welcome to the bloomberg surveillance newsletter a daily look at the best interviews and insights from bloomberg television and radio’s flagship morning show cohosted by tom keene jonathan ferro and me sign up here if you’re not yet a newsletter subscriber gloom has gone out of fashion on surveillance talk of a soft landing is now in vogue jpmorgan asset managements phil camporeale is now highly convicted that the us is in a soft landing and that the chance of recession has dropped to 25 from 40 in march brent schutte of northwestern mutual wealth management believes the us will get a recession but that itll be short and shallow cynics out there would say the shift in sentiment is directly related to the surge in stocks and riskier bonds this year how can you feel so pessimistic if you just clocked a 16 gain on the sp 500 so far this year but surveillance guests had another explanation the us economy is stronger than many people expected and prices are stabilizing a bit this is the immaculate disinflation that many people talked about a year ago with an economy normalizing after a pandemic under this theory the federal reserve may just get its cake and have it too tomorrows consumer price index data will likely underscore the disinflation trends taking hold even with a robust labor market and strong consumer spending the headline june cpi figure is expected to drop to 31 from 4 in the prior month on a yearoveryear basis some of the biggest components of us inflation are showing outright deflation with usedcar prices falling 42 in june their biggest monthly drop since the early days of the pandemic rents are plateauing and even dipping in certain regions and small businesses arent raising prices as frequently as they have over the past few years but there are some real questions about whether the disinflation can continue or whether the pace of normalization is a bit of a headfake the biggest risk to camporeales optimism is that inflation remains sticky prompting the fed to go further with rate hikes same thing goes for schutte and yet there are some confusing signs that point to certain sectors regaining steam and raising prices once again in the not so distant future take housing which was supposed to be an area of gloom and doom as mortgage rates surged the sector has been incredibly resilient and jonathan miller of miller samuel expects this to continue through the us housing prices are going to increase more than people think he said pointing to creative financing tools to adjust away from 7 mortgage rates and a lack of inventory and while many small businesses are holding off on price hikes for now some 31 of them said they plan to charge their customers more in the next three months the highest level since november according to a national federation of independent business report out today its been almost 18 months of war in ukraine and nato members are struggling to coalesce around its next steps  ukraine president volodymyr zelenskiy who is planning to attend the gathering of nato members currently underway in lithuania criticized the alliance for not offering a clear timeline for his bid to join “this looks like there’s neither readiness to invite ukraine to nato nor make it a member of the alliance” he wrote in the statement posted on twitter and telegram as julie norman of the ucl centre on us politics explained while theres backing within the alliance for offering ukraine membership it comes with important caveats there is general support for ukraine membership but what that actually looks like and what its timeline looks like is still very much debated within nato she said if ukraine is brought into nato while the wars going on would that cause all the members to be involved thats where the tensions stand if you say we will do this after the war ends that gives further incentive for vladimir putin to continue the war indefinitely and as bloombergs annmarie hordern also noted nato remains concerned about putin potentially deciding to double down maybe even using a tactical nuclear weapon in ukraine president joe biden also plans to meet with zelenskiy in vilnius where the summit is taking place china has signaled that more support measures for the economy are on the way in the wake of steps taken to try and bolster its ailing property market but win thin at brown brothers harriman was skeptical the chinese outlook remains very very concerning despite these announcements overnight” he said “i liken this to a bandaid on top of a gaping wound theres no really easy way out of this i think theres more and more talk about china going down the way of japans lost decade thats something well have to keep an eye on” bloomberg surveillance is live weekdays from 6 to 9 am new york time watch on bloomberg television on the terminal at tv and on youtube or listen to the show on bloomberg radio and radi from 7 to 10 am you can watch full episodes and subscribe to the bloomberg surveillance podcast check 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