weve seen this rally the stealth rally underway for the s  p for a few days now is it exhausted are you exhausted at this point i think everybodys exhausted thats for sure i mean the markets have a way of doing that to all of us even in bull markets i think people get exhausted but but this has been a particularly trying year because nothing has worked right not bonds or stocks and even commodities peaked back in april so its just been a central pooper of years we say and were tired this you want to get it over with lets just get it back i fear that so i think the market i agree with you what jeff is saying i think that that yields you know pretty much priced the fed at this point doesnt mean theyre going straight down but you know the risk in the market for the equity market is on the growth side right weve been on that case for the last three or four months and we still hold that view however you know markets dont trade in a straight line and so were you know were getting a bit of a rally here we think that can last for a month or two because were not sure the earnings are going to come down fast enough to convince the market how bad twenty three is going to be on the earnings front ok lets just talk about the timeline around this a little bit more detail youre seeing right everybody just wants this to be over they want the bottom to be in they want capitulation i think everybodys got used to very truncated and short timeframes i remember you remember you speaking at the beginning of this whole episode talking about the fight you think that this was going to be an accelerated cycle where all we in the cycle because the markets going to moods maybe where the economic reality do seem to be in different places at the moment well thats right i mean we call this the hotter bit shorter cycle and you know everything since the covid lockdown has progressed at an accelerated pace like we havent seen really in any of our careers so now as weve been saying the kind of final chapter to this bear market probably will be fast as well you know if wed had this conversation three months ago wed probably ted i thought we could have this all wrapped up by thanksgiving and maybe have a nice ending to the holiday period and say ok we can move forward but unfortunately i think it may linger into next year but either way thats a pretty darn fast cycle when you think about the economic cycle this time started in may of 2020 and you know were not even three years into it and were already talking about recession so this is all happening kind of the plan markets always you know dont trade exactly along with that but we think were run path now and have a finishing move were just going to be all about the earnings disappointments which is good when is that reckoning of earnings disappointment i thought it was second quarter i thought it was third quarter earnings is it gonna be the fourth quarter in the next year well we never thought it would be all done by the second quarter but we thought there was a chance we could be done by the end of this earnings season were losing a little bit of hope in that our faith in that because were just not seeing the willingness of companies yet to throw in the towel you know its interesting alex you know markets where theres a bond market where the stock market has become somewhat addicted to guidance ok for the bond market its the fed and for equity markets its company management teams and so the bottom argues is waiting for the fed to come out and say were done and the bond market will get in front of that even though it already knows youre probably closer to the end of the beginning its a sad thing for stocks i mean every investor we talked to knows your earnings are too high for next year but just the rts remain very sticky on the upside because companies have to throw in the towel so you know its a process that always takes longer than should we think it definitely will be done by the end of first quarter of the fourth quarter earnings season which is you know basically january but it could be done as soon as november december is ftse sees it goes