ECUADOR ECONOMY SEEN CONTRACTING IN 1987
The Ecuadorean economy, struck by an
earthquake last month, will contract an estimated four pct in
1987 and its crude oil output will drop by 42 pct, the
government's national development council (Conade) said.
    A Conade report, dated April 21 and obtained, said that the
country's gross domestic product (gdp) would fall by an
estimated four pct compared to 1.5 pct growth last year. Conade
functions as the country's main planning institution.
    Crude output will fall to 61.2 mln barrels in 1987 from
105.6 mln in 1986, Conade said. It forecast exports of 22.9 mln
of crude and derivatives against 63.3 mln last year.
    The March five earthquake killed up to 1,000 people and
caused an estimated one billion dlrs in damage. It paralyzed
Ecuador's crude output because it ruptured the country's main
pipeline from Lago Agrio, at the heart of jungle oilfields, to
the Pacific Ocean port of Balao.
    It will take until at least end-July to repair the line and
return output to normal levels, oil officials said. Ecuador
output was about 250,000 barrels per day before the tremor.
    Conade forecast total 1987 exports of 1.77 billion dlrs,
572 mln dlrs of which would be oil and derivatives.
    Imports were forecast at 1.70 billion dlrs. Total 1986
exports were 2.18 billion dlrs, of which 979 mln dlrs were
crude and derivatives, with total imports 1.66 billion dlrs.
    Conade predicted that payments on Ecuador's 8.16 billion
dlrs foreign debt will be limited to 947 mln dlrs this year
against 1.489 billion dlrs last year. Conade's projected
ceiling on payments is not legally binding.
    The current account balance of payments deficit was seen at
934 mln dlrs in 1987. It was 696 mln dlrs in 1986.
 Reuter
