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Race takes another turn as Santorum gains 14 points since winning Feb. 7 GOP contests 
  
 PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are now statistically tied for the lead in Republican registered voters' preferences for the 2012 GOP nomination -- 32% to 30%, respectively. Newt Gingrich, who led the field as recently as late January, is now third, favored by 16%, while Ron Paul's support has dwindled to 8%, the lowest level yet seen for him in 2012. 
  
 These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking from Feb. 8-12 -- the first Gallup tracking period conducted wholly after Santorum's sweep of the Feb. 7 state nominating contests. 
  
 Santorum's 14-point surge in support since just before Feb. 7, from 16% to 30%, appears to have come at the expense of all of his major opponents. Support for Romney and Gingrich has declined by five and six percentage points, respectively, over the same period, and support for Paul, by three points. The percentage unsure has increased slightly, from 11% to 13%. 
  
 Santorum's Wins Spur Robust Bounce 
  
 Santorum's surge coming off of his wins in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota is not unusual, given the volatility already seen in national Republican preferences. However, the magnitude of his 14-point gain over the five-day periods bracketing the Feb. 7 contests is the largest post-primary/caucus bounce Gallup has recorded since the primary season began. 
  
 By contrast, Romney's support grew by six points in the first five days after his apparent win in the Iowa caucuses -- with state election officials revising the results and declaring Santorum the winner a few weeks later. Santorum's support also swelled, by 12 points -- from 6% to 18% -- within the first week after he purportedly placed second in Iowa. 
  
 Romney then enjoyed a seven-point gain after winning the New Hampshire primary. Gingrich gained nine points after winning the South Carolina primary, building on a 10-point gain he made in the period between New Hampshire and South Carolina. Romney then recovered by 10 points after his decisive victory in Florida. 
  
 It is too soon to say whether Romney's slim victory in Saturday's Maine caucuses (or his important symbolic victory in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll the same day) will advance his support, thereby stalling or reversing some of Santorum's recent gains. 
  
 Bottom Line 
  
 Gallup Daily tracking conducted in the days after Santorum's sweep of three little-anticipated nominating contests last week shows national Republicans responding as they have each time there has been a big win or an upset in the caucuses and primaries thus far -- by jumping on the winner's bandwagon. Romney's win in Nevada on Feb. 4 represents the only exception to that, possibly because it was so closely followed by Santorum's victories on Feb. 7. 
  
 As a result, Santorum is now roughly tied with Romney for the lead, Gingrich has been relegated to third, and Paul is in a weakened fourth position. How long this scenario will last is anyone's guess, but will likely be dictated by the outcome of the next round of primaries at the end of February, in Arizona and Michigan. 
  
 Track every angle of the presidential race on Gallup.com's Election 2012 page. 
  
 Sign up to get Election 2012 news stories from Gallup as soon as they are published. ||||| Santorum Catches Romney in GOP Race 
  
 Obama Leads Both in General Election Matchups 
  
 Overview 
  
 Rick Santorum’s support among Tea Party Republicans and white evangelicals is surging, and he now has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. In polling conducted Feb. 8-12, 30% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters favor Santorum while 28% favor Romney. As recently as a month ago, Romney held a 31% to 14% advantage over Santorum among all GOP voters. 
  
 Santorum is now the clear favorite of Republican and GOP-leaning voters who agree with the Tea Party, as well as white evangelical Republicans. Currently, 42% of Tea Party Republican voters favor Santorum, compared with just 23% who back Romney. Santorum holds an almost identical advantage among white evangelical Republican voters (41% to 23%). 
  
 The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 8-12 among 1,501 adults, including 1172 registered voters and 552 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, finds that Barack Obama holds sizable leads over Santorum, Romney and Newt Gingrich in general election match-ups. 
  
 Obama leads Santorum by 10 points among all registered voters (53% to 43%) and his lead over Romney is nearly as large (52% to 44%). Romney ran about even with Obama in November and mid-January. Obama has a larger advantage over Newt Gingrich than over Santorum or Romney: Obama leads the former House speaker by 18 points (57% to 39%). Obama has made gains among independent voters. Today, 51% of independents favor Obama in a matchup against Romney, up from 40% a month ago. (View detailed tables to see a full demographic breakdown of Obama-Romney and Obama-Santorum matchups). 
  
 Romney Trailing among GOP Conservatives 
  
 In the early GOP primaries, Romney has struggled at times in winning over the conservative elements of the Republican electorate – Tea Party supporters, conservatives and white evangelical Republicans. The new poll shows that nationally he trails Santorum among all three groups. 
  
 In contrast, Romney holds leads over Santorum among non-Tea Party Republicans (34% to 19%) and moderate and liberal Republicans (34% to 20%). 
  
 While Santorum holds a substantial advantage over Romney among white evangelical Republicans, he also runs about even with Romney among white mainline Protestants (24% Santorum, 30% Romney). 
  
 Romney also trails Santorum among Republican and GOP-leaning voters who have not completed college (33% to 24%). Romney leads among Republican college graduates (39% to 25%). 
  
 More Doubts about Romney’s Conservatism, Consistency 
  
 Three months ago, a slim majority (53%) of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said Mitt Romney was a strong conservative. Today, 42% see him this way, while the number who say he is not a strong conservative has jumped from 33% to 50%. 
  
 This growing skepticism about Romney’s conservatism is most pronounced among Tea Party Republicans. Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters who agree with the Tea Party, just 29% say Romney is a strong conservative, down from 51% three months ago. Fully 68% of Tea Party Republicans say Romney is not a strong conservative. 
  
 Fewer Republican voters today think Romney has been consistent as well. By a 48% to 39% margin, more Republicans say Romney does not take consistent positions on the issues. In November, 47% felt he was consistent and just 33% said he was not. 
  
 By contrast, Romney has lost virtually no ground among Republican voters in evaluations of his qualifications and honesty. Roughly as many today as in November say that he is well-qualified to be president (69%) and that he is honest and trustworthy (64%). These were Romney’s strongest traits in November, and remain so today. 
  
 Obama Leads in General Election Matchup 
  
 Barack Obama now holds an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney in a general election matchup, and he has gained significant ground among independent voters. A month ago, 40% of independents said they would back Obama over Romney – today 51% say they would, while the number expressing support for Romney has slipped from 50% to 42%. 
  
 Over the course of the campaign, Romney’s image among independent voters has suffered substantially. Most notably, the number who believe he is honest and trustworthy has fallen from 53% to 41%, while the number who say he is not has risen from 32% to 45%. 
  
 And even on his qualifications for the office – Romney’s strong suit – he has lost ground among independents. In November, a 58% majority of independents said Romney was well-qualified to be president, while just 31% said he was not. Today, 48% say he is well qualified, while 41% say he is not. 
  
 Despite these problems, Romney runs slightly better against Barack Obama among independents than either of the other leading GOP candidates. Independent voters favor Barack Obama over Rick Santorum by a 54% to 40% margin, and favor Obama over Gingrich by a wide 58% to 34% margin. 
  
 GOP Voters Say Party Would Unite Behind Romney 
  
 While Romney has lost support in the GOP nomination contest, a majority (57%) of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that the party would unite solidly behind him if he wins the nomination. Roughly a third (32%) say disagreements within the party will keep many Republicans from supporting him. 
  
 In February 2008, following that year’s Super Tuesday contests, 58% of Republican voters said the party would unite behind John McCain. 
  
 A substantial majority (70%) of GOP voters who support Romney for the Republican nomination say the party would coalesce behind the former Massachusetts governor if he is the nominee. A smaller percentage (54%) of Santorum supporters express this view. 
  
 A majority of GOP voters (55%) also say that it is a good thing the race has not yet been decided. As might be expected, Santorum supporters are more likely than Romney backers to express this view (62% vs. 45%). 
  
 In the Democratic primary race four years ago, a comparable percentage (57%) of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters in February said it was good for the party that the race had not yet been decided. But that figure fell to 35% in April, as the Democratic primary contest continued. |||||
Output:
Three polls, three declarations about Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum: virtual tie, statistical tie, and essential tie. According to Pew, Gallup, and the New York Times/CBS News, Romney officially has some company at the top following Santorum's wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri: Pew's poll, released yesterday, puts Santorum at 30% to Romney's 28% among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters. Santorum easily captures the top spot among Tea Party Republican voters (42% to 23%) and evangelical Republican voters (41% to 23%). One bright spot for Romney: 70% of his supporters believe the GOP would back him if he becomes the nominee; only 54% of Santorum's supporters feel the same. Gallup's poll, also released yesterday, found that 32% of Republican registered voters preferred Romney, and 30% favor Santorum. That's a 14-point jump for Santorum in recent days, and Gallup notes that his rise came at the expense of every candidate: He grabbed five points from Romney, six from Newt Gingrich, and three from Ron Paul. Side note: Paul's support hit a 2012 low: 8%. The New York Times/CBS poll out today shows that 30% of GOP primary voters support Santorum, to Romney's 27%. But it's still anyone's game: Last month, 74% of voters who backed a candidate said they might still change their pick; that has dropped, but only to 60%.