inflation statistics keep pointing to a gradual decrease in price pressures across the economy this is what emerges from the june report of the personal consumption expenditure pce price index released on friday by the bureau of economic analysis in june the fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to 41 yearonyear slightly below economist projections of 42 reinforcing investor optimism that the most intense period of elevated price pressures has now passed concurrently the bea reported that monthly consumer spending increased 05 in june up from 01 the previous month and exceeding estimates of a 04 gain   the us pce price index came in at 3 yearonyear in june falling from the 38 annual rate in may and matching the the expected 3 this marks the lowest level for pce inflation since march 2021   on a monthly basis pce inflation surged 02 accelerating from the 01 rise in may but in line with the expected 02 increase   food prices increased 46 yearonyear and energy prices fell 189  prices for goods fell 06 and prices for services rose 49 annually   the fed’s preferred measure of inflation the core pce price index pce less food and energy dropped from 46 to 41 yearly in june slightly below estimates of 42 this marks the lowest level for core pce inflation since october 2021   core pce inflation advanced at 02 monthly pace decelerating from the 03 rise in may and in line with the expectations traders are assigning a 20 probability of a 25basispoint rate hike in september and a 29 probability of a hike by the november meeting unchanged following the data futures on the sp 500 are up 06 an hour before the opening bell suggesting a positive start on friday the spdr sp 500 etf trust spy achieved new yearly highs on thursday but subsequently fell 07 as volatility flared due to a surprising policy tweak by the bank of japan read more us stock futures signal rebound on tech earnings support analyst tells why fed may not start cutting rates anytime soon