let me start on the potential santa claus rally that you see ahead what will drive the gains well we already had some of that since midoctober when we saw that the vix started coming down that coincided negatively related with the s  p ended now coming up we have a few bad days but i think thats a good entry point given the fact that we expect the next catalyst being next week with the cpi coming out which we believe will come on a favorable levels in the april and seen meeting which will hint that well have lower rate hikes and further apart so that will be pretty bullish news for the markets which will push the markets higher towards the end of the year so how does the strength of the dollar factor in into 2023 so thats an interesting topic so we had two consecutive gdp readings that were below zero and then one that was above zero but if it hadnt been for the soaring dollar we would have had actually have an minus point five percent gdp reading on q3 now we expect that to come out because what were seeing is that the rising dollar did not affect buyers behavior it was a very short time when we saw that imports continue to drop and exports continue to rise when you reverse that which will happen going forward because usually when the dollar goes up you have imports go down and exports so exports going down an inquest sum up when you have the reverse well actually see a benefit sorry it will actually have a disadvantage to the gdp which will reflect on lower gdp numbers going forward two out of this year of course with corporate earnings coming down for every 50 billion loss in earnings given minus one percent reduction in gdp and you have housing coming way down how do you feel about the consumer at this point because we heard the alarm bells being sounded by the us banking chiefs right and so much of that was focused on deterioration in household balance sheets and sentiment we agree that where were going into a mild recession however our contrarian view here and the reason why we did not think thats going to be a strong recession is that unemployment will stay low first of all you have the tech layoffs and many of them are people on h1 b visas theyre young foreigners and h1 h1 bs do not get unemployment and secondly you have baby boomers you have said the 8 million baby boomers retiring with a rate of 4 million a year and they have delayed retirement because of inflation so now we have an amount of 10 to 20 million reluctant workers as we call them that when they come of retirement age that will be beneficial to unemployment levels and will help maintain them at lower levels when you take a look at this particular retail season youre saying that theyre not going to be participating in this santa claus rally if we dont get one is this an indication of the the dislocation and perhaps i guess we can say the wrong emphasis when it comes to how theyve managed supply chains going into this holiday season definitely so so really years were preparing themselves for supply chain issues that we had in the past but now we have excessive inventory which will have to shed by even more of these guns reader wisconsin were only observing pre christmas this comes at the same time we need to remember that inflation gonna be a big bite out of consumers pockets so even though in nominal terms the amongst men spend might be equal to the previous periods we do expect adjusted for inflation to be lower so we are also following the tech rout right now and heidi alluded to the state of the economy how banking ceos really have talked about consumption really taking a hit we saw the layoffs starting and the hiring freeze is starting in the tech sector first what do you expect for this industry in 2023 and as we see the cooling off in the tech side of things do you expect all workers to be affected equally we expect that we outperform all other categories in 2012 23 thats because inflation will start coming down when inflation was rising in tech was hit the hardest now you have the reverse effect will outperform all other categories that being said we have a fundamental change in how we view tech we now focus more on the bottom line rather than the top line so we do not want to see companies trying to have a big stop line at the expense of profits so we are very happy sometimes when we see cost containment and of course that also includes layoffs and fortunately layoffs are bad for people and for assault solid social reasons but in tech and in the market sometimes they are viewed from a beneficial perspective let me end up with our post question which surely is straightforward and its the one that you know if you had a crystal ball i think wed all benefit from when do you see the fed potentially being forced to reverse course and actually cut rates we expect that 50 basis points in december rate hike and then we expect fewer in 2023 much further apart and from two to three 25 basis points in total in 2023 so we expect bias by the summer it will will end with a rate hikes and of course when that happens thats going to affect the markets its going to push the markets higher and again technology we believe its going to benefit the most