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Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy. We need your help. More Info ### I would like to contribute One Time Monthly Yearly Join Now ![](\\" ![](\\" Bernie Sanders stated on March 15, 2016 in a political ad for Bernie 2016: \"The Trans-Pacific trade deal could cost America 448,000 more jobs.\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" half-true/6479cbc723379f0ee49c269b0b9790b7.jpg.\\") ![\\"half- true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") * Ohio * Trade * Bernie Sanders By Nadia Pflaum March 24, 2016 # Bernie Sanders\' ad says Trans-Pacific Partnership could cost 448,000 jobs Bernie Sanders’ campaign is flooding Ohio airwaves with a TV ad that attacks the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a job killer. \"The Trans-Pacific trade deal could cost America 448,000 more jobs,\" says the narrator of the ad, which has run 200 times in Cincinnati and Cleveland, according to the Political TV Ad Archive. Railing against foreign trade deals is a running theme in Sanders’ campaign. He’s been quoted saying that he opposed every trade deal that has called for his vote, and that NAFTA, CAFTA, and Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China are \"a disaster for the American worker.\" (Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, even though she used to promote it as secretary of state.) The ad says the deal among 12 Pacific Rim countries could cost America 448,000 jobs. Since Sanders is using such a specific figure, we wanted to know where that number is coming from, and how other experts view that estimate. Is it possible for anyone to know how many jobs the deal could cost the United States? The TPP’s table of contents is exhausting to look at. There are 30 chapters, with titles like \"Textiles and Apparel\" and \"Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.\" Jeronim Capaldo, research fellow with the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University, is the chief author of the study that came up with 448,000 jobs lost as a result of the TPP. He explained the elements behind that projection. Other economists use models that assume a baseline of either 100-percent employment, or a static annual employment rate, and calculate from there, Capaldo said. Those models look at trade as though it’s in a vacuum, without consideration of what workers in the world economy might experience. He believes that his study is more realistic. \"The first step is to understand the effect that this trade deal would have on growth, which in economics is GDP,\" Capaldo said, \"and the second is the effect that a change in GDP would have on employment, based on the analysis of 50 years of data that we have for every country in the world.\" In the United States, total income has decreased constantly since the mid 1970s, Capaldo said. \"That is pretty defining in people’s lives, and if it’s constant, it’s a significant element of the story.\" The Tufts model projected employers’ short-term costs going up as a result of the TPP, Capaldo said. In reaction, bosses cut pay, which negatively impacts workers’ ability to buy stuff. A loss in consumption goes hand-in-hand with a loss in investment, and those two factors result in further job loss. And the types of jobs that would be lost are an important part of the story. \"Take the case of Oregon,\" he said. \"People who lose jobs on ranches and factories in eastern Oregon aren’t going to turn around and immediately find a high-tech job in Portland. It doesn’t happen that way.\" We found another economist who agrees that the TPP will cost jobs, but not quite to the prediction Capaldo’s study makes. Dean Baker, the co-director at the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research, said the 448,000-jobs figure \"wouldn’t be my best guess, but it’s not an obviously ridiculous number.\" Baker said the gains and losses go both ways. Trade deals \"open up our markets, but we import much more than we export,\" Baker said. That means we are operating at a trade deficit, and when there is less demand in our economy, that leads to higher unemployment. \"Implicitly, if we had a smaller trade deficit, we’d be closer to full employment,\" he said. #### Featured Fact-check ![](\\" ![](\\" Social Media stated on September 6, 2024 in in social media posts Haitian immigrants are eating pets and wildlife in Springfield, Ohio. ![\\"true\\"](\\" false/33efdb6633e5e2fdc2d4e2f63383a1e0.jpg.\\") ![\\"false\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") By Jeff Cercone • September 9, 2024 The Tufts researchers were too pessimistic in their predictions, Baker said. \"Assuming nothing will offset the job losses is an overly strong assumption,\" Baker said. \"The Tufts study fails to acknowledge countervailing effects. Factors outside the trade deal will counteract job loss caused by the trade deal. So the actual number is likely to be less.\" For example, he explained, increased unemployment in manufacturing due to the TPP and increased imports might lead to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates often encourage construction and development, and investments in those sectors, which would create jobs in construction and development. But the manufacturing sector would still take a hit. We got a very contrary opinion from Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which favors free trade. He told us he regards the 448,000 figure as \"somewhere between junk and rubbish.\" Hufbauer analyzed the NAFTA trade deal in a paper, \"NAFTA at 20,\" which went over similar ground with regard to trade deals and employment. \"We found zero association between freer trade agreements and larger employment deficits,\" he said, adding, \"The model the Tufts researchers use is not available. They don’t publish it, so it’s hard to check it.\" Capaldo, who co-authored the Tufts study, laughed a little when we asked him about access to his model. He told us that models are made up of two things: the description of the methodology used, and the code that computes the data to achieve the predicted outcome. \"There is not a single organization that makes their computer code public,\" Capaldo said. \"I compare it to a restaurant. You look at the menu and see the ingredients and you can ask the waiter how a dish is made. They’ll give you everything that’s in there, but they won’t give you the recipe. They’ll give you all you need to understand how it’s done, but they won’t give you the code. The computer code is the chef-work.\" Other publicly available economic models, he said, are merely templates. Our ruling Sanders’ ad says that the Trans-Pacific Partnership \"could cost America 448,000 more jobs.\" We’ve asked economists to sort out the good and bad of trade deals before, and found that their opinions on outcomes can be wildly contradictory. So when it comes to predicting such outcomes, it really depends on whose Magic 8 Ball you use. It’s important for people to understand that this number is an estimate, and it’s the biggest estimate we found. Critics of the Tufts study say it goes the furthest to predict doomsday figures, without acknowledging offsetting effects. The author of the Tufts study says that other research glosses over the real-world elements that change the lives of workers in a global economy. A one-liner can’t possibly capture the possible outcome of a War and Peace- sized trade proposal. We rate this statement Half True. #### Read About Our Process The Principles of the Truth-O-Meter ### Our Sources Working Paper, \"Trading down: Unemployment, inequality and other risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,\" Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University, Jan. 2016 Website, \"Bernie Sanders on Free Trade,\" OnTheIssues.com Web page, \"TPP trade deal: Does it threaten American jobs? Depends on who you ask,\" International Business Times, Feb. 3, 2016 ECIPE paper, \"‘Splendid Isolation’ as Trade Policy: Mercantilism and Crude Keynesianism in ‘the Capaldo Study’ of TTIP,\" March 2015 Article, \"A mean feat: Despite forecasters’ best efforts, growth is devilishly hard to predict,\" the Economist, Jan. 9, 2016 Interview, Jeronim Capaldo, research fellow, Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University, Mar. 22, 2016 ## Browse the Truth-O-Meter ### More by Nadia Pflaum ![](\\" ![](\\" Ohio Republican Party stated on October 28, 2016 in a campaign mailer: \"Casey Weinstein: No faith in our military\" ... \"When some of our cadets wanted to watch a religious film, Casey Weinstein sued the U.S. military. Sued our soldiers?\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • November 7, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" Bloggers stated on September 30, 2016 in an online article: \"Tens of thousands of fraudulent Clinton votes found in Ohio warehouse.\" ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • November 1, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on October 22, 2016 in a rally outside Cleveland: Says Ohio’s I-X Center \"used to be a great plant,\" but \"thousands of people of worked here, and they left\" when their jobs were moved overseas. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Nadia Pflaum • October 31, 2016 ![](\\" official-portrait/6bf029c158b50f6bf01d20a829d8828c.jpg\\") ![](\\" official-portrait/de43154da15e43e00eea6e32aec9a166.jpg\\") Rob Portman stated on October 20, 2016 in the Ohio Senate debate: Says Ted Strickland \"in this campaign bragged about his A-plus rating with the NRA. ... He has said he has a mixed and spotty record on this issue and that he can be criticized for it. Those are his words, not mine. So I don’t know where he is on this issue.\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" By Nadia Pflaum • October 21, 2016 ![](\\" official-portrait/6bf029c158b50f6bf01d20a829d8828c.jpg\\") ![](\\" official-portrait/de43154da15e43e00eea6e32aec9a166.jpg\\") Rob Portman stated on October 17, 2016 in at a debate in Columbus, Ohio: Says Sen. Rob Portman says Ted Strickland earned $400,000 a year as a lobbyist after leaving Ohio for Washington. ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • October 20, 2016 ![](\\" ted-strickland____/81c1b4baa950ba5965a5fdfc754ff5f9.jpg\\") ![](\\" ted-strickland____/786d3a8b57ebc4eca1b06825b7524ad1.jpg\\") Ted Strickland stated on October 14, 2016 in in a Ohio senatorial candidate debate: Says Sen. Rob Portman said, \"It would be irresponsible not to cut Medicare.\" ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • October 20, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" ClearPath Action Fund stated on September 28, 2016 in a campaign ad: Says \"Rob Portman voted for the bipartisan bill to affirm climate change is real, humans significantly contribute to it and it needs to be addressed.\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • October 10, 2016 ![](\\" ted-strickland____/81c1b4baa950ba5965a5fdfc754ff5f9.jpg\\") ![](\\" ted-strickland____/786d3a8b57ebc4eca1b06825b7524ad1.jpg\\") Ted Strickland stated on September 21, 2016 in a campaign ad: Says Rob Portman \"even voted to allow people on the terrorism watch list to buy guns.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Nadia Pflaum • September 29, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 8, 2016 in a rally in Cleveland: \"We spend more per student than almost any other major country in the world.\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" By Nadia Pflaum • September 21, 2016 ![](\\" mugs-mug- independentgroup____________________/41dfed38296fe3f48d11ff286b0da1cc.jpg\\") ![](\\" mugs-mug- independentgroup____________________/df4eaf56ef02f0fe8dcb1410d3a2d2a7.jpg\\") American Unity PAC stated on August 30, 2016 in a campaign ad: Says Ted Strickland supported giving $150 billion to Iranian regime that persecutes women, Christians and gays. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Nadia Pflaum • September 15, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" U.S. Chamber of Commerce stated on August 12, 2016 in a campaign ad : \"As governor, Ted Strickland left only 89 cents in Ohio’s rainy day fund.\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" By Nadia Pflaum • September 8, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" National Republican Senatorial Committee stated on August 18, 2016 in \"Flush,\" a campaign ad : \"And while (Ted) Strickland proposed cuts for services for children, he wasted over $250,000 remodeling his bathrooms at the governor’s mansion.\" ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • September 1, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" Viral image stated on August 29, 2016 in an image shared on social media from NaturalNews.com: As the number of vaccines administered to children has increased in the United States, so has the autism rate. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Nadia Pflaum • August 29, 2016 ![](\\" mugs-donkey/ac9cfb0dcf8dcb50888edccc72adfae6.jpg\\") ![](\\" mugs-donkey/1b0a94aa5ab4fad0c38136fe7c2770e3.jpg\\") Ohio Democratic Party stated on August 12, 2016 in an online ad campaign, \"The Portman Files\": \"Who would sign up to speak for a (Haitian) dictator? Rob Portman.\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • August 23, 2016 ![](\\" ![](\\" Viral image stated on August 15, 2016 in viral image circulating on the internet: Says there were multiple instances of voter fraud in Wood County, Ohio. ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Nadia Pflaum • August 16, 2016 ### Bernie Sanders\' ad says Trans-Pacific Partnership could cost 448,000 jobs * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 13, 2024 in a post: Vice President Kamala Harris’ college professors disparaged her as their “worst student.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 17, 2024 in a post: Photo shows Kamala Harris posing beside Sean “Diddy” Combs. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Sara Swann • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 18, 2024 in Instagram posts: “BREAKING: Police found ‘explosives’ in car near former President Donald Trump’s rally site on Long Island.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Sofia Ahmed • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Dave McCormick stated on September 13, 2024 in an X post: Charleroi, Pennsylvania, “has grown by 2,000% due to an influx in migrants.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Caleb McCullough • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 13, 2024 in una publicación en Facebook: \"El gran respaldo de Taylor Swift\" a Kamala Harris \"le cuesta $125 millones en acuerdos de marca\". ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Maria Briceño • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Threads posts stated on September 16, 2024 in an Instagram post: Taylor Swift “lost 17 million followers by endorsing Kamala.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Ciara O\'Rourke • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Kari Lake stated on September 13, 2024 in a post on X: Rep. Ruben Gallego’s “first act in Congress was to propose legislation to BAN the use of the term ‘illegal alien.’” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Mia Osmonbekov • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Sherrod Brown stated on September 4, 2024 in a TV interview: Of Bernie Moreno, “Now, he’s arguing for a national abortion ban, no exceptions.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Caleb McCullough • September 19, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 16, 2024 in a Facebook post: “Country Music Television (CMT) has announced a permanent boycott of Taylor Swift.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Ciara O\'Rourke • September 18, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Viral image stated on September 11, 2024 in a Facebook post: “Disney World officially moving to Nashville.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Ciara O\'Rourke • September 18, 2024 Load more ### Support independent fact-checking. Become a member! 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The URL ' translates to Politifact Ohio Statements 2016 March 24 Bernie S A Tufts University study has Bernie's back transPacific trade pact However I can break it down further into a more readable format ' translates to 'Politifact website' 'ohio' translates to 'Ohio' referring to the US state 'statements' translates to'statements' referring to a collection of quotes or claims made by politicians '2016' translates to 'the year 2016' 'mar' translates to 'March' referring to a month '24' translates to 'the 24th day of the month' 'bernies' translates to 'Bernie Sanders' referring to the US politician 'tuftsuniversitystudy' translates to 'a study from Tufts University' referring to an academic institution '