CONCERN OVER "EL NINO" IN PERU - USDA REPORT
There are heightened fears that "El
Nino" may be returning to Peru with an intensity approaching the
1983 disaster, which affected the weather on several continents
and caused widespread damage through floods and drought, the
U.S. Agriculture Department's officer in Lima said in a field
report.
    Continued heavy rains in the northern coastal area,
flooding of several major rivers and mud slides have led to
increased concern, the report, dated March 17, said.
    However, it said official sources still believe that this
year's El Nino will have only weak to moderate intensity.
    EL Nino is a phenomenon involving a shift in winds and
waters in the pacific.
    The USDA report said that so far the El Nino now being
experienced has not had an overall negative impact on
agricultural production.
    Excessive rains in the Piura Pima cotton area may reduce
yields by about 20 pct due to excessive growth too early in the
crop cycle.
    Also insect damage to crops could be more extensive where
excessive moisture exists, it said.
    However, the El Nino has resulted in a much improved supply
of irrigation water in the major dams which will improve
prospects for many crucial crops such as rice and corn, and
slow the decline in sugar production, it said.
    If El Nino picks up momentum, Peru's fishing industry could
receive a setback. But trade sources still believe the fish
catch for industrial processing will reach 5.5 mln tonnes in
1987, almost 20 pct above last year, the report said.
    Water temperatures in the northern fishing areas are three
to four degrees centigrade above normal but still not high
enough to drive the fish to cooler southern waters, it said.
    It said there is still the outside chance that El Nino will
intensify and carry on through late March, April and May
causing problems as crops approach harvest.
    "There appears to be no way to project the course of El Nino
-- only time will tell," the report said.
 Reuter
