the us dollar and treasury bond yields are rebounding aggressively on monday april 17 as investors fear that a lack of recessionary threats will force the federal reserve to keep monetary conditions tight for an extended period of time this follows the latest betterthanexpected readings in the new york empire state manufacturing survey and university of michigan consumer sentiment index the us dollar index dxy which is tracked by the invesco db usd index bullish fund etf uup climbed above 102 levels up 06 on the day and on track to post its second straight session of gains us treasury yields spiked with the twoyear yield rising 420 the highest since march 22 the 10year yield surging to 36 the highest since the end of march the ishares 20 treasury bond etf tlt is down 13 on monday on track to post its fourth straight session of declines read also best bond etfs right now fed futures presently attribute a probability of 86 for a 25basispoint increase in the federal funds rate in may according to the latest cme group fedwatch tool despite the fact that this is assumed to be the federal reserves final rate hike speculators are now doubting whether policymakers would be ready to cut rates in the months to come with bets on rate cuts for julys and septembers fomc meetings being reduced new york empire state manufacturing activity rebounds dismissing imminent recessionary fears business activity in new york state grew for the first time in five months according to the april 2023 empire state manufacturing survey the overall business conditions indicator increased from 246 in march to 108 in april markedly above market expectations of 18 new orders and shipments increased while delivery times remained stable and stockpiles increased despite the rise in activity employment and hours worked fell for the third month in a row input price rises slowed but selling prices climbed at the same rate as the previous month businesses continue to anticipate little change in conditions over the next six months the robust print of manufacturing activity in new york state in april along with a rise in overall consumer confidence published by the university of michigan is reducing worries that the us economy may shortly enter a recession dxy is back above 102 again now testing the 2023 bearish trendline the dxy index has retraced more than the 236 of the 2023 hightolow range and is presently testing the key bearish trendline of 2023 if a breakout occurs in today’s session the next key resistance level is 10275 382 fibonacci retracement and then 10335 50 fibonacci and 50day moving average