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Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy. We need your help. More Info ### I would like to contribute One Time Monthly Yearly Join Now ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on March 9, 2024 in a rally in Rome, Georgia: \"In February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared.\" ![\\"true\\"](\\" false/33efdb6633e5e2fdc2d4e2f63383a1e0.jpg.\\") ![\\"false\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") * Economy * Jobs * Race and Ethnicity * Workers * Donald Trump ![\\"Former](\\" Former President and Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump speaks March 9, 2024, in Rome, Ga. (AP) ![\\"Louis](\\" By Louis Jacobson March 12, 2024 # Fact-checking Donald Trump’s dubious claim about job losses for native-born Americans #### If Your Time is short * The number of \"jobs that disappeared\" is less than a half million for February. * It’s common for the metric Trump used to show a large decline in jobs during the year’s first two months, because it is not adjusted in a way that smooths out regular seasonal cycles of employment. * Looking at one month obscures the overall trend line under President Joe Biden, which shows an increase of 6.2 million jobs for native-born Americans since his January 2021 inauguration. See the sources for this fact-check During a recent campaign rally, former President Donald Trump amplified a growing argument among some Republicans that foreigners are taking jobs away from native-born Americans. On March 9 in Rome, Georgia, Trump said, \"Unions should endorse Trump because I am closing our border good and tight. … In February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared. Think of that. You lost 1 million jobs. Black people. That’s who lost the jobs. Hispanic people. That’s who lost the jobs.\" However, this is wrong on several levels, including that economists consider Trump’s statistic to be cherry-picked and all but meaningless. Trump’s campaign did not answer an inquiry for this fact-check. How credible is the statistic Trump used? The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics every month publishes the \"employment level for the native-born\" and calculates a monthly companion employment level statistic for the foreign-born. The native-born employment statistic emerges from the same monthly survey that asks households about who is working, who is unemployed but looking for work and who is not currently looking for work. This survey is used to calculate the widely tracked unemployment rate. Although the household survey also produces a raw number for people who are currently employed, economists consider this number inferior to the one from a different federal survey that asks businesses about the workers they employ. Also, the household survey has a significantly higher margin of error because it’s much smaller than the survey of businesses. Of the two surveys, only the household survey asks demographic questions, including whether the worker is native-born or foreign-born. But that doesn’t mean the overall employment numbers in the household survey are precise. For instance, in February, the month Trump referred to, the household survey found that the nation lost 184,000 jobs. By contrast, the survey of business establishments found that employment had increased by 275,000 jobs, which was broadly in line with monthly job gains over the past few years. \"It’s a terrible measure of employment,\" Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum said of the household survey. \"We don’t know what we’re really learning.\" Beyond this, Trump’s 1 million figure is exaggerated. #### Featured Fact-check ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on September 21, 2024 in an event in Bethlehem, Pa. “The last union member on a national ticket (was) Ronald Reagan.” ![\\"true\\"](\\" false/33efdb6633e5e2fdc2d4e2f63383a1e0.jpg.\\") ![\\"false\\"](\\" false.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 24, 2024 The household survey statistic shows that in February, the employment level for native-born Americans fell by 494,000, not 1 million. Seasonal differences also undercut Trump’s statistic One problem with using the household survey’s employment figure is that the number bounces around because it’s not \"seasonally adjusted\" — that is, regular, seasonal differences in hiring patterns aren’t smoothed out. (The establishment survey, by contrast, offers a seasonally adjusted number.) A recurring pattern in the native-born and foreign born employment data is that employment usually falls during the year’s first two months. One reason is that workers hired for the year-end holiday season leave their jobs. Another is that construction projects slow during winter’s depths. Since 2008, the household survey’s data shows that two-thirds of the time, January and February collectively produced a job loss for native-born workers. In most cases, these losses ranged from 500,000 to 2 million. So, a native- born job loss of about 500,000, such as the one in February, is not unprecedented. Losing the forest for the trees Focusing on one month also overlooks the broader trend that native-born employment has been robust on President Joe Biden’s watch. The native-born employment level has declined for each of the last three months, but the increase during Biden’s tenure has been substantial nevertheless. Since Biden’s 2021 inauguration, native-born employment has risen by about 6.2 million jobs. Also, years when Biden was president account for two of the five instances since 2008 when native-born employment bucked the historical trend and rose in January and February. (We did not include 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the labor market.) \"Anyone who makes a big deal out of the monthly changes in the household survey is basically telling you that they don\'t understand the data,\" said Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. Our ruling Trump said, \"In February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared.\" Trump is wrong on the number — it was closer to 500,000 that month. But other things also make Trump’s statistic problematic. Economists say the survey Trump used for measuring raw changes in employment isn’t the most accurate. It’s common for this metric to show a large decline in jobs during the first two months of the year, because the statistic is not adjusted for regular seasonal cycles of employment. Also, focusing on one month obscures the overall trend line under Biden: an increase of 6.2 million jobs for native-born Americans since his inauguration. We rate the statement False. #### Read About Our Process The Principles of the Truth-O-Meter ### Our Sources Donald Trump, remarks at a rally in Rome, Ga., March 9, 2024 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, employment level-native-born, accessed March 9, 2024 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, employment level, accessed March 9, 2024 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, all employees-nonfarm, accessed March 9, 2024 Email interview with Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, March 9, 2024 Interview with Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, March 9, 2024 ## Browse the Truth-O-Meter ### More by Louis Jacobson ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on September 25, 2024 in an interview with MSNBC: “Even before the pandemic, (Donald Trump) lost manufacturing jobs, by most people’s estimates at least 200,000.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 26, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Sheehy stated on September 10, 2024 in an op-ed: Jon Tester “supported slashing Social Security benefits” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • September 25, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on September 21, 2024 in in Bethlehem, Pa.: “Donald Trump added more to the national debt than any other president, ever.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 25, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Senate Leadership Fund stated on September 17, 2024 in a TV ad: “Two years ago, Bob Casey promised us his vote will reduce inflation. ... Casey’s vote for reckless spending” made inflation worse. ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 25, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Walz stated on September 21, 2024 in an event in Bethlehem, Pa.: “The last union member on a national ticket (was) Ronald Reagan.” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • September 24, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on September 12, 2024 in a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina: Former President Donald Trump “started out with $400 million on a silver platter and then filed for bankruptcy six times.” ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 20, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Jon Tester stated on September 6, 2024 in a Facebook ad: “Tim Sheehy told us his health care plan: ‘We need to return health care to pure privatization.’ That would eliminate Medicare.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 20, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 13, 2024 in a rally in Las Vegas: Vice President Kamala Harris is “talking about bringing back the draft.” ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"pants-fire\\"](\\" pants-fire.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 18, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Tim Sheehy stated on August 21, 2024 in an X post: The “‘Inflation Reduction Act’ increased inflation and drove prices sky high!” ![\\"false\\"](\\" ![\\"false\\"](\\" By Louis Jacobson • September 17, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Jon Tester stated on September 8, 2024 in a Facebook ad: Tim Sheehy “would let politicians like him ban abortion, with no exceptions for rape or to save a woman’s life, and criminalize women.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 12, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on September 7, 2024 in a rally in Mosinee, Wis.: Vice President Kamala Harris “cast the tiebreaking votes that caused the worst inflation in American history, costing a typical American family $28,000.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 8, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris stated on August 22, 2024 in su discurso de aceptación en la Convención Nacional Demócrata: El expresidente Donald Trump “tiene la intención de promulgar lo que, en efecto, es un impuesto nacional sobre las ventas…que elevaría los precios para las familias de clase media a casi $4,000 al año”. ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"half-true\\"](\\" true.jpg\\") By Marta Campabadal Graus • September 5, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Donald Trump stated on August 23, 2024 in a campaign event in Glendale, Ariz.: “There’s been a 43% increase in violent crimes since I left office.” ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" th.jpg\\") ![\\"barely-true\\"](\\" barely-true.jpg\\") By Louis Jacobson • September 4, 2024 ![](\\" ![](\\" Kamala Harris 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In February alone nearly 1 million jobs held by nativeborn Americans disappeared