The one factor that needs to be considered in regards to the next pope is that it will all depend on how many "+Francis cardinals" there are at the next conclave.  The more they are of the sort that +Francis has been choosing, then we are pretty much assured of a successor who will continue much of what this pope has started. Many of  the cardinals from St. JP2 and from +Benedict XVI are all aging out of voting rights, and/or have passed away.  This will create a pretty sizeable block of rather progressive/pastoral cardinals not to be ignored or minimized at the conclave.  The chance of getting a "restorationalist" pope went out with the previous one.