the value of forecasting models does not lie in their ability to predict the future a task that no mediumtoiong term model could realistically accomplish indeed if models based on current trends accurately predicted the future it could signal a lack of innovation or policy development as a recent report from the swedish ministry of health and social affairs states effective forecasts change the future which means that they prove and have to prove wrong ministry of health and social affairs figure presents public expenditure growth forecasts from models in five countries if no policy action is taken