we have the bank of america fund manager survey pointing to potentially a market bottom in the first quarter of 2023 where they you see it happening well i think it may take a little bit longer for a durable bottom to take place looking back the last 12 recessions none of them saw a market bottom before the recession actually started and given the strength that were seeing in industrial production earlier this week the jobs numbers from a couple of weeks ago and just the labor market broadly speaking i think were at least a quarter maybe two quarters out from the start of this recession overall so thinking about earnings expectations on next twelve months only down about 2 percent typically over the last three recessions earnings expectations have moved down closer to 26 percent and even if you strip out the global financial crisis negative 19 percent so no matter how you slice it you have a very optimistic earnings and even though you have some negative sentiment from an investor standpoint i think the path of least resistance for the market over the next couple of quarters is is choppy but down will this be different from previous times after the global financial crisis anytime we had these huge market draw downs we sort of saw that v shaped recovery in the markets i think it may be a little bit different you know over the last 40 years every time youve had weaker economic backdrops you had a fed that cut rates in order to stimulate the next cycle higher and that durable market bottom today the fed is clearly focused on price stability and listening to recent fomc committee members most of them want to get policy too restrictive which is a fed funds rate north of 4 percent and keep it there for a prolonged period of time to fully stamp out inflation and achieve their 2 percent inflation goal on a sustainable basis so if the fed isnt likely going to pivot it might not be a year or maybe longer for them to cut rates you may not see that v shaped recovery weve been accustomed to over the last number of cycles so it could be a a choppy environment for a longer period than people are anticipating of course one of the things weve come to rely on during this period of enhanced inflation and fed tightening is a very very strong us dollar is this procured precluding you from looking at any global markets outside of the us right now well global valuations are very cheap especially compared to their 20 year medians whether youre looking at the uk the eurozone or japan for example obviously getting some more insight on china obviously the zero tolerance policies are going to be with us for at least the next year im not necessarily expecting a huge burst of growth from the chinese economy with the chinese consumer reluctant probably to reengage with the economy in a more durable basis so given this overhang and the likelihood that the us economy is going into recession next year i think it may be a little bit early to re risk and really think about global markets on a longer term basis i think youre probably going to have a better opportunity sometime in 2023 all right so whenever the market bottom yet so what is the key risk for you going forward i think the key risk is is front and center which is a fed that has to push even harder become even more hawkish than whats being priced in right now thinking about the us consumer household leverage is at levels last seen in the early 1970s so they may be less interest rate sensitive than they have been historically also with lower energy prices and potentially lower inflation if wages remain relatively sticky real purchasing power may continue to support consumption also if you dont see the labor market roll over in a more durable fashion the fed may need to raise rates more than whats being anticipated and lastly if corporations hold on to their labor because its been arguably the scarcest commodity of this this cycle and margin deterioration is just starting to happen this all could result in a situation that although the fed has a terminal rate or the markets are pricing in a terminal rate of 5 percent it may have to go higher than that and ultimately cause a deeper recession