Both John Kerry and President Bush have promised voters that they will make America “energy independent.” But experts say both sides fall far short of what is necessary for energy independence in the next few decades.
Kerry focuses on conservation efforts, but most agree
Both John Kerry and President Bush have promised voters that they will make America “energy independent.” But experts say both sides fall far short of what is necessary for energy independence in the next few decades.
Kerry focuses on conservation efforts, but most agree his plan is little more than an outline. Bush supports expanded drilling in Alaska to increase domestic oil supply, but the US has only about 3 percent of the world’s oil reserves. At current rates of consumption that would only last 4.5 years.
One independent study says the US could end the need to import any oil from abroad by 2040, but that would require a ten-year investment of $180 billion, and such steps as taxing gas-guzzling vehicles and providing government subsidies for low-income buyers of fuel-efficient autos. Neither candidate is proposing anything close to that.
In many ways, the Bush and Kerry proposals are similar. Both candidates support tax credits for consumers who buy energy-efficient vehicles, greater investment in “clean coal” technologies, the creation of a natural gas pipeline from Alaska, and greater funding for the development of hydrogen vehicles.
The main difference is that Bush would increase the supply of oil by expanding domestic drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Kerry opposes this idea and places greater emphasis on reducing oil consumption through renewable energy and government regulation requiring vehicles to get better fuel mileage. But experts agree that neither candidate’s proposal would achieve independence from foreign suppliers.
October 11, 2004
Kerry: In the last four years, the amount of foreign oil we consume has risen to 61%... As president, I have a real energy plan to harness the full force of America’s technology and make this nation independent of Middle East oil in ten years.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy the US consumed about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2003. Well over half of that total — 56 percent — was imported from abroad, with 20 percent coming from the Persian Gulf alone. (See “supporting documents” below).
Sometimes Kerry speaks of becoming “energy independent,” which would imply a 56% reduction in US oil consumption, and at other times he talks about becoming “independent of Middle East oil,” which would imply a 20% reduction. Bush in his 2003 State of the Union address promised to promote “energy independence for our country.”
Currently the trend is toward more imports, not less. The amount of imported oil has steadily increased since the early 1990s, and the EIA predicts only a slight decline in 2005 due to high gasoline prices, followed by a resumption of the upward trend in imports. EIA forecasts that at current rates by 2025 the US will be importing 70 percent of its oil from abroad.
Kerry’s Fudged Numbers
On October 11 Sen. Kerry gave a speech in Santa Fe, NM devoted to energy independence where he said, “In the last four years, the amount of foreign oil we consume has risen to 61 percent,” which is not accurate. As stated above, the EIA reports that total net imports amount to about 56.1 percent of all oil consumed in the US — not 61 percent as Kerry claimed. A press release issued by the campaign indicates that Kerry used EIA figures on total imports, as opposed to net imports, which does not account for the 1 million barrels of US oil exported daily in 2003. In fact, the EIA predicts that net imports won’t reach 61 percent until the year 2013 (see “supporting documents”).
Kerry has repeatedly blamed Bush for making America “increasingly dependent” on foreign oil in the past four years. But the level of US imports has risen every year since 1991, long before Bush was in the White House.
Myths of Energy Independence
In his 2003 State of the Union address Bush told Congress “our third goal is to promote energy independence for our country.” However, the President hasn’t talked much about energy independence since 2003, when his energy bill became stalled in Congress.
State of the Union 2003
Bush:... Our third goal is to promote energy independence for our country, while improving the environment. I have sent you a comprehensive energy plan to promote energy efficiency and conservation, to develop cleaner technology, and to produce more energy at home.
Kerry picked up the theme in a May 2004 radio address, saying, “we can live in an America that is energy independent.” But industry and environmental experts alike fault both candidates for framing an important debate on energy policy around an impossible, and some say foolish goal of energy independence. Severin Borenstein, the director of the University of California Energy Institute, told FactCheck.org that neither Bush nor Kerry’s proposal could achieve this goal.
Borenstein: I don’t think either candidate is serious about this because the whole thing on energy independence is a red herring. What’s really important here is to wean our dependence on the world oil market. Nobody is talking about short term action that would reduce our oil dependency, cut back demand and bring about that kind of immediate change in our lives.
Kerry Radio Address
May 22, 2004
John Kerry:... We can live in an America that is energy independent... We can live in an America that invests in new technology that will make us energy independent and provide good paying jobs for every American.
Borenstein also said the only way to bring about an immediate change is “an extremely large gas tax.” He n