jason schenker joins us now you are well praised for join us  wellplaced to join us take us through the enormous amount of dislocation still potentially to be played out how are you viewing this   the big situation is what  s the backdrop to all those things  we already have high metals prices for oil we have seen inventories fall rapidly demand is coming back as covid cases receipt in the united states we are ramping up for the summer driving season the biggest seasonal source of oil demand in the world all the demand signals for metals for oil they are all on the upside this can constrict supply and have other impacts that further threatened to keep prices elevated or send them higher haidi does this really threaten the risk of a messy landing when it comes to authorities and centralbank policy makers trying to navigate out of a complicated postpandemic situation   absolutely there is three different ways to think about it what  s the situation on russia yesterday evening with the collapse of the ruble there is a chance we could see something that looks like hyperinflation even though the central banks raise rates a lot that might not be enough to keep the ruble from getting pummeled further in the euro zone there are downside risks to the economy but upside risks that means there is a stagflation risk in the euro zone even if they don  t tighten rates we could see growth slow and energy prices rise the united states is more isolated because of the geographic distance we have growth elation coming on right now a strong jobs number on friday a strong economy last year strongest growth for the year since 1984 even though we have the strongest cpi yearonyear since february 1982 behind inflation is a function of strong growth shery we have seen a rally in some currencies like the us dollar or japanese yen where are we headed   i think the dollar is going to remain a flight to liquidity not so much quality if we see those stagflation risks in europe that is one thing where the euro will likely go lower the dollar go higher especially in the next quarter the ruble could remain under pressure as long as this goes on there is a lot of economic force being brought to bear by nato countries by other countries outside nato trying to pressure russia to come back to the negotiating table and start the war shery you were calling the russian ruble looking like the russian rubble how big will the pain be for russia   when these things start it can get hit even harder going forward especially in the short term we think about being disconnected from the banking system what does russia have i guess you are going to be trading barter with ingot of aluminum and oil and gas provided you are allowed to sell those right now sanctions on oil and gas have been held back that could if this continues to get worse if they take out more of what they were doing you could see more pressure and russia getting cut off as well haidi if energy is on the table as being a sanctions target where do you see oil prices going from here   in the shortterm oil prices going quite a bit higher natural gas prices in europe could go up significantly that  s important because we think about when up the big areas where europe has been pushing is in climate change green energy sustainability a lot of that has been dependent on russian natural gas when you burn russian natural gas there is a 50 reduction in co2 without that there is a problem countries are dependent on natural gas not just to get through the winter but also for power shery ukraine nicknamed the breadbasket of europe where do you see the biggest impact in the commodities space   this time of year there is not much harvesting going on so right now that is not necessarily as critical if we see this conflict last for weeks or months that could affect harvest later in the year could affect flows of grain commodities there is not a lot of downside risk for commodities unless everyone comes back to the table and we can find some peaceful resolution the longer it continues the