march 3  welcome to the home for realtime coverage of markets brought to you by reuters reporters you can share your thoughts with us at marketsresearchthomsonreuterscom wall street struggled for direction for much of thursdays session as the ukraine crisis kept investors on edge until afternoon weakness proved to be too much and ultimately the three main indexes all closed in the red chips sox and fangs nyfang were among underperformers on the day of note seven of the 11 major sp 500 spx sectors advanced for the session with defensive groups showing the biggest gains however losses were concentrated in the four sectors that account for around 60 of the benchmark indexs total market cap the united states on thursday imposed fresh sanctions against russian oligarchs including on those active in the oil and real estate sectors as washington takes aim at those close to russian president vladimir putin in response to moscows invasion of ukraine read more as for crude oil sellers won the day on thursday on hopes the united states and iran will agree soon on a nuclear deal that could add barrels to a tight global market nymex crude futures hit 11657 before reversing back below 110 closing down around 2 read more the focus now turns to the us february jobs report due friday current expectations call for 400k nonfarm jobs a 39 unemployment rate and average hourly earnings rising 05 monthovermonth read more goldman sachs is raising their 2022 sp 500 dividend forecast to 67 per share representing 10 yearoveryear growth from 8 and a payout ratio of 30 according to a goldman research  portfolio strategy note from a team headed by david kostin investors who are confident in sp 500 fundamental growth but are worried over equity valuation risks should consider owning dividend futures kostin notes that the sp 500 pe multiple has been reined in by 13 this year from 22x to 19x and a further rise in interest rates and growth uncertainty represent risks for further contraction meanwhile kostin also says that historically dividends have outperformed equity shares during periods of elevated inflation since 1940 real equity returns have turned negative when headline cpi inflation exceeded 5 which describes both the recent environment and our economists outlook for much of 2022 real dividend growth has also been negative or flat on average on an absolute basis in periods of high inflation but it has far outpaced real equity returns kostin adds that high dividend yield and high dividend growth stocks also typically outperform during periods of high inflation and currently trade at attractive valuations goldman sachs high dividend growth basket identifies companies with a blend of strong dividend growth and high dividend yields as of march 1 new constituents added to the basket included whirlpool  pioneer natural resources pxdn and nrg energy nrgn among others shares in major us banks are tumbling on thursday as the us treasury yield curve flattens and global economic uncertainty stemming from the russiaukraine war cast a damper on the outlook for the sector the sp 500 banks index spxbk is last down 10 after earlier falling as much as 139 from its record closing high reached on jan 12 in 2021 the bank index rose 32 yeartodate it is down 42 jpmorgan chase  co jpmn is down 09 while bank of america corp bacn is off 07 goldman sachs group inc gsn is down 08 and wells fargo  co is dropping 1 citigroup inc cn the biggest loser among major us banks is last down 32 at 5763 after it laid out profitability targets on wednesday that one brokerage said pointed to a glacial pace of progress at the bank a closely watched part of the yield curve measuring the gap between yields on 2year and 10year treasury notes  is last at 3220 bps a day after hitting 3128 its lowest point since april 2020 the low so far for thursday is 3176 a flatter yield curve squeezes banks profitability as they borrow at relatively higher rates in the short term while lending at relatively lower rates in the longer term david wagner portfolio manager at aptus capital advisors notes that bank stock moves were now tied to the 210 yield curve decline whereas their gains in 2021 and early 2022 were tied to 10year yield increases as investors bet fed tightening and economic growth would usher in a period of solid profits for banks the market had priced in too heavy expectations for banks and the near term profitability environment investors believed that the yield curve will continue to slope higher said wagner but with global growth concerns related to geopolitics and surging oil prices this confidence has been battered given high levels of market volatility wagner now says that bank stocks have already seen their rally over the last year and a half pricing in a perfect environment for them from a profitability standpoint now the markets really starting to digest that the more profitable environment for the banks may not play out in the near term it may take the long term play to play that out he said i do not have a bullish outlook for banks in the near term im underweight banks theyve already risen too much market participants were served a veritable data gumbo on thursday spiced up with omicron volatility and thickened by a belligerently tight labor market all of which provide a patchwork prelude to tomorrows hotlyanticipated jobs report the number of us workers filing firsttime applications for unemployment benefits usjobeci dropped more than expected last week to 215000 read more the reading falls near the low end of the range considered indicative of healthy labor market churn and likely reflects increased reluctance on the part of employers to hand out pink slips amid a worker drought claims are headed back to the preomicron lows writes ian shepherdson chief economist at pantheon macroeconomics demand for discretionary services is rebounding strongly easing the pressure on businesses hit hard by people’s retreat from social activity when the variant emerged but shepherdson is quick to remind us that last weeks jobless claims data falls outside the survey period for the labor departments february jobs report expected on friday these data tell us nothing about tomorrows payroll report but the renewed downward trend augurs well for march he says ongoing claims usjobneci reported on a oneweek lag essentially held steady at 1476 million well below the 17 million prepandemic level further reflecting the tight labor market layoffs announced by american companies uschaleci dropped by 20 in february to 15245 while at the same time unveiling plans to hire 215127 workers the highest february total on record according to executive outplacement firm challenger gray  christmas cgc two months into 2022 yeartodate planned layoffs are down a whopping 89 the latest numbers give more evidence that job creation is strong and employers continue to hold fast to their workforces writes andrew challenger senior vice president at cgc the rising quit rate is forcing companies to offer better pay and benefits and more flexibility challenger adds the issue for employers at the moment is finding and keeping staff so far this year the sectors seeing the most job cuts are healthcare government and warehousing vaccine refuseniks accounted for over one fifth of the layoffs in the first two months of 2022 expanding shepherdson said a rebound in discretionary services activity in the services sector unexpectedly decelerated last month with employment dipping into contraction territory providing the days most disappointing data institute for supply managements ism nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index pmi usnpmieci delivered a reading of 565 a 34 point slide in defiance of the 11 point gain forecast by economists read more new orders and business activity declined while the worrisome prices paid subindex rose to 831 suggesting that input costs  and by association inflation  have yet to reach the summit while outpointing that the index has registered expansion in all but two of the last 145 months anthony nieves chair of isms services business surveys committee explains februarys slowdown respondents continue to be impacted by supply chain disruptions capacity constraints inflation logistical challenges and labor shortages nieves writes these conditions have affected the ability of panelists’ businesses to meet demand leading to a cooling in business activity and economic growth remarks from the surveys respondents are littered with phrases such as supply chain challenges continue and staffing shortages and price increases with no notice supporting nieves conclusions global financial information firm his markit also offered its take on services pmi usmpsfeci which fell into rare lockstep with ism delivering 565 print ism and markit pmi indexes differ in the weight they allocated to their components such as new orders employment etc the graphic below illustrates the disparity between the dueling pmis next factory orders usfordeci jumped by 14 in january double both the consensus estimate and decembers upwardly revised increase read more new orders of core capital goods  which excludes aircraft and defense items and is considered a barometer of business expenditure intentions was revised higher by the commerce department to 1 the graphic below charts factory orders against isms manufacturing pmi which posted february results on tuesday finally in more ancient news the commerce department revised its fourth quarter labor costs uslcaeci and productivity usproreci data the labor costs were bumped up to 09 from 03 while the productivity revision came in at 66 just a hair lower than originally reported unit labor costs were revised up modestly but remained quite tame at the end of last year as productivity acted as a buffer against rising compensation says lydia boussour lead us economist at oxford economics productivity data continue to be heavily influenced by the pandemic but  continued strong investment in technology greater business dynamism faster technology adoption and lasting remote work will power abovetrend productivity growth in the postcovid era wall street seesawed in morning trading but the sp 500 spx is now in negative territory chips sox and consumer discretionary splrcd are among the sessions biggest losers defensive groups are outperforming and value ivx is being favored over growth igx us stocks mixed and modest in early trade 1012 est1512 gmt us stock indexes are mixed with just modest changes early on thursday after federal reserve chair jerome powell pointed to a cautious tightening on wednesday amid the ukraine crisis  and ahead of fridays release of february jobs data read more indeed a wait and see mindset appears to have suddenly gripped markets as investors search for the next catalyst with this defensive groups including utilities splrcu and staples splrcs are among the stronger sectors under the surface transports djt are among outperformers while chips sox and small caps rut are on the weaker side here is where markets stand in early trade nasdaq composite can it rise to the challenge 0900 est1400 gmt a number of measures of the nasdaq composites ixic internal condition continue to show improvement that said there is still work to do to add confidence in a more enduring upside turn the nasdaq new highnew low nhnl index ticked higher for a fourthstraight day on wednesday ending at 146 this put it right on its descending 10day moving average dma though still shy of its 222 february 11 reaction high read more another measure the nasdaq daily advancedecline ad line also ticked up on wednesday in the wake of a severe ninemonth divergence the ad line had already once again broken below its 30dma as the composite was peaking in november 2021 since then the 30dma has been capping ad line strength leading to new lows and in a testament to the recent broad nasdaq weakness on february 23 the ad line hit its lowest level since early 2016 however with its improvement since february 23 the ad line appears poised to once again to clear the moving average since it broke sharply lower in early january the nasdaq composite itself has also been hindered by its descending 30dma which ended wednesday at around 13865 traders will be watching to see if the composite and the ad line can both reclaim their 30day hurdles such a turn may confirm the significance of last weeks lows for thursdays live markets posts prior to 0900 est1400 gmt  click here read more terence gabriel is a reuters market analyst the views expressed are his own