we keep seeing this lack of conviction right the jitters you see when it comes to market sentiment what do you do at this point when you see a trading session meant  session like last night   when you see things you do not expect you try to be more conservative frankly my barings colleagues have been more conservative this year given the rise of uncertainty around inflation but also growth what seems to have hit the market today is that half of the investors who were worried about inflation have to worry about growth and there is nobody there to work  look through the gloom to see where things settle   so i the moment what would you advise a longer term investor to do given the bread th of uncertainty with the global economy   our view is with the shock of the market is seeing now there are two things first we have had investors for the most part who have lived through three or four decades of declining interest rates rising multiples for equities and strong earnings for the most part now you are entering a new phase where we are not really sure where inflation will level off that means it  s hard to know what the appropriate multiple is for earnings the us economy is fundamentally strong the us consumers aside from the lowest income levels is still very strong companies are ready to have very good balance sheets we have just come through and earnings season that was relatively good aside from what we are today from a few key companies it is hard to time when we will see a bottom here but it is important to understand it is a long way from a recession in the us and you should position yourself with companies that have good business models and are likely to have good balance sheets to whether the current volatility those are the places where you will do well   in the meantime we continue to see this is safe haven demand continue to accumulate whether it is with the dollar or gold or the japanese yen how do you hedge   i think as you and your colleague described in the other conversation when you have this stagflation shock higher inflation lower growth there are very few places to hide in the nearterm you could hide in cash you could go to safe havens like the yen or us treasuries but it  s important not to overreact going into the downturn when you see market corrections like this the evaluations are clearly much better than they were a few weeks ago again you have to pick stocks you have to pick companies that are resilient fees  to these pressures you find them in a lot of different sectors you find the right management the right business models and balance sheet strength to whether the uncertainty our colleagues in credit in the highyield sector are finding good opportunities with firms that do not have immediate refinancing needs   how are you factoring in the geopolitical overlay here in panama city one of the biggest conversations of the day has been then near shoring friend shoring idea that they want to bring the supply chains here to latin america to get closer to the united states if you want an american supply chain the western hemisphere another for china europe wanted don  t supply chain it  wants its own supply chain it  s incredibly inflationary as is how do you trade that   it is hard to traded without understanding what is behind the administration  s policy when it talks about friend shoring there is a lot of effort underway to bring important parts of the technology supply chain particularly semiconductors into jurisdictions where we feel they are more stable and accessible whether you have to do that for your clothing and your foreign archer  furniture in your toys is another question i think most of the global supply chains in place today are likely to stay as in place as they are currently because they make more sense they will shift us different market opportunities shift what i think the term friend shoring is really focused on is some of these key mainly tech sometimes defenserelated sectors where those will shift i cannot really see an overall reorganization of our supply chains carried it to the extreme   valuations are looking very compelling in china tencent said the recovery will be slow there is lots of short and midterm uncertainty do you have longterm confidence in the china growth story   he definitely sidestepped the question from our perspective it is hard to know in the nearterm what will be going on china is going through tough times now there is every expectation that the government has the economic tools it needs to support credit targeting certain sectors particularly the real estate sector that has suffered so much offering some regulatory if not relief at least certainty in the nearterm for the technology sector i think the big concern is obviously the covid spread antilockdown  s in the measures it has taken i think that is something we are all struggling with around the world if the government is able to manage through that i think