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(AP) ![\\"Louis](\\" By Louis Jacobson February 6, 2020 # No, the economy didn\'t suddenly get strong under Donald Trump #### If Your Time is short • Across a broad range of economic metrics, economic performance under Trump continued gains made during the final years under Obama. Charts below show the trendlines. • Many factors beyond a president’s control also shape the health of the economy. See the sources for this fact-check One of the biggest themes of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address — and one of the biggest themes of his reelection campaign — is that he inherited a weak economy from President Barack Obama and turned it into a strong economy by implementing his own policies. \"The years of economic decay are over,\" he told the joint session of Congress on Feb. 4, 2020. \"The days of our country being used, taken advantage of, and even scorned by other nations are long behind us. Gone, too, are the broken promises, jobless recoveries, tired platitudes and constant excuses for the depletion of American wealth, power and prestige.\" Trump added, \"If we hadn’t reversed the failed economic policies of the previous administration, the world would not now be witnessing this great economic success.\" When we reached out to the Trump campaign, they offered several statistics showing Trump has notched greater gains than Obama did, such as manufacturing job creation, the unemployment rate, and economic growth. We found those statistics, and other specific facts Trump cited during the State of the Union, were accurate, or largely so. However, unlike Obama, who inherited the Great Recession, Trump inherited an economy that was already getting back on its feet. Overall, we found a continuation of the favorable trend lines Trump inherited from Obama. We looked at 15 common economic statistics, from unemployment rates to growth in gross domestic product to poverty, foreclosures, and bank failures. They cover the period of the Great Recession until today. Where possible, we’ve highlighted periods under a Republican president in red and periods under a Democratic president in blue. The bottom line: For virtually each of these measurements, we found that the trend lines continued almost seamlessly from the second half of Obama’s presidency into the first three years of Trump’s tenure. Trump’s claim that he turned around a failing economy is wrong. \"I do not think economic gains have been any faster or better under Trump than gains we would have forecast based on the steady improvements we saw in the economy and job market in President Obama’s second term,\" said Gary Burtless, an economist with the Brookings Institution. Also, no president has total control over the factors affecting the economy. Broader trends beyond their powers — from international economic conditions to technological changes — shape the course of the economy as well. \"All our decisions together produce the economy,\" said Aaron Sojourner, a University of Minnesota economist. \"It doesn\'t change when the resident of the White House does.\" Employment statistics For unemployment rates and for median weeks of unemployment, the declines under Obama were at least as fast — if not faster — than they have been under Trump. That holds for several of the racial and ethnic groups Trump often cites in speeches, as well as for women. ![](\\" gWMBWitqkJqT6JgIo9gwS4OFdJV8ZV-42H5IvOpN8MjB5-SMEclEIvkOMsbpQMTsNxyxiDAlZNQ-t6qXcUmKpRFFmTqeB0DuT\\"/) Meanwhile, since the recovery gained speed, the pattern of monthly job gains has been quite similar under both Obama and Trump. That’s also broadly true for manufacturing job gains, a metric that Trump has been especially focused on. The percentage of Americans either working or looking for work took longer to recover than other statistics, and it still hasn’t returned to pre-recession levels. This statistic did fall for most of Obama’s tenure, but it started to rise in his final year and has continued to rise under Trump. #### Featured Fact-check ![](\\" ![](\\" JD Vance stated on August 25, 2024 in an interview on NBC\'s \"Meet the Press\" “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you\'re ultimately much better off.” ![\\"true\\"](\\" false/33efdb6633e5e2fdc2d4e2f63383a1e0.jpg.\\") ![\\"false\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 29, 2024 ![](\\" Wages Inflation-adjusted wages fell for much of Obama’s first term, but they began rising again during his second term. Their path under Trump has been along much the same trajectory. ![](\\" Gross domestic product As a candidate, Trump promised 4% economic growth. But he’s never hit that mark in any quarter (Obama did so in four quarters) and he has hit 3% in four quarters, the same number that Obama did during an equivalent period, his final three years in office. Poverty and food stamps The poverty rate and food stamp use has declined under Trump. Those declines began during Obama’s final years in office. ![](\\" ![](\\" Credit and banking The big declines in foreclosures, bankruptcies and bank failures occurred under Obama, with marginal advances under Trump. ![](\\" GUJhinDzDrIkDcUvLa6tylCberF2a4l2zgUMlmUEEBdB8RIb7HGlSEB51sY4Ux1XszRe29PJa4BFzuMbNGor-9teZrjd6Na5XatB89ZXnKadBdGJCFkqnSz98c9FZJ\\"/) ![](\\" ![](\\" wwQjJiaIjAvPe\\"/) The stock market Trump often touts how the stock market has risen on his watch, and it has, to record levels. But a look at the Standard & Poor’s 500, a broad measure of stock market value, shows that the markets have risen at roughly the same rate under both presidents. ![](\\" Consumer confidence Trump may have his strongest argument on the most intangible of these statistics: consumer confidence. Regular measurements by Gallup and the University of Michigan show a \"breakpoint right after the election\" in Trump’s favor, said Jed Kolko, the chief economist for Indeed.com. In Gallup’s measure, for instance, the statistic broke into positive territory with Trump’s election and has stayed there, after being in negative territory for virtually all of Obama’s tenure. \"Multiple economic confidence measures took an immediate and sustained jump after the election, even though it\'s hard to find similar shifts among the key measures of actual economic performance,\" Kolko said. But another widely tracked statistic, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, shows a continuing rise during Obama’s full tenure that presaged the later heights Trump reached. Our ruling Trump said that \"years of economic decay are over\" because he \"reversed the failed economic policies of the previous administration.\" The notion that the economy turned on a dime from bad to good under Trump is not supported by the facts. The performance under Trump has generally continued the pace of improvements that began during the final few years of Obama’s presidency. We rate the statement False. #### Read About Our Process The Principles of the Truth-O-Meter ### Our Sources Donald Trump, State of the Union address transcript, Feb. 4, 2020 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, data on monthly change in employment, manufacturing employment, civilian labor force participation, median weeks of unemployment, wages, unemployment by racial and ethnic group, and women’s unemployment, accessed Feb. 5, 2020 Bureau of Economic Analysis, interactive data source, accessed Feb. 5, 2020 U.S. Department of Agriculture, food stamp statistics, accessed Feb. 5, 2020 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., \"Bank Failures in Brief – Summary 2001 through 2019,\" accessed Feb. 5, 2020 American Bankruptcy Institute, bankruptcy statistics, accessed Feb. 5, 2020 Yahoo! Finance, historical S&P data, accessed Feb. 5, 2020 ATTOM Data Solutions, foreclosure data, accessed Feb. 5, 2020 Gallup, \"Economic Confidence Drops to Lowest Level Since Shutdown,\" Sept. 20, 2019 New York Times, \"Confidence in the Economy Has Faded. Will It Rebound?\" Feb. 13, 2019 Email interview with Gary Burtless, economist with the Brookings Institution, Feb. 5, 2020 Email interview with Jed Kolko, chief economist for Indeed.com, Feb. 5, 2020 Email interview with Aaron Sojourner, economist with the University of Minnesota, Feb. 5, 2020 ## Browse the Truth-O-Meter ### More by Louis Jacobson ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 30, 2024 in an event in Atlanta: \"Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security.\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Pete Buttigieg stated on July 28, 2024 in an interview on Fox News Sunday: “Even before the pandemic, America went into a manufacturing recession.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 18, 2024 in a speech in North Carolina: “Today, America has record energy production and we are energy independent.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 26, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Jon Tester stated on September 8, 2024 in a Facebook ad: Tim Sheehy “would let politicians like him ban abortion, with no exceptions for rape or to save a woman’s life, and criminalize women.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 12, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 7, 2024 in a rally in Mosinee, Wis.: Vice President Kamala Harris “cast the tiebreaking votes that caused the worst inflation in American history, costing a typical American family $28,000.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 8, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in su discurso de aceptación en la Convención Nacional Demócrata: El expresidente Donald Trump “tiene la intención de promulgar lo que, en efecto, es un impuesto nacional sobre las ventas…que elevaría los precios para las familias de clase media a casi $4,000 al año”. ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Marta Campabadal Graus • September 5, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 23, 2024 in a campaign event in Glendale, Ariz.: “There’s been a 43% increase in violent crimes since I left office.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 4, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention: Former President Donald Trump \"intends to enact what, in effect, is a national sales tax ... that would raise prices on middle-class families by almost $4,000 a year.\" ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 30, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" JD Vance stated on August 25, 2024 in an interview on NBC\'s \"Meet the Press\": “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you\'re ultimately much better off.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • August 29, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 21, 2024 in a Truth Social post: “The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 23, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 8, 2024 in a press conference: Says his Jan. 6, 2021, speech on the White House Ellipse drew the “same number of people,” as the 1963 March on Washington where Martin Luther King Jr. gave his “I Have a Dream” speech. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • August 9, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on August 6, 2024 in un mitin de campaña en Filadelfia: \"El crimen violento aumentó bajo Donald Trump\". ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 9, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on August 6, 2024 in a rally in Philadelphia: “Violent crime was up under Donald Trump.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 7, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 30, 2024 in a rally in Atlanta: Donald Trump “intends to cut” Medicare. ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 7, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Joe Biden stated on August 2, 2024 in a written statement: \"Since Vice President Harris and I took office … incomes have risen faster than prices.\" ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 6, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 30, 2024 in an event in Atlanta: \"Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security.\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Pete Buttigieg stated on July 28, 2024 in an interview on Fox News Sunday: “Even before the pandemic, America went into a manufacturing recession.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 18, 2024 in a speech in North Carolina: “Today, America has record energy production and we are energy independent.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 26, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Jon Tester stated on September 8, 2024 in a Facebook ad: Tim Sheehy “would let politicians like him ban abortion, with no exceptions for rape or to save a woman’s life, and criminalize women.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 12, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 7, 2024 in a rally in Mosinee, Wis.: Vice President Kamala Harris “cast the tiebreaking votes that caused the worst inflation in American history, costing a typical American family $28,000.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 8, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in su discurso de aceptación en la Convención Nacional Demócrata: El expresidente Donald Trump “tiene la intención de promulgar lo que, en efecto, es un impuesto nacional sobre las ventas…que elevaría los precios para las familias de clase media a casi $4,000 al año”. ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Marta Campabadal Graus • September 5, 2024 ### No, the economy didn\'t suddenly get strong under Donald Trump * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 12, 2024 in an Instagram post: A video shows a body that Israel embedded with a bomb exploding during a Palestinian funeral procession. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Sofia Ahmed • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 11, 2024 in a post: “ESPN has fired Shannon Sharpe.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Gideon Hess • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 12, 2024 in an Instagram post: Former President Donald Trump admitted during the Sept. 10 presidential debate that he “blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Loreben Tuquero • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 10, 2024 in a Facebook post: Patron, Don Julio and Pink Whitney tequila recalled because they contained fecal matter. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jeff Cercone • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Elissa Slotkin stated on September 11, 2024 in a TV ad: Mike Rogers supported “laws that could eliminate IVF and birth control.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Caleb McCullough • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 11, 2024 in an Instagram post: \"Debate moderators made the false claim to Donald Trump that there is nowhere in the United States where abortion is legal up until birth.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jeff Cercone • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 12, 2024 in a Facebook post: ABC News fired presidential debate moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis. ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Sofia Ahmed • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Yes on 4 stated on September 10, 2024 in a TV ad: Florida’s six-week abortion law has “no real exceptions. Not for her health. Not even for rape.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Samantha Putterman • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 11, 2024 in una publicación en Facebook: Imagen muestra carnet del Partido Comunista de la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris. ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Maria Briceño • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Sam Brown stated on August 28, 2024 in a campaign appearance: Proposed Nevada constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights would put “essentially no limit on access to abortion.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Caleb McCullough • September 13, 2024 Load more ### Support independent fact-checking. Become a member! In a world of wild talk and fake news, help us stand up for the facts. 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Years of economic decay are over because Trump reversed the failed economic policies of the previous administration