Since the positions of the chief plotters, Kowamine and Hayanari, were so low (and also from branch lines of lineages that would not even be a target for 'elimination of other clans by the Fujiwara clan') for planning such an insurrection and the people who were punished for being associated with the plan had no motives, there is a theory that proposes that the whole incident was made up.
首謀者である健岑と逸勢の地位が、このような謀反を計画するにはあまりにも低く（また、家系的にも傍流出身で「藤原氏による他氏排斥」の対象にもなり得ない）、また計画に関与したとしたとして処罰された人々も叛乱に荷担する動機が見当たらないことから、事件自体をでっちあげとみなす説もある。