Is there even such thing as a bearish narrative at this point? I'm not a bull, I'm not a bear, I'm unironically trying to invest to grow what money I have.

The debt ceiling was raised today however layoffs are growing which means two things:

>Stocks rise as companies are trimming fat to guarantee a profitable environment for shareholders

>The US will not default so the ultimate doom scenario was averted



What I am struggling to understand is the timeline. Everything going up I believe is strictly associated with markets playing a game of chicken with reality, and we all know larger hedge funds and money market operatives are significantly more efficient at trading markets than the general population. My question is simple: how much longer can the game of chicken go on until reality catches up with the equities markets?

Amazon is/has begun laying off at least 30,000 workers. Microsoft has laid off many. Facebook, the list goes on. The contraction still unironically hasn't happened yet and delusional belief that we're out of this mess is kind of unhinged.

Will it be -50% in the SP500 and Great Depression 2.0? No, I don't think so. Will it be similar in contraction/correction to 2008? I think so. But it's problematic as markets seem to just be ripping with almost no end in sight.



Previous charts show when the Fed pauses is when things take a turn for the worst, the question is, do you think the Fed pauses next week or hikes again? Pauses unironically signal extreme bear as the Fed believes, ultimately, they may have broken the lending market and have to ease off.



High IQ posts only.

May 2nd, no pause, no pivot, nothing breaking, Powell goes for another .25 or even .50

M1

>>54764220 (OP)

140 years of halvings

I'm not crossing my fingers for a pivot like it's going to revitalize the COVID boom. If you read my post it says the exact opposite actually. The game of chicken is pump equities UNTIL a pivot, then dump.

You'd have to explain further. I understand supply is shrinking but I do not understand what that has to do with my question or statements.

The cycles of Bitcoin may rise from the ashes, of course. But as many have said, Bitcoin was born and has only lived in a heavy QE environment and I'd be (as the rest of the world) a little shocked if Bitcoin skyrocketed like gold during a depression-like phase. Keep in mind Bitcoin has been rising to the day with stocks. Denying this is ignoring reality: when stocks are up so is Bitcoin. YTD Bitcoin's been like a 5x Nasdaq ETF.

unfortunately this, inflation will be wild but normies will stay in cash because they are retards thinking that rising rates = cash is king, but there will come a point when the dam brakes and shit comes loose, you better hold onto your btc/gold/real estate when it happens

0.25 or 0.5 is going to break more banks on the hot potatoes that are long term bonds and might end up being the breaking that sends the fed to act and pivot. Cant pause premeptively with job, housing and inflation data. Pivot, also no option. Rock and hard place. Maybe the gap between 4200 and 4300 get closed after the hike and the market levels on a higher plateau around 4100 continuing its crab until the breaking point
