PHILADELPHIA — The sentiment was sincere. The message was applauded. The speaker had the proper qualifications. The slogan, destined to stick, was short but direct.
“We will reign again,” Bryce Harper said, into a microphone before the Phillies' game against Miami, to the delight of a Fan Appreciation Day crowd.
The Phillies spend money and they can't have worse injury luck next year and Harper is a superstar coming off a splendid year at age 26. So, OK. They have a chance. But that will require a thorough disinfection of a pitching staff that literally was unable to spin once through a rotation without a loss. Nothing will be as important, not firing the manager, not tweaking the lineup, not John Middleton chartering around on recruiting trips, his wallet too puffy for the overhead compartment.
The pitching staff must be upgraded, or that $330,000,000 Middleton spent for Harper will never yield championship baseball. Gabe Kapler has struggled in Philadelphia for many reasons, including his inability to spread urgency in the clubhouse. So for the way he constantly tried to spread nonsense about scratching and grinding, for the way he never knew how to resonate in the market, and for some of his in-game flubs, he could soon be fired. But no matter who manages the Phillies next season, the results will be similar without major mound upgrades.
“I don't think it's any secret,” said J.T. Realmuto, on the Phillies' biggest need. “Probably pitching. We can improve defensively as well. But we definitely need some pitching. We need starters. We need bullpen. You can never have too much pitching so I think that's where we need to go.”
The upgrading must begin with a change in pitching coaches. Chris Young, age 38, was unqualified for the position and it showed, with every starting pitcher rolling into retreat, 2018 All-Star Aaron Nola included. Matt Klentak must be harshly judged for his decision to pair a pennant-ready lineup with a rotation filthy with pitchers once characterized by Pete Mackanin as “the usual suspects.” Young wasn't able to make much out of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin or the ever-injured Jerad Eickhoff. It's possible that no one can. But the Phillies owe themselves an experienced, accomplished, respected leader and teacher.
If there is to be a new manager, it should be a veteran. Joe Girardi and Mike Scioscia are available. Both were winning catchers. Though Scioscia is a genius at calling a game, first behind the plate and then for his Hall of Fame-candidacy managerial career, he is not known to be as professionally invested in baseball analytics as Klentak is likely to demand. Girardi, though, is open enough to it that Klentak could sell him without sacrificing any of his own professional dignity.
With a good pitching coach in place and a former catcher as manager, the healing can start. As for the necessary medication, that only comes in one color: Green. Even before last offseason, when Middleton went heavy into the market, Andy MacPhail had hinted that the winter of 2019-2020 would be central to the completion of the project. That means the Phillies must be “a little stupid” again.
Though there will be heavy competition, as there was last year for Patrick Corbin, Gerrit Cole will be available. At 29, the three-time All-Star will be coming off a 20-5 season for Houston. Figure he will demand Harper money and more, given baseball inflation and that he will be a $35 million annual. With the Phillies obligated to raise Realmuto into that price range or risk losing him as a free agent in 2020-2021, the lure of Cole will be the ultimate test of Middleton's resolve for the Phillies to resurface as world champions.
As much as the Phillies would prefer to keep Rhys Hoskins as proof that their farm system is not as inept as reputed, they have enough power on site to take that risk. A reasonably priced power hitter, just 26, Hoskins should be traded for a reliable and healthy No. 3 starter.
For a No. 4, the Phillies should tuck the $6 million they'd have to pay to keep Jason Vargas for another year into an offer free agent Cole Hamels. Known to want to return, Hamels would not likely hold Middleton up for more than $16 million over two years.
In otherwise fine shape at age 35, Jake Arrieta will be coming off surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. That not being career-threatening, and with him having responded quickly after a similar surgery earlier in his career, he would be an acceptable No. 5 starter.
The relief staff will need an upgrade. Hector Neris has been acceptable whenever he is not asked for more than three outs. Ranger Suarez could be considered a young success story. Jose Alvarez is a left-handed value play. From there, the Phils could fill the rest of the bullpen with low-level free agents.
It all would work: A new pitching coach, a catcher for a manger, Gerrit Cole, Nola down-sizing to a No. 2, the haul for Hoskins, a fair bid for Cole Hamels, a recovered Arrieta and a reimagined bullpen.
Do that, and Bryce Harper will be right.
Do that, and the Phillies could reign again.