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Current Election Day Discussion Thread


discussions/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 644000 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6336287 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6280370 comments/r/politicsupdated by/u/Agondonter/u/CapitanDirtbag/u/DubTeeDub… and 19 more ⇒06 Nov 11:43https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1854126732955046026

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:39https://twitter.com/FoxReports/status/1854126340447911993

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:30https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854119193366450215

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:29https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1854119493829566657

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:28https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854123516322361533

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:18https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854111744278347885

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 03:35https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1854002757654528192

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:31https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1854003047556616527

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Sen. Ted Cruz wins re-election, overcoming challenge from Democrat Colin Allred

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Iowa passes voting amendment

NBC News projects Iowa has passed an amendment that requires citizenship and also lowers the voting age for primaries, allowing 17-year-olds who will be 18 years old by Election Day to participate.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:14AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins Colorado

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:02AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Missouri
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Montana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Utah

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:35AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Florida rejects abortion measure, further limiting access in the South

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Republican Mark Robinson loses North Carolina gubernatorial bid after tumultuous campaign

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:12AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Ohio

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11AP: A Decision Desk update on Texas

As polls close statewide in Texas, the AP is not yet declaring a winner in the race for president. AP’s Decision Team is waiting for election officials to report additional results of votes cast on Election Day, particularly in Democratic-leaning areas of the state.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Donald Trump wins North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Ohio

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New York.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins North Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins the statewide vote in Nebraska and two electoral votes
AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins New York
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins South Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Louisiana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Wyoming

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:00‘No credible threat’ in Pennsylvania, says Gov. Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said there had been multiple bomb threats called into polling locations across the state, but said so far there is “no credible threat” to the public.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 01:39The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Illinois.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:35The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Delaware.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New Jersey.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Donald Trump wins Arkansas.

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A DEEP dive into the EV totals so far, for the nerds....  
From Simon Rosenberg's on Substack 10/25/24  
"OK, I am ready to start doing more granular analysis on the early vote. It has been hard to analyze the early vote this time for 1) 2020 was a COVID election, and thus not a great baseline to make comparisons 2) States have changed their voting rules, and the variance in how people vote early state to state makes comparisons a bit challenging 3) Republicans have made the early vote a priority this time (they did not in 2020 or 2022) so the early vote patterns are very different than the last two elections 4) Some of our core Democratic vote, young Dems, will be showing up in the unaffiliated column this election. 5) Wisconsin’s voter file does provide enough information this year to make apples to apples comparisons to either 2020 or 2022 6) given all this we just needed more vote to come in.

So, with all these caveats, here we go. Using [TargetEarly](https://substack.com/redirect/d91ad5b7-21d1-48a7-98d7-9d57fab3f5a3?j=eyJ1IjoiNGJpYWZvIn0.YjkN7NkPXcR7LgTvTwusflNM-99QtVqIFKSsRT-nsiM)’s modeled party feature, we now know the national early vote has been running 5-6-7 more points more Republican than 2020. We expected this, but just didn’t know how much more Republican the early vote would be. So what I am going to share now is how each of the 7 battleground states, plus NE-2, are performing against both 2020 and a new stat I’ve developed - performance against 2020 compared to the early vote nationally.

This morning the early vote is running 6.9 points more Republican than on this day in 2020. Here is what I have for 1) compared to 2020 at this time 2) performance against the national early vote. In the aggregate of the 7 battleground states we are running just 0.6 behind 2020, and 6.3 points above the national early vote. Friends this is very good. The power of the Harris-Walz campaign and the Democratic grassroots is driving the early vote, and helping us perform before above the national baseline. This is what we would have expected to see given the superiority of our campaign. This is the 7 state battleground aggregate:

Here’s how the states break down:

* Michigan - We are running 12.1 percentage points above 2020, and 19 points above the national baseline (this is really good)
* Nebraska-02 - We are running 9.1 points above 2020, and 16 points above the national baseline (this is really good)
* Wisconsin - We can’t say for sure at this point, but it is likely running at levels similar to MI and NE (I will explain this in a future post)
* Georgia - We are running 1.7 points below 2020, and 5.3 points above the national baseline (we made strong gains in GA this week)
* Arizona - We are running 5.4 points below 2020, and 1.4 points above the national baseline (we made strong gains in AZ this week)
* Pennsylvania - We are running 6.4 points below 2020, and 0.5 above the national baseline
* North Carolina - We are running 8.5 points below 2020, and 1.6 points below the national baseline (we made strong gains in NC this week)
* Nevada - We are running 11 points below 2020, and 4.1 points below the national baseline (we made strong gains in NV this week)

A few additional notes: 1) We’ve seen meaningful gains in AZ, GA, NC, NE-02 and NV this week. You can see the power of our campaigns/grassroots kicking in. 2) We don’t know how many Rs are voting for us in any of these states, though it is likely it will be more than 2020 3) It is also likely that the unaffiliated vote is more D than last time. This means the actual vote so far is slightly more Dem than these numbers suggest, something we are seeing in polling of those who have voted so far.

To sum up - in the battlegrounds we are running at 2020 levels and overperforming the national baseline. Over the past few days the vote has gotten bluer for us in the battlegrounds, as we would have expected given our campaign superiority. It is likely that the current vote is a bit more Democratic than the raw D/R/U split, which means all this is actually a little bit better than the raw data. Taken together it is now very likely that Democrats are outperforming 2020 in the battlegrounds despite the national early vote being 7 points more Republican this year; and these early vote “leads” Rs have been crowing about are evaporating. It appears they got an early boost in some of these states, something they have been unable to maintain, as our campaign superiority and all of you keep making the early vote bluer.

Finally, I think we should feel good about where we are right now. We have a modest lead in the national and battleground state polls. The early vote is good and is getting better. Our more muscular and energetic campaign has a far greater capacity to keep moving that vote towards us in these final days. And perhaps most importantly, I think how this election is closing - with a focus on Trump’s fitness. madness, extremism, misogny and fealty to Putin - is how we want this election to be closing. For fear and opposition to MAGA has been the most powerful force in our politics since 2018, and is now likely to be the most powerful force in this election too.