BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity prevalence remains high in the U.S., especially among racial/ethnic minorities and low-income populations. Federal policy is important in improving public health given its broad reach. Information is needed about federal policies that could reduce childhood obesity rates and by how much.PURPOSE: To estimate the impact of three federal policies on childhood obesity prevalence in 2032, after 20 years of implementation.METHODS: Criteria were used to select the three following policies to reduce childhood obesity from 26 recommended policies: afterschool physical activity programs, a $0.01/ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) excise tax, and a ban on child-directed fast food TV advertising. For each policy, the literature was reviewed from January 2000 through July 2012 to find evidence of effectiveness and create average effect sizes. In 2012, a Markov microsimulation model estimated each policy's impact on diet or physical activity, and then BMI, in a simulated school-aged population in 2032.RESULTS: The microsimulation predicted that afterschool physical activity programs would reduce obesity the most among children aged 6-12 years (1.8 percentage points) and the advertising ban would reduce obesity the least (0.9 percentage points). The SSB excise tax would reduce obesity the most among adolescents aged 13-18 years (2.4 percentage points). All three policies would reduce obesity more among blacks and Hispanics than whites, with the SSB excise tax reducing obesity disparities the most.CONCLUSIONS: All three policies would reduce childhood obesity prevalence by 2032. However, a national $0.01/ounce SSB excise tax is the best option.
Adolescent Carbonated Beverages