cc may contain inaccuracies i expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year my policy gets a little more work to do i currently favor a 25 basis point increase at the fomc his next meeting takes have 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward i expect to continue tightening policy passed this meeting the fed is going to have to maintain rates at high enough levels policy is going to need to remain sufficiently restrictive for some time now at some point this year i expect that the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place just hold them in place to let monetary policy do its work we call on if necessary should adjust our overall policy strategy to keep financial conditions restrictive even as the faceless recent comments there from fed officials on the outlook for rate hikes on this next guest says a fed rate cut in 2023 is unlikely lets bring in ise market analyst tv chan thanks for joining us we heard those fed speak as they are fairly unambiguous really when it comes to the path of rates in 2023 but we see some interesting price action on the equities markets in particular we had a little mini rally in all the major us indexes on friday afternoon so is the market correctly pricing in this fed rhetoric or is that all more optimism than realism at the moment well ise my view is that i think the market definitely kind of showed a strong appetite for a bull market with either for the fact that they are projecting a rate cut by the end of this year or in terms of like a bit biased view that just focus on the positive view rather than underplay or downplaying the fundamental shortcomings were taking thats taking the methods forward one of the typical example is seeing the defense trade price jumping up of 8 percent because the ship holders are set up waiting for an actual bid and expect a subscription number while they kind of purposely downplaying the fact that week ending is actually one of the weakest in companys history its only one so for the projection number so for me i think it looks like theres a bit of a cautious sign that the strong appetite for bull market has kind of shaping the markets view to taking into more of the taking the bet news as good news while the good news still good news and coming back to the feds record which im expecting there will be something happening by the end of this year but i think youre probably too early to call every record because of all the hands of the fed those have more cash to play they could potentially keep unchanged and feel that we seeing kind of material signs of inflation too cooling down at this time of year i think inflation wise theres more factors hasnt been yet to price in we already see some easing side thats right but towards the year would potentially were seeing that chinas opening will push up the demand and push up inflation we see the japanese coming to have a quite efficient way and also the weaker us dollars well they are the uncertainty that will be underpinning the feds decisions to declare the first rate cut rate cut i want to return to your thoughts on china in just a moment but in terms of the us i mean we have seen the s  p fall below its 200 day moving average do you feel that there is a risk we can test 50 days well yeah definitely as i said if youre looking for the past three weeks time the s  p 500 has been up about 4 percent and there is a level that we often seen for the bull market and doesnt necessarily match what we have been projecting or what is the fundamental picture that we put paper to talk you to destroy so for that again i think back to my point i think the market is trying to downplay the fundamental shortcoming for the early year of the of the took for the early days of the 2020 story theres a bit of the overly optimistic there so again i think its quite possible that were seeing kind of a retest and there the optimism will come into a real test where we see a more economy follow mental pictures that has surface of course there was a lot of enthusiasm around the china reopening that the bumps in the road of getting out of covid zero policy not withstanding but is that reopening trade starting to look a little tired to you well first of all i agree with that chinas reopening is definitely one of the major positive academies for 2010 history but while id be cautious about is that what i see the market price action now as you push touch on before that the chinese in their 20s stock has jumped about 50 percent in three months time for my view i think theres a bit of the overdo and its a bit of the overpriced in an optimistic about what the recovery could do while that we know chinas been struggling is still struggling was probably one of the worst actually wait and putting aside that if we turning back the clock back into 2019 if someone telling you that chinas economy going to grow at 4 percent and population will stop growing that you put it not the positive but this will happen in the market now and one last factor which im also always cautious about is that the major issues for chinas economy the property crisis the credit crisis the manufacturing crisis all not the issues can be easily fixed by the re opening so im positive for the chinese re opening but i just think the markets move a bit far away to advise at this stage and how about commodities that trade around the china reopening how are they looking to you at the moment in terms of price action well im mostly for only the gold price because we can see the gold prices coming to the highest levels in eight months in nine months time and surpass the nineteen hundred and that is being quietly boosted by the supply and demand mechanic especially were seeing that for example the bbc the peoples bank of china has been increased their gold reserves for the fourth quarter times and past the powerful china were seeing the other central banks globally wise that were seeing that has been coming to the level that we havent seen since 1988 so 1960s so this a kind of happening is always a weaker us dollars the central banks trying to play down us dollars while they increase their appetite for the precious go so if that is the its that we are expecting the us dollar will continue to weakening towards the end of this year of course we can expect more of a demand for the gold price