BACKGROUND & AIMS: Infection with Helicobacter pylori (H pylori) is a risk factor for peptic ulcer disease (PUD), but there are limited longitudinal data on the associations between infection and incident gastric or duodenal ulcers.METHODS: Information on potential risk factors, lifetime history of PUD, and serologic measurements of H pylori infection were obtained from a German cohort of 9953 adults, 50 to 74 years old at baseline (2000-2002). The incidence of ulcers was determined by questionnaires sent to study participants and general practitioners 2 and 5 years later, and was validated by medical records.RESULTS: A lifetime history of PUD was reported by 1030 participants, and during the follow-up period 48 had a first gastric and 22 had a first duodenal ulcer. Infection with H pylori strains that express cytotoxin-associated gene A (cagA) was significantly associated with a lifetime history of PUD (odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-2.04). Based on longitudinal analyses with physician-validated end points, the adjusted hazard ratios for incident gastric and duodenal ulcer disease were 2.9 (95% CI, 1.5-5.5) and 18.4 (95% CI, 4.2-79.9), respectively, among patients infected with cagA-positive strains of H pylori.CONCLUSIONS: In cross-sectional analysis, infection with cagA-positive strains of H pylori was associated with a 1.75-fold increased risk of peptic ulcer disease. Longitudinal analyses revealed an 18.4- and 2.9-fold increased risk for duodenal ulcer and gastric ulcer, respectively. The proportion of PUD that is attributable to H pylori infection might be larger than previously believed.
Aged Antibodies, Bacterial