housing market were gonna get a whole host of different housing indicators the fed characterize this as a market that was slowing down do you agree no i dont this is one place where i see a lot of divergence and i think thats been part of the market narrative that the housing market would slow down in the second half of the year and that would necessarily bring the cpi numbers down because of shelter costs being such a big part of the cpi but if you look at housing from a long term perspective and i have been doing so for a very long time youll see that the supply shortages were seeing in housing are structural they are long lasting they didnt start with the pandemic theyve gotten worse during the pandemic the labor shortages are intense we see it in our own data at adp there is a lot going on with housing that is not cyclical even though we look at it as a cyclical indicator it has structural holes right now and i think that whats underappreciated is the fact that 1 the us is chronically subprime undersupplied especially with affordable housing and two theres been a lot of new households formed over the last two years in fact were at a run rate of a million more households being formed than worth was the case before the pandemic i remember coming on and talking to you about millennials living in their parents basements well theyve gotten out of the basement they are ready they are 40 years old they better get out of it and so youre seeing an increase in household formation that is going to put pressure on demand millennials are reaching peak home buying years and rental prices i think are going to kind of hold trend not decelerate in a meaningful way for inflation