ARGENTINE SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES DOWN FURTHER
Argentine grain producers again
reduced their estimates for the total yield of the 1986/87
soybean crop, which will begin to be harvested in mid-April,
trade sources said.
    They said growers now forecast soybean production this
season at between 7.5 and 7.8 mln tonnes, down from last week's
estimate of 7.7 to eight mln tonnes and the 8.0 to 8.4 mln
tonnes forecast in mid-February.
    The new forecast is still higher than last season's record
total production.
    Private sources put 1985/86 production at a record 7.2 to
7.3 mln tonnes -- 4.2 to 6.4 pct lower than the new forecast
for the current crop. The official figure for 1985/86 is 7.1
mln tonnes, 5.6 to 9.9 pct below this season's new estimates.
    Growers in the past week discovered more empty soybean pods
in the main producing areas of southern Cordoba and Santa Fe
provinces and northern Buenos Aires.
    The crop since January has been hit by high temperatures
and inadequate rainfall. Growers fear they may find more empty
pods and have to further reduce their forecasts of total yield.
    The area sown to soybeans this season was a record 3.7 to
3.8 mln hectares, 10.8 to 13.8 pct higher than the 1985/86
record of 3.34 mln hectares.
    The state of the crop continued to be good in general until
last week but intense, heavy rains since could have caused
damage in areas where rainfall was higher than 100 mm.
    Where the rains were less heavy they were considered
beneficial although too late to improve yield estimates.
    The rains also benefitted maize and sorghum crops in
southern Buenos Aires province but are not expected to
influence production forecasts.
    In other areas, especially western Buenos Aires, where
rainfall was more than 200 mm, parts of the sunflower, maize
and sorghum crops not yet harvested may have been damaged.
    The coarse grain crop harvest was interrupted last week by
rains which also reached over 100 mm in parts of Cordoba, La
Pampa and Santa Fe and almost 90 mm in parts of Entre Rios.
    The area sown with maize this season was between 3.58 and
3.78 mln hectares, two to seven pct less than the 3.85 mln
hectares in 1985/86.
    The yield of 1986/87 maize continued to be forecast at
between 9.9 and 10.1 mln tonnes.
    This estimate is 19.8 to 20.2 pct lower than the 12.4 to
12.6 mln tonnes at which private sources put 1985/86 production
and 21.1 to 22.7 pct lower than the official 12.8 mln tonnes.
    The sunflowerseed harvest has covered 23 to 26 pct of the
area sown and continues in parts of central Buenos Aires
although at a standstill elsewhere due to rain and floods.
    A resumption of full harvesting and assessment of damage is
impossible until rains stop and a spell of a week to 10 days of
sunshine dries the fields.
    The area sown this season was 2.0 to 2.2 mln hectares, down
29.9 to 36.3 pct on last year's record 3.14 mln hectares.
    Sunflowerseed 1986/87 production is still forecast at 2.3
to 2.6 mln tonnes, 34.1 to 41.5 pct below the 1985/86 record of
4.1 mln tonnes.
    The grain sorghum harvest was the least affected by the
rains, advancing steadily in Santa Fe and Cordoba and starting
in La Pampa to cover 14 to 16 pct of the total area sown.
    The area sown was 1.23 to 1.30 mln hectares, 10.3 to 15.2
pct less than the 1.45 mln hectares the previous season.
    Yield estimates remained at 3.2 to 3.5 mln tonnes, 16.7 to
22 pct down on 1985/86 production of 4.1 to 4.2 mln tonnes.
 Reuter
