The Poynter Institute Menu Donate State Editions * California * Florida * Iowa * Michigan * New Hampshire * New York * North Carolina * Pennsylvania * Texas * West Virginia * Wisconsin Issues * All Issues * Online hoaxes * Coronavirus * Health Care * Immigration * Extremism * Taxes * Marijuana * Environment * Crime * Guns * Foreign Policy * LGBTQ+ People * Joe Biden * Kamala Harris * Donald Trump * Mitch McConnell * Hakeem Jeffries * Ron DeSantis Media * PunditFact * Tucker Carlson * Sean Hannity * Rachel Maddow * Bloggers * PolitiFact Videos Campaigns * 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter * True * Mostly True * Half True * Mostly False * False * Pants on Fire Promises * Biden Promise Tracker * Trump-O-Meter * Obameter * Latest Promises About Us * Our Process * Our Staff * En Español * Who pays for PolitiFact? * Advertise with Us * Suggest a Fact-check * Corrections and Updates * Newsletters Donate #### Follow us The Facts Newsletter Sign up English Español ### Get PolitiFact in your inbox. * Weekly Email Newsletter * Daily Email Newsletter Your Email Address Sign Up ![](\\" ![](\\" Morten Jerven stated on June 29, 2016 in an article: For 21 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, \"we simply do not have data to say anything about trends in poverty.\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" mostly-true/4ac7c61540eff5211f6a04d98a6bc93a.jpg.\\") ![\\"mostly- true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") * Global News Service * Economy * Foreign Policy * Morten Jerven ![\\"A](\\" A health care workers interviews residents in Billibo, Liberia, a country that lacks key data on poverty. (Direct Relif, via Flickr Creative Commons) ![\\"Jon](\\" By Jon Greenberg July 7, 2016 # Tracking global poverty: Do we have the real numbers? The success story of aid groups in developing countries often includes a line about lifting people out of poverty. But what if the data behind such claims was suspect? That’s the contention of economist Morten Jerven at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. Jerven, a noted skeptic of African development statistics, says it’s a case of the \"PR department getting ahead of the knowledge department.\" For 21 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, \"we simply do not have data to say anything about trends in poverty,\" Jerven wrote recently. As fact-checkers, we at PolitiFact can be asked to rely on the data Jerven is calling into question. So we decided to put his claim to the test. It takes two data points to tango Jerven based his claim on a simple law about measuring things: If you want to spot a trend, you need to have a starting point and an end point. Importantly, you need to measure the same thing at both times. To give a crude example, if one year you ask people how much they earn and 10 years later ask them how much their entire household makes, you can see how it would be difficult to make comparisons and draw conclusions. The World Bank identified problems with the data points for countries in Sub- Saharan Africa. \"By 2012, only 27 of the region’s 48 countries had conducted at least two comparable surveys since 1990 to track poverty,\" a 2016 report said. Do the math, and you get Jerven’s 21 countries without a starting and an end point on poverty. Andrew Dabalen, lead economist in the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice, doesn’t quibble with Jerven’s statement, at least not too much. He and his colleagues vet the data that comes out of Africa. In some countries, such as Liberia and Sudan, there’s just one survey. Somalia has none. Kenya has four, but each was too different from the others to make any firm conclusions. Where do surveys run into issues? They might not match because they drew from different areas -- say a national sample versus urban residents. Some had people fill out daily diaries, while others asked people after the fact to remember what they bought or produced for themselves. Simply taking a survey at different times of the year, harvest versus planting season, could radically change the results. \"Based on the review using these criteria, we find that indeed 21 countries did not have at least two comparable surveys to say something about trends,\" Dabalen told us. Keeping things consistent is not a trivial issue, or a new one. In the mid 1990s, India shifted from asking people what they consumed in the past month to what they consumed in variety of time periods -- from as short as one week to as long as a year. Virtually overnight, the official number of people in poverty fell by about 200 million, a result that many analysts challenged. Even in the United States, scientists often fret anytime the U.S. Census Bureau debates or discusses changing the questions it asks, for fear that it will jeopardize useful data. Filling in the gaps #### Featured Fact-check ![](\\" ![](\\" Americans for Prosperity Action stated on September 4, 2024 in a Meta ad The Inflation Reduction Act, which Rep. Elissa Slotkin supported, “drove inflation higher.” ![\\"true\\"](\\" false/33efdb6633e5e2fdc2d4e2f63383a1e0.jpg.\\") ![\\"false\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") By Caleb McCullough • September 26, 2024 Confronted with missing data, Dabalen and his colleagues have a few workarounds that can help in some places. Numbers for an entire nation’s economy, its gross domestic product, are generally available. Dabalen said you can use GDP trends to estimate household consumption, and from that, derive a poverty level. \"Such a method has its issues, but it is used widely and under certain assumptions, it predicts reasonably well,\" Dabalen said. But it’s not perfect. Branko Milanovic, senior scholar and specialist in global inequality at the CUNY Graduate Center, said the most you can learn from GDP is how things changed on average. If most of the economic growth flowed to the wealthy, the poor might gain little. (The income gains of the top 1 percent to 5 percent in the United States in recent years is a good example.) \"A change in the mean does not tell us anything about the change in the distribution,\" Milanovic said. Dabalen told us about other techniques that derive missing numbers from a range of surveys that can tie economic well-being to other measures such as spending on food, housing conditions or education levels. On a large scale, looking at an entire region, this statistical alchemy can at least show the direction of change. This World Bank chart tracks results for 48 Sub-Saharan nations. The blue line is based only on countries with solid, comparable data. The other lines rely on something less than that. ![](\\" oRaiGreC3RZmrP6YKx9_1pfIPPTPaajgowg66OAiXssx0qjgdojZDmRgwRQnMk2oUewjpGidLndfsJtzpk- OMaskh4alAYHDsY8LKN2UUDtoyfQkKGiiVmM7ulm6\\"/) So policy makers can have a sense of the trends in poverty, even if they can’t say for sure what the poverty level is. But again, that’s from a regional vantage point. For any single country with very limited data, these techniques get dicey. According to the World Bank, the use of alternative surveys to fill in missing information sometimes showed poverty going down, when based on more reliable numbers, it was actually going up. Steps are under way to deal with the larger data problem, but a lot of work remains. Oddly, the lack of hard data doesn’t necessarily mean that poverty is worse than we think. Dabalen and his colleagues wrote that a number of crosschecks of all the information \"support the notion that poverty reduction may have been larger than assumed.\" Our ruling Jerven said that for 21 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, \"we simply do not have data to say anything about trends in poverty.\" His number comes directly from a careful vetting of poverty surveys by the World Bank. That analysis described in detail the holes in the information needed to track poverty. Jerven pushed his point a bit too far by saying that we can’t say anything about trends. Alternative methods give a reasonably reliable picture of overall trends, even if they can’t tell policy makers what the actual poverty rate might be. But at the end of the day, the consensus among the experts we reached is that the gap Jerven talked about is real and rather than use workaround techniques, everyone would prefer solid data. We rate this claim Mostly True. #### Read About Our Process The Principles of the Truth-O-Meter ### Our Sources Morten Jerven, Development by the numbers, 2016 World Bank, Data Deprivation: Another Deprivation to End, April 2015 World Bank, Poverty in a rising Africa, 2016 World Bank, A measured approach to ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity, 2015 Bill Gates, If We Can Get the Numbers Right, We Can Help More People, May 2, 2013 World Bank, Data and dogma: The great Indian poverty debate, 2005 Email interview, Andrew Dabalen, lead economist in the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice, June 29, 2016 Email interview, Branko Milanovic, senior scholar, CUNY Graduate Center, June 30, 2016 Email interview, Morten Jerven, associate professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, June 29, 2016 Photo: Billibo, Liberia, Direct Relief, Creative Commons License ## Browse the Truth-O-Meter ### More by Jon Greenberg ![](\\" ![](\\" Tucker Carlson stated on November 8, 2022 in election night coverage on Fox News: “Electronic voting machines didn\'t allow people to vote” in Maricopa County, Arizona. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • November 9, 2022 ![](\\" black/4590875651af69b2c789ceab409664dd.jpg\\") ![](\\" black/72988380e8c8bd188dc360d11552e4a0.jpg\\") X posts stated on November 8, 2022 in a tweet: “There is no chain of custody” for ballots placed in Box No. 3 at Maricopa, Arizona, polling sites. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • November 8, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Ryan stated on November 1, 2022 in a town hall event: “J.D. Vance said nothing about” the attack on Paul Pelosi. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • November 3, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Mark Kelly stated on October 26, 2022 in a newspaper interview: Blake Masters “wants to privatize” Social Security. ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Jon Greenberg • October 28, 2022 ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/322c808c00e73c217d17772ddd5a0eb5.jpg\\") ![](\\" Instagram_logo_2016.svg/8b142c91ebe468a84a192e6df2b7b994.jpg\\") Instagram posts stated on October 25, 2022 in an Instagram post: The documentary “2,000 Mules proves” Democrats “cheated on the 2020 elections.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • October 28, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Blake Masters stated on October 15, 2022 in a tweet: Immigrants illegally in the country are treated “better than military veterans.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • October 21, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Katie Hobbs stated on October 9, 2022 in an interview on CBS News\' Face the Nation: Kari Lake has “gone on the record saying she supports Arizona\'s complete abortion ban. She\'s called it a great law.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Jon Greenberg • October 12, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kari Lake stated on October 9, 2022 in an interview on CBS News\' Face the Nation: “Katie Hobbs voted for allowing a baby who survives an abortion — that the hospital would refuse medical care and allow the baby to die on a cold metal tray.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Jon Greenberg • October 12, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Ryan stated on September 27, 2022 in a campaign ad: “I voted with Trump on trade.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Jon Greenberg • October 4, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Mark Finchem stated on September 22, 2022 in a Secretary of State debate: Ballot harvesting “altered the outcome” of a city council election in Yuma County, Arizona. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • September 23, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Saving Arizona PAC stated on September 8, 2022 in a campaign ad: “Mark Kelly voted against the Keystone pipeline, which caused higher gas prices.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Jon Greenberg • September 16, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Elizabeth Warren stated on August 28, 2022 in an interview on CNN: \"40% of the folks who have student loans do not have a college diploma, four- year diploma. These are people who are truck drivers and who are nail technicians and nurses’ aides.” ![\\"true\\"](\\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • September 13, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Hillary Clinton stated on September 6, 2022 in a tweet.: “I had zero emails that were classified.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Jon Greenberg • September 13, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Scott stated on August 10, 2022 in an interview on Fox News: “The Congressional Budget Office says 90% of the revenue generated from the new IRS agents will come from people making less than $200,000 … and the revenue generated will be $300-plus billion.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jon Greenberg • August 17, 2022 ![](\\" ![](\\" Bob Good stated on August 10, 2022 in a tweet.: “Democrats are voting to add an army of 87,000 IRS agents who will target middle class taxpayers and conduct at least 1 million more audits each year. ” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Warren Fiske • August 17, 2022 ### Tracking global poverty: Do we have the real numbers? * ![](\\" ![](\\" House Majority PAC stated on September 9, 2024 in a television ad: Laurie Buckhout is “trying to get to Congress to pass a national abortion ban, allowing politicians to ban abortions with no exceptions and prosecute women if they get an abortion, treating women right here like criminals.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Paul Specht • October 1, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump Jr. stated on September 9, 2024 in a post: “Less than three months ago, Kamala Harris and her administration blocked 300,000 unvetted Haitian migrants from being deported out of our country.\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" X posts stated on September 30, 2024 in an X post: Photo shows President Joe Biden lounging on the beach \"while towns all over America were being wiped out” by Hurricane Helene. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Samantha Putterman • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Social Media stated on September 30, 2024 in in social media posts: “Biden Announces: ‘2.4 billion more to Ukraine’ but ‘no more aid for Hurricane Helene.’” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jeff Cercone • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 24, 2024 in a post: “Olympic boxer Imane Khelif fails gender test, stripped of all titles, lifetime ban and $25 million prize money revoked!” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Grace Abels • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 30, 2024 in a press conference in Georgia: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp was calling President Joe Biden after Hurricane Helene but \"hasn\'t been able to get him.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Caleb McCullough • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Viral image stated on September 29, 2024 in an Instagram post: “Video shows Kamala (Harris) responding to someone talking through her earrings that she allegedly wore during the Trump vs. Harris debate.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Ciara O\'Rourke • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Elissa Slotkin stated on September 30, 2024 in a Meta ad: U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers “believes he should make that decision” about whether to end pregnancies. ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Caleb McCullough • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Sheehy stated on September 27, 2024 in an ad: U.S. Sen. Jon Tester “voted to give taxpayer-funded health care to illegal immigrants.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • September 30, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 26, 2024 in an Instagram post: “Kamala involved in P-Diddy’s rapes and assaults.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Sofia Ahmed • September 30, 2024 Load more ### Support independent fact-checking. Become a member! In a world of wild talk and fake news, help us stand up for the facts. Sign me up #### Offices District of Columbia 1800 I Street NW Washington, DC 20006 Florida 801 3rd St. S St. Petersburg, FL 33701 727-821-9494 #### People * Joe Biden * Kamala Harris * Donald Trump * Mitch McConnell * Hakeem Jeffries * Ron DeSantis #### State Editions * California * Florida * Iowa * Michigan * New Hampshire * New York * North Carolina * Pennsylvania * Texas * West Virginia * Wisconsin #### About Us * Our Process * Our Staff * En Español * Who pays for PolitiFact? * Advertise with Us * Corrections and Updates * Newsletters #### RSS Feeds * Recent Articles and Fact-checks * Recent Fact-checks Suggest a Fact-check #### Follow us The Facts Newsletter Sign up Terms & Conditions Privacy Policy Copyright ©All Rights Reserved Poynter Institute 2020, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization ![\\"\\"](\\" * * * ✕
For 21 countries in SubSaharan Africa we simply do not have data to say anything about trends in poverty