PESSIMISM MOUNTS OVER BAHIAN TEMPORAO COCOA CROP
Pessimism over the effects of a
prolonged dry spell on the coming Bahian temporao cocoa crop is
rising with trade forecasts generally in the 2.0 mln to 2.5 mln
bag range against 2.5 mln to 3.0 mln a fortnight ago.
    Trade sources told Reuters from the state capital of
Salvador that despite scattered rains since mid-February, which
broke a six week drought, plantations have not picked up as
hoped and very little cocoa is expected to be gathered in the
first three months of the May/September crop.
    The sources said arrivals from May through July might only
reach around 600,000 bags whereas in normal years a figure of
1.0 mln to 1.5 mln bags might be expected.
    Arrivals from then should start to pick up sharply as pods
from current flowering are gathered. However, the sources noted
a late temporao is always more susceptible to pod rot, which
flourishes if conditions turn cold and humid, and which is more
likely from late July on.
    This year's crop is doubly susceptible because poor prices
mean farmers were not encouraged to invest in fertilisers and
insecticides and are also unlikely to treat against pod rot.
    A severe attack of pod rot can cause the loss of over
500,000 bags in a very short period, one source said.
    Because of the increased exposure to pod rot damage,
estimates of the final outcome of the temporao are extremely
vulnerable and production could easily drop to below the 2.0
mln bag mark if the disease hits.
    Although flowering was good following the start of the
rains, pod setting was not up to expectations, possibly because
the drought had caused a drop in the insect population which
pollinates flowers, the sources said.
    However, reports from farms indicate moisture levels are
now generally back to near normal levels and that current
flowering and pod setting is good, which should result in
mature fruit from August through September.
    The sources said they expect no break in the harvesting of
beans between the end of the temporao and the beginning of the
main crop, which officially starts on October 1.
    "The cut-off date is completely artificial. If things go
well from now on we should see heavy harvesting without a break
from August through November or even December," one said.
    If predictions of a 2.0 to 2.5 mln bag temporao prove
accurate this would be below the 2.7 mln bag average for the
past 10 years. The last poor temporao was in 1984 when
prolonged drought and later pod rot cut production to 1.79 mln
bags, the lowest since 1974.
    Good growing conditions the following year produced a
temporao of 3.12 mln bags, just below the 1983 3.17 mln bag
record, while last year's output, which also suffered some
drought damage, was 2.77 mln bags.
    Figures for the coming temporao might be distorted upwards
by the inclusion of undeclared current main crop beans.
    The sources said large quantities of beans are believed to
have been undeclared from this year's record total harvest and
they were unsure how much of this would be unregistered by the
end of the official crop year on April 30.
    Recent official arrivals figures have been swollen by the
inclusion of beans which had been delivered previously to port
warehouses but not declared.
    Because of the high turnover of beans this year,
significant amounts have deteriorated because they were stored
too long at the back of warehouses. Some of these are expected
to be held for mixing in with early temporao arrivals.
    With official arrivals figures for the 1986/87 temporao and
main crops totalling over 6.1 mln bags, and over seven weeks
still to go to the end of the year, the total outturn should be
at least a record 6.5 mln bags if all production is declared,
the sources said.
    This would compare with the previous record set last year
of 6.03 mln.
    However, there is no way of telling how many current crop
beans will be declared after the May 1 start of the temporao
and thus the true size of the 1986/87 harvest may never be
officially registered.
 Reuter
