one person put it the jobs report was not strong enough to convince the doves are wrong that the fed should be done with rate hikes or was it weaken enough to convince the hawks more should be done what do you see for the markets in all of this   i think the job reporter was mixed but unemployment fell 35 in july it is still down wages were up 44 it is hard to imagine a 2 inflation number when wage inflation is up the fed has been saying they were looking for a little over a percent unemployment number in the fourth quarter and that does not seem likely based on the number they came out last week for me i dont we have seen the last of the rate hikes i think from a market perspective there is a number of signs there is a weakness to come i would be cautious and defensive there is not enough to suggest we have a recession with coming we have mixed economic data but we have strength in the consumer the labor market remains tight there is some negatives and some positives nothing that says recession but also nothing that says the fed should pause kathleen lets take a look at the bond market because we solve the big move up broke through the move up was it 409 got as high as 43 percent that seemed to unsettle stocks on many days where is that going to go shana that is something that should be concerning for equity investors the peak of 10 year yields in october when we saw the market bottom is 43 5 10 year yields and bond yields are in the 10th decile according to strategics they have done some great work there are seven years of rolling fiveyear data when yields get into the 10th decile the s  p performance forward is below average it is also if you think about the similarities to what we saw in a tober that might suggest there is downside in the market yield rising like this is typically negative for equities we are seeing rising volatility we have not seen in yield since the 1980s there is a lot to be concerned about these are signals that suggest their hard times coming in equities and there is is in equities i would be cautious right now haidi does that mean the real bear market bottom has yet to hit us shana that is the debate a lot of people thought over 2022 was the bear market bottom but there are things that typically happen on the bottom that never happened following that you saw financials broadly underperform you never saw a rebound in small caps we are back at the same place in terms of yield which suggests there is downside under the market if you look and see the russell 2000 and only recently broke out of 17 straight months of rolling negative performance typically that can be a good sign i have been watching small caps to see if there is any breakout but we are seeing change in leadership to energy and materials away from technology and consumer discretionary that is indicative may be a change in the way the market is trending in not in necessarily a positive way it is hard to imagine a scenario where we see continuing earnings growth when you have rising rates inflation and weakness in the economy in places like manufacturing nonmanufacturing was we there are things that have me concerned but nothing that screams recession haidi it is interesting we talk about the consumer is resilient you look at these specifics backtoschool spending for example report showing we could see that decline for the first time in a decade they are not insubstantial declines either shana no there is that we have seen rising consumer defaults but nothing really concerning we saw in november 2021 we hit an alltime low we have risen from there the low was 37 it has arisen to 72 the longterm historical average is over one and a half percent we are are nowhere near default rates that are concerning but they are rising so that is something to be of concern there is no fiscal stimulus there is a desire to pull liquidity from the system none of those things are positive for equities or earnings they are headwinds to those things and to the economy some of the leading indicators you definitely see a mess there is reason for concern nothing that screams recession now but definitely things that suggest this idea we are not going to have a recession at all is probably not true i could see that in early 2024 kathleen and you are not alone what do i do with my money move over into cash do i find the defensive stocks how do i handle this at least until early next year when you know if there is going to be a recession or not shana a lot of people are going to cash right now we have seen record flows into retail money market accounts the average money market account is yielding pre9 there is something to be said for that i am looking at stocks and positioning that will benefit from rising correlations between equity and fixed income which tends to happen when rates are rising i like my liquid alternatives i like my mrsk i like my etal i like my fmf those are three etfs i like in terms of stock ideas and sectors i like sectors that will benefit from scenarios where there is leslie the in the system should things like energy materials health care industrials some of my favorite names for onto those cap worries southern copper been he is one i have talked about a lot it was a 15 in the last month market multiple is i with the average there are a lot of tailwinds to the business in terms of the macro you look at a company like caterpillar caterpillar has a lot of correlation to rising rates it tends to outperform trading at a 12 market really good financials very stable business great management that is another company i really like in health care you have something like cigna that is a company that has been growing membership it has been making acquisitions great capital allocation strategy trading at a low multiple but have had going earnings for the last 12 months something worth considering those are the names im looking at things that will benefit from the liquidity being moved from the system