just as the average rate for a 30year mortgage loan hit 652 a trade group on wednesday said the slump in home sales next year could be the worst in a decade the national association of realtors released data showing expectations for fewer home sales—519 million existinghomes in 2022—down 152 from last year’s 612 million sales existing–home sales in 2023 are expected to slump further totaling 482 million for the year the lowest annual count since 2012 the outlook represents a downward revision from the trade group’s august forecast which called for 531 million existinghome sales in 2022 and 529 million next year fullyear sale price expectations were also cut the trade group foresees the median existinghome selling for 384400 in 2022 and 389200 in 2023 representing a 12 increase from this year to next according to the forecast the median sale price of an existing home is expected to decrease 19 yearoveryear in the second quarter of 2023 should the forecast come to pass it would be the first quarter since the end of 2011 “as the housing market was coming out of the deep recession” that the median sales price would dip on a yearoveryear basis according to lawrence yun the trade group’s chief economist “the simple reason for the forecast is that home prices rapidly accelerated and the much higher mortgage rates of 65 to 7 will drag down home sales” yun said “unlike a sales decline this price decline forecast is a minor adjustment that will cause little harm to homeowners or the financial industry” home price gains have been losing steam as mortgage rates have risen slowing the broader housing market price gains in july decelerated at the fastest pace on record according to the sp corelogic caseshiller indices mortgage rates creeping up to 7 are one reason for the downward revision in sales “the direction of mortgage rates—upward or downward—is the prime mover for home buying and decadehigh rates have deeply cut into contract signings” yun the trade group’s chief economist said in a statement the trade group’s index tracking pending home sales dropped 2 in august from the month prior and was about 24 lower than the same month last year mortgage rates have gained swiftly this year as the federal reserve has tightened monetary policy to combat inflation the average contract rate on a 30year fixed rate mortgage with a conforming loan balance last week was 652 the mortgage bankers association said wednesday—the highest level since mid2008 “after a brief pause in july mortgage rates have increased more than a percentage point over the past six weeks” joel kan the mortgage bankers association’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting said in a statement that’s weighed on both refinancing and home purchase activity kan added the realtors’ most recent forecast foresees mortgage rates averaging 54 in 2022 and 63 in 2023 “if mortgage rates moderate and the economy continues adding jobs then home buying should also stabilize” nar’s yun said in a statement “only when inflation calms down will we see mortgage rates begin to steady”