BANK SEES MODEST RECOVERY IN GULF ARAB ECONOMIES
The Emirates Industrial Bank has
predicted a modest economic recovery in the Gulf Arab states
following higher oil revenues.
    A bank study, carried by the Emirates news agency WAM, said
total oil revenues of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries were likely to reach 39 billion dlrs this year from
33.5 billion in 1986.
    The GCC groups Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
    The bank said the improvement would result from higher oil
prices made possible by last December's OPEC accord to restrain
overall group production.
    These curbs have pushed up oil prices from around eight
dollars a barrel in mid-1986 to around 18 dlrs.
    "All signs point to the possibility of a modest recovery in
the economies of these (GCC) countries, although this expected
growth will not be similar to that of the (1970s) boom years,"
the study said.
    It added, however, that GCC states would experience higher
budget deficits this year because of needs arising from past
recession and the difficulty of making fresh spending cuts.
    The study said the combined GCC bugdet deficits would rise
to 23.2 billion dlrs from 17.9 billion last year.
    It said lower oil exports cut the GCC states' combined
trade surplus to 18 billion dlrs in 1986 from 21.5 billion in
1985.
    The UAE suffered a 19.5 pct drop in gross domestic product
to 77.6 billion dirhams last year from 96.4 billion in 1985, it
added.
 REUTER
