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Q: The Virginia governor's race has been captivating  controversial and frequently cutting. Republican nominee Ed Gillespie  a long-time party operative and lobbyist  has dominated the campaign dialogue with a succession of racially tinged attacks on Democrat Ralph Northam  the lieutenant governor. Though Virginia has been trending Democratic  and final pre-election polls still show Northam leading  Gillespie's onslaught has shaken the soft-spoken Democratic nominee and unnerved party activists desperate to record their first big electoral win of the Trump presidency.
Given that surveys have consistently shown Trump's approval rating below 40% in both states   Gillespie  and Guadagno must replicate McAuliffe's equation to prevail: they will need to win a higher percentage among Trump approvers than they lose among disapprovers. The challenge is that in both states Trump's disapproval rating among voters is likely to be much higher than Obama's was in 2013  leaving the GOP nominees less room for error.
 Gillespie  has followed a distinctive strategy of keeping  his  distance from Trump personally (the President hasn't campaigned in the state) while embracing several of  his  key themes  for instance on immigration. If that allows  Gillespie  to suppress  his  deficit among voters who disapprove of Trump   he  may offer a roadmap to other Republicans running in places dubious of the President.
Population growth in Virginia since 2013 has continued to strengthen the groups and places where Democrats are strongest. But Democrats are nervous that  Gillespie  may inspire a turnout surge among Trump's core constituency of older  blue-collar and non-urban whites with  his  racially provocative campaign -- which has included a full-throated endorsement of preserving Confederate monuments and unrelenting attacks on "sanctuary cities" and the Central American gang MS-13.
Another critical dynamic in Virginia will be how much the Trump factor -- and  Gillespie 's turn toward Trump-like themes -- accelerates the shift in partisan allegiances between blue-collar and white-collar whites  what I've called the class inversion.
As in most states  Republicans now consistently post crushing advantages among Virginia whites without a college degree: Trump in 2016  Gillespie in his narrow 2014 Senate race defeat against Democrat Mark Warner  Cuccinelli in 2013  presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012  and McDonnell in 2009  all carried about 70% or more of them.  Gillespie  needs to equal  if not exceed  that.
Did the immigration issue help or hurt  Gillespie ?
Northam ran a bland  mostly forgettable campaign  but  Gillespie  planted a stake by igniting Trump-style cultural confrontations over Confederate monuments and especially "sanctuary cities."
Whether  Gillespie  wins or loses  analysts in both parties believe other Republicans are likely to reprise his attacks next year because they have clearly shaken Northam. Already  Guadagno has stressed the issue in the campaign's final weeks.
Both sides will be watching whether  Gillespie 's arguments help  him  turn out the Trump constituency-and whether  in a backlash  they provoke larger turnout and/or bigger margins than usual for Democrats akmong non-white voters.  Gillespie 's campaign insists the "sanctuary city" arguments are also helping  him  with suburban swing voters anxious about crime  while the Northam campaign says the attacks' racial edge have alienated those voters. The answer has big implications for 2018  and both sides will be combing the Virginia results for clues -- particularly the results among college-educated whites and in the DC exurbs-about who's right.
In Virginia  many political experts zero in on two counties. Chesterfield County  just south of Richmond  historically has favored Republicans  but Trump significantly underperformed there. If  Gillespie  wobbles there too  it will offer an indication of suburban backlash against  his  embrace of Trump-like themes. Another marker is well-educated Loudon County in the Washington DC exurbs.  Gillespie  narrowly carried it in 2014  but Clinton trounced Trump there.  Gillespie  can't afford that.
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Election Day 2017: The most important things we'll learn