its always good to have somebody from outside as it were helicopter in as you land in the middle east relative to the neurosis in new york london and davos about recession how is that either i mean first grade being here and thank you for having me manners they didnt warn me it would be raining for three days including in saudi but i think apart from that youre right i think the mood in the us is gloomy the mood in europe is gloomy despite the fact that the economy is doing very well and then you arrive here and you almost live on a different planet its booming the towns the cities the countries are transforming and the mood is much more uplifted than anywhere else in the world may i just be a little bit skeptical which is we have the liquidity drawbridge being pulled up i know gafcon is fairly light yeah but the liquidity landscape is changing in new york in london and paris lets keep the french and the italians and weve got pockets of money this is a liquidity pool for you so its a liquidity market not enough no of course but i think the liquidity in the market is a broader issue ok so first of all i was listening to your show earlier on will we have a recession at some stage absolutely the debate is no if the debate is when and the debate is how deep it is the one thing when you talk to the economists who usually are pretty bearish they will point out two things one is the consumer has never been in in such a good place in terms of balance sheet and corporates are in a good place so the leverage in the system is not there and therefore when you look at any possibility of recession whether its in the short term in the medium term we see it more towards your end you have to take that into account and think that ok were going to go into it but probably in a stronger position than we were in the past but heres the debate is it jobless claims yesterday jihye lee falling off a cliff they were they were lower but theyre not imploding the economy is not imploding so with that in mind how much higher do we need to go above 5 percent to really slow the economy produce unfortunately unemployment and to quell inflation i know your boss talks about excess of 5 percent would you defy your boss would you go to 6 percent go ahead if i may say say day by day but i wont defy him on interest rate okay i think what people tend to forget in 2022 we had the war in ukraine we had the second biggest economy in the world china being closed and we had the biggest energy crisis you had fed hiking and we had the dollar at a 20 year high compared to any other currency despite all that you look at across emerging market bar a few exceptions theyre still standing and doing okay and gm woods is doing very well so yes its frustrating but on the other hand now i look at the beginning of the year you have inflation was coming down quite massively probably more than the market expected hence the reaction you have the risk premium on energy that has disappeared assuming ukraine remains stable as atrocious as as bad as this war is if you dont have more space the market is pricing it as under control and you have china reopening so now i was i was in your lane notice i platter for me i have full allocated dinner that just says i want to take more risk vol is dropping is something we touched on through the week volatility is dropping thats got implications on var which is the risk at work in portfolios do you get a sense everybody is going to start to deploy for janet youre going to make your money its new budget were back at zero and this is what youre seeing right now we know cac minus is people if they look at the number and if they think about ok we have a recession coming then they see the market lower you see the research from our strategies that will tell you that the recession is not in the prices on the other hand were at the beginning of the year you have buckets of cash with asset managers people want to deploy nobody wants to fight the s  p in q1 and therefore youre seeing the market struggling it touch its brakes four thousand it wants to go a bit higher but fundamentally people enter the market probably a bit short the shorts are being flushed out you should see some some rebound will you go lower eventually absolutely the question is when a recession delayed perhaps do not and thats how it goes in your course scenario is we see another two hikes of 25 eventually assuming the inflation still goes down the economy should slow down but the recession is probably being pushed to the towards the end of the year now you still have that ceiling you still have the war in ukraine you still have china reopen it you have a lot of uncertainty and as jamie likes to point out were entering weve added kuti and this is something weve never seen before