we got some big numbers this morning that are important weve got the employment cost index coming in a little bit lighter than anticipated and down from the prior quarter it comes in at 1 down from 12 in the first quarter which would be good news for the fed well get the breakdown on that and see what the wage component was in just a moment personal income rises 310 thats a little less than last months 410 and down from the 510 to half a percent that was anticipated actually the may number was revised up to half a percent so a slowing there but we did see that in the overall gdp numbers spending comes in at as i said half a percent real personal spending at 410 so not a huge inflation effect and then those pc numbers that everybody from lisa to jay powell are watching the deflator comes in the headline number comes in at 210 of a percent thats a little bit faster than last month but this was what was forecast and so on a year over year basis headline pc is 3 the core is a 2 210 gain so that comes in at 41 and thats lower than anticipated and certainly lower than 46 last month so lisa weve got basically the same story weve had for much of this week the data come in in line with what the fed wants you know not all perfect but better than it has been mike when im looking through these numbers it does seem to confirm this goldilocks scenario of slowing growth slowing inflation but still robust consumer spending how reliable how significant is this data showing an upside surprise of personal spending even as incomes fall off just a touch well its kind of the story weve been seeing it is interesting that we get a little bit of an upside surprise in personal spending because the gdp numbers suggested consumer spending had fallen off so maybe that was weakness in april and may and june comes in better which sets you up for a little bit better spending going into this third quarter and obviously weve got back to school coming up which will be an important measure for retailers the other numbers that come in better than expected theyre not going to have a huge impact right now because we get a lot of data between now and the next fed meeting but it does show that things are going in the right direction and so maybe jay powell gets the board of governors together and then they all go out for happy hour today or so youve been digging out of the numbers what do you see yeah lets look under the hood a couple of things that jonathan was talking about the eci for wages goes down to a 1 gain from a 12 gain in the fourth quarter and that would be considered reasonably good news but when you look under the personal income figures wages went up 610 of a percent in the month of june and that is up from a half percent it is actually the highest increase since january so we have to sort of contrasting views of what wage pressures are doing at the moment and john mentioned as we do every time we get an inflation figure the super core which is jay powell favorite thing core services ex housing comes in at a 210 gain 222 if you want to round it out to three figures and that puts it at a 41 41 increase for the year which is going to be your lowest since basically last august so things moving in the super core direction take out housing out of the equation and services for the pc we like the cpi are down but the wage numbers still healthy and that suggests consumers can still keep spending the question is will the fed see that as inflationary