jim can we stop there mikes talking about this tension between what the markets looking for rate cuts and what the fed is looking for next year anderson yeah in fact the divergence between the market and the fed is one of the largest weve ever seen you know the markets got a terminal rate peaking under 5 percent and rate cuts starting in the second half of the year the feds got a peaking above 5 and holding their all year so next year twenty three is going to be a year where somebody has got to give does the fed give to the market or does the market have to give to the fed 20 22 its always the market always talking about pause pivot you know step downs most of the time the market was wrong and they had to come to the fed if they have to come to the fed again in twenty three by readjusting their sights higher on interest rates and of terminal rate and when the fed is going to start to finally cut then we could be in for some rough sledding because i think a lot of them market is hoping that were going to see some kind of a pivot from 2020 to 3 the fed is not projecting that right now tim your best guess then you look at that spread right now its the market coming up to the fed and not the fed coming down to the market yeah i think so i think that the markets going to have to realize that the terms of the the funds rate they think is going to be around for under four and a half by the end of the year its probably gonna be closer to 5 by the time we get to one year from today rob what about you i think the fed is going to have to come to the market especially this second half of next year i mean if we run several quarters of below trend growth and break evens continue to come down here and so the feds you know the fed i think well be in a position where theyre looking at inflation really coming towards their target growth very very weak their pressure the pressure on them will all be about supporting growth all be above supporting growth the inflation you know panic will be over and i think theyre probably cutting by the second half of next year so ill have to come to the market so its interesting you two both disagree on this but agree on vine bones jim can you help me work that out well a lot of that has to do with what rob said is that youve got a yield now so when you started the year in year rates went up you were getting no yield you were just getting lost from the price but right now with a yield that is a big question for bonds and so while the first half of the year you could see yields go or prices go down and yields go higher youre getting paid to own them now something we havent seen in quite a long time