the numbers the us leading index fell in september for the sixth time in seven months and suggested “a recession is increasingly likely before yearend” the conference board’s leading index dropped 03 last month extending a bout of weakness that began in the spring the index’s “persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before yearend” said ataman ozyildirim senior director of economics at the conference board the lei is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse economists polled by the wall street journal had forecast a 03 decline big picture the economy is headed for trouble high inflation and rising interest are slamming consumers and businesses consumers and the pressure is not about to let up as the federal reserve tries to tame the worst inflation in 40 years higher interest rates slow the economy read most economists think a recession is coming and ceos are preparing for one key details most of the components of the leading economic index signaled weakness for now the economy is still doing ok though a measure of current economic conditions rose 02 while the socalled lagging index a look of sorts in the rearview mirror increased 06 market reaction the dow jones industrial average djia sp 500 spx rose sharply in thursday trades