The Poynter Institute Menu Donate State Editions * California * Florida * Iowa * Michigan * New Hampshire * New York * North Carolina * Pennsylvania * Texas * West Virginia * Wisconsin Issues * All Issues * Online hoaxes * Coronavirus * Health Care * Immigration * Extremism * Taxes * Marijuana * Environment * Crime * Guns * Foreign Policy * LGBTQ+ People * Joe Biden * Kamala Harris * Donald Trump * Mitch McConnell * Hakeem Jeffries * Ron DeSantis Media * PunditFact * Tucker Carlson * Sean Hannity * Rachel Maddow * Bloggers * PolitiFact Videos Campaigns * 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter * True * Mostly True * Half True * Mostly False * False * Pants on Fire Promises * Biden Promise Tracker * Trump-O-Meter * Obameter * Latest Promises About Us * Our Process * Our Staff * En Español * Who pays for PolitiFact? * Advertise with Us * Suggest a Fact-check * Corrections and Updates * Newsletters Donate #### Follow us The Facts Newsletter Sign up English Español ### Stand up for the facts! Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy. We need your help. More Info ### I would like to contribute One Time Monthly Yearly Join Now ![](\\" ![](\\" Franklin Graham stated on April 17, 2020 in a Facebook post: Even with no shutdown, Sweden has a lower COVID-19 infection rate than UK, Italy and Spain. ![\\"true\\"](\\" half-true/6479cbc723379f0ee49c269b0b9790b7.jpg.\\") ![\\"half- true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") * Corrections and Updates * Public Health * Coronavirus * Franklin Graham ![\\"In](\\" In this Wednesday, April 8, 2020 file photo people chat and drink outside a bar in Stockholm, Sweden. Sweden is pursuing relatively liberal policies to fight the coronavirus pandemic, even though there has been a sharp spike in deaths. (AP) ![\\"Tom](\\" By Tom Kertscher April 24, 2020 # Fact-checking Sweden’s COVID-19 infection rate without shutdown #### If Your Time is short * Graham, who wants to see America reopen quickly, claims the COVID-19 infection rate in Sweden, which has no forced shutdown, is lower than in Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. * Sweden’s known infection rate is lower. But the epidemiologist credited with developing Sweden’s COVID-19 strategy said infection rate is not a reliable indicator of how a country is doing. See the sources for this fact-check While cheering President Donald Trump’s ideas for \"opening up America\" amid COVID-19, the Rev. Franklin Graham suggested on Facebook that Trump’s \"enemies and the liberal media\" want a prolonged national shutdown in order to prevent Trump from being re-elected. The Christian minister and son of Billy Graham, the late evangelist, also made a claim about Sweden and its contrarian approach to combating the coronavirus. \"I read yesterday that Sweden had not shut down, but their people were following social distancing and other protocols with the government stressing personal responsibility, and their infection rate still remains lower than the UK’s, Italy’s and Spain’s,\" Graham wrote in an April 17 post on Facebook. The post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Facebook.) After PolitiFact published a rating on this statement April 24, Graham edited his original Facebook post to remove reference to the infection rate. Data support Graham’s claim about infection rates. But the epidemiologist credited with developing Sweden’s COVID-19 strategy said infection rate is not a reliable indicator of how a country is doing. Sweden goes voluntary, not mandatory Sweden has a population of 10 million people, nearly nine out of 10 of whom live in urban areas; about 20% of residents were born abroad. In contrast to most of the United States, Sweden has imposed no lockdown and no quarantines, although groups of larger than 50 people are banned. With elementary schools, bars, restaurants and businesses still open, though with social distancing and other safety measures encouraged, what’s happening in Sweden seems like something closer to life as most Americans remember it. The idea in Sweden is to essentially pursue herd immunity — let the virus spread as slowly as possible while sheltering the elderly and the vulnerable until much of the population becomes naturally immune or a vaccine becomes available. The infection rates We didn’t get replies when we asked for information from two North Carolina- based organizations led by Graham, the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association and the international relief organization Samaritan\'s Purse. We found infection-rate figures from Our World in Data. That research organization is funded by philanthropists Bill and Melinda Gates and is led by Max Roser, who is director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Global Development at the University of Oxford. Here are the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 1 million people as of April 17, the day of Graham’s post: Spain: 3,910.1 Italy: 2,794.18 United States: 2,028.17 United Kingdom: 1,518.62 Sweden: 1,241.67 So, Sweden’s known rate of infections is lower than the other countries Graham mentioned (and lower than the U.S. rate, as well). #### Featured Fact-check ![](\\" ![](\\" Jeffrey Barke stated on August 23, 2024 in an Instagram post Food and Drug Administration approval for updated COVID-19 vaccines requires a public health emergency declaration. ![\\"true\\"](\\" false/33efdb6633e5e2fdc2d4e2f63383a1e0.jpg.\\") ![\\"false\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") By Jeff Cercone • August 27, 2024 We’ll note that Our World in Data figures for April 17 show that the death rate — the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases — in Sweden was slightly higher than Spain’s, though lower than the other countries Graham cites. United Kingdom: 13.32% Italy: 13.12% Sweden: 10.63% Spain: 10.46% United States: 4.96% Sweden’s death rate was much higher, however, than the three countries that border it: Denmark: 4.67%; Finland: 2.23%; Norway: 2%. Use caution on infection rates Experts urge caution on reading too much into the infection-rate figures that Graham alludes to. Testing has been focused on health care workers and people whose cases who are serious enough to end up in the hospital, so we don’t know the number of people infected who suffer mild or no symptoms, wrote Paul Franks, a genetic epidemiology professor at Lund University in Sweden and an adjunct professor at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. \"The existing data suggest that the infection rates are probably much higher in Stockholm than in London and a little higher across Sweden than across the UK,\" he told PolitiFact. Indeed, Anders Tegnell, the epidemiologist who is credited with developing Sweden’s COVID-19 strategy, says infection rate is not a good measure of how a country is doing. \"The recorded infection rate depends hugely on the number of tests performed and what indications for testing that are used,\" Tegnell, the director of the Swedish Public Health Agency, told PolitiFact. \"In other words, an unreliable measure.\" Asked if Sweden’s strategy has been effective, Tegnell told us: \"Partly, to the extent that the health system managed the challenge and that there are always free beds. Not so well in protecting the elderly.\" A surge in Sweden As we were preparing this fact-check, there were reports that confirmed infections in Sweden were rising sharply. For example, according to The Guardian, Sweden reported 812 new confirmed cases of coronavirus on April 24, the highest number of new cases in the country yet reported. At the same time, if Swedish studies are accurate, infections and deaths in Stockholm, where more than half of the country’s COVID-19 deaths have occurred, should \"drop substantially in the coming weeks,\" Franks wrote on April 23. Our ruling Urging that the reopening of the United States not be delayed, Graham said the COVID-19 infection rate in Sweden, which has no forced lockdown, is lower than in Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Infection rates are lower, but that’s not necessarily a telling metric. Experts, including the epidemiologist credited with devising Sweden’s no- lockdown strategy, said there are other reasons, including a lack of testing, not to read too much into infection rates as a measure of how well a country is responding to the virus. Sweden’s death rates, for example, are higher than some of its peers. For a statement that is partially accurate but leaves out important information, our rating is Half True. **UPDATE, April 27, 2020** : This story has been updated to reflect that Graham edited his original April 17 Facebook post to remove reference to Sweden\'s COVID-19 infection rate following the April 24 publication of this fact-check. #### Read About Our Process The Principles of the Truth-O-Meter ### Our Sources Facebook, Franklin Graham post, April 17, 2020 Wall Street Journal, \"Inside Sweden’s Radically Different Approach to the Coronavirus,\" March 30, 2020 Our World in Data, \"Total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people,\" April 17, 2020 Our World in Data, \"Case fatality rate of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,\" April 17, 2020 Email, Dr. Wilbur Chen, infectious disease physician-scientist at the University of Maryland, April 24, 2020 The Daily Signal, \"In Sweden, There’s No COVID-19 Lockdown. Here Are 4 Things to Know,\" April 14, 2020 The Guardian, \"Sweden reports its highest number of new cases yet,\" April 24, 2020 ABC News, \"What life is really like in Sweden amid the coronavirus pandemic: Reporter\'s notebook,\" April 22, 2020 The Hill, \"Sweden could reach \'herd immunity\' in weeks, top doctor says,\" April 22, 2020 Project Syndicate, \"The Grim Truth About the ‘Swedish Model,’\" April 17, 2020 Email, Kaiser Family Foundation senior vice president and director of global health & HIV policy Jennifer Kates, April 17, 2020 The Conversation, \"Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so,\" April 23, 2020 Business Insider, \"Today\'s country-by-country coronavirus stats: The US and UK are stuck on a plateau and it looks like bad times ahead for Canada and Sweden,\" April 24, 2020 Nature, \"‘Closing borders is ridiculous’: the epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy,\" April 21, 2020 Email, epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, director of the Swedish Public Health Agency, April 24, 2020 Email, Paul Franks, a genetic epidemiology professor at Lund University in Sweden and an adjunct professor at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health, April 24, 2020 ## Browse the Truth-O-Meter ### More by Tom Kertscher slide 4 to 6 of 15 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on July 19, 2023 in an Instagram post: A wind turbine must “spin continually for over four years just to replace the energy it took to manufacture it.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • July 28, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" TikTok posts stated on July 15, 2023 in un video en TikTok: \"Biden elimina ‘tráfico sexual de menores’ como una de las prioridades del Departamento de Justicia de su gobierno”. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Maria Briceño • July 25, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on July 17, 2023 in an Instagram post: \"Florida to ban mRNA vaccines as credible evidence of biological weapons.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • July 18, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on August 26, 2023 in a Facebook post: Video suggests Canada wildfires were deliberately set to advance “smart cities” push. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 30, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on August 26, 2023 in a video: Women vaccinated against COVID-19 face \"unknown side effects that could perpetually go down through the lineage\" to their children. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 29, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on August 25, 2023 in a Facebook post: As of Aug. 25, \"Luis Rubiales has resigned as the president of the Spanish Football Federation.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 29, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on August 24, 2023 in an Instagram post: The World Health Organization said there is \"a possible causal relationship\" between COVID-19 vaccines and multiple sclerosis. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 28, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on August 9, 2023 in a Facebook post: Video shows military planes over Nashville \"dispersing materials into the atmosphere\" for geoengineering. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 23, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on August 20, 2023 in a Facebook post: “Official statement — Putin assassinated in the Kremlin!” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Tom Kertscher • August 22, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on August 8, 2023 in a Facebook post: \"The federal government has just declared a major food shortage emergency\" in six states. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 16, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Steve Kirsch stated on August 8, 2023 in a blog post: COVID-19 vaccines have killed 676,000 Americans. ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Tom Kertscher • August 14, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on August 6, 2023 in a viral image: California passed a law “reducing penalties for oral, anal sex with willing children.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 9, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" TikTok posts stated on June 22, 2023 in a post: A new law allows people to permanently erase unpaid debt older than two years from their credit records. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 1, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on July 28, 2023 in a video: “Skin cancer is a relatively new phenomenon in the last 60 years or so.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 1, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on July 26, 2023 in a Facebook post: Says Bill Gates said, “We’re taking things that are genetically modified organisms, and we’re injecting them into little kids’ arms” in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • July 31, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on July 19, 2023 in an Instagram post: A wind turbine must “spin continually for over four years just to replace the energy it took to manufacture it.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • July 28, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" TikTok posts stated on July 15, 2023 in un video en TikTok: \"Biden elimina ‘tráfico sexual de menores’ como una de las prioridades del Departamento de Justicia de su gobierno”. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Maria Briceño • July 25, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on July 17, 2023 in an Instagram post: \"Florida to ban mRNA vaccines as credible evidence of biological weapons.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • July 18, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on August 26, 2023 in a Facebook post: Video suggests Canada wildfires were deliberately set to advance “smart cities” push. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 30, 2023 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on August 26, 2023 in a video: Women vaccinated against COVID-19 face \"unknown side effects that could perpetually go down through the lineage\" to their children. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 29, 2023 ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on August 25, 2023 in a Facebook post: As of Aug. 25, \"Luis Rubiales has resigned as the president of the Spanish Football Federation.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Tom Kertscher • August 29, 2023 ### Fact-checking Sweden’s COVID-19 infection rate without shutdown * ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on September 12, 2024 in a rally in Charlotte, N.C.: Former President Donald Trump “started out with $400 million on a silver platter and then filed for bankruptcy six times.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" X posts stated on September 15, 2024 in posts: Ryan Routh\'s Instagram bio says he is a \"proud LGBTQ+ member\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Grace Abels • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 17, 2024 in a Facebook post: “Chiefs\' Coach Andy Reid criticizes Taylor Swift: ‘You’re not a good role model.’” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Ciara O\'Rourke • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" JD Vance stated on September 15, 2024 in a \"Meet the Press\" interview: Former President Donald Trump could have destroyed the Affordable Care Act, but “he chose to build upon (it).\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Julie Appleby • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Jon Tester stated on September 6, 2024 in a Facebook ad: “Tim Sheehy told us his health care plan: ‘We need to return health care to pure privatization.’ That would eliminate Medicare.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 13, 2024 in a Facebook post: Says Colin Kaepernick said he “will go to Russia if not properly respected in the United States.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Ciara O\'Rourke • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Viral image stated on September 17, 2024 in a Threads post: Image shows “P Diddy with Kamala Harris.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Ciara O\'Rourke • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Wisco Project stated on September 16, 2024 in Social media ads: “If you make less than $100,000, Trump is about to raise your taxes. Currently, you’re taxed at 10% and then 12%. He would raise that to a flat rate of 15%.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Madeline Heim • September 20, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 13, 2024 in a post: Vice President Kamala Harris’ college professors disparaged her as their “worst student.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 17, 2024 in a post: Photo shows Kamala Harris posing beside Sean “Diddy” Combs. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Sara Swann • September 19, 2024 Load more ### Support independent fact-checking. Become a member! In a world of wild talk and fake news, help us stand up for the facts. Sign me up #### Offices District of Columbia 1800 I Street NW Washington, DC 20006 Florida 801 3rd St. S St. Petersburg, FL 33701 727-821-9494 #### People * Joe Biden * Kamala Harris * Donald Trump * Mitch McConnell * Hakeem Jeffries * Ron DeSantis #### State Editions * California * Florida * Iowa * Michigan * New Hampshire * New York * North Carolina * Pennsylvania * Texas * West Virginia * Wisconsin #### About Us * Our Process * Our Staff * En Español * Who pays for PolitiFact? * Advertise with Us * Corrections and Updates * Newsletters #### RSS Feeds * Recent Articles and Fact-checks * Recent Fact-checks Suggest a Fact-check #### Follow us The Facts Newsletter Sign up Terms & Conditions Privacy Policy Copyright ©All Rights Reserved Poynter Institute 2020, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization ![\\"\\"](\\" ✕ * * *
Even with no shutdown Sweden has a lower COVID19 infection rate than UK Italy and Spain