EARLY MARCH OPEC OUTPUT SEEN WELL BELOW CEILING
OPEC crude oil output in the first few
days of March was running at about 14.7 mln bpd, down from a 16
mln bpd average for February and well below the 15.8 mln bpd
ceiling the group adopted in December, a Reuter survey shows.
    The figures were polled by Reuters correspondents from oil
traders, industry executives and analysts in Europe, the Middle
East, Africa, Latin America and Asia.
    They back recent statements by OPEC ministers that the
group is producing within its ceiling to support the return to
a fixed price system, which came into effect last month.
    OPEC output for the whole of February was about 200,000 bpd
above the ceiling, largely because of overproduction by the
United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, the figures show.
    The UAE, together with the much smaller producer Ecuador,
was also producing above quota in the first days of March, the
survey reveals.
    But such overproduction was compensated for by a sharp fall
in Saudi Arabian output, together with Iran"s inability to
export as much as its quota allows.
    Iraq rejected its OPEC quota of 1.466 mln bpd and produced
1.75 mln bpd in February and early March, the figures showed.
    Saudi output -- excluding movements into stocks -- fell to
3.1 mln bpd in early March from 3.5 mln bpd in February,
against a 4.133 mln bpd quota. The Saudi figures include a
200,000 bpd share of Neutral Zone production.
    Kuwait, which has consistently denied quota violations, was
estimated to be pumping 1.4 mln bpd in February and 1.15 in
early March -- both figures including 200,000 bpd as its share
of Neutral Zone output -- against its 948,000 bpd quota.
    Reports of customer resistance to fixed prices set by some
OPEC states were reflected in output from Qatar and Nigeria,
both substantially under quota in February and early March.
    Qatar's February output was 230,000 bpd, and this fell to
180,000 bpd in early March compared with its 285,000 bpd quota.
    Industry sources say Japanese buyers are resisting Qatar"s
prices and Gulf Arab oil states have pledged to make up for any
shortfall in sales which a fellow Gulf state suffers.
    Nigeria's early March output was about one mln bpd, down
from 1.14 mln bpd in February and its quota of 1.238 mln bpd.
    Industry sources say Nigeria's customers believe its Bonny
grades are overpriced compared with compatible Brent crudes
from the U.K. North Sea.
    Country-by-country production figures are as follows, in
mln bpd -
 COUNTRY        CURRENT        FEBRUARY    QUOTA
 ALGERIA        0.64           0.64        0.635
 ECUADOR        0.26           0.26        0.210
 GABON          0.15           0.15        0.152
 INDONESIA      1.16           1.16        1.133
 IRAN           1.80           2.20        2.255
 IRAQ           1.75           1.75        1.466
 KUWAIT         1.15           1.40        0.948
 LIBYA          0.95           0.95        0.948
 NIGERIA        1.00           1.14        1.238
 QATAR          0.18           0.23        0.285
 SAUDI ARABIA   3.10           3.50        4.133
 UAE            1.10           1.15        0.902
 VENEZUELA      1.50           1.50        1.495
 TOTAL          14.7           16.0        15.8
 REUTER
 Reuter
