Inside Trump’s gamble on untested campaigners in Arizona    We haven't been able to take paymentYou must update your payment details via My Account or by clicking update payment details to keep your subscription.Update payment detailsAct now to keep your subscriptionWe've tried to contact you several times as we haven't been able to take payment. You must update your payment details via My Account or by clicking update payment details to keep your subscription.Update payment detailsYour subscription is due to terminateWe've tried to contact you several times as we haven't been able to take payment. You must update your payment details via My Account, otherwise your subscription will terminate. Update payment detailsMore from The Times and The Sunday TimesTap 'Menu' and then 'Explore'Tap 'Menu' and then 'Explore'DismissAccessibility LinksSkip to contentSearchHomeUKWorldCommentBusiness & MoneySportLife & StyleCulturePuzzlesMagazinesLoginSubscribeLog inSubscribeHomeUKWorldCommentBusiness & MoneySportLife & StyleCulturePuzzlesMagazines DISPATCHInside Trump’s gamble on untested campaigners in ArizonaA doorstep offensive by Turning Point USA, a conservative group not officially affiliated with the Republican Party, could boost turnout — or lose moderate votesMaga supporters listen to Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point, at the University of Nevada in RenoANDRI TAMBUNAN/AFPKeiran Southern, PhoenixThursday October 24 2024, 7.30pm, The TimesThe evening sun casts a golden veil over the Phoenix suburbs after a sweltering October day and the beer garden at Fat Willy’s bar is growing crowded.A disparate crew ranging from college-age men to elderly married couples has gathered, sharing plates of chicken wings and cold lagers. The red caps worn by many of the attendees hint that this is not primarily a social occasion.Instead, the 40-odd volunteers are a crucial cog in Donald Trump’s political machine and their work across Arizona’s Maricopa County may just help return the former president to the White House.They are with Turning Point USA, a conservative group that has taken a central role in Trump’s campaign, knocking on doors across battleground states in an attempt to hoover up every available vote in an election that polls suggest is a dead heat.Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and about 60 per cent of Arizona’s population, will decide who wins the state’s all-important electoral college votes on November 5.AdvertisementThat Republicans have essentially outsourced on-the-ground campaigning to an inexperienced outside group has raised eyebrows among some in the party.Election workers open envelopes and sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election CenterOLIVIER TOURON/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGESThere are concerns that Trump is gambling on untested methods while Kamala Harris’s Democrats rely on what is widely considered a formidable get-out-the-vote operation.Strategists have suggested that Team Trump has no choice but to look to outside groups, given his significant cash disadvantage compared with Harris, with Republicans unable to use traditional methods due to a lack of funds.• Electoral college map 2024: pick your path to the White HouseTurning Point’s strategy across the battleground states involves tapping into a well of conservative voters who are prone to sitting out elections, but some doubt such tactics will work in Arizona, where the group’s hard-right politics may put off independents.Advertisement“It’s not a strategy that acknowledges the complexity of the Arizona electorate as it exists today,” Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican strategist in the state, said.He is concerned that Turning Point’s tactic of targeting thousands of Trump supporters who rarely vote could backfire in Arizona, and suggested they should instead be engaged in the hard work of convincing independents to back the Republican ticket.Young men are a key electoral block for Donald TrumpANNA MONEYMAKER/GETTY IMAGESTurning Point and its provocative founder, Charlie Kirk, beg to differ.Kirk, 31, has emerged as one of America’s most influential conservatives since founding the group in the Chicago suburbs over a decade ago.Turning Point’s mission is to “identify, educate, train and organise students to promote the principles of freedom, free markets and limited government”.AdvertisementIt has a strong presence on college campuses, with more than 800 university chapters, while Kirk regularly appears at rallies to speak to students on issues including abortion and transgender rights.Charlie Kirk is one of America’s most influential conservativesANDRI TAMBUNAN/AFPOpposition groups have criticised Kirk and Turning Point for what they deem extremist positions. Kirk led a “Stop the Steal” rally in Phoenix in November 2020 after Trump lost the election.He is, however, popular with young men, a key electoral block for Trump that has become increasingly conservative and open to right-wing ideas. It is no surprise the former president has embraced Kirk.• Who will win the 2024 US election? Polls and predictionsTrump, 78, appeared alongside Kirk at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Wednesday and on Thursday was scheduled to join him at an event in Nevada, another swing state.AdvertisementTurning Point, which has its headquarters at a business park in Phoenix, has launched a campaign to raise $108 million for a “ballot-chasing” effort across the country. At the grass roots this helps fund teams of volunteers like those at Fat Willy’s.Kirk led a “Stop the Steal” rally in Phoenix in November 2020 after Trump lost the electionYASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP/GETTY IMAGESAfter leaving the bar in the town of Mesa one evening this week, Rob and Thomas, both 49 and from Oklahoma, head into the suburbs. They believe it is here, among the detached homes of Arizona’s middle class, that the state may be won and lost.They are tasked with knocking on doors of low-propensity voters who sympathise with Trump. The addresses are provided by Turning Point’s voter mobilisation mobile app, which gives details including a resident’s name, address and phone number.The night gets off to a promising start for them when the first homeowner indicates he has already voted for Trump.• Quarter of Americans fear civil war after election, Times poll showsAdvertisementOther residents, perhaps fatigued by the relentless bombardment of political advertisements that has become part of life in battleground states in the run-up to elections, politely decline to speak.“I’m going to stop you there, gentlemen,” one man says before closing his front door. Rob, a software developer, and Thomas, who is self-employed, move on to the next address, pro-Trump pamphlets in hand.Whereas Republicans have outsourced their get-out-the-vote efforts, Democrats are sticking with what they view as tried-and-true methods.The party’s Maricopa County operation is in-house, with an army of volunteers dedicated to knocking on doors in search not only of low-propensity voting Democrats but independents and moderate Republicans.Jon Ryder, the executive director of Maricopa County Democratic Party, told The Times that his volunteers had knocked on 500,000 doors this year. Turning Point did not respond to requests for its tally.• Kamala Harris narrowly leads Donald Trump in Times pollRyder suggested Republicans had to rely on outside groups because they lacked the cash of previous election cycles.Harris’s financial advantage over Trump has been well-documented — the vice-president outspent her rival by almost $200 million in September.Such a disparity at the national level filters down to the states, according to Ryder, who said his in-house organisation has the edge over the outsourced alternative.“The Arizona Democratic Party and the Maricopa County Democratic Party have a long institutional memory,” he said, comparing them with the relatively inexperienced Turning Point. “And people can take comfort in the fact that they’re actually talking to the party and people who’ve been around for decades. They’re not dealing with an outside, private entity that’s out to make money.”• Why independent voters are turning to TrumpLocal Democrats have been hearing on the doorstep from moderate Republicans that they do not like the more extreme elements of the Republican party, according to Ryder, and they do not appreciate calls from Turning Point.“A lot of moderate Republicans feel like their party has left them,” he said. “And I think the movement to outside groups like Turning Point USA is indicative of that.”While Turning Point is bullish on its chances of helping Trump over the line in Arizona, which he narrowly lost to President Biden in 2020, old-school conservatives have their doubts.Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and about 60 per cent of Arizona’s population, will decide who wins the state’s votesGETTY IMAGESCoughlin, the longtime Republican strategist, left the party in 2017 amid Trump’s bitter falling out with John McCain. The late Arizona senator and the party’s 2008 presidential nominee remains a heroic figure to many in the state.Turning Point, according to Coughlin, has essentially cannabalised the Republican Party in Arizona.Coughlin believes Turning Point’s goal of chasing as many Republican votes as possible at the expense of those sitting on the fence is ill-advised.Winning statewide in Arizona in recent years has depended on convincing a majority of independents to back you, Coughlin notes, adding that driving up the vote from the base might not be enough.“It’s a gamble,” he said. “But it has the convenience of not having to change your narrative at all. You’re not genuflecting to a voter constituency that may not be yours.• Trump fears his voters won’t ‘get off the couch’. Can he inspire them?“My question about that given the Maga experience in Arizona since ’16 is, is that representative of the majority of the Arizona electorate? I just don’t think it is.”After an evening on the doorstep, Rob and Thomas are no closer to answering that all-important question. However, with what may be the most important election in a generation looming, both men prefer to hope that their efforts will help put Trump back in office.“I have to believe that,” Rob says with a shrug. “Or I can’t keep coming out here every day.”WorldRelated articlesIN MAPS AND CHARTSWho will win the swing states? 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Like everything with Trump it’ll be a shit show of felons and con artists.