crude oil prices will average just under 78 a barrel this year as members of major producers struggle to hike supplies at the same pace as rebounding demand according to a wall street journal survey of analysts forecasts prices for brent crude the international oil benchmark will stand at 7776 a barrel this year declining to 7425 in 2023 according to the average of forecasts taken from 12 major banks the 2021 forecast is the highest average annual forecast record by the wall street journal since january 2016 prices are expected to average just over 79 a barrel in the first and second quarters of 2022 before creeping lower to just over 75 a barrel by the first quarter of 2023 analysts say current conditions in energy markets appear to be the most bullish in years demand for oil is recovering from its pandemicinduced decline at a strong clip while major producing nations have been slow to turn supply taps back on meanwhile global efforts to transition to more environmentally friendly energy sources have constrained investment in new supply members of the organization of the petroleum exporting countries and a group of allied producers led by russia have pledged collective production hikes but have so far failed to deliver many opec nations are struggling with aging energy infrastructure which has hampered supply increases last month opec and its allies increased their collective output by 250000 barrels a day just 60 of what it had pledged for the month according to the international energy agency geopolitical tensions in the middle east and eastern europe have further lifted prices the threat of war between russia and ukraine imperils europes access to russian energy supplies while recent attacks on the uae by yemens houthis have risked damaging the gulf states energy infrastructure oil watchers are concerned that dwindling inventories and a lack of spare production capacity mean there is little to cushion the impact of a sudden shock to supply the situation has prompted some forecasters to suggest oil could rise back above 100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 morgan stanley expects oil to average that level for the third and fourth quarters of the year while bank of america expects oil to average 95 a barrel in the second quarter the survey suggests however that such forecasts remain outliers and most analysts expect price gains to be more modest write to will horner at williamhornerwsjcom