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Current Election Day Discussion Thread


discussions/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 644000 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6336287 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6280370 comments/r/politicsupdated by/u/Agondonter/u/CapitanDirtbag/u/DubTeeDub… and 19 more ⇒06 Nov 11:43https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1854126732955046026

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:39https://twitter.com/FoxReports/status/1854126340447911993

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:30https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854119193366450215

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:29https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1854119493829566657

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:28https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854123516322361533

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:18https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854111744278347885

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 03:35https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1854002757654528192

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:31https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1854003047556616527

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Sen. Ted Cruz wins re-election, overcoming challenge from Democrat Colin Allred

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Iowa passes voting amendment

NBC News projects Iowa has passed an amendment that requires citizenship and also lowers the voting age for primaries, allowing 17-year-olds who will be 18 years old by Election Day to participate.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:14AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins Colorado

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:02AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Missouri
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Montana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Utah

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:35AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Florida rejects abortion measure, further limiting access in the South

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Republican Mark Robinson loses North Carolina gubernatorial bid after tumultuous campaign

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:12AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Ohio

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11AP: A Decision Desk update on Texas

As polls close statewide in Texas, the AP is not yet declaring a winner in the race for president. AP’s Decision Team is waiting for election officials to report additional results of votes cast on Election Day, particularly in Democratic-leaning areas of the state.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Donald Trump wins North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Ohio

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New York.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins North Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins the statewide vote in Nebraska and two electoral votes
AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins New York
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins South Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Louisiana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Wyoming

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:00‘No credible threat’ in Pennsylvania, says Gov. Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said there had been multiple bomb threats called into polling locations across the state, but said so far there is “no credible threat” to the public.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 01:39The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Illinois.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:35The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Delaware.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New Jersey.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Donald Trump wins Arkansas.

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Since people are asking about the Selzer poll, I just heard Ann Selzer analysis on a YouTube video which was released 15 hours ago.

Video - https://youtu.be/5ROAzOyo6vA?si=yPNlyFOAIuHCPrLN 

She's on from the 14:56 timestamp. 

These are the points she makes : 

1. She mentions gender gap. 15 points men breaking towards Trump. 15 points women breaking towards Harris. In some states she is seeing a much bigger divide with a bigger margin of men voting for Trump, than women voting for Harris. She tells the host that they talked about the men driving the gender gap this season and this data suggests the fact that it's even on both sides. The exit polls of 2020 showed the same dynamic, but with smaller margin (10 as opposed to 15 now). The polarization and widening of the gender gap is evident. 

2. She says the second point is really interesting and that she isn't seeing many people talk about it, which is that her polls and the hosts polls show the same thing. - In terms of age, it's the younger people who are in favor of Harris. She leads with the under 45 by 7 points. The middle age 45-64 is Trump and he's got a margin of 12 points there, but age 65 and over which people have thought for a long time, the older you get, the more conservative you get, but Harris is actually leading with that group. So we have a funny kind of curve there. She's seeing this in Iowa as well. She looked at the exit polls of 2020, and Trump won the 65 and above vote by 7 points and now Harris in the hosts polls is leading by 4. She will be very interested in more analysis by the other people in that video.

3. She's discussing Philadelphia and the suburbs vs the rest of the state. I think the thing that is interesting that 55% of the vote outside Philly is goin to Trump. It's about 2/3rd of the voters in the state, if it's the same dynamic as we saw in 2020. But in the hosts poll, Harris is getting 55 to Trumps 49 (she later corrects this to 39) in Philly. The exit poll Biden got 66, so here Harris is getting 55 and if that's where she's going to run up the vote (basically from a third of the voters in the state), she's way lower than Biden and for her that's a fire sign (worrying sign) of what's going on and where Harris is likely to be concentrating her efforts. 

The person who did the poll, interjected and said that when the polls showed Harris up only 55 as opposed to Biden, they were asking if the data was real, and are the numbers real, and they said they hoped that the numbers were real, since they were the ones polling. He said that it needs to be close to 65 for it to move Harris's way. 

4. She looked at the breakdown in terms of how people think who's better on abortion and the poll showed the narrowest of the margin was among men. They're a little more Trump, but barely. It's basically tied. It made her wonder if any messaging around abortion was tailored specifically to men by Harris. She said she doesn't know if she's seeing men being asked to base their vote on abortion and why it would be to their advantage. 

My take - 

Honestly it seems like these pollsters are seeing the gender vote cancel each other out. Maybe that's why all the polls that are coming out are so close. 

Trump is still leading 45-64 by a larger margin than Harris is leading under 45 (7 points), but Harris has a 4 point lead in the 65+. 

Will the youngER voters (who historically have low turnout rates), turn out in big numbers for her?

Older people are the one of the most reliable block. So if she's leading there, how much does it help her cancel the 12 point lead amongst the 45-64? 

I'm going to end with saying, I think the Iowa poll that comes out in the last Sunday before the election (that's what somebody on this thread said), I think Trump might be leading with a lot more than the previous 4. Anything above 8 is bad news.