Question: Epidemiological disease burden from noncommunicable diseases is more prevalent in low economic settings.

Title: Epidemiology, health-related quality of life and economic burden of binge eating disorder: a systematic literature review Content: PURPOSE To perform a systematic review on the epidemiology, the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and economic burden of binge eating disorder (BED). METHODS A systematic literature search of English-language articles was conducted using Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Academic Search Complete, CINAHL Plus, Business Source Premier and Cochrane Library. Literature search on epidemiology was limited to studies published between 2009 and 2013. Cost data were inflated and converted to 2012 US$ purchasing power parities. All of the included studies were assessed for quality. RESULTS Forty-nine articles were included. Data on epidemiology were reported in 31, HRQoL burden in 16, and economic burden in 7 studies. Diagnosis of BED was made using 4th Edition of The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria in 46 studies. Lifetime prevalence of BED was 1.1-1.9% in the general population (DSM-IV). BED was associated with significant impairment in aspects of HRQoL relating to both physical and mental health; the Short Form 36 Physical and Mental Component Summary mean scores varied between 31.1 to 47.3 and 32.0 to 49.8, respectively. Compared to individuals without eating disorder, BED was related to increased healthcare utilization and costs. Annual direct healthcare costs per BED patient ranged between $2,372 and $3,731. CONCLUSIONS BED is a serious eating disorder that impairs HRQoL and is related to increased healthcare utilization and healthcare costs. The limited literature warrants further research, especially to better understand the long-term HRQoL and economic burden of BED.

Title: COPD: epidemiology, prevalence, morbidity and mortality, and disease heterogeneity. Content: COPD continues to cause a heavy health and economic burden both in the United States and around the world. Some of the risk factors for COPD are well-known and include smoking, occupational exposures, air pollution, airway hyperresponsiveness, asthma, and certain genetic variations, although many questions, such as why < 20% of smokers develop significant airway obstruction, remain. Precise definitions of COPD vary and are frequently dependent on an accurate diagnosis of the problem by a physician. These differences in the definition of COPD can have large effects on the estimates of COPD in the population. Furthermore, evidence that COPD represents several different disease processes with potentially different interventions continues to emerge. In most of the world, COPD prevalence and mortality are still increasing and likely will continue to rise in response to increases in smoking, particularly by women and adolescents. Resources aimed at smoking cessation and prevention, COPD education and early detection, and better treatment will be of the most benefit in our continuing efforts against this important cause of morbidity and mortality.

Title: The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. Content: IMPORTANCE Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. OBJECTIVES To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. DESIGN We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. RESULTS US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

Title: Adapting the WHO package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions, Samoa Content: Problem Samoa has been struggling to address the burden of noncommunicable diseases at the health system, community and individual levels. Approach The World Health Organization (WHO) package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions for primary health care in low-resource settings was adopted in seven villages throughout Samoa in 2015. The National Steering Committee Members designed and implemented a screening process, and local facilitators and health-care workers collected health and lifestyle data. The WHO/International Society of Hypertension risk assessment was used on villagers older than 40 years to identify people at high risk of noncommunicable disease. Local setting Samoa is a small island developing state with increasing morbidity and mortality due to noncommunicable diseases. A national representative survey indicated that 50.1% (595/1188) of the Samoan adult population is at high risk of such diseases. High numbers of noncommunicable diseases are undiagnosed or untreated, because of shortage of health-care staff and lack of awareness of risk factors. Relevant changes The teams collected data from 2234 adults. For people older than 40 years, 6.7% (54/804) were identified as being at high-risk and were encouraged to seek treatment or manage risk factors. Community members developed an awareness programme to improve understanding of lifestyle risk factors. Lessons learnt Engaging community members was crucial in conducting a successful screening campaign. By identifying those villagers at high risk of developing noncommunicable diseases, early intervention was possible. Education improved awareness of the symptom-free nature of early-stage noncommunicable diseases.

Title: The impact of COPD on lung health worldwide: epidemiology and incidence. Content: Information on the prevalence of COPD was obtained from vital statistics, health interview surveys, hospital charge records, national publications, and the World Health Organization (WHO). These data indicate that COPD is a common disease with implications for global health. In the United States, morbidity caused by COPD is 4%, making COPD the fourth leading cause of death, exceeded only by heart attacks, cancer, and stroke. Internationally, there is substantial variation in death rates possibly reflecting smoking behavior, type and processing of tobacco, pollution, climate, respiratory management, and genetic factors. The Global Obstructive Lung Disease Initiative, initiated by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the WHO, aims to raise awareness of the increasing burden of COPD, decrease morbidity and mortality, promote further study of the condition, and implement programs to prevent COPD.

Title: Primary prevention of ischemic stroke: A statement for healthcare professionals from the Stroke Council of the American Heart Association. Content: Stroke ranks as the third leading cause of death in the United States. It is now estimated that there are more than 700 000 incident strokes annually and 4.4 million stroke survivors.1 2 The economic burden of stroke was estimated by the American Heart Association to be $51 billion (direct and indirect costs) in 1999.3 Despite the advent of treatment of selected patients with acute ischemic stroke with tissue plasminogen activator and the promise of other experimental therapies, the best approach to reducing the burden of stroke remains prevention.4 5 High-risk or stroke-prone individuals can be identified and targeted for specific interventions.6 This is important because epidemiological data suggest a substantial leveling off of prior declines in stroke-related mortality and a possible increase in stroke incidence.7 8 The Stroke Council of the American Heart Association formed an ad hoc writing group to provide a clear and concise overview of the evidence regarding various established and potential stroke risk factors. The writing group was chosen based on expertise in specific subject areas, and it used literature review, reference to previously published guidelines, and expert opinion to summarize existing evidence and formulate recommendations (Table 1⇓). View this table: Table 1. Levels of Evidence and Grading of Recommendations As given in Tables 2 through 4⇓⇓⇓, risk factors or risk markers for a first stroke were classified according to potential for modification (nonmodifiable, modifiable, or potentially modifiable) and strength of evidence (well documented, less well documented).5 The tables give the estimated prevalence, population attributable risk, relative risk, and risk reduction with treatment for each factor when known. Population attributable risk reflects the proportion of ischemic strokes in the population that can be attributed to a particular risk factor and is given by the formula 100×[prevalence(relative risk−1)/prevalence(relative risk−1)+1]). …

Title: Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Content: Summary Background Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Methods Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Findings Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5–3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8–8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15–49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2–4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8–13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15–49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0–2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8–9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0–1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7–1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6–1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2–33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3–22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0–0·8) standard drinks per week. Interpretation Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Title: Who is where at risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A spatial epidemiological analysis of health insurance claims for COPD in Northeastern Germany Content: BACKGROUND Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence rate in Germany and a further increase is expected within the next years. Although risk factors on an individual level are widely understood, only little is known about the spatial heterogeneity and population-based risk factors of COPD. Background knowledge about broader, population-based processes could help to plan the future provision of healthcare and prevention strategies more aligned to the expected demand. The aim of this study is to analyze how the prevalence of COPD varies across northeastern Germany on the smallest spatial-scale possible and to identify the location-specific population-based risk factors using health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. METHODS To visualize the spatial distribution of COPD prevalence at the level of municipalities and urban districts, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific ecological risk factors for COPD. RESULTS The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of COPD was 6.5% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. Population-based risk factors consist of the proportions of insurants aged 65 and older, insurants with migration background, household size and area deprivation. The results of the GWR model revealed that the population at risk for COPD varies considerably across northeastern Germany. CONCLUSION Area deprivation has a direct and an indirect influence on the prevalence of COPD. Persons ageing in socially disadvantaged areas have a higher chance of developing COPD, even when they are not necessarily directly affected by deprivation on an individual level. This underlines the importance of considering the impact of area deprivation on health for planning of healthcare. Additionally, our results reveal that in some parts of the study area, insurants with migration background and persons living in multi-persons households are at elevated risk of COPD.

Title: Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 Content: BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Title: Air pollution and cardiovascular disease: a statement for healthcare professionals from the Expert Panel on Population and Prevention Science of the American Heart Association. Content: Air pollution is a heterogeneous, complex mixture of gases, liquids, and particulate matter. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a consistent increased risk for cardiovascular events in relation to both short- and long-term exposure to present-day concentrations of ambient particulate matter. Several plausible mechanistic pathways have been described, including enhanced coagulation/thrombosis, a propensity for arrhythmias, acute arterial vasoconstriction, systemic inflammatory responses, and the chronic promotion of atherosclerosis. The purpose of this statement is to provide healthcare professionals and regulatory agencies with a comprehensive review of the literature on air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In addition, the implications of these findings in relation to public health and regulatory policies are addressed. Practical recommendations for healthcare providers and their patients are outlined. In the final section, suggestions for future research are made to address a number of remaining scientific questions.

Title: The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Content: BACKGROUND Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. METHODS We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries. FINDINGS We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353-10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11 302 (6790-13 722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576 900 (330 000-701 200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million-17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million-121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566 000 (186 000-1 415 000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million-1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013. INTERPRETATION Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Title: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 Content: BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Title: Economic impact of primary open-angle glaucoma in Australia. Content: BACKGROUND Glaucoma is the World's leading cause of irreversible blindness, and poses serious public health and economic concerns. DESIGN Review. SAMPLES Published randomized trials and population-based studies since 1985. METHODS We report the economic impact of primary open-angle glaucoma and model the effect of changes in detection rates and management strategies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The cost-effectiveness of different interventions to prevent vision loss from primary open-angle glaucoma was measured in terms of financial cost (Australian dollars) and disability-adjusted life years. RESULTS The prevalence of glaucoma in Australia is expected to increase from 208 000 in 2005 to 379 000 in 2025 because of the aging population. Health system costs over the same time period are estimated to increase from $AU355 million to $AU784 million. Total costs (health system costs, indirect costs and costs of loss of well-being) will increase from $AU1.9 billion to $AU4.3 billion in Australia. CONCLUSION Primary open-angle glaucoma poses a significant economic burden, which will increase substantially by 2025. This dynamic model provides a valuable tool for ongoing policy formulation and determining the economic impact of interventions to better prevent visual impairment and blindness from glaucoma.

Title: The changing epidemiology of malaria in Ifakara Town, southern Tanzania. Content: Between 1995 and 2000 there were marked changes in the epidemiology of malaria in Ifakara, southern Tanzania. We documented these changes using parasitological and clinical data from a series of community- and hospital-based studies involving children up to the age of 5 years. There was a right shift and lowering in the age-specific parasite prevalence in the community-based cohort studies. The incidence of clinical malaria in placebo-receiving infants in additional study cohorts dropped from 0.8 in 1995 to 0.43 episodes per infant per year in 2000, an incidence rate ratio of 0.53 (95% confidence interval: 0.404, 0.70, P<0.0001). At the same time, there was an increase in the total number of malaria admissions and a marked right shift in the age pattern of these admissions (median age in 1995 1.55 years vs. 2.33 in 2000, P<0.0001). However, the burden of malaria deaths remained in infants. We discuss how these dramatic changes in the epidemiology of malaria may have arisen from the use of currently available malaria control tools. Caution is required in the interpretation of hospital-based data as it is likely to underestimate the impact of anaemia on mortality in the community, where most paediatric deaths occur. Even in low/moderate malaria transmission settings, where older children suffer most malaria episodes, targeting effective malaria control at infants may produce important reductions in infant mortality caused by malaria.

Title: “Rapid-Impact Interventions”: How a Policy of Integrated Control for Africa's Neglected Tropical Diseases Could Benefit the Poor Content: Over the past two decades there have been significant achievements in the control of a handful of important human tropical infections [1]. These achievements include the substantive reductions in the prevalence and incidence of the so-called neglected diseases such as lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, guinea worm, leprosy, and trachoma (Box 1) [2]. Each of these neglected diseases is a poverty-promoting and often stigmatizing condition occurring primarily in rural areas of low-income countries (Box 2) [3]. They are ancient afflictions, described in the Bible and other ancient texts, which have burdened humanity for millennia [3]. But now, as a result of aggressive regional vertical interventions, there is a possibility that some neglected tropical infections could be eventually controlled to the point of elimination in some areas of endemicity [2–8]. In the case of guinea worm infection, disease eradication might also soon be possible [9]. Box 2. Common Features of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Ancient afflictions that have burdened humanity for centuries Poverty-promoting conditions Associated with stigma Rural areas of low-income countries and fragile states No commercial markets for products that target these diseases Interventions, when applied, have a history of success

Title: Urban malaria and anaemia in children: a cross-sectional survey in two cities of Ghana. Content: OBJECTIVE To describe the epidemiology of urban malaria, an emerging problem in sub-Saharan Africa. METHOD Cross-sectional surveys of communities in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana, determining risk factors for malaria infection and anaemia in children aged 6-60 months. RESULTS Malaria prevalence rates ranged from 2% to 33% between urban communities. 47.1% of children were anaemic (Hb<11.0 g/dl). Factors associated with malaria prevalence were low socio-economic status, age and anaemia. The attributable risks of anaemia and severe anaemia (Hb<8.0 g/dl) caused by malaria were 5% and 23% respectively. CONCLUSIONS Malaria in urban areas displayed a heterogeneity and complexity that differed from the rural environment, which has important implications for malaria control. Marked intra-city variation indicates the importance of targeting specific areas or districts. The most vulnerable group, the urban poor, should be prioritized when designing control measures. This would require careful assessment of the malaria risk pattern in any city to guide an integrated control program.

Title: The epidemiology and iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: a Bayesian coalescent approach. Content: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process.

Title: Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom: analysis of epidemiological surveillance data for 1970-96. Content: OBJECTIVE To identify changes in the occurrence of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease that might be related to the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. DESIGN Epidemiological surveillance of the United Kingdom population for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease based on (a) referral of suspected cases by neurologists, neuropathologists, and neurophysiologists and (b) death certificates. SETTING England and Wales during 1970-84, and whole of the United Kingdom during 1985-96. SUBJECTS All 662 patients identified as sporadic cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age distribution of patients, age specific time trends of disease, occupational exposure to cattle, potential exposure to causative agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. RESULTS During 1970-96 there was an increase in the number of sporadic cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease recorded yearly in England and Wales. The greatest increase was among people aged over 70. There was a statistically significant excess of cases among dairy farm workers and their spouses and among people at increased risk of contact with live cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy. During 1994-6 there were six deaths from sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom in patients aged under 30. CONCLUSIONS The increase in the incidence of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and the high incidence in dairy farmers in the United Kingdom may be unrelated to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. The most striking change in the pattern of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom after the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy is provided by the incidence in a group of exceptionally young patients with a consistent and unusual neuropathological profile. The outcome of mouse transmission studies and the future incidence of the disease in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, will be important in judging whether the agent causing bovine spongiform encephalopathy has infected humans.

Title: Human herpesvirus 8 infection and Kaposi's sarcoma among human immunodeficiency virus-infected and -uninfected women. Content: Little is known about the epidemiology of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) infections among women. A cross-sectional study was conducted of HHV-8 infection among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected and high-risk HIV-uninfected women. Serological tests with noninduced (latent) and induced (lytic) HHV-8 antigens were used to detect infection among 2483 participants of a multisite cohort. Reactivity to latent antigen was present in 4.1% and to induced antigens in 12.0% of women. Seven of 8 women who reported Kaposi's sarcoma had HHV-8 antibodies. Among HIV-positive women, HHV-8 infection was associated with use of crack, cocaine, or heroin (76% vs. 65%; P<.001), past syphilis (29% vs. 20%; P<.001), an injection drug-using male sex partner (61% vs. 53%; P=.014), black race (P=.010), and enrollment site (P=.015). In multivariate analysis, HIV infection, older age, past syphilis, black race, and enrollment site were independently associated with HHV-8 infection. In this cohort of North American women, HHV-8 infection was associated with HIV infection, drug use, and risky sexual behavior.

Title: The epidemiology of sexually transmitted co-infections in HIV-positive and HIV-negative African-Caribbean women in Toronto Content: BACKGROUND HIV disproportionately affects African-Caribbean women in Canada but the frequency and distribution of sexually transmitted infections in this community have not been previously studied. METHODS We recruited women based on HIV status through a Toronto community health centre. Participants completed a socio-behavioural questionnaire using Audio Computer Assisted Self-Interview (ACASI) and provided blood for syphilis, HIV, hepatitis B and C, herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), and human cytomegalovirus (CMV) serology, urine for chlamydia and gonorrhea molecular testing and vaginal secretions for bacterial vaginosis (BV) and human papillomavirus (HPV). Differences in prevalence were assessed for statistical significance using chi-square. RESULTS We recruited 126 HIV-positive and 291 HIV-negative women, with a median age of 40 and 31 years, respectively (p < 0.001). Active HBV infection and lifetime exposure to HBV infection were more common in HIV-positive women (4.8% vs. 0.34%, p = 0.004; and 47.6% vs. 21.2%, p < 0.0001), as was a self-reported history of HBV vaccination (66.1% vs. 44.0%, p = 0.0001). Classical STIs were rare in both groups; BV prevalence was low and did not vary by HIV status. HSV-2 infection was markedly more frequent in HIV-positive (86.3%) than HIV-negative (46.6%) women (p < 0.0001). Vaginal HPV infection was also more common in HIV-positive than in HIV-negative women (50.8% vs. 22.6%, p < 0.0001) as was infection with high-risk oncogenic HPV types (48.4% vs. 17.3%, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Classical STIs were infrequent in this clinic-based population of African-Caribbean women in Toronto. However, HSV-2 prevalence was higher than that reported in previous studies in the general Canadian population and was strongly associated with HIV infection, as was infection with hepatitis B and HPV.

Title: Dietary fat and obesity: evidence from epidemiology. Content: The epidemiological evidence that a high-fat diet promotes the development of obesity is considered suggestive but not definitive. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of various epidemiological methods that have been used to address this issue as well as an updated summary of the existing evidence. Ecological studies describing dietary fat intake and obesity at the population level provide mixed results and are likely to be biased by both confounding and unknown data quality factors that differ systematically across the populations studied. Cross-sectional studies are generally in agreement that the concentration of fat in the diet is positively associated with relative weight. Prospective studies of diet in relation to subsequent weight change give inconsistent results. This may be due to behavioural factors such as dieting in response to weight gain; in addition, this type of study rarely takes into account the possible interaction between genetic predisposition and dietary fat in promoting weight gain. Finally, intervention studies in free-living subjects are considered, providing evidence of a consistent but short-lived period of active weight loss on low-fat diets. The experimental evidence on this relationship is more conclusive than the epidemiological evidence, although biological mechanisms remain controversial. Some areas for future epidemiological research involve: longitudinal studies of dietary fat intake as a predictor of growth in children; observational studies relating total dietary fat and specific types of fat to overall as well as regional adiposity; and randomized intervention studies of the effect of low-fat diets with particular emphasis on and familial predisposition to obesity and other possible modifying factors.

Title: Pandemic H1N12009 influenza and HIV: a review of natural history, management and vaccine immunogenicity. Content: PURPOSE OF REVIEW The 2009 pandemic HIN1 influenza strain (H1N12009) produced more severe disease and increased risk for mortality. As an at-risk population for more severe influenza illness, particular concern regarding HIV patients triggered a focused effort to evaluate disease burden and vaccine efficacy in these populations. RECENT FINDINGS As with other immune-compromised individuals, most HIV-infected individuals recovered without major consequence. Although HIV infection was assumed to be a risk factor for more severe disease and death, the published literature does not indicate this to be so. Neuraminadase inhibitors were well tolerated by this population and there was no evidence of clinically significant pharmacokinetic interactions with antiretroviral therapy. Immunogenicity was increased with H1N12009 vaccine compared to the historical results of nonpandemic vaccines and optimized by the use of adjuvants. Booster dosing was also of benefit. H1N12009 vaccine was generally well tolerated without evidence of detrimental effect on HIV status. SUMMARY The worse case scenario was not realized for H1N12009 in the general population or in those with HIV. Immunization with adjuvant represents a key measure to protect this population from H1N12009 and other future novel influenza strains.

Title: Reversing the tide — diagnosis and prevention of T2DM in populations of African descent Content: Abstract | Populations of African descent are at the forefront of the worldwide epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The burden of T2DM is amplified by diagnosis after preventable complications of the disease have occurred. Earlier detection would result in a reduction in undiagnosed T2DM, more accurate statistics, more informed resource allocation and better health. An underappreciated factor contributing to undiagnosed T2DM in populations of African descent is that screening tests for hyperglycaemia, specifically, fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c, perform sub‐optimally in these populations. To offset this problem, combining tests or adding glycated albumin (a nonfasting marker of glycaemia), might be the way forward. However, differences in diet, exercise, BMI, environment, gene‐environment interactions and the prevalence of sickle cell trait mean that neither diagnostic tests nor interventions will be uniformly effective in individuals of African, Caribbean or African‐American descent. Among these three populations of African descent, intensive lifestyle interventions have been reported in only the African‐American population, in which they have been found to provide effective primary prevention of T2DM but not secondary prevention. Owing to a lack of health literacy and poor glycaemic control in Africa and the Caribbean, customized lifestyle interventions might achieve both secondary and primary prevention. Overall, diagnosis and prevention of T2DM requires innovative strategies that are sensitive to the diversity that exists within populations of African descent.

Title: Variability in risk of gastrointestinal complications with individual non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: results of a collaborative meta-analysis. Content: OBJECTIVE To compare the relative risks of serious gastrointestinal complications reported with individual non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. DESIGN Systematic review of controlled epidemiological studies that found a relation between use of the drugs and admission to hospital for haemorrhage or perforation. SETTING Hospital and community based case-control and cohort studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES (a) Estimated relative risks of gastrointestinal complications with use of individual drugs, exposure to ibuprofen being used as reference; (b) a ranking that best summarised the sequence of relative risks observed in the studies. RESULTS 12 studies met the inclusion criteria. 11 provided comparative data on ibuprofen and other drugs. Ibuprofen ranked lowest or equal lowest for risk in 10 of the 11 studies. Pooled relative risks calculated with exposure to ibuprofen used as reference were all significantly greater than 1.0 (interval of point estimates 1.6 to 9.2). Overall, ibuprofen was associated with the lowest relative risk, followed by diclofenac. Azapropazone, tolmetin, ketoprofen, and piroxicam ranked highest for risk and indomethacin, naproxen, sulindac, and aspirin occupied intermediate positions. Higher doses of ibuprofen were associated with relative risks similar to those with naproxen and indomethacin. CONCLUSIONS The low risk of serious gastrointestinal complications with ibuprofen seems to be attributable mainly to the low doses of the drug used in clinical practice. In higher doses ibuprofen is associated with a similar risk to other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Use of low risk drugs in low dosage as first line treatment would substantially reduce the morbidity and mortality due to serious gastrointestinal toxicity from these drugs.

Title: Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study Content: BACKGROUND Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population. METHODS AND FINDINGS Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%-5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%-1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014-2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5-10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0-2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014-2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations. CONCLUSION Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations.

Title: Report of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Workshop on Lipoprotein(a) and Cardiovascular Disease: recent advances and future directions. Content: It has been estimated that approximately 37% of the US population judged to be at high risk for developing coronary artery disease (CAD), based on the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, have increased plasma lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], whereas Lp(a) is increased in only 14% of those judged to be at low risk. Therefore, the importance of establishing a better understanding of the relative contribution of Lp(a) to the risk burden for CAD and other forms of vascular disease, as well as the underlying mechanisms, is clearly evident. However, the structural complexity and size heterogeneity of Lp(a) have hindered the development of immunoassays to accurately measure Lp(a) concentrations in plasma. The large intermethod variation in Lp(a) values has made it difficult to compare data from different clinical studies and to achieve a uniform interpretation of clinical data. A workshop was recently convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) to evaluate our current understanding of Lp(a) as a risk factor for atherosclerotic disorders; to determine how future studies could be designed to more clearly define the extent to which, and mechanisms by which, Lp(a) participates in these processes; and to present the results of the NHLBI-supported program for the evaluation and standardization of Lp(a) immunoassays. This report includes the most recent data presented by the workshop participants and the resulting practical and research recommendations.

Title: Exploring the epidemiological characteristics of cancers of unknown primary site in an Australian population: implications for research and clinical care. Content: OBJECTIVES To investigate incidence, mortality and case survival trends for cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) and consider clinical implications. METHOD South Australian Cancer Registry data were used to calculate age-standardised incidence and mortality rates from 1977 to 2004. Disease-specific survivals, socio-demographic, histological and secular predictors of CUP, compared with cancers of known primary site, and of CUP histological types, using multivariable logistic regression were investigated. RESULTS Incidence and mortality rates increased approximately 60% between 1977--80 and 1981--84. Rates peaked in 1993--96. Male to female incidence and mortality rate ratios approximated 1.3:1. Incidence and mortality rates increased with age. The odds of unspecified histological type, compared with the more common adenocarcinomas, were higher for males than females, non-metropolitan residents, low socio-economic areas, and for 1977--88 than subsequent diagnostic periods. CUP represented a higher proportion of cancers in Indigenous patients. Case survival was 7% at 10 years from diagnosis. Factors predictive of lower case survival included older age, male sex, Indigenous status, lower socio-economic status, and unspecified histology type. CONCLUSION Results point to poor CUP outcomes, but with a modest improvement in survival. The study identifies socio-demographic groups at elevated risk of CUP and of worse treatment outcomes where increased research and clinical attention are required.

Title: Variations and Trends in Health Burden of Visual Impairment Due to Cataract: A Global Analysis. Content: Purpose To evaluate the global trends in health burden of people visually impaired from cataract in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and its correlations with national levels of socioeconomic development. Methods Global, regional, and national DALY numbers, crude rate, and age-standardized rate of cataract vision loss by age and sex were obtained from the database of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The human development index, per capita gross domestic product, and other country-level data were derived from international open databases. Regression analysis was used to assess the correlations between age-standardized DALY rate and socioeconomic variables. Results The global DALY numbers of cataract vision loss increased by 89.42%, from 2048.18 (95%CI [confidence interval]: 1457.60-2761.80) thousands in 1990 to 3879.74 (95% CI: 2766.07-5232.43) thousands in 2015 (P < 0.001). Females had higher DALY number 315.83 (95%CI: 237.17-394.4) and crude rate 38.29 (95%CI: 35.35-41.23) after adjusting for age and country (all P < 0.001). The age-standardized DALY rate was higher in countries with low human development index (HDI), with 91.03 (95%CI: 73.04-108.75) for low HDI, 81.67 (95%CI: 53.24-108.82) for medium HDI, 55.89 (95%CI: 36.87-69.63) for high HDI, and 17.10 (95%CI: 13.91-26.84) for very high HDI countries (P < 0.01), respectively. The national age-standardized DALY rates in 2015 were negatively associated with both HDI (R2 = 0.489, P < 0.001) and per capita gross domestic product (R2 = 0.331, P < 0.001). Stepwise multiple regression showed that HDI was significantly correlated with national age-standardized DALY rates in 2015 after adjusting for other confounding factors (P < 0.001). Conclusions The global health burden of vision loss due to cataract increased between 1990 and 2015 despite considerable efforts from the World Health Organization and VISION 2020 initiatives.

Title: The epidemiology of major depressive disorder: results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R). Content: CONTEXT Uncertainties exist about prevalence and correlates of major depressive disorder (MDD). OBJECTIVE To present nationally representative data on prevalence and correlates of MDD by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria, and on study patterns and correlates of treatment and treatment adequacy from the recently completed National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R). DESIGN Face-to-face household survey conducted from February 2001 to December 2002. SETTING The 48 contiguous United States. PARTICIPANTS Household residents ages 18 years or older (N = 9090) who responded to the NCS-R survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Prevalence and correlates of MDD using the World Health Organization's (WHO) Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), 12-month severity with the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report (QIDS-SR), the Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS), and the WHO disability assessment scale (WHO-DAS). Clinical reinterviews used the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. RESULTS The prevalence of CIDI MDD for lifetime was 16.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.1-17.3) (32.6-35.1 million US adults) and for 12-month was 6.6% (95% CI, 5.9-7.3) (13.1-14.2 million US adults). Virtually all CIDI 12-month cases were independently classified as clinically significant using the QIDS-SR, with 10.4% mild, 38.6% moderate, 38.0% severe, and 12.9% very severe. Mean episode duration was 16 weeks (95% CI, 15.1-17.3). Role impairment as measured by SDS was substantial as indicated by 59.3% of 12-month cases with severe or very severe role impairment. Most lifetime (72.1%) and 12-month (78.5%) cases had comorbid CIDI/DSM-IV disorders, with MDD only rarely primary. Although 51.6% (95% CI, 46.1-57.2) of 12-month cases received health care treatment for MDD, treatment was adequate in only 41.9% (95% CI, 35.9-47.9) of these cases, resulting in 21.7% (95% CI, 18.1-25.2) of 12-month MDD being adequately treated. Sociodemographic correlates of treatment were far less numerous than those of prevalence. CONCLUSIONS Major depressive disorder is a common disorder, widely distributed in the population, and usually associated with substantial symptom severity and role impairment. While the recent increase in treatment is encouraging, inadequate treatment is a serious concern. Emphasis on screening and expansion of treatment needs to be accompanied by a parallel emphasis on treatment quality improvement.

Title: Accelerating Policy Decisions to Adopt Haemophilus influenzae Type b Vaccine: A Global, Multivariable Analysis Content: BACKGROUND Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). METHODS AND FINDINGS Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

Title: Alcohol, wine, and health Content: Abstract Background: For the past 20 years numerous epidemiological studies have correlated the consumption of alcohol and a variety of disease states: overall mortality, arteriosclerotic vascular diseases, hypertension, cancers, peptic ulcer, respiratory infections, gall stones, kidney stones, age-related macular degeneration, bone density, and cognitive function. Methods: A review of these articles reveals that each of these studies has compared the outcome of individuals at various levels of alcohol consumption with that of abstainers. Results: Each analysis has identified a U-shaped or J-shaped curve of reduced relative risk for a given disease state compared with abstainers. A clear definition of consumption in moderation becomes evident: for men it should not exceed 2 to 4 drinks per day, and for women it should not exceed 1 to 2 drinks per day. Conclusions: Alcohol by itself has favorable effects on the level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and inhibition of platelet aggregation. Wine, particularly red wine, has high levels of phenolic compounds that favorably influence multiple biochemical systems, such as increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, antioxidant activity, decreased platelet aggregation and endothelial adhesion, suppression of cancer cell growth, and promotion of nitric oxide production.

Title: Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study Content: BACKGROUND Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. METHODS We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. FINDINGS We analysed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality. INTERPRETATION Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council.

Title: High somatic mutation and neoantigen burden are correlated with decreased progression-free survival in multiple myeloma Content: Tumor-specific mutations can result in immunogenic neoantigens, both of which have been correlated with responsiveness to immune checkpoint inhibitors in highly mutagenic cancers. However, early results of single-agent checkpoint inhibitors in multiple myeloma (MM) have been underwhelming. Therefore, we sought to understand the relationship between mutation and neoantigen landscape of MM patients and responsiveness to therapies. Somatic mutation burden, neoantigen load, and response to therapy were determined using interim data from the MMRF CoMMpass study (NCT01454297) on 664 MM patients. In this population, the mean somatic and missense mutation loads were 405.84(s=608.55) and 63.90(s=95.88) mutations per patient, respectively. There was a positive linear relationship between mutation and neoantigen burdens (R2=0.862). The average predicted neoantigen load was 23.52(s=52.14) neoantigens with an average of 9.40(s=26.97) expressed neoantigens. Survival analysis revealed significantly shorter progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with greater than average somatic missense mutation load (N=163, 0.493 vs 0.726 2-year PFS, P=0.0023) and predicted expressed neoantigen load (N=214, 0.555 vs 0.729 2-year PFS, P=0.0028). This pattern is maintained when stratified by disease stage and cytogenetic abnormalities. Therefore, high mutation and neoantigen load are clinically relevant risk factors that negatively impact survival of MM patients under current standards of care.

Title: Caregiver burden in HIV-positive and HIV-negative partners of men with AIDS. Content: This study examines factors associated with caregiver burden in 82 HIV-positive (HIV+) and 162 HIV-negative (HIV-) partners of men with AIDS. We expected HIV+ caregivers to report more burden than HIV- caregivers because of the toll of their disease on their resources. HIV+ caregivers did report more burden and, compared with the HIV- caregivers, they were more religious or spiritual, had less income, and coped by using more positive reappraisal and cognitive escape-avoidance and by seeking social support. Comparisons of HIV+ caregivers with 61 HIV+ partners of healthy men indicated that most differences between HIV+ and HIV- caregivers were associated with HIV seropositivity rather than caregiving. However, of the variables associated with HIV seropositivity, only religiosity or spirituality contributed independently to burden in HIV+ caregivers, suggesting a relatively weak link between HIV seropositivity and caregiver burden. The model explained 62% of the variance in burden in HIV+ caregivers and 36% of the variance in HIV- caregivers.

Title: The last and the next hundred years of malariology. Content: The founding fathers of malariology combined scientific originality, perseverance in research, strong characters, breadth of interest and social concern. A hundred years later research and understanding has made immense progress but the world still bears a huge burden of malaria. For the next century research requires both more specialism and a holistic range if it is to be used in control, requiring multidisciplinary team work. Environmental changes and interventions produce a dynamic and changing pattern of malaria, not the static one of the past. From the original parasite life cycle, research has analysed a series of other cycles at electron microscope, biochemical and genome levels on decreasing size scales and quantitative epidemiological cycles for control. Recent additions to these concepts have been stage-specific antigens, cycles of disease rather than parasites alone, considering populations of parasites rather than just cases, and also genetic variation in each component of the parasite-human host-vector triad. In this volume there emerges for the first time a coherent overall picture of the biomedical aspects of basic malariology as the interacting population genetics of malaria parasites, anophelines and people. This provides a coherent model for the new century dealing with the great biological malaria problems of drug resistance, vaccine development, insecticidal and net control and can feed, with socio-economic work, into the gathering renewal of control efforts. New work on large-scale changes of malaria in space and time enables us to be precise about effects of local and global environmental changes to predict epidemics. Future research will be as much about linking these different scales of understanding as control will be about linking different levels of the health system. The grim situation in poor holoendemic countries also requires practical support of the type that the founders of malariology were involved in. A coherent understanding needs to feed into the new control efforts, from Roll Back Malaria onwards, for the next century.

Title: Prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factor in the Chinese population: the 2007-2008 China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Study. Content: AIMS Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is now the most prevalent and debilitating disease affecting the Chinese population. The goal of the present manuscript was to analyse cardiovascular risk factors and the prevalence of non-fatal CVDs from data gathered from the 2007-2008 China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Study. METHODS AND RESULTS A nationally representative sample of 46 239 adults, 20 years of age or older, was randomly recruited using a multistage stratified design method. Lifestyle factors, diagnosis of CVD, stroke, diabetes, and family history of each subject were collected, and an oral glucose tolerance test or a standard meal test was performed. Various non-fatal CVDs were reported by the subjects. SUDAAN software was used to perform all weighted statistical analyses, with P < 0.05 considered statistically significant. The prevalence of coronary heart disease, stroke, and CVDs was 0.74, 1.07, and 1.78% in males; and 0.51, 0.60, and 1.10% in females, respectively. The presence of CVDs increased with age in both males and females. The prevalence of being overweight or obese, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, or hyperglycaemia was 36.67, 30.09, 67.43, and 26.69% in males; and 29.77, 24.79, 63.98, and 23.62% in females, respectively. In the total sample of 46 239 patients, the prevalence of one subject having 1, 2, 3, or ≥4 of the 5 defined risk factors (i.e. smoking, overweight or obese, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, or hyperglycaemia) was 31.17, 27.38, 17.76, and 10.19%, respectively. Following adjustment for gender and age, the odds ratio of CVDs for those who had 1, 2, 3, or ≥4 risk factors was 2.36, 4.24, 4.88, and 7.22, respectively, when compared with patients with no risk factors. CONCLUSION Morbidity attributed to the five defined cardiovascular risk factors was high in the Chinese population, with multiple risk factors present in the same individual. Therefore, reasonable prevention strategies should be designed to attenuate the rapid rise in cardiovascular morbidity.

Title: Local neuroinflammation and the progression of Alzheimer’s disease Content: Postmortem immunohistochemical studies have revealed a state of chronic inflammation limited to lesioned areas of brain in Alzheimer’s disease. Some key actors in this inflammation are activated microglia (brain macrophages), proteins of the classical complement cascade, the pentraxins, cytokines, and chemokines. The inflammation does not involve the adaptive immune system or peripheral organs, but is rather due to the phylogenetically much older innate immune system, which appears to operate in most tissues of the body. Chronic inflammation can damage host tissue and the brain may be particularly vulnerable because of the postmitotic nature of neurons. Many of the inflammatory mediators have been shown to be locally produced and selectively elevated in affected regions of Alzheimer’s brain. Moreover, studies of tissue in such degenerative processes as atherosclerosis and infarcted heart suggest a similar local innate immune reaction may be important in such conditions. Much epidemiological and limited clinical evidence suggests that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may impede the onset and slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. But these drugs strike at the periphery of the inflammatory reaction. Much better results might be obtained if drugs were found that could inhibit the activation of microglia or the complement system in brain, and combinations of drugs aimed at different inflammatory targets might be much more effective than single agents.

Title: Global prevalence of anxiety disorders: a systematic review and meta-regression. Content: BACKGROUND The literature describing the global prevalence of anxiety disorders is highly variable. A systematic review and meta-regression were undertaken to estimate the prevalence of anxiety disorders and to identify factors that may influence these estimates. The findings will inform the new Global Burden of Disease study. Method A systematic review identified prevalence studies of anxiety disorders published between 1980 and 2009. Electronic databases, reference lists, review articles and monographs were searched and experts then contacted to identify missing studies. Substantive and methodological factors associated with inter-study variability were identified through meta-regression analyses and the global prevalence of anxiety disorders was calculated adjusting for study methodology. RESULTS The prevalence of anxiety disorders was obtained from 87 studies across 44 countries. Estimates of current prevalence ranged between 0.9% and 28.3% and past-year prevalence between 2.4% and 29.8%. Substantive factors including gender, age, culture, conflict and economic status, and urbanicity accounted for the greatest proportion of variability. Methodological factors in the final multivariate model (prevalence period, number of disorders and diagnostic instrument) explained an additional 13% of variance between studies. The global current prevalence of anxiety disorders adjusted for methodological differences was 7.3% (4.8-10.9%) and ranged from 5.3% (3.5-8.1%) in African cultures to 10.4% (7.0-15.5%) in Euro/Anglo cultures. CONCLUSIONS Anxiety disorders are common and the substantive and methodological factors identified here explain much of the variability in prevalence estimates. Specific attention should be paid to cultural differences in responses to survey instruments for anxiety disorders.

Title: Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Content: BACKGROUND More than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur in low-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown. METHODS We enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural communities in 17 countries (3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessed their cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score for quantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higher scores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incident cardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years. RESULTS The mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediate in middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001). However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-income countries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 person-years vs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Case fatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3% in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P=0.01). Urban communities had a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower rates of cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) and case fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medications and revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-income countries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Although the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates of major cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in high-income countries may have been mitigated by better control of risk factors and more frequent use of proven pharmacologic therapies and revascularization. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

Title: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package: a software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics. Content: This paper describes the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for estimating and projecting HIV prevalence levels in countries with generalised epidemics. The paper gives an overall summary of the software and interface. It describes the process of defining and modelling a national epidemic in terms of locally relevant sub-epidemics and the four epidemiological parameters used to fit a curve to produce the prevalence trends in the epidemic. It also provides an example of using the EPP in a country with a generalised epidemic. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the software and its envisaged future developments.

Title: Thalassemia and malaria: new insights into an old problem. Content: The hemoglobinopathies are probably the world's most common genetic diseases: The World Health Organization has estimated that at least 5% of the population are carriers for one or other of the most serious forms, the alpha- and beta-thalassemias and the structural variant hemoglobins S, C, and E, which are found at polymorphic frequencies in many countries. All these hemoglobinopathies are believed to provide protection against malaria, and it is thought that, in malarial regions of the world, natural selection has been responsible for elevating and maintaining their gene frequencies, an idea first proposed 50 years ago by J.B.S. Haldane. Epidemiological studies undertaken in the 1950s on hemoglobin S in Africa provided support for the "malaria hypothesis," but until recently it has proved extremely difficult to verify it for the thalassemias. The application of molecular methods has, however, provided new opportunities to address this old question. Population and molecular genetic analysis of thalassemia variants, and microepidemiological studies of the relationship between alpha-thalassemia and malaria in the southwest Pacific, have provided unequivocal evidence for protection. Surprisingly, some of this protection appears to derive from enhanced susceptibility in very young thalassemic children to both Plasmodium falciparum and, especially, P. vivax, and this early exposure appears to provide the basis for better protection in later life.

Title: Exercise and the immune system: regulation, integration, and adaptation. Content: Stress-induced immunological reactions to exercise have stimulated much research into stress immunology and neuroimmunology. It is suggested that exercise can be employed as a model of temporary immunosuppression that occurs after severe physical stress. The exercise-stress model can be easily manipulated experimentally and allows for the study of interactions between the nervous, the endocrine, and the immune systems. This review focuses on mechanisms underlying exercise-induced immune changes such as neuroendocrinological factors including catecholamines, growth hormone, cortisol, beta-endorphin, and sex steroids. The contribution of a metabolic link between skeletal muscles and the lymphoid system is also reviewed. The mechanisms of exercise-associated muscle damage and the initiation of the inflammatory cytokine cascade are discussed. Given that exercise modulates the immune system in healthy individuals, considerations of the clinical ramifications of exercise in the prevention of diseases for which the immune system has a role is of importance. Accordingly, drawing on the experimental, clinical, and epidemiological literature, we address the interactions between exercise and infectious diseases as well as exercise and neoplasia within the context of both aging and nutrition.

Title: Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis Content: BACKGROUND The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. METHODS We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. FINDINGS We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3-13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1-4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265,000 (95% CI 160,000-450,000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. INTERPRETATION Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. FUNDING WHO.

Title: The history of SIVS and AIDS: epidemiology, phylogeny and biology of isolates from naturally SIV infected non-human primates (NHP) in Africa. Content: Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) naturally infects non-human primates in Africa. To date, 40 SIVs have been described both in natural hosts and in heterologous species. These viruses are highly diverse and the majority cluster in 6 relatively equidistant phylogenetic lineages. At least 8 SIVs are currently considered as recombinant viruses, based on different clustering patterns in different genomic regions. Only three types of genomes are known, based on the number of accessory genes: vpr-containing genomes, vpr-vpx containing genomes and vpr-vpu-containing genomes. vpx resulted by a duplication of the vpr gene following non-homologous recombination and is characteristic of SIVs infecting the Papionini tribe of monkeys and HIV-2 in humans. vpu is characteristic of SIVcpz and HIV-1 and may have originated from a recombination involving SIVs from cercopitecini monkeys. SIV seems to be non-pathogenic in the vast majority of natural hosts in spite of a high levels of viral replication. This is probably a consequence of virus-host adaptation, in which the incubation period of the disease generally exceeds the life span of the African primate host. SIVs also have a high propensity for cross-species transmission. In the new host, the outcome may vary from inapparent infection to highly pathogenic, the former being reported for African monkeys, whereas the latter being observed in macaques and humans. The high diversity of SIVs was generated by a high mutation rate due to a low fidelity of the reverse-transcriptase and active viral and host cell turnover, host-dependent evolution and recombination. Cross-species transmission is not rare, however preferential host switching may drive the majority of cross-species transmissions. Numerous SIVs tested so far are able to grow in vitro on human PBMC, therefore it has been postulated that SIV represents a threat for infection of humans in Central Africa and that AIDS is a zoonosis. However, although the simian origin of the two HIV types is broadly acknowledged, there are no data that AIDS is acquired like a zoonosis. SIV may undergo adaptation in the new human host in order to emerge in the general population. The study of SIV in their natural hosts should provide important clues to the real threat to human populations and also elucidate the mechanisms associated with a long-term persistent viral infection without clinical consequences for the host.

Title: Prevalence and cardiovascular disease correlates of low cardiorespiratory fitness in adolescents and adults. Content: CONTEXT Population surveys indicate that physical activity levels are low in the United States. One consequence of inactivity, low cardiorespiratory fitness, is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality, but the prevalence of cardiorespiratory fitness has not been quantified in representative US population samples. OBJECTIVES To describe the prevalence of low fitness in the US population aged 12 through 49 years and to relate low fitness to CVD risk factors in this population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Inception cohort study using data from the cross-sectional nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2002. Participants were adolescents (aged 12-19 years; n = 3110) and adults (aged 20-49 years; n = 2205) free from previously diagnosed CVD who underwent submaximal graded exercise treadmill testing to achieve at least 75% to 90% of their age-predicted maximum heart rate. Maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) was estimated by measuring the heart rate response to reference levels of submaximal work. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Low fitness defined using percentile cut points of estimated VO2max from existing external referent populations; anthropometric and other CVD risk factors measured according to standard methods. RESULTS Low fitness was identified in 33.6% of adolescents (approximately 7.5 million US adolescents) and 13.9% of adults (approximately 8.5 million US adults); the prevalence was similar in adolescent females (34.4%) and males (32.9%) (P = .40) but was higher in adult females (16.2%) than in males (11.8%) (P = .03). Non-Hispanic blacks and Mexican Americans were less fit than non-Hispanic whites. In all age-sex groups, body mass index and waist circumference were inversely associated with fitness; age- and race-adjusted odds ratios of overweight or obesity (body mass index > or =25) ranged from 2.1 to 3.7 (P<.01 for all), comparing persons with low fitness with those with moderate or high fitness. Total cholesterol levels and systolic blood pressure were higher and levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were lower among participants with low vs high fitness. CONCLUSION Low fitness in adolescents and adults is common in the US population and is associated with an increased prevalence of CVD risk factors.

Title: Clinical epidemiology of heart failure. Content: The aim of this paper is to review the clinical epidemiology of heart failure. The last paper comprehensively addressing the epidemiology of heart failure in Heart appeared in 2000. Despite an increase in manuscripts describing epidemiological aspects of heart failure since the 1990s, additional information is still needed, as indicated by various editorials.

Title: Global prevalence of glaucoma and projections of glaucoma burden through 2040: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Content: PURPOSE Glaucoma is the leading cause of global irreversible blindness. Present estimates of global glaucoma prevalence are not up-to-date and focused mainly on European ancestry populations. We systematically examined the global prevalence of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) and primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG), and projected the number of affected people in 2020 and 2040. DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. PARTICIPANTS Data from 50 population-based studies (3770 POAG cases among 140,496 examined individuals and 786 PACG cases among 112 398 examined individuals). METHODS We searched PubMed, Medline, and Web of Science for population-based studies of glaucoma prevalence published up to March 25, 2013. Hierarchical Bayesian approach was used to estimate the pooled glaucoma prevalence of the population aged 40-80 years along with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Projections of glaucoma were estimated based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Bayesian meta-regression models were performed to assess the association between the prevalence of POAG and the relevant factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Prevalence and projection numbers of glaucoma cases. RESULTS The global prevalence of glaucoma for population aged 40-80 years is 3.54% (95% CrI, 2.09-5.82). The prevalence of POAG is highest in Africa (4.20%; 95% CrI, 2.08-7.35), and the prevalence of PACG is highest in Asia (1.09%; 95% CrI, 0.43-2.32). In 2013, the number of people (aged 40-80 years) with glaucoma worldwide was estimated to be 64.3 million, increasing to 76.0 million in 2020 and 111.8 million in 2040. In the Bayesian meta-regression model, men were more likely to have POAG than women (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% CrI, 1.23-1.52), and after adjusting for age, gender, habitation type, response rate, and year of study, people of African ancestry were more likely to have POAG than people of European ancestry (OR, 2.80; 95% CrI, 1.83-4.06), and people living in urban areas were more likely to have POAG than those in rural areas (OR, 1.58; 95% CrI, 1.19-2.04). CONCLUSIONS The number of people with glaucoma worldwide will increase to 111.8 million in 2040, disproportionally affecting people residing in Asia and Africa. These estimates are important in guiding the designs of glaucoma screening, treatment, and related public health strategies.

Title: Poverty, Hunger, Education, and Residential Status Impact Survival in HIV Content: Despite combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV infected people have higher mortality than non-infected. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) predicts higher mortality in many chronic illnesses but data in people with HIV is limited. We evaluated 878 HIV infected individuals followed from 1995 to 2005. Cox proportional hazards for all-cause mortality were estimated for SES measures and other factors. Mixed effects analyses examined how SES impacts factors predicting death. The 200 who died were older, had lower CD4 counts, and higher viral loads (VL). Age, transmission category, education, albumin, CD4 counts, VL, hunger, and poverty predicted death in univariate analyses; age, CD4 counts, albumin, VL, and poverty in the multivariable model. Mixed models showed associations between (1) CD4 counts with education and hunger; (2) albumin with education, homelessness, and poverty; and (3) VL with education and hunger. SES contributes to mortality in HIV infected persons directly and indirectly, and should be a target of health policy in this population.

Title: Obesity and Its Metabolic Complications: The Role of Adipokines and the Relationship between Obesity, Inflammation, Insulin Resistance, Dyslipidemia and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Content: Accumulating evidence indicates that obesity is closely associated with an increased risk of metabolic diseases such as insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Obesity results from an imbalance between food intake and energy expenditure, which leads to an excessive accumulation of adipose tissue. Adipose tissue is now recognized not only as a main site of storage of excess energy derived from food intake but also as an endocrine organ. The expansion of adipose tissue produces a number of bioactive substances, known as adipocytokines or adipokines, which trigger chronic low-grade inflammation and interact with a range of processes in many different organs. Although the precise mechanisms are still unclear, dysregulated production or secretion of these adipokines caused by excess adipose tissue and adipose tissue dysfunction can contribute to the development of obesity-related metabolic diseases. In this review, we focus on the role of several adipokines associated with obesity and the potential impact on obesity-related metabolic diseases. Multiple lines evidence provides valuable insights into the roles of adipokines in the development of obesity and its metabolic complications. Further research is still required to fully understand the mechanisms underlying the metabolic actions of a few newly identified adipokines.

Title: Infectiousness of malaria-endemic human populations to vectors. Content: Despite its key role in determining the stability and intensity of malaria transmission, the infectiousness of human populations to mosquitoes has rarely been estimated. Field-based analyses of malaria transmission have frequently relied on the prevalence of asexual parasites or gametocytes as proxies for infectiousness. We now summarize empirical data on human infectiousness from Africa and Papua New Guinea. Over a wide range of transmission intensities there is little relationship between the infectiousness of human populations to vector mosquitoes and mosquito-to-human transmission intensity. We compare these data with the predictions of a stochastic simulation model of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology. This model predicted little variation in the infectiousness of the human population for entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs) greater than approximately 10 infectious bites per year, demonstrating that the lack of relationship between the EIR and the infectious reservoir can be explained without invoking any effects of acquired transmission-blocking immunity. The near absence of field data from areas with an EIR < 10 per year precluded validation of the model predictions for low EIR values. These results suggest that interventions reducing mosquito-to-human transmission will have little or no effect on human infectiousness at the levels of transmission found in most rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Unless very large reductions in transmission can be achieved, measures to prevent mosquito-to-human transmission need to be complemented with interventions that reduce the density or infectiousness of blood stage parasites.

Title: The Burden of Trachoma in Ayod County of Southern Sudan Content: BACKGROUND Blindness due to trachoma is avoidable through Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial hygiene and Environmental improvements (SAFE). Recent surveys have shown trachoma to be a serious cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. We conducted this survey in Ayod County of Jonglei State to estimate the need for intervention activities to eliminate blinding trachoma. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS A cross-sectional two-stage cluster random survey was conducted in November 2006. All residents of selected households were clinically assessed for trachoma using the World Health Organization (WHO) simplified grading scheme. A total of 2,335 people from 392 households were examined, of whom 1,107 were over 14 years of age. Prevalence of signs of active trachoma in children 1-9 years of age was: trachomatous inflammation follicular (TF) = 80.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 73.9-86.3); trachomatous inflammation intense (TI) = 60.7% (95% CI, 54.6-66.8); and TF and/or TI (active trachoma) = 88.3% (95% CI, 83.7-92.9). Prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) was 14.6% (95% CI, 10.9-18.3) in adults over 14 years of age; 2.9% (95% CI, 0.4-5.3) in children 1-14 years of age; and 8.4% (95% CI, 5.5-11.3) overall. The prevalence of corneal opacity in persons over 14 years of age with TT was 6.4% (95% CI, 4.5-8.3). No statistically significant difference was observed in the prevalence of trachoma signs between genders. Trachoma affected almost all households surveyed: 384/392 (98.0%) had at least one person with active trachoma and 130 (33.2%) had at least one person with trichiasis. CONCLUSIONS Trachoma is an unnecessary public health problem in Ayod. The high prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis confirms the severe burden of blinding trachoma found in other post-conflict areas of Southern Sudan. Based on WHO recommended thresholds, all aspects of the SAFE strategy are indicated to eliminate blinding trachoma in Ayod.

Title: Treatment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: role of AMPK. Content: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing worldwide epidemic and an important risk factor for the development of insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and hepatic cellular carcinoma (HCC). Despite the prevalence of NAFLD, lifestyle interventions involving exercise and weight loss are the only accepted treatments for this disease. Over the last decade, numerous experimental compounds have been shown to improve NAFLD in preclinical animal models, and many of these therapeutics have been shown to increase the activity of the cellular energy sensor AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK). Because AMPK activity is reduced by inflammation, obesity, and diabetes, increasing AMPK activity has been viewed as a viable therapeutic strategy to improve NAFLD. In this review, we propose three primary mechanisms by which AMPK activation may improve NAFLD. In addition, we examine the mechanisms by which AMPK is activated. Finally, we identify 27 studies that have used AMPK activators to reduce NAFLD. Future considerations for studies examining the relationship between AMPK and NAFLD are highlighted.

Title: New developments in the epidemiology of cancer prognosis: traditional and molecular predictors of treatment response and survival. Content: There have been numerous epidemiologic investigations to determine factors that may affect cancer risk. There is also a rich tradition of evaluating potential somatic changes in the cancer itself to predict recurrence and/or mortality after diagnosis. However, there has been relatively little

Title: Pulmonologist involvement, stage-specific treatment, and survival in adults with non-small cell lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Content: RATIONALE Up to 80% of patients with lung cancer have comorbid chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Many of them are poor candidates for stage-specific lung cancer treatment due to diminished lung function and poor functional status, and many forego treatment. The negative effect of COPD may be moderated by pulmonologist-guided management. OBJECTIVES This study examined the association between pulmonologist management and the probability of receiving the recommended stage-specific treatment modality and overall survival among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with preexisting COPD. METHODS Early- and advanced-stage NSCLC cases diagnosed between 2002 and 2005 with a prior COPD diagnosis (3-24 months before NSCLC diagnosis) were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results tumor registry data linked to Medicare claims. Study outcomes included receipt of recommended stage-specific treatment (surgical resection for early-stage NSCLC and chemotherapy for advanced-stage NSCLC [advNSCLC]) and overall survival. Pulmonologist management was considered present if one or more Evaluation and Management visit claims with pulmonologist specialty were observed within 6 months after NSCLC diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate logistic regression tested association between pulmonologist management and treatment received. Cox proportional hazard models examined the independent association between pulmonologist care and mortality. Two-stage residual inclusion instrumental variable (2SRI-IV) analyses tested and adjusted for potential confounding based on unobserved factors or measurement error. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS The cohorts included 5,488 patients with early-stage NSCLC and 6,426 patients with advNSCLC disease with preexisting COPD. Pulmonologist management was recorded for 54.9% of patients with early stage NSCLC and 35.7% of patients with advNSCLC. Of those patients with pulmonologist involvement, 58.5% of patients with early NSCLC received surgical resection, and 43.6% of patients with advNSCLC received chemotherapy. Pulmonologist management post NSCLC diagnosis was associated with increased surgical resection rates (odds ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.45) for early NSCLC and increased chemotherapy rates (odds ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-2.10) for advNSCLC. Pulmonologist management was also associated with reduced mortality risk for patients with early-stage NSCLC but not AdvNSCLC. CONCLUSIONS Pulmonologist management had a positive association with rates of stage-specific treatment in both groups and overall survival in early-stage NSCLC. These results provide preliminary support for the recently published guidelines emphasizing the role of pulmonologists in lung cancer management.

Title: Self-harm in prisons in England and Wales: an epidemiological study of prevalence, risk factors, clustering, and subsequent suicide Content: BACKGROUND Self-harm and suicide are common in prisoners, yet robust information on the full extent and characteristics of people at risk of self-harm is scant. Furthermore, understanding how frequently self-harm is followed by suicide, and in which prisoners this progression is most likely to happen, is important. We did a case-control study of all prisoners in England and Wales to ascertain the prevalence of self-harm in this population, associated risk factors, clustering effects, and risk of subsequent suicide after self-harm. METHODS Records of self-harm incidents in all prisons in England and Wales were gathered routinely between January, 2004, and December, 2009. We did a case-control comparison of prisoners who self-harmed and those who did not between January, 2006, and December, 2009. We also used a Bayesian approach to look at clustering of people who self-harmed. Prisoners who self-harmed and subsequently died by suicide in prison were compared with other inmates who self-harmed. FINDINGS 139,195 self-harm incidents were recorded in 26,510 individual prisoners between 2004 and 2009; 5-6% of male prisoners and 20-24% of female inmates self-harmed every year. Self-harm rates were more than ten times higher in female prisoners than in male inmates. Repetition of self-harm was common, particularly in women and teenage girls, in whom a subgroup of 102 prisoners accounted for 17,307 episodes. In both sexes, self-harm was associated with younger age, white ethnic origin, prison type, and a life sentence or being unsentenced; in female inmates, committing a violent offence against an individual was also a factor. Substantial evidence was noted of clustering in time and location of prisoners who self-harmed (adjusted intra-class correlation 0·15, 95% CI 0·11-0·18). 109 subsequent suicides in prison were reported in individuals who self-harmed; the risk was higher in those who self-harmed than in the general prison population, and more than half the deaths occurred within a month of self-harm. Risk factors for suicide after self-harm in male prisoners were older age and a previous self-harm incident of high or moderate lethality; in female inmates, a history of more than five self-harm incidents within a year was associated with subsequent suicide. INTERPRETATION The burden of self-harm in prisoners is substantial, particularly in women. Self-harm in prison is associated with subsequent suicide in this setting. Prevention and treatment of self-harm in prisoners is an essential component of suicide prevention in prisons. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, National Offender Management Service, and Department of Health.

Title: Alzheimer’s Disease Risk Gene CD33 Inhibits Microglial Uptake of Amyloid Beta Content: The transmembrane protein CD33 is a sialic acid-binding immunoglobulin-like lectin that regulates innate immunity but has no known functions in the brain. We have previously shown that the CD33 gene is a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here, we observed increased expression of CD33 in microglial cells in AD brain. The minor allele of the CD33 SNP rs3865444, which confers protection against AD, was associated with reductions in both CD33 expression and insoluble amyloid beta 42 (Aβ42) levels in AD brain. Furthermore, the numbers of CD33-immunoreactive microglia were positively correlated with insoluble Aβ42 levels and plaque burden in AD brain. CD33 inhibited uptake and clearance of Aβ42 in microglial cell cultures. Finally, brain levels of insoluble Aβ42 as well as amyloid plaque burden were markedly reduced in APP(Swe)/PS1(ΔE9)/CD33(-/-) mice. Therefore, CD33 inactivation mitigates Aβ pathology and CD33 inhibition could represent a novel therapy for AD.

Title: The role of epigenetics in aging and autoimmunity. Content: The decline in immunocompetence with age is accompanied by the increase in the incidence of autoimmune diseases. Aging of the immune system, or immunosenescence, is characterized by a decline of both T and B cell function, and paradoxically the presence of low-grade chronic inflammation. There is growing evidence that epigenetics, the study of inherited changes in gene expression that are not encoded by the DNA sequence itself, changes with aging. Interestingly, emerging evidence suggests a key role for epigenetics in human pathologies, including inflammatory and neoplastic disorders. Here, we will review the potential mechanisms that contribute to the increase in autoimmune responses in aging. In particular, we will discuss how epigenetic alterations, especially DNA methylation and histone acetylation, are accumulated during aging and how these events contribute to autoimmunity risk.

Title: Obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cancer: the insulin and IGF connection. Content: Epidemiological studies suggest a positive association between obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) with the risk of cancer and cancer-related mortality. Insulin resistance, hyperinsulinemia, increased levels of IGF, elevated levels of steroid and peptide hormones, and inflammatory markers appear to play a role in the connection between these different diseases. Medications, such as metformin and exogenous insulin, used to treat T2D may affect the risk of cancer and cancer-related mortality. Newer therapies targeting the insulin and IGF1 systems are being developed for use in cancer therapy.

Title: Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: assessing what we really know. Content: High doses of ionizing radiation clearly produce deleterious consequences in humans, including, but not exclusively, cancer induction. At very low radiation doses the situation is much less clear, but the risks of low-dose radiation are of societal importance in relation to issues as varied as screening tests for cancer, the future of nuclear power, occupational radiation exposure, frequent-flyer risks, manned space exploration, and radiological terrorism. We review the difficulties involved in quantifying the risks of low-dose radiation and address two specific questions. First, what is the lowest dose of x- or gamma-radiation for which good evidence exists of increased cancer risks in humans? The epidemiological data suggest that it is approximately 10-50 mSv for an acute exposure and approximately 50-100 mSv for a protracted exposure. Second, what is the most appropriate way to extrapolate such cancer risk estimates to still lower doses? Given that it is supported by experimentally grounded, quantifiable, biophysical arguments, a linear extrapolation of cancer risks from intermediate to very low doses currently appears to be the most appropriate methodology. This linearity assumption is not necessarily the most conservative approach, and it is likely that it will result in an underestimate of some radiation-induced cancer risks and an overestimate of others.

Title: Prospective Study of One Million Deaths in India: Rationale, Design, and Validation Results Content: Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. This report here is on the rationale, design, and implementation of the worldâ€™s largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. Nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households will be monitored (for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. be addressed. This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens Indiaâ€™s flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously.[PLoS Medicine, February 2006.]

Title: The association between common physical impairments and dementia in low and middle income countries, and, among people with dementia, their association with cognitive function and disability. A 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based study. Content: OBJECTIVE Chronic physical comorbidity is common in dementia. However, there is an absence of evidence to support good practice guidelines for attention to these problems. We aimed to study the extent of this comorbidity and its impact on cognitive function and disability in population-based studies in low and middle income countries, where chronic diseases and impairments are likely to be both common and undertreated. METHODS A multicentre cross-sectional survey of all over 65 year old residents (n = 15 022) in 11 catchment areas in China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. We estimated the prevalence of pain, incontinence, hearing and visual impairments, mobility impairment and undernutrition according to the presence of dementia and its severity, and, among those with dementia, the independent contribution of these impairments to cognitive function and disability, adjusting for age, gender, education and dementia severity. RESULTS Incontinence, hearing impairment, mobility impairment and undernutrition were consistently linearly associated with the presence of dementia and its severity across regions. Among people with dementia, incontinence, hearing impairment and mobility impairment were independently associated with disability in all regions while the contributions of pain, visual impairment and undernutrition were inconsistent. Only hearing impairment made a notable independent contribution to cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS There is an urgent need for clinical trials of the feasibility, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of regular physical health checks and remediation of identified pathologies, given the considerable comorbidity identified in our population based studies, and the strong evidence for independent impact upon functioning.

Title: Whole genomes redefine the mutational landscape of pancreatic cancer Content: Pancreatic cancer remains one of the most lethal of malignancies and a major health burden. We performed whole-genome sequencing and copy number variation (CNV) analysis of 100 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs). Chromosomal rearrangements leading to gene disruption were prevalent, affecting genes known to be important in pancreatic cancer (TP53, SMAD4, CDKN2A, ARID1A and ROBO2) and new candidate drivers of pancreatic carcinogenesis (KDM6A and PREX2). Patterns of structural variation (variation in chromosomal structure) classified PDACs into 4 subtypes with potential clinical utility: the subtypes were termed stable, locally rearranged, scattered and unstable. A significant proportion harboured focal amplifications, many of which contained druggable oncogenes (ERBB2, MET, FGFR1, CDK6, PIK3R3 and PIK3CA), but at low individual patient prevalence. Genomic instability co-segregated with inactivation of DNA maintenance genes (BRCA1, BRCA2 or PALB2) and a mutational signature of DNA damage repair deficiency. Of 8 patients who received platinum therapy, 4 of 5 individuals with these measures of defective DNA maintenance responded.

Title: Probable person to person transmission of novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in Eastern China, 2013: epidemiological investigation Content: OBJECTIVE To determine whether the novel avian influenza H7N9 virus can transmit from person to person and its efficiency. DESIGN Epidemiological investigations conducted after a family cluster of two patients with avian H7N9 in March 2013. SETTING Wuxi, Eastern China. PARTICIPANTS Two patients, their close contacts, and relevant environments. Samples from the patients and environments were collected and tested by real time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), viral culture, and haemagglutination inhibition assay. Any contacts who became ill had samples tested for avian H7N9 by rRT-PCR. Paired serum samples were obtained from contacts for serological testing by haemagglutination inhibition assays. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES Clinical data, history of exposure before the onset of illnesses, and results of laboratory testing of pathogens and further analysis of sequences and phylogenetic tree to isolated strains. RESULTS The index patient became ill five to six days after his last exposure to poultry. The second patient, his daughter aged 32, who provided unprotected bedside care in the hospital, had no known exposure to poultry. She developed symptoms six days after her last contact with her father. Two strains were isolated successfully from the two patients. Genome sequence and analyses of phylogenetic trees showed that both viruses were almost genetically identical. Forty three close contacts of both patients were identified. One had mild illness but had negative results for avian H7N9 by rRT-PCR. All 43 close contacts tested negative for haemagglutination inhibition antibodies specific for avian H7N9. CONCLUSIONS The infection of the daughter probably resulted from contact with her father (the index patient) during unprotected exposure, suggesting that in this cluster the virus was able to transmit from person to person. The transmissibility was limited and non-sustainable.

Title: Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital Content: In this paper we review the associations between maternal and child undernutrition with human capital and risk of adult diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We analysed data from five long-standing prospective cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa and noted that indices of maternal and child undernutrition (maternal height, birthweight, intrauterine growth restriction, and weight, height, and body-mass index at 2 years according to the new WHO growth standards) were related to adult outcomes (height, schooling, income or assets, offspring birthweight, body-mass index, glucose concentrations, blood pressure). We undertook systematic reviews of studies from low-income and middle-income countries for these outcomes and for indicators related to blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, lung and immune function, cancers, osteoporosis, and mental illness. Undernutrition was strongly associated, both in the review of published work and in new analyses, with shorter adult height, less schooling, reduced economic productivity, and--for women--lower offspring birthweight. Associations with adult disease indicators were not so clear-cut. Increased size at birth and in childhood were positively associated with adult body-mass index and to a lesser extent with blood pressure values, but not with blood glucose concentrations. In our new analyses and in published work, lower birthweight and undernutrition in childhood were risk factors for high glucose concentrations, blood pressure, and harmful lipid profiles once adult body-mass index and height were adjusted for, suggesting that rapid postnatal weight gain--especially after infancy--is linked to these conditions. The review of published works indicates that there is insufficient information about long-term changes in immune function, blood lipids, or osteoporosis indicators. Birthweight is positively associated with lung function and with the incidence of some cancers, and undernutrition could be associated with mental illness. We noted that height-for-age at 2 years was the best predictor of human capital and that undernutrition is associated with lower human capital. We conclude that damage suffered in early life leads to permanent impairment, and might also affect future generations. Its prevention will probably bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits. Chronic diseases are especially common in undernourished children who experience rapid weight gain after infancy.

Title: The epidemiology of trachoma in Eastern Equatoria and Upper Nile States, southern Sudan. Content: OBJECTIVE Limited surveys and anecdotal data indicate that trachoma is endemic in the states of Eastern Equatoria and Upper Nile in southern Sudan. However, its magnitude and geographical distribution are largely unknown. We conducted surveys to ascertain the prevalence and geographical distribution of trachoma, and to identify targets for control interventions. METHODS Population-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in nine sites in southern Sudan between September 2001 and June 2004. Two-stage random cluster sampling with probability proportional to size was used to select the sample. Trachoma grading was done using the WHO simplified grading system. FINDINGS A total of 17 016 persons were examined, a response rate of 86.1% of the enumerated population. Prevalence of signs of active trachoma in children aged 1-9 years was: TF=53.7% (95% confidence interval (CI)=52.1-55.3); TI=42.7% (95% CI=41.2-44.2); TF and/or TI=64.1% (95% CI=62.5-65.5). Prevalence of trichiasis (TT) in children aged less than 15 years was 1.2% (95% CI=0.9-1.4), while TT prevalence in persons aged 15 years and above was 9.2% (95% CI=8.6-9.9). Women were more likely to have trichiasis compared to men (odds ratio (OR)=1.57; 95% CI=1.34-1.84). Tentative extrapolation to the states of Eastern Equatoria and Upper Nile estimates that there is a backlog of 178,250 (lower and upper bounds=156,027-205,995) persons requiring surgery and the entire population, estimated to be over 3.9 million, is in need of the SAFE strategy to control blinding trachoma. CONCLUSION Trachoma is a public health problem in all nine of the study sites surveyed. The unusually high prevalence of active trachoma and TT in children points to the severity of the problem. There is urgent need to implement trachoma control interventions in trachoma endemic regions of southern Sudan.

Title: Drinking pattern and mortality: the Italian Risk Factor and Life Expectancy pooling project. Content: PURPOSE To analyze the relationship between an aspect of drinking pattern (i.e., drinking with or without meals) and risk of all-cause and specific-cause mortality. METHODS The Risk Factors and Life Expectancy Study, is a pooling of a series of epidemiological studies conducted in Italy. Eight-thousand six-hundred and forty-seven men and 6521 women, age 30-59 at baseline, and free of cardiovascular disease, were followed for mortality from all causes, cardiovascular and noncardiovascular, during an average follow-up of 7 years. RESULTS Drinkers of wine outside meals exhibited higher death rates from all causes, noncardiovascular diseases, and cancer, as compared to drinkers of wine with meals. This association was independent from the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors measured at baseline and the amount of alcohol consumed and seemed to be stronger in women as compared to men. CONCLUSIONS The present results indicate that drinking patterns may have important health implications, and attention should be given to this aspect of alcohol use and its relationship to health outcomes. The relationship between alcohol consumption and disease has been the focus of intensive scientific investigation (1-9). Most studies to date, however, have limitations. A major drawback is that limited information has been collected regarding the complex issue of alcohol consumption. In many studies, ascertainment of alcohol consumption frequently focused only on quantity of alcohol consumed without considering the many different components of alcohol consumption, particularly drinking pattern (10-12). It has been hypothesized, and preliminary data support the notion, that drinking pattern could have important influences on determining the health effects of alcohol (13,14). The present study examines the relationship between one aspect of drinking pattern (drinking wine outside meals) and mortality in a large cohort of men and women.

Title: Global and regional risk of disabling sequelae from bacterial meningitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Content: Few data sources are available to assess the global and regional risk of sequelae from bacterial meningitis. We aimed to estimate the risks of major and minor sequelae caused by bacterial meningitis, estimate the distribution of the different types of sequelae, and compare risk by region and income. We systematically reviewed published papers from 1980 to 2008. Standard global burden of disease categories (cognitive deficit, bilateral hearing loss, motor deficit, seizures, visual impairment, hydrocephalus) were labelled as major sequelae. Less severe, minor sequelae (behavioural problems, learning difficulties, unilateral hearing loss, hypotonia, diplopia), and multiple impairments were also included. 132 papers were selected for inclusion. The median (IQR) risk of at least one major or minor sequela after hospital discharge was 19.9% (12.3-35.3%). The risk of at least one major sequela was 12.8% (7.2-21.1%) and of at least one minor sequela was 8.6% (4.4-15.3%). The median (IQR) risk of at least one major sequela was 24.7% (16.2-35.3%) in pneumococcal meningitis; 9.5% (7.1-15.3%) in Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and 7.2% (4.3-11.2%) in meningococcal meningitis. The most common major sequela was hearing loss (33.9%), and 19.7% had multiple impairments. In the random-effects meta-analysis, all-cause risk of a major sequela was twice as high in the African (pooled risk estimate 25.1% [95% CI 18.9-32.0%]) and southeast Asian regions (21.6% [95% CI 13.1-31.5%]) as in the European region (9.4% [95% CI 7.0-12.3%]; overall I(2)=89.5%, p<0.0001). Risks of long-term disabling sequelae were highest in low-income countries, where the burden of bacterial meningitis is greatest. Most reported sequelae could have been averted by vaccination with Hib, pneumococcal, and meningococcal vaccines.

Title: Statin use and risk of gallstone disease followed by cholecystectomy. Content: CONTEXT Gallstone disease is a leading cause of morbidity in western countries and carries a high economic burden. Statins decrease hepatic cholesterol biosynthesis and may therefore lower the risk of cholesterol gallstones by reducing the cholesterol concentration in the bile. Data on this association in humans are scarce. OBJECTIVE To study the association between the use of statins, fibrates, or other lipid-lowering agents and the risk of incident gallstone disease followed by cholecystectomy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Case-control analysis using the UK-based General Practice Research Database. Incident patients between 1994 and 2008 and 4 controls per each patient were identified and matched on age, sex, general practice, calendar time, and years of history in the database. The study population was 76% women and the mean (SD) age was 53.4 (15.0) years at the index date. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of developing gallstones followed by cholecystectomy in relation to exposure to lipid-lowering agents, stratified by exposure timing and duration. The ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were adjusted for smoking, body mass index, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and estrogen use. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE The adjusted OR (AOR) for developing gallstone disease followed by cholecystectomy in relation to exposure to lipid-lowering agents. RESULTS A total of 27,035 patients with cholecystectomy and 106,531 matched controls were identified, including 2396 patients and 8868 controls who had statin use. Compared with nonuse, current statin use (last prescription recorded within 90 days before the first-time diagnosis of the disease) was 1.0% for patients and 0.8% for controls (AOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.95-1.27) for 1 to 4 prescriptions; 2.6% vs 2.4% (AOR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.77-0.93) for 5 to 19 prescriptions, and 3.2% vs 3.7% (AOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.59-0.70) for 20 or more prescriptions. The AORs for current use of statins defined as 20 or more prescriptions were similar (around 0.6) across age, sex, and body mass index categories, and across the statin class. CONCLUSION Long-term use of statins was associated with a decreased risk of gallstones followed by cholecystectomy.

Title: Epidemiology of surgically managed pelvic organ prolapse and urinary incontinence. Content: OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of surgically managed pelvic organ prolapse and urinary incontinence in a population-based cohort, and to describe their clinical characteristics. METHODS Our retrospective cohort study included all patients undergoing surgical treatment for prolapse and incontinence during 1995; all were members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest, which included 149,554 women age 20 or older. A standardized data-collection form was used to review all inpatient and outpatient charts of the 395 women identified. Variables examined included age, ethnicity, height, weight, vaginal parity, smoking history, medical history, and surgical history, including the preoperative evaluation, procedure performed, and details of all prior procedures. Analysis included calculation of age-specific and cumulative incidences and determination of the number of primary operations compared with repeat operations performed for prolapse or incontinence. RESULTS The age-specific incidence increased with advancing age. The lifetime risk of undergoing a single operation for prolapse or incontinence by age 80 was 11.1%. Most patients were older, postmenopausal, parous, and overweight. Nearly half were current or former smokers and one-fifth had chronic lung disease. Reoperation was common (29.2% of cases), and the time intervals between repeat procedures decreased with each successive repair. CONCLUSION Pelvic floor dysfunction is a major health issue for older women, as shown by the 11.1% lifetime risk of undergoing a single operation for pelvic organ prolapse and urinary incontinence, as well as the large proportion of reoperations. Our results warrant further epidemiologic research in order to determine the etiology, natural history, and long-term treatment outcomes of these conditions.

Title: Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2 Content: Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.

Title: Age-Associated Sperm DNA Methylation Alterations: Possible Implications in Offspring Disease Susceptibility Content: Recent evidence demonstrates a role for paternal aging on offspring disease susceptibility. It is well established that various neuropsychiatric disorders (schizophrenia, autism, etc.), trinucleotide expansion associated diseases (myotonic dystrophy, Huntington's, etc.) and even some forms of cancer have increased incidence in the offspring of older fathers. Despite strong epidemiological evidence that these alterations are more common in offspring sired by older fathers, in most cases the mechanisms that drive these processes are unclear. However, it is commonly believed that epigenetics, and specifically DNA methylation alterations, likely play a role. In this study we have investigated the impact of aging on DNA methylation in mature human sperm. Using a methylation array approach we evaluated changes to sperm DNA methylation patterns in 17 fertile donors by comparing the sperm methylome of 2 samples collected from each individual 9-19 years apart. With this design we have identified 139 regions that are significantly and consistently hypomethylated with age and 8 regions that are significantly hypermethylated with age. A representative subset of these alterations have been confirmed in an independent cohort. A total of 117 genes are associated with these regions of methylation alterations (promoter or gene body). Intriguingly, a portion of the age-related changes in sperm DNA methylation are located at genes previously associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. While our data does not establish a causative relationship, it does raise the possibility that the age-associated methylation of the candidate genes that we observe in sperm might contribute to the increased incidence of neuropsychiatric and other disorders in the offspring of older males. However, further study is required to determine whether, and to what extent, a causative relationship exists.

Title: Sudden infant death syndrome. Content: Despite declines in prevalence during the past two decades, sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) continues to be the leading cause of death for infants aged between 1 month and 1 year in developed countries. Behavioural risk factors identified in epidemiological studies include prone and side positions for infant sleep, smoke exposure, soft bedding and sleep surfaces, and overheating. Evidence also suggests that pacifier use at sleep time and room sharing without bed sharing are associated with decreased risk of SIDS. Although the cause of SIDS is unknown, immature cardiorespiratory autonomic control and failure of arousal responsiveness from sleep are important factors. Gene polymorphisms relating to serotonin transport and autonomic nervous system development might make affected infants more vulnerable to SIDS. Campaigns for risk reduction have helped to reduce SIDS incidence by 50-90%. However, to reduce the incidence even further, greater strides must be made in reducing prenatal smoke exposure and implementing other recommended infant care practices. Continued research is needed to identify the pathophysiological basis of SIDS.

Title: Overweight in Celiac Disease: Prevalence, Clinical Characteristics, and Effect of a Gluten-Free Diet Content: BACKGROUND:It is well established that a minority of celiac patients present with “classic” symptoms due to malabsorption. However, few studies have focussed on the distribution of body mass index (BMI) in celiac populations and its relationship to clinical characteristics, or on its response to treatment. METHODS:We reviewed BMI measurements and other clinical and pathological characteristics from a database of 371 celiac patients diagnosed over a 10-yr period and seen by a single gastroenterologist. To assess response to gluten exclusion, we compared BMI at diagnosis and after 2 yr treatment in patients with serological support for dietary compliance. RESULTS:Mean BMI was 24.6 kg/m2 (range 16.3–43.5). Seventeen patients (5%) were underweight (BMI <18.5), 211 (57%) were normal, and 143 (39%) were overweight (BMI ≥25), including 48 (13% of all patients) in the obese range (BMI ≥30.0). There was a significant association between low BMI and female gender, history of diarrhea, reduced hemoglobin concentration, reduced bone mineral density (BMD), osteoporosis, and higher grades (subtotal/total) of villous atrophy. Of patients compliant with a gluten-free diet, 81% had gained weight after 2 yr, including 82% of initially overweight patients. CONCLUSIONS:Few celiac patients are underweight at diagnosis and a large minority is overweight; these are less likely to present with classical features of diarrhea and reduced hemoglobin. Failed or delayed diagnosis of celiac disease may reflect lack of awareness of this large subgroup. The increase in weight of already overweight patients after dietary gluten exclusion is a potential cause of morbidity, and the gluten-free diet as conventionally prescribed needs to be modified accordingly.

Title: Determination of Malaria Epidemiological Status in Iran’s Malarious Areas as Baseline Information for Implementation of Malaria Elimination Program in Iran Content: BACKGROUND According to willingness of the Ministry of Health, Iran and presence of appropriate conditions for disease elimination, national malaria control program decided to conduct a research to clarify malaria status in 2007 and to provide required information to perform the elimination program. This review is comprised of the basis of national malaria elimination program in vision of 2025, which was started in 2010. METHODS In this descriptive study, data were analyzed by applications of different variables at district level. All districts in the three south eastern provinces, in which malaria has local transmission, were considered. Malaria cases has been determined and studied based on the national malaria surveillance system. RESULTS Since vivax malaria is predominant in Sistan & Baluchestan Province, number of vivax cases is equal to malaria positive cases approximately. The important point is that Nikshahr contains the maximum number of local vivax cases in this province and the maximum number of falciparum cases is reported from Sarbaz district. Among all districts of Hormozgan Province, no case of autochthonous falciparum was detected except in Bandar Jask and one case in Minab. There was no case of autochthonous falciparum in Kerman Province, except in Kahnoj and Ghale Ganj that each of them had one case in 2007. CONCLUSION It appears that the report of locally transmitted cases in Iran is increasing over the past few years, before starting malaria elimination plan. Since the Afghan refugees started to return to their own country so the main source of reporting of imported malaria cases reduced and local cases would be demonstrated more clearly.

Title: Hepatitis C and human immunodeficiency virus infection. Content: In the United States, an estimated 200,000 persons are infected with both hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). As the lives of HIV-infected persons have been prolonged by use of highly active antiretroviral therapy, liver disease has emerged as an important, and in some settings, the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Human immunodeficiency virus infection appears to adversely affect all stages of hepatitis C infection, leading to increased viral persistence and accelerated progression of HCV-related liver disease. In turn, hepatitis C may affect the management of HIV infection, increasing the incidence of liver toxicity caused by antiretroviral medications. The medical management of hepatitis C in HIV-infected persons remains controversial, in part because of the complexity of both infections and potential drug interactions, but chiefly because there is so little published information. Nonetheless, the burden of liver disease is too high to delay management of HIV/HCV-coinfected persons while awaiting better data. Instead, the management of hepatitis C today must be based on data generated on persons without HIV and an understanding of both infections. Properly designed studies of therapy in HIV/HCV-coinfected persons are needed to help guide management of these patients in the future.

Title: Coronary heart disease in south Asians overseas: a review. Content: Coronary heart disease rates have been reported in several parts of the world to be unusually high in people originating from the Indian subcontinent. High coronary disease rates appear to be common to South Asian groups of different geographical origin, religion, and language. This presents a challenge to the understanding of coronary heart disease: the high rates in South Asians are not explained on the basis of elevated serum cholesterol, smoking or hypertension. Low plasma HDL cholesterol, high plasma triglyceride levels and high prevalence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes have been consistently found in South Asians overseas: this probably reflects an underlying state of insulin resistance. Further studies are needed to determine whether this metabolic disturbance can account for the high rates of coronary heart disease in South Asians, and to identify possibilities for prevention.

Title: Epigenetic therapy activates type I interferon signaling in murine ovarian cancer to reduce immunosuppression and tumor burden. Content: Ovarian cancer is the most lethal of all gynecological cancers, and there is an urgent unmet need to develop new therapies. Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is characterized by an immune suppressive microenvironment, and response of ovarian cancers to immune therapies has thus far been disappointing. We now find, in a mouse model of EOC, that clinically relevant doses of DNA methyltransferase and histone deacetylase inhibitors (DNMTi and HDACi, respectively) reduce the immune suppressive microenvironment through type I IFN signaling and improve response to immune checkpoint therapy. These data indicate that the type I IFN response is required for effective in vivo antitumorigenic actions of the DNMTi 5-azacytidine (AZA). Through type I IFN signaling, AZA increases the numbers of CD45+ immune cells and the percentage of active CD8+ T and natural killer (NK) cells in the tumor microenvironment, while reducing tumor burden and extending survival. AZA also increases viral defense gene expression in both tumor and immune cells, and reduces the percentage of macrophages and myeloid-derived suppressor cells in the tumor microenvironment. The addition of an HDACi to AZA enhances the modulation of the immune microenvironment, specifically increasing T and NK cell activation and reducing macrophages over AZA treatment alone, while further increasing the survival of the mice. Finally, a triple combination of DNMTi/HDACi plus the immune checkpoint inhibitor α-PD-1 provides the best antitumor effect and longest overall survival, and may be an attractive candidate for future clinical trials in ovarian cancer.

Title: Epidemiologic studies on Dengue in Santiago de Cuba, 1997. Content: A small, isolated outbreak of dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS) due to dengue virus type 2 (DEN-2) was documented in Santiago de Cuba on the island of Cuba beginning in January 1997. There were 205 DHF/DSS cases, all in persons older than age 15 years. All but three had evidence of a prior dengue infection, with the only known opportunity being the islandwide dengue virus type 1 (DEN-1) epidemic of 1977-1979. Virtually complete clinical and laboratory surveillance of overt disease was achieved. From December 1997 to January 1998, a random, age-stratified serum sample was obtained from 1,151 persons in 40 residential clusters in Santiago. Sera were tested for DEN-1 and DEN-2 neutralizing antibodies. The prevalence of DEN-2 antibodies in children age 15 years and under, born after the 1981 DEN-2 epidemic, was taken as the 1997 DEN-2 infection rate. This was adjusted slightly to accommodate observed cases, resulting in an estimated infection rate of 4.3%. Dengue fever and DHF/DSS attack rates were calculated from estimated total primary and secondary DEN-2 infections. Only 3% of 13,116 primary infections were overt. The DHF/DSS attack rate for adults of all ages was 420 per 10,000 secondary DEN-2 infections.

Title: Common Carotid Intima Media Thickness and Ankle-Brachial Pressure Index Correlate with Local but Not Global Atheroma Burden: A Cross Sectional Study Using Whole Body Magnetic Resonance Angiography Content: BACKGROUND Common carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and ankle brachial pressure index (ABPI) are used as surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, and have been shown to correlate with arterial stiffness, however their correlation with global atherosclerotic burden has not been previously assessed. We compare CIMT and ABPI with atheroma burden as measured by whole body magnetic resonance angiography (WB-MRA). METHODS 50 patients with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease were recruited. CIMT was measured using ultrasound while rest and exercise ABPI were performed. WB-MRA was performed in a 1.5T MRI scanner using 4 volume acquisitions with a divided dose of intravenous gadolinium gadoterate meglumine (Dotarem, Guerbet, FR). The WB-MRA data was divided into 31 anatomical arterial segments with each scored according to degree of luminal narrowing: 0 = normal, 1 = <50%, 2 = 50-70%, 3 = 70-99%, 4 = vessel occlusion. The segment scores were summed and from this a standardized atheroma score was calculated. RESULTS The atherosclerotic burden was high with a standardised atheroma score of 39.5±11. Common CIMT showed a positive correlation with the whole body atheroma score (β 0.32, p = 0.045), however this was due to its strong correlation with the neck and thoracic segments (β 0.42 p = 0.01) with no correlation with the rest of the body. ABPI correlated with the whole body atheroma score (β -0.39, p = 0.012), which was due to a strong correlation with the ilio-femoral vessels with no correlation with the thoracic or neck vessels. On multiple linear regression, no correlation between CIMT and global atheroma burden was present (β 0.13 p = 0.45), while the correlation between ABPI and atheroma burden persisted (β -0.45 p = 0.005). CONCLUSION ABPI but not CIMT correlates with global atheroma burden as measured by whole body contrast enhanced magnetic resonance angiography in a population with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease. However this is primarily due to a strong correlation with ilio-femoral atheroma burden.

Title: Cardiovascular protection with antihypertensive drugs in dialysis patients: systematic review and meta-analysis. Content: Epidemiological studies demonstrate that a lower blood pressure and decline in blood pressure over months or years are associated with higher mortality in dialysis patients. In contrast, randomized, controlled trials lack power to establish benefits of antihypertensive therapy. Patients on long-term dialysis participating in randomized, controlled trials and receiving antihypertensive drug therapy were the subject of this meta-analysis. Outcomes assessed were the hazard ratio of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in treated group compared with controls. Among 1202 patients who we identified in 5 studies, the overall benefit of antihypertensive therapy compared with the control or placebo group had a combined hazard ratio for cardiovascular events of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56 to 0.84) using a fixed-effects model and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.45 to 0.86) using a random-effects model. In a sensitivity analysis, we found that the hypertensive group had a pooled hazard ratio of 0.49 (95% CI: 0.35 to 0.67), but when normotensives were included in the trial, lesser cardiovascular protection was seen (pooled hazard ratio of 0.86 [95% CI: 0.67 to 1.12]). Test for heterogeneity between hypertensive and "normotensive-included" groups was significant (P<0.006). Similar results were seen for risk ratio for death and cardiovascular events. There was evidence of publication bias based on Egger's test and funnel plot. Randomized trials suggested a benefit of antihypertensive therapy among hemodialysis patients. Adequately powered randomized trials are required to confirm these observations, especially among those with hypertension.

Title: Natural variation in the parameters of innate immune cells is preferentially driven by genetic factors Content: The quantification and characterization of circulating immune cells provide key indicators of human health and disease. To identify the relative effects of environmental and genetic factors on variation in the parameters of innate and adaptive immune cells in homeostatic conditions, we combined standardized flow cytometry of blood leukocytes and genome-wide DNA genotyping of 1,000 healthy, unrelated people of Western European ancestry. We found that smoking, together with age, sex and latent infection with cytomegalovirus, were the main non-genetic factors that affected variation in parameters of human immune cells. Genome-wide association studies of 166 immunophenotypes identified 15 loci that showed enrichment for disease-associated variants. Finally, we demonstrated that the parameters of innate cells were more strongly controlled by genetic variation than were those of adaptive cells, which were driven by mainly environmental exposure. Our data establish a resource that will generate new hypotheses in immunology and highlight the role of innate immunity in susceptibility to common autoimmune diseases. Both environmental factors and genetic factors influence human immunity. Albert and colleagues leverage data from the Milieu Intérieur Consortium to comprehensively describe the effects of lifestyle, environment and genetics on human innate and adaptive immunity.

Title: Risk of hospitalization or death from ischemic heart disease among British vegetarians and nonvegetarians: results from the EPIC-Oxford cohort study. Content: BACKGROUND Few previous prospective studies have examined differences in incident ischemic heart disease (IHD) risk between vegetarians and nonvegetarians. OBJECTIVE The objective was to examine the association of a vegetarian diet with risk of incident (nonfatal and fatal) IHD. DESIGN A total of 44,561 men and women living in England and Scotland who were enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Oxford study, of whom 34% consumed a vegetarian diet at baseline, were part of the analysis. Incident cases of IHD were identified through linkage with hospital records and death certificates. Serum lipids and blood pressure measurements were available for 1519 non cases, who were matched to IHD cases by sex and age. IHD risk by vegetarian status was estimated by using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS After an average follow-up of 11.6 y, there were 1235 IHD cases (1066 hospital admissions and 169 deaths). Compared with nonvegetarians, vegetarians had a lower mean BMI [in kg/m(2); -1.2 (95% CI: -1.3, -1.1)], non-HDL-cholesterol concentration [-0.45 (95% CI: -0.60, -0.30) mmol/L], and systolic blood pressure [-3.3 (95% CI: -5.9, -0.7) mm Hg]. Vegetarians had a 32% lower risk (HR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.81) of IHD than did nonvegetarians, which was only slightly attenuated after adjustment for BMI and did not differ materially by sex, age, BMI, smoking, or the presence of IHD risk factors. CONCLUSION Consuming a vegetarian diet was associated with lower IHD risk, a finding that is probably mediated by differences in non-HDL cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure.

Title: The Global Spread of Hepatitis C Virus 1a and 1b: A Phylodynamic and Phylogeographic Analysis Content: BACKGROUND Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to affect 130-180 million people worldwide. Although its origin is unknown, patterns of viral diversity suggest that HCV genotype 1 probably originated from West Africa. Previous attempts to estimate the spatiotemporal parameters of the virus, both globally and regionally, have suggested that epidemic HCV transmission began in 1900 and grew steadily until the late 1980s. However, epidemiological data suggest that the expansion of HCV may have occurred after the Second World War. The aim of our study was to elucidate the timescale and route of the global spread of HCV. METHODS AND FINDINGS We show that the rarely sequenced HCV region (E2P7NS2) is more informative for molecular epidemiology studies than the more commonly used NS5B region. We applied phylodynamic methods to a substantial set of new E2P7NS2 and NS5B sequences, together with all available global HCV sequences with information in both of these genomic regions, in order to estimate the timescale and nature of the global expansion of the most prevalent HCV subtypes, 1a and 1b. We showed that transmission of subtypes 1a and 1b "exploded" between 1940 and 1980, with the spread of 1b preceding that of 1a by at least 16 y (95% confidence interval 15-17). Phylogeographic analysis of all available NS5B sequences suggests that HCV subtypes 1a and 1b disseminated from the developed world to the developing countries. CONCLUSIONS The evolutionary rate of HCV appears faster than previously suggested. The global spread of HCV coincided with the widespread use of transfused blood and blood products and with the expansion of intravenous drug use but slowed prior to the wide implementation of anti-HCV screening. Differences in the transmission routes associated with subtypes 1a and 1b provide an explanation of the relatively earlier expansion of 1b. Our data show that the most plausible route of the HCV dispersal was from developed countries to the developing world. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Title: Prevalence, risk factors, and uptake of interventions for sexually transmitted infections in Britain: findings from the National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal) Content: BACKGROUND Population-based estimates of prevalence, risk distribution, and intervention uptake inform delivery of control programmes for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We undertook the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) after implementation of national sexual health strategies, and describe the epidemiology of four STIs in Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales) and the uptake of interventions. METHODS Between Sept 6, 2010 and Aug 31, 2012 , we did a probability sample survey of 15,162 women and men aged 16-74 years in Britain. Participants were interviewed with computer-assisted face-to-face and self-completion questionnaires. Urine from a sample of participants aged 16-44 years who reported at least one sexual partner over the lifetime was tested for the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis, type-specific human papillomavirus (HPV), Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and HIV antibody. We describe age-specific and sex-specific prevalences of infection and intervention uptake, in relation to demographic and behavioural factors, and explore changes since Natsal-1 (1990-91) and Natsal-2 (1999-2001). FINDINGS Of 8047 eligible participants invited to provide a urine sample, 4828 (60%) agreed. We excluded 278 samples, leaving 4550 (94%) participants with STI test results. Chlamydia prevalence was 1·5% (95% CI 1·1-2·0) in women and 1·1% (0·7-1·6) in men. Prevalences in individuals aged 16-24 years were 3·1% (2·2-4·3) in women and 2·3% (1·5-3·4) in men. Area-level deprivation and higher numbers of partners, especially without use of condoms, were risk factors. However, 60·4% (45·5-73·7) of chlamydia in women and 43·3% (25·9-62·5) in men was in individuals who had had one partner in the past year. Among sexually active 16-24-year-olds, 54·2% (51·4-56·9) of women and 34·6% (31·8-37·4) of men reported testing for chlamydia in the past year, with testing higher in those with more partners. High-risk HPV was detected in 15·9% (14·4-17·5) of women, similar to in Natsal-2. Coverage of HPV catch-up vaccination was 61·5% (58·2-64·7). Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in women aged 18-20 years was lower in Natsal-3 than Natsal-2 (5·8% [3·9-8·6] vs 11·3% [6·8-18·2]; age-adjusted odds ratio 0·44 [0·21-0·94]). Gonorrhoea (<0·1% prevalence in women and men) and HIV (0·1% prevalence in women and 0·2% in men) were uncommon and restricted to participants with recognised high-risk factors. Since Natsal-2, substantial increases were noted in attendance at sexual health clinics (from 6·7% to 21·4% in women and from 7·7% to 19·6% in men) and HIV testing (from 8·7% to 27·6% in women and from 9·2% to 16·9% in men) in the past 5 years. INTERPRETATION STIs were distributed heterogeneously, requiring general and infection-specific interventions. Increases in testing and attendance at sexual health clinics, especially in people at highest risk, are encouraging. However, STIs persist both in individuals accessing and those not accessing services. Our findings provide empirical evidence to inform future sexual health interventions and services. FUNDING Grants from the UK Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust, with support from the Economic and Social Research Council and the Department of Health.

Title: Headache, migraine, and structural brain lesions and function: population based Epidemiology of Vascular Ageing-MRI study Content: OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association of overall and specific headaches with volume of white matter hyperintensities, brain infarcts, and cognition. DESIGN Population based, cross sectional study. SETTING Epidemiology of Vascular Ageing study, Nantes, France. PARTICIPANTS 780 participants (mean age 69, 58.5% women) with detailed headache assessment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Brain scans were evaluated for volume of white matter hyperintensities (by fully automated imaging processing) and for classification of infarcts (by visual reading with a standardised assessment grid). Cognitive function was assessed by a battery of tests including the mini-mental state examination. RESULTS 163 (20.9%) participants reported a history of severe headache and 116 had migraine, of whom 17 (14.7%) reported aura symptoms. An association was found between any history of severe headache and increasing volume of white matter hyperintensities. The adjusted odds ratio of being in the highest third for total volume of white matter hyperintensities was 2.0 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 3.1, P for trend 0.002) for participants with any history of severe headache when compared with participants without severe headache being in the lowest third. The association pattern was similar for all headache types. Migraine with aura was the only headache type strongly associated with volume of deep white matter hyperintensities (highest third odds ratio 12.4, 1.6 to 99.4, P for trend 0.005) and with brain infarcts (3.4, 1.2 to 9.3). The location of infarcts was predominantly outside the cerebellum and brain stem. Evidence was lacking for cognitive impairment for any headache type with or without brain lesions. CONCLUSIONS In this population based study, any history of severe headache was associated with an increased volume of white matter hyperintensities. Migraine with aura was the only headache type associated with brain infarcts. Evidence that headache of any type by itself or in combination with brain lesions was associated with cognitive impairment was lacking.

Title: The Antiretroviral Therapy in Lower Income Countries (ART-LINC) Collaboration and ART Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) groups Summary Content: BACKGROUND Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naïve adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Title: Epidemiological expansion, structural studies, and clinical challenges of new β-lactamases from gram-negative bacteria. Content: β-Lactamase evolution presents to the infectious disease community a major challenge in the treatment of infections caused by multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacteria. Because over 1,000 of these naturally occurring β-lactamases exist, attempts to correlate structure and function have become daunting. Although new enzymes in the extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) families are frequently identified, the older CTX-M-14 and CTX-M-15 enzymes have become the most prevalent ESBLs in global surveillance. Carbapenemases with either serine-based or zinc-facilitated hydrolysis mechanisms are posing some of the most critical problems. Most geographical regions now report KPC serine carbapenemases and the metallo-β-lactamases VIM, IMP, and NDM-1, even though NDM-1 was only recently identified. The rapid emergence of these newer enzymes, with multiple β-lactamases appearing in a single organism, makes the design of new β-lactamase inactivators or β-lactamase-stable β-lactams all the more difficult. Combination therapy will likely be required to counteract the continuing evolution of these insidious enzymes in multidrug-resistant pathogens.

Title: Total atherosclerotic burden by whole body magnetic resonance angiography predicts major adverse cardiovascular events. Content: OBJECTIVE The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between the Total Atherosclerotic Score (TAS), a measurement of the overall atherosclerotic burden of the arterial tree by whole body magnetic resonance angiography (WBMRA), and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as cardiac death, myocardial infarction, stroke and/or coronary revascularization, assuming that TAS predicts MACE. METHODS AND RESULTS 305 randomly selected 70 year-old subjects (47% women) underwent WBMRA. Their atherosclerotic burden was evaluated and TAS > 0, that is atherosclerotic changes, were found in 68% of subjects. During follow-up (mean 4.8 years), MACE occurred in 25 subjects (8.2%). Adjusting for multiple risk factors, TAS was associated with MACE (OR 8.86 for any degree of vessel lumen abnormality, 95%CI 1.14-69.11, p = 0.037). In addition, TAS improved discrimination and reclassification when added to the Framingham risk score (FRS), and ROC (Receiver Operator Curve) increased from 0.681 to 0.750 (p = 0.0421). CONCLUSION In a population-based sample of 70 year old men and women WBMRA, with TAS, predicted MACE independently of major cardiovascular risk factors.

Title: Epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus blood and skin and soft tissue infections in the US military health system, 2005-2010. Content: CONTEXT Rates of hospital-onset methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are reported as decreasing, but recent rates of community-onset S. aureus infections are less known. OBJECTIVES To characterize the overall and annual incidence rates of community-onset and hospital-onset S. aureus bacteremia and skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) in a national health care system and to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of S. aureus bacteremia and SSTIs and the proportion due to MRSA. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Observational study of all Department of Defense TRICARE beneficiaries from January 2005 through December 2010. Medical record databases were used to identify and classify all annual first-positive S. aureus blood and wound or abscess cultures as methicillin-susceptible S. aureus or MRSA, and as community-onset or hospital-onset infections (isolates collected >3 days after hospital admission). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Unadjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years of observation, the proportion of infections that was due to MRSA, and annual trends for 2005 through 2010 (examined using the Spearman rank correlation test or the Mantel-Haenszel χ2 test for linear trend). RESULTS During 56 million person-years (nonactive duty: 47 million person-years; active duty: 9 million person-years), there were 2643 blood and 80,281 wound or abscess annual first-positive S. aureus cultures. Annual incidence rates varied from 3.6 to 6.0 per 100,000 person-years for S. aureus bacteremia and 122.7 to 168.9 per 100,000 person-years for S. aureus SSTIs. The annual incidence rates for community-onset MRSA bacteremia decreased from 1.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 1.5-2.0 per 100,000 person-years) in 2005 to 1.2 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.9-1.4 per 100,000 person-years) in 2010 (P = .005 for trend). The annual incidence rates for hospital-onset MRSA bacteremia also decreased from 0.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.6-0.9 per 100,000 person-years) in 2005 to 0.4 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.3-0.5 per 100,000 person-years) in 2010 (P = .005 for trend). Concurrently, the proportion of community-onset SSTI due to MRSA peaked at 62% in 2006 before decreasing annually to 52% in 2010 (P < .001 for trend). CONCLUSION In the Department of Defense population consisting of men and women of all ages from across the United States, the rates of both community-onset and hospital-onset MRSA bacteremia decreased in parallel, while the proportion of community-onset SSTIs due to MRSA has more recently declined.

Title: Candida albicans-Staphylococcus aureus polymicrobial peritonitis modulates host innate immunity. Content: Despite advances in medical device fabrication and antimicrobial treatment therapies, fungal-bacterial polymicrobial peritonitis remains a serious complication for surgery patients, those on peritoneal dialysis, and the critically ill. Using a murine model of peritonitis, we have demonstrated that monomicrobial infection with Candida albicans or Staphylococcus aureus is nonlethal. However, coinfection with these same doses leads to a 40% mortality rate and increased microbial burden in the spleen and kidney by day 1 postinfection. Using a multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we have also identified a unique subset of innate proinflammatory cytokines (interleukin-6, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, keratinocyte chemoattractant, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α) that are significantly increased during polymicrobial versus monomicrobial peritonitis, leading to increased inflammatory infiltrate into the peritoneum and target organs. Treatment of coinfected mice with the cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor indomethacin reduces the infectious burden, proinflammatory cytokine production, and inflammatory infiltrate while simultaneously preventing any mortality. Further experiments demonstrated that the immunomodulatory eicosanoid prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) is synergistically increased during coinfection compared to monomicrobial infection; indomethacin treatment also decreased elevated PGE2 levels. Furthermore, addition of exogenous PGE2 into the peritoneal cavity during infection overrode the protection provided by indomethacin and restored the increased mortality and microbial burden. Importantly, these studies highlight the ability of fungal-bacterial coinfection to modulate innate inflammatory events with devastating consequences to the host.

Title: Depressive symptoms and physical decline in community-dwelling older persons. Content: CONTEXT Significant symptoms of depression are common in the older community-dwelling population. Although depressive symptoms and disability may commonly occur in the same person, whether depressive symptoms contribute to subsequent functional decline has not been elucidated. OBJECTIVE To determine whether depressive symptoms in older persons increase the risk of subsequent decline in physical function as measured by objective performance-based tests. DESIGN A 4-year prospective cohort study. SETTING The communities of Iowa and Washington counties, Iowa. PARTICIPANTS A total of 1286 persons aged 71 years and older who completed a short battery of physical performance tests in 1988 and again 4 years later. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Baseline depressive symptoms were assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. Physical performance tests included an assessment of standing balance, a timed 2.4-m (8-ft) walk, and a timed test of 5 repetitions of rising from a chair and sitting down. RESULTS After adjustment for baseline performance score, health status, and sociodemographic factors, increasing levels of depressive symptoms were predictive of greater decline in physical performance over 4 years (odds ratio for decline in those with depressed mood vs those without, 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-2.34). Even among those at the high end of the functional spectrum, who reported no disability, the severity of depressive symptoms predicted subsequent decline in physical performance (odds ratio for decline, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08). CONCLUSIONS This study provides evidence that older persons who report depressive symptoms are at higher risk of subsequent physical decline. These results suggest that prevention or reduction of depressed mood could play a role in reducing functional decline in older persons.

Title: IQ and non-clinical psychotic symptoms in 12-year-olds: results from the ALSPAC birth cohort Content: BACKGROUND Non-clinical psychotic symptoms appear common in children, but it is possible that a proportion of reported symptoms result from misinterpretation. There is a well-established association between pre-morbid low IQ score and schizophrenia. Psychosis-like symptoms in children may also be a risk factor for psychotic disorder but their relationship with IQ is unclear. AIMS To investigate the prevalence, nature and frequency of psychosis-like symptoms in 12-year-old children and study their relationship with IQ. METHOD Longitudinal study using the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. A total of 6455 children completed screening questions for 12 psychotic symptoms followed by a semi-structured clinical assessment. IQ was assessed at 8 years of age using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (3rd UK edition). RESULTS The 6-month period prevalence for one or more symptoms was 13.7% (95% CI 12.8-14.5). After adjustment for confounding variables, there was a non-linear association between IQ score and psychosis-like symptoms, such that only those with below average IQ score had an increased risk of reporting such symptoms. CONCLUSIONS Non-clinical psychotic symptoms occur in a significant proportion of 12-year-olds. Symptoms are associated with low IQ and also less strongly with a high IQ score. The pattern of association with IQ differs from that observed in schizophrenia.

Title: The prevention of type 2 diabetes Content: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) affects more than 7% of adults in the US and leads to substantial personal and economic burden. In prediabetic states insulin secretion and action—potential targets of preventive interventions—are impaired. In trials lifestyle modification (i.e. weight loss and exercise) has proven effective in preventing incident T2DM in high-risk groups, although weight loss has the greatest effect. Various medications (e.g. metformin, thiazolidinediones and acarbose) can also prevent or delay T2DM. Whether diabetes-prevention strategies also ultimately prevent the development of diabetic vascular complications is unknown, but cardiovascular risk factors are favorably affected. Preventive strategies that can be implemented in routine clinical settings have been developed and evaluated. Widespread application has, however, been limited by local financial considerations, even though cost-effectiveness might be achieved at the population level.

Title: Cost effectiveness of ward based non-invasive ventilation for acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: economic analysis of randomised controlled trial. Content: OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost effectiveness of standard treatment with and without the addition of ward based non-invasive ventilation in patients admitted to hospital with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. DESIGN Incremental cost effectiveness analysis of a randomised controlled trial. SETTING Medical wards in 14 hospitals in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS The trial comprised 236 patients admitted to hospital with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and mild to moderate acidosis (pH 7.25-7.35) secondary to respiratory failure. The economic analysis compared the costs of treatment that these patients received after randomisation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Incremental cost per in-hospital death. RESULTS 24/118 died in the group receiving standard treatment and 12/118 in the group receiving non-invasive ventilation (P=0.05). Allocation to the group receiving non-invasive ventilation was associated with a reduction in costs of 49362 pounds sterling (78741 dollars; 73109 euros), mainly through reduced use of intensive care units. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was -645 pounds sterling per death avoided (95% confidence interval -2310 pounds sterling to 386 pounds sterling), indicating a dominant (more effective and less costly) strategy. Modelling of these data indicates that a typical UK hospital providing a non-invasive ventilation service will avoid six deaths and three to nine admissions to intensive care units per year, with an associated cost reduction of 12000-53000 pounds sterling per year. CONCLUSIONS Non-invasive ventilation is a highly cost effective treatment that both reduced total costs and improved mortality in hospital.

Title: Drug-resistant Salmonella in the United States: an epidemiologic perspective. Content: Salmonellosis poses a health problem of large proportions in the United States. Annually, it accounts for more than 40,000 reported cases, 500 deaths, and financial costs well in excess of $50 million. Antimicrobial resistance is increasing in Salmonella strains, a finding that has important public health implications. Although the chain of transmission of the bacteria is often complex, combined epidemiologic and laboratory studies with the use of new methods in molecular biology make it possible to trace antimicrobial-resistant salmonellae to their primary source--foods of animal origin. These studies suggest that the antimicrobial drugs to which food animals are exposed provide selective pressure that leads to the appearance and persistence of resistant strains.

Title: Atopy risk in infants and children in relation to early exposure to fish, oily fish, or long-chain omega-3 fatty acids: a systematic review. Content: There are two main families of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), the n-6 and the n-3 families. It has been suggested that there is a causal relationship between n-6 PUFA intake and allergic disease, and there are biologically plausible mechanisms, involving eicosanoid mediators of the n-6 PUFA arachidonic acid, that could explain this. Fish and fish oils are sources of long-chain n-3 PUFAs and these fatty acids act to oppose the actions of n-6 PUFAs. Thus, it is considered that n-3 PUFAs will protect against atopic sensitization and against the clinical manifestations of atopy. Evidence to examine this has been acquired from epidemiologic studies investigating associations between fish intake in pregnancy, lactation, infancy, and childhood, and atopic outcomes in infants and children and from intervention studies with fish oil supplements in pregnancy, lactation, infancy, and childhood, and atopic outcomes in infants and children. All five epidemiological studies investigating the effect of maternal fish intake during pregnancy on atopic or allergic outcomes in infants/children of those pregnancies concluded protective associations. One study investigating the effects of maternal fish intake during lactation did not observe any significant associations. The evidence from epidemiological studies investigating the effects of fish intake during infancy and childhood on atopic outcomes in those infants or children is inconsistent, although the majority of the studies (nine of 14) showed a protective effect of fish intake during infancy or childhood on atopic outcomes in those infants/children. Fish oil supplementation during pregnancy and lactation or during infancy or childhood results in a higher n-3 PUFA status in the infants or children. Fish oil provision to pregnant women is associated with immunologic changes in cord blood and such changes may persist. Studies performed to date indicate that provision of fish oil during pregnancy may reduce sensitization to common food allergens and reduce prevalence and severity of atopic dermatitis in the first year of life, with a possible persistence until adolescence with a reduction in eczema, hay fever, and asthma. Fish oil provision to infants or children may be associated with immunologic changes in the blood but it is not clear if these are of clinical significance and whether they persist. Fish oil supplementation in infancy may decrease the risk of developing some manifestations of allergic disease, but this benefit may not persist as other factors come into play. It is not clear whether fish oil can be used to treat children with asthma as the two studies conducted to date give divergent results. Further studies of increased long-chain n-3 PUFA provision in during pregnancy, lactation, and infancy are needed to more clearly identify the immunologic and clinical effects in infants and children and to identify protective and therapeutic effects and their persistence.

Title: Epidemiology of sepsis and septic shock in critical care units: comparison between sepsis-2 and sepsis-3 populations using a national critical care database Content: Background New sepsis and septic shock definitions could change the epidemiology of sepsis because of differences in criteria. We therefore compared the sepsis populations identified by the old and new definitions. Methods We used a high-quality, national, intensive care unit (ICU) database of 654 918 consecutive admissions to 189 adult ICUs in England, from January 2011 to December 2015. Primary outcome was acute hospital mortality. We compared old (Sepsis-2) and new (Sepsis-3) incidence, outcomes, trends in outcomes, and predictive validity of sepsis and septic shock populations. Results From among 197 724 Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and 197 142 Sepsis-3 sepsis cases, we identified 153 257 Sepsis-2 septic shock and 39 262 Sepsis-3 septic shock cases. The extrapolated population incidence of Sepsis-3 sepsis and Sepsis-3 septic shock was 101.8 and 19.3 per 100 000 person-years, respectively, in 2015. Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and Sepsis-3 sepsis had similar incidence, similar mortality and showed significant risk-adjusted improvements in mortality over time. Sepsis-3 septic shock had a much higher Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, greater mortality and no risk-adjusted trends in mortality improvement compared with Sepsis-2 septic shock. ICU admissions identified either as Sepsis-3 sepsis or septic shock and as Sepsis-2 severe sepsis or septic shock had significantly greater risk-adjusted odds of death compared with non-sepsis admissions (P<0.001). The predictive validity was greatest for Sepsis-3 septic shock. Conclusions In an ICU database, compared with Sepsis-2, Sepsis-3 identifies a similar sepsis population with 92% overlap and much smaller septic shock population with improved predictive validity.

Title: Prevalence of late-life depression and gap in mental health service use across European regions. Content: Background We aimed to determine the prevalence and gap in use of mental health services for late-life depression in four European regions (Western Europe, Scandinavia, Southern Europe and Central and Eastern Europe) and explore socio-demographic, social and health-related factors associated with it. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study based on data from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Participants were a population-based sample of 28 796 persons (53% women, mean age 74 years old) residing in Europe. Mental health service use was estimated using information about the diagnosis or treatment for depression. Results The prevalence of late-life depression was 29% in the whole sample and was highest in Southern Europe (35%), followed by Central and Eastern Europe (32%), Western Europe (26%) and lowest in Scandinavia (17%). Factors that had the strongest association with depression were total number of chronic diseases, pain, limitations in instrumental activities of daily living, grip strength and cognitive impairment. The gap in mental health service use was 79%. Conclusions We suggest that interventions to decrease the burden of late-life depression should be targeted at individuals that are affected by chronic somatic comorbidities and are limited in mental and physical functioning. Promotion of help-seeking of older adults, de-stigmatization of mental illness and education of general practitioners could help decrease the gap in mental health service utilization.

Title: Pain attacks in non-complicated and complicated gallstone disease have a characteristic pattern and are accompanied by dyspepsia in most patients: the results of a prospective study. Content: OBJECTIVE The cardinal indication for surgical treatment of gallstones is pain attacks. However, following cholecystectomy, 20% of patients remain symptomatic. It is unclear to what extent post-cholecystectomy symptoms can be ascribed to persistence of preoperative symptoms or to new pathology. The pain and digestive pattern in gallstone patients has not been defined in a recent setting with ultrasonography as the diagnostic method. The aim of this study was to characterize a pain pattern that is typical for gallstone disease and to describe the extent of associated dyspepsia. MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 220 patients with symptomatic gallstone disease including complicated disease (acute cholecystitis and common bile duct stones) were interviewed using detailed questionnaires to disclose pain patterns and symptoms of indigestion. RESULTS All patients had pain in the right upper quadrant (RUQ) including the upper midline epigastrium. The pain was localized to the right subcostal area in 20% and to the upper epigastrium in 14%, and in the rest (66%) it was more evenly distributed. An area of maximal pain could be defined in 90%. Maximal pain was located under the costal arch in 51% of patients and in the epigastrium in 41%, but in 3% behind the sternum and in 5% in the back. The pain was referred to the back in 63% of the patients. The mean visual analogue scale (VAS) score was very high: 90 mm on a 0-100 scale. A pattern of incipient or low-grade warning pain with a subsequent relatively steady state until subsiding in the same fashion was present in 90% of the patients. An urge to walk around was experienced by 71%. Pain attacks usually occurred in the late evening or at night (77%), with 85% of the attacks lasting for more than one hour and almost never less than half an hour. Sixty-six percent of the patients were intolerant to at least one kind of food, but only 48% to fatty foods. Symptoms of functional indigestion (gastroesophageal reflux, dyspepsia or irritable bowel symptoms) were seen in the vast majority in association with attacks. CONCLUSIONS Gallstone-associated pain follows a certain pattern in the majority of patients. The pain is located in a defined area with a point of maximum intensity, is usually referred, and occurs mainly at night with duration of more than one hour. The majority of patients experience functional indigestion, mainly of the reflux type or dyspepsia.

Title: Political and economic aspects of the transition to universal health coverage. Content: Countries have reached universal health coverage by different paths and with varying health systems. Nonetheless, the trajectory toward universal health coverage regularly has three common features. The first is a political process driven by a variety of social forces to create public programmes or regulations that expand access to care, improve equity, and pool financial risks. The second is a growth in incomes and a concomitant rise in health spending, which buys more health services for more people. The third is an increase in the share of health spending that is pooled rather than paid out-of-pocket by households. This pooled share is sometimes mobilised as taxes and channelled through governments that provide or subsidise care--in other cases it is mobilised in the form of contributions to mandatory insurance schemes. The predominance of pooled spending is a necessary condition (but not sufficient) for achieving universal health coverage. This paper describes common patterns in countries that have successfully provided universal access to health care and considers how economic growth, demographics, technology, politics, and health spending have intersected to bring about this major development in public health.