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Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy. We need your help. More Info ### I would like to contribute One Time Monthly Yearly Join Now # Fact-checking Donald Trump on his economy and Joe Biden’s * Economy * Jobs ![\\"Former](\\" Former President Donald Trump in Philadelphia on June 30, 2023. (AP) ![\\"Louis](\\" By Louis Jacobson August 21, 2023 Days after his fourth indictment, former President Donald Trump released a video on a very different topic: the economy. In his Aug. 16 video, released on the conservative video site Rumble and mass emailed to supporters, Trump touted his economic record and suggested it outperformed that of his successor and potential 2024 presidential rival, Joe Biden. \"Any numbers you see that are economically positive in the Biden administration are because they\'re running on the fumes of what we created years prior to their taking office,\" Trump said. Separately, Trump repeated several of the talking points during an Aug. 17 interview with Fox Business Network host Larry Kudlow, who was once an economic adviser in Trump’s White House. Although some of Trump’s statements are accurate, particularly on mortgage rates, others are either misleading or plain wrong. He often cherry-picks data to minimize the economic fallout during his presidency, while maximizing the pandemic’s impact on the economy during Biden’s tenure. Here’s a rundown of six Trump claims. \"Under Biden, real incomes have gone down by $7,400 per family. Under President Trump, yearly income went up by more than $6,000.\" This is wrong on both ends. In footnotes to the speech, the campaign cited inflation-adjusted median household income, saying it \"increased from $66,657 in 2016 to $72,808 in 2019.\" Those numbers are correct — but Trump also served as president for all of 2020. In 2020, the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, this income figure dropped to $71,186. So, the gain on Trump’s entire watch was $4,529, not \"more than $6,000.\" If you use the same statistic for Biden, there has been a loss, but a much more modest one than Trump said. The most recent figure available is for 2021, which represented a drop of $402, not the $7,400 Trump cited. (It’s unknown what the 2022 data will show.) To get the $7,400 loss under Biden, Trump cites an analysis by the conservative Heritage Foundation. It said in January 2023 that the average family \"has effectively lost $7,400 in annual income since Biden took office\" because of inflation. The Heritage Foundation did not explain its calculation, but it would not have been an apples-to-apples comparison to the figure under Trump because the available inflation data stopped at December 2022. Since then, inflation has more than halved, slipping to about 3%. \"Just 2.1 million new jobs have been created during Biden\'s first 30 months in office, which is a disgrace. By contrast, in my first 30 months in office, we created 4.9 million new jobs.\" This is a repeat of a statement we rated False. Trump is wrong both on the numbers of jobs and on who oversaw more job gains. During Trump’s first 30 months, the number of nonfarm jobs rose by 5.2 million, but during Biden’s first 30 months, the number rose by 13.2 million. Trump’s campaign justifies his accounting by saying that Biden doesn’t deserve credit for about 11 million jobs gained during the post-pandemic bounceback. But an ideologically diverse group of economists told PolitiFact that Trump’s approach treats the two presidents unequally, and in a self-serving way. Trump’s method of using the first 30 months superficially seems fair to Biden, who has served that many months in office. But it effectively eliminates any pandemic job losses from Trump’s column and shifts them all to Biden. \"Inflation has reached the highest level in half a century.\" This needs context. Inflation did hit the highest level in four decades in June 2022, at about 9%. But it fell to about one-third of that level in the subsequent year. \"Mortgage rates are pushing a brutal 7%.\" This is accurate. For the most recent week available at the time of Trump’s video, the week of Aug. 10, the average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 6.96%. On Aug. 17, after his video was posted, the rate rose again, to 7.09%. This is a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s quest to stamp out inflation by raising interest rates. \"When I was your president, the 30-year mortgage rate reached a record low of 2.65%.\" Trump is close, but this needs context. The mortgage rate fell to 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, although it rose to 2.79%, by his final week in office, the week of Jan. 14. But Trump leaves out that this low point for mortgage rates came amid the pandemic, when officials were more concerned about promoting economic activity. At the time, the Federal Reserve was setting its interest rate near zero. Mortgage rates continued to be about that low during the first year of Biden’s presidency. But then. inflation concerns increased and the Fed began raising its interest rate. \"We had gasoline down to $1.87 a gallon.\" Gasoline has surely been pricier under Biden, but Trump’s figure ignores the unusual pandemic-driven circumstances around that low amount. National average gasoline prices fell to $1.79 in May 2020, when much economic activity, commuting and travel stopped. When Trump left office — as the pandemic was easing but still having a major economic impact — average gasoline prices were higher, $2.38. And over the course of his presidency, the price averaged $2.48. Experts say key reasons gasoline prices have been under Biden are the return to economic normalcy, which increased demand, and the war in Ukraine, which led Western nations to limit their purchases of Russian oil, constraining supply, at least temporarily. Under Biden, gasoline peaked at $5 in June 2022, then fell as low as $3.09 in December 2022 before rising to $3.85 in August 2023. Overall, gasoline prices under Biden through August 2023 have averaged $3.51. That’s significantly higher than under Trump. Sign Up For Our Weekly Newsletter ### Our Sources Donald Trump, video on the economy, Aug. 16, 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, inflation-adjusted median household income, accessed Aug. 17, 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 30-year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States, accessed Aug. 17, 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, all employees, total nonfarm, accessed Aug. 17, 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, federal funds effective rate, accessed Aug. 17, 2023 Energy Information Administration, weekly U.S. regular all formulations retail gasoline prices, accessed Aug. 17, 2023 Heritage Foundation, \"New Heritage Analysis Finds Average American Family Is Effectively $7,400 Poorer Under Biden,\" Jan 12, 2023 PolitiFact, \"Under Joe Biden, is inflation coming down or are prices much higher? Both,\" July 31, 2023 PolitiFact, \"Donald Trump vastly underestimates job gains under Joe Biden,\" August 8, 2023 PolitiFact, \"How strong is consumer confidence under Joe Biden?\" August 3, 2023 ## Browse the Truth-O-Meter ### More by Louis Jacobson ![](\\" ![](\\" Jon Tester stated on September 8, 2024 in a Facebook ad: Tim Sheehy “would let politicians like him ban abortion, with no exceptions for rape or to save a woman’s life, and criminalize women.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 12, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 7, 2024 in a rally in Mosinee, Wis.: Vice President Kamala Harris “cast the tiebreaking votes that caused the worst inflation in American history, costing a typical American family $28,000.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 8, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in su discurso de aceptación en la Convención Nacional Demócrata: El expresidente Donald Trump “tiene la intención de promulgar lo que, en efecto, es un impuesto nacional sobre las ventas…que elevaría los precios para las familias de clase media a casi $4,000 al año”. ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Marta Campabadal Graus • September 5, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 23, 2024 in a campaign event in Glendale, Ariz.: “There’s been a 43% increase in violent crimes since I left office.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 4, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention: Former President Donald Trump \"intends to enact what, in effect, is a national sales tax ... that would raise prices on middle-class families by almost $4,000 a year.\" ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 30, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" JD Vance stated on August 25, 2024 in an interview on NBC\'s \"Meet the Press\": “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you\'re ultimately much better off.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • August 29, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 21, 2024 in a Truth Social post: “The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 23, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 8, 2024 in a press conference: Says his Jan. 6, 2021, speech on the White House Ellipse drew the “same number of people,” as the 1963 March on Washington where Martin Luther King Jr. gave his “I Have a Dream” speech. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • August 9, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on August 6, 2024 in un mitin de campaña en Filadelfia: \"El crimen violento aumentó bajo Donald Trump\". ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 9, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on August 6, 2024 in a rally in Philadelphia: “Violent crime was up under Donald Trump.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 7, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 30, 2024 in a rally in Atlanta: Donald Trump “intends to cut” Medicare. ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 7, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Joe Biden stated on August 2, 2024 in a written statement: \"Since Vice President Harris and I took office … incomes have risen faster than prices.\" ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 6, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 30, 2024 in an event in Atlanta: \"Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security.\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Pete Buttigieg stated on July 28, 2024 in an interview on Fox News Sunday: “Even before the pandemic, America went into a manufacturing recession.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 18, 2024 in a speech in North Carolina: “Today, America has record energy production and we are energy independent.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 26, 2024 ### Fact-checking Donald Trump on his economy and Joe Biden’s * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 12, 2024 in an Instagram post: A video shows a body that Israel embedded with a bomb exploding during a Palestinian funeral procession. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Sofia Ahmed • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 11, 2024 in a post: “ESPN has fired Shannon Sharpe.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Gideon Hess • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Threads posts stated on September 12, 2024 in a post on Threads: An image shows Travis Kelce responding to Elon Musk X post that followed Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Madison Czopek • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 12, 2024 in an Instagram post: Former President Donald Trump admitted during the Sept. 10 presidential debate that he “blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Loreben Tuquero • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 10, 2024 in a Facebook post: 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![](\\" ![](\\" Yes on 4 stated on September 10, 2024 in a TV ad: Florida’s six-week abortion law has “no real exceptions. 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Not even for rape.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Samantha Putterman • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 11, 2024 in una publicación en Facebook: Imagen muestra carnet del Partido Comunista de la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris. ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Maria Briceño • September 13, 2024 Load more #### Offices District of Columbia 1800 I Street NW Washington, DC 20006 Florida 801 3rd St. S St. Petersburg, FL 33701 727-821-9494 #### People * Joe Biden * Kamala Harris * Donald Trump * Mitch McConnell * Hakeem Jeffries * Ron DeSantis #### State Editions * California * Florida * Iowa * Michigan * New Hampshire * New York * North Carolina * Pennsylvania * Texas * West Virginia * Wisconsin #### About Us * Our Process * Our Staff * En Español * Who pays for PolitiFact? * Advertise with Us * Corrections and Updates * Newsletters #### RSS Feeds * Recent Articles and Fact-checks * Recent Fact-checks Suggest a Fact-check #### Follow us The Facts Newsletter Sign up Terms & Conditions Privacy Policy Copyright ©All Rights Reserved Poynter Institute 2020, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization ![\\"\\"](\\" ✕ * * *
Inflation has reached the highest level in half a century