oh lord wolf a recession in the us right i mean data has been pretty strong indeed i mean i know that historically a curfew inversion is probably viewed by some policy makers and market participants as a recession indicator for example in todays cases is a hiking cycle causing a recession however i mean the shape of the curve itself is actually not a very good indicator of nearterm returns in fact raise cash thats what ive read as well from anywhere from six months to two years after an inversion however what a flat full inverted curve does indicate is that there is a less cushion from a monetary perspective so that doesnt mean that investors should go underground and hide from taking risks risky assets but investors should be aware that a tail risk are elevating and will until its going to pick up youll probably be a little bit careful where you take risks the thing is jenny more and more fed officials are calling for a back to back 50 basis point hike is the market ready for that can the market cope with that theres more and more market participants at the sell side by side are actually revising their expectations for 50 basis points points hike in the next meeting now the fed is starting from a different point this time this is the previous cycle that inflation is high and its not going to come back in the near term so it raises the risk that the fed indeed hikes to a recession that they are running because theyre running out their inflation mandate right so but i do think the market is is prepared for that i wouldnt think that the market will be surprised by a 50 basis points hike xi jinping the thing is they are going to go the other mandate which is growth and theyre favoring inflation now where we are right now in terms of average mortgage rates in the us were looking at about four point nine percent for 30 year mortgages if we see this even elevate further i mean four point nine is perhaps even a pain threshold we could see people not being able to keep up payments and that could create this horrible negative feedback loop and that is where a recession could come from what do you do you think thats the main fear there are other indicators we can look at the us economy for example look at the esm or the pmi number shery ahn pretty solid and job numbers remains very solid in fact and which numbers as well so i think at this point the economy remains pretty on its solid footing at the moment and also you from a market perspective were just talk about the inversion of the nominal curve but if you look at the real yield curve it remains at historical lows and that the curve itself its reasonably steep that means that the market thinks that the economies continue to grow and continue to to expand and the inflation pressure that we have right now will moderate fight itself so over all wise i think at this point of time the recession probability remains quite limited i didnt want to just say no to china because it has a different set of issues weve got a slowdown taking place and we got these different pmi is coming out whats your game being your main takeaway from them in china youre absolutely right china is at a very different economic cycle is the us at this point of time i would say that any bad economic news is good policy news for the market we see that china released surprisingly strong january february economic data that keeps the central bank and central government from having more aggressive policy support and now weve seen the latest pmi numbers have been pretty weak and expectations actually is getting weaker as well we could expect more and more aggressive policy support to come in the near future chinas bond yield advantage seems to be dissipating jenny chinese bonds still looking attractive yes again if you think about our business the us the arm the chinese government bonds remains attractive but from a relative perspective youre absolutely right it has come down from from from from its highs but if you think about the the different cycles were just talking about china on the easing bias where the us is definitely on the hiking bias now this china so china are above government but still gave investors a really good diversification away from the rising yield in the us