march 4  welcome to the home for realtime coverage of markets brought to you by reuters reporters you can share your thoughts with us at marketsresearchthomsonreuterscom as part of the most recent american association of individual investors aaii sentiment survey read more  aaii asked its members how crude oil prices are impacting their outlook for stocks aaii reported that slightly more than onethird of respondents 34 said that they have a bearish outlook on stocks as a result of rising oil prices conversely 26 of respondents said that oil prices are having little to no impact on their outlook approximately 19 view the rise in oil prices as a buying opportunity for stocks particularly those in the energy sector roughly 14 of respondents have a mixed outlook here are a couple of investor quotes on the matter “i am not sure that oil prices will have the biggest effect on stocks i think the russian invasion of ukraine will have a bigger effect although the two are tied together” “all things delivered all things made with chemicals all transportation food bills and utility bills are going to continue to increase anything that reduces costs for any of these items may be a good investment” the percentage of individual investors with a bullish shortterm outlook for the us stock market rose for a secondstraight week in the latest american association of individual investors sentiment survey aaii with this pessimism decreased significantly while neutral sentiment rebounded aaii reported bullish sentiment or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months surged 70 percentage points to 304 optimism was last higher on january 6 2022 328 even with the rise bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 380 for the 15th consecutive week bearish sentiment or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months collapsed 122 percentage points to 414 even with the sharp drop pessimism is still above its historical average of 305 for the 15th consecutive week neutral sentiment or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months rose by 52 percentage points to 282 this is the second consecutive week that neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 315 aaii noted that bullish sentiment is back within its typical range for the first time in eight weeks pessimism however remains unusually high for the third consecutive week aaii added that historically unusually high bearish sentiment readings have been followed by aboveaverage and abovemedian sixmonth returns in the sp 500 index with these changes the bullbear spread improved to 11 from 303 last week read more  a weekly loss of 7 makes this the worst week for the paneuropean stoxx 600 stoxx since the march 2020 covid19 crash significant escalations in the russiaukraine war saw the week end on a low with the index down around 35 on friday the stoxx 600 is now down 147 from its earlyjanuary record closing high losses were broad based with travel and leisure sxtp industrials sxnp and financial services sxfp hit especially hard of note euro zone banks sx7e are now off 30 just since their midfebruary closing high autos sxap are down 26 from their midjanuary closing peak curmudgeons and pessimists looking for reasons to jeer at fridays employment report had their work cut out for them us payrolls grew usnfareci by 678000 in february breezing past the 400000 consensus and marking an unexpected acceleration from januarys upwardly revised 481000 job adds read more hiring conditions proved to be favorable in february as employers were able to attract workers back into the labor force writes charlie ripley senior investment strategist at alliance investment management looking into the details job additions were broad based and payrolls in pandemicaffected sectors rebounded as expected no matter how you slice the report the results look very strong from all angles ripley adds the print marked the fifth consecutive upside surprise and the tenthstraight reading above the 400000 mark it means the economy has recovered all but 21 million of the 22 million it hemorrhaged at the onset of the covid crisis the unemployment rate usunreci fell more than expected shaving off 02 percentage points to 38 the lowest level since february 2020 the month before abrupt shutdown mandates hobbled the economy overnight broken down by length of joblessness the biggest decrease occurred on the shorter end with those unemployed for fewer than 5 weeks accounting for about onethird of the total those out of work for fewer than 15 weeks account for about 62 of the unemployment pie a state of affairs which suggests employers are growing increasingly reluctant to hand out pink slips amid a tight labor market one of the brighter stars of this upbeat report was the labor market participation rate which inched up to 623 while only a 01 percentage point advance it does suggest americans are returning from the sidelines a phenomenon which typically puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate the fact that it fell suggests those who are jumping back into the job pool are quickly finding work the labor force participation rate was arguably the most noteworthy component of today’s release which came in at its highest level since march 2020 says peter essele head of portfolio management at commonwealth financial network more individuals on payrolls means greater aggregate purchasing power from consumers if the current trend continues today’s equity markets will look like a bargain by year end essele adds but wage growth among the stickier varieties of inflation was probably the shows headliner surprising analysts by doing nothing average earnings held flat for the month and yearoveryear wage growth unexpectedly decelerated to 51 from januarys downwardly revised 55 the good news is hourly wages were actually flat and today’s numbers seem to be diminishing that fear of wage inflation said peter cardillo chief market economist at spartan capital securities thats something that the fed is obviously going to look at very carefully but does it portend a more dovish fed it does not change the picture for march cardillo adds even with the current geopolitical circumstances the fed cannot risk not raising rates cardillos sentiment is echoed by the chart below which shows wage growth along with other major indicators running redhot cruising well above powell  cos average annual 2 inflation target in other good news the disparity in joblessness among racial and ethnic lines narrowed a bit last month unemployment ticked down across the four major racialethnic categories the rate among black and hispanic workers fell most by 03 and 05 percentage points respectively while at 66 and 44 those numbers are above the headline rate the whiteblack jobless gap shrank to 33 percentage points despite the ongoing disparity their rate of recovery can be attributed to fiscal stimulus packages passed last year according to heidi shierholz president of the economic policy institute all groups are seeing far far faster recoveries than they did following the great recession and that’s about cares and arpa shierholz tweeted the importance of those policies to labor market healing following the worst recession in our lifetime cannot be overstated tenacious debbie downers could find some less rosy news in the socalled real unemployment rate which inched up to 72 from 71 a month ago this marked the first uptick since the stratospheric spike of april 2020 this datum adds those only marginally attached to the labor market to the unemployment total last months increase appears to be largely attributable to the growing number of workers whose gigs are for economic reasons part time to land the plane market participants were largely looking at the jobs report through the lens of what is likely the next big catalyst the feds upcoming monetary policy meeting the dominant opinion appears to be that it hasnt changed rate hike expectations this report will make no difference to the fed’s decision later this month theyll hike by 25 basis points says ian shepherdson chief economist at pantheon macroeconomics who adds that the fomcs more dovish members will be happy to see rising participation and the soft wage growth number because they add weight at the margin to the idea that the labor market might not be a source of secondround inflation pressure wall streets jobs report bounce was shortlived having faded by the opening bell geopolitical worries are dominating sentiment with all three major us stock indexes sharply lower in late morning trading emerging market stocks have outperformed us stocks so far this year but traders in the options market are exhibiting a greater degree of nervousness around em stocks relative to us stocks than they have done in 7 months the ishares msci emerging markets etf eemp one of the largest etfs tracking em stocks is down 84 for the year compared with a 9 decline for the spdr sp 500 etf trust spyp still traders are more fearful of a pullback in em stocks than they are about weakness in us large caps the cboe emerging markets volatility index vxeem is trading at a 7 point premium to the cboe volatility index vix the largest the gap has been since early august excessively defensive positioning often acts as a contrarian signal of an approaching nearterm bottom in prices the last time the spread between vxeem and vix rose this high for more than a day was in july and eem shares were up 13 a week later with little sign of russiaukraine crisis letting up however em stocks might remain pressured for some time wall streets main indexes are down in early trade on friday as concerns over the intensifying conflict in ukraine overshadowed data that showed an acceleration in jobs growth last month financials spsy and especially banks spxbk are among the hardest hit groups so far energy spny is the sole gaining major sp 500 spx sector nymex crude futures are rallying around 5 though amid a flighttosafety the us 10year treasury yield is sliding around 10bps to the 173 area of note the nasdaq composite ixic has once again backed away from its descending 30day moving average read more  this moving average perfectly capped strength on thursday leading to renewed weakness it now stands as resistance at around 13815 here is where markets stand in early trade us stock index futures are lower on friday as fears over the war in ukraine deepen putting the main indexes on track for weekly declines futures did improve somewhat after the release of the labor departments february jobs data however they have since weakened again february nonfarm jobs came in above estimates while the unemployment rate slipped average hourly earnings were cooler than estimates equities globally were already weaker with safehavens in demand after russian invasion forces seized europes biggest nuclear power plant on friday in heavy fighting in southeastern ukraine triggering global alarm but a huge blaze in a training building has been extinguished and officials said the facility was now safe read more regarding the jobs data chris zaccarelli chief investment officer at independent advisor alliance said its a very strong report it’s going to be overshadowed by events in ukraine and another sign the job market is hot and that the fed needs to move more quickly to start raising rates zaccarelli added theres no doubt weve got a hot job market and high inflation regardless of whats happening in ukraine the fed must move quickly here is your premarket snapshot for fridays live markets posts prior to 0900 est1400 gmt  click here read more terence gabriel is a reuters market analyst the views expressed are his own