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[Assistant] None of it was, oh, I'm gonna play the three receiver stack over here and go through the read and find the guy that way. Every time he did that, that shit was covered up and that concerns me. Now, I hope I get proven wrong. I do.


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[Assistant] Also, I'm sorry, but the damn shotgun every play frustrates me. It frustrates me. You know, give the defense a different look. It's just, it's comfort zone every time. Oh, okay, two receivers here, two receivers here. Oh, okay, here's the quarterback. Okay. Oh, what are they gonna do?


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[Assistant] Fake the read option. Oh no, we haven't seen that in the history of football. I have serious questions about that type of crap right now on their offense.


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[Assistant] And I got you covered there, because I wrote this down. I just wrote, first of all, they just call plays.


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[Assistant] And sometimes therefore they waste plays because they run plays where I would go, ooh, John Gruden or Joshua McDaniels would go, we don't want to run that play into that look. We're not going to win. That's not a recipe for success there. So that bothers me. And then I wrote NFL defensive players have seen these concepts already too much through training camp.


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[Assistant] And I just wrote, and bikes are all over it. They're all over it. It was all your basics, you know what I mean? And I'm not going to sit here and get too in the weeds about football, but that's what


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[Assistant] I worry about with that. I, Kyler Murray's gonna be fine. I just, are they gonna help him enough?


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[Assistant] Yes, yes, I did. That didn't surprise me. I mean, it didn't surprise me. I'm hoping for better, but this was my issue all along. And I know, I know, like Cliff has all the tools to be an NFL head coach. What I have always argued is,


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[Assistant] Lack of people he's been around. He doesn't know what he doesn't know yet. That's, that's where I really worry about it in general. And, so that, that, that's the little things I worry. Are they gonna have enough of a run game?


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[Assistant] To keep people honest, on the read option, or the RPOs, you know, play action pass, I would think would be right up Kyler Murray's alley, really. I mean, what, there's no rules, who can put him underneath the center? Why does he have to be in the shotgun every play?


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's it. That's it. Yep, that's spot on. And the other quarterback. Thanks for wrapping it up.


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[Assistant] Kirk Cousins, uhm, was not his best day. Oddly enough, Kirk Cousins got a little into the Jimmy Garoppolo thing I just talked about. Feet got a little lazy. There was a few throws where it was just all arm. Leg was planted into the ground.


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[Assistant] It just, it became something with defeat where, you know, at points, I don't know if it's in practice, or you get seven on seven, or too many no defense drills, or...


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[Assistant] You know, just the monotony of camp where maybe you get a little lazy with some of your footwork to where you go, no, hey man, like this is okay right now in seven on seven, but when it comes Sunday and it's like everybody's flying around at a hundred percent, I'm not sure that ball's gonna squeeze through that window you think is like cool right now in seven on seven on a Wednesday practice. Right.


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[Assistant] He lost control of the ball. If you went back and watched all his throws, you would see there was a few throws too. The ball really fluttered out of his hand and became very jerky because his legs were not in sequence with him.


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[Assistant] I worry about the Minnesota Vikings. It's the vice versa of last year right now. Their offensive line is going to be a little bit better. Their run game is going to be better. Because of Kubiak, right? You know, we saw Dalvin Cook have the long touchdown run.


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[Assistant] What I worry about is the pass game. I do. I don't know if I see anything that excites me there, uh, in that pass game.


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[Assistant] You know, the five or six games a year where, Oh, the other team's got two corners where Diggs and Thiel and they just can't get open all game long. Like you just can't say, Oh, they're going to win the one-on-one matchup. Right. And is there enough offense?


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[Assistant] And stuff to get them open. Concepts. And for me, that has been a little scary with Minnesota throughout the preseason at this point. Does that go back to last year as well? Well, last year I was almost the opposite. I felt like, ooh, John DiFilippo, I kinda like some of the passing stuff, but would he freakin' run the ball? Can we run it a little?


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[Assistant] My issue is Kubiak, and especially in the Denver years of Payton, I want to just go, damn, can we, can we get something away from the first week of installation from the West Coast offense and do a little bit more?


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[Assistant] I've never seen him off target the way he was in the game. And now off target for, for Baker Mayfield is different than off target for Jimmy Garoppolo or Kirk Cousins. Because Baker Mayfield off target is like, you go, oh, the receiver, oh, he could have caught that if he just, that was close. Didn't miss by much. Didn't miss by much. Like, but, uh,


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[Assistant] There's a few things that go into this. First off...


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[Assistant] I have a few issues, I'm not sold on Cleveland's O-Line Pass Protection. Their right guard is, he's been an issue and I think he can continue to be an issue. Talked about that last week. I know, I know. And it's, it reared his head a little bit here.


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[Assistant] Uh, against the Buccaneers, especially in Damocon Sioux, who looks good by the way. Let me just reassure everybody there. He does. He looks like he lost weight and he's in better shape.


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[Assistant] I know, he was kind of impressive from what I was seeing there. So I think with Baker Mayfield, I look at that, okay.


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[Assistant] Another thing we have to take into account here, you know, there's no OBJ, no Jarvis Landry, no David Njoku, none of them are playing in the game, right? The Bucs played man to man a lot.


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[Assistant] But they got, oh, they're not playing, let's get in their face, let's work on our man-to-man coverage, which therefore allowed them to blitz and do some things like that, where I go, if OBJ's on the field, they're not going to leave Vernon Hargraves on an island with him, 40 plays in a row. I'm just sorry, because they're going to lose 25 of them, badly, you know.


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[Assistant] We have to take that into account. We also have to take into account Todd Bowles knows that offense very good, right? He came from Bruce Arians, and, and Freddie Kitchens is from Bruce Arians, so it's a similar system. So those are little things I look at, but with Baker, it was one thing, and I'm gonna jib this one more time, okay?


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[Assistant] I like your flannel shirt today. In the middle of summer, it's really nice.


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[Assistant] But here's my one issue with Baker, that I've never really seen this with, and Baker is about as pure a thrower as I've ever seen. But a little bit like how, you know, you talk about Kirk Cousins, Baker's usually perfect, and the arm stays pretty tight. He got into a little bit the other night of really


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[Assistant] And I do think because of that, I saw so many, and I was going frame by frame and sewing it down, where I just felt like his arm was like way back in this position behind his head, more than I've ever seen before. And for me, for a guy who you know is very nuanced into really checking that out, and I'm pretty photographic memory with guys and their motions and things like that, that was what jumped out to me, and also I'll throw this one other little factor out there.


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[Assistant] The legend of swamp ass is real in Tampa, okay, this time of the year, okay, because you can have some snaps where it's wet ball drill. Oh my gosh. The humidity down there, I mean I used to have to make my center


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[Assistant] Yeaah, yeaah, yeaah. Yes, alright. I'm not concerned about Baker Mayfield. I think it was an outlier against a team when not, he's not at full strength and the team has great knowledge of what they do on that side of the ball. And Tampa's got a new staff and it's the third pre-season game and they're home and they want to impress their coach, you know, their fans and all that. That all plays into it a little bit.


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[Assistant] No, it was, it was not his best day either, but I'll say this, a little bit the same way.


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[Assistant] First off, they didn't have Mike Evans out there, okay? Uhm, they couldn't run the ball, and where they really had an issue, more than anything, and I don't put this on Jameis Winston, because I didn't look, come away from the game going, oh, Jameis made some stupid decisions, or Jameis really threw the ball poorly. It was more like,


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[Assistant] Damn, nobody's open, or, holy shit, the O-line got steamrolled. I mean, the big boys played for Cleveland. Sheldon Richardson, Olivier Vernon, Miles Garrett, they were out there, and Olivier Vernon was a handful, and so was Sheldon Richardson. They dominated up front at times. And, just like I talked about, oddly enough with the Bucks,


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[Assistant] I mean, with the Browns, the Bucks, the same thing. They got a right guard issue. They really do. I've seen it rear its head in every game now. And when I get the preseason game number three and it's still going on, I go, okay, this is an issue. Like it's no longer like, oh, we're getting our feet underneath us. It's early preseason.


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[Assistant] Right guard is definitely an issue for both of those football teams. And yeaah, I mean, I would think that week one teams are going to notice that, they're going to stress those guys out, they're going to do stunts and different twists to see if they're on their game, not only physically,


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[Assistant] Ben was not perfect, but for a first preseason game, getting out there was pretty damn good. Exactly right. Ben is just so cool and calm, and the ball, he just puts it on the money almost all the time. Had a drop by Juju Smith-Schuster on an outrout on one play, and the other thing that really jumped out to me, their pa- they're O-line.


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[Assistant] I mean, it's the, it's real. It's, it's one of the best pass blocking o-lines in football. It's still really good in the run game too. James Connor, you know, we only get to see, I think it was two drives from Big Ben, but I mean, I'm not worried about, he had a Vance McDonald who dropped a pass too. Big Ben looked good. And I think that Steelers offense is going to look good too.


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[Assistant] I mean, he might be. No doubt about it. I mean, Ben Roethlisberger's greatness...


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[Assistant] Cannot always be quantified because he plays the position a little differently. It's a little backyard footballish. He puts a lot of pressure on you because you go, whoa, he can throw it everywhere. And he's one of the best deep ball throwers I've ever seen, let alone he can stand in there forever and extend plays that way too. And he can beat you with his mind and audibles at the line of scrimmage and that stuff.


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[Assistant] Looked like the Matthew Stafford I remember from two years ago. I mean, it was, it was sharp. It really was. I mean,


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[Assistant] First off, I think the first thing that I always look at is a guy's body, right? I do. It's just the way I am. So, okay, it's the first time I see him in film. Looks like he's in incredible shape. Like he's tightened up a little bit. You know, whether, I don't know if it means he ran more wind sprints or he's been squatting more. But either way, the shit looks tighter in the uniform. And, yes, uhm, the throwing...


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[Assistant] You could say anything you want about Matthew Stafford, and I know not everybody thinks he's real good, I am a defender of him because I think he's been really the only thing making shit happen up there for a long time. And last year he fell off because of the culture change, and I think they were asking him to play a different style of football, and I think it got messed with his head.


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[Assistant] But I look at the way he threw the ball, and then your guy, Hawkinson. Yeaah. Who's gonna be legit, okay? Kenny Golliday, Marvin Jones, like, the Lions are one of these teams where...


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[Assistant] I know I'm gonna pick my playoff teams and stuff. I don't quite know how to place them yet. There's a lot of good to like about them the more you watch.


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[Assistant] No, that's the issue. And the O line is real. The D line is real. Um, Daryl Bevel, who was a big question for me in Seattle and a big question for me hiring him here in Detroit.


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[Assistant] I felt like just from looking at the first three games, and especially this game with Matthew Stafford, I said, I think Darrell Bevels re-orchestrated his formula of calling plays.


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[Assistant] I feel like it wasn't a lot of personnel set changes, a lot of formation changes, and he did everything. Two tight ends are in the game, we're gonna play Smash Mouth football. Next time he's in shotgun and spread, nobody's in the backfield. But the two tight ends are still in the game. Those are little things I look at.


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[Assistant] That's really helpful. I think it did. I think because as you know, most of these guys have the same plays. Right. It's about how you call them.


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[Assistant] It all looks the same, but it's a little different every play to where you got the linebacker and safety's headspinning. Okay, it's, it's the speed sweep. Oh, it's the fake speed sweep zone run. Oh, it's the fake speed sweep fake zone screen pass. And then it's display action pass off that and then that's what a good OC does.


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[Assistant] Nick Foles, you know, it wasn't like earth shattering, but they're a different looking football team, but Nick Foles is a quarterback. They really are. I mean, I just, I think it's gonna make their run game, uh, a lot more respectable because they're, they got some speed on the outside.


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[Assistant] And Foles is aggressive. I mean, he threw an interception when he was scrambling to his right because he was aggressive. He was trying to be aggressive and make a play as he was running through the ball behind the guy a little bit. But I think either way,


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[Assistant] I like Nick Foles and what he does to that team. That's a big team. He's big in the pocket. He's fearless with people around him. And he's just got a great feel of throwing the ball over the middle into the right spots. Doesn't do it with arm power. Doesn't more with, you know,


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[Assistant] Oh, okay, alright, let me pull up the teams, okay? I have to always pull up the teams. Who jumped out that I did not expect? Okay. Uhm, there's, okay, I'll tell you one guy who just is, I don't know if I didn't expect it, but I'm just going to say it because I got to because it looks that damn good.


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[Assistant] Is, uhm, Bush, the middle linebacker for the Steelers. Could run a little bit, huh? Holy shit!


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[Assistant] Every week it's gotten better. I got to see him in person up in training camp, but, you know, him with Mark Barron in the middle of that defense, I'm not saying it's Ryan Shazer, but damn, they, they certainly are getting close to it, to where I go, ooh, this is a big improvement for this Steelers defense.


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[Assistant] Good ones, good ones, good ones. Let me just look at my teams, hold on. Well, I mean...


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[Assistant] I haven't been thoroughly impressed with Colin Farrell. Now, to me, I don't think there's going to be any news to anybody who's listened to me, because I just don't know if he's that physically explosive and gifted. I think he's a good player, a guy who plays in the NFL for a long time. I don't see superstar in him, and that's what the number four pick to me is all about.


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[Assistant] I don't think Quinn and Williams for the Jets has been all that great to this point, alright? Uh, that's another one I'll throw out there. And as a team in general, okay, and I know Deshaun Watson didn't play, but the Houston Texans getting


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[Assistant] That's, that's, that makes me concerned overall. It's embarrassing that you can get dominated like that and have special teams issues and things like that. So, uh, those are good ones. Who else am I missing there? Anybody else? Gosh, that was a good question. I wish I would have been better prepared there.


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[Assistant] Yes, I mean, we should have gave Josh McCown some love. I mean, oh, Josh McCown just comes off this, he's just playing with his kids three days ago. Call, yeah, I'll come in 2017 for 24 and throw the ball over the field. I'm the backup, right? Yeah, you're the backup now.


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[Assistant] Okay, the Washington Redskins. What'd they do? They're Washington Redskins. I'm always a fan of Greg Manusky. Greg Manusky.


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[Assistant] Uh, first off, their D-line dominated Atlanta's O-line in the game. And that's a little thing to where I'm getting concerned about Atlanta. It's three weeks in a row where Atlanta and I go, man, Matt Ryan's got a lot of people around him. Now I know Julio's not out there, and that'll take pressure off things.


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[Assistant] But that Redskins D line, Jonathan Allen, okay, uh, not Daron, uh, Daron Payne, the two Alabama boys in the middle, Montez Sweat on the edge, with Kerrigan on the edge, they look the part, right? And Landon Collins in the background, but what impressed me was,


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[Assistant] Matt Ryan looks back to pass, and he's got three receivers to the left, and somehow six guys for the Redskins are over there. He knows how to break down offenses. So that was one, I think, that popped out to me. Uhm, and, uh, what'd you, that was good?


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[Assistant] I, I of course watched the film last week and told him, I was like, dad, it's, it's real. Like, he's playing quarterback. This is no longer just freak athlete. And...


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[Assistant] I'm sitting there watching the game, I go into the kitchen for a minute, while Tayson Hill's got the ball, and he's, holy, holy shit, holy, I can hear him in the other room, cause Tayson Hill's breaking out to make a run or a throw, and it's just like, yea, that's what kind of player he is right now.


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[Assistant] Okay, I got one read to go. Stop rushing me. I got a read to do. I rushed you. Okay? I gotta give, uh, that jerk, Florio, a little read, alright? The PFT, PM Podcast, okay? This week, Florio is with Al Riveron.


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[Assistant] I mean, I- I mean, Al's obviously trying to kiss up the Florio early here. He's trying to get on his good side before the season starts. Very smart by- very smart by Al. Good political move. Okay, so that's good. And uh, check us out. You know, me and Mike Florio, four times a week, Monday through Thursday, mostly on Pro Football Talk.


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[Assistant] We have fun. We keep it all football. We deep dive on everything. That's what we do. That's our MO. Uh, I, I would encourage anybody to watch me. Yes.


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[Assistant] Yes, and I, you know, I know we didn't get into it a whole lot, okay, but again.


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[Assistant] Josh Allen looked good. He had one full Tropic Thunder moment, okay?


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[Assistant] He had one Tropic Thunder moment, alright, where he ran out to the right and tried to throw a ball 30 yards across his body to the left, and it got intercepted, and he got lucky because it was an unnecessary roughness hit on the quarterback, okay? So he had that moment, and I wrote that down. I was like, man, that can't go on this year. That's done.


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[Assistant] Uh, but either way, the Bills D is real, the Bills O line is much improved, LaShawn McCoy is still the best running back on that football team, just so everybody out there can hear that. And between John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, and


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[Assistant] Who else am I missing? This Duke Williams, I'm telling everybody to watch out for him. Duke Williams, number 82, came from Auburn, went up and played in Canada for a little while, was like a guy that was going to be rumored as a first round pick for a while, had some issues, I don't even know the complete story. But, I am, I like the Bills. You like the Bills? Yes.


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[Assistant] No, that's not and I'm gonna go the under. Really? I am. I just can't see it. Who's their quarterback? Uhm, I don't know yet. Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen. Eventually it will be Josh Rosen. I think he gives him a higher ceiling.


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[Assistant] You're definitely taking over? I'm cheating just to pull up the schedule for a second because I just want to go. Only reason I'm pausing at all is because I maybe want to say a push. Like that's the only way I can see it because I do think that the Bills and the Jets are going to be better in that division this year.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we'll see, we'll see. He's better get in the weight room. I know that. They also got, let's see, am I just got this right? I mean, their schedule got the AFC North this year, or no, they don't have the AFC North, do they? Yes, they do. They have the AFC North and the NFC East, which is tough.


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[Assistant] I'm going push with the Patriots. I had you written down for under. You had an under? I'm gonna go push. I'm going to go push there, right at 11. Yep, what a wimp I am.


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[Assistant] Yep, actually I don't really like him that much. I would love to piss him off with this one. I'll go under. Yes, uh, you're gonna go under? Yeah. You think like way under or you think it'd be like a seven and nine under?


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[Assistant] The, the AFC is real this year. There are a lot of good quality teams. I think this could be one of those years, Paul, where like,


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[Assistant] We have a nine, a ten and six team, like maybe get left out of the playoffs. Happens. You know what I mean? We're like, the two home field advantage, or the two first round buys might be eleven and five, and everybody else is ten and six, and maybe there's a one, nine, and seven. And then there's a whole bunch of eight and eights and nine and sevens who lost in the tiebreakers, and then we just got some shit teams at the bottom who don't win very many games at all. But I would not be shocked. So, Ravens at eight and a half.


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[Assistant] I'm going to go the over. I'm going over as well. I still question that pass game.


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[Assistant] My big thing with the Ravens, too, is man, they get two cupcakes to start the season. Dolphins and Cardinals.


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[Assistant] It's just scary because I just worry about the Lamar and the passing offense still to a degree, but he's been pretty damn good this preseason to where I'm gonna, I'm gonna give it to them. And yes, they got big ol' line, big B line, great defense.


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[Assistant] I know, I'm going under. I am, I am, and I don't know, listen, I'm not sitting here saying I'm the oracle, but I'm the oracle, and I'm just, I don't know.


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[Assistant] You know, again, it's so, it's harder now to look at preseason football than ever before and get a gauge of teams. Get no readoff. Yea, like three, four years ago, we got a little feel. Teams game plan more, they play their starters more. You know, you gotta feel for what a team is truly gonna be. It's hard the last two years. It really is, but yea, I just look at the Bengals and go,


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[Assistant] I'm not thrilled about the coaching staff. Uhm, I don't think Andy Dalton's a huge difference maker. I got questions about the O-line, even though they're on the right pace, but they've lost some guys to injury. I mean, they already lost their first round pick, Jonah Williams, okay? I worry about that. On defense, I like the secondary.


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[Assistant] I like some guys on the front, but I don't know if there's real, real difference makers, enough difference makers for me to say, ooh, they're gonna, they're gonna win a lot of games coming out of the AFC North. Brown's nine and a half.


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[Assistant] I don't think I am either. That is a really good one though, nine and a half. Yeaah, I wouldn't bet this if anybody's got extra money out there. This would be the one I'd say stay away from. Yeaah, I uhm.


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[Assistant] I mean, I think the worst of browns are like nine and seven.


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[Assistant] But I don't know if I can sit here and give him 10 and 6, because of the little things I just told you about. You know, I do. I worry about overall defensive depth. I worry about their secondary. Okay?


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[Assistant] You know, uh, it's, yes, Denzel Ward's phenomenal. The rest of the group is meh to me. It's meh, alright? And so if Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson and Miles Garrett don't kick ass,


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[Assistant] Then I think they could be in trouble in the back end a lot. That worries me. And then we talked about their right guard issue on the offensive side of the ball. And hey, it's a lot of new. I've been saying kind of all off season, I'm going to pick the Browns to go to the playoffs and I feel like I've been backing off that here the last week or so. So we'll, we'll see. We'll give you the final answer on Tuesday, but yeah, I'm going to go under.


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[Assistant] And that's what's gonna be the, you know, like we said, the Andrew Luck clutch factor. Can Jacoby Percet deliver in a few of those games where


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[Assistant] You know, the Colts aren't playing their best ball, but somehow find a way to win it because Andrew Luck pulled them out. Can Jacoby Percett do that? You know, it's, it's, uh, week 13 and the Tennessee Titans are at home and they're kind of, uh, this is a boring game. They're not playing their best ball. Can he pull them through in those situations? It's really the big question.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna go, yeah, eight and eight, seven and nine, right around there, yes. Two wonders. Yep. I mean, the Lamar Miller injury, huge. Significant. Lamar Miller is a really good running back. A little bit where, again,


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[Assistant] You know, we look at Saquon Barkley last year and go, well that was a phenomenal year.


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[Assistant] I mean, he's five yards for carry behind that O line, the same O line that we all go, damn, Eli has to play quarterback behind that O line. Same thing with Lamar Miller, he averaged 4.6 yards for carry.


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[Assistant] The Houston Texans O-line was worse than the Giants last year. I mean, Deshaun Watson, he's probably just healing up now with body bruises from what he had to go through. So, yeaah, I'm going to go under there. The Texans are tough. I really love Billy O'Brien. I love the, like, the attitude and the physicality they play with. But I think this year's a little bit of a drop off.


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[Assistant] I love the Jags, I do. I mean, I'm picking the Jags to win the AFC South. I can just tell you that right now. I already know that. Uhm, I think the defense is still in the conversation for the most talented in the game, if not the most talented.


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[Assistant] I mean, Josh Allen, who you heard me during the draft, right? Josh Allen, the defense end. I wasn't sure, you know, how it would translate to football. I'm still not sure he's going to be like a superstar pass rusher because he does still has no bend.


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[Assistant] But he is a physical specimen. And he dominates in the run game. And he can push the pocket. And he got even some sacks the other night where, you know, they did some stunts and he's gonna get a few like that either way. But either way, he's one of those guys when you turn on the film you go,


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's going to be much under, but I'm going to go under with it. I, I uhm, I'm concerned about Tennessee's O-line. I'm concerned about difference makers in the pass game. I'm not sold on Marriota. Right, I'm not sold on that. You know, the defense has a lot of good.


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[Assistant] I don't know if it has great, you know, you know, uhm, the, the new OC, uhm, uh, Smith, uh, dammit, I'm forgetting, is, is it, I want to say Arthur, is it Arthur, guys? Somebody say, it's Arthur, right? His, his dad, you started FedEx, did you know that? Uh, yeaah, that's just amazing, right? His dad really is, started FedEx.


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[Assistant] He knows how to deliver from the ground or the pass, the air, air or the ground delivery. But I am going to go below for the, I'm going to go under for the Titans. All right, Titans under eight to the AFC West Broncos seven. Gosh, damn it. The damn Broncos. What am I going to do here? Ooh, man. Okay.


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[Assistant] I like Joe, I will say their O-line has been a little underwhelming too here through the start of the pre-season.


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[Assistant] Gosh, it's seven wins. What are you feeling? This one's a tough one. I'm on the fence about this one. I'm gonna give him eight and eight, so I'll go over. Okay.


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[Assistant] You know- Wanna double up? Yeah, I think I'm gonna go the same way. I'm gonna go over with you. I'm glad. You're gonna keep this? You're gonna put this away in your- I am.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm gonna hang on to this. Okay, don't get too old in the next year, so make sure you can read it still. It's not easy. Chiefs, 10 and a half. Chiefs, O-line. Chiefs offense, I think, is going to be better than last year.


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[Assistant] I mean, that's insane that I'm saying that out loud. Defense can't be a whole lot worse. It can't be a whole lot worse. It definitely cannot. They're going to be more stout against the run. They're not going to be one of the worst in football stopping the run this year. I can promise you that. That's how they re-orchestrated their defensive line and Justin Houston and D-Ford aren't there anymore. They're kind of going the size angle.


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[Assistant] Chris Jones is starting in the middle, you know, uh, Naughty, the other, uh, guy from Florida States there, they got Frank Clark on the edge, they got Okafor on the other edge, so they're going more power-based this year. I do worry a little about Steve Spagnolo because he can do too many defenses and sometimes they're just not sound because they do too much.


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[Assistant] But I think I'm going to go over for the Chiefs. I'm going to go over. I'm going under. Going under? They're going to get figured out a little bit.


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[Assistant] Yeah, the Chargers are, they're the one of the teams I'm really struggling with here, just as how good they're gonna be. Uhm.


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[Assistant] They really are. Because? I, I, I don't know what it is about that I guess a little bit will worries me. Joey Bosa's health.


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[Assistant] Still a little bit of a lack of big people in the interior D line. Tillery is back. Melvin Gordon? Yea, Melvin Gordon issue scares me. Derwin James being out, right?


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[Assistant] I'm not necessarily, tune in on Tuesday for my playoffs. That's one I'm not sure. It's a shaky over. Might change it. Yea, don't put a lot of money on that one. Raider's six and a half. Oooooh, doctor.


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[Assistant] Six and a half for the Raiders. That's like the perfect line for them. I do think the Raiders are going to be much improved. What were the Raiders last year? Five and eleven? Is that what they ended up? Uh, I'll tell you right now. They were four and twelve. Four. Yeah, four and twelve. Damn, they were worse than I remembered. Okay, so.


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[Assistant] You know, there's a lot of, there's a lot of unproven commodities. They're a young, they're in the rebuild. I mean, let's just not forget that.


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[Assistant] It would not be a disaster. No, I mean, if they got to eight and eight, I'd go, damn, that was a really successful season.


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[Assistant] And they're going, like we said, we talked about it a lot in the off-season. I mean, they, they won the off-season. They're one of those teams that are up there. It's just, hey, it's Cleland Farrell's first year. It's Abrams' first year. You know, it's, it's...


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[Assistant] Josh Jacobs, who looks phenomenal, first year as the Antonio Brown experiment. You know, it's, there's a lot of things there. Trent Brown's going from left tackle back to right tackle.


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[Assistant] You know, the defensive line doesn't just overwhelm me in general. The secondary, I look at some things and go, I like it, but there's other areas I go, Oh, I don't know. Can they really cover people man to man on big situations on a third and four and stop people that way? I'm not sure about all that. So yeah, I got questions there.


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[Assistant] Uhm, okay, you know the two Robbie's, right? Two Robbie's podcast, right? Good dudes. They are good dudes. I know. I've talked a little ball with them. They have the two Robbie's podcast. If you're trying to get brushed up on soccer, Premier League football, okay, Premier League soccer, as they say in this country, Robbie Mustel, Robbie Earl, they'll recap match, uh, recap


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[Assistant] We'll just say that. Yeah, that's okay. Yep, uh, kid can't even read. And then, uh, Trouble for Manchester United after losing to Crystal Palace. Damn, man, you lost to Crystal Palace? I don't watch a lot, do you? I'm not right now, I can't. I'm total football and just trying to, by a thread, pay attention to my Yankees. That's all I can do.


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[Assistant] Crystal Palace, I can't even, sometimes when I see that I go, is that like some cheap casino down in Atlantic City? That's Rebecca Lowe's favorite. Is Rebecca Lowe's favorite?


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[Assistant] I don't know anybody on Tottenham right now to say if I like them or not.


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[Assistant] But I, uh, they're, first off, the Robbie's are cool. Okay? Awesome dude. They got style. Sincerely, yeaah. I see sometimes one of them's got the top button up there.


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[Assistant] Alright, alright, that's it. The music's out, okay? And Thursday we will do NFC over-under.


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[Assistant] NFC over-unders on Thursday. Next week, I'm gonna give my whole playoff division breakdowns and we're gonna get all into the bracket and everything. And are you doing next Tuesday? Next Tuesday. Are you? Do we know? We don't know that. If you are invited.


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[Assistant] If you are invited, we'll figure it out, and the cool clu- the cool club later? Omid. Omid's in? Omid's in. Damn, okay. Coming back from Louisville then. I won nonetheless, okay? At some point.


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[Assistant] Okay, you're down with that? Alright, that's it. Chris Sims on button. You know where to find us. Youtube.com slash NBC Sports if you want to watch us there and then you can download us anywhere podcasts are available.


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[Assistant] Paulie Burmeister, you the man. Thanks for coming in, man. You look good. Even though you're really winging it open, that chest hair is a few scraggly grays there. Take care of that. See ya, peace, we're out.


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[Assistant] Yo yo, what's up? Come on man, subscribe on YouTube to Chris Sims on Button Podcast. I need you, please hit the subscribe button, please!


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[Assistant] You know me, I like to self-scout thyself, and within doing that, I was wrong, uh, and I just want everybody


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[Assistant] I'm never wrong, except when it comes to picking games, okay, and best bets, uh, yes, uh, this asshole you see on the left of your screen. Mike Florio is beating me. All right, let's get right to it. Michael, how are you? I haven't talked to you in an hour. You miss me? You okay? That was a quick turnaround.


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[Assistant] I think that's fair. And they were going to open up with your dog barking in the background. I told her to shut up, but I don't know. I like that one better, but either way, that doesn't matter. All right, here we go. Last week, just straight up. All right. You were 10 and four. I was 12 and two.


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[Assistant] For the season, you got a five game lead on me straight up. All right. There we go. You know, that's a very important one to be, uh, for me. I want to beat you in straight up weekly, yearly. Um, I, I feel like I'm, I'm going to do that this week. I'm going to gain ground. I just feel like you're going to be.


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[Assistant] Alright, best bets. Florio, you did a great job. Cowboys, Kansas City, you got it last week. You went 2-1 with your best bets. I went 0-3.


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[Assistant] That really hurt me. That drives me crazy. And now in the best bets of the year, you do have a three game lead on me. Uh, so Florio up by five straight up, up by three with our best bets. Who gives a crap about all the against the spread for the year kind of crap. And, um,


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[Assistant] I would never bet any of those games or I don't care. Like I told you some of those games. First off your best bets. Man, you had a shamrock, a horseshoe and a whole bunch of other things up your ass last week. Okay. Whole bunch of other things, but that's another matter. Let's get into this.


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[Assistant] You don't ever bring it up on PFT, but when you win weeks, you lead off every show with it. Okay. So kiss it, uh, where the sun don't shine. All right. Here we go.


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[Assistant] Colts, Texans, we got a good Thursday night game. And Thursday night games, I think we both agree, have been really fun and exciting, and we've had a good schedule this year.


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[Assistant] Uhm, Colts of Texans, Texans favored by three and a half over under at 45 and a half. Uhm, we talked a lot about this on the show. I know where you're leaning here, but go ahead, give you a little explanation to why you like the Colts to win this one.


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[Assistant] Yeah, uh, I'm with you. I'm going with the Colts as well. I am. I just look at it. And, uh, now we do think, you know, Pete, dim a little light, a light, a light us in the back.


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[Assistant] Tell me, tell me some injuries, okay, for both sides, because I do think like Will Fuller is an interesting one.


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[Assistant] I know Ty Hilden, we're expecting him to play, right? They are game changing type players where I would just like to know, does think that we have no Marlon Mack in the game for the Indianapolis Colts. Of course, with that offensive line and the way they, uh, blocked last week, and I think they're coming along, uh, you know, hey, uh, Williams, Jonathan Williams, he had a good game too. Um, but you know,


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[Assistant] Clearly Marlon Mack is more talented to me than him, but I think ultimately you said a lot of good things and I think that's where I agree with you. I think first off the Colts defense, even though they don't reinvent the wheel every week, I would like to see there another defense. I just would like to see you be a little more creative on a week to week basis.


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[Assistant] They are sound. They have some real difference makers on the front four. And of course, you know, arguably maybe the best middle linebacker in football and Darius Leonard. He's in that conversation.


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[Assistant] But have a plethora of pass rushers and pass rushers on the edge that I do think can contain a guy like the Sean Watson. And then, you know, I feel like I'm blue in the face with this. I don't like the Texans defense. And I think these are the games that they're in trouble because


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[Assistant] They're going to have to worry. You know, the Texans run defense is still good. It's good. They got it. They got some big people, but they do. This is a different animal when you're playing the blue wall that Jim mercer built. Okay. And, and you're going to have to put a little more eggs into that basket. I don't like the Colts. I mean, the Texans secondary and that's where like T Y help T Y Hilton's health.


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[Assistant] Will be, uh, a big issue for that Texans team. If he's healthy and even close to 100%, uhm, I think they're gonna have their hands. So I'm with you. You said 27-21 Colts?


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[Assistant] Oh, okay. And I'm going three point victory too. I'm going Colts 23 to 20. Uh, either way, we both got the Colts to win this game and of course cover the spread because they are underdogs.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's right. That's exactly right. All right. So we said enough there either way. We're both excited for that game. Uh, should be a good one tonight. All right. Bucks, Falcons, the resurgent Falcons who like are a different team all of a sudden after the bye week. Buccaneers going to Atlanta.


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[Assistant] Falcon's favored by four, and the over-under is at fifty-one and a half. Uh, go ahead, Mike.


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[Assistant] I mean, you made a lot of strong points. I do think the dirt cutter factor is real. Uh, the Falcons, you know, the defense is the big story to me. I just think they're


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[Assistant] They're doing a few different things on that side of the ball, let alone a little healthier and things like that as well that have made them better.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and then, how can you really trust the buc- the Buccaneers? We know their run defense is good. Doesn't really matter though in this game.


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[Assistant] Atlanta's not like trying to run the ball. They just run the ball just to keep you off their back of the passing game.


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[Assistant] I don't even know what to say about it. There's people running wide open on a week to week basis. I question whether if the Buccaneers even watched the Saints game from the week before when the Falcons shut them down because they took nothing from that match up and let all the things that the Falcons took away against the Saints


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[Assistant] The Buccaneer just said, ah, well, it doesn't matter. And then, you know, Kamara and Michael Thomas worked them underneath to death. So I'm with you. I'm going to make it a little closer because I do think this Buccaneer's offense is still dangerous, but I'm going Falcons 30 to 24 with the win. They get their third in a row and that's that. Anything else you want to say about that one?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you all the way. Okay. Broncos, Bills, Broncos get the tough loss to your Minnesota Vikings. We know this Broncos defense is very good.


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[Assistant] Uh, I just want to make sure what, I mean, there are, there are what? A top five defense in football, their number four defensive football, the Bills are the number three defense in football.


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[Assistant] Uhm, in Buffalo, bills are favored by four over under at 38 and a half. So the experts are not expecting a high scoring game, which I wouldn't either. Uhm, what do you think happens?


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[Assistant] Okay, so uhm, I, I think, uh, agreed on a lot of points there. Uh, I, I, I think it's going to be low scoring too. Actually, as I'm sitting here talking about it too, I might have given a few too many points in this game, but I'm going to stick with what I did. Uhm, you know, I don't, the Broncos offense,


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[Assistant] It is a little bit better with Brandon Allen as compared to Joe Flacco. And I think a part of that is because of the bootlegs and


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[Assistant] Uh, the things he does in that way. Corlyn Sutton's coming on to be a superstar in the NFL. Noah Phant, the tight end, is coming on to be a superstar as well. I mean, they're mismatched nightmares. The thing that I don't think it matters in this game, the Bills aren't a team that matches up.


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[Assistant] So I don't know if, like, the jump ball and the one-on-one balls that were so successful for the Broncos last week against the Vikings will necessarily carry over to the Buffalo Bills. It's tough to play up in Buffalo this time of the year. Buffalo's defense is phenomenal. I think Josh Allen and company got it going. Now, you're right. This Broncos defense is real.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I do think that, you know, the aggressive passing game with the Bills downfield, Josh Allen's ability to run the bootlegs a little bit, which we saw Kirk Cousins do to that Broncos defense, uh, in the fourth quarter. You know, they'll be able to make just enough plays. I'm actually picking the Bills to win 23 to 13, but it was more because


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[Assistant] I don't know, I, I envision their defense getting one short field for their offense to where they got one cheap touchdown that way. So like, I really have it like a 16-13 game where I think the Bills will get one short field type of turnover, uh, but I do like the Bills in this one no matter what.


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[Assistant] Uh, and yes, they will go into that Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, which will be very fun.


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[Assistant] Anything else you'd like to add on that before we go to our next one?


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[Assistant] Yeaah, I-I-I hear you there, slugger. I hear you. It's-it's on my radar as well. I have it written down here with a qu-bunch of question marks next to it. Okay. Uhm, the G-men. Bears-the bears. Okay. Giants at bears. Bears favored by six and a half.


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[Assistant] Over, under, at 40 and a half. Of course, Trubisky, that whole thing. I think he's gonna play.


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[Assistant] We don't know for sure. The Giants coming off a bye week. Uhm, we know the Giants defense stinks. Mike, how do you think this one plays out?


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[Assistant] I don't know if you took defenses off the field, uh, when the Bears offense is on and they could score 40 points by themselves. I don't know if they are really capable of doing that. The Giants defense, as you mentioned, it does stink. There's no doubt about that. I do think this is a game the Bears defense.


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[Assistant] Does create a turnover on Daniel Jones. If there's one flaw to Daniel Jones, and I know you wrote this in pro football, talk about a little bit of a turnover problem with Daniel Jones. You know, it's not necessarily that


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[Assistant] He does dumb things. He is too fearless in the pocket. That is my, my assessment of Daniel Jones. He will sit in there and he doesn't care if he's gotten lambasted five times in a row. He sits in there every time and keeps his eyes down the field and he's a better athlete.


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[Assistant] That would be my only thing about him, uh, but I would rather have it this way than the other way. I'd rather have a guy that stands in the pocket and tries to make it instead of a guy who's jittery in the pocket and always runs and leaves it.


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[Assistant] So either way though, I do think that the Bears get enough offense. I think their defense gives them one short field. I'm going Bears 24 to 14 in home in Chicago. Uh, they find a way to win this one. And I just think, yes, their defense will overwhelm the Giants and, um, I don't trust the Giants defense as we know.


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[Assistant] Yeah, no, they're not. Uhm, and that really will not be good, especially if like Matthew Stafford's not playing. I just, that takes away some of the luster of that game. Okay.


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[Assistant] Steelers, bangles. Steelers after helmet, bash, gate. Okay, they're going on the road. They have a long week, uh, where they got to prepare for the worst team in football. Steelers are favored by six and a half on the road, over, under at 38 and a half. Uh, go ahead, Mike.


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[Assistant] Should be enough to make a difference. Poor Ryan Finley. I mean, two out of his first three starts are against the Ravens and the Steelers. Like, I mean, those would be worst nightmares for


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[Assistant] The Steelers offense, I worry about them to where, yeaah, the Bengals, I think, will hang around. I think everything that got lost a little bit, the shuffle with the, you know, helmet smashing by Myles Garrett is the fact that Mason Rudolph absolutely was horrible in that game. I mean, horrible. They're, I mean,


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[Assistant] Horrible. Did I- did I get that out? Do you got me? It was like- Horrible. Horrible. Exactly. You said it.


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[Assistant] Uhm, to where I would have been thinking about throwing Hodges in there, Devlin Hodges this week.


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[Assistant] But, you know, Mason Rodolf, he was their draft pick and they're gonna let him fail 99 times over before they finally can say, oh, we'll move on. You know, I, I don't see it. It ain't gonna happen when you have to reinvent an offense to throw the ball four feet. Not a good thing for the guy that might be your franchise. I think we need to, uh, just move on. Okay. But hey, let me say this. Let me say this.


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[Assistant] No, probably not, but he's certainly an upgrade. That's not even questionable. I mean, I don't even care. That's no doubt about it. I'm sorry. I'm burping up my coffee into the microphone. All right, but I'm picking the Steelers to win 24 to 13.


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[Assistant] Uh, I do think the Bengals kinda hang around because the Steelers offenses I just don't think capable of pulling away and if you're the Bengals, as long as you don't...


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[Assistant] Yeah. That's all I have to say. Well, yeah, hey, I mean, you hotboxing yourself in your own little studio in West Virginia is a sight for everyone to see. And with this day and age, with all the shit that's on the internet, I mean, oh my gosh, a fart? I mean, I could show you everybody a lot worse stuff on the internet right now than a fart. I mean, that's where I'd just like- Please don't. Yeah, okay. I won't.


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[Assistant] Dolphins, Browns, don't get me off task here. This is, I'm very, I'm on a mission this week to whoop your freaking ass, okay? Here we go. Dolphins at Browns. Browns favored by 11 at home over under 44 and a half. Ryan Fitzpatrick on the injury report, right? Didn't practice yesterday.


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[Assistant] He was limited, I believe. Limited in practice. Limited, limited, limited, limited, limited. And, uhm, Miles Garrett- Does it really matter?


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[Assistant] No, it doesn't. Well, it does as far as the kind of shellacking that's given. Like I would give the Dolphins a little bit more of a chance to keep it close if Ryan Fitzpatrick plays. Cause we know he is the guy that has a shamrock up his ass every now and then where you just go, how the hell did that happen? Or how did he pull that off? But go ahead. He has shamrock in his beard.


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[Assistant] Yeah, uhm, you know, it does stink. Miles Garrett's not gonna be there. Larry Ogunjobi's not gonna be there.


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[Assistant] But, you know, ultimately, I'm with you. The Browns are surging. And, you know, their defense can be, has moments of dominance. It does. And even, and even out with Miles Garrett, I mean, that's a tough one. What'd you say, Pete? Speak up.


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[Assistant] Olivier Vernon might be coming back. Okay. He's whispering. He whispers in my ear. Like he's like, you know, he's just gonna tell it, you know, speak up. Don't let a light.


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[Assistant] Okay, I'll bring it down a little bit. Alright. Alright. So either way, uh, I don't have no faith really in the Dolphins offense as far as consistency is concerned. I don't. I think if it's, if it's not Ryan Fitzpatrick, it's even more trouble with Josh Rosen.


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[Assistant] The defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins really have nothing great. They can't stop the run. The Browns can run the ball.


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[Assistant] I'm with you. I think they're surging. Baker Mayfield is taking care of the ball. You know, I like all those aspects and I have a very similar score to you. I'm going Browns 31 to 16.


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[Assistant] Uh, at home, and yeaah, I would be shocked if they don't really kinda control this game from outright.


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[Assistant] Uh, I would say the score is probably even worse if Miles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi are on there, of course, but they're not. That would be the only thing that concerns me a little bit is just they're a little thin in the D-line.


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[Assistant] That would be my biggest concern in this matchup, but I just don't know how the Dolphins defense can match up with all the things the Browns have to offer on the offensive side of the ball. That, to me, is the big thing. The Browns offense has played good against all the good defenses in football, too. They just find ways to mess it up. And lately, they have not been messing it up, which is encouraging, and that's why I go that. Uhm, you wanna do anything else, or are you ready to go to Panther Saints?


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[Assistant] Yeah, yeah, I know. Uh, well, the other crazy thing is the Browns aren't out of it either. They're four and six. No, no. You know?


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[Assistant] Uh, Panther Saints, Panthers are in a funk right now. They stunk last week. Saints won against the Buccaneers, but I think the score was a little bit misleading. When I watched back that film, I wasn't


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[Assistant] As impressed as I thought I would be with the score being 34 to 17. Uhm, but either way, the Saints are at home favored by nine and a half over under at 47. Go ahead, Mike, get after it.


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[Assistant] Yeah, uhm, with you there all the way. I of course like the Saints defense a lot. You know that the way they play, you know, the course Carolina's offense is scary lately. The way Kyle Allen has played at quarterback. He's been careless with the football in some big moments and


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[Assistant] Yes, this defense that he's going to play in New Orleans on Sunday is certainly better than the Falcons and the Green Bay Packers defense he played. Uh, so I look at that, you know, the other side of the ball with the Saints first, the Panthers defense. I will say this much. The, the Saints.


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[Assistant] The Saints lack of downfield passing or lack of scariness pushing the ball down the field in general does scare me a little bit. Carolina does have the type of defense that they can take away the short passing game.


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[Assistant] Because of Luke Keakley and Shaq Thompson and the scheme they play in general, they can be tough on Michael Thomas short over the middle, Alvin Kamara short over the middle. So.


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[Assistant] That's where it scares me a little bit, but either way, yeaah, I'm going with the Saints here all the way. Uh, and I, you have an 11 point win, I got a 10 point win. I'm going Saints 27 to 17. I think the big thing is,


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[Assistant] The Saints getting back to running the football. You can run on the Carolina Panthers.


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[Assistant] The Saintso line, of course, is very good, even without Andres P. And he'll be back in a few weeks, I believe, uh, which will get them right for the playoffs. But, uh, I just think the Saints are too good of an overall football team, and I don't trust Carolina. I don't really trust their defense totally, and I definitely don't trust Kyle Allen right now. Raiders Jets, you ready? I'm ready. Alright, Raiders Jets.


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[Assistant] I think this is kind of a sneaky good game. I mean, we know the Raiders are right there on the cusp of the playoffs. They're favored by three, playing that dreaded one o'clock game Eastern time in New York.


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[Assistant] Uh, the jet's kinda got a little roll going right now. I'll throw this out to you here. We're expecting a lot of rain here Sunday in the New York Tri-State area.


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[Assistant] So this game could be played in, in, you know, a pretty good downfall. I think we're looking at like high thirties, low forties. It says 90% chance of rain. I was just looking at the weather earlier. Uh, and I happened to happen to catch my eyes, but Raiders favored by three over under at 46 and a half. Um, go ahead, Mike, what do you think goes down here?


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[Assistant] So, you bring up some interesting things. This is the first thing I'm gonna say. Greg Williams, the last few times he's had a face, John Gruden, it has not been good.


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[Assistant] Uh, I gotta think Greg Williams is gonna evaluate that. Like last year with the Cleveland Browns, the Raiders went up and down the field on Greg Williams' Cleveland Brown defense. You know, I played for John Gruden. We played Greg Williams that 2005 year where we went to the playoffs. We played him twice that year.


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[Assistant] We had a lot of what they did blitz-wise and the creative blitzes that Greg Williams brings. We had a good plan of attack and Gruden is obsessed with stopping that type of stuff.


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[Assistant] Well, I think the next chess move is Greg Williams, a pretty smart guy. He's going to realize like, especially after last year's game, ooh, he's got a beat on some of the things I'm going to do. I need to change it up a little.


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[Assistant] The Raiders, we know they're a run-first football team. Well guess what?


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[Assistant] The Jets are one of the best run defenses in the game. They are. The Jets can, and a little bit is because of what you said. Jamal Adams is down there at the line of scrimmage. They do have a good amount of big people. And I'm just gonna pull this up just to make sure I'm talking totally correctly here. Oh.


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[Assistant] I'm very correct. The Jets have the number one run defense in football. I knew it was really good, I didn't know it was number one. So.


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[Assistant] That, to me, is advantage jets. You know, again, the Raiders defense is not special by any stretch of the imagination. They're like,


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[Assistant] Okay, it's stopping the run. They're below. Okay, under below average as far as stopping the pass. Uh, and Sam Donovan gates, I think got a little mojo going on the offensive side of the ball.


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[Assistant] You know, who do you think the rain helps or hurts? I don't, I don't really know here. You know, I think the Jets want to rely on throwing the ball a little bit more than the Raiders, so that scares me a little bit.


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[Assistant] But I do think ultimately, the Raiders coming from California, one o'clock Eastern time start, cold, rainy, wet day. It just all seems to line up to a blah performance by the Raiders. And that's why I go Jets. I'm with you there.


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[Assistant] Well, you're my work wife and that's just what happens when you're, you know, when you're a married couple on TV and you're the wife and I'm the husband. I mean, that's what happens every now and then. You know, I just, that's just a damn shame. Good job, work wife. All right, here we go. See you. Sometimes the best move by me is just to shut up.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I know. Well, this day and age, that's a, that could be a scary comment. I hear you. So you might as well just shut up. You're right. I like that. I like that. I might have to say more things like that just to shut you up for now on. Here we go.


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[Assistant] Game of the day at one o'clock. I don't think there's any denying that. I'm pumped for this one. Seahawks off the bye week, off the 49ers win. They are going to Philadelphia again with that one o'clock Eastern time zone start. Eagles favored by one and a half at home over under at 47.5. Mike, what do you think happens in this one?


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[Assistant] You're not gonna catch me, Sims. Damn, I'm really, I thought these were two games that you would go with the other team, but I, you know, I'm with you. Backs against the wall, gut feeling.


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[Assistant] Bye Week by the Seahawks. Jadevion Clowney on the injury report. I don't think Seattle's defensive line can overwhelm


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[Assistant] The Philadelphia Eagle O line, it's a very good offensive line and they're big and powerful, you know, and the Seahawks are not a team that's going to like just like what Bill Belichick did and stuff last week to the Eagles have all this crazy game plan stuff. So.


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[Assistant] You know, I, I don't think the world of this Eagles offense right now, you know, I do, you know, but they will run the ball. They've gotten better at that as of late, certainly. And again, I just don't totally trust the Seahawks secondary. I know I say that a lot when we talk about them, but I just don't.


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[Assistant] And, you know, I think this is, uh, the type of matchup where Carson Wentz will have just enough time to make plays against those big long corners of the Seattle Seahawks who are not very good of getting in and getting out of breaks. They're not great that way because they're so tall and long. And, you know, the other side of the ball,


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[Assistant] The Eagles defense is back. I mean, they're, they're back the last few weeks. I mean, ever since really that Eagles game, I mean, not the Eagles game, the Cowboys game on Sunday night.


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[Assistant] They've gotten healthy and they've played phenomenal. I mean, they played really good football and you know, I know you've heard me say it over the week. Fletcher Cox is back to being a game wrecker.


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[Assistant] You know, they got guys on the edge who are not superstars, but they're all good against the run.


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[Assistant] And, you know, they're good pass rushers. And I think that they can contain Russell Wilson a little bit.


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[Assistant] But the big thing is Schwartz does game plan specific stuff that I like on a week to week basis. And now that he's got Rodney Mc, you know, Rodney McClown and Malcolm Jenkins at safety. And then he's got his three corners and Jalen Mills, Darby and Avante Maddox back. They can do a lot of different stuff there.


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[Assistant] And I'm, I'm with you. I mean, this one was a tough one for me.


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[Assistant] It's hard for me ever to pick against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, but I came away.


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[Assistant] In a similar game, when they played the Browns early this year, the Browns outplayed the Seahawks in Cleveland. And the Browns just screwed it up.


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[Assistant] I don't think the Eagles will screw it up. And that's why I'm going Eagles 24 to 20. Uh, so we're both, uh, right there. Once again, I just can't believe it. I thought these were two games we were going to have some disagreements on, but we're not. Have we disagreed on anything yet?


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[Assistant] I don't think so. No, dammit. Unbelievable.


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[Assistant] Geez. Okay, here we go. Last one of the one o' clocks. Uh, Lions, Redskins, let's not be too long on this one. Who gives a damn? Let's go.


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[Assistant] Through the ball a little bit better last week than he did the week previous to that in Chicago. He can run the football. I'm with you. The Redskins just aren't good. I have no faith in the Redskins offense at all.


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[Assistant] You know, Dwayne Haskins, we know, it's been raw. I've seen a few throws here and there where I went, ooh, that looks good. But I, I can't say that I'm impressed with Dwayne Haskins at all at this point. And to me,


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[Assistant] That would have been the reason I would have stuck with Jay Gruden throughout the year, because I think if you were going to pull the trigger to go with Dwayne Haskins, Jay Gruden would be doing more for Dwayne Haskins right now than what's being done for him in general. Uh, but I don't know. There was this notion out there that Jay Gruden was


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[Assistant] Now, the marquee game- or no, I'm a game in front here, Jaguars Titans, okay?


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[Assistant] Jaguars at Titans, Nick Foles second game. Uh, Titans favored by three and a half after their bye week and their last win against the Kansas City Chiefs over under at 41 and a half. What do you think goes down here? Michael Florio.


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[Assistant] Yeah, uh, agreed with you there. I'm going to Titans as well. Uh, the big reasons, you know, I do think the Titans run game is coming. I think it's coming along. You know, even in their loss two games ago to the Carolina Panthers, I don't think they ran the ball enough, but when they did, there was some plays there to be had.


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[Assistant] I still think, you know, the Jaguars run defense, as we saw last week, it's one of the worst run defenses in football. So I would just would be shocked.


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[Assistant] Okay, if the Tennessee Titans don't really try to pound the rock with Derrick Henry and do that. Also, am I right? Are they getting Corey Davis back this week in the pass game too to go along with it? Uh, I've liked what I've seen from Ryan Tannehill in the pass game. You know, I do like that aspect of it.


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[Assistant] I worry about the Tennessee Titans own pass defense. Nick falls his second game back. They should be a little bit better. You know, Doug Morrone made the comment last week that


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[Assistant] You know, they got a little too pass happy in that Colts game. I do think that's very true. Uh, but Jarrell Casey, I believe he's back in the fold this week too, as far as the defensive line of the Tennessee Titans. So I think this is a close game.


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[Assistant] Uh, but I'm going 20 titans to win 23 to 20 at home. And yes, for them to stay right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture.


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[Assistant] Yep, and we both threaded the needle on that one, but, uh, I know we both don't really look at the spreads before we pick the games anyways.


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[Assistant] So, uh, that's that. Now to the marquee matchup of the day. The Cowboys, the Patriots. Of the afternoon. Of the afternoon, you're right. Yeaah, I mean, what do you like better? The Seahawks-Eagles game or the Cowboys-Patriots? Which one's the better game for you?


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[Assistant] Okay. But the game of the day is 49ers Pack. Yes it is. There's no doubt about that. So, we got Cowboys-Patriots, Cowboys going into New England, uh, Patriots favored by 6.5 points over under 46. Lead us off, Mike.


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[Assistant] Yeah, uhm, I do expect this game to be very close. I think the Cowboys pose a lot of problems for the New England Patriots. Now, I'm not going crazy here. It's New England at home, and I've seen this story before.


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[Assistant] I do think this is the kind of game though that the Cowboys like are gonna look, you know, they're used to going in into a week of game planning and they look at every team on film and go, we're better than them. That's what they do. This is going to be one of the few weeks this year. They're going to look at the game film and go,


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[Assistant] I don't know if we're better than them. And I think that will get them detail oriented and realize that they gotta like be all over their P's and Q's and dot their I's and cross their T's and all those things. Now, again, the Patriots defense.


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[Assistant] They have not played an offense like this all year. I know the Ravens offense was very good and posed problems for them. Dallas poses a different set of problems. Not only can they run the ball, but their pass game is more explosive than the Baltimore Ravens.


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[Assistant] And that's where it gets interesting to me. Bill's going to have to make some decisions on certain down and distances of, ooh, do I want to let them overpower me in the run game?


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[Assistant] Or do I, you know, wanna put my corners in some vulnerable positions against three pretty good receivers down the field in the pass game? That's where it's gonna get very interesting.


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[Assistant] And you said it, the New England offense, hey, it's just, it's just not that good. There's no other way to say it. You know, there, there's nothing to sit there and go, oh, it's great. You know, they do this good or they do that great. The only thing they do good really right now is Tom.


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[Assistant] And them don't make mistakes. They don't give the short field away. Other than Julian Edelman fumbling against the Ravens, I can't really even off the top of my head think of like a bad egregious mistake the Patriots have made all year. So because of that, I am going to Patriots to win.


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[Assistant] I would not be shocked if the Cowboys pulled this off. I really would not. I'm not gonna, but I'm not gonna pick it. I have a similar score. I'm going 21-17.


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[Assistant] I'm not gonna lie. This is on my radar. It's very high on my radar. I got a bunch of stars next to it. Uh, so we'll see how that plays out. But I think at the very least, it's a close game. I just can't see.


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[Assistant] But like, I know, and I get it. I totally get it. The only reason I think I would, I would do it on this one is because I really think the Cowboys can win the game outright. I really do. Then pick them to win. No. Have the guts to pick them to win. I don't have the guts to do it. I could see them winning.


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[Assistant] I've seen New England lose games. I've seen New England do games like this where they're losing 17 to 14 and Brady will drive them down and they'll score a touchdown to barely win it. I would not be shocked if that's what happens. Uhm, so that's that. Don't tell me what the


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[Assistant] Packers on the road. This is awesome game. Sunday Night Football. Watch me and Mike on Football Night in America. 49ers favored by three. Over, under 47 and a half. We've talked about the familiarity with the coaching staff. 49ers got a lot of people banged up. Uhm, go ahead, Mike. Tell me what you got, kid.


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[Assistant] Yeah, well the internet's a very compassionate place, so don't worry, I'm sure they'll- they'll love when you do that. Uhm.


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[Assistant] I-I'm in a win-win situation. It's like, Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers win, yay, that's awesome. If it's Aaron Rodgers win, I get to go, oh, Aaron Rodgers. So I-I mean, I-I feel win-win in this one no matter what. I think that...


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[Assistant] I think Tor at all will help a lot of these players play. They're going to get an extra two shots in the butt before this one and they'll get out there somehow. I have no inside knowledge of that. I'm just, I don't know.


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[Assistant] We'll see. I do think the 49ers are the better football team. I do think this is not a good matchup for the Packers. I don't.


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[Assistant] You know, you'd mentioned it. You know, they played against the Chargers. You know, the 49ers run that same defensive scheme the Chargers run, except their defense is even better.


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[Assistant] So, that scares me a little bit. Now, the injuries, to your point, it is scary for the 49ers. Man, I mean, if they're missing Devo Sanuels and Emmanuel Sanders and, and of course, no Kittle, uh, and no D4, that, that's a game changer. But I think regardless,


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[Assistant] I just don't trust a Packers defense. I just, I can't see them stopping the run game of the 49ers.


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[Assistant] And, uh, because of their lack of run defense, people just run wide open in the pass game too much.


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[Assistant] I mean, I thought the Carolina Panthers outplayed Green Bay, uh, a few weeks ago up in Green Bay, and Kyle Allen just messed it up in a few points, and the Panthers just messed it up in a few points.


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[Assistant] So, I'm going 49ers, 27 to 20. I will not be changing my pick no matter what in Football Night in America. I promised myself I wouldn't do that shit with the 49ers anymore.


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[Assistant] I, I don't know if I'm gonna, you know, maybe gonna pick against them one again, one more time this year. I'm not sure about that, but either way, I am taking 49ers 27 to 20.


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[Assistant] Our first, uh, and yep, I am stuck and that's our first disagreement of the day. So that's, uh, unbelievable that we're at the second to last game of the week here and we're doing that. All right.


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[Assistant] Yeah, good, that's fine. Yeah, just have fun doing that. Uhm, alright. I'm only five games back and after that game I'll only be four games back with a lot of weeks to play, so it's no problemo. Alright, Raven's Rams.


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[Assistant] Raven's going out to LA. Ram's offense sucks. We know that both defenses are really damn good. Ravens are en fuego. Uh, that means on fire in Spanish in case you don't know, Mike. And, uh, Raven's favored by three over under 46 and a half. What goes down in the mind?


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[Assistant] Yeah, uh, I think it'll be a gre- a great game too. Uh, I am expecting that. 30 to 23, I'm- I'm a shock you went that high, uh, points wise. Uhm.


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[Assistant] You know, there's a few things that, that jump out to me. I mean, both defenses are off the charts good for my money. The Ravens are the number two defensive football. Hey, one of the things we didn't mention about the Cowboys Patriots game, it's the number one defense versus the number one offensive football. I'm sorry we didn't say that. We should have said that earlier. Either way.


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[Assistant] This game, it is all about the defenses to me. Uh, the Ravens, yes, they're 14th in football.


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[Assistant] They've been playing better than that as of late, certainly. I think some of those are early season statistics that are a little misleading. They've kind of been dominant. The Rams defense is for real. They can do it all.


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[Assistant] And you've heard me say, you know, on the show today, I think Jalen Rams, Jalen Ramsey's ability to cover Hollywood Brown one on one and then let them do whatever they got to do with the 10 other guys to stop Lamar Jackson and the other creative things they do. Wade Phillips is the type of guy that can do that kind of stuff.


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[Assistant] So I think that's really intriguing. Now the other side of the ball, you know, Robert Woods, right? He's still not back with family, family or personal issues. I don't know if it's family or not, just personal issues.


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[Assistant] Correct. We still have no Brandon Cooks, right? Have we heard a word there? Anybody? Cooks is back. Cooks is back. Okay, that's big. Cooks is back. But, again, the Rams offense is just, it's not very good. I don't know what other way to say it.


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[Assistant] And uhm, you know, to what you're saying, you know, you never would have envisioned this, but it just tells you when you're a really good football team, the league studies you and what you do.


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[Assistant] The Rams didn't stay one step ahead. They kind of went into the Super Bowl and went into the season like, oh, it didn't matter. We're just going to continue to do what we do. Yeah. Well, what you do is shitty right now. That's all I can say about it. So I think this is a defensive struggle.


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[Assistant] And I'm going Ravens 20 to 16. Uh, I think it will be a fun game. I think these are two of the more physical teams in all of football. And I think that's where it's going to be a lot of fun. But I just think the Ravens are riding too high and a little too much of a well-rounded football team for this Los Angeles Rams.


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[Assistant] Yeah, uh, I'm with ya. I'm totally there with ya. Alright, now it's ready. It's ready to go. You ready to make our best bets here?


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[Assistant] I am ready. Do you know this is the first week all season you've picked against the Seahawks? Do you know that?


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[Assistant] I did not know that. That's the only week so far that you haven't picked the Seahawks to win the football game. So that's interesting. We agreed on every pick except for our Packers 49ers game. That's the only one we've disagreed on.


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[Assistant] Which is unbelievable to me. Uh, but let's do it. Best bets. Where are you gonna lead off here?


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[Assistant] I don't know why I'm really not actually, as I'm sitting here talking about it, I'm just going, why am I not picking the Colts for my best bets? I know I might. First off, I'm just gonna go with this. I'm gonna let that stew in my brain just a little bit more here. I'm going to go with the Browns. That's gonna be my first bet.


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[Assistant] Brown's having extra time to get ready for this game coming off a Thursday night game. I think the Brown's D offense really poses a lot of problems for that Dolphins defense. I don't think they can match up with the receivers, the weaponry there. The Dolphins can't stop the run.


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[Assistant] That's not good against the Browns. The Browns are very good at running the football. I think the Browns do have a little bit of their mojo going and even out without Myles Garrett. I just don't care. The Dolphins offense is not good.


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[Assistant] And I still think a lot of Steve Wilkes. I think he's still a very good defensive coordinator. And you know, with Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward on the, on the outside, they've been very good when they're healthy and playing well. So, uh, I am going to go. I'm picking them to win 31 to 16.


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[Assistant] And I almost feel like I was being nice there all together. I could see the Browns like scoring 38, 40 points in this game and winning like 40 to 14, something like that. So I'm going to Browns as my first best bet.


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[Assistant] I'm going back with my over under thing. I'm one and one with my over under cause I'm going back 46 and a half points. I just don't see that happening in this game.


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[Assistant] I do think the Rams have the creativity and the talent and everything else to slow down the Ravens offense. So I think that they keep it low scoring there. And of course I think the Ravens defense will keep the Rams low scoring as well.


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[Assistant] I had the game as being 20 to 16. That's 10 and a half points under the over under. I just got to go with that. I got to. Uh, I do think the Ravens win, but I only buy four, so I'm not going to pick them, uh, as far as the spread's concerned.


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[Assistant] Uh, that is mine. So we have a game we agree on. We're both, you know, we both like the Ravens. You're doing them the cover. I'm going the under. Alright, pick number three. Where are you gonna go, Mikey boy?


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[Assistant] Man, we're really working too much. I'm going with the Cowboys to cover. That's what I'm doing.


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[Assistant] Cause I think the Cowboys can win this game. And I know I picked the Patriots to win by four, but I'm only going off of their reputation and everything like that. I could really see the Patriots being down late in this game and kicking a game winning field goal, doing something like that. Like I said, I do think the Cowboys can beat the Patriots straight up.


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[Assistant] That's too many, too many points. Six and a half points. I just can't see them winning by more than that. I just, I don't see that happening. I really don't. So I think that's crazy. And like I said, I am picking the pages to win by four, but I don't even feel that good about that. I really don't.


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[Assistant] I will not be shocked if it's late in the game and the Patriots are losing.


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[Assistant] Uh, and have to go down and make one big drive and, you know, Tommy Clutch Brady makes it happen for them to kick a field goal, score a touchdown, whatever it is. But there's our best bets.


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[Assistant] You got the Falcons, you got the Baltimore Ravens, and then you're going with the Under and the Patriots Cowboys. I'm going with the points with the Cleveland Browns. I think they'll win by more than 11.


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[Assistant] I'm going with the under in the Ravens-Rams game, and then I am taking Dallas to cover the six and a half points that they are getting against the New England Patriots. Uh, that is that. Mike, good shit. Way to go. Good podcast. You happy? Everything good?


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[Assistant] And hope everybody enjoyed the PFTPM Chris Sims on button collaboration. Not to say our bets are going to be right, but listen to our information. We give a lot of good information.


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[Assistant] Watch out for Kyle Rudolph. I have commissioned him to kick your ass. Okay. On my behalf. Okay, I will. I'll watch out for him. I gotta watch out for him and the refs. As you know, I have a history with the refs. Alright, Mike, you the man. I'll see you Sunday. Peace out, dude. Later.


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[Assistant] Yo yo, what's up? Come on man, subscribe on YouTube to Chris Simms Unbuttoned Podcast. I need you, please hit the subscribe button, please!


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[Assistant] I don't know that I have sworn in this building, to be honest. On air or off air?


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[Assistant] No, that's not true. I have a bad side to me. Fine, say a bad word. No. But I do every once in a while, you know this about me, I'll drink a rock star energy. Oh. A monster energy. Or honestly, or two red bulls.


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[Assistant] It'll happen, maybe I'll get mad enough that the lions will do something stupid.


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[Assistant] No, okay. Okay, good. I didn't know. I thought maybe your kids were watching our podcast. No, I just normally don't. Absolutely not. They're not. You gotta be yourself, right? Right. If it happens organically, it'll happen organically. Okay. And you're not a cusser. It's not in your normal language. Yes. I have a lot of other weird things I do, but cursing is not.


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[Assistant] Let's do it. I mean, we might as well. I call this segment, so you wanna be a Gruden. So you wanna be a Gruden, which can be really good, uh, for one Gruden. Right.


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[Assistant] John Gruden with the Raiders, I do want to talk about that game. Yes, we will. Yeaah. Uh, Jay Gruden is no, his key card no longer works. Yeaah. Redskins, uhm, he, he was fired at, well, 5am is the story that he had called in by Daniel Snyder there.


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[Assistant] Uhm, although, and, it's not unexpected, but I know Chris that you were someone that said it wasn't, you weren't in support of it when we talked about it last week.


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[Assistant] Ownership, Bruce Allen, they were on board. Sure. And so, it got me thinking about it too, and we always say, it's a cliche to say,


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[Assistant] You gotta be on the same page. You gotta have the ownership on the same page as the GM as the head coach, obviously. Yes. But here's some of the fallout of that is because if you're Jay Gruden


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[Assistant] Everyone wants to be right, right? You want to be right. It's just a natural human thing. So if you're Jay Gruden, you want to be right. You want to say, yeah, I don't think we should have taken DeWayne Haskins. Does that mean you're not going to coach him up? No, not necessarily, but you're not as invested.


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[Assistant] In his, you know, you're the coach of the team, but still at the same time, if he goes on and performs really well and it's like, yeah, you were, you were wrong. That guy was worthy of a mid first round pick. Same way the other way with the GM and the ownership. If that guy doesn't perform, it's the head coach's fault. You're making me, you're making me look bad.


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[Assistant] On the scene here, at least for the next little bit. We will see Bill Callahan on the scene for the Washington Redskins. He is now the interim head coach, Bruce Allen, talked about that and this decision of firing Jay Gruden.


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[Assistant] We're going back to 19. It's not even in the last...


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[Assistant] Uh, one, one point real quick on the Patriots who did win this game. Uh, 5-0 now. I do want to say, uh, uh, Sony Michelle. He faced a stacked box, 63% of the time, most in the NFL. Still had a good day.


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[Assistant] That doesn't work anymore. Although, you know, that comes up a lot, is my key gonna work? Wherever I've worked, I've always noticed that


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[Assistant] The team that calls Tottenham Stadium home? Yes. Tottenham? Not very good.


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[Assistant] Raiders might be the best football team that have played in that stadium in a while. They beat the Bears 24-21. This was supposed to be the game where Khalil Mack came back and destroyed the Raiders. Yeaah. The Bears had the third most sacks in the NFL.


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[Assistant] They didn't get one against Derek Carr. Raiders got up to an early lead and held on. How impressed were they?


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[Assistant] Time for the deep dive. Taking a deep dive into the Chiefs and Colts. We'll start with the Chiefs offense, Patrick Mahomes, and it was something that you noted.


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[Assistant] Uh, in your watching a game film of this and how the Colts did it, and he mentioned it too, how the Lions went man to man. Right. You, you, before the game, you didn't think that necessarily the Colts had the personnel? No. To be able to pull it off? No. Uh, they dinged up in the secondary? The Colts have been? And they're not a man to man?


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[Assistant] Kamoko Ture, who got hurt at the end of the game. A lot of people are going to talk about that, but I think he played really well. He's a second year guy out of Rutgers. He's a New Jersey guy!


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[Assistant] Yeah, he's got that kind of talent. How much do you think, uh, the ankle injury limited what Patrick Mahomes can do? Because, I mean, early in the second quarter, I don't know how often, because he's still, he's been gimpy.


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[Assistant] Since, I mean, last week in Detroit, he's had the injury, it might have been re-aggravated later in the game, but he was making some plays that 3rd and 18th in the 2nd quarter, right through that touchdown.


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[Assistant] You know what I think we have to do? We have to put Andy Reid on notice. That's a big thing. That's a big thing. Put him on notice. They need to step up their game.


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[Assistant] Okay, so let's go, let's go Colts, O, Chiefs, D. Yeaah. And let's start with the Colts offense. Yeaah.


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[Assistant] They basically just ran it down the Chief's throat. Pretty much. Marlon Mack was very effective, very effective between the tackles, just specifically between the tackles. Yep. 20 carries, 100 yards. Yep. Another 32 yards on outside rushes. Had the second most rushing yards of any running back in football this week. Right. Behind Christian McKay.


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[Assistant] We expected win probability if you go for it. So they had it and it was fourth and one and if the current chance of winning was 51% and it was like if they went for it and got it, they'd have a 64% chance of winning.


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[Assistant] Yes, right. They went for fourth and one twice early in the fourth quarter, eight up about seven minutes, still ended up with a field goal. Yes. But uhm, game theory-wise, they're like, we're not gonna give the ball back to the Chiefs, we can run it, let's just keep running. Exactly.


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[Assistant] 3 and 2. They might have been 3 and 2 with Andrew Luck. A healthy Andrew Luck, too. Yeah, I mean, I think that's fair to say.


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[Assistant] We got, uh, with a huge win over the Falcons, uh, final score was like 158, uh, 53 to 32. Your headline, you already, you have a song for your headline.


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[Assistant] Awesome. Five touchdowns, five incomplete passes. We have a new, uh, a new, what are these called? Uh, I don't know. Bobblehead. Figurine.


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[Assistant] That was an awesome day by him. He was good. 5 touchdowns, 5 incomplete passes. On deep passes, 4 or 5 for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns so they were throwing the ball down the field with Deshaun. Just 9% of his passes into tight windows, one of the lowest percentages. So that speaks to the wide receivers getting open. Getting open. Getting separation.


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[Assistant] Alright, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen will get both these games. They're both 3-0 right now.


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[Assistant] It's now, even he would admit that. Christian McCaffrey, he's getting a lot of MVP buzz right now with what he's doing. 176 yards rushing, couple touchdowns, 61 more receiving. He was the fastest ball carrier in the NFL in week 5.


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[Assistant] Number two in the NFL was one of his teammates. The other running back? No. Oh.


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[Assistant] Hmm, who? Curtis Samuel. Oh, well they can fly, like those, they get two playmates, two huge playmates.


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[Assistant] Uh, to make it 21-7, so the, the Jacksonville, the two tackles, it was weird, if you can,


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[Assistant] Watch the play, watch the play. The two tackles both went down immediately and tried to shot block on Irvin.


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[Assistant] And, uh, on, on Burns. Yeah. And they missed. They, they just jumped over. Burns jumped over them. They're athletic freaks. And then Mario Addison destroyed Andrew, uh, Norwell. Right. And forced the fumble. It was, it was an impressive play to go back and look at.


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[Assistant] And real quick, even though we can't be quick. We got too much stuff on these games. Raven Steelers, Raven's winning overtime 26-23. They can win even with Lamar having a three interception day.


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[Assistant] Right, uhm, so, but you do know, you know, it kind of sounds like the Packers dominated, you do know that you thought the Cowboys were clearly physically better.


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[Assistant] And they got, they got a little time to figure it out, of course they had that easy schedule to start, but that schedule, you take a look at it, second half of the year, into the playoffs, it's very, very difficult.


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[Assistant] Can I give, uh, props to one offensive lineman for the Packers? Please do. If you agree. Yeah. Number 74, the guard, Elgin Jenkins. Jenkins, the Mississippi State kid. Yeah. Yeah. He's a player, man. Didn't play much, uh, the first two weeks. The first couple weeks, but has played every snap the last three games in.