538 has become notorious in this cycle for underestimating Clinton's chances; virtually all of the other predictive sites give her much better odds. Try Princeton Election Consortium for a less horse-racey approach.

Bishop Paprocki misreads the history of the run-up to the Civil War. There were reasons that slavery (or, more accurately, the expansion of slavery into the territories) was such a dominant issue, and the moral case against slavery was not the most important driver of opposition to that expansion. Most people in the US - I suspect most Catholics, for that matter - don't regard abortion as the defining moral issue of our time.