Trump fears his voters won’t ‘get off the couch’. Can he inspire them?    We haven't been able to take paymentYou must update your payment details via My Account or by clicking update payment details to keep your subscription.Update payment detailsAct now to keep your subscriptionWe've tried to contact you several times as we haven't been able to take payment. You must update your payment details via My Account or by clicking update payment details to keep your subscription.Update payment detailsYour subscription is due to terminateWe've tried to contact you several times as we haven't been able to take payment. You must update your payment details via My Account, otherwise your subscription will terminate. Update payment detailsMore from The Times and The Sunday TimesTap 'Menu' and then 'Explore'Tap 'Menu' and then 'Explore'DismissAccessibility LinksSkip to contentSearchHomeUKWorldCommentBusiness & MoneySportLife & StyleCulturePuzzlesMagazinesLoginSubscribeLog inSubscribeHomeUKWorldCommentBusiness & MoneySportLife & StyleCulturePuzzlesMagazines Video IconLOUISE CALLAGHAN IN AMERICATrump fears his voters won’t ‘get off the couch’. Can he inspire them?As endgame approaches he needs to mobilise every demographic of backer, even the ones he just called ‘fat pigs’. They’re more diverse than you might thinkLouise Callaghan | Charts by Dan AthertonSaturday October 19 2024, 6.00pm, The Sunday TimesILLUSTRATION BY RUSSEL HERNEMANLouise Callaghan | Charts by Dan AthertonSaturday October 19 2024, 6.00pm, The Sunday TimesTwo weeks out from the US election and the candidates are scrapping for every last vote. While national polls show a very slight lead for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, the race in the key swing states is too close to call.This weekend both candidates were staging get-out-the-vote events in battleground states as voters across the country take advantage of early voting — either in person or by post. Having previously disdained early voting as a potential target of fraud, the Trump team has now identified its value: last week, the swing state of Georgia reported record turnout in the first two days of early voting, which has historically favoured the Democrats.On Friday, Trump exhorted women to get their “fat pig” husbands “off the couch” to vote:He is trying to cajole a broad alliance of voters that includes diehard fans, Reaganite Republicans, blue-collar voters drawn by his anti-elite credentials, and those who miss the Trump-era economy.But who exactly votes for Trump? Well, half the country. In the last presidential election, Biden won 81,283,501 votes and Trump won 74,223,975.Data from 2020, based on a sample of validated voters from the Pew Research Centre, shows that Trump was most popular among white men without university degrees: 65 per cent of them voted for him. But that fact obscures his other supporters: 53 per cent of white women voted for Trump, 38 per cent of Hispanics. A third of voters with postgraduate degrees, and 42 per cent of those with a university degree. And in rural areas, he won 65 per cent of the vote — yet also 43 per cent of the suburbs.AdvertisementThat coalition, said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and founder of North Star Opinion Research, has experienced small shifts since 2020.“The main thing that has changed is that he appears to be doing better among lower income minorities, particularly black and Hispanic men nationally, because the memory of a Trump-era economy is better than the Biden economy,” he said.Kamala Harris is also campaigning for early votes in MichiganJACQUELYN MARTIN/APPolls for 2024 show that Trump is ahead among his core demographic of supporters, but also that he is gaining ground with groups including Hispanic men, while losing support among white women.Last week, Harris’s team was spooked by polls showing that Trump is increasing his support among black men.A Trump supporter at his rally this month in Reading, PennsylvaniaMATT SLOCUM/APTrump’s supporters are men, women, old, young, rich, poor, urban and rural. So who are they? And what motivates them? Here are the key pillars of Trump’s coalition.AdvertisementCore RepublicansAs the person at the head of the Republican ticket, Trump is guaranteed to take most — though not all — of the party’s core voters.Ayres, the Republican pollster, divides Republican voters roughly into three groups: the Never Trumpers, who refuse to back him, now make up only around 10-12 per cent of Republicans. The Always Trumpers, who are about 35-40 per cent of the party, who “think he’s the saviour of America”. And the remainder, about 40-45 per cent, are Maybe Trumpers.“They like his policies but really don’t like his personality,” said Ayres. “They think his policies would be better for them than Kamala Harris’s policies and so they are going to sort of hold their nose and vote for him despite their misgivings.”Daniel Gressel, 70, a retired hedge fund manager from Miami, Florida, said he considered himself a free trader and part of the intellectual right.Daniel GresselHe dislikes Harris and President Biden and for what he considers their failure to back Israel strongly enough, their embrace of identity politics and weakness on the border. “The policy differential overwhelms my dislike for his [Trump’s] personal behaviour,” he said.AdvertisementMike Clark, 74, a retired insurance agent from Michigan, when asked why he was voting Trump, replied: “He’s not Kamala.”He elaborated: “If Trump wins, the Republicans in general will do well, but the Democrats — I have no faith in where they want to take us.” He supports Trump’s tax-cutting policies and thinks that Harris would be unable to “balance the budget”.“I don’t have any illusions about Trump being an angel,” he said. “But he’s not a Democrat. I think he has some good ideas.”• What happens if there’s an electoral college tie? US election explainedThe anti-eliteROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/GETTY IMAGESFor some, Trump’s appeal lies in his maverick status; his challenge to the orthodoxy.AdvertisementBrian Pannebecker from Macomb County, Michigan, is all in for Trump. The 65-year-old, now retired after 36 years in the car industry, believes that the 2020 election was stolen, that “wokeness” has gone too far and that the southern border with Mexico should be closed. Trump, in his view, is on the side of the working man.“He was not beholden to the deep state or the bureaucratic Washington DC establishment. He was an outsider, and I felt that he really represented the working class,” he said, adding: “Donald Trump doesn’t need to enrich himself. He’s already a billionaire, so he was fighting for the common man and woman, as ironic as that may seem, being a billionaire, but he did.”These sentiments are shared by Marty Byrd, a 74-year-old retired recruitment consultant from Shiner, Texas, who has supported Trump since 2016.Marty Byrd at Eagle Pass, TexasMARK FELIX FOR  THE SUNDAY TIMESShe saw then, she said, that he wasn’t a regular politician, but a businessman. She didn’t mind his brashness or his personal “baggage”. “We felt that he spoke to us, saying what he was going to do,” she said.They are part of a growing anti-elite backlash in America, which Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican political consultant, said was related to the Democrats’ embrace of identity politics. “If Democrats align their politics on identity, then they shouldn’t be surprised”, when the white working class forms an identity group too, he said.AdvertisementThis also rings true for a class of young men, many of whom work in tech or related industries, who tend to be libertarian on social issues, despise identity politics, and hail the likes of Elon Musk, the entrepreneur who is now a major backer of Trump.To this group of young men, Trump represents a grenade thrown into the status quo, a challenge to the po-faced universe of DEI — diversity, equity and inclusion — hires and pronouns that the Democrats represent.Tyler Lundstrom, a 28-year-old property agent in Honolulu, Hawaii, likes Trump’s disruptive character, even though he doesn’t really support any of his policies. Still, this November he’s going to vote for him for the first time.Tyler Lundstrom, 28“My kind of support started off as just, you know, thinking he was funny, honestly,” he said. “I liked the injection of a different style of person, not the typical president that we’ve had.”• Electoral college map 2024: pick your path to the White HouseThe religious voteTrump retains significant support among evangelical Christians, despite his colourful personal life, his conviction for sexual assault and his chaotic relationship with organised religion.In 2020, 69 per cent of white evangelical Protestants, a significant but shrinking part of the electorate (due both to demographic change and a rising number of people leaving the church) backed him in the polls, according to validated voter samples by Pew Research Centre. According to exit polls by Edison Research, 47 per cent of Catholics of all backgrounds voted for him in 2020, and 52 per cent for Biden.Many of them support anti-abortion policies; they have not forgotten that when Trump was in power he appointed conservative judges to the Supreme Court who subsequently ended the federal right to abortion (even though Trump himself has vacillated on the topic of abortion, and his wife Melania recently defended abortion rights).Roberto Albino, 37, a father of four and an evangelical Christian, who is a leader at the Pennsylvania Family Institute where he works to engage the Hispanic evangelical community, says he backs pro-life legislation, though he does not class himself as a single-issue abortion voter.In 2016, he voted for Trump because he believed that Hillary Clinton was “way, way too radical”. During Trump’s term in office, he began liking him more, partly because he saw his own economic situation improving, and partly because he saw how much hatred Trump inspired in Washington.“Just the lengths that they would go to to create false narratives to try to bring him down,” he said. “And now that’s come out even more for me the second time around.”Roberto Albino, 37The cost-of-living voteCasa Del Mofongo in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, serves the best Dominican food in town. But it has been crippled by rising costs of food (particularly eggs and chicken) and rent since the pandemic, and now Mayra, one of its owners, is switching her vote to Trump — even though she’s not a fan.• How Trump’s pollster handles him“I’ve been a Democrat, I’ve voted Democrat, but I guess I’m not one any more,” she said, adding: “When Trump was president there was more money on the street. I mean, when he talks he’s not so good, but he’s a businessman and he’s very good with money.”Across the country, there are millions of voters who polls say are leaning towards Trump because of the economy. To them, it doesn’t matter that inflation is now falling. What they remember is that four years ago, a box of eggs cost half of what it does today, and that their rent has gone up.That gut feeling may be the difference that helps Trump across the finish line.WorldRelated articlesVideo IconMIKE MURPHY | ANALYSISThe Democrats have stalled. To win, Harris needs to come out fightingOctober 17 2024, 12.45pmMike MurphyVideo IconUS ELECTION DISPATCHWhy is Trump targeting the Amish vote in Pennsylvania?October 16 2024, 12.00pmTom Newton Dunn, PennsylvaniaPROMOTED CONTENTBack to topGet in touchAbout usContact usHelpThe Times Editorial ComplaintsThe Sunday Times Editorial ComplaintsPlace an announcementClassified advertisingDisplay advertisingThe Times correctionsThe Sunday Times correctionsCareersMore from The Times and The Sunday TimesThe Times e-paperThe Sunday Times e-paperThe Sunday Times Wine ClubTimes Print GalleryThe Times ArchiveTimes Crossword ClubSunday Times DrivingTimes+The Sunday Times Rich ListTravelGood University GuideSchools GuideNewslettersBest Places to LiveBest Places to StayTimes AppointmentsPodcastsTimes Money MentorTimes LuxurySportswomen of the Year AwardsBest Places to WorkPuzzlesMore from News CorpThe AustralianBarron'sDow JonesFinancial News LondonInvestor's Business DailyMansion GlobalMarketWatchRealtor.comThe SunTimes Literary SupplementThe Wall Street Journal© Times Media Limited 2025.Registered in England No. 894646. 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He can try to frighten them. Fear is what conservatives are about