Political Report Card Logo * What we do * Who we are * Newsletters * Book * Support us * fb * tw * ig Near Support us Menu backwards ## Salvini is wrong about the 100 quota and new jobs for young people by Editorial Staff | June 17, 2020 ![\\"Report card](\\"\\") Matteo Salvini The declaration «Quota 100 gave 300 thousand Italians the opportunity (...) to go to retirement at 62, 63, 64, and for as many young people to start working" (min. 27.05) Source: Radio Anch’io – Rai Radio 1 | June 17, 2020 facebook twitter whatsapp email ![\\"Handle\\"](\\"\\") Handle Brief verdict Pinocchio going The secretary of the League Matteo Salvini declared, guest of _Radio Me too_ on Rai Radio 1 on 17 June, which allowed 100 to reach 300 thousand Italians to retire early and to "just as many young people". start working. This is an incorrect statement. What is quota 100 We briefly remind you that the expression "quota 100" means the right to obtain an early pension upon reaching a certain age at least 62 years of age and with a minimum contribution period of 38 years. It was a promise explicitly contained in the Government Agreement signed by Lega and M5s in mid-2018, at the beginning of the first Conte government. Quota 100 is was introduced on an experimental basis from 2019 to 2021 with an expected cost for the State in the Budget Law for 2019 of 3.9 billion for 2019, 8.3 for 2020, 8.6 for 2021 and - if the measure is then confirmed - 8.1 billion for 2022, 7 for 2023 and 7 billion euros every year to starting from 2024. In reality, according to a report from the Parliamentary Office of budget (independent body that supervises public finances) of December 2019, the measure was less successful than expected and the costs of consequently they were reduced to 2.6 billion in 2019, 5.9 billion in 2020 and 7 billion in 2021. INPS data on beneficiaries of quota 100 The president of the INPS Pasquale Tridico, heard on 14 January by the Commission for control over the activity of bodies managing mandatory forms of social security and social assistance of the Chamber, had made it known that pensions «between those relating exclusively to the one hundred quota, the liquidated pensions are there were around 150,000" in 2019. For 2020 the most updated INPS data were given during another hearing of President Tridico on the 19th May, before the Senate Labor Committee. From the attached sheets at the hearing it emerged that the approximately 150 thousand "quota 100" pensions paid in 2019 related to almost 230 thousand applications (for a acceptance rate equal to approximately two thirds). In 2020, between January and May, they were Approximately another 43 thousand applications were submitted, with a progressive decrease each month on a monthly basis (from almost 14 thousand in January to just under five thousand in May). Applying the same acceptance rate as in 2019, we can hypothesize that approximately 30 thousand will be welcomed. Therefore, even adding to the approximately 150 thousand pensions amount to 100 paid in 2019, the approximately 30 thousand that we can hypothesize will be liquidated in 2020, we reach around 180 thousand in total. A fact far from the one quoted by Salvini of 300 thousand, which perhaps he still does reference to the estimates for 2019 on possible beneficiaries - of which we had written –, today surpassed by real data. Not all beneficiaries are workers Not all beneficiaries of "quota 100" are workers, who therefore by retiring they “free up” a job for a young person. This fact, which emerged already in the first months of 2019, was then confirmed by president of INPS, Pasquale Tridico, in an interview with Corriere della Evening of 10 November 2019. Tridico then said in this regard that «i 70 percent of pensioners who reach the 100 mark are people who they work." Therefore, based on the estimate of 180 thousand pensioners thanks to the quota 100 mentioned above, around 50 thousand would not in fact have left one free workplace. And the young people? The impact of quota 100 on new hires per time is unknown. Tridico, again in the hearing on January 15th, said stated that «the positive impact, the so-called replacement rate, is indeterminate. There is no numerical evaluation." An authoritative estimate of what could happen in the future, however, is contained in the bulletin of Bank of Italy of January 2020. Here we read that in the period 2020-2022 «the major exits from the labor market connected with the new forms of early retirement (quota 100) would only be partially compensated from hiring". So there would not be a one-to-one replacement rate as Salvini states. That things would most likely go this, moreover, was supported by several studies - among others, one of the Parliamentary Budget Office – and several experts even before i data confirmed this, as we wrote in our February analysis 2019. This is mainly due to the fact that older workers and young ones are not often a homogeneous workforce that lends itself to one perfect replaceability. There is also concern that an increase in pension expenditure risks translating into higher costs in the medium term of work (today's pensions are paid by today's workers), with negative consequences on employment. The verdict Matteo Salvini supported that thanks to quota 100, 300 thousand people have retired and that as many young people have consequently found a job. The statement is wrong primarily regarding the number of beneficiaries of quota 100: there were 150 thousand in 2019 and in 2020 they could to be another 30 thousand or so. Furthermore, these 180 thousand pensioners do not have probably freed 180 thousand jobs, considering that – according to what was stated by the INPS president – ​​about 30 percent of them do not they were workers. Which then 150 thousand young people - half the figure reported by secretary of the League - have found work thanks to the retirements of 100 cannot be known from official data at the moment. But the predictions are that a one-to-one replacement rate between new retirees and young people assumed will not occur: as reported by the Bank of Italy in its January bulletin, the replacement between pensioners and new hires is expected in the period 2020-2022 it is only partial. A scenario that had indeed been predicted by the experts even before the data for the first year were known of operation of the measurement. In conclusion for Salvini a “Pinocchio going". * Pensions * Odds 100 ## SUPPORT REPORT CARD Politics without small talk. 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Quota 100 gave the opportunity to 300 thousand Italians to retire at 62 63 64 and to as many young people to start working min 2705