bengaluru feb 18 reuters  thailands economy likely returned to growth in the fourth quarter thanks to robust exports and easing of covid19 curbs but the suspension of a quarantine waiver for foreign tourists probably dented the recovery a reuters poll found growth in the tourismdependent economy rebounded last quarter to 07 yearonyear after shrinking 03 in the julyseptember period according to the median forecast of 12 economists polled feb 1117 on a quarterly basis gross domestic product gdp was expected to grow by a seasonallyadjusted 14 during the same period after contracting 11 the previous quarter the data will be released on feb 21 forecasts ranged from 04 to 19 highlighting the uncertainties surrounding the recovery in the southeast asias second largest economy from the pandemic we expect the strong improvement in merchandise exports would help the economy to slowly return to expansion in the fourth quarter said charnon boonnuch an economist at nomura however with the stillsluggish recovery in foreign tourist arrivals despite the border reopening in november we expect the recovery to be gradual and highly uneven still growth is yet to return to prepandemic levels and the recovery remains fragile with the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant weighing on the tourism industry even with rising vaccination rates and the gradual easing of global travel restrictions only a fraction of foreign tourists are expected this year compared with precovid19 levels the economy is expected to grow 39 this year and 41 in 2023 according to a separate reuters poll published last month the concern over the omicron outbreak and temporary suspension of the testgo tourism program in late decemberjanuary would affect the economic recovery and delay an international tourism recovery in early 2022 wrote lattakit lapudomkarn economist at kiatnakin phatra securities however we expect the impact should be shortlived as the outbreak has proven less severe than expected reporting by vivek mishra polling by devayani sathyan and md manzer hussain editing by kim coghill