How will the January 6 dossier affect Trump’s White House bid?    We haven't been able to take paymentYou must update your payment details via My Account or by clicking update payment details to keep your subscription.Update payment detailsAct now to keep your subscriptionWe've tried to contact you several times as we haven't been able to take payment. You must update your payment details via My Account or by clicking update payment details to keep your subscription.Update payment detailsYour subscription is due to terminateWe've tried to contact you several times as we haven't been able to take payment. You must update your payment details via My Account, otherwise your subscription will terminate. Update payment detailsMore from The Times and The Sunday TimesTap 'Menu' and then 'Explore'Tap 'Menu' and then 'Explore'DismissAccessibility LinksSkip to contentSearchHomeUKWorldCommentBusiness & MoneySportLife & StyleCulturePuzzlesMagazinesLoginSubscribeLog inSubscribeHomeUKWorldCommentBusiness & MoneySportLife & StyleCulturePuzzlesMagazines ANALYSISHow will the January 6 dossier affect Trump’s White House bid?A month from election day, startling allegations have emerged about the Republican nominee’s actions during the 2021 Capitol riotHugh Tomlinson, WashingtonThursday October 03 2024, 11.05pm, The TimesDonald Trump addressing supporters on January 6, 2021, before some of them stormed the Capitol in WashingtonJACQUELYN MARTIN/APHugh Tomlinson, WashingtonThursday October 03 2024, 11.05pm, The TimesThe “October surprise” has been a feature of presidential campaigns for so long that the real twist would be if there were no such dramatic development to disrupt a US election in its final weeks.The publication on Wednesday night of a dossier of evidence alleging that Donald Trump “resorted to crimes” in an attempt to overturn the 2020 election certainly fits the bill as this year’s first example.The 165-page brief compiled by the special counsel Jack Smith provides detailed records of private conversations involving Trump in the build-up to and during the storming of the US Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021.• Who will win the election? Latest pollsThey appear to confirm that Trump knew he had lost to Joe Biden and understood that there was no evidence of his claims of election fraud, yet pressed ahead anyway with a scheme to subvert the peaceful transfer of power.AdvertisementTwenty-four hours after the allegations were made public, both candidates’ camps will be weighing two questions: are these findings likely to make any difference to the race and, if so, who will they benefit more: Trump or Kamala Harris?Many Democrats blamed Hillary Clinton’s loss to Trump in 2016 on the late decision by James Comey, then director of the FBI, to reopen the investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server.James Comey is thought to have altered the course of the 2016 electionJ SCOTT APPLEWHITE/APFour years earlier, the emergence of a secret recording of Mitt Romney belittling almost half of Americans as people who “are dependent upon government, who believe they are victims, who believe the government has responsibility to care for them” provided a late boost to his rival, President Obama, who went on to win re-election.Certainly, this new evidence contains startling revelations — even for those who have already read, watched and listened to extensive reconstructions of the January 6 events, including the impeachment trial of the former president for inciting insurrection. (He was acquitted after all but five Senate Republicans voted not to convict.)Read more about the electionHow Republicans have mobilised an army of poll watchers to ‘stop the steal’Gerard Baker: Vance is the credible face of US populismMelania Trump defends abortion rights in new memoirThere is the moment when Trump allegedly told family members that “it doesn’t matter if you won or lost the election, you still have to fight like hell”. There is his alleged comment to Mike Pence, his vice-president, in response to a suggestion that he accept the election defeat and run again in four years: “I don’t know, 2024 is so far off.”AdvertisementThe detail that has received the most attention, however, is a description of the scene in the White House on January 6 itself, when Trump supporters were chanting for Pence to be hanged because he refused to block certification of the election result. Trump was watching Fox News and scrolling through Twitter. Seconds after Fox News reported that rioters had breached the Capitol, he tweeted: “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done.”Soon after that, he was informed by an aide that Pence had fled for his life. Trump allegedly responded: “So what?”Mike Pence presiding in Congress before being forced to flee for his lifeERIN SCHAFF/GETTY IMAGESTrump and his advisers know that the shadow of January 6 can hurt him with undecided voters as he and Harris make their final pitches before polling day. In his vice-presidential debate with JD Vance on Tuesday, Tim Walz, Harris’s running-mate, scored his biggest hit of the night when he asked his Republican counterpart to admit that Trump lost the 2020 race.Vance dodged the question with what Walz called “a damning non-answer”. By the following morning the Harris-Walz campaign had clipped the exchange and laid it over video of the attack on the Capitol.JD Vance and Tim Walz on the debate stage this weekCHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGESFor this reason, Trump’s team fought tooth and nail to keep the dossier away from the public. They were still demanding further redactions in the hours before it was unsealed on the order of Judge Tanya Chutkan.AdvertisementIts publication has given Harris fresh material to make her case that Trump represents an unprecedented threat to American freedoms and democracy. But the dossier could also work the other way.On Wednesday night Trump denounced it as “complete and total election interference” in a barrage of block-capital posts on Truth Social. Many of his supporters already believe that he is a victim of persistent harassment by Democratic judges and prosecutors.Smith was appointed by Merrick Garland, Biden’s attorney-general, while Chutkan was appointed by President Obama in 2013. Their involvement will only fuel the sense among the Trump faithful that the investigation and the timing of publication were both politically motivated.Judge Tanya ChutkanAPThere is no chance of Trump standing trial in the January 6 case before the election.AdvertisementAs to whether Smith’s dossier spells deeper legal trouble for the former president, it remains far from clear how much, if any, of this evidence can even be presented in court. A landmark ruling in July by the Supreme Court granted presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution for most of their official actions.Chutkan, who previously ruled that Trump did not have “the divine right of kings to evade the criminal accountability that governs his fellow citizens” must now go line by line through Smith’s evidence to assess which allegations can be presented to a jury. To do that she must establish which relate to actions that can be tied to Trump acting as a private citizen seeking office, rather than as president.This will take months. By then, the American people will already have chosen their new president and if Trump wins, the case will almost certainly be thrown out. WorldRelated articlesTrump hatched ‘criminal scheme’ to cling to power, dossier claimsOctober 03 2024, 2.15amHugh Tomlinson, WashingtonIN DEPTHHow Republicans have mobilised an army of poll watchers to ‘stop the steal’October 03 2024, 8.10pmSamuel Lovett, New YorkPROMOTED CONTENTBack to topGet in touchAbout usContact usHelpThe Times Editorial ComplaintsThe Sunday Times Editorial ComplaintsPlace an announcementClassified advertisingDisplay advertisingThe Times correctionsThe Sunday Times correctionsCareersMore from The Times and The Sunday TimesThe Times e-paperThe Sunday Times e-paperThe Sunday Times Wine ClubTimes Print GalleryThe Times ArchiveTimes Crossword ClubSunday Times DrivingTimes+The Sunday Times Rich ListTravelGood University GuideSchools GuideNewslettersBest Places to LiveBest Places to StayTimes AppointmentsPodcastsTimes Money MentorTimes LuxurySportswomen of the Year AwardsBest Places to WorkPuzzlesMore from News CorpThe AustralianBarron'sDow JonesFinancial News LondonInvestor's Business DailyMansion GlobalMarketWatchRealtor.comThe SunTimes Literary SupplementThe Wall Street Journal© Times Media Limited 2025.Registered in England No. 894646. 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You would think it would be the immediate end of any possibility of him becoming president. The reality is probably not at all.