based on the idea that the stock market’s actions speak louder than those warning about an economic slowdown the consumerled recession many have been calling for appears to have ended months ago and a chart of the consumer discretionary sector’s strength relative to the broader stock market suggests the recovery if not a new growth cycle is well under way a relativestrength chart maps how one charted instrument performs against another on that basis the consumer discretionary select sector spdr exchangetraded fund xly has been outperforming the sp sp 500 etf spy since the end of last year enough to suggest a new uptrend started this past week basically what the stocks are saying appears to dispute the warnings in recent earnings reports from a number of retailers including target corp tgt  home depot inc hd and dollar general corp dg  about weakening demand for discretionary items “the consumer continues to be the star of the show and the market is sniffing it out” said ryan detrick chief market strategist at carson group the low in the chart hit in late april was higher than the low in late december while the highs seen over the past week were above the high reached in early february many technicians on wall street believe a pattern of higher lows and higher highs is what defines an uptrend the betterthanexpected government retail sales report on thursday was a fundamental confirmation of what the charts have been saying read us consumer sentiment rises to a 4month high on easing inflation and end to debtceiling fight the consumer’s wellbeing is critical for the health of the overall economy as consumer spending accounts for about 68 of us gross domestic product a longerterm chart suggests the consumerled recession that many have been expecting for about the past year appears to have ended about six months ago “the market is acting like the recession has already happened and we’ve entered the recovery” said craig johnson chief market technician at piper sandler “the consumer sector historically does very well coming off of bear market lows” there are those that say the performance of the consumer discretionary etf or xly should be taken with a grain of salt since only two of its 53 components account for more than 40 of the etf’s weighting as of june 15 amazoncom inc’s stock amzn  which carries a 250 weighting has run up 50 year to date and tesla inc shares tsla  with an 187 weighting have soared 113 in comparison the sp 500 index spx has gained 15 this year but that’s no reason to disregard the etf’s message altogether carson’s detrick said while amazon and tesla are certainly among the key reasons for the xly’s outperformance there’s a lot more to the sector’s strength than just two stocks “there are some really positive things happening under the surface” detrick said “people are getting out there and spending” other xly components that have outperformed the sp 500 this year come from a number of different subsectors including cruise operators home builders other auto makers and sellers travel bookers and casino operators so rather than a “hard landing” for the economy a deep recession or another sharp stock market selloff or a “soft landing” a mild recession detrick said he’s in the “no landing” camp “as long as the consumer is still strong we’re not going to have a recession” detrick said nasdaq’s strength versus the dow bodes well for the economy piper sandler’s johnson said besides the strength in the xly there’s another chart that suggests the recession has already ended johnson said the nasdaq composite comp has outperformed the dow jones industrial average djia by more than 10 percentage points for a quarter at the end of five of the last five recessions and for the first quarter that outperformance was by more than 13 percentage points as the nasdaq rose 168 and the dow gained 34 “for now stocks are working and the more the market keeps working the more wealth people are going to feel they have” johnson said