Summary on Venezuela 61
(De Enrique ter Horst, abogado venezolano, en los años 90 jefe de la misión ONUSAL en El Salvador)                                                                                              Caracas, 15 December 2012                 “It is absolutely necessary that Iundergo surgery within the next days” (“Es absolutamente imprescindiblesometerme a una intervención quirúrgica en los próximos dias”), President Chávez informed Venezuelans last Saturday 8 December in a nationwide radioand TV transmission which started shortly after 9:30 pm. Flanked by NationalAssembly President Diosdado Cabello to his right and Vice President NicolasMaduro to his left , and surrounded by some of his Ministers, notably his newMinister of Defense, Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia, he then went on to anointNicolas Maduro, his Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, as hispolitical successor, not only to conclude his present mandate ending on 10January, but also as the PSUV’s candidate when elections will have to be calledshould he “not be able to continue as President” (“si...se presentara unacircunstancia sobrevenida que me inhabilite para continuar al frente de laPresidencia...”). This is his fourth operation since he announced that he hadbeen struck by cancer.In his informal remarks to the nation the President took great carein emphasizing that in July, before he inscribed his candidacy, he insisted hehad undergone again all medical tests, in Venezuela as well as in Cuba, all ofwhich had proven favourable, and that if anything negative would have surfacedin those tests, he stated, “be assured that I would not have inscribed andtaken on the presidencial candidacy”. (“insistí en hacerme todos los chequeosmédicos antes de inscribir la candidatura aquí en Venezuela, en Cuba, y bueno,todos los resultados fueron favorables. Si hubiese surgido algún resultadonegativo en esos exámenes, tengan ustedes la seguridad que yo no hubieseinscrito y asumido la candidatura presidencial”). After 7 October again all tests, both in Caracas and Havana, provedsatisfactory, the President continued, but a small inflamation and some pain,probably as a consequence of the radiotherapy and of the effort during thecampaign, called for more attention. It was then decided to carry out new, moreexhaustive tests, “and well, unfortunately, and so I inform the country, inthis exhaustive revision the presence of malignous cells is detected in thesame affected area, again”. (“Decidimos entonces con el equipo medico adelantaruna revisión, una nueva revisión exhaustiva, y bueno, lamentablemente, así lodigo al país, en esa revisión exhaustiva surge la presencia, en la misma áreaafectada, de algunas células malignas, nuevamente”). For the full text inSpanish click on http://www.revolucionomuerte.org/index.php/discursos. For the videoclick on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lza6Po_biJw.          President Chávezwas operated in Havana last Tuesday 11 December, reportedly inorder to excise two vertebrae which had been invaded by the cancer. The operationlasted six hours, and he has since been in intensive care. After heavy bleedinghis condition was upgraded from “stable” to favourable” this last Thursday, butthe rumour mill had also mentioned septic shock. However, Minister ofInformation Villegas informed yesterday evening that Chávez had been able tospeak to his family.Most agree that Chávezis not likely to be sworn in a fourth time on 10 January, in which case theConstitution foresees a new presidential election to be carried out within 30days of the “absolute absence” of the President of the Republic. In such anevent the President of the National Assembly acts as President of the Republic,and calls for a presidential election (in which he cannot be a candidate), tobe held within the next thirty days.   The regime is very nervous and has taken, particularly Maduro andCabello, to attack the opposition, decrying as hypocricy its respectfulexpression of sympathy for the President. It probably would be asking too muchthat they now suddenly acted as wise statesmen dedicated to peace and thecommon good, as in these 14 years they have been assigned the role of obedientattack dogs while their Master was the only one free to intelligently reason onnationwide radio and television on values such as freedom, independence,solidarity, love and beauty. Maduro did try to correct his first veryaggressive statement, going as far as saying that the larger part of theopposition’s leadership had been sincere and that he “extended his hand to them”.This shared attitude of the two new pillars of the regime is likelyto be one the few things on which they agree, but for the time being none ofthe two is really in a position to live without the other, at least whileChávez is still President. Cabello is unlikely to ever be able to make it tothe top, given that he is very unpopular even within the PSUV and has the reputationof having become immensely rich, but he does have great influence in the ArmedForces, not only because he is a former military himself and his classmates arenow Generals, but also due to his well-known anti-Cuban stance. Should Maduro, more simpáticobut a dogmatic marxist-leninist and Havana’s man, become President, he probablywould have to dance to Cabello’s tune until he succeeds in turning around themajority with which Cabello was elected President of the National Assembly lastJanuary 5. The mandate of the President of the Assembly is renewed every year,and the incumbent can be reelected, but his term can also be cut short. IfCabello retains the Presidency of the National Assembly in early January he islikely to remain the real power behind the throne for some time, but probablynot for too long if Maduro is elected to the Presidency and becomes Commanderin Chief of the Armed Forces, as Head of State. All this has been happening in the week preceding the elections forGovernors to be held tomorrow, 16 December, and in which Henrique Caprileshopes to be reelected Governor of Miranda. If he is reelected he is likely tosecure his second candidacy to the Presidency, or sink it, in case he loses. Ifhe loses it is my guess one would have to look to Zulia and Bolivar and see ifPablo Perez and/or Andrés Velazquez win their elections, and probably also lookat other options, but time will be of the essence and a unitary candidate willagain be necessary very soon, as Maduro will be a tough candidate to beat. What does seem clear at this time is that the dogmatic, radicalrevolution championed by Chávez isno longer possible. With a difference of only 10% in the last election and in acontinent mainly of democratic nations, probably not even the Great Leaderhimself would have been able to see it through. Maduro and Cabello probablyknow that they will have to find an accomodation withthe democratic opposition, hopefully even agree on a roadmap back to theConstitution, if stability is to be secured, urgently so in view of theeconomic storm brewing over the horizon. What the 7 October election also showed is that Chávez might havesucceeded in institutionalizing a clientelistic, populist system, anchored inthe hearts of many, and that the PSUV could be on its way to becoming somethinglike the Mexican PRI; not only the largest, but also the dominant politicalparty. If, however, it were to continue to pursue its radical, totalitarianblueprint and be run by a mediocre leadership, it could also soon become muchmore repressive, ultimately risking its break-up and becoming a marginal player(s).In such a case, the PSUV’s transition to the fringes of politics couldbe a matter of years, not months. It is of the essence that the democraticopposition quickly field a unitary candidate, and that whichever side goes onto win the presidency organizes, with international assistance, a transparenttransition back to the Constitution. That will only happen once the new presidencialelection has been held and the new President is firmly in power. Don’t holdyour breath, however, not a single medical report on the President’s illnesshas ever been published. President Chávez could very well return from Havana on9 January and smilingly take the oath of office the next day.