U.S. SHOULD REASSESS MIDEAST POLICY - ANALYST
The U.S. should reassess
its Mideast policy in light of its rising dependence on
imported oil, according to Charles Ebinger of the Center for
Strategic and International Studies.
     "The prospect of rising dependence on oil imports from the
Gulf, and the recent revelations of the Tower Commission
report, mandate more than ever before the need for a
fundamental reassessment of U.S. interests in the Middle East,"
Ebinger said.
     He remarks were made in an address to the National
Petroleum Refiners Association meeting.
     "Although in the short run it is difficult to see a direct
link between Arab anger and threats to oil supplies, in the
current environment it will be increasingly difficult for
moderate Arab leaders to be seen as friendly to U.S.
interests," Ebinger said.
     Oil traders said threats to oil supplies has kept crude
oil prices strong recently although some believe prices will be
weaker if demand falls in the spring.
    But William Randol, analyst at First Boston Corp, said
crude oil prices will hold  near current levels this spring.
    There will be no spring downturn, said Randol, speaking at
the annual refiner meeting. He said there is a 40 pct chance
that crude oil prices could move higher in the second half of
the year, following an OPEC meeting scheduled for late June.
    He said he expects OPEC will extend its current agreement
to restrict production.
    OPEC will renew its production pricing agreement in June
because the value of the oil exports of the OPEC producers  has
declined along with the U.S. dollar, Randol said.
    OPEC oil exports are priced in U.S. dollars, and the dollar
has fallen about 30 pct in the last 18 months.
    Randol said U.S. crude oil imports will increase 3.5 to
four mln barrels per day by 1990 as consumption rises 1.5 to
two mln bpd, and supplies decline two mln bpd.
 Reuter
