Harris vs. Trump latest polls: Sweep of all 7 swing states by this candidate is most likely - nj.com

Skip to ArticleSet weatherBack To Main MenuCloseQuick Look-Change your current location »Current -Mostly SunnyTonightLow -Mostly SunnyTomorrowHigh -Mostly SunnyView full weather reportAll Access + the daily online newspaper – Start today for $1PoliticsHarris vs. Trump latest polls: Sweep of all 7 swing states by this candidate is most likelyUpdated: Oct. 01, 2024, 10:07 p.m.|Published: Oct. 01, 2024, 10:13 a.m.Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris addresses the Economic Club of Pittsburgh on the Carnegie Mellon University campus in Pittsburgh, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)APBy Lauren Sforza | NJ Advance Media for NJ.comCan one candidate sweep all seven swing states? A new forecast prediction says it is likely.Forecaster Nate Silver’s latest model shows that Vice President Harris is more likely to win all seven swing states than former President Trump. His forecast model found that there are 128 possible combinations of who will win the seven swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.The most likely combination — Harris winning all seven swing states — came up 15,273 times in the 70,000 simulations that Silver ran in his model on Sunday morning. The second most likely scenario — Trump winning all seven swing states — came up 13,912 times.He said that “there’s about a 40 percent chance” that either Harris or Trump will win all seven swing states.Silver said that as of Sunday morning, Harris had a 56 percent chance of winning the Electoral College while Trump had a 44 percent chance of winning.“I’ll grant you that a 56/44 forecast is in kind of a weird, uncomfortable zone. To be clear, the forecast is that Harris will win the Electoral College 56 percent of the time — not that she’ll beat Trump by 12 points — in other words that the race is basically a toss-up. There is a strong likelihood that this will be a close election right up through Election Day,” Silver wrote in Sunday’s blog post.In Monday’s blog post, Silver’s forecast showed Harris with a 55.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College while Trump had a 44.7 percent chance.Recent presidential polls still show a tight race between Harris and Trump about one month before the election. RealClearPolitics’ national polling average shows Harris with nearly a 2-point lead over the former president.A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Harris narrowly leading Trump in the swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. She is tied with Trump in the battleground state of Georgia, according to the poll.Stories by Lauren SforzaTrump’s favorite pollster trolls him with a loaded questionVoters elected Trump to fix the economy: New polling reveals what they thinkPoll: Most Americans believe Musk, Trump are scamming themOur journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to NJ.com.If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.Footer NavigationAbout UsAbout NJ.comAdvertise with usContact UsNewslettersJobs at NJ Advance MediaAccessibility StatementSubscriptionsNJ.comThe Star-LedgerThe Times of TrentonSouth Jersey TimesThe Jersey JournalNewslettersAlready a SubscriberManage your SubscriptionPlace a Vacation HoldMake a PaymentDelivery FeedbackNJ.com SectionsN.J. NewsLocal NewsN.J. PoliticsSportsHigh School SportsEntertainmentFood & RecipesEventsBusinessOpinionJersey's BestLegal NoticesObituariesJobsAutosReal EstateRentalsClassifiedsSpecial SectionsLocal LifeContribute to NJ.comSubmit an eventFollow UsYouTubeFacebookRSSTwitterInstagramMore on NJ.comPlace an adSell your carPost a jobSell/rent your homeApartments & rentalsWeatherSite mapSponsor ContentSearchNJ.com StoreArchivesNewspaper stories and photosLearn more about our newspapersThe Star-LedgerThe Times of TrentonThe Jersey JournalSouth Jersey TimesHunterdon County DemocratMobileiPhone, Android appsYour Privacy ChoicesPrivacy Policy|User Agreement|Ad ChoicesDisclaimerUse of and/or registration on any portion of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement, (updated 8/1/2024) and acknowledgement of our Privacy Policy,  and Your Privacy Choices and Rights  (updated 1/1/2025).© 2025 Advance Local Media LLC. All rights reserved (About Us). The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of Advance Local.Community Rules apply to all content you upload or otherwise submit to this site.YouTube's privacy policy is available here and YouTube's terms of service is available here.Ad Choices
Polls are polls and we will see what the results are quite soon. However, it seems currently more likely that Harris is going to win. Donald Trump will never except a loosing result. There are two possible outcomes if he looses to Harris.  Either he will be on a plane to who knows where the moment he has understood that he will loose. Or he will organize another coup attempt. I wonder if the US Government is preparing for both of those options? I have my money on the first one and it is going to be hilarious :D