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Q: Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude April 17, 2013 by Tobias Carlisle Butler|Philbrick|Gordillo and Associates have an interesting post called What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away on the duration and magnitude of all bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871. Social Surge - What's Trending. 1  Six Flags brings down Confederate flags. 2  Carl Bernstein: This is the Trump story reporters need to cover. 3  The best spot on Earth to watch the eclipse is in the sky. These are long periods of time in which stocks make little progress. Then there are cyclical bears, which can come in the middle of a long secular bear or even a secular bull. The chart below shows the three secular bears over the last ninety years. As you can see, the defining characteristic for secular bears is that stocks make no progress for long periods of time. The average bears market last 18 months and has an average of a 30% decline. The average bear market lasts about one year and two months, (The average bull market lasts about three years and seven months.) At least till obama is history. While the nominal Dow begins at 39 points in our chart, adjusting for inflation brings its real value up to 1,426 points. One thing to notice is just how long most secular market cycles are. The average length of all modern secular cycles is 194 months, and the median length is 200 months. That's a little less than 17 years -- about the amount of time needed for a new generation of investors to mature and enter the market. Historical precedent says that the current bull market can’t last forever, but what might cause it to fall? photograph by bryan r. smith / afp / getty Thursday marks eight years since the low point of the last bear market on Wall Street. On March 9, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 6,547.05. Since then, it has more than tripled. If you’d invested twenty thousand dollars in the Dow index eight years ago, it would now be worth about sixty-four thousand dollars. Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. This last bullet probably comes as a surprise to many people. The finance industry and media have conditioned us to view every dip as a buying opportunity. The Almanac says that the shortest bull market in the past 100 years lasted just 61 days during the summer of 1932 yet still saw the Dow bounce 94%! Those are of course the extremes, but the average bull market of the past century has lasted 755 days and delivered an 85% gain. The current bull run is now four years old and up about 120%, making it significantly above average by both measures. How do bull markets start and end? Bear markets begin at the end of one bull market and end at the start of the next bull market, the Stock Trader Almanac states, implying that a cycle change occurs any time the market retreats 20% or more. How long does a bull market last? It depends on which time period you're looking at, Holeman says, but the average bull market lasts somewhere between five to nine years. We're currently in the middle of the second-longest bull market ever. It's been nearly nine years since the prior bear market ended in March 2009. Ultimately, they can range, says Holeman. They can be as long as 13 or 14 [years], and as short as two or three. Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, almost nine years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes. Query: how long does the average bull market last
A:
The average bull market lasts between five to nine years.