When Time magazine recently named "you" as its person of the year, there were many people who thought Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been unfairly snubbed. Who, after all, had meddled more powerfully in conflicts across the region, spreading money and terror and death from Iraq to Lebanon? Almost single-handedly, Ahmadinejad has proclaimed Iran's nuclear menace, defying UN warnings to stop uranium enrichment. He has turned the Islamic Republic into a worldwide symbol of hate, threatening to destroy Israel and hosting a deplorable Holocaust denial conference.
But now there are signs that all of this is not playing so well at home.
In recent days, two ballots caught Tehran's--and the world's--attention. In the first, Iranian voters turned out in huge numbers to bury Ahmadinejad's allies in municipal races. That was seen as a sharp warning to Ahmadinejad that he's spending too much time confronting the West and not enough time on Iran's struggling economy.
The second vote, unfortunately, wasn't so encouraging.
Last weekend, the UN Security Council capped months of agonizing negotiations with a resolution to punish Iran for continuing to pursue its nuclear program.
Scratch that. "Punish" is too strong a word for what the council did. It barely rolled a pebble in Iran's path to the bomb. It banned the import and export of materials and technology used in uranium enrichment and of materials that could help Iran build nuclear weapons and missiles. That sounds good, but Iran has already likely bought on the black market--or can still smuggle--most of what it needs.
Tehran's response was swift and typically pugnacious: It declared that it would push its nuclear program at "full speed."
And why not? Tehran has been betting that the Security Council wouldn't impose harsh sanctions. It has been betting that its friends and major trading partners, Russia and China, would block any serious effort at punishment. They have bet right. Russia led the way, showing that its real agenda is to thwart America, not stop a dangerous nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
The next UN deadline was set for 60 days. All that means is we won't have to wait long for Iran to blow through it.
So what now? The Bush administration, acknowledging that the UN resolution isn't enough by itself, will try to persuade its allies to tighten the economic vise on Iran.
That's the best way to make the mullahs think twice about the price of nuclear defiance. The U.S. wields enormous power to influence banks, as it has demonstrated in stifling the flow of aid to Hamas in the Palestinian territories and in further crippling North Korea. Some analysts say European banks already are nervous about investing in Iran, as are some private companies. Iran's oil minister recently complained that his country is encountering trouble in financing projects in its oil sector because of a growing reluctance among foreign lenders.
That's a good sign. Iran's riding high now. But it is not invulnerable to economic pressure--or the mounting displeasure of its own people.