ANALYST SAYS USSR WINTER GRAINS HURT BY WEATHER
The Soviet Union's winter grain
crop is likely to have suffered losses due to dry planting
conditions last fall and severe cold this winter, an analyst of
world weather and crop conditions said.
    Grain analyst and meteorologist Gail Martell, author of the
EF Hutton publication "Global Crop News," said in her latest
report that the Soviets may import more grain, possibly wheat,
from the U.S. due to potential crop damage.
    "Compared with last year, the outlook (for the Soviet
winter grain crop) is far more pessimistic," she said. "But
it's still too early to talk about disastrous losses. A lot
will depend on spring weather, not only for the outcome of the
troubled winter grain crop, but also for spring planting."
    Martell said the dry weather conditions last fall probably
prevented optimal seed germination for winter grains. Key wheat
growing areas of the southern Ukraine and North Caucasus
received on 25-35 pct of autumn precipitation, she said.
    The bitter winter cold temperatures -- which broke record
lows that had stood for four decades -- also may have taken its
toll on Soviet winter crops, she said.
    However, she noted that most of the southern grain belt had
ample snow cover, which should have well-insulated the majority
of crop areas from severe frost damage.
    The USSR has already bought 20 to 21 mln tonnes of grains
in the July 1986/June 1987 marketing year, primarily from
Canada, the European Community, Argentina and Australia,
Martell said.
    She cited a number of reasons besides possible crop
problems that might point to additional Soviet import demand.
    Last fall's dry weather may limit livestock grazing on
moisture-depleted pastures, while the cold winter weather
necessitated supplemental feeding to keep livestock healthy.
    Martell was also skeptical of a Soviet claim for a 1986
grain harvest of 210 mln tonnes, and said the Chernobyl
accident may have contaminated more grain than originally
thought and have to be made up with imports.
    However, she said the U.S. remains a supplier of last
resort for the Soviet Union, noting that the Soviets have only
just recently begun their first U.S. grain purchases of the
1986/87 season by buying 2.25 mln tonnes of corn.
    Martell cited USDA statistics showing that since the 1980
grain embargo the U.S. is only a major supplier of grain to the
USSR during years of heavy Soviet demand.
    In 1984/85, the U.S. supplied 41 pct of record Soviet grain
imports of 55.5 mln tonnes. But in 1985/86, the Soviet Union
bought 29.9 mln tonnes of grain and turned to the U.S. for only
24 pct of that total.
    While the USDA Soviet import target for grain for 1986/87
was 22 mln tonnes, many U.S. grain analysts have revised their
estimates of Soviet imports up to 25-28 mln tonnes, she said.
 Reuter
