istanbul oct 14 reuters  turkeys central bank is expected to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 11 next week a reuters poll showed on friday after president tayyip erdogan called for more easing each month and said rates should be single digits by yearend the central bank has shocked the markets twice in the past two months by cutting its policy rate trinteci by 100 basis points each time lowering it to 12 despite inflation soaring above 83 in september monetary easing is part of erdogans unorthodox economic programme that seeks to boost growth investments employment and exports by lowering borrowing costs especially for exporters and small and mediumsized companies the president who has great influence over the central bank gave even more explicit policy direction earlier this month when he said the bank would continue cuts every month as long as i am in power thirteen out of 20 economists that participated in the reuters poll predicted the bank would lower its policy rate to 11 at its meeting on oct 20 six predicted it would hold steady at 12 while one forecast a cut to 1150 turkeys recent monetary policy decisions have not been based on conventional economic principles said credit suisse the authorities will probably continue to implement ad hoc measures as long as they can in order to sustain what we view as this ultimately unsustainable policy stance it said in a note the timing of a conventional policy adjustment will also crucially hinge in our view on political considerations in particular the presidentialparliamentary elections that will be held no later than in mid2023 it added inflation has surged since november 2021 after the central bank embarked on an easing cycle that saw rates lowered by 500 basis points between september and december last year the cuts triggered a currency crisis and the lira ended the year down 44 against the dollar stoking inflation the currency is down another 29 this year a median estimate of 23 economists for inflation at yearend stood at 725 in the reuters poll compared to the governments forecast of 65 economists saw it declining to 405 by the end of 2023 one of the main aims of erdogans economic programme is to flip turkeys current account deficit to a surplus which ankara says will eventually lower inflation however soaring global energy and commodity prices as well as an expected slowdown in exports have made that target all but unattainable the government does not foresee a surplus in the next three years the current account deficit was seen at 65 of gross domestic product gdp this year and 40 next year according to the median estimate of 17 economists compared with the government forecasts of 59 and 25 respectively gdp growth was seen at 50 this year and 30 next year based on 34 economists forecasts polling by milounee purohit writing by ali kucukgocmen editing by jonathan spicer and hugh lawson