than in any of the games before.


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[Assistant] In any one game. So they started letting him run earlier to try to supplement the passing game and also to make up for some of the deficiencies in the passing game. We saw three interceptions against the Falcons in the game where he had those 81 rushing yards and two touchdowns. I think they better be ready to deal with Josh Allen as a runner. And when he runs it,


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[Assistant] They better be ready to treat him like a running back. No doubt. And again, you know, this is a slippery slope. People get triggered and up in arms when you talk about hitting a quarterback like a running back, but if he's gonna take advantage of being a running back,


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[Assistant] We talked about this earlier on PFT Live, but do we trust a Mac Jones offense as a rookie in his playoff debut against the Buffalo Bills?


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[Assistant] Yeah, and they are gonna have to run the ball and control the clock and keep Josh Allen on the sidelines to take some steam out of the offense that way. I'm gonna go ahead and make my pick. I'm making my pick. Okay, cool.


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[Assistant] This is pasta and meatballs light, cause I don't think this is a major stretch to come to the conclusion that Bill Belichick finds a way.


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[Assistant] That, that tightness, you know, when you're the favorite, when you're the home team, when you're the one that's supposed to advance and it's your nemesis that you, you know, it's like trying to beat your big brother in ping pong, even though they won.


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[Assistant] At Foxboro earlier this year, this is playoff football. This is facing your big brother in ping pong with a trophy on the line or the pursuit of a trophy on the line.


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[Assistant] I think the Patriots win this one. It reminds me a little bit of Giants Bills from Super Bowl 25 where you neutralize the K-Gun offense by keeping it on the sideline. And maybe you dare them to run the ball even though they have been running it better. Twenty to nineteen, why not?


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[Assistant] And you know, I just remembered I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl to start the season, and usually my approach is, as long as my Super Bowl winner is still alive, I don't pick against them. Oh well, that was four months ago, and I'd forgotten about it. Let's take a break. Sunday afternoons, playoff games. Eagles, Bucs, 49ers, Cowboys, when PFTPM and Chris Simpson's unbuttoned continues right after this.


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[Assistant] BFTPM, Chris Simms unbuttoned. Sunday afternoon playoff games. Three games on Sunday. Three on Sunday. We're gonna start with the two that will be played. One o'clock and 4.15, 4.30 ish. The early game. Philadelphia Eagles at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


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[Assistant] The bucks are eight and a half point favorites over the seven seeds in the NFC over under a 46. Forecast calls for rain.


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[Assistant] From 49 to 46, but it also caused the line to bump in Tampa Bay's favor from minus seven and a half to minus eight and a half. Which is surprising right? That makes no sense.


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[Assistant] So I think that it actually would help the Eagles, and it plays into the hands of the Eagles from the standpoint of their approach, which it should be, and we talked about this on PFT Live. Run the ball.


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[Assistant] Run the ball. Run the ball. Take the full 40 seconds. Keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. Make him anxious and frustrated when he's on the field. Let's revisit the Eagles.


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[Assistant] Offense, which is very different than what the Buccaneers saw in week six on a Thursday night. They've embraced what they do well. They run the ball well. The Buccaneers do largely the injury haven't been as good. You know, I think one of the keys for Tampa Bay, if they want to repeat, the defense has to step up like it did last year.


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[Assistant] And this is going to be a great early test. It almost kind of reminds me of that Washington game last year. It's going to take a fight for the Buccaneers to establish their footing and lay the foundation for what comes next.


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[Assistant] The Buccaneers offense because it really has a different vibe than it had a year ago where


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[Assistant] You could take Mike Evans out and put Antonio Brown in. You could take Chris Godwin out and put Scottie Miller in. You could put Rob Gronkowski out and put Cameron Braid in and it never missed a beat. You could alternate Ronald Jones and Leonard Fernet and you could trust both guys to do what needed to be done.


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[Assistant] This year, there's less of that vibe that whoever's out there on the field is gonna make it happen. And I do feel like, and somebody explained to me, this is...


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[Assistant] What happens as the offense gravitates to more Tom Brady centric.


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[Assistant] That last year it was less Brady based, so there was more of a distribution. Yeah.


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[Assistant] As it- as it gravitates more toward Brady being in charge, he develops his favorites, he develops his guys, he develops-


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[Assistant] Guys he trusts a little more than others, and through time, it's more passes to Mike Evans, more passes to Rob Gronkowski. And I just, I worry about that because it makes the offense a little more predictable and gives the Eagles better cues on who they need to focus on trying to take away.


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[Assistant] And, and they need to be more flexible, I think. Bottom line, Tom Brady needs to be more flexible, spreading the ball around to who's open and not trying to get it to one of the guys he feels more comfortable with.


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[Assistant] Idea, 27-17, Buccaneers win, Buccaneers cover. It just feels inevitable, which likely means the Philadelphia Eagles, which were the last team left when we did our Super Bowl confidence draft with all 14 teams in the pool. Uh, the Eagles we expect to be out by Sunday.


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[Assistant] Late afternoon, middle afternoon, the big game, uh, middle afternoon, the 49ers at the Cowboys.


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[Assistant] Uh, just old school vibes, the catch. It was 40 years ago this week. They had all those great NFC championship games in the 90s. The Cowboys are three point favorites. The 49ers on the road, 51 point over under. Uh, let's start with...


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[Assistant] Let's start with 49ers offense against Cowboys defense, especially because we've got Kyle Shanahan.


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[Assistant] Who previously coordinated the Falcons offense for Dan Quinn, who was the head coach of the Falcons. Quinn's now the coordinator of the defense in Dallas.


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[Assistant] Who has a larger dossier of information about the other guy? Is it Shanahan knowing what Quinn does, or is it Quinn knowing what Shanahan does?


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[Assistant] Yeah, and look, we see it time and again, the way that Kyle Shanahan orchestrates the run defense. I'm curious to see how much, or the run offense. I'm curious to see how much he's going to trust Jimmy Garoppolo. Is it going to be a Bob Greasy type game? Where it's just run it, run it, run it, run it. And I agree with you. I think that Shanahan,


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[Assistant] Knows Quinn better than Quinn knows Shanahan. I think about the Shanahan McVeigh.


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[Assistant] And he's paying closer attention to them than they are to him. And he's gonna find a way to make that offense go. And, and there's also a certain value. We've talked about it in multiple games now.


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[Assistant] And George Kittle. Right. Get those guys involved and, and the Cowboys defense may not have any answers.


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[Assistant] I feel like what they did on Saturday against the Eagles, where the Eagles basically weren't playing anyone. Right. It was a confidence builder game for the offense. I think so. Yeaah. Right? Yeaah. Right. Cause they, they, they, they, and I think they feared the Cardinals.


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[Assistant] Yes, yes I am. And, uh, I have greater faith in the 49ers. We've been saying it all year. You don't want them in the playoffs if you're one of the teams in the NFC. And they had their chance. They had their chance. The Rams were up 17-0.


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[Assistant] It was over. It was done. The Saints were beating the Falcons.


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[Assistant] The 49ers are losing to the Rams, and it would have been the Saints instead of the 49ers in the playoff field. What a difference that would be for the other teams. The 49ers begin their reign of terror through the NFC playoff field with a win at Dallas, and they're gonna make somebody else very nervous next week. And the way it plays out, if the Bucs win, it means it's San Francisco.


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[Assistant] All right, let's go ahead and take a break. We have the two Sunday night, Monday night games, the Poston meatballs game in Kansas City, possibly. And the first Monday night playoff game in NFL history, unless there was one that I've forgotten, but I don't think there was. We'll be back with more PFTPM and Chris Sims on button right after this.


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[Assistant] PFTPM, Chris Sims on Button presented by Under Armour. We've reached the point in the Joint Megapix Podcast where Chris tells you all about Under Armour as I wait patiently every day like a dog waiting for its master to come home. I am waiting for my hoodie and shoes from Under Armour and I have faith that eventually they'll arrive.


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[Assistant] Click clack, click clack. We're almost through with the Super Wild Card weekend, Super Duper Wild Card weekend. Let's start with Sunday Night Football.


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[Assistant] The Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seven Seeds. 20 point underdogs. Actually, 12 and a half. Ben Roethlberger says 20. 12 and a half. He rounded up.


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[Assistant] Uh, the Chiefs, the home teams, the favorites, they blew out the Steelers in week 16, the day after Christmas, over under a 46. It's the biggest spread of the Super Wild Card weekend.


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[Assistant] Chris, I know how you feel about this one. Yeah. I know what you think. Go ahead and give me the summary of why you think the Chiefs are gonna win. I don't know whether or not you think the Chiefs are gonna cover, but I know you think the Chiefs are gonna win. Let me hear why.


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[Assistant] How many times this- Isn't that funny that the Italians are the only ones whose accent can be mocked anymore? When do-


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[Assistant] How many times this year have I sat in this chair and talked about


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[Assistant] The fact that 50 years of living in and around Pittsburgh


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[Assistant] Playoff run. I got caught up in what was happening because it was so special. It was unexpected. I gravitate toward the underdog. I gravitate toward the downtrodden. I gravitate toward the disregarded. And that's what they were in 2005. And that was the Jerome Bettis final year.


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[Assistant] Ben Roethlberger convinced them to come back for one more year. They go win a Super Bowl and they, even though they were 11 and 5, they barely made it. They made it by the skin of their nails into the playoffs that year. And they had to go on the road to Cincinnati and win. They had to go to Indianapolis. The Colts were the best team in football that year.


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[Assistant] Officials handed in that game, that's a different story altogether. But you gotta start somewhere. And...


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[Assistant] What I'm walking into here. Yeah. And I understand how it's gonna look on Sunday night when everyone makes their picks and it's red, red, red, red, red all across the board and there's gonna be one. Bring it out, baby! Woo!


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[Assistant] Ready for the pasta. Oh, good. You got the boss of meatballs in front of you. I got another one. Whoa, we're doing it, baby. We are doing it. Yes, we are. I have faith. 2724 and an early, there's going to be something early and I'm not even going to text you.


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[Assistant] You're gonna know. It's gonna happen. If, if it's gonna go this way. If it's gonna go this way, something's gonna happen early that makes you say, holy shit. And, uh, I'm, I, I am willing to put my


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[Assistant] Not money, but my pride, my reputation, whatever, whatever you want to call it. I'm putting it on the line.


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[Assistant] And I'm defying the point spread, I'm defying you, I'm defying all logic and reason, because sometimes you just go out and play football. And sometimes the X's and O's and the matchups, it doesn't matter. Because you got Mike Tomlin, you got Ben Roethlisberger for his last ride, you have that magic that somehow was in the air.


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[Assistant] On that Monday night, when Ben Roethlisberger said his farewell to Hines Field, that's gotten bottled up inside those players. They're in the playoffs when they shouldn't be. Dangerous, dangerous, dangerous, dangerous for the Chiefs. Dangerous for the Chiefs. And it's more dangerous than Patrick Mahomes saying, well, we're not taking them lightly. Of course you're not taking them lightly.


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[Assistant] It's dangerous for the Chiefs. Alright, Monday Night Football. Arizona at the Rams. These two teams split in the regular season. Each team winning on the road. The Cardinals very happy to be on the road. They lost five in a row at home to finish the season.


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[Assistant] Ram's four point favorites over under 49 and a half. Chris, I know you were struggling with this one earlier. Who you got?


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[Assistant] I, uh, I'm taking the 3024 and I'm going with the rams. I, I just, I have a little more faith in the rams right now than I do the cardinal. They were 10 and 2.


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[Assistant] And they fell apart. And when we were talking about this earlier during PFT Live, Matt Casey made a good point. The win over the Cowboys was kind of the aberration, uh, the, the, the false indication that the Cardinals had figured things out. Hey look, they had a chance to win the division and they lost it home to the Seahawks.


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[Assistant] That's a problem. So I believe in the Rams, even though Matthew Stafford has his flaws. Without DeAndre Hopkins, that limits the Arizona offense. I'll take the Rams.


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[Assistant] Let's take a break. Best bets in Folsom Prison Blues when PFTPM and Chris Sims unbuttoned continue.


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[Assistant] Best bet's time and we gotta go fast because Pete did a bad job of getting us to shut up. We only got 30 seconds. Chris, gimme your two best bets. 49ers all.


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[Assistant] I still think they're gonna get it done. That's it! Enjoy the games this weekend!


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[Assistant] To have time to let it breathe, to have time to go back and forth, to not get rushed by Pete, although we inevitably will because we'll piss away way too much time. Yes, on an early game. As we always do. Right, no doubt. We're like Congress.


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[Assistant] The more money you have to spend, the more money you do spend, so the deficit ends up being even larger. So, even with only four games today, Pete will eventually be calculating how much time we have left to rush through and talk like the guy from the old FedEx commercials to wrap up


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[Assistant] The program. Do you remember the old FedEx commercials? I think we've talked about those before. I don't, I don't know. You're too young. Well no way, but like what are you talking about? Like what, what about them?


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[Assistant] There was a series of FedEx commercials, I think it was mid to late 80s, where the guy talked really, really, really fast. And that was his skill. That was the one thing that this guy did well. He spoke incredibly quickly. And that was the whole bitch of FedEx.


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[Assistant] And it won't cause you to talk really quickly, it will cause you to talk really slowly, like we have the luxury to do today, although we're probably a few minutes less luxurious because we've been talking about things other than the division round. But you know what, we should talk about the super wild card round, at least the- We had a good weekend.


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[Assistant] Aftermath, we actually did. You were 5-1. Hey, if the Cardinals had come through for you, you would have been 6-0. I was 4-2 straight up because I made two stupid picks, I trusted the Patriots when I should have taken the Bills, and I let that


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[Assistant] And you know, it was a combination of I did have a gut feeling that the Steelers could make it interesting, and for 15 minutes they did. And part of it was I just kinda wanted to have some fun.


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[Assistant] I really did. I wanted to have some fun. I shouldn't have picked them. I admit that in hindsight, but I still had a mild gut feeling and I would have hated myself if they had won that game and I hadn't picked them. So I live with it. It's fine. You gained no ground. You gained one game in the category where I'm not 14.


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[Assistant] I took the bucks. You also had, who else did you have? You had the Chiefs to cover and you got that. Right. Uh, so we were perfect on best bets, but, uh, and, uh, not a bad weekend, not a bad weekend. I'm getting closer and closer to the finish line though. Only seven games left.


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[Assistant] Only seven games left for this weekend. Let's get to it. It all begins on Saturday afternoon, 4 30 PM Eastern Cincinnati Bengals at the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been installed by points bet as three and a half point favorites with an over under a 47.5


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[Assistant] I mentioned earlier today, I have two that I feel good about, I have two that I don't. This is one of the ones about which I feel good, which means this will be the first one of the weekend on which I am completely wrong. Who do you like in the first game to start off the divisional round?


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[Assistant] I'm fascinated by Joe Burrow. I'm fascinated by the fact that he is maturing, developing, progressing, elevating before our eyes. The magic he brings to the postseason arena. What he did at LSU in his second season. What he did last week against the Raiders. Just enough now.


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[Assistant] Troubled by the fact that they let the Raiders hang around, and maybe that's a Bengals defense issue, but it's also, also


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[Assistant] The absence of killer instinct early. I had that thought.


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[Assistant] The Bengals could have laid the lumber to the Raiders and really pulled away and blown them out. So, the Bengals, if they have opportunities,


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[Assistant] To score touchdowns, they need touchdowns, not field goals. And I'm not saying go for it on fourth down. I'm not saying that. I'm saying get the touchdown on third down. Get the first down on third down. Keep the drives alive. You've got the weapons to do it. And maybe you're going to have a hard time running the football with Joe Mixon.


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[Assistant] Jamar Chase, you've got T Higgins, you've got Tyler Bord, you've got C.J. Uzama, you've got the weapons, and Joe Burrow's got


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[Assistant] The Moxie. And he's got the fearlessness. He doesn't know he's not supposed to be as far as he's progressed. To me that makes the offense dangerous.


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[Assistant] But they can't squander opportunities. When they get opportunities to score touchdowns this week, they have to take advantage of them or they'll lose.


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[Assistant] And I don't know whether they will. I don't know whether they will. Because they didn't at home against a lesser defense. So yea, they won the game, but that doesn't mean they've unlocked


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[Assistant] Let's celebrate on the other side because it's been nine games that Derrick Henry hasn't played for the Tennessee Titans. By all indications, he will...


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[Assistant] Be back in the Bengals defense. Not special. Good. Not great. And they don't have Larry Ogunjobi.


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[Assistant] And Derek Henry did I mention he's back. And I think that, that makes it, that makes a potentially gigantic difference. Titans have been fine without him. Deontay Foreman's come on. It's been great to see. Former Texas guy who had 2,000 yards back in 2016, 17-ish. Never really caught on in the NFL. Finally flourishing. But if Derek Henry's healthy,


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[Assistant] Watch out. Watch out for one of those 80 yard runs, bust through the front line, get past the second level, and good luck chasing him down.


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[Assistant] We, we, we were fascinated by the potential of this Tennessee offense from the moment


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[Assistant] They traded for Julio Jones. Not that Jones has been a godsend for the Titans, but you get Jones, you get Brown, you get Henry, you got a problem. You got a problem. And Ryan Tannehill is just good enough to make it go. Right. And uh, and uh, look, we did our quarterback confidence draft earlier in the week.


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[Assistant] Do, do we, between Burrow and Tannehill, do we have faith that Tannehill can make big throw, big spot, if and when he needs to do that? Get a touchdown instead of a fee?


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[Assistant] I got 2417 Titans, so we are on the same page there. And they, just two years ago.


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[Assistant] Saw what happens when the one seed gets complacent. When the one seed isn't ready. When the one seed lets its guard down.


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[Assistant] And gets caught by that George McFly roundhouse and they get turned into Biff and they can't


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[Assistant] The rest of this, it's a tough road. Yeah. And, hey, you know,


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[Assistant] Whoever wins this game is gonna have to go to Kansas City, well, if it's the Bengals, they'll have to go to Kansas City or Buffalo. Obviously the Titans would be hosting the AFC Championship, but if the Bengals pull this off, they know that they're going on the road again. They know that they got a potential problem.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I, I, I think that those intangibles will be a real factor and the Titans will end up winning the game. That's one of the ones that I felt pretty good about. Here's one of the ones that I, I, I initially didn't feel good about, but as we got closer and closer to the end of the week, I began to feel better about it. 49ers at the Packers. The line has been moving.


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[Assistant] Farther and farther in Green Bay's direction, minus six now, the Packers are at home, Lambeau Field. Biggest spread of the week, over under 47. Let's start with...


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[Assistant] 49ers offense, Green Bay's defense. And Green Bay may have been getting some guys back like Zedarius Smith, Whitney Merciless, Jair Alexander would be huge. What do you see?


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[Assistant] When it comes to the matchup of Kyle Shanahan's offense and Joe Berry's defense.


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[Assistant] He's got the shoulder problem now, which happened from the Cowboys game. Look, it was 23-7, Brandon Iooks open, Jimmy Garoppolo misses him. Then, it's 23-10, and he sails the ball over a receiver's head, it's intercepted by the Cowboys, yada yada yada, 23-17, and they got to sweat and pray and hope


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[Assistant] That they don't ultimately blow it. And it was another Garoppolo mistake. There were two mistakes. One helped them, one hurt them. One that helped them was the low pass to George Kittle on the play that resulted in the fumble the Cowboys recovered. Thank God, Jimmy Garoppolo misfired a screen pass. And then there was Garoppolo rushing the fourth and inches before Trent Williams could get set, pushing back the 49ers and forcing them to punt late. So Garoppolo


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[Assistant] That's what they can count on. Unless he's injured, and then it's Trey Lance being thrown to the Wolves, and the only good thing there is he played college football at North Dakota State, so maybe he won't be affected by the cold if it is cold, and it should be cold at Lambeau Field. But I just, the quarterback position to me, I mean, you know, we talked during PFT Live today about the coaching matchups, well,


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[Assistant] Jimmy Garoppolo Aaron Rodgers. I mean, there isn't a Sharpie big enough to make the check that goes on the side of the Packers ledger on that one.


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[Assistant] No, I-I-I like good quarterback play, and I'll point out when we don't get good quarterback play. And why are we acting like this guy's a great quarterback when he's clearly not? The evidence has been in front of our eyes between the inability to stay healthy. Right.


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[Assistant] The failure to hit Emmanuel Sanders with a championship on the line. The fact that he freaked out Kyle Shanahan in the divisional round in 2019 with what should have been three interceptions all by Eric Kendricks and they turned him into Bob Greasy for the rest of that game and all of the next game.


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[Assistant] He barely threw the ball in the NFC championship. Are you kidding me? Well, it could have been the Super Bowl MVP. Yeah, well, it's his fault that he wasn't. So I just, I get exhausted by the 49ers fans who are so obsessed with the


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[Assistant] Let me just say one thing, and this pains me to say.


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[Assistant] But this will tell you that there's no bias here. This is truth telling by me.


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[Assistant] If, if Kyle hadn't allowed himself to be talked into Jimmy Garoppolo and had waited for Kirk Cousins like he had wanted to do, they would have two more Super Bowl rings already in San Francisco.


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[Assistant] Alright, so here we are. The time to make the picks. I get the impression we're both picking the Packers. The question is, who wins on the spread?


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[Assistant] Prediction. I've gone back and forth and back and forth and back and forth. I've settled in Green Bay 2720, meaning Green Bay wins, Green Bay covers, but I can also see it being


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[Assistant] 23-20 late, maybe Aaron Rodgers gets Matt LaFleur to pass on the field goal and go for it on 4th down and go for the win. You know, a sore point from last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But I think that it won't even be at that level. I think, like you said, Aaron Rodgers keenly aware of his legacy.


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[Assistant] This whole season is wasted if they don't take care of business against the 49ers. They know all too well what has happened to them in the past when they've had to play out there.


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[Assistant] But I think there's a difference. That's why home field advantage matters, even when the full season numbers are out of whack and it looks like it doesn't. For a game like this, it does. Playing at Lambeau Field, advantage Packers. Packers win 27-20.


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[Assistant] And you know what, I would feel differently about it, possibly if it were for a berth in the Super Bowl, but division around, I think the Packers...


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[Assistant] PFTPM, Chris Sims on Button, Joint Megapix Podcast for the Divisional Round. And we're talking about one game and one game only in this segment. It is our game. The game that you'll see on NBC and Peacock at 3pm Eastern on Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


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[Assistant] Much better game than if the Cardinals had won that game on Monday night. If the Cardinals had won that game on Monday night, whatever the spread is, I'd be taking the Buccaneers to cover, no question. Now, it's the Rams who beat the Buccaneers.


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[Assistant] Brady was when he was with the Patriots against McVeigh as coach of the Rams. Now 0-2 is Brady with the Buccaneers against McVeigh. This one? This one?


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[Assistant] Is one of those ones where I, I have gone back and forth. I have been like watching a tennis match all week going back and forth between the Rams and the Bucks, the Rams and the Bucks, and we have finally reached the point where


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[Assistant] When the Buccaneers have the ball and the Rams are playing defense, what are we gonna see?


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[Assistant] Well and the problem is the Buccaneers backfield continues to be banged up. Leonard Fernet did not fully emerge from injured reserve for the wild card round. He's active in a practice, but he's not yet activated to the roster. You've got


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[Assistant] So there's gonna be a temptation to try to throw throw and throw. I know, you're right. And the offensive line. Hey, injury issues as well. Damn. Ryan Jensen, no practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. Tristan Wirfs, I'll be shocked if he plays. I will be too. He tried to hobble out there on one leg. He had nothing. And I think he probably made it worse.


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[Assistant] And you're talking about a, you know, a one week turnaround. If he's healthy enough to play, he may not make it through the game. Not with the guys he's gonna have to block.


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[Assistant] So, this is gonna be all on Tom Brady. This is yet another legacy advancing game for Brady.


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[Assistant] I'll say one and a half is the over under on the number of Chuck and Duck throws by Tom Brady on Sunday as he's getting swarmed by the Rams front seven.


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[Assistant] You're right though, they've got to trust the running game, they've got a plan to run the ball, they've got to stick with it, and they can't let Brady's desire to take the game over potentially wreck the game for the Buccaneers.


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[Assistant] Well, Cam Akers, I think, is the key member of the offense for the LA Rams. Can he run the ball? Can he get yardage? Can he move the pile?


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[Assistant] Uh, you don't have a lot of, of distance to cover. You're getting a quick score like the pick six they got. You're not in a position where you have to do all that much in the passing game. They're gonna have to do more in the passing game this week, and that's where


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[Assistant] When all else fails, I go back to the quarterbacks. And just like it's Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo, it's Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and I'm not saying Stafford is a stiff,


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[Assistant] But eight touchdowns, eight interceptions, the last four games of the regular season. I think Stafford is going to make a key mistake. Will he overcome it? That, that remains to be seen. But I think at some point in the game, we're going to see a big mistake from Matthew Stafford that's going to help the Buccaneers and may end up being the difference maker.


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[Assistant] Yeah, 11 to 5 is the final score I pick for this one. No, I'm not doing 11 to 5.


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[Assistant] And here's one of the reasons why I'm taking the bucks. All else fails. I go back to my picks pre-season.


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[Assistant] Patrick Mahomes, their latest encounter in the postseason, will break down Bills at Chiefs when PFTPM and Chris Sims on Button continue.


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[Assistant] The home team favored by a mere one and a half points, which means, neutral sight, the Bills would be the favorite. Over under 54 and a half, by far the highest over under of the league, and I actually think it's going to be over. Maybe one of my best bets will be the over.


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[Assistant] In Bill's Chiefs, cause I think 54 and a half is a little low. That's, that's a little low. That's a little low.


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[Assistant] That's a little low, and then I don't have to commit. I like that, I don't have to commit. Uhm, regardless, we'll, we'll, uh, we'll figure out the best bets later. For now, let's do Chiefs have the ball, Bills on defense. What do you got?


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[Assistant] Clyde Edwards O'Leary is moving back toward being able to play. He fully participated in practice on Wednesday. Jarek McKinnon was the wild card, the X factor for the Chiefs on Sunday night against the Steelers. But you're right, they are going to have to run the ball and maybe they're the team. Isn't it weird to think? Yes. Isn't it weird to think?


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[Assistant] Gladly take, I mean, full blown west coast offense. Take your time. Chunks, chunks, chunks. Keep Josh Allen on the sidelines so he is


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[Assistant] This isn't the wild card round. The planets lined up for you that night. They're all out of whack tonight. So if you can disrupt that early, maybe you have a chance if you're the chiefs to outscore them.


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[Assistant] Uh, after beating the Bills in the, in the AFC Championship game, taking it all in, and uh, assuming he doesn't test positive for COVID, now, not that anybody's testing positive for COVID, that's not, that's not, uh, that's just all coincidental that nobody's testing positive anymore.


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[Assistant] One thing that horrified me on Sunday were the images of Stefan Diggs at the Cowboys 49ers game, maskless with a bunch of people maskless in his face.


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[Assistant] I hope he doesn't test positive between now and Sunday night. He could be a huge factor in this game because he's hungry. This is his moment. This is his chance. And it was more Dawson Knox the other night.


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[Assistant] Made your pasta and meatballs. OracleGru. Uh, let's take a break. Best Vets and Folsom Prison Blues pick one. PFTPM and Kristin's up, but continue right after this.


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[Assistant] You've got the 49ers and the Rams. I've got the Bucks and the Packers. We both agree on the Titans over the Bengals and the Bills over the Chiefs. I kind of hinted at it when I went with my reasoning for Tampa Bay since I picked the Buccaneers to get to the Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] I'm, I'm going, I'm retreating back to my basic principles. I am going to defer to how I believed in September.


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[Assistant] If those teams are still alive, I'm gonna keep riding them. Alright, it's time to ride the best bets. Two this week out of the four games, either a team against the spread or an over-under. Chris, you're up.


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[Assistant] Titans for me, given three and a half to the Bengals, I think they easily cover the spread.


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[Assistant] It's time for the, for the chariot to turn back into the pumpkin that matches the color of the Bengal's helmet on Saturday. Great job by the Bengals. They'll be a Super Bowl contender next year. This year the ride ends and the Titans become a team that very well could make it to the Super Bowl. So give me the Titans. Okay, that's a good one.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna do something I rarely do. I rarely do it. You're going the over.


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[Assistant] I'm going the over 40, 54 and a half, I'll take 44 and a half if that's it. But 54 and a half, that's too low. That's too low! There's gonna be over 60 points scored in this game easily unless there's some crazy weather system that moves in that I'm not aware of. Oh please be 33 to 30. It's too low. 33 to 30.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] That's what just tells you that it's too long. It does. Cause it's gonna be 27-24. Feels like it. Alright, the one game. If you were dying in a gutter, not already dead, cause then it's too late. Aaron Rodgers is playing on a loop. Don't waste your time reading that crap. Give me your one. I guess it's a 49ers.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Wait, wait, let me just. This was a gift? Yes. What? You're the weirdest


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Alright, that's good. I'd like to see that other one too. Damn, I should've, I wish I would've known that. I would've asked you to wear that on PFT today. So we got the double sweater.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Dose of Florio, that would be amazing. Well, Elise, hey, listen, your Vikings don't have to play on Christmas day. It's the day after, so you don't have to have your Christmas ruined or anything like that. So that's good for you. I'm happy for, for, for, for you and your family from that standpoint.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] That's one okay versus red and best bets. I can still do this. I can and I just absolutely just that Tennessee Titans game killed me and I was that was gut-wrenching for me. And yes, I knew as soon as they lost it's all your texts come in pasta meatballs, all that crap.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Yes, that one hurt big time, but no, I'm not conceding anything. There's a lot of ball to be left played here. We're clutch. Let me clutch here down the stretch these last three weeks. Here we go.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] I mean, it is to me, again, it's, it's, it's, uh, it's as close to a 50-50 ball game as you can certainly get. It's a very even matchup across the board. There's no doubt about that. You know, I just look at it and go.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Hey, I mean, Tennessee, their defense, great run stopping defense. There's no doubt about that. It's one of the best in football. Vrabel, Shane Bowen, very smart.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] I know they'll have some sort of plan to try to slow down Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Yes.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Hey, offensively, I like the Titans still. I mean, they just got that disease that I've continued to talk about today as far as.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Doing dumb stuff, turning the ball over. I don't necessarily look at it like other teams are beating the crap out of them or outplaying them to cause those turnovers. I look at a lot of them just going, man, it's just dumb stuff. Tennessee doing dumb things. There's no other way to explain it.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] You know, I do look at it and go, wait, hey, the 49ers, we talk about their corner issues, you know, but do the Titans have the wide receivers in the passing game to take advantage of that right now? I don't know if they really do.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] You know, I do think they'll be able to run the ball to a degree on the 49ers. I do, but is it going to be enough to just, you know, continually to keep pace with?


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] The, the, the Shanahan offense that I think is kind of on fire right now and especially on fire with them being healthy. When they're healthy, that's the case. That's the big key. You said it earlier today. There's no team that rides their stars on the offensive side of the ball more than the 49ers. I'm going to go with the 49ers here.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] It was a tough one, but I'm gonna go, oddly enough, I see your score in the computer right now, the exact opposite of yours. I'm going 49ers, 24-23, kicking a late field goal to win the football game in Nashville.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Yeah, it's gonna be a great game. I think there's desperation on both sides in this one. I mean, you're right, the 49ers could probably lose and if they win the last two, we'll probably still get in. They got the tiebreakers against, you know, teams like Minnesota and Philadelphia who they beat straight up.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] So yeaah, but again, I think desperation's real on both sides here and I do think it's a fascinating matchup.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Uh, I'm gonna be interested. I really think, uh, the thing I look at is how successful can Deontay Forman be running the football against the 49ers defense. You know, if he goes off for 120, 130, something like that, 115, I'm gonna go, ooh.