the federal reserve will only need to raise its benchmark interest rate to 3 to curb inflation according to a survey of economists at large banks released by the american bankers association on friday indeed the fed’s steady rate hikes will finish late next year with the first cut coming during the last three months of 2023 according to the median forecast of the survey “we think by the time we’re at the end of next year we’re seeing the results to a sufficient degree that the fed can take its foot off the brake” said richard dekaser chief corporate economist at wells fargo “it looks like the federal reserve will successfully bring inflation down to more tolerable levels in the foreseeable future” by the end of next year consumer prices will be running at a 24 annual rate down sharply from the 40year high of 83 seen this year according to the survey the economists forecast continued albeit slow growth for the economy with quarterly gdp prints never falling below a 16 annual rate “the best way to think about this is a successful soft landing” dekaser said at the same time there were sizable downside risks according to the economists forecasters said there was a 40 chance of a recession in 2023 “as these things go that’s quite high” dekaser said overly tight fed policy stubborn inflation supplychain woes or a housing correction could tip the economy into a downturn the economists said the economists did not think there would be broadbased price declines in home prices given the shortsupply of homes on the market the aba committee is made up of 13 economists from some of north america’s largest banks dekaser said the median forecast masked some differences of views stocks djia spx were sharply lower on friday following the strong jobs report the yield on the 10year treasury note tmubmusd10y rose to just below 3