BP<BP> OFFER RAISES EXPECTATIONS FOR OIL VALUES
British Petroleum Plc's plan to pay
7.4 billion dlrs for less than half of Standard Oil Co has
signalled higher values in the U.S. oil patch, analysts said.
    "I think that BP's bid is a very strong affirmation and
clear signal that they have confidence in the U.S., and they
think the barrel of oil in the ground is going to go higher,"
said Sanford Margoshes of Shearson Lehman Brothers Inc.
    BP earlier today said its U.S. unit planned to tender at 70
dlrs per share for the 45 pct of Standard it does not already
own.
    "It's a 7.4 billion dlr price that (shows) OPEC has won the
war and oil prices are not going to crack," said Prescott, Ball
and Turben analyst Bruce Lazier.
    "Behind that is a huge implication for the rest of the
energy issues out there in the stock market, particularly those
that are acquisition targets," Lazier said.
    One of those mentioned by Lazier was USX Corp, an
energy-steel concern which had been courted by investor Carl
Icahn and drew the attention of Australian Robert Holmes a
Court last year. Rumors continue to swirl around its stock.
    Margoshes said he does not foresee major U.S. oil firms
falling into takeover situations for several years, with the
exception of possibly Amerada Hess Corp <AHC>. He said most of
the majors found partners in the last round of matchmaking
which ended two years ago, and others restructured to the point
that they have become unattractive.
    U.S. oil stocks rallied in response to the offer. Exxon
Corp <XON> rose 1-1/8 to 88-1/2. Chevron Corp <CHV> jumped
1-1/8 to 58-7/8, and Texaco <TX> climbed 1/4 to 37-3/4. Unocal
Corp <UCL> rose 1-3/4, while Occidental Petroleum Corp <OXY>
climbed 1-1/8 to 34-3/4. Amoco Corp <AN> rose 1-3/8 to 83-3/4.
    Standard Oil's stock was up 6-1/4 in heavy trading to
71-1/8. Earlier in the session it had been at a high of 72-1/4.
Wall Street has speculated British Petroleum may boost its
offer by several dlrs per share, but the company maintained it
would not raise the 70 dlr bid.
    British Petroleum stock rose 2-1/4 to 59-5/8.
    Analysts said the fact British Petroleum made such a bid in
the first place indicates that the British oil giant has
changed its outlook for the oil industry.
    Analysts said last year British Petroleum held one of the
more bearish positions on oil prices.
    "They said the real price of oil would stay at 15 dlrs (a
barrel) for several years, and I think they beat a hasty
retreat from that point of view," Margoshes said.
    "They are more appropriately today looking more
optimistically. I believe they are looking at 18 dlrs
(long-term)...also in their heart of hearts they believe that
will be exceeded," Margoshes said.
    The U.S. benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate was
trading today around 18.60 dlrs per barrel.
    Analysts said British Petroleum might have been able to buy
up the rest of Standard Oil for about 50 dlrs per share when
oil prices were falling last year.
    They said Standard Oil's brightest asset is its slightly
more than 50 pct ownership of the Alaskan Prudhoe Bay oil
field. Analysts also said the company has other interests in
the Alaskan North Slope.
    Analysts said the Standard investment is extremely
attractive to BP because the U.S. is the largest oil market and
has hard-to-replace reserves.
    "I think it just fits in with their long-range plans to
increase their position in the U.S. market," Dean Witter
analyst Eugene Nowak said.
    Analysts said it also raises BP's visibility ahead of the
British government's announced disposal of 31.7 pct of BP
stock. The U.K. government said it would dispose of the holding
sometime in the year beginning April one.
    After acquiring all of Standard, most of BP's reserves
would be in the U.S., but only about six pct of its stock is
held in the U.S.
    "The only way they can sell all that stock is to move it
into the United States. No other market can handle all that
stock," said L.F. rothschild analyst Rosario Ilacqua.
    In 1986, Standard Oil had net losses of 345 mln dlrs on
revenues of 10.02 billion dlrs, compared to a profit the year
earlier of 308 mln dlrs on revenues of 13.82 billion dlrs.
    
 Reuter
