the s  p 500 could fall to the low 3000 range as an earnings recession appears unavoidable but the market may then not stay down for long said mike wilson morgan stanleys chief us equity strategist who was correctly bearish going into this tough year for markets were in a cyclical downturn for growth and thats the fireandice narrative to a tee right the tightening policy and the slowing growth he said monday on cnbcs  squawk box  and were just not finished yet in our estimation market observers have questioned where the bottom of the market will be now that the federal reserve appears to be willing to tolerate a recession in order to win its battle against inflation wilsons bear case for the s  p 500 is around 3000 with his base case at 3400 the strategist said he sees potential for both cases with the softlanding for earnings now less likely these estimates represent a drop of about 8 to 18 from the s  p 500s current level the rapid move in rates were another bad sign in the strategists view with the oneyear treasury bill yield surpassing 4 monday wilson said this could be an unusual moment in the market the employment picture can create confusion about the state of the economy as the labor shortage keeps wages up which isnt typically seen during recessionary periods wilson also noted there is so much money sloshing around compared to other times with an economic downswing but he would not use that to make bets on where the market goes he said efforts to curbing inflation is the medicine to get the country out of the debt trap it has been trying to free itself from since the 2008 recession the market needs time to readjust to the headwinds as the feds attempts to control inflation through rate hikes he said to be sure wilson said we are nearing a turning point and he is getting ready to spring into action once the market hits the firms target the s  p 500 is off 23 from its high and near its lowest levels in 2 years were getting close to the end he said the damage has been done  now were actually starting to get ready to be more aggressive its just not time yet in our view and to be premature can be quite costly the sp 500 could fall to the low 3000 range as an earnings recession appears unavoidable but the market may then not stay down for long said mike wilson morgan stanleys chief us equity strategist who was correctly bearish going into this tough year for markets were in a cyclical downturn for growth and thats the fireandice narrative to a tee right the tightening policy and the slowing growth he said monday on cnbcs squawk box and were just not finished yet in our estimation market observers have questioned where the bottom of the market will be now that the federal reserve appears to be willing to tolerate a recession in order to win its battle against inflation wilsons bear case for the sp 500 is around 3000 with his base case at 3400 the strategist said he sees potential for both cases with the softlanding for earnings now less likely these estimates represent a drop of about 8 to 18 from the sp 500s current level the rapid move in rates were another bad sign in the strategists view with the oneyear treasury bill yield surpassing 4 monday wilson said this could be an unusual moment in the market the employment picture can create confusion about the state of the economy as the labor shortage keeps wages up which isnt typically seen during recessionary periods wilson also noted there is so much money sloshing around compared to other times with an economic downswing but he would not use that to make bets on where the market goes he said efforts to curbing inflation is the medicine to get the country out of the debt trap it has been trying to free itself from since the 2008 recession the market needs time to readjust to the headwinds as the feds attempts to control inflation through rate hikes he said to be sure wilson said we are nearing a turning point and he is getting ready to spring into action once the market hits the firms target the sp 500 is off 23 from its high and near its lowest levels in 2 years were getting close to the end he said the damage has been done  now were actually starting to get ready to be more aggressive its just not time yet in our view and to be premature can be quite costly