get ready for another year of above average stockmarket volatility according to nicholas colas cofounder of datatrek research history suggests that the jump in volatility that accompanied the advent of the covid19 pandemic in early 2020 is likely to endure well into 2022 “volatility comes as a storm and it usually takes years for it to exhaust itself” colas said in a thursday note the cboe volatility index vix  a measure of expected sp 500 spx volatility over the coming 30day period has generally been above its longterm average of 195 for the last two years colas observed see chart below it is reasonable to believe that us equity volatility will on average be lower in 2022 than 2020 when the vix had a daily average of 262 he said and will likely come in much like 2021 which has seen a daily average of 197 but as the chart shows volatility can run above or below average for years he noted he observed that the first gulf war in 1991 caused a spike in volatility that lasted only 18 months while the period from the 1997 asia crisis through the dotcom bubble of 2000 911 and iraq war from 2003 saw the vix remain over 195 for the better part of seven years and the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent eurozone debt crisis of 20102014 kept us equity volatility elevated for five years that said the “bear case” for volatility which is therefore bullish for stocks rests with corporateearnings power colas said reiterating that datatrek expects wall street’s 2022 estimates to prove too low with upside earnings surprises likely to keep equity prices stable or rising the bull case for volatility which would be bearish for stocks rests with the uncertainties around economic growth and the federal reserve’s interest rate policy as it addresses inflation he said major stock indexes are on track for strong gains in 2021 despite historically elevated volatility the dow jones industrial average djia is up 176 for the year to date while the sp 500 has advanced 26 and the nasdaq composite comp is up 217 “we expect 2022 to look a lot like 2021 in terms of market churn because well the investment issues are largely the same pandemic concerns inflation etc” colas wrote “us equities can do well in that environment 2021 shows that we just need corporate earnings to come through and we remain confident they will”