Logistic regression models that included covariates of age , height , sex , baseline weight , target energy intake , percent weight loss , and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1 , 2 , and 3 that predicted the probability of losing < 5 % of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic ( ROC ) curves , area under the curve ( AUC ) , and thresholds were calculated for each model .