/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Threadjump to contentmy subredditsedit subscriptionspopular-all-users | AskReddit-pics-funny-movies-gaming-worldnews-news-todayilearned-nottheonion-explainlikeimfive-mildlyinteresting-DIY-videos-OldSchoolCool-TwoXChromosomes-tifu-Music-books-LifeProTips-dataisbeautiful-aww-science-space-Showerthoughts-askscience-Jokes-IAmA-Futurology-sports-UpliftingNews-food-nosleep-creepy-history-gifs-InternetIsBeautiful-GetMotivated-gadgets-announcements-WritingPrompts-philosophy-Documentaries-EarthPorn-photoshopbattles-listentothis-blogmore »reddit.com updatesdiscussionsWant to join? Log in or sign up in seconds./r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live ThreadA live thread to cover major US elections in the 2024 election year with polls, news, and results.

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Current Election Day Discussion Thread


discussions/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 644000 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6336287 comments/r/politics/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 6280370 comments/r/politicsupdated by/u/Agondonter/u/CapitanDirtbag/u/DubTeeDub… and 19 more ⇒06 Nov 11:43https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1854126732955046026

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:39https://twitter.com/FoxReports/status/1854126340447911993

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:30https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854119193366450215

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:29https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1854119493829566657

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:28https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1854123516322361533

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 11:18https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854111744278347885

/u/wil_daven_06 Nov 03:35https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1854002757654528192

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:31https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1854003047556616527

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Sen. Ted Cruz wins re-election, overcoming challenge from Democrat Colin Allred

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:29NBC: Iowa passes voting amendment

NBC News projects Iowa has passed an amendment that requires citizenship and also lowers the voting age for primaries, allowing 17-year-olds who will be 18 years old by Election Day to participate.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:14AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins Colorado

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 03:02AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Missouri
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Montana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Utah

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:35AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Florida rejects abortion measure, further limiting access in the South

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:34AP: Republican Mark Robinson loses North Carolina gubernatorial bid after tumultuous campaign

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:12AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Ohio

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11AP: A Decision Desk update on Texas

As polls close statewide in Texas, the AP is not yet declaring a winner in the race for president. AP’s Decision Team is waiting for election officials to report additional results of votes cast on Election Day, particularly in Democratic-leaning areas of the state.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Donald Trump wins North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Ohio

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New York.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 02:11AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins North Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins the statewide vote in Nebraska and two electoral votes
AP Race Call: Kamala Harris wins New York
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins South Dakota
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Louisiana
AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Wyoming

/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 02:00‘No credible threat’ in Pennsylvania, says Gov. Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said there had been multiple bomb threats called into polling locations across the state, but said so far there is “no credible threat” to the public.


/u/SpaceElevatorMusic06 Nov 01:39The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Illinois.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:35The AP reports Kamala Harris wins Delaware.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Kamala Harris wins New Jersey.

/u/Ganon_Cubana06 Nov 01:32The AP reports Donald Trump wins Arkansas.

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Simon R. just released a report analyzing the current polling market and confirming that the R effort to tilt the polls in Trump's favor is even more aggressive than it was in 2022. This time, they're using a larger number of polls with smaller R-leans (twice as many polls, but say, a 3 lead for Trump rather than a 6 point lead) to tilt the average bit-by-bit, knowing poll aggregators will weigh them less, but then still flooding the market with even higher numbers to imbalance the average anyway. They've been doing this since late August, and the peak has reached a new height. **In Pennsylvania, for example, there have been 27 Presidential level polls, and 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority.**

Simon was the one who most correctly predicted the red wave would not manifest in 2022 by identifying this exact phenomena, and it was true that in many races, the Rs either unexpectedly lost, or only won by smaller than expected margins.

This should not surprise anyone, and it doesn't account for other problems like polling less reachable demographics either.

In short, the state of the race in the aggregators is simply not likely to reflect reality. I'm not even saying Trump couldn't still win, but if he did somehow win? It will be because of factors the polls have not detected, rather than the false strength they are currently trying to show. There's been too much distortion and junk data. In typical far right-fascist fashion, weatherization of information and distorting the sciences and democracy deliberately are a key strategy, with an end goal of boosting their own strength and image. **When you consider who the far right has become in the past 10 years, who their foreign allies and sponsors are, is this really all that surprising to anyone!?**

Focus on actual hard data that's less easy to manipulate, and make a voting plan and outreach plan these last few weeks. Worrying about aggregators is nothing more than a distraction meant to influence your emotions and cloud your judgement. Stop visiting 538. Especially stop visiting the 538 reddit. Focus instead on what you can do to vote yourself, or help with turnout. Period.

Look up the article. I'd link to it but automod seems to block the site for some silly reason.