with that policy reaction then given that that is really top of mind today bloomberg economics is actually an outlier when it comes to expecting a move from the prc does the data patchy as it is and kind of bifurcating as a recovery have been suggests that there is further need for policy support there certainly is in fact weve seen a bit of a slowdown in sequential terms going into april and todays data will this weeks data will perhaps reinforce that view that march was a strong month but as we start the second quarter momentum is starting to ease a little bit and that of course is very early on in the recovery and that would suggest that the government will have to do a bit more by some in terms of supporting growth not sure whether theyll do it right away but certainly over the coming months interest rate cuts more liquidity injections and even a bit more fiscal supports probably needed just to sustain the recovery to create those jobs and we seen last week cpi numbers still very very weak that suggested underlying demand is certainly not overheating at this point and so much of it has been consumer services demand but as we move out of that reopening you know the revenge spending the the reunion dressing that kind of pulls in all of the numbers when it comes to the return of the consumer whats the real risk thats going to fade and not translate to a selfsustaining cycle here thats the big risk the chinese economy cant just run on services demand travel demand alone it obviously was very helpful in the first few months we also saw more demand for housing coming back but you really need that expansion towards the recovery towards construction you needed going to manufacturing private investment these are all sectors that steel still need to ramp up what you have seen is very strong credit growth at the beginning of the year that will still translate into stronger investment with the leg but we cannot just take this for granted we need to make sure that policy to the policy stance remains accommodative just to support that recovery and remember externally things just make a tough get tougher in terms of export growth still slowing with slowing demand in the us and europe for example you know manufacturing activity has been pretty weak what are you seeing in terms of electronics producers well electronics globally actually has had a bit of a stabilization of late you see for example new orders for industrial electronics pick up again that potentially has to do with chinas demand coming back on that front at least its a leading indicator for strong investment in china we also see a very strong demand for global energy investment energy systems and that helps the industrial electronics side but if you look at consumer electronics is just not picking up and thats still payback if you will from the pandemic induced demand and were not seeing a strong recovery there in the coming months because broadly speaking consumers globally are still pulling back maybe not in china but certainly elsewhere in the world the trend is towards weaker consumer spending given that everybody struggling with high inflation relatively low wage growth and debt just means that you just need to preserve your pocketbook and economize a little bit on splurging on those electronic gadgets how is the thai economy doing of course were following the country very closely given that resounding victory by the opposition parties there we have seen of course a little bit of a recovery because of tourism but it seems the broader economy had been stalling recently the broader economy has been struggling a little bit certainly the after effects of the pandemic are still being felt but thailand is an interesting story because you have the tourism part still playing itself out in fact the government itself forecasts that its only by the fourth quarter that you really see chinese arrivals go back to 2019 levels this of course is going to be key to drive that services part of the thai economy what we really need though in the coming weeks is clarity on where we land in terms of the government formation we want to see policy consistency and of course all parties have promised fairly generous spending and that should help if its actually being converted into actual policy that should help consumer spending in thailand as well so actually compared to other economies in asia the thai economy may pick up steam over the second half of the year and the election that we had yesterday might be a bit of a catalyst because we see a new government essentially fulfill these pledges in terms of more spending to help consumers friend does a lack of clarity when it comes to the us debt ceiling have a meaningful impact on asia so far not really we have really havent seen much in terms of ripples but as we get closer to the state expect investors to get a bit more twitchy out here because of course it matters what happens with us debt it will lead in the very near term potentially could help the dollar it could lead to rates volatility for example and that all of that impacts asia impacts risk assets across asia but so far its been relatively calm but dont discount this calmness that might just be that we still see the spike in volatility come as we get closer to the exit date so watch as we get into june and watch asian markets it might be a bit of a bit of a rough ride here if indeed we get to the to the actual deadline of raising the debt ceiling without a quick resolution