cc may contain inaccuracies if we do get a release of strategic reserves how long will we need it just looking at next year which we might get to a situation where we might not need more oil next year yeah i mean im not solving that right david i mean our assumption is that as early as the first quarter of next year that the global market tips back into surplus were extracting were expecting very strong no snowpack supply growth somewhere in the region of two point six million barrels a day and so yeah i think all the market needs or the us wants is something for the short term and thats why were looking at the potential spro rallies and i guess thats also why opec has been reluctant to to give in to us demands to to increase outfit more aggressively because they know whats around the corner so yeah our view is that the markets shift back into surplus next year and that does see prices trending a little bit lower from current levels and in the high 70s whether thats west texas or brands or lets even toss in natural gas because we are seasonally at the time of the year we need to start talking about natural gas do you think most of the factors have been priced in at this point its for the upside absolutely i think the upside is mostly in price then i think to the downside theres a few factors which which could still weigh further on prices firstly obviously an svr release announcement particularly its cold and a coordinated announcement secondly if we do see other european countries going into lockdown or tightening restrictions of say last week on austria announcing a full lockdown from today if we see that spreading to germany and other european countries clearly thats going to have a hit on sentiments and then i think on the supply side something that we should not forget about is that iranian nuclear talks will resume this month so if we do see a quick deal there we could potentially see iranian supply returning to the market at a fairly quick pace our view for iran is that basically we finished 2022 with one point three million barrels a day of additional supply returning to gas werent getting me being looking at perhaps these troop movements around the ukraine or the russian side how would a potential invasion of ukraine affect gas prices given the whole supply network supply pipelines etc and also perhaps in europe having to weigh this up in terms of do we buy this natural gas from russia but they have no choice in many ways absolutely i mean ukraine is is a key transit point for for for russian gas into into europe so definitely any sort of disruption of any sort of invasion there would certainly be constructive for prices but i think if we look longer term our view really is its really russian gas which is going to dominate and basically dictate price action for gas prices over the coming months obviously nord stream 2 was expected to to to to to ramp up and improve the supply situation well clearly thats not happening anytime soon our view is nord stream too is unlikely to be honest it is unlikely to come online this winter so really our expectation is that european gas prices are likely to remain volatile and obviously elevates it over the winter mark gurman and given and given given the sort of growth in lng trade that has ramifications for the asian lng market as well or im just moving now to whats happening with the metal side of things and of course we keep talking about whats happening in china property that has a direct correlation so give us a sense of where you think the various components of the metals complex go yes certainly construction is obviously a key demand point for full metals demand i mean if we just look at steel rebar prices in china theyve come under significant pressure in recent months and thats given the slowdown weve seen in construction stocks in china and then again if we look at iron ore there again thats come under significant pressure but part of that reflects the production steel cuts that they have in place within china but certainly going into 2022 our view is that the supply and demand balance is for most metals will loosen up and that does suggest that we see some downside in the majority of metal prices going into 2022 id say the one exception is probably aluminium we do see some structural deficits coming through for the aluminium markets and that suggests that the prices should continue to trend higher from here so our view is basically that thats not you thats not just priced right whats your target for whats your target then for four prices of aluminum yeah so were targeting almost an average of three thousand dollars a tonne over 20 to