AIM: This study evaluated the advantages of 'selective' over 'non-selective' antiarrhythmic prevention of atrial fibrillation after coronary surgery based on a new risk prediction algorithm.METHODS AND RESULTS: In a retrospective analysis of a prospective randomized trial, a model for risk prediction was determined based on clinical data of the control group (A; n = 107) and tested in a test group (B; n = 107, treated with low dose sotalol). Using this algorithm, the effect of a 'selective' antiarrhythmic approach in high-risk patients was compared to a 'non-selective' approach, where all patients were treated. In total, 75 (35%) patients developed atrial fibrillation and 14 (7%) side-effects led to discontinuation of study medication. Based on the risk prediction algorithm, 36% of group A patients were classified as high-risk patients with an incidence of atrial fibrillation of 76% compared to 26% in low-risk patients (P < 0.0001). The selective approach, i.e. treatment of high-risk patients only reduced the incidence of atrial fibrillation from 76% to 50% (P = 0.0295) compared to a reduction from 44% to 26% (P = 0.0065) when all patients were treated. More importantly, with the non-selective approach 100% of patients were exposed to the possible side-effects of sotalol and costs compared to 24% only with the selective approach (P < 0.0001).CONCLUSIONS: Thus, a selective approach based on a clinical risk prediction algorithm should improve the cost-effectiveness and safety of low-dose sotalol in the prevention of atrial fibrillation after coronary bypass surgery.
Adult Aged