{"action":"created","issue":{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero/issues/1658","repository_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero","labels_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero/issues/1658/labels{/name}","comments_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero/issues/1658/comments","events_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero/issues/1658/events","html_url":"https://github.com/gcp/leela-zero/issues/1658","id":344891176,"node_id":"MDU6SXNzdWUzNDQ4OTExNzY=","number":1658,"title":"What's the ELO increase when doubling the simulations?","user":{"login":"zhanzhenzhen","id":731796,"node_id":"MDQ6VXNlcjczMTc5Ng==","avatar_url":"https://avatars3.githubusercontent.com/u/731796?v=4","gravatar_id":"","url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen","html_url":"https://github.com/zhanzhenzhen","followers_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/followers","following_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/following{/other_user}","gists_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/gists{/gist_id}","starred_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/starred{/owner}{/repo}","subscriptions_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/subscriptions","organizations_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/orgs","repos_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/repos","events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/events{/privacy}","received_events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zhanzhenzhen/received_events","type":"User","site_admin":false},"labels":[{"id":729737326,"node_id":"MDU6TGFiZWw3Mjk3MzczMjY=","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero/labels/question","name":"question","color":"cc317c","default":true}],"state":"open","locked":false,"assignee":null,"assignees":[],"milestone":null,"comments":8,"created_at":"2018-07-26T15:22:29Z","updated_at":"2018-07-27T08:47:56Z","closed_at":null,"author_association":"NONE","body":"Yuandong Tian seems to have said that doubling simulations cause an ELO increase of 40? But I can't find where he said this now.\r\n\r\nAlso, I want to know, when doubling from 1 to 2 and doubling from 12800 to 25600, is the ELO increase the same?\r\n\r\nBecause from the AZ paper, the raw NN's ELO is 3000, while the ELO using 1600 simulations is above 5000. So I see the average increase of one doubling is far beyond 40?"},"comment":{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero/issues/comments/408354748","html_url":"https://github.com/gcp/leela-zero/issues/1658#issuecomment-408354748","issue_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/gcp/leela-zero/issues/1658","id":408354748,"node_id":"MDEyOklzc3VlQ29tbWVudDQwODM1NDc0OA==","user":{"login":"Crazyeight101","id":40058131,"node_id":"MDQ6VXNlcjQwMDU4MTMx","avatar_url":"https://avatars3.githubusercontent.com/u/40058131?v=4","gravatar_id":"","url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101","html_url":"https://github.com/Crazyeight101","followers_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/followers","following_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/following{/other_user}","gists_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/gists{/gist_id}","starred_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/starred{/owner}{/repo}","subscriptions_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/subscriptions","organizations_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/orgs","repos_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/repos","events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/events{/privacy}","received_events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/Crazyeight101/received_events","type":"User","site_admin":false},"created_at":"2018-07-27T08:47:56Z","updated_at":"2018-07-27T08:47:56Z","author_association":"NONE","body":"@TFiFiE @Friday9i from my personal experience, there's a large drop off after you reach 250k+ visits, and there's virtually no difference going from 1M to 2M visits or 2M to 4M visits per move.  I haven't bothered going above 4M visits per move, as that takes about 20 minutes per move on my hardware.\r\n\r\nI've noticed that in many positions, no matter how many visits you allow LZ against ELF, LZ will never properly consider ELF's move choices, and will inevitably lose despite estimating its own win rate at above 50%.  I don't really find this result surprising or unexpected, as not only is it a very intuitive conclusion, but my own experience playing against LZ at high visits confirms the exact same thing.\r\n\r\nI just wanted to make the point that while increasing the number of visits ad infinitum seems to very often have a benefit in self-play, there are many cases where it has little or no benefit against other opponents."}}
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