TRADERS CUT BAHIA TEMPORAO COCOA CROP ESTIMATE
Trade estimates of the coming
May/September temporao harvest in Brazil's main cocoa growing
state of Bahia are now in the 1.5 mln to 2.0 mln 60-kilo bag
range against 2.0 mln to 2.5 mln two weeks ago.
    Traders in the state capital Salvador told Reuters the
effects of a dry period in the first six weeks of the year had
been harsher than thought earlier.
    Although good flowering had followed the onset of rains in
mid-February subsequent pod setting was dissappointing.
    Last year's temporao, also hit by a dry spell, was 2.77 mln
bags. In 1984 severe drought cut the crop to 1.79 mln bags.
    The traders said another factor leading to lower crop
predictions is that many farmers are not caring properly for
plantations because of low returns on their investment.
    Manpower, fertiliser and other costs have been cut back as
farmers feel the pinch of the rise in interest rates over the
past six months coupled with low bean prices.
    If such economies continue into the winter months both the
temporao and the developing October/April main crop could face
serious damage from pod rot attacks on trees which would
normally be treated against the disease.
    Recent very wet weather has already caused some isolated
incidences of pod rot but reports from the growing regions say
these are not yet significant.
    The traders said they expect very low deliveries of
temporao beans in the first three months of the harvest and the
bulk will not appear until the last month, September.
    Despite the low loads, trees are said to be in excellent
condition and recent flowering and pod setting - which will
lead to late temporao/early main crop beans - has been good.
 Reuter
