when we think about the inflationary forces that matter most white right now is it on the employment and wage side well definitely and it is and jpl mission yesterday due to become your steam supply chain issues linger far longer but definitely the game changer for fred has been how fast the tightening in the labour market has been and keep in mind that unemployment rate is already below neutral unemployment rate never seen at 4 percent or so and we told the agreement chairman paul dax nearterm inflation risks are still on the upside and were already at several percent near term we are expecting to see further increases to seven point two percent seven point four percent later in q1 so inflation will knock this hillary very quickly and as you said wages are likely to act still further upside to inflation and your term chairman one of the reasons we go to you is your expertise on inflation ill say again you are the best inflation forecaster last year what are you looking at for 2022 and how does the fed work to fight that and yes so people will we see very hawkish yesterday especially in the q and a and it does make sense that they want to have the optionality to react to inflation surprises on the upside and b chairman paul little this is something they see as likely so now moore sees four rate hikes this year as the floor and at the same time the fed wasnt as hawkish as they could be on the timing of two key and possible but whats your forecast for inflation chairman and well as i said we are still expecting further upticks in q1 and as we discussed previously due to energy base effect spiritually expecting the levels to come up from about 7 percent levels from q2 on and obviously we are also seeing downside risks on the growth side so ladies hiking into a slowing growth environment and especially after you mention pushing against by those build back better planned us growth projections for there are still being revised lower so yeah i mean we still actually agree the markets price section that the real rates are leading the selloff and what we saw last year be very low environmental reflation so even when loyal rates were selling off real rates were still running with inflation expectations widening but nobody is more of a growth momentum feeding peak fiscal and peak growth in us is behind us so we are actually expecting to see the sell off in rates to be led by real rates as we are seeing in the market now and we still think theres a downside for a long and brave cubans because its a hawkish message is limiting the property of future inflation overshoots sherman can i ask you ok the thinking of the inflation issue can i ask you how quickly inflation does come down what kind of numbers are we talking about for the second half of this year because weve had the initial sticker shock around a number that starts with a 7 youve suggested well keep seeing numbers that start with a 7 for a little while but how much how much relief will we get in the second half of this year do you think and while market forecasts are closer to 3 percent 10 for the lets dance in 22 but again there are lots of risks on the upside so looking at whats happening in the energy markets we are seeing frantic moment if all nine dollars per barrel with ukraine russia conflict could be further upside pressure stemming from there on the labor market as we mentioned is super super tight and so we are expecting to see further pressures on that side on the housing on oh yea rents there will be see further upside risks coming from the housing market so risks are definitely on the upside and we also need to see the growth momentum in the second half of the year and how sharp slowdown will be and how do risky assets will be able to absorb fiats new message of minimum four hikes plus kuti kicking in probably in the second quarter as well and how the market will be able to digest that and effective in pricing