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Current Election Day Discussion Thread


discussions/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 644000 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6336287 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6280370 comments/r/politicsupdated by/u/Agondonter/u/CapitanDirtbag/u/DubTeeDub… and 19 more ⇒06 Nov 11:43https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1854126732955046026

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:39https://twitter.com/FoxReports/status/1854126340447911993

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:30https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854119193366450215

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:29https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1854119493829566657

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:28https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854123516322361533

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:18https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854111744278347885

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 03:35https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1854002757654528192

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:31https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1854003047556616527

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Sen. Ted Cruz wins re-election, overcoming challenge from Democrat Colin Allred

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Iowa passes voting amendment

NBC News projects Iowa has passed an amendment that requires citizenship and also lowers the voting age for primaries, allowing 17-year-olds who will be 18 years old by Election Day to participate.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:14AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins Colorado

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:02AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Missouri
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Montana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Utah

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:35AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Florida rejects abortion measure, further limiting access in the South

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Republican Mark Robinson loses North Carolina gubernatorial bid after tumultuous campaign

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:12AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Ohio

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11AP: A Decision Desk update on Texas

As polls close statewide in Texas, the AP is not yet declaring a winner in the race for president. AP’s Decision Team is waiting for election officials to report additional results of votes cast on Election Day, particularly in Democratic-leaning areas of the state.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Donald Trump wins North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Ohio

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New York.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins North Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins the statewide vote in Nebraska and two electoral votes
AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins New York
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins South Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Louisiana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Wyoming

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:00‘No credible threat’ in Pennsylvania, says Gov. Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said there had been multiple bomb threats called into polling locations across the state, but said so far there is “no credible threat” to the public.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 01:39The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Illinois.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:35The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Delaware.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New Jersey.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Donald Trump wins Arkansas.

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Anyone else think the margin of error in the current polling is just too fucked up?  I am not sure the margin of error on each individual poll but a pretty good margin of error would be like +-3 right?  A lot of polls will have a higher MOE than this but lets be conservative for the sake of my point and say all polls are +-3 and look at PA:

[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/)

Lets say Harris's true support is 48.  We would expect to see results like below  
51  
45  
48  
50  
46  
51 etc.

We'd expect to routinely see the number fluctuate in that range.  However if you look at the PA polls recently they look like this:

49  
48  
49  
50  
49  
50  
48

  
Now if you go back a bit further you do see some lower ranges for Harris but these are pretty rare and seemingly only showing up with R leaning pollsters

We don't know Harris's actual support is in PA of course but am I crazy to think that these polls should be showing way more variance regardless of what her true support is?  

We're even seeing completely different pollsters, probably with different MOEs having the exact same result in a short window of time.  In particular Morning Consult and Bullfinch group had the exact same 49/48 split within a week of each other

Same with 2020 for Biden: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/)

His margin fluctuated a bit but his vote share of all the final polls was consistently either 50, 51, or 52 (i do see one for 49.  Biden ended with just over 50% of the vote so why didn't we see a greater range of results including Biden at 53 or Biden at 47.

This isn't scientific, but it really does seem like poll herding in both elections.  And again this is assuming all these polls had an MOE of +- 3.  Certainly some of them were an MOE of 4 or 5, or even 6.