  vix takes off overnight rising well above 23 as stocks dive in afterhours trading   keeping an eye on 50day moving average for spx near 4345 as possible support level in boxing they say it’s the punch you don’t see coming that hurts the most it’s the opposite today on wall street where stocks are falling sharply despite a blow from the fed that almost everyone probably knew was in the works it probably didn’t surprise many investors that yesterday’s fed minutes showed officials discussing possible tapering of stimulus by later this year the fed’s been telegraphing that for a while still stocks took a dive yesterday and continued to retreat this morning in premarket trading wall street is in its worst rut since midjuly after recently recording a series of alltime highs it’s not just the idea of the fed pulling away the punch bowl either worries about the global economy as the delta variant spreads play a part too you can track that in the crude market where prices fell to threemonth lows this morning amid demand fears copper—another key industrial commodity—fell too treasury yields came under pressure as the 10year yield fell five basis points to 122 and volatility just exploded overnight the cboe volatility index vix which late last week fell to near postpandemic lows of around 15 recently climbed above 23 with this kind of explosive volatility trading could be treacherous today if you’re not experienced the usual ideas come into play like keeping trade sizes smaller than normal focusing on quality companies or just stepping back and not trading while you see where things go let’s keep things in perspective too the market was making new highs over and over and it appears to have run out of catalysts earnings season is just about over so that particular kind of positive catalyst is mostly in the rearview mirror even the new highs didn’t reflect huge gains which stands to reason considering how far the major indices have already come this year speaking of which the major indices are still just a touch below those alltime highs despite this week’s selling it feels like the market was looking for an excuse to step back and the fed minutes provided one there’s nothing really new going on today that we didn’t know a day ago regarding the delta variant and the fed’s likely plans those are kind of tied together by the way if things get a lot worse due to covid maybe the fed could decide to delay tapering assuming pressure continues the level you might want to watch is 4345 which marks the 50day moving average for the sp 500 index spx as we noted earlier this week that’s been a key technical support point for the index all year and the spx bounced off of it on its july descent and roared back to new highs by early august another look at the minutes the fed minutes showed “an emerging consensus” at the fed toward scaling back its 120 billion in monthly purchases of treasury and mortgage securities the wall street journal noted that’s assuming economic growth doesn’t get clipped by the delta variant keep in mind that the fed’s last meeting concluded three weeks ago on july 28 when the variant was definitely an issue but not as big as it is now we’re likely to get a more uptotheminute view next week when fed chairman jerome powell delivers a speech at the fed’s policy symposium in jackson hole that may be why the bond market barely moved after the minutes came out holding near 127 for the 10year yield that was about where it finished on tuesday and down 10 basis points from recent highs many analysts think yields will eventually start moving higher if the fed announces timing for a taper something the minutes didn’t shed direct light on judging from what officials said at the fed meeting some want to start tapering in late 2021 but others want to wait until early next year depending on how the job picture progresses the fed’s meeting ended before the central bank and the rest of us received the july jobs report which showed more than 900000 new positions created and unemployment dipping to a postpandemic low of 54 that’s the second strong jobs report in a row but it’s unclear if two good reports represent the “substantial further progress” that the fed has said it wants to see before any tapering as some analysts note there’s been a “deterioration in data” over the last two weeks since the jobs report consumer and business confidence have fallen and retail sales dropped the fed didn’t know any of this when it had its meeting but some of the data might play into the taper timing crude was down even before the fed minutes’ release but suffered steeper losses later in the day as the us frontmonth contract fell below recent lows near 65 a barrel the daily low of 6473 was the weakest price for frontmonth us crude since late may and energy shares suffered the worst performance of any sp sector on wednesday crude fell even more early thursday to near 63 again this shouldn’t come as a surprise if the fed does start to taper that would likely provide some support for the us dollar a rising dollar is often associated with falling commodity prices the us dollar index closed above 93 for the second straight day and is approaching its 2021 highs prolonged strength in the dollar if it occurs could spell trouble for multinational us companies that do a lot of overseas business because a strong dollar tends to make their products more expensive in foreign markets having said that the dollar index spent most of both 2017 and 2019 at higher levels than it is now and both years saw plenty of us stock market strength crude is also getting hit hard by signs of possible slowing in china’s economy this week analysts said we’re approaching the end of the us “driving season” too when crude typically starts to show seasonal weakness a day after walmart wmt and home depot hd shares failed to rally following what appeared to be pretty good earnings lowe’s low got some love from investors and rose nearly 10 wednesday the company appears to be benefitting from home remodeling projects being worked on by professionals instead of the mom and pop market so to speak macy’s m also had a very nice earnings report it looks like shoppers are anxious to be out among other people consumer discretionary had the best day of any sector and was the only one in the green yesterday helped by that low strength retailer earnings have really come on strong a positive sign that us consumer demand appears to remain firm despite the delta variant over in tech cisco csco is a company worth watching because of its worldwide breadth that gives it a wide view of business trends shares fell overnight despite a solid earnings report and a bunch of analyst upgrades what the company said was positive they continue to see momentum in the business also keep an eye on the vaccine stocks pfizer pfe and moderna mrna the wall street journal reported today that these two companies could pull in billions more revenue thanks to the government’s booster shot plan in data today initial jobless claims fell to 348000 the lowest since the pandemic started and another possible sign that the delta variation isn’t taking a toll yet on employment amid retreat some positive tech earnings news this isn’t necessarily the best time to report earnings if you’re a company trying to get some traction in the stock market nvidia nvda arguably doesn’t need much help after the year it’s had the chipmaker reported strong earnings after yesterday’s close its graphics unit that crushed expectations the previous quarter repeated that performance growing 40 over the last quarter and 156 year over year to the tune of 519 million the big picture is that nvda beat analyst consensus across the board in both revenue and earnings the stock is up nearly 50 so far this year helped in part by strong graphicsprocessingunit gpu demand gaming and data center businesses have both shined in 2021 nvda’s share price fell 2 leading up to yesterday’s earnings report and perhaps this reflected more on overall market sentiment rather than the nvda’s earnings expectations the stock rose in overnight trading but on any pullback keep an eye on the critical support level of 180 any price action above it may indicate that nvda’s uptrend is still intact sorry we’re out ever since covid hit americans have been dealing with supply shortages those annoying scarcities don’t seem to be going away either hospitals face shortages of medical equipment coffee shops can’t get certain kinds of coffee parents are having trouble locating backtoschool supplies like backpacks and shoes according to media reports and almost everyone must have heard by now about the semiconductor chip shortage that’s making cars more expensive so maybe it’s good that business inventories rose 08 in june data released earlier this week showed inventory increases can be a good sign of businesses expecting demand to grow in coming months and hopefully restocking supplies so people can get what they want early worries ahead of black friday holiday shopping season anyone hoping for a quick solution to the supply chain crisis may be whistling dixie as the old saying goes much of the problem starts in china where new covid cases have authorities doubling down to block the spread this could exacerbate what already were major delays at ports where cargo ships were lined up in some cases the supply crunch could affect the coming us holiday season and even extend well into 2022 cnbc reported this week it could also raise the cost of goods doubling down on inflationary trends already hitting the us economy in a report cnbc quoted a couple of us consumer product company executives saying shipping costs have risen and they’re experiencing delays this could mean fewer discounts on “black friday” a key day in the us shopping season often used as a barometer for consumer demand average prices for consumer goods could rise 3 to 15 during the holiday season if these trends continue the report said we’ll have to watch how this plays out and the possible impact on the consumer discretionary sector