Loss Contingency, Change in Estimated Loss

FORD MOTOR COMPANY AND SUBSIDIARIESNOTES TO THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTSNOTE 25.  COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES (Continued)  
Litigation and Claims  
Various legal actions, proceedings, and claims (generally, “matters”) are pending or may be instituted or asserted against us. These include, but are not limited to, matters arising out of alleged defects in our products; product warranties; governmental regulations relating to safety, emissions, and fuel economy or other matters; government incentives; tax matters, including trade and customs; alleged illegal acts resulting in fines or penalties; financial services; employment-related matters; dealer, supplier, and other contractual relationships; intellectual property rights; environmental matters; shareholder or investor matters; and financial reporting matters. Certain of the pending legal actions are, or purport to be, class actions. Some of the matters involve or may involve claims for compensatory, punitive, or antitrust or other treble damages in very large amounts, or demands for field service actions, environmental remediation programs, sanctions, loss of government incentives, assessments, or other relief, which, if granted, would require very large expenditures.   
The extent of our financial exposure to these matters is difficult to estimate. Many matters do not specify a dollar amount for damages, and many others specify only a jurisdictional minimum. To the extent an amount is asserted, our historical experience suggests that in most instances the amount asserted is not a reliable indicator of the ultimate outcome.  
We accrue for matters when losses are deemed probable and reasonably estimable. In evaluating matters for accrual and disclosure purposes, we take into consideration factors such as our historical experience with matters of a similar nature, the specific facts and circumstances asserted, the likelihood that we will prevail, and the severity of any potential loss. We reevaluate and update our accruals as matters progress over time.  
For the majority of matters, which generally arise out of alleged defects in our products, we establish an accrual based on our extensive historical experience with similar matters. We do not believe there is a reasonably possible outcome materially in excess of our accrual for these matters.   
For the remaining matters, where our historical experience with similar matters is of more limited value (i.e., “non-pattern matters”), we evaluate the matters primarily based on the individual facts and circumstances. For non-pattern matters, we evaluate whether there is a reasonable possibility of a material loss in excess of any accrual that can be estimated.  Our estimate of reasonably possible loss in excess of our accruals for all material matters currently reflects indirect tax and customs matters, for which we estimate the aggregate risk to be a range of up to about $1.7 billion, an increase of about $1.3 billion from December 31, 2020, primarily reflecting an assessment received in 2021 in a customs matter.   
As noted, the litigation process is subject to many uncertainties, and the outcome of individual matters is not predictable with assurance. Our assessments are based on our knowledge and experience, but the ultimate outcome of any matter could require payment substantially in excess of the amount that we have accrued and/or disclosed.171
