ed last friday matthew hornbach of morgan stanley asked or at least team the titled his note you know the bond market knows and then yesterday i noticed that you had title to your note what does the bond market know exactly that the equity market doesnt seem to know today again youre sort of asking that the yield on the 10 year down from four and a quarter percent to three point to nine the s  p 500 up 8 percent in the meantime can you explain that well i think what the bond market does with the fixed income markets though is that something is broke something is broken i should say to use proper grammar here and thats something in the financial system in the past whenever the yield curve is turned negative that was always a precursor to something blowing up in the financial system that leading to a credit crunch economy wide credit crunch where even good borrowers couldnt get money and that in turn led to a recession thats the real question here is that theres the problems weve had with the banking system sufficient to really create an economy wide credit crunch and i dont think thats the case but the bond market i think is basically stating that the feds done that the fed has done enough that the fed funds rate of 5 percent is restrictive enough you dont have to do any more if they do more it will be even more restrictive and increase the risk of something really going wrong here but i think the bond markets also were expressing confidence that inflation will be moderating i mean obviously re buying bonds for three and a half percent if they think that inflation is going to be coming down