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[Assistant] The Packers are three-point favorites against Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, and company. Chris, you pointed out on PFT Live an intriguing angle here. Matt LaFleur, the coach of the Packers, came from the Titans. He was there for a year with Mike Vrabel as the offensive coordinator, so there's some familiarity there. Both teams have great offenses. Both teams have question marks on defenses.


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[Assistant] Could we get some sort of a special Christmas weekend shootout? Who do you like in this one? Again, Packers three and a half point favorites.


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[Assistant] Or three points, not three and a half. And over or under, is it 56? Who do you have?


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[Assistant] 26 Tennessee Titans winning that game. A lot of same reasons you've discussed. I, and you know, the, the, the Packers.


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[Assistant] Are more prone to stepping in a pothole at home when they are facing a team that they should beat, but, and I'd like to think that they've addressed some of those issues with not having enough energy at the start of a game. They had plenty of energy on Saturday night. They were up 21 to 3 at halftime. It was the second half when they fell apart. But I just think that the Titans, across the board,


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[Assistant] Are the better team than the Green Bay Packers. Yes, the Packers are holding the one seed in the NFC, but the AFC is the better conference this year. Definitely. And I, and I agree with you. Look, I, I think that this Tennessee Titans offense, when it's, when it's firing on all cylinders.


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[Assistant] Is tough to beat. Now they got overwhelmed by the Browns. They kind of stepped into a buzzsaw that day. They fell behind and they tried to come back. But I think that with that division title hanging out there,


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[Assistant] And, uh, you know, the risk that they're gonna fall out of the playoffs altogether. They're playing for more than the Packers. I think the Packers are gonna get the one seed regardless. They can lose this game and still get the one seed next weekend.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and, uh, and the titans, you know, at this time of year, when everything else is equal, I'm gonna, I'm gonna skew toward the more desperate team. And the titans are more desperate than the packers. The packers don't need this one as badly as the titans do. You throw that on top of everything else, 30, 26 titans.


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[Assistant] Did this tell you that they're going to have a hell of a time in the playoffs if you have these concerns about them against one of the better teams in the NFL?


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[Assistant] If they beat the titans, I may feel differently about that, but then I also may feel that the letdown is still looming. It's almost like let's get one out of our systems and remind ourselves


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[Assistant] How it feels to be flat. How it feels to not have enough energy. How it feels to get beaten in a game that we think we should win. So they are on guard when it's time to play in the divisional round. And then...


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[Assistant] Whoever it is, it's the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers beat them 38 to 10. It's gonna be a different setting altogether if it's Buccaneers at Packers.


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[Assistant] Tom Brady knows a thing or two about playing in the cold in January. He's made a career out of doing just that. Monday Night Football, the New England Patriots without Tom Brady, eliminated from playoff consideration by the Miami Dolphins. The Bills coming in as the new AFC champions, first time since 1995.


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[Assistant] Bill's are 7 point favorites, over under is 46.


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[Assistant] I think this one could get ugly for the New England Patriots. Chris, what's your pick?


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[Assistant] I got 30 to 20 bills, same idea. It's a smothering, it's a slow death. Now, if the bills have the chance to light it up, we can go back over the history of the bills' Patriots rivalry and see when either team has an opportunity.


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[Assistant] This is part of the preparation to win in January and they have the car going at full speed down the track.


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[Assistant] Now is not the time to take your foot off the gas. Now is not the time to ease on the break. Now is not the time to think about keeping guys healthy for the playoffs. This is let's keep it going. Let's go get it. And if along the way we can kick the crap out of the New England Patriots,


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[Assistant] That just gives us even more of a lift going into the postseason. So I don't see a let down. I think they're going to enjoy every second of this one. And I think it's going to be 30 to 20, if not worse for the Buffalo Bills over the New England Patriots, Chris.


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[Assistant] Let's take a break when we return. Best Bets and our Folsom Prison Blues pick. That tune that you're hearing is not Folsom Prison Blues. We'll be back with more PFTPM and Chris Sims on Button Right after this.


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[Assistant] PFTPM Christians Unbuttoned presented by Verizon Best Bets Time or


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[Assistant] As the case may be, for us, worst bets time. We were both 0-2 and 1.


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[Assistant] Last week, we pulled the lever on the slot machine the past couple of weeks and we've agreed on the first two. We just haven't agreed on the third one. We'll see if we agree on any of them this week. You go first. If, yeah, I, yeah, you, cause you don't want to agree with me because it hasn't worked out well for us. I'll begin with the easiest one.


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[Assistant] Tampa Bay Buccaneers covering the spread against the Detroit Lions.


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[Assistant] They're just playing out the string. They've got coaches not available. The Buccaneers trying to get their playoff berth. Tom Brady back in Michigan. There'll be a little extra kick for him. I think they are peaking at the right time. They'll cover the nine and a half point spread. I picked at 31 20, but I'm just trying to be respectful to the Lions and not say it's going to be 41 to 17. I like the Buccaneers to cover.


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[Assistant] Alright, I'm gonna stay on Saturday. Cardinals favorite at home against the 49ers. For all the reasons we discussed earlier, I think the 49ers are done. The Cardinals trying to get to the postseason. 30-23. The Cardinals win. The Cardinals cover the spread. That's my second pick.


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[Assistant] Bears for me as my final pick, the Bears, uh, to cover the spread against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was torn between the Bears and the Bills, decided to go with the Bears, giving seven and a half at Jacksonville. That's, oh, you got one more still. I do.


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[Assistant] Alright, everybody, Merry Christmas, we'll see you real soon. Enjoy the games.


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[Assistant] I can't wait either. It really is. I do think, I know, I know, you know, we didn't, I didn't pick all these teams to get here this weekend, but I think what you say, realistically, when you take the big picture of the season,


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[Assistant] You know, these are teams that we had in the top four conversation all year long. Even when the bucks fell off to where I'll give us credit.


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[Assistant] We consistently said, ah, you know, I know it's not looking good, but still when they play their best, they have the look of being one of the best teams in football.


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[Assistant] And I'm glad we never got off of that. And I, yes, I think we are with the four best teams in football and a year where there was no off season and, and, and training camps. We thought earlier this year that this would be a year of the quarterbacks, right? Cause the offenses will be farther above. Well, Hey, looky here. We got the three best quarterbacks in the game and a guy who's 43.


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[Assistant] And yeah, has some help around him and things like that, but obviously it's still awesome too. And good enough to where, yeah, he can win the Superbowl and do special things with that support system. So I'm pumped. I really am. Which one are you more excited for?


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[Assistant] Yeah, 13, you're right. And I mean, we've had a lot of years where we've gotten into divisional weekend and we're like, oh man, we could see, you know, Patriots versus Packers in the Superbowl in a few weeks. That would be awesome. 12 versus 12.


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[Assistant] You know, we got cheated out of that in 14 because the damn Richard Rod, was it Richard Rodgers who didn't recover the onside kick and all that crap. That would have been an awesome Superbowl if we got to see it, but you're right. It's not a Superbowl.


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[Assistant] But it still has the importance, the same level of importance, really, and, uh, legacies are on the line, especially, I think, for Aaron Rodgers.


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[Assistant] Yeah, where do you want to start? You want to talk about Rogers and their matchup on, you know, the Bucks defense or the other way around?


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[Assistant] Well, okay, there's a few things. You know, the first time they played, you know, there was some troubling things you see. Now both of these teams are a little different and the Packers...


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[Assistant] You know, as we know, have become a lot better really the last six or seven weeks. Definitely. I think the one, the one thing that jumped out to me about the first game, even though they jumped out to a 10-0 lead,


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[Assistant] I came away watching it back going, yeah, it was a 10-0 lead, but it wasn't like the offense executed it and they just blew the bucks off the field and it was wide open receivers and ran the ball. Really, when I started to break it down, I went, man.


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[Assistant] This wasn't easy. In fact, they got down the field both times just cause Aaron Rogers made some off schedule plays and unbelievable throws like he does. So it was not a great offensive day altogether. The Bucks D Mike, as we know, let's just start with this.


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[Assistant] Do we think the Packers offense can run against this Buccaneers defense? Like, what are your thoughts there?


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[Assistant] Exactly, that's where, that to me will be a big component of the football game.


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[Assistant] On the Buccaneers all year long. First off, JPP and Shaquille Barrett are very good at like kind of setting the edge. And if you do get around them, they're athletic enough to kind of get out there and never let you turn the corner, let alone like those guys.


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[Assistant] Maybe you can run up the middle. I gotta see it though. I gotta see it. Like we said on the show this morning, nobody is running the bucks all year except your Minnesota Vikings and Dalvin Cook.


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[Assistant] I don't know if I can expect that to happen this week, and even though I respect this Packers run game. Here's the other thing that jumps out to me, Mike.


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[Assistant] And, and maybe this is where the Packers approach could be different. The first time around, you know, the Packers went into that game, they were kind of on fire, I believe they were undefeated at that point.


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[Assistant] Everything they had been doing was just working. It didn't matter. It just was, hey, we're awesome, blah, blah, blah. That was the first time a team gave them some issues.


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[Assistant] Another thing I said to you on the show today was way too many deep throws, aggressive schemes the first time around. That has to change because I don't think you can sit there and expect to sit in the pocket all day long against this, you know, Buccaneers pass rush, which is another one where I go.


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[Assistant] You know, how do we feel about that? Do we think Roger's going to be able to sit back there all day and throw the ball with this defensive line and all that? I mean, you know, I'm asking you because I don't know the answer either. What do you think?


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[Assistant] Yeaah, I-I hear you. And you know, when it comes to that aspect, I have more faith in the Bucs defense being able to...


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[Assistant] I feel like they have more of those guys. I mean, I, I, I do.


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[Assistant] That's an advantage to the, to the Bucs altogether. Now, the Bucs defense, we saw how awesome they were last week. I don't think they can play that exact same style they did against Drew Brees and the Saints. I know a lot of people, I, I've heard that and I've been on a radio, you know, here and there where, you know, I, I expect to see the same approach from the Bucs defense. Eh.


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[Assistant] Yes, but they gotta be careful. They can't be playing bump and run, man to man, people all in the box to stop the run against Aaron Rodgers. You know, Drew Brees, you didn't have to worry about the ball going plus 20 yards. You didn't have to worry about that. It's a huge advantage. Aaron Rodgers, you gotta defend 20 down to the next 70 yards. You gotta defend it because he can hit throws that way.


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[Assistant] So I have a hard time thinking that aspect. And here's one other little thing, Mike, I'll throw out there. I always look in these matchups for...


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[Assistant] Does, does the coach, Matt Lafleur in this one, has there been anybody in his coaching tree or anybody he knows that's had to face this Buccaneers defense and do anything? And one thing that came up to me that I just thought was interesting, we talked about the Packers, can they protect Rodgers? They couldn't the first time around.


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[Assistant] You know, as I went here and I went, man, the Bucks lost five games this year.


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[Assistant] One of them was to the Chiefs. Yes, big plays, bombs, blah, blah, blah. The other four losses, though, were against dink and dunk teams. Teams that took the pass rush kind of out of the game and got the ball out of the quarterback's hands.


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[Assistant] And teams to what something you said earlier today was.


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[Assistant] Took advantage of a young secondary, quick, can you figure out how to close this zone and do tough stuff like that? That to me is something I think the Packers can bring to the game plan that they didn't do the first time around. And with my point with the coaching thing, you know, McVeigh and the Rams against the Buccaneers, Mike, they tore the Buccaneers up.


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[Assistant] Well, it's almost like the Packers last year in the NFC championship game. You felt like after the first two or three drives, they realized like, whoa, this ain't our day. And it just collapsed on them.


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[Assistant] Now the Buccaneers, they did get tougher. I think we both saw that through the month of, you know, December and everything like that. But yeah, I mean, your, your point is real. It's right.


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[Assistant] Avoid your memory of that game. This does not matter. This is a different animal, a different place, different stakes on the line.


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[Assistant] You know, the Buccaneers at that point had lost two games. That was a desperate point in the year for them. Green Bay was sitting back going, man, we're awesome. Are we the best team in football? So they got caught at two different times. Can't put too much into that.


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[Assistant] I do think the approach, at least for the Packers offense, has to be a little different. You know, not, you know, I think the fact that they got to see this Buccaneers D-line and the intensity and size of it, I think that can help them out. But I really look at this in a lot of ways, Mike, and go,


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[Assistant] I think for the Green Bay Packers to win the game.


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[Assistant] If I could boil it down to one thing, I'm going to go, it's going to have to be Aaron Rodgers having a special day. I really think that, and there's a lot of pressure on him as we talked about, but I really think it's going to come down to him, the offense, and I think the offense is going to play a big role in helping out the Packers defense if they want to win against the Buccaneers offense.


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[Assistant] Right, Andy, and to your point, he was down 20 to 10 in a cold AFC championship game against the Jaguars. He played in so many of these cold games, he will not be affected. And you know what, Mike, I just want to hit on that real quick because I played in Tampa and I've seen it. I've seen when you go to cold weather. Pre-game warmups, I will be watching.


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[Assistant] If you see the Buccaneers players out there in pregame warmups, you know, before they put the uniform on and you see guys with hoodies and all bundled up and crap like that, I'm telling you, I'm going to sit there and go, uh oh, I'm not sure if I like the way that looks. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs do like almost the


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[Assistant] Giants, Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard thing. Remember how they went out in pregame warmups with the Packers with no shirt on?


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[Assistant] So basically, how'd that work out? Yea, it didn't work out good, but I would think this is something they're battling in their brain and they're talking about, and I think that's why we saw Bruce Arian's clip earlier that he made that like, 28 degrees ain't cold, that's not, that's not cold, I'll tell you cold, I grew up in the north, blah blah blah. He's trying to instill that mentality into his team right now. I think you can try too hard.


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[Assistant] I think we're gonna continue to see that. I think they know this is the way they play.


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[Assistant] You know, I think one, two, Mike, you and I have hit this a few times during the week.


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[Assistant] You know, the games they've lost too. Another thing you can look in common is they got into, we're going to shotgun and throw it too much. And then defenses started to blitz and pressure Brady and he made big mistakes and all of those losses really almost every one of them. It was the same thing. And that's where they've gotten better down the last month.


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[Assistant] Balance, run the ball, Max protect Brady, so now he doesn't feel flustered and throw some stupid ball because there's pressure on him.


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[Assistant] I think we're gonna see that. You know, they kind of managed Brady in the offense to a degree last week. It's like they just said, nope, we're gonna run the ball.


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[Assistant] We're not going to let the Saints blitz and pressure, make Brady throw a bad interception and then we can't come back and win the game. We're just going to kind of stay close and then we think Brady late in the fourth quarter is going to be clutch and beat you guys. That's kind of what they played.


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[Assistant] I have it a hard time thinking they're not gonna come out trying to run the ball, uh, as far as the Bucks. The Bucks dominated the line of scrimmage the first game around running the ball, the way they're running it right now, and...


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[Assistant] I question the Packers-D, Mike. I-I do.


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[Assistant] I guess there's a part of me that worries they could get steamrolled by this huge, hulking, big, buccaneers offensive line.


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[Assistant] Agreed. Exactly right. And I think the other aspect too is, you know, I have respect for the, the Packers are a tougher team than they were last year. We've hit on that a lot over the last month when we talk about them.


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[Assistant] Uhm, you know, we, eight weeks ago, we were going, eh, the Packers have a great record. We're not sure how great they are. By the time we got here to the playoffs, we started to go, damn, no, they're pretty good. They're definitely one of the four best teams. There's no doubt about that. They changed our thoughts that way. But even last week, to me, is concerning, Mike.


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[Assistant] You know, like with Cam Acres, right? He had 18 carries for 90 yards. And I know that's not a huge day.


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[Assistant] That's not like an awesome Rams offensive line. Nobody is, is going, oh my gosh, the Rams have so many bulldozers and they're awesome that way. No, that's not that great. Okay. And then when you take into account that there's limited things you have to worry about in the pass game and you can put a lot of eggs into the, we're going to stop the run game basket when you play the Rams.


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[Assistant] And the RAM still had success, but my problem with the, the Packers is...


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[Assistant] But nobody ever physically dominates and makes a play and makes a tackle for a two yard loss or does anything like that. It's like, oh, okay, yeah, we defended it.


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[Assistant] You ran for five, but we didn't get gashed. So that's good. It was just four or five. Like, that's not gonna cut it this week. And that's what I worry about. It gets to...


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[Assistant] You know, Fournette and Ronald Jones up the middle and now they're starting to creep towards the line of scrimmage and now it's mismatch nightmare and you got Kevin King on, you know, Mike Evans one on one and Brady strikes a big play and does that stuff. That's my real worry for the Packers defense in the game.


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[Assistant] Yeah, you're right. 2724 bucks. Alright. Listen, you said a lot of good things there. There's no doubt about that. You know, one other thing I'll just say about the matchup that I just think is important is just as far as the bucks offense. Can the Packers, to what we were just talking about, can they win first and second down and


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[Assistant] You know, get the Buccaneers in third and eighth situations where Brady might have to hold the ball and now their pass rush can get there. Or can the Packers continue to score continually enough to where the Buccaneers can't be balanced and patient all the time. They gotta drop back and throw maybe more than they'd like. That to me is how the Packers are gonna have to win or


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[Assistant] Rogers is going to have to have an out of this world special day. One of the things I wrote Mike after they played in week six on the bottom of my page, I wrote.


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[Assistant] Hackers don't want to see the Buccaneers in the playoffs. Bucks win 9 out of 10 times.


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[Assistant] I think Rodgers could deliver a special game. I really do in a lot of ways, and I wouldn't be shocked if it happened because we talked about the pressures on him. But...


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[Assistant] The Bucs are the better team, and I'm gonna go with the better team right now, and I think it's a bad matchup for the Packers. I'm gonna go Bucs 26-24, winning the game and punching their ticket back home to Tampa.


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[Assistant] No, I didn't. I had 26-24. You wanna know what I did? I literally said, okay, I think both of these teams are gonna score three offensive touchdowns. I'm playing the Packers and Mason Crosby miss one extra point.


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[Assistant] And, er, no, no, yeah, I'm the other way around. I'm playing, the Buccaneers missed the extra point. And it's Packers2120.


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[Assistant] And then the Buccaneers go down 23-21. Rogers drives them down late to kick a field goal to go up 24-23. Brady says, oh contraire, I have a little more magic left. And he drives them down and they kick a last second field goal to win the game and go to the Superbowl. That's where I'm going with it.


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[Assistant] Yeah, the second hand's moving. It's there. Uhm, I don't know if you can see it right now. Now it's not set to proper time. That's what it's not. Okay, that's the problem.


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[Assistant] Right now, well, yes, exactly. Right now it's showing 10.19 and it's 10.41 a.m. So it's, it's, I don't set my, I just put it on because I like the way it looks. Uh, so that's, that's all I could tell you. That's really all there is to it.


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[Assistant] Well, I, you know, I think this is gonna be a game, Mike, at least in my opinion, and just, you know, from watching film and doing all this crap, right, that I do. I'm Ron Jaworski, I watch the film.


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[Assistant] I would be shocked if the cheats approached the game the same way they did the first time. I think we're going to see a totally different style of game from both of these football teams. You know, that was early in the year. It was kind of a bad weather game.


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[Assistant] And the Bills at that point couldn't stop the run and they were really bad on defense. I mean, really bad. Had some really bad deficiencies and things, Mike, that we went in on the time where I would just go, no, every team is trying to run the ball right at this one spot because the Bills can't figure out how to defend that spot in certain formations. And the Chiefs did that.


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[Assistant] But I think within that too, you know, they took away some of their own strengths as a football team. You know, I'm fine with running the ball.


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[Assistant] But don't get in like the I formation with a tight end and Patrick Mahomes under the center like they did the first time.


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[Assistant] How about getting the shotgun and make them worry about all the passes and then run those same runs you ran? To me, that'll put more pressure on this bill's defense. I think that's what we're gonna see more of this time. Plus, I don't think you could take the risk if you're the Chiefs. Not with that other offense on that side of the ball where you could just go, oh, we're gonna play balanced. No, they're gonna have to attack.


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[Assistant] And that's where I think you could see some sort of a shootout. And where it'll be interesting to me, the Bills defense, Mike, we've hit this a lot too. So much better than it was then compared to now. I mean, the last seven or eight weeks, it's been amazing. But the one thing I always come back to with the Bills defense, you know,


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[Assistant] They were great against the Ravens last week because they could gotta go all in.


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[Assistant] We're gonna stop the run game and we don't have to worry about everything in the past game. You know, they were great in the end of the regular season because they got in some of those like sort of matchups with like the New England Patriots and things like that. We saw in the wild card round, they had issues though. Why? Because that team had just a little balance to where you're like,


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[Assistant] Wait, we gotta stop that run. Oh wait, and they have this great pass-passing game, or not great, but good, and they couldn't stop either one.


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[Assistant] Now I don't think that's the case with the Chiefs. I don't think the Chiefs are gonna run the ball 46 times or anything like that. But the Bills are gonna be a little compromised in this one. And that to me is gonna be the big challenge for them.


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[Assistant] Is, can they confuse Mahomes and Andy Reid and give them enough crazy looks so they don't know what to expect? I don't know, Mike. I mean, what's your thoughts on that?


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[Assistant] You know, Josh Allen, the Bills, their patients, Mahomes and them, they've already had a deal with this, like they've shown their patience. They had their like, whoa, defenses are playing really conservative. What can Kansas City do to compound this? And they went, wait, we can run it a little, but we will extend our short passing game and make that better.


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[Assistant] And, you know, they are a patient team when they have to be. They, they really are. Yea, the bills, I don't know if I'm as convinced with that.


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[Assistant] I would be worried about that, and that's to me where I would force the issue a little bit. You know?


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[Assistant] To your point also there along those lines, the Bills have no running game. The Chiefs have a running game that you have to defend a little bit. You can't just go...


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[Assistant] Forget it. We're not even gonna think about it. No, they run the ball just good enough to where you go, crap, I gotta worry about stopping that one or two runs they do in the shotgun. That's gonna be an issue for us when I have to worry about all this other stuff.


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[Assistant] One of the big keys to the game, Mike, for me, will be McDermott and Leslie Frazier. And just, you set it in the draft today. The mind games and things they'll have to do with Andy Reid.


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[Assistant] They're gonna have to try to be able to fool them with some pre-snap looks like, you know, Hey, we're down in here. You're not going to run the ball against this look. Don't run this ball. And then, you know, there's my home's whitey and all of a sudden they drop back and it's, Oh God, I checked to the pass already. Damn. It was too late.


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[Assistant] They're gonna have to do some of that and take some chances and maybe even void some areas at times to just go, okay, we were worried about this and we stopped this and yeah, we might have cheated and left this area wide open, but


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[Assistant] We did it unexpectedly and calculated to where maybe you didn't notice it. Those are the teams that have success against the Chiefs though.


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[Assistant] I think, I think in my heart of hearts, I think they're, they're gonna be too scared to play that way.


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[Assistant] I think they're gonna look at it and just go, you know what, we are who we are.


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[Assistant] I'm not gonna go down, given the ball to the running backs. If we go down, we're going down with Mahomes and Tyreek and Travis Kelsey, and I just expect them to play that style of football. I do. Not that it's gonna be a drop back pass every play or anything like that, but I think it's gonna be


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[Assistant] 4 to 1, you know, pass-run ratio, something like that, in that range. And, uh, yeaah, I think that's what will be different. That's why, I don't know, in my mind, I'm expecting a little bit more of a shootout, certainly in this game, as compared to the first time around.


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[Assistant] Well, yeah, and that's exactly right. And the team's built around the offense. That's where the money is. That's the unit that's gotta win the game. That's one of the greatest units in the sport.


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[Assistant] That's the unit that can put pressure on the other team to make the other team have to play away. They don't want to play. And that's where I, that's where I'm getting at, Mike, to, to kind of what you're saying. We're, we're, we're kind of working, you know, simpatico here because the first time around,


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[Assistant] I think it was the most, Mahomes was under the center and they were in eye formation and stuff, and they really played right into the hands of the Bills. The Bills were probably like, thank God.


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[Assistant] Fine. Yeaah, we don't have to worry about. Nicole Harmon and Tyreek split over here. And Kelsey and Sammy Walken split over here.


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[Assistant] Now you're in one of these normal formations. We can kind of disguise because people are packed in here a little bit more and maybe trick you and do those. It's hard to be tricky or show an all out blitz, right? And say, okay, I want to show an all out blitz and shotgun, right? And then yet there's Tyree kill out there in the slot and you're like, wait,


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[Assistant] My safety is up there by the line of scrimmage trying to show all our blitz and I'm gonna say set hut and I want him to run back and play the deep half while Tyreek Hill runs down the field. Like that's where I think the Kansas City can put a lot more pressure on the Bills and I expect them to do that this time around.


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[Assistant] I'll take advantage of a weakness I see right now, but I got a lot of other ways I'd like to attack Sean McDermott.


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[Assistant] And I'll keep those in the vault for later on. I wouldn't be shocked with that. Hey, they did what they had to do right there at that point of the year to win the football game. That's how they looked at it. This is a different team right now and it is a different circumstance with win or go home. And I have a hard time thinking like a guy like Andy Reid is going to sit there.


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[Assistant] And I think he'd be able to rest a lot easier on Monday if he lost going down with...


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[Assistant] We threw it and we tacked and did everything like that. And if it was the other way around where he tried to play balance and run the ball, I think that'll make him not sleep all next week. If they lose the game that way around, he's going to go, damn, the hell was I thinking? I got Patrick Mahomes and these guys and all this money on the offense. Why would I let them off the hook? So I think we see the


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[Assistant] Pretty much aggressive air show, uh, from the Chiefs offense.


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[Assistant] Okay, I just want to say this. Good. Okay. The Bill's offense, I don't ex- they did themselves an injustice too.


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[Assistant] They played a style like we just talked about too, where they're, we're running the ball on third and one and fourth and one and running the ball on first down. Hey, screw all that. Okay. You're not a running team.


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[Assistant] Move on. And I think they've realized that. You know, I think they realized that around the Seattle Seahawks game where they just said, Hey, the hell with it. We're going to throw the ball every play. Josh Allen told me last week, he goes, day ball comes in on some Wednesdays and Thursdays and goes, I don't think we're going to run it much this week. We might throw it every play. You know, they're going to go with what brought them there too.


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[Assistant] And I think they're, they're gonna go down swinging with their weapons, their offense, the strength of their football team. And honestly, I think they, a little bit like we just talked about the other way around, the Chiefs are a feast or famine. They either blitz everybody or they drop everybody out.


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[Assistant] The first time around, the Bills tried to be like balanced, eye formation, we're gonna run the ball a little too and keep my homes on the sideline, and they had a hard time getting in rhythm as an offense. So,


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[Assistant] You know, I think you put more stress on the Chiefs D when you go, Hey, I'm in the shotgun. You got to worry about Josh Allen decide runs, right? You got to worry about containing me in the pocket and you got to cover all these suckers out here who could beat man to man and zone and do all that stuff. So that's where I think we're going to see both teams go. Wait, we got studs at quarterback.


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[Assistant] The quarterbacks are the reason we're here and we're going down with them having the ball in their hand all game long. And I think the Bills can make some big plays on the, uh, on the Chiefs these certainly, but I would think that's going to be their approach this time around too. Okay. So can they win? Make your pick. They can win.


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[Assistant] Yes, but I'm not going to pick them to win. I'm not. I mean, the Chiefs, just like you said, I picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl before the year.


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[Assistant] I'm not gonna pick the Chiefs to lose one of these games until I see it. I'm not. Now we know, yeaah, I think they can lose again. We saw a clip today of Chris Jones basically saying the Bills are the Chiefs from two years ago. They can score at will and the quarterback's awesome and all that. So it's dangerous, yes.


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[Assistant] But the Chiefs, Mahomes, their offense, and to me, here's the thing.


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[Assistant] Just the three playmakers, four playmakers they have on defense that the Bills don't have. I think that's what Chris Jones, Tyrone Matthew, you know, uh, uh, what's the hell's the deep- Frank Clark.


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[Assistant] You know, they have some ballers, just for lack of a better way to say it, that can make some plays in some big moments. Score. 35-31 Chiefs, sorry about that. Ooh, ooh.


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[Assistant] It's a tough one. They both, both make big plays in the pass game. You know, I think this weekend we're seeing four of the six best quarterbacks against the Blitz in the sport. I'm going to go with Rogers in this one because I just don't think Green Bay is going to be able to run the ball and they're going to have to throw it to win the football game and move the ball. So I'll go Rogers.


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[Assistant] Chris, do you? I do too. I do. Yes, I do. I don't, the, the Bucks are not a team that is into like doubling people and doing that a whole lot.


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[Assistant] Feed that guy offense. I mean, Rogers, they feed him. If they got the look, they don't, they're like, Hey, it ain't broke. Let's, let's not fix it. Let's just keep throwing it to him. So because of what we just talked about too, I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball. I'm going yes on, on Adams having 80 plus and one TD.


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[Assistant] This is a tough one. Because I do think the Packers are going to be compromised in pass defense because they're going to get worried about getting crushed in the run game. I'm going to go with Mike Evans though. Because I just think...


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[Assistant] You know, Godwin being in the slot, the middle of the field, there might be able just more ways within the run game defense too to pay attention to that. I think Evans is going to see a lot of just one-on-one, mono-e-mono on the outside. And I think Brady's just going to be like, you know, we're better than you, even though Jair Alexander's awesome, he's bigger than you and just as fast.


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[Assistant] And they'll just kind of peck away at that matchup. I'm gonna go Evans.


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[Assistant] I'm going under. I gotta see it to believe it to run on this bucks day.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go over and that's why another reason, Mike, we just, when we broke down the game, I just go, you know, that's why being in the eye formation and them trying to be balanced is just, I don't like that attack that they did the first time around too.


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[Assistant] Shotgun digs as deep. Okay, John Brown's deep. Cole Beasley's working the middle. There's all these lanes for him to scramble and run too. That's part of the greatness of their team. I'm going to go over there for the 32 and a half.


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[Assistant] It's either Hill or Diggs. I think they're going to try really hard to take Kelsey away and double him in a lot of big situations. I'm going to go with Diggs. I'm going to go with Diggs because, you know, there's just, there's more weaponry to be passed around by the Chiefs. To me, Diggs is the guy that Allen is always looking for a hundred percent of the time. So I'll go Diggs.


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[Assistant] I'm really torn with this one. I don't know which way to go. I really don't. Uhm, I guess what I'm gonna do...


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go with Kansas City. I-I-I am. I know I picked the Bucks to win by two points, but I guess I feel like Aaron Rodgers can pull off the upset maybe more than I think the Bills and Josh Allen can, and that's my logic, so I'm taking the Chiefs in those three points.


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[Assistant] Hi, I'm Mike Tirico and thanks for watching. Make sure to hit subscribe for the latest news and highlights from NBC Sports.


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[Assistant] Actually that one time I went down and through with your dad, your brother Matt was there. Right. And like anytime your dad would get like far enough away so he couldn't hear us, Matt would be like, don't let him get too far in your head, Matt.


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[Assistant] So as for today, just for context, normally these notes I have in front of me are a page, maybe a page, and like half on another.


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[Assistant] I never got the sense that you were thinking about changing, but it is nice to pile up a lot more hits than misses in the previous drafts. No doubt, right? No doubt. It helps.


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[Assistant] I've responded to people by saying that, you know, ego is a good thing as long as you have a work ethic and treat people well. And Chris has a lot of ego wrapped up in how he ranks these quarterbacks as he should. And it's got nothing to do with


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[Assistant] Making a sounding alarm or getting people to follow you on Twitter. It's a hundred percent.


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[Assistant] Zach Wilson almost lost his starting job last year. There's the fact that his play improved dramatically this season playing a weaker than normal BYU schedule due to COVID-19 Bobby Udall.


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[Assistant] Because it is very unique to have a guy a year ago who had to win his job back with the kind of talent that puts him probably up to the number two pick in the draft. Even if, even if the coach, I don't even know the names, even if the coach isn't the best in the country, wouldn't they be able to recognize that kind of talent and say, this guy's starting no matter what, we gotta figure it out?


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[Assistant] You addressed the fact that he had to win his job back maybe or to whatever level that's true. Right. Uhm, how about this one, the torn labrum? This comes up a lot. Yeaah. Does that injury bother you? It does. That he had last year.


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[Assistant] I don't think there's a quarterback coach around NFL or college that wouldn't sacrifice five or six miles per hour of speed for better anticipation and better accuracy.


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[Assistant] Right, it does bring up an interesting point about this year's process without a follow up combine about the medical because you know that would have been addressed in so many different ways this year. How are they going to get okay with that?


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[Assistant] With that question, I guess I just have to watch this film and say, you know what, it doesn't look like his shoulder hurts too much.


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[Assistant] So here's the money question. This came in a number of different ways, but this one sums it up well. Valley Boys Sports. Chris, be honest, if you're Trent Baulke, GM for the Jaguars, are you really taking Zach Wilson number one overall?


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[Assistant] Let's, let's look at this situation if we can. It's kind of a juxtaposition here, but we're talking about the Jags, but let's try and think of the, in the abstract too, because I don't want to call any one person out. How often do you think it happens where a GM, a team is facing a giant pick like this in the draft?


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[Assistant] And it is a safer pick to take the guy that everybody thinks is going to be awesome.


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[Assistant] And they all think this. What if this doesn't work out? What if it doesn't work? If Zach Wilson didn't work and they took him, people are probably going to get fired. If Trevor Lawrence doesn't work out, the one they were supposed to take. No doubt. It's disappointing. Safer. Sets them back, but they'll probably keep their job.


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[Assistant] Everybody had a number one. I think about that. I sensed it when I was working all those years covering the draft at NFL Network. Do you think that's a real thing that GMs deal with? A hundred percent. A hundred percent.


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[Assistant] Good morning, Zach Wilson. I had this one circled since this morning when I printed this out. This is from at Metro G10. If you are the Jets and they have the second overall pick in the draft, would you trade Deshaun Watson for Zach Wilson? Pardon me.


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[Assistant] Would you trade for Deshaun Watson or would you draft Zach Wilson? Right.


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[Assistant] Moving on to Trevor Lawrence, your second-ranked quarterback at Frank2782. Do any of these QBs remind you of past greats? Trevor Lawrence looks like a mixture of luck and patent.


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[Assistant] Man, I like the fact that you went ice cube, I think, 1993. Check yourself. Before you wreck yourself. Yeaah. Are you 12 years old?


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[Assistant] Pete says correct. Good, good. Okay. Mac Jones. Lot of Mac Jones questions. Okay. Alright. Yep. Let's start here. Garnett West. You're usually very high on physical ability, but somehow you give Mac Jones a pass. You had him as your third best quarterback. He makes a, makes a parallel to thinking Kirk Cousins is his ceiling. Right.


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[Assistant] People bring up quite a bit and we've kind of laughed about it here. I think you and Florio talked about it. The fact that he doesn't look good in his uniform. Yeaah. I think, I think it's more that this narrative that he's okay but not great.


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[Assistant] Has to do with the fact that Tua had very good numbers last year. There's no doubt. And there's just an assumption made. Oh, there's Devontae Smith. There's Jalen Waddle. All the quarterbacks there win and put up great numbers. He's just the next in line. Yeah. I would challenge anybody.


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[Assistant] Right. Which was surprising. Right! Because usually guys will play it more down the middle because they were both their teammates and probably like them both.


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[Assistant] I would challenge anybody if they had time just to watch him. And I'm going to say nine times out of ten, people are going to turn it off and say, okay, he's, he's better than what I gave him credit for to Alabama. I do think it's a legitimate question about how he moves in the pocket. Can, you know, third down in six, is he one of these guys who can get you seven yards?


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[Assistant] Even though I'm on board with you, with all the Mac Jones stuff, I do say, you know what, I don't know if you want somebody who can really run and move around.


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[Assistant] We're moments away from getting into Kellen Mond, who you have as your number four quarterback. But one more about Mack Jones as they kind of go together, as Mack's at three. Isaac Benia asks, what elite traits does Mack Jones have over Kellen Mond?


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[Assistant] I think you've done a good job of these last couple sessions of saying, I like Trevor Lawrence a lot. I just don't think he's the best one in the draft. So I think we have kind of turned the corner from Mac Jones to Kellen Moss.


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[Assistant] You brought up the offense. I've heard the name Jimbo Fisher. Yeaah. At least once from at Bradley Clem 3. Regarding Kellen Mott, it seems every quarterback Jimbo Fisher has goes in the first round. Jamarcus Russell, Christian Ponder, E.J. Emanuel, Jameis Winston, but the only one with any success at all in the NFL is Winston. Is that a concern for you?


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[Assistant] Kyle Jaspers, and you kinda started to go down here, I'm just gonna continue it. I'm a huge fan of the pod, respect your process. You said the one thing you wish Kellen Maughan did more was play backyard football. What is more easily fixed in the NFL? Maughan's creative ability, off-schedule throwing, or Justin Fields' mechanical issues?


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[Assistant] Last week you said that the guy in front of you, Mac Jones, you'd be comfortable with him going in the top ten. Yeah. You think he should. Yeah. Not asking for a team or a specific spot. Where do you think Mon with that talent belongs in the first round?


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[Assistant] That's a team between 15 and 20 that might be in the quarterback game. Just throw one out. 19 Washington.


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[Assistant] 20 Chicago. This is where he's diff- now, this is- Chicago at 20 is really interesting just cause they're in the whole Russell Wilson thing right now. Be a tough trade for them to pull off.


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[Assistant] Here's a what if. What if at 12, San Francisco.


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[Assistant] What if John Lange, Kyle Shanahan said, we are taking a quarterback at 12. Top three are off the board. So Mac Jones goes in the top 10. They're sitting there at 12 and your top three are not available. Mond at 12?


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[Assistant] Well, for today, it's gonna go to your fifth quarterback, Justin Fields. Yeah. Vish Kumaran says, it feels like Justin Fields is similar to your evaluation of Sam Darnold back in 2018. From the standpoint of struggles in the pocket, has mechanical issues, but is still a surefire, surefire first round pick. Is that fair?


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[Assistant] What's an ideal team or system for fields to land with in order to overcome these drawbacks?


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[Assistant] What percentage, and we don't need any kind of names here, what percentage of buildings in the NFL, the 32, have a quarterback coach or an offensive coordinator who can really take someone like this with all this talent and experience and take him one standard deviation better with his mechanics?


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[Assistant] I'm just gonna write it down. I'm gonna give an order or a range and see if it's what you hit.


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[Assistant] I want to point out too that it's bad to be a long strider as it relates to the accuracy because when you take that long stride what happens? Your weight comes forward. Exactly. And the ball's back. There's too many moving parts. It's difficult to control.


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[Assistant] Alright, your sixth quarterback, Trey Lance. Yeaah. At Taylor, what is Taylor's last name here? Taylor Pia? Plemons. Taylor Plemons, you know Taylor?


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[Assistant] And he is so much better than his competition so many times. No doubt about it. It's like watching the sixth grader at recess with the third graders. There's no doubt. Which is ultimately a compliment, but it's hard to evaluate.


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[Assistant] I keep seeing Lance getting mocked in my Carolina Panthers. They picked eighth. Should I be concerned or excited?


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[Assistant] We already talked about the Jets too. I think you want them to take Zach Wilson. That would make perfect sense. Right. Carolina comes up a lot as well as a trigger point for quarterbacks that early. Who would you like to see end up at eight?


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[Assistant] One more, and you kind of touched on this last week, but it comes up a lot with Trey Lance. This is from Richard in Tucson. Hey Chris, do you have Trey Lance that low due to a lack of competition and because of a season that never happened?


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[Assistant] So that's a little bit, a lot of bit on some of these guys in your top six.


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[Assistant] Neither are very mobile, but Trask is bigger and seems to be able to stand in the pocket longer. Kinda like Big Ben, Trask also did more with less.


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[Assistant] This is the first quarterback we've talked about in Two Pods 2. You're kinda hoisting a red flag. Like the other guys, you've had to explain why Trevor Lawrence is 2 instead of 1 and why you have Mack up at 3, but it hasn't been mostly negative about any of the guys until now.


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[Assistant] Have you had anybody inside the league call and say, hey, what are you seeing here that I'm not? Because I kind of like this.


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[Assistant] Let's go to Stanford on Davis Mills at Harry Gassioni. Might be from North Jersey. You're neck in the woods there. I know he may not be a top five quarterback, but thoughts on Davis Mills from Stanford. He has a lot of intrigue around the league.


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[Assistant] I would say the hard G or J sounds easier. I think I'm right. Alex Hill asked, can you explain the lack of buzz for Sam Ellinger? Well, he's...


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[Assistant] Wake Forest, Jamie Newman at Vega K says, I feel like this class can produce two starters between rounds three and five. Maybe Newman from Wake Forest?


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[Assistant] I have some others that would fall under the miscellaneous title, but I think we're going to talk some quarterbacks. We're going to hit some quarterbacks on Wednesday. Might give you a rest for a couple days.


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[Assistant] That's why it's impossible. My youngest son threw something at me. He said, did you know that you have a better chance?


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[Assistant] Pick every beach in the world of, of locating one pebble. Like you're gonna pick one pebble that you selected before. Better chance of doing that than having a perfect bracket in, in the NCAA tournament.


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[Assistant] You have to! I mean, safeties and corners, I was thinking about what a massive challenge it is to rate this group. I love comparisons. So, let's say the NFL season, full swing.


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[Assistant] You have like 14 games to get ready for if we're here on a Monday. Compare that workload and that prep to watching all the safeties and corners.


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[Assistant] Rashad Bateman isn't a great athlete. 6'2", 210, ran a 4'39", sounds alright to me. Yeaah. Route running on par with Devontae Smith.


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[Assistant] I respect Sims a lot, but I really disagree here. Where'd you have him ranked?


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[Assistant] Staying in the Big 10, it's nice that you mentioned how Pro Day 40 times are a little bit skewed. Sure. Rondale Moore yesterday, Bump Jazz says, does Rondale Moore's 40 times change things unofficially 4.29? I mean, it makes me feel good.


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[Assistant] Alright, Prospect Rundown presented by Applebee's for the 2021 Draft Corner Rankings. What up Applebee's? Yeah, look at you!


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[Assistant] I guess so. No, I'm not. Let's begin actually by taking a peek at last year's top five corners. Yeah. And we're always learning. We're always thinking about ways and what we did last time. How can it help us for this time?


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[Assistant] Uh, you had, you were a little bit more down on Jeff Okuda than some others. You liked AJ Terrell more than some others. What's something from last year's evaluation of corners that you applied to this year's kind of as a


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[Assistant] Hopefully that answered it. I asked people to send me some questions yesterday knowing we're going to talk about course and safety. Good one here. When I was thinking about what are you looking for in a typical cornerback at Chris Voteman asks, is it more important to be an excellent man corner since it's somewhat of a skill you have to have to be born with?


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[Assistant] You pointed that out a moment ago. Or is being competent in zones more important since it comes down to a lot of awareness? I like that word. Which is harder to teach once you've been drafted.


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[Assistant] Alright, ranking corners of this class, you already said, I have a question right here, overall thoughts, you already said that you like the class but don't love it. Yeaah. When it comes to corners, so we're gonna go from the, from the lower ranking to the top. Right. Top five here for this group, so at number five, who do we have? Well, oh, well, yeaah, are we going five here or six?


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[Assistant] I think that we have, I have five listed here if you would like to add a six.


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[Assistant] Isn't that even more important now with all the catch quick release out to a Tyree kill or somebody where these guys have to tackle more than maybe?


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[Assistant] He's a baller and he was fun to watch. Do you think it's a team by team value of how much they think it's important to be able to do the off and the bump? I think that. Or is that universal? Like we gotta have that no matter what the team is.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think it probably helped you a lot to watch Terrell go up against somebody like Jamar Chase. Really gave you real conviction to how much you liked him because he's up against a potential future top five kind of pick. There's no doubt. But you have Aaron Robinson now, Central Florida.


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[Assistant] I hear ya. Maybe he didn't go against someone even that close to good. So how do you get the conviction on this guy when he might not have gone up against a high pick the entire season?


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[Assistant] Sounds like you're describing, uh, first round talents. Definitely. At corner. Teens or 20s, the more likely home?


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[Assistant] Not exactly a household name, so it's good to get to know him that way with all that detail. The player we have at three and the player you have at three certainly is a household name from Alabama.


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[Assistant] Patrick Sertane, the second, or Sertane. You definitely hear them both. Saw him yesterday, depending on when you're listening to it. That was Tuesday at the Alabama Pro Day. He ran, again, Pro Day times. He was in, I believe, in the low 4-4s. But tell us about why you have him at 3.


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[Assistant] Thinking about 10, thinking about the Cowboys, Injim Chao with a good question on Twitter for me. At number 10 overall, should the Cowboys pair Surtan with Diggs? It makes sense. It does.


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[Assistant] I think it's important to point out because people are going to see that you have him at three instead of one or two and be like, oh, how can he do that? You just said you think he's a top 10 corner. So the actual rankings a little lower than you may see other places, but you believe this is a really, really good. I think there's a really good player. I mean,


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[Assistant] They're 4-3 type guys. Is it more important for a corner than a receiver to have that top end speed?


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[Assistant] It's not easy for either one, but if there's a speed deficient receiver, I think there's more, more ways for that person to find a way to be successful in the NFL than a speed deficient corner.


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[Assistant] I was going to ask you, because I know you liked AJ Terrell a lot. We talked about him a couple of minutes ago as your number two corner last year. Yeah. If you liked him better than last year's number two, but you, you like him even better than last year's number one.


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[Assistant] Great detail there. An awesome setup to number one. Because if I can back up a little bit.


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[Assistant] Your number third, your number three corner you think is a legit top ten pick. So that's really good. Yeah, top fifteen for sure. Your number two corner. Okay, top fifteen. Your number two corner, you would have had number one in last year's class and had six go in the first round. So Caleb Farley from Virginia Tech must be awfully good if you have him as your best one. He's a star.


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[Assistant] So if, if the Jaguars go Trevor Lawrence, if the Jets keep that pick and go with your guy from BYU, Zach Wilson, should the Dolphins take him at three?


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[Assistant] If, if he's there at four for Atlanta and they decide that they're not going quarterback there, would you like to see him be paired up with Terrell?


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[Assistant] I wouldn't be opposed to that at all. I really wouldn't. Let's back up to the actual skills you saw on tape. So Tyson Campbell, you complimented him for being able to match up with Devontae Smith and also to do well against the Florida tight end cow pits. Did you see Farley going big receiver, slot receiver, physical tight end? He's on the outside mostly.


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[Assistant] I don't think it's crazy. I'm trying to remember South Bend two years ago because Virginia Tech came to town. Was he against Claypool?


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[Assistant] Let's go ahead and recap it with a list of his top corners.


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[Assistant] What I like here as, as your partner, you didn't couch it at all. It's one thing to say, hey, Farley's number one. You said that you love him as much as any corner you've seen recently that he's Jalen Ramsey, Ramsey type. Right. So ballsy job of putting it out there. Not only is your number one guy, but taking it beyond that with how much you like. Thank you. Thank you.


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[Assistant] Even the people who are really good at this like to say


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[Assistant] I respect that you're not, that you're not doing that. Thanks. So. Thanks. Safeties. Yeah. Top five safety.


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[Assistant] Prospects. I think we're going to take a peek at what you had last year. I know you love this group from this year, but last year,


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[Assistant] Antoine Winfield, I guess that was a pretty good job. He was, he played just a little role there for the Buccaneers. Oh, just a little role?


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[Assistant] Same question I asked you about Corners, kinda zooming out here before we get into the weeds. What did you learn from judging this group last year to how it can apply to doing a nice job again this year?


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[Assistant] Different kind of skills you're looking for, but just as a class I get the feeling that you like the safety group as a whole better than the corner.


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[Assistant] What? Put yourself out on a limb again. Number five, Sean Davis, Florida.


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[Assistant] Okay, you let me know when we cross into the category of, we're now talking about first round picks. Yeah, not quite there yet. Number four, TCU. This is going to be the only name we get from TCU, which is kind of surprising in the safety group. And it's not the name a lot of people would expect more than that in a bit, but at four are Darius Washington.


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[Assistant] Was he mostly like the center fielder and a cover one or playing half?


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[Assistant] So you have a physical, undersized, versatile corner can do it all. Sounds a little bit like Winfield last year.


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[Assistant] If you're ever on a field, a field level at an NFL game, the collisions that make you say, wow, this is more violent than I thought, almost always involve safeties. No doubt. They're the, they're the... To support your, uh, kinda how you're describing how they have to be. How they have to be wired.


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[Assistant] I think, I think at this position as much as any position and the Buccaneers and their GM Jason Light highlighted this with their postseason run. They had playing on their rookie contracts, their entire starting defensive backfield, second, third and fourth round picks. They didn't have a single first rounder.


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[Assistant] And those guys all played really well. That was the strength of that group. So I bring up the Izzy of First Router because it's one conversation. Teams are looking for starters, uh, rounds two, three, four, five. No doubt.


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[Assistant] Since we're hitting baseball season, sounds like a batter you would sell. You don't have to hit a home run. Hitting a single... No, you don't have to have a highlight tackle here. Exactly right. Just get them down here.


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[Assistant] We stay in the Pac-12 and it's good you brought up, uh, Buddha Baker because we're going to get a comparison here in a moment. But Elijah Moldin from UW at number two for your safety.


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[Assistant] Like he can close the gap in a hurry. Eli Miller asks, who was the better prospect coming out of college? Buddha Baker or Elijah Molden?


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[Assistant] Let, uh, Pete's telling me he had that injury in October. Okay, so let's say, let's say you're the GM of the team, late teens, early twenties, nobody's taken a safety yet. You love Elijah Moldin. You also like Cisco a lot, but he's coming off that ACL. Yeah, I'm taking Cisco. You're taking Cisco anyway.


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[Assistant] Hey, bottom line, if your team needs a safety and they're willing to take a, or use a pick, rounds one, two, or three, we've got some pretty good ones here. Yeah. Uh, Sims 2021 draft safety rankings. That was the Prospect Rundown presented by...


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[Assistant] Applebee's. What up Applebee's? There it is.


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[Assistant] Healing good in the neighborhood. So I want to get to a couple of names. We might have mentioned them a little bit, but there are some names that people might have expected to be on your list of safety's that did not show up, right? So at corner.


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[Assistant] No J.C. Horne from South Carolina in your top five? No. No Asante Samuel Jr. from Florida State?


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[Assistant] A couple of the homey questions on corners at Gino Namath. Thoughts on which corners would be the best fit?


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[Assistant] Couple of quick questions about your list. Uh, thoughts on which corners would be the best fit for teams running that Seattle scheme you talk about quite a bit.


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[Assistant] Your top five corners, you had a Debo at five, Robinson four, Surtan three, and Campbell two, and Farley one.


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[Assistant] Let's move into safeties and a couple names not on your list. A surprise that Trayvon Marig from TCU. You didn't have him one through five.


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[Assistant] Who has to have the acceleration and lack of regard for his body.


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[Assistant] And if that's something that stands out on film, I would imagine other people are going to see that too.


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[Assistant] Here's the most important question. You have two notebooks and you have a bunch of yellow, loose-leaf legal pad paper over there. Who went on, who got in the notebooks and who's on the loose paper over there?


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[Assistant] Okay, so are there any other safeties? Well, well, there's like- Pete wants to hear about


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[Assistant] You said that right away how much you like it. That someone who didn't make your top five list.


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[Assistant] So we've done this, we've done this a couple years. I think this is the number one podcast for number of notes brought to the table. I think so.


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[Assistant] He literally will just go from here and go, uh, I'm Cam Newton and I'm going to break this ball and I'm so strong it doesn't matter.


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[Assistant] Is so off the charts, I think, when we talk about quarterbacks. And...


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[Assistant] We'll never get people to believe or to understand everything that's involved about the team, the coaching, the system, and all that. And I'll give one real quick one. Ryan Tannehill, when he is, I've said before, when he was in Miami,


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[Assistant] I covered them a lot or enough to always watch all their games. And Barry Jackson, a writer down in Miami.


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[Assistant] Would always call me, what do you think, Ryan Tan, hell, and I go, Barry, there's many problems down there.


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[Assistant] And I just talked to somebody who was in the Miami organization when he was down there going, I went to practice every day.


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[Assistant] I never thought for once Ryan Tannehill was our problem. I'm going damn, he throws the ball well. And as I've told you guys, and I know I've told Christopher, Dan Marino says to me once,


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[Assistant] And we see now, Christopher, I know you talked about the other day, it was great points, that he goes to a team that's better.


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[Assistant] And all of a sudden, oh, Ryan Tanahal's really good now. He really matured. No, you dummies. He was doing it in Miami. Nobody paid attention. And they never threw it down the field either. When they did, he usually hit them.


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[Assistant] But it was like twice every game they'd try a pass more than 5 yards. So uhm, okay, that's my first thought.


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[Assistant] He's got this guy. I know Patrick Rahomes does it by himself. I understand.


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[Assistant] Uh, you know, yes, they do it by themselves. Uh, but Ryan, he's got all this help. And I actually looked at their roster a little bit and I just go, woof, it's thin. I mean, my god.


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[Assistant] But man, they're always on the edge. They can lose to anybody. Yeaah, right. That's the way I look at them still to this day.


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[Assistant] Baker Mayfield's real. I think that I have no doubts about him. He's gonna be scrutinized more than ever because now he's got more and we're gonna, you know, he's gotta get all these things done or whatever.


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[Assistant] Uh, people still can't get over probably the fact that he turned things around so much last year. Yes, coaching, that had something to do with it.


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[Assistant] But also I think he came to the realization that I have to, you know, straighten myself out, which I think he did personally, physically.


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[Assistant] Christopher, we always talk about this stuff, you know, when it comes to, he's making the list. Hey, look, Baker Mayfield is athletic, he's quick.


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[Assistant] He dropped back at the end of the year in many games and single-handedly won the games for the Cleveland Browns by throwing strikes.


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[Assistant] But he had great control of the football and threw it with tremendous power. And the year before, he, the team was a mess.


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[Assistant] Couldn't throw it hard enough. I mean, I was like, damn Baker, what, and just striding like he was six foot eight.


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[Assistant] You know, so, hey, when you do that, when you try to overthrow, as you know, and I know, son,


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[Assistant] You're gonna miss high a lot. And that's what he did. And he, he really, he fixed all that and...


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[Assistant] And of course he's quick enough and fast enough all those things to make all those plays as we talk about off schedule.


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[Assistant] Yes, he can reset quickly. His first move is very quick. I mean, I'd like to hear your thought. When you, we, you hear this about Baker Mayfield, you kind of go...


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[Assistant] And it drives me crazy and I know it does my son. Oh, the first narrative. Oh my god.


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[Assistant] Well, you know, let's, it's amazing. We draw this conclusion and thought.


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[Assistant] That we just can't get off of and can't change our mind even though we're presented with facts.


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[Assistant] Facts, facts, more facts. Oh, more facts here. Uh, season of facts. But we can't get off of it. And I still hear it. And you know, I'm a big watcher of TV as I work during the days or whatever.


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[Assistant] Their first thought, well I can't be wrong, my first thought, I'm always, I don't know what it is, but it's amazing. Do I change my opinion? All the time.


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[Assistant] Because when I get more facts, I change what I think and get more information. But it is, that's, I'm glad you said it because I think it still permeates through all of the media, writers, and especially TV personalities that talk


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[Assistant] I'm taking Baker, you know, I, Joe Burrow is never going to turn into that throw that you talked about to make these screaming dynamic throws in a game.


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[Assistant] Uh, it's, it shows itself in football games all year, every game, all the time. And you know, Joe Burrow's motion and the way he plays, it is about rhythm.


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[Assistant] About the fact that he is a much better athlete than people can see. It's just like you said, very slippery.


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[Assistant] Uh, subtle, we just don't realize what it, you know, what he's doing. But I think the fact that Baker, I think is a little quicker maybe, whatever, but.


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[Assistant] His arm is what would make the difference for me. So five years from now, if I said, okay, I would, I'm, I'm a bet on Baker Mayfield. I bet on both.


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[Assistant] Uh, but I like Baker Mayfield's overall talent to make big plays with his arm.


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[Assistant] Where the league gives you lots of opportunities, especially with wide receivers now. And I'll say this about both of them.


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[Assistant] When they walk in the room at their complexes, everybody knows their demands.


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[Assistant] Number one, and we don't even have a two. He's such a dynamic force in his personality and how he leads people and how he acts and people follow his directions.


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[Assistant] You know, that's, that's the, here's the thing, okay, so you said that that's important. Why? Because...


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[Assistant] When you have these guys with tremendous arms on it, what it does...


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[Assistant] It, the playbook, we could design more downfield throws and get those plays, open up the defense more, all that. When you, when the guy, and,


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[Assistant] You know, yea, their plays down the field last year were soft tosses down the sidelines. But you didn't see a lot of seam throws, you know, in between defenders just ripping it in.


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[Assistant] That was, that's just not Joe Burrow's game. It wasn't at LSU, but I think he realizes that's gotta go up another level and I'm sure it will. If you're a good NFL quarterback, you're gonna make adjustments throwing the football to control it better and to know that I need a little more pep on it. How do I do it? Easy to figure out. They, they should be able to do those things and it'll be interesting to see Joe Burrow this year.


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[Assistant] Hey, I hope he's 100% when the season starts, where it's not an issue.


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[Assistant] I came off a knee injury one year. I gotta be honest, it was not an issue for me. You know, I had surgery, missed a whole year. And when I got to training camp, my leg felt great.


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[Assistant] You know, moved around and played pretty well in the preseason with the two. So, uh, we'll see how it goes for him.


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[Assistant] I'll just say this, you know, your first round quarterback, on a bad day, you go out in the field, if you got any sense and any eye for it, you go, well I don't know, but man, he can throw, he's impressive. I don't care what the numbers say. So, they're not saying that in Green Bay, so I think that's a worry.


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[Assistant] Whatever I see on TV, I watch, I see the same guy I saw at Utah, Utah State. Uh, you know, the same motion.


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[Assistant] Uh, just little things, I just go, not correct it, and uhm.


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[Assistant] You know, I hate, I hate numbers that come out at OTAs and mini camp and camp oh so and so. I really do hate it. They oughta just say nobody's allowed to write it.


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[Assistant] Let's just go by what our eye tells us and stuff like that. Because numbers can be misleading, and uh, how they practice, how hard was the practice, I don't, all those things.


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[Assistant] Which I almost could see just watching that little bit we saw on TV and everything is the same thing it was in college. Just not a consistent.


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[Assistant] And that's why I didn't think he was, I did not have him high on my list.


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[Assistant] Uh, didn't think he was a first rounder, nothing against him. I think, yeah, potentially there's a lot of explosion there, but it's not happening so far. And everything I heard from Green Bay last year, what I hear now and all that tells me.


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[Assistant] It's not happening in practice and they're not seeing it enough to think that wow, we really got something special here.


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[Assistant] Uh, right now I would say no. No. I, I don't think he is. As far as what he's doing. Can he change it? Yeaah, I think he, look, he's built to throw.


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[Assistant] He's got big hands, I don't care, but I mean he's got a little whip to him.


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[Assistant] It's, it's, it's there. I think it's there, but it's gotta be fixed. I don't know who he threw with this offseason or whatever.


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[Assistant] You know, I don't know. I'm not gonna look into it cause I don't care.


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[Assistant] But, I sure didn't see any difference in what I've seen on TV that I saw in college as far. And a natural thrower?


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[Assistant] You know, how do I describe it? Somebody just pick some up and throw the hell out of it. Whatever it is. He's a baseball. He was a shortstop. He was a third baseman. He was pitching. He was the catcher who could throw everybody out second.


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[Assistant] He can stand there and hit a golf ball as far as he wants. It might be, you know, 50 yards off line, but he can swing and hit it. And he can shoot hoop.


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[Assistant] You know, I had a quarterback, offensive coordinator once tell me that. And, and, cause I, I'm not gonna get into names, but I'm telling you, he goes,


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[Assistant] Hey, I didn't like this guy at all coming out of college, and he went in the first round, and I go, why?


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[Assistant] He can't play basketball, he can't shoot, he can't play golf, and he can't, you know, he went on a-


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[Assistant] Just killing the first round quarterback. And I just went, man, you know, that is really something. I actually told that to a head coach, that whole scenario. And you know what the head coach told me? He goes, man, that is a great point. And he goes, I'm never going to forget that as long as, you know, he was a head coach at the time.


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[Assistant] Because that makes sense, and it's gotta be real.


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[Assistant] When I used to go out to Lake Tahoe and play in the golf tournament out there.


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[Assistant] Not that all the quarterbacks were good golfers, but they all had one thing in common. I thought I could hit it far.


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[Assistant] Holy Christ, everybody was just crushing the golf ball. And that's because it's just easy for them. You know, it's, hitting the golf ball is like throwing underhanded.


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[Assistant] Whatever it is, Aaron Rodgers made a great adjustment in his throwing motion. I see all these guys.


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[Assistant] Thinking about it, what can make it better? What can make it more efficient?


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[Assistant] Tom Brady we know, it just goes on and on. I see it, you know, guys, like I said, they do it because, uh, out of necessity. Because controlling that damn ball, as I've said many times, gives you confidence, changes your personality when you know you can control it.


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[Assistant] Makes you a better decision maker because you believe what you see and you let it go. And it just, it just keeps compiling because of that. Jordan Love, I guarantee you, threw some balls out in the flat for a two yard game.


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[Assistant] Where there was a guy open over the middle coming across full speed, probably 20 yards, he goes, ah, I'm not trying that. And he threw it out in the flat and everybody goes, oh, good completion.


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[Assistant] Or something like that. I guarantee you he's doing some of that because...


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[Assistant] Get me on the phone when somebody says that. We'll have a little argument. And I like my chance.


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[Assistant] He's going through in life. You've aged his ass ten years. And so what do you think you've done to me?


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[Assistant] Truly naturally comes to my head through being like beaten into my brain. I'm watching film. Hey, this guy is awesome. I'm talking about him a lot. And I end up walking around the house.


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[Assistant] Well the only, that's, I'll say that's the only one I semi.


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[Assistant] Semi had a little bit of a, like, huh, let me think about that for a second, where I looked up the tune of Big Ben the Clock in London, to just confirm that's what I thought it was, and I was like, oh, this is great, I gotta do that.


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[Assistant] Yes, so it is. I mean, right now I got, I'm only gonna sing them once I get there. But, you know, Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers.


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[Assistant] I have a Deshaun Watson one, right? That's where we're putting on hold for a little while, alright? And then I have a Lamar Jackson.


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[Assistant] I do have a Lamar Jackson that I broke out. It's a nice little collection. A nice little collection. Chris Sims Greatest Hits. Yeah. How to Break Your Ear Drums by Chris Sims. Okay, that's what I'm here for. So that's right. We're back. It's top 40 quarterback countdown time. That's right. We did it. I've been working on it all last week. That's all I did. I had about seven different versions, a lot of notes.


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[Assistant] Uh, talk to my right hand man to discuss it really thoroughly on Saturday night. The old man. The old man. He's always the guy I talk it out with. And he's great because


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[Assistant] He, of course we see things very similar, similarly, but at the same time, he's not afraid to go, oh no, I'd have this guy in front of that guy.


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[Assistant] And, you know, I'm not going to lie. He changed my mind on one or two. There's a few where he was like, I wouldn't do that. Yeah. You know, there's a few where you go, I wouldn't do that. And then I explained that to him and he goes, that's right. That's the point. You're right. That's the kind of back and forth. That's what I mean. That's what you got to talk it out. I've said this before, because sometimes you don't realize


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[Assistant] How good or bad a player sounds until you start saying things out of your mouth and you're like, oh wait that doesn't sound that good, I shouldn't have him there.


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[Assistant] No, no. You believe that crap? I didn't. I don't know why. I don't know why. I mean I was daddy daycare all weekend, kids activities, you know, wife was living the good life, she was, you know, sunbathing in the pool.


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[Assistant] I think on Friday I used it in the evening just a little bit to go, go pick up Phillip from basketball practice. I just want to finish messing with this a little bit. But that was it.


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[Assistant] Yeah, no, okay, we'll see. I doubt I'll play it right. She knows it's done now, so she's gonna be like, what are you, what are you worried about? She's excited about it, which is funny. My wife has really become a football fan here the last few years. Does she listen to the pod? She doesn't listen to the pod as much as she listens to PFT in the morning.


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[Assistant] Like our whole summer. I'm not going to lie. When we got done with the draft, I was kind of like, man, this is nice. I don't really need to watch film or evaluate anymore. And then a few days went by and Matt Casey and Pete were like, so the quarterback top 40. And I was like, oh, you had a week reprieve. That's about it. Right. So yes. I mean, um, Hey, listen, I, I think about this stuff all the time.


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[Assistant] I am always semi-ranking the top 10 or 15 in my brain throughout the year in football. That's just what I do. It's kind of what I've always done.


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[Assistant] And when I get to this time of the year, yeaah, I look at it, I tinker, I sit down, and not that I'm gonna sit here and lie to people and go, oh, I watched seven game films of Kirk Cousins and really gotten it, you know, no, no. I've gone back and watched everybody a little bit.


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[Assistant] Just to give myself talking points, see if anything jumped out, positive or negative. If it was between one or two guys, yeaah, I'd go back and uh, let me just see who


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[Assistant] Who do I really like? Or is there something else that kinda separates this one guy from another guy? And I came to a few different conclusions off of stuff like that where I was just like, ooh, this is tight.


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[Assistant] I don't know what to do. Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan and that general range of guys, man. I mean, that's nitpicky. It's nitpicky to where I had to go to the film a little and go, let me see what jumps out about all these guys here.


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[Assistant] Oh yeaah, 40-36. Right? Definitely. That's kinda what I thought. It is, really. So many guys could fit here. Oh, so many. 30-40 is very tough.


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[Assistant] Because, you know, you hit 30, even though, okay, yeaah, I know there's 32 starting quarterbacks. Some of the backups are better than those low-end. So you're like, okay, how am I going to do this? What do you look here? I have found so far, I think this is my fifth year in a row doing this, where I always feel like 10 through 20,


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[Assistant] It's piecing things together. It's rookies. It's a guy who's a...


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Or, been in the year for a league, but hasn't played, but only in the preseason, or a few snaps here and there.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] So it's like an accumulation of a lot of different things as far as ranking them. And hey listen, just so everybody knows, I mean, what this is, this is not an, I just want to make it clear here, okay? This is not an all time ranking, this is not like three years down the line.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] My protocol for my top 40 list is the top 40 quarterbacks in football. Right now, going into the 2020 season, I'm not thinking about two years down the road or two years behind me. It's a draft.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Everybody's on the same team. Everybody has the same offensive line, wide receivers, running backs, and I'm taking the quarterbacks in a draft according to the order I see fit.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] What have you done for me lately? League. It's not what are you going to do for me two years from now or what are you going to do for me two years or what you did for me. It's right now and that's all we care about. Alright. Stage is set. Stage is set. Are you ready? I'm ready. Alright. You know it.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] The, the, one of the ultimate backups, one of the best backups of football, a guy that I certainly would give some dollars to to be that backup is Case Keenum. Case Keenum to me is, you know,


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] A professional as far as a guy you can depend on to be that backup quarterback has no weaknesses in his game. Okay. Yes. And why he's 40 or a backup quarterback? Yeah, maybe there's no elite thing about his game either. But Case Keenum is a high level backup that we already know can be a starter and take over for a team. And if the team's right,


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] You don't miss much or miss a beat at all to a degree. I mean, listen, we saw him go to the NFC Championship with the Vikings. Case Kingdom's a perfect fit in Cleveland.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] He can do it all. Hey, he's got experience. Little bit of an athlete, certainly. He can get out of the pocket and move around the pocket. Throws the ball well in the run. Not gonna wow you with arm power, but every throw is...


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Got good pace, it's a perfect spiral, you know, puts the ball where he wants to, has experience playing the game, and he can make an off schedule play from time to time. Are you surprised he's not a starter?


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] I think in the given right circumstances, he is that kind of guy who could be down towards that, you know, 28, 29, 30.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] You know, he's stuck in a tough spot with Denver on that team, right? And that was a tough situation. And of course here in Cleveland where he didn't play much last year, all those type of things. But he is one of those guys where I look at to go,


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Let's say Baker Mayfield got hurt in week 10 this year. He played well. You're in good shape. You can win the playoff. You can win playoff games. You can go to the Super Bowl with Case Keenum. That's no disrespect to Baker Mayfield. But Case Keenum is the perfect fit for a Cleveland team who's in the Super Bowl window.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Who's worthy of being a really high-end backup, but at the same time you know if he comes in, okay, wow, we don't have to change our offense.


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[Assistant] You know, he can kind of do all the same things our starter can just to a lesser extent. Might not have that explosive arm or quite as quick moving around in the back end of the pocket and those type of things. But still, Case Keenum for me, man, great insurance policy as a backup.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] Hasn't said it for years, and it's an offense that at least he's got some background with a little bit. Miss Stefanski at least was in Minnesota there with him. Yeaah. You know? Yeaah. So there's, there's a lot of things to like there. It's the perfect fit with the player.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] You know, the guy he's backing up who's still a young guy, kinda getting used to being the man in the NFL. Hey, Case Canem can be there to kinda help him out. Not that Case Canem's been the man-man, but he's been around the block.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] And been on some good teams. Understands what it takes to be a pro, that's for sure. So, I love Case Kingdom's game. I really do.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] You know, I still even look at Denver was a tough situation when he got to take over there. He's one of those guys that when he's your starter, you're always looking to go, I think we can do a little better. That's just the problem. And that's why he is where he is. But I expect him to hang around as one of these high level backups.


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[Assistant] For a number of years to come, because I don't think his arm's gonna lose any pop.


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[Assistant] And he's a good athlete like we talked about. And I just think he's kind of got the right mix.


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] For the guy he is, he's the perfect backup because like we just talked about, he's never a threat to a starter either. They're never like, the team's never going to be like, whoa, Keenan was throwing lasers around the field today. You know, in teams like that, there's a starter and there's a backup and there's that way for a


[User] Please transcribe this text

[Assistant] 100%, 100%, you know, other than, you know, a handful of guys or maybe some young guys that we got coming in to be rookies who have some special talents. Yeah. I mean, I like everything about Case Kingdom. I really do. And listen, you listen to anything that happened in Cleveland last year. Hey, I mean,