Hurricane Sandy Poses Growing Threat To East Coast
Tropical Storm Sandy turned into Hurricane Sandy on Wednesday morning and the possibility that it will interact with several other weather systems to create a rare and damaging storm for the Mid-Atlantic or New England
Hurricane Sandy Poses Growing Threat To East Coast
Tropical Storm Sandy turned into Hurricane Sandy on Wednesday morning and the possibility that it will interact with several other weather systems to create a rare and damaging storm for the Mid-Atlantic or New England early next week has become more credible since Tuesday, as new computer model runs now show a stormier scenario. However, this is still an extended-range forecast, and it could change dramatically during the next few days.
A range of forecast tracks generated by different runs of the GFS computer model.
Click to enlarge the image.
What forecasters know with relative certainty is that Sandy is going to make landfall in Jamaica on Wednesday, lashing that island with hurricane force winds and heavy rains, before charging northeastward into eastern Cuba. It will also dump heavy rainfall on Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which could cause life-threatening flooding. On Friday, Sandy is expected to be churning through the eastern Bahamas, sparing southeast Florida the worst of its impacts, but still bringing strong winds to the east coast of the state. Tropical storm watches are up for coastal areas of southeastern Florida, including Miami and West Palm Beach.
After Sandy moves away from the Bahamas, the are two main scenarios that meteorologists are wrestling with, and forecasters' dilemmas illustrate the difficulties involved in interpreting computer projections. This is especially the case right now, since one of the most reliable medium-range forecasting models has repeatedly predicted a worst-case scenario for New England, with a storm of hurricane intensity — although with a structure more like a conventional nor'easter — bearing down on Long Island. With a full moon coming up to raise tides, it won’t take much onshore wind to cause significant coastal flooding, and the storm could also bring a large blast of damaging wind inland, along with very heavy rainfall.
Such a scenario looks plausible partly due to an unusual, independent weather patte