markets expect the us federal reserve to raise rates again on march 22 the increase is expected to be 025 percentage points with a slim chance of a 05 percentage point hike however the question for markets is what will happen in the two meetings after march the markets see a good chance that the fed will also raise on 3 may and possibly on 14 june too a key piece of information from the march meeting will be the fed’s summary of economic projections here the members of the fed’s decisionmaking committee publish their estimates for where rates will be at the end of 2023 this data is only published at every other meeting and the most recent estimates from the fed are from december 14 2022 those are now a little dated given the economic data that has been reported in recent months including some encouraging updates on inflation and the jobs market in the december estimates the fed expected rates to end 2023 in a 475 to 575 range with most policy makers seeing rates between 5 and 55 data the fed will share in march will update that major changes are not expected in fact the markets are reasonably aligned with the fed’s december projections currently however updated forecasts may help finesse the fed’s view on what to expect from the may and june meetings currently the market views the may meeting as probable to result in a rate increase with the june meeting more of a tossup after june rates may hold steady for the remainder of 2023 with some small chance of a cut toward the end of the year on current expectations however other data will be informative too on february 22 the fed will release the minutes from their february meeting held three weeks prior though this information is somewhat backwardlooking it can help illuminate aspects of the fed’s thinking on the economy also of course the fed responds to economic data and currently data related to inflation trends and wage growth are crucial to the fed’s thinking as taming inflation is the main goal for now inflation appears to be declining from peak levels but the fed remains concerned that inflation is still well above their 2 goal currently risks of a imminent us recession appear to have eased on some measures this as enabled the fed to put more of their focus on inflation expect the fed to raise rates again on march 22 however that outcome is largely expected by markets the real question is whether the fed will continue to raise rates for the two subsequent meetings in may and june the march meeting and specifically the economic projections that the fed will release with their interest rate decision should provide some clues for that