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[Assistant] You know, that, that's where it does start for me. You know, two cha-ching guys got the game off and they're right, three cha-ching guys.


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[Assistant] Alright, Jalen Smith, who they just gave a new contract to in the summer, he causes the first fumble. You know, the second fumble.


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[Assistant] It's created by Demarcus Lawrence coming around the edge, uh, on Carson Wentz and making that happen. And then Ezekiel Elliott ran angry. Yea, he did. He stopped like this, oh, I'm gonna be like smooth and like levy on bell and try to read the whole before I really hit it. No, just hit it.


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[Assistant] He's, he's so talented and explosive and powerful and he ran with some anger last night and you see what it does. He breaks a lot of tackles and moves


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[Assistant] Early this year. Yes, it is. That's what they paid him for. That's exactly right. Work horse and take advantage of what's there to be had. And that was my complaint about Ezekiel. There were just too many plays where I went, mmm, you know.


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[Assistant] If Lamar Jackson had the ball there, that would have been a 50 yard gain. It shouldn't be a 20 yard gain with Ezekiel Elliott. You know, that was, that was my issue. And I think he capitalized more on that. Amari Cooper being healthy was big. You know, the Cowboys, I'm not getting up there. He's like, they're not afraid to play matchup football.


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[Assistant] You know, as far as, oh, we got one on one, we're just gonna let our guy who we think is better win. Oh, slant go on Rasul Douglas, no problem. Our guy will win that all day, you know.


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[Assistant] That's where he's big, let alone they have some plays that just feature him within schemes too.


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[Assistant] You know, that was a physical ass whooping. Uhm, and I worry about the Eagles. Like, I don't worry about the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys are gonna still be in this playoff conversation. I just think they're too talented, and I think their offense is creative enough this year that they're not gonna, like, fall out of the


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[Assistant] Again, if Dallas played Green Bay again, I don't, that, that was a one in a hundred type game where they got down 31 to three. I don't see that happening ever again. I think they could beat Green Bay on a given day. Seattle, the same thing. So I think they're right there with Seattle, Minnesota, Dallas, as far as four, five, six seeds in the NFC right now. They're right there with them.


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[Assistant] They're banged up, I mean, across the board, you know, whether it's, you know, Fletcher Cox is just getting healthy, you know, there's no Timmy Jernigan out there right now, they lost, uhm,


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[Assistant] Uh, the Malik Jackson early in the year. There's no Deshaun Jackson on the offensive side of the ball. They're missing Ronald Darby. They're missing Avante Maddox at secondary. So they're missing all these guys that are crucial parts of their football team. And I just don't know if they can overcome it.


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[Assistant] You know, the defense is compromised. You know, their defensive line can't dominate quite the way it has the last few years because of the injuries. And I think Fletcher Cox was banged up. And now you got backup corners in.


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[Assistant] And that's an issue, so damn, I can't cause pressure. I'd like the blitz, but damn, I'd have to leave these corners one on one, and that's not good. So what do you do if you're Jim Schwartz? It's a tough dilemma. And on the offensive side of the ball, I still think Doug Peterson gets away from the run game too much, and it's just too much work.


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[Assistant] Can somebody like make a play downfield? Does it always have to be Carson Wentz breaking four tackles and then escaping the pocket and setting up to throw a 30-yard laser as he gets crushed?


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[Assistant] What's wrong with Carson? What's wrong with the other 10 guys in the field? It's not, nothing's wrong with Carson Wentz. Everybody else is what's wrong right now. You know, there's just no help. How many times can we see him?


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[Assistant] Jam a throw into tight coverage of Zach Hertz down the middle or Alshon Jeffery, it's just


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[Assistant] Everything is work for that offense. Sounds like you're describing a 500 team. Yeah, yeah. And that's, that's what they are right now. And I don't know if they're going to get out of that funk until they get totally healthy. I just don't know if there's enough there for them to get over, get over it. And I think they play at Buffalo next week. Yeah, that's scary. And Buffalo is going to be pissed.


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[Assistant] Cause Buffalo won yesterday, but didn't play good. So they're gonna, it's like gonna be a loss they're coming off of, but they won. So that's, that's dangerous.


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[Assistant] Then the very next play, I might have that aspect wrong, but the very next play, he throws an interception. Right. Along the right sideline to, to Chardavius White, and they're up 14-9, and the Bills go on a 98-yard drive, and the game was never the same. They really controlled the game from that point on, and Miami legitimately had the Dolphins on the ropes. Yeaah.


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[Assistant] Within all that, so back to what you said, I'm excited what I saw with Josh Allen. He didn't panic, he didn't go like, oh gosh, we're stale today, I gotta make a play and throw a laser into quintuple coverage, see if I can fit it in there. Now if he can play that way,


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[Assistant] I mean, that's not fair to say either. And again, you also gotta remember it's a game of matchups.


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[Assistant] Okay, and the Dolphins, they have familiarity with the Bills from this standpoint. Brian Flores came from New England. The offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills, Brian Dayball, came from New England. So they understood the offense and how they're going to be attacked. So that was a great advantage for the Miami Dolphins as far as that's concerned.


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[Assistant] Well, it's crazy to say it. Like, I hear you. No. Okay, the Eagles are coming this week. That'll be tough. Then they got the Browns at home. Or no, excuse me, they got the Eagles, then they got the Redskins at home.


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[Assistant] Then they got at the Cleveland Browns, which will be tough, of course. And then it's at the Miami Dolphins. And then it's the Broncos at home.


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[Assistant] And then it's Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. So there's no game there where you just go, ooh, no, they're severely outmatched. I'm not saying that they're definitely gonna win all of those.


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[Assistant] But, but that's the way they play. It doesn't matter. I mean, that's the way they're built. It's a defensive coach who wants to run the ball and he wants his quarterback just to make a few plays every game to get them over the hump. A lot like the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson in the early years. We're gonna run the ball, we're gonna play defense.


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[Assistant] And then Russell on a few third downs will make a few big plays. That's what Buffalo is looking to replicate.


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[Assistant] Yes, and Jacoby Bursette was awesome, but I'm gonna go, good job defense would be my headline.


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[Assistant] Because this game could have got out of hand early. They held the Texans to two field goals early off of two turnovers. The Colts went for it on a fourth and one on their own 45 because Frank Reich's a riverboat gambler and that's what he does. Well they didn't get it.


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[Assistant] They're down 14-7 early, and you know, Watson & Company haven't even really got going yet. Uh, but instead, it was 7-6, and then it was 14-6, and then it was 21-9, and I gotta give a lot of credit. Watson is one of the hardest red zone


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[Assistant] Back up, look at Watson, have everything in front of you, rally and tackle. If Watson does scramble, we can rally to him because we're not, we don't have our backs to him or anything like that because we're not playing man. Uh, that's what it looked like to me in general. And then of course, Jacoby Percet played great.


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[Assistant] Uhm, well, you know their O-line is special. Uhm, I think the thing that jumped out to me yesterday and what I've been waiting to see, who is that other guy other than T.Y. Hilton? The offense can't stall every time T.Y. Hilton can't play. And Pascal, 14, I think it's Zach, I just want to make sure I'm saying that right.


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[Assistant] He showed, you know, hey, I can be that guy to run deep crosses and catch some in cuts and, you know, catch a slant route and get 10 more yards after the catch. I think that was encouraging for me along with Ibron is starting to look like the Iran we saw from last year. Kind of got off to a slow start this year, but he's kind of raring into form.


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[Assistant] All the other good ones do. You might as well start stealing theirs too. So, yes, that.


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[Assistant] He's shown a little bit more patience with the run that I would ever give him credit for. I mean yesterday Chase Edmonds and his ability was great, right? I know. Doing a great job there. Uhm, their defense I think has been surprising to me just the way they can kind of pressure the quarterback and create some havoc the last few weeks and did that again yesterday. And Daniel Jones has shown that he's a rookie.


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[Assistant] You know, there's been too many the last few weeks, especially of...


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[Assistant] Okay, nobody's open. Okay, move in the pocket or run. Just do something. Don't just keep patting the ball, waiting for something.


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[Assistant] But there's a fine line. Now it's like, hey, come on. Yeah, it's going the other way. We've seen, you know, New England get to you in that situation, Arizona yesterday. And the other thing that you see a lot of rookie quarterbacks too, and what happens is you go through training camp and preseason and a lot of the time in those games, the first reads open.


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[Assistant] And now, teams have seen you in the regular season, and they got a few games of film. The first read's not there, and he's still like,


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[Assistant] It really was. There's like three or four of these every year. I mean, last year they avoided them and they went, oh, they go to the playoffs.


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[Assistant] I think disaster at the end of the game. It really was. I don't know what else to say. I feel sorry for them.


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[Assistant] But they're not a good football team. They're just not. I said last week, they're done. It's over. They can't run the ball. They're not big and physical on defense. They got issues there. You know, and Ryan Tannehill, that's the other guy. I want to give him credit.


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[Assistant] Ryan Tannehill is an upgrade from Marcus Mariota. And I don't mean to say that to be mean to Marcus Mariota or anything like that. But Tannehill has just got a little bit more of a, I'm a quarterback who's an athlete instead of Mariota who's, I'm an athlete who plays quarterback. That's how I differentiate them a little bit. And Tannehill yesterday,


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[Assistant] And I'm gonna go back and watch every throw, but every time I looked up, I went, ooh.


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[Assistant] Tight window, great throw, ooh, pretty good coverage, great throw. Plays where I looked at Marcus Mariota and I said


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[Assistant] He wouldn't have thrown that. He would have, let me see if somebody else is open or try to run or you just would have stood in the pocket too long like we talked about Daniel Jones. Ryan Tanell is not afraid to throw it in there and be aggressive. And I think that's what jumped out to me more than anything about the game yesterday.


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[Assistant] Yeah, between that and what I saw even in the second half of the Bronco game, it was the same thing. I mean, he, he like...


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[Assistant] He made a few throws in the second half of the Broncos game where I went, oh, I mean, yeaah, if Mariota made these throws in the first three quarters, I think this game's different right now. And yeaah, I think you gotta give Tannehill a chance. He's proven that he's worthy of getting a sustained period here to show if he can beat the guy there in Tennessee.


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[Assistant] Who was like, hey, I heard you talking about Tannehill today. I think if you broke down Tannehill's numbers, you'd be a little more surprised with what it looks like as far as wins and losses, when he's healthy and when he's out there, how good the win-loss record was, and how good his numbers were to back it up.


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[Assistant] And again, it wasn't like that was a great offense down there with great talent around him. So, uh, there is some positives to his game and I know I was guilty last year of maybe putting a little more blame on him than I should have.


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[Assistant] Since that he sucks. They're the worst team in football. Life after Ramsey. They are the worst team in football. Not like life before. Life after, yeaah. Uh, or, I mean, my other one would be, can we talk about Leonard Fornette and stop talking about Gardner Minshew? I mean, because Leonard Fornette's the best player on that offense.


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[Assistant] It's a freight train. That's good. I mean, it's a freight train. And their defense, with or without Jalen Ramsey, is still top notch.


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[Assistant] And they're going to be a pain in the ass. I mean, we saw that Yannick and Gokwe getting the pick six interception. What was the other one that jumped out to me? Uh, Miles Jack's pick. I mean, Miles Jack is one of the better middle linebackers in football. So, you know, they're, they're more than just Jalen Ramsey down there or Nick Foles and they're hanging in there. They're hanging in the conversation.


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[Assistant] They can't afford too many more losses, but they're, they're, if they can get Nick Foles back.


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[Assistant] Because DJ Shark and Dee Dee Westbrook and those guys, and not to take anything away from Gardner and Minchow, but yeaah, I think Nick Foles is better than him. Like, I would still say, watch out, they can be scary getting down the stretch. If they can keep it to 10 and 6 or 9 and 7, they might be able to squeak in this year in the AFC.


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[Assistant] Yeah, they are. They're the third best team in their division. They are. Mashup song? We have a song here? I don't know. They must...


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[Assistant] Man, I don't think we, I think we're good. No, I think we've hit it all today. I mean, we were gonna do some of the damn okays, but I feel like I damn okayed a bunch of people already. I just didn't say the word damn okay, okay? Alright. Okay.


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[Assistant] Good. Every game, uh, this just in, just in case we have to hit all the games from this week, New England will beat the New York Jets tonight. I repeat, New England will beat the New York Jets. By how many? I'm gonna say like...


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[Assistant] And uh, like a, a tough 10. Like 31-21. 30-20. I was thinking more 31-6. Do you think it needs to be that kind of a blowout? 31-9. Yeaah.


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[Assistant] I don't know, I'm scared, I don't know, I don't know. Only thing that I give them a chance is because Darnold's movement, the Patriots will play man to man, Darnold will take some shots down the field to where maybe he can strike. Like I think it's one of those like,


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[Assistant] It's ten nothing Patriots. It's maybe seventeen three Patriots. It's twenty to three Patriots.


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[Assistant] It's 20-10 Patriots. It's 27-10 Patriots. Sounds like a boring game. It's 27-17. Yeah. And the Jets have the ball at 27-17. If they can score here, something good might happen. Oh, sack fumble, and the Patriots kick to field goal to make it 30-17, and the Jets lost.


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[Assistant] Unlike you, I do a wardrobe change between PFT Live and the joint PFTPM Chris Simms Unbuttoned Megapix podcast that we do every Thursday. Well, no shit, Sherlock. You're at home.


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[Assistant] Right there. Let me stop right there. Go ahead. Let me stop right there. I will make a promise to you. If Kirk Cousins wins Super Bowl MVP, I will get a Kirk Cousins tattoo on my arm. Guaranteed.


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[Assistant] That's what I'll do. If he's Super Bowl MVP, I'll get Kirk Cousins tattooed left arm above anything that would ever be seen by any human beings.


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[Assistant] Unbelievable 16 and a half points spread. And you know, I give you a hard time for trying to thread the needle. I'm going to try to thread the needle. Now this is a pretty big needle at 16 and a half points. I think the Vikings win the game. I don't think they cover the spread. And I have a very vivid recollection of last year, week three, when they were 17 point favorites over the Bills and lost to Josh Allen straight up.


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[Assistant] I think it's Vikings 30, Washington 17. I think it'll be close for a while. I think the Vikings will pull away late or maybe they'll be up 20. There'll be a garbage time touchdown, whatever the case may be. I think the Vikings do not cover, but I think they win it straight up.


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[Assistant] This is not a team where the Vikings aren't going to be able to run the football. As long as the Vikings can run the football, they're going to be able to unlock play action. They're going to run into trouble the next time they face a defense that clamps down Dalvin Cook because I don't think Kirk Cousins, even the new and improved Kirk Cousins,


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[Assistant] Can get it done if he doesn't have the benefit of that play action, that bootleg, that thing that works only when Dalvin Cook is gashing the front seven and getting through to the second and third level.


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[Assistant] Do we really need to know the status of Matt Ryan to know that this is going to be a blowout? I don't care who plays. It could be Matt Ryan. It could be Matt Schaub. It could be...


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[Assistant] This shit out of the Falcons. The only question becomes whether or not Arthur Blank is finally going to look around that stadium that he paid for and realize the reason no one is there is because his team stinks. Those $2 hot dogs are not making up for the fact that the team is awful. They're going into the bye week.


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[Assistant] Blank seems to be willing to stick with Dan Quinn. Well, it's gonna be more days like Sunday.


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[Assistant] When the Seahawks roll into town. And Chris, I was talking earlier today on PFT live during the radio hour. The Falcons host the Saints on Thanksgiving night. Can you imagine how sparse the crowd is going to be? Who's going to drag their butts out of their front living rooms on


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[Assistant] Late afternoon Thanksgiving, to go watch the Falcons get stomped on Thanksgiving night by the Saints. It's gonna be an embarrassingly small crowd, I think.


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[Assistant] It's gonna be a small crowd on Sunday. The Seahawks are gonna roll over them. I've got 34 to 16. It could be worse than that because the Seahawks are trying to get right after losing to the Ravens at home. They were embarrassed. They're gonna come into this thing focused and ready and the Falcons I think are falling apart. We've seen it all year. They're not good enough. I think the Seahawks are gonna destroy them.


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[Assistant] You know, I drew a blank earlier and I was trying to come up with a third quarterback named Matt, so I went Matthew McConaughey. Hell, what about Matt Simms? It's still gonna be a blot. You put any quarterback named Matt out there. Matt Barkley, Matt Castle, Matt Flynn, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt McGloin, Matt Moore.


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[Assistant] Matt Stafford, any of them. Well, maybe Matt Stafford would make a difference. No, not even him. This Falcons team is


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[Assistant] I believe that this weekend in Buffalo, the Philadelphia Eagles will relish their season with a victory over the Buffalo Bills. I mean, salvage their season. They will relish the fact that they've salvaged their season.


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[Assistant] We talked about this yesterday in PFTOT. The Eagles' schedule down the stretch is not easy, and they've got some tough games coming up. They better win while they can, and they are gonna be desperate for this game after getting splattered by the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. And you said it too, as it relates to the Bills.


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[Assistant] They should have lost to the Dolphins. And when you look at their wins, they really don't have that signature impressive, we kick the crap out of somebody type of a victory. The Bills have won five out of six games. That's great.


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[Assistant] They haven't really won a game in a way that makes me say wow. And there's their schedule.


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[Assistant] Yeah, they dicked around with the Cincinnati Bengals. They, they could have lost to the Titans. They won that game and then, uh, they, they beat the Dolphins in a game that they should have lost. So I, I look, I think they're ripe to be beaten.


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[Assistant] And to really kind of settle back to a record that more accurately reflects where they currently are. I think the Eagles win the game 24 to 20. I think that that desperation will be a factor. I think Doug Peterson learned a valuable lesson last week and I feel like the Eagles play well when they truly are backed against the wall and they are this weekend at Buffalo.


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[Assistant] Yeah, look, neither of these teams has lived up to expectations. Last year, they were a combined 24 and 8.


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[Assistant] Each had a record of 12 and 4. This year, there are combined 5 and 8 through


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[Assistant] Six weeks of the season. We would have called it a potential Super Bowl preview at some point during the off season, looking ahead to week eight.


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[Assistant] They're not gonna move the ball against anyone. And I think the loser of this game is gonna flat out collapse.


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[Assistant] I just don't know that they know what they want to do. And you've said this from the first game of the season. Where's the offensive identity for the Chicago Bears? But I agree with you. Bears win. I got 23-17. Some sort of a fluke thing happens at the end. Maybe the Chargers on the doorstep of the end zone can't get in like we saw in Tennessee.


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[Assistant] I like your 1917 because that suggests the Chargers will be lining up for a game winning field goal and the ball's going to get snapped off of the holder's helmet and go straight up in the air and that's going to be the end of it. But the Chargers keep finding ways to lose. The Bears need to find a way to win or they're going to end up in last place in the NFC North after winning the division last year.


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[Assistant] Then after the bye, the loss to the Green Bay Packers on a Monday night that they should have won. The game against the Vikings, they hung tough even after they came out of that Monday night with the short week and all of the adversity of having your


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[Assistant] Potential victory fall apart right in front of your face and look, but for that Kirk Cousins throw.


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[Assistant] That put the Vikings in position to go up 42 to 30. I think the Lions still had a chance to pull that one out. So I like the Lions in this one. A get back on the right track type of a game. And the Giants are in the process of falling apart. And I think it's just a matter of time before people start suggesting that Pat Shermer needs to go.


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[Assistant] He's been insulated from a lot of the criticism because it was Eli Manning who was the focal point and then it's Dave Gettleman is the focal point and then John Marra a little bit gets some of the criticism and it's gonna come back to Roost on Pat Shermer and this is the kind of game


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[Assistant] Is gonna show that there's a gap between the Giants and the teams in the NFC that fall into the good to above average category. And I think the Lions are there even though their record doesn't reflect it. 28-17, it could get worse than that, but I like 28-17 Detroit over the Giants.


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[Assistant] The quandary digs trade to the extent that that creates issues in the locker room. That's a challenge for Matt Patricia to get guys to turn the page, not be salty, not be pissed, not get themselves twisted up in knots about the fact that digs got traded. I mean, my understanding is this was as simple as


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[Assistant] Coming to the conclusion that his play has regressed for no good reason and they moved on from digs, but they need to be upfront, they need to be direct and they need to get anybody who may be pissed off about this trade on the same page quickly or they could be ripe for an upset in this one. That's my one area of hesitation.


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[Assistant] I thought about taking the Broncos just because the Colts are developing this Titans vibe where they-


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[Assistant] They beat the teams they're supposed to beat and then they'll lay an egg against a team like the Raiders. Remember, we were certain a few weeks ago. That was one of those, cause it's hard to pick these games. It is. And you have that small category every week where


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[Assistant] Alright, I know this one's right. The ones I worry about are the ones that fall into that category of it could go either way. And when one of those teams loses that you thought was just going to win you, it's like, what the hell's wrong with the Colts? And I still have that


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[Assistant] Is this a game where the Colts could trip and fall? Is Frank Reich


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[Assistant] And look, for any praise we're gonna heap on him, we have to ask that question. Is Frank Wright capable of keeping these guys focused in the games they're supposed to win? I think he will. I think he's learned from his mistakes. I think they'll win 27-13. I have no faith in the Broncos offense, and the defense isn't nearly good enough at this point to overcome


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[Assistant] Where the offense is. You also have that possibility of a fire sale that's looming. Maybe you got some guys that are going to make some business decisions because maybe they're going to get over the wall like Emmanuel Sanders did. And I think that's going to be a factor in this game. And they lose this game in fall of two and six and it is time.


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[Assistant] To listen to any offer for any player, including Vaughn Miller. And you can't say Vaughn Miller is untouchable because what if somebody offers you two first round picks? You take them and you run if you're the Broncos because by the time they're worth the crap again, Vaughn Miller is going to be 33 or 34 years old.


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[Assistant] This is the kind of game where I think it does potentially fall apart for the Broncos, coupled with the fact that the Colts have lost a couple of games they should have won. They're gonna go dagger early on the Broncos, 27 to 13, and it could be worse than that.


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[Assistant] Yeah, yeah, here's what I want to say. If the Eagles beat the Bills and get to four and four on the year and the Broncos lose,


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[Assistant] The Eagles reportedly offered a first round pick and a second round pick for Jalen Ramsey.


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[Assistant] I would start with that same package for Von Miller and see what John Elway does. And I'd be willing to go to two first round picks. Could you imagine what a difference Von Miller would make for the Eagles as they try to pull themselves back into this? So, just something to think about. Because if you've already, if you've already considered making that kind of move.


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[Assistant] That's right. So two ones, and I'd give up two ones for Von Miller, especially if I think Von Miller's presence is going to cause me to be drafting far later in round one this year and next year than I otherwise would be. I just think it's something to keep an eye on. And that's why the trade deadline,


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[Assistant] It comes to Tuesday after week eight. The results of that eighth week go a long way toward determining who's selling and who's really motivated to buy.


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[Assistant] And if you're the Eagles and you lose this game, okay, maybe not. If you win, you get that little, you get that little rejuvenation, right? And if the Broncos lose, all right, it's time to just take whatever we can get and move on. So, so that's one that I'd be intrigued by if it pans out that way. And I think the Eagles should be, should be at least willing to consider it if they do beat the Bills on Sunday.


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[Assistant] The Jaguars have a good defense. And I don't know that they just take exactly what the Patriots did and do it again. I just think that they know they can confuse Sam Darnold and you spend the week trying to come up with a way to confuse him again.


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[Assistant] He played really well a couple of weeks ago, but I think it's gonna take more than a week to recover from what happened to him on Monday night. I think the Jaguars...


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[Assistant] We haven't been as excited about him. We didn't pay any attention to the Jaguars last week because they were playing the Bengals. Who cares when anyone plays the Bengals? But I like the Jaguars in this one, 24 to 10. They pull even to four and four and they're in the mix for the AFC South.


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[Assistant] If the Texans stumble, if the Colts stumble, the Jaguars could be there and Nick Foles is back at practice this week. Who knows what happens if he's back on the field. And we both have the Jaguars from before the season winning the division. So I think we're both kind of.


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[Assistant] Rooting to be right. It's not necessarily rooting for the Jaguars. We like to be right. We're rooting to be right. And I think the right call here is maybe the Jaguars pull their way back in. For Sunday, they have enough to beat the Jets 24-10 and they move to 4-4.


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[Assistant] The more I think about this one, yeaah, I know, I'm not gonna change my pick. I've been thinking about it, cause I could see, you know that Jets team from two weeks ago beat the Cowboys. They're working in there somewhere. They have Le'Veon Bell, but I'm gonna stick with my pick. My hands off the checker.


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[Assistant] Now that, you know, that's not a word that would raise any eyebrows here, but apparently that's a vulgar term in London. So we may have to bleep wankers for the UK version of the podcast. So let me go ahead and say wankers again. The Bengals are a bunch of wankers. I like the Rams will destroy the Bengals yet again. And you know what, Chris? There's never been.


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[Assistant] Wankers are going to lose in ugly fashion to the L.A. Rams. I've got the final score at 34 to 13.


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[Assistant] Yes I do, that's what the listeners want, go ahead. Definition of wanker, British slang usually vulgar, a person who masturbates.


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[Assistant] That's from Miriam Webster. That's not UrbanDictionary.com. That's Miriam Webster. Yes.


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[Assistant] I just hope by Monday you forget that phrase because I have a feeling you're gonna utter it on PFT Live. Just don't. Just, just...


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[Assistant] Erase it from your brain, forget we ever said it, and let's move on. There's that much that we shouldn't spend any more time on, uh, the Rams versus the Wankers.


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[Assistant] I, regardless of whether it's Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, you, it doesn't matter, cause Sean Payton's the man, he's the master of taking that defense, picking it apart, figuring out where the holes are in the system, where the tendencies are, he's gonna have the right plays ready to go. I think Drew Brees will play, even if he doesn't, Saints 31,


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[Assistant] Cardinals 13. Yes, the Cardinals won three in a row, and that's impressive.


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[Assistant] But they've yet to play a team like the Saints. Kyle Murray has yet to venture into a building like the Superdome for a Saints game. That's what I was gonna say, right. It's gonna be a long day. It's gonna be a long day. To the extent that Kyle Murray hasn't had his welcome to the NFL moment, it's coming on Sunday. And we're both Kyle Murray fans, and I love the fact


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[Assistant] That he has responded to adversity. 0-3-1 start with three straight wins, but not on Sunday. Not in the Superdome. Saints win big.


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[Assistant] Well, you know, it's funny. 2015, when both Winston and Mariota were rookies, their first game ever played was against each other. And here we are, Mariota's been benched. Winston...


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[Assistant] There's been some rumblings of some dysfunction in Tampa, and I think that Bruce Arians is starting to realize that there's really only so much you can do to fix Jameis Winston. You know, I said this earlier today, I think I was on radio in Chicago.


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[Assistant] Back in the 70s, you could give Terry Bradshaw five years to get to his ceiling because you didn't have the same off-season reps. You didn't have the same opportunities to accelerate a guy's overall development. By year five today, you know who the guy is. And he's as good as he's ever gonna be. And that's where Jameis Winston is. Now the question is, can they coax enough out of him


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[Assistant] A week removed from that disaster in Carolina. Does he still care enough, deep down? Or is he deciding, you know what, this just is it. This is done. It's just, you know, I'm checked out. I mean, he's gonna get to a point where he's checked out.


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[Assistant] And I could see with some adversity early on Sunday, maybe he does finally snap and he goes back to being that guy that we've seen in bad spots.


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[Assistant] This one was tough for me because I could see it go the other way too. It all comes down to how Winston plays. But I think the Titans at home, and they have shown they can win when they're favored.


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[Assistant] They won last week when they were favored over the Chargers. I think the Titans win 24 to 20. They get to four and four. And that AFC South becomes a cluster. And, uh, I don't feel, this is the one, of all the games this week, this is the one I feel the worst about.


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[Assistant] But I'm gonna stick with the Titans just because it's too easy to envision bad James Winston making an appearance at some point on Sunday for the Buccaneers.


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[Assistant] Yeah, we both have them covering because that spreads only two and a half points and, uh, uuuh. Alright, let's move on before I change my mind. Yeah.


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[Assistant] Don't worry about it. Let's do it real quick. PFTPM podcast. Check it out at least three times a week. I do Tuesdays with MDS. I do Fridays answer all your questions. Thursdays I'm stuck with you. You stupid wanker. Alright, let's move on.


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[Assistant] I always hate it when we see a team schedule for the coming year and people get caught up in strength of schedule based upon the opponents records from the prior year. That doesn't mean anything. I don't care about prior year, but I do care about strength of schedule.


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[Assistant] From the current year as the year unfolds. And the 49ers strength of schedule is about to get more difficult. Now, doesn't mean they're gonna lose this week, but the losses are coming. This team isn't gonna go 16-0.


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[Assistant] Now watch, they're gonna go 16-0. But this Panthers game is the first test. They got the Seahawks looming, they got the Packers, they got the Ravens, they got the Saints for crying out loud, they got the Rams again, and they got a second game against the Seahawks. There's some easy wins there, they should sweep the Cardinals, they should beat the Falcons. Oh God. At least that game's not in Atlanta. So, uh, look.


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[Assistant] 24-17 is the score I've kind of pulled out of my rear end for this one. I think the 49ers defense is good enough to slow down Christian McCaffrey. Kyle Allen is due to lose. He's 4-0 this year, actually 5-0 if you go back to last year.


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[Assistant] And, uh, yeah, they've had two weeks to get ready for it, but the 49ers are just operating on a higher level this year. The 49ers get one more win.


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[Assistant] Uh, and then they have the Cardinals on the short week, and then things start to get very interesting. But for now, 49ers move to 7-0.


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[Assistant] 24-17 victory over the Panthers. I don't feel great about it, but I feel good enough to say 49ers continue to win. I also feel bad because there were several weeks there where I didn't believe in the 49ers, picked the Browns to beat them, picked the Rams to beat them.


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[Assistant] Now Chris, if the 49ers lose this game to the Panthers and the Panthers move to 5-2, do we not instantly feel very differently about the Panthers and take them extremely seriously the rest of the way?


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[Assistant] How many of these games can John Gruden endure where he has to look across and see Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brissette. He's got to see Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford. He's got to see Mahomes again. Uh, you know, a lot of great quarterbacks out there.


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[Assistant] John Gruden looks at and says, where's mine? When is my guy going to emerge? And I think he knows enough after what Derek Carr did last week, lightning striking twice, the stupid mistake that he repeated.


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[Assistant] From 2017, I think Carr's on the outs, and I think we may see a long day from Derek Carr. I think he's got a sense that, that, uh, even though it's Derek Carr going to the town where his brother was the first overall pick and, and, uh, all, yeaah, no, it doesn't matter. I think that,


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[Assistant] The Texans, especially after losing to the Colts, they're gonna focus, they're gonna get the win, they're gonna go to five and three.


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[Assistant] And Deshaun Watson is going to bedevil the Raiders defense and John Gruden is just going to be yelling and shouting the F word over and over again and doing various forms of his scowl.


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[Assistant] Every emotion possible he can express through a scowl and it's going to be the bad emotions that we see on Sunday because I think the Texans will win this game. I don't think it's going to be a blowout though.


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[Assistant] I may be threading the needle here. I haven't checked the spread. I got the Texans winning 27-23. That's threading the needle. Oh boy, I'm a little nervous about that.


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[Assistant] This is a double needle thread. We don't do that very often. You're usually the one who takes these chances, but I don't know. Maybe it works. It makes me nervous. Because you're rooting for one team to win, but not by very many points. I don't like that feeling. I don't like that turmoil.


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[Assistant] The Browns just aren't good. They're not good. And they're not nearly as good as we thought they were gonna be. I don't know that Freddie Kitchens is the answer. He's still learning. He told us that a few weeks ago. Well, pay close attention to what happens


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[Assistant] In this game coming up, Freddie, this is going to be your master class on what it takes to be a great coach because I think the Patriots will dismantle the Browns systematically the way they dismantled the Jets on Monday night.


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[Assistant] Bill Belichick is awesome against first and second year quarterbacks. This is Baker Mayfield's first crack at the Patriots and he's going to find out the hard way.


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[Assistant] What it's like to deal with New England. 35 to 16 shellacking. It could be worse than that. I'm being charitable giving the Browns 16 points in this one. I think it will be ugly. I think the Patriots move to 8-0. The Browns are going to be 2-5 and their margin for error is going to be


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[Assistant] Dangerously thin the rest of the way. They're not quite at have to run the table territory and their schedule does soften


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[Assistant] After week 10 or so, but it's, it's going to be very hard for them to get to the playoffs this year because number one, they're going to lose and number two, they're going to be picking up the pieces and they're going to, they're going to realize we got a long way to go to be the team that we thought we were going to be.


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[Assistant] Yeah, you're threading the needle on that one. I would not, listen, I think that Bill Belichick is going, and remember this, remember this.


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[Assistant] Even, even whispered in connection with Bill Belichick, he's got a lot of years, he's got a lot of wins, and so far he's two and four, and I think he's going to be two and five, and I disagree with you, I think the Patriots


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[Assistant] Well I'd like to know who's going to play quarterback. We're not going to know that probably until it's time to, even if Patrick Mahomes is active, that doesn't mean they're going to trot him out there when it's time to actually play the game. It could be that this is all part of a broader ruse aimed at messing with the Packers and kind of messing with the rest of us.


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[Assistant] You know what, it's not bad for ratings if there's some drama as to who actually is gonna play quarterback, but I'm leaning Patriots either way.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna reserve the right to change my mind on Sunday night.


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[Assistant] I'm leaning Saints, I'm leaning Saints, alright, since the Saints are playing three other games, they'll have a little something left so they can play Sunday night. Packers is where I'm leaning in this one, 34-27, but I would like to have more information about whether or not Mahomes is going to play, but I just think, given where Aaron Rodgers is right now, I don't think it matters.


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[Assistant] The pa-hang on, the Packers are favored by three and a half.


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[Assistant] How much is that going to change if Mahomes plays? It may not matter, right? They haven't taken it off the board yet. No. But, uh, it is a strange kind of a situation, but I'm, I'm, I still could change to the Chiefs come Sunday night when we have to lock in our picks for Football Night in America, but for now I'm sticking with the Packers.


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[Assistant] I got a 31 to 10. I mean, the Steelers, both of their wins have come in prime time. They find a different level of performance when the lights are on. The Dolphins just flat out suck and it's going to continue. And Monday night's game is probably going to be the low water mark for


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[Assistant] Uh, primetime football in 2019. So that's all I have to say about that. When Steelers win big, Dolphins continue to stink. And the only good thing about this Steelers Dolphins Monday night game is it most likely won't consist of that monsoon with the, remember the punt that didn't bounce from 2007? We won't have that, but maybe that would be more entertaining than what we're going to see on Monday night.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna start with the L.A. Rams given 13 to the Cincinnati Bengals. I still think that the lines do not reflect


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[Assistant] The talent difference between these great teams and the crap teams. And for whatever reason, there's this mindset out there that once the line is north of 10, I think there are betters that think it's some kind of a trap.


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[Assistant] So they bet the underdog and they keep the line from going higher than it should be. I think this line should be more than 13. I think the Rams are going to win easily. This is a no-brainer to me. The Rams at least by 17 or 20 in this one. So my first one is the Rams.


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[Assistant] Alright, I uh, I'm gonna stick with a team that I have been predicting in recent weeks on a consistent basis to cover. The New England Patriots giving 13.


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[Assistant] And the Patriots are operating on a short week. The Patriots are the Patriots. There is a huge gap between them and everyone else, particularly the Browns. Odell Beckham Jr. going on and on on Wednesday about the Patriots this and the Patriots that and how he wanted to play for the Patriots. I think he may decide to just stay.


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[Assistant] In the locker room, just hide under a bench and hope that the Browns leave without him and he can stay in New England and be with the best organization in all of sports. And we're going to see it loud and clear. And I think a lot, you know, we've heard talk about how, remember the Ravens, that chatter where they're sick of hearing about the Browns and then the Browns went in and beat them.


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[Assistant] I think a lot of Patriots players are probably sick of hearing about the Browns and how the Browns think they can just show up and all of a sudden be an elite team. They're never going to break ranks. They're never going to open their mouths and they're just going to go about their business of kicking the crap out of the Browns. So I like the Patriots. Given 13, I think they're going to win by at least 20.


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[Assistant] Number three for me, I am going to stick with a team that I have believed in a few times this year when it comes to best bets. I don't imagine the Seattle Seahawks having two clunkers in a row. I think Russell Wilson is gonna be salty, he's gonna be pissed, and he's playing against an overmatched Falcons team.


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[Assistant] I think that the Seahawks who are only giving five and a half points will go into Atlanta and destroy


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[Assistant] The Falcons. Last week, remember how we were stunned? The Rams were only three point favorites and what did they do? They destroyed the Falcons. This week, it's only five and a half. What are people thinking? And it may be Matt Schaub for crying out loud at quarterback for the Falcons.


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[Assistant] Is what cancelled that out. There won't be a monsoon in Atlanta. Number one, it's a dome. Uh, so we're fine there. Seahawks win big, easily cover the five and a half, and they would easily cover the five and a half even if it somehow was a monsoon inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, not Superdome, the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.


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[Assistant] Shit, get you outta here! Yeah! Oh wow, he's got props! He's got props! Buh-bye! Buh-bye! Carrot Top's got props! Yeah! Motherfucker! You lost! Wooo! Eat that crap! For...


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[Assistant] Oh baby, you know what time it is, it's Simms and Florio, PFTPM and Chris Simms unbuttoned collaboration, joint collaboration picks podcast, okay? Uhm, how you doing dude? Everything good? You changed. Must be nice to be home.


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[Assistant] Oh, you're right, cause joints will be aplentyful tonight. I can tell you that on a Thursday night. Oh, that's right.


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[Assistant] Yeah, well, you know, hey, some people like to drink a beer on their night off. We know what I like to do. I'm not ashamed of it. So that's just the way it is. All right. We got week 14 picks coming up.


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[Assistant] Michael, you had a good week last week. I mean, really, you really did. I'm not even trying to be a jerk here. 10 and 6 straight up. 11 and 5 against the spread. Very impressive there. Uhm, best bets, you won the Green Bay game. You were only 1 and 2 in your best bets. You lost Carolina and the New Orleans-Atlanta over. Okay?


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[Assistant] We did. Yes, I know. And I don't even want to really count that. So you, because like I don't think either one of us would have picked any of those bets as our bets either way. So if we got to do our three best bets, you won Green Bay, you lost Carolina, and then you lost that Rams Arizona over. Yes, there.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I on the other hand went 7-9 straight up, that's not good. 7-8-1 against the spread, not good.


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[Assistant] I don't think the Bears covered. The Bears did not cover. I don't think I won.


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[Assistant] All right. I lost Chicago in the Thanksgiving Day bet. Yes, I did. So we both lost our Thanksgiving Day bet, but I won Green Bay and the 49ers and I, like you, lost the Carolina Panthers. So I gained a game on you on best bets for the year. You have a one game lead on me with best bets straight up.


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[Assistant] Okay, alright, so I went three in one of my best bets last week. I am more genius than I thought.


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[Assistant] Uh, and you sure I'm only one game back of him on best bets now, Pete, dim a little lettuce, cause I don't trust anything you say now. All right. All right. All right. You are beating me in straight up and that's really pissing me off. And you're up by seven games and you're up a game of best bets. And those are the two that I want to win and I'm losing to you and wanted to say


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[Assistant] Uh, it's, it is, it's amazing because, uh, I am not good against the spread. I'm 16 games under 500, so.


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[Assistant] Uhm, but, I'm still gonna win more people money at the end of the year, cause my best bets are going to prevail. Uhm, as we saw last week, I mean, I was three and one, and you were two and two. It's pretty bad by you. Alright, here we go.


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[Assistant] Cowboys, Bears, Thursday Night Football. Okay, teams that are at 500 that seem somewhat dysfunctional that are still alive in the playoffs. Uh, go ahead, Florio, what do you think goes down?


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's right. I didn't say this. The Cowboys are favored by three. The over-under is at 43. I'm going Cowboys 20, Bears 16, uhm,


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[Assistant] I'm with you in the fact that I just don't know. I don't trust the Bears offense enough to move the ball consistently on the Cowboys defense.


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[Assistant] Vice versa, I do think the Cowboys offense will struggle moving the ball against the Bears defense. It's still one of the best defenses in football. Uh, I do see it that way. Uh, I, you know, and I just think the Cowboys will have enough offense to pull this off. I don't think, I think this will be a close game.


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[Assistant] I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears had the ball late in the game for one drive to win it.


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[Assistant] Uhm, like I said, I'm picking a 20 to 16. I do think, as you heard me say in the show today, if they got a Khalil, Max, StripSack, Fumble,


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[Assistant] You know why the Cowboys are back on their own 20 yard line or something like that?


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[Assistant] I think one play by that Bears defense could win them the game. They need to give their offense the short field once in this kind of game.


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[Assistant] And then maybe they could win the game 23 to 16. I know I'm not picking this as my best bet. I don't trust either one of these teams. So I'm just saying that flat out right now, but we both see the Cowboys winning and I agree with you. I do think the Cowboys are the better team. And if they're going to get on a roll, they better get on it soon here. All right, let's go to 1 PM.


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[Assistant] Uh, do you think the Panthers are motivated by Ron Rivera and coming together that way, or does it lead to a week of bleh and not showing up on Sunday?


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[Assistant] I'm with you there. You know, the Panthers run defense. That's so, that's so bad. I mean, and I guess, you know, listen, their past defense has been pretty good this year, but when you have to worry about your run defense again against a team like the Falcons who can't necessarily run the ball all that well themselves, but if they can run it just enough, that's when they become extra dangerous in the past game.


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[Assistant] And hey, I think Kyle Allen and company will make his plays on the offensive side of the ball too, because I think North Turner is a really good offensive mind and he's got a good plan of attack and all those things. But ultimately I'm going with the Falcons at home.


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[Assistant] 28-24, I think they win this one, and that's enough about that non-playoff matchup. Alright. Ravens, Bills.


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[Assistant] I'm really excited about this game. I am. You know me, I'm on the Bills bandwagon, I'm on the Josh Allen and Sean McDermott bandwagon. I love the Ravens too, don't get me wrong. Ravens Fire, uh, uh, favored by five and a half.


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[Assistant] Uhm, going to Buffalo. And the over-under is 43. Now let me just tell you this. The Bills are 8-3-1 against the spread this season. That is the best in the NFL. Uh, Mike, lead us off. How do you think this goes down?


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[Assistant] I mean, I think this is gonna be a fun game. It's always tough to play up in Buffalo. The Bills defense is real.


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[Assistant] The one thing I worry about with the Bills a little bit, and their defense being the number three defense in football, obviously is phenomenal, but when they've shown a little issue here and there, it's been against teams who are big and can just run the ball right at them.


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[Assistant] Uh, and that's what I worry about a little. That's why I make fun of Dallas last week, because I don't think they took advantage of, of doing that to, to the Buffalo Bills. But, uh, you know, I look at that and just go, man, I just think Baltimore is too big up front to stop them.


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[Assistant] And, uh, you know, I think that the Bills are athletic enough to maybe slow down the Lamar Jackson run attack because McDermott's such a good coach. And you know, on the show today, PFT, I mentioned Tremaine Edmonds and Matt Milano, one of the better linebacker duos in all of football. They can run.


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[Assistant] So, you know, if they, if they get out on the edge, they're the type of linebackers that can run down Lamar Jackson. I don't think Baltimore is going to be able to make a number of huge plays in this football game. On the other side of the ball, of course, the Ravens defense is awesome too. And the Bill's offense is good, but not great. I mean, Cole Beasley, John Brown, they're good.


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[Assistant] And I do think Josh Allen can scare them. If Baltimore plays too much man to man, he can throw some balls over their head. And you've heard me mention that the Baltimore Ravens front seven is not real fast.


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[Assistant] And Josh Allen, I do think can have some get outside the pocket and run tight plays, but I'm with you with the Ravens overall. The Ravens are the best team in football right now. They're rolling and they're a bully that's rolling. They're one of those teams that when there's a bully and when they're, they're a bully and they feel like they're just the biggest baddest dudes on the planet.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's, I, listen, I, I think you're right. I think the 49ers tried to do that a little last week. And I think, again, the rain slowed them down from being able to do that. But I did think Lamar took a few hits last week in that game that I hadn't seen him take in some other games. Uh, so I'm with you there. I think that's a very real thought. All right.


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[Assistant] Bangles at Browns. Browns at home, of course, eight and a half point favorites over under at forty and a half. Uhm, go ahead, Mike.


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[Assistant] Uhm, the Browns though, I just think have too many weapons on offense. I think the Browns defense is very well coached too. You know, so I think it'll be hard on the Bengals to consistently move the ball in them. And the big thing is the Browns are really good at running the football. They can, I mean, Nick Chubb is, Nick Chubb is phenomenal. He's leading the league and rushing for a reason.


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[Assistant] And that's where I really worry about it. I just don't know if the Bengals, they can't stop the run. And if they put too many eggs in the, we're gonna stop the run basket, then, you know, the, the Browns of course have the weapons on the outside to beat them. Uh, so I, I got a similar score. I'm going Browns 30 to 20 at home. I think they get the win. That's enough on that one. Anything else you wanted to say there?


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[Assistant] No. Okay. All right. Redskins at Packers. Uh, Redskins got that huge win last weekend against the Carolina Panthers. A surprise here because we both picked the Panthers to cover and do all that. Going up to Green Bay. Uhm, Green Bay is favored by 13 points. Over under at 41 and a half.


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[Assistant] Uhm, Green Bay seemed to find their mojo last week against the New York Giants. Do you think they add to this? I know you think they're gonna win. Do you think they blow them out is really what I wish I should ask you.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I don't know if I'll go that far. I think the Washington Redskins can hang around and be annoying because of their ability to run the football, what we've seen. And we know the Packers are not good at stopping the run.


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[Assistant] So, if they can't hone in on, holy shit, we better stop the run game or we're gonna lose. You know, then I don't know what else to say. Then they're just, they're a fraud team altogether. The other thing I'll say too is this Redskins defense is not bad. They're coached very well. I'm a big fan of Greg Banuski.


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[Assistant] Uhm, you know, I, I just think I, I look at it for two, what scares me for the Redskins in this is they're not the best at stopping the run.


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[Assistant] And when you can't stop the run against Green Bay, that's when Aaron Rodgers can become extra dangerous too, because it just makes the play action pass game pretty much unstoppable.


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[Assistant] And I got a similar score to you. I'm going Packers 34-17. I wouldn't be shocked that like in the third quarter of this game was like 17, you know, 17-14 or something like that. I'm not, I would not be shocked.


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[Assistant] I agree. I totally agree with you, Mike. I can't, I can't say it enough. Yes, the Packers are a different team at home.


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[Assistant] And you're right, I think they match up worse with the NFC's best than your Minnesota Vikings do. I agree with you there. Well, it took a half hour before the first reference to my Minnesota Vikings.


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[Assistant] I mean, I know you got connections, make it happen. I mean, come on, come on. Then you could really like boss Kirk Cousins around and be like, I own 0.0001% of you and you need to be better in primetime.


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[Assistant] Good luck. Alright, Broncos, Texans. Broncos got the big win last week. You called it. They're going to the Houston Texans who got an even bigger win against the Patriots.


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[Assistant] Texans favored by nine and a half points over under at 41 and a half. We know this Broncos defense is good. Do you think the Texans blow them out or do you think the Broncos keep this close?


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[Assistant] I'm with you there. Sorry, I'm burping my coffee, okay? Uhm, but yes. Thank you. You said a lot of the right things. The Texans are dangerous. Their offensive line is better. They can run the ball.


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[Assistant] And they're balanced on offense and that's the greatness of what they're doing there. And then of course they got the awesome triplets at receiver with Deshaun Watson.


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[Assistant] And to your point about them hitting the stride, I think their defense is hitting a stride too. I do. You know, I just think with Bradley Roby back healthy, Vernon Hargraves, that was a great signing by him. Jonathan Joseph playing good.


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[Assistant] You know, having the, uhm, other Reed back. What the hell's his name? Uh, Eric is his brother. He's, uh, the second Reed, who's from- Jason? What the- Justin? Justin, right? Justin? Justin Reed? Is that it? I don't know- I don't know that. Either way, he helps their defense, is my point. And-


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[Assistant] Uh, also I'll say this. You know, last week for a guy like Drew Locke, you know, he didn't do anything special. Made a few good throws. Cortland Sutton's a beast and made some great catches for a touchdown.


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[Assistant] The chargers are a team that they don't mix it up a lot on defense. You've heard me say that before. The Texans on the other hand, is like,


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[Assistant] This guy's over here, that guy's over there, the safety's over here, what are they about to do? And then he's gonna say, set hut, and it's all gonna change and he's gonna go, rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


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[Assistant] The more actually I think I should have gone more the other way. I think that this could be even a, like,


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[Assistant] More of a blowout, when all's said and done. I think this could be a 31-13, something like that. So, uh. Yea, you're allowed to change it. You're allowed to change your score. Alright, you know what? I'll change it. I'm gonna go.


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[Assistant] I know, well I know, okay. Right. I'm just telling, I know, I'm just talking, well okay, a million to thirteen they're gonna win. Uhm, yeaah, I'm just talking, I'm just talking, cause I'm trying to figure out my best bets as we go here too, that just makes sense to me, but yeaah, I, uh.


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[Assistant] Right, it's that, I just circled it because it's a possibility. There's no doubt about that. Alright, let's move to the next one.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I know you're picking the Vikings, but do you pick them to cover?


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[Assistant] Yeah, Lions defense not good. Uh, we know that, uhm, we saw the Vikings put up a ton of points on them earlier this year.


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[Assistant] And, uh, I know the Adam Thielen thing, just to talk on that in a second, it is a little concerning. I mean, you know, hey, that takes your offense and team up to just another little level there to make you that much more dangerous in the playoffs. So they need to have him ready. And again, you know what I want to say?


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[Assistant] You know, this is like, what are we on? Eight weeks now, the hamstring? There's something else the matter, Minnesota. It's, it's not the hamstring. There's another muscle that's not working correctly. Let's figure it out.


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[Assistant] Eight weeks of rehab on the hamstring would be enough for any hamstring. It's obviously there's another issue there. I'm so sick of NFL's rehab programs. They're in the stone age. Uhm, I'm going Vikings, Vikings 30 to 17 as well. I think the Lions will score a few points here and there just because, I mean,


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[Assistant] Kenny Galladay's gonna catch a few passes on Xavier Rhodes. I mean, that's what's gonna happen. He stinks. I don't know any other way to say it. When will they think about benching him is the real question. That's what I wanna know.


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[Assistant] Uhm, but yeaah. Either way, your team is superior to them. I feel like the Lions have thrown in the towel for the year. Uh, they kinda gave their last ditch effort last week. Vikings 30-17 and damn that's right on the spread so I won't be betting that one.


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[Assistant] Alright, fine, I'll make it 31-17. 31-17, so I pick, uh, pick a side. Alright.


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[Assistant] Alright, game of the day at one o'clock. Uhm, 49ers at Saints. Saints favored by two and a half points.


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[Assistant] I know we're both pumped for this. I'm excited because it's indoor and we don't have to worry about weather ruining the football game. It's two great coaches. It's two fun offenses and it's two really hard hitting physical defenses. Mike, where do you think? Who do you think has the advantage here?


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[Assistant] I think that, you know, again, the 49ers, this is an interesting matchup for their defense.


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[Assistant] You know, they're playing an offense that's got a big offensive line, but hey, there's no Andrus Pete.


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[Assistant] There's no Tehran Armstead on that, that Saints offensive line right now. So that's, they're a little less than their 100% self there.


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[Assistant] Uhm, I don't think that the Saints have played a defense as good as this all year, obviously. I mean, you know, the 49ers are the best defense in football for my money. I would take them over the Patriots. And then, you know, on the other side of the ball,


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[Assistant] I do think the Saints will give them a tough time. There's no doubt about it. Do we know where Marshawn Lattimore status is? Again, because that's another one that's important to me. Now the Saints can stop the run. They're big. They're really good that way. The Saints have a flaw though of speed on their front seven.


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[Assistant] And on the indoor turf and the SuperDome, it's total advantage. San Francisco 49ers that way.


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[Assistant] And if Marshawn Latimore is not playing, I get scared for the Saints in general. You know, the Saints, uhm, they can't play man to man with PJ Williams or Eli Apple. They're just not good man to man corners. That's all there is to it.


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[Assistant] And then if you play too much zone defense against Kyle Shanahan and he's having a little success in the run game.


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[Assistant] Alright, that's good. That does give them flexibility. He is the type of guy that can match up in certain scenarios and take people, uh, erase people a little bit. So, that's cool. Alright.


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[Assistant] Let's not spend a lot of time on this one. The Dolphins going up to New York here on Sunday. Dolphins at Jets. Jets favored by five points over under.


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[Assistant] But I'm sticking with the Dolphins. Alright, I hope it does haunt you. I'm gonna go with the Jets 23-20, but I don't, you know, again, it is. It's hunch. Who knows? You know, I guess I have a little more faith in the Jets offense than the Dolphins offense. Uh, I go that way. I think that the Jets defense is a hair more talented.


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[Assistant] And then the fact that the, you know, yeah, the dolphins got the big win last week and now they're coming up to the Northeast and going to play, you know, in a 40 degree weather game. I just think the dolphins might lay an egg a little bit there, but yeah, I'm not betting on that. Uh, it's total gut feel there. I'm just going for the jets to get their, their payback for the loss down in Miami. All right, let's move on.


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[Assistant] Yeah, this is a tough one. It is. Uhm, I think there's a few interesting angles here. I mean, again,


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[Assistant] The Bucks defense is good at stopping the run. The Colts can run the ball. They can throw the ball.


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[Assistant] Do we know the status of TY Hilden or anybody there as far as the past game? Cause that's been hurting them more than anything. Is Paris Campbell back? I know Devin Funches is officially done for the year.


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[Assistant] Are any of them back? I just want to make sure they're before we move on here because that, that is a big thing. You know, the other thing too, they call Steve.


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[Assistant] Okay, I mean, there's some weapons. You know, if T.Y. Hilton is gonna play this game...


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[Assistant] I think I would pick the coltstone winnet. I really do. Uhm, but.


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[Assistant] With him not practicing, I think I'm gonna switch my bet here. You know, I actually was going Colts 31-28 to win a field goal type of football game because I do, I do think that


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[Assistant] You know, the Colts are well coached on defense, but they have no difference makers. They have no stars. Darius Leonard in the middle of the line, middle linebackers really good. They're coached well, but there's just no strip sack fumble guys or pick six guys or anything like that.


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[Assistant] And I just don't think that's a good formula against a team like the Bucs. Plus they're not overly creative and I think the Bucs are of course creative on offense and can gash you in the pass game.


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[Assistant] Man, that'll suck, but I would like to switch it around, but I know that's too late. Hilton said yesterday he's not sure he's going to play again this season. Oh, alright, so forget it. I'm definitely going Bucks 31-28, you're right.


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[Assistant] You know, watch, watch, watch me be wrong. And the new field goal kicker, uh, ends up winning the game. And we both have, what did you pick the score to be?


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[Assistant] 27-20, Buccaneers. Alright, so I'm picking a push at 31-28, so I'm gonna move that up and make it 34-28 to avoid the push, alright? Cause I know you don't like that.


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[Assistant] No, let's move on. Four o'clock games, finally. Okay, that game could be fun though, Colt's Bucks. I wouldn't be shocked if that's a fun game. Alright.


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[Assistant] Two things. First off, I was the scout team quarterback all week that week as Peyton Manning. And the plays that they...


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[Assistant] Let me say this first, Gruden and Brad Johnson, when we go up 35 to 14, cause I think we had a pick six. I think Ronday Barbara had a pick six to go up by 21. I remember Brad Johnson and Gruden.


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[Assistant] The plays they beat us with down the stretch, they ran a real long slant and go to Marvin Harrison. They ran another play where they did like a post and a deep crosser. We ran those plays every day in practice, twice a day in practice against a corner we had named Tim Wansley and


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[Assistant] He messed them both up. And I'm telling you, there's not a play he saw more during the week in practice. I mean, we, we did a ton because it was one of their go-to things. They beat us. They come back to win the game. It was the damnedest thing I ever saw. All right. Uhm, sorry.


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[Assistant] Thank you very much. Thank you. Uh, alright. Here we go. Chargers, Jags. Chargers, Gus Bradley going back to Jacksonville. The ex head coach there who probably wants a little payback. They're favored by three points on the road at the Jaguars over under 43. What do you think, Mike?


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[Assistant] Alright, well, I'm going the other way on this one. I'm going Chargers. I mean, that Chargers defense is still really good.


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[Assistant] Uhm, you know, I mean, I, you know, it's hard. I can't bet on either one of these teams either. I mean, I do think Gardner Minshew is, you know, a pain in the butt. He's an upgrade from what we've seen from Nick Falls this year. But I guess what I'm saying more is I have faith in the Chargers defense. The Jaguars off defense has certainly fallen off.


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[Assistant] And I'm gonna play the, I'm gonna play that the Chargers play somewhat of a clean game on the offensive side of the ball this week. I guess that's where I'm going with this one. I'm going hunch. I did pick a 20 to 17, but now that I'm looking and that's a push, I'm telling you, I should work in Vegas. I really should. Uhm, I'll say Chargers win.


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[Assistant] 21 to 17, okay? Just to make sure that I don't have a push once again. Uhm, that's that. Anything else you want to say about that?


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[Assistant] I think I've told you, I've heard from sources there was many people in the organization weeks back.


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[Assistant] That wanted to make this change. I don't know what stopped it, but people wanted to bench Philip Rivers within the organization and Tire Hotel. I think the organization's got tired of Philip Rivers. That's just what I've heard.


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[Assistant] And, uh, we'll see where that goes from there. But this is definitely looking like it's his last year, maybe in the NFL, certainly his last year with the Los Angeles Chargers. Alright.


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[Assistant] Steelers, Cardinals, Steelers favored by two and a half on the road against the Arizona Cardinals over under at 43 and a half. Uh, Kyla Murray, the Cardinals looked like shit last week. Do you think they bounce back at all in any shape, way or fashion and keep this close?


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[Assistant] I'm, uh, I'm going to the Steelers too. I don't, you know, Arizona has not seen a defense like this all year long. Now I know they've seen good defenses. They've played the 49ers and the Seahawks and all that. All right. And not that they've had huge, they haven't had huge offensive outputs in any of those games. Um, one, because they're all line is not good.


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[Assistant] They're one of those teams like I talked about with the Texans, like, you know, you line up and you come to the line of scrimmage and you go,


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[Assistant] Whoa, what coverage, what are they doing? And then everybody moves around and everybody's going everywhere and you're going, what the hell? And then all of a sudden it's four big jacked motherfuckers.


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[Assistant] All year long, uh, and I'm going to go with the, with the Steelers 23 to 13 to, you know, the Cardinals, you can run the ball in them. I think Duck Hodges will make just enough happen.


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[Assistant] I do agree with you. I think the Cardinals can be a pain in the ass. I wouldn't be shocked that this game is like 16-13 with like 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter and then the Steelers put one more home or have a short field off a turnover and score one more. That's kind of how I envision it, but I'm picking the Steelers to win.


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[Assistant] Yeah, that's right. And the Steelers, you know, they're one of those teams, you know, like, like, like the Seahawks, we almost say. They're incapable of blowing anybody out almost at times. It seems like every game they play is close. Uhm, okay. Maybe the game of the day. What's the bigger game? Chiefs-Patriots or 49ers-Saints? What's the bigger game in your mind?


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[Assistant] Seahawks, Rams. Okay. You're a kiss-ass to NBA.


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[Assistant] Yep, yep, you're right. It is a half-click below. You're right. Alright, so here we go. Chiefs at Patriots. Patriots favored by three points at home. Over under 48 and a half. Patriots offense struggling.


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[Assistant] Uh, nobody knows who to blame, uh, everybody in Boston is trying to blame everybody but Tom Brady, which is really annoying to me. I'm just sick of that, okay? I just, I am. And I will say this too, doesn't anybody find it interesting that


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[Assistant] Uhm, Tom Brady seemed happy after a three touchdown pass loss and was mad with a no touchdown pass win two weeks ago. I just, I'm just pointing it out. Just throwing it out there. All right. Chiefs at Patriots, favored by Patriots, favored by three. What do you think, Mike?


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[Assistant] I mean, of course the Chiefs offense is not like as explosive as we saw last year.


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[Assistant] I think they're tinkering more with what they're trying to do. I think they're trying to you know, show some variation in their attack, which I think will be annoying for the Patriots a little bit.


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[Assistant] You know, the Chiefs of getting underneath the center a little bit more. They're trying to run the ball a little bit more. They're playing a little more too tight end sets. Those are things that are annoying to the Patriots, let alone just like we saw last week. You know, the Patriots are the one of a great man to man team, the best man to man team in football. But


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[Assistant] I don't care how good you are at man to man, it's really tough to play man to man when you have three receivers out there with rockets up their ass. And that's what they saw last week with the Houston Texans.


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[Assistant] That was dangerous. And that's a little bit like the Chiefs this week. So I think that's really intriguing. On the other side of the ball with the Patriots offense versus the Chiefs defense, you know, we know the Patriots offense is struggling. I do think they'll find their formula to get their feet together at some point.


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[Assistant] I want to remind you that they lost two games in a row last year in December when they lost to the Dolphins and the Steelers. The other thing I'll say is would the Patriots


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[Assistant] You know, the Chiefs defense, I know I've said this, but it's been better. It's been better. They have a little talent in their secondary. Steve Spagnolo, who knows how the Patriots like to attack, aka the Super Bowl with the Giants,


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[Assistant] He can do some things to be a real pain in the ass for, for offenses in general. I mean, they played great last week against that Raiders, Raiders offense who has shown signs of being able to run the ball and move the ball on a lot of good defenses this year. I'm going with the upset. I am.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna follow my heart here and because last week everything I said in our talk about Patriots Texans


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[Assistant] I really was talking like the Texans were a tough matchup for the Patriots, but I chickened out and picked the Patriots. I, I feel kind of the same way again this week, and I'm going to just go with it. Even though it's so scary to pick the Patriot against the Patriots at home, I'm going Chiefs 24-21.


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[Assistant] Wow. Yeah. Wow. Yeah. That'll shake some stuff up if that happened, wouldn't it?


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[Assistant] Over under at 47 and a half. Titans came off the big win. The Raiders are reeling lately. Do you think the Raiders can get back on track, Mike?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I wanna say you're right, like the things you say, you know, part of my gut wants to say all that stuff, but...


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[Assistant] I-I just can't put any money or put my mouth- money where my mouth is when it comes to the Raiders offense right now. And I don't think they're gonna be able to...


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[Assistant] Run the ball well enough against this Titans defense, uh, and they don't have the weapons in the past game to, I think, expose the Titans there. I-I'm gonna go with the Titans here.


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[Assistant] I think the Titans kind of got their mojo going. I think they're, they believe in themselves a little bit. And I think the biggest thing is they have consistent quarterback play.


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[Assistant] Well, I think what leads us to that narrative of the up and down thing over the last few years is Marcus Mariota. And Tana Hill has been very, uh, this way. So I'm going Titans here, 24-20. I think they win. I think they pretty much eliminate the Raiders. And of course they stay alive in the playoff.


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[Assistant] Alright, alright, I would not be, I would not be totally shocked, certainly. Uhm, alright, Sunday Night Football, we got a good one.


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[Assistant] It's the Seahawks who are just absolutely flying high and kicking butt. The Rams, they bounced back with a great win last week. They're favored by one point.


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[Assistant] Over under at 46 and a half. And the Seahawks have won four straight against the spread mic. If that means anything to you, do you think the Rams can pull off an upset at home in this one?


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[Assistant] It's not an upset, they're the favorite. I mean, yeah, but uh, yeah, actually you're right. I'm shocked by that. Yeah, go ahead.


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[Assistant] Early in the week, I thought, ooh, this could be scary for the Seahawks. I mean, again, the Rams are...


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[Assistant] I really respect their toughness, their ability to battle.


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[Assistant] Uh, they did get the mojo going last week. I don't know if I could say it's realistic that they can do it that way again this week against the Seahawks. You know, Jadevion Clowney, it sounds like he was feeling really good after the game. So he's going to be, you know, close to the hundred percent self help there that way.


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[Assistant] I think, you know, the bootleg game scares me a little against Seattle because they could be way too aggressive at times.


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[Assistant] But I don't think the Rams run game is good enough to compliment the boot game if that makes sense to where it's as dangerous yet. And that's where it scares me. And then this is the other thing that scares me too. And this is where I go Seahawks. I'm going to pick them. But I think the other thing I look at is


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[Assistant] The Seahawks and this six offensive lineman set, the biggest weakness on the Rams defense is they lack the size of some of the other really top end football teams in the NFL. And we saw that with the Ravens. The Ravens just


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[Assistant] They plowed them. They just said, we're bigger than you. Aaron Donald, you're a 285 pound D tackle. You're awesome. But if there's a weakness, you're not good against getting double teamed when it's two 320 pounders pushing you.


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[Assistant] To where it's, you know, a too tight end look, but one of those tight ends is another tackle, as in George Fan. And that is scary to me for the Rams in general.


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[Assistant] So I-I'm going Seahawks, too. I-I-I think that the Rams can keep it close. I don't think it'll be a high-scoring game, but I just think the Seahawks are a little too big and physical.


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[Assistant] For the Los Angeles Rams defense. And I think that pretty much goes for the same on the other side of the ball. I think the Seahawks defense is a little too big and physical for the Rams right now. I'm going Seahawks 20 to 17. What'd you pick the score to be?


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[Assistant] 27-24. 27-24. Alright, so we're both on the Seahawks there. Alright, Monday Night Football. It's Eli Manning. He's back. We're pretty sure he's back. Uh, Giants at Eagles. Eagles favored by 9.5 points. Over-under at 45.5.


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[Assistant] All I know is that even if the Eagles get in the playoffs, I'm not scared of them. They're not going to make a run. I think they're less likely to make a run than the Dallas Cowboys or whoever wins the NFC East.


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[Assistant] But Mike, do you think that Eli Manning and company can pull off an upset or at least keep this close?


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[Assistant] Yeaah, uhm, you know, same thing here. You know, again, Eli Manning being back does make it more interesting. You know, uhm, but it's still the Giants offense.


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[Assistant] You know, the offensive line, I think they could get absolutely run over by this Eagles defensive line at certain moments. Uh, even for Eli Manning, who's going to go to the Hall of Fame, it's never easy to just to come back in after you haven't played in 10 weeks or maybe more than that, 11 weeks.


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[Assistant] Uh, and just think that you're going to be hitting on all cylinders there. I think it's an ugly win for the Eagles too. Like I, I'm with you. I could see the Eagles being up.


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[Assistant] You know, like 14-10 and then maybe 21-10 and maybe the Giants make it 21-17 and then the Eagles score one more to kind of put it away somewhere in the fourth quarter. I'm going Eagles 28-17 and that one I got them covering as well. And that is that for our week.


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[Assistant] 14 picks. So we got a few disagreements this week, right?


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[Assistant] Uhm, four disagreements, and what are they, Pete? Just so I make sure. We got them.


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[Assistant] Miami Jets, I got the Jets, you're going the Dolphins.


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[Assistant] I didn't change it. I've never changed an actual pick of my games. I promise you that. I have not.


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[Assistant] Alright, so stop texting and put your phone down and get to your best bet, alright? Hands free. Alright. Hands free.


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[Assistant] Okay, alright, so I'm gonna pick that as well. I'm going 49ers over the Saints as well. I feel the same way you do. I think the Saints have, uh,


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[Assistant] You know, of course, they're very good. We're not trying, neither one of us are trying to say that, but they've had a very favorable schedule as of late and really haven't played great in any of those games, let alone losing to the Falcons a few weeks back. And you know, the same, uh, the, the, the, the 49ers.


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[Assistant] Yeaah, they, I mean, they've had one hell of a schedule. I don't know what else to say. And, uh, I do. I think they're the better team here and I think they'll win in that environment down in New Orleans. So, I'm with you on that one. Alright, what's pick number two?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I'm going there too. I don't know what else to say. That's my best bet of the week as well. I'm going there. That's what I picked as I was sitting here and I'm not gonna just be scared off.


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[Assistant] Cause we're both picking the same thing. I hate that we're picking the same thing. Uh, but that one, it makes too much sense to me too. And I think the, I think the Seahawks have found something with this six offensive line set. I think they were dabbling in it all year long. And I think last week they came to the realization like,


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[Assistant] David Moore, exactly one of those guys. You know, when you got them on the outside along with, you know, Josh Gordon, it's a good formula for a team like that. So I'm with you there. All right. What's pick number three?


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[Assistant] Yeah, he's taking the over. He's taking the over, but he's also picking the 49ers to cover the spread too. I got the 49ers to cover, I got the over under. Okay, alright, I like that. So now I'm gonna be rooting for the, I'm gonna be rooting the 49ers to win that game, uh, 23 to 20.


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[Assistant] Uh, so, so you don't hit that. Uh, what'd you say Pete? Pete said something in my ear. What'd you say?


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[Assistant] Alright, nothing nothing go, he said. Nothing nothing go. He probably wanted me to make fun of you for picking best bets on the same game twice. What an asshole you are. Alright. But it's two different bets! I getcha, fine, I'm not, I got no problem with it. I'm still gonna pick on you, you asshole, alright? Here we go. Alright, make your pick. I'm going with the Texans. Against the Broncos.


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[Assistant] You know, that was a game that I told you as the more I talked it out, the more I thought, ooh, this is not a good game for the Broncos. I think the Broncos defense of course is good, but I think the Texans have found their mojo on the offensive side of the ball. I think they're a completely different team when Will Fuller is healthy and him and stills and Deandre Hopkins.


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[Assistant] Their run game's real, and I really think the big thing is Drew Locke.


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[Assistant] We'll be in a little bit of a culture shock in this one down in Houston with a defense that's very game plan specific and does some different stuff that way. Uh, I'm picking the Texans to win that game 30 to 13.


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[Assistant] They were favored by nine and a half and I have them covering that spread. So that's that. There's our three best bets. Okay.


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[Assistant] And, uh, there's the recap. Alright, Mike's got San Francisco covering, as do I.


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[Assistant] Mike's taking the over in the San Francisco New Orleans game. My second best bet is the Houston Texans covering the nine and a half points right against the Denver Broncos. And then we're both riding with the Seattle Seahawks to win the game flat out where the Los Angeles Rams are favored by one, which I still am shocked by that a little bit.


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[Assistant] I really am. Uhm, I'm just gonna add, I did think about maybe riding with the Browns is my best bet.


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[Assistant] You know, I could see them blowing out the bangles. Uh, I did think about the Packers. We both had the Packers covering the spread by a lot. But what? We're both scared that the Redskins run game can make this close. I'm guessing that was your logic, right? Because I know you even said you thought maybe the Redskins could win the game.


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[Assistant] Yep, I get you there. I also thought about the Steelers over the Cardinals a little bit. You know, not that it's pretty, but I just can't bet on that Steelers offense. They keep games close too. So, alright, that's it. Hope everybody enjoyed.


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[Assistant] Everybody have a good weekend. That's Chris Simms on Button PFTPM. Joint collaboration. J-J-J-Joint collaboration. Uh, Mike, I'll see you Sunday. You the man.


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[Assistant] Uhm, please subscribe, rate, review to PFTPM or Chris Sims on Button. And, uh, Monday I will have my recap of Week 14 with Paul Burmeister. We will get into some deep dives and some themes that I know Mike will probably do with PFTPM later on that day as well. Uh, anything you want to say before we go?


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[Assistant] I'll be doing, I'll be working. I will, good, good job. You work, I will be watching a little film in the morning as I eat my breakfast and coffee, then I'm gonna go to the gym and get a workout, and then I'm gonna be doing nothing. So, uh, you're pretty close, but alright everybody, peace out, have a good weekend, see ya, up yours, Florio, bye bye.


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[Assistant] Yo yo, what's up? Come on man, subscribe on YouTube to Chris Simms Unbuttoned Podcast. I need you, please hit the subscribe button, please!


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[Assistant] And, you know, when we go up there, it really works. Well, yeaah, cause practice is not the game. Right. You know, it's a, oh, you know, we could get this next playoff. Those things,


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[Assistant] By practice, by even practicing it, whatever, it's always gonna be slower in the game. So that's one thing. Those passes you are talking about, I don't think either one of those guys, Patrick or Noah Fant, are really ready. In other words,


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[Assistant] So neither one of them did it, uhm, yeaah, they probably have practiced it.


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[Assistant] But, it sure didn't look like it was polished. And those are...