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[Assistant] So high. It is because of the running game. It is because of Tannahill's ability to be a great aggressive thrower down the field, as we've talked about a lot.


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[Assistant] And then Brown and Davis are a great combination to go along with Jonah Smith, who's damn good too. But, you know, Brown is the...


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[Assistant] Ooh, he's flying, no. Okay, let me go to number two. Corey Davis is running a post corner. It's a more intricate route, but bam, damn, he's open. There you go. That second touchdown. Hey, the Colts are worried about the run game.


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[Assistant] They're playing cover one. They're kind of running a run blitz on the strong side. It leaves one on one coverage on the back side. He throws a strike to AJ Brown for a 69 yard touchdown pass.


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[Assistant] Right, accuracy is the key to his game because he lets his receivers always run after the catch and they never have to break stride. So now they get to the 14 and this is where the exposing that you're asking about, what was it that went on?


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[Assistant] Yeah, it was, it was impressive, and I think what they learned from the first matchup was, wait, this Colts defense, it's fast.


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[Assistant] There, they do some movement up front, slants and stunts and things. It's too hard to zone block that.


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[Assistant] So they kind of just took the approach of, hey, let's go right at them this time a little bit. They're not real big. DeForest Buckter's not in there. Let's just kind of go right at them and let's use a fullback. And that to me was the story of the football game after those first two drives. It was the weak side Iso run.


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[Assistant] And when I say ISO, I mean ISO as in isolate the fullback against one of their linebackers. And really what, so it's almost a little bit like a zone blocking scheme, but you got a fullback leading you up in the hole. And what they did, when I say weak side bubble, okay, so if the formation's to the left, tight end's to the left,


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[Assistant] That shade nose tackle to your right, who's right on the edge of the right shoulder of the offensive center. Now there's a bubble there. Nobody is on the guard. He is nobody in front of him. And then the tackle of course has the defense end on him.


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[Assistant] That setup alone, they abused that. They wanted to go there. And they made sure they did. Whether they motioned the tight end before the snap. Okay, hey, the tight end's here.


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[Assistant] Oh, okay, let's motion them. Oh wait, the bubble's here. Okay, we're gonna go to this side. And if the bubble was somewhere else, they'd go to the other side. And maybe they'd run strong side. But either way, they continually abused that. Really, throughout the first half.


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[Assistant] Like hit him, and now the guard can get up to one linebacker, and now you got the fullback leading up against another linebacker, let alone when that fullback runs through that gap.


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[Assistant] It creates another gap that the defense has to be responsible for.


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[Assistant] And they had issues with that repeatedly. And of course, Tennessee, what I love about them is, like we said, it's not a lot of run plays, but what they do, they do it well. And they do it really well. And like you said, it was always perfectly blocked and he was going to the second level untouched a lot of times.


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[Assistant] It might have been there, it might have been, hey listen, you go into a game, teams play in a certain way, you're doing certain things good, and you go, hey I think we can do this good, and then it doesn't work out quite the way you want, and you go back and reevaluate and go, well,


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[Assistant] They're a little better at this position than we thought, and uh, ooh, but there is a weakness right here. Maybe we need to try to expose this. I mean, it could be just as simple as that. You know, you're not always going to have all the right answers the first time you match up with a team, as you know. And I think they just reevaluated it.


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[Assistant] You know, that was a huge part of the football game. And really, it is the reason they were up 35 to 14 in the first half. Because there was never really an adjustment made off of it. That was my next question. Yes.


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[Assistant] It was just too slow to do it. You know, they tried different ways of maybe we'll kick the linebackers over there and do those type of things, but that still just wasn't enough of an advantage because that guard center combo we talked about and the fullback leading up there was still making it tough on them. So,


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[Assistant] Not until the third quarter did we see an adjustment. And what did, what did the Colts do?


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[Assistant] They took away the weak side bubble. So now they played no bubble. So in a defense where you'd go, okay, if I'm the quarterback and the tight ends to the left, hey, the three techniques to the left usually means that nose tackle, shade noses to your right. Well, they moved that shade nose out and put him head up on that guard.


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[Assistant] They put him head up on that guard to now where, okay, the garden center can't get up there and get to the linebackers as easily. And they cheated the linebackers over just a little too, so even though the center has nobody on him,


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[Assistant] He couldn't just fly up there and cut off one of those linebackers from getting to that weak side. That was the adjustment they made. Too little, too late at that point. And it really, it just, you know, it didn't matter by that time.


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[Assistant] Yeah, it's, it's, you know, they're, they're, this is where I think, like we talk about him in the MVP race, I think it's gotta be right there with Rogers and Mahomes. I right now would go, Rogers, Mahomes,


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[Assistant] Derek Henry, and I mean it's close between all three. Like I'm giving Rogers a hair advantage over my homes and my homes a hair advantage over Derek Henry. But it is very close.


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[Assistant] And you know, to your point in those numbers, what you're saying, it just shows you. You know, everything about them goes through that running game. And those explosive pass plays we talk about and everything off of that.


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[Assistant] They're all there because of that run game as well. He's a special human being. They're big up front. They're tough because they're head coach.


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[Assistant] And they always know how to block the play properly.


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[Assistant] Cause I mean. Cause it's hard to take away from Rodgers and Mahomes. Right. Rodgers and Mahomes, you're still like, they win every game cause of them and what they do. So that's where, but I think that's to the point still. We're putting him in that class to go, these are special guys. The team runs through them. And just because this guy isn't underneath the center taking a snap.


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[Assistant] The ball can still, and the team can still run through him too. Uhm, and, you know, they just, they, they have an identity. You know, we talk about identity.


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[Assistant] It is. It's a great identity. It fits their head coach. It fits the personnel of their team. It all makes sense. And to button this up, that was a great game plan.


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[Assistant] It doesn't matter, right? The speed gets taken out when you got people coming at you and you're trying to fit a gap and do all those type of things.


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[Assistant] It's interesting. It was, it obviously did not become that. Uh, it became close at one point where I thought, ooh, maybe the bills might get it going here and start to blow them out and run away with this.


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[Assistant] The Chargers played, we're gonna play really soft, conservative coverages, not give up good plays, big plays. We're, we're gonna be sound.


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[Assistant] And our coverages, our run fits. We got talent. We got fast linebackers and a good front four. And we're gonna play that way and just see if they can be patient and do it that way. The bills on defense.


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[Assistant] They were the opposite. They more went, we're going to be aggressive and confuse your young quarterback and really, you know, uh, pressure your protection schemes and expose them a little bit.


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[Assistant] And make your quarterback have to throw the ball quick and get it out of his hands and we'll rally and make tackles. It was almost a totally different approach by two different defenses if that sums it up a little bit. Right. And yet both were very effective as we can see.


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[Assistant] It does look different. I think though, it should be encouraging for the Buffalo Bills. Especially now that we're in December. Exactly. And in that environment of Buffalo. Right. Exactly right. And then you're gonna have to play some teams where...


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[Assistant] You know, you play the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs or some other teams where you're just gonna, shoot out's not gonna happen. You're not gonna like throw up 40 points and 400 yards passing against some of these teams. You're gonna have to show some versatility in how you can win a football game. So is that an identity that can stick with that? I think, I think it is. Because as the game started, one of the things I wrote, I went, oh,


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[Assistant] The Chargers are playing like they do against Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. We're gonna back up, we're not gonna let your right arm throw a laser show all over the place on us. And Stefan Diggs and you guys all have fun and laugh at us and all that.


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[Assistant] They said, nope, we'll go back. Our front four is good. We'll pressure you that way. And I wrote one of the things I wrote in my notes I wrote early on. I went, do the Bills have enough of a patience and a short passing game here to hang in? They do.


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[Assistant] Mix in some run, and do some things like that, and be patient, and then when they kinda got the game where they wanted, they showed the ability to be able to run the ball even more, even though you expected them to run it.


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[Assistant] And I think that's a good thing. Now, did they make some mistakes along the way as they were doing it? Singletary fumbled, Alan throws the dumb interception off his back foot, right? But still...


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[Assistant] But you're seeing Josh, whoa, this is a few times this year we've seen Josh Allen manage a game a little bit. Yeah. And not just be crazy and play like his ass is on fire and do stupid shit. Yeah. So that was cool to see in my opinion. I agree.


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[Assistant] Let's get, you know, Moss and Singletary in the run game going. You know, hey, the kid, the rookie Gabriel Davis at a UCF. I mean, he's another contributor. Yes, it's, it's just, I think this was one of the better all around team wins that I saw from Buffalo all year long.


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[Assistant] And it, it showed me a lot because, you know, I think they probably wouldn't, they went into that game thinking,


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[Assistant] We're going to come out and do the same kind of crap. Except the Chargers defense was like, no, we're not going to line up in some of the defenses Seattle did. They showed them pre-snap, like, hey, here's the Seattle cover three scheme. You think you're going to throw verticals and all that? Oh, set hut. Oh, nope. We got two safeties back. They did a lot of that. Show cover three.


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[Assistant] Josh Allen's at the line of scrimmage probably going, ooh, I like this play, we got cover three, set hut, and then that safety that you thought was rolling down to play there, he gets back and they play cover four and things like that. And I think that's a great lesson for them as an offense and everything like that. Offensive line, somewhat healthy, moving some people.


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[Assistant] Overall, I think, you know, we hit it. I think the offense, it was good to see them play that style.


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[Assistant] I want them to be, I want them to be careful. They have to be careful for him a little bit. He's such a good soldier and such a team player and a football player.


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[Assistant] You give him the ball, and it's third and short or whatever, he's gonna lower his shoulder. He's gonna try to get the first down. It's just, he's a football player that way. He's not your typical quarterback. So yeaah, I'd like them to be careful with him. And then we saw the play where he rolls his ankle, right? Yeaah. Like that, just go down big guy. Go down.


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[Assistant] You're too damn good and important for the team now to be like worried, who cares?


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[Assistant] He's not going to go down. You're right. And I've seen him a number of times this year lower his shoulder and do stuff like that. We saw him once on the third and short. I mean, Joey Bosa crushed him, right? I mean, so yeah, I do worry about that.


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[Assistant] I don't know if you've ever met him though. He's a big sucker. I have, oh he's huge. So he'd make you feel better if you saw him, but still you're going, you're still a quarterback and it's the NFL. Don't live, you know, on that tree branch there.


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[Assistant] I think it's more the Bill's defense. I think the Bill's defense, somewhere about four weeks ago, you know, I think with healthy, realizing things weren't working,


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[Assistant] Maybe I, I know I did, maybe they did too, mis-evaluated how talented their defense would be coming into the year.


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[Assistant] You know, the big thing with me and anybody listening to the podcast the first five, six weeks of the season, I just went, man, the bills, their code gets cracked every week.


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[Assistant] You know, it's kind of the same defense every play. I was going, what's up with Sean McDermott? I've never seen him play this simple. What are they doing? I don't know if they thought, hey,


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[Assistant] We're banged up and let's just not mess things up and let's play simple and try to be sound. Or if they thought, hey, we're talented, we don't need to do a lot schematically this year. I'm not really sure what their thought process was early. I do know they're healthier now, especially up front.


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[Assistant] And they're playing better. But the biggest thing to me is the Buffalo defensive McDermott. He's gotten back to what I've seen the last two years. I mean, just a master.


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[Assistant] You know, I look at the top three teams in the AFC and you go, you know, we know we got the Steelers, the Chiefs, the Titans, and I always kind of thought, eh, I think those three right now might be in the class of their own.


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[Assistant] Buffalo is that next team to me that I thought there was a pretty significant gap.


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[Assistant] But the way they played the last two weeks, I'm starting to go, oh, Buffalo might be able to play some playoff football like I thought. And, uh, I guess all the movements,


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[Assistant] The unbelievable crazy alignments they have and things like that.


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[Assistant] I think that's where I thought it was amazing and it really exposed the Chargers in pass protection. It flustered Justin Herbert, especially in the first half.


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[Assistant] You know, whether he didn't know what he was seeing coverage wise or there was times where I go, ooh, he always hits his throw. Why did he miss his throw? I think he was uncomfortable. There was people around him. Some people were coming free. Even if they weren't free, they were close to him and the pocket was collapsing in a hurry.


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[Assistant] And I think that led to, yeaah, them, you know, not having quite the offensive output we expected as well.


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[Assistant] They, they, they had still so many chances in this too.


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[Assistant] Come back and win the football game or at least tie it and do all those type of things. And, you know, it just goes to the bigger picture with the Chargers once again. It just doesn't make sense. You know, going into the weekend, they had the number two offense in football and the number 11 defense in football.


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[Assistant] You know, you shouldn't be a 2-8 football team that way. But, you know, big moments, big plays, they always mess it up. They never seem to handle certain things the right way. And that's just been the, the M.O. of their year. And it really has, specifically when you talk about the end of the game. I mean, that just kind of encompasses everything you talk about. Throw a Hail Mary.


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[Assistant] But I, I just don't know what the communication was at the end of that football game. And that, that to me is,


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[Assistant] Yeah, well, you know, as we, I mean, I guess if you made me pick one of those, I'm gonna pick the Tennessee Titans. I am. You know, with that run game, uhm, Pittsburgh, you know, we've seen Baltimore run on Pittsburgh. We've seen some other teams run on Pittsburgh too. Kansas City, you know, you can run on them as well. So, I do look at that, but I don't look at Buffalo.


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[Assistant] As being too far off that, especially like I'm saying with the defense improvement, I mean, you know, what you do to the Chargers, what you did to Russell Wilson was pretty damn impressive. What you did to Kyla Murray in that offense was pretty damn impressive.


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[Assistant] So we've had a few geeks in a row here where, yeaah, four or five weeks ago I went, you know, those are a playoff team, but they're not going to make a serious run, not with the defense playing the way it is, to now I'm sitting here going, woah, defense gotten pretty damn good.


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[Assistant] I've seen a little inkling of a run game. If they can do those things, I might throw them up in the class with those rest of those teams.


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[Assistant] Because you're just going to have certain matchups like we talked about. You're just not going to be able to have the air show. Right. And you never know what the weather could be in January in the playoffs. So you're going to have to be able, okay, we might have to throw it short and run the ball and play some defense in this game. It's windy and rainy in, you know, Tennessee today or wherever.


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[Assistant] And that's where you want to have that versatility. And I think that's very important.


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[Assistant] Between the offense manager of the game and the defense being healthy with Buffalo and the exotic looks and everything they did that way, just, I'm really impressed with what I saw on that side of the ball.


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[Assistant] Wait, well, it was a disaster from every aspect possible, okay? You know, this is one, another team where I'd go, Dan Quinn got fired, alright?


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[Assistant] Team has some energy under Raheem Morris. Raheem Morris has made their defense a different animal compared to what it was early in the year. They're another team like McDermott where


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[Assistant] They line up in formations and things. Sometimes I go, I don't know what the hell this is. I don't know what you'd call this front. John Gruden and Bill Belichick never taught me what the hell this one is. But either way, it's effective and sound and way to go and it's creative.


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[Assistant] It's, it is a really creative defense right now. It went from being, man, it's Seattle cover three, like way too much and way too predictable, to now, I can't predict what coverage and what blitz is gonna come on any play. And I know John Gruden couldn't. Right. And I know Raheem Morris knew that.


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[Assistant] See, Raheem and all his history here, after watching the game back, things I said on Monday where, you know, Raheem knows Gruden's offense, that to me,


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[Assistant] Was a very real aspect of this football game. He was never gonna let Gruden and how he's programmed Derek Carr to call plays at the line of scrimmage like we saw on Sunday night against the Chint.


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[Assistant] Chiefs two weeks ago, he was never gonna let him get in that comfortable mode of like, oh, oh, I'm in this play, we're gonna go to, you know, Cindy Gruden LA, Cindy Gruden LA, which is like 96 Wanda or whatever, like I'm using his code words, right? They weren't gonna let him get into that mode.


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[Assistant] So, it's disguises, different lineups, things like that. All of that were...


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[Assistant] Uhm, an issue for Gruden 1 to get in a rhythm as a pipe caller or to have Carr save his ass at the line of scrimmage because he's programmed them what to do. Alright, so that was one big issue.


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[Assistant] They simply just got their ass whooped. They did, didn't they? Like physically whooped.


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[Assistant] But you're right, they were everywhere, and again, I think them...


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[Assistant] Not only being better on defense, but Raheem coaching them about what runs they do and things like that, that unlocked them to read and react even faster. So it looked like they had, you know, an extra rocket up their ass this week. Right. Yeaah.


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[Assistant] All led to the dysfunction. You know, what happens to, with a team like this, right? And this is one thing where I'll take, I'll say one little negative thing about Gruden here.


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[Assistant] When Gruden can't get a feel for your defense and you do too much stuff and you blitz and all these fire zones and things like that, he likes to get in big personnel.


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[Assistant] Ulbrich and Raheem aren't like that. They don't care. They still continue to call exotic stuff. But here, we can go through this game in a hurry and know what went wrong. First drive of the game, they're kind of moving the ball. Alright? Fourth and one, they run a toss play.


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[Assistant] No one gets a hand on D.N. Jones. Sorry, it's one of the fastest linebackers in football. Right, so there you go, that's that drive. Next play of the next drive. Exactly.


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[Assistant] Uh, it's a little green dog by, I can't say his name, 54 Olu- Olu- Oluquan? I can't say his- Oluwakon. Oluwakon, excuse me, thank you. Oluwakon. Who, I would like to tell everybody out there, is


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[Assistant] I mean disruption, fumbles, interceptions. Whenever there's a big play on Atlanta, I can promise you if you look closely, 54 had something to do with it. He's been phenomenal. So there he is covering Darren Waller. He sees Darren Waller's not going out on a pass, then he rushes and Darren Waller can't handle him on the pass rush. So there's a strip sack fumble.


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[Assistant] Third drive, they're moving the ball, Josh Jacobs lowers his head, gets him a big penalty, way behind the sticks. Fourth drive, they're kind of doing things good, again, okay, Wallers wide open on a one-on-one matchup down the middle, down the left sideline.


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[Assistant] The car is way too late to go over there and throws it behind and they don't convert. So then they go for it on fourth down and they hit it to rugs and they get down there.


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[Assistant] Then, all the sudden, it's penalties, penalties, penalties, and they gotta kick a field goal.


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[Assistant] So, there's that. Fifth drive's a three and out. Sixth drive, after all this, and the Raiders haven't done crap, it's only thirteen to three. Right? Right. It was only sixteen to three mid third quarter. Right. Which is nothing. It's, they're, they're doing okay. But Gruden's scared off the run game at this point. He's realized, whoa.


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[Assistant] All the chaos they're creating up front with these fronts and slanting and doing all this, we can't block it. We can't figure it out. So it's 13 to 3, and we get another strip sack fumble.


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[Assistant] Alright, that just leads to being 16 to 3.


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[Assistant] And they're still hanging around and, and it's not like totally out of it. But then they get the ball in great, in great field position, right? And that's where you get the pick six. It's 16 to three and you're going, okay, but this just goes back again to the offensive line getting their ass whooped.


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[Assistant] They're, they're, they're, they're good right tackle, right guard, Gabe Jackson, he just gets beat by number 50 Kaminsky. And as Carr's throwing the check down to Josh Jacobs, he kinda gets hit in the back, the ball, ball goes a little, you know, uh, wide of the target, he throws it behind Jacobs, interception, pick six, see you later, bye bye. You know, so that's that.


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[Assistant] Ass whooping, schematical ass whooping, and then a coaching staff who had great understanding of what another coaching staff wanted to do. And a speed matchup that the power raiders, you know, obviously had issues. They want to be big, push you off the ball, do those things. They couldn't get their hands on any of these guys in the front seven. That to me was the big theme of the game that jumped out to me more than anything.


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[Assistant] No, I mean, I think Gruden, I think early on, I will say for Gruden, I've never seen him get off the run so quick.


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[Assistant] Which I was a little surprised, cause usually he'll just stick with it, just so he can keep with it to get play action passes and do things like that.


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[Assistant] This is one where he was kind of just like, whoa, I've seen enough. He never really gave it a chance. And I think he just thought, okay, we'll be able to throw it and do that. But they couldn't protect it.


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[Assistant] And he couldn't get a feel for what pass play to call against what coverage. And people might say, well, whoa, then why is the Falcons defense not so amazing? And why don't they do this to everybody? You know, when you play teams like Falcons like this, you gotta run all purpose plays, especially early in the game.


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[Assistant] You gotta run plays that attack them. Whether it's screens, reverses, speed sweeps. Oh, it's one on one outside. We'll take the ten yard out. You have to do things like that.


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[Assistant] So then once you get a feel for, oh wait, this is how they're attacking us in this formation or this, and now you can start to call plays where you go, I think this play exposes this defense. Never got to that. Never got to that at all.


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[Assistant] I think it did. To me, the overall energy of the Raiders was as low as I've seen it through the Gruden era. And I just think it's...


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[Assistant] You know, the football, human psychology, you've been there.


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[Assistant] We're as good, we're almost, we're almost as good as the best team in football. We're doing good, everything's great.


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[Assistant] You know, oh, the Falcons this week, they're three and seven. I mean, we're gonna go down there and beat them. I just, I just feel like that's what happened.


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[Assistant] If they continue to be as impressive as they're doing, listen, I was one that, I love Raheem Morris, I was one just to be objective to go on, do you really want to keep that old regime around and rehire him? But if they're gonna, I mean, what he's doing right now is special. And just from the things you hear from the players down there and all that,


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[Assistant] I mean, they continue to be impressive here down the stretch. I mean, they might have no choice but to hire Raheem Morris.


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[Assistant] Definitely. Coached offensive football a little bit for the Falcons. And he's back to the defense. And in Tampa, he was the man.


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[Assistant] Like I always knew Raheem would be a head coach. Always. I think he became a head coach maybe a little too early for his own good. Either way. And there were some issues there within that Bucks organization. You know, and one thing I'll say in his defense, yeaah, he might have been a little young.


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[Assistant] You know, he took a team over that Gruden didn't leave him the greatest team in the world to take over. We were an older team at that time. I had just left.


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[Assistant] Where we had no young talent to infuse. It was always get the 10th year veteran in here to fill that spot we need. So, he got stuck with there and then they spent no money. I mean, they fired Raheem Morris and Greg Ciano came in and they spent like 120 million dollars in free agency. I'm sure Raheem was like, what the f-


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[Assistant] Could you have done that when I was there? I'd still be coaching. Yeah. So, uh, hopefully he has, I know he's learned cause he's a smart guy, always will.


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[Assistant] It was a pitiful football game by Jared Goff. I don't know any other way to say it than to be honest with you. Alright? Obviously, listen, you can win and still be successful with Jared Goff. I understand that. That was not his best showing. And I think a little concerning.


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[Assistant] And he's gotta make plays that are there to be had too. And that's, there's two areas that he missed out on in this football game. You know, hey, go back to the old adage we always talk about. I know it's a beaten horse here.


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[Assistant] He's not the kind of quarterback that's going to carry your team when the run game and the bootlegs and things aren't going to work. You know? Hey, there's games where he's been really good and on his game as a drop back passer and you go, damn, that's awesome. That's great. But they're few and far between. And this would be, you know, one of those games where I'd go,


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[Assistant] Yeah, they couldn't run, they couldn't do the bootleg, some of the play actions were there, and he didn't throw the ball well. His pocket presence was pitiful that way. I mean, the interceptions, the first one to Richard Sherman.


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[Assistant] It's all, it's glue. And he threw it like, not even thinking twice. Like, he's wide open, I'm just gonna chuck it to him. You know, so that's a little concerning. Hey, the next interception, I know he's getting hit. And things like that.


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[Assistant] But, first off, this goes back to pocket presence. His movement in the pocket is non-existent. Wherever he ends his drop,


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[Assistant] That's where he's gonna throw it from. You don't have to worry. He doesn't step up. He doesn't shuffle and move and then throw. And he very rarely scrambles and then throws. So he's really a sitting duck a lot of times in the pocket.


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[Assistant] Okay, throws the interception, there's pressure. I know that's gonna happen.


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[Assistant] I think what's more concerning is who the hell he was going to throw it to. He was going to throw it to an interception even if he wasn't going to get hit. He was throwing to a double covered shallow cross, right? Yes. So here you go. If you're watching at next gen stats, here we go. Jared Goff dropping back to pass. Look at Cooper Cup over the middle.


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[Assistant] 41 and 57 are both there. I mean 57, he's gonna throw it right into his chest.


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[Assistant] If he doesn't get hit and the ball pop in the air for Ken Law to have the


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[Assistant] Where he's throwing is, like, McVay's gonna be more concerned with, wait, he was gonna throw the ball there than he will with the actual, that he got hit through the interception. He's gonna be more bothered by going, what is my quarterback doing by, why would he throw it there?


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[Assistant] So that is concerning, let alone some of the misthrows in


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[Assistant] Definitely. It's going to put the 49ers in a really tough spot. Yea, the Rams have kind of gotten the momentum of the game back. Their defense got them in the game. But instead of scoring seven, they left yards and points on the board and had to settle for a field goal, right?


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[Assistant] There's just too many throws throughout the game that affect the drives and affect, you know, oh it's third and two, hey, Cooper Cup's wide open in the flat. He's open. You gonna hit him for a first down? He throws it five feet behind him. He can't even get a hand on it.


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[Assistant] They're down there in fringe field goal territory there. Oh, they had to kick the field goal. So there, that drive could have been extended and you don't know what's gonna happen. You know, some out routes and things like that miss that you go, you know, even at the end of the game and, and you're gonna go, this is gonna help field position. They might be able to do something here. Just too many routine NFL throws that I go,


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[Assistant] Yeah, well, you know, I think it's still what we talk about though. I really do. You know, the Seahawks game, you know, the play actions and boots were all there, right? So you take that game, alright, and you go, yeah, the Bucks game,


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[Assistant] Some nice plays, certainly. A lot of them. A lot of them. There's definitely, there's some big time plays do all that too. Hey, the defense played great, set them up in some good spots. You know, yeaah, they had the Bucs number, certainly. It's just these games where we see...


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[Assistant] You know, teams take away some of the McVeigh staples and it seems to slow down the attack.


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[Assistant] And the 49ers have the formula to slow down the McVeigh attack. So we could talk about like, I wrote in my notes and I wrote, you know, hey, Jared Goff is not playing well.


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[Assistant] I wrote somewhere, I said golf not good, but Salah is all over McVay too. Like, I'm not gonna let Sean just get away with like a free pass here. What was he doing? He just has...


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[Assistant] Two things. First thing is, we talk about the run games and the boots. So effective for them and what they do to set up. So the run game, they're a big attack the weak side bubble team. The bubble again. The bubble again. The 49ers, Shanahan,


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[Assistant] Hot McVeigh, he knows some of McVeigh's tricks, they never played weak side bubbles or bubbles at all.


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[Assistant] They were, because McVeigh is such an inside outside zone run scheme offensive coordinator play caller, he doesn't have a lot of the man blocking things we've talked about to go, okay, this is tough for our zone blocking scheme to work against this front.


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[Assistant] What are we gonna go to now? Like we talked about with the Tennessee Titans, they have some other avenues they can go to. Shanahan, who's an inside outside zone guy too, if you do things to take it away, he's got man blocking schemes too. The Rams are not one of those teams.


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[Assistant] And they always, they have great understanding of how to get an extra safety or slide the linebackers the right way to take away the speed sweep.


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[Assistant] And then they don't give them those bubble opportunities, let alone they know how to, you know, in certain formations and things, I think they call


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[Assistant] They, they cause chaos by causing certain slants and, and, hey, we're gonna do a T- an end tackle twist or we're all gonna slant weak or all slant strong. It's hard to block that in zone blocking. Cause you're going, wait, if you're a guard, you might be going, hey, I gotta get over here to block this guy on my right. I gotta try to cut him out to get the outside zone scheme.


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[Assistant] And then all of a sudden, what if he slants away from you? Oh no, now I can't get out there. Or what if he slants to you and now he's this way? And now you're like, oh wait, I'm trying to block him, but now you're in the way of another guy who's coming down the line of scrimmage. So they muck it up, doing it that way.


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[Assistant] It's a great approach. Only thing I'll say is what can happen is what we saw with like the Cam Acres long run. Right. You call the right run play against all the sudden it's the right blitz and stun and you go 60 yards untouched.


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[Assistant] It is, it is fair. And you know, in the struggle like this, again, it's...


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[Assistant] You know, the two struggles you were talking about in the last four games are two good defenses. The 49ers defense, I know Nick Bost is that, they're still damn good. You know, anybody wants to watch number 90 Givens in the middle of that defense right now. He's everywhere. You know, Fred Warner.


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[Assistant] Who I hold in very high regard, the Colts game, and then I turned on the 49ers game. Very similar. And I went, oh the same guy, and I just went with Fred Warner's better.


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[Assistant] I just, that's, that's, Fred Warner's special. They have so many players there. So, what I was getting to though, those struggles we've talked about in these two and two, hey, the Dolphins defense and Brian Flores are pretty damn good, right? They know how to, they played him in the Super Bowl too, so he's got an understanding of


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[Assistant] Like what they want to do to stop some of the McVeigh stuff. And now you got a Shanahan Salah who understands it too. So,


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[Assistant] These games aren't gonna come around often is what I'm saying. This is, this is the perfect storm of yes, a skill, a teams uhm, that's built player-wise that doesn't match up great with us and they have the understanding of our scheme and it's a double whammy of Strugglesville for us on offense because of that.


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go with Derek Carr. I mean, I think Derek Carr is the better football player. Derek Carr is the guy that, you know, I know you, I told you this or you know this. With my quarterback power rankings, he was the guy I thought about, man, maybe he needs to be in the top ten. You know, I made him just on the outside looking in.


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[Assistant] Jared Goff was not in that conversation, you know, and both have pretty good support system, but Kara is to me a notch or two up as a pure passer compared to Jared Goff.


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[Assistant] Really, out of starting quarterbacks in football, I don't know if anybody throws a worse ball than Jared Goff. It never spirals, it's knucklers a lot.


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[Assistant] You know, it can be not the appropriate touch at times and things like that. It's a hard ball to catch. And of course it's not consistent always either as we see. And so yeaah, I'm going with Derek Carr there.


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[Assistant] It is. I would be shocked if they didn't make the playoffs. I really would. Again, we're keeping things in perspective here. Jared Goff is still quality quarterback and they can win a lot of games and I wouldn't be shocked if they were in the Super Bowl once again. But it's also the perfect example to go.


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[Assistant] Damn, you don't need to have Patrick Mahomes and all that all the time to win games and do that. There's more ways to do it than just like having a superstar quarterback who says get on my back and do that. You would too be shocked if they made it to the Super Bowl.


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[Assistant] Well, it's not like shocking shock. The NFC, I just, I look at the NFC as so up for grabs right now. I don't think I would be that shocked. I don't, if the matchups fell the right way, I mean why can't the Rams beat Seattle if they have to play it? We just saw them beat them two weeks ago. You know, why can't they?


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[Assistant] I think they could match up with Green Bay a little, cause what happens to me with Green Bay is I go, Green Bay can't stop the run. So I'd worry about them a little bit.


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[Assistant] And yeaah, I think they match up probably the best. That would be the worst thing for the rims.


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[Assistant] I wouldn't be surprised really of just about any matchup in the NFC.


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[Assistant] Other than anybody from the NFC East in the NFC Championship game, and I'll say the Arizona Cardinals. But if you give me Tampa, Rams, Green Bay, Seattle, New Orleans, I really wouldn't be shocked if any of those five were in the NFC Championship game.


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[Assistant] Not gonna let one game, you know, you can be a good team and match up with a team that you're better than at poorly. It's just the way the NFL works sometimes.


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[Assistant] Subpar, uhm, and you know, of course, they're trying to play conservative because they know the only way the Broncos are going to beat us is if their defense scores touchdowns. So, you know, they're going to go into the game already playing conservative and I think with that aspect of it as the week unfolds, Sean Payton probably goes, wait,


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[Assistant] Vic Fangio's pretty good and creative too. Let me not go crazy here with my new young quarterback here and try to like show the world he's ready to take everything, you know, by storm and throw lasers all over the football field. So it was dialed back, but it wasn't great by Taysom Hill. I don't care what the circumstances were.


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[Assistant] There was some concerning things about the game. You know, whether that's, you know, moments like uhm, the first third down of the game. He's got somebody right over the middle.


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[Assistant] It's, I know the read, it's a play I used to have in the Jordan Gruden offense called 25 seminal. It's in-cut by the slot receiver and then a deeper in-cut by the outside receiver. Inside receiver's open for a 12-yard gain, wide open. He's already moved to the second guy, he never even gave the first guy a chance, right? Things like that. You know, moments of looking at the pocket, you know, and


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[Assistant] Trying to catch that up and then try to look up field and throw an errant pass.


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[Assistant] Uh, there was just too many little mistakes like that with bad feel in the pocket, or I just went, man, he's not really seeing the field downfield either. Here, he's throwing a check down and I wanna go, no, that guy was open, but he didn't like it. So, it was rough around the edges is what I'm saying. It didn't give me like a warm, cozy feeling to just go,


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[Assistant] Yeah, it wasn't great stats, but he played good, he got unlucky with the interception. No, it wasn't. It was, it was shaky. And I think Sean Payton realized pretty early on that like, oh wait, he's a little shaky today and not seeing things good.


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[Assistant] Let me just run the ball, and we'll run it, run it, run it, and just every now and then we'll have him, you know, make a throw and do something like that.


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[Assistant] Not yet. Not yet. But like, if you have another performance like this, or maybe two more, I would start to concern me a little bit. You know, just to go, man, I don't know if we can just run it all day long with Taysom Hill and beat everybody in the NFC playoffs. We need to have some sort of a passing game and things like that.


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[Assistant] Yeah, I mean, there's just moments of, you know, like I said, people open downfield and then he doesn't throw it.


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[Assistant] You know, had a screenplay to Alvin Camaro one time, where he's dropping back, and I mean, if he throws it to Camaro, he's gonna run for a 70-yard touchdown. There's nobody! He's got four lead blockers, he's gonna literally just run behind them, and they're gonna run up the field for a touchdown.


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[Assistant] But he like, wasn't sure what he was seeing, and then he had to throw it away. Just a lot of weird things like that through the game where I just went, man, he is not comfortable today, at all, and it's shaky, and I think, you know, like I said, Sean Payton realized that, and he reined it in pretty quickly.


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[Assistant] We went through that in an hour. I know. I think we set a record today. It was efficient. Damn, right. Hold your applause please. Game managing here. Presented by Verizon. With 18 out of 10.


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[Assistant] Is there a theme today? Was there any theme given here? That's the theme.


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[Assistant] Ran through the tunnel. Made me cry. Overtime, divisional loss, 1989, Giants are the number two seed. Uh, the Rams are one of those teams, 88, 89 had my dad in the number. Uh, and yeaah, that was a crusher.


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[Assistant] Okay, I know, yeaah, I know, but hold on, I'm just trying to think, in that time, because Blackledge is out, that guy's, is that um, Schlichter? Arch Schlichter? No, that's a good guess, he was more early 80's. He was a little earlier? Okay.


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[Assistant] Chuck Long. Chuck Long. Yeah, I wouldn't have came to that. That's the only reason. You know, I sometimes forget he was a first round pick.


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[Assistant] Brandon Whedon, here we go, I'm on fire, 2-0. I thought you might go like Charlie Fry, Bruce Gregg. Name went through my head, Fry went through my head, Brady Quinn was the next one that went through my head. But I don't know why, but with Gordon, Whedon seemed to be the quarterback.


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[Assistant] He's on the Lions. Who was the quarterback? Nobody can stop the Bobby Lane to Cloyce Box connection. So easy. Nobody can stop that. I thought there was no way. Texas. Lane to Box. You know, I know my Texas quarterbacks. Oh, that's right. Bobby Lane, Texas Ties. I ain't gonna forget about that. Alright.


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[Assistant] He was one of those guys, I was going, man, I hope I can be as good as him one day when I was down there at that school. So, yeaah, I mean, he's- People still talk about Bobby Lane. Definitely, and you know, Texas does a great job of just keeping the history of the program throughout our facility, pictures and everything like that, and, man, Bobby Lane? Yeaah, come on.


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[Assistant] No, no, it's my draft class, or no, he's the year after me. He's the year after me. I played against him my senior year at Texas.


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[Assistant] He was a junior at Tulane. Uh, you know what? I mean they were good, but they weren't like, they kind of gave us a few little issues that day. I mean, we won comfortably, but it wasn't like, oh, we steamrolled them. We had to work for it a little bit. We ended up winning by like 20 or 25.


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[Assistant] It was like that and they came out and it was like, whoa, they're playing some differences that are different than us. And whoa, this quarterback over there, he could throw the ball a little bit. Like it caught us by surprise. It took us a little while to settle into the game. You went out for dinner with your family after you weren't that happy. Cause it was in New Orleans. So we had to play there in this empty Superdome.


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[Assistant] I don't know why. They must have paid us 70 zillion dollars. I don't know. I don't know.


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[Assistant] Yeah. Unbuttoned ever. Thank you. Most efficient ever. No doubt about it. Good job. Hope everybody enjoyed it. Hope we answered all the questions out there. Uhm, again, stay with us. Keep sending questions social media wise. I, Pete, will do the best we can to answer some of the good ones out there and give you some football X's and O's.


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[Assistant] Have a good week. Enjoy Wednesday afternoon football. I can't wait. Oh, I'm going, I'm going Steelers. I don't think they're going to steamroll them.


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[Assistant] That's what you're saying? They struggle early and then boom, boom away? Okay, there you go. Paulie Burmeister, he's got it. Alright, everybody be good.


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[Assistant] Chris Sims on Button, presented by Verizon. Tomorrow, PFT, PM, Chris Sims on Button collaboration. The MegaPix Podcast, telling you, listen, you know, again, I don't know what game to bet on, but I picked the winners and the losers pretty damn good. And then you can figure out what to bet on. Peace out, I'm done, Paulie, you're awesome. Good to see you, man.


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[Assistant] Thursday edition of PFTPM in season. That means it's the joint MegaPix podcast, PFTPM Chris Sims unbuttoned. He's Chris Sims. I'm Mike Florio. We're with you for the next hour to tell you what we think about all 14 games to be played in week 10, straight up picks against the spread


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[Assistant] I have no idea what my best bets are gonna be right now. I will know them by the time we're done. It's driven by gut feeling. And last week...


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[Assistant] The guts feeling worked out pretty well, baby. 3-0. Redeeming myself for the pathetic 0-3 from the week before. But Christopher, how about this? First of all, the evil Roger Goodell twin brother photo is back because you were bad last week.


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[Assistant] Against the spread. What's up with you and the spread, man? 10 and 4 straight up.


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[Assistant] Let me just add one thing before we get to the games because I'm driving the bus this week by virtue of winning the against the spread competition and the best bet since you were


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[Assistant] One and two. Can we put the graphic back up? Because I, I, I really do think at some point we are going to have to have a full and complete audit of Pete Demolitus' work.


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[Assistant] Because whether it's a recount, whether I have to go to court,


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[Assistant] And this is a strange weekend, thanks to the Masters. This is the first time I've ever seen football.


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[Assistant] Blink an eye when golf is involved, but the NFL is loading up the late afternoon schedule because the Masters is on early afternoon.


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[Assistant] We have to do our work to prepare for Football Night in America. The more games that are played late, the harder it is for us to know what the hell is going on. Especially because I'm trying to get people on the phone. Kinda hard to get guys from the late games on the phone.


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[Assistant] During the show. Right. Not the easiest thing to do, but, uh, that's okay. First world problems to the extreme. Let's get to the 1pm games, and let's begin. Well, actually, we got Thursday Night Football. How can we, how can I forget Thursday Night Football? I don't know, you're not that smart.


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[Assistant] I think being around you for three years is kind of reduced. I'm playing down to the level of competition as they would say. The Colts and the Titans tonight.


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[Assistant] On, uh, Fox and all the various other networks the game is on, Titan's only favored by one. That means on a neutral site, the Colts would be a two point favorite. Are you kidding me?


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[Assistant] Ravens on Sunday. They were. It all fell apart with that Jonathan Taylor fumble that was returned for a touchdown by Chuck Clark. And then after that in the second half, the Ravens really woke it up.


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[Assistant] This to me, Chris, falls into the potential for one loss becoming two. Yeaah. That it's such a short turnaround and the cult's


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[Assistant] It may go down to the wire, but I think that the Titans prevail, maybe a light touchdown.


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[Assistant] I've got 27-20 Tennessee. I think Derrick Henry, we've seen what he can do in a big spot. It was that Thursday night game. November of 2018, I believe, where he busted out against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think it's time.


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[Assistant] For the Titans to reestablish themselves because they're starting to fade. You know, it was that, that belief Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, the top four teams without question, the FC, they're starting to fade out of that.


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[Assistant] Team we saw get blown off the field on Sunday night, the Tampa Bay back Buccaneers, they head to Carolina as five and a half point favorites over a three and six Panthers team that won't have Christian McCaffrey, at least for this week. There's now indications maybe he'll be back by week 11. Chris, who do you like?


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[Assistant] And the Bucs to win. The Panthers did not embarrass themselves against the Bucs back in week two, but this is a bounce back game. And I think this is a no more bull crap game from Bruce Arians. Forget about this. Antonio Brown back and forth between him and Tom Brady. They are gonna get back to basics, I believe. And Brady will sign on for it.


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[Assistant] To get things back on the right track. They need to gain ground on the Saints. They've lost the tiebreaker to the Saints. They've got to find a way to pick up two games.


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[Assistant] Over the next eight weeks on the Saints in order to win the division. It's not going to be easy to do. They've got to win this one. I like the Buccaneers 28 to 17. I agree with you. They're going to rediscover that formula where they run the ball. They pass off of that. They take some heat off of Tom Brady. Protect him a little bit better. Give him some time.


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[Assistant] And, and I, I just think that, that for the Panthers, look, they, they were


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[Assistant] Very respectable early in the year, but it's just kind of starting to fall apart. They gave the Chiefs their best shot last week. I guess you could find confidence in that, but at the same time, I think the Panthers know that it's just not going to happen for them this year, where the Buccaneers are feeling true desperation. They need this one badly. 2817 bucks over Panthers. Next up, the Houston Texans.


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[Assistant] After a dysfunctional couple of days with the firing of PR director Amy Palchik, which triggered a reaction that I don't think anyone in Houston would have estimated, they go to Cleveland to take on the Browns. The Browns are only a three point favorite. They're calling for wind.


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[Assistant] We saw what happened to the Browns the last time they played in the wind at home. They lost 16-6 to the LA, or LA, not LA, not Oakland, Las Vegas Raiders. Who do you like when the Texans take on the Browns?


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[Assistant] They're coming off of a two week break. They've got the dysfunction flowing from the firing of Amy Palchic. I don't know whether or not that's a factor, but there are guys in the locker room who are pissed off about it. You know, some old wounds from some of the stuff that went on back in 2017. That may be resurfacing.


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[Assistant] I like the Browns. I like the Browns too. To win a game they're supposed to win. They win the games they're supposed to win. They lose the games they're supposed to lose. I have the Browns winning this one, 27 to 17, covering the spread and moving to 6 and 3, Chris.


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[Assistant] You know, the Dark Sky app was recommended to me by our boss, Sam Flood, a couple of years ago. NASCAR uses it to know when it's going to start raining at a race. So that's, I guess, the best endorsement you can give it. Yeah. Okay, Washington at Detroit. Ford Field. Washington reeling after losing to the Giants, trying to find their footing. The Lions have lost two in a row. They're four and a half point favorites. Who do you like?


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[Assistant] Well let me tell you this, and this is one of those games where I let the heart sometimes overtake the head. And since I'm 28 games behind you in the standings, according to Pete, I better start swinging for the fences.


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[Assistant] You give Alex Smith a week to get ready, as opposed to being thrust into service as he was twice this year when Kyle Allen was injured. You give him the full week to get ready, he's going to be better. Some of the mistakes that will go on his stat sheet, interceptions from last week, really weren't like him making a horrible throw. It was just kind of a crap happens type of a play. I'm, I'm


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[Assistant] I've seen enough from the lines the last two weeks to feel like they're starting to disintegrate and Washington still has something to play for between Alex Smith. This is the two year kind of anniversary of his broken leg. It's not to the day, but it's 104 weeks since it happened. Ron Rivera coming


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[Assistant] Going to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers, who had a few extra days of rest, not that they need it, to take on the Jaguars. It's Luke Jayton. I mean, Jake Luton against


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[Assistant] Aaron Rodgers, who do you got and why? Well, I mean, duh, duh, duh, duh. I mean, we know who we got. It's just who's in the who, how much do they blow them out by?


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[Assistant] Is, is this one where all the media takes the Packers, and if somehow the Jaguars pull a rabbit out of their butts, they're gonna troll all the media for picking the Packers, like how dare we pick the Packers, is that gonna happen?


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[Assistant] 4420 is my pick. Packers, obviously, over the Jaguars. Wow. Let's move on to a battle in the NFC East. Once upon a time a great rivalry, but this year none of the rovers are worth a crap in the NFC East. Philadelphia minus three at the New York Giants. Who do you like?


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[Assistant] Same differential, more points for me. Eagles 30, Giants 23 for all the reasons you suggested. And the Eagles had two weeks to get ready for this game. To the extent that Doug Peterson has some of that Andy Reid influence from his time with Reid and what you do during the bye week and to prepare to get ready to win the game on the back end. Maybe that helps.


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[Assistant] Doug Peterson, Brett Favre, conspiracy theory that I kind of threw against the wall that Favre said the Eagles should have kept Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz as a way to get Wentz motivated. I'm kidding about that, but I think they'll come out and they'll be better and they'll go to, uh, well, I don't even know what their record will be. They'll still be in first place in the NFC East. And I say 30 to 23 Eagles over the Giants.


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[Assistant] There's your weekday lineup on Peacock's NBC Sports Channel. And the most important line right in the middle. Watch now. It's free. Free and easy and we hope to see you there each and every weekday.


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[Assistant] 4pm Eastern or what, it's either 4 or 5 or 425 depending upon which network has the doubleheader that week. Buffalo and Arizona getting together. Your boy blue against my boy red. We've got a bet premised on


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[Assistant] Me wearing the Josh Allen jersey if the Bills win. You wearing the Kyler Murray jersey if the Cardinals win. I have a feeling I know who you're gonna pick. Well, yes. Tell me why you think the Bills are gonna win.


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[Assistant] I had in my notes Bills 27, Cardinals, no, I initially had Bills 27, Bills 24.


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[Assistant] Which, which was a mistake. And I don't care about the spirit of our bet. I picked the Bills to win. I don't know where this bet came from. Tyler Murray is my favorite player in the NFL right now, but I'm picking the Bills to win the game.


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[Assistant] Just because there's something about the Cardinals that I can't consistently trust. Right. And the bills just, and look, maybe I'm...


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[Assistant] You know what? Screw it. I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with the spirit of the bat. I can't do it. I can't do it.


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[Assistant] I'll go Cardinals 27, Bills 24 just to make it more interesting, uh, because I'd rather be wrong that way than pick the Bills if my guy Kyler and company are gonna come through. So give me Cardinals 27, Bills 24, final answer.


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[Assistant] Short Cliff Kingsbury, please, if you're not gonna let Kyler Murray run it, line him up under center and hand it off.


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[Assistant] Don't do the flat-footed shotgun handoff on fourth and short. Please. They did that last week. Don't do that. I don't know why Kyle Murray won't line up under center other than he literally would be under center.


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[Assistant] Broncos make their first trip ever to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. Raiders are favored by four and a half.


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[Assistant] We got 2820 Raiders, so you are picking the Broncos to cover by a half point. You're aware of that. I'm gonna give you one chance to change it.


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[Assistant] Do you want to stick with Broncos covering the 4.5 point spread?


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[Assistant] I got Raiders 28, Broncos 20. My only concern is the Raiders may be peeking ahead to the rematch with the Chiefs.


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[Assistant] Last week's win over the Chargers gives you a little bit of that horseshoe up the butt glow. And you start to believe that something good is happening this year for a team that's five and three, and I don't know how much better they would be if they hadn't dealt with all the COVID issues, but they wouldn't be worse than five and three. Maybe they'd be six and two.


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[Assistant] They are a team to take seriously to hold the tiebreaker over the Browns, which may come in handy when it's time to figure out the seventh seed in the AFC.


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[Assistant] I like the Raiders in this one. Because I can't trust the Broncos, I never know what Broncos team is going to show up. So give me the Raiders, that's the safer pick, 28 to 20.


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[Assistant] Seahawks and the Rams. The Rams favored by two against Seattle. This is a game with first place in the NFC West on the line. And the Rams, if they lose...


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[Assistant] They're, they're out of the top seven altogether, potentially. So, uh, high stakes for the Rams. They had the week off to get ready for it. Who do you like and why?


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[Assistant] 21 players on the injury report as of Wednesday. Now, most, not most of them, but the plurality of them fully participated in practice, but they do have question marks still at running back.


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[Assistant] And Snax Harrison expected to debut this weekend for the Seahawks, which helps. Carlos Dunlap.


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[Assistant] After losing last week, I mean Russell Wilson doesn't lose two in a row very often. And we saw how he recovered from the loss to the Cardinals with the game against the 49ers. This one they know, they're aware that everything they've worked to build is potentially going to fall apart to the point where they could risk losing the division.


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[Assistant] I think they, they, this is a Pete Carroll and company find a way game. They find a way to make it happen. They find a way to score one more point. It may not be pretty. It may be exciting and it may look at times like the Rams are going to win, but I just, I feel like the Seahawks.


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[Assistant] I don't know how good, I don't know how good I feel about it. It's not going to be one of my best bets. I have a feeling it's not going to be one of yours, but that should make for a great game. I don't think we really know what's going to happen.


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[Assistant] Chargers at Dolphins, Dolphins favored by Two and a Half, aka Vegas doesn't know what the hell's gonna happen in this one's spread, which is surprising, because the Chargers are Two and Six, and the Dolphins have been coming along, but Justin Herbert's so far better than Tua Tonga Vailoa, they meet for the first time. This one's not an easy one either, who do you think?


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[Assistant] It's funny that you said negative ghostwriter, although you find a way to say it pretty much every day on the air, because as you were saying it, I was trying to think...


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[Assistant] of the demeanor that Anthony Lin must have with his team given all the crazy stuff that's happened and just as you were saying it


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[Assistant] I'm going 3121. I think this is something that's going to change the narrative quickly and dramatically about Tua. Yeah, Tua was great last week, but on the same field as Justin Herbert, this is Herbert's chance. And if you're ever going to push this guy's buttons, it's, hey, you're getting, you know, they could have taken you and they didn't.


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[Assistant] And what are you gonna do about that, Justin Herbert? So I, I, look, that two and a half point spread in your characterization, and I think you're right, Vegas doesn't know what the hell's gonna happen. Right. Most people are gonna take the Dolphins. I think the smart money's gonna be on the Chargers, cause they're good enough to win this game, and I think they will. They are.


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[Assistant] Here's one that was one of the great games of the year in 2019. 49ers at Saints. 49ers still very banged up. Saints a 9 point favorite coming off of that 38-3 thrashing of the Bucks. Who do you like? Are you gonna pick against your guy?


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[Assistant] I'm going 30-20, Saints, Mike. I don't think there's any way they lose this game.


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[Assistant] I got 34-17, same score, the 49ers lost by last week, and I think the Saints are riding high, and dear Saints, if you lose this game,


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[Assistant] Oh boy, nine points is a lot to give, Chris, especially when the Steelers have usually won their games by nine or less. Uh, who do you like? Yeah, I mean,


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[Assistant] Yeah, look, I, I, I learned the hard way several weeks ago when I took the Browns to beat the Steelers, I thought the Browns were ready, the Steelers hadn't beaten anyone convincingly. Then I had faith in the Steelers after that, when they went to Tennessee, when they went to Baltimore, even though they were grossly outplayed and they won the game, I got that one right, but you know what?


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[Assistant] This team isn't going 16-0. This team is gonna lose at some point, and I think it happens now. I'm feeling good this week. I'm willing to put it out there. I don't care. Hey, I'm 65 and 47 straight up. I may as well take my chances, right Pete? I'm 85 and 47, which does sound a hell of a lot better once you say 65.


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[Assistant] I'm going Bengals 27-24. I believe in Joe Burrow. I'm not saying that this takes anything away from the Steelers. They're still one of the best teams in the NFL, but they aren't gonna win every game. And I think Joe Burrow is gonna be determined to start his career with his first trip to Pittsburgh.


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[Assistant] With a win and this Rothlisberger combination of the COVID-19 reserve list and the knees injury, not knee, knees injury.


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[Assistant] I'm going to take the Bengals. Yes I am. Because you know what? If I get it right, I'm going to feel great about it forever. If I get it wrong, move on to next week.


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[Assistant] BFTPM and Christian Zumbutton continue with the Thursday MegaPix Podcast, Primetime Games, Sunday night, Monday night, both.


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[Assistant] I think should be entertaining. The Baltimore Ravens traveled to England last year.


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[Assistant] New England was undefeated midway through the season. People were talking about maybe they go 16-0 again and the Ravens put an end to that. Now the Ravens is the better team. Seven point favorites on the road in New England. Chris, can New England stay within seven? Can New England actually find a way to win?


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[Assistant] I don't want to be influenced by the fact that the Patriots found a way to win the other night, because it was against a bad Jets team, but it was everything the Jets could throw at them, and Joe Flacco isn't nearly as bad as people think, and I think the Ravens win.


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[Assistant] But I think Belichick and company find a way to keep it close and keep it interesting. That seven point spread to me is too much. I've got 24-20, but I agree with you. If the Ravens can run the ball,


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[Assistant] And I don't think the Patriots can stop them from running the ball, even if Mark Ingram doesn't play. And there are indications he will be back. He returned to practice yesterday. He's missed a couple of games with an ankle injury. But between him, Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Lamar Jackson,


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[Assistant] Just a relentless pounding, pounding, pounding, pounding, get the lead, hold the lead and get out of New England at seven and two. So I like the Ravens 24 to 20 in our Sunday night game. The Ravens had a positive COVID-19 result today too. So that's something to keep an eye on. We may end up, we may end up with a flippy flip.


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[Assistant] Minnesota Vikings, two wins in a row. Dalvin Cook running wild. 225 plus yards from scrimmage in consecutive games. Six touchdowns in two games. The Bears have lost three in a row. The Vikings have struggled at Soldier Field.


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[Assistant] Last year, the Bears shut down to Alvin Cook, hold him to 35 yards rushing and it sparked that hole.


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[Assistant] Stefan Diggs disappeared for a couple of days and Adam Thielen called out Kirk Cousin. So, can the Bears stymie the Vikings again and get their season back on the right track, Chris?


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[Assistant] You know, I look at that, Minnesota favored by two and a half. Now if the home team's favored by two and a half, Vegas doesn't know what the hell's gonna happen. If the road team's favored by two and a half, I think it's a trap. I got the Bears 1916. I just...


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[Assistant] I love being right. I love being right. I've gone out on a limb. I'm never gonna go out on a limb for the Vikings again, even though I've got the Paul Allen gift that he sent to me in this. This is great. This is so comfortable. I could sleep in this. I could like wear this all the time. But for the fact that it would reek within 24 hours, I would wear it all the time.


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[Assistant] After being in lockstep for the past few weeks, we disagree on five games straight up this week. Will we agree on any of our best bets? It's time to unveil and also figure out what our best bets are. Chris, what do you have first?


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[Assistant] Let's start with the one I feel best about and work my way down. Cleveland Browns giving three to the Houston Texans. The Texans feel extremely dysfunctional right now. The Browns have played in that wind. As you said, the Browns can run, the Texans can't. That's the difference on a windy day. Give me the Browns.


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[Assistant] Next one for me is your guy Aaron Rodgers giving points to the Jaguars. Even though it's gonna be windy and cold and nasty there, they went through a game like that against the Vikings. I think they learned from that experience. They are not gonna step in a pothole against the Jaguars. They're gonna get up early, they're gonna hold on, and I think the Packers easily cover the 13-point spread.


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[Assistant] Last one for me, and I may regret this, but I'm going all in with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers giving five and a half points to the Carolina Panthers. Tommy!


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[Assistant] Let's do it. Let's go to Thursday night's game. Thursday night's game.


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[Assistant] Uh, then Monday night, your damn Vikings and Kirk cousins decided to show up in prime time for the first time this decade. And that screwed up one of my best bets. I was feeling real good. I was going, Oh, this is playing out just the way I think 1310.


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[Assistant] Bears are going to slowly wear them down. I got it just where I want it. Wrong, wrong. But hey.


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[Assistant] Just so you know, you're still awesome. You're still big time. And for this podcast, you're also sponsored by Verizon. So don't worry. All right, man. We're all good. What if I don't want to be tough? You are for this one. Nothing you can do.


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[Assistant] You're right. Another example of why it's, I just can't imagine gambling lots of money on these games and the NFL where it's so close. You don't know the real history of these injuries and what's going on during the week, the weather, all those things. And I'm my best bets, man.


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[Assistant] I give you credit, you're good at picking them out every week. I can never pick the right one. It's unbelievable. It just drives me crazy and I've fallen apart, uh, lately. But as always...


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[Assistant] Odds are provided by Points Bet Sportsbook here at NBC. Whenever you hear us talking gambling or lines, it's been provided by Points Bet Sportsbook. So.


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[Assistant] Thursday Night Football. This is awesome. We got a real game. It's got implications. It's in Seattle. It's not that long after Arizona beat Seattle. This is, this is big football tonight.


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[Assistant] Who are you going with? Dangerous or your little friend Kyler Murray?


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[Assistant] Well, it is, it is that kind of game. Like, I mean, I agree with you. There's, there's nowhere you can just look at it and go, oh, well, just because of this matchup, I think this team clearly has the advantage. No, there's too many things. It's very evenly matched game in a lot of ways. And let's not forget, I mean, yeah, the first time the Cardinals won,


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[Assistant] The Seahawks were this close to really kind of putting them in a tough spot, late third quarter, early fourth quarter, where it was going to be like, I don't know if they can really come back here.


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[Assistant] Cardinals are playing better now than they were then. And Seattle is playing lesser now than they were then. But, Carlos Hyde is back tonight.


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[Assistant] I gotta think there's a little bit of a, let's get back into the run, running the football, just enough.


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[Assistant] To where teams just can't always play coverage, always play coverage. You heard me today on this show say if you're going to throw it all game long against the Cardinals.


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[Assistant] You're, you're playing risky business because they are good in the secondary. Vance Joseph is very creative. The things they do there. They got a lot of linebackers slash defensive end type guys where you don't know if they're going to blitz or drop back and do all of those things. And I think the best way to combat that is to run the football a little bit and take away some of that creative nature there.


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[Assistant] Jamal Adams back, you know, him being around Kyler Murray. Listen, I'm like you. It's a little bit of like, close your eyes, throw the ball, throw the dart at the dart board. We'll see what happens. I'm going to go the other way.


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[Assistant] I'm going to go, I just can't see Seattle losing four out of five. So I'm going to play the odds of I think they find a way to win this football game at home. Russ takes care of the football like you close as hell, but I'm going to go Seahawks 30 to 28.


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[Assistant] I, I, I, so I originally had a three point win for Seattle. I had this happen to me and I just went, okay, I don't want to have a push, so what am I going to do? Do I think it's more likely that the card, you know, Seattle's down and scores late to just go ahead?


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[Assistant] Or, you know, do they win by more that convincingly? So I went with the close one and that's why I, yeah, the Cardinals covering, but we'll see. I am excited to watch this one tonight. I mean.


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[Assistant] Definitely two of the five best quarterbacks in the game right now. You know, both are in the MVP conversation. And I think if Kyler Murray had a real big game tonight, like statistically, and they win, I think he catapults right up into Mahomes, Rogers, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, top four MVP guys. And that'll be interesting to see tonight too.


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[Assistant] He's already top four, I think he goes to top two if he wants tonight. Right, you're right, I forgot, he is up in the top four. Uhm, alright, so, you ready for 1pm football now? Let's do it. Here we go, we got another big one. I mean, holy cow, Batman. Titans, Baltimore.


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[Assistant] Raven, sitting there, both at 6 and 3, both reeling a little bit. I mean, you go 6 and 4 in the AFC, you're fighting an uphill battle into getting the playoffs right now. Baltimore's favored by 6 and a half. I'm still shocked by that. Over-under at 49. Mike?


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[Assistant] Do you think Baltimore can put to sleep the demons of playoff past against the


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[Assistant] Yeah, this is an interesting one. Again, I think it's a very evenly matched football game. Uh, I do. I think the Titans match up with the Ravens in a lot of ways that are positive for them.


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[Assistant] You know, one thing I want to ask you why we're sitting here too, what's the, we know we got the no Coleus Campbell. We saw that was an issue last week for, for the Baltimore Ravens. You know, Brandon Williams, he came out of the game at one point. Do you know what his status is right now? Just as we're talking and I'll continue to talk maybe why you can look at all, all,


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[Assistant] I'll say this. When I look at this game, the Titans, ever since they lost to your Minnesota Vikings earlier in the year, right? They've been pretty damn good on run defense. They got a lot of big ones.


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[Assistant] I know. Oh, you're sorry. They won by a point. You're right. I'm sorry, but got run over by Dalvin Cook and company. And that's what I meant to say. And that fact ever since then, they've really gotten better at run defense. Now they have past defense issues. We know that, but, but the Ravens aren't a good passing football team.


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[Assistant] You know, so that to me there goes into a little bit like last week where Vrabel's gonna look at New England things on film and go, wait, I know how to coach that and do that and okay. All right.


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[Assistant] So I give them a real advantage there this time around, uh, as far as slowing down the run, predictable pass game helps them there. Hey, on the other side of the ball, you're right. The Ravens are special and that, that offensive Titans attack has certainly sputtered. Uhm, but the way


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[Assistant] New England ran the ball on Baltimore last week. I gotta think that the Titans are going to see some of that.


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[Assistant] I gotta think that the Titans in their, you know, long week off after playing Thursday night football realized that there's gotta be a little more to the offense. There's gotta be more than just.


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[Assistant] Derrick Henry, Derrick Henry, play action pass off the same run we've looked. Oh, back to Derrick Henry, play action pass off of the Derrick Henry run we just looked. There's gotta be something else to defend there.


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[Assistant] So we'll see. I think that'll be a big aspect of the game too. I'm gonna go opposite of you here again. So we're going, we're going opposites. I'm going Titans. I am. I just have more, a little more faith in their offense right now than I do Baltimore's.


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[Assistant] And I'm not saying a lot there, but I also just think they match up well, and I think they have the coaching staff, especially in the defensive side of the ball, to slow down the Ravens things that we see so successful against most teams. I'm going Titans 23-20.


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[Assistant] That's right. That's why I thought maybe the line was a little misleading in that way to go like, Hey, the Titans weren't like physically beat around last week. I mean, they just, yeah, you're exactly right. They're special teams and they just messed up some situations. All right.


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[Assistant] Go to the next one. Here we go. We got the Lions at the Carolina Panthers. Carolina favored by one and a half over under at 48 Mike. Uh, Panthers coming off a loss, Lions coming off a win. What do you think goes down in this one?


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[Assistant] Well, I have Panthers 24, Lions 21. I-I-I see the sa- Lions defense ain't good enough.


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[Assistant] You know, that, that Panthers offense can do a little bit of both.


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[Assistant] Uh, I think they're going to be able to move the ball on that Lions defense, certainly. And yeah, I'm sure the Lions will make some plays against Carolina too, but I, I'm with you. I think this is a week finally that Carolina who's played some good football through their losing streak, they find a way to win this football game.


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[Assistant] Uh, because I just don't know if it's a Lions offense that's good enough to really take advantage of some of the flaws that Panther's defense has. So okay, we're both on the same one there. Now, let's go to the Eagles. The ugly freakin' Eagles against, yes, the 6-3 Browns at home. Browns favored by 3, over-under at 47.5, Mike. Think there's any way the Eagles pulled this off?


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[Assistant] I, uh, you know, you said a lot of good things. I have no faith in the Philadelphia Eagles either. It's just, it's hard to really pick them. It really is.


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[Assistant] They have problems stopping the run. We know that. That's not good against Cleveland. Now where I think the line might be a little closer than we expect is because of this aspect, at least, at least what jumps out to me. Eagles are a good pass defense.


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[Assistant] You know, and Cleveland is not a creative pass offense, you know, there are a lot like


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[Assistant] You're Minnesota Vikings. The pass offense doesn't really work unless the run game works.


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[Assistant] I think that the Eagles will be able to slow down that attack in the run game to where they, they get gashed, but not like so gashed that you're just like, whoa, they're getting pulverized into the ground that way.


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[Assistant] I think they'll be a little there because of the fact that Schwartz will have a little freedom of going, huh, I'm not worried about them doing some things that other teams have done to us in the past game.


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[Assistant] You know, and the other aspect of it too, to where I also just, you know, you gotta pick Cleveland. Cleveland.


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[Assistant] Great front four. We always talk about not great in pass coverage. Well, who cares? I mean, Philadelphia can't throw the ball. It's, it's not good schematically. It's not great personnel. Everything we talk. How can you trust Carson Wentz?


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[Assistant] You know, we know that pass rush can get to quarterback. There'll be a round Carson wins. That usually means he throws stupid interceptions and things like that. I'm going to pick a close one because I think the Eagles are desperate, but I'm going to go Brown's 21-20, uh, with a lot of the same thoughts that you had.


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[Assistant] Needle thread. Alright. The old needler. I'm back baby, that's right. Dr. Needle. Dr. Needle. Alright, here we go. New England. Going to Houston.


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[Assistant] Patriots favored by 2, over, under, at 49. Mike, I'll lead this off, uhm, if you don't mind, just cause to break up the monotony of you first, then me second.


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[Assistant] Houston Texans defense. Man, do you think they got any chance to stop in this Patriots run game? I don't think so. I really don't.


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[Assistant] So between that and the fact that they're going to be able to control the clock, pound the Texans into oblivion, and then the Texans can't run and they just really, the only thing they do effectively is throw the football with Watson. And I think the Patriots have the formula there. So to make it short and sweet, I'm going with the Patriots. It might not look pretty, but I'm going to pick them to win 27-21 on the road.


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[Assistant] I'm also with you that in bright lights flashing to me, that is one of the games I've starred as well for best bets.


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[Assistant] Uh, so I'm with you there. Alright, let's go to, uh, Steelers. Jacksonville. Jacksonville's got no chance. They're underdogs by 10 points. Uh, they've got no chance. Let me mention that again. The over-unders at 46 and a half, they've got no chance. How much do you have the Steelers winning by?


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[Assistant] Yeah, I, I just, I, I don't see really how the Jaguars can pull this off either. I mean, I, I'm with you there. I mean, first off, you know, yeah, they kept it close against Green Bay in company last week with, you know, Green Bay starting corners not in the game. They didn't play.


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[Assistant] Green Bay's run defense is not good. You know, it's set up.


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[Assistant] For, yeaah, we got a rookie quarterback and a few talented guys on offense to keep a game close that way. Let alone, let's not forget that Green Bay came out in the second half, 17-10 lead. It's going to be a big pass play to Devonte Adams. The ball gets fumbled. That evens the game up. I just don't see Pittsburgh making any of those mistakes, and Pittsburgh's better than Green Bay.


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[Assistant] And yeaah, they could be either way, it could be a let down from last week, or even if you're feeling good and cocky and like, hey, we played with the Packers, it just doesn't mean crap against this group. And then the Jaguars defense...


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[Assistant] You know, yeaah, they're not good at anything. So...


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[Assistant] You know, they're, they're, to me, just eventually the Steelers just wear them down. Kind of the way we always see them. Defense dominant, offense kind of meh at first. And then they get a feel for how they attack you, and then they put the pedal to the metal just a little bit more and they pull away. I'm, I'm gonna go, uhm,


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[Assistant] Where is my pick here? Here we go, Steelers 28-17 winning this football game. And to your point about, yeaah, they fell asleep at the wheel a little bit a few weeks ago in Cowboys. I would have a hard time thinking they'd fall into that trap again. They probably learned their lesson there. Uhm, so alright, we're both on the Steelers, there we go.


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[Assistant] Ready for the next one? Falcon Saints? Let's do it. Alright. Saints favored by five. They're at home over under at 50. Falcons coming off of bye week. Falcons played the Saints tough last year. Let's not forget about that. Mike, how do you see this one unfolding?


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[Assistant] James Winston. I am, and that's how I'm betting on the game as of right now and picking the game. And I'm with you in a lot of ways where, you know, again, I'm not trying to say James Winston is better than Drew Brees. I will say, I bet you there's a part of Atlanta


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[Assistant] That's disappointed, it's gonna be Jameis Winston. And not from the fact that, oh no, but it's just, it changes the formula and how the offense works.


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[Assistant] Atlanta Raheem Morris, they gave that offense issues last year. Raheem Morris understands the Sean Payton offense. You've heard me say that before. There's a lot of similarities to Gruden. Raheem spent a lot of years on the Gruden coaching staff. So he understands the rules and everything that go on with that.


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[Assistant] You know, now some of that passing game of course is still gonna be there, but you do have to worry about some more aggressive passing plays being called now with Jameis Winston in there as well. Which changes the dynamic, and I think unlike last year, I'm expecting Jameis Winston


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[Assistant] And I think we will see the taste of Hill sprinkled in. He won't be just, oh, he's the backup quarterback. We can't risk putting him out there. I think it's, it's too much a part of the offense right now. And I think he'll want to do that to take the pressure off of Jameis Winston, who didn't get to play preseason in this offense, hasn't done anything for 10 weeks, but ultimately the Saints are a better football team.


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[Assistant] I, I, I don't envision this being high scoring though. That's where I guess I look at the line and I'm a little different where I go, man, favored by five, okay, but over, under at fifty.


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[Assistant] Uh, I, I feel like this is one of those games where both teams know each other really well and it'll be a little bit more low scoring than we expect. I'm going Saints 23 to 17 here. And I have my eye on the under there as a possibility for one of my bets, best bets. Yeaah. Interesting. I know. Alright.


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[Assistant] Washington's defense is good. Joe Burrow and that offense slipped up last week, Mike. You think they get back on track in this one?


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[Assistant] I'm gonna go the opposite here though. I'm gonna go with Washington winning this one.


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[Assistant] Cincinnati, the passing game, they live and die by Joe Burrow in the shotgun right now. I just think that's a little too one-dimensional against this Washington football team defense. I do. You know, I'm very impressed with what they do on the defensive side of the ball. You know, their biggest issue, of course, is their lack of offense at times that continually wears their defense out.


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[Assistant] Bangles defense, not great. I think Alex Smith and company will be able to do just enough. And I think the defense will keep Joe burrow and his playmaking in check with that great front four. They're pretty good in coverage in the backend. I'm going to go with the football team wins 20 to 17 over Joe burrow and the bangles. Anything else you want to say?


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[Assistant] Clean five head. Gotta go clean five head. Yea, yea, I can't stand that shaggy picture. I wish they would change that one, certainly.


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[Assistant] Hey, at least I have two pictures on that graphic. I mean, there's only one of you. That must say a lot. They must have been like, whoa, whoa, that's too many floral faces on there. Let's just put a logo. Are you done? I'm done now. You ready? Yes. All right. Here we go. Afternoon games.


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[Assistant] Fun to watch right now. It seems like they have a little bit of like the belief that you've talked about with the Cardinals where it's just like right now it feels like when they step on the field, they think they're going to win the game. I think it's cool to watch a young team kind of go through that transition on the road.


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[Assistant] Against the Denver Broncos, points bet's got the Dolphins favored by three points here. All right. Over, under at 45 and a half Mike. Will the Dolphins win? Will they cover?


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[Assistant] Yeaah, I mean, I-I-I agree. I was a little shocked by that too. And the way the Dolphins defense is playing, Drew Lock has been careless with the football.