we heard from jp morgans milanovic yesterday saying that a soft landing is the base case before this cpi print i should say is it time to ditch that view i think that the window for a soft landing is swiftly closing because obviously one of the underlying principles of expecting a soft landing is the notion that the fed can pivot and at the very least that we can see in the short term a step down in the pace of rate hikes and i think what we learned yesterday with cpi which undoubtedly was strong across so many categories including critically that goods category that we hope to is going to start showing signs of disinflation but i think all of that just means that 75 basis points for next week has absolutely cemented potential for upside but also that that window for when you know you could see that the pace of rate hikes that sound is pushed out the terminal rate up and so all of that to me is to tighten monetary policy free to recession risks and an upside dress to the dollar downside to risk assets a greater overall was the market reaction justified it was pretty ugly pretty violent and pretty quick but look at where weve come from in the four trading days into this print the market was telling you it really wanted to believe that you know peak peak inflation was was here and so we saw that very steep 5 percent ish rally in the s  p and the four trading days before the print again a material pullback in the dollar so i think the move is is justified because certainly when it comes to equity markets you know they were starting to look reasonably full we know that pmi is tell us the earnings need to come down and therefore you are looking for multiple support but with this higher terminal rate and longer and restrictive policy you cant win on multiples so i think i think that when we see a range bound equity market between now and the end of the year between the ranges of thirty six hundred forty two hundred would be sort of that kind of range area that that is a hundred thirty four hundred thirty six hundred two ise is sort of where a mild recession is discounted and then the 40 42 is more the sort of the soft landing scenario for the end of this year with modest progression the next year as nice