































Gerrymandering in 2024: How "deeply steered" districts benefit Republicans | Salon.com


























































































News & PoliticsCultureFoodScience & HealthMoneyLife StoriesVideoReviewsLifestyleThe New Sober BoomGetting Hooked on QuittingEducationLiberal Arts Cuts Are DangerousIs College Necessary?FinanceDying Parents Costing Millennials DearGen Z Investing In Le CreusetCryptoInvestingSEC vs Celebrity Crypto Promoters'Dark' Personalities Drawn to BTC 
Profile




                                Log In/Sign Up
                            


Sticky Header



Night Mode

Saved Articles
Go Ad-Free
Logout
































subscribe
Help keep Salon independent


Newsletter



























Profile




                                Login/Sign Up
                            


Sticky Header



Night Mode

Saved Articles
Go Ad-Free
Logout










News & Politics
Culture
Food





Science & Health
Money
Video









































Gerrymandering in 2024: How "deeply steered" districts benefit Republicans
Independent redistricting processes in New York and California have given Republicans an advantage in the House





By 
Russell Payne

Staff Reporter




 Published October 19, 2024 6:00AM (EDT) 








							Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis arrives to speak during a press conference regarding an apparent assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump on September 17, 2024 in West Palm Beach, Florida.															(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)







--
Shares




Facebook







Twitter







Reddit







Email



















In 1999, there were 164 House districts where election results were within five points of the national popular vote. Today there are only 82. One major factor in the elimination of competitive swing districts is gerrymandering, which could have a decisive impact on which party controls the House of Representatives in 2025.
The Cook Political Report defines swing districts as those in which the election results are within five points of the nation's overall vote. For example, if the national vote is 50% for Republicans and 50% for Democrats, a swing seat would be any seat where the district voted within five points of the national vote in favor of either party. Over the past 25 years, however, the number of competitive districts has been cut in half. Beyond just the shrinking number of total competitive seats, many of the competitive seats are located in just two states: New York and California. 
According to Jonathan Cervas, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University and redistricting consultant, redistricting — when states redraw their congressional districts every ten years — is a key part of the decline in competitive House races and has been for decades. Because voters are “not very persuadable,” redistricting has become a “primary method” by which parties can gain or lose seats in Congress, he explained. Since the 2010s partisan redistricting, or gerrymandering, has resulted in relatively few competitive House races.
“It’s much easier for a political party to change district lines to enhance their ability to win than it is to change voters minds,” Cervas said.


Related
Battleground state? California could be key to control of U.S. House


Following the 2010 Census, Republicans made a concerted effort to win control of state legislatures, the body that draws district lines in most states. Winning control of those bodies gave the GOP the power to draw more district lines and allowed the party to enact partisan gerrymanders in states like Texas and Utah. In the 2020s, Democrats caught up to Republicans and sought to enact partisan maps in states like New York and Illinois. 
The problem, for Democrats, is that two states where they likely had the best opportunity to pick up seats via redistricting, New York and California, have laws preventing them from doing so.
In both New York and California, redistricting is handled by an independent redistricting commission. Although lawmakers in New York attempted to circumnavigate the commission to push through a map that benefited Democrats, courts ultimately struck down the gerrymander and the state adopted maps very similar to those drawn by Cervas himself, who was appointed to draw neutral maps for the state.
This is how the parties ended up with the current situation: few competitive districts with many of them concentrated in just two states, New York and California. While most good government advocates would say that eliminating gerrymandering is a positive development in these states, it could disadvantage Democrats because Republican-led states did not eliminate gerrymandering.


We need your help to stay independent
Subscribe today to support Salon's progressive journalism


A Brennan Center Analysis of the post-2020 Census redistricting found that because of lopsided gerrymandering, Republicans enjoy an advantage of around 16 House seats due to redistricting alone.  
“In terms of gerrymandering it’s sort of a tale of two countries," Michael Li, senior counsel for democracy at the Brennan Center, told Salon.
“There are places where maps are fair and have gotten better and there are places where maps are deeply steered,” Li said. “If you watch the news almost everything is about these seven battleground states, but in terms of toss-up districts only a third of them are in toss-up states.”
Many of the Republicans' post-2020 gains via redistricting came from Texas and Florida. According to Li, Republicans will likely gain five seats in both Texas and Florida as well as two seats in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa. They will also likely gain a single seat in a handful of states around the country. Democrats, on the other hand, will likely pick up two seats in New Jersey and three seats in Illinois because of redistricting, as well as a seat in Oregon and in New Mexico. 
Li explained that part of this has to do with different philosophies of district drawing between the parties as well. To gain seats, a party wants to win each seat with as few votes as possible to protect the seat over the ten-year lifespan of a district map a party will want a safer margin.
“When you gerrymander you have to choose between having safe districts and more districts,” Li said. “Democrats are working to make sure that their districts are safe.”

Want a daily wrap-up of all the news and commentary Salon has to offer? Subscribe to our morning newsletter, Crash Course.

The set of maps this year also differs from the maps used in 2022, with five states adopting new maps in the two years since. Alabama and Louisiana were ordered by a court to adopt new maps that included a new majority Black district in each state after their previous maps were found to have violated the Voting Rights Act.
Georgia was also required to adopt new maps under the Voting Rights Act, though they offset the new majority Black district they were required to include — and which will likely elect a Democrat — by diluting a different Democratic-leaning district. 
North Carolina also adopted new maps after the newly elected Republican-controlled state Supreme Court decided to reverse the court’s 2022 ruling against partisan gerrymandering. The decision gives Republicans the edge in ten of the state’s 14 districts. 
New York is the final state to adopt a new map, though the new maps don’t give one party or another a distinct advantage in the districts. According to Cervas, the changes since 2022 slightly benefit Republicans but don’t radically change the overall partisan advantage Republicans received from redistricting.


Read more
about the 2024 elections


“She has an easier path to 270”: Experts disagree on who has the “advantage” 30 days before election
Can New York Democrats deliver in 2024? Inside the plan to "reach more voters than ever before"
“We’ve seen this with the Federalist Society”: Turning Point’s effort to “infiltrate state capitols”










By Russell Payne





Russell Payne is a staff reporter for Salon. His reporting has previously appeared in The New York Sun and the Finger Lakes Times.
MORE FROM Russell Payne









Related Topics   ------------------------------------------
2024
Congress
Elections
House Of Representatives



Related Articles
 

 






Advertisement:

















Home
About
Staff
Contact
Privacy
Terms of Service
Archive
Go Ad Free


Copyright © 2025 Salon.com, LLC. Reproduction of material from any Salon pages without written permission is strictly prohibited. SALON ® is registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office as a trademark of Salon.com, LLC. Associated Press articles: Copyright © 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


DMCA Policy






















I'm in new Mexico and looking at the opposite. The Democrats control this state and they  Gerrymandered the Senate to heck and back. Gerrymandering is just wrong no matter what side does it. 