are we on the brink of a mounts up or a meltdown i think were on a brink of a sideways market i dont think that id like to see broader participation from the rest of the market you certainly have continue to see big tech continue to hang in there but i think more or less markets are pricing in this softest landing right this this idea that the economy can avoid a recession admits higher rates a tighter banking conditions but i think that i struggle with so the fundamental story here i still think earnings off the earnings outlook still looks too optimistic from our viewpoint and when i think about fundamentals and where the rate markets are currently pricing in their expectations for fed policy you know i struggle with the current valuation on the market as well obviously the debt ceiling adds another layer of uncertainty and so i think were in store for a pretty sideways market now this doesnt mean that big tech can continue to rally i think that story continues to be much more of a micro story right recognizing that tech continues to be a fairly profitable surprising on earnings generally speaking and so that suggests you know maybe theres still a bit of legs but as i look out maybe six to 12 months i think fundamentally and maybe the valuation component becomes a little bit more challenging well jordan right now ive told my story it makes up a major chunk and the s  p 500 can you really bet against that so look from a price standpoint right when when when tech sneezes the rest of the market is going to catch a cold its just because of the sheer weight but again we like to see when you look at the relative performance of the equal weight index relative to the s  p 500 more broadly market cap weighted that severely underperform and that that tends to for me i struggle with the durability of a broad sustainable rally and again i think that this will start to move towards a more macro story as you get further potential less at least less tightening from from the fed more cautious potentially front from the fed and that may be signaling a more severe recession and im particularly worried about some of the stresses and stresses in the regional banking sector and that broadening out to the broader economy leading into a recession remember tech may be leaning a bit more quality these days but its still cyclical right and so if you get that recession then again i think youll start to see some pressure in big tech talk to me about what you think the relationship should be between whats developing in the bond market and equities right now and how you would characterize how its played out recently because right now my screen yields up stocks up is that going to change well its interesting the risk free market i look at that lets just look at the yield curve is signaling that recession right its signaling that economic slowdown and when you look at credit markets within the bond market theyre also more or less in the camp of a soft landing similarly with equities with the exception of bank spreads that have really gapped out you know the rest of the credit market still looks spreads still look fairly tight and so youre in this environment in which i think you know the risk free rate risk free markets are pricing in that recession risk assets are not theyre still pricing in that soft landing and it will be until we start to see some of the hard data come through that suggests that were that the economy is in fact weakening that that youll start to see that macro story take hold and i think youll youll see a bit of volatility choppiness in risk assets what we are seeing weakness as abroad now the surprise surprises out of europe actually some of the data out of china disappointing do you see any durable tailwinds in the rest of the world equity markets story that so many people got pulled up on coming into 23 so i guess my sort of out of consensus call is maybe some tactical upside to traditional energy and in oil prices here i think youre seeing domestic demand from domestic consumers coming from china a fairly weak and i think from that perspective china is going to go into its old its old playbook and start to build out some of the fiscal stimulus and boost some of its fixed asset investment to try to boost some of its gdp numbers over the next couple of quarters also i would if you look at sort of all peak plus theyve already announced some production cuts and when you look at economies like malaysia and nigeria for an example theyve been under producing relative to those production quotas already and that sets up a backdrop of lower degrees of inventories and the last point that would make is ive been somewhat surprised that the us did not take the opportunity to rebuild up the spro so we could be very well entering into a period in which demand sort of hangs in there but the supply side becomes a bit of a challenge and that could be a bit of a tailwind to oil prices