in our studio is the chief korean economist at jp morgan thank you for joining us this morning it is a beautiful one want to start on those export numbers 20 day export numbers down sharply what do you make of that seok indeed you are right the korean court number seven going down in the recent weeks and months including this mornings number but at the same time we have to bear in mind that most of the dragging effect is the price effect instead of the volume if you compare the price and volume the volume is relatively better holding up better so in terms of the growth profile what matters is the real volume growth which means that we think the real gdp growth should be faring better than what the experts are implying kathleen as we look ahead to friday a lot of things for the bank of korea to look at as it makes that decision probably between 25 and 50 basis points in terms of the rate hike when you look at the balance between where inflation is if the pressures look like they are continuing to build or decline if you look with the economy is going where do you see them going seok actually the rate is now near we are at three and a terminal rate may be 354375 so we have been expecting that the bank of koreas policy hike cycle should be more gradual than before instead of 50 maybe 25 because we are not fully sure how much we have to get to so as the end of the hike cycle is nearby we think the bank of korea will adjust its messages that may be the end of the year and probably him if the inflation number is not steadily stabilizing enough there are all of these signs of inflation i think it is the right time for them kathleen does the extreme credit market volatility that we have seen over the last month raise concerns about financial stability does it seal the deal for 25 instead of 50 seok it may be one of the factors to affect that because i think the bank of korea is trying to strike a balance between the inflation stabilizing mandate versus the stabilizing mandate so to that end i think the bank of korea is not going to jeopardize its mandate when stabilization  financial markets 25 basis points which may be defying the market expectation they will be lb destabilize market sentiment kathleen do you see any way in which this market episode seems to have stabilized there is still concern as to whether it has ended completely or not is it going to hit the economy or could hit the economy or if he continues seok it is inevitable to see some of the cost of the policy rate hikes in terms of growth slowdown and also sporadic financial stress like we have observed in the past couple of months at the same time i have to stress that that is the required slowdown or some stresses to stabilize inflation expectations kathleen so if the federal reserve signals and maybe even does a 50 basis point hike instead of 75 what is that going to mean for korean credit markets and the bank of korea seok korean credit markets it is more about the domestic credit conditions and yes you are right it depends on how far the bank of korea can go that is the function of how far that can go at the same time it is the fed policy hike to the bank of korea they are related but i think it will be how much the core inflation can stabilize going forward from here i think that that will be the key kathleen how about the yuan what role is that playing one of the weakest currencies in the world it has had a rebound possibly partly because investors are looking for somewhat less aggressive bank of korea how important is that how do you see that playing out where you see it going seok let me focus on some macroeconomy backdrop for the fx market in our sense there is some weakness of the korean yuan currency it was reflecting the trade and i think going forward it will be key to where in terms of trade we will be recovering or falling further from here and in terms of the impact from the fx market to the policies it should be some indirect impact from the currency to the bank of korea because the inflation is targeting the central bank not the currency in a way that if currency weakness is impacting the inflation outlook it will be impacted at the same time i have to stress the investment in the direct process to the end to some degree the 50 basis point hike decision in october was affected somewhat by the currency movement from here on if the currency market