The Economist’s election model puts Trump in the leadSubscribeEnterpriseLog inMenuSkip to contentSubscribeEnterpriseLog inMenuThe world in briefCatch up on global daily news1843 magazineDive into compelling long readsPodcastsTune into engaging conversationsVideoWatch engaging short filmsDigital eventsGain insights from expertsNewslettersCurated news, direct to your inboxCurrent topicsWar in the Middle EastWar in UkraineThe World Ahead 2025Climate changeGeopoliticsThe world economyArtificial intelligenceUS presidential trackerCurrent topicsWar in the Middle EastWar in UkraineThe World Ahead 2025Climate changeGeopoliticsThe world economyArtificial intelligenceUS presidential trackerWorldWorldThe world this weekChinaUnited StatesEuropeBritainMiddle East & AfricaAsiaThe AmericasInternationalBusiness & economicsBusiness & economicsFinance & economicsBusinessBig Mac indexEconomic & financial indicatorsOpinionOpinionLeadersLetters to the editorBy InvitationIn depthIn depthScience & technologyBriefingGraphic detailInteractivesThe Economist explainsSpecial reportsTechnology QuarterlyEssaySchools briefCulture & societyCulture & societyCultureThe Economist readsObituaryWeekly editionWeekly editionThis weekPast editionsWeekly editionThe world in briefWar in the Middle EastWar in UkraineThe world economyArtificial intelligenceClimate changeArchive 1945German election 2025Dateline quizMy EconomistUnlimited digital access to all reporting, podcasts, newsletters and eventsSubscribeSUBSCRIBER BENEFITSPodcastsNewslettersVideoLive virtual eventsThe Economist appEspresso appSaved storiesAccountLog outAll episodesThe Intelligence | Global newsThe Economist’s election model puts Trump in the leadAlso on the daily podcast: Elon Musk’s robotaxis and the joy of Excel Oct 24th 2024ShareListen to this podcast Your browser does not support the <audio> element.The two American presidential candidates have been neck and neck. But this week, the Economist’s forecast model noted a shift towards Donald Trump. Why you might have a long wait for Elon Musk’s robotaxis (9:31). And the joy of Excel (16:35). Runtime: 23 minListen on: Apple Podcasts | SpotifyListen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—Subscribe to Economist Podcasts+For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.transcript iconTranscriptConverted by AIShowShareReuse this contentMore from PodcastsPodcast BabbageCould AI translate animal communication?Our podcast on science and technology. The second episode in a two-part series that explores animal communication and efforts to translate it in the age of AI39:34Podcast The Intelligence The real action ahead of Germany’s election is among the smaller partiesAlso on the daily podcast: Japan gets a late-arriving #MeToo moment and London’s ailing pie shops23:03Podcast Editor’s PicksThe changing math of mortgagesA handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist06:29Podcast Drum TowerWhy is China reviving the ancient art of calligraphy?Our weekly podcast on China. This week, we examine the Communist Party’s push to bring back an art form it once tried to erase28:24Podcast The Intelligence Why is China pushing to change diplomatic language on Taiwan?Also on the daily podcast: a high-profile conviction reveals holes in Britain’s justice system and a surprising take on footballers’ pay22:41Podcast Editor’s PicksAmerica and Europe head the wrong way with AIA handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist04:58LinkedInInstagramFacebookXTikTokYouTubeWhatsAppGet The Economist app on iOS or AndroidThe EconomistThe EconomistAboutReuse our contentSubscribeEconomist EnterpriseSecureDropThe Economist GroupThe Economist GroupThe Economist GroupEconomist IntelligenceEconomist ImpactEconomist Impact EventsEconomist Education CoursesContactContactHelp and supportAdvertisePress centreCareersCareersWorking hereExecutive JobsTo enhance your experience and ensure our website runs smoothly, we use cookies and similar technologies.Manage cookiesTerms of usePrivacyCookie PolicyAccessibilityModern Slavery StatementSitemapYour Data RightsCopyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2025. All rights reserved.


Before everyone freaks out, The Economist had Romney and Obama as [a tossup](https://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2012/11/02/ClintonvObamamk2.pdf) in 2012.