ANALYSTS SAY USSR MAY PREFER NEW CROP U.S. WHEAT
The Soviet Union would likely be more
interested in purchasing new crop wheat than in booking any
grain for immediate shipment if offered a subsidy on U.S.
wheat, an executive with a major grain export company said.
    Lower prices and the desire to delay any big purchases
until the condition of winter and spring crops is better known
make new crop wheat more attractive, said George Hoffman,
director of commodity analysis for The Pillsbury Company.
    "Pillsbury is assuming that they (Soviets) will be offered
a subsidy and that it will be a subsidy that they can respond
to," Hoffman told Reuters in an interview at an agribusiness
education conference here. But if there are too many
constraints placed on a subsidy offer, the USSR will take less
than an anticipated four mln tonnes, he said.
    Hoffman said Pillsbury's internal statistics put Soviet
Union wheat purchases at only two mln tonnes under a subsidy
offer. However, if a subsidy is offered at competitive levels,
Moscow would likely buy more, he said.
    "If we give the Soviets the same deal as the Chinese, I
expect they'll take it," said Vernon McMinimy, director of
commodity research for A.E. Staley Manufacturing Co.
    McMinimy told Reuters spring weather and its impact on
crops will determine how much wheat Moscow would buy under a
subsidy offer.
    Soviet winter crops did not get off to a good start because
of a dry autumn last year, and because of the severe winter
"they probably have had more damage due to winter weather than
normal," McMinimy said.
 Reuter
