The changing cryosphere of the Pamir mountains is expected to result in an increasing number of mass movements (e.g. rockslides, debris flows, glacier detachments) and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). GLO
The changing cryosphere of the Pamir mountains is expected to result in an increasing number of mass movements (e.g. rockslides, debris flows, glacier detachments) and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). GLOFs are critically dependent on the characteristics of glacial lakes, such as lakes dammed by glacial moraines, creeping permafrost, and advancing glaciers, while outbursts from even supraglacial lakes can pose a hazard.
Research into the lake forms of the Pamir mountains, however, is essentially non-existent. For example, we know that the Pamir lakes dammed by creeping permafrost have almost no equivalent worldwide. How such lakes will evolve under a warming climate is poorly known, yet crucial for comprehensive and future-orientated GLOF hazard assessment.
As glaciers retreat over the course of the 21st century, existing proglacial lakes are projected to advance, and new lakes will develop in newly-exhumed depressions. The increasing proximity of these lakes to steep mountain headwalls suggests increasing potential for catastrophic rock slides cascading into glacial lakes, leading to outburst events. This is of particular concern given expected permafrost degradation and reduced stability of headwall slopes over time.
Even in the absence of a glacial lake, large rock-ice slides can generate enough water from frictional melting to generate devastating floods far downstream. While our understanding of such events