Nate Silver Gives Up on 2024 Poll Predictions to Deliver ‘Gut’ Call

Skip to Main ContentNewslettersCrosswordSUBSCRIBEALLCSCHEAT SHEETNEWSLETTERSLOG INCheat SheetMediaObsessedRoyalsPoliticsOpinionInnovationU.S. NewsScoutedMy AccountManage NewslettersSubscription OffersNeed Help?LogOutHOMEPAGEPoliticsNate Silver Gives Up on 2024 Poll Predictions to Deliver ‘Gut’ CallNECK AND NECK“You should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” he wrote of the 2024 presidential election.Sean CraigUpdated Oct. 23 2024 2:59PM EDT / Published Oct. 23 2024 12:07PM EDT Slaven Vlasic Sean Craigsean.craig@thedailybeast.comGot a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast here.Trending NowPoliticsTrump Signs New Order to Vastly Expand His Presidential PowersYasmeen HamadehMediaCNN Host Asks Hysterical Stephen Miller to ‘Calm Down’ in Live InterviewYasmeen HamadehMediaAnti-Trump Podcast Dethrones Joe Rogan at Top of the ChartsJulia OrnedoPoliticsDOGE’s Shocking $8 Billion Dollar Mistake Called OutJosh FialloU.S. NewsJFK’s Grandson Freaks Out After Trump Order Closes Kennedy LibraryKenneal PattersonTrending NowPoliticsTrump Signs New Order to Vastly Expand His Presidential PowersYasmeen HamadehMediaCNN Host Asks Hysterical Stephen Miller to ‘Calm Down’ in Live InterviewYasmeen HamadehMediaAnti-Trump Podcast Dethrones Joe Rogan at Top of the ChartsJulia OrnedoPoliticsDOGE’s Shocking $8 Billion Dollar Mistake Called OutJosh FialloU.S. NewsJFK’s Grandson Freaks Out After Trump Order Closes Kennedy LibraryKenneal Patterson



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I feel like a lot of us here are being a bit uncharitable to him. Nate is on record saying he'll vote for Harris and he wants Trump to lose and he cites Jan 6 as one of the main reasons he think Trump shouldn't be in office ever again. 

We have to realize this guy is constantly hounded by all of the media 24/7 asking for his opinion on who will win the race. He's constantly telling them to look at his model and cites that it really is a toss-up and 50/50 time and time again, which he reiterates immediately in the oped he just wrote. The dark "gut" feeling he's talking about is probably something we collectively all have experienced or having right now with how close the polling is leading up to election day. It's not based in anything substantial and he tells you not to trust it. It's a human emotional response he's saying.