bond yields rose on thursday as calmer conditions prevailed in fixed income markets ahead of next week’s expected rate rise by the federal reserve with the federal reserve in purdah ahead of next week’s interest rate decision traders can concentrate more on data for clues to the central bank’s likely policy trajectory us economic updates set for release on thursday include the weekly initial jobless claims and the philadelphia fed manufacturing survey for june both at 830 am eastern the june existing home sales and leading economic indicators will be released at 10 am markets are pricing in a 998 probability that the fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 525 to 550 after its meeting on july 26 according to the cme fedwatch tool such certainty has helped the ice bofaml move index a gauge of expected treasury market volatility to trade at 107 near its lowest this year and well off the 200 level witnessed at the time of the us regional banking crisis in march the chances of a further 25 basis point hike to 55 to 575 in september is priced at 14 and in november at 29 the central bank is not expected to take its fed funds rate target back down to around 5 until april 2024 according to 30day fed funds futures the treasury will sell 17 billion of 10year tips at 1 pm what are analysts saying the economics team at bank of america have looked ahead to what they reckon fed chair jerome powell will say after hiking rates next week “we think the chair will deliver four main messages in the press conference first the committee will do what’s necessary to return inflation to 2 over time second in bringing inflation down the committee would prefer to avoid imposing undue harm to the economy slowing the pace of policy rate actions allows for fine tuning of the policy stance” said bank of america “third we think the chair will not rule out further action pointing to the june projections that indicated most members expected more than one hike before yearend would be appropriate this would align with the guidance in the fomc statement finally we don’t think the fed wants to be boxed in one way or another we expect powell to say that whether additional policy rate firming happens and when it happens will remain data dependent”