don’t get too giddy if the sp 500 index market eclipses the 4500 mark because a us recession still looks likely according to john canavan lead us analyst at oxford economics bond yields retreated stocks rose and the dollar dxy sank to its lowest level since april 2022 on wednesday after us consumer prices cooled more than expected in june adding to hopes for the federal reserve to soon end its ratehiking cycle bullish tones about the fed’s chances of creating a soft landing for the us economy while taming high inflation through higher rates could lift the sp 500 back above 4500 in the months ahead canavan said in a wednesday client note however he thinks an economic slowdown starting later this year will prevent the sp 500 spx from returning to its 2022 record high the stock market also likely will lose ground later in 2023 and struggle for gains in the decade ahead see chart the sp 500 gained 07 on wednesday closing at 447216 its highest finish to a session since april 8 2022 according to dow jones market data it also closed about 68 below its record finish of 479656 on jan 3 2022 the dow jones industrial average djia finished about 67 below its record close on jan 4 2022 while the nasdaq composite index comp ended about 133 off its record close on nov 19 2021 according to dow jones market data a us recession could see the sp 500 fall “back to test the 50 retracement of the rally since last october which is currently just below 4000” canavan said the sp 500 set a oneyear low of 357703 on oct 12 2022 according to dow jones market data related us stocks rise as bulls get ‘wish’ on inflation report yet soft landings for fed are ‘pretty improbable’