what kind of damage is this latest move going to do if passed as envisioned good morning im not sure the big damage but if it is passed it certainly threatens regulators it threatens to things is right and threatens or the medium term the supply always be available and responding as fast as we just have seen a few months ago when suddenly from zero energy it was queues of tankers lining up getting in europe because of high prices and high price volatility despite it and secondly and thats probably more interesting it threatens a degree of financial instability because gas prices in europe are traded through markets and to price cac has provisions in it which expense or rts markets over the counter trade from from from the price gap and so what is threatening to happen is that the activity of trading gas moves from organized public accessible transparent markets into the rts world that has been a focus point of the ecb which was warning actually just a few days ago that this may create financial instability do you expect an emergency meeting from opec plus kristoff before february 1 given the anxiety im gonna call it that in both the supply and the demand side of the equation i dont think they will do this in a very sort of public emergency meeting fashion but they clearly the phone lines must be glowing i mean there is a change in our markets everywhere with consuming nations intervening big time not only with the price cut but also as you mentioned with the spro really so suddenly the us government is becoming the big oil trader and i think opaque and opaque process always seen it as sort of they are wrong to manipulate the supplies and now all of a sudden thats done by our prices by the g7 and the eu and then directly we are the spro renaissance and repurchases by the us and that certainly will be something which will be plus try to prevent i remember about three weeks ago or so rbc put out a note and they were saying that the lower prices in the market were due to air pockets and liquidity specifically around brent crude for example i wonder what it is youre seeing or what youre hearing as well about what did that is still the case so what are the price we have today in the paper market actually reflects the dynamics in the physical market it does and it did for a long time but you have to take this paper profits with a grain of salt because there are two things there is a long term trend determined by fundamentals and then there is short term volatility around it and what we have seen for months and months now is that this trend essentially is downward downward trending so markets are left alone that tend to come down from these spikes of hundred twenty where they used to be and then some activity takes place like this two million announced cac before peak plus a few votes back and then all of a sudden prices jump up but when you look more closely the trend lines remain somewhat volatility around it and the reason for that downward trend is good old fundamentals this by all accounts and more than enough oil in the market to guarantee excess supply for the next six months or or even longer then there is something else which could disturb this balance of accelerated a little bit that is to the lay according to the latest reports of the american so not the iea but in america there is an unaccounted number of barrels full which has increased quite dramatically and the suspicions of course of the markets that these are russian barrels or that they are barriers from other sanctioned places like iran or venezuela and that has contributed to the price decreases which we have seen in recent days maybe just as much as then i mean i was i was going gonna i was going to follow up on that just in terms of getting an understanding of whats going to happen with russian barrels in 2023 as sanctions and the price cap buy what do you suspect is the trajectory for the number well this price cut in respect to russian production is a little bit like having your cake and eating tool by the g7 by the european union he had 10 plus two as you know to continue russian production on the market to avoid price increases for consumers while cutting russian revenues by cutting prices for russian products and sort of harm russia initially when the war first started the clear to one of the clear targets of sanctions and oil against russia was so damaged volumes coming out of russia and by lowering production the hope was that this a longer term this would damage russian feels because goes serious russian fields are very different from the fields in the middle east in the sense that they have a multitude tens of thousands literally of small there so if you drive down production as it happened after the collapse of the soviet union it takes forever and a huge amount of capital investment and of technology to bring production levels back up so you can actually harm that was part of the hope and that has disappeared now in this latest round which tries to take it to christoph a closing question here just briefly perhaps on the call for oil prices as we kind of prepare for 2023 goldman sachs you know theyre looking at one hundred and five dollars a barrel theyre broadly bullish on commodities whats the house view for you goldman has been bullish schwartz since anyone can remember and wasnt right in the last trial one has to say i do think that prices can be forecast also in the big fundamental sense and that points towards 80 or below rather than towards hundred and ten and above now what happens in between and of course in this kind of world which is what you call a crisis is is this a thing which you can only forecast months by months if at all