after months of thinning gains home prices have finally fallen from yearago levels according to one frequent gauge of data it could be a sign of what’s to come as fullmonth indicators—which show price growth from the year prior—catch up investors last month received a slate of december and january home price data to digest the figures from the national association of realtors and sp dow jones indices show that prices continued to slip monthovermonth but remained positive from yearago levels economists typically measure prices from yearago levels to contend with housing market seasonality—and this new batch of data reflected a continued slowdown in gains as rising mortgage rates dampened the pandemic’s previous housing boom the realtors association said the median singlefamily home sold for 363100 in january an increase of 07 from the year prior while sp corelogic caseshiller home price indices’ december data which tracks changes to singlefamily home prices as an index number reflected a national price gain of 58 yearoveryear more frequent data show that the housing market may have reached a turning point in february with thin price gains turning into declines redfin ticker rdfn on thursday said its measure of the median home sale price dropped 06 from yearago levels over a fourweek period that included much of february—jan 30 through feb 26 data for the previous fourweek period from jan 23 through feb 19 was revised to a 03 decline such a drop could be a sign of a significant change in the housing market for the past decade monthly home prices have gained from yearago levels according to data logged by the realtors association and the caseshiller indices investors in march will see whether the drop detected by redfin ’s weekly report carries over into fullmonth data releases should the drop appear in the realtors data it would be the first yearoveryear decline since the same month in 2012 the last time caseshiller data showed a yearoveryear drop was two months later in april 2012 for housing market forecasters it’s less a question of whether the declines appear in broader data but when and for how long fannie mae expects its index measuring home price changes to drop below yearago levels in the second quarter of 2023 a slump that it sees lasting through the end of 2024 according to its most recent forecast the realtors association expects quarterly existinghome sale prices to drop from yearago levels in the second and third quarters of 2023 while the mortgage bankers association anticipates yearoveryear declines in the median existing home sale price in the first three quarters of 2023 according to the two trade groups’ most recent forecasts as with many changes to the housing market in recent years home prices were impacted by mortgage rates says daryl fairwealther redfin’s chief economist in february 2022 home price gains were still hot while the average 30year fixed mortgage rate though up from 2021’s sub3 lows remained below 4 according to freddie mac as higher mortgage rates cut into buyer demand home sale prices from earlier in the pandemic loom large “this time last year there was i think legitimately a bubble in prices” says daryl fairweather redfin’s chief economist to buyers bidding on homes during the days of ultralow mortgage rates getting a mortgage with a low rate was worth paying more than a home’s asking price fairweather told barron’s earlier this week then mortgage rates rose climbing above 55 in midjune for the first time since 2009 according to freddie mac by the end of the year the average 30year fixed mortgage rate was 64 after having peaked above 7 in october and november the highest such rate since 2002 home sales—and prices—pulled back in turn homes in january were sold at the slowest seasonallyadjusted annual rate since october 2010 according to the realtors group’s existinghome sales report the median sale price of existing homes including coops and condos at 359000 was about 13 below the previous year’s seasonal peak—greater than the typical peaktojanuary price decline of about 8 according to historic data “prices came down as soon as mortgage rates went up” fairweather said the economist doesn’t expect that prices will shake the slump anytime soon fairweather expects yearoveryear price changes to remain negative through most of the spring barron’s previously reported “mortgage rates are still high so that’s why we’re seeing these yearoveryear comparisons going negative” she said