having reached only about 592,000. the total of 600,000 was reached two weeks later. in mid-september 2021, when the death toll had already reached 670,000, the ihme projected that the death toll would reach 775,000 by the end of the year. that number was reached by the end of november 2021. on january 12, 2022, when the death toll had already reached 842,000, a cdc ensemble forecast predicted that 62,000 people would die over the next four weeks. at the start of january 2023, when the us death toll had accumulated to over 1,120,000, the ihme projects that the death toll will reach 1,130,000 by april 1. comparisons epidemics of similar size (the number is the u.s. death toll): hiv/aids in the united states: 700,000 as of 2018 1918 spanish flu: 675,000 other large epidemics: 1957–1958 influenza pandemic: 116,000 1968 hong kong flu: 100,000