a new phrase from jim bullard right now well get right to and that is the phrase of the moment front loading jim bullard what is it i think we wanted to pull the rate increases forward in time because the inflation that we got in 2021 exploded onto the scene so we had to move more quickly than we would have historically but thats appropriate for this situation as were coming out of the pandemic and weve got you know a lot of fiscal policy a lot of monetary policy during the pandemic one of the questions that wall street has had after chairman powell has spoken in the past is he said that at some point its appropriate to slow the pace of increases and they take that as dovish others push back and say its not how fast we do it its where we go do you agree with that that the pace doesnt really matter as much as what the pace matters a little bit you do have to get to the level of the policy rate that will put downward pressure on inflation now and weve been able to get some downward pressure on inflation during the first half of this year most of that came through market pricing not through the actual level the funds rate but now you have to follow through and get the funds rate to to a level thats defensible that you can say hey im putting downward pressure on inflation weve got a eight handle on headline cpi inflation this is more inflation than weve seen in 40 years weve got to get the rate up well the concern that some members of the committee have had is that as you said its been market pricing its not the full effects yet of the tightening and when that hits the economy may be weak and then youre doing a disservice by sending us into recession a long and variable lags something uttered by milton friedman but that was based on data from the 50s and 60s i think todays markets partly because of media like this a move very quickly in response to projected paths of policy and i would say it as exhibit number one the housing market which has already slowed down substantially in the spring here and it started to do that before we even made much of a move we would only move 25 or maybe one or two moves and and hadnt even started the balance sheet runoff so i dont think this long and variable lags thing is as accurate as it might have been historically i think youre getting a lot of the impact now but we cant just rely on markets we have to get our rate up to the level that will put downward pressure on inflation ive said three point seventy five to four percent by the end of this year id like to get to that level and sooner is better as far as im concerned not if you would said neutral is higher than what chairman suggested we were there almost at two and a half percent but inflation is making thats a lot right thats a long run neutral that you can read that off the summary of economic projections and thats if the economy is on the balanced growth path inflation was at 2 percent expected to remain at 2 percent then that would be a logical level for the policy right then but thats not where we are today weve got all this inflation and weve got a very strong labor market so thats why it makes sense to go well above that to a recommended policy rate thats well above that thats thats not going to run neutral point change for you its not had a lift do you think we got back to the well the pre pandemic world of low inflation low growth and a lower long term neutral right what if we coming towards you know i dont like to get wrapped up in this because this is the thing we know the least about so its good to think about it thats good project about it but we dont really know where the where this everything will settle out lets say five to 10 years from now but you know youve got this immediate problem now where youve got the inflation today thats where youve got to fight your battle to that you told me you want balance sheet reduction fits into that weve heard numbers like a trillion dollars a balance sheet reduction over the next twelve months what is that to you in terms of tightening policy and how does that complement your thoughts on why rates should be high i think its it is a complement to the rate policy im hopeful that well get and i do think that weve got some downward pressure or upward pressure on longer term interest rates through this channel i think the econometric estimates are all over the map theyre very wide so well see one thing that i think may be pretty effective here is that this is a global quantitative tightening and so youve got many central banks moving in the same direction here all at once that may push longer term yields higher and help us keep inflation under control globally the st louis cardinals who had a spectacular august you know were still looking like the best team in baseball right now and theyve got a manager who is unique young in different a communication strategy that is original whats the next communication strategy for the fed is there too much communication i think we do a great job because i think its good to have a big committee theres information is coming in and continuous time youll appreciate and you have to react markets want to know well what do you think about to which when you think about that that you choice in this conversation blame the media for the mess were only you know we asked president harkin whether we should get rid of the top floor do you think he should i felt that we should do something with the dot plot but we havent figured out what to do i have talked with you guys about stepping out of it but i dont like the emphasis on lets say three years from now heres where were going to be the information content of that is close to zero so i dont think we should pretend that were saying something when we dont really know and we should probably keep it shorter term about well heres where we think we are you few approvals up to the lunch room at the st louis fed and as retirement can you have this surveillance team come out to celebrate that ok you think hes going to hit 700 i dont know that the home run he hit the other day pinch hitting in the third inning was extraordinary that grand slam was an to go on whats a grand slam sherman paul has to do before the september meeting what is the communication strategy he needs to do do you agree to him like the gentleman i think hell do a great job in this speech here i havent seen it so i dont know exactly what would you like you know its just its just this guy got 20 seconds this single sentence you like him i just said i dont know how but hell do a great job with that its a great opportunity and hell use it effectively to lay out the committee strategy