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[Assistant] Wait to hit his groove, but I think these are, you know, like we like to say, these are rich people problems. These are good problems to have. And one of the things I kept coming back to when I was watching tush push success after tush push success, if Matt Canada only ran the tush push, this team would probably have four wins right now. I'll just leave it at that. All right. So we're not concerned about the Eagles. Uh, best team in the NFC after the four.


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[Assistant] So alright, let's, uh, one word answer each. Neutrophil, Manitoba, Canada.


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[Assistant] Detroit versus Dallas. Lions. Dallas. Jesus. All right. Tampa versus Dallas. Same field. Dallas. Dallas. Seattle versus Dallas.


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[Assistant] Ballas. I'm taking Seattle in that game. So I think the, the, the message is, after San Fran and Philly, it's wide open.


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[Assistant] Uh, so what if in that very same field in Manitoba, Canada, San Fran and Philly? What's that line?


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[Assistant] In the conference and he's getting competition from future Hall of Famer Brock Purdy. He's outplayed Jalen, Jalen Hurst at this point, not Jalen Carter. Jalen Carter is probably in the running for MVP.


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[Assistant] But uhm, the Lions put an absolute whoopin' on the Panthers, and there are any number of reasons for that. To the point where, uh, our buddy Joe Person of The Athletic, who's covered the Panthers forever, uh, wrote six things that could possibly


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[Assistant] Change and the likelihood they'll happen. The number one on the list was Fire Frank, right? He said this probably won't happen, but David Depp has been known to have a quick trigger.


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[Assistant] So we'll see, man, that's a mess over there, but that has nothing to do with Detroit. Detroit demolishes team, Jared Goff is playing at a high level. And we just talked about they're in tier three-ish in the NFC.


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[Assistant] So self-flagellation on my part, but every week I go back and watch all the rookie quarterbacks. So we talk about it on the podcast with Spielman for the draft.


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[Assistant] Bryce played better last week, but he still had the stupid fumble that cost him a fumble six from DJ Wannum. They had the interception today at Aiden Hutchinson you talked about.


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[Assistant] Had another interception where he didn't see the, the defensive back today. Uhm, and those things can't happen. Now look, I've been criticizing the wide receivers for not getting open. Thielen played pretty well today. Off the line stinks.


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[Assistant] Chalmers of Isla left on a stretcher, luckily he flew back to the team. So he apparently is going to be okay, hopefully long-term. Uh, but that didn't help their cause losing their, their guard. So there are a lot of concerns, but Bryce is up there, man, and there's no two ways about it. He has not played well and.


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[Assistant] I don't know if it's a case of CJ wouldn't play well in Carolina or not, but that's, they traded to get them, and now they got them, and they got some things to sort out.


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[Assistant] Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. One second. I just wanted to follow up. Joe person also wrote in the athletic breach that maybe you start Andy Dalton because that was the only time, uh, that they he threw 57 times. That's the only time that they really got things going. So that's also on the table.


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[Assistant] So it looks like producer Harry is not fond of teams that are 5-0 and 4-1 because now we're going to go to Minnesota.


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[Assistant] Home of our colleague, Cody Benjamin, who was in the locker room after the game. Seeing Travis Kelsey limp around.


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[Assistant] Producer Harry Wondersbreech, is it time for the Chief to hit the panic switch?


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[Assistant] Because their offense isn't quite as electric as it typically has been. I have been guilty in the past of questioning this team early in the season when they got off to a slow start. I learned that lesson, so until they are...


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[Assistant] Dead in the ground, no way they can come back. I am not hitting the panic switch, but you may feel different.


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[Assistant] Well, I was going to say this. Are you more concerned about, concerned in quotation marks about the 4-1 Chiefs or the 5-0 Eagles long term?


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[Assistant] What are we doing in the Super Bowl draft by the way? I don't know, might have to do it at the midway point because we missed the quarter poll. Alright, let's go.


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[Assistant] Dolphins fan, and he is bringing the high heat with this headline. Rookie running back.


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[Assistant] Number 28, in your hearts, in your playbooks, number one in your heart, Devon Achan is your 2023


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[Assistant] Offensive rookie. Ah, forget that. He's your offensive player of the year. Brenton, where are you at on that?


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[Assistant] Uhm, we talked to Ah Chan, I asked him at the combine, I said,


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[Assistant] Ah, Chan has more touchdowns seven in his first four career games than any player in the Superbowl era. Shout out to Mike McGale for making that.


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[Assistant] He doesn't know. I'll tell you what, HN is going to be fourth because, uh, number three on the list now, Breach, Chase Claypool. All right, we'll take a quick break when we come back. We're going to talk about my favorite Wilson, Zach Wilson. We're after this.


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[Assistant] Breach, you're the, I've always said it, you're the Nathaniel Hackett of this podcast. How does it feel to get the big win today, get the game ball after the game and what in the world was Sean Payton thinking back in July when he was flapping his gums about Nathaniel Hackett sucking and the off-season Super Bowl champs being the New York Jets?


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[Assistant] When you said pray, I immediately went to Herm Evers. In this case, you pray to win the game. And that's exactly what they have to do. So Brett, so what's the best case scenario for this Jets team? I mean, obviously going to the playoffs, what's the best case scenario with Zach Wilson, uh, who Harry described as turning into a pumpkin, which is appropriate given that it's almost hell.


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[Assistant] Yeah, but what does that not mean? I'm trying to figure out what are we gonna, what's the best case scenario for Zach Wilson because next year it's gonna be Aaron Rodgers team.


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[Assistant] Russ Wilson isn't necessarily the problem. I'm not sure if Sean Payton is the answer to any of the questions being asked in Denver, so what are we doing with that whole operation?


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[Assistant] The other thing, Breach, maybe Bryson, you mentioned the turnovers that have sort of plagued Russ. He had the dropkick fumble that was returned for six to end that game. And then he goes to the sideline and old Sean Payton's given him the business. And Russ turned and said something. I don't know what he said. It felt like he walked by him.


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[Assistant] Well, he turned his head and said something as he walked by him, but my point is that it wasn't like he reacted, but Sean was certainly reactive.


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[Assistant] And then had to go, you know, say that he didn't want to talk about Nathaniel Hackett after the game. It got so bad that the Jets tweeted out the picture of, of Kevin James. And it says when you lose to the quote unquote off season champs, and that is, and then sauce Gardner tweeted out.


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[Assistant] They could be 4-1 if they were actually the San Francisco 49ers, because they would find a way to lose the game.


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[Assistant] Vikings offensively are doing well. Kirk Cousins isn't the problem, but that's not what we're talking about next. What we're talking about next! The AFC South.


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[Assistant] As I like to say from time to time, talking about other things, usually receivers and coverage, is wide ass open. My kid is up for grabs. Brenton's team, the Jaguars, are crushing it in London, but they got to come back to the States.


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[Assistant] The Texans lost today, but I love CJ Stroud. Anthony Richardson has been hurt three times in four games, got hurt again, left with a shoulder injury. It's an AC joint injury, I believe. So that doesn't seem to be a quick turnaround unless he's got the same guy, Mr. Miyagi, who fixed Joe Burrow's calf. So.


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[Assistant] Brenton, where are we on the AFC South? What are we going to make of it? What does it look like?


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[Assistant] So Breeze, what would, uh, what would the, what would the culture record be if they started Gordon Minchee with the entire season?


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[Assistant] The thing is, you would get a higher pick for Gardner Minchie than you, than the Cowboys gave up for Trey Lance. That's the world we're living in.


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[Assistant] Yeah, he's, uh, he's won two games now. He won the Colts, uh, the Ravens game in overtime and obviously won this game. And he's 0-0. Alright, uh.


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[Assistant] Breach, you lived in San Francisco, Oakland area. Let me ask you this. And then we'll get out of here.


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[Assistant] Okay, congratulations, Karen. Thank you for clarifying. Eugene Cyril Smith is my guy, but I got a new guy. Oh boy. Coleridge. Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV. That's CJ's first name is awesome. Alright boys, that's it!


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[Assistant] You said that last week and that, that helps her. So. Suck it. Everyone who doubted.


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[Assistant] Duly noted, that is it. Congratulations to producer Harry for his dolphins continuing to dominate. And Karen for getting married. Shout out to Karen. That's it. This edition of Sunday Night Super Friends is a wrap, but don't worry.


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[Assistant] We'll be back here Sunday night. In the meantime, you can check out all the Pixix Podcast.


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[Assistant] Thank you, Brenton. Thank you, Breach. Thank you, Producer Harry. And we'll see you guys later.


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[Assistant] Explore the One Mountain Una Familia Collection on Paramount+. Stream now.


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[Assistant] I don't know about the best team in the AFC, but I will say this, uh, you know, not to toot my own horn. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm totally in the Brinton school of humble bragging. Uh, cause look, I think, did we all pick the bills to win this game? I think we all picked them to be the super bowl, but sure. Yeah.


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[Assistant] Great, that's what we're going with this, but of course, let me finish talking. I built the best bet, actually.


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[Assistant] This is, uh, again, so I had, I picked the bills.


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[Assistant] After week one, even though Josh Allen looked absolutely silly turn making four turnovers. Uh, but the one thing about this game though, is that I'm not ready to crown them as the best team in the AFC, even though I do think they're very good. It's just, it is weird that whenever Josh Allen.


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[Assistant] He plays the Dolphins. He looks like he's playing a high school team. Like he just dominates them. He puts up these huge numbers. I don't know what the Dolphins need to do defensively to just, they can't crack Josh Allen. He's gone out there.


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[Assistant] I think he is the NFL record for most multiple touchdown pass games against one team. Uh, and it's just staggering with what he's been able to do, but I will say I do think the Bills needed this game more than Miami did. I think this is going to be.


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[Assistant] The Dolphins were undefeated Brinton. The Bills still had an ugly loss in week one. Dolphins coming off a 70 point game. And it feels like if the Dolphins had won this game that, you know, all you're going to be talking about the rest of the year is that, hey, look, the Dolphins are the team to beat in the AFC East. I think the Bills are now that team after winning this game.


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[Assistant] But for instance, it looks like based on your 17 facial expressions, you disagree.


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[Assistant] I think that if I'm a Dolphins fan, like say Harry, our producer, then I'm not really worried about this. I'm just crossing my fingers and hope I don't run into the Bills in the playoffs just because they seem to be Miami's kryptonite there. But the Dolphins are running over and they still have a high powered offense that's tough to stop. One thing about the Bills though is that defense is playing pretty well


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[Assistant] Over the past three weeks without Von Miller, they don't have their best pass rusher who is expected to come back and start practicing, uh, this week now that he's missed the minimum of four games that you have to miss for starting the season on injured reserves. So they're going to get even better defensively, but I would say with the dolphins.


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[Assistant] Uh, that, you know, Vic D'Angelo probably makes this defense better eventually, but I think people got a little high on them because


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[Assistant] They did play so well over the past two weeks against the Broncos only giving up 20, the Patriots 17. But the more we see from those offenses, holding those teams, those point totals, not that impressive. You look at when the Dolphins actually played two good teams, the Chargers and Bills are giving up 41 points per game. So it's a completely different


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[Assistant] Element. So there is definitely some of the NFL has all this parody. Anyone could be anyone. I mean, we saw a little bit Sunday night, which we'll talk about.


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[Assistant] With the Jets almost knocking off the Chiefs. So there's definitely an element of the parody, uh, but I think the Bills are the better team, like, by this much. And if you're not watching on YouTube, it's, it's like, uh, eight centimeters.


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[Assistant] Uh, I think the 49ers are probably favored, but I think I would pick the Bills. Really? Really? That would be my exact Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] I can, I can confirm that Brinton's Super Bowl pick wasn't fact-spilled 49ers. A commenter said he changes it all the time. I'm looking at her preseason story. So this was not a change.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, I think that they're the best team in the NFC and to the point of Brock Purdy being


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[Assistant] Kind of the perfect quarterback for Shanahan system because he makes, he does what Shanahan wants that person to do instead of.


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[Assistant] And I feel like he went to bed tonight thinking that was the best game I've ever seen run in my offense. Just, it was, it was perfection. It was the chef's kiss game where you have Purdy completing 20 of 21 passes. That's the highest completion percentage in 49ers history, the fourth highest in NFL history. And to have,


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[Assistant] Uh, can go toe-to-toe with them, who's gonna play the Cowboys in Week 5, and I think that's the only question mark for the 49ers is...


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[Assistant] We've seen them beat the Cardinals. Great. They beat the Giants. Okay. They beat the Steelers. They're bad. Uh, and they played interesting game with the Rams, but now they are going to have a big game against the Cowboys. So if they can put up these numbers against the Cowboys defense, then it's just.


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[Assistant] Let's just put them in the playoffs and we don't need them to play the rest of the season because it's out of hand how good they are. Like you guys said, it does feel like injuries would be the only thing that can derail them after that.


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[Assistant] Well, and the other thing with Brandon Iyuk is that I think people were, especially if you're in a fantasy draft, you probably thought, oh, I'll take Deebo Samuel ahead of Brandon Iyuk. And he's had a quiet past couple of weeks. I don't think he played against the Giants.


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[Assistant] Uh, he only had like 40 yards against the Rams, so eh, but then he, he blew up against the Seahawks, I don't remember what his exact number was, but it was over 100 yards. But I think part of the reason that he kind of got forgotten is just because he didn't play in week three and only had 40 something yards in week two. So, just a little bit of that.


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[Assistant] Uh, number one, there is no way on this earth that Travis Kelce is thinking like that because if that was the case, you wouldn't even go on a date with Taylor Swift because you know,


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[Assistant] That everyone outside the football bubble is going to look at you.


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[Assistant] I'm taking the Will Brinson approach. I would never show any concern for Patrick Mahone's after one game where he throws multiple interceptions. He has these games for whatever reason. It's just like.


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[Assistant] Uh, regular season games. And so this isn't out of the norm for this to happen to him two or three times a season. It's just how he plays. Sometimes he goes a little more gunslinger than I'm sure Andy Reed would like. And I mentioned it in Slack that it was like he was short arming a couple of his throws where they just weren't getting it.


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[Assistant] And he definitely looked a little frustrated each time they happened. So I don't think the interceptions are a big deal. Now, if he throws two interceptions next week and then the week after that and doesn't three straight games and he does it against good teams who can actually take advantage of it. Cause if Mobs doesn't throw those interceptions, they go up 24 nothing and this probably ends up being a blowout.


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[Assistant] If you lose to Denver though, uh, you know, there's some speculation, yeah, there's some speculation going into this week that the defense was a little bit frustrated with Wilson's playing. And if you go out to Denver and lose to them, that, that could rekindle that frustration. That might be enough.


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[Assistant] I am Dr. Wilson, thank you. Uh, look, I am highly concerned and, you know, I wrote that story before the Monday night game about how they should maybe think about put Joe Burrow on injured reserve, let him sit out for four weeks and let the calf heal. They did not do that.


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[Assistant] He can't escape. He is back there. He's immobile. It is like his feet are glued to the ground. This isn't Joe Burrow of last year who can escape and make plays, uh, in situations like that. If, if the offensive line, if, if a defense alignment blows by the offensive line, Burrow's done. There's nothing for him to do. It's just the plays over and the Bengals aren't going to do anything.


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[Assistant] The entire game, and this is what's gonna happen any time they play a team with a good pass rush. So what do you do when you, they play the 49ers in three weeks. If Burrows cap isn't better by then, thank God it's out of a buy, so maybe he can survive.


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[Assistant] That team is going to just beat them up. Then they play the Bills who have Vaughn Miller back. That team is going to beat up their offense.


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[Assistant] It's just very worrisome, uh, knowing that it's hard to see this offensive proving much as long as Burrow is hobbled and unless that thing magically gets fixed during their buy, which is two weeks from now, uh, in week seven.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it is stuff and Harry's popping up here with the fewest points scored through four games, uh, in bangles history. And this is one of the worst.


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[Assistant] I mean, I'm not ready to go that far, but I think as far as benching him until after the buy, I think that ship has sailed because if you were gonna do it, you need to do it last week before the Rams game. But here's the thing is if you are


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[Assistant] Right here. And you lose your next two games, you go one and three, then you wasted it. You should have done it because oh, and four, one and three doesn't make a difference. You let them sit. If you had let them sit those four weeks.


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[Assistant] Well, I'm, if I'm thinking like Zach Taylor, who again had this guy in, in the fourth quarter, uh, then yes, I am absolutely willing to take this risk. And here's the thing, here's what I think the bangles thought process is.


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[Assistant] Is that a, if you have Joe Burrow at 80%, 85%, 75%, whatever he's at right now, I think they think they can probably beat the Cardinals. And who knows if they can? The Cardinals have been frisky. That's not, that's not by any means a walk.


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[Assistant] And I think they think they can beat the Seahawks at home in a 10 AM game on Seattle's body clock in Cincinnati. And if you win those games, then you're probably not going to win without Burrow. And so if you just split those games with Burrow and get two weeks off, that's how you, that's it. That's your option. So you have to keep playing them.


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[Assistant] But there's a clear reason because you got, if you're going to save your season, you've got to win one of these next


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[Assistant] Derrick Henry goes for over a hundred yards and every week he crosses his fingers hoping Ryan Tannehill will have a huge game and Tannehill played lights out. And if Tannehill plays well, this team's good. So it just really hinges on whether or not you got Derrick Henry.


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[Assistant] First thing, baby's day out isn't that scary. I don't know why.


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[Assistant] All three of us mentioned on the Pick Six podcast, the Texans were plus 900 and we had mentioned in August that this was the perfect team to sprinkle on because it felt like the AFC Souths was going to be a wide open unless you were someone who believed in Jacksonville, uh, which I don't think any of us were completely on Jag's bandwagon. It just felt like something that, look,


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[Assistant] And then the Ravens, week one, they lost by two touchdowns was a close game and, and it was his first game ever. So you didn't have my expectations, but for him to go out there and throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns, like give this man rookie of the year right now. That was an unbelievable performance. Ryan, how many tears did you shed?


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[Assistant] Uh, watching CJ shroud, knowing that he's already better than Kenny Pickett, but the Texans have a better or more set at quarterback than the Steelers. And that really, I mean, this is his fourth game, the fourth game. This is doing this stuff in his fourth game is picking apart the Steelers defense. So for instance, it seems like rookie, their front runner obvious, right?


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[Assistant] Itens plus 210, Jags plus 145, I'm gonna spree.


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[Assistant] Well here's the problem is that even if the Bears are playing 4D chess and they get the board set up how they want, they're the team that would accidentally spill gasoline on the board and set it on fire and they don't even get to take advantage of how well they played 4D chess because even if they get


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[Assistant] First two picks in the draft would just be absolutely crazy because they have the Panthers pick and they have the top two picks right now at the season ended today. If you're a Bears fan, are you even comfortable with the idea of your front office having the first two picks after all the draft day debauchery that you've gone through over the past few years?


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[Assistant] Trade up for Mitchell Trubisky. I mean nothing.


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[Assistant] Bizarre mistakes that they're making, and now you're gonna trust them with the top two picks? No, that would make me completely uncomfortable if I was a Bears fan. So, uh, I do not think the front office is smart enough to play this type of 4D chess, so I'm gonna say no.


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[Assistant] The Bears are not tanking yet, although if they lose a few more games, I'm sure they're just going to say, all right, let's just try and get the top two picks. Let's tank.


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[Assistant] I think Sean Payne would have to fire his whole defensive staff if they lost to the Bears, so it's a good thing for them they didn't, but you know.


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[Assistant] They have the Jets next week, so maybe they can start piling up a couple wins. It's a winnable game for them. Where's that game?


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[Assistant] The game is at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado.


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[Assistant] Well Baker was injured for a good chunk of his final season with the team.


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[Assistant] I don't, they just, they win so sloppily. They haven't done, I haven't been wowed by them. Like, I feel like today felt more like the Saints were dumb for trotting Derek Carr out there, even though he missed the entire week of practice. Like, just let James Winston play or snap it. How much do you hate James


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[Assistant] Uh, he was like, yeah, no, I don't like you at all, and please get away from me right now.


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[Assistant] Yes. I would, if he wasn't having that thought, then he needs to stay in London until he starts having that thought because


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[Assistant] If I am Arthur Smith and this is kind of where, uh, we heard with the Jets last week where the defense is getting frustrated with the fact that the offense is not doing anything. If I'm watching the first half of this game and I see my quarterback literally throw interceptions on consecutive plays.


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[Assistant] He throws a pick six, turns around, gets the ball back and then proceeds to throw another interception. And effectively that was the game. Just felt like it was over at that point. And Desmond Ritter, it just, it just seems like the game's too fast for him. It doesn't seem like he's getting any better. I would absolutely give Taylor Hein a key.


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[Assistant] A shot. I don't think you have anything to lose. And I think that the way this roster is built, it's if we have just an average, a slightly above average quarterback, he doesn't have to be good or even great. Uh, we can win. And so if I'm the Falcons, I'm thinking about it and you can't wait till you're by cause it's not till November. It's one of those things where Arthur Smith is going to have to say, you know what? Maybe Taylor He does give us the best chance to win.


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[Assistant] Well, let me ask you this, Brenton. If the Texans beat the Falcons and the Texans are held to single, or if the Falcons are held to single digit points.


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[Assistant] Mariuson scored a touchdown in Houston when he returned a fumble for a touchdown. Uh, Ryan DJ Dallas on the list, but the Seahawks do play in Dallas this year.


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[Assistant] So we have a chance to add himself to the list. Uh, Washington running back Joe Washington, scored when the, uh, Washington stadium was in Washington DC at RFK stadium. So that counts.


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[Assistant] Wailers defensive back Ken Houston had a pick six in Houston. Uh, this was all the way back in 1971. Cowboys kick returner Mark Washington had a 100 yard kick return against Washington at RFK Stadium. Uh, and then man, a lot of Washington's here. Rams halfback


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[Assistant] I would just say their offense hasn't looked as good as it did last year. They're not as much, I mean, they were high powered machine last year that just was running over everyone. And so now you've had defensive coordinators that have had an off season to kind of try and figure out how to slow it down. And you lost.


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[Assistant] Right, yeaah, exactly, so I do think they've taken a small step back, but does it mean that, uh,


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[Assistant] That's anything that's gonna last. They might get better as the season goes on, but I think part of it has to do with the fact that Jalen Hurts just doesn't look


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[Assistant] Uh, as accurate as he has in the past, I mean, he just seems slightly off, but he's still putting up fantastic numbers and they're still undefeated. So it hasn't been a huge deal, but I think he had, did he have an interception today?


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[Assistant] He did not, but he has three interceptions through four games. He only threw six interceptions all last season. So it's just a little less accurate with his throws. Uh, but hey, look, they're winning and that's all that matters.


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[Assistant] I'm enrolled Philly. They're undefeated. They're beating everyone. Look, I like the lions. I like the cowboys. Those would be my top four. Detroit Lions? Eagles at two.


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[Assistant] Alright, well here's my issues. Last week, uh, when he did this, which is just unbelievable how this situation comes up so often in Chargers games, as if the football gods are daring Brandon Staley to defy them each week. It is, you know, we're gonna put the crazy situation in front of this guy and just see what he does.


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[Assistant] Last week, he had his running backs who were averaging, uh, two yards per carry in that game. I think actually like 1.8 yards per carry.


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[Assistant] Is that more than the fourth and one they need to breach? Well, hold on. So they go four on four down against the Vikings. They don't get it. This week.


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[Assistant] What kind of crazy stuff did they think up? Well, they took their nine-fingered quarterback, put him under center and asked him


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[Assistant] You don't even know if your quarterback can take a snap under center because he had his hand stepped on earlier in the game. They had him in shotgun almost primarily after, even though he really is in shotgun primarily anyway.


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[Assistant] If you want to go for a fourth of one, especially this one, I felt like they probably thought they could get it. Like I don't necessarily hate the decision. I hate the play call. I hate everything that went with it. And the Chargers defy logic at all times. It's like last week, the one play I wouldn't have called out of all their plays is the one they called this week.


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[Assistant] QBSneak is the one I wouldn't have called because I wouldn't have trust Herbert to take the snap. So it is just really unbelievable.


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[Assistant] I just think they're going to shoot themselves in the foot until they don't have a foot left. I don't know how many shots that takes. That's where they are.


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[Assistant] Ann Wilson, you guys both answered this question. You can say will they win or lose. Chargers versus Cowboys, who wins? Cowboys.


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[Assistant] Yeaah, they won this one because they got out Josh McDaniel by Brandon Staley. Yeaah, he sucks.


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[Assistant] But I will say AOC actually kind of seemed to quit a little bit in the second half.


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[Assistant] Hello everybody, welcome to the Pick 6 podcast. Katie Mox and Will Brinson here, joined by our pick show squad, Alex Selsnick and Emery Hunt of Sportsline. If you hear my voice too, you know that this is a picks show. If you missed the last episode, the Super Friends recapped week one of the NFL season. You have Breach, Wilson and Brinson.


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[Assistant] Well, and yes, and you know, hosting these shows and keeping everybody in line because, you know, uh, the powers that be would like these shows to be an hour tops long, but it's not exactly an easy thing to do. And I feel like sometimes, you know, not everyone knows that. So now, uh, now Wilson knows it is a very difficult thing, especially when you go through an entire slate of games. Yeah, it's hard. Really hard.


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[Assistant] Alright, well the show was a blast, and uh, if you haven't watched it, make sure you check it out on YouTube, uhm, or if you just want the audio only, wherever you get your podcasts. While you're at it guys, hit the subscribe button, uh, so you don't miss another episode today.


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[Assistant] We are going to look at early lines, uh, and leans for week two. But before we do that, we could kinda chitchat a little bit and talk about some of these week one NFL


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[Assistant] Bedding trends, underdogs, nine and six against the spread. Road teams, 12 and three against the spread. Road dogs, eight and two. Unders went 11 and four. That surprise anybody?


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[Assistant] I had, I had Alan Bell on Moxie Betts today from Sportsline. Great, great guy. And, uh, I got, I got killed this week. I got killed in prime time. Like, Kaderrius Tony is dead to me as far as I'm concerned.


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[Assistant] I got killed on both primetime games, but he said week one, he mostly does profits with interceptions and punts and he absolutely cleaned up. And week one, moving forward, I'm betting interceptions and punts.


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[Assistant] Emery, what do you think about teams not playing any of their starters in preseason and kind of what that does to week one? Now we know Joe Burrow of course was injured. When you look at that Browns and that Bengals game and especially some of these where the starters didn't play at all and they should have.


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[Assistant] But, and Emery, help me out here because you're a big Seahawks backer. They got really helped out with injuries to Seattle. Both of their tackles went down, but yea, still, still pretty good.


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[Assistant] Yeah, yeah. One, one thing that I had right this weekend was I did have the, the Dolphins money line. It was at plus 140. So I was happy because I said too,


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[Assistant] But I don't think the Giants are that bad. And Emery, I want to get your take because you spent some time at Giants camp this year. Everything that could go wrong went wrong for this team. And not to take anything away from the Cowboys, but there was just so many errors. Are the Giants this bad?


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[Assistant] Alright, well that's why they call him the Czar of the Playbook. He wears many hats.


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[Assistant] Uhm, alright, Emory, I don't know what hat you're gonna put on for this one. I have little hats.


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[Assistant] Alright, looking at the Seahawks and the Lions, obviously Detroit.


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[Assistant] Upset the defending champions on Thursday night. Seahawks were kind of routed by the Rams there on Sunday.


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[Assistant] Is this line movement justified? You know, you've been really high on the Seahawks, but you're kind of leaning lines minus five and a half now.


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[Assistant] I think the Bills are gonna win, uhm, tonight. I, I'm on, I don't, I guess we're not talking about Monday night. I'm on the under in this game. I think it's gonna be a little bit lower scoring, but I do think, look, Aaron Rodgers,


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[Assistant] We're talking about pre-season is that this is an entirely new group for Aaron Rodgers. I'm pretty high on the Jets this year, but it's going to take some time for him to get acclimated and that O-line still is a little bit scary. So I'm, I think the Bills are going to do well. It's interesting to look at also next.


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[Assistant] I was, you know, it's so funny because obviously we know I'm a big Jimmy G girl and I was texting Brinson after seeing the way the Brock Purdy played and then seeing Jimmy G played.


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[Assistant] I was like, wow, I'm really glad that we have Brock Purdy and not Jimmy Garoppolo, but I will say in QBR ratings, Brock Purdy was number one after week one and, and Jimmy G was number four, top five QBR ratings. So it's again.


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[Assistant] Nine and a half is a big line, but to your point, I do think they're going to win this game tonight. That line could get into the double digits. I would grab it now and then looking at Jets versus Cowboys. That's one where I would wait and see what happens tonight. I do think this this three is going to move, but I don't.


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[Assistant] Well, first of all, and chiefs, take, prop stars, take the under on all of Kadaria's Tony's props. It'll be interesting to see just how low those prop lines are. I mean, it might be like at one and a half receptions or one reception because I would not throw the ball to him unless my life depended on it at this point. Are you going to take any Kadaria's Tony props ever?


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[Assistant] No, because you're going to double and triple team, uh, Kelsey, because that's the only receiver that they have. All right. Prop says you're not going to like my take on this one, but in looking...


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[Assistant] At the Vikings and the Eagles coming up this Thursday night, I'm actually going to take the points with the Vikings and I know they just lost the lowly bucks. But if you watch that game, the Vikings were the better team. They outgained, uhm,


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[Assistant] You gotta think that they're gonna clean that up. They're gonna play a little bit more conservatively. And from what I saw with the Eagles offense, and I do know that the Patriots defense is legit and they played really well, but


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[Assistant] It kind of worried me to see how Philly played in this first game. So I actually, I think that Philly wins this game, but I'm going to take the points with the Vikings.


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[Assistant] Alright, we are gonna take a quick break. We have more leans and early lines when we come back. You're watching Pick 6.


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[Assistant] They were really good. They were really good. Well, and you heard Tony Romo say after the game too that he thinks that the, uh, the Patriots are the real deal and they're going to win more games than I think people think that they will. Two and a half, I don't, I don't know if I could ride this one with you. That seems pretty close when we saw the offensive output that the Dolphins put on, but I agree with your, you know, your analysis.


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[Assistant] Moving on to the Saints and the Panthers, we have some differing takes here. Alex, you're on the Saints laying the field goal. Brinson has the other side, so we'll let you start.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, obviously these two teams play each other really close, but I am, I am.


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[Assistant] Interested in why this line is so close considering how the Steelers played and looked. But I do think the Steelers are a much better team than what they showed. They got punched in the mouth early and then just couldn't really recover from it.


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[Assistant] They like to say it's Levi's South because it is a heavy 49ers population that lives in Los Angeles. They're laying a touchdown. Should they cover this? Yeah, they should. Uhm, but I do know.


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[Assistant] I think that the Rams feel really good about themselves after what they were able to put forward against the Seahawks because a lot of people are high on the Seahawks. The Niners offense was firing on all cylinders. Uhm, so I expect that to kind of carry over and much to my dismay Brinson, uh, certainly the Rams offense was moving and grooving as well. Yes, they got.


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[Assistant] I agree. Alright, that is going to be the end of our show for our early leans for week two. You'll want to tune in on Thursday for our pick show with RJ.


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[Assistant] Uh, and by the way, make sure you just keep it locked with us all week long for more NFL news tomorrow.


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[Assistant] Uh, the subscribe on the YouTube page, and if you're listening to audio only, download, leave a five star review, tell your friends to listen and watch the pod, and we'll see you later.


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[Assistant] What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Pick 6 Podcast. Katie Mox and Will Brinson here, joined by the two surviving members of the Super Friends.


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[Assistant] John Breach and Ryan Wilson. If you missed the last episode, Brinson and I broke down the futures, or excuse me, the NFL.


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[Assistant] Sportsline NFL Futures NFL Draft with RJ White and Propsars. The double NFL is on purpose in case you guys thought it wasn't. You can use the code PICK to get your first month for just $1 over at Sportsline where you only get good picks. No nonsense, but apparently...


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[Assistant] Brinson, we get some shenanigans here. What are we doing today?


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[Assistant] Wow, what a day. Thank you. Happy to be here.


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[Assistant] By the way, that is the biggest bold prediction that everyone has made. If we're gonna just might as well just put it out in the open that Sam Darnold is going to be the star.


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[Assistant] Uhm, yeaah, I think I'm gonna go higher than you did, Brinson, and give this, uhm,


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[Assistant] A solid eight. I give you an A on the TJ Watt because I actually already have a ticket there. That's something I've discussed on the show, which I like. Steelers to win the division. I mean, it's really bold, but Katie Pickett has been dealing in the preseason. The offense looks pretty hot and we know that that defense is strong.


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[Assistant] Uhm, it's just the can you pick it in the the quarterback thing is that one's hard for me because the AFC North has got so many superstars. So I'll give it a solid eight.


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[Assistant] So wait, do we have like, uh, like an Olympics calculator where it tallies up all of these and gives an actual grade?


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[Assistant] Oh, you got, but you know what I'm saying? When the, when the Olympic judges say something and then it makes it all actually one grade.


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[Assistant] Wait, so if they start slow, week one, is that a loss for the Steelers?


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[Assistant] Wait, this is supposed to be realistic though, right? It's supposed to have a little bit of, okay.


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[Assistant] Washington, they can win. Tampa, they can win. Tennessee, the like.


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[Assistant] So what is the criteria? We grade on boldness, we grade on realistic, and then is there like a third?


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[Assistant] Yeah, well, one, I like this. Uhm, the only problem with this is when's the last time that Dak has been healthy for like an entire season?


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[Assistant] Uhm, I do appreciate the Trey Lance drama to this, right? Because he's not very happy that Trey Lance came in, so he's playing with a chip on his shoulder, although Jerry Jones keeps chipping on at his shoulder. I mean, I feel like the guy is just constantly trolling his franchise quarterback.


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[Assistant] Uhm, so I feel like he's motivated even more to play. The Cowboys are going to be good this year. I worry about his health because he ends up missing a chunk of games every single year. Uhm, so I will give it a 9.5.


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[Assistant] Alright, the Chicago Bears, coming off being the worst team in the NFL and only three wins, will end their season within one game of the NSC Championship game.


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[Assistant] Or no, they make it to, they either make it, no, they make it to the championship game.


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[Assistant] Within one, no, okay, you're right. Within one game. Oh, I see. The divisional round. The divisional round.


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[Assistant] 8.975. Well, I guess they could get the Niners. Obviously I'm biased when I talk about that. All right.


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[Assistant] The personality is bringing my scores up, guys. I appreciate that.


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[Assistant] Why could I have seen this one coming? Alright, we are going to take a quick break here. Would we get back? Could Sam Darnold be a Super Bowl winner?


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[Assistant] Could he? I don't know. That's what Joe Musso seems to think. He gave me one of his bold predictions to be on this show. We will chat about it when we come back.


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[Assistant] I love him. Yeaah, he's one of my favorite people to work with outside of the Super Friends, now that I'm part of this. Uhm, but he said that the 49ers will win the Super Bowl this year with Sam Darnold as their quarterback.


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[Assistant] I just, I just, I don't see this happening. Uhm, it's, it's, I'm obviously slightly biased and so I will give it a 6.6.


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[Assistant] You guys will be the number one seat, wow, over the Chiefs.


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[Assistant] Uhm, oh my god, the number one seed Brinson, I mean...


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[Assistant] I feel like it's a good combination of bold and slight realistic expectations. Uhm, but they gotta beat the, they gotta beat a lot of people. I will give you.


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[Assistant] Wow, Jordan loved to have a, you said more passing yards or just a better season? What was that?


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[Assistant] Okay, wow. I will give you Wilson.


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[Assistant] Is it me? I will give it 9.75 because I, I do love this, but it's not, it's not, it's not, it's not above the 9.9 though. It hasn't gotten past, uh, what Wilson did, but I do like this one.


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[Assistant] I survived the entire offseason and I'm, I'm still sad.


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[Assistant] Uh, alright, so obviously I think saying, oh, Chief's over there 11 and a half, everybody's got that, even at minus 140, but how about the Chiefs to win exactly 15 games?


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[Assistant] If you get over 14 and a half on DraftKings, it's plus 500. I don't know about what the exact odds are.


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[Assistant] I think they lose to the Bengals once, uh, do you want me to say which games I think they lose? The two? Sure, if you want. They'll lose to the Bengals once, and the Bills. Those are the only two losses.


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[Assistant] Princeton, should we real quick talk about the scheduling for the season?


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[Assistant] Oh, well, I mean, I guess we could, we could, we could do it together. Mondays and Thursdays, pick shows. Brinson and I with the brightest minds on Sportsline. Tuesday, Wednesday, Brinson.


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[Assistant] Well, first of all, you had me at Chick-fil-A because I eat Chick-fil-A all the time, so I appreciate that about you, Breach. However, I've nev- Okay, when you reheat it, you put it in an air fryer, right? You're not putting this in the microphone.


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[Assistant] Yeah, well it's good to know that David Carr is doing well. 76 sacks, jeez.


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[Assistant] It's also slightly realistic, like what'd you say, Breach, four and a half sacks a game?


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[Assistant] Okay, I don't feel great about this, but now with this voting thing that you could vote.


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[Assistant] Number five! My thing is though is I, I wouldn't be surprised if this season ends and Stenson Bennett is, is the one. That would have been the bold prediction to go with.


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[Assistant] That's why I can't grade this high because I don't, I don't know how much we're gonna see if.


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[Assistant] Alright, Jonathan Taylor does not play


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[Assistant] A snap this season, but Anthony Richardson still wins offensive rookie of the year.


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[Assistant] Pretty close. Let's just, let's give Brynson one, one, just one point. Not on every, not on every one, just a single one.


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[Assistant] I'm still grappling with what you asked me, uh, and trying to figure out who...


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[Assistant] What team I think should be in Nashville, what the party team is. I don't know, but like I'm, I'm sidetracked on that. It could be his whole separate podcast.


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[Assistant] Look, cause I agree, variable is a dog and you still have Derek Henry, you still have


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[Assistant] Or now you now have DeAndre Hopkins. And I do feel like even though they're three to one, this is like the most disrespected three to one team. Nobody believes in the titans. So I will give this 8.67.


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[Assistant] Well, this was fun. I'm, uh, glad to be inducted into the Super Friends and have my first bold prediction show. And the first time I've allowed a show to go over an hour, what? 10437, so.


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[Assistant] Alright everyone, that is going to conclude the Bold Prediction show. Make sure you join us later this week for more NFL coverage.


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[Assistant] Next week, or this week. Today is Monday. Happy Labor Day, people. We have pre-taped this show, if you haven't figured that out already, but make sure you join us for the rest of the week. Week one of the NFL season. We are excited about it. Brinson already talked about what the programming is going to look like.


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[Assistant] In the season, you got some super friends, you got some gambling and you have your Sunday show, which I know that you all love so much. If you're listening to YouTube, make sure you like, comment and subscribe. If you're listening to audio, download, follow, leave a five star review, tell your friends to listen and watch the pod. See you later.


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[Assistant] We need the sports news anywhere. We've got breaking news to bring you. Then get your sports anytime you want them. Big trade news overnight to discuss. Because we know you need sports all the time. A lot of movement in the rankings this week.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it was, it was the one mistake he made versus the Bears last year where he didn't protect himself and it ended up costing him this year. He's, he's extra protective. He's a little indecisive and...


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[Assistant] What's up everybody? Welcome to the Pixix Podcast. Will Brinson joined by Brady Quinn and Lee's Doosable. We've got a like, comment, subscribe on YouTube. Rate and review on Apple Podcasts. It's Spotify's final NFL roster. Cut to anywhere down to the 53. The NFL, uh, I guess it depends on


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[Assistant] I shall be curious, uh, from a player perspective, because from a, uh,


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[Assistant] Short middle-aged media perspective, a single day of roster cuts is vastly preferred. Gentlemen, uh, from a player perspective, what's the better? What's the better option there? Do you want multiple days? You can try it. You know, you know, if you made it down, go, they change it. Obviously it's where it's just that single cut. Now you should be on it. They should do like.


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[Assistant] Final day was on a Saturday, week four of the preseason, and now it's a, you know, Tuesday, probably because the NFL wants eyeballs, but it is helpful to have it one day a year, uh, as a, from a player's perspective, the better or worse.


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[Assistant] Uh, dude, you mentioned something else just to just sort of touch on it from an overarching macro standpoint to hell.


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[Assistant] Um, teams are kind of stashing these like sort of like the gamesmanship of the NFL roster and putting, you know, some of the, like these UDFA guys or undrafted free ages, UDFAs that you might otherwise try to get into your practice squad, putting the on your 53 man roster.


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[Assistant] It's not like sometimes you have a new holder. Sometimes you end up playing in games where there's a bunch of wind. Sometimes you have a bunch of outdoor games late in the season just because the schedule is funky. Sometimes, sometimes the ball hits the upright and it goes right and sometimes it goes left and you're gonna make a bad point.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, it's like, it's hard to predict. That's why like heavily the more and the more heavily you invest in those guys, the more it gets criticized and the bigger deal becomes one notable positive.


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[Assistant] I was gonna make a joke about being a podcast host, but it probably won't land. So instead I'll move on to, uh,


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[Assistant] Yeah, exactly. See, it wasn't gonna land to Tray Lance and the Dallas Cowboys. Tray Lance traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, we talk about all the changes that we've seen with the roster, uh, roster set up and how the 49ers had to play Josh Johnson and then.


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[Assistant] Like almost Christian McCaffrey, quarterback last year.


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[Assistant] They moved on because now their depth chart is as it stands right now, after, after the cuts are done, Brock party, Sam Donald, Brandon Allen, like that's, I mean.


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[Assistant] That's cool. If you trust Brock, part of you stay healthy after a surgery and him to be the same guy he was for those seven games. And if you believe that Sam Darnold can bounce back in the system, and if you think of it all goes to bleep, Brandon Allen can be your, your hail Mary hero, but


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[Assistant] You kind of wanted to help Trey Lance out by giving him an opportunity. I wouldn't, I'm not really surprised by the fact that it was the Cowboys because I think the comment you're referencing dues where Jerry mentioned Jalen hurts and then where he pointed out how Trey Lance, he's like, Oh, you know, that doesn't do it. Doesn't do a DAC.


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[Assistant] Dak has them leveraged up because of the cap it, they're going to have to restructure him. And now they can be like Jerry is trying to play that public game where he's like, yeah, well, basically we like anybody out there, you know, like Jalen hurts. Oh God, we almost dragged pretty six times. And you know, like, you know, he could be thrown as any kinds of names out. He tried to trade for three lands, fourth round pick. I would have.


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[Assistant] I don't know. I just thought that they should have moved on faster. Um, Brady, do you think that there's anything here that indicates like how quickly they moved on? Is there anything that might indicate given the comments from John Lynch?


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[Assistant] That John Lynch was the one pushing for Trey Lance and that Kyle Shanahan now has maybe a little bit of, uh, more power in terms of that personnel say, uh, in, in that infrastructure there, just because, because it was almost like John Lynch was like, we just wanted to make finding him a good home for a fourth round pick. To me, it was just very odd statement.


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[Assistant] Zach Prescott said something about Treland. It's a big thing. We embrace him. I'm not surprised anymore. Buy or sell that Zach Prescott isn't mad about.


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[Assistant] But there'll be a fun contract situation with Dak coming up in the future. Who doesn't love that? It's at least more interesting. The running back contracts. We got two situations. We got two of them we got to talk about. We'll do that coming up next after the break.


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[Assistant] Jonathan Taylor, welcome back to the Pixix Podcast. We're over at some Brady Quinn, Leige Doosable, and uh, Jonathan Taylor, not traded. In fact, he's going on the, is he going on the, he's on the populist.


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[Assistant] So he is going to miss four games. I mean, quite simply, Brady. How do we get here?


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[Assistant] I don't think it hurts him. I think, I think what the populist move is by the cult, but this would be my guess by Chris Ballard. Chris Ballard basically sort of told Jim or say like, look,


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[Assistant] We want, we want to try and make men fences at all. Let's not put them on, do not report. Let's put them on the pop list and you put them on the pop list and then you say, Jonathan, you're getting four games of free money on your biggest salary, 4.3 million for the, for your base salary of your career. This is going to be, that's, I mean, that's four. So it's, I don't even know what his per game is, but like, I mean, you get the point.


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[Assistant] So, so he was making 250 some thousand dollars per game over the 17 games. If he put, you know, now he's getting $330,769 over the 13 games. So he basically got like a,


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[Assistant] You know, and by virtue of the, I think this is the Colts kind of throwing him a bone and saying, Hey, look, like, let's try to mend fences. Maybe and see if, see if we can work this out. Plus you see where you are after four games and, and maybe like, as Brady points out, maybe you try to trade him. Um, but yeah, this is certainly not the end of this, but it should get him at least like kind of.


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[Assistant] Yeezit, I guess? I don't know. Josh Jacobsonny, uh, one-year deal this weekend.


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[Assistant] There's, is that the best move for Jacobs? I mean, he just basically got a sweetener, right? Just like also that clear.


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[Assistant] It's unfortunate. It stinks because running backs, running backs do matter.


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[Assistant] And you can make the case that like, you know, especially with it often to sort of, you know, we talk about the Eagles and the Colts, how they're operating the Patriots, right? The saints have been pretty run heavy a little bit. We'll see what they do know their car, but like under Sean Payton, they were even kind of running the Eva Drew Brees. There's a lot of teams who have loaded up the Colts.


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[Assistant] I expect the Panthers to be run heavy this year and it's just tough. It's tough because


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[Assistant] Your team's not going to give you this massive contracts extension where they can just play it out, franchise tagging, pick up your fifth year option, franchise tag you and then, and then keep going. And it's, it's.


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[Assistant] It's like the, you'd almost rather be a second round pick. Well, I guess Jonathan Taylor proves that theory wrong. I was about to say.


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[Assistant] It's just, you just, mamas don't let your babies grow up to running backs? Is that where we're at?


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[Assistant] By the way, uh, Will Lutz's agent. So, uh, Lutz lost his job in New Orleans to, uh, Blake Group. I am group.


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[Assistant] Should I get that one? Oh, yeah. Brady Brady didn't watch guardians.


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[Assistant] What? Yes. I'm Steve Flusser. Just tell me who's Iron Groot. Tell them.


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[Assistant] No, Vin Diesel. Vin Diesel. That's right. I know somebody like that man. Um, Touche Brady Touche.


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[Assistant] He didn't lose his job. The Saints just made a poor decision. The better player is not the one who's left on the Saints roster. I'll tell you that Brady. What was your favorite kicker trade today?


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[Assistant] Who's your, who's your, who's your least favorite kicker that you had on like a team in your time in the NFL?


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[Assistant] Kickers fluctuate, man. A very interesting big name went on the PUP list.


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[Assistant] As I was, did you see my panic faces? I realized what time it was because we're going to get dudes out of here. So I'll give, I'm going to give you two names who went on the PUP list. Which one interests you more, Kyler Murray or Von Miller dues?


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[Assistant] Yeah, and I will say the one thing I do think the bills want to have happen is, they want...


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[Assistant] They don't want to run the risk of playing vanilla too much early and him not being healthy. They want him healthy for the final stretch run. But yeah, you're right. I mean, those two divisional games are going to matter and ultimately could impact the seating in the AFC. All right, that's going to do it for us. Make sure and like subscribe.


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[Assistant] Great. And review wherever you get your podcasts on YouTube for dues for BQ. I'm Bretton. We'll see you guys later.


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[Assistant] I am indeed. Good call, Princeton. I'm glad you, uh, it's a great film, you know? Gotta, gotta love that one.


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[Assistant] Specifically the offensive line, defensive line. The Jets played in the hall of fame game and man did they look sharper than the Panthers did. So you know, let's think ahead to next year, uh, you know.


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[Assistant] Good luck with that. I can't think ahead to tomorrow or what I'm going to eat for lunch. But like, you know, if thinking about it next year, teams that play in the Hall of Fame game may be a little more likely to look sharp. Then the teams that are going out for the first time specifically like


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[Assistant] The Jets, the Panthers offensive line is, is like profiles as a problem, at least what we saw. They had a separate meeting after the game. That's a big, big red flag when the coach is yelling at him, like, and everybody agrees they did a terrible job.


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[Assistant] Bryce Young got popped several times. I think he dropped back six times, took four hits maybe. I thought Bryce Young looked fine, but the offensive line concern. Jets defensive line may just be a top five unit. Um, Russell Wilson in that offense.


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[Assistant] I thought his footwork looked lethargic. I thought he was, uh, indecisive. It's early, not going to jump to, you know, jump to judgment or whatever, jump to a conclusion, but, uh, definitely a red flag there for me. Jump away. And then, um, I think Jordan Love and Justin Fields.


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[Assistant] I feel like short completions, but certainly, you know, the, the guys around him make him much more interesting. And then Jordan love, I thought looked very comfortable in that role. To me, those two guys could really make the, the NFC North interesting this year if they take a step forward. Uh, Emory, any thoughts on our preseason week one?


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[Assistant] When making the throw and it was on a stunt and you could see it like Ikki Ikwami, my boy from NC State, who's a great run blocker and still developing as a pass blocker, completely confused.


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[Assistant] But like that, the first one was just, it wasn't a sack, but it was a pure stunt. The Panthers were completely confused and Icky, you could even tell, was apologizing to Bryce Young because Bryce Young popped out of the house and was like, don't worry about it, dude. Uh, so yeah, like.


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[Assistant] It, the, the, the preseason, the reps, the training camp reps, these offensive lines will improve. They are always going to struggle early on, especially in week one.


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[Assistant] Sam Donald had, Sam Donald had, I mean, Sam Donald has more attempts in the past two regular seasons than Trey Lance has since like middle school. I mean, like, I am not even kidding. I mean, it's just the nature of it.


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[Assistant] The last thing is concerning, I think. I just thought, I thought like, I think that when I think about Drew Brees and dropping back and how he is...


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[Assistant] It's not, it's not, it's not frantic, but it's like very like, it's, it's rapid. It's very hyper kind of quick movement with his feet and very moving through his progressions as fast as possible. And Russ, to me, and granted the offensive line was not giving him any time, but his footwork just looked lethargic. And he just didn't, you know, like I was expecting to see a.


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[Assistant] That's a clonish version of Drew Brees back there in the pocket where he's popping around and he just sort of looked like he was still learning the offense, which is a possibility. They left him out there for four series and he got...


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[Assistant] I'm doing my, I'm writing up the wind turtles stuff for cbsports.com, uh, this week and next week. Just, you know, I did it back in March, but then now, I mean, like Lamar Jackson hadn't even signed. We didn't know Lamar Jackson was like, might be traded for all we knew. And so everything's changed. Your bird's gotten banged up, right? And there's all kinds of different things that have happened that we need to reassess this.


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[Assistant] I think the Eagles number has gotten too high here at 11 and a half. And that is not to say that Philadelphia is not a good football team, right? Uhm, everything coalesced.


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[Assistant] Came together last year for them in terms of, um, Jalen Hurts took a leap.


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[Assistant] They went six and one in one score games and one of the ones, the one one score loss was what Gardner mentioned you under center. I don't know which way you want to take that, but the game didn't really matter for them. They knew they'd get Jalen Hurts back.


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[Assistant] Jalen Hartz took a massive step forward as a passer. They were third in the NFL, third lowest in terms of adjusted games lost to injuries. So they were, they were lucky.


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[Assistant] They got a big leap forward and they had a lack of injuries. Like some of that stuff is going to regress. The Eagles could win 11 games and then go win the Super Bowl. If they win 11 games, they're probably winning the division or you know, at least certainly in the playoffs, right?


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[Assistant] I think when you just, when you look at it, they go from having one of the easiest schedules, if not the easiest schedule in the NFL to having the hardest preseason schedule in the NFL. They're not a team that is flying under the radar that is going to, you know, like nobody is like, Oh, the Eagles are coming to town. Well, we'll see if they play well.


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[Assistant] You know, they have a good opening stretch at New England, Minnesota, at Tampa, Washington at home, and then at LA, uh, before they head to the Jets in, in week six. Like that's a.


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[Assistant] They could easily start 6-0 and you'd be worried about this win total, but then they have all those division games against the Cowboys. They have at the Chiefs after their bye, the Bills at home, the Niners at home. Um, they gotta go to Seattle. They have, you know, there are, there are a lot of wins on the schedule for sure, but I think if,


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[Assistant] You talk about a team that lost their defensive coordinator and lost its offensive coordinator, had some, you know, some attrition in terms of personnel, but not really that bad, but was very fortunate with injuries and very fortunate in those close games. To me, I'm going to take the under here. It's not something I would want to go out and bet, but if I'm picking something for the Eagles, it's the under 11 and a half.


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[Assistant] I think the roster, I think the roster is loaded. I think it's a really good roster. And I think that sort of gets lost in the conversation too, not to linger on the Eagles here, but like.


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[Assistant] I don't think Jalen Hurts is going to take another leap after losing his offensive coordinator. Even, you know, Sirianni is obviously very involved in the offense.


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[Assistant] If he performs at his level last year and doesn't, like, he could regress statistically and not get worse as a passer. That happens all the time. Patrick Mahomes had a better season his year after his MVP season as a passer, as a quarterback, but his statistics weren't as good. So like,


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[Assistant] Jalen Hurts could regress, stay the same level of play, but you have, you know, and the Eagles could win 11 games and have a great season.


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[Assistant] And it would be, it would hit the under and it would be like a disappointment, I guess, which is, it's just the nature of expectations in the NFL.


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[Assistant] So I think it's probably over or bust for me on the Cowboys just because like,


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[Assistant] Like after the draft, like, like the actual physical sports books in Las Vegas would release win totals. And now there's a scramble to get those out there, right? Well, Caesar's re as recently as like, I guess, um, in the last month had this at nine and a half to the over with minus one 70.


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[Assistant] And now it's, you know, they're just reluctant to move the number because they don't want to open themselves up to being middled. It's just easier to slide the juice. And you see this bump up to 10 at minus 145. Um, the Zach Martin thing is concerning.


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[Assistant] Like this is a guy who's gonna make a bunch of money, but Jerry Jones, I think came out on Saturday or Sunday, at least over the weekend during the, you know, at some point recently and said that,


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[Assistant] I mean, if Zach Martin misses time and you know, you don't see these holdouts actually work, as I noted on Twitter on Sunday, because it's the new CBA has set it up that way. If Zach Martin actually missed time, the trickle down effect for this offense is pretty enormous. And.


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[Assistant] Dan Quinn's orchestrated, I believe a top 10 defense, maybe top five every year that he's been there. It's, he's, he's biting, he's, he knows it's going to be good. He came back to bite his time to pick a coaching job that he thinks he can win at. And he knows he'll keep getting looks because that Dallas defense is really good. To me, it all comes down to the offensive line and the health at running back.


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[Assistant] Now running back, they got Deuce Vaughn, who looked, I thought he looked sharp in the preseason. The Darren Sproles comp is super easy, but


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[Assistant] Malik Davis, it can be, you know, it can be fine if like something happens to Tony Pollard, they could bring back, I hope, I hope, I would like their win total over more if they don't bring back Z Kelly, because I'm worried that Jerry Jones forces him in there too much.


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[Assistant] The offensive line with basically every team in the NFL is the big concern. If Zach Martin misses time, I would be scared to have this over at that juice. But for me, it's probably over or bust with the Cowboys just because you have the option to push at 10 and 7, which isn't that great. But it is a pretty good season.


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[Assistant] I mean, it's like, it's not like the world's greatest season, right? But I mean, like it's a, it's a, it's a pretty good season, I think. I mean, you know, the Giants almost got there last year, nine, seven and one. Can they repeat that? Let's take a break and we'll tell you coming up next on the pick six podcast.


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[Assistant] One of the big surprises in 2022, the New York Giants, Brian Dable coming over in his first year, every referenced Josh Allen. Brian Dable leaves Josh Allen. He leads the league in turnovers.


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[Assistant] And, uh, and the Giants and Daniel Jones take a step forward. Probably not a coincidence. Their win total though, despite going 9-7-1, making the playoffs, beating the, uh, the Vikings in a matchup of the one score game, one score game heroes, uh, the luck box teams, uh, and, and, you know, making it to the second round there.


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[Assistant] Over under seven and a half, minus one twenty to the under, even money to the over, their division wins set at two and a half, minus one twenty to the over, minus one ten to the under, so basically even money there. Uhm, a lot of, Daniel Jones got paid this off season, Saquon Barkley's unhappy, the Giants pretty, I mean, you could


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[Assistant] It's not probably, they definitely botched the way that they could have handled that in terms of handing out the cash. Uh, but they have a good front office, a good coaching staff. They've made some good draft picks in the last two years, Emory. Uh, what are your thoughts on the Giants? I mean, Vegas is blatantly telling us they expect some regression across the board from New York this year.


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[Assistant] Pivot, uhm, despite what I said, I said I was going to take the over and the division wins, but I, so my thing that I said all last year and I think that, uhm,


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[Assistant] I need to stick by it because I do believe it is that if you look at the 2017 Buffalo Bills and that was Sean McDermott's first year.


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[Assistant] He came in and replaced, um, Anthony Lynn replaced Rex Ryan slash Anthony Lynn, right? And he takes over that team and McDermott.


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[Assistant] Is an unknown on a northeastern team. He's like a really good head coach. Now he's getting flacky. I don't know if this is the guy. Like dude, look at his record at Buffalo. They have been terrible since the 90s. Keep this guy around.


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[Assistant] Outkicked their coverage type of team. They had, uh, their expected win-loss was 6.4 wins, right, based on the Pythagorean Theorem, the point differential, etc. They won a bunch of one-score games. It was very clear that coaching made a huge, huge difference in terms of how the Bills performed.


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[Assistant] They go to draft Josh Allen. The reality was they were not going to be like, there was going to be some regression built in. They went six and 10 the next season.


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[Assistant] And they finished third in the division, they missed the playoffs, but the optimism carrying over from that first year, plus the addition of, um, of Josh Allen and you know, he completed 52.8% of his passes as a rookie. Like they, we knew there'd be some struggles there. I think really was kind of the setup for the Bills.


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[Assistant] For me, I tend to think that when you look at this, this giant scene, we could see some regression in terms of their overall wins and where they win. Like they go like seven and 10, but everybody says, okay, Daniel Jones played really well. He just doesn't have any weapons.


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[Assistant] Where it's like you go seven and 10 and you still feel like you had a good season even though you took a step back. So I'm going to go over their two and a half wins in the division because I think there's some coaching mismatches there. The Sirianni is a really good coach for sure. Ron Rivera.


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[Assistant] He's a very good program manager. I don't know if he's a great coach, and I think we got some questions about how that offense will look.


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[Assistant] And then, you know, uhm, in, uh, you know, in, in Dallas, Mike McCarthy, like I'll take Brian Dable, uh, you know, nine times out of 10 or actually 10 times out of 10. So I think we can steal three wins in this division. You split with everybody and still maybe end up being a seven and 10 team. Uhm, that, you know, that.


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[Assistant] Or the commanders, if you feel like respecting their third name in five years, win total over six and a half, even money under minus one 20 division, win total over two and a half plus one 30. They knocked off the Eagles.


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[Assistant] And they're under the, the, the undefeated Eagles ended up going eight, eight and one Emory. Uh, Ron Rivera recently had some dumb comments that he walked back about Eric B enemy. Um, Sam Howell looked, I thought looked pretty good in his first preseason action and they have enough on offense where like it's a very intriguing team. What are your thoughts on, on Washington in that wind total?


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[Assistant] It's going to be close. This is not, definitely not one I would bet because I think there's a chance that Sam Howell is a lot better than Vegas and the majority of people think and that BNME can unlock some stuff with him. Terry McLoran's a stud.


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[Assistant] Uhm, but like more than likely like contend for a wild card spot late in the year. Probably not up there with Dallas and in Philadelphia. I've got the Brinson model has been going six and eleven.


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[Assistant] So I'm going to lean towards, uh, probably, you know, end up like just staying away from this. Uh, but I think you could go commanders over division wins two and a half as well with the idea being this team is better than we think. And they really just have to hold serve. And we've seen them as Emery said, like, you know, you can, you know, they, they, they hang, they're going to hang with these division.


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[Assistant] I don't think we're going to see even Philly or Dallas just obliterate New York or Washington. I think there's enough there coaching wise, personnel wise, where, where those two teams stick around. So lean towards the under on the wind total, but maybe go over on the division one.


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[Assistant] See, this is what I, this is what I would do. I would take the Niners to win the division at minus 160, which you can find. Like, I would rather do that than take the over 10 and a half.


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[Assistant] Because you can win 10 games and win the division easily in a division that features a Rams team that was, has not been inspiring all season as a six and a half win total. I know I like, we'll talk about them in a minute, but like the Cardinals, the Rams, and then the Seahawks who could regress. I would rather take the, I would rather pay the minus 160 to win the division


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[Assistant] And you see that minus 145 at 10 and a half, um, then to, then to do over 10 and a half wins at minus 160, which we saw in Caesars, because if you, if you, if you lay the minus 160 at Caesars on the over 10 and a half wins and they win, they go 10 and seven and win the division, you will be very, very upset with yourself.


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[Assistant] And like if they win 11, if they win 11 games, they're going to win this division. So like, you know what I'm saying? Like doesn't that seem like a, a much more reasonable, like there's more outs to winning the division.


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[Assistant] They're not going to win 11 games and finish second in the division. If they do, then some, something weird has happened.


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[Assistant] You know, Smith's one MVP or like Lord Matthew Stafford's one MVP, right? So I mean, I think that would just say that would be.


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[Assistant] That would be my bet is the minus 160 to win the division, which you can find out there.


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[Assistant] You know, this is like, I liked him coming out. I liked him his junior year, I guess, at Iowa State. I had him in like my first round mock, I think, along with like Jake Fromm or somebody, I don't know, first round mocks, early first round mocks before you do them. And it's like, but then.


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[Assistant] Mr. Irrelevant, and he played really well. Kyle Shanahan didn't get the most of his quarterbacks. I feel like with that trio there.


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[Assistant] Even with the preseason stuff you saw from Tray Lance, you can still feel pretty good about what he's got at the position. The skill position guys are unbelievable. I mean, unicorns across the board and then defensively, yeah, the back end may be a few weaknesses, but as long as you know, Nick, as long as Nick Bosa is in there, um, when the season starts, they will be fine. So.


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[Assistant] I would like the Niners to win the division. Uhm, I would lean towards the over, uh, 10 and a half wins, but would prefer the cheaper juicing.


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[Assistant] They could go nine, they could go nine and eight, have everything go wrong at the quarterback position, deal with a bunch of injuries, and still win the division on a tie break. And so you're, instead of paying the Jews to get ten and a half wins, where you have to get eleven wins, you can just bet them to win the division. To me that seems like a much safer play.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think that the Seahawks, um, I had them, my pick here was the under, uh, three and a half divisional wins. And this is not a bet again. I mean, it is a technically a bet against the Seahawks, but I, I, I agree with Emory that the Seahawks are going to be better than people think. Like we get one. Yeah. Pete Carroll, who's a like just.


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[Assistant] I became at some point a really underrated head coach. Like the dude just wins everywhere he goes. Should point out like they won nine, like their only time they didn't win nine games was when what like Russ collapsed. Uh, this is a team that has to be better defensively. And by the way, like they've kind of stunk the last five years on defense. So Pete, yeah, I'm saying I'm hyping Pete up.


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[Assistant] The defense is good at some point. Uhm, and this could be the year, like Jamal Adams, a decent look for comeback player of the year. I think when you've got,


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[Assistant] Last year is more replicable than people think. I don't, I don't think he's going to have the exact season. I think it probably, you know, scale back down, uh, a little bit in terms of how he plays, but he has the weapons there. And then I think a huge thing is both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonneau back a lot earlier than we thought, uh, at training camp and in the preseason.


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[Assistant] They were like listeners both out and definitely it was like, oh man, this is a problem.


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[Assistant] This obviously really good. I'll take the under though in the division win totals because I think San Francisco, I think San Francisco will sweep them just cause I think San Francisco is a better team. And then I think when you look at, uh, Sean McVeigh, find a way to win one.


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[Assistant] I don't care what they did to Russell Wilson in the Broncos in the preseason. They were blitzing their asses off. They were firing everybody at Russ. It's like kinda, and like, I think that the, I think that the, you know, we, like, we had our, our buddy Johnny, Johnny from, uh, Phoenix Sports Song for to do the All Cardinals, the All 32 Cardinals podcast and like,


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[Assistant] In the history of the sport, I don't think unless they were also the GM and like, or like also the owner who would actually tank.


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[Assistant] There doesn't, there doesn't, no, John, they're gaining no good to try to lose football games. Like, you know, Monte Ossoffort can want the top pick and he could think they might end up with it.


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[Assistant] And he can want the top two picks, but Jonathan game is not going to go out there and tank. Now he might not win a lot of games because he's got bad personnel. So I'm going to take the under here at four and a half. Um, you know, Colt McCoy's frisky. They're going to, you know,


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[Assistant] Because that is literally what we're going to do. I just think I'm going to take the under here four and a half. Of course you'd rather have the five and a half that was available. We knew it was going to sink down and keep moving down. Four and, four and fifteen, four and thirteen, excuse me, is terrible season. But I mean.


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[Assistant] Like, they could win. If Kyler Murray comes back, this is going to be a problem taking that. Uhm, I just think that they are, you look at these numbers and how we slot out worst regular season record, that is a huge discrepancy at the top between them and the Texans. So I'll take the under here, four and a half wins.


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[Assistant] Like, I don't know. Like, I am concerned about this offensive line. I'm concerned about a lot of offensive lines. We talked about that at the beginning of the show. There's reasonable reason to be concerned.


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[Assistant] I just firmly believe that Sean McVay is a really, really, really good head coach. I mean, he's won a Super Bowl. He's been to two Super Bowls. Uh, he's had one losing season. Matthew Stafford is going to the Hall of Fame in my opinion. Um, we'll see.


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[Assistant] We'll see if, you know, I mean, so I think he is that he's won a Super Bowl every, um, and I think he's a decent sleeper for MVP at like 50 to one. Now, is he going to win it? Probably not. Uh, we did the odds for the MVP have been condensed significantly, but they have enough stars on this team.


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[Assistant] And there's enough question marks in the division and in the conference where I think that they can bounce back a little bit. I don't know that they're going to bounce back and be a 10 win team again, or even a nine win team.


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[Assistant] But dude, if a Cooper Cup getting hurt in the preseason, big concern. But Matthew Stafford.


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[Assistant] You know, Sean McVeigh has certain, like all these head coaches in the NFC West tend to, tend to like get the better of each other at various times when you least expect it. So I'll, I'll take that over. I'm a little less confident in the Rams win total over at six and a half than I, than I was previously.


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[Assistant] There's Matthew Stafford Slander in this chat in this podcast. This is a Matthew Stafford podcast.


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[Assistant] I mean, I came out, I came out and propped up Stafford as like a hall of favor before he won the Super Bowl. Everyone got real mad about me. The people were talking about it. I like, it was one of those things that goes viral where it's like a talking point on like every ESPN show and like Coward or whatever. And then he goes out and validates with the Super Bowl. Stafford for life.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it was an interesting bounce back, but it's typically an overreaction time. Uhm, could you see the lines move so, so desperately one way on people overreacting on lines? But uhm, I don't know that that was necessarily the case. We had some, some decent line movement, but not as much as we usually see.


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[Assistant] And uh, they covered and then they went back to it in week two. They moved the line on the Bills game and they did not cover. And then they're right back to the well this game. It seems like they're, everybody's back in the Raiders. Uhm, that line shot up to minus two and a half for the Raiders. So I don't know what the market's seeing there, but uh, that, that was kind of my takeaway is which teams do the, does the market like? And it turns out that that's one of them.


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[Assistant] I do Really Edge. We do the NFL preview show on Tuesdays at 4 o'clock for an hour. Me and Larry go through every single game, give our leans, give our likes, our early best bets, get on the lines now. So that's a good one to check out. And then I do Early Edge in the morning on Sundays just to get a few best bets on the later lines. People looking to bet right before the game.


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[Assistant] Yeah, he's one of the few running backs you could say that about, that you can make the argument he's worth a point. I think, you know, I don't know if I go that far, uhm, a lot of their success does come with the offensive line, uhm, but you couple that with the Jack Conklin injury from the week before, then you're starting to get a little more worried about the run game in general. So I think they, if they have any more key injuries to that offensive line, it could go downhill.


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[Assistant] In a flash, uhm, the Jerome Ford looked good though, uhm, so behind that offensive line, uh, in filling in, so I don't think we're going to see a massive drop off here, but it really does stress that you're going to put the game more on Deshaun Watson's shoulders now, and uhm,


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[Assistant] Yeah, he has not proved that he can handle that. So this is last chance to show something. Tennessee's past defense is struggling.


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[Assistant] Uhm, and so if he's going to do it, he needs to do it this week. Uhm, but Tannehill looked much better in his game. Uhm, I don't know if the Tennessee offensive line can hold up against Cleveland's defense. I think Skoranski is going to miss another week.


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[Assistant] Could get ugly for them. Even with that, I think you gotta lean to variable as a dog yet again. Uhm, at plus three, it was a lean for me at plus three and a half, which is now in the market. It's a best bet for me. I think this line should be three at worst.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I think that the over, um, it doesn't have much value in it at this point, but I would play Cousins over 293 and a half pass yards. Uh, the Chargers still look like a lot less than some of their parts with their latest meltdown. Their offense moves the ball, couldn't figure it out on the third down, 2 of 14 against Tennessee. Past defense has been abysmal despite facing Tannahill.


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[Assistant] Uhm, in that game, too many big plays, 20 up 24, Tannehill averaged more than 10 yards per attempt. Kirk Cousins has had 44 attempts in each of his first two games. You can do the math there. It's gonna be a huge game for him if he gets anywhere near what we've seen from these two teams. Minnesota's pass offense can definitely hit those big plays that Tennessee, that the Chargers are giving up with Jefferson, with Addison.


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[Assistant] So I think the game is going to go to whoever has the ball last. I think it's better to live bet it. Uhm, I think if you want to play a pregame, you might go Chargers first half just knowing that they tend to melt down. Uhm, and then look to bet the Vikings when you get a good number with the Vikings at plus money. But uhm, but in terms of


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[Assistant] The margin of victory to be very big. New England, I agree they impressed against Philly, um, both offensively and defensively.


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[Assistant] It kind of flipped the switch and we thought New England was going to have success in the running game. It was Miami that ran all over them with Raheem Mostert and the Jets. We'll try to do that with Greece Hall. They couldn't do that against the Cowboys. They couldn't get going. My one worry is what Katie said about how many defensive plays that they were on the field for that game.


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[Assistant] So are they going to be tired for this one? I don't think so. Their 2023 is out the window. So they've heard all the things about the New England win streak. They can't beat New England. So I think this is their Super Bowl. They came into that season expecting to compete for a Super Bowl. All they have now is to beat New England and get this win streak done. So I think they're going to


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[Assistant] Brinson, do you want to trend, trend to back up your play? There's a, I looked into this earlier. There were eight games since 2020 where the total was 38 or less and the road team was favored.


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[Assistant] I liked Buffalo. I thought the Sharps were wrong on that, but that's in a regular game where the weather isn't a concern. You get this game with massive wind, whatever it's going to end up being.


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[Assistant] With these conditions, uhm, I does not play to Buffalo's favor, I don't think. So it's gonna be a stay away for me, just not knowing the, the, the effects of the game. We're gonna have to track the weather a little bit better and then decide what to play. But I wouldn't want to be on Washington 2-0, but they needed fourth quarter comebacks versus two awful teams to get to 2-0.


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[Assistant] So I don't really believe in them. The Buffalo offense right now is interesting. We've seen them be big play oriented in the past. Josh Allen had 8.8 yards per completion against Vegas. His lowest full season rate is 10.8 in that stat. So it seems like...