IWC LIFTS WORLD GRAIN OUTPUT ESTIMATE TO RECORD
The International Wheat Council (IWC)
lifted its estimate for 1986/87 world wheat and coarse grain
production by one mln tonnes to a record 1,377 mln, compared
with 1,351 mln tonnes the previous season.
    In its monthly market report, the IWC said it is leaving
unchanged its forecast of world wheat production for the coming
1987/88 season at between 520 and 530 mln tonnes against a
record 534 mln in 1986/87. The one mln tonne upward revision in
1986/87 wheat production reflects several minor adjustments.
The IWC raised the 1986/87 coarse grain trade figure two mln to
87 mln tonnes. It left wheat trade unchanged at 86 mln.
    The IWC 1986/87 estimate for world trade in wheat and
coarse grain is thus estimated two mln tonnes higher at 173 mln
against 169 mln the previous season with the forecast three mln
rise in Soviet imports offset by small reductions elsewhere.
    The IWC said the area harvested for wheat in 1987/88 is
likely to be down from last year as low world prices and
restrictive national policies measures begin to take effect.
    At least four of the five major exporters expect to see a
drop in wheat sowings without offset in other countries. There
is still potential for even higher average wheat yields but the
IWC said there are increasing signs world output may level off.
    Although it is still early to assess the coarse grain
outlook, the IWC said barley acreage is likely to fall in the
European Community but increase in Canada. U.S. Maize area is
expected lower but oat sowings could rise.
    After damage to its maize crop last year, the Soviet Union
plans to expand this area by as much as 50 pct to over six mln
hectares in a year when many frost damaged wheat fields are
likely to be resown to this and other spring crops. Improved
weather and a further increase in the use of intensive
cultivation methods could therefore see a marked rise in Soviet
maize output in 1987, the IWC said.
    Any reduction in world coarse grain output would be
bolstered by the large carryover stocks from 1986/87, the IWC
said.
    It left its estimates of wheat and coarse grain stocks at
endof different marketing years unchanged at 178 and 210 mln
tonnes, respectively, against 160 and 167 mln a year earlier.
    After record world durum wheat production of 218.8 mln
tonnes last season, the IWC said there are already signs of
another large crop this coming season with higher output
expected in the EC, Canada, the U.S. And North Africa.
 REUTER
