weve got a guest coming up from back in new york mellon and their notes tell me that the average daily change in the two year note yield since march the 7th has been in absolute terms 25 basis points per day so no wonder you feel that thats pretty normal right now or average because thats what the data does tell us where do you think we head from here weve gone from 5 percent back on the 9th of march to around three point eight percent now in sense of the two year yield was the direction of travel is it possible to discern the direction of travel from here i think two year yields will go higher from here but the way that works is going to be interesting every week we dont have a crisis to girls to need to go higher for a start the benchmark fed funds rate is way higher than their second of all the fed did raise their inflation forecasts its just that theyre betting that the credit crunch is going to do some of the tightening for them and that makes sense that they dont need to hike rates as much as were thinking only a few weeks ago because those tighter lending standards however there is no indication yet from the fed that they will be cutting rates anytime soon and what will change that well a very very deep crisis much more substantial than the term most in the last couple of weeks so for every week we dont see signs of this immense crisis well then yields will have a natural pressure higher now but thats not going to be a straight line thing remember as only this week the credit suisse went down so i think overall by the time we get to say june i think well see tier yields right back up towards the highs the year again or maybe even higher i think theres a lot of variability and make a firm commitment to the day i higher but that wouldnt surprise me i think weve got a lot of upside from here and the fed clearly on a very different path in terms of rate assumptions versus the market because the market is now pricing in plenty of costs such as the turmoil in the debt and the damage that the market expects to be seen to be seeing on the us economy but the fed and we had this from shery ahn pound a few times this week theyre not expecting nobody is expecting to cut rates at the fed what do you expect to see in terms of that rate narrative and the extent to which cuts are now priced in so what we have at the moment is from june onwards and the subsequent 12 months we have more than six rate cuts priced in the number thats an average pricing what that is is that theres a large chunk of the market that believe the fed that rates are going to stay up there and not be cut and then theres another large chunk of the market to basically think rates are going to be rapidly slashed to zero so that means that theres theres a theres a decent segment of the market that are betting on an immense crisis to arrive now i am slightly more optimistic in the us economy i do think were heading to a recession starting in roughly about three months time in the us and then were going to be in a recession the second half of the year but i dont think its going to be this deep deep crisis that is going to cause the fed to slash rates aggressively and thats why i think the narrative is going to be slowly like hey whereas this crisis whereas this crisis in every week we dont get that crisis yields will have to drift a little bit higher because the moment remember just where the benchmark is is just significantly higher and we might still have one more one more rate hike or even more ahead of us from the fed this year ok lets also talk about when it comes to affect markets janet yellen comments crypto so lots of things on the move well do that as we go through the hour remember you can get up to date analysis and insight from mark and the rest of the markets life team analyze analyzing gave us the funk since years on your plane back tannehill