Koncerned: I think you are correct that it would not have taken the Russian's 16 years to realize that this was a no win situation. Unfortunately by arming the Taliban with shoulder to air missiles capable of downing their helicopter gun ships, we preempted the Russian's from reaching that conclusion on their own. 
Inspite of Putin's recent  treatment of the Pussy Riot  Russians believe they would not have survived Hitler's WWII invasion without active participation of their women and thus have a high regard for their woman. Their efforts to educate Afgan women show this and far exceeded ours to date.