Nate Silver Gives Up on 2024 Poll Predictions to Deliver ‘Gut’ Call

Skip to Main ContentNewslettersCrosswordSUBSCRIBEALLCSCHEAT SHEETNEWSLETTERSLOG INCheat SheetMediaObsessedRoyalsPoliticsOpinionInnovationU.S. NewsScoutedMy AccountManage NewslettersSubscription OffersNeed Help?LogOutHOMEPAGEPoliticsNate Silver Gives Up on 2024 Poll Predictions to Deliver ‘Gut’ CallNECK AND NECK“You should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” he wrote of the 2024 presidential election.Sean CraigUpdated Oct. 23 2024 2:59PM EDT / Published Oct. 23 2024 12:07PM EDT Slaven Vlasic Sean Craigsean.craig@thedailybeast.comGot a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast here.Trending NowPoliticsTrump Signs New Order to Vastly Expand His Presidential PowersYasmeen HamadehMediaCNN Host Asks Hysterical Stephen Miller to ‘Calm Down’ in Live InterviewYasmeen HamadehMediaAnti-Trump Podcast Dethrones Joe Rogan at Top of the ChartsJulia OrnedoPoliticsDOGE’s Shocking $8 Billion Dollar Mistake Called OutJosh FialloU.S. NewsJFK’s Grandson Freaks Out After Trump Order Closes Kennedy LibraryKenneal PattersonTrending NowPoliticsTrump Signs New Order to Vastly Expand His Presidential PowersYasmeen HamadehMediaCNN Host Asks Hysterical Stephen Miller to ‘Calm Down’ in Live InterviewYasmeen HamadehMediaAnti-Trump Podcast Dethrones Joe Rogan at Top of the ChartsJulia OrnedoPoliticsDOGE’s Shocking $8 Billion Dollar Mistake Called OutJosh FialloU.S. NewsJFK’s Grandson Freaks Out After Trump Order Closes Kennedy LibraryKenneal Patterson



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All I could think about after reading his article was how professionally irresponsible it was.

I'm a biostatistician myself. Imagine if I walked into a meeting where I was asked to run an analysis on the kidney cancer risk of Group A vs. Group B, and my analysis showed no significant difference between the two, but then I capped it off with: "But, if it were up to my gut feeling, which is not based on data, analysis, or any documentable or repeatable reason, I would tell you that I think the risk went down." I wouldn't just be laughed out of the room; I would be fired, and justifiably so, for making such an outlandish comment.

I'm not sure if I can really properly convey just how unprofessional and irresponsible it is to do something like that. If you work with data for a living, you do what the data tells you, analyzing it to the best of your ability, and *you do not go beyond that.* Why are you even going into a data field if you're going to make conclusions you can't support with data? Why undermine the entire profession of data science by even allowing yourself to make conclusions that you can't back up with data? 

If your data tells you it's a toss-up, and you have no basis to make any more definitive of a conclusion than that, then *you leave it at that.* I shouldn't have to explain this shit to Nate fucking *Silver* of all people. Good lord.