the global economy is grappling with multiple shocks including fallout from russias invasion of ukraine which sparked sanctions and there is no recovery in sight for moscow imf economic counsellor pierreolivier gourinchas said tuesday in the international monetary funds latest world economic outlook report it cut its forecast for global growth and warned that major economies will continue to stall below is an excerpt from an afp interview with gourinchas we are projecting a recession in 2022 and were also anticipating it will decline further in 2023 in fact if you look beyond 2023 we anticipate that output will keep going down or staying very low so there is no recovery in sight in the russian economy the high energy prices and the continued energy exports by russia through the first half of 2022 have certainly propped up the russian economy but the shock is still large and very very persistent energy plays a very important role in the revision to the forecast and the projections for german and italian output because theyre very dependent on gas gas has become extremely expensive fiscal policy has a role to play in being supportive and helping vulnerable households or critical parts of the industry the worry there is that it has to be done in a way that addresses the underlying energy crisis an energy policy that countries may want to put in place to protect households needs to also make sure that it doesnt exacerbate the energy crisis that it doesnt stimulate demand the battle against inflation has not been won by far if central banks move away from the path theyve announced then you could see inflation pressures remaining more persistent more inflation and the risk you run is at some point people households businesses start looking at this and say well you know this promise of having 2 percent inflation is a joke were not going to get that and at that point you have a much harder fight ahead of you to bring down inflation