THE assignment of responsibilities to Annex I (industralised) countries according to their contribution to climate change has been a critical issue haunting climate negotiations. Brazil first proposed a "budget" concept on historical emissions at the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin
THE assignment of responsibilities to Annex I (industralised) countries according to their contribution to climate change has been a critical issue haunting climate negotiations. Brazil first proposed a "budget" concept on historical emissions at the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) meet held in July-August 1997. It found surprise approval from the United States at the Third Conference of Parties (COP-3) held in Kyoto in December, 1997.
The Brazilian proposal was probably the most ambitious proposal made for the Kyoto meet. The proposal puts the heaviest burden of "differentiated responsibilities" on historically large emitters. It defines quantitative emission limitation and reduction objectives (QELROS) for adoption by the protocol in Kyoto. The proposal is to limit the actual Annex I greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions to a constant of 1990 levels in the period 1900 to 2000. This is the "effective emissions reference".
The emissions are to decrease regularly from 2000 to 2020, reaching a 30 per cent lower level than 1990 in 2020. This constitutes the "effective emissions ceiling".
Reduction targets for Annex 1 countries, for each of the periods - 2001 -2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015 and 2016-2020, are calculated to equal the difference between the effective emissions reference and the ceiling. The calculation criterion is "differentiated responsibilities" as opposed to a "flat rate", fixed to a 1990 baseline. It was argued that the latter would penalise countries that have maintained relatively low emissions up to the baseline year.
The proposal recognises "net anthropogenic emissions" as the difference between human-induced emissions and human-induced removals by sinks of a given GHG in a year. And "effective emissions" in a given period is defined as the increase in global means surface temperature resulting from an increase in the net anthropogenic emissions of a particular set of gases in a year. The increase is to be over the initial concentration of gases as at the beginning of the calculating period.
In this way the relative responsibility of each Annex I country would to be calculated to equal its effective emissions.
The proposal grants some flexibility to Annex I countries by allowing them to achieve targets individually or jointly. The difference between the emission ceiling and the actual emissions can be used as a measure for trading among themselves. These provisions sought to limit mitigation efforts to domestic action by an Annex I country or Joint Implementation (JI) among each other.
A penalty- US $3.33 for each effective emission unit higher than the ceiling limit - would be slapped for non-compliance. The money thus collected would go into the Clean Development Fund (CDF) and will be used for climate change mitigation and adaptation projects in Non-Annex I countries. The financial resources allotted to the latter would be in proportion to their allocated effective emissions which, will be calculated as it is done for Annex I countries.
It is often implied that Non-Annex I emissions in the future will tend to grow more rapidly than Annex I emissions. The year when the Non-Annex I emissions equals those of Annex I Parties is being taken as the year when the respective responsibilities become equal. However, according to the proposal, this approach does not take into consideration the different historical emission path resulting from the industralisation process and consumption patterns in both groups of countries.
The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), taking the 1992 levels, estimated that whereas annual emissions from the South will equal the North by 2037, the resulting human-induced change in temperature are estimated to be the same only in 2147.
However, Non-Annex I parties stand most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Hence it is important that the developing countries realise that they have a stake in the discussion on "differentiated responsibilities" and methods likely to be adopted by Annex I countries to achieve their targets.
In Kyoto, the Brazilian proposal seemed to find support from many quarters, that were to rewrite it altogether. A group of negotiators from the US, Japan, HU, Brazil, China and other developing countries was set up to draft the outline of the programme. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), as it finally emerged, was just a bank for carbon credits.
Under the CDM, the climate change secretariat will establish a special body with functions similar to a stock exchange. But instead of stocks, "carbon credits" will be sold and bought. Annex I countries or private companies from the North will undertake sustainable projects aimed at reducing GHG levels, mostly in developing nations. When such projects succeed in reducing emissions, the amount of the reduction will be counted as carbon credits. Developing countries can bank their credits at the "carbon credit exchange" which can then be purchased by the North to meet their reduction targets. The purchased carbon credits will be included as emission reductions by the developed countries.
The CDM, therefore, is nothing but JI in a new packaging. Under the protocol, JI would grant credits for investments in projects, but only in developed countries. CDM is to become the option of credits by financing emission reduction projects in developing countries from the year 2000. Moreover, under the CDM, even private companies are allowed to invest in projects. Developed countries will thus continue to evade mitigation at home.
"The Clean Development Fund as has been def