Commentary and Tracking of a Portfolio of Stocks using approach from "The Little Book that Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt aka Magic Formula Investing

Saturday, February 01, 2014

Super Bowl Weekend Update

Weekend Update

Should be a fun Super Bowl. I do think the best two teams got in. At the start of the playoffs, I thought the Seahawks would win. But after watching the playoffs, the Broncos seem to me the better team. I am not really rooting for anyone, except a close game.

It was a weird week for the markets. After a year that had very little volatility, the fear factor seems to be returning. I was actually up 1.1% on the week, though it did not feel that way. The Russell 3000 (omen for Russell Wilson?) was down 40 basis points.

MFI Update

A lot of activity for me on the MFI front. First, and most important, my February 1st 2013 tranche is now officially closed down. I will sell the positions on Monday, but for purposes of this blog - I have locked them down. It was a great tranche, up 78.3%.

So with the closing of a tranche, a new tranche begins. I bought the positions yesterday, but for bookkeeping purposes will use their closing prices as starting point. I did think long and hard about my five picks. The selections were:

ATVI - I also have this stock in my November 2013 tranche. I like that they have spun-off from VIV.PA and I like that senior management has put a lot of their own money in.

RPXC - This is a patent company. This is the third straight tranche I have bought them, so they are getting to be one of my largest overall holdings (#7).

WNR - I owned this refiner several years ago. Refineries are largely a function of crack spreads. Abbey Cohen was bullish on HFC in her Barron's round table, and that was the final straw that made my decision (also they just bumped their dividend and meet my MFI-dividend stock qualification).

SNDK - I think flash memory space will continue to flourish, and Sandisk is a premier player here. Like WNR, I owned SNDK once before.

KLAC - this is a semi conductor manufacturer that is just barely on the list. They pay a nice dividend and like KLIC I think will benefit from what I see as increased cap-ex spending in the Semi space.

I expect as interesting as my five picks are, it is also interesting what is not there. I did not renew my AAPL. With Google selling Motorola Mobility, I just think this space is going to be so competitive. I may continue to hold my shares and move into dividend portfolio, but we'll see.

Here are tables showing all my MFI tranches ever.

8/15/12 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K
Gain

DLB

$34.43

$33.04

$4.00

7.6%

22.1%

KFY

$13.98

$18.95

$0.00

35.6%

22.1%

MSFT

$30.19

$31.92

$0.92

8.8%

22.1%

NSU

$3.62

$3.33

$0.12

-4.6%

22.1%

UIS

$19.96

$24.52

$0.00

22.8%

22.1%

Totals

14.1%

22.1%

11/15/12 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K
Gain

AAPL

$537.62

$527.28

$8.75

-0.3%

36.7%

ABC

$40.21

$69.23

$0.86

74.3%

36.7%

LPS

$23.89

$34.26

$0.40

45.1%

36.7%

VIAB

$49.12

$80.94

$1.15

67.1%

36.7%

WU

$12.77

$16.40

$0.50

32.3%

36.7%

Totals

43.7%

36.7%

2/1/13 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K
Gain

AAPL

$450.60

$500.66

$8.75

13.1%

21.1%

GA

$6.10

$11.01

$0.65

91.2%

21.1%

STRZA

$16.06

$27.98

$0.00

74.2%

21.1%

CA

$25.07

$32.08

$1.00

32.0%

21.1%

NUS

$41.94

$116.59

$1.20

180.8%

21.1%

Totals

78.3%

21.1%

5/6/2013

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K
Gain

KLIC

$11.40

$11.64

$0.00

2.1%

13.0%

CYOU

$29.24

$30.03

$0.00

2.7%

13.0%

RDA

$9.74

$18.13

$0.10

87.3%

13.0%

NVDA

$13.85

$15.70

$0.24

15.1%

13.0%

CF

$183.97

$230.86

$1.80

26.5%

13.0%

Totals

26.7%

13.0%

8/15/2013

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K
Gain

CF

$187.26

$230.86

$1.00

23.8%

8.8%

FLR

$66.06

$75.96

$0.32

15.5%

8.8%

AGX

$15.60

$28.41

$0.75

86.9%

8.8%

KLIC

$11.29

$11.64

$0.00

3.1%

8.8%

RPXC

$15.92

$16.22

$0.00

1.9%

8.8%

Totals

26.2%

8.8%

11/15/13 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K
Gain

AVG

$17.22

$16.59

$0.00

-3.7%

0.0%

ATVI

$17.71

$17.13

$0.00

-3.3%

0.0%

GA

$9.04

$11.01

$0.23

24.4%

0.0%

RPXC

$17.04

$16.22

$0.00

-4.8%

0.0%

SYNA

$48.01

$58.36

$0.00

21.6%

0.0%

Totals

6.8%

0.0%

2/1/14 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K
Gain

ATVI

$17.13

$17.13

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

KLAC

$61.47

$61.47

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

RPXC

$16.24

$16.22

$0.00

-0.1%

0.0%

SNDK

$69.55

$69.55

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

WNR

$39.12

$39.11

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

Totals

0.0%

0.0%

Category/Tranche

August

November

February

May

Total

Initial
Investment

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

100,000

Current Tranche

26.2%

6.8%

0.0%

26.7%

15.3%

Previous
Tranche

14.1%

43.7%

78.3%

0.0%

30.6%

MFI Overall Gain

44.0%

53.6%

78.2%

26.7%

50.6%

Current
Balance

35,996

38,393

44,550

31,679

150,619

R3K Current Tranche

8.8%

36.7%

21.1%

13.0%

19.9%

R3K
Overall Gain

32.9%

36.7%

21.1%

13.0%

25.9%

R3K Balance

33,232

34,170

30,278

28,259

125,939

Annualized IRR

28.2%

42.4%

78.1%

37.5%

44.5%

Discretionary Portfolio

By definition, this is my most active portfolio as I will buy stocks here for shorter term speculation. This week I bought and then sold TWM. While it was just a small gain (under a percentage point), it was about a $1,900 gain with my multiplier as it was out-sized. I also bought MBUU yesterday. This is a continuation of my after market IPO purchases. I have now purchase 5 stocks this way and have a total gain of a smidgen over $22,000 (with my factor). So it has worked very well.

GTAT continued to soar this past week. I continue to hold for long term.

Stock

Shares

Avg Cost

Current Price

Dividends Received

Pct Change

R3K Change

Diff

BAC-WTA

6,000

5.35

7.21

-

34.8%

13.6%

21.2%

C

1,500

51.52

47.43

-

-7.9%

-2.4%

-5.5%

CS

1,800

28.75

30.15

-

4.9%

0.5%

4.3%

GNW

7,000

6.82

14.75

-

116.3%

36.8%

79.5%

GTAT

21,000

5.23

10.27

-

96.2%

5.9%

90.3%

HIG-WT

1,650

21.24

24.98

-

17.6%

9.2%

8.5%

KLIC

5,500

11.46

11.64

-

1.5%

7.4%

-5.9%

MBUU

4,000

17.50

17.75

-

1.4%

0.0%

1.4%

RIOM

15,000

2.26

1.97

-

-12.8%

-3.0%

-9.9%

SIRI

15,000

3.73

3.58

-

-4.0%

-1.8%

-2.2%

Total
Open

-

29.5%

5.7%

23.9%

Closed

4.8%

2.3%

2.6%

Combined

12.3%

3.3%

9.1%

Dividend Portfolio

My dividend portfolio, which has been the slacker for me, actually gained some ground this week. It helped that TGONF spiked 9% yesterday. I also had TC-PT go x dividend.

Stock

Shares

Avg Cost

Current Price

Dividends Received

Pct Change

R3K Change

Diff

AOD

10,745

7.93

8.07

5,581.79

8.3%

15.6%

-7.3%

BBEP

4,713

16.16

20.55

4,188.93

32.7%

7.2%

25.5%

CSCO

4,421

17.38

21.91

4,965.98

32.5%

34.3%

-1.8%

CSQ

6,718

8.60

10.77

10,529.20

43.4%

44.3%

-0.9%

INTC

3,754

22.25

24.54

4,490.84

15.6%

28.7%

-13.0%

NTC

6,629

12.00

11.99

-

-0.1%

-3.2%

3.1%

O

585

20.46

40.78

8,810.32

172.9%

102.1%

70.8%

OIBAX

4,093

4.99

6.00

7,808.22

58.5%

107.6%

-49.1%

SBS

6,211

9.54

9.13

-

-4.3%

5.9%

-10.2%

TC-PT

4,000

15.39

14.59

5,686.40

4.1%

13.1%

-9.1%

TGONF

7,000

10.27

10.75

1,317.50

6.5%

9.1%

-2.6%

Total Open

53,379

19.3%

21.1%

-1.8%

Closed

12.9%

10.3%

2.6%

Combined

13.9%

12.1%

1.9%

Annualized IRR
Since 12/31/10

17.2%

2014 Gain

-0.7%

I think that is a wrap for now. It will likely be a busy blogging weekend as my January 2013 portfolio will be wrapped up.