Considering your sports betting appetite, Super Bowl props are often the most popular Big Game bets. In honor of L.A. Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein sending his team to Atlanta (with a little help from the refs), we’re going to dive into some field goal stats and look for value in the huge variety of bets that are leaning on the legs of these Super Bowl LIII kickers.

Total Field Goals

We get a few different bets here, namely how many FGs each team will make (0, 1, 2, 3 or 4-plus) and how many total will be made by both teams (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6-plus). Looking at teams as a whole, the average team made 25.1 field goals - or just over 1.5 per game. Looking at the per-game breakdown in 2018, we get the following:





The most frequent results are two and three field goals per contest, occurring in at 22.6 percent and 27 percent of games respectively. But it’s important to remember that these two teams are far from average.

Both have excellent offenses and kickers, and indeed in 2018 the Rams ranked No. 1 in field goal attempts and third in makes (remember Zuerlein missed several games early in the season). Somewhat surprisingly, the New England Patriots ranked almost exactly average in both attempts and makes, but nonetheless the presence of the Rams will skew the distribution somewhat to the right.

My two favorite bets for total field goals made for Super Bowl LIII are three (+280) and five (+450). Five made field goals isn’t much less common than four but gets a significantly better price, and Zuerlein and the Rams make it that much more attractive.

Looking at the individual teams, the Rams get a shorter price for one and two made field goals, but a better price for three at +400. The Rams made three field goals six times in 18 games this season, making for another attractive option.

Field Goal Distance

Team to make the longest field goal currently sits with both teams at -115. Has either team been better this year?





Here’s the game-by-game breakdown, the Rams (blue) kicked a longer field goal in 11 of their 18 games. More noteworthy, they’ve had the longer field goal in each of the two teams’ last six games.

There is surely a big chunk of variance in there, but we’ve seen two other things in these playoffs that make me lean Rams: first, Zuerlein is arguably the best kicker in the league and McVay has full confidence in him. And perhaps more importantly, McVay has been a little more willing to send him out in situations where other coaches (like Bill Belichek) might keep the offense on the field and go for it. Give me the Rams on this one.

Then there’s the longest field goal of the game, with the line currently set at 45.5 yards with a little extra vig on the Under. The Rams have gone Over this one in nine of 18 games on their own, with the Patriots hitting the Over in six of their 18 games. Add in that the Rams went Over 45.5 yards on a FG in just two of the seven games when “Greg the Leg” was hurt (and so seven of 11 games or 64 percent when Zuerlein played) and the Over looks like a great bet.

The Bets

For those of you who are just looking for the goods, here’s the summary:

Total Field Goals for the Game by Both Teams: 3 (+280), 5 (+400)

Rams Total Field Goals: 3 (+400)

Longest Field Goal Made: Rams (-115), Over 45.5 (-110)