Conventionally, it was believed in general that interference in the authority of the imperial court from the bakufu resulted in the above circumstances; but recently it is widely believed that, in addition to the friction between Kameyama and Sanekane SAIONJI, Kameyama's intimacy with Yasumori ADACHI who fell during the Shimotsuki Incident, as well as his ambition for 'Shinsei' (law reconstitution) produced suspiciousness among the Tokuso (the patrimonial head of the main branch of the Hojo clan) family who aimed to control not only the eastern part, but the entire country.
この理由については、従来幕府による朝廷権力の掣肘であるとする見解が主流であったが、近年では亀山が西園寺実兼との不和に加え、霜月騒動で失脚した安達泰盛と親しかった事や、「新制」に対し熱心であった態度が東国のみならず全国へ実効支配を広げようとする得宗勢力の不審を呼んだのではないかとする説が有力となっている。