an economic index that measures us business cycles rose in march pointing to continued but moderate growth in the shortterm despite increasing headwinds the leading economic index compiled by the conference board increased 03 to 1198 in march down from a revised 06 advance in february the private research group said thursday economists polled by the wall street journal expected the index to increase 02 the us lei rose again in march despite headwinds from the war in ukraine said ataman ozyildirim senior director of economic research at the conference board the conference board leading economic index is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around seven months it is based on 10 components among them initial claims for unemployment insurance manufacturers new orders building permits of new private housing units stock prices and consumers expectations it is intended to signal swings in the business cycle and to smooth out some of the volatility of individual indicators march registered a broadbased improvement signaling that economic growth is likely to continue through 2022 despite volatile stock prices and weakening business and consumer expectations mr ozyildirim said the conference board expects the us economy to expand by 3 this year down from the 35 expected before russias invasion of ukraine downside risks to the growth outlook remain associated with intensification of supplychain disruptions and inflation linked to lingering pandemic shutdowns and the war as well as with tightening monetary policy and persistent labor shortages mr ozyildirim said the coincident economic index a measure of current economic activity climbed 04 in march to 1087 the lagging economic index rose 06 to 1109 the report said