valuations are almost as stretched as at the 2022 bullmarket high the us stock markets valuation is approaching the lofty levels seen at the bull market top in early 2022 thats the unmistakable message of my monthly review of eight valuation models that have superior track records forecasting the us markets subsequent returns though the theoretical approaches represented by the eight are distinct they nevertheless tell a similar story about the us market right now this wide range of theoretical approaches is crucial because its possible to find fault with any of the indicators individually using pricebook and qratios for example suffers from the inadequate gaap accounting of intangible assets looking at the dividend yield doesnt reflect the growing preference of corporations to return cash to shareholders via share repurchases rather than dividends and so on to wriggle out from underneath the bearish message of all eight indicators however the bulls would have to show that each of those indicators is defective while thats always possible its a much more difficult argument to make  and far less plausible the chart below compares the sp 500s current valuation with what prevailed at the bull markets top in early january 2022 the columns in the chart report the percentage of past months in which valuations were lower so higher columns indicate higher relative valuations regardless of whether the comparison period extends back to 2000 or 1970 or 1950 the message is the same us stocks currently are almost as overvalued as they were at the top of the bull market thats discouraging since bear markets are supposed to reduce valuations by enough that the next bull market rests on a more solid foundation  and so has further to run to the upside than the previous one but this most recent bear market was different were not even back to where the bull market stood at its early2022 top and yet todays sp 500 valuation is nearly as stretched perhaps the only solace the bulls can find among these valuation indicators is that they tell us little about the markets shortterm direction valuations predictive ability exists at a much longer horizon  five to 10 years in fact so its entirely possible that stocks in coming months can continue rising despite market overvaluation but if they do the sp 500 will be resting on an even flimsier foundation than it is already mark hulbert is a regular contributor to marketwatch his hulbert ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited he can be reached at markhulbertratingscom also read stocks are on a seemingly unstoppable hot streak but this bondmarket tipping point could see it end in a hurry plushow much do you believe in this market your gut feeling matters more than the stocks and bonds you like this content was created by marketwatch which is operated by dow jones  co marketwatch is published independently from dow jones newswires and the wall street journal