/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Threadjump to contentmy subredditsedit subscriptionspopular-all-users | AskReddit-pics-funny-movies-gaming-worldnews-news-todayilearned-nottheonion-explainlikeimfive-mildlyinteresting-DIY-videos-OldSchoolCool-TwoXChromosomes-tifu-Music-books-LifeProTips-dataisbeautiful-aww-science-space-Showerthoughts-askscience-Jokes-IAmA-Futurology-sports-UpliftingNews-food-nosleep-creepy-history-gifs-InternetIsBeautiful-GetMotivated-gadgets-announcements-WritingPrompts-philosophy-Documentaries-EarthPorn-photoshopbattles-listentothis-blogmore »reddit.com updatesdiscussionsWant to join? Log in or sign up in seconds./r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live ThreadA live thread to cover major US elections in the 2024 election year with polls, news, and results.

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Current Election Day Discussion Thread


discussions/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 644000 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6336287 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6280370 comments/r/politicsupdated by/u/Agondonter/u/CapitanDirtbag/u/DubTeeDub… and 19 more ⇒06 Nov 11:43https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1854126732955046026

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:39https://twitter.com/FoxReports/status/1854126340447911993

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:30https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854119193366450215

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:29https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1854119493829566657

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:28https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854123516322361533

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:18https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854111744278347885

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 03:35https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1854002757654528192

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:31https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1854003047556616527

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Sen. Ted Cruz wins re-election, overcoming challenge from Democrat Colin Allred

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Iowa passes voting amendment

NBC News projects Iowa has passed an amendment that requires citizenship and also lowers the voting age for primaries, allowing 17-year-olds who will be 18 years old by Election Day to participate.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:14AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins Colorado

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:02AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Missouri
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Montana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Utah

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:35AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Florida rejects abortion measure, further limiting access in the South

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Republican Mark Robinson loses North Carolina gubernatorial bid after tumultuous campaign

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:12AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Ohio

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11AP: A Decision Desk update on Texas

As polls close statewide in Texas, the AP is not yet declaring a winner in the race for president. AP’s Decision Team is waiting for election officials to report additional results of votes cast on Election Day, particularly in Democratic-leaning areas of the state.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Donald Trump wins North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Ohio

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New York.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins North Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins the statewide vote in Nebraska and two electoral votes
AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins New York
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins South Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Louisiana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Wyoming

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:00‘No credible threat’ in Pennsylvania, says Gov. Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said there had been multiple bomb threats called into polling locations across the state, but said so far there is “no credible threat” to the public.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 01:39The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Illinois.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:35The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Delaware.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New Jersey.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Donald Trump wins Arkansas.

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If you’re interested here’s some interesting facts:

2012 Obama Overperformance:
- Obama had a 0.7% lead in RCP but won by 3.9%. Which is >3% Overperformance. The bullets below are the reasons why he overperformed. 
- In 2012, African American turnout exceeded white voter turnout for the first time in history reaching 66.6% 
- Latinos made up 10% of the electorate, up from 9%. Obama won 71% of the vote. 
- Romney slipped a little with white voters getting only 59% instead of the 60-62% projected. 

2016 Trump Overperformance: 
-  Clinton had a 3.2% lead in RCP but only won the PV by 2.1% and lost the election due to really bad polling misses in battleground states. Trump overperformed in WI, MI and PA by 7.2%, 3.9% & 2.8% respectively. The bullets below explain why he overperformed 
-  For voters who voted in the last week in key midwestern swing states, 50% voted for Trump and 39% for Clinton. 
- White working class turnout was higher than predicted by polls, and Trump won this demographic by 67% to 28%. These groups accounted for 44% of the electorate in Pennsylvania for instance.  
- Polls overestimated third party support. Polls constantly had third party at 8-10% in the Midwest states but on Election Day third parties only had 5% of the vote. Many shifted to Trump on Election Day. 

2020 Trump Overperformance:
- RCP had Biden up 7.2%. Real election result was Biden +4.5%. Trump Overperformed by around 2.7%. In FL, Trump overperformed by 5.9%, in OH, 7.4%, in Iowa 6.2% and Texas, 4.6%. He also overperformed in MI, PA & WI, however Biden was able to clinch a victory there. The bullets below show how Trump was able to Overperform in 2020. 
- As in 2016, late deciding voters switched to Trump. In Florida for example, a lot of late-deciding voters swung to Trump. 
- Trump won white working class + rural voters by 64-36 margin and these groups turned out more than expected relative to college educated white voters. 
- Trump made huge gains with Latino voters especially in Florida where Trump improved his share of the vote by 22 points compared to 2016.
- Many polls also overestimated Biden’s share of white college educated voters particularly in the suburbs and the surge in turnout was not as high as expected. 

____ this section goes through scenarios for each candidate overperforming 

2024 Trump Overperformance:
- Harris +0.1% RCP. 
- Rural and working class turnout is higher than expected 
- Trump continues gains with Hispanic and Black voters 
- late-deciding voters break for Trump 

2024 Harris Overperformance:
- Harris +0.1% RCP
- Harris secures a larger than expected portion of college educated white voters particularly in areas like Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia. Especially suburban women who have shifted in recent elections. 
- higher than expected turnout and performance with black and Hispanic voters could push Harris to Overperform in the sunbelt states

Which scenario do you think is more likely and what data do you have to back it? Non-polling…