a modest modest change in the dollar is what you would expect on a day when the bank delivered exactly what it was expected to deliver and didnt make any if it didnt make major if any changes to his forward looking language whats your whats your take first of all what the bank of canada did and said today well youre absolutely right the market went into today anticipating that the bank would use 75 basis points exactly as they have and also largely assumes that the bank would leave open the possibility and prospect of additional tightening and is very much the case that we are very much closer to the end of the beginning of this rate tightening cycle but were not there yet and that of course was the way that the market was priced already going into the event so in a sense it hasnt it was always expected to be a relatively lackluster reaction and thats what weve seen we have seen that just the us dollar just losing a little bit of ground in the course of the afternoon session here in europe this afternoon that comes on the back of what is has been a record substantive round of dollar gains so i think it is very much a case of consolidation yes but when you look at the macro narrative if we are going to see that just deceleration slightly and as far as canada is concerned that we may well find that this modest sort of relief move in the canadian dollar will prove to be relatively temporary to understand the canadian dollar and its path you always have to understand the us dollar and its path and the canadian dollar were looking at it on a one year basis there here is a three year basis look at the canadian dollar its basically trading give or take a few fractions of a cent at its lowest level since late 2020 and that is largely on the back isnt a jeremy of a surging us dollar well youre absolutely right and its important because of course whenever were talking about the context the canadian dollar here but when you look at the broader perspective we look at a number of other major currencies if youre looking at sterling youre looking at euro york yen all three of those are multiyear extremes and turns a weakness against the us dollar so it is very much a strong dollar story and of course if we differentiate the canadian dollar away from just focusing purely against the us then were talking about a much more robust degree of performance relative to the euro relative to sterling for example so i think we have to remember that it is predominately a dollar story it is very much a case that markets are reflecting reacting on the flight to safety nature and variances in terms of the dollar but also were getting used to this higher for longer mantra from the fed and so a combination of these two factors are keeping the us dollar in the ascendancy and as i say the canadian dollar is holding up relatively well certainly compared to its g3 counterparts how influential has been the hawkish tone of recent comments from jerome powell at the us fed particularly his statement about pain pain coming to the us economy and two to two americans as the fed continues to boost interest rates well were very much on ise sitting on the fence and trying to determine whether we think the next move from the fed will be 50 or 75 although it does increasingly feel more likely to be a 75 basis point hike because of the resilience of the labor market and i think there is going to be this question as to whether the us is going to have a hard or soft landing certainly the most recent data suggest its going to be slightly softer and certainly as more scope for the us economy to moderate without slipping into recession compared to many other markets so i think it is still very much the case that the hawkish bias from jerome powell as a spouse but a jackson hole one suspects he will reiterate that in his appearance tomorrow the cato institute will continue to validate that strong us dollar bias which is generally prevailing across all major marketplaces as we speak do you have a target on the canadian dollar as to where its going in the next six or twelve months well i think in the very short term it may well be the case that we do see a little bit of additional and further weakness but i think it is very much the case that the canadian dollar will hold up relatively well over the course of that six to 12 month time horizon so i think that we do see move up into the sort of low sort of 132 133 area against the us dollar thats the sort of magnitude that we would expect it to generally sort of top out were not expecting a six significant or substantial depreciation the canadian dollar even though as i say were close to the end of the bank of canadas rate hiking cycle