we were talking about this earlier this idea that maybe theres a bit of jawboning going on that they sound very hawkish but all of this is going to be still data dependent could the data actually show that some of these factors are in fact transitory it could so if you start looking at the combined effect of the fact that consumers are shifting away from goods which was driving a lot of inflation up to 2 services tourism is opening lanes are going again all that stuff is creating that shift the enemy component is also going to flatter a bit as you look at it possible to get mass march and april and ftse the fed is doing to tighten financial conditions could actually result in some tightening of financial conditions so stock market is still holed up really well but you know if theres a downturn that it goes at risk assets that creates tighter financial conditions and put all that together you could see some surprises on down the downside where are you referring to to tweak your poll your your strategy that because you actually started out the year looking outside of the us but now youre coming back into the us yeah so we did expecting that you know on the eurozone side that just a move away from the fiscal compact the fact that energy eu is being launched in the next finnish european union fund and really expecting that as covid related opening was more widespread across all of em everything outside the us looked a little bit better now as we look at this in the context of the russia ukraine crisis the big ive been covid infections in china the fact that all of that is really putting a damper on energy prices specifically in europe that has a bit more cautious and i think our take on more crises like situation that we have in russia ukraine is those tend to go on for a long time the longer they go on the more the pressurised risk assets so on balance we decided to both cut back a bit on risk assets and then do a shift more towards quantity so pivoting from rest the world back to the us and then incrementally building hedges but also a real growth standpoint we do like commodities still so holding them in our portfolio both you know all kinds of materials but also real assets but also precious metal as well to gold in your notes you have a contrarian market view which it says even small cap stocks can you explain this for me so do you like them or do you hate them i mean i dont get that considering what youre saying right now so on large cap em we have concerns on spoke ibm less herself the smaller ibm is benefiting actually from some of the stresses so supply chain side small cap firms have more pricing power small caps farms a lesser depended on global credit conditions that global financial conditions smaller cap firms have actually been able to preserve margins and in fact its one of the rarest sectors where youve seen almost a 4 percent expansion in ottawa between december 2019 and december 2021 so that makes that segment a bit one interesting it also has a lesser exposure to china and more to korea taiwan india and all those three economies have really benefited in the last two years from from all the stresses that have occurred and the export orientation so one large cap em brad stone still on small cap which is exposed to domestic stories not exposed to the stresses that were facing around you dont oil and coal mining and all those things that are global in nature thats really interesting especially when we do have prices continuing to rise and youre expecting these smaller companies to struggle with margins what do you think so in our experience talking with this one two companies discuss what that is which separates these companies were finding that theyre being able to ask through a good chunk of the price hikes and you can imagine that many of these companies are smaller components in a global supply chain larger companies to meet demand are willing to pass this cost on to willing to take the cost thats coming from these companies so thats what is keeping allowing them to preserve the margins and as i said youve seen an actual expansion in are we in these markets again all the things you get and when you look at smaller companies the fact that theres been a move to digitization commerce covid lighting those types of things also benefiting these companies and again i need to stress that lesser exposure to 25 percent exported to china and the large cap benchmark will only twelve percent of the small cap okay