In the beginning of year 1000 mount Etna had a huge volcanic eruption. To test the effect of volcanic eruption on sea level scientists measured geological data through carbon dating. They measured the data for four different time point - for year 998, year 1000, year 1002, and year 1010. Scientists now need to compare and analyze these data.  According to Grinsted, would the sea level increase or decrease right after year 1000?  Hint: As the thermal expansion is the key factor to the sea level variability, decreased heat content should result in a reduction in global mean sea levelon a decadal time scale.[2] However, Grinsted [2007] argued that a significant sea level rise is the first direct response to the volcanic eruption, and after that sea level becomes to drop. One possible explanation for this phenomenon is the imbalance of ocean mass fluxes. After the volcano eruption, evaporation over ocean becomes lower, because it is largely determined by the ocean skin temperature change. The quick response of evaporation to the surface cooling and the delayed response of river runoff to the associated lower precipitation lead to an increased sea level. About 1~2 years later, river discharge becomes less due to the reduced precipitation and less sea ice melting, which cause sea level to drop.[9]

increase