tuesday market open it’s been three weeks since the sp 500® spx enjoyed a twoday win streak today we’ll see if wall street can match that feat after yesterday’s impressive gains so far so good stocks are in the green and treasury yields fell for the secondstraight day after the reserve bank of australia delivered a smaller than expected rate hike of 25 basis points analysts had predicted 50 the socalled “fed pivot crowd” that hopes for the fed to pause its rate hikes sooner rather than later feels vindicated this morning that’s driving lower rate expectations which could provide temporary relief stock also rose in europe and japan overnight the us 10year treasury yield fell to 359 after topping 4 last week it hasn’t closed below 36 since sept 21 the us dollar also weakened further from last week’s highs a lot of dials are starting to point more in the right direction at least for the momentstill there’s skepticism about how much staying power any upward move might have considering that investor necks might still be suffering whiplash after the summer rally completely fizzled in september and we haven’t gotten much in the way of indication from fed speakers so far this week that the fed is going to move toward a lower rate hike with the cboe volatility index® vix still just below 30 this morning it’s no time for investors to put caution aside at the end of the day growth will be the ultimate driver right now the lower rates are helping but vix is still in the upper20s which tells you the victory flag isn’t flying yet the lower rates could also potentially be setting us up to be blindsided by some of the employment data this week monday’s weak construction and manufacturing data fed into falling treasury yields and inflation fears softened slightly those fears could come back if labor data today thursday and friday doesn’t also show signs of easing bulls would like to see the headline number of this morning’s jolts job openings report fall below 11 million thursday’s weekly jobless claims also loom large after a fivemonth low of 193000 posted last week for the report to be considered bullish that number would have to rise the september payrolls report on friday is expected to show 250000 new jobs created that month according to wall street consensus remember that any bad data news would likely be viewed positively by the market as investors hope for the downward rate pressure seen early this week to continue factory orders are also ahead today after monday’s weak ism manufacturing data analysts expect a 04 august rise according to briefingcom fed speakers are out on the hustings all week with the potential to add to the hawkish forecasts that hurt last week’s market the cme fedwatch tool projects a 62 chance a 75basispoint november rate hike this week the united nations called on central banks to halt rate hikes warning they could cause a global downturn it’s a slow earnings week but conagra cag and mccormick mkc report thursday so pass the pumpkin spice retreating yields took pressure off the dollar on monday which in turn lifted pressure on the stock market the spx rose nearly 26 to 3678 the dow jones industrial average® dji increased 266 to 29490 and the nasdaq® climbed almost 23 to 10815 every spx sector made up ground monday but energy outpaced all of them with gains of more than 57 wti crude surged nearly 5 yesterday ahead of what analysts expect will be a production cut announced at this week’s opec meeting the worrisome thing is that lower gas prices appeared to drive consumer inflationary expectations lower over the last few months if that starts to change it could give the fed another reason to stay hawkish other leading sectors yesterday included materials utilities and communication services the worst sector was consumer discretionary airlines cruise lines and restaurants were among companies in the red monday perhaps a sign that recession fears remain elevated tesla nasdaq tsla suffered sharp losses of nearly 9 after its quarterly deliveries disappointed investors if demand for expensive electric cars declines it could be a sign that even wealthy consumers are starting to feel the economy pinch semiconductors a beatendown subsector had a pretty nice day monday intel intc led the way and the phlx semiconductor index sox rose a solid 376 the market’s big leap monday came despite more signs of q3 earnings woe the q3 sp 500 earnings growth outlook sank to 29 in research firm factset’s latest report down from the previous projection of 32 analysts spent the last quarter making their largest cuts to sp 500 earningspershare estimates in more than two years factset noted the sectors getting chopped the most were materials communication services consumer discretionary information technology and health care unfortunately we’re probably far from finished seeing downside revisions to earnings foul is fair one reason for monday’s bullish tone might’ve been the recent run of soft economic data this goes back to the “bad is good” thesis that posits weak economic performance could get the fed to loosen its icy grip on the market sooner rather than later three poor data readings in a row friday and monday hinted that maybe the fed’s hawkish policy is finally starting to have an impact friday’s chicago purchasing managers index pmi fell way under expectations for september and monday’s ism manufacturing index for september also disappointed construction spending for august fell 07 compared with a consensus projection of 02 and july’s 06 drop the ism reading of 509 showed the us manufacturing sector is just barely in expansion mode a reading of 50 or higher and was down from 528 the previous month it also came in below analysts’ expectations according to briefingcom the important thing here is the monthtomonth softening of the manufacturing sector waiting for a jolt those soft data readings didn’t come from the labor market though and the current robust jobs picture is really making the fed’s job hard that’s why today’s jolts august job openings report looms large the last one showed job openings above 112 million in july if that falls below 11 million it might be one sign that a slowing economy is finally squeezing job growth and demand this wouldn’t be surprising considering all the recent layoff and hiring freeze notices from corporations naturally no one wants to see people losing jobs but it’s hard to imagine the fed getting any less hawkish as long as unemployment remains near historic lows and job openings stay near record highs coal steams ahead coal is not losing power despite rumors to the contrary spot prices for us coal topped 200 a ton recently for the first time according to the us energy information administration eia this may be helping coal company shares like peabody energy corp btu and arch resources arch the global supply chain recovery from pandemic shutdowns record summer heat and the war in ukraine have contributed to coal’s rising popularity the old adage is that “high prices cure high prices” but that might not describe all of what’s going on with coal right now european demand could remain strong as the crisis in ukraine prevents most russian natural gas from flowing toward that continent while supply chains for coal remain sluggish meanwhile us coal production is going full steam ahead pun intended and producers may not be able to raise it much higher bloomberg reported oct 14 september retail sales october preliminary university of michigan sentiment and earnings from jp morgan chase jpm citigroup c wells fargo wfc and morgan stanley ms this post contains sponsored advertising content this content is for informational purposes only and not intended to be investing advice