Cable de la embajada en Tegucigalpa; Retrato de Zelaya
ID:154125 Date:2008-05-15 20:54:00 Origin:08TEGUCIGALPA459 Source:Embassy Tegucigalpa Classification:SECRET Dunno: Destination:VZCZCXRO5637OO RUEHLMCDE RUEHTG #0459/01 1362054ZNY SSSSS ZZHO 152054Z MAY 08FM AMEMBASSY TEGUCIGALPATO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8111INFO RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID IMMEDIATE 0513RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATERUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//CINC/POLAD// IMMEDIATERUEAHND/CDRJTFB SOTO CANO HO IMMEDIATERUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATERUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC IMMEDIATERHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC IMMEDIATERHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DHO-5// IMMEDIATERUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC IMMEDIATERHMFISS/DIRJIATF SOUTH IMMEDIATERUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL IMMEDIATERUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC IMMEDIATERUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE 0742RHMFISS/FBI WASHDC IMMEDIATERHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATERUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATERHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATERUMIAAA/USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 000459SIPDISMADRID FOR HUGO LLORENSE.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2018TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, KDEM, ECON, SOCI, KCRM, ENRG, EFIN,SNAR, SMIG, MARR, MASS, MOPS, HOSUBJECT: PRESIDENT JOSE MANUEL ZELAYA ROSALES: PERSONALREFLECTIONS OF AMBASSADOR FORDREF: OFFICIAL BIOS ON FILEClassified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. FORD FOR REASONS 1.4 (b and d) 1. (S) Summary: Honduran President Jose Manuel &Mel8Zelaya Rosales is a throwback to an earlier Central Americanera, almost a caricature of a land-owner  &caudillo8 interms of his leadership style and tone. Ever the rebelliousteenager, Zelaya,s principal goal in office is to enrichhimself and his family while leaving a public legacy as amartyr who tried to do good but was thwarted at every turn bypowerful, unnamed interests. Various public statements overhis tenure suggest he would be quite comfortable as a martyrwho tried but failed honorably in his attempt to seek outsocial justice for the poor.  He is comfortable working withthe Armed Forces and until recently with the Catholic Church,yet resents the very existence of the Congress, the AttorneyGeneral and Supreme Court.  Over his two and a half years inoffice, he has become increasingly surrounded by thoseinvolved in organized crime activities.  End Summary.2. (S) I have gotten to know Mel Zelaya quite well over mytenure as Ambassador, and offer these personal reflections onhis character, his views of the United States, and on whathis presidency means for our interest in the region with theobjective of informing future policy choices.3. (S) Personally, I have found Zelaya to be gracious andcharming, quite willing to tell me whatever he thinks I wantto hear at that moment.  For example, in the periodJune-August 2007, we must have met weekly, with his agendafocused on explaining his nomination of Jorge Arturo Reina(who lost his U.S. visa for past terrorist connections) asthe UN Ambassador, his presence in Managua at Sandinistacelebrations and his intentions with regard to Hugo Chavez.It was interesting to see how his explanations differed frommeeting to meeting, almost as if he had no recollection ofour exchange just a few days before.4. (S) In the period May-June 2006, Zelaya pressed me hard toobtain President Bush,s approval of his plan to joinPetroCaribe.  When he met in early June with President Bushwho  confirmed our strong opposition to his intention, Zelayalater told me that he was surprised that this item had beenon our agenda.  In short, over an almost three year period ithas become crystal clear to me that Zelaya,s views change bythe day or in some cases by the hour, depending on his moodand who he has seen last.5.(S)  Not surprisingly, Zelaya has no real friends outsideof his family, as he ridicules publicly those closest to him. In the days preceding his inauguration, Zelaya without priornotification canceled a country team briefing for his newcabinet.  Over a private lunch he explained that he trustedno one in his government and asked me the question: &Who isthe most powerful; the person with a knife behind the door orthe person outside the door who knows there is someone behindthe door with a knife?8 It is clear to me that tactically hewill work with almost anyone, but strategically he standsalone.6. (S) Zelaya also has been quite erratic in his behavior.Despite his often harsh public rhetoric, such as describingU.S. immigration policy against illegal aliens as"persecution" by "fascists", Zelaya would meet again withPresident Bush in a heartbeat.  At one point he even plannedto go uninvited to a bilateral Bush-Berger meeting inGuatemala.  Zelaya not only allowed the first visit of a U.S.warship to mainland Honduras in 22 years, but he delivered aTEGUCIGALP 00000459  002 OF 004ringing speech extolling bilateral relations on the ship'sdeck, only briefly expressing pride in Honduras' capture andexecution of the American interventionist William Walker.Always suspicious of American intentions, he inexplicablysubmitted to a psychological profile at my Residence - twice. His erratic behavior appears most evident when hedeliberately stirs street action in protest against his owngovernment policy - only to resolve the issue (teachercomplaints, transportation grievances, etc) at the lastmoment.  This approach to problem solving seems to beZelaya's way of gaining acceptance, challenging theestablished political power structure, and moving his agenda- which is not populist or ideological, but is based onpopular appeal.7. (S) Zelaya remains very much a rebellious teenager,anxious to show his lack of respect for authority figures.Cardinal Andres Rodriguez has told me that not only did henot graduate from university but he actually did not graduatefrom high school.  The Cardinal should know, as he was one ofhis teachers.  The problem is that Mel has acted in thisjuvenile, rebellious manner his entire life and succeeded inreaching the highest office in the land.  No need to changenow.  He will continue to lead a chaotic, highly disorganizedprivate life.8. (S)  There also exists a sinister Zelaya, surrounded by afew close advisors with ties to both Venezuela and Cuba andorganized crime.  Zelaya's desperate defense of formertelecommunications chief Marcelo Chimirri (widely believed tobe a murderer, rapist and thief) suggests that Chimirri holdsmuch over Zelaya himself.  Zelaya almost assuredly takesstrong medication for a severe back problem and perhaps otherdrugs as well.  His vehement attacks on the press havereportedly endangered journalists opposed to Zelaya'spolicies. His style and tone in order to get his way is oneof intimidation and bullying, threatening tax inspections andworse rather than substantive debate on issues.  Zelaya'sinability to name a Vice Minister for Security lendscredibility to those who suggest that narco traffickers havepressured him to name one of their own to this position.  Dueto his close association with persons believed to be involvedwith international organized crime, the motivation behindmany of his policy decisions can certainly be questioned.  Iam unable to brief Zelaya on sensitive law enforcement andcounter-narcotics actions due my concern that this would putthe lives of U.S. officials in jeopardy.9. (S) Finally, Mel is very much a son of Olancho, aware ofhis roots in the land and his family's ties to Honduras sincethe 1500,s.  Unlike most other Honduran leaders in recenttimes, Zelaya,s view of a trip to the &big city8 meansTegucigalpa and not  Miami or New Orleans.  While he and hisfamily have been part of the Honduran landscape for 400years, they have not until recently inter-married with theHonduras elite in Tegucigalpa or San Pedro Sula.  His son'smarriage in 2006 to one of the country's leadingHonduran-Arab families was very important to Zelaya yet acomplex event, signifying acceptance into the very elitegroup that he so very much resents.10. (S) I have found Zelaya,s real views of the UnitedStates hidden not too very deeply below the surface.  In aword, he is not a friend.  His views are shaped not byideology or personal ambitions but by an old-fashionednationalism where he holds the United States accountable forHonduras, current state of poverty and dependency.Zelaya,s public position against the Contra War and againstthe establishment of Joint Task Force Bravo at Soto Cano AirTEGUCIGALP 00000459  003 OF 004Force Base are manifestations of this underlying viewpoint.11. (S) Other behavior by the President confirms, in my view,the depth of his feeling.  While Zelaya was open to our pointof view of the selection of key members of his Cabinet, hewas absolutely closed to listening to us on his appointmentof his Ambassador to the OAS and to his appointment of JorgeArturo Reina as Ambassador to the UN.  The Honduran votingrecord in the UN in terms of coincidence with US positions isat the lowest point in decades.12. (S) More revealing, at public events with key officialspresent, Zelaya will make clear that anyone interested inbecoming President of the country needs first to get theblessing of the American Ambassador.  Personally, in privateconversations at the Residence, Zelaya has recounted to me,multiple times how a previous American Ambassador had orderedthe President of the Honduran Congress to accept thePresidential candidacy of Ricardo Maduro, even though inZelaya,s view Maduro was Panamanian-born and thusineligible.  Other sources have documented Zelaya,s views onthis point where his anger and resentment are more apparentthan in his exchanges with me.  It is clear by the way herecounts the story that on one level he resents very muchthis perceived dependency yet accepts it exists and looks tome to define for him the rules of the game. He becomesfrustrated at times when he believes I am not carrying outthis responsibility.13. (S) Most noticeable to me has been his avoidance ofpublic meetings with visiting US officials.  Whether Cabinetofficials or CODELs, Zelaya always is a gracious host, butnever comes out of the meeting to have his picture takenpublicly with our visitors, as he is so anxious to do withother visitors from Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela.  Almostall of our meetings take place at my Residence rather than atthe more public setting of the Presidential Palace.  He madeno attempt to disseminate his may photo ops with PresidentBush after the June 2006 meeting in Washington.  The fact isthat the President of the country prefers to meet quite oftenin the privacy of my Residence but not to be seen in publicwith American visitors.14.  (S) Finally, Zelaya recently is fond of saying that weneed to improve our communication, which I interpret to meanthat we need to agree with him more often.  A similar fatehas befallen Cardinal Rodriguez who used to meet, as I do,regularly with the President.  As the Cardinal in recentmonths has found himself in disagreement with Zelaya and isnot participating publicly in his projects,  Zelaya isworking increasingly  with pastors in the evangelicalcommunity. The Cardinal recently told me that he and thePresident hardly speak now as the President is unhappy thathe doesn't agree with the direction Zelaya is taking thecountry. For Zelaya, communicating means agreeingunquestionably with his point of view.15. (S)  GOING FORWARD:  The last year and a half of theZelaya Administration will be, in my view, extraordinarilydifficult for our bilateral relationship.  His pursuit ofimmunity from the numerous activities of organized crimecarried out in his Administration will cause him to threatenthe rule of law and institutional stability.  Honduraninstitutions and friendly governments will need to beprepared to act privately and in public to help move Hondurasforward.16. (S)  We will need, in my view, to continue to engageZelaya whenever we can in order to minimize damage and toTEGUCIGALP 00000459  004 OF 004protect our core interests.  As a rebellious teenager, hewill need a significant space to move, in but we must be verydirect in our conversations with him as to our coreinterests.  Despite his feelings towards us, he does respectthe role the U.S. Embassy is still perceived to play inHonduran society and will expect us in private to be directand clear in our views.  Using an analogy from Americanfootball, we will need to continue to carry out an aggressivebend but not break defensive game plan in the run up to thenext elections in November 2009.  In this way, I believe wecan engage Zelaya intensely in the hope of so as tominimizing damage to Honduran democracy and the economy.Ford