U.S. ACREAGE CUTS SEEN LIMITING STOCK BUILD
Sharp cuts this year in U.S. planted
acreage may not make a big dent in the U.S. grain stockpile but
will at least keep grain surpluses from increasing, Agriculture
Department and industry commodity analysts said.
    "The scenario is turning around on stocks. The whole
supply/demand picture could finally be getting more in
balance," a USDA analyst said.
    The USDA prospective plantings report this week indicated
that U.S. farmers will idle 52-55 mln acres in annual acreage
reduction programs this year. An additional 20 mln acres have
been enrolled in the conservation reserve program, bringing
total idled acreage in the U.S. to 72-75 mln acres, almost a
third of the nation's total 235 mln acre crop base.
    Production of wheat, corn and soybeans in 1986/87 will
probably closely match annual usage, limiting any buildup in
stocks, analysts said.
    "It's a substantially different story from last year when
we added 1.5 billion bushels of corn to the stockpile," Vernon
McMinimy, director of commodity research for Staley Co. said.
    Interviewed at an agribusiness education conference here,
McMinimy said that 67.6 mln planted acres of corn will likely
translate into 60 mln harvested acres, and with normal yields,
final production of 6.9 to 7.0 billion bushels.
    McMinimy estimated that total U.S. corn disappearance in
1986/87 could end up at 7.1 billion bushels, possibly resulting
in a 200-million bushel reduction in the current corn stockpile
of 5.45 billion bushels.
    "To say this represents a turn-around is wrong, but we're
at least in a holding pattern," George Hoffman, director of
commodity analysis for Pillsbury said.
    Hoffman said wheat stocks could rise slightly by the end of
1986/87 to 1.9 billion bushels due to "significantly less"
domestic feed use for wheat because of lower corn prices.
    USDA analysts, however, project slightly higher usage and
said wheat stocks will either decrease slightly or at least not
increase. With yearly use at around two billion bushels, next
year's projected crop could be used up, an analyst said.
    "We won't be adding to stocks. Stocks are at a record now,
so if we can begin to touch them even minutely through acreage
reductions, that would be an improvement," an Agriculture
Department wheat analyst said.
 Reuter
