the soft inflation reading in november has not caused economists to alter their expectations for the federal reserve’s meeting that ends wednesday but analysts are ripping up their script for what comes next “stick a fork in it inflation is done” said paul ashworth chief north america economist for capital economics see us inflation slows again economists still think the fed will hike its benchmark rate by a half percentage point bringing its benchmark rate to a range of 425 45 that is slower than the four straight 075 percentage point moves seen since june read what to watch at wednesday’s fed meeting in the wake of the november cpi reading some economists think the fed slows to a quarterpoint move in february bringing the target range to 45475 matt luzzetti chief us economist at deutsche bank said the fed wants to slow to a quarterpoint move he said another soft cpi print in december would allow them to do it going at a slower pace will give the fed a greater chance of avoiding overtightening or raising rates too high luzzetti added higher rates raise borrowing costs and slow the economy other economists think a quarterpoint hike in february will be the last for the cycle “fed chairman powell’s tone will be less aggressively hawkish than in november and his more dovish colleagues likely will be emboldened by this report” said ian shepherdson chief economist at pantheon macroeconomics “we now think 25 basis points is more likely on feb 1 and we think that will be the final hike” he added “the 02 monthovermonth increase in core consumer prices in november provides strong support to our longheld view that mounting disinflation will soon persuade the fed to move to the side line after one additional 25 basis point hike in early february” he said kurt rankin senior economist at the pnc financial services group suggested economists were overly dovish “despite the encouraging november cpi result the fed’s monetary tightening will remain intact” with increases at the fed’s march meeting rankin said in an email to clients this raises a significant risk of a recession starting in the second quarter “but it’s a risk that the fed is clearly willing to take” he added “inflationary embers not fully stamped out could cause much greater damage to the us economy than the mild recession we view as likely” he added the yield on the 10year treasury note tmubmusd10y dropped sharply to 346 after the cpi data was released