Democracy's Chances in Egypt
In a SPIEGEL interview, Egyptian  opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei explains why President Hosni Mubarak  should leave Egypt as soon as possible, how Israel should view the  popular revolts across the Arab world and how he could go from being an  "agent of change" to Egypt's next president.   SPIEGEL: Mr. ElBaradei, is Egypt in danger of a civil war?      ElBaradei: I see this danger. We've experienced a complete  collapse of public order and bloody, sometimes even fatal assaults.  These were carried out by provocateurs, most of whom were recruited by  the intelligence service and the police.      SPIEGEL: Do you have any proof of that?   ElBaradei: Yes, the culprits took off their uniforms so that they  could not be recognized. Some of them still had their identification  papers on them when they were seized by the demonstrators. The only way  they could have caused widespread panic on horses and camels was with  the government's support. They robbed passersby and journalists, and  they tried to prevent the demonstrators from getting supplies.  SPIEGEL: Shouldn't you be headed down to Tahrir Square to try to use your authority to calm people down there?   ElBaradei: I was there once, and things broke out in turmoil. I  need to watch out for my own safety. There are people who think they'd  be doing the regime a favor by killing me. The longer things continue on  this way with Mubarak, the clearer it becomes that the country is  imploding both politically and economically. Mubarak must go; not at  some point, but now. I believe the Americans are also getting very  impatient.  SPIEGEL: You've given Mubarak an ultimatum. It expired on Friday, which the demonstrators dubbed the "day of departure" ...  ElBaradei: ... and I will say it again: He must go away quickly.  I'm sure that some Arab country will take him in. I've heard from  Bahrain. If he still has one spark of patriotism, this is his last  chance.   SPIEGEL: You know Mubarak personally. How does he think?   ElBaradei: I've met with him on a few occasions. We discussed  Egyptian foreign policy. The conversations weren't at all uncomfortable.  Still, I believe he is afflicted with the malady of dictators. No one  within his circle dares to contradict him anymore, to tell him the  truth. I think it has gotten very lonely around him.  SPIEGEL: So who should convince him he has to go?   ElBaradei: The Egyptian people. Now that the culture of fear has  been vanquished in Egypt, the people know that they can accomplish  everything. I am very proud of my fellow countrymen. Just a few months  back, when I was at an event with my brother, I turned to him and said,  depressed: 'Dead souls; the Egyptians are all dead souls.' Today, I look  young people in the eyes and I see self-confidence, a spirit of  optimism and a belief in what the future holds.  SPIEGEL: Did you expect that would ever happen?   ElBaradei: I had hoped it would, but I didn't see it coming -- at  least not at this speed. A people that was frozen in a political coma  just a few months ago is now a model for all the world's oppressed  peoples. It's truly astounding.  SPIEGEL: Do you think it is more of an advantage or disadvantage  that the movement doesn't have a real leader? Or would you go so far as  to say that you ...  ElBaradei: ... no, I'm not that presumptuous. It is a broad-based  movement. I can't say that I am its leader. I'm happy to be an agent of  change, and I'm working closely with the demonstrators. Young people,  in particular, should be praised for what they've accomplished. I'm  prepared to advise them on how to transform their successes on the  street into concrete political results. Three of their leaders will be  coming to visit me for this very purpose right after we're done talking.    SPIEGEL: Very little has been said recently about your National  Alliance for Change, which includes members of the fundamentalist Muslim  Brotherhood in addition to students. Are you still representing that  group when you negotiate with the government?  ElBaradei: Yes. Yesterday, I spoke with (government)  representatives once again. But the scorched earth policy will only end  when the conditions are right, when the president is gone. We do not  cede any legitimacy to representatives of the regime who support  Mubarak.  SPIEGEL: Newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman has already  entered into a dialogue with opposition leaders -- but not with you or  any representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood.  ElBaradei: I've heard that, as well. He met with representatives of the established parties ...  SPIEGEL: ... and, in doing so, has started driving a wedge into the opposition ...  ElBaradei: ... but these parties don't have much to say. The most  important forces are the demonstrators and the Muslim Brotherhood, both  of which are the best organized groupings. I would prefer to speak with  the army leadership soon to explore how we could achieve a peaceful  transition without bloodshed. With a new constitution and the dissolving  of the current parliament. How we can build a modern, democratic state.    SPIEGEL: Do you see any parallels between the toppling of the  regimes in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989 and the ongoing popular  uprisings in the Arab world?   ElBaradei: Absolutely. Both are major, historic breaks. What's  currently playing out in the Arab world -- from Tunisia all the way to  Yemen -- resembles a wildfire. I have no doubt that the transition in  Egypt will be accompanied by a transition in the entire Middle East. We  could experience an Arab Spring ...   SPIEGEL: ... which hopefully won't end as tragically as the  Prague Spring of 1968, when Warsaw Pact troops violently suppressed  political liberalization in Czechoslovakia. The Israelis seem more  worried than anyone.  ElBaradei: There are a few myths that Mubarak has successfully  disseminated in the West and in Israel. First, that if he falls, there  will be immediate chaos. Second, that if Egypt transitions into a  democracy, the peace treaty with Israel will be annulled and we will be  on the verge of entering into a new war in the Middle East. And, third,  that if there is a transformation, an ayatollah à la Iran will take over  in Cairo. All of that is nonsense.  SPIEGEL: Does that mean you can't sympathize with people's nervousness about Egyptian Islamists?  ElBaradei: I don't think like the Muslim Brotherhood, and I don't  share their conservative religious ideology. Incidentally, they are not  a majority; instead they have the potential to win about 20 percent of  the Egyptian vote. Nor do they have ties with al-Qaida. They have sworn  off violence and agreed to play by democratic rules.  SPIEGEL: Are you now saying that a government that included  participation by the Muslim Brotherhood would continue on with Mubarak's  policies toward Israel?   ElBaradei: No. Something the Israelis also need to grasp is that  it's impossible to make peace with a single man. At the moment, they  have a peace treaty with Mubarak, but not one with the Egyptian people.  The Israelis should understand that it is in their long-term interest to  have a democratic Egypt as a neighbor, and that it is prudent to  acknowledge the legitimate interests of the Palestinians and to grant  them their own state."   SPIEGEL: What should a new president change about Egypt's  relationship with Israel? Would you go to Israel to meet with Benjamin  Netanyahu, Israel's hard-line prime minister?     ElBaradei: I have already made earlier trips to Israel. But, when  it comes to politics, I'm always much more concerned with the substance  than the form. Of course conditions have to be made better for the  people in the Gaza Strip, and the blockade needs to be lifted  immediately. I always tell my Israeli friends: 'It's also in your  security interest to treat the Palestinians as partners, to grant them  rights and to not humiliate them.'   SPIEGEL: And, last but not least, do you think you will be Egypt's next president?   ElBaradei: That's not what I'm striving for. But if people's  expectations are directed toward me, I will also not disappoint them. I  would like to remain independent and maintain a certain distance -- both  from the Muslim Brotherhood and US policy. Interview conducted by Erich Follath; translated from the German by Josh Ward(Spiegel Online International)