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Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy. We need your help. More Info ### I would like to contribute One Time Monthly Yearly Join Now ![](\\" ![](\\" Chris Coons stated on July 30, 2023 in an interview on NBC\'s \"Meet the Press\": “Consumer confidence is the highest it’s been in years.” ![\\"true\\"](\\" mostly-false/6a6ef6075c162fdccf5eb960e683dcd1.jpg.\\") ![\\"barely- true\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") * Economy * Polls and Public Opinion * Chris Coons ![\\"Sen.](\\" Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., on May 11, 2023. (AP) ![\\"Louis](\\" By Louis Jacobson August 3, 2023 # How strong is consumer confidence under Joe Biden? #### If Your Time is short * There are two major surveys of consumer confidence, and one of them — produced by the Conference Board — shows the highest confidence levels in just two years. * The other major survey, produced by the University of Michigan, shows confidence near historical lows. This survey’s questions are more sensitive to the effect of high inflation, which has been front of mind in recent months. See the sources for this fact-check A gradual easing of inflation has helped increase public optimism about the economy, said one of President Joe Biden’s top supporters in the Senate. \"I think President Biden has an incredibly strong record to run on,\" Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said July 30 on NBC’s \"Meet the Press.\" Coons referred to official data that showed year-over-year inflation had dropped to about 3%, close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. \"Consumer confidence is the highest it\'s been in years,\" Coons said. \"So, the ground is moving in his direction.\" As Republican presidential candidates hammer Biden on the economy, we wondered whether Coons is correct that \"consumer confidence is the highest it’s been in years.\" There are two main consumer confidence surveys, and they differ significantly on how optimistic the public is about the economy today. What the data shows Coons’ office pointed to results of the consumer confidence index produced monthly by the Conference Board, a business membership and research organization. The group’s most recent finding, released July 25, reported that consumer confidence — as measured by an online survey — reached a two-year high in July. Two years does qualify as \"years\" — as Coons broadly phrased it — though barely. However, a second consumer sentiment survey, run by the University of Michigan, has less rosy data. Although the Michigan survey shows a general rise in confidence since its low in June 2022 — the month inflation peaked — the confidence levels in the survey remain lower than they were earlier in Biden’s term. The current level of consumer sentiment in the Michigan survey is close to rock bottom. Looking all the way back to 1978, today’s level is lower than it\'s been in 92% of months in the statistic’s history. #### Featured Fact-check ![](\\" ![](\\" JD Vance stated on August 25, 2024 in an interview on NBC\'s \"Meet the Press\" “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you\'re ultimately much better off.” ![\\"true\\"](\\" false/33efdb6633e5e2fdc2d4e2f63383a1e0.jpg.\\") ![\\"false\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 29, 2024 Although the economy is not officially in a recession, consumer confidence levels were lower than now only during the early 1980s recession, the Great Recession that began in 2008, and the brief coronavirus pandemic recession. All told, the Conference Board measurement is higher today than it was from about 2007 to 2017. Yet Michigan’s measurement is lower today than it was from about 2009 to 2021. So, why does consumer confidence under Biden look so different depending on the metric? Comparing the two metrics Both measures are considered credible, but even some veteran economists told PolitiFact they didn’t realize there were differences between them. The surveys’ differences are highly relevant now. The biggest one relates to the questions asked of consumers. Economists from the Michigan survey and the Conference Board agreed about the differences between the two surveys. The University of Michigan survey \"tends to be more sensitive to inflation than the Conference Board\'s measure, which tends to be more sensitive to labor market conditions,\" said Joanne W. Hsu, consumer surveys director at the University of Michigan. Allen Li, an associate economist with the Conference Board, agreed with Hsu, saying the Michigan survey \"uses different methodology and a different set of questions, which makes their index a little more sensitive to rising interest rates and elevated prices.\" With high inflation weighing heavily on the questions asked by the University of Michigan survey — and with continuing strong labor markets boosting the Conference Board survey — it’s easy to see why the two surveys diverged. \"It’s been rare for these two measures to diverge as much they have, for as long as they have,\" said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank. Our ruling Coons said, \"Consumer confidence is the highest it’s been in years.\" There are two major consumer confidence surveys, and they use different methodologies. One of them — produced by the Conference Board — shows the highest confidence levels in just two years. However, the other major survey — produced by the University of Michigan — shows confidence near historical lows, with 92% of months since January 1978 recording a higher confidence level than today. This survey’s questions are more sensitive to the impact of high inflation, which has been front of mind in recent months. Although both of the key measures of consumer confidence have been rising for the past year, only one supports the notion of \"years\" — and it’s only two years. The other credible measure has consumer confidence at a level close to historical lows. The statement has an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression, so we rate it Mostly False. #### Read About Our Process The Principles of the Truth-O-Meter ### Our Sources Chris Coons, interview on NBC’s \"Meet the Press,\" July 30, 2021 Conference Board, \"US Consumer Confidence Improved Again in July,\" July 25, 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, \"University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment,\" accessed July 31, 2023 The Associated Press, \"U.S. consumer confidence jumps to a two-year high as inflation eases,\" July 25, 2023 Email interview with Gary Burtless, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, July 31, 2023 Email interview with Joanne W. Hsu, director of surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan, July 31, 2023 Email interview with Allen Li, associate economist with the Conference Board, July 31, 2023 Interview with Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, July 31, 2023 ## Browse the Truth-O-Meter ### More by Louis Jacobson ![](\\" ![](\\" Jon Tester stated on September 8, 2024 in a Facebook ad: Tim Sheehy “would let politicians like him ban abortion, with no exceptions for rape or to save a woman’s life, and criminalize women.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 12, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 7, 2024 in a rally in Mosinee, Wis.: Vice President Kamala Harris “cast the tiebreaking votes that caused the worst inflation in American history, costing a typical American family $28,000.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 8, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in su discurso de aceptación en la Convención Nacional Demócrata: El expresidente Donald Trump “tiene la intención de promulgar lo que, en efecto, es un impuesto nacional sobre las ventas…que elevaría los precios para las familias de clase media a casi $4,000 al año”. ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Marta Campabadal Graus • September 5, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 23, 2024 in a campaign event in Glendale, Ariz.: “There’s been a 43% increase in violent crimes since I left office.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 4, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention: Former President Donald Trump \"intends to enact what, in effect, is a national sales tax ... that would raise prices on middle-class families by almost $4,000 a year.\" ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 30, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" JD Vance stated on August 25, 2024 in an interview on NBC\'s \"Meet the Press\": “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you\'re ultimately much better off.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • August 29, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 21, 2024 in a Truth Social post: “The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 23, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 8, 2024 in a press conference: Says his Jan. 6, 2021, speech on the White House Ellipse drew the “same number of people,” as the 1963 March on Washington where Martin Luther King Jr. gave his “I Have a Dream” speech. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • August 9, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on August 6, 2024 in un mitin de campaña en Filadelfia: \"El crimen violento aumentó bajo Donald Trump\". ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 9, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on August 6, 2024 in a rally in Philadelphia: “Violent crime was up under Donald Trump.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 7, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 30, 2024 in a rally in Atlanta: Donald Trump “intends to cut” Medicare. ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 7, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Joe Biden stated on August 2, 2024 in a written statement: \"Since Vice President Harris and I took office … incomes have risen faster than prices.\" ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • August 6, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 30, 2024 in an event in Atlanta: \"Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security.\" ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Pete Buttigieg stated on July 28, 2024 in an interview on Fox News Sunday: “Even before the pandemic, America went into a manufacturing recession.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 31, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on July 18, 2024 in a speech in North Carolina: “Today, America has record energy production and we are energy independent.” ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"mostly-true\\"](\\" mostly-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • July 26, 2024 ### How strong is consumer confidence under Joe Biden? * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 12, 2024 in an Instagram post: A video shows a body that Israel embedded with a bomb exploding during a Palestinian funeral procession. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Sofia Ahmed • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 11, 2024 in a post: “ESPN has fired Shannon Sharpe.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Gideon Hess • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 12, 2024 in an Instagram post: Former President Donald Trump admitted during the Sept. 10 presidential debate that he “blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Loreben Tuquero • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 10, 2024 in a Facebook post: Patron, Don Julio and Pink Whitney tequila recalled because they contained fecal matter. ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jeff Cercone • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Elissa Slotkin stated on September 11, 2024 in a TV ad: Mike Rogers supported “laws that could eliminate IVF and birth control.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Caleb McCullough • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Instagram posts stated on September 11, 2024 in an Instagram post: \"Debate moderators made the false claim to Donald Trump that there is nowhere in the United States where abortion is legal up until birth.\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Jeff Cercone • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Facebook posts stated on September 12, 2024 in a Facebook post: ABC News fired presidential debate moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis. ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Sofia Ahmed • September 13, 2024 * ![](\\" ![](\\" Yes on 4 stated on September 10, 2024 in a TV ad: Florida’s six-week abortion law has “no real exceptions. 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Consumer confidence is the highest it’s been in years