Logic? You wrote: "One could know that that man was not one of the “bad guys”, Ellen, by the fact that he was not doing anything bad!"

Translation: Someone enters your orbit. He has a gun. If he doesn't do anything bad with it, you're safe. If he does, no one could have foreseen what follows.

To test your logic, try playing a game at home. Place a shell in the cylinder. Spin and close. Place the gun at your temple and take your chance. Your theory says that if the gun goes click, you were never in any danger.