ENVOY SEES BRIGHT ECONOMIC FUTURE FOR PHILIPPINES
The Philippines is poised for several
years of stability and economic growth but faces major
long-term problems from its rapidly increasing population, U.S.
Ambassador Stephen Bosworth told Reuters in an interview.
    "Medium-term out to the 1990s I am increasingly optimistic
about this country," he said. "But if you look beyond that... You
are jumping off the edge into the unknown."
    Bosworth, who retires on April 2 after almost four years as
U.S. Ambassador, forecast a real per capita increase in
disposable income of more than four pct in 1987.
    The Philippines has not seen such an increase this decade.
    He said there were reasons to believe the Philippines could
out-perform the world economy by enough to continue to generate
increases in per capita income in the medium term.
    "There is nothing big and dramatic yet and maybe big and
dramatic won't ever happen. But I think foreign investors are
now no longer saying let's wait and see how the political side
turns out," he said.
    Bosworth said much hope had been placed on the land reform
program promised by President Corazon Aquino, but he warned it
was not a complete cure for the country's ills.
    He said even the redistribution of land to tenant farmers
would not be a substitute for the generation of new employment
in the countryside."There is no way even in 1987 that this
country can provide employment growth in farming. Certainly it
is not going to be able to do so in the future," he added.
    "This has to be off-farm employment," he declared.
    Bosworth said the population problem produced major
uncertainties for the future of the country. He said that more
than 60 pct of today's 50 mln people are said to live below the
poverty line and official predictions suggest the population
will double within the next three decades.
    The ambassador said he believed population statistics to be
understated.
    Bosworth said he expected current high domestic liquidity
to be drawn down during the next six months with some
corresponding upward pressure on interest rates, now at about
nine pct.
    He said his predictions only assumed the Aquino government
did not make any big mistakes. They did not assume any great
transformation of the Philippine system.
 REUTER
