As of March 6, 2012 THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER AFTER FUKUSHIMA Paul L Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT (Based in part on a co-authored paper with John E. Parsons MIT
As of March 6, 2012 THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER AFTER FUKUSHIMA Paul L Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT (Based in part on a co-authored paper with John E. Parsons MIT) The views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily reflect the views of MIT, the Sloan Foundation or any other individual or organization with which we are affiliated. FUKUSHIMA I (Daiici) STATS Unit Capacity (net MWe) Design Commercial Operation 1 439 Mw GE Mark I March 1971 2 760 Mw GE Mark I July 1974 3 760 Mw GE Mark I March 1976 4 760 Mw GE Mark I October 1978 5 760 Mw GE Mark I April 1978 6 1067 Mw GE Mark II October 1979 Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/50550192/NIRS-Fact-Sheet-on-FukushimaNuclear-Power-Plant and IAEA PRIS Data Base 2 About 160 miles from Tokyo Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Japan_Nuclear_power_plants_map.gif 3 FUKUSHIMA I (Daiici) Source: INPO 11-0005, page 2 (2012) FUKUSHIMA I (Daiici) dock Artificial harbor 5 Source: INPO (2012), page 5 Source: INPO 2011 Simplified Sequence of Events • • • • • • • • • • • March 11, 2012 at 1446 JST a 9.0 earthquake about 110 miles from Fukushima (6.5 to 7.0 at plant -- about design basis for earthquake) Operating units 1,2,3 (unit 4 in cold shut down) automatically scram, cooling rods are inserted, offstation power is lost, and emergency generators start as planned to provide emergency AC power for cooling, monitoring and emergency equipment March 11, 2012, at about 1527 the first of seven Tsunamis reach Fukushima – Maximum height about 49 feet, exceeding design basis of about 33 feet On-site emergency power lost completely for core cooling and waste fuel ponds and substantial damage to site and flooding of reactor buildings – Two workers on site killed after being trapped in a building after Tsunami and at least three workers received radiation doses above criterion limits – ~20,000 people in Japan killed by Tsunami itself – Substantial destruction of building, transportation, electricity, and communications infrastructure Various efforts to restore cooling to cores and waste fuel pools ensued Evacuations ordered out to 2km, 3km, 10km, 20km, seek shelter out to 30km, and transport and food restrictions imposed 17 million curies of Iodine-131 equivalent radiation released into the air between March 11 and April 5. (378.4 million curies released during Chernobyl accident) High dose rates within the site and near site boundaries and selected “hot spots” further away. Efforts to continue to control radiation releases and bring reactors under control proceeded for 8 months December 16, 2012, all units declared to be in cold shut down, though not through standard methods Cleanup estimated at 40 years and yet to be estimated direct and indirect costs many billions of dollars (TMI II cleanup was about $1 billion + replacement power for TMI 1 for several years, but little indirect economic disruption) Source: Joskow and Yellin (1980) Radiation reading (milliSievert) Single dose, fatal in weeks 10,000 Chernobyl workers who died within a month 6,000 Single dose that could cause radiation sickness 1,000 Accumulated dose that could cause cancer in 5% of people many years later 1,000 Max radiation dose recorded on Fukushima site/hr 400 Recommended limit for radiation workers per year 100 Lowest annual dose at which any level of cancer is clearly evident 100 Full Body CT scan 10 Natural background exposure/hr 2 Radiation per hour detected at