![\\"logo\\"](\\"/img/logo-dpa-factchecking.svg\\"/) * WhatsApp service * About Us ![\\"IFCN](\\"/img/ifcn-certificate.png\\"/) ![\\"EFCSN](\\"/img/efcsn- certificate.png\\"/) ## Misleading interpretation # BKA crime statistics evaluated dubiously August 7, 2024, 11:23 a.m. (CEST), last update: August 7, 2024, 5:57 p.m. (CEST) Police data has to be used again and again as evidence of an allegedly high crime of certain nationalities. But often there are committed elementary statistical errors. There is a lot of talk about the crime rates of foreigners in Germany Half-truths and myths. In a post on platform X it works However, as if a user had reputable numbers from sources like that Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and the Federal Statistical Office for a diagram evaluated. It states that the suspect rate for Afghans is Gang rape is 70 times higher than the suspect rate Germans. African foreigners are 40 times more likely to arrive Involved in gang rape as Germans. The graphic shows: For every million inhabitants in Germany, 0.6 are German and 23 are African and 41 Afghans suspected of gang rape. But this one Evaluation is not serious. ## Evaluation No evidence of the above-mentioned suspect rates and no serious handling of them Statistics. There is no precise information about which year and which date the data comes from. In addition, the number of suspects would have within similar subgroups must be compared and not with the whole population of a nationality. ## Facts From the X user's graphic it appears that they are from multiple sources should eat: The user has taken from the police crime statistics (PKS). Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) the nationalities of suspects taken from those suspected of ambush rape by groups became. In addition, data from the Federal Statistical Office was used for foreign purposes Population used - apparently to determine how large the proportion of Afghans or people with citizenship of African countries population in Germany. Four points about this approach make it clear that it does not result in any Statistically reputable quota can be calculated as to how many suspects there are Gang rape per million members of a nationality Germany gives. There is no evidence that the values ​​given on the graphics apply. Information on the year and reference date of the data is missing Firstly, there is no information about which year the numbers used are from originate. Another X post from the same thread is about numbers from 2016 to 2017. But from which year and from which date exactly The information on the alleged suspect rates or the information comes from the proportion of foreigners in Germany's population? The year and the key date play an important role in the evaluation. The When asked by the German Press Agency (dpa), the BKA pointed out that the Graphic in the X article does not take into account that crimes are also committed by can be committed by persons who are not in the country on the cut-off date of the projection live in Germany and are therefore not part of the resident population. “Especially in Considering the period, there can be a large statistical difference determine whether, for example, the number of Afghan nationals as of January 1, 2016 or was viewed as of December 31, 2016. The source doesn't say that visible," said a BKA spokesman. Extrapolation of low numbers promotes distortion Secondly, the low number of cases is a pitfall: the BKA spokesman said dpa, “in order to make statements in comparison to the population, one must use the The time of the crime must be analyzed, otherwise the comparison is with the resident population statistically inaccurate, this inaccuracy increases with smaller numbers Suspects." Such low numbers are in the example from X post: In 2017, according to PKS, only nine Afghans were born Suspects of the crime “Rape in a raid (by groups)” identified 18 suspects of African nationality and 27 Germans (see Table 62). The extrapolation to “per 1 million inhabitants” is also distorting. Because like that Many Afghans or people from African countries don't even live there Germany. As of December 31, 2017, there were around 539,000 citizens living there African countries in Germany and almost 252,000 Afghans. The calculation is therefore dubious because it does not indicate whether the resident population was observed at the time of the crime. And she makes a dubious extrapolation, which artificially increases the proportion of the population and the number of suspects lets work. Evaluation neglects special characteristics of the groups Third, serious statistics would create similar comparison groups. The missing from the X post. The population groups of Germans, Afghans or Citizens of African countries who live in Germany differ but significant. In response to a dpa request, the BKA pointed out that in comparisons of Suspects of different nationalities or groups of origin Factors would have to be taken into account - such as the proportion of gender the respective group, their age structure or social classification. So There are proportionately more younger men among immigrants than in Germany Average. Younger men generally have a higher risk of crime than others population groups, regardless of their origin. According to the BKA, too Rape crimes in groups are more likely to be committed by male suspects committed under 40 years of age. “Therefore, only the appropriate ones should be here Subgroups must be compared for corresponding statements,” said a BKA representative. Speaker. Foreign suspects are more likely to be reported than Germans Fourthly, an evaluation of PKS data only leaves a limited scope anyway statement about actual crime. The PKS only records Information from the police about identified suspects. Whether a court this This does not mean that he or she was later actually convicted as a perpetrator to read. Although the graphic correctly mentions “suspects”, it does one post states that African foreigners are more frequent Involved in gang rape - the PKS only shows how often Suspects of certain nationalities were identified. It is misleading to interpret this as foreign crime To make a suspect: Because these are comparatively more common in the Crime statistics appear, among other things, because they are more likely to are displayed as Germans, for example, according to a study by the Zurich University of Applied Sciences Applied Sciences 2018 found out. The more foreign a suspect The more perpetrator acts, the higher the willingness to report. (As of: August 7, 2024) Note: The text has been updated without any changes to the content correct incorrect formatting. ## Links X article with graphic (archived) Diagram from X post (archived) Another X post with year information (archived) Table 62 of the PKS on crimes and nationalities of non-Germans Suspect (archived) Federal Statistical Office on the foreign population (archived) Federal Agency for Civic Education, among other things, about foreigners in the Crime statistics (archived) ZAHW study on, among other things, violence against refugees from January 2018 (archived) Federal Center for Civic Education on higher levels of crime among young men (archived) ### About dpa fact checks This fact check was carried out as part of the Facebook/Meta independent program Fact check created. Find detailed information about this program You here. Explanations from Facebook/Meta on how to deal with accounts that provide false information spread, can be found here. 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The suspect rate for Afghans measured in relation to their share of the population in Germany in gang rapes is 70 times higher than the suspect rate for Germans African foreigners are 40 times more likely to be involved in gang rape than Germans