wednesday market open as republicans and democrats wrestle for control of the house and senate after tuesday’s vote the atmosphere is subdued on wall street neither party gained obvious control of the capitol based on results available early this morning and the market traded nearly unchanged ahead of the opening bell it’s unclear whether we’ll know today which party triumphed and uncertainty doesn’t play to wall street’s strengths an impressive rally heading into election day hangs in the balance predictions of a “red wave” didn’t seem to materialize overnight despite expectations of its likelihood over the past few sessions if results turn the other way certain sectors like energy and health care that posted significant gains over the last month could become vulnerable to a potential pullback having said that the most likely outcome still appears to be marketfriendly gridlock in washington though it may be a while until we know who controls the senate due to a possible runoff election in georgia wall street tends to like it when things don’t get done in washington and is particularly sensitive now to any emerging fiscal policies that might blunt the federal reserve’s attempts to slow the economy division in dc would have a chance of slowing any major changes in congress’s spending over the next two years if you want gridlock a split congress is probably the best scenario for the markets volatility shifted into slightly higher gear yesterday and remains above recent lows see more below but so far it doesn’t point to a major selloff shaping up as we know that can change quickly if you’re trading today consider extra caution because news developments could have an impact a few alarm bells rang yesterday even before a single vote was counted   first the cboe volatility index® vix jumped 4 and climbed back above 25 it then traded above 26 for a while overnight that might not be too surprising considering the election but it could be something to keep an eye on if the vix continues rising and looks like it might test 30 that would suggest the rally might be flagging it’s odd for the vix and stocks to rise at the same time and suggests one or the other may need to turn around   in addition major stock indexes closed well off their peak levels the sp 500® index spxwasn’t able to preserve intraday gains that at one point pushed it above 3856 the level it closed at last tuesday before the federal reserve and fed chairman jerome powell put their elbows in the market’s eye settling above that level might’ve been technically helpful   also the russell 2000® rut smallcap index actually lost a little ground tuesday and sometimes its moves can be a harbinger of things to come for the broader market   behind the election headlines tuesday was a terrible day allaround for cryptocurrencies and the stocks related to them bitcoin fell to a twoyear low tuesday following a merger between binance and ftx the two largest crypto exchanges in what binance called a “liquidity crunch” it’s another volatility event for cryptorelated stocks which arguably aren’t for the faint of heart while this may summon fears of “contagionrisk” meaning an impact on broader markets any contagion would likely spread only to the riskier parts of the market   disney dis earnings and outlook disappointed pushing shares sharply lower this could weigh on the dow jones industrial average dji as dis is a component in the meantime the market continues to get a tailwind from the us dollar index dxy which fell again tuesday and closed below 110 for the first time since september 19 this gave gold gc a boost as frontmonth futures closed above 1700 an ounce for the first time in a while gold might also have found buyers looking for perceived safety as the crypto market sagged though no investment is truly “safe” beyond the election a couple of fed speakers are out on the circuit today sometimes their words can increase volatility and september wholesale inventories are due at 10 am et the weekly crude oil inventories report from the energy information administration later this morning is another report to look out for considering recent low energy inventoriestotal us crude stocks recently fell to levels not seen in more than a decade partly due to the government’s heavy withdrawal of supplies from the strategic petroleum reserve spr election fireworks or not earnings keep on coming yesterday afternoon brought results from dis and this morning investors got a look at homebuilder dr horton dhi electric carmaker rivian rivn is expected to report this afternoon dis earnings ended up disappointing wall street and maybe america’s main street too shares plummeted more than 8 after the closing bell due to the company missing analysts’ earnings and revenue expectations no fireworks there except for disney subscriber additions which easily beat wall street’s estimates dis came up short in nearly every category investors follow including theme park revenue part of the problem on that side of the business is the continued covid19related shutdown of the company’s shanghai theme park something dis has no control over still investors had plenty to contemplate among things dis does control it’s about to launch an adsupported streaming tier even as the advertising market looks increasingly soft that appears to be one thing rattling investors dhi earnings also disappointed and shares fell both earnings per share eps and revenue came up short of wall street’s expectations no one who follows the mortgage market should be surprised to hear that dhi saw sales orders fall double digits and the cancellation rate jump in its press release dhi referred to these headwinds but also noted that home supplies remain tight and demographics favor the housing market over the longer term shares of rivn have had a nice run since posting a 52week low below 19 back in june they quickly accelerated back up above 30 and managed to stay there even making a couple recent runs to 40 one boost came from the company’s deal to supply electric delivery vans to amazon amzn they’ve already supplied the first 1000 electric vans in what’s expected to ultimately be a 100000van fleet look for updates on that in rivn’s earnings call the question according to trade media is whether rivn can keep up with production goals amid inflation concerns rising interest rates climbing labor costs and tighter profit margins the company will likely provide updates on those challenges as well october’s consumer price index cpi report arrives thursday morning before the market opens and looms large as the second half of the week gets underway consensus on wall street is for   headline cpi growth of 07 compared with 04 in september   core cpi growth of 05 compared with 06 in september the expected large jump in headline cpi likely reflects higher food and energy prices both of which get stripped out of the core cpi number a slowdown in core cpi might get a positive market response even if it’s accompanied by a higher headline number simply because food and energy prices are so volatile month to month keep an eye on housing costs too which make up an outsized percentage of the cpi back in september housing prices rose 07 pretty close to the average monthly gain since last spring the housing market has been under a lot of pressure the last month or two from rising mortgage rates though supply remains thin any kind of slower climb in housing prices would likely be welcomed by the market going into the election and cpi november started with a bang the spx is up nearly 6 so far this month that doesn’t hold a candle to the dow jones industrial average® dji however which has risen more than 13 ideas that gridlock might grip washington along with continued softness in the us dollar helped boost stocks tuesday   the dow jones industrial average® dji climbed 33383 points or 102 to 3316083   the nasdaq® comp rose 5168 or 049 to 1061620   the spx rose 2131 or 056 to 382811   the 2year treasury yield fell nearly 7 basis points to 466   the 10year treasury yield tnx fell more than 8 points to just below 413 paying attention do more attentive consumers provide a potentially clearer view of inflation expectations yes say researchers at the federal reserve bank of cleveland who found that consumers more “alert” to inflation provide more “informative” “less sticky” and “wellconsidered views of what will happen to inflation” than others starting in march 2020 the cleveland fed began running a daily survey on how consumers were responding to covid19 and how it was likely to affect the economy including their inflation expectations using that data set researchers found that “the inflation forecasts of even the attentive respondents have steadily and consistently risen over the last two years but inattentive respondents on average forecast much higher inflation” the cleveland fed research points out that back in august federal reserve chair jerome powell reminded the audience in jackson hole that “rational inattention” provides a “useful insight” into how actual inflation may affect expectations about inflation’s future path powell said at the time “when inflation is persistently high households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions when inflation is low and stable they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere” aapl not far off lows apple’s aapl logistical problems grew worse this week as it confirmed iphone production slowdowns in china covid19related shutdowns continue to plague aapl and other big us companies whether they manufacture in china sell products there or both which aapl does the technology giant’s shares fell below 140 yesterday and should remain on investors’ radar for possible clues into broader market performance many see aapl as a beacon of sorts providing insight into how the rest of the market might perform in late october and early this month shares of many “megacap” shares including alphabet googl amazon amzn and microsoft msft hit 52week lows aapl managed to avoid that perhaps providing a bit of a positive vibe that played into the market’s ability to bounce off recent lows if aapl finally sputters due to its latest logistical issues it will be interesting to see where other megacaps as well as the broader market goes because all these companies have such a heavy weight on the spx the level to watch for aapl is 12904 the intraday 52week low it reached on june 16 aapl traded just above 140 by midday tuesday down 23 from its 52week peak megacap shuffle though the tech “megacaps” mentioned above still swing plenty of weight in the spx the market’s movements this year have made things a little more democratic as of yesterday tech stocks still made up the “top five” shares by market cap in the spx with aapl msft amzn googl and tsla composing a little more than 18 of the spx marketcap combined to some that percentage may sound out of proportion until you consider that in mid2021 the top five then included meta meta which made up 23 of spx’s value here’s what that means big moves in megacaps can have an outsized impact on spx performance because it’s a marketcapweighted index but now megacaps outside of tech may begin to have more impact on spx performance among the top 20 by market cap are berkshire hathaway class b brkb united health group unh exxonmobil xom chevron cvx procter  gamble pg and johnson  johnson jnj this means investors might want to watch the performance of “old economy” industries like insurance health care and energy for their effect on the overall market it’s not just tech’s game any longer something today’s chart above reflects as well nov 10 october consumer price index cpi and expected earnings from ralph lauren rl astrazeneca azn and dillard’s dds nov 15 october producer price index ppi november empire state manufacturing and expected earnings from home depot hd and walmart wmt nov 16 october retail sales and industrial production and expected earnings from lowe’s low and target tgt nov 17 october housing starts and building permits november philadelphia fed index and expected earnings from ali baba baba kohl’s kss and macy’s m nov 18 october existing home sales and expected earnings from foot locker fl and jdcom jd this post contains sponsored advertising content this content is for informational purposes only and not intended to be investing advice