I agree with the more pessimistic view.  Plus, not at all to take away from the severity of the child abuse, but no one has yet addressed in any formal way, the priests who have (are?) abused teenagers, including women.  I know that this is a more minor problem, in terms of statistics, but I think that the abuse of the slightly older population of teens should be part of some future holistic report, particularly when such abuse took place in church related activities such as confession or retreats (the late John Powell, SJ of Chicago).  Although it is a problem in the larger population, the larger population is not preaching about sexual conduct nor using the venues available to the priests.