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[Assistant] And he's gonna be able to match up with those guys, the power guys. Yeah, that'll be a question. But man, there's nothing on there for me to question it. It's just the actual size and the numbers on paper. There's nothing that visually says that's an issue.


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[Assistant] I've seen it before, I believe we showed it at the Combine maybe.


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[Assistant] You know, first off, you know, like what we're showing the measurables to there, you know. Is that measurables just the center or all offense alignment in general?


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[Assistant] I think it's all offense alignment in general. I'm going to be pretty sure, I think. Which again is just like, who cares? Why do you want to compare him against a left tackle? It's a totally different skill set and means nothing to it.


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[Assistant] Right, yeaah. This is all offensive moments, that's a good point. Right, so that's what we got to take into account here. Context matters. A lot. And then sometimes we look at things and listen, I know arm length is important.


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[Assistant] 31 and 1 eighths is small, okay, but then, you know, we got other guys in football where we go, well, it's 32 and a half and he's the best center in football. You know, is it really gonna make the biggest difference in the world or you just go, oh my gosh, you can't do this. You know, I just think


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[Assistant] The toughness, the power, the ability to hit people and roll his hips through and push them back and stun them is pretty impressive. And then, you know, the center


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[Assistant] Not only the strength of the point of attack, but like we talk about, it's third down now and now there's some athletic defense end who's lined up over me or something like that. You know, the quickness, the twitchiness, to me that's almost just as important as anything at that position.


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[Assistant] And then they get to ask to do so much today in the NFL, whether it's the screen game and some of the polling and all of that, to where it's an important position and he's pretty perfect as far as the film's concerned.


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[Assistant] No, I'm gonna say it was 285, 290 the year I played with them in 2000.


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[Assistant] Definitely, they definitely can. I mean, it takes a, it's a special, like Casey, a special guy that's got that kind of power, and that's kind of a body.


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[Assistant] Well, but Jason Kelsey's not far off from that either. I mean, I'm going to guess you, I bet you Kelsey's 295, 292. Probably not as much as whatever he's listed at. I bet you he's less than that to your point there. No, but it's a position about how


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[Assistant] Quick and explosive you can get on them. This is where these guys make up. Casey Wigman would win battles because he could snap the ball.


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[Assistant] And get on the guy in front of him before that guy could get off the ball and get the momentum to push him back, even though he was the bigger man. So he's already had his body on the guy. As that guy was trying to go, and he's like, I'm already on you. You stop your stopping there. So there is something to that, let alone again.


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[Assistant] You know, that's strong, okay, I'm, you know, this guy's, he's, he's to my right, and I gotta make a reach block. Set hud, the quick explosion, get over there, the quickness, just to get in front of the guy, and more times than not, it's the most important thing there anyway. And then he understands how to kind of stop him or slow him down in the track, so uhm,


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[Assistant] The guy's a first round spenner, center. He has a chance to be really special in my opinion. He's a fucking machine who never loses a battle.


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[Assistant] The real, they have real running plays. It's not just inside-outside zone. We only have two running plays. That's most of college football. That's Mississippi State. We only got these plays.


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[Assistant] He's doing down blocks, double teams, you know, you know, down, you know, kick out blocks, whatever. He's anything that's being asked to pull, you know, double team and then let's work to the second level and we'll communicate it as we're doing the double team to figure out who goes up there. You know, he's, that's where he's got an advantage over a lot of these guys coming in the draft.


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[Assistant] Yeah, nothing but tackles here and now. It's the big two. We know who they are. I mean, the big two are...


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[Assistant] Or Evan Neil and, you know, Icky Iquanu, alright? And I am making Icky Iquanu my number 2, alright? And let me just say, this is not easy. I was gonna say, how difficult was that, was parsing that one out? This could be a 1 or a 1A type of thing. This is a phenomenal football player, and I'm gonna state right now,


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[Assistant] Was better than Evan Neal's. Okay? It was better. Overall. So, you're gonna have to wait until I get to Evan Neal to ask you that question. Why, why he's won. You can see it in the word bubble above my head. Yeah, I know. You wanna ask, so wait, why is he... So, overall film is phenomenal. Okay? The guy could be...


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[Assistant] A guard, but he's made for left tackle. I mean, so there's a little versatility there for sure.


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[Assistant] I think between that, I mean it's, it's like elite.


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[Assistant] Explosiveness. Elite change of direction ability. You know, the redirects like we're talking about. Going to the second limbo, the linebacker tries to juke him out. Nah, not so fast. Not around this guy. He's gonna be there to knock you out. You know, blows people back on contact.


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[Assistant] So that's, I mean right away you see that and you just go, man, the guy's got it all. There's nothing in his game that he physically can't do, and most things he does at a very elite level.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's not as much like when they played Florida State, right? Florida State, they did a good job of not putting their best guy over him the whole game. Right? So there was that. And that would be some of the negatives we talk about here with him. Again, this is a phenomenal football player, very worthy of being a top five pick for sure. All right. Um, you know, but like, yes.


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[Assistant] The true NFL pure pass protection plays are not many in the NC State offense.


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[Assistant] There's not a lot of times he's asked there to be like, Hey, protect for four seconds. The quarterback is going to take a seven step drop and we're reading, you know, the post to the deep corner to the crosser coming across. We want you to hold up.


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[Assistant] Almost everything is, get it out quick, you know, RPO. So it's like, holy shit, this is the 60th play of the game, he's only really pass protected four times the whole game. I mean, holy crap, it drives you crazy.


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[Assistant] You know, even within all that, you know, there's nothing there negatively other than there's some past protection.


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[Assistant] You know, make the initial contact and hit with you and then kind of lean on you and stop his feet and then people might go around. So there's a little bit of that to where I would go. His weight gets over his toes a little sometimes on contact instead of kind of sitting in there and having that base underneath you, right? So it's that, but like again, it's not like you see it every game or all the time.


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[Assistant] It's just, okay, here it is. And it's fixable. With the kind of athlete and power this guy has, it's still an incredible, you know, anchor. Uhm, and the other thing I like, Paul, as the season goes along,


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[Assistant] I felt like some of that stuff got cleaned up. Where he got better and better at it. He stopped letting


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[Assistant] Yes, I'm just, I know NFL and how it works and how some of these, you know, so clean the tape like we talk about and all that. There's some that are just going to fall in love with it and rightly so. The guy is really good and I think it is debatable about who the number one pick is. I'm not certainly sitting here trying to say, what I say goes in stone and you listen to me for


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[Assistant] I, I, I, I remember, I mean, I studied Greg Robinson hard coming out. Man.


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[Assistant] I think this kid's film's cleaner than Greg Robinson. Greg Robinson was one of those where I thought he was a little more like Charles Cross, where you went, whoa, I see all this talent and it's really good, but man, there's some rawness and some crap we gotta fix here, but the potential is amazing, right? And yeah, of course it didn't work out.


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[Assistant] I don't look at this guy being that raw. No. This is to me is like, we're talking minor, minor adjustments here.


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[Assistant] The past protection issues were not that of like, you know, where I go, oh man, that's really scary to me. I never was like that. I just, one of the only things I wrote that were negative, and I just, as I get into it, I don't want to give up some of my other stuff on my other guy here, you know, I just wrote,


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[Assistant] You know, anchor and punch are not as good as the top guy that we're gonna talk about here in a minute. You know, uhm, and, and in that pass protection, he will lean and miss at times like I talked about. You know, and that's again because of the footwork a little bit and all that, but it's, it's minute.


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[Assistant] Let's just do it. Let's just get to number one. Listen, cause I want to tell you, when I write, when I watch these, that's why I have a hard time when I read through my notes, because I compare through my notes. So I don't want to give it off to you. But I compare as I go. I go wait.


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[Assistant] This guy did this better than this guy. This guy did it worse than this guy. And I write those things down to kind of continue to keep my...


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[Assistant] Brain and like remembering of where I think certain areas, this guy was great and I compare him that way. That's how I do my evaluation. Okay. Yeah. So yeah, let's get it. You want to get to Evan Neil, the number one tackle in the draft?


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[Assistant] Yeah, this is a different, this is a different guy. It's like the easiest 350 you've ever seen. That's good. It's easy, right? And it's not sloppy either. It's not like you turn on the film and go, oh man, his belly's really jiggling, and I see his tricep there, and he's got 12 pounds of fat on his tricep. You know, it's not that at all.


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[Assistant] So, the film itself is not as clean as Icky, right? Like I talked about.


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[Assistant] You know, there's a few things here and there. And the run game though. Only in the run game.


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[Assistant] Yes. Can he get faked out in space every now and then?


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[Assistant] Can he maybe take the wrong angle to the second level and not be the machine Icky was always at making that block? No doubt. As he is good in the wide receiver screen and getting out and blocking a corner or a linebacker on the edge to, you know, you know, get your receiver off as Icky. No, Icky's better at all those things, right?


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[Assistant] But this is the best pass protecting left tackle I have ever seen. And since I've been doing this.


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[Assistant] I've never seen anybody as good as this. We're getting 10, 11, 10 years. Wow. The best you've ever seen. No, this is, this is...


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[Assistant] Because they're gonna see other things in this film and they're gonna go, well, it's not as good as icky. It's not, it's not always as clean.


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[Assistant] This kid has a little of the issues Icky does the way I talk about in the pass game of leaning. This guy at times will be leaner in the run game. You can live with that more in the passing game, right? I can. I'm going with the pass game. That's just the way I feel.


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[Assistant] Yeaah. I'm gonna go with the guy that's the best pass, the guy that I saw play NFL defense ends every week, and nobody ever get close. Including the guy that a lot of people think is gonna be the number one or two pick. Not even close to the quarterback.


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[Assistant] Trayvon Walker from Georgia. I mean they played him twice. It's just, it's a clinic. Now they don't play Trayvon Walker the right way all the time like you've heard me discuss. They don't let him like really rush the passer. But either way, the guy has very good lateral quickness. Like his feet aren't as good as Icky's.


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[Assistant] But they're a little less, alright? But his anchor is as good as I've seen. Nobody pushes him back. And then his punch with his arms...


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[Assistant] Is off the charts good. You want to talk about like when his hands get on you it is over, it is over. And he is great at meeting the pass rusher. You know, getting out of his step.


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[Assistant] I'm getting an initial punch and the guy's like, oh, it just ruins all their momentum. And you're like, well, it's over now. You're done. He's got you. It's done.


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[Assistant] That's where it's a little different, let alone the Cam Jordans of the world and them can't power rush them either. So again, the film not the same, but the pass protections off the charts good.


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[Assistant] And then, the running game concerns I have, they're not that big. You see him do all the things I said that I wish he was a little... You see him do them at a high level plenty of times. It's just not every time.


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[Assistant] You know? So, it's not again like, I don't know if he can do this. It's just like, oh, he's gotta get a little better at this. He's gotta clean this up. But you talk about then, if you wanna give me the guy...


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[Assistant] I think if you give me the guy where I go, it's third and one, we gotta have it to win the Super Bowl right here. And we gotta run behind somebody. I'm going behind Evan Neal. I am over Icky. As much as I think Icky gets off the ball too. Evan Neal has moments of


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[Assistant] And all of a sudden you're like, man, this is 300 pound lineman here. He just pushed seven yards down the field. I think he's special and an amazing pass protector.


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[Assistant] We'll have zero issues in past protection with this guy. Everything we gotta worry about with this guy is we gotta learn just a few little steps and techniques and things just to get to the second level or adjust to somebody making a move on me in space.


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[Assistant] And I would go, but man, you know, it's a passing league. There's a lot of great pass rushers, ruining games for the other team right now. And you don't ever have to worry about this with this guy at tackle. There you go. That's where I mean that, that to me. Walk out the door with that. I went back and forth here.


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[Assistant] But I just, as I went back and forth more and more as time went on, I just go, I, I, even though the other guys may be better,


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[Assistant] In more areas than the other guy, the area that's most important to me is that pass protecting area. Evan Neal to me is elite in that department.


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[Assistant] The, the, the foot quickness, let alone with the anchor and the ability to punch and the arms and all that, uh, was, like I said, I thought it was off the charts good for, for a college left tackle.


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[Assistant] As long as he's decent. Or maybe even better. It is. It's better than defense. You know, again, that's where I, when we're picking these two guys apart here, we're talking, I'm talking like, it's better than everybody else. We're just comparing them against each other, which they're in a league of their own.


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[Assistant] I know, but yeaah, the negatives, like I talked about, can lean on people in the run game, can fall off.


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[Assistant] You know, I would say he was on the ground maybe a time or two more than I would like. He's too talented to be on the ground, but I think again, that goes into the leaning thing, right? But the toughness is real. Anything straight ahead is off the charts good. It's phenomenal that way. And like I said, it's just the change of direction, redirection stuff in the run game, not in the pass game.


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[Assistant] You know, the pass game, he's a machine. And so that is also what leads you to believe like, hey, this guy can get to the second level and do those things we're talking about. I see him mirror pass rushers better than anybody else in the NFL draft. Yeah. So he can do that. Um, but the power is real running pass and.


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[Assistant] And I said, even at the end, I said, and all I've said even about the change of direction and redirect, it's still really good. And I've yet to see a bad pass pro. He is an incredible anchor, an incredible punch, and he attacks pass rushers. You know, uhm, let me just see.


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[Assistant] You know, fix one or two things in the run game, I think you got it all. Gets his hands on you, it's over. This is to me the best tackle in the draft.


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[Assistant] Have you seen this? Yea, I have. I had some fun with him already. You've already done that? I did. I had fun with him specifically. So first off, does this look like a guy that's 350 to you? Look at that body. Box jump split squat. A box jump split squat. And he's 350. That's 6'7 everyone.


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[Assistant] Now, that's what I mean. It's the easiest 350 you've ever seen. When I saw him in person, I just went, I can't believe this is a guy that's 350 pounds.


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[Assistant] That's where their game is. Exactly right. Exactly. Some of these things have just been made too much or too important. Right. Uh, in the scouting world. There's just too nitpicky over stuff where you go, I don't know what, who cares about the last 35 yards of that guy's race. I don't care.


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[Assistant] Well, not all women have lived up to, I guess, expectations. Some of them have. Should that be any part of his evaluation? Yeah, I get it. Well, you know, listen.


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[Assistant] You know, to where, yea, do I think a guy like Alex Leatherwood probably last year got a little overdrafted? I do, yea. We'll see where it goes. And I think, eventually he's gonna be a guard all the time, I think. Uhm, but, like, you can't let that stuff affect you.


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[Assistant] Right? Because if we went on the, uh, well, look at what happened here. Alabama sent out Dee Milner.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I don't think this guy's being overrated. You know what I think. Yeah, it sounds like your evaluation of him.


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[Assistant] That's, I think, the best way to defend myself. You're right. I think I'm gonna use that for now on. I'm here for you. Yeah, thank you very much. Uhm, but yeah, he's, uh, this, this is a hell of a football player, and so is Icky. You know, again, my big thing is, is yeah, I'm putting him a tackle, and Evan Neal,


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[Assistant] Fourth quarter, first quarter, doesn't matter what the team, what the scheme is, I don't worry about him pass protecting against anybody in the sport. I don't.


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[Assistant] Icky, on the other hand, like I told you, uhm,


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[Assistant] I have a little worry about the big power pass rushers that go with him. And that to me was the difference. I don't worry about the speed guys. Icky's gonna be fine with the speed guys. It's the real 280


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[Assistant] You know, Defense N, the Cameron Jordans of the world, like I'm talking about. That's the guy, or, you know, again, Nick Bosa. Yeaah, it's 260, but he has the power, and he goes speed to power on you.


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[Assistant] No question. I think all six belong in the first round. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw all six of these guys off the board by 25, really. I really wouldn't. And yeaah, that's six guys. And really, you know, again, I think if we're gonna be fair,


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[Assistant] There's two more guys to me that you could probably, that are in the first round conversation. And I expect at least one of them, maybe both of them, to go in the first round. I do, and that's where I come off going, I think there'll be eight linemen drafted in the first.


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[Assistant] You think Icky's up there first? Icky's the, the household leader name right now. Okay. You know, that to me. And again, I understand it, like we talked about. You're right. Yeah.


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[Assistant] It's barely. It's barely, but it's like we talked about. I feel like, you know, more GMs than not are going to like his tape because like we said, it's cleaner in all areas.


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[Assistant] Yeah, have you made me read between the tea leaves or connect dots or whatever else?


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[Assistant] And like I said, I think number three, the Texans, I just feel like it's going to be icky.


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[Assistant] I do. I just, I look at that and go, wait, they got Tunzel at left tackle, they got Marcus Cannon at right tackle, who's going into year 11 or 12.


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[Assistant] You know, they got two guards in Titus Howard and Sharping.


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[Assistant] Who are solid with nothing special to where I just go, you bring icky.


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[Assistant] We'll keep, for now, we're gonna keep Marcus Canada tackle, Tunzel the other tackle, and you'll play one of the guards, and we'll figure out the other two spots. Yeah. Uh, that, that, I don't know. To me, that's where I just feel like this is going. Uh, but I don't know that.


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[Assistant] They are. They are worthy. Yeah. They, I don't, I wouldn't be mad if either one of them went first. I wouldn't sit there and go, oh my gosh, I cannot believe they went one. That's so stupid. I definitely would not. Either one of them. No, absolutely not. Yep.


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[Assistant] So, oh, and the Texans cut Marcus Cannon. So there you go. So theirs makes me believe it even more. I forgot they cut him.


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[Assistant] So I was already thinking that before him. That's where I need to look up those little details. I just go off the top of my head.


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[Assistant] Thanks, and for free. That's just what I do. That's what I do. Put it on my tab, okay? Put it on my tab. A jersey read, he says. A jersey read, yep. That's right.


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[Assistant] No, he's from East Jersey, it's called Queens. It's East Jersey, right. It's a little level below Jersey, Long Island, so it's East Jersey.


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[Assistant] Back to the great state of Iowa. Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa, certainly. Big body, right? Now, big body, got all the long arms, pretty good athlete, right?


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[Assistant] As everything you want, you know, as far as being a left tackle or tackle in the NFL, he's not dominant, okay? That's the one thing I would say. Especially for his level of competition, there's just a little too much to me where I wanna go. Kinda just gets it done.


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[Assistant] You know, again, you don't get to see against a lot of high level defense ends. He's kind of in a class of his own that way, that way. And, you know, to me, that's why I would probably put the other guy Bernard Raymond.


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[Assistant] In front of him, because there was a little bit more of a better competition aspect, and I thought a little bit more of a physical dominant play as compared to Penning, but to me, both guys are first round tackles. I do. I would think somewhere between 20 and 32, you see


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[Assistant] You know, see these guys go, but you have very good football players. And one more here. And then I want to give the guy that's not going to be a first round pick.


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[Assistant] But just one of my favorite watches and a guy that I think has a lot of potential is the Tyler Smith from Tulsa. Would you like so much? Well, he's probably the most


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[Assistant] There must be a big butt here. Well, the butt is just, it's, it's, it's raw. Yeah. I mean...


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[Assistant] Nobody's taught him how to do anything in Pass Pro. He's just doing it with his God given ability. It's like they just said like, here's a basketball, go play one on one against it. He's just, he's out there like, oh, let me just move my feet this way and that way and I'll just block it. I don't know how I did it, but I did. And then he pulls the next play.


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[Assistant] And he's that left tackle, you know, he pulls one play and he leads with the right foot. You go, oh, that's good.


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[Assistant] And then I watch the next play and he does like a karaoke out of it and then pulls. And you're like, what? So there's some rawness there. He has not been coached at all. But when you talk about power, strength,


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[Assistant] I do it. I do it. I am like the nerd at the gym that does fast feet. And then I do butt kicks. And then I do straight leg bounds. And then I do side shuffles. And then I do backwards run. In your basement, in your driveway, in your garage. No matter where.


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[Assistant] Definitely. 100%. 100%. Yeah. I did it Saturday at my workout before the gym. Did it at all. That's right. I gotta do it now too. Now I'm at the age where I'm like, if I don't warm up, I like have a back-eotomy. And I'm like, oh my god, I don't feel right. You're right back and you're left back. Exactly.


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[Assistant] Well, it's gonna be interesting. I mean... You wouldn't be surprised if they were gone. I wouldn't, but I'm just thinking off the top of my head. No, I would think you're gonna have one of them at five. I don't think the Jets are gonna be in the business of tackle at four. I don't think so.


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[Assistant] You know, they took Elijah Vera Tucker last year, they got Mackay Beckton from the year before that. Uh, how many, you know, how many resources are we gonna spend on the offensive line? They have other things. So, you know, the Texans at three. If they go one, the other one should be left over. I want the Giants to take it. Okay. Alright. Yes. And I am rooting for the Giants to get Evan Neal. Uhm, so.


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[Assistant] Well then that's gonna be... I wouldn't, especially if Evan Neal or Icky are there. You wouldn't trade it? I would not. No. To me, again, this is where we classify under these two guys stand above the rest. There's a separation. So, you better get some great package to go down and get one of these other tackles that is gonna be riskier.


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[Assistant] And I wanna go giants, we just took a tackle at four and it's, you know, it hasn't been great so far.


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[Assistant] It's finally going in the right direction, but no, I don't think we should bookend it either. I should have tackled five, we'll have Andrew Thomas in one tackle, we'll have whoever we get to pick number five at the other tackle, and then we'll fill in the rest from there.


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[Assistant] You know, and then I, yes, I want us to get a pass rusher, the Giants. I do. Us. Us. I'm a G-Man fan. Yes, I want us, I see, I want one of these damn pass rushers. You know, whether it's the Florida State kid, uhm, you know, maybe this is a place maybe they trade down. Seven?


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[Assistant] You would do it there. I could see that. Maybe Wink Martindale might go, you know what? I don't want the kid from Florida State. I don't need that like speed pass rusher off the edge. I'm Baltimore defense, right? I'm more of this Darius Thomas, you know, Matt Judant type.


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[Assistant] I like Carlathus from, from Purdue. Moves down a few spots. I'll take him. That's then fine. But yes, I would love to see past protector and past rusher on the Giants draft.


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[Assistant] And you look good and you're, you're like, Oh, I don't even look tired. Then they must have to put you to work more.


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[Assistant] Good, good, good. I'm glad you're happy. Wasn't kidding around. Yeah. Good, good to hear that. Watch the USFL next week. We're on Friday night. I watched a little. I watched a little this week. Yeah. Yeah. I'll, I'll, I'll continue to die. It's hard, it was hard on a holiday weekend. I know. Especially yesterday. Yeah, Easter weekend is... I don't know, I'm outside, hiding eggs for the kids. I'm having baseball catches. Right. There's kids yelling and screaming everywhere.


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[Assistant] Was NBA playoffs on? I mean, there was just a lot of shit going on. I hear ya. Yeah, but I saw enough. I gotta feel. I gotta feel. Yeah.


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[Assistant] That's fun. Alright, hang in there slugger. Thank you. Alright, you only got a few more weeks left of me. Actually, no, you got a lot more than that.


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[Assistant] 88, 88, the Giants lost the last game of the year to miss the playoffs. If they won, they got home field advantage. If they lost, they didn't make the playoffs. How crazy is that? That's a good Giant recall. So they lost. So the Jets, actually.


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[Assistant] But 89, so they, man, that would have been so awesome if Dion Sanders was on the Giants when I was there as a little kid. Bottom line though, Dion also did not like the Giants test. Well, of course not. Who the fuck would? Anybody with brains doesn't like it. Anybody with a life would not like the Giants test. I mean, Lawrence Taylor definitely didn't take that test. I know that.


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[Assistant] Right, right. I know, I need to go back in time. But yea, Dion was going to do that. I love Dion's pre-draft stories. They're amazing. Can you imagine Dion Sanders on the same defense as Lawrence Taylor? That would be unreal. That locker room would be unreal. I would wish that would have happened.


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[Assistant] But Dion, between that story right there, which I've heard before, and then, you know, of course the 40 time.


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[Assistant] Where he just shows up, lines up, runs to 40, puts his mink coat on and leaves again. I mean that's just- I haven't heard the mink-


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[Assistant] Uh, we got Thursday, alright? Thursday.


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[Assistant] Right? Little cushion here. Just to finish off the D tackles and the linebackers. I'm pretty much done with the D tackles. Alright?


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[Assistant] Uh, just started on linebackers. So feeling good. But Thursday we'll be doing that. Ahmed will be here. This will be our final positional draft rankings of the 2022 draft season. Check it out. Subscribe, rate, review. You know where to find us. We're here.


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[Assistant] At NBC Sports, okay? Uh, Paulie, you the man. Good to see you. Good to see you.


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[Assistant] I will. Okay, I'll do it. I'll get warmed up. I'll get ready to go. I'll show you guys what it's all about next time. Peace out. Everybody be good. Talk to you.


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[Assistant] Oh, I won't wish that on anybody. Even if you guess my top ten perfectly, we will not be sending you one of the African geese in my house, okay? That will not happen.


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[Assistant] Like, this is a big bird. Like I, like you would think like even a fox might go, I don't know about that. I'm not sure. Coyote, okay, yes. But a fox I think would be like, he's bigger than me. I'm not sure I can handle this. Uh, so that's what they're kind of handy for, or at least for now.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's funny. That's funny. I know. Yeah, it is. It can be affected by that. Maybe your African geese would like him for a


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[Assistant] I mean, maybe. I don't think they seem to just want to eat grass. That's all I know so far. We've tried to give them other things. They could care less about it. So that's where we are. And yes, we won't be giving you any geese if you do guess the Chris Sims Top 10 correctly.


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[Assistant] We've got great entries and we'll hit all of that soon because we're getting close to the top ten, baby. I mean, we got a good one today. We got 16 to 13 today, right? Am I right about that? Yes, it's those four. 16 to 13. My addition and subtraction is at a elementary level still here. The groupings of four.


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[Assistant] Yeah, but we're gonna get into something today. I mean, it's an interesting group right here. This is some really good quarterbacks. Yes. A little established and, you know, not a lot of question marks about this group here and we'll break it down because it's pretty nuanced as far as picking apart these four guys right here.


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[Assistant] Yes, I think we're getting to that area, for sure. You know, you could sit here and I think the guys we even talk about today, even though they might not be the sexiest, I'm still gonna go, no, this is still a franchise quarterback. Right.


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[Assistant] And you're not going to just get, let this guy, you know, out the door for, for nothing. Right. You know, you don't want to do that. And I would even argue again, even with just what we saw, if you're watching on YouTube, that little graphic there that just showed Baker Mayfield and Mack Jones, I would really say right there is almost where I would start to go.


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[Assistant] At least from Mac Jones to Baker Mayfield and above, I feel like we have a list of guys where I go, I know what I'm getting from that crew. At least I know what they are. They can improve on some things, but I'm pretty sure what they are. Yeaah, I'd like to see Mac Jones' arm get a little stronger, but I know what he is. Baker Mayfield, I know he's got incredible big time arm talent and some really special things.


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[Assistant] He's just gotta be a little bit more, you know, consistently accurate and just take a little of that gunslinger mentality out of his game. But like, I know what he is, to where I would say the guys below that are still like,


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[Assistant] No, no, I don't. I think Baker could, could easily, like, you know, again, last year's a tough year to evaluate and some of that. And again, I think with Baker too, there's effect on the team and leadership, but also there seems to be a little bit of a negative effect there too. I think we're going to be real about it, but like Baker Mayfield, I think,


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[Assistant] We could sit here and go, no, if there's just a little, little nuances he can clean up in his game, he can be above. His talent is greater than some of these guys we're going to talk about today.


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[Assistant] It is. I mean, again, Baker Mayfield last year was a few spots above where he was this past year as far as being ahead of 17. And again, not that I care about where last year or anything like that, but Baker Mayfield has the type of talent and he has an arm for me to be


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[Assistant] But he has the, I think the top 10-ish or if he was 9, 10, 11, I could see him hunkering down there for a number of years with the type of talent he has as long as he continues to grow a little with the things we discussed a minute ago, just decision making.


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[Assistant] Refine the mechanics a little bit. That's the one thing when you go back in Baker Mayfield, it's just too many balls of, I'm gonna throw it as hard as I can and feet and arms and everything are all over the place and you're just like, that ain't gonna work every throw, throw by throw here in the NFL. It's little stuff like that that he's gotta clean up, but there's a lot of good to his game too.


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[Assistant] No, I'm, I'm black, blue, and gray. Like, I know. People make fun of me all the time, and I'm like, this is what I do, and it's simple and easy, and I'm not that smart. And get used to it.


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[Assistant] Minnesota Vikings. 16 last year as well? 16? Was he 16 last year as well? I haven't looked at my list from last year a whole lot either way. Look at that. I love some of these pictures because I look at the throwing positions at times.


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[Assistant] Uh, things jump out just there. But here, I think the first thing I'm gonna start out by with Kirk Cousins is the ultimate system quarterback. I mean, we're talking about the ultimate system quarterback. A guy that, if the system is really good,


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[Assistant] and creative and you give him and can teach him answers and


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[Assistant] So that's where he's very special, in that aspect. And then adding on to that, you know, his ability, I think that also makes him special, or really damn good, is


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[Assistant] The, there is no hesitation in his game when he sees it and knows what he's looking at.


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[Assistant] It is, right? I mean, you could tell in his game, just as far as his ability to read and react and pull the trigger and throw, it's up there with the top guys in football. When he knows what he's saying, oh wait,


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[Assistant] I play action pass, oh wait, it's the coverage I thought it was still, and he can diagnose where guys are and let it rip as good as anybody in football. So that's where he is special, and he's smart that way.


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[Assistant] He's pretty accurate thrower. He's a very good down the ball, down the field thrower. And yes, like you said, he's very accurate. I mean, if you're open 10 yards over the middle, 5 yard slants, whatever, he's gonna put it on the money for the most part.


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[Assistant] It's the sexiness that lacks with, with her cousins and that's where maybe the negatives are.


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[Assistant] Cause you're, you're just, you're, you're, you're piling on my point.


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[Assistant] That's what he is though. You know, he's really good, but there's a support system and some things that need to be in place for him to go to that next level of the team. He's not going to be the guy that's going to go, Hey, we're an eight and eight football team. Don't worry. I'm the man. We'll go 10 and six. Cause I'll pull a few rabbits out of my ass and a few magic tricks that will make it work this week.


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[Assistant] That's where he's a little different than guys we're gonna get to next week and stuff like that.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's, that's kinda what it is, you know? And I think that's where, you know, you see, like, the l-


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[Assistant] You know, we'll take some shots down the field, and then I just need you to make a few plays every now and then. And I don't think Zimmer really ever loved Kirk Cousins. I don't know that, but in my heart of hearts and things I've heard, I think that's probably true.


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[Assistant] I do, I do. I think it's just, it actually plays perfectly what we were kind of going on to say there. Uh, yes, because I think that the O'Connell, and again, we'll see, I mean this is the first time really


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[Assistant] Play calling, offensive, game plan, everything's gonna be on his plate. But this is a very smart guy, I know that. And he's been taught by some people who really got some good systems. To where I would think this would line up to what we're talking about where


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[Assistant] O'Connell's going to be able to bring some creative ideas and some things to the table that


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[Assistant] Kirk Cousins didn't have it at his disposal the last few years, and he's gonna go, oh damn, okay, you just teach me what you want me to do. What do you want me to do here? Teach me what you want to do? What's the check you want me to get to? Okay, we'll carve him up. And I would think that's gonna happen, along with some of the talent they have at receiver and their ability to run the ball.


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[Assistant] And then you got a guy here in Kukano that's coming from McVeigh who's, we know a great play action pass game designer as well. I think that suits Kirk Cousins, you know. So all of that I think is gonna be a positive. No doubt about it. But the big thing is, is like you said,


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[Assistant] Kirk Cousins is not going to make plays to get the team over the hump if they're struggling all the time or if we got a few injuries.


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[Assistant] You know, he's, he's more than a game manager. Uhm, but, but that's, I think, the biggest thing. And then when he wants to step on the, like, that's another thing I'll say. He has a good arm, right?


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[Assistant] It's kind of the same throw every throw. It's kind of like, he has one pitch is what I would say. It's kind of like, he's kind of got like 94 down the middle. And that's about it. It's never going to be 100.


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[Assistant] You know, it's never gonna be sidearm. You know, there's none of that. He's not very good at that department. You don't ever see sidearm. And even though he's tough as hell in the pocket and will make throws with people bearing down on him,


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[Assistant] He's not gonna, he's not very good at throwing when, oh shit, I can't step into it. Or I gotta lean on my back.


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[Assistant] And just flick a ball 20 yards to the sideline. That's not gonna happen with him. That's not. He needs a little space. He's got a little bit of a long delivery like we saw in the picture in the lead up to the countdown here. And because of that, he can't make some of those like special throws we talked about.


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[Assistant] A few pages to the playbook where you go, ah, this is only a number of guys in the league that I can call this play for here.


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[Assistant] You know, I mean, how many times have we seen Matthew Stafford roll right this year and throw a post back across the other side of the field? A lot of examples. So that's where, and not to say Kirk Cousins can't do that stuff, but like, Matt Stafford can launch it and be falling down or sidearm or having something, having not even his whole body into the throw and still do that. That's where he's a little different. Uhm, but, you know, he's, uhm,


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[Assistant] It's funny, one of the things I wrote down here as I'm going through my notes a little bit is like, he's aggressive, but he's not aggressive at times. You know, he's aggressive when he needs to be. But the one thing there was a few times in during the year where I looked at games, I would even go to the Dallas Cowboy game where they lost during the regular season with like the backup quarterback for the Cowboys playing where it's like,


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[Assistant] He was like, wait, there's no Dak Prescott, so I'm not gonna push the envelope on anything. We'll just, we'll win ugly. And...


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[Assistant] And I just think we'll win today if I kind of just be conservative a little bit. You know, the, the, the, the quarterbacks that we go down the list here a little bit, and we're going to talk about one in a few minutes where I go, they wouldn't just sit back and let that go down. They'd go, wait, wait, wait, where are the, ooh, our foot's kind of on their throat?


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[Assistant] Oh, we're going to 15. I'm ready for 15. This is, I mean, controversial quarterback in the off season here. Yeah, big time for a number of reasons. The mentor.


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[Assistant] Of mentors. Don't call me a mentor. Ryan Tannehill, which it's not his job to be a mentor and he's going to be a good teammate and like put up a good example and therefore will be


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[Assistant] Wait for it, a good mentor. Still bothers me, that whole subject.


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[Assistant] It really does. I'm gonna go off on a tangent about it actually, why we're sitting here real quick. Just because, I mean, more people made a big deal about that, but nobody made a big deal that Teddy Bridgewater was basically trying to stab Tua in the back as he got signed by the Miami Dolphins. That just got no big deal. He wasn't mentoring Tua. We're just gonna let him.


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[Assistant] Kind of be a backstabber and we won't talk about it. Okay, cool, but Ryan Tannehill, we're gonna make it like he's a bad human being.


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[Assistant] So yep, I'm, I'm defending to and on there. Look at that. What the hell is going on here?


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[Assistant] He dipped. He dipped a little bit. He dipped a little bit of a down year. Biggest reason. Well, let me just start off with this. Okay. The guy is better than we give him credit for. That's gonna be my headline statement. I always said that for two years. Yes. This year? Yeah, okay. Well, it was a little bit of a down year, I certainly, and I can certainly say that. And there are good reasons for it.


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[Assistant] Ryan Tenno, who did he have on his team for most of the year to throw to?


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[Assistant] AJ, look, I mean, here, here's to your point. You know, I mean, again, yes, it's not as efficient, or as big plays, or of course, the pass protection wasn't as good.


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[Assistant] And oh yea, Derrick Henry was playing. And AJ Brown was healthy for most of the year.


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[Assistant] This past year, he had AJ Brown, who was hurt a number of weeks, Julio Jones, who was almost non-existent for the year, and then a bunch of no names at receiver. And then you lose Derrick Henry? Okay, so that's gonna lead you to, ehh, maybe I'm gonna force the ball a little bit and try to make a play happen when I shouldn't.


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[Assistant] And that would probably be the downfall of his year as he lets some of that I think affect his game to a degree. I will say physically, again, I'm nitpicky here.


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[Assistant] He can bring something to the system too. This is to me where he separated from Kirk Cousins.


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[Assistant] Like where we talked about Kirk Cousins can throw the ball.


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[Assistant] Uh, you know, people bearing down on him, but he still needs space. He's not going to be able to do it off the back foot or sidearm or anything. Tannahill can do some of that. First off, Tannahill can throw off his back foot and still throw a 20 yard incut down the middle. And you're being like, man, he had no room and he couldn't step into that. It looked like he.


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[Assistant] Was like a T-Rex and still got it there, like with no arm or anything. Throws on the move well too. Throws on the move well too, exactly right. So there's something else, like he has an advantage over Kirk Cousins, let alone can get on the move and if nobody's there to throw to, can turn it upfield and run for 30, 20 yards.


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[Assistant] I mean, he won some games this year, and helped them win some games with some big runs that way.


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[Assistant] So that's where I say, and within the normal rhythm of the system, this is another thing I'm just, again, I'm comparing them to the guy that was behind them just because this, hey, this is tight here, these guys, these guys are good quarterbacks, is, is Tannahill makes more big plays within the rhythm of the system more.


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[Assistant] Here's a play, right, and we want you to look to the out route to the left, and then the second read's gonna be an in-cut coming over the middle, and then really the third guy might be another shorter in-cut coming over the middle, and then the fourth guy on the outside's running a deep post.


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[Assistant] More times than not guys never get to that deep post. Tana Hill's a guy that can get there or just goes, oh wait, as I'm dropping back, oh wait, oh man, coach told me a few weeks ago, if we run this play and we get this coverage, that post might be there.


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[Assistant] He will do that, where I would say like, Kirk Cousins is like, he'll hit some deep shots down the field, but he knows he's throwing it deep. It's like play action, and it's Jefferson and Thielen going deep, so he's ready to throw deep. Tannahill obviously can do that, but Tannahill also makes more big throws, I think, within the normal rhythm of the offense than Kirk Cousins does.


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[Assistant] Well, it didn't, but I think it was more of a microcosm of maybe the whole year a little bit. Where, you know, I think the injuries, the Derrick Henry stuff you brought up, I do think


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[Assistant] Got him to force things a little bit here and there. He didn't manage games quite the same way he had in years past.


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[Assistant] I thought he tried to force some plays and some moments to kind of get the team maybe jump started.


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[Assistant] And didn't need to do that with his team. Like your defense is good and you guys still can run the ball pretty good without Derrick Henry. You don't need to throw some tight balls against the Houston Texans in the rain at home that get intercepted three times and you lose. I think that, okay, and the other thing that I think the Bengals game was a real thing with


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[Assistant] He, when I went back and watched The Rose, he has a little issue of he will stare down receivers. There's no doubt about that after watching it back.


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[Assistant] They haven't moved the ball in the second half. They didn't do any. They haven't been able to do anything and you're sacking the other team's quarterback every other time he drops back.


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[Assistant] It was that to me that was just a little off this year, let alone we know there were some other players that played really good that led to him going down a few spots and where he's been in the last few years.


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[Assistant] I am too. I am too. And you know, hopefully, you know, they got enough talent to support him here. AJ Brown's gone. You know, Derrick Henry should be healthy.


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[Assistant] No doubt. And especially the way they want to play ball, which is run, you know, play action pass, make aggressive throws down the field. You know, that's the one thing too, we got to take into account where we don't give him credit for a little bit. He's not in a quarterback friendly offense. They're not, they don't go in the game going, let's get Ryan in rhythm early.


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[Assistant] Get in rhythm, right? In fact, no. Forget your rhythm. Be in rhythm to start the game because we're coming out and doing it. So that, it doesn't lend itself always to great quarterback numbers and stuff like that. You gotta take that into account a little bit as well. But you're right. I think that, that game kind of put the microscope on him a little bit. And for whatever reason,


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[Assistant] As we saw with the mentoring thing, he's a guy that people want to jump on very quickly. And like to your point with Miami, that just should have never been. He played really well in Miami. More times than not. He really did. And what did people expect with that team down in Miami, that they were supposed to be so good.


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[Assistant] Uhm, yeaah, I think that those are the things. He can still be dynamic though. Now again, he can still be a pretty dynamic player.


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[Assistant] He's not gonna have a lot of like sidearm throws or anything like that, but like I said, doesn't need room to throw.


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[Assistant] He's aggressive, and you said it, he makes a lot of throws and plays on the run, and then of course can just flat out run too, with the quarterback design run stuff too.


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[Assistant] So where that adds a little element there. So there's, there's a, there's some special physical things he brings to the table. And yes, I don't expect Malik Willis to be able to mess with this guy. One thing I'll say is just the clips I've seen on TV so far too, you know, Malik Willis is smaller than people realize.


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[Assistant] When he stands next there in Ryan Tannehill, he don't look like all that special just from look-wise. You go, well one guy looks like a stud, the other guy kinda looks, you know, short and thick.


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[Assistant] And so we'll see where that goes, but it ain't gonna be like, I think people think like, cause Malik Willis was this big talker in the town, and I understand he's got a big arm.


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[Assistant] I just, you know, Ryan Tannell is really good, like you're saying here, and, and, you know, we need to respect it, I think, all of us a little bit more.


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[Assistant] I don't think so. He's gotta fall apart. I would imagine he would have to fall apart. And again, I would expect Malik Willis to be...


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[Assistant] Really raw and not necessarily the guy they want to trust to play right now. This is, this team's ready. This team could go to the Super Bowl. I mean, their, their, their defense is going to be, I think, check out those early games.


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[Assistant] Pretty good schedule. It's not a bad schedule, no doubt. And you know, you look at their division and, and you know, they're among the cults are clearly the two better teams compared to the other two, to where you think damn, Jaguars and Texans could very easily be four wins right there.


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[Assistant] I expect Ryan Tan will have a better year than he did last year. And I think the Titans are, you know, Mike Vrabel and company, they're to me, you know, they're on the right track. They really are. And they'll be a pain in the ass with Ryan Tan in the quarterback this year.


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[Assistant] I love the Indianapolis Colts. Number two, cause of Chris Sims, he was like, Dan, that's my idol, let me wear number two. I didn't even think of that. Yep, that's not true, that's a lie. Uh, but man, I got a lot of respect for Matt Ryan. You know, I think here's the first thing that I'll say, cause I'm trying to make like a banner statement to start off with each guy, right? Yep.


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[Assistant] Sit there and go, let me just watch film and watch him. You know, you can get lost sometimes. You're watching a game on Sunday and you're just going, oh, he got sacked or, oh, that was a 10 yard completion. Great. Blah, blah, blah. And you don't realize that. Oh shit.


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[Assistant] He made a guy, like, miss in the pocket, and then hopped, and then his feet were awkward, and he threw the ball, and like, shit, he really, nobody was open, and he had horrible pass protection, and 12 yard gain, Atlanta Falcons. And not many people saw. No.


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[Assistant] Exactly right. And the numbers aren't going to tell you the whole story. That's where people got to like back off this like a little bit. Like I heard people on TV going, well, when we threw 20 touchdowns last year, Atlanta sucked last year. Atlanta was seven and 10 for one reason. Matt Ryan. They would have been.


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[Assistant] Exactly right. Any game that they were not totally overwhelmed by the other football team.


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[Assistant] You know, I know they got some ugly games on their schedule last year and some losses. They had no chance at some of those games. They were totally overrun, overwhelmed to where I go, you could bring Superman, you know, on steroids and it's not gonna matter. And they're not gonna be able to do anything against this team the way they are. But that's where, you know,


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[Assistant] So, you know, hey, the physical talent is not wowing, but it's better than people want to give it credit for.


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[Assistant] His decision making and smarts and all that is off the charts good.


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[Assistant] His movement in the pocket is at the top of the league as far as feeling the pocket, moving in the right spots, making people miss within the pocket.


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[Assistant] You know, making the little awkward throws we talked about that maybe Tana Hill or Kirk Cousins, he does have a lot of, it might not be cool, like, you know.


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[Assistant] Mahomes or Allen, but he's got a lot of throws where people are bearing down on him and he's like this and now he's gotta throw the ball like this and it's ugly or whatever, but it's still sidearm and getting to the spot it needs to get to.


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[Assistant] The accuracy is off the charts. I mean, again, if the pocket's clean and there's somebody slightly open.


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[Assistant] Guaranteed completion with Matt Ryan. Guaranteed completion. So that's where he's really good and, and think about


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[Assistant] Bring it right. Exactly right. To me, this is another reason where, you know, he's 14, but damn it's a good 14. The one thing I'll say with Matt Ryan, I feel like the last few years, and he had that great year, and you see what he can do when he's got talent and a system with him, like with Shanahan that year in Atlanta. MVP of football.


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[Assistant] Right? I really still think some of his best years were the years after that. Cause they weren't that good, the system wasn't that good, but he was still, he was making more plays with his ability than the system helping him. And I still feel that way with him, that way. And to your point, he's become a real leader. Like,


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[Assistant] For sure. Where there was a point where I was like, is he a little bit of a diva know it all guy at one point? And then like the last three years, all I've heard is just like,


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[Assistant] I do. Yeah, I do. I think, you know, like maybe the physical ability is not quite at Carson Wentz's level.


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[Assistant] But of course it's not going to be nearly the stupidity that Carson Wentz would deliver for you at times with the fumbles and dumb interceptions. And the one thing I said about Carson Wentz the other day too is too many games where I went, man, the ball hit the ground, the ball hit the ground and I'm going to go.


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[Assistant] He forced it to the first guy. The second and third guy are wide open. We didn't need to throw an incompletion there. It should have been first and 10.


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[Assistant] Right? Where that shit's not gonna happen with Matt Ryan. He's not gonna sit there and go like, I'm gonna jam it in there. I mean, more times than not, when you look at him, he throws the ball where it should go. He really does. So that's where I think he's gonna be better that way. I think that, you know, his...


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[Assistant] He's gonna give Frank Reich, I think, more confidence. Because Frank Reich's gonna go, I can trust him, I know what he's gonna do with the ball, I've told him the right things and what to do and what I'm thinking when I call this play. And I think that's just gonna open up the offense as well. I do. Let alone, this is a guy that, again, has played and just knows how to play the game the right way. And he, he's, he's...


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[Assistant] He's a damn good player. It's one of those where I go 14, I go, damn, I can't believe Matt Ryan is at 14 in a lot of areas, but like a Kirk Cousins, the reading reacts off the charts, off the charts, a great athlete in short areas.


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[Assistant] Makes more runs for 8 and 10 yards than you think when you watch kind of break it down. Makes another guy that I would go makes a ton of plays with the normal rhythm of the offense like we talked about with Ryan Tannehill. Yea. Where you go the play wasn't really designed to hit the guy 40 yards down the middle.


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[Assistant] He read it and went through the reads the right way and still got there. And that's special because not all quarterbacks can do that. So that's, and then, you know, makes a lot of ton, ton of plays and throws outside the offense too, like I was saying. And that's where, that's heading into your


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[Assistant] It's, the cat, the O-line's gonna be great, the running game's gonna be great, so that's gonna help him for sure. You know, Michael Pittman Jr., I don't have much questions about him. I know he's gonna be legit, no doubt. Hey Alec, he's a rookie that you know I like. He's got a ton of talent.


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[Assistant] So I think there's enough there, and then here's to me the X factor. Yep. Paris Campbell. Paris Campbell is a superstar. You know, they even say that. He just cannot stay healthy. I mean, he was healthy for like two games last year, and he was running by everybody down the field for touchdowns.


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[Assistant] It's been a thing with him. And so if they can get him to also contribute, I go, ooh, wow. But if he's not there, I do want to kind of be like, do they need to add another guy to the receiver room there? That's just, you know, a little bit more of a threat dependable. Uh, and I think I'm pretty sure T.Y. Hilton is still out there.


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[Assistant] I wouldn't be shocked if that happened at some point, and maybe I'm wrong, but I think I'm right.


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[Assistant] No, I'm not. I'm not ready to say that yet. I almost look at them as kind of equals, I guess I would say.


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[Assistant] I think I'd probably still give the Titans a slight advantage. I'm a little surprised by this with points bet. I saw this a little earlier, but the Colts are this much of a favorite over the Titans. I'm a little surprised.


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[Assistant] Right, right, I thought it might have been that too. I'm a little surprised by that, you know, and then I think like to what we talked about a little earlier, these two teams clearly separate from the other two teams. Jacksonville, I do think has talent.


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[Assistant] It's just unproven, it's young, it's like, you know, new coach, you gotta see what they got. I think Jacksonville can be a pain in the ass for sure. Houston, Houston's just got a lot of...


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[Assistant] Good players. This guy got depth and solid.


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[Assistant] Uh, but they have no, no, nothing that I look at to go, Ooh, that's great. And they're, they're players are going to make some plays and really put some stress on some people that way. Uh, that, that, that's not going to happen. So yeah, the Colts to me, definitely one of those teams to look at in the Superbowl window and Hey, this guy, nobody's open.


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[Assistant] Protection not great. Man, there's a lot of times where you still look at it and go, man, no one's open. Protection's not great. Whoa. 12 yard game. Holy shit. Good, good job by him. And that lanky.


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[Assistant] Awkward looking white guy making people miss and throwing the ball down the field that way. So he's a hell of a player and he's tough as hell too. I think that needs to be talked about as well. Takes a lot of hits and they didn't protect him worth a shit last year. Durability is awesome.


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[Assistant] We gotta go, we gotta go, I'm gonna go points bet first, okay? And then we'll get there, because points bet pays me seven million a year, and I gotta make sure I read this, okay? Seven million, I wish. Alright, here we go.


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[Assistant] Download the PointsBet app, alright, Paulie? Yes. Do it. I will do it. Do it, Paulie. Do it. Alright.


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[Assistant] If you're in an eligible state, PointsBet has a sign up offer for unbuttoned listeners that you can't miss. Download the PointsBet app. Use code.


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[Assistant] Conviction. Thank you. Yep. You know me. I don't know anything but pedal to the metal.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I figured, I know, I gotta do that for you. And then look here, there you go, you ask and you shall receive. Oh there it is, thank you.


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[Assistant] They call six straight in Jacksonville, I never would have guessed that. And week one is an issue for them. They're like an issue, week one, so they gotta get over the hump there. And yes, those are like two where you go...


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[Assistant] You know, hey, new quarterback, team that's, you know, on the cusp, like don't blow those because you got some tough ones coming on right after that with the Chiefs and Titans. Chiefs, Titans coming up. And then at the Broncos. So that's not going to be easy. You know, game three, four and five for sure. You'd like to get that little two, two zero cushion coming out the


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[Assistant] Out the gates there, but yes, I expect the Colts and Matt Ryan to be a major player in the talented, talented AFC.


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[Assistant] Well yeah, you know what? And I didn't mean to do that, but the guy is kind of, uh, I don't know if you want to say unlucky, the circumstances around him are not looking good right now. That's for sure. And that's the Sean Watson.


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[Assistant] Right. I don't know what to make of Deshaun Watson. I'm just gonna, I'm not, you know, again, I know what Deshaun Watson is. Yeah. When playing and hitting on all cylinders. It's been a year and a half. Right. That's superstar. It's, I know he's a superstar. I know that, but still.


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[Assistant] Like I discuss with people all the time, you know, I think people think, well, he's Deshaun Watson. He's just going to come back and week one, he'll be one of the five best quarter racks in football. He might not be there in week 14. Well, there's a, that's the first thing. No doubt about it. And you know, that's where I sometimes going to go, like what do people don't hear what comes out of their mouth sometimes.


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[Assistant] We see great quarterbacks miss two or three games and come back and not be good for two or three weeks.


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[Assistant] What do you, I mean, he didn't get to practice for a year. He didn't play for a year.


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[Assistant] So I can't, like, and then of course yeaah, like, we know there's some guys in front of him that are really damn good, and all that, to where, I don't know what to make of him right now. You know? Again, I know what he can be when we get back and we're grooming and all that, but when is that gonna be? And, and my heart of hearts,


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[Assistant] I don't think that's going to be this year. I don't. I, I, I don't think that he's going to be playing football this year when it's really all said and done here. I don't, I don't think we're seeing play this year. And it's not helping that there's two more lawsuits, right? The, the, the salon he was paying, what, $5,000 for the person to set up massages for. It's getting worse.


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[Assistant] So where, I just have a hard time, the NFL with the Washington stuff that's going on with the commanders, and workplace culture and all that, I have a hard time that they're gonna let him just slide with some easy suspension for sure.


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[Assistant] Yes, I do. I just, I just think it's, it's, again, it's...


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[Assistant] Four? I know, I know. You know, it's just, yes, I do. I think he's gonna be rusty. There's some other guys that, like, we talked about have jumped in the conversation who are, you know,


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[Assistant] You know, up and worthy of Deshaun level, Deshaun Watson level at number four type of quarterbacks that, that hurt his case here a little bit. But yes, I think that's a lot to overcome. Plus you're going to be learning a new system. I get that. But yeah, as I was saying, I mean,


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[Assistant] Hey, I mean, Peyton Manning missed four weeks. You know, Aaron Rodgers missed four weeks. When they came back, it took them three or four weeks to look good. You miss a year and a half of football. And again, not like you got all the training camp and all these reps and everything. And then, oh, I got hurt for a few weeks and now I'm back. It's no, we haven't gotten any of that.


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[Assistant] There were no practice last year. None. Zero practice. Yes, I know he threw some footballs on the field by himself and all that. So yeah, I don't expect him to come back and doing all that. And he's with a new team. And he's with a new system. Exactly right. So that's, that's not, that's not easy. Now does Shawn Watson win?


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[Assistant] He's, you wanna go back to what I thought last year and we can hit on that? Uh, there, there's, the guy's got no negatives about his game. He's a super son. He's fun to watch. He's no, no negatives. He's, he's, his only negative is, as I've said and people who have listened to me maybe the last two years of the rankings is he just,


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[Assistant] Every, sometimes every play can be the last play of the game and you want to just go, go down, don't take that hit, throw the ball away, whatever, because you're awesome.


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[Assistant] I mean, in the pocket, decision making, throwing the football, all that is, is through the roof good. Right. And then the ability to make plays off schedule and all that, it's through the roof good. I know that, but that's, you know, like you said, a year and a half ago,


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[Assistant] And it's been a long time since he's played football. And as I've always said, I, people don't respect practicing quarterback.


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[Assistant] And emulating it to game level stuff is impossible. It's impossible.


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[Assistant] No doubt. Despite what you think about him personally or his personal life, what he does on the field and when he's all system go like you're talking about, he's special. I mean he did that in a year that you're talking about with no DeAndre Hopkins, no running game, okay offensive line play, and


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[Assistant] Like, really had a phenomenal year. It didn't end up on wins and losses. They were 4-12 that year, but they were like this close to winning like four other games that they had no business being in, but they were in it because number four. But number four's got some issues, and like I said, it's a weird one here.


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[Assistant] I know ultimately he's more talented and better than this.


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[Assistant] But a year off from football, and I don't know, maybe my thought of the fact that I don't think he's going to play football this year infiltrated me to where I made him 13 as well.


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[Assistant] If it is that way. They're one of those teams where I think they're so good that I don't think it's going to be like, oh no, they're done. They're done. So like 500? Yeah. I mean, who knows? Running game gets hot and Jacoby can get in a groove a little bit and, you know, make a few plays here and there and take care of the football.


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[Assistant] I, I, I do, you know, they have the type of talent to where I go, they don't have to win just through the quarterback.


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[Assistant] They should be able to win through the run game and screens and Miles Garrett should get a strip.


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[Assistant] They should be able to make shit happen no matter what to a degree. Yeaah. But it's a tough situation, and you say what you want, this thing is a distraction.


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[Assistant] And that's gonna play into the fact of this too. You don't think Cleveland players, you know, I just heard Greg Newsome and Jeremiah Utsukoromo talk about just the Baker Mayfield OBJ thing was a little bit of a distraction in the locker room last year. You don't think they're sitting there talking about Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield and that shit right now in that locker room? Come on. Fuck me. Yes they are.


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[Assistant] So that's where, you know, this is a really, really awkward, different situation. You know, I can't remember one like it really, but this type of high level player.


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[Assistant] Even if the suspension is less than, I think, I don't think it's gonna be less than eight games. So, I mean, it's, it's, it's...


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[Assistant] I just think with the current environment in our country, what's going on around the league, the Trevor Bauer stuff, there continues to be more Watson stuff that comes out. I have a hard time thinking that the NFL won't make a point here with the Sean Watson.


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[Assistant] But you're right. I mean, well, you got the top ten in the NFL right now. And really, I mean, yes. Watson, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill. I mean, those are stars. They're stars. They are.


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[Assistant] I think, listen, I understand, yes, I look at him going,


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[Assistant] I understand you're Kirk. I think he's Kirk Cousins plus in his top end where I'd go. You just had Kirk at 16. Right, right. I think that the Daniel Jones talent can be higher than that. I do. Daniel Jones, one, is a much bigger human being than Kirk Cousins. I mean, Daniel Jones is a big dude. People don't realize it. We're talking 6'5".


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[Assistant] It's a, it's only trade his size. His ability to run to what our daughter, it's real there, right? Yeah. Yes. His arm is not wowing, but it's good. It's every bit. It's as good as Kirk cousins there.


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[Assistant] And then, you know, his accuracy is, I think, right up there with it too. I don't think it's far off. Now, feel for the game? That's a valid question at CSimsQB2. Uh, he, he needs to have a little bit of a feel of what we talked about in the pocket. Don't be quite so robotic. Sure.


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[Assistant] But to me where he's different than Cousins and has better potential is, again, he's a guy that can get out of the pocket and you go, whoa, that was a good throw in the run. Or you go, whoa, he just ran down the sidelines for 45 yards.


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[Assistant] Whoa, he kept the read option for a 70 yard touchdown run. Like, Kirk Cousins can't do that. I know that. So, I think he's a little bit more potential than Kirk Cousins. Again, Daniel Jones.


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[Assistant] I think has a lot of things that I like. It's just, hey, let's, let's give him a chance here with a little support and see if he can be what we think he can be. But that's a good question by, uh, at CSimsQB number two.


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[Assistant] You know, I don't know if it'll go, it'll be interesting to see. It will be. I do think he can make a jump. There's no doubt.


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[Assistant] Because of his talent. I do. Yeah, you know, Jimmy G, again, the one thing that really jumped out to me when I talked about him and broke him down was, hey, yeah, there's a lot of good throws and he's tough and he can throw with sidearm and doing all that, but damn, there's a lot of yards and plays left on the field because of his inability.


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[Assistant] To make a big throw down the field, or the guys wide open, and it should be a 70 yard touchdown, you've heard me say this, he's gotta stop.


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[Assistant] And do that, or Debo Samuel screaming down the middle of the field and it should be a 50 yard game but he throws a slant behind him and now he's gonna fall to the ground and it's a 12 yard game. There's a lot of that, let alone so many of his plays like I talked about.


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[Assistant] We're really what I thought Shanahan's specials. Tua has a little bit more of ability, again, to change arm angles, be a little bit more slick in the pocket and finding windows, and I think he has a little bit more


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[Assistant] Athletic ability to make a few things off schedule to where, you know,


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[Assistant] I think he could make that jump into the top 20 at least. I do think he has that type of potential. I do, but we'll see. The one thing that Jimmy G clearly has over Tua.


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[Assistant] Is with people bearing down on him and the pocket collapsing, Jimmy G can still stand in there and throw a ball 15 yards down the middle. And I'm not sure about that, but to it yet.


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[Assistant] There's a lot of those type of plays that go, oh, I'm not throwing it, I can't see it, or I'm just gonna tuck down and take the sack, and Jimmy G would stand there and go, well, I'm gonna get hit in the chin, but I'm gonna make the throw and it's gonna be a completion. Those are some of the things, too, it needs to be better at.


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[Assistant] It's a great question. Listen, as I discussed on the pod on Tuesday, this was, I mean, really tough here. I originally had Garoppolo ahead of Wentz, and then switched it. Alright? How much of that?


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[Assistant] It is. Well, because again, it's one of those things where, yea, I got it down or whatever, but then you start to get into, wait, we're doing this grouping here, and I even will get a little more nitpicky. And then also I've had a time to digest it and talk about it more with, you know, my dad or myself and just think about it a little more.


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[Assistant] There definitely is. I think this was the second time I did this so far during the list. It might have been the third. I think it was the second time.


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[Assistant] So, to the question itself, listen, I understand week 18 was not good for Wentz. I get that. You know, and I know Jimmy did a lot of good things too. I get that too. You know, it's not like I'm not trying to kill Jimmy.


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[Assistant] Uh, the question here though is what, the Colts, would they make the playoffs with Jimmy?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I, I, I, I understand that. I, I don't quite, you know, I'm gonna blame when, sure.


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[Assistant] I also would sit there and go, Winston have the talent of the team of the 49ers around him. He definitely did not. And nor did he have Kyle Shanahan just deliver it up like, hey, here's a wide open guy. Here's, here's a screen and Deebo Samba is going to be able to run 60 yards down the side of the field. And when we just talked about the Colts, is there enough weapons and all that?


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[Assistant] You know, there's a little difference there as far as to me and to what


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[Assistant] Carson once was asked to do as compared to Jim, uh, Jimmy Garoppolo. You know, so that's where, again, if we go by how I'm evaluating this and we're all on the same team, we don't get the 49ers and Shanahan.


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[Assistant] All right. It's my team and I'm the offensive coordinator. I'm average at best. Okay. I'm an average offensive coordinator. Carson Wentz can run the system to me.


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[Assistant] I mean, I know, whoa, you beat the Packers? He didn't do shit and made the dumbest mistake of the game. I mean, what?


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[Assistant] And we talked about the Cowboys game. Should have been a blowout.


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[Assistant] Let them in it because he missed throws and made mistakes down the stretch. Stupid interception. Mrs. Brandon Ayuk wide open for a first down is going to like put the game away.


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[Assistant] So, you know, again, don't just go, well, they went 2-0 in the playoff, so he's better. No, no. Because they blocked a punt. Exactly. There's a lot of things that went into that before we can just make those type of statements. I'm not trying to be a jerk to at-grant receipts. I'm just, you know me, once you get me going, I gotta make my points.


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[Assistant] Listen, this is a weird one, my man Kenny. What is that? At Kenny Wit- At Kenny Wit the Coke. At Kenny Wit the Coke. Alright. There'll be a story there. At Kenny Wit the Coke. You got the Coke? I guess is that what you're saying? I got that right, correct? You did. You did. I had to read it twice because I was like, wait, no, not only because of you, because I was like-


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[Assistant] I didn't deduct it. You know, again, I think even in that game, let's just go into that a little bit, where...


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[Assistant] So, you know, hey, this is New England. New England doesn't care. I don't think he should be dinged for that. I don't think so either. You know, what I would have to say though, then at Keddie is, I'd go, but he gets points added on in the fact that they ran an offense and he was trusted more than Jimmy Garoppolo was in San Francisco or Carson Wentz was with the Indianapolis Colts. So he gets more points for that too.


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[Assistant] And that's where I would go. That's, that's, that's, you gotta keep that into mind too. It's a rookie quarterback who was asked to run a very intricate, tough system.


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[Assistant] Not the most talented group of cast catchers and stuff around them. And a down year for their run game in their offensive line. So you gotta remember that with Mac Jones too. But, uh, I hear you, that was a good question and that was one of the weirdest, funnest games to watch this year.


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[Assistant] Not today wasn't, not today wasn't good, but we're getting into, uh, it's, it's superstar category now. We're getting close to that, so.


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[Assistant] Thanks Paulie. You the man. Good to see you. Always. Keep sending me questions. The questions were great today. They really were. I love... Keep them coming.


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[Assistant] I love the homies' reaction questions to the top 40. They make me think, I want to answer those questions for you, and excuse me if I sound a little jerky sometimes when I get going. It's just me. Just being himself. I want to make my points. It's not personal to you. Alright everybody out there, be good, have a good weekend, be safe. Paulie, you the man. See you soon. Peace out.


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[Assistant] Hi, I'm Mike Tirico and thanks for watching. Make sure to hit subscribe for the latest news and highlights from NBC Sports.


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[Assistant] I was breaking my arm trying to do this so I could see a physics problem up close. And the problem is right here.


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[Assistant] When you throw a good spiral pass, the ball starts pointed up, tips over midair, and ends pointed down. We're used to seeing a football do this.


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[Assistant] The ball pushes against the air, and the air pushes back against it.


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[Assistant] Because gravity makes the ball's trajectory a parabola, the air pushing against the ball changes directions as it flies. When the ball is moving up, the molecules are acting as downward pressure. When it's coming down, the molecules are pushing up.


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[Assistant] And just like the spinning top pointing against the downward force of gravity to stay vertical, the spinning football wants to push against the main force acting against it.


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[Assistant] Like the top on the table, the ball is going to want to wobble around its center line, its reference axis. And in this case, that ends up being the ball's trajectory, its path through the air.


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[Assistant] You can see all these forces at play in this slow-mo 3D recreation. The ball takes off, pointing towards the air pushing against it and wobbling around its reference axis. It follows the trajectory gravity laid out for it, eventually reaching a point where it starts coming back down.


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[Assistant] But in regular motion, it just looks like the ball is tipping over.


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[Assistant] It's 2006. This is referee Horacio Elizondo giving a red card to Zinedine Zidane because he head-budded Marco Matarazzi. Due to budget concerns, let's say this is the video of it happening.


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[Assistant] This really was a big deal. It has been sculpted. But this isn't the only famous part of that match.


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[Assistant] It also featured Zidane shooting one of the greatest penalty kicks of all time.


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[Assistant] What happens when you strip away all the emotion and psychology and chance of a penalty kick? And look at the data. Where is the best spot to place a penalty kick?


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[Assistant] The penalty kick places a player here against a keeper.


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[Assistant] The penalty kick shootout helps decide a game in the event of a tie.


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[Assistant] It's the same thing, but with kickers from each team in succession, to see which team scores the most after 5 chances. A PK shootout from Spain 1982 looks pretty similar to one in Russia in 2018, or Qatar.


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[Assistant] So, you could record every PK shootout shot and find out which spot


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[Assistant] Yeah, exactly. Pablo Lopez Landeros is a data scientist and sports obsessive hobbyist who recorded every World Cup shootout kick from 1982 to 2018.


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[Assistant] He recorded the team, the foot to kick her shot with,


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[Assistant] Where the keeper went, whether the ball was on target or not, if it did go in, and if it was an elimination goal.


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[Assistant] They dove to the left from the player's perspective more than they dove right.


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[Assistant] They often dive before seeing a shot's trajectory, so it can really be worth knowing the probabilities. They stayed in the middle only about 13% of the time, where the save percentage was also the lowest. These stats work in concert with where the kicks ended up.


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[Assistant] If you divide the goal into nine common zones, it's possible to see where players kick the most.


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[Assistant] For all shots, including misses, the lower corners were the most common targets. But that doesn't mean they were best. These are the success rates by zone, and there are clear trends. The top middle has a high miss rate, likely a combination of it getting stopped by the keeper,


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[Assistant] Or missing the goal completely, like in this classic shot from a 1994 penalty kick shootout. Meanwhile, the most popular area, that lower left corner,


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[Assistant] Actually has a lower success rate than the opposite corner. The top spot is that top right corner, where 88% of shots in World Cup shootouts resulted in a goal.


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[Assistant] When you combine the keeper dives with the shooting data, that right side looks like it's undervalued by kickers. So, is that the final answer? Always shoot it there if you can.


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[Assistant] Let's go back to the 1976 European football championship, Czechoslovakia versus West Germany.


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[Assistant] This is Antonin Panenka, and he's holding this trophy because of a penalty kick strategy that he basically invented. He approaches.


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[Assistant] Looks normal, you think he'll hit it hard in that top right corner. The keeper dives. But look, Paninca has just gently tapped it in.


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[Assistant] It's a bluffin' poker, a bunt in baseball, a fake punt in that game with the oblong brown ball.


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[Assistant] You can have data that suggests that the top right corner or even those center zones are kind of undervalued, but ultimately the penalty kick is a head game. Which brings us back to Zidane.


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[Assistant] In 2006, that greatest penalty kick of all time, it wasn't a cannon to the top right.


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[Assistant] He approached, the keeper dove to that statistically likely lower left corner.


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[Assistant] While Zidane casually sailed it through the center, a panenka kick, where it hit the goalpost and crossed the line into history. Oh! It crossed the line, it's a goal, but how?


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[Assistant] It's easy to see the difference when you look at modern players versus the old school players side by side. This is William Halflefinger. In 1892, he became the first person to be paid to play football. And he's a decently big guy. He's 6'4", he's 178 pounds. But compare that to players today, and he looks tiny.


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[Assistant] Take the New England Patriots Alan Branch. He's 6'6", 350 pounds. Or the Atlanta Falcons Jake Matthews. He's 6'5", 309 pounds.


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[Assistant] And in training camps in 2010, 532 players weighed over 300. These charts by Alex Bresler show the change in NFL players' height and weight from 1936 until 2013. Over time, players got taller and heavier on average.


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[Assistant] That size specialization probably had to do with the ways that the rules have changed over time. Before the 1950s, substitutions were limited, so players played multiple positions, offense and defense. And that discouraged specialization.


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[Assistant] And then in the 1970s, blocking below the waist became illegal, which basically moved offensive line action above the waist. Before that, if linemen were too top-heavy, they would be more vulnerable to old-school blocking techniques that would knock out their knees.


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[Assistant] These heavy players are still really athletic, but the rapid increase in weight comes with some serious health concerns.


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[Assistant] So yes, many players have gotten bigger as the game of football has evolved, and they've helped their teams out by bulking up. But it does come at a price.


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[Assistant] If you were to put sports and games on a continuum where the outcomes reflect pure skill on the right side and pure luck on the left side, where would the big team sports go? Somewhere in the middle, right? But in what order?


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[Assistant] Michael Mobison did these calculations for his book, The Success Equation. And his findings remind us what we love so much about these sports.


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[Assistant] Mobison's continuum is based on the regular season for each league, and he found that skill explains less than half of the season's standings for the NHL. But that's not to say hockey players are any less skilled.


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[Assistant] Like the number of chances teams have to score during the game. That's another type of sample size.


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[Assistant] The number of players matters too. Tennis is a sport where skill plays a much bigger role, in large part because there simply aren't many people involved.


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[Assistant] That's why Serena Williams could hold the number one rank for 186 consecutive weeks from 2013 to 2016. When skill dominates, outcomes are more predictable.


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[Assistant] In a sport like swimming or sprinting, the activities are even more individual, essentially racing a clock.


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[Assistant] But in team sports, you have more players and lots of interactions. And what matters isn't just how many are on the field at a time, but how possession is distributed among the team's players over the course of the game.


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[Assistant] Hockey is inherently really fast and erratic, so even the best players need to rest. And that puts some limits on how much their skill can influence the results.