are stocks moving on the basis of macroeconomics the fed and interest rates or are earnings driving the action both matter but macro is dominant on a day when microsoft alphabet and texas instruments are all trading down 5 premarket on disappointing earnings the s  p 500 is only down about 30 points preopen the key is that the 2year yield a proxy for fed intentions is down again wednesday and has been trending downward the last 4 days not surprisingly the s  p has rallied about 5 since the close last thursday another data point the cboe volatility index vix is flat today and has been trending down for two weeks why the vix measures expected volatility in the s  p 500 looking 30 days out the two big events in the next 30 days already have outcomes that are expected first the fed meeting nov 2 where it is widely expected the central bank will hike rates 75 basis points 075 point and the nov 8 election where it is widely expected the republicans will regain control of the house of representatives as a result the vix curve the futures contracts for the next several months is showing a more normal upward curve vix futures contracts november 284 december 285 january 294 february 293