the bank of england faces a trickier tightrope though with the uk tipped to be the worstperforming major economy over the next two years and inflation considerably higher than peers barclays economists on friday suggested that the mpc may follow the lead of its transatlantic counterpart and that a new qualifier might signal that the end is in sight the british lender expects a 25 basis point hike consistent with data and developments since march based on a 72 split with external members silvana tenreyro and swati dhingra voting to keep rates on hold we think the mpc will keep options open in a balanced manner reiterating that evidence of persistent inflationary pressures could require further tightening while signalling that it might pause if data comes in line with mpr projections chief european economist silvia ardagnas team said all this and updated projections should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the june meeting to a terminal rate of 475 alongside the rate decision the mpc will update its forecasts on thursday barclays expects a more upbeat growth outlook and shallower mediumterm inflation path than in februarys projections due largely to lower energy prices additional fiscal support announced in the governments spring budget and more resilient household consumption underpinned by a tighter labor market this updated guidance would enable the bank to skip hiking at its june meeting and potentially move to hiking alongside each monetary policy report mpr every three months contingent on economic data thus while our base case remains for a final hike in june we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in august ardagnos team said deutsche bank senior economist sanjay raja echoed the projections for a 72 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on thursday followed by another quarterpoint in june he does not expect any changes in the forward guidance and suggested the mpc would reiterate its data dependence and look to retain as much flexibility as possible heading into the next meeting policymakers will be waiting to see how their tightening of financial conditions over the last year has fed through into the real economy services cpi consumer prices index and average wage growth will be of particular interest to the mpc raja suggested risks are skewed towards a more dovish pivot with the mpc putting more stock in the lags in monetary policy transmission implicitly this could indicate a preference for potential hikes during mpr meetings giving the mpc more time to assess incoming data raja said the central bank projected in february that the consumer price index cpi inflation rate will drop from the annual 101 recorded in march to just 15 in the fourth quarter of 2024 raja suggested the most interesting aspect of thursdays report for the market will be any perceived change in the mpcs confidence in its outlook which will give the clearest indication as to whether policymakers believe they can get inflation back to its 2 target over two and threeyear horizons the risk of a dovish tilt in the bank of englands guidance was also flagged by bnp paribas economists who believe thursday will prove to be the end of the banks tightening cycle we dont think the mpc will signal as such with the forward guidance likely to remain suitably vague about the future policy path but risks appear skewed towards a dovish inflection particularly given alreadyelevated market pricing for further hikes in our view bnp chief europe economist paul hollingsworth and his team said in a note friday