the us economy likely laid an egg in the first quarter based on the official scorecard for growth known as gross domestic product but look past the headline number analysts say and the economy appears to have been fairly strong here’s what to watch in thursday’s gdp report for the first three months of 2022 the us economy slowed to an annual 1 rate of growth in the first quarter from a sizzling 69 at the end of 2021 analysts polled by the wall street journal estimate some noted forecasters such as ihs markit even forecast an outright decline for the first time since the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 a bad sign a whiff of a pending recession hardly economists say “that doesn’t mean the economy was weak” chief economist scott brown of raymond james said “rather gdp can be a really misleading figure sometimes” so why the big dropoff a record us international trade deficit less government spending and a decline in inventory levels yet the twin pillars that hold up the economy consumer spending and business investment were probably pretty strong in the first quarter the headline number said chief economist richard moody of regions financial “will be less informative than the details beneath it” the most import detail is consumer spending since it accounts for more than twothirds of us economic activity inflationadjusted spending likely rose almost 3 in the first quarter well above the 23 average in the 10 years before the pandemic americans are still spending plenty of money to support the economy and not just because of high inflation companies appear to have boosted spending on equipment early in the year while construction firms invested more in new housing indicating the private sector has more than enough business to keep itself busy the one negative spending on structures such as office buildings likely fell for the fourth quarter in a row soaring imports have pushed the us trade deficit to an alltime high ihs estimates the record trade gap will subtract a whopping 35 points from gdp in the first quarter helping to turn it negative the 69 surge in fourthquarter gdp was inflated by one of the biggest inventory buildups in decades as businesses sought to restock barren warehouse shelves in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic but in the first quarter reduced stockpiling is expected to subtract slightly from gdp the end of massive federal stimulus spending put in place during the pandemic is likely to depress gdp for the third time in the past four quarters also