There are various theories about the true reasons for his refusal, but according to one theory, he might have realized that the government would be difficult to handle following the defeat of the Army's ultranationalist Kodaha (Imperial Way) faction in the Aizawa Incident and the February 26 Incident that followed it.
辞退の真因に関しては各説あるが、近衛が親近感をもっていた大日本帝国陸軍皇道派の勢力が相沢事件とそれに続く二・二六事件により失墜していたことから、政権運営の困難を感じていたのではないかとの説がある。