tuesdays inflation report could send stocks for a wild ride jpmorgan traders said monday slated to come out at 830 am et the consumer price index gauges inflation by tracking price changes within a broad basket of items the january reading is expected to show a 62 yearoveryear increase according to economists polled by dow jones if that consensus estimate is correct jpmorgans sales and trading desk expects the s  p 500 to add between 15 and 2 in tuesdays session before seeing the rally fade the desk is in alignment with the dow jones polled economists most likely expecting cpi to show an increase of 6 and 63 in january from the same month a year prior the jpmorgan sales and trading desk is a different entity than its research team heres the desks full estimates for how the market could move in response to varying readings with the likelihood that each case is correct 5 probability cpi above 65 this bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis s  p 500 down 25 to 3 25 probability cpi between 64 and 65 the hawkish outcome here would not be as negative as if this occurred last year s  p 500 down 15 65 probability cpi between 60 and 63 this bullish outcome would likely pull yields lower along with the usd and boost risk assets s  p 500 up 15 to 2 before fading 5 probability cpi below 6 likely reprices expectations for the fed to complete two more rate hikes to just one more rate hike s  p 500 up between 25 and 3 s  p 500 options meanwhile have priced in a 2 move following the cpi release according to the firm thats in line with how the market has moved in response to the data over the past year the jpmorgan trading desk has made bold predictions in the past and at one point last year word of their expectations spread on wall street and moved the market the dow jones industrial average gained 500 points ahead of novembers reading after the trading desks scenarios showed the s  p 500 would move at least 2 with one of the most unlikely ones resulting in a potential swing of as much as 10  the market is seeing similar trading action ahead of the latest print the dow jumped about 300 points monday  the s  p 500 and nasdaq composite each gained more than 1 decembers tickdown of 01 monthovermonth was the largest drop since 2020 it was welcomed by investors looking for signs that inflation was cooling enough for the federal reserve to pause or pivot on its interest rate hike campaign however tuesdays report still has the potential to deliver bad news for investors cnbcs michael bloom contributed to this report