its tough right because as you say they could ever tighten the policy mistake risk is high but theres also the risk that inflation could be persistent and theyll actually need to have a longer tightening cycle look absolutely and we have seen what the inflation numbers have been in the last six month as well as the broadening out of the inflation stats across all the categories and that is a problem really for those central banks so they need to do it fast and not need to do it soon so we do expect that take place around the world whether australia or globally to take this how are you navigating the risk skew to the upside at the moment yeah look i think for the equity market the current environment is of course theres a high volatility in the like but really just returning to a normal type of volatility and at the same time the underlying corporate earnings still not too bad particularly for some economies such as australia and were still looking at you know taking out the resources still looking at sort of mid single digit sort of corporate earnings growth which is not too bad and and i think the equity market at this point is yet to really pricing in significant recession risk yet so you know were really still into the cyclical earnings and of companies that will benefit from the rising inflation and rising rates ok im going to jump in now heidi you know jim it seems to me that this is so much priced in in fact sometimes i feel like some of these big investment banks are having a race to to predict the most aggressive fed tightening you know deutsche bank thinking that the rates could go up to 5 percent to 6 percent im sure they dont mean in the next couple of years but over time you know how how high whats aggressive now compared to people saying we could get to 75 basis point rate hikes in a row which i have not heard any professional fed watcher thats been doing this for a long time predict look it always seems to be a race you know i always thought the tiny circle a race towards a wall for everyones expectation race to who gets the highest expectations look i think its if you look at the short term or near term is the inflation risk is is quite real you know as we talk to inflation is rampant across many categories and we need to keep that down and central banks need to move fast so it is very real that they will get the interest rate that the fed rate to a more neutralized normalized level which is close to 2 percent but beyond that it really depends on how you know what does that do to the inflation and whether that slows down the activity and so you know theres theres a lot of uncertainty as we head towards it but meanwhile were certainly going to see quite aggressive moves aggressive do you think the rba will get the reserve bank of australia because thats another place we know heidi just mentioned oh a 40 basis point hike that seems like a bit of an outlier but how how far how fast is this going to go think inflation is moving faster than they thought wages but its still a lot lower than anything you see in the united states for example absolutely look so with ibs so of us address the inflation australia inflation is below the others partly because you know our labor force is slightly structurally different from the likes of the us labor force where two thirds are labor force is under awards that would take longer to come through in terms of inflation and secondly our economy is really still going through that reopening at this point given the tougher lockdown rules previously so it will take longer however i have seen what the other central bankers are dealing with and they do have that roadmap to follow whether they will raise the rates this month its a bit of a coin toss because it is very close to the two to the election but we do feel in the coming months they will be reasonably aggressive to get ahead of china the impact of the lockdown is becoming increasingly clear if you take a look at the paper my numbers so how does that protect potentially impact you know risk aversion and the sentiment story look i it does present a quite a significant tail risk at this point actually potentially quite a real risk at the moment when we talk to the equity markets you know equity markets still feel reasonably confident that the global growth is still reasonably intact were not yet going to see a recession the next twelve month or so but if china is going to slow down significantly and without significant policy support then that theory will be will be tested so but we do believe however this is a smaller chance we do think the policy support is coming through and we have seen over the last few weeks some of the commentary and two is that we do think that hopefully inspire some point further down that that we will see that lockdown get lifted