the probability that the us economy will enter a recession within the next year has increased to 682 in april thats the greatest level since late 1982 according to the federal reserve bank of new york the model employs the us treasury yield curve and specifically the spread between threemonth and 10year yields as a metric for estimating the likelihood of a future recession us recession probabilities and wild yield curve what you need to know   recession probabilities as measured by the federal reserve bank of new york have skyrocketed from nearly 5 in january 2023 to 682 in april the highest level since the end of 1982   the move has been sparked by a significant inversion of the us treasury yield curve with the 10year yield falling to over 17 versus the threemonth yield the most negative since the 1980s   the 10year versus threemonth yield inversion has been a reliable recession predictor anticipating each of the past eight us economic recessions   concerns around the current state of the economy the banking turmoil and the growing stress associated to the debt ceiling stalemate have further inverted the us treasury yield curve over the past weeks causing recession probabilities to grow substantially   a onemonth tbill which is the most sensitive to the debtceiling frenzy because it is the closest to mature after the june 1st deadline currently yields 568 annualized compared to a 346 yield in the 10year benchmark for a difference of over 220 basis points or 22 percentage points the widest since data began in 2002   chart new york feds probability of a us recession within a year next debtlimit standoff 3 favorite hedges for bond investors seeking shelter from crisis