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@bblockwood @dtaubinsky ,\r\nThe goal of this issue is to come to an agreement on if/how we should do a randomized experiment to help measure bias.\r\n\r\nI think that there are two types of experiments we might like to do:\r\n1. Informational intervention, and measure effects on sales.\r\n2. Measurement of WTP to play now vs. play later, to understand temptation. Presumably this is more relevant for scratch-offs.\r\n\r\nFor state lottery tickets, there are a set of states where you can already buy online, see e.g. [here](https://www.playusa.com/online-lottery/). But there are also services that buy lottery tickets for you and promise to give you the winnings, see description [here](http://www.lotteryuniverse.com/how-to-buy-lottery-tickets-online.aspx) or [here](http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/technology/powerball-lotto-gopher/index.html) and an example service [here](https://www.thelotter.com/buy-online-tickets/).\r\n\r\nFor scratch-offs, there are also services, e.g. [here](https://www.playusalotteries.com/en/scratchcards.html) and [here](https://www.worldlotteryclub.com/en/scratchcards/Index). You have to sign up, so it's non-trivial. You could imagine getting a sample to sign up, and then seeing to what extent they want to play now vs. later.\r\n\r\nThese things make me think that it is in the realm of possibility to do either of these two experiments with an online sample. We could either program ourselves or, possibly, do this as part of a TESS experiment, although I think it would be quite expensive to do this part through TESS, and we might want to focus TESS just on measurement of expenditures.\r\n\r\nThoughts? We should come to some clarity here ASAP before we submit any TESS application."},"comment":{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/huntallcott/Lotteries/issues/comments/393310343","html_url":"https://github.com/huntallcott/Lotteries/issues/3#issuecomment-393310343","issue_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/huntallcott/Lotteries/issues/3","id":393310343,"node_id":"MDEyOklzc3VlQ29tbWVudDM5MzMxMDM0Mw==","user":{"login":"bblockwood","id":956485,"node_id":"MDQ6VXNlcjk1NjQ4NQ==","avatar_url":"https://avatars3.githubusercontent.com/u/956485?v=4","gravatar_id":"","url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood","html_url":"https://github.com/bblockwood","followers_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/followers","following_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/following{/other_user}","gists_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/gists{/gist_id}","starred_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/starred{/owner}{/repo}","subscriptions_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/subscriptions","organizations_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/orgs","repos_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/repos","events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/events{/privacy}","received_events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/bblockwood/received_events","type":"User","site_admin":false},"created_at":"2018-05-30T20:37:06Z","updated_at":"2018-05-30T20:37:06Z","author_association":"COLLABORATOR","body":"Thanks @huntallcott. A couple of thoughts:\r\n\r\n1. On the informational intervention, a key piece will be how to frame the probability information in a way that plausibly debiases people. What do we think of the \"ant on the football field\" example? Relatedly, it would be nice to have a sense of what respondents' priors are before the intervention. (That could be elicited using the same illustration, e.g., \"what's the area X such that you're as likely to stab the ant on X as to win the lottery?\" I don't love that illustration, but it's the idea.)\r\n2. When I first heard about these remote lotto play services, they struck me as extremely sketchy. (How can you be sure they'll pay you the winnings?) After reading more about them, I don't think that's as big a concern, but I'd still wonder if respondents would be too suspicious for this to work well. \r\n3. What about running this as a lab experiment? With scratch tickets in particular, where the \"scratching\" is part of the experience, that might be helpful. There's a behavioral lab at Wharton where we could potentially do this, though I think it has to be reserved quite a while in advance. "}}
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