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Coin-Toss Fact-Check: No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton 
  
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Patrick Semansky/AP Patrick Semansky/AP 
  
 Hillary Clinton got lucky Monday night. Very lucky. 
  
 But not for the reasons some are alleging. 
  
 Some have attributed her squeaker of a victory over Bernie Sanders in the Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses to an improbable lucky streak of tiebreaking coin tosses. 
  
 Sports Luck Of The Flip: New England Patriots Defy Probability With Coin Toss Wins Luck Of The Flip: New England Patriots Defy Probability With Coin Toss Wins Listen · 1:27 1:27 
  
 It's been reported that there were as many as six sites where ties were decided by the flip of a coin — and Clinton won every single one. The odds of that happening are 1 in 64, or less than 2 percent. What's more, that gave her just slightly more than her margin of victory over Sanders — four delegates. 
  
 Things that make you go hmm. Indeed. 
  
 Here's proof: Watch one of these coin-toss tiebreakers in this video, taken by Univision reporter Fernando Peinado at a caucus precinct: 
  
 Except that doesn't tell the whole story. In fact, there were at least a dozen tiebreakers — and "Sen. Sanders won at least a handful," an Iowa Democratic Party official told NPR. 
  
 Gone unmentioned so far is that even if Clinton won that Miracle Six — and there were no other coin tosses — it would make little difference in the outcome. That is, in part, because of the complicated way Iowa Democrats allocate their delegates — and what was being reported on election night and what wasn't. 
  
 Enlarge this image Domenico Montanaro and Meg Kelly/NPR/NPR Domenico Montanaro and Meg Kelly/NPR/NPR 
  
 Let's step back and explain that for a second; and this is tricky, so stay with us. 
  
 First, understand that the state party reported a grand total of 171,508 caucusgoers, the second-highest turnout in Iowa caucus history behind 2008. And no raw vote was — or is ever — broken out by candidate and recorded at the Democratic caucuses. 
  
 That's because in Iowa, it's a delegate game. 
  
 Iowa has a multistep process for picking delegates. Monday night was just Step 1. Here's how it works: 
  
 1. There were 1,683 precinct caucuses on Iowa caucus night. 
  
 2. Those precinct caucuses elected 11,065 delegates to the county conventions, which take place March 12. 
  
 3. That universe of 11,065 delegates is whittled down to 1,406 who will attend congressional district (April 30) and state conventions (June 18). 
  
 4. And here's the root of what's causing all the confusion: The breakdown of those 11,065 is not reported on caucus night. 
  
 5. What IS reported, what Clinton's 49.9 to 49.6 percent tracing-paper-thin lead is based on, is "state delegate equivalents." 
  
 6. Those are ESTIMATES of how many of those 11,065 will attend the congressional district and state conventions. 
  
 So ... when those coin tosses are happening, they are elected delegates in that larger universe. 
  
 That means, for Clinton to have picked up the four delegates, she would have had to have won not six in a row, but more like 47. 
  
 A coin flip? Really? 
  
 Yes, Iowa — and it's not alone — uses coin tosses to break ties in precincts that award an odd number of delegates. 
  
 For example: Let's say five delegates are set to be awarded in Precinct 1. There are 30 people for Clinton and 30 people for Sanders — and no one on either side can be swayed. 
  
 The result: Clinton and Sanders get two delegates apiece. What happens to the final delegate? The caucuses revert to, you guessed, it, a coin toss. 
  
 Does this happen often? 
  
 It's pretty rare in a normal race, but this was no normal race. Clinton and Sanders were separated by a razor-thin 0.3 percentage point, or four "state delegate equivalents" — 701 for Clinton, 697 for Sanders and eight for Martin O'Malley. It was the closest result in 40 years of the Iowa Democratic caucus. 
  
 What was that about 60 missing caucusgoers and a coin flip? 
  
 As NPR's Jessica Taylor reports, the Des Moines Register explained how a tie happened at one precinct: After 60 registered caucusgoers were missing since the initial tally, and O'Malley's supporters had been redistributed, Clinton was assigned four delegates and Sanders got three. But one remained unassigned based on the initial count: 
  
 "Unable to account for that numerical discrepancy and the orphan delegate it produced, the Sanders campaign challenged the results and precinct leaders called a Democratic Party hot line set up to advise on such situations. "Party officials recommended they settle the dispute with a coin toss. A Clinton supporter correctly called 'heads' on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate." 
  
 Could this happen again this year? 
  
 It's pretty unlikely, but not impossible. Again, as Taylor reports, seemingly unusual tiebreak methods are not new in politics. According to the National Council of State Legislatures, Wyoming uses coin tosses to break ties. Last year in Mississippi, the winner of a seat in the state Legislature was determined by drawing straws. 
  
 Brett Neely also contributed to this report. ||||| Updated at 5:32 p.m. Eastern on February 2, 2016 
  
 The Democratic caucuses in Iowa on Monday were so close that more than a dozen delegates were awarded based on coin flips. 
  
 How many is not exactly clear—the state party doesn’t track all the games of chance that occur as part of the complex process for divvying up delegates at hundreds of caucus sites across the state. But despite initial reports that Hillary Clinton had improbably run the table, it appears that Bernie Sanders won a sizable share of coin tosses as well, according to information provided on Tuesday by the state Democratic Party. 
  
 Delegates to the Democratic National Convention are the main prize of any caucus or primary, and the percentage of the vote in each of 1,681 Iowa precincts is used to determine how many delegates each candidate earns. Yet because these percentages are often messy, the Democratic rules call for precinct chairmen to use games of chance—coin flips—when the delegates can’t be determined simply by rounding up or down. (A photo of the relevant section was tweeted by Univision’s Fernando Peinado.) 
  
 Games of chance have been included in the Democratic caucus rules “forever,” said Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the state party who oversaw the nominating contests in 2008 and 2012. “It happens, but it’s not frequent,” he said in an interview on Tuesday afternoon. They usually occur when calculations for electing delegates to the county convention result in an extra delegate that can’t be assigned to one candidate by rounding. The county delegates are distinct from the “state delegation equivalents,” which is what the party uses to determine how many delegates each candidates secures for the national convention in Philadelphia. Clinton finished with 700.59 state delegate equivalents to 696.82 for Sanders, yet because county delegates are worth a “tiny fraction” of the state delegates, Sterzenbach said he could say “with absolute certainty” that the coin flips did not determine the outcome in Iowa. |||||
Output:
Lots of headlines floating around Tuesday suggested that Hillary Clinton eked out her win in Iowa thanks to coin flips. Not so much, explains NPR. For starters, contrary to initial reports that Clinton had gone a remarkable 6-for-6, it turns out there were several more flips involved, and Sanders won his fair share of them, reports CNN. But the larger issue is that these coin tosses had very little impact on the bottom-line result of Clinton being the winner, say current and former elections officials. That's thanks to the complex formula used in Iowa to pick a winner via delegates: The ones decided by the coin flips were county delegates, who make up just a fraction of the state delegates who decide the outcome. One former election official tells the Atlantic "with absolute certainty" that the coin tosses didn't mean much in the grand scheme of things—they just drew a lot of attention given how close the race was. The reason for the confusion over the total number of flips? Some county officials used the party smartphone app to report results, and some didn't, reports the Des Moines Register. The app makes clear when a coin toss was involved, and of the seven reported via the app, Sanders won six, including one against Martin O'Malley. Other coin tosses surfaced on social media, including this one that went in Clinton's favor. The toss comes into play only when a caucus vote ends in a tie. NPR goes into the most detail on how the process of "state delegate equivalents" works here.