does five point four come from word for word by the way and arranged now a four and a half to two for seven five correct so once every three months each fomc federal open market committee participant needs to submit essentially a forecast of what we think optimal monetary policy will be and how the economy will respond and its a tough thing once every three months we have to write something down and we have a lot im sure susan does this with her colleagues a lot of deliberation with my economists at the minneapolis fed on what do we think the underlying trends are for inflation how responsive do we think the economy is going to be to our rate hikes how long does monetary policy take to work its way through the economy so theres a lot of judgment and art in addition to attempts at science to try to put down something and basically last year i concluded and i think many of my colleagues concluded that the traditional economic models that we rely on to understand inflationary dynamics have really failed in the reopening of the economy we did not see to be blunt we did not see the giant inflation coming and we did not expect it to last as long as it did as you might recall many of us said we thought it would be transitory but what we ended up having is not does not feel like transitory so once i concluded that hey these models are not working then how do we start to make decisions how do you make decisions if your fundamental tool is not working well we have to let the inflation guide us and its raising rates aggressively to try to get real interest rates positive its unlikely that negative real interest rates would be restraining the economy we need to get real positive interest rates across the yield curve get there as fast as we can and then watch inflation and see how inflation responds and so far headline inflation has come down theres oil and food prices in many cases have come down core inflation is come down because goods prices have fallen but the services side of the economy is still hot and we know housing inflation is a big part of that but we can actually analyze and forecast housing pretty well if you look at releases that get signed it takes a year or two for them to work their way through that the official inflation statistics so if you strip out housing youre left with this part of the economy called core services ex housing think about the services economy the wages that people are paying and people are earning we havent seen any movement there and so there are some hopeful signs but theres not yet much evidence in my judgment that the rate hikes that weve done so far are having much effect on the labor market and we need to bring the labor market into balance so that tells me we need to do more how much more i dont know for sure