GERMAN 1987 TRADE SURPLUS SEEN STAYING HIGH
West Germany's foreign trade and current
account surpluses are expected to decline only slightly in 1987
from their record levels last year, economists said.
    Figures released by the Federal Statistics Office in
Wiesbaden showed that in the first five months of the year the
trade surplus grew 15.7 pct compared with the same 1986 period
to 47.2 billion marks. The current account surplus rose 9.8 pct
to 33.7 billion marks.
    West Germany reported a 1986 current account surplus of 77
billion marks and a trade surplus of 113 billion marks.
    Economists had expected the rise of the mark from year-ago
levels to have started biting more strongly into the nominal
surpluses.
    The real surpluses are already declining. The Statistics
Office said after cheaper import prices were taken into
consideration, West Germany's imports by volume rose by more
than three pct in the first five months.
    Exports had risen by only about one pct in real terms. The
government has pointed to this stronger real rise in imports
than exports when rejecting international pressure to boost
domestic consumption.
    The Statistics Office said West Germany's trade surplus had
risen in May to 10.6 billion marks, from 8.9 billion in April
and 8.1 billion in May last year.
    The current account surplus had risen to 7.5 billion marks
in May from 6.1 billion in April and 6.3 billion marks a year
earlier.
    Exports rose strongly from the year-ago month by 6.6 pct to
43.31 billion marks, while May imports of 32.76 billion marks
had risen only 0.8 pct in the year.
    The Ifo economic research institute in Munich said in a
study published today that the trade surplus would probably
only fall to around 101 billion marks this year, compared with
the 113 billion mark 1986 record.
    It predicted a fall in the current account surplus to 61
billion marks from 77 billion.
    Ifo said this reduction would only be "a small step on the
way to reducing imbalances in the world economy."
    Peter Pietsch, an economist with Commerzbank AG, predicted
a 1987 trade surplus of 100 billion marks. He saw a slightly
higher current account surplus than Ifo of possibly 65 billion
marks.
    Helmut Henschel, with Westdeutsche Landesbank, put the 1987
trade surplus at 95 billion marks and the current account
surplus at 60 billion marks.
    He said the strong rise in exports in May from the year-ago
period was surprising but it probably reflected calendar
factors.
 REUTER
