Detailed Instructions: In this task, you are given a text of many news articles seperated by special token "|||||". Your task is to summarize them.
Q: FILE - In this July 17, 2012 file photo, a firefighter waits his at left turn as another cools off on a fire hose after helping extricate a car that fell down an elevator shaft at a garage in in 90 degree... (Associated Press) 
  
 FILE - In this July 17, 2012 file photo, a firefighter waits his at left turn as another cools off on a fire hose after helping extricate a car that fell down an elevator shaft at a garage in in 90 degree... (Associated Press) 
  
 WASHINGTON (AP) — Meteorologists may soon be able to predict likelihood of extreme heat in the Eastern United States as much as 50 days in advance, according to a new study. 
  
 A team of scientists looking for links between heat waves and the water temperatures in the north central Pacific found a correlation strong enough they said it could be used to make "skillful prediction" of extra warm and dry weather about seven weeks before the temperatures rise. And they will start trying to forecast Eastern heat waves starting in May, said National Center for Atmospheric Research climate scientist Karen McKinnon, lead author of a study published Monday in Nature Geoscience. 
  
 Such warnings can help farmers, utilities and big cities prepare for periods when they'll need more irrigation, more electrical power generation, and more cooling centers for the poor and elderly, experts said. 
  
 "There are many possible health, economic and other impacts of these hot temperatures and advanced warning can only help," said Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Arizona, who wasn't part of the study but praised it. 
  
 The team is looking at Eastern U.S. temperatures when at least 80 weather stations are at least 11.7 degrees warmer than normal for that day — basically, the top 15 percent of warmest summer peak temperatures going back to 1982. 
  
 The key is a large area in the Pacific north of Hawaii (which is not where El Nino forms). When the southern part of the region is unusually warm and the northeast of that region is unusually cold, the conditions are what McKinnon and colleagues call the Pacific Extreme Pattern. They looked at that pattern in summers from 1982 through 2015 and found that when they saw the most glaring PEP signal, the odds of a heat wave increase to one in four at 50 days out. By 40 days out, the odds have increased to one in two. 
  
 What's likely happening is a train of waves moving from the PEP region to the United States with high pressure systems parked over the Eastern United States. High pressure systems in summer usually bring clear, dry and warm weather. 
  
 The scientists concentrated on the East — basically east of the Mississippi River, plus Iowa and minus Florida — because heat waves tend to hit the region as a whole, and that's an area where high heat and little rain have consequences for farming and for a large population. The team also only looked at the peak 60 days in summer, which in a leap year like 2016 run from June 23 to Aug. 21. 
  
 "The physical mechanisms underpinning the results of their study make sense," said Victor Gensini at the College of DuPage, who is working on long-range tornado forecasting but wasn't part of this team. "It is exciting that there is some skill demonstrated as far out as 50 days as this also gives us hope for linkages to other extreme weather events." 
  
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 Online: 
  
 Nature Geoscience: http://www.nature.com/ngeo 
  
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 Follow Seth Borenstein at http://twitter.com/borenbears and his work can be found at http://bigstory.ap.org/content/seth-borenstein ||||| Scientists have just discovered a bizarre pattern in global weather. Extreme heat waves like the one that hit the Eastern US in 2012, leaving at least 82 dead, don't just come out of nowhere. A new study, published today in Nature Geoscience, reveals that heat waves arise in a predictable pattern roughly 40 to 50 days after an event called the Pacific Extreme Pattern. 
  
 During a Pacific Extreme Pattern, a large area of the Pacific north of Hawaii experiences unusual temperatures both at the water's surface and far above it in the atmosphere. Specifically, the southern part of the region gets far hotter than is typical, and the northeastern part of the region gets much colder. These unusual temperature patterns create a wave of weather effects that sweep over most of the US, then stop over the humid inland eastern region, creating a high pressure zone that brings clear skies and oppressive heat. The effect is intensified if there has been little rain in the east as well. 
  
 The researchers examined weather data from sensors in both the Pacific and throughout the Eastern US between 1982 to 2015, finding that the Pacific Extreme Pattern was a strong predictor of heat waves. When the pattern emerges, there is a 1 in 4 chance that the Eastern US will experience extreme heat in 50 days. There's a 1 in 2 chance that they'll experience it in 40 days. Given that the Eastern US has a high population as well as many agricultural regions that are breadbaskets for the nation, this kind of long-range prediction could be lifesaving. 
  
 What's remarkable about this study is that it might pave the way for other kinds of extreme weather prediction as well. 
  
 Tornado forecasting researcher Victor Gensini, who was not involved in the study, told the Associated Press: 
  
 The physical mechanisms underpinning the results of their study make sense. It is exciting that there is some skill demonstrated as far out as 50 days as this also gives us hope for linkages to other extreme weather events. 
  
 The authors of the study emphasize that the heat waves are a combination of heat in the Pacific with low rain in the east. They write, "The results presented here link two previously identified precursors to hot days—precipitation deficits and an anomalous atmospheric wave train—with the occurrence of [Pacific Extreme Pattern]." That's one train you don't want to be riding when summer comes. Now, at least, you may have seven weeks to prepare for it. 
  
 Nature Geoscience, 2016. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2687 ||||| BOULDER — The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern half of the United States up to 50 days in advance, according to a new study led by a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). 
  
 The pattern is a contrast of warmer-than-average water butting up against cooler-than-average seas. When it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week—or even on a particular day—can more than triple, depending on how well-formed the pattern is. 
  
 The research is being published in the journal Nature Geoscience. 
  
 "Summertime heat waves are among the deadliest weather events, and they can have big impacts on farming, energy use, and other critical aspects of society," said Karen McKinnon, a postdoctoral researcher at NCAR and the lead author of the study. "If we can give city planners and farmers a heads up that extreme heat is on the way, we might be able to avoid some of the worst consequences." 
  
 The research was largely funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor. In addition to McKinnon, the research team includes Andrew Rhines, of the University of Washington; Martin Tingley, of Pennsylvania State University; and Peter Huybers, of Harvard University. 
  
 A fingerprint on the ocean 
  
 For the study, the scientists divided the country into regions that tend to experience extreme heat at the same time. The scientists then focused on the largest of the resulting blocks: a swath that stretches across much of the Midwest and up the East Coast, encompassing both important agricultural areas and heavily populated cities. 
  
 Top: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the mid-latitude Pacific 50 days in advance of June 29, 2012. The pattern inside the green box resembled the Pacific Extreme Pattern, indicating that there would be an increase in the odds of a heat wave in the eastern half of the United States at the end of June. (Image courtesy of Karen McKinnon, NCAR. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use .) Bottom: June 29, 2012, was the hottest day of the year in the eastern United States. The hot temperatures in late June and early July were part of an extraordinarily hot summer that saw three heat waves strike the country. (Map courtesy of the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center.) 
  
 The research team looked to see if there was a relationship between global sea surface temperature anomalies—waters that are warmer or cooler than average—and extreme heat in the eastern half of the U.S. 
  
 Right away, a pattern popped out in the middle of the Pacific, above about 20 degrees North latitude. The scientists found that the particular configuration of ocean water temperatures, which they named the Pacific Extreme Pattern, was not only found when it was already hot in the eastern U.S., but that it tended to form in advance of that heat. 
  
 "Whatever mechanisms ultimately leads to the heat wave also leaves a fingerprint of sea surface temperature anomalies behind," McKinnon said. 
  
 Improving seasonal forecasts 
  
 To test how well that fingerprint could predict future heat, the scientists used data collected from 1,613 weather stations across the eastern U.S. between 1982 and 2015, as well as daily sea surface temperatures for the same time period. 
  
 The scientists defined extreme heat in the eastern U.S. as a summertime day when the temperature readings from the warmest 5 percent of weather stations in the region were at least 6.5 degrees Celsius (11.7 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than average. The scientists only looked at extreme heat during that region’s 60 hottest days of the year: June 24 through Aug. 22. 
  
 The researchers "hindcasted" each year in the dataset to see if they could retrospectively predict extreme heat events—or lack of those events—during that year's summer, using only data collected during the other years as a guide. 
  
 At 50 days out, the scientists were able to predict an increase in the odds—from about 1 in 6 to about 1 in 4—that a heat wave would strike somewhere in the eastern U.S. during a given week. At 30 days out or closer, the scientists were able to predict an increase in the odds—to better than 1 in 2 for a particularly well-formed pattern—that a heat wave would strike on a particular day. 
  
 This new technique could improve existing seasonal forecasts, which do not focus on predicting daily extremes. Seasonal forecasts typically predict whether an entire summer is expected to be warmer than normal, normal, or cooler than normal. 
  
 For example, the seasonal forecast issued for the summer of 2012 predicted normal heat for the Northeast and Midwest. But, the summer ended up being especially hot, thanks to three major heat waves that struck in late June, mid-July, and late July. 
  
 When the science team used the Pacific Extreme Pattern to hindcast 2012, they were able to determine as early as mid-May that there were increased odds of extremely hot days occurring in late June. The hottest day of the summer of 2012, as measured by the technique used for this study, was June 29, when the warmest 5 percent of weather stations recorded temperatures that were 10.4 degrees Celsius (18.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. 
  
 "We found that we could go back as far as seven weeks and still predict an increase in the odds of future heat waves," McKinnon said. “What’s exciting about this is the potential for long-range predictions of individual heat waves that gives society far more notice than current forecasts.” 
  
 Looking ahead 
  
 Scientists do not yet know why the fingerprint on sea surface temperatures in the Pacific predicts heat in the eastern U.S. It could be that the sea surface temperatures themselves kick off weather patterns that cause the heat. Or it could be that they are both different results of the same phenomenon, but one does not cause the other. 
  
 To learn more about how the two are connected, McKinnon is working with colleagues at NCAR to use sophisticated computer models to try and tease apart what is really happening. 
  
 The study's findings also point toward the possibility that the Pacific Extreme Pattern, or a different oceanic fingerprint, could be used to forecast other weather events far in advance, including cooler-than-average days and extreme rainfall events. 
  
 “The results suggest that the state of the mid-latitude ocean may be a previously overlooked source of predictability for summer weather,” McKinnon said. 
  
 About the article 
  
 Title: Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures 
  
 Authors: Karen McKinnon, Andrew Rhines, Martin Tingley, and Peter Huybers 
  
 Journal: Nature Geoscience 
  
 Writer: 
  
 Laura Snider, senior science writer and public information officer |||||
A:
Meteorologists might be able to predict heat waves on the East Coast up to 50 days in advance by keeping an eye on ocean temperatures far, far away. Scientists writing in Nature Geoscience say they've picked up on a connection: When a particular weather event known as the Pacific Extreme Pattern shows up north of Hawaii, it triggers a chain of events that results in oppressive heat in the East in the not-too-distant future, reports Ars Technica. The researchers noticed the pattern after crunching data from US weather stations going back to 1982, along with corresponding sea surface temperatures. The PEP occurs in a particular region near Hawaii when colder-than-normal water meets warmer-than-normal water, and its presence means that the risk of a heat wave on the East Coast can triple, the scientists write in a news release. "We found that we could go back as far as seven weeks and still predict an increase in the odds of future heat waves," says researcher Karen McKinnon of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "What's exciting about this is the potential for long-range predictions of individual heat waves that gives society far more notice than current forecasts." They plan to start using the data to forecast heat waves in May, reports AP. Ideally, cities would be better able to prepare for potentially deadly stretches, like a particularly brutal one in 2012. What's more, scientists hope to use the insight to find more patterns that can predict other extreme weather events. (This might have been the weirdest weather moment of 2015.)