
































Who Will Care for Americans Left Behind by Climate Migration? — ProPublica



































Skip to content  Menu Menu  ProPublica  Donate   ProPublica Investigative Journalism in the Public Interest  Menu Menu  Search Search    Donate   Nonprofit Explorer Local Initiatives Newsletters About Us   Mail Email Address:   Arrow Right Sign Up           Menu Menu  ProPublica  Donate   Close Close  ProPublica  Donate   Search ProPublica:  Search Search  Topics  Racial Justice  Racial Justice Healthcare  Health Care Politics  Politics Criminal Justice  Criminal Justice  more…  Browse by Place   Midwest  Northwest  South  Southwest  Texas  Type   Graphics & Data  Newsletters  Series  Videos    Local Reporting Network  Electionland  Data Store  Info   About Us  Impact  Jobs & Fellowships  Contact Us   Follow ProPublica  Bluesky Bluesky   Instagram Instagram   Facebook Facebook   X (Twitter)   YouTube YouTube   Threads Threads   LinkedIn LinkedIn   RSS RSS    








Damage in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, after Hurricane Helene made landfall

Credit: 
        Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images
    




Environment

        Who Will Care for Americans Left Behind by Climate Migration?
    
        As people move away from flooding and heat, new research suggests that those who remain will be older, poorer and more vulnerable.
    
 



        by Abrahm Lustgarten 

Oct. 2, 2024, 5:05 a.m. EDT



  Share  


 Contrast  Change Appearance  Change Appearance AutoLightDark 

Republish


                Co-published with
                        The New York Times 








Series: 
The Great Climate Migration:
A Warming Planet and a Shifting Population



        More in this series
        

Caret







ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.


This article is a partnership between ProPublica and The New York Times.


When Hurricane Helene, the 420-mile-wide, slow-spinning conveyor belt of wind and water, drowned part of Florida’s coastline and then barged its path northward through North Carolina last week, it destroyed more than homes and bridges. It shook people’s faith in the safety of living in the South, where the tolls of extreme heat, storms and sea level rise are quickly adding up.
Helene was just the latest in a new generation of storms that are intensifying faster, and dumping more rainfall, as the climate warms. It is also precisely the kind of event that is expected to drive more Americans to relocate as climate change gets worse and the costs of disaster recovery increase.
Researchers now estimate tens of millions of Americans may ultimately move away from extreme heat and drought, storms and wildfires. While many Americans are still moving into areas considered high risk, lured by air conditioning and sunny weather, the economic and physical vulnerabilities they face are becoming more apparent.
One study by the First Street Foundation, a research firm that studies climate threats to housing, found that roughly 3.2 million Americans have already migrated, many over short distances, out of flood zones, such as low-lying parts of Staten Island, Miami and Galveston, Texas. Over the next 30 years, 7.5 million more are projected to leave those perennially flooded zones, according to the study.
All of this suggests a possible boom for inland and Northern cities. But it also will leave behind large swaths of coastal and other vulnerable land where seniors and the poor are very likely to disproportionately remain.



The Southern United States stands to be especially transformed. Extreme heat, storms and coastal flooding will weigh heavily on the bottom third of this country, making the environment less comfortable and life within it more expensive and less prosperous.
The young, mobile and middle class will be more likely to leave to chase opportunity and physical and economic safety. That means government — from local to federal — must now recognize its responsibility to support the communities in climate migration’s wake. Even as an aging population left behind will require greater services, medical attention and physical accommodation, the residents who remain will reside in states that may also face diminished representation in Congress — because their communities are shrinking. Local governments could be left to fend alone, but with an evaporating tax base to work with.
In December, the First Street Foundation created one of the first clear pictures of how this demographic change is unfolding. It looked at flood risk and migration patterns down to the census tract, across the country, and identified hundreds of thousands of so-called abandonment zones where the out-migration of residents in response to rising risk had already passed a tipping point, and people were making small, local moves to higher ground.
The research contains plenty of nuance ⎯ cities like Miami may continue to grow overall even as their low-lying sections hollow out. And the abandonment areas it identified were scattered widely, including across large parts of the inland Northeast and the upper Midwest. But many of them also fall in some of the very places most susceptible to storm surges from weather events like Helene: Parts of low-lying coastal Florida and Texas are already seeing population declines, for instance.
In all, the First Street report identified 818,000 U.S. census blocks as having passed tipping points for abandonment ⎯ areas with a combined population of more than 16 million people. A related peer-reviewed component of the organization’s research forecasts that soon, whole counties across Florida and Central Texas could begin to see their total populations decline, suggesting a sharp reversal of the persistent growth that Florida has maintained as climate pressures rise, by the middle of this century.
Such projections could turn out to be wrong ⎯ the more geographically specific such modeling gets, the greater its margin of error. But the mere fact that climate research firms are now identifying American communities that people might have to retreat from is significant. Retreat has not until recently been a part of this country’s climate change vernacular.



Other research is putting a finer point on which Americans will be most affected. Early this year Mathew Hauer, a demographer at Florida State University who has estimated that 13 million Americans will be displaced by rising sea levels, was among the authors of a study that broke out what this climate-driven migration could mean for the demographics of the United States, examining what it might look like by age.
Hauer and his fellow researchers found that as some people migrate away from vulnerable regions, the population that remains grows significantly older. In coastal Florida and along other parts of the Gulf Coast, for example, the median age could increase by 10 years this century — far faster than it would without climate migration.
This aging means that older adults — particularly women, who tend to live longer — are very likely to face the greatest physical danger. In fact, there is notable overlap between the places that Hauer’s research suggests will age and the places that the First Street Foundation has identified as the zones people are abandoning.



ProPublica





Read More







The Big Thaw: How Russia Could Dominate a Warming World



The exodus of the young means these towns could enter a population death spiral. Older residents are also more likely to be retired, which means they will contribute less to their local tax base, which will erode funding for schools and infrastructure, and leave less money available to meet the costs of environmental change even as those costs rise. All of that is very likely to perpetuate further out-migration.
The older these communities get, the more new challenges emerge. In many coastal areas, for example, one solution under consideration for rising seas is to raise the height of coastal homes. But, as Hauer told me, “adding steps might not be the best adaptation in places with an elderly population.” In other places older residents will be less able and independent, relying ever more on emergency services. This week many of Helene’s victims have simply been cut off, revealing the dangerous gaps left by broken infrastructure, and a mistaken belief that many people can take care of themselves.
In the future authorities will have to adapt the ways they keep their services online, and the vehicles and boats they use, in order to keep flooded and dangerous places connected. Such implications are worrisome. But so is the larger warning inherent in Hauer’s findings: Many of the effects of climate change on American life will be subtle and unexpected. The future demographics of this country might look entirely unfamiliar. It’s past time to give real thought to who might get left behind.



Filed under —


Environment








Abrahm Lustgarten





X





 

Abrahm Lustgarten writes about human adaptation to climate change, including global migration, demographic change and conflicts in response to a warming planet.


More Stories



  Contact Me  


 
 
 
 







More in Environment


Caret














                                    How Trump’s Federal Funding and Hiring Freezes Are Leaving America Vulnerable to Catastrophic Wildfire
                            


                            Uncertainty over funding and hiring stemming from the president’s executive orders has limited wildfire training and postponed work to reduce flammable vegetation. It has also led some firefighters to leave the force, their colleagues said.
                    

            by Mark Olalde,             Feb. 14, 2025, 5 a.m. EST












                                    How Trump’s EPA Threatens Efforts to Clean Up Areas Affected Most by Dangerous Air Pollution
                            


                            In just two weeks, Donald Trump has made drastic changes to the Environmental Protection Agency. Here’s how they could impact efforts to reform toxic hot spots across the U.S. and who will be left to safeguard these communities.
                    

            by Lisa Song,             Feb. 5, 2025, 5 a.m. EST












                                    How Climate Change Could Upend the American Dream
                            


                            Americans have long accumulated wealth by owning their homes, but a new study predicts that spiking insurance rates and climate disasters now herald an era of widespread losses.
                    

            by Abrahm Lustgarten,             Feb. 3, 2025, 5 a.m. EST












                                    North Dakota Sued the Interior Department at Least Five Times Under Gov. Doug Burgum. Now He’s Set to Run the Agency.
                            


                            The state was hostile to Interior Department policies during the Biden administration. A review of its lawsuits under Burgum reveals an aggressively pro-fossil fuel agenda.
                    

            by Mary Steurer, North Dakota Monitor, and Mark Olalde, ProPublica,             Jan. 24, 2025, 5 a.m. EST

Local Reporting Network











                                    Donald Trump’s No. 2 Pick for the EPA Represented Companies Accused of Pollution Harm
                            


                            David Fotouhi, a lawyer who recently challenged a ban on asbestos, worked to roll back climate regulations and water protections while serving in the Environmental Protection Agency during Trump’s first administration.
                    

            by Sharon Lerner,             Jan. 22, 2025, 3:10 p.m. EST












                                    This Storm-Battered Town Voted for Trump. He Has Vowed to Overturn the Law That Could Fix Its Homes.
                            


                            Donald Trump has said he will overturn a law that helps communities better weather the effects of climate change. If he follows through, he’ll be reversing an initiative that has disproportionately benefited areas that make up his base.
                    

            by Sharon Lerner, photography by Annie Flanagan for ProPublica,             Jan. 17, 2025, 5 a.m. EST






Most Read











                                    Trump Vowed to Clean Up Washington, Then His Team Hired a Man Who Pushed a Scam the IRS Called the “Worst of the Worst”
                            


                            Frank Schuler was a leading promoter of a tax deduction derided as a scam by prosecutors, senators and the IRS. Now he’s a senior adviser to the General Services Administration, which manages the federal government’s property.
                    

            by Peter Elkind,             Feb. 18, 2025, 6 a.m. EST














                                    The One That Got Away: This Small Town Is Left in Limbo After Betting Big on GMO Salmon
                            


                            AquaBounty GMO salmon was going to be the future of fish — and the future for one Ohio village that offered incentives to make a new facility happen. But years after breaking ground, there are no fancy fish tanks. No designer fish. No new jobs.
                    

            by Anna Clark,             Feb. 18, 2025, 5 a.m. EST














                                    “We’ve Been Essentially Muzzled”: Department of Education Halts Thousands of Civil Rights Investigations Under Trump
                            


                            Since Inauguration Day, the Office for Civil Rights has only opened about 20 investigations focused on Trump’s priorities, placing more than 10,000 student complaints related to disability access and sexual and racial harassment on hold.
                    

            by Jennifer Smith Richards and Jodi S. Cohen,             Feb. 13, 2025, 9:30 p.m. EST














                                    Trump Official Destroying USAID Secretly Met With Christian Nationalists Abroad in Defiance of U.S. Policy
                            


                            Now one of the most powerful people in the U.S. government, Peter Marocco’s turbulent tenure during the first Trump administration sheds light on his current efforts to dismantle the American foreign aid system from the inside out.
                    

            by Brett Murphy and Anna Maria Barry-Jester,             Feb. 15, 2025, 9 p.m. EST












The New Immigration


                                    U.S. Claims Immigrants Held at Guantanamo Are “Worst of the Worst.” Their Families Say They’re Being Unfairly Targeted.
                            


                            ProPublica and The Texas Tribune have identified nearly a dozen immigrants who have been flown to Guantanamo Bay. Government officials have refused to release the names of detainees or provide details about the crimes that landed them in detention.
                    

            by Perla Trevizo and Mica Rosenberg, ProPublica and The Texas Tribune,             Feb. 13, 2025, 1:20 p.m. CST




 
 


Stay informed with the Daily Digest.  Mail Email Address:   Arrow Right Sign Up            ProPublica Investigative Journalism in the Public Interest © Copyright 2025 Pro Publica Inc.   Sites ProPublica Local Reporting Network Texas Tribune Partnership The Data Store Electionland    Sections Topics Series Videos News Apps Get Involved The Nerd Blog @ProPublica Events    Info About Board and Advisors Officers and Staff Diversity Jobs and Fellowships Media Center Reports Impact Awards Corrections    Policies Code of Ethics Advertising Policy Privacy Policy    Follow Newsletters iOS and Android RSS Feed    More Send Us Tips Steal Our Stories Browse via Tor Contact Us Donate More Ways to Give     







Close




Close this dialogue






Republish This Story for Free
Creative Commons License (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)

Thank you for your interest in republishing this story. You are free to republish it so long as you do the following:

You have to credit ProPublica and any co-reporting partners. In the byline, we prefer “Author Name, Publication(s).” At the top of the text of your story, include a line that reads: “This story was originally published by ProPublica.” You must link the word “ProPublica” to the original URL of the story.
If you’re republishing online, you must link to the URL of this story on propublica.org, include all of the links from our story, including our newsletter sign up language and link, and use our PixelPing tag.
If you use canonical metadata, please use the ProPublica URL. For more information about canonical metadata, refer to this Google SEO link.
You can’t edit our material, except to reflect relative changes in time, location and editorial style. (For example, “yesterday” can be changed to “last week,” and “Portland, Ore.” to “Portland” or “here.”)
You cannot republish our photographs or illustrations without specific permission. Please contact [email protected].
It’s okay to put our stories on pages with ads, but not ads specifically sold against our stories. You can’t state or imply that donations to your organization support ProPublica’s work.
You can’t sell our material separately or syndicate it. This includes publishing or syndicating our work on platforms or apps such as Apple News, Google News, etc.
You can’t republish our material wholesale, or automatically; you need to select stories to be republished individually. (To inquire about syndication or licensing opportunities, contact [email protected].)
You can’t use our work to populate a website designed to improve rankings on search engines or solely to gain revenue from network-based advertisements.
We do not generally permit translation of our stories into another language.
Any website our stories appear on must include a prominent and effective way to contact you.




Copy HTML







 undefined undefined    





















I understand how and why research happens but it really doesn’t take a genius to figure this one out.