Considering the history so far, Gotoba expected that Yoshitoki would soon be killed and that the Kanto Samurai Group would submit, but the bakufu faction called in its favors since the time of Yoritomo and allied with the majority of gokenin.
それまでの歴史から後鳥羽は、ほどなく義時が討ち取られ、関東武士たちも帰順すると見込んでいたが、幕府側は、頼朝以来の御恩を訴え、御家人の大多数を味方につけた。