walk us through your forecast and the reasons why you have upgraded it and possibly the opportunity to upgrade then upgrade its forecast again soon well thank you for having me and what we are looking at is what effectively is going to be still a challenging year i mean what we are projecting for 2023 is two point nine percent growth then rebounding to three point one in 2024 these are still relatively low growth numbers for the global economy well below what we averaged from 2000 to 2019 for instance but still its an upgrade compared to what we were expecting back in october and this is due to resilience resilience resilience weve had more resilient households in the us and businesses as well weve had resilience to the energy crisis in europe a lot of economies have done better than was initially expected labor markets have been very very tight in many emerging and advanced economies as well and then in addition to all this you have the reopening of the chinese economy that is promising to give a boost to global activity in 2023 now that resilience spirit libya is making the job of central bank is perversely harder here whats your take well there is a little bit of good news on the inflation front but we should not exaggerate it so what we are seeing is that global inflation headline inflation has peaked already in 2022 and is coming down in the vast majority of countries the worry is more with what we call core inflation that excludes energy and food prices are typically more volatile and this core inflation measures have shown more persistent and they have not peaked yet in many countries and they are still far away from central bank targets so the job is not done and you are right to point out that more resilience on activity could mean more price pressures could mean that its harder for central banks to bring down inflation to target and therefore they might need to do more i think that your boss could see the gasoline georgieva said of course the covid which i say the post covid 0 china is going to perhaps be one of the impetus for growth as youve just alluded to but its also could be the next sort of inflation headache as well well similarly as the chinese economy reopens stutz could have put pressure on a number of primary commodities markets energy markets cetera but lets keep in mind that even with chinas reopening and we are grading china quite a bit we are projecting 52 percent growth in 2023 thats a zero point eight percentage point upward revision for china for for this year its still the global economy is slowing down and in terms of the overall demand demand for energy and commodities that is really what is going to be the driving force so china is doing better but the global economy is still cooling off and in our projections we are factoring in that we anticipate we expect prices of energy and and other commodities to actually decline through the year now youve also highlighted that the risks do remain to the downside why well ive mentioned already that we are far from having won the fight against inflation that could be a lot more persistence in inflation weve had a few good points its encouraging its in the right direction but lets not think that somehow the job is done far from it there could be price pressures that could be wage pressures there could be an escalation of the war in ukraine that again sends energy and commodity prices to the roof so there are a number of factors that could complicate the outlook in 2023 and that would make potentially a recession more likely a global recession more likely may require more tightening by central bank we could have also a tightening of financial conditions so far this has not happened too much but this is a new environment we have to be very vigilant in terms of the vulnerabilities in the financial markets in the nonbank financial institutions and the housing sector this tightening of policy rates by central bank is something that is really changing the environment here and we have to be very careful