If the British people vote on 23rd June to leave the European Union, we will still be a member of the EU on the morning of 24th June 2016 and, very probably, still members on 24th June 
If the British people vote on 23rd June to leave the European Union, we will still be a member of the EU on the morning of 24th June 2016 and, very probably, still members on 24th June 2018. Britain is bound by treaty obligations to her partners in the 27 other Member States of the EU and those obligations (and rights) only cease when the existing network of mutual obligations has been unwound. The initial shockwaves of a vote to leave would be felt in financial markets (Britain’s in particular, but probably right across Europe) and in British politics. The future of David Cameron as Prime Minister would be on the line.
Under the terms of the EU Treaty, the British Government would notify the European Council (the collective of EU Heads of Government) of Britain’s intention to withdraw from the EU. How quickly that notification would be made would depend in part on how much domestic political turmoil had been unleashed by the result.
Under Article 50, the European Council would meet but without the British being present. The 27 other EU Heads of Government would decide on the terms of the negotiation with the UK about its departure and would mandate the European Commission to open those negotiations with the UK on their behalf. Article 50 is about the arrangements for a Member State’s withdrawal from the EU, not about its future relationship with its former partners, though the negotiations are, the Article says, to be conducted “taking account of the framework for [the departing Member State’s] future relationship with the Union”.
Two years are allowed for the negotiations, though if all 27 member Governments agree, the period can be extended. At the end of the negotiating period, the 27 decide by a qualified majority vote on the terms of the future relationship. The UK Government would have no vote.
If the UK declined whatever terms were on over, she would leave and become viz-à-viz the EU a third country whose trading relationship with the EU would be governed by WTO rules, which would immediately mean that, where tariffs on EU trade with third countries apply, such as vehicle exports, prices would rise on both UK exports and imports.
In practice, both sides would have an interest in reaching an agreement though it would probably take longer than two years to negotiate. As far as trade in goods is concerned, the UK has a trade deficit with much of the EU and an agreement covering trade in goods would be in everyone’s interest. But Britain has a large surplus in its trade in services which account for some 75% of the UK economy and securing continued access to financial services, in particular, on the same favourable basis as now would be problematic. A vote to leave the EU would be interpreted as, at least in part, a vote against the freedom of movement of people which, alongside freedom of movement for goods, services and capital, is one of the four freedoms which make up the EU single market. It is likely therefore that the British Government would be obliged to seek terms which giving the UK continued open access to the single market while excluding freedom of movement. Such a deal would be unnegotiable. Even if other Member States saw economic advantage in making such a concession, their domestic politics would almost certainly make it impossible for them to do so. The same applies to legislation on workers’ rights. Successive British Governments have argued that issues such as the working hours of employees should be determined at national, not EU, level. Other EU Governments disagree.
It is for this reason that the so-called Norway model of a future UK/EU relationship may not be practicable. Norway (along with Lichtenstein and Iceland) is a member of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) which in turn is part of the European Economic Area (EEA) which gives those three countries access to the EU single market in goods and services. But the EEA members are obliged, in return for that access, to allow freedom of movement for EU citizens. There is a higher proportion of the Norwegian population from EU countries than the proportion of other EU citizens living in the UK. The EEA countries also have to implement social legislation such as the EU Working Time Directive. They also pay an annual financial contribution to the EU which, proportionately, is similar to the per capita net contribution made by the UK. The EEA countries have a right to be consulted on new EU laws affecting the single market. But they do not attend the Council meetings of EU Ministers (where the UK, as a large Member State, presently has 13% of the voting weight), have no representation in the European Parliament (which co-decides EU legislation with the Council and where the UK, as a large Member State, has 10% of the membership) and therefore have no role at all in decisions on the new EU measures which they are obliged to implement.
It therefore seems probable that the UK