on where we are at the us macro story right now because we have the nonfarm payrolls data has this led you to reassess any of your assumptions around what the fed does and when skylar yeah it is interesting because we come at this high pace and that has been the story for this year in terms of us economic growth we had massive stimulus and the reopening move so we are coming from this high pace and accelerating quickly but that does not mean data is necessarily strong the data  the market got ahead of itself where we had the cpi print and inflation print that is coming down but does that  that does not mean that the markets are still coming strong we think that the fed will have to do more than the market was expecting and that has been our thinking throughout this year i think what has changed is perhaps the market reaction to that in terms of we have had these needs before the nonfarm payrolls and services data yesterday the market seems to want to rally despite this data coming in strongly that is shrinking our view in terms of if markets are not reacting you should be taking that with a grain of salt anna an increasing disconnect between what data is telling us and what markets anticipate is it about the timing different margin if you think that rather than it being a fundamental disconnect between strong data and an expectation of some kind of pivot within the markets skylar this is what is interesting it is telling you something different from the equities market which is different from the narrative in terms of the cpi print ppi print all of them were coming down and moderating we knew that would happen but the narrative has been the fact that there will be a more dovish fed but if you look at terminal rates over the last month they have not really changed what do you see instead from the rates market is the front end has not rallied but you are seeing this rally in fixed income that tells you it is more of growth rather than an expectation that the federal reserve will not go as far as the market expected a month ago that to me should not be good and that is the reaction you have seen this year in terms of bad news seen as good news or the markets in terms of equities is worried about the growth factor in the fed it is interesting because the narrative has been this dovish fed but i am not seeing that beyond there is more cuts priced in for 2023 but the rates market while they rallied it seems more to be in  then the fed anna i got a comment from one analyst yesterday that was saying in his expectation the fed will only do 50 basis points in december and they will pause to assess what has been done already the impact that does not necessarily seem to jive with the majority of this do you see some sense in that argument skylar i see some sense in terms of  exists but they do not know how much it impacts fed decision making and how much they are going to pause but therein lies monetary policy we know this but we just do not know when the fed thinks they have done enough to do that pause i think it is potentially further away than one more 50 basis point hike because historically the fed has waited to get the rates above actual inflation before they pause or pivot to do anything else it seems we are far away from that from where the policy rate is now it does make sense in terms of pausing assessing of what monetary policy is feeding in and you are seeing other central banks like the central bank of canada and the rba but there is an important distinction between those two  s and that the longterm us housing market is more about longterm fixedrate mortgages the us is less sensitive to interest rate rises than the bank of canada or the rba the mortgage market is much more vulnerable that is needed for their terms of pausing because they worry about financial stability but the fed is not worried about that yet