it’s inflation day and while that may have led to market turmoil last year lately economists have had a pretty good handle on things brent donnelly of spectra markets points out there was only miss by economists on core consumer prices this year in fact the market seems to be reacting more to the nasdaq’s reweighting than any macro developments of late that said the inflation report puts macro in the spotlight and makes it a good day to check in with the world of ctas or commodity trading advisors which make their money by betting on an array of futures markets typically following trends after a sensational 2022 when the world turned upside down the sg cta index returned 201 last year this year that index is flat andrew beer the coportfolio manager of the imgp dbi managed futures strategy etf dbmf  which seeks to replicate the average return of the 20 largest managed futures hedge funds told investors in a presentation about how the market keeps dodging landmines “on the macro front we cannot shake the image that the markets have been like a drunk stumbling across a highway” says beer “you sit there and watch an eighteen wheeler barrel down on this guy and clench your eyes shut– only to open them seconds later watch the dust settle and find that he’s still standing then he stumbles into the next lane and it happens again and again” those 18wheelers include the european energy crisis the regional bank crisis and the threat of a us debt default not to mention the recessionary fears present all year beer suggests that maybe this drunk will go splat “hedge fund luminaries in general are sticking to the view that we’re in for a series of rolling crises – we may have dodged these eighteen wheelers but they’ll keep coming over the horizon if one hits watch out” its biggest position is a short of the japanese yen based on the view the fed hikes while the bank of japan sits tight the fund is also long the sp 500 spx versus both nonus developed markets as well as emerging markets which he says is “arguably a growth vs value bet which lines up with the ai frenzy but not necessarily with higher rates which tend to benefit value stocks” the fund has a modest bet on longer rates is long gold perhaps a hedge if inflation surprises on the upside and short crude oil which he says is a recession hedge the fund hasn’t done great this year falling 5 but he says it’s a hedge against further turmoil “for a variety of reasons most allocators move slowly – which actually works fine most of the time however when the world shifts faster it can be a disadvantage and that’s why managed futures were so successful in 2022 – inflation came back too fast for most allocators to adapt so i view managed futures as a hedge against a world that keeps changing fast – and that certainly seems to describe the world today” us stock futures es00 nq00 nudged higher ahead of the cpi data crude futures cl00 were trading around 75 per barrel the 10year yield tmubmusd10y was 394 for more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks options and crypto subscribe to marketdiem by investor’s business daily consumer price data is due to land at 830 am eastern with expectations for a 02 monthly rise and a 03 gain in core cpi there’s some thought that the whisper number on core cpi may be lower after the usedcar data released by mannheim on monday also on the economics front the beige book from the fed is due at 2 pm cathie wood’s ark innovation fund arkk made its first sale of coinbase global coin stock on tuesday in more than a year nvidia nvda is reportedly looking to be an investor in arm’s initial public offering best of the web big investors are pressuring fastfood companies to reduce use of antibiotics the federal trade commission’s lina khan is in the hotseat after the agency lost its court battle to block microsoft’s acquisition of activision blizzard what turkey won in concessions for allowing sweden’s nato bid here were the most active stockmarket tickers as of 6 am eastern when meme stocks outperform consumer staples the broader market tends to suffer a few days later points out jonathan krinsky of btig “when we see a surge of this magnitude however especially relative to a defensive group like consumer staples it often indicates a chase for what hasn’t moved and can move the most and this often is the tail end of the move as the numbers in the table below indicate” he says it’s no better in france ticketmaster site crashes over demand for taylor swift tickets harvard withdraws papers from a dishonesty expert accused of yes dishonesty need to know starts early and is updated until the opening bell but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box the emailed version will be sent out at about 730 am eastern listen to the best new ideas in money podcast with marketwatch reporter charles passy and economist stephanie kelton