thursday market open the new month begins with stocks on the rise after the united states edged one step closer to moving past the debt ceiling debate last night the house of representatives passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling by a strong bipartisan vote of 314–117 the senate is expected to begin consideration of the bill today one thing to keep in mind is that the timeline is very tight because any single senator can use a variety of procedural maneuvers to delay consideration of the bill however the senate is reportedly working to expedite the process a final vote is possible as soon as tomorrow once the senate passes the bill the president will sign it into law treasury can begin borrowing again and the debt ceiling issue will be off the table until mid2025 bottom line congress is on track to pass the bill before the default date for more schwab insight on the debt ceiling debate the voting process and potential market reaction read our latest government policy analysis volatility eased this morning but it’s worth watching as the market remains focused on the legislative process in washington moving on friday’s may nonfarm payrolls report due out an hour before the opening bell could provide a distraction from all the debt ceiling headlines the jobs data will tell investors more about the economy’s health and provide clues into the federal reserve’s next move analysts forecast healthy jobs growth of nearly 200000 but believe wage growth might have moderated from april tomorrow’s report comes after wednesday’s april job openings data flashed hotter than analysts had expected despite yesterday’s job openings data the market’s now building in higher odds of a fed rate pause later this month this represents a reversal from earlier this week when futures trading indicated a better than 60 chance of a 25basispoint rate hike the sentiment change came after fed governor philip jefferson hinted in a speech that the fed is considering leaving rates alone at its june meeting to assess the impact of all the hikes so far according to media reports   the 10year treasury note yield tnx edged up 2 basis points to 365   the us dollar index dxy slipped to 10404 but remains near twomonth highs   wti crude oil cl rose slightly to 6780 per barrel but remains near fourweek lows despite info tech sector weakness on wednesday the techfocused nasdaq 100® ndx had a very solid month of may rising more than 7 that easily outpaced the sp 500® index spx which gained just a fraction of a percent during the month a riskoff sentiment took hold yesterday sending tech and energy shares lower while “defensive” sectors like health care and utilities topped the leaderboard this might have reflected monthend profit taking and people exiting the market ahead of the debt ceiling vote it also shows a little air coming out of the artificial intelligence ai trade following last week’s massive rally career path data and earnings so far this week don’t hold a candle to friday’s 830 am et may jobs report here’s what wall street analysts expect according to briefingcom if headline jobs growth is near the expected 190000 that would be well below the 2023 monthly average of 284500 only the march report with 165000 jobs created was lower look for possible revisions to march and april in the may report the government made significant downward revisions to previous reports last time out another stat to watch is labor force participation—which was steady at 626 in april and recently clawed back to prepandemic levels rising participation hints at less competition to find workers in the long run that might temper inflationary wage growth the fed is likely watching wages closely if tomorrow’s report shows higherthanexpected wages watch the ratesensitive 2year treasury note for a possible reaction spring slowdown the may chicago purchasing managers index chicago pmi laid an egg yesterday with a headline number of 404 down from 486 in april and well below expectations anything below 50 is considered contraction this raises new questions about us manufacturing health ahead of today’s may ism manufacturing index due soon after the open it’s been in contraction territory below 50 going back to last october analysts expect that to remain the case projecting a headline of 47 down from 471 in april trading economics says for a change this morning’s jobs data came in just as expected weekly initial jobless claims of 232000 was just 1000 under wall street’s consensus according to briefingcom the number is in the middle range of recent reports and probably isn’t especially marketmoving the adp employment change for may also came out today at 278000 however government data and the adp data haven’t been tightly correlated the last few years across the pacific the caixin china general manufacturing pmi unexpectedly rose to 509 in may 2023 from 495 in april output rose the most in 11 months new order growth was at 2 yearhigh and foreign sales continued to increase trading economics reports over in europe core inflation in may slowed more than expected to 53 but remained well above the european central bank’s ecb 2 goal shares of cloudbased software maker salesforce crm fell in premarket trading after the company posted a betterthanexpected quarter but faced higher costs and didn’t raise its fullyear revenue outlook a company executive told barron’s that salesforce continues to see difficult macro conditions quarterly reporting moves along this afternoon with expected results from semiconductor maker broadcom avgo shares went on a tear last month amid excitement over the company’s orders from major tech firms like apple aapl and meta platforms meta in its last earnings report broadcom easily beat wall street analysts’ forecasts and delivered betterthanexpected guidance keep an eye on any updated guidance in the wake of broadcom’s recent deals the market punished salesforce for not being more optimistic in its outlook chances of a rate pause at the june meeting stand at 70 as of this morning according to the cme fedwatch tool that’s up from 48 a week ago as noted above chances of a pause gained traction following fed governor jefferson’s speech yesterday in addition philadelphia federal reserve president patrick harker suggested the fed might “skip” a rate increase but implied it could tighten rates more in future meetings if necessary with less than two weeks until the decision it’s unusual to see this kind of quick reversal in the market’s expectations it still feels like the pendulum could keep swinging perhaps right up until the week of the meeting especially considering the jobs report tomorrow and the may consumer price index cpi report due the very day the federal open market committee fomc begins its june 13–14 meeting ideas to mull as you trade or invest outlook alert on a troubling note 63 sp 500 companies have delivered negative q2 guidance versus 41 that posted positive guidance according to factset the spx had a forward priceearnings pe ratio of just under 18 at the end of last week—below the fiveyear average but above the 10year average of 173 in the long run earnings tend to drive stock prices and if earnings don’t grow it’s hard to have a prolonged rally on wall street when the pe is already elevated analysts predict a 63 yearoveryear drop in q2 earnings per share factset says and a 13 rise for the full year working for a living the april job openings and labor turnover survey jolts report didn’t deliver what bullish investors had hoped the number of openings rose to 101 million up about 358000 from a month earlier it was also stronger than the 95 million openings analysts expected the jolts number suggests the labor market remains strong perhaps stronger than the fed would prefer as it continues efforts to further tamp down inflation in the long run all this competition for workers could force companies to offer higher wages and then perhaps raise prices labor continues to be the center of the us inflation equation now that goods price growth has slowed foreign affairs the dollar reached new 2½month highs wednesday after both europe and china released disappointing economic data this could reflect ideas that nonus central banks might push pause on rate increases which could lower the value of nonus currencies versus the greenback for the same reason it’s interesting to see us treasury yields sink this week though overseas data may only be a small reason for that treasury yields came under pressure from soft us data and ideas that risk of a us default was off the table however if the slide in us treasury yields continues it could provide clues into global money flows when foreign economies slump overseas investors often put cash into the dollar and us fixed income believing that the us economy is the best house on a bad block current 16year highs in us interest rates are more potential pollen if you’re an overseas investor sniffing for yield it’s not a trend yet but if it becomes one this could mean better borrowing conditions for us companies and consumers as rates fall amid the influx of foreign cash june 7 april trade balance and april consumer credit and expected earnings from campbell soup cpb this post contains sponsored advertising content this content is for informational purposes only and not intended to be investing advice