a shopping cart is seen in a supermarket as inflation affected consumer prices in manhattan new york city us june 10 2022 reutersandrew kellyfile photo aug 8 reuters  us consumers expectations for where inflation will be in a year and three years dropped sharply in july a new york federal reserve survey showed on monday indicating us central bankers are winning the fight to keep the outlook for price growth wellanchored as they battle to tame high inflation median expectations for where inflation will be in one year tumbled 06 percentage point to 62 and the threeyear outlook fell 04 percentage point to 32 the lowest levels since february of this year and april of last year respectively for the oneyear outlook the fall in expectations was driven by big drops in yearahead price growth changes for gasoline and food with the decline in anticipated gasoline price growth being the second largest in the surveys nineyear history and the decline in food price growth the largest ever inflation expectations are a key dynamic being closely watched by fed policymakers as they aggressively raise interest rates to contain price pressures running at fourdecade highs the fed has raised its policy rate by 225 basis points since march as it seeks to return inflation to its 2 goal in june the deterioration in us consumers inflation outlook was cited by policymakers who pushed through a 75basispoint interest rate hike at their policy meeting that month fed officials have flagged that the possibility of another rate rise of that magnitude will depend on inflation employment consumer and economic growth data between now and their next policy meeting on sept 2021 the results of the new york feds latest monthly survey of consumer expectations provide some encouragement that things are improving even as a benchmark reading of consumer prices due later this week is expected to show little relief from inflation the labor departments consumer price index for july due to be released on wednesday is expected to show headline prices rose by 87 from a year earlier a slight decline from the prior month on the back of falling gasoline prices another key measure which strips out volatility from energy and food prices however is forecast to accelerate to 61 on an annual basis compared to 59 in june the median household spending growth expectation fell for the second straight month from mays record high the new york feds survey also showed to 69 in july the lowest level since february the 15percentagepoint drop was the largest in the series history and was broadbased across age education and income groups surveyed in the labor market expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now edged 02 percentage point lower to 402 while the mean perceived probability of losing ones job also saw a slight decline the mean probability of quitting ones job over the next year rose to 195 in july from 186 in the prior month a high quits rate is seen as reflecting worker confidence in the labor market the new york feds internetbased survey taps a rotating panel of 1300 households and is structured so that a roughly equal amount of data are collected every week of the month