TOKYO BROKERS SEE SHARP EARLY STOCK PRICE FALL
Stock market analysts polled before Tokyo's
market opened on Tuesday said Wall Street's dramatic fall on
Monday was overdone and although Tokyo would fall drastically
at the opening it might stabilise later.
    Factors affecting the Tokyo market are not the same as
those in New York, they said.
    "Tokyo's market is completely different from New York," said
a senior analyst at Nomura Securities. "We have no computer
(program) selling, and much more stable share ownership than in
New York."
    "The discount rate in Japan cannot rise," the senior Nomura
analyst said.
    He said the Tokyo Exchange's 225-share index may fall 1,000
points on Tuesday, because of basic concern. It dropped 620.18
points to 25,746.56 on Monday.
    But he said a 1,000 point fall would be nothing compared to
New York. "New York overreacted, the dollar is rising -- that
should be a positive sign for New York," he said.
    The Tokyo Stock Exchange opens from 0900 local time (0000
GMT) to 1500 local (0600 GMT).
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 508 points (or 22.5
pct) to 1,738 on Monday, its biggest ever one day decline in
both absolute and percentage terms.
    Simon Smithson, a Kleinwort Benson International share
analyst, said Tokyo's market was likely to free fall in morning
trading but perhaps would stabilise later. He too predicted a
drop of perhaps 1,000 points in the index today.
    But he said overall economic conditions in the U.S. And
Japan were different. "The problems that pushed down the New
York market, like the (U.S.) budget deficit, trade deficit and
slow economic growth, do not exist in Japan," Smithson said.
    However, a stocks fund manager at a major trust bank made a
more gloomy prediction. "The situation is different in the two
markets, but you cannot ignore New York," he said.
    "Foreigners will be selling and the index funds will be
selling," he said.
    A fund manager at another Japanese trust bank said Monday's
New York fall was completely out of the range of expectations.
    "All we can do is wait now and see what happens. There seem
to be no factors which would stop the fall. There is no way we
can invest now," he said.
 REUTER
