recessions will roll from one region to another eventually reaching the us by the end of next year according to the latest forecasts released by citi the wall street bank says there’s a 50 chance of a global recession as it kept its 2022 global gdp forecast at 29 but trimmed its 2023 output forecast by 03 points to 22 “our sense is that economic performance is likely to be plagued by high inflation slowing real gdp growth and rapidly tightening monetary policy for some time to come relative to the apparently more sunny view in financial markets we remain concerned about the possibility of further storms ahead” said a team led by nathan sheets the global chief economist the sp 500 spx has climbed 17 from its midjune lows citi says the eurozone and uk will enter a recession later this year and the us will confront one by the end of 2023 key emerging markets including brazil chile and poland also will enter recession related uk inflation reaches double digits as cpi jumps by most since the 1980s “stated bluntly the global economy is still wrestling with the legacy of the supply shocks that have erupted over the past year given these challenges we fear that the current market rebound may prove to be a disappointing false dawn” the economists said markets have rallied on the view that inflation in the us has peaked requiring fewer federal reserve interest rate hikes to douse inflation but the team at citi say they don’t know how long it will take for goods inflation to retreat from still lofty levels or how stubborn services inflation may prove to be the reason the citi team do not expect a global recession is because of the resilience so far of the us economy “but we also recognize that recessionary headwinds are increasing mounting challenges from the slowing global economy and fed rate hikes coupled with the observed slowing in the housing sector and consumer discretionary expenditures could bite into labor market momentum and services spending more rapidly and intensely than we expect weak recent readings on consumer sentiment also highlight this risk” they say a us recession in the first quarter of 2023 could be the critical mass to bring a broader global slowdown