the seesawlike tension between interest rates and stock prices should remain in play in the week ahead as investors focus on comments from federal reserve chairman jerome powell and the february employment report in the past week stocks struggled as treasury yields rose but bounced friday as yields came off their highs the benchmark 10year treasury yield touched a high of 409 before sliding back below the psychological 4 level friday rates move opposite bond prices the 10year got below 4 and the market rallied so were going to play that game even though earnings estimates continue to fall and the stock market is seemingly ignoring the trajectory of earnings and following the direction of rates said peter boockvar chief investment officer at bleakley financial group there are few earnings in the week ahead so economic data will likely be a main driver for stocks along with the comments from powell the fed chairman testifies on the economy tuesday and wednesday morning before the senate banking housing and urban affairs committee and the house financial services committee respectively it will of course be market moving as it always is and the market is going to look at this very simplistically  give me some dovishness and thats what ill focus on if i get some of that it will allow me to block out any hawkishness said boockvar greg peters pgim fixed income cochief investment officer said powell may not be as newsy for markets as the february employment report friday since that will show whether or not the feds policies are starting to cool the economy and hot job market economists expect about 200000 payrolls were added in february after a shockingly high 517000 jobs were added in january the friday report tops a brisk economic calendar of data which also includes wholesale trade tuesday and international trade job openings data and the feds beige book on the economy wednesday i think its more about the jobs data its data driven  full stop said peters powell is just reflecting the news so im not sure youll be getting any unique insights there market pros are watching to see what types of revisions might be made in januarys jobs data as that might be encouraging particularly if february data falls in line with estimates or even below forecast the strong january jobs report surprised markets along with reports of stronger retail sales and higher inflation the futures market began to price in a higher terminal rate or end point for fed rate hikes and that now stands at close to 55 by october im expecting 200000 jobs said mark zandi chief economist at moodys analytics i think underlying job growth is around 200000 i dont see any reason to think its going to be higher or lower thats still too high the fed would like to see job growth sub100000 its still too hot for them i dont think we get below 100000 until we see layoffs zandi said powells comments will be important but they may not break any new ground i think he continues to espouse a hawkish perspective hes got to be nervous about the strength of the economy and persistence of inflation and the lack of response in financial markets to his hawkish statements said zandi financial conditions havent tightened all that much i suspect hes going to talk a tough game like he has and other officials have i think theyd like to see the 10year around 4 and the fixed mortgage rates around 7 i think they want to keep them there until theres a very clear signal the economy is slowing the job market is slowing and inflation is definitely heading back to target peters said the most important information for markets this month will be the feds forecast for interest rates which is presented in a chart called the dot plot along with its economic projections those projections are expected to be updated and released at the end of the next meeting march 22 its never a settled market when the economic data are so important and hanging on chair powells words and the fact that the dot plot is really important it just kind of speaks to why theres so much volatility said peters now you have some people calling for 50 basis point hikeits just a narrative that kind of continues to get away from the fed which is why i dont think its important what powell says theyve been kind of rearview mirror kind of catching up the entire time the futures market is pricing in a high chance for a quarter point or 25 basis point hike in march a basis point equals 001 of a percentage point week ahead calendar monday earnings ww international thredup tripcom lordstown motor ciena grindr 1000 am factory orders tuesday earnings crowdstrike  stitch fix caseys general store squarespace dicks sporting goods  thor industries 1000 am wholesale trade 1000 am fed chairman jerome powell testimony before senate banking housing and urban affairs committee 300 pm consumer credit wednesday earnings campbell soup  adidas brownforman united natural foods vera bradley fossil asana mongo db 815 am adp employment 830 am international trade 1000 am powell testimony before house financial services committee 1000 am jolts 200 pm beige book thursday earnings ulta beauty gap bjs wholesale john wiley allbirds american outdoor brands wheels up experience jdcom vail resorts  american outdoor brands zumiez docusign 830 am initial claims friday earnings embraer 830 am employment report 200 pm federal budget