MOOD OF THE NATION POLL: BEST CHIEF MINISTERS
Narendra Modi was not the chief minister of Gujarat when in August 2001, India Today and pollsters AC Nielsen-ORG-MARG broadened the scope of the Mood of the Nation Poll to gauge the performance of the country’s chief ministers, to see who among them, in public perception, were the best performers and who were the laggards.Two months later in October 2001, Modi replaced Keshubhai Patel as the state chief minister, courted much controversy, won two elections and has since then stayed on in office.
In our first poll since he rose to power, Modi was voted the fifth best chief minister by voters across the country and he moved up to the third spot in our subsequent exercise six months later. He has stayed in the top three in the many polls since then, for long terms occupying the top slot, yielding occasionally only to bounce back.
Our last poll was conducted a year ago where Modi shared the top slot with his good friend, Nitish Kumar of Bihar. Our current poll, conducted just a month after he was sworn in as chief minister for a third consecutive time, puts him head-and-shoulders above the rest of the pack.
In the 14th Mood of the Nation Poll (results and details of the main poll were published in issue dated February 4, 2008) 12,492 voters in 98 parliamentary constituencies spread across 19 states were asked to rate the performance of the chief ministers of their own states as well as to give their perception about those of the other states.
That 77 per cent of voters in his own state of Gujarat consider him the best chief minister should come as no surprise considering that less than two months ago, he decimated the opposition Congress virtually singlehandedly.
What, however, does come as a surprise is that larger numbers of voters in other states too believe Modi is on the right path. In Delhi where Sheila Dikshit could garner just 43 per cent of the votes, “outsider” Modi was considered the best by 31 per cent of the voters.
If the managers of BJP’s election campaign in poll-bound Karnataka are in search of some good news, here it is: 35 per cent of the state’s voters think Modi is the best chief minister. (See graphic: Popularity chart of chief ministers)
May be the state BJP unit should ask him to lead the campaign on behalf of the party. Though small, it is significant that he evokes a positive response among sections even in red West Bengal and Kerala and Ram-bashing Tamil Nadu, something even the formidable Mayawati has not been able to achieve despite her recent pan-Indian exertions aimed at spreading BSP credo. (See graphic: Voter perceptions)
Change of guard
A strong wave against incumbents in some of the poll-bound states points to voter dissatisfaction with their respective state governments. This could be a pointer to a possible change in the power structure after the assembly elections later this year and a barometer for electoral fortunes in the Lok Sabha polls next year.
Dikshit occupied the number one slot in our polls three years ago, but has slipped to the fifth place in national rankings this time. Worse, with the voters of her state giving her a net popularity rating (NPR) of 26, she is ranked as low as 14th among the 19 chief ministers surveyed.
Among all the ministers heading for polls, her tally is one of the lowest. This is not to suggest that her counterparts in other states are going to have an easy stroll back to power.
Voters in Maharashtra, Orissa and Jharkhand seem less satisfied with their chief ministers Vilasrao Deshmukh, Naveen Patnaik and Madhu Koda than they were a year ago, while the reverse is the case in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
The dumper scandal involving his wife seems to have had little effect on the public’s perception of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, while Vasundhara Raje, among the grittiest to have occupied the chief minister’s chair in Jaipur, has won the voters’ backing for her administrative acumen and tenacity.
The picture at the national and state level appears mixed. Uttarakhand’s B.C. Khanduri comes 18th nationally while stands first at the state level and Mayawati who is ranked second at the national level is a lowly 17th at the state level. There are exceptions though. Buddhadeb Bhattacharya, ranked first two years ago, has slipped to the eighth place nationally and with an NPR of 20, he stands16th at the state level. West Bengal obviously is not ready to be reformed.
The poll sample covered 12,492 voters of 98 parliamentary constituencies in 19 states, spread across urban, rural areas and comprising both males and females in different age groups.
Apart from their opinion on who they thought was the best chief minister, voters were also asked to rate the performance of the chief ministers of their respective states.
Not surprisingly, while voters backed their own chief minister at the national level, they were meaner while assessing their work within the state.
— with Priya Verma