At the time of the partition in 1947, Pakistan had a population of 32.5 million; the population increased by ~57.2% between the years 1990 and 2009. By 2030 Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the largest Muslim-majority country in the world. Pakistan is classified as a "young nation", with a median age of 23.4 in 2016; about 104 million people were under the age of 30 in 2010. In 2016 Pakistan's fertility rate was estimated to be 2.68, higher than its neighbour India (2.45). Around 35% of the people are under 15. The vast majority of those residing in southern Pakistan live along the Indus River, with Karachi being the most populous commercial city in the south. In eastern, western, and northern Pakistan, most of the population lives in an arc formed by the cities of Lahore, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Islamabad, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Gujrat, Jhelum, Sheikhupura, Nowshera, Mardan, and Peshawar. During 1990–2008, city dwellers made up 36% of Pakistan's population, making it the most urbanised nation in South Asia, which increased to 38% by 2013. Furthermore, 50% of Pakistanis live in towns of 5,000 people or more.