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Current Election Day Discussion Thread


discussions/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 644000 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6336287 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6280370 comments/r/politicsupdated by/u/Agondonter/u/CapitanDirtbag/u/DubTeeDub… and 19 more ⇒06 Nov 11:43https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1854126732955046026

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:39https://twitter.com/FoxReports/status/1854126340447911993

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:30https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854119193366450215

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:29https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1854119493829566657

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:28https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854123516322361533

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:18https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854111744278347885

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 03:35https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1854002757654528192

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:31https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1854003047556616527

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Sen. Ted Cruz wins re-election, overcoming challenge from Democrat Colin Allred

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Iowa passes voting amendment

NBC News projects Iowa has passed an amendment that requires citizenship and also lowers the voting age for primaries, allowing 17-year-olds who will be 18 years old by Election Day to participate.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:14AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins Colorado

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:02AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Missouri
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Montana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Utah

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:35AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Florida rejects abortion measure, further limiting access in the South

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Republican Mark Robinson loses North Carolina gubernatorial bid after tumultuous campaign

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:12AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Ohio

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11AP: A Decision Desk update on Texas

As polls close statewide in Texas, the AP is not yet declaring a winner in the race for president. AP’s Decision Team is waiting for election officials to report additional results of votes cast on Election Day, particularly in Democratic-leaning areas of the state.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Donald Trump wins North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Ohio

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New York.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins North Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins the statewide vote in Nebraska and two electoral votes
AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins New York
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins South Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Louisiana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Wyoming

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:00‘No credible threat’ in Pennsylvania, says Gov. Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said there had been multiple bomb threats called into polling locations across the state, but said so far there is “no credible threat” to the public.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 01:39The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Illinois.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:35The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Delaware.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New Jersey.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Donald Trump wins Arkansas.

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I thought the following article was interesting and for those who don’t religiously follow polling or know what is going on behind the scenes it provides a small peek behind the curtain….

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-harris-2024-election-polls-challenges-rcna176467

Here are some selected excerpts…

We pollsters face three core challenges that threaten the accuracy of all political surveys. Nobody has solved them, and it’s not clear anyone can. 

Here’s what we’re up against….

**Challenge #1: Almost nobody wants to talk to pollsters — and those who do might be weirdos. **

Polling is built on a simple idea: If we talk to a representative, miniature version of a state or country, we can estimate what the whole state or country thinks. It’s like getting a sample at an ice cream shop: one well-mixed spoonful tells you what a whole cone will taste like. 

But it’s getting tougher to reach the people needed to build that mini-country or mini-state. Response rates — how often people are willing to pick up a cold call or answer a text from us — have been dropping for decades. The response rates for Pew Research Center’s telephone surveys plunged from 36% in 1997 to 6% in 2018. Nate Cohn of The New York Times reported a 0.4% response rate to his polls in 2022. And any pollster will tell you response rates are low this year as well. 

When only 1 out of 100 people take a poll, pollsters have to make statistical adjustments. Some — such as getting the right demographic mix — are easy.

Other adjustments are not so easy.
 
**Challenge #2: We have to model our way around the fact that nobody talks to us. That’s risky.**

Everyone is using math to adjust for the sad fact that normal people don’t take surveys

**Challenge #3: Elections are closer than ever, so “the polls” will almost certainly be “wrong.”**


The last true blowout presidential win was Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election. The last 40 years have seen the most consistently competitive presidential races in living memory. That’s bad news for polls — which are blunt instruments rather than precision predictors. 

When a pollster randomly samples the electorate, they can — through no fault of their own — accidentally pick up a few too many voters from one side or the other. When we try to poll an upcoming election, we’re making (fallible) projections about who will and won’t turn out. And there’s plenty more uncertainty — from nonresponse, decisions around weighting and more — that’s just not easy to communicate to the lay reader. 

In a race this tight, in which survey after survey has Harris and Trump dead even in the swing states, a good pollster could do everything right, yet still miss the result.

The problems with polling are real.