to estimate probabilities of health care consumption these regression models included variables such as age health status and consumption of the same type of care in the previous period consumption of other types of care in the current and previous period education sex and region the presence of dementia and dependence in activities of daily living were also explicitly included and both influenced demand for elder care assistance which was captured as having two levels home services and special housing with hour care in turn these factors were significant predictors of mortality for those receiving elder care data on incidence prevalence and health care use of patients were obtained from patient registers providing longitudinal histories for a sixyear period age and diseasespecific risks of mortality were used individuals surviving beyond the six year period were considered disease free and were returned to face the same risks of health care consumption and death as the diseasefree population in the model