trying to rein in do you think markets have overpriced the hawkish notice from the fed will that have to be reined in   good morning great to be back with you i think the key is what kind of inflation dominates at the moment and many growth indicators are starting to roll over the stagflation backdrop among several banks are hardpressed to address what the tools are at their disposal in the fed is tightening as it prioritizes high inflation we think it will balance that trade off of slower growth higher inflation by lagging the market pricing in terms of the pace the magnitude and duration of the timing cycle haidi when you look at cross pressures more broadly which ones do you see pullback because of the resolution of shorterterm issues driving price pressure   it depends on how you define resolution from most military and logistical experts there is limited resolution look at the markets equity it looks like there is some resolution being priced in but the physical markets commodity look at fertilizer prices no backing away from making highs the more broadbased index says the same story the financial markets are very disconnected with the real market i think part of that disconnection is due to the fact of talking about quantitative tightening or imminent tightening cycle more aggressive 43 billion the highest the biggest ballast  biggest balance sheet expansion and very much tied toward the relief rally we have seen kathleen jay powell said quantitative tightening could start as soon as may we heard chris waller and others suggesting quantitative tightening should start now not just the taper but start selling treasuries the fed seems bent on a hawkish path jay powell says the us economy is in good shape but what does it mean for emerging markets are they ready for that kind of move from the fed   one way we will roll all those dynamics into a very simple easy to follow measure is just look at global liquidity global money supply the growth in global liquidity has slowed from a record high of 215 last march and now 55 the slowest pace of global liquidity growth since the height of the pandemic in april 2020 this has enormous implications less so for the us but for emerging markets we see that in the volley in terms of asset class performance emerging markets do not perform very well without the marginal liquidity growth and there is a huge constraint add in the geopolitical risk and stave  and stagflation it is a very challenging backdrop for emerging markets kathleen and part of that is the fact that the us yield curve is sending its own signal parts of the curve have already inverted the three to five on friday and the 10 year has gotten close to making the curve local flat and possibly converting you say some emerging market countries are cushioned from this   yes when you look at the impact of the russian invasion of ukraine the withdrawal of global liquidity it will impact the global economy evenly we see many opportunities for rally the way in which market has traded the outbreak  treated the outbreak of war is overweight to the economies that benefit in terms of trade shock indonesia malaysia australia new zealand these economies are ultimately food and energy exporters items currently in short supply they are insulated from the dynamic prevailing at the moment