a widely followed indicator of the economic outlook briefly flashed a recession warning on tuesday as fears of a downturn continued to grip markets the spread between 2 bxtmubmusd02 and 10year yields tmubmusd10y briefly fell below zero tuesday morning for the first time since june 14 driven by a bigger decline in the 10year rate than in the 2year yield investors piled into the safety of government bonds amid a selloff in stocks that sent dow industrials down by more than 600 points an inversion of the 2s10s spread is considered to be a reliable indicator of a recession albeit with a lag