Predicting Detroit Lions' 53-man roster: Ameer Abdullah in or out?
Editor's note: This story was updated Tuesday afternoon to reflect the Lions' surprising decision to release defensive end Robert Ayers one day after he signed.
Detroit Lions coach Matt Patricia doesn’t tell stories quite like his predecessor Jim Caldwell.
When a reporter asked Patricia for an example Monday of a player he’d seen win a roster spot with a strong performance in the fourth preseason game, Patricia cited one such case with nowhere near as much detail as Caldwell’s favorite Blair White story (he caught 18 passes in the final preseason game!).
“You had mentioned that and I think Dan Klecko’s name popped into my head real quick there, way back when,” Patricia said. “But I think these are great opportunities. Every single day of practice is a great opportunity and every opportunity to get in a game and show us that you can do it when the lights come on is obviously critically important. So, there’s probably been numerous examples through the course of the years. That was the first thing that popped into my head.”
The Lions have had their own versions of White and Klecko in recent years.
Last year, Tion Green locked up a roster spot with 152 yards from scrimmage in the preseason finale, including an impressive 74-yard touchdown catch and run.
The Lions have one final preseason game to play Thursday against the Cleveland Browns, and while the vast majority of their roster is set, there’s still the chance someone could win a job with a big day.
I won’t be hazarding a guess here on who that will be, but rather my one and only 53-man roster prediction of the summer takes into account a month of training camp evaluations, the spring players spent with coaches, and all the breadcrumbs the Lions have dropped along the way.
Patricia and Lions general manager Bob Quinn have until 4 p.m. Saturday to shave 37 players off their current 90-man roster. Here’s my best guess at who will be left when the bloodletting is done.
In: Matthew Stafford, Matt Cassel
Out: Jake Rudock*
Explain yourself: Stafford is the Lions’ guaranteed starter, and frankly neither of his backups have been great this summer. Rudock, 25, is younger and has superior preseason numbers (44 of 61 passing for 313 yards and 2 TDs), but Cassel (23 of 38, 183 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) is the wily vet who has a past with Patricia that obviously counts for something. If you’d have asked me in June who I thought the backup would be, I’d have said Rudock. Now, I’m taking Cassel. But the truth of the matter is, if the Lions choose Rudock and something happens to Stafford, Cassel should be available in the middle of the season.
Running back (5)
In: Kerryon Johnson, LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah, Nick Bellore
Out: Zach Zenner, Dwayne Washington
Injured reserve: Nick Bawden
Explain yourself: The right play would be for the Lions to make Johnson their feature back and ride him as far as they can. Patricia, however, seems to prefer the back-by-committee approach. Blount and Riddick should be in the playing group as nice complements to Johnson, and Bellore is the team’s fullback and a killer on special teams. The fifth running back spot comes down to whether the Lions want the best insurance policy for their offense in Abdullah, or whether they value prefer Zenner’s versatility and contributions in the kick game. If the Lions can’t trade Abdullah, it makes sense to keep him.
Wide receiver (4)
In: Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, TJ Jones
Out: Brandon Powell*, Bradley Marquez, Jace Billingsley, Brian Brown, Teo Redding*, Chris Lacy, Dontez Ford
Physically unable to perform list: Andy Jones
Explain yourself: The first difficult decision of this exercise comes at the wide receiver position, where the Lions have four players locked into roster spots and a few more in the mix for maybe one job. Powell has a team-leading 15 catches for 99 yards this preseason and returned a punt for a touchdown last week. The Lions gave him the most guaranteed money of all their undrafted free agents, and if they fear he won’t make it through to practice squad, it makes sense to keep him as the heir apparent to Golden Tate. Marquez is another option for the fifth receiver spot as the best special-teams player of the group, but with seven inactives on gameday, it will be rare that the Lions keep a fifth receiver up on Sundays. Ultimately, I think a player like Miles Killebrew has more value on special teams than Marquez. Billingsley was running pretty steady as the fifth receiver for most of the summer, but if the Lions want to keep a backup slot receiver, Powell should be the guy.
Tight end (4)
In: Luke Willson, Levine Toilolo, Hakeem Valles, Michael Roberts
Out: Marcus Lucas, Sean McGrath
Explain yourself: The Lions kept four tight ends on their roster for the first nine games of the 2016 season, so it’s not a stretch to think they could go heavy at the position again. Valles has done enough to earn a job with a strong preseason, and his skill set as a receiver is different enough from the rest of the group to warrant keeping around. I’m not sure what to make of Roberts, a fourth-round pick last year whose inconsistency has seemed to annoy his coaches at times. He doesn’t strike me as a Patricia-type player, but he is a big body, a solid blocker and a potential red-zone weapon, and giving up on him would be hard to do. Lucas, for what it’s worth, has played a pretty prominent role on special teams this summer. Ultimately, I kept Roberts on the roster as an extra tight end over Powell as a fifth receiver, but I could easily see the Lions going the other way.
Offensive line (9)
In: Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, Graham Glasgow, T.J. Lang, Rick Wagner, Corey Robinson, Tyrell Crosby, Kenny Wiggins, Wesley Johnson
Out: Leo Koloamatangi*, Joe Dahl*, John Montelus, Beau Nunn, Brian Mihalik, Dan Skipper, Jamar McGloster
Explain yourself: Picking a ninth lineman was one of the hardest calls I had to make as Robinson, Dahl, Johnson and even Koloamatangi can make a case for spots. I thought early in camp the Lions could go with just eight linemen, but Robinson seems a bit more reliable than the rookie Crosby as the Lions’ swing tackle. As for the second backup interior line spot, Johnson has had a better preseason than Dahl and his ability to play center gives him the nod here. Two points of caution: Dahl is a Bob Quinn draft pick, and when Glasgow missed time early in camp, it was Ragnow and not Johnson who played with the first-team. I think this decision goes to the wire with Thursday’s game a big factor.
Defensive line (8)
In: Ziggy Ansah, Sylvester Williams, Ricky Jean Francois, Da’Shawn Hand, Anthony Zettel, A’Shawn Robinson, Jeremiah Ledbetter, Kerry Hyder
Out: Jeremiah Valoaga, Toby Johnson, Christian Ringo, Josh Fatu*
Explain yourself: It’s interesting that Matt Patricia’s defenses the last two years in New England kept just seven (in 2016) and eight (in 2017) defensive linemen on their initial 53-man roster. That was partly a function of the talent on the hand, but also perhaps some insight into how Patricia wants to build the Lions defense. Hyder looked like a potential cut when the Lions signed Robert Ayers on Monday, but a spot opened up again when the Lions released Ayers on Tuesday. Ultimately, I think the Lions still have a move or two up their sleeve on the defensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Lions made a trade at the cut deadline — perhaps for one of the Patriots’ backup tackles — or claimed someone off waivers to help with their depth up front.
In: Jarrad Davis, Devon Kennard, Christian Jones, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Jonathan Freeny, Eli Harold, Miles Killebrew, Trevor Bates
Out: Alex Barrett*, Cam Johnson, Darnell Sankey, Freddie Bishop, Chad Meredith*
Injured reserve: Steve Longa
Explain yourself: A couple things have happened in recent weeks to shake up the Lions’ depth chart at the linebacker position. Longa was in line to make the team before he tore his ACL, and the Lions sent a future draft pick to the San Francisco 49ers last week for Harold. Before that trade, I thought Barrett was in line to make the team, and he still could be. He sets a fine edge at outside linebacker and has some pass-rush ability as well. But with Kennard and Harold in front of him, the Lions might be better served keeping special-teams contributors like Killebrew and Bates. Killebrew is a hard one to figure out. He won’t be a factor on defense, not after a position change, but he plays a key role on the kick- and punt-cover units. The Lions have a couple weeks to assess Harold before their pick is conveyed in the trade, so it’s certainly possible they change course and want Barrett as their backup.
Defensive back (10)
In: CB-Darius Slay, Nevin Lawson, DeShawn Shead, Teez Tabor, Jamal Agnew; S-Glover Quin, Quandre Diggs, Tavon Wilson, Tracy Walker, Charles Washington
Out: CB-Chris Jones*, Mike Ford*, Dexter McDougle, Sterling Moore; S-Rolan Milligan, Marcus Cromartie
Explain yourself: If you’re looking for a spot where a player could win a job Thursday, the secondary is a good place to start. The Lions brought Moore, McDougle and Cromartie in for looks last week, and a strong performance against the Browns might be enough to convince coaches to keep them. In fact, I was looking for a way to put Moore on this roster projection, but he didn’t flash in his debut and I want to see more before I give him a job. Washington gets the 10th spot in the secondary here because of his special-teams prowess, but keeping 11 defensive backs is a possibility, especially if Shead hits another hiccup in his recovery.
In: Sam Martin, Matt Prater, Don Muhlbach
Out: Ryan Santoso
Explain yourself: This seems like the easiest call on the roster. Santoso has punted the ball well this summer, with a 43-yard net average, which is higher than Martin’s 40.4-yard net. Martin had a down year last year, but he’s still a Pro Bowl-caliber punter and the Lions aren’t in a position where they need to save on his $2.925 million cap number. Prater and Muhlbach are locks, and the Lions should once again have one of the best special-teams units in the league.
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