
The Next Big Idea to Change the World? 3D Printing - bluebit
http://www.startupceo.co.za/2012/10/14/the-next-big-idea-to-change-the-world-3d-printing/
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martinkallstrom
Last week I ordered a 3D printer (MakerBot's Replicator 2) for my home, to
allow my daughters (6 and 8) to grow up being able to model and print out
their own toys. Playing the game Minecraft has provided them the eye to see
and create shapes in 3D. I'm eager to see what they will create when I provide
them with the transition from virtual to physical. I want them to be pioneers
of their generation.

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carlfohlin
That's really cool.

Would love a simple blog with their creations!

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martinkallstrom
Great idea, thanks! Will see if we can set up a thumblog for them. Email me at
martin@memoto.com if you want heads up when it's live.

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InclinedPlane
To be honest I think that 20 years from now people won't look back and say "3D
printing, ahah! that was the revolutionary invention" but it will be a part of
a larger set of inventions and innovations which will revolutionize
manufacturing.

For example, I think 3D printing as a method to rapidly make metal casting and
injection molds (either directly printing the molds or via lost-material
casting) is potentially more impactful to manufacturing than direct 3D
printing. The truly big innovation of 3D printing and, say, "table top
manufacturing / fabrication" systems won't come because such devices will be
immanently practical for home use. Instead what I think is more likely is that
the ability of hobbyists and tinkerers to experiment with them will lead to an
explosion of innovation. Meaning: better tools and techniques for automating
and simplifying the process of transitioning from design to manufacturing.

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Retric
I think 3d printing has a lot in common with 2d printing. And I have not had a
printer for since collage, and I tend to go months between printing something
at work.

Of course if were talking about a 3d printer that can print me up a soda or an
iPad that's a different story. But, if it's just little plastic objects well,
that's stuck in the realm of knickknacks / Junk IMO. And I suspect most people
will quickly get to that point after the first cheap 3d printer shows up.

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rmc
_if it's just little plastic objects well, that's stuck in the realm of
knickknacks / Junk IMO. And I suspect most people will quickly get to that
point after the first cheap 3d printer shows up._

It could really revolutionise some things, like home appliances. The little
plastic latch on your appliance break? Print out a new one. The plastic flap
that keeps your battery in on your digital camera break? Print out a new one.
Suddenly a lot of devices might be much more 'repairable' now.

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jbattle
That would be great - but would depend on companies building their devices to
support this

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waterlesscloud
One- Not necessarily. That depends on how the legal aspects shake out, which
is not yet known.

Two- Competitive forces will favor companies which support this approach.

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dmorgan
> _Two- Competitive forces will favor companies which support this approach._

Kinda like open source won the desktop? No wait...

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stevewilhelm
Several people have commented on how this will change appliances and toys.

Let's look at this popular hundred dollar coffee maker:
<http://amzn.com/B004SOZVQ2> which one could order within seconds and have it
delivered within two days.

Just from the picture, one can see it has at least two dozen parts made from
seven different materials ranging from injected molded plastic, stainless
steel, glass, as well as electronic components.

It would be incredibly time consuming and wasteful to print each of these
pieces with a 3D printer.

As others suggested, you could print a custom injection mold for each
component, but then you would need the injection molding machine, several
different kinds of raw plastics, and some means to get rid of the unused,
potentially toxic, materials.

Okay, to complex. How about a simple toy, like this ten dollar Nerf gun.
<http://amzn.com/B0002UP0IA>

Again from the picture one can see seventeen different pieces all different
colors and at least three types of plastic and a least one metal spring.

This gun could be made with 3D printing technology, but it would waste an
incredible amount of material and would take a fair amount of time. You would
still have to order the darts and spring separately.

I could see someone wanting to make this themselves; those who like legos,
model trains etc.

3D printing can be world changing for hobbyists. The rest of us have already
had our world changed by modern manufacturing, global supply chains, and
online retail.

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Peaker
3d printers will print designs optimized for them, rather than ones optimized
for mass production.

Spend 100$ and wait a few days, or spend a few bucks and wait a few hours?

The question is whether a coffee maker can be made from less materials in a
way compatible with cheap 3d printing, and there is no reason to believe it
won't be possible.

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nickpinkston
There's a few ways to look at this:

In the long term (30-50 years), "replicator" technologies could appear, and
then game over there's some major disruption coming.

However, for the type of machines today, better democratization means easier
prototyping, which combines with hackerspaces / TechShop, open hardware, etc.
are already allowing hardware startups to emerge - a movement that's gaining
steam rapidly.

For the mid-term, cheaper prints comparable cost/materials-wise with injection
molding, this could still do some pretty amazing stuff with flexible
production, but we'll still need assembly lines with chips, etc.

Maybe if we can get conductive inks to be responsive enough for digital
electronics, we could print circuit board inside and just pick-n-place the
ICs. Also, by this time we may have a more modular approach to hardware where
only a few thousand components are needed to make 99% of devices - then
Kinkos-scale production would be possible. Timeframe: 10-20 years?

What do you guys think?

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se85
That would be great, but I think the time frame isn't realistic unless we
already have the technology to do this but it is not out of the lab yet so to
speak.

If we do, then perhaps it is possible to make the manufacturing processes
simple enough within this time frame to bring the costs down to the point
where these types of companies would be commercially feasible.

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nickpinkston
Can you elaborate on your answer and time frame question?

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JoeAltmaier
I got a 'creepy crawly maker' for Christmas when I was a kid. It was cool. But
after I'd made all the bugs and run out of juice, it went in the closet.

3D printing is a toy so far. I don't see how it will ever be more than that.

Sure, folks promise better materials soon. But its actually hard to make metal
things well. That's why its done in large factories with expensive presses and
stamps and things. You're not going to recapitulate that in your living room.

I'd love to be wrong. But so far, lumpy plastic toys is what we see. Why?
Because that's possible at low temps/pressures and with cheap tooling.

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iamwil
If you saw the Altair back in the 70's, could you see Wikipedia?

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jlarocco
I see a lot of people making analogies like this, but nobody explaining how
the technical problems will be overcome.

Yes, computer technology improved rapidly. How is it relevant to 3D printing?
Why do you think 3D printing will evolve as rapidly as computers did?

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waterlesscloud
Because it has already?

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zwieback
Design and manufacturing engineers have been using 3D printing for some time
now and while it hasn't revolutionized anything 3D printing has certainly made
the discipline more efficient and lowered the bar for prototyping. We now have
a fully established rapid prototyping flow that allows an ME to"print" a part
without even fiddling with the actual printer or stereolith machine.

The only flipside is that customers can see the real thing much earlier and do
not understand that at least two or three more engineering disciplines are
involved in turning a prototype into a product.

I think the potential for the home user and tinkerer is enormous and that can
only be good. Companies that can afford in-house 3D printing are also the ones
least likely to address niche markets or crazy ideas.

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mtgx
Star Trek's replicator is the obvious long term outcome if we can can get
nanotechnology cheap enough, so anyone can buy such a machine in their own
homes. Then we'd go to supermarkets (or maybe get them sent home) to buy only
raw materials like protein and such.

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Simucal
Maybe we'd just have "feed lines" of raw molecules to our homes like in The
Diamond Age. Also, if this technology interests you and you haven't read that
book, I highly recommend it. It is my favorite Neal Stephenson book.

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brackin
To start I think 3D printing is just making it easier for hobbyists and small
professionals to manufacture products, lowering cost for the consumer and
increasing competition. In time they'll start to come into the home if we can
find further compelling reasons for them.

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hk__2
Next Big Idea? 3D Printing is ~20 years old.

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seanmcdirmid
Ya, computers were +30 years old when the PC revolution started up. It was
still a big idea.

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fastball
I'm just waiting for Matter Compilers, as imagined in Neal Stephenson's novel
_The Diamond Age_

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bigthingnext
3D printing closes an important loop.

Development board - check Operating system - check Enclosure - ?

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ashleyblackmore
More plastic shit to print more plastic shit into the world. I can only see
this "changing" things in a negative way, at least environmentally. I hope
this doesn't take off, unless it is able to actually counteract the way things
are going with plastic right now

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iamwil
ABS and PLA are common plastics home desktop 3D printers use. PLA is widely
known for being corn based, and PLA is recyclable at recycling plants. ABS can
be melted more than once, and people are working on machines that can take
your broken ABS parts, and remelt it back into plastic filament you can use
for your 3D printer.

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ashleyblackmore
That's great to hear! When I wrote that comment, I had just been watched the
VBS documentary on garbage island. Kind of bummed me out

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dschiptsov
So I will be able to print a metal thing?))

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mtgx
There are metal 3D printers, but the process is a lot more complex right now,
and they are more expensive. But in time I'm sure some innovations will appear
to make it as easy as printing plastic objects.

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dschiptsov
As little as I know, there are entire branch of science devoted to materials,
which basically tells us than we cannot print any "interesting" thing.

For example, you will never be able to print a spare part for your car, just
because of materials requited.

