the united states’ longstanding economic “exceptionalism” will fade as the 21st century wears on goldman sachs economists predicted tuesday in a widesweeping outlook for the global economy which also outlined the greatest threats to growth worldwide china’s gross domestic product will surpass that of the us in about 2035 the goldman group led by kevin daly and tadas gedminas wrote while india’s gdp will narrowly surpass the us’ in about 2075 the us currently has the largest economy in the world by far with 23 trillion in 2021 gdp according to the world bank’s data while china has the secondlargest gdp at 18 trillion and india the sixthlargest at 3 trillion goldman forecasts further upheaval among traditional economic powerhouses projecting indonesia and nigeria to round out the five largest economies by 2075 despite not ranking in the top 15 economies today with japan falling from third to 12th the united kingdom from sixth to 10th and germany from fourth to ninth countries forecasted to slip in economic power have one thing in common less potential for population growth and slowing global population growth worldwide means the “highwater mark of global potential growth” has already occurred according to goldman noting global gdp gains will embark on a “gradually declining path” in 2030 and beyond also periling the global economy are the immense costs associated with climate change and a likely increase in trade restrictions dubbed “slowbalization” according to goldman noting the need for greater cooperation between nations to ensure future economic growth the us has been the largest economy in the world by gdp since the metric came into favor in the mid1900s but china has grown at a far greater pace in recent decades with its gdp growing from just 12 of the us’ in 2000 to 77 last year though the global population reached eight billion people last month according to the united nations the organization reports a significantly slowing rate of population growth especially in wealthier countries the us population grew by just 01 in 2021 the lowest rate ever recorded in the country’s 246year history according to the census bureau due to pandemicrelated deaths combined with a slowing birth rate long considered a foregone conclusion by most economists the question of whether china will overtake the us as the foremost economic superpower has come under renewed scrutiny recently with some experts pointing to a recent slowdown associated with china’s stringent pandemic policies and the country’s aging population however goldman still forecasts 4 gdp growth for china between 2024 and 2029 compared to 19 growth for the us even with a downward revision elon musk the world’s wealthiest man by our calculations has repeatedly cautioned about what he calls “population collapse” deeming it the “biggest problem” in the world in coming decades musk the father of at least 10 children quipped in july his prolific parenthood is him “doing my best to help the underpopulation crisis” what does world economy look like through 2075 here’s what goldman sachs thinks bloomberg ‘worst is yet to come’ imf cuts economic outlook and warns global inflation still hasn’t peaked forbes will china and india become the world’s top economies it depends forbes