wednesday market open the federal reserve wraps up its july meeting today and the market widely expects a quarterpoint rate increase—and wonders what’s next there’s debate about whether this is the final hike or if the economy’s summer sizzle might warrant another meanwhile investors digest contrasting earnings reports from megacaps alphabet googl and microsoft msft issued late tuesday and await meta platforms’ meta results this afternoon the federal open market committee fomc concludes its meeting at 2 pm et today followed by a press conference featuring fed chairman jerome powell his words often move the market so perhaps prepare for some volatility when he begins speaking anyone trading might want to use extra caution   the us dollar index dxy fell to 10122 a host of earnings hit the tape this morning one highlight included boeing ba which saw shares rise more than 3 in premarket trading after posting a narrowerthanexpected quarterly loss and reporting improved free cash flow due to strength in its commercial airliner business shares of cocacola ko also rose after an earnings beat so far this earnings season 148 companies have reported and 82 have beaten wall street’s earnings per share estimates—the highest percentage since q2 of 2021 and above the 10year average of 78 according to bloomberg however just 57 have beaten wall street’s average revenue estimate—the lowest since q2 2019 at a macro level the light revenue results are consistent with the idea that inflation is rolling over many companies were reliant on that to boost their prices last year and now they’re feeling the reverse effects notes kevin gordon a senior investment strategist at the schwab center for financial research microsoft and alphabet shares went their separate ways after the two behemoths reported yesterday afternoon though they’re often lumped together as “big tech” alphabet is in the communication services sector microsoft under cloud shares of microsoft fell in premarket trading despite the company beating wall street’s average fiscal q4 sales and earnings estimates revenue wasn’t as strong as some analysts had hoped with cloud business growth slowing guidance also disappointed falling short of wall street’s forecasts partly because of an anticipated slowdown in cloud revenue growth and shares fell further during the company’s call as executives provided details of the financial outlook closely watched azure cloud services revenue rose 26 down from 27 in the previous quarter this along with microsoft’s overall 7 revenue growth that failed to reach doubledigits after years of such gains could suggest that corporate investment in information technology has eased after surging earlier this decade personal computer shipments dropped for the sixth quarter in a row for microsoft bloomberg noted eroding sales of windows software and surface devices despite the stock’s poor response some analysts called microsoft’s quarterly performance “solid” and raised their price targets saying the pressure reflects a breather from the recent rally and the company failing to meet high expectations ads lift googl over at alphabet shares gained ground in premarket trading after the internet search business showed signs of an advertising recovery search advertising outpaced analysts’ expectations perhaps signaling that the long slowdown in internet advertising might be loosening its grip this could be welcome news for meta as it prepares to report later today shares of meta rose in premarket trading after alphabet reported meta keeps megacap earnings on the homepage after today’s close last time out meta’s executives warned of a “challenging regulatory environment” and a “volatile macroenvironment” nevertheless meta reported a yearoveryear revenue gain after three consecutive quarters of revenue declines lifted in part by improving facebook ad demand advertising apparently remains strong barron’s reported in late june meta’s earnings could feature an update on the company’s costcutting efforts which arguably helped lift the stock this year futures trading indicates a nearly 100 probability that the fomc will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting according to the cme fedwatch tool the probability of another hike in september is 20 the question isn’t so much what the fed will do today but what it does from here and that depends to some extent on whether a fed funds target range of 525 to 55 if the fomc hikes today will be restrictive enough to reduce inflation to the fed’s 2 target the market seems to believe it will as futures prices build in rate cuts starting next spring that would only be likely if inflation were on an obvious path back to 2   however core personal consumption expenditure pce prices rose 46 yearoveryear in may—nowhere near the fed’s 2 goal this inflation meter which the fed watches closely and gets updated for june on friday has been “sticky” at 46 to 47 most of the year   fed officials believe this stickiness reflects solid consumer spending especially on services like airline tickets restaurants hotels that boomed postpandemic healthy wages and low unemployment fuel this spending yesterday’s july consumer confidence reading from the conference board reached 117—the highest in two years—suggesting that spending could remain aggressive   still there are signs of credit tightening especially for small businesses that employ nearly 50 of the us workforce delinquencies are rising on auto and credit card loans notes kathy jones schwab’s chief fixed income strategist this could point toward cooling but it’s unclear whether it will squelch inflation enough for the fed   the european central bank ecb and bank of japan boj also meet this week the ecb is seen raising rates by another quarterpoint according to a reuters survey of analysts but the boj is expected to keep its policy unchanged home front june new home sales are due out after the open today analysts expect the sales pace to cool in june to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 722000 down from 763000 in may according to briefingcom something domestic q2 gross domestic product gdp is due out tomorrow before the open and offers the government’s first estimate of spring economic growth after a 2 annual gain in q1 consensus is for a slight pullback to 18 in q2 according to trading economics remember though that the government surprised investors with its third and final q1 estimate which was well above the prior estimate of 13 healthy consumer spending helped fuel the gain that’s no guarantee we’ll get an upside surprise but if one does come it could raise further questions about whether the fed’s been sufficiently restrictive even 2 gdp growth is arguably on the high side considering the fed’s 500 basis points of rate increases over the last 16 months ideas to mull as you trade or invest fed finger hovers over pause this week’s fomc gathering began with high expectations of a september pause but it wouldn’t be surprising to hear a hawkish spin both in the committee’s postmeeting statement and during fed chairman jerome powell’s press conference later today there’s about a 1 in 5 chance built into futures prices that the fed could hike again in september and about a 1 in 3 probability of the fed pausing in september but then hiking in november powell tends to hold his cards close to his chest at postfomc press conferences so don’t expect him to lean solidly one way or the other today instead parse his language for clues if he bangs the drum about stubbornly high inflation and a sizzling labor market it might signal that the fomc isn’t done yet and that shouldn’t really come as a surprise considering the fomc last month projected two more hikes this year not just one debate club since the fomc began its rate increase cycle in march 2022 there’s been a remarkable lack of dissent among fed policymakers that may be changing “a handful of fed officials have signaled that policy may be restrictive enough given the lag time between rate hikes and the impact on the economy” says schwab’s kathy jones yet the fomc is widely expected to raise rates today will anyone vote against the move any dissenters almost certainly would be a minority but the september meeting might bring more debate dissenters arguing to keep rates unchanged would arguably suggest that the fomc may face a higher bar to raise rates from here another thing to watch probably not until early next year is for any policymakers urging a rate cut but let’s not get ahead of ourselves rerun wall street reverted to old ways on tuesday rallying with a large contribution from the info tech sector’s biggest names shares of apple aapl alphabet meta and microsoft all gained ground this doesn’t mean there weren’t participants beyond tech the materials sector led the way fueled by a sharp rise in shares of packaging corp pkg after the company easily beat analysts’ earnings estimates despite info tech’s robust performance yesterday the fiveday sector scorecard suggests investors continue rotating into parts of the market neglected earlier this year including energy utilities and health care defensive sectors’ recent strength could be a sign of worries about higher interest rates hurting the economy july 27 q2 gross domestic product gdp first estimate june pending home sales june durable orders and expected earnings from abbvie abbv baxter bax bristolmyers bmy honeywell hon mcdonald’s mcd ford f and roku roku july 28 june personal spending june personal income june pce prices july university of michigan final consumer sentiment and expected earnings from colgatepalmolive cl aon aon exxonmobil xom and procter  gamble pg july 31 july chicago pmi and expected earnings from cna financial cna and tenet healthcare thc aug 1 july ism manufacturing index and june job openings and expected earnings from altria mo caterpillar cat illinois tool itw advanced micro devices amd merck mrk pfizer pfe uber 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