ECONOMIC SPOTLIGHT - ASIAN DROUGHTS
Three geographically diverse droughts
in Asia are being linked by some scientists to a
reintensification of the complex and little-understood El Nino
weather pattern, <Accu-Weather Inc>, a commercial weather
forecasting service, said.
    Rice and wheat farmers in China, wheat and sugarcane
growers in Australia and tea planters in Sri Lanka all face
serious losses to their respective harvests unless rains arrive
in time to break the droughts, offical reports, government
officials and meteorologists said.
    Wen Wei Po, a Hong Kong daily with close Peking links, said
the drought is the worst in over 20 years and some provinces
have been without adequate rainfall for more than seven months.
    Rice planting is threatened in eight provinces, it added.
    Rainfall in the key farming provinces of Henan and Sichuan
was 70 pct below average during February, the lowest figure for
over 20 years, the paper said.
    The dry weather has cut stored water volumes by over 20 pct
compared with last March and lowered the water levels of many
rivers, it added.
    This has resulted in reduced hydro-electric power, causing
shortages to industry and households. The upper reaches of the
Yangtze are at their lowest levels in a century, causing many
ships to run aground, Wen Wei Po said.
    Unusually high temperatures have also been reported across
China, media reports said. The People's Daily said Sichuan has
recorded temperatures three degrees Celsius higher than average
since early February.
    The New China News Agency said the average December
temperature in Harbin in the northeast was six degrees higher
than last December and 14 degrees higher than December 1984.
    Severe drought is affecting about one-third of Sri Lanka
and threatens to reduce the country's tea crop, Ministry of
Plantation Industries officials told Reuters
    In Australia, concern is growing about below-average
rainfall levels in parts of the sugarcane belt along the
Queensland coast and in Western Australia's wheat belt, local
Meteorological Bureau officials said.
    For many farmers and government officials the fear is that
while the present low rainfall does not yet pose a major
threat, the prospect of a dry autumn/winter season when the
wheat crop is in its early stages certainly does, they added.
    Concern is heightened by the memory of the 1982/83 drought
which devastated the wheat crop and coincided with the
occurrence of the barely understood weather phenomenon known as
El Nino, they said.
    Although meteorologists are cautious about linking the
Asia-Pacific region's disrupted weather patterns to any single
cause, El Nino's role is being closely studied, they said.
    Accu-Weather Inc, which specialises in providing data for
agriculture and shipping interests, said each El Nino 'event'
was unique.
    The El Nino does not always produce the same effects and
the present occurrence is much less pronounced than the last
major event in 1982/83, it said.
    El Nino, Spanish for "Christ Child" because it appears around
Christmas, is formed by the action of warm air, bearing clouds
and rain, shifting from the Indonesian archipelago to the coast
of Peru, where it mingles with the cold waters associated with
the Peru current and returns across the Pacific as the trade
winds, meteorologists said.
    The winds, strengthened by El Nino's "pump" effect, raise the
sea level off Australia and Indonesia, they said.
    When the winds drop, the ocean, seeking equilibrium, sends
a surge of warmer water back across the Pacific where it
collides with the cold seas off Peru, they said.
    One effect of this heat exchange is to deflect the
rain-bearing clouds away from Australia and Indonesia into the
Pacific, where they further disrupt other weather patterns.
    The prospects for an end to the droughts vary, Accu-Weather
said.
    China, where the affected areas have received between 40
and 75 pct of normal rainfall, will have to wait for the
May-September rains, it said.
    The May-September rains normally provide the
drought-striken areas with 80 pct of annual rainfall.
    In Australia, areas of Queensland's coastal strip have
received less than half the normal rainfall during the current
wet season, but prospects for increased rains are diminishing
as the rainy season draws to an end.
    In Sri Lanka, the drought has come when rainfall should be
at its maximum for the year. The year's secondary rains usually
occur between April and June, although it is not possible at
this stage to forecast whether they will arrive as usual.
 REUTER
