welcome to the bloomberg surveillance newsletter a daily look at the best interviews and insights from bloomberg television and radio’s flagship morning show cohosted by tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz sign up here if you’re not yet a newsletter subscriber as we await todays federal reserve minutes the mood on the set of surveillance was decidedly wary coming back from the july 4 holiday market participants are counting on gleaning insights from the discussions that resulted in the fomc holding rates at their june 14 decision after 10 consecutive moves higher while the outcome wasnt entirely a surprise it still left some on wall street scratching their heads not least as policymakers including chair jerome powell have predicted two further hikes this year but for david lebovitz at jpmorgan asset management the fed is going to find it challenging to squeeze the last little bit of water out of this inflation sponge and it will require a recession to be successful at least judging by the inverted yield curve investors need to be prepared for the fed not blinking until the labor market deteriorates in a way that they can no longer ignore it that means unemployment getting to 45 he said ed hyman of evercore isi also sees a contraction but only one more fed hike i am the most bearish ive ever been on the economy without being in a recession he said citing the curve the money supply and quantitative tightening that threeblow hit to the economy is going to cause a recession but it doesnt happen overnight for jonathan stubbs at berenberg the second half of the year will require crash protection in us equity markets after the riproaring performance of the first six months that many failed to anticipate its difficult to find new reasons to keep buying at the moment that doesnt bode well for risk going forward he noted so instead of the dip and rip we get the rip and dip he said tom tzitzouris at strategas a baird company said for 10year treasuries current real yields were probably close to normal but he added he doesnt see them rising much further predicting inflation is close to bottoming this cycle we think its going to be very difficult for the fed to get inflation below 3 the fed does not have the stomach to do what it takes to permanently bring this structural inflation” back to neutral he said “by that we mean do excessive damage to the labor market bring aggregate demand well below potential thats what required and thats a pretty deep recession we dont think the fed has the appetite to do that today’s fed minutes will be wellscrutinized indeed as for the dollar with todays guests girding for a recession in the us what will this mean for the greenback which turned in a rollercoaster of a first half as measured by the bloomberg dollar index jane foley of rabobank said those betting on a dollar selloff towards yearend as the fed gets ready to cut rates may find themselves disappointed a large part of where the dollar will actually lie depends very much on this debate really this friction between the resilience of the economy and the perceptions that really we could be going into a recession she said to what extent is the recession going to get the upper hand in the second half she added if the recession scenario does win out the dollar could find support as a haven as investors are chased out of risk assets we dont see the dollar selling off heavily in the second half of the year she said “ciao ragazzi buongiorno buongiorno a tutti” his first words loosely translated as “hi folks good morning everyone” tom was visibly overcome with emotion responding “i have no life” bloomberg surveillance is live weekdays from 6 to 9 am new york time watch on bloomberg television on the terminal at tv and on youtube or listen to the show on bloomberg radio and radi from 7 to 10 am you can watch full episodes and subscribe to the bloomberg surveillance podcast check out gtv for all the charts seen on bloomberg television get bloomberg newsletters in your inbox   supply lines for daily insights into supply chains and globe trade   energy daily for a daily guide to the energy and commodities markets that power the global economy   bw daily for unique perspectives original reporting and insightful analysis from businessweek’s renowned journalists every weekday   crypto for an essential read on the crypto universe delivered straight to your inbox twice a week sign up for more newsletters at bloombergcom