up and down wall street forecasters were caught flatfooted by how the first half of 2023 unfolded in financial markets that seems to have rattled their faith in what the winning playbook for the rest of it should be   heading into the year a handful of predictions dominated strategists’ annual outlooks a global recession was imminent bonds would trounce stocks as equities retested bearmarket lows central banks would soon be able to stop the aggressive rate hikes that made 2022 such a year of market misery as growth stumbled there’d be more pain for risky assets   but that bearish outlook was shattered as stocks rallied even as the federal reserve continued to ratchet up interest rates in the face of stubbornly elevated inflation and what was supposed to be the year of the bond fizzled us treasuries have nearly wiped out their tiny gain for the year as yields test new highs and the economy remains surprisingly resilient in the face of the fed’s monetary policy onslaught   as a result financial soothsayers have rarely disagreed more about where markets are headed next that’s brought into relief by forecasts for where the sp 500 will end the year there’s a 50 difference between the most bullish one from fundstrat which sees it rising nearly 10 more to 4825 and the most bearish call from piper sandler down some 27 to 3225 according to those compiled by bloomberg the midyear gulf hasn’t been that wide in two decades some are now rescinding recommendations or pushing out the timing of their calls jpmorgan chase  co strategists recently ditched a recommended long position in fiveyear treasuries those at blackrock investment institute who suggested a push into investmentgrade bonds at the start of the year now have a neutral view of the sector at bank of america corp and elsewhere the recession once expected for this year has been pushed out as growth holds up stronger than expected  bespoke cofounder paul hickey was among those who weren’t caught completely off guard in january he offered a contrarian outlook saying that the negative consensus among strategists meant that risk assets like stocks may be poised for a rebound   “with consensus being so bearish to kick off the year rather than needing a positive catalyst to spark a rally all the market needed was a lack of bad news” he said “whenever we are faced with conflicting messages from the news and the markets we always defer to the markets’’  after a 37 surge in the nasdaq 100 index this year some strategists have revised their stockmarket targets just to account for the equity rally even if they see modest gains or declines for the rest of the year goldman sachs has raised an initial 4000 yearend target for the sp 500 to 4500 after the bank downgraded the odds of recession it closed just shy of 4400 friday bank of america barclays bny mellon investment management citigroup morgan stanley and wells fargo investment institute are among those forecasting it will end the year lower than it is now blackrock is betting on the ai boom even as it continues to warn about the dangers haunting developedmarket equities  but even with about a third of the two dozen strategists surveyed by bloomberg already upgrading their targets and measures of shortterm sentiment improved big investors remain cautious a survey by hsbc holdings plc of the largest 60 asset managers shows they have turned more dour on the longterm outlook making them even more pessimistic on highyield bonds and stocks and fueling an even stronger preference for longduration government debt at the same time the average of strategists’ yearend outlooks represents a decline of around 8 in the sp 500 in the last six months of 2023 that’s the most bearish secondhalf view since at least 1999