  let  s get some more views on that a partner in coceo at region atlantic private wealth joins us andy this fits in our theme with your views on the scenario we are now working with now that we know we have had a warning shock from fitch saying the likelihood of actual default is low as we know but really flagging some of the concerns about broader governance product fiscal planning and frameworks that perhaps need to be put in place before we get to this point in time you have really talked about this idea that markets have not been putting on the pressure is it important that we see these other pressure points now   i think markets are responding to this boy who cried wolf phenomenon they have seen this movie too many times before they have already seen the ending and they are not responding to it with a of ferocity a lot of volatility at least not yet i think the importance of what fitch has done is they said what everybody is thinking which is this constant agitation this constant drama of will be or won  t we pay our debts as they come due as a nation is a really important prague that important the market has not been delivering today   how are you positioning at the moment does this sort of change the trajectory in terms of what kind of deal we get what kind of spending cuts and up being the strings that are attached   i think in terms of what is likely to happen as far as a deal goes the deal itself is not likely to dramatically change the course of fiscal spending in washington the reason i don  t think it is likely to change is because everybody  s bargaining position is really weak so think back to 2011 we have a similar composition to 2011 a democrat in the white house narrow republican majority in the house of representatives a narrow democratic representative  in the senate and no one has leverage to get enough done it is when nobody has enough leverage that the debate gets more acrimonious what is likely to come out of this is some modest concession from both sides just to get is not to exceed that date which is drawing nearer and nearer one of the most important news items over the course of the past weeks is the idea we are not going to make it to june 15 when a lot of tax collections come in which leaves us a little time to hammer out a deal   remember what happened in 2011 it was interesting that when we had that debt crisis stocks plunged more after the debt ceiling was raised what is the risk here for equity in markets as we go towards x date and if we pass it   i think the real risk the market has been focused on inflationary risks over the course of the past 24 months with good reason we have an uncommon amount of inflation a peak since the 1980  s for cpi gains the risk of a debt ceiling or default the risk of the treasury not making payments is a profoundly inflationary risk in a way that could reverberate through the market ironically the way it is likely to with the most is by benefiting longerterm treasury bonds so the very same treasury that is in default on its promises may actually be a flight to safety still   which is kind of what we saw in 2011 that counter intuitive rally after the s  p downgraded the us credit rating do you see the us or do you expand and go beyond in other parts of the world where things are a little bit more stable   things are a little bit more stable but if we go back to 2011 an example and again ironically us assets tended to outperform not just in the immediate consequences of 2011 and that debt ceiling debate but for a number of years after that i think there were a number of reasons why which may or may not be repeated i see a fair amount of value intentionally in international assets but at the same time especially for a us based investor that presents a lot of risk because as that deflationary risk comes from a debt ceiling crisis it also could be beneficial to the us dollar   is japan a good beta play in that respect   japan is having its moment in the sun today it has had a very large market rally releasing levels that it last saw in the 1990  s japan  s leading companies are primarily in industry and that creates a risk that there is a lot of cyclical risk tied to being an investor in japanese equities i think what i would want to see is more confidence about the trajectory of global growth to be super bullish about the next stage of japanese stocks   andy always great to have