farouk i mean youve done the number crunching what do youforecast then in terms of where were likely to see the quickest transmission impact from the higher energy pricemorning yes seven months yes so its more than just the oil price weve weve had covid reopening effects with regionaldevelopments like expo and before world cup at the oil prices is a very important part of that there are three ways we thinkthat the oil price is going to affect the region one is through higher production and its quite a rare occurrence to have bothrising oil prices and rising production so countries where you have greater spare capacity like saudi arabia the uae those arecountries that youre going to see the biggest impact from the higher production aspect of rising oil prices at the moment andthen you also have greater fiscal space where you have higher oil revenues leading to significant easing in in the amount ofmoney that governments can spend across the region not not all governments are going to have this kind of fiscal space if welook at the boyfriend and the omanis they still have fiscal balance programs that they need to stick to and so wereprobably not going to see the benefit so much there from a growth perspective that you will see it in countries like saudiarabia uae qatar and so on and then finally i think high oil pricescan lead to an easing of financial conditions so you have these oil revenues coming in which means that governments across theregion arent going to be borrowing as much that leaves more space for the private sector to borrow and can be lessgovernment crowding out theyre going to be more liquidity in the domestic market and thats also going to help the localcorporate sector and to local stock exchanges and i think pretty much across the board were going to see that happeningfor all the countries in which for a good morning to you so a very bullishtailwind from oil weve just finished a conversation with rabobank about the headwind of higher rates the risk of higherrates and thats what the market is grappling with this morning globally how much of a headwind could higher us rates be tothis region were pricing in two rate hikes in 2022 on the dollar curve at the momentit is i think i think theres a couple of things to say about that in terms of external financing the headwind of higher ratesas you describe it is going to be largely mitigated by the fact that the external financing requirements of these countries iscoming down very significant because of high oil prices so yes if they were going up the market and looking to finance clearlythat would be less preferential rates than theyve had over the past couple of years with lower rates but theyre not going tobe financing nearly as much again not all countries are going to be equally impacted clearly there are still countries thatare going to need to come out so have big borrowing requirements going to need to come out to the market and thoseare the likes of the one in bahrain domestically clearly the the dcc countries follow the fed one for one so you are goingto see higher domestic rates that typically has a negative impact on credit growth but in the dcc on balance higher ratesactually are good for banks they result in higher margins and so youre going to see a boost to the local banking sectors fromhigher rates were going to take you to lebanon for a moment we had thetragic events over the weekend more violence in beirut and then of course some of the bonds are still trading at spreads aroundthe stress levels mean ten thousand seven hundred and seventy eight basis points you are beginning to look at a potentialramp out towards a recovery run me through how that could look like what that means for some of the financial assets we letthe recovery values in lebanon clearly before the violence that we saw a couple of days ago had and our view has been andremains that recovery ise contingent on the efforts made by the government with respect to reforms those reform efforts havebeen pretty weak in the past and there is a lot of pessimism out there you know this is a government that isnt able ourpolitical system that is able to produce reforms bogged down in sectarian sectarianismand so on and so forth we take a view that reform at this point may be a political survival sorry australia for politicalsurvival and that there may be very little choice and so we we tend to be a little bit more optimistic now i have to say thatthe events of the past few days have slightly dulled that optimism and we feel that the road ahead looks quite difficultso discussing recovery right now and the current uncertain environment seems a little bit futileit certainly is you deal with images and then you try to talk about economics and the value of the poem one of one of theimages that is very real is the value of the lebanese point now in the medium term you do see im going to use the words somekind of improvement stabilization you see the lebanese pound going to 8000 ill be out to the dollar in the medium termwhat is the medium term for iraq and again is that cold ultimately lets say stymied by what you see in front of you inreality the fate of the lebanese parliament is really a function ofwhether or not we can get some normalization back into the economy and we can hold the slide into the economic abyss nowthat is purely a political question the this or the resolutions for the economic crisis are and has been on the table for sometime there is a very clear roadmap to recovery economic recovery in lebanon and if that road map is followed then wethink the pound stands to benefit from that we think theres been a massive overshoot in terms of devaluation in the lebanesepound the difficulty of course is that in order for the country to be put onto that reform map it really does require it to havesome sort of political normality and and thats why its very difficult to have any visibility on that i think that thelebanese town is not going to recover in the current environment clearly it a lonely recover if there is some sortof reform and that reform is really contingent on the political parties showing some sort of political will