eu industrial production france ilo unemployment cpi italy foreign trade eu uk first quarterly estimate of gdp index of services monthly gdp estimates index of production trade business investment in the uk niesr monthly gdp tracker updates from flutter entertainment sasol pandora europe is poised for a subdued open after us stocks ended mixed on thursday as the recent rally tied to cooler inflation data takes a breather in asia major stock benchmarks struggled for direction with the exception of a strong rally in japan the dollar was firmer while treasury yields oil and gold all weakened european shares are likely to struggle for momentum at fridays open after wall streets rally faded despite additional data suggesting that us inflation might be peaking us stocks slumped into the closing bell reversing an early morning surge that pushed the major indexes to their highest levels since early may after the july producerprice index fell 05 compared with expectations for a 02 rise some analysts are urging caution as rising housing costs could keep core inflation elevated even as a drop in oil prices and other commodities has helped to reduce inflation expectations our view is that this is a rally that really deserves a lot of scrutiny because when we think about what has happened since the midjune low the market outlook hasnt really changed said bny mellon investment management historically the fed delivers more hikes than the market anticipates and this is clearly a hiking cycle that is far from over markets are rallying on hopes the fed will pivot away from steep rate increases but a more dovish approach could lead to higher inflation and potentially to a more significant recession in 2023 guild investment management said guild sees inflation sticking at 5 to 6 which is higher than the feds target it sees discrepancies in labor data indicating the economy isnt as strong as july payrolls indicated guild said that company estimates for secondhalf and 2023 earnings need to decline further andas that happens the current rally will be challenged the us economy is experiencing a healthy deceleration not a recession goldman sachs said after looking into historical patterns of revisions of data used to guide monetary policy we find that the initial estimates of payrolls household employment and consumption growth at the start of recessions tend to be revised down even if current employment and consumption figures were revised down by the average amount at the start of recessions most indicators that are used to determine whether the economy is in a recession would still suggest that economic activity is expanding the dollar was slightly higher in asia against a basket of currencies but may weaken again as fed pivot bets grow analysts said if the fed meets market expectations to raise rates by only 50 basis points in september this will likely mark the peak of its aggressive rateincrease cycle according to cmc markets however other central banks may keep pace on tightening especially the european central bank which appears to have just begun its aggressive rateincrease cycle and which may cause further dollar weakness td securities said the euro could fall to parity against the dollar again over the coming month after receiving a boost from wednesdays lowerthanforecast us cpi data us inflation may have peaked but td said risk assets arent out of the woods yet suggesting it could be a bit more time to expect a persistent positive boost in growth expectations and financial conditions the dollars safehaven status means it may benefit from the weak global growth outlook td has advised selling eurusd targeting 10000 and placing a stop loss at 10550 treasurys gained in asia reversing some of thursdays steep losses as investors continue to weigh the latest signs of easing us inflation investors are now back to pricing in a softer 50basis point interest rate increase by the fed next month however deutsche bank economists said that despite the batch of goldilocks data fed officials could still turn out more hawkish than markets expect markets are pricing in a 595 probability that the fed will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points to a range between 275 and 3 at its sept 2021 meeting the central bank is mostly expected to lift borrowing costs to at least a range of 35 to 375 by march according to fed funds futures traders oil eased lower having settled at more than 2 on thursday oanda said prices are likely to remain supported above the 9000bbl level as demand is expected to remain strong on easing recession fears wti is back above 90 but that could change if we see progress on the iran nuclear deal its seen plenty of support around 8788 over the last month though as the tight market continues to keep the price very elevated oanda said gold futures extended their recent retreat but have managed to hold above 1800 goldman sachs expects trading to remain rangebound as investors continue to weigh worries over economic growth while watching for shifts in the feds rate policy kitcocom said bulls next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at 1850 while also pegging the next nearterm downside price objective at 168630 copper also stalled but is likely to be supported by positive sentiment on signs of a peak in us inflation while ironore futures were dented by the mild dollar strength cmc markets said metals losses may be limited however due to optimism over chinas economic recovery and other factors such as faded recession fears us home prices jumped to record high in second quarter home prices continued to climb across nearly all the us in the second quarter when buyer demand started to fade due to higher mortgage rates but still exceeded the housing markets unusually low supply the median sales price was higher in the quarter compared with a year ago for 184 of the 185 metro areas tracked the national association of realtors said thursday the only metro area to post a decline was trenton nj where median prices fell 07 nar said berlineuropean union diplomats trying to break a deadlock in talks over an iran nuclear accord have proposed a significant new concession to tehran aimed at speedily ending a un investigation into the islamic republics past atomic activities a key sticking point in 16monthold talks to revive the 2015 deal which put limits on irans nuclear programs in exchange for sanctions relief has been a probe by the international atomic energy agency into undeclared nuclear material found in iran in 2019 chinas deflating property bubble is imperiling the worlds secondlargest economy with effects that could ripple for years home prices are dropping in many cities after a long period of increases data from chinese realestate developers and official statistics show sales of apartments nationwide by the countrys largest developers have slumped annually for 13 consecutive months according to industrydata provider china real estate information corp washingtonlegislation to speed the approval process for energy infrastructure projects is facing political headwinds including from republicans who are skeptical of assurances it will help the fossilfuel industry and dont like how it was tied to the taxandclimate bill passed by senate democrats sen joe manchin d wva negotiated the deal as companion legislation to the climate bill dubbed the inflation reduction act saying it would include measures to reduce yearslong delays common in permitting both cleanenergy and fossilfuel infrastructure especially pipelines german telecommunications giant deutsche telekom ag reiterated plans to build its stake in tmobile us inc and said it is nearing majority ownership of the uss secondlargest wireless carrier by customers deutsche telekom has been looking to retake a majority stake in tmobile since the units 2020 merger with sprint which softbank group corp previously controlled the german company already has majority voting power in the us wireless carrier shell working to fix leak that halted gulf of mexico oil output shell said thursday it halted activity at several of its offshore oil production platforms in the gulf of mexico due to leaky pipelines but said it expects to have the pipelines fixed by friday shell can confirm that the mars and amberjack pipelines have been shutin due to a flange leak at the fourchon booster station it said in an emailed statement noting about two barrels of oil leaked and they have been contained the fourchon station is on land along the louisiana coast 0600uk 2q first quarterly estimate of gdp