your thoughts though first on hong kong we did see that big spike coming through in cathay pacific these reopening stocks are certainly going to get a bid are we seeing a floor yet in some of the hefty selling that youve seen in hong kong when you look to potentially more progressive policies here on the covid front to agree to see it globally we may not have seen the end of a selloff or was it delta i think it is going to stay but hong kong seems to have done to live its all positive news now coming out so there was a lot of selling pressure that was going on over the last couple of weeks but then last week we may have just seen a bottom where do you see positive news coming on the covid frowned on travel front now and of course the goldman support coming from china so so and also you know the chinese central bankers in the easing mode so it definitely looks like that hong kong may have done to leave just that what about though the broader picture the regulatory crackdown you know we sort of thought we might have been getting a bit of easing from that when we saw those supportive words coming through from state media last week and of course we heard from her as well but the regulatory crackdown there is still concern so thats going to hit the tech players in particular they dont think the regulatory crackdown is over its too early to call an end to that of course well know more you know once the committee meetings of the parties happens in autumn so thats variable that is very difficult to predict i dont think weve seen the end of that but the market hasnt digested a lot of flaws thanks to that and maybe just okay digesting a bit of what it didnt do on the account of that but still given the valuations of we in hong kong and china and whats happening in the us and other markets it may have just seen a bottom is what i would think sheesh last week it was one question is asking one observation i asked about people when we saw the hong kong market just had absolute apple is absolutely plunging i asked whether this is what capitulation looked like of course he only knows capitulation in the rearview mirror was it yeah that seemed like capitulation on margin calls or just outright selling where a number of companies youll see that the enterprise value was showing negative and thats where youll see the bounce back that comes and also a lot of value investors from the funds that come in started to go in so that capitulation seemed like a couple tradition in hindsight and thats where at least in the short to medium term its in the next six to nine months we may have just seen the bottom happening over there theyre not on the global markets or mainly on the hong kong markets but yes that was a very scary move but you see the bounce back was equally sharp exactly and thats one of the reasons why bring it up i wanted to get us to the our question of the day from my m life team shes xi jinping and that is how volatile will markets be in the next quarter this one is a toughie walton it is the only constant in markets and most people actually love it but if it becomes too much to digest then it starts causing a lot of fear to come in so you know in an interest rate hike cycle and the fed is in the tightening phase you are bound to have well ability money throwing the russia ukraine segment and you throw in some other career related lets say god not forsaken any any events there is a lot at the back of peoples mind to worry about so what it is going to stay you can never sleep at peace in this area i think that all the retakes are done oracle which has been announced has gone so weve got to just make sure that we are not rolled up rolled up our sleeves and ready to just face that embrace it so i think we will have a volatile time but i dont think we are going to see as high quality as what we saw in 2020 shes one moment were just getting some more lines coming through from the carrie lam briefing our hong kong to ease most social distancing measures from april 21st but in phases similar to what we have dealt with here in singapore were still getting these slow phases coming through but some more positive news on that front as you mentioned more broadly when we talk about volatility and we talk about risks to the markets particularly amongst this geopolitical backdrop of the war in ukraine how worrying is it if we see the fed deliver a hard landing here so thats one of the biggest risks that we have today delivering a hard landing or rather delivering a soft landing is a big challenge i think theres almost a 1 in 5 chance that the fed can deliver a soft landing and especially when you are in the backdrop of what this war is all about mistakes its somewhat inadequate and mistakes its about ego as its about things going wrong and the only risk or that is something can go wrong if all the all the puzzle pieces have to fall in place for things to go right and it just takes one mistake or things to just blow up and with that backdrop its very difficult for the fed to also maneuver a soft landing so i think the biggest risk today is that if the fed is which is always trying to play catch up right because now in hindsight they would have thought that we should have hiked maybe in august september last year which did not happen so now they have to play catch up in that catch up human lined up tightening too much and just one wrong mistake by anyone in the russia ukraine conflict or anywhere which is derail the whole thing and cause a hard landing and then you have people talking about recession and saying theres nothing like slow growth its either recession or growth so amidst all of that that youve said how do you kind of hedge against this i know youre going long us tech yeah so basically now if you look at whats happening so our view is that the fed may be better off going slower than what the market is predicting so the market is predicting that six more hikes but i think the event risks which are there may not cause that to happen which means that there could be a rotation again coming back to the tech names you know coming into it and of course the commodity names being the number one pick energy commodities there as a lack of structural cyclical upswing but also the tech names are likely to catch up because now i think the the likelihood is that the fed may not be able to do a six or seven hikes this year which is what the dots are predicting