when you were listening and when you when you heard him read his prepared economic statement how did it strike you was it even more hawkish than you might have expected well kathleen you mentioned that it was a simple short speech and that to me it sounded almost like a reprise of his jackson hole speech last year it was very concise very up to the point and very hawkish in terms of combating inflation at any cost possible so i think participants took note pricing in closer to like 40 basis points of tightening following his remarks and you know that could prove very difficult to walk back obviously you know chip powell opened the door to higher pay so the rate increases but it will be up to the data to decide whether the fed will follow up on a more aggressive policy action in a couple of weeks i think its really very important to watch payrolls this variety and of course the cpi report on tuesday but again unless the data surprises to the downside significantly i think it would be really dovish message from the fed if they continue with a 25 basis point rate hike is it your sense or we cant really tell from what jay powell said but we know that it was lael brainard the former vice chair of the federal reserve who was the first to push this view of maybe we need to downshift get to 25 basis points that was what three or four months ago ms brainard left shes taken a very important job in the by the administration now do you think you get some sense that there has been a shift as she got ready to leave and as she departed look to me as i was listening to chipotles remarks it sounded more like buyers remorse of some sort almost like went as far as to say that he regrets that the downshift did last time given what the data has been so its not just the recent data that surprised to the upside its the totality of data including the upward revisions still inflation so you almost like wanted to say that had we known what we know right now about the data and where we stand we would have probably not done 25 basis points at the last meeting yelena i mean marcus ive been talking about this higher for longer is sort of a scenario for quite a while but how much of a surprise was it that were talking about accelerating rate hikes and where is the shift right now are we seeing a more leanings towards a faster tightening pace or is it still the preferred scenario that is higher for longer look we are expecting a terminal rate of five five and three quarters this is our official view and we think that the fed will continue hiking at a 25 basis point pace but following todays remarks this clearly an upside risk to the march rules and that we will see from the data its really like the chipotle opened the door but its up to the data to decide and if we see like a significant upward surprise or something stronger in terms of inflation i think you know thats going to be a very difficult situation for powell to step back and thats why i think its very important to listen to the second day of testimony because you know the remarks the prepared remarks are almost identical always identical quite frankly but we will see if champ powell wants to refine the message tomorrow so does he want to reinforce the message does he want to walk back well have to listen for the q and a you talk about the data that its now up to the data on what comes next but i suppose that gets to the question of why has the data been so strong to you is this because the fed hasnt done enough or is it because theres structural elements within the data thats feeding through or is it the transmission lag in effect that we havent waited for because here in australia hearing the rba talk about potentially getting to a pause because they are worried that we will potentially see the impact once the transmission lag catches up well its kind of fall all the above so theres an element of seasonality and warm weather in the latest data no question about that so we think we estimate almost like 30 percent of the blockbuster payrolls report number that we saw in january was due to warm weather but you know you cannot just completely ignore the fact that the data has been really strong broad based so you look at payrolls you look at the personal spending retail sales you name it and theres clearly been some read celebration in the momentum i think part of it is that the legs are those you know infamous long and variable legs so think about where we were a year ago or nine months ago not near anywhere that would constitute the type of policy stance so i think we just have to wait and also be very careful and walk in 25 basis point increments you did you just say you think they should walk in 25 basis point increments are you saying that they should not do 50 and does that mean you dont think they have that much further to go some people say 6 percent plus is in the cards i mean the risk management approach would say well you have to be very careful and yet theres some you know long and variable x impact so that would prescribe but 25 basis point increments but again if the february date surprises to the upside and this is very important because january data was so strong so we just need to see whether this was really due to some temporary fix this or not is it a real re acceleration we need to see at least two months of data and if we are in the acceleration phase i think you know the fed will need to do more