The past nine months have been the summer, fall and winter of Research In Motion's (ticker: RIMM) discontent as BlackBerry sales slowed and revenue fell before the onslaught of Apple aapl 3.1133466308212645% Apple Inc. U.S.: Nasdaq USD118.9 3.59 3.1133466308212645% /Date(1422568800486-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 83267790 AFTER HOURS USD119.05 0.149999999999991 0.1261564339781329% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1168642 P/E Ratio 15.917001338688086 Market Cap 671651683064.58 Dividend Yield 1.5811606391925987% Rev. per Employee 2148260 More quote details and news » and Samsung Electronics.
Will the spring bring rejuvenation? Not exactly, but at least it may bring hope.
As Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (SSNLF) vie for the top spot in smartphones, RIM's share of worldwide sales has sunk to 8.3% from 14.4% in the past year, according to research firm Canalys. RIM is expected to report a 6% decline in revenue for the fiscal year that ended in February and a 36% drop in profit—the first annual declines in the company's history. RIM will report results on Thursday.
That event was made more electric Friday when Bloomberg's Hugo Miller reported that RIM will give software developers samples of its forthcoming BlackBerry 10 handset in May. RIM's CEO Thorsten Heins, who was appointed in late January, has said BB10 will be nothing less than the "transformation of the BlackBerry for the next decade."
If true, that would be thrilling for BlackBerry loyalists. A decade ago, RIM and its stock were darlings, and Apple wasn't even in the phone business. RIM's shares are down 78% in the last year. Of the 48 analysts that follow the stock, nearly two-thirds have Hold ratings and the other third rate it Sell.
More telling, perhaps, is that Todd Coupland with CIBC in Toronto, one of only two analysts with a Buy rating, has stopped focusing on the actual number of BlackBerrys sold. As that number has dwindled in recent quarters, it has become harder to forecast. Instead, Coupland's bull thesis is based on his forecast of future cash flows that RIM may earn from the monthly subscriber fees it charges for its secure e-mail service.
Despite the slide in BlackBerry sales, RIM's subscriber count actually rose 35%, year over year, in the most recent quarter, to 75 million. Those future cash flows add up to a present value of $25 a share, he says.
That's an 83% upside from Friday's close of $13.66—tantalizing, if you're in a betting mood. But no matter how many subscribers RIM has now, it won't last if BlackBerry sales don't rebound at some point.
Coupland rejects a scenario where Apple's and Samsung's dominance leaves no room at all for a smaller player. "My view on RIM is that there's a place for them in the market," Coupland told me last week. "It isn't a binary outcome, where it's all or nothing" in smartphones.
And yet, the world has never seen a company bounce back from the kind of market-share loss in a hot tech product that RIM has sustained. Apple survived as a niche company for decades, but it nearly went bankrupt, too, before Steve Jobs returned.
What saved Apple was something new that galvanized the world. It isn't clear if BB10, in a crowded but still-growing market for smartphones, will be the RIM equivalent of an iPod.
In the meantime, it will be imperative for RIM to maintain a steady, if diminished, rate of handset sales in places where the brand is still relatively strong, such as Latin America.
RIM has to do so if it hopes to keep developers interested while they wait for BB10—and while their hearts wander to the parade of new devices from Samsung, Apple and, increasingly, Microsoft msft 1.9907744598203447% Microsoft Corp. U.S.: Nasdaq USD42.01 0.82 1.9907744598203447% /Date(1422568800012-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 59622808 AFTER HOURS USD42.05 0.0399999999999992 0.09521542489883361% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 3962465 P/E Ratio 16.804 Market Cap 337913899319.753 Dividend Yield 2.951678171863842% Rev. per Employee 728656 More quote details and news » (MSFT) and Nokia nok -1.7743979721166032% Nokia Corp. ADS U.S.: NYSE USD7.75 -0.14 -1.7743979721166032% /Date(1422568883813-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 24952681 AFTER HOURS USD7.79 0.04 0.5161290322580645% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 530540 P/E Ratio 7.049940871463659 Market Cap 30367870332.7909 Dividend Yield 4.579096774193548% Rev. per Employee 303734 More quote details and news » (NOK).
If RIM on Thursday forecasts BlackBerry sales of, say nine million to 11 million units in the current quarter, "that would be a pretty good outlook," says Coupland, given low expectations. If it's less than that, it will be that much harder for RIM to convince developers that there's something worth waiting around for.
Amazon.com bought a maker of warehouse robots. Zynga insiders are selling stock. The Nasdaq Composite ended the week at 3,068—up 0.4%.