let me throw up just to further what i said earlier about these expectations from tsmc today this is a chart really showing what weve been seeing the operating environment and analysts have been very bullish on this stock as well theyre expected to pose record profit the company actually raising its first quarter sales forecast last quarter of course on the back of this very robust chip and process the demand story that continues even as the world comes out of the pandemic so why under those circumstances are you reducing the price target ok and starting i want to say i do think they will come out still positive on their business theyre still significantly outgrowing the industry mainly from some market share gains in graphics and mobile and have had good pricing and good good exposure i would say to the data center and compute and so that area is still strong local currency has depreciated and because they price in dollars that will give them an incremental boost both to sales and margin factor for the target price and we did do that across our group really effective reflecting a few things one we do believe the rates will continue to rise as central banks try to control inflation so that higher discount rate does affect valuation of it second factor though to semiconductor there is relative to a few months ago a few areas of more concern and more uncertainty that uncertainty also requires a little bit lower valuation talk to me about the expectation of how all of that is going to impact consumer demand because on a very micro level we know that in the past for example in an economic slowdown sort of condition we havent necessarily seen an impact on demand for apple iphones for example right yeah in our take there are a few pockets to be a little bit more nervous about and we can see the conflict in europe one factor covid lockdowns in china a second factor and wed say all of these bottlenecks in supply chain have led to inventory build up across the chain to make sure components are in place and handle these longer cycle times so those end up becoming a bit of a headwind as we look out also the factory said coming out of pandemic some parts of tech that did quite well now decelerating toward flat to small decline areas like the pc computer and if we look at china the android smartphone has also seen a bit of softness so those are good at the headwinds right actually when we look at the demand picture theres still pluses and that ties to enterprise commercial data center but when we look at the consumer side dealing with inflationary pressures in the east china europe issues it is a bit softer outlook than a few months ago and so given right now the macro environment what sort of inventory strategy are you hoping to see from not only tsmc but other semiconductor makers that will make him more positive about those stocks okay yeah and id say were still positive on our overall technically even as heading into slowdown there our product cycle and content first families that help on an overall so that is a plus what id say is a soft landing is actually the best scenario we could get were technically with the rate hikes we avoid a recession slow the economy down or slow some of the overheating and bring down some of the inflationary pressure i think the other couple issues a little bit out of the chip industrys control would we if we get to at least a more stable situation in europe and china with the covid containment wed get past that we the biggest city lockdowns and start to get more stabilized and demand in those areas so i think its a combination europe i think can improve the demand outlook and i think the supply chain bottlenecks as we start to see inflation concerns come down that also puts a little bit less pressure on rates to rise so what are your top stock picks in the semi space across asia especially when we have already seen the huge correction yeah i mean thats say stocks are down 40 percent so from a longer term investing we would still say i cant mention specific names id say boundaries where there is that leading tech position bear away first sector where they have greater control of the supply and we also like some of the fabulous companies that are tied more to some of the data center networking demand one other piece we do like memory sector actually hasnt had on some set sometimes there is a high beta you get a lot of buildup of inventory a lot of buildup of capex memory has been pretty stable last couple quarters already so inventory adjustments so should make for at least a more mild we go into a slowdown id say theres less of the excess stored up for that sector that weve seen in the past from a bigger picture perspective randy when do you expect to see kind of the center of gravity when it comes to the industry demand and output to shift potentially from asia to other parts of the world as of course we see the us really beefing up investment of course china a completely different story pouring so much domestic investment as well yeah i look at the next few years as a more balanced picture its been very concentrated taiwan and china react now to seek a balance what intel is doing and if you add to tsmc stem cell building capacity in the us youve also seen countries like tei restart and get more aggressive western expansion so i would look at it as more balance the asian adoption continues rtx and she will still be building out several fabs in taiwan and also into japan so that would be more of the approach in terms of a shift a percentage it may not shift a lot but i would say for us europe in terms of stemming the decline really looks like were in the stabilization relative to the past you could say two to three decades