the numbers an ism barometer of us business conditions at companies such as retailers and restaurants fell to 544 in october and touched the lowest level since the us economic lockdowns in 2020 while numbers over 50 are viewed as positive for the economy the index has fallen to twoandahalf year low the last time the barometer was even lower was in may 2020 economists polled by the wall street journal had expected the index to drop to 555 the survey is produced by the institute for supply management the snapshot of the economy painted by the service sector index mirrors a similar ism survey of manufacturers that showed deteriorating business conditions the closely followed ism reports are the first major indicators of each month and offer clues on how well the economy is performing big picture the economy is still growing but so are worries about recession federal reserve chairman jerome powell on wednesday signaled the central bank is going to raise interest rates more than previously expected to try to squelch high inflation higher borrowing costs slow the economy rates have risen so rapidly many economists say that a downturn is likely in 2023 market reaction the dow jones industrial average djia and sp 500 spx fell in thursday trades