welcome to the bloomberg surveillance newsletter a daily look at the best interviews and insights from bloomberg television and radio’s flagship morning show cohosted by tom keene jonathan ferro and me sign up here if you’re not yet a newsletter subscriber this years rally in stocks and riskier bonds has upended the most wellreasoned theories and traders so its easy to forgive a growing number of investors who say for now why not just lean into the gains and go with the flow as peter tchir of academy securities noted yesterday in a note “dont fight consensus in december and august” and as invescos brian levitt put it “for now we make hay while the sun shines” thats not to say you can always just ignore the potential clouds on the horizon stifel nicolaus’s barry bannister voiced concern that the market is “a few points overvalued” but other guests suggested that maybe for now you can just be in the moment especially since the economic data could be construed as telling a pretty rosy story when all the tightening starts to work its way into the economy were going to see the economy roll over a bit levitt said on surveillance this morning markets go through these phases and right now this is a market thats feeling like a recovery trade its probably not the recovery trade you probably give back some of this in early 2024” before an eventual federal reserve easing starts the next cycle for good tallbacken capital advisors’ michael purves summed up the view of a number of surveillance guests as he outlined the tug of war between his heart and his head “in the number of years i’ve been doing this i’ve never been more sort of intellectually tormented” purves said “you look at some of these charts it could be sugar futures it could be whatever the charts look incredible incredibly bullish you don’t want to get short that chart” sentiment is running so high that traders are leaning into the softlanding narrative even as some data keep popping up to suggest a different outcome “what we’re seeing in the market though is that people are reacting to the pieces of data that confirm the soft landing and ignoring parts of the data that may be pointing to a more significant deceleration or even to potentially very sticky inflation down the road bank of new york mellon’s sonia meskin said “i do think we’re seeing a deceleration is it real cracks that are going to put us into recession next year or is it just a stabilization from very high levels of activity in the recovery postcovid” wall street’s wakeup call today came from asia again after friday’s bank of japan surprise on yield curve control the boj jolted investors in the us with overnight action today announcing an unscheduled bondpurchase operation china added to the shock beijing took a calibrated stand on new stimulus  the likeliest outcome of china’s slowdown is a “growth recession” high frequency economics’ carl weinberg said with the expansion continuing but at a rate of perhaps only 1 to 3 that is “way short of what they want which is in the 6 range” brown brothers harriman’s win thin is casting a wary eye around the region and beyond “i’m much more cautious on asia right now mostly because of china” thin said spillover from japan’s tweaks to the government bond market where trading was once so moribund it barely qualified as a market is also in focus according to thin and tallbacken capital advisors’ purves thin said japanese investors who once only looked abroad will have to consider the lure of higher yields in their backyard “the world has gotten accustomed to sopping up japanese funds” thin said “at the margins i think we’ll see more japanese funds come home and be more domestically focused” iowa’s weekend of presidential politicking marked another step in the quickening of the 2024 campaign the biggest gop names flocked to the first caucus state and a new york timessiena college poll out today showed more of the same with donald trump far out front “it looks like he owns the party right now and he’s being treated like the incumbent president you know ‘how dare you challenge him’” said wendy schiller at brown university’s alfred taubman center for american politics  policy trump’s grip is problematic for the party schiller said he has proved toxic to the independent voters needed to win the white house and if he echoes his baseless 2020 fraud allegations after any primary setbacks the republicans risk further fractures in their own ranks she said schiller said ron desantis and other challengers can’t wait for trump’s hardcore supporters to magically lose heart because of his growing legal peril trump diehards might not want to hear their champion criticized and a gop crowd booed longshot hopeful will hurd for doing so but the lessons from the times poll were clear schiller said “if you are the opposition you have to go after trump directly” she said buckle up you have a busy week not all calendars are created equal investors face an incredibly busy run of earnings economic data and central bank action   remember the sloos the fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices will offer a window on credit conditions later today   corporate america cranks up another huge week of earnings with 169 sp 500 companies reporting ​​​ apple inc and amazoncom inc tie a bow a massive bow on big tech earnings on thursday tom’s point today those two titans are so important that we should consider their results as economic data   first in first out brazil’s central bank was early to the ratehiking cycle and economists are projecting a cut on wednesday that may be an important bellwether for other emerging markets on the other end of the spectrum the bank of england is likely to dial up another 25 basis points on thursday   friday brings the us jobs report for july the consensus for nonfarm payrolls plus 200000 bloomberg surveillance is live weekdays from 6 to 9 am new york time watch on bloomberg television on the terminal at 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