theres the market is still trying to figure out what it should most worry about and so you know its like just when you think something maybe were at peak inflation passed us maybe the supply chain problems are coming down but then you have new things and so theres just been this this this sell off that continues to find new rationale and then you have the fed leaning on the market actually and when when powell sounded too dovish you know first all of his peers came out to to say no no you know the market were going to keep going and theyve continued to say that kashkari most recently so see if the fed kind of intent on showing that they mean what they saying and in so and probably liking that the market is going down in an orderly way even if its created some disorder in other markets look whats happening in the uk and so im used to and were were all used to sell offs that are fairly quick that we know even 0 8 was five or six months from lehman to the lows of march 09 where at the end of it you can kind of wonder is there an all clear sign we have the fed behind us quantitative easing now we dont really know who the savior is because at the end of all of this were still going to have quantitative tightening and shrinking the balance sheet and so whereas a lot of sell offs were just a prelude to to a bull market one or six months later you know this has the feeling to me like were going to be worried about some number of these things or new things for potentially quarters and maybe even years to come so so no capitulation yet no flush which gives us that all clear signal how much of that is based on truly not knowing what the feds going to do or is it we dont know which potential problem is real and which is fake news i thought these things are so hard to predict i even want to be cautious about you know opining too much because its just such a confusing market and there hasnt been a single thing to say okay this is why the market by 20 percent is not enough it should be 40 lets take inflation if you look at forward inflation its expected to come down a lot so you could look at tomorrows cpi print if it comes in a tenth or below or high and get excited about it but the market is still telling you inflation is not going to be the problem that it is one year from now now if a few months from now that conviction is shaken then were going to have a real strong sell off if somehow russia heaven forbid becomes more asymmetric were going to have a real problem and so we just dont know were in a fog and we should not rely on the lessons that people learned maybe incorrectly for this environment that were good between 0 8 and 20 and 2022 which was the fed is your putt dont fight the fed and dips should all be bought and being short is is fighting the fed this really does not feel like that environment in particular because of where the central banks are versus them so so but the one lesson that should carry through sounds like continue not to fighting the fed when the fed reverses their position im glad you said that very because because about nine years ago i had a prospective investor in my office where a long ball fund one of our main products has long volatility and i dont know if he didnt quite know that because he kind of wagged his finger at me and said didnt you know its like sunny didnt someone ever tell you dont fight the fed just to be long volatility when mario draghi said trust me ill do whatever it takes thats a look and that but that that psychology of dont fight the fed dont be short is in my opinion a lazy persons way of saying lets always be long because if you if that person were around today i dont exactly remember it even was to to make that call back and say if you really believe and dont fight the fed how much of your risk did did you take down when the fed said that they really meant business and were going to be selling our assets for years to come and plus all of these problems that when you add up the number of problems in different theaters i cant think of a car larry that you know to me it does feel worse in many respects than than any other