bengaluru nov 1 reuters  indias fastdepleting foreign exchange reserves are likely to drop more than was predicted just a month ago by end2022 as the reserve bank of india will continue to shield the rupee from the dollars strength a reuters poll found even though the rbi has drawn down about 118 billion from its currency reserves from a peak of 642 billion over a year ago the rupee has fallen nearly 12 during the same period it touched a lifetime low of 8329 per dollar on oct 20 indias forex reserves were forecast to fall to 510 billion from around 525 billion by the end of this year the oct 28nov 1 reuters poll of 19 economists showed that was lower than 523 billion in a september poll estimates were in a 520480 billion range reserves of more than 500 billion are generally seen by most economists as adequate for india the rbi governor downplayed the loss in fx reserves in his last monetary policy address noting valuation losses stemming from a stronger dollar and higher us bond yieldshowever that is at best a glass half full picture said a prasanna chief economist at icici securities primary dealership a few economists in the poll also cautioned forex reserves could fall more than they are currently predicting over the coming year due to a ballooning current account deficit which according to a separate poll was expected to end the fiscal year at its widest in a decade that implies further potential depletion in fx reserves that the rbi needs to account for prasanna said a drop in foreign currency assets the largest component of indias foreign exchange reserves is the main reason for the overall decline this year with the us dollar expected to remain strong in the short to mediumterm that depletion trend was unlikely to reverse anytime soon till the dollar cycle turns andor global rates start coming off further valuation losses can potentially worsen the fx reserves adequacy metrics said samiran chakraborty chief economist for india at citi hdfc banks principal economist sakshi gupta said the dollar which has come off a recent peak could easily reclaim those highs on higher us inflation surprises if that happens consequently the rupee would then be moving towards 8350 or even higher which i think will trigger rbi intervention gupta said reporting by vivek mishra and devayani sathyan polling by maneesh kumar editing by hari kishan ross finley and ed osmond