Liability recognized for best estimate net of reinsurance, incurred but not reported (IBNR)

  
uncertainty regarding the pandemic's pervasiveness, the future impact that the pandemic may have on claim frequency and severity remains uncertain at this time.The Company has estimated the potential COVID-19 impact to its contingency and event cancellation, workers’ compensation, and other lines of business under a number of possible scenarios; however, due to COVID-19’s continued evolving impact, there remains a high degree of uncertainty around the Company’s COVID-19 reserves. In addition, should the pandemic continue or worsen as a result of new COVID-19 variants or otherwise, governments in the jurisdictions where we operate may renew their efforts to expand policy coverage terms beyond the policy’s intended coverage. Accordingly, losses arising from these actions, and the other factors described above, could exceed the Company’s reserves established for those related policies.As of December 31, 2021, the Company had recognized losses for COVID-19-related claims activity, net of reinsurance, of approximately $274 million, of which $233 million relates to the Insurance segment and $41 million relates to the Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment. Such $274 million of COVID-19-related losses included $239 million of reported losses and $35 million of IBNR. For the year ended December 31, 2021, the Company recognized current accident year losses for COVID-19-related claims activity, net of reinsurance, of approximately $58 million, of which $54 million relates to the Insurance segment and $4 million relates to the Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment.Favorable prior year development (net of additional and return premiums) was $7 million in 2021.Insurance – Reserves for the Insurance segment developed favorably by $20 million in 2021 (net of additional and return premiums). The overall favorable development in 2021 was attributable to favorable development on the 2020 accident year, partially offset by adverse development on the 2016 through 2019 accident years.The favorable development on the 2020 accident year was largely concentrated in the commercial auto liability and other liability lines of business, including commercial multi-peril liability. During 2020 the Company achieved larger rate increases in these lines of business than were contemplated in its budget and in its initial loss ratio selections. The Company also experienced significantly lower reported claim frequency in these lines in 2020 relative to historical averages, and lower reported incurred losses relative to its expectations. We believe that the lower claim frequency and lower reported incurred losses were caused by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, lockdowns, reduced driving and traffic, work from home, and court closures. However, due to the uncertainty regarding the ultimate impacts of the pandemic on accident year 2020 incurred losses, the Company elected not to react to these lower reported trends during 2020. As more information became available and the 2020 accident year continued to mature, during 2021 the Company started to recognize favorable accident year 2020 development in response to the continuing favorable reported loss experience relative to its expectations. The adverse development on the 2016 through 2019 accident years is concentrated largely in the other liability line of business, including commercial multi-peril liability, but is also seen to a lesser extent in commercial auto liability. The adverse development for these accident years is driven by a higher than expected number of large losses reported, and particularly impacted the directors and officers liability, lawyers professional liability, and excess and surplus lines casualty classes of business. We also believe that increased social inflation is contributing to the increased number of large losses, for example, higher jury awards on cases which go to trial, and the corresponding higher demands from plaintiffs and higher values required to reach settlement on cases which do not go to trial.Reinsurance & Monoline Excess – Reserves for the Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment developed unfavorably by $13 million in 2021. The unfavorable development in the segment was driven by the non-proportional reinsurance assumed liability and other liability lines of business, related primarily to accident years 2017 through 2019, and was partially offset by favorable development in excess workers’ compensation business which was spread across many prior accident years. The unfavorable non-proportional reinsurance assumed liability and other liability development was associated with our U.S. and U.K. assumed reinsurance business, and related primarily to accounts insuring construction projects and professional liability exposures.Favorable prior year development (net of additional and return premiums) was $16 million in 2020.Insurance - Reserves for the Insurance segment developed favorably by $24 million in 2020 (net of additional and return premiums). Continuing the pattern seen in recent years, the overall favorable development in 2020 resulted from more significant favorable development on workers’ compensation business, which was partially offset by unfavorable development on professional liability, including excess professional liability.For workers’ compensation, the favorable development was spread across almost all prior accident years, including prior to 2011, but was most significant in accident years 2016 through 2019. The favorable workers’ compensation development reflects a continuation of the benign loss cost trends experienced during recent years, particularly the favorable claim frequency 98  

