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Q: WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of U.S. workers who filed new applications for unemployment benefits dropped sharply, by 30,000, last week to 339,000, the lowest level in more than four years, the Labor Department reported Thursday in what may have been the result of a statistical fluke. 
  
 Reuters A counselor meets with job candidates during a job fair in September at Workforce1 in New York. 
  
 Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial claims in the week of Oct. 6 to rise 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000. Last week’s number was revised up by 2,000 to 369,000. 
  
 The four-week average of new claims, meanwhile, dropped 11,500 to 364,000, the lowest level since late March. The moving average is considered a more accurate barometer of employment trends because it smooths out quirks in the weekly data. 
  
 Today’s data seemingly fit with the improvement in the labor market seen in the latest monthly jobs report, issued last Friday. The U.S. added 114,000 net jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell below 8% for the first time since President Barack Obama took office. Read more on payrolls report. 
  
 “Maybe the unemployment rate drop wasn’t a fluke?” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. 
  
 Still, analysts were cautious about reading too much into one week’s report. They noted that seasonal adjustment factors tend to be positive at the start of a quarter. 
  
 A Department of Labor analyst said that a single large state was responsible for most of the drop in claims. 
  
 “This suggests that the plunge in seasonally adjusted claims likely overstates some recent labor market progress, though we continue to note that trends in claims are looking more positive,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest rate strategist at TD Securities. 
  
 Added Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities: “The formula for the size of a claimant’s benefit check is derived based on an average of their last few quarters of pay (the more you were earning before being laid off, the bigger your unemployment check would be). Thus, in many cases, it pays for a laid-off worker to game the formula by waiting until the beginning of the next calendar quarter to file (if they can wait that long), as they may have been getting paid more in the quarter when they were laid off than in the quarter that rolls out of the equation if they wait.” 
  
 “As a result, there is an accumulation of claims that are likely submitted over a period of several weeks but not processed until the turn of the quarter. Apparently, the state in question (and it pretty much has to be California to account for anything close to 30,000) forgot to include that stockpile of unprocessed claims in their tally for this week (which is the first week of a new calendar quarter). Since the seasonal factors expected an unadjusted surge of almost 20% in the period to account for the quarterly filing pattern, failure to adhere to that pattern in the raw data (unadjusted claims were only up 8.6%) creates a big drop seasonally adjusted.” 
  
 U.S. stocks SPX, -0.69% were stronger Thursday after the report. Read Market Snapshot. 
  
 In the week of Sept. 29, the number of people who continued to receive benefits under state unemployment programs declined 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.27 million. The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 7,750 to 3.28 million. 
  
 About 5 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week ended Sept. 22, down 43,970 from the prior week. Total claims are reported with a two-week lag. There were 6.8 million people receiving benefits in the same week in 2011. 
  
 In a separate report, the government said that the trade gap widened in August to $44.2 billion as exports declined for the third straight month. Read trade story. 
  
 More from MarketWatch ||||| UPDATE: A source explained to us exactly what happened and which state accounted for the plunge. Read more here. 
  
  
  
 Earlier this morning, the Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims plunged to 339K from 369K a week ago. 
  
 Economists were looking for a reading of 370k. 
  
 Immediately, Twitter exploded with tweets mocking Jack Welch, who claimed last week's jobs report was fixed to artificially drop the September unemployment rate to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent in August. 
  
 Coincidentally, cryptic messages came through from Bloomberg and the WSJ that raised doubts about today's report. From Bloomberg: 
  
 One state accounted for most of the plunge in claims, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were issued to the press. 
  
 And from the WSJ: 
  
 "However, the report may not be as positive as the sharp drop indicates. A Labor Department economist said one large state didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease." 
  
 Initially, rumors started circulating that an entire state's worth of jobless claims was excluded. 
  
 The DoL was not immediately available to comment. 
  
 However, CNBC's Kelly Evans is reporting that the discrepancy is that "one state did not process & report its typical seasonal workload" and that a rebound next week is likely. 
  
 We will update as we get more details. 
  
 <div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div> ||||| Dow Jones Reprints: This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers, use the Order Reprints tool at the bottom of any article or visit www.djreprints.com ||||| The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted last week to seasonally adjusted 339,000, the lowest level in more than four years. The sharp drop offered a hopeful sign that the job market could pick up. 
  
 In this Friday Sept. 28, 2012, photo, a group of veterans listen during a session with one of the employers at a job fair introducing veterans to careers in the security and private investigations industry... (Associated Press) 
  
 The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications fell by 30,000 to the fewest since February 2008. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped by 11,500 to 364,000, a six-month low. 
  
 The positive figures follow a report last week that said the unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8 percent. It was the first time since January 2009 that the rate dropped below 8 percent. 
  
 A Labor Department spokesman cautioned that the weekly applications can be volatile, particularly at the start of a quarter. And the spokesman said one large state accounted for much of the decline. The spokesman did not name the state. 
  
 Unemployment benefit applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they consistently drop below 375,000, it suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate. 
  
 Some economists said they want to see more data before suggesting the job market is turning around. 
  
 "Should this level hold for another week, it would flag a meaningful improvement in October" hiring, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a note to clients. 
  
 Dan Greenhaus, chief market strategist at BTIG LLC, is also reserving judgment. "Are things that much better all of a sudden? Perhaps. We're going to wait for some corroborating data." 
  
 The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits also fell, the Labor Department said. A little more than 5 million Americans received benefits in the week ending Sept. 22, the latest data available. That's down about 44,000 from the previous week. 
  
 Last week's report noted that the unemployment rate declined to 7.8 percent in September from 8.1 percent in August because a government survey of households found that 873,000 more people had jobs. It was the biggest jump in nearly 10 years, although it was largely because of an increase in part-time employment. 
  
 Still, a separate survey of businesses showed that employers added only 114,000 jobs in September. That's generally enough to keep pace with population growth but not enough to rapidly bring relief to more than 12 million who are unemployed. 
  
 Hiring over the summer was stronger than previously estimated. The economy gained an average of 146,000 jobs a month in the July-September quarter. That's more than double the monthly pace in the April-June quarter. 
  
 Another report Wednesday suggested hiring will likely remain modest. Employers posted slightly fewer open jobs in August compared with July, the Labor Department said. It was the second straight monthly drop and the fewest openings since April. 
  
 A key problem is the economy is not growing fast enough to generate much hiring. Growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, down from 2 percent in the previous quarter. Most economists see growth staying at or below 2 percent in the second half of the year. |||||
A:
Jobless claims plunged to 339,000 this week, putting them at a four-and-a-half-year low and drastically lower than the 370,000 economists expected, the Labor Department announced today. But there was a fly in the ointment. A department spokesperson said that one large state accounted for a large portion of the decline, the AP reports. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that the state "didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected." (MarketWatch thinks it has to be California.) A CNBC correspondent later tweeted that the state appears to have failed to process "its typical seasonal workload," Business Insider reports. Weekly job numbers are prone to volatility anyway, the department noted. "Throw out the number and we'll try again next week," one trader tells CNBC. Numbers overall are headed in a good direction—the more stable four-week average fell to 364,000; anything below 375,000 is considered a sign the economy is adding jobs. Of course, it's probably a matter of time before Jack Welch says the missing state weirdness is a sign of White House book-cooking.