Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for November is currently $38.55/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $38.44/MWh, this is a fairly small increase of 0.3% or $0.11/MWh. The uptick in price can be attributed to a bump in hourly demand in the province to 9,994MW, up 102MW or 1%. Price volatility has fallen week-over-week, with only two hourly periods reaching over $100/MWh on November 16th between 6-8pm MST. These price spikes coincided with daily peak demands. In addition, rolling outages at HR Milner, as well as intermittent outages at Sheerness 1 and Keephills 2, caused some slight price volatility. As we head into the winter season, we can expect some continued instability with pricing, as demand levels remain elevated this time of the year.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently at 1.1¢/kWh for the month of November, a spike of 0.5¢/kWh or 83% from last week’s settle. This price jump is driven by a week-over-week swing from above to below average temperatures, causing the supply mix to rely more heavily on expensive natural gas-burning generation. The population-weighted daily average temperature dropped nearly 10oC, to about 2oC, this past week. This temperature swing drove demand up 4% (14,328MW) compared to November average levels, slightly outpacing the rise in supply (+3%, 15,795MW). Dispatchable natural gas increased its supply by 25% relative to November levels (521MW), with nuclear and hydro also increasing their supply (+1%, 9,403MW; +11%, 3,925MW). Other sources decreased their supply: wind (-12%, 1,862MW), solar (-28%, 61MW), and biofuel (-14%, 23MW). As colder weather begins to settle in, we expect HOEP to creep up closer to 1.8¢/kWh, until strong cold fronts of the winter season hike prices higher. Currently, with the first Global Adjustment estimated at 11.7¢/kWh, November’s total market price is 12.8¢/kWh.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Data Analyst / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst