cc may contain inaccuracies what are you looking at that makes you say that we could see opportunities later down the line in 2020 3 whats going to drive that well i think a few things first of all im closer to home obviously the reopening of china despite some of the nearterm challenges with rising infections we do think that growth momentum should pick up time starting in the second quarter of the year in fact if you look at market performance in december china has outperformed the us by quite a significant margin i think thats the investor starting to get back into this trend at the same time elsewhere for example the us obviously we all waiting patiently for the fed when they was stopped raising rates and at the same time while all the concerns right now is whether it is us into recession we typically see the end of the recession in the us presents a great opportunity for equity investors so thats not all going to happen the first song is good spread over the coming fiscal quarters but i do think that were responding here with more conservative stance with fixed income emphasis but as we get through free allocation in equities can be increased with the end of hiking cycles and cross developed markets but also potentially the eventual recovery in the us economy given the strong relationship between the us dollar and asian equities where do you see the greenback going in 2023 in an interview like this its been well supported typically in the us economy this slow down going into recession you get risk aversion and thats good for the dollar but at the same time if we do get a rebound in the chinese economy and many of the asian economies thats where the us dollar starts we can forget the dollar is extremely expensive right now so from that perspective i do think that one of asian markets the dollar should be more of a tailwind going into 2023 but at the same time we be differentiate because as you rightly mentioned earlier on theres lots of concerns about export performance in asia especially in northeast asia markets like taiwan south korea japan as well by the same time as we experienced last year with covid reopening spreading throughout asia last year asean performed relatively well more like spatters on the markets but this year with china with many of the northeast asian economies force reopening domestic demand the trauma services could potentially benefit take a look at this a big price action we saw in that reversal from the bottom for hong kong stocks right it was a pretty great start to the year when it comes to hong kong and china how much of this do you think has already priced in the positivity with every opening and how much of that potentially is its not pricing in how chaotic this reopening the border reopening the impact of potentially crossborder covid waves could could actually be but look at how stock indexes found so far from the bottom around about one third of the value of one third of a couple of things to bear in mind one as you rightly pointed out the market is still trying to work through what the reopening looks like in fact many of the governments are still trying to work through what the eventual reopening will look like as a first point the second point is i think a lot of international investors are still very much in wait and see mode so from a float perspective weve seen quite a bit of active flows between hong kong and the chinese markets but weve yet to see really convinced investors coming back in from the us from europe so from that perspective i still think theres room to go but we do need to have a little bit more clarity in the next few weeks over the new year in terms of how the kobe situation was in china but also in terms of crossborder flows how is that going to change in terms of people movements within china which i see here but also with all the asian markets let me throw it to you then our question of the day it really takes a look at how big the gains when it comes to chinese equities are going to be in the first quarter given that we know that economically speaking we probably wont see a meaningful recovery in the first quarter as the chaos of covid 0 kind of still works its way out what do you see in terms of the equities gain then during that period well i think its going to take a couple of years to get back to where we were before at the end of 2021 level so were not expecting a significant huge rapid recovery but a couple of things to bear in mind one is that obviously the economic cycle is likely to accelerate starting in q2 and secondly were also likely to see a lot of positive policy support whether its short term fiscal policy or some of the longer term industrial policy in china so from that perspective its not just about they call it opening but also about how the economy starts to normalize and some of the longer term themes such as renewable energy such as electric vehicles getting back into the mix of investors preference so i think it does require a little bit of agility investing in china not so much about the picking bottom picking tops but picking the right sectors like companies theyll benefit both from the short term because of me about these are consumer sectors these are troubled sectors but also the longer term plays with including principally energy and electric vehicles and also some of the consumerism that we do expect to recover after longer term and of course theres some forget that the fed is the other you know ever looming in the background there we know that there are inflation risks coming from the china reopening but if you listen to the likes of michael barr hes talking about these domestic inflation risks in the us and rearing the ugly head again and potentially as you say does that really put a question mark over fed credibility and the ability of these markets to be able to project what theyre expecting well i do think in the us inflation is gradually coming down may not be as quick as the fed wishes you know hitting this 2 percent target any time soon if you look at some of the components or services excluding shots of cold goods those the inflation components contribution are slowly coming down shots as a matter of fact i think the fed understands that so i think from that perspective the part of you fish coming down is reasonable shape but obviously as you rightly pointed out the risk is for the official to linger a little bit longer you know we could still have disruption in any supply for example that could push up energy prices so i think the fed is still very much in the camp of lets keep policy types in order to really put away this inflation program before we think about recession risky in fact as you know the fed has been highlighting his preference for slow growth in exchange for a slowing inflation even if that means the economy comes under the long term trend so from that perspective i think the fed is trying to regain his credibility by putting things off while inflation and so that moneys just truly to be