when interest rates go up bonds go down investors’ expectation that more interest rate hikes are ahead also leads to the selling of fixedincome instruments it’s bad news for bonds when federal reserve bank of minnesota president neel kashkari says he’s not ready to declare a pause in rate hikes until he sees compelling evidence that core inflation is tamed bond experts like to compare the 30year type to the 10year type and the 10year to the twoyear to measure the likelihood of a recession if the twoyear yield is greater than the 10year yield it’s considered a signal that a business cycle contraction is likely right now that’s how it looks the twoyear treasury yield just hit 443 take a look at the way it’s broken above that longterm downtrend in yields represented by the declining red line compare this to the 10year treasury yield the yield here is up to 401 and the rise in yields has broken above the longterm downtrend line jp morgan chase  co says this yield has risen for 11 straight weeks so with the twoyear yield above the 10year yield many economists are expressing concern that a recession could be imminent if that’s true and more rate hikes are coming bonds will continue to be sold this is a problem for the ishares 20 year treasury bond exchangetraded fund tlt a benchmark of sorts for the bond market the yeartodate decline for the big bond exchangetraded fund etf is 32 as it dropped from 145 in early january to that much lower current price this is the lowest level for the etf since late 2018 note how the 50day moving average the blue line has crossed below the 200day moving average this is considered bearish by price chart analysts it’s also not a good sign that the price remains well below both of those moving averages nor is its inability to rally at all for the past eight sessions at some level the bond market will begin to stabilize and buyers will move in again but we’re not there yet for this market to gain real strength again it will have to be clear that the fed is about to pivot to lower interest rates if fed member kashkari is right bond investors may be in store for a long wait read next this highyield real estate fund is targeting a 1519 annualized return   private credit investment platform percent recently launched a new offering that provides exposure to factored invoices and financed purchase orders originated with a 12 apy   the caltier multifamily portfolio fund recently completed a new investment in lakefront multifamily and mixeduse development the caltier multifamily portfolio fund is one of the few nontraded real estate funds available to nonaccredited investors and has a minimum investment of 500 year to date the fund has produced an annualized cashoncash return of 702