TECHNOLOGY/ALTERNATIVES TO IBM SOFTWARE STANDARD
In the fast paced personal computer
industry, millions can be made in six months, and such an
opportunity may exist now for companies seeking to capitalize
on the delay of a new IBM software standard.
    When International Business Machines Corp <IBM> announced
its new generation of personal computers, the PS/2 family, in
April, it also decided to establish a new operating system for
the machines, a death sentence for the billions of dollars of
software now in use on the existing system.
    Because IBM is the world's largest computer company - some
70 pct of the world's computers bear the IBM logo - most
industry analysts, and even IBM's competitors, expect that
within two years the new operating system, called OS/2, will be
as commonplace as the current standard, MS-DOS, is now.
    "By 1989, at least one half to 60 pct of all personal
computers will be sold with OS/2," predicted George Colony,
president of the consulting firm Forrester Research Inc.
    But until then there is an opportunity, some analysts said,
for firms selling advanced versions of MS-DOS, specialised
multi-tasking software packages and Unix, an alternative to
MS-DOS developed by American Telephone and Telegraph Co <T>
that has developed a following among engineers and the federal
government.
    OS-2, which IBM is developing with Microsoft Corp, the
author of MS-DOS, will not be ready for another six months. IBM
said last week that the product is on schedule but analysts and
other software developers are skeptical, since delays in major
new software products are commonplace.
    Initial acceptance of the new system will most likely be
hindered by the disgruntlement of hardware and software vendors
alike, who would prefer to keep making products that work with
tried and true MS-DOS, according to Paul Cubbage, software
analyst with the market research firm Dataquest Inc.
    Compaq, IBM's major personal computer competitor, has
already said it will stick with the MS-DOS standard. Compaq
president Rod Canion said recently their will be no "automatic
mass migration" to OS/2. "(Advanced MS-DOS) applications will
continue to meet a far broader set of users needs than OS/2
will supply long after it becomes available," he said.
    Cubbage acknowledged that "it will probably be a year or
more before any really useful applications are available for
OS-2," creating opportunities for multi-tasking programs. "But
there comes a time when the memory limits of those gets to
you," he said.
    IBM's new operating system was as big an event to the
computer industry as the PS-2 announcement itself. The new
computers, the most powerful of which will use Intel Corp's
fast 80386 microprocessor, are expected to rejuvenate the
sagging sales of the personal computer industry and already
gave a big boost to IBM.
    Company officials said last week that 250,000 PS/2s were
shipped in the 2-1/2 months since their introduction and IBM
expect record pc sales ths year as a result.
    The enthusiasm for the PS-2 is particularly striking since
the full potential of the powerful computers cannot be tapped
until a new operating system or other high level software is
available, analysts said.
    OS-2 will allow users to work on many different programs,
or tasks, at once on a personal computer, ideally without any
slowdown in operation, a capability the industry has long
strived for.
    Microsoft is already promising alternatives to OS-2, in
particular an advanced version of its Windows multitasking
program, which is used in conjunction with MS-DOS.
    Microsoft chairman Bill Gates has suggested an advanced
version of the program, Windows 386, will be announced in
September and available six to eight weeks later, at a price of
100 dlrs and 300 dlrs. OS/2 is expected to cost 325 dlrs.

    Some software developers have said the the program,
designed for 80386-based personal computers, may even be
superior to OS/2 in allowing users to multitask applications
without disruption.
     But several analysts commented that what users really want
is a multi-taksing operating system for 80386-based personal
computers, and so far that desire has been met primarily by a
small Atlanta software publisher, The Software Link Inc. In
late spring the company announced PC-MOS/386, a multi-tasking,
multiuser operating system that is compatible with MS/DOS and
works on 80386-based computers.
    The company said it filled 2,500 orders in the first four
weeks of availability and expects shipments to reach 40,000 by
year end.
    International Data Corp analyst Will Zachmann said Unix
could be the most promising alternative to OS/2, even once the
IVM system is available.
    IBM did not endorse Unix for any of its PS/2 models,
although it did say that it would announce a version of its
Advanced Interactive Executive (AIX), a Unix compatible
operating system.
    But the federal government requires Unix compatability for
most of its computer contracts, it is almost certain that other
companies will provide Unix-style operating systems for the IBM
systems.
    ATT itself two weeks ago introduced a version of Unix that
is compatible with the 80386 microprocessor, although not IBM's
computer specifically.
    Analysts saw the announcement as a move to get Unix
accepted as a strong alternative to OS/2 before the IBM system
has a chance to take off.
 Reuter
