{"action":"created","issue":{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/5","repository_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation","labels_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/5/labels{/name}","comments_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/5/comments","events_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/5/events","html_url":"https://github.com/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/5","id":145844460,"number":5,"title":"Encounter probability should be proportional to to raccoon prevalence","user":{"login":"mqwilber","id":1399446,"avatar_url":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/1399446?v=3","gravatar_id":"","url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber","html_url":"https://github.com/mqwilber","followers_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/followers","following_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/following{/other_user}","gists_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/gists{/gist_id}","starred_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/starred{/owner}{/repo}","subscriptions_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/subscriptions","organizations_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/orgs","repos_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/repos","events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/events{/privacy}","received_events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/mqwilber/received_events","type":"User","site_admin":false},"labels":[{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/labels/enhancement","name":"enhancement","color":"84b6eb"}],"state":"open","locked":false,"assignee":null,"milestone":null,"comments":2,"created_at":"2016-04-05T00:38:38Z","updated_at":"2016-04-13T04:12:13Z","closed_at":null,"body":"Something like\r\n\r\n```{r}\r\nencounter_prob = num_racs_w_worms / tot_racs_alive\r\n```\r\n\r\nThis will allow the encounter prob to more realistically vary with prevalence"},"comment":{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/comments/209218409","html_url":"https://github.com/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/5#issuecomment-209218409","issue_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/mqwilber/raccoon_simulation/issues/5","id":209218409,"user":{"login":"zanyzooks","id":5728620,"avatar_url":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/5728620?v=3","gravatar_id":"","url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks","html_url":"https://github.com/zanyzooks","followers_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/followers","following_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/following{/other_user}","gists_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/gists{/gist_id}","starred_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/starred{/owner}{/repo}","subscriptions_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/subscriptions","organizations_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/orgs","repos_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/repos","events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/events{/privacy}","received_events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/zanyzooks/received_events","type":"User","site_admin":false},"created_at":"2016-04-13T04:12:13Z","updated_at":"2016-04-13T04:12:13Z","body":"we now keep track of the prevalence at each time point.  if we assume that eggs decay in the environment as an exponential function we can then have encounter_prob = Sum of the prevalence*decay for each time point.  If these sum to greater than one the environment is \"saturated\" with eggs and encounter prob is set to one.  This doesn't fix the problem when we start with a population at all zeros, but maybe instead we just start of with a partially infected raccoon population?\r\nWe might also want to keep track of this egg decay when we think about human risk.  Because risk isn't just from the eggs produced right now, any that remain in the environment are also a risk "}}