Green regeneration in Colombia
guardian.co.uk,                    Friday 30 April 2010 17.00 BST   Say it quietly, but the next president of Colombia might not be a guerrilla-obsessed  rightwinger. Just about everyone had expected Alvaro Uribe's  successor to be a similar hardliner, such as former defence minister  Juan Manuel Santos. Instead, Colombians are on the verge of electing a  leader who will transform their parasitic political culture. Latin  America's most exciting presidential prospect since Lula da Silva has  arrived.The great white hope is Antanas Mockus, candidate of the  reinvented Green party. He has persuaded Colombians that they can do more than just insult their old-style  politicians: they can vote them out.Mockus is a former maths  professor who left academia after baring his backside to a group of  student protesters. Two years later, he was elected mayor of Bogotá.  Politics did not make him much more conventional.Between 1995 and  1997, he revolutionised security in the city, changing public attitudes  and police tactics. Homicides dropped by 30%. Mockus refused city  councillors' demands for pork-barrel spending, preferring to stall the political  process than to buy them off. He launched tax reforms, including an  additional voluntary payment for the wealthy, which helped Bogotá's  citizens trust their government. While other mayors spent every last  peso just for the sake of it, Mockus left behind an unprecedented budget  surplus.Put simply, he showed honesty, efficiency and  imagination – qualities that progressive politics have been crying out  for in Colombia (and Argentina, Venezuela, Peru). Brazil found similar  appeal in Lula and his Workers party. But  there's at least one key difference.Ask an average Brazilian  what's the best thing about Lula and she'll probably say that he has  lived in poverty and wants to alleviate it. Ask an average Colombian the  same question about Mockus, and the response is that he's a pedagogue, a  teacher who encourages citizens to think and discuss. In other words,  while Lula brings popular concerns into political debate, Mockus makes  political debate into a popular concern. Latin America could use both  approaches, but it has rarely if ever had a president like Mockus.Indeed,  after finishing his second term as mayor in 2003, Mockus seemed a  has-been. He ran for president in 2006, winning only 1.2% of the vote.  He wanted to promote "citizenship culture", but ended up in an ad  campaign about gas leakages. He was a fading star, the embodiment  of the Colombian phrase, "No one is a prophet in their own land".By  the time he launched a new presidential campaign in 2009, observers (including this  one) had written him off. Colombian voters were demanding a strong  leader who would stand up to the Farc, as Uribe had done. Many still rule  out voting for a female candidate (Noemí Sanín of the Conservative  party) for that very reason. Mockus's academic approach seemed  principled but doomed.Then in early April, having won the Green  party primary, Mockus, aged 58, revealed he had been diagnosed with  Parkinson's disease. Doctors opined his mental abilities would be  untouched for 12 years, but surely voters would be put off?Not a  chance. Ahead of the election on 30 May, a recent poll puts Mockus  in first place with 38% – a 9% lead over ex-minister Santos. That would  put Mockus and Santos into a June runoff, where the former mayor could  mop up enough votes from two other progressive candidates, Gustavo Petro  and Rafael Pardo, to get the 50% needed. Another poll has the two  neck-and-neck in the first round, with Mockus winning the run-off.How is  such a comeback even thinkable? In retrospect, Mockus's recent weakness  was a reflection of Uribe's strength. Competing with a popular incumbent  in 2006 was a fool's errand. But Uribe is now a spent force: the  constitutional court refused his bid for a third term, and allegations  of corruption and his attempts at health reform have damaged his  popularity. A victim of Blairite hubris, Uribe is now scrabbling around  in search of a legacy.There's something else. Colombians want  change. Their politics is not completely dysfunctional – ministries are  filled with competent public servants. But the system is laced with  corruption. Under Uribe, agricultural subsidies were handed out to  powerful families, innocent civilians were killed by the military and  dressed up as guerrilla casualties, the government allied with  congressmen linked to paramilitary groups, and the security service  spied on and intimidated judges and human-rights activists under orders from the presidential palace.Mockus's  campaign is an ethical backlash against this anything-goes culture. "I  want us to cure ourselves of illegality," he says, proposing "Democratic  Legality" to replace Uribe's Democratic Security policy. He labels  public funds "sacred". Under Colombian electoral law, Mockus was  entitled to £2.5m of state money for his strong performance in the  primaries; he refused most of it. Meanwhile, the Santos campaign has  allegedly threatened to withdraw state subsidies for those who don't support his rallies.What about  other issues? Santos and Uribe have tried to paint Mockus as soft on  crime, but the homicide statistics in Bogotá – at one time lauded by  Uribe himself – tell a different story. Mockus is out to prove, as he  did as mayor, that the government can have more than one priority. He is  best placed to expand the political agenda, bringing in social  development.Mockus has the backing of three other outstanding  former mayors, including Sergio Fajardo, now on his vice-presidential  ticket. On Facebook and at campaign events, there is genuine excitement  at the alliance. If Uribe's popularity came from people's fear, Mockus's  comes from optimism, especially among the young, that Colombia is ripe  for a well-considered revolution.Of course, observers of Latin  America do well not to worship false idols. If Mockus is elected, he'll  have to deal with a congress dominated by Santos's wretched U party, as  well as the reality that the drugs war can neither be abandoned nor won.  In any case, Colombia's political machines may rev up just in time to  nick the presidential race for Santos.For now, however, the  momentum is with Mockus, and he has earned it.(The Guardian/London)