lets talk about the markets in three minutes then mark unless of course start with the days point of the day well return to this theme a number of times through the hour but in terms of cpi some people are watching for a moderation in core cpi someone watching core services really closely and some are watching for any clues of course as to whether this means 25 or 50 basis points in february whats going to be key and in focus for you when this data hits later on today so i think probably the main message that even kind of from the way you phrased that is everyone is expecting a soft print the whisper numbers for low expectations and i think bloomberg economics has been exceptional over the last year or so and has outperformed the street in a difficult economic environment on bloomberg economics expect a soft print today kind of validating the whisper number out there i think if we get a beat it will be a massive shock to the market so the expectation is that were going to miss what is officially the official median because even the late forecasts are lower than the current median its because people have consistently downgraded their kind of expectations for today so i think that if i were to really see as a soft print it would have to come in quite a bit below expectations theres also though acknowledged that the fed over the next twenty six hours will push back but this is the moment all week has been a market that wants to sell the dollar that wants yields to go lower that wants to play the deflationary theme and thats been very clear in the price action im in the camp that that might get a little bit cleaned out because theres any risk of surprise today but i have to say certainly though the market seems to be skewed against me at the moment right yes it does make things a little nervy doesnt it going into the prince knowing that so many in the market expect to certain things happen what about whats going on in the year you referenced it that was talking about the gm man mark weve seen some big decent moves in the yen do you think this is overdone though in the short term i know that youve been somebody who has been expecting to be okay to change course on monetary policy and of course we saw a little tweak to policy in december that set the stage for more changes to come but you think the market expects too much in the very short term yes i think that the markets consensus here is very strong and the logic is absolutely spot on it is the idea that inflation will come to japan too weve already seen signs that over the last few months but it is going to be a kind of kind of come through in a sustainable way were gonna get those wage increases the japanese economy will hold okay and the bank of japan will be forced to capitulate on policy and remove its yield curve control im with the market there absolutely i think will happen this year the problem is is the market is selling dollar yen aggressively going into the start of the year on the basic on the back of this logic but the bank of japan might not change policy friend number of months still which leaves the fact that everyone is selling dollar yen on a move or for a reason thats maybe potentially many months away quite dangerous now if you add the extra layer that buying yen is actually disinflationary deflationary for japan and makes it less like the baggage panel move it means that getting premature in the timing actually makes it less likely to come sooner so i think that moves dangerous i think that the yen consensus long will suffer badly in the next few weeks again there seem to be battling a majority here this is just a brief word on copper i mean its one of the commodities that has been responding to the reopening trade in china yes absolutely i think this is validating theres a real economic push there i have heard speculation that it might be about some specific position cleaning out but i think it is a very very important real world kind of validation that the people who at least trade that asset think theyre chinas reopening is going to be very strong economically and not going to suffer too much disruption from the health consequences of the covid wave yeah absolutely we wait for any updates there more on china later in the program thanks mark for his thoughts so far emily chang go with the function its yours if you want to get set on top of the markets live blog youll find plenty of coverage of the cpi print later today and anything else that is leaving markets